Science.gov

Sample records for 1990s population growth

  1. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  2. Three challenges of China's population in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Yang, Z

    1991-10-01

    China will encounter 3 challenges of its population problem in the 1990s. The 1st is the huge number of people born or population increase each year. The 3rd baby boom, which started at the mid-1980s, will last until abound 1997. The women entering into the age of peak childbearing (23 years old) exceed 11 million each year with an upper range of about 13 million. IN 1992, the number of women of fecund ages (22-29) in the whole country will reach 124 million, the largest number of fertile women in history. The net increase of population will be from 15.5 to 17.0 million for each hear. What is more serious is that the momentum of population increase will continue, instead of being checked by the year 2000. The next are the continuous increase of the aged population of 65 and over and the growing tendency of population aging ahead of economic development. China is a developing socialist country, huge in population, weak in economic development, with less-developed science, culture, and education. However, as a result of the decline in the proportion of children to the total population due to the decline in the birth rate in the 1970s, China's population has become an adult population from a young one in terms of the age structure, and will be an aged one very soon. China is facing the challenge of aging under economically less developed conditions. For developed countries, it took 80 years for the proportion of the aged population of 65 and over to increase from 7% to 17%; for China, it has taken only 40 years. It will certainly bring about a series of problems and difficulties upon the society to cope with such a huge number of elderly in an underdeveloped economy. The 3rd challenge is the increasing pressure on employment due to the continuous growth of working-age population (15-64). It is estimated that the working-age population will increase to 858 million by 2000, 20 million more than the sum of working-age population in all of the developed countries; and to

  3. Demographic momentum. International population assistance should be a continued priority during the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Merrick, T W

    1992-08-01

    . Although the needs for population assistance have changed over 29 years, there is still a need to give population the highest priority due to its impact on economic development. Maintaining the present levels and exceeding those levels are crucial for the 1990s. 9-10 billion dollars is an estimate of need. PMID:12343899

  4. Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

    2012-01-01

    We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

  5. The 1990s: last chance to prevent doubling of world population.

    PubMed

    Speidel, J J

    1990-03-01

    95% of all population growth occurs in developing countries. If growth continues to occur at its present rate, the world population of 5.3 billion will exceed 20 billion by the year 2070. Average worldwide family size can be decreased to 2.2 by 2015 if 75% of the world's couples used birth control, and the population would stabilize at 9.3 billion by 2095. In order to accomplish stabilization of growth, the world must increase spending on family planning from US $3.2 billion to US $10.5 billion. Much of this increase must come from developed countries. If the US increases aid from US $230 million per year to US $1.2 billion by the year 2000, the US would be providing a share proportionate to its income. This article cites the South Korean example as a model for population stabilization. Instead of efficient reproduction, we must now practice limited reproduction in order to survive.

  6. Growth, Distribution, and Poverty in Africa: Messages from the 1990s. Poverty Dynamics in Africa.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christiaensen, Luc; Demery, Lionel; Paternostro, Stefano

    This book reviews trends in household well-being in Africa during the 1990s. Using the better data sets now available, the main factors behind observed poverty changes are examined in eight countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, Mauritania, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. A broad view of poverty is taken, which includes income poverty and…

  7. U.S. Hispanics: Challenging Issues for the 1990s. Population Trends and Public Policy, Number 17.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valdivieso, Rafael; Davis, Cary

    The number of Hispanics in the United States reached 20 million in 1988, a 34% increase since 1980, reflecting growth that challenges U.S. policymakers in nearly every area, but most urgently in education, job training, and welfare. There is considerable diversity within the U.S. Hispanic community, but Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, and other…

  8. Pattern of declining blood pressure across replicate population surveys of the WHO MONICA project, mid-1980s to mid-1990s, and the role of medication

    PubMed Central

    Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh; Connaghan, John; Woodward, Mark; Tolonen, Hanna; Kuulasmaa, Kari

    2006-01-01

    Objective Declining mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were observed in most populations of the World Health Organization MONICA (monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s. We tested whether pooled results would show mean change associated with decline in high readings only, resulting from better antihypertensive medication, or with similar falls in low, middle, and high readings, implying other causes. Design Independent, random sample, cross sectional population surveys, each end of the MONICA decade. Setting 38 populations in 21 countries across four continents. Participants Design target in each survey of 200 participants in each 10 year age and sex group from age 35 to 64 Main outcome measures Changes in the population in mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and in low, middle, and high readings—the 20th, 50th, and 80th centiles—and the differences between these changes. Results Individual populations differed considerably, but pooling the 38 population results gave mean changes in systolic blood pressure of -2.2 mm Hg in men, -3.3 mm Hg in women, and in diastolic blood pressure of -1.4 mm Hg in men and -2.2 mm Hg in women (overall average -2.26 mm Hg, population median -1.55 mm Hg). Antihypertensive medication, associated with high readings, rose by 0.5% to 11.4%. However, average falls in low and middle blood pressure readings were so similar to those in high readings and in the mean that no effect from improving treatment of hypertension was detected. Results in contrasted subgroups were consistent. Conclusions Blood pressure fell across 38 MONICA populations at all levels of readings, with no differential fall in high readings attributable to better control of hypertension. Despite the importance of medication to individuals, in that decade other determinants of blood pressure lowering must have been more pervasive and powerful in whole populations. PMID:16531419

  9. Nutrition: prospects for the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Scrimshaw, N S

    1990-01-01

    For many decades there has been adequate information for the elimination of acute dietary deficiency diseases. Scurvy, beri-beri, and pellagra, once serious scourges, are now seen only rarely. The severe forms of protein-energy malnutrition, kwashiorkor and marasmus, have also decreased greatly. Nonetheless, mild to moderate forms of protein-energy deficiency, exacerbated by infection, continue to impair growth and development in a majority of the low-income pre-school age populations of most developing countries. Deficiencies of iron, iodine, and vitamin A are still widespread in developing countries. Fortunately, the success of the WHO/UNICEF "Child Survival and Development Revolution" in persuading most developing countries to introduce expanded programs of immunization, growth monitoring, and appropriate feeding of young children, control of diarrheal disease, and specific campaigns against avitaminosis A, iodine deficiency disorders, and the functional consequences of iron deficiency, will accelerate the decline of acute deficiency diseases in the developing world. Diets are changing among the more affluent in these countries, however, and it is time for them to stress dietary goals for the health of rich and poor alike. For the first time there is enough information regarding dietary risk factors for chronic disease to provide an opportunity in the 1990s to accelerate the dietary changes that have already brought significant health benefits to some populations in North America and Europe. The changes, which include a lower dietary intake of fat, particularly saturated fat, less salt, and more green and yellow vegetable and whole grain cereals, can be expected to influence favorably morbidity from cardiovascular diseases and some kinds of cancer. For maximum benefit, these measures need to be combined with the avoidance of obesity, reasonable physical activity, abstention from, or moderate use of, alcohol, and avoidance of tobacco in any form. Since there is

  10. Simulating Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byington, Scott

    1997-01-01

    Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

  11. Strategies for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chaffee, Ellen Earle

    1990-01-01

    Eight strategies are recommended to higher education in the 1990s including committing to improving quality; stressing customer service; increasing use of data and analysis in management; developing data on outcomes issues, processes, and behaviors; and working cooperatively with elementary and secondary education. (MLW)

  12. [Population Growth and Development].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clausen, A. W.

    Rapid population growth as a central development problem, the proper domain of government in reducing population growth, and effective measures which can be taken to reduce fertility are examined. Rapid population growth puts a brake on development because it exacerbates the difficult choice between higher consumption now and the investment needed…

  13. Population growth and economic growth.

    PubMed

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  14. Population growth and economic growth.

    PubMed

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  15. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  16. Impacts of Hispanic Population Growth on Rural Wages. Agricultural Economic Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newman, Constance

    Although earnings generally increased in rural areas in the 1990s, Hispanic population growth led to lower wages for at least one segment of the rural population--workers with a high school degree (skilled workers), particularly men in this skill group. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Current Population Survey, this report…

  17. Disaggregated analysis of US energy consumption in the 1990s: Evidence of the effects of the internet and rapid economic growth

    SciTech Connect

    Murtishaw, Scott; Schipper, Lee

    2001-07-01

    This paper decomposes US energy use from 1988 to 1998 and attributes the changes in energy use to three underlying factors: activity, structure, and intensity. For this study we use a bottom-up methodology, by separately decomposing delivered energy use in six sectors: travel, freight, manufacturing industries, non-manufacturing industries, residential, and services. The most commonly used indicator of energy efficiency in the total economy, the ratio of energy consumed to unit of GDP (E/GDP) created can often be misleading. The rapid decline in the E/GDP ratio in recent years has been used to support assertions that the Internet and information technologies in general have enabled improvements in energy efficiencies. However, our disaggregate analysis suggests that energy intensities on average are falling more slowly than ever before while actual energy use increased faster than at any time since 1970. The decline in the E/GDP ratio in the mid-to late 1990s owes much more to structural changes in the demand for energy services than to falling energy intensities.

  18. Teaching about Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otero, George G., Jr., Comp.

    This teaching guide contains 20 activities on population growth for students in grades 6-12. The purpose is to help students gain the skills, knowledge, and understanding of population dynamics so that they can make rational decisions and take responsible action regarding population matters and public policy. Activities are organized around the…

  19. Rapid population growth.

    PubMed

    1972-01-01

    At the current rate of population growth, world population by 2000 is expected to reach 7 billion or more, with developing countries accounting for some 5.4 billion, and economically advanced nations accounting for 1.6 billion. 'Population explosion' is the result of falling mortality rates and continuing high birth rates. Many European countries, and Japan, have already completed what is termed as demographic transition, that is, birth rates have fallen to below 20 births per 1000 population, death rates to 10/1000 population, and annual growth rates are 1% or less; annual growth rates for less developed countries ranged from 2 to 3.5%. Less developed countries can be divided into 3 groups: 1) countries with both high birth and death rates; 2) countries with high birth rates and low death rates; and 3) countries with intermediate and declining birth rates and low death rates. Rapid population growth has serious economic consequences. It encourages inequities in income distribution; it limits rate of growth of gross national product by holding down level of savings and capital investments; it exerts pressure on agricultural production and land; and it creates unemployment problems. In addition, the quality of education for increasing number of chidren is adversely affected, as high proportions of children reduce the amount that can be spent for the education of each child out of the educational budget; the cost and adequacy of health and welfare services are affected in a similar way. Other serious consequences of rapid population growth are maternal death and illness, and physical and mental retardation of children of very poor families. It is very urgent that over a billion births be prevented in the next 30 years to reduce annual population growth rate from the current 2% to 1% per year. PMID:12261450

  20. Can the world do better in the 1990s?

    PubMed

    Brown, L R

    1989-12-01

    To reduce further environmental damage to our planet, fossil fuels must no longer form the basis of the world economy. Further, nuclear power is proving to be too cost prohibitive. Society already pays tremendous amounts for building nuclear power plants, but also billions of US dollars to dismantle them and to safely dispose of their contents and building materials. Society must also address the problems of nuclear weapons production. Based on these factors, the Worldwatch Institute concludes that the only way we can live in an environmentally sustainable and politically acceptable future is to base our world economy on solar energy. Presently Japan operates under 1 of the most energy efficient systems in the world. The United States (US) requires almost twice the energy to produce a dollar's worth of gross national product than does Japan. Even if world land productivity could increase during the 1990s as fast as Japan raised its land productivity during the 1970s and 1980s, food output growth will still only be about half the projected rate of population growth. In addition, by boosting living conditions, Japan and China reduced their population growth rate in half within a decade and without today's contraceptives. Therefore by increasing the status of women and social and political commitment, developing countries (where populations often grow exponentially) can also do so. Environmental deterioration, as evidenced by soil erosion and deforestation, limits food production while the world's population grows. The US, a major world grain producer, has lost 11% of its total cropland, mainly due to overplowing in the 1970s. Japan should use its economic resources and experiences to lead the world in reducing population growth. PMID:12316166

  1. Completing School in Australia: Trends in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamb, Stephen

    1998-01-01

    After a period of dramatic growth in secondary school completion in Australia, school retention rates are declining. Analysis of state, system, geographic, social, and gender patterns suggests that during the 1990s the downturn in completion rate has been uneven; some groups who had come to rely on schooling during the 1980s for future economic…

  2. Global population growth.

    PubMed

    Langmore, J

    1992-07-01

    The global population passed 5 billion in 1987. In the year 2000 the world's population will be more than 6 billion, increasing by 90-100 million each year. About 95% of future demographic growth will take place in developing countries. The number of school age children is projected to increase from 940 million in 1980 to 1280 million by the year 2000. Under current labor force growth projections in developing countries, around 1.6 billion new jobs will have to be created between 1980 and 2025, with nearly 1 billion of them in Asia. Population often increases at a more rapid rate than agricultural growth. Food production per capita has declined in 70 developing countries. Much of the projected population increase will take place in environmentally fragile regions of the developing world. Population pressures contribute to deforestation, desertification, and scarcity of clean water. The United Nations Population Fund has estimated that in Asia over 43% of women not using family planning would like to postpone, space, or limit their childbearing. Over half of the world's couples of reproductive age are now using contraception. Family planning to postpone the first birth and to eliminate late child bearing would reduce both child loss and maternal illness and death. Both infant and maternal mortality are greater with higher order births. Reducing average family size is an effective way of reducing infant and maternal mortality. The World Bank has given high priority to population assistance, with large programs in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Population assistance provided by the Australian International Development Assistance Bureau totaled about $4.5 million during 1989-90 and is expected to be about $8 million during 1991-92. Australia should increase the proportion of its development assistance budget devoted to population, and family planning programs should increase to around $26 million in line with other major donors.

  3. Laws of population growth.

    PubMed

    Rozenfeld, Hernán D; Rybski, Diego; Andrade, José S; Batty, Michael; Stanley, H Eugene; Makse, Hernán A

    2008-12-01

    An important issue in the study of cities is defining a metropolitan area, because different definitions affect conclusions regarding the statistical distribution of urban activity. A commonly employed method of defining a metropolitan area is the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), based on rules attempting to capture the notion of city as a functional economic region, and it is performed by using experience. The construction of MSAs is a time-consuming process and is typically done only for a subset (a few hundreds) of the most highly populated cities. Here, we introduce a method to designate metropolitan areas, denoted "City Clustering Algorithm" (CCA). The CCA is based on spatial distributions of the population at a fine geographic scale, defining a city beyond the scope of its administrative boundaries. We use the CCA to examine Gibrat's law of proportional growth, which postulates that the mean and standard deviation of the growth rate of cities are constant, independent of city size. We find that the mean growth rate of a cluster by utilizing the CCA exhibits deviations from Gibrat's law, and that the standard deviation decreases as a power law with respect to the city size. The CCA allows for the study of the underlying process leading to these deviations, which are shown to arise from the existence of long-range spatial correlations in population growth. These results have sociopolitical implications, for example, for the location of new economic development in cities of varied size. PMID:19033186

  4. Wars of the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Firket, H

    2001-01-01

    The 40 wars of the past decade, all 'minor', have resulted in a total of more than two million deaths and 20 million refugees or displaced persons. Few have been the international wars typical of previous periods. Nine out of ten began as internal or civil wars, foreign intervention--when it occurred--being always secondary. The weapons used, the effects on the civilian populations, the type and extension of damages are different but equally destructive. The main causes of these conflicts are cultural or religious, rather than economic. The best attitudes to attempt to prevent or stop them are surveyed.

  5. Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

    PubMed

    Jha, S; Bawa, K S

    2006-06-01

    Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

  6. A turbocharger for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, E.R. )

    1991-07-01

    This paper reports that the large-bore engines of the 1970s and 1980s have seen tremendous amounts of technological improvements. The key buzzwords were: Lower the emissions, and improve the fuel consumption. As the 1990s approach dramatic improvements in specific outputs along with continued research to further improve emissions and fuel consumption. One of the keys to success will have to be the degree to which the industry responds with improvements in turbocharger performance. In 1985, Cooper Bessemer Rotating Products Division began a program to develop the turbocharger of the 1990s. This paper will describe the development of the CB turbocharger series from concept to early production.

  7. Law Library Service in the 1990's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    The Bookmark, 1990

    1990-01-01

    This issue of "The Bookmark" presents 20 articles focusing on various aspects of law library services in New York State. The articles are: (1) "Law Library Services in the 1990's" (Christine Bain); (2) "A Librarian's View of Legal Publishing Today" (Margaret Maes Axtmann); (3) "Legal Publishing--A Publisher's View" (Kenneth Lee Halajian); (4)…

  8. National security in the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Rich, M.D.

    1991-02-01

    The Rand Paper contains the text of a speech given at a luncheon co-sponsored by Town Hall of California and the Los Angeles Council of Engineers and Scientists on national security affairs in the 1990s. The speech was given at the Biltmore Hotel, Los Angeles, California, on February 19, 1991.

  9. Marketing ambulatory services in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Hicks, S

    1992-07-01

    The ability to predict, to adapt to change, and to develop strategic low cost marketing plans are the components essential to remaining financially solvent in today's health care environment. The marketing process is analogous to the nursing process and should support the institution's mission statement, philosophy, and goals. Managers who are able to empower their personnel to become the sales force and implement the marketing plan will be the survivors in the 1990s.

  10. Trend analysis of fertility in China in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Zhang, E; Su, R

    1996-01-01

    This article analyzes Chinese fertility rates during the 1990s. Fertility during the early 1990s dropped below replacement level. The concern is whether delayed marriage and childbearing will result in higher fertility in the mid- and late-1990s. Maintaining replacement level fertility will depend upon continued family planning efforts. Current low fertility is attributed to strong administrative family planning measures and controlled social and economic development. Challenges include the difficulty of providing access to family planning for the floating population, the unevenness of development between regions, the high fertility rates in some backward regions, and the desire among most farmers for two children, including one boy. Family planning workers must adjust strategies to the new socialist market economy in order to maintain effectiveness. The authors view future family planning efforts as "arduous and prolonged." Statistical reporting is still beset with problems of underreporting of births. The 1989 census reports total fertility as 2.25 children/woman, which may be too low by as much as 8%. Estimates for readjustments of data can never be as reliable as precise values. The authors consider that survey data in the 1990s on first marriage and first birth were quite reliable. The State Statistical Bureau reports from population-shift sample surveys that the total fertility rate was 2.01 in 1991, 1.86 in 1992, 1.85 in 1993, and 1.84 in 1994. The authors emphasize that fertility rate has a period effect and that changes must be viewed over a prolonged period of time. Analysis of the period effect reveals that age at first marriage increased during the early 1990s and the total first marriage rate was reduced to 0.90 in 1992. The one-child fertility rate was 0.94 in 1994. The interval to first birth fluctuated but was not significantly extended. Second-child fertility rates are gradually declining. The authors warn of the danger of birth "heaping" after the

  11. Population Growth: Crisis and Challenge.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beaton, John R., Ed.; Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.

    The proceedings of this first annual symposium on population growth considers the consequences of this growth, along with possible means of regulation. Topics of speeches include: Population Outlook in Asia (Irene Taeuber); Malnutrition is a Problem of Ecology (Paul Gyorgy); The Leisure Explosion (E. H. Storey); Effects of Pollution on Population…

  12. Enterprise storage report for the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Fred

    1992-01-01

    Data processing has become an increasingly vital function, if not the most vital function, in most businesses today. No longer only a mainframe domain, the data processing enterprise also includes the midrange and workstation platforms, either local or remote. This expanded view of the enterprise has encouraged more and more businesses to take a strategic, long-range view of information management rather than the short-term tactical approaches of the past. This paper will highlight some of the significant aspects of data storage in the enterprise for the 1990's.

  13. Mobile satellite communications in the 1990's

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Jai

    1992-07-01

    The evolution of Inmarsat global services from a single market and single service of the 1980's to all of the key mobile markets and a wide range of new terminals and services in the 1990's is described. An overview of existing mobile satellite services, as well as new services under implementation for introduction in the near and longer term, including a handheld satellite phone (Inmarsat-P), is provided. The initiative taken by Inmarsat in the integration of its global mobile satellite services with global navigation capability derived from GPS (Global Positioning System) and the GLONASS (Russian GPS) navigation satellite systems and the provision of an international civil overlay for GPS/GLONASS integrity and augmentation is highlighted. To complete the overview of the development of mobile satellite services in the 1990's, the known national and regional mobile satellite system plans and the various recent proposals for both orbiting and geostationary satellite systems for proving handheld satellite phone and/or data messaging services are described.

  14. Macroeconomic adjustment, food availability and nutrition status in Nigeria. A look at the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Igbedioh, S O

    1990-12-01

    Faced with balance of payment problems, declining commodity prices, and a corresponding reduction in foreign exchange earnings, Nigeria implemented a structural adjustment program in 1986. This step was taken in response to encouragement from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and was aimed to accomplish the following: find the true value of the official currency; overcome public sector inefficiency through improved public expenditure and parastatal rationalization; reschedule medium- and long-term debt to relieve debt burden; and encourage net foreign capital inflow while limiting foreign loans. Implementing and adhering to these macroeconomic adjustment policies has brought unprecedented inflation, lower real earnings, and increased malnutrition among lower income sectors of the population. The poor have suffered diminishing access to nutritious foods. Conscribed access to food and compromised nutritional status will most likely persist into the 1990s unless corrective policies are adopted. Appropriate policy would aim to increase the poor's access to food and limit population growth.

  15. Macroeconomic adjustment, food availability and nutrition status in Nigeria. A look at the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Igbedioh, S O

    1990-12-01

    Faced with balance of payment problems, declining commodity prices, and a corresponding reduction in foreign exchange earnings, Nigeria implemented a structural adjustment program in 1986. This step was taken in response to encouragement from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and was aimed to accomplish the following: find the true value of the official currency; overcome public sector inefficiency through improved public expenditure and parastatal rationalization; reschedule medium- and long-term debt to relieve debt burden; and encourage net foreign capital inflow while limiting foreign loans. Implementing and adhering to these macroeconomic adjustment policies has brought unprecedented inflation, lower real earnings, and increased malnutrition among lower income sectors of the population. The poor have suffered diminishing access to nutritious foods. Conscribed access to food and compromised nutritional status will most likely persist into the 1990s unless corrective policies are adopted. Appropriate policy would aim to increase the poor's access to food and limit population growth. PMID:12285940

  16. Computing possibilities in the mid 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Nash, T.

    1988-09-01

    This paper describes the kind of computing resources it may be possible to make available for experiments in high energy physics in the mid and late 1990s. We outline some of the work going on today, particularly at Fermilab's Advanced Computer Program, that projects to the future. We attempt to define areas in which coordinated R and D efforts should prove fruitful to provide for on and off-line computing in the SSC era. Because of extraordinary components anticipated from industry, we can be optimistic even to the level of predicting million VAX equivalent on-line multiprocessor/data acquisition systems for SSC detectors. Managing this scale of computing will require a new approach to large hardware and software systems. 15 refs., 6 figs.

  17. Physics through the 1990s: An overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The volume details the interaction of physics and society, and presents a short summary of the progress in the major fields of physics and a summary of the other seven volumes of the Physics through the 1990s series, issues and recommended policy changes are described regarding funding, education, industry participation, small-group university research and large facility programs, government agency programs, and computer database needs. Three supplements report in detail on international issues in physics (the US position in the field, international cooperation and competition-especially on large projects, freedom for scientists, free flow of information, and education of foreign students), the education and supply of physicists (the changes in US physics education, employment and manpower, and demographics of the field), and the organization and support of physics (government, university, and industry research; facilities; national laboratories; and decision making). An executive summary contains recommendations for maintaining excellence in physics. A glossary of scientific terms is appended.

  18. Physics through the 1990s: An overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    The volume details the interaction of physics and society, and presents a short summary of the progress in the major fields of physics and a summary of the other seven volumes of the Physics through the 1990s series, issues and recommended policy changes are described regarding funding, education, industry participation, small-group university research and large facility programs, government agency programs, and computer database needs. Three supplements report in detail on international issues in physics (the US position in the field, international cooperation and competition-especially on large projects, freedom for scientists, free flow of information, and education of foreign students), the education and supply of physicists (the changes in US physics education, employment and manpower, and demographics of the field), and the organization and support of physics (government, university, and industry research; facilities; national laboratories; and decision making). An executive summary contains recommendations for maintaining excellence in physics. A glossary of scientific terms is appended.

  19. Explosive Welding in the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lalwaney, N. S.; Linse, V. D.

    1985-01-01

    Explosive bonding is a unique joining process with the serious potential to produce composite materials capable of fulfilling many of the high performance materials capable of fulfilling many of the high performance materials needs of the 1990's. The process has the technological versatility to provide a true high quality metallurgical compatible and incompatible systems. Metals routinely explosively bonded include a wide variety of combinations of reactive and refractory metals, low and high density metals and their alloys, corrosion resistant and high strength alloys, and common steels. The major advantage of the process is its ability to custom design and engineer composites with physical and/or mechanical properties that meet a specific or unusual performance requirement. Explosive bonding offers the designer unique opportunities in materials selection with unique combinations of properties and high integrity bonds that cannot be achieved by any other metal joining process. The process and some applications are discussed.

  20. [Population ethics and growth].

    PubMed

    Boim, D

    1988-01-01

    In order to formulate and implement a national demographic policy, various areas of science are called upon; however, since human lives are involved, ethical aspects play an important role not only in broad ideological terms, e.g, concerning overpopulation, but whenever practical decisions affecting technology and human resources are made. The article describes how the Catholic Church proposes certain "utopian" views or interpretations as part of an ethical "dynamism" and plurality needed when addressing the problem of overpopulation. 3 main starting point are defined for the determination of a population ethic: 1) ethics defined in terms of "nature," 2) in terms of the "human person," and 3) in terms of social "dialectic" involvement. The first point stresses the natural order of things as prescribed by God and impugns any birth control method; however, so-called natural birth control methods are allowed. The second point suggests that the human person is ethically center stage, a modernized position taken by the Church in tune with social realities and man's inherent intelligence. The primacy of live and responsibility is stressed as opposed to mere biological processes. Following this view, use of contraceptive, and even sterilization is allowed; however, abortion is excluded, since it means the elimination of a human life. The problem of overpopulation should be solved within the individual or micro-social context. The third point holds that it would be extremely myopic to reduce the position of the Church to advocating exclusively natural birth control methods while excluding social involvement. A "cosmic" view of faith would end putting material well-being before individual personal lives, would alert against egoism disguised as quality of life enhancement, and ultimately result in socially responsible fertility. In conclusion, the Church acknowledges that its contribution to the question of population ethics occurs in a pluralistic society that does not

  1. Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, J.; Monson, D.; Schneider, K.

    2006-01-01

    3In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at some islands in the 1960s/70s to < 5% of estimated carrying capacity by the late 1990s. The results of this study indicate an improved overall health of sea otters over the period of decline and suggest that limited nutritional resources were not the cause of the observed reduced population abundance. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the decline was caused by increased killer whale predation.

  2. Canada's population: growth and dualism.

    PubMed

    Beaujot, R P

    1978-04-01

    In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

  3. Population growth, inequality and poverty.

    PubMed

    Rodgers, G

    1983-01-01

    In this discussion of population growth, inequality, and poverty, the type of relationships that can be observed in intercountry comparisons are explored, reviewing the findings of several other authors, presenting some new estimates using an International Labor Office data bank, considering some basic conceptual problems, and examining some of the theoretical and empirical issues that call for investigation at the national level. Intercountry comparisons, despite their limitations, appear to be the easiest starting point for empirical analysis. The approach adopted by most researchers has been to select 1 or more population indicators and a measure of national income inequality and to explain intercountry differences in 1 or both of these variables in terms of each other and of other indicators of economic and social development. Underlying this methodology is the assumption that there are aspects of demographic and economic change that are common to all countries included in the study, so that differences between countries give some guide to the likely evolution over time within any 1 country. This can be accepted at best with reservations, but given the scarcity of data on the evolution of inequality over time, a working hypothesis of this type appears unavoidable. But, as many of the factors likely to cause population growth and inequality operate over extended periods of time, a dynamic model is indicated. A simpler model, which pays particular attention to lags and variations over time, may generate new insights. A summary of the results of a new international cross-section analysis set up on these lines is presented. Results suggest that contrary to expectations, reducing population growth does not seem to generate longterm benefits for the poor in this model, though some short term gains are found. Increasing equality does appear to generate some decline in population growth, as well as persistent gains in incomes among the poor, but the reductions in

  4. Food production and population growth.

    PubMed

    Pereira, H C

    1993-07-01

    Governments have frequently ignored the issue of population consumption exceeding the rates of renewal of natural resources. At the UN Conference on the Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, the issue of population growth was ignored in the agenda and action plan. In 1974, the UN World Population Conference suggested population stability would be possible if standards of living were raised. Industrialized nations spent half a century of active interference with the stability of global populations and failed to slow growth. 27 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical zones, have an average cereal yield of under 1 ton per hectare, when improved seed and basic minimum fertilizer could yield 2 tons per hectare. Efforts to increase yields by the Consultative Group for International Agricultural research in 13 international centers resulted in global annual increases of about 50 million tons of grain (wheat and rice). Rainfed agriculture did not benefit as much because of climatic conditions. Where varieties of triticale, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, chick peas, cowpeas, beans, and cassava have helped increase food production, population growth has outstripped the gains. Agricultural fertilizers have been unfairly blamed for soil nutrient losses. Because of the age structure of population, the expected population growth can only be addressed through development of higher yields, new strains resistant to disease, and fertilizers. Slow release phosphates for tropical soils are needed. Shortages of domestic fuel divert much needed farmyard manure and composted crop residues. About 400 million tons of dung are thus wasted annually; food grain harvests are thus reduced by 14 million tons. About 50% of the 1133 million poorest people will live in Asia and another 25% will live in Sub-Saharan Africa, living on a total degraded area of 1219 million hectares. Imbalance between food supply and population need to be addressed on an effective international scale.

  5. Nutrition, Development, and Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Alan

    1973-01-01

    Focuses on the problem of malnutrition in developing countries through a description of its interrelationships with human development, national economies, economic growth and income, agricultural advances, the crisis in infant feeding practices, new foods, and the population dilemma. Outlines possible future policy directions to significantly…

  6. Population Growth: Family Planning Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.; Taylor, N. Burwell G., Ed.

    These proceedings of the second annual symposium on population growth bring together speeches and panel discussions on family planning programs. Titles of speeches delivered are: Communicating Family Planning (Mrs. Jean Hutchinson); Effects of New York's Abortion Law Change (Dr. Walter Rogers); The Law and Birth Control, Sterilization and Abortion…

  7. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  8. Political economy of population growth.

    PubMed

    Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

    1987-01-01

    Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

  9. Population growth and foreign policy.

    PubMed

    Flood, P J

    1978-04-01

    Australian foreign policy is examined in light of the population issue and its relationships to its developing Asian neighbors. Rapid population growth has been a 20th-century phenomenon. In the ESCAP region, almost all governments are anxious to reduce growth rates and welcome international assistance for population programs. The motivation of these governments seems to be both political and economic. Asian countries do not share the view expressed at Bucharest by Latin American and African representatives that high population growth rates are not a problem. Results of national family planning programs in 16 developing Asian countries are assessed. Major fertility decline has only occurred so far in the most prosperous of these countries. Future fertility trends are hard to predict. Present inadequate knowledge of the determinants of human fertility and limited knowledge regarding fertility limitation techniques hamper progress in population reduction. Australia has aided these countries in demographic training and data collection. For both economic and humanitarian reasons, this aid should be extended to program implementation.

  10. Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.

    2016-04-01

    We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

  11. Nonmetro Poverty: Assessing the Effect of the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jolliffe, Dean

    2003-01-01

    During the 1990s, the poverty rate in nonmetropolitan areas declined to a record low of 13.4 percent. Drawing on census data, aspects of nonmetro poverty during the 1990s are outlined, including effects of urbanization, regional differences, racial and ethnic differences, importance of family structure, needs for assistance and human services,…

  12. NASA scientific and technical information for the 1990s

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cotter, Gladys A.

    1990-01-01

    Projections for NASA scientific and technical information (STI) in the 1990s are outlined. NASA STI for the 1990s will maintain a quality bibliographic and full-text database, emphasizing electronic input and products supplemented by networked access to a wide variety of sources, particularly numeric databases.

  13. Environmental impact of population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naylor, Rosamond; Matson, Pamela

    Earth's population currently numbers 5.4 billion; even given optimistic assumptions for reduction in growth rates, the number will double by the middle of the next century with most of the increase in the developing countries. Rapid population growth in the developing world raises the fundamental dilemma of how to alleviate chronic hunger and poverty in the short run while preserving the atmosphere and ecosystem services required for long-term human and biospheric sustenance. This dilemma, and the compromises required to solve it, were discussed by twenty-five researchers from five countries at the Aspen Global Change Institute 1992 Summer Science Session III, Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible?, held from August 16 to 28, in Aspen, Colo.

  14. Population growth can be checked.

    PubMed

    Shukla, J P

    Since independence, India's population size has doubled. The rate of growth was 2.5% during 1971-81, an increase from the rate of 2.15% observed during the 1951-61 period. The increase indicated that efforts to decrease population growth have not succeeded. The implications with respect to food, housing, clothing, education, and health facilities, which are fundamental to improving the physical quality of life, are severe. This demographic trend is a serious impediment to progress. The population growth is due to a constant birthrate and a sharp decline in mortality. Reducing the birthrate is necessary to reduce the rate of growth. An attitudinal change adopting the norm of family limitation should be encouraged through propaganda, socioeconomic programs, and religious and cultural organizations. Other measures to bring about a decline in the birthrate include: increasing the marriage age, and expanding educational and employment opportunities for women and girls. These measures will require substantial effort and time. Incentives may show more immediate effects. Monetary incentives are not desired because of the possibility of misuse. However the government could assume responsibility for the education and guarantee employment of children of couples who have only one child, and provide free education to children of couples with only 2 children. These incentives are not likely to be misused, can be available to all segments of the population, and involve no immediate large financial burden on the government. In addition, scholarships to the Harijan students should be limited to 2 per family. If these measures are accepted, they could quickly reduce the birth rate. PMID:12311944

  15. Into the Video Age: Open University Television in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkwood, Adrian

    1990-01-01

    Discussion of developments in British television broadcasting that affect educational television focuses on Open University television productions. Topics discussed include advantages of broadcasting for distance education; growth in the use of video cassettes; current access to video equipment; and possible future developments for the 1990s.…

  16. [Population growth and the environment].

    PubMed

    Hogan, D J

    1991-01-01

    The impact of population growth on the enviornment has been extensively researched; it consists of the depletion of resources (agricultural land absorbed by urban expansion, loss of soils, desertification, loss of biodiversity, less availability of minerals, dwindling of petroleum reserves) and the degradation of natural resources (air and water pollution). For politicians, journalists, and environmentalists, population growth is identified as the principal villain, which is a unidirectional and negative opinion. Demography is supposed to examine the negative and positive effects of the environment-population relationship; however, it is postulated that there has not been much produced in the last 2 centuries in this area. Examination of the research literature does not indicate any view that transcends the Malthusian vision, although a few empirical studies exist (Hogan, 1989). Durham (1979) identified the replacement of subsistence agriculture by export-oriented agriculture as the key factor in overpopulation in El Salvador and Honduras that led to migrations and international conflicts. Tudela (1987) related a similar process in the Mexican state of Tabasco, where a period of malnutrition was accompanied by the expansion of export agriculture and nutritional improvements emanated only from recapturing subsistence agriculture. Fearnside (1986) researched the dynamics of the occupation and destruction of Amazonia. However, Kahn and Simon went further and denied the existence of real environmental problems: population is the ultimate resource, and the more minds, the more good ideas and solutions for any problem. However, in all these cases of pure or modified Malthusianism the relation of population/resources is reduced to a unidimensional relationship; and fertility, mortality, migration, marriage, and age structure receive little attention. A prime candidate for the attention of population specialists should be migration and patterns of settlement and their

  17. Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stauffer, Cheryl Lynn, Ed.

    This booklet focuses on eight elements of population dynamics: "Population Growth and Distribution"; "Natural Increase and Future Growth"; "Effect of Migration on Population Growth"; "Three Patterns of Population Change"; "Patterns of World Urbanization"; "The Status of Women"; "World Health"; and "Environmental Relationships." Charts and graphs…

  18. Population growth and global warming.

    PubMed

    Short, R V

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming - the oral contraceptive pill. PMID:25478068

  19. Population growth and global warming.

    PubMed

    Short, R V

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming - the oral contraceptive pill.

  20. Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia.

    PubMed

    Greenspan, A

    1994-12-01

    Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water

  1. Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia.

    PubMed

    Greenspan, A

    1994-12-01

    Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water

  2. World Food Prospects for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tarrant, John R.

    1990-01-01

    Addresses world hunger issues and the increasing world population. Sees continued imbalance between supply and demand. Points out Europe and the United States are dealing with surplus production, whereas developing nations continue to import needed food. Argues solving hunger problems requires eliminating poverty through development programs.…

  3. The challenge of population growth.

    PubMed

    Smith, A W

    1984-03-01

    A precarious balance exists on earth between food and people, and at this time 800 million people are starving or close to starvation. When agriculture began, say 10,000 years ago, human populations were low. They stayed roughly in balance with the food supply. After agriculture, food supplies increased as did populations. The discovery of the New World opened vast resources, more land. Human numbers began to climb. Inventions and machines increased the ability to exploit resources. With modern medicine came a decline in death rates while birthrates remained high. The result is the 20th century population now totals 4.7 billion. By 2000, it will probably reach 6.1 billion and 7.8 billion by 2020. There will be insufficient cropland to produce the food all these people will need. People have been moving into sprawling urban centers of the poor countries. They come in search of jobs because there is not enough land to support them in rural areas. They increase the numbers of the unemployed and live in squalid shanty towns. Each agricultural or industrial advance that has occurred has been overwhelmed by ever increasing numbers of people in many less developed nations. There appears to be no "catching up" with the world's soaring rate of population. About 40 years ago this dilemma began to alarm some people. Fairfield Osborn and William Vogt believed that food and economic aid should continue but would be only a stopgap until developing countries were able to control their population growth. This meant cutting the birthrate. They reasoned that the best way to accomplish this was to educate people about contraceptives and other methods of limiting fertility. Private foundations funded educational programs, and many governments began giving out contraceptives at little or no cost. Despite such efforts, populations continued to increase in places that could least support more people. Already controversial, population control programs began to offer various incentives to

  4. The Bellagio Declaration: overcoming hunger in the 1990's.

    PubMed

    Alloo, F; Arizpe, L; Belford, T S; Clark, J; Csanadi, J; Davies, P J; Emmerij, L; George, S; Hyden, G; Jonsson, U

    1989-01-01

    In November 1989, 23 leading hunger experts met in Bellagio, Italy, issues a document called the "Bellagio Declaration: Overcoming Hunger in the 1990s." The report lists 4 achievable goals: eliminate famine deaths; end hunger in half of the world's poorest households; reduce by half malnutrition of mothers and small children; and eradicate iodine and vitamin A deficiencies. Famine deaths can be eliminated by setting up early-warning systems and longer-term relief objectives. The only remaining obstacle is how to prevent warring nations from blocking food deliveries and destroying food. Hunger can be eliminated in half the world's poor households by giving the poor access to resources and credit, rehabilitating degraded ecosystems, using sustainable farming, and using existing markets to distribute food equitably. Malnutrition can be halved by sustained breastfeeding, and supplementation of food and micronutrients. Iodine and vitamin A deficiencies can be eliminated by giving iodized oil injections, vitamin A capsules and iodized salt. Ways of dealing with obstacles such as population, deforestation, soil and water shortages, pollution, global warming and capital deficits in the South are discussed. There is hope that these goals can be attained because of the outbreak of peace and democracy, freeing up substantial portions of the 1 trillion US dollars spent on defense; abatement of feat of worldwide economic collapse; and evolution of a worldwide logistic system to provide emergency food aid.

  5. The Bellagio Declaration: overcoming hunger in the 1990's.

    PubMed

    Alloo, F; Arizpe, L; Belford, T S; Clark, J; Csanadi, J; Davies, P J; Emmerij, L; George, S; Hyden, G; Jonsson, U

    1989-01-01

    In November 1989, 23 leading hunger experts met in Bellagio, Italy, issues a document called the "Bellagio Declaration: Overcoming Hunger in the 1990s." The report lists 4 achievable goals: eliminate famine deaths; end hunger in half of the world's poorest households; reduce by half malnutrition of mothers and small children; and eradicate iodine and vitamin A deficiencies. Famine deaths can be eliminated by setting up early-warning systems and longer-term relief objectives. The only remaining obstacle is how to prevent warring nations from blocking food deliveries and destroying food. Hunger can be eliminated in half the world's poor households by giving the poor access to resources and credit, rehabilitating degraded ecosystems, using sustainable farming, and using existing markets to distribute food equitably. Malnutrition can be halved by sustained breastfeeding, and supplementation of food and micronutrients. Iodine and vitamin A deficiencies can be eliminated by giving iodized oil injections, vitamin A capsules and iodized salt. Ways of dealing with obstacles such as population, deforestation, soil and water shortages, pollution, global warming and capital deficits in the South are discussed. There is hope that these goals can be attained because of the outbreak of peace and democracy, freeing up substantial portions of the 1 trillion US dollars spent on defense; abatement of feat of worldwide economic collapse; and evolution of a worldwide logistic system to provide emergency food aid. PMID:12343252

  6. Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Häkkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B

    2004-04-23

    Observations of sea surface height reveal that substantial changes have occurred over the past decade in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean. TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data show that subpolar sea surface height increased during the 1990s, and the geostrophic velocity derived from altimeter data exhibits declining subpolar gyre circulation. Combining the data from earlier satellites, we find that subpolar circulation may have been weaker in the late 1990s than in the late 1970s and 1980s. Direct current-meter observations in the boundary current of the Labrador Sea support the weakening circulation trend of the 1990s and, together with hydrographic data, show that the mid- to late 1990s decline extends deep in the water column. Analysis of the local surface forcing suggests that the 1990s buoyancy forcing has a dynamic effect consistent with altimetric and hydrographic observations: A weak thermohaline forcing allows the decay of the domed structure of subpolar isopycnals and weakening of circulation.

  7. Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Häkkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B

    2004-04-23

    Observations of sea surface height reveal that substantial changes have occurred over the past decade in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean. TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data show that subpolar sea surface height increased during the 1990s, and the geostrophic velocity derived from altimeter data exhibits declining subpolar gyre circulation. Combining the data from earlier satellites, we find that subpolar circulation may have been weaker in the late 1990s than in the late 1970s and 1980s. Direct current-meter observations in the boundary current of the Labrador Sea support the weakening circulation trend of the 1990s and, together with hydrographic data, show that the mid- to late 1990s decline extends deep in the water column. Analysis of the local surface forcing suggests that the 1990s buoyancy forcing has a dynamic effect consistent with altimetric and hydrographic observations: A weak thermohaline forcing allows the decay of the domed structure of subpolar isopycnals and weakening of circulation. PMID:15087505

  8. Population and growth causality in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Kapuria-foreman, V

    1995-07-01

    This study empirically tests the null hypotheses of no causality between population growth and economic growth and of no causality between economic growth and population growth in 15 developing countries. The model follows the Cheng Hsiao form with lag lengths to minimize Akaike's Final Prediction Error (FPE). Equations are run separately for each country. Lag lengths and Granger causality test were chosen according to three steps. 1) Each of the variables was regressed on its own lagged values with a maximum lag of five years. A lag length was chosen that minimized FPE, which was calculated for each regression. 2) Bivariate regressions were run with a fixed lag length for population growth and mixed lag lengths for the other variable, until the lag length which minimized FPE was determined. 3) The last step involved checking the lag length of population growth by keeping the lag fixed for economic growth. The economic growth measure was gross domestic product per capita. Findings indicate that in seven countries the null hypothesis of no causality between population growth and economic growth, either positive or negative, cannot be rejected (Ghana, Sri Lanka, Bolivia, Philippines, Syria, Thailand, and Argentina). In Nepal, India, China, Guatemala, Peru, Turkey, Chile, and Mexico lagged values of population growth improve predictions of economic growth. Higher economic growth has no significant effect on population growth rates in Nepal, Bolivia, Philippines, Guatemala, Peru, Thailand, Argentina, and Mexico. Interaction between economic growth and population growth was found in India, China, Turkey, and Chile. The direction of causation tests indicate that population growth has a significant positive impact on income growth in China, Guatemala, Turkey, Chile, and Mexico. India shows a negative impact of population growth on income. A significant negative impact of economic growth on population growth is evident only in Sri Lanka. There is weak evidence of a

  9. Analysis of residential, industrial and commercial sector responses to potential electricity supply constraints in the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Fisher, Z.J.; Fang, J.M.; Lyke, A.J.; Krudener, J.R.

    1986-09-01

    There is considerable debate over the ability of electric generation capacity to meet the growing needs of the US economy in the 1990s. This study provides new perspective on that debate and examines the possibility of power outages resulting from electricity supply constraints. Previous studies have focused on electricity supply growth, demand growth, and on the linkages between electricity and economic growth. This study assumes the occurrence of electricity supply shortfalls in the 1990s and examines the steps that homeowners, businesses, manufacturers, and other electricity users might take in response to electricity outages.

  10. Global environmental security: Research and policy strategies for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Lazaro, M.A.; Wang, Hua.

    1992-01-01

    The subject of global environmental change is emerging as one of the most hotly debated international issues for the 1990s. In fact, our earth system has undergone a nature-induced gradual change in climate on both a temporal scale that spans over millions of years and a spatial scale ranging from regional to transcontinental. Pollutant emissions associated with population growth and industrial activities manifest the anthropogenic climatic forcing that has been superimposed on the background of natural climate fluctuations. Our incomplete understanding of the global impacts of environmental pollution on the earth systems (atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere), however, make the prediction of the timing, magnitude, and patterns of future global change uncertain. This paper examines the science and policy background of global environmental change. The major scientific uncertainties and policy issues confronting decision makers are identified; and the scientific framework, as well as current national and international research programs aimed at resolving the scientific uncertainties, are discussed. A coherent, stable, and flexible policy is needed to provide a foundation for coordinated international-interagency programs of observation, research, analysis, and international negotiation toward a policy consensus concerning global environmental security. On the basis of what is currently known about global change, recommendations are presented on both near-term and long-term policy option decisions.

  11. Global environmental security: Research and policy strategies for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Lazaro, M.A.; Wang, Hua

    1992-09-01

    The subject of global environmental change is emerging as one of the most hotly debated international issues for the 1990s. In fact, our earth system has undergone a nature-induced gradual change in climate on both a temporal scale that spans over millions of years and a spatial scale ranging from regional to transcontinental. Pollutant emissions associated with population growth and industrial activities manifest the anthropogenic climatic forcing that has been superimposed on the background of natural climate fluctuations. Our incomplete understanding of the global impacts of environmental pollution on the earth systems (atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere), however, make the prediction of the timing, magnitude, and patterns of future global change uncertain. This paper examines the science and policy background of global environmental change. The major scientific uncertainties and policy issues confronting decision makers are identified; and the scientific framework, as well as current national and international research programs aimed at resolving the scientific uncertainties, are discussed. A coherent, stable, and flexible policy is needed to provide a foundation for coordinated international-interagency programs of observation, research, analysis, and international negotiation toward a policy consensus concerning global environmental security. On the basis of what is currently known about global change, recommendations are presented on both near-term and long-term policy option decisions.

  12. Hospital-physician alignment: the 1990s versus now.

    PubMed

    Harbeck, Clayton

    2011-04-01

    Although the employment model was a bust in the 1990s, it can be successful today if hospitals: Allow physicians to shape health system strategy. Engage physicians and offer opportunities for leadership. Develop best practices to share across physician practices. Use management services organizations to add efficiency and profitability. Use technology wisely.

  13. Shakespeare for the 1990s: A Multicultural Tempest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carey-Webb, Allen

    1993-01-01

    Argues that William Shakespeare's "The Tempest" is the play that is best suited for the high school English curriculum of the 1990s. Discusses historical and critical aspects the play's key themes. Shows ways of using the play in high school classes, and describes 19 works to read alongside of"The Tempest." (HB)

  14. Education and Inequalities in Rural Vietnam in the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belanger, Daniele; Liu, Jianye

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the determinants of children's schooling during the 1990s in rural areas of Vietnam. It focuses on the impact of family attributes on the likelihood of children remaining in school or leaving during the primary and secondary school years. Using data from the Vietnam Living Standard Survey (VLSS) of 1992-93 and 1997-98, the…

  15. Transpersonal Social Work: A Theory for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cowley, Au-Deane S.

    1993-01-01

    Notes that transpersonal psychology contains growing body of literature and theory related to spiritual dimension of human nature and higher states of consciousness. Sees this approach as especially relevant for social work practitioners who are combating social ills of 1990s that manifest as violence, addiction, and spiritual malaise. (Author/NB)

  16. Changing Contexts for Counselor Preparation in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hackney, Harold, Ed.

    The five chapters in this monograph provide guidelines for counselors in the 1990s who will be faced with such societal issues as substance abuse, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), teenage pregnancy, youth unemployment, homelessness, crime and delinquency, and school dropouts. "The Contemporary Counselor in a Changed World" (Harold…

  17. Overcoming Learned Helplessness: Managerial Strategies for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnhold, Rose Marie; Razak, W. Nevell

    1991-01-01

    Discusses problems of work force quality in the United States in the 1990s, strategies for managerial response to these problems, and sources of employee resistance to change. Notes that business and industry may be forced to hire minorities and women with orientations to self and work different from those held by white middle-class men.…

  18. Prospects for Physics in the 1990's Surveyed.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robinson, Arthur L.

    1986-01-01

    A National Academy of Science report ("Physics Through the 1990's") says that American physics has been a highly diversified and productive enterprise, but continued excellence cannot be taken for granted. Progress in six subfields (elementary particle, nuclear, condensed-matter, atomic/molecular, plasma/fluid, and gravitation/cosmology physics)…

  19. Education in the 1990's: A Demographic View.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia, Ernest F.

    Since 1975, the United States has experienced the largest wave of immigration since the beginning of the century. This demographic fact holds important implications for education in the 1990s. First, because the birthrate among recent immigrants is relatively high, an increasing number of first generation Americans will enter the school system. As…

  20. Population size, distribution and growth in Iran.

    PubMed

    Kamiar, M

    1985-01-01

    The author examines population size, distribution, and growth in Iran using data for 1966, 1976 census data, and some historical data for the nineteenth century. "This paper discusses changes in the size of population through time, population distribution, and regional patterns of population growth of the 23 provinces. It has been argued in this paper that because of a large family size norm as a religious duty to increase the numbers of the Islamic faith, early age at marriage, especially among females, common practice of polygamy, and the war with Iraq, population will grow even faster. It is concluded that population policy must be integrated into the national development plans."

  1. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  2. Population growth: ecological success or development handicap?

    PubMed

    Coleman, D

    1991-01-01

    "This paper considers whether biological criteria of reproductive success are useful in considering the causes and consequences of...human population growth. Particular attention is given to the relative rates of growth of different human groups. The paper considers mechanisms of human population regulation, their classification as 'demographic regimes', and the relative importance of 'positive' and 'preventive' checks. It concludes that while in general rapid population growth now usually confers disadvantages in terms of human welfare, more traditional interpretations may still be appropriate in view of, for example, the increasing political and social influence enjoyed by rapidly increasing minorities compared with other populations in the same society which have lower rates of reproduction."

  3. Population aging and endogenous economic growth.

    PubMed

    Prettner, Klaus

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

  4. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    PubMed

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  5. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    PubMed

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  6. How population growth affects linkage disequilibrium.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Alan R

    2014-08-01

    The "LD curve" relates the linkage disequilibrium (LD) between pairs of nucleotide sites to the distance that separates them along the chromosome. The shape of this curve reflects natural selection, admixture between populations, and the history of population size. This article derives new results about the last of these effects. When a population expands in size, the LD curve grows steeper, and this effect is especially pronounced following a bottleneck in population size. When a population shrinks, the LD curve rises but remains relatively flat. As LD converges toward a new equilibrium, its time path may not be monotonic. Following an episode of growth, for example, it declines to a low value before rising toward the new equilibrium. These changes happen at different rates for different LD statistics. They are especially slow for estimates of [Formula: see text], which therefore allow inferences about ancient population history. For the human population of Europe, these results suggest a history of population growth.

  7. Improved zircon iron corals for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Decker, C. )

    1992-03-01

    CIBA-GEIGY/Drakenfeld Colors is dedicated to the research and development of consistent and cost-effective ceramic stains for the whitewares industry. After identifying the trends in color for the 1990s. CIBA-GEIGY/Drakenfeld Colors initiated an extensive R D project to improve zircon ion corals for the whitewares industry. These color trends indicated a need for stronger and cleaner zircon iron corals. This paper discusses the chemistry and crystal structure of zircon iron corals. A historical review of Drakenfeld corals will also be presented. The most recent development in Drakenfeld corals will then be compared to other commercially available zircon iron corals. Taking into consideration these comparisons, conclusions will be drawn suggesting the coral of choice for the 1990s.

  8. Flux-vector splitting for the 1990s

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vanleer, Bram

    1991-01-01

    The development of flux-vector splitting through the 1970s and 1980s is reviewed. Attention is given to the diffusive nature of flux-vector splitting, which makes it an undesirable technique for approximating the inviscid fluxes in a Navier-Stokes solver. Several proposed improvements, including a brand new one, are discussed and illustrated by a simple, yet revealing, numerical test case. Finally, an outlook for flux-vector splitting in the 1990s is presented.

  9. Teaching the Vietnam War in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franklin, H. Bruce

    For an instructor who has been teaching the Vietnam War for over 30 years, the War has been teaching him for even longer. One of the objectives in teaching the Vietnam War in the 1990s is what it meant to teach the Vietnam War in the 1960s. It is easy to forget that the antiwar movement began as an attempt to educate the government and the nation,…

  10. Metropolitan population growth in Arab countries.

    PubMed

    Vaidyanathan, K E

    1977-01-01

    A study or urban population growth in Arab countries has 3 objectives: 1) examination at the micro level of recent demographic trends in selected metropolitan areas of the Arab world and their relationship to changes in the total and urban populations in the respective countries; 2) estimation of net migration by sex and broad age groups for each metropolitan area; and 3) analysis of the pattern of variation in the metropolitan growth rates and their components, migration and natural increase. The study covers the cities proper or urban agglomerations, which includes the suburbs, whose population exceeded 100,000 in the most recent census. Altogether, the study covers 49 metropolitan areas from 9 Arab countries--Algeria; Morocco; Tunisia; Libya; Egypt; Sudan; Syria; Iraq; and Kuwait. Analysis revealed that metropolitan growth rates do follow geographic patterns. In countries with an oil-based economy, metropolitan growth rates are high; in countries with unexploited resources they are slightly below the 1st group; and countries which have pressure on land have low metropolitan growth rates. Population size of the metropolitan area appears to be an important factor associated with variations in metropolitan growth rates and net migration rates. Natural increase emerges as the predominant factor in metropolitan growth, but the differentials in the growth rates are more clearly associated with variations in net migration rates. As all the possibilities of analysis of relationships of metropolitan growth have not been exhausted, it is proposed to examine additional variables as possible factors associated with the speed of metropolitan growth.

  11. Simulating Population Growth and Regulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, Paul J.; Holt, Elvis J.

    1973-01-01

    Describes a simple manual simulation exercise used in a college sophomore course in environmental biology. Demonstrates ways in which biotic potential and other physiological and behavioral characteristics of living organisms may interact with environmental factors to produce the kind of population behavior actually observed in the real world. (JR)

  12. Population growth and development planning in Africa.

    PubMed

    1980-12-01

    Some of the consequences of rapid population growth and their implications for the economic development of the Africa region in the 1980s are outlined. The total population of Africa was estimated to be 412 million in 1976, or 10.2% of the total world population of 4044 million. Population density of the region is comparatively low, but the crude density measure of 14 persons per square kilometer in 1977 obscures the very high percentage of Africa's land which is desert or otherwise not arable. Continued high fertility rates in the region coupled with substantial decline in mortality rates especially for infants and children has resulted in Africa having a youthful population. The growth of cities due primarily to rural-urban migration is 1 of the most pressing problems of the region. Some countries in the region maintain pronatalist policies because they have a small population and regard population growth as a stimulus to the socioeconomic development effort. Few countries such as Kenya, Mauritius, Egypt, and Morocco consider rapid population growth a constraint on their development efforts and are now implementing national policies which aim at reducing the rate of growth of their populations. Population problems in Africa arise mainly from the fact that additions to the population needing education, housing, employment and to be fed adequately are increasing at a rate far more than most African countries can cope with. To illustrate the potential impact of population factors on development, the potential relationships between population and health, education, food supply, labor force supply and employment are analyzed.

  13. Determinants of Police Strength in Large U.S. Cities during the 1990s: A Fixed-Effects Panel Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCarty, William P.; Ren, Ling; Zhao, Jihong

    2012-01-01

    The 1990s represented a unique decade in which to analyze the determinants of police strength in the United States. This decade was a time in which crime initially increased, then substantially decreased. Furthermore, this decade also was characterized by increases in the minority population throughout large American cities. Finally, the 1990s…

  14. Population growth and development: the Kenyan experience.

    PubMed

    Nyamwange, M

    1995-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Kenya and high fertility impacts negatively on economic development. The growth and high fertility results in declines in gross national product, per capita food consumption, and land quality; a high dependency ratio; urban crowding; and inadequate health systems. East Africa has the highest crude birth rates in Africa, and Kenya has the highest birth rate of 54/1000 population in East Africa. The African crude death rate is 50% higher than the world average, but Kenya's death rate is the lowest in East Africa and comparable to North American and European death rates. Kenya has the highest rate of natural increase of about 4%. Population growth rates rose over the decades. Kenya's average population density is well above the sub-Saharan African average and much lower than very high density countries. Population is unequally distributed. Regional densities are widely divergent, and the highest densities in Western province are well above densities in Rwanda and Burundi. Urban growth has increased, as has migration to urban areas. Nairobi has 57% of urban population. Improved health and nutrition have contributed to increased life expectancy. The desired family size is large. The impact of demographic factors on economic conditions is evident in the decline in gross national product per capita growth to under 1% during 1972-88. A slight upswing occurred during 1988-93, but other crises are emerging. Food production has not kept pace with population growth. Production has been low due to serious land degradation, short fallow periods, and traditional farming practices. Population pressure has forced families to shift agriculture onto marginal lands, and desertification has increased. A growing proportion of the population is unemployed or underemployed. Population programs should address the underlying conditions for fertility decline.

  15. Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Adair

    2009-01-01

    Rapid population growth continues in the least developed countries. The revisionist case that rapid population could be overcome by technology, that population density was advantageous, that capital shallowing is not a vital concern and that empirical investigations had not proved a correlation between high population growth and low per capita income was both empirically and theoretically flawed. In the modern world, population density does not play the role it did in nineteenth-century Europe and rates of growth in some of today's least developed nations are four times than those in nineteenth-century Europe, and without major accumulation of capital per capita, no major economy has or is likely to make the low- to middle-income transition. Though not sufficient, capital accumulation for growth is absolutely essential to economic growth. While there are good reasons for objecting to the enforced nature of the Chinese one-child policy, we should not underestimate the positive impact which that policy has almost certainly had and will have over the next several decades on Chinese economic performance. And a valid reticence about telling developing countries that they must contain fertility should not lead us to underestimate the severely adverse impact of high fertility rates on the economic performance and prospects of many countries in Africa and the Middle East. PMID:19770149

  16. Nepal's rapid population growth still a concern.

    PubMed

    1994-05-01

    The Nepal representative of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) noted at the 194 ESCAP Commission meeting in Beijing that rapid population growth was still a problem: 2.1% per year. The annual average income growth rate was only 3.5% and poverty was widespread. The combination of poverty and rapid population growth were contributing to environmental damage. Sustainable solutions were needed for dealing with all three aforementioned issues. A high priority was already attached to population control programs, because population growth was linked to raising the standard of living and solving environmental problems. Women need to be placed in prominent positions in development efforts and given equality with men. Nepal representatives did attend the preparatory meeting on April 22, 1994, to the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) to be held in Cairo in September. The Preparatory Committee will be developing a report for the Conference. Solutions to population issues were seen as instrumental to achieving poverty alleviation and high economic growth.

  17. Population growth and environmental degradation in Malawi.

    PubMed

    Kalipeni, E

    1992-01-01

    Malawi has been ranked by the World Bank as one of the poorest countries in Africa. Malawi's only resources are its people and fertile soil, which comprises about 55% of land area. Environmental degradation and population growth conditions in Malawi were used to illustrate the model of environmental degradation linked to population pressure on land resources and government development strategies that favored large-scale agricultural farms. The result has been deforestation, overgrazing, overuse of land for subsistence, and increased population density. The argument was that population growth in some developing countries has been so rapid that environmental collapse is the result. The theoretical framework linking population growth, environment, and resources emphasized processes: 1) the precursor stage of underlying causes; 2) the problem phase with potential ecological and economic decline; and 3) consequences (environmental decline, reduction in food production systems, and reduction in standard of living). The precursors were identified as an agrarian society, lack of a population policy, and emphasis on large families. The problems were rapid population growth and immigration from Mozambique, which led to increased demand for trees for fuel and consequent deforestation, increased demand for arable land and consequent landlessness, increased investment in livestock and consequent overgrazing, and continued population momentum which was a financial burden to government and resulted in increased labor competition. The ecological consequences were soil erosion, degradation of vegetation, and water supply contamination and decline. Eventually, famines will occur and lead to disease, migration, deserted villages, urbanization, unemployment, ethnic conflicts, and political unrest. Population was estimated at 8.75 million in 1990, with exponential growth expected. Completed family size was 6.6 children per woman. Even replacement fertility would mean growth for 50 more

  18. Population growth and environmental degradation in Malawi.

    PubMed

    Kalipeni, E

    1992-01-01

    Malawi has been ranked by the World Bank as one of the poorest countries in Africa. Malawi's only resources are its people and fertile soil, which comprises about 55% of land area. Environmental degradation and population growth conditions in Malawi were used to illustrate the model of environmental degradation linked to population pressure on land resources and government development strategies that favored large-scale agricultural farms. The result has been deforestation, overgrazing, overuse of land for subsistence, and increased population density. The argument was that population growth in some developing countries has been so rapid that environmental collapse is the result. The theoretical framework linking population growth, environment, and resources emphasized processes: 1) the precursor stage of underlying causes; 2) the problem phase with potential ecological and economic decline; and 3) consequences (environmental decline, reduction in food production systems, and reduction in standard of living). The precursors were identified as an agrarian society, lack of a population policy, and emphasis on large families. The problems were rapid population growth and immigration from Mozambique, which led to increased demand for trees for fuel and consequent deforestation, increased demand for arable land and consequent landlessness, increased investment in livestock and consequent overgrazing, and continued population momentum which was a financial burden to government and resulted in increased labor competition. The ecological consequences were soil erosion, degradation of vegetation, and water supply contamination and decline. Eventually, famines will occur and lead to disease, migration, deserted villages, urbanization, unemployment, ethnic conflicts, and political unrest. Population was estimated at 8.75 million in 1990, with exponential growth expected. Completed family size was 6.6 children per woman. Even replacement fertility would mean growth for 50 more

  19. Physics through the 1990s: Condensed-matter physics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The volume presents the current status of condensed-matter physics from developments since the 1970s to opportunities in the 1990s. Topics include electronic structure, vibrational properties, critical phenomena and phase transitions, magnetism, semiconductors, defects and diffusion, surfaces and interfaces, low-temperature physics, liquid-state physics, polymers, nonlinear dynamics, instabilities, and chaos. Appendices cover the connections between condensed-matter physics and applications of national interest, new experimental techniques and materials, laser spectroscopy, and national facilities for condensed-matter physics research. The needs of the research community regarding support for individual researchers and for national facilities are presented, as are recommendations for improved government-academic-industrial relations.

  20. Helioseismology in the 1980s and 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goode, Philip R.

    2014-02-01

    Over more than twenty years, Wojtek Dziembowski and I collaborated on nearly fifty papers, which were concentrated in helioseismology through the 1980s and 1990s, but extended early into the new century. In this review, I discuss the most significant results of this collaboration and some of the underlying sociology that contributed to the intensity and longevity of our collaboration. Our work began with placing limits on the Sun's buried magnetic field and ended with extracting from the solar-cycle dependent oscillation frequency changes the roles (and net result) of competing dynamical drivers of changes in the solar diameter.

  1. Mission Control Center enhancement opportunities in the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartman, Wayne

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for understanding the major enhancement opportunities for Air Force Mission Control Center/Test Support Centers (MCC's/TSC's) in the 1990's. Much of this paper is based on the findings of Study 232 and work currently underway in Study 2-6 for the Air Force Systems Command, Space System Division, Network Program Office. In this paper, we will address MCC/TSC enhancement needs primarily from the operator perspective, in terms of the increased capabilities required to improve space operations task performance.

  2. Vietnam's campaign to reduce population growth.

    PubMed

    Haub, C

    1999-10-01

    This paper reports campaigns to reduce the population growth in Vietnam. In July, red banners flew above the broad boulevard in Hanoi proclaiming World Population Day. This widespread public attention to population issues is not surprising, given the country's sharp reduction in fertility and widespread citizen support for smaller families. Since 1961, Vietnam has been trying to formulate a policy to reduce the population rate growth. The policy was a reaction to the results of the 1960 Census of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam and reflected long-standing concerns over food shortages, as well as a desire to improve women's health and welfare. After the reunification in 1975, the policy was extended to the entire country. Since then, Vietnam's growth rate has been declining, suggesting that the national campaign for smaller families is succeeding in changing deeply held attitudes and perceptions, in addition to current practices. While the fertility decline in Vietnam may not be the world's fastest, the success of the national population policy has forever altered the country's prospect for population growth.

  3. A one dimensional model of population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano L.; Ribeiro, Kayo N.

    2015-09-01

    In this work, a one dimensional population growth model is proposed. The model, based on the cooperative and competitive individual-individual distance-dependent interaction, allows us to get a full analytical solution. With this analytical approach, it was possible to investigate the dynamics of the population according to some parameters, as intrinsic growth rate, strength of the interaction between individuals, and the distance-dependent interaction. As a consequence of the individuals' interaction, a rich phase diagram to which the population has access was observed. The phases observed are: convergence to carrying capacity, exponential growth, divergence at finite time, and extinction. Moreover, it was also observed that some phases are strictly dependent on the initial condition. For instance, in the cooperative regime with negative intrinsic growth rate, the population can diverge or become extinct according to the initial population size. The phases accessible to the population can be seen as a macroscopic behavior which emerges from the interaction among the individuals (the microscopic level).

  4. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  5. Keynes on population and economic growth.

    PubMed

    Toye, J

    1997-01-01

    This article discusses the evolution of Keynes's thinking on population based on an unpublished paper from 1914, "Is the Problem of Population a Pressing and Important One Now?" The paper is reported to have 39 pages, but in fact there are many missing page numbers. Keynes's "Essays in Biography" (1933) follows the basic structure and much of the verbal detail of the first 16 pages of "Population." Chapter 2 of the "Economic Consequences of the Peace" discusses the key ideas of "Population." The passages in "Population" and Chapter 2 were probably the sources of a fierce controversy in 1923-24 between Keynes and W.H. Beveridge over Keynes' neo-Malthusianism. "Population" was the basis for the three themes that were central to Keynes's writing on population. Keynes's framework shifted from a global perspective in "Population" to a progressively narrower focus in the 1930s on England and Wales. Keynes was stronger in his advocacy of birth control in "Population" compared to later writings. Keynes was concerned about the quality of population but disagreed on the methods of achieving this. Keynes argued that 75% of the world was not subject to Malthusian dynamics, and the other 25% had developed technology to relieve population pressure. "Population" sketches out the rudiments of the welfare implications of the great divide between North and South population growth rates. Keynes assumes that overpopulation in the South will be compensated for by the international market without consideration of income deficits. Keynes argues against pronatalism. The 1933 essay shows Keynes shift away from Malthus as population expert to Malthus as political economist. By 1937, Keynes had recanted and was very aware of the uncertainty of the economy. The author believes that it is unfortunate that this 1913-14 manuscript remains unknown and, if known, misunderstood.

  6. Tsetse: the limits to population growth.

    PubMed

    Hargrove, J W

    1988-07-01

    Growth rates of tsetse populations were estimated by calculating the dominant eigenvalues of appropriate Leslie matrices. The individual effects of four variables (pre-adult and adult survival probability, interlarval period and pupal duration), have been investigated by varying each one over a wide range of values, while the other three are held constant. R, the log of the growth rate, was found to vary approximately linearly with adult and pre-adult death rate; a 1% change in the adult death rate causes approximately a 10-fold change in R. R varies linearly with the log of fecundity and of the pupal duration. An increase in the pupal duration results in a decrease in the growth rate for populations which have a positive growth rate, but an increase for populations which have a negative growth rate. For a population at equilibrium, a change in the pupal duration has no effect. Small changes in fecundity have less effect on the growth rate than small changes in the death rate; this fact is advanced as an important contributor to the generally very cautious nature of female tsetse, and their aversion to man, particularly as a potential host. A simple linear model is described which relates R to all four variables and their first order interactions. The model is used to produce a set of graphs which encapsulate the relationship between the growth rate and the vital parameters over a wide range of values. It is also used to draw the loci on one side of which tsetse populations grow, and on the other of which they decline. Population resilience is discussed in relation to the problem of tsetse eradication; it is concluded that if one can impose and sustain an added mortality of 4% per day on any female tsetse population then it must go extinct, regardless of the strength of the density dependent processes; and it seems likely that in most field conditions only an added 2-3% is required. It is pointed out that ground and aerial spraying techniques produce much higher

  7. A Revisionist Look at Population and Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holden, Constance

    1986-01-01

    Presents highlights from a National Research Council report titled "Population Growth and Economic Questions: Policy Questions." Includes brief comments on the report's conclusions related to exhaustible resources, renewable resources, pollution, work productivity, economics of scale and technological innovation, schooling, income distribution,…

  8. ACTS Multibeam Communications Package - Technology for the 1990S

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graebner, John C.; Cashman, William F.

    1990-01-01

    To maintain its competitive position in the 1990s, satellite communications must evolve to provide new services and to reduce the costs of supplying existing services. NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) program is directed toward developing the technology base that will support this evolution. The ACTS communications payload is optimized for digital communications using a time-division multiple access format. Scanning spot-beam antennas provide high-performance on-demand service to the earth communication stations. On-board processing and switching allow full connectivity in a single-hop network architecture. ACTS employs Ka-band (30/20 GHz) links for communications traffic and includes techniques for mitigating rain fades. Scheduled to be launched by a Space Shuttle in 1992, ACTS will provide in-orbit technology verification and support experimental communications networks for up to four years.

  9. European Telecommunications Conference. Strategic Planning for the 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackburn, J. F.

    1990-06-01

    The European Telecommunications Conference Strategic Planning for the 1990s provided information to delegates and their companies on strategic planning for the European market, particularly after the advent of the European Single Market at the end of 1992. The conference objective was to examine the impact of the initiatives of the European Commission (EC) and the changing attitudes to service provision by public and private sector organizations on industry and marketing. Organized by Blenheim Online and Logica, 40 delegates attended this conference, mainly from Europe, but with a few from the U.S. The papers were designed to illuminate such questions as emerging market sectors, impact of U.S telecommunications organizations in Europe, mergers and acquisition, standards, and value-added services.

  10. Optical surveillance equipment for the late 1990's

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, C.S.

    1990-01-01

    Techniques for optical surveillance and storage in the last two decades have been mainly centered first around film cameras and then around video cameras and time lapse video tape recorders. There is every indication that these technologies will have vanished by the end of the 1990's. The evolution of video technology is taking place at a staggering pace driven by the new solid state devices being produced by the semiconductor industry. While the safeguards industry may be quite satisfied with the performance of the present image hardware available to them, the obsolescence of today's technology will occur rapidly. This paper will look at the development trends in today's technology and see what they indicate for image surveillance developments in next few years. 3 figs.

  11. Future proton and electron colliders: Dreams for the 1990's

    SciTech Connect

    Richter, B.

    1988-10-01

    In this paper I have reviewed the possibilities for new colliders that might be available in the 1990's. One or more new proton should be available in the late-90s based on plans of Europe, the US and the USSR. The two very high energy machines, LHC and SSC, are quite expensive, and their construction will be more decided by the politicians' view on the availability of resources than by the physicists' view of the need for new machines. Certainly something will be built, but the question is when. New electron colliders beyond LEP II could be available in the late 1990's as well. Most of the people who have looked at this problem believe that at a minimum three years of RandD are required before a proposal can be made, two years will be required to convince the authorities to go ahead, and five years will be required to build such a machine. Thus the earliest time a new electron collider at high energy could be available is around 1988. A strong international RandD program will be required to meet that schedule. In the field of B factories, PSI's proposal is the first serious step beyond the capabilities of CESR. There are other promising techniques but these need more RandD. The least RandD would be required for the asymmetric storage ring systems, while the most would be required for high luminosity linear colliders. For the next decade, high energy physics will be doing its work at the high energy frontier with Tevatron I and II, UNK, SLC, LEP I and II, and HERA. The opportunities for science presented by experiments at these facilities are very great, and it is to be hoped that the pressure for funding to construct the next generation facilities will not badly affect the operating budgets of the ones we now have or which will soon be turning on. 9 refs., 12 figs., 6 tabs.

  12. Oil and gas markets, companies, and technology in the 1990`s and beyond

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, J.L.

    1995-08-01

    During the late 1990`s and beyond, oil prices will be stagnant while costs increase, competition for markets and capital will be fierce, funds available for exploration and development will be limited, and environmental extremists will keep prospective areas off-limits. Higher taxes will limit growth in oil and gas demand and reapportion energy market shares. And a campaign to brand oil use as an ``addiction`` that must be cured will gather steam. But opportunities abound, too, even in the US High-quality properties are available throughout the US, independents can find and develop reserves cheaper than the majors, and new tools are available to reduce risks both in the field and in the market. Gas prices are firming and natural gas is often labeled the ``fuel of the future.`` To succeed in the petroleum industry of the 1990`s, all companies must accept change, be creative, and take initiative. To prosper, oil and gas producers and refiners and those who supply and serve the industry must face the new realities of the market. They cannot mark time until the return of 4,000 active rigs and $40/bbl oil. those days are never coming back. Never.

  13. Welfare and poverty in the Europe of the 1990s: social progress or social dumping?

    PubMed

    Abrahamson, P E

    1991-01-01

    Social policy in Europe is changing fundamentally from a system of public (government) support to a welfare pluralism, or a "welfare mix" supported by the private and public sectors and by voluntary agencies. The overall tendencies are privatization, decentralization, and debureaucratization. With the prospect of a single-market economy within the European Communities in 1993, the fight against poverty in member nations may lead to "social dumping." Two major problems are identified: the lack of guaranteed minimum income schemes in the so-called "Latin Rim" countries, and the effect on workers' and citizens' rights in an integrated Europe. The fight against poverty is--despite some efforts from the Commission of the European Communities--basically left to the individual member states. This portends a gloomy scenario for the poorer populations of Europe in the 1990s. The author examines welfare state types within clusters of countries: the modern (Scandinavia), the corporatist (Federal Republic of Germany), the residual (Britain), and the rudimentary (Latin Rim). The conclusion, unfortunately, is that future overall development of European welfare systems in the 1990s will probably be toward "Americanization," with a move away from the modern, or Scandinavian, model toward a corporatist model for welfare policy.

  14. Welfare and poverty in the Europe of the 1990s: social progress or social dumping?

    PubMed

    Abrahamson, P E

    1991-01-01

    Social policy in Europe is changing fundamentally from a system of public (government) support to a welfare pluralism, or a "welfare mix" supported by the private and public sectors and by voluntary agencies. The overall tendencies are privatization, decentralization, and debureaucratization. With the prospect of a single-market economy within the European Communities in 1993, the fight against poverty in member nations may lead to "social dumping." Two major problems are identified: the lack of guaranteed minimum income schemes in the so-called "Latin Rim" countries, and the effect on workers' and citizens' rights in an integrated Europe. The fight against poverty is--despite some efforts from the Commission of the European Communities--basically left to the individual member states. This portends a gloomy scenario for the poorer populations of Europe in the 1990s. The author examines welfare state types within clusters of countries: the modern (Scandinavia), the corporatist (Federal Republic of Germany), the residual (Britain), and the rudimentary (Latin Rim). The conclusion, unfortunately, is that future overall development of European welfare systems in the 1990s will probably be toward "Americanization," with a move away from the modern, or Scandinavian, model toward a corporatist model for welfare policy. PMID:2071305

  15. The impact of population change on the growth of mega-cities.

    PubMed

    Guest, P

    1994-03-01

    The population dynamics of population growth in mega-cities and the contributions of migration to urban growth are described. The policy implications are identified as the need for a continued emphasis on fertility declines, because reductions will have a beneficial effect on reducing the pace of growth of mega-cities. The short-term goal of policy should be to provide urban contraceptive services to female migrants, who should be targeted specifically as a special group. Natural increase will be the main source of growth of mega-cities, and women who migrated during the 1990s will be a part of that natural increase. Reductions in population growth will make it easier for governments to provide services and to manage the large population size in mega-cities, which will continue to exist as long as economic activities are centralized and economic development promotes urbanization and spatial concentration. The emergence of mega-cities with populations of many millions has been a recent and increasing phenomena. The largest cities in 1980 were Tokyo with 16.9 million followed by New York City with 15.6 million. By 1990, the largest mega-cities were Mexico City with 20.2 million, Tokyo with 18.1 million, Sao Paulo with 17.4 million, and New York with 16.2 million. By the year 2000, the expectation is that Mexico City will have 25.6 million, Sao Paulo 22.1 million, Tokyo 19.0 million, Shanghai 17.0 million, and New York 16.8 million. The rankings will change, but the pattern clearly reflects the growth of mega-cities in developing countries. The age structure of urban populations is conducive to population growth. The main component of urban growth in Asia has been migration. Age structure changes have affected migration and will continue to affect fertility in mega-cities. Mega-cities will attract a young population because of the tourist and personnel services sectors which employ large numbers of young people, because of the demand for educated workers who tend to

  16. [Models of economic theory of population growth].

    PubMed

    Von Zameck, W

    1987-01-01

    "The economic theory of population growth applies the opportunity cost approach to the fertility decision. Variations and differentials in fertility are caused by the available resources and relative prices or by the relative production costs of child services. Pure changes in real income raise the demand for children or the total amount spent on children. If relative prices or production costs and real income are affected together the effect on fertility requires separate consideration." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  17. [World population growth and the food supply].

    PubMed

    Huang, Y

    1982-07-29

    The general trend in the last several hundred years has been that the speed of growth in the food supply exceeds the speed of the population growth. For the time being, 2 major problems still exist. The 1st problem is that food production is still influenced by natural conditions. For example, abnormal weather conditions may cause regional food shortages. The 2nd problem is the imbalance of food consumption by the world population. This phenomenon exists between different social classes as well as between developed and developing countries. According to statistics released by the World Bank, 1 billion suffer from malnutrition today and most of them are in developing countries. In developed countries, about half of their increase in the food supply is for feed grains, and those countries follow the policy of reducing farm land for the purpose of maintaing stabl e grain prices. Up to the present time, grain prices have been unstable, and this has become a rather heavy economic burden for numerous developing countries. Many developing countries are trying to increase grain production by increasing their arable land and promoting their cultivating techniques. However, these countries are facing the problems of finding and adequate water supply, fertilizer, and pesticides. In addition, a rapid population growth in these countries has offset their endeavors in agriculture. In recent years, these counties have realized the necessity of birth control. The world population growth rate has decreased from 2% to about 1.7% in 1981. Birth control and an increase in the food supply will bring new hope to the world's problems of overpopulation and food supply.

  18. Computerized structural mechanics for 1990's: Advanced aircraft needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Viswanathan, A. V.; Backman, B. F.

    1989-01-01

    The needs for computerized structural mechanics (CSM) as seen from the standpoint of the aircraft industry are discussed. These needs are projected into the 1990's with special focus on the new advanced materials. Preliminary design/analysis, research, and detail design/analysis are identified as major areas. The role of local/global analyses in these different areas is discussed. The lessons learned in the past are used as a basis for the design of a CSM framework that could modify and consolidate existing technology and include future developments in a rational and useful way. A philosophy is stated, and a set of analyses needs driven by the emerging advanced composites is enumerated. The roles of NASA, the universities, and the industry are identified. Finally, a set of rational research targets is recommended based on both the new types of computers and the increased complexity the industry faces. Computerized structural mechanics should be more than new methods in structural mechanics and numerical analyses. It should be a set of engineering applications software products that combines innovations in structural mechanics, numerical analysis, data processing, search and display features, and recent hardware advances and is organized in a framework that directly supports the design process.

  19. Cardiac Exposures in Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: 1950s-1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Carolyn W. Nisbet, Andrew; McGale, Paul; Darby, Sarah C.

    2007-12-01

    Purpose: To estimate the doses to the heart and coronary arteries from common breast cancer radiotherapy (RT) regimens used worldwide from the 1950s to the 1990s. Methods and Materials: Virtual simulation and computed tomography planning were used to reconstruct the megavoltage and electron regimens. Manual planning was used for the orthovoltage and brachytherapy regimens. Several sources of variability associated with the dose estimates were assessed. Results: Breast or chest wall RT resulted in whole heart doses of 0.9-14 Gy for left-sided and of 0.4-6 Gy for right-sided irradiation. Internal mammary chain RT delivered heart doses of 3-17 Gy and 2-10 Gy for left- and right-sided irradiation, respectively. For most regimens, the dose to the left anterior descending coronary artery was greater than the heart dose. Scar boost, supraclavicular fossa, and axillary RT delivered mean cardiac doses of {<=}3 Gy. The greatest source of variability in estimating dose from a given regimen was patient anatomy. Conclusion: For most techniques, the greatest radiation doses were received by the anterior part of the heart and the left anterior descending coronary artery, a common site of atherosclerosis causing myocardial infarction. Irradiation of these structures might have contributed to the excess risk of death from heart disease seen after some past breast cancer RT regimens.

  20. Childbirth education in the 1990s and beyond.

    PubMed

    Zwelling, E

    1996-06-01

    Childbirth education has been evolving for centuries. It has been a part of the experience of pregnancy and birth since the beginning of time, although it did not exist in the formal structure that exists today. It began in response to a need to improve prenatal care and maternal-infant outcomes. It experienced an awakening fueled by the women's movement and the grass roots consumer movement between 1960 and 1980 and had an impact on the development of family-centered maternity care. It has been influenced by institutional control in the 1980s and 1990s. Throughout these decades the goals of childbirth education have changed and evolved. As we near the year 2000, childbirth education approaches a crossroads and faces many challenges for the future. A number of factors will influence the direction that childbirth education takes in the next century. These factors include demographic trends, health care reform, the philosophy of health care providers, goals and responsibilities of consumers, goals of educational programs, consumer access to education programs, the philosophy and role of childbirth educators, research, and standards of practice. PMID:8791230

  1. The "Cuban Epidemic Neuropathy" of the 1990s: A glimpse from inside a totalitarian disease.

    PubMed

    Coutin-Churchman, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    During the 1990s, Cuba was struck by a rare epidemic disease. Up to 50,000 people were affected by a pathology compromising primarily the optic nerve but also peripheral nerves and even spinal cord. This is a testimony from a direct witness and participant in the initial study of the epidemics showing that in spite of claims of a "multifactorial" etiology, still in the literature, the root cause of this disease is just result of the deliberate deprivation of the most elementary economic rights by extreme Government control over a population left unable to tend to its elementary survival by itself, in spite of a thorough Government-sponsored, universally celebrated Universal Healthcare System. PMID:25024884

  2. The impact of mood stabilizers on bipolar disorder: the 1890s and 1990s compared.

    PubMed

    Harris, Margaret; Chandran, Summit; Chakraborty, Nabonita; Healy, David

    2005-12-01

    This study comparing patterns of service utilization by bipolar patients in North-West Wales found a greater prevalence of service utilization in the 1990s compared with the 1890s. In the pre-lithium era, admissions for bipolar disorders occurred at a rate of 4 every 10 years; they now occur at a rate of 6.3 every 10 years. Where 100 years ago, there were 16 bipolar patients per million population resident per day in hospital, there are now 24 per million resident in acute service beds and more in non-acute beds. These data are incompatible with simple claims that mood stabilizing drugs 'work'. An alternative is that these agents have treatment effects, and further research is needed to match treatments to patients in order to optimize outcomes.

  3. Renewed population growth in rural America.

    PubMed

    Johnson, K M

    1998-01-01

    This chapter documents the fact that "nonmetropolitan America has experienced widespread population gain and net in-migration since 1990. This contrasts with the trend evident through most of this century.... However, this deconcentration has been selective and tempered by economic period effects. Future nonmetropolitan demographic change is likely to be even more dependent on migration because recent rural fertility patterns, together with age structure shifts, have diminished the contribution natural increase can make to rural growth. This increasing dependence on migration, coupled with the greater integration of nonmetropolitan areas into the national and international system, makes rural America increasingly sensitive to national and global economic, political, and social forces."

  4. Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes.

    PubMed

    Woodgate, G; Sage, C

    1994-01-01

    The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot. PMID:12290867

  5. World Population: Fundamentals of Growth. Student Chartbook. Third Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kent, Mary Mederios

    This booklet is designed for K-12 students and educators to learn about world population growth factors. Data are shown through charts and graphs with brief explanations. The booklet contains: (1) "World Population Growth and Regional Distribution through History"; (2) "Population Growth through Natural Increase"; (3) "Effect of Migration on…

  6. Inter-state variations in population growth.

    PubMed

    Rao, V K

    1983-01-26

    In formulating India's population policy it is necessary to consider the interstate disparities in birth and death rates as well as rural-urban variations. The states whose total growth over the 1921-81 period exceeded the corresponding all-India rate of 172% were Assam (329), Gujarat (234), Rajasthan (231), Kerala (226), West Bengal (212), Maharashtra (204), Haryana (202), Andhra (196), and Karnataka (177). Madhya Pradesh had the same growth rate as all India. The remaining states had a growth rate less than 172%, i.e., Bihar (148), Jammu and Kashmir (147), Uttar Pradesh (138), Orissa (135), Punjab (133), Tamil Nadu (123), and Himachal Pradesh (120). The states in need of special attention from the point of view of population control policy are Assam, Gujarat, and Rajasthan which have been consistently above the all-India decadal growth rate during all 6 decades of 1921-81; Madhya Pradesh and Haryana, which have been consistently above the all-India rate during the last 3 decades; and Uttar Pradesh, which has suddenly reversed its continuous record of 5 decades of being below the all-India growth rate and now shows a higher growth rate during 1971-81. According to the latest sample registration bulletin of December 1980, the combined crude birthrate for India declined from 36.8/1000 in 1970 to 33.0/1000 in 1979 or by 3.8%. The 1st step to reduce the rate of growth of the population is to bring down the combined crude birthrate which now varies from 40.1/1000 in Uttar Pradesh to 25.6 in Kerala. Even Kerala's birthrate cannot be considered satisfactory by either desirable or comparative demographic standards. In the remaining years of the 20th century the birthrate should be brought down to the target of 17.18/1000. Similarly the difference between the rural and urban crude birthrate, which now ranges between 10.6/1000 to 1.2/1000 and averages 6.6 at the national level should be brought down to the 1.2 level of Kerala. Similarly, the combined crude death rate/1000

  7. Human population growth and the demographic transition

    PubMed Central

    Bongaarts, John

    2009-01-01

    The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women's fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation. PMID:19770150

  8. Fitness and density-dependent population growth in Drosophila melanogaster

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-03-01

    The density-dependent rates of population growth were determined for 26 populations of Drosophila melanogaster maintained in the serial transfer system. Twenty-five populations were homozygous for an entire chromosome 2 sampled from nature; the other was a random heterozygous population. Rates of population growth around the carrying capacity cannot explain the large fitness depression of these lines. However, the homozygous lines show large differences in rates of population growth at low densities relative to the random heterozygous standard. The average relative fitness of the homozygous lines, as determined from the growth rates at the lowest density, is 0.51.

  9. Beijing moves to curb population growth.

    PubMed

    Pao, T K

    Education and incentives are being used to encourage a "one-child for one-family" campaign in Beijing. The goal is to reduce its population growth rate to 5%/1000 by 1985. Parents who have only child will receive a certificate entitling the only child to preferential treatment for nursery or kindergarten and medical care. 1-child families will receive an annual bonus of 60 yuan. Those who have more than 2 children will be taxed a minimum of 10% of salaries. Single, childless people will receive their full salaries as pensions on retirement. All urban families will receive the same housing space no matter what size the family. The same will be true for the size of small plots of land parcelled out for private use in the rural suburban area. Sterilization operations are available for those who wish them. Parents with 1 child who have such operations can have their tubes rejoined free of charge if their child is disabled or dies. The average growth rate for China projected for 1978-1000 is 1.2%.

  10. Population growth rate and its determinants: an overview.

    PubMed Central

    Sibly, Richard M; Hone, Jim

    2002-01-01

    We argue that population growth rate is the key unifying variable linking the various facets of population ecology. The importance of population growth rate lies partly in its central role in forecasting future population trends; indeed if the form of density dependence were constant and known, then the future population dynamics could to some degree be predicted. We argue that population growth rate is also central to our understanding of environmental stress: environmental stressors should be defined as factors which when first applied to a population reduce population growth rate. The joint action of such stressors determines an organism's ecological niche, which should be defined as the set of environmental conditions where population growth rate is greater than zero (where population growth rate = r = log(e)(N(t+1)/N(t))). While environmental stressors have negative effects on population growth rate, the same is true of population density, the case of negative linear effects corresponding to the well-known logistic equation. Following Sinclair, we recognize population regulation as occurring when population growth rate is negatively density dependent. Surprisingly, given its fundamental importance in population ecology, only 25 studies were discovered in the literature in which population growth rate has been plotted against population density. In 12 of these the effects of density were linear; in all but two of the remainder the relationship was concave viewed from above. Alternative approaches to establishing the determinants of population growth rate are reviewed, paying special attention to the demographic and mechanistic approaches. The effects of population density on population growth rate may act through their effects on food availability and associated effects on somatic growth, fecundity and survival, according to a 'numerical response', the evidence for which is briefly reviewed. Alternatively, there may be effects on population growth rate of

  11. Years of Challenge: The Impact of Demographic and Work Force Trends on Higher Education in the 1990s. A NACUBO Monograph.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hughes, K. Scott; And Others

    This report describes national demographic and work force trends that have important implications for institutions and presents recommended management strategies for the 1990s. Among the trends predicted for the next 10 years are the following: (1) a continuing reduction in the traditional 18-24 year-old college-going population; (2) the…

  12. Colonization, population growth, and nesting success of Black Oystercatchers following a seismic uplift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gill, V.A.; Hatch, Shyla A.; Lanctot, Richard B.

    2004-01-01

    We present data on the colonization of Middleton Island, Alaska, by Black Oystercatchers (Haematopus bachmani) following the creation of an extensive rocky intertidal zone after the Alaskan earthquake of 1964. The first pair of oystercatchers was detected in 1976, and it was another 5 years before the population increased to three pairs. Oystercatcher numbers increased steadily thereafter, with a population explosion occurring in the 1990s. By 2002, there were 171 territorial pairs on the island. The total number of birds increased from two in 1976 to 718 in 2002. Breeding-pair densities on Middleton Island are the highest recorded for any portion of Alaska, averaging more than 5 pairs per km of shoreline in 2002. Nesting success in 2001 and 2002 was greater (83% or more of the eggs laid hatched) than that reported for any other population of oystercatchers in Alaska or along the Pacific Coast. We attribute this exponential growth rate and exceptionally high reproductive success to the large area of available and suitable habitat, the low number of avian predators and the complete lack of mammalian predators, low rate of nest loss to high tides and storm surges, and a low level of human disturbance. We propose nominating Middleton Island as a regional Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network site because a high percentage of the world's and region's population of Black Oystercatchers resides there during the breeding season. Further, since Middleton Island may be the single most important site in Alaska for Black Oystercatchers, we suggest it be protected from future development.

  13. Forces Shaping the Electronic Publishing Industry of the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hawkins, Donald T.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Reviews the conventional publishing industry, and discusses a study of the electronic publishing industry and its products and processes. Discusses seven major forces affecting it--technology, economics, demographics, social trends, government policies, applications growth, and industry trends--and outlines principles to follow for success in…

  14. Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norton, Arthur J.; Miller, Louisa F.

    This paper presents results of a survey of the marriage and fertility histories of women in the United States conducted in June 1990 by the Bureau of the Census as a supplement to the Current Population Survey. The marriage and fertility history surveys were taken in 1971, 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. This paper focuses on recent trends in…

  15. Older Adults: Community College Students of the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craig, Ford M.

    With a declining pool of youth to draw from, community colleges need to be concerned about what can be done to serve the needs of a burgeoning older adult population. Recent research on the educational needs of older adults reveals that they are interested in: (1) information on such personal business and financial topics as social security…

  16. Rural Earnings Edge Up in the 1990's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gibbs, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Current Population Survey data indicate that nonmetropolitan earnings rose slightly during 1990-96, metropolitan income declined, and nonmetro income inequality lessened. Nonmetro gains were notable in the South and Midwest and for women, Blacks, and Hispanics. Earnings declined sharply for urban, but not rural, high school dropouts. The urban…

  17. Nonmetro Personal Income Increases in the 1990's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angle, Jack

    1997-01-01

    Current Population Survey data indicate that nonmetropolitan personal income increased in real terms during 1990-96, whereas metropolitan income did not. Among long-term influences, steadily rising educational attainment has fostered convergence between nonmetro and metro income. Table and figure detail nonmetro and metro incomes, 1990-96, for…

  18. Redistricting in the 1990s: A Guide for Minority Groups.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Hare, William P., Ed.

    This guide provides basic information for members of minority groups who wish to participate effectively in the reapportionment that will take place as a result of the 1990 Census. The guide focuses on Blacks and Hispanics--the largest minority groups and the only ones for which there are reliable population figures that are more recent than the…

  19. Homeless Children in America: Challenges for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rafferty, Yvonne

    The 1980s brought an unprecedented rise in the number of homeless families with children. That there may be as many as three million homeless persons in the United States, with families representing one-third of this population, indicates that homelessness is a social problem of catastrophic proportions. This paper finds that while Federal…

  20. Population Growth and a Sustainable Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortimore, Michael; Tiffen, Mary

    1994-01-01

    Provides a history of farming practices in a densely populated area of Kenya where a recent study of the resource management practices showed positive, not negative, influences of increasing population density on both environmental conservation and productivity. (LZ)

  1. Interesting times on Krakatau: stand dynamics in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Whittaker, R J; Partomihardjo, T; Jones, S H

    1999-11-29

    The Krakatau Islands, Indonesia, have provided an opportunity for ecologists to track primary succession from the 'clean slate' of 1883, through forest closure in the 1920s, to the contemporary period, in which successional changes take the form of alterations in composition and stature of forest stands rather than gross changes in ecosystem type. This paper reports on permanent forest plots established on the islands in 1989, and fully surveyed again in both 1992 and 1997. Since 1989, the plots have been subject to natural disturbance phenomena in the form of varying combinations of, for example, deposition of volcanic ejecta, landslides, lightning strikes, storm damage and drought. These effects have been concentrated between 1992 and 1997, during which the volcano Anak Krakatau has deposited ash on the islands of Sertung and Panjang, but not on Rakata. Data on stand responses are presented for growth rates (dbh (diameter at breast height, 1.3 m) increment), stem recruitment and mortality, biomass changes partitioned into mortality, ingrowth and growth of established trees), and compositional shifts. The discussion focuses on evaluation of questions and successional models framed earlier in the programme. One general finding is that the stand dominants as of 1989 have tended to decline in number within the plots, generally through low levels of recruitment failing to balance rates of mortality. The effects of disturbance to the plots appear to be evident in terms of mortality and recruitment, dbh increment, and changes in biomass. The patterns of change in the eight plots are quite varied, such that relatively few generalizations are possible. The difficulties of establishing meaningful baseline rates for tree growth and stand biomass are discussed. PMID:11605628

  2. Ultraviolet, visible, and gravity astrophysics: A plan for the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    NASA's Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) receives advice on scientific strategy and priorities from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Guidance to the OSSA Astrophysics Division, in particular, is provided by dedicated academy committees, ad hoc study groups, and, at ten-year intervals, by broadly mandated astronomy and astrophysics survey committees charged with making recommendations for the coming decade. Many of the academy's recommendations have important implications for the conduct of ultraviolet and visible-light astronomy from space. Moreover, these areas are now poised for an era of rapid growth. Through technological progress, ultraviolet astronomy has already risen from a novel observational technique four decades ago to the mainstream of astronomical research today. Recent developments in space technology and instrumentation have the potential to generate comparably dramatic strides in observational astronomy within the next ten years. In 1989, the Ultraviolet and Visible Astrophysics Branch of the OSSA Astrophysics Division recognized the need for a new, long-range plan that would implement the academy's recommendations in a way that yielded the most advantageous use of new technology. NASA's Ultraviolet, Visible, and Gravity Astrophysics Management Operations Working Group was asked to develop such a plan for the 1990's. Since the branch holds programmatic responsibility for space research in gravitational physics and relativity, as well as for ultraviolet and visible-light astrophysics, missions in those areas were also included. The working group met throughout 1989 and 1990 to survey current astrophysical problems, assess the potential of new technologies, examine prior academy recommendations, and develop the implementation plan. The present report is the product of those deliberations. Key astrophysical questions to be addressed cover topics such as the structure and evolution of the early universe, energetics of active

  3. Gay and bisexual men's use of the Internet: research from the 1990s through 2013.

    PubMed

    Grov, Christian; Breslow, Aaron S; Newcomb, Michael E; Rosenberger, Joshua G; Bauermeister, Jose A

    2014-01-01

    We document the historical and cultural shifts in how gay and bisexual men have used the Internet for sexuality between the 1990s and 2013-including shifting technology as well as research methods to study gay and bisexual men online. Gay and bisexual men have rapidly taken to using the Internet for sexual purposes: for health information seeking, finding sex partners, dating, cybersex, and pornography. Men have adapted to the ever-evolving technological advances that have been made in connecting users to the Internet-from logging on via dial-up modem on a desktop computer to geo-social-sexual networking via handheld devices. In kind, researchers have adapted to the Internet to study gay and bisexual men. Studies have carefully considered the ethics, feasibility, and acceptability of using the Internet to conduct research and interventions. Much of this work has been grounded in models of disease prevention, largely as a result of the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic. The need to reduce HIV in this population has been a driving force to develop innovative research and Internet-based intervention methodologies. The Internet, and specifically mobile technology, is an environment gay and bisexual men are using for sexual purposes. These innovative technologies represent powerful resources for researchers to study and provide outreach. PMID:24754360

  4. Forces of change in the health care system. Implications for cancer care in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Ettinger, W H

    1991-03-15

    Dramatic changes will occur in the health care system during the 1990s which will profoundly affect the delivery of care for cancer. Perhaps the most important factor is the aging of the population. As the proportion of people who achieve old age increases, the absolute prevalence and incidence of cancer will increase despite improved treatment techniques. This phenomenon will increase health care expenditures despite ongoing efforts to control costs. Second, there will be continuing efforts at cost control and increased emphasis on quality assurance and outcomes by third party payers. Providers will be scrutinized and compared with one another. The large payers of the nation's health care bills will demand proof of outcome and cost leading to bidding by providers and payment only to those who have the best outcome for the least money. Third, there will be an increasing emphasis on prevention and screening, in public health policy, an approach that may conflict with personal freedom. Fourth, there will be increasing deliberations and questions about the ethics of the health care system and treatment decisions. There will be continuing debate about the need for a rationing of health care and the right of individual privacy versus the states' right to preserve life. These changes will impact on all health care professionals whose practice includes patients with cancer. PMID:2001566

  5. Gay and bisexual men's use of the Internet: research from the 1990s through 2013.

    PubMed

    Grov, Christian; Breslow, Aaron S; Newcomb, Michael E; Rosenberger, Joshua G; Bauermeister, Jose A

    2014-01-01

    We document the historical and cultural shifts in how gay and bisexual men have used the Internet for sexuality between the 1990s and 2013-including shifting technology as well as research methods to study gay and bisexual men online. Gay and bisexual men have rapidly taken to using the Internet for sexual purposes: for health information seeking, finding sex partners, dating, cybersex, and pornography. Men have adapted to the ever-evolving technological advances that have been made in connecting users to the Internet-from logging on via dial-up modem on a desktop computer to geo-social-sexual networking via handheld devices. In kind, researchers have adapted to the Internet to study gay and bisexual men. Studies have carefully considered the ethics, feasibility, and acceptability of using the Internet to conduct research and interventions. Much of this work has been grounded in models of disease prevention, largely as a result of the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic. The need to reduce HIV in this population has been a driving force to develop innovative research and Internet-based intervention methodologies. The Internet, and specifically mobile technology, is an environment gay and bisexual men are using for sexual purposes. These innovative technologies represent powerful resources for researchers to study and provide outreach.

  6. Electric lighting for the 1990s: The major issues

    SciTech Connect

    Gough, A.

    1996-01-01

    The lighting community has grown from a simple business to a larger population with more diverse motives and needs. Here the author looks at the different facets of this industry. First is the conservation and environmental advocacy concerns, often pressed by groups adamantly committed to their objectives. The industry must keep abreast of technology, and know the facts as it moves in new directions. The user needs to have the tools available to design lighting systems which meet his and his clients needs for performance, productivity, and quality, when the system is being designed. Issues related to utility efforts through demand side management programs, governmental action through legislative and regulatory effort, and the application of new technology in new construction, and retrofitting, are discussed. The need now is to move to an integrated approach rather than a unilateral one that will reconcile the issues; this will leverage the strengths of all participants.

  7. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  8. Population growth and development: the case of Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Nakibullah, A

    1998-04-01

    In a poor, overly populated country such as Bangladesh, some believe that a high rate of population growth is a cause of poverty which impedes economic development. Population growth would therefore be exogenous to economic development. However, others believe that rapid population growth is a consequence rather than a cause of poverty. Population growth is therefore endogenous to economic development. Findings are presented from an investigation of whether population growth has been exogenous or endogenous with respect to Bangladesh's development process during the past 3 decades. The increase in per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a measure of development. Data on population, real GDP per capita, and real investment share of GDP are drawn from the Penn World Table prepared by Summers and Heston in 1991. The data are annual and cover the period 1959-90. Analysis of the data indicate that population growth is endogenous to Bangladesh's development process. These findings are reflected both in the Granger causality tests and the decompositions of variances of detrended real GDP per capita and population growth.

  9. Trends in physician supply and population growth.

    PubMed

    Makaroff, Laura A; Green, Larry A; Petterson, Stephen M; Bazemore, Andrew W

    2013-04-01

    The physician workforce has steadily grown faster than the U.S. population over the past 30 years, context that is often absent in conversations anticipating physician scarcity. Policy makers addressing future physician shortages should also direct resources to ensure specialty and geographic distribution that best serves population health .

  10. Noise-driven growth rate gain in clonal cellular populations

    PubMed Central

    Hashimoto, Mikihiro; Nozoe, Takashi; Nakaoka, Hidenori; Okura, Reiko; Akiyoshi, Sayo; Kaneko, Kunihiko; Kussell, Edo; Wakamoto, Yuichi

    2016-01-01

    Cellular populations in both nature and the laboratory are composed of phenotypically heterogeneous individuals that compete with each other resulting in complex population dynamics. Predicting population growth characteristics based on knowledge of heterogeneous single-cell dynamics remains challenging. By observing groups of cells for hundreds of generations at single-cell resolution, we reveal that growth noise causes clonal populations of Escherichia coli to double faster than the mean doubling time of their constituent single cells across a broad set of balanced-growth conditions. We show that the population-level growth rate gain as well as age structures of populations and of cell lineages in competition are predictable. Furthermore, we theoretically reveal that the growth rate gain can be linked with the relative entropy of lineage generation time distributions. Unexpectedly, we find an empirical linear relation between the means and the variances of generation times across conditions, which provides a general constraint on maximal growth rates. Together, these results demonstrate a fundamental benefit of noise for population growth, and identify a growth law that sets a “speed limit” for proliferation. PMID:26951676

  11. Marriage, divorce, and remarriage in the 1990's.

    PubMed

    Norton, A J; Miller, L F

    1992-10-01

    Recent trends in marriage, divorce and redivorce, and remarriage were gleaned from cohort data from the US Supplement to the Current Population Survey, 1990, on the frequency of women entering and exiting a verity of marital statuses. Marriage patterns are described also in terms of their interrelationship with educational attainment, fertility history, age, race and Hispanic origin, age at marital event, and duration in marital status. the effects of marriage patterns on children are also considered. Future trends are anticipated along with their impact on families. The trend has been toward a significant number of adults and children living in one-parent families. This situation is also usually one of poverty and social deprivation. The time spent by children in one-parent families is estimated at almost 50%. There are 14 detailed tables to supplement the text. The appended tables and discussion provide background information on the accuracy of estimates. The increasing trend of divorce has meant that between the 1960s and 1980 the divorce rate doubled and reached the point where 1 out of 2 marriages was expected to end in divorce. During the 1980s, the rate remained the same, and first marriage and remarriage declined. Declines may be due to delay in marriage or to more people never marrying. Between 1975 and 1990, the percent of women ever married declined for all age groups; for women 20-24 years old the decline was from 63 to 38%. Marriage patterns were different for Blacks and Whites, but both experienced declines in first marriage. Black women will marry later than White women and will include a greater proportion who will never marry. Hispanic patterns were similar those of Whites. The slight drop in the percent divorcing after a first marriage between 1985 and 1990 showed less divorce for the younger age groups and more for the older age groups. 4 of 10 marriages involve a second or higher order marriage for 1 or both partners. The percent remarrying

  12. The population growth and desertification crisis.

    PubMed

    Milas, S

    1985-01-01

    Desertification is a result of overexploitation of the land through overcultivation, overgrazing, deforestation, and poor irrigation practices. This process is a result of the growing imbalance between population, resources, environment, and development. The principle problem causing desertification is not population increase per se; rather, it is due to mismanagement of the land. However, rapidly increasing population densities in the drylands of Africa, Asia, and Latin America have upset the former balance upon which subsistence agriculture depended, including long fallow periods to allow the land to regain its fertility. Arable land for the world as a whole is projected to decrease from its 1975 level of .31 ha/person to .15 ha/person by the year 2000. Population increases in the remaining croplands are expected to produce further encroachment on rangelands and forests and increased ecologic degradation, in turn producing further population pressure, poverty, land degradation, and desertification. The basic need is for better resource utilization. Halting desertification requires the restoration of the balance between man and land. Development, good resource management, and use of appropriate technologic advances are key factors. There is also a crucial need for each country to relate its population policy to its resource base and development plans. Population increase cannot continue indefinitely without regard for the realities of resources, development, and the environment.

  13. Outcomes of children of extremely low birthweight and gestational age in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Hack, M; Fanaroff, A A

    2000-05-01

    Advances in perinatal care have improved the chances for survival of extremely low birthweight (<800 grams) and gestational age (<26 weeks) infants. A review of the world literature reveals that among regional populations, survival at 23 weeks' gestation ranges from 2 to 35%, at 24 weeks' gestation 17 to 62% and at 25 weeks' gestation 35 to 72%. These wide variations may be accounted for by differences in population descriptors, in the criteria used for starting or withdrawing treatment, in the reported duration of survival and differences in care. Major neonatal morbidity increases with decreasing gestational age and birthweight. At 23 weeks' gestation, chronic lung disease occurs in 57 to 86% of survivors, at 24 weeks in 33 to 89% and at 25 weeks' gestation in 16 to 71% of survivors. The rates of severe cerebral ultrasound abnormality range from 10 to 83% at 23 weeks' gestation, 9 to 64% at 24 weeks and 7 to 22% at 25 weeks' gestation Of 77 survivors at 23 weeks' gestation, 26 (34%) have severe disability (defined as subnormal cognitive function, cerebral palsy, blindness and/or deafness). At 24 weeks' gestation, the rates of severe neurodevelopmental disability range from 22 to 45%, and at 25 weeks' gestation 12 to 35%. When compared with children born prior to the 1990s, the rates of neurodevelopmental disability have, in general, remained unchanged. We conclude that, with current methods of care, the limits of viability have been reached. The continuing toll of major neonatal morbidity and neurodevelopmental handicap are of serious concern.

  14. World Population: The Present and Future Crisis. Headline Series 251.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piotrow, Phyllis T.

    This booklet focuses on demographic change during the 1980s and 1990s, with special emphasis on the social and political pressures of accelerated demographic growth. It is intended for use in classrooms, community discussion groups, and seminars. Two world population trends are designated as most likely to dominate the demographic picture in the…

  15. Educational Inequalities among Latin American Adolescents: Continuities and Changes over the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s

    PubMed Central

    Marteleto, Letícia; Gelber, Denisse; Hubert, Celia; Salinas, Viviana

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to examine recent trends in educational stratification for Latin American adolescents growing up in three distinct periods: the 1980s, during severe recession; the 1990s, a period of structural adjustments imposed by international organizations; and the late 2000s, when most countries in the region experienced positive and stable growth. In addition to school enrollment and educational transitions, we examine the quality of education through enrollment in private schools, an important aspect of inequality in education that most studies have neglected. We use nationally representative household survey data for the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s in Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay. Our overall findings confirm the importance of macroeconomic conditions for inequalities in educational opportunity, suggesting important benefits brought up by the favorable conditions of the 2000s. However, our findings also call attention to increasing disadvantages associated with the quality of the education adolescents receive, suggesting the significance of the EMI framework—Effectively Maintained Inequality—and highlighting the value of examining the quality in addition to the quantity of education in order to fully understand educational stratification in the Latin American context. PMID:22962512

  16. The growth and prospects of population sociology in China.

    PubMed

    Li, M

    1989-01-01

    Population sociology is an immature science in China. Several issues are important to consider as population sociology develops. 1) Research subjects need to be specified more rigorously. 2) More indepth discussion needs to take place on a system of research. 3) Population sociology needs to be explained in terms of the relationship to socialism and the contribution to population policies. The future of population sociology within population science is secure because the Party's session in 1978 adopted guidelines to promote the development of science and culture, and because it is necessary to the understanding of population problems in the socialist modernization. Population sociology plays a major role with population economics in policy formation. A large number of scholars have invested effort in the dicipline. One of the basic characteristics of population sociology is the ability to view population and social development dynamically. Research covers population problems related to social problems, and vice versa. It is distinct from other sciences, particularly in research scope. It studies the effects of social elements and population development on one another, which delineates the incompatibility between population growth and social development. China's population sociology did not begin until 1978, even though worldwide the discipline was founded early in the century and grew rapidly during World War II. China's population growth is a hindrance to social and economic development, and more indepth studies are needed to analyze the conflicts between population and modern Chinese society and economy, and to assess how best to slow the population growth. There have been 4 basic views on the study of population sociology. The 1st view is that endorsed by Soviet scholars and emphasizes sociolgical principles which affect population growth. This position is population sociology as a brance of sociology rather than as an independent science. The 2nd view pertains

  17. Accountable care organizations may have difficulty avoiding the failures of integrated delivery networks of the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Burns, Lawton R; Pauly, Mark V

    2012-11-01

    Accountable care organizations are intended to improve the quality and lower the cost of health care through several mechanisms, such as disease management programs, care coordination, and aligning financial incentives for hospitals and physicians. Providers employed several of these mechanisms in forming the integrated delivery networks of the 1990s. The networks failed, however, because of heavy financial losses stemming from hospitals' purchase of physician practices and their inability to align incentives, garner capitated contracts, and develop the infrastructure to manage risk. Although the current mechanisms underlying accountable care organizations continue to evolve, whether and how they will have an impact on quality and costs remains open to question. Care coordination and information technology are proving more complicated and expensive to implement than anticipated, providers may lack the ability to implement these mechanisms, and primary care providers are in short supply. As in the 1990s, success depends on targeting specific populations, such as people with multiple chronic conditions who need and may benefit from coordinated care.

  18. Population growth, development and the environment.

    PubMed

    Keyfitz, N

    1996-11-01

    When Population Studies was founded in 1946 a main preoccupation of demographers and of the public was the prospective decline of the British population, and the falling off of its quality because on the average a poor family had more children than a better-off one. Over the course of the 50 years interests have shifted to the aging of populations as births decline and mortality improves; immigration, immigrants being welcomed for the decades after the war, and subsequently facing hostile political pressures; environmental degradation and the spread of new diseases. The fall in the birth rate, required both for development and for protection of the environment, is spreading from the original industrialized countries of Europe and America to Asia, somewhat more slowly to Latin America, slowest of all to Africa.

  19. Food Production, Population Growth, and Environmental Quality. Caltech Population Program Occasional Papers, Series 1, Number 7.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groth, Edward, III

    This paper, one in a series of occasional publications, discusses trends in food production and population growth, emphasizing how environmental quality will be affected. The series is intended to increase understanding of the interrelationships between population growth and socioeconomic and cultural patterns throughout the world, and to…

  20. Using Lemna to Study Geometric Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeBuhr, Larry E.

    1991-01-01

    An experiment in which students collect and analyze data on the population size of a real organism rather that on a model is presented. The activity allows for the integration of mathematics, graphing techniques, and the use of computers. The lesson is designed to follow the learning cycle format. (KR)

  1. Ecology and habitat of breeding Northern Goshawks in the inland Pacific Northwest: A summary of research in the 1990s

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeStefano, S.; McGrath, M.T.; Daw, S.K.; Desimone, S.M.

    2006-01-01

    During the 1990s, we conducted research on the distribution, productivity, and habitat relationships of Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) in eastern Oregon and Washington. Our research was initiated primarily in response to concerns raised about the status of Northern Goshawks in the western US, and coincided with early attempts to list the species as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act and the publication of management guidelines for goshawks in the southwestern US. To develop baseline information on the status, distribution, and habitat relationships of goshawks in eastside forests (i.e., east of the Cascade Mountain Range) in the Pacific Northwest, we established study areas on three national forests in eastern Oregon in 1992, adding a fourth study area in central Washington in 1994. We focused on the breeding season and nesting habitat because of its primary importance to goshawk ecology and the logistical feasibility of finding nests. Density of breeding pairs ranged from 0.03-0.09/100 ha, and annual productivity ranged from 0.3-2.2 young fledged/nest. Goshawks selected forest stands with trees of larger diameter and greater canopy closure for nesting than available in the landscape. Occasionally nests could be found in large trees in open-canopied stands. As distance increased from the nest site, forest type and structure became more heterogeneous and the prevalence of older-seral-stage forest declined. Dry or wet openings were present in most territories, often within close proximity to nest stands. Goshawks ate a variety of mammalian and avian prey. Mammal species made up a larger portion of prey biomass on two of the national forests, but avian species appeared to be more prevalent in the diet of goshawks in the most northern study area. We recommend that the existing management guidelines for goshawks in the Southwest form a basis for management in the inland Pacific Northwest, particularly with regard to nested spatial concepts

  2. Gay and Bisexual men's use of the Internet: Research from the 1990s through 2013

    PubMed Central

    Grov, Christian; Breslow, Aaron S.; Newcomb, Michael E.; Rosenberger, Joshua G.; Bauermeister, Jose A

    2014-01-01

    In this review, we document the historical and cultural shifts in how gay and bisexual men have used the Internet for sexuality between the 1990s and 2013. Over that time, gay and bisexual men have rapidly taken to using the Internet for sexual purposes: sexual health information seeking, finding sex partners, dating, cybersex, and pornography. Gay and bisexual men have adapted to the ever-evolving technological advances that have been made in connecting users to the Internet—from logging into the World Wide Web via dial-up modem on a desktop computer to geo-social and sexual networking via a handheld device. In kind, researchers too have adapted to the Internet to study gay and bisexual men, though not at the same rapid pace at which technology (and its users) have advanced. Studies have carefully considered the ethics, feasibility, and acceptability of using the Internet to conduct research and interventions with gay and bisexual men. Much of this work has been grounded in models of disease prevention, largely as a result of the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic. The urgent need to reduce HIV in this population has been a driving force to develop innovative research and Internet-based intervention methodologies. Moving forward, a more holistic understanding of gay and bisexual men's sexual behavior might be warranted to address continued HIV and STI disparities. The Internet, and specifically mobile technology, is an environment gay and bisexual men are using for sexual purposes. These innovative technologies represent powerful resources for researchers to study and provide rapidly evolving outreach to gay and bisexual men. PMID:24754360

  3. [Age structure and growth characteristic of Castanopsis fargesii population].

    PubMed

    Song, Kun; Da, Liang-jun; Yang, Tong-hui; Yang, Xu-feng

    2007-02-01

    In this paper, the age structure and growth characteristics of Castanopsis fargesii population in a shade-tolerant broadleaved evergreen forest were studied, aimed to understand more about the regeneration patterns and dynamics of this population. The results showed that the age structure of C. fargesii population was of sporadic type, with two death peaks of a 30-year gap. This population had a good plasticity in growth to light condition. Because there were no significant differences in light condition under the canopy in vertical, the saplings came into their first suppression period when they were 5-8 years old, with a height growth rate less than 0. 1 m x a(-1) lasting for 10 years. The beginning time of the first growth suppression period was by the end of the first death peak of the population, and the ending time of the first growth suppression period was at the beginning of the second death peak of the population, demonstrating that growth characteristic was the key factor affecting the age structure of C. fargesii.

  4. Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record

    PubMed Central

    Zahid, H. Jabran; Robinson, Erick; Kelly, Robert L.

    2016-01-01

    The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide. PMID:26699457

  5. Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record.

    PubMed

    Zahid, H Jabran; Robinson, Erick; Kelly, Robert L

    2016-01-26

    The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide.

  6. Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record.

    PubMed

    Zahid, H Jabran; Robinson, Erick; Kelly, Robert L

    2016-01-26

    The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide. PMID:26699457

  7. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  8. Population Growth and Global Security: Toward an American Strategic Commitment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mumford, Steven

    1981-01-01

    Addresses the world population problem by highlighting three crucial areas: the relationship between population growth control and national security issues, the role of American leadership in resolving the problem, and the barriers to effective action. One barrier discussed in detail is the Roman Catholic Church's stand on abortion and…

  9. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  10. Equality, Diversity and Opportunity: Civil Rights and Affirmative Action in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winston, Judith A.

    1991-01-01

    Challenges to civil rights and affirmative action in the 1990s are identified. Five cases of racial, sex, ethnic, and reverse discrimination behind the Civil Rights bills of 1990 and 1991 are discussed. The ultimate challenge is to demonstrate that if civil rights litigants win, others need not lose. (SLD)

  11. Glass Ceiling in Academic Administration in Turkey: 1990s versus 2000s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gunluk-Senesen, Gulay

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses the glass ceiling for academics in the Turkish universities with reference to top administration positions: rectors and deans. Glass ceiling indicators show that the glass ceiling thickened from the 1990s to late 2000s. The findings are discussed against the background of the transformation in the Turkish universities in the…

  12. Take a Field Trip through the 1990's. Celebrate the Century Education Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Postal Service, Washington, DC.

    Using the "Celebrate the Century" stamp series, this U.S. Postal Service series commemorates the 20th-century and teaches students about the people, places, and events that have shaped this nation during the past 100 years. Each kit is designed to be taught as a complete and independent unit. This kit, which focuses on the 1990s, contains: (1) 10…

  13. Putting Children First: A Progressive Family Policy for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kamarck, Elaine Ciulla; Galston, William A.

    Four policy papers delineate a progressive family policy for the 1990s that makes the family central among social issues and children central in families. An extensive introduction delineates the split between leaders' and ordinary citizens' views on the family and provides a summary of the papers. The first paper offers an economic review of the…

  14. Focus on the 1990's: International Trade Opportunities for the Permian Basin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Midland Coll., TX. Business and Economic Development Center.

    Designed to highlight business opportunities of the 1990s as well as available educational programs relating to international business, this report contains six presentations from a 1990 conference on international trade hosted by Midland College (MC). The first article, "Texas in the Global Economy: Attitude and Opportunity," by John A. Adams,…

  15. Technology Teaching or Mediated Learning, Part II, 1990s: Literacy Linkages and Intervention Contexts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coufal, Kathy L.

    2002-01-01

    Themes during the 1990s included the bootstrapping effects between oral and literate language, importance of supporting emergent literacy, parallels between oral language impairment and academic failure, and challenges in facilitating language learning. This article addresses questions posed in Part I related to use of computer technology for…

  16. The Mid-1990s Earned Income Tax Credit Expansion: EITC and Welfare Caseloads

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lim, Younghee

    2008-01-01

    Research and policy scholars have suggested that recent welfare caseload reductions have coincided with welfare reform efforts; however, few studies have incorporated the impacts of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) expansions in the 1990s. Using annual state-level administrative data, the author estimated the effects of the fully phased-in…

  17. 73. Photocopy of original drawing, author unknown, late 1990's (original ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    73. Photocopy of original drawing, author unknown, late 1990's (original in possession of New York City Department of Transportation), bridge elevation - Macombs Dam Bridge, Spanning Harlem River Between 155th Street Viaduct, Jerome Avenue, & East 162nd Street, Bronx, Bronx County, NY

  18. Issues and Concerns for Local Government: Virginia in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crockett, Mark

    Many challenges face local governments in Virginia and nationwide in the 1990s. As federal funding has decreased, local governments have been forced to take on greater responsibilities. This increased workload has created a greater demand for resources and forced many localities to raise taxes. Citizens have often voiced opposition to these tax…

  19. Food for Thought: Children's Diets in the 1990s. Policy Brief.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gleason, Philip; Suitor, Carol

    Since the late 1980s, identifying nutritional problems in children's and adults' diets and developing initiatives to help Americans improve what they eat have received considerable attention. This policy brief summarizes 2 studies of children's nutrition with the objectives of describing the diets of school-age children as of the mid-1990s,…

  20. Mexican American Women's Activism at Indiana University in the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Ebelia

    2013-01-01

    This article offers a historical analysis of documents and narratives from Mexican American women that reflect the tumultuous 1990s at Indiana University. Their recollections reveal how they became activists, the racist incidents that compelled them into activism, and the racial tensions and backlash towards identity politics felt by students of…

  1. The Social Equation of Life, Be It the 1950s or the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quint, Sharon

    1997-01-01

    In "Raising Children in a Socially Toxic Environment," James Garbarino's nostalgic recollection of family, school, and neighborhood life in the 1950s becomes the utopian antecedent for a comparative bashing of contemporary times. Although racial stratification and social/economic marginality compromise 1990s families' child-raising efforts, it was…

  2. Feature Articles on African Americans in Sports Illustrated in the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angela Lumpkin

    2009-01-01

    This descriptive study examined whether the coverage of African Americans in the feature articles in Sports Illustrated during the 1990s was representative of their participation levels. Nearly half of the articles featured European Americans; about one-third featured African Americans. More African Americans were featured in basketball, boxing,…

  3. Strategies for Children in the 1990s. A UNICEF Policy Review.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This policy review presents the views and proposals of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) concerning development goals and strategies for the 1990s. A brief review of the previous development decades in the first section is followed by an overview of the evolution of the situation of children in the 1980s. The third section summarizes the…

  4. Information Systems in the University of Saskatchewan Libraries: A Vision for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon. Libraries.

    This report describes the vision of the Information Systems Advisory Committee (ISAC) of an Information Systems Model for the 1990s. It includes an evaluation of the present automation environment at the university, a vision of library automation at the University of Saskatchewan between 1994 and 1999, and specific recommendations on such issues…

  5. A Just Transition? Lessons from Defense Worker Adjustment in the 1990s. Technical Paper No. 237.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powers, Laura; Markusen, Ann

    A study examined the experiences of some 1.4 million American defense industry workers, displaced in the wake of the Cold War, as a way of reviewing and evaluating national policies toward worker adjustment and re-employment as they have evolved in the 1990s. The study found that the federal government, through the Department of Labor,…

  6. Instructional Leaders for the 1990s: Improving the Analysis of Teaching.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Acheson, Keith A.

    1990-01-01

    Arguing that instructional leadership changes are inevitable during the 1990s, this Bulletin explores instructional leaders' roles and functions, along with some leadership styles, strategies, and skills, and proposes an administrator training program. Chapter 1 introduces six "organizers" for examining instructional leadership: setting,…

  7. Rethinking School Finance: An Agenda for the 1990s. The Jossey-Bass Education Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Odden, Allan R., Ed.

    This book lays the groundwork for rethinking school finance in the context of new educational policy directions for the 1990s. Proposed educational reforms have created several school finance issues: (1) the linkage between the basic school finance structure, educational goals, and the cost of effective schoolwide strategies; (2) site-based…

  8. El Nino During the 1990's: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2000-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.

  9. El Nino During the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2000-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.

  10. El Nino during the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1999-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990s has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein, however, appear to mitigate this belief. For example, regarding the frequency and severity of El Nino, the decade of the 1990s is found to compare quite favorably with that of preceding decades. Hence, the 1990s probably should not be regarded as being anomalous. On the other hand, the number of El Nino-related months per decade has sharply increased during the 1990s, as compared to the preceding four decades, hinting of a marginally significant upward trend. Perhaps, this is an indication that the Earth is now experiencing an ongoing global climatic change. Continued vigilance during the new millennium, therefore, is of paramount importance for determining whether or not this "hint" of a global change is real or if it merely reflects a normal fluctuation of climate.

  11. Factors affecting Yukon teen pregnancy decline in the mid and late 1990s.

    PubMed

    Wackett, Jeff

    2002-11-01

    Teen pregnancy has declined throughout North America in the 1990s. In Yukon Territory, Canada, teen pregnancy in the late 1990s was almost 40% lower than in the early 1990s. This rate of decline is significantly greater than most recently reported national rates of teen pregnancy decline in Canada and United States. Identifying possible causes of the Yukon decline may help policy makers and program managers plan and implement teen pregnancy prevention strategies. Data on Yukon teen pregnancy prevention initiatives were collected through numerous discussions and interviews with Yukon service providers, teens, and the general public between 1994 and 2001. Analysis of data demonstrates that multiple new initiatives spanning many sectors were implemented in the mid and late 1990s that could have contributed to the decline in Yukon teen pregnancy. A multi-dimensional approach to teen pregnancy prevention that included researching and evaluating family planning programs and policies before, during, and after implementation, increasing access to longer-acting hormonal contraceptives, providing continuing family planning medical education to health care providers and other youth service providers, subsidization of contraceptives, delivery of innovative family planning mass media campaigns, and delivery of ongoing sexual health education programs may have significantly contributed to the decline in Yukon teen pregnancy. Collaboration among service providers across many service sectors (clinical, public health, education, First Nations, government communication and policy, grassroots) facilitated coordination of the multi-dimensional approach.

  12. The Role of Communication Satellites in Education and Training: The 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Polcyn, Kenneth A.

    1981-01-01

    Presents an overview of satellite technology and trends in its use, reviews the evolution of education and training applications of communication satellites, and prognosticates about the possible national and international uses during the 1990s. A bibliography of 26 items is included. (CHC)

  13. Grade Inflation Marches On: Grade Increases from the 1990s to 2000s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kostal, Jack W.; Kuncel, Nathan R.; Sackett, Paul R.

    2016-01-01

    Grade inflation threatens the integrity of college grades as indicators of academic achievement. In this study, we contribute to the literature on grade inflation by providing the first estimate of the size of grade increases at the student level between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s. By controlling for student characteristics and course-taking…

  14. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    PubMed

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  15. The “Cuban Epidemic Neuropathy” of the 1990s: A glimpse from inside a totalitarian disease

    PubMed Central

    Coutin-Churchman, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    During the 1990s, Cuba was struck by a rare epidemic disease. Up to 50,000 people were affected by a pathology compromising primarily the optic nerve but also peripheral nerves and even spinal cord. This is a testimony from a direct witness and participant in the initial study of the epidemics showing that in spite of claims of a “multifactorial” etiology, still in the literature, the root cause of this disease is just result of the deliberate deprivation of the most elementary economic rights by extreme Government control over a population left unable to tend to its elementary survival by itself, in spite of a thorough Government-sponsored, universally celebrated Universal Healthcare System. PMID:25024884

  16. A Stochastic Super-Exponential Growth Model for Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avila, P.; Rekker, A.

    2010-11-01

    A super-exponential growth model with environmental noise has been studied analytically. Super-exponential growth rate is a property of dynamical systems exhibiting endogenous nonlinear positive feedback, i.e., of self-reinforcing systems. Environmental noise acts on the growth rate multiplicatively and is assumed to be Gaussian white noise in the Stratonovich interpretation. An analysis of the stochastic super-exponential growth model with derivations of exact analytical formulae for the conditional probability density and the mean value of the population abundance are presented. Interpretations and various applications of the results are discussed.

  17. [Rapid population growth is unfavorable to prosperity of minority areas].

    PubMed

    Zhang, T

    1991-04-01

    According to China's 1990 census, the ethnic minority population increased by 35.5% from the 1982 census, 23 percentage points higher than the Han nationality. Among 55 ethnic minorities, 16 had growth rates of over 50% between 1982 and 1990. The Korean ethnic minority had the lowest growth rate, which was only 8.73%. The high growth rate of the ethnic minority population was due to the high level of natural increase and policy factors. With the changing policies toward ethnic minorities, preferential treatment has been give to the them in education, employment, career promotion, and childbearing quota. These policies stimulated switching from the Han nationality to the minority status. 50-60% of growth in the minority population between the 2 censuses has been attributed to the status switching. The per capita GNP in the minority administrative areas was 54.9% lower than in Han areas in 1980. It became 69% lower in 1988. Excessive growth of the ethnic minority population hindered education attainment and economic and resources development. Some ethnic minorities have an illiteracy rate of over 90% and an infant mortality rate of 171/1000. The ecological environment in certain minority areas is deteriorating due to extensive tree-felling and primitive farming methods. In contrast, the Korean minority developed its education program earlier on. Its total fertility rate has been around 1.4 since 1974 and it is gradually changing into a stationary population. Currently, no Korean National counties or townships are below the poverty line. The prevalence of disability is 3.5% in the Korean population, the lowest of all the ethnic groups. It is important to focus population programs among the ethnic minorities to increase their health and educational status. Promoting family planning programs, strictly enforcing the criteria for switching to minority status or setting deadlines to preference treatment eligibility for those who switched status could be possible policies

  18. Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

    PubMed

    Okpala, A O

    1990-12-01

    The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

  19. Outcomes of children of extremely low birthweight and gestational age in the 1990's.

    PubMed

    Hack, M; Fanaroff, A A

    1999-01-01

    Advances in perinatal care have improved the chances for survival of extremely low birthweight (< 800 g) and gestational age (< 26 weeks) infants. A review of the world literature and our own experience reveals that at 23 weeks gestation survival ranges from 2% to 35%. At 24 weeks gestation the range is 17% to 58%, and at 25 weeks gestation 35% to 85%. Differences in population descriptors, in the initiation and withdrawal of treatment and the duration of survival considered may account for the wide variations in the reported ranges of survival. Major neonatal morbidity increases with decreasing gestational age and birthweight. The rates of severe cerebral ultrasound abnormality range at 23 weeks gestation from 10% to 83%, at 24 weeks from 17% to 64% and at 25 weeks gestation from 10% to 22%. At 23 weeks gestation, chronic lung disease occurs in 57% to 70% of survivors, at 24 weeks in 33% to 89%, and at 25 weeks gestation in 16% to 71% of survivors. When compared to children born prior to the 1990's, the rates of neurodevelopmental disability have, in general, remained unchanged. Of 30 survivors reported at 23 weeks gestation nine (30%) are severely disabled. At 24 weeks gestation the rates of severe neurodevelopmental disability (including subnormal cognitive function, cerebral palsy, blindness and deafness) range from 17% to 45%, and at 25 weeks gestation 12% to 35% are similarly affected. In Cleveland, Ohio, we compared the outcomes of 114 children with birthweight 500-749 g born 1990-1992 to 112 infants born 1993-1995. Twenty month survival was similar (43% vs 38%). The use of antenatal and postnatal steroids increased (10% vs 54% and 43% vs 84%, respectively, P< 0.001), however the rates of chronic lung disease increased from 41% to 63% (P = 0.06). There was a significant increase in the rate of subnormal cognitive function at 20 months corrected age (20% vs 48%, P < 0.02) and a trend to an increase in the rate of cerebral palsy (10% vs 16%) and

  20. Understanding the size growth of massive galaxies through stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreras, Ignacio

    2015-08-01

    The growth of massive galaxies remains an open problem. The observational evidence seems to converge on a two-stage scenario, where a compact massive core is formed during an early, intense burst, followed by a more extended process of mass and size growth at intermediate redshift (z<2). This talk focuses on the latter, exploring the growth of massive galaxies through a detailed analysis of the stellar populations in close pairs, to study their formation history. Two surveys are explored (SHARDS and GAMA), probing the stellar populations of pre-merging systems out to z~1.3, and down to a mass ratio ~1:100. We will compare the results between medium band spectral fitting (SHARDS) and those from a more targeted analysis of line strengths in the GAMA data. The combination of the two datasets provide a unique insight of the growth channel of massive galaxies via mergers.

  1. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  2. A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Grand, J.B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokvim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (??) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (?? = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on ?? for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

  3. Population Growth Patterns of Four Species of Aphelenchoides on Fungi

    PubMed Central

    Perper, Timothy; Petriello, Richard

    1977-01-01

    Qualitative and quantitative differences in population growth patterns of Aphelenchoides rutgersi from Florida, A. sacchari from Jamaica, A. dactylocercus from Great Britain, and A. cibolensis from New Mexico were assessed on 28 species of fungi. The patterns of population growth of A. rutgersi and A. sacchari were statistically similar although not identical, and they differed considerably from those of A. dactylocercus and A. cibolensis. It is suggested that A. rutgersi and A. sacchari, from Florida and Jamaica respectively, may be more closely related to each other than to either A. dactylocercus or A. cibolensis. PMID:19305612

  4. Population growth and the benefits from optimally priced externalities.

    PubMed

    Clarke, H R; Ng Y-k

    1995-06-01

    "In this article we show that, considering only economic effects, even if population growth, by natural increase or immigration, increases congestion, pollution, and other forms of external costs, that provided pre-existing citizens own the resources giving rise to the externalities, and provided they efficiently price usage of such, that existing citizens must, in net average terms, be better off with population growth than without it. In simple terms the increased revenues they gain from efficient pricing at increased demand levels will be strictly greater than the monetary value of the increased external costs together with the higher tax costs they incur as consumers of the resources." PMID:12347617

  5. Latino Population Growth and Hospital Uncompensated Care in California

    PubMed Central

    O’Brien, Matthew J.; Mennis, Jeremy; Alos, Victor A.; Grande, David T.; Roby, Dylan H.; Ortega, Alexander N.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined the association between the size and growth of Latino populations and hospitals’ uncompensated care in California. Methods. Our sample consisted of general acute care hospitals in California operating during 2000 and 2010 (n = 251). We merged California hospital data with US Census data for each hospital service area. We used spatial analysis, multivariate regression, and fixed-effect models. Results. We found a significant association between the growth of California’s Latino population and hospitals’ uncompensated care in the unadjusted regression. This association was still significant after we controlled for hospital and community population characteristics. After we added market characteristics into the final model, this relationship became nonsignificant. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that systematic support is needed in areas with rapid Latino population growth to control hospitals’ uncompensated care, especially if Latinos are excluded from or do not respond to the insurance options made available through the Affordable Care Act. Improving availability of resources for hospitals and providers in areas with high Latino population growth could help alleviate financial pressures. PMID:26066960

  6. Global analysis of population growth and river water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Yingrong; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Human-related pressures on river water quality are a concern of global proportions.. However, little is known about the more specific impact of increasing population on river water quality and how it provides a vital environmental reference for water management. Combining global gridded data on population and river discharge with digitized river networks, we conduct numerical simulations to demonstrate the direct impact of population growth on river water quality. Our model traces the transport, dilution, and degradation of anthropogenic organic matter (BOD) emissions into rivers. Spanning the period from the early 20th century to the present, our analysis indicates that the pressure on downstream river networks markedly increased since the population explosion starting in 1950, especially in developing countries. The ratio of population to river discharge reveals the link between impact severity and dilution capacity. In addition, a denser population is found to be correlated with higher impact severity. Consideration of direct population influences on global river water quality becomes limited as society develops and should be studied as a fundamental reference for human-related river water management. Keywords: Population growth, River water quality, Space-time analysis, Human activities, Water Management

  7. The Reform of Secondary Education in Indonesia during the 1990s: Basic Education Expansion and Quality Improvement through Curriculum Decentralization.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeom, Min-Ho; Acedo, Clementina; Utomo, Erry

    2002-01-01

    Case study of two main secondary education reforms in Indonesia in the 1990s: Expansion of basic education and the decentralization of curriculum. Discusses the social, political, and economic trends in the 1990s, context of the secondary education reforms, and the rationale for the reforms. Focuses on the curriculum decentralization design and…

  8. Accelerated deforestation in the humid tropics from the 1990s to the 2000s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Do-Hyung; Sexton, Joseph O.; Townshend, John R.

    2015-05-01

    Using a consistent, 20 year series of high- (30 m) resolution, satellite-based maps of forest cover, we estimate forest area and its changes from 1990 to 2010 in 34 tropical countries that account for the majority of the global area of humid tropical forests. Our estimates indicate a 62% acceleration in net deforestation in the humid tropics from the 1990s to the 2000s, contradicting a 25% reduction reported by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Forest Resource Assessment. Net loss of forest cover peaked from 2000 to 2005. Gross gains accelerated slowly and uniformly between 1990-2000, 2000-2005, and 2005-2010. However, the gains were overwhelmed by gross losses, which peaked from 2000 to 2005 and decelerated afterward. The acceleration of humid tropical deforestation we report contradicts the assertion that losses decelerated from the 1990s to the 2000s.

  9. Freshening of the Labrador Sea Surface Waters in the 1990s: Another Great Salinity Anomaly

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Both the observed and simulated time series of the Labrador Sea surface salinities show a major freshening event since the middles. It continues the series of decoder events of the 1970s and 1980s from which the freshening in the early 1970's was named as the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA). These events are especially distinguishable in the late summer (August and September) time series. The observed data suggests that the 1990's freshening may equal the GSA in magnitude. This recent event is associated with a large reduction in the overturning rate between the early and latter part of the 1990s. Both the observations and model results indicate that the surface salinity conditions appear to be returning towards normal daring 1999 and 2000 in the coastal area, but offshore, the model predicts the freshening to linger on after peaking 1997.

  10. Transformational leaders. Ten practices to help executives meet the challenges of the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Woodard, D A

    1992-11-01

    Today, healthcare chief executive officers (CEOs) face many pressing issues. To survive the 1990s, CEOs must master "transformational practices" such as continuous quality improvement. CEOs can adopt the following 10 practices to help them become transformational leaders: Establish and act on key commitments. Form teams. Establish a job shadow program. Brainstorm more. Befriend the opposition. Communicate more. Wipe out gossip. Look for breakdowns. Revise the appraisal system.

  11. NASA plans and opportunities. [space flight activities throughout the 1990s

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sulzman, Frank M.

    1991-01-01

    The NASA plans for the Life Science program of a series of space flight activities throughout the decade of the 1990s are discussed with particular attention given to the NASA life science goals and objectives and to the particular space missions which will carry out these objectives. These space missions and specially designed facilities for experiments in space include Space Station Freedom, Space Biology Initiative, Gravitational Biology Facility, Life Sciences Centrifuge Facility, Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems Test Facility, and Exobiology Facility.

  12. Red blood cell transfusion practices in very low birth weight infants in 1990s postsurfactant era.

    PubMed Central

    Beeram, M. R.; Krauss, D. R.; Riggs, M. W.

    2001-01-01

    The purposes of this study are (1) to evaluate the practice of red blood cell transfusions in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants (between 501 to 1500 g) during the postsurfactant era of the 1990s; and (2) to evaluate if there is a decreasing trend in red cell transfusions in the 1990s. Database and medical records of VLBW infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) between January 1990 and December 1995 at Scott & White Clinic, Temple, Texas, were reviewed. Five hundred twenty-seven infants were admitted to the NICU, excluding 5 infants that were transferred out for possible cardiac surgery or for other reasons. Fifty one (9.7%) of these infants died prior to discharge. Hence, data from 476 survivors were reviewed for red blood cell (RBC) transfusions. Transfusions were given at the discretion of the attending neonatologist. None of the infants received erythropoietin. Of the 476 infants, 289 (61%) received RBC transfusions during the hospital stay, with 2.7+/-3.6 transfusions per infant with a volume of 40.5+/-50.4 mL/kg. Smaller infants required significantly more transfusions compared to larger infants when divided into 250-g subgroups. No statistically significant difference was noted in the number of RBC transfusions per infant or number of infants transfused during the 6-year period from year to year. We conclude that VLBW infants in the 1990s postsurfactant era required 2.7 RBC transfusions per infant, on average, with the smallest infants requiring the most transfusions. These data will be helpful to counsel mothers in preterm labor regarding the need of transfusions for each birth weight category. Red cell transfusion practice has not changed over this 6-year period in the 1990s. Additional measures such as erythropoietin or even stricter transfusion criteria may be necessary to decrease transfusions further. However, safety of such measures should be carefully evaluated. PMID:11688921

  13. The Population Growth Consequences of Variation in Individual Heterozygosity

    PubMed Central

    Di Fonzo, Martina M. I.; Pelletier, Fanie; Clutton-Brock, T.H.; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Coulson, Tim

    2011-01-01

    Heterozygosity has been associated with components of fitness in numerous studies across a wide range of taxa. Because heterozygosity is associated with individual performance it is also expected to be associated with population dynamics. However, investigations into the association between heterozygosity and population dynamics have been rare because of difficulties in linking evolutionary and ecological processes. The choice of heterozygosity measure is a further issue confounding such studies as it can be biased by individual differences in the frequencies of the alleles studied, the number of alleles at each locus as well as the total number of loci typed. In this study, we first examine the differences between the principal metrics used to calculate heterozygosity using long-term data from a marked population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Next, by means of statistical transformation of the homozygosity weighted by loci index, we determine how heterozygosity contributes to population growth in Soay sheep by modelling individual contributions to population growth (pt(i)) as a function of several covariates, including sex, weight and faecal egg count – a surrogate of parasitic nematode burden in the gut. We demonstrate that although heterozygosity is associated with some components of fitness, most notably adult male reproductive success, in general it is only weakly associated with population growth. PMID:21611172

  14. Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Haozhe; Yang, Jing; Gong, Daoyi; Mao, Rui; Wang, Yuqing; Gao, Miaoni

    2015-12-01

    A pronounced decadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the late 1990s was identified. Based on a comparison of the two epochs that occurred before and after the late 1990s, the TC genesis number exhibited an evident decrease over the southern WNP (S-WNP: 5°-20°N, 105°-170°E) and an increase over the northern WNP (N-WNP: 20°-25°N, 115°-155°E), which partly corresponded to a significant northward migration in the seasonal mean latitudinal location of TC genesis, i.e., from 17.2°N to 18.7°N. After the late 1990s, the northwestward-moving track became the most dominant track mode, accompanied by the weakening of both the westward-moving track and the northeastward-recurving track. Meanwhile, the TC occurrence frequency (TCF) experienced evident increases over southeastern China and the Okinawa islands, while prominent decreases occurred over the South China Sea, the Philippine Sea, Japan and east of Japan. Changes in the TCF were determined by TC genesis changes, TC track shifts and variations in regional TC durations, which were all ascribed to the decadal change in tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. The full picture on the decadal changes in the WNP TC activity revealed in this study may provide useful guidance for regional TC seasonal forecasts and future projections.

  15. Growth, survival, longevity, and population size of the Big Mouth Cave salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides) from the type locality in Grundy County, Tennessee, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Niemiller, Matthew L.; Glorioso, Brad M.; Fenolio, Dante B.; Reynolds, R. Graham; Taylor, Steven J.; Miller, Brian T.

    2016-01-01

    Salamander species that live entirely in subterranean habitats have evolved adaptations that allow them to cope with perpetual darkness and limited energy resources. We conducted a 26-month mark–recapture study to better understand the individual growth and demography of a population of the Big Mouth Cave Salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides). We employed a growth model to estimate growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and longevity, and an open population model to estimate population size, density, detectability, and survival rates. Furthermore, we examined cover use and evidence of potential predation. Individuals probably reach sexual maturity in 3–5 years and live at least nine years. Survival rates were generally high (>75%) but declined during the study. More than 30% of captured salamanders had regenerating tails or tail damage, which presumably represent predation attempts by conspecifics or crayfishes. Most salamanders (>90%) were found under cover (e.g., rocks, trash, decaying plant material). Based on 11 surveys during the study, population size estimates ranged from 21 to 104 individuals in the ca. 710 m2 study area. Previous surveys indicated that this population experienced a significant decline from the early 1970s through the 1990s, perhaps related to silvicultural and agricultural practices. However, our data suggest that this population has either recovered or stabilized during the past 20 years. Differences in relative abundance between early surveys and our survey could be associated with differences in survey methods or sampling conditions rather than an increase in population size. Regardless, our study demonstrates that this population is larger than previously thought and is in no immediate risk of extirpation, though it does appear to exhibit higher rates of predation than expected for a species believed to be an apex predator of subterranean food webs.

  16. Meteorological limits on the growth and development of screwworm populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phinney, D. E.; Arp, G. K.

    1978-01-01

    A program to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data as an additional tool in existing and projected efforts to eradicate the screwworm began in 1973. Estimating weather conditions by use of remotely sensed data was part of the study. Next, the effect of weather on screwworm populations was modeled. A significant portion of the variation in screwworm population growth and development has been traced to weather-related parameters. This report deals with the salient points of the weather and the screwworm population interaction.

  17. Effects of body size and temperature on population growth.

    PubMed

    Savage, Van M; Gilloly, James F; Brown, James H; Charnov, Eric L

    2004-03-01

    For at least 200 years, since the time of Malthus, population growth has been recognized as providing a critical link between the performance of individual organisms and the ecology and evolution of species. We present a theory that shows how the intrinsic rate of exponential population growth, rmax, and the carrying capacity, K, depend on individual metabolic rate and resource supply rate. To do this, we construct equations for the metabolic rates of entire populations by summing over individuals, and then we combine these population-level equations with Malthusian growth. Thus, the theory makes explicit the relationship between rates of resource supply in the environment and rates of production of new biomass and individuals. These individual-level and population-level processes are inextricably linked because metabolism sets both the demand for environmental resources and the resource allocation to survival, growth, and reproduction. We use the theory to make explicit how and why rmax exhibits its characteristic dependence on body size and temperature. Data for aerobic eukaryotes, including algae, protists, insects, zooplankton, fishes, and mammals, support these predicted scalings for rmax. The metabolic flux of energy and materials also dictates that the carrying capacity or equilibrium density of populations should decrease with increasing body size and increasing temperature. Finally, we argue that body mass and body temperature, through their effects on metabolic rate, can explain most of the variation in fecundity and mortality rates. Data for marine fishes in the field support these predictions for instantaneous rates of mortality. This theory links the rates of metabolism and resource use of individuals to life-history attributes and population dynamics for a broad assortment of organisms, from unicellular organisms to mammals.

  18. Proximate causes of adaptive growth rates: growth efficiency variation among latitudinal populations of Rana temporaria.

    PubMed

    Lindgren, B; Laurila, A

    2005-07-01

    In ectothermic organisms, declining season length and lower temperature towards higher latitudes often select for latitudinal variation in growth and development. However, the energetic mechanisms underlying this adaptive variation are largely unknown. We investigated growth, food intake and growth efficiency of Rana temporaria tadpoles from eight populations along a 1500 km latitudinal gradient across Sweden. To gain an insight into the mechanisms of adaptation at organ level, we also examined variation in tadpole gut length. The tadpoles were raised at two temperatures (16 and 20 degrees C) in a laboratory common garden experiment. We found increased growth rate towards higher latitudes, regardless of temperature treatment. This increase in growth was not because of a higher food intake rate, but populations from higher latitudes had higher growth efficiency, i.e. they were more efficient at converting ingested food into body mass. Low temperature reduced growth efficiency most strongly in southern populations. Relative gut length increased with latitude, and tadpoles at low temperature tended to have longer guts. However, variation in gut length was not the sole adaptive explanation for increased growth efficiency as latitude and body length still explained significant amounts of variation in growth efficiency. Hence, additional energetic adaptations are probably involved in growth efficiency variation along the latitudinal gradient.

  19. [Agricultural backwardness being the fundamental cause of rapid population growth].

    PubMed

    Lin, G

    1981-01-01

    We have been an agricultural country for more than 2000 years. The low level of mechanization and dependence of manpower in our agriculture required a large quantity of labor. Therefore, development of Chinese feudal society was closely related to the population growth. After the establishment of a new socialistic China, the rapid development of agricultural production resulted in our 1st population boom (1952 to 1957). Later the rapid development of heavy industry demanded the transfer of a large amount of labor from agriculture. The shortage of labor in China caused reductions in agriculture and a 2nd population boom. The backward nature of China's agriculture requires increased labor input to increase production. On the other hand, the increased productivity does not match the demands of the increased population. Consequently, living standards in the society decrease and the population growth slows. The emphasis on population control and family planning is indeed beneficial to China's economy. The fundamental solution of China's population problem must rely on a technical revolution in agriculture and increased agricultural productivity. PMID:12263424

  20. The Economic Base of Recent Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan Settings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Long, Larry; DeAre, Diana

    In the late 1970s both jobs and population were growing more rapidly outside metropolitan areas. As a group, nonmetropolitan counties not adjacent to a metropolitan area experienced a faster rate of employment growth than metropolitan areas between 1975-79. Even in rural counties (no urban place of 2,500 or more) not adjacent to a metropolitan…

  1. Computer Simulation of the Population Growth (Schizosaccharomyces Pombe) Experiment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daley, Michael; Hillier, Douglas

    1981-01-01

    Describes a computer program (available from authors) developed to simulate "Growth of a Population (Yeast) Experiment." Students actively revise the counting techniques with realistically simulated haemocytometer or eye-piece grid and are reminded of the necessary dilution technique. Program can be modified to introduce such variables as…

  2. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  3. An American Laboratory: Population Growth and Environmental Quality in California.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McConnell, Robert

    1993-01-01

    Describes the cumulative impact of rapid population growth, industrial and military activity, agriculture, and motor vehicles on California's environmental and social fabric. Discusses these problems in California as a forecast for the nation and test to consensus-based U.S. representative government. (Author/ MCO)

  4. The Educational Effects of Rapid Rural Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Peggy J.; Green, Bernal L.

    Rapid population growth in rural areas has confronted rural communities and particularly rural educational systems with a number of problems. Sudden, large increases in students crowd school facilities and strain budgets. The different values, attitudes, and orientations toward education of the newcomers act as a catalyst for changes and can cause…

  5. Immigration enhances fast growth of a newly established source population.

    PubMed

    Santoro, Simone; Green, Andy J; Figuerola, Jordi

    2016-04-01

    Abstract. Immigration and local recruitment play a central role in determining the growth rate of breeding populations. Unraveling these processes in newly established pop- ulations is of great importance to increase our understanding of how species change their distributions in response to global change. We studied the largest colony of glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus) in Western Europe (established in 1996 in Doñana, SW-Spain) by using capture-recapture methods, count estimates, and projection matrix modeling to: (1) test the effect of resource availability and competition on local recruitment dynamics, (2) investigate the contribution of local recruitment vs. immigration on population growth, and (3) assess the role of this population in source/sink dynamics. We found different dynamics before and after the establishment of satellite colonies in Doñana in 2004. Between 1996 and 2003, the population increased rapidly, fueled by immigrants (≈ 58 breeding females/ yr). Between 2003 and 2007, however, both colony size increase and immigration were negligible. Immigration played a major role in colony growth, but simultaneously this colony was a source population driving expansion of the species range as suggested by (1) absolute and relative estimates of the observed growth rate relative to that predicted by self-recruitment, and (2) numerous observations of Doñana-born individuals breeding elsewhere. Local recruitment, which was particularly high for first-year individuals (probability > 0.8 for the early study years), was not directly related to resource availability or previous-year breeding success. Local recruitment decreased rapidly at a threshold population size, however, when other satellite colonies became established at Dofiana. Our study suggests that even when recruitment at an early age and high productivity are observed, immigration can still play a pivotal role in promoting the fast growth of new populations at the edge of a species range, at

  6. Immigration enhances fast growth of a newly established source population.

    PubMed

    Santoro, Simone; Green, Andy J; Figuerola, Jordi

    2016-04-01

    Abstract. Immigration and local recruitment play a central role in determining the growth rate of breeding populations. Unraveling these processes in newly established pop- ulations is of great importance to increase our understanding of how species change their distributions in response to global change. We studied the largest colony of glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus) in Western Europe (established in 1996 in Doñana, SW-Spain) by using capture-recapture methods, count estimates, and projection matrix modeling to: (1) test the effect of resource availability and competition on local recruitment dynamics, (2) investigate the contribution of local recruitment vs. immigration on population growth, and (3) assess the role of this population in source/sink dynamics. We found different dynamics before and after the establishment of satellite colonies in Doñana in 2004. Between 1996 and 2003, the population increased rapidly, fueled by immigrants (≈ 58 breeding females/ yr). Between 2003 and 2007, however, both colony size increase and immigration were negligible. Immigration played a major role in colony growth, but simultaneously this colony was a source population driving expansion of the species range as suggested by (1) absolute and relative estimates of the observed growth rate relative to that predicted by self-recruitment, and (2) numerous observations of Doñana-born individuals breeding elsewhere. Local recruitment, which was particularly high for first-year individuals (probability > 0.8 for the early study years), was not directly related to resource availability or previous-year breeding success. Local recruitment decreased rapidly at a threshold population size, however, when other satellite colonies became established at Dofiana. Our study suggests that even when recruitment at an early age and high productivity are observed, immigration can still play a pivotal role in promoting the fast growth of new populations at the edge of a species range, at

  7. Habitat-Specific Population Growth of a Farmland Bird

    PubMed Central

    Arlt, Debora; Forslund, Pär; Jeppsson, Tobias; Pärt, Tomas

    2008-01-01

    Background To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use) types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands) displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log λs: −0.332, −0.429, −0.168, respectively), that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log λs: −0.056, +0.081, −0.059). Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE). Conclusions/Significance Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands. PMID:18714351

  8. Itô versus Stratonovich calculus in random population growth.

    PubMed

    Braumann, Carlos A

    2007-03-01

    The context is the general stochastic differential equation (SDE) model dN/dt=N(g(N)+sigmaepsilon(t)) for population growth in a randomly fluctuating environment. Here, N=N(t) is the population size at time t, g(N) is the 'average' per capita growth rate (we work with a general almost arbitrary function g), and sigmaepsilon(t) is the effect of environmental fluctuations (sigma>0, epsilon(t) standard white noise). There are two main stochastic calculus used to interpret the SDE, Itô calculus and Stratonovich calculus. They yield different solutions and even qualitatively different predictions (on extinction, for example). So, there is a controversy on which calculus one should use. We will resolve the controversy and show that the real issue is merely semantic. It is due to the informal interpretation of g(x) as being an (unspecified) 'average' per capita growth rate (when population size is x). The implicit assumption usually made in the literature is that the 'average' growth rate is the same for both calculi, when indeed this rate should be defined in terms of the observed process. We prove that, when using Itô calculus, g(N) is indeed the arithmetic average growth rate R(a)(x) and, when using Stratonovich calculus, g(N) is indeed the geometric average growth rate R(g)(x). Writing the solutions of the SDE in terms of a well-defined average, R(a)(x) or R(g)(x), instead of an undefined 'average' g(x), we prove that the two calculi yield exactly the same solution. The apparent difference was due to the semantic confusion of taking the informal term 'average growth rate' as meaning the same average.

  9. Neighbors' problems, our problems: population growth in Central America.

    PubMed

    Fox, R W

    1990-06-01

    A largely ignored issue, Central America faces its most pressing problem in its soaring population growth, one that is wreaking havoc on its economic and social infrastructures. Rising by a factor of 7, Central America's population -- presently 28.9 million -- is expected to reach 7.7 million by the year 2000, and 62.8 million by 2025. Typical of most of the Third World, Central America's population explosion stems from the fact that while the latter half of the 20th century has seen reductions of mortality rates, brought on by improvements of general health conditions, birth rates have remained excessively high. Despite moderate declines in the birth rate, Central American women still average 3-6 children. These demographic factors pose catastrophic consequences for Central America's natural resources, urban development and labor force. And they also threaten to increase migration to the US. Economic pressures have put great demands on the region's rain forests, exploited both for its resources and cleared away to create farmland. Today, only 40% of the original forest remains, and almost 3% more is destroyed annually. The area's capital cities have seen their populations increase 3-6 fold between 1950 and 1980. This explosion places further demands on already overburdened urban infrastructures, and has led to a mushrooming of squatter settlements. It has also led to a massive increase in the urban labor force which cannot be accommodated by the region's economies, which are in disarray due to falling export commodity earnings, limited natural resources, and scant investment capital. The economic woes could further increase the flow of workers to the US (15-20% of El Salvador's total population has already filed to the US). Historically, the region had attempted to offset population growth through economic development, but such expectations were not met, especially with the economic decline that wiped out gains made during the 1960s and 70s. Only recently have the

  10. Latin American and Caribbean regional conference on population and development. Latin American and Caribbean Consensus on Population and Development.

    PubMed

    1994-01-01

    The Latin American and Caribbean Population and Development Conference was held in Mexico City from April 29 to May 4, 1993, during which discussions were held on population growth, structure, and distribution in the region; socioeconomic trends and implications; population dynamics and development in the Caribbean subregion; population policies and programs; population growth and distribution and their relation to development and the environment; women and population dynamics; and family planning, health, and family well-being. The conference adopted the Latin American and Caribbean Consensus on Population and Development which is presented in sections on the situation of population and development in Latin America and the Caribbean in the early 1990s, and recommendations on population growth and structure, population distribution, development, the environment, women and population dynamics, population policies and programs, health, family planning and well-being, international migration and development, training, data production, research, and international cooperation in the population field.

  11. Islamic Republic of Iran population growth rate declines.

    PubMed

    1996-01-01

    In April 1996, at the 52nd Session of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the delegate from the Islamic Republic of Iran announced that social indicators indicate acceptable improvement. The average population growth rate fell from 3.9% (1981-1991) to less than 2% (1995). High birth rates and an influx of refugees during 1981-1991 accounted for the high population growth rate. The marked decline in the birth rate, brought about mainly by effective family planning and health programs, has contributed greatly to the reduced population growth rate. The government has focused on rural areas. 86% of rural households now have access to piped water. More than 60% have electricity. The overall literacy rate in Iran has reached 79%. The entire population has access to free or subsidized primary health care services. The Second Development Plan of Iran centers on the significance of the role that mothers have in shaping society and individuals by their child raising abilities, particularly in the early years. The Iranian delegate endorsed the secretariat's plan for helping members and associate members to reach their development goals and objectives.

  12. Population growth to put pressure on some food supplies.

    PubMed

    1997-01-01

    Continued high population growth in developing countries is likely to lead to intense pressure to produce more rice, according to estimates from the Manila-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Ms. Mercedita Sombilla, a research scientist with IRRI, said that the projected increase in Asia's population will be the major force in accelerating demand for rice. According to various issues of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet, the population of the region will have increased from 3.3 billion in 1995 to almost 4.6 billion in 2020. The greatest growth in demand is expected to come from the lower-income countries of Asia, such as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam, she said. However, in terms of overall food supplies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that food supplies will be sufficient. "Expecting reasonably strong productivity growth to be sustainable, no global food crisis seems likely to occur" between now and 2020, the organization stated in its report entitled "The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age". PMID:12321308

  13. Atmospheric methane isotopic record favors fossil sources flat in 1980s and 1990s with recent increase.

    PubMed

    Rice, Andrew L; Butenhoff, Christopher L; Teama, Doaa G; Röger, Florian H; Khalil, M Aslam K; Rasmussen, Reinhold A

    2016-09-27

    Observations of atmospheric methane (CH4) since the late 1970s and measurements of CH4 trapped in ice and snow reveal a meteoric rise in concentration during much of the twentieth century. Since 1750, levels of atmospheric CH4 have more than doubled to current globally averaged concentration near 1,800 ppb. During the late 1980s and 1990s, the CH4 growth rate slowed substantially and was near or at zero between 1999 and 2006. There is no scientific consensus on the drivers of this slowdown. Here, we report measurements of the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4 ((13)C/(12)C and D/H) from a rare air archive dating from 1977 to 1998. Together with more modern records of isotopic atmospheric CH4, we performed a time-dependent retrieval of methane fluxes spanning 25 y (1984-2009) using a 3D chemical transport model. This inversion results in a 24 [18, 27] Tg y(-1) CH4 increase in fugitive fossil fuel emissions since 1984 with most of this growth occurring after year 2000. This result is consistent with some bottom-up emissions inventories but not with recent estimates based on atmospheric ethane. In fact, when forced with decreasing emissions from fossil fuel sources our inversion estimates unreasonably high emissions in other sources. Further, the inversion estimates a decrease in biomass-burning emissions that could explain falling ethane abundance. A range of sensitivity tests suggests that these results are robust.

  14. Atmospheric methane isotopic record favors fossil sources flat in 1980s and 1990s with recent increase.

    PubMed

    Rice, Andrew L; Butenhoff, Christopher L; Teama, Doaa G; Röger, Florian H; Khalil, M Aslam K; Rasmussen, Reinhold A

    2016-09-27

    Observations of atmospheric methane (CH4) since the late 1970s and measurements of CH4 trapped in ice and snow reveal a meteoric rise in concentration during much of the twentieth century. Since 1750, levels of atmospheric CH4 have more than doubled to current globally averaged concentration near 1,800 ppb. During the late 1980s and 1990s, the CH4 growth rate slowed substantially and was near or at zero between 1999 and 2006. There is no scientific consensus on the drivers of this slowdown. Here, we report measurements of the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4 ((13)C/(12)C and D/H) from a rare air archive dating from 1977 to 1998. Together with more modern records of isotopic atmospheric CH4, we performed a time-dependent retrieval of methane fluxes spanning 25 y (1984-2009) using a 3D chemical transport model. This inversion results in a 24 [18, 27] Tg y(-1) CH4 increase in fugitive fossil fuel emissions since 1984 with most of this growth occurring after year 2000. This result is consistent with some bottom-up emissions inventories but not with recent estimates based on atmospheric ethane. In fact, when forced with decreasing emissions from fossil fuel sources our inversion estimates unreasonably high emissions in other sources. Further, the inversion estimates a decrease in biomass-burning emissions that could explain falling ethane abundance. A range of sensitivity tests suggests that these results are robust. PMID:27621453

  15. Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

    2016-08-01

    Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.

  16. Philippine laws, regulations back policy to contain population growth.

    PubMed

    1974-01-01

    A recent compilation of population related decrees promulgated since martial law was declared in the Philippines in 1972 indicates that the government may be designing a legal framework encouraging voluntary limitation of family size. The list which was published in an appendix to the 1974-1977 Population Program, reveals that population influencing policies dealing with taxation, maternity benefits, incentive schemes and provision of family planning services by employers are already in effect. Since 1972 tax relief has been restricted to 4 dependents. Paid maternity leave is limited to the first 4 deliveries. Firms with over 300 employees are required to set up family planning clinics, and smaller firms must have infirmary personnel who are trained and certified in the provision of family planning services. Also, the Department of Labor is encouraging employers to develop incentive programs that will encourage workers to use effective family planning methods. The latest population plan also gives top priority to research, calls for targeting information to labor leaders, engaged couples, and out of school youth, and proposes disseminating population and family planning information through residential cooperatives and grass roots organizations. The aim of the current plan is to reduce the birthrate to 35.9 per 100 and the population growth rate to 2.47% by the end of the 4 year period. It is projected that by 1977 58% of the eligible population will be practicing contraception. PMID:12276795

  17. Philippine laws, regulations back policy to contain population growth.

    PubMed

    1974-01-01

    A recent compilation of population related decrees promulgated since martial law was declared in the Philippines in 1972 indicates that the government may be designing a legal framework encouraging voluntary limitation of family size. The list which was published in an appendix to the 1974-1977 Population Program, reveals that population influencing policies dealing with taxation, maternity benefits, incentive schemes and provision of family planning services by employers are already in effect. Since 1972 tax relief has been restricted to 4 dependents. Paid maternity leave is limited to the first 4 deliveries. Firms with over 300 employees are required to set up family planning clinics, and smaller firms must have infirmary personnel who are trained and certified in the provision of family planning services. Also, the Department of Labor is encouraging employers to develop incentive programs that will encourage workers to use effective family planning methods. The latest population plan also gives top priority to research, calls for targeting information to labor leaders, engaged couples, and out of school youth, and proposes disseminating population and family planning information through residential cooperatives and grass roots organizations. The aim of the current plan is to reduce the birthrate to 35.9 per 100 and the population growth rate to 2.47% by the end of the 4 year period. It is projected that by 1977 58% of the eligible population will be practicing contraception.

  18. Linear age-dependent population growth with seasonal harvesting.

    PubMed

    Sánchez, D A

    1980-06-01

    A population growth is modelled by the Von Foerster PDE with accompanying Lotka-Volterra integral equation describing the birth rate; the age specific death and fertility rates are assumed to depend only on age and not time. A harvesting policy where a fraction of the population of age greater than a given age is harvested for a fraction of a given season. This introduces a time dependence, but this difficulty is circumvented by devising approximate time-independent models whose birthrates bracket the true birthrate--the standard renewal equation theory applies to the approximate models so quantitative results can be obtained.

  19. Factors associated with trends in infant and child mortality in developing countries during the 1990s.

    PubMed Central

    Rutstein, S. O.

    2000-01-01

    The 1990s have seen a remarkable decrease in mortality among infants and children in most developing countries. In some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, these declines in mortality among children have slowed and are now increasing again. Internationally comparable data derived from survey programmes, such as the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) programme, are available both to document the changes that have occurred in mortality and to provide insight into some of the factors that may explain these trends in mortality. The factors found in repeated DHS programmes that explain these trends fall into five categories: fertility behaviour; nutritional status, breastfeeding, and infant feeding; the use of health services by mothers and for children; environmental health conditions; and socioeconomic status. Both simple analyses and multivariate analyses of changes in these factors between surveys indicate that all factors affected the mortality trends. However, to explain trends in mortality, the variables themselves had to have changed over time. During the 1990s fertility behaviour, breastfeeding, and infant feeding have changed less than other factors and so would seem to have played a smaller role in mortality trends. This study confirms that trends in mortality during the 1990s were related to more than just a handful of variables. It would, therefore, be a mistake to concentrate policy actions on one or a few of these while forsaking others. Countries with the largest decreases in mortality have had substantial improvements in most of the factors that might be used to explain these changes. In some countries mortality has risen. In part these increases can be explained by the factors included in this study, such as deterioration in seeking medical care for children with fever. Other factors that were not measured, such as the increasing resistance of malaria to drug treatment and the increased prevalence of parental HIV/AIDS, may be contributing

  20. Seed limitation restricts population growth in shaded populations of a perennial woodland orchid.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein; Jongejans, Eelke

    2010-01-01

    Seed production and seedling recruitment are thought to be of minor importance in determining population dynamics and long-term viability in long-lived perennial plants. Seed addition experiments, on the other hand, have amply shown that supplemental addition of seeds almost always, irrespective of longevity, results in increased seedling recruitment. Any change in the environment that affects fruit and seed production can thus be expected to affect seedling recruitment, but the extent to which increased fruit and seed production affect overall population dynamics remains relatively unknown. In this paper, we present demographic data of six populations of the long-lived woodland orchid Orchis purpurea that were monitored for seven consecutive years (2002-2008) occurring in two contrasting light environments. We use a nested life table response experiment (LTRE) at the vital rate level to disentangle the relative contributions of each of six annual transitions, six sites, and two light environments on the population dynamics of this species and to determine vital rate variations that contributed most to variation in population growth rate. Population growth rates (lamda) were significantly higher in the light environment than in the shaded environment (average lamda = 0.9930 and 1.0492 in the shaded and light environment, respectively). The LTRE analysis showed that variation in fecundity and, to a lesser extent, variation in growth made the largest total contributions to variation in lamda, whereas the contributions of variation in survival were almost negligible. Fruit production was two times larger and the net reproductive rate (R0) was approximately six times higher in the light environment than in shaded areas, suggesting that variables related to reproduction are the key drivers of population dynamics of this long-lived orchid species in different light environments. Our results indicate that light is an important factor affecting population dynamics of

  1. How have hospitals faced the pricing issues of the 1990's?

    PubMed

    Kleimenhagen, A; Naidu, G M; Pillari, G D

    1994-01-01

    National health care expenditures are rising rapidly, bringing on a health care financing crisis. For this reason, it is useful to see how hospitals are facing the price issues of the 1990's. This study examines the price strategies hospitals follow and analyzes their observations on price sensitivity and payer mix. The results clearly show that hospitals have not given much attention to the pricing variable. The study suggests that marketing and finance will have to work closely together in developing future pricing strategies. PMID:10137167

  2. Solid earth science in the 1990s. Volume 1: Program plan

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    This is volume one of a three volume series. A plan for solid earth science research for the next decade is outlined. The following topics are addressed: scientific requirements; status of current research; major new emphasis in the 1990's; interagency and international participation; and the program implementation plan. The following fields are represented: plate motion and deformation; lithospheric structure and evolution; volcanology; land surface (processes of change); earth structure and dynamics; earth rotation and reference frames; and geopotential fields. Other topics of discussion include remote sensing, space missions, and space techniques.

  3. Solid Earth science in the 1990s. Volume 3: Measurement techniques and technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Reports are contained from the NASA Workshop on Solid Earth Science in the 1990s. The techniques and technologies needed to address the program objectives are discussed. The Measurement Technique and Technology Panel identified (1) candidate measurement systems for each of the measurements required for the Solid Earth Science Program that would fall under the NASA purview; (2) the capabilities and limitations of each technique; and (3) the developments necessary for each technique to meet the science panel requirements. In nearly all cases, current technology or a development path with existing technology was identified as capable of meeting the requirements of the science panels. These technologies and development paths are discussed.

  4. Lunar and interplanetary explorations by electric propulsions in the 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toki, Kyoichiro; Kuninaka, Hitoshi; Ishii, Nobuaki; Kawaguchi, Jun'ichiro

    Japan's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science has undertaken an evaluation of electric (rather than chemically-fueled) propulsion systems for lunar and planetary missions in the 1990s. A lunar-penetrator and a Venus orbiter mission are taken as baselines against which to determine the characteristics and evaluate the implementation constraints of realistic electrically propelled vehicles. Attention is given to dc arcjet thrusters. It is suggested that solar cell output should be shared through the spacecraft power bus rather than dedicated to propulsion.

  5. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    PubMed

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  6. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    PubMed

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  7. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    PubMed

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  8. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    PubMed

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  9. Growth rates in a captive population of Tonkean macaques.

    PubMed

    Sanna, Andrea; De Marco, Arianna; Thierry, Bernard; Cozzolino, Roberto

    2015-07-01

    Measuring variations in body mass is necessary to gain a deeper understanding of the evolution of life-history patterns, and it provides information on the timing of sexual maturity and the development of sexual dimorphism. In this study, we collected longitudinal data on body mass from infancy to adulthood in a captive population of Tonkean macaques (Macaca tonkeana). Tests to evaluate whether social group, maternal age, and dominance rank influenced growth rates showed that they had no significant effect. We investigated the timing and magnitude of breaking points in the growth paths of males and females, and checked whether these breaking points could correspond to specific reproductive and morphological developmental events. We found that male and female Tonkean macaques have roughly equivalent body masses until around the age of four, when males go through an adolescent growth spurt and females continue to grow at a constant rate. Males not only grow faster than females, but they also continue to grow for nearly one and a half years after females have attained their full body mass. Growth rate differences account for approximately two-thirds of the body mass sexual dimorphism; only the remaining third results from continued male growth beyond the age where full body mass is reached in females. We also discovered remarkable correspondences between the timing of testicular enlargement and the adolescent growth spurt in males, and between dental development and slowdown breaking points in both sexes.

  10. Sweden Faces Zero Population Growth. Population Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 2, June, 1980.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gendell, Murray

    This bulletin examines the causes of the fertility decline in Sweden and the concerns and ambivalence of Swedes about zero population growth (ZPG). The fertility decline is attributed to many causes. In recent years there has been a drop in marriage rates and a sharp increase in non-marital cohabitation. The decline is also related to the…

  11. Minimal models of growth and decline of microbial populations.

    PubMed

    Juška, Alfonsas

    2011-01-21

    Dynamics of growth and decline of microbial populations were analysed and respective models were developed in this investigation. Analysis of the dynamics was based on general considerations concerning the main properties of microorganisms and their interactions with the environment which was supposed to be affected by the activity of the population. Those considerations were expressed mathematically by differential equations or systems of the equations containing minimal sets of parameters characterizing those properties. It has been found that: (1) the factors leading to the decline of the population have to be considered separately, namely, accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium and the exhaustion of resources; the latter have to be separated again into renewable ('building materials') and non-renewable (sources of energy); (2) decline of the population is caused by the exhaustion of sources of energy but no decline is predicted by the model because of the exhaustion of renewable resources; (3) the model determined by the accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium does not suggest the existence of a separate 'stationary phase'; (4) in the model determined by the exhaustion of energy resources the 'stationary' and 'decline' phases are quite discernible; and (5) there is no symmetry in microbial population dynamics, the decline being slower than the rise. Mathematical models are expected to be useful in getting insight into the process of control of the dynamics of microbial populations. The models are in agreement with the experimental data. PMID:21036180

  12. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  13. Study of a tracking and data acquisition system for the 1990's. Volume 1: User community characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccreary, T.

    1981-01-01

    Projected 1990's experiments; navigation requirements and potentials; communications requirements associated with space experiments; alternative forecast options; and operational impacts on experiments are covered. A baseline of plans for the TDAS User Community, including a set of generic experiments developed to supplement existing planning for the 1990's time frame is generated. It includes extensive summaries of collected data, and a bibliography. The data are representative of inputs obtained from NASA planning sources through September 1981.

  14. Adequacy of dietary intakes and poverty in India: trends in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Mahal, Ajay; Karan, Anup K

    2008-03-01

    Linear programming methods, indicators of nutritional adequacy from the Indian Council of Medical Research and household expenditure survey data from the National Sample Survey Organization were used to construct poverty lines for India. Poverty ratios were calculated for 1993--1994 and 1999--2000 on the basis of nutritional adequacy poverty lines and compared to official estimates of poverty based on energy requirements. Nutritional adequacy poverty lines are higher than official poverty lines, particularly in rural areas. The application of nutritional adequacy poverty lines points to greater rural-urban poverty differences than in official estimates. Declines in rural poverty during the 1990s were also slower under the nutritional adequacy definition, especially in south India. There is a greater degree of rural-urban and regional bias in nutritional adequacy poverty reduction than suggested by official data. Inter-state variations in changes in nutritional poverty and official poverty in the 1990s are largely explained by differences in assumptions on overall price movements. However, relative price movements in food items also played a role, particularly the slow increase in prices of cereals and edible oils in comparison to the prices of pulses, and in some southern states, compared to milk and vegetable prices as well.

  15. Alternative agendas. System priorities for the 1990s will differ from those of the last decade.

    PubMed

    Coyle, M; Koebel, C

    1990-12-01

    The Sisters of Charity Health Care Systems (SCHCS) was established in 1979 in response to changes in the U.S. healthcare system and to new needs of sponsors and Catholic healthcare facilities. However, the agenda that SCHCS leaders (and leaders of other systems) set at that time must now give way to an agenda that will address the new challenges and responsibilities facing the Catholic healthcare ministry in the 1990s. In its first decade of existence, SCHCS established and fulfilled a number of goals: It strengthened governance relationships, helped systems and sponsors better identify with local communities, enabled facilities to steward resources more effectively, and facilitated members' understanding of mission and sponsorship values. In the 1990s, however, systems will have to create more opportunities for regional, collaborative, and networking relationships among member facilities and between members and non-members. To achieve this, they will have to reevaluate their structures, find ways to faciliatate collaboration, make resources available to institutions outside the system, and develop an overall philosophy that enhances both the fiscal and spiritual well-being of member facilities.

  16. What is Growth? Concurrent determination of a bacterial population's many shades of growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lambert, Guillaume; Kussell, Edo

    2013-03-01

    One of the most exciting developments in the study of the physics of microbial life is the ability to precisely monitor stochastic variations of gene expression in individual cells. A fundamental question is whether these variations improve the long-term ability of a population to adapt to new environments. While variations in gene expression in bacteria are easily measured through the use of reporter systems such as green fluorescent proteins and its variants, precise determination of a cell's growth rate, and how it is influenced by its immediate environment, remains challenging. Here, we show that many conflicting and ambiguous definitions of bacterial growth can actually be used interchangeably in E. coli. Indeed, by monitoring small populations of E. coli bacteria inside a microfluidic device, we show that seemingly independent measurements of growth (elongation rate and the average division time, for instance) agree very precisely with one another. We combine these definitions with the population's length and age distribution to very precisely quantify the influence of temperature variations on a population's growth rate. We conclude by using coalescence theory to describe the evolution of a population's genetic structure over time.

  17. Interspecific synchrony of seabird population growth rate and breeding success

    PubMed Central

    Robinson, James P W; Dornelas, Maria; Ojanguren, Alfredo F

    2013-01-01

    Environmental variability can destabilize communities by causing correlated interspecific fluctuations that weaken the portfolio effect, yet evidence of such a mechanism is rare in natural systems. Here, we ask whether the population dynamics of similar sympatric species of a seabird breeding community are synchronized, and if these species have similar exceptional responses to environmental variation. We used a 24-year time series of the breeding success and population growth rate of a marine top predator species group to assess the degree of synchrony between species demography. We then developed a novel method to examine the species group – all species combined – response to environmental variability, in particular, whether multiple species experience similar, pronounced fluctuations in their demography. Multiple species were positively correlated in breeding success and growth rate. Evidence of “exceptional” years was found, where the species group experienced pronounced fluctuations in their demography. The synchronous response of the species group was negatively correlated with winter sea surface temperature of the preceding year for both growth rate and breeding success. We present evidence for synchronous, exceptional responses of a species group that are driven by environmental variation. Such species covariation destabilizes communities by reducing the portfolio effect, and such exceptional responses may increase the risk of a state change in this community. Our understanding of the future responses to environmental change requires an increased focus on the short-term fluctuations in demography that are driven by extreme environmental variability. PMID:23919147

  18. Population growth and poverty in the developing world.

    PubMed

    Birdsall, N

    1980-12-01

    The links between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty currently affecting 780 million people in the developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) were examined. Absolute poverty is defined as having less than the income necessary to ensure a daily diet of 2150 calories per person ($200 per person a year in 1970 United States dollars). Focus is on poverty and demography in the developing world (defining poverty; income, fertility and life expectancy; demographic change and poverty), effect of poverty on fertility, family planning programs and the poor, and the outlook for the future. Rapid population growth stretches both national and family budgets thin with the increasing numbers of children to be fed and educated and workers to be provided with jobs. Slower per capita income growth, lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and more poverty are the probable consequences. Many characteristics of poverty can cause high fertility -- high infant mortality, lack of education for women in particular, too little family income to invest in children, inequitable shares in national income, and the inaccessibility of family planning. Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba and Costa Rica demonstrate that birthrates can decline rapidly in low income groups and countries when basic health care, education, and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available. PMID:12262264

  19. Population growth and United States politics in the 1970s.

    PubMed

    Nash, A E

    1973-01-01

    The 2 themes of this century, increasing environmental fragility and increasing human demands on government, are underlined by the failure of government to effectively govern, and the complex technology and modern communication systems which further divide the developing nations from the developed ones. Population stabilization may help relieve the tension between increasing expectation from government and the fiscal bind in 3 ways: 1)a higher per capita income would increase per capita government revenue which would have a better chance of meeting citizen expectations, 2)a moderately redistributive effect on personal income might occur by decreasing unwanted fertility through the dynamics of economics and increasing the role of government in elevating living standards, and 3)with reduction of government expenditure per capita, the cost of providing any given level of service would decrease. The nuclear age has altered the concept of what constitutes national security. Rapid population growth in the developing countries is also significant, and the United States economy depends on overseas investment. A constructive foreign policy, as opposed to neoimperialism or isolationism, is recommended to help influence world population growth. PMID:4788263

  20. Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

    PubMed

    Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

    2008-05-01

    The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations.

  1. Modelling population growth with delayed nonlocal reaction in 2-dimensions.

    PubMed

    Liang, Dong; Wu, Jianhong; Zhang, Fan

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the population growth of a single species living in a two-dimensional spatial domain. New reaction-difusion equation models with delayed nonlocal reaction are developed in two-dimensional bounded domains combining diferent boundary conditions. The important feature of the models is the reflection of the joint efect of the difusion dynamics and the nonlocal maturation delayed efect. We consider and ana- lyze numerical solutions of the mature population dynamics with some wellknown birth functions. In particular, we observe and study the occurrences of asymptotically stable steady state solutions and periodic waves for the two-dimensional problems with nonlocal delayed reaction. We also investigate numerically the efects of various parameters on the period, the peak and the shape of the periodic wave as well as the shape of the asymptotically stable steady state solution.

  2. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  3. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    PubMed

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

  4. Herbivory: effects on plant abundance, distribution and population growth

    PubMed Central

    Maron, John L; Crone, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    Plants are attacked by many different consumers. A critical question is how often, and under what conditions, common reductions in growth, fecundity or even survival that occur due to herbivory translate to meaningful impacts on abundance, distribution or dynamics of plant populations. Here, we review population-level studies of the effects of consumers on plant dynamics and evaluate: (i) whether particular consumers have predictably more or less influence on plant abundance, (ii) whether particular plant life-history types are predictably more vulnerable to herbivory at the population level, (iii) whether the strength of plant–consumer interactions shifts predictably across environmental gradients and (iv) the role of consumers in influencing plant distributional limits. Existing studies demonstrate numerous examples of consumers limiting local plant abundance and distribution. We found larger effects of consumers on grassland than woodland forbs, stronger effects of herbivory in areas with high versus low disturbance, but no systematic or unambiguous differences in the impact of consumers based on plant life-history or herbivore feeding mode. However, our ability to evaluate these and other patterns is limited by the small (but growing) number of studies in this area. As an impetus for further study, we review strengths and challenges of population-level studies, such as interpreting net impacts of consumers in the presence of density dependence and seed bank dynamics. PMID:17002942

  5. Population growth and land use in Nepal: "the great turnabout".

    PubMed

    Hrabovszky, J P; Miyan, K

    1987-08-01

    Historically, Nepal has demonstrated a "great turnabout" trend, in which initial immigration from the lowland areas to the mountains has been replaced by accelerating migration from the hills to the plains. The reason for this reversal has been a rapid growth in population within the confines of limited availability of potentially cultivable land. Given Nepal's slow economic development, the overwhelming majority of increases in population have to be accommodated within the agricultural sector, on which 83% of Nepal's households are dependent. Fundamental land use issues in Nepal include rapid achievement of the final limit of land suitability for cultivation and the speed at which land can be brought into cultivation. The Government of Nepal has developed the objectives of increased food production to provide a satisfactory diet for the population, increased per capita income, improved regional balance in income and development, conservation of natural resources such as land and forests, and overall development of the economy through income generation, export earnings, and release of agricultural labor to other sectors. 3 perspective studies have identified a number of policies and programs that could bring Nepal closer to these goals. These studies analyzed potential land use development, agricultural production, and food availability by the year 2005. Most essential is the need to intensify land use not only in crop agriculture, but also grasslands and forest use. Land must be allocated to uses that represent the most productive use of that land without being degrading. Technologies are available for land use in each of the main types of uses--crop agriculture, livestock, and forests--that can provide protection against land degradation. Finally, irrigation is a key element in raising agricultural output. Close cooperation between the government and the people is crucial for the success of the task of finding a balance between population growth and its demand

  6. Enforcement in the 1990's project: Recommendations of the analytical work groups

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-10-01

    Enforcement has re-emerged as a leading tool of environmental policy in recent years. In the Fall of 1989, the Agency's Enforcement Management Council undertook to develop specific ideas for improving the enforcement process, with particular emphasis upon strengthening the intergovernmental relationship and reviewing the EPA enforcement management systems to better assess the environmental impact of the enforcement program. In order to capture a wide range of experiences and perspectives, the Council surveyed approximately 50 environmental officials inside and outside of the Agency. In addition to the two subjects identified initially, the interviewees solicited their opinions about other enforcement issues that warranted analysis. Ultimately, the Council identified the six discrete enforcement topics which are addressed in the workgroup reports of the Enforcement in the 1990's Project.

  7. The practice of infectious diseases in the 1990s: the Canadian experience.

    PubMed

    Schlech, W F

    1995-02-01

    A survey of the members of the Canadian Infectious Disease Society was carried out to determine the content of an infectious diseases consultative practice in the 1990s. Respondents were asked to identify all new inpatient, outpatient, and telephone consultations during a 1-week period in 1990. Consultations were categorized by the infectious disease syndrome of the patient and by the microorganism that was identified. Bacterial infections were the most common cause of inpatient consultations, while viral infections were more common in outpatients. Consultations for parasitic infections were primarily for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia related to infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). "Newer" infectious disease syndromes such as chronic fatigue syndrome, toxic shock syndrome, and Lyme disease were all represented in the responses for the 1-week study period. The significant impact of HIV infection on the overall consultative load suggests that there will be a continuing need for newly trained infectious disease consultants into the 21st century.

  8. Clinical technology assessment, cost-effective adoption, and quality management by hospitals in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Veluchamy, S; Saver, C L

    1990-06-01

    Technology assessment in the 1990s must become an integral part of a hospital's strategic priority goals, with active participation of physicians and top management. Technology assessment should involve a wide range of criteria and health care consumer expectations, so that the appropriateness, effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and quality improvement aspects of new technologies are all considered. Mount Carmel Health's Advanced Treatment and Bionics Institute (ATBI), established in 1986, monitors significant developments in new technologies and performs technology and outcomes assessments. ATBI activities, which have facilitated adoption of 35 treatment-based projects, are integrated into the existing QA structure of Mount Carmel hospitals. Through resolution of identified problems, quality care can be promoted, while providing patients innovative medical treatments.

  9. Aeronautical research in the United States - Challenges for the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petersen, Richard H.; Holmes, Bruce J.

    1990-01-01

    An overview is presented of NASA R&D initiatives in air transportation technologies that will dominate its efforts through the 1990s. These efforts are to be concentrated in (1) advanced subsonic transports with greater fuel economy, passenger capacity, and control effectiveness, whose design will be undertaken with state-of-the-art CFD and CAD/CAM systems; (2) a second-generation SST whose propulsion system will be substantially more fuel-efficient than that of Concorde and have far lower atmospheric emissions; and (3) a hypersonic transport predicated on the results of research into materials, cryogenic fuels, propulsion cycles, and propulsion/airframe aerodynamics integration, which will be undertaken in connection with the X-30 testbed.

  10. The NASA cosmic ray program for the 1990's and beyond

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahlen, S. P.; Binns, W. R.; Cherry, M. L.; Gaisser, T. K.; Jones, W. V.; Ling, J. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Muller, D.; Ormes, J. O.; Ramaty, R.

    1990-01-01

    The interim report of the 1989 NASA Cosmic Ray Program Working Group is presented. The report summarizes the cosmic ray program for the 1990's, including the recently approved ACE, Astromag, HNC, POEMS, and SAMPEX missions, as well as other key elements of the program. New science themes and candidate missions are identified for the first part of the 21st century, including objectives that might be addressed as part of the Human Exploration Initiative. Among the suggested new thrusts for the 21st century are: an Interstellar Probe into the nearby interstellar medium; a Lunar-Based Calorimeter to measure the cosmic ray composition near 10 exp 16 eV; high-precision element and isotope spectroscopy of ultraheavy elements; and new, more sensitive studies of impulsive solar flare events.

  11. A data distribution strategy for the 1990s (files are not enough)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tankenson, Mike; Wright, Steven

    1993-01-01

    Virtually all of the data distribution strategies being contemplated for the EOSDIS era revolve around the use of files. Most, if not all, mass storage technologies are based around the file model. However, files may be the wrong primary abstraction for supporting scientific users in the 1990s and beyond. Other abstractions more closely matching the respective scientific discipline of the end user may be more appropriate. JPL has built a unique multimission data distribution system based on a strategy of telemetry stream emulation to match the responsibilities of spacecraft team and ground data system operators supporting our nations suite of planetary probes. The current system, operational since 1989 and the launch of the Magellan spacecraft, is supporting over 200 users at 15 remote sites. This stream-oriented data distribution model can provide important lessons learned to builders of future data systems.

  12. Halo-orbit and lunar-swingby missions of the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farquhar, Robert W.

    1990-01-01

    A significant number of spacecraft are planning to use halo orbits and lunar-swingby trajectories in the next decade. Four spacecraft will be placed into halo orbits around the earth's sunward libration point, while two others will be stationed near the sun-earth L2 libration point in the distant geomagnetic tail. Six spacecraft, including two of the aforementioned halo orbiters, will make use of lunar-swingby maneuvers to fulfill their mission objectives. Thus, a total of ten spacecraft, five from the Soviet Union, two from Japan, two from the United States, and one from the European Space Agency, will employ halo orbits and/or lunar-swingby trajectories in the 1990's. Pertinent facts are presented for each of these missions.

  13. Tracking and data acquisition system for the 1990's. Volume 7: TDAS space technology assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khatri, R.

    1983-01-01

    The results of the TDAS and user spacecraft technology assessment effort are provided. For each TDAS Satellite enhancement and user spacecraft element previously enumerated, the technology issues are identified and the R&D needed to resolve these issues is delineated. Subsequently, taking into account developments taking place elsewhere, the addition unique TDAS satellite module and user spacecraft element R&D efforts needed are identified, and conclusions are drawn in each case. From these conclusions, it is evident that with additional unique R&D efforts carried out for TDAS and appropriate user spacecraft elements the desired TDAS' capabilities for the 1990's can be realized and user spacecraft can be implemented that adequately interface with the projected TDAS.

  14. Regime shift of the South China Sea SST in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Bijoy; Tkalich, Pavel; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2016-05-01

    Decadal variability of the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) during 1982-2014 is investigated using observations and ocean reanalysis datasets. The SCS SST shows an abrupt transition from a cold-to-warm regime in the late 1990s. Based on the long-term SST variability two epochs are defined, 1982-1996 and 2000-2014 as cold and warm regimes respectively, spanning on either side of the 1997-1999 SCS warming. Despite the occurrence of strong El Nino induced warming events, the SST anomalies tend to be negative in the cold regime. Conversely during the warm regime, the positive SST anomalies have dominated over the La Nina driven cooling events. The cold (warm) SST regime is marked by net heat gain (loss) by the SCS. The long-term variations of net surface heat flux are mainly driven by the latent heat flux anomalies while the short wave flux plays a secondary role. Low-frequency variability of the South China Sea throughflow (SCSTF) appears to be closely related to the SCS SST regime shift. The SCSTF shows reversing trends during the cold and warm epochs. The weakened SCSTF in the warm regime has promoted the SCS warming by limiting the outward flow of warm water from the SCS. Meanwhile, enhanced SCSTF during the cold regime acts as a cooling mechanism and lead to persistent negative SST anomalies. The change in trend of the SCSTF and SST regime shift coincides with the switching of pacific decadal oscillation from a warm to cold phase in the late 1990s.

  15. A new paradigm for the predominance of standing Central Pacific Warming after the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, Baoqiang; Wang, Bin; Li, Tim

    2013-07-01

    Canonical El Niño has a warming center in the eastern Pacific (EP), but in recent decades, El Niño warming center tends to occur more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). The definitions and names of this new type of El Niño, however, have been notoriously diverse, which makes it difficult to understand why the warming center shifts. Here, we show that the new type of El Niño events is characterized by: 1) the maximum warming standing and persisting in the CP and 2) the warming extending to the EP only briefly during its peak phase. For this reason, we refer to it as standing CP warming (CPW). Global warming has been blamed for the westward shift of maximum warming as well as more frequent occurrence of CPW. However, we find that since the late 1990s the standing CPW becomes a dominant mode in the Pacific; meanwhile, the epochal mean trade winds have strengthened and the equatorial thermocline slope has increased, contrary to the global warming-induced weakening trades and flattening thermocline. We propose that the recent predominance of standing CPW arises from a dramatic decadal change characterized by a grand La Niña-like background pattern and strong divergence in the CP atmospheric boundary layer. After the late 1990s, the anomalous mean CP wind divergence tends to weaken the anomalous convection and shift it westward from the underlying SST warming due to the suppressed low- level convergence feedback. This leads to a westward shift of anomalous westerly response and thus a zonally in-phase SST tendency, preventing eastward propagation of the SST anomaly. We anticipate more CPW events will occur in the coming decade provided the grand La Niña-like background state persists.

  16. Tobacco lobby political influence on US state legislatures in the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Givel, M.; Glantz, S.

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND—Throughout the 1990s the tobacco lobby was a potent political force in US state legislatures advancing its pro-tobacco agenda.
OBJECTIVE—To describe the market and political motivations of the tobacco lobby and the strategies they use to achieve these goals in US state legislatures.
DESIGN—This study is a content analysis and summary overview of recently released historical tobacco industry documents; tobacco related government documents; and recent state tobacco control policy reports.
RESULTS—In the 1990s, the tobacco lobby engaged in a comprehensive and aggressive political effort in state legislatures to sell tobacco with the least hindrance using lobbying, the media, public relations, front groups, industry allies, and contributions to legislators. These efforts included campaigns to neutralise clean indoor air legislation, minimise tax increases, and preserve the industry's freedom to advertise and sell tobacco. The tobacco lobby succeeded in increasing the number of states that enacted state pre-emption of stricter local tobacco control laws and prevented the passage of many state tobacco control policies. Public health advocates were able to prevent pre-emption and other pro-tobacco policies from being enacted in several states.
CONCLUSIONS—The tobacco lobby is a powerful presence in state legislatures. Because of the poor public image of the tobacco lobby, it seeks to wield this power quietly and behind the scenes. State and local health advocates, who often have high public credibility, can use this fact against the tobacco lobby by focusing public attention on the tobacco lobby's political influence and policy goals and expose links between the tobacco lobby and its legislative supporters.


Keywords: political lobbying; state legislatures; industry PMID:11387532

  17. [Global population growth and the environment: a review of the issues].

    PubMed

    Legrand, T

    1998-01-01

    "This article reviews the hypothesized effects of global population growth on the environment and considers their policy implications." The focus is on the ethical considerations of population growth; the complexity of environmental processes; the concentration of adverse effects of population growth on renewable, rather than nonrenewable, resources; the need for noncoercive efforts to slow population growth; and the impact of difficult-to-resolve political and administrative problems. (EXCERPT)

  18. [Global population growth and the environment: a review of the issues].

    PubMed

    Legrand, T

    1998-01-01

    "This article reviews the hypothesized effects of global population growth on the environment and considers their policy implications." The focus is on the ethical considerations of population growth; the complexity of environmental processes; the concentration of adverse effects of population growth on renewable, rather than nonrenewable, resources; the need for noncoercive efforts to slow population growth; and the impact of difficult-to-resolve political and administrative problems. (EXCERPT) PMID:12295168

  19. [The effect of population growth on the economic development of Japan].

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, M

    1985-05-01

    The author reviews research supporting and opposing the Malthusian view that the effect of population growth on per capita income in Japan has been negative. Distinguishing between total population growth and the growth of the labor force, the author finds that "over the total period (1880-1970) population cum labor growth on average tended to make a positive contribution to per capita income growth." (summary in ENG)

  20. Development Planning and Population Growth and Redistribution in the Republic of Iraq.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    El Attar, M. E.; Salman, A. D.

    Utilizing the 1947, 1957, and l965 census data and the 1970 preliminary population count, the relationship between population growth and redistribution and development planning in Iraq was examined. Trends in rural-urban population growth, migration, and population redistribution were examined as they pertained to the socioeconomic development…

  1. The spatio-temporal dynamic pattern of rural residential land in China in the 1990s using Landsat TM images and GIS.

    PubMed

    Tian, Guangjin; Yang, Zhifeng; Zhang, Yaoqi

    2007-11-01

    Through interpreting Landsat TM images, this study analyzes the spatial distribution of rural settlements in China in 2000. It calculates rural residential land percentage for every 1-km(2) cell. The entire country is divided into 33 regions to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamic patterns of rural residential land during the 1990s. According to the remote sensing survey, the rural residential land increased by 7.88 x 10(5) ha in the 1990s. The increment of rural residential land was 0.55 million ha in 1990-1995 and 0.23 million ha in 1995-2000. In 1990-1995, rural residential land increased dramatically in the eastern regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and North China Plain, accounting for 80.80% of the national growth; the expansion in the western regions was much more moderate. In 1995-2000, the expansion of rural residential land in eastern regions slowed, accounting for only 58.54% of the increase at the national level, whereas the expansion in the western regions accelerated. Rapid rural residential development resulted from increasing home construction and the limited control on rural land. The great regional disparity reflected the regional economic development and land-use policy change. Our finding shows that nearly 60% of the rural residential area came from cropland.

  2. Children of divorce in the 1990s: an update of the Amato and Keith (1991) meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Amato, P R

    2001-09-01

    The present study updates the P. R. Amato and B. Keith (1991) meta-analysis of children and divorce with a new analysis of 67 studies published in the 1990s. Compared with children with continuously married parents, children with divorced parents continued to score significantly lower on measures of academic achievement, conduct, psychological adjustment, self-concept, and social relations. After controlling for study characteristics, curvilinear trends with respect to decade of publication were present for academic achievement, psychological well-being, self-concept, and social relations. For these outcomes, the gap between children with divorced and married parents decreased during the 1980s and increased again during the 1990s.

  3. Tobacco Institute lobbying at the state and local levels of government in the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Morley, C; Cummings, K; Hyland, A; Giovino, G; Horan, J

    2002-01-01

    Independent variable: Data for this study came from the TI's State Activities Division (SAD) annual budgets for the years 1991-97, excluding 1993. These data include budgetary information pertaining to state and local lobbying activity and special projects reported by state. Dependent variables: The following measures of state tobacco control activity during the period 1991 to 1997 were considered: (1) American Stop Smoking Intervention Study (ASSIST) funding; (2) voter initiatives to raise cigarette taxes; (3) cigarette excise tax level; (4) workplace smoking restrictions; (5) the intensification of smoke-free air laws covering private worksites, government worksites, and restaurants; (6) the intensification of strength of sales to minors laws; (7) the intensification of strength of laws that punish minors for possessing, purchasing, and/or using cigarettes; (8) state status as a major grower of tobacco; (9) partisan control of state government, 1996; and (10) an overall composite index reflecting a state's strength of tobacco control, combining cigarette prices with workplace and home smoking bans. Results: The overall annual budget for the TI declined steadily during the 1990s, from $47.7 million in 1991 to $28.1 million by 1996. The proportion of the TI's budget allocated to the SAD remained relatively stable at about 30%. TI expenditures for lobbyists were highest in California where tobacco control activity has been strong for the past decade. We found significant associations between TI SAD expenditures and cigarette excise tax levels, the status of a state as a recipient of federal ASSIST funds, and changes in the strength of statewide laws that penalise minors for possessing, purchasing, and/or using cigarettes. We found little or no association between state and local lobbying budgets of the TI and changes in statewide smoke-free air laws, although we did find evidence of TI special project expenditures earmarked to specific states and localities to

  4. Will there be a 14C minimum in the tropical Pacific in the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Toggweiler, J.R. )

    1990-01-09

    14C distributions measured during GEOSECS showed large minima in bomb 14C levels in the tropical belts of the major ocean basins. Broecker et al. (1978, JGR, 83) attributed the minima to upwelling of deep water which was free of bomb 14C. Wyrtki (1981, JPO, 11) countered that heat budgets constrain the water upwelling the the equator to be from the upper themocline. Druffel (1987, JMR, 45) built a model of the Pacific upwelling system incorporating Wyrtki's description of the upwelling system. Druffel showed that the GEOSECS 14C minimum could be reproduced with upwelled upper thermocline water because bomb 14C levels were still relatively low in the tropical thermocline at the time of GEOSECS. Druffel went on to predict that mid latitude and tropical surface 14C levels would approach a common value before the 1990s and upper thermocline water masses acquired more bomb 14C and atmospheric 14C levels declined. By studying pre-bomb coral 14C records and a model simulation in Toggweiler et al. (1989, JGR, 94), I have found confirmation that some older and colder water upwells in the tropical Pacific. Upper thermocline (22-24C) water has about the same pre-bomb 14C content as pre-bomb surface waters and cannot generate a low 14C singal prior to the bomb test. The appearance of the oldest upwelled water in the coral data is correlated in time with the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. Most of the low 14C water moves southward into the South Pacific. I will argue that intensified upwelling during the cold phase of ENSO pulls up 12-14C water from the lower layers of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Upwelling from this layer may represent an important closure mechanism for mode waters formed in the subantarctic. A source of older water makes it certain that the tropical 14C minimum will persist through the 1990s and the remainder of the post-bomb era.

  5. Density but not climate affects the population growth rate of guanacos ( Lama guanicoe) (Artiodactyla, Camelidae)

    PubMed Central

    Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed the effects of population density and climatic variables on the rate of population growth in the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe), a wild camelid species in South America. We used a time series of 36 years (1977-2012) of population sampling in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Individuals were grouped in three age-classes: newborns, juveniles, and adults; for each year a female population transition matrix was constructed, and the population growth rate (λ) was estimated for each year as the matrix highest positive eigenvalue. We applied a regression analysis with finite population growth rate (λ) as dependent variable, and total guanaco population, sheep population, annual mean precipitation, and winter mean temperature as independent variables, with and without time lags. The effect of guanaco population size was statistically significant, but the effects of the sheep population and the climatic variables on guanaco population growth rate were not statistically significant. PMID:25187878

  6. Temporal evolution of the anthropogenic CO2 and acidification of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savy, J.-P.; Yao, K. M.; Touratier, F.; Goyet, C.

    2012-04-01

    Since the beginning of the industrial era, humankind consumption of fossil fuels at increasing rates has led to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by approximately 105 ppm. In the same time, the Mediterranean coastal regions experienced a brutal population growth, from 94 million habitants in 1950 to 274 million in 2000, generating a strong anthropogenic pressure on the Mediterranean marine ecosystems. To follow the man-induced changes on the Mediterranean carbonate system properties (pH; total alkalinity, AT; total inorganic carbon CT, and CO2 partial pressure, pCO2), an entire body-research has recently emerged in order to quantify both the present and future penetration of anthropogenic carbon (CANT) in the Mediterranean Sea and the inferred acidification of its waters. From monthly observations accumulated over more than a decade (from 1993 to 2005) at DYFAMED time-series station (DYnamique des Flux Atmosphériques en MEDiterranée) located in the central part of the Ligurian Sea, Touratier and Goyet (2009) have estimated the temporal evolution of CANT of the western Mediterranean Sea. This study highlights that concentrations of anthropogenic CO2 are much higher at DYFAMED site (> 50 mol.kg-1) than those found in the Atlantic Ocean. Our study, conducted with measurements performed at 10 meters depth from 1995 to 2011 at the same location, allowed us to investigate the temporal evolution of CANT into the upper seawater layer. Our results indicate an averaged annual CANT increase of 3 µmol.kg-1 and a linked pH drop of 0.0032 per year confirming the ongoing acidification of the Mediterranean water masses. These results suggest the vulnerability and the endangerment of the Mediterranean ecosystems by the massive human-induced CO2 emissions. Touratier F. and C. Goyet (2009). Decadal evolution of anthropogenic CO2 in the north western Mediterranean Sea (at the Dyfamed site) from the mid-1990's to the mid-2000's. Deep Sea Research Part I, 56, 1708-1716

  7. Pitcairn Island: fertility and population growth, 1790-1856.

    PubMed

    Refshauge, W F; Walsh, R J

    1981-01-01

    The hybrid English-Tahitian community which lived on Pitcairn Island between 1790 and 1856 exhibited a high population growth (3% overall). Unlike some other isolated groups, they did not live long lives (expectation of life at birth was 50.4 years overall for both sexes combined), but infant mortality, at 5.5% of births is lower than might have been expected. The level of marital fertility on Pitcairn was extremely high, higher even than for the Hutterites. Although births outside marriage were uncommon, brides were frequently pregnant at marriage. Age at first marriage changed markedly in response to changes in the community. There is some evidence that premarital sex became more frequent, possibly as an adjustment to Tahitian behavioural norms within the community's English religious ethic.

  8. Global warming, population growth, and natural resources for food production.

    PubMed

    Pimentel, D

    1991-01-01

    Destruction of forests and the considerable burning of fossil fuels is directly causing the level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases including methane, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere to rise. Population growth in the US and the world indirectly contributes to this global warming. This has led the majority of scientists interested in weather and climate to predict that the planet's temperature will increase from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. These forecasted climactic changes will most likely strongly affect crop production. Specifically these scientists expect the potential changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, and pests to decrease food production in North America. The degree of changes hinges on each crop and its environmental needs. If farmers begin using improved agricultural technology, the fall in crop yields can be somewhat counterbalanced. Even without global warming, however, agriculture in North America must embrace sensible ecological resource management practices such as conserving soil, water, energy, and biological resources. These sustainable agricultural practices would serve agriculture, farmers, the environment, and society. Agriculturalists, farmers, and society are already interested in sustainable agriculture. Still scientists must conduct more research on the multiple effects of potential global climate change on many different crops under various environmental conditions and on new technologies that farmers might use in agricultural production. We must cut down our consumption of fossil fuel, reduce deforestation, erase poverty, and protect our soil, water, and biological resources. The most important action we need to take, however, is to check population growth. PMID:12344889

  9. Food shortages in sub-Saharan Africa and population growth.

    PubMed

    Munisi, S E

    1982-12-01

    Food problems faced by sub-Saharan African nations center around the widening gap between food needs and availablity. Food shortages are suggested to originate from poor distribution and as a result of natural disasters; not as a consequence of population growth. Imperialism, colonialism, and neocolonial exploitation has encouraged African economic and cultural backwardness; a situation in which high population growth can have grave consequences. Fertility control is promoted by industrialized governments as a means of solving socioeconomic problems. However, fertility control may not be justified in many African nations which experience high infant mortality and labor intensive agriculture. Although the number of people who can be fed in any circumstance is ultimately finite, Africa's situation could be improved. If presently uninhabitable land was made suitable for settlement, land shortage from overpopulation would not be problematic for a long time. Modernization of agricultural practices could have a substantial impact of food production. At present, innovations are largely associated with the production of export crops which has often necessitated food imports. Food aid for relief in emergencies or for support of regions with chronic shortages is appropriate and beneficial, however, in some cases food aid can be detrimental, e.g., by lowering food prices thus burdening small farmers. Food aid tends to create dependency, not self-sufficiency. Malnutrition and hunger are symptoms of underdevelopment. At the policy level, a food and nutrition strategy should include rural development designed to improve income redistribution, agricultural modernization, and measures to influence the production of various foods to ensure a balanced diet, and nutrition and health intervention programs for vulnerable groups. In addition to overall agricultural development, 2 general recommendations are offered: increased production of staple food stuffs and a concentrated effort to

  10. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    PubMed

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives. PMID:12322589

  11. An assessment of bird habitat quality using population growth rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knutson, M.G.; Powell, L.A.; Hines, R.K.; Friberg, M.A.; Niemi, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    Survival and reproduction directly affect population growth rate (lambda) making lambda a fundamental parameter for assessing habitat quality. We used field data, literature review, and a computer simulation to predict annual productivity and lambda for several species of landbirds breeding in floodplain and upland forests in the Midwestern United States. We monitored 1735 nests of 27 species; 760 nests were in the uplands and 975 were in the floodplain. Each type of forest habitat (upland and floodplain) was a source habitat for some species. Despite a relatively low proportion of regional forest cover, the majority of species had stable or increasing populations in all or some habitats, including six species of conservation concern. In our search for a simple analog for lambda, we found that only adult apparent survival, juvenile survival, and annual productivity were correlated with lambda; daily nest survival and relative abundance estimated from point counts were not. Survival and annual productivity are among the most costly demographic parameters to measure and there does not seem to be a low-cost alternative. In addition, our literature search revealed that the demographic parameters needed to model annual productivity and lambda were unavailable for several species. More collective effort across North America is needed to fill the gaps in our knowledge of demographic parameters necessary to model both annual productivity and lambda. Managers can use habitat-specific predictions of annual productivity to compare habitat quality among species and habitats for purposes of evaluating management plans.

  12. Population growth and a sustainable environment. The Machakos story.

    PubMed

    Mortimore, M; Tiffen, M

    1994-10-01

    The view is taken that population density in the Machakos District (boundaries prior to 1992) of Kenya influenced both environmental conservation and productivity through adaptation of new technologies. Changes in resource management in Machakos District are identified as a shift to cash crop production, experimentation with staple food options, faster tillage, use of fertilizers for enhancing soil fertility, and livestock and tree cultivation. These agricultural changes occurred due to subdivision of landholdings among sons, private appropriation of scarce grazing land, and land scarcity. Intensive practices such as intensive livestock feeding systems and the permanent manuring of fields increased the efficiency of nutrient cycling through plants, animals, and soils. The Akamba custom gave land rights to those who tilled the soil first. Formal land registration occurred after 1968 and favored owners and investors. Small farm investment was made possible through work off-farm and remittances. The value of output per square kilometer at constant prices increased during 1930-87. Cultivated land area also increased during this period, but mostly on poorer quality land. Agricultural changes were enhanced by social and institutional factors such as small family units and greater partnerships between husband and wife. Families pooled resources through collectives. Women played leadership roles. Competing interest groups and organizations have evolved and enabled people to articulate their needs and obtain access to resources at all levels. These institutions increased in strength over time and with increased density. The cost of service provision decreased with greater population numbers. Development of roads and schools facilitated formal education. Population density, market growth, and a generally supportive economic environment are viewed as the factors responsible for changes in Machakos District. Technological change is viewed as an endogenous process of adaptation

  13. Population growth and a sustainable environment. The Machakos story.

    PubMed

    Mortimore, M; Tiffen, M

    1994-10-01

    The view is taken that population density in the Machakos District (boundaries prior to 1992) of Kenya influenced both environmental conservation and productivity through adaptation of new technologies. Changes in resource management in Machakos District are identified as a shift to cash crop production, experimentation with staple food options, faster tillage, use of fertilizers for enhancing soil fertility, and livestock and tree cultivation. These agricultural changes occurred due to subdivision of landholdings among sons, private appropriation of scarce grazing land, and land scarcity. Intensive practices such as intensive livestock feeding systems and the permanent manuring of fields increased the efficiency of nutrient cycling through plants, animals, and soils. The Akamba custom gave land rights to those who tilled the soil first. Formal land registration occurred after 1968 and favored owners and investors. Small farm investment was made possible through work off-farm and remittances. The value of output per square kilometer at constant prices increased during 1930-87. Cultivated land area also increased during this period, but mostly on poorer quality land. Agricultural changes were enhanced by social and institutional factors such as small family units and greater partnerships between husband and wife. Families pooled resources through collectives. Women played leadership roles. Competing interest groups and organizations have evolved and enabled people to articulate their needs and obtain access to resources at all levels. These institutions increased in strength over time and with increased density. The cost of service provision decreased with greater population numbers. Development of roads and schools facilitated formal education. Population density, market growth, and a generally supportive economic environment are viewed as the factors responsible for changes in Machakos District. Technological change is viewed as an endogenous process of adaptation

  14. Benchmarks for health expenditures, services and outcomes in Africa during the 1990s.

    PubMed Central

    Peters, D. H.; Elmendorf, A. E.; Kandola, K.; Chellaraj, G.

    2000-01-01

    There is limited information on national health expenditures, services, and outcomes in African countries during the 1990s. We intend to make statistical information available for national level comparisons. National level data were collected from numerous international databases, and supplemented by national household surveys and World Bank expenditure reviews. The results were tabulated and analysed in an exploratory fashion to provide benchmarks for groupings of African countries and individual country comparison. There is wide variation in scale and outcome of health care spending between African countries, with poorer countries tending to do worse than wealthier ones. From 1990-96, the median annual per capita government expenditure on health was nearly US$ 6, but averaged US$ 3 in the lowest-income countries, compared to US$ 72 in middle-income countries. Similar trends were found for health services and outcomes. Results from individual countries (particularly Ethiopia, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Gabon) are used to indicate how the data can be used to identify areas of improvement in health system performance. Serious gaps in data, particularly concerning private sector delivery and financing, health service utilization, equity and efficiency measures, hinder more effective health management. Nonetheless, the data are useful for providing benchmarks for performance and for crudely identifying problem areas in health systems for individual countries. PMID:10916913

  15. Cyclospora cayetanensis: a review, focusing on the outbreaks of cyclosporiasis in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Herwaldt, B L

    2000-10-01

    Cyclospora cayetanensis, a coccidian parasite that causes protracted, relapsing gastroenteritis, has a short recorded history. In retrospect, the first 3 documented human cases of Cyclospora infection were diagnosed in 1977 and 1978. However, not much was published about the organism until the 1990s. One of the surprises has been the fact that a parasite that likely requires days to weeks outside the host to become infectious has repeatedly caused foodborne outbreaks, including large multistate outbreaks in the United States and Canada. In this review, I discuss what has been learned about this enigmatic parasite since its discovery and what some of the remaining questions are. My focus is the foodborne and waterborne outbreaks of cyclosporiasis that were documented from 1990 through 1999. The occurrence of the outbreaks highlights the need for health care personnel to consider that seemingly isolated cases of infection could be part of widespread outbreaks and should be reported to public health officials. Health care personnel should also be aware that stool specimens examined for ova and parasites usually are not examined for Cyclospora unless such testing is specifically requested and that Cyclospora infection is treatable with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. PMID:11049789

  16. Toward Expanding Tremor Observations in the Northern San Andreas Fault System in the 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damiao, L. G.; Dreger, D. S.; Nadeau, R. M.; Taira, T.; Guilhem, A.; Luna, B.; Zhang, H.

    2015-12-01

    The connection between tremor activity and active fault processes continues to expand our understanding of deep fault zone properties and deformation, the tectonic process, and the relationship of tremor to the occurrence of larger earthquakes. Compared to tremors in subduction zones, known tremor signals in California are ~5 to ~10 smaller in amplitude and duration. These characteristics, in addition to scarce geographic coverage, lack of continuous data (e.g., before mid-2001 at Parkfield), and absence of instrumentation sensitive enough to monitor these events have stifled tremor detection. The continuous monitoring of these events over a relatively short time period in limited locations may lead to a parochial view of the tremor phenomena and its relationship to fault, tectonic, and earthquake processes. To help overcome this, we have embarked on a project to expand the geographic and temporal scope of tremor observation along the Northern SAF system using available continuous seismic recordings from a broad array of 100s of surface seismic stations from multiple seismic networks. Available data for most of these stations also extends back into the mid-1990s. Processing and analysis of tremor signal from this large and low signal-to-noise dataset requires a heavily automated, data-science type approach and specialized techniques for identifying and extracting reliable data. We report here on the automated, envelope based methodology we have developed. We finally compare our catalog results with pre-existing tremor catalogs in the Parkfield area.

  17. Decadal increase in Ningaloo Niño since the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Ming; Hendon, Harry H.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Marshall, Andrew G.; Schiller, Andreas; Kosaka, Yu; Caputi, Nick; Pearce, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Niño refers to the episodic occurrence of anomalously warm ocean conditions along the subtropical coast of Western Australia (WA). Ningaloo Niño typically develops in austral spring, peaks in summer, and decays in autumn, and it often occurs in conjunction with La Niña conditions in the Pacific which promote poleward transport of warm tropical waters by the Leeuwin Current. Since the late 1990s, there has been a marked increase in the occurrence of Ningaloo Niño, which is likely related to the recent swing to the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variance since 1970s. The swing to the negative IPO sustains positive heat content anomalies and initiates more frequent cyclonic wind anomalies off the WA coast so favoring enhanced poleward heat transport by the Leeuwin Current. The anthropogenically forced global warming has made it easier for natural variability to drive extreme ocean temperatures in the region.

  18. Federal roles to realize national energy-efficiency opportunities in the 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirst, Eric

    1989-10-01

    Improving energy efficiency throughout the U.S. economy is a vital component of our nation's energy future, with many benefits. Improving efficiency can: save money consumers, increase economic productivity and international competitiveness, reduce oil and gas prices by reducing the demand for foreign oil, enhance national security by lowering oil imports, reduce the adverse environmental consequences of fuel cycles, especially acid rain and global warming, add diversity and flexibility to the nation's portfolio of energy resources, respond to public interest in, and support of, energy efficiency. The primary purpose of this report is to suggest expanded roles for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in improving energy efficiency during the 1990s. In an ideal world, the normal workings of the market place would yield optimal energy-efficiency purchase and operating decisions. Unfortunately, distortions in fuel prices, limited access to capital, misplaced incentives, lack of information, and difficulty in processing information complicate energy-related decision making. Thus, consumers in all sectors of the economy underinvest in energy-efficient systems. These market barriers, coupled with growing concern about environmental quality, justify a larger Federal role.

  19. Foul weather friends: big business and health care reform in the 1990s in historical perspective.

    PubMed

    Swenson, Peter; Greer, Scott

    2002-08-01

    Existing accounts of the Clinton health reform efforts of the early 1990s neglect to examine how the change in big business reform interests during the short period between the late 1980s and 1994 might have altered the trajectory of compulsory health insurance legislation in Congress. This article explores evidence that big employers lost their early interest in reform because they believed their private remedies for bringing down health cost inflation were finally beginning to work. This had a discouraging effect on reform efforts. Historical analysis shows how hard times during the Great Depression also aligned big business interests with those of reformers seeking compulsory social insurance. Unlike the present case, however, the economic climate did not quickly improve, and the social insurance reform of the New Deal succeeded. The article speculates, therefore, that had employer health expenditures not flattened out, continuing and even growing big business support might have neutralized small business and other opposition that contributed heavily to the failure of reform. Thus in light of the Clinton administration's demonstrated willingness to compromise with business on details of its plan, some kind of major reform might have succeeded.

  20. Hydrocarbon occurrences in igneous and metamorphic rocks: Plays of the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Harrelson, D.W.

    1989-09-01

    A review of available geologic literature has indicated numerous references detailing the occurrences of hydrocarbon in igneous and metamorphic rocks. Notable among these references is a paper by Chung-Hsiang P'an and a group of papers edited by Sidney Powers. Collectively, these papers conclude a biogenic source for hydrocarbons, most of which occur in (1) weathered igneous and metamorphic reservoir rocks that are higher than the source rocks (e.g., Amarillo field) or (2) igneous and metamorphic rocks that exert structural or stratigraphic control on the reservoir or source rocks (e.g., Jackson dome and the Wiggins anticline-Hancock ridge). It should be noted that a new twist on the abiogenic origin of some inert hydrocarbon gases (i.e., helium and nitrogen) proposes a degassing of igneous and metamorphic rocks from sources in the underlying mantle. Recent european super-deep tests (e.g., the Siljan Ring and the Kola SG-3 testholes) have attempted, with mixed results, to verify this theory. Drilling for these deep igneous and metamorphic prospects today is considered at or below economic basement or worse - a rank wildcat. However, these plays should become increasingly commercial in the 1990s as deeper drilling technology progresses, the current oil glut is eliminated, and more exotic deep gas prospects become accepted.

  1. USNRC's Nuclear Plant Analyzer: Engineering simulation capabilities into the 1990's

    SciTech Connect

    Laats, E.T.

    1987-01-01

    The Nuclear Plant Analyzer (NPA) is the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) state-of-the-art nuclear reactor simulation capability. This computer software package integrates high fidelity nuclear reactor simulation codes such as the TRAC and RELAP5 series of codes with color graphics display techniques and advanced workstation hardware. The NPA first became operational at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) in 1983. Since then, the NPA system has been used for a number of key reactor safety-related tasks ranging from plant operator guidelines evaluation to emergency preparedness training. The NPA system is seen by the NRC as their vehicle to maintain modern, state-of-the-art simulation capabilities for use into the 1990s. System advancements are envisioned in two areas: first, software improvements to existing and evolving plant simulation codes utilized by the NPA through the use of such techniques as parallel and vector processing and artificial intelligence expert systems, and second, advanced hardware implementations using combinations of super-, minisuper-, supermini-, and supermicrocomputer system and satellite data communications networks for high flexibilty and greatly increased NPA system performance. 23 refs., 2 figs.

  2. Did the elimination of lead from petrol reduce crime in the USA in the 1990s?

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    This article assesses the evidence for the hypothesis that a decline in all types of crime since the early 1990s in the USA was a consequence of removing lead from petrol between 1975 and 1985. It describes ecological and econometric studies that have generally but not always found correlations between lead exposures in childhood and some types of crime 20 years later; a small number of epidemiological studies that have found a dose-response relationship between lead exposure in childhood and self-reported and officially recorded criminal offences in young adulthood; and evidence for the biological plausibility of a causal relationship. Lead exposure in childhood may have played a small role in rising and falling crime rates in the USA but it is unlikely to account for the very high percentage of the decline suggested by the ecological studies. The major anomaly in the evidence is that the associations reported in ecological studies are much stronger (explaining 56-90% of the variation in crime rates) than the weaker relationships found in the cohort studies (that typically explain less than 1% of the variance in offending).  Suggestions are made for research that will better assess the contribution that reduced lead exposure has made to declining crime rates in the USA. PMID:24555074

  3. Reality in the 1990s and beyond-more with less.

    PubMed

    Lane, P A

    1995-01-01

    It is no secret that the pharmaceutical industry is undergoing rapid and revolutionary change. The impact of managed care and threatened pricing caps by the US Congress on new products has caused many companies to re-evaluate their short and long term business and research strategies. In too many cases, this has resulted in down-sizing by both lay-offs and attrition. For most analytical laboratories, this has meant doing more with less resources. There are several major 'realities' that are having a significant influence on the amount and type of analytical support required to bring a new product to the market place in today's regulatory climate. They are pre-approval inspections, the Barr decision and the proposed ICH guidelines. Other realities of the 1990s are also influencing the operation of the analytical laboratory. To cope with these realities, wise use of resources is mandatory. The strategies employed by each company differ, but laboratory automation is usually one of the important elements of the equation. Other elements include contract laboratories, consultants and temporaries. Each of these elements provides part of the solution to doing more with less, but each has its own positives and negatives which must be considered. This paper looks at the relationships between these factors and their impact on the analytical laboratory.

  4. Health policy in the Baltic countries since the beginning of the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Bankauskaite, Vaida; O'Connor, Julia S

    2008-12-01

    The objective of this article is to compare the development of health policies in three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the period from 1992 to 2004 and reflect on whether key dimensions of these policies are developing in parallel, diverging or even converging in some respects. The paper identifies the similarity in the overall goals and compares the policy content in primary health care, the hospital sector and financing. We conclude that health policy in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania has been progressing in parallel towards a Western European social insurance funding model, developing a primary care system anchored on a general practitioner service and lessening the hospital orientation of the pre-1990s system. There is evidence of both convergence and divergence across the three countries and of progress in the direction of EU15 in key health policy and outcome characteristics. These patterns are explained partly by differing starting points and partly by political and economic factors over the 1992-2004 period. PMID:18485520

  5. Institutional Research Productivity in Science Education for the 1990s: Top 30 Rankings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrow, Lloyd H.; Settlage, John; Germann, Paul J.

    2008-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify the major science education programs in the United States, where the science education researchers published their research. This research is the first study of the scholarly productivity of science education programs at domestic institutions of higher education. Each issue of the eight research journals ( Journal of Research in Science Teaching, Science Education, International Journal of Science Education, Journal of Science Teacher Education, School Science and Mathematics, Journal of Computers in Math and Science Teaching, Journal of Science Education and Technology, and Journal of Elementary Science Education) published in the 1990s provided the author(s) and their institutional affiliation. The resultant ranking of raw and weighted counts for the top 30 science educations programs shows variation in journals where research was published. Overall, regardless whether the total number of publications (raw) or weighted rating there was 90% agreement among top 10 and 70% agreement among the bottom 10. Potential explanations for variations and uses for rankings are discussed.

  6. Particle astrophysics - The NASA cosmic ray program for the 1990s and beyond

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, W. V. (Editor); Kerr, Frank J. (Editor); Ormes, Jonathan F. (Editor)

    1990-01-01

    Various papers on particle astrophysics are presented. Individual topics addressed include: the NASA cosmic ray (CR) program for the 1990s and beyond, SAMPEX Mission overview, the Advanced Composition Explorer, Positron Electron Magnet Spectrometer for the Eos Mission, Heavy Nucleus Collector for Space Station, the Astromag Facility, Large Isotope Spectrometer for Astromag, the Solar Probe Mission, the Mercury Dual Orbiter Mission, CRs in the heliosphere, origin of high-energy Galactic CRs, CR studies with the Gamma-Ray Observatory, gamma-ray astronomy at 1 TeV, experimental search for point sources above 1 TeV, the UMC Extensive Air Shower Array, status of the MACRO experiment. Also discussed are: CRs above 1 TeV/n and neutrino astronomy, abundance of ultraheavy nuclei in solar energetic particles, CR studies with an interstellar probe, isotopic composition of CR nuclei beyond the iron peak, experimental studies of CR isotopic composition up to Zr-40, use of accelerators in particle astrophysics, development of long-duration ballooning in Antarctica, Lunar-Based Heavy Nucleus Detector, neutrino astronomy on the moon, gamma rays at airplane altitudes, source composition of CRs.

  7. An unexpected rise in strontium-90 in US deciduous teeth in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Mangano, Joseph J; Gould, Jay M; Sternglass, Ernest J; Sherman, Janette D; McDonnell, William

    2003-12-30

    For several decades, the United States has been without an ongoing program measuring levels of fission products in the body. Strontium-90 (Sr-90) concentrations in 2089 deciduous (baby) teeth, mostly from persons living near nuclear power reactors, reveal that average levels rose 48.5% for persons born in the late 1990s compared to those born in the late 1980s. This trend represents the first sustained increase since the early 1960s, before atmospheric weapons tests were banned. The trend was consistent for each of the five states for which at least 130 teeth are available. The highest averages were found in southeastern Pennsylvania, and the lowest in California (San Francisco and Sacramento), neither of which is near an operating nuclear reactor. In each state studied, the average Sr-90 concentration is highest in counties situated closest to nuclear reactors. It is likely that, 40 years after large-scale atmospheric atomic bomb tests ended, much of the current in-body radioactivity represents nuclear reactor emissions.

  8. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).

    In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…

  9. Peace Education in the 1990s. A Guide to Five Conference Reports from PEC. Peace Education Miniprints, No. 84.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bjerstedt, Ake

    This bibliography lists and indexes a total of 124 papers presented during five international conferences held during the 1990s on the topic of peace education. This miniprint aims to make it easier for peace researchers and peace educators to locate conference contributions of special interest to them. The guide has been organized into three…

  10. The Quality of Life of Hong Kong's Poor Households in the 1990s: Levels of Expenditure, Income Security and Poverty

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Hung

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the changes in the quality of life of poor households in Hong Kong in the late 1990s by analyzing their levels of expenditure, income security and poverty before and after 1997. Though there have been significant increases in the levels of expenditure among CSSA recipients, the expenditure among these poorest households in Hong…

  11. Development Goals and Strategies for Children in the 1990s. A UNICEF Policy Review. Executive Board Decision 1990-2.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This document presents proposals for goals and strategies for children and development in the 1990s that were approved by the UNICEF Executive Board in April, 1990. The paper proposes that developing human capabilities and meeting basic human needs should be the focus of the UNICEF contribution to the fourth United Nations developmental decade.…

  12. Market Forces in Higher Education--Chinese and British Experience between Mid-1980s and Mid-1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhao, Xiaonan

    2010-01-01

    This paper tries to examine how higher education in China and Britain has been affected by market forces between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s, from three major issues. Comparing the experiences of both places, the paper argues that unlike the case of British counterpart, where marketisation of education has shifted to a corporate management…

  13. Constructivism and the Neoliberal Agenda in the Spanish Curriculum Reform of the 1980s and 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rodriguez, Encarna

    2011-01-01

    This article challenges the assumption underlying most education reforms that constructivism is politically neutral and intrinsically democratic. It makes this argument by examining the curriculum reform in Spain during the 1980s and 1990s in light of the neoliberal politics that the country was experiencing at that time. This study employs the…

  14. From Moscow: Living and Teaching among the Russians in the 1990s. Russian Memoirs Series No. 4.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Brien, Dora

    This book recounts events in a Russian school during the 1990s when Russia itself was in transition. The book tells the story of an English teacher who dreamed of working in Russia and nearly 30 years later saw her dream come true. Old ways run in parallel with new Western-inspired methods. The outlooks of different generations more than ever…

  15. Turning Points: Books and Reports that Reflected and Shaped U.S. Education, 1749-1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Franklin

    This document explores a selection influential books and reports on U.S. education that appeared between 1749 and the 1990s. The analysis begins with Benjamin Franklin's "Proposals Relating to the Education of Youth in Pennsylvania", early writings on women's and adult education, the McGuffey reader of the mid-nineteenth century, and Charles…

  16. THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF POPULATION GROWTH TO SURVIVAL, GROWTH AND REPRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Matrix population models are often used to extrapolate from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to population-level effects. Demographic elasticity analysis of a matrix model allows an evaluation of the relative sensitivity of population growth rate ...

  17. History of regulatory requirements for poultry biologics in the United States, 1970s to 1990s.

    PubMed

    Espeseth, David A; Lasher, Hiram

    2013-06-01

    By the end of the 1960s, The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had established the basic purity and safety standards for poultry biologics in the United States and had licensed products to address many of the major poultry diseases of concern at that time. The emergence of new diseases, advances in scientific technology, and changes in poultry husbandry practices that occurred in the 1970s to the 1990s required the development of many new and amended regulatory requirements to keep abreast of the changing needs of the poultry industry. Veterinary Services often approved the use of special or conditional licensing procedures to shorten the time to license products needed to address emerging diseases. Infectious bronchitis, bursal disease, fowl cholera, duck virus enteritis, avian influenza, and other vaccines were rapidly licensed to address emerging disease problems using this procedure. Changes in labeling and packaging requirements were made to address changing vaccination practices. Veterinary Services permitted diluents to be shipped separate from product, first for Marek's disease vaccine and later for vaccines recommended for administration by automatic vaccinating machines. The maximum number of doses permitted to be in one container and package were also amended to address the increased size of poultry flocks. Veterinary Services also approved the use of split manufacturing procedures that permitted two or more licensed manufacturers to work together in the production of a product. This innovative use of licensing products for further manufacture allowed the industry to use production facilities more efficiently and provided a wider variety of combination products. In 1985, Congress passed an amendment to the Virus-Serum-Toxin Act that gave USDA the authority to regulate all veterinary biological products shipped in or from the United States. This amendment brought intrastate biologics manufacturers under federal jurisdiction and ensured all

  18. The United States Supreme Court and psychiatry in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Ciccone, J R

    1999-03-01

    In the 1990s, the Supreme Court has decided several cases that have had an impact on psychiatry and psychiatric patients in the criminal justice system, on psychiatric hospitalization, and on psychotherapist-patient privilege. Of the seven cases discussed in this article, Chief Justice Rehnquist and Justice Scalia voted similarly in all seven cases. Since joining the court, Justice Thomas has voted with them. Justice Scalia interprets the Constitution, using what has been termed "textualism": avoid reference to legislative history, and interpret the Constitution according to the plain language meaning of the relevant section. Chief Justice Rehnquist and Justices Scalia and Thomas are inclined to protect states' rights from court decisions that expand US Constitutional power in cases involving civil plaintiffs and criminal defendants. They seek to protect states from being sued in federal courts, and, if there is doubt, lean toward not interfering with state prerogatives. They tend to not find unenumerated rights and prefer clear-cut rules over amorphous standards. Justices Kennedy and O'Connor, at times joined by Justice Souter in the middle of the court, provide the deciding votes in many cases. They seem to prefer a case-by-case pragmatism over a global jurisprudential philosophy. Approaching cases one at a time, they usually avoid broad philosophic pronouncements when they join with Chief Justice Rehnquist. Justice Stevens, joined by Justices Breyer and Ginsburg since they have been appointed to the court, is more likely to favor a broader reading of the 14th Amendment's Due Process and Equal Protection clauses. Of the seven cases, Kennedy and O'Connor voted with the majority in five cases, the dissent in one case (Zinermon v Burch), and split their votes in one case (Foucha v Louisiana, with O'Connor siding with the Court and Kennedy with the dissent). Commager, a noted historian, believed that political issues can be explored, explained, and debated and that

  19. A Premiere example of the illusion of harm reduction cigarettes in the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Pollay, R; Dewhirst, T

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To use the product launch of Player's Premiere as a case study for understanding the new cigarette product development process during the 1990s. We determine the (in)validity of industry claims that: (1) development of the physical product preceded the promotional promise of "less irritation"; (2) "less irritation" was actually realised; (3) advertising informed consumers; and (4) advertising regulations caused the product's failure in the marketplace. Setting: Court proceedings assessing the constitutionality of Canada's Tobacco Act, which substantially restricts cigarette advertising. The 2002 Quebec Superior Court trial yielded a new collection of internal documents from Imperial Tobacco Ltd (ITL), including several about the development and marketing of Player's Premiere. Method: Trial testimony and corporate documents were reviewed to determine the validity of the industry representations about the new cigarette product development process, focusing on the case history of Player's Premiere. Results: In direct contradiction to industry testimony, the documentary evidence demonstrates that (1) communications for Player's Premiere, which claimed less irritation, were developed long before finding a product that could deliver on the promise; (2) ITL did not sell a "less irritating" product that matched its promotional promise; (3) the advertising and other communications for Player's Premiere were extensive, relying on the hi-tech appearances ("tangible credibility") of a "unique" filter, yet were uninformative and vague; and (4) Player's Premiere failed in the marketplace, despite extensive advertising and retail support, because it was an inferior product that did not live up to its promotional promise, not because of regulation of commercial speech. Conclusions: New product development entails extensive consumer research to craft all communications tools in fine detail. In the case of Player's Premiere, this crafting created a false and misleading

  20. Widespread reductions in haze across the United States from the early 1990s through 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hand, J. L.; Schichtel, B. A.; Malm, W. C.; Copeland, S.; Molenar, J. V.; Frank, N.; Pitchford, M.

    2014-09-01

    Visibility has improved significantly at many remote areas across the United States since the early 1990s. Trends in visibility were calculated using ambient light extinction coefficients (bext) estimated from speciated particulate concentrations measured by the IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) network. The 20% haziest bext levels were computed for each year following Regional Haze Rule guidelines and aggregated over three major regions of the United States. Over the last two decades (1992-2011) the regional mean 20% haziest bext dropped by 52% (-2.6% yr-1, p < 0.01) in the eastern United States, and by 20% (-1.0% yr-1, p = 0.08) for sites along the West Coast. However, in the Intermountain/Southwest region, the trend was insignificant (-0.2% yr-1, p = 0.36). Over the last decade (2002-2011) the haziest bext in the Intermountain/Southwest region decreased by 15% (-1.5% yr-1, p = 0.09), compared to a decrease of 35% (-3.5% yr-1, p = 0.06) in the West Coast region and 50% (-5.0% yr-1, p = 0.02) in the East. A novel aspect to this study is the visualization of trends through the simulation of images of national parks and other remote areas for early and current haziest conditions. These images are an effective means for communicating trends and illustrate the dramatic improvement in visibility, especially in the East, where reductions in sulfate concentrations and sulfur dioxide emissions have had a positive impact on visibility degradation. However, while conditions are clearer for regions in the West, less improvement points to the need for understanding the influences on the trends in haziest conditions in those regions.

  1. [Beijing to use education, incentives to control population growth].

    PubMed

    1979-11-01

    The Beijing Municipal Family Planning Office started in 1979 a "1 child-1 family" campaign aimed at city dwellers and suburban peasants through a system of incentives for parents. The aim is to reduce China's population growth to 5/1000 by 1985. Parents who undertake to have only 1 child will receive a certificate entitling the child to preferential entrance to nursery school, kindergarten, school, factory jobs, and preferential treatment in medical care. A 1 child family will receive an annual 60 yuan bonus to be returned if the parents decide to have another child. Better housing and less taxation will also be provided for 1 child families. Childless people will receive their full wage as a pension on retirement, or will receive subsidies from their production team. A series of measures to improve maternity and child care, and sterilization operations have also been taken. An education campaign to change ideas about male superiority is presently taking place in rural areas, and young couples are recommended to move in with the bride's family.

  2. MECHANISMS OF FLUID SHEAR-INDUCED INHIBITION OF POPULATION GROWTH IN A RED-TIDE DINOFLAGELLATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Net population growth of some dinoflagellates is inhibited by fluid shear at shear stresses comparable with those generated during oceanic turbulence. Decreased net growth may occur through lowered cell division, increased mortality, or both. The dominant mechanism under various ...

  3. Using Spreadsheets To Model Population Growth, Competition and Predation in Nature.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Ashley J. R.

    1999-01-01

    Describes how to place mathematical equations modeling population growth into a spreadsheet that performs calculations quickly and easily. Suggests experiments that can be performed with the spreadsheets. (WRM)

  4. Is population growth a deterrent to development in the South Pacific?

    PubMed

    Ahlburg, D A

    1988-05-01

    "Some have argued that population growth deters development, while others claim that population growth either aids development or has no significant effect on development. In a sample of South Pacific nations, population growth and size were found to be unrelated to economic development, defined as GDP per capita. However, when indices of quality of life or social development such as mortality, health services and education were used, population growth and size were found to be negatively related to these indices. If these 'quality of life' indices are valued by nations, an argument may exist for policy support for family planning."

  5. Comparative Study of Population Growth and Agricultural Change: C - Case Study of India. Asian Population Studies Series No. 23.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok (Thailand).

    This report, the third in a series of five reports of the Comparative Study of Population Growth and Agricultural Change, describes a study of the two states of India (Punjaband and Orissa) which attempted to clarify the relationship between population pressure and agricultural change through a time series analysis. This study: (1) outlines trends…

  6. Resurgence of malaria in Bombay (Mumbai) in the 1990s: a historical perspective.

    PubMed

    Kamat, V

    2000-06-01

    Bombay has achieved extraordinary success in controlling its malaria problem for nearly six decades by relying primarily on legislative measures and non-insecticidal methods of mosquito abatement. In 1992, however, malaria reemerged in Bombay with a vengeance. During 1992-1997, the city witnessed a manifold increase in the number of malaria cases diagnosed and treated by the public health system. The large number of malaria patients treated by private practitioners was not recorded by the municipal malaria surveillance system during this period. In 1995, at the peak of the resurgence, public health officials of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Bombay (MCGB) confirmed that 170 persons in the city had died due to malaria. The crisis was unprecedented in Bombay's modern public health history. In response to intense criticism from the media, the city's public health officials attributed the resurgence to the global phenomenon of mosquito-vector resistance to insecticides, and Plasmodium resistance to antimalarial chemoprophylaxis and treatment. Local scientists who investigated the problem offered no support to this explanation. So what might explain the resurgence? What factors led the problem to reach an epidemic level in a matter of two or three years? In addressing the above principal questions, this paper adopts a historical perspective and argues that in the resurgence of malaria in Bombay in the 1990s, there is an element of the 'presence of the past'. In many ways the present public health crisis in Bombay resembles the health scenario that characterized the city at the turn of the 19th century. It is possible to draw parallels between the early public health history of malaria control in Bombay, which was punctuated by events that followed the bubonic plague epidemic of 1896, and the present-day malaria epidemic punctuated by the threat of a plague epidemic in 1994. As such, the paper covers a long period, of almost 100 years. This time-depth is used to

  7. The effects of invertebrate herbivores on plant population growth: a meta-regression analysis.

    PubMed

    Katz, Daniel S W

    2016-09-01

    Over the last two decades, an increasing number of studies have quantified the effects of herbivory on plant populations using stage-structured population models and integral projection models, allowing for the calculation of plant population growth rates (λ) with and without herbivory. In this paper, I assembled 29 studies and conducted a meta-regression to determine the importance of invertebrate herbivores to population growth rates (λ) while accounting for missing data. I found that invertebrate herbivory often induced important reductions in plant population growth rates (with herbivory, λ was 1.08 ± 0.36; without herbivory, λ was 1.28 ± 0.58). This relationship tended to be weaker for seed predation than for other types of herbivory, except when seed predation rates were very high. Even so, the amount by which studies reduced herbivory was a poor predictor of differences in population growth rates-which strongly cautions against using measured herbivory rates as a proxy for the impact of herbivores. Herbivory reduced plant population growth rates significantly more when potential growth rates were high, which helps to explain why there was less variation in actual population growth rates than in potential population growth rates. The synthesis of these studies also shows the need for future studies to report variance in estimates of λ and to quantify how λ varies as a function of plant density.

  8. The effects of invertebrate herbivores on plant population growth: a meta-regression analysis.

    PubMed

    Katz, Daniel S W

    2016-09-01

    Over the last two decades, an increasing number of studies have quantified the effects of herbivory on plant populations using stage-structured population models and integral projection models, allowing for the calculation of plant population growth rates (λ) with and without herbivory. In this paper, I assembled 29 studies and conducted a meta-regression to determine the importance of invertebrate herbivores to population growth rates (λ) while accounting for missing data. I found that invertebrate herbivory often induced important reductions in plant population growth rates (with herbivory, λ was 1.08 ± 0.36; without herbivory, λ was 1.28 ± 0.58). This relationship tended to be weaker for seed predation than for other types of herbivory, except when seed predation rates were very high. Even so, the amount by which studies reduced herbivory was a poor predictor of differences in population growth rates-which strongly cautions against using measured herbivory rates as a proxy for the impact of herbivores. Herbivory reduced plant population growth rates significantly more when potential growth rates were high, which helps to explain why there was less variation in actual population growth rates than in potential population growth rates. The synthesis of these studies also shows the need for future studies to report variance in estimates of λ and to quantify how λ varies as a function of plant density. PMID:27017603

  9. Population Growth and Demographic Structure. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Growth and Demographic Structure (Paris, France, November 16-20, 1992).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

    This volume contains the report and recommendations of the United Nations-sponsored meeting on population growth and demographic structure which was held in Paris, November 1992. Materials in the volume can serve as useful tools for future research on the relations between population, environment, and development and further the work of the United…

  10. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: fluctuations in population growth rate reduce effective population size in chinook salmon.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Jensen, David W; McClure, Michelle

    2010-03-01

    We empirically assess the relationship between population growth rate (lambda, a parameter central to ecology) and effective population size (N(e), a key parameter in evolutionary biology). Recent theoretical and numerical studies indicate that in semelparous species with variable age at maturity (such as Pacific salmon, many monocarpic plants, and various other species), differences in mean reproductive success among individuals reproducing in different years leads to variation in lambda, and this in turn can reduce N(e). However, this phenomenon has received little empirical evaluation. We examined time series of abundance data for 56 populations of chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha) from the northwestern United States and compared N(e) (calculated from demographic data) with the total number of spawners each generation (NT). Important results include: (1) The mean multigenerational ratio N(e)/N(T) was 0.64 (median = 0.67), indicating that annual variation in lambda reduces effective population size in chinook salmon by an average of approximately 35%. These reductions are independent of, and in addition to, factors that reduce N(e) within individual cohorts (uneven sex ratio and greater-than-random variance in reproductive success). (2) The coefficient of variation of lambda was the most important factor associated with reductions in N(e), explaining up to two-thirds of the variance in N(e)/N(T). (3) Within individual generations, N(e) was lower when there was a negative correlation between annual N(i) and lambda, i.e., when relatively few breeders produced relatively high numbers of offspring. Our results thus highlight an important and little-studied eco-evolutionary trade-off: density-dependent compensation has generally favorable ecological consequences (promoting stability and long-term viability) but incurs an evolutionary cost (reducing N(e) because a few individuals make a disproportionate genetic contribution). (4) For chinook salmon, N(eH) (an

  11. Population divergence in compensatory growth responses and their costs in sticklebacks

    PubMed Central

    Ab Ghani, Nurul Izza; Merilä, Juha

    2015-01-01

    Compensatory growth (CG) may be an adaptive mechanism that helps to restore an organisms’ growth trajectory and adult size from deviations caused by early life resource limitation. Yet, few studies have investigated the genetic basis of CG potential and existence of genetically based population differentiation in CG potential. We studied population differentiation, genetic basis, and costs of CG potential in nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) differing in their normal growth patterns. As selection favors large body size in pond and small body size in marine populations, we expected CG to occur in the pond but not in the marine population. By manipulating feeding conditions (viz. high, low and recovery feeding treatments), we found clear evidence for CG in the pond but not in the marine population, as well as evidence for catch-up growth (i.e., size compensation without growth acceleration) in both populations. In the marine population, overcompensation occurred individuals from the recovery treatment grew eventually larger than those from the high feeding treatment. In both populations, the recovery feeding treatment reduced maturation probability. The recovery feeding treatment also reduced survival probability in the marine but not in the pond population. Analysis of interpopulation hybrids further suggested that both genetic and maternal effects contributed to the population differences in CG. Hence, apart from demonstrating intrinsic costs for recovery growth, both genetic and maternal effects were identified to be important modulators of CG responses. The results provide an evidence for adaptive differentiation in recovery growth potential. PMID:25628860

  12. Understanding Rural Population Loss.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGranahan, David A.; Beale, Calvin L.

    2002-01-01

    A quarter of nonmetro counties lost population in the 1990s, but population loss was not related to poverty rate or low educational levels, perhaps because low-skill workers can no longer expect better wages in urban areas. Population loss was related to low population density and remoteness (which decrease access to services), lack of natural…

  13. Australia's Youth: Reality and Risk. A National Perspective on Developments That Have Affected 15-19 Year Olds during the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dusseldorp Skills Forum, Inc., Sydney (Australia).

    This first annual report by the Dusseldorp Skills Forum on the situation of young Australians provides a national perspective on developments that have affected 15-19 year olds during the 1990s. An overview chapter, "Youth: The Rhetoric and the Reality of the 1990s" (Richard Sweet), addresses these topics: education-work transition; the labor…

  14. Variability of the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index across the north slope of Alaska in the 1990s

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stow, D.; Daeschner, S.; Hope, A.; Douglas, D.; Petersen, A.; Myneni, R.; Zhou, L.; Oechel, W.

    2003-01-01

    The interannual variability and trend of above-ground photosynthetic activity of Arctic tundra vegetation in the 1990s is examined for the north slope region of Alaska, based on the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (SINDVI) derived from local area coverage (LAC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. Smaller SINDVI values occurred during the three years (1992-1994) following the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo. Even after implementing corrections for this stratospheric aerosol effect and adjusting for changes in radiometric calibration coefficients, an apparent increasing trend of SINDVI in the 1990s is evident for the entire north slope. The most pronounced increase was observed for the foothills physiographical province.

  15. Concept to Reality: Contributions of the Langley Research Center to US Civil Aircraft of the 1990s

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chambers, Joseph R.

    2003-01-01

    This document is intended to be a companion to NASA SP-2000-4519, 'Partners in Freedom: Contributions of the Langley Research Center to U.S. Military Aircraft of the 1990s'. Material included in the combined set of volumes provides informative and significant examples of the impact of Langley's research on U.S. civil and military aircraft of the 1990s. This volume, 'Concept to Reality: Contributions of the NASA Langley Research Center to U.S. Civil Aircraft of the 1990s', highlights significant Langley contributions to safety, cruise performance, takeoff and landing capabilities, structural integrity, crashworthiness, flight deck technologies, pilot-vehicle interfaces, flight characteristics, stall and spin behavior, computational design methods, and other challenging technical areas for civil aviation. The contents of this volume include descriptions of some of the more important applications of Langley research to current civil fixed-wing aircraft (rotary-wing aircraft are not included), including commercial airliners, business aircraft, and small personal-owner aircraft. In addition to discussions of specific aircraft applications, the document also covers contributions of Langley research to the operation of civil aircraft, which includes operating problems. This document is organized according to disciplinary technologies, for example, aerodynamics, structures, materials, and flight systems. Within each discussion, examples are cited where industry applied Langley technologies to specific aircraft that were in operational service during the 1990s and the early years of the new millennium. This document is intended to serve as a key reference for national policy makers, internal NASA policy makers, Congressional committees, the media, and the general public. Therefore, it has been written for a broad general audience and does not presume any significant technical expertise. An extensive bibliography is provided for technical specialists and others who desire a

  16. Contribution of the phase transition of Pacific Decadal Oscillation to the late 1990s' shift in East China summer rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    zhu, yali

    2016-04-01

    Based on our previous study, the interdecadal changes in summer rainfall over East China in the late 1990s are further explored here. The increased local rising motion is implicated as the dominant factor of increased rainfall in the lower Huang-Huai River valley (LHR). Both the observation and numerical experiments using Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 suggest that the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) mode can result in rising anomalies and thus more rainfall in the LHR. The East Asian westerly jet stream (EAWJS) is suggested as a bridge to link the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and East Asian summer rainfall. Model results reveal that the negative PDO mode can lead to significant easterly anomalies over East Asia. As a result, the EAWJS is weakened and shifts poleward, which coincides with observed changes in EAWJS after the late 1990s. In addition, weakened and poleward shifted EAWJS can result in an anomalous ascending motion to its south (in the LHR) by modulating the jet-related secondary meridional-vertical circulation. Consequently, rainfall increased in the LHR after the late 1990s. Besides, the positive Atlantic Meridional Oscillation can only induce insignificant changes over East Asia and partly counteract the negative PDO effect there.

  17. Commodities consumed in Italy, Greece and other Mediterranean countries compared with Australia in 1960s and 1990s.

    PubMed

    Noah, Ann; Truswell, Stewart

    2003-01-01

    Consumption figures for 15 major commodities (cereals, wheat, rice, maize, potato, pulses, olive oil, other vegetable oils, vegetables, fruits, wine, meats, animal fats, milk + products, and fish + seafood) were collected from FAO Food Balance Sheets during the 1960s (1961-1969) and late 1990s (1995-1999). For some nutritionists the "model Mediterranean diet" is the Italian or Greek diet of the 1960s, for others the concept of Mediterranean countries is more general. Analysis shows: (1) In the 1960s, Australia consumed more meat, milk, animal fat than Italy or Greece and less cereals, wheat, pulses, olive oil, vegetables, fruits and wine. (2) In the 1960s, Australia's olive oil, vegetables, fruits and wine consumption were within the range for all 18 Mediterranean countries (i.e. Spain, France, Italy, Malta, Croatia, Bosnia, Albania, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco). (3) In the 1990s, food consumptions have evolved; Australia's wine and milk consumption is now similar to Italy and Greece; consumption of wheat, olive oil, vegetables, fruits and fish are lower; consumption of potato, pulses, other vegetable oils and meat are higher than Italy or Greece. (4) Australia's consumption of the 15 commodities is within the range of all Mediterranean countries in the late 1990s, except wheat consumption was lower. PMID:12737007

  18. Evolution of thermal physiology and growth rate between populations of the western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis).

    PubMed

    Sinervo, B

    1990-06-01

    Hatchling Sceloporus occidentalis from northern populations (central Oregon) grow more slowly than hatchlings from southern populations (southern California) in nature. In this study, I determine whether this difference in growth rate results from differences in thermal environment and/or in thermoregulatory behavior. To determine the degree to which the thermal environment affects growth rate among populations, I reared hatchings from the northern and southern populations in a cycling thermal regime in one of three experimental treatments differing in access to radiant heat (6, 9, or 12 h radiant heat; remainder of 24 h at 15°C). I also measured the body temperature that each individual voluntarily selected over the course of the daily activity cycle. Growth rate varied positively with duration of access to radiant heat. Within the three treatments, individual growth rate was positively correlated with body temperature. Moreover, the difference in growth rate between the northern and southern populations was due in part to differences in behavior - individuals from northern populations selected lower body temperatures. I found that significant variation in body temperature was associated with family membership, suggesting that thermal physiology has a genetic basis. Moreover, growth rate was correlated with body temperature among families in each population suggesting a genetic correlation underlies the phenotypic correlations. Thus, genetically based variation in thermal physiology contributes to differences in growth rate among individuals within a population as well as to differences among populations. PMID:22160116

  19. Dynamics of single-species population growth: stability or chaos

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-01-01

    We have examined stability at the carrying capacity for 25 genetically different populations of Drosophila melanogaster. In spite of their genetic heterogeneity, 20 of the populations yield stable equilibria and none have eigenvalues significantly greater than one. Computer simulations demonstrate how selection at the individual level may account for population stability (and, hence, that group selection is not necessary for the evolution of stability). Recent theoretical studies on density-dependent selection in random environments provide predictions consistent with our empirical findings.

  20. A Photometer for Measuring Population Growth in Yeast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tatina, Robert; Hartley, Tamela; Thomas, Danita

    1999-01-01

    Describes the construction and use of an inexpensive, portable photometer designed specifically for estimating population sizes in yeast cultures. Suggests activities for use with the photometer. (WRM)

  1. Population level consequences of toxicological influences on individual growth and reproduction in Lumbricus rubellus (Lumbricidae, Oligochaeta).

    PubMed

    Klok, C; de Roos, A M

    1996-03-01

    The effects of increased environmental concentrations of copper on the population dynamics of Lumbricus rubellus are investigated. A size-structured matrix model is used to translate sublethal effects on individual growth and reproduction into their population dynamical consequences. Laboratory data on growth and reproduction under different, sublethal conditions of copper stress are used to parameterize the model. An estimate for the critical threshold concentration of copper (critical in a sense that the population growth rate at this concentration equals zero), obtained from the model analysis, agrees well with observations on field populations of L. rubellus. PMID:8723748

  2. Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities. Sao Paulo.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

    This document is one in a series of studies that focus on the population policies and plans of a number of mega-cities in developing countries. The object of the series is to examine the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of the population policies of mega-cities from a broad perspective, emphasizing the reciprocal links between…

  3. A macro analysis of population growth of China's ethnic groups in the 1980s.

    PubMed

    Yang, S; Liu, W

    1992-06-01

    8% of China's population is comprised of the 55 identified ethnic groups in 1990. The growth rate of this population between 1982 and 1990 was very high at 38.7/1000, or an increase of 1.43 over the previous 18 years. Natural increase was 18/1000. The total fertility rate was 2.9 in 1990. The causes for such rapid growth are reaffirmation of ethnic identity, a high fertility rate, and intermarriage with Han residents. 59% of the increased population reflected a new classification as an ethnic minority. Intermarriage with Han accounted for 4.4% of the increase. Since the revolution of 1949, there has been a release from the former oppression and population declines. In 1978, preferential policies were mandated for ethnic groups, which encouraged ethnic recognition. Ethnic status was enhanced and national awareness of ethnic groups was increased. The visual display of the ethnic age pyramid is evidence that the shape is quite different from the Han population. There are greater numbers of teenagers and those in reproductive ages. This cluster will affect population growth after the century's end. Ethnic population growth due to reaffirmation of ethnic identity also is different from natural increase in regional migration. A rise in population density within a location is not apparent. Carrying capacity of the local economy, resources, or environment is unaffected by the increase. It is inappropriate to measure the population pressure of high ethnic population growth. Eventually, ethnic growth will affect the growth rate of the national population. In ethnic areas, population growth should be planned in concert with economic development, use of resources, and protection of the ecology. Thus, ethnic area income/capita will be increased, inequality will be erased, and national autonomy achieved. The social stability and prosperity of all China is dependent on respect for happiness among ethnic minorities and economic and social development.

  4. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    PubMed

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

  5. [Population growth rate of the rotifer Brachionus rotundiformis (Rotifera: Brachionidae) in a two-stage chemostat].

    PubMed

    Cabrera, María I

    2008-09-01

    The population growth rate of the rotifer Brachionus rotundiformis (Rotifera: Brachionidae) in two-stage chemostat. The population growth rates of Brachionus rotundiformis were estimated in two-stage chemostat cultures. Chlorella sorokiniana was supplied continuously from a steady state culture growing with constant illumination on limiting nitrate. Rotifer growth in the second stage was limited by the rate of algal supply. The algal supply rate and rotifer population growth rate were determined by the second-stage dilution rate. The maximum population growth rate in the transient state of B. rotundiformis (1.96 day(-1)) was observed at 2.5 x 10(6) cel/ml of the algae whereas in the steady state the maximum population growth rate (1.09 day(-1)) was similar to the point Hopf's bifurcation predicted by Fussmann and was observed at 1 x 10(6) cel/ml of the algae. In the transient state, the rotifer's growth rate increased and the duplication time decreased at higher algal concentrations, until reaching a peak where the population growth rate begins to decrease. In the steady state, the opposite was true. The growth rates observed in this work are among the highest recorded for this rotifer in continuous cultures.

  6. Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

    PubMed Central

    Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  7. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    PubMed

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

  8. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    PubMed

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  9. How Population Growth and Land-Use Change Increased Fluvial Dissolved Organic Carbon Fluxes over 130 Years in the Thames Basin (UK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noacco, V.; Howden, N. J. K.; Wagener, T.; Worrall, F.; Burt, T. P.

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates drivers of changing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export in the UK's River Thames basin between 1884 and 2014. Specifically, we consider how the impacts of land-use change and population growth drive increases in DOC concentrations and fluxes at the basin outlet. Such key factors for the long-term increase in riverine DOC in temperate, mineral-soil catchments are still widely debated. First, we estimate soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the Thames basin for the period. Second, we convert SOC losses due to land-use change into DOC loss to surface waters through runoff. Finally, we combine this input of DOC with an export coefficient model that considers catchment drivers for DOC release to the river. SOC stocks for each year are calculated from a large database of typical SOC levels for land-uses present in the Thames basin and are combined with literature values of transition times for SOC to adjust to a new level following land-use change. We also account for climate change effects on SOC stock due to temperature increases, which reduces SOC stocks as soil organic matter turnover rates increase. Our work shows that the major driver for DOC increase to the river Thames was the rise in the catchment population, where the increase in urban area was used as a proxy. This highlights the role of sewage effluent in contributing to the rise of fluvial DOC, even though wastewater treatments were in place since the early 1990s. Land-use change had significant but short-term impacts in the increase in DOC, mainly due to massive conversion of permanent grassland into arable land during World War II.

  10. Rapid population growth of a critically endangered carnivore.

    PubMed

    Grenier, M B; McDonald, D B; Buskirk, S W

    2007-08-10

    Reintroductions of endangered species are controversial because of high costs and frequent failures. However, the population of black-footed ferrets descended from animals released in Shirley Basin, Wyoming, from 1991 to 1994 has grown rapidly after a decline to a low of five animals in 1997. Beginning around 2000, the population grew rapidly to an estimated 223 (95% confidence interval is 192 to 401) individuals in 2006. Matrix population modeling shows the importance of survival and reproduction during the first year of life, reflecting an uncommon life history for an endangered mammalian carnivore. Recovery of the species may benefit from more opportunistic and widespread releases. PMID:17690288

  11. Effects of Climate Change on Plant Population Growth Rate and Community Composition Change

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots—Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)—that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change. PMID:26039073

  12. Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

    PubMed

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

  13. Future population growth: researchers in three countries quantify causes and propose policies.

    PubMed

    1997-01-01

    This article discusses Population Council analyses conducted by social scientists from India, Kenya, and the Philippines. These scientists agreed that population momentum would continue to increase population size, and that governments must strengthen and create a range of economic, health, and social programs and policies to slow population growth. Multiple approaches will be needed. John Bongaarts is credited with being the first to identify the key role of population momentum and to decompose growth into unwanted fertility, high desired fertility, and population momentum. Unwanted fertility is responsible for about 19% of projected population growth in India, 26% in Kenya, and 16% in the Philippines. High wanted fertility accounts for 20% of future growth in India, 6% in Kenya, and 19% in the Philippines. Population momentum can account for under 50% or over 90% of growth. Unwanted fertility can be addressed by fulfilling unmet need and increasing knowledge of methods, reducing the fear of side effects and disapproval, and eliminating poor service. Family planning programs need to be strengthened and integrated with maternal and child health services. Preferred and actual family sizes can be reduced by lowering infant mortality by means of increasing infant and child health services and girls' educational attainment. Population momentum can be addressed by delaying age at marriage and childbearing through improving social conditions. Investments in human development through education, training, and income generation can create the conditions for slowing population growth. Countries should decompose population growth into its components of unwanted and high wanted fertility and population momentum as a means of distributing resources most effectively. PMID:12292641

  14. Retrospective study of maxilla growth in a Spanish population sample.

    PubMed

    Alió-Sanz, Juan; Iglesias-Conde, Carmen; Pernía, José-Lorenzo; Iglesias-Linares, Alejandro; Mendoza-Mendoza, Asunción; Solano-Reina, Enrique

    2011-03-01

    This study has been designed to evaluate the vertical and sagittal changes in the maxilla due to growth. A sample group was chosen of 38 individuals with normal occlusion, composed of 16 females and 22 males between the ages of 8 and 18. The total sample was divided into three groups: prepubescent (8-11 years), pubescent (12-14 years) and post-pubescent (15-18 years). A series of cephalometric angle parameters (SNA, maxillary height, slope of the palatal plane and maxillary depth) and lineal parameters (effective maxillary length, palatal plane length, middle third of the face height and convexity) were traced. Superimpositions of the initial and final cephalometries in the Ba-N plane and in the Nasion fixed point were carried out to measure growth. An analytic statistical analysis was applied using a Student t test for independent samples in order to evaluate the differences found according to sex. An analysis of variance followed by Duncan's multiple range test was done to study the evolution of each variable throughout the duration of the experiment. In light of the results obtained, we have come to the following conclusions: sagittal growth of the maxilla is constant from the age of 8 to 18 years with an average increase of 0.2 mm/year. Vertical growth, as well as general maxillary growth, is greater in the prepubescent group.

  15. Introduced Brassica nigra populations exhibit greater growth and herbivore resistance but less tolerance than native populations in the native range.

    PubMed

    Oduor, Ayub M O; Lankau, Richard A; Strauss, Sharon Y; Gómez, José M

    2011-07-01

    Rapid post-introduction evolution has been found in many invasive plant species, and includes changes in defence (resistance and tolerance) and competitive ability traits. Here, we explored the post-introduction evolution of a trade-off between resistance to and tolerance of herbivory, which has received little attention. In a common garden experiment in a native range, nine invasive and 16 native populations of Brassica nigra were compared for growth and defence traits. Invasive populations had higher resistance to, but lower tolerance of, herbivore damage than native populations. Invasive populations survived better and produced more seeds than native ones when released from herbivores; but fitness was equivalent between the regions under ambient herbivory. The invasive populations grew taller, and produced more biomass and lighter seeds than natives, irrespective of insecticide treatment. In addition to supporting the idea of post-introduction rapid evolution of plant traits, our results also contribute to an emerging pattern of both increasing resistance and growth in invasive populations, contrary to the predictions of earlier theories of resistance-growth trade-offs. PMID:21410474

  16. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Christopher N; Brook, Barry W

    2011-12-22

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene.

  17. Geographic after-tax real income differentials and population growth rates.

    PubMed

    Alexander, G; Cebula, R J; Koch, J V

    1990-03-01

    "The purpose of this [one-page] note is to empirically investigate the impact of geographic after-tax real income differentials on geographic population growth rate differentials. The focus is on population growth rates in Florida's 67 counties over the period 1980-88." The authors conclude that "even after allowing for a variety of other location-influencing factors, including coastal access, after-tax real income differentials exercise a positive and significant impact on population growth rate differentials among Florida's counties."

  18. Marital decision-making and the timing of first birth in rural China before the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Hong, Ying

    2006-11-01

    Using a sample of couples drawn from the three provinces of Guangdong, Shandong, and Shaanxi, we investigated whether couples' increasing freedom to choose whom to marry influenced the timing of first birth in rural China during the four decades before the 1990s. The shortening of first-birth intervals in the period is found to be associated with the shift from arranged to free-choice marriages. The association is attributed largely to increased intimacy and coital frequency after marriage together with postponement of age at first marriage.

  19. Is globalization undermining the welfare state? The evolution of the welfare state in developed capitalist countries during the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Navarro, Vicente; Schmitt, John; Astudillo, Javier

    2004-01-01

    The authors analyze the evolution of macro-indicators of social and economic well-being during the 1990s in the majority of developed capitalist countries, grouped according to their dominant political traditions since the end of World War II. Their analysis shows that, despite the economic globalization of commerce and finance, "politics still matters" in explaining the evolution of the welfare states and labor markets in these countries; the impact of the globalization of financial capital in forcing reductions in the financial resources available for welfare state purposes has been exaggerated.

  20. Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Chen, Wei; Liu, Xiaodong; Lu, Riyu; Sun, Ying

    2016-09-01

    This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature (SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface warming, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), annual hottest day temperature (TXx), and annual warmest night temperature (TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR). Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964-93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA (through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply

  1. World Bank Atlas: Population, Per Capita Product and Growth Rates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    World Bank, Washington, DC.

    The ninth edition of the World Bank Atlas shows estimates of population, gross national product, and per capita production of 189 countries and territories for 1972. The data presented in the atlas are the result of the work of the World Bank Group whose major purpose is to provide both financial and technical assistance and to improve the living…

  2. Calculating the Financial Impact of Population Growth on Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cline, Daniel H.

    It is particularly difficult to make accurate enrollment projections for areas that are experiencing a rapid expansion in their population. The traditional method of calculating cohort survival ratios must be modified and supplemented with additional information to ensure accuracy; cost projection methods require detailed analyses of current costs…

  3. What's behind the Good News: The Decline in Teen Pregnancy Rates during the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flanigan, Christine

    Noting that rates of teen pregnancies and births have declined over the past decade, this analysis examined how much of the progress is due to fewer teens having sex and how much to lower rates of pregnancy among sexually active teens. The analysis drew on data from the federal government's National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), a large,…

  4. Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms.

    PubMed Central

    Hudson, Peter J; Dobson, Andy P; Cattadori, Isabella M; Newborn, David; Haydon, Dan T; Shaw, Darren J; Benton, Tim G; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2002-01-01

    While the concept of population growth rate has been of central importance in the development of the theory of population dynamics, few empirical studies consider the intrinsic growth rate in detail, let alone how it may vary within and between populations of the same species. In an attempt to link theory with data we take two approaches. First, we address the question 'what growth rate patterns does theory predict we should see in time-series?' The models make a number of predictions, which in general are supported by a comparative study between time-series of harvesting data from 352 red grouse populations. Variations in growth rate between grouse populations were associated with factors that reflected the quality and availability of the main food plant of the grouse. However, while these results support predictions from theory, they provide no clear insight into the mechanisms influencing reductions in population growth rate and regulation. In the second part of the paper, we consider the results of experiments, first at the individual level and then at the population level, to identify the important mechanisms influencing changes in individual productivity and population growth rate. The parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis is found to have an important influence on productivity, and when incorporated into models with their patterns of distribution between individuals has a destabilizing effect and generates negative growth rates. The hypothesis that negative growth rates at the population level were caused by parasites was demonstrated by a replicated population level experiment. With a sound and tested model framework we then explore the interaction with other natural enemies and show that in general they tend to stabilize variations in growth rate. Interestingly, the models show selective predators that remove heavily infected individuals can release the grouse from parasite-induced regulation and allow equilibrium populations to rise. By contrast, a

  5. Bilingual Education: Heading into the 1990s, the U.S. Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sosa, Alicia Salinas

    The focus of federally-funded bilingual education programs has shifted over the past 20 years from serving educationally disadvantaged limited English proficient (LEP) students to serving recent immigrants and identifying alternatives to bilingual education. Since the 1960s, the LEP student population has grown increasingly diverse, illiterate,…

  6. Is Welfare Reform Responsible for Low Skilled Women's Declining Health Insurance Coverage in the 1990s?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeLeire, Thomas; Levine, Judith A.; Levy, Helen

    2006-01-01

    We use data from the 1989-2001 March Supplements to the Current Population Survey to determine whether welfare reform contributed to declines in health insurance coverage experienced by low-skilled women. Between 1988 and 2000, women with less than a high school education experienced an 8.0 percentage point decline in the probability of having…

  7. Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon.

    PubMed

    Troyer, Elizabeth M; Cameron Devitt, Susan E; Sunquist, Melvin E; Goswami, Varun R; Oli, Madan K

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models.

  8. The environment and population growth: decade for action.

    PubMed

    1992-05-01

    The signs of environmental stress grow as the world's population increases: worn-out farmlands, eroded hillsides, polluted water, parched grasslands, smoke-laden air, depleted ozone, and treeless ranges. Each year about 17 million hectares of tropical forest vanish--an area the size of Tunisia or Uruguay. Fish catches are leveling off. Cities are clogged with refuse. Water and air, instead of sustaining life, cause disease.

  9. Effect of population density on growth, biomass and nickel accumulation capacity of Lemna gibba (Lemnaceae).

    PubMed

    Demirezen, Dilek; Aksoy, Ahmet; Uruç, Kadiriye

    2007-01-01

    The effect of population densities on the growth rate and metal (nickel) accumulation capacity of Lemna gibba (Lemnaceae) was studied under laboratory conditions. At high population densities (800 or 1600 seedling per pot), we observed decreasing growth rate with increasing L. gibba density. Especially, at a density of 1600 seedling a pot the net growth rate became negative. This lower growth rate may relate to lower local temperatures and nutrients within L. gibba mats. Biomass production was inhibited by an increase in plant density. Additionally, high population densities caused decreasing nickel accumulation by L. gibba. In this study, a simple model was created according to data obtained from this study. The model has suggested that crowding is an important factor in limitation of growth of L. gibba. PMID:16828144

  10. Protists as opportunistic pathogens: public health impact in the 1990s and beyond.

    PubMed

    Kaplan, J E; Jones, J L; Dykewicz, C A

    2000-01-01

    Protist organisms (protozoa and fungi) have become increasingly prominent as opportunistic pathogens among persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and among organ transplant recipients--two immunocompromised populations that have increased dramatically in the past two decades. Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia continues to be the most common serious opportunistic infection (OI) among HIV-infected persons in the United States, occurring frequently among persons not previously receiving medical care. Toxoplasmosis, cryptococcosis, cryptosporidiosis, and isosporiasis occur frequently in HIV-infected persons in the developing world. Candidiasis and aspergillosis are common OIs in organ transplant recipients. As these populations of immunosuppressed patients continue to expand worldwide new OIs caused by protist pathogens are likely to emerge.

  11. Dynamic-analogue correction of the decadal change of East Asian summer precipitation in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Zhiqiang; Li, Shangfeng; Hu, Po; Shen, Baizhu; Feng, Guolin

    2016-06-01

    This paper systematically evaluates the deviations that appear in the hindcasts of the East Asian summer precipitation (EASP) decadal change in the late 1990s in two global coupled models (BCC_CGCM and BCC_CSM). The possible causes for the deviations between the model hindcasts and observations are analyzed. The results show that the hindcasts of EASP by BCC_CGCM and BCC_CSM deviate from observations, with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) being -0.01 and -0.09 for the two models, respectively. The SST anomalies in North and West Pacific and the SST index values predicted by the two models also deviate from the observations, indicating that inconsistent SST fields may be the key factor leading to the deviation in the prediction of the EASP decadal shift. Thus, a dynamic-analogue scheme is proposed to correct the precipitation hindcasts by using SSTs, where SST and EASP are highly correlated, to select historical analogue cases. Cross validations show that the average ACC of the temporal-latitude distribution of the EASP between the corrected hindcasts and observations is 0.18 for BCC_CGCM and 0.02 for BCC_CSM; both are much higher than the uncorrected hindcasts. Applying the dynamic-analogue correction scheme in both models successfully improves prediction of the EASP decadal change in the late 1990s.

  12. Nature of Persecutors and Their Behaviors in the Delusions of Schizophrenia: Changes between the 1990s and the 2000s

    PubMed Central

    Oh, Hyun Young; Kim, Daeho

    2012-01-01

    Objective Research suggests that the contents of delusions in schizophrenia are influenced by culture and social environment. However, few studies have investigated the chronological change of such delusions within a society. To investigate specifically the changes in the persecutory delusions of schizophrenia that have occurred over time, we compared the nature of the persecutors and their persecutory behaviors among inpatients with schizophrenia. Methods All admissions to the psychiatric unit of Hanyang University Guri Hospital with discharge diagnoses of schizophrenia during two different five-year time frames (1996-2000 and 2006-2010) were reviewed. From their inpatient medical records, we investigated the descriptions of persecutors and their persecutory behaviors in the delusions of 124 patients (54 in the1990s and 72 in the 2000s). Results Overall, persecutory behaviors and nature of persecutors in the delusions of schizophrenia did not differ between the two time frames. However, subgroup analysis revealed that in women but not in men, rejection as a persecutory behavior was significantly higher in the 1990s (p<0.05). Conclusion The ten-year time interval may be too short to find significant changes in delusional content in general. However, our additional finding in women may be a result of the tremendous change in status of Korean women during the last decade. PMID:23251194

  13. Modeling tradeoffs in avian life history traits and consequences for population growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.E.; Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    Variation in population dynamics is inherently related to life history characteristics of species, which vary markedly even within phylogenetic groups such as passerine birds. We computed the finite rate of population change (??) from a matrix projection model and from mark-recapture observations for 23 bird species breeding in northern Arizona. We used sensitivity analyses and a simulation model to separate contributions of different life history traits to population growth rate. In particular we focused on contrasting effects of components of reproduction (nest success, clutch size, number of clutches, and juvenile survival) versus adult survival on ??. We explored how changes in nest success or adult survival coupled to costs in other life history parameters affected ?? over a life history gradient provided by our 23 Arizona species, as well as a broader sample of 121 North American passerine species. We further examined these effects for more than 200 passeriform and piciform populations breeding across North America. Model simulations indicate nest success and juvenile survival exert the largest effects on population growth in species with moderate to high reproductive output, whereas adult survival contributed more to population growth in long-lived species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring breeding success in populations across a broad geographic area provides an important index for identifying neotropical migratory populations at risk of serious population declines and a potential method for identifying large-scale mechanisms regulating population dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The "clean break" revisited: is U.S. population again deconcentrating?

    PubMed

    Long, L; Nucci, A

    1997-08-01

    "The Hoover index, calculated across counties and larger spatial units, is again declining--signalling a renewal of population deconcentration in the United States. After increasing for several decades, the index declined in the 1970s when nonmetropolitan population growth surged past metropolitan-area growth, but the index rose in the 1980s as metropolitan population growth recovered and surpassed nonmetropolitan growth. We update these trends, introducing careful controls for changes in metropolitan-area boundaries, and we incorporate a ¿functional urban region' approach. Although the nonmetropolitan population growth rate is still below the metropolitan rate, we conclude that in the 1990s some features of the ¿turnaround' of the 1970s have returned."

  15. Shanghai: a study on the spatial growth of population and economy in a Chinese metropolitan area.

    PubMed

    Zhu, J

    1995-01-01

    In this study of the growth in population and industry in Shanghai, China, between the 1982 and 1990 censuses, data on administrative divisions was normalized through digitization and spatial analysis. Analysis focused on spatial units, intensity of growth, time period, distance, rate of growth, and direction of spatial growth. The trisection method divided the city into city proper, outskirts, and suburbs. The distance function method considered the distance from center city as a function: exponential, power, trigonometric, logarithmic, and polynomial. Population growth and employment in all sectors increased in the outskirts and suburbs and decreased in the city proper except tertiary sectors. Primary sector employment decreased in all three sections. Employment in the secondary increased faster in the outskirts and suburbs than the total rate of growth of population and employment. In the city secondary sector employment rates decreased faster than total population and employment rates. The tertiary sector had the highest rate of growth in all sections, and employment grew faster than secondary sector rates. Tertiary growth was highest in real estate, finance, and insurance. Industrial growth in the secondary sector was 160.2% in the suburbs, 156.6% in the outskirts, and 80.9% in the city. In the distance function analysis, industry expanded further out than the entire secondary sector. Commerce grew the fastest in areas 15.4 km from center city. Economic growth was faster after economic reforms in 1978. Growth was led by industry and followed by the secondary sector, the tertiary sector, and population. Industrial expansion resulted from inner pressure, political factors controlling size, the social and economic system, and the housing construction and distribution system. Initially sociopsychological factors affected urban concentration. PMID:12288964

  16. Temporal association between childhood leukaemia and population growth in Swiss municipalities.

    PubMed

    Lupatsch, Judith E; Kreis, Christian; Zwahlen, Marcel; Niggli, Felix; Ammann, Roland A; Kuehni, Claudia E; Spycher, Ben D

    2016-08-01

    The population mixing hypothesis proposes that childhood leukaemia (CL) might be a rare complication of a yet unidentified subclinical infection. Large population influxes into previously isolated rural areas may foster localised epidemics of the postulated infection causing a subsequent increase of CL. While marked population growth after a period of stability was central to the formulation of the hypothesis and to the early studies on population mixing, there is a lack of objective criteria to define such growth patterns. We aimed to determine whether periods of marked population growth coincided with increases in the risk of CL in Swiss municipalities. We identified incident cases of CL aged 0-15 years for the period 1985-2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Annual data on population counts in Swiss municipalities were obtained for 1980-2010. As exposures, we defined (1) cumulative population growth during a 5-year moving time window centred on each year (1985-2010) and (2) periods of 'take-off growth' identified by segmented linear regression. We compared CL incidence across exposure categories using Poisson regression and tested for effect modification by degree of urbanisation. Our study included 1500 incident cases and 2561 municipalities. The incident rate ratio (IRR) comparing the highest to the lowest quintile of 5-year population growth was 1.18 (95 % CI 0.96, 1.46) in all municipalities and 1.33 (95 % CI 0.93, 1.92) in rural municipalities (p value interaction 0.36). In municipalities with take-off growth, the IRR comparing the take-off period (>6 % annual population growth) with the initial period of low or negative growth (<2 %) was 2.07 (95 % CI 0.95, 4.51) overall and 2.99 (1.11, 8.05) in rural areas (p interaction 0.52). Our study provides further support for the population mixing hypothesis and underlines the need to distinguish take-off growth from other growth patterns in future research. PMID:27251152

  17. Genetic Parameter Estimation in Seedstock Swine Population for Growth Performances

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Jae Gwan; Cho, Chung Il; Choi, Im Soo; Lee, Seung Soo; Choi, Tae Jeong; Cho, Kwang Hyun; Park, Byoung Ho; Choy, Yun Ho

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters that are to be used for across-herd genetic evaluations of seed stock pigs at GGP level. Performance data with pedigree information collected from swine breeder farms in Korea were provided by Korea Animal Improvement Association (AIAK). Performance data were composed of final body weights at test days and ultrasound measures of back fat thickness (BF), rib eye area (EMA) and retail cut percentage (RCP). Breeds of swine tested were Landrace, Yorkshire and Duroc. Days to 90 kg body weight (DAYS90) were estimated with linear function of age and ADG calculated from body weights at test days. Ultrasound measures were taken with A-mode ultrasound scanners by trained technicians. Number of performance records after censoring outliers and keeping records pigs only born from year 2000 were of 78,068 Duroc pigs, 101,821 Landrace pigs and 281,421 Yorkshire pigs. Models included contemporary groups defined by the same herd and the same seasons of births of the same year, which was regarded as fixed along with the effect of sex for all traits and body weight at test day as a linear covariate for ultrasound measures. REML estimation was processed with REMLF90 program. Heritability estimates were 0.40, 0.32, 0.21 0.39 for DAYS90, ADG, BF, EMA, RCP, respectively for Duroc population. Respective heritability estimates for Landrace population were 0.43, 0.41, 0.22, and 0.43 and for Yorkshire population were 0.36, 0.38, 0.22, and 0.42. Genetic correlation coefficients of DAYS90 with BF, EMA, or RCP were estimated to be 0.00 to 0.09, −0.15 to −0.25, 0.22 to 0.28, respectively for three breeds populations. Genetic correlation coefficients estimated between BF and EMA was −0.33 to −0.39. Genetic correlation coefficient estimated between BF and RCP was high and negative (−0.78 to −0.85) but the environmental correlation coefficients between these two traits was medium and negative (near −0.35), which describes

  18. Molecular-level variation affects population growth in a butterfly metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Hanski, Ilkka; Saccheri, Ilik

    2006-05-01

    The dynamics of natural populations are thought to be dominated by demographic and environmental processes with little influence of intraspecific genetic variation and natural selection, apart from inbreeding depression possibly reducing population growth in small populations. Here we analyse hundreds of well-characterised local populations in a large metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia), which persists in a balance between stochastic local extinctions and recolonisations in a network of 4,000 discrete habitat patches. We show that the allelic composition of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) has a significant effect on the growth of local populations, consistent with previously reported effects of allelic variation on flight metabolic performance and fecundity in the Glanville fritillary and Colias butterflies. The strength and the sign of the molecular effect on population growth are sensitive to the ecological context (the area and spatial connectivity of the habitat patches), which affects genotype-specific gene flow and the influence of migration on the dynamics of local populations. The biological significance of the results for Pgi is underscored by lack of any association between population growth and allelic variation at six other loci typed in the same material. In demonstrating, to our knowledge for the first time, that molecular variation in a candidate gene affects population growth, this study challenges the perception that differential performance of individual genotypes, leading to differential fitness, is irrelevant to population dynamics. These results also demonstrate that the spatial configuration of habitat and spatial dynamics of populations contribute to maintenance of Pgi polymorphism in this species.

  19. Inverse problem for the Verhulst equation of limited population growth with discrete experiment data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azimov, Anvar; Kasenov, Syrym; Nurseitov, Daniyar; Serovajsky, Simon

    2016-08-01

    Verhulst limited growth model with unknown parameters of growth is considered. These parameters are defined by discrete experiment data. This inverse problem is solved with using gradient method with interpolation of data and without it. Approximation of the delta-function is used for the latter case. As an example the bacteria population E.coli is considered.

  20. Rural Renaissance in America? The Revival of Population Growth in Remote Areas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, Peter A.; Wheeler, Judith P.

    Presenting narrative and tabular documentation of the revival of population growth in remote, rural areas and the decline of growth in urban areas, this bulletin describes the characteristics of these shifts, considers their possible causes, and suggests some of the problems and potential benefits. Specifically, this report presents the following:…

  1. The Future and Population: What Will a No-Growth Society Be Like? A Teaching Module.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Washington, DC.

    This teaching module for high school students and adults examines the future of zero population growth in 26 countries by the year 2000. The module contains an essay for students to read, followed by exercises, activities, and discussion questions based on the essay. Objectives include understanding the components of population change, identifying…

  2. Active population growth and immigration hypotheses in Western Europe.

    PubMed

    Feld, S

    2000-03-01

    The paper examines, in respect of 12 Western European countries over a period of 20 years, the widely held view that any decline in their working population should be offset by greater reliance on immigrant labor. This research, based on demographic projections and forecasts regarding labor market participation rates by age and sex for each of the countries concerned, focuses on the two most likely scenarios. It appears that only Italy will be faced with a fall in its working population. All other western countries will either maintain the same level or, more generally, see their workforce grow substantially. Accordingly, the authors may safely assert that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labor will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary. The second part analyses changes in the structure of the demand for labor. The authors deal chiefly with the phenomenon of the concentration of foreign manpower in each sector, its flexibility and mobility in a context of unemployment, as well as the impact of new technologies and globalization on the main determinants of international migration of labor.

  3. The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

    PubMed

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

  4. The Between-Population Genetic Architecture of Growth, Maturation, and Plasticity in Atlantic Salmon

    PubMed Central

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding. PMID:24473933

  5. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  6. [Population growth in Plasencia in the nineteenth century].

    PubMed

    Sanchez De La Calle, J A

    1993-01-01

    "Using sources such as parish registers, civil registers, records of the town hall, inquiries, [censuses] and list of inhabitants, we have been able to confirm the existence of four different stages in the demographic development of Plasencia [Spain]. The first one, between 1800 and 1815, is characterized by a scarce growing.... The second one, between 1816 and 1839, shows a certain increase which is restrained at the end of the 30s because of some epidemic illness (cholera and various fevers). The period between 1840 and 1871 is a stage of slow growing due to many subsistence crises. The fourth stage, 1872-1899, continues the same outline with a great rising of mortality, which does not prevent the rising of population in Plasencia caused by a high rate of inmigration." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

  7. Human fetal weight and placental weight growth curves. A mathematical analysis from a population at sea level.

    PubMed

    Bonds, D R; Mwape, B; Kumar, S; Gabbe, S G

    1984-01-01

    A mathematical analysis of human fetal and placental growth curves was made on data collected prospectively from a population at sea level. Both the fetal and placental growth curves can best be described by a form of the logistic equation inhibited growth model. The fetal growth rate reaches its maximum approximately 4 weeks after the placental growth rate has reached its maximum. Growth rate constants were calculated for several populations at various altitudes. PMID:6733167

  8. [Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities].

    PubMed

    Tian, X Y

    1981-02-01

    In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.

  9. The effects of economic and population growth on national saving and inequality.

    PubMed

    Deaton, A S; Paxson, C H

    1997-02-01

    This is a progress report on ongoing research into the effects of economic and population growth on national saving rates and inequality. The theoretical basis for the investigation is the life cycle model of saving and inequality. We report evidence that is conditional on the validity of the model, as well as evidence that casts doubt on it. Using time series of cross-sectional household surveys from Taiwan, Thailand, Britain, and the United States, we show that it is possible to force a life cycle interpretation on the data on consumption, income, and saving, but that the evidence is not consistent with large rate-of-growth effects, whereby economic and population growth enhances rates of national saving. The well-established cross-country link between economic growth and saving cannot be attributed to life cycle saving, nor will changes in economic or population growth exert large effects on saving within individual countries. There is evidence in favor of the life cycle model's prediction that within-cohort inequality of consumption and of total income--though not necessarily inequality of earnings--should increase with the age of the cohort. Decreases in the population growth rate redistribute population toward older, more unequal, cohorts, and can increase national inequality. We provide calculations on the magnitude of these effects.

  10. Networking of networks: a 1990s approach to information for development.

    PubMed

    1992-06-01

    The ability to access and use information is increasingly becoming a crucial determinant of a country's ability to achieve sustainable socioeconomic development. Countries which are able to manage and utilize data and information have a competitive advantage over other nations. Countries which fail to tap into the growing global knowledge base, develop a complementary local knowledge base, promote the dissemination and use of knowledge, and invest in institutional and technical human capital will, however, simply remain or fall behind the competition. Many developing countries lack appropriate strategy, financial support for information centers and networks, timely adoption and use of new technology, adequate telecommunications infrastructure, and coordination at national and regional levels. Further, telecommunications services are costly, research on user group behavior is inadequate, few technically skilled people are available, and governments fail to recognize the importance of joining international information networks. Policy development, maternal-child health and family planning, and information, education, and communication are 3 of the most significant population issues worldwide. To best address these issues, international development agencies are urged to veer from providing capital and to directly support greater access to information and enhanced knowledge leading to sustainable national development. Thus far the UN has helped create global information systems in certain areas, and regional cooperative information systems are being developed. ESCAP has taken the lead in Asia and the Pacific. Gradually, population libraries and information centers are becoming computerized. Greater effort is recommended to recover costs for services and products. Further, donors and country organizations should stress that information is only useful as far as it is used.

  11. Population growth rate determinants for Arbacia: Evaluating ecological relevance of toxicity test endpoints

    SciTech Connect

    Nacci, D.; Gleason, T.; Munns, W.R. Jr.

    1995-12-31

    A population dynamics model for the sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, was recently developed incorporating life stage endpoints frequently measured in acute and chronic toxicity studies. Model elasticity analysis was used to demonstrate that population growth rate was influenced most by adult survival and least by early life stage success, calling into question the ecological relevance of results from standardized Arbacia fertilization and larval development toxicity tests. Two approaches were used to continue this evaluation. Actual and hypothetical dose-response curves for toxicant exposures over multiple life stages were used to evaluate contributions to population growth rate of stage-specific toxicant effects. Additionally, relationships between critical life stages were developed from laboratory data for Arbacia. The results of this analysis underscore the importance of understanding both endpoint sensitivity to toxicants and sensitivity of population growth rate to test endpoints in determining the ecological relevance of toxicity tests results.

  12. The ocean blues. Navigating the course of population growth.

    PubMed

    Sarkar, D

    1996-01-01

    Oceans and their role in environmental balance are discussed in this article. Coastal waters within 200 miles from land are identified as providing over half the ocean's total biological productivity and supply of nearly all of the world's fish catch. Almost 3.6 billion people live in coastal areas or within 90 miles of coastal waters, which accounts for about 66% of world population. Coastal land areas account for about 8% of the earth's total land area. 8.3 billion people are expected by 2025 to live in coastal areas. 9 of the 10 largest cities in the world are located on coasts. 7 of the 10 largest cities in the US are coastal cities (54% of the US population or 142 million people). Almost all of the marine pollution is derived from land-based sources, such as sewage, nutrients, sediments, litter, and plastics. Mangroves in coastal waters have been reduced by about 50% to about 90,000 sq. miles worldwide. Global consumption of fish is responsible for depleting fish supplies and the loss of mangroves due to aquaculture of shrimp or other seafood. The US National Fisheries Service is cited for its report that 67 of the 156 fish stocks are overexploited. About 1 billion people, mostly in developing countries, rely on fish as their main food source. If imbalances in demand and supply continue, the rising price of fish and seafood will threaten the lives of about 1 billion or more people. Numerous international and national actions have been taken in order to protect supplies and reduce pollution. Sound resource management practices need to be instituted. Small and large fisheries can begin by reducing the 27 million tons of unintentional fish captures and by converting 29 million tons of fish used for animal feed into food for human consumption. Management of US coastal lands in most coastal states, with the exception of California and Rhode Island, is weak. Maryland has adopted a community-level approach for management of the Chesapeake Bay. Other environmental

  13. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len

    2016-05-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor

  14. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in tur

  15. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

  16. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  17. Sexual Reproduction in a Simple Growth Population Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Carlos Gentil Oro; Santos, Marcio

    2012-05-01

    One of the most important characteristics in the survival of a species is related to the kind of reproduction responsible for the offspring generation. However, only in the last years the role played by sexual reproduction has been investigated. Then, for a better understanding of this kind of process we introduce, in this work, a surface reaction model that describes the role of the sexual reproduction. In our model two different elements of the species, representing male and female, can interact to reproduce a new element. The sex of this new element is chosen with a given probability and in order to take into account the mortality rate we introduce another kind of individual. The value of the spatial density of this element remains constant during the time evolution of the system. The model is studied using Monte Carlo simulations and mean field approximation. Depending on the values of the control parameters of the model, the system can attain two stationary states: In one of them the population survives and in the other it can be extinguished. Besides, accordingly to our results, the phase diagram of the model shows a discontinuous transition between these two states.

  18. The many growth rates and elasticities of populations in random environments.

    PubMed

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C; Pascarella, John B

    2003-10-01

    Despite considerable interest in the dynamics of populations subject to temporally varying environments, alternate population growth rates and their sensitivities remain incompletely understood. For a Markovian environment, we compare and contrast the meanings of the stochastic growth rate (lambdaS), the growth rate of average population (lambdaM), the growth rate for average transition rates (lambdaA), and the growth rate of an aggregate represented by a megamatrix (shown here to equal lambdaM). We distinguish these growth rates by the averages that define them. We illustrate our results using data on an understory shrub in a hurricane-disturbed landscape, employing a range of hurricane frequencies. We demonstrate important differences among growth rates: lambdaS lambdaM. We show that stochastic elasticity, ESij, and megamatrix elasticity, EMij, describe a complex perturbation of both means and variances of rates by the same proportion. Megamatrix elasticities respond slightly and stochastic elasticities respond strongly to changing the frequency of disturbance in the habitat (in our example, the frequency of hurricanes). The elasticity EAij of lambdaA does not predict changes in the other elasticities. Because ES, although commonly utilized, is difficult to interpret, we introduce elasticities with a more direct interpretation: ESmu for perturbations of means and ESsigma for variances. We argue that a fundamental tool for studying selection pressures in varying environments is the response of growth rate to vital rates in all habitat states.

  19. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    PubMed

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

    2010-10-05

    Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  20. Biopharmaceutical Innovation System in China: System Evolution and Policy Transitions (Pre-1990s-2010s)

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Hao; Chung, Chao-Chen

    2015-01-01

    Background: This article sets up the initial discussion of the evolution of biopharmaceutical innovation in China through the perspective of sectoral innovation system (SIS). Methods: Two data sources including archival documentary data and field interviews were used in this study. Archival documentary data was collected from China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). In addition, industrial practitioners and leading researchers in academia were interviewed. Results: Biopharmaceutical in China was established through international knowledge transfer. The firms played more active role in commercializing biopharmaceutical in China though universities and research institutes were starting to interact with local firms and make contribution to biopharmaceutical industrialization. The transition of the Chinese government’s policies continuously shapes the evolution of biopharmaceutical sector. Policies have been dramatic changes before and after 1980s to encourage developing biopharmaceutical as a competitive industry for China. Conclusion: A SIS for biopharmaceutical has been shaped in China. However, currently biopharmaceutical is still a small sector in China, and for the further growth of the industry more synthetic policies should be implemented. Not only the policy supports towards the research and innovation of biopharmaceuticals in the early stage of development should be attended, but also commercialization of biopharmaceutical products in the later stage of sales. PMID:26673466

  1. Metal concentrations in Maryland`s shellfish: 1970s--1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Murphy, D.L.

    1995-12-31

    Maryland has been monitoring arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury and zinc in bivalve shellfish from state waters since the 1960s. The primary bivalve species monitored in Maryland waters are the oyster, Crassostrea virginica and the softshell clam, Mya arenaria. These data have been evaluated for temporal trends. In order to insure that temporal evaluations be based upon data produced using comparable analytical methods, the time period evaluated is not the same for all analytes. For example, while most evaluations are for the period 1974 through 1994, arsenic data were evaluated for the period 1980 through 1994. Data for oyster tissue indicate declines in levels of mercury, cadmium, arsenic, copper and zinc on the order of 70--90%. The major portion of these reductions occurred prior to 1985. These declines are evident from data collected from Maryland`s lower eastern shore, a relatively remote area, as well as from waters closer to larger population centers. Past detection levels for lead and chromium were insufficiently low to detect temporal changes.

  2. Disparities in child health in the Arab region during the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Khawaja, Marwan; Dawns, Jesse; Meyerson-Knox, Sonya; Yamout, Rouham

    2008-01-01

    Background While Arab countries showed an impressive decline in child mortality rates during the past few decades, gaps in mortality by gender and socioeconomic status persisted. However, large socioeconomic disparities in child health were evident in almost every country in the region. Methods Using available tabulations and reliable micro data from national household surveys, data for 18 Arab countries were available for analysis. In addition to infant and child mortality, child health was measured by nutritional status, vaccination, and Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI). Within-country disparities in child health by gender, residence (urban/rural) and maternal educational level were described. Child health was also analyzed by macro measures of development, including per capita GDP (PPP), female literacy rates, urban population and doctors per 100,000 people. Results Gender disparities in child health using the above indicators were less evident, with most showing clear female advantage. With the exception of infant and child survival, gender disparities demonstrated a female advantage, as well as a large urban advantage and an overall advantage for mothers with secondary education. Surprisingly, the countries' rankings with respect to disparities were not associated with various macro measures of development. Conclusion The tenacity of pervasive intra-country socioeconomic disparities in child health calls for attention by policy makers and health practitioners. PMID:19021903

  3. Palliative care by family physicians in the 1990s. Resilience amid reform.

    PubMed Central

    Burge, F.; McIntyre, P.; Twohig, P.; Cummings, I.; Kaufman, D.; Frager, G.; Pollett, A.

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To explore issues family physicians face in providing community-based palliative care to their patients in the context of a changing health care system. DESIGN: Focus groups. SETTING: Small (< 10,000 population), medium-sized (10,000 to 50,000), and large (> 50,000) communities in Nova Scotia. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-five men and women physicians with varying years of practice experience in both solo and group practices. METHOD: A semistructured approach was used, asking physicians to reflect on recent palliative care experiences in order to explore issues of care. MAIN FINDINGS: Five themes emerged from the discussions: resources needed, availability of family support, time and money supporting physicians' activities, symptom control for patients, and physicians' emotional reactions to caring for dying patients. CONCLUSION: With downsizing of hospitals and greater emphasis on community-based care, the issues identified in this study will need attention, particularly in designing an integrated service delivery model for palliative care. PMID:11723593

  4. Causes of the Decline in Cigarette Smoking Among African American Youths From the 1970s to the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Foulds, Jonathan

    2011-01-01

    Adult cigarette smoking prevalence trends among African Americans (AAs) and Whites are similar. However, during the decline in youth smoking that occurred between the mid-1970s and the early 1990s, the drop in smoking rates among AA adolescents was more than double that among Whites. We examined the evidence for potential explanations for this phenomenon. On the basis of our findings, we propose that racial differences in parental attitudes, religious ties, negative perceptions and experiences of the health effects of smoking, worsening poverty, increased use of food stamps, and price sensitivity were major factors contributing to the more rapid decrease in and continued lower rates of smoking among AA youths. PMID:21852655

  5. CEO expectation: the Star Wars materiel manager of the 1990s, or C-3PO as role model.

    PubMed

    Zenty, T F; Olson, M R

    1993-05-01

    Materiel-intensive expenditures account for a significant portion of all hospital costs, second only to salaries and wages, yet materiel managers may often be overlooked as key members of the management team. This is alarming since the potential exists for materiel managers to impact annual savings of hundreds of thousands of dollars by operating efficient departments. Materiel managers have a tremendous opportunity to enhance their image and improve hospital productivity in the coming decade. The challenges of the 1990s will stretch materiel managers' skills toward enhancing their professionalism and achieving the expectations of themselves and top management. If materiel managers will effectively utilize (C3)PO they will increase their educational levels, continue to learn new skills, maintain a customer-oriented management style, exercise creativity, develop and adhere to standards, and be proactive in their responsibilities. The benefits of their success will be felt by patients, hospitals, the industry, and materiel managers everywhere.

  6. State policy decisions in the 1990s with implications for the financial well-being of later-life families.

    PubMed

    Hill, Gretchen J

    2006-01-01

    This study explores trends and patterns in states' policy decisions affecting the economic well-being of later-life individuals and families in the United States in recent decades, focusing on the 1990s. Rules were selected from the areas of inheritance, estate taxes, homestead exemptions, Medicaid eligibility, estate recovery, and filial responsibility. Results indicate an increasing use of a broad definition of family, one implying that spouses, the nuclear family, extended kin, step-relations, and sometimes in-laws constitute an ongoing collective whose members share economic resources and risks over their lives and beyond. Despite this global trend, states varied in their rules addressing intrafamilial financial obligations and families' accountability to states. While some seemed interested in facilitating the conservation of familial resources, others seemed willing to minimize public assistance while coercing kin into accepting financial responsibility for one another. Research was suggested to answer questions raised by this study.

  7. Expectations and beliefs in science communication: Learning from three European gene therapy discussions of the early 1990s.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Gitte

    2016-04-01

    There is widespread agreement that the potential of gene therapy was oversold in the early 1990s. This study, however, comparing written material from the British, Danish and German gene therapy discourses of the period finds significant differences: Over-optimism was not equally strong everywhere; gene therapy was not universally hyped. Against that background, attention is directed towards another area of variation in the material: different basic assumptions about science and scientists. Exploring such culturally rooted assumptions and beliefs and their possible significance to science communication practices, it is argued that deep beliefs may constitute drivers of hype that are particularly difficult to deal with. To participants in science communication, the discouragement of hype, viewed as a practical-ethical challenge, can be seen as a learning exercise that includes critical attention to internalised beliefs.

  8. Environmental monitoring report for commercial low-level radioactive waste disposal sites (1960`s through 1990`s)

    SciTech Connect

    1996-11-01

    During the time period covered in this report (1960`s through early 1990`s), six commercial low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facilities have been operated in the US. This report provides environmental monitoring data collected at each site. The report summarizes: (1) each site`s general design, (2) each site`s inventory, (3) the environmental monitoring program for each site and the data obtained as the program has evolved, and (4) what the program has indicated about releases to off-site areas, if any, including a statement of the actual health and safety significance of any release. A summary with conclusions is provided at the end of each site`s chapter. The six commercial LLRW disposal sites discussed are located near: Sheffield, Illinois; Maxey Flats, Kentucky; Beatty, Nevada; West Valley, New York; Barnwell, South Carolina; Richland, Washington.

  9. When 'drugs' become 'drugs': issues of pharmaceutical abuse in France from the 1960s to the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Marchant, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Since the 1970s, media frenzies about drug addiction have focused mainly on illicit drugs taken by rebellious or marginalised addicts, relegating iatrogenic drug abuse, and policies and problems linked to psychotropic pharmaceuticals available by prescription or over-the-counter to the shadows. In this article I go beyond the division between illicit drugs and medicines still configuring both public representations and historiography: using archival materials from the 1960s-1990s in France, I highlight some blind spots in drug history. Firstly I demonstrate the role of pharmaceutical abuse in the career of addicts, and then examine regulation policies, which are the dark side, however complementary, of drug policies and prohibition. Finally, I analyse the role of physicians and pharmacists in this control, and discuss the various professional debates relating to the legal supply of psychoactive drugs. In all these issues, the frame of the Cold War context will also be highlighted. PMID:26054215

  10. Toxicology across scales: Cell population growth in vitro predicts reduced fish growth

    PubMed Central

    Stadnicka-Michalak, Julita; Schirmer, Kristin; Ashauer, Roman

    2015-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment of chemicals is essential but often relies on ethically controversial and expensive methods. We show that tests using cell cultures, combined with modeling of toxicological effects, can replace tests with juvenile fish. Hundreds of thousands of fish at this developmental stage are annually used to assess the influence of chemicals on growth. Juveniles are more sensitive than adult fish, and their growth can affect their chances to survive and reproduce. Thus, to reduce the number of fish used for such tests, we propose a method that can quantitatively predict chemical impact on fish growth based on in vitro data. Our model predicts reduced fish growth in two fish species in excellent agreement with measured in vivo data of two pesticides. This promising step toward alternatives to fish toxicity testing is simple, inexpensive, and fast and only requires in vitro data for model calibration. PMID:26601229

  11. Top-Down Assessment of the Asian Carbon Budget Since the Mid 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, R.; Canadell, J.; Patra, P. K.; Chevallier, F.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Law, R. M.; Ziehn, T.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; Peters, W.; Ganshin, A.; Zhuravlev, R.; Maki, T.; Nakamura, T.; Shirai, T.; Ishizawa, M.; Saeki, T.; Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principle driver of anthropogenic climate change. Asia is an important region for the global carbon budget, with four of the world's ten largest national emitters of CO2, but it is also a region with considerable uncertainty in both anthropogenic emissions and land biosphere fluxes of CO2. Furthermore, Asia has undergone rapid economic growth over the past two decades, which has been associated with large increases in fossil fuel emissions, 190% for India and 240% for China between 1990 and 2010. We have used an ensemble of seven atmospheric CO2 inversions and three standard fossil fuel and cement fluxes, based on the inventories of CDIAC, EDGAR and IEA, to determine the land biosphere fluxes for East, South and Southeast Asia, and to ascertain the robustness and overall uncertainty of the results. We find that the East Asian land biosphere was on average a carbon sink of -0.35 ± 0.37 PgC y-1 (median and MAD), or equivalently 17 ± 18% of East Asia's fossil fuel and cement emissions, over 1996 - 2012. Between 1996 - 2001 and 2008 - 2012, we find an increase in the sink of 0.74 ± 0.28 PgC y-1, however the magnitude of this is contingent on the assumed increase in fossil fuel emissions. For South Asia, we find that on average the land biosphere was close to carbon neutral, -0.01 ± 0.20 PgC y-1 over 1996 - 2012 and that there was no significant trend. For Southeast Asia, we find no evidence for a trend in the land biosphere flux over 1996 - 2012 and we cannot determine any difference from carbon neutrality (as assumed a priori by most inversions) with a flux of 0.06 ± 0.29 PgC y-1, throughout this period despite extensive tropical deforestation.

  12. Climatic warming and accompanying changes in the ecological regime of the Black Sea during 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oguz, Temel; Cokacar, Tulay; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola; Ducklow, Hugh W.

    2003-09-01

    The Black Sea ecosystem is shown to experience abrupt shifts in its all trophic levels from primary producers to apex predators in 1995-1996. It arises as a manifestation of concurrent changes in its physical climate introduced by intensive warming of its surface waters as well as abrupt increases in the mean sea level and the net annual mean fresh water flux. The warming is evident in the annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) data by a continuous rise at a rate of ˜0.25°C per year, following a strong cooling phase in 1991-1993. The most intense warming event with ˜2°C increase in the SST took place during winters of the 1994-1996 period. It also coincides with 4 cm yr-1 net sea level rise in the basin, and substantial change in the annual mean net fresh water flux from 150 km3 yr-1 in 1993 to 420 km3 yr-1 in 1997. The subsurface signature of warming is marked by a gradual depletion of the Cold Intermediate Layer (characterized by T < 8°C) throughout the basin during the same period. Winters of the warming phase are characterized by weaker vertical turbulent mixing and upwelling velocity, stronger stratification and, subsequently, reduced upward nutrient supply from the nutricline. From 1996 onward, the major late winter-early spring peak of the classical annual phytoplankton biomass structure observed prior to mid-90s was, therefore, either weakened or disappeared altogether depending on local meteorological and oceanographic conditions during each of these years. The effect of bottom-up limited unfavorable phytoplankton growth is reflected at higher trophic levels (e.g., mesozooplankton, gelatinous macrozooplankton, and pelagic fishes) in the form of their reduced stocks after 1995.

  13. Eosinophils in the 1990s: new perspectives on their role in health and disease.

    PubMed

    Wardlaw, A J

    1994-08-01

    Eosinophils are characterized by their unique crystalloid granules that contain four basic proteins--MBP, ECP, EDN and EPO. The cell has many common features with neutrophils but, unlike that cell type, eosinophils utilize VLA-4/VCAM-1 as an adherence pathway and have a number of other receptors not shared by neutrophils. These include recognition units for IgE (distinct from CD23), and receptors for IL-5, IL-3 and RANTES. Following stimulation with a variety of agents, eosinophils preferentially elaborate LTC4 as the major 5-lipoxygenase product of arachidonic acid and produce substantial amounts of PAF. Of particular interest is the ability of eosinophils to synthesize a number of cytokines. Thus eosinophils have marked pro-inflammatory potential. There is now convincing evidence that eosinophilia is T-cell dependent. The Th2-type cell, which selectively secretes IL-5 and IL-4, seems particularly involved. IL-5, IL-3 and GM-CSF are required for eosinophil maturation, and cause activation and prolonged survival of the mature cell. IL-5 is unique in that it promotes terminal differentiation of the committed eosinophil precursor and in vivo in mice appears to be sufficient on its own for eosinophil growth from uncommited stem cells. IL-4 selectively upregulates VCAM-1 expression on endothelial cells thus augmenting VLA-4-dependent eosinophil adhesion. The role of eosinophils in disease is complex but in general their numbers are increased in helminthic parasitic disease and atopic allergy and asthma. Eosinophil products can produce many of the pathological features of asthma, and helminthic larvae coated with immunoglobulin or complement are particularly susceptible to eosinophil-mediated cytotoxicity. Eosinopenia is often related to acute inflammation or stress. PMID:7937446

  14. [Public policies in the decade of the 1990's: the case of nutrition].

    PubMed

    Gutierrez, A T

    1991-01-01

    In Venezuela, mortality related to nutritional deficiencies was low with a total of 178 cases in 1973 and 391 cases in 1981, affecting mainly children under the age of 12 months. In 1988 the System of Nutritional Surveillance (SISVAN) reported that the majority of hospital admissions with serious nutritional deficit were those with inadequate weight-height ratio: 37.0% of children under 1 year of age in 1988 and 46.4% in 1989. In 1988 SISVAN reported a decrease in the weight-height deficit in children under 10 years of age: 28,609 children in 1988 and 28,548 in 1989; whereas the age group from 2 to 6 years was the most affected by such deficit. Overall, however, there had been a slowdown in the improvement in child nutrition with the increase of grave malnutrition according to 1988 and 1989 data. 1990 and 1991 data showed an improved situation as a result of better use of state medical services by families and the milk program, indicating a decrease of the weight-height ratio deficit in children under 10 years of age: 18.0% in the first trimester of 1990 and 14.0% in 1991, along with the reduction of grave deficit from 0.9% in 1990 to 0.6% in 1991. Feeding as a determinant aspect of nutrition deals with the precarious nature of existing supplies, the diminution of acquisitive capacity, and the habits of consumption. The initiatives of the state for overcoming the situation include the basic basket of foodstuffs, direct subsidies to the low income population, and programs that fight nutritional deficiencies of children, such as the Expanded Maternal-Child Nutrition Program (PAMI). Households of daily care constitute the regional initiatives and the ability of the state to maintain these programs. The responses of urban centers before this initiative included a successful experiment, the center of education and nutritional recovery, and the child survival program.

  15. Important recent advances in the practice of health risk assessment: Implications for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Paustenbach, D.J. )

    1989-12-01

    Health risk assessments have been so widely adopted in the United States that their conclusions are a major factor in many environmental decisions. The procedure by which these assessments are conducted is one which has evolved over the past 10-15 years and a number of short-comings have been widely recognized. Recent significant advances for more accurately estimating the risks posed by environmental chemicals are likely to have a dramatic effect on the regulation of many substances. Each of the four portions of risk assessment (hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) has undergone significant refinement since 1985. This paper reviews some of the specific changes and explains the likely benefits as well as the implications. Emphasis is placed on the improved techniques for (a) identifying those chemicals which may pose a human cancer or developmental hazard, (b) using statistical approaches which account for the distribution of interindividual biological differences, (c) using lognormal statistics when interpreting environmental data, (d) using physiologically based pharmacokinetic models for estimating delivered dose and for scaling up rodent data, (e) using biologically based cancer models to account for the seven or more apparently different mechanisms of chemical carcinogenesis, (f) describing the severity of the public health risks by considering those portions of the population exposed to various concentrations of a contaminant, and (g) reviewing how criteria for acceptable risk have been influenced by the number of exposed persons. The net benefit of these improvements should be a reduction in the uncertainty inherent in current estimates of the health risks posed by low level exposure to carcinogens and developmental toxicants.233 references.

  16. Important recent advances in the practice of health risk assessment: implications for the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Paustenbach, D J

    1989-12-01

    Health risk assessments have been so widely adopted in the United States that their conclusions are a major factor in many environmental decisions. The procedure by which these assessments are conducted is one which has evolved over the past 10-15 years and a number of short-comings have been widely recognized. Unfortunately, improvements in the process have often occurred more slowly than advancements in technology or scientific knowledge. Recent significant advances for more accurately estimating the risks posed by environmental chemicals are likely to have a dramatic effect on the regulation of many substances. Each of the four portions of risk assessment (hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) has undergone significant refinement since 1985. This paper reviews some of the specific changes and explains the likely benefits as well as the implications. Emphasis is placed on the improved techniques for (a) identifying those chemicals which may pose a human cancer or developmental hazard, (b) using statistical approaches which account for the distribution of interindividual biological differences, (c) using lognormal statistics when interpreting environmental data, (d) using physiologically based pharmacokinetic models for estimating delivered dose and for scaling up rodent data, (e) using biologically based cancer models to account for the seven or more apparently different mechanisms of chemical carcinogenesis, (f) describing the severity of the public health risks by considering those portions of the population exposed to various concentrations of a contaminant, and (g) reviewing how criteria for acceptable risk have been influenced by the number of exposed persons. The net benefit of these improvements should be a reduction in the uncertainty inherent in current estimates of the health risks posed by low level exposure to carcinogens and developmental toxicants.

  17. The 1990s Warming in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre in Hindcasts of the MiKlip Decadal Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Höschel, Ines; Grieger, Jens; Rust, Henning; Ulbrich, Uwe; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2015-04-01

    The oceans and their multiyear variability are a crucial factor for decadal predictions. The focus of the presentation is on the observed shift in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre during the 1990s from cooler conditions in the preceding decade to warmer conditions thereafter. This increase of up to 1°C is linked to changes in the mean climate over the North Atlantic region. Therefore, it is a suitable test case for decadal prediction systems. We examine, whether ensemble predictions from the German decadal prediction system MiKlip reproduce the shift in SST and the associated impacts on the mean conditions of temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation. The MiKlip-system is based on the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM6/MPI-OM. Ensemble predictions from four versions of the system are analyzed. They differ in resolution, in the assimilated data for the initial conditions and in the initialization scheme. A variety of reanalysis and observational data sets are used for verification to account for uncertainties in the reference data. The initialized decadal predictions reproduce the shift in the 1990s of about the right amplitude at different lead times while the uninitialized simulations produce a cooling of the subpolar gyre. Compared to observations, the region with the strongest warming in the North Atlantic is located too far to the east and the warming hole is too narrow and shifted northwards. The observations show an associated pattern in the Pacific SST which resembles a la Nina-like pattern or a cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. This Pacific pattern is reproduced by the MiKlip-system, but not in all ensemble predictions.

  18. Sensitizing events as trigger for discursive renewal and institutional change in Flanders’ environmental health approach, 1970s-1990s

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Sensitizing events may trigger and stimulate discursive renewal. From a discursive institutional perspective, changing discourses are the driving force behind the institutional dynamics of policy domains. Theoretically informed by discursive institutionalism, this article assesses the impact of a series of four sensitizing events that triggered serious environmental health concerns in Flanders between the 1970s till the 1990s, and led onto the gradual institutionalization of a Flemish environmental health arrangement. Methods The Policy Arrangement Approach is used as the analytical framework to structure the empirical results of the historical analysis based on document analysis and in-depth interviews. Results Until the 1990s, environmental health was characterized as an ad hoc policy field in Flanders, where agenda setting was based on sensitizing events – also referred to as incident-driven. Each of these events contributed to a gradual rethinking of the epistemological discourses about environmental health risks and uncertainties. These new discourses were the driving forces behind institutional dynamics as they gradually resulted in an increased need for: 1) long-term, policy-oriented, interdisciplinary environmental health research; 2) policy coordination and integration between the environmental and public health policy fields; and 3) new forms of science-policy interactions based on mutual learning. These changes are desirable in order to detect environmental health problems as fast as possible, to react immediately and communicate appropriately. Conclusions The series of four events that triggered serious environmental health concerns in Flanders provided the opportunity to rethink and re-organize the current affairs concerning environmental health and gradually resulted into the institutionalization of a Flemish environmental health arrangement. PMID:23758822

  19. Population growth and social change: a note on rural society.

    PubMed

    Barnabas, A P

    1974-01-01

    Changing social conditons, particularly in rural areas, often create a feeling of normlessness. For such major changes as family limitation to be accepted in rural India, those involved must understand the total social change which will be necessary. In rural areas today the desire for motherhood is a matter of being accepted. A barren woman suffers social ostracism; folk tales tell of even animals refusing to eat a meal prepared by a barren woman. A women with a large family is particularly respected, especially if they are well provided for. The other reasons given for having large numbers of children are family survival, care in old age, increase in family income, to get more share in the property, to follow the community pattern, and to make the home happier. There is a rationale for most of these. High infant and child mortality account for the family survival, The only security the parents have is the children. More children increase the family share in a joint-family land-holding. Raising the age at marriage for girls has often been suggested as a population control measure, but what is the girl to do until 19? Rural parents do not feel their obligations to their daughter have been discharged until she is married and it is the parents who are blamed if no arrangments have been made. The idea of her becoming educated is not socially acceptable and rural boys are reluctant to marry educated girls. India's values pertaining to divorce, widow remarriage, and abortion are already undergoing change. Migration to the cities is bringing about change. Looking to the cities may bring about modernization, but the fact that the young men are the ones moving away is leading a lack of leadership in the villages. To bring about the social conditions favorable to modernization agriculture should be modernized, reducing the need for labor; factories should be built in rural areas to take up this slack in agricultural employment, and perhaps it would become acceptable for

  20. Modeling circadian clock-cell cycle interaction effects on cell population growth rates.

    PubMed

    El Cheikh, R; Bernard, S; El Khatib, N

    2014-12-21

    The circadian clock and the cell cycle are two tightly coupled oscillators. Recent analytical studies have shown counter-intuitive effects of circadian gating of the cell cycle on growth rates of proliferating cells which cannot be explained by a molecular model or a population model alone. In this work, we present a combined molecular-population model that studies how coupling the circadian clock to the cell cycle, through the protein WEE1, affects a proliferating cell population. We show that the cell cycle can entrain to the circadian clock with different rational period ratios and characterize multiple domains of entrainment. We show that coupling increases the growth rate for autonomous periods of the cell cycle around 24 h and above 48 h. We study the effect of mutation of circadian genes on the growth rate of cells and show that disruption of the circadian clock can lead to abnormal proliferation. Particularly, we show that Cry 1, Cry 2 mutations decrease the growth rate of cells, Per 2 mutation enhances it and Bmal 1 knockout increases it for autonomous periods of the cell cycle less than 21 h and decreases it elsewhere. Combining a molecular model to a population model offers new insight on the influence of the circadian clock on the growth of a cell population. This can help chronotherapy which takes benefits of physiological rhythms to improve anti-cancer efficacy and tolerance to drugs by administering treatments at a specific time of the day.

  1. Comparison of individual-based modeling and population approaches for prediction of foodborne pathogens growth.

    PubMed

    Augustin, Jean-Christophe; Ferrier, Rachel; Hezard, Bernard; Lintz, Adrienne; Stahl, Valérie

    2015-02-01

    Individual-based modeling (IBM) approach combined with the microenvironment modeling of vacuum-packed cold-smoked salmon was more effective to describe the variability of the growth of a few Listeria monocytogenes cells contaminating irradiated salmon slices than the traditional population models. The IBM approach was particularly relevant to predict the absence of growth in 25% (5 among 20) of artificially contaminated cold-smoked salmon samples stored at 8 °C. These results confirmed similar observations obtained with smear soft cheese (Ferrier et al., 2013). These two different food models were used to compare the IBM/microscale and population/macroscale modeling approaches in more global exposure and risk assessment frameworks taking into account the variability and/or the uncertainty of the factors influencing the growth of L. monocytogenes. We observed that the traditional population models significantly overestimate exposure and risk estimates in comparison to IBM approach when contamination of foods occurs with a low number of cells (<100 per serving). Moreover, the exposure estimates obtained with the population model were characterized by a great uncertainty. The overestimation was mainly linked to the ability of IBM to predict no growth situations rather than the consideration of microscale environment. On the other hand, when the aim of quantitative risk assessment studies is only to assess the relative impact of changes in control measures affecting the growth of foodborne bacteria, the two modeling approach gave similar results and the simplest population approach was suitable.

  2. Age, growth and mortality in four populations of the boring bivalve Lithophaga patagonica from Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagur, María; Richardson, Christopher A.; Gutiérrez, Jorge L.; Arribas, Lorena P.; Doldan, M. Socorro; Palomo, M. Gabriela

    2013-08-01

    The boring bivalve Lithophaga patagonica (d'Orbigny, 1842) is a locally abundant inhabitant of hard substrata in the coastal waters of the Southwestern Atlantic. In this paper, we describe the growth, age and mortality of three intertidal rock-boring populations of L. patagonica and one subtidal oyster shell (Ostrea puelchana) boring population. An analysis of acetate peel replicas of shell sections showed that L. patagonica slows down its growth during autumn-winter, which leads to changes in the direction and rate of shell deposition and the formation of conspicuous annual (low temperature induced) clefts in the shell margin. Cleft counts and Von Bertalanffy growth analyses indicated that maximum age varies from 4 years in the oyster-boring population to 13 years in a rock-boring one (longevity estimates varied between 6.5 and 15 years, respectively). Maximum asymptotic length (L∞) and Von Bertalanffy growth constant (K) were also variable between populations (L∞ between 14.76 and 36.95 mm and K from 0.20 to 0.90 yr- 1 respectively). Mortality rates were higher at the two southernmost populations. Type (rock vs. oyster), composition and hardness of the substrata are likely the main factors controlling the observed differences between populations.

  3. Tropical forest cover change in the 1990s and options for future monitoring.

    PubMed

    Mayaux, Philippe; Holmgren, Peter; Achard, Frédéric; Eva, Hugh; Stibig, Hans-Jürgen; Branthomme, Anne

    2005-02-28

    Despite the importance of the world's humid tropical forests, our knowledge concerning their rates of change remains limited. Two recent programmes (FAO 2000 Forest Resources Assessment and TREES II), exploiting the global imaging capabilities of Earth observing satellites, have recently been completed to provide information on the dynamics of tropical forest cover. The results from these independent studies show a high degree of conformity and provide a good understanding of trends at the pan-tropical level. In 1990 there were some 1150 million ha of tropical rain forest with the area of the humid tropics deforested annually estimated at 5.8 million ha (approximately twice the size of Belgium). A further 2.3 million ha of humid forest is apparently degraded annually through fragmentation, logging and/or fires. In the sub-humid and dry tropics, annual deforestation of tropical moist deciduous and tropical dry forests comes to 2.2 and 0.7 million ha, respectively. Southeast Asia is the region where forests are under the highest pressure with an annual change rate of -0.8 to -0.9%. The annual area deforested in Latin America is large, but the relative rate (-0.4 to -0.5%) is lower, owing to the vast area covered by the remaining Amazonian forests. The humid forests of Africa are being converted at a similar rate to those of Latin America (-0.4 to -0.5% per year). During this period, secondary forests have also been established, through re-growth on abandoned land and forest plantations, but with different ecological, biophysical and economic characteristics compared with primary forests. These trends are significant in all regions, but the extent of new forest cover has proven difficult to establish. These results, as well as the lack of more detailed knowledge, clearly demonstrate the need to improve sound scientific evidence to support policy. The two projects provide useful guidance for future monitoring efforts in the context of multilateral environmental

  4. Demography, population growth, and population policy in China: a brief history from 1940 to the present.

    PubMed

    Chu, D S

    1984-01-01

    For some 3 decades after the founding of the People's Republic of China, Chinese studies have had to life with the paradoxical situation in which the abundance of population on the mainland, ever increasing in number predictably and inexorably, was couples with a scarcity of data about the nature and patterns of demographic change, ever harder to come by. As increasing amounts of new demographic data from China, sometimes produced jointly between Chinese and foreign researchers, become available, it is clear that previous methods, technics, and styles of analyses habituated by 3 decades of minimal data from China will become inadequate and obsolete. In 1957 Ma Yinchu put forth 3 main proposals for population control: 1) to conduct another national census to gain more demographic statistics, 2) to advocate widespread public education to inform people of the importance and practical knowledge of birth control combined with propaganda on the disadvantages of early marriages and the benefits of late marriage, and 3) family planning, by popular use of contraception, is the most effective method for population control. It is argued that 1) the years 1950-1958 consisted of a period of fermentation and preparation, 2) the post-leap years, 1959-1965, constituted a period of trial implementation of emerging policies, 3) 1966-1971 was an uncontrolled period, and 4) only the years after 1971 may be viewed as a period during which serious implementation took place. Overall, the selections in this volume are intended to inform both China scholars and social scientists interested in recent developments in Chinese population studies.

  5. Respective impact of climate and fisheries on the growth of an albatross population.

    PubMed

    Rolland, V; Nevoux, M; Barbraud, C; Weimerskirch, H

    2009-07-01

    Climate and human activities such as fisheries impact many animal species. However, the demographic processes through which the population vital rates are affected, and the sensitivity of their growth rates, are poorly understood. The Black-browed Albatross, Thalassarche melanophrys, is a long-lived threatened seabird species. Previous studies have shown that the adult survival and breeding success of the population breeding at Kerguelen are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during both the breeding and the nonbreeding season, and by tuna long-lining in Tasmanian waters through bycatch mortality. Here, using long-term demographic data from a Black-browed Albatross colony monitored for 26 years at Kerguelen, we estimate all demographic parameters from early to adult stages of the life cycle in order to build a fully parameterized population model and predict population growth rates under several scenarios of climate and fishing effort. The observed population growth rate (1.003) indicates that the population was stable or slightly increasing, and our population model gives a close estimate of 1.008. Population growth rate is more sensitive to survival of experienced breeders and accordingly to a change in SSTA during incubation and to tuna long-lining effort (both affecting survival of experienced breeders) than to other demographic parameters/environmental covariates. The population stability results from multiple factors and complex relationships between demographic parameters and environmental conditions, and therefore population equilibrium is precarious. If fishing effort remains stable at its current level and positive SSTA increase, or inversely if fishing effort decreases and SSTA remain similar to present values, then the population would increase. However, if fishing effort increases by 20% (i.e., to 40 million hooks) on the wintering grounds, without any change in SSTA, then the population would decrease at 0.9% per year. If fishing

  6. Tropical forest cover change in the 1990s and options for future monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Mayaux, Philippe; Holmgren, Peter; Achard, Frédéric; Eva, Hugh; Stibig, Hans-Jürgen; Branthomme, Anne

    2005-01-01

    Despite the importance of the world's humid tropical forests, our knowledge concerning their rates of change remains limited. Two recent programmes (FAO 2000 Forest Resources Assessment and TREES II), exploiting the global imaging capabilities of Earth observing satellites, have recently been completed to provide information on the dynamics of tropical forest cover. The results from these independent studies show a high degree of conformity and provide a good understanding of trends at the pan-tropical level. In 1990 there were some 1150 million ha of tropical rain forest with the area of the humid tropics deforested annually estimated at 5.8 million ha (approximately twice the size of Belgium). A further 2.3 million ha of humid forest is apparently degraded annually through fragmentation, logging and/or fires. In the sub-humid and dry tropics, annual deforestation of tropical moist deciduous and tropical dry forests comes to 2.2 and 0.7 million ha, respectively. Southeast Asia is the region where forests are under the highest pressure with an annual change rate of −0.8 to −0.9%. The annual area deforested in Latin America is large, but the relative rate (−0.4 to −0.5%) is lower, owing to the vast area covered by the remaining Amazonian forests. The humid forests of Africa are being converted at a similar rate to those of Latin America (−0.4 to −0.5% per year). During this period, secondary forests have also been established, through re-growth on abandoned land and forest plantations, but with different ecological, biophysical and economic characteristics compared with primary forests. These trends are significant in all regions, but the extent of new forest cover has proven difficult to establish. These results, as well as the lack of more detailed knowledge, clearly demonstrate the need to improve sound scientific evidence to support policy. The two projects provide useful guidance for future monitoring efforts in the context of multilateral

  7. [A brief discussion on the effect of religion and feudal superstitions on China's population growth].

    PubMed

    Chen, G

    1983-05-29

    According to Marxism, population development is subject to the determination of production means under certain social and historical conditions, but it is also influenced by ideology, religions, and other factors. China is a country with numerous religions and traditional superstitions. Their impact on China's population growth cannot be underestimated. All religions and feudal superstitions have a role in the increase of the population, and they oppose birth control and abortion. Similarly, traditional feudal concepts of having more children for good fortune, ancestral worship, and filial piety also encouraged early marriage and having more children, and they have contributed to population growth. On the contrary, "individualism" practiced by Buddhist monks and nuns, the "sacred war" believed by Islamic people, and the offering of human sacrifices by many primitive religions, and the murdering of baby twins have served to reduce the population. Most of the religions and feudal superstitions are in favor of increasing the population. The popularity of Buddhism in the past was caused by an oversupply of the labor force. Many farmers became Buddhist monks as a way to earn a living. Since liberation, unhealthy religions and feudal superstitions have been prohibited but their everlasting infulence upon the people cannot be ignored. Uncontrolled population growth is harmful to the nation's economy and improvement of people's livelihood. In family planning work, attention should also be given to the prevention of interference from religions and feudal superstitions in people's ideology. PMID:12159370

  8. The contributions of age and sex to variation in common tern population growth rate.

    PubMed

    Ezard, T H G; Becker, P H; Coulson, T

    2006-11-01

    1. The decomposition of population growth rate into contributions from different demographic rates has many applications, ranging from evolutionary biology to conservation and management. Demographic rates with low variance may be pivotal for population persistence, but variable rates can have a dramatic influence on population growth rate. 2. In this study, the mean and variance in population growth rate (lambda) is decomposed into contributions from different ages and demographic rates using prospective and retrospective matrix analyses for male and female components of an increasing common tern (Sterna hirundo) population. 3. Three main results emerged: (1) subadult return was highly influential in prospective and retrospective analyses; (2) different age-classes made different contributions to variation in lambda: older age classes consistently produced offspring whereas young adults performed well only in high quality years; and (3) demographic rate covariation explained a significant proportion of variation in both sexes. A large contribution to lambda did not imply a large contribution to its variation. 4. This decomposition strengthens the argument that the relationship between variation in demographic rates and variation in lambda is complex. Understanding this relationship and its consequences for population persistence and evolutionary change demands closer examination of the lives, and deaths, of the individuals within populations within species.

  9. Survival, Recruitment, and Population Growth Rate of an Important Mesopredator: The Northern Raccoon

    PubMed Central

    Troyer, Elizabeth M.; Cameron Devitt, Susan E.; Sunquist, Melvin E.; Goswami, Varun R.; Oli, Madan K.

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel’s temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936–0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893–0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078–0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042–0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996–1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models. PMID:24901349

  10. Sustainability of population growth: a case study of urban settlements in Israel.

    PubMed

    Portnov, B A; Pearlmutter, D

    1997-01-01

    "One of the most sensitive criteria for gauging the degree of socio-economic prosperity of an urban settlement is the ability to sustain stable rates of population growth by attracting newcomers and retaining existing population. The present paper argues that after reaching a particular size (on the average, 20-30,000 residents), urban localities in Israel tend to experience substantial changes in components of their annual population growth. Starting with this inflection point, the growth of settlements gradually becomes less dependent on natural causes (birth and death rates) than on the ability to attract newcomers and retain current residents. On the basis of this conclusion, a strategy of ¿redirecting priorities' to developing the peripheral regions of the country is suggested."

  11. Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions.

    PubMed

    Loibel, Selene; Andrade, Marinho G; do Val, João B R; de Freitas, Alfredo R

    2010-12-01

    In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

  12. The presence of Bt-transgenic oilseed rape in wild mustard populations affects plant growth.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yongbo; Stewart, C Neal; Li, Junsheng; Huang, Hai; Zhang, Xitao

    2015-12-01

    The adventitious presence of transgenic plants in wild plant populations is of ecological and regulatory concern, but the consequences of adventitious presence are not well understood. Here, we introduced Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac (Bt)-transgenic oilseed rape (Bt OSR, Brassica napus) with various frequencies into wild mustard (Brassica juncea) populations. We sought to better understand the adventitious presence of this transgenic insecticidal crop in a wild-relative plant population. We assessed the factors of competition, resource availability and diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) infestation on plant population dynamics. As expected, Bt OSR performed better than wild mustard in mixed populations under herbivore attack in habitats with enough resources, whereas wild mustard had higher fitness when Bt OSR was rarer in habitats with limited resources. Results suggest that the presence of insect-resistant transgenic plants could decrease the growth of wild mustard and Bt OSR plants and their populations, especially under high herbivore pressure.

  13. The presence of Bt-transgenic oilseed rape in wild mustard populations affects plant growth.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yongbo; Stewart, C Neal; Li, Junsheng; Huang, Hai; Zhang, Xitao

    2015-12-01

    The adventitious presence of transgenic plants in wild plant populations is of ecological and regulatory concern, but the consequences of adventitious presence are not well understood. Here, we introduced Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac (Bt)-transgenic oilseed rape (Bt OSR, Brassica napus) with various frequencies into wild mustard (Brassica juncea) populations. We sought to better understand the adventitious presence of this transgenic insecticidal crop in a wild-relative plant population. We assessed the factors of competition, resource availability and diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) infestation on plant population dynamics. As expected, Bt OSR performed better than wild mustard in mixed populations under herbivore attack in habitats with enough resources, whereas wild mustard had higher fitness when Bt OSR was rarer in habitats with limited resources. Results suggest that the presence of insect-resistant transgenic plants could decrease the growth of wild mustard and Bt OSR plants and their populations, especially under high herbivore pressure. PMID:26338267

  14. Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    PubMed

    Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

    2011-08-01

    Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

  15. Role of prey and intraspecific density dependence on the population growth of an avian top predator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez-de-Simon, Javier; Díaz-Ruiz, Francisco; Cirilli, Francesca; Tortosa, Francisco S.; Villafuerte, Rafael; Ferreras, Pablo

    2014-10-01

    Exploring predator-prey systems in diverse ecosystems increases our knowledge about ecological processes. Predator population growth may be positive when conspecific density is low but predators also need areas with prey availability, associated with competition, which increases the risk of suffering losses but stabilises populations. We studied relationships between European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus (prey) and adult eagle owls Bubo bubo (predators) in south-western Europe. We assessed models explaining the predator population growth and stability. We estimated the abundance of rabbits and adult eagle owls during three years in eight localities of central-southern Spain. We explored models including rabbit and adult eagle owl abundance, accounting for yearly variations and including the locality as a random variable. We found that population growth of adult eagle owls was positive in situations with low conspecific abundance and tended to be negative but approaching equilibrium in situations of higher conspecific abundance. Population growth was also positively related to previous summer rabbit density when taking into account eagle owl conspecific abundance, possibly indicating that rabbits may support recruitment. Furthermore, abundance stability of adult eagle owls was positively related to previous winter-spring rabbit density, which could suggest predator population stabilisation through quick territory occupation in high-quality areas. These results exemplify the trade-off between prey availability and abundance of adult predators related to population growth and abundance stability in the eagle owl-rabbit system in south-western Europe. Despite rabbits have greatly declined during the last decades and eagle owls locally specialise on them, eagle owls currently have a favourable conservation status. As eagle owls are the only nocturnal raptor with such dependence on rabbits, this could point out that predators may overcome prey decreases in areas with

  16. Influence of plant population and nitrogen-fertilizer at various levels on growth and growth efficiency of maize.

    PubMed

    Tajul, M I; Alam, M M; Hossain, S M M; Naher, K; Rafii, M Y; Latif, M A

    2013-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.). Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800,000 plants ha⁻¹ corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm) and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha⁻¹) were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI), yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR) was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha⁻¹ receiving 220 kg N ha⁻¹, while relative growth rate (RGR) showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha⁻¹). Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD) value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha⁻¹ with 80,000 plants ha⁻¹ had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob⁻¹ that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha⁻¹) and the maximum harvest index (HI) compared to the plants in other treatments.

  17. Influence of plant population and nitrogen-fertilizer at various levels on growth and growth efficiency of maize.

    PubMed

    Tajul, M I; Alam, M M; Hossain, S M M; Naher, K; Rafii, M Y; Latif, M A

    2013-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.). Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800,000 plants ha⁻¹ corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm) and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha⁻¹) were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI), yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR) was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha⁻¹ receiving 220 kg N ha⁻¹, while relative growth rate (RGR) showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha⁻¹). Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD) value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha⁻¹ with 80,000 plants ha⁻¹ had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob⁻¹ that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha⁻¹) and the maximum harvest index (HI) compared to the plants in other treatments. PMID:24163615

  18. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  19. Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

  20. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  1. Multigenerational effect of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) on the individual fitness and population growth of Daphnia magna.

    PubMed

    Jeong, Tae-Yong; Yuk, Min-Su; Jeon, Junho; Kim, Sang Don

    2016-11-01

    We investigated the multigenerational effect of PFOS to individual fitness (e.g., body weight, acetylcholinesterase and glutathione S-transferase) and population growth (e.g., offspring number and time to first brood) of Daphnia magna during continuous and discontinuous exposures. The intrinsic rate of population growth was also calculated. In the continuous exposure, population growth-related adverse effects were detected during all test periods, and the adverse effect tended to be weaker in later generations. On the other hand, individual fitness-related adverse effects were observed from F1 not in F0 and deteriorated as the generation number increased. These results imply that individual fitness worsens although the population growth is restored in later generations. Upon discontinuous exposure, a few but significant adverse effects were observed during the non-exposure period and highest effects were detected during the re-exposure period. This encourages the study of different exposure scenarios, which may result in unexpected and higher PFOS toxicity. Consequently, this study confirms adverse effects of PFOS to Daphnia magna in multigenerational period and supports reasons for studies linking individual fitness changes to population dynamics and covering diverse exposure scenarios to evaluate the risk of PFOS in a water environment. PMID:27396314

  2. Using a population growth model to simulate response of Plodia interpunctella Hübner to temperature and diet

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Response to temperature and diet are major factors in the potential population growth of Plodia interpunctella Hübner, a damaging pest of many stored products. A population growth model was used to simulate population development on an optimal wheat-based diet and a sub-optimal diet of raisins at 20...

  3. Crowding out the Future: World Population Growth, U.S. Immigration, and Pressures on Natural Resources [and] Teacher's Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Robert W.; Mehlman, Ira H.

    Using text, graphics, satellite imagery, and data this publication with accompanying teacher's guide seeks to illustrate three main points concerning world population: (1) rapid world population growth is placing untenable immigration pressures on the United States; (2) immigration and U.S. population growth patterns generally are regionally…

  4. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  5. Generality of the growth kinetics of the average individual cell in different bacterial populations.

    PubMed Central

    Trueba, F J; Neijssel, O M; Woldringh, C L

    1982-01-01

    The kinetics of growth of all the cells in a population is reflected in the shape of the size distribution of the population. To ascertain whether the kinetics of growth of the average individual cell is similar for different strains or growth conditions, we compared the shape of normalized size distributions obtained from steady-state populations. Significant differences in the size distributions were found, but these could be ascribed either to the precision achieved at division or to a constriction period which is long relative to the total cell cycle time. The remaining difference is quite small. Thus, without establishing the pattern itself, it is concluded that the basic course of growth is very similar for the various Escherichia coli strains examined and probably also for other rod-shaped bacteria. The effects of differences in culture technique (batch or chemostat culture), growth rate, and differences among strains were not found to influence the shape of the size distributions and hence the growth kinetics in a direct manner; small differences were found, but only when the precision at division or the fraction of constricted cells (long constriction period) were different as well. PMID:6804435

  6. Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

    PubMed

    Ram, R

    1984-04-01

    The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

  7. Dynamics of individual growth in a recovering population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Schram, Stephen T.

    2001-01-01

    In 1976, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources established a refuge for a nearly depleted population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) at Gull Island Shoal, Lake Superior. The refuge was intended to reduce fishing mortality by protecting adult lake trout. We examined the growth dynamics of these lake trout during the period of recovery by comparing estimates of ndividual growth before and after the refuge was established. Our estimates are based on an annual mark-recapture survey conducted at the spawning area since 1969. We developed a model that allowed mean growth rates to differ among individuals of different sizes and that accommodated variation in growth rates of individuals of the same size. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine if the mean growth increments of lake trout changed ater the refuge was established. Our results suggest that growth of mature lake trout (particularly wild fish) decreased significantly in the postrefuge period. This decreased growth may have been associated with a reduction in food availability. We also observed reductions in growth as wild fish grew older and larger, which suggests that the growth of these fish may be adequately approximated by a von Bertalanffy growth model if it becomes possible to obtain accurate ages.

  8. Impacts of breeder loss on social structure, reproduction and population growth in a social canid.

    PubMed

    Borg, Bridget L; Brainerd, Scott M; Meier, Thomas J; Prugh, Laura R

    2015-01-01

    The importance of individuals to the dynamics of populations may depend on reproductive status, especially for species with complex social structure. Loss of reproductive individuals in socially complex species could disproportionately affect population dynamics by destabilizing social structure and reducing population growth. Alternatively, compensatory mechanisms such as rapid replacement of breeders may result in little disruption. The impact of breeder loss on the population dynamics of social species remains poorly understood. We evaluated the effect of breeder loss on social stability, recruitment and population growth of grey wolves (Canis lupus) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska using a 26-year dataset of 387 radiocollared wolves. Harvest of breeding wolves is a highly contentious conservation and management issue worldwide, with unknown population-level consequences. Breeder loss preceded 77% of cases (n = 53) of pack dissolution from 1986 to 2012. Packs were more likely to dissolve if a female or both breeders were lost and pack size was small. Harvest of breeders increased the probability of pack dissolution, likely because the timing of harvest coincided with the breeding season of wolves. Rates of denning and successful recruitment were uniformly high for packs that did not experience breeder loss; however, packs that lost breeders exhibited lower denning and recruitment rates. Breeder mortality and pack dissolution had no significant effects on immediate or longer term population dynamics. Our results indicate the importance of breeding individuals is context dependent. The impact of breeder loss on social group persistence, reproduction and population growth may be greatest when average group sizes are small and mortality occurs during the breeding season. This study highlights the importance of reproductive individuals in maintaining group cohesion in social species, but at the population level socially complex species may be resilient

  9. Comparison of native and introduced flathead catfish populations in Alabama and Georgia: Growth, mortality, and management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.; Jolley, J.C.; Harrison, D.

    2006-01-01

    We compared growth of flathead catfish Pylodictis olivaris from two native populations in Alabama (Coosa and Tallapoosa rivers) and two introduced populations in Georgia (Ocmulgee and Satilla rivers). We also compared mortality rates and potential outcomes of various management regimes (minimum length limits [MLLs]) among the populations. Total length-log10(age) regression slopes for introduced fish were higher than those for native fish, and von Bertalanffy growth coefficients (K) were greater for introduced fish (Ocmulgee: 0.195; Satilla: 0.201) than for native individuals (Coosa: 0.057; Tallapoosa: 0.059). Therefore, introduced flathead catfish grew more rapidly than those in their native range. Mortality (instantaneous mortality rate, Z) was higher in the Satilla River population (Z = -0.602) than in the Ocmulgee River (Z = -0.227) and Coosa River (Z = -0.156) populations. However, fish in the Satilla River population had been introduced for only 10 years and presumably did not reach their theoretical maximum age, potentially biasing the mortality estimate for that population. Simulation of management regimes in Fishery Analyses and Simulation Tools software predicted that maximum biomass of flathead catfish in the Ocmulgee (1,668 kg) and Satilla (1,137 kg) rivers was substantially larger than that in the Coosa (873 kg) and Tallapoosa (768 kg) populations. However, increased exploitation rates in the Ocmulgee and Satilla River populations resulted in dramatic declines in overall biomass, especially at lower MLLs (254 and 356 mm, respectively). Therefore, in systems where introduced flathead catfish represent an important recreational fishery but have dramatically reduced the abundance of native fishes through predation, minimal protection is recommended. We contend that rapid growth of introduced flathead catfish has major implications for their management and the conservation of native fishes. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  10. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  11. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  12. Theory of a microfluidic serial dilution bioreactor for growth of planktonic and biofilm populations.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Sze-Bi; Yang, Ya-Tang

    2016-04-01

    We present the theory of a microfluidic bioreactor with a two-compartment growth chamber and periodic serial dilution. In the model, coexisting planktonic and biofilm populations exchange by adsorption and detachment. The criteria for coexistence and global extinction are determined by stability analysis of the global extinction state. Stability analysis yields the operating diagram in terms of the dilution and removal ratios, constrained by the plumbing action of the bioreactor. The special case of equal uptake function and logistic growth is analytically solved and explicit growth curves are plotted. The presented theory is applicable to generic microfluidic bioreactors with discrete growth chambers and periodic dilution at discrete time points. Therefore, the theory is expected to assist the design of microfluidic devices for investigating microbial competition and microbial biofilm growth under serial dilution conditions.

  13. The control of population growth is the function of the central government.

    PubMed

    1994-04-01

    This speech of Mr. Jiang Zemin, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and Chairman of the People's Republic of China, before the National Forum on Family Planning Work refers to the need to strictly and effectively implement the family planning program in 1994. Socioeconomic reforms will be occurring simultaneously. Success of the family planning program is attributed to Party Committees, governments, cadres, and the masses. Even though there have been advances made in slowing population growth, the vast size of the Chinese population still poses problems. China's state policy is to modernize and to maintain strict control of overrapid population growth. The strategy is to move toward a market economy, while continuing to slow population growth but without market regulation of population growth. Family planning serves the state and the people through voluntary action. The public must receive "meticulous" education and help with day to day problems in production, daily life, and human reproduction. Government departments and nongovernmental organizations need to work together. Family planning use is the obligation of every citizen, who should be made aware of relevant national policy and of the need for devotion to country. Benefits will be received by the state and families, when family planning is used. Family planning will be cultivated as an honorable act, and boys and girls will be valued equally. The educational program will train leaders and cadres to take a leadership role in practicing family planning. Party organizations and governments at all levels should take personal responsibility for program implementation. Erratic efforts are not good enough; the task is long and arduous. Serious difficulties still exist in rural areas, and program focus should be directed to rural areas and the floating population. Reports were also made at the Forum on the population status and preparatory meetings of the forthcoming women

  14. Recovering population parameters from a single gene genealogy: an unbiased estimator of the growth rate.

    PubMed

    Maruvka, Yosef E; Shnerb, Nadav M; Bar-Yam, Yaneer; Wakeley, John

    2011-05-01

    We show that the number of lineages ancestral to a sample, as a function of time back into the past, which we call the number of lineages as a function of time (NLFT), is a nearly deterministic property of large-sample gene genealogies. We obtain analytic expressions for the NLFT for both constant-sized and exponentially growing populations. The low level of stochastic variation associated with the NLFT of a large sample suggests using the NLFT to make estimates of population parameters. Based on this, we develop a new computational method of inferring the size and growth rate of a population from a large sample of DNA sequences at a single locus. We apply our method first to a sample of 1,212 mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from China, confirming a pattern of recent population growth previously identified using other techniques, but with much smaller confidence intervals for past population sizes due to the low variation of the NLFT. We further analyze a set of 63 mtDNA sequences from blue whales (BWs), concluding that the population grew in the past. This calls for reevaluation of previous studies that were based on the assumption that the BW population was fixed. PMID:21172828

  15. Substance abuse studies and prevention efforts among Arabs in the 1990s in Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority--a literature review.

    PubMed

    Weiss, S; Sawa, G H; Abdeen, Z; Yanai, J

    1999-02-01

    This paper is the result of a collaborative project of Israeli, Jordanian and Palestinian scientists gathered to reveal the current extent of substance abuse and efforts at prevention among Arabs in Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority territories, in order to identify needs and suggest future collaborative activities and directions for regional cooperation. The article provides data and covers the current state of substance abuse prevention and research among Moslems, Christians and Druze in the trilateral region in the 1990s by reviewing prevention materials and studies published in the professional literature, as well as in reports and Doctoral and Master's theses in Arabic, which have been located in academic libraries and other institutions, in the framework of a comprehensive search. This manuscript is the first to summarize Jordanian and Palestinian findings in the substance abuse domain. The review shows that most of the Israeli research in the Arab sector deals with alcohol use among youth, that the majority of Jordanian studies focus on illicit drug use, that the research among Palestinians is in its infancy, and that comprehensive prevention programs are lacking in the trilateral region. It describes the key results of most of the 12 Israeli studies among Arabs, 11 Jordanian studies and four Palestinian studies. It reveals that drug abuse among Israeli Arab students is probably more prevalent than among Jewish adolescents, that the typical Jordanian drug addict has a higher level of education than the typical Palestinian drug addict, and that the Palestinian is more likely to be a multiple drug user. Recommendations for future activities include organization of a regional collaborative workshop in order to establish data collection systems for basic statistics relevant to drug abuse and development of comprehensive prevention programs, as well as studies in the substance abuse domain concerning knowledge, attitudes and behavior among the general

  16. Integrated Kinetic and Probabilistic Modeling of the Growth Potential of Bacterial Populations

    PubMed Central

    George, S. M.; Métris, A.

    2015-01-01

    When bacteria are exposed to osmotic stress, some cells recover and grow, while others die or are unculturable. This leads to a viable count growth curve where the cell number decreases before the onset of the exponential growth phase. From such curves, it is impossible to estimate what proportion of the initial cells generates the growth because it leads to an ill-conditioned numerical problem. Here, we applied a combination of experimental and statistical methods, based on optical density measurements, to infer both the probability of growth and the maximum specific growth rate of the culture. We quantified the growth potential of a bacterial population as a quantity composed from the probability of growth and the “suitability” of the growing subpopulation to the new environment. We found that, for all three laboratory media studied, the probability of growth decreased while the “work to be done” by the growing subpopulation (defined as the negative logarithm of their suitability parameter) increased with NaCl concentration. The results suggest that the effect of medium on the probability of growth could be described by a simple shift parameter, a differential NaCl concentration that can be accounted for by the change in the medium composition. Finally, we highlighted the need for further understanding of the effect of the osmoprotectant glycine betaine on metabolism. PMID:25747002

  17. Integrated kinetic and probabilistic modeling of the growth potential of bacterial populations.

    PubMed

    George, S M; Métris, A; Baranyi, J

    2015-05-01

    When bacteria are exposed to osmotic stress, some cells recover and grow, while others die or are unculturable. This leads to a viable count growth curve where the cell number decreases before the onset of the exponential growth phase. From such curves, it is impossible to estimate what proportion of the initial cells generates the growth because it leads to an ill-conditioned numerical problem. Here, we applied a combination of experimental and statistical methods, based on optical density measurements, to infer both the probability of growth and the maximum specific growth rate of the culture. We quantified the growth potential of a bacterial population as a quantity composed from the probability of growth and the "suitability" of the growing subpopulation to the new environment. We found that, for all three laboratory media studied, the probability of growth decreased while the "work to be done" by the growing subpopulation (defined as the negative logarithm of their suitability parameter) increased with NaCl concentration. The results suggest that the effect of medium on the probability of growth could be described by a simple shift parameter, a differential NaCl concentration that can be accounted for by the change in the medium composition. Finally, we highlighted the need for further understanding of the effect of the osmoprotectant glycine betaine on metabolism.

  18. [The growth and distribution of the population of Brazil: recent trends].

    PubMed

    Martine, G; Camargo, L

    1984-01-01

    Population trends underwent profound changes in Brazil during the last few decades. An important decrease in the rate of population growth was registered in the 1970s. This decrease is attributable to a decline in the level of fertility, which was observed in all regions and in both urban and rural areas. In order to explain this decline, it is necessary to analyze both structural and circumstantial factors related to the political, economic, and social context of the times. Main trends in population redistribution during the 1970s can be regrouped in terms of interregional exchanges and rural-urban migration. A growing convergence between these 2 types of patterns is observed in that population is increasingly being concentrated in densely populated areas of intense economic activities. The implications of these trends for public action are analyzed in the final section.

  19. Population Growth. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobsen, Judith E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module concentrates on interactions between population growth and human activities that produce global change. The materials are designed for undergraduate students…

  20. Population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus at constant temperatures and relative humidities

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus Enderlein. Part of this study assessed the effects of marking psocids using methylene blue, chalk powder, and fluorescent powder to differentiate nymphal stages d...

  1. Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in which to…

  2. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  3. EFFECT OF FLUID SHEAR AND IRRADIANCE ON POPULATION GROWTH AND CELLULAR TOXIN CONTENT OF THE DINOFLAGELLATE ALEXANDRIUM FUNDYENSE.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The potential for in situ turbulence to inhibit dinoflagellate population growth has been demonstrated by experimentally exposing dinoflagellate cultures to quantified shear flow. However, despite interest in understanding environmental factors that affect the growth of toxic din...

  4. Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

    PubMed Central

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

  5. Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.

    PubMed

    Howat, Peter; Stoneham, Melissa

    2011-12-01

    Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.

  6. Population growth and natural resource use: do we need to despair of Africa?.

    PubMed

    Tiffen, M; Mortimore, M

    1993-01-01

    The authors make the case that population growth can lead to increases in agricultural output per head on a sustainable basis. This argument, originally developed by E. Boserup, is "illustrated by a study of Machakos District, Kenya during 1930-1960, which shows that, if policies are supportive, agricultural and non-farm incomes grow faster than even the rapid population growth rate experienced in Africa. Land use capability is not fixed, but can be transformed by investment, new technologies and good management. Lack of investment and consequent degradation are most likely at low population densities. While the study cannot foretell the future, Java illustrates a similar theme at even higher densities." PMID:12287204

  7. Estimating individual contributions to population growth: evolutionary fitness in ecological time.

    PubMed

    Coulson, T; Benton, T G; Lundberg, P; Dall, S R X; Kendall, B E; Gaillard, J-M

    2006-03-01

    Ecological and evolutionary change is generated by variation in individual performance. Biologists have consequently long been interested in decomposing change measured at the population level into contributions from individuals, the traits they express and the alleles they carry. We present a novel method of estimating individual contributions to population growth and changes in distributions of quantitative traits and alleles. An individual's contribution to population growth is an individual's realized annual fitness. We demonstrate how the quantities we develop can be used to address a range of empirical questions, and provide an application to a detailed dataset of Soay sheep. The approach provides results that are consistent with those obtained using lifetime estimates of individual performance, yet is substantially more powerful as it allows lifetime performance to be decomposed into annual survival and fecundity contributions.

  8. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Gibbs, H. K.; Ruesch, A. S.; Achard, F.; Clayton, M. K.; Holmgren, P.; Ramankutty, N.; Foley, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Global demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and fuel is now a major driver of cropland and pasture expansion across much of the developing world. Whether these new agricultural lands replace forests, degraded forests, or grasslands greatly influences the environmental consequences of expansion. Although the general pattern is known, there still is no definitive quantification of these land-cover changes. Here we analyze the rich, pan-tropical database of classified Landsat scenes created by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to examine pathways of agricultural expansion across the major tropical forest regions in the 1980s and 1990s and use this information to highlight the future land conversions that probably will be needed to meet mounting demand for agricultural products. Across the tropics, we find that between 1980 and 2000 more than 55% of new agricultural land came at the expense of intact forests, and another 28% came from disturbed forests. This study underscores the potential consequences of unabated agricultural expansion for forest conservation and carbon emissions. PMID:20807750

  9. To decentralize or not to decentralize, is that the question? Nicaraguan health policy under structural adjustment in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Birn, A E; Zimmerman, S; Garfield, R

    2000-01-01

    Since 1990, health services decentralization in Nicaragua has been accompanied by structural adjustment, resulting in reduced equity and accountability. Sandinista efforts in the 1980s to extend access to primary care and reduce class and regional disparities in the delivery of health services were accompanied by modest attempts to increase local-level accountability and responsiveness. The escalation of war in the late 1980s transformed this effort into greater de facto decentralization. Over the past decade, Nicaragua has used decentralization policy to restructure the health system through health spending cuts and the favoring of curative over preventive services; privatization and the promotion of user fees; and confusion of lines of accountability. The authors analyze the 1990s' health policies in Nicaragua, paying particular attention to the blending of decentralization policy with the fiscal and administrative reforms advanced by the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other international agencies. They conclude that analyzing decentralization as a sector-specific reform that can be ameliorated through technocratic modifications is insufficient. A full understanding of the problems and possibilities of decentralization requires an analysis of the political and economic context that conditions these policies. PMID:10707302

  10. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, H K; Ruesch, A S; Achard, F; Clayton, M K; Holmgren, P; Ramankutty, N; Foley, J A

    2010-09-21

    Global demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and fuel is now a major driver of cropland and pasture expansion across much of the developing world. Whether these new agricultural lands replace forests, degraded forests, or grasslands greatly influences the environmental consequences of expansion. Although the general pattern is known, there still is no definitive quantification of these land-cover changes. Here we analyze the rich, pan-tropical database of classified Landsat scenes created by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to examine pathways of agricultural expansion across the major tropical forest regions in the 1980s and 1990s and use this information to highlight the future land conversions that probably will be needed to meet mounting demand for agricultural products. Across the tropics, we find that between 1980 and 2000 more than 55% of new agricultural land came at the expense of intact forests, and another 28% came from disturbed forests. This study underscores the potential consequences of unabated agricultural expansion for forest conservation and carbon emissions. PMID:20807750

  11. Partners in Freedom: Contributions of the Langley Research Center to U.S. Military Aircraft of the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chambers, Joseph R.

    2000-01-01

    Established in 1917 as the nation#s first civil aeronautics research laboratory under the National Advisory Commit-tee for Aeronautics (NACA), Langley was a small laboratory that solved the problems of flight for military and civil aviation. Throughout history, Langley has maintained a working partnership with the Department of Defense, U.S. industry, universities, and other government agencies to support the defense of the nation with research. During World War II, Langley directed virtually all of its workforce and facilities to research for military aircraft. Following the war, a balanced program of military and civil projects was undertaken. In some instances Langley research from one aircraft program helped solve a problem in another. At the conclusion of some programs, Langley obtained the research models for additional tests to learn more about previously unknown phenomena. The data also proved useful in later developmental programs. Many of the military aircraft in the U.S. inventory as of late 1999 were over 20 years old. Langley activities that contributed to the development of some of these aircraft began over 50 years prior. This publication documents the role, from early concept stages to problem solving for fleet aircraft, that Langley played in the military aircraft fleet of the United States for the 1990's.

  12. Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

    PubMed Central

    Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

    2015-01-01

    A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004–2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate. PMID:26522168

  13. [Prevalence of tobacco use in Switzerland in the 1990's--estimation of consumption trends based on 2 methods].

    PubMed

    Gmel, G

    2000-01-01

    Smoking prevalence rates in Switzerland in the 1990s++ have been estimated from Perma data, which have been available quarterly since 1991, as well as from the data of the first and second Swiss Health Surveys, conducted in 1992/93 and 1997. Both sources--each providing data on more than 10,000 respondents--have been large-scale surveys that have used different but complementary survey designs. The probabilistic sampling design of the Health Surveys assures representative findings; the Perma data, although obtained through a non-probabilistic sampling design, permits trend analysis as Perma uses multiple measurement points and therefore time-series methodology can be applied. Both Perma and the Health Surveys yielded approximately the same prevalence of 37% male smokers in 1992/93 and 39% in 1997. For females Perma gave 4% higher prevalence rates than the Health Surveys (Surveys 1992/93: 24%; 1997: 31%). For both sexes the increase in total smoking prevalence was accounted for mainly by adolescents and young adults. Whereas the Surveys showed an increase from 29% to 41% (18% to 39%) in males (females) aged 15 to 19 years, the corresponding increase derived from Perma was 50% less. Except for this youngest age-group, differences between the methods remained within standard statistical norms. There is no doubt, however, that smoking in adolescents increased between 1992/93 and 1997.

  14. Impact of local sea surface temperature on changes of summer precipitation components over Northeast Asia in mid-1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Eun-Chul; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Yoshimura, Kei

    2014-05-01

    In this study, the new global atmospheric analysis dataset (DA126) which is produced by the global and regional integrated model system (GRIMs) global model program (GMP) is used to identify changes of the summer precipitation components in mid-1990s over Northeast Asia. The convective rain ratio (CRR) is used as the index to find changes of the precipitation component, which is the proportion of convective precipitation to the total precipitation. The CRR shows increasing trend over Northeast Asia where includes the Korea-Japan region for recent 30-years, whereas precipitation anomaly does not have a distinct trend over this region. The increased CRR shows a significant relationship with the increased local sea surface temperature (SST) variability. To investigate effects of the local SST on the summer precipitation components over Northeast Asia, two experiments are performed by utilizing the GRIMs regional model program (RMP). The CNTL experiment is forced by the observed SST whereas the CLIM run is forced by the climatological SST. Lateral boundary condition for two regional model experiments is provided by the GRIMs GMP run forced by the historical SSTs over tropical region to exclude mid-latitude SST effect. The SST warming increases the convective precipitation through the increased convective available potential energy and does not have large effects on the large-scale rainfall component. Consequently, the total amount of the precipitation and the CRR are increased by the local SST warming over Northeast Asia.

  15. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, H K; Ruesch, A S; Achard, F; Clayton, M K; Holmgren, P; Ramankutty, N; Foley, J A

    2010-09-21

    Global demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and fuel is now a major driver of cropland and pasture expansion across much of the developing world. Whether these new agricultural lands replace forests, degraded forests, or grasslands greatly influences the environmental consequences of expansion. Although the general pattern is known, there still is no definitive quantification of these land-cover changes. Here we analyze the rich, pan-tropical database of classified Landsat scenes created by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to examine pathways of agricultural expansion across the major tropical forest regions in the 1980s and 1990s and use this information to highlight the future land conversions that probably will be needed to meet mounting demand for agricultural products. Across the tropics, we find that between 1980 and 2000 more than 55% of new agricultural land came at the expense of intact forests, and another 28% came from disturbed forests. This study underscores the potential consequences of unabated agricultural expansion for forest conservation and carbon emissions.

  16. Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

    PubMed

    Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

    2015-11-02

    A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

  17. Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator.

    PubMed Central

    Hone, Jim; Sibly, Richard M

    2002-01-01

    Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance. PMID:12396509

  18. Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator.

    PubMed

    Hone, Jim; Sibly, Richard M

    2002-09-29

    Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance. PMID:12396509

  19. Turkey's population at the beginning of the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Unalan, T

    1997-01-01

    This article describes the population structure in Turkey over the past 70 years and presents population projections for the period 1990-2025. Demographic patterns and economic development vary widely within Turkey. Population increased from 13 million to about 60 million during 1923-95. The annual population growth rate was 2.2%. Turkey is one of the 20 most populous countries of the world. The government of Turkey maintained a pronatalist policy until the mid-1960s. The Population Planning Law of 1965 allowed limited imports of contraceptives. In 1983 the law was revised and liberalized to allow abortion up to the 10th gestation week and voluntary surgical sterilization. Past high fertility and growth rates are evident in the young population age structure. In the early 1990s the crude birth rate was about 25/1000. Contraceptive prevalence in 1993 was 63% of total married women in reproductive ages, but only 34.5% relied on effective methods. Withdrawal was the most popular method. Over 66% of women in 1993 reported a desire to stop childbearing, and 14% desired a delay in childbearing. Ideal family size was 2.4 children. The total fertility rate in 1993 was 2.7 children compared to 3.4 in 1988. Infant mortality declined to 53/1000 in the early 1990s. Maternal mortality was 132/1000 live births. Life expectancy was 63 years for males and 68 years for females. 51.4% of the population was urban in 1993. Net in-migration is expected until 2010. Population, under the medium variant, is expected to reach 66 million in 2000 and 87 million in 2025. Under the low variant and a fertility rate decline to 1.58 by 2025, population would reach about 84 million by 2025. Although Turkey remains different from European Union (EU) countries in socioeconomic and demographic profiles, Turkey is a middle-income country and offers the EU an important human resource.

  20. Population growth of Nassella trichotoma in grasslands in New Zealand slower today than in the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamoureaux, Shona L.; Bourdôt, Graeme W.; Saville, David J.

    2011-09-01

    Nassella trichotoma established in modified tussock-grasslands in New Zealand from about 1860. Management programmes since 1946 have reduced populations to levels no longer impacting pastoral production. Optimising future management requires knowledge of the trajectory of population growth and its regulating demographic processes. To that end, four long-term field experiments were conducted. Net reproductive rate varied from 1.021 to 1.237 year -1 and growth in plant basal diameter from 8.1 to 16.6 mm year -1. The probability of flowering increased with basal diameter and was essentially unity above 50 mm diameter. Populations grubbed annually declined abruptly but recruitment was unaffected and extinction did not occur. Of seeds sown into disturbed and intact pastures, 0-51% produced seedlings and more arose on sunny slopes and from disturbed than intact pasture. Death rates were high; 7 years after sowing, surviving plants represented only 0-9% of the seed sown. Seeds buried 25 mm deep in the pasture litter on two occasions declined in viability at rates of 74 and 89% in the first year and first three months respectively and 26 and 0% year -1 thereafter. Seed production plant -1 (square root scale) increased linearly with plant basal diameter; for example, plants of 11 and 100 mm diameter are predicted to produce 0 and 11,092 spikelets (each with one seed) respectively. We estimate that a N. trichotoma population today will, in the absence of management, take 210 years to increase to 90% of its carrying capacity supporting the hypothesis that population growth in this species is slower than occurred historically. We show that the rates of some demographic processes may be much lower than in the past and suggest this is due to more competitive vegetation resulting from improved management. The size-dependence of many processes supports the need for a size-structured model to explain population growth in this weed.

  1. Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

    2015-01-01

    Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal. PMID:26078856

  2. [The population growth in the city of Beijing and our present tasks (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Qian, L J; Xu, B; Huang, S Y

    1980-04-01

    Concern for the rapid population growth since 1949 of China's second largest city, Beijing, is discussed in terms of population control, migration, and rises in the productive development of the city. From 1949 to 1963 the natural rate of population increased from 7.5 to 35.3%; however, after the introduction of a birth control program in 1971, the natural increase of population declined to 4.02% in 1977. From 1949-1978, the average birth rate was 145,000/year while the average death rate was 46,500/year, leaving the annual average increase in population at 98,000. The natural population increased by 2,340,000 from 1949-1978. The massive population growth since 1949 affected the economic development of the city as well as the country. Cultivated land near Beijing increased from 1949-1952, but because of urban development the land for cultivation decreased by 1,527,000 market acres from that available in 1949 (7,965,000 market acres). Population density increased from 430 persons/ square kilometer in 1962 to 506 persons/ square kilometer in 1978. From 1953 to 1978, production and consumption rates fluctuated with a net balance of only 2020 million catties in the 26 years, causing the need for products to be imported from other areas of the country. Unemployment is exacerbated by the lack of jobs and increasing numbers of people. Transportation problems also have developed. New efforts are being made to inform people of population control by the Beijing Population Association begun in 1979, because Beijing's population will continue to increase until 1989 due to the baby boom years during the fifties which created a 2nd boom in the late 1970s as well as the lack of education on population control. Other programs are being developed to, 1) educate people on economical measures of reducing the population, 2) promote governmental departments to improve birth control programs by means of social security services, child health agencies, and nursing schools, 3

  3. What Have Peace Education Commission Papers Dealt with in the 1990s? Comments on a Guide to Five Conference Reports. Reprints and Miniprints, No. 857.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bjerstedt, Ake

    Five international conferences were held during the 1990s by the Peace Education Commission, a semi-independent subgroup of the International Peace Research Association. The conferences were held in Groningen (The Netherlands), Firenze (Italy), Kyoto (Japan), Budapest (Hungary), and Valletta (Malta). This document is a brief commentary on the…

  4. Higher Education into the 1990s: New Dimensions. To Commemorate the Jubilee of the Society for Research into Higher Education, 1964-1989.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ball, Christopher, Ed.; Eggins, Heather, Ed.

    This collection of essays aims to contribute to the understanding of the present predicament and future potential of higher education in the United Kingdom. It considers the new dimensions being introduced into higher education which are likely to have marked effects in the 1990s. It explores the tensions between the past and future, tradition and…

  5. The Effect of Local Labor Market Conditions in the 1990s on the Likelihood of Community College Students' Persistence and Attainment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kienzl, Gregory S.; Alfonso, Mariana; Melguizo, Tatiana

    2007-01-01

    This study analyzes the influence of local labor market conditions on the year-to-year persistence and attainment decisions of a sample of traditional-aged students who attended community colleges during the 1990s. The findings suggest that the enrollment and attainment decisions of these first-time community college students were not made purely…

  6. Influence of climate regime shift on the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Basin during the middle to late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Chi-Cherng; Wu, Yi-Kai; Li, Tim

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a new interpretation is proposed for the abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. We hypothesize that this abrupt change constitutes a part of the phenomenon of interdecadal change in TC activity in the Pacific Basin, including the WNP, western South Pacific (WSP), and eastern North Pacific. Our analysis revealed that the climate-regime shift (CRS) in the Pacific during the middle to late 1990s resulted in a La Niña-like mean state, which was responsible for the interdecadal change in TC activity in the late 1990s. Analyses of the TC genesis potential index and numerical experiments revealed that the decline in TC activity in both the WNP and WSP was primarily attributable to the increase of vertical wind shear in the central Pacific due to the La Niña-like associated cold sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, the La Niña-like associated warm SST in the western Pacific produced anomalous vertical transport of water vapor, increasing moisture levels in the mid-troposphere and TC activity in the western WNP. Furthermore, the CRS modified the mean TC genesis position and shifted the steering flow to the west, resulting in the increased frequency of TC landfalls in Taiwan, southeastern China, and northern Australia after the late 1990s.

  7. Children and Development in the 1990s: A UNICEF Sourcebook on the Occasion of the World Summit for Children (New York, New York, September 20-30, 1990).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This eight-part sourcebook provides background information, data, and references relating to child welfare issues throughout the world. The book is organized around a set of goals for children in the 1990s. An introductory section provides an overview of these goals and strategies for achieving them, and discusses infant and child mortality,…

  8. Influence of climate regime shift on the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Basin during the middle to late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Chi-Cherng; Wu, Yi-Kai; Li, Tim

    2016-10-01

    In this study, a new interpretation is proposed for the abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. We hypothesize that this abrupt change constitutes a part of the phenomenon of interdecadal change in TC activity in the Pacific Basin, including the WNP, western South Pacific (WSP), and eastern North Pacific. Our analysis revealed that the climate-regime shift (CRS) in the Pacific during the middle to late 1990s resulted in a La Niña-like mean state, which was responsible for the interdecadal change in TC activity in the late 1990s. Analyses of the TC genesis potential index and numerical experiments revealed that the decline in TC activity in both the WNP and WSP was primarily attributable to the increase of vertical wind shear in the central Pacific due to the La Niña-like associated cold sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, the La Niña-like associated warm SST in the western Pacific produced anomalous vertical transport of water vapor, increasing moisture levels in the mid-troposphere and TC activity in the western WNP. Furthermore, the CRS modified the mean TC genesis position and shifted the steering flow to the west, resulting in the increased frequency of TC landfalls in Taiwan, southeastern China, and northern Australia after the late 1990s.

  9. Comparing the Understanding of the Nature of Science by Preservice Secondary Science Teachers in the Mid-1960s and the Early 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boone, William J.; Andersen, Hans O.

    1996-01-01

    Presents a study comparing the understanding of the nature of science by preservice secondary science teachers in the mid-1960s and the early 1990s. Uses the Nature of Science Scale (NOSS) to determine teachers' understanding. Concludes with an evaluation of most items for which the responses changed dramatically in those 25 years. Contains 19…

  10. The Rhetoric of a Reform: The Construction of "Public", "Management" and the "New" in Norwegian Education Reforms of the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trippestad, Tom Are

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a critical rhetorical analysis of the governing and reform ideology of the Norwegian school system of the 1990s. It uses Karl Popper's "The Open Society and its Enemies" as a critical resource in the reading of the reforms, and discusses some of the consequences of the regime's models of leadership and public management for…

  11. Pathbreaking CBO Study Shows Dramatic Increases in Income Disparities in 1980s and 1990s: An Analysis of the CBO Data. Revised.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shapiro, Isaac; Greenstein, Robert; Primus, Wendell

    A study by the Congressional Budget Office of income and tax trends since 1979 showed dramatic increases in income disparities, especially between the wealthiest one percent of Americans and the rest of society, in the 1980s and 1990s. The percentage of income Americans paid in federal taxes declined for every income group between 1979-97. The…

  12. A Descriptive Analysis of Race/Ethnicity and Sex of Individuals Appearing on the Covers of "Sports Illustrated" in the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lumpkin, Angela

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether the number of individuals pictured on the covers of Sports Illustrated during the 1990s was reflective of their levels of participation by sport, race/ethnicity, and sex. These descriptors of the individuals pictured on each cover between 1990 and 1999 were identified and analyzed. African Americans…

  13. Population growth and physiological characteristics of microalgae in a miniaturized bioreactor during space flight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Gaohong; Chen, Haofeng; Li, Genbao; Chen, Lanzhou; Li, Dunhai; Hu, Chunxiang; Chen, Kun; Liu, Yongding

    2006-03-01

    A strain of microalgae ( Anabaena siamensis) had been cultured in a miniaturized bioreactor during a retrievable satellite flight for 15 days. By means of remote sensing equipment installed in the satellite, we gained the growth curve of microalgae population in space every day in real time. The curve indicated that the growth of microalgae in space was slower than the control on ground. Inoculation of the retrieved microalgae culture showed that the growth rate was distinctively higher than ground control. But after several generations, both cultures indicated similar growth rates. Those data showed that algae can adapt to space environment easily which may be valuable for designing more complex bioreactor and controlled ecological life support system in future experiment.

  14. The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

    PubMed

    Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

    2013-11-01

    1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to

  15. Population ecology of the gulf ribbed mussel across a salinity gradient: recruitment, growth and density

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Honig, Aaron; Supan, John; LaPeyre, Megan K.

    2015-01-01

    Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and promoting productivity. As such, changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences. Recruitment, growth, mortality, population size structure and density of the gulf coast ribbed mussel, Geukensia granosissima, were examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana. Data were collected along 100-m transects at interior and edge marsh plots located at duplicate sites in upper (salinity ~4 psu), central (salinity ~8 psu) and lower (salinity ~15 psu) Barataria Bay, Louisiana, U.S.A. Growth, mortality and recruitment were measured in established plots from April through November 2012. Mussel densities were greatest within the middle bay (salinity ~8) regardless of flooding regime, but strongly associated with highest stem densities of Juncus roemerianus vegetation. Mussel recruitment, growth, size and survival were significantly higher at mid and high salinity marsh edge sites as compared to all interior marsh and low salinity sites. The observed patterns of density, growth and mortality in Barataria Bay may reflect detrital food resource availability, host vegetation community distribution along the salinity gradient, salinity tolerance of the mussel, and reduced predation at higher salinity edge sites.

  16. Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

    PubMed

    Paiva, P D

    1997-01-01

    For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

  17. Growth in Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Capacity Relative to Population and Disease Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Langabeer, James R.; Henry, Timothy D.; Kereiakes, Dean J.; DelliFraine, Jami; Emert, Jamie; Wang, Zheng; Stuart, Leilani; King, Richard; Segrest, Wendy; Moyer, Peter; Jollis, James G.

    2013-01-01

    Background The access to and growth of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has not been fully explored with regard to geographic equity and need. Economic factors and timely access to primary PCI provide the impetus for growth in PCI centers, and this is balanced by volume standards and the benefits of regionalized care. Methods and Results Geospatial and statistical analyses were used to model capacity, growth, and access of PCI hospitals relative to population density and myocardial infarction (MI) prevalence at the state level. Longitudinal data were obtained for 2003–2011 from the American Hospital Association, the U.S. Census, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) with geographical modeling to map PCI locations. The number of PCI centers has grown 21.2% over the last 8 years, with 39% of all hospitals having interventional cardiology capabilities. During the same time, the US population has grown 8.3%, from 217 million to 235 million, and MI prevalence rates have decreased from 4.0% to 3.7%. The most densely concentrated states have a ratio of 8.1 to 12.1 PCI facilities per million of population with significant variability in both MI prevalence and average distance between PCI facilities. Conclusions Over the last decade, the growth rate for PCI centers is 1.5× that of the population growth, while MI prevalence is decreasing. This has created geographic imbalances and access barriers with excess PCI centers relative to need in some regions and inadequate access in others. PMID:24166491

  18. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    PubMed

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  19. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    PubMed

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

  20. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility

    PubMed Central

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517