Science.gov

Sample records for 1990s population growth

  1. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  2. Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

    2012-01-01

    We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

  3. Growth, Distribution, and Poverty in Africa: Messages from the 1990s. Poverty Dynamics in Africa.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christiaensen, Luc; Demery, Lionel; Paternostro, Stefano

    This book reviews trends in household well-being in Africa during the 1990s. Using the better data sets now available, the main factors behind observed poverty changes are examined in eight countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, Mauritania, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. A broad view of poverty is taken, which includes income poverty and…

  4. Population growth.

    PubMed

    1984-01-01

    Despite efforts to reduce population growth, the World Bank projects a world population of 10 billion by 2050, with 7 billion living in developing countries. From October 1979 to September 1984, the US Agency for International Development (AID) funded the Research Triangle Institute's (RTI) Integrated Population and Development Planning (IPDP) project to assess rapid population growth effects in 25 developing countries. In October 1984, US AID extended funding for the program, nicknamed INPLAN, for 3 years, at a cost of $6.3 million. Up to 50% of people in developing countries are under age 15, a fact that guarantees large population increases for the next 50-75 years. Also, many regions have been slow to correlate high fertility with socioeconomic development, and in some areas, fertility is actually increasing. INPLAN aims to make governments more aware of population dynamics and to provide training and tools for effective development planning. 40% of INPLAN's work will be done in Africa, 25% in Latin America, and 20% in Asia, with some activity in the Near East. One project in Egypt, involving the use of model generation by microcomputer, was developed by RTI to show rural to urban migration and rapid population growth affects on the educational system. INPLAN expects to develop several other planning sector models on labor force and employment, health and family planning, food supply, housing, and urban development, and apply them to 20-25 countries. Another project provided 9 microcomputer systems and training to Nigerian government agencies. IMPLAN will purchase and distribute 60 such systems in the future.

  5. Revised Birth and Fertility Rates for the 1990s and New Rates for Hispanic Populations, 2000 and 2001: United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamilton, Brady E.; Sutton, Paul D.; Ventura, Stephanie J.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents revised birth and fertility rates for 1991-1999, plus previously published rates for 2000-2001, based on populations consistent with the April 1, 2000 census. Revised rates for Hispanic subgroups are also included. Rates are presented by age, race, and Hispanic origin of mother; by age, race, Hispanic origin, and marital…

  6. Simulating Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byington, Scott

    1997-01-01

    Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

  7. Impacts of Hispanic Population Growth on Rural Wages. Agricultural Economic Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newman, Constance

    Although earnings generally increased in rural areas in the 1990s, Hispanic population growth led to lower wages for at least one segment of the rural population--workers with a high school degree (skilled workers), particularly men in this skill group. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Current Population Survey, this report…

  8. Disaggregated analysis of US energy consumption in the 1990s: Evidence of the effects of the internet and rapid economic growth

    SciTech Connect

    Murtishaw, Scott; Schipper, Lee

    2001-07-01

    This paper decomposes US energy use from 1988 to 1998 and attributes the changes in energy use to three underlying factors: activity, structure, and intensity. For this study we use a bottom-up methodology, by separately decomposing delivered energy use in six sectors: travel, freight, manufacturing industries, non-manufacturing industries, residential, and services. The most commonly used indicator of energy efficiency in the total economy, the ratio of energy consumed to unit of GDP (E/GDP) created can often be misleading. The rapid decline in the E/GDP ratio in recent years has been used to support assertions that the Internet and information technologies in general have enabled improvements in energy efficiencies. However, our disaggregate analysis suggests that energy intensities on average are falling more slowly than ever before while actual energy use increased faster than at any time since 1970. The decline in the E/GDP ratio in the mid-to late 1990s owes much more to structural changes in the demand for energy services than to falling energy intensities.

  9. Population growth and economic growth.

    PubMed

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  10. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  11. Impact of Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrlich, Paul R.; Holdren, John P.

    1971-01-01

    Discusses the interrelated crises in population growth, natural resources, and environmental quality. Major problems include population control, redirection of technology, closed resource cycles, equitable opportunity distribution and prosperity. Population growth is regarded as causing a disportionate world-wide negative environmental impact.…

  12. Can the world do better in the 1990s?

    PubMed

    Brown, L R

    1989-12-01

    To reduce further environmental damage to our planet, fossil fuels must no longer form the basis of the world economy. Further, nuclear power is proving to be too cost prohibitive. Society already pays tremendous amounts for building nuclear power plants, but also billions of US dollars to dismantle them and to safely dispose of their contents and building materials. Society must also address the problems of nuclear weapons production. Based on these factors, the Worldwatch Institute concludes that the only way we can live in an environmentally sustainable and politically acceptable future is to base our world economy on solar energy. Presently Japan operates under 1 of the most energy efficient systems in the world. The United States (US) requires almost twice the energy to produce a dollar's worth of gross national product than does Japan. Even if world land productivity could increase during the 1990s as fast as Japan raised its land productivity during the 1970s and 1980s, food output growth will still only be about half the projected rate of population growth. In addition, by boosting living conditions, Japan and China reduced their population growth rate in half within a decade and without today's contraceptives. Therefore by increasing the status of women and social and political commitment, developing countries (where populations often grow exponentially) can also do so. Environmental deterioration, as evidenced by soil erosion and deforestation, limits food production while the world's population grows. The US, a major world grain producer, has lost 11% of its total cropland, mainly due to overplowing in the 1970s. Japan should use its economic resources and experiences to lead the world in reducing population growth.

  13. Rural Earnings Holding Steady in the Early 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swaim, Paul

    1995-01-01

    Current Population Survey data indicate an overall decline in the rural-urban pay gap during the early 1990s (due to declining urban wages, not rising rural wages). In 1993, the earnings of 30 percent of rural full-time workers were below the poverty level. Compares low-income workers by gender, age group, education, and race/ethnicity. (LP)

  14. Population growth and consumption.

    PubMed

    Chalkley, K

    1997-04-01

    The relationship between population growth, resource consumption, and environmental degradation is complex. The rise in "greenhouse gases" that will cause climatic change is clearly due to human activity, and pollutants are often concentrated in densely populated areas. However, even an area with a negative population growth, such as Russia, can experience severe environmental degradation due to poor management. Consumption patterns have the most effect on ozone depletion, while population growth threatens biodiversity of and within species through the destruction of ecosystems. Migration joins population growth and social factors, such as land inequality, as major causes of deforestation, and global demand for water is expected to increase faster than the rate of population growth. Coastal development and over-fishing threaten to deplete the oceans, while soil quality is threatened by inappropriate land use. Estimates of the earth's carrying capacity range from less than 3 billion to more than 44 billion people, indicating how difficult it is to assess this figure. Development efforts throughout the world may lead to human gains that will ultimately be negated by environmental losses. These factors have led to growing support for environmentally sustainable development.

  15. Global population growth.

    PubMed

    Langmore, J

    1992-07-01

    The global population passed 5 billion in 1987. In the year 2000 the world's population will be more than 6 billion, increasing by 90-100 million each year. About 95% of future demographic growth will take place in developing countries. The number of school age children is projected to increase from 940 million in 1980 to 1280 million by the year 2000. Under current labor force growth projections in developing countries, around 1.6 billion new jobs will have to be created between 1980 and 2025, with nearly 1 billion of them in Asia. Population often increases at a more rapid rate than agricultural growth. Food production per capita has declined in 70 developing countries. Much of the projected population increase will take place in environmentally fragile regions of the developing world. Population pressures contribute to deforestation, desertification, and scarcity of clean water. The United Nations Population Fund has estimated that in Asia over 43% of women not using family planning would like to postpone, space, or limit their childbearing. Over half of the world's couples of reproductive age are now using contraception. Family planning to postpone the first birth and to eliminate late child bearing would reduce both child loss and maternal illness and death. Both infant and maternal mortality are greater with higher order births. Reducing average family size is an effective way of reducing infant and maternal mortality. The World Bank has given high priority to population assistance, with large programs in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Population assistance provided by the Australian International Development Assistance Bureau totaled about $4.5 million during 1989-90 and is expected to be about $8 million during 1991-92. Australia should increase the proportion of its development assistance budget devoted to population, and family planning programs should increase to around $26 million in line with other major donors.

  16. Population Change in the Midwest: Nonmetro Population Growth Lags Metro Increase.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goudy, Willis

    2002-01-01

    Midwest population gains in the 1990s were eclipsed by other regions, and nonmetro areas fared worse than metro counties. Less populous and more isolated counties were more likely to lose residents and to lose youth. The Midwest gained Hispanic residents in the 1990s, but numerical increases were much larger in metro counties. Implications for…

  17. Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

    PubMed

    Jha, S; Bawa, K S

    2006-06-01

    Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

  18. Law Library Service in the 1990's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    The Bookmark, 1990

    1990-01-01

    This issue of "The Bookmark" presents 20 articles focusing on various aspects of law library services in New York State. The articles are: (1) "Law Library Services in the 1990's" (Christine Bain); (2) "A Librarian's View of Legal Publishing Today" (Margaret Maes Axtmann); (3) "Legal Publishing--A Publisher's View" (Kenneth Lee Halajian); (4)…

  19. Introduction: Themes for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erickson, Paul A.; Rice, Patricia C.

    1990-01-01

    Discusses the following themes that pervade individual articles in this volume: (1) critical reasoning; (2) inductive anthropology; (3) active learning; (4) discovery; (5) open versus closed anthropology; (6) reflexivity; (7) cross-cultural comparisons; (8) films; (9) holism; and (10) problems in the 1990s. Suggests that these themes will be at…

  20. Marketing ambulatory services in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Hicks, S

    1992-07-01

    The ability to predict, to adapt to change, and to develop strategic low cost marketing plans are the components essential to remaining financially solvent in today's health care environment. The marketing process is analogous to the nursing process and should support the institution's mission statement, philosophy, and goals. Managers who are able to empower their personnel to become the sales force and implement the marketing plan will be the survivors in the 1990s.

  1. Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline.

    PubMed

    Laidre, K L; Estes, J A; Tinker, M T; Bodkin, J; Monson, D; Schneider, K

    2006-07-01

    1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967-71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992-97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves. 2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12-18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10-11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves. 3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1-2 years earlier in the 1990s. 4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation. 5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lx function) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations). 6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at some islands in

  2. Enterprise storage report for the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Fred

    1992-01-01

    Data processing has become an increasingly vital function, if not the most vital function, in most businesses today. No longer only a mainframe domain, the data processing enterprise also includes the midrange and workstation platforms, either local or remote. This expanded view of the enterprise has encouraged more and more businesses to take a strategic, long-range view of information management rather than the short-term tactical approaches of the past. This paper will highlight some of the significant aspects of data storage in the enterprise for the 1990's.

  3. Enterprise storage report for the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Fred

    1991-01-01

    Data processing has become an increasingly vital function, if not the most vital function, in most businesses today. No longer only a mainframe domain, the data processing enterprise also includes the midrange and workstation platforms, either local or remote. This expanded view of the enterprise has encouraged more and more businesses to take a strategic, long-range view of information management rather than the short-term tactical approaches of the past. Some of the significant aspects of data storage in the enterprise for the 1990's are highlighted.

  4. Macroeconomic adjustment, food availability and nutrition status in Nigeria. A look at the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Igbedioh, S O

    1990-12-01

    Faced with balance of payment problems, declining commodity prices, and a corresponding reduction in foreign exchange earnings, Nigeria implemented a structural adjustment program in 1986. This step was taken in response to encouragement from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and was aimed to accomplish the following: find the true value of the official currency; overcome public sector inefficiency through improved public expenditure and parastatal rationalization; reschedule medium- and long-term debt to relieve debt burden; and encourage net foreign capital inflow while limiting foreign loans. Implementing and adhering to these macroeconomic adjustment policies has brought unprecedented inflation, lower real earnings, and increased malnutrition among lower income sectors of the population. The poor have suffered diminishing access to nutritious foods. Conscribed access to food and compromised nutritional status will most likely persist into the 1990s unless corrective policies are adopted. Appropriate policy would aim to increase the poor's access to food and limit population growth.

  5. U.S. Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dillner, Harry

    This autoinstructional lesson deals with the study of man and his environment. No previous experience or learning in this field is required. Emphasis is placed on analysis of population growth and the impact population growth and trends have on natural resource depletion. The behavioral objectives (five) are listed. The study guide for the…

  6. Population Growth: Crisis and Challenge.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beaton, John R., Ed.; Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.

    The proceedings of this first annual symposium on population growth considers the consequences of this growth, along with possible means of regulation. Topics of speeches include: Population Outlook in Asia (Irene Taeuber); Malnutrition is a Problem of Ecology (Paul Gyorgy); The Leisure Explosion (E. H. Storey); Effects of Pollution on Population…

  7. The repercussion of population growth.

    PubMed

    Barnes, A C

    1981-08-01

    It is self-evident that, "in a finite world, infinite population growth is impossible." Population growth rates are now higher than ever before in history. In addition, there is a certain level of momentum built in, i.e., even achievement of zero population growth would be accompanied by real increases in the population level due to the age-sex structure of the population. While birth, death, and population growth rates can be calculated arithmetically, their repercussions for quality of life indices cannot. With unlimited population growth, life becomes less worth living. A brief examination is made of the following indices of quality of life and the implications for them of unlimited growth: 1) educational facilities and information media; 2) food and nutrition; 3) housing and clothing; 4) health facilities and sanitation; 5) job availability; 6) waste disposal and the quality of the environment; and 7) energy supply and transportation. Except at the local level, it is unlikely that these facilities can grow exponentially with rapid population growth. Population control must ultimately rest on many individual decisions taken at the personal level.

  8. Physics through the 1990s: An overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The volume details the interaction of physics and society, and presents a short summary of the progress in the major fields of physics and a summary of the other seven volumes of the Physics through the 1990s series, issues and recommended policy changes are described regarding funding, education, industry participation, small-group university research and large facility programs, government agency programs, and computer database needs. Three supplements report in detail on international issues in physics (the US position in the field, international cooperation and competition-especially on large projects, freedom for scientists, free flow of information, and education of foreign students), the education and supply of physicists (the changes in US physics education, employment and manpower, and demographics of the field), and the organization and support of physics (government, university, and industry research; facilities; national laboratories; and decision making). An executive summary contains recommendations for maintaining excellence in physics. A glossary of scientific terms is appended.

  9. Physics through the 1990s: An overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    The volume details the interaction of physics and society, and presents a short summary of the progress in the major fields of physics and a summary of the other seven volumes of the Physics through the 1990s series, issues and recommended policy changes are described regarding funding, education, industry participation, small-group university research and large facility programs, government agency programs, and computer database needs. Three supplements report in detail on international issues in physics (the US position in the field, international cooperation and competition-especially on large projects, freedom for scientists, free flow of information, and education of foreign students), the education and supply of physicists (the changes in US physics education, employment and manpower, and demographics of the field), and the organization and support of physics (government, university, and industry research; facilities; national laboratories; and decision making). An executive summary contains recommendations for maintaining excellence in physics. A glossary of scientific terms is appended.

  10. Explosive Welding in the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lalwaney, N. S.; Linse, V. D.

    1985-01-01

    Explosive bonding is a unique joining process with the serious potential to produce composite materials capable of fulfilling many of the high performance materials capable of fulfilling many of the high performance materials needs of the 1990's. The process has the technological versatility to provide a true high quality metallurgical compatible and incompatible systems. Metals routinely explosively bonded include a wide variety of combinations of reactive and refractory metals, low and high density metals and their alloys, corrosion resistant and high strength alloys, and common steels. The major advantage of the process is its ability to custom design and engineer composites with physical and/or mechanical properties that meet a specific or unusual performance requirement. Explosive bonding offers the designer unique opportunities in materials selection with unique combinations of properties and high integrity bonds that cannot be achieved by any other metal joining process. The process and some applications are discussed.

  11. Computing possibilities in the mid 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Nash, T.

    1988-09-01

    This paper describes the kind of computing resources it may be possible to make available for experiments in high energy physics in the mid and late 1990s. We outline some of the work going on today, particularly at Fermilab's Advanced Computer Program, that projects to the future. We attempt to define areas in which coordinated R and D efforts should prove fruitful to provide for on and off-line computing in the SSC era. Because of extraordinary components anticipated from industry, we can be optimistic even to the level of predicting million VAX equivalent on-line multiprocessor/data acquisition systems for SSC detectors. Managing this scale of computing will require a new approach to large hardware and software systems. 15 refs., 6 figs.

  12. Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stauffer, Cheryl Lynn, Ed.

    This booklet focuses on eight elements of population dynamics: "Population Growth and Distribution"; "Natural Increase and Future Growth"; "Effect of Migration on Population Growth"; "Three Patterns of Population Change"; "Patterns of World Urbanization"; "The Status of Women";…

  13. Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, J.; Monson, D.; Schneider, K.

    2006-01-01

    3In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at some islands in the 1960s/70s to < 5% of estimated carrying capacity by the late 1990s. The results of this study indicate an improved overall health of sea otters over the period of decline and suggest that limited nutritional resources were not the cause of the observed reduced population abundance. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the decline was caused by increased killer whale predation.

  14. Population Growth: Stretching the Limits.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brouse, Deborah E.

    1990-01-01

    Three population education activities that can be used to illustrate the effects of uncontrolled population growth are presented. Included are "Crowding Can Be Seedy," which uses seeds; "Something for Everyone," which illustrates competition for resources; and "More or Less," which illustrates the relationship between humans and the environment.…

  15. Mars exploration in the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albee, A. L.

    1984-01-01

    Science objectives for a Mars exploration program in the 1990s, set forth by NASA's Committee on Planetary Exploration, are presented. They include: an intensive study of the Martian surface, the exploration of the structure and general circulation of the atmosphere, the exploration of the nature and dynamics of the planet's interior, the nature of Mars's magnetic field, the character of the upper atmosphere and its interaction with the solar wind, and the establishment of the global chemical and physical characteristics of the Martian surface. Several low cost missions, which have been suggested by the Committee for NASA's CORE program, such as the Mars Geoscience Climatology Observer, the Mars Aeronomy Orbiter, and the Mars Surface Network and Surface Probing missions are also covered. Direct Entry-Direct Return and Out-of-Orbit Entry-Orbital Rendezvous and Docking are two versions of a Mars Rover and Sample Return (MRSR) mission discussed in detail. It is concluded that a MRSR mission will require the combination of full Centaur capability, aerocapture at Mars and earth, and direct return to earth to meet major scientific goals. Further studies should be made in orbit assembly, fuel transfer technology, aeromaneuvering, terminal guidance, rover technology, and robotics.

  16. Population growth, inequality and poverty.

    PubMed

    Rodgers, G

    1983-01-01

    In this discussion of population growth, inequality, and poverty, the type of relationships that can be observed in intercountry comparisons are explored, reviewing the findings of several other authors, presenting some new estimates using an International Labor Office data bank, considering some basic conceptual problems, and examining some of the theoretical and empirical issues that call for investigation at the national level. Intercountry comparisons, despite their limitations, appear to be the easiest starting point for empirical analysis. The approach adopted by most researchers has been to select 1 or more population indicators and a measure of national income inequality and to explain intercountry differences in 1 or both of these variables in terms of each other and of other indicators of economic and social development. Underlying this methodology is the assumption that there are aspects of demographic and economic change that are common to all countries included in the study, so that differences between countries give some guide to the likely evolution over time within any 1 country. This can be accepted at best with reservations, but given the scarcity of data on the evolution of inequality over time, a working hypothesis of this type appears unavoidable. But, as many of the factors likely to cause population growth and inequality operate over extended periods of time, a dynamic model is indicated. A simpler model, which pays particular attention to lags and variations over time, may generate new insights. A summary of the results of a new international cross-section analysis set up on these lines is presented. Results suggest that contrary to expectations, reducing population growth does not seem to generate longterm benefits for the poor in this model, though some short term gains are found. Increasing equality does appear to generate some decline in population growth, as well as persistent gains in incomes among the poor, but the reductions in

  17. Aerosol Blanket Likely Thinned During 1990s

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    Each day, a blanket of tiny particles drifting through the Earth's atmosphere filters out some of the sunlight headed for the planet's surface. These aerosols, including dust, smoke, and human-produced pollution, can reflect incoming light or absorb it, directly affecting the Earth's energy balance and climate. Aerosols also influence the climate indirectly, by affecting the brightness and amount of clouds. Research by NASA scientists on global aerosol patterns since the 1990s indicate the global aerosol blanket has likely thinned, allowing more sunlight to reach the Earth's surface over the past decade. The thinning of the blanket is shown by this trio of images based on satellite observations of aerosol optical thickness, a measurement that scientists use to describe how much the aerosols filter the incoming sunlight. Higher optical thickness (orange and red) means more sunlight blocking. The globes show average aerosol optical thickness for 1988-1991 (top), 2002-2005 (middle), and the change between the two time periods (bottom). Overall, the 1988-1991 image appears redder, a sign that aerosols were blocking more incoming sunlight; the 2002-2005 image has more light yellow areas. In the bottom image, small pockets of red (increased aerosol optical thickness), mostly near land masses in the Northern Hemisphere, are far outnumbered by blue areas (decreased aerosol optical thickness). Because they block incoming sunlight from reaching Earth's surface, aerosols may counterbalance greenhouse gas warming. The decline in the dimming power of aerosols over the past decade may have made the greenhouse warming trend more evident in the past decade than in previous decades. The scientists describe their results as a 'likely' trend because the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite sensors they used in their analysis were not specifically designed to observe aerosols, and may contain some errors. However, specific, major aerosol events, such as large

  18. Nonmetro Poverty: Assessing the Effect of the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jolliffe, Dean

    2003-01-01

    During the 1990s, the poverty rate in nonmetropolitan areas declined to a record low of 13.4 percent. Drawing on census data, aspects of nonmetro poverty during the 1990s are outlined, including effects of urbanization, regional differences, racial and ethnic differences, importance of family structure, needs for assistance and human services,…

  19. NASA scientific and technical information for the 1990s

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cotter, Gladys A.

    1990-01-01

    Projections for NASA scientific and technical information (STI) in the 1990s are outlined. NASA STI for the 1990s will maintain a quality bibliographic and full-text database, emphasizing electronic input and products supplemented by networked access to a wide variety of sources, particularly numeric databases.

  20. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  1. Population Growth: Family Planning Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doberenz, Alexander R., Ed.; Taylor, N. Burwell G., Ed.

    These proceedings of the second annual symposium on population growth bring together speeches and panel discussions on family planning programs. Titles of speeches delivered are: Communicating Family Planning (Mrs. Jean Hutchinson); Effects of New York's Abortion Law Change (Dr. Walter Rogers); The Law and Birth Control, Sterilization and Abortion…

  2. Nutrition, Development, and Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Alan

    1973-01-01

    Focuses on the problem of malnutrition in developing countries through a description of its interrelationships with human development, national economies, economic growth and income, agricultural advances, the crisis in infant feeding practices, new foods, and the population dilemma. Outlines possible future policy directions to significantly…

  3. Political economy of population growth.

    PubMed

    Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

    1987-01-01

    Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

  4. Anomalous Growth of Aging Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.

    2016-04-01

    We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability q_k depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's "age" in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities q_k at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.

  5. Environmental impact of population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naylor, Rosamond; Matson, Pamela

    Earth's population currently numbers 5.4 billion; even given optimistic assumptions for reduction in growth rates, the number will double by the middle of the next century with most of the increase in the developing countries. Rapid population growth in the developing world raises the fundamental dilemma of how to alleviate chronic hunger and poverty in the short run while preserving the atmosphere and ecosystem services required for long-term human and biospheric sustenance. This dilemma, and the compromises required to solve it, were discussed by twenty-five researchers from five countries at the Aspen Global Change Institute 1992 Summer Science Session III, Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible?, held from August 16 to 28, in Aspen, Colo.

  6. Patterns of dynamic urban population growth in Russia, 1989-1996: a research report.

    PubMed

    Rowland, R H

    1997-01-01

    "The purpose of this paper is to investigate locations in which rapid urban growth occurred in Russia over the period 1989 to 1996....Particular emphasis will be given to the geographical patterns, economic functions, and population size of rapidly growing towns. In addition, the discussion of trends for 1989-1996 also will be briefly preceded by and compared to those of 1979-1989, although the paper will emphasize trends during the 1990s. Furthermore, the topic of ¿new towns', which themselves often are rapidly growing centers, will be addressed as well."

  7. World Food Prospects for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tarrant, John R.

    1990-01-01

    Addresses world hunger issues and the increasing world population. Sees continued imbalance between supply and demand. Points out Europe and the United States are dealing with surplus production, whereas developing nations continue to import needed food. Argues solving hunger problems requires eliminating poverty through development programs.…

  8. Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia.

    PubMed

    Greenspan, A

    1994-12-01

    Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water

  9. Population growth and global warming.

    PubMed

    Short, R V

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming - the oral contraceptive pill.

  10. The Bellagio Declaration: overcoming hunger in the 1990's.

    PubMed

    Alloo, F; Arizpe, L; Belford, T S; Clark, J; Csanadi, J; Davies, P J; Emmerij, L; George, S; Hyden, G; Jonsson, U

    1989-01-01

    In November 1989, 23 leading hunger experts met in Bellagio, Italy, issues a document called the "Bellagio Declaration: Overcoming Hunger in the 1990s." The report lists 4 achievable goals: eliminate famine deaths; end hunger in half of the world's poorest households; reduce by half malnutrition of mothers and small children; and eradicate iodine and vitamin A deficiencies. Famine deaths can be eliminated by setting up early-warning systems and longer-term relief objectives. The only remaining obstacle is how to prevent warring nations from blocking food deliveries and destroying food. Hunger can be eliminated in half the world's poor households by giving the poor access to resources and credit, rehabilitating degraded ecosystems, using sustainable farming, and using existing markets to distribute food equitably. Malnutrition can be halved by sustained breastfeeding, and supplementation of food and micronutrients. Iodine and vitamin A deficiencies can be eliminated by giving iodized oil injections, vitamin A capsules and iodized salt. Ways of dealing with obstacles such as population, deforestation, soil and water shortages, pollution, global warming and capital deficits in the South are discussed. There is hope that these goals can be attained because of the outbreak of peace and democracy, freeing up substantial portions of the 1 trillion US dollars spent on defense; abatement of feat of worldwide economic collapse; and evolution of a worldwide logistic system to provide emergency food aid.

  11. The challenge of population growth.

    PubMed

    Smith, A W

    1984-03-02

    A precarious balance exists on earth between food and people, and at this time 800 million people are starving or close to starvation. When agriculture began, say 10,000 years ago, human populations were low. They stayed roughly in balance with the food supply. After agriculture, food supplies increased as did populations. The discovery of the New World opened vast resources, more land. Human numbers began to climb. Inventions and machines increased the ability to exploit resources. With modern medicine came a decline in death rates while birthrates remained high. The result is the 20th century population now totals 4.7 billion. By 2000, it will probably reach 6.1 billion and 7.8 billion by 2020. There will be insufficient cropland to produce the food all these people will need. People have been moving into sprawling urban centers of the poor countries. They come in search of jobs because there is not enough land to support them in rural areas. They increase the numbers of the unemployed and live in squalid shanty towns. Each agricultural or industrial advance that has occurred has been overwhelmed by ever increasing numbers of people in many less developed nations. There appears to be no "catching up" with the world's soaring rate of population. About 40 years ago this dilemma began to alarm some people. Fairfield Osborn and William Vogt believed that food and economic aid should continue but would be only a stopgap until developing countries were able to control their population growth. This meant cutting the birthrate. They reasoned that the best way to accomplish this was to educate people about contraceptives and other methods of limiting fertility. Private foundations funded educational programs, and many governments began giving out contraceptives at little or no cost. Despite such efforts, populations continued to increase in places that could least support more people. Already controversial, population control programs began to offer various incentives to

  12. U.S. Hispanics: challenging issues for the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Valdivieso, R; Davis, C

    1988-12-01

    Hispanics are the largest minority in the US after blacks and, as a poor and disadvantaged minority, face many problems and challenges with which they must deal in the future. There has been a 34% increase in the US Hispanic population from 1980-1988 due to heavy immigration and high birth rates, resulting in a young age structure for Latinos with a median age of 25.5 years vs. the US median of 32.2 years. US Latinos are a very diverse group which includes Mexicans (62%), Puerto Ricans (13%), Cubans (5%), and Central and South Americans (12%), although they tend to be clustered in very few states. Discrimination has plagued this population because of illegal immigration concerns and illegal drug flow problems. Hispanics continue to suffer from poor educational achievement, language barriers, low-paying jobs, and poverty. Cubans have made the most progress so far in all of these areas. Poverty will likely persist into the 1990's. Bilingualism is and will be prevalent as long as immigration continues, but future generations will begin to use English as their 1st language. 17 states, however, have adopted "official English" laws in order to decrease the use of funds for Spanish language services. Using Spanish in school is a very divided issue--some favor bilingual education, some favor the shot-gun English approach. As Hispanics grow into work force age, lack of education will prevent entry into skilled labor. Corporations, however, are taking a bigger interest in bilingual workers. Nationally, Hispanics are beginning to matter as an electorate. The number of Latino elected officials has doubled from 1974 to 1988. The 1990 census may show us that we have been underestimating the number of Hispanics in the US. A higher percentage of future Latin immigrants will be better educated. Policymakers should recognize Hispanic problems and help to promote solutions, in the interest of the American people as a whole.

  13. Decline of subpolar North Atlantic circulation during the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Häkkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B

    2004-04-23

    Observations of sea surface height reveal that substantial changes have occurred over the past decade in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean. TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data show that subpolar sea surface height increased during the 1990s, and the geostrophic velocity derived from altimeter data exhibits declining subpolar gyre circulation. Combining the data from earlier satellites, we find that subpolar circulation may have been weaker in the late 1990s than in the late 1970s and 1980s. Direct current-meter observations in the boundary current of the Labrador Sea support the weakening circulation trend of the 1990s and, together with hydrographic data, show that the mid- to late 1990s decline extends deep in the water column. Analysis of the local surface forcing suggests that the 1990s buoyancy forcing has a dynamic effect consistent with altimetric and hydrographic observations: A weak thermohaline forcing allows the decay of the domed structure of subpolar isopycnals and weakening of circulation.

  14. Analysis of residential, industrial and commercial sector responses to potential electricity supply constraints in the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Fisher, Z.J.; Fang, J.M.; Lyke, A.J.; Krudener, J.R.

    1986-09-01

    There is considerable debate over the ability of electric generation capacity to meet the growing needs of the US economy in the 1990s. This study provides new perspective on that debate and examines the possibility of power outages resulting from electricity supply constraints. Previous studies have focused on electricity supply growth, demand growth, and on the linkages between electricity and economic growth. This study assumes the occurrence of electricity supply shortfalls in the 1990s and examines the steps that homeowners, businesses, manufacturers, and other electricity users might take in response to electricity outages.

  15. Global environmental security: Research and policy strategies for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Lazaro, M.A.; Wang, Hua

    1992-09-01

    The subject of global environmental change is emerging as one of the most hotly debated international issues for the 1990s. In fact, our earth system has undergone a nature-induced gradual change in climate on both a temporal scale that spans over millions of years and a spatial scale ranging from regional to transcontinental. Pollutant emissions associated with population growth and industrial activities manifest the anthropogenic climatic forcing that has been superimposed on the background of natural climate fluctuations. Our incomplete understanding of the global impacts of environmental pollution on the earth systems (atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere), however, make the prediction of the timing, magnitude, and patterns of future global change uncertain. This paper examines the science and policy background of global environmental change. The major scientific uncertainties and policy issues confronting decision makers are identified; and the scientific framework, as well as current national and international research programs aimed at resolving the scientific uncertainties, are discussed. A coherent, stable, and flexible policy is needed to provide a foundation for coordinated international-interagency programs of observation, research, analysis, and international negotiation toward a policy consensus concerning global environmental security. On the basis of what is currently known about global change, recommendations are presented on both near-term and long-term policy option decisions.

  16. Global environmental security: Research and policy strategies for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Lazaro, M.A.; Wang, Hua.

    1992-01-01

    The subject of global environmental change is emerging as one of the most hotly debated international issues for the 1990s. In fact, our earth system has undergone a nature-induced gradual change in climate on both a temporal scale that spans over millions of years and a spatial scale ranging from regional to transcontinental. Pollutant emissions associated with population growth and industrial activities manifest the anthropogenic climatic forcing that has been superimposed on the background of natural climate fluctuations. Our incomplete understanding of the global impacts of environmental pollution on the earth systems (atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere), however, make the prediction of the timing, magnitude, and patterns of future global change uncertain. This paper examines the science and policy background of global environmental change. The major scientific uncertainties and policy issues confronting decision makers are identified; and the scientific framework, as well as current national and international research programs aimed at resolving the scientific uncertainties, are discussed. A coherent, stable, and flexible policy is needed to provide a foundation for coordinated international-interagency programs of observation, research, analysis, and international negotiation toward a policy consensus concerning global environmental security. On the basis of what is currently known about global change, recommendations are presented on both near-term and long-term policy option decisions.

  17. Problems and Prospects of Turkey in the 1990s

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-04-01

    sianificant pillar of the European economic. deience. and social structure. VI - 2 NOTES 1. Karabulut, Orhan . "The Turkish Navy in the 1990s." NATO’s...Kamran. "The South-East Anatolia Project." Turkish Review (Spring 1989) Ankara-Turkey Karabulut, Orhan . Adm. "The Turkish Navy in the 1990s.0 NATO’s...SCALE 1 :25SO0000 PROJECTION UNIVERSAL TRANSVERSE MERCATOR ULTM) 2𔃼*24, 25- 6 27* 2. I.to Im,wiaa Weua (AWin 871 %)I B U L G A R IA 6*4 wwa j*am.Ap

  18. Oil demand and prices in the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, S.P.A.; Phillips, K.R.

    1989-01-01

    Current oil prices are too low to be sustained in the 1990s. The authors forecast that by the year 2000, the price of oil (in 1988 dollars) could reach $30 to $40 per barrel; adjusted for inflation, these prices are about 60 to 80% of the peak price established in early 1981. They find that during the 1980s a slow adjustment process, encouraged by OPEC actions, reduced oil demand and put downward pressure on prices. They expect reversal of that process in the 1990s will work, with world economic expansion to boost oil demand and prices. 10 references, 6 figures, 2 tables.

  19. Population and growth causality in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Kapuria-foreman, V

    1995-07-01

    This study empirically tests the null hypotheses of no causality between population growth and economic growth and of no causality between economic growth and population growth in 15 developing countries. The model follows the Cheng Hsiao form with lag lengths to minimize Akaike's Final Prediction Error (FPE). Equations are run separately for each country. Lag lengths and Granger causality test were chosen according to three steps. 1) Each of the variables was regressed on its own lagged values with a maximum lag of five years. A lag length was chosen that minimized FPE, which was calculated for each regression. 2) Bivariate regressions were run with a fixed lag length for population growth and mixed lag lengths for the other variable, until the lag length which minimized FPE was determined. 3) The last step involved checking the lag length of population growth by keeping the lag fixed for economic growth. The economic growth measure was gross domestic product per capita. Findings indicate that in seven countries the null hypothesis of no causality between population growth and economic growth, either positive or negative, cannot be rejected (Ghana, Sri Lanka, Bolivia, Philippines, Syria, Thailand, and Argentina). In Nepal, India, China, Guatemala, Peru, Turkey, Chile, and Mexico lagged values of population growth improve predictions of economic growth. Higher economic growth has no significant effect on population growth rates in Nepal, Bolivia, Philippines, Guatemala, Peru, Thailand, Argentina, and Mexico. Interaction between economic growth and population growth was found in India, China, Turkey, and Chile. The direction of causation tests indicate that population growth has a significant positive impact on income growth in China, Guatemala, Turkey, Chile, and Mexico. India shows a negative impact of population growth on income. A significant negative impact of economic growth on population growth is evident only in Sri Lanka. There is weak evidence of a

  20. Shakespeare for the 1990s: A Multicultural Tempest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carey-Webb, Allen

    1993-01-01

    Argues that William Shakespeare's "The Tempest" is the play that is best suited for the high school English curriculum of the 1990s. Discusses historical and critical aspects the play's key themes. Shows ways of using the play in high school classes, and describes 19 works to read alongside of"The Tempest." (HB)

  1. Prospects for Physics in the 1990's Surveyed.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robinson, Arthur L.

    1986-01-01

    A National Academy of Science report ("Physics Through the 1990's") says that American physics has been a highly diversified and productive enterprise, but continued excellence cannot be taken for granted. Progress in six subfields (elementary particle, nuclear, condensed-matter, atomic/molecular, plasma/fluid, and gravitation/cosmology physics)…

  2. Women's Studies in the 1990s: Problems and Prospects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allen, Judith

    1991-01-01

    This speech examines women's studies in Australia in the 1970s and 1980s, limitations and problems facing women's studies in the 1990s, and prospects. Discussed are effects of the "Dawkins Revolution," women's studies and feminist scholarship, women's studies curricula, institutional problems, political problems, and the changing faculty…

  3. Transpersonal Social Work: A Theory for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cowley, Au-Deane S.

    1993-01-01

    Notes that transpersonal psychology contains growing body of literature and theory related to spiritual dimension of human nature and higher states of consciousness. Sees this approach as especially relevant for social work practitioners who are combating social ills of 1990s that manifest as violence, addiction, and spiritual malaise. (Author/NB)

  4. Korean Higher Education Reforms and Changes since the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oh, Yun Suk

    2011-01-01

    Korean higher education has experienced significant changes since the 1990s. Terms like quality, excellence, competition, efficiency, restructuring, and accountability have become dominant in higher education discourse. These changes are integral parts of higher education reforms implemented by the South Korean government and higher educational…

  5. Changing Contexts for Counselor Preparation in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hackney, Harold, Ed.

    The five chapters in this monograph provide guidelines for counselors in the 1990s who will be faced with such societal issues as substance abuse, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), teenage pregnancy, youth unemployment, homelessness, crime and delinquency, and school dropouts. "The Contemporary Counselor in a Changed World" (Harold…

  6. Population growth rates: issues and an application.

    PubMed Central

    Godfray, H Charles J; Rees, Mark

    2002-01-01

    Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering. PMID:12396521

  7. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  8. Improved zircon iron corals for the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Decker, C. )

    1992-03-01

    CIBA-GEIGY/Drakenfeld Colors is dedicated to the research and development of consistent and cost-effective ceramic stains for the whitewares industry. After identifying the trends in color for the 1990s. CIBA-GEIGY/Drakenfeld Colors initiated an extensive R D project to improve zircon ion corals for the whitewares industry. These color trends indicated a need for stronger and cleaner zircon iron corals. This paper discusses the chemistry and crystal structure of zircon iron corals. A historical review of Drakenfeld corals will also be presented. The most recent development in Drakenfeld corals will then be compared to other commercially available zircon iron corals. Taking into consideration these comparisons, conclusions will be drawn suggesting the coral of choice for the 1990s.

  9. Population growth and earth's human carrying capacity.

    PubMed

    Cohen, J E

    1995-07-21

    Earth's capacity to support people is determined both by natural constraints and by human choices concerning economics, environment, culture (including values and politics), and demography. Human carrying capacity is therefore dynamic and uncertain. Human choice is not captured by ecological notions of carrying capacity that are appropriate for nonhuman populations. Simple mathematical models of the relation between human population growth and human carrying capacity can account for faster-than-exponential population growth followed by a slowing population growth rate, as observed in recent human history.

  10. Teaching the Vietnam War in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franklin, H. Bruce

    For an instructor who has been teaching the Vietnam War for over 30 years, the War has been teaching him for even longer. One of the objectives in teaching the Vietnam War in the 1990s is what it meant to teach the Vietnam War in the 1960s. It is easy to forget that the antiwar movement began as an attempt to educate the government and the nation,…

  11. A Strategic Planning Process for NATO for the 1990s

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-06-01

    This thesis deals with the possible shifts in NATO’s strategy for the rest of the 1990s. It uses a strategic planning model to explore these possible...shift’s in strategy. Strategic planning is a systematic process of defining the mission and the objectives and creating action plans, policies and...resource allocations to achieve them. Every organization should initiate strategic planning in order to address the evolving needs of its stakeholders

  12. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    PubMed

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  13. Determinants of Police Strength in Large U.S. Cities during the 1990s: A Fixed-Effects Panel Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCarty, William P.; Ren, Ling; Zhao, Jihong

    2012-01-01

    The 1990s represented a unique decade in which to analyze the determinants of police strength in the United States. This decade was a time in which crime initially increased, then substantially decreased. Furthermore, this decade also was characterized by increases in the minority population throughout large American cities. Finally, the 1990s…

  14. Metropolitan population growth in Arab countries.

    PubMed

    Vaidyanathan, K E

    1977-01-01

    A study or urban population growth in Arab countries has 3 objectives: 1) examination at the micro level of recent demographic trends in selected metropolitan areas of the Arab world and their relationship to changes in the total and urban populations in the respective countries; 2) estimation of net migration by sex and broad age groups for each metropolitan area; and 3) analysis of the pattern of variation in the metropolitan growth rates and their components, migration and natural increase. The study covers the cities proper or urban agglomerations, which includes the suburbs, whose population exceeded 100,000 in the most recent census. Altogether, the study covers 49 metropolitan areas from 9 Arab countries--Algeria; Morocco; Tunisia; Libya; Egypt; Sudan; Syria; Iraq; and Kuwait. Analysis revealed that metropolitan growth rates do follow geographic patterns. In countries with an oil-based economy, metropolitan growth rates are high; in countries with unexploited resources they are slightly below the 1st group; and countries which have pressure on land have low metropolitan growth rates. Population size of the metropolitan area appears to be an important factor associated with variations in metropolitan growth rates and net migration rates. Natural increase emerges as the predominant factor in metropolitan growth, but the differentials in the growth rates are more clearly associated with variations in net migration rates. As all the possibilities of analysis of relationships of metropolitan growth have not been exhausted, it is proposed to examine additional variables as possible factors associated with the speed of metropolitan growth.

  15. Population Bulletin. World Population Projections: Alternative Paths to Zero Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peck, Jennifer Marks

    1974-01-01

    This report is an adaptation of selected parts of a book on world population projections by Tomas Frejka. An explanation of the demographic terms that form a foundation for these projections is included, as well as discussions of the growth potentials for 24 nations throughout the world. Frejka's projections for a nongrowing population have been…

  16. Growth rate, population entropy, and perturbation theory.

    PubMed

    Demetrius, L

    1989-04-01

    This paper is concerned with the connection between two classes of population variables: measures of population growth rate--the Malthusian parameter, the net reproduction rate, the gross reproduction rate, and the mean life expectancy; and measures of demographic heterogeneity--population entropy. It is shown that the entropy functions predict the response of the growth rate parameters to perturbations in the age-specific fecundity and mortality schedule. These results are invoked to introduce the notion of environmental intensity. The intensity function, expressed in terms of the entropy parameters, is applied to give a comparative study of the effect of environmental factors on the dynamics of Swedish and French populations.

  17. A Revisionist Look at Population and Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holden, Constance

    1986-01-01

    Presents highlights from a National Research Council report titled "Population Growth and Economic Questions: Policy Questions." Includes brief comments on the report's conclusions related to exhaustible resources, renewable resources, pollution, work productivity, economics of scale and technological innovation, schooling, income…

  18. Physics through the 1990s: Condensed-matter physics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The volume presents the current status of condensed-matter physics from developments since the 1970s to opportunities in the 1990s. Topics include electronic structure, vibrational properties, critical phenomena and phase transitions, magnetism, semiconductors, defects and diffusion, surfaces and interfaces, low-temperature physics, liquid-state physics, polymers, nonlinear dynamics, instabilities, and chaos. Appendices cover the connections between condensed-matter physics and applications of national interest, new experimental techniques and materials, laser spectroscopy, and national facilities for condensed-matter physics research. The needs of the research community regarding support for individual researchers and for national facilities are presented, as are recommendations for improved government-academic-industrial relations.

  19. Education of clinical engineers in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Bronzino, J D

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents definitions of the terms bioengineering, biomedical engineering and clinical engineering. These definitions lead to the conclusion that clinical engineers must be individuals with at least a four-year bachelor's degree in an engineering specialty who are also well versed in the design, modification and testing of medical instrumentation. Educational programs for clinical engineers in the 1990s must be based upon clear definitions of these professionals' roles. Clinical engineering education should include direct professional experience obtained through internship programs similar to the program described here.

  20. Mission Control Center enhancement opportunities in the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartman, Wayne

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for understanding the major enhancement opportunities for Air Force Mission Control Center/Test Support Centers (MCC's/TSC's) in the 1990's. Much of this paper is based on the findings of Study 232 and work currently underway in Study 2-6 for the Air Force Systems Command, Space System Division, Network Program Office. In this paper, we will address MCC/TSC enhancement needs primarily from the operator perspective, in terms of the increased capabilities required to improve space operations task performance.

  1. Helioseismology in the 1980s and 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goode, Philip R.

    2014-02-01

    Over more than twenty years, Wojtek Dziembowski and I collaborated on nearly fifty papers, which were concentrated in helioseismology through the 1980s and 1990s, but extended early into the new century. In this review, I discuss the most significant results of this collaboration and some of the underlying sociology that contributed to the intensity and longevity of our collaboration. Our work began with placing limits on the Sun's buried magnetic field and ended with extracting from the solar-cycle dependent oscillation frequency changes the roles (and net result) of competing dynamical drivers of changes in the solar diameter.

  2. The containment of world population growth.

    PubMed

    Caldwell, J C

    1975-12-01

    The world has reached the present position of unprecedentedly rapid population growth not by achieving uniquely high fertility but by bringing about extraordinarily low mortality. The high growth rate and the built-in momentum of the age structure are obstacles to achievement of an acceptable standard of living for most of the world's population. Although government population programs have the potential to curb this growth rate, this potential has not been realized, and such programs are too often perceived both by their administrators and the population concerned as an end in themselves rather than a means toward a better standard of living. It is in this latter perspective, and in the context of the total development process, that population programs should be implemented.

  3. Population growth and development: the Kenyan experience.

    PubMed

    Nyamwange, M

    1995-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Kenya and high fertility impacts negatively on economic development. The growth and high fertility results in declines in gross national product, per capita food consumption, and land quality; a high dependency ratio; urban crowding; and inadequate health systems. East Africa has the highest crude birth rates in Africa, and Kenya has the highest birth rate of 54/1000 population in East Africa. The African crude death rate is 50% higher than the world average, but Kenya's death rate is the lowest in East Africa and comparable to North American and European death rates. Kenya has the highest rate of natural increase of about 4%. Population growth rates rose over the decades. Kenya's average population density is well above the sub-Saharan African average and much lower than very high density countries. Population is unequally distributed. Regional densities are widely divergent, and the highest densities in Western province are well above densities in Rwanda and Burundi. Urban growth has increased, as has migration to urban areas. Nairobi has 57% of urban population. Improved health and nutrition have contributed to increased life expectancy. The desired family size is large. The impact of demographic factors on economic conditions is evident in the decline in gross national product per capita growth to under 1% during 1972-88. A slight upswing occurred during 1988-93, but other crises are emerging. Food production has not kept pace with population growth. Production has been low due to serious land degradation, short fallow periods, and traditional farming practices. Population pressure has forced families to shift agriculture onto marginal lands, and desertification has increased. A growing proportion of the population is unemployed or underemployed. Population programs should address the underlying conditions for fertility decline.

  4. Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Adair

    2009-01-01

    Rapid population growth continues in the least developed countries. The revisionist case that rapid population could be overcome by technology, that population density was advantageous, that capital shallowing is not a vital concern and that empirical investigations had not proved a correlation between high population growth and low per capita income was both empirically and theoretically flawed. In the modern world, population density does not play the role it did in nineteenth-century Europe and rates of growth in some of today's least developed nations are four times than those in nineteenth-century Europe, and without major accumulation of capital per capita, no major economy has or is likely to make the low- to middle-income transition. Though not sufficient, capital accumulation for growth is absolutely essential to economic growth. While there are good reasons for objecting to the enforced nature of the Chinese one-child policy, we should not underestimate the positive impact which that policy has almost certainly had and will have over the next several decades on Chinese economic performance. And a valid reticence about telling developing countries that they must contain fertility should not lead us to underestimate the severely adverse impact of high fertility rates on the economic performance and prospects of many countries in Africa and the Middle East. PMID:19770149

  5. Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth.

    PubMed

    Turner, Adair

    2009-10-27

    Rapid population growth continues in the least developed countries. The revisionist case that rapid population could be overcome by technology, that population density was advantageous, that capital shallowing is not a vital concern and that empirical investigations had not proved a correlation between high population growth and low per capita income was both empirically and theoretically flawed. In the modern world, population density does not play the role it did in nineteenth-century Europe and rates of growth in some of today's least developed nations are four times than those in nineteenth-century Europe, and without major accumulation of capital per capita, no major economy has or is likely to make the low- to middle-income transition. Though not sufficient, capital accumulation for growth is absolutely essential to economic growth. While there are good reasons for objecting to the enforced nature of the Chinese one-child policy, we should not underestimate the positive impact which that policy has almost certainly had and will have over the next several decades on Chinese economic performance. And a valid reticence about telling developing countries that they must contain fertility should not lead us to underestimate the severely adverse impact of high fertility rates on the economic performance and prospects of many countries in Africa and the Middle East.

  6. Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments.

    PubMed

    Evans, Steven N; Ralph, Peter L; Schreiber, Sebastian J; Sen, Arnab

    2013-02-01

    Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. For sedentary populations in a spatially homogeneous yet temporally variable environment, a simple model of population growth is a stochastic differential equation dZ(t) = μZ(t)dt + σZ(t)dW(t), t ≥ 0, where the conditional law of Z(t+Δt)-Z(t) given Z(t) = z has mean and variance approximately z μΔt and z²σ²Δt when the time increment Δt is small. The long-term stochastic growth rate lim(t→∞) t⁻¹ log Z(t) for such a population equals μ − σ²/2 . Most populations, however, experience spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study an analogous model X(t) = (X¹(t) , . . . , X(n)(t)), t ≥ 0, for the population abundances in n patches: the conditional law of X(t+Δt) given X(t) = x is such that the conditional mean of X(i)(t+Δt) − X(i)(t) is approximately [x(i)μ(i) + Σ(j) (x(j) D(ji) − x(i) D(i j) )]Δt where μ(i) is the per capita growth rate in the ith patch and D(ij) is the dispersal rate from the ith patch to the jth patch, and the conditional covariance of X(i)(t+Δt)− X(i)(t) and X(j)(t+Δt) − X(j)(t) is approximately x(i)x(j)σ(ij)Δt for some covariance matrix Σ = (σ(ij)). We show for such a spatially extended population that if S(t) = X¹(t)+· · ·+ X(n)(t) denotes the total population abundance, then Y(t) = X(t)/S(t), the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector Y(∞) as t → ∞, and the stochastic growth rate lim(t→∞) t⁻¹ log S(t) equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate Σ(i)μ(i)E[Y(i)(∞)] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation E[Σ(i,j) σ(i j)Y(i)(∞) Y(j)(∞)] experienced by the population. Using this characterization of the

  7. Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Steven N.; Ralph, Peter L.; Sen, Arnab

    2016-01-01

    Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. For sedentary populations in a spatially homogeneous yet temporally variable environment, a simple model of population growth is a stochastic differential equation dZt = μZtdt + σ ZtdWt, t ≥ 0, where the conditional law of Zt+Δt − Zt given Zt = z has mean and variance approximately zμΔt and z2σ2Δt when the time increment Δt is small. The long-term stochastic growth rate limt→∞ t−1 log Zt for such a population equals μ−σ22. Most populations, however, experience spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study an analogous model Xt=(Xt1,…,Xtn), t ≥ 0, for the population abundances in n patches: the conditional law of Xt+Δt given Xt = x is such that the conditional mean of Xt+Δti−Xti is approximately [xiμi +∑j (xj Dji − xi Dij)]Δt where μi is the per capita growth rate in the ith patch and Dij is the dispersal rate from the ith patch to the jth patch, and the conditional covariance of Xt+Δti−Xti and Xt+Δtj−Xtj is approximately xixjσijΔt for some covariance matrix Σ = (σij). We show for such a spatially extended population that if St=Xt1+⋯+Xtn denotes the total population abundance, then Yt = Xt /St, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector Y∞ as t → ∞, and the stochastic growth rate limt→∞ t−1 log St equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate ∑iμi𝔼[Y∞j] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation 𝔼[∑i,jσijY∞iY∞j] experienced by the population. Using this characterization of the stochastic growth rate, we derive an explicit expression for the stochastic growth rate for populations living in two patches, determine which

  8. Population growth and environmental degradation in Malawi.

    PubMed

    Kalipeni, E

    1992-01-01

    Malawi has been ranked by the World Bank as one of the poorest countries in Africa. Malawi's only resources are its people and fertile soil, which comprises about 55% of land area. Environmental degradation and population growth conditions in Malawi were used to illustrate the model of environmental degradation linked to population pressure on land resources and government development strategies that favored large-scale agricultural farms. The result has been deforestation, overgrazing, overuse of land for subsistence, and increased population density. The argument was that population growth in some developing countries has been so rapid that environmental collapse is the result. The theoretical framework linking population growth, environment, and resources emphasized processes: 1) the precursor stage of underlying causes; 2) the problem phase with potential ecological and economic decline; and 3) consequences (environmental decline, reduction in food production systems, and reduction in standard of living). The precursors were identified as an agrarian society, lack of a population policy, and emphasis on large families. The problems were rapid population growth and immigration from Mozambique, which led to increased demand for trees for fuel and consequent deforestation, increased demand for arable land and consequent landlessness, increased investment in livestock and consequent overgrazing, and continued population momentum which was a financial burden to government and resulted in increased labor competition. The ecological consequences were soil erosion, degradation of vegetation, and water supply contamination and decline. Eventually, famines will occur and lead to disease, migration, deserted villages, urbanization, unemployment, ethnic conflicts, and political unrest. Population was estimated at 8.75 million in 1990, with exponential growth expected. Completed family size was 6.6 children per woman. Even replacement fertility would mean growth for 50 more

  9. European Telecommunications Conference. Strategic Planning for the 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackburn, J. F.

    1990-06-01

    The European Telecommunications Conference Strategic Planning for the 1990s provided information to delegates and their companies on strategic planning for the European market, particularly after the advent of the European Single Market at the end of 1992. The conference objective was to examine the impact of the initiatives of the European Commission (EC) and the changing attitudes to service provision by public and private sector organizations on industry and marketing. Organized by Blenheim Online and Logica, 40 delegates attended this conference, mainly from Europe, but with a few from the U.S. The papers were designed to illuminate such questions as emerging market sectors, impact of U.S telecommunications organizations in Europe, mergers and acquisition, standards, and value-added services.

  10. ACTS Multibeam Communications Package - Technology for the 1990S

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graebner, John C.; Cashman, William F.

    1990-01-01

    To maintain its competitive position in the 1990s, satellite communications must evolve to provide new services and to reduce the costs of supplying existing services. NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) program is directed toward developing the technology base that will support this evolution. The ACTS communications payload is optimized for digital communications using a time-division multiple access format. Scanning spot-beam antennas provide high-performance on-demand service to the earth communication stations. On-board processing and switching allow full connectivity in a single-hop network architecture. ACTS employs Ka-band (30/20 GHz) links for communications traffic and includes techniques for mitigating rain fades. Scheduled to be launched by a Space Shuttle in 1992, ACTS will provide in-orbit technology verification and support experimental communications networks for up to four years.

  11. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  12. Population growth and sustainable development in China.

    PubMed

    Gui, S

    1998-12-01

    This article identifies the adverse impacts of population growth in China and offers suggestions for attaining sustainable development. Although China has below replacement level fertility, population will continue to increase. Chinese demographers project that the total fertility rate will average 2.1 each year until 2010, 2.1 until 2050, or 1.88 until 2010 and 1.6 during 2010-2050 under high, medium, and low variants, respectively. Total population would number 1.69 billion, 1.50 billion, or 1.46 billion under various projections, respectively, by 2050. Continued growth is expected to seriously slow economic development, to hinder improvements in the quality of and full use of human resources, to depress increases in per-capita economic development levels, and to impact on reasonable use of resources and environmental protection. The averting of 5 million births would save 35.5 billion yuan. Population growth has reduced the per-capita share of cultivated land from 0.19 to 0.08 hectares during 1952-95. There are about 150-190 million surplus rural laborers. Registered unemployment in cities was 3.1% in 1997. 11.5 million were laid-off workers. The working-age population will exceed 900 million during 2007-26. China's gross national product (GNP) was the 8th highest in the world in 1990, but its per-capita GNP was in 100th place. China's abundant natural resources are seriously reduced when population is considered. Environmental damage is already evident. Population growth needs to be controlled through family planning, an old-age social security program, and long-term population policies. Society needs healthier births and childbearing and better educated children.

  13. Keynes on population and economic growth.

    PubMed

    Toye, J

    1997-01-01

    This article discusses the evolution of Keynes's thinking on population based on an unpublished paper from 1914, "Is the Problem of Population a Pressing and Important One Now?" The paper is reported to have 39 pages, but in fact there are many missing page numbers. Keynes's "Essays in Biography" (1933) follows the basic structure and much of the verbal detail of the first 16 pages of "Population." Chapter 2 of the "Economic Consequences of the Peace" discusses the key ideas of "Population." The passages in "Population" and Chapter 2 were probably the sources of a fierce controversy in 1923-24 between Keynes and W.H. Beveridge over Keynes' neo-Malthusianism. "Population" was the basis for the three themes that were central to Keynes's writing on population. Keynes's framework shifted from a global perspective in "Population" to a progressively narrower focus in the 1930s on England and Wales. Keynes was stronger in his advocacy of birth control in "Population" compared to later writings. Keynes was concerned about the quality of population but disagreed on the methods of achieving this. Keynes argued that 75% of the world was not subject to Malthusian dynamics, and the other 25% had developed technology to relieve population pressure. "Population" sketches out the rudiments of the welfare implications of the great divide between North and South population growth rates. Keynes assumes that overpopulation in the South will be compensated for by the international market without consideration of income deficits. Keynes argues against pronatalism. The 1933 essay shows Keynes shift away from Malthus as population expert to Malthus as political economist. By 1937, Keynes had recanted and was very aware of the uncertainty of the economy. The author believes that it is unfortunate that this 1913-14 manuscript remains unknown and, if known, misunderstood.

  14. Oil and gas markets, companies, and technology in the 1990`s and beyond

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, J.L.

    1995-08-01

    During the late 1990`s and beyond, oil prices will be stagnant while costs increase, competition for markets and capital will be fierce, funds available for exploration and development will be limited, and environmental extremists will keep prospective areas off-limits. Higher taxes will limit growth in oil and gas demand and reapportion energy market shares. And a campaign to brand oil use as an ``addiction`` that must be cured will gather steam. But opportunities abound, too, even in the US High-quality properties are available throughout the US, independents can find and develop reserves cheaper than the majors, and new tools are available to reduce risks both in the field and in the market. Gas prices are firming and natural gas is often labeled the ``fuel of the future.`` To succeed in the petroleum industry of the 1990`s, all companies must accept change, be creative, and take initiative. To prosper, oil and gas producers and refiners and those who supply and serve the industry must face the new realities of the market. They cannot mark time until the return of 4,000 active rigs and $40/bbl oil. those days are never coming back. Never.

  15. UN lowers projection on future population growth.

    PubMed

    1999-01-01

    The new projections of future population growth released by the UN Population Division in late October 1998 are lower than previous projections. This has happened, as reported, owing to a number of reasons, including an expected increase in AIDS-related deaths. However, the projections suggest than even in the countries hardest hit by AIDS the population will keep growing because of continuing high birth rates. The projection, routinely updated every 2 years, suggests that the world will reach 6 billion in 1999. By the middle of the next century, global population will be between 7.3 and 10.7 billion. Under the medium variant projections reflecting a middle range of assumptions regarding future birth rates, the world would reach 8.9 billion in 2050. This is nearly half a billion lower than under the medium variant in the 1996 projections. Almost all future population growth, about 97%, is projected to occur in developing regions. Populations in the developed regions on the other hand are projected to stabilize and even decrease in some cases. By 2050 nearly 60 countries, including all of Europe, China and Japan, would experience a decline in population size according to the medium variant projections.

  16. Impact of demographic policy on population growth.

    PubMed

    Podyashchikh, P

    1968-01-01

    Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative

  17. The impact of population change on the growth of mega-cities.

    PubMed

    Guest, P

    1994-03-01

    The population dynamics of population growth in mega-cities and the contributions of migration to urban growth are described. The policy implications are identified as the need for a continued emphasis on fertility declines, because reductions will have a beneficial effect on reducing the pace of growth of mega-cities. The short-term goal of policy should be to provide urban contraceptive services to female migrants, who should be targeted specifically as a special group. Natural increase will be the main source of growth of mega-cities, and women who migrated during the 1990s will be a part of that natural increase. Reductions in population growth will make it easier for governments to provide services and to manage the large population size in mega-cities, which will continue to exist as long as economic activities are centralized and economic development promotes urbanization and spatial concentration. The emergence of mega-cities with populations of many millions has been a recent and increasing phenomena. The largest cities in 1980 were Tokyo with 16.9 million followed by New York City with 15.6 million. By 1990, the largest mega-cities were Mexico City with 20.2 million, Tokyo with 18.1 million, Sao Paulo with 17.4 million, and New York with 16.2 million. By the year 2000, the expectation is that Mexico City will have 25.6 million, Sao Paulo 22.1 million, Tokyo 19.0 million, Shanghai 17.0 million, and New York 16.8 million. The rankings will change, but the pattern clearly reflects the growth of mega-cities in developing countries. The age structure of urban populations is conducive to population growth. The main component of urban growth in Asia has been migration. Age structure changes have affected migration and will continue to affect fertility in mega-cities. Mega-cities will attract a young population because of the tourist and personnel services sectors which employ large numbers of young people, because of the demand for educated workers who tend to

  18. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  19. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  20. Cardiac Exposures in Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: 1950s-1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Carolyn W. Nisbet, Andrew; McGale, Paul; Darby, Sarah C.

    2007-12-01

    Purpose: To estimate the doses to the heart and coronary arteries from common breast cancer radiotherapy (RT) regimens used worldwide from the 1950s to the 1990s. Methods and Materials: Virtual simulation and computed tomography planning were used to reconstruct the megavoltage and electron regimens. Manual planning was used for the orthovoltage and brachytherapy regimens. Several sources of variability associated with the dose estimates were assessed. Results: Breast or chest wall RT resulted in whole heart doses of 0.9-14 Gy for left-sided and of 0.4-6 Gy for right-sided irradiation. Internal mammary chain RT delivered heart doses of 3-17 Gy and 2-10 Gy for left- and right-sided irradiation, respectively. For most regimens, the dose to the left anterior descending coronary artery was greater than the heart dose. Scar boost, supraclavicular fossa, and axillary RT delivered mean cardiac doses of {<=}3 Gy. The greatest source of variability in estimating dose from a given regimen was patient anatomy. Conclusion: For most techniques, the greatest radiation doses were received by the anterior part of the heart and the left anterior descending coronary artery, a common site of atherosclerosis causing myocardial infarction. Irradiation of these structures might have contributed to the excess risk of death from heart disease seen after some past breast cancer RT regimens.

  1. Computerized structural mechanics for 1990's: Advanced aircraft needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Viswanathan, A. V.; Backman, B. F.

    1989-01-01

    The needs for computerized structural mechanics (CSM) as seen from the standpoint of the aircraft industry are discussed. These needs are projected into the 1990's with special focus on the new advanced materials. Preliminary design/analysis, research, and detail design/analysis are identified as major areas. The role of local/global analyses in these different areas is discussed. The lessons learned in the past are used as a basis for the design of a CSM framework that could modify and consolidate existing technology and include future developments in a rational and useful way. A philosophy is stated, and a set of analyses needs driven by the emerging advanced composites is enumerated. The roles of NASA, the universities, and the industry are identified. Finally, a set of rational research targets is recommended based on both the new types of computers and the increased complexity the industry faces. Computerized structural mechanics should be more than new methods in structural mechanics and numerical analyses. It should be a set of engineering applications software products that combines innovations in structural mechanics, numerical analysis, data processing, search and display features, and recent hardware advances and is organized in a framework that directly supports the design process.

  2. Design issues for population growth models

    PubMed Central

    López Fidalgo, J.; Ortiz Rodríguez, I.M.

    2010-01-01

    We briefly review and discuss design issues for population growth and decline models. We then use a flexible growth and decline model as an illustrative example and apply optimal design theory to find optimal sampling times for estimating model parameters, specific parameters and interesting functions of the model parameters for the model with two real applications. Robustness properties of the optimal designs are investigated when nominal values or the model is mis-specified, and also under a different optimality criterion. To facilitate use of optimal design ideas in practice, we also introduce a website for generating a variety of optimal designs for popular models from different disciplines. PMID:21647244

  3. Impact of bankruptcy through asset portfolios. Network analytic solution unveils 1990s Japanese banking crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakamoto, Y.; Vodenska, I.

    2016-09-01

    We investigate the Japanese banking crisis in the late 1990s with a simple network based mathematical model, which allows us to simulate the crisis as well as to obtain new perspective through analytic solution of our network model. We effectively identify the actual bankrupted banks and the robustness of the banking system using a simulation model based on properties of a bi-partite bank-asset network. We show the mean time property and analytical solution of the model revealing aggregate time dynamics of bank asset prices throughout the banking crisis. The results disclose simple but fundamental property of asset growth, instrumental for understanding the bank crisis. We also estimate the selling pressure for each asset type, derived from a Cascading Failure Model (CFM), offering new perspective for investigating the phenomenon of banking crisis.

  4. Universal health insurance: lessons of the 1970s, prospects for the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Etheredge, L

    1990-01-01

    In the 1970s, proposals for universal health insurance were not successful. Health care providers, insurers, and others negotiating in the political process foresaw a better future without such legislation. Today, the growth of health insurance coverage has unmistakably reversed. Moral discomfort and self-interest shape the new politics of universal health insurance for the 1990s. Hospitals, physicians, insurers, employers, and tens of millions of individuals would benefit from a universal health insurance plan that was mindful of their concerns and interests. Proposals that require employers to provide insurance for full-time employees and expand public programs to cover to cover other uninsured persons now have the greatest chances for enactment. As leaders, health services and health insurance executives should be in the vanguard of efforts to enact universal health insurance.

  5. The Public Secondary School and Teacher in American Films of the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dowd, Arleen B.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined how public secondary schools and educators were portrayed in American films of the 1990s. Thirty films were selected for study that were produced and released in the decade of the 1990s. Content analysis and a "Film Analysis Form" produced answers to eight questions regarding the learning environments, portrayal of…

  6. World Population: Fundamentals of Growth. Student Chartbook. Third Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kent, Mary Mederios

    This booklet is designed for K-12 students and educators to learn about world population growth factors. Data are shown through charts and graphs with brief explanations. The booklet contains: (1) "World Population Growth and Regional Distribution through History"; (2) "Population Growth through Natural Increase"; (3) "Effect of Migration on…

  7. Estimation of population growth or decline in genetically monitored populations.

    PubMed Central

    Beaumont, Mark A

    2003-01-01

    This article introduces a new general method for genealogical inference that samples independent genealogical histories using importance sampling (IS) and then samples other parameters with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It is then possible to more easily utilize the advantages of importance sampling in a fully Bayesian framework. The method is applied to the problem of estimating recent changes in effective population size from temporally spaced gene frequency data. The method gives the posterior distribution of effective population size at the time of the oldest sample and at the time of the most recent sample, assuming a model of exponential growth or decline during the interval. The effect of changes in number of alleles, number of loci, and sample size on the accuracy of the method is described using test simulations, and it is concluded that these have an approximately equivalent effect. The method is used on three example data sets and problems in interpreting the posterior densities are highlighted and discussed. PMID:12871921

  8. Human population growth and the demographic transition.

    PubMed

    Bongaarts, John

    2009-10-27

    The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women's fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation.

  9. Fitness and density-dependent population growth in Drosophila melanogaster

    SciTech Connect

    Mueller, L.D.; Ayala, F.J.

    1981-03-01

    The density-dependent rates of population growth were determined for 26 populations of Drosophila melanogaster maintained in the serial transfer system. Twenty-five populations were homozygous for an entire chromosome 2 sampled from nature; the other was a random heterozygous population. Rates of population growth around the carrying capacity cannot explain the large fitness depression of these lines. However, the homozygous lines show large differences in rates of population growth at low densities relative to the random heterozygous standard. The average relative fitness of the homozygous lines, as determined from the growth rates at the lowest density, is 0.51.

  10. Population growth and education development in China.

    PubMed

    Wei, J

    1988-09-01

    Using data from the 1982 national census and the 1982 national 1 per 1000 fertility sampling survey, this paper examines population growth and educational development in China. From 1949-1979, an average of 22 million people were born each year. In 1985, the birth rate was 20.9 and the natural increase rate was 14.9 per 1000. In 1949, the average numbers of students per 10,000 in university, middle school, and primary school were 2.2, 23, and 450, respectively. In 1982, the numbers were 1.4, 465, and 1324, respectively. Rapid population growth impedes educational development either by reducing educational quality to maintain enrollment or by reducing the quantity to maintain educational quality. Among those over age 12, roughly 1/3 were illiterate. Nonetheless, China has made significant progress in education. The illiteracy rate among 12-14 year olds is below 10%, and more than 1/4 of women have a primary school education. Among women ages 25-34, about 3/5 had a primary school education. The illiteracy rate among rural women age 20-44 is 6 times that of their urban counterparts. Women with a primary school education have about 2 times the fertility level of women with a college education, while the general fertility rate for women with a middle school education is about 1/4 lower than those with a primary school education. The higher the educational level, the lower the number of children ever born. Contraceptive use rates among women with a primary school education are significantly higher than those of illiterate women. Without education and development, the family planning program and birth control cannot be successful in China.

  11. Population growth rate and its determinants: an overview.

    PubMed Central

    Sibly, Richard M; Hone, Jim

    2002-01-01

    We argue that population growth rate is the key unifying variable linking the various facets of population ecology. The importance of population growth rate lies partly in its central role in forecasting future population trends; indeed if the form of density dependence were constant and known, then the future population dynamics could to some degree be predicted. We argue that population growth rate is also central to our understanding of environmental stress: environmental stressors should be defined as factors which when first applied to a population reduce population growth rate. The joint action of such stressors determines an organism's ecological niche, which should be defined as the set of environmental conditions where population growth rate is greater than zero (where population growth rate = r = log(e)(N(t+1)/N(t))). While environmental stressors have negative effects on population growth rate, the same is true of population density, the case of negative linear effects corresponding to the well-known logistic equation. Following Sinclair, we recognize population regulation as occurring when population growth rate is negatively density dependent. Surprisingly, given its fundamental importance in population ecology, only 25 studies were discovered in the literature in which population growth rate has been plotted against population density. In 12 of these the effects of density were linear; in all but two of the remainder the relationship was concave viewed from above. Alternative approaches to establishing the determinants of population growth rate are reviewed, paying special attention to the demographic and mechanistic approaches. The effects of population density on population growth rate may act through their effects on food availability and associated effects on somatic growth, fecundity and survival, according to a 'numerical response', the evidence for which is briefly reviewed. Alternatively, there may be effects on population growth rate of

  12. Brazilian population 1982: growth, migration, race, religion.

    PubMed

    Sanders, T G

    1982-01-01

    The rate of population increase dropped to less than 2.5% annually in Brazil between 1970-80, but 26 million more people were born. The 1980 census also provides details of continuing urbanization, settlement of the farthest frontiers, and changes in racial composition. The direct cause of the drop in population increase was a drop of about 15% in the fertility rate that had been projected for the decade. Brazil's rate of population increase declined impressively despite the fact that the country continued to make progress in reducing mortality. The greatest improvement occurred between 1930-60. The mortality rate averaged 20.9/1000 between 1940-50 but dropped to 14.2/1000 between 1950-60. Even though the crude death rate dropped 28% in the 1970-80 decade and each child born in 1980 can expect to live 6.5 years longer than a child born in 1970, the life expectancy of 62 years compares with Colombia and El Salvador, which are much poorer countries. In Brazil as a whole the crude birthrate in the 15-19 age group was 66/1000 in 1980. It was 46/1000 in 1970, an increase of nearly 50%. In urban areas the rate increased from 37/1000 to 57/1000 and in the countryside from 59/1000 to 89/1000. The crude birthrate went down slightly in Brazil from 1970-80 from 34 to 32/1000. The total fertility rate (TFR) dropped in the same period from 4.9ll to 3.983. The question that arises is whether fertility rates will increase, with women in the youngest age group continuing to have more children during their reproductive years. Internal migration plays a major role in the distribution of the population. Between 1970-80 there were changes in the migration pattern from the previous decade. All the rapidly growing areas, defined as the frontier, have high fertility rates, but much of their growth results from migration. Between 1960-70 and 1970-80 the most rapidly growing areas of the frontier changed. Few are aware of the extent to which Brazil is becoming a country of large cities

  13. Competition and Competence: Employment Trends for the 1990's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norwood, Janet L.

    Foreign trade has become an increasingly important factor affecting employment in the United States, and competent workers must be educated to promote the U.S. position in the international economy. Concern is expressed about recent growth in the service industries, because it is believed that service industries have lower levels of productivity…

  14. Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norton, Arthur J.; Miller, Louisa F.

    This paper presents results of a survey of the marriage and fertility histories of women in the United States conducted in June 1990 by the Bureau of the Census as a supplement to the Current Population Survey. The marriage and fertility history surveys were taken in 1971, 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. This paper focuses on recent trends in…

  15. Older Adults: Community College Students of the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craig, Ford M.

    With a declining pool of youth to draw from, community colleges need to be concerned about what can be done to serve the needs of a burgeoning older adult population. Recent research on the educational needs of older adults reveals that they are interested in: (1) information on such personal business and financial topics as social security…

  16. Editorial: Trends in Mental Retardation in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rowitz, Louis

    1989-01-01

    Issues in mental retardation to be addressed in the next decade include homogenization of disabilities, aging of the population, increasing information and research needs, diagnosis, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, legal and ethical problems, caregiving, adolescent care, health care delivery, lifelong disabilities, vocational opportunities,…

  17. Older Adults: Community College Students of the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craig, Ford M.

    1990-01-01

    Provides a literature review on community college services to older adults, focusing on studies of this population's needs (e.g., personal business and financial information, employment needs, physical fitness training, and maintaining self-esteem and a sense of the purpose and meaning in life) and courses and services that colleges offer. (DMM)

  18. Redistricting in the 1990s: A Guide for Minority Groups.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Hare, William P., Ed.

    This guide provides basic information for members of minority groups who wish to participate effectively in the reapportionment that will take place as a result of the 1990 Census. The guide focuses on Blacks and Hispanics--the largest minority groups and the only ones for which there are reliable population figures that are more recent than the…

  19. Colonization, population growth, and nesting success of Black Oystercatchers following a seismic uplift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gill, V.A.; Hatch, Shyla A.; Lanctot, Richard B.

    2004-01-01

    We present data on the colonization of Middleton Island, Alaska, by Black Oystercatchers (Haematopus bachmani) following the creation of an extensive rocky intertidal zone after the Alaskan earthquake of 1964. The first pair of oystercatchers was detected in 1976, and it was another 5 years before the population increased to three pairs. Oystercatcher numbers increased steadily thereafter, with a population explosion occurring in the 1990s. By 2002, there were 171 territorial pairs on the island. The total number of birds increased from two in 1976 to 718 in 2002. Breeding-pair densities on Middleton Island are the highest recorded for any portion of Alaska, averaging more than 5 pairs per km of shoreline in 2002. Nesting success in 2001 and 2002 was greater (83% or more of the eggs laid hatched) than that reported for any other population of oystercatchers in Alaska or along the Pacific Coast. We attribute this exponential growth rate and exceptionally high reproductive success to the large area of available and suitable habitat, the low number of avian predators and the complete lack of mammalian predators, low rate of nest loss to high tides and storm surges, and a low level of human disturbance. We propose nominating Middleton Island as a regional Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network site because a high percentage of the world's and region's population of Black Oystercatchers resides there during the breeding season. Further, since Middleton Island may be the single most important site in Alaska for Black Oystercatchers, we suggest it be protected from future development.

  20. Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birdsall, Nancy

    1980-01-01

    The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…

  1. [The necessity of controlling population growth in Algeria].

    PubMed

    Sari, D

    1990-01-01

    The case is made for controlling Algeria's rapid rate of population growth. The author notes that at the present rate of growth the population is doubling every 20 years. The decline in the labor market and increases in unemployment and underemployment are also examined. The need for strong population policies and programs is stressed.

  2. Ultraviolet, visible, and gravity astrophysics: A plan for the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    NASA's Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) receives advice on scientific strategy and priorities from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Guidance to the OSSA Astrophysics Division, in particular, is provided by dedicated academy committees, ad hoc study groups, and, at ten-year intervals, by broadly mandated astronomy and astrophysics survey committees charged with making recommendations for the coming decade. Many of the academy's recommendations have important implications for the conduct of ultraviolet and visible-light astronomy from space. Moreover, these areas are now poised for an era of rapid growth. Through technological progress, ultraviolet astronomy has already risen from a novel observational technique four decades ago to the mainstream of astronomical research today. Recent developments in space technology and instrumentation have the potential to generate comparably dramatic strides in observational astronomy within the next ten years. In 1989, the Ultraviolet and Visible Astrophysics Branch of the OSSA Astrophysics Division recognized the need for a new, long-range plan that would implement the academy's recommendations in a way that yielded the most advantageous use of new technology. NASA's Ultraviolet, Visible, and Gravity Astrophysics Management Operations Working Group was asked to develop such a plan for the 1990's. Since the branch holds programmatic responsibility for space research in gravitational physics and relativity, as well as for ultraviolet and visible-light astrophysics, missions in those areas were also included. The working group met throughout 1989 and 1990 to survey current astrophysical problems, assess the potential of new technologies, examine prior academy recommendations, and develop the implementation plan. The present report is the product of those deliberations. Key astrophysical questions to be addressed cover topics such as the structure and evolution of the early universe, energetics of active

  3. Revisiting the effectiveness of methadone treatment on crime reductions in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Rothbard, A; Alterman, A; Rutherford, M; Liu, F; Zelinski, S; McKay, J

    1999-06-01

    This study examines the relationship between methadone treatment and the criminal activity of 126 individuals participating in treatment during the early 1990s. The primary question addressed is to what extent is methadone maintenance treatment associated with reductions in crime? Although prior studies in the 1970s and early 1980s showed significant decreases in crime for individuals in treatment programs, criteria for remaining in this treatment modality have changed in recent years, particularly with the advent of acquired immune deficiency syndrome and the need to reduce intravenous drug use. A pre-post study design is employed spanning a 6-year time period of subject recruitment and follow-up (1987-1993). Uniform administrative records on arrests are used for the analyses. A multiple regression model is employed to explain the variance in the number of arrests 2 years following program admission, with prior criminal history, prior and current drug treatment, and current cocaine use employed as explanatory variables. Results indicate that treatment retention has only a slight, though significant, effect on reducing criminal activity during treatment. Two other factors that appear to increase arrest activity are the use of cocaine and prior criminal history. The fact that arrests did not decrease during a treatment period of 18 months on average requires more investigation in light of the increase in cocaine use in this population.

  4. Gay and bisexual men's use of the Internet: research from the 1990s through 2013.

    PubMed

    Grov, Christian; Breslow, Aaron S; Newcomb, Michael E; Rosenberger, Joshua G; Bauermeister, Jose A

    2014-01-01

    We document the historical and cultural shifts in how gay and bisexual men have used the Internet for sexuality between the 1990s and 2013-including shifting technology as well as research methods to study gay and bisexual men online. Gay and bisexual men have rapidly taken to using the Internet for sexual purposes: for health information seeking, finding sex partners, dating, cybersex, and pornography. Men have adapted to the ever-evolving technological advances that have been made in connecting users to the Internet-from logging on via dial-up modem on a desktop computer to geo-social-sexual networking via handheld devices. In kind, researchers have adapted to the Internet to study gay and bisexual men. Studies have carefully considered the ethics, feasibility, and acceptability of using the Internet to conduct research and interventions. Much of this work has been grounded in models of disease prevention, largely as a result of the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic. The need to reduce HIV in this population has been a driving force to develop innovative research and Internet-based intervention methodologies. The Internet, and specifically mobile technology, is an environment gay and bisexual men are using for sexual purposes. These innovative technologies represent powerful resources for researchers to study and provide outreach.

  5. Interesting times on Krakatau: stand dynamics in the 1990s.

    PubMed Central

    Whittaker, R J; Partomihardjo, T; Jones, S H

    1999-01-01

    The Krakatau Islands, Indonesia, have provided an opportunity for ecologists to track primary succession from the 'clean slate' of 1883, through forest closure in the 1920s, to the contemporary period, in which successional changes take the form of alterations in composition and stature of forest stands rather than gross changes in ecosystem type. This paper reports on permanent forest plots established on the islands in 1989, and fully surveyed again in both 1992 and 1997. Since 1989, the plots have been subject to natural disturbance phenomena in the form of varying combinations of, for example, deposition of volcanic ejecta, landslides, lightning strikes, storm damage and drought. These effects have been concentrated between 1992 and 1997, during which the volcano Anak Krakatau has deposited ash on the islands of Sertung and Panjang, but not on Rakata. Data on stand responses are presented for growth rates (dbh (diameter at breast height, 1.3 m) increment), stem recruitment and mortality, biomass changes partitioned into mortality, ingrowth and growth of established trees), and compositional shifts. The discussion focuses on evaluation of questions and successional models framed earlier in the programme. One general finding is that the stand dominants as of 1989 have tended to decline in number within the plots, generally through low levels of recruitment failing to balance rates of mortality. The effects of disturbance to the plots appear to be evident in terms of mortality and recruitment, dbh increment, and changes in biomass. The patterns of change in the eight plots are quite varied, such that relatively few generalizations are possible. The difficulties of establishing meaningful baseline rates for tree growth and stand biomass are discussed. PMID:11605628

  6. Interesting times on Krakatau: stand dynamics in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Whittaker, R J; Partomihardjo, T; Jones, S H

    1999-11-29

    The Krakatau Islands, Indonesia, have provided an opportunity for ecologists to track primary succession from the 'clean slate' of 1883, through forest closure in the 1920s, to the contemporary period, in which successional changes take the form of alterations in composition and stature of forest stands rather than gross changes in ecosystem type. This paper reports on permanent forest plots established on the islands in 1989, and fully surveyed again in both 1992 and 1997. Since 1989, the plots have been subject to natural disturbance phenomena in the form of varying combinations of, for example, deposition of volcanic ejecta, landslides, lightning strikes, storm damage and drought. These effects have been concentrated between 1992 and 1997, during which the volcano Anak Krakatau has deposited ash on the islands of Sertung and Panjang, but not on Rakata. Data on stand responses are presented for growth rates (dbh (diameter at breast height, 1.3 m) increment), stem recruitment and mortality, biomass changes partitioned into mortality, ingrowth and growth of established trees), and compositional shifts. The discussion focuses on evaluation of questions and successional models framed earlier in the programme. One general finding is that the stand dominants as of 1989 have tended to decline in number within the plots, generally through low levels of recruitment failing to balance rates of mortality. The effects of disturbance to the plots appear to be evident in terms of mortality and recruitment, dbh increment, and changes in biomass. The patterns of change in the eight plots are quite varied, such that relatively few generalizations are possible. The difficulties of establishing meaningful baseline rates for tree growth and stand biomass are discussed.

  7. Nuclear weapons in the 1990s and beyond

    SciTech Connect

    Van Oudenaren, J.

    1992-12-31

    This chapter explores on a country-by-country and region-by-region basis the factors that will influence the debates concerning nuclear weapons in both the nuclear and nonnuclear states. The recent political changes in Europe and longer-term developments such as the continuing diffusion of economic and technological power throughout the world are calling into question basic assumptions about the compatibility of the existing nuclear order with other aspects of the international system. Together the United States and the former Soviet Union possess over 95 percent of the nuclear warheads in existence, but only about 10 percent of world population and 35 percent of gross national product. France and Britain have large and growing nuclear arsenals, while Japan and Germany, both of which have larger populations and economies and exposed geopolitically, are barred from access to nuclear weapons. In the third world there is lingering resentment at the perceived efforts by the great powers to deny nuclear weapons to rising regional influentials in the case of important countries such as India, Israel, and South Africa. More fundamentally, there is uncertainty about the very identity of at least three of the five declared nuclear powers. France and Britain are engaged in a long-term process that could lead to full political union in a larger European Community. Meanwhile, the former Soviet Union has moved in the opposite direction and at a far more rapid pace. The August 1991 coup and its aftermath severely weakened central control in Moscow, leading to declarations of independence by the union republic. Nuclear weapons almost certainly will play less of a role in structuring a bipolar American-Russian competition, but they could well play a more dangerous and destabilizing role in the third world, as well as Japan, Germany, and other countries previously thought of as middle powers that are now assuming greater global importance. 5 refs.

  8. Global child health: challenges and goals in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Reid, R S

    1994-01-01

    The UNICEF message to the pediatricians and child health experts attending the Regional Pediatric Congress of the Union of National Pediatric Societies of Turkish Republics is that the way children are conceptualized in the development process has a major impact on poverty. UNICEF argues that human resource development is the safest way out of population pressure, vanishing forests, and despoiled rivers. Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore are examples of countries that "sacrificed, deferred consumer gratification of the elites, and disciplined themselves" in order to provide better care for their children in terms of good nutrition, good health care, and rigorous primary and secondary education for all children. Family planning was available to all parents. The emphasis was on hygiene, immunization, clean water supplies, and sanitation. Lower infant and child mortality created confidence in child survival and parental willingness to have fewer children. The working population is healthier due to the state nutrition programs and a better skilled labor force due to education and training. These countries are no longer underdeveloped because of the priority on children for over a generation and a half. Robert Heilbroner has described this strategy for development as based on social development, human development, and protection of children aged under 5 years. The Alma Ata conference in 1976 was instrumental in focusing on the health of the child by setting a standard of health for all by the year 2000. Many countries are moving in the direction proposed in these agendas. The result has been a 33% reduction in child mortality within 10 years and greater immunization in some developing countries than in Europe and North America. Immunization rates in Ankara, Turkey; Calcutta, India; Lagos, Nigeria; and Mexico City are higher than in Washington, D.C. or New York City. The 1990 World Summit for Children found that the following rules are applicable to

  9. Population Growth and a Sustainable Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortimore, Michael; Tiffen, Mary

    1994-01-01

    Provides a history of farming practices in a densely populated area of Kenya where a recent study of the resource management practices showed positive, not negative, influences of increasing population density on both environmental conservation and productivity. (LZ)

  10. Detecting differential growth of microbial populations with Gaussian process regression

    PubMed Central

    Tonner, Peter D.; Darnell, Cynthia L.; Engelhardt, Barbara E.; Schmid, Amy K.

    2017-01-01

    Microbial growth curves are used to study differential effects of media, genetics, and stress on microbial population growth. Consequently, many modeling frameworks exist to capture microbial population growth measurements. However, current models are designed to quantify growth under conditions for which growth has a specific functional form. Extensions to these models are required to quantify the effects of perturbations, which often exhibit nonstandard growth curves. Rather than assume specific functional forms for experimental perturbations, we developed a general and robust model of microbial population growth curves using Gaussian process (GP) regression. GP regression modeling of high-resolution time-series growth data enables accurate quantification of population growth and allows explicit control of effects from other covariates such as genetic background. This framework substantially outperforms commonly used microbial population growth models, particularly when modeling growth data from environmentally stressed populations. We apply the GP growth model and develop statistical tests to quantify the differential effects of environmental perturbations on microbial growth across a large compendium of genotypes in archaea and yeast. This method accurately identifies known transcriptional regulators and implicates novel regulators of growth under standard and stress conditions in the model archaeal organism Halobacterium salinarum. For yeast, our method correctly identifies known phenotypes for a diversity of genetic backgrounds under cyclohexamide stress and also detects previously unidentified oxidative stress sensitivity across a subset of strains. Together, these results demonstrate that the GP models are interpretable, recapitulating biological knowledge of growth response while providing new insights into the relevant parameters affecting microbial population growth. PMID:27864351

  11. World Population: The Present and Future Crisis. Headline Series 251.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piotrow, Phyllis T.

    This booklet focuses on demographic change during the 1980s and 1990s, with special emphasis on the social and political pressures of accelerated demographic growth. It is intended for use in classrooms, community discussion groups, and seminars. Two world population trends are designated as most likely to dominate the demographic picture in the…

  12. Marriage, divorce, and remarriage in the 1990's.

    PubMed

    Norton, A J; Miller, L F

    1992-10-01

    Recent trends in marriage, divorce and redivorce, and remarriage were gleaned from cohort data from the US Supplement to the Current Population Survey, 1990, on the frequency of women entering and exiting a verity of marital statuses. Marriage patterns are described also in terms of their interrelationship with educational attainment, fertility history, age, race and Hispanic origin, age at marital event, and duration in marital status. the effects of marriage patterns on children are also considered. Future trends are anticipated along with their impact on families. The trend has been toward a significant number of adults and children living in one-parent families. This situation is also usually one of poverty and social deprivation. The time spent by children in one-parent families is estimated at almost 50%. There are 14 detailed tables to supplement the text. The appended tables and discussion provide background information on the accuracy of estimates. The increasing trend of divorce has meant that between the 1960s and 1980 the divorce rate doubled and reached the point where 1 out of 2 marriages was expected to end in divorce. During the 1980s, the rate remained the same, and first marriage and remarriage declined. Declines may be due to delay in marriage or to more people never marrying. Between 1975 and 1990, the percent of women ever married declined for all age groups; for women 20-24 years old the decline was from 63 to 38%. Marriage patterns were different for Blacks and Whites, but both experienced declines in first marriage. Black women will marry later than White women and will include a greater proportion who will never marry. Hispanic patterns were similar those of Whites. The slight drop in the percent divorcing after a first marriage between 1985 and 1990 showed less divorce for the younger age groups and more for the older age groups. 4 of 10 marriages involve a second or higher order marriage for 1 or both partners. The percent remarrying

  13. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  14. Population growth and development: the case of Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Nakibullah, A

    1998-04-01

    In a poor, overly populated country such as Bangladesh, some believe that a high rate of population growth is a cause of poverty which impedes economic development. Population growth would therefore be exogenous to economic development. However, others believe that rapid population growth is a consequence rather than a cause of poverty. Population growth is therefore endogenous to economic development. Findings are presented from an investigation of whether population growth has been exogenous or endogenous with respect to Bangladesh's development process during the past 3 decades. The increase in per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a measure of development. Data on population, real GDP per capita, and real investment share of GDP are drawn from the Penn World Table prepared by Summers and Heston in 1991. The data are annual and cover the period 1959-90. Analysis of the data indicate that population growth is endogenous to Bangladesh's development process. These findings are reflected both in the Granger causality tests and the decompositions of variances of detrended real GDP per capita and population growth.

  15. Educational Inequalities among Latin American Adolescents: Continuities and Changes over the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s

    PubMed Central

    Marteleto, Letícia; Gelber, Denisse; Hubert, Celia; Salinas, Viviana

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to examine recent trends in educational stratification for Latin American adolescents growing up in three distinct periods: the 1980s, during severe recession; the 1990s, a period of structural adjustments imposed by international organizations; and the late 2000s, when most countries in the region experienced positive and stable growth. In addition to school enrollment and educational transitions, we examine the quality of education through enrollment in private schools, an important aspect of inequality in education that most studies have neglected. We use nationally representative household survey data for the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s in Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay. Our overall findings confirm the importance of macroeconomic conditions for inequalities in educational opportunity, suggesting important benefits brought up by the favorable conditions of the 2000s. However, our findings also call attention to increasing disadvantages associated with the quality of the education adolescents receive, suggesting the significance of the EMI framework—Effectively Maintained Inequality—and highlighting the value of examining the quality in addition to the quantity of education in order to fully understand educational stratification in the Latin American context. PMID:22962512

  16. [Population: evolution of Rwandan attitudes or the adaptation of the Rwanda population to population growth].

    PubMed

    Ngendakumana, M

    1988-04-01

    A consequence of the increasing pressure on Rwanda's ecosystem resulting from population growth has been that demographic factors have played a significant role in modifying attitudes and beliefs of the population. The history of Rwanda demonstrates a constant struggle for survival in the face of increasing population pressure. Migration, colonization of new agricultural lands, adoption of new crops and new forms of animal husbandry have been responses to population pressures. Recent unprecedented population growth has exceeded the capacity of older systems of cultivation and combinations of agricultural and animal husbandry to support the population. Smaller animals have largely replaced the cattle that once roamed freely in extensive pastures, and new techniques of stabling animals, use of organic or chemical fertilizers, and new tools adapted to the shrinking size of farm plots have represented responses to the new demographic realities. The concept of the family is likewise undergoing modification in the face of population growth and modernization. Children, who once were valued as a source of labor and constrained to conform to the wishes of the parents in return for the eventual inheritance of the goods and livelihood, now increasingly look beyond the household for education and employment. Family land holdings have become too small to support all the members with a claim on them. The greater distances between family members inevitably mean that relations between them lose closeness. The choice of a marriage partner is increasingly assumed by the young people themselves and not by their families. Old traditions of food sharing and hospitality have been curtailed because of the increasing scarcity of food. Despite the changes engendered by increasing population pressure, pronatalist sentiments are still widespread. But the desire to assure the future of each child rather than to await his services, a new conception of women less dependent on their reproductive

  17. Accountable care organizations may have difficulty avoiding the failures of integrated delivery networks of the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Burns, Lawton R; Pauly, Mark V

    2012-11-01

    Accountable care organizations are intended to improve the quality and lower the cost of health care through several mechanisms, such as disease management programs, care coordination, and aligning financial incentives for hospitals and physicians. Providers employed several of these mechanisms in forming the integrated delivery networks of the 1990s. The networks failed, however, because of heavy financial losses stemming from hospitals' purchase of physician practices and their inability to align incentives, garner capitated contracts, and develop the infrastructure to manage risk. Although the current mechanisms underlying accountable care organizations continue to evolve, whether and how they will have an impact on quality and costs remains open to question. Care coordination and information technology are proving more complicated and expensive to implement than anticipated, providers may lack the ability to implement these mechanisms, and primary care providers are in short supply. As in the 1990s, success depends on targeting specific populations, such as people with multiple chronic conditions who need and may benefit from coordinated care.

  18. Winter temperatures limit population growth rate of a migratory songbird

    PubMed Central

    Woodworth, Bradley K.; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T.; Newman, Amy E.; Schaub, Michael; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the factors that limit and regulate wildlife populations requires insight into demographic and environmental processes acting throughout the annual cycle. Here, we combine multi-year tracking data of individual birds with a 26-year demographic study of a migratory songbird to evaluate the relative effects of density and weather at the breeding and wintering grounds on population growth rate. Our results reveal clear support for opposing forces of winter temperature and breeding density driving population dynamics. Above-average temperatures at the wintering grounds lead to higher population growth, primarily through their strong positive effects on survival. However, population growth is regulated over the long term by strong negative effects of breeding density on both fecundity and adult male survival. Such knowledge of how year-round factors influence population growth, and the demographic mechanisms through which they act, will vastly improve our ability to predict species responses to environmental change and develop effective conservation strategies for migratory animals. PMID:28317843

  19. Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa.

    PubMed

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2012-05-01

    The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

  20. Ecology and habitat of breeding Northern Goshawks in the inland Pacific Northwest: A summary of research in the 1990s

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeStefano, S.; McGrath, M.T.; Daw, S.K.; Desimone, S.M.

    2006-01-01

    During the 1990s, we conducted research on the distribution, productivity, and habitat relationships of Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) in eastern Oregon and Washington. Our research was initiated primarily in response to concerns raised about the status of Northern Goshawks in the western US, and coincided with early attempts to list the species as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act and the publication of management guidelines for goshawks in the southwestern US. To develop baseline information on the status, distribution, and habitat relationships of goshawks in eastside forests (i.e., east of the Cascade Mountain Range) in the Pacific Northwest, we established study areas on three national forests in eastern Oregon in 1992, adding a fourth study area in central Washington in 1994. We focused on the breeding season and nesting habitat because of its primary importance to goshawk ecology and the logistical feasibility of finding nests. Density of breeding pairs ranged from 0.03-0.09/100 ha, and annual productivity ranged from 0.3-2.2 young fledged/nest. Goshawks selected forest stands with trees of larger diameter and greater canopy closure for nesting than available in the landscape. Occasionally nests could be found in large trees in open-canopied stands. As distance increased from the nest site, forest type and structure became more heterogeneous and the prevalence of older-seral-stage forest declined. Dry or wet openings were present in most territories, often within close proximity to nest stands. Goshawks ate a variety of mammalian and avian prey. Mammal species made up a larger portion of prey biomass on two of the national forests, but avian species appeared to be more prevalent in the diet of goshawks in the most northern study area. We recommend that the existing management guidelines for goshawks in the Southwest form a basis for management in the inland Pacific Northwest, particularly with regard to nested spatial concepts

  1. The population growth and desertification crisis.

    PubMed

    Milas, S

    1985-01-01

    Desertification is a result of overexploitation of the land through overcultivation, overgrazing, deforestation, and poor irrigation practices. This process is a result of the growing imbalance between population, resources, environment, and development. The principle problem causing desertification is not population increase per se; rather, it is due to mismanagement of the land. However, rapidly increasing population densities in the drylands of Africa, Asia, and Latin America have upset the former balance upon which subsistence agriculture depended, including long fallow periods to allow the land to regain its fertility. Arable land for the world as a whole is projected to decrease from its 1975 level of .31 ha/person to .15 ha/person by the year 2000. Population increases in the remaining croplands are expected to produce further encroachment on rangelands and forests and increased ecologic degradation, in turn producing further population pressure, poverty, land degradation, and desertification. The basic need is for better resource utilization. Halting desertification requires the restoration of the balance between man and land. Development, good resource management, and use of appropriate technologic advances are key factors. There is also a crucial need for each country to relate its population policy to its resource base and development plans. Population increase cannot continue indefinitely without regard for the realities of resources, development, and the environment.

  2. Gay and Bisexual men's use of the Internet: Research from the 1990s through 2013

    PubMed Central

    Grov, Christian; Breslow, Aaron S.; Newcomb, Michael E.; Rosenberger, Joshua G.; Bauermeister, Jose A

    2014-01-01

    In this review, we document the historical and cultural shifts in how gay and bisexual men have used the Internet for sexuality between the 1990s and 2013. Over that time, gay and bisexual men have rapidly taken to using the Internet for sexual purposes: sexual health information seeking, finding sex partners, dating, cybersex, and pornography. Gay and bisexual men have adapted to the ever-evolving technological advances that have been made in connecting users to the Internet—from logging into the World Wide Web via dial-up modem on a desktop computer to geo-social and sexual networking via a handheld device. In kind, researchers too have adapted to the Internet to study gay and bisexual men, though not at the same rapid pace at which technology (and its users) have advanced. Studies have carefully considered the ethics, feasibility, and acceptability of using the Internet to conduct research and interventions with gay and bisexual men. Much of this work has been grounded in models of disease prevention, largely as a result of the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic. The urgent need to reduce HIV in this population has been a driving force to develop innovative research and Internet-based intervention methodologies. Moving forward, a more holistic understanding of gay and bisexual men's sexual behavior might be warranted to address continued HIV and STI disparities. The Internet, and specifically mobile technology, is an environment gay and bisexual men are using for sexual purposes. These innovative technologies represent powerful resources for researchers to study and provide rapidly evolving outreach to gay and bisexual men. PMID:24754360

  3. Changes in the Quality of Care for Bipolar I Disorder During the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Busch, Alisa B.; Ling, Davina; Frank, Richard G.; Greenfield, Shelly F.

    2007-01-01

    Objective This study estimated changes during the 1990s in the quality of usual-care treatment among persons diagnosed as having bipolar I disorder in a privately insured population. Methods Retrospective private insurance administrative data were analyzed for enrollees aged 18 to 64 who were diagnosed as having bipolar I disorder during 1991 (431 person-years), 1994 (598 person-years), and 1999 (600 person-years). Medication and psychotherapy quality indicators were derived from bipolar disorder expert guidelines published in 1994, which were consistent with guidelines published until year 2002. Results The unadjusted prevalence of receiving any lithium, valproate, or carbamazepine improved over the study period (68 percent in 1991, 64 percent in 1994, and 77 percent in 1999), whereas, compared with 1991, receiving any antidepressant in the absence of lithium, valproate, or carbamazepine increased in 1994 and then declined in 1999 (13 percent in 1991, 23 percent in 1994, and 14 percent in 1999). The unadjusted prevalence of receiving any psychotherapy declined steadily and sharply (94 percent in 1991, 89 percent in 1994, and 69 percent in 1999). The unadjusted prevalence of receiving any lithium, valproate, or carbamazepine and therapy together declined over time (65 percent in 1991, 58 percent in 1994, and 54 percent in 1999). After the analyses adjusted for patient characteristics, these changes were significant from p<.01 to p<.001. Conclusions The prevalence of receiving the pharmacotherapy recommended in the guidelines improved after guideline publication in 1994, whereas other quality measures that included receiving psychotherapy declined throughout the study period. These results suggest different psychotherapeutic modalities are under differing constraints under managed care, constraints that overpower consensus in the literature of quality practice. Policy makers should measure a variety of key therapeutic modalities when measuring quality in order to

  4. [Five recommendations for controlling population growth in China].

    PubMed

    Lui, Z; Wu, C P; Lin, F D

    1980-10-01

    The rapid population growth rate (2% annually from 1949 to 1978) caused great difficulties for China's national economy because it increased the burden of families, communities, and government. It caused employment problems and slowed increases in living standards and educational levels. The best way to control population growth is based on a combination of political education and effective economic measures. The recommendations are: 1) coordinate employment, food rationing, salaries, bonuses, health treatment, age and condition of retirement, preschool care and education with family planning programs, maintain the elderly's living standard, and give preference to childless and single child families; 2) educate people about family planning and incorporate population growth and family planning into political and economics courses in high school and college; 3) incorporate population control into national economic plans; 4) prohibit families with 3 children and advocate 1 child per couple; and 5) establish a permanent population committee to plan, develop, and implement population policies and related research.

  5. World Agriculture: Review and Prospects into the 1990s. A Summary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winrock International Livestock Research & Training Center. Morrilton, AR.

    The four chapters of this analysis of world agriculture deal with production, consumption, and world trade. World food production and consumption continued to grow rapidly in the 1970's, but at a rate somewhat slower than in the 1960's. It is projected that for the 1990's consumption will increase faster than production in most of the world's…

  6. Glass Ceiling in Academic Administration in Turkey: 1990s versus 2000s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gunluk-Senesen, Gulay

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses the glass ceiling for academics in the Turkish universities with reference to top administration positions: rectors and deans. Glass ceiling indicators show that the glass ceiling thickened from the 1990s to late 2000s. The findings are discussed against the background of the transformation in the Turkish universities in the…

  7. Two-Year College Mathematics Education for the 1990s: A Commitment to Quality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Don, Ed.

    1989-01-01

    The main purpose of this special issue is to suggest strategies for meeting the mathematical needs of two-year college students in the decade of the 1990s. Since the 20 contributors were free to write about topics that they considered to be appropriate to the intellectual and personal development of all students their papers represent a broad…

  8. Blueprints for Indian Education: Research and Development Needs for the 1990s. ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cahape, Patricia

    Two landmark efforts to describe the condition of American Indian and Alaska Native education nationwide and to call for specific solutions took place in the early 1990s. These efforts were the Indian Nations At Risk Task Force and the White House Conference on Indian Education. This digest summarizes Task Force and Conference recommendations…

  9. Focus on the 1990's: International Trade Opportunities for the Permian Basin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Midland Coll., TX. Business and Economic Development Center.

    Designed to highlight business opportunities of the 1990s as well as available educational programs relating to international business, this report contains six presentations from a 1990 conference on international trade hosted by Midland College (MC). The first article, "Texas in the Global Economy: Attitude and Opportunity," by John A.…

  10. Grade Inflation Marches On: Grade Increases from the 1990s to 2000s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kostal, Jack W.; Kuncel, Nathan R.; Sackett, Paul R.

    2016-01-01

    Grade inflation threatens the integrity of college grades as indicators of academic achievement. In this study, we contribute to the literature on grade inflation by providing the first estimate of the size of grade increases at the student level between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s. By controlling for student characteristics and course-taking…

  11. El Nino During the 1990's: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2000-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.

  12. El Nino During the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2000-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.

  13. Putting Children First: A Progressive Family Policy for the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kamarck, Elaine Ciulla; Galston, William A.

    Four policy papers delineate a progressive family policy for the 1990s that makes the family central among social issues and children central in families. An extensive introduction delineates the split between leaders' and ordinary citizens' views on the family and provides a summary of the papers. The first paper offers an economic review of the…

  14. Feature Articles on African Americans in Sports Illustrated in the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angela Lumpkin

    2009-01-01

    This descriptive study examined whether the coverage of African Americans in the feature articles in Sports Illustrated during the 1990s was representative of their participation levels. Nearly half of the articles featured European Americans; about one-third featured African Americans. More African Americans were featured in basketball, boxing,…

  15. Food for Thought: Children's Diets in the 1990s. Policy Brief.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gleason, Philip; Suitor, Carol

    Since the late 1980s, identifying nutritional problems in children's and adults' diets and developing initiatives to help Americans improve what they eat have received considerable attention. This policy brief summarizes 2 studies of children's nutrition with the objectives of describing the diets of school-age children as of the mid-1990s,…

  16. The Perpetuation of Subtle Prejudice: Race and Gender Imagery in 1990s Television Advertising.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coltrane, Scott; Messineo, Melinda

    2000-01-01

    Analyzed television commercials aired on programs with high ratings for specific target audiences from 1992-94 to investigate how advertising imagery simultaneously constructed racial and gender stereotypes. Results indicated that 1990s television commercials portrayed white men as powerful, white women as sex objects, African American men as…

  17. Issues and Concerns for Local Government: Virginia in the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crockett, Mark

    Many challenges face local governments in Virginia and nationwide in the 1990s. As federal funding has decreased, local governments have been forced to take on greater responsibilities. This increased workload has created a greater demand for resources and forced many localities to raise taxes. Citizens have often voiced opposition to these tax…

  18. Take a Field Trip through the 1990's. Celebrate the Century Education Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Postal Service, Washington, DC.

    Using the "Celebrate the Century" stamp series, this U.S. Postal Service series commemorates the 20th-century and teaches students about the people, places, and events that have shaped this nation during the past 100 years. Each kit is designed to be taught as a complete and independent unit. This kit, which focuses on the 1990s,…

  19. El Nino during the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1999-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990s has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein, however, appear to mitigate this belief. For example, regarding the frequency and severity of El Nino, the decade of the 1990s is found to compare quite favorably with that of preceding decades. Hence, the 1990s probably should not be regarded as being anomalous. On the other hand, the number of El Nino-related months per decade has sharply increased during the 1990s, as compared to the preceding four decades, hinting of a marginally significant upward trend. Perhaps, this is an indication that the Earth is now experiencing an ongoing global climatic change. Continued vigilance during the new millennium, therefore, is of paramount importance for determining whether or not this "hint" of a global change is real or if it merely reflects a normal fluctuation of climate.

  20. Parents and Schooling in the 1990s. Parent Involvement at the Middle School Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    ERIC Review, 1991

    1991-01-01

    The "ERIC Review" announces research results, publications, and new programs relevant to each issue's theme topic. This theme issue is devoted to the topic of "Parent Involvement in Education" and contains three principal articles: "Parents and Schooling in the 1990s," by Erwin Flaxman and Morton Inger; "Parent…

  1. Instructional Leaders for the 1990s: Improving the Analysis of Teaching.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Acheson, Keith A.

    1990-01-01

    Arguing that instructional leadership changes are inevitable during the 1990s, this Bulletin explores instructional leaders' roles and functions, along with some leadership styles, strategies, and skills, and proposes an administrator training program. Chapter 1 introduces six "organizers" for examining instructional leadership: setting,…

  2. The Role of Communication Satellites in Education and Training: The 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Polcyn, Kenneth A.

    1981-01-01

    Presents an overview of satellite technology and trends in its use, reviews the evolution of education and training applications of communication satellites, and prognosticates about the possible national and international uses during the 1990s. A bibliography of 26 items is included. (CHC)

  3. Factors affecting Yukon teen pregnancy decline in the mid and late 1990s.

    PubMed

    Wackett, Jeff

    2002-11-01

    Teen pregnancy has declined throughout North America in the 1990s. In Yukon Territory, Canada, teen pregnancy in the late 1990s was almost 40% lower than in the early 1990s. This rate of decline is significantly greater than most recently reported national rates of teen pregnancy decline in Canada and United States. Identifying possible causes of the Yukon decline may help policy makers and program managers plan and implement teen pregnancy prevention strategies. Data on Yukon teen pregnancy prevention initiatives were collected through numerous discussions and interviews with Yukon service providers, teens, and the general public between 1994 and 2001. Analysis of data demonstrates that multiple new initiatives spanning many sectors were implemented in the mid and late 1990s that could have contributed to the decline in Yukon teen pregnancy. A multi-dimensional approach to teen pregnancy prevention that included researching and evaluating family planning programs and policies before, during, and after implementation, increasing access to longer-acting hormonal contraceptives, providing continuing family planning medical education to health care providers and other youth service providers, subsidization of contraceptives, delivery of innovative family planning mass media campaigns, and delivery of ongoing sexual health education programs may have significantly contributed to the decline in Yukon teen pregnancy. Collaboration among service providers across many service sectors (clinical, public health, education, First Nations, government communication and policy, grassroots) facilitated coordination of the multi-dimensional approach.

  4. Mexican American Women's Activism at Indiana University in the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Ebelia

    2013-01-01

    This article offers a historical analysis of documents and narratives from Mexican American women that reflect the tumultuous 1990s at Indiana University. Their recollections reveal how they became activists, the racist incidents that compelled them into activism, and the racial tensions and backlash towards identity politics felt by students of…

  5. Migration of Retirement-Age Blacks to Nonmetropolitan Areas in the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beale, Calvin L.; Fuguitt, Glenn V.

    2011-01-01

    Older blacks migrated to nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) communities in the 1990s to a degree not true of the past. Some of the nonmetro counties that attracted them are well-known retirement areas also favored by other retirees, mostly whites. Two-thirds of black retirement counties, however, are areas in the Old South that are not attracting other…

  6. Food Production, Population Growth, and Environmental Quality. Caltech Population Program Occasional Papers, Series 1, Number 7.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groth, Edward, III

    This paper, one in a series of occasional publications, discusses trends in food production and population growth, emphasizing how environmental quality will be affected. The series is intended to increase understanding of the interrelationships between population growth and socioeconomic and cultural patterns throughout the world, and to…

  7. Population Projections and Growth: Proposals or Porphecies?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Chris

    1974-01-01

    Presents a review charging the Canadian governments with reacting to population projections as if they were public prophecy. Projections throughout 1930-40 are summarized and tabulated as well as those in the years 1950-60 and recent years. (EB)

  8. The “Cuban Epidemic Neuropathy” of the 1990s: A glimpse from inside a totalitarian disease

    PubMed Central

    Coutin-Churchman, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    During the 1990s, Cuba was struck by a rare epidemic disease. Up to 50,000 people were affected by a pathology compromising primarily the optic nerve but also peripheral nerves and even spinal cord. This is a testimony from a direct witness and participant in the initial study of the epidemics showing that in spite of claims of a “multifactorial” etiology, still in the literature, the root cause of this disease is just result of the deliberate deprivation of the most elementary economic rights by extreme Government control over a population left unable to tend to its elementary survival by itself, in spite of a thorough Government-sponsored, universally celebrated Universal Healthcare System. PMID:25024884

  9. [The fear of numbers or the challenge of population growth?].

    PubMed

    Loriaux, M

    1991-12-01

    Africa, currently one of the least densely populated continents, is growing so rapidly that its population will comprise some 1.5 billion inhabitants around 2020, and Africans will be more numerous than the population of the developed world. Attitudes about Africa's population size vary widely; many educated Africans believe that low density is a greater disadvantage than overpopulation, but most specialists believe the population of the developing world, and of Africa especially, to be too large, the prospects of significant voluntary reduction are dim. The rate of population growth has thus attracted attention as a factor amenable to modification. Africa's demographic transition remains largely in the future. Its case is unique because of the rate of demographic growth and because the phase of rapid growth will apparently continue far longer in Africa than in any other continent. The widening gap between population growth rates and rates of economic development in Africa inspires great pessimism about the future wellbeing of the population. Population officials urge that demographic growth be slowed in order to reduce pressure on economic and ecological resources and to gain time for social and economic development. But despite the consensus of international organizations, such as the UN Fund for Population, on the desirability of slowing population growth to encourage and permit economic growth, there has actually been relatively little progress since the time of Malthus in understanding the relationship between population, development, and the environment. Some recent works suggest that demographic growth has benefits as well as disadvantages, and the net impact on development is uncertain. Demographic pressure is in this view a far more potent force for innovation than is usually recognized. Population is not just an exogenous variable in development, but it is at the heart of the process. There can be no true integration of population into development until

  10. Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

  11. Skin lesions on North Atlantic right whales: categories, prevalence and change in occurrence in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Philip K; Marx, Marilyn K

    2005-12-30

    North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis experienced decreased reproduction and body condition in the 1990s, causing concern about the overall health of this critically endangered population. Images from a detailed photo-identification catalog of right whales were analyzed for the presence of skin lesions. Lesions were categorized as white lesions or blister lesions and each of those categories were further divided based on lesion morphology and location. Of 439 whales photo-analyzed between 1980 and 2002, white lesions were detected on 227 ind. (51.7%) and blister lesions were found on 76 ind. (17.3%). The majority of white lesions (72.8%) were detected in the Bay of Fundy where their prevalence increased dramatically during the 1990s (peaking at 40 and 41% of all identified whales in 1997 and 1999, respectively). A correlation between whale density and white lesions in the Bay of Fundy suggested that this lesion type may have been the result of a contagious agent, though the data on mother/calf pairs did not indicate transmission from mother to calf. Blister lesions appeared at low levels throughout the population over the study period. Neither lesion category was more prevalent on males or females, nor were there any differences between adults and juveniles. One white lesion type appeared exclusively on whales that had been entangled, and whose subsequent survival was in most cases questionable. This is the first detailed analysis of skin lesions in this species. Only 1 tissue sample has been previously obtained from a lesion, and thus the histology and etiology of these lesions remain unknown. Further work is needed to explore the role of disease and environmental variables in lesion prevalence.

  12. New directions in family planning communication: 12 predictions for the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Piotrow, P T; Rimon, J G

    1988-12-01

    Good communication about family planning is needed for many reasons: 1) what many people think they know about family planning is wrong, 2) about 25% of the Asian population (600 million people) are between the ages of 10 and 19 and they need to be informed, 3) individuals must want to use family planning so they will use it regularly and effectively, and 4) people hear competing messages from those opposed to family planning. The authors make the following predictions for the field of family planning IEC in the 1990s: 1) family planning communication will have many different audiences, so messages and media will have to be developed for very specific groups; 2) more time will be spent on research, learning about specific audiences, the media, and background before developing messages, and messages and products will be carefully tested before being widely distributed; 3) peer groups will be used more to reach peer groups; 4) entertainment will reach and teach wider audiences about family planning, AIDS, and sexual responsibility (promoting "enter-education," a combination of entertainment and education); 5) audiences will participate more actively in different kinds of family planning communication, including community mobilization and individual involvement; 6) family planning messages will be much more personal, using human interest stories to capture and persuade the audience; 7) multiple media will be used more and more to get the message across; 8) the best quality family planning entertainment materials will be able to compete with commercial products and produce revenue; 9) campaigns and other communications will be oriented towards large regional markets; 10) more creative and more sympathetic communication in clinics and by health care providers will increase acceptance and continuation rates for many methods; 11) communication among family planning professionals will increasingly depend on effective national population information centers that can use

  13. Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record.

    PubMed

    Zahid, H Jabran; Robinson, Erick; Kelly, Robert L

    2016-01-26

    The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide.

  14. Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record

    PubMed Central

    Zahid, H. Jabran; Robinson, Erick; Kelly, Robert L.

    2016-01-01

    The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide. PMID:26699457

  15. Effects of population growth on the success of invading mutants.

    PubMed

    Ashcroft, Peter; Smith, Cassandra E R; Garrod, Matthew; Galla, Tobias

    2017-03-18

    Understanding if and how mutants reach fixation in populations is an important question in evolutionary biology. We study the impact of population growth has on the success of mutants. To systematically understand the effects of growth we decouple competition from reproduction; competition follows a birth-death process and is governed by an evolutionary game, while growth is determined by an externally controlled branching rate. In stochastic simulations we find non-monotonic behaviour of the fixation probability of mutants as the speed of growth is varied; the right amount of growth can lead to a higher success rate. These results are observed in both coordination and coexistence game scenarios, and we find that the 'one-third law' for coordination games can break down in the presence of growth. We also propose a simplified description in terms of stochastic differential equations to approximate the individual-based model.

  16. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  17. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  18. The New Population Debate: Two Views on Population Growth and Economic Development. Population Trends and Public Policy, Number 7.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Timothy; Kelley, Allen C.

    Articles representing two views on the issue of rapid population growth and economic development are presented. Although the authors present different perspectives, they agree on many of the fundamentals. For example, both reject alarmism about impending "population explosions" and the use of population as a scapegoat for all Third World…

  19. The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth.

    PubMed

    Bental, B

    1989-03-01

    The application of the Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework to the old age security hypothesis indicates that government intervention schemes can influence the relationship between population growth and capital accumulation. The most direct means of optimizing population growth is through taxes or subsidies that relate to the intergenerational transfer of wealth. A pay-as-you-go social security scheme, in which payment is predicated on the number of children the receiver has and is financed by taxes levied on the working population, emerges as the most likely intervention to produce the optimal steady state equilibrium. This system is able to correct any distortions the private sector may build into it. In contrast, a child support system, in which the government subsidizes or taxes workers according to their family size, can guarantee the optimal capital:labor ratio but not the optimal population growth rate. Thus, if the government seeks to decrease the population growth rate, the appropriate intervention is to levy a lump-sum social-security tax on workers and transfer the revenues to the old; the direction should be reversed if the goal is to increase population growth. Another alternative, a lump sum social security system, can guarantee optimal population growth but not a desirable capital:labor ratio. Finally, the introduction of money as a valued commodity into an economy with a high capital:labor ratio will also serve to decrease the population growth rate and solve the intergenerational transfer problem through the private sector without any need for government intervention.

  20. Population growth and economic development revisited with reference to Asia.

    PubMed

    Jha, S C; Deolalikar, A B; Pernia, E M

    1993-01-01

    "This article takes another look at the old issue of population growth and economic development in the context of recent developments and with the benefit of the increasing stock of knowledge on the subject. It first presents a demographic perspective; then it analyzes the implications of population growth with respect to such integral aspects of economic development as human capital accumulation, income distribution and poverty, the environment, and sustainable economic growth. The approach in each case is to review the theoretical considerations, survey the empirical evidence, and then draw policy implications. An overall conclusion with implications for policy caps the paper." The geographical focus is on Asia.

  1. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    PubMed

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  2. Population growth. Its magnitude and implications for development.

    PubMed

    Birdsall, N

    1984-09-01

    A summary of the 1984 World Development Report is provided. The 3 major points stressed in the report were: 1) rapid population growth adversely affects development, 2) governments must adopt policies to reduce fertility, and 3) policies adopted by many countries have effectively reduced fertility. World population growth began accelerating at 0.5%/year in the 18th century, and by 1950 the annual acceleration rate was 2%. Most of the increase in population size is occurring in less developed countries, and this increase is due in part to the recent decline in mortality experienced by these countries. Of the 80 million individuals who will be added to the world's population in 1984, 70 million will be in the developing countries. Since 1965 the population growth rate for developing countries as a group declined from 2.4% to 2%. However, because of the high proportion of younger aged individuals in developing countries, the decline in fertility is expected to level off. According to World Bank population projections, the world population will stabilize at around 11 billion in 2150. During the interium, the population of developing countries will increase from its present level of 3.6 billion to 8.4 billion, and the population of developed countries will increase from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion. These projections are probably overly optimistic. The adverse impact on development of rapid population growth is due to several factors. 1st, resources which could be used for investment must instead be used to fulfill the consumption needs of an increased number of people. 2nd, increases in the labor force must be absorbed by the agricultural sector, and this reduces agricultural productivity. 3rd, rapid population growth increases management problems. The adaption of policies by governments to reduce fertility is a necessary step in halting population growth. For poor families, children provide economic security. Therefore, governments must act to improve the economic

  3. Outcomes of children of extremely low birthweight and gestational age in the 1990's.

    PubMed

    Hack, M; Fanaroff, A A

    1999-01-01

    Advances in perinatal care have improved the chances for survival of extremely low birthweight (< 800 g) and gestational age (< 26 weeks) infants. A review of the world literature and our own experience reveals that at 23 weeks gestation survival ranges from 2% to 35%. At 24 weeks gestation the range is 17% to 58%, and at 25 weeks gestation 35% to 85%. Differences in population descriptors, in the initiation and withdrawal of treatment and the duration of survival considered may account for the wide variations in the reported ranges of survival. Major neonatal morbidity increases with decreasing gestational age and birthweight. The rates of severe cerebral ultrasound abnormality range at 23 weeks gestation from 10% to 83%, at 24 weeks from 17% to 64% and at 25 weeks gestation from 10% to 22%. At 23 weeks gestation, chronic lung disease occurs in 57% to 70% of survivors, at 24 weeks in 33% to 89%, and at 25 weeks gestation in 16% to 71% of survivors. When compared to children born prior to the 1990's, the rates of neurodevelopmental disability have, in general, remained unchanged. Of 30 survivors reported at 23 weeks gestation nine (30%) are severely disabled. At 24 weeks gestation the rates of severe neurodevelopmental disability (including subnormal cognitive function, cerebral palsy, blindness and deafness) range from 17% to 45%, and at 25 weeks gestation 12% to 35% are similarly affected. In Cleveland, Ohio, we compared the outcomes of 114 children with birthweight 500-749 g born 1990-1992 to 112 infants born 1993-1995. Twenty month survival was similar (43% vs 38%). The use of antenatal and postnatal steroids increased (10% vs 54% and 43% vs 84%, respectively, P< 0.001), however the rates of chronic lung disease increased from 41% to 63% (P = 0.06). There was a significant increase in the rate of subnormal cognitive function at 20 months corrected age (20% vs 48%, P < 0.02) and a trend to an increase in the rate of cerebral palsy (10% vs 16%) and

  4. Getting a piece of the pie? The economic boom of the 1990s and declining teen birth rates in the United States.

    PubMed

    Colen, Cynthia G; Geronimus, Arline T; Phipps, Maureen G

    2006-09-01

    In the United States, the 1990s was a decade of dramatic economic growth as well as a period characterized by substantial declines in teenage childbearing. This study examines whether falling teen fertility rates during the 1990s were responsive to expanding employment opportunities and whether the implementation of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunities Act (PRWORA), increasing rates of incarceration, or restrictive abortion policies may have affected this association. Fixed-effects Poisson regression models were estimated to assess the relationship between age-specific birth rates and state-specific unemployment rates from 1990 to 1999 for Black and White females aged 10-29. Falling unemployment rates in the 1990s were associated with decreased childbearing among African-American women aged 15-24, but were largely unrelated to declines in fertility for Whites. For 18-19 year-old African-Americans, the group for whom teen childbearing is most normative, our model accounted for 85% of the decrease in rates of first births. Young Black women, especially older teens, may have adjusted their reproductive behavior to take advantage of expanded labor market opportunities.

  5. Steady-state thermodynamics for population growth in fluctuating environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sughiyama, Yuki; Kobayashi, Tetsuya J.

    2017-01-01

    We report that population dynamics in fluctuating environments is characterized by a mathematically equivalent structure to steady-state thermodynamics. By employing the structure, population growth in fluctuating environments is decomposed into housekeeping and excess parts. The housekeeping part represents the integral of the stationary growth rate for each condition during a history of the environmental change. The excess part accounts for the excess growth induced by environmental fluctuations. Focusing on the excess growth, we obtain a Clausius inequality, which gives the upper bound of the excess growth. The equality is shown to be achieved in quasistatic environmental changes. We also clarify that this bound can be evaluated by the "lineage fitness", which is an experimentally observable quantity.

  6. Freshening of the Labrador Sea Surface Waters in the 1990s: Another Great Salinity Anomaly

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Both the observed and simulated time series of the Labrador Sea surface salinities show a major freshening event since the middles. It continues the series of decoder events of the 1970s and 1980s from which the freshening in the early 1970's was named as the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA). These events are especially distinguishable in the late summer (August and September) time series. The observed data suggests that the 1990's freshening may equal the GSA in magnitude. This recent event is associated with a large reduction in the overturning rate between the early and latter part of the 1990s. Both the observations and model results indicate that the surface salinity conditions appear to be returning towards normal daring 1999 and 2000 in the coastal area, but offshore, the model predicts the freshening to linger on after peaking 1997.

  7. Accelerated deforestation in the humid tropics from the 1990s to the 2000s.

    PubMed

    Kim, Do-Hyung; Sexton, Joseph O; Townshend, John R

    2015-05-16

    Using a consistent, 20 year series of high- (30 m) resolution, satellite-based maps of forest cover, we estimate forest area and its changes from 1990 to 2010 in 34 tropical countries that account for the majority of the global area of humid tropical forests. Our estimates indicate a 62% acceleration in net deforestation in the humid tropics from the 1990s to the 2000s, contradicting a 25% reduction reported by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Forest Resource Assessment. Net loss of forest cover peaked from 2000 to 2005. Gross gains accelerated slowly and uniformly between 1990-2000, 2000-2005, and 2005-2010. However, the gains were overwhelmed by gross losses, which peaked from 2000 to 2005 and decelerated afterward. The acceleration of humid tropical deforestation we report contradicts the assertion that losses decelerated from the 1990s to the 2000s.

  8. United States-Japanese National Interests in Asia: Security in the 1990s

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-12-01

    National Security," in International Security, Vol. II, No. 2, Fall 1986, for a critique and rebuttal of the Maritime Strategy. 3 ’Julian S . Corbett...DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE Distribution is unlimited 4. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER( S ) S . MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER( S ) 6a. NAME OF...Interests in Asia: Security in the 1990s 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR( S ) Staples, Mark T. 13a. TYPE OF REPORT 13b. TIME COVERED 14. DATE OF REPORT (year, month, day

  9. The Next Energy Crisis: U.S. National Security Vulnerability in the 1990s

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    Vulnerability in the 1990s 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK...threat, and the ~ nternational and domestic actions needed to provide an adequate margin of energy security. THE 0I~ MARKET: CRISIS IN THE 1970~ In...the 1973 embargo, President Nixon launched Project Independence with a stated goal of eliminating oil imports in seven years. The plan placed heavy

  10. NASA plans and opportunities. [space flight activities throughout the 1990s

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sulzman, Frank M.

    1991-01-01

    The NASA plans for the Life Science program of a series of space flight activities throughout the decade of the 1990s are discussed with particular attention given to the NASA life science goals and objectives and to the particular space missions which will carry out these objectives. These space missions and specially designed facilities for experiments in space include Space Station Freedom, Space Biology Initiative, Gravitational Biology Facility, Life Sciences Centrifuge Facility, Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems Test Facility, and Exobiology Facility.

  11. Red blood cell transfusion practices in very low birth weight infants in 1990s postsurfactant era.

    PubMed Central

    Beeram, M. R.; Krauss, D. R.; Riggs, M. W.

    2001-01-01

    The purposes of this study are (1) to evaluate the practice of red blood cell transfusions in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants (between 501 to 1500 g) during the postsurfactant era of the 1990s; and (2) to evaluate if there is a decreasing trend in red cell transfusions in the 1990s. Database and medical records of VLBW infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) between January 1990 and December 1995 at Scott & White Clinic, Temple, Texas, were reviewed. Five hundred twenty-seven infants were admitted to the NICU, excluding 5 infants that were transferred out for possible cardiac surgery or for other reasons. Fifty one (9.7%) of these infants died prior to discharge. Hence, data from 476 survivors were reviewed for red blood cell (RBC) transfusions. Transfusions were given at the discretion of the attending neonatologist. None of the infants received erythropoietin. Of the 476 infants, 289 (61%) received RBC transfusions during the hospital stay, with 2.7+/-3.6 transfusions per infant with a volume of 40.5+/-50.4 mL/kg. Smaller infants required significantly more transfusions compared to larger infants when divided into 250-g subgroups. No statistically significant difference was noted in the number of RBC transfusions per infant or number of infants transfused during the 6-year period from year to year. We conclude that VLBW infants in the 1990s postsurfactant era required 2.7 RBC transfusions per infant, on average, with the smallest infants requiring the most transfusions. These data will be helpful to counsel mothers in preterm labor regarding the need of transfusions for each birth weight category. Red cell transfusion practice has not changed over this 6-year period in the 1990s. Additional measures such as erythropoietin or even stricter transfusion criteria may be necessary to decrease transfusions further. However, safety of such measures should be carefully evaluated. PMID:11688921

  12. Population growth and the development of a central place system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cromley, Robert G.; Hanink, Dean M.

    2008-12-01

    This paper describes the spatial and functional evolution of a central place system as market conditions change with population growth. Utilizing a partial equilibrium optimization model, we examine the spatial response of two economic sectors to increases in market populations resulting from natural increase and migration. Response in both sectors is conditioned by threshold demand, with factor prices also affecting one of the sectors. As the central place system evolves it exhibits spatial and functional characteristics that are initially consistent with a Löschian landscape, then a Christallerian landscape at higher populations, while at even larger populations Krugman’s landscape emerges.

  13. Relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic stepwise climate change during the 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Y.; Kimoto, M.; Watanabe, M.; Ishii, M.; Mochizuki, T.

    2012-11-01

    A linkage between climate change in the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans during the 1990s is investigated using three versions of the coupled climate model MIROC and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. From the early 1990s to the early 2000s, the observed sea surface temperature (SST) shows warming in the North Atlantic and a La Niña-like pattern in the Pacific. Associated with the SST pattern, the observations indicate a strengthened Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and enhanced precipitation in the tropical Atlantic. These SST and precipitation patterns are simulated well by hindcast experiments with external forcing and an initialized ocean anomaly state but are poorly simulated by uninitialized simulation with external forcing only. In particular, the observed La Niña-like SST pattern becomes prominent in ensemble members with large amplitudes of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index during 1996-1998. Our results suggest that ocean initialization in both the Pacific and the Atlantic plays an important role in predicting the Pacific stepwise climate change during the 1990s, which contributes to the accurate estimation of global temperature change in the coming decade. Forecasting typhoon frequency or marine fisheries production in the coming decade may be possible by improving the predictive skill of stepwise climate change.

  14. Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Haozhe; Yang, Jing; Gong, Daoyi; Mao, Rui; Wang, Yuqing; Gao, Miaoni

    2015-12-01

    A pronounced decadal change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the late 1990s was identified. Based on a comparison of the two epochs that occurred before and after the late 1990s, the TC genesis number exhibited an evident decrease over the southern WNP (S-WNP: 5°-20°N, 105°-170°E) and an increase over the northern WNP (N-WNP: 20°-25°N, 115°-155°E), which partly corresponded to a significant northward migration in the seasonal mean latitudinal location of TC genesis, i.e., from 17.2°N to 18.7°N. After the late 1990s, the northwestward-moving track became the most dominant track mode, accompanied by the weakening of both the westward-moving track and the northeastward-recurving track. Meanwhile, the TC occurrence frequency (TCF) experienced evident increases over southeastern China and the Okinawa islands, while prominent decreases occurred over the South China Sea, the Philippine Sea, Japan and east of Japan. Changes in the TCF were determined by TC genesis changes, TC track shifts and variations in regional TC durations, which were all ascribed to the decadal change in tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. The full picture on the decadal changes in the WNP TC activity revealed in this study may provide useful guidance for regional TC seasonal forecasts and future projections.

  15. Strengthened relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and ENSO after the mid-1990s during austral spring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Tingting; Wang, Huijun; Sun, Jianqi

    2017-01-01

    This paper documents a decadal strengthened co-variability of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and ENSO in austral spring after the mid-1990s. During the period 1979-93, the ENSO (AAO) spatial signatures are restricted to the tropics-midlatitudes (Antarctic-midlatitudes) of the Southern Hemisphere (SH), with a weak connection between the two oscillations. Comparatively, after the mid-1990s, the El Ni˜no-related atmospheric anomalies project on a negative AAO pattern with a barotropic structure in the mid-high latitudes of the SH. The expansion of El Ni˜no-related air temperature anomalies have a heightened impact on the meridional thermal structure of the SH, contributing to a weakened circumpolar westerly and strengthened subtropical jet. Meanwhile, the ENSO-related southern three-cell circulations expand poleward and then strongly couple the Antarctic and the tropics. Numerical simulation results suggest that the intensified connection between ENSO and SST in the South Pacific since the mid-1990s is responsible for the strengthened AAO-ENSO relationship.

  16. Decadal change of Tropical Cyclone Activity over western North Pacific around late-1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, H.; Yang, J.; Mao, R.; Wang, Y.; Gong, D.

    2014-12-01

    A pronounced decadal change of tropical cyclone (TC) activity was identified over western North Pacific (WNP) around late-1990s. After late-1990s, the WNP total TC genesis number exhibited an evident decrease, particularly over southern WNP region (S-WNP: 5oN-20oN), which was mainly caused by reduced vorticity and descending anomalies. We also detected a significant northward migration of TC genesis from 17.2°N to 18.7°N. The above TC genesis change is attributed to the weakening of monsoon trough and local Hadley cell that is associated with sea surface temperature climate shift around the late-1990s. In terms of three prevailing TC tracks changes, the northwestward-moving track (II) became the most dominant prevailing track mode while the westward-moving track (I) became weaker, and the northeastward-recurving track (III) had a westward shift. The track shifts primarily resulted from the large-scale steering flows change, which also had played a vital role in the modulation of TC regional duration. Thus, the subtropical East Asia tended to have a higher risk of encountering TC while the Southern China had a lower risk. Additionally, a visual reduction was seen in both number and proportion of typhoons reaching categories 1 and 2, and a remarkable poleward migration was also recognized in the average latitudes where TCs have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity.

  17. Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

    PubMed

    Okpala, A O

    1990-12-01

    The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

  18. [Economic growth and changes in the structure of the population].

    PubMed

    Conroy, M E

    1980-01-01

    A reevaluation of classic works by Simon Kuznets and Wassily Leontief suggests that their conclusions concerning the interrelationships between economic growth and population structure correspond to relatively highly specialized characteristics of present forms of capitalist development or underdevelopment and not necessarily to capitalist development within a new international economic order or to socialist development. Kuznets' work seems to offer conclusive proof of the negative effects of rapid population growth on economic development for 3 reasons: 1) requirements for capital are greater, 2) total production and per capita consumption are greatly reduced with high dependency ratios, and 3) rapid growth in consumption is more difficult when the population is growing more rapidly. However, at least 4 problems are noted when Kuznets' ideas are applied to the 3rd world. Kuznets assumes that growth of physical capital is the only source of growth, so that only increased investment can increase returns. Secondly, assuming the same ratio of capital/output for all cases assumes that no substitution of labor for capital is possible. Third, the assumption that participation rates remain the same regardless of dependency ratios may be incorrect. And finally, the difference in per capita consumption that Kuznets attributes to differences in rates of population growth represents a tiny proportion of the total gap in the standard of living of rich countries with slow population growth and poor countries with rapid growth. Kuznets' argument has considerable validity in Third World countries which relay on traditional patterns of capitalist accumulation, but the problems represent the effects of rapid population growth only under the current modes of capitalist expansion. The negative effect of high fertility on savings has probably been greatly exaggerated, and the problems of providing educational facilities and health care for ever larger numbers of persons have been

  19. Growth, survival, longevity, and population size of the Big Mouth Cave salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides) from the type locality in Grundy County, Tennessee, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Niemiller, Matthew L.; Glorioso, Brad M.; Fenolio, Dante B.; Reynolds, R. Graham; Taylor, Steven J.; Miller, Brian T.

    2016-01-01

    Salamander species that live entirely in subterranean habitats have evolved adaptations that allow them to cope with perpetual darkness and limited energy resources. We conducted a 26-month mark–recapture study to better understand the individual growth and demography of a population of the Big Mouth Cave Salamander (Gyrinophilus palleucus necturoides). We employed a growth model to estimate growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and longevity, and an open population model to estimate population size, density, detectability, and survival rates. Furthermore, we examined cover use and evidence of potential predation. Individuals probably reach sexual maturity in 3–5 years and live at least nine years. Survival rates were generally high (>75%) but declined during the study. More than 30% of captured salamanders had regenerating tails or tail damage, which presumably represent predation attempts by conspecifics or crayfishes. Most salamanders (>90%) were found under cover (e.g., rocks, trash, decaying plant material). Based on 11 surveys during the study, population size estimates ranged from 21 to 104 individuals in the ca. 710 m2 study area. Previous surveys indicated that this population experienced a significant decline from the early 1970s through the 1990s, perhaps related to silvicultural and agricultural practices. However, our data suggest that this population has either recovered or stabilized during the past 20 years. Differences in relative abundance between early surveys and our survey could be associated with differences in survey methods or sampling conditions rather than an increase in population size. Regardless, our study demonstrates that this population is larger than previously thought and is in no immediate risk of extirpation, though it does appear to exhibit higher rates of predation than expected for a species believed to be an apex predator of subterranean food webs.

  20. Modeling Bacterial Population Growth from Stochastic Single-Cell Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-01-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  1. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  2. Latino Population Growth and Hospital Uncompensated Care in California

    PubMed Central

    O’Brien, Matthew J.; Mennis, Jeremy; Alos, Victor A.; Grande, David T.; Roby, Dylan H.; Ortega, Alexander N.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined the association between the size and growth of Latino populations and hospitals’ uncompensated care in California. Methods. Our sample consisted of general acute care hospitals in California operating during 2000 and 2010 (n = 251). We merged California hospital data with US Census data for each hospital service area. We used spatial analysis, multivariate regression, and fixed-effect models. Results. We found a significant association between the growth of California’s Latino population and hospitals’ uncompensated care in the unadjusted regression. This association was still significant after we controlled for hospital and community population characteristics. After we added market characteristics into the final model, this relationship became nonsignificant. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that systematic support is needed in areas with rapid Latino population growth to control hospitals’ uncompensated care, especially if Latinos are excluded from or do not respond to the insurance options made available through the Affordable Care Act. Improving availability of resources for hospitals and providers in areas with high Latino population growth could help alleviate financial pressures. PMID:26066960

  3. Expert Group Meeting on Population Growth and Demographic Structure.

    PubMed

    1993-01-01

    As part of the preparation for the forth-coming UN International Conference on Population and Development, an expert group met in Paris, France, in November 1992 to discuss population growth and demographic structure. As part of the demographic background for the meeting provided by the UN Population Division, participants were informed that although the world population growth rate began to decline in the late 1970s, this decline has not yet resulted in declining absolute numbers, and the annual increment to the world population was not expected to decline to the level that existed in 1985 until the period 2020-25. World population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 5.3 billion in 1990. The medium variant population projection of the UN shows world population at 6.3 billion in 2000 and 8.5 billion in 2025 (the high variant shows 9.4 billion in 2025 and the low variant shows 7.6 billion). Population aging is expected to reach unparalleled levels in 2010-20. The meeting then considered the topics of population growth and socioeconomic development, confronting poverty in developing countries, demographic impacts of development patterns, demographic and health transitions, population growth and employment, social change and the elderly in developing countries, and social development and ageing in developed countries, The expert group meeting then prepared 19 recommendations aimed at governments, social institutions, and the international community. The recommendations call for political commitment to human resources development and population and development programs, especially in least developed countries, alleviation of poverty and social inequality, and equality of access to social and health resources that will lead to reduced mortality and fertility. Governments are urged to place a high priority on education and on increasing women's access to education and to remove barriers to economic independence for women. Health-sector priorities should be reassessed

  4. The Population Growth Consequences of Variation in Individual Heterozygosity

    PubMed Central

    Di Fonzo, Martina M. I.; Pelletier, Fanie; Clutton-Brock, T.H.; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Coulson, Tim

    2011-01-01

    Heterozygosity has been associated with components of fitness in numerous studies across a wide range of taxa. Because heterozygosity is associated with individual performance it is also expected to be associated with population dynamics. However, investigations into the association between heterozygosity and population dynamics have been rare because of difficulties in linking evolutionary and ecological processes. The choice of heterozygosity measure is a further issue confounding such studies as it can be biased by individual differences in the frequencies of the alleles studied, the number of alleles at each locus as well as the total number of loci typed. In this study, we first examine the differences between the principal metrics used to calculate heterozygosity using long-term data from a marked population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Next, by means of statistical transformation of the homozygosity weighted by loci index, we determine how heterozygosity contributes to population growth in Soay sheep by modelling individual contributions to population growth (pt(i)) as a function of several covariates, including sex, weight and faecal egg count – a surrogate of parasitic nematode burden in the gut. We demonstrate that although heterozygosity is associated with some components of fitness, most notably adult male reproductive success, in general it is only weakly associated with population growth. PMID:21611172

  5. Explosive genetic evidence for explosive human population growth.

    PubMed

    Gao, Feng; Keinan, Alon

    2016-12-01

    The advent of next-generation sequencing technology has allowed the collection of vast amounts of genetic variation data. A recurring discovery from studying larger and larger samples of individuals had been the extreme, previously unexpected, excess of very rare genetic variants, which has been shown to be mostly due to the recent explosive growth of human populations. Here, we review recent literature that inferred recent changes in population size in different human populations and with different methodologies, with many pointing to recent explosive growth, especially in European populations for which more data has been available. We also review the state-of-the-art methods and software for the inference of historical population size changes that lead to these discoveries. Finally, we discuss the implications of recent population growth on personalized genomics, on purifying selection in the non-equilibrium state it entails and, as a consequence, on the genetic architecture underlying complex disease and the performance of mapping methods in discovering rare variants that contribute to complex disease risk.

  6. Population growth, agrarian peasant economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Madulu, N F

    1995-03-01

    Population strategies to relieve the density pressures on land and resources in Tanzania have not considered the basic causes of population growth. Resettlement results in the same environmental degradation as in the original settlement. There should be a reduction in the population growth and planning of proper land use and resource exploitation before resettlement. Rural development must include a decline in the dependency on subsistence agriculture. Population in Tanzania increased by 213% during 1948-88. An absolute increase in population size during 1978-88 is recorded despite a slight decline in the rate of growth. Death rates declined, but birth rates were relatively stable at around 50 per 1000 population. Regions with the highest growth rates were Dar es Salaam (4.8%), Rukwa (4.3%), Arusha (3.8%), Mbeya (3.1%), and Ruvuma (3.2%). The regions with the lowest rates were Tanga and Kilimanjaro (2.1%), Coast (2.1%), Lindi (2%), and Mtwara (1.4%). Low growth rates are attributed to low fertility and high infertility. Other factors affecting high growth rates are culture, rates of natural increase, intensity of internal and international migration, climatic conditions, and availability of resources. In 1988 46% of the population was under 15 years old. Per capita land availability declined from 11.8 hectares in 1948 to 3.8 hectares in 1988. The number of landless peasants increased. Productivity declined, and distances to farms increased. The total fertility rate was 6.5 children per woman in 1988 and 6.1 during 1991-92. Slight declines were apparent in the crude birth rate also. High fertility was a response to universal marriage, low contraceptive use (7% using modern methods during 1991-92), declining lactation periods, high mortality rates, and old traditions favoring large families. Children were used extensively in time-consuming and labor-intensive activities, such as fetching water. The mean number of children ever born was higher among women with 1

  7. Meteorological limits on the growth and development of screwworm populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phinney, D. E.; Arp, G. K.

    1978-01-01

    A program to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data as an additional tool in existing and projected efforts to eradicate the screwworm began in 1973. Estimating weather conditions by use of remotely sensed data was part of the study. Next, the effect of weather on screwworm populations was modeled. A significant portion of the variation in screwworm population growth and development has been traced to weather-related parameters. This report deals with the salient points of the weather and the screwworm population interaction.

  8. Capital accumulation, endogenous population growth, and Easterlin cycles.

    PubMed

    Feichtinger, G; Dockner, E J

    1990-01-01

    "In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this 'strange' optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption."

  9. A Portrait of Young Adolescents in the 1990s: Implications for Promoting Healthy Growth and Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scales, Peter C.

    Designed to promote the creation of programs and policies that meet the needs of young adolescents, this report considers trends and forces affecting children between the ages of 10 and 15 and offers recommendations for drawing out adolescents' positive possibilities. Section 1 acknowledges trends that point to an increasing number of at-risk…

  10. Latin American and Caribbean regional conference on population and development. Latin American and Caribbean Consensus on Population and Development.

    PubMed

    1994-01-01

    The Latin American and Caribbean Population and Development Conference was held in Mexico City from April 29 to May 4, 1993, during which discussions were held on population growth, structure, and distribution in the region; socioeconomic trends and implications; population dynamics and development in the Caribbean subregion; population policies and programs; population growth and distribution and their relation to development and the environment; women and population dynamics; and family planning, health, and family well-being. The conference adopted the Latin American and Caribbean Consensus on Population and Development which is presented in sections on the situation of population and development in Latin America and the Caribbean in the early 1990s, and recommendations on population growth and structure, population distribution, development, the environment, women and population dynamics, population policies and programs, health, family planning and well-being, international migration and development, training, data production, research, and international cooperation in the population field.

  11. Effects of body size and temperature on population growth.

    PubMed

    Savage, Van M; Gilloly, James F; Brown, James H; Charnov, Eric L

    2004-03-01

    For at least 200 years, since the time of Malthus, population growth has been recognized as providing a critical link between the performance of individual organisms and the ecology and evolution of species. We present a theory that shows how the intrinsic rate of exponential population growth, rmax, and the carrying capacity, K, depend on individual metabolic rate and resource supply rate. To do this, we construct equations for the metabolic rates of entire populations by summing over individuals, and then we combine these population-level equations with Malthusian growth. Thus, the theory makes explicit the relationship between rates of resource supply in the environment and rates of production of new biomass and individuals. These individual-level and population-level processes are inextricably linked because metabolism sets both the demand for environmental resources and the resource allocation to survival, growth, and reproduction. We use the theory to make explicit how and why rmax exhibits its characteristic dependence on body size and temperature. Data for aerobic eukaryotes, including algae, protists, insects, zooplankton, fishes, and mammals, support these predicted scalings for rmax. The metabolic flux of energy and materials also dictates that the carrying capacity or equilibrium density of populations should decrease with increasing body size and increasing temperature. Finally, we argue that body mass and body temperature, through their effects on metabolic rate, can explain most of the variation in fecundity and mortality rates. Data for marine fishes in the field support these predictions for instantaneous rates of mortality. This theory links the rates of metabolism and resource use of individuals to life-history attributes and population dynamics for a broad assortment of organisms, from unicellular organisms to mammals.

  12. Proximate causes of adaptive growth rates: growth efficiency variation among latitudinal populations of Rana temporaria.

    PubMed

    Lindgren, B; Laurila, A

    2005-07-01

    In ectothermic organisms, declining season length and lower temperature towards higher latitudes often select for latitudinal variation in growth and development. However, the energetic mechanisms underlying this adaptive variation are largely unknown. We investigated growth, food intake and growth efficiency of Rana temporaria tadpoles from eight populations along a 1500 km latitudinal gradient across Sweden. To gain an insight into the mechanisms of adaptation at organ level, we also examined variation in tadpole gut length. The tadpoles were raised at two temperatures (16 and 20 degrees C) in a laboratory common garden experiment. We found increased growth rate towards higher latitudes, regardless of temperature treatment. This increase in growth was not because of a higher food intake rate, but populations from higher latitudes had higher growth efficiency, i.e. they were more efficient at converting ingested food into body mass. Low temperature reduced growth efficiency most strongly in southern populations. Relative gut length increased with latitude, and tadpoles at low temperature tended to have longer guts. However, variation in gut length was not the sole adaptive explanation for increased growth efficiency as latitude and body length still explained significant amounts of variation in growth efficiency. Hence, additional energetic adaptations are probably involved in growth efficiency variation along the latitudinal gradient.

  13. Changes in growth and reproductive traits of dragonet Callionymus valenciennei in Tokyo Bay, concurrent with decrease in stock size.

    PubMed

    Kodama, Keita; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Shiraishi, Hiroaki; Horiguchi, Toshihiro

    2014-02-01

    We examined changes in the growth and reproductive traits of dragonet Callionymus valenciennei concurrent with decrease in stock size in Tokyo Bay. Stock size in mid 2000s decreased to 14% of that recorded in early 1990s. The minimum standard length at which dragonet attain gonadal maturation was smaller in 2000s (4.8 cm) compared to that in 1990s (6.0 cm). In addition, timing of the onset of the first spawning became earlier in 2000s (starting from spring) than that in 1990s (from summer). We also found significant changes in growth for both sexes from 1990s to 2000s; growth of dragonet after they attained sexual maturation showed a significant decrease in 2000s against that in 1990s. Changes in the life history traits may reflect trade-off for allocating available energy resource to reproduction rather than to somatic growth under limited prey abundance for enhancing a chance for stock recovery. However, these changes in the life history traits might have not led to the resilience of the population due to negative effects of hypoxia on settlement of larvae from the spring spawning season.

  14. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  15. The Educational Effects of Rapid Rural Population Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross, Peggy J.; Green, Bernal L.

    Rapid population growth in rural areas has confronted rural communities and particularly rural educational systems with a number of problems. Sudden, large increases in students crowd school facilities and strain budgets. The different values, attitudes, and orientations toward education of the newcomers act as a catalyst for changes and can cause…

  16. Computer Simulation of the Population Growth (Schizosaccharomyces Pombe) Experiment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daley, Michael; Hillier, Douglas

    1981-01-01

    Describes a computer program (available from authors) developed to simulate "Growth of a Population (Yeast) Experiment." Students actively revise the counting techniques with realistically simulated haemocytometer or eye-piece grid and are reminded of the necessary dilution technique. Program can be modified to introduce such variables…

  17. Atmospheric methane isotopic record favors fossil sources flat in 1980s and 1990s with recent increase

    PubMed Central

    Rice, Andrew L.; Butenhoff, Christopher L.; Teama, Doaa G.; Röger, Florian H.; Khalil, M. Aslam K.; Rasmussen, Reinhold A.

    2016-01-01

    Observations of atmospheric methane (CH4) since the late 1970s and measurements of CH4 trapped in ice and snow reveal a meteoric rise in concentration during much of the twentieth century. Since 1750, levels of atmospheric CH4 have more than doubled to current globally averaged concentration near 1,800 ppb. During the late 1980s and 1990s, the CH4 growth rate slowed substantially and was near or at zero between 1999 and 2006. There is no scientific consensus on the drivers of this slowdown. Here, we report measurements of the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4 (13C/12C and D/H) from a rare air archive dating from 1977 to 1998. Together with more modern records of isotopic atmospheric CH4, we performed a time-dependent retrieval of methane fluxes spanning 25 y (1984–2009) using a 3D chemical transport model. This inversion results in a 24 [18, 27] Tg y−1 CH4 increase in fugitive fossil fuel emissions since 1984 with most of this growth occurring after year 2000. This result is consistent with some bottom-up emissions inventories but not with recent estimates based on atmospheric ethane. In fact, when forced with decreasing emissions from fossil fuel sources our inversion estimates unreasonably high emissions in other sources. Further, the inversion estimates a decrease in biomass-burning emissions that could explain falling ethane abundance. A range of sensitivity tests suggests that these results are robust. PMID:27621453

  18. Atmospheric methane isotopic record favors fossil sources flat in 1980s and 1990s with recent increase.

    PubMed

    Rice, Andrew L; Butenhoff, Christopher L; Teama, Doaa G; Röger, Florian H; Khalil, M Aslam K; Rasmussen, Reinhold A

    2016-09-27

    Observations of atmospheric methane (CH4) since the late 1970s and measurements of CH4 trapped in ice and snow reveal a meteoric rise in concentration during much of the twentieth century. Since 1750, levels of atmospheric CH4 have more than doubled to current globally averaged concentration near 1,800 ppb. During the late 1980s and 1990s, the CH4 growth rate slowed substantially and was near or at zero between 1999 and 2006. There is no scientific consensus on the drivers of this slowdown. Here, we report measurements of the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4 ((13)C/(12)C and D/H) from a rare air archive dating from 1977 to 1998. Together with more modern records of isotopic atmospheric CH4, we performed a time-dependent retrieval of methane fluxes spanning 25 y (1984-2009) using a 3D chemical transport model. This inversion results in a 24 [18, 27] Tg y(-1) CH4 increase in fugitive fossil fuel emissions since 1984 with most of this growth occurring after year 2000. This result is consistent with some bottom-up emissions inventories but not with recent estimates based on atmospheric ethane. In fact, when forced with decreasing emissions from fossil fuel sources our inversion estimates unreasonably high emissions in other sources. Further, the inversion estimates a decrease in biomass-burning emissions that could explain falling ethane abundance. A range of sensitivity tests suggests that these results are robust.

  19. Atmospheric methane isotopic record favors fossil sources flat in 1980s and 1990s with recent increase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rice, Andrew L.; Butenhoff, Christopher L.; Teama, Doaa G.; Röger, Florian H.; Khalil, M. Aslam K.; Rasmussen, Reinhold A.

    2016-09-01

    Observations of atmospheric methane (CH4) since the late 1970s and measurements of CH4 trapped in ice and snow reveal a meteoric rise in concentration during much of the twentieth century. Since 1750, levels of atmospheric CH4 have more than doubled to current globally averaged concentration near 1,800 ppb. During the late 1980s and 1990s, the CH4 growth rate slowed substantially and was near or at zero between 1999 and 2006. There is no scientific consensus on the drivers of this slowdown. Here, we report measurements of the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4 (13C/12C and D/H) from a rare air archive dating from 1977 to 1998. Together with more modern records of isotopic atmospheric CH4, we performed a time-dependent retrieval of methane fluxes spanning 25 y (1984-2009) using a 3D chemical transport model. This inversion results in a 24 [18, 27] Tg y-1 CH4 increase in fugitive fossil fuel emissions since 1984 with most of this growth occurring after year 2000. This result is consistent with some bottom-up emissions inventories but not with recent estimates based on atmospheric ethane. In fact, when forced with decreasing emissions from fossil fuel sources our inversion estimates unreasonably high emissions in other sources. Further, the inversion estimates a decrease in biomass-burning emissions that could explain falling ethane abundance. A range of sensitivity tests suggests that these results are robust.

  20. Role of abortion in control of global population growth.

    PubMed

    Mumford, S D; Kessel, E

    1986-03-01

    No nation desirous of reducing its growth rate to 1% or less can expect to do so without the widespread use of abortion. This observational study, based on the experience of 116 of the world's largest countries, supports the contention that abortion is essential to any national population growth control effort. The principal findings are: Except for a few countries with ageing populations and very high contraceptive prevalence rates, developed countries will need to maintain abortion rates generally in the range of 201-500 abortions per 1000 live births if they are to maintain growth rates at levels below 1%. The current rate in the USA is 426 abortions per 1000 live births. Developing countries, on the other hand, are faced with a different and more difficult set of circumstances that require even greater reliance on abortion. No developing nation wanting to reduce its growth to less than 1% can expect to do so without the widespread use of abortion, generally at a rate greater than 500 abortions per 1000 live births. Widespread availability of abortion is a necessary but not sufficient condition to achieve growth rates below 1%. A high contraceptive prevalence is essential as well in order to achieve growth rates below 1%. A high contraceptive prevalence is a necessary but not sufficient condition to achieve population growth rates below 1%. A high rate of abortion (generally 201-500 or more abortions per 1000 live births in the developed and greater than 500 abortions per 1000 live births in the developing countries) is essential to achieve growth rates below 1%. The different and more difficult set of circumstances faced by developing countries that will necessitate even higher abortion rates than developed countries includes a young population with resultant rapidly growing numbers of young fertile women, poor contraceptive use-effectiveness, low prevalence of contraception, and poor or non-existent systems for providing contraceptives. These data show that

  1. Factors associated with trends in infant and child mortality in developing countries during the 1990s.

    PubMed Central

    Rutstein, S. O.

    2000-01-01

    The 1990s have seen a remarkable decrease in mortality among infants and children in most developing countries. In some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, these declines in mortality among children have slowed and are now increasing again. Internationally comparable data derived from survey programmes, such as the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) programme, are available both to document the changes that have occurred in mortality and to provide insight into some of the factors that may explain these trends in mortality. The factors found in repeated DHS programmes that explain these trends fall into five categories: fertility behaviour; nutritional status, breastfeeding, and infant feeding; the use of health services by mothers and for children; environmental health conditions; and socioeconomic status. Both simple analyses and multivariate analyses of changes in these factors between surveys indicate that all factors affected the mortality trends. However, to explain trends in mortality, the variables themselves had to have changed over time. During the 1990s fertility behaviour, breastfeeding, and infant feeding have changed less than other factors and so would seem to have played a smaller role in mortality trends. This study confirms that trends in mortality during the 1990s were related to more than just a handful of variables. It would, therefore, be a mistake to concentrate policy actions on one or a few of these while forsaking others. Countries with the largest decreases in mortality have had substantial improvements in most of the factors that might be used to explain these changes. In some countries mortality has risen. In part these increases can be explained by the factors included in this study, such as deterioration in seeking medical care for children with fever. Other factors that were not measured, such as the increasing resistance of malaria to drug treatment and the increased prevalence of parental HIV/AIDS, may be contributing

  2. Solid earth science in the 1990s. Volume 1: Program plan

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    This is volume one of a three volume series. A plan for solid earth science research for the next decade is outlined. The following topics are addressed: scientific requirements; status of current research; major new emphasis in the 1990's; interagency and international participation; and the program implementation plan. The following fields are represented: plate motion and deformation; lithospheric structure and evolution; volcanology; land surface (processes of change); earth structure and dynamics; earth rotation and reference frames; and geopotential fields. Other topics of discussion include remote sensing, space missions, and space techniques.

  3. Analyses of the lunar surface with advanced remote sensors: Expectations for the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pieters, Carle M.

    1991-01-01

    Today's advanced sensor capabilities provide unprecedented opportunities for exploration that mesh well with the science requirements for a sophisticated integration of several types of remotely acquired information. Science priorities for the 1990's include an evaluation of the global composition and structure of the primordial lunar crust in order to model its origin and evolution, using the Moon as a natural laboratory to study the impact process and time-cumulative events at 1 AU, and, ultimately, constraining the origin of the Moon and its relation to Earth.

  4. Solid Earth science in the 1990s. Volume 3: Measurement techniques and technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Reports are contained from the NASA Workshop on Solid Earth Science in the 1990s. The techniques and technologies needed to address the program objectives are discussed. The Measurement Technique and Technology Panel identified (1) candidate measurement systems for each of the measurements required for the Solid Earth Science Program that would fall under the NASA purview; (2) the capabilities and limitations of each technique; and (3) the developments necessary for each technique to meet the science panel requirements. In nearly all cases, current technology or a development path with existing technology was identified as capable of meeting the requirements of the science panels. These technologies and development paths are discussed.

  5. How have hospitals faced the pricing issues of the 1990's?

    PubMed

    Kleimenhagen, A; Naidu, G M; Pillari, G D

    1994-01-01

    National health care expenditures are rising rapidly, bringing on a health care financing crisis. For this reason, it is useful to see how hospitals are facing the price issues of the 1990's. This study examines the price strategies hospitals follow and analyzes their observations on price sensitivity and payer mix. The results clearly show that hospitals have not given much attention to the pricing variable. The study suggests that marketing and finance will have to work closely together in developing future pricing strategies.

  6. Latin American social medicine: roots, development during the 1990s, and current challenges.

    PubMed

    Tajer, Débora

    2003-12-01

    Latin American social medicine arose during the 1950s and 1960s, drawing its inspiration from the social movements that emerged in France, Germany, and England in the mid-19th century. The Latin American movement of social medicine has clear ideological goals. It is organized around the Latin American Association of Social Medicine, which was founded in 1984 and is regarded as a social, political, and academic movement. This article takes a historical perspective and presents the reasons for the emergence and identity of the association, focusing on the main developments and contributions of this movement from the 1990s until the present time.

  7. Latin American Social Medicine: Roots, Development During the 1990s, and Current Challenges

    PubMed Central

    Tajer, Débora

    2003-01-01

    Latin American social medicine arose during the 1950s and 1960s, drawing its inspiration from the social movements that emerged in France, Germany, and England in the mid-19th century. The Latin American movement of social medicine has clear ideological goals. It is organized around the Latin American Association of Social Medicine, which was founded in 1984 and is regarded as a social, political, and academic movement. This article takes a historical perspective and presents the reasons for the emergence and identity of the association, focusing on the main developments and contributions of this movement from the 1990s until the present time. PMID:14652326

  8. Flight management - Pilot procedures and system interfaces for the 1980-1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wempe, T. E.

    1974-01-01

    In the air transportation system of the 1980-1990's, aircraft must perform with greater precision in time and position than is possible today. Rapid development in electronics technology makes renovation in airborne-system concepts feasible. The Ames Research Center is conducting research on pilot procedures and pilot-system interfaces for such systems. Research on various pilot-system interface devices and manned simulations was conducted to study rules of distributed decision making authority among pilots and controllers with various airborne display concepts, and a pilot-oriented command logic for the control of avionic systems was studied. Results are summarized, and ongoing work and future research plans described.

  9. Habitat-Specific Population Growth of a Farmland Bird

    PubMed Central

    Arlt, Debora; Forslund, Pär; Jeppsson, Tobias; Pärt, Tomas

    2008-01-01

    Background To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use) types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands) displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log λs: −0.332, −0.429, −0.168, respectively), that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log λs: −0.056, +0.081, −0.059). Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE). Conclusions/Significance Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands. PMID:18714351

  10. Study of a tracking and data acquisition system for the 1990's. Volume 1: User community characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccreary, T.

    1981-01-01

    Projected 1990's experiments; navigation requirements and potentials; communications requirements associated with space experiments; alternative forecast options; and operational impacts on experiments are covered. A baseline of plans for the TDAS User Community, including a set of generic experiments developed to supplement existing planning for the 1990's time frame is generated. It includes extensive summaries of collected data, and a bibliography. The data are representative of inputs obtained from NASA planning sources through September 1981.

  11. Contrasting signatures of population growth for mitochondrial DNA and Y chromosomes among human populations in Africa.

    PubMed

    Pilkington, Maya Metni; Wilder, Jason A; Mendez, Fernando L; Cox, Murray P; Woerner, August; Angui, Thiep; Kingan, Sarah; Mobasher, Zahra; Batini, Chiara; Destro-Bisol, Giovanni; Soodyall, Himla; Strassmann, Beverly I; Hammer, Michael F

    2008-03-01

    A history of Pleistocene population expansion has been inferred from the frequency spectrum of polymorphism in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) of many human populations. Similar patterns are not typically observed for autosomal and X-linked loci. One explanation for this discrepancy is a recent population bottleneck, with different rates of recovery for haploid and autosomal loci as a result of their different effective population sizes. This hypothesis predicts that mitochondrial and Y chromosomal DNA will show a similar skew in the frequency spectrum in populations that have experienced a recent increase in effective population size. We test this hypothesis by resequencing 6.6 kb of noncoding Y chromosomal DNA and 780 basepairs of the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit III (COIII) gene in 172 males from 5 African populations. Four tests of population expansion are employed for each locus in each population: Fu's Fs statistic, the R(2) statistic, coalescent simulations, and the mismatch distribution. Consistent with previous results, patterns of mtDNA polymorphism better fit a model of constant population size for food-gathering populations and a model of population expansion for food-producing populations. In contrast, none of the tests reveal evidence of Y chromosome growth for either food-gatherers or food-producers. The distinct mtDNA and Y chromosome polymorphism patterns most likely reflect sex-biased demographic processes in the recent history of African populations. We hypothesize that males experienced smaller effective population sizes and/or lower rates of migration during the Bantu expansion, which occurred over the last 5,000 years.

  12. Alternative agendas. System priorities for the 1990s will differ from those of the last decade.

    PubMed

    Coyle, M; Koebel, C

    1990-12-01

    The Sisters of Charity Health Care Systems (SCHCS) was established in 1979 in response to changes in the U.S. healthcare system and to new needs of sponsors and Catholic healthcare facilities. However, the agenda that SCHCS leaders (and leaders of other systems) set at that time must now give way to an agenda that will address the new challenges and responsibilities facing the Catholic healthcare ministry in the 1990s. In its first decade of existence, SCHCS established and fulfilled a number of goals: It strengthened governance relationships, helped systems and sponsors better identify with local communities, enabled facilities to steward resources more effectively, and facilitated members' understanding of mission and sponsorship values. In the 1990s, however, systems will have to create more opportunities for regional, collaborative, and networking relationships among member facilities and between members and non-members. To achieve this, they will have to reevaluate their structures, find ways to faciliatate collaboration, make resources available to institutions outside the system, and develop an overall philosophy that enhances both the fiscal and spiritual well-being of member facilities.

  13. Oil & gas in the 1990`s and beyond: Adequate supplies, growing demand, flat prices

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, J.L.

    1995-06-01

    Long term petroleum market fundamentals are clear: supplies are adequate and world demand will continue to grow steadily. Adequate supplies insure that prices will not increase significantly, on average, till the end of the 1990`s, probably much beyond. Despite plentiful supply and modest price increases, there will be peaks and valleys in the price graph as productive capacity is used up, then expanded. Tens of billions of dollars will be needed over the next decade to expand producing capacity. World oil consumption will increase at about 1.5% per year, at least for the next decade. Demand in Asia and Latin America will grow several times faster than this average world rate. World natural gas demand will grow at more then 2% per year well past 2000. Oil and gas companies around the world have changed the way they operate to survive the market realities of the 1990`s. restructuring, outsourcing, and partnering will continue as increasing costs and flat prices squeeze profits. Energy use patterns will change. Fuel and other product specifications will change. Market shares of oil and gas will shift. But opportunities abound in this new market environment. Growing markets always provide opportunities. Technology has helped operators dramatically lower finding, developing, and producing costs. The petroleum age is far from being over. Growing markets, adequate supply, affordable products, and a 60% market share. Those are the signs of an industry with a bright future.

  14. IAEA Safeguards and technical support programs: POTAS in the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Kessler, C.J. . Office of Nuclear Technology and Safeguards); Reisman, A.W. )

    1991-01-01

    The US Program of Technical Assistance to IAEA Safeguards (POTAS) has since 1978 provided technology and technical assistance to the IAEA to support its nuclear safeguards activities. The present level of support, $6.9 million per year, equals 10% of the Department of Safeguards annual budget. During the next decade, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will face new technical challenges in carrying out its verification activities. To help the IAEA acquire the technology and other technical support that it will require in the 1990s, POTAS expects to continue its assistance, both in the areas established in the past and in additional areas dictated by newly identified IAEA safeguards requirements. This paper will look at the political and policy context within which the Department of Safeguards, and hence POTAS, operates, and how that context is expected to evolve over the next decade. The roles and functions of POTAS will be identified and discussed in terms of their historical evolution. Lastly, the paper will consider how POTAS is expected to change during the 1990s, both to maintain effectiveness in existing roles and functions, and to meet the challenge of the changing policy context. 5 refs.

  15. Spatial scaling of avian population dynamics: population abundance, growth rate, and variability.

    PubMed

    Jones, Jason; Doran, Patrick J; Holmes, Richard T

    2007-10-01

    Synchrony in population fluctuations has been identified as an important component of population dynamics. In a previous study, we determined that local-scale (<15-km) spatial synchrony of bird populations in New England was correlated with synchronous fluctuations in lepidopteran larvae abundance and with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we address five questions that extend the scope of our earlier study using North American Breeding Bird Survey data. First, do bird populations in eastern North America exhibit spatial synchrony in abundances at scales beyond those we have documented previously? Second, does spatial synchrony depend on what population metric is analyzed (e.g., abundance, growth rate, or variability)? Third, is there geographic concordance in where species exhibit synchrony? Fourth, for those species that exhibit significant geographic concordance, are there landscape and habitat variables that contribute to the observed patterns? Fifth, is spatial synchrony affected by a species' life history traits? Significant spatial synchrony was common and its magnitude was dependent on the population metric analyzed. Twenty-four of 29 species examined exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance: mean local autocorrelation (rho)= 0.15; mean spatial extent (mean distance where rho=0) = 420.7 km. Five of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in annual population growth rate (mean local autocorrelation = 0.06, mean distance = 457.8 km). Ten of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance variability (mean local autocorrelation = 0.49, mean distance = 413.8 km). Analyses of landscape structure indicated that habitat variables were infrequent contributors to spatial synchrony. Likewise, we detected no effects of life history traits on synchrony in population abundance or growth rate. However, short-distance migrants exhibited more spatially extensive synchrony in population variability than either year

  16. Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

    2016-08-01

    Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.

  17. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    PubMed

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  18. Growth rates in a captive population of Tonkean macaques.

    PubMed

    Sanna, Andrea; De Marco, Arianna; Thierry, Bernard; Cozzolino, Roberto

    2015-07-01

    Measuring variations in body mass is necessary to gain a deeper understanding of the evolution of life-history patterns, and it provides information on the timing of sexual maturity and the development of sexual dimorphism. In this study, we collected longitudinal data on body mass from infancy to adulthood in a captive population of Tonkean macaques (Macaca tonkeana). Tests to evaluate whether social group, maternal age, and dominance rank influenced growth rates showed that they had no significant effect. We investigated the timing and magnitude of breaking points in the growth paths of males and females, and checked whether these breaking points could correspond to specific reproductive and morphological developmental events. We found that male and female Tonkean macaques have roughly equivalent body masses until around the age of four, when males go through an adolescent growth spurt and females continue to grow at a constant rate. Males not only grow faster than females, but they also continue to grow for nearly one and a half years after females have attained their full body mass. Growth rate differences account for approximately two-thirds of the body mass sexual dimorphism; only the remaining third results from continued male growth beyond the age where full body mass is reached in females. We also discovered remarkable correspondences between the timing of testicular enlargement and the adolescent growth spurt in males, and between dental development and slowdown breaking points in both sexes.

  19. Sweden Faces Zero Population Growth. Population Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 2, June, 1980.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gendell, Murray

    This bulletin examines the causes of the fertility decline in Sweden and the concerns and ambivalence of Swedes about zero population growth (ZPG). The fertility decline is attributed to many causes. In recent years there has been a drop in marriage rates and a sharp increase in non-marital cohabitation. The decline is also related to the…

  20. Minimal models of growth and decline of microbial populations.

    PubMed

    Juška, Alfonsas

    2011-01-21

    Dynamics of growth and decline of microbial populations were analysed and respective models were developed in this investigation. Analysis of the dynamics was based on general considerations concerning the main properties of microorganisms and their interactions with the environment which was supposed to be affected by the activity of the population. Those considerations were expressed mathematically by differential equations or systems of the equations containing minimal sets of parameters characterizing those properties. It has been found that: (1) the factors leading to the decline of the population have to be considered separately, namely, accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium and the exhaustion of resources; the latter have to be separated again into renewable ('building materials') and non-renewable (sources of energy); (2) decline of the population is caused by the exhaustion of sources of energy but no decline is predicted by the model because of the exhaustion of renewable resources; (3) the model determined by the accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium does not suggest the existence of a separate 'stationary phase'; (4) in the model determined by the exhaustion of energy resources the 'stationary' and 'decline' phases are quite discernible; and (5) there is no symmetry in microbial population dynamics, the decline being slower than the rise. Mathematical models are expected to be useful in getting insight into the process of control of the dynamics of microbial populations. The models are in agreement with the experimental data.

  1. Bacterial populations growth under co- and counter-flow condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesser, Francesca; Zeegers, Jos C. H.; Clercx, Herman J. H.; Toschi, Federico

    2014-11-01

    For organisms living in a liquid ecosystem, flow and flow gradients play a major role on the population level: the flow has a dual role as it transports the nutrient while dispersing the individuals. In absence of flow and under homogeneous conditions, the growth of a population towards an empty region is usually described by a reaction diffusion equation. The solution predicts the expansion as a wave front (Fisher wave) proceeding at constant speed, till the carrying capacity is reached everywhere. The effect of fluid flow, however, is not well understood and the interplay between transport of individuals and nutrient opens a wide scenario of possible behaviors. In this work, we experimentally observe non-motile E. coli bacteria spreading inside rectangular channels in a PDMS microfluidic device. By use of a fluorescent microscope we analyze the dynamics of the population density subjected to different co- and counter-flow conditions and shear rates.

  2. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  3. What is Growth? Concurrent determination of a bacterial population's many shades of growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lambert, Guillaume; Kussell, Edo

    2013-03-01

    One of the most exciting developments in the study of the physics of microbial life is the ability to precisely monitor stochastic variations of gene expression in individual cells. A fundamental question is whether these variations improve the long-term ability of a population to adapt to new environments. While variations in gene expression in bacteria are easily measured through the use of reporter systems such as green fluorescent proteins and its variants, precise determination of a cell's growth rate, and how it is influenced by its immediate environment, remains challenging. Here, we show that many conflicting and ambiguous definitions of bacterial growth can actually be used interchangeably in E. coli. Indeed, by monitoring small populations of E. coli bacteria inside a microfluidic device, we show that seemingly independent measurements of growth (elongation rate and the average division time, for instance) agree very precisely with one another. We combine these definitions with the population's length and age distribution to very precisely quantify the influence of temperature variations on a population's growth rate. We conclude by using coalescence theory to describe the evolution of a population's genetic structure over time.

  4. Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casey, Gregory; Galor, Oded

    2017-01-01

    We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to population and income per capita in an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the elasticity with respect to population is nearly seven times larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, the regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. We find that by 2100 C.E. moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be part of the approach to combating global climate change.

  5. Tracking and data acquisition system for the 1990's. Volume 7: TDAS space technology assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khatri, R.

    1983-01-01

    The results of the TDAS and user spacecraft technology assessment effort are provided. For each TDAS Satellite enhancement and user spacecraft element previously enumerated, the technology issues are identified and the R&D needed to resolve these issues is delineated. Subsequently, taking into account developments taking place elsewhere, the addition unique TDAS satellite module and user spacecraft element R&D efforts needed are identified, and conclusions are drawn in each case. From these conclusions, it is evident that with additional unique R&D efforts carried out for TDAS and appropriate user spacecraft elements the desired TDAS' capabilities for the 1990's can be realized and user spacecraft can be implemented that adequately interface with the projected TDAS.

  6. Halo-orbit and lunar-swingby missions of the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farquhar, Robert W.

    1990-01-01

    A significant number of spacecraft are planning to use halo orbits and lunar-swingby trajectories in the next decade. Four spacecraft will be placed into halo orbits around the earth's sunward libration point, while two others will be stationed near the sun-earth L2 libration point in the distant geomagnetic tail. Six spacecraft, including two of the aforementioned halo orbiters, will make use of lunar-swingby maneuvers to fulfill their mission objectives. Thus, a total of ten spacecraft, five from the Soviet Union, two from Japan, two from the United States, and one from the European Space Agency, will employ halo orbits and/or lunar-swingby trajectories in the 1990's. Pertinent facts are presented for each of these missions.

  7. Instrument pointing technology for spaceborne science missions of the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laskin, R. A.; Sirlin, S. W.

    1984-01-01

    The technologies which will permit sub-0.1 arcsec pointing accuracies on spacecraft in the 1990s are examined, along with the accuracies required and the current state of the art. Of particular interest are multi-mission spacecraft. Pointing accuracy can only be obtained by integrating the instrument (telescope) as part of the spacecraft, minimizing disturbances and using reaction wheels for pointing. The pointer could be isolated from complex spacecraft disturbances by soft mechanical mounts, e.g., inflatible tethers, guy-wire suspension and fluidic pointing systems. All design options are being explored for the Space Station, Earth Observing System, Co-orbiting platform and GEO platform spacecraft, and for near-term planetary spacecraft which will employ nuclear electric propulsion.

  8. Mental health policy for the 1990s: tinkering in the interstices.

    PubMed

    Bloche, M G; Cournos, F

    1990-01-01

    That public policy has abysmally failed the chronically mentally ill seems beyond genuine dispute. Successive reforms have foundered on the familiar shoals of overblown expectations and insufficient resources. In this paper, we review current policies affecting the chronic and disabled mentally ill, and we consider some approaches to reform. We begin by trying to identify and characterize the chronically mentally ill and their disabilities. Next, we consider the chaotic patchwork of federal and state programs that has come to replace the asylum. We then criticize several competing models of reform that we believe fail to make an empathic connection with the mentally ill. Finally, we urge a strategy of limited reform consistent with available empirical data about program effectiveness and sensitive to the likely economic, political, and legal constraints of the 1990s.

  9. Clinical technology assessment, cost-effective adoption, and quality management by hospitals in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Veluchamy, S; Saver, C L

    1990-06-01

    Technology assessment in the 1990s must become an integral part of a hospital's strategic priority goals, with active participation of physicians and top management. Technology assessment should involve a wide range of criteria and health care consumer expectations, so that the appropriateness, effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and quality improvement aspects of new technologies are all considered. Mount Carmel Health's Advanced Treatment and Bionics Institute (ATBI), established in 1986, monitors significant developments in new technologies and performs technology and outcomes assessments. ATBI activities, which have facilitated adoption of 35 treatment-based projects, are integrated into the existing QA structure of Mount Carmel hospitals. Through resolution of identified problems, quality care can be promoted, while providing patients innovative medical treatments.

  10. Health Reform in Ceará: the process of decentralisation in the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Medeiros, Regianne Leila Rolim; Atkinson, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this article is to offer an overview of the health reform in Ceará focusing on the decentralisation process in the 1990s. The driving factor behind the Brazilian health reform movement was the necessity to reorganise the national health system and overcome inequalities. For the reformists, decentralisation, and together with it the idea of popular participation, is seen as essential to guarantee the fulfilment of the people’s needs and to incorporate their voice in the decision-making processes of the health system. In the state of Ceará, after the 1986 elections, health reform movement members took control over the management of the state Health Secretariat. This is the main cause of the acceleration of the decentralisation process with the transference of responsibility over the management of health care delivery to municipalities. PMID:25729333

  11. Possible causes of the interdecadal transition of the Somali jet around the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Ziniu; Shi, Wenjing; Yang, Ping

    2015-04-01

    This observational study demonstrates that the Somali jet (SMJ) experienced a notable interdecadal transition in not only its lower-level parts (< 850 hPa) but also its higher-level parts (850-600 hPa) in the late 1990s. The results also show that the jet at higher level is more significantly related to East Asian monsoon rainfall than that at lower level. Thus, a new whole-layer SMJ (WSMJ) index which includes variations of the higher-level jet is defined based on the average meridional wind speed at five levels (1000-600 hPa). The interdecadal transition of the SMJ can be mainly attributed to the meridional thermal contrast anomalies near the equator which are associated with the three-pole pattern of the southern Indian Ocean.

  12. A data distribution strategy for the 1990s (files are not enough)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tankenson, Mike; Wright, Steven

    1993-01-01

    Virtually all of the data distribution strategies being contemplated for the EOSDIS era revolve around the use of files. Most, if not all, mass storage technologies are based around the file model. However, files may be the wrong primary abstraction for supporting scientific users in the 1990s and beyond. Other abstractions more closely matching the respective scientific discipline of the end user may be more appropriate. JPL has built a unique multimission data distribution system based on a strategy of telemetry stream emulation to match the responsibilities of spacecraft team and ground data system operators supporting our nations suite of planetary probes. The current system, operational since 1989 and the launch of the Magellan spacecraft, is supporting over 200 users at 15 remote sites. This stream-oriented data distribution model can provide important lessons learned to builders of future data systems.

  13. Aeronautical research in the United States - Challenges for the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petersen, Richard H.; Holmes, Bruce J.

    1990-01-01

    An overview is presented of NASA R&D initiatives in air transportation technologies that will dominate its efforts through the 1990s. These efforts are to be concentrated in (1) advanced subsonic transports with greater fuel economy, passenger capacity, and control effectiveness, whose design will be undertaken with state-of-the-art CFD and CAD/CAM systems; (2) a second-generation SST whose propulsion system will be substantially more fuel-efficient than that of Concorde and have far lower atmospheric emissions; and (3) a hypersonic transport predicated on the results of research into materials, cryogenic fuels, propulsion cycles, and propulsion/airframe aerodynamics integration, which will be undertaken in connection with the X-30 testbed.

  14. Changes in the North Pacific wave climate since the mid-1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasaki, Wataru

    2014-11-01

    Since the mid-1990s, ocean wave reanalysis and in situ wave observations have revealed marked downward trends in wave height, exceeding -0.1 m per decade in the midlatitude North Pacific. The wave period in the tropical Pacific is also on a downward trend, exceeding -0.4 s per decade during this period. These changes in wave climate in the Pacific are attributable to recently strengthened trade winds and La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific. The downward trend in significant wave height in the midlatitude North Pacific is due to strengthening of the negative phase of the Pacific-North American teleconnection. Numerical experimentations with a wave model also showed that the downward trend in the wave period in the eastern equatorial Pacific was induced not only by increased wind waves due to strengthened trade winds but also by weakened propagating swells from the midlatitude North Pacific.

  15. Predicted solar flare activity for the 1990s - Possible effects on navigation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Kunches, J.M.; Hirman, J.W. )

    1990-01-01

    The current solar cycle, which began in September 1986, may prove to be the highest ever, as measured by sunspot numbers and radio flux. The cycle's frequent and strong solar flare activity can be illustrated by the March 1989 episode, which caused many problems for navigation systems. Flares and the geomagnetic storms that sometimes accompany them can disrupt low-frequency systems such as Loran-C, as well as the satellite-borne GPS. Although the maximum of the solar cycle is expected during the first quarter of 1990, flare activity is likely to persist at high levels for a few years to follow. Geomagnetic activity may occur at any time in the cycle, and thus geomagnetic disruptions are possible at any point in the 1990s. 5 refs.

  16. HEPAP Subpanel on the US High Energy Physics Research Program for the 1990's

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-04-01

    The entire community of high energy physicists looks expectantly to the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) era. The SSC is the highest priority in the US high energy physics (HEP) program, and physics at the SSC will increasingly become its focus. In this report, the High Energy Physics Advisory Panel (HEPAP) Subpanel on the US High Energy Physics Research Program for the 1990's examines how the National HEP program can go forward vigorously in the period of preparation for the SSC. The Subpanel concluded early that a viable and productive physics research program in the next decade on a range of promising fronts is essential for this field to continue to attract and educate scientists of great creativity. The Subpanel found that such a program requires both exploiting existing opportunities and undertaking some new initiatives. The recommendations are based on the constant budget scenario,'' which the Subpanel interprets as averaging the FY 1991 budget level over the next decade.

  17. Integrated remote sensing of the earth from low earth orbit in the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, D. M.

    1984-01-01

    Trends in the areas of science, data systems, instruments and space technologies and their related infrastructures that will be experienced in earth remote sensing activities from LEO in the 1990s are discussed. Interdisciplinary studies will examine the flow of energy through the earth system, encompassing surveys of atmospheric and ocean circulations, the hydrologic cycle, and biogeochemical cycles. Mainframe computer assimilation of large data inputs will be associated with distributed microcomputer processing and analyses. Single satellite antennas will scan several microwave frequencies simultaneously, e.g., taking data on vegetation, water, and ice. Broadening the range of simultaneous observations will require multiinstrumented free-flying platforms, placed in orbit, repaired and/or retrieved by the Shuttle. Future instrumentation will include visible/IR imagers and the multifrequency microwave sounders with capabilities mainly limited by the availability of sufficient data-handling facilities.

  18. Health Reform in Ceará: the process of decentralisation in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Medeiros, Regianne Leila Rolim; Atkinson, Sarah

    2009-06-30

    The objective of this article is to offer an overview of the health reform in Ceará focusing on the decentralisation process in the 1990s. The driving factor behind the Brazilian health reform movement was the necessity to reorganise the national health system and overcome inequalities. For the reformists, decentralisation, and together with it the idea of popular participation, is seen as essential to guarantee the fulfilment of the people's needs and to incorporate their voice in the decision-making processes of the health system. In the state of Ceará, after the 1986 elections, health reform movement members took control over the management of the state Health Secretariat. This is the main cause of the acceleration of the decentralisation process with the transference of responsibility over the management of health care delivery to municipalities.

  19. The NASA cosmic ray program for the 1990's and beyond

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahlen, S. P.; Binns, W. R.; Cherry, M. L.; Gaisser, T. K.; Jones, W. V.; Ling, J. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Muller, D.; Ormes, J. O.; Ramaty, R.

    1990-01-01

    The interim report of the 1989 NASA Cosmic Ray Program Working Group is presented. The report summarizes the cosmic ray program for the 1990's, including the recently approved ACE, Astromag, HNC, POEMS, and SAMPEX missions, as well as other key elements of the program. New science themes and candidate missions are identified for the first part of the 21st century, including objectives that might be addressed as part of the Human Exploration Initiative. Among the suggested new thrusts for the 21st century are: an Interstellar Probe into the nearby interstellar medium; a Lunar-Based Calorimeter to measure the cosmic ray composition near 10 exp 16 eV; high-precision element and isotope spectroscopy of ultraheavy elements; and new, more sensitive studies of impulsive solar flare events.

  20. Computer-aided analysis at NASA Langley Research Center - Looking toward the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petersen, Richard H.

    1985-01-01

    Aerospace research is inextricably intertwined with the programmable digital computer. Engineers and scientists at NASA Langley Research Center are requiring ever-increasing computing resources to carry out basic and applied research on problems and complex systems that would have been unthinkable Just ten years ago. The rapid changes in computer technology make planning for the future especially difficult, even five years in advance. In this paper, the evolution of computer resources and usage in research at Langley are briefly considered over the past thirty years, followed by a snapshot of the present. Finally, an extrapolation to the 1990's computer environment is made, with some thoughts on the tasks that engineers might face, and the background they will probably need.

  1. Regime shift of the South China Sea SST in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Bijoy; Tkalich, Pavel; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2017-03-01

    Decadal variability of the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) during 1982-2014 is investigated using observations and ocean reanalysis datasets. The SCS SST shows an abrupt transition from a cold-to-warm regime in the late 1990s. Based on the long-term SST variability two epochs are defined, 1982-1996 and 2000-2014 as cold and warm regimes respectively, spanning on either side of the 1997-1999 SCS warming. Despite the occurrence of strong El Nino induced warming events, the SST anomalies tend to be negative in the cold regime. Conversely during the warm regime, the positive SST anomalies have dominated over the La Nina driven cooling events. The cold (warm) SST regime is marked by net heat gain (loss) by the SCS. The long-term variations of net surface heat flux are mainly driven by the latent heat flux anomalies while the short wave flux plays a secondary role. Low-frequency variability of the South China Sea throughflow (SCSTF) appears to be closely related to the SCS SST regime shift. The SCSTF shows reversing trends during the cold and warm epochs. The weakened SCSTF in the warm regime has promoted the SCS warming by limiting the outward flow of warm water from the SCS. Meanwhile, enhanced SCSTF during the cold regime acts as a cooling mechanism and lead to persistent negative SST anomalies. The change in trend of the SCSTF and SST regime shift coincides with the switching of pacific decadal oscillation from a warm to cold phase in the late 1990s.

  2. Freshening of the upper ocean in the South China Sea since the early 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nan, Feng; Yu, Fei; Xue, Huijie; Zeng, Lili; Wang, Dongxiao; Yang, Shilun; Nguyen, Kim-Cuong

    2016-12-01

    Ocean salinity is often used as a dynamical tracer for investigating the Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea (SCS). In this study, we found that the upper-ocean water in the SCS had a freshening trend since the early 1990s. Salinity in the upper 100 m of the SCS (SSCS) decreased by 0.24 psu in the period 1993-2012, yielding a negative trend of -0.012 psu yr-1. The maximum freshening occurred in the surface layer west of the Luzon Strait, and freshening gradually lessened from northeast to southwest and with depth, indicating the important influence of the Kuroshio intrusion. Quantitative analysis of salinity budget from the surface to 100 m depth in the SCS suggests that the weakened Kuroshio intrusion is the leading factor controlling the SSCS freshening, while the increased air-sea freshwater flux plays a minor role. Based on GODAS (Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) model output, the Luzon Strait transport (LST) in the upper 100 m decreased in a negative trend of -0.12 Sv yr-1 (1 Sv=106 m3 s-1) from 1993 to 2012, corresponding to a freshening trend of the SSCS at a rate of -0.011 psu yr-1. Both the LST and SSCS changes are closely related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our findings demonstrate that the strength of the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS weakened markedly since the PDO phase shifted in 1990s, which resulted in the pronounced freshening of the SCS water.

  3. Tobacco lobby political influence on US state legislatures in the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Givel, M.; Glantz, S.

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND—Throughout the 1990s the tobacco lobby was a potent political force in US state legislatures advancing its pro-tobacco agenda.
OBJECTIVE—To describe the market and political motivations of the tobacco lobby and the strategies they use to achieve these goals in US state legislatures.
DESIGN—This study is a content analysis and summary overview of recently released historical tobacco industry documents; tobacco related government documents; and recent state tobacco control policy reports.
RESULTS—In the 1990s, the tobacco lobby engaged in a comprehensive and aggressive political effort in state legislatures to sell tobacco with the least hindrance using lobbying, the media, public relations, front groups, industry allies, and contributions to legislators. These efforts included campaigns to neutralise clean indoor air legislation, minimise tax increases, and preserve the industry's freedom to advertise and sell tobacco. The tobacco lobby succeeded in increasing the number of states that enacted state pre-emption of stricter local tobacco control laws and prevented the passage of many state tobacco control policies. Public health advocates were able to prevent pre-emption and other pro-tobacco policies from being enacted in several states.
CONCLUSIONS—The tobacco lobby is a powerful presence in state legislatures. Because of the poor public image of the tobacco lobby, it seeks to wield this power quietly and behind the scenes. State and local health advocates, who often have high public credibility, can use this fact against the tobacco lobby by focusing public attention on the tobacco lobby's political influence and policy goals and expose links between the tobacco lobby and its legislative supporters.


Keywords: political lobbying; state legislatures; industry PMID:11387532

  4. Population growth and poverty in the developing world.

    PubMed

    Birdsall, N

    1980-12-01

    The links between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty currently affecting 780 million people in the developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) were examined. Absolute poverty is defined as having less than the income necessary to ensure a daily diet of 2150 calories per person ($200 per person a year in 1970 United States dollars). Focus is on poverty and demography in the developing world (defining poverty; income, fertility and life expectancy; demographic change and poverty), effect of poverty on fertility, family planning programs and the poor, and the outlook for the future. Rapid population growth stretches both national and family budgets thin with the increasing numbers of children to be fed and educated and workers to be provided with jobs. Slower per capita income growth, lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and more poverty are the probable consequences. Many characteristics of poverty can cause high fertility -- high infant mortality, lack of education for women in particular, too little family income to invest in children, inequitable shares in national income, and the inaccessibility of family planning. Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba and Costa Rica demonstrate that birthrates can decline rapidly in low income groups and countries when basic health care, education, and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available.

  5. Population growth and United States politics in the 1970s.

    PubMed

    Nash, A E

    1973-01-01

    The 2 themes of this century, increasing environmental fragility and increasing human demands on government, are underlined by the failure of government to effectively govern, and the complex technology and modern communication systems which further divide the developing nations from the developed ones. Population stabilization may help relieve the tension between increasing expectation from government and the fiscal bind in 3 ways: 1)a higher per capita income would increase per capita government revenue which would have a better chance of meeting citizen expectations, 2)a moderately redistributive effect on personal income might occur by decreasing unwanted fertility through the dynamics of economics and increasing the role of government in elevating living standards, and 3)with reduction of government expenditure per capita, the cost of providing any given level of service would decrease. The nuclear age has altered the concept of what constitutes national security. Rapid population growth in the developing countries is also significant, and the United States economy depends on overseas investment. A constructive foreign policy, as opposed to neoimperialism or isolationism, is recommended to help influence world population growth.

  6. Individual growth rates in natural field vole, Microtus agrestis, populations exhibiting cyclic population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Burthe, Sarah Janette; Lambin, Xavier; Telfer, Sandra; Douglas, Alex; Beldomenico, Pablo; Smith, Andrew; Begon, Michael

    2010-03-01

    Rodents that have multi-annual cycles of density are known to have flexible growth strategies, and the "Chitty effect", whereby adults in the high-density phase of the cycle exhibit larger average body mass than during the low phase, is a well-documented feature of cyclic populations. Despite this, there have been no studies that have repeatedly monitored individual vole growth over time from all phases of a density cycle, in order to evaluate whether such variation in body size is due to differences in juvenile growth rates, differences in growth periods, or differential survival of particularly large or small voles. This study compares growth trajectories from voles during the peak, increase and crash phases of the cycle in order to evaluate whether voles are exhibiting fast or slow growth strategies. We found that although voles reach highest asymptotic weights in the peak phase and lowest asymptotes during the crash, initial growth rates were not significantly different. This suggests that voles attain larger body size during the peak phase as a result of growing for longer.

  7. Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

    PubMed

    Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

    2008-05-01

    The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations.

  8. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  9. Dental arch dimensions in the mixed dentition: a study of Italian children born in the 1950s and the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Defraia, Efisio; Baroni, Giulia; Marinelli, Andrea

    2006-05-01

    The objective of this study was to compare the dental arch dimensions in the mixed dentition in two modern samples living in the same geographic area and separated by almost 35 years. A group of 83 subjects (39 boys and 44 girls) born between 1953 and 1959 (mean age: eight years and three months +/-15 months for the boys and seven years and 11 months +/-12 months for the girls) were compared with a group of 84 subjects (38 boys and 46 girls) born between 1990 and 1998 (mean age: eight years and eight months +/-12 months for the boys and eight years and four months +/-11 months for the girls). Measurements were taken on dental casts for posterior and anterior arch segments, intermolar and intercanine width, and mesiodistal size of incisors. The available anterior space in both arches and the posterior and anterior transverse dimensions were calculated. Groups were compared using a nonparametric test (Mann-Whitney U-test) for independent samples (P < .05). Results show that both boys and girls of 1990s showed significantly smaller maxillary intermolar width when compared with 1950s. Posterior transverse interarch discrepancy was significantly minor in girls of 1990s. The present population has a greater probability of developing a malocclusion as a consequence of the secular trend toward the reduction of the width of the upper arch.

  10. Herbivory: effects on plant abundance, distribution and population growth

    PubMed Central

    Maron, John L; Crone, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    Plants are attacked by many different consumers. A critical question is how often, and under what conditions, common reductions in growth, fecundity or even survival that occur due to herbivory translate to meaningful impacts on abundance, distribution or dynamics of plant populations. Here, we review population-level studies of the effects of consumers on plant dynamics and evaluate: (i) whether particular consumers have predictably more or less influence on plant abundance, (ii) whether particular plant life-history types are predictably more vulnerable to herbivory at the population level, (iii) whether the strength of plant–consumer interactions shifts predictably across environmental gradients and (iv) the role of consumers in influencing plant distributional limits. Existing studies demonstrate numerous examples of consumers limiting local plant abundance and distribution. We found larger effects of consumers on grassland than woodland forbs, stronger effects of herbivory in areas with high versus low disturbance, but no systematic or unambiguous differences in the impact of consumers based on plant life-history or herbivore feeding mode. However, our ability to evaluate these and other patterns is limited by the small (but growing) number of studies in this area. As an impetus for further study, we review strengths and challenges of population-level studies, such as interpreting net impacts of consumers in the presence of density dependence and seed bank dynamics. PMID:17002942

  11. Reproductive health, population growth, economic development and environmental change.

    PubMed

    Lincoln, D W

    1993-01-01

    World population will increase by 1000 million, or by 20%, within 10 years. Ninety-five per cent of this increase will occur in the South, in areas that are already economically, environmentally and politically fragile. Morbidity and mortality associated with reproduction will be greater in the current decade than in any period in human history. Annually, 40-60 million pregnancies will be terminated and 5-10 million children will die within one year of birth. AIDS-related infections, e.g. tuberculosis, will undermine health care in Africa (and elsewhere) and in places AIDS-related deaths will decimate the work-force. The growth in population and associated morbidity will inhibit global economic development and spawn new problems. The key issues are migration, the spread of disease, the supply of water and the degradation of land, and fiscal policies with respect to family planning, pharmaceuticals and Third-World debt. Full education, particularly of women, and more effective family planning in the South have the power to unlock the problem. Failure will see the developed countries, with their 800 million population, swamped by the health, economic and environmental problems of the South, with its projected population of 5400 million people for the year 2000.

  12. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    PubMed

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

  13. [Environmental pollution and population growth in Latin America].

    PubMed

    Viel, B

    1983-01-01

    3 factors are always involved in causation of infectious disease: the causal organism, an adverse environment, and nutritional status. As knowledge of degenerative and mental illnesses advances, their relationship to environmental problems becomes clearer. Health in the human being as in all living things is the product of ecological equilibrium. In countries with high mortality rates, the majority of deaths occur in the early years of life. Countries enjoying low mortality rates are those that have protected themselves against environmental deterioration. The Roman civilization, the 1st to have large cities, built aqueducts to protect the water supply from contamination. With the disappearance of the Roman Empire the concern for purity of the water supply also disappeared, and the cities of the Middle Ages became breeding grounds for epidemics. In the early 19th century John Snow demonstrated the role of water in the transmission of cholera and thereafter the concern with potable water and sewage disposal was reborn. The Industrial Revolution eventually allowed sufficient accumulation of wealth to permit improved nutrition. Environmental sanitation and improved food supply produced a new ecological equilibrium, and Western Europe began to have lower and lower mortality rates. Paralleling the decline in deaths a new spirit of responsible parenthood and delayed marriage was lowering birth rates. Population growth, which never exceeded 1%, had the additional escape valve of emigration to America and Australia. The true cause of environmental degradation is man. When human beings were few their contaminants were readily obsorbed by the environment, but as they proliferate the environment is increasingly unable to absorb their pollution by natural processes. Industrial fumes, deforestation, and polluted rivers are only the symptoms of contamination. In the developed countries, technological innovations minimizing industrial pollution and lower population growth are

  14. Temporal evolution of the anthropogenic CO2 and acidification of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savy, J.-P.; Yao, K. M.; Touratier, F.; Goyet, C.

    2012-04-01

    Since the beginning of the industrial era, humankind consumption of fossil fuels at increasing rates has led to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by approximately 105 ppm. In the same time, the Mediterranean coastal regions experienced a brutal population growth, from 94 million habitants in 1950 to 274 million in 2000, generating a strong anthropogenic pressure on the Mediterranean marine ecosystems. To follow the man-induced changes on the Mediterranean carbonate system properties (pH; total alkalinity, AT; total inorganic carbon CT, and CO2 partial pressure, pCO2), an entire body-research has recently emerged in order to quantify both the present and future penetration of anthropogenic carbon (CANT) in the Mediterranean Sea and the inferred acidification of its waters. From monthly observations accumulated over more than a decade (from 1993 to 2005) at DYFAMED time-series station (DYnamique des Flux Atmosphériques en MEDiterranée) located in the central part of the Ligurian Sea, Touratier and Goyet (2009) have estimated the temporal evolution of CANT of the western Mediterranean Sea. This study highlights that concentrations of anthropogenic CO2 are much higher at DYFAMED site (> 50 mol.kg-1) than those found in the Atlantic Ocean. Our study, conducted with measurements performed at 10 meters depth from 1995 to 2011 at the same location, allowed us to investigate the temporal evolution of CANT into the upper seawater layer. Our results indicate an averaged annual CANT increase of 3 µmol.kg-1 and a linked pH drop of 0.0032 per year confirming the ongoing acidification of the Mediterranean water masses. These results suggest the vulnerability and the endangerment of the Mediterranean ecosystems by the massive human-induced CO2 emissions. Touratier F. and C. Goyet (2009). Decadal evolution of anthropogenic CO2 in the north western Mediterranean Sea (at the Dyfamed site) from the mid-1990's to the mid-2000's. Deep Sea Research Part I, 56, 1708-1716

  15. Global warming, population growth, and natural resources for food production.

    PubMed

    Pimentel, D

    1991-01-01

    Destruction of forests and the considerable burning of fossil fuels is directly causing the level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases including methane, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere to rise. Population growth in the US and the world indirectly contributes to this global warming. This has led the majority of scientists interested in weather and climate to predict that the planet's temperature will increase from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. These forecasted climactic changes will most likely strongly affect crop production. Specifically these scientists expect the potential changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, and pests to decrease food production in North America. The degree of changes hinges on each crop and its environmental needs. If farmers begin using improved agricultural technology, the fall in crop yields can be somewhat counterbalanced. Even without global warming, however, agriculture in North America must embrace sensible ecological resource management practices such as conserving soil, water, energy, and biological resources. These sustainable agricultural practices would serve agriculture, farmers, the environment, and society. Agriculturalists, farmers, and society are already interested in sustainable agriculture. Still scientists must conduct more research on the multiple effects of potential global climate change on many different crops under various environmental conditions and on new technologies that farmers might use in agricultural production. We must cut down our consumption of fossil fuel, reduce deforestation, erase poverty, and protect our soil, water, and biological resources. The most important action we need to take, however, is to check population growth.

  16. Will there be a 14C minimum in the tropical Pacific in the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Toggweiler, J.R. )

    1990-01-09

    14C distributions measured during GEOSECS showed large minima in bomb 14C levels in the tropical belts of the major ocean basins. Broecker et al. (1978, JGR, 83) attributed the minima to upwelling of deep water which was free of bomb 14C. Wyrtki (1981, JPO, 11) countered that heat budgets constrain the water upwelling the the equator to be from the upper themocline. Druffel (1987, JMR, 45) built a model of the Pacific upwelling system incorporating Wyrtki's description of the upwelling system. Druffel showed that the GEOSECS 14C minimum could be reproduced with upwelled upper thermocline water because bomb 14C levels were still relatively low in the tropical thermocline at the time of GEOSECS. Druffel went on to predict that mid latitude and tropical surface 14C levels would approach a common value before the 1990s and upper thermocline water masses acquired more bomb 14C and atmospheric 14C levels declined. By studying pre-bomb coral 14C records and a model simulation in Toggweiler et al. (1989, JGR, 94), I have found confirmation that some older and colder water upwells in the tropical Pacific. Upper thermocline (22-24C) water has about the same pre-bomb 14C content as pre-bomb surface waters and cannot generate a low 14C singal prior to the bomb test. The appearance of the oldest upwelled water in the coral data is correlated in time with the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. Most of the low 14C water moves southward into the South Pacific. I will argue that intensified upwelling during the cold phase of ENSO pulls up 12-14C water from the lower layers of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Upwelling from this layer may represent an important closure mechanism for mode waters formed in the subantarctic. A source of older water makes it certain that the tropical 14C minimum will persist through the 1990s and the remainder of the post-bomb era.

  17. Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations.

    PubMed

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2013-03-01

    Long-distance dispersal is an integral part of plant species migration and population development. We aged and genotyped 1125 individuals in four disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa that were initially established by long-distance dispersal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Parentage analysis was used to determine if individuals were the product of local reproductive events (two parents present), long-distance pollen dispersal (one parent present) or long-distance seed dispersal (no parents present). All individuals established in the first century at each site were the result of long-distance dispersal. Individuals reproduced at younger ages with increasing age of the overall population. These results suggest Allee effects, where populations were initially unable to expand on their own, and were dependent on long-distance dispersal to overcome a minimum-size threshold. Our results demonstrate that long-distance dispersal was not only necessary for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion.

  18. Hydrocarbon occurrences in igneous and metamorphic rocks: Plays of the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Harrelson, D.W.

    1989-09-01

    A review of available geologic literature has indicated numerous references detailing the occurrences of hydrocarbon in igneous and metamorphic rocks. Notable among these references is a paper by Chung-Hsiang P'an and a group of papers edited by Sidney Powers. Collectively, these papers conclude a biogenic source for hydrocarbons, most of which occur in (1) weathered igneous and metamorphic reservoir rocks that are higher than the source rocks (e.g., Amarillo field) or (2) igneous and metamorphic rocks that exert structural or stratigraphic control on the reservoir or source rocks (e.g., Jackson dome and the Wiggins anticline-Hancock ridge). It should be noted that a new twist on the abiogenic origin of some inert hydrocarbon gases (i.e., helium and nitrogen) proposes a degassing of igneous and metamorphic rocks from sources in the underlying mantle. Recent european super-deep tests (e.g., the Siljan Ring and the Kola SG-3 testholes) have attempted, with mixed results, to verify this theory. Drilling for these deep igneous and metamorphic prospects today is considered at or below economic basement or worse - a rank wildcat. However, these plays should become increasingly commercial in the 1990s as deeper drilling technology progresses, the current oil glut is eliminated, and more exotic deep gas prospects become accepted.

  19. Benchmarks for health expenditures, services and outcomes in Africa during the 1990s.

    PubMed Central

    Peters, D. H.; Elmendorf, A. E.; Kandola, K.; Chellaraj, G.

    2000-01-01

    There is limited information on national health expenditures, services, and outcomes in African countries during the 1990s. We intend to make statistical information available for national level comparisons. National level data were collected from numerous international databases, and supplemented by national household surveys and World Bank expenditure reviews. The results were tabulated and analysed in an exploratory fashion to provide benchmarks for groupings of African countries and individual country comparison. There is wide variation in scale and outcome of health care spending between African countries, with poorer countries tending to do worse than wealthier ones. From 1990-96, the median annual per capita government expenditure on health was nearly US$ 6, but averaged US$ 3 in the lowest-income countries, compared to US$ 72 in middle-income countries. Similar trends were found for health services and outcomes. Results from individual countries (particularly Ethiopia, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Gabon) are used to indicate how the data can be used to identify areas of improvement in health system performance. Serious gaps in data, particularly concerning private sector delivery and financing, health service utilization, equity and efficiency measures, hinder more effective health management. Nonetheless, the data are useful for providing benchmarks for performance and for crudely identifying problem areas in health systems for individual countries. PMID:10916913

  20. Did the elimination of lead from petrol reduce crime in the USA in the 1990s?

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    This article assesses the evidence for the hypothesis that a decline in all types of crime since the early 1990s in the USA was a consequence of removing lead from petrol between 1975 and 1985. It describes ecological and econometric studies that have generally but not always found correlations between lead exposures in childhood and some types of crime 20 years later; a small number of epidemiological studies that have found a dose-response relationship between lead exposure in childhood and self-reported and officially recorded criminal offences in young adulthood; and evidence for the biological plausibility of a causal relationship. Lead exposure in childhood may have played a small role in rising and falling crime rates in the USA but it is unlikely to account for the very high percentage of the decline suggested by the ecological studies. The major anomaly in the evidence is that the associations reported in ecological studies are much stronger (explaining 56-90% of the variation in crime rates) than the weaker relationships found in the cohort studies (that typically explain less than 1% of the variance in offending).  Suggestions are made for research that will better assess the contribution that reduced lead exposure has made to declining crime rates in the USA. PMID:24555074

  1. Particle astrophysics - The NASA cosmic ray program for the 1990s and beyond

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, W. V. (Editor); Kerr, Frank J. (Editor); Ormes, Jonathan F. (Editor)

    1990-01-01

    Various papers on particle astrophysics are presented. Individual topics addressed include: the NASA cosmic ray (CR) program for the 1990s and beyond, SAMPEX Mission overview, the Advanced Composition Explorer, Positron Electron Magnet Spectrometer for the Eos Mission, Heavy Nucleus Collector for Space Station, the Astromag Facility, Large Isotope Spectrometer for Astromag, the Solar Probe Mission, the Mercury Dual Orbiter Mission, CRs in the heliosphere, origin of high-energy Galactic CRs, CR studies with the Gamma-Ray Observatory, gamma-ray astronomy at 1 TeV, experimental search for point sources above 1 TeV, the UMC Extensive Air Shower Array, status of the MACRO experiment. Also discussed are: CRs above 1 TeV/n and neutrino astronomy, abundance of ultraheavy nuclei in solar energetic particles, CR studies with an interstellar probe, isotopic composition of CR nuclei beyond the iron peak, experimental studies of CR isotopic composition up to Zr-40, use of accelerators in particle astrophysics, development of long-duration ballooning in Antarctica, Lunar-Based Heavy Nucleus Detector, neutrino astronomy on the moon, gamma rays at airplane altitudes, source composition of CRs.

  2. Broadening not strengthening of the Agulhas Current since the early 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beal, Lisa M.; Elipot, Shane

    2016-12-01

    Western boundary currents—such as the Agulhas Current in the Indian Ocean—carry heat poleward, moderating Earth’s climate and fuelling the mid-latitude storm tracks. They could exacerbate or mitigate warming and extreme weather events in the future, depending on their response to anthropogenic climate change. Climate models show an ongoing poleward expansion and intensification of the global wind systems, most robustly in the Southern Hemisphere, and linear dynamical theory suggests that western boundary currents will intensify and shift poleward as a result. Observational evidence of such changes comes from accelerated warming and air-sea heat flux rates within all western boundary currents, which are two or three times faster than global mean rates. Here we show that, despite these expectations, the Agulhas Current has not intensified since the early 1990s. Instead, we find that it has broadened as a result of more eddy activity. Recent analyses of other western boundary currents—the Kuroshio and East Australia currents—hint at similar trends. These results indicate that intensifying winds may be increasing the eddy kinetic energy of boundary currents, rather than their mean flow. This could act to decrease poleward heat transport and increase cross-frontal exchange of nutrients and pollutants between the coastal ocean and the deep ocean. Sustained in situ measurements are needed to properly understand the role of these current systems in a changing climate.

  3. The dynamical analogy between microbial growth on mixtures of substrates and population growth of competing species.

    PubMed

    Narang, A

    1998-07-05

    There is a similarity between the metabolic dynamics of a microbial species growing on a mixture of two substrates and the dynamics of growth of two competing populations. Specifically, the enzymes catalyzing the uptake and catabolism of substrates exhibit phenomena analogous to extinction and coexistence."Extinction" of the enzymes associated with one of the substrates results in sequential utilization of the substrates (diauxie) (Monod, 1942). "Coexistence" of the enzymes associated with the substrates results in simultaneous utilization of the substrates (Egli, 1995). Here, we formulate a simple model that shows the basis for this dynamical similarity: The equations describing the evolution of the enzyme levels are dynamical analogs of the Lotka-Volterra model for two competing species. The analogy suggests ways of capturing the experimentally observed preculture-dependent growth patterns, i.e., growth patterns that vary depending on the physiological state of the preculture.

  4. The Condition of the Diverse Regions of Rural America at the Start of the Decade of the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, E. Robert

    This paper constructs a profile of the condition of the diverse areas of rural America at the Beginning of the 1990s. The widely used designation of metropolitan or nonmetropolitan areas based on the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) does not describe the diverse nature of rural America. One alternative typology differentiates nonmetro counties…

  5. Development Goals and Strategies for Children in the 1990s. A UNICEF Policy Review. Executive Board Decision 1990-2.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This document presents proposals for goals and strategies for children and development in the 1990s that were approved by the UNICEF Executive Board in April, 1990. The paper proposes that developing human capabilities and meeting basic human needs should be the focus of the UNICEF contribution to the fourth United Nations developmental decade.…

  6. Reconsidering Gender Roles on MTV: Depictions in the Most Popular Music Videos of the Early 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gow, Joe

    1996-01-01

    Finds that popular music videos of the early 1990s continued to underrepresent women, with men outnumbering women in lead roles by almost a 5 to 1 margin, and presenting women in a much narrower range of lead roles. Finds also that popular music videos portrayed women in a manor that emphasized physical appearance rather than musical ability. (SR)

  7. Massification, Bureaucratization and Questing for "World-Class" Status: Higher Education in China since the Mid-1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ngok, Kinglun

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: This article aims to review the latest developments of the higher education sector in China since the mid-1990s by focusing on the expansion of university education. Design/methodology/approach: It is argued that while massification of higher education is an important indication of the progress in China's higher education system, the…

  8. The Quality of Life of Hong Kong's Poor Households in the 1990s: Levels of Expenditure, Income Security and Poverty

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Hung

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the changes in the quality of life of poor households in Hong Kong in the late 1990s by analyzing their levels of expenditure, income security and poverty before and after 1997. Though there have been significant increases in the levels of expenditure among CSSA recipients, the expenditure among these poorest households in Hong…

  9. Turning Points: Books and Reports that Reflected and Shaped U.S. Education, 1749-1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Franklin

    This document explores a selection influential books and reports on U.S. education that appeared between 1749 and the 1990s. The analysis begins with Benjamin Franklin's "Proposals Relating to the Education of Youth in Pennsylvania", early writings on women's and adult education, the McGuffey reader of the mid-nineteenth century, and…

  10. Constructivism and the Neoliberal Agenda in the Spanish Curriculum Reform of the 1980s and 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rodriguez, Encarna

    2011-01-01

    This article challenges the assumption underlying most education reforms that constructivism is politically neutral and intrinsically democratic. It makes this argument by examining the curriculum reform in Spain during the 1980s and 1990s in light of the neoliberal politics that the country was experiencing at that time. This study employs the…

  11. Financing the American Community College in the 1990's: A New Kind of Blues or the Same Old Tune?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Summers, Susan Robinson

    Drawing from journal, report, and monographic literature, this paper offers an analysis of community college funding in the 1990's. In the first section, various stories appearing in the "Chronicle of Higher Education" are highlighted, pointing to such financial problems as state deficits and shrinking educational budgets, no federal increases in…

  12. Budget Blues: The Situation May Not Be Worse than in the Early 1990S, but Public Libraries Are Definitely Hurting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oder, Norman

    2004-01-01

    Public libraries are suffering budget cuts in most states nationwide, according to an informal LJ survey, with a significant segment--though not a majority characterizing the strictures as worse than in the early 1990s, the last time libraries were hit hard. LJ contacted state library agencies and, in some-cases, state library associations, for a…

  13. The Micro Consequences of Macro-Level Social Transition: How Did Russians Survive in the 1990s?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Xuanping; Hwang, Sean-Shong

    2007-01-01

    Using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), we investigate the possible links between the Russian mortality crisis of the 1990s and social transition that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results of the analysis demonstrate that Russians' life chances and their psychological resources and well-being were…

  14. Market Forces in Higher Education--Chinese and British Experience between Mid-1980s and Mid-1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhao, Xiaonan

    2010-01-01

    This paper tries to examine how higher education in China and Britain has been affected by market forces between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s, from three major issues. Comparing the experiences of both places, the paper argues that unlike the case of British counterpart, where marketisation of education has shifted to a corporate management…

  15. Density but not climate affects the population growth rate of guanacos ( Lama guanicoe) (Artiodactyla, Camelidae)

    PubMed Central

    Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed the effects of population density and climatic variables on the rate of population growth in the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe), a wild camelid species in South America. We used a time series of 36 years (1977-2012) of population sampling in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Individuals were grouped in three age-classes: newborns, juveniles, and adults; for each year a female population transition matrix was constructed, and the population growth rate (λ) was estimated for each year as the matrix highest positive eigenvalue. We applied a regression analysis with finite population growth rate (λ) as dependent variable, and total guanaco population, sheep population, annual mean precipitation, and winter mean temperature as independent variables, with and without time lags. The effect of guanaco population size was statistically significant, but the effects of the sheep population and the climatic variables on guanaco population growth rate were not statistically significant. PMID:25187878

  16. Food shortages in sub-Saharan Africa and population growth.

    PubMed

    Munisi, S E

    1982-12-01

    Food problems faced by sub-Saharan African nations center around the widening gap between food needs and availablity. Food shortages are suggested to originate from poor distribution and as a result of natural disasters; not as a consequence of population growth. Imperialism, colonialism, and neocolonial exploitation has encouraged African economic and cultural backwardness; a situation in which high population growth can have grave consequences. Fertility control is promoted by industrialized governments as a means of solving socioeconomic problems. However, fertility control may not be justified in many African nations which experience high infant mortality and labor intensive agriculture. Although the number of people who can be fed in any circumstance is ultimately finite, Africa's situation could be improved. If presently uninhabitable land was made suitable for settlement, land shortage from overpopulation would not be problematic for a long time. Modernization of agricultural practices could have a substantial impact of food production. At present, innovations are largely associated with the production of export crops which has often necessitated food imports. Food aid for relief in emergencies or for support of regions with chronic shortages is appropriate and beneficial, however, in some cases food aid can be detrimental, e.g., by lowering food prices thus burdening small farmers. Food aid tends to create dependency, not self-sufficiency. Malnutrition and hunger are symptoms of underdevelopment. At the policy level, a food and nutrition strategy should include rural development designed to improve income redistribution, agricultural modernization, and measures to influence the production of various foods to ensure a balanced diet, and nutrition and health intervention programs for vulnerable groups. In addition to overall agricultural development, 2 general recommendations are offered: increased production of staple food stuffs and a concentrated effort to

  17. An interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variability in summer rainfall over southern China around early 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jiepeng; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Xin; He, Chao; Chen, Zesheng

    2017-01-01

    The intensity of interannual variability (IIV) in southern China (SC) summer rainfall experienced a remarkable increase in early 1990s, concurrent with the interdecadal increase in SC summer rainfall. Two factors are proposed for this interdecadal change. One is the interdecadal increase of IIV in tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) sea surface temperature (SST) after early 1990s. Anomalous warmer (cooler) TEIO SST triggers anomalous ascending (descending) motion and lower-level cyclonic (anticyclone) circulation in situ, which in turn induces anomalous descent (ascent) over SC through an anomalous meridional vertical circulation. This contributes to interannual summer rainfall variability over SC. The increase in the amplitude of TEIO SST anomalies in early 1990s led to an intensified interannual variability of summer rainfall over SC. The other is the strengthened influence of a coupled mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic triple SST anomaly on interannual variability in summer rainfall over SC after early 1990s. The leading EOF mode of the North Atlantic SST is characterized by a stripe pattern during 1979-1992, while during 1993-2008 the dominant mode of the North Atlantic SST is a triple pattern. The triple pattern of North Atlantic SST may exert positive effect on the NAO after early 1990s. Compared to the period 1979-1992, the relationship between the NAO and interannual summer rainfall over SC is enhanced during 1993-2008. The NAO coupled with North Atlantic SST triple exerts an important impact on SC summer rainfall variability through Eurasian wave-like train.

  18. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).

    In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…

  19. A Premiere example of the illusion of harm reduction cigarettes in the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Pollay, R; Dewhirst, T

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To use the product launch of Player's Premiere as a case study for understanding the new cigarette product development process during the 1990s. We determine the (in)validity of industry claims that: (1) development of the physical product preceded the promotional promise of "less irritation"; (2) "less irritation" was actually realised; (3) advertising informed consumers; and (4) advertising regulations caused the product's failure in the marketplace. Setting: Court proceedings assessing the constitutionality of Canada's Tobacco Act, which substantially restricts cigarette advertising. The 2002 Quebec Superior Court trial yielded a new collection of internal documents from Imperial Tobacco Ltd (ITL), including several about the development and marketing of Player's Premiere. Method: Trial testimony and corporate documents were reviewed to determine the validity of the industry representations about the new cigarette product development process, focusing on the case history of Player's Premiere. Results: In direct contradiction to industry testimony, the documentary evidence demonstrates that (1) communications for Player's Premiere, which claimed less irritation, were developed long before finding a product that could deliver on the promise; (2) ITL did not sell a "less irritating" product that matched its promotional promise; (3) the advertising and other communications for Player's Premiere were extensive, relying on the hi-tech appearances ("tangible credibility") of a "unique" filter, yet were uninformative and vague; and (4) Player's Premiere failed in the marketplace, despite extensive advertising and retail support, because it was an inferior product that did not live up to its promotional promise, not because of regulation of commercial speech. Conclusions: New product development entails extensive consumer research to craft all communications tools in fine detail. In the case of Player's Premiere, this crafting created a false and misleading

  20. Circulation and deep water export of the subpolar North Atlantic during the 1990's

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schott, Friedrich A.; Brandt, Peter

    Moored array observations and deep float trajectories have allowed an improved quantification of the deep subpolar circulation, in particular regarding the Deep Western Boundary Currents (DWBCs) at the exit of the subpolar gyre and the circulation of Labrador Sea Water (LSW). With the decrease of Labrador Sea deep convection during the mid 1990's, LSW salinity and temperature increased by 0.005/yr and 0.06°C/yr, respectively, over the past decade through eddy exchange with the warmer, saltier boundary current water. At the same time, water masses with upper LSW properties were generated in large quantities by shallow convection compensating the lack of classical LSW formation. Sea-level observations and model simulations have pointed to a decrease of the large-scale near-surface cyclonic subpolar gyre circulation over the past decade and we compare the associated gyre indices. The LSW-level currents at the exit of the Labrador Sea, however, show a strengthening during 1997-2005, while the DWBC east of the Grand Banks showed no significant changes from the period 1993-95 to 2005. The mean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) at the exit of the subpolar gyre has been estimated by several inverse model studies to be 16±2 Sv and the corresponding heat transport at 0.61±0.07 PW. Inverse analysis for MOC variations among five hydrographic sections taken during 1993-2000 across the North Atlantic at approximately 48°N found no detectable decadal trend nor large changes, with the estimates of the MOC intensity varying among the five realizations only from 13.8 to 16.6 Sv. Two assimilation models, ECCO and SODA-POP, are evaluated for MOC variability at the exit of the subpolar basin. Only small MOC changes are found, with no indication of a decadal "MOC slowdown", in agreement also with the observed deep boundary currents in the western outflow regime.

  1. Aerosol effects on summer monsoon over Asia during 1980s and 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, I.-Chun; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Lee, Wei-Liang

    2016-10-01

    The Community Earth System Model is used to study the aerosol climate effects during the 1980s and 1990s in which the anthropogenic SO2 emissions decreased in North America and Western Europe and increased in East and South Asia. From the 100 year simulations, aerosol forcing results in cooler (-0.13 K) and drier (-0.01 mm/day) atmosphere with less shortwave radiation flux at the surface (-0.37 W/m2). The clear-sky shortwave radiation flux decreased over East Asia (-0.81 W/m2) and South Asia (-1.09 W/m2), but increased over Western Europe (+1.16 W/m2) and North America (+0.39 W/m2), consistent with aerosol loading changes. While changes in spatial distributions of all-sky shortwave radiation and surface temperature are closely related to cloud changes, the changes in wind and precipitation do not correspond to aerosol loading changes, indicating the complexity of aerosol-cloud circulation interactions. The East and South Asia monsoons were generally weakened due mainly to southward shift of the 200 hPa East Asia Jet (EAJ) and decrease in 850 hPa winds; annual precipitation decreased by 2% in South Asia but increased by 2% in Yangtze-Huai River Valley over East Asia. The uncertainties associated with aerosol climate effects are addressed within the context of model variability and the global warming effect. For the latter, while the aerosol effects decrease the greenhouse warming on the global mean, the regional responses are different. Nevertheless, the characteristics of aerosol climate effects, including the southward 200 hPa EAJ and weakened South Asia monsoon, still persist when the climate becomes warmer, although the strength and the geographical distribution are slightly modulated.

  2. [The interrelationships among population growth, underdevelopment, and the preservation of peace].

    PubMed

    Khalatbari, P

    1986-07-01

    The interrelationships among population growth, underdevelopment, and the preservation of peace are considered. The author first argues that the dilemma of developing countries is not simply population growth but population growth in the absence of the regulating and stabilizing forces need to employ and nourish its numbers. Among the topics discussed are the global history and current trends of population growth, natural resources, demographic transitions, social change and its consequences in third world countries, malnutrition, and the growth of slums in the nuclear age. He also discusses the increased involvement of developing countries in the arms race.

  3. People of New Mexico: Size, Growth and Hispanic Population from the 1980 Census. Research Report 482.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, James D.

    New Mexico, while small, is a state of great diversity in terms of size, growth, and Hispanic concentration of population. Data from the 1980 census indicate New Mexico is the 37th largest state with slightly more than 1.3 million persons and is ninth among the states in percentage of population growth. Growth comes from two demographic sources:…

  4. Modelling the unsteady growth state population balance for a nonlinear growth model in an MSMPR crystallizer

    SciTech Connect

    Carver, C.; Chipman, N.A.; Carleson, T.E.

    1994-03-01

    The precipitation of zirconium and other metal species as hydroxides (hydrous oxides) from simulated nuclear waste process solutions has been investigated as a potential method to reduce radioactive waste volumes. The reaction of ammonium hexaflourozirconate was used to simulate these waste streams. Studies were conducted to investigate the unsteady state response of crystallization in mixed suspension, mixed product removal (MSMPR) crystallizer. Size distributions below 40 {mu}m from laboratory batch and MSMPR data indicate size-dependent growth may be occurring because they may fit the Abegg, Stevens and Larson (ASL) model. However, these distributions also may fit a transient growth model based on the Method of Lines numerical solution to the unsteady state population balance equation. The development of the Method of Lines solution as well as experimental agreement with both models were studied.

  5. Resurgence of malaria in Bombay (Mumbai) in the 1990s: a historical perspective.

    PubMed

    Kamat, V

    2000-06-01

    Bombay has achieved extraordinary success in controlling its malaria problem for nearly six decades by relying primarily on legislative measures and non-insecticidal methods of mosquito abatement. In 1992, however, malaria reemerged in Bombay with a vengeance. During 1992-1997, the city witnessed a manifold increase in the number of malaria cases diagnosed and treated by the public health system. The large number of malaria patients treated by private practitioners was not recorded by the municipal malaria surveillance system during this period. In 1995, at the peak of the resurgence, public health officials of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Bombay (MCGB) confirmed that 170 persons in the city had died due to malaria. The crisis was unprecedented in Bombay's modern public health history. In response to intense criticism from the media, the city's public health officials attributed the resurgence to the global phenomenon of mosquito-vector resistance to insecticides, and Plasmodium resistance to antimalarial chemoprophylaxis and treatment. Local scientists who investigated the problem offered no support to this explanation. So what might explain the resurgence? What factors led the problem to reach an epidemic level in a matter of two or three years? In addressing the above principal questions, this paper adopts a historical perspective and argues that in the resurgence of malaria in Bombay in the 1990s, there is an element of the 'presence of the past'. In many ways the present public health crisis in Bombay resembles the health scenario that characterized the city at the turn of the 19th century. It is possible to draw parallels between the early public health history of malaria control in Bombay, which was punctuated by events that followed the bubonic plague epidemic of 1896, and the present-day malaria epidemic punctuated by the threat of a plague epidemic in 1994. As such, the paper covers a long period, of almost 100 years. This time-depth is used to

  6. Decomposing variation in population growth into contributions from environment and phenotypes in an age-structured population.

    PubMed

    Pelletier, Fanie; Moyes, Kelly; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Coulson, Tim

    2012-01-22

    Evaluating the relative importance of ecological drivers responsible for natural population fluctuations in size is challenging. Longitudinal studies where most individuals are monitored from birth to death and where environmental conditions are known provide a valuable resource to characterize complex ecological interactions. We used a recently developed approach to decompose the observed fluctuation in population growth of the red deer population on the Isle of Rum into contributions from climate, density and their interaction and to quantify their relative importance. We also quantified the contribution of individual covariates, including phenotypic and life-history traits, to population growth. Fluctuations in composition in age and sex classes ((st)age structure) of the population contributed substantially to the population dynamics. Density, climate, birth weight and reproductive status contributed less and approximately equally to the population growth. Our results support the contention that fluctuations in the population's (st)age structure have important consequences for population dynamics and underline the importance of including information on population composition to understand the effect of human-driven changes on population performance of long-lived species.

  7. Variability of the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index across the north slope of Alaska in the 1990s

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stow, D.; Daeschner, S.; Hope, A.; Douglas, D.; Petersen, A.; Myneni, R.; Zhou, L.; Oechel, W.

    2003-01-01

    The interannual variability and trend of above-ground photosynthetic activity of Arctic tundra vegetation in the 1990s is examined for the north slope region of Alaska, based on the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (SINDVI) derived from local area coverage (LAC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. Smaller SINDVI values occurred during the three years (1992-1994) following the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo. Even after implementing corrections for this stratospheric aerosol effect and adjusting for changes in radiometric calibration coefficients, an apparent increasing trend of SINDVI in the 1990s is evident for the entire north slope. The most pronounced increase was observed for the foothills physiographical province.

  8. Reversal of the 1960s to 1990s freshening trend in the northeast North Atlantic and Nordic Seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holliday, N. Penny; Hughes, S. L.; Bacon, S.; Beszczynska-Möller, A.; Hansen, B.; Lavín, A.; Loeng, H.; Mork, K. A.; Østerhus, S.; Sherwin, T.; Walczowski, W.

    2008-02-01

    Hydrographic time series in the northeast North Atlantic and Nordic Seas show that the freshening trend of the 1960s-1990s has completely reversed in the upper ocean. Since the 1990s temperature and salinity have rapidly increased in the Atlantic Inflow from the eastern subpolar gyre to the Fram Strait. In 2003-2006 salinity values reached the previous maximum last observed around 1960, and temperature values exceeded records. The mean properties of the Atlantic Inflow decrease northwards, but variations seen in the eastern subpolar gyre at 57°N persist with the same amplitude and pattern along the pathways to Fram Strait. Time series correlations and extreme events suggest a time lag of 3-4 years over that distance. This estimate allows predictions to be made; the temperature of Atlantic water in the Fram Strait may start to decline in 2007 or 2008, salinity a year later, but both will remain high at least until 2010.

  9. Understanding Rural Population Loss.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGranahan, David A.; Beale, Calvin L.

    2002-01-01

    A quarter of nonmetro counties lost population in the 1990s, but population loss was not related to poverty rate or low educational levels, perhaps because low-skill workers can no longer expect better wages in urban areas. Population loss was related to low population density and remoteness (which decrease access to services), lack of natural…

  10. MECHANISMS OF FLUID SHEAR-INDUCED INHIBITION OF POPULATION GROWTH IN A RED-TIDE DINOFLAGELLATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Net population growth of some dinoflagellates is inhibited by fluid shear at shear stresses comparable with those generated during oceanic turbulence. Decreased net growth may occur through lowered cell division, increased mortality, or both. The dominant mechanism under various ...

  11. Concept to Reality: Contributions of the Langley Research Center to US Civil Aircraft of the 1990s

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chambers, Joseph R.

    2003-01-01

    This document is intended to be a companion to NASA SP-2000-4519, 'Partners in Freedom: Contributions of the Langley Research Center to U.S. Military Aircraft of the 1990s'. Material included in the combined set of volumes provides informative and significant examples of the impact of Langley's research on U.S. civil and military aircraft of the 1990s. This volume, 'Concept to Reality: Contributions of the NASA Langley Research Center to U.S. Civil Aircraft of the 1990s', highlights significant Langley contributions to safety, cruise performance, takeoff and landing capabilities, structural integrity, crashworthiness, flight deck technologies, pilot-vehicle interfaces, flight characteristics, stall and spin behavior, computational design methods, and other challenging technical areas for civil aviation. The contents of this volume include descriptions of some of the more important applications of Langley research to current civil fixed-wing aircraft (rotary-wing aircraft are not included), including commercial airliners, business aircraft, and small personal-owner aircraft. In addition to discussions of specific aircraft applications, the document also covers contributions of Langley research to the operation of civil aircraft, which includes operating problems. This document is organized according to disciplinary technologies, for example, aerodynamics, structures, materials, and flight systems. Within each discussion, examples are cited where industry applied Langley technologies to specific aircraft that were in operational service during the 1990s and the early years of the new millennium. This document is intended to serve as a key reference for national policy makers, internal NASA policy makers, Congressional committees, the media, and the general public. Therefore, it has been written for a broad general audience and does not presume any significant technical expertise. An extensive bibliography is provided for technical specialists and others who desire a

  12. Using Spreadsheets To Model Population Growth, Competition and Predation in Nature.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Ashley J. R.

    1999-01-01

    Describes how to place mathematical equations modeling population growth into a spreadsheet that performs calculations quickly and easily. Suggests experiments that can be performed with the spreadsheets. (WRM)

  13. Comparative Study of Population Growth and Agricultural Change: C - Case Study of India. Asian Population Studies Series No. 23.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok (Thailand).

    This report, the third in a series of five reports of the Comparative Study of Population Growth and Agricultural Change, describes a study of the two states of India (Punjaband and Orissa) which attempted to clarify the relationship between population pressure and agricultural change through a time series analysis. This study: (1) outlines trends…

  14. The effects of invertebrate herbivores on plant population growth: a meta-regression analysis.

    PubMed

    Katz, Daniel S W

    2016-09-01

    Over the last two decades, an increasing number of studies have quantified the effects of herbivory on plant populations using stage-structured population models and integral projection models, allowing for the calculation of plant population growth rates (λ) with and without herbivory. In this paper, I assembled 29 studies and conducted a meta-regression to determine the importance of invertebrate herbivores to population growth rates (λ) while accounting for missing data. I found that invertebrate herbivory often induced important reductions in plant population growth rates (with herbivory, λ was 1.08 ± 0.36; without herbivory, λ was 1.28 ± 0.58). This relationship tended to be weaker for seed predation than for other types of herbivory, except when seed predation rates were very high. Even so, the amount by which studies reduced herbivory was a poor predictor of differences in population growth rates-which strongly cautions against using measured herbivory rates as a proxy for the impact of herbivores. Herbivory reduced plant population growth rates significantly more when potential growth rates were high, which helps to explain why there was less variation in actual population growth rates than in potential population growth rates. The synthesis of these studies also shows the need for future studies to report variance in estimates of λ and to quantify how λ varies as a function of plant density.

  15. Population Growth and Demographic Structure. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Growth and Demographic Structure (Paris, France, November 16-20, 1992).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

    This volume contains the report and recommendations of the United Nations-sponsored meeting on population growth and demographic structure which was held in Paris, November 1992. Materials in the volume can serve as useful tools for future research on the relations between population, environment, and development and further the work of the United…

  16. Recent Population Growth and Change among Asian-Americans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vann, Barbara H.; Ryu, Jai P.

    Data from the 1990 Census and recent Current Population Survey reports are used to describe population change among Asian-Americans. Comparisons are made between Asian-Americans and the general non-Asian population and among Asian-Americans, focusing on four subgroups: Chinese, Filipinos, Japanese, and Koreans. Specific features examined in…

  17. Population divergence in compensatory growth responses and their costs in sticklebacks

    PubMed Central

    Ab Ghani, Nurul Izza; Merilä, Juha

    2015-01-01

    Compensatory growth (CG) may be an adaptive mechanism that helps to restore an organisms’ growth trajectory and adult size from deviations caused by early life resource limitation. Yet, few studies have investigated the genetic basis of CG potential and existence of genetically based population differentiation in CG potential. We studied population differentiation, genetic basis, and costs of CG potential in nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) differing in their normal growth patterns. As selection favors large body size in pond and small body size in marine populations, we expected CG to occur in the pond but not in the marine population. By manipulating feeding conditions (viz. high, low and recovery feeding treatments), we found clear evidence for CG in the pond but not in the marine population, as well as evidence for catch-up growth (i.e., size compensation without growth acceleration) in both populations. In the marine population, overcompensation occurred individuals from the recovery treatment grew eventually larger than those from the high feeding treatment. In both populations, the recovery feeding treatment reduced maturation probability. The recovery feeding treatment also reduced survival probability in the marine but not in the pond population. Analysis of interpopulation hybrids further suggested that both genetic and maternal effects contributed to the population differences in CG. Hence, apart from demonstrating intrinsic costs for recovery growth, both genetic and maternal effects were identified to be important modulators of CG responses. The results provide an evidence for adaptive differentiation in recovery growth potential. PMID:25628860

  18. Taking Exception. Reduced mortality leads to population growth: an inconvenient truth.

    PubMed

    Shelton, James D

    2014-05-01

    Reduced mortality has been the predominant cause of the marked global population growth over the last 3/4 of a century. While improved child survival increases motivation to reduce fertility, it comes too little and too late to forestall substantial population growth. And, beyond motivation, couples need effective means to control their fertility. It is an inconvenient truth that reducing child mortality contributes considerably to the population growth destined to compromise the quality of life of many, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Vigorous child survival programming is of course imperative. Wide access to voluntary family planning can help mitigate that growth and provide many other benefits.

  19. A Photometer for Measuring Population Growth in Yeast.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tatina, Robert; Hartley, Tamela; Thomas, Danita

    1999-01-01

    Describes the construction and use of an inexpensive, portable photometer designed specifically for estimating population sizes in yeast cultures. Suggests activities for use with the photometer. (WRM)

  20. How Population Growth and Land-Use Change Increased Fluvial Dissolved Organic Carbon Fluxes over 130 Years in the Thames Basin (UK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noacco, V.; Howden, N. J. K.; Wagener, T.; Worrall, F.; Burt, T. P.

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates drivers of changing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export in the UK's River Thames basin between 1884 and 2014. Specifically, we consider how the impacts of land-use change and population growth drive increases in DOC concentrations and fluxes at the basin outlet. Such key factors for the long-term increase in riverine DOC in temperate, mineral-soil catchments are still widely debated. First, we estimate soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the Thames basin for the period. Second, we convert SOC losses due to land-use change into DOC loss to surface waters through runoff. Finally, we combine this input of DOC with an export coefficient model that considers catchment drivers for DOC release to the river. SOC stocks for each year are calculated from a large database of typical SOC levels for land-uses present in the Thames basin and are combined with literature values of transition times for SOC to adjust to a new level following land-use change. We also account for climate change effects on SOC stock due to temperature increases, which reduces SOC stocks as soil organic matter turnover rates increase. Our work shows that the major driver for DOC increase to the river Thames was the rise in the catchment population, where the increase in urban area was used as a proxy. This highlights the role of sewage effluent in contributing to the rise of fluvial DOC, even though wastewater treatments were in place since the early 1990s. Land-use change had significant but short-term impacts in the increase in DOC, mainly due to massive conversion of permanent grassland into arable land during World War II.

  1. A macro analysis of population growth of China's ethnic groups in the 1980s.

    PubMed

    Yang, S; Liu, W

    1992-06-01

    8% of China's population is comprised of the 55 identified ethnic groups in 1990. The growth rate of this population between 1982 and 1990 was very high at 38.7/1000, or an increase of 1.43 over the previous 18 years. Natural increase was 18/1000. The total fertility rate was 2.9 in 1990. The causes for such rapid growth are reaffirmation of ethnic identity, a high fertility rate, and intermarriage with Han residents. 59% of the increased population reflected a new classification as an ethnic minority. Intermarriage with Han accounted for 4.4% of the increase. Since the revolution of 1949, there has been a release from the former oppression and population declines. In 1978, preferential policies were mandated for ethnic groups, which encouraged ethnic recognition. Ethnic status was enhanced and national awareness of ethnic groups was increased. The visual display of the ethnic age pyramid is evidence that the shape is quite different from the Han population. There are greater numbers of teenagers and those in reproductive ages. This cluster will affect population growth after the century's end. Ethnic population growth due to reaffirmation of ethnic identity also is different from natural increase in regional migration. A rise in population density within a location is not apparent. Carrying capacity of the local economy, resources, or environment is unaffected by the increase. It is inappropriate to measure the population pressure of high ethnic population growth. Eventually, ethnic growth will affect the growth rate of the national population. In ethnic areas, population growth should be planned in concert with economic development, use of resources, and protection of the ecology. Thus, ethnic area income/capita will be increased, inequality will be erased, and national autonomy achieved. The social stability and prosperity of all China is dependent on respect for happiness among ethnic minorities and economic and social development.

  2. Incoming Population: Where Will the People Live? Coping with Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Siegler, Theodore R.

    The guide describes an assessment procedure that can be used by sparsely populated communities located near a potential development to help predict where the incoming population will choose to live and shop. First, a numerical model, the "gravity model," is presented which utilizes community size and the distance from the community to…

  3. Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities. Sao Paulo.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

    This document is one in a series of studies that focus on the population policies and plans of a number of mega-cities in developing countries. The object of the series is to examine the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of the population policies of mega-cities from a broad perspective, emphasizing the reciprocal links between…

  4. Practical application of the Bristol Perinatal Growth Chart to Mediterranean populations.

    PubMed

    Pecorari, D; Costa, L; Barbone, F

    1985-01-01

    The Bristol Perinatal Growth Chart (gestogram) has been applied to different Mediterranean populations and compared to traditional percentile intrauterine growth charts. The opinion is stressed that the gestogram system can successfully replace traditional intrauterine growth charts and offers the advantage of greater simplicity and adaptability.

  5. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    PubMed

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

  6. Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

    PubMed Central

    Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  7. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    PubMed

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

  8. Is globalization undermining the welfare state? The evolution of the welfare state in developed capitalist countries during the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Navarro, Vicente; Schmitt, John; Astudillo, Javier

    2004-01-01

    The authors analyze the evolution of macro-indicators of social and economic well-being during the 1990s in the majority of developed capitalist countries, grouped according to their dominant political traditions since the end of World War II. Their analysis shows that, despite the economic globalization of commerce and finance, "politics still matters" in explaining the evolution of the welfare states and labor markets in these countries; the impact of the globalization of financial capital in forcing reductions in the financial resources available for welfare state purposes has been exaggerated.

  9. Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Chen, Wei; Liu, Xiaodong; Lu, Riyu; Sun, Ying

    2016-09-01

    This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature (SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface warming, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), annual hottest day temperature (TXx), and annual warmest night temperature (TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR). Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964-93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA (through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply

  10. Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

    PubMed

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

  11. [Establishing legal system completely and controlling the excessive population growth].

    PubMed

    Zou, P

    1988-05-01

    China during the early years of Socialism concentrated on economic development. Population problems were given a low priority. But now, at this point in China's history, it is necessary to maintain the stability and uniformity of the birth policy through legislation, alter attitudes toward childbearing through legal education, and protect through laws the enthusiastic nature of family planning work of cadres. Without legislation, family planning work cannot endure. It is the proper time to promulgate "Family Planning Law", the body of laws written by the State Council after 5 years of research in family planning work. Critics of this view feel that conditions in rural areas are not ripe for such a law, or that because China is large and populous, laws are not the proper method for controlling population, or that legal restrictions would bring unforeseen consequences in the future. But China's population problem is immediate and dire, and conditions are indeed ripe for passing this law.

  12. Population size, survival, growth, and movements of Rana sierrae

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A. W.; Halstead, Brian J.; Link, William

    2013-01-01

    Based on 2431 captures of 757 individual frogs over a 9-yr period, we found that the population of R. sierrae in one meadow–stream complex in Yosemite National Park ranged from an estimated 45 to 115 adult frogs. Rana sierrae at our relatively low elevation site (2200 m) grew at a fast rate (K = 0.73–0.78), had high overwintering survival rates (44.6–95%), lived a long time (up to 16 yr), and tended to be fairly sedentary during the summer (100% minimum convex polygon annual home ranges of 139 m2) but had low year-to-year site fidelity. Even though the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has been present in the population for at least 13 yr, there was no clear downward trend as might be expected from reports of R. sierrae population declines associated with Bd or from reports of widespread population decline of R. sierrae throughout its range.

  13. Assessing the anticipated growth response of northern conifer populations to a warming climate.

    PubMed

    Pedlar, John H; McKenney, Daniel W

    2017-03-07

    The growth response of trees to ongoing climate change has important implications for future forest dynamics, accurate carbon accounting, and sustainable forest management. We used data from black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) provenance trials, along with published data for three other northern conifers, to identify a consistent growth response to climate warming in which cold-origin populations are expected to benefit and warm-origin populations are expected to decline. Specifically, populations from across the geographic range of a species appear to grow well at temperatures characteristic of the southern portion of the range, indicating significant potential for a positive growth response to climate warming in cold-origin populations. Few studies have quantified and compared this pattern across multiple species using provenance data. We present a forest regeneration strategy that incorporates these anticipated growth responses to promote populations that are both local to the planting site and expected to grow well under climate change.

  14. Assessing the anticipated growth response of northern conifer populations to a warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedlar, John H.; McKenney, Daniel W.

    2017-03-01

    The growth response of trees to ongoing climate change has important implications for future forest dynamics, accurate carbon accounting, and sustainable forest management. We used data from black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) provenance trials, along with published data for three other northern conifers, to identify a consistent growth response to climate warming in which cold-origin populations are expected to benefit and warm-origin populations are expected to decline. Specifically, populations from across the geographic range of a species appear to grow well at temperatures characteristic of the southern portion of the range, indicating significant potential for a positive growth response to climate warming in cold-origin populations. Few studies have quantified and compared this pattern across multiple species using provenance data. We present a forest regeneration strategy that incorporates these anticipated growth responses to promote populations that are both local to the planting site and expected to grow well under climate change.

  15. Population growth and economic development in the very long run: a simulation model of three revolutions.

    PubMed

    Steinmann, G; Komlos, J

    1988-08-01

    The authors propose an economic model capable of simulating the 4 main historical stages of civilization: hunting, agricultural, industrial, and postindustrial. An output-maximizing society to respond to changes in factor endowments by switching technologies. Changes in factor proportions arise through population growth and capital accumulation. A slow rate of exogenous technical process is assumed. The model synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the effect of population growth on per capita output. Initially the capital-diluting effect of population growth dominates. As population density increases, however, and a threshold is reached, the Boserupian effect becomes crucial, and a technological revolution occurs. The cycle is thereafter repeated. After the second economic revolution, however, the Malthusian constraint dissolves permanently, as population growth can continue without being constrained by diminishing returns to labor. By synthesizing Malthusian and Boserupian notions, the model is able to capture the salient features of economic development in the very long run.

  16. Assessing the anticipated growth response of northern conifer populations to a warming climate

    PubMed Central

    Pedlar, John H.; McKenney, Daniel W.

    2017-01-01

    The growth response of trees to ongoing climate change has important implications for future forest dynamics, accurate carbon accounting, and sustainable forest management. We used data from black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) provenance trials, along with published data for three other northern conifers, to identify a consistent growth response to climate warming in which cold-origin populations are expected to benefit and warm-origin populations are expected to decline. Specifically, populations from across the geographic range of a species appear to grow well at temperatures characteristic of the southern portion of the range, indicating significant potential for a positive growth response to climate warming in cold-origin populations. Few studies have quantified and compared this pattern across multiple species using provenance data. We present a forest regeneration strategy that incorporates these anticipated growth responses to promote populations that are both local to the planting site and expected to grow well under climate change. PMID:28266577

  17. What's behind the Good News: The Decline in Teen Pregnancy Rates during the 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flanigan, Christine

    Noting that rates of teen pregnancies and births have declined over the past decade, this analysis examined how much of the progress is due to fewer teens having sex and how much to lower rates of pregnancy among sexually active teens. The analysis drew on data from the federal government's National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), a large,…

  18. Is Welfare Reform Responsible for Low Skilled Women's Declining Health Insurance Coverage in the 1990s?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeLeire, Thomas; Levine, Judith A.; Levy, Helen

    2006-01-01

    We use data from the 1989-2001 March Supplements to the Current Population Survey to determine whether welfare reform contributed to declines in health insurance coverage experienced by low-skilled women. Between 1988 and 2000, women with less than a high school education experienced an 8.0 percentage point decline in the probability of having…

  19. Reconstructing the dynamics of ancient human populations from radiocarbon dates: 10 000 years of population growth in Australia.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Christopher N; Brook, Barry W

    2011-12-22

    Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene.

  20. Seed dispersal by pulp consumers, not "legitimate" seed dispersers, increases Guettarda viburnoides population growth.

    PubMed

    Loayza, Andrea P; Knight, Tiffany

    2010-09-01

    We examined the effect of seed dispersal by Purplish Jays (Cyanocorax cyanomelas; pulp consumers) and the Chestnut-eared Araçari (Pteroglossus castanotis; "legitimate" seed dispersers) on population growth of the small tree Guettarda viburnoides (Rubiaceae) in northeastern Bolivian savannas. Because each bird species differs with respect to feeding and post-feeding behavior, we hypothesized that seed dispersal by each species will contribute differently to the rate of increase of G. viburnoides, but that seed dispersal by either species will increase population growth when compared to a scenario with no seed dispersal. To examine the effects of individual dispersers on the future population size of G. viburnoides, we projected population growth rate using demographic models for G. viburnoides that explicitly incorporate data on quantitative and qualitative aspects of seed dispersal by each frugivore species. Our model suggests that seed dispersal by C. cyanomelas leads to positive population growth of G. viburnoides, whereas seed dispersal by P. castanotis has a detrimental effect on the population growth of this species. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report negative effects of a "legitimate" seed disperser on the population dynamics of the plant it consumes. Our results stress the importance of incorporating frugivore effects into population projection matrices, to allow a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of different dispersers for plant population dynamics.

  1. Population growth through history and the escape from the Malthusian trap: a homeostatic simulation model.

    PubMed

    Artzrouni, M; Komlos, J

    1985-01-01

    "A Malthusian simulation model is proposed to describe the growth of human population from the Neolithic through the Industrial Revolution. The economy is composed of a subsistence sector and a capital-producing sector. Our model captures the 'incessant contest' between population growth and the means of subsistence. When the per capita agricultural output falls below a biological minimum, the growth rate of the population is subject, in a random fashion, to perturbations that can take on disastrous proportions." It is suggested that "the slow accumulation of capital (and the buildup of the population of the capital-producing sector) eventually enables the population to overcome the constraints of the hostile economic environment. Our simulations (complete with confidence intervals) yield numerically realistic estimates of the population that eventually escapes from the Malthusian menace and grows unhindered during the Industrial Revolution." (summary in FRE, ITA)

  2. Dynamic-analogue correction of the decadal change of East Asian summer precipitation in the late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Zhiqiang; Li, Shangfeng; Hu, Po; Shen, Baizhu; Feng, Guolin

    2016-06-01

    This paper systematically evaluates the deviations that appear in the hindcasts of the East Asian summer precipitation (EASP) decadal change in the late 1990s in two global coupled models (BCC_CGCM and BCC_CSM). The possible causes for the deviations between the model hindcasts and observations are analyzed. The results show that the hindcasts of EASP by BCC_CGCM and BCC_CSM deviate from observations, with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) being -0.01 and -0.09 for the two models, respectively. The SST anomalies in North and West Pacific and the SST index values predicted by the two models also deviate from the observations, indicating that inconsistent SST fields may be the key factor leading to the deviation in the prediction of the EASP decadal shift. Thus, a dynamic-analogue scheme is proposed to correct the precipitation hindcasts by using SSTs, where SST and EASP are highly correlated, to select historical analogue cases. Cross validations show that the average ACC of the temporal-latitude distribution of the EASP between the corrected hindcasts and observations is 0.18 for BCC_CGCM and 0.02 for BCC_CSM; both are much higher than the uncorrected hindcasts. Applying the dynamic-analogue correction scheme in both models successfully improves prediction of the EASP decadal change in the late 1990s.

  3. Marketing: a survival tool for dietetic professionals in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Parks, S C; Moody, D L

    1986-01-01

    There is little question among members of the profession that practitioners are faced with crucial survival issues in this decade and the next. Approaching a maturing profession with static strategies will limit the profession's future growth. Consumers want to make decisions for themselves and to be provided with options. That phenomenon could change the very fabric of "professionalism" and, in turn, if dietetic professionals fail to change their strategies, could result in an advantage for nutrition competitors vs. those professionals. Dietitians as a whole must look to such disciplines as economics, the social sciences, and marketing for answers to their survival problems. Dietitians must encourage growth and innovation in order to sustain the demand for professional services. In that endeavor, the authors argue that marketing is clearly an essential tool needed to enhance the profession and to work within the dynamics of the marketplace.

  4. Secular trends and geographical variations in the dietary intake of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) using archived samples from the early 1980s and mid 1990s in Japan.

    PubMed

    Wada, Yasuhiko; Koizumi, Akio; Yoshinaga, Takeo; Harada, Kouji; Inoue, Kayoko; Morikawa, Akiko; Muroi, Junko; Inoue, Sumiko; Eslami, Bita; Hirosawa, Iwao; Hirosawa, Akitsu; Fujii, Shigeo; Fujimine, Yoshinori; Hachiya, Noriyuki; Koda, Shigeki; Kusaka, Yukinori; Murata, Katsuyuki; Nakatsuka, Haruo; Omae, Kazuyuki; Saito, Norimitsu; Shimbo, Shinichiro; Takenaka, Katsunobu; Takeshita, Tatsuya; Todoriki, Hidemi; Watanabe, Takao; Ikeda, Masayuki

    2005-05-01

    A retrospective exposure assessment among the general population for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) was conducted using dietary surveys. We analyzed samples of food duplicate portions collected in the early 1980s (1980 survey: N=40) and the mid 1990s (1995 survey: N=39) from female subjects (5 participants from each of 8 sites per survey except for one site) living throughout Japan, from the north (Hokkaido) to the south (Okinawa). The study populations in the 1980 and 1995 surveys were different, but lived in the same communities. We measured four PBDE congeners [2,2',4,4'-tetrabrominated diphenyl ether (tetraBDE): #47; 2,2',4,4',5-pentaBDE: #99; 2,2',4,4',6-pentaBDE: #100; and 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexaBDE: #153] in the diet. #99 was the most abundant congener in the diet (49% of the total PBDEs), followed by #47 (33%), #100 (12%) and #153 (6%). Regional variations found in the 1980 survey decreased in the 1995 survey. The total daily intake of PBDEs (ng/d) [GM (GSD)] in the 1980 survey [91.4 (4.1)] was not significantly different from that in the 1995 survey [93.8 (3.4)] for the total population, nor did it differ among the sites including Shimane, in which a 20-fold increase in serum concentrations was observed in the same population1). In consideration of the significant increases in the serum concentration, inhalation may be more important than food ingestion as the route of human exposure to PBDEs.

  5. H-II - A new launch vehicle in the 1990's

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godai, T.

    1985-10-01

    The H-II rocket is being planned by NASDA to carry a two-ton satellite into GEO. This paper summarizes the requirements, current status of design and tests, development program, and growth potential of the H-II. Also included are discussions of the mission, the configuration tradeoff study, system and subsystem descriptions, trajectory and performance analysis, test and launching facilities, and the development schedule.

  6. Mating behavior, population growth, and the operational sex ratio: a periodic two-sex model approach.

    PubMed

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2010-06-01

    We present a new approach to modeling two-sex populations, using periodic, nonlinear two-sex matrix models. The models project the population growth rate, the population structure, and any ratio of interest (e.g., operational sex ratio). The periodic formulation permits inclusion of highly seasonal behavioral events. A periodic product of the seasonal matrices describes annual population dynamics. The model is nonlinear because mating probability depends on the structure of the population. To study how the vital rates influence population growth rate, population structure, and operational sex ratio, we used sensitivity analysis of frequency-dependent nonlinear models. In nonlinear two-sex models the vital rates affect growth rate directly and also indirectly through effects on the population structure. The indirect effects can sometimes overwhelm the direct effects and are revealed only by nonlinear analysis. We find that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to female survival is negative for the emperor penguin, a species with highly seasonal breeding behavior. This result could not occur in linear models because changes in population structure have no effect on per capita reproduction. Our approach is applicable to ecological and evolutionary studies of any species in which males and females interact in a seasonal environment.

  7. Growth of India's scheduled caste population, 1971-81: a spatial analysis.

    PubMed

    Gosal, R P

    1990-01-01

    The author analyzes the spatial distribution and the rapid growth rate of India's scheduled caste population since 1971 and finds that "there are wide regional disparities in their rates of population growth. Areas with relatively high growth rates are associated with (i) accelerated process of urbanisation and industrialisation, (ii) expansion in mining activity, and (iii) intensification and commercialisation of agricultural development based on irrigation. By contrast, areas experiencing low rates of growth are associated with (i) continuing high mortality rate, and (ii) net out-migration arising from scarcity of resources, acute poverty and subjection to deprivations...."

  8. A comparison of the macrophyte cover and macroinvertebrate fauna at three sites on the River Kennet in the mid 1970s and late 1990s.

    PubMed

    Wright, J F; Gunn, R J M; Winder, J M; Wiggers, R; Vowles, K; Clarke, R T; Harris, I

    2002-01-23

    In 1974-1976, baseline studies were carried out on the flora and macroinvertebrate fauna of the R. Kennet at two sites downstream of Marlborough (Savernake Upper and Lower) and at one site upstream of Hungerford (Littlecote). Simplified maps of each site, showing the cover of macrophytes, were obtained monthly between April 1974 and April/June 1976, and replicated quantitative samples of the macroinvertebrates were collected on the dominant macrophyte and on gravel in June 1974, and also in June and December 1975. As a consequence of two major droughts and increasing concern over water quality in the Upper Kennet in the 1990s, the studies recommenced in the summer of 1997 using the same sites and methodologies. Maps and macroinvertebrate samples were obtained in early July and December 1997 and in June of both 1998 and 1999. At the Savernake sites, mapping in summer 1997 confirmed what had been apparent for some years. That is, macrophyte cover (both Ranunculus and Schoenoplectus) was much lower than in the 1970s. In contrast, the site downstream at Littlecote retained a relatively high cover of Ranunculus, despite the drought. In late autumn 1997, phosphate stripping commenced at Marlborough Sewage Treatment Works, the drought ended and in addition, the spring of 1998 was unusually wet. Ranunculus recolonised both Savernake sites with remarkable speed by summer 1998 and retained this dominant position in 1999. Quantitative samples of macroinvertebrates collected on gravel and the dominant macrophyte at each of the three study sites indicated that there was no evidence of major loss of family richness between the 1970s and 1990s as a result of the low flows or enrichment. However, at Savernake (but not Littlecote) in summer 1997, the macroinvertebrate assemblage was affected by low flows and/or enrichment. This took the form of changes in the abundance of some families, with lentic forms being favoured in relation to some lotic families. Following the end of the

  9. Quantitative Modeling of Growth and Dispersal in Population Models.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-01-01

    partial differential equations. Applications to dispersal and nonlinear growth/predation models arc dnsity- depresented . Computational iresults using...depend only on size x. The ideas we present here can be readily modified to treat theoretically and computationally the more general case where g and m

  10. Student-Teacher Population Growth Model. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zabrowski, Edward K.; And Others

    This mathematical model of the educational system calculates information on population groups by sex, race, age, and educational level. The model can be used to answer questions about what would happen to the flows of students and teachers through the formal educational system if these flows are changed at various stages. The report discusses the…

  11. The Revival of Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beale, Calvin L.

    Population grew faster in nonmetro than in metro countries of the United States between 1970 and 1973. This trend reverses the previous pattern of inmigration to cities. Among the reasons for increases in rural areas and small towns are: (1) decentralization of manufacturing and other industry; (2) increased settlement of retired people; (3)…

  12. Calculating the Financial Impact of Population Growth on Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cline, Daniel H.

    It is particularly difficult to make accurate enrollment projections for areas that are experiencing a rapid expansion in their population. The traditional method of calculating cohort survival ratios must be modified and supplemented with additional information to ensure accuracy; cost projection methods require detailed analyses of current costs…

  13. Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms.

    PubMed Central

    Hudson, Peter J; Dobson, Andy P; Cattadori, Isabella M; Newborn, David; Haydon, Dan T; Shaw, Darren J; Benton, Tim G; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2002-01-01

    While the concept of population growth rate has been of central importance in the development of the theory of population dynamics, few empirical studies consider the intrinsic growth rate in detail, let alone how it may vary within and between populations of the same species. In an attempt to link theory with data we take two approaches. First, we address the question 'what growth rate patterns does theory predict we should see in time-series?' The models make a number of predictions, which in general are supported by a comparative study between time-series of harvesting data from 352 red grouse populations. Variations in growth rate between grouse populations were associated with factors that reflected the quality and availability of the main food plant of the grouse. However, while these results support predictions from theory, they provide no clear insight into the mechanisms influencing reductions in population growth rate and regulation. In the second part of the paper, we consider the results of experiments, first at the individual level and then at the population level, to identify the important mechanisms influencing changes in individual productivity and population growth rate. The parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis is found to have an important influence on productivity, and when incorporated into models with their patterns of distribution between individuals has a destabilizing effect and generates negative growth rates. The hypothesis that negative growth rates at the population level were caused by parasites was demonstrated by a replicated population level experiment. With a sound and tested model framework we then explore the interaction with other natural enemies and show that in general they tend to stabilize variations in growth rate. Interestingly, the models show selective predators that remove heavily infected individuals can release the grouse from parasite-induced regulation and allow equilibrium populations to rise. By contrast, a

  14. Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader

    PubMed Central

    Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Methods Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. Key Results It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (QST) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F′ST), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. Conclusions The study suggests that although genetic

  15. Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon.

    PubMed

    Troyer, Elizabeth M; Cameron Devitt, Susan E; Sunquist, Melvin E; Goswami, Varun R; Oli, Madan K

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models.

  16. The changing face of the Australian population: growth in centenarians.

    PubMed

    Richmond, Robyn L

    2008-06-16

    At the time of the 2006 Census, there were 3154 centenarians in Australia, 797 men (25%) and 2357 women (75%). This number is expected to increase to 12,000 by 2020. In Australia we are experiencing a demographic transition in which the proportions of people in the oldest age groups are increasing while the proportions in the youngest age groups are decreasing. Centenarians are the fastest growing age segment of the Australian population. Their numbers have increased by 8.5% per year over the past 25 years. In 2006, they represented 0.12% (3154/2,644,469) of the population aged 65 years and over. More than half of centenarians live in private dwellings, with 27% of men and 14% of women living on their own. Government policies are starting to address the issues of an ageing population, including provisions for financial support, improved access to medical services, and appropriate housing and transport facilities. However, we need specific social, medical and financial estimates of the impact of living to 100 years and beyond.

  17. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len

    2017-03-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor

  18. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len

    2016-05-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor

  19. Emerging opportunities for physician-attorneys in the purchaser-driven health care industry of the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Couch, J B

    1989-01-01

    The litigation explosion of the past decade-and-a-half has provided physician-attorneys with a seemingly endless source of opportunities for full- and part-time employment. For this and other reasons, physician-attorneys in the late 1980s still devote a substantial part of their professional time to activities directly or indirectly related to medical litigation. Nevertheless, the winds of change are blowing and soon will reach hurricane force. The excesses of the medical and legal systems (best exemplified by the litigation explosion) have sown the seeds of their own ultimate destruction during the 1990s. As a result of the substantial provider glut, the purchasers of health care are now in charge. To the extent that purchasers determine that professional liability premiums, legal costs, and defensive medical practices increase their health benefit costs, they will redesign benefit programs to provide appropriate financial incentives to channel subscribers to both the high quality, cost-effective providers and alternative medical dispute resolution options other than litigation. As the percentage of lawyers' and law firms' revenues attributable to medical litigation diminishes, one of the first expenses to be cut will be that previously allocable to physician-attorneys for expert medicolegal review and case evaluation. Medical care value purchasing is rapidly becoming the centerpiece of the emerging purchaser-driven health care industry of the 1990s. This should give way to an unprecedented demand by purchasers and providers alike for medical care evaluation, health data analysis, and the implementation of systems to measure and monitor the quality and cost-effectiveness of health care delivery. Providers, especially physician-leaders, can and should play critically important roles in helping purchasers and themselves to evaluate and improve the overall quality and cost-effectiveness of health care services. It is this increasingly important area of expert

  20. Moclobemide safety: monitoring a newly developed product in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Hilton, S; Jaber, B; Ruch, R

    1995-08-01

    Moclobemide is a reversible and selective inhibitor of monoamine oxidase subtype A with a wide spectrum of antidepressant activity. To fully evaluate product safety, Roche Drug Safety has collected data on adverse events (AEs), regardless of causality, from all sources worldwide through the product development phase and after launch. This effort has included analyses of reports from clinical trials, regulatory authorities, the literature, observational studies, and the marketplace. Roche Drug Safety has also carefully examined all cases where moclobemide was taken in overdose, whether with or without other substances. This article presents the safety profile of the product after 3 years on world markets. In clinical trials, moclobemide appeared only slightly less well tolerated than placebo. In comparative trials, moclobemide was largely devoid of the anticholinergic effects associated with tricyclic antidepressants. To the end of June 1993, with an estimated 780,000 subjects exposed, AEs had been reported by less than 0.2% of users. The most frequently reported AEs were psychiatric, neurologic, and gastrointestinal disorders. Hepatobiliary AEs were rare, suggesting that moclobemide is largely devoid of hepatotoxic potential. Cardiovascular AEs reflected the prevalence of cardiovascular disease in the population treated. This safety profile is largely unchanged from those observed at 1 and 2 years postlaunch, when the estimated exposed populations were 168,000 and 328,000, respectively. It is of great significance that the fatal toxicity index of moclobemide is zero. A review of single-drug intoxications with moclobemide at doses of up to 20.55 g revealed no deaths due solely to moclobemide overdose. All patients recovered fully within 1 to 7 days without residual hepatic or cardiovascular toxicity.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  1. Modeling tradeoffs in avian life history traits and consequences for population growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.E.; Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    Variation in population dynamics is inherently related to life history characteristics of species, which vary markedly even within phylogenetic groups such as passerine birds. We computed the finite rate of population change (??) from a matrix projection model and from mark-recapture observations for 23 bird species breeding in northern Arizona. We used sensitivity analyses and a simulation model to separate contributions of different life history traits to population growth rate. In particular we focused on contrasting effects of components of reproduction (nest success, clutch size, number of clutches, and juvenile survival) versus adult survival on ??. We explored how changes in nest success or adult survival coupled to costs in other life history parameters affected ?? over a life history gradient provided by our 23 Arizona species, as well as a broader sample of 121 North American passerine species. We further examined these effects for more than 200 passeriform and piciform populations breeding across North America. Model simulations indicate nest success and juvenile survival exert the largest effects on population growth in species with moderate to high reproductive output, whereas adult survival contributed more to population growth in long-lived species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring breeding success in populations across a broad geographic area provides an important index for identifying neotropical migratory populations at risk of serious population declines and a potential method for identifying large-scale mechanisms regulating population dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. [Age structure and growth pattern of Polytrichum juniperum populations in a mire of Changbai Mountains].

    PubMed

    Bu, Zhaojun; Yan, Yunfei; Dai, Dan; Wang, Xianwei

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the age structure and growth pattern of two Polytrichum juniperum populations with and without sporophytes in Hani mire of Changbai Mountains were studied by 'innate annual marker' method. The ramets of both populations were composed of 6 age classes, and their quantity and biomass showed a declining age structure, which was more obvious in the sporophyte produced population. No significant difference of biomass was found (P > 0.05) between the two populations. The dry material accumulation of the ramets in both populations increased with aging, and showed similar patterns of linear function. The ramets mean height of sporophyte-produced population was 6.17% shorter (P < 0.05) than the another, because sporophyte production limited the height growth. The ramets mean height also increased with aging, and showed similar patterns of linear function. In non-sporophyte produced population, the variation coefficient of ramets height was only 2.44%, which indicated the significance of similar height for ramets survival. In sporophyte produced population, the variation coefficient of ramets height was 25.07%, while that of ramets biomass was 8.25%, suggesting the significance of similar biomass to the reproduction of population. The biomass of ramets had a significantly positive correlation with height in both populations (P < 0.001), and no allometric growth was showed.

  3. Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) predates human agricultural activity

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat modification, exert a significant effect on native species. Although many species have suffered population declines, increased population fragmentation, or even extinction in connection with these human impacts, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether population growth in an insectivorous bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) can be attributed to the widespread expansion of agriculture in North America following European settlement. Colonies of T. b. mexicana are extremely large (~106 individuals) and, in the modern era, major agricultural insect pests form an important component of their food resource. It is thus hypothesized that the growth of these insectivorous bat populations was coupled to the expansion of agricultural land use in North America over the last few centuries. Results We sequenced one haploid and one autosomal locus to determine the rate and time of onset of population growth in T. b. mexicana. Using an approximate Maximum Likelihood method, we have determined that T. b. mexicana populations began to grow ~220 kya from a relatively small ancestral effective population size before reaching the large effective population size observed today. Conclusions Our analyses reject the hypothesis that T. b. mexicana populations grew in connection with the expansion of human agriculture in North America, and instead suggest that this growth commenced long before the arrival of humans. As T. brasiliensis is a subtropical species, we hypothesize that the observed signals of population growth may instead reflect range expansions of ancestral bat populations from southern glacial refugia during the tail end of the Pleistocene. PMID:21457563

  4. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    PubMed

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  5. The growth of XXX females: population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Ratcliffe, S G; Pan, H; McKie, M

    1994-01-01

    Longitudinal measurements of height, sitting height and leg length are compared between 11 XXX girls identified by cytogenetic screening, and 16 chromosomally normal controls from the same population using a nonparametric method. While height velocity did not differ between the two groups either during the pubertal or the mid-childhood spurts, leg length velocity was significantly increased during the mid-childhood spurt, between 4 and 9 years of age. A further contribution to the increased leg length came from the slower decline in leg length velocity at the end of the pubertal spurt. The possible mechanisms involved in these changes are discussed.

  6. Inverse problem for the Verhulst equation of limited population growth with discrete experiment data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azimov, Anvar; Kasenov, Syrym; Nurseitov, Daniyar; Serovajsky, Simon

    2016-08-01

    Verhulst limited growth model with unknown parameters of growth is considered. These parameters are defined by discrete experiment data. This inverse problem is solved with using gradient method with interpolation of data and without it. Approximation of the delta-function is used for the latter case. As an example the bacteria population E.coli is considered.

  7. Rural Renaissance in America? The Revival of Population Growth in Remote Areas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, Peter A.; Wheeler, Judith P.

    Presenting narrative and tabular documentation of the revival of population growth in remote, rural areas and the decline of growth in urban areas, this bulletin describes the characteristics of these shifts, considers their possible causes, and suggests some of the problems and potential benefits. Specifically, this report presents the following:…

  8. Population Change: Do You Know the Trends in Your Community? Coping with Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Butler, Lorna Michael

    To help government agency representatives and community leaders understand local population trends, particularly in rapid growth situations, this publication outlines a simple framework for analyzing population changes and provides useful criteria that can be applied when considering management and policy alternatives. It is noted that two…

  9. Active population growth and immigration hypotheses in Western Europe.

    PubMed

    Feld, S

    2000-03-01

    The paper examines, in respect of 12 Western European countries over a period of 20 years, the widely held view that any decline in their working population should be offset by greater reliance on immigrant labor. This research, based on demographic projections and forecasts regarding labor market participation rates by age and sex for each of the countries concerned, focuses on the two most likely scenarios. It appears that only Italy will be faced with a fall in its working population. All other western countries will either maintain the same level or, more generally, see their workforce grow substantially. Accordingly, the authors may safely assert that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labor will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary. The second part analyses changes in the structure of the demand for labor. The authors deal chiefly with the phenomenon of the concentration of foreign manpower in each sector, its flexibility and mobility in a context of unemployment, as well as the impact of new technologies and globalization on the main determinants of international migration of labor.

  10. The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

    PubMed

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

  11. Environmental monitoring report for commercial low-level radioactive waste disposal sites (1960`s through 1990`s)

    SciTech Connect

    1996-11-01

    During the time period covered in this report (1960`s through early 1990`s), six commercial low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facilities have been operated in the US. This report provides environmental monitoring data collected at each site. The report summarizes: (1) each site`s general design, (2) each site`s inventory, (3) the environmental monitoring program for each site and the data obtained as the program has evolved, and (4) what the program has indicated about releases to off-site areas, if any, including a statement of the actual health and safety significance of any release. A summary with conclusions is provided at the end of each site`s chapter. The six commercial LLRW disposal sites discussed are located near: Sheffield, Illinois; Maxey Flats, Kentucky; Beatty, Nevada; West Valley, New York; Barnwell, South Carolina; Richland, Washington.

  12. CEO expectation: the Star Wars materiel manager of the 1990s, or C-3PO as role model.

    PubMed

    Zenty, T F; Olson, M R

    1993-05-01

    Materiel-intensive expenditures account for a significant portion of all hospital costs, second only to salaries and wages, yet materiel managers may often be overlooked as key members of the management team. This is alarming since the potential exists for materiel managers to impact annual savings of hundreds of thousands of dollars by operating efficient departments. Materiel managers have a tremendous opportunity to enhance their image and improve hospital productivity in the coming decade. The challenges of the 1990s will stretch materiel managers' skills toward enhancing their professionalism and achieving the expectations of themselves and top management. If materiel managers will effectively utilize (C3)PO they will increase their educational levels, continue to learn new skills, maintain a customer-oriented management style, exercise creativity, develop and adhere to standards, and be proactive in their responsibilities. The benefits of their success will be felt by patients, hospitals, the industry, and materiel managers everywhere.

  13. Expectations and beliefs in science communication: Learning from three European gene therapy discussions of the early 1990s.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Gitte

    2016-04-01

    There is widespread agreement that the potential of gene therapy was oversold in the early 1990s. This study, however, comparing written material from the British, Danish and German gene therapy discourses of the period finds significant differences: Over-optimism was not equally strong everywhere; gene therapy was not universally hyped. Against that background, attention is directed towards another area of variation in the material: different basic assumptions about science and scientists. Exploring such culturally rooted assumptions and beliefs and their possible significance to science communication practices, it is argued that deep beliefs may constitute drivers of hype that are particularly difficult to deal with. To participants in science communication, the discouragement of hype, viewed as a practical-ethical challenge, can be seen as a learning exercise that includes critical attention to internalised beliefs.

  14. Stereotypes of the elderly in U.S. television commercials from the 1950s to the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Miller, Darryl W; Leyell, Teresita S; Mazachek, Juliann

    2004-01-01

    Critics have charged that American advertisers have often portrayed the elderly with negative stereotypes. These negative portrayals, they suggest, not only offend elderly consumers but also contribute to ageism. This study examined whether American advertisers have indeed used a great deal of negative stereotyping of the elderly, as the critics have suggested. Employing a concept of stereotypes found in cognitive psychology, the authors examined trends in the portrayal of the elderly in television commercials produced in the United States from the 1950s through the 1990s. Results of the study do not support the contentions of the critics. Very little negative stereotyping was discovered. Analysis indicated trends in the appearance of several positive stereotypes, and differences in the stereotyping of gender groups and age segments within the elderly group. Results are interpreted from both marketing and social science perspectives.

  15. Biopharmaceutical Innovation System in China: System Evolution and Policy Transitions (Pre-1990s-2010s)

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Hao; Chung, Chao-Chen

    2015-01-01

    Background: This article sets up the initial discussion of the evolution of biopharmaceutical innovation in China through the perspective of sectoral innovation system (SIS). Methods: Two data sources including archival documentary data and field interviews were used in this study. Archival documentary data was collected from China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). In addition, industrial practitioners and leading researchers in academia were interviewed. Results: Biopharmaceutical in China was established through international knowledge transfer. The firms played more active role in commercializing biopharmaceutical in China though universities and research institutes were starting to interact with local firms and make contribution to biopharmaceutical industrialization. The transition of the Chinese government’s policies continuously shapes the evolution of biopharmaceutical sector. Policies have been dramatic changes before and after 1980s to encourage developing biopharmaceutical as a competitive industry for China. Conclusion: A SIS for biopharmaceutical has been shaped in China. However, currently biopharmaceutical is still a small sector in China, and for the further growth of the industry more synthetic policies should be implemented. Not only the policy supports towards the research and innovation of biopharmaceuticals in the early stage of development should be attended, but also commercialization of biopharmaceutical products in the later stage of sales. PMID:26673466

  16. Disparities in child health in the Arab region during the 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Khawaja, Marwan; Dawns, Jesse; Meyerson-Knox, Sonya; Yamout, Rouham

    2008-01-01

    Background While Arab countries showed an impressive decline in child mortality rates during the past few decades, gaps in mortality by gender and socioeconomic status persisted. However, large socioeconomic disparities in child health were evident in almost every country in the region. Methods Using available tabulations and reliable micro data from national household surveys, data for 18 Arab countries were available for analysis. In addition to infant and child mortality, child health was measured by nutritional status, vaccination, and Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI). Within-country disparities in child health by gender, residence (urban/rural) and maternal educational level were described. Child health was also analyzed by macro measures of development, including per capita GDP (PPP), female literacy rates, urban population and doctors per 100,000 people. Results Gender disparities in child health using the above indicators were less evident, with most showing clear female advantage. With the exception of infant and child survival, gender disparities demonstrated a female advantage, as well as a large urban advantage and an overall advantage for mothers with secondary education. Surprisingly, the countries' rankings with respect to disparities were not associated with various macro measures of development. Conclusion The tenacity of pervasive intra-country socioeconomic disparities in child health calls for attention by policy makers and health practitioners. PMID:19021903

  17. Health promotion practice and public health: challenge for the 1990s. Heart Health Think Tank Group.

    PubMed

    Hall, N; Best, J A

    1997-01-01

    The issue of practice skills arose in the course of a process evaluation of the Heart Smart North Shore (HSNS) project in British Columbia. We created a Think Tank of researchers and community practitioners to make recommendations for improvement of our skills. These recommendations differed according to different values for health and opinions on how to create health in the community. Because the site reviewers of the HSNS project were clear this was a disease prevention project and not a community development initiative, HSNS's orientation to skill development after the Think Tank moved toward the Precede/Proceed model, the Transtheoretical model and social marketing approaches. The Health Unit has now been restructured into multidisciplinary service teams which must focus on population health, evidence-based practice and the social determinants of health, and thus need to consider health promotion from a community development perspective and empowerment model. We suggest that learning and the development of staff and community volunteers should be seen as a continuous and reflective process that takes place at the individual, community and organizational level.

  18. Metal concentrations in Maryland`s shellfish: 1970s--1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Murphy, D.L.

    1995-12-31

    Maryland has been monitoring arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury and zinc in bivalve shellfish from state waters since the 1960s. The primary bivalve species monitored in Maryland waters are the oyster, Crassostrea virginica and the softshell clam, Mya arenaria. These data have been evaluated for temporal trends. In order to insure that temporal evaluations be based upon data produced using comparable analytical methods, the time period evaluated is not the same for all analytes. For example, while most evaluations are for the period 1974 through 1994, arsenic data were evaluated for the period 1980 through 1994. Data for oyster tissue indicate declines in levels of mercury, cadmium, arsenic, copper and zinc on the order of 70--90%. The major portion of these reductions occurred prior to 1985. These declines are evident from data collected from Maryland`s lower eastern shore, a relatively remote area, as well as from waters closer to larger population centers. Past detection levels for lead and chromium were insufficiently low to detect temporal changes.

  19. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  20. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-10-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  1. Changes in CH4 emission from rice fields from 1960 to 1990s: 1. Impacts of modern rice technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gon, Hugo Denier

    2000-03-01

    Four countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Nepal) were taken as an example to assess the impact of changes in rice cultivation on methane emissions from rice fields since the 1960s. The change of rice area by type of culture from 1960-1990s is estimated, and its relative contribution to national harvested rice area is calculated and multiplied with an emission factor, to derive the relative methane emission per unit rice land. Relative methane emission per ha rice land has increased since 1960 for all four countries, largely due to an increase in irrigated rice area and partly due to a decrease in upland rice area. Patterns of rice area changes and related emission changes differ considerably among countries. On the basis of the rice area increases between 1960 and the 1990s, significant increases in methane emissions from rice fields due to increases in total rice cultivated area are not to be expected in the future. The impact of modern rice variety adoption is assessed by relating methane emissions to rice production. The organic matter returned to the paddy soil is largely determined by rice biomass production which, given a certain yield, is different for traditional and modern rice varieties. By calculating total organic matter returned to rice paddy soils and assuming a constant fraction to be emitted as methane, rice production and methane emission can be related. The analysis indicates that (1) up to now, rice yield increases in countries with high modern rice variety adoption have not resulted in increased methane emissions per unit of harvested area and, (2) global annual emission from rice fields may be considerably lower than generally assumed. The introduction of modern rice varieties can be regarded as a historical methane emission mitigation strategy because higher rice yields resulted in lower or equal methane emissions.

  2. Changes in CH4 emission from rice fields from 1960 to 1990s. 1. Impacts of modern rice technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Gon, Hugo Denier

    2000-03-01

    Four countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Nepal) were taken as an example to assess the impact of changes in rice cultivation on methane emissions from rice fields since the 1960s. The change of rice area by type of culture from 1960-1990s is estimated, and its relative contribution to national harvested rice area is calculated and multiplied with an emission factor, to derive the relative methane emission per unit rice land. Relative methane emission per ha rice land has increased since 1960 for all four countries, largely due to an increase in irrigated rice area and partly due to a decrease in upland rice area. Patterns of rice area changes and related emission changes differ considerably among countries. On the basis of the rice area increases between 1960 and the 1990s, significant increases in methane emissions from rice fields due to increases in total rice cultivated area are not to be expected in the future. The impact of modern rice variety adoption is assessed by relating methane emissions to rice production. The organic matter returned to the paddy soil is largely determined by rice biomass production which, given a certain yield, is different for traditional and modern rice varieties. By calculating total organic matter returned to rice paddy soils and assuming a constant fraction to be emitted as methane, rice production and methane emission can be related. The analysis indicates that (1) up to now, rice yield increases in countries with high modern rice variety adoption have not resulted in increased methane emissions per unit of harvested area and, (2) global annual emission from rice fields may be considerably lower than generally assumed. The introduction of modern rice varieties can be regarded as a historical methane emission mitigation strategy because higher rice yields resulted in lower or equal methane emissions.

  3. Sensitizing events as trigger for discursive renewal and institutional change in Flanders’ environmental health approach, 1970s-1990s

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Sensitizing events may trigger and stimulate discursive renewal. From a discursive institutional perspective, changing discourses are the driving force behind the institutional dynamics of policy domains. Theoretically informed by discursive institutionalism, this article assesses the impact of a series of four sensitizing events that triggered serious environmental health concerns in Flanders between the 1970s till the 1990s, and led onto the gradual institutionalization of a Flemish environmental health arrangement. Methods The Policy Arrangement Approach is used as the analytical framework to structure the empirical results of the historical analysis based on document analysis and in-depth interviews. Results Until the 1990s, environmental health was characterized as an ad hoc policy field in Flanders, where agenda setting was based on sensitizing events – also referred to as incident-driven. Each of these events contributed to a gradual rethinking of the epistemological discourses about environmental health risks and uncertainties. These new discourses were the driving forces behind institutional dynamics as they gradually resulted in an increased need for: 1) long-term, policy-oriented, interdisciplinary environmental health research; 2) policy coordination and integration between the environmental and public health policy fields; and 3) new forms of science-policy interactions based on mutual learning. These changes are desirable in order to detect environmental health problems as fast as possible, to react immediately and communicate appropriately. Conclusions The series of four events that triggered serious environmental health concerns in Flanders provided the opportunity to rethink and re-organize the current affairs concerning environmental health and gradually resulted into the institutionalization of a Flemish environmental health arrangement. PMID:23758822

  4. Eosinophils in the 1990s: new perspectives on their role in health and disease.

    PubMed Central

    Wardlaw, A. J.

    1994-01-01

    Eosinophils are characterized by their unique crystalloid granules that contain four basic proteins--MBP, ECP, EDN and EPO. The cell has many common features with neutrophils but, unlike that cell type, eosinophils utilize VLA-4/VCAM-1 as an adherence pathway and have a number of other receptors not shared by neutrophils. These include recognition units for IgE (distinct from CD23), and receptors for IL-5, IL-3 and RANTES. Following stimulation with a variety of agents, eosinophils preferentially elaborate LTC4 as the major 5-lipoxygenase product of arachidonic acid and produce substantial amounts of PAF. Of particular interest is the ability of eosinophils to synthesize a number of cytokines. Thus eosinophils have marked pro-inflammatory potential. There is now convincing evidence that eosinophilia is T-cell dependent. The Th2-type cell, which selectively secretes IL-5 and IL-4, seems particularly involved. IL-5, IL-3 and GM-CSF are required for eosinophil maturation, and cause activation and prolonged survival of the mature cell. IL-5 is unique in that it promotes terminal differentiation of the committed eosinophil precursor and in vivo in mice appears to be sufficient on its own for eosinophil growth from uncommited stem cells. IL-4 selectively upregulates VCAM-1 expression on endothelial cells thus augmenting VLA-4-dependent eosinophil adhesion. The role of eosinophils in disease is complex but in general their numbers are increased in helminthic parasitic disease and atopic allergy and asthma. Eosinophil products can produce many of the pathological features of asthma, and helminthic larvae coated with immunoglobulin or complement are particularly susceptible to eosinophil-mediated cytotoxicity. Eosinopenia is often related to acute inflammation or stress. PMID:7937446

  5. Top-Down Assessment of the Asian Carbon Budget Since the Mid 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, R.; Canadell, J.; Patra, P. K.; Chevallier, F.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Law, R. M.; Ziehn, T.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; Peters, W.; Ganshin, A.; Zhuravlev, R.; Maki, T.; Nakamura, T.; Shirai, T.; Ishizawa, M.; Saeki, T.; Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principle driver of anthropogenic climate change. Asia is an important region for the global carbon budget, with four of the world's ten largest national emitters of CO2, but it is also a region with considerable uncertainty in both anthropogenic emissions and land biosphere fluxes of CO2. Furthermore, Asia has undergone rapid economic growth over the past two decades, which has been associated with large increases in fossil fuel emissions, 190% for India and 240% for China between 1990 and 2010. We have used an ensemble of seven atmospheric CO2 inversions and three standard fossil fuel and cement fluxes, based on the inventories of CDIAC, EDGAR and IEA, to determine the land biosphere fluxes for East, South and Southeast Asia, and to ascertain the robustness and overall uncertainty of the results. We find that the East Asian land biosphere was on average a carbon sink of -0.35 ± 0.37 PgC y-1 (median and MAD), or equivalently 17 ± 18% of East Asia's fossil fuel and cement emissions, over 1996 - 2012. Between 1996 - 2001 and 2008 - 2012, we find an increase in the sink of 0.74 ± 0.28 PgC y-1, however the magnitude of this is contingent on the assumed increase in fossil fuel emissions. For South Asia, we find that on average the land biosphere was close to carbon neutral, -0.01 ± 0.20 PgC y-1 over 1996 - 2012 and that there was no significant trend. For Southeast Asia, we find no evidence for a trend in the land biosphere flux over 1996 - 2012 and we cannot determine any difference from carbon neutrality (as assumed a priori by most inversions) with a flux of 0.06 ± 0.29 PgC y-1, throughout this period despite extensive tropical deforestation.

  6. [Population growth in Plasencia in the nineteenth century].

    PubMed

    Sanchez De La Calle, J A

    1993-01-01

    "Using sources such as parish registers, civil registers, records of the town hall, inquiries, [censuses] and list of inhabitants, we have been able to confirm the existence of four different stages in the demographic development of Plasencia [Spain]. The first one, between 1800 and 1815, is characterized by a scarce growing.... The second one, between 1816 and 1839, shows a certain increase which is restrained at the end of the 30s because of some epidemic illness (cholera and various fevers). The period between 1840 and 1871 is a stage of slow growing due to many subsistence crises. The fourth stage, 1872-1899, continues the same outline with a great rising of mortality, which does not prevent the rising of population in Plasencia caused by a high rate of inmigration." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

  7. Endogenous population growth and the exploitation of renewable resources.

    PubMed

    Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G; Wirl, F

    1994-01-01

    The authors consider a demo-economic model where the economy consists of two sectors ("hunting and farming" and "industry"), and both sectors depend directly or indirectly on the explanation of a renewable resource. The primary sector harvests a renewable resource (fish, corn, or wood) which is used as the input into industrial production, the secondary sector of our economy. Labor is divided up between these two sectors under the assumption of competitive labor markets. A system of two nonlinear differential equations for the resources and the population is studied by phase space analysis. Using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, the authors obtain two different routes to limit cycles and prove numerically the existence of a stable Malthusian limit cycle.

  8. A MULTI-PATCH MALARIA MODEL WITH LOGISTIC GROWTH POPULATIONS*

    PubMed Central

    GAO, DAOZHOU; RUAN, SHIGUI

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a multi-patch model to study the effects of population dispersal on the spatial spread of malaria between patches. The basic reproduction number R0 is derived and it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R0<1 and unstable if R0>1. Bounds on the disease-free equilibrium and R0 are given. A sufficient condition for the existence of an endemic equilibrium when R0>1 is obtained. For the two-patch submodel, the dependence of R0 on the movement of exposed, infectious, and recovered humans between the two patches is investigated. Numerical simulations indicate that travel can help the disease to become endemic in both patches, even though the disease dies out in each isolated patch. However, if travel rates are continuously increased, the disease may die out again in both patches. PMID:23723531

  9. Agricultural change and population growth: a brief survey on the case of China in historical perspective.

    PubMed

    Liu, T

    1986-03-01

    A historical review of the relationship between agricultural change and population growth in China is presented. "This paper will try to discuss four aspects of agricultural change that are related to population growth. They are: (1) expansion of agricultural frontier, (2) changes in cultivation methods and land use, (3) improvements in agricultural technology, and (4) irrigation and water-control. Each of these aspects [is] treated briefly with temporal and spatial perspectives...." The relevance of the Boserup theory that population pressure leads to agricultural development is considered in the Chinese context. It is found that some evidence supports the theory. (summary in CHI)

  10. [Public policies in the decade of the 1990's: the case of nutrition].

    PubMed

    Gutierrez, A T

    1991-01-01

    In Venezuela, mortality related to nutritional deficiencies was low with a total of 178 cases in 1973 and 391 cases in 1981, affecting mainly children under the age of 12 months. In 1988 the System of Nutritional Surveillance (SISVAN) reported that the majority of hospital admissions with serious nutritional deficit were those with inadequate weight-height ratio: 37.0% of children under 1 year of age in 1988 and 46.4% in 1989. In 1988 SISVAN reported a decrease in the weight-height deficit in children under 10 years of age: 28,609 children in 1988 and 28,548 in 1989; whereas the age group from 2 to 6 years was the most affected by such deficit. Overall, however, there had been a slowdown in the improvement in child nutrition with the increase of grave malnutrition according to 1988 and 1989 data. 1990 and 1991 data showed an improved situation as a result of better use of state medical services by families and the milk program, indicating a decrease of the weight-height ratio deficit in children under 10 years of age: 18.0% in the first trimester of 1990 and 14.0% in 1991, along with the reduction of grave deficit from 0.9% in 1990 to 0.6% in 1991. Feeding as a determinant aspect of nutrition deals with the precarious nature of existing supplies, the diminution of acquisitive capacity, and the habits of consumption. The initiatives of the state for overcoming the situation include the basic basket of foodstuffs, direct subsidies to the low income population, and programs that fight nutritional deficiencies of children, such as the Expanded Maternal-Child Nutrition Program (PAMI). Households of daily care constitute the regional initiatives and the ability of the state to maintain these programs. The responses of urban centers before this initiative included a successful experiment, the center of education and nutritional recovery, and the child survival program.

  11. Population growth rate determinants for Arbacia: Evaluating ecological relevance of toxicity test endpoints

    SciTech Connect

    Nacci, D.; Gleason, T.; Munns, W.R. Jr.

    1995-12-31

    A population dynamics model for the sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, was recently developed incorporating life stage endpoints frequently measured in acute and chronic toxicity studies. Model elasticity analysis was used to demonstrate that population growth rate was influenced most by adult survival and least by early life stage success, calling into question the ecological relevance of results from standardized Arbacia fertilization and larval development toxicity tests. Two approaches were used to continue this evaluation. Actual and hypothetical dose-response curves for toxicant exposures over multiple life stages were used to evaluate contributions to population growth rate of stage-specific toxicant effects. Additionally, relationships between critical life stages were developed from laboratory data for Arbacia. The results of this analysis underscore the importance of understanding both endpoint sensitivity to toxicants and sensitivity of population growth rate to test endpoints in determining the ecological relevance of toxicity tests results.

  12. Tropical forest cover change in the 1990s and options for future monitoring.

    PubMed

    Mayaux, Philippe; Holmgren, Peter; Achard, Frédéric; Eva, Hugh; Stibig, Hans-Jürgen; Branthomme, Anne

    2005-02-28

    Despite the importance of the world's humid tropical forests, our knowledge concerning their rates of change remains limited. Two recent programmes (FAO 2000 Forest Resources Assessment and TREES II), exploiting the global imaging capabilities of Earth observing satellites, have recently been completed to provide information on the dynamics of tropical forest cover. The results from these independent studies show a high degree of conformity and provide a good understanding of trends at the pan-tropical level. In 1990 there were some 1150 million ha of tropical rain forest with the area of the humid tropics deforested annually estimated at 5.8 million ha (approximately twice the size of Belgium). A further 2.3 million ha of humid forest is apparently degraded annually through fragmentation, logging and/or fires. In the sub-humid and dry tropics, annual deforestation of tropical moist deciduous and tropical dry forests comes to 2.2 and 0.7 million ha, respectively. Southeast Asia is the region where forests are under the highest pressure with an annual change rate of -0.8 to -0.9%. The annual area deforested in Latin America is large, but the relative rate (-0.4 to -0.5%) is lower, owing to the vast area covered by the remaining Amazonian forests. The humid forests of Africa are being converted at a similar rate to those of Latin America (-0.4 to -0.5% per year). During this period, secondary forests have also been established, through re-growth on abandoned land and forest plantations, but with different ecological, biophysical and economic characteristics compared with primary forests. These trends are significant in all regions, but the extent of new forest cover has proven difficult to establish. These results, as well as the lack of more detailed knowledge, clearly demonstrate the need to improve sound scientific evidence to support policy. The two projects provide useful guidance for future monitoring efforts in the context of multilateral environmental

  13. The ocean blues. Navigating the course of population growth.

    PubMed

    Sarkar, D

    1996-01-01

    Oceans and their role in environmental balance are discussed in this article. Coastal waters within 200 miles from land are identified as providing over half the ocean's total biological productivity and supply of nearly all of the world's fish catch. Almost 3.6 billion people live in coastal areas or within 90 miles of coastal waters, which accounts for about 66% of world population. Coastal land areas account for about 8% of the earth's total land area. 8.3 billion people are expected by 2025 to live in coastal areas. 9 of the 10 largest cities in the world are located on coasts. 7 of the 10 largest cities in the US are coastal cities (54% of the US population or 142 million people). Almost all of the marine pollution is derived from land-based sources, such as sewage, nutrients, sediments, litter, and plastics. Mangroves in coastal waters have been reduced by about 50% to about 90,000 sq. miles worldwide. Global consumption of fish is responsible for depleting fish supplies and the loss of mangroves due to aquaculture of shrimp or other seafood. The US National Fisheries Service is cited for its report that 67 of the 156 fish stocks are overexploited. About 1 billion people, mostly in developing countries, rely on fish as their main food source. If imbalances in demand and supply continue, the rising price of fish and seafood will threaten the lives of about 1 billion or more people. Numerous international and national actions have been taken in order to protect supplies and reduce pollution. Sound resource management practices need to be instituted. Small and large fisheries can begin by reducing the 27 million tons of unintentional fish captures and by converting 29 million tons of fish used for animal feed into food for human consumption. Management of US coastal lands in most coastal states, with the exception of California and Rhode Island, is weak. Maryland has adopted a community-level approach for management of the Chesapeake Bay. Other environmental

  14. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  15. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

  16. Sexual Reproduction in a Simple Growth Population Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Carlos Gentil Oro; Santos, Marcio

    2012-05-01

    One of the most important characteristics in the survival of a species is related to the kind of reproduction responsible for the offspring generation. However, only in the last years the role played by sexual reproduction has been investigated. Then, for a better understanding of this kind of process we introduce, in this work, a surface reaction model that describes the role of the sexual reproduction. In our model two different elements of the species, representing male and female, can interact to reproduce a new element. The sex of this new element is chosen with a given probability and in order to take into account the mortality rate we introduce another kind of individual. The value of the spatial density of this element remains constant during the time evolution of the system. The model is studied using Monte Carlo simulations and mean field approximation. Depending on the values of the control parameters of the model, the system can attain two stationary states: In one of them the population survives and in the other it can be extinguished. Besides, accordingly to our results, the phase diagram of the model shows a discontinuous transition between these two states.

  17. The impact of disease on the survival and population growth rate of the Tasmanian devil.

    PubMed

    Lachish, Shelly; Jones, Menna; McCallum, Hamish

    2007-09-01

    1. We investigated the impact of a recently emerged disease, Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), on the survival and population growth rate of a population of Tasmanian devils, Sarcophilus harrisii, on the Freycinet Peninsula in eastern Tasmania. 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber and multistate mark-recapture models were employed to investigate the impact of DFTD on age- and sex-specific apparent survival and transition rates. Disease impact on population growth rate was investigated using reverse-time mark-recapture models. 3. The arrival of DFTD triggered an immediate and steady decline in apparent survival rates of adults and subadults, the rate of which was predicted well by the increase in disease prevalence in the population over time. 4. Transitions from healthy to diseased state increased with disease prevalence suggesting that the force of infection in the population is increasing and that the epidemic is not subsiding. 5. The arrival of DFTD coincided with a marked, ongoing decline in the population growth rate of the previously stable population, which to date has not been offset by population compensatory responses.

  18. Potential population growth and harmful effects on humans from bed bug populations exposed to different feeding regimes.

    PubMed

    Pereira, R M; Taylor, A S; Lehnert, M P; Koehler, P G

    2013-06-01

    Effects of host availability and feeding period on bed bugs, Cimex lectularius (L.) (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), were measured. Population growth and the potential harmful effect of bed bug populations on human hosts were modelled. Bloodmeal sizes were affected by both feeding length and frequency, with >2-fold difference between insects fed daily or weekly. Blood consumption increased >2-fold between bed bugs fed occasionally and often, and 1.5-fold between occasional and daily feeding. Bed bugs fed more often than once a week, potentially every 2-4 days. Egg production was associated with nutrition, being strongly correlated with blood consumption in the previous week. Bed bug populations can grow under different feeding regimes and are hard to control with <80% mortality. Bed bugs can survive and grow even in locations with a limited blood supply, where bed bug persistence may be important for the continual spread of populations. Persistence in non-traditional locations and a potential association with human pathogens increase the health risks of bed bugs. Potential blood loss as a result of a bed bug can have serious consequences because uncontrolled populations can reach harmful levels in 3-8 months. The reproduction potential of bed bug populations suggests serious consequences to human health and the need for efficacious control measures.

  19. Modeling circadian clock-cell cycle interaction effects on cell population growth rates.

    PubMed

    El Cheikh, R; Bernard, S; El Khatib, N

    2014-12-21

    The circadian clock and the cell cycle are two tightly coupled oscillators. Recent analytical studies have shown counter-intuitive effects of circadian gating of the cell cycle on growth rates of proliferating cells which cannot be explained by a molecular model or a population model alone. In this work, we present a combined molecular-population model that studies how coupling the circadian clock to the cell cycle, through the protein WEE1, affects a proliferating cell population. We show that the cell cycle can entrain to the circadian clock with different rational period ratios and characterize multiple domains of entrainment. We show that coupling increases the growth rate for autonomous periods of the cell cycle around 24 h and above 48 h. We study the effect of mutation of circadian genes on the growth rate of cells and show that disruption of the circadian clock can lead to abnormal proliferation. Particularly, we show that Cry 1, Cry 2 mutations decrease the growth rate of cells, Per 2 mutation enhances it and Bmal 1 knockout increases it for autonomous periods of the cell cycle less than 21 h and decreases it elsewhere. Combining a molecular model to a population model offers new insight on the influence of the circadian clock on the growth of a cell population. This can help chronotherapy which takes benefits of physiological rhythms to improve anti-cancer efficacy and tolerance to drugs by administering treatments at a specific time of the day.

  20. A heterogeneous population model for the analysis of bacterial growth kinetics.

    PubMed

    McKellar, R C

    1997-05-20

    A two-compartment, heterogeneous population model (HPM) was derived using the simulation software SB ModelMaker to describe the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in bacteriological media at 5-35 degrees C. The model assumed that, at time t = 0, the inoculum was distributed between two distinct compartments, Non-Growing and Growing, and that growth could be described by four parameters: initial total cell population (N0), final maximum cell population (Nmax), maximum specific growth rate (mu(max)), and initial cell population in the Growing compartment (G0). The model was fitted to the data by optimizing the four parameters, and lag phase duration (lambda) was calculated. The resulting values of mu(max) and lambda were similar to those determined using the modified Gompertz equation. A new parameter, w0, was defined which relates to the proportion of the initial cell population capable of growth, and is a measure of the initial physiological state of the cells. A modified model in which mu(max) was replaced with a temperature function, and w0 replaced G0, was used to predict the effect of temperature on the growth of L. monocytogenes. The results of this study raise questions concerning the current definition of the lag phase.

  1. A Dramatic Regime Shift in Rainfall Predictability Related to the Ningaloo Niño/Niña in the Late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doi, T.; Behera, S. K.; Yamagata, T.

    2014-12-01

    The global warming and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) started influencing the coastal ocean off Western Australia, leading to a dramatic change in the regional climate predictability. The warmed ocean started driving rainfall regionally there after the late 1990s. Because of this, rainfall predictability off Western Australia on a seasonal time scale was drastically enhanced in the late 1990s; it is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after the late 1990s. The high prediction skill of the rainfall in recent decades encourages development of an early warning system of Ningaloo Niño/Niña events to mitigate possible societal as well as agricultural impacts in the granary.

  2. Population growth and economic development: two new U.S. perspectives.

    PubMed

    Wulf, D; Klitsch, M

    1986-01-01

    This report compares the research paths of economic development reports by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the American Assembly of Columbia University. The NAS group, made up principally of economists and demographers, refrained from recommending population reduction targets, in contrast to the stronger terms of its 1971 report. A 1965 report by the Assembly spoke of population as a serious negative influence for economic development, political stability, and world peace, while the new report speaks of negative socioeconomic effects, and of the limiting of a person's right to control family size. The NAS agenda was established before the US delegation to the UN population conference in Mexico City retreated from declaring population growth to be a necessarily negative influencer of socioeconomic progress. The Assembly took the position that possible benefits of population growth would be far outweighed by factors such as resource depletion and women's health. The NAS maintained that growth might provide incentives for institutional adjustments (market development, investment in education) and control of growth should not be considered a substitute for such interventions. Both reports agree that control of fertility is a human right, but the NAS report examined the question of the acceptable degree of compulsion to be used to encourage couples. The Assembly objected to limiting access to family planning by defunding abortion programs oversease. Differences exist between the 2 reports in questins such as the negative impact of 1950's population growth, the synergistic effect of growth on many areas of human activity, the extent to which welfare of future generations is considered relevant today, and the adequacy of pure economic analysis in assessing need. Much study of population/development linkages is still required.

  3. India's fertility declines, but it still leads world in population growth.

    PubMed

    Visaria, L; Visaria, P

    1995-10-01

    Despite its fertility decline, India still has the world's second largest population size. Over the decades fertility declined to 3.6 in 1992 per woman. However great or rapid the decline, the population growth rate is an estimated 1.9% a year. Only three countries in the world have a higher rate of growth: Nigeria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Fertility decline is attributed to increased literacy, urbanization, industrialization, modern communication and transportation, and women's status. The availability of government family planning services has also contributed to the fertility decline. Although female literacy has risen rapidly to 39% in 1991, male literacy is still higher at 64%. Girls lag behind in school attendance in both rural and urban areas. Fertility decline has occurred faster in urban areas, which are concentrated in cities of over 100,000 people. The childbearing period has declined, and childbearing is delayed. Contraceptive usage has grown dramatically since 1970 to around 40%, depending upon the data source. Population growth is attributed to improvements in health and mortality. Life expectancy has increased to 60 years, and infant mortality declined to 74 per 1000 live births. The age structure of the population is young due to demographic changes. Growth will continue for several decades due to population momentum. India is expected to surpass China as the most populous country in the world before 2050.

  4. Getting the timing right: antler growth phenology and sexual selection in a wild red deer population.

    PubMed

    Clements, Michelle N; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Albon, Steve D; Pemberton, Josephine M; Kruuk, Loeske E B

    2010-10-01

    There has been growing interest in the determinants of the annual timing of biological phenomena, or phenology, in wild populations, but research on vertebrate taxa has primarily focused on the phenology of reproduction. We present here analyses of the phenology of the annual growth of a secondary sexual characteristic, antlers in red deer (Cervus elaphus) males. The long-term individual-based data from a wild population of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland allow us to consider ecological factors influencing variation in the phenology of growth of antlers, and the implications of variation in antler growth phenology with respect to the phenotype of antler grown (antler mass) and annual breeding success. The phenology of antler growth was influenced by local environmental conditions: higher population density delayed both the start date (during spring) and the relative end date (in late summer) of antler growth, and warmer temperatures in the September and April prior to growth advanced start and end dates, respectively. Furthermore, there was variation between individuals in this phenotypic plasticity of start date, although not in that of end date of growth. The phenology of antler growth impacted on the morphology of antlers grown, with individuals who started and ended growth earliest having the heaviest antlers. The timing of antler growth phenology was associated with breeding success in the following mating season, independently of the mass of antlers grown: an earlier start of antler growth was associated with siring a higher number of the calves born the following spring. Our results suggest that the phenology of traits that are not directly correlated with offspring survival may also regularly show correlations with fitness.

  5. Physical Growth of the Shuar: Height, Weight, and BMI References for an Indigenous Amazonian Population

    PubMed Central

    URLACHER, SAMUEL S.; BLACKWELL, AARON D.; LIEBERT, MELISSA A.; MADIMENOS, FELICIA C.; CEPON-ROBINS, TARA J.; GILDNER, THERESA E.; SNODGRASS, J. JOSH; SUGIYAMA, LAWRENCE S.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Information concerning physical growth among small-scale populations remains limited, yet such data are critical to local health efforts and to foster basic understandings of human life history and variation in childhood development. Using a large dataset and robust modeling methods, this study aims to describe growth from birth to adulthood among the indigenous Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Methods Mixed-longitudinal measures of height, weight, and BMI were collected from Shuar participants (n = 2,463; age 0–29 years). Centile growth curves and tables were created for each anthropometric variable of interest using GAMLSS. Pseudo-velocity and LMS curves were generated to further investigate Shuar patterns of growth and to facilitate comparison with U.S. CDC and multinational WHO growth references. Results The Shuar are small throughout life and exhibit complex patterns of growth that differ substantially from those of international references. Similar to other Amazonians, Shuar growth in weight compares more favorably to references than growth in height, resulting in BMI curves that approximate international medians. Several additional characteristics of Shuar development are noteworthy, including large observed variation in body size early in life, significant infant growth faltering, extended male growth into adulthood, and a markedly early female pubertal growth spurt in height. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic selection in response to local environmental factors may explain many of these patterns. Conclusions Providing a detailed reference of growth for the Shuar and other Amazonian populations, this study possesses direct clinical application and affords valuable insight into childhood health and the ecology of human growth. PMID:26126793

  6. Respective impact of climate and fisheries on the growth of an albatross population.

    PubMed

    Rolland, V; Nevoux, M; Barbraud, C; Weimerskirch, H

    2009-07-01

    Climate and human activities such as fisheries impact many animal species. However, the demographic processes through which the population vital rates are affected, and the sensitivity of their growth rates, are poorly understood. The Black-browed Albatross, Thalassarche melanophrys, is a long-lived threatened seabird species. Previous studies have shown that the adult survival and breeding success of the population breeding at Kerguelen are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during both the breeding and the nonbreeding season, and by tuna long-lining in Tasmanian waters through bycatch mortality. Here, using long-term demographic data from a Black-browed Albatross colony monitored for 26 years at Kerguelen, we estimate all demographic parameters from early to adult stages of the life cycle in order to build a fully parameterized population model and predict population growth rates under several scenarios of climate and fishing effort. The observed population growth rate (1.003) indicates that the population was stable or slightly increasing, and our population model gives a close estimate of 1.008. Population growth rate is more sensitive to survival of experienced breeders and accordingly to a change in SSTA during incubation and to tuna long-lining effort (both affecting survival of experienced breeders) than to other demographic parameters/environmental covariates. The population stability results from multiple factors and complex relationships between demographic parameters and environmental conditions, and therefore population equilibrium is precarious. If fishing effort remains stable at its current level and positive SSTA increase, or inversely if fishing effort decreases and SSTA remain similar to present values, then the population would increase. However, if fishing effort increases by 20% (i.e., to 40 million hooks) on the wintering grounds, without any change in SSTA, then the population would decrease at 0.9% per year. If fishing

  7. Survival, Recruitment, and Population Growth Rate of an Important Mesopredator: The Northern Raccoon

    PubMed Central

    Troyer, Elizabeth M.; Cameron Devitt, Susan E.; Sunquist, Melvin E.; Goswami, Varun R.; Oli, Madan K.

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel’s temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936–0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893–0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078–0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042–0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996–1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models. PMID:24901349

  8. A Two-Phase Case-Control Study of Autism Risk Among Children Born From the Late 1990s Through the Early 2000s in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Geier, David A.; Kern, Janet K.; Geier, Mark R.

    2016-01-01

    Background This study evaluated the hypothesis that the 1999 recommendation by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) and US Public Health Service (PHS) to reduce exposure to mercury (Hg) from Thimerosal in US vaccines would be associated with a reduction in the long-term risk of being diagnosed with autism. Material/Methods A two-phase assessment utilizing a case (n=73) -control (n=11,783) study in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database (for hypothesis generating) and a more rigorous, independent matched case (n=40) -control (n=40) study (hypothesis testing) was undertaken. Results Analysis of the VAERS database using logistic regression revealed that the odds ratio (OR) for being an autism case in the VAERS database significantly decreased with a more recent year of vaccination in comparison to controls (OR=0.65) from 1998 to 2003. Sex-separated analyses revealed similar significant effects for males (OR=0.62) and females (OR=0.71). Analyses of the matched case-control data revealed, using the t-test statistic, that the mean date of birth among cases diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) (2000.5±1.2) was significantly more in the past than in controls (2001.1±1.3). Logistic regression also revealed that the OR for being diagnosed with ASD significantly decreased with a more recent date of birth in comparison to controls (OR=0.67) from 1998–2003. Conclusions This study reveals that the risk of autism during from the late1990s to early 2000s in the US significantly decreased with reductions in Hg exposure from Thimerosal-containing childhood vaccines, but future studies should examine this phenomenon in other US populations. Vaccine programs have significantly reduced the morbidity and mortality associated with infectious disease, but Thimerosal should be removed from all vaccines.

  9. Racial/ethnic diversification in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan population change in the United States: implications for health care provision in rural America.

    PubMed

    Murdock, Steve H; Hoque, Md Nazrul; Johnson, Kenneth; McGehee, Mary A

    2003-01-01

    The diversification of the rural population of the United States provides substantial challenges to the current and to future health care systems in rural areas. Because of a variety of historical, discriminatory, and other factors, minority populations have had lower levels of access to health care in rural as well as urban areas and higher rates of both mortality and morbidity than nonminority populations. Although minority health issues have often been seen as primarily urban issues, this article demonstrates that minority population growth has become a major component of total population growth in rural areas in the past several decades (accounting for nearly 62% of the net growth in the nonmetropolitan population of the United States in the 1980s and for nearly 42% in the 1990s), that future US population growth is likely to be largely a product of minority population growth (nearly 89% of US net population growth from 2000 to 2100 is projected to be due to minority population growth), and that the incidence of diseases and disorders in the US population will come to increasingly involve minority populations (by 2050 roughly 43% of all disease/disorder incidences would involve minority population members). The growth of younger minority populations with disproportionately impoverished socioeconomic characteristics will pose challenges for rural areas and health care systems, which also are likely to face health issues created by disproportionately older populations.

  10. Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    PubMed

    Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

    2011-08-01

    Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

  11. Role of prey and intraspecific density dependence on the population growth of an avian top predator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez-de-Simon, Javier; Díaz-Ruiz, Francisco; Cirilli, Francesca; Tortosa, Francisco S.; Villafuerte, Rafael; Ferreras, Pablo

    2014-10-01

    Exploring predator-prey systems in diverse ecosystems increases our knowledge about ecological processes. Predator population growth may be positive when conspecific density is low but predators also need areas with prey availability, associated with competition, which increases the risk of suffering losses but stabilises populations. We studied relationships between European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus (prey) and adult eagle owls Bubo bubo (predators) in south-western Europe. We assessed models explaining the predator population growth and stability. We estimated the abundance of rabbits and adult eagle owls during three years in eight localities of central-southern Spain. We explored models including rabbit and adult eagle owl abundance, accounting for yearly variations and including the locality as a random variable. We found that population growth of adult eagle owls was positive in situations with low conspecific abundance and tended to be negative but approaching equilibrium in situations of higher conspecific abundance. Population growth was also positively related to previous summer rabbit density when taking into account eagle owl conspecific abundance, possibly indicating that rabbits may support recruitment. Furthermore, abundance stability of adult eagle owls was positively related to previous winter-spring rabbit density, which could suggest predator population stabilisation through quick territory occupation in high-quality areas. These results exemplify the trade-off between prey availability and abundance of adult predators related to population growth and abundance stability in the eagle owl-rabbit system in south-western Europe. Despite rabbits have greatly declined during the last decades and eagle owls locally specialise on them, eagle owls currently have a favourable conservation status. As eagle owls are the only nocturnal raptor with such dependence on rabbits, this could point out that predators may overcome prey decreases in areas with

  12. Natural growth of the population of Plovdiv, Bulgaria for the period 1895-1995.

    PubMed

    Dimitrov, I

    1998-01-01

    A study of the natural growth rate of the population using female cohorts by birth year has been carried out for the first time in our country. The study comprises 14 cohorts. The following characteristics are recorded: birth year, social group, educational level, number of live births, age of marriage, infant mortality rate, proto- and intergenetic intervals. Our report presents the key indicators of natural growth of population in the studied cohorts. A consistent trend of decreasing the number of livebirths is established. In the first studied cohort (1895-1899) the average number of offspring per woman is 3.94, reaching a level of 1.77 in the 1960-1964 cohort. The indicators for natural growth of population exhibit a similar trend. The summary fertility rate in the reference period decreases with more than 2 points--from 4.47 in 1895-1899 to 1.73 in 1960-1964. Likewise, the total reproduction rate goes down from 2.54 to 0.78 for the same period. Considerable changes have occurred in the indicators total period fertility rate and marriage fertility rate of women. For a period of 110 years the former has decreased 3.5 times, the latter--8 times. The drastic drop of the indicators of natural growth of the population is accounted for by an intricate complex of social, economic, psychological and biological factors. The marked aging of the population and the decrease of the percentage of women in active fertility age play a certain role in this process. The ascertained changes in the reproductive behavior and age structure of the female population are factors intensifying the unfavorable trends in the natural growth rate of the population in our country.

  13. Modeling the pre-industrial roots of modern super-exponential population growth.

    PubMed

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth-so evident in 18th Century Europe-was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography--especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

  14. Capital accumulation, aspiration adjustment, and population growth: limit cycles in an Easterlin-type model.

    PubMed

    Feichtinger, G; Sorger, G

    1990-01-01

    "One of the recent interesting hypotheses of population growth is due to Easterlin who suggests the possibility of self-generating fluctuations in birth numbers. The present paper tries to answer the question whether feedback mechanisms produce persistent oscillations in population growth. A system of two nonlinear differential equations for the per capita capital stock and the aspiration level is studied by a phase portrait analysis. Using the Poincare-Bendixson theorem we derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a stable limit cycle." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

  15. Influence of Plant Population and Nitrogen-Fertilizer at Various Levels on Growth and Growth Efficiency of Maize

    PubMed Central

    Tajul, M. I.; Alam, M. M.; Hossain, S. M. M.; Naher, K.; Rafii, M. Y.; Latif, M. A.

    2013-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.). Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800000 plants ha−1 corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm) and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha−1) were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI), yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR) was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha−1 receiving 220 kg N ha−1, while relative growth rate (RGR) showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha−1). Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD) value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha−1 with 80,000 plants ha−1 had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob−1 that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha−1) and the maximum harvest index (HI) compared to the plants in other treatments. PMID:24163615

  16. Influence of plant population and nitrogen-fertilizer at various levels on growth and growth efficiency of maize.

    PubMed

    Tajul, M I; Alam, M M; Hossain, S M M; Naher, K; Rafii, M Y; Latif, M A

    2013-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.). Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800,000 plants ha⁻¹ corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm) and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha⁻¹) were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI), yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR) was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha⁻¹ receiving 220 kg N ha⁻¹, while relative growth rate (RGR) showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha⁻¹). Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD) value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha⁻¹ with 80,000 plants ha⁻¹ had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob⁻¹ that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha⁻¹) and the maximum harvest index (HI) compared to the plants in other treatments.

  17. Existence of Limit Cycles in the Solow Model with Delayed-Logistic Population Growth

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the existence and stability analysis of limit cycles in a delayed mathematical model for the economy growth. Specifically the Solow model is further improved by inserting the time delay into the logistic population growth rate. Moreover, by choosing the time delay as a bifurcation parameter, we prove that the system loses its stability and a Hopf bifurcation occurs when time delay passes through critical values. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out for supporting the analytical results. PMID:24592147

  18. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  19. Existence of limit cycles in the Solow model with delayed-logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Bianca, Carlo; Guerrini, Luca

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the existence and stability analysis of limit cycles in a delayed mathematical model for the economy growth. Specifically the Solow model is further improved by inserting the time delay into the logistic population growth rate. Moreover, by choosing the time delay as a bifurcation parameter, we prove that the system loses its stability and a Hopf bifurcation occurs when time delay passes through critical values. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out for supporting the analytical results.

  20. India in the Twenty-first Century: The Challenge of Population Growth. Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad, 1997 (India).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    La Fleur, Mary Ann

    This paper contains a course outline for a five-hour graduate class focusing on the issue of population in India. Students examine contributing factors to population growth, along with studying characteristics of, and efforts to, control population growth. The significance of ethnic diversity in India also is addressed. Group discussion and group…

  1. Using a population growth model to simulate response of Plodia interpunctella Hübner to temperature and diet

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Response to temperature and diet are major factors in the potential population growth of Plodia interpunctella Hübner, a damaging pest of many stored products. A population growth model was used to simulate population development on an optimal wheat-based diet and a sub-optimal diet of raisins at 20...

  2. Crowding out the Future: World Population Growth, U.S. Immigration, and Pressures on Natural Resources [and] Teacher's Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Robert W.; Mehlman, Ira H.

    Using text, graphics, satellite imagery, and data this publication with accompanying teacher's guide seeks to illustrate three main points concerning world population: (1) rapid world population growth is placing untenable immigration pressures on the United States; (2) immigration and U.S. population growth patterns generally are regionally…

  3. Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

  4. Multigenerational effect of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) on the individual fitness and population growth of Daphnia magna.

    PubMed

    Jeong, Tae-Yong; Yuk, Min-Su; Jeon, Junho; Kim, Sang Don

    2016-11-01

    We investigated the multigenerational effect of PFOS to individual fitness (e.g., body weight, acetylcholinesterase and glutathione S-transferase) and population growth (e.g., offspring number and time to first brood) of Daphnia magna during continuous and discontinuous exposures. The intrinsic rate of population growth was also calculated. In the continuous exposure, population growth-related adverse effects were detected during all test periods, and the adverse effect tended to be weaker in later generations. On the other hand, individual fitness-related adverse effects were observed from F1 not in F0 and deteriorated as the generation number increased. These results imply that individual fitness worsens although the population growth is restored in later generations. Upon discontinuous exposure, a few but significant adverse effects were observed during the non-exposure period and highest effects were detected during the re-exposure period. This encourages the study of different exposure scenarios, which may result in unexpected and higher PFOS toxicity. Consequently, this study confirms adverse effects of PFOS to Daphnia magna in multigenerational period and supports reasons for studies linking individual fitness changes to population dynamics and covering diverse exposure scenarios to evaluate the risk of PFOS in a water environment.

  5. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  6. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  7. Population growth rate and carrying capacity for springtails Folsomia candida exposed to ivermectin.

    PubMed

    Noël, Helen L; Hopkin, Steve P; Hutchinson, Thomas H; Williams, Tim D; Sibly, Richard M

    2006-04-01

    Forecasting the effects of stressors on the dynamics of natural populations requires assessment of the joint effects of a stressor and population density on the population response. The effects can be depicted as a contour map in which the population response, here assessed by population growth rate, varies with stress and density in the same way that the height of land above sea level varies with latitude and longitude. We present the first complete map of this type using as our model Folsomia candida exposed to five different concentrations of the widespread anthelmintic veterinary medicine ivermectin in replicated microcosm experiments lasting 49 days. The concentrations of ivermectin in yeast were 0.0, 6.8, 28.8, 66.4, and 210.0 mg/L wet weight. Increasing density and chemical concentration both significantly reduced the population growth rate of Folsomia candida, in part through effects on food consumption and fecundity. The interaction between density and ivermectin concentration was "less-than-additive," implying that at high density populations were able to compensate for the effects of the chemical. This result demonstrates that regulatory protocols carried out at low density (as in most past experiments) may seriously overestimate effects in the field, where densities are locally high and populations are resource limited (e.g., in feces of livestock treated with ivermectin).

  8. Economic stability and health status: evidence from East Asia before and after the 1990s economic crisis.

    PubMed

    Hopkins, Sandra

    2006-02-01

    The East Asian economies of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand suffered declines in their economic growth rates in 1997. The Indonesian and Thai government followed the World Bank prescription for adjustment, which included a cut-back in government spending at a time when there were significant job losses. Malaysia chose its own path to adjustment. Evidence presented in this paper shows that although the declines were short-lived that there was an impact on the health status measured by mortality rates for the populations of Indonesia and Thailand. There was little apparent impact on the health status of Malaysians. The lessons for other developing economies include the importance of social safety nets and the maintenance of government expenditure in minimising the impact of economic shocks on health.

  9. Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

    PubMed

    Ram, R

    1984-04-01

    The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

  10. Increase in the potential predictability of the Arctic Oscillation via intensified teleconnection with ENSO after the mid-1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Daehyun; Lee, Myong-In

    2016-11-01

    This study examines why the seasonal prediction skill of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has increased significantly since the mid-1990s in state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems in operation. This skill increase is primarily attributed to variability over the North Atlantic with an enhanced connection between the AO and the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The relationship between ENSO and AO depends primarily on low-frequency variability in the North Pacific driven by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, as represented by the Hawaiian sea level pressure (SLPHI) index. When the sign of the SLPHI index and that of the NINO3.4 index are out-of-phase (in-phase) with the variability center of ENSO shifted to the central Pacific (eastern Pacific), more intense (weaker) ENSO-AO teleconnection results. Linear barotropic model experiments with prescribed ENSO forcing and differing phase and intensity of SLPHI support the observed relationship in La Niña years, highlighting the important and independent role of the SLPHI variability as a modulator of the ENSO teleconnection to higher latitudes.

  11. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s

    PubMed Central

    Gibbs, H. K.; Ruesch, A. S.; Achard, F.; Clayton, M. K.; Holmgren, P.; Ramankutty, N.; Foley, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Global demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and fuel is now a major driver of cropland and pasture expansion across much of the developing world. Whether these new agricultural lands replace forests, degraded forests, or grasslands greatly influences the environmental consequences of expansion. Although the general pattern is known, there still is no definitive quantification of these land-cover changes. Here we analyze the rich, pan-tropical database of classified Landsat scenes created by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to examine pathways of agricultural expansion across the major tropical forest regions in the 1980s and 1990s and use this information to highlight the future land conversions that probably will be needed to meet mounting demand for agricultural products. Across the tropics, we find that between 1980 and 2000 more than 55% of new agricultural land came at the expense of intact forests, and another 28% came from disturbed forests. This study underscores the potential consequences of unabated agricultural expansion for forest conservation and carbon emissions. PMID:20807750

  12. Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

    PubMed

    Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

    2015-11-02

    A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

  13. To decentralize or not to decentralize, is that the question? Nicaraguan health policy under structural adjustment in the 1990s.

    PubMed

    Birn, A E; Zimmerman, S; Garfield, R

    2000-01-01

    Since 1990, health services decentralization in Nicaragua has been accompanied by structural adjustment, resulting in reduced equity and accountability. Sandinista efforts in the 1980s to extend access to primary care and reduce class and regional disparities in the delivery of health services were accompanied by modest attempts to increase local-level accountability and responsiveness. The escalation of war in the late 1980s transformed this effort into greater de facto decentralization. Over the past decade, Nicaragua has used decentralization policy to restructure the health system through health spending cuts and the favoring of curative over preventive services; privatization and the promotion of user fees; and confusion of lines of accountability. The authors analyze the 1990s' health policies in Nicaragua, paying particular attention to the blending of decentralization policy with the fiscal and administrative reforms advanced by the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other international agencies. They conclude that analyzing decentralization as a sector-specific reform that can be ameliorated through technocratic modifications is insufficient. A full understanding of the problems and possibilities of decentralization requires an analysis of the political and economic context that conditions these policies.

  14. Partners in Freedom: Contributions of the Langley Research Center to U.S. Military Aircraft of the 1990's

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chambers, Joseph R.

    2000-01-01

    Established in 1917 as the nation#s first civil aeronautics research laboratory under the National Advisory Commit-tee for Aeronautics (NACA), Langley was a small laboratory that solved the problems of flight for military and civil aviation. Throughout history, Langley has maintained a working partnership with the Department of Defense, U.S. industry, universities, and other government agencies to support the defense of the nation with research. During World War II, Langley directed virtually all of its workforce and facilities to research for military aircraft. Following the war, a balanced program of military and civil projects was undertaken. In some instances Langley research from one aircraft program helped solve a problem in another. At the conclusion of some programs, Langley obtained the research models for additional tests to learn more about previously unknown phenomena. The data also proved useful in later developmental programs. Many of the military aircraft in the U.S. inventory as of late 1999 were over 20 years old. Langley activities that contributed to the development of some of these aircraft began over 50 years prior. This publication documents the role, from early concept stages to problem solving for fleet aircraft, that Langley played in the military aircraft fleet of the United States for the 1990's.

  15. Threshold effect of growth rate on population variability of Escherichia coli cell lengths

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    A long-standing question in biology is the effect of growth on cell size. Here, we estimate the effect of Escherichia coli growth rate (r) on population cell size distributions by estimating the coefficient of variation of cell lengths (CVL) from image analysis of fixed cells in DIC microscopy. We find that the CVL is constant at growth rates less than one division per hour, whereas above this threshold, CVL increases with an increase in the growth rate. We hypothesize that stochastic inhibition of cell division owing to replication stalling by a RecA-dependent mechanism, combined with the growth rate threshold of multi-fork replication (according to Cooper and Helmstetter), could form the basis of such a threshold effect. We proceed to test our hypothesis by increasing the frequency of stochastic stalling of replication forks with hydroxyurea (HU) treatment and find that cell length variability increases only when the growth rate exceeds this threshold. The population effect is also reproduced in single-cell studies using agar-pad cultures and ‘mother machine’-based experiments to achieve synchrony. To test the role of RecA, critical for the repair of stalled replication forks, we examine the CVL of E. coli ΔrecA cells. We find cell length variability in the mutant to be greater than wild-type, a phenotype that is rescued by plasmid-based RecA expression. Additionally, we find that RecA-GFP protein recruitment to nucleoids is more frequent at growth rates exceeding the growth rate threshold and is further enhanced on HU treatment. Thus, we find growth rates greater than a threshold result in increased E. coli cell lengths in the population, and this effect is, at least in part, mediated by RecA recruitment to the nucleoid and stochastic inhibition of division. PMID:28386413

  16. Comparison of native and introduced flathead catfish populations in Alabama and Georgia: Growth, mortality, and management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.; Jolley, J.C.; Harrison, D.

    2006-01-01

    We compared growth of flathead catfish Pylodictis olivaris from two native populations in Alabama (Coosa and Tallapoosa rivers) and two introduced populations in Georgia (Ocmulgee and Satilla rivers). We also compared mortality rates and potential outcomes of various management regimes (minimum length limits [MLLs]) among the populations. Total length-log10(age) regression slopes for introduced fish were higher than those for native fish, and von Bertalanffy growth coefficients (K) were greater for introduced fish (Ocmulgee: 0.195; Satilla: 0.201) than for native individuals (Coosa: 0.057; Tallapoosa: 0.059). Therefore, introduced flathead catfish grew more rapidly than those in their native range. Mortality (instantaneous mortality rate, Z) was higher in the Satilla River population (Z = -0.602) than in the Ocmulgee River (Z = -0.227) and Coosa River (Z = -0.156) populations. However, fish in the Satilla River population had been introduced for only 10 years and presumably did not reach their theoretical maximum age, potentially biasing the mortality estimate for that population. Simulation of management regimes in Fishery Analyses and Simulation Tools software predicted that maximum biomass of flathead catfish in the Ocmulgee (1,668 kg) and Satilla (1,137 kg) rivers was substantially larger than that in the Coosa (873 kg) and Tallapoosa (768 kg) populations. However, increased exploitation rates in the Ocmulgee and Satilla River populations resulted in dramatic declines in overall biomass, especially at lower MLLs (254 and 356 mm, respectively). Therefore, in systems where introduced flathead catfish represent an important recreational fishery but have dramatically reduced the abundance of native fishes through predation, minimal protection is recommended. We contend that rapid growth of introduced flathead catfish has major implications for their management and the conservation of native fishes. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  17. Impacts of breeder loss on social structure, reproduction and population growth in a social canid.

    PubMed

    Borg, Bridget L; Brainerd, Scott M; Meier, Thomas J; Prugh, Laura R

    2015-01-01

    The importance of individuals to the dynamics of populations may depend on reproductive status, especially for species with complex social structure. Loss of reproductive individuals in socially complex species could disproportionately affect population dynamics by destabilizing social structure and reducing population growth. Alternatively, compensatory mechanisms such as rapid replacement of breeders may result in little disruption. The impact of breeder loss on the population dynamics of social species remains poorly understood. We evaluated the effect of breeder loss on social stability, recruitment and population growth of grey wolves (Canis lupus) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska using a 26-year dataset of 387 radiocollared wolves. Harvest of breeding wolves is a highly contentious conservation and management issue worldwide, with unknown population-level consequences. Breeder loss preceded 77% of cases (n = 53) of pack dissolution from 1986 to 2012. Packs were more likely to dissolve if a female or both breeders were lost and pack size was small. Harvest of breeders increased the probability of pack dissolution, likely because the timing of harvest coincided with the breeding season of wolves. Rates of denning and successful recruitment were uniformly high for packs that did not experience breeder loss; however, packs that lost breeders exhibited lower denning and recruitment rates. Breeder mortality and pack dissolution had no significant effects on immediate or longer term population dynamics. Our results indicate the importance of breeding individuals is context dependent. The impact of breeder loss on social group persistence, reproduction and population growth may be greatest when average group sizes are small and mortality occurs during the breeding season. This study highlights the importance of reproductive individuals in maintaining group cohesion in social species, but at the population level socially complex species may be resilient

  18. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  19. Sex differentiation in postnatal growth rate: a test in a wild boar population.

    PubMed

    Gaillard, J -M; Pontier, D; Brandt, S; Jullien, J-M; Allainé, D

    1992-05-01

    In wild boar individual growth rate is linear between 0.5 and 6 months after birth, based on successive body weight measurements. Contrary to expectation for a dimorphic and polygynous mammal like wild boar, no sexual dimorphism in growth rate could be detected between 0.5 and 6 months. We argue that high total maternal invesment in offspring due to large litter size and/or strong selection for early reproduction in this population with a short generation time could explain this absence of early differentiation in postnatal growth rate according to offspring sex.

  20. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  1. Theory of a microfluidic serial dilution bioreactor for growth of planktonic and biofilm populations.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Sze-Bi; Yang, Ya-Tang

    2016-04-01

    We present the theory of a microfluidic bioreactor with a two-compartment growth chamber and periodic serial dilution. In the model, coexisting planktonic and biofilm populations exchange by adsorption and detachment. The criteria for coexistence and global extinction are determined by stability analysis of the global extinction state. Stability analysis yields the operating diagram in terms of the dilution and removal ratios, constrained by the plumbing action of the bioreactor. The special case of equal uptake function and logistic growth is analytically solved and explicit growth curves are plotted. The presented theory is applicable to generic microfluidic bioreactors with discrete growth chambers and periodic dilution at discrete time points. Therefore, the theory is expected to assist the design of microfluidic devices for investigating microbial competition and microbial biofilm growth under serial dilution conditions.

  2. The Capacity for Life-Long Learning of College Seniors in the Mid-1980s to the Mid-1990s. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayek, John C.; Kuh, George D.

    This study compared college seniors' self-evaluation of skills considered important for lifelong learning from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. The study used data from the College Student Experiences Questionnaire (CSEQ), a national database begun in 1983 which includes over 200,000 student records from over 600 colleges and universities. An index…

  3. Higher Education into the 1990s: New Dimensions. To Commemorate the Jubilee of the Society for Research into Higher Education, 1964-1989.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ball, Christopher, Ed.; Eggins, Heather, Ed.

    This collection of essays aims to contribute to the understanding of the present predicament and future potential of higher education in the United Kingdom. It considers the new dimensions being introduced into higher education which are likely to have marked effects in the 1990s. It explores the tensions between the past and future, tradition and…

  4. What Have Peace Education Commission Papers Dealt with in the 1990s? Comments on a Guide to Five Conference Reports. Reprints and Miniprints, No. 857.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bjerstedt, Ake

    Five international conferences were held during the 1990s by the Peace Education Commission, a semi-independent subgroup of the International Peace Research Association. The conferences were held in Groningen (The Netherlands), Firenze (Italy), Kyoto (Japan), Budapest (Hungary), and Valletta (Malta). This document is a brief commentary on the…

  5. Children and Development in the 1990s: A UNICEF Sourcebook on the Occasion of the World Summit for Children (New York, New York, September 20-30, 1990).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This eight-part sourcebook provides background information, data, and references relating to child welfare issues throughout the world. The book is organized around a set of goals for children in the 1990s. An introductory section provides an overview of these goals and strategies for achieving them, and discusses infant and child mortality,…

  6. ARL: Setting the Agenda for the 1990s. Minutes of the [Membership] Meeting (112th, Oakland, California, May 5-6, 1988).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daval, Nicola, Ed.

    The first of two program sessions at this semiannual meeting addressed the agenda of the Association of Research Libraries (ARL) for the 1990s, and the report provides summaries of remarks by Elaine Sloan on the background; D. Kaye Gapen on a report from the Task Force on Review of the ARL Five-Year Plan; and Duane E. Webster on the ARL framework…

  7. Influence of climate regime shift on the interdecadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific Basin during the middle to late 1990s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Chi-Cherng; Wu, Yi-Kai; Li, Tim

    2016-10-01

    In this study, a new interpretation is proposed for the abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. We hypothesize that this abrupt change constitutes a part of the phenomenon of interdecadal change in TC activity in the Pacific Basin, including the WNP, western South Pacific (WSP), and eastern North Pacific. Our analysis revealed that the climate-regime shift (CRS) in the Pacific during the middle to late 1990s resulted in a La Niña-like mean state, which was responsible for the interdecadal change in TC activity in the late 1990s. Analyses of the TC genesis potential index and numerical experiments revealed that the decline in TC activity in both the WNP and WSP was primarily attributable to the increase of vertical wind shear in the central Pacific due to the La Niña-like associated cold sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, the La Niña-like associated warm SST in the western Pacific produced anomalous vertical transport of water vapor, increasing moisture levels in the mid-troposphere and TC activity in the western WNP. Furthermore, the CRS modified the mean TC genesis position and shifted the steering flow to the west, resulting in the increased frequency of TC landfalls in Taiwan, southeastern China, and northern Australia after the late 1990s.

  8. A Descriptive Analysis of Race/Ethnicity and Sex of Individuals Appearing on the Covers of "Sports Illustrated" in the 1990s

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lumpkin, Angela

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether the number of individuals pictured on the covers of Sports Illustrated during the 1990s was reflective of their levels of participation by sport, race/ethnicity, and sex. These descriptors of the individuals pictured on each cover between 1990 and 1999 were identified and analyzed. African Americans…

  9. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

    PubMed Central

    Abel, Guy J.; Barakat, Bilal; KC, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth. PMID:27911797

  10. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

    PubMed

    Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2016-12-13

    Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

  11. Population versus Customized Fetal Growth Norms and Adverse Outcomes in an Intrapartum Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Costantine, Maged M.; Lai, Yinglei; Bloom, Steven L.; Spong, Catherine Y.; Varner, Michael W.; Rouse, Dwight J.; Ramin, Susan M.; Caritis, Steve N.; Peaceman, Alan M.; Sorokin, Yoram; Sciscione, Anthony; Mercer, Brian M.; Thorp, John M.; Malone, Fergal D.; Harper, Margaret; Iams, Jay D.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To compare population versus customized fetal growth norms in identifying neonates at risk for adverse outcomes (APO) associated with small for gestational age (SGA). Study Design Secondary analysis of an intrapartum fetal pulse oximetry trial in nulliparous women at term. Birthweight percentiles were calculated using ethnicity- & gender-specific population norms and customized norms (Gardosi). Results 508 (9.9%) and 584 (11.3%) neonates were SGA by population (SGApop) and customized (SGAcust) norms. SGApop infants were significantly associated with a composite adverse neonatal outcome, neonatal intensive care admission, low fetal oxygen saturation and reduced risk of cesarean delivery; while both SGApop and SGAcust were associated with a 5-minute Apgar score < 4. The ability of customized and population birthweight percentiles in predicting APO was poor (12 out of 14 APOs had AUC <0.6). Conclusion In this intrapartum cohort, neither customized nor normalized-population norms adequately identify neonates at risk of APO related to SGA. PMID:22893556

  12. Population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus at constant temperatures and relative humidities

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Lepinotus reticulatus Enderlein. Part of this study assessed the effects of marking psocids using methylene blue, chalk powder, and fluorescent powder to differentiate nymphal stages d...

  13. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  14. Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in…

  15. Notes on the Age of Maternity, Population Growth and Family Structure in the Past

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mendels, Franklin F.

    1978-01-01

    Emphasizes that the age of marriage was effective in determining the birth rate and the rate of population growth; measures the magnitude of the effects of the age of marriage; and offers some observations on the relationships between age of marriage, age of male and female fertility, and family structure. (Author)

  16. A Precalculus Project on Exponential Population Growth and Linear Food Production.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonald, Michael A.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Discusses a precalculus project in which students create a model United Nations to present and discuss the long-term prognosis for individual countries given data on population growth and food production. Students compare exponential and linear functions to determine whether starvation will occur and prepare oral and written presentations of their…

  17. Population Growth. Understanding Global Change: Earth Science and Human Impacts. Global Change Instruction Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobsen, Judith E.

    The Global Change Instruction Program was designed by college professors to fill a need for interdisciplinary materials on the emerging science of global change. This instructional module concentrates on interactions between population growth and human activities that produce global change. The materials are designed for undergraduate students…

  18. Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

    PubMed Central

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

  19. Growth and competitive effects of Centaurea stoebe populations in response to simulated nitrogen deposition.

    PubMed

    He, Wei-Ming; Montesinos, Daniel; Thelen, Giles C; Callaway, Ragan M

    2012-01-01

    Increased resource availability can promote invasion by exotic plants, raising concerns over the potential effects of global increases in the deposition of nitrogen (N). It is poorly understood why increased N favors exotics over natives. Fast growth may be a general trait of good invaders and these species may have exceptional abilities to increase growth rates in response to N deposition. Additionally, invaders commonly displace locals, and thus may have inherently greater competitive abilities. The mean growth response of Centaurea stoebe to two N levels was significantly greater than that of North American (NA) species. Growth responses to N did not vary among C. stoebe populations or NA species. Without supplemental N, NA species were better competitors than C. stoebe, and C. stoebe populations varied in competitive effects. The competitive effects of C. stoebe populations increased with N whereas the competitive effects of NA species decreased, eliminating the overall competitive advantage demonstrated by NA species in soil without N added. These results suggest that simulated N deposition may enhance C. stoebe invasion through increasing its growth and relative competitive advantage, and also indicate the possibility of local adaptation in competitive effects across the introduced range of an invader.

  20. Relative tibia long bone growth in the Libben and Bt-5 prehistoric skeletal populations.

    PubMed

    Mensforth, R P

    1985-10-01

    Patterns of tibia long bone growth were examined for the Libben Late Woodland and Bt-5 Late Archaic hunter-gatherer skeletal groups. Subadults included in the analyses ranged in age from birth to 10 years. The primary goals were to identify potential differences in relative tibia growth and evaluate the extent to which such differences were concordant with demographic and epidemiological characteristics of the two groups. Methods used were designed to minimize the shortcomings of unknown age and sex of the skeleton, small sample sizes, and population differences in adult size attained. Results showed that Bt-5 preadolescent growth performance and health status in general were superior to those of the Libben group. Modifications in the rate and timing of Libben tibia growth occurred early and were primarily restricted to the weaning period. It is suggested that high levels of infectious disease experienced in the first years of life at Libben played a substantial role in the etiology of early long bone growth retardation, a greater prevalence of iron deficiency anemia in the childhood years, and elevated levels of subadult morbidity and mortality compared to Bt-5. Paleodemographic, paleoepidemiological, and modern comparative population data that support these inferences are discussed. No evidence of chronic malnutrition owing to dietary inadequacy was observed for either group. Alternatively, higher population density and greater degree of sedentism alone may have been responsible for elevated disease loads at Libben compared to low levels that were observed for the seasonally mobile semisedentary Bt-5 hunter-gatherers.

  1. Growth and Competitive Effects of Centaurea stoebe Populations in Response to Simulated Nitrogen Deposition

    PubMed Central

    He, Wei-Ming; Montesinos, Daniel; Thelen, Giles C.; Callaway, Ragan M.

    2012-01-01

    Increased resource availability can promote invasion by exotic plants, raising concerns over the potential effects of global increases in the deposition of nitrogen (N). It is poorly understood why increased N favors exotics over natives. Fast growth may be a general trait of good invaders and these species may have exceptional abilities to increase growth rates in response to N deposition. Additionally, invaders commonly displace locals, and thus may have inherently greater competitive abilities. The mean growth response of Centaurea stoebe to two N levels was significantly greater than that of North American (NA) species. Growth responses to N did not vary among C. stoebe populations or NA species. Without supplemental N, NA species were better competitors than C. stoebe, and C. stoebe populations varied in competitive effects. The competitive effects of C. stoebe populations increased with N whereas the competitive effects of NA species decreased, eliminating the overall competitive advantage demonstrated by NA species in soil without N added. These results suggest that simulated N deposition may enhance C. stoebe invasion through increasing its growth and relative competitive advantage, and also indicate the possibility of local adaptation in competitive effects across the introduced range of an invader. PMID:22563451

  2. Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.

    PubMed

    Howat, Peter; Stoneham, Melissa

    2011-12-01

    Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.

  3. Association with pathogenic bacteria affects life-history traits and population growth in Caenorhabditis elegans.

    PubMed

    Diaz, S Anaid; Mooring, Eric Q; Rens, Elisabeth G; Restif, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    Determining the relationship between individual life-history traits and population dynamics is an essential step to understand and predict natural selection. Model organisms that can be conveniently studied experimentally at both levels are invaluable to test the rich body of theoretical literature in this area. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, despite being a well-established workhorse in genetics, has only recently received attention from ecologists and evolutionary biologists, especially with respect to its association with pathogenic bacteria. In order to start filling the gap between the two areas, we conducted a series of experiments aiming at measuring life-history traits as well as population growth of C. elegans in response to three different bacterial strains: Escherichia coli OP50, Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1. Whereas previous studies had established that the latter two reduced the survival of nematodes feeding on them compared to E. coli OP50, we report for the first time an enhancement in reproductive success and population growth for worms feeding on S. enterica Typhimurium. Furthermore, we used an age-specific population dynamic model, parameterized using individual life-history assays, to successfully predict the growth of populations over three generations. This study paves the way for more detailed and quantitative experimental investigation of the ecology and evolution of C. elegans and the bacteria it interacts with, which could improve our understanding of the fate of opportunistic pathogens in the environment.

  4. Estimating individual contributions to population growth: evolutionary fitness in ecological time.

    PubMed

    Coulson, T; Benton, T G; Lundberg, P; Dall, S R X; Kendall, B E; Gaillard, J-M

    2006-03-07

    Ecological and evolutionary change is generated by variation in individual performance. Biologists have consequently long been interested in decomposing change measured at the population level into contributions from individuals, the traits they express and the alleles they carry. We present a novel method of estimating individual contributions to population growth and changes in distributions of quantitative traits and alleles. An individual's contribution to population growth is an individual's realized annual fitness. We demonstrate how the quantities we develop can be used to address a range of empirical questions, and provide an application to a detailed dataset of Soay sheep. The approach provides results that are consistent with those obtained using lifetime estimates of individual performance, yet is substantially more powerful as it allows lifetime performance to be decomposed into annual survival and fecundity contributions.

  5. The growth hormone receptor gene is associated with mandibular height in a Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Zhou, J; Lu, Y; Gao, X H; Chen, Y C; Lu, J J; Bai, Y X; Shen, Y; Wang, B K

    2005-11-01

    Genetic influences are important in the determination of mandibular morphology, and growth hormone receptor (GHR) is believed to have an important influence on the growth of craniofacial bone. In this study, we used quantitative trait locus methods to evaluate the relationship between craniofacial morphology and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in GHR in an unselected healthy Chinese population. We systematically screened the 10 exons and nearby introns of GHR and identified 6 SNPs. Using 4 SNPs as markers, we studied the relationships between genotypes and craniofacial linear measurements. Individuals with the genotype CC of polymorphism I526L had a significantly greater mandibular ramus length (condylion-gonion/ articulare-gonion) than those with genotype AC or AA. Haplotype analysis showed that there were also significant differences between the long and short mandibular height groups in an extreme population. Our results indicate that the GHR gene polymorphism I526L is associated with mandibular height in the Chinese population.

  6. Demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator.

    PubMed Central

    Hone, Jim; Sibly, Richard M

    2002-01-01

    Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance. PMID:12396509

  7. Population growth of Nassella trichotoma in grasslands in New Zealand slower today than in the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamoureaux, Shona L.; Bourdôt, Graeme W.; Saville, David J.

    2011-09-01

    Nassella trichotoma established in modified tussock-grasslands in New Zealand from about 1860. Management programmes since 1946 have reduced populations to levels no longer impacting pastoral production. Optimising future management requires knowledge of the trajectory of population growth and its regulating demographic processes. To that end, four long-term field experiments were conducted. Net reproductive rate varied from 1.021 to 1.237 year -1 and growth in plant basal diameter from 8.1 to 16.6 mm year -1. The probability of flowering increased with basal diameter and was essentially unity above 50 mm diameter. Populations grubbed annually declined abruptly but recruitment was unaffected and extinction did not occur. Of seeds sown into disturbed and intact pastures, 0-51% produced seedlings and more arose on sunny slopes and from disturbed than intact pasture. Death rates were high; 7 years after sowing, surviving plants represented only 0-9% of the seed sown. Seeds buried 25 mm deep in the pasture litter on two occasions declined in viability at rates of 74 and 89% in the first year and first three months respectively and 26 and 0% year -1 thereafter. Seed production plant -1 (square root scale) increased linearly with plant basal diameter; for example, plants of 11 and 100 mm diameter are predicted to produce 0 and 11,092 spikelets (each with one seed) respectively. We estimate that a N. trichotoma population today will, in the absence of management, take 210 years to increase to 90% of its carrying capacity supporting the hypothesis that population growth in this species is slower than occurred historically. We show that the rates of some demographic processes may be much lower than in the past and suggest this is due to more competitive vegetation resulting from improved management. The size-dependence of many processes supports the need for a size-structured model to explain population growth in this weed.

  8. Comparing growth patterns among field populations of cereal aphids reveals factors limiting their maximum abundance.

    PubMed

    Honek, A; Jarosik, V; Dixon, A F G

    2006-06-01

    Cereal stands in central Europe are commonly infested with three species of aphids that may become serious pests. With increasing abundance, the proportion of a particular species in the total aphid population may remain constant, suggesting a density-independent exponential growth, or the proportion can change, suggesting density-dependent constraints on growth. The constraints that affect particular species, and thus their relative abundance, were studied. The proportionality between maximum abundances of the cereal aphids was studied using a 10-year census of the numbers of aphids infesting 268 winter wheat plots. For two species their abundance on leaves and ears was compared. With increasing aphid density the maximum abundance of Rhopalosiphum padi (Linnaeus) remained proportional, but not that of Sitobion avenae (Fabricius), which was constrained by the smaller surface area of ears compared to leaves. There was no evidence of inter-specific competition. Maximum abundance of R. padi and Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker) on leaves did not change proportionally as the proportion of M. dirhodum decreased with increasing overall aphid density. This decrease was probably caused by the restricted distribution of M. dirhodum, which is confined to leaves, where space is limiting. No change in proportion between populations was detected when the average densities were below 0.54 aphids per leaf or ear. Non-proportional relationships between aphid populations appeared to be due to spatial constraints, acting upon the more abundant population. Detecting the limitation of population growth can help with the assessment of when density-independent exponential growth is limited by density-dependent factors. This information may help in the development of models of cereal aphid population dynamics.

  9. A divergent pattern of the sex difference in life expectancy: Sweden and Japan, early 1970s-late 1990s.

    PubMed

    Trovato, Frank; Heyen, Nils B

    2003-01-01

    For most of the 20th century the sex gap in life expectancy in the industrialized countries has widened in favor of women. By the early 1980s a reversal in the long-term pattern of this differential had occurred in some countries, where it reached a maximum and thereafter followed a declining trend. Of particular interest to the present investigation is the anomalous experience of Japan, where unlike other high-income countries the female advantage in life expectancy has been expanding. We contrast the case of Japan with that of Sweden, where, like many other high-income nations, the sex differential in longevity has been narrowing in recent years. We observe that in Sweden, until the early 1980s, the sex gap in life expectancy (female-male) exceeded that of Japan; but this situation reversed in subsequent periods, when the Swedish differential narrowed and that of Japan widened. A decomposition analysis indicates that these divergent patterns since 1980 have resulted mainly from larger than expected reductions in male mortality in Sweden due to heart disease and from accidents and violence, lung cancer and "other" cancers. In Japan, death rates for men and women from heart disease--which is a leading cause of death--have tended to decline more or less at the same pace since the early 1980s; and with regard to lung cancer, and "other" neoplasms, male death rates in Japan have been rising while those of women have either declined or risen more slowly. Moreover, during the 1990s, male and female suicide rates rose in Japan, but the rates for men went up faster. Altogether, the net effect of these divergent mortality trends for men and women in Japan underlie much of the observed widening of its sex differential in longevity in recent years.

  10. Land-Use Change and Carbon Flux Between 1970s and 1990s in Central Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico.

    PubMed

    DE; CAIRNS; HAGGERTY; RAMÍREZ-MARCIAL; OCHOA-GAONA; MENDOZA-VEGA; GONZÁLEZ-ESPINOSA; MARCH-MIFSUT

    1999-04-01

    / We present results of a study in an intensively impacted and highly fragmented landscape in which we apply field-measured carbon (C) density values to land-use/land-cover (LU/LC) statistics to estimate the flux of C between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere from the 1970s and 1990s. Carbon densities were assigned to common LU/LC classes on vegetation maps produced by Mexican governmental organizations and, by differencing areas and C pools, net C flux was calculated from the central highlands of Chiapas, Mexico, during a 16-year period. The total area of closed forests was reduced by half while degraded and fragmented forests expanded 56% and cultivated land and pasture areas increased by 8% and 30%, respectively. Total mean C densities ranged from a high of 504 tons C/ha in the oak and evergreen cloud forests class to a low of 147 tons C/ha in the pasture class. The differences in total C densities among the various LU/LC classes were due to changes in biomass while soil organic matter C remained similar. We estimate that a total of 19.99 thick similar 10(6) tons C were released to the atmosphere during the period of time covered by our study, equal to approximately 34% of the 1975 vegetation C pool. The Chiapas highlands, while comprising just 0.3% of Mexico's surface area, contributed 3% of the net national C emissions. KEY WORDS: Land use; Land cover; Carbon flux; Forests; Chiapas highlands; Mexico

  11. Rapid Ice Loss at Vatnajokull,Iceland Since Late 1990s Constrained by Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, W.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.; Wdowinski, S.

    2012-12-01

    Synthetic aperture radar interferometry time series is applied over Vatnajokull, Iceland by using 15 years ERS data. Ice loss at Vatnajokull accelerates since late 1990s especially after 21th century. Clear uplift signal due to ice mass loss is detected. The rebound signal is generally linear and increases a little bit after 2000. The relative annual velocity (GPS station 7485 as reference) is about 12 mm/yr at the ice cap edge, which matches the previous studies using GPS. The standard deviation compared to 11 GPS stations in this area is about 2 mm/yr. A relative-value modeling method ignoring the effect of viscous flow is chosen assuming elastic half space earth. The final ice loss estimation - 83 cm/yr - matches the climatology model with ground observations. Small Baseline Subsets is applied for time series analysis. Orbit error coupling with long wavelength phase trend due to horizontal plate motion is removed based on a second polynomial model. For simplicity, we do not consider atmospheric delay in this area because of no complex topography and small-scale turbulence is eliminated well after long-term average when calculating the annual mean velocity. Some unwrapping error still exits because of low coherence. Other uncertainties can be the basic assumption of ice loss pattern and spatial variation of the elastic parameters. It is the first time we apply InSAR time series for ice mass balance study and provide detailed error and uncertainty analysis. The successful of this application proves InSAR as an option for mass balance study and it is also important for validation of different ice loss estimation techniques.

  12. [The population growth in the city of Beijing and our present tasks (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Qian, L J; Xu, B; Huang, S Y

    1980-04-01

    Concern for the rapid population growth since 1949 of China's second largest city, Beijing, is discussed in terms of population control, migration, and rises in the productive development of the city. From 1949 to 1963 the natural rate of population increased from 7.5 to 35.3%; however, after the introduction of a birth control program in 1971, the natural increase of population declined to 4.02% in 1977. From 1949-1978, the average birth rate was 145,000/year while the average death rate was 46,500/year, leaving the annual average increase in population at 98,000. The natural population increased by 2,340,000 from 1949-1978. The massive population growth since 1949 affected the economic development of the city as well as the country. Cultivated land near Beijing increased from 1949-1952, but because of urban development the land for cultivation decreased by 1,527,000 market acres from that available in 1949 (7,965,000 market acres). Population density increased from 430 persons/ square kilometer in 1962 to 506 persons/ square kilometer in 1978. From 1953 to 1978, production and consumption rates fluctuated with a net balance of only 2020 million catties in the 26 years, causing the need for products to be imported from other areas of the country. Unemployment is exacerbated by the lack of jobs and increasing numbers of people. Transportation problems also have developed. New efforts are being made to inform people of population control by the Beijing Population Association begun in 1979, because Beijing's population will continue to increase until 1989 due to the baby boom years during the fifties which created a 2nd boom in the late 1970s as well as the lack of education on population control. Other programs are being developed to, 1) educate people on economical measures of reducing the population, 2) promote governmental departments to improve birth control programs by means of social security services, child health agencies, and nursing schools, 3

  13. The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

    PubMed

    Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

    2013-11-01

    1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to

  14. Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

    PubMed

    Paiva, P D

    1997-01-01

    For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

  15. Population ecology of the gulf ribbed mussel across a salinity gradient: recruitment, growth and density

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Honig, Aaron; Supan, John; LaPeyre, Megan K.

    2015-01-01

    Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and promoting productivity. As such, changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences. Recruitment, growth, mortality, population size structure and density of the gulf coast ribbed mussel, Geukensia granosissima, were examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana. Data were collected along 100-m transects at interior and edge marsh plots located at duplicate sites in upper (salinity ~4 psu), central (salinity ~8 psu) and lower (salinity ~15 psu) Barataria Bay, Louisiana, U.S.A. Growth, mortality and recruitment were measured in established plots from April through November 2012. Mussel densities were greatest within the middle bay (salinity ~8) regardless of flooding regime, but strongly associated with highest stem densities of Juncus roemerianus vegetation. Mussel recruitment, growth, size and survival were significantly higher at mid and high salinity marsh edge sites as compared to all interior marsh and low salinity sites. The observed patterns of density, growth and mortality in Barataria Bay may reflect detrital food resource availability, host vegetation community distribution along the salinity gradient, salinity tolerance of the mussel, and reduced predation at higher salinity edge sites.

  16. Endogenous growth of population and income depending on resource and knowledge.

    PubMed

    Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G; Luptacik, M; Milik, A; Wirl, F; Hof, F; Lutz, W

    1999-01-01

    This study focuses on the dynamic, endogenous, nonlinear interactions between the economy, population growth and the environment. Literature on endogenous growth theory was reviewed and the 3-sector demoeconomic model was provided as the analytical framework for the study of sustainable development through the integration of population growth, resource use and economic growth. The model is described in such a way that the labor force is considered as a free migrating variable among three different kinds of employment: the primary sector, which harvests a renewable resource, the secondary or industrial sector, and the tertiary sector, which is responsible for the accumulation of the stock that represents a public good for all three sectors. Presented in this paper is a nontechnical outline of the model that describes the economic, demographic, and environmental interactions considered. Also given are dynamics, market equilibrium and dynamic feedback rules. Furthermore, numerical analysis of the model quantifying the resulting time paths of the variables involved is included. The dynamics are simply the outcome of the nonlinear interactions of the demographic, economic and environmental modules. Numerical studies have also shown that the system variables move with different velocity. Technology and population can generally be regarded as slow moving variables by comparison with resources.

  17. Beaver-mediated methane emission: The effects of population growth in Eurasia and the Americas.

    PubMed

    Whitfield, Colin J; Baulch, Helen M; Chun, Kwok P; Westbrook, Cherie J

    2015-02-01

    Globally, greenhouse gas budgets are dominated by natural sources, and aquatic ecosystems are a prominent source of methane (CH(4)) to the atmosphere. Beaver (Castor canadensis and Castor fiber) populations have experienced human-driven change, and CH(4) emissions associated with their habitat remain uncertain. This study reports the effect of near extinction and recovery of beavers globally on aquatic CH4 emissions and habitat. Resurgence of native beaver populations and their introduction in other regions accounts for emission of 0.18-0.80 Tg CH(4) year(-1) (year 2000). This flux is approximately 200 times larger than emissions from the same systems (ponds and flowing waters that became ponds) circa 1900. Beaver population recovery was estimated to have led to the creation of 9500-42 000 km(2) of ponded water, and increased riparian interface length of >200 000 km. Continued range expansion and population growth in South America and Europe could further increase CH(4) emissions.

  18. Native insect herbivory limits population growth rate of a non-native thistle.

    PubMed

    Eckberg, James O; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Louda, Svata M

    2014-05-01

    The influence of native fauna on non-native plant population growth, size, and distribution is not well documented. Previous studies have shown that native insects associated with tall thistle (Cirsium altissimum) also feed on the leaves, stems, and flower heads of the Eurasian congener C. vulgare, thus limiting individual plant performance. In this study, we tested the effects of insect herbivores on the population growth rate of C. vulgare. We experimentally initiated invasions by adding seeds at four unoccupied grassland sites in eastern Nebraska, USA, and recorded plant establishment, survival, and reproduction. Cumulative foliage and floral herbivory reduced C. vulgare seedling density, and prevented almost any reproduction by C. vulgare in half the sites. The matrix model we constructed showed that this herbivory resulted in a reduction of the asymptotic population growth rate (λ), from an 88% annual increase to a 54% annual decline. These results provide strong support for the hypothesis that indigenous herbivores limit population invasion of this non-native plant species into otherwise suitable grassland habitat.

  19. Trans-generational influences of sulfamethoxazole on lifespan, reproduction and population growth of Caenorhabditis elegans.

    PubMed

    Yu, Zhenyang; Sun, Guohua; Liu, Yanjun; Yin, Daqiang; Zhang, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Trans-generational effects are increasingly used to indicate long-term influences of environmental pollutants. However, such studies can be complex and yield inconclusive results. In this study, the trans-generational effects of sulfamethoxazole (SMX) on Caenorhabditis elegans on lifespan, reproduction and population growth were tested for 7 consecutive generations, which included gestating generation (F0), embryo-exposed generation (F1), germline-exposed generation (F2), the first non-exposed generation (F3) and the three following generations (F4-F6). Results showed that lifespan was significantly affected by embryo exposure (F1) at 400µm SMX with a value as low as 47% of the control. The reproduction (a total brood size as 49% of the control) and population growth (81% of the control) were significantly affected in germline exposure (F2). Lifespan and reproduction were severely inhibited in non-exposed generations, confirming the real trans-generational effects. Notably, initial reproduction and reproduction duration showed opposite generation-related changes, indicating their interplay in the overall brood size. The population growth rate was well correlated with median lethal time, brood size and initial reproduction, which indicated that the population would increase when the nematodes lived longer and reproduced more offspring within shorter duration.

  20. [Some fundamental problems concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development].

    PubMed

    Huang, Z

    1983-05-29

    The population growth rate is closely related to the quality of economic life, available funds for individual and social consumption, national income to be used for reproduction, and the labor employment situation. Since liberation, socialism has not been able to show its superiority, mainly because of China's large population figure, low economic productivity, low national income, and poor management in the relationship between consumption and accumulation. In order to solve these problems, we need to adequately control the pace of the population growth and match the rate of population growth with the pace of economic development. A way to increase national income is through saving and avoiding unnecessary waste. Social expenditures on education, culture, science, health and medical care, social welfare, and investment in the promotion of people's wisdom should all be increased. Meanwhile, the living standard of the people needs to be raised, and capital accumulation should also be managed so that funds will be available for industrial and economic enterprises. Existing inefficient production enterprises should be properly reorganized so that full employment may be achieved. In this way, the national economy will have more prosperity, and the people will benefit more from the Socialist policy.

  1. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    PubMed

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  2. Trans-theta logistics: a new family of population growth sigmoid functions.

    PubMed

    Kozusko, F; Bourdeau, M

    2011-12-01

    Sigmoid functions have been applied in many areas to model self limited population growth. The most popular functions; General Logistic (GL), General von Bertalanffy (GV), and Gompertz (G), comprise a family of functions called Theta Logistic ([Formula: see text] L). Previously, we introduced a simple model of tumor cell population dynamics which provided a unifying foundation for these functions. In the model the total population (N) is divided into reproducing (P) and non-reproducing/quiescent (Q) sub-populations. The modes of the rate of change of ratio P/N was shown to produce GL, GV or G growth. We now generalize the population dynamics model and extend the possible modes of the P/N rate of change. We produce a new family of sigmoid growth functions, Trans-General Logistic (TGL), Trans-General von Bertalanffy (TGV) and Trans-Gompertz (TG)), which as a group we have named Trans-Theta Logistic (T [Formula: see text] L) since they exist when the [Formula: see text] L are translated from a two parameter into a three parameter phase space. Additionally, the model produces a new trigonometric based sigmoid (TS). The [Formula: see text] L sigmoids have an inflection point size fixed by a single parameter and an inflection age fixed by both of the defining parameters. T [Formula: see text] L and TS sigmoids have an inflection point size defined by two parameters in bounding relationships and inflection point age defined by three parameters (two bounded). While the Theta Logistic sigmoids provided flexibility in defining the inflection point size, the Trans-Theta Logistic sigmoids provide flexibility in defining the inflection point size and age. By matching the slopes at the inflection points we compare the range of values of inflection point age for T [Formula: see text] L versus [Formula: see text] L for model growth curves.

  3. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility

    PubMed Central

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

  4. Race and space in the 1990s: changes in the geographic scale of racial residential segregation, 1990-2000.

    PubMed

    Reardon, Sean F; Farrell, Chad R; Matthews, Stephen A; O'Sullivan, David; Bischoff, Kendra; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2009-03-01

    We use newly developed methods of measuring spatial segregation across a range of spatial scales to assess changes in racial residential segregation patterns in the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas from 1990 to 2000. Our results point to three notable trends in segregation from 1990 to 2000: (1) Hispanic-white and Asian-white segregation levels increased at both micro- and macro-scales; (2) black-white segregation declined at a micro-scale, but was unchanged at a macro-scale; and (3) for all three racial groups and for almost all metropolitan areas, macro-scale segregation accounted for more of the total metropolitan area segregation in 2000 than in 1990. Our examination of the variation in these trends among the metropolitan areas suggests that Hispanic-white and Asian-white segregation changes have been driven largely by increases in macro-scale segregation resulting from the rapid growth of the Hispanic and Asian populations in central cities. The changes in black-white segregation, in contrast, appear to be driven by the continuation of a 30-year trend in declining micro-segregation, coupled with persistent and largely stable patterns of macro-segregation.

  5. Living bacteria rheology: population growth, aggregation patterns, and collective behavior under different shear flows.

    PubMed

    Patrício, P; Almeida, P L; Portela, R; Sobral, R G; Grilo, I R; Cidade, T; Leal, C R

    2014-08-01

    The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology-in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus-strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant, RUSAL9-were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of the cultures of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the cultures of the two strains follows different and rich behaviors, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony-forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL culture keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain culture decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time, and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviors, which were observed to be shear-stress-dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL culture, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviors whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant culture have complex behaviors, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. Nevertheless, these behaviors reflect the bacteria growth stage.

  6. The effects of population density on juvenile growth rate in white-tailed deer.

    PubMed

    Barr, Brannon; Wolverton, Steve

    2014-10-01

    Animal body size is driven by habitat quality, food availability, and nutrition. Adult size can relate to birth weight, to length of the ontogenetic growth period, and/or to the rate of growth. Data requirements are high for studying these growth mechanisms, but large datasets exist for some game species. In North America, large harvest datasets exist for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), but such data are collected under a variety of conditions and are generally dismissed for ecological research beyond local population and habitat management. We contend that such data are useful for studying the ecology of white-tailed deer growth and body size when analyzed at ordinal scale. In this paper, we test the response of growth rate to food availability by fitting a logarithmic equation that estimates growth rate only to harvest data from Fort Hood, Texas, and track changes in growth rate over time. Results of this ordinal scale model are compared to previously published models that include additional parameters, such as birth weight and adult weight. It is shown that body size responds to food availability by variation in growth rate. Models that estimate multiple parameters may not work with harvest data because they are prone to error, which renders estimates from complex models too variable to detect interannual changes in growth rate that this ordinal scale model captures. This model can be applied to harvest data, from which inferences about factors that influence animal growth and body size (e.g., habitat quality and nutritional availability) can be drawn.

  7. The Effects of Population Density on Juvenile Growth Rate in White-Tailed Deer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barr, Brannon; Wolverton, Steve

    2014-10-01

    Animal body size is driven by habitat quality, food availability, and nutrition. Adult size can relate to birth weight, to length of the ontogenetic growth period, and/or to the rate of growth. Data requirements are high for studying these growth mechanisms, but large datasets exist for some game species. In North America, large harvest datasets exist for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus), but such data are collected under a variety of conditions and are generally dismissed for ecological research beyond local population and habitat management. We contend that such data are useful for studying the ecology of white-tailed deer growth and body size when analyzed at ordinal scale. In this paper, we test the response of growth rate to food availability by fitting a logarithmic equation that estimates growth rate only to harvest data from Fort Hood, Texas, and track changes in growth rate over time. Results of this ordinal scale model are compared to previously published models that include additional parameters, such as birth weight and adult weight. It is shown that body size responds to food availability by variation in growth rate. Models that estimate multiple parameters may not work with harvest data because they are prone to error, which renders estimates from complex models too variable to detect interannual changes in growth rate that this ordinal scale model captures. This model can be applied to harvest data, from which inferences about factors that influence animal growth and body size (e.g., habitat quality and nutritional availability) can be drawn.

  8. Measuring selection in human populations using the growth rate per generation.

    PubMed

    Ewbank, Douglas

    2016-04-19

    Estimates of the speed of evolution between generations depend on the association between individual traits and a measure of fitness. The two most frequently used measures of fitness are the net reproduction rate and the 1-year growth factor implied by the fertility and mortality rates. Results based on the two lead to very different results. The reason is that the 1-year growth factor is not a measure of change between generations. Therefore, studies of changes between generations should use the amount of growth over the length of a generation. This is especially important for studies of human populations because of the long length of generation. In addition, estimates based on a single year's growth are overly sensitive to data on individuals who fail to reproduce. The effects of using a generational measure are demonstrated using data from Kenya and Ukraine. These results demonstrate that using a 1-year growth rate to measure fitness leads to estimates that understate the rate at which evolution changes the characteristics of a human population.

  9. Mammalian Herbivores Alter the Population Growth and Spatial Establishment of an Early-Establishing Grassland Species.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Lauren L; Danielson, Brent J; Harpole, W Stanley

    2016-01-01

    Plant-herbivore interactions influence the establishment context of plant species, as herbivores alter the community context in which individual species establish, and the spatial relationship between individuals and their source population as plants invade. This relationship can be described using an establishment kernel, which takes into account movement through seed dispersal, and subsequent establishment of adults. Mammalian herbivores are hypothesized to influence plant population growth and establishment through a combination of consumption of seeds and seedlings, and movement of seeds. While the movement abilities of plants are well known, we have very few empirical mechanistic tests of how biotic factors like mammalian herbivores influence this spread potential. As herbivores of all sizes are abundant on the landscape, we asked the question, how do mammalian herbivores influence the population growth, spatial establishment, and the community establishment context of an early-recruiting native prairie legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata? We planted C. fasciculata in source populations within a four-acre tallgrass prairie restoration in plots with and without herbivores, and monitored its establishment with respect to distance from the source populations. We found that herbivores decreased population growth, and decreased the mean and range establishment distance. Additionally, C. fasciculata established more often without herbivores, and when surrounded by weedy, annual species. Our results provide insight into how the interactions between plants and herbivores can alter the spatial dynamics of developing plant communities, which is vital for colonization and range spread with fragmentation and climate change. Mammalian herbivores have the potential to both slow rates of establishment, but also determine the types of plant communities that surround invading species. Therefore, it is essential to consider the herbivore community when attempting to restore

  10. Mammalian Herbivores Alter the Population Growth and Spatial Establishment of an Early-Establishing Grassland Species

    PubMed Central

    Sullivan, Lauren L.; Danielson, Brent J.; Harpole, W. Stanley

    2016-01-01

    Plant-herbivore interactions influence the establishment context of plant species, as herbivores alter the community context in which individual species establish, and the spatial relationship between individuals and their source population as plants invade. This relationship can be described using an establishment kernel, which takes into account movement through seed dispersal, and subsequent establishment of adults. Mammalian herbivores are hypothesized to influence plant population growth and establishment through a combination of consumption of seeds and seedlings, and movement of seeds. While the movement abilities of plants are well known, we have very few empirical mechanistic tests of how biotic factors like mammalian herbivores influence this spread potential. As herbivores of all sizes are abundant on the landscape, we asked the question, how do mammalian herbivores influence the population growth, spatial establishment, and the community establishment context of an early-recruiting native prairie legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata? We planted C. fasciculata in source populations within a four-acre tallgrass prairie restoration in plots with and without herbivores, and monitored its establishment with respect to distance from the source populations. We found that herbivores decreased population growth, and decreased the mean and range establishment distance. Additionally, C. fasciculata established more often without herbivores, and when surrounded by weedy, annual species. Our results provide insight into how the interactions between plants and herbivores can alter the spatial dynamics of developing plant communities, which is vital for colonization and range spread with fragmentation and climate change. Mammalian herbivores have the potential to both slow rates of establishment, but also determine the types of plant communities that surround invading species. Therefore, it is essential to consider the herbivore community when attempting to restore

  11. Body downsizing caused by non-consumptive social stress severely depresses population growth rate.

    PubMed

    Edeline, Eric; Haugen, Thrond O; Weltzien, Finn-Arne; Claessen, David; Winfield, Ian J; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

    2010-03-22

    Chronic social stress diverts energy away from growth, reproduction and immunity, and is thus a potential driver of population dynamics. However, the effects of social stress on demographic density dependence remain largely overlooked in ecological theory. Here we combine behavioural experiments, physiology and population modelling to show in a top predator (pike Esox lucius) that social stress alone may be a primary driver of demographic density dependence. Doubling pike density in experimental ponds under controlled prey availability did not significantly change prey intake by pike (i.e. did not significantly change interference or exploitative competition), but induced a neuroendocrine stress response reflecting a size-dependent dominance hierarchy, depressed pike energetic status and lowered pike body growth rate by 23 per cent. Assuming fixed size-dependent survival and fecundity functions parameterized for the Windermere (UK) pike population, stress-induced smaller body size shifts age-specific survival rates and lowers age-specific fecundity, which in Leslie matrices projects into reduced population rate of increase (lambda) by 37-56%. Our models also predict that social stress flattens elasticity profiles of lambda to age-specific survival and fecundity, thus making population persistence more dependent on old individuals. Our results suggest that accounting for non-consumptive social stress from competitors and predators is necessary to accurately understand, predict and manage food-web dynamics.

  12. The evolution of paternal care can lead to population growth in artificial societies.

    PubMed

    Salgado, Mauricio

    2015-09-07

    Evolutionary models of paternal care predict that when female reproductive effort is higher than male reproductive effort, selection might favour the emergence of unconditional male cooperation towards females, even when the latter group does not reciprocate. However, previous models have assumed constant population sizes, so the ecology of interacting individuals and its effects on population dynamics have been neglected. This paper reports an agent-based model that incorporates ecological dynamics into evolutionary game dynamics by allowing populations to vary. As previous models demonstrate, paternal care only evolves when female reproductive effort is higher than that of males, and the optimal strategy for females is to exploit male unconditional cooperation. The model also shows that evolution of this behaviour drives some simulations towards regimes of population growth. Thanks to the evolution of paternal care, females׳ inter-birth intervals are shortened and causing them to reproduce faster. Thus, it is suggested that the evolution of paternal care in species with differential reproductive effort between sexes could be associated to population growth. Nevertheless, the modelled evolutionary dynamics are stochastic, so differences in reproductive effort are necessary but not sufficient conditions for the evolution of paternal care.

  13. Effects of population increase on cui-ui growth and maturation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scoppettone, G.G.; Rissler, P.H.

    2007-01-01

    Cui-ui Chasmistes cujus is endemic to Pyramid Lake, Nevada. The cui-ui population declined during much of the 20th century as a result of water diversion and the formation of a shallow and virtually impassable delta at the mouth of the Truckee River, its spawning habitat. The population increased more than 10-fold to more than 1 million adults after access to the river was restored, creating a period of relatively higher density. This change presented the opportunity to test intraspecific density effects on cui-ui age and length at maturity and on growth. We also compared the year-class structure of the adult population before and after improved access. At low density, cui-ui mean age at maturation was 9.2 years for males and 9.6 for females; at high density, it was significantly higher: 11.8 years for males and 12.0 for females. There was no significant change in mean fork length at maturity related to population increase. Growth patterns differed between high and low density, the low-density fish growing faster than high-density fish before their respective mean age of maturity; past their mean age at maturity, high-density fish grew significantly faster than low-density fish. Fish in both density periods reached similar lengths by about 19-20 years of age. Year-class structure for both density periods consisted of strong year-classes, which predominated the adult population for several years.

  14. Body downsizing caused by non-consumptive social stress severely depresses population growth rate

    PubMed Central

    Edeline, Eric; Haugen, Thrond O.; Weltzien, Finn-Arne; Claessen, David; Winfield, Ian J.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn

    2010-01-01

    Chronic social stress diverts energy away from growth, reproduction and immunity, and is thus a potential driver of population dynamics. However, the effects of social stress on demographic density dependence remain largely overlooked in ecological theory. Here we combine behavioural experiments, physiology and population modelling to show in a top predator (pike Esox lucius) that social stress alone may be a primary driver of demographic density dependence. Doubling pike density in experimental ponds under controlled prey availability did not significantly change prey intake by pike (i.e. did not significantly change interference or exploitative competition), but induced a neuroendocrine stress response reflecting a size-dependent dominance hierarchy, depressed pike energetic status and lowered pike body growth rate by 23 per cent. Assuming fixed size-dependent survival and fecundity functions parameterized for the Windermere (UK) pike population, stress-induced smaller body size shifts age-specific survival rates and lowers age-specific fecundity, which in Leslie matrices projects into reduced population rate of increase (λ) by 37–56%. Our models also predict that social stress flattens elasticity profiles of λ to age-specific survival and fecundity, thus making population persistence more dependent on old individuals. Our results suggest that accounting for non-consumptive social stress from competitors and predators is necessary to accurately understand, predict and manage food-web dynamics. PMID:19923130

  15. The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

    PubMed Central

    Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Hu, Linlin; Liu, Yuanli; Mahal, Ajay; Yip, Winnie

    2010-01-01

    We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980. PMID:20419074

  16. The factors of urban population growth: net inmigration versus natural increase.

    PubMed

    Ledent, J

    1982-10-01

    "As a country evolves from a traditional to an advanced society, the part of urban growth that is due to net inmigration follows a simple pattern, which can be described by an inverted U-shaped curve: it first increases, then passes through a maximum, and decreases thereafter. This hypothesis is confirmed by quantitative analysis using time-series and cross-section data. The analysis suggests that in the second half of this century natural increase often provides a slightly higher contribution to urban population growth than net inmigration." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )

  17. Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

    PubMed

    Bacaër, Nicolas

    2009-10-01

    This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

  18. [Relationship between growth potential of pine, population density of Monochamus alternatus and pathogenicity of Bursaphlenchus xyloophilus].

    PubMed

    Ding, Y; Lü, C; Han, B; Pou, H; Wu, M

    2001-06-01

    The results showed that the growth potential of pine (x) is negative related to the population density of Monochamus alternatus (y) and the pathoyenecity of Bursaphlenchus xyloophilus (z). But the population density of Monochamus alternatus is positively related to the pathogenicity of Bursaphlenchus xyloophilus. Three linear equations regression line were established as y = 1793.771 - 16404.47x, z = 31.80989 - 241.9274x, y = -407.611 + 70.51478z. Correlation coefficient is -0.8139, -0.8770 and +0.9864 respectively.

  19. Impacts of population growth, urbanisation and sanitation changes on global human Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water.

    PubMed

    Hofstra, Nynke; Vermeulen, Lucie C

    2016-10-01

    Cryptosporidium is a pathogenic protozoan parasite and is a leading cause of diarrhoea worldwide. The concentration of Cryptosporidium in the surface water is a determinant for probability of exposure and the risk of disease. Surface water concentrations are expected to change with population growth, urbanisation and changes in sanitation. The objective of this paper is to assess the importance of future changes in population, urbanisation and sanitation on global human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface water. The GloWPa-Crypto H1 (the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for Human Cryptosporidium emissions version 1) model is presented and run for 2010 and with scenarios for 2050. The new scenarios are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) developed for the climate community. The scenarios comprise assumptions on sanitation changes in line with the storylines and population and urbanisation changes from the SSPs. In SSP1 population growth is limited, urbanisation large and sanitation and waste water treatment strongly improve. SSP1* is the same as SSP1, but waste water treatment does not improve. SSP3 sees large population growth, moderate urbanisation and sanitation and waste water treatment fractions that are the same as in 2010. Total global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water for 2010 are estimated to be 1.6×10(17) oocysts per year, with hotspots in the most urbanised parts of the world. In 2050 emissions are expected to decrease by 24% or increase by 52% and 70% for SSP1, SSP3 and SSP1* respectively. The emissions increase in all scenarios for countries in the Middle East and Africa (MAF) region, while emissions in large parts in Europe decrease in scenarios SSP1 and SSP3. Improving sanitation by connecting the population to sewers, should be combined with waste water treatment, otherwise (SSP1*) emissions in 2050 are expected to be much larger than in a situation with strong population growth and slow development of safe water and

  20. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…