Science.gov

Sample records for 11-year sunspot cycle

  1. Relationship between the north-south asymmetry of sunspot formation and the amplitude of 11-year solar activity cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Latyshev, S. V.; Olemskoy, S. V.

    2016-07-01

    A relationship between the north-south asymmetry of sunspot formation and the amplitude of 11-year cycles has been established from the RGO/USAF/NOAA data on sunspots. It is shown that the higher the solar cycle amplitude, the smaller the absolute value of the north-south asymmetry. The revealed pattern has been investigated in a numerical dynamo model with irregular variations of the alpha-effect.

  2. Predicting the Sunspot Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    The 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered by an amateur astronomer in 1844. Visual and photographic observations of sunspots have been made by both amateurs and professionals over the last 400 years. These observations provide key statistical information about the sunspot cycle that do allow for predictions of future activity. However, sunspots and the sunspot cycle are magnetic in nature. For the last 100 years these magnetic measurements have been acquired and used exclusively by professional astronomers to gain new information about the nature of the solar activity cycle. Recently, magnetic dynamo models have evolved to the stage where they can assimilate past data and provide predictions. With the advent of the Internet and open data policies, amateurs now have equal access to the same data used by professionals and equal opportunities to contribute (but, alas, without pay). This talk will describe some of the more useful prediction techniques and reveal what they say about the intensity of the upcoming sunspot cycle.

  3. The 11-year cycle in human births

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randall, Walter; Moos, Walter S.

    1993-06-01

    The annual numbers of human births were analyzed with regard to an 11-year cycle. The annual values were obtained from seven different regions: Australia, Germany, England and Wales, New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland, and the USA. Fifty-five annual values were obtained from each region for the years 1930 to 1984, comprising approximately five sunspot cycles. For each region the annual values were formed into 5 by 11 matrices; the eleven column means obtained were standardized, and plotted. A periodic regression technique, utilizing the fitting functions of the Fourier series, was used to evaluate the temporal order in the column means. Eleven-year rhythms were found and compared with solar and geophysical variables. Correlations were found with sunspots and solar flares, with terrestrial measures of magnetic disturbances (the magnetic indices derived from the K-index), and with temperature. The correlation of conceptions with the 11-year solar cycle may be a potential guide in the selection of further variables for the control and regulation of the rhythms in human conceptions.

  4. Hindcast and forecast of grand solar minina and maxima using a three-frequency dynamo model based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies modulating the 11-year sunspot cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2016-04-01

    The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The two side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle can be associated to a quasi-11-year sunspot solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. These frequencies and other oscillations appear once the model is non-linearly processed. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900- 1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with

  5. Origin of grand minima in sunspot cycles.

    PubMed

    Choudhuri, Arnab Rai; Karak, Bidya Binay

    2012-10-26

    One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes ((14)C and (10)Be) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11,000 yrs, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question of how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and in the meridional circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data of the last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing grand minima. PMID:23215173

  6. Cosmogenic Isotope Variability During the Maunder Minimum: Normal 11-year Cycles Are Expected

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poluianov, S. V.; Usoskin, I. G.; Kovaltsov, G. A.

    2014-12-01

    The amplitude of the 11-year cycle measured in the cosmogenic isotope 10Be during the Maunder Minimum is comparable to that during the recent epoch of high solar activity. Because of the virtual absence of the cyclic variability of sunspot activity during the Maunder Minimum this seemingly contradicts an intuitive expectation that lower activity would result in smaller solar-cycle variations in cosmogenic radio-isotope data, or in none, leading to confusing and misleading conclusions. It is shown here that large 11-year solar cycles in cosmogenic data observed during periods of suppressed sunspot activity do not necessarily imply strong heliospheric fields. Normal-amplitude cycles in the cosmogenic radio-isotopes observed during the Maunder Minimum are consistent with theoretical expectations because of the nonlinear relation between solar activity and isotope production. Thus, cosmogenic-isotope data provide a good tool to study solar-cycle variability even during grand minima of solar activity.

  7. A comparative look at sunspot cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, R. M.

    1984-01-01

    On the basis of cycles 8 through 20, spanning about 143 years, observations of sunspot number, smoothed sunspot number, and their temporal properties were used to compute means, standard deviations, ranges, and frequency of occurrence histograms for a number of sunspot cycle parameters. The resultant schematic sunspot cycle was contrasted with the mean sunspot cycle, obtained by averaging smoothed sunspot number as a function of time, tying all cycles (8 through 20) to their minimum occurence date. A relatively good approximation of the time variation of smoothed sunspot number for a given cycle is possible if sunspot cycles are regarded in terms of being either HIGH- or LOW-R(MAX) cycles or LONG- or SHORT-PERIOD cycles, especially the latter. Linear regression analyses were performed comparing late cycle parameters with early cycle parameters and solar cycle number. The early occurring cycle parameters can be used to estimate later occurring cycle parameters with relatively good success, based on cycle 21 as an example. The sunspot cycle record clearly shows that the trend for both R(MIN) and R(MAX) was toward decreasing value between cycles 8 through 14 and toward increasing value between cycles 14 through 20. Linear regression equations were also obtained for several measures of solar activity.

  8. Solar rotation and the sunspot cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

    1990-01-01

    Reexamination of the published sunspot rotation rates from Mount Wilson for the period from 1921 to 1982 suggests that the sun rotates more rapidly when there are fewer sunspots. This behavior is seen over the course of each cycle with the most rapid rotation usually observed at sunspot minimum. It is also seen in hemispheric differences with the southern hemisphere, having fewer spots, rotating more rapidly than the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, the rotation rate averaged over each cycle also shows that the sun rotates more rapidly during cycles with fewer sunspots and less sunspots area. This inverse correlation between sunspot area and rotation rate suggests that during the Maunder minimum the sun may have rotated slightly faster than is observed today.

  9. Comparison of sunspot properties in cycles 23 and 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezaei, Reza; Schmidt, Wolfgang; Beck, Christian

    Sunspots form by coalescence of small-scale magnetic elements and pores in magnetic flux emergence areas. By observing recently formed sunspots just after their initial growth and before substantial decay, one samples a magnetic signal which has been least disturbed by granulation. Properties of the emergence events have a direct impact on the results. Failed active regions, e.g. the ones which cannot form a sunspot, are a clear example: in several cases, they would harbor enough magnetic flux to form a small sunspot but fail to do so. Another way to evaluate secular variations of flux emergence events is to quantify long-term trends of sunspot properties. The 11-year solar magnetic activity cycle has been known for centuries. During this time the activity level changed dramatically from the Maunder minimum (1650-1700) to the Modern maximum in mid 20-th century. The extended minimum of the last solar cycle alerted solar physicist about possible long-term variation in the solar magnetic activity. While some argue that the Sun was unusually active in mid 20-th century, others find it unusually inactive now. This caused speculations whether the solar activity cycle is overlaid with a long-term decline that may lead to another grand minimum in the near future. Some extrapolations predicted that there will be no sunspots in the next cycle. Detailed observations of sunspot properties were performed only in the last few cycles. Such spectropolarimetric observations enable us to accurately derive the magnetic field strengths of spots and their physical properties. We present measurements of sunspot intensity, area, and magnetic field strength and compare the present cycle 24 with the previous one. We analyze a sample of about 400 sunspots observed from 1999 until 2014 with the Tenerife Infrared Polarimeter at the German Vacuum Tower Telescope as well as with the Facility Infrared Spectropolarimeter of the Dunn Solar Telescope of the NSO. The magnetic field strength is

  10. Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Kim Kwee

    2016-01-01

    An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269

  11. Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Kim Kwee

    2016-02-01

    An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle.

  12. An Examination of Sunspot Number Rates of Growth and Decay in Relation to the Sunspot Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2006-01-01

    On the basis of annual sunspot number averages, sunspot number rates of growth and decay are examined relative to both minimum and maximum amplitudes and the time of their occurrences using cycles 12 through present, the most reliably determined sunspot cycles. Indeed, strong correlations are found for predicting the minimum and maximum amplitudes and the time of their occurrences years in advance. As applied to predicting sunspot minimum for cycle 24, the next cycle, its minimum appears likely to occur in 2006, especially if it is a robust cycle similar in nature to cycles 17-23.

  13. On the Importance of Cycle Minimum in Sunspot Cycle Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

    1996-01-01

    The characteristics of the minima between sunspot cycles are found to provide important information for predicting the amplitude and timing of the following cycle. For example, the time of the occurrence of sunspot minimum sets the length of the previous cycle, which is correlated by the amplitude-period effect to the amplitude of the next cycle, with cycles of shorter (longer) than average length usually being followed by cycles of larger (smaller) than average size (true for 16 of 21 sunspot cycles). Likewise, the size of the minimum at cycle onset is correlated with the size of the cycle's maximum amplitude, with cycles of larger (smaller) than average size minima usually being associated with larger (smaller) than average size maxima (true for 16 of 22 sunspot cycles). Also, it was found that the size of the previous cycle's minimum and maximum relates to the size of the following cycle's minimum and maximum with an even-odd cycle number dependency. The latter effect suggests that cycle 23 will have a minimum and maximum amplitude probably larger than average in size (in particular, minimum smoothed sunspot number Rm = 12.3 +/- 7.5 and maximum smoothed sunspot number RM = 198.8 +/- 36.5, at the 95-percent level of confidence), further suggesting (by the Waldmeier effect) that it will have a faster than average rise to maximum (fast-rising cycles have ascent durations of about 41 +/- 7 months). Thus, if, as expected, onset for cycle 23 will be December 1996 +/- 3 months, based on smoothed sunspot number, then the length of cycle 22 will be about 123 +/- 3 months, inferring that it is a short-period cycle and that cycle 23 maximum amplitude probably will be larger than average in size (from the amplitude-period effect), having an RM of about 133 +/- 39 (based on the usual +/- 30 percent spread that has been seen between observed and predicted values), with maximum amplitude occurrence likely sometime between July 1999 and October 2000.

  14. Relativistic electrons in the outer-zone: An 11 year cycle, their relation to the solar wind

    SciTech Connect

    Belian, R.D.; Cayton, T.E.; Christensen, R.A.; Ingraham, J.C.; Meier, M.M.; Reeves, G.D.; Lazarus, A.J.

    1994-12-31

    We examine Los Alamos energetic electron data from 1979 through the present to show long term trends in the trapped relativistic electron populations at geosynchronous-earth-orbit (GEO). Data is examined from several CPA and SOPA instruments to cover the interval from 1979 through June 1994. It is shown that the higher energy electrons fluxes (E > 300 keV) displayed a cycle of {approx}11 years. In agreement with other investigators, we also show that the relativistic electron cycle is out of phase with the sunspot cycle. We compare the occurrences of relativistic electrons and solar wind high speed streams and determine that on the time scale of 15 years the two do not correlate well. The long-term data set we provide here shows a systematic change of the electron energy spectrum during the course of the solar cycle. This information should be useful to magnetospheric scientists, model designers and space flight planners.

  15. Three-halves law in sunspot cycle shape

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bracewell, R. N.

    1988-01-01

    Evidence is provided of a nonlinear effect consisting of a 3/2 power law in annual mean sunspot numbers since 1700. With correction for this nonlinearity, it has been possible to reproduce theoretically the well-known Waldmeier relation between rise time and maximum sunspot number, in addition to other features of the 11 yr sunspot curve such as a break in the decline of strong 11 yr cycles. Eighteenth century sunspot numbers are found to fit theoretical semicycle shapes well. The present model suggests an upward travelling 22 yr wave launched by a reciprocating magnetic oscillator deep in the sun.

  16. Sunspot Activity Near Cycle Minimum and What it Might Suggest for Cycle 24, the Next Sunspot Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    In late 2008, 12-month moving averages of sunspot number, number of spotless days, number of groups, area of sunspots, and area per group were reflective of sunspot cycle minimum conditions for cycle 24, these values being of or near record value. The first spotless day occurred in January 2004 and the first new-cycle, high-latitude spot was reported in January 2008, although old-cycle, low-latitude spots have continued to be seen through April 2009, yielding an overlap of old and new cycle spots of at least 16 mo. New-cycle spots first became dominant over old-cycle spots in September 2008. The minimum value of the weighted mean latitude of sunspots occurred in May 2007, measuring 6.6 deg, and the minimum value of the highest-latitude spot followed in June 2007, measuring 11.7 deg. A cycle length of at least 150 mo is inferred for cycle 23, making it the longest cycle of the modern era. Based on both the maximum-minimum and amplitude-period relationships, cycle 24 is expected to be only of average to below-average size, peaking probably in late 2012 to early 2013, unless it proves to be a statistical outlier.

  17. Very large geomagnetic disturbance during sunspot cycle 21: A prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sargent, H. H., III

    1979-01-01

    Evidence is presented which suggests that very large geomagnetic disturbances (350 gammas or greater at an invariant magnetic latitude of 50 degrees) occur once or twice per sunspot cycle, on the average. There is also some tendency for these disturbances to group in large odd numbered sunspot cycles similar to the current cycle, cycle 21. No such disturbance was noted during the past cycle although a series of major solar flares was observed in August 1972. At least one very large geomagnetic disturbance is expected during the current cycle; a prediction with perhaps serious consequences for electric power companies.

  18. Revisiting the Sunspot Number. A 400-Year Perspective on the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clette, Frédéric; Svalgaard, Leif; Vaquero, José M.; Cliver, Edward W.

    2014-12-01

    Our knowledge of the long-term evolution of solar activity and of its primary modulation, the 11-year cycle, largely depends on a single direct observational record: the visual sunspot counts that retrace the last 4 centuries, since the invention of the astronomical telescope. Currently, this activity index is available in two main forms: the International Sunspot Number initiated by R. Wolf in 1849 and the Group Number constructed more recently by Hoyt and Schatten (Sol. Phys. 179:189-219, 1998a, 181:491-512, 1998b). Unfortunately, those two series do not match by various aspects, inducing confusions and contradictions when used in crucial contemporary studies of the solar dynamo or of the solar forcing on the Earth climate. Recently, new efforts have been undertaken to diagnose and correct flaws and biases affecting both sunspot series, in the framework of a series of dedicated Sunspot Number Workshops. Here, we present a global overview of our current understanding of the sunspot number calibration.

  19. A Bayesian Analysis of the Correlations Among Sunspot Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Y.; van Dyk, D. A.; Kashyap, V. L.; Young, C. A.

    2012-12-01

    Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for which observational records are available. Here we carry out a sophisticated statistical analysis of the sunspot record that reaffirms these correlations, and sets up an empirical predictive framework for future cycles. An advantage of our approach is that it allows for rigorous assessment of both the statistical significance of various cycle features and the uncertainty associated with predictions. We summarize the data into three sequential relations that estimate the amplitude, duration, and time of rise to maximum for any cycle, given the values from the previous cycle. We find that there is no indication of a persistence in predictive power beyond one cycle, and we conclude that the dynamo does not retain memory beyond one cycle. Based on sunspot records up to October 2011, we obtain, for Cycle 24, an estimated maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number of 97±15, to occur in January - February 2014 ± six months.

  20. The lost sunspot cycle: New support from 10Be measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karoff, C.; Inceoglu, F.; Knudsen, M. F.; Olsen, J.; Fogtmann-Schulz, A.

    2015-03-01

    It has been suggested that the shortage in the number of spots on the surface of the Sun between 1790 and 1830, known as the Dalton minimum, contained an extra cycle that was not identified in the original sunspot record by Wolf. Though this cycle was shorter and weaker than the average solar cycle, it shifted the magnetic parity of the solar magnetic field of the earlier cycles. This extra cycle is sometimes referred to as the "lost solar cycle" or "cycle 4b". Here we reanalyse 10Be measurements with annual resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project in order to investigate if the hypothesis regarding a lost sunspot cycle is supported by these measurements. Specifically, we make use of the fact that the Galactic cosmic rays, responsible for forming 10Be in the Earth's atmosphere, are affected differently by the open solar magnetic field during even and odd solar cycles. This enables us to evaluate if the numbering of cycles earlier than cycle 5 is correct. For the evaluation, we use Bayesian analysis, which reveals that the lost sunspot cycle hypothesis is likely to be correct. We also discuss whether this cycle 4b is a real cycle or a phase catastrophe, and what implications this has for our understanding of stellar activity cycles in general.

  1. Development of sunspot cycle 24 past its peak in 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahluwalia, H. S.

    The smooth sunspot numbers for cycle 24 have been increasing slowly since its onset in December 2008. As per our prediction, cycle 24 reached its peak (smooth) sunspot numbers in May 2013 and is only half as active as cycle 23; it lingered near its peak while the polarity of the magnetic field at solar poles reversed over a period of more than a year; its descent toward the minimum has set in. We report on the present status of the descending phase of cycle 24 and compare its timeline with those of the previous ten cycles (14-23) of the twentieth century, with particular emphasis on those of cycles 5 and 14 that led to the start of two recent grand minima, namely the Dalton and the Gleissberg minima respectively. The implications for cycle 25 and 26 are discussed.

  2. CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AND SUNSPOTS-SOLAR CYCLE PERSPECTIVE

    SciTech Connect

    Ramesh, K. B.

    2010-03-20

    Recent studies have indicated that the occurrence of the maxima of coronal mass ejection (CME) rate and sunspot number (SSN) were nearly two years apart. We find that the two-year lag of CME rate manifests only when the SSN index is considered and the lag is minimal (two-three months) when the sunspot area is considered. CMEs with speeds greater than the average speed follow the sunspot cycle much better than the entire population of CMEs. Analysis of the linear speeds of CMEs further indicates that during the descending phase of the solar cycle the loss of magnetic flux is through more frequent and less energetic CMEs. We emphasize that the magnetic field attaining the nonpotentiality that represents the free energy content, rather than the flux content as measured by the area of the active region, plays an important role in producing CMEs.

  3. Nighttime morphology of vertical plasma drifts at Ouagadougou during different seasons and phases of sunspot cycles 20-22

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adebesin, B. O.; Rabiu, A. B.; Adeniyi, J. O.; Amory-Mazaudier, C.

    2015-11-01

    The nighttime morphology of vertical plasma drift (Vd) inferred from ground-based measurements of the F layer height at Ouagadougou (12.4°N, 358.6°E) in the African Equatorial Ionization Anomaly trough was investigated. The observation covers four seasons, four sunspot cycle phases, annual, and 11 year sunspot cycle (SC) variations of the SCs 20-22 spanning 1966-1998 and a first attempt of such study. The annual mean peak magnitudes of Vd during the prereversal enhancement (PRE) and minimum reversal periods exhibit the 11 year sunspot cycle evolution with the sunspot number (Rz). The PRE peak/Rz and reversal peak/Rz relationships are 98.7% and 84.8%, respectively. PRE peak in June solstice appears 1 h later than for other seasons and is attributed to a decrease in the equatorial zonal wind/conductivity gradient. The highest PRE magnitude and downward perturbation drifts near dusk appear during the equinoxes and lowest in June solstice for all cycles. There is semiannual asymmetry in the variation of Vd during all cycles of the PRE event with peaks in March and September/October. A remarkable feature is the consistent local presunrise drift enhancement for two SCs 20 and 21, which is not a regular feature of the equatorial ionosphere. The rate of inhibition of scintillation effect increases with decreasing phase of sunspot activity and maximizes during the solstices. Both the PRE and minimum reversal peak magnitudes are influenced by the phase of sunspot cycle. Ouagadougou data in this study had shown reliable drift characteristics and can be integrated into the African regional empirical drift model.

  4. The relationship of air temperature variations over the northern hemisphere during the secular and 11-year solar cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ryzhakov, L. Y.; Tomskaya, A. S.

    1978-01-01

    A comparison was made of air temperature anomaly maps for the months of January and July against a background of high and low secular solar activity, with and without regard for the 11 year cycle. By comparing temperature variations during the 11 year and secular cycles, it is found that the 11 year cycle influences thermal conditions more strongly than the secular cycle, and that temperature differences between extreme phases of the solar cycles are greater in January than in July.

  5. Forecasting Solar Cycle 24 using the relationship between cycle length and maximum sunspot number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watari, S.

    2008-12-01

    The parameters characterizing a solar cycle are its length and its maximum sunspot number. There is a good negative correlation (correlation coefficient is -0.661) between the length of a solar cycle and the maximum monthly smoothed sunspot number of the next cycle. This suggests that the length is an important parameter in determining the variations of solar activity. Using this relationship, I forecast lower solar activity in Cycle 24 than in Cycle 23.

  6. The 11 years solar cycle as the manifestation of the dark Universe

    DOE PAGES

    Zioutas, K.; Semertzidis, Y.; Tsagri, M.; Papaevangelou, T.; Hoffmann, D. H.H.; Anastassopoulos, V.

    2014-11-26

    Sun’s luminosity in the visible changes at the 10-3 level, following an 11 years period. In X-rays, which should not be there, the amplitude varies even ~105 times stronger, making their mysterious origin since the discovery in 1938 even more puzzling, and inspiring. We suggest that the multifaceted mysterious solar cycle is due to some kind of dark matter streams hitting the Sun. Planetary gravitational lensing enhances (occasionally) slow moving flows of dark constituents towards the Sun, giving rise to the periodic behaviour. Jupiter provides the driving oscillatory force, though its 11.8 years orbital period appears slightly decreased, just asmore » 11 years, if the lensing impact of other planets is included. Then, the 11 years solar clock may help to decipher (overlooked) signatures from the dark sector in laboratory experiments or observations in space.« less

  7. The 11 years solar cycle as the manifestation of the dark Universe

    SciTech Connect

    Zioutas, K.; Semertzidis, Y.; Tsagri, M.; Papaevangelou, T.; Hoffmann, D. H.H.; Anastassopoulos, V.

    2014-11-26

    Sun’s luminosity in the visible changes at the 10-3 level, following an 11 years period. In X-rays, which should not be there, the amplitude varies even ~105 times stronger, making their mysterious origin since the discovery in 1938 even more puzzling, and inspiring. We suggest that the multifaceted mysterious solar cycle is due to some kind of dark matter streams hitting the Sun. Planetary gravitational lensing enhances (occasionally) slow moving flows of dark constituents towards the Sun, giving rise to the periodic behaviour. Jupiter provides the driving oscillatory force, though its 11.8 years orbital period appears slightly decreased, just as 11 years, if the lensing impact of other planets is included. Then, the 11 years solar clock may help to decipher (overlooked) signatures from the dark sector in laboratory experiments or observations in space.

  8. Cyclicity of Suicides May Be Modulated by Internal or External - 11-Year Cycles: An Example of Suicide Rates in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dimitrov, B. D.; Atanassova, P. A.; Rachkova, M. I.

    2009-12-01

    Multicomponent cyclicity in monthly suicides (periods T = 18, 46 and 198 months) was found and close similarity with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) suggested by Dimitrov in 1999. The current report aimed at scrutinizing the results on suicide annual cyclicity (seasonality) in Slovenia as reported by Oravecz et al in 2007 as well as at analyzing suicide data from Finland in this regard. We postulated that: (i) trans-year (12-24 months) or far-trans-year long-term cycles of suicides might interfere with their seasonality; and (ii) associations to environmental factors with alike cyclicity (e.g. HGA, temperature) could exist. Annual suicide incidence from Oulu, Finland over years 1987-1999 was analyzed. Annual data on solar activity (sunspot index Rz or Wolf number), planetary geomagnetic activity (aa-index) and local daily mean temperatures were used. The exploration of underlying chronomes (time structures) was done by periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation. We analyzed temporal dynamics, revealed cyclicity, decomposed and reconstructed significant cycles and correlated the time series data. Suicide seasonality in Slovenia during the years 1971-2002 (n=384 months, peak May-June) was considered and, although some discrepancies and methodological weaknesses were suspected, we further hypothesized about trans-year and/or longer (far-transyear) cyclic components. Suicide incidence data from Finland indicated that the 12.5-year cyclic component (or trend) was almost parallel (coherent) to the cyclic heliogeophysical parameters and similar to local decreasing temperature dynamics. Also, 8-year and 24.5-year cycles were revealed. A correlation between the 12.5-year suicide cycle and 11-year solar cycle was found (R=0.919, p=0.000009). Above findings on cyclicity and temporal correlations of suicides with cyclic environmental factors, even being still preliminary, might not only allow for further more specific analyses. They might also corroborate

  9. Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing.

    PubMed

    Meehl, Gerald A; Arblaster, Julie M; Matthes, Katja; Sassi, Fabrizio; van Loon, Harry

    2009-08-28

    One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together. We show that the two mechanisms act together to enhance the climatological off-equatorial tropical precipitation maxima in the Pacific, lower the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle, and reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface.

  10. Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing.

    PubMed

    Meehl, Gerald A; Arblaster, Julie M; Matthes, Katja; Sassi, Fabrizio; van Loon, Harry

    2009-08-28

    One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together. We show that the two mechanisms act together to enhance the climatological off-equatorial tropical precipitation maxima in the Pacific, lower the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle, and reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface. PMID:19713524

  11. On the Relation Between Spotless Days and the Sunspot Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Spotless days are examined as a predictor for the size and timing of a sunspot cycle. For cycles 16-23 the first spotless day for a new cycle, which occurs during the decline of the old cycle, is found to precede minimum amplitude for the new cycle by about approximately equal to 34 mo, having a range of 25-40 mo. Reports indicate that the first spotless day for cycle 24 occurred in January 2004, suggesting that minimum amplitude for cycle 24 should be expected before April 2007, probably sometime during the latter half of 2006. If true, then cycle 23 will be classified as a cycle of shorter period, inferring further that cycle 24 likely will be a cycle of larger than average minimum and maximum amplitudes and faster than average rise, peaking sometime in 2010.

  12. Sunspot Sizes and the Solar Cycle: Analysis Using Kodaikanal White-light Digitized Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, Sudip; Banerjee, Dipankar

    2016-10-01

    Sizes of the sunspots vary widely during the progression of a solar cycle. Long-term variation studies of different sunspot sizes are key to better understand the underlying process of sunspot formation and their connection to the solar dynamo. The Kodaikanal white-light digitized archive provides daily sunspot observations for a period of 90 years (1921–2011). Using different size criteria on the detected individual sunspots, we have generated yearly averaged sunspot area time series for the full Sun as well as for the individual hemispheres. In this Letter, we have used the sunspot area values instead of sunspot numbers used in earlier studies. Analysis of these different time series show that different properties of the sunspot cycles depend on the sunspot sizes. The “odd–even rule” double peaks during the cycle maxima and the long-term periodicities in the area data are found to be present for specific sunspot sizes and are absent or not so prominent in other size ranges. Apart from that, we also find a range of periodicities in the asymmetry index that have a dependency on the sunspot sizes. These statistical differences in the different size ranges may indicate that a complex dynamo action is responsible for the generation and dynamics of sunspots with different sizes.

  13. Evidence for climate variations induced by the 11-year solar and cosmic rays cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruckman, William; Ramos, Elio

    2010-02-01

    We analyzed data from PSMSL monthly mean sea level seeking correlations between sea level fluctuations and the solar and cosmic rays 11 year cycle. The data reveals decadal variability that could be causally connected to the solar and cosmic rays cycle, since these periodic changes are correlated. It is also found that the solar (cosmic rays) cycle correlates (anti-correlates) with the mean global surface temperature anomaly. A probable explanation of the above correlations is that the solar intensity and cosmic rays variations induce oscillations in the average temperature and precipitation, with corresponding changes in the continental water and snow accumulation. Thus, for instance, a higher than average snow and water over land, and lower temperatures produce oceans thermal contraction and lower mass, implicating lower mean sea level.

  14. Communicating the science of the 11-year sunspot cycle to the general public

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choudhuri, A. R.

    2015-03-01

    Astrophysics is one branch of science which excites the imagination of the general public. Pioneer science popularizers like George Gamow and Fred Hoyle wrote on different aspects of astrophysics. However, of late, we see a trend which I find disturbing. While it has become extremely fashionable to write popular science books on cosmology, other areas of astrophysics are grossly neglected.

  15. Chaos in the sunspot cycle - Analysis and prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mundt, Michael D.; Maguire, W. Bruce, II; Chase, Robert R. P.

    1991-01-01

    The variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. The results are compared to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior.

  16. Spot cycle reconstruction: an empirical tool. Application to the sunspot cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, A. R. G.; Cunha, M. S.; Avelino, P. P.; Campante, T. L.

    2015-08-01

    Context. The increasing interest in understanding stellar magnetic activity cycles is a strong motivation for the development of parameterized starspot models which can be constrained observationally. Aims: In this work we develop an empirical tool for the stochastic reconstruction of sunspot cycles, using the average solar properties as a reference. Methods: The synthetic sunspot cycle is compared with the sunspot data extracted from the National Geophysical Data Center, in particular using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This tool yields synthetic spot group records, including date, area, latitude, longitude, rotation rate of the solar surface at the group's latitude, and an identification number. Results: Comparison of the stochastic reconstructions with the daily sunspot records confirms that our empirical model is able to successfully reproduce the main properties of the solar sunspot cycle. As a by-product of this work, we show that the Gnevyshev-Waldmeier rule, which describes the spots' area-lifetime relation, is not adequate for small groups and we propose an effective correction to that relation which leads to a closer agreement between the synthetic sunspot cycle and the observations. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  17. Egeson's (George's) transtridecadal weather cycling and sunspots.

    PubMed

    Halberg, F; Cornélissen, G; Bernhardt, K-H; Sampson, M; Schwartzkopff, O; Sonntag, D

    2010-09-01

    In the late 19th century, Charles Egeson, a map compiler at the Sydney Observatory, carried out some of the earliest research on climatic cycles, linking them to about 33-year cycles in solar activity, and predicted that a devastating drought would strike Australia at the turn of the 20th century. Eduard Brückner and William J. S. Lockyer, who, like Egeson, found similar cycles, with notable exceptions, are also, like the map compiler, mostly forgotten. But the transtridecadal cycles are important in human physiology, economics and other affairs and are particularly pertinent to ongoing discusions of climate change. Egeson's publication of daily weather reports preceded those officially recorded. Their publication led to clashes with his superiors and his personal life was marked by run-ins with the law and, possibly, an implied, but not proven, confinement in an insane asylum and premature death. We here track what little is known of Egeson's life and of his bucking of the conventional scientific wisdom of his time with tragic results.

  18. Egeson's (George's) transtridecadal weather cycling and sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halberg, F.; Cornélissen, G.; Bernhardt, K.-H.; Sampson, M.; Schwartzkopff, O.; Sonntag, D.

    2010-09-01

    In the late 19th century, Charles Egeson, a map compiler at the Sydney Observatory, carried out some of the earliest research on climatic cycles, linking them to about 33-year cycles in solar activity, and predicted that a devastating drought would strike Australia at the turn of the 20th century. Eduard Brückner and William J. S. Lockyer, who, like Egeson, found similar cycles, with notable exceptions, are also, like the map compiler, mostly forgotten. But the transtridecadal cycles are important in human physiology, economics and other affairs and are particularly pertinent to ongoing discusions of climate change. Egeson's publication of daily weather reports preceded those officially recorded. Their publication led to clashes with his superiors and his personal life was marked by run-ins with the law and, possibly, an implied, but not proven, confinement in an insane asylum and premature death. We here track what little is known of Egeson's life and of his bucking of the conventional scientific wisdom of his time with tragic results.

  19. Meridional Flow Variations in Cycles 23 and 24: Active Latitude Control of Sunspot Cycle Amplitudes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Upton, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    We have measured the meridional motions of magnetic elements observed in the photosphere over sunspot cycles 23 and 24 using magnetograms from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI. Our measurements confirm the finding of Komm, Howard, and Harvey (1993) that the poleward meridional flow weakens at cycle maxima. Our high spatial and temporal resolution analyses show that this variation is in the form of a superimposed inflow toward the active latitudes. This inflow is weaker in cycle 24 when compared to the inflow in 23, the stronger cycle. This systematic modulation of the meridional flow can modulate the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle through its influence on the Sun's polar fields.

  20. On the Relationship Between Spotless Days and the Sunspot Cycle: A Supplement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2006-01-01

    This study provides supplemental material to an earlier study concerning the relationship between spotless days and the sunspot cycle. Our previous study, Technical Publication (TP)-2005-213608 determined the timing and size of sunspot minimum and maximum for the new sunspot cycle, relative to the occurrence of the first spotless day during the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and the last spotless day during the rising portion of the new cycle. Because the number of spotless days (NSD) rapidly increases as the cycle nears sunspot minimum and rapidly decreases thereafter, the size and timing of sunspot minimum and maximum might be more accurately determined using a higher threshold for comparison, rather than using the first and last spotless day occurrences. It is this aspect that is investigated more thoroughly in this TP.

  1. Some peculiarities in longitude distribution of sunspot groups over last four eleven-year solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rybak, Aleksey

    2016-06-01

    This paper considers a longitude distribution of sunspot groups over 1982-2013, using data from the National Geophysical Data Center (Boulder, USA). The space-time distribution of sunspot groups is analyzed in coordinate sectors calculated from heliographic longitudes of the groups. A longitude extent of a coordinate sector is compared to the average size of one active region (30-40°). Then, in each coordinate sector, evolutionary activity of sunspot groups is summarized according to Malde classification indices throughout the observation period. The longitude distribution of large sunspot groups made in such a way does not reveal anticorrelation between Northern and Southern hemispheres in sunspot cycle 23.

  2. An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2004-01-01

    Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

  3. On the ambiguous nature of the 11-year solar cycle signal profile in stratospheric ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhomse, Sandip; Chipperfield, Martyn; Damadeo, Robert; Zawodny, Joe; Ball, William; Feng, Wuhu; Hossaini, Ryan; Mann, Graham; Haigh, Joana

    2016-04-01

    We use three satellite datasets and simulations from a 3-D chemical transport model, forced by three different solar flux datasets, to diagnose the 11-year solar cycle signal (SCS) in stratospheric ozone. Our analysis shows that compared to SAGE II v6.2, a reduced upper stratospheric SCS in SAGE II v7.0 is due to a more realistic ozone-temperature anti-correlation. Overall, all model simulations show a positive SCS in the lower and middle stratosphere and negligible SCS in the upper stratosphere in agreement with SAGE v7.0, HALOE and MLS data. The model simulations show a differently structured SCS over different time periods covered by the satellite datasets, which helps to resolve some observed differences. However, despite the improvements to the SAGE II data, due to remaining biases in current observational and reanalysis datasets, accurate quantification of the influence of solar flux variability on the climate system remains an open scientific question.

  4. The response of chemistry and climate to the 11-year solar cycle in UM-UKCA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarz, Ewa; Telford, Paul; Maycock, Amanda; Abraham, Luke; Braesicke, Peter; Pyle, John

    2014-05-01

    It is now generally agreed that the UV variability associated with the 11-year solar cycle leads to changes in ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere. In addition, a range of observational and modelling studies suggest that such changes are the starting point for a chain of processes (including feedbacks) resulting in circulation changes in many areas of the atmosphere. However, precise details of the interactions between chemistry and meteorology induced by solar variability remain under question. In our study, we use a version of the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model with consistent spectrally-resolved solar variability. While the solar cycle in heating rates has been applied with the method used in HadGEM2-ES, fine spectrally-resolved solar variability has been uniquely incorporated into the Fast-JX photolysis scheme. We perform two 50-year-long perpetual year solar maximum and solar minimum integrations and complement them with a three member ensemble of a transient 1960-2010 integration in which boundary conditions correspond by and large to the CCMI Ref-C1 scenario. We show how the inferred solar signals vary between the individual experiments. This indicates high natural variability and the resulting contamination of the solar signal with contributions from other processes as well as the existence of possible non-linearities between the solar cycle and other atmospheric forcings. Therefore, we highlight that long data series are needed to ensure correct attribution of the modelled and observed anomalies. In addition, we present results from two perpetual year experiments in which the solar cycle was applied exclusively in either short-wave heating or photolysis. We find large non-linearities in the modelled anomalies as compared to the realistic integration with both modulations included. This highlights the subtle nature of the dynamical response to the solar cycle forcing and indicates the need for interactive chemistry with a detailed photolysis

  5. Using the 11-year Solar Cycle to Predict the Heliosheath Environment at Voyager 1 and 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, A.; Opher, M.; Provornikova, E.; Richardson, J. D.; Toth, G.

    2015-12-01

    As Voyager 2 moves further into the heliosheath, the region of subsonic solar wind plasma in between the termination shock and the heliopause, it has observed an increase of the magnetic field strength to large values, all while maintaining magnetic flux conservation. Dr. Burlaga will present these observations in the 2015 AGU Fall meeting (abstract ID: 59200). The increase in magnetic field strength could be a signature of Voyager 2 approaching the heliopause or, possibly, due to solar cycle effects. In this work we investigate the role the 11-year solar cycle variations as well as magnetic dissipation effects have on the heliosheath environments observed at Voyager 1 and 2 using a global 3D magnetohydrodynamic model of the heliosphere. We use time and latitude-dependent solar wind velocity and density inferred from SOHO/SWAN and IPS data and solar cycle variations of the magnetic field derived from 27-day averages of the field magnitude average of the magnetic field at 1 AU from the OMNI database as presented in Michael et al. (2015). Since the model has already accurately matched the flows and magnetic field strength at Voyager 2 until 93 AU, we extend the boundary conditions to model the heliosheath up until Voyager 2 reaches the heliopause. This work will help clarify if the magnetic field observed at Voyager 2 should increase or decrease due to the solar cycle. We describe the solar magnetic field both as a dipole, with the magnetic and rotational axes aligned, and as a monopole, with magnetic field aligned with the interstellar medium to reduce numerical reconnection within the heliosheath, due to the removal of the heliospheric surrent sheet, and at the solar wind - interstellar medium interface. A comparison of the models allows for a crude estimation of the role that magnetic dissipation plays in the system and whether it allows for a better understanding of the Voyager 2 location in the heliosheath.

  6. A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvador, R. J.

    2013-11-01

    Using many features of Ian Wilson's Tidal Torque theory, a mathematical model of the sunspot cycle has been created that reproduces changing sunspot cycle lengths and has an 85% correlation with the sunspot numbers from 1749 to 2013. The model makes a reasonable representation of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr, placing all the solar minimums in their right time periods. More importantly, I believe the model can be used to forecast future solar cycles quantitatively for 30 yr and directionally for 100 yr. The forecast is for a solar minimum and quiet Sun for the next 30 to 100 yr. The model is a slowly changing chaotic system with patterns that are never repeated in exactly the same way. Inferences as to the causes of the sunspot cycle patterns can be made by looking at the model's terms and relating them to aspects of the Tidal Torque theory and, possibly, Jovian magnetic field interactions.

  7. Properties of sunspot cycles and hemispheric wings since the 19th century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leussu, Raisa; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Arlt, Rainer; Mursula, Kalevi

    2016-08-01

    Aims: The latitudinal evolution of sunspot emergence over the course of the solar cycle, the so-called butterfly diagram, is a fundamental property of the solar dynamo. Here we present a study of the butterfly diagram of sunspot group occurrence for cycles 7-10 and 11-23 using data from a recently digitized sunspot drawings by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe in 1825-1867, and from RGO/USAF/NOAA(SOON) compilation of sunspot groups in 1874-2015. Methods: We developed a new, robust method of hemispheric wing separation based on an analysis of long gaps in sunspot group occurrence in different latitude bands. The method makes it possible to ascribe each sunspot group to a certain wing (solar cycle and hemisphere), and separate the old and new cycle during their overlap. This allows for an improved study of solar cycles compared to the common way of separating the cycles. Results: We separated each hemispheric wing of the butterfly diagram and analysed them with respect to the number of groups appearing in each wing, their lengths, hemispheric differences, and overlaps. Conclusions: The overlaps of successive wings were found to be systematically longer in the northern hemisphere for cycles 7-10, but in the southern hemisphere for cycles 16-22. The occurrence of sunspot groups depicts a systematic long-term variation between the two hemispheres. During Schwabe time, the hemispheric asymmetry was north-dominated during cycle 9 and south-dominated during cycle 10.

  8. Meridional Flow Variations in Cycles 23 and 24: Active Latitude Control of Sunspot Cycle Amplitudes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Upton, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    We have measured the meridional motions of magnetic elements observed in the photosphere over sunspot cycles 23 and 24 using magnetograms from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI. Our measurements confirm the finding of Komm, Howard, and Harvey (1993) that the poleward meridional flow weakens at cycle maxima. Our high spatial and temporal resolution analyses show that this variation is in the form of a superimposed inflow toward the active latitudes. This inflow is weaker in cycle 24 when compared to the inflow in 23, the stronger cycle. This systematic modulation of the meridional flow should also modulate the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle through its influence on the Sun's polar fields. The observational evidence and the theoretical consequences (similar to those of Cameron and Schussler (2012)) will be described.

  9. Meridional Flow Variations in Cycles 23 and 24: Active Latitude Control of Sunspot Cycle Amplitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Upton, L.

    2013-07-01

    We have measured the meridional motions of magnetic elements observed in the photosphere over sunspot cycles 23 and 24 using magnetograms from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI. Our measurements confirm the finding of Komm, Howard, and Harvey (1993) that the poleward meridional flow weakens at cycle maxima. Our high spatial and temporal resolution analyses show that this variation is in the form of a superimposed inflow toward the active latitudes. This inflow is weaker in cycle 24 when compared to the inflow in 23, the stronger cycle. This systematic modulation of the meridional flow should also modulate the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle through its influence on the Sun’s polar fields. The observational evidence and the theoretical consequences (similar to those of Cameron and Schussler (2012)) will be described. Komm, Howard, and Harvey (1993) Solar Phys. 147, 207. Cameron and Schussler (2012) Astron. Astrophys. 548, A57.

  10. Measurements of sunspot group tilt angles for solar cycles 19-24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isik, Seda; Isik, Emre

    2016-07-01

    The tilt angle of a sunspot group is a critical quantity in the surface transport magnetic flux on global scales, playing a role in the solar dynamo. To investigate Joy's law for four cycles, we measured the tilt angles of sunspot groups for solar cycles 19-24. We have developed an IDL routine, which allows the user to interactively select and measure sunspot positions and areas on the solar disc, using the sunspot drawing database of Kandilli Observatory. The method is similar to that used by others in the literature, with the exception that sunspot groups were identified manually, which has improved the accuracy of the tilt angles. We present cycle averages of the tilt angle and compare the results with the existing data in the literature.

  11. Sunspots, Space Weather and Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    Four hundred years ago this year the telescope was first used for astronomical observations. Within a year, Galileo in Italy and Harriot in England reported seeing spots on the surface of the Sun. Yet, it took over 230 years of observations before a Swiss amateur astronomer noticed that the sunspots increased and decreased in number over a period of about 11 years. Within 15 years of this discovery of the sunspot cycle astronomers made the first observations of a flare on the surface of the Sun. In the 150 years since that discovery we have learned much about sunspots, the sunspot cycle, and the Sun s explosive events - solar flares, prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections that usually accompany the sunspots. These events produce what is called Space Weather. The conditions in space are dramatically affected by these events. Space Weather can damage our satellites, harm our astronauts, and affect our lives here on the surface of planet Earth. Long term changes in the sunspot cycle have been linked to changes in our climate as well. In this public lecture I will give an introduction to sunspots, the sunspot cycle, space weather, and the possible impact of solar variability on our climate.

  12. Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Jager, C.; Duhau, S.

    2009-02-01

    Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years).

  13. A SOLAR CYCLE LOST IN 1793-1800: EARLY SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS RESOLVE THE OLD MYSTERY

    SciTech Connect

    Usoskin, Ilya G.; Mursula, Kalevi; Arlt, Rainer; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.

    2009-08-01

    Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observations, the quality of the sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784-1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18-19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e., the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790s. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793-1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in the traditional Wolf sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of the lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This Letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, and solar dynamo theories, as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.

  14. A Solar Cycle Lost in 1793-1800: Early Sunspot Observations Resolve the Old Mystery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Usoskin, Ilya G.; Mursula, Kalevi; Arlt, Rainer; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.

    2009-08-01

    Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observations, the quality of the sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784-1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18-19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e., the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790s. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793-1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in the traditional Wolf sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of the lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This Letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, and solar dynamo theories, as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.

  15. Sunspot analysis and prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steyer, C. C.

    1971-01-01

    An attempt is made to develop an accurate functional representation, using common trigonometric functions, of all existing sunspot data, both quantitative and qualitative, ancient and modern. It is concluded that the three periods of high sunspot activity (1935 to 1970, 1835 to 1870, and 1755 to 1790) are independent populations. It is also concluded that these populations have long periods of approximately 400, 500, and 610 years, respectively. The difficulties in assuming a periodicity of seven 11-year cycles of approximately 80 years are discussed.

  16. An Examination of Selected Geomagnetic Indices in Relation to the Sunspot Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2006-01-01

    Previous studies have shown geomagnetic indices to be useful for providing early estimates for the size of the following sunspot cycle several years in advance. Examined this study are various precursor methods for predicting the minimum and maximum amplitude of the following sunspot cycle, these precursors based on the aa and Ap geomagnetic indices and the number of disturbed days (NDD), days when the daily Ap index equaled or exceeded 25. Also examined is the yearly peak of the daily Ap index (Apmax), the number of days when Ap greater than or equal to 100, cyclic averages of sunspot number R, aa, Ap, NDD, and the number of sudden storm commencements (NSSC), as well the cyclic sums of NDD and NSSC. The analysis yields 90-percent prediction intervals for both the minimum and maximum amplitudes for cycle 24, the next sunspot cycle. In terms of yearly averages, the best regressions give Rmin = 9.8+/-2.9 and Rmax = 153.8+/-24.7, equivalent to Rm = 8.8+/-2.8 and RM = 159+/-5.5, based on the 12-mo moving average (or smoothed monthly mean sunspot number). Hence, cycle 24 is expected to be above average in size, similar to cycles 21 and 22, producing more than 300 sudden storm commencements and more than 560 disturbed days, of which about 25 will be Ap greater than or equal to 100. On the basis of annual averages, the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24 will be either 2006 or 2007.

  17. Asymmetric Statistical Properties of the Solar Cycle 23 Deduced from Sunspots, Plages and Flare Occurrences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkova, Valentina; Zharkov, S.

    2006-06-01

    The statistical properties of sunspot, active regions (plages) and filament distributions obtained from the automated Solar Feature Catalogues (SFC, http://solar.inf.brad.ac.uk) and their relation to flare distributions are presented for 1996-2005. We present distributions of sunspot numbers with given areas for different phases and the whole solar cycle 23. Statistical sunspot and plage area distributions revealed a strong North-South asymmetry of about 0.2-0.6 for sunspots, plages and flare occurrences with two basic periods of about 9 and 2.5 years. The distributions of sunspot and flare occurrences at different latitudes and longitudes in Northern and Southern hemispheres and their magnetic tilts are compared with their total and excess magnetic fields during the whole period of observations. The application of these results to the solar dynamo models is discussed.

  18. The new Sunspot Number: re-calibration, re-computation and implications for the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clette, Frédéric; Lefèvre, Laure

    2015-08-01

    Our knowledge of the long-term behaviour of the solar cycle and the occurrence of Grand Minima rest largely on the 400-year sunspot record, currently in the form of two time series: the Sunspot Number and the Group Number. Recently, a full revision of those two series allowed to identify and correct various inhomogeneities, thereby also eliminating most of the discrepancies between those two parallel series.We report here about the changes in those two series and one of the main implications: the absence of a progressive rise of solar activity from the Maunder Minimum to a modern maximum in the 20th century. We also focus in particular on the important corrections applied over the last 50 years, in particular a variable drift in the scale of the Specola Solare station (Locarno) that defined the long-term scale of the International Sunspot Number over the last 35 years, i.e. over the period when modern measurements of solar irradiance and solar wind particles can be correlated with the Sunspot Number for building long-term backward reconstructions of those physical parameters. Taking advantage of the archive of the World Data Center SILSO (270 stations, 550,000 observations), we could entirely re-compute the Sunspot Number. We describe the properties of the new resulting series and the new method developed to build a more stable multi-station reference for the Sunspot Number.We conclude on the release of the new reference Sunspot Number and the simultaneous adoption of new conventions and standards (error estimates, version tracking and documenting). We also consider the next steps that will allow future progresses in the characterisation of the solar cycle: the digitisation of historical drawings and the creation of image-based sunspot indices that will allow adding spatial information, to extend the one-dimensional information brought by the Sunspot Number.

  19. The spiral interplanetary magnetic field - A polarity and sunspot cycle variation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

    1974-01-01

    Spacecraft observations near the earth of the average direction of the interplanetary magnetic field during the sunspot maximum year 1968 showed a deviation from the spiral field of Parker's classical description. The included angle between the average field direction when the field polarity was away from the sun and the average direction when the field polarity was toward the sun was 168 deg, rather than 180 deg as predicted by Parker. This effect appears to have a sunspot cycle variation.

  20. The spiral interplanetary magnetic field: A polarity and sunspot cycle variation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

    1974-01-01

    Spacecraft observations near the earth of the yearly average direction of the interplanetary magnetic field during the sunspot maximum year 1968 showed a deviation from the spiral field. The angle between the average field direction when the field polarity was away from the sun and the average direction for toward polarity was 168 deg, rather than 180 deg. This effect appears to have a sunspot cycle variation.

  1. The unusual minimum of sunspot cycle 23 caused by meridional plasma flow variations.

    PubMed

    Nandy, Dibyendu; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Martens, Petrus C H

    2011-03-01

    Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface varies periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum characterized by a very weak polar magnetic field and an unusually large number of days without sunspots. Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions generated by a dynamo mechanism that recreates the solar polar field mediated through plasma flows. Here we report results from kinematic dynamo simulations which demonstrate that a fast meridional flow in the first half of a cycle, followed by a slower flow in the second half, reproduces both characteristics of the minimum of sunspot cycle 23. Our model predicts that, in general, very deep minima are associated with weak polar fields. Sunspots govern the solar radiative energy and radio flux, and, in conjunction with the polar field, modulate the solar wind, the heliospheric open flux and, consequently, the cosmic ray flux at Earth. PMID:21368827

  2. Magnetic Tilts and Polarity Separations in Sunspot Groups and Active Regions the Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkov, S. I.; Zharkova, V. V.

    2006-08-01

    We present the analysis of magnetic tilts in active regions and sunspot groups for 1996-2005 that are automatically extracted from the Solar Feature Catalogues (http://solar.inf.brad.ac.uk ). We investigate the statistical variations of magnetic field tilt in sunspot groups and whole active regions, their longitudinal and latitudinal distributions, drifts and daily polarity separation during different phases of the solar cycle 23. The classification results are compared with the similar research for the previous cycles and the specifics on the cycle 23 is discussed in conjunction to the solar dynamo theory.

  3. The statistical study of global properties of sunspots observed by SoHO/MDI continuum images over solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goel, Suruchi; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Mathew, Shibu K.

    2016-07-01

    A better understanding of inter-dependency of various sunspot parameters such as magnetic field, intensity, temperature, size etc., and also their variation with strength of solar activity cycle is important to understand the magneto-convection process involved in sunspot formation and evolution and hence to develop a consistent sunspot model. We have investigated global sunspot properties using parameters of sunspots identified from stray-light-corrected continuum images from SoHO/MDI spanning from years 1996 to 2011. We find that the non-linear relation between umbral core (minimum) intensity and sunspot area is best represented by an exponential function, which reaches an asymptotic value at 600 MSH. For the first time we have also observed that the core intensity depends on shape of umbrae, i.e., circular umbrae are statistically darker compared to the elongated ones. The core intensity increases slightly towards the limb (by value of ~0.1 from disk center to the limb). From sunspots sampled over the complete solar cycle 23 and during the rising phase of cycle 24, we did not find any solar-cycle variation in umbral core intensity. The penumbra to umbra area ratio is found to be not a constant parameter, instead it shows a quadratic decrease with sunspot area. Leading and following sunspots usually have different morphological features, however in this study we did not observe significant differences in their core intensity and penumbra-umbra area ratio relation with the sunspot area.

  4. The Antarctic ozone minimum - Relationship to odd nitrogen, odd chlorine, the final warming, and the 11-year solar cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callis, L. B.; Natarajan, M.

    1986-01-01

    Photochemical calculations along 'diabatic trajectories' in the meridional phase are used to search for the cause of the dramatic springtime minimum in Antarctic column ozone. The results indicate that the minimum is principally due to catalytic destruction of ozone by high levels of total odd nitrogen. Calculations suggest that these levels of odd nitrogen are transported within the polar vortex and during the polar night from the middle to upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere to the lower stratosphere. The possibility that these levels are related to the 11-year solar cycle and are increased by enhanced formation in the thermosphere and mesosphere during solar maximum conditions is discussed.

  5. New 1982-1990 photometry of Lambda Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Douglas S.; Henry, Gregory W.; Boehme, Dietmar; Brooks, Peter A.; Chang, Sandy; Dolzan, Ales; Fortier, George L.; Fried, Robert E.; Genet, Russell M.; Grim, Bruce S.

    1991-01-01

    The paper presents photoelectric photometry of Lambda And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then it is combined with all other photometry available (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0.15 m and a period of 11.4 +/- 0.4 years. Because most of the new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-1984 observing season, this one well-defined light curve is analyzed with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0.04 m amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0.09 m down almost to 0.03 m. The spot rotation periods were 55.9 d +/- 0.6 d and 52.8 d +/- 1.0 d, respectively.

  6. Long-term total solar irradiance variability during sunspot cycle 22

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Robert B., III; Gibson, M. Alan; Wilson, Robert S.; Thomas, Susan

    1995-01-01

    Total solar irradiance measurements from the 1984-1993 Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) active cavity radiometer and 1978-1993 Nimbus 7 transfer cavity radiometer spacecraft experiments are analyzed to detect the presence of 11-, 22-, and 80-year irradiance variability components. The analyses confirmed the existence of a significant 11-year irradiance variability component, associated with solar magnetic activity and the sunspot cycle. The analyses also suggest the presence of a 22- or 80-year variability component. The earlier Nimbus 7 and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft irradiance measurements decreased approximately 1.2 and 1.3 W/sq m, respectively, between 1980 and 1986. The Nimbus 7 values increased 1.2 W/sq m between 1986 and 1989. The ERBS irradiance measurements increased 1.3 W/sq m during 1986-1989, and then decreased 0.4 W/sq m (at an annual rate of 0.14 W/sq. m/yr) during 1990-1993. Considering the correlations between ERBS, Nimbus 7, and SMM irradiance trends and solar magnetic activity, the total solar irradiance should decrease to minimum levels by 1997 as solar activity decreases to minimum levels, and then increase to maximum levels by the year 2000 as solar activity rises. The ERBS measurements yielded 165.4 +/- 0.7 W/sq m as the mean irradiance value with measurement accuracies and precisions of 0.2% and 0.02%, respectively. The ERBS mean irradiance value is within 0.2% of the 1367.4, 1365.9, and 1366.9 W/sq m mean values for the SMM, Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), and Space Shuttle Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS 1) Solar Constant (SOLCON) active cavity radiometer spacecraft experiments, respectively. The Nimbus 7 measurements yielded 1372.1 W/sq m as the mean value with a measurement accuracy of 0.5%. Empirical irradiance model fits, based upon 10.7 -cm solar radio flux (F10) and photometric sunspot index (PSI), were used to assess the quality of the ERBS, Numbus 7, SMM, and the UARS

  7. SOLAR CYCLE 24: CURIOUS CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE NUMBERS OF SUNSPOT GROUP TYPES

    SciTech Connect

    Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

    2014-10-10

    Here, we analyze different sunspot group (SG) behaviors from the points of view of both the sunspot counts (SSCs) and the number of SGs, in four categories, for the time period of 1982 January-2014 May. These categories include data from simple (A and B), medium (C), large (D, E, and F), and decaying (H) SGs. We investigate temporal variations of all data sets used in this study and find the following results. (1) There is a very significant decrease in the large groups' SSCs and the number of SGs in solar cycle 24 (cycle 24) compared to cycles 21-23. (2) There is no strong variation in the decaying groups' data sets for the entire investigated time interval. (3) Medium group data show a gradual decrease for the last three cycles. (4) A significant decrease occurred in the small groups during solar cycle 23, while no strong changes show in the current cycle (cycle 24) compared to the previous ones. We confirm that the temporal behavior of all categories is quite different from cycle to cycle and it is especially flagrant in solar cycle 24. Thus, we argue that the reduced absolute number of the large SGs is largely, if not solely, responsible for the weak cycle 24. These results might be important for long-term space weather predictions to understand the rate of formation of different groups of sunspots during a solar cycle and the possible consequences for the long-term geomagnetic activity.

  8. The New Sunspot-Number Index and Solar-Cycle Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrasco, V. M. S.; Aparicio, A. J. P.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.

    2016-10-01

    We revisit several characteristics of the solar cycle using the new version of the sunspot-number index. Thus, we calculated several correlations, including the recent Solar Cycles 23 and 24 in the analysis. We applied two smoothing methods to the sunspot number: i) the usual 13-month running mean and ii) a 24-month Gaussian filter. Each of these methods contains two analyses: on the one hand, we consider all of the solar cycles available, and on the other hand, only those from Solar Cycle 10 onward. It can be seen that this new version improves or yields similar results for the correlations with respect to other works using the old version of the sunspot number, except for the amplitude-descending time effect and the linear fit of the secular trend. However, employing the same methodology in the analysis and considering the same solar cycles, it can be seen that the new sunspot number, in general, does not improve the correlations with respect to the old sunspot number and, moreover, the correlations obtained with the Gaussian filter generally are stronger than those with the 13-month running mean. Furthermore, from a sinusoidal fit to the solar-maximum amplitudes of the whole series, we have obtained a periodicity of the Gleissberg cycle equal to 97.7 years ( {≈} 8.9 solar cycles) for the 13-month running mean and 99.8 years ( {≈} 9.1 solar cycles) for the Gaussian filter. Lastly, the Waldmeier effect, the modified Waldmeier effect, the amplitude-period effect, the amplitude-minimum effect, and the even-odd effect are characteristics with high correlation coefficients and significance levels; the sinusoidal fit applied to the solar-maximum amplitudes yields a lower correlation coefficient value but a high significance level; and both the amplitude-descending-time effect and secular trend of the solar activity have weaker correlation coefficients and significance levels.

  9. Statistical properties of Hα flares in relation to sunspots and active regions in the cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkov, S. I.; Zharkova, V. V.

    2011-02-01

    The statistical properties of Hα flare occurrences compared with those of sunspot and active region areas in the cycle 23. The flare numbers in the cycle 23 of all significances and locations were obtained from the Solar Geophysical Data (SGD) and the other data were taken from the automated Solar Feature Catalogues (SFC, http://solar.inf.brad.ac.uk). The average monthly flare occurrences during the whole cycle correlate closely with the total and cumulative areas of active regions and sunspots. The cumulative distribution of solar flare occurrences at different latitudes in the northern and southern hemispheres versus the time reveal a strong asymmetry with a domination of one or other hemispheres similar to the cumulative distributions of sunspots and active regions. Although the sunspot area asymmetry lags the flare occurrence asymmetry by about a few months at the ascending phase of the cycle and up to 12 months in the descending one. The latitudinal distribution of flare occurrences in the whole period reveals a well defined maximum at 18∘ in the northern and two maxima at 14∘ and 20∘ in the southern hemisphere. The longitudinal distributions of flare occurrence residuals of the running values and those averaged with a one year filter reveal a set of persistent longitudes in the opposite hemispheres lasting for about 1.0-1.5 years and changing quickly a few times over the cycle phases.

  10. A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. [graphs (charts)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

    1978-01-01

    On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.

  11. Relationships between solar activity and climate change. [sunspot cycle effects on lower atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roberts, W. O.

    1974-01-01

    Recurrent droughts are related to the double sunspot cycle. It is suggested that high solar activity generally increases meridional circulations and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter. This effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

  12. Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, R. M.

    1982-01-01

    Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated.

  13. Observations and analysis of the Ionospheric Alfven resonance mode structure in a complete 11-year solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baru, N. A.; Koloskov, A. V.; Yampolsky, Y. M.; Rakhmatulin, R. A.

    2016-03-01

    The long-term data of the ionospheric Alfven resonance (IAR) observations recorded at the Ukrainian Antarctic Station "Akademik Vernadsky" from 2002 to 2013 and at Sayan Solar Observatory (Mondy, Russia) from 2010 to 2013 are analyzed. IAR fine spectral structure is studied and a previously unknown effect of splitting of the several lowest resonance modes is discovered. The diurnal and seasonal dependencies of this effect are investigated as well as the dependences of the probability of IAR and splitting detection on Solar and geomagnetic activities in the 11-year cycle. The morphological features of the splitting frequency behavior are analyzed and three main characteristic periods of the splitting are identified, namely: the development, the stationary period and the disappearing. Possible mechanisms of the splitting effect are suggested.

  14. North-south asymmetry in small and large sunspot group activity and violation of even-odd solar cycle rule

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Javaraiah, J.

    2016-07-01

    According to Gnevyshev-Ohl (G-O) rule an odd-numbered cycle is stronger than its preceding even-numbered cycle. In the modern time the cycle pair (22, 23) violated this rule. By using the combined Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period 1874-2015, and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) of sunspot groups during the period 1974-2015, here we have found that the solar cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule because, besides during cycle 23 a large deficiency of small sunspot groups in both the northern and the southern hemispheres, during cycle 22 a large abundance of small sunspot groups in the southern hemisphere. In the case of large and small sunspot groups the cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, suggesting the north-south asymmetry in solar activity has a significant contribution in the violation of G-O rule. The amplitude of solar cycle 24 is smaller than that of solar cycle 23. However, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) rate in the rising phases of the cycles 23 and 24 are almost same (even slightly large in cycle 24). From both the SOON and the DPD sunspot group data here we have also found that on the average the ratio of the number (counts) of large sunspot groups to the number of small sunspot groups is larger in the rising phase of cycle 24 than that in the corresponding phase of cycle 23. We suggest this could be a potential reason for the aforesaid discrepancy in the CME rates during the rising phases of cycles 23 and 24. These results have significant implication on solar cycle mechanism.

  15. Harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scafetta, N.

    2012-12-01

    We show that the Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles that are closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (~9.93 year), to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years) and to a central cycle that may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle. The central harmonic is approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A harmonic model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals major beat periods occurring at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. Equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic solar proxy records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima around 1900-1920 and 1960-1980, the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005, and a secular upward trending during the 20th century. The latter modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020-2045, which is produced by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts

  16. Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-05-01

    The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900-1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature

  17. Amplification of the Steady Toroidal Magnetic Field in Solar Interior and Asymmetry of Sunspot Activity in Neighbouring Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kryvodubskyj, V. N.

    2006-08-01

    This investigation deals with the problem of the asymmetry of sunspot activity maximums in neighbouring solar cycles. The Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (Gnevyshev and Ohl 1948, Astron. Zhurn. 25, 18) is a likely evidence for the radiative interior pervaded by a strong steady magnetic field. Therefore, some effects are required to ensure existence this deep-laid field for long-duration times. The way for search of excitation mechanism of strong magnetic field gives us the helioseismological experiments. We take the physical parameters of the interiors from standard solar model by Allen (1973, Astrophysical Quantities, London) for calculations. It was found that main limiting factor on the magnetic field value is the magnetic flux loss due to buoyancy in the radiative (non-turbulent) zone (RZ) which overcomes the rate of the field decay caused by ohmic dissipation. The helioseismology inversions indicate that the radial, but not latitudinal, shear in the internal rotation of the Sun penetrates rather deep, almost to the solar core (Duval et al.1984, Nature 310, 22; Brown 1985, Nature 317, 591; Libbrecht 1986, Nature 319, 753). This radial differential rotation, acting on a weak relict poloidal magnetic field, about 1 G, in the stable RZ, can excite the rather strong steady toroidal fields (10 KG - 10 MG). Obtained estimations agree with the helioseismically determined magnetic intensities in the solar interiors (Dziembowski and Goode 1989, ApJ 347, 540; Antia, Chitre and Thompson 2003, A&A 399, 329). We assume that due to magnetic buoyancy and meridional circulation at the upper boundary of the RZ the power toroidal field may penetrate, partly, into the convective zone (CZ). Here stationary steady directed field will be add to oscillating toroidal field excited by αΩ-dynamo. Since the oscillating dynamo-field changes their own direction with 11-years cycle-period, then the amplitude of total, oscillating plus steady, toroidal field in the CZ has to be a few differing in

  18. Predicting the Size and Timing of Sunspot Maximum for Cycle 24

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    For cycle 24, the minimum value of the 12-month moving average (12-mma) of the AA-geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (AAm) appears to have occurred in September 2009, measuring about 8.4 nT and following sunspot minimum by 9 months. This is the lowest value of AAm ever recorded, falling below that of 8.9 nT, previously attributed to cycle 14, which also is the smallest maximum amplitude (RM) cycle of the modern era (RM = 64.2). Based on the method of Ohl (the preferential association between RM and AAm for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to have RM = 55+/-17 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval). Instead, using a variation of Ohl's method, one based on using 2-cycle moving averages (2-cma), one expects cycle 23's 2-cma of RM to be about 115.5+/-8.7 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval), inferring an RM of about 62+/-35 for cycle 24. Hence, it seems clear that cycle 24 will be smaller in size than was seen in cycle 23 (RM = 120.8) and, likely, will be comparable in size to that of cycle 14. From the Waldmeier effect (the preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to be a slow-rising cycle (ASC > or equal to 48 months), having RM occurrence after December 2012, unless it turns out to be a statistical outlier.

  19. On the Correlation Between Maximum Amplitude and Smoothed Monthly Mean Sunspot Number during the Rise of the Cycle (from t = 0-48 months Past Sunspot Minimum)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

    1998-01-01

    During the rise from sunspot minimum to maximum, the observed value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number at maximum RM is found to correlate with increasing strength against the current value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R(t), where t is the elapsed time in months from minimum. On the basis of the modern era sunspot cycles (i.e., cycles 10-22), the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important (i.e., at the 95-percent level of confidence) from about 11 mo past minimum and statistically very important (i.e.. at the 99-percent level of confidence) from about 15 mo past minimum; ignoring cycle 19, the largest cycle of the modern era, the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important from cycle onset. On the basis of R(t), estimates of RM can be gauged usually to within about +/- 30 percent during the first 2 yr and to within about +/- 20 percent (or better) after the first 2 yr of a cycle's onset. For cycle 23, because controversy exists regarding the placement of its minimum (i.e., its onset), being either May 1996 or perhaps August 1996 (or shortly thereafter), estimates of its RM are divergent, being lower (more like a mean size cycle) when using the earlier epoch of minimum and higher (above average in size) when using the later-occurring minimum. For smoothed monthly mean sunspot number through October 1997 (t = 17 or 14 mo, respectively), having a provisional value of 32.0. the earlier minimum date projects an RM of 110.3 +/- 33.1, while the later minimum date projects one of 137.2 +/- 41.2. The projection is slowly decreasing in size using the earlier onset date, while it is slowly increasing in size using the later onset date.

  20. Magnetic Tilts in Sunspot Groups and Active regions in the Cycle 23 obtained from the Solar Feature Catalogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkov, S. I.; Zharkova, V. V.; Bianda, M.; Cartesi, S.

    We compare a few methods for calculation of magnetic tilts in active regions using using the automated sunspot group classification from the Solar Feature Catalogues http solar inf brad ac uk for 1996-2005 The best performing methods were applied to investigate the statistical variations of magnetic field tilt in sunspot groups and their relation to the total magnetic field contained in sunspots during different phases of the solar cycle 23 The classification results are compared with the similar research for the cycle 22 and the specifics on the cycle 23 is discussed The results are also tested against the existing solar dynamo models and their applicability for the solar activity forecast

  1. Correlations between sunspot numbers, interplanetary parameters and geomagnetic trends over solar cycles 21-23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arora, Kusumita; Chandrasekhar, N. Phani; Nagarajan, Nandini; Singh, Ankit

    2014-07-01

    We have analysed correlations between sunspot numbers, solar wind, ion density, interplanetary magnetic field vis-à-vis magnetic activity. Planetary geomagnetic index (Ap) and local residual measure of magnetic activity (IΔH) from low-latitude Magnetic Observatory, CSIR-NGRI, Hyderabad (IMO-HYB) spanning solar cycles 21-23 are used for this study. Using correlation coefficients between and wavelet decomposition of sunspot numbers, interplanetary parameters and measures of magnetic activity, the complex and time varying nature of these inter-relationships are brought out. The overall influence of sunspot number could be separated and combined episodic effects of other solar parameters could be distinguished. The demonstrated correlation or lack of it, between measures of magnetic activity (Ap and IΔH), and all the parameters of solar activity, presented here corroborate established mechanisms as well as delineated clearly the relative impact of different solar mechanisms over phases of three solar cycles. The possible role of non-sunspot related activity from high latitude regions of the sun is indicated.

  2. Evolution of sunspot activity and inversion of the Sun's polar magnetic field in the current cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mordvinov, A. V.; Grigoryev, V. M.; Erofeev, D. V.

    2015-06-01

    A spatiotemporal analysis of the Sun's magnetic field was carried out to study the polar-field inversion in the current cycle in relation to sunspot activity. The causal relationship between these phenomena was demonstrated in a time-latitude aspect. After decay of long-lived activity complexes their magnetic fields were redistributed into the surrounding photosphere and formed unipolar magnetic regions which were transported to high latitudes. Zones of intense sunspot activity during 2011/2012 produced unipolar magnetic regions of the following polarities, whose poleward drift led to the inversion of the Sun's polar fields at the North and South Poles. At the North Pole the polar field reversal was completed by May 2013. It was demonstrated that mixed magnetic polarities near the North Pole resulted from violations of Joy's law at lower latitudes. Later sunspot activity in the southern hemisphere has led to a delay in magnetic polarity reversal at the South Pole. Thus, the north-south asymmetry of sunspot activity resulted in asynchronous polar field reversal in the current cycle.

  3. Lags and Hysteresis Loops of Cosmic Ray Intensity Versus Sunspot Numbers: Quantitative Estimates for Cycles 19 - 23 and a Preliminary Indication for Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kane, R. P.

    2014-07-01

    Hysteresis plots between cosmic-ray (CR) intensity (recorded at the Climax station) and sunspot relative number R Z show broad loops in odd cycles (19, 21, and 23) and narrow loops in even cycles (20 and 22). However, in the even cycles, the loops are not narrow throughout the whole cycle; around the sunspot-maximum period, a broad loop is seen. Only in the rising and declining phases, the loops are narrow in even cycles. The CR modulation is known to have a delay with respect to R Z, and the delay was believed to be longer in odd cycles (19, 21, and 23; about 10 months) than the delay in even cycles (20 and 22; about 3 - 5 months). When this was reexamined, it was found that the delays are different during the sunspot-minimum periods (2, 6, and 14 months for odd cycles and 7 and 9 months for even cycles) and sunspot-maximum periods (0, 4, and 7 months for odd cycles and 5 and 8 months for even cycles). Thus, the differences between odd and even cycles are not significant throughout the whole cycle. In the recent even cycle 24, hysteresis plots show a preliminary broadening near the sunspot maximum, which occurred recently (February 2012). The CR level (recorded at Newark station) is still high in 2013, indicating a long lag (exceeding 10 months) with respect to the sunspot maximum.

  4. The 11-year solar cycle in current reanalyses: a (non)linear attribution study of the middle atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

    2015-06-01

    This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11-year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (support vector regression, neural networks) besides the multiple linear regression approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis data sets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how these types of data resolve especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the tropical stratosphere were found to be in qualitative agreement with previous attribution studies, although the agreement with observational results was incomplete, especially for JRA-55. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone data sets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. The results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all data sets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. The seasonal evolution of the solar response was also discussed in terms of dynamical causalities in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation at solar maxima was reviewed together with a discussion of polar vortex behaviour.

  5. A multi-secular sunspot number perspective on the current solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lefevre, Laure; Clette, Fr

    The international sunspot number (SSN), maintained at the World Data Center (WDC) in Brussels, is widely used as the main reference index characterizing the long-term evolution of solar activity over time-scales of decades to centuries. It provides an essential reference for characterizing how the solar output has varied over centuries and thus for assessing the variations of the main natural forcing on the Earth climate. It also serves as a key input to most solar cycle prediction methods. Given the recent unexpected changes in cycles 23 and 24, and the persistent lack of success in predicting their strength, it has become even more important to better understand the historical evolution of this prime index and to assess the long-term stability of its absolute scale. A full revision of the SSN has been undertaken in the framework of the SSN Workshop series organized jointly by the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) since 2010. Here, we will report about the resulting changes to this secular time series and their implications for our understanding of the long-term solar cycle evolution. In particular, the uniqueness of the recent "Modern Maximum" will be considered. We will also review the evidence for the recent deficit of small spots and the parallel decline of the average sunspot core magnetic field and show how such subtle solar trends can explain the reported divergence between the sunspot number and several other solar activity indices, like the F10.7cm radio flux. Taking advantage of the 400-year perspective offered by the sunspot record, we will also conclude on limitations of recent solar cycle prediction attempts, now that cycle 24 has possibly reached its actual maximum.

  6. The lunar cycle, sunspots and the frequency of births in Germany, 1920-1989.

    PubMed

    Bauer, Thomas K; Bender, Stefan; Heining, Jörg; Schmidt, Christoph M

    2013-12-01

    Based on multivariate linear regression models, we analyze the effect of the lunar cycle and the number of sunspots occurring on a particular day on the number of births using social security data and controlling for a number of other potential confounders. The daily numbers of births between 1920 and 1989 have been calculated from the full sample of individuals who have been registered at least once in the German social security system. While the lunar cycle does not affect the number of births, the number of sunspots is positively correlated to the number of births. The empirical results may be explained by medical technological progress making natural influences on births less important over time. This interpretation is supported by the results on the intertemporal influence of weekends and holidays on the frequency of daily births.

  7. The lunar cycle, sunspots and the frequency of births in Germany, 1920-1989.

    PubMed

    Bauer, Thomas K; Bender, Stefan; Heining, Jörg; Schmidt, Christoph M

    2013-12-01

    Based on multivariate linear regression models, we analyze the effect of the lunar cycle and the number of sunspots occurring on a particular day on the number of births using social security data and controlling for a number of other potential confounders. The daily numbers of births between 1920 and 1989 have been calculated from the full sample of individuals who have been registered at least once in the German social security system. While the lunar cycle does not affect the number of births, the number of sunspots is positively correlated to the number of births. The empirical results may be explained by medical technological progress making natural influences on births less important over time. This interpretation is supported by the results on the intertemporal influence of weekends and holidays on the frequency of daily births. PMID:23261260

  8. Difference between even and odd cycles in the predictability of the amplitude of the around 11-year-period solar activity and prediction of the amplitude of cycle 25

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshida, A.; Sayre, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    The waxing and waning of the solar activity represented by a period of roughly 11 years is usually quantified by the change in the sunspot number (SSN). It is commonly held that these increases and decreases in the SSN as well as the changes in the general dipole-like magnetic field in the photosphere and corona are produced by a magneto-hydro dynamic process in the sun's underlying convection layer. Assuming this is the case, it follows that SSNs in past cycles should contain a certain kind of information that enables us to estimate the amplitudes of future cycles. We report here a set of new results along this line of research. The chief aim of this paper is to demonstrate a distinct difference in the predictability of solar activity between even and odd cycles. Yoshida and Yamagishi (2010) showed that the SSN at the point three years before a minimum is well correlated with the maximum SSN in the following cycle. Here, we show that the correlation between this locus and the average SSN supplies a higher correlation coefficient. Moreover, we demonstrate that the correlation coefficient for even cycles is far better than that for odd ones (i.e., 0.96 and 0.74, respectively). Though it has been known that the correlation between the SSN at a point three years after a minimum and the maximum SSN is high, we demonstrate here that taking this calculation along with the average SSN (instead of the maximum SSN), the correlation coefficient for even cycles (0.98) reveals itself to be noticeably larger than that for odd cycles (0.93). Furthermore, we have found that the average SSN of even cycles is highly correlated with that of succeeding odd cycles (i.e., the correlation coefficient - minus three outliers - is 0.99). Conversely, no correlation is observed between amplitudes of odd cycles and those of succeeding even cycles. These distinct differences between even-odd pairs and odd-even pairs in their connective features lead us to believe that pairs of even-odd cycles

  9. Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

    1978-01-01

    On physical grounds it is suggested that the polar field strength of the sun near a solar minimum is closely related to the solar activity of the following cycle. Four methods of estimating the polar magnetic field strength of the sun near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of the yearly mean sunspot number of cycle 21 at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimate may be considered a first-order attempt to predict the cycle activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.

  10. Climate variability related to the 11 year solar cycle as represented in different spectral solar irradiance reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Misios, Stergios; Matthes, Katja; Langematz, Ulrike; Tourpali, Kleareti

    2016-04-01

    shortwave heating rate differences (additionally collated with line-by-line calculations using libradtran), differences in the photolysis rates, as well as atmospheric circulation features (temperature, zonal wind, geopotential height, etc.). It is shown that atmospheric responses to the different SSI datasets differ significantly from each other. This is a result from direct radiative effects as well as indirect effects induced by ozone feedbacks. Differences originating from using different SSI datasets for the same level of solar activity are in the same order of magnitude as those associated with the 11 year solar cycle within a specific dataset. However, the climate signals related to the solar cycle are quite comparable across datasets.

  11. Solar Dynamo and the Sunspot Cycle: Current Status and Future Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nandi, Dibyendu

    2016-07-01

    Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions on the Sun's surface that have been observed for over four centuries. The number of sunspots on the solar surface waxes and wanes with an average periodicity of eleven years. The amplitude of this cycle varies and this variation governs the frequency of occurrence of solar storms, solar radiative and particulate output and the heliospheric open flux. This magnetically modulated solar activity variation has consequences for the environment of planets such as the Earth and our space and ground-based technologies. The origin of solar magnetism and its evolution is governed by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism that relies on interactions between plasma flows and magnetic fields in the Sun's interior. In this talk I will review our current understanding of the solar dynamo mechanism, highlight outstanding issues and discuss future prospects laying particular emphasis on solar activity predictions.

  12. Flares, Fears, and Forecasts: Public Misconceptions About the Sunspot Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larsen, K.

    2012-06-01

    Among the disaster scenarios perpetrated by 2012 apocalypse aficionados is the destruction of humankind due to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These scenarios reflect common misconceptions regarding the solar cycle. This paper (based on an annual meeting poster) sheds light on those misconceptions and how the AAVSO Solar Section can address them.

  13. A Normalized Sunspot-Area Series Starting in 1832: An Update

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrasco, V. M. S.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Sánchez-Bajo, F.

    2016-07-01

    A new normalized sunspot-area series has been reconstructed from the series obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory and other contemporary institutions for the period 1874 - 2008 and the area series compiled by De la Rue, Stewart, and Loewy from 1832 to 1868. Since the two sets of series do not overlap in time, we used the new version of sunspot index number (Version 2) published by Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) as a link between them. We also present a spectral analysis of the normalized-area series in search of periodicities beyond the well-known solar cycle of 11 years and a study of the Waldmeier effect in the new version of sunspot number and the sunspot-area series presented in this study. We conclude that while this effect is significant in the new series of sunspot number, it has a weak relationship with the sunspot-area series.

  14. Deciphering solar magnetic activity. I. On the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the evolution of small magnetic features

    SciTech Connect

    McIntosh, Scott W.; Wang, Xin; Markel, Robert S.; Thompson, Michael J.; Leamon, Robert J.; Malanushenko, Anna V.; Davey, Alisdair R.; Howe, Rachel; Krista, Larisza D.; Cirtain, Jonathan W.; Gurman, Joseph B.; Pesnell, William D.

    2014-09-01

    Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ∼22 yr. The principal variation of sunspots, an ∼11 yr variation, modulates the amount of the magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our star's radiative, particulate, and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11 yr sunspot variation is intrinsically tied to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer-scale variability.

  15. The 2015 Revision of the Sunspot Number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svalgaard, L.

    2014-12-01

    Our knowledge of the long-term evolution of solar activity and of its primary modulation, the 11-year cycle, largely depends on a single direct observational record: the visual sunspot counts that retrace the last 4 centuries, since the invention of the astronomical telescope. Currently, this activity index is available in two main forms: the International Sunspot Number initiated by R. Wolf in 1849 and the Group Number constructed more recently by Hoyt and Schatten (1998a,b). Unfortunately, those two series do not match by various aspects, inducing confusions and contradictions when used in crucial contemporary studies of the solar dynamo or of the solar forcing on the Earth climate. Recently, new efforts have been undertaken to diagnose and correct flaws and biases affecting both sunspot series, in the framework of a series of dedicated Sunspot Number Workshops. Here, we present a global overview of our current understanding of the sunspot number calibration. While the early part of the sunspot record before 1800 is still characterized by large uncertainties due to poorly observed periods, the more recent sunspot numbers are mainly affected by three main inhomogeneities: in 1880-1915 for the Group Number and in 1947 and 1980-2014 for the Sunspot Number. The newly corrected series clearly indicates a progressive decline of solar activity before the onset of the Maunder Minimum, while the slowly rising trend of the activity after the Maunder Minimum is strongly reduced, suggesting that by the mid 18th century, solar activity had already returned to the level of those observed in recent solar cycles in the 20th century. We finally conclude with future prospects opened by this epochal revision of the Sunspot Number, the first one since Wolf himself, and its reconciliation with the Group Number, a long-awaited modernization that will feed solar cycle research into the 21st century.

  16. A deep-seated mechanism for cycle-dependent sunspot group tilt angles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isik, Emre

    2016-07-01

    The cycle-averaged tilt angle of sunspot groups is an important quantity in determining the magnetic flux diffusing across the equator, which is highly correlated with the strength of the next cycle. This quantity has recently been reported to be anti-correlated with the strength of the solar cycle. I suggest that a deep-seated thermodynamic cycle can be responsible for the observed correlation. Motivated by helioseismic indications, I calculate the effect of cooling of the convective overshoot region on the stability and dynamics of thin, unstable flux tubes. I find that only 5-20 K of cooling in the layer can explain the observed range of tilt angle fluctuations among different cycles. This mechanism can play a role in the nonlinear saturation and amplitude fluctuations of the solar dynamo.

  17. An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahluwalia, H. S.

    2014-02-01

    The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20-24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.

  18. On long-term periodicities in the sunspot record

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, R. M.

    1984-01-01

    Sunspot records are systematically maintained, with the knowledge that an 11 year average period exists since about 1850. Thus, the sunspot record of highest quality and considered to be the most reliable is that of cycle eight through the present. On the basis of cycles 8 through 20, various combinations of sine curves were used to approximate the observed R sub MAX values (where R sub MAX is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum). It is found that a three component sinusoidal function, having an 11 cycle and a 2 cycle variation on a 90 cycle periodicity, yields computed R sub MAX values which fit, reasonably well, observed R sub MAX values for the modern sunspot cycles. Extrapolation of the empirical functions forward in time allows for the projection of values of R sub MAX for cycles 21 and 22. For cycle 21, the function projects a value of 157.3, very close to the actually observed value of 164.5. For cycle 22, the function projects a value of about 107. Linear regressions applied to cycle 22 indicate a long-period cycle (cycle duration 132 months). An extensive bibliography on techniques used to estimate the time dependent behavior of sunspot cycles is provided.

  19. Altitude dependent sensitivity of equatorial atomic oxygen in the MLT region to the quasi-11-year and quasi-27-day solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lednyts'kyy, Olexandr; Von Savigny, Christian

    2016-07-01

    We retrieved atomic oxygen concentration ([O]) profiles with help of volume emission rate (VER) profiles calculated from the measured by SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) emissions of green line nightglow in the MLT (Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere) region. We quantified the sensitivity of equatorial [O] to the 11-year and 27-day solar cycle forcing represented by such proxy indicators of solar activity as MgII index and Lyman-α with help of the wavelet, cross-correlation, superposed epoch, regression and harmonical analysis methods. We applied ordinary least squares bisector fitting on MgII index and F10.7 radio flux, which is measured in solar flux units (sfu), to convert the [O] sensitivity values in sfu and finally in percent changes. The same procedure was performed in the case of Lyman-α. Our results of the sensitivity analysis correspond well to the 11-year solar cycle response of O volume mixing ratios found in simulations performed with the WACCM3 (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, v. 3) and the HAMMONIA (3D Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere) model. We identified an 11-year solar cycle variation, quasi-biennial and annual/semi-annual oscillations as well as signatures of the 27-day cycle of solar activity as presented in the MLT O layer. The most remarkable result is that the found sensitivities agree within their uncertainties and do not depend on averaging method (annual, monthly and daily) of the [O] time series. We report on 11-year and 27-day solar cycle signatures in dependence on altitude intervals used to average the [O] time series.

  20. The Divergence of CME and Sunspot Number Rates During Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, David F.; St. Cyr, Orville Chris; Xie, Hong; Kuchar, Thomas Andrew

    2014-06-01

    In the previous three solar cycles the frequency of occurrence of CMEs observed in white light has closely tracked the solar cycle in both phase and amplitude, varying by an order of magnitude over the cycle. LASCO has now observed the entire solar Cycle 23 and continues to observe through the current rise and maximum phases of Cycle 24. Cycle 23 had an unusually long decline and extended minimum. During this period we have been able to image and count CMEs in the heliosphere, and can determine rates from both LASCO and STEREO SECCHI (since 2007) coronagraphs and from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI - since 2003) and the SECCHI Heliospheric Imagers in the heliosphere. Manual rates estimated by observers are now supplemented by counts from identifications made by automatic programs, such as contained in the SEEDS, CACTus and ARTEMIS catalogs. Since the cycle 23/24 minimum, the CME and sunspot number rates have diverged, with similar cycle 23/24 rise and peak CME rates but much lower SSN rates in this cycle. We will discuss these rate estimates and their implications for the evolution of the global solar magnetic field.

  1. Correlation of the Global Photospheric Magnetic Field Structure with the Latitudinal Sunspot Distribution in the solar cycles 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavryuseva, E.; Zharkov, S.; Zharkova, V.

    begin table htbp begin center begin tabular p 442pt hline begin itemize item We compare a basic topology of large scale solar magnetic field with newline the distribution of the sunspot activity in latitude and newline in time in the past 2 solar cycles newline The large scale magnetic fields were composed from the data of WSO observatory the sunspot characteristics we extracted for the cycle 23 from the Solar Feature Catalogues underline http solar inf brad ac uk newline newline The magnetic field variations reveal a 4-zonal structure with 22-year periodicity and running waves through the solar latitudes with the two years periods The results are compared with the sunspot latitudinal variations in time and cumulitative variations in the butterfly diagrams The comparison results are used to explain the double peaks and variable character of the solar activity that can be used for its modelling and prediction end itemize hline end tabular label tab6 end center end table

  2. On the relationship between the Solar Cycle and the Secular Solar Cycle with the Quasi- quinquennial Periodicity of Sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velasco Herrera, Victor Manuel

    We have done a Wavelet Spectral Analysis of the daily, monthly and annual series of Sunspots; the obtained results show that the 5.5 years (quasi-quinquennial) periodicity is systematically present in the spectrum of the secular maxima of solar activity. Such periodicity is attenuated or disappears during the secular minima: e.g. the Maunder, Dalton and Modern minima. Since such a quasi-quinquennial frequency has been attenuated during the preceding cycles 22 and 23, therefore, we should expect that such a periodicity will be attenuated or disappear during cycle 24 as well as in cycles 25 and 26. Such a behavior will confirm that we are in the descending phase of the secular cycle toward its minima at the end of cycle 26. Data of Suns Spots by the end of Cycle 24 will allow us either, to confirm our results on the relation between the 5.5 years periodicity and the solar secular cycle, or conversely to assume that the secular cycle is shifted, or even our results are not of general validity but only for some cycles as those associated to the Maunder, Dalton, and Modern minima.

  3. An Estimate of the Size and Shape of Sunspot Cycle 24 Based on its Early Cycle Behavior using the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann Shape-Fitting Function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    On the basis of 12-month moving averages (12-mma) of monthly mean sunspot number (R), sunspot cycle 24 had its minimum amplitude (Rm = 1.7) in December 2008. At 12 mo past minimum, R measured 8.3, and at 18 mo past minimum, it measured 16.4. Thus far, the maximum month-to-month rate of rise in 12-mma values of monthly mean sunspot number (AR(t) max) has been 1.7, having occurred at elapsed times past minimum amplitude (t) of 14 and 15 mo. Compared to other sunspot cycles of the modern era, cycle 24?s Rm and AR(t) max (as observed so far) are the smallest on record, suggesting that it likely will be a slow-rising, long-period sunspot cycle of below average maximum amplitude (RM). Supporting this view is the now observed relative strength of cycle 24?s geomagnetic minimum amplitude as measured using the 12-mma value of the aa-geomagnetic index (aam = 8.4), which also is the smallest on record, having occurred at t equals 8 and 9 mo. From the method of Ohl (the inferred preferential association between RM and aam), one predicts RM = 55 +/- 17 (the ?1 se prediction interval) for cycle 24. Furthermore, from the Waldmeier effect (the inferred preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM) one predicts an ASC longer than 48 mo for cycle 24; hence, maximum amplitude occurrence should be after December 2012. Application of the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann shape-fitting function, using an RM = 70 and ASC = 56 mo, is found to adequately fit the early sunspot number growth of cycle 24.

  4. Understanding the Origin of the Extended Minimum of Sunspot Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Nandy, D.; Martens, P. C. H.

    2011-05-01

    The minimum of solar cycle 23 was characterized by very weak polar field strength and a large number of sunspot-less days that was unprecedented in the space age. This has had significant consequences in the heliospheric space environment in terms of record-high cosmic-ray flux and low levels of solar irradiance - which is the primary natural driver of the climate system. During this un-anticipated phase, there was some speculation as to whether the solar minimum could lead to a Maunder-like grand minimum which coincided with the Little Ice Age. Here we present the first consistent explanation of the defining characteristics of this unusual minimum based on variations in the solar meridional plasma flows, and discuss how our results compare with observations. This work is funded by NASA Living With a Star Grant NNX08AW53G to Montana State University/Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and the Government of India's Ramanujan Fellowship.

  5. Comparison of the Variations of Sunspot Number, Number of Sunspot Groups, and Sunspot Area, 1875 -2013

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Examined are the yearly variations and ratios of sunspot number, the number of sunspot groups, and the total corrected sunspot area for the interval 1875-2013. While yearly sunspot number independently correlates strongly (r = 0.98) with the yearly number of sunspot groups (y = -2 + 11.99x) and the total corrected sunspot area (y = 5 + 0.059x), the strongest correlation (Ry12 = 0.99) is the one based on the bivariate fit of sunspot number against the combined variations of the number of sunspot groups and sunspot area (y = 1 + 5.88x1 + 0.031x2, where y refers to sunspot number, x1 refers to the number of sunspot groups, and x2 refers to the sunspot area). While all cycle minima based on the bivariate fit are concurrent with the observed minimum in sunspot number, cycle maxima are sometimes found to differ. For sunspot cycles 12, 19, 20, and 23, cycle maximum is inferred to have occurred in 1884, 1958, 1970, and 2002, respectively, rather than in 1883, 1957, 1968, and 2000, based on the observed sunspot number. Also, cycle 19's maximum amplitude based on observed sunspot number seems too high in comparison to that found using the bivariate fit. During the 139-year interval 1875-2013, the difference between the observed and predicted sunspot number based on the bivariate fit is <1 standard error of estimate (se) (<6.4) for 111 years, between 1 and <2 se (6.4 to <12.8) for 28 years, and =2 se (=12.8) for only 4 years, these years being 1957 (16.6), 1978 (-15.8), 1980 (23), and 1982 (-16.3). For sunspot cycle 24, the difference between observed and predicted values has been only -0.7 and 3.2 (=0.5 se).

  6. Meridional motions of sunspots from 1947.9 to 1985.0. II - Latitude motions dependent on SPOT type and phase of the activity cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lustig, G.; Hanslmeier, A.

    1987-01-01

    The dependence of the meridional motions of sunspots on sunspot-type and phase in the solar activity cycle for the time interval 1947.9-1985.0 is examined; this was done also with the sunspot data from the solar-observatory Kanzelhoehe. For the total time interval, investigations for each cycle were carried out only for the elder or long lasting G, H, and J sunspot groups and distinctions between similar sunspot types AB, C, D, EF, GHJ (Zuerich-classification). The meridional motions about the different activity maxima were also examined. In all investigations in the period from 1947.9 to 1985.0 a tendency to a southdrift can be observed on both hemispheres of the sun, but the mean meridional motions are between the error-bars not very significantly different from zero.

  7. DOES THE VARIATION OF THE SOLAR INTRA-NETWORK HORIZONTAL FIELD FOLLOW THE SUNSPOT CYCLE?

    SciTech Connect

    Jin, C. L.; Wang, J. X.

    2015-07-01

    The ubiquitousness of the solar inter-network horizontal magnetic field has been revealed by space-borne observations with high spatial resolution and polarization sensitivity. However, no consensus has been achieved on the origin of the horizontal field among solar physicists. For a better understanding, in this study, we analyze the cyclic variation of the inter-network horizontal field by using the spectro-polarimeter observations provided by the Solar Optical Telescope on board Hinode, covering the interval from 2008 April to 2015 February. The method of wavelength integration is adopted to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio. It is found that from 2008 to 2015 the inter-network horizontal field does not vary when solar activity increases, and the average flux density of the inter-network horizontal field is 87 ± 1 G, In addition, the imbalance between horizontal and vertical fields also keeps invariant within the scope of deviation, i.e., 8.7 ± 0.5, from the solar minimum to maximum of solar cycle 24. This result confirms that the inter-network horizontal field is independent of the sunspot cycle. The revelation favors the idea that a local dynamo is creating and maintaining the solar inter-network horizontal field.

  8. Merging Sunspots

    NASA Video Gallery

    One core area of Sunspot 1117 emerged, and then edged over and merged with another core area over three days (Oct. 25-27, 2010) to form a much larger, active sunspot region. Portions of sunspot gro...

  9. Estimating sunspot number

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, R. M.; Reichmann, E. J.; Teuber, D. L.

    1984-01-01

    An empirical method is developed to predict certain parameters of future solar activity cycles. Sunspot cycle statistics are examined, and curve fitting and linear regression analysis techniques are utilized.

  10. Statistical properties of sunspot, active region distributions and flare occurrences in the cycle 23 as detected from the Solar Feature Catalogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkova, V. V.; Zharkov, S. I.

    2006-08-01

    The statistical properties of sunspot and active regions (plages) distributions and their relation to flare distributions are presented for 1996-2005 from the automated Solar Feature Catalogues from the SOHO and Meudon Observatories (SFC, http://solar.inf.brad.ac.uk). Cross-correlation analysis is carried out between flare sizes, locations, significance and active region/sunspot parameters including magnetic field extracted in SFC. Sunspot and plage area distributions reveals a strong North-South asymmetry of about 0.2 and the period of about 7-8 years for sunspots and of 0.5 and period of 9 years for plages with both asymmetries decreasing towards the next cycle minimum. The temporal distribution of solar flare occurrences in Northern and Southern hemispheres, at different latitudes and longitudes are compared with those of plage and sunspot areas and LOS magnetic fields. The application of these results to the solar activity forecast is discussed.

  11. Long-term variation of statistical properties of sunspot field strengths and their relation to the characteristics of solar cycles in 1917-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tlatova, Kseniya; Pevtsov, Alexei; Tlatov, Andrey; Vasilieva, Valeria; Kalevi Mursula

    We use the digitized sunspot daily drawings from the Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) from 1917—2013 to study the long-term variations in sunspot magnetic fields. Tabulated data include the heliographic coordinates, area and magnetic field strength of all sunspots on solar disk. Sunspot field strengths exhibit several trends, which can be of instrumental or truly solar in its nature. For example, in depth analysis of the sunspot field strength and the sunspot areas indicates long-term changes in the observing system at the MWO, when systematically larger number of measurements in sub-features (e.g., multiple umbrae) was made beginning mid-20th century. The final data set is used to study several properties of active regions including difference (in field strength and area) between leading and following sunspots, the orientation of magnetic field in sunspots and pores relative to vertical direction, and the Hale (polarity) and Joy (tilt) laws over the period of about ten solar cycles.

  12. Evolution and Flare Activity of δ-Sunspots in Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takizawa, K.; Kitai, R.

    2015-07-01

    The emergence and magnetic evolution of solar active regions (ARs) of βγδ-type, which are known to be highly flare-productive, were studied with SOHO/MDI data in Cycle 23. We selected 31 ARs that can be observed from their birth phase as unbiased samples for our study. From the analysis of the magnetic topology (twist and writhe), we obtained the following results: i) Emerging βγδ ARs can be classified into three topological types as quasi-β, writhed, and top-to-top. ii) Of these, the writhed and top-to-top types tend to show high flare activity. iii) As the signs of twist and writhe agree with each other in most cases of the writhed type (12 cases out of 13), we propose a magnetic model in which the emerging flux regions in a βγδAR are not separated, but are united as a single structure below the solar surface. iv) Almost all the writhed-type ARs have downward knotted structures in the middle part of the magnetic flux tube. This is probably the essential property of βγδ ARs. v) The flare activity of βγδ ARs is highly correlated not only with the sunspot area, but also with the magnetic complexity. vi) We suggest that there is a possible scaling-law between the flare index and the maximum umbral area.

  13. Middle Atmosphere Response to Different Descriptions of the 11-Year Solar Cycle in Spectral Irradiance in a Chemistry-Climate Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swartz, W. H.; Stolarski, R. S.; Oman, L. D.; Fleming, E. L.; Jackman, C. H.

    2012-01-01

    The 11-year solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3-6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response 50 using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOS CCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the

  14. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1986-01-01

    Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  15. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1984-01-01

    Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  16. Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2009-01-01

    Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

  17. Coupling and Correlation-analysis Between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres' Solar Cycle Features based on Sunspot Area Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, W. N.; Dikpati, M.

    2014-12-01

    Vast literature on Babcock-Leighton flux-transport dynamo models indicate that the sunspot activity cycles in the Northern and Southern hemispheres are primarily decoupled about the equator and are independent of each other. However, we find from the analysis of long-term sunspot area data from 1875 to 2013 that the two hemispheres continuously attempt to couple about the equator. If we define the coupling line as the line where the sunspot area of the two hemispheres is the same on the plot of North versus South spot-area, we find that the two hemispheres' spot-area tend to fall on the coupling line over a very long period of time, despite their short-term traversal away from the coupling line. This indicates that there must be some underlying process inside the Sun's interior which is causing this coupling. Further analysis of the features, such as rise and decay times of solar cycles, minima and peak amplitudes, reveal that the solar cycles normally follow a saw-tooth pattern with a fast rise and slow fall, as noted before. Most interestingly, we find that rise-time in one hemisphere correlates with minima-amplitude of the other hemisphere, but anti-correlates with that of the same hemisphere. We speculate that this happens because the fast rise of a cycle can annihilate the opposite-hemisphere's flux faster, leading to a lower minima-amplitude. By contrast, the peak of a cycle does not have much influence on minima-amplitude of the opposite hemisphere. We are investigating the physics behind these features through dynamo simulations.

  18. Short Periodicities in Latitudinal Variation of Sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Bang-Yeop; Chang, Heon-Young

    2011-06-01

    The latitudinal variation of sunspots appearing during the period from 1874 to 2009 has been studied in terms of centerof- latitude (COL). The butterfly diagram has been used to study the evolution of the magnetic field and the dynamics at the bottom of the solar convection zone. Short-term periodicities have been of particular interest, in that they are somehow related to the structure and dynamics of the solar interior. We thus have focused our investigation on shortterm periodicities. We first calculated COL by averaging the latitude of sunspots with the weight function in area. Then, we analyzed the time series of COL using the wavelet transform technique. We found that a periodicity of ~5 years is the most dominant feature in the time series of COL, with the exception of the ~11 year solar cycle itself. This periodicity can be easily understood by considering small humps between the minima in the area-weighted butterfly diagram. However, we find that periodicities of ~1.3 (0.064), ~1.5 (0.056), or ~1.8 (0.046) years ( 1/ month ), which have been previously suggested as evidence of links between the changing structure of the sunspot zone and the tachocline rotation rate oscillations, are insignificant and inconsistent. We therefore conclude that the only existing short-term periodicity is of ~5 years, and that periodicities of ~1.3, ~1.5, or ~1.8 years are likely to be artifacts due to random noise of small sunspots.

  19. Soil carbon and nitrogen cycling and storage throughout the soil profile in a sweetgum plantation after 11 years of CO2-enrichment

    SciTech Connect

    Iversen, Colleen M; Keller, Dr. Jason K.; Garten Jr, Charles T; Norby, Richard J

    2012-01-01

    Increased partitioning of carbon (C) to fine roots under elevated [CO2], especially deep in the soil profile, could alter soil C and nitrogen (N) cycling in forests. After more than 11 years of free-Air CO2 enrichment in a Liquidambar styraciflua L. (sweetgum) plantation in Oak Ridge, TN, USA, greater inputs of fine roots resulted in the incorporation of new C (i.e., C with a depleted 13C) into root-derived particulate organic matter (POM) pools to 90-cm depth. Even though production in the sweetgum stand was limited by soil N availability, soil C and N content increased over time, and were greater throughout the soil profile under elevated [CO2] at the conclusion of the experiment. However, greater C inputs under elevated [CO2] did not result in increased net N immobilization or C mineralization rates in long-term laboratory incubations, and did not appear to prime the decomposition of older SOM. The 13CO2 of the C mineralized from the incubated soil closely tracked the 13C of the labile POM pool in the elevated [CO2] treatment, especially in shallower soil, and did not indicate the decomposition of older (i.e., pre-experiment) SOM. While potential C mineralization rates were positively and linearly related to total soil organic matter (SOM) C content in the top 30 cm of soil, this relationship did not hold in deeper soil. Taken together with an increased mean residence time of C in deeper soil pools, these findings indicate that C inputs from relatively deep roots under elevated [CO2] may have increased potential for long-term storage. Expanded representation of biogeochemical cycling throughout the soil profile may improve model projections of future forest responses to rising atmospheric [CO2].

  20. The theory of sunspots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, John H.; Weiss, Nigel O.

    1992-01-01

    This review covers the present state of our theoretical understanding of the physics of sunspots, along with the principal observational results that need to be explained. The topics covered range from the detailed structure of an individual sunspot to the broad connection between sunspots and the global solar magnetic field and the solar cycle. Our aim is to give a critical discussion of the theoretical ideas and models without presenting mathematical details. After outlining the historical development of the basic concepts associated with the magnetohydrodynamic theory of sunspots, we discuss recent treatments of their properties and structure, placing special emphasis on developments that have occurred within the last ten years. There have been remarkable improvements in the theoretical modelling of sunspots, led by new ideas and by more elaborate and realistic numerical simulations. At the same time, new observations have raised new theoretical questions or caused old ones to be reconsidered. In particular, measurements of oscillations in and around sunspots have opened up the new field of sunspot seismology, while recent high-resolution observations have forced us to rethink the structure of a sunspot penumbra.

  1. Observations of intermediate- and high-degree p-mode oscillations during sunspot cycles 21 and 22

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhodes, E. J.; Cacciani, A.; Korzennik, S. G.

    1991-01-01

    Extensive time series of resolved solar images have been available for helioseismological investigations since the late 1970's. The paper presents examples of the frequencies, power levels, modal energies, and widths of solar intermediate-degree and high-degreee p-modes obtained at the Mt. Wilson Observatory's 60-Foot Solar Tower Telescope during the rising phase of the current sunspot cycle. It is shown that the inclusion of frequency splittings from the high-degree p-modes has made it possible to demonstrate that the sun's internal equatorial angular velocity is not constant with radius but varies systematically with radius throughout the solar convection zone and below.

  2. Trend estimation and univariate forecast of the sunspot numbers: Development and comparison of ARMA, ARIMA and Autoregressive Neural Network models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Jhajharia, Deepak; Chattopadhyay, Goutami

    2011-07-01

    In the present study, a prominent 11-year cycle, supported by the pattern of the autocorrelation function and measures of Euclidean distances, in the mean annual sunspot number time series has been observed by considering the sunspot series for the duration of 1749 to 2007. The trend in the yearly sunspot series, which is found to be non-normally distributed, is examined through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. A statistically significant increasing trend is observed in the sunspot series in annual duration. The results indicate that the performance of the autoregressive neural network-based model is much better than the autoregressive moving average and autoregressive integrated moving average-based models for the univariate forecast of the yearly mean sunspot numbers.

  3. Statistical properties of H-alpha and HXR flares in the cycle 23 in relation to sunspots and active regions detected from the Solar Feature Catalogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkova, V.; Zharkov, S.

    2006-12-01

    The statistical properties of H-alpha and hard X-ray solar flares are investigated in relation to the cycle variations in 1996-2006 of sunspots and active regions (plages) obtained from the automated Soar Feature Catalogues (SFC, http://solar.inf.brad.ac.uk). Cross-correlation analysis is carried out between flare sizes, locations, significance and active region/sunspot parameters including magnetic field extracted in SFC. Sunspot and plage area distributions reveals a strong North-South asymmetry of about 0.2 and the period of about 7-8 years for sunspots and of 0.5 and period of 9 years for plages with both asymmetries decreasing towards the next cycle minimum. The temporal distribution of solar flare occurrences in Northern and Southern hemispheres, at different latitudes and longitudes are compared with those of plage and sunspot areas and LOS magnetic fields. The spectral indices of HXR and gamma-ray emission wer used to estimate magnetic field components and their variations with the cycle. The application of these results to the solar activity forecast is discussed.

  4. Latitudinal variations of sunspots and active regions in the cycle 23 and the periodicity of a global magnetic field of the Sun

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkov, S. I.; Gavryuseva, E.; Zharkova, V. V.

    We investigate latitudinal activity of sunspots and plages in the cycle 23 extracted from the Solar Feature Catalogues underline http solar inf brad ac uk and compare them with large scale magnetic field variations extracted from the MDI and WSO magnetograms The area and magnetic field variations in time and cumulitative variations in the butterfly diagrams for sunspots and plages are compared with the zone structure and periodicity of the global magnetic field detected by different instruments for the cycles 23 MDI and WSO and 22 WSO The results are discussed in applications to the theoretical dynamo models

  5. The possible mechanism of the "stratospheric bridge" modulation by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in early winter and the QBO, 11-year solar cycle in late winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jadin, Evgeny; Wei, Ke; Chen, Wen; Wang, Lin

    Questions of the interannual variations of the extra-tropical stratospheric dynamics, its rela-tionship with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific (Pacific Decadal Oscillation -PDO) in early winter (November-December), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) (Holton-Tan relations), a decadal modulation by the 11-year Solar Cycle (SC) (Labitzke, van Loon -LvL correlations) in late winter (January-February) are discussed. In early winter, the interannual changes of the planetary wave activity define partly the variations of the strato-spheric circulation in subsequent January [Zyulyaeva and Jadin, 2009]. The interannual and decadal variations of the stratospheric wave activity appear to be associated with those of the PDO [Jadin et al. 2009]. A decadal period from the mid-1970s to mid-1990s of the violation of the Holton-Tan (HT) relationship corresponds well to that of the positive PDO phase (anoma-lously cold SSTs in the central North Pacific). Using the NCEP and ERA-40 monthly mean reanalysis datasets, the three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm fluxes are calculated. The results of the analysis of relations between the upward/downward propagation of planetary waves in the lower stratosphere ("stratospheric bridge"), their interaction with the zonal wind and the HT and LvL correlations for January-February are presented. In contrast with early winter, the large role in the wave-zonal flow interaction plays the downward propagation of planetary waves from the stratosphere to the troposphere over Canada and North Atlantic ("stratospheric wave hole") responsible for the sink of the eddy energy from the stratosphere. One can suggest that there are two dominant regimes in the stratosphere-troposphere coupling in late winter: 1) the "ventilation regime" with the strong penetration of planetary waves from the troposphere over north Eurasia and their strong downward propagation over Canada and North Atlantic, and 2) the "blocking regime" with the weak those

  6. Sunspot dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, John H.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of this research was the understanding of the various oscillatory, transient, and quasi-steady motions in sunspots and the basic structure of a sunspot. The research involved both theoretical modeling (based on thermohydrodynamic theory) and observations of dynamical phenomena in sunspots. The principal topics of the research were sunspot seismology (the interaction of solar p-modes with a sunspot as a probe of the subsurface structure of a sunspot); three minute umbral oscillations and their relation to the structure of the umbral atmosphere; siphon flows in isolated magnetic flux tubes and their relation to the photospheric Evershed flow and to intense magnetic elements outside of sunspots; and more general theoretical work on magneto-atmospheric waves. Here, a summary of results is given.

  7. Sunspot dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, John H.

    1993-01-01

    This report describes recent results of our theoretical and observational work on dynamical phenomena in sunspots. The overall goal of this research has been a better understanding of the various oscillatory, transient, and steady motions in a sunspot and their relation to the basic structure of the sunspot. The principal topics of the research reported here are the following: (1) sunspot seismology, i.e., the study of the interaction of solar p-modes with a sunspot as a probe of the subsurface structure of a sunspot; (2) local sources of acoustic waves in the solar photosphere; and (3) siphon flows in isolated magnetic flux tubes and their relation to the photospheric Evershed flow and to intense magnetic elements outside of sunspots.

  8. Estimating the Mean Annual Surface Air Temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, and the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for Sunspot Cycle 24, the Current Ongoing Sunspot Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    As noted by Gray et al., Sir William Herschel was the first to suggest a possible close connection between the Sun and the Earth’s climate. The Sun, being the source of energy that impacts and drives the Earth’s climate system, displays a variety of changes over both short and long term time scales, the most obvious examples being the somewhat regular waxing and waning of sunspots with time (i.e., the sunspot cycle (SC)), first described by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, a German apothecary and amateur astronomer who observed the Sun from Dessau, Germany, and the now well established variation of the Sun’s irradiance over the SC. Other factors related to the SC have been linked to changes in climate as well. Some of these other factors include the role of cosmic rays and the solar wind (i.e., the geomagnetic cycle) on climate, as well as the apparent close association between trends in global and northern hemispheric temperature and the length of the SC, although some investigators have described the inferred association between climate and, in particular, SC length as now being weak. More recently, Solheim et al. have reported on the relation between SC length and the average temperature in the same and immediately following SC for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. They noted that while they found no significant trend (correlation) between SC length and the average temperature when measured for the same cycle, in contrast, they found a significant negative trend when SC length was compared with the following cycle’s average temperature. From this observation, they suggested that average northern hemispheric temperature during the present ongoing SC (SC24) will be lower by about 0.9 °C than was seen in SC23 (spanning 1996–2007, based on yearly averages of sunspot number (SSN), and onset for SC24 occurring in 2008). The purpose of this Technical Publication (TP) is to examine the annual variations of the Armagh

  9. Visual Circular Analysis of 266 Years of Sunspot Counts.

    PubMed

    Buelens, Bart

    2016-06-01

    Sunspots, colder areas that are visible as dark spots on the surface of the Sun, have been observed for centuries. Their number varies with a period of ∼11 years, a phenomenon closely related to the solar activity cycle. Recently, observation records dating back to 1749 have been reassessed, resulting in the release of a time series of sunspot numbers covering 266 years of observations. This series is analyzed using circular analysis to determine the periodicity of the occurrence of solar maxima. The circular analysis is combined with spiral graphs to provide a single visualization, simultaneously showing the periodicity of the series, the degree to which individual cycle lengths deviate from the average period, and differences in levels reached during the different maxima. This type of visualization of cyclic time series with varying cycle lengths in which significant events occur periodically is broadly applicable. It is aimed particularly at science communication, education, and public outreach. PMID:27441713

  10. Characterizing and modeling magnetic flux transport in the sun's photosphere and determining its impact on the sunspot cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Upton, Lisa A.

    The characterization and modeling of magnetic flux transport within the surface layers of the Sun are vital to explaining the sunspot cycle. The Sun's polar fields at solar cycle minimum are the seeds of the next solar cycle: weak polar fields produce weak cycles. Magnetic flux transport is key to the buildup of the polar fields and the subsequent magnetic reversals that are essential to modulating the sunspot cycle. The primary goals of this dissertation are threefold: 1. Make precise measurements of the Sun's axisymmetric flows (i.e., differential rotation and meridional flow). 2. Create a realistic surface flux transport model that reproduces the magnetic field evolution at the surface by incorporating the observed flows. 3. Investigate the role of flux transport in modulating the polar fields, and thereby the solar activity cycle. This work has been done in collaboration with Dr. David H. Hathaway of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. In Chapter 1, I provide an introduction to the Sun as a star. I begin with a discussion on stellar structure and evolution. I then discuss the techniques and instruments that have been used to study the Sun. I conclude Chapter 1 with a section on magnetic activity cycles on the Sun and in other stars. Magnetic flux on the Sun is transported by supergranular flows and the axisymmetric flows of differential rotation (DR) and meridional flow (MF). In Chapter 2, I introduce these flows. I then show a derivation of the Surface Flux Transport equation starting from Maxwell's equations and Ohm's Law. I conclude this chapter with an introduction to prior Surface Flux Transport models. In Chapter 3, I discuss a cross-correlation technique that we have used on magnetograms (maps of the magnetic field strengths over the surface of the Sun) to characterize the DR and MF and their variations from 1996 to present. Results show that while variability in DR is negligible, the MF varies in two fundamental ways: over the course of a solar cycle and

  11. Sunspot visibility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaefer, Bradley E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper advances a detailed theory of sunspot visibility based on the physiology of the human eye. It is found that the average person under optimal conditions can detect a sunspot whose penumbral diameter is as small as 27 arcsec. The technique for filtering the sunlight, the observer's diet, age, and amount of close-up reading will not change sunspot visibility in practical cases, so the modern observations and theory are fully comparable with the ancient Chinese observations.

  12. THE RECENT REJUVENATION OF THE SUN’S LARGE-SCALE MAGNETIC FIELD: A CLUE FOR UNDERSTANDING PAST AND FUTURE SUNSPOT CYCLES

    SciTech Connect

    Sheeley, N. R. Jr.; Wang, Y.-M.

    2015-08-20

    The quiet nature of sunspot cycle 24 was disrupted during the second half of 2014 when the Sun’s large-scale field underwent a sudden rejuvenation: the solar mean field reached its highest value since 1991, the interplanetary field strength doubled, and galactic cosmic rays showed their strongest 27-day modulation since neutron-monitor observations began in 1957; in the outer corona, the large increase of field strength was reflected by unprecedentedly large numbers of coronal loops collapsing inward along the heliospheric current sheet. Here, we show that this rejuvenation was not caused by a significant increase in the level of solar activity as measured by the smoothed sunspot number and CME rate, but instead was caused by the systematic emergence of flux in active regions whose longitudinal distribution greatly increased the Sun’s dipole moment. A similar post-maximum increase in the dipole moment occurred during each of the previous three sunspot cycles, and marked the start of the declining phase of each cycle. We note that the north–south component of this peak dipole moment provides an early indicator of the amplitude of the next cycle, and conclude that the amplitude of cycle 25 may be comparable to that of cycle 24, and well above the amplitudes obtained during the Maunder Minimum.

  13. Variability of sunspot cycle QBO and total ozone over high altitude western Himalayan regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ningombam, Shantikumar Singh

    2011-10-01

    Long-term trend of total column ozone at high altitude region in Ladakh is studied, using a total ozone mapping spectrometer and an ozone monitoring instrument during 1979-2008. In the region, total ozone exhibits seasonality with maximum in spring and minimum in autumn. The decreasing trend of total ozone was found as -2.51±0.45% per decade with 95% confidence level in the region. Ozone deficiency in the Ladakh region is strongest (-33.9 DU at Hanle) in May and weakest (-11.5 DU at Hanle) in January-February. In the study, the solar maximum in 1990 is in phase with ozone maximum, while ozone variation lags in phase with the 1980 and 2000 solar maxima. However, a significant correlation between total ozone and sunspot number is achieved in the westerly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation during spring season. Decreasing trend of ozone in the region is correlating well with the cooling rate in the lower stratosphere.

  14. On the dynamics of the large-scale magnetic fields of the sun and the sunspot cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mouradian, Z.; Soru-Escaut, I.

    1991-11-01

    The purpose of the present article is to analyze the solar activity cycle from the point of view of large-scale magnetic fields (LSMFs), i.e., the 'polarity background' (unipolar magnetic regions) and the 'polar islands' (bipolar magnetic regions) with or without active regions. Using synoptic charts of the magnetic field (Stanford, McIntosh) and daily KPNO and Mount Wilson observations, a scenario has been developed that is based on the dynamics of the LSMFs. The activity cycle appears to be asymmetrical, with the north polar background predominating at the minimum and the south polar background at the maximum. The polarity islands in the background cover a large area and as they develop, they 'push' the magnetic field background toward the poles and thereby establish an equator-to-pole circulation at the solar surface. This circulation is also affected by the differential rotation of the sun. A fractal dimension analysis shows that the polarity islands become 'turbulent' as sunspot activity.

  15. Multifractal Analysis of Sunspot Number Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasde, Satish Kumar; Gwal, Ashok Kumar; Sondhiya, Deepak Kumar

    2016-07-01

    Multifractal analysis based approaches have been recently developed as an alternative framework to study the complex dynamical fluctuations in sunspot numbers data including solar cycles 20 to 23 and ascending phase of current solar cycle 24.To reveal the multifractal nature, the time series data of monthly sunspot number are analyzed by singularity spectrum and multi resolution wavelet analysis. Generally, the multifractility in sunspot number generate turbulence with the typical characteristics of the anomalous process governing the magnetosphere and interior of Sun. our analysis shows that singularities spectrum of sunspot data shows well Gaussian shape spectrum, which clearly establishes the fact that monthly sunspot number has multifractal character. The multifractal analysis is able to provide a local and adaptive description of the cyclic components of sunspot number time series, which are non-stationary and result of nonlinear processes. Keywords: Sunspot Numbers, Magnetic field, Multifractal analysis and wavelet Transform Techniques.

  16. Sunspots, El Niño, and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stager, J. Curt; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Conway, Declan; Verburg, Piet; Mason, Peter J.

    2007-08-01

    An association of high sunspot numbers with rises in the level of Lake Victoria, East Africa, has been the focus of many investigations and vigorous debate during the last century. In this paper, we show that peaks in the ~11-year sunspot cycle were accompanied by Victoria level maxima throughout the 20th century, due to the occurrence of positive rainfall anomalies ~1 year before solar maxima. Similar patterns also occurred in at least five other East African lakes, which indicates that these sunspot-rainfall relationships were broadly regional in scale. Although irradiance fluctuations associated with the sunspot cycle are weak, their effects on tropical rainfall could be amplified through interactions with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation systems, including ENSO. If this Sun-rainfall relationship persists in the future, then sunspot cycles can be used for long-term prediction of precipitation anomalies and associated outbreaks of insect-borne disease in much of East Africa. In that case, unusually wet rainy seasons and Rift Valley Fever epidemics should occur a year or so before the next solar maximum, which is expected to occur in 2011-2012 AD.

  17. Prediction of ionospheric scintillation using neural network over East African region during ascending phase of sunspot cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taabu, S. D.; D'ujanga, F. M.; Ssenyonga, T.

    2016-04-01

    VHF and GPS-SCINDA receivers located both at Nairobi (36.8°E, 1.3°S) in Kenya and at Kampala (32.57°E, 0.335°N) in Uganda were used to investigate ionospheric scintillation and forecast scintillations of a few hundred meter-scale irregularities associated with equatorial ionospheric irregularities for the period 2011 and 2012. VHF scintillations was characterized by long duration of activity and slow fading that lasted till early morning hours (05:00 LT). Furthermore, different percentage occurrence of scintillations in some months were observed, but found that weak scintillation (0.2 sunspot number. The enhancement of pre-midnight scintillations during magnetically disturbed and quiet periods was also observed and found to be seasonal and local time dependent. An attempt was made to develop a model of percentage occurrence of scintillations for the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 using neural network and the modeled data for the occurrence of scintillations was found to match well with original data.

  18. On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

    1996-01-01

    The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.

  19. Accuracy Analysis for Digitized Sunspot Hand-drawing Records of Purple Mountain Observatory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, R. Y.; Zhou, T. H.; Ji, K. F.

    2016-05-01

    Sunspot is the most significant feature in solar disk, and the earliest record of the solar activities. It has been systematically observed for about 400 years after the invention of telescopes. The long-term evolution of solar activities, especially the 11 year solar cycle, has been obtained based on these data to a great extent. In recent years, the historical hand-drawing records of sunspot are processed digitally for permanent preserving and computer processing. The hand-drawing records of sunspot will be eventually replaced by the CCD image in the future, therefore it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy of hand-drawing records by comparing them with the CCD image. In this study, 189 digital hand-drawing records of sunspot observed by Purple Mountain Observatory in 2011 are analyzed. The results include: (1) the scanner scale difference between horizontal and vertical directions is 0.2%; (2) the ring of the Sun on the recording paper is not a perfect circle, and the diameter in the east-west direction is 1% shorter than that in the north-south direction; (3) the orientation error of the record paper can reach up to 0.5 degree in scanning. After comparing the sunspot position of hand-drawing records with the simultaneous SDO/HMI (Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) images of continuous spectrum by overlapping method, we find that the accuracy of sunspot position in hand-drawing record is about 7 arcsec. There are roughly 3% of the hand-drawing sunspots whose corresponding sunspots in SDO/HMI images can not be found.

  20. The stability of decametric type III burst parameters over the 11-year solar activity cycle - The frequency drift rate of radio bursts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abranin, E. P.; Bazelyan, L. L.; Tsybko, Y. G.

    1990-02-01

    Results are presented from measurements of the frequency drift rates for the maximum of the solar type III and IIIb-III bursts in the 25-12.5 MHz range during the period from 1973 to 1984. In the decameter wavelength range, the frequency drift rate is proportional to the value of observational frequency and has a weak dependence on the type of phase within the 11-yr solar cycle. The results are compared with results for the hectometer range, showing that the hectometer type II burst generation process generally occurs at the first harmonic. Data on the frequency dependence of the drift rates at hectometer and decameter wavelengths are consistent with the generation of type II bursts in the streamer at a burst source speed of about 0.3 s.

  1. Egeson’s (George’s) transtridecadal weather cycling and sunspots

    PubMed Central

    Halberg, F.; Cornélissen, G.; Bernhardt, K.-H.; Sampson, M.; Schwartzkopff, O.; Sonntag, D.

    2011-01-01

    In the late 19th century, Charles Egeson, a map compiler at the Sydney Observatory, carried out some of the earliest research on climatic cycles, linking them to about 33-year cycles in solar activity, and predicted that a devastating drought would strike Australia at the turn of the 20th century. Eduard Brückner and William J. S. Lockyer, who, like Egeson, found similar cycles, with notable exceptions, are also, like the map compiler, mostly forgotten. But the transtridecadal cycles are important in human physiology, economics and other affairs and are particularly pertinent to ongoing discusions of climate change. Egeson’s publication of daily weather reports preceded those officially recorded. Their publication led to clashes with his superiors and his personal life was marked by run-ins with the law and, possibly, an implied, but not proven, confinement in an insane asylum and premature death. We here track what little is known of Egeson’s life and of his bucking of the conventional scientific wisdom of his time with tragic results. PMID:21547003

  2. Sunspot random walk and 22-year variation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua

    2012-01-01

    We examine two stochastic models for consistency with observed long-term secular trends in sunspot number and a faint, but semi-persistent, 22-yr signal: (1) a null hypothesis, a simple one-parameter random-walk model of sunspot-number cycle-to-cycle change, and, (2) an alternative hypothesis, a two-parameter random-walk model with an imposed 22-yr alternating amplitude. The observed secular trend in sunspots, seen from solar cycle 5 to 23, would not be an unlikely result of the accumulation of multiple random-walk steps. Statistical tests show that a 22-yr signal can be resolved in historical sunspot data; that is, the probability is low that it would be realized from random data. On the other hand, the 22-yr signal has a small amplitude compared to random variation, and so it has a relatively small effect on sunspot predictions. Many published predictions for cycle 24 sunspots fall within the dispersion of previous cycle-to-cycle sunspot differences. The probability is low that the Sun will, with the accumulation of random steps over the next few cycles, walk down to a Dalton-like minimum. Our models support published interpretations of sunspot secular variation and 22-yr variation resulting from cycle-to-cycle accumulation of dynamo-generated magnetic energy.

  3. Sunspot random walk and 22-year variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua

    2012-05-01

    We examine two stochastic models for consistency with observed long-term secular trends in sunspot number and a faint, but semi-persistent, 22-yr signal: (1) a null hypothesis, a simple one-parameter log-normal random-walk model of sunspot-number cycle-to-cycle change, and, (2) an alternative hypothesis, a two-parameter random-walk model with an imposed 22-yr alternating amplitude. The observed secular trend in sunspots, seen from solar cycle 5 to 23, would not be an unlikely result of the accumulation of multiple random-walk steps. Statistical tests show that a 22-yr signal can be resolved in historical sunspot data; that is, the probability is low that it would be realized from random data. On the other hand, the 22-yr signal has a small amplitude compared to random variation, and so it has a relatively small effect on sunspot predictions. Many published predictions for cycle 24 sunspots fall within the dispersion of previous cycle-to-cycle sunspot differences. The probability is low that the Sun will, with the accumulation of random steps over the next few cycles, walk down to a Dalton-like minimum. Our models support published interpretations of sunspot secular variation and 22-yr variation resulting from cycle-to-cycle accumulation of dynamo-generated magnetic energy.

  4. A Statistical Test of Uniformity in Solar Cycle Indices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway David H.

    2012-01-01

    Several indices are used to characterize the solar activity cycle. Key among these are: the International Sunspot Number, the Group Sunspot Number, Sunspot Area, and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. A valuable aspect of these indices is the length of the record -- many decades and many (different) 11-year cycles. However, this valuable length-of-record attribute has an inherent problem in that it requires many different observers and observing systems. This can lead to non-uniformity in the datasets and subsequent erroneous conclusions about solar cycle behavior. The sunspot numbers are obtained by counting sunspot groups and individual sunspots on a daily basis. This suggests that the day-to-day and month-to-month variations in these numbers should follow Poisson Statistics and be proportional to the square-root of the sunspot numbers themselves. Examining the historical records of these indices indicates that this is indeed the case - even with Sunspot Area and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. The ratios of the RMS variations to the square-root of the indices themselves are relatively constant with little variation over the phase of each solar cycle or from small to large solar cycles. There are, however, important step-like changes in these ratios associated with changes in observer and/or observer system. Here we show how these variations can be used to construct more uniform datasets.

  5. Hemispheric sunspot unit area: comparison with hemispheric sunspot number and sunspot area

    SciTech Connect

    Li, K. J.; Xiang, N. B.; Qu, Z. N.; Xie, J. L.

    2014-03-01

    The monthly mean northern and southern hemispheric sunspot numbers (SNs) and sunspot areas (SAs) in the time interval of 1945 January to 2012 December are utilized to construct the monthly northern and southern hemispheric sunspot unit areas (SUAs), which are defined as the ratio of hemispheric SA to SN. Hemispheric SUAs are usually found to rise at the beginning and to fall at the ending time of a solar cycle more rapidly, forming a more irregular cycle profile than hemispheric SNs and SAs, although it also presents Schwabe-cycle-like hemispheric SNs and SAs. Sunspot activity (SN, SA, and SUA) is found asynchronously and is asymmetrically distributed in the northern and southern hemispheres, and hemispheric SNs, SAs, and SUAs are not in phase in the two hemispheres. The similarity of hemispheric SNs and SAs is found to be much more obvious than that of hemispheric SUAs and SNs (or SAs), and also for their north-south asymmetry. A notable feature is found for the behavior of the SUA around the minimum time of cycle 24: the SUA rapidly decreases from the cycle maximum value to the cycle minimum value of sunspot cycles 19-24 within just 22 months.

  6. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and their relationship with sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rojo-Garibaldi, Berenice; Salas-de-León, David Alberto; Sánchez, Norma Leticia; Monreal-Gómez, María Adela

    2016-10-01

    We present the results of a time series analysis of hurricanes and sunspots occurring from 1749 to 2010. Exploratory analysis shows that the total number of hurricanes is declining. This decline is related to an increase in sunspot activity. Spectral analysis shows a relationship between hurricane oscillation periods and sunspot activity. Several sunspot cycles were identified from the time series analysis.

  7. On the Relationship between Solar Wind Speed, Earthward-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Sunspot Cycle Using 12-Month Moving Averages

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2008-01-01

    For 1996 .2006 (cycle 23), 12-month moving averages of the aa geomagnetic index strongly correlate (r = 0.92) with 12-month moving averages of solar wind speed, and 12-month moving averages of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (halo and partial halo events) strongly correlate (r = 0.87) with 12-month moving averages of sunspot number. In particular, the minimum (15.8, September/October 1997) and maximum (38.0, August 2003) values of the aa geomagnetic index occur simultaneously with the minimum (376 km/s) and maximum (547 km/s) solar wind speeds, both being strongly correlated with the following recurrent component (due to high-speed streams). The large peak of aa geomagnetic activity in cycle 23, the largest on record, spans the interval late 2002 to mid 2004 and is associated with a decreased number of halo and partial halo CMEs, whereas the smaller secondary peak of early 2005 seems to be associated with a slight rebound in the number of halo and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed aaM during the declining portion of cycle 23, RM for cycle 24 is predicted to be larger than average, being about 168+/-60 (the 90% prediction interval), whereas based on the expected aam for cycle 24 (greater than or equal to 14.6), RM for cycle 24 should measure greater than or equal to 118+/-30, yielding an overlap of about 128+/-20.

  8. Naked sunspots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liggett, M.; Zirin, H.

    1983-01-01

    Naked sunspots are spots seen in H-alpha to be devoid of associated plage. In magnetograms and K-line little if any opposite polarity field is found, and in soft X ray images a blank appears in the region of the spot. In almost all cases studied in which naked spots resulted the spot groups had emerged in unipolar regions of the same polarity as the naked spot. At least half of the naked spots are associated with coronal holes. The naked spots are long-lived and show rotation rates close to the Newton-Nunn curve. Most of the naked spots had bright rims in H-alpha, and the one spot observed to disappear left no trace in the background magnetic field. These spots may be a means by which separation of p from f magnetic polarity occurs.

  9. TEMPORAL STABILITY OF SUNSPOT UMBRAL INTENSITIES: 1986-2012

    SciTech Connect

    De Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Cookson, A. M.; Preminger, D.

    2013-07-10

    We examine the relative intensity of sunspot umbrae during the period from 1986 to 2012 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We confirm the presence of a relationship between the mean umbral core intensity and the mean sunspot area, as found in previous studies, and do not find a notable change in this relationship between cycles 22 and 23. We looked for a possible time variation in the sunspot umbral contrast during the 27 yr covering cycles 22, 23, and the rise of cycle 24, and we did not find a significant change. These findings do not indicate that sunspots have become less dark during cycles 23 and 24.

  10. A preliminary analysis on the dependence of the human diseases on the relative number of sunspot.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Yuehua; Song, Yi

    1996-03-01

    On the basis of the solar-terrestrial relations point of view, the paper investigates the influences of solar activities upon the human race. According to the data of Nanjing Hospital for Infectious Diseases, both the curve of the occurrence of various diseases and the relative number of sunspots with time are drawn, and their related coefficients are calculated. The preliminary results show that the incidences of typhus and scarlet fever keep in step with the 11-year cycle of solar activities, they get the maximum at the same year, while other diseases are not definite.

  11. 11 -year planetary index of solar activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okhlopkov, Victor

    In papers [1,2] introduced me parameter - the average difference between the heliocentric longitudes of planets ( ADL ) , which was used for comparison with solar activity. The best connection of solar activity ( Wolf numbers used ) was obtained for the three planets - Venus, Earth and Jupiter. In [1,2] has been allocated envelope curve of the minimum values ADL which has a main periodicity for 22 years and describes well the alternating series of solar activity , which also has a major periodicity of 22. It was shown that the minimum values of the envelope curve extremes ADL planets Venus, Earth and Jupiter are well matched with the 11- year solar activity cycle In these extremes observed linear configuration of the planets Venus, Earth and Jupiter both in their location on one side of the Sun ( conjunctions ) and at the location on the opposite side of the Sun ( three configurations ) This work is a continuation of the above-mentioned , and here for minimum ADL ( planets are in conjunction ) , as well as on the minimum deviation of the planets from a line drawn through them and Sun at the location of the planets on opposite sides of the Sun , compiled index (denoted for brevity as JEV ) that uniquely describes the 11- year solar cycle A comparison of the index JEV with solar activity during the time interval from 1000 to 2013 conducted. For the period from 1000 to 1699 used the Schove series of solar activity and the number of Wolf (1700 - 2013 ) During the time interval from 1000 to 2013 and the main periodicity of the solar activity and the index ADL is 11.07 years. 1. Okhlopkov V.P. Cycles of Solar Activity and the Configurations of Planets // Moscow University Physics Bulletin, 2012 , Vol. 67 , No. 4 , pp. 377-383 http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&id=doi:10.3103/S0027134912040108. 2 Okhlopkov VP, Relationship of Solar Activity Cycles to Planetary Configurations // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Physics, 2013 , Vol. 77 , No. 5

  12. Classroom Demonstration of Sunspots.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callaway, Thomas O.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    An overhead projector, projection screen, and clear tungsten Filament light bulb operated through a dimmer or variac switch are used to demonstrate the fact that black appearance of sunspots is due only to contrast and that sunspots are bright. (SK)

  13. Generation of a Solar Cycle of Sunspot Metadata Using the AIA Event Detection Framework - A Test of the System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slater, G. L.; Zharkov, S.

    2008-12-01

    The soon-to-be-launched Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will generate roughly 2 TB of image data per day, far more than previous solar missions. Because of the difficulty of widely distributing this enormous volume of data and in order to maximize discovery and scientific return, a sophisticated automated metadata extraction system is being developed at Stanford University and Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory in Palo Alto, CA. A key component in this system is the Event Detection System, which will supervise the execution of a set of feature and event extraction algorithms running in parallel, in real time, on all images recorded by the four telescopes of the key imaging instrument, the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). The system will run on a beowulf cluster of 160 processors. As a test of the new system, we will run feature extraction software developed under the European Grid of Solar Observatories (EGSO) program to extract sunspot metadata from the 12 year SOHO MDI mission archive of full disk continuum and magnetogram images and also from the TRACE high resolution image archive. Although the main goal will be to test the performance of the production line framework, the resulting database will have applications for both research and space weather prediction. We examine some of these applications and compare the databases generated with others currently available.

  14. Spiral sunspot spotted

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    A pinwheel-shaped sunspot sighted by astronomers at Kitt Peak National Observatory has been labeled by veteran solar observers as ‘unprecedented,’ according to the National Science Foundation. The sunspot, with a diameter about 6 times that of the earth, was spotted on February 19 with the vacuum solar telescope at Kitt Peak.The average sunspot, which usually appears in photographs as an irregularly shaped dark hole, has a diameter of about 9600 km. The spiral sunspot's diameter approximated 80,450 km. It maintained its shape for about 2 days before it broke up and changed form.

  15. Sunspots and Snowfall

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Starr, Richard R.

    1978-01-01

    Examination of the snowfall and total precipitation data for Rochester, New York, suggests a correlation with sunspot activity. Data from other locations tend to support the thesis, but the ability to predict yearly snowfall or total precipitation amounts from sunspot activity has yet to be developed. (Author/CP)

  16. SOLAR VARIABILITY FROM 240 TO 1750 nm IN TERMS OF FACULAE BRIGHTENING AND SUNSPOT DARKENING FROM SCIAMACHY

    SciTech Connect

    Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

    2009-08-01

    The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.

  17. Solar Variability from 240 to 1750 nm in Terms of Faculae Brightening and Sunspot Darkening from SCIAMACHY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

    2009-08-01

    The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.

  18. Long-term Trend of Sunspot Numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, P. X.

    2016-10-01

    Using the Hilbert–Huang Transform method, we investigate the long-term trend of yearly mean total sunspot numbers in the time interval of 1700–2015, which come from the World Data Center—the sunspot Index and long-term solar observations. The main findings of this study are summarized below. (1) From the adaptive trend, which is extracted from the yearly mean total sunspot numbers, we can find that the value gradually increases during the time period 1700–1975, then decreases gradually from 1975 to 2015. (2) The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle is extracted from the yearly mean total sunspot numbers and confirms that a new grand minimum is in progress; the Dalton Minimum, the Gleissberg Minimum, and low level of solar activity during solar cycle 24 (the part of the new grand minimum) all can be understood as minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle. (3) Based on the adaptive (overall) trend, and the 100-year and longer timescale trend of yearly mean total sunspot numbers, we can infer that the level of solar activity during the new grand minimum may be close to that during the Gleissberg Minimum, slightly higher than that during the Dalton Minimum, and significantly higher than that during the Maunder Minimum. Our results do not support the suggestion that a new grand minimum, somewhat resembling the Maunder Minimum, is in progress.

  19. Visibility of sunspots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaefer, Bradley E.

    1993-01-01

    The premier record of long-term solar activity is the sunspot count. After developing a theoretical model of sunspot visibility, this model is tested against observations, and recommendations are made for improved calculation of sunspot counts. The theoretical model's result is a predicted threshold size for sunspot visibility with the unaided (but filtered) eye, direct vision through a telescope, pinhole camera, and telescope projection. Also reported are over 3250 days of sunspot observations from six observers, 38 yr of daily observations by an experienced observer, 1837 days of observations from a network with over 50 experienced observers, observations from 30 inexperienced observers, as well as summaries of results from 102 AAVSO solar observers. The comparison of the observed thresholds with the predicted thresholds reveals agreement to within the uncertainties, so that the model is validated by observation.

  20. CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 22-YEAR SOLAR MAGNETIC CYCLE AND THE 22-YEAR QUASICYCLE IN THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE

    SciTech Connect

    Qu Weizheng; Zhao Jinping; Huang Fei; Deng Shenggui

    2012-07-15

    According to the variation pattern of the solar magnetic field polarity and its relation to the relative sunspot number, we established the time series of the sunspot magnetic field polarity index and analyzed the strength and polarity cycle characteristics of the solar magnetic field. The analysis showed the existence of a cycle with about a 22-year periodicity in the strength and polarity of the solar magnetic field, which proved the Hale proposition that the 11-year sunspot cycle is one-half of the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. By analyzing the atmospheric temperature field, we found that the troposphere and the stratosphere in the middle latitude of both the northern and southern hemispheres exhibited a common 22-year quasicycle in the atmospheric temperature, which is believed to be attributable to the 22-year solar magnetic cycle.

  1. Investigations of natural and artificial disturbances in the Earth-ionosphere cavity via VLF radio links for the time span 2009-2015 (sunspot cycle 24)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eichelberger, Hans; Schwingenschuh, Konrad; Besser, B. P.; Prattes, Gustav; Aydogar; Wolbang, Daniel; Rozhnoi, Alexander; Solovieva, Maria; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Boudjada, Mohammed

    2016-07-01

    We focus on natural disturbances of the sub-ionospheric VLF waveguide in the time span 2009 to 2015 (sunspot cycle 24), i.e. variations in amplitude and phase measurements of the radio paths are considered. In particular we're investigating numerous solar flares (up to X-class), geomagnetic storms and substorms, therefore discuss how to discriminate natural from artificial variations between different transmitters and receivers. Meteorological effects could be important [1] and we estimate the possibility to detect the influence of lithospheric sources in the VLF radio links. As part of the VLF multistation network we're using the single receiver mid-latitude station in Graz, Austria. This facility receives up to 12 transmitter simultaneously (frequency range 10-50 kHz), has 20 sec temporal resolution, and is running continuously since 2009 [2]. We obtain the statistics relating VLF amplitude and phase fluctuations with C/M/X-class solar flares, and characterise night time fluctuations in connection with enhanced particle precipitation in the northern latitude path (Iceland transmitter). The statistics is important to improve the quality of seismo-electromagnetic studies. We conclude that for ionospheric perturbations (D-layer), e.g. solar flares, a reliable real time monitoring service can be established. Atmospheric and lithospheric variations are generally difficult to characterise, it's harder to distinguish between natural and man made signals, therefore - as a future outlook - complementary ground and satellite based measurements can deliver valuable additional information for environmental monitoring. References: [1] A. Rozhnoi et al.: Meteorological effects in the lower ionosphere as based on VLF/LF signal observations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2671-2679, 2014. [2] K. Schwingenschuh et al.: The Graz seismo-electromagnetic VLF facility, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1121-1127, 2011.

  2. The 11-year solar radiation rhythm and the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last two centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunck, Heiko; Sirocko, Frank

    2016-04-01

    The study is based on a historical chronology of freezing events in central Europe during the last 230 years (river Rhine (Sirocko et al. 2012), Baltic Sea (Koslowski and Glaser, 1999) and Lake Constance (Dobras, 1983)). These regions display both significant similarities with extremely cold winters in central Germany for the years 1799, 1830, 1895, 1929, 1940, 1942, 1947, 1956 and 1963, as well as regional differences in timing and severity of cold winters. The statistical analysis of all 92 historical freezing events showed that 80 events occurred during a negative NAOwinter phase. The bootstrap test defined the results as extremely significant. To understand the climatic forcing behind the freezing chronology the NAO data set was smoothed by a three point running mean filter and compared with the 11- year cyclicity of the sunspot numbers. A complete NAO cycle can be observed within each solar cycle back to 1960 and from 1820 to 1900. From 1900 to 1960 the correlation between the Sun and NAO was weak. This on/off mode becomes visible only in the smoothed NAO data, when time intervals longer than "normal" weather observations are analysed. Statistical test for the coherence of the entire 230 years are insignificant. However, the relation is highly significant, if only the intervals from 1960 to 2010 and 1830 to 1900 are analysed. The phase correlation can be explained by temperature variations up to +-2.5°C in time series of stratospheric air temperature at 40 km height, where ozone is formed by ultraviolet solar radiation. Advanced analysis of sea surface temperatures from reanalysis data (ECMWF Data Archiv, 2013) between 30° - 40°N and 65° - 75°N indicate similar temperature variations in phase with the solar activity. Consequently, the 11 year solar periodicity is related to various parts of the Earth/Ocean/Atmosphere system and not only to the stratospheric signal. However, the NAO is the dominating mediator to implement a solar component into the

  3. Modeling the Relationship Between Neutron Counting Rates and Sunspot Numbers Using the Hysteresis Effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inceoglu, F.; Knudsen, M. F.; Karoff, C.; Olsen, J.

    2014-04-01

    Several studies show that temporal variations in the Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity display a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The 11-year periodicity of GCRs is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle, implying that there is a time lag between actual solar cycle and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the hysteresis effect to model the relationship between neutron counting rates (NCRs), an indicator of the GCR intensity, and sunspot numbers (SSNs) over the period that covers the last four solar cycles (20, 21, 22, and 23). Both linear and ellipse models were applied to SSNs during odd and even cycles in order to calculate temporal variations of NCRs. We find that ellipse modeling provides higher correlation coefficients for odd cycles compared to linear models, e.g. 0.97, 0.97, 0.92, and 0.97 compared to 0.69, 0.72, 0.53, and 0.68 for data from McMurdo, Swarthmore, South Pole, and Thule neutron monitors, respectively, during solar cycle 21 with overall improvement of 31 % for odd cycles. When combined to a continuous model, the better correlation observed for the odd cycles increases the overall correlation between observed and modeled NCRs. The new empirical model therefore provides a better representation of the relationship between NCRs and SSNs. A major goal of the ongoing research is to use the new non-linear empirical model to reconstruct SSNs on annual time scales prior to 1610, where we do not have observational records of SSNs, based on changes in NCRs reconstructed from 10Be in ice cores.

  4. Sunspot seismology theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davila, Joseph M.

    1990-01-01

    Physical mechanisms proposed to explain the absorption of significant p-mode wave power by sunspots are reviewed, and their viability in view of the current knowledge of the scattering process is discussed. It is concluded that there is no satisfactory theoretical model for the absorption of p-modes by sunspots available at present. It is argued that the resonance absorption model is able to obtain the large absorption coefficients observed for nonaxisymmetric perturbations. For axisymmetric perturbations, departures from perfect cylindrical symmetry or the inclusion of a slight twist in the sunspot flux tube may be able to resolve the problem with the absorption of m = 0 wave modes. Other dissipative models, which do not incorporate the background gradient effects inherent in the resonance absorption mechanism, require inconveniently large dissipation coefficients within the sunspot.

  5. On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2013-01-01

    We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is “statistically significant.” On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are “insignificant.” Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

  6. The Impact Of Torsional Oscillations On The Solar Cycle: The Waldmeier-effect As An Outcome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahajan, Sushant S.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Dwivedi, Bhola N.; Antia, H. M.

    2016-05-01

    Temporal variations in the Sun’s internal velocity field with a periodicity of about 11 years have been observed in the last three decades. The period of these torsional oscillations and their latitudinal propagation roughly coincide with the period and equatorward propagation of sunspots which originate from a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism operating in the Sun’s interior. While the solar differential rotation plays an important role in this dynamo mechanism by inducting the toroidal component of magnetic field, the impact of torsional oscillations on the dynamo mechanism - and hence the solar cycle - is not well understood. Here, we include the observed torsional oscillations into a flux transport dynamo model of the solar cycle to inves- tigate their effect. Although the overall amplitude of the solar cycle does not change significantly on inclusion of torsional oscillations we find that all the characteristics of the Waldmeier effect inthe sunspot cycle are qualitatively reproduced by varying only the amplitude of torsional oscillations. The Waldmeier effect, first noted in 1935, includes the important characteristic that the amplitude of sunspot cycles is anti-correlated to their rise time; cycles with high initial rise rate tend to be stronger. This has implications for solar cycle predictions. Our result suggests that the Waldmeier effect is a plausible outcome of cycle-to-cycle modulation of torsional oscillations and provides a physical basis for sunspot cycle forecasts based on torsional oscillation observations.

  7. Comparing Digital Sunspot Number Counts to the New International Sunspot Numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Henry, Timothy

    2016-05-01

    The International Sunspot Numbers (ISN; Version 2) have been recently (2015) revised at the Sunspot Index and Long Term Solar Observations maintained at Royal Observatory of Belgium (http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles). ISN is a reconciled aggregate over several ground-based observatories, mostly using hand-drawn sunspot recordings. We make a detailed 10-year comparisons between the Improved Solar Observing Optical Network’s prototype digital data (2002-2011) and the ISN V1 (Version 1; pre-2015), and ISN V2. Over the ~ 10-year period, ISN V1 underestimates the sunspot number counts by up to 40% while the ISN V2 overestimates by a similar amount. We also compare the hand-drawn data from a single telescope at the National Solar Observatory with the digital data and ISN numbers. These comparisons reveal caveats that need to be taken into account, as sunspot numbers are used to forecast both the solar cycle and the near term climatology of solar cycle impacts on the space environment.

  8. Coupling of the Matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields of the Sun with Jupiter and its Moons Together in Nearest Portion of Jupiter's Orbit to the Sun as the Main Cause of the Peak of Approximately 11 Yearly Solar Cycles and Hazards from Solar Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gholibeigian, Kazem; Gholibeigian, Hassan

    2016-04-01

    On March 13, 1989 the entire province of Quebec Blackout by solar storm during solar cycle 22. The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington event, was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm during solar cycle 10. The solar storm of 2012 during solar cycle 24 was of similar magnitude, but it passed Earth's orbit without striking the plane. All of these solar storms occurred in the peak of 11 yearly solar cycles. In this way, the White House in its project which is focusing on hazards from solar system, in a new strategy and action plan to increase protection from damaging solar emissions, should focus on coupling of the matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields)GEFs) of the Sun with Jupiter and its moons together. On the other hand, in solar system, the Jupiter's gravity has largest effect to the Sun's core and its dislocation, because the gravity force between the Jupiter and the Sun is 11.834 times, In addition overlapping of the solar cycles with the Jupiter's orbit period is 11.856 years. These observable factors lead us to the effect of the Jupiter and Sun gravity fields coupling as the main cause of the approximately 11 years duration for solar cycles. Its peak in each cycle is when the Jupiter is in nearest portion to the Sun in its orbit. In this way, the other planets in their coupling with Sun help to the variations and strengthening solar cycles. [Gholibeigian, 7/24/2015http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGU]. In other words, the both matched GEFs are generating by the large scale forced convection system inside the stars and planets [Gholibeigian et. al, AGU Fall Meeting 2015]. These two fields are couple and strengthening each other. The Jupiter with its 67 moons generate the largest coupled and matched GEFs in its core and consequently strongest effect on the Sun's core. Generation and coupling of the Jupiter's GEFs with its moons like Europa, Io and Ganymede make this planet of thousands of times brighter and many times bigger than Earth as the

  9. Wave phenomena in sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löhner-Böttcher, Johannes

    2016-03-01

    Context: The dynamic atmosphere of the Sun exhibits a wealth of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. In the presence of strong magnetic fields, most spectacular and powerful waves evolve in the sunspot atmosphere. Allover the sunspot area, continuously propagating waves generate strong oscillations in spectral intensity and velocity. The most prominent and fascinating phenomena are the 'umbral flashes' and 'running penumbral waves' as seen in the sunspot chromosphere. Their nature and relation have been under intense discussion in the last decades. Aims: Waves are suggested to propagate upward along the magnetic field lines of sunspots. An observational study is performed to prove or disprove the field-guided nature and coupling of the prevalent umbral and penumbral waves. Comprehensive spectroscopic observations at high resolution shall provide new insights into the wave characteristics and distribution across the sunspot atmosphere. Methods: Two prime sunspot observations were carried out with the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory in New Mexico and with the Vacuum Tower Telescope at the Teide Observatory on Tenerife. The two-dimensional spectroscopic observations were performed with the interferometric spectrometers IBIS and TESOS. Multiple spectral lines are scanned co-temporally to sample the dynamics at the photospheric and chromospheric layers. The time series (1 - 2.5 h) taken at high spatial and temporal resolution are analyzed according to their evolution in spectral intensities and Doppler velocities. A wavelet analysis was used to obtain the wave power and dominating wave periods. A reconstruction of the magnetic field inclination based on sunspot oscillations was developed. Results and conclusions: Sunspot oscillations occur continuously in spectral intensity and velocity. The obtained wave characteristics of umbral flashes and running penumbral waves strongly support the scenario of slow-mode magnetoacoustic wave propagation along the

  10. A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2012-01-01

    The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2012. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.

  11. A Geomagnetic Precursor Technique for Predicting the Solar Activity Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobel, E. I.; Rabin, D. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Western hemisphere has been recording sunspot numbers since Galileo discovered sunspots in the early 17th century, and the roughly 11-year solar cycle has been recognized since the 19th century. However, predicting the strength of any particular cycle remains a relatively imprecise task. This project's aim was to update and improve a forecasting technique based on geomagnetic precursors of future solar activity The model is a refinement of R. J. Thompson's 1993 paper that relates the number of geomagnetically disturbed days, as defined by the aa and Ap indices, to the sum of the sunspot number in the current and the previous cycle, Rn + Rn-1.[1] The method exploits the fact that two cycles coexist for some period on the Sun near solar minimum and therefore that the number of sunspots and disturbed days during the declining phase of one cycle gives an indication of the following cycle's strength. We wrote and updated IDL software procedures to define disturbed days with varying threshold values and graphed Rn + Rn-1 against them. The aa threshold was derived from the Ap threshold. After comparing the graphs for Ap values from 20 to 50, an Ap threshold of 30 and the corresponding aa threshold of 44 were chosen as yielding the best correlation. Confidence regions were computed to provide a quantitative uncertainty on future predictions. The 80% confidence region gives a range of ±40 in sunspot number. [1] Thompson, R. J. (1993). A technique for predicting the amplitude of the solar cycle. Solar Physics, 148, 2, 383-388.

  12. Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly. A reply to Gil-Alana et al. (2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2014-11-01

    Recently Gil-Alana et al. (2014) compared the sunspot number record and the temperature record and found that they differ: the sunspot number record is characterized by a dominant 11-year cycle while the temperature record appears to be characterized by a “singularity” or “pole” in the spectral density function at the “zero” frequency. Consequently, they claimed that the two records are characterized by substantially different statistical fractional models and rejected the hypothesis that the Sun influences significantly global temperatures. I will show that: (1) the “singularity” or “pole” in the spectral density function of the global surface temperature at the “zero” frequency does not exist-the observed pattern derives from the post 1880 warming trend of the temperature signal and is a typical misinterpretation that discrete power spectra of non-stationary signals can suggest; (2) appropriate continuous periodograms clarify the issue and also show a signature of the 11-year solar cycle (amplitude ≤0.1 °C), which since 1850 has an average period of about 10.4 year, and of many other natural oscillations; (3) the solar signature in the surface temperature record can be recognized only using specific techniques of analysis that take into account non-linearity and filtering of the multiple climate change contributions; (4) the post 1880-year temperature warming trend cannot be compared or studied against the sunspot record and its 11-year cycle, but requires solar proxy models showing short and long scale oscillations plus the contribution of anthropogenic forcings, as done in the literature. Multiple evidences suggest that global temperatures and sunspot numbers are quite related to each other at multiple time scales. Thus, they are characterized by cyclical fractional models. However, solar and climatic indexes are related to each other through complex and non-linear processes. Finally, I show that the prediction of a semi

  13. On the relationship between sunspots number and the flare index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1994-01-01

    During the years 1976-1991, sunspot number and the Kleczek flare index have displayed a strong linear correlation (r = 0.94), one that can be described by the equation y = -0.15 + 0.10 x, where x denotes annual sunspot number. While true, the temporal behaviors of the two parameters have differed, with sunspot number peaking first in 1979 and the flare index peaking much later in 1982 during cycle 21 and with more contemporaneous behavior in cycle 22 (both peaking in 1989, with a secondary peak in 1991). The difference appears to be directly attributable to the way in which the Kleczek flare index has been defined; namely, the annual flare index is the sum of the product of each flare's intensity (importance) times its duration (in minutes) divided by the total number of flares during the year. Because the number of 'major' flares (those of importance greater than or equal to 2) and flares of very long duration (duration greater than or equal to 100 min) both peaked after sunspot maximum (1982/81, respectively) in cycle 21, one should have expected the flare index to also peak (which it did). Likewise, because the number of major flares and flares of very long duration peaked simultaneously with sunspot number (1989) in cycle 22, one should have expected the flare index to also peak (which it did).

  14. Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 4. Discontinuities Around 1946 in Various Sunspot Number and Sunspot-Group-Number Reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lockwood, M.; Owens, M. J.; Barnard, L.

    2016-09-01

    We use five test data series to search for, and quantify, putative discontinuities around 1946 in five different annual-mean sunspot-number or sunspot-group-number data sequences. The data series tested are the original and new versions of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number composite [ R_{ISNv1} and R_{ISNv2}] (respectively Clette et al. in Adv. Space Res. 40, 919, 2007 and Clette et al. in The Solar Activity Cycle 35, Springer, New York, 2015); the corrected version of R ISNv1 proposed by Lockwood, Owens, and Barnard (J. Geophys. Res. 119, 5193, 2014a) [ R C]; the new "backbone" group-number composite proposed by Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys. 291, 2016) [ R_{BB}]; and the new group-number composite derived by Usoskin et al. (Solar Phys. 291, 2016) [ R_{UEA}]. The test data series used are the group-number [ NG] and total sunspot area [ A G] from the Royal Observatory, Greenwich/Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) photoheliographic data; the Ca K index from the recent re-analysis of Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) spectroheliograms in the Calcium uc(ii) K ion line; the sunspot-group-number from the MWO sunspot drawings [ N_{MWO}]; and the dayside ionospheric F2-region critical frequencies measured by the Slough ionosonde [foF2]. These test data all vary in close association with sunspot numbers, in some cases non-linearly. The tests are carried out using both the before-and-after fit-residual comparison method and the correlation method of Lockwood, Owens, and Barnard, applied to annual mean data for intervals iterated to minimise errors and to eliminate uncertainties associated with the precise date of the putative discontinuity. It is not assumed that the correction required is by a constant factor, nor even linear in sunspot number. It is shown that a non-linear correction is required by RC, R_{BB}, and R_{ISNv1, but not by R_{ISNv2} or R_{UEA}. The five test datasets give very similar results in all cases. By multiplying the probability

  15. Sunspot prediction using neural networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Villarreal, James; Baffes, Paul

    1990-01-01

    The earliest systematic observance of sunspot activity is known to have been discovered by the Chinese in 1382 during the Ming Dynasty (1368 to 1644) when spots on the sun were noticed by looking at the sun through thick, forest fire smoke. Not until after the 18th century did sunspot levels become more than a source of wonderment and curiosity. Since 1834 reliable sunspot data has been collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Naval Observatory. Recently, considerable effort has been placed upon the study of the effects of sunspots on the ecosystem and the space environment. The efforts of the Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis Division of the Johnson Space Center involving the prediction of sunspot activity using neural network technologies are described.

  16. Determination of solar cycle length variations using the continuous wavelet transform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fligge, M.; Solanki, S. K.; Beer, J.

    1999-06-01

    The length of the sunspot cycle determined by Friis-Christensen & Lassen (1991) correlates well with indicators of terrestrial climate, but has been criticized as being subjective. In the present paper we present a more objective and general cycle-length determination. Objectivity is achieved by using the continuous wavelet transform based on Morlet wavelets and carrying out a careful error analysis. Greater generality comes from the application of this technique to different records of solar activity, e.g. sunspot number, sunspot area, plage area or (10) Be records. The use of different indicators allows us to track cycle length variations back to the 15th century. All activity indicators give cycle length records which agree with each other within the error bars, whereby the signal due to the solar cycle is weaker within (10) Be than in the other indicators. In addition, all records exhibit cycle length variations which are, within the error bars, in accordance with the record originally proposed by Friis-Christensen & Lassen (1991). In the 16th century, however, the (10) Be record suggests a much longer cycle than the auroral record used by Friis-Christensen & Lassen. Also, the presence of a distinct 11-year cycle in the (10) Be record during the Maunder Minimum is confirmed. By combining the results from all the indicators a composite of the solar cycle length is constructed, which we expect to be more reliable than the length derived from individual records.

  17. Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 3. Effects of Regression Procedures on the Calibration of Historic Sunspot Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lockwood, M.; Owens, M. J.; Barnard, L.; Usoskin, I. G.

    2016-02-01

    We use sunspot-group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups [RB] above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower-acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number [RA] using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB ( r_{AB} > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot-maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of r_{AB}). In generating the backbone sunspot number [R_{BB}], Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys., 2016) force regression fits to pass through the scatter-plot origin, which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot-cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile ("Q-Q") plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least-squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot-group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar-cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

  18. Sunspot Time Series: Passive and Active Intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zięba, S.; Nieckarz, Z.

    2014-07-01

    Solar activity slowly and irregularly decreases from the first spotless day (FSD) in the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and systematically, but also in an irregular way, increases to the new cycle maximum after the last spotless day (LSD). The time interval between the first and the last spotless day can be called the passive interval (PI), while the time interval from the last spotless day to the first one after the new cycle maximum is the related active interval (AI). Minima of solar cycles are inside PIs, while maxima are inside AIs. In this article, we study the properties of passive and active intervals to determine the relation between them. We have found that some properties of PIs, and related AIs, differ significantly between two group of solar cycles; this has allowed us to classify Cycles 8 - 15 as passive cycles, and Cycles 17 - 23 as active ones. We conclude that the solar activity in the PI declining phase (a descending phase of the previous cycle) determines the strength of the approaching maximum in the case of active cycles, while the activity of the PI rising phase (a phase of the ongoing cycle early growth) determines the strength of passive cycles. This can have implications for solar dynamo models. Our approach indicates the important role of solar activity during the declining and the rising phases of the solar-cycle minimum.

  19. Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.

    2000-01-01

    Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

  20. The asymmetry in sunspot area and magnetic flux variations in 1996-2004 extracted from the Solar Feature Catalogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkov, S. I.; Zharkova, V. V.

    2004-12-01

    This research utilizes a searchable Solar Feature Catalogue (SFC) for sunspots created from the SOHO/MDI full disk whitelight images and magnetograms in 1996-2004 using the automated pattern recognition techniques http://www.cyber.brad.ac.uk/egso/. A comparison of sunspot areas from the SFC with the averaged sunspot numbers published in the Sunspot Index Data Centre (SIDC) verified the detected sunspots with their correlation with sunspots areas on agiven day that revealed a very good detection accuracy of 86% for the whole period 1996-2003. The latitudinal (N-S) and longitudinal variations of sunspot areas, a total and resulting, or excess, magnetic flux are presented for the whole period of observations. The total sunspot areas measured from a single solar image have shown to have a strong Northern-Southern asymmetry that reveals the similar trend in the cumulative sunspot areas. At the start of the cycle from 1996 until 1999 the Northern hemisphere area trails the Southern one then followed by a bigger increase of the areas in the Northern hemisphere. The excess magnetic flux confined in sunspots also shows a significant N-S asymmetry being mostly negative in the Southern hemisphere and positive in the Northern one. However, towards the solar minimum in 1996 and in 2003-4 the excess flux becomes positive in the Southern and negative in the Northern hemispheres. These variations of total and excess magnetic fluxes during the solar cycle are compared with a few solar dynamo models.

  1. The distribution of sunspot decay rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez Pillet, V.; Moreno-Insertis, F.; Vazquez, M.

    1993-07-01

    The distribution of sunspot decay rates is studied using the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) for a total of approximately hundred years between 1874 and 1976. The decay rates are seen to be lognormally distributed. The discrepancies between the decay rates given in the past by different authors are shown to originate as a consequence of this asymmetric distribution. It is pointed out that the extended tails shown by the lognormal distributions are associated to spots decaying much faster than suggested by Bumba's (1963) work. A cycle by cycle analysis of the lognormal distributions associated with each sunspot group type and for single spots is presented. The differences between the nine solar cycles involved are studied. As a remarkable property of the decay process, we show that it happens at a nearly constant total to umbral area ratio. This property holds for decaying spots which are still large enough to show a penumbra. We have studied the suitability of a decay law with the instantaneous decay rate proportional to the length of the spot boundary. This law predicts a parabolic decay pattern with some specific characteristics. No definite conclusion in favour of this law is reached, but it is suggested that a linear decay is as weakly supported by the GPR data as a peripheral one. On the other hand, weak non-linearities are seen in the decay of isolated spots with a clear tendency to produce a convex pattern in the area vs. time diagram. The implication is that sunspot decay is braked as time proceeds.

  2. Anomalously extended minima of solar cycle~23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Ambika; Tiwari, Anil Kumar; Agrawal, S. P.

    The new millennium extended solar minimum of solar cycle 23 (2007-2009) contains some distinct surprises and is anomalous in comparison to the past few solar cycles. In general, the level of solar activity goes through the cyclic changes lasting roughly 11 years. The last solar cycle 23 started in the year 1996 and was expected to last until 2006. Nevertheless, the solar activity minima continued beyond the year 2006 and lasted till 2009. In fact, anomalously, during the years 2007-09, a deep sunspot minima was observed at the end of the last solar cycle 23. It is observed that the sun had no sunspots continuously for over 50 days in July-August, 2009. More so, it is found that the solar cycle 23 has the longest quiet period as compared to the last many previous solar cycles. Anomalously low values of the geomagnetic disturbance Ap is observed during the whole quiet period (2007-09) of the sun, particularly in the month of January-September 2009, during which the high speed solar wind streams are also not observed. As such, the past solar cycle 23 seems to have the very long period of about 14 years, which is anomalously distinct from previous four solar cycles, besides the obvious Ap correlation of very low activity. The low values of the sunspot numbers in years 2007-2009 also have a very distinct effect in producing lowest modulation in cosmic ray intensity, with highest values of neutron monitor counts observed in the year 2009, as compared to that observed so far in previous solar cycles. These results are discussed in the light of many associated solar-terrestrial phenomena.

  3. Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 1. Using Ionosonde Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lockwood, M.; Scott, C. J.; Owens, M. J.; Barnard, L.; Willis, D. M.

    2016-02-01

    More than 70 years ago, it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17 - 21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [ R], the new "backbone" group sunspot number [ R_{BB}], and the proposed "corrected sunspot number" [ RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot-number-foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, R_{BB}, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the "Waldmeier discontinuity" around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, R_{BB}, and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18 - 21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for R_{BB}. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, R_{BB}, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932 - 1945, but R_{BB} overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in R_{BB} is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC, and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval.

  4. The new Sunspot and Group Numbers: a full recalibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clette, Frédéric; Svalgaard, Leif; Cliver, Edward W.; Vaquero, José M.; Lefèvre, Laure

    2015-08-01

    After a 4-year research effort, we present here the first end-to-end revision of the Sunspot Number since the creation of this reference index of solar activity by Rudolf Wolf in 1849 and the simultaneous re-calibration of the Group Number, which leads to the elimination of the past incompatibility between those two independent data sets.Most corrections relied entirely on original sunspot data, using various approaches. Newly recovered historical sunspot records were added and a critical data selection was applied for the 17th and 18th century, confirming the low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum. Over the 19th century, the k scaling coefficients of individual observers were recomputed using new statistical methodologies, like the "backbone" method resting on a chain of long-duration observers. After identifying major changes in the observing methods, two major inhomogeneities were corrected in 1884 in the Group Number (~40% upward drift) and in 1947 in the Sunspot Number (~20% overestimate). Finally, a full re-computation of the group and sunspot numbers was done over the last 50 years, using all original data from the 270 stations archived by the World Data Center - SILSO in Brussels.The new Sunspot Number series definitely exclude a progressive rise in average solar activity between the Maunder Minimum and an exceptional Grand Maximum in the late 20th century. Residual differences between the Group and Sunspot Numbers over the past 250 years confirm that they reflect different properties of the solar cycle and that the average number of spots per group varies over time, as it just happened in the recent unexpected evolution of cycles 23 and 24. We conclude on the implications for solar cycle and Earth climate studies and on important new conventions adopted for the new series: new unit scales (constant "heritage" factors 0.6 and 12.08 dropped for the Sunspot and Group Numbers respectively), new SN and GN symbols and a new version-tracking scheme

  5. Temporal Variation of Different Categories Sunspot Groups since 1996: Their Relation with Geomagnetic Ap and Dst Indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, Ali; Ozguc, Atila; Rozelot, Jean Pierre; Donmez, Burcin; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl

    2016-07-01

    We studied the temporal variation of the number of sunspot groups and sunspot counts in these groups in four categories as small (A, B), medium (C), large (D, E, F) and final (H modified Zurich classes) since 1996. Then we compared these data sets with geomagnetic Ap and Dst indices. In results of our analysis we found followings: 1) different categories sunspot groups and sunspot counts in these groups behave differently during a solar cycle. ii) Response of geomagnetic indices to these data sets are also different.

  6. AAVSO Visual Sunspot Observations vs. SDO HMI Sunspot Catalog

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howe, R.

    2014-06-01

    (Abstract only) The most important issue with regard to using the SDO HMI data from the National Solar Observatory (NSO, http://www.nso.edu/staff/fwatson/STARA) is that their current model for creating sunspot counts does not split in groups and consequently does not provide a corresponding group count and Wolf number. As it is a different quantity, it cannot be mixed with the data from our sunspot networks. For the AAVSO with about seventy stations contributing each day, adding HMI sunspot data would anyway hardly change the resulting index. Perhaps, the best use of HMI data is for an external validation, by exploiting the fact that HMI provides a series that is rather close to the sunspot number and is acquired completely independently. So, it is unlikely to suffer from the same problems (jumps, biases) at the same time. This validation only works for rather short durations, as the lifetime of space instruments is limited and aging effects are often affecting the data over the mission. In addition, successive instruments have different properties: for example, the NSO model has not managed yet to reconcile the series from MDI and HMI. There is a ~10-15% jump. The first challenge that should be addressed by AAVSO using HMI data is the splitting in groups and deriving group properties. Then, together with the sunspot counts and areas per group, a lot more analyses and diagnostics can be derived (like the selective disappearance of the smallest sunspots?), that can help interpreting trends in the ratio SSN/other solar indices and many other solar effects.

  7. The Revised Brussels-Locarno Sunspot Number (1981 - 2015)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clette, Frédéric; Lefèvre, Laure; Cagnotti, Marco; Cortesi, Sergio; Bulling, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    In 1981, the production of the international sunspot number moved from the Zürich Observatory to the Royal Observatory of Belgium, with a new pilot station: the Specola Solare Ticinese Observatory in Locarno, Switzerland. This marked a profound transition in the history of the sunspot number. Those recent decades are particularly important as they provide the link between recent modern solar indices and the entire sunspot-number series extending back to the eighteenth century. However, large variations have recently been identified in the scale of the sunspot number during this recent time period. Here, we refine the determination of those recent inhomogeneities by reconstructing a new average sunspot-number series [ SN] from a subset of long-duration stations between 1981 and 2015. We also extend this reconstruction by gathering long time series from 35 stations over 1945 - 2015, thus straddling the critical 1981 transition. In both reconstructions, we also derive a parallel group number series [ GN] built by the same method from exactly the same data set. Our results confirm the variable trends associated with drifts of the Locarno pilot station, which start only in 1983. They lead to a fully uniform SN-series over the entire 1945 - 2015 interval. By comparing the new SN- and GN-series, we find that a constant quadratic relation exists between those two indices over Cycles 19 to 23. Comparisons with a few other solar indices additionally validate this and reveal some possible undetected problems in those series. Using this new reference SN, we find that observing stations are surprisingly grouped among distinct subsets that share similar personal k-scaling coefficients. These various results also open the way to implementing a more advanced method for producing the sunspot number in the future.

  8. SOHO reveals how sunspots take a stranglehold on the Sun

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2001-11-01

    Bernhard Fleck, ESA's project scientist for SOHO, comments, "The origin and stability of sunspots has been one of the long-standing mysteries in solar physics. I am delighted to see that with SOHO we are beginning to crack this problem." The gas flows around and beneath a sunspot have been detected by a team of scientists in the USA, using the Michelsen Doppler Imager (MDI) on SOHO. The instrument explores the solar interior by detecting natural sound waves at a million points on the Sun's surface. "After many years of contradictory theories about sunspots, MDI on SOHO is at last telling us what really happens," comments Junwei Zhao of Stanford University, California, lead author of a report published in the Astrophysical Journal. Inflows and downflows similar to those now detected with SOHO were envisaged in 1974 by Friedrich Meyer of Germany's Max-Planck- Institut für Physik und Astrophysik, and his colleagues. A similar expectation figured in a theory of sunspots advanced in 1979 by Eugene Parker of Chicago. "Our observation seems to provide strong evidence for both predictions," Zhao says. Sunspots have fascinated scientists since Galileo's time, 400 years ago, when they shattered a belief that the Sun was divinely free of any blemish. As symptoms of intense magnetic activity, sunspots are often associated with solar flares and mass ejections that affect space weather and the Earth itself. The Sun's activity peaks roughly every 11 years, and the latest maximum in the sunspot count occurred in 2000. Even with huge advances in helioseismology, which deduces layers and flows inside the Sun by analysis of sound waves that travel through it and agitate the surface, seeing behind the scenes in sunspots was never going to be easy. The MDI team refined a method of measuring the travel time of sound waves, invented in 1993 by Thomas Duvall of NASA Goddard, called solar tomography. It is like deducing what obstacles cross-country runners have faced, just by seeing in

  9. A Comparison Between Global Proxies of the Sun's Magnetic Activity Cycle: Inferences from Helioseismology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broomhall, A.-M.; Nakariakov, V. M.

    2015-11-01

    The last solar minimum was, by recent standards, unusually deep and long. We are now close to the maximum of the subsequent solar cycle, which is relatively weak. In this article we make comparisons between different global (unresolved) measures of the Sun's magnetic activity to investigate how they are responding to this weak-activity epoch. We focus on helioseismic data, which are sensitive to conditions, including the characteristics of the magnetic field, in the solar interior. Also considered are measures of the magnetic field in the photosphere (sunspot number and sunspot area), the chromosphere and corona (10.7 cm radio flux and 530.3 nm green coronal index), and two measures of the Sun's magnetic activity closer to Earth (the interplanetary magnetic field and the galactic cosmic-ray intensity). Scaled versions of the activity proxies diverge from the helioseismic data around 2000, indicating a change in relationship between the proxies. The degree of divergence varies from proxy to proxy, with sunspot area and 10.7 cm flux showing only small deviations, while sunspot number, coronal index, and the two interplanetary proxies show much larger departures. In Cycle 24 the deviations in the solar proxies and the helioseismic data decrease, raising the possibility that the deviations observed in Cycle 23 are just symptomatic of a 22-year Hale cycle. However, the deviations in the helioseismic data and the interplanetary proxies increase in Cycle 24. Interestingly, the divergence in the solar proxies and the helioseismic data are not reflected in the shorter-term variations (often referred to as quasi-biennial oscillations) observed on top of the dominant 11-year solar cycle. However, despite being highly correlated in Cycle 22, the short-term variations in the interplanetary proxies show very little correlation with the helioseismic data during Cycles 23 and 24.

  10. Sunspot Tilt Angles Measured with MDI/SOHO and HMI/SDO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, J.; Ulrich, R. K.

    2015-12-01

    We present sunspot magnetic tilt angles measured from 1996 to the present time, spanning almost two solar cycles. Full disk magnetograms from MDI/SoHO and HMI/SDO are used in our study. The data cadence in our analyses is 96 minutes per day giving about 90 measurements of the tilt angles for each sunspot during the disk passage between -40 to +40 longitudinal degree. In addition to an automated computation, we use a scheme to visually examine each sunspot efficiently to check the tilt angle determinations. Such measurements not only confirm Joy's and Hale's laws, but also reveal the tilt angle variations during the sunspot lifetime, the effect of Coriolis force on the magnetic flux tubes, and the tilt angle dependence of the cycle progress. The measurements also provide uncertainties on the tilt angle measurements.

  11. RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

    SciTech Connect

    McClintock, B. H.; Norton, A. A.; Li, J. E-mail: aanorton@stanford.edu

    2014-12-20

    Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators.

  12. Re-examining Sunspot Tilt Angle to Include Anti-Hale Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McClintock, B. H.; Norton, A. A.; Li, J.

    2014-12-01

    Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li & Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators.

  13. A Comparison of Wolf's Reconstructed Record of Annual Sunspot Number with Schwabe's Observed Record of Clusters of Spots for the Interval of 1826-1868

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, the discoverer of the sunspot cycle, observed the Sun routinely from Desau, Germany during the interval of 1826-1869, averaging about 290 observing days per year. His yearly counts of 'clusters of spots' (or, more correctly, the yearly number of newly appearing sunspot groups) provided a simple means for describing the overt features of the sunspot cycle (i.e., the timing and relative strengths of cycle minimum and maximum). In 1848, Rudolf Wolf, a Swiss astronomer, having become aware of Schwabe's discovery, introduced his now familiar 'relative sunspot number' and established an international cadre of observers for monitoring the future behavior of the sunspot cycle and for reconstructing its past behavior (backwards in time to 1818, based on daily sunspot number estimates). While Wolf's reconstruction is complete (without gaps) only from 1849 (hence, the beginning of the modern era), the immediately preceding interval of 1818-1848 is incomplete, being based on an average of 260 observing days per year. In this investigation, Wolf's reconstructed record of annual sunspot number is compared against Schwabe's actual observing record of yearly counts of clusters of spots. The comparison suggests that Wolf may have misplaced (by about 1-2 yr) and underestimated (by about 16 units of sunspot number) the maximum amplitude for cycle 7. If true, then, cycle 7's ascent and descent durations should measure about 5 years each instead of 7 and 3 years, respectively, the extremes of the distributions, and its maximum amplitude should measure about 96 instead of 70. This study also indicates that cycle 9's maximum amplitude is more reliably determined than cycle 8's and that both appear to be of comparable size (about 130 units of sunspot number) rather than being significantly different. Therefore, caution is urged against the indiscriminate use of the pre-modern era sunspot numbers in long-term studies of the sunspot cycle, since such use may lead to

  14. Radiocarbon version of 11-year variations in the interplanetary magnetic field since 1250

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volobuev, D. M.; Makarenko, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    It is known that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), which is controlled by solar activity, modulates the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Because GCRs are the only source of the 14C isotope in the atmosphere before the era of atmospheric nuclear tests, the formation rate of this isotope in the atmosphere is one of the few reliable sources of information on solar activity before the initiation of regular telescopic observations. In this study, we solve the inverse problem for the equation of radiocarbon diffusion from the atmosphere into the ocean by calibrating the radiocarbon content in tree rings from 1510 to 1950. We obtain an approximation of 11-year IMF cycles represented by the IDV index from 1872 to 1950. The model extrapolation to the calibration curve for the Korean Peninsula over the time period from 1250 to 1650 makes it possible to calculate the sequence of minima of quasi-11-year cycles since 1250.

  15. Imaging sunspots using helioseismic methods.

    PubMed

    Tong, C H

    2005-12-15

    The origin of sunspots is one of the most fundamental and yet poorly understood areas in solar physics. Imaging local anomalous features in the solar interior offers a direct way to unravel the underlying physical processes of sunspots and the mechanisms behind their formation. The advent of local helioseismology in the last few years has, for the first time, made it possible to image local internal solar structures. High-resolution satellite and ground telescope data which reveal the details of the vibrations of the visible solar surface are essential in the development of local helioseismology. We are now in a position to transfer the seismic methods that have traditionally been used to study the Earth's interior to solar investigations. This interdisciplinary approach to developing seismic imaging techniques is opening up new ways of understanding the flow and other structural characteristics beneath sunspots. In this article, I review recent progress in the imaging of sunspots and the surrounding solar active regions. By highlighting the strengths of seismic methods and the challenges facing local helioseismology, I discuss some of the new research directions and possibilities that have arisen from this novel type of seismic imaging. PMID:16286289

  16. Solar Flare, CME, and Proton Event Rates Correlated with Sunspot Number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, L. M.; Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Pernak, R.

    2015-12-01

    The newly revised sunspot number series allows for placing historical geoeffective storms in the context of several hundred years of solar activity. Using statistical analyses of the GOES X-ray and differential particle observations from the past ~30 years and the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog (1996-present), we present sunspot number dependent predictions for expected flare, SEP, and CME rates. In particular, we present X-ray flare rates as a function of sunspot number for the past three cycles. We also show, as in the attached figure, that the 1-8 Angstrom background flux is strongly correlated with sunspot number across solar cycles. Similarly, we show that the CME properties (e.g., velocity and width) are also correlated with sunspot number for cycles 23 and 24. Finally, SEP rates and background proton flux levels are also scaled to sunspot number. These rates will enable future predictions for geoeffective events and place historical storms in context of present solar activity.

  17. The area and absolute magnetic flux of sunspots over the past 400 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagovitsyn, Yu. A.; Tlatov, A. G.; Nagovitsyna, E. Yu.

    2016-09-01

    A new series of yearly-mean relative sunspot numbers SN 2 that has been extrapolated into the past (to 1610) is presented. The Kislovodsk series with the scale factor b = 1.0094 ± 0.0059 represents a reasonable continuation of the mean-monthly and mean-yearly total sunspot areas of the Greenwich series after 1976. The second maximum of the 24th solar-activity cycle was not anomalously low, and was no lower than 6 of the past 13 cycles. A series A 2 of values for the total sunspot area in 1610-2015 has been constructed, and is complementary to new versions of the series of the relative number of sunspots SN 2 and the number of sunspot groups GN 2. When needed, this series can be reduced to yield a quantity having a clear physical meaning—the spot absolute magnetic flux Φ Σ( t)[Mx] = 2.16 × 1019 A( t) [mvh]. The maximum sunspot area during the Maunder minimum is much higher in the new series compared to the previous version. This at least partially supports the validity of arguments that cast doubt on the anomalously low ampltude of the solar cycles during the Maunder minimum that has been assumed by many researchers earlier.

  18. Sunspot group tilt angle measurements from historical observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Senthamizh Pavai, V.; Arlt, R.; Diercke, A.; Denker, C.; Vaquero, J. M.

    2016-10-01

    Sunspot positions from various historical sets of solar drawings are analyzed with respect to the tilt angles of bipolar sunspot groups. Data by Scheiner, Hevelius, Staudacher, Zucconi, Schwabe, and Spörer deliver a series of average tilt angles spanning a period of 270 years, additional to previously found values for 20th-century data obtained by other authors. We find that the average tilt angles before the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from the modern values. However, the average tilt angles of a period 50 years after the Maunder minimum, namely for cycles 0 and 1, were much lower and near zero. The normal tilt angles before the Maunder minimum suggest that it was not abnormally low tilt angles which drove the solar cycle into a grand minimum.

  19. Global Twist of Sunspot Magnetic Fields Obtained from High-Resolution Vector Magnetograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiwari, Sanjiv Kumar; Venkatakrishnan, P.; Sankarasubramanian, K.

    2009-09-01

    The presence of fine structures in sunspot vector magnetic fields has been confirmed from Hinode as well as other earlier observations. We studied 43 sunspots based on the data sets taken from ASP/DLSP, Hinode (SOT/SP), and SVM (USO). In this Letter, (1) we introduce the concept of signed shear angle (SSA) for sunspots and establish its importance for non-force-free fields. (2) We find that the sign of global α (force-free parameter) is well correlated with that of the global SSA and the photospheric chirality of sunspots. (3) Local α patches of opposite signs are present in the umbra of each sunspot. The amplitude of the spatial variation of local α in the umbra is typically of the order of the global α of the sunspot. (4) We find that the local α is distributed as alternately positive and negative filaments in the penumbra. The amplitude of azimuthal variation of the local α in the penumbra is approximately an order of magnitude larger than that in the umbra. The contributions of the local positive and negative currents and α in the penumbra cancel each other giving almost no contribution for their global values for the whole sunspot. (5) Arc-like structures (partial rings) with a sign opposite to that of the dominant sign of α of the umbral region are seen at the umbral-penumbral boundaries of some sunspots. (6) Most of the sunspots studied belong to the minimum epoch of the 23rd solar cycle and do not follow the so-called hemispheric helicity rule.

  20. GLOBAL TWIST OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC FIELDS OBTAINED FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION VECTOR MAGNETOGRAMS

    SciTech Connect

    Tiwari, Sanjiv Kumar; Venkatakrishnan, P.; Sankarasubramanian, K. E-mail: pvk@prl.res.in

    2009-09-10

    The presence of fine structures in sunspot vector magnetic fields has been confirmed from Hinode as well as other earlier observations. We studied 43 sunspots based on the data sets taken from ASP/DLSP, Hinode (SOT/SP), and SVM (USO). In this Letter, (1) we introduce the concept of signed shear angle (SSA) for sunspots and establish its importance for non-force-free fields. (2) We find that the sign of global {alpha} (force-free parameter) is well correlated with that of the global SSA and the photospheric chirality of sunspots. (3) Local {alpha} patches of opposite signs are present in the umbra of each sunspot. The amplitude of the spatial variation of local {alpha} in the umbra is typically of the order of the global {alpha} of the sunspot. (4) We find that the local {alpha} is distributed as alternately positive and negative filaments in the penumbra. The amplitude of azimuthal variation of the local {alpha} in the penumbra is approximately an order of magnitude larger than that in the umbra. The contributions of the local positive and negative currents and {alpha} in the penumbra cancel each other giving almost no contribution for their global values for the whole sunspot. (5) Arc-like structures (partial rings) with a sign opposite to that of the dominant sign of {alpha} of the umbral region are seen at the umbral-penumbral boundaries of some sunspots. (6) Most of the sunspots studied belong to the minimum epoch of the 23rd solar cycle and do not follow the so-called hemispheric helicity rule.

  1. SOHO reveals how sunspots take a stranglehold on the Sun

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2001-11-01

    Bernhard Fleck, ESA's project scientist for SOHO, comments, "The origin and stability of sunspots has been one of the long-standing mysteries in solar physics. I am delighted to see that with SOHO we are beginning to crack this problem." The gas flows around and beneath a sunspot have been detected by a team of scientists in the USA, using the Michelsen Doppler Imager (MDI) on SOHO. The instrument explores the solar interior by detecting natural sound waves at a million points on the Sun's surface. "After many years of contradictory theories about sunspots, MDI on SOHO is at last telling us what really happens," comments Junwei Zhao of Stanford University, California, lead author of a report published in the Astrophysical Journal. Inflows and downflows similar to those now detected with SOHO were envisaged in 1974 by Friedrich Meyer of Germany's Max-Planck- Institut für Physik und Astrophysik, and his colleagues. A similar expectation figured in a theory of sunspots advanced in 1979 by Eugene Parker of Chicago. "Our observation seems to provide strong evidence for both predictions," Zhao says. Sunspots have fascinated scientists since Galileo's time, 400 years ago, when they shattered a belief that the Sun was divinely free of any blemish. As symptoms of intense magnetic activity, sunspots are often associated with solar flares and mass ejections that affect space weather and the Earth itself. The Sun's activity peaks roughly every 11 years, and the latest maximum in the sunspot count occurred in 2000. Even with huge advances in helioseismology, which deduces layers and flows inside the Sun by analysis of sound waves that travel through it and agitate the surface, seeing behind the scenes in sunspots was never going to be easy. The MDI team refined a method of measuring the travel time of sound waves, invented in 1993 by Thomas Duvall of NASA Goddard, called solar tomography. It is like deducing what obstacles cross-country runners have faced, just by seeing in

  2. On the Relation Between Sunspot Area and Sunspot Number

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2006-01-01

    Often, the relation between monthly or yearly averages of total sunspot area, A, and sunspot number, R, has been described using the formula A = 16.7 R. Such a simple relation, however, is erroneous. The yearly ratio of A/R has varied between 5.3 in 1964 to 19.7 in 1926, having a mean of 13.1 with a standard deviation of 3.5. For 1875-1976 (corresponding to the Royal Greenwich Observatory timeframe), the yearly ratio of A/R has a mean of 14.1 with a standard deviation of 3.2, and it is found to differ significantly from the mean for 1977-2004 (corresponding to the United States Air Force/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Solar Optical Observing Network timeframe), which equals 9.8 with a standard deviation of 2.1. Scatterplots of yearly values of A versus R are highly correlated for both timeframes and they suggest that a value of R = 100 implies A=1,538 +/- 174 during the first timeframe, but only A=1,076 +/- 123 for the second timeframe. Comparison of the yearly ratios adjusted for same day coverage against yearly ratios using Rome Observatory measures for the interval 1958-1998 indicates that sunspot areas during the second timeframe are inherently too low.

  3. A multi-instrument analysis of sunspot umbrae

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, F. T.; Penn, M. J.; Livingston, W.

    2014-05-20

    The recent solar minimum and rise phase of solar cycle 24 have been unlike any period since the early 1900s. This article examines some of the properties of sunspot umbrae over the last 17 yr with three different instruments on the ground and in space: MDI, HMI and BABO. The distribution of magnetic fields and their evolution over time is shown and reveals that the field distribution in cycle 24 is fundamentally different from that in cycle 23. The annual average umbral magnetic field is then examined for the 17 yr observation period and shows a small decrease of 375 G in sunspot magnetic fields over the period 1996-2013, but the mean intensity of sunspot umbrae does not vary significantly over this time. A possible issue with sample sizes in a previous study is then explored to explain disagreements in data from two of the source instruments. All three instruments show that the relationship between umbral magnetic fields and umbral intensity agrees with past studies in that the umbral intensity decreases as the field strength increases. This apparent contradiction can be explained by the range of magnetic field values measured for a given umbral intensity being larger than the measured 375 G change in umbral field strength over time.

  4. Stellar magnetic cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baliunas, S. L.

    2004-05-01

    Is hope for understanding the solar magnetic cycle to be found in stars? Observations of stars with significant sub-surface convective zones -- masses smaller than about 1.5 solar masses on the lower main sequence and many types of cool, post-main-sequence stars -- indicate the presence of surface and atmospheric inhomogeneities analogous to solar magnetic features, making stellar magnetic activity a cosmically widespread phenomenon. Observations have been made primarily in visible wavelengths, and important information has also been derived from the ultraviolet and x-ray spectrum regions. Interannual to interdecadal variability of spectrum indicators of stellar magnetic features is common, and in some cases similar in appearance to the 11-year sunspot cycle. Successful models of the physical processes responsible for stellar magnetic cycles, typically cast as a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo, require advances in understanding not only convection but also the magnetic field's interaction with it. The observed facts that underpin the hope for models will be summarized. Properties of stellar magnetic cycles will be compared and contrasted with those of the sun, including inferences from paleo-environmental reservoirs that contain information on solar century- to millennial-scale magnetic variability. Partial support of this research came from NASA NAG5-7635, NRC COBASE, CRDF 322, MIT-MSG 5710001241, JPL 1236821, AF 49620-02-1-0194, Richard Lounsberry Foundation, Langley-Abbot, Rollins, Scholarly Studies and James Arthur Funds (Smithsonian Institution) and several generous individuals.

  5. The Solar Radio Microwave Flux and the Sunspot Number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svalgaard, L.; Hudson, H. S.

    2009-12-01

    Since 1947 the flux of microwaves from the Sun at wavelengths between 3 and 30 cm [frequencies between 10 and 1 GHz] has been routinely measured. This emission comes from both thromosphere and the corona and has two main sources: thermal bremsstrahlung (free-free emission) and thermal gyroradiation. These mechanisms give rise to enhanced radiation when the density and magnetic field increase, so the microwave radiation is a good measure of general solar activity. Strong magnetic fields occur in the network and can persist for weeks or longer; hence there is a strong rotational signal in the emission superposed on a solar cycle variation of the background coronal signal. The radio flux measurements can be calibrated absolutely and are not very sensitive to observing conditions, and in principle have no personal equation. They may thus be the most objective measure of solar activity, and our many decades-long flux record could throw light on the important issue of the long-term variation of solar activity. The longest series of observations F10.7, begun by Covington in Ottawa, Canada in April 1947 and maintained to this day. Other observatories also have long and continuing series of measurements of the microwave flux. One can now ask how this measure of solar activity compares to other measures, in particular the sunspot number. We correlate the sunspot number against the F10.7 flux for the interval 1951-1988, and obtain a good polynomial fit (R^2 = 0.977) up until ~1989.0 after which time the observed sunspot number falls progressively below the fitted number. Three obvious hypotheses present themselves: 1) The sunspot counting procedure or observers have changed, with resulting artificial changes of the sunspot number as they have in the past. 2) Physical changes in the corona or chromosphere have occurred. 3) Livingston & Penn’s observations that the sunspots are getting warmer during the last decade, leading to a decreased contrast with the surrounding

  6. On sunspot and starspot lifetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Bradshaw, S. J.; Hartigan, P. E-mail: hartigan@sparky.rice.edu

    2014-11-01

    We consider the lifetimes of spots on the Sun and other stars from the standpoint of magnetic diffusion. While normal magnetic diffusivity predicts lifetimes of sunspots that are too large by at least two orders of magnitude, turbulent magnetic diffusivity accounts for both the functional form of the solar empirical spot-lifetime relation and for the observed sunspot lifetimes, provided that the relevant diffusion length is the supergranule size. Applying this relation to other stars, the value of turbulent diffusivity depends almost entirely on supergranule size, with very weak dependence on other variables such as magnetic field strength and density. Overall, the best observational data for other stars is consistent with the extension of the solar relation, provided that stellar supergranule sizes for some stars are significantly larger than they are on the Sun.

  7. Technique for automatic detection of sunspots from full-disk continuum images.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goel, Suruchi; Mathew, Shibu

    2012-07-01

    Sunspot identification and characterization including location, area, lifetime, brightness, and so forth are required for a quantitative study of the solar cycle. Sunspot studies are also important for the modeling of the total solar irradiance during the solar cycle. We have developed the procedure for automatic detection of sunspots from full-disk continuum intensity images obtained from SOHO/MDI and it is also applicable for high resolution images from SDO/HMI. In white-light images sunspots are considerably darker than the surrounding photosphere because they are cooler than the average temperature of the solar surface (about 6000 K). Our procedure is based on active contour method using level set formulation. The basic idea of level set formulation for binary image segmentation is to define a 2-D level set function such as it has opposite signs for two regions and the boundary is defined as 'zero' of level-set function. We implemented the SBGFRLS (Selective Binary and Gaussian Filtering Regularized Level Set) method for sunspot detection. It first selectively penalizes the level set function to be binary, and then uses a Gaussian smoothing kernel to regularize it. This method is computationally simple and fast. The algorithm was run in two levels, once for umbra and then for penumbra detection with different parameters settings. Then, using umbra-penumbra position information, sunspots can be identified. The proposed procedure can give all parameters of sunspots like, location; center of gravity; area, mean (/min/max) intensity of umbra/penumbra etc., which can be compared with the other available sunspots catalog.

  8. The effects of sunspots on solar irradiance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hudson, H. S.; Silva, S.; Woodard, M.; Willson, R. C.

    1982-01-01

    It is pointed out that the darkness of a sunspot on the visible hemisphere of the sun will reduce the solar irradiance on the earth. Approaches are discussed for obtaining a crude estimate of the irradiance deficit produced by sunspots and of the total luminosity reduction for the whole global population of sunspots. Attention is given to a photometric sunspot index, a global measure of spot flux deficit, and models for the compensating flux excess. A model is shown for extrapolating visible-hemisphere spot areas to the invisible hemisphere. As an illustration, this extrapolation is used to calculate a very simple model for the reradiation necessary to balance the flux deficit.

  9. Oscillations in a sunspot with light bridges

    SciTech Connect

    Yuan, Ding; Su, Jiangtao; Yan, Yihua; Tan, Baolin; Nakariakov, Valery M.; Huang, Zhenghua; Li, Bo

    2014-09-01

    The Solar Optical Telescope on board Hinode observed a sunspot (AR 11836) with two light bridges (LBs) on 2013 August 31. We analyzed a two-hour Ca II H emission intensity data set and detected strong five-minute oscillation power on both LBs and in the inner penumbra. The time-distance plot reveals that the five-minute oscillation phase does not vary significantly along the thin bridge, indicating that the oscillations are likely to originate from underneath it. The slit taken along the central axis of the wide LB exhibits a standing wave feature. However, at the center of the wide bridge, the five-minute oscillation power is found to be stronger than at its sides. Moreover, the time-distance plot across the wide bridge exhibits a herringbone pattern that indicates a counter-stream of two running waves, which originated at the bridge's sides. Thus, the five-minute oscillations on the wide bridge also resemble the properties of running penumbral waves. The five-minute oscillations are suppressed in the umbra, while the three-minute oscillations occupy all three cores of the sunspot's umbra, separated by the LBs. The three-minute oscillations were found to be in phase at both sides of the LBs. This may indicate that either LBs do not affect umbral oscillations, or that umbral oscillations at different umbral cores share the same source. It also indicates that LBs are rather shallow objects situated in the upper part of the umbra. We found that umbral flashes (UFs) follow the life cycles of umbral oscillations with much larger amplitudes. They cannot propagate across LBs. UFs dominate the three-minute oscillation power within each core; however, they do not disrupt the phase of umbral oscillation.

  10. LONG-TERM MEASUREMENTS OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC TILT ANGLES

    SciTech Connect

    Li Jing; Ulrich, Roger K.

    2012-10-20

    Tilt angles of close to 30,600 sunspots are determined using Mount Wilson daily averaged magnetograms taken from 1974 to 2012, and SOHO/MDI magnetograms taken from 1996 to 2010. Within a cycle, more than 90% of sunspots have a normal polarity alignment along the east-west direction following Hale's law. The median tilts increase with increasing latitude (Joy's law) at a rate of {approx}0.{sup 0}5 per degree of latitude. Tilt angles of spots appear largely invariant with respect to time at a given latitude, but they decrease by {approx}0.{sup 0}9 per year on average, a trend that largely reflects Joy's law following the butterfly diagram. We find an asymmetry between the hemispheres in the mean tilt angles. On average, the tilts are greater in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere for all latitude zones, and the differences increase with increasing latitude.

  11. Long-Term Measurements of Sunspot Magnetic Tilt Angles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, J.; Ulrich, R. K.

    2012-12-01

    Tilt angles of close to 30,600 sunspots are determined using Mount Wilson daily averaged magnetograms taken from 1974 to 2012, and MDI/SoHO magnetograms taken from 1996 to 2010. Within a cycle, more than 90% of sunspots have a normal polarity alignment along the east-west direction following Hale's law. The median tilts increase with increasing latitude (Joy's law) at a rate of 0.5 degree per degree of latitude. Tilt angles of spots appear largely invariant with respect to time at a given latitude, but they decrease by 0.9 degree per year on average, a trend which largely reflects Joy's law following the butterfly diagram. We find an asymmetry between the hemispheres in the mean tilt angles. On average, the tilts are greater in the southern than in the northern hemisphere for all latitude zones, and the differences increases with increasing latitude.

  12. Long-term Measurements of Sunspot Magnetic Tilt Angles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jing; Ulrich, Roger K.

    2012-10-01

    Tilt angles of close to 30,600 sunspots are determined using Mount Wilson daily averaged magnetograms taken from 1974 to 2012, and SOHO/MDI magnetograms taken from 1996 to 2010. Within a cycle, more than 90% of sunspots have a normal polarity alignment along the east-west direction following Hale's law. The median tilts increase with increasing latitude (Joy's law) at a rate of ~0fdg5 per degree of latitude. Tilt angles of spots appear largely invariant with respect to time at a given latitude, but they decrease by ~0fdg9 per year on average, a trend that largely reflects Joy's law following the butterfly diagram. We find an asymmetry between the hemispheres in the mean tilt angles. On average, the tilts are greater in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere for all latitude zones, and the differences increase with increasing latitude.

  13. Digitization of sunspot drawings by Spörer made in 1861-1894

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diercke, A.; Arlt, R.; Denker, C.

    2015-01-01

    Most of our knowledge about the Sun's activity cycle arises from sunspot observations over the last centuries since telescopes have been used for astronomy. The German astronomer Gustav Spörer observed almost daily the Sun from 1861 until the beginning of 1894 and assembled a 33-year collection of sunspot data covering a total of 445 solar rotation periods. These sunspot drawings were carefully placed on an equidistant grid of heliographic longitude and latitude for each rotation period, which were then copied to copper plates for a lithographic reproduction of the drawings in astronomical journals. In this article, we describe in detail the process of capturing these data as digital images, correcting for various effects of the aging print materials, and preparing the data for contemporary scientific analysis based on advanced image processing techniques. With the processed data we create a butterfly diagram aggregating sunspot areas, and we present methods to measure the size of sunspots (umbra and penumbra) and to determine tilt angles of active regions. A probability density function of the sunspot area is computed, which conforms to contemporary data after rescaling.

  14. Observations of sunspot umbral velocity oscillations.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bhatnagar, A.; Livingston, W. C.; Harvey, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    Review of sunspot umbral velocity measurements obtained free from any cross talk introduced by photospheric and penumbral scattered light by using lines formed only in the sunspot umbrae and showing no Zeeman effect. The maximum peak-to-peak amplitude of the umbral oscillatory velocity component is found to be of the order of 0.5 km per sec.

  15. Helioseismology of a Realistic Magnetoconvective Sunspot Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braun, D. C.; Birch, A. C.; Rempel, M.; Duvall, T. L., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    We compare helioseismic travel-time shifts measured from a realistic magnetoconvective sunspot simulation using both helioseismic holography and time-distance helioseismology, and measured from real sunspots observed with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. We find remarkable similarities in the travel-time shifts measured between the methodologies applied and between the simulated and real sunspots. Forward modeling of the travel-time shifts using either Born or ray approximation kernels and the sound-speed perturbations present in the simulation indicates major disagreements with the measured travel-time shifts. These findings do not substantially change with the application of a correction for the reduction of wave amplitudes in the simulated and real sunspots. Overall, our findings demonstrate the need for new methods for inferring the subsurface structure of sunspots through helioseismic inversions.

  16. HELIOSEISMOLOGY OF A REALISTIC MAGNETOCONVECTIVE SUNSPOT SIMULATION

    SciTech Connect

    Braun, D. C.; Birch, A. C.; Rempel, M.; Duvall, T. L. Jr. E-mail: aaronb@cora.nwra.com E-mail: Thomas.L.Duvall@nasa.gov

    2012-01-01

    We compare helioseismic travel-time shifts measured from a realistic magnetoconvective sunspot simulation using both helioseismic holography and time-distance helioseismology, and measured from real sunspots observed with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. We find remarkable similarities in the travel-time shifts measured between the methodologies applied and between the simulated and real sunspots. Forward modeling of the travel-time shifts using either Born or ray approximation kernels and the sound-speed perturbations present in the simulation indicates major disagreements with the measured travel-time shifts. These findings do not substantially change with the application of a correction for the reduction of wave amplitudes in the simulated and real sunspots. Overall, our findings demonstrate the need for new methods for inferring the subsurface structure of sunspots through helioseismic inversions.

  17. [Cerebellar gangliocytoma in an 11-year-old child].

    PubMed

    Joly, Marie; Valmary-Degano, Séverine; Cattin, Françoise; Vasiljevic, Alexandre; Jouvet, Anne; Viennet, Gabriel

    2014-12-01

    Cerebellar gangliocytoma can correspond to Lhermitte-Duclos disease, a benign hamartomatous malformation encountered in young adults. It can also be a part of gangliogliomas/gangliocytomas family, which usually encompasses temporal pediatric neoplasms associated with longstanding seizures. We report a case of a young 11-year-old patient who presented with a gangliocytoma of the cerebellum revealed by neurologic manifestations (headache, dyspraxia, equilibrium and gait disturbances). Diagnosis was made on surgical material. Tumour was characterized by dysplastic mature ganglion cells, perivascular lymphocytic infiltrates and no glial neoplastic component. By immunohistochemistry, ganglion cells expressed neurofilaments, MAP2 protein, synaptophysin, chromogranin A and S100 protein. BRAF V600E mutation was absent. Clinical characteristics, radiology, histopathology of the two main diagnoses are discussed.

  18. First Manic Episode in an 11 Year-old Girl

    PubMed Central

    Tran, Don Quang; Beaudry, Vincent; Lajoie, Yves

    2013-01-01

    Objective: We present the case of an 11 year-old girl admitted to the Centre hospitalier universitaire de Sherbrooke for a first manic episode. Method: Differential diagnoses of adjustment disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and conduct disorder were considered but eliminated. Results: No organic etiology was detected. Her condition rapidly remitted with aripiprazole 3mg. After her discharge, she suffered a relapse due to instability of her living conditions and was rehospitalized. Conclusion: Mania is a difficult diagnosis in youths due to its nonspecific symptoms, rare prepubertal occurrence, and diagnostic complexity. Despite ongoing research, there is little conclusive information on the impact of psychosocial stressors on the evolution of early-onset bipolar disorder. PMID:24223053

  19. CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AND THE SOLAR CYCLE VARIATION OF THE SUN’S OPEN FLUX

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Y.-M.; Sheeley, N. R. Jr. E-mail: neil.sheeley@nrl.navy.mil

    2015-08-20

    The strength of the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), which is a measure of the Sun’s total open flux, is observed to vary by roughly a factor of two over the 11 year solar cycle. Several recent studies have proposed that the Sun’s open flux consists of a constant or “floor” component that dominates at sunspot minimum, and a time-varying component due to coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Here, we point out that CMEs cannot account for the large peaks in the IMF strength which occurred in 2003 and late 2014, and which coincided with peaks in the Sun’s equatorial dipole moment. We also show that near-Earth interplanetary CMEs, as identified in the catalog of Richardson and Cane, contribute at most ∼30% of the average radial IMF strength even during sunspot maximum. We conclude that the long-term variation of the radial IMF strength is determined mainly by the Sun’s total dipole moment, with the quadrupole moment and CMEs providing an additional boost near sunspot maximum. Most of the open flux is rooted in coronal holes, whose solar cycle evolution in turn reflects that of the Sun’s lowest-order multipoles.

  20. Coronal Mass Ejections and the Solar Cycle Variation of the Sun's Open Flux

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.-M.; Sheeley, N. R., Jr.

    2015-08-01

    The strength of the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), which is a measure of the Sun’s total open flux, is observed to vary by roughly a factor of two over the 11 year solar cycle. Several recent studies have proposed that the Sun’s open flux consists of a constant or “floor” component that dominates at sunspot minimum, and a time-varying component due to coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Here, we point out that CMEs cannot account for the large peaks in the IMF strength which occurred in 2003 and late 2014, and which coincided with peaks in the Sun’s equatorial dipole moment. We also show that near-Earth interplanetary CMEs, as identified in the catalog of Richardson and Cane, contribute at most ∼30% of the average radial IMF strength even during sunspot maximum. We conclude that the long-term variation of the radial IMF strength is determined mainly by the Sun’s total dipole moment, with the quadrupole moment and CMEs providing an additional boost near sunspot maximum. Most of the open flux is rooted in coronal holes, whose solar cycle evolution in turn reflects that of the Sun’s lowest-order multipoles.

  1. The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kopp, G.; Krivova, N.; Wu, C. J.; Lean, J.

    2016-03-01

    Reliable historical records of the total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy that is incident upon Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries that is due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate the effects that the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series may have on model reconstructions of the TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on timescales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar-activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable reconstructing historical TSI. Revisions of the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial timescales according to the model reconstruction methods that are employed. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885, but leads to solar-cycle fluctuations with greater amplitude in the TSI reconstructions prior. This suggests that many eighteenth- and nineteenth-century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and from comparing this era to the present, we find only very small potential differences in the estimated solar contributions to the climate with this new sunspot record.

  2. Variation in sunspot properties between 1999 and 2011 as observed with the Tenerife Infrared Polarimeter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezaei, R.; Beck, C.; Schmidt, W.

    2012-05-01

    Aims: We study the variation in the magnetic field strength and the umbral intensity of sunspots during the declining phase of the solar cycle No. 23 and in the beginning of cycle No. 24. Methods: We analyze a sample of 183 sunspots observed from 1999 until 2011 with the Tenerife Infrared Polarimeter (TIP) at the German Vacuum Tower Telescope (VTT). The magnetic field strength is derived from the Zeeman splitting of the Stokes-V signal in one near-infrared spectral line, either Fe i 1564.8 nm, Fe i 1089.6 nm, or Si i 1082.7 nm. This avoids the effects of the unpolarized stray light from the field-free quiet Sun surroundings that can affect the splitting seen in Stokes-I in the umbra. The minimum umbral continuum intensity and umbral area are also measured. Results: We find that there is a systematic trend for sunspots in the late stage of the solar cycle No. 23 to be weaker, i.e., to have a smaller maximum magnetic field strength than those at the start of the cycle. The decrease in the field strength with time of about 94 Gyr-1 is well beyond the statistical fluctuations that would be expected because of the larger number of sunspots close to cycle maximum (14 Gyr-1). In the same time interval, the continuum intensity of the umbra increases with a rate of 1.3 (±0.4)% of Ic yr-1, while the umbral area does not show any trend above the statistical variance. Sunspots in the new cycle No. 24 show higher field strengths and lower continuum intensities than those at the end of cycle No. 23, interrupting the trend. Conclusions: Sunspots have an intrinsically weaker field strength and brighter umbrae at the late stages of solar cycles compared to their initial stages, without any significant change in their area. The abrupt increase in field strength in sunspots of the new cycle suggests that the cyclic variations are dominating over any long-term trend that continues across cycles. We find a slight decrease in field strength and an increase in intensity as a long

  3. Modeling Repeatedly Flaring δ Sunspots.

    PubMed

    Chatterjee, Piyali; Hansteen, Viggo; Carlsson, Mats

    2016-03-11

    Active regions (ARs) appearing on the surface of the Sun are classified into α, β, γ, and δ by the rules of the Mount Wilson Observatory, California on the basis of their topological complexity. Amongst these, the δ sunspots are known to be superactive and produce the most x-ray flares. Here, we present results from a simulation of the Sun by mimicking the upper layers and the corona, but starting at a more primitive stage than any earlier treatment. We find that this initial state consisting of only a thin subphotospheric magnetic sheet breaks into multiple flux tubes which evolve into a colliding-merging system of spots of opposite polarity upon surface emergence, similar to those often seen on the Sun. The simulation goes on to produce many exotic δ sunspot associated phenomena: repeated flaring in the range of typical solar flare energy release and ejective helical flux ropes with embedded cool-dense plasma filaments resembling solar coronal mass ejections.

  4. Chromospheric seismology above sunspot umbrae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snow, B.; Botha, G. J. J.; Régnier, S.

    2015-08-01

    Context. The acoustic resonator is an important model for explaining the three-minute oscillations in the chromosphere above sunspot umbrae. The steep temperature gradients at the photosphere and transition region provide the cavity for the acoustic resonator, which allows waves to be both partially transmitted and partially reflected. Aims: In this paper, a new method of estimating the size and temperature profile of the chromospheric cavity above a sunspot umbra is developed. Methods: The magnetic field above umbrae is modelled numerically in 1.5D with slow magnetoacoustic wave trains travelling along magnetic fieldlines. Resonances are driven by applying the random noise of three different colours - white, pink, and brown - as small velocity perturbations to the upper convection zone. Energy escapes the resonating cavity and generates wave trains moving into the corona. Line-of-sight integration is also performed to determine the observable spectra through SDO/AIA. Results: The numerical results show that the gradient of the coronal spectra is directly correlated with the chromosperic temperature configuration. As the chromospheric cavity size increases, the spectral gradient becomes shallower. When line-of-sight integration is performed, the resulting spectra demonstrate a broadband of excited frequencies that is correlated with the chromospheric cavity size. The broadband of excited frequencies becomes narrower as the chromospheric cavity size increases. Conclusions: These two results provide a potentially useful diagnostic for the chromospheric temperature profile by considering coronal velocity oscillations.

  5. On Net Currents in Sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venkatakrishnan, Parameswaran

    2012-07-01

    Vector magnetic fields of sunspots, as measured in the photosphere, show structures on a variety of special scales. Simple inversions of stokes profiles yield average values of the vector fields at a single height. Vertical component of the current density obtained from such magnetograms is also distributed on sub-arc second scales. However, the net current, obtained by spatial integration of the current density must vanish on account of the confined nature of the sunspot fields. Various measurements of the net current show different results. In this talk, I will discuss all such results, including the evolution of net current in the case of NOAA AR 10930 during the period 10 December 2006 to 15 December 2006. The implications of such an evolution for initiating eruptions in the solar corona are also discussed. Finally, the advantage of measuring currents at different layers of the solar atmosphere will be pointed out. This will be a major science goal of the upcoming Multi Application Solar Telescope (MAST) of the Udaipur Solar Observatory.

  6. Sunspot Dynamics Are Reflected in Human Physiology and Pathophysiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrushesky, William J. M.; Sothern, Robert B.; Du-Quiton, Jovelyn; Quiton, Dinah Faith T.; Rietveld, Wop; Boon, Mathilde E.

    2011-03-01

    Periodic episodes of increased sunspot activity (solar electromagnetic storms) occur with 10-11 and 5-6 year periodicities and may be associated with measurable biological events. We investigated whether this sunspot periodicity characterized the incidence of Pap smear-determined cervical epithelial histopathologies and human physiologic functions. From January 1983 through December 2003, monthly averages were obtained for solar flux and sunspot numbers; six infectious, premalignant and malignant changes in the cervical epithelium from 1,182,421 consecutive, serially independent, screening Pap smears (59°9"N, 4°29"E); and six human physiologic functions of a healthy man (oral temperature, pulse, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respiration, and peak expiratory flow), which were measured ∼5 times daily during ∼34,500 self-measurement sessions (44°56"N, 93°8"W). After determining that sunspot numbers and solar flux, which were not annually rhythmic, occurred with a prominent 10-year and a less-prominent 5.75-year periodicity during this 21-year study span, each biological data set was analyzed with the same curve-fitting procedures. All six annually rhythmic Pap smear-detected infectious, premalignant and malignant cervical epithelial pathologies showed strong 10-year and weaker 5.75-year cycles, as did all six self-measured, annually rhythmic, physiologic functions. The phases (maxima) for the six histopathologic findings and five of six physiologic measurements were very near, or within, the first two quarters following the 10-year solar maxima. These findings add to the growing evidence that solar magnetic storm periodicities are mirrored by cyclic phase-locked rhythms of similar period length or lengths in human physiology and pathophysiology.

  7. Sunspot Dynamics Are Reflected in Human Physiology and Pathophysiology

    PubMed Central

    Sothern, Robert B.; Du-Quiton, Jovelyn; Quiton, Dinah Faith T.; Rietveld, Wop; Boon, Mathilde E.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Periodic episodes of increased sunspot activity (solar electromagnetic storms) occur with 10–11 and 5–6 year periodicities and may be associated with measurable biological events. We investigated whether this sunspot periodicity characterized the incidence of Pap smear-determined cervical epithelial histopathologies and human physiologic functions. From January 1983 through December 2003, monthly averages were obtained for solar flux and sunspot numbers; six infectious, premalignant and malignant changes in the cervical epithelium from 1,182,421 consecutive, serially independent, screening Pap smears (59°9″N, 4°29″E); and six human physiologic functions of a healthy man (oral temperature, pulse, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respiration, and peak expiratory flow), which were measured ∼5 times daily during ∼34,500 self-measurement sessions (44°56″N, 93°8″W). After determining that sunspot numbers and solar flux, which were not annually rhythmic, occurred with a prominent 10-year and a less-prominent 5.75-year periodicity during this 21-year study span, each biological data set was analyzed with the same curve-fitting procedures. All six annually rhythmic Pap smear-detected infectious, premalignant and malignant cervical epithelial pathologies showed strong 10-year and weaker 5.75-year cycles, as did all six self-measured, annually rhythmic, physiologic functions. The phases (maxima) for the six histopathologic findings and five of six physiologic measurements were very near, or within, the first two quarters following the 10-year solar maxima. These findings add to the growing evidence that solar magnetic storm periodicities are mirrored by cyclic phase-locked rhythms of similar period length or lengths in human physiology and pathophysiology. Key Words: Cervical infections—Cervical premalignancy—Geo-solar magnetic interactions—Pap smear—Schwabe cycle—10-year rhythm. Astrobiology 11, 93–103. PMID:21391821

  8. Geographically selective assortment of cycles in pandemics: meta-analysis of data collected by Chizhevsky

    PubMed Central

    Gumarova, L.; Cornélissen, G.; Hillman, D.; Halberg, F.

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY In the incidence patterns of cholera, diphtheria and croup during the past when they were of epidemic proportions, we document a set of cycles (periods), one of which was reported and discussed by A. L. Chizhevsky in the same data with emphasis on the mirroring in human disease of the ~11-year sunspot cycle. The data in this study are based on Chizhevsky’s book The Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms and on records from the World Health Organization. For meta-analysis, we used the extended linear and nonlinear cosinor. We found a geographically selective assortment of various cycles characterizing the epidemiology of infections, which is the documented novel topic of this paper, complementing the earlier finding in the 21st century or shortly before, of a geographically selective assortment of cycles characterizing human sudden cardiac death. Solar effects, if any, interact with geophysical processes in contributing to this assortment. PMID:23228468

  9. Geographically selective assortment of cycles in pandemics: meta-analysis of data collected by Chizhevsky.

    PubMed

    Gumarova, L; Cornélissen, G; Hillman, D; Halberg, F

    2013-10-01

    In the incidence patterns of cholera, diphtheria and croup during the past when they were of epidemic proportions, we document a set of cycles (periods), one of which was reported and discussed by A. L. Chizhevsky in the same data with emphasis on the mirroring in human disease of the ~11-year sunspot cycle. The data in this study are based on Chizhevsky’s book The Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms and on records from the World Health Organization. For meta-analysis, we used the extended linear and nonlinear cosinor. We found a geographically selective assortment of various cycles characterizing the epidemiology of infections, which is the documented novel topic of this paper, complementing the earlier finding in the 21st century or shortly before, of a geographically selective assortment of cycles characterizing human sudden cardiac death. Solar effects, if any, interact with geophysical processes in contributing to this assortment.

  10. Electric current in a unipolar sunspot with an untwisted field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Osherovich, V. A.; Garcia, H. A.

    1990-01-01

    The return flux (RF) sunspot model is applied to a round, unipolar sunspot observed by H. Kawakami (1983). Solving the magnetohydrostatic problem using the gas pressure deficit between the umbral and quiet-sun atmospheres as a source function, a distribution of electric current density in an untwisted, unipolar sunspot as a function of height and radial distance from the sunspot center is observed. Maximum electric current density is about 32 mA/sq m at the bottom of the sunspot.

  11. Changes in the Bolometric Contrast of Sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, G. A.; Cookson, A. M.; Dobias, J. J.

    1993-12-01

    We report on photometric observations of sunspots carried out with the Cartesian Full Disk Telescope (CFDT) at the San Fernando Observatory (SFO). The pixel size is 5.1 arc-sec and the wavelength for the data discussed here is 6723 Angstroms. Fluctuations in total solar irradiance due to sunspots are often modeled using a constant value of alpha, which we are calling the bolometric contrast of a sunspot. We have defined alpha_ {eff} as DEF/(2 times PSI), where DEF is the sunspot's photometric deficit relative to the quiet photosphere, and PSI is the digitally determined Photometric Sunspot Index (Willson et al., 1981). For 40 sunspot groups, we find that alpha_ {eff} = (0.276 +/- 0.051) + (3.22 +/- 0.34) 10(-5) A_s, where A_s is the corrected area of the sunspot in micro-hemispheres. The coefficient of determination is r(2) = 0.1936, which is significant at the p = 0.005 level. We also find that alpha_ {eff} is highly correlated with the ratio of umbral to total spot area (A_u/A_s). For 86 sunspot-days we find alpha_ {eff} = (0.219 +/- 0.018) + (0.643 +/- 0.028) (A_u/A_s) with the linear coefficient of determination r(2) = 0.859. This suggests that an improved PSI can be constructed from knowledge of a sunspot's umbral to total area ratio. The use of such an improved PSI or, better still, actual photometry should reduce the statistical noise in comparisons with spacecraft measurements of the total solar irradiance. This work has been partially supported by grants from NSF and NASA.

  12. The Earth's climate at minima of Centennial Gleissberg Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan

    2015-10-01

    The recent extended, deep minimum of solar variability and the extended minima in the 19th and 20th centuries (1810-1830 and 1900-1920) are consistent with minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle (CGC), a 90-100 year variation of the amplitude of the 11-year sunspot cycle observed on the Sun and at the Earth. The Earth's climate response to these prolonged low solar radiation inputs involves heat transfer to the deep ocean causing a time lag longer than a decade. The spatial pattern of the climate response, which allows distinguishing the CGC forcing from other climate forcings, is dominated by the Pacific North American pattern (PNA). The CGC minima, sometimes coincidently in combination with volcanic forcing, are associated with severe weather extremes. Thus the 19th century CGC minimum, coexisted with volcanic eruptions, led to especially cold conditions in United States, Canada and Western Europe.

  13. Farming tractor fatalities in Virginia: an 11-year retrospective review.

    PubMed

    Fulcher, James; Noller, Anna; Kay, Deborah

    2012-12-01

    This retrospective case review examines farm tractor-related deaths in the Commonwealth of Virginia for an 11-year period, from 1997 to 2007. This study compares decedent's demographic information, toxicology results, and medical histories.A vast majority of farm tractor-related deaths were male (98%) and white (91%). The average age was 60 years with most deaths occurring between the ages of 40 and 80 years. Ethanol use was observed in 9% of all cases with 7% of cases being more than 0.08% wt/vol ethanol, which is the legal limit in Virginia to operate a motor vehicle.The more mountainous, Western District Office of the Chief Medical Examiner composed 60% of total cases with 43% of these western cases related to tractor use on a natural slope or incline. The deaths in other districts were all less than 13% natural slope or incline related, reflecting the topography of these areas.These findings confirm much of what observation would suggest; accidents with farming tractors typically involve older white men. Operating a tractor on steep inclines is dangerous as many tractors do not have adequate rollover protection. The use of ethanol is dangerous when using any heavy equipment.This study provides an initial look at tractor-related deaths in Virginia, and more research is needed in this area to improve safety mechanisms on this machinery.

  14. Properties of a Decaying Sunspot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balthasar, H.; Beck, C.; Gömöry, P.; Muglach, K.; Puschmann, K. G.; Shimizu, T.; Verma, M.

    A small decaying sunspot was observed with the Vacuum Tower Telescope (VTT) on Tenerife and the Japanese Hinode satellite. We obtained full Stokes scans in several wavelengths covering different heights in the solar atmosphere. Imaging time series from Hinode and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) complete our data sets. The spot is surrounded by a moat flow, which persists also on that side of the spot where the penumbra already had disappeared. Close to the spot, we find a chromospheric location with downflows of more than 10 km s^{-1} without photospheric counterpart. The height dependence of the vertical component of the magnetic field strength is determined in two different ways that yielded different results in previous investigations. Such a difference still exists in our present data, but it is not as pronounced as in the past.

  15. Structure of the sunspot penumbra

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, R. L.

    1981-01-01

    An exceptionally highly resolved sunspot photograph is presented which reveals the fine-scale structure of the photospheric penumbra down to 0.2 arcsec. The photograph was taken through a glass filter in a 170-A FWHM band centered on 4660 A on the 65-cm vacuum Gregorian telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory during practically perfect seeing. The photograph reveals the penumbra to be full of extremely fine-scale fibril structures, with apparent widths near the resolution limit. The three-dimensional structure of the photospheric penumbra is seen to be similar to that of the chromospheric penumbra and superpenumbra, with dark fibrils arching above a lower brighter structure and many of the bright fibrils representing portions of wider bright structures shining through the narrow spaces between the elevated dark fibrils. Thus, in contrast to previous pictures, much of the dark component of the photospheric penumbra is not physically analogous to the intergranular dark lanes in the normal photosphere.

  16. When Daily Sunspot Births Become Positively Correlated

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapoval, Alexander; Le Mouël, Jean-Louis; Shnirman, Mikhail; Courtillot, Vincent

    2015-10-01

    We study the first differences w(t) of the International Sunspot Number (ISSN) daily series for the time span 1850 - 2013. The one-day correlations ρ1 between w(t) and w(t+1) are computed within four-year sliding windows and are found to shift from negative to positive values near the end of Cycle 17 ({˜} 1945). They remain positive during the last Grand Maximum and until {˜} 2009, when they fall to zero. We also identify a prominent regime change in {˜} 1915, strengthening previous evidence of major anomalies in solar activity at this date. We test an autoregressive process of order 1 (AR(1)) as a model that can reproduce the high-frequency component of ISSN: we compute ρ1 for this AR(1) process and find that it is negative. Positive values of ρ1 are found only if the process involves positive correlation: this leads us to suggest that the births of successive spots are positively correlated during the last Grand Maximum.

  17. Wavelet analysis of CME, X-ray flare, and sunspot series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guedes, M. R. G.; Pereira, E. S.; Cecatto, J. R.

    2015-01-01

    Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are the most energetic transient phenomena taking place at the Sun. Together they are principally responsible for disturbances in outer geospace. Coronal mass ejections and solar flares are believed to be correlated with the solar cycle, which is mainly characterized by sunspot numbers. Aims: Here, we search for pattern identification in CMEs, X-ray solar flares, and sunspot number time series using a new data mining process and a quantitative procedure to correlate these series. Methods: This new process consists of the combination of a decomposition method with the wavelet transform technique applied to the series ranging from 2000 until 2012. A simple moving average is used for the time-series decomposition as a high-pass filter. A continuous wavelet transform is applied to the series in sequence, which permits us to uncover signals previously masked by the original time series. We made use of the wavelet coherence to find some correlation between the data. Results: The results have shown the existence of periodic and intermittent signals in the CMEs, flares, and sunspot time series. For the CME and flare series, few and relatively short time intervals without any signal were observed. Signals with an intermittent character take place during some epochs of the maximum and descending phases of the solar cycle 23 and rising phase of solar cycle 24. A comparison among X-ray flares, sunspots, and CME time series shows a stronger relation between flare and CMEs, although during some short intervals (four-eight months) and in a relatively narrow band. Yet, in contrast we have obtained a fainter or even absent relation between the X-ray flares and sunspot number series as well as between the CMEs and sunspot number series.

  18. Model of poleward magnetic field streams from sunspot butterflies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolotova, Nadezhda V.; Ponyavin, Dmitri I.

    2013-07-01

    The poleward magnetic field streams on time-latitude diagram of the photospheric magnetic field of the Sun during 1975-2011 (Kitt Peak NSO, SOLIS NSO, SOHO MDI data) are modeled. We performed simulations in terms of probability density function and bipole orientation according to Joy's law and Hale's cycle. The difference between distributions of leading and trailing fluxes of bipolar sunspots defines the so-called surplus. Finally, magnetic field streams and polar field reversals are a result of meridional drift of a surplus to the poles.

  19. Theories of dynamical phenomena in sunspots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, J. H.

    1981-01-01

    Attempts that have been made to understand and explain observed dynamical phenomena in sunspots within the framework of magnetohydrodynamic theory are surveyed. The qualitative aspects of the theory and physical arguments are emphasized, with mathematical details generally avoided. The dynamical phenomena in sunspots are divided into two categories: aperiodic (quasi-steady) and oscillatory. For each phenomenon discussed, the salient observational features that any theory should explain are summarized. The two contending theoretical models that can account for the fine structure of the Evershed motion, namely the convective roll model and the siphon flow model, are described. With regard to oscillatory phenomena, attention is given to overstability and oscillatory convection, umbral oscillations and flashes. penumbral waves, five-minute oscillations in sunspots, and the wave cooling of sunspots.

  20. Carotid Artery Stenting: Single-Center Experience Over 11 Years

    SciTech Connect

    Nolz, Richard Schernthaner, Ruediger Egbert; Cejna, Manfred; Schernthaner, Melanie Lammer, Johannes Schoder, Maria

    2010-04-15

    This article reports the results of carotid artery stenting during an 11-year period. Data from 168 carotid artery stenting procedures (symptomatic, n = 55; asymptomatic, n = 101; symptoms not accessible, n = 12) were retrospectively collected. Primary technical success rate, neurological events in-hospital, access-site complications, and contrast-induced nephropathy (n = 118) were evaluated. To evaluate the influence of experience in carotid artery stenting on intraprocedural neurologic complications, patients were divided into two groups. Group 1 included the first 80 treated patients, and group 2 the remainder of the patients (n = 88). In-stent restenoses at last-follow-up examinations (n = 89) were assessed. The overall primary technical success rate was 95.8%. The in-hospital stroke-death rate was 3.0% (n = 5; symptomatic, 5.4%; asymptomatic, 2.0%; p = 0.346). Neurologic complications were markedly higher in group 1 (4.2%; three major strokes; symptomatic, 2.8%, asymptomatic, 1.4%) compared to group 2 (2.4%; one major and one minor stroke-symptomatic, 1.2%, asymptomatic 1.2%), but this was not statistically significant. Further complications were access-site complications in 12 (7.1%), with surgical revision required in 1 (0.6%) and mild contrast-induced nephropathy in 1 (0.85%). Twenty-one (23.6%) patients had >50% in-stent restenosis during a mean follow-up of 28.2 months. In conclusion, advanced experience in carotid artery stenting leads to an acceptable periprocedural stroke-death rate. In-stent restenosis could be a critical factor during the follow-up course.

  1. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Sunspot Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suyal, Vinita; Prasad, Awadhesh; Singh, Harinder P.

    2009-12-01

    This article deals with the analysis of sunspot number time series using the Hurst exponent. We use the rescaled range ( R/ S) analysis to estimate the Hurst exponent for 259-year and 11 360-year sunspot data. The results show a varying degree of persistence over shorter and longer time scales corresponding to distinct values of the Hurst exponent. We explain the presence of these multiple Hurst exponents by their resemblance to the deterministic chaotic attractors having multiple centers of rotation.

  2. Statistical analysis of sunspot area and magnetic flux variations in 2001-2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkov, S. I.; Zharkova, V. V.

    This paper utilizes a searchable Solar Feature Catalogue (SFC) for sunspots created from the SOHO/MDI whitelight images and magnetograms in 2001-2003 using the automated pattern recognition techniques described at http://www.cyber.brad.ac.uk/egso/. Comparison of sunspot areas taklen from the SFC with the daily sunspot numbers published in the Sunspot Index Data Centre (SIDC) shows very good correlation of 78-86%. The total magnetic flux from sunspot areas, measured from a single solar image, is shown to have a strong northern-southern asymmetry revealing magnetic flux decrease in the northern hemisphere and an increase in the southern one with the solar cycle descendence towards the period end (year 2003). The resulting, or excess, flux has also demonstrated very significant asymmetry being negative in the southern hemisphere and positive in the northern at the beginning of the period (solar maximum, 2001)with its amplitude descreasing towards the the period end (2003), or the solar minimum. Also, in 2003 there are signs of change in the excess flux polarity between the northern and southern hemispheres.

  3. Can sunspot activity and ultraviolet-B radiation explain cyclic outbreaks of forest moth pest species?

    PubMed

    Selås, Vidar; Hogstad, Olav; Kobro, Sverre; Rafoss, Trond

    2004-09-22

    Cyclic outbreaks of forest moth pest species have long remained a puzzle for foresters and ecologists. This paper presents time-series exhibiting a strong negative relationship between sunspot numbers and population indices of autumnal and winter moths, both in a mountain birch forest in central Norway and in a mixed lowland forest in southern Norway. In the latter area, also the population level of a moth species feeding entirely on lichens was negatively related to sunspot numbers. Low sunspot activity leads to a thinner ozone layer and thus higher surface ultraviolet (UV)-B radiation. As winter moth larvae prefer leaves subjected to enhanced UV-B radiation, we suggest that the causal relationship between sunspots and moths is that the metabolic costs of producing UV-B-protective pigments during periods of low sunspot activity reduce trees' and lichens' resistance to herbivores, and thus increase the survival of moth larvae. Higher peak densities of moth cycles in mountain forests could be explained by the general higher UV-B radiation at higher altitudes.

  4. The Big, the Bad, and the Ugly: Citizen scientist sunspot classification with Sunspot Zoo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Higgins, P. A.; O'Callaghan, D.; Perez-Suarez, D.; Roche, J.; Leka, K. D.; Barnes, G.; Slater, G. L.; Murray, S.; Gallagher, P.

    2013-12-01

    It is not currently possible to reliably forecast the occurrence of solar flares. To date, one of the best predictors for the occurrence of flares is that a sunspot group has already produced large flares. Without knowledge of prior activity, the best predictions are generally achieved by systems using human-based visual recognition (e.g., human expert forecasters). This project explores the possibility of using `the crowd' to feed information to a forecasting algorithm to improve the current state of flare prediction. The aims of Sunspot Zoo are: to create a crowd-sourced sunspot group complexity ranking; to test if complexity predicts flaring; to stimulate interest in solar physics and citizen science in school students and the public. Sunspot Zoo will soon be made available through Zooniverse.org to allow large-scale participation. An outreach program will bring Sunspot Zoo to schools in Ireland this Autumn.

  5. Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 2. Using Geomagnetic and Auroral Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lockwood, M.; Owens, M. J.; Barnard, L.; Scott, C. J.; Usoskin, I. G.; Nevanlinna, H.

    2016-06-01

    We compare four sunspot-number data sequences against geomagnetic and terrestrial auroral observations. The comparisons are made for the original Solar Influences Data Center (SIDC) composite of Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [ R_{ISNv1}], the group sunspot number [ RG] by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 181, 491, 1998), the new "backbone" group sunspot number [ R_{BB}] by Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys., DOI 10.1007/s11207-015-0815-8, 2016), and the "corrected" sunspot number [ RC] by Lockwood, Owens, and Barnard (J. Geophys. Res. 119, 5172, 2014a). Each sunspot number is fitted with terrestrial observations, or parameters derived from terrestrial observations to be linearly proportional to sunspot number, over a 30-year calibration interval of 1982 - 2012. The fits are then used to compute test sequences, which extend further back in time and which are compared to R_{ISNv1}, RG, R_{BB}, and RC. To study the long-term trends, comparisons are made using averages over whole solar cycles (minimum-to-minimum). The test variations are generated in four ways: i) using the IDV(1d) and IDV geomagnetic indices (for 1845 - 2013) fitted over the calibration interval using the various sunspot numbers and the phase of the solar cycle; ii) from the open solar flux (OSF) generated for 1845 - 2013 from four pairings of geomagnetic indices by Lockwood et al. (Ann. Geophys. 32, 383, 2014a) and analysed using the OSF continuity model of Solanki, Schüssler, and Fligge (Nature, 408, 445, 2000), which employs a constant fractional OSF loss rate; iii) the same OSF data analysed using the OSF continuity model of Owens and Lockwood (J. Geophys. Res. 117, A04102, 2012), in which the fractional loss rate varies with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet and hence with the phase of the solar cycle; iv) the occurrence frequency of low-latitude aurora for 1780 - 1980 from the survey of Legrand and Simon (Ann. Geophys. 5, 161, 1987). For all cases, R_{BB} exceeds the test

  6. An Alternative Measure of Solar Activity from Detailed Sunspot Datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muraközy, J.; Baranyi, T.; Ludmány, A.

    2016-05-01

    The sunspot number is analyzed by using detailed sunspot data, including aspects of observability, sunspot sizes, and proper identification of sunspot groups as discrete entities of solar activity. The tests show that in addition to the subjective factors there are also objective causes of the ambiguities in the series of sunspot numbers. To introduce an alternative solar-activity measure, the physical meaning of the sunspot number has to be reconsidered. It contains two components whose numbers are governed by different physical mechanisms and this is one source of the ambiguity. This article suggests an activity index, which is the amount of emerged magnetic flux. The only long-term proxy measure is the detailed sunspot-area dataset with proper calibration to the magnetic flux. The Debrecen sunspot databases provide an appropriate source for the establishment of the suggested activity index.

  7. Sunspot drawings handwritten character recognition method based on deep learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Sheng; Zeng, Xiangyun; Lin, Ganghua; Zhao, Cui; Feng, Yongli; Tao, Jinping; Zhu, Daoyuan; Xiong, Li

    2016-05-01

    High accuracy scanned sunspot drawings handwritten characters recognition is an issue of critical importance to analyze sunspots movement and store them in the database. This paper presents a robust deep learning method for scanned sunspot drawings handwritten characters recognition. The convolution neural network (CNN) is one algorithm of deep learning which is truly successful in training of multi-layer network structure. CNN is used to train recognition model of handwritten character images which are extracted from the original sunspot drawings. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method on sunspot drawings provided by Chinese Academy Yunnan Observatory and obtain the daily full-disc sunspot numbers and sunspot areas from the sunspot drawings. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a high recognition accurate rate.

  8. a Solar Eruption Driven by Sunspot Rotation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    CHEN, Y.; Ruan, G.

    2013-12-01

    We present an observational study of a major solar eruption associated with fast sunspot rotation. The event includes a sigmoidal filament eruption, a coronal mass ejection, and a GOES X2.1 flare from NOAA AR11283. The filament and some overlying coronal arcades were partially rooted in a sunspot, which rotated at an average rate of ˜10 degrees per hour during a period of 6 hours prior to the eruption. Along with the sunspot rotation, significant amounts of magnetic energy ~10^31 erg and helicity 10^41 Mx^2 were transported into the corona. In the 6-hour period, we also found an overall decrease (increase) of the mean photospheric horizontal field strength (magnetic field inclination angle) using the HMI data measured in the region along the polarity inversion line underneath the filament, and a gradual levitation of current density concentrations in the corona according to the NLFFF (NonLinear Force Free Field) extrapolation. These results indicate that the magnetic structure carrying the filament undergoes an overall gradual ascending motion before its final eruption, consistent in general with the observed filament dynamical evolution during the sunspot rotation. The study provides direct evidences of sunspot rotation as a major process twisting, energizing, and destabilizing the coronal filament-flux rope system leading to the eruption.

  9. New calibrated sunspot group series since 1749

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Usoskin, Ilya; Kovaltsov, Gennady; Lockwood, Michael; Mursula, Kalevi; Owens, Matthew; Sonaki, Sami

    2016-04-01

    The largest uncertainty of the long sunspot-number series is related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. A traditional way for such calibration is a daisy-chain regression method, which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method for calibrating the visual acuity of the key solar observers to the reference data set of the Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900 - 1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. The observational thresholds is defined for each observer relative to the reference data set. As a result, a new calibrated series of sunspot group numbers is obtained, without any daisy-chain regression. The new series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton Minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg Minimum), as well as the Modern Grand Maximum of activity in the second half of the twentieth century. The new result is fully consistent with the 'classical' group sunspot number series (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998) after 1830 but suggests a slightly higher activity before 1830. On the other hand, the new result implies that a recent correction by Clette et al. (2014) and Svalgaard and Schatten (2016) overestimated sunspot activity before 1900.

  10. Geomagnetic activity during 10 - 11 solar cycles that has been observed by old Russian observatories.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seredyn, Tomasz; Wysokinski, Arkadiusz; Kobylinski, Zbigniew; Bialy, Jerzy

    2016-07-01

    A good knowledge of solar-terrestrial relations during past solar activity cycles could give the appropriate tools for a correct space weather forecast. The paper focuses on the analysis of the historical collections of the ground based magnetic observations and their operational indices from the period of two sunspot solar cycles 10 - 11, period 1856 - 1878 (Bartels rotations 324 - 635). We use hourly observations of H and D geomagnetic field components registered at Russian stations: St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk, Barnaul, Ekaterinburg, Nertshinsk, Sitka, and compare them to the data obtained from the Helsinki observatory. We compare directly these records and also calculated from the data of the every above mentioned station IHV indices introduced by Svalgaard (2003), which have been used for further comparisons in epochs of assumed different polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field. We used also local index C9 derived by Zosimovich (1981) from St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk data. Solar activity is represented by sunspot numbers. The correlative and continuous wavelet analyses are applied for estimation of the correctness of records from different magnetic stations. We have specially regard to magnetic storms in the investigated period and the special Carrington event of 1-2 Sep 1859. Generally studied magnetic time series correctly show variability of the geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity presents some delay in relation to solar one as it is seen especially during descending and minimum phase of the even 11-year cycle. This pattern looks similarly in the case of 16 - 17 solar cycles.

  11. The Discontinuity Circa 1885 in the Group Sunspot Number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cliver, E. W.; Ling, A. G.

    2016-02-01

    On average, the international sunspot number ( RI) is 44 % higher than the group sunspot number ( RG) from 1885 to the beginning of the RI series in 1700. This is the principal difference between RI and RG. Here we show that this difference is primarily due to an inhomogeneity in the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) record of sunspot groups (1874 - 1976) used to derive observer normalization factors (called k-factors) for RG. Specifically, annual RGO group counts increase relative to those of Wolfer and other long-term observers from 1876 - 1915. A secondary contributing cause is that the k-factors for observers who began observing before 1884 and overlapped with RGO for any years during 1874 - 1883 were not based on direct comparison with RGO but were calculated using one or more intermediary or additional observers. We introduce R_{GC} by rectifying the RGO group counts from 1874 - 1915 and basing k-factors on direct comparison with RGO across the 1885 discontinuity, which brings the RG and RI series into reasonable agreement for the 1841 - 1885 interval (after correcting RI for an inhomogeneity from 1849 - 1867 (to give R_{IC})). Comparison with an independently derived backbone-based reconstruction of RG ( R_{BB}) indicates that R_{GC} over-corrects R_{BB} by 4 % on average from 1841 - 1925. Our analysis suggests that the maxima of Cycles 10 (in 1860), 12 (1883/1884), and 13 (1893) in the R_{IC} series are too low by ≈ 10 %.

  12. Does sunspot numbers cause global temperatures? A reconsideration using non-parametric causality tests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassani, Hossein; Huang, Xu; Gupta, Rangan; Ghodsi, Mansi

    2016-10-01

    In a recent paper, Gupta et al., (2015), analyzed whether sunspot numbers cause global temperatures based on monthly data covering the period 1880:1-2013:9. The authors find that standard time domain Granger causality test fails to reject the null hypothesis that sunspot numbers do not cause global temperatures for both full and sub-samples, namely 1880:1-1936:2, ​1936:3-1986:11 and 1986:12-2013:9 (identified based on tests of structural breaks). However, frequency domain causality test detects predictability for the full-sample at short (2-2.6 months) cycle lengths, but not the sub-samples. But since, full-sample causality cannot be relied upon due to structural breaks, Gupta et al., (2015) conclude that the evidence of causality running from sunspot numbers to global temperatures is weak and inconclusive. Given the importance of the issue of global warming, our current paper aims to revisit this issue of whether sunspot numbers cause global temperatures, using the same data set and sub-samples used by Gupta et al., (2015), based on an nonparametric Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)-based causality test. Based on this test, we however, show that sunspot numbers have predictive ability for global temperatures for the three sub-samples, over and above the full-sample. Thus, generally speaking, our non-parametric SSA-based causality test outperformed both time domain and frequency domain causality tests and highlighted that sunspot numbers have always been important in predicting global temperatures.

  13. Deciphering solar turbulence from sunspots records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plunian, F.; Sarson, G. R.; Stepanov, R.

    2009-11-01

    It is generally believed that sunspots are the emergent part of magnetic flux tubes in the solar interior. These tubes are created at the base of the convection zone and rise to the surface due to their magnetic buoyancy. The motion of plasma in the convection zone being highly turbulent, the surface manifestation of sunspots may retain the signature of this turbulence, including its intermittency. From direct observations of sunspots, and indirect observations of the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes 14C in tree rings or 10Be in polar ice, power spectral densities in frequency are plotted. Two different frequency scalings emerge, depending on whether the Sun is quiescent or active. From direct observations we can also calculate scaling exponents. These testify to a strong intermittency, comparable with that observed in the solar wind.

  14. A Simple Method to Check the Reliability of Annual Sunspot Number in the Historical Period 1610 - 1847

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaquero, J. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Gallego, M. C.

    2012-04-01

    A simple method to detect inconsistencies in low annual sunspot numbers based on the relationship between these values and the annual number of active days is described. The analysis allowed for the detection of problems in the annual sunspot number series clustered in a few explicit periods, namely: i) before Maunder minimum, ii) the year 1652 during the Maunder minimum, iii) the year 1741 in Solar Cycle -1, and iv) the so-called "lost" solar cycle in the 1790s and the subsequent onset of the Dalton Minimum.

  15. A Comparison of Rome Observatory Sunspot Area and Sunspot Number Determinations With International Measures, 1958-1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Two changes in recording the sunspot record have occurred in recent years. First, in 1976, the longer-than-100-yr daily photographic record of the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO), used for determination of numbers and positions of sunspot groups and sunspot areas ended, and second, at the end of 1980, after more than 130 years, Zurich s Swiss Federal Observatory stopped providing daily sunspot numbers. To extend the sunspot record beyond 1976, use of United States Air Force/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA) sunspot drawing observations from the Solar Optical Observing Network began in 1977, and the combined record of sunspot activity from RGO/USAF/NOAA was made accessible at http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/PAD/SOLAR/greenwch.htm. Also, in 1981, the task of providing daily sunspot numbers was taken up by the Royal Observatory of Belgium s Solar Influences and Data analysis Center, and the combined Zurich/International sunspot number database was made available at http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3. In this study, Rome Observatory 1958-1998 photographic records of sunspot areas, numbers of groups, and derived sunspot numbers are compared against same-day international values to determine relative behaviors and to evaluate whether any potential changes might have been introduced in the overall sunspot record, due to the aforementioned changes.

  16. REVISITED SUNSPOT DATA: A NEW SCENARIO FOR THE ONSET OF THE MAUNDER MINIMUM

    SciTech Connect

    Vaquero, Jose M.; Gallego, M. C.; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A. E-mail: maricruz@unex.es E-mail: gen.koval@mail.ru

    2011-04-20

    The Maunder minimum forms an archetype for the Grand minima, and detailed knowledge of its temporal development has important consequences for the solar dynamo theory dealing with long-term solar activity evolution. Here, we reconsider the current paradigm of the Grand minimum general scenario by using newly recovered sunspot observations by G. Marcgraf and revising some earlier uncertain data for the period 1636-1642, i.e., one solar cycle before the beginning of the Maunder minimum. The new and revised data dramatically change the magnitude of the sunspot cycle just before the Maunder minimum, from 60-70 down to about 20, implying a possibly gradual onset of the minimum with reduced activity started two cycles before it. This revised scenario of the Maunder minimum changes, through the paradigm for Grand solar/stellar activity minima, the observational constraint on the solar/stellar dynamo theories focused on long-term studies and occurrence of Grand minima.

  17. Two regimes in the regularity of sunspot number

    SciTech Connect

    Shapoval, A.; Shnirman, M.

    2013-12-20

    Sunspot numbers WN display quasi-periodical variations that undergo regime changes. These irregularities could indicate a chaotic system and be measured by Lyapunov exponents. We define a functional λ (an 'irregularity index') that is close to the (maximal) Lyapunov exponent for dynamical systems and well defined for series with a random component: this allows one to work with sunspot numbers. We compute λ for the daily WN from 1850 to 2012 within 4 yr sliding windows: λ exhibit sharp maxima at solar minima and secondary maxima at solar maxima. This pattern is reflected in the ratio R of the amplitudes of the main versus secondary peaks. Two regimes have alternated in the past 150 yr, R1 from 1850 to 1915 (large λ and R values) and R2 from 1935 to 2005 (shrinking difference between main and secondary maxima, R values between 1 and 2). We build an autoregressive model consisting of Poisson noise plus an 11 yr cycle and compute its irregularity index. The transition from R1 to R2 can be reproduced by strengthening the autocorrelation a of the model series. The features of the two regimes are stable for model and WN with respect to embedding dimension and delay. Near the time of the last solar minimum (∼2008), the irregularity index exhibits a peak similar to the peaks observed before 1915. This might signal a regime change back from R2 to R1 and the onset of a significant decrease of solar activity.

  18. Phase relationship between the relative sunspot numbers and solar mean magnetic field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Zq; Han, YB

    2015-08-01

    Short-term variations of the solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) were investigated through re-analyzing the data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory during the last four solar activity cycles using continuous wavelet transforms. We demonstrated the time-variable characters of short-term periods of SMMF. Our results indicate that the SMMF has main periods of about 27 and 13.5 days not only in the minimum and maximum years of each activity cycle, but also in the increase and decrease of the solar cycle. The entire time span of SMMF was investigated and discussed further (DOI 10.1007/s11434-014-0594-x). Sunspot numbers (SSN) are caused by intense magnetic activity, and they are associated with strong magnetic fields in active region, while SMMF describe the large-scale manifestations of solar magnetism. The continuous wavelet, cross wavelet, and wavelet coherence analyses, are employed to clarify the phase relationship between the daily and smoothed monthly mean sunspot number and SMMF. Analysis shows that there is a region of high spectral power sitting across the Schwabe cycle belt, where the SSN lead the SMMF by about 10 months. However, analysis of the cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence unveils asynchronous behavior featured with phase mixing in the high-frequency components of SSN and SMMF, The time-variable characteristics of periods of SMMF and sunspots and their cross-relations are investigated and discussed during the different phase of solar cycles.

  19. On climatic changes related to the 22-year solar cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuurmans, C. J. E.

    1974-01-01

    The 22-year or double sunspot cycle as a cause for longitudinal displacements of atmospheric semi-permanent centers of action is studied. A difference in frequency of occurence of Icelandic lows between the two halves of the double sunspot cycle during winter seasons is found.

  20. Sunspots and Their Simple Harmonic Motion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ribeiro, C. I.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an example of a simple harmonic motion, the apparent motion of sunspots due to the Sun's rotation, is described, which can be used to teach this subject to high-school students. Using real images of the Sun, students can calculate the star's rotation period with the simple harmonic motion mathematical expression.

  1. The Sunspot Record: 1826-1980

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2014-01-01

    The International Sunspot Number is used as a measure of the level of solar activity in many important studies. This includes studies of the effects of solar activity on climate change and on the generation of radioisotopes used to infer levels of solar activity going back thousands of years. Any systematic errors in the historical record of the sunspot number can profoundly alter the conclusions of these studies. There is substantial evidence that the currently accepted International Sunspot Numbers have been subjected to changes in the way the numbers are calculated and to changes in the weights given to observations of various observers. In this talk I will focus on the time period from 1826 to 1980 which covers principal observers Schwabe, Wolf, Wolfer, Brunner, and Waldmeier. Previous investigations have indicated problems associated with Schwabe's observations (1826 to 1867), the first decades of the Greenwich observations (1874 to about 1910), and the introduction of a different counting method by Waldmeier (1946-1980). I will examine the evidence for these problems and the possible solutions that might be used to provide improved estimates of the sunspot numbers and their errors over this time interval.

  2. Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Love, J.J.; Mursula, K.; Tsai, V.C.; Perkins, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically- significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction. ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Sunspots and Giant-Cell Convection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Ron L.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Ed J.

    2000-01-01

    From analysis of Doppler velocity images from SOHO/MDI, Hathaway et al (2000, Solar Phys., in press) have found clear evidence for giant convection cells that fill the solar surface, have diameters 3 - 10 times that typical of supergranules, and have lifetimes approx. greater than 10 days. Analogous to the superposition of the granular convection on the supergranular convection, the approx. 30,000 km diameter supergranules are superposed on these still larger giant cells. Because the giant cells make up the large-scale end of a continuous power spectrum that peaks at the size scale of supergranules, it appears that the giant cells are made by the same mode of convection as the supergranules. This suggests that the giant cells are similar to supergranules, just longer-lived, larger in diameter, and deeper. Here we point out that the range of lengths of large bipolar sunspot groups is similar to the size range of giant cells. This, along with the long lives (weeks) of large sunspots, suggests that large sunspots sit in long-lived, deep downflows at the corners of giant cells, and that the distance from leader to follower sunspots in large bipolar groups is the distance from one giant-cell corner to the next. By this line of reasoning, an unusually large and strong downdraft might pull in both legs of a rising spot-group magnetic flux loop, resulting in the formation of a delta sunspot. This leads us to suggest that a large, strong giant-cell corner downdraft should be present at the birthplaces of large delta sunspots for some time (days to weeks) before the birth. Thus, early detection of such downdrafts by local helioscismology might provide an early warning for the formation of those active regions (large delta sunspot groups) that produce the Sun's most violent flares and coronal mass ejections. This work is supported by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Solar Physics Branch of its Sun-Earth Connection Program.

  4. Magnetic tension of sunspot fine structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venkatakrishnan, P.; Tiwari, Sanjiv Kumar

    2010-06-01

    Context. The equilibrium structure of sunspots depends critically on its magnetic topology and is dominated by magnetic forces. Tension force is one component of the Lorentz force, which balances the gradient of magnetic pressure in force-free configurations. Aims: We employ the tension term of the Lorentz force to clarify the structure of sunspot features like penumbral filaments, umbral light bridges, and outer penumbral fine structures. Methods: We computed the vertical component of the tension term of Lorentz force over two active regions, NOAA AR 10933 and NOAA AR 10930 observed on 5 January 2007 and 12 December 2006, respectively. The former is a simple active region while the latter is a complex one with highly sheared polarity inversion line (PIL). We obtained the vector magnetograms from Hinode(SOT/SP). Results: We find an inhomogeneous distribution of tension with both positive and negative signs in various features of the sunspots. The existence of positive tension at locations of lower field strength and higher inclination is compatible with the uncombed model of the penumbral structure. Positive tension is also seen in umbral light bridges, which could be indication of uncombed structure of the light bridge. Likewise, the upwardly directed tension associated with bipolar regions in the penumbra could be a direct confirmation of the sea serpent model of penumbral structures. Upwardly directed tension at the PIL of AR 10930 seems to be related to flux emergence. The magnitude of the tension force is greater than the force of gravity in some places, implying a nearly force-free configuration for these sunspot features. Conclusions: From our study, magnetic tension emerges as a useful diagnostic of the local equilibrium of the sunspot fine structures. Figures A.1-A.3 are only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  5. On the contribution of sunspots to the observed frequency shifts of solar acoustic modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, A. R. G.; Cunha, M. S.; Avelino, P. P.; Chaplin, W. J.; Campante, T. L.

    2016-09-01

    Activity-related variations in the solar oscillation properties have been known for 30 years. However, the relative importance of the different contributions to the observed variations is not yet fully understood. Our goal is to estimate the relative contribution from sunspots to the observed activity-related variations in the frequencies of the acoustic modes. We use a variational principle to relate the phase differences induced by sunspots on the acoustic waves to the corresponding changes in the frequencies of the global acoustic oscillations. From the sunspot properties (area and latitude as a function of time), we are able to estimate the spot-induced frequency shifts. These are then combined with a smooth frequency shift component, associated with long-term solar-cycle variations, and the results compared with the frequency shifts derived from the Global Oscillation Network Group data. The result of this comparison is consistent with a sunspot contribution to the observed frequency shifts of roughly 30 per cent, with the remaining 70 per cent resulting mostly from a global, non-stochastic variation, possibly related to the changes in the overall magnetic field. Moreover, analysis of the residuals obtained after the subtraction of the model frequency shifts from the observations indicates the presence of a 1.5-yr periodicity in the data in phase with the quasi-biennial variations reported in the literature.

  6. Flaring Rates and the Evolution of Sunspot Group McIntosh Classifications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCloskey, Aoife E.; Gallagher, Peter T.; Bloomfield, D. Shaun

    2016-08-01

    Sunspot groups are the main source of solar flares, with the energy to power them being supplied by magnetic-field evolution ( e.g. flux emergence or twisting/shearing). To date, few studies have investigated the statistical relation between sunspot-group evolution and flaring, with none considering evolution in the McIntosh classification scheme. Here we present a statistical analysis of sunspot groups from Solar Cycle 22, focusing on 24-hour changes in the three McIntosh classification components. Evolution-dependent ≥ C1.0, ≥ M1.0, and ≥ X1.0 flaring rates are calculated, leading to the following results: i) flaring rates become increasingly higher for greater degrees of upward evolution through the McIntosh classes, with the opposite found for downward evolution; ii) the highest flaring rates are found for upward evolution from larger, more complex, classes ( e.g. Zurich D- and E-classes evolving upward to F-class produce ≥ C1.0 rates of 2.66± 0.28 and 2.31 ± 0.09 flares per 24 hours, respectively); iii) increasingly complex classes give higher rates for all flare magnitudes, even when sunspot groups do not evolve over 24 hours. These results support the hypothesis that injection of magnetic energy by flux emergence ( i.e. increasing in Zurich or compactness classes) leads to a higher frequency and magnitude of flaring.

  7. ASYMMETRIC SUNSPOT ACTIVITY AND THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HELIOSPHERIC CURRENT SHEET

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Y.-M.; Robbrecht, E. E-mail: eva.robbrecht@oma.be

    2011-08-01

    Observations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have suggested a statistical tendency for the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) to be shifted a few degrees southward of the heliographic equator during the period 1965-2010, particularly in the years near sunspot minimum. Using potential-field source-surface extrapolations and photospheric flux-transport simulations, we demonstrate that this southward displacement follows from Joy's law and the observed hemispheric asymmetry in the sunspot numbers, with activity being stronger in the southern (northern) hemisphere during the declining (rising) phase of cycles 20-23. The hemispheric asymmetry gives rise to an axisymmetric quadrupole field, whose equatorial zone has the sign of the leading-polarity flux in the dominant hemisphere; during the last four cycles, the polarity of the IMF around the equator thus tended to match that of the north polar field both before and after polar field reversal. However, large fluctuations are introduced by the nonaxisymmetric field components, which depend on the longitudinal distribution of sunspot activity in either hemisphere. Consistent with this model, the HCS showed an average northward displacement during cycle 19, when the 'usual' alternation was reversed and the northern hemisphere became far more active than the southern hemisphere during the declining phase of the cycle. We propose a new method for determining the north-south displacement of the HCS from coronal streamer observations.

  8. Angular Dependence of the Facular-Sunspot Coverage Relation as Derived by MDI Magnetograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Criscuoli, S.

    2016-08-01

    Previous studies have shown that the variation over the solar magnetic activity cycle of the area of facular/network features identified from broad-band and narrow-band imagery is positively correlated with the sunspot area and number, the relation being described as either linear or quadratic. On the other hand, the temporal variation of the spatial distributions of faculae, network and sunspots follows patterns that are less obviously correlated, so that we expect the relation that describes variation of the area coverage of different types of magnetic features to vary with the position over the disk. In this work we employ Michelson Doppler Interferometer (MDI) full-disk magnetograms acquired during solar cycle 23 and at the beginning of cycle 24 to investigate the relation between the coverage of magnetic elements characterized by different amounts of magnetic flux and located at different angular distances from disk center with the sunspot number. In agreement with some previous studies we find that daily data are best described by a quadratic function while data averaged over six months are best described by a linear function. In both cases the coefficients of the fits show large dependence on the position over the disk and the magnetic flux. We also find that toward disk center six-month averaged data show asymmetries between the ascending and the descending phases. The implications for solar irradiance modeling are discussed.

  9. Sunspots During the Maunder Minimum from Machina Coelestis by Hevelius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrasco, V. M. S.; Álvarez, J. Villalba; Vaquero, J. M.

    2015-10-01

    We revisited the sunspot observations published by Johannes Hevelius in his book Machina Coelestis (1679) corresponding to the period of 1653 - 1675 (just in the middle of the Maunder Minimum). We show detailed translations of the original Latin texts describing the sunspot records and provide the general context of these sunspot observations. From this source, we present an estimate of the annual values of the group sunspot number based only on the records that explicitly inform us of the presence or absence of sunspots. Although we obtain very low values of the group sunspot number, in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity, these values are significantly higher in general than the values provided by Hoyt and Schatten ( Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998) for the same period.

  10. Pre-flare dynamics of sunspot groups

    SciTech Connect

    Korsós, M. B.; Baranyi, T.; Ludmány, A. E-mail: baranyi.tunde@csfk.mta.hu

    2014-07-10

    Several papers provide evidence that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare-producing areas, this work intends to reveal the characteristic temporal variations in these regions prior to flares. This study uses sunspot data instead of magnetograms and follows the behavior of a suitable defined proxy measure representing the horizontal magnetic field gradient. The source of the data is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data) sunspot catalog. The most promising pre-flare signatures are the following properties of gradient variation: (1) steep increase, (2) high maximum, (3) significant fluctuation, and (4) a gradual decrease between the maximum and the flare onset that can be related to the 'pull mode' of the current layer. These properties may yield a tool for the assessment of flare probability and intensity within the following 8-10 hr.

  11. Observing Sunspots with 18th Century Optics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svalgaard, Leif

    2016-05-01

    The sunspot and group numbers in the 18th Century relies heavily on the observations by J.C. Staudauch during 1749-1799 performed with a three-foot 'sky tube', likely affected by spherical and chromatc aberration. An observing network has been set up to make drawings of the spots on the solar disk using original telescopes from the 18th Century or reconstructed 'sky tubes' with the same defects as the instruments available to and affordable for amateurs of the period. We report the initial results of the effort, finding that the counts of groups and the sunspot numbers must be multipled by three to reproduce modern observations. This confirms the scale factors derived from recent revisions of the solar record.

  12. Energy Transport Below Sunspots and Faculae

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.; Mayr, Hans G.

    1990-01-01

    Sunspots and faculae were modeled using a modified stellar envelope code. Downflow velocities of 50 m/sec can achieve a 1,000 K drop in the surface temperature of the photosphere and reduce the surface irradiance to half its value. Concurrently, a 600 km Wilson depression forms that is associated with the enhanced density of the cooler gases. Similar upflow velocities provide for slightly enhanced temperatures and 150 km uplifted surfaces for faculae. The calculations show that, to first approximation, sunspot and facular structures (in density, temperature and pressure) can be obtained by simply vertically shifting the undisturbed photospheric materials to form wells and hillock geometries, respectively. However, the chromospheric manifestations of these features can be quite different owing to the influence of the magnetic field and flow.

  13. Resonant absorption of p-modes by sunspots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chitre, S. M.; Davila, Joseph M.

    1990-01-01

    Explanations for the observed p-mode absorption in sunspots are examined. It is demonstrated that any dissipative process like radiative, viscous, or resistive dissipation leads to the resonant absorption of acoustic waves incident on the sunspot tube, and that the resultant heating rate can be shown to be consistent with the observed absorption of the p-mode power impinging on an isolated inhomogeneously structured sunspot.

  14. Flare differentially rotates sunspot on Sun's surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Chang; Xu, Yan; Cao, Wenda; Deng, Na; Lee, Jeongwoo; Hudson, Hugh S.; Gary, Dale E.; Wang, Jiasheng; Jing, Ju; Wang, Haimin

    2016-10-01

    Sunspots are concentrations of magnetic field visible on the solar surface (photosphere). It was considered implausible that solar flares, as resulted from magnetic reconnection in the tenuous corona, would cause a direct perturbation of the dense photosphere involving bulk motion. Here we report the sudden flare-induced rotation of a sunspot using the unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution of the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope, supplemented by magnetic data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. It is clearly observed that the rotation is non-uniform over the sunspot: as the flare ribbon sweeps across, its different portions accelerate (up to ~50° h-1) at different times corresponding to peaks of flare hard X-ray emission. The rotation may be driven by the surface Lorentz-force change due to the back reaction of coronal magnetic restructuring and is accompanied by a downward Poynting flux. These results have direct consequences for our understanding of energy and momentum transportation in the flare-related phenomena.

  15. Flare differentially rotates sunspot on Sun's surface

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Chang; Xu, Yan; Cao, Wenda; Deng, Na; Lee, Jeongwoo; Hudson, Hugh S.; Gary, Dale E.; Wang, Jiasheng; Jing, Ju; Wang, Haimin

    2016-01-01

    Sunspots are concentrations of magnetic field visible on the solar surface (photosphere). It was considered implausible that solar flares, as resulted from magnetic reconnection in the tenuous corona, would cause a direct perturbation of the dense photosphere involving bulk motion. Here we report the sudden flare-induced rotation of a sunspot using the unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution of the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope, supplemented by magnetic data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. It is clearly observed that the rotation is non-uniform over the sunspot: as the flare ribbon sweeps across, its different portions accelerate (up to ∼50° h−1) at different times corresponding to peaks of flare hard X-ray emission. The rotation may be driven by the surface Lorentz-force change due to the back reaction of coronal magnetic restructuring and is accompanied by a downward Poynting flux. These results have direct consequences for our understanding of energy and momentum transportation in the flare-related phenomena. PMID:27721463

  16. Superpenumbral fibrils powered by sunspot oscillations

    SciTech Connect

    Chae, Jongchul; Yang, Heesu; Park, Hyungmin; Maurya, Ram Ajor; Cho, Kyung-Suk; Yurchysyn, Vasyl

    2014-07-10

    It is still a mystery how the solar chromosphere can stand high above the photosphere. The dominant portion of this layer must be dynamically supported, as is evident by the common occurrence of jets such as spicules and mottles in quiet regions, and fibrils and surges in active regions. Hence, revealing the driving mechanism of these chromospheric jets is crucial for our understanding of how the chromosphere itself exists. Here, we report our observational finding that fibrils in the superpenumbra of a sunspot are powered by sunspot oscillations. We find patterns of outward propagation that apparently originate from inside the sunspot, propagate like running penumbral waves, and develop into the fibrils. Redshift ridges seen in the time-distance plots of velocity often merge, forming a fork-like pattern. The predominant period of these shock waves increases, often jumping with distance, from 3 minutes to 10 minutes. This short-to-long period transition seems to result from the selective suppression of shocks by the falling material of their preceding shocks. Based on our results, we propose that the fibrils are driven by slow shock waves with long periods that are produced by the merging of shock waves with shorter periods propagating along the magnetic canopy.

  17. Time-distance helioseismology in the vicinity of sunspots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    D'Silva, Sydney; Duvall, Thomas L., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    We use the ray description of acoustic-gravity modes to calculate time-distance diagrams for the quiet Sun and for regions in the vicinity of a sunspot with a monolithic flux-tube structure. Time-distance curves for the quiet Sun match the observations of Duvall et al. In the vicinity of a sunspot these quiet Sun curves split into a family of closely spaced curves. The structure of this bandlike feature is found to be sensitive to the sunspot model and can be a diagnostic of the subsurface geometry of the sunspot flux tube.

  18. Major revision of sunspot number: implication for the ionosphere models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulyaeva, Tamara

    2016-07-01

    Recently on 1st July, 2015, a major revision of the historical sunspot number series has been carried out as discussed in [Clette et al., Revisiting the Sunspot Number. A 400-Year Perspective on the Solar Cycle, Space Science Reviews, 186, Issue 1-4, pp. 35-103, 2014). The revised SSN2.0 dataset is provided along with the former SSN1.0 data at http://sidc.oma.be/silso/. The SSN2.0 values exceed the former conventional SSN1.0 data so that new SSNs are greater in many cases than the solar radio flux F10.7 values which pose a problem of SSN2.0 implementation as a driver of the International Reference Ionosphere, IRI, its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, NeQuick model, Russian Standard Ionosphere, SMI. In particular, the monthly predictions of the F2 layer peak are based on input of the ITU-R (former CCIR) and URSI maps. The CCIR and URSI maps coefficients are available for each month of the year, and for two levels of solar activity: low (SSN = 0) and high (SSN = 100). SSN is the monthly smoothed sunspot number from the SSN1.0 data set used as an index of the level of solar activity. For every SSN different from 0 or 100 the critical frequency foF2 and the M3000F2 radio propagation factor used for the peak height hmF2 production may be evaluated by an interpolation. The ionospheric proxies of the solar activity IG12 index or Global Electron Content GEC12 index, driving the ionospheric models, are also calibrated with the former SSN1.0 data. The paper presents a solar proxy intended to calibrate SSN2.0 data set to fit F10.7 solar radio flux and/or SSN1.0 data series. This study is partly supported by TUBITAK EEEAG 115E915.

  19. Anomalous flows in a sunspot penumbra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Louis, Rohan E.; Beck, Christian; Mathew, Shibu K.; Venkatakrishnan, P.

    2014-10-01

    Context. The photospheric Evershed flow is a distinct characteristic of penumbrae that is closely associated with the photometric and magnetic structure of sunspots. Aims: We analyse the properties of an anomalous flow in the photosphere in a sunspot penumbra and compare it with those of the regular Evershed flow. Methods: High-resolution spectropolarimetric observations of active region NOAA 11271 were obtained with the spectro-polarimeter (SP) on board Hinode. We used the magnetic field properties derived by a Milne-Eddington inversion. In addition, we used Ca II H images obtained by the broad-band filter instrument to study the low chromospheric response to the photospheric structure and Dopplergrams from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager to follow the evolution of the photospheric flows. Results: We detect a blueshifted feature that appeared on the limb-side penumbra of a sunspot and that was present intermittently during the next two hours. It exhibited a maximum blueshift of 1.6 km s-1, an area of 5.2 arcsec2, and a maximum uninterrupted lifetime of 1 h. The blueshifted feature, when present, lies parallel to redshifts. Both blue- and redshifts flank a highly inclined or horizontal magnetic structure that is radially oriented in the penumbra. The low-cadence SP maps reveal changes in size, radial position in the penumbra, and line-of-sight (LOS) velocity of the blueshifted feature, from one scan to the next. There was an increase of nearly 500 G in the field strength with the onset of the blueshifts, particularly when the LOS velocity in the feature exceeded 1.5 km s-1. There was only a marginal reduction in the field inclination of about 10° with the increase in blueshifts. In the chromosphere, intense, arc-shaped brightenings were observed close to the location of the photospheric blueshifts, which extend from the edge of the umbral core to the penumbra-quiet Sun boundary. The intensity of these brightenings exceeds the background intensity by 30% to 65

  20. Effects of the Scatter in Sunspot Group Tilt Angles on the Large-scale Magnetic Field at the Solar Surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, J.; Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.

    2014-08-01

    The tilt angles of sunspot groups represent the poloidal field source in Babcock-Leighton-type models of the solar dynamo and are crucial for the build-up and reversals of the polar fields in surface flux transport (SFT) simulations. The evolution of the polar field is a consequence of Hale's polarity rules, together with the tilt angle distribution which has a systematic component (Joy's law) and a random component (tilt-angle scatter). We determine the scatter using the observed tilt angle data and study the effects of this scatter on the evolution of the solar surface field using SFT simulations with flux input based upon the recorded sunspot groups. The tilt angle scatter is described in our simulations by a random component according to the observed distributions for different ranges of sunspot group size (total umbral area). By performing simulations with a number of different realizations of the scatter we study the effect of the tilt angle scatter on the global magnetic field, especially on the evolution of the axial dipole moment. The average axial dipole moment at the end of cycle 17 (a medium-amplitude cycle) from our simulations was 2.73 G. The tilt angle scatter leads to an uncertainty of 0.78 G (standard deviation). We also considered cycle 14 (a weak cycle) and cycle 19 (a strong cycle) and show that the standard deviation of the axial dipole moment is similar for all three cycles. The uncertainty mainly results from the big sunspot groups which emerge near the equator. In the framework of Babcock-Leighton dynamo models, the tilt angle scatter therefore constitutes a significant random factor in the cycle-to-cycle amplitude variability, which strongly limits the predictability of solar activity.

  1. Effects of the scatter in sunspot group tilt angles on the large-scale magnetic field at the solar surface

    SciTech Connect

    Jiang, J.; Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.

    2014-08-10

    The tilt angles of sunspot groups represent the poloidal field source in Babcock-Leighton-type models of the solar dynamo and are crucial for the build-up and reversals of the polar fields in surface flux transport (SFT) simulations. The evolution of the polar field is a consequence of Hale's polarity rules, together with the tilt angle distribution which has a systematic component (Joy's law) and a random component (tilt-angle scatter). We determine the scatter using the observed tilt angle data and study the effects of this scatter on the evolution of the solar surface field using SFT simulations with flux input based upon the recorded sunspot groups. The tilt angle scatter is described in our simulations by a random component according to the observed distributions for different ranges of sunspot group size (total umbral area). By performing simulations with a number of different realizations of the scatter we study the effect of the tilt angle scatter on the global magnetic field, especially on the evolution of the axial dipole moment. The average axial dipole moment at the end of cycle 17 (a medium-amplitude cycle) from our simulations was 2.73 G. The tilt angle scatter leads to an uncertainty of 0.78 G (standard deviation). We also considered cycle 14 (a weak cycle) and cycle 19 (a strong cycle) and show that the standard deviation of the axial dipole moment is similar for all three cycles. The uncertainty mainly results from the big sunspot groups which emerge near the equator. In the framework of Babcock-Leighton dynamo models, the tilt angle scatter therefore constitutes a significant random factor in the cycle-to-cycle amplitude variability, which strongly limits the predictability of solar activity.

  2. Tropical daytime lower D-region dependence on sunspot number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, Neil R.; Rodger, Craig J.; Clilverd, Mark A.

    2012-10-01

    Observed phases and amplitudes of VLF radio signals propagating on (near) tropical all-sea paths, both short, ˜300 km, and long, ˜10 Mm, are used to find daytime parameter changes for the lowest edge of the (D-region of the) Earth's ionosphere as the solar cycle advanced from a very low sunspot number of ˜5 up to ˜60, in the period 2009-2011. The VLF phases, relative to GPS 1-s pulses, and amplitudes were measured ˜100 km from the transmitter, where the direct ground wave is very dominant, ˜300 km from the transmitter, near where the ionospherically reflected waves form a (modal) minimum with the ground wave, and ˜10 Mm away where the lowest order waveguide mode is fully dominant. Most of the signals came from the 19.8 kHz, 1-MW transmitter, NWC, North West Cape, Australia, propagating ENE, mainly over the sea, to the vicinity of Karratha and Dampier on the NW coast of Australia and then on to Kauai, Hawaii, ˜10.6 Mm from NWC. Observations from the 8.1-Mm path NPM (21.4 kHz, Hawaii) to Dunedin, NZ, are also used. The sunspot number increase from ˜5 to ˜60 was found to coincide with a decrease in the height, H‧, of the midday tropical ionosphere by 0.75 ± 0.25 km (from H‧ ≈ 70.5 km to H‧ ≈ 69.7 km) while the sharpness, β increased by 0.025 ± 0.01 km-1 (from β ≈ 0.47 km-1 to β ≈ 0.49 km-1) where H‧ and β are the traditional height and sharpness parameters used by Wait and by the U.S. Navy in their Earth-ionosphere VLF radio waveguide programs.

  3. Joy's law and its features according to the data of three sunspot catalogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, V. G.

    2012-12-01

    This paper investigates the trend towards an increase in the tilt of sunspot groups with increasing latitude (Joy's law) and the relationship between the features of this law and solar activity parameters. In addition to the known data of the Mount Wilson and Kodaikanal observatories, the analysis uses the Pulkovo database of solar activity, which allows for the estimation of the reliability of the conclusions obtained by other authors from the first two catalogs. It is shown that Joy's law is manifested in all three data series and has many features in common. In particular at latitudes above 25-30°, the tilt of sunspot groups is not linearly dependent on latitude and displays a slight decrease. However, some features of this law found previously in the data of the first two observatories (e.g., a decrease in its strength with an increase in the strength of the solar cycle) are not confirmed by our analysis.

  4. On Solar Flares and Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir; Le Mouël, Jean-Louis; Courtillot, Vincent

    2012-02-01

    The anomalous character of Solar Cycle 23, which ended in the Summer of 2009, has been pointed out by many authors. It has even been proposed that the solar dynamo is undergoing a transition from a state of “grand maximum” to one of “regular oscillations”. We analyze the temporal distribution of the number and energy of solar flares, and the duration of intervals between them, over Cycles 21 to 23. We consider 32 355 flares of class C2 and larger (C2+) from the GOES catalogue. Daily values of X-ray flux (wavelengths 1 to 8 Å) have been computed by summing the energy proxies of the events. The series of daily numbers of C2+ solar flares are strongly correlated with their daily energy flux. The long duration of Cycle 23 (12.8 years based on sunspots, 13.2 years based on flares) and the long interval with no C2+ flare between the end of Cycle 23, and the start of Cycle 24 (466 days) are remarkable compared to the two earlier cycles. The amplitudes of extreme flares increase when the mean flux decreases. We have calculated running averages of energy flux over intervals going from 7 to 365 days. The singular shape of Cycle 23 is increasingly striking with increasing interval: in the first ≈ 70% of the cycle (displayed on a logarithmic scale) we see linearly rising maxima, whereas minima are aligned along a descending slope for the latter part of the cycle. The energy flux oscillates between these and takes the shape of a bifurcation, starting near 2002 (a time when it is suggested that photospheric fields were abruptly reduced). Inter-event intervals between successive C2+ flares undergo quasi-periodic (≈ 11 years) oscillations between two distinct states, which we call “active” and “quiet”, with extremely sharp onset and termination. The ratio of time spent in the active vs. quiet states ranges from 1.8 to 1.4 for Cycles 21 to 23, Cycle 23 having the longest quiet period. It has been proposed that anomalous Cycle 23 resembles Cycle 4, which was

  5. Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux, and streamer belt width: 2. Comparison with the geomagnetic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lockwood, M.; Owens, M. J.; Barnard, L.

    2014-07-01

    We investigate the relationship between interdiurnal variation geomagnetic activity indices, IDV and IDV(1d), corrected sunspot number, RC , and the group sunspot number RG . RC uses corrections for both the "Waldmeier discontinuity," as derived in Paper 1, and the "Wolf discontinuity" revealed by Leussu et al. (2013). We show that the simple correlation of the geomagnetic indices with RCn or RGn masks a considerable solar cycle variation. Using IDV(1d) or IDV to predict or evaluate the sunspot numbers, the errors are almost halved by allowing for the fact that the relationship varies over the solar cycle. The results indicate that differences between RC and RG have a variety of causes and are highly unlikely to be attributable to errors in either RG alone, as has recently been assumed. Because it is not known if RC or RG is a better predictor of open flux emergence before 1874, a simple sunspot number composite is suggested which, like RG , enables modeling of the open solar flux for 1610 onward in Paper 3 but maintains the characteristics of RC .

  6. SHORT DYNAMIC FIBRILS IN SUNSPOT CHROMOSPHERES

    SciTech Connect

    Rouppe van der Voort, L.; De la Cruz Rodríguez, J.

    2013-10-10

    Sunspot chromospheres display vigorous oscillatory signatures when observed using chromospheric diagnostics such as the strong Ca II lines and Hα. New high-resolution sunspot observations from the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope show the ubiquitous presence of small-scale, periodic, jet-like features that move up and down. This phenomenon has not been described before. The typical width of these features is about 0.''3 and they display clear parabolic trajectories in space-time diagrams. The maximum extension of the top of the jets is lowest in the umbra, a few 100 km, and progressively longer further away from the umbra in the penumbra, with the longest extending more than 1000 km. These jets resemble the dynamic fibrils found in plage regions but at smaller extensions. Local thermodynamic equilibrium inversion of spectropolarimetric Ca II 8542 observations enabled a comparison of the magnetic field inclination and properties of these short jets. We find that the most extended of these jets also have longer periods and tend to be located in regions with more horizontal magnetic fields. These results are direct observational confirmation of the mechanism of long-period waves propagating along inclined magnetic fields into the solar chromosphere. This mechanism was identified earlier as the driver of dynamic fibrils in plage, part of the mottles in the quiet Sun, and the type I spicules at the limb. The sunspot dynamic fibrils that we report here represent a new class of manifestation of this mechanism, distinct from the transient penumbral and umbral micro-jets reported earlier.

  7. Development of a Sunspot Tracking System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Jaime R.

    1998-01-01

    Large solar flares produce a significant amount of energetic particles which pose a hazard for human activity in space. In the hope of understanding flare mechanisms and thus better predicting solar flares, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) developed an experimental vector magnetograph (EXVM) polarimeter to measure the Sun's magnetic field. The EXVM will be used to perform ground-based solar observations and will provide a proof of concept for the design of a similar instrument for the Japanese Solar-B space mission. The EXVM typically operates for a period of several minutes. During this time there is image motion due to atmospheric fluctuation and telescope wind loading. To optimize the EXVM performance an image motion compensation device (sunspot tracker) is needed. The sunspot tracker consists of two parts, an image motion determination system and an image deflection system. For image motion determination a CCD or CID camera is used to digitize an image, than an algorithm is applied to determine the motion. This motion or error signal is sent to the image deflection system which moves the image back to its original location. Both of these systems are under development. Two algorithms are available for sunspot tracking which require the use of only one row and one column of image data. To implement these algorithms, two identical independent systems are being developed, one system for each axis of motion. Two CID cameras have been purchased; the data from each camera will be used to determine image motion for each direction. The error signal generated by the tracking algorithm will be sent to an image deflection system consisting of an actuator and a mirror constrained to move about one axis. Magnetostrictive actuators were chosen to move the mirror over piezoelectrics due to their larger driving force and larger range of motion. The actuator and mirror mounts are currently under development.

  8. Solar Cycle in the Heliosphere and Cosmic Rays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazilevskaya, Galina A.; Cliver, Edward W.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.; Ling, Alan G.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.; Usoskin, Ilya G.

    2014-12-01

    Manifestations of the 11-year solar cycle and longer time-scale variability in the heliosphere and cosmic rays are considered. We briefly review the cyclic variability of such heliospheric parameters as solar wind speed and density and heliospheric magnetic field, open magnetic flux and latitude variations of the heliospheric current sheet. It is discussed whether the local in-situ observation near Earth can represent the global 3D heliospheric pattern. Variability of cosmic rays near Earth provides an indirect useful tool to study the heliosphere. We discuss details of the heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays, as recorded at and near Earth, and their relation to the heliospheric conditions in the outer heliosphere. On the other hand, solar energetic particles can serve as probes for explosive phenomena on the Sun and conditions in the corona and inner heliosphere. The occurrence of major solar proton events depicts an overall tendency to follow the solar cycle but individual events may appear at different phases of the solar cycle, as defined by various factors. The solar cycle in the heliosphere and cosmic rays depicts a complex pattern which includes different processes and cannot be described by a simple correlation with sunspot number.

  9. Digitization of Spörer's sunspot drawings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diercke, Andrea; Arlt, Rainer; Denker, Carsten

    2013-07-01

    Much of our knowledge about the solar dynamo is based on sunspot observations. It is thus desirable to extend the set of positional and morphological data of sunspots into the past. Gustav Spörer observed in Germany from Anklam (1861-1873) and Potsdam (1874-1894). He left detailed prints of sunspot groups, which we digitized and processed to mitigate artifacts left in the print by the passage of time. After careful geometrical correction, the sunspot data are now available as synoptic charts for almost 450 solar rotation periods. Individual sunspot positions can thus be precisely determined and spot areas can be accurately measured using morphological image processing techniques. These methods also allow us to determine tilt angles of active regions (Joy's law) and to assess the complexity of an active region.

  10. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    SciTech Connect

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

    2015-09-30

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  11. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

    2015-09-01

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  12. Is a sudden increase of irregularity of sunspot numbers a precursor of a return to low solar activity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapoval, A.; Le Mouël, J.-L.; Courtillot, V.; Shnirman, M.

    2014-08-01

    We have recently introduced an irregularity index λ for daily sunspot numbers International Sunspot Number (ISSN), derived from the well-known Lyapunov exponent, that attempts to reflect irregularities in the chaotic process of solar activity. Like the Lyapunov exponent, the irregularity index is computed from the data for different embedding dimensions m (2-32). When m = 2, λ maxima match ISSN maxima of the Schwabe cycle, whereas when m = 3, λ maxima occur at ISSN minima. The patterns of λ as a function of time remain similar from m = 4 to 16: the dynamics of λ change between 1915 and 1935, separating two regimes, one from 1850 to 1915 and the other from 1935 to 2005, in which λ retains a similar structure. A sharp peak occurs at the time of the ISSN minimum between cycles 23 and 24, possibly a precursor of unusual cycle 24 and maybe a new regime change; λ is significantly smaller during the ascending and descending phases of solar cycles. Differences in values of the irregularity index observed for different cycles reflect differences in correlations in sunspot series at a scale much less than the 4 year sliding window used in computing them; the lifetime of sunspots provides a source of correlation at that time scale. The burst of short-term irregularity evidenced by the strong λ peak at the minimum of cycles 23 and 24 would reflect a decrease in correlation at the time scale of several days rather than a change in the shape of the cycle.

  13. Mff-Analysis of Zurich Sunspot Numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nefedyev, Yuri; Panischev, Oleg; Demin, Sergey

    2016-07-01

    In this paper we consider the dynamic and stochastic properties of the solar activity by using the Memory Function Formalism (MFF) to analyze the Zurich sunspot numbers. This approach allows to study the statistical memory effects and dynamic alteration in the considered dynamics. The phase portraits are the simple graphical method to analyze the dynamic properties of solar activity. Power spectra of the memory functions allow to reveal the frequency characteristics of the solar activity in different relaxation levels. The non-Markovian parameter describes the memory effects in considered dynamics. Work was supported by grants RFBR 15-02-01638-a and 16-02-00496-a.

  14. Flows in Sunspot Plumes Detected with SOHO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brynildsen, N.; Maltby, P.; Brekke, P.; Fredvik, T.; Haugan, S. V. H.; Kjeldseth-Moe, O.; Wikstol, O.

    1998-09-01

    In the Letter, ``Flows in Sunspot Plumes Detected with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory'' by N. Brynildsen, P. Maltby, P. Brekke, T. Fredvik, S. V. H. Haugan, O. Kjeldseth-Moe, and Ø. Wikstøl (ApJ, 502, L85 [1998]), the following correction should be made: In the last line on page L86, which reads ``peak line intensity I>=5 are located (1) above the umbra or, '' an ``Ī'' should be inserted so that the revised line reads ``peak line intensity I>=5Ī are located (1) above the umbra or.''

  15. Solar grand and super-grand cycles derived with PCA from the solar background magnetic field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkova, Valentina; Shepherd, Simon; Zharkov, Sergei; Popova, Elena

    2016-04-01

    We present principal components analysis (PCA) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21-24. These PCs reveal two main magnetic waves with close frequencies (covering 40% of data variance) travelling from the opposite hemispheres with an increasing phase shift. Extrapolation of these PCs through their summary curve backward for 2000 years reveals a number of ~350-year grand cycles and about 2000 super-grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past. The summary curve calculated forward for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 25-27 when the two magnetic field waves have a phase shift of 11 years. We explore a role of other independent components derived with PCA and their expected effects on the resulting summary curve, or solar activity curve. We suggest that these grand and super-grand cycles can be produced by two dynamo waves generated in different layers with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects that is discussed in the work by Popova et al (2016) presented here. This approach opens a new era in investigation and prediction of solar activity on long-term timescales.

  16. On the level of skill in predicting maximum sunspot number - A comparative study of single variate and bivariate precursor techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1990-01-01

    The level of skill in predicting the size of the sunspot cycle is investigated for the two types of precursor techniques, single variate and bivariate fits, both applied to cycle 22. The present level of growth in solar activity is compared to the mean level of growth (cycles 10-21) and to the predictions based on the precursor techniques. It is shown that, for cycle 22, both single variate methods (based on geomagnetic data) and bivariate methods suggest a maximum amplitude smaller than that observed for cycle 19, and possibly for cycle 21. Compared to the mean cycle, cycle 22 is presently behaving as if it were a +2.6 sigma cycle (maximum amplitude of about 225), which means that either it will be the first cycle not to be reliably predicted by the combined precursor techniques or its deviation relative to the mean cycle will substantially decrease over the next 18 months.

  17. North-south excess of hemispheric sunspot numbers and cosmic ray asymmetric solar modulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahluwalia, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Timeline of solar activity is reviewed for 1945-2013 with data for yearly north-south excess (NSE) of hemispheric sunspot numbers (SSNs) for six cycles (18-23) and rising phase of cycle 24. There are more sunspots in north hemisphere for 1950-1970 (cycles 18-20) and excess in south hemisphere for 1980-2010 (cycles 21-23). To the best of our knowledge, the physical cause(es) for NSE and change of its sign are not known, highlighting the fact that we do not yet understand how the solar Dynamo works. Others have analyzed NSE data for shorter periods. We study the relationship between NSE and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) asymmetric solar modulation for the space age with high latitude neutron monitor data located in USA and Europe; space age began in October 1963 with in situ measurements of the solar wind parameters at 1 AU. We infer an asymmetric GCR particle density gradient normal to the ecliptic plane exists for 1963-2013 and undergoes significant temporal variations unrelated to Schwabe or Hale cycle. Furthermore, it has no physical relationship with NSE for the period of our analysis, contrary to the result of a prior study for a shorter period.

  18. Sunspot umbral oscillations in Mg II k

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gurman, Joseph B.

    1987-01-01

    Time series observations of the profile of the Mg II k line 2795.52 A have been obtained in five sunspots with the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter on the Solar Maximum Mission. The three sunspots with umbrae larger than the 3 x 3 arcsec pixel size show significant oscillations in integrated line intensity and line centroid, with frequencies in the range 5.29-7.55 mHz (periods of 132-190 s). The frequencies of significant peaks in average umbral power spectra agree well with the frequencies of the three lowest-frequency transmission peaks predicted by a model of resonant transmission of acoustic waves. If radiative delays are unimportant, and the line centroid can be interpreted straightforwardly as a Doppler shift, the measured velocity-intensity phase differences indicate the superposition of upward-propagating and downward-propagating waves in the umbral chromosphere; this is further evidence for the resonant transmission model. A single, quiet sun time series of k core profiles yields power spectra and a phase difference consistent with the existence of a chromospheric p-mode.

  19. Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahluwalia, H. S.

    2014-10-01

    The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006-2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.

  20. Comparison of New and Old Sunspot Number Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cliver, Edward W.; Clette, Frédéric; Lefévre, Laure; Svalgaard, Leif

    2016-05-01

    As a result of the Sunspot Number Workshops, five new sunspot series have recently been proposed: a revision of the original Wolf or international sunspot number (Lockwood et al., 2014), a backbone-based group sunspot number (Svalgaard and Schatten, 2016), a revised group number series that employs active day fractions (Usoskin et al., 2016), a provisional group sunspot number series (Cliver and Ling, 2016) that removes flaws in the normalization scheme for the original group sunspot number (Hoyt and Schatten,1998), and a revised Wolf or international number (termed SN) published on the SILSO website as a replacement for the original Wolf number (Clette and Lefèvre, 2016; thttp://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles). Despite quite different construction methods, the five new series agree reasonably well after about 1900. From 1750 to ~1875, however, the Lockwood et al. and Usoskin et al. time series are lower than the other three series. Analysis of the Hoyt and Schatten normalization factors used to scale secondary observers to their Royal Greenwich Observatory primary observer reveals a significant inhomogeneity spanning the divergence in ~1885 of the group number from the original Wolf number. In general, a correction factor time series, obtained by dividing an annual group count series by the corresponding yearly averages of raw group counts for all observers, can be used to assess the reliability of new sunspot number reconstructions.

  1. One Possible Reason for Double-Peaked Maxima in Solar Cycles: Is a Second Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Expected?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, A.; Ozguc, A.

    2014-04-01

    We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot-group data collected since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, and H classes according to the Zurich classification], the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated how many small and large sunspot groups occurred, their sunspot numbers [SSN], and the Zurich numbers [ Rz] from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We found that the temporal variations for these three different separations behave similarly. We also analyzed the general shape of solar cycles from Cycle 1 to 23 by using monthly International Sunspot Number [ISSN] data and found that the durations of maxima were about 2.9 years. Finally, we used the ascending time and SSN relationship and found that the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to occur later than 2011. Thus, we conclude that i) one possible reason for a double maximum in solar cycles is the different behavior of large and small sunspot groups, and ii) a double maximum is expected for Solar Cycle 24.

  2. Duration, Distance, and Speed Judgments of Two Moving Objects by 4- to 11-Year-Olds.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Matsuda, Fumiko

    1996-01-01

    Four- to 11-year-olds made duration, distance, and speed judgments on Piagetian tasks where cars ran on parallel tracks. Among younger children, duration and distance judgments had approximately the same difficulty. Among older children, distance judgments were easier than duration judgments, and symmetry of effects of temporal and spatial…

  3. Persistence of Challenging Behaviours in Adults with Intellectual Disability over a Period of 11 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Totsika, V.; Toogood, S.; Hastings, R. P.; Lewis, S.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Challenging behaviours in people with an intellectual disability (ID) often develop early and tend to persist throughout life. This study presents data on the chronicity of challenging behaviours in adults with ID over a period of 11 years, and explores the characteristics of people with persistent serious behaviour problems. Method:…

  4. Race and Ethnicity: An 11-Year Content Analysis of "Counseling and Values"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, Caroline A.; Bowen, Nikol V.; Butler, J. Yasmine; Shavers, Marjorie C.

    2013-01-01

    Using the Dimensions of Personal Identity Model proposed by Arredondo and Glauner (as cited in Arredondo et al., 1996), the authors reviewed the last 11 years of the Association for Spiritual, Ethical, and Religious Values in Counseling's journal, "Counseling and Values", specifically regarding the "A" dimensions of race and ethnicity. Twenty-five…

  5. Korean 4- to 11-Year-Old Student Conceptions of Heat and Temperature

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paik, Seoung-Hey; Cho, Boo-Kyung; Go, Young-Mi

    2007-01-01

    The aim of the present study is to shed light on the conceptions that young students have of heat and temperature, concepts that are both important in school science curricula and closely related to daily life. The subjects of the study were students from a rural district in South Korea and they ranged in age from 4 to 11 years. Interviews were…

  6. Easy Growth Experiment on Peas Stimulates Interest in Biology for 10-11 Year Old Pupils

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McEwen, Birgitta

    2007-01-01

    How do we support the enthusiasm children show for biology in school? Unfortunately, lack of exciting practical work and boring biology lessons seem to make science less popular. As a senior lecturer in plant physiology at Karlstad University I have simplified experiments intended for students at university and then tested them on 10-11 year old…

  7. Basic Facts about Low-Income Children: Children 6 through 11 Years, 2013. Fact Sheet

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jiang, Yang; Ekono, Mercedes; Skinner, Curtis

    2015-01-01

    Children under 18 years represent 23 percent of the population, but they comprise 33 percent of all people in poverty. Among all children, 44 percent live in low-income families and approximately one in every five (22 percent) live in poor families. Similarly, among children in middle childhood (age 6 through 11 years), 45 percent live in…

  8. [A case of porphyria cutanea tarda in an 11-year-old boy].

    PubMed

    Pindycka-Piaszczyńska, M; Danik, E; Bendkowski, W

    1995-06-01

    A rare case of porphyria cutanea tarda (PCT) in an 11-year-old boy is presented. The clinical manifestations were typical. Results of porphyrin analyses of urine and serum with a fluorescence emission maximum around 398 nm revealed a pattern consistent with PCT. PMID:8692611

  9. Meaning-Making with Colour in Multimodal Texts: An 11-Year-Old Student's Purposeful "Doing"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pantaleo, Sylvia

    2012-01-01

    Colour, a visual element of art and design, is a semiotic mode that is used strategically by sign-makers to communicate meaning. Understanding the meaning-making potential of colour can enhance students' understanding, appreciation, interpretation and composition of multimodal texts. This article features a case study of Anya, an 11-year-old…

  10. Photometric measurements of solar irradiance variations due to sunspots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chapman, G. A.; Herzog, A. D.; Laico, D. E.; Lawrence, J. K.; Templer, M. S.

    1989-01-01

    A photometric telescope constructed to obtain photometric sunspot areas and deficits on a daily basis is described. Data from this Cartesian full disk telescope (CFDT) are analyzed with attention given to the period between June 4 and June 17, 1985 because of the availability of overlapping sunspot area and irradiance deficit data from high-resolution digital spectroheliograms made with the San Fernando Observatory 28 cm vacuum solar telescope and spectroheliograph. The CFDT sunspot deficits suggest a substantial irradiance contribution from faculae and active region plage.

  11. Systematic Regularity of Hemispheric Sunspot Areas Over the Past 140 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, L. H.; Xiang, Y. Y.; Qu, Z. N.; An, J. M.

    2016-03-01

    Solar magnetic activity varies with time in the two hemispheres in different ways. The hemispheric interconnection of solar activity phenomena provides an important clue to understanding the dynamical behavior of solar dynamo actions. In this paper, several analysis approaches are proposed to analyze the systematic regularity of hemispheric asynchronism and amplitude asymmetry of long-term sunspot areas during solar cycles 9-24. It is found that, (1) both the hemispheric asynchronism and the amplitude asymmetry of sunspot areas are prevalent behaviors and are not anomalous, but the hemispheric asynchronism exhibits a much more regular behavior than the amplitude asymmetry; (2) the phase-leading hemisphere returns back to the identical hemisphere every 8 solar cycles, and the secular periodic pattern of hemispheric phase differences follows 3 (south leading) + 5 (north leading) solar cycles, which probably corresponds to the Gleissberg cycle; and (3) the pronounced periodicities of (absolute and normalized) asymmetry indices and lines of synchronization (LOSs) are not identical: the significant periodic oscillations are 80.65 ± 6.31, 20.91 ± 0.40, and 13.45 ± 0.16 years for the LOS values, and 51.34 ± 2.48, 8.83/8.69 ± 0.07, and 3.77 ± 0.02 years for the (absolute and normalized) asymmetry indices. The analysis results improve our knowledge on the hemispheric interrelation of solar magnetic activity and may provide valuable constraints for solar dynamo models.

  12. Stochastic Description of the High-frequency Content of Daily Sunspots and Evidence for Regime Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapoval, A.; Le Mouël, J.-L.; Shnirman, M.; Courtillot, V.

    2015-01-01

    The irregularity index λ is applied to the high-frequency content of daily sunspot numbers ISSN. This λ is a modification of the standard maximal Lyapunov exponent. It is computed here as a function of embedding dimension m, within four-year time windows centered at the maxima of Schwabe cycles. The λ(m) curves form separate clusters (pre-1923 and post-1933). This supports a regime transition and narrows its occurrence to cycle 16, preceding the growth of activity leading to the Modern Maximum. The two regimes are reproduced by a simple autoregressive process AR(1), with the mean of Poisson noise undergoing 11 yr modulation. The autocorrelation a of the process (linked to sunspot lifetime) is a ≈ 0.8 for 1850-1923 and ≈0.95 for 1933-2013. The AR(1) model suggests that groups of spots appear with a Poisson rate and disappear at a constant rate. We further applied the irregularity index to the daily sunspot group number series for the northern and southern hemispheres, provided by the Greenwich Royal Observatory (RGO), in order to study a possible desynchronization. Correlations between the north and south λ(m) curves vary quite strongly with time and indeed show desynchronization. This may reflect a slow change in the dimension of an underlying dynamical system. The ISSN and RGO series of group numbers do not imply an identical mechanism, but both uncover a regime change at a similar time. Computation of the irregularity index near the maximum of cycle 24 will help in checking whether yet another regime change is under way.

  13. STOCHASTIC DESCRIPTION OF THE HIGH-FREQUENCY CONTENT OF DAILY SUNSPOTS AND EVIDENCE FOR REGIME CHANGES

    SciTech Connect

    Shapoval, A.; Le Mouël, J.-L.; Courtillot, V.; Shnirman, M.

    2015-01-20

    The irregularity index λ is applied to the high-frequency content of daily sunspot numbers ISSN. This λ is a modification of the standard maximal Lyapunov exponent. It is computed here as a function of embedding dimension m, within four-year time windows centered at the maxima of Schwabe cycles. The λ(m) curves form separate clusters (pre-1923 and post-1933). This supports a regime transition and narrows its occurrence to cycle 16, preceding the growth of activity leading to the Modern Maximum. The two regimes are reproduced by a simple autoregressive process AR(1), with the mean of Poisson noise undergoing 11 yr modulation. The autocorrelation a of the process (linked to sunspot lifetime) is a ≈ 0.8 for 1850-1923 and ≈0.95 for 1933-2013. The AR(1) model suggests that groups of spots appear with a Poisson rate and disappear at a constant rate. We further applied the irregularity index to the daily sunspot group number series for the northern and southern hemispheres, provided by the Greenwich Royal Observatory (RGO), in order to study a possible desynchronization. Correlations between the north and south λ(m) curves vary quite strongly with time and indeed show desynchronization. This may reflect a slow change in the dimension of an underlying dynamical system. The ISSN and RGO series of group numbers do not imply an identical mechanism, but both uncover a regime change at a similar time. Computation of the irregularity index near the maximum of cycle 24 will help in checking whether yet another regime change is under way.

  14. A Revised Collection of Sunspot Group Numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaquero, J. M.; Svalgaard, L.; Carrasco, V. M. S.; Clette, F.; Lefèvre, L.; Gallego, M. C.; Arlt, R.; Aparicio, A. J. P.; Richard, J.-G.; Howe, R.

    2016-09-01

    We describe a revised collection of the number of sunspot groups from 1610 to the present. This new collection is based on the work of Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998). The main changes are the elimination of a considerable number of observations during the Maunder Minimum (hereafter, MM) and the inclusion of several long series of observations. Numerous minor changes are also described. Moreover, we have calculated the active-day percentage during the MM from this new collection as a reliable index of the solar activity. Thus, the level of solar activity obtained in this work is greater than the level obtained using the original Hoyt and Schatten data, although it remains compatible with a grand minimum of solar activity. The new collection is available in digital format.

  15. SUPERSONIC DOWNFLOWS IN A SUNSPOT LIGHT BRIDGE

    SciTech Connect

    Louis, Rohan E.; Mathew, Shibu K.; Venkatakrishnan, P.; Bellot Rubio, Luis R.

    2009-10-10

    We report the discovery of supersonic downflows in a sunspot light bridge using measurements taken with the spectropolarimeter onboard the Hinode satellite. The downflows occur in small patches close to regions where the vector magnetic field changes orientation rapidly, and are associated with anomalous circular polarization profiles. An inversion of the observed Stokes spectra reveals velocities of up to 10 km s{sup -1}, making them the strongest photospheric flows ever measured in light bridges. Some (but not all) of the downflowing patches are cospatial and cotemporal with brightness enhancements in chromospheric Ca II H filtergrams. We suggest that these flows are due to magnetic reconnection in the upper photosphere/lower chromosphere, although other mechanisms cannot be ruled out.

  16. Amplitudes of MHD Waves in Sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norton, Aimee Ann; Cally, Paul; Baldner, Charles; Kleint, Lucia; Tarbell, Theodore D.; De Pontieu, Bart; Scherrer, Philip H.; Rajaguru, Paul

    2016-05-01

    The conversion of p-modes into MHD waves by strong magnetic fields occurs mainly in the sub-photospheric layers. The photospheric signatures of MHD waves are weak due to low amplitudes at the beta=1 equipartion level where mode-conversion occurs. We report on small amplitude oscillations observed in the photosphere with Hinode SOT/SP in which we analyze time series for sunspots ARs 12186 (11.10.2014) and 12434 (17.10.2015). No significant magnetic field oscillations are recovered in the umbra or penumbra in the ME inversion. However, periodicities in the inclination angle are found at the umbral/penumbral boundary with 5 minute periods. Upward propagating waves are indicated in the intensity signals correlated between HMI and AIA at different heights. We compare SP results with the oscillations observed in HMI data. Simultaneous IRIS data shows transition region brightening above the umbral core.

  17. Tilt angle of bipolar sunspot groups and solar dynamo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokoloff, Dmitry; Illarionov, Egor; Pipin, Valery; Tlatov, Andrey

    We obtain the latitude-time distribution of the averaged tilt angle of solar bipoles. For large bipoles, which are mainly bipolar sunspot groups, the spatially averaged tilt angle is positive in the Northern solar hemisphere and negative in the Southern, with modest variations during course of the solar cycle. We consider the averaged tilt angle to be a tracer for a crucial element of the solar dynamo, i.e. the regeneration rate of poloidal large-scale magnetic field from toroidal. The value of the tilt obtained crudely corresponds to a regeneration factor corresponding to about 10% of r.m.s. velocity of solar convection. These results develop findings of Kosovichev and Stenflo (2012) concerning Joy's law, and agree with the usual expectations of solar dynamo theory. Quite surprisingly, we find a pronounced deviation from these properties for smaller bipoles, which are mainly solar ephemeral regions. They possess tilt angles of approximately the same absolute value, but of opposite sign compared to that of the large bipoles. Of course, the tilt data for small bipoles are less well determined than those for large bipoles; however they remain robust under various modifications of the data processing.

  18. Sunspot bright rings and the thermal diffusivity of solar convection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duvall, T., Jr.; Fowler, L. A.; Foukal, P.

    1983-01-01

    Raster-scan observations of 10 sunspots, made in 1980 and 1981 with the 512-channel diode array and vacuum telescope at the Kitt Peak National Observatory, are reported. Data from several 10-min scans of 0.25-A passbands of clean continuum were summed to give an rms noise level of 0.25 percent, corrected by applying a limb-darkening curve, and analyzed to determine the average intensity for each of eight segments of a series of concentric rings around each sunspot. Faculae and pores were identified and discarded in constructing radial intensity profiles. Marginally significant bright symmetric rings (peak amplitude 0.1-0.3 percent) not attributable to residual facular signal or instrumental effects were observed around 6 of 10 sunspots. No evidence of more intense bright rings was found. These findings are discussed in terms of thermal-diffusion models proposed to explain the fate of the radiative flux blocked by sunspots.

  19. Lithium abundances in sunspots from observations made in 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baranovskii, E. A.; Tarashchuk, V. P.

    2016-08-01

    Spectra of sunspots in the regions of the Li I 6708 Å line and certain Fe I and Ca I lines are presented. The observations wee carried out in August 2014 using a CCD array mounted at the BST-2 telescope of the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory. Sunspot models based on the observed Fe I and Ca I line profiles have been computed, and used together with the observed Li I 6708 Å profiles to determine the lithium abundances. The mean lithium abundance for the sunspots observed on August 26, 2014 is log A(Li) = 1.2 (on a scale for which log A(H) = 12.0). Sunspot spectra obtained on October 8, 2011 were also analyzed, yielding log A(Li) = 1.02.

  20. Prediction of Wolf Sunspot Numbers for the Next Millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rigozo, Nivaor; Rigozo, Nivaor; Evangelista, Heitor; Nordemann, Daniel J. R.; Echer, Ezequiel; Echer, Mariza P. S.

    A prediction of sunspot numbers for the next 1000 years was obtained using a sum of sine waves derived from spectral analysis of the reconstruction time series of sunspot number Rz for the period 1000-2006. The time series was decomposed in frequency levels using the wavelet transform, and an iterative regression model (ARIST) was used to identify the amplitude and phase of the main periodicities. The 1000-year prediction sunspot number reproduces almost minimums and maximum in solar activity in future. The next minimum of solar activity is predicted to occur around 2056-2152 (equivalent the Dalton Minimum) and 2423-2530 (equivalent the Maunder Minimum). The next maximum of solar activity is predicted to initial in 2742. The average sunspot number activity in each anomalous period was used in linear equations to obtain estimates of the solar radio flux F10.7, solar wind velocity, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

  1. Solar proton events during solar cycles 19, 20, and 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feynman, J.; Armstrong, T. P.; Dao-Gibner, L.; Silverman, S.

    1990-01-01

    Earlier studies based on a single solar cycle had resulted in a sharp division of events into 'ordinary' and 'anomalously large' events. Two such entirely separate distributions imply two entirely separate acceleration mechanisms, one common and the other very rare. The sharp division is neither required nor justified by this larger sample. Instead the event intensity forms a smooth distribution for intensities up to the largest observed implying that any second acceleration mechanism cannot be rare. Also, a clear bimodal variation of annual integrated flux with solar cycle phase but no statistically significant tendency for the large events to avoid sunspot maximum is found. There is almost no relation between the maximum sunspot number in a solar cycle and the solar cycle integrated flux. It is also found that for annual sunspot numbers greater than 35 there is no relation whatsoever between the annual sunspot numbers and annual integrated flux.

  2. Drag and energy accommodation coefficients during sunspot maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pardini, Carmen; Anselmo, Luciano; Moe, Kenneth; Moe, Mildred M.

    over 30-day intervals from October 1999 to December 2002, was found to be 2.16. When the measurement was adjusted upward by 12 % to correct for the bias in the density model, the resulting physical drag coefficient became 2.42. Comparison of this result with the calculated dependence of the drag coefficient of SNOE on the energy accommodation coefficient has revealed agreement for α = 0.97. This high an accommodation coefficient implies that a considerable portion of the satellite surface had oxygen atoms adsorbed on it. This is physically reasonable because during sunspot maximum the increased solar UV radiation dissociates more molecular oxygen and the UV heating causes the atmosphere to expand to higher altitudes. The analysis was carried out for several satellites, having perigee altitudes between 300 and 800 km, during the last solar cycle maximum. This sample included a subset of Surrey satellites, for which the main characteristics (i.e. size, shape, mass, attitude, etc.) were known, and some spherical, or nearly spherical, objects.

  3. Automatic Recognition of Sunspots in HSOS Full-Disk Solar Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Cui; Lin, GangHua; Deng, YuanYong; Yang, Xiao

    2016-05-01

    A procedure is introduced to recognise sunspots automatically in solar full-disk photosphere images obtained from Huairou Solar Observing Station, National Astronomical Observatories of China. The images are first pre-processed through Gaussian algorithm. Sunspots are then recognised by the morphological Bot-hat operation and Otsu threshold. Wrong selection of sunspots is eliminated by a criterion of sunspot properties. Besides, in order to calculate the sunspots areas and the solar centre, the solar limb is extracted by a procedure using morphological closing and erosion operations and setting an adaptive threshold. Results of sunspot recognition reveal that the number of the sunspots detected by our procedure has a quite good agreement with the manual method. The sunspot recognition rate is 95% and error rate is 1.2%. The sunspot areas calculated by our method have high correlation (95%) with the area data from the United States Air Force/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA).

  4. Volcanism, Cold Temperature, and Paucity of Sunspot Observing Days (1818-1858): A Connection?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1998-08-01

    During the interval of 1818-1858, several curious decreases in the number of sunspot observing days per year are noted in the observing record of Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, the discoverer of the sunspot cycle, and in the reconstructed record of Rudolf Wolf, the founder of the now familiar relative sunspot number. These decreases appear to be nonrandom in nature and often extended for 13 yr (or more). Comparison of these decreases with equivalent annual mean temperature (both annual means and 4-yr moving averages). as recorded at Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), indicates that the temperature during the years of decreased number of observing days trended downward near the start of' each decrease and upward (suggesting some sort of recovery) just before the end of each decrease. The drop in equivalent annual mean temperature associated with each decrease, as determined from the moving averages, measured about 0.1-0.7 C. The decreases in number of observing days are found to be closely related to the occurrences of large, cataclysmic volcanic eruptions in the tropics or northern hemisphere. In particular, the interval of increasing number of observing days at the beginning of the record (i.e., 1818-1819) may be related to the improving atmospheric conditions in Europe following the 1815 eruption of Tambora (Indonesia; 8 deg. S), which previously, has been linked to "the year without a summer" (in 1816) and which is the strongest eruption in recent history, while the decreases associated with the years of 1824, 1837, and 1847 may, be linked, respectively, to the large, catacivsmic volcanic eruptions of Galunggung (Indonesia; 7 deg. S) in 1822, Cosiguina (Nicaragua) in 1835, and, perhaps, Hekla (Iceland; 64 deg. N) in 1845. Surprisingly, the number of observing days per year, as recorded specifically b), SchAabe (from Dessau, Germany), is found to be linearly correlated against the yearly mean temperature at Armagh Observatory (r = 0.5 at the 2 percent level of

  5. Volcanism, Cold Temperature, and Paucity of Sunspot Observing Days (1818-1858): A Connection?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    During the interval of 1818-1858, several curious decreases in the number of sunspot observing days per year are noted in the observing record of Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, the discoverer of the sunspot cycle, and in the reconstructed record of Rudolf Wolf, the founder of the now familiar relative sunspot number. These decreases appear to be nonrandom in nature and often extended for 13 yr (or more). Comparison of these decreases with equivalent annual mean temperature (both annual means and 4-yr moving averages). as recorded at Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), indicates that the temperature during the years of decreased number of observing days trended downward near the start of' each decrease and upward (suggesting some sort of recovery) just before the end of each decrease. The drop in equivalent annual mean temperature associated with each decrease, as determined from the moving averages, measured about 0.1-0.7 C. The decreases in number of observing days are found to be closely related to the occurrences of large, cataclysmic volcanic eruptions in the tropics or northern hemisphere. In particular, the interval of increasing number of observing days at the beginning of the record (i.e., 1818-1819) may be related to the improving atmospheric conditions in Europe following the 1815 eruption of Tambora (Indonesia; 8 deg. S), which previously, has been linked to "the year without a summer" (in 1816) and which is the strongest eruption in recent history, while the decreases associated with the years of 1824, 1837, and 1847 may, be linked, respectively, to the large, catacivsmic volcanic eruptions of Galunggung (Indonesia; 7 deg. S) in 1822, Cosiguina (Nicaragua) in 1835, and, perhaps, Hekla (Iceland; 64 deg. N) in 1845. Surprisingly, the number of observing days per year, as recorded specifically b), SchAabe (from Dessau, Germany), is found to be linearly correlated against the yearly mean temperature at Armagh Observatory (r = 0.5 at the 2 percent level of

  6. Does age at first treatment episode make a difference in outcomes over 11 years?

    PubMed

    Chi, Felicia W; Weisner, Constance; Grella, Christine E; Hser, Yih-Ing; Moore, Charles; Mertens, Jennifer

    2014-04-01

    This study examines the associations between age at first substance use treatment entry and trajectory of outcomes over 11 years. We found significant differences in individual and treatment characteristics between adult intakes first treated during young adulthood (25 years or younger) and those first treated at an older age. Compared to their first treated older age counterparts matched on demographics and dependence type, those who entered first treatment during young adulthood had on average an earlier onset for substance use but a shorter duration between first substance use and first treatment entry; they also had worse alcohol and other drug outcomes 11 years post treatment entry. While subsequent substance use treatment and 12-step meeting attendance are important for both age groups in maintaining positive outcomes, relationships varied by age group. Findings underline the importance of different continuing care management strategies for those entering first treatment at different developmental stages. PMID:24462221

  7. The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Webb, David F.; Howard, Russell A.

    1994-01-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

  8. MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY OF A NAKED SUNSPOT: IS IT REALLY NAKED?

    SciTech Connect

    Sainz Dalda, A.; Vargas Dominguez, S.; Tarbell, T. D.

    2012-02-10

    The high spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution achieved by Hinode instruments gives much better understanding of the behavior of some elusive solar features, such as pores and naked sunspots. Their fast evolution and, in some cases, their small sizes have made their study difficult. The moving magnetic features (MMFs) have been studied during the last 40 years. They have been always associated with sunspots, especially with the penumbra. However, a recent observation of a naked sunspot (one with no penumbra) has shown MMF activity. The authors of this reported observation expressed their reservations about the explanation given to the bipolar MMF activity as an extension of the penumbral filaments into the moat. How can this type of MMF exist when a penumbra does not? In this Letter, we study the full magnetic and (horizontal) velocity topology of the same naked sunspot, showing how the existence of a magnetic field topology similar to that observed in sunspots can explain these MMFs, even when the intensity map of the naked sunspot does not show a penumbra.

  9. INTERFERENCE FRINGES OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES AROUND SUNSPOTS

    SciTech Connect

    Chou, Dean-Yi; Zhao Hui; Yang, Ming-Hsu; Liang, Zhi-Chao

    2012-10-20

    Solar acoustic waves are scattered by a sunspot due to the interaction between the acoustic waves and the sunspot. The sunspot, excited by the incident wave, generates the scattered wave. The scattered wave is added to the incident wave to form the total wave around the sunspot. The interference fringes between the scattered wave and the incident wave are visible in the intensity of the total wave because the coherent time of the incident wave is of the order of a wave period. The strength of the interference fringes anti-correlates with the width of temporal spectra of the incident wave. The separation between neighboring fringes increases with the incident wavelength and the sunspot size. The strength of the fringes increases with the radial order n of the incident wave from n = 0 to n = 2, and then decreases from n = 2 to n = 5. The interference fringes play a role analogous to holograms in optics. This study suggests the feasibility of using the interference fringes to reconstruct the scattered wavefields of the sunspot, although the quality of the reconstructed wavefields is sensitive to the noise and errors in the interference fringes.

  10. Numerical models of sunspot formation and fine structure.

    PubMed

    Rempel, Matthias

    2012-07-13

    Sunspots are central to our understanding of solar (and stellar) magnetism in many respects. On the large scale, they link the magnetic field observable in the photosphere to the dynamo processes operating in the solar interior. Properly interpreting the constraints that sunspots impose on the dynamo process requires a detailed understanding of the processes involved in their formation, dynamical evolution and decay. On the small scale, they give an insight into how convective energy transport interacts with the magnetic field over a wide range of field strengths and inclination angles, leading to sunspot fine structure observed in the form of umbral dots and penumbral filaments. Over the past decade, substantial progress has been made on both observational and theoretical sides. Advanced ground- and space-based observations have resolved, for the first time, the details of umbral dots and penumbral filaments and discovered similarities in their substructures. Numerical models have advanced to the degree that simulations of entire sunspots with sufficient resolution to resolve sunspot fine structure are feasible. A combination of improved helioseismic inversion techniques with seismic forward modelling provides new views on the subsurface structure of sunspots. In this review, we summarize recent progress, with particular focus on numerical modelling. PMID:22665895

  11. Pemphigus foliaceus in an 11-year-old mexican girl with response to oral dapsone.

    PubMed

    García-Meléndez, Martha Elena; Eichelmann, Kristian; Salas-Alanís, Julio César; Gomez-Flores, Minerva; Ocampo-Candiani, Jorge

    2013-01-01

    Pemphigus foliaceus (PF) is rarely described in the pediatric population with less than 40 cases reported in the literature. We report the case of an 11-year-old girl who was diagnosed with PF after 6 months of starting with symptoms and who responded well to therapy with oral dapsone. Although therapeutic guidelines for PF in children are lacking, oral corticosteroids in combination with dapsone have proven to be effective as first-line treatment in this setting.

  12. Pemphigus Foliaceus in an 11-Year-Old Mexican Girl with Response to Oral Dapsone

    PubMed Central

    García-Meléndez, Martha Elena; Eichelmann, Kristian; Salas-Alanís, Julio César; Gomez-Flores, Minerva; Ocampo-Candiani, Jorge

    2013-01-01

    Pemphigus foliaceus (PF) is rarely described in the pediatric population with less than 40 cases reported in the literature. We report the case of an 11-year-old girl who was diagnosed with PF after 6 months of starting with symptoms and who responded well to therapy with oral dapsone. Although therapeutic guidelines for PF in children are lacking, oral corticosteroids in combination with dapsone have proven to be effective as first-line treatment in this setting. PMID:24416609

  13. Normalized endothelial function but sustained cardiovascular risk profile 11 years following a pregnancy complicated by preeclampsia.

    PubMed

    Östlund, Eva; Al-Nashi, Maha; Hamad, Rangeen Rafik; Larsson, Anders; Eriksson, Maria; Bremme, Katarina; Kahan, Thomas

    2013-12-01

    Women with a history of preeclampsia are at increased risk of future cardiovascular disease. Preeclampsia is associated with elevated blood pressure, inflammation and endothelial dysfunction, and these findings remain 1 year after delivery. Whether these abnormalities persist long after delivery, and whether they may contribute to future cardiovascular disease, is not well studied. We studied 15 women with a history of preeclampsia and 16 matched controls with an uncomplicated pregnancy 11 years following the index pregnancy; all had also been previously examined at 1 year. We assessed arterial stiffness (pulse wave analysis), 24 h ambulatory blood pressure and endothelial function (forearm flow-mediated dilatation and pulse wave analysis following β receptor agonist provocation), and determined markers of glucose and lipid metabolism, inflammation and vascular function. The preeclampsia group had higher blood pressures and reduced night/day blood pressure ratios, increased body mass index and reduced glucose tolerance, and increased levels of tissue necrosis factor receptor 1 and intracellular adhesion molecule-1, suggesting inflammatory and vascular activation. However, the endothelial impairment observed in the preeclampsia group at 1 year was normalized at 11 years, whereas the control group remained unchanged during follow-up. Our findings of higher blood pressures, impaired glucose tolerance and normalization of endothelial function 11 years after preeclampsia suggest cardiovascular risk factors present already before pregnancy to be more important than permanent endothelial damage for the increased risk of future cardiovascular complications in women with a history of preeclampsia.

  14. The solar cycle - A central-source wave theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bracewell, R. N.

    1989-01-01

    Studies stimulated by the interpretation of the Elatina formation in South Australia as a fossil record of solar activity have led to discoveries of previously unnoticed features of the sunspot cycle record and to a theory of origin of the sunspot cycle that postulates a solar core in torsional motion and a magnetomechanical wave that couples to the photosphere. The considerations supporting the solar interpretation of the Elatina formation are gathered together.

  15. Spots, activity cycles, and differential rotation on cool stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alekseev, I. Yu.

    2005-01-01

    The first results are reported from a search for activity cycles in stars similar to the sun based on modelling their spotting with an algorithm developed at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory. Of the more than thirty program stars, 10 manifested a cyclical variation in their central latitudes and total starspot area. The observed cycles have durations of 4-15 years, i.e., analogous to the 11 year Schwabe sunspot cycle. Most of the stars have a rough analog of the solar butterfly pattern, with a reduction in the average latitude of the spots as their area increases. A flip-flop effect during the epoch of the maximum average latitude is noted in a number of these objects (e.g., the analog LQ Hya of the young sun or the RS CVn-type variable V711 Tau), as well as a reduction in the photometric rotation period of a star as the spots drift toward the equator, an analog of the differential rotation effect in the sun. Unlike in the sun, the observed spot formation cycles do not correlate uniquely with other indicators of activity— chromospheric emission in the CaII HK lines (Be Cet, EK Dra, Dx Leo), H line emission (LQ Hya, VY Ari, EV Lac), or cyclical flare activity (EV Lac). In V833 Tau, BY Dra, EK Dra, and VY Ari short Schwabe cycles coexist with long cycles that are analogous to the Gleissberg solar cycle, in which the spotted area can approach half the entire area of the star.

  16. Interactions between nested sunspots. 1: The formation and breakup of a delta-type sunspot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaizauskas, V.; Harvey, K. L.; Proulx, M.

    1994-02-01

    We investigate a nest of sunspots in which three ordinary bipolar pairs of sunspots are aligned collinearly. The usual spreading action of the growing regions brings two spots of leading polarity together (p-p collision) and forces the leading and trailing spots of the two interior regions to overlap into a single penumbra (p-f collision), thus forming a delta-spot. We examine digitally processed images from the Ottawa River Solar Observatory of two related events inside the delta-spot 5 days after the p-f collision begins: the violent disruption of the f-umbra, and the formation in less than a day of an hydrogen-alpha filament. The evolutionary changes in shape, area, relative motions, and brightness that we measure for each spot in the elongated nest are more compatible with Parker's (1979a) hypothesis of a sunspot as a cluster of flux tubes held together by downdrafts than with the notion of a sunspot as a monolithic plug of magnetic flux. From chromospheric developments over the delta-spot, we show that a shearing motion along a polarity inversion is more effective than convergence for creating a chromospheric filament. We invoke the release of an instability, triggered by a sequence of processes lasting 1 day or more, to explain the disruption of the f-umbra in this delta-spot. We show that the sequence is initiated when the colliding p-f umbrae reach a critical separation around 3200 +/- 200 km. We present a descriptive model in which the reconnected magnetic fields block vertical transport of convective heat flux just beneath the photosphere. We observe the formation of an unusual type of penumbra adjacent to the f-polarity portion of this delta-spot just before its disruption. A tangential penumbral band grows out of disordered matter connected to the f-umbra. We present this as evidence for the extrusion of umbral magnetic flux by thermal plumes rising through a loosely bound umbra.

  17. Interactions between nested sunspots. 1: The formation and breakup of a delta-type sunspot

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaizauskas, V.; Harvey, K. L.; Proulx, M.

    1994-01-01

    We investigate a nest of sunspots in which three ordinary bipolar pairs of sunspots are aligned collinearly. The usual spreading action of the growing regions brings two spots of leading polarity together (p-p collision) and forces the leading and trailing spots of the two interior regions to overlap inot a single penumbra (p-f collision), thus forming a delta-spot. We examine digitally processed images from the Ottawa River Solar Observatory of two related events inside the delta-spot 5 days after the p-f collision begins: the violent disruption of the f-umbra, and the formation in less than a day of an hydrogen-alpha filament. The evolutionary changes in shape, area, relative motions, and brightness that we measure for each spot in the elongated nest are more compatible with Parker's (1979a) hypothesis of a sunspot as a cluster of flux tubes held together by downdrafts than with the notion of a sunspot as a monolithic plug of magnetic flux. From chromospheric developments over the delta-spot, we show that a shearing motion along a polarity inversion is more effective than convergence for creating a chromospheric filament. We invoke the release of an instability, triggered by a sequence of processes lasting 1 day or more, to explain the disruption of the f-umbra in this delta-spot. We show that the sequence is initiated when the colliding p-f umbrae reach a critical separation around 3200 +/- 200 km. We present a descriptive model in which the reconnected magnetic fields block vertical transport of convective heat flux just beneath the photosphere. We observe the formation of an unusual type of penumbra adjacent to the f-polarity portion of this delta-spot just before its disruption. A tangential penumbral band grows out of disordered matter connected to the f-umbra. We present this as evidence for the extrusion of umbral magnetic flux by thermal plumes rising through a loosely bound umbra.

  18. On dependence of seismic activity on 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhantayev, Zhumabek; Khachikyan, Galina; Breusov, Nikolay

    2014-05-01

    It is found in the last decades that seismic activity of the Earth has a tendency to increase with decreasing solar activity (increasing cosmic rays). A good example of this effect may be the growing number of catastrophic earthquakes in the recent rather long solar minimum. Such results support idea on existence a solar-lithosphere relationship which, no doubts, is a part of total pattern of solar-terrestrial relationships. The physical mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships is not developed yet. It is believed at present that one of the main contenders for such mechanism may be the global electric circuit (GEC) - vertical current loops, piercing and electrodynamically coupling all geospheres. It is also believed, that the upper boundary of the GEC is located at the magnetopause, where magnetic field of the solar wind reconnects with the geomagnetic field, that results in penetrating solar wind energy into the earth's environment. The effectiveness of the GEC operation depends on intensity of cosmic rays (CR), which ionize the air in the middle atmosphere and provide its conductivity. In connection with the foregoing, it can be expected: i) quantitatively, an increasing seismic activity from solar maximum to solar minimum may be in the same range as increasing CR flux; and ii) in those regions of the globe, where the crust is shipped by the magnetic field lines with number L= ~ 2.0, which are populated by anomalous cosmic rays (ACR), the relationship of seismic activity with variations in solar activity will be manifested most clearly, since there is a pronounced dependence of ACR on solar activity variations. Checking an assumption (i) with data of the global seismological catalog of the NEIC, USGS for 1973-2010, it was found that yearly number of earthquake with magnitude M≥4.5 varies into the 11 year solar cycle in a quantitative range of about 7-8% increasing to solar minimum, that qualitatively and quantitatively as well is in agreement with the

  19. SEISMIC DISCRIMINATION OF THERMAL AND MAGNETIC ANOMALIES IN SUNSPOT UMBRAE

    SciTech Connect

    Lindsey, C.; Cally, P. S.; Rempel, M.

    2010-08-20

    Efforts to model sunspots based on helioseismic signatures need to discriminate between the effects of (1) a strong magnetic field that introduces time-irreversible, vantage-dependent phase shifts, apparently connected to fast- and slow-mode coupling and wave absorption and (2) a thermal anomaly that includes cool gas extending an indefinite depth beneath the photosphere. Helioseismic observations of sunspots show travel times considerably reduced with respect to equivalent quiet-Sun signatures. Simulations by Moradi and Cally of waves skipping across sunspots with photospheric magnetic fields of order 3 kG show travel times that respond strongly to the magnetic field and relatively weakly to the thermal anomaly by itself. We note that waves propagating vertically in a vertical magnetic field are relatively insensitive to the magnetic field, while remaining highly responsive to the attendant thermal anomaly. Travel-time measurements for waves with large skip distances into the centers of axially symmetric sunspots are therefore a crucial resource for discrimination of the thermal anomaly beneath sunspot umbrae from the magnetic anomaly. One-dimensional models of sunspot umbrae based on compressible-radiative-magnetic-convective simulations such as by Rempel et al. can be fashioned to fit observed helioseismic travel-time spectra in the centers of sunspot umbrae. These models are based on cooling of the upper 2-4 Mm of the umbral subphotosphere with no significant anomaly beneath 4.5 Mm. The travel-time reductions characteristic of these models are primarily a consequence of a Wilson depression resulting from a strong downward buoyancy of the cooled umbral medium.

  20. Numerical simulations of the subsurface structure of sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rempel, M.; Cheung, M.; Birch, A. C.; Braun, D. C.

    2011-12-01

    Knowledge of the subsurface magnetic field and flow structure of sunspots is essential for understanding the processes involved in their formation, dynamic evolution and decay. Information on the subsurface structure can be obtained by either direct numerical modeling or helioseismic inversions. Numerical simulations have reached only in recent years the point at which entire sunspots or even active regions can be modeled including all relevant physical processes such as 3D radiative transfer and a realistic equation of state. We present in this talk results from a series of different models: from simulations of individual sunspots (with and without penumbrae) in differently sized computational domains to simulations of the active region formation process (flux emergence). It is found in all models that the subsurface magnetic field fragments on an intermediate scale (larger than the scale of sunspot fine structure such as umbral dots); most of these fragmentations become visible as light bridges or flux separation events in the photosphere. The subsurface field strength is found to be in the 5-10 kG range. The simulated sunspots are surrounded by large scale flows, the most dominant and robust flow component is a deep reaching outflow with an amplitude reaching about 50% of the convective RMS velocity at the respective depth. The simulated sunspots show helioseismic signatures (frequency dependent travel time shifts) similar to those in observed sunspots. On the other hand it is clear from the simulations that these signatures originate in the upper most 2-3 Mm of the convection zone, since only there substantial perturbations of the wave speed are present. The contributions from deeper layers are insignificant, in particular a direct comparison between an 8 Mm and 16 Mm deep simulation leads to indiscernible helioseismic differences. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. This work is in part supported

  1. An international comparison of dietary patterns in 9–11-year-old children

    PubMed Central

    Mikkilä, V; Vepsäläinen, H; Saloheimo, T; Gonzalez, S A; Meisel, J D; Hu, G; Champagne, C M; Chaput, J-P; Church, T S; Katzmarzyk, P T; Kuriyan, R; Kurpad, A; Lambert, E V; Maher, C; Maia, J; Matsudo, V; Olds, T; Onywera, V; Sarmiento, O L; Standage, M; Tremblay, M S; Tudor-Locke, C; Zhao, P; Fogelholm, M

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Dietary pattern is defined as a combination of foods and drinks and the frequency of consumption within a population. Dietary patterns are changing on a global level, which may be linked to an increased incidence of chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to identify and compare the dietary patterns among 9–11-year-old children living in urban regions in different parts of the world. METHODS: Participants were 7199 children (54% girls), aged 9–11 years, from 12 countries situated in all major world regions. Food consumption was assessed using a 23-item Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). To identify dietary patterns, principal components analyses (PCA) were carried out using weekly portions as input variables. RESULTS: Both site-specific and pooled PCA resulted in two strong components. Component 1 (‘unhealthy diet pattern') included fast foods, ice cream, fried food, French fries, potato chips, cakes and sugar-sweetened sodas with >0.6 loadings. The loadings for component 2 (‘healthy diet pattern') were slightly weaker with only dark-green vegetables, orange vegetables, vegetables in general, and fruits and berries reaching a >0.6 loading. The site-specific diet pattern scores had very strong correlations with the pattern scores from the pooled data: r=0.82 and 0.94 for components 1 and 2, respectively. CONCULSIONS: The results suggest that the same ‘healthier' and ‘unhealthier' foods tend to be consumed in similar combinations among 9–11-year-old children in different countries, despite variation in food culture, geographical location, ethnic background and economic development. PMID:27152179

  2. Dexa Body Composition Assessment in 10-11 Year Healthy Children

    PubMed Central

    Doodeman, H. J.; Struijf, E.; Houdijk, A. P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Obesity is a growing health problem associated with metabolic derangements and cardiovascular disease. Accumulating evidence links the accumulation of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) to these obesity related health risks in adults. Childhood obesity is associated with a lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease and poses a serious challenge to future health care. In children, there is much less data on the prevalence and gender differences of visceral obesity than in adults. This study aims to provide reference values for VAT in children 10–11 years of age. Methods In a cross-sectional study performed in the north western part of theNetherlands, healthy children of 10–11 years of age, were recruited from primary schools. Anthropometric data consisting of height, weight, waist circumference (WC) and BMI were measured. Body composition was measured using DXA, providing measures for bone mineral content, total fat mass (TFM), lean body mass (LBM) and VAT. Results 217 children were eligible for this study. Girls appeared to have a greater TFM (31.4% vs 27.5% of total body weight (TBW); P < .01) but lower VAT (0.3% vs 0.5% of TBW;P < .01) than boys, whereas boys had higher LBM (65.4% vs 69.3% TBW;P < .01). Median VAT area (cm2) was 41.1 for boys and 22.4 for girls (P < .01). Moderate to strong correlations were found for WC and BMI with VAT (boys: r = .664 and r = .630; Girls r = .699 and r = .546 respectively all P < .001). Discussion This study shows gender specific differences in VAT percentiles in healthy non-obese 10–11 year old children as measured by DXA that may serve as reference values in children. Independent of BMI and WC, girls tend to have more TFM but less VAT and LBM than boys. PMID:27788168

  3. Solar B/Hinode Image of Sunspot

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    Hinode (Sunrise), formerly known as Solar-B before reaching orbit, was launched from the Uchinoura Space Center in Japan on September 23, 2006. Hinode was designed to probe into the Sun's magnetic field to better understand the origin of solar disturbances which interfere with satellite communications, electrical power transmission grids, and the safety of astronauts traveling beyond the Earth's magnetic field. Hinode is circling Earth in a polar orbit that places the instruments in continuous sunlight for nine months each year and allows data dumps to a high latitude European Space Agency (ESA) ground station every orbit. NASA and other science teams will support instrument operations and data collection from the spacecraft's operation center at the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency's (JAXA's) Institute of Space and Aeronautical Science facility located in Tokyo. The Hinode spacecraft is a collaboration among space agencies of Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) managed development of three instruments comprising the spacecraft; the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT); the X-Ray Telescope (XRT); and the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Imaging Spectrometer (EIS). This image of a sunspot, taken by Hinode, is a prime example of what the spacecraft can offer.

  4. Isolated ileal ganglioneuromatosis in an 11-year-old boy: Case report and review of literature.

    PubMed

    Mitra, Subhashis; Mukherjee, Sanghamitra; Chakraborty, Hema

    2016-01-01

    Ganglioneuromatous proliferation in the gastrointestinal tract is a rare occurrence and is usually associated with specific syndrome complexes such as multiple endocrine neoplasia Type 2B or von Recklinghausen's disease. We report here a case of diffuse intestinal ganglioneuromatosis, presenting as intestinal obstruction and chronic constipation in an 11-year-old boy. Sporadic cases of intestinal ganglioneuromatosis in the absence of any systemic manifestations are a very rare cause of enteric motility disorders in childhood, and we discuss the pathological and clinical significance of this finding. Histopathological identification of this uncommon cause of a common pediatric problem is important since the condition is amenable to surgical treatment.

  5. An 11-year follow-up of a network of cocaine users.

    PubMed

    Murphy, S B; Reinarman, C; Waldorf, D

    1989-04-01

    This paper presents findings from an exploratory 11-year follow-up study of a small network of cocaine users. These findings suggest that while serious abuse potential exists, addiction is not a uniform outcome of sustained use and that long-term controlled use is possible. In all, four types of career use pattern are described, in addition to one case of regular abuse. These data also suggest the importance of user norms and informal social controls in mitigating against the force of pharmacological and physiological factors leading toward dependence or addiction.

  6. Mask face: bilateral simultaneous facial palsy in an 11-year-old boy.

    PubMed

    Güngör, Serdal; Güngör Raif, Sabiha; Arslan, Müjgan

    2013-04-01

    Bilateral facial paralysis is an uncommon clinical entity especially in the pediatric age group and occurs frequently as a manifestation of systemic disease. The most important causes are trauma, infectious diseases, neurological diseases, metabolic, neoplastic, autoimmune diseases and idiopathic disease (Bell's palsy). We report a case of an 11-year-old boy presenting with bilateral simultaneous peripheral facial paralysis. All possible infectious causes were excluded and the patient was diagnosed as having Bell's palsy (idiopathic). The most important approach in these cases is to rule out a life-threatening disease.

  7. Hyporeninemic hypoaldosteronism associated with multiple myeloma: 11 years of follow-up.

    PubMed

    Shaked, Y; Blau, A; Shpilberg, O; Samra, Y

    1993-08-01

    Hyporeninemic hypoaldosteronism is an important underlying condition, causing hyperkalemia with hyperchloremic metabolic acidosis, disproportionate to the degree of renal insufficiency present. The principal defect in this syndrome is a reduced level of plasma renin activity, which results in secondary hypoaldosteronism. Diabetes mellitus is usually the primary underlying renal disease, though other causes of renal diseases associated with this syndrome have been described. This case report describes for the first time an elderly patient with multiple myeloma, in remission for more than 11 years, associated with the syndrome of hyporeninemic hypoaldosteronism at the time of diagnosis. The complete resolution of the syndrome after vigorous chemotherapy is an intriguing possibility.

  8. A case of dissociative fugue and general amnesia with an 11-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Helmes, Edward; Brown, Julie-May; Elliott, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Dissociative fugue refers to loss of personal identity, often with the associated loss of memories of events (general amnesia). Here we report on the psychological assessment of a 54-year-old woman with loss of identity and memories of 33 years of her life attributed to dissociative fugue, along with a follow-up 11 years later. Significant levels of personal injury and stress preceded the onset of the amnesia. A detailed neuropsychological assessment was completed at a university psychology clinic, with a follow-up assessment there about 11 years later with an intent to determine whether changes in her cognitive status were associated with better recall of her life and with her emotional state. Psychomotor slowing and low scores on measures of attention and both verbal and visual memory were present initially, along with significant psychological distress associated with the diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder. Although memories of her life had not returned by follow-up, distress had abated and memory test scores had improved. The passage of time and a better emotional state did not lead to recovery of lost memories. Contrary to expectations, performance on tests of executive functions was good on both occasions. Multiple stressful events are attributed as having a role in maintaining the loss of memories. PMID:25365262

  9. Frequency of family meals and 6-11-year-old children's social behaviors.

    PubMed

    Lora, Karina R; Sisson, Susan B; DeGrace, Beth W; Morris, Amanda S

    2014-08-01

    Family meals are regarded as an opportunity to promote healthy child development. In this brief report, we examined the relationship between frequency of family meals and children's social behaviors in 6-11-year-olds. The 2007 U.S. National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH) provided data on the frequency of family meals in a sample of 6-11-year-old children (N = 24,167). The following social behavior indicators were examined: child positive social skills, child problematic social behaviors, child engagement in school, and parental aggravation with the child. Individual logistic regression analyses were calculated in unadjusted and adjusted models. On average, families had 5.3 meals together per week. In adjusted models, more frequent family meals increased the odds of child positive social skills (OR = 1.08, 95% CI [1.02, 1.16]) and child engagement in school (OR = 1.11, 95% CI [1.06, 1.15]), and decreased the likelihood of child problematic social behaviors (OR = 0.92, 95% CI [0.87, 0.98]). There was no association between frequency of family meals and parental aggravation with the child (OR = 0.98, 95% CI [0.93, 1.04]). Findings support the promotion of family meals to benefit children's development of healthy social behaviors.

  10. A case of dissociative fugue and general amnesia with an 11-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Helmes, Edward; Brown, Julie-May; Elliott, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Dissociative fugue refers to loss of personal identity, often with the associated loss of memories of events (general amnesia). Here we report on the psychological assessment of a 54-year-old woman with loss of identity and memories of 33 years of her life attributed to dissociative fugue, along with a follow-up 11 years later. Significant levels of personal injury and stress preceded the onset of the amnesia. A detailed neuropsychological assessment was completed at a university psychology clinic, with a follow-up assessment there about 11 years later with an intent to determine whether changes in her cognitive status were associated with better recall of her life and with her emotional state. Psychomotor slowing and low scores on measures of attention and both verbal and visual memory were present initially, along with significant psychological distress associated with the diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder. Although memories of her life had not returned by follow-up, distress had abated and memory test scores had improved. The passage of time and a better emotional state did not lead to recovery of lost memories. Contrary to expectations, performance on tests of executive functions was good on both occasions. Multiple stressful events are attributed as having a role in maintaining the loss of memories.

  11. Er:YAG laser ablation: 5-11 years prospective study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dostalova, Tatjana; Jelinkova, Helena; Nemec, Michal; Sulc, Jan; Miyagi, Mitsunobu

    2005-03-01

    The Er:YAG laser at 2940 nm has been proposed for use in dental cavity preparation and removal of carious enamel and dentin. The purpose of the present study was to determine the effect of the Er:YAG laser ablation in treating dental caries after a period from 5 to 11 years. For this study, 133 cavities were chosen, and for their reparation of it the three restorative materials were used. Baseline examination was made in the following intervals: one week, 1 year, and from 5 to 11 years after cavity preparation and placement of filling material. Clinical assessments were carried out in accordance with the US Public Health Service System. The follow-up included: the marginal ridge, marginal adaptation, anatomic form, caries, color match, cavo surface margin discoloration, surface smoothness, and postoperative sensitivity. Er:YAG laser ablation is an excellent method for treating frontal teeth, i.e., incisors, canines, premolars, and initial occlusal caries of molars. However, visual control of non-contact therapy is necessary. Er:YAG laser ablation is safe, and it strongly reduces pain. The laser treatment markedly decreases the unpleasant sound and vibration.

  12. Memory T cell responses targeting the SARS coronavirus persist up to 11 years post-infection.

    PubMed

    Ng, Oi-Wing; Chia, Adeline; Tan, Anthony T; Jadi, Ramesh S; Leong, Hoe Nam; Bertoletti, Antonio; Tan, Yee-Joo

    2016-04-12

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a highly contagious infectious disease which first emerged in late 2002, caused by a then novel human coronavirus, SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV). The virus is believed to have originated from bats and transmitted to human through intermediate animals such as civet cats. The re-emergence of SARS-CoV remains a valid concern due to the continual persistence of zoonotic SARS-CoVs and SARS-like CoVs (SL-CoVs) in bat reservoirs. In this study, the screening for the presence of SARS-specific T cells in a cohort of three SARS-recovered individuals at 9 and 11 years post-infection was carried out, and all memory T cell responses detected target the SARS-CoV structural proteins. Two CD8(+) T cell responses targeting the SARS-CoV membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins were characterized by determining their HLA restriction and minimal T cell epitope regions. Furthermore, these responses were found to persist up to 11 years post-infection. An absence of cross-reactivity of these CD8(+) T cell responses against the newly-emerged Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was also demonstrated. The knowledge of the persistence of SARS-specific celullar immunity targeting the viral structural proteins in SARS-recovered individuals is important in the design and development of SARS vaccines, which are currently unavailable. PMID:26954467

  13. Element Pool Changes within a Scrub-Oak Ecosystem after 11 Years of Exposure to Elevated CO2

    PubMed Central

    Duval, Benjamin D.; Dijkstra, Paul; Drake, Bert G.; Johnson, Dale W.; Ketterer, Michael E.; Megonigal, J. Patrick; Hungate, Bruce A.

    2013-01-01

    The effects of elevated CO2 on ecosystem element stocks are equivocal, in part because cumulative effects of CO2 on element pools are difficult to detect. We conducted a complete above and belowground inventory of non-nitrogen macro- and micronutrient stocks in a subtropical woodland exposed to twice-ambient CO2 concentrations for 11 years. We analyzed a suite of nutrient elements and metals important for nutrient cycling in soils to a depth of ∼2 m, in leaves and stems of the dominant oaks, in fine and coarse roots, and in litter. In conjunction with large biomass stimulation, elevated CO2 increased oak stem stocks of Na, Mg, P, K, V, Zn and Mo, and the aboveground pool of K and S. Elevated CO2 increased root pools of most elements, except Zn. CO2-stimulation of plant Ca was larger than the decline in the extractable Ca pool in soils, whereas for other elements, increased plant uptake matched the decline in the extractable pool in soil. We conclude that elevated CO2 caused a net transfer of a subset of nutrients from soil to plants, suggesting that ecosystems with a positive plant growth response under high CO2 will likely cause mobilization of elements from soil pools to plant biomass. PMID:23717607

  14. Moat flow system around sunspots in shallow subsurface layers

    SciTech Connect

    Švanda, Michal; Sobotka, Michal; Bárta, Tomáš

    2014-08-01

    We investigate the subsurface moat flow system around McIntosh H-type symmetrical sunspots and compare it to the flow system within supergranular cells. Representatives of both types of flows are constructed by means of the statistical averaging of flow maps obtained by time-distance helioseismic inversions. We find that moat flows around H-type sunspots replace supergranular flows but there are two principal differences between the two phenomena: the moat flow is asymmetrical, probably due to the proper motion of sunspots with respect to the local frame of rest, while the flow in the supergranular cell is highly symmetrical. Furthermore, the whole moat is a downflow region, while the supergranule contains the upflow in the center, which turns into the downflow at about 60% of the cell radius from its center. We estimate that the mass downflow rate in the moat region is at least two times larger than the mass circulation rate within the supergranular cell.

  15. Detection of emerging sunspot regions in the solar interior.

    PubMed

    Ilonidis, Stathis; Zhao, Junwei; Kosovichev, Alexander

    2011-08-19

    Sunspots are regions where strong magnetic fields emerge from the solar interior and where major eruptive events occur. These energetic events can cause power outages, interrupt telecommunication and navigation services, and pose hazards to astronauts. We detected subsurface signatures of emerging sunspot regions before they appeared on the solar disc. Strong acoustic travel-time anomalies of an order of 12 to 16 seconds were detected as deep as 65,000 kilometers. These anomalies were associated with magnetic structures that emerged with an average speed of 0.3 to 0.6 kilometer per second and caused high peaks in the photospheric magnetic flux rate 1 to 2 days after the detection of the anomalies. Thus, synoptic imaging of subsurface magnetic activity may allow anticipation of large sunspot regions before they become visible, improving space weather forecast.

  16. A solar eruption driven by rapid sunspot rotation

    SciTech Connect

    Ruan, Guiping; Chen, Yao; Du, Guohui; Wang, Shuo; Jing, Ju; Wang, Haimin; Zhang, Hongqi; Su, Jiangtao; Xu, Haiqing; Li, Gang; Li, Xing

    2014-04-01

    We present the observation of a major solar eruption that is associated with fast sunspot rotation. The event includes a sigmoidal filament eruption, a coronal mass ejection, and a GOES X2.1 flare from NOAA active region 11283. The filament and some overlying arcades were partially rooted in a sunspot. The sunspot rotated at ∼10° hr{sup –1} during a period of 6 hr prior to the eruption. In this period, the filament was found to rise gradually along with the sunspot rotation. Based on the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager observation, for an area along the polarity inversion line underneath the filament, we found gradual pre-eruption decreases of both the mean strength of the photospheric horizontal field (B{sub h} ) and the mean inclination angle between the vector magnetic field and the local radial (or vertical) direction. These observations are consistent with the pre-eruption gradual rising of the filament-associated magnetic structure. In addition, according to the nonlinear force-free field reconstruction of the coronal magnetic field, a pre-eruption magnetic flux rope structure is found to be in alignment with the filament, and a considerable amount of magnetic energy was transported to the corona during the period of sunspot rotation. Our study provides evidence that in this event sunspot rotation plays an important role in twisting, energizing, and destabilizing the coronal filament-flux rope system, and led to the eruption. We also propose that the pre-event evolution of B{sub h} may be used to discern the driving mechanism of eruptions.

  17. Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Oldenborgh, G. J.; de Laat, A. T. J.; Luterbacher, J.; Ingram, W. J.; Osborn, T. J.

    2013-06-01

    A recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters, ‘Solar influence on winter severity in central Europe’, by Sirocko et al (2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L16704) claims that ‘weak solar activity is empirically related to extremely cold winter conditions in Europe’ based on analyses of documentary evidence of freezing of the River Rhine in Germany and of the Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (20C). However, our attempt to reproduce these findings failed. The documentary data appear to be selected subjectively and agree neither with instrumental observations nor with two other reconstructions based on documentary data. None of these datasets show significant connection between solar activity and winter severity in Europe beyond a common trend. The analysis of Sirocko et al of the 20C circulation and temperature is inconsistent with their time series analysis. A physically-motivated consistent methodology again fails to support the reported conclusions. We conclude that multiple lines of evidence contradict the findings of Sirocko et al.

  18. Anomalous polarization profiles in sunspots: possible origin of umbral flashes

    PubMed

    Socas-Navarro; Trujillo Bueno J; Ruiz Cobo B

    2000-05-26

    We present time-series spectropolarimetric observations of sunspots in the Ca II infrared triplet lines, which show a periodic occurrence of anomalous, asymmetric, circular polarization profiles in the umbral chromosphere. The profiles may be caused by the periodic development of an unresolved atmospheric component in a downward flowing magnetized environment. This active component with upward directed velocities as high as 10 kilometers per second is connected to the umbral flash (UF) phenomenon. We can explain the observations with a semiempirical model of the chromospheric oscillation and of the sunspot magnetized atmospheric plasma during a UF event. PMID:10827944

  19. ANALYSIS OF A FRAGMENTING SUNSPOT USING HINODE OBSERVATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Louis, Rohan E.; Mathew, Shibu K.; Raja Bayanna, A.; Venkatakrishnan, P.; Ravindra, B.; Bellot Rubio, Luis R.

    2012-08-10

    We employ high-resolution filtergrams and polarimetric measurements from Hinode to follow the evolution of a sunspot for eight days starting on 2007 June 28. The imaging data were corrected for intensity gradients, projection effects, and instrumental stray light prior to the analysis. The observations show the formation of a light bridge at one corner of the sunspot by a slow intrusion of neighboring penumbral filaments. This divided the umbra into two individual umbral cores. During the light bridge formation, there was a steep increase in its intensity from 0.28 to 0.7 I{sub QS} in nearly 4 hr, followed by a gradual increase to quiet-Sun (QS) values in 13 hr. This increase in intensity was accompanied by a large reduction in the field strength from 1800 G to 300 G. The smaller umbral core gradually broke away from the parent sunspot nearly two days after the formation of the light bridge, rendering the parent spot without a penumbra at the location of fragmentation. The penumbra in the fragment disappeared first within 34 hr, followed by the fragment whose area decayed exponentially with a time constant of 22 hr. In comparison, the parent sunspot area followed a linear decay rate of 0.94 Mm{sup 2} hr{sup -1}. The depleted penumbra in the parent sunspot regenerated when the inclination of the magnetic field at the penumbra-QS boundary became within 40 Degree-Sign from being completely horizontal and this occurred near the end of the fragment's lifetime. After the disappearance of the fragment, another light bridge formed in the parent which had similar properties as the fragmenting one, but did not divide the sunspot. The significant weakening in field strength in the light bridge along with the presence of granulation is suggestive of strong convection in the sunspot, which might have triggered the expulsion and fragmentation of the smaller spot. Although the presence of QS photospheric conditions in sunspot umbrae could be a necessary condition for

  20. Analysis of a Fragmenting Sunspot Using Hinode Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Louis, Rohan E.; Ravindra, B.; Mathew, Shibu K.; Bellot Rubio, Luis R.; Raja Bayanna, A.; Venkatakrishnan, P.

    2012-08-01

    We employ high-resolution filtergrams and polarimetric measurements from Hinode to follow the evolution of a sunspot for eight days starting on 2007 June 28. The imaging data were corrected for intensity gradients, projection effects, and instrumental stray light prior to the analysis. The observations show the formation of a light bridge at one corner of the sunspot by a slow intrusion of neighboring penumbral filaments. This divided the umbra into two individual umbral cores. During the light bridge formation, there was a steep increase in its intensity from 0.28 to 0.7 I QS in nearly 4 hr, followed by a gradual increase to quiet-Sun (QS) values in 13 hr. This increase in intensity was accompanied by a large reduction in the field strength from 1800 G to 300 G. The smaller umbral core gradually broke away from the parent sunspot nearly two days after the formation of the light bridge, rendering the parent spot without a penumbra at the location of fragmentation. The penumbra in the fragment disappeared first within 34 hr, followed by the fragment whose area decayed exponentially with a time constant of 22 hr. In comparison, the parent sunspot area followed a linear decay rate of 0.94 Mm2 hr-1. The depleted penumbra in the parent sunspot regenerated when the inclination of the magnetic field at the penumbra-QS boundary became within 40° from being completely horizontal and this occurred near the end of the fragment's lifetime. After the disappearance of the fragment, another light bridge formed in the parent which had similar properties as the fragmenting one, but did not divide the sunspot. The significant weakening in field strength in the light bridge along with the presence of granulation is suggestive of strong convection in the sunspot, which might have triggered the expulsion and fragmentation of the smaller spot. Although the presence of QS photospheric conditions in sunspot umbrae could be a necessary condition for fragmentation, it is not a sufficient

  1. Pulmonary veno-occlusive disease in an 11-year-old girl: diagnostic pitfalls.

    PubMed

    Kano, Gen; Nakamura, Keiko; Sakamoto, Izumi

    2014-02-01

    Pulmonary veno-occlusive disease (PVOD) is a rare chronic lung disease that is difficult to diagnose due to non-specific clinical findings. Little is known about the pathogenesis of PVOD. Reported herein is the case of an 11-year-old girl who initially presented with 'bat-wing' shadows on chest radiography. This finding, coupled with prominent hemosiderosis in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, initially led to a misdiagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary hemosiderosis. Oral prednisolone dramatically improved signs and symptoms initially, but her condition then gradually deteriorated during maintenance therapy with corticosteroids and other immunosuppressants. PVOD was suspected but not confirmed owing to a lack of hallmark radiographic findings and contraindications for lung biopsy. Three years later, while arranging for lung transplantation, the patient experienced sudden onset of fatal massive pulmonary edema. PVOD was confirmed at autopsy. This case provides insights regarding an unfamiliar presentation of PVOD and may help physicians to avoid diagnostic pitfalls.

  2. An 11-year-old boy with pharyngitis and cough: Lemierre syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Mação, Patricia; Cancelinha, Candida; Lopes, Paulo; Rodrigues, Fernanda

    2013-01-01

    The authors present the case of an 11-year-old boy with pharyngitis, treated with amoxicillin, that worsened on day 7, with cough, high fever and refusal to eat. Lethargy and respiratory distress were noted. Based on radiographic findings of bilateral infiltrates he was diagnosed with pneumonia and started on intravenous ampicillin and erythromycin. Two days later he complained of right-sided neck pain and a palpable mass was identified. An ultrasound showed partial thrombosis of the right internal jugular vein and a lung CT scan revealed multiple septic embolic lesions. Lemierre syndrome was diagnosed, antibiotic treatment adjusted and anticoagulation started. A neck CT-scan showed a large parapharyngeal abscess. His clinical condition improved gradually and after 3 weeks of intravenous antibiotics he was discharged home on oral treatment. This case illustrates the importance of diagnosing Lemierre syndrome in the presence of pharyngitis with localised neck pain and respiratory distress, to prevent potentially fatal complications. PMID:23616317

  3. A fatal outcome of complicated severe diabetic ketoacidosis in a 11-year-old girl.

    PubMed

    Severinski, Srećko; Butorac Ahel, Ivona; Ovuka, Aleksandar; Verbić, Arijan

    2016-08-01

    Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is a complex metabolic state characterized by hyperglycemia, metabolic acidosis and ketonuria. Cerebral edema is the most common rare complication of DKA in children. The objective of the study was to emphasize the importance of careful evaluation and monitoring for signs and symptoms of cerebral edema in all children undergoing treatment for DKA. We present a case of 11-year-old girl with a history of diabetes mellitus type I (T1DM) who presented with severe DKA complicated by hypovolemic shock, cerebral edema and hematemesis. Considering the fact that complications of DKA are rare and require a high index of clinical suspicion, early recognition and treatment are crucial for avoiding permanent damage.

  4. Absorbed doses and radiation damage during the 11 years of LEP operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schönbacher, H.; Tavlet, M.

    2004-03-01

    During the 11 years of operation of the large electron-positron collider (LEP), synchrotron radiation was emitted in the tunnel. This ionizing radiation induced degradation in organic insulators and structural materials, as well as in electronics. Annual dosimetric measurements have shown that the level of radiation increased with the ninth power of the beam energy. During the machine shutdowns and at the end of the operation, samples of rigid and flexible polymeric insulators (magnet-coil resins and cable insulations) were taken out and checked for their integrity. The test results are compared with the results obtained during the qualification of the materials, 12-15 years ago. At that time, lifetime predictions were made; they are now compared with the real time-aged materials.

  5. The Pioneer Venus Orbiter: 11 years of data. A laboratory for atmospheres seminar talk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kasprzak, W. T.

    1990-01-01

    The Pioneer Venus Orbiter has been in operation since orbit insertion on December 4, 1978. For the past 11 years, it has been acquiring data in the salient features of the planet, its atmosphere, ionosphere, and interaction with the solar wind. A few of the results of this mission are summarized and their contribution to our general understanding of the planet Venus is discussed. Although Earth and Venus are often called twin planets, they are only superficially similar. Possessing no obvious evidence of plate tectonics, lacking water and an intrinsic magnetic field, and having a hot, dense carbon dioxide atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds makes Venus a unique object of study by the Orbiter's instruments.

  6. A fatal outcome of complicated severe diabetic ketoacidosis in a 11-year-old girl.

    PubMed

    Severinski, Srećko; Butorac Ahel, Ivona; Ovuka, Aleksandar; Verbić, Arijan

    2016-08-01

    Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is a complex metabolic state characterized by hyperglycemia, metabolic acidosis and ketonuria. Cerebral edema is the most common rare complication of DKA in children. The objective of the study was to emphasize the importance of careful evaluation and monitoring for signs and symptoms of cerebral edema in all children undergoing treatment for DKA. We present a case of 11-year-old girl with a history of diabetes mellitus type I (T1DM) who presented with severe DKA complicated by hypovolemic shock, cerebral edema and hematemesis. Considering the fact that complications of DKA are rare and require a high index of clinical suspicion, early recognition and treatment are crucial for avoiding permanent damage. PMID:27226096

  7. Performance as a function of shooting style in basketball players under 11 years of age.

    PubMed

    Arias, José L

    2012-04-01

    Shooting style in basketball refers to the height adopted by a player in holding the ball, specifically the height of the hand and the ball with regard to the line of sight before the final extension of the elbow during a shot. The literature differentiates between a high and a low style. This study analyzed shooting frequency in young boys as a function of style and which shooting style had the highest accuracy and success in real games. Participants were 81 boys from eight basketball teams, aged 9-11 years. The sample consisted of 5,740 standard shots in 56 games. The design was nomotethic, follow-up, and multidimensional. The results indicated that low style predominated over the high style, although overall accuracy and efficacy were better using the high style. Various strategies and practical considerations are suggested for teachers and coaches to focus on teaching the high style.

  8. Does school environment affect 11-year-olds' fruit and vegetable intake in Denmark?

    PubMed

    Krølner, Rikke; Due, Pernille; Rasmussen, Mette; Damsgaard, Mogens Trab; Holstein, Bjørn E; Klepp, Knut-Inge; Lynch, John

    2009-04-01

    It is often found that adolescents eat too little fruit and vegetables. We examined the importance of school for 11-year-olds' daily intake measured by food frequency- and 24-h recall questionnaires in Danish data from the European 2003 Pro Children Survey. Multilevel logistic regression analyses included matched student-parent-school questionnaire data (N=1410) from a random sample of 59 schools and were conducted for fruit and vegetables separately: 1) without explanatory variables, to decompose the between-school and within-school variance; 2) with individual level covariates (socioeconomic position, parental intake, etc.) to examine if the between-school variance was attributable to different student compositions of schools; and 3) with individual- and school-level covariates (school availability of fruit/vegetables and unhealthy food) to examine the effect of context. Additional analyses stratified by gender and home availability of fruit/vegetables examined if school food availability influenced subgroups differently. Between-school variations were quantified by intra class correlations and median odds ratios. We found that 40% of the students ate > or = 200 g fruit/day and 25% ate > or = 130 g vegetables/day. Most of the total variance in students' intake occurred at the individual level (93-98%). There were larger between-school variations in vegetable intake than in fruit intake. Fruit and vegetable consumption clustered within schools to a larger degree for boys than girls. The between-school variance did not differ by home availability. Boys and students from high availability homes consumed more fruit and/or vegetables if enrolled in schools with access to fruit/vegetables and unhealthy food or contrarily with no food available versus schools with only fruit/vegetables available. The small school-level effects on 11-year-olds' fruit and vegetable intake imply that family level interventions may be more important and that the success of school

  9. Hierarchical reproductive allocation and allometry within a perennial bunchgrass after 11 years of nutrient addition.

    PubMed

    Tian, Dashuan; Pan, Qingmin; Simmons, Matthew; Chaolu, Hada; Du, Baohong; Bai, Yongfei; Wang, Hong; Han, Xingguo

    2012-01-01

    Bunchgrasses are one of the most important plant functional groups in grassland ecosystems. Reproductive allocation (RA) for a bunchgrass is a hierarchical process; however, how bunchgrasses adjust their RAs along hierarchical levels in response to nutrient addition has never been addressed. Here, utilizing an 11-year nutrient addition experiment, we examined the patterns and variations in RA of Agropyron cristatum at the individual, tiller and spike levels. We evaluated the reproductive allometric relationship at each level by type II regression analysis to determine size-dependent and size-independent effects on plant RA variations. Our results indicate that the proportion of reproductive individuals in A. cristatum increased significantly after 11 years of nutrient addition. Adjustments in RA in A. cristatum were mainly occurred at the individual and tiller levels but not at the spike level. A size-dependent effect was a dominant mechanism underlying the changes in plant RA at both individual and tiller levels. Likewise, the distribution of plant size was markedly changed with large individuals increasing after nutrient addition. Tiller-level RA may be a limiting factor for the adjustment of RA in A. cristatum. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine plant responses in terms of reproductive allocation and allometry to nutrient enrichment within a bunchgrass population from a hierarchical view. Our findings have important implications for understanding the mechanisms underlying bunchgrass responses in RA to future eutrophication due to human activities. In addition, we developed a hierarchical analysis method for disentangling the mechanisms that lead to variation in RA for perennial bunchgrasses.

  10. Size at birth and blood pressure: cross sectional study in 8-11 year old children.

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, S. J.; Whincup, P. H.; Cook, D. G.; Papacosta, O.; Walker, M.

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To identify which patterns of fetal growth, represented by different measurements of size at birth, are associated with increased blood pressure in children aged 8-11 years. DESIGN AND SETTING: School based, cross sectional survey conducted in 10 towns in England and Wales in 1994. SUBJECTS: 3010 singleton children (response rate 75%) with physical measurements and information on birth weight from parental questionnaires. Hospital birth records were examined for 1573. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Systolic and diastolic blood pressure at age 8-11 years. RESULTS: In the whole group birth weight was inversely related to systolic pressure (regression coefficient -1.48 mm Hg/kg; 95% confidence interval -2.20 to -0.76) after adjustment for current body size. There was no significant association between birth weight and diastolic pressure. The association with systolic pressure was much stronger in girls (-2.54 mm Hg/kg; -3.60 to -1.48) than in boys (-0.64 mm Hg/kg; -1.58 to 0.30), with a significant difference between the sexes (P = 0.006). Among the other neonatal measures, head circumference and placental weight were inversely associated with subsequent blood pressure in girls, and placental ratio (placental weight:birth weight) was positively associated with blood pressure in boys. Neither ponderal index at birth nor length:head circumference ratio was related to blood pressure in either sex. CONCLUSIONS: In these contemporary children the association between birth weight and blood pressure was apparent only in girls. There was no evidence that measures of size at birth, which may be related to nutrition at critical periods of pregnancy (thinness at birth or shortness in relation to head circumference), are related to blood pressure in the offspring. PMID:9056797

  11. Auditory-Motor Learning during Speech Production in 9-11-Year-Old Children

    PubMed Central

    Shiller, Douglas M.; Gracco, Vincent L.; Rvachew, Susan

    2010-01-01

    Background Hearing ability is essential for normal speech development, however the precise mechanisms linking auditory input and the improvement of speaking ability remain poorly understood. Auditory feedback during speech production is believed to play a critical role by providing the nervous system with information about speech outcomes that is used to learn and subsequently fine-tune speech motor output. Surprisingly, few studies have directly investigated such auditory-motor learning in the speech production of typically developing children. Methodology/Principal Findings In the present study, we manipulated auditory feedback during speech production in a group of 9–11-year old children, as well as in adults. Following a period of speech practice under conditions of altered auditory feedback, compensatory changes in speech production and perception were examined. Consistent with prior studies, the adults exhibited compensatory changes in both their speech motor output and their perceptual representations of speech sound categories. The children exhibited compensatory changes in the motor domain, with a change in speech output that was similar in magnitude to that of the adults, however the children showed no reliable compensatory effect on their perceptual representations. Conclusions The results indicate that 9–11-year-old children, whose speech motor and perceptual abilities are still not fully developed, are nonetheless capable of auditory-feedback-based sensorimotor adaptation, supporting a role for such learning processes in speech motor development. Auditory feedback may play a more limited role, however, in the fine-tuning of children's perceptual representations of speech sound categories. PMID:20886033

  12. The Schwabe and Gleissberg Periods in the Wolf Sunspot Numbers and the Group Sunspot Numbers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, K. J.; Gao, P. X.; Su, T. W.

    2005-06-01

    Three wavelet functions: the Morlet wavelet, the Paul wavelet, and the DOG wavelet have been respectively performed on both the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers (Rz) from January 1749 to May 2004 and the monthly group sunspot numbers (Rg) from June 1795 to December 1995 to study the evolution of the Gleissberg and Schwabe periods of solar activity. The main results obtained are (1) the two most obvious periods in both the Rz and Rg are the Schwabe and Gleissberg periods. The Schwabe period oscillated during the second half of the eighteenth century and was steady from the 1850s onward. No obvious drifting trend of the Schwabe period exists. (2) The Gleissberg period obviously drifts to longer periods the whole consideration time, and the drifting speed of the Gleissberg period is larger for Rz than for Rg. (3) Although the Schwabe-period values for Rz and Rg are about 10.7 years, the value for Rz seems slightly larger than that for Rg. The Schwabe period of Rz is highly significant after the 1820s, and the Schwabe period of Rg is highly significant over almost the whole consideration time except for about 20 years around the 1800s. The evolution of the Schwabe period for both Rz and Rg in time is similar to each other. (4) The Gleissberg period in Rz and Rg is highly significant during the whole consideration time, but this result is unreliable at the two ends of each of the time series of the data. The evolution of the Gleissberg period in Rz is similar to that in Rg.

  13. VizieR Online Data Catalog: Sunspot areas and tilt angles (Senthamizh Pavai+, 2015)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Senthamizh Pavai, V.; Arlt, R.; Dasi-Espuig, M.; Krivova, N.; Solanki, S.

    2015-11-01

    We present sunspot positions and areas from historical observations of sunspots by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe from Dessau, Germany. He has recorded his observations of sunspots from 1825-1867 as drawings in small circles of about 5cm diameter (representing the solar disk). Even though he has used quite a number of telescopes for his observations, the majority of the full-disk drawings were made with a 3-1/2-foot telescope from Fraunhofer. His observing log books are stored in the library of the Royal Astronomical Society in London. Those drawings were digitized photographically with a resolution of 2912x4378 pixels per page. The sizes and positions of the sunspots were measured using a dozen of circular mouse cursor shapes with different diameters. The sunspot sizes in Schwabe's drawings are not to scale and need to be converted into physical sunspot areas. We employed a statistical approach assuming that the area distribution of sunspots was the same in the 19th century as it was in the 20th century. Umbral areas for about 130,000 sunspots observed by Schwabe were obtained, as well as the tilt angles of sunspot groups assuming them to be bipolar (two or more spots). There is, of course, no polarity information in the observations. Both an updated sunspot database and a tilt angle database are available at http://www.aip.de/Members/rarlt/ sunspots for further study. (2 data files).

  14. Helioseismic Holography of Simulated Sunspots: Magnetic and Thermal Contributions to Travel Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felipe, T.; Braun, D. C.; Crouch, A. D.; Birch, A. C.

    2016-10-01

    Wave propagation through sunspots involves conversion between waves of acoustic and magnetic character. In addition, the thermal structure of sunspots is very different than that of the quiet Sun. As a consequence, the interpretation of local helioseismic measurements of sunspots has long been a challenge. With the aim of understanding these measurements, we carry out numerical simulations of wave propagation through sunspots. Helioseismic holography measurements made from the resulting simulated wavefields show qualitative agreement with observations of real sunspots. We use additional numerical experiments to determine, separately, the influence of the thermal structure of the sunspot and the direct effect of the sunspot magnetic field. We use the ray approximation to show that the travel-time shifts in the thermal (non-magnetic) sunspot model are primarily produced by changes in the wave path due to the Wilson depression rather than variations in the wave speed. This shows that inversions for the subsurface structure of sunspots must account for local changes in the density. In some ranges of horizontal phase speed and frequency there is agreement (within the noise level in the simulations) between the travel times measured in the full magnetic sunspot model and the thermal model. If this conclusion proves to be robust for a wide range of models, it would suggest a path toward inversions for sunspot structure.

  15. Three-Dimensional Chromospheric Thermal Structure of Sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad Choudhary, Debi; Beck, Christian

    2016-05-01

    We have observed several sunspots using the Spectropolarimeter for Infrared and Optical wavelength Ranges at the Dunn Solar Telescope during 29 July to 4 August 2013. The data consists of full Stokes profiles in the Ca II 854.2 nm and Fe I 1.56 micron lines. The inversion of these Stokes spectra provides the magnetic, thermal and velocity structure at photospheric and chromospheric heights of sunspots. In this contribution, we present the results on the 3D thermal structure in the super-penumbral canopy of a round sunspot, derived by a novel approach for the inversion of Ca II IR spectra. Tracing individual fibrils in the super-penumbral canopy, we find that about half of them form only short loops of a a few Mm length that return to the photosphere in the close surroundings of the sunspot instead of connecting to more remote magnetic network at the outer end of the moat flow. We also find indications for standing shocks at the inner foot points of the flow channels that are compatible with a supersonic siphon flow scenario.

  16. Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Maximum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2003-01-01

    A simple method for monitoring the nearness and size of conventional cycle maximum for an ongoing sunspot cycle is examined. The method uses the observed maximum daily value and the maximum monthly mean value of international sunspot number and the maximum value of the 2-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number to effect the estimation. For cycle 23, a maximum daily value of 246, a maximum monthly mean of 170.1, and a maximum 2-mo moving average of 148.9 were each observed in July 2000. Taken together, these values strongly suggest that conventional maximum amplitude for cycle 23 would be approx. 124.5, occurring near July 2002 +/-5 mo, very close to the now well-established conventional maximum amplitude and occurrence date for cycle 23-120.8 in April 2000.

  17. The 11-year long-term follow-up study from the randomized BENEFIT CIS trial

    PubMed Central

    Edan, Gilles; Freedman, Mark S.; Montalbán, Xavier; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Hemmer, Bernhard; Fox, Edward J.; Barkhof, Frederik; Schippling, Sven; Schulze, Andrea; Pleimes, Dirk; Pohl, Christoph; Sandbrink, Rupert; Suarez, Gustavo; Wicklein, Eva-Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To assess outcomes for patients treated with interferon beta-1b immediately after clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) or after a short delay. Methods: Participants in BENEFIT (Betaferon/Betaseron in Newly Emerging MS for Initial Treatment) were randomly assigned to receive interferon beta-1b (early treatment) or placebo (delayed treatment). After conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) or 2 years, patients on placebo could switch to interferon beta-1b or another treatment. Eleven years after randomization, patients were reassessed. Results: Two hundred seventy-eight (59.4%) of the original 468 patients (71.3% of those eligible at participating sites) were enrolled (early: 167 [57.2%]; delayed: 111 [63.1%]). After 11 years, risk of CDMS remained lower in the early-treatment arm compared with the delayed-treatment arm (p = 0.0012), with longer time to first relapse (median [Q1, Q3] days: 1,888 [540, not reached] vs 931 [253, 3,296]; p = 0.0005) and lower overall annualized relapse rate (0.21 vs 0.26; p = 0.0018). Only 25 patients (5.9%, overall; early, 4.5%; delayed, 8.3%) converted to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Expanded Disability Status Scale scores remained low and stable, with no difference between treatment arms (median [Q1, Q3]: 2.0 [1.0, 3.0]). The early-treatment group had better Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task–3 total scores (p = 0.0070). Employment rates remained high, and health resource utilization tended to be low in both groups. MRI metrics did not differ between groups. Conclusions: Although the delay in treatment was relatively short, several clinical outcomes favored earlier treatment. Along with low rates of disability and disease progression in both groups, this supports the value of treatment at CIS. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01795872. Classification of evidence: This study provides Class IV evidence that early compared to delayed treatment prolongs time to CDMS in CIS after 11 years. PMID

  18. Reporting accuracy of packed lunch consumption among Danish 11-year-olds differ by gender

    PubMed Central

    Lyng, Nina; Fagt, Sisse; Davidsen, Michael; Hoppe, Camilla; Holstein, Bjørn; Tetens, Inge

    2013-01-01

    Background Packed lunch is the dominant lunch format in many countries including Denmark. School lunch is consumed unsupervised, and self-reported recalls are appropriate in the school setting. However, little is known about the accuracy of recalls in relation to packed lunch. Objective To assess the qualitative recall accuracy of self-reported consumption of packed lunch among Danish 11-year-old children in relation to gender and dietary assessment method. Design A cross-sectional dietary recall study of packed lunch consumption. Digital images (DIs) served as an objective reference method to determine food items consumed. Recalls were collected with a lunch recall questionnaire (LRQ) comprising an open-ended recall (OE-Q) and a pre-coded food group prompted recall (PC-Q). Individual interviews (INTs) were conducted successively. The number of food items was identified and accuracy was calculated as match rates (% identified by DIs and reported correctly) and intrusion rates (% not identified by DIs but reported) were determined. Setting and subjects Three Danish public schools from Copenhagen. A total of 114 Danish 11-year-old children, mean (SE) age=11.1 (0.03), and body mass index=18.2 (0.26). Results The reference (DIs) showed that girls consumed a higher number of food items than boys [mean (SE) 5.4 (0.25) vs. 4.6 (0.29) items (p=0.05)]. The number of food items recalled differed between genders with OE-Q recalls (p=0.005) only. Girls’ interview recalls were more accurate than boys’ with higher match rates (p=0.04) and lower intrusion rates (p=0.05). Match rates ranged from 67–90% and intrusion rates ranged from 13–39% with little differences between girls and boys using the OE-Q and PC-Q methods. Conclusion Dietary recall validation studies should not only consider match rates as an account of accuracy. Intrusions contribute to over-reporting in non-validation studies, and future studies should address recall accuracy and inaccuracies in relation to

  19. Examining Relative Age Effects in Fundamental Skill Proficiency in British Children Aged 6-11 Years.

    PubMed

    Birch, Samantha; Cummings, Laura; Oxford, Samuel W; Duncan, Michael J

    2016-10-01

    Birch, S, Cummings, L, Oxford, SW, and Duncan, MJ. Examining relative age effects in fundamental skill proficiency in British children aged 6-11 years. J Strength Cond Res 30(10): 2809-2815, 2016-The relative age effect (RAE) suggests that there is a clustering of birth dates just after the cutoff used for sports selection in age-grouped sports and that in such circumstances, relatively older sportspeople may enjoy maturational and physical advantages over their younger peers. Few studies have examined this issue in nonselective groups of children, and none have examined whether there is evidence of any RAE in skill performance. The aim of this study was to assess whether there were differences in fundamental movement skill (FMS) proficiency within children placed in age groups according to the school year. Six FMS (sprint, side gallop, balance, jump, catch, and throw) were assessed in 539 school children (258 boys and 281 girls) aged 6-11 years (mean age ± SD = 7.7 ± 1.7 years). We examined differences in these FMS between gender groups and children born in different quarters of the year after controlling for age and body mass index (BMI). For balance, chronological age was significant as a covariate (p = 0.0001) with increases in age associated with increases in balance. Boys had significantly higher sprint mastery compared with girls (p = 0.012), and increased BMI was associated with poorer sprint mastery (p = 0.001). Boys had higher catching mastery than girls (p = 0.003), and children born in Q1 had significantly greater catching mastery than those born in Q2 (p = 0.015), Q3 (p = 0.019), and Q4 (p = 0.01). Results for throwing mastery also indicated higher mastery in boys compared with girls (p = 0.013) and that children born in Q1 had higher throwing proficiency than those born in Q4 (p = 0.038). These results are important if coaches are basing sport selection on measures of skilled performance, particularly in object-control skills. Categorizing children

  20. IRIS Observation of a Sunspot and the Surrounding Plage Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    TIAN, H.; DeLuca, E. E.; Mcintosh, S. W.; Reeves, K. K.; McKillop, S.; Weber, M.; Saar, S.; Golub, L.; Testa, P.

    2013-12-01

    NASA's IRIS mission is providing high-cadence and high-resolution observations of the solar transition region and chromosphere. We present preliminary results from IRIS observation of a sunspot and the surrounding plage region. The major findings in this observation can be summarized as following: (1) The slit jaw images in the filters of 1400Å and 1330Å reveal the presence of many rapidly evolving fibril-like structures in the transition region for the first time. These thin and long structures mainly reside in the plage region. They could be strands of low-lying cool transition region loops or the transition region counterpart of chromospheric spicules. (2) The C II and Mg II line profiles are almost Gaussian in the sunspot umbra and clearly exhibit a deep reversal at the line center in the plage region, suggesting a greatly reduced opacity in the sunspot atmosphere. (3) Bidirectional jets are frequently occurring mainly in the plage region immediately outside the sunspot throughout the observation. Triple or double Gaussian fit to the line profiles of Si IV suggests a velocity as high as 100 km/s. These velocity values are of the same order of the Alfven speed in the transition region. (4)Three-minute oscillation is clearly present in the sunspot umbra. The oscillation is identified in not only the slit jaw images of 2796Å, 1400Å and 1330Å, but also in spectra of the bright Mg II, C II and Si IV lines. Strong non-linearity is clearly seen in the intensity and Doppler shift oscillations. Interestingly, the obvious increase of the line width only occurs at the times of largest blue shift. The correlated change of the intensity and Doppler shift suggests an upward propagating magneto-acoustic shock wave.

  1. Birth weight and cognitive function at age 11 years: the Scottish Mental Survey 1932

    PubMed Central

    Shenkin, S; Starr, J; Pattie, A; Rush, M; Whalley, L; Deary, I; PHARAOH, E. P.

    2001-01-01

    AIMS—To examine the relation between birth weight and cognitive function at age 11 years, and to examine whether this relation is independent of social class.
METHODS—Retrospective cohort study based on birth records from 1921 and cognitive function measured while at school at age 11 in 1932.Subjects were 985 live singletons born in the Edinburgh Royal Maternity and Simpson Memorial Hospital in 1921. Moray House Test scores from the Scottish Mental Survey 1932 were traced on 449of these children.
RESULTS—Mean score on Moray House Test increased from 30.6 at a birth weight of <2500 g to 44.7 at 4001-4500 g, after correcting for gestational age, maternal age, parity, social class, and legitimacy of birth. Multiple regression showed that 15.6% of the variance in Moray House Test score is contributed by a combination of social class (6.6%), birth weight (3.8%), child's exact age (2.4%), maternal parity (2.0%), and illegitimacy (1.5%). Structural equation modelling confirmed the independent contribution from each of these variables in predicting cognitive ability. A model in which birth weight acted as a mediator of social class had poor fit statistics.
CONCLUSION—In this 1921 birth cohort, social class and birth weight have independent effects on cognitive function at age 11. Future research will relate these childhood data to health and cognition in old age.

 PMID:11517097

  2. Hydration Deficit in 9- to 11-Year-Old Egyptian Children

    PubMed Central

    Gouda, Zaghloul; Zarea, Mohamed; El-Hennawy, Usama; Viltard, Mélanie; Lepicard, Eve; Hawili, Nasrine; Constant, Florence

    2015-01-01

    Background. Children who drink too little to meet their daily water requirements are likely to become dehydrated, and even mild dehydration can negatively affect health. This is even more important in Middle-Eastern countries where high temperatures increase the risk of dehydration. We assessed morning hydration status in a sample of 519 Egyptian schoolchildren (9-11 years old). Methods. Children completed a questionnaire on breakfast intakes and collected a urine sample after breakfast. Breakfast food and fluid nutritional composition was analyzed and urine osmolality was measured using osmometry. Results. The mean urine osmolality of children was 814 mOsmol/kg: >800 mOsmol/kg (57%) and >1000 mOsmol/kg (24.7%). Furthermore, the results showed that a total water intake of less than 400 mL was associated with a significant higher risk of dehydration. Surprisingly, 63% of the children skipped breakfast. Conclusions. The results showed that a majority of Egyptian schoolchildren arrive at school with a hydration deficit. These results highlight the fact that there is a need to educate schoolchildren about the importance of having a breakfast and adequate hydration. PMID:27335985

  3. Time knowledge acquisition in children aged 6 to 11 years and its relationship with numerical skills.

    PubMed

    Labrell, Florence; Mikaeloff, Yann; Perdry, Hervé; Dellatolas, Georges

    2016-03-01

    Acquisition of time knowledge (TK; the correct representation and use of time units) is linked to the development of numerical abilities, but this relationship has not been investigated in children. The current study examined the acquisition of TK and its association with numerical skills. A total of 105 children aged 6 to 11 years were interviewed with our Time Knowledge Questionnaire (TKQ), developed for purposes of this study, and the Zareki-R, a battery for the evaluation of number processing and mental calculation. The TKQ assessed conventional time knowledge (temporal orientation, temporal sequences, relationships between time units, and telling the time on a clock), estimation of longer durations related to birthday and life span, and estimation of the duration of the interview. Time knowledge increased with age, especially from 6 to 8 years, and was strongly linked to numerical skills. Regression analyses showed that four numerical components were implicated in TK: academic knowledge of numbers and number facts (e.g., reading Arabic numerals, mental calculation), number line estimation (e.g., correspondence between a number and a distance), contextual estimation (e.g., many/few leaves on a tree, children in a family), and numerical tasks involving verbal working memory (e.g., comparison of numbers presented orally). Numerical correlations with TK varied according to children's age; subtests based on academic knowledge of numbers, working memory, and number line estimation were linked with TK in the younger children, but only contextual estimation was associated with TK in the older children. PMID:26590852

  4. Prenatal Cocaine Exposure Alters Cortisol Stress Reactivity in 11 Year Old Children

    PubMed Central

    Lester, Barry M.; LaGasse, Linda L.; Shankaran, Seetha; Bada, Henrietta S.; Bauer, Charles R.; Lin, Richard; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary

    2011-01-01

    Objective Determine the association between prenatal cocaine exposure and postnatal environmental adversity on salivary cortisol stress reactivity in school aged children. Study design Subjects included 743 11 year old children (n=320 cocaine exposed; 423 comparison) followed since birth in a longitudinal prospective multisite study. Saliva samples were collected to measure cortisol at baseline and after a standardized procedure to induce psychological stress. Children were divided into those who showed an increase in cortisol from baseline to post stress and those who showed a decrease or blunted cortisol response. Covariates measured included site, birthweight, maternal pre and postnatal use of alcohol, tobacco or marijuana, social class, changes in caretakers, maternal depression and psychological symptoms, domestic and community violence, child abuse and quality of the home. Results With adjustment for confounding variables, cortisol reactivity to stress was more likely to be blunted in children with prenatal cocaine exposure. Cocaine exposed children exposed to domestic violence showed the strongest effects. Conclusion The combination of prenatal cocaine exposure and an adverse postnatal environment could down regulate the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPA) resulting in the blunted cortisol response to stress possibly increasing risk for later psychopathology and adult disease. PMID:20400094

  5. The EPICure Study: Association between Hemodynamics and Lung Function at 11 Years after Extremely Preterm Birth

    PubMed Central

    Bolton, Charlotte E.; Stocks, Janet; Hennessy, Enid; Cockcroft, John R.; Fawke, Joseph; Lum, Sooky; McEniery, Carmel M.; Wilkinson, Ian B.; Marlow, Neil

    2012-01-01

    Objective To investigate the relationship between disturbed lung function and large-artery hemodynamics in school-age children born extremely preterm (EP) (at 25 completed weeks of gestation or less). Study design This was a cross-sectional study of participants from the EPICure study, now aged 11 years (n = 66), and 86 age- and sex-matched term-born classmates. Spirometry parameters (including forced expiratory volume in 1 second), blood pressure, and augmentation index (AIx, a composite of arterial stiffness and global wave reflections) were measured. Results Compared with their classmates, the EP children had significantly impaired lung function, particularly those with neonatal bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Peripheral blood pressure did not differ significantly between the 2 groups, but AIx values were on average 5% higher (95% CI, 2%-8%) in the preterm infants, remaining significant after adjustment for potential confounders. Neonatal bronchopulmonary dysplasia status was not related to AIx. Lung function and maternal smoking were independently associated with AIx; AIx increased by 2.7% per z-score reduction in baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 second and by 4.9% in those whose mothers smoked during pregnancy. Conclusion The independent association between impaired lung function and cardiovascular physiology in early adolescence implies higher cardiovascular risk for children born EP, and suggests that prevention of chronic neonatal lung disease may be a priority in reducing later cardiovascular risk in preterm infants. PMID:22575246

  6. Picky eating during childhood: A longitudinal study to age 11-years

    PubMed Central

    Mascola, Anthony J.; Bryson, Susan W.

    2010-01-01

    Picky eating is a common disorder during childhood often causing considerable parental anxiety. This study examined the incidence, point prevalence, persistence and characteristics of picky eating in a prospective study of 120 children and their parents followed from 2 to 11 years. At any given age between 13% and 22% of the children were reported to be picky eaters. Incidence declined over time whereas point prevalence increased indicating that picky eating is often a chronic problem with 40% having a duration of more than 2-years. Those with longer duration differed from those with short duration having more strong likes and dislikes of food and not accepting new foods. Parents of picky eaters were more likely to report that their children consumed a limited variety of foods, required food prepared in specific ways, expressed stronger likes and dislikes for food, and threw tantrums when denied foods. They were also more likely to report struggles over feeding, preparing special meals, and commenting on their child’s eating. Hence, picky eating is a prevalent concern of parents and may remain so through childhood. It appears to be a relatively stable trait reflecting an individual eating style. However no significant effects on growth were observed. PMID:20850060

  7. Hydration Deficit in 9- to 11-Year-Old Egyptian Children.

    PubMed

    Gouda, Zaghloul; Zarea, Mohamed; El-Hennawy, Usama; Viltard, Mélanie; Lepicard, Eve; Hawili, Nasrine; Constant, Florence

    2015-01-01

    Background. Children who drink too little to meet their daily water requirements are likely to become dehydrated, and even mild dehydration can negatively affect health. This is even more important in Middle-Eastern countries where high temperatures increase the risk of dehydration. We assessed morning hydration status in a sample of 519 Egyptian schoolchildren (9-11 years old). Methods. Children completed a questionnaire on breakfast intakes and collected a urine sample after breakfast. Breakfast food and fluid nutritional composition was analyzed and urine osmolality was measured using osmometry. Results. The mean urine osmolality of children was 814 mOsmol/kg: >800 mOsmol/kg (57%) and >1000 mOsmol/kg (24.7%). Furthermore, the results showed that a total water intake of less than 400 mL was associated with a significant higher risk of dehydration. Surprisingly, 63% of the children skipped breakfast. Conclusions. The results showed that a majority of Egyptian schoolchildren arrive at school with a hydration deficit. These results highlight the fact that there is a need to educate schoolchildren about the importance of having a breakfast and adequate hydration. PMID:27335985

  8. Anemia and Iron Deficiency in Vietnamese Children, 6 to 11 Years Old.

    PubMed

    Le Nguyen Bao, Khanh; Tran Thuy, Nga; Nguyen Huu, Chinh; Khouw, Ilse; Deurenberg, Paul

    2016-07-01

    In a population sample of 385 children, 6 to 11 years old, venous blood parameters-hemoglobin (Hb), ferritin, red blood cell count (RBC), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), C-reactive protein (CRP), and α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP)-were determined to get insight into the iron status. The prevalence of anemia was 11.4%; 5.6% had iron deficiency (ID), whereas 0.4% had ID anemia. Correction for inflammation based on CRP and AGP did not markedly change the overall prevalence of ID and ID anemia. Stunted children had lower Hb and ferritin values compared with nonstunted children, and thin children had lower values compared with normal-weight or overweight and obese children. Many nonanemic children had alert values for RBC, MCV, MCH, and MCHC. It is concluded that although the prevalence of anemia is of the magnitude of a mild public health problem, the iron status of many nonanemic children is borderline, as indicated by a high number of children with low values for red blood cytology. PMID:27052301

  9. Facial reconstruction of an 11-year-old female resident of 430 BC Athens.

    PubMed

    Papagrigorakis, Manolis J; Synodinos, Philippos N; Antoniadis, Aristomenis; Maravelakis, Emmanuel; Toulas, Panagiotis; Nilsson, Oscar; Baziotopoulou-Valavani, Effie

    2011-01-01

    Although modern standards of ideal proportions and facial esthetics are based mostly on observations of human faces as depicted in Classical Greek masterpieces of art, the real faces of ordinary ancient Greeks have, until now, remained elusive and subject to the imagination. Objective forensic techniques of facial reconstruction have never been applied before, because human skeletal material from Classical Greece has been extremely scarce, since most decent burials of that time required cremation. Here, the authors show stage by stage the facial reconstruction of an 11-year-old girl whose skull was unearthed in excellent condition from a mass grave with victims of the Plague that struck Athens of 430 bc. The original skull was replicated via three-dimensional modeling and rapid prototyping techniques. The reconstruction followed the Manchester method, laying the facial tissues from the surface of the skull outward by using depth-marker pegs as thickness guides. The shape, size, and position of the eyes, ears, nose, and mouth were determined according to features of the underlying skeletal tissues, whereas the hairstyle followed the fashion of the time. This is the first case of facial reconstruction of a layperson residing in Athens of the Golden Age of Pericles. It is ironic, however, that this unfortunate girl who lived such a short life in ancient Athens, will now, 2500 years later, have the chance to travel and be universally recognizable in a world much bigger than anybody in ancient Athens could have ever imagined. PMID:20936971

  10. Diagnosis and Treatment of Odontogenic Cutaneous Sinus Tracts in an 11-Year-Old Boy

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Ke; Liang, Yun; Xiong, Huacui

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Odontogenic cutaneous sinus tracts (OCSTs) are generally primarily misdiagnosed and inappropriately treated by virtue of their rarity and the absence of dental symptoms. Accurate diagnosis and treatment and the elimination of the source of infection can reduce the incidence of complications and relieve the pain of the patient. In this case report, we present the case of an 11-year-old patient with an apparent abscess but an unobvious draining sinus tract in his left cheek. Intraorally, a glass-ionomer-cement filling on the occlusal surface of the left mandibular first molar (tooth 36) was noted. Radiographic examination revealed a radiopaque mass inside the crown and pulp chamber and an irregular, radiolucent periapical lesion surrounding the distal root apex. He was diagnosed with an OCTS secondary to a periapical abscess of tooth 36. Precise root canal therapy (RCT) and chronic granuloma debridement was performed; 6 months later, the abscess and sinus had healed completely, and the periapical lesion had resolved. Odontogenic cutaneous sinus tracts are uncommon in the clinic. This case report reminds us of the significance of OCSTs and provides some implications for their diagnosis and treatment. PMID:27196471

  11. Eating attitudes in a group of 11-year-old urban South African girls

    PubMed Central

    Petersen, Carmen D; Norris, Shane A; Pettifor, John M; MacKeown, Jenny M

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To explore and describe eating attitudes in early pubertal 11-year-old black and white South African girls in an urban environment undergoing transition. Design The study was designed as a cross-sectional baseline initiative within a longitudinal study. Subjects Two hundred and two subjects were randomly selected; 54 were white and 148 black. Methods Subjects completed questionnaires, and anthropometric measurements were taken. Outcome measures Variables included body mass index (BMI), eating attitudes (EAT score), dietary intake, socio-economic status, pubertal status and level of physical activity. Results As expected, the prevalence rate of abnormal eating attitudes in this group of girls was low (1%). No significant ethnic differences were found in the total EAT scores. White participants displayed greater oral control, while their black peers displayed greater tendencies toward dieting (p = 0.05). Girls who scored higher on the dieting subscale had a larger body size and were more inactive than low dieting scorers (p = 0.05). A relationship between body size measurements and dietary intake was found only in black girls. Traditionally a larger figure is accepted in black culture. However our data suggest a move away from this, indicating acculturation, as awareness of increased body size significantly influenced dieting attitudes. However, scores were within the normal range. Conclusions There is early evidence suggesting the impact of societal transition on young black girls with regard to eating attitudes. Black girls in this age group are adopting Western ideals of beauty and thinness. PMID:20526468

  12. Sludge accumulation in shallow maturation ponds treating UASB reactor effluent: results after 11 years of operation.

    PubMed

    Possmoser-Nascimento, Thiago Emanuel; Rodrigues, Valéria Antônia Justino; von Sperling, Marcos; Vasel, Jean-Luc

    2014-01-01

    Polishing ponds are natural systems used for the post-treatment of upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) effluents. They are designed as maturation ponds and their main goal is the removal of pathogens and nitrogen and an additional removal of residual organic matter from the UASB reactor. This study aimed to evaluate organic matter and suspended solids removal as well as sludge accumulation in two shallow polishing ponds in series treating sanitary effluent from a UASB reactor with a population equivalent of 200 inhabitants in Brazil, operating since 2002. For this evaluation, long-term monitoring of biochemical oxygen demand and total suspended solids and bathymetric surveys have been undertaken. The ponds showed an irregular distribution of total solids mass in the sludge layer of the two ponds, with mean accumulation values of 0.020 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) and 0.004 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in Ponds 1 and 2, leading to around 40% and 8% of the liquid volume occupied by the sediments after 11 years of operation. The first pond showed better efficiency in relation to organic matter removal, although its contribution was limited, due to algal growth. No simple input-output mass balance of solids can be applied to the ponds due to algal growth in the liquid phase and sludge digestion in the sludge.

  13. Physical training improves body composition of black obese 7- to 11-year-old girls.

    PubMed

    Gutin, B; Cucuzzo, N; Islam, S; Smith, C; Moffatt, R; Pargman, D

    1995-07-01

    We determined the effect of supervised physical training without dietary intervention, on body composition of obese girls. The subjects were 25 obese 7- to 11-year-old black girls, divided into physical training and lifestyle education groups which were comparable on baseline body composition; 22 girls finished all aspects of the study. Twelve girls engaged in aerobic training (10 weeks, 5 days/week) while 10 engaged in weekly lifestyle discussions without formal physical training. Total body and regional body composition were measured with dual energy x-ray absorptiometry, skinfolds and circumferences. Aerobic fitness was measured by heart rate response to submaximal treadmill exercise. The physical training group attended 94% of scheduled sessions and kept their heart rates at an average of 163 bpm for 28 minutes/session. The lifestyle group attended 95% of their sessions; they remained stable in aerobic fitness and most body composition measurements. The physical training group showed a significant improvement in aerobic fitness and a significant decline of 1.4% body fat. Skinfold and circumference indices of fatness also declined significantly in the training group. We conclude that controlled physical training, without dietary intervention, improved the fitness and body composition of obese black girls.

  14. A Comparison of Wolf's Reconstructed Record of Annual Sunspot Number with Schwabe's Observed Record of 'Clusters of Spots' for the Interval of 1826-1868

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    On the basis of a comparison of Wolf s reconstructed record of yearly averages of sunspot number against Schwabe's observations of yearly counts of 'clusters of spots' (i.e., the yearly number of newly appearing sunspot groups) during the interval of 1826-1868, one infers that Wolf probably misplaced and underestimated the maximum amplitude for cycle 7. In particular, Schwabe's data suggest that the maximum amplitude for cycle 7 occurred in 1828 rather than in 1830 and that it measured about 86.3 (+/-13.9; i.e., the 90% confidence level) rather than 70.4. If true, then, the ascent and descent durations for cycle 7 should be 5 years each instead of 7 and 3 years, respectively. Likewise, on the basis of the same comparison, one infers that the maximums for cycles 8 and 9, occurring, respectively, in 1837 and 1848, were of comparable size (approximately 130), although, quite possibly, the one for cycle 8 may have been smaller. Lastly, presuming the continued action of the 'odd-even' effect (i.e., the odd-numbered following cycle of Hale even-odd cycle pairs having a maximum amplitude that is of comparable or larger size than the even-numbered leading cycle) during the earlier pre-modem era of cycles 6-9, one infers that Wolf's estimate for the size of cycle 6 probably is too low.

  15. Analytical Model of an Asymmetric Sunspot with a Steady Plasma Flow in its Penumbra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solov'ev, A. A.; Kirichek, E. A.

    2016-08-01

    A new exact analytical solution to the stationary problem of ideal magnetohydrodynamics is derived for an unipolar asymmetric sunspot immersed in a realistic solar atmosphere. The radial and vertical profiles of pressure, plasma density, and temperature in the visible layers of the sunspot are calculated. The reduction in plasma density in the magnetic funnel of the sunspot, corresponding to the Wilson depression, is also obtained. The magnetic structure of the sunspot is given analytically in a realistic way: a part of the magnetic flux of the sunspot approaches the surrounding photosphere at the outer edge of the penumbra. The magnetic field of the sunspot is not assumed to be axially symmetric. For the first time, the angular dependence of the physical variables in this model allows us to simulate not only a deviation from the circular shape of the sunspot, but also a fine filamentary structure of the sunspot penumbra. The Alfvén Mach number (the ratio of the plasma speed to the Alfvén speed) is zero at the center of the sunspot and rises slowly toward the periphery of the sunspot; this corresponds to the structure of the Evershed flow in the penumbra. The Evershed flow in our model is mainly concentrated in dark penumbral filaments, as is observed.

  16. Association between obesity and asthma in 4-11 year old children in the UK

    PubMed Central

    Figueroa-Munoz, J; Chinn, S; Rona, R

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND—There is evidence of a positive association between asthma and obesity in adults and in children. We investigated, in a large sample of English and Scottish primary school children, whether there is a consistent association between fatness and asthma symptoms in Britain.
METHODS—A cross sectional analysis was made of 18 218 children aged 4-11 years who participated in the 1993 or 1994 surveys of the National Study of Health and Growth (NSHG). Children belonged either to English or Scottish representative samples, or an English inner city sample. Asthma attacks in the previous year, occasional wheeze, or persistent wheeze were the symptoms used in the analysis. Body mass index (BMI) and the sum of triceps and subscapular skinfolds converted to standard deviation scores (SDS) were used to assess levels of fatness.
RESULTS—A total of 14 908 children (81.8%) were included in the analysis. In the multiple logistic analysis BMI and asthma (asthma attacks or wheeze) were associated in the representative sample (OR for the comparison of the 10th and 90th centiles of BMI 1.28,95% CI 1.11 to 1.48), but sum of skinfolds was unrelated to asthma symptoms in most analyses. The association between asthma and BMI was stronger in girls than in boys in the inner city sample, but less convincingly in the representative sample.
CONCLUSIONS—Levels of obesity are associated with asthma symptoms regardless of ethnicity. The association is more consistent for BMI than for sum of skinfolds, partly because obese children are more advanced in their maturation than other children. There is some evidence that, as in adults, the association is stronger in girls than in boys, but only in the multiethnic inner city sample.

 PMID:11209102

  17. Somatotype in 6-11-year-old Italian and Estonian schoolchildren.

    PubMed

    Ventrella, A R; Semproli, S; Jürimäe, J; Toselli, S; Claessens, A L; Jürimäe, T; Brasili, P

    2008-01-01

    The study of somatotypes can contribute to the understanding of variability in human body build. The aim of this study was to compare the somatotypes of Italian and Estonian schoolchildren in order to evaluate factors that might lead to variability in somatotypes. The sample consisted of 762 Italian and 366 Estonian children aged 6-11 years. They were somatotyped by the Heath-Carter anthropometric method. Data on organised extra-curricular physical activity and hours of weekly training were also collected. One-way ANOVA was used to evaluate country-related variations of somatotype in each age/sex group, while factorial ANOVA was used to test the influence of country and organised physical activity on the variability of the anthropometric characteristics and somatotype components. There are significant differences in mean somatotypes between the Italian and Estonian children in many age classes and a different constitutional trend in children from the two different countries is observed. The Italian children are more endomorphic and less mesomorphic and ectomorphic than the Estonian children. On the other hand, it emerges from factorial ANOVA, that the somatotype components do not present significant variations related to organised physical activity and to the interaction between the country of origin and sport practice. Moreover, the results of the forward stepwise discriminant analyses show that mesomorphy is the best discriminator between the two countries, followed by ectomorphy. Our findings suggest that the observed differences between Italian and Estonian children could be related mainly to country rather than to the practice of organised physical activity in the two countries.

  18. Manual Control Age and Sex Differences in 4 to 11 Year Old Children

    PubMed Central

    Flatters, Ian; Hill, Liam J. B.; Williams, Justin H. G.; Barber, Sally E.; Mon-Williams, Mark

    2014-01-01

    To what degree does being male or female influence the development of manual skills in pre-pubescent children? This question is important because of the emphasis placed on developing important new manual skills during this period of a child's education (e.g. writing, drawing, using computers). We investigated age and sex-differences in the ability of 422 children to control a handheld stylus. A task battery deployed using tablet PC technology presented interactive visual targets on a computer screen whilst simultaneously recording participant's objective kinematic responses, via their interactions with the on-screen stimuli using the handheld stylus. The battery required children use the stylus to: (i) make a series of aiming movements, (ii) trace a series of abstract shapes and (iii) track a moving object. The tasks were not familiar to the children, allowing measurement of a general ability that might be meaningfully labelled ‘manual control’, whilst minimising culturally determined differences in experience (as much as possible). A reliable interaction between sex and age was found on the aiming task, with girls' movement times being faster than boys in younger age groups (e.g. 4–5 years) but with this pattern reversing in older children (10–11 years). The improved performance in older boys on the aiming task is consistent with prior evidence of a male advantage for gross-motor aiming tasks, which begins to emerge during adolescence. A small but reliable sex difference was found in tracing skill, with girls showing a slightly higher level of performance than boys irrespective of age. There were no reliable sex differences between boys and girls on the tracking task. Overall, the findings suggest that prepubescent girls are more likely to have superior manual control abilities for performing novel tasks. However, these small population differences do not suggest that the sexes require different educational support whilst developing their manual skills

  19. Nutritional anaemia in 11-year-old schoolchildren in the western Cape.

    PubMed

    Lamparelli, R D; van der Westhuyzen, J; Steyn, N P; Baynes, R D; MacFarlane, B J; Green, A; Bothwell, T H

    1988-04-16

    A nutritional anaemia survey was carried out on 610 11-year-old coloured, black and white schoolchildren in urban and rural communities in the western Cape. The mean (+/- 1 SD) haemoglobin concentration was 13.0 +/- 1.2 g/dl. The coloured and black subgroups considered together had a significantly lower mean haemoglobin concentration than the white subgroup (12.8 +/- 1.2 g/dl v. 13.4 +/- 1.0 g/dl) (F = 37.47; P less than 0.0001). The urban population as a whole had a significantly lower geometric mean (1 SD range) serum ferritin concentration than the rural population (25.6 (13.5-48.6) micrograms/l v. 34.1 (21.3-54.6) micrograms/l) (F = 42.94; P less than 0.0001). The lowest geometric mean serum ferritin values were found in the urban coloured (23.1 (11.5-46.4) micrograms/l) and urban black schoolchildren (23.7 (13.2-42.6) micrograms/l), with figures of less than 12 micrograms/l in 11.7% and 12.5% respectively. Although 28% of the children had red cell folate values below the recommended lower limit of normal (175 ng/ml), probability plot analysis of the data suggested that folate deficiency was not a major problem in the study population. The calculated daily iron and folate intakes were below the age-related recommended dietary allowance (RDA) in all the subgroups, yet anaemia was relatively uncommon. These findings suggest that the RDA values are too high. Overall the prevalence of nutritional anaemia was low and only the urban coloured subgroup showed significant second populations with low haemoglobin and serum ferritin measurements.

  20. Levels of selected urinary metabolites of volatile organic compounds among children aged 6-11 years.

    PubMed

    Jain, Ram B

    2015-10-01

    Data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for the years 2011-2012 were used to evaluate variability in the observed levels of 20 urinary metabolites of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by age, gender, and race/ethnicity among children aged 6-11 years. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke was positively associated with the levels of selected metabolites of acrylonitrile, 1,3-butadiene, cyanide, and propylene oxide in a dose-response manner. Levels of the selected metabolites of acrolein, acrylonitrile, 1,3-butadiene, styrene, toluene, and xylene decreased with increase in age. Levels of 1-bromopropane decreased with number of rooms in the house but the reverse was true for 1,3-butadiene, carbon-disulfide, and N,N-dimethylformamide. Levels of most of the 20 metabolites did not vary with gender. Non-Hispanic white children had higher adjusted levels of N-Acetyl-S-(3,4-dihydroxybutyl)-L-cysteine (DHBMA), N-Acetyl-S-(N-methylcarbamoyl)-L-cysteine (AMCC), and phenylglyoxylic acid (PGA) than non-Hispanic black children. Non-Hispanic white children had statistically significantly higher adjusted levels of N-Acetyl-S-(2-carbamoyl-2-hydroxyethyl)-L-cysteine (GAMA), trans, trans-Muconic acid (MU), and N-Acetyl-S-(N-methylcarbamoyl)-L-cysteine (AMCC) than non-Hispanic Asian children but statistically significantly lower levels of N-Acetyl-S-(n-propyl)-L-cysteine (BPMA) than non-Hispanic Asian children. Non-Hispanic Asian children had the lowest levels of 13 of the 20 metabolites among four major racial/ethnic groups but highest levels for three metabolites. For selected metabolites of acrolein, acrylamide, acrylonitrile-vinyl chloride-ethylene oxide, benzene, 1,3-butadien, crotonaldehyde, cyanide, ethylbenzene-styrene, and toluene, children had statistically significantly higher levels than nonsmoking adults. These results demonstrate how vulnerable children are to being exposed to harmful chemicals like VOCs in their own homes. PMID:26257031

  1. Trauma, mental health, and intergenerational associations in Kosovar Families 11 years after the war

    PubMed Central

    Schick, Matthis; Morina, Naser; Klaghofer, Richard; Schnyder, Ulrich; Müller, Julia

    2013-01-01

    Background While there is a considerable amount of literature addressing consequences of trauma in veterans and holocaust survivors, war and postwar civilian populations, particularly children, are still understudied. Evidence regarding intergenerational effects of trauma in families is inconsistent. Objective To shed light on intergenerational aspects of trauma-related mental health problems among families 11 years after the Kosovo war. Method In a cross-sectional study, a paired sample of 51 randomly selected triplets (school-aged child, mother, father, N=153) of Kosovar families was investigated with regard to trauma exposure, posttraumatic stress (UCLA Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale), anxiety (Spence Children's Anxiety Scale, Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25), and depressive symptoms (Depressionsinventar für Kinder und Jugendliche [DIKJ; depression inventory for children and adolescents], Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25). Results Considerable trauma exposure and high prevalence rates of clinically relevant posttraumatic stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms were found in both parents and children. While strong correlations were found between children's depressive symptoms and paternal posttraumatic stress, anxiety and depressive symptoms, maternal symptoms did not correlate with their children's. In multiple regression analyses, only posttraumatic stress symptoms of fathers were significantly related with children's depressive symptoms. Conclusion Eleven years after the Kosovo war, the presence of posttraumatic stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms in civilian adults and their children is still substantial. As symptoms of parents and children are associated, mental health problems of close ones should be actively screened and accounted for in comprehensive treatment plans, using a systemic approach. Future research should include longitudinal studies conducting multivariate analyses with larger sample sizes in order to investigate indicators, causal and

  2. Illegal Substance Use among Italian High School Students: Trends over 11 Years (1999–2009)

    PubMed Central

    Molinaro, Sabrina; Siciliano, Valeria; Curzio, Olivia; Denoth, Francesca; Salvadori, Stefano; Mariani, Fabio

    2011-01-01

    Purpose To monitor changes in habits in drug use among Italian high school students. Methods Cross-sectional European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD) carried out in Italy annually for 11 years (1999–2009) with representative samples of youth attending high school. The sample size considered ranges from 15,752 to 41,365 students and response rate ranged from 85.5% to 98.6%. Data were analyzed to obtain measures of life-time prevalence (LT), use in the last year (LY), use in the last 30 days (LM), frequent use. Comparisons utilized difference in proportion tests. Tests for linear trends in proportion were performed using the Royston p trend test. Results When the time-averaged value was considered, cannabis (30% LT) was the most, and heroin the least (2%) frequently used, with cocaine (5%), hallucinogens (2%) and stimulants (2%) in between. A clear gender gap is evident for all drugs, more obvious for hallucinogens (average M/F LY prevalence ratio 2, range 1.7–2.4, p<0.05), less for cannabis (average M/F LY prevalence ratio 1.3, range 1.2–1.5, p<0.05). Data shows a change in trend between 2005 and 2008; in 2006 the trend for cannabis use and availability dropped and the price rose, while from 2005 cocaine and stimulant use prevalence showed a substantial increase and the price went down. After 2008 use of all substances seems to have decreased. Conclusions Drug use is widespread among students in Italy, with cannabis being the most and heroin the least prevalent. Girls are less vulnerable than boys to illegal drug use. In recent years, a decrease in heroin use is overbalanced by a marked rise in hallucinogen and stimulant use. PMID:21695199

  3. Drunkenness and heavy drinking among 11year olds - Findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Yvonne; Britton, Annie; Cable, Noriko; Sacker, Amanda; Watt, Richard G

    2016-09-01

    Heavy drinking among young people is linked to negative consequences including other risky behaviours, educational failure and premature mortality. There is a lack of research examining factors that influence heavy and binge drinking in early adolescence as prior work has focused on older teenagers. The objective of this paper was to identify individual and family factors associated with drunkenness and episodes of heavy drinking in early adolescence. We analysed data on 11,046 11year olds from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for associations. 1.2% of participants reported having been drunk, and 0.6% reported having had 5 or more drinks in a single episode. Participants who reported drunkenness were more likely to be boys (1.6% vs 0.7%, p<0.01), to have socioemotional difficulties (2.6% vs 1.0%, p<0.001), to report antisocial behaviours (none=0.6%, 1=2.0%, 2 or more=7.0%, p<0.001), report truancy (6.0% vs 1.0%, p<0.001), smoke cigarettes (12.0% vs 0.8%, p<0.001). Parental drinking did not appear to be associated with the odds of drunkenness. Associated with higher odds of drunkenness were: having friends who drank (OR=5.17); having positive expectancies towards alcohol (OR 2+=2.02); ever having smoked cigarettes (OR=5.32); the mother-child relationship not being close (OR=2.17). Associated with a reduced odds of drunkenness was having a heightened perception of harm from drinking 1-2 drinks daily (OR - some risk=0.48, great risk=0.40). Our findings support policies aimed at multiple levels, starting in the preadolescent years, which incorporate individual, family, and peer factors. PMID:27413004

  4. Impact of Clinical Pharmacist on the Pediatric Intensive Care Practice: An 11-Year Tertiary Center Experience

    PubMed Central

    Crabtree, Heidi M.; Fryer, Karen R.; Graner, Kevin K.; Arteaga, Grace M.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: With increasing complexity of critical care medicine comes an increasing need for multidisciplinary involvement in care. In many institutions, pharmacists are an integral part of this team, but long-term data on the interventions performed by pharmacists and their effects on patient care and outcomes are limited. We aimed to describe the role of pediatric clinical pharmacists in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) practice. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of pharmacy interventions in the PICU at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, from 2003-2013, with a distinct period of increased pharmacist presence in the PICU from 2008 onward. We compared demographic and outcome data on patients who did and who did not have pharmacy interventions during 2 periods (2003–2007 and 2008–2013). RESULTS: We identified 27,773 total interventions by pharmacists during the 11-year period, of which 79.8% were accepted by the clinical team. These interventions were made on 10,963 unique PICU admissions and prevented 5867 order entry errors. Pharmacists' interventions increased year over year, including a significant change in 2008. Patients who required pharmacy involvement were younger, sicker, and had longer intensive care unit, hospital, and ventilator duration. Average central line infections and central line entry rates decreased significantly over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Increased pharmacist presence in the PICU is associated with increased interventions and prevention of adverse drug events. Pharmacist participation during rounds and order entry substantially improved the care of critically sick children and should be encouraged. PMID:26380569

  5. Levels of selected urinary metabolites of volatile organic compounds among children aged 6-11 years.

    PubMed

    Jain, Ram B

    2015-10-01

    Data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for the years 2011-2012 were used to evaluate variability in the observed levels of 20 urinary metabolites of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by age, gender, and race/ethnicity among children aged 6-11 years. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke was positively associated with the levels of selected metabolites of acrylonitrile, 1,3-butadiene, cyanide, and propylene oxide in a dose-response manner. Levels of the selected metabolites of acrolein, acrylonitrile, 1,3-butadiene, styrene, toluene, and xylene decreased with increase in age. Levels of 1-bromopropane decreased with number of rooms in the house but the reverse was true for 1,3-butadiene, carbon-disulfide, and N,N-dimethylformamide. Levels of most of the 20 metabolites did not vary with gender. Non-Hispanic white children had higher adjusted levels of N-Acetyl-S-(3,4-dihydroxybutyl)-L-cysteine (DHBMA), N-Acetyl-S-(N-methylcarbamoyl)-L-cysteine (AMCC), and phenylglyoxylic acid (PGA) than non-Hispanic black children. Non-Hispanic white children had statistically significantly higher adjusted levels of N-Acetyl-S-(2-carbamoyl-2-hydroxyethyl)-L-cysteine (GAMA), trans, trans-Muconic acid (MU), and N-Acetyl-S-(N-methylcarbamoyl)-L-cysteine (AMCC) than non-Hispanic Asian children but statistically significantly lower levels of N-Acetyl-S-(n-propyl)-L-cysteine (BPMA) than non-Hispanic Asian children. Non-Hispanic Asian children had the lowest levels of 13 of the 20 metabolites among four major racial/ethnic groups but highest levels for three metabolites. For selected metabolites of acrolein, acrylamide, acrylonitrile-vinyl chloride-ethylene oxide, benzene, 1,3-butadien, crotonaldehyde, cyanide, ethylbenzene-styrene, and toluene, children had statistically significantly higher levels than nonsmoking adults. These results demonstrate how vulnerable children are to being exposed to harmful chemicals like VOCs in their own homes.

  6. Identification of possible intense historical geomagnetic storms using combined sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willis, D. M.; Armstrong, G. M.; Ault, C. E.; Stephenson, F. R.

    2005-03-01

    Comprehensive catalogues of ancient sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia are used to identify possible intense historical geomagnetic storms in the interval 210 BC-AD 1918. There are about 270 entries in the sunspot catalogue and about 1150 entries in the auroral catalogue. Special databases have been constructed in which the scientific information in these two catalogues is placed in specified fields. For the purposes of this study, an historical geomagnetic storm is defined in terms of an auroral observation that is apparently associated with a particular sunspot observation, in the sense that the auroral observation occurred within several days of the sunspot observation. More precisely, a selection criterion is formulated for the automatic identification of such geomagnetic storms, using the oriental records stored in the sunspot and auroral databases. The selection criterion is based on specific assumptions about the duration of sunspot visibility with the unaided eye, the likely range of heliographic longitudes of an energetic solar feature, and the likely range of transit times for ejected solar plasma to travel from the Sun to the Earth. This selection criterion results in the identification of nineteen putative historical geomagnetic storms, although two of these storms are spurious in the sense that there are two examples of a single sunspot observation being associated with two different auroral observations separated by more than half a (synodic) solar rotation period. The literary and scientific reliabilities of the East Asian sunspot and auroral records that define the nineteen historical geomagnetic storms are discussed in detail in a set of appendices. A possible time sequence of events is presented for each geomagnetic storm, including possible dates for both the central meridian passage of the sunspot and the occurrence of the energetic solar feature, as well as likely transit times for the ejected solar plasma. European telescopic

  7. Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population.

    PubMed

    Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

    2015-01-01

    The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km(2) yr(-1) since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km(2) delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains ("archeological silence"). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region.

  8. Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population

    PubMed Central

    Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

    2015-01-01

    The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr−1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region. PMID:26246410

  9. Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

    2015-08-01

    The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr-1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region.

  10. Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population.

    PubMed

    Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

    2015-01-01

    The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km(2) yr(-1) since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km(2) delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains ("archeological silence"). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region. PMID:26246410

  11. Anticipating Cycle 24 Minimum and Its Consequences

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of the 12-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number (R) through November 2006, cycle 23 has persisted for 126 mo, having had a minimum of 8.0 in May 1996, a peak of 120.8 in April 2000, and an ascent duration of 47 mo. In November 2006, the 12-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number was 12.7, a value just outside the upper observed envelope of sunspot minimum values for the most recent cycles 16-23 (range 3.4-12.3), but within the 90-percent prediction interval (7.8 +/- 6.7). The first spotless day during the decline of cycle 23 occurred in January 2004, and the first occurrence of 10 or more and 20 or more spotless days was February 2006 and April 2007, respectively, inferring that sunspot minimum for cycle 24 is imminent. Through May 2007, 121 spotless days have accumulated. In terms of the weighted mean latitude (weighed by spot area) (LAT) and the highest observed latitude spot (HLS) in November 2006, 12-mo moving averages of these parameters measured 7.9 and 14.6 deg, respectively, these values being the lowest values yet observed during the decline of cycle 23 and being below corresponding mean values found for cycles 16-23. As yet, no high-latitude new-cycle spots have been seen nor has there been an upturn in LAT and HLS, these conditions having always preceded new cycle minimum by several months for past cycles. Together, these findings suggest that cycle 24 s minimum amplitude still lies well beyond November 2006. This implies that cycle 23 s period either will lie in the period "gap" (127-134 mo), a first for a sunspot cycle, or it will be longer than 134 mo, thus making cycle 23 a long-period cycle (like cycle 20) and indicating that cycle 24 s minimum will occur after July 2007. Should cycle 23 prove to be a cycle of longer period, a consequence might be that the maximum amplitude for cycle 24 may be smaller than previously predicted.

  12. Modelling the Longitudinal Asymmetry in Sunspot Emergence: The Role of the Wilson Depression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, F.; Fletcher, L.; Dalla, S.; Marshall, S.

    2009-11-01

    The distributions of sunspot longitude at first appearance and at disappearance display an east-west asymmetry that results from a reduction in visibility as one moves from disk centre to the limb. To first order, this is explicable in terms of simple geometrical foreshortening. However, the centre-to-limb visibility variation is much larger than that predicted by foreshortening. Sunspot visibility is also known to be affected by the Wilson effect: the apparent ‘dish’ shape of the sunspot photosphere caused by the temperature-dependent variation of the geometrical position of the τ=1 layer. In this article we investigate the role of the Wilson effect on the sunspot appearance distributions, deducing a mean depth for the umbral τ=1 layer of 500 - 1500 km. This is based on the comparison of observations of sunspot longitude distribution and Monte Carlo simulations of sunspot appearance using different models for spot growth rate, growth time and depth of Wilson depression.

  13. Liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma. Results of 229 consecutive patients during 11 years.

    PubMed Central

    Nagasue, N; Kohno, H; Chang, Y C; Taniura, H; Yamanoi, A; Uchida, M; Kimoto, T; Takemoto, Y; Nakamura, T; Yukaya, H

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study analyzed the results in 229 patients with primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who were treated by radical hepatic resection in the past 11 years. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Due to marked advances in diagnostic and therapeutic methods, the therapeutic strategy for HCC has changed significantly. However, there are still many problems to be solved when hepatic resection is to be performed for HCC associated with chronic liver disease. A satisfactory result may be possible only when all of accurate operative indication, skillful surgical technique, and sophisticated postoperative management are met. METHODS: There were 188 men and 41 women. Age ranged from 32 to 79 years averaging 60.8. Underlying cirrhosis of the liver was found in 177 patients, and chronic hepatitis was found in 47 instances. Before surgery, 114 patients had 157 associated conditions; diabetes mellitus in 66, esophageal varices in 42, cholelithiasis in 22, peptic ulcer in 12, and miscellaneous in 15 cases. In addition to various types of hepatic resection, 69 patients underwent concomitant operations such as cholecystectomy, the Warren shunt, splenectomy, partial gastrectomy, and so forth. RESULTS: The 30-day (operative) mortality rate was 7.0%, and there were eight additional late deaths (3.5%). Child's class, bromosulphalein (BSP) test, and the estimated blood loss during surgery were good predictors for operative death. The cumulative 5- and 10-year survival rates for all patients were 26.4% and 19.4%, respectively. At present, 110 patients are alive; 2 more than 10 years and 21 more than 5 years. Younger age, absence of cirrhosis, smaller tumor, and postoperative chemotherapy were associated with increased survival. CONCLUSIONS: The results of hepatic resection in 229 patients with HCC were analyzed. Child's class, BSP test, and blood loss during surgery were good predictors for operative death. The 5- and 10-year survival rates were 26.4% and 19.4%, respectively. Age

  14. FLUOR HANFORD (FH) MAKES CLEANUP A REALITY IN NEARLY 11 YEARS AT HANFORD

    SciTech Connect

    GERBER, M.S.

    2007-05-24

    For nearly 11 years, Fluor Hanford has been busy cleaning up the legacy of nuclear weapons production at one of the Department of Energy's (DOE'S) major sites in the United States. As prime nuclear waste cleanup contractor at the vast Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state, Fluor Hanford has changed the face of cleanup. Fluor beginning on October 1, 1996, Hanford Site cleanup was primarily a ''paper exercise.'' The Tri-Party Agreement, officially called the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order - the edict governing cleanup among the DOE, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Washington state - was just seven years old. Milestones mandated in the agreement up until then had required mainly waste characterization, reporting, and planning, with actual waste remediation activities off in the future. Real work, accessing waste ''in the field'' - or more literally in huge underground tanks, decaying spent fuel POO{approx}{approx}S, groundwater, hundreds of contaminated facilities, solid waste burial grounds, and liquid waste disposal sites -began in earnest under Fluor Hanford. The fruits of labors initiated, completed and/or underway by Fluor Hanford can today be seen across the site. Spent nuclear fuel is buttoned up in secure, dry containers stored away from regional water resources, reactive plutonium scraps are packaged in approved containers, transuranic (TRU) solid waste is being retrieved from burial trenches and shipped offsite for permanent disposal, contaminated facilities are being demolished, contaminated groundwater is being pumped out of aquifers at record rates, and many other inventive solutions are being applied to Hanford's most intransigent nuclear wastes. (TRU) waste contains more than 100 nanocuries per gram, and contains isotopes higher than uranium on the Periodic Table of the Elements. (A nanocurie is one-billionth of a curie.) At the same time, Fluor Hanford has dramatically improved safety records, and cost

  15. Uncertainties in the Sunspot Numbers: Estimation and Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Lefèvre, Laure; Clette, Frédéric

    2016-09-01

    Sunspot number series are subject to various uncertainties that are still poorly known. The need to understand these better was recently highlighted by the major revision of the international Sunspot Number (Clette et al., in Space Sci. Rev. 186, 35, 2014). We present the first thorough estimation of these uncertainties, which behave as Poisson-like random variables with a multiplicative coefficient that is time- and observatory-dependent. We provide a simple expression for these uncertainties, and reveal how their evolution in time coincides with changes in the observations and processing of the data. Knowing their value is essential for properly building composites out of multiple observations, and for preserving the stability of the composites in time.

  16. Peculiarity of the Oscillation Stratification in Sunspot Penumbrae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolobov, D. Y.; Chelpanov, A. A.; Kobanov, N. I.

    2016-07-01

    Spatial distributions of the dominant oscillation frequency obtained for four sunspots show a feature shared by all the analysed levels of the solar atmosphere in these sunspots. This feature located in the inner penumbrae indicates that this region has favourable conditions for 2.5 - 4 mHz oscillation propagation. This agrees with the fact that the spectral composition of the oscillations at three atmospheric heights (Fe uc(i) 6173 Å, 1700 Å, and He uc(ii) 304 Å) in this region are similar. There has been previous evidence of particular similarities along the height of the photospheric magnetic field strength, line-of-sight velocity, and temperature profile in the inner penumbra, where the internal boundary of the Evershed flow is located. The finding of the same dominant oscillation frequency at a range of altitudes from the chromosphere up to the transition region extends the height range, suggesting similarities in physical conditions.

  17. ON THE SOURCE OF PROPAGATING SLOW MAGNETOACOUSTIC WAVES IN SUNSPOTS

    SciTech Connect

    Prasad, S. Krishna; Jess, D. B.; Khomenko, Elena

    2015-10-10

    Recent high-resolution observations of sunspot oscillations using simultaneously operated ground- and space-based telescopes reveal the intrinsic connection between different layers of the solar atmosphere. However, it is not clear whether these oscillations are externally driven or generated in situ. We address this question by using observations of propagating slow magnetoacoustic waves along a coronal fan loop system. In addition to the generally observed decreases in oscillation amplitudes with distance, the observed wave amplitudes are also found to be modulated with time, with similar variations observed throughout the propagation path of the wave train. Employing multi-wavelength and multi-instrument data, we study the amplitude variations with time as the waves propagate through different layers of the solar atmosphere. By comparing the amplitude modulation period in different layers, we find that slow magnetoacoustic waves observed in sunspots are externally driven by photospheric p-modes, which propagate upward into the corona before becoming dissipated.

  18. Determining sunspot positions in the classroom using the Carrington method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galaviz, Pedro; Sánchez-Bajo, Florentino; Vaquero, José M.

    2016-07-01

    The method developed by Richard Carrington nearly 150 years ago is still very useful in order to determine the sunspot heliographic coordinates, owing to its simplicity and low cost equipment required. In this paper, we present a very detailed explanation of the procedure, along with an example of an application. With regard to this, the method can be employed successfully for educational purposes, due to the noticeable accuracy that it provides using a simple instrumental setup.

  19. Norms for the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test in 6- to 11-year-old children in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Shu, B C; Tien, A Y; Lung, F W; Chang, Y Y

    2000-08-01

    The main aims of this study were to develop norms for the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test in 6- to 11-year-old children in Taiwan; to explore the effect of sex, age, birth order, number of siblings, and parental education on WCST performance in 6- to 11-year-old children; and to make a comparison of WCST performance between children in Taiwan and the USA. The results of this comparison of developmental norms of school children in Taiwan and the United States may facilitate the WCST as a clinical or research instrument in combination with other test procedures to assess aspects of cognitive and neuropsychological functioning of school children.

  20. High resolution studies of sunspots and flux tubes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Title, Alan

    This contract is for a three-year research study of sunspots and magnetic flux tubes in the solar atmosphere, using tunable filter images collected with a CCD camera during observing runs at the Canary Islands observatories in Spain. The best observations are analyzed and compared with theoretical models, to study the structure and dynamics of sunspots, their connections with surrounding magnetic fields, and the properties and evolution of smaller flux tubes in plage and quiet sun. Scientific results are reported at conferences and published in the appropriate journals. The contract is being performed by the Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, part of the Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory (LPARL) of the Research and Development Division (RDD) of Lockheed Missiles and Space Co., Inc. (LMSC). The principal investigator is Dr. Alan Title, and the research is done by him and other scientific staff at LPARL and Solar Physics Research Corporation (SPRC), often in collaboration with visiting scientists and students from other institutions. Highlights during this reporting period include completing the final version of a paper on the Evershed effect, writing a paper on magnetic diffusion, continuing work on contrast of small flux tubes, and work on the development of new models to interpret our sunspots observations.

  1. RADIATIVE HYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF ACOUSTIC WAVES IN SUNSPOTS

    SciTech Connect

    Bard, S.; Carlsson, M.

    2010-10-10

    We investigate the formation and evolution of the Ca II H line in a sunspot. The aim of our study is to establish the mechanisms underlying the formation of the frequently observed brightenings of small regions of sunspot umbrae known as 'umbral flashes'. We perform fully consistent NLTE radiation hydrodynamic simulations of the propagation of acoustic waves in sunspot umbrae and conclude that umbral flashes result from increased emission of the local solar material during the passage of acoustic waves originating in the photosphere and steepening to shock in the chromosphere. To quantify the significance of possible physical mechanisms that contribute to the formation of umbral flashes, we perform a set of simulations on a grid formed by different wave power spectra, different inbound coronal radiation, and different parameterized chromospheric heating. Our simulations show that the waves with frequencies in the range 4.5-7.0 mHz are critical to the formation of the observed blueshifts of umbral flashes while waves with frequencies below 4.5 mHz do not play a role despite their dominance in the photosphere. The observed emission in the Ca II H core between flashes only occurs in the simulations that include significant inbound coronal radiation and/or extra non-radiative chromospheric heating in addition to shock dissipation.

  2. Weather variability, sunspots, and the blooms of cyanobacteria.

    PubMed

    Hu, Wenbiao; Connell, Des; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu

    2009-03-01

    The roles of weather variability and sunspots in the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, were investigated using cyanobacteria cell data collected from the Fred Haigh Dam, Queensland, Australia. Time series generalized linear model and classification and regression tree (CART) model were used in the analysis. Data on notified cell numbers of cyanobacteria and weather variables over the periods 2001 and 2005 were provided by the Australian Department of Natural Resources and Water, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. The results indicate that monthly minimum temperature (relative risk [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.25) and rainfall (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03-1.20) had a positive association, but relative humidity (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91-0.98) and wind speed (RR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98) were negatively associated with the cyanobacterial numbers, after adjustment for seasonality and auto-correlation. The CART model showed that the cyanobacteria numbers were best described by an interaction between minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunspot numbers. When minimum temperature exceeded 18 degrees C and relative humidity was under 66%, the number of cyanobacterial cells rose by 2.15-fold. We conclude that weather variability and sunspot activity may affect cyanobacteria blooms in dams.

  3. Sunspot Observations of Rudolf Wolf from 1849 - 1893

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedli, Thomas K.

    2016-06-01

    The sunspot observations of Rudolf Wolf form the core of the Wolf series of sunspot relative numbers, or Wolf numbers, since his observations define the original scale of the series and also the main course of solar activity from 1849 to 1893. Unfortunately, the raw data for the years 1856 to 1869 were never published in full detail. The heritage group of the Rudolf Wolf Society in Switzerland digitized parts of the hitherto unpublished original source book of the Wolf series and put it on its website www.wolfinstitute.ch. Now, the Wolf numbers from 1849 to 1876, as provided by the World Data Center for Solar Index and Long-term Solar Observations (WDC-SILSO), can be reconstructed in every detail, since the source book contains all the raw sunspot group and individual spot numbers as well as the implemented calibration and interpolation methods. Thus, the observations made by Rudolf Wolf with the 83/1320 mm Fraunhofer refractor and with the 40/700 mm Parisian refractor as well as those made by Heinrich Schwabe can be identified and separated now. In this article, we describe Wolf's instruments and methods of observation. An inspection of the source book and other published sources reveals that the calibration factor of the 40/700 mm Parisian refractor should probably be lowered. Since no appropriate comparison observations are available, the scale transfer from Heinrich Schwabe to Rudolf Wolf has to be analyzed further.

  4. High resolution studies of sunspots and flux tubes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Title, Alan

    1994-01-01

    This contract is for a three-year research study of sunspots and magnetic flux tubes in the solar atmosphere, using tunable filter images collected with a CCD camera during observing runs at the Canary Islands observatories in Spain. The best observations are analyzed and compared with theoretical models, to study the structure and dynamics of sunspots, their connections with surrounding magnetic fields, and the properties and evolution of smaller flux tubes in plage and quiet sun. Scientific results are reported at conferences and published in the appropriate journals. The contract is being performed by the Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, part of the Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory (LPARL) of the Research and Development Division (RDD) of Lockheed Missiles and Space Co., Inc. (LMSC). The principal investigator is Dr. Alan Title, and the research is done by him and other scientific staff at LPARL and Solar Physics Research Corporation (SPRC), often in collaboration with visiting scientists and students from other institutions. Highlights during this reporting period include completing the final version of a paper on the Evershed effect, writing a paper on magnetic diffusion, continuing work on contrast of small flux tubes, and work on the development of new models to interpret our sunspots observations.

  5. MODELING THE CHROMOSPHERE OF A SUNSPOT AND THE QUIET SUN

    SciTech Connect

    Avrett, E.; Tian, H.; Landi, E.; Curdt, W.; Wülser, J.-P.

    2015-10-01

    Semiempirical atmospheric modeling attempts to match an observed spectrum by finding the temperature distribution and other physical parameters along the line of sight through the emitting region such that the calculated spectrum agrees with the observed one. In this paper we take the observed spectrum of a sunspot and the quiet Sun in the EUV wavelength range 668–1475 Å from the 2001 SUMER atlas of Curdt et al. to determine models of the two atmospheric regions, extending from the photosphere through the overlying chromosphere into the transition region. We solve the coupled statistical equilibrium and optically thick radiative transfer equations for a set of 32 atoms and ions. The atoms that are part of molecules are treated separately, and are excluded from the atomic abundances and atomic opacities. We compare the Mg ii k line profile observations from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph with the profiles calculated from the two models. The calculated profiles for the sunspot are substantially lower than the observed ones, based on the SUMER models. The only way we have found to raise the calculated Mg ii lines to agree with the observations is to introduce illumination of the sunspot from the surrounding active region.

  6. SPECTROPOLARIMETRICALLY ACCURATE MAGNETOHYDROSTATIC SUNSPOT MODEL FOR FORWARD MODELING IN HELIOSEISMOLOGY

    SciTech Connect

    Przybylski, D.; Shelyag, S.; Cally, P. S.

    2015-07-01

    We present a technique to construct a spectropolarimetrically accurate magnetohydrostatic model of a large-scale solar magnetic field concentration, mimicking a sunspot. Using the constructed model we perform a simulation of acoustic wave propagation, conversion, and absorption in the solar interior and photosphere with the sunspot embedded into it. With the 6173 Å magnetically sensitive photospheric absorption line of neutral iron, we calculate observable quantities such as continuum intensities, Doppler velocities, as well as the full Stokes vector for the simulation at various positions at the solar disk, and analyze the influence of non-locality of radiative transport in the solar photosphere on helioseismic measurements. Bisector shapes were used to perform multi-height observations. The differences in acoustic power at different heights within the line formation region at different positions at the solar disk were simulated and characterized. An increase in acoustic power in the simulated observations of the sunspot umbra away from the solar disk center was confirmed as the slow magnetoacoustic wave.

  7. Significant statistically relationship between the great volcanic eruptions and the count of sunspots from 1610 to the present

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casati, Michele

    2014-05-01

    The assertion that solar activity may play a significant role in the trigger of large volcanic eruptions is, and has been discussed by many geophysicists. Numerous scientific papers have established a possible correlation between these events and the electromagnetic coupling between the Earth and the Sun, but none of them has been able to highlight a possible statistically significant relationship between large volcanic eruptions and any of the series, such as geomagnetic activity, solar wind, sunspots number. In our research, we compare the 148 volcanic eruptions with index VEI4, the major 37 historical volcanic eruptions equal to or greater than index VEI5, recorded from 1610 to 2012 , with its sunspots number. Staring, as the threshold value, a monthly sunspot number of 46 (recorded during the great eruption of Krakatoa VEI6 historical index, August 1883), we note some possible relationships and conduct a statistical test. • Of the historical 31 large volcanic eruptions with index VEI5+, recorded between 1610 and 1955, 29 of these were recorded when the SSN<46. The remaining 2 eruptions were not recorded when the SSN<46, but rather during solar maxima of the solar cycle of the year 1739 and in the solar cycle No. 14 (Shikotsu eruption of 1739 and Ksudach 1907). • Of the historical 8 large volcanic eruptions with index VEI6+, recorded from 1610 to the present, 7 of these were recorded with SSN<46 and more specifically, within the three large solar minima known : Maunder (1645-1710), Dalton (1790-1830) and during the solar minimums occurred between 1880 and 1920. As the only exception, we note the eruption of Pinatubo of June 1991, recorded in the solar maximum of cycle 22. • Of the historical 6 major volcanic eruptions with index VEI5+, recorded after 1955, 5 of these were not recorded during periods of low solar activity, but rather during solar maxima, of the cycles 19,21 and 22. The significant tests, conducted with the chi-square χ ² = 7,782, detect a

  8. Comparison of Neural Network and McNish and Lincoln Methods for the Prediction of the Smoothed Sunspot Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fessant, Françoise; Pierret, Catherine; Lantos, Pierre

    1996-10-01

    In this paper we propose a comparison between two methods for the problem of long-term prediction of the smoothed sunspot index. These two methods are first the classical method of McNish and Lincoln (as improved by Stewart and Ostrow), and second a neural network method. The results of these two methods are compared in two periods, during the ascending and the declining phases of the current cycle 22 (1986 1996). The predictions with neural networks are much better than with the McNish and Lincoln method for the atypical ascending phase of cycle 22. During the second period the predictions are very similar, and in agreement with observations, when the McNish and Lincoln method is based on the data of declining phases of the cycles.

  9. BLOOD PRESSURE, HEART RATE AND MELATONIN CYCLES SYNCHRONIZATION WITH THE SEASON, EARTH MAGNETISM AND SOLAR FLARES.

    PubMed

    Cornélissen, G; Halberg, F; Sothern, R B; Hillman, D C; Siegelová, J

    2010-01-01

    other aspect of RBS' physical environment, namely the seasons (at ~1.0 year), earth magnetism (at ~0.5 year) and/or solar flares (at ~0.42 year). Cosmic-biotic transfer of information, albeit hardly of energy (the biospheric amplitudes are very small) may be mediated in this set of frequency windows. As found earlier, RBS' circulation is also frequency-trapped environmentally in multidecadal windows, HR being locked into the transtridecadal Brückner, or rather Brückner-Egeson-Lockyer, BEL sunspot and terrestrial weather cycle, while his BP follows Hale's didecadal cycle in the changing polarity of sunspots.The ~0.41-year HR cycle may be associated with changes in solar flares, the cis-half-year amplitude of HR showing a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.79 with the total solar flare index (from both solar hemispheres) at a lag of ~3.2 years. The superposed time courses of these two variables indicate the presence of a shared Horrebow-Arago-Schwabe sunspot cycle of ~11 years, the cis-half-year in HR being more prominent after the total solar flare index reaches its ~11-year peak. Differences in the time-varying behavior of BP vs. HR are also described.

  10. Effect of Ball Mass on Dribble, Pass, and Pass Reception in 9-11-Year-Old Boys' Basketball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arias, Jose L.; Argudo, Francisco M.; Alonso, Jose I.

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the study was to analyze the effect of ball mass on dribble, pass, and pass reception in real game situations in 9-11-year-old boys' basketball. Participants were 54 boys identified from six federated teams. The independent variable was ball mass, and dependent variables were number of dribbles, passes, and pass receptions. Three…

  11. Expectations and Levels of Understanding When Using Mobile Phones among 9-11-Year Olds in Wales, UK

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turley, Joanne; Baker, Sally-Ann; Lewis, Christopher Alan

    2014-01-01

    There is growing interest in examining the use of mobile technology among children. The present study extended this literature among a sample of 9-11-year olds in Wales, UK in three ways. First, to examine the level of mobile phone ownership; second, to consider how mobile phones are used, investigate timescales and expectations when communicating…

  12. Predictors of Meeting Physical Activity and Fruit and Vegetable Recommendations in 9-11-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beck, Jimikaye; De Witt, Peter; McNally, Janise; Siegfried, Scott; Hill, James O; Stroebele-Benschop, Nanette

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Childhood obesity represents a significant public health problem. This study examined physical activity and nutrition behaviours and attitudes of 9-11-year-olds, and factors influencing these behaviours. Design: Study participants recorded pedometer steps for 7 days and completed physical activity enjoyment, food attitudes and food…

  13. Maximal Voluntary Static Force Production Characteristics of Skeletal Muscle in Children 8-11 Years of Age.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Going, Scott B.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    A study of maximal voluntary isometric muscle contraction force-time curves among 32 normal, healthy 8- to 11-year-olds performing tasks involving separate muscle groups found that force and maximal rate of force increase were quite reproducible, but time to selected force levels reflected considerable variations. (Author/CB)

  14. Internet Use and Psychological Well-Being among 10-Year-Old and 11-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Devine, Paula; Lloyd, Katrina

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses data from the 2009 Kids' Life and Times Survey, involving 3657 children aged 10 or 11 years old in Northern Ireland. The survey indicated high levels of use of Internet applications, including social-networking sites and online games. Using the KIDSCREEN-27 instrument, the data indicate that the use of social-networking sites and…

  15. Upper School Maths: Lesson Plans and Activities for Ages 9-11 Years. Series of Caribbean Volunteer Publications, No. 9.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Voluntary Services Overseas, Castries (St. Lucia).

    This collection of lesson plans and activities for students aged 9-11 years is based on a science curriculum developed by a group of Caribbean nations. The activities pertain to topics such as place value, prime and composite numbers, the sieve of Eratosthenes, square numbers, factors and multiples, sequences, averages, geometry, symmetry,…

  16. Chiari type 1 malformation, corpus callosum agenesis and patent craniopharyngeal canal in an 11-year-old boy.

    PubMed

    Tijssen, Maud Pm; Poretti, Andrea; Huisman, Thierry Agm

    2016-10-01

    We describe the neuroimaging findings of an 11-year-old boy who presented with mild occipital headache and precocious puberty. This child was found to have a combination of various midline anomalies including a Chiari type 1 malformation, corpus callosum agenesis and patent craniopharyngeal canal with adjacent intracranial dermoid cyst.

  17. Evaluation of Low-Cost, Objective Instruments for Assessing Physical Activity in 10-11-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hart, Teresa L.; Brusseau, Timothy; Kulinna, Pamela Hodges; McClain, James J.; Tudor-Locke, Catrine

    2011-01-01

    This study compared step counts detected by four, low-cost, objective, physical-activity-assessment instruments and evaluated their ability to detect moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) compared to the ActiGraph accelerometer (AG). Thirty-six 10-11-year-old children wore the NL-1000, Yamax Digiwalker SW 200, Omron HJ-151, and Walk4Life…

  18. Capturing the Cumulative Effects of School Reform: An 11-Year Study of the Impacts of America's Choice on Student Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    May, Henry; Supovitz, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    This article presents the results of an 11-year longitudinal study of the impact of America's Choice comprehensive school reform (CSR) design on student learning gains in Rochester, New York. A quasi-experimental interrupted time-series approach using Bayesian hierarchical growth curve analysis with crossed random effects is used to compare the…

  19. Comparative Analysis of Musical Abilities of 11-Year-Olds from Slovenia and the Island of Martinique

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jerman, Janez; Pretnar, Tatjana

    2006-01-01

    The focus of the study is the comparison between the musical abilities of 11-year-old children on the island of Martinique and in Slovenia, and finding out to what extent their development of musical abilities is influenced by musical and cultural family background, music school attendance, choral singing and playing orchestral instruments. Our…

  20. Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

    1997-01-01

    By definition, the conventional onset for the start of a sunspot cycle is the time when smoothed sunspot number (i.e., the 12-month moving average) has decreased to its minimum value (called minimum amplitude) prior to the rise to its maximum value (called maximum amplitude) for the given sunspot cycle. On the basis (if the modern era sunspot cycles 10-22 and on the presumption that cycle 22 is a short-period cycle having a cycle length of 120 to 126 months (the observed range of short-period modern era cycles), conventional onset for cycle 23 should not occur until sometime between September 1996 and March 1997, certainly between June 1996 and June 1997, based on the 95-percent confidence level deduced from the mean and standard deviation of period for the sample of six short-pei-iod modern era cycles. Also, because the first occurrence of a new cycle, high-latitude (greater than or equal to 25 degrees) spot has always preceded conventional onset of the new cycle by at least 3 months (for the data-available interval of cycles 12-22), conventional onset for cycle 23 is not expected until about August 1996 or later, based on the first occurrence of a new cycle 23, high-latitude spot during the decline of old cycle 22 in May 1996. Although much excitement for an earlier-occurring minimum (about March 1996) for cycle 23 was voiced earlier this year, the present study shows that this exuberance is unfounded. The decline of cycle 22 continues to favor cycle 23 minimum sometime during the latter portion of 1996 to the early portion of 1997.

  1. The sperm donor programme over 11 years at Newcastle Fertility Centre.

    PubMed

    Gudipati, Madhavi; Pearce, Kim; Prakash, Alka; Redhead, Gillian; Hemingway, Victoria; McEleny, Kevin; Stewart, Jane

    2013-12-01

    The UK national sperm donor shortage is well known. We aimed to analyse the trends in various aspects of the sperm donor programme at Newcastle Fertility Centre (NFC) between 2000 and 2010. A retrospective review of the assisted conception treatments with donor sperm was performed. A decline in the numbers of donors recruited alongside a declining trend in the number of patients treated with donor sperm and donor insemination (DI) treatment cycles carried out was apparent. There was an accompanying rising trend in donor IVF cycles and in same-sex couples and single women coming for treatment. The transfer of sperm to local peripheral centres ceased during this time and an increasing number of patients imported sperm from overseas commercial sperm banks. A waiting list for treatment was set up in 2007 with a gradual increase in waiting time to 18 months in 2010. Overall, there was a significant change in the sperm donor programme at NFC with fewer donors recruited, fewer patients receiving treatment, increasing sperm import and longer waiting times for treatment over the study period.

  2. Trichotillomania: Bizzare Patern of Hair Loss at 11-Year-old Girl.

    PubMed

    Zímová, Jana; Zímová, Pavlína

    2016-06-01

    Trichotillomania (TTM) is defined by the Diagnostics and Statistic Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DMS-IV) as hair loss from a patient`s repetitive self-pulling of hair. The disorder is included under anxiety disorders because it shares some obsessive-compulsive features. Patients have the tendency towards feelings of unattractiveness, body dissatisfaction, and low self-esteem (1,2). It is a major psychiatric problem, but many patients with this disorder first present to a dermatologist. An 11-year-old girl came to our department with a 2-month history of diffuse hair loss on the frontoparietal and parietotemporal area (Figure 1). She had originally been examined by a pediatrician with the diagnosis of alopecia areata. The patient`s personal history included hay fever and shortsightedness, and she suffered from varicella and mononucleosis. Nobody in the family history suffered from alopecia areata, but her father has male androgenetic alopecia (Norwood/Hamilton MAGA C3F3). The mother noticed that the child had had changeable mood for about 2 months and did not want to communicate with other persons in the family. The family did not have any pet at home. At school, her favorite subjects were Math and Computer Studies. She did not like Physical Education and did not participate in any sport activities during her free time. This was very strange because she was obese (body-mass index (BMI) 24.69). She was sometimes angry with her 13-year-old sister who had better results at school. The girl had suddenly started to wear a blue scarf. The parents did not notice that she pulled out her hair at home. Dermatological examination of the capillitium found a zone of incomplete alopecia in the frontoparietal and parietotemporal area, without inflammation, desquamation, and scaring. Hairs were of variable length (Figure 1). There was a patch of incomplete alopecia above the forehead between two stripes of hair of variable length (Figure 2). The hair pull test was

  3. Trichotillomania: Bizzare Patern of Hair Loss at 11-Year-old Girl.

    PubMed

    Zímová, Jana; Zímová, Pavlína

    2016-06-01

    Trichotillomania (TTM) is defined by the Diagnostics and Statistic Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DMS-IV) as hair loss from a patient`s repetitive self-pulling of hair. The disorder is included under anxiety disorders because it shares some obsessive-compulsive features. Patients have the tendency towards feelings of unattractiveness, body dissatisfaction, and low self-esteem (1,2). It is a major psychiatric problem, but many patients with this disorder first present to a dermatologist. An 11-year-old girl came to our department with a 2-month history of diffuse hair loss on the frontoparietal and parietotemporal area (Figure 1). She had originally been examined by a pediatrician with the diagnosis of alopecia areata. The patient`s personal history included hay fever and shortsightedness, and she suffered from varicella and mononucleosis. Nobody in the family history suffered from alopecia areata, but her father has male androgenetic alopecia (Norwood/Hamilton MAGA C3F3). The mother noticed that the child had had changeable mood for about 2 months and did not want to communicate with other persons in the family. The family did not have any pet at home. At school, her favorite subjects were Math and Computer Studies. She did not like Physical Education and did not participate in any sport activities during her free time. This was very strange because she was obese (body-mass index (BMI) 24.69). She was sometimes angry with her 13-year-old sister who had better results at school. The girl had suddenly started to wear a blue scarf. The parents did not notice that she pulled out her hair at home. Dermatological examination of the capillitium found a zone of incomplete alopecia in the frontoparietal and parietotemporal area, without inflammation, desquamation, and scaring. Hairs were of variable length (Figure 1). There was a patch of incomplete alopecia above the forehead between two stripes of hair of variable length (Figure 2). The hair pull test was

  4. Thermospheric density model biases at the 23rd sunspot maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pardini, C.; Moe, K.; Anselmo, L.

    2012-07-01

    Uncertainties in the neutral density estimation are the major source of aerodynamic drag errors and one of the main limiting factors in the accuracy of the orbit prediction and determination process at low altitudes. Massive efforts have been made over the years to constantly improve the existing operational density models, or to create even more precise and sophisticated tools. Special attention has also been paid to research more appropriate solar and geomagnetic indices. However, the operational models still suffer from weakness. Even if a number of studies have been carried out in the last few years to define the performance improvements, further critical assessments are necessary to evaluate and compare the models at different altitudes and solar activity conditions. Taking advantage of the results of a previous study, an investigation of thermospheric density model biases during the last sunspot maximum (October 1999 - December 2002) was carried out by analyzing the semi-major axis decay of four satellites: Cosmos 2265, Cosmos 2332, SNOE and Clementine. Six thermospheric density models, widely used in spacecraft operations, were analyzed: JR-71, MSISE-90, NRLMSISE-00, GOST-2004, JB2006 and JB2008. During the time span considered, for each satellite and atmospheric density model, a fitted drag coefficient was solved for and then compared with the calculated physical drag coefficient. It was therefore possible to derive the average density biases of the thermospheric models during the maximum of the 23rd solar cycle. Below 500 km, all the models overestimated the average atmospheric density by amounts varying between +7% and +20%. This was an inevitable consequence of constructing thermospheric models from density data obtained by assuming a fixed drag coefficient, independent of altitude. Because the uncertainty affecting the drag coefficient measurements was about 3% at both 200 km and 480 km of altitude, the calculated air density biases below 500 km were

  5. IS SOLAR CYCLE 24 PRODUCING MORE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS THAN CYCLE 23?

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Y.-M.; Colaninno, R. E-mail: robin.colaninno@nrl.navy.mil

    2014-04-01

    Although sunspot numbers are roughly a factor of two lower in the current cycle than in cycle 23, the rate of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appears to be at least as high in 2011-2013 as during the corresponding phase of the previous cycle, according to three catalogs that list events observed with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). However, the number of CMEs detected is sensitive to such factors as the image cadence and the tendency (especially by human observers) to under-/overcount small or faint ejections during periods of high/low activity. In contrast to the total number, the total mass of CMEs is determined mainly by larger events. Using the mass measurements of 11,000 CMEs given in the manual CDAW catalog, we find that the mass loss rate remains well correlated with the sunspot number during cycle 24. In the case of the automated CACTus and SEEDS catalogs, the large increase in the number of CMEs during cycle 24 is almost certainly an artifact caused by the near-doubling of the LASCO image cadence after mid-2010. We confirm that fast CMEs undergo a much stronger solar-cycle variation than slow ones, and that the relative frequency of slow and less massive CMEs increases with decreasing sunspot number. We conclude that cycle 24 is not only producing fewer CMEs than cycle 23, but that these ejections also tend to be slower and less massive than those observed one cycle earlier.

  6. Is Solar Cycle 24 Producing More Coronal Mass Ejections Than Cycle 23?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.-M.; Colaninno, R.

    2014-04-01

    Although sunspot numbers are roughly a factor of two lower in the current cycle than in cycle 23, the rate of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appears to be at least as high in 2011-2013 as during the corresponding phase of the previous cycle, according to three catalogs that list events observed with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). However, the number of CMEs detected is sensitive to such factors as the image cadence and the tendency (especially by human observers) to under-/overcount small or faint ejections during periods of high/low activity. In contrast to the total number, the total mass of CMEs is determined mainly by larger events. Using the mass measurements of 11,000 CMEs given in the manual CDAW catalog, we find that the mass loss rate remains well correlated with the sunspot number during cycle 24. In the case of the automated CACTus and SEEDS catalogs, the large increase in the number of CMEs during cycle 24 is almost certainly an artifact caused by the near-doubling of the LASCO image cadence after mid-2010. We confirm that fast CMEs undergo a much stronger solar-cycle variation than slow ones, and that the relative frequency of slow and less massive CMEs increases with decreasing sunspot number. We conclude that cycle 24 is not only producing fewer CMEs than cycle 23, but that these ejections also tend to be slower and less massive than those observed one cycle earlier.

  7. On solar cycle predictions and reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brajša, R.; Wöhl, H.; Hanslmeier, A.; Verbanac, G.; Ruždjak, D.; Cliver, E.; Svalgaard, L.; Roth, M.

    2009-03-01

    Context: Generally, there are two procedures for solar cycle predictions: the empirical methods - statistical methods based on extrapolations and precursor methods - and methods based on dynamo models. Aims: The goal of the present analysis is to forecast the strength and epochs of the next solar cycle, to investigate proxies for grand solar minima and to reconstruct the relative sunspot number in the Maunder minimum. Methods: We calculate the asymmetry of the ascending and descending solar cycle phases (Method 1) and use this parameter as a proxy for solar activity on longer time scales. Further, we correlate the relative sunspot numbers in the epochs of solar activity minima and maxima (Method 2) and estimate the parameters of an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA, Method 3). Finally, the power spectrum of data obtained with the Method 1 is analysed and the Methods 1 and 3 are combined. Results: Signatures of the Maunder, Dalton and Gleissberg minima were found with Method 1. A period of about 70 years, somewhat shorter than the Gleissberg period was identified in the asymmetry data. The maximal smoothed monthly sunspot number during the Maunder minimum was reconstructed and found to be in the range 0-35 (Method 1). The estimated Wolf number (also called the relative sunspot number) of the next solar maximum is in the range 88-102 (Method 2). Method 3 predicts the next solar maximum between 2011 and 2012 and the next solar minimum for 2017. Also, it forecasts the relative sunspot number in the next maximum to be 90 ± 27. A combination of the Methods 1 and 3 gives for the next solar maximum relative sunspot numbers between 78 and 99. Conclusions: The asymmetry parameter provided by Method 1 is a good proxy for solar activity in the past, also in the periods for which no relative sunspot numbers are available. Our prediction for the next solar cycle No. 24 is that it will be weaker than the last cycle, No. 23. This prediction is based on various independent

  8. Anticipating Cycle 24 Minimum and its Consequences: An Update

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2008-01-01

    This Technical Publication updates estimates for cycle 24 minimum and discusses consequences associated with cycle 23 being a longer than average period cycle and cycle 24 having parametric minimum values smaller (or larger for the case of spotless days) than long term medians. Through December 2007, cycle 23 has persisted 140 mo from its 12-mo moving average (12-mma) minimum monthly mean sunspot number occurrence date (May 1996). Longer than average period cycles of the modern era (since cycle 12) have minimum-to-minimum periods of about 139.0+/-6.3 mo (the 90-percent prediction interval), inferring that cycle 24 s minimum monthly mean sunspot number should be expected before July 2008. The major consequence of this is that, unless cycle 24 is a statistical outlier (like cycle 21), its maximum amplitude (RM) likely will be smaller than previously forecast. If, however, in the course of its rise cycle 24 s 12-mma of the weighted mean latitude (L) of spot groups exceeds 24 deg, then one expects RM >131, and if its 12-mma of highest latitude (H) spot groups exceeds 38 deg, then one expects RM >127. High-latitude new cycle spot groups, while first reported in January 2008, have not, as yet, become the dominant form of spot groups. Minimum values in L and H were observed in mid 2007 and values are now slowly increasing, a precondition for the imminent onset of the new sunspot cycle.

  9. On the Relationship Between Sunspot Structure and Magnetic Field Changes Associated with Solar Flares

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Y. L.; Zhang, M.

    2016-08-01

    Many previous studies have shown that magnetic fields and sunspot structures present rapid and irreversible changes associated with solar flares. In this paper, we first use five X-class flares observed by Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager to show that not only do magnetic fields and sunspot structures show rapid, irreversible changes, but also that these changes are closely related both spatially and temporally. The magnitudes of the correlation coefficients between the temporal variations of the horizontal magnetic field and sunspot intensity are all larger than 0.90, with a maximum value of 0.99 and an average value of 0.96. Then, using four active regions during quiescent periods, three observed and one simulated, we show that in sunspot penumbra regions there also exists a close correlation between sunspot intensity and horizontal magnetic field strength in addition to the well-known correlation between sunspot intensity and the normal magnetic field strength. By connecting these two observational phenomena, we show that the sunspot structure change and magnetic field change are two facets of the same phenomena of solar flares; one change might be induced by the change of the other due to a linear correlation between sunspot intensity and magnetic field strength out of a local force balance.

  10. Magnetic and Thermal Contributions to Helioseismic Travel times in Simulated Sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Douglas; Felipe, Tobias; Birch, Aaron; Crouch, Ashley D.

    2016-05-01

    The interpretation of local helioseismic measurements of sunspots has long been a challenge, since waves propagating through sunspots are potentially affected by both mode conversion and changes in the thermal structure of the spots. We carry out numerical simulations of wave propagation through a variety of models which alternately isolate either the thermal or magnetic structure of the sunspot or include both of these. We find that helioseismic holography measurements made from the resulting simulated wavefields show qualitative agreement with observations of real sunspots. Using insight from ray theory, we find that travel-time shifts in the thermal (non-magnetic) sunspot model are primarily produced by changes in the wave path due to the Wilson depression rather than variations in the wave speed. This shows that inversions for the subsurface structure of sunspots must account for local changes in the density. In some ranges of horizontal phase speed and frequency there is agreement (within the noise level of the measurements) between the travel times measured in the full magnetic sunspot model and the thermal model. If this conclusion proves to be robust for a wide range of models, it suggests a path towards inversions for sunspot structure. This research has been funded by the Spanish MINECO through grant AYA2014-55078-P, by the NASA Heliophysics Division through NNX14AD42G and NNH12CF23C, and the NSF Solar Terrestrial program through AGS-1127327.

  11. Kinematics of slow and fast CMEs in soar cycle 23 and 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Dipankar; Gopalswamy, Nat; Pant, Vaibhav

    2016-07-01

    CMEs are episodic expulsion of plasma and magnetic fields from Sun into heliosphere. CMEs can be classified, based on their speeds, as slow CMEs and fast CMEs. We find that slow CMEs and fast CMEs behave differently in two cycles. While fast CMEs seem to follow the sunspot variations, slow CMEs have much flatter distribution. Thus the distribution of total CMEs is affected by slow CME populations. We find double peak behaviour in fast CMEs, since they follow the sunspot distribution, in both the cycles without any significant delay from sunspot variation. It suggests that most of the fast CMEs originates from active regions associated with sunspots. We also find double peak behaviour in slow CMEs in cycle 24 but not in cycle 23. In addition to this the number of slow CMEs are far more than in cycle 23. These findings point towards the fact that in cycle 24 slow CMEs to some extent are associated with sunspots and due to weak heliospheric field they could somehow escape easily thus giving double peak behaviour and larger distribution in cycle 24. Apart from this we also find that slow and fast CMEs follow different power laws. This may shed light on their origin as well.

  12. Automatic Detection of Magnetic δ in Sunspot Groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Padinhatteeri, Sreejith; Higgins, Paul A.; Bloomfield, D. Shaun; Gallagher, Peter T.

    2016-01-01

    Large and magnetically complex sunspot groups are known to be associated with flares. To date, the Mount Wilson scheme has been used to classify sunspot groups based on their morphological and magnetic properties. The most flare-prolific class, the δ sunspot group, is characterised by opposite-polarity umbrae within a common penumbra, separated by less than 2∘. In this article, we present a new system, called the Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker-Delta Finder (SMART-DF), which can be used to automatically detect and classify magnetic δs in near-realtime. Using continuum images and magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), we first estimate distances between opposite-polarity umbrae. Opposite-polarity pairs with distances of less that 2∘ are then identified, and if these pairs are found to share a common penumbra, they are identified as a magnetic δ configuration. The algorithm was compared to manual δ detections reported by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). SMART-DF detected 21 out of 23 active regions (ARs) that were marked as δ spots by NOAA during 2011 - 2012 (within {±} 60° longitude). SMART-DF in addition detected five ARs that were not announced as δ spots by NOAA. The near-realtime operation of SMART-DF resulted in many δs being identified in advance of NOAA's daily notification. SMART-DF will be integrated into SolarMonitor (www.solarmonitor.org) and the near-realtime information will be available to the public.

  13. Comparison of New and Old Sunspot Number Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cliver, E. W.

    2016-06-01

    Four new sunspot number time series have been published in this Topical Issue: a backbone-based group number in Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys., 2016; referred to here as SS, 1610 - present), a group number series in Usoskin et al. (Solar Phys., 2016; UEA, 1749 - present) that employs active day fractions from which it derives an observational threshold in group spot area as a measure of observer merit, a provisional group number series in Cliver and Ling (Solar Phys., 2016; CL, 1841 - 1976) that removed flaws in the Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998a; 181, 491, 1998b) normalization scheme for the original relative group sunspot number ( RG, 1610 - 1995), and a corrected Wolf (international, RI) number in Clette and Lefèvre (Solar Phys., 2016; SN, 1700 - present). Despite quite different construction methods, the four new series agree well after about 1900. Before 1900, however, the UEA time series is lower than SS, CL, and SN, particularly so before about 1885. Overall, the UEA series most closely resembles the original RG series. Comparison of the UEA and SS series with a new solar wind B time series (Owens et al. in J. Geophys. Res., 2016; 1845 - present) indicates that the UEA time series is too low before 1900. We point out incongruities in the Usoskin et al. (Solar Phys., 2016) observer normalization scheme and present evidence that this method under-estimates group counts before 1900. In general, a correction factor time series, obtained by dividing an annual group count series by the corresponding yearly averages of raw group counts for all observers, can be used to assess the reliability of new sunspot number reconstructions.

  14. FLOCCULENT FLOWS IN THE CHROMOSPHERIC CANOPY OF A SUNSPOT

    SciTech Connect

    Vissers, Gregal; Rouppe van der Voort, Luc

    2012-05-01

    High-quality imaging spectroscopy in the H{alpha} line, obtained with the CRisp Imaging SpectroPolarimeter (CRISP) at the Swedish 1-m solar Telescope (SST) at La Palma and covering a small sunspot and its surroundings, is studied. They exhibit ubiquitous flows both along fibrils making up the chromospheric canopy away from the spot and in the superpenumbra. We term these flows 'flocculent' to describe their intermittent character, that is, morphologically reminiscent of coronal rain. The flocculent flows are investigated further in order to determine their dynamic and morphological properties. For the measurement of their characteristic velocities, accelerations, and sizes, we employ a new versatile analysis tool, the CRisp SPectral EXplorer (CRISPEX), which we describe in detail. Absolute velocities on the order of 7.2-82.4 km s{sup -1} are found, with an average value of 36.5 {+-} 5.9 km s{sup -1} and slightly higher typical velocities for features moving toward the sunspot than away. These velocities are much higher than those determined from the shift of the line core, which shows patches around the sunspot with velocity enhancements of up to 10-15 km s{sup -1} (both red- and blueshifted). Accelerations are determined for a subsample of features that show clear accelerating or decelerating behavior, yielding an average of 270 {+-} 63 m s{sup -2} and 149 {+-} 63 m s{sup -2} for the accelerating and decelerating features, respectively. Typical flocculent features measure 627 {+-} 44 km in length and 304 {+-} 30 km in width. On average, 68 features are detected per minute, with an average lifetime of 67.7 {+-} 8.8 s. The dynamics and phenomenology of the flocculent flows suggest they may be driven by a siphon flow, where the flocculence could arise from a density perturbation close to one of the footpoints or along the loop structure.

  15. Distribution of electric currents in sunspots from photosphere to corona

    SciTech Connect

    Gosain, Sanjay; Démoulin, Pascal; López Fuentes, Marcelo

    2014-09-20

    We present a study of two regular sunspots that exhibit nearly uniform twist from the photosphere to the corona. We derive the twist parameter in the corona and in the chromosphere by minimizing the difference between the extrapolated linear force-free field model field lines and the observed intensity structures in the extreme-ultraviolet images of the Sun. The chromospheric structures appear more twisted than the coronal structures by a factor of two. Further, we derive the vertical component of electric current density, j{sub z} , using vector magnetograms from the Hinode Solar Optical Telescope (SOT). The spatial distribution of j{sub z} has a zebra pattern of strong positive and negative values owing to the penumbral fibril structure resolved by Hinode/SOT. This zebra pattern is due to the derivative of the horizontal magnetic field across the thin fibrils; therefore, it is strong and masks weaker currents that might be present, for example, as a result of the twist of the sunspot. We decompose j{sub z} into the contribution due to the derivatives along and across the direction of the horizontal field, which follows the fibril orientation closely. The map of the tangential component has more distributed currents that are coherent with the chromospheric and coronal twisted structures. Moreover, it allows us to map and identify the direct and return currents in the sunspots. Finally, this decomposition of j{sub z} is general and can be applied to any vector magnetogram in order to better identify the weaker large-scale currents that are associated with coronal twisted/sheared structures.

  16. Sunspot latitudes during the Maunder Minimum: A machine-readable catalogue from previous studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaquero, José M.; Nogales, José M.; Sánchez-Bajo, Florentino

    2015-03-01

    The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 approximately) was a period of very low solar activity and a strong hemispheric asymmetry, with most of sunspots in the southern hemisphere. In this paper, two data sets of sunspot latitudes during the Maunder Minimum have been recovered for the international scientific community. The first data set is constituted by latitudes of sunspots appearing in the catalogue published by Gustav Spörer nearly 130 years ago. The second data set is based on the sunspot latitudes displayed in the butterfly diagram for the Maunder Minimum which was published by Ribes and Nesme-Ribes almost 20 years ago. We have calculated the asymmetry index using these data sets confirming a strong hemispherical asymmetry in this period. A machine-readable version of this catalogue with both data sets is available in the Historical Archive of Sunspot Observations (http://haso.unex.es)

  17. SCALER MODE OF THE AUGER OBSERVATORY AND SUNSPOTS

    SciTech Connect

    Canal, Carlos A. Garcia; Tarutina, Tatiana; Hojvat, Carlos

    2012-10-15

    Recent data from the Auger Observatory on low-energy secondary cosmic ray particles are analyzed to study temporal correlations together with data on the daily sunspot numbers and neutron monitor data. Standard spectral analysis demonstrates that the available data show 1/f {sup {beta}} fluctuations with {beta} Almost-Equal-To 1 in the low-frequency range. All data behave like Brownian fluctuations in the high-frequency range. The existence of long-range correlations in the data was confirmed by detrended fluctuation analysis. The real data confirmed the correlation between the scaling exponent of the detrended analysis and the exponent of the spectral analysis.

  18. Skinfold thickness at ulnar, triceps, subscapular, and suprailiac regions in 1,656 Japanese children aged 3-11 years.

    PubMed

    Ohzeki, T; Hanaki, K; Motozumi, H; Matsuda-Ohtahara, H; Shiraki, K

    1992-01-01

    We measured body weight, height, and skinfold thickness (SFT) at ulnar, triceps, subscapular and suprailiac regions in 1,656 Japanese children aged 3-11 years. Means of SFT in boys and girls with normal weight exhibited similar changes with age to Caucasian children. However, nadirs of SFT were observed 1 year earlier and means at 11 years were slightly higher in Japanese. Correlation coefficients between SFT and excess weight (EW) were high in boys and girls when EW was more than 10%. Some children with EW of more than 10% had abnormal SFT. Skinfolds in all children with EW of 30% or more were beyond the normal limits. In this study, normal ranges of SFT in Japanese children are demonstrated and their racial characteristics are compared to Caucasians. It is suggested that children with EW of 10-30% are heterogenous and determination of fat volume is essential to confirm the diagnosis of obesity in these subjects.

  19. Speech-Language and swallowing manifestations and rehabilitation in an 11-year-old girl with MELAS syndrome.

    PubMed

    Vandana, V P; Bindu, Parayil Sankaran; Sonam, Kothari; Taly, Arun B; Gayathri, N; Madhu, N; Sinha, S

    2015-01-01

    Mitochondrial myopathy, encephalopathy, lactic acidosis, and stroke-like episodes (MELAS) syndrome is a rare mitochondrial disease. The available studies on MELAS syndrome are limited to evaluation of radiological, audiological, genetic, and neurological findings. Among the various neurological manifestations, speech-language and swallowing manifestations are less discussed in the literature. This report describes the speech-language and swallowing function in an 11-year-old girl with MELAS syndrome. The intervention over a period of 6 months is discussed.

  20. Solar Cycle Slow to Get Going: What Does It Mean for Space Weather?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Ronald

    2011-04-01

    If you have the sense that the current solar cycle has been slow to build up, maybe it is more than just the “watched pot” failing to boil. A comparison with previous sunspot cycles shows that the current cycle is among the slowest-growing cycles characterized with good historical data. Figure 1 shows the smoothed sunspot number for the period from 2 years before the minimum to 2 years after it for the 24 numbered solar cycles (cycle 1 started in 1755; we are just now entering cycle 24). It illustrates the historically slow increase of the current cycle (shown in red) as of February 2011. Three of the four cycles with slower increases (shown in blue) were during the Dalton Minimum in the early nineteenth century. The fourth is the period leading into cycle 1. The red dots in the figure are cycle 24 monthly average sunspot numbers; these data are too recent to be adjusted by the smoothing algorithm that includes the influence of monthly averages within 6 months of the smoothed value. Also shown, at the bottom of the figure, for context, are the sunspot data for the first 23 cycles, which also identify the Dalton Minimum.

  1. Changes in element contents of four lichens over 11 years in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, northern Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bennett, J.P.; Wetmore, C.M.

    1999-01-01

    Four species of lichen (Cladina rangiferina, Evernia mesomorpha, Hypogymnia physodes, and Parmelia sulcata) were sampled at six locations in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness three times over a span of 11 years and analyzed for concentrations of 16 chemical elements to test the hypotheses that corticolous species would accumulate higher amounts of chemical elements than terricolous species, and that 11 years were sufficient to detect spatial patterns and temporal trends in element contents. Multivariate analyses of over 2770 data points revealed two principal components that accounted for 68% of the total variance in the data. These two components, the first highly loaded with Al, B, Cr, Fe, Ni and S, and the second loaded with Ca, Cd, Mg and Mn, were inversely related to each other over time and space. The first component was interpreted as consisting of an anthropogenic and a dust component, while the second, primarily a nutritional component. Cu, K, Na, P, Pb and Zn were not highly loaded on either component. Component 1 decreased significantly over the 11 years and from west to east, while component 2 increased. The corticolous species were more enriched in heavy metals than the terricolous species. All four elements in component 2 in H. physodes were above enrichment thresholds for this species. Species differences on the two components were greater than the effects of time and space, suggesting that biomonitoring with lichens is strongly species dependent. Some localities in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness appear enriched in some anthropogenic elements for no obvious reasons.

  2. Evidence for Long-term Retrograde Motions of Sunspot Patterns and Indications of Coupled g-mode Rotation Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juckett, David A.; Wolff, Charles L.

    2008-11-01

    Solar g-modes are global oscillations that would exist primarily in the radiative zone (RZ) and would be excited by either convective overshoot or nuclear burning in the core. Wolff and O’Donovan ( Astrophys. J. 661, 568, 2007) proposed a non-linear coupling of g-modes into groups that share the same harmonic degree ℓ. Each group (denoted set( ℓ)) exhibits a unique retrograde rotation rate with respect to the RZ that depends mainly on ℓ. The coupling yields a standing wave (nearly stationary in longitude) that has two angularly defined hot spots offset from the equator on opposite sides of the Sun that would deposit energy asymmetrically in the lower convective envelope (CE). It is anticipated that when two or more groups overlap in longitude, an increase in local heating would influence the distribution of sunspots. In this paper, we scanned a multitude of rotational reference frames for sunspot clustering to test for frames that are concordant with the rotation of these g-modes sets. To achieve this, spherical harmonic filtering of sunspot synoptic maps was used to extract patterns consistent with coalesced g-modes. The latitude band, with minimal differential rotation, was sampled from each filtered synoptic map and layered into a stackplot. This was progressively shifted, line-by-line, into different rotational reference frames. We have detected long-lived longitudinal alignments, spanning 90 years of solar cycles, which are consistent with the rotation rate of the deep solar interior as well as other rotational frames predicted by the coupled g-mode model. Their sidereal rotation rates of 370.0, 398.8, 412.7, 418.3, 421.0, 424.2 and 430.0 nHz correspond, respectively, to coupled g-modes for ℓ = 2 through 7 and G, where G is a set with high ℓ values or a group of such sets (unresolved) that rotate almost as fast as the RZ. While the clustering in these reference frames offers new approaches for studying the longitudinal behavior of solar activity

  3. Sunspot numbers based on historic records in the 1610s: Early telescopic observations by Simon Marius and others

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhäuser, R.; Neuhäuser, D. L.

    2016-07-01

    , Tanner, Perovius, Argoli, and Wely are not mentioned as observers for 1611, 1612, 1618, 1620, and 1621 in Hoyt & Schatten. Marius and Schmidnerus are among the earliest datable telescopic sunspot observers (1611 Aug 3, Julian), namely after Harriot, the two Fabricius (father and son), Scheiner, and Cysat. Sunspots records by Malapert from 1618 to 1621 show that the last low-latitude spot was seen in Dec 1620, while the first high-latitude spots were noticed in June and Oct 1620, so that the Schwabe cycle turnover (minimum) took place around that time, which is also consistent with the sunspot trend mentioned by Marius and with naked-eye spots and likely true aurorae. We consider discrepancies in the Hoyt & Schatten (1998) systematics, we compile the active day fractions for the 1610s, and we critically discuss very recent publications on Marius which include the following Maunder Minimum. Our work should be seen as a call to go back to the historical sources.

  4. Synthetic observations of wave propagation in a sunspot umbra

    SciTech Connect

    Felipe, T.; Socas-Navarro, H.; Khomenko, E.

    2014-11-01

    Spectropolarimetric temporal series from Fe I λ6301.5 Å and Ca II infrared triplet lines are obtained by applying the Stokes synthesis code NICOLE to a numerical simulation of wave propagation in a sunspot umbra from MANCHA code. The analysis of the phase difference between Doppler velocity and intensity core oscillations of the Fe I λ6301.5 Å line reveals that variations in the intensity are produced by opacity fluctuations rather than intrinsic temperature oscillations, except for frequencies between 5 and 6.5 mHz. On the other hand, the photospheric magnetic field retrieved from the weak field approximation provides the intrinsic magnetic field oscillations associated to wave propagation. Our results suggest that this is due to the low magnetic field gradient of our sunspot model. The Stokes parameters of the chromospheric Ca II infrared triplet lines show striking variations as shock waves travel through the formation height of the lines, including emission self-reversals in the line core and highly abnormal Stokes V profiles. Magnetic field oscillations inferred from the Ca II infrared lines using the weak field approximation appear to be related with the magnetic field strength variation between the photosphere and the chromosphere.

  5. Sunspot Pattern Classification using PCA and Neural Networks (Poster)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rajkumar, T.; Thompson, D. E.; Slater, G. L.

    2005-01-01

    The sunspot classification scheme presented in this paper is considered as a 2-D classification problem on archived datasets, and is not a real-time system. As a first step, it mirrors the Zuerich/McIntosh historical classification system and reproduces classification of sunspot patterns based on preprocessing and neural net training datasets. Ultimately, the project intends to move from more rudimentary schemes, to develop spatial-temporal-spectral classes derived by correlating spatial and temporal variations in various wavelengths to the brightness fluctuation spectrum of the sun in those wavelengths. Once the approach is generalized, then the focus will naturally move from a 2-D to an n-D classification, where "n" includes time and frequency. Here, the 2-D perspective refers both to the actual SOH0 Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) images that are processed, but also refers to the fact that a 2-D matrix is created from each image during preprocessing. The 2-D matrix is the result of running Principal Component Analysis (PCA) over the selected dataset images, and the resulting matrices and their eigenvalues are the objects that are stored in a database, classified, and compared. These matrices are indexed according to the standard McIntosh classification scheme.

  6. LATERAL DOWNFLOWS IN SUNSPOT PENUMBRAL FILAMENTS AND THEIR TEMPORAL EVOLUTION

    SciTech Connect

    Esteban Pozuelo, S.; Rubio, L. R. Bellot; Rodríguez, J. de la Cruz

    2015-04-20

    We study the temporal evolution of downflows observed at the lateral edges of penumbral filaments in a sunspot located very close to the disk center. Our analysis is based on a sequence of nearly diffraction-limited scans of the Fe i 617.3 nm line taken with the CRisp Imaging Spectro-Polarimeter instrument at the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope. We compute Dopplergrams from the observed intensity profiles using line bisectors and filter the resulting velocity maps for subsonic oscillations. Lateral downflows appear everywhere in the center-side penumbra as small, weak patches of redshifts next to or along the edges of blueshifted flow channels. These patches have an intermittent life and undergo mergings and fragmentations quite frequently. The lateral downflows move together with the hosting filaments and react to their shape variations, very much resembling the evolution of granular convection in the quiet Sun. There is a good relation between brightness and velocity in the center-side penumbra, with downflows being darker than upflows on average, which is again reminiscent of quiet Sun convection. These results point to the existence of overturning convection in sunspot penumbrae, with elongated cells forming filaments where the flow is upward but very inclined, and weak lateral downward flows. In general, the circular polarization profiles emerging from the lateral downflows do not show sign reversals, although sometimes we detect three-lobed profiles that are suggestive of opposite magnetic polarities in the pixel.

  7. Sunspot waves and triggering of homologous active region jets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandra, R.; Gupta, G. R.; Mulay, Sargam; Tripathi, Durgesh

    2015-02-01

    We present and discuss multiwavelength observations of five homologous recurrent solar jets that occurred in active region NOAA 11133 on 2010 December 11. These jets were well observed by the Solar Dynamic observatory (SDO) with high spatial and temporal resolution. The speed of the jets ranged between 86 and 267 km s-1. A type III radio burst was observed in association with all the five jets. The investigation of the overall evolution of magnetic field in the source regions suggested that the flux was continuously emerging on longer term. However, all the jets but J5 were triggered during a local dip in the magnetic flux, suggesting the launch of the jets during localized submergence of magnetic flux. Additionally, using the PFSS modelling of the photospheric magnetic field, we found that all the jets were ejected in the direction of open field lines. We also traced sunspot oscillations from the sunspot interior to foot-point of jets and found presence of ˜3 min oscillations in all the SDO/AIA (Atmospheric Imaging Assembly) passbands. The wavelet analysis revealed an increase in amplitude of the oscillations just before the trigger of the jets, that decreased after the jets were triggered. The observations of increased amplitude of the oscillation and its subsequent decrease provides evidence of wave-induced reconnection triggering the jets.

  8. Lateral Downflows in Sunspot Penumbral Filaments and their Temporal Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esteban Pozuelo, S.; Bellot Rubio, L. R.; de la Cruz Rodríguez, J.

    2015-04-01

    We study the temporal evolution of downflows observed at the lateral edges of penumbral filaments in a sunspot located very close to the disk center. Our analysis is based on a sequence of nearly diffraction-limited scans of the Fe i 617.3 nm line taken with the CRisp Imaging Spectro-Polarimeter instrument at the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope. We compute Dopplergrams from the observed intensity profiles using line bisectors and filter the resulting velocity maps for subsonic oscillations. Lateral downflows appear everywhere in the center-side penumbra as small, weak patches of redshifts next to or along the edges of blueshifted flow channels. These patches have an intermittent life and undergo mergings and fragmentations quite frequently. The lateral downflows move together with the hosting filaments and react to their shape variations, very much resembling the evolution of granular convection in the quiet Sun. There is a good relation between brightness and velocity in the center-side penumbra, with downflows being darker than upflows on average, which is again reminiscent of quiet Sun convection. These results point to the existence of overturning convection in sunspot penumbrae, with elongated cells forming filaments where the flow is upward but very inclined, and weak lateral downward flows. In general, the circular polarization profiles emerging from the lateral downflows do not show sign reversals, although sometimes we detect three-lobed profiles that are suggestive of opposite magnetic polarities in the pixel.

  9. Synthetic Observations of Wave Propagation in a Sunspot Umbra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felipe, T.; Socas-Navarro, H.; Khomenko, E.

    2014-11-01

    Spectropolarimetric temporal series from Fe I λ6301.5 Å and Ca II infrared triplet lines are obtained by applying the Stokes synthesis code NICOLE to a numerical simulation of wave propagation in a sunspot umbra from MANCHA code. The analysis of the phase difference between Doppler velocity and intensity core oscillations of the Fe I λ6301.5 Å line reveals that variations in the intensity are produced by opacity fluctuations rather than intrinsic temperature oscillations, except for frequencies between 5 and 6.5 mHz. On the other hand, the photospheric magnetic field retrieved from the weak field approximation provides the intrinsic magnetic field oscillations associated to wave propagation. Our results suggest that this is due to the low magnetic field gradient of our sunspot model. The Stokes parameters of the chromospheric Ca II infrared triplet lines show striking variations as shock waves travel through the formation height of the lines, including emission self-reversals in the line core and highly abnormal Stokes V profiles. Magnetic field oscillations inferred from the Ca II infrared lines using the weak field approximation appear to be related with the magnetic field strength variation between the photosphere and the chromosphere.

  10. Time-distance helioseismology of two realistic sunspot simulations

    SciTech Connect

    DeGrave, K.; Jackiewicz, J.; Rempel, M. E-mail: jasonj@nmsu.edu

    2014-10-10

    Linear time-distance helioseismic inversions are carried out using several filtering schemes to determine vector flow velocities within two ∼100{sup 2} Mm{sup 2} × 20 Mm realistic magnetohydrodynamic sunspot simulations of 25 hr. One simulation domain contains a model of a full sunspot (i.e., one with both an umbra and penumbra), while the other contains a pore (i.e., a spot without a penumbra). The goal is to test current helioseismic methods using these state-of-the-art simulations of magnetic structures. We find that horizontal flow correlations between inversion and simulation flow maps are reasonably high (∼0.5-0.8) in the upper 3 Mm at distances exceeding 25-30 Mm from spot center, but are substantially lower at smaller distances and larger depths. Inversions of forward-modeled travel times consistently outperform those of our measured travel times in terms of horizontal flow correlations, suggesting that our inability to recover flow structure near these active regions is largely due to the fact that we are unable to accurately measure travel times near strong magnetic features. In many cases the velocity amplitudes from the inversions underestimate those of the simulations by up to 50%, possibly indicating nonlinearity of the forward problem. In every case, we find that our inversions are unable to recover the vertical flow structure of the simulations at any depth.

  11. SUPERSONIC DOWNFLOWS AT THE UMBRA-PENUMBRA BOUNDARY OF SUNSPOTS

    SciTech Connect

    Louis, Rohan E.; Mathew, Shibu K.; Venkatakrishnan, P.; Bellot Rubio, Luis R.

    2011-01-20

    High-resolution spectropolarimetric observations of three sunspots taken with Hinode demonstrate the existence of supersonic downflows at or close to the umbra-penumbra boundary which have not been reported before. These downflows are confined to large patches, usually encompassing bright penumbral filaments, and have lifetimes of more than 14 hr. The presence of strong downflows in the center-side penumbra near the umbra rules out an association with the Evershed flow. Chromospheric filtergrams acquired close to the time of the spectropolarimetric measurements show large, strong, and long-lived brightenings in the neighborhood of the downflows. The photospheric intensity also exhibits persistent brightenings comparable to the quiet Sun. Interestingly, the orientation of the penumbral filaments at the site of the downflows is similar to that resulting from the reconnection process described by Ryutova et al. The existence of such downflows in the inner penumbra represents a challenge for numerical models of sunspots because they have to explain them in terms of physical processes likely affecting the chromosphere.

  12. Supersonic Downflows at the Umbra-Penumbra Boundary of Sunspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Louis, Rohan E.; Bellot Rubio, Luis R.; Mathew, Shibu K.; Venkatakrishnan, P.

    2011-01-01

    High-resolution spectropolarimetric observations of three sunspots taken with Hinode demonstrate the existence of supersonic downflows at or close to the umbra-penumbra boundary which have not been reported before. These downflows are confined to large patches, usually encompassing bright penumbral filaments, and have lifetimes of more than 14 hr. The presence of strong downflows in the center-side penumbra near the umbra rules out an association with the Evershed flow. Chromospheric filtergrams acquired close to the time of the spectropolarimetric measurements show large, strong, and long-lived brightenings in the neighborhood of the downflows. The photospheric intensity also exhibits persistent brightenings comparable to the quiet Sun. Interestingly, the orientation of the penumbral filaments at the site of the downflows is similar to that resulting from the reconnection process described by Ryutova et al. The existence of such downflows in the inner penumbra represents a challenge for numerical models of sunspots because they have to explain them in terms of physical processes likely affecting the chromosphere.

  13. STATISTICAL COMPARISON BETWEEN PORES AND SUNSPOTS BY USING SDO/HMI

    SciTech Connect

    Cho, I.-H.; Cho, K.-S.; Bong, S.-C.; Lim, E.-K.; Kim, R.-S.; Choi, S.; Kim, Y.-H.; Yurchyshyn, V.

    2015-09-20

    We carried out an extensive statistical study of the properties of pores and sunspots, and investigated the relationship among their physical parameters such as size, intensity, magnetic field, and the line-of-sight (LOS) velocity in the umbrae. For this, we classified 9881 samples into three groups of pores, transitional sunspots, and mature sunspots. As a result, (1) we find that the total magnetic flux inside the umbra of pores, transitional sunspots, and mature sunspots increases proportionally to the powers of the area and the power indices in the three groups significantly differ from each other. (2) The umbral area distribution of each group shows a Gaussian distribution and they are clearly separated, displaying three distinct peak values. All of the quantities significantly overlap among the three groups. (3) The umbral intensity shows a rapid decrease with increasing area, and their magnetic field strength shows a rapid increase with decreasing intensity. (4) The LOS velocity in pores is predominantly redshifted and its magnitude decreases with increasing magnetic field strength. The decreasing trend becomes nearly constant with marginal blueshift in the case of mature sunspots. The dispersion of LOS velocities in mature sunspots is significantly suppressed compared to pores. From our results, we conclude that the three groups have different characteristics in their area, intensity, magnetic field, and LOS velocity as well in their relationships.

  14. The rotation of sunspots in the solar active region NOAA 10930

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gopasyuk, O. S.

    2014-06-01

    The rotation of sunspots in the solar active region NOAA 10930 was investigated on the basis of the data on the longitudinal magnetic field and the Doppler velocities using magnetograms and dopplergrams taken with the Solar Optical Telescope installed aboard the HINODE mission. Under the assumption of axial symmetry, areally-mean vertical, radial, and azimuthal components of the magnetic field and velocity vectors were calculated in both sunspots. The plasma in the sunspots rotated in opposite directions: in the leading sunspot, clockwise, and in the following sunspot, counterclockwise. The magnetic flux tubes that formed sunspots of the active region on the solar surface were twisted in one direction, clockwise. Electric currents generated as a result of the rotation and twisting of magnetic flux tubes were also flowing in one direction. Azimuthal components of magnetic and velocity fields of both sunspot umbrae reached their maximum on December 11, 2006. By the start of the X3.4 flare (December 13, 2006), their values became practically equal to zero.

  15. A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

    1999-01-01

    A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

  16. Solar activity secular cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kramynin, A. P.; Mordvinov, A. V.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term variations in solar activity secular cycles have been studied using a method for the expansion of reconstructed sunspot number series Sn( t) for 11400 years in terms of natural orthogonal functions. It has been established that three expansion components describe more than 98% of all Sn( t) variations. In this case, the contribution of the first expansion component is about 92%. The averaged form of the 88year secular cycle has been determined based on the form of the first expansion coordinate function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle have been revealed based on the time function conjugate to the first function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle coincide with those observed in the Sn( t) series spectrum. A change in the secular cycle form and the time variations in this form are described by the second and third expansion components, the contributions of which are about 4 and 2%, respectively. The variations in the steepness of the secular cycle branches are more pronounced in the 200-year cycle, and the secular cycle amplitude varies more evidently in the 2300-year cycle.

  17. Developmental pathways of language and social communication problems in 9-11 year olds: unpicking the heterogeneity.

    PubMed

    Roy, P; Chiat, S

    2014-10-01

    This paper addressed relations between language, social communication and behaviour, and their trajectories, in a sample of 9-11-year-olds (n=91) who had been referred to clinical services with concerns about language as pre-schoolers. Children were first assessed at 2½-4 years, and again 18 months later. Results revealed increasing differentiation of profiles across time. By 9-11 years, 11% of the sample had social communication deficits, 27% language impairment, 20% both, and 42% neither. The size of group differences on key language and social communication measures was striking (2-3 standard deviations). Social communication deficits included autistic mannerisms and were associated with social, emotional and behavioural difficulties (SEBDs); in contrast, language impairment was associated with hyperactivity only. Children with both language and social communication problems had the most severe difficulties on all measures. These distinct school-age profiles emerged gradually. Investigation of developmental trajectories revealed that the three impaired groups did not differ significantly on language or SEBD measures when the children were first seen. Only low performance on the Early Sociocognitive Battery, a new measure of social responsiveness, joint attention and symbolic understanding, differentiated the children with and without social communication problems at 9-11 years. These findings suggest that some children who first present with language delay or difficulties have undetected Autism Spectrum Disorders which may or may not be accompanied by language impairment in the longer term. This new evidence of developmental trajectories starting in the preschool years throws further light on the nature of social communication and language problems in school-age children, relations between language impairment and SEBDs, and on the nature of early language development.

  18. The between-day reproducibility of fasting, satiety-related analytes, in 8 to 11year-old boys.

    PubMed

    Allsop, Susan; Rumbold, Penny L S; Green, Benjamin P

    2016-10-01

    The aim of the present study was to establish the between-day reproducibility of fasting plasma GLP-17-36, glucagon, leptin, insulin and glucose, in lean and overweight/obese 8-11year-old boys. A within-group study design was utilised wherein the boys attended two study days, separated by 1week, where a fasting fingertip capillary blood sample was obtained. Deming regression, mean difference, Bland-Altman limits of agreement (LOA) and typical imprecision as a percentage coefficient of variation (CV %), were utilised to assess reproducibility between-days. On a group level, Deming regression detected no evidence of systematic or proportional bias between-days for all of the satiety-related analytes however, only glucose and plasma GLP-17-36 displayed low typical and random imprecision. When analysed according to body composition, good reproducibility was maintained for glucose in the overweight/obese boys and for plasma GLP-17-36, in those with lean body mass. The present findings demonstrate that the measurement of glucose and plasma GLP-17-36 by fingertip capillary sampling on a group level, is reproducible between-days, in 8-11year-old boys. Comparison of blood glucose obtained by fingertip capillary sampling can be made between lean and overweight/obese 8-11year-old boys. Presently, the comparison of fasting plasma GLP-17-36 according to body weight is inappropriate due to high imprecision observed in lean boys between-days. The use of fingertip capillary sampling in the measurement of satiety-related analytes has the potential to provide a better understanding of mechanisms that affect appetite and feeding behaviour in children. PMID:27265877

  19. The between-day reproducibility of fasting, satiety-related analytes, in 8 to 11year-old boys.

    PubMed

    Allsop, Susan; Rumbold, Penny L S; Green, Benjamin P

    2016-10-01

    The aim of the present study was to establish the between-day reproducibility of fasting plasma GLP-17-36, glucagon, leptin, insulin and glucose, in lean and overweight/obese 8-11year-old boys. A within-group study design was utilised wherein the boys attended two study days, separated by 1week, where a fasting fingertip capillary blood sample was obtained. Deming regression, mean difference, Bland-Altman limits of agreement (LOA) and typical imprecision as a percentage coefficient of variation (CV %), were utilised to assess reproducibility between-days. On a group level, Deming regression detected no evidence of systematic or proportional bias between-days for all of the satiety-related analytes however, only glucose and plasma GLP-17-36 displayed low typical and random imprecision. When analysed according to body composition, good reproducibility was maintained for glucose in the overweight/obese boys and for plasma GLP-17-36, in those with lean body mass. The present findings demonstrate that the measurement of glucose and plasma GLP-17-36 by fingertip capillary sampling on a group level, is reproducible between-days, in 8-11year-old boys. Comparison of blood glucose obtained by fingertip capillary sampling can be made between lean and overweight/obese 8-11year-old boys. Presently, the comparison of fasting plasma GLP-17-36 according to body weight is inappropriate due to high imprecision observed in lean boys between-days. The use of fingertip capillary sampling in the measurement of satiety-related analytes has the potential to provide a better understanding of mechanisms that affect appetite and feeding behaviour in children.

  20. New characteristics of the solar cycle and dynamo theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otkidychev, P. A.; Popova, E. P.

    2015-06-01

    Based on an analysis of the observational data for solar cycles 12-23 (Royal Greenwich Observatory-USAF/NOAA Sunspot Data), we have studied various parameters of the "Maunder butterflies." Based on the observational data for cycles 16-23, we have found that BT/ Land S depend linearly on each other, where B is the mean magnetic field of the cycle, T is the cycle duration, S is the cycle strength, and L is the mean sunspot latitude in the cycle (the arithmetic mean of the absolute values of the mean latitudes in the north and south). The connection of the observed quantities with the α- ω-dynamo theory is discussed.

  1. Forecast of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on the Disturbed Days Precursor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rabin, Douglas M.

    2007-01-01

    R. J. Thompson (1993, Solar Physics 148, 383) exhibited a significant linear relationship between the number of geomagnetically disturbed days (those that exceed some threshold value of the Ap or nu index) in a solar cycle and the sum of the peak sunspot number in that cycle and the next cycle. Thus, the number of disturbed days during a full cycle, together with the peak sunspot number in that cycle, is a predictor of the amplitude of the next cycle. The work reported here applies Thompson's method to the current cycle. Linear relationships as described above are derived both for the pure aa record (1868-2006) and for a composite of aa (1868-1931) and Ap (1932-2006). For the composite record, the relationship between aa and Ap is determined cycle-by-cycle during the period of overlap. The method is tested for sensitivity to the adopted Ap (or equivalent aa) threshold. The highest smoothed monthly sunspot number for Cycle 24 is forecasted to be R(sub z) = 115 plus or minus 30, where the uncertainty is conservatively based on the full spread of the data around the fitted line in the sunspot number direction. In terms of smoothed monthly 10.7-cm radio flux, the forecast is F10.7 = 164 plus or minus 28.

  2. Thyrotropin-secreting pituitary adenoma in an 11-year-old boy with type 1 autoimmune polyglandular syndrome.

    PubMed

    Mazerkina, Nadia; Trunin, Yuri; Gorelyshev, Sergey; Golanov, Andrey; Kadashev, Boris; Shishkina, Liudmila; Rotin, Daniil; Karmanov, Maxim; Orlova, Elizabet

    2016-02-01

    Thyrotropinomas (TSHomas) are rare pituitary adenomas, particularly in childhood. We present here the case of an 11-year-old boy with type 1 autoimmune polyglandular syndrome (APS1) and TSHoma which was diagnosed by elevated thyroid - stimulating hormone and thyroid hormones levels without evident clinical signs of hyperthyroidism. He was underwent partial resection of the tumor via transsphenoidal approach and subsequently radiation therapy. Consequently, 1 year after radiotherapy, the patient developed growth hormone deficiency, three and half years after radiation became euthyroid, and five and half years after treatment - hypothyroid. This is the first case of the coexistence of these two rare endocrine diseases in one patient. PMID:26244671

  3. Using the Modified Precursor Method to Estimate the Size of Cycle 24

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2008-01-01

    Modified geomagnetic precursor techniques for predicting the size of the following sunspot cycle are developed, where these techniques use the 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days (when Ap greater than or equals 25), the Ap index, the aa index, and the aaI index at about 4 yr during the declining portion of the preceding sunspot cycle. For cycle 24, these techniques suggest that its RM will measure about 130 +/- 14, a value outside the consensus prediction interval of the low prediction (90 +/- 10) given by the NOAA Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel. Furthermore, cycle 24 is predicted to be a fast-rising cycle (ASC = 44 +/- 5 months), peaking before April 2012, presuming the official start of cycle 24 in March 2008. Also discussed are the variation of solar cycle lengths and Hale cycle effects, as related to cycles 23 and 24.

  4. 70 Years of Sunspot Observations at the Kanzelhöhe Observatory: Systematic Study of Parameters Affecting the Derivation of the Relative Sunspot Number

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pötzi, Werner; Veronig, Astrid M.; Temmer, Manuela; Baumgartner, Dietmar J.; Freislich, Heinrich; Strutzmann, Heinz

    2016-03-01

    The Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO) was founded during World War II by the Deutsche Luftwaffe (German Airforce) as one station of a network of observatories that were set up to provide information on solar activity in order to better assess the actual conditions of the Earth's ionosphere in terms of radio-wave propagation. Solar observations began in 1943 with photographs of the photosphere and drawings of sunspots, plage regions, and faculae, as well as patrol observations of the solar corona. At the beginning, all data were sent to Freiburg (Germany). After WW II, international cooperation was established and the data were sent to Zurich, Paris, Moscow, and Greenwich. Relative sunspot numbers have been derived since 1944. The agreement between relative sunspot numbers derived at KSO and the new International Sunspot Number (ISN) (SILSO World Data Center in International Sunspot Number Monthly Bulletin and online catalogue, 1945 - 2015) lies within {≈} 10 %. However, revisiting the historical data, we also find periods with larger deviations. The reasons for the deviations were twofold: On the one hand, a major instrumental change took place during which the instrument was relocated and modified. On the other hand, a period of frequent replacements of personnel caused significant deviations; this clearly shows the importance of experienced observers. In the long term, the instrumental improvements led to better image quality. Additionally, we find a long-term trend towards better seeing conditions that began in 2000.

  5. [Epidemiological study of very preterm infants at Rouen University Hospital: changes in mortality, morbidity, and care over 11 years].

    PubMed

    Pinto Cardoso, G; Abily-Donval, L; Chadie, A; Guerrot, A-M; Pinquier, D; Marret, S

    2013-02-01

    The very preterm birth rate has increased in the past few years. Despite advances in neonatal medicine, neurodevelopmental sequelae have not decreased, despite a perinatal plan published in France in 1994. We conducted an epidemiological comparative survey at Rouen University Hospital in order to analyze morbidity, mortality, and care of very of premature infants by comparing the years 2000, 2005, and 2010. This hospital draws on an area of 17,000 births per year. Our survey was a single-center prospective, descriptive, and comparative study. The three cohorts had the same characteristics and the mortality rate was constant for 11 years. Use of medically assisted procreation and maternal age increased over this period. Chorioamnionitis halved, whereas duration of intrapartum antibiotic therapy increased. Neonatal morbidity was stable for hyaline membrane disease, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, maternofetal or nosocomial infections, and necrotizing enterocolitis. Regarding neurological complications, intraventricular hemorrhages decreased and white matter lesions remained constant. The rate of severe retinopathy remained low. The duration of parenteral nutrition and assisted ventilation, use of postnatal corticosteroids, and length of hospitalization decreased. The breastfeeding rate has increased since 2000 in parallel with postnatal growth restriction : 39% of the premature infants had a weight under the 10th percentile at hospital discharge. Our study allowed us to follow up the changes in neonatal epidemiological characteristics, the mortality and morbidity of extreme premature infants over a period of 11 years and showed few significant changes. Knowledge of medical practices is essential to improve the short- and long-term outcome of premature infants.

  6. Responsiveness and functional connectivity of the scene-sensitive retrosplenial complex in 7-11-year-old children.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Ping; Tokariev, Maksym; Aronen, Eeva T; Salonen, Oili; Ma, YuanYe; Vuontela, Virve; Carlson, Synnöve

    2014-10-29

    Brain imaging studies have identified two cortical areas, the parahippocampal place area (PPA) and the retrosplenial complex (RSC), that respond preferentially to the viewing of scenes. Contrary to the PPA, little is known about the functional maturation and cognitive control of the RSC. Here we used functional magnetic resonance imaging and tasks that required attention to scene (or face) images and suppression of face (or scene) images, respectively, to investigate task-dependent modulation of activity in the RSC and whole-brain functional connectivity (FC) of this area in 7-11-year-old children and young adults. We compared responsiveness of the RSC with that of the PPA. The RSC was selectively activated by scene images in both groups, albeit less than the PPA. Children modulated activity between the tasks similarly in the RSC and PPA, and to the same extent as adults in PPA, whereas adults modulated activity in the RSC less than in PPA. In children, the whole brain FC of the RSC was stronger in the Sf than Fs task between the left RSC and right fusiform gyrus. The between groups comparison suggested stronger FC in children than adults in the Sf task between the right RSC and the left inferior parietal lobule and intraparietal sulcus. Together the results suggest that the function of the RSC and the related networks undergo dynamic changes over the development from 7-11-year-old children to adulthood.

  7. Faculae and east-west asymmetry of sunspot area.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sawyer, C.; Haurwitz, M. W.

    1972-01-01

    Asymmetry of sunspot area with respect to the central meridian is found to depend strongly on the location of the spot group in its chromospheric facula or plage. The usual area excess for spots in the eastern half of the disk is reversed for the relatively rare spot groups situated in the following part of the plage. Qualitatively, the observed asymmetries can be explained by supposing that the apparent area of the spot is decreased by overlying bright facula, especially west of central meridian where the spot (in the usual preceding position) is viewed through the relatively bright and extensive follower part of the plage. Since both facula and spot effects are seen along the same line of sight, optical depth must change slowly with geometric depth, that is, in the active region the atmosphere is relatively transparent.

  8. Galileo, sunspots, and the motions of the Earth: redux.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Topper, D.

    1999-12-01

    In the Third Day of the Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems (1632), Galileo presents an argument for the motion of the Earth based on the annual motion of sunspots. Presented in a rather obscure and seemingly unorganized manner, this demonstration has been the source of much confusion and debate. Two key writings are Arthur Koestler's attack on Galileo's integrity, based on his reading of the proof as a piece of sophistry, and A. Mark Smith's defense of Galileo, based on a comparison of the Ptolemaic and Copernican explanations of the phenomenon. This essay reexamines the arguments of Galileo and others, uncovering especially a key flaw: that they disregarded, omitted, or trivialized the crucial role played by the precession of the equinoxes.

  9. Structural and spectral studies of sunspots. [umbral core modelling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wyller, A. A.

    1974-01-01

    Observations of umbral cores, both by multicolor photometry and by narrow band photometry in the vicinity of the sodium D lines, are described, and evidence is given which supports the validity of many umbral models, each of which describes different aspects of the observed umbral cores. Theoretical studies carried on at the observatory include the following: (1) Zeeman profiles of the sodium D sub 2 line and other lines; (2) turbulent heat conduction, sound waves, and the missing flux in sunspots; (3) chromospheric heating above spots by Alfven waves; (4) magnetic convection in the sun and solar neutrinos; (5) models of starspots on flare stars; (5) starspots on the primaries of contact binary systems; and (6) implications of starspots on red dwarfs.

  10. Detection of convective downflows in a sunspot penumbra.

    PubMed

    Scharmer, G B; Henriques, V M J; Kiselman, D; de la Cruz Rodríguez, J

    2011-07-15

    The fine structure and dynamics of sunspots and the strong outflow in their outer filamentary part--the penumbra--have puzzled astronomers for more than a century. Recent theoretical models and three-dimensional numerical simulations explain the penumbral filaments and their radiative energy output as the result of overturning convection. Here, we describe the detection of ubiquitous, relatively dark downward flows of up to 1 kilometer per second (km/s) in the interior penumbra, using imaging spectropolarimetric data from the Swedish 1-meter Solar Telescope. The dark downflows are omnipresent in the interior penumbra, distinguishing them from flows in arched flux tubes, and are associated with strong (3 to 3.5 km/s) radial outflows. They are thus part of a penumbral convective flow pattern, with the Evershed flow representing the horizontal component of that convection. PMID:21636742

  11. Sunspot observations from the SOUP instrument on Spacelab 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shine, R. A.; Title, A. M.; Tarbell, T. D.; Acton, L.; Duncan, D.; Ferguson, S. H.; Finch, M.; Frank, Z.; Kelly, G.; Lindgren, R.

    1987-01-01

    A series of white light images obtained by the SOUP instrument on Spacelab 2 of active region 4682 on August 5, 1985 were analyzed in the area containing sunspots. Although the umbra of the spot is underexposed, the film is well exposed in the penumbral regions. These data were digitally processed to remove noise and to separate p-mode oscillations from low velocity material motions. The results of this preliminary investigation include: (1) proper motion measurements of a radial outflow in the photospheric granulation pattern just outside the penumbra; (2) discovery of occasional bright structures (streakers) that appear to be ejected outward from the penumbra; (3) broad dark clouds moving outward in the penumbra in addition to the well known bright penumbral grains moving inward; (4) apparent extensions and contractions of penumbral filaments over the photosphere; and (5) observation of a faint bubble or loop-like structure which seems to expand from two bright penumbral filaments into the photosphere.

  12. Correlation Between Sunspot Number and Ca uc(ii) K Emission Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertello, Luca; Pevtsov, Alexei; Tlatov, Andrey; Singh, Jagdev

    2016-06-01

    Long-term synoptic observations in the resonance line of Ca uc(ii) K constitute a fundamental database for a variety of retrospective analyses of the state of the solar magnetism. Synoptic Ca uc(ii) K observations began in late 1904 at the Kodaikanal Observatory in India. In the early 1970s, the National Solar Observatory (NSO) at Sacramento Peak (USA) started a new program of daily Sun-as-a-star observations in the Ca uc(ii) K line. Today the NSO is continuing these observations through its Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) facility. These different data sets can be combined into a single disk-integrated Ca uc(ii) K index time series that describes the average properties of the chromospheric emission over several solar cycles. We present such a Ca uc(ii) K composite and discuss its correlation with the new entirely revised sunspot number data series. For this preliminary investigation, the scaling factor between pairs of time series was determined assuming a simple linear model for the relationship between the monthly mean values during the duration of overlapping observations.

  13. A new dynamo pattern revealed by the tilt angle of bipolar sunspot groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tlatov, A.; Illarionov, E.; Sokoloff, D.; Pipin, V.

    2013-07-01

    We obtain the latitude-time distribution of the averaged tilt angle of solar bipoles. For large bipoles, which are mainly bipolar sunspot groups, the spatially averaged tilt angle is positive in the Northern solar hemisphere and negative in the Southern, with modest variations during the course of the solar cycle. We consider the averaged tilt angle to be a tracer for a crucial element of the solar dynamo, i.e. the regeneration rate of poloidal large-scale magnetic field from toroidal. The value of the tilt obtained crudely corresponds to a regeneration factor corresponding to about 10 per cent of rms velocity of solar convection. These results develop findings of Stenflo & Kosovichev concerning Joy's law, and agree with the usual expectations of solar dynamo theory. Quite surprisingly, we find a pronounced deviation from these properties for smaller bipoles, which are mainly solar ephemeral regions. They possess tilt angles of approximately the same absolute value, but of opposite sign compared to that of the large bipoles. Of course, the tilt data for small bipoles are less well determined than those for large bipoles; however, they remain robust under various modifications of the data processing.

  14. Hi-C Observations of Sunspot Penumbral Bright Dots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpert, Shane E.; Tiwari, Sanjiv K.; Moore, Ronald L.; Winebarger, Amy R.; Savage, Sabrina L.

    2016-05-01

    We report observations of bright dots (BDs) in a sunspot penumbra using High Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) data in 193 Å and examine their sizes, lifetimes, speeds, and intensities. The sizes of the BDs are on the order of 1″ and are therefore hard to identify in the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) 193 Å images, which have a 1.″2 spatial resolution, but become readily apparent with Hi-C's spatial resolution, which is five times better. We supplement Hi-C data with data from AIA's 193 Å passband to see the complete lifetime of the BDs that appeared before and/or lasted longer than Hi-C's three-minute observation period. Most Hi-C BDs show clear lateral movement along penumbral striations, either toward or away from the sunspot umbra. Single BDs often interact with other BDs, combining to fade away or brighten. The BDs that do not interact with other BDs tend to have smaller displacements. These BDs are about as numerous but move slower on average than Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) BDs, which was recently reported by Tian et al., and the sizes and lifetimes are on the higher end of the distribution of IRIS BDs. Using additional AIA passbands, we compare the light curves of the BDs to test whether the Hi-C BDs have transition region (TR) temperatures like those of the IRIS BDs. The light curves of most Hi-C BDs peak together in different AIA channels, indicating that their temperatures are likely in the range of the cooler TR (1‑4 × 105 K).

  15. Vigorous convection in a sunspot granular light bridge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lagg, Andreas; Solanki, Sami K.; van Noort, Michiel; Danilovic, Sanja

    2014-08-01

    Context. Light bridges are the most prominent manifestation of convection in sunspots. The brightest representatives are granular light bridges composed of features that appear to be similar to granules. Aims: An in-depth study of the convective motions, temperature stratification, and magnetic field vector in and around light bridge granules is presented with the aim of identifying similarities and differences to typical quiet-Sun granules. Methods: Spectropolarimetric data from the Hinode Solar Optical Telescope were analyzed using a spatially coupled inversion technique to retrieve the stratified atmospheric parameters of light bridge and quiet-Sun granules. Results: Central hot upflows surrounded by cooler fast downflows reaching 10 km s-1 clearly establish the convective nature of the light bridge granules. The inner part of these granules in the near surface layers is field free and is covered by a cusp-like magnetic field configuration. We observe hints of field reversals at the location of the fast downflows. The quiet-Sun granules in the vicinity of the sunspot are covered by a low-lying canopy field extending radially outward from the spot. Conclusions: The similarities between quiet-Sun and light bridge granules point to the deep anchoring of granular light bridges in the underlying convection zone. The fast, supersonic downflows are most likely a result of a combination of invigorated convection in the light bridge granule due to radiative cooling into the neighboring umbra and the fact that we sample deeper layers, since the downflows are immediately adjacent to the slanted walls of the Wilson depression. The two movies are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  16. Hi-C Observations of Sunspot Penumbral Bright Dots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpert, Shane E.; Tiwari, Sanjiv K.; Moore, Ronald L.; Winebarger, Amy R.; Savage, Sabrina L.

    2016-05-01

    We report observations of bright dots (BDs) in a sunspot penumbra using High Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) data in 193 Å and examine their sizes, lifetimes, speeds, and intensities. The sizes of the BDs are on the order of 1″ and are therefore hard to identify in the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) 193 Å images, which have a 1.″2 spatial resolution, but become readily apparent with Hi-C's spatial resolution, which is five times better. We supplement Hi-C data with data from AIA's 193 Å passband to see the complete lifetime of the BDs that appeared before and/or lasted longer than Hi-C's three-minute observation period. Most Hi-C BDs show clear lateral movement along penumbral striations, either toward or away from the sunspot umbra. Single BDs often interact with other BDs, combining to fade away or brighten. The BDs that do not interact with other BDs tend to have smaller displacements. These BDs are about as numerous but move slower on average than Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) BDs, which was recently reported by Tian et al., and the sizes and lifetimes are on the higher end of the distribution of IRIS BDs. Using additional AIA passbands, we compare the light curves of the BDs to test whether the Hi-C BDs have transition region (TR) temperatures like those of the IRIS BDs. The light curves of most Hi-C BDs peak together in different AIA channels, indicating that their temperatures are likely in the range of the cooler TR (1-4 × 105 K).

  17. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF CONVERSION TO ALFVEN WAVES IN SUNSPOTS

    SciTech Connect

    Khomenko, E.; Cally, P. S. E-mail: paul.cally@monash.edu

    2012-02-10

    We study the conversion of fast magnetoacoustic waves to Alfven waves by means of 2.5D numerical simulations in a sunspot-like magnetic configuration. A fast, essentially acoustic, wave of a given frequency and wave number is generated below the surface and propagates upward through the Alfven/acoustic equipartition layer where it splits into upgoing slow (acoustic) and fast (magnetic) waves. The fast wave quickly reflects off the steep Alfven speed gradient, but around and above this reflection height it partially converts to Alfven waves, depending on the local relative inclinations of the background magnetic field and the wavevector. To measure the efficiency of this conversion to Alfven waves we calculate acoustic and magnetic energy fluxes. The particular amplitude and phase relations between the magnetic field and velocity oscillations help us to demonstrate that the waves produced are indeed Alfven waves. We find that the conversion to Alfven waves is particularly important for strongly inclined fields like those existing in sunspot penumbrae. Equally important is the magnetic field orientation with respect to the vertical plane of wave propagation, which we refer to as 'field azimuth'. For a field azimuth less than 90 Degree-Sign the generated Alfven waves continue upward, but above 90 Degree-Sign downgoing Alfven waves are preferentially produced. This yields negative Alfven energy flux for azimuths between 90 Degree-Sign and 180 Degree-Sign . Alfven energy fluxes may be comparable to or exceed acoustic fluxes, depending upon geometry, though computational exigencies limit their magnitude in our simulations.

  18. SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

    SciTech Connect

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, Maria; Balmaceda, Laura A. E-mail: edeluca@cfa.harvard.edu E-mail: lbalmaceda@icate-conicet.gob.ar

    2013-04-20

    The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.

  19. Infection with Trypanosoma cruzi TcII and TcI in free-ranging population of lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp): an 11-year follow-up

    PubMed Central

    Lisboa, Cristiane Varella; Monteiro, Rafael Veríssimo; Martins, Andreia Fonseca; Xavier, Samantha Cristina das Chagas; Lima, Valdirene dos Santos; Jansen, Ana Maria

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a review of the dataset resulting from the 11-years follow-up of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in free-ranging populations of Leontopithecus rosalia (golden lion tamarin) and Leontopithecus chrysomelas (golden-headed lion tamarin) from distinct forest fragments in Atlantic Coastal Rainforest. Additionally, we present new data regarding T. cruzi infection of small mammals (rodents and marsupials) that live in the same areas as golden lion tamarins and characterisation at discrete typing unit (DTU) level of 77 of these isolates. DTU TcII was found to exclusively infect primates, while TcI infected Didelphis aurita and lion tamarins. The majority of T. cruzi isolates derived from L. rosalia were shown to be TcII (33 out 42) Nine T. cruzi isolates displayed a TcI profile. Golden-headed lion tamarins demonstrated to be excellent reservoirs of TcII, as 24 of 26 T. cruzi isolates exhibited the TcII profile. We concluded the following: (i) the transmission cycle of T. cruzi in a same host species and forest fragment is modified over time, (ii) the infectivity competence of the golden lion tamarin population fluctuates in waves that peak every other year and (iii) both golden and golden-headed lion tamarins are able to maintain long-lasting infections by TcII and TcI. PMID:25946156

  20. Infection with Trypanosoma cruzi TcII and TcI in free-ranging population of lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp): an 11-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Lisboa, Cristiane Varella; Monteiro, Rafael Veríssimo; Martins, Andreia Fonseca; Xavier, Samantha Cristina das Chagas; Lima, Valdirene Dos Santos; Jansen, Ana Maria

    2015-05-01

    Here, we present a review of the dataset resulting from the 11-years follow-up of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in free-ranging populations of Leontopithecus rosalia (golden lion tamarin) and Leontopithecus chrysomelas (golden-headed lion tamarin) from distinct forest fragments in Atlantic Coastal Rainforest. Additionally, we present new data regarding T. cruzi infection of small mammals (rodents and marsupials) that live in the same areas as golden lion tamarins and characterisation at discrete typing unit (DTU) level of 77 of these isolates. DTU TcII was found to exclusively infect primates, while TcI infected Didelphis aurita and lion tamarins. The majority of T. cruzi isolates derived from L. rosalia were shown to be TcII (33 out 42) Nine T. cruzi isolates displayed a TcI profile. Golden-headed lion tamarins demonstrated to be excellent reservoirs of TcII, as 24 of 26 T. cruzi isolates exhibited the TcII profile. We concluded the following: (i) the transmission cycle of T. cruzi in a same host species and forest fragment is modified over time, (ii) the infectivity competence of the golden lion tamarin population fluctuates in waves that peak every other year and (iii) both golden and golden-headed lion tamarins are able to maintain long-lasting infections by TcII and TcI.