Science.gov

Sample records for 1996-2004 amtslig karkirurgisk

  1. Time-dependent seismic tomography of the Coso geothermal area, 1996-2004

    SciTech Connect

    Julian, B.R.; G.R. Foulger; K. Richards-Dinger; F. Monastero

    2006-04-01

    Local-earthquake tomographic images were calculated for each of the years 1996 - 2004 using arrival times from the U.S. Navy’s permanent seismometer network at the Coso geothermal area, California. The results show irregular strengthening with time of the wave-speed ratio VP/VS at shallow depths. These changes result predominately from progressive relative increase in VS with respect to VP, and could result from processes associated with geothermal operations such as decrease in fluid pressure and the drying of argillaceous minerals such as illite.

  2. Titan's 2 micron Surface Albedo and Haze Optical Depth in 1996-2004

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbard, S; de Pater, I; Macintosh, B; Roe, H; Max, C; Young, E; McKay, C

    2004-05-04

    We observed Titan in 1996-2004 with high-resolution 2 {micro}m speckle and adaptive optics imaging at the W.M. Keck Observatory. By observing in a 2 {micro}m broadband filter we obtain images that have contributions from both Titan's surface and atmosphere. We have modeled Titan's atmosphere using a plane-parallel radiative transfer code that has been corrected to agree with 3-D Monte Carlo predictions. We find that Titan's surface albedo ranges from {le} 0:02 in the darkest equatorial region of the trailing hemisphere to {approx_equal} 0:1 in the brightest areas of the leading hemisphere. Over the past quarter of a Saturnian year haze optical depth in Titan's Southern hemisphere has decreased substantially from a value of 0.48 in 1996 down to 0.18 in 2004, while the northern haze has been increasing over the past few years. As a result of these changes, in 2004 the North/South haze asymmetry at K' band has disappeared.

  3. The Impact of Increased Tax Subsidies on the Insurance Coverage of Self-Employed Families: Evidence from the 1996-2004 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Selden, Thomas M.

    2009-01-01

    The share of health insurance premiums that self-employed workers can deduct when computing federal income taxes rose from 30 percent in 1996 to 100 percent in 2003. Data from the 1996-2004 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey are used to show that the increased tax subsidy was associated with substantial increases in private coverage among…

  4. The asymmetry in sunspot area and magnetic flux variations in 1996-2004 extracted from the Solar Feature Catalogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkov, S. I.; Zharkova, V. V.

    2004-12-01

    This research utilizes a searchable Solar Feature Catalogue (SFC) for sunspots created from the SOHO/MDI full disk whitelight images and magnetograms in 1996-2004 using the automated pattern recognition techniques http://www.cyber.brad.ac.uk/egso/. A comparison of sunspot areas from the SFC with the averaged sunspot numbers published in the Sunspot Index Data Centre (SIDC) verified the detected sunspots with their correlation with sunspots areas on agiven day that revealed a very good detection accuracy of 86% for the whole period 1996-2003. The latitudinal (N-S) and longitudinal variations of sunspot areas, a total and resulting, or excess, magnetic flux are presented for the whole period of observations. The total sunspot areas measured from a single solar image have shown to have a strong Northern-Southern asymmetry that reveals the similar trend in the cumulative sunspot areas. At the start of the cycle from 1996 until 1999 the Northern hemisphere area trails the Southern one then followed by a bigger increase of the areas in the Northern hemisphere. The excess magnetic flux confined in sunspots also shows a significant N-S asymmetry being mostly negative in the Southern hemisphere and positive in the Northern one. However, towards the solar minimum in 1996 and in 2003-4 the excess flux becomes positive in the Southern and negative in the Northern hemispheres. These variations of total and excess magnetic fluxes during the solar cycle are compared with a few solar dynamo models.

  5. 1996-2004 Trends in the Single-Family Housing Market: Spatial Analysis of the Residential Sector

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Dave M.; Elliott, Douglas B.

    2006-09-05

    This report provides a detailed geographic analysis of two specific topics affecting the residential sector. First, we performed an analysis of new construction market trends using annual building permit data. We report summarized tables and national maps to help illustrate market conditions. Second, we performed a detailed geographic analysis of the housing finance market. We analyzed mortgage application data to provide citable statistics and detailed geographic summarization of the residential housing picture in the US for each year in the 1996-2004 period. The databases were linked to geographic information system tools to provide various map series detailing the results geographically. Looking at these results geographically may suggest potential new markets for TD programs addressing the residential sector that have not been considered previously. For example, we show which lenders affect which regions and which income or mortgage product classes. These results also highlight the issue of housing affordability. Energy efficiency R&D programs focused on developing new technology for the residential sector must be conscious of the costs of products resulting from research that will eventually impact the home owner or new home buyer. Results indicate that home values as a proportion of median family income in Building America communities are closely aligned with the national average of home value as a proportion of median income. Other key findings: • The share of home building and home buying activity continues to rise steadily in the Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid climate zones, while the Mixed-Humid and Cold climate zone shares continue to decline. Other zones remain relatively stable in terms of share of housing activity. • The proportion of home buyers having three times the median family income for their geography has been steadily increasing during the study period. • Growth in the Hispanic/Latino population and to a lesser degree in the Asian population has

  6. Inter-seismic deformation and plate coupling along the Andaman micro-plate margin: geodetic constraints using 1996-2004 GPS data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Earnest, A.; Puchakayala, J.; Rajendran, C. C. P.; Rajendran, K.

    2014-12-01

    Oblique convergence of the Andaman microplate with the Sunda margin results in permanent deformation within the overriding plate and had generated giant plate-boundary ruptures like the 2004 Mw 9.3 Sumatra- Andaman earthquake. Inter-seismic upper plate deformation of this part of the subduction zone remains poorly constrained due to lack of availability of spatially well distributed data. Through this study we are reanalyzing the available GPS geodetic data sets collected by various agencies over different times between 1996-2004 to constrain the pre-earthquake convergence values using a consistent reference frame to determine the crustal deformation in the Andaman Nicobar region, to infer strain rates in the overriding plate, how Andaman microplate was moving relative to Indian plate and what was the extent of plate locking. We will also discuss the details on spatial and temporal variations of convergence rates and variations in plate coupling. To quantify the change in coupling, we calculated the interseismic surface deformation using Okada's formulation, in which locked faults are modelled as dislocations in a halfspace. We defined the subduction zone geometry as three elastically deforming blocks (India, Andaman fore-arc, and Sunda) separated by two faults: the West Andaman Fault and the Sumatra-Andaman megathrust. The bennioff-zone dip and orientation is re-defined using the recently relocated epicentral solutions with higher accuracy and from the slip-distribution models constrained from the various co-seismic geodetic offsets reported from the near-field and far-field GPS sites . The rigid-body motion of each block is specified by a pole of rotation. We modelled the variation in coupling by specifying for each node and integrating the slip deficit over the fault surfaces. The West Andaman Fault is modeled as a vertical strike- lip fault, locked to a depth of ~20 km, with a dextral slip.

  7. Time-dependent seismic tomography of the Coso geothermal area, 1996-2004

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.; Foulger, G.R.

    2005-01-01

    The permanent 18-station network of three-component digital seismometers at the seismically active Coso geothermal area, California, provides high-quality microearthquake (MEQ) data that are well suited to investigating temporal variations in structure related to processes within the geothermal reservoir. A preliminary study [Julian, et al., 2003; Julian, et al., 2004] comparing data from 1996 and 2003 found significant variations in the ratio of the seismic wave-speeds, Vp/Vs, at shallow depths over this time interval. This report describes results of a more detailed study of each year from 1996 through 2004.

  8. Yellow fever vaccine-associated viscerotropic disease (YEL-AVD) and corticosteroid therapy: eleven United States cases, 1996-2004.

    PubMed

    Vellozzi, Claudia; Mitchell, Tarissa; Miller, Elaine; Casey, Christine G; Eidex, Rachel Barwick; Hayes, Edward B

    2006-08-01

    During 1996 through 2004, 29 cases of yellow fever vaccine-associated viscerotropic disease (YEL-AVD) have been reported worldwide; 17 were fatal. Stress-dose corticosteroid (SDS) therapy has recently been found to improve survival among patients with septic shock but benefit for the treatment of YEL-AVD patients in septic shock is unknown. We retrospectively reviewed medical records of 11 U.S. YEL-AVD cases reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) from 1996 through 2004. Four of 11 case-patients received SDS; 3 of these 4 (75%) survived. Seven patients did not receive SDS and 2 (29%) survived. Altered mental status was documented on admission for 5 of the 11 patients; 4 of these 5 did not receive SDS and died, whereas one received SDS and survived. The use of stress-dose steroids might be a factor that influenced the survival of these YEL-AVD patients and should be further evaluated in the management of both YEL-AVD and wild-type yellow fever septic shock.

  9. Volcano-tectonic deformation at Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake volcanoes, northern California, from GPS: 1996-2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lisowski, M.; Poland, M.; Dzurisin, D.; Owen, S.

    2004-12-01

    Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake volcanoes are two of the three Cascade volcanoes targeted for dense GPS and strainmeter deployments by the magmatic systems component of Earthscope's Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO). Leveling surveys indicate an average subsidence rate of ˜9 mm/yr at Medicine Lake volcano since at least 1954, which could result from draining of a magma reservoir, cooling/crystallization of a subsurface body of magma or hot rock, loading by the volcano and dense intrusions, crustal thinning due to regional extension, or some combination of these mechanisms. Displacements from GPS surveys in 1996 and 1999 revealed regional block rotation and contraction across the summit of the volcano, but the time interval was too short to distinguish between possible mechanisms. On Mount Shasta, a 21-line, 12-km aperture EDM network was measured in 1981, 1982, and 1984 with no significant deformation detected, nor was there significant length change in three EDM lines recovered with GPS in 2000. We present results from GPS surveys completed in June and July 2004 of the region surrounding both Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake volcanoes. We find regional deformation to be dominated by a block rotation about a pole in southeast Oregon, similar to but generally south of poles determined by other workers using GPS in western Oregon and Washington. No significant residual deformation remains in the four GPS stations located on Mount Shasta, which were previously measured in 2000. In contrast, GPS results from six stations on the upper flanks of Medicine Lake volcano confirm the known subsidence and are consistent with elastic half-space models of volume loss that fit the leveling data. No significant residual regional strain was detected. As a result, we believe that subsidence at Medicine Lake does not likely result from crustal thinning due to regional extension. A more detailed examination of Medicine Lake subsidence sources, Mount Shasta edifice deformation, and possible local and regional temporal deformation changes will be available after installation of continuous GPS stations and strainmeters by the Plate Boundary Observatory. In addition, we have begun annual microgravity measurements that in the future should help to distinguish between possible deformation mechanisms for Medicine Lake volcano.

  10. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVIII: Survival and Transportation Effects of Migrating Snake River Wild Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates From 1996-2004 and Comparison to Hatchery Results. Draft.

    SciTech Connect

    Buchanan, Rebecca A.; Skalski, John R.; Broms, Kristin

    2008-12-03

    The combined juvenile and adult detection histories of PIT-tagged wild salmonids migrating through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) were analyzed using the ROSTER (River-Ocean Survival and Transportation Effects Routine) statistical release-recapture model. This model, implemented by software Program ROSTER, was used to estimate survival on large temporal and spatial scales for PIT-tagged wild spring and summer Chinook salmon and steelhead released in the Snake River Basin upstream of Lower Granite Dam from 1996 to 2004. In addition, annual results from wild salmonids were compared with results from hatchery salmonids, which were presented in a previous report in this series (Buchanan, R. A., Skalski, J. R., Lady, J. L., Westhagen, P., Griswold, J., and Smith, S. 2007, 'Survival and Transportation Effects for Migrating Snake River Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates from 1996-2003', Technical report, Bonneville Power Administration, Project 1991-051-00). These results are reported here. Annual estimates of the smolt-to-adult return ratio (SAR), juvenile inriver survival from Lower Granite to Bonneville, the ocean return probability from Bonneville to Bonneville, and adult upriver survival from Bonneville to Lower Granite are reported. Annual estimates of transport-inriver (T/I) ratios and differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) are reported on a dam-specific basis for release years with sufficient numbers of wild PIT-tagged smolts transported. Transportation effects are estimated only for dams where at least 1,000 tagged wild smolts were transported from a given upstream release group. Because few wild Chinook salmon and steelhead tagged upstream of Lower Granite Dam were transported before the 2003 release year, T/I and D were estimated only for the 2003 and 2004 release years. Performance measures include age-1-ocean adult returns for steelhead, but not for Chinook salmon. Spring and summer Chinook salmon release groups were pooled across the entire Snake River Basin upstream of Lower Granite Dam for this report. Annual estimates of SAR from Lower Granite back to Lower Granite averaged 0.92% with an estimated standard error (dSE) of 0.25% for wild spring and summer Chinook salmon for tagged groups released from 1996 through 2004, omitting age-1-ocean (jack) returns. Only for the 1999 and 2000 release years did the wild Chinook SAR approach the target value of 2%, identified by the NPCC as the minimum SAR necessary for recovery. Annual estimates of SAR for wild steelhead from the Snake River Basin averaged 0.63% (dSE = 0.15%), including age-1-ocean returns, for release years 1996 through 2004. For release years when the ocean return probability from Bonneville back to Bonneville could be estimated (i.e., 1999 through 2004), it was estimated that on average approximately 83% of the total integrated mortality for nontransported, tagged wild spring and summer Chinook, and 78% for steelhead (omitting the 2001 release year), occurred during the ocean life stage (i.e., from Bonneville to Bonneville). This suggests that additional monitoring and research efforts should include the ocean and estuary environment. Annual estimates of the dam-specific T/I for Lower Granite Dam were available for the 2003 and 2004 release years for both wild Chinook salmon and wild steelhead. The estimated T/I for Lower Granite was significantly > 1.0 for Chinook in 2004 (P < 0.0001) and for steelhead in both 2003 (P < 0.0001) and 2004 (P < 0.0001), indicating that for these release years, wild fish transported at Lower Granite returned there in higher proportions than fish that were returned to the river at Lower Granite, or that passed Lower Granite without detection as juveniles. Annual estimates of the dam-specific T/I for Little Goose Dam were available for wild Chinook salmon for both 2003 and 2004. The estimated T/I for Little Goose was significantly > 1.0 for wild Chinook in 2004 (P = 0.0024), but not in 2003 (P = 0.1554). Differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) is the ratio of post-Bonneville survival to Lower Granite Dam of transported fish to that of nontransported ('inriver') fish. Estimates of D were available for transportation from Lower Granite and Little Goose dams in 2003 and 2004 for wild Chinook, and from Lower Granite Dam in 2003 and 2004 for wild steelhead. Point estimates ranged from 0.74 (dSE = 0.29) for transportation of wild Chinook salmon from Lower Granite Dam in 2003 to 1.91 (dSE = 0.61) for transportation of wild steelhead from Lower Granite Dam in 2003. Small transport groups resulted in high uncertainty on the point estimates, and only for 2003 steelhead transported from Lower Granite Dam did transported fish have significantly greater post-Bonneville survival than nontransported fish (P = 0.0213).

  11. Trends in pesticide concentrations in urban streams in the United States, 1992-2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Martin, Jeffrey D.; Gilliom, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Pesticide concentration trends in streams dominated by urban land use were assessed using data from 27 urban streams sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The sites were divided into four regions, Northeast, South, Midwest, and West, to examine possible regional patterns. Three partially overlapping 9-year periods (1992-2000, 1996-2004, and 2000-2008) were examined for eight herbicides and one degradation product (simazine, prometon, atrazine, deethylatrazine, metolachlor, trifluralin, pendimethalin, tebuthiuron, and Dacthal), and five insecticides and two degradation products (chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, fipronil, fipronil sulfide, desulfinylfipronil, and carbaryl). The data were analyzed for trends in concentration using a parametric regression model with seasonality, flow-related variability, and trend, called SEAWAVE-Q. The SEAWAVE-Q model also was used to generate estimated daily concentration percentiles for each analysis period to provide a summary of concentration magnitudes. For herbicides, the largest 90th percentiles of estimated concentrations for simazine were in the South, prometon at some sites in all of the regions, atrazine and deethylatrazine in the South and Midwest, metolachlor in the Midwest and a few sites in the South, pendimethalin at scattered sites in all of the regions, and tebuthiuron in the South and a few sites in the Midwest and West. For insecticides, the largest 90th percentiles of estimated concentrations for diazinon and carbaryl were distributed among various sites in all regions (especially during 1996-2004), and fipronil at isolated sites in all of the regions during 2000-2008. Trend analysis results for the herbicides indicated many significant trends, both upward and downward, with varying patterns depending on period, region, and herbicide. Overall, deethylatrazine showed the most consistent pattern of upward trends, especially in the Northeast (2000-2008), South

  12. Inside out: Focusing as a Therapeutic Modality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagner, Katje

    2006-01-01

    The author explores Focusing (E. Gendlin, 1959, 1961, 1962, 1964, 1967, 1968, 1981, 1989, 1996, 2004) as a psychotherapeutic modality and presents background that led to the development of Focusing, its rationale and theoretical orientation, and supporting research. The author also provides a detailed and experiential illustration of the…

  13. Death of Reference or Birth of a New Marketing Age?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henry, Jo

    2011-01-01

    Reference transactions in academic libraries have been on the decline since mid-1990. The Academic Library Survey from the National Center for Education Statistics shows an average drop of 25% in reference use from 1996-2004 with higher numbers at some institutions such as the University of Maryland which plummeted 47% (Martell, 2008). The…

  14. Editorial: Looking to the Future of Hydrologic Engineering

    EPA Science Inventory

    Being one of the more recent journals of the American Society of Civil Engineers, the Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (JHE) has made significant strides under the forward-thinking leadership of previous editors (M. Levent Kavvas 1996-2004, and V. P. Singh, 2004-2012) si...

  15. Occurrence of bovine ephemeral fever in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, in 2012 and development of a reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction assay to detect bovine ephemeral fever virus gene.

    PubMed

    Niwa, Tsuyoshi; Shirafuji, Hiroaki; Ikemiyagi, Kazufumi; Nitta, Yoshiki; Suzuki, Moemi; Kato, Tomoko; Yanase, Tohru

    2015-04-01

    In September 2012, several cows and a calf showed decreased activity, anorexia and fever on Ishigaki Island, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, and the cases were diagnosed as bovine ephemeral fever (BEF). We isolated BEF virus (BEFV) from one of the affected cows and then determined the complete genome sequence of the G gene, which encodes a class I transmembrane glycoprotein of BEFV. The BEFV isolate in this case, ON-3/E/12, was sorted into the same cluster as other BEFV isolates in Japan, Taiwan and China obtained in 1996-2004 and was most closely related to a 2002 Chinese isolate, JT02L, according to the phylogenetic analysis of the complete G gene. Since inactivated vaccines for BEF available in Japan are considered effective against the ON-3/E/12 isolate as well as other isolates in East Asia from 1996-2004, annual vaccination should be conducted to prevent BEF in Okinawa. Additionally, in this study, we developed an RT-PCR assay to detect the BEFV gene in Japan and neighboring countries. Our assay was able to amplify target sequences in all of the tested BEFV isolates, including 18 isolates in Japan and another isolate in Australia. The assay was found to be useful also for testing RNA samples extracted from bovine peripheral blood mononuclear cells, and the detection limit of the assay was 10 copies per tube. We believe that our assay would be an important tool for the screening of BEFV infection and the diagnosis of BEF.

  16. Cohabitation, gender, and alcohol consumption in 19 countries: a multilevel analysis.

    PubMed

    Li, Qing; Wilsnack, Richard; Wilsnack, Sharon; Kristjanson, Arlinda

    2010-12-01

    We used an ecological paradigm and multilevel analytic techniques to analyze gender-specific relationships of cohabitation (versus marriage) to drinking in 19 countries (n = 32,922) and to "heavy episodic drinking" (HED) in 17 countries (n = 24,525) in surveys (1996-2004) from Gender, Alcohol, and Culture: An International Study. Cohabitation was associated with elevated risk of HED among drinkers of both genders, controlling for age, education, and societal characteristics. The association between cohabitation and HED tended to be stronger for female drinkers than for male drinkers. HED was more prevalent among younger drinkers, especially among younger women in countries with higher per capita gross domestic product. Cross-culturally, cohabiters deserve special attention in prevention efforts for hazardous drinking, considering both individual-level and societal factors.

  17. The Impact of Race and Ethnicity, Immigration, and Political Context on Participation in American Electoral Politics.

    PubMed

    Logan, John R; Darrah, Jennifer; Oh, Sookhee

    2012-01-01

    This study uses national survey data in federal election years during 1996-2004 to examine voter registration and voting. It shows that racial/ethnic disparities in socio-economic resources and rootedness in the community do not explain overall group differences in electoral participation. It contradicts the expectation from an assimilation perspective that low levels of Latino participation are partly attributable to the large share of immigrants among Latinos. In fact net differences show higher average Latino participation than previously reported. The study focuses especially on contextual factors that could affect collective responses of group members. Moving beyond past research, significant effects are found for the group's representation among office holders, voting regulations, and state policies related to treatment of immigrants.

  18. Pricing behaviour of nonprofit insurers in a weakly competitive social health insurance market.

    PubMed

    Douven, Rudy C H M; Schut, Frederik T

    2011-03-01

    In this paper we examine the pricing behaviour of nonprofit health insurers in the Dutch social health insurance market. Since for-profit insurers were not allowed in this market, potential spillover effects from the presence of for-profit insurers on the behaviour of nonprofit insurers were absent. Using a panel data set for all health insurers operating in the Dutch social health insurance market over the period 1996-2004, we estimate a premium model to determine which factors explain the price setting behaviour of nonprofit health insurers. We find that financial stability rather than profit maximisation offers the best explanation for health plan pricing behaviour. In the presence of weak price competition, health insurers did not set premiums to maximize profits. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that regulations on financial reserves are needed to restrict premiums.

  19. The Impact of Race and Ethnicity, Immigration, and Political Context on Participation in American Electoral Politics

    PubMed Central

    Logan, John R.; Darrah, Jennifer; Oh, Sookhee

    2013-01-01

    This study uses national survey data in federal election years during 1996-2004 to examine voter registration and voting. It shows that racial/ethnic disparities in socio-economic resources and rootedness in the community do not explain overall group differences in electoral participation. It contradicts the expectation from an assimilation perspective that low levels of Latino participation are partly attributable to the large share of immigrants among Latinos. In fact net differences show higher average Latino participation than previously reported. The study focuses especially on contextual factors that could affect collective responses of group members. Moving beyond past research, significant effects are found for the group's representation among office holders, voting regulations, and state policies related to treatment of immigrants. PMID:24339453

  20. Response of sulfate concentration and isotope composition in Icelandic rivers to the decline in global atmospheric SO{sub 2} emissions into the North Atlantic region

    SciTech Connect

    Sigurdur Reynir Gislason; Peter Torssander

    2006-02-01

    This study presents the changes in dissolved sulfate concentration and isotope composition of Icelandic river waters between the peak of SO{sub 2} emissions in the United States and Europe and the present. Chloride concentration in Icelandic rivers has not changed much since 1972. The overall average change from 1972-1973 to 1996-2004 was -3%, indicating insignificant sea-salt contribution changes. More than 99% of the river-dissolved sulfur was in the form of sulfate. There are three main sources for dissolved sulfate in the rivers: rocks, sea-salts, and anthropogenic. Total dissolved sulfate, {sub td}SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}, and non-sea-salt sulfate, {sub nss}SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}, decreased in all of the rivers from the early 1970s to 1996-2004. The percentage decrease varies from 13% to 65%. The decrease is smallest in rivers were there is considerable rock-derived dissolved SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}. The overall average decrease was 39% for {sub td}SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} and 46% for {sub nss}SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}. The anthropogenic sulfate fraction has declined making most of the river waters {delta}{sup 34}S values of sulfate higher through time. The overall decline in river sulfate and increase in {delta}{sup 34}S, while SO{sub 2} emissions from Iceland has been increasing, demonstrates the response of river chemistry in the remote North Atlantic to the decline in man-made emissions of SO{sub 2} in North America and Europe. 43 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  1. Mercury in the atmosphere and in rainwater at Cape Point, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunke, Ernst-Günther; Walters, Chavon; Mkololo, Thumeka; Martin, Lynwill; Labuschagne, Casper; Silwana, Bongiwe; Slemr, Franz; Weigelt, Andreas; Ebinghaus, Ralf; Somerset, Vernon

    2016-01-01

    Mercury measurements were concurrently made in air (Gaseous Elemental Mercury, i.e. GEM) as well as in precipitation samples (Total mercury, i.e. TotHg) over a seven year period (2007-2013) at Cape Point, South Africa, during the rainy seasons (May-October). Eighty-five rain events, almost exclusively associated with cold fronts, have been identified of which 75% reached the Cape Point observatory directly across the Atlantic Ocean from the south, while 19% moved in to the measuring site via the Cape Town metropolitan region. In statistic terms the GEM, TotHg, CO and 222Rn levels within the urban-marine events do not differ from those seen in the marine rain episodes. Over the 2007-2013 period, the May till Oct averages for GEM ranged from 0.913 ng m-3 to 1.108 ng m-3, while TotHg concentrations ranged from 0.03 to 52.5 ng L-1 (overall average: 9.91 ng L-1). A positive correlation (R2 = 0.49, n = 7) has been found between the average annual (May till October) GEM concentrations in air and TotHg concentration in rainwater suggesting a close relationship between the two species. The wetter years are normally associated with higher GEM and TotHg levels. Both GEM and TotHg annual means correlate positively with total annual (May till October) rain depths. If one or two outlier years are removed from the data set, the R2 values increase from 0.23 to 0.10 for GEM and TotHg to 0.97 (n = 5) and 0.89 (n = 5), respectively. The relationship between annual mean GEM and annual precipitation depth also holds for the period 1996-2004 (R2 = 0.6, n = 8) when GEM was measured manually (low resolution data). A positive correlation was also seen between annual average GEM concentrations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index (SOI), for the 1996-2004 period (R2 = 0.7, n = 8). For the 2007-2013 periods this relationship was also positive but less pronounced. The relationship between annual precipitation depth and annual SOI suggests that the inter-annual variations of GEM

  2. Analysis of UV Satellite and Ground Observed data for Sardinia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cervone, Guido; Manca, Germana; Johnson, Kathleen

    Ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the 280 to 400 nanometers range has been found to be one of the primary cause for skin cancer. The correlation between UV radiation and skin cancer prevention is of global concern. Satellite observations from Nimbus7 (1978-1993), EarthProbe (1996-2004) and OMI/AURA (2004-present) provide long term UV time-series that can be used to study and compute the risk associated with exposure to harmful radiation. Additionally, several ground installations exist to acquire UV radiation data that can be paired with satellite observations. The current work presents the data mining analysis of UV time series from 1978 to present for the Italian region of Sardinia. Satellite observations are paired with ground measurements to provide historical averages of UV radiation, and daily maps of current exposure. A Geographical Information System (GIS) is used to fuse UV data with ground characteristics. The use of GIS is fundamental to calculate the real value of UV on the ground. It is known that the incidence of solar radiation, and consequently of UV, is modified by topography and surface features. Topography plays a important rule, because it is a major factor that determines the spatial variability of insulation and UV being a part of direct insulation. variation in elevation orientation (slope and aspect), and shadow cast by topographical features, determine the UV insulation in a given area or point.

  3. Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, Row Crops and their Relationship to Nitrate in Eastern Iowa Rivers

    PubMed Central

    Weldon, Mark B.; Hornbuckle, Keri C.

    2009-01-01

    Concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFO) and fertilizer application to row crops may contribute to poor water quality in surface waters. To test this hypothesis, we evaluated nutrient concentrations and fluxes in four Eastern Iowa watersheds sampled between 1996-2004. We found that these watersheds contribute nearly 10% of annual nitrate flux entering the Gulf of Mexico, while representing only 1.5% of the contributing drainage basin. Mass budget analysis shows stream flow to be a major loss of nitrogen (18% of total N output), second only to crop harvest (63%). The major watershed inputs of nitrogen include applied fertilizer for corn (54% of total N input) and nitrogen fixation by soybeans (26%). Despite the relatively small input from animal manure (~5%), the results of spatial analysis indicate that row crop and CAFO densities are significantly and independently correlated to higher nitrate concentration in streams. Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.59 and 0.89 were found between nitrate concentration and row crop and CAFO density, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis produced a correlation for nitrate concentration with an R2 value of 85%. High spatial density of row crops and CAFOs are linked to the highest river nitrate concentrations (up to 15 mg/l normalized over five years). PMID:16749677

  4. Integrating enhanced hepatitis C testing and counselling in research.

    PubMed

    Winter, Rebecca; Nguyen, Oanh; Higgs, Peter; Armstrong, Stuart; Duong, Duyen; Thach, My Li; Aitken, Campbell; Hellard, Margaret

    2008-02-01

    The hepatitis C virus (HCV) affects over 170 million people worldwide. In Australia, over 225,000 people have been diagnosed with HCV infection with 13,000 infections reported annually; 90% are attributed to injecting drug use. Burnet Institute (BI) researchers have been studying the HCV epidemic since the virus was identified in 1989 including community based cohort studies (1990-1995), numerous studies involving Vietnamese-Australian people who inject drugs (PWID) (1996-2004) and social network studies (2000-2002, 2005-2007). Through this work the BI has developed a model of research practice for HCV and PWID, developed in recognition that much research relating to BBV infections - and HCV in particular - could be improved in terms of provision of test results to study participants. Our model endeavours to provide all participants with the highest quality HCV test results, delivered in accordance with best practice for pre- and post-test counselling by engaging participants in environments in which they are comfortable, building trust and rapport and being available throughout and beyond the research study. This paper will discuss the benefits and lessons learned over numerous studies in providing pre- and post-test counselling to PWID in an outreach capacity. PMID:18312821

  5. Searchable solar feature catalogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkova, V. V.; Aboudarham, J.; Zharkov, S.; Ipson, S. S.; Benkhalil, A. K.; Fuller, N.

    The searchable Solar Feature Catalogues (SFCs) are developed from digitized solar images using automated pattern recognition techniques. The techniques were applied for the detection of sunspots, active regions, filaments and line-of-sight magnetic neutral lines in automatically standardized full disk solar images in Ca II K1, Ca II K3 and Ha lines taken at the Paris-Meudon Observatory and white light images and magnetograms from SOHO/MDI. The results of the automated recognition were verified with manual synoptic maps and available statistical data that revealed good detection accuracy. Based on the recognized parameters, a structured database of Solar Feature Catalogues was built on a MySQL server for every feature and published with various pre-designed search pages on the Bradford University web site http://www.cyber.brad.ac.uk/egso/SFC/. The SFCs with nine year coverage (1996-2004) is to be used for deeper investigation of the feature classification and solar activity forecast.

  6. Solar Feature Catalogues In Egso

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkova, V. V.; Aboudarham, J.; Zharkov, S.; Ipson, S. S.; Benkhalil, A. K.; Fuller, N.

    2005-05-01

    The Solar Feature Catalogues (SFCs) are created from digitized solar images using automated pattern recognition techniques developed in the European Grid of Solar Observation (EGSO) project. The techniques were applied for detection of sunspots, active regions and filaments in the automatically standardized full-disk solar images in Caii K1, Caii K3 and Hα taken at the Meudon Observatory and white-light images and magnetograms from SOHO/MDI. The results of automated recognition are verified with the manual synoptic maps and available statistical data from other observatories that revealed high detection accuracy. A structured database of the Solar Feature Catalogues is built on the MySQL server for every feature from their recognized parameters and cross-referenced to the original observations. The SFCs are published on the Bradford University web site http://www.cyber.brad.ac.uk/egso/SFC/ with the pre-designed web pages for a search by time, size and location. The SFCs with 9 year coverage (1996 2004) provide any possible information that can be extracted from full disk digital solar images. Thus information can be used for deeper investigation of the feature origin and association with other features for their automated classification and solar activity forecast.

  7. Viral Load in Spanish HIV patients: trends since the introduction of HAART.

    PubMed

    Eiros, J M; Sánchez-Padilla, E; Luquero, F J; Nogueira, B; Rojo, S; Atienza-Herrero, J; Ortiz de Lejarazu, R

    2009-03-01

    The aim of this study is to describe trends in the percentage of samples with undetectable HIV viral load in Spain after the implementation of HAART. A descriptive observational study of HIV-VL measurements carried out in the microbiology department of the Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid (HCUV) was conducted over a 9-year period (1996-2004). Regarding the trend over the study period, the 30-39 years age group accounted for most of the samples, although the percentage decreased from 65.5% to 59.6% over the study period. In contrast, the 40-49 years group increased from 9.1% to 14.5%. The preponderance of men, with percentages above 70%, was observed during the whole period. Although the purpose of this treatment is to maintain undetectable viral loads, since 1999 more than 60% of nonfirst samples had detectable levels. Based on the results of the VL trend among HIV/AIDS patients observed in this study, a large number of patients maintain elevated detectable VL years after HAART was implemented. Although different factors may be the cause of this and should be delimited in future studies, the phenomenon observed demonstrates the usefulness of monitoring VL and analyzing its time trend to gain further knowledge about the therapeutic results and care of HIV patients as a whole, also serving as the basis for corrective measures.

  8. Atmospheric three-dimensional inverse modeling of regional industrial emissions and global oceanic uptake of carbon tetrachloride

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, X.; Prinn, R. G.; Fraser, P. J.; Weiss, R. F.; Simmonds, P. G.; O'Doherty, S.; Miller, B. R.; Salameh, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Krummel, P. B.; Golombek, A.; Porter, L. W.; Butler, J. H.; Elkins, J. W.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Steele, L. P.; Wang, R. H. J.; Cunnold, D. M.

    2010-11-01

    Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) has substantial stratospheric ozone depletion potential and its consumption is controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. We implement a Kalman filter using atmospheric CCl4 measurements and a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to estimate the interannual regional industrial emissions and seasonal global oceanic uptake of CCl4 for the period of 1996-2004. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by offline National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis meteorological fields, is used to simulate CCl4 mole fractions and calculate their sensitivities to regional sources and sinks using a finite difference approach. High frequency observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and low frequency flask observations are together used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes, estimated as factors that multiply the a priori fluxes. Although industry data imply that the global industrial emissions were substantially declining with large interannual variations, the optimized results show only small interannual variations and a small decreasing trend. The global surface CCl4 mole fractions were declining in this period because the CCl4 oceanic and stratospheric sinks exceeded the industrial emissions. Compared to the a priori values, the inversion results indicate substantial increases in industrial emissions originating from the South Asian/Indian and Southeast Asian regions, and significant decreases in emissions from the European and North American regions.

  9. Atmospheric three-dimensional inverse modeling of regional industrial emissions and global oceanic uptake of carbon tetrachloride

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, X.; Prinn, R. G.; Fraser, P. J.; Weiss, R. F.; Simmonds, P. G.; O'Doherty, S.; Miller, B. R.; Salameh, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Krummel, P. B.; Golombek, A.; Porter, L. W.; Elkins, J. W.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Steele, L. P.; Wang, R. H. J.; Cunnold, D. M.

    2010-05-01

    Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) has substantial stratospheric ozone depletion potential and its consumption is controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. We implement a Kalman filter using atmospheric CC14 measurements and a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to estimate the interannual regional industrial emissions and seasonal global oceanic uptake of CCl4 for the period of 1996-2004. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by offline National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis meteorological fields, is used to simulate CCl4 mole fractions and calculate their sensitivities to regional sources and sinks using a finite difference approach. High frequency observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and low frequency flask observations are together used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes, estimated as factors that multiply the a priori fluxes. Although industry data imply that the global industrial emissions were substantially declining with large interannual variations, the optimized results show only small interannual variations and a small decreasing trend. The global surface CCl4 mole fractions were declining in this period because the CCl4 oceanic and stratospheric sinks exceeded the industrial emissions. Compared to the a priori values, the inversion results indicate substantial increases in industrial emissions originating from the South Asian/Indian and Southeast Asian regions, and significant decreases in emissions from the European and North American regions.

  10. Evidence for an Evolving Cyclotron Line Energy in 4U 1538-522

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Britton Hemphill, Paul; Rothschild, Richard E.; Fuerst, Felix; Grinberg, Victoria; Klochkov, Dmitry; Kretschmar, Peter; Pottschmidt, Katja; Staubert, Rüdiger; Wilms, Joern

    2016-04-01

    In this talk, I present results from a comprehensive analysis of the existing RXTE, INTEGRAL, and Suzaku data for the high-mass X-ray binary 4U 1538-522. This persistent X-ray pulsar has a clearly-detected cyclotron resonance scattering feature (CRSF), which appears to have increased in energy over the past decade, from approximately 20-21 keV as measured by RXTE in 1996-2004 to ~22-23 keV as found in the 2012 Suzaku observation. This spectral feature is the only direct measurement of the neutron star's magnetic field strength, and its behavior can be used to track the conditions in the accretion mound near the neutron star surface. Our analysis finds that the increased CRSF energy is especially prominent in spectra from the peak of the main pulse, which suggests that the physical origin of this shift in energy may be restricted to a single magnetic pole, possibly indicating some reconfiguration of the structure of the accretion mound not reflected in the other spectral parameters. I will discuss the analysis and some implications of this result, especially in the context of work by Staubert et al. (2015, A&A 572, 119), which unveiled a secular trend in the CRSF energy of the prototypical CRSF source, Hercules X-1.

  11. [Principles and criteria used by the National Evaluation Committee of Research Activity (CNEAI-Spain) for the assessment of scientific publications: 1989-2009].

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Pérez, Rafael; Delgado López-Cózar, Emilio; Jiménez-Contreras, Evaristo

    2010-11-01

    Study of the origins, philosophy and history of the criteria used to assess research activities in Spain by the CNEAI. The assessment criteria and quality evidence of publications is discussed. Results are presented on the temporal development of the criteria used, grouped by publication type (articles and books) and fields of knowledge. Between 1989-1996, assessment was based on the definition and goals set by the Spanish scientific framework and on general criteria. Between 1996-2004, the formulation of indicators began to be almost exclusively based on Journal Citation Reports (JCR). Success rates up to 2004 indicate that the evaluation criteria and publishing behaviour matched the "hard sciences", but not the Social Sciences and Economics. In 2005, the criteria used were further developed and reoriented with an eye to softening the preceding JCR-centrism by taking into consideration other databases and defining the quality criteria to be met by journals, books and conferences not included in JCR. Correspondingly, the success rates for 2007 indicate a dramatic recovery in Economics. In the last 4 years, Humanities and Social Sciences have consolidated the further opening of the criteria used with the addition of new benchmarks and the full integration of books. PMID:21044530

  12. Geomorphic response of sandbars to the March 2008 high-flow experiment on the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grams, Paul E.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Schmidt, John C.; Kaplinski, Matt; Wright, Scott A.; Topping, David J.; Melis, Theodore S.

    2010-01-01

    The completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 drastically altered the downstream flow regime and resulted in more than a 90 percent reduction of sand supply to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Sandbars that were maintained by annual floods and a large sediment supply are now fewer in number and smaller in area and volume. Efforts to maintain sandbars in the current era of dam management utilize controlled floods timed to occur during brief periods of sediment enrichment that result from tributary floods. Repeat surveys of 22 sandbars made before and after controlled floods conducted in 1996, 2004, and 2008 document changes in sandbar volume; and repeat surveys at more than 100 sites document changes in sandbar elevation and morphology for the 2008 event. Each of the controlled floods resulted in sandbar deposition that was followed by erosion in the 6-month post-flood period. Erosion rates are positively correlated with post-flood dam release volumes and negatively correlated with post-flood tributary sediment supply volume. October 2008 sandbar volume was similar or larger than sandbar volume in February 1996, before the first of the three controlled floods. Deposition during the 2008 controlled flood was also associated with increases in the quantity of backwater habitat, which is used by native and non-native fish.

  13. Riparian vegetation, Colorado River, and climate: Five decades of spatiotemporal dynamics in the Grand Canyon with river regulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sankey, Joel B.; Ralston, Barbara E.; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Cagney, Laura E.

    2015-08-01

    Documentation of the interacting effects of river regulation and climate on riparian vegetation has typically been limited to small segments of rivers or focused on individual plant species. We examine spatiotemporal variability in riparian vegetation for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon relative to river regulation and climate, over the five decades since completion of the upstream Glen Canyon Dam in 1963. Long-term changes along this highly modified, large segment of the river provide insights for management of similar riparian ecosystems around the world. We analyze vegetation extent based on maps and imagery from eight dates between 1965 and 2009, coupled with the instantaneous hydrograph for the entire period. Analysis confirms a net increase in vegetated area since completion of the dam. Magnitude and timing of such vegetation changes are river stage-dependent. Vegetation expansion is coincident with inundation frequency changes and is unlikely to occur for time periods when inundation frequency exceeds approximately 5%. Vegetation expansion at lower zones of the riparian area is greater during the periods with lower peak and higher base flows, while vegetation at higher zones couples with precipitation patterns and decreases during drought. Short pulses of high flow, such as the controlled floods of the Colorado River in 1996, 2004, and 2008, do not keep vegetation from expanding onto bare sand habitat. Management intended to promote resilience of riparian vegetation must contend with communities that are sensitive to the interacting effects of altered flood regimes and water availability from river and precipitation.

  14. Dietary benzo[a]pyrene, alcohol drinking, and risk of breast cancer: a case-control study in Uruguay.

    PubMed

    Ronco, Alvaro L; De Stefani, Eduardo; Correa, Pelayo; Deneo-Pellegrini, Hugo; Boffetta, Paolo; Acosta, Gisele; Mendilaharsu, Maria

    2011-01-01

    In order to determine to the effect of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) on breast cancer risk we conducted a case-control study in the time period 1996-2004. The study included 1,098 participants (460 cases and 638 controls). All the patients were drawn from the four major hospitals in Montevideo, Uruguay. Statistical analysis was performed using unconditional multiple logistic regression and the models included age, residence, urban/rural status, education, monthly income, body mass index, menopausal status, age at menarche, parity, smoking index, alcohol drinking, mate consumption, total energy, total vegetables and fruits, and BaP intake. The highest vs. the lowest quartile of BaP intake (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2-3.3) was significantly associated with breast cancer risk. Alcohol drinking was also directly associated with breast cancer risk (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.19-2.23) and the joint effect of BaP and alcohol drinking showed an elevated risk of the disease (OR 3.32, 95% CI 2.17-5.06). The present study suggests that elevated consumption of BaP could play an important role in the etiology of breast cancer. This effect is enhanced by the intake of alcohol. PMID:22126482

  15. Black carbon particles in the urban atmosphere in Beijing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Gengchen; Bai, Jianhui; Kong, Qinxin; Emilenko, Alexander

    2005-09-01

    A study of the concentration of black carbon particles and its variation in the urban atmosphere has been carried out since 1996 in the Beijing area. The measurements were done in the late autumn and early winter each year, the period before and after domestic heating activities begin. The results show the presence of black carbon particles at the high level that vary over a large range in the urban atmosphere in Beijing. The mean value of daily average concentration for the whole observation period of 1996 2004 is 20.0 μg m-3. An evident decrease of black carbon particle concentration in the Beijing area is observed after 2000, and the daily average concentration of black carbon particles is estimated to be 16.0 μg m-3 with a variation range of 2.10 50.50 μg m-3 for the period of 2000 2004. The observation method and main variation behavior characteristics of black carbon particles in the urban atmosphere in the Beijing area are given and discussed.

  16. Ethnic differences in cognitive function over time

    PubMed Central

    Masel, Meredith C.; Peek, M. Kristen

    2009-01-01

    Minority group membership in old age has been implicated as a risk factor for lower scores on cognitive function tests, independent of education level. In addition, differential rates of cognitive decline by ethnic group have been identified in several epidemiologic studies. However, others have not been able to detect differences. METHODS: In order to determine if health disparities in cognitive function scores extend to rates of decline, the current research examined rates of change in memory and mental status over the course of 9 years (1996-2004) in a nationally representative sample of late middle aged and older white, black, and Hispanic adults who were part of the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study. Change in cognitive function was measured by separate indices of memory and mental status items and analyzed with multivariable mixed modeling. RESULTS: Results indicated that, after controlling for demographic, social, and health-related variables, ethnicity was associated with cognitive function scores across waves (P<0.01), but did not greatly impact rates of decline. Furthermore, although education was associated with cognitive function scores across waves (P<0.01), education level did not impact decline rates. PMID:19656690

  17. Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories.

    PubMed

    Yu, Weiwei; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Guo, Yuming; Pan, Xiaochuan; Tong, Shilu

    2011-07-01

    Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.

  18. Riparian vegetation, Colorado River, and climate: five decades of spatiotemporal dynamics in the Grand Canyon with river regulation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sankey, Joel B.; Ralston, Barbara; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Cagney, Laura E.

    2015-01-01

    Documentation of the interacting effects of river regulation and climate on riparian vegetation has typically been limited to small segments of rivers or focused on individual plant species. We examine spatiotemporal variability in riparian vegetation for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon relative to river regulation and climate, over the five decades since completion of the upstream Glen Canyon Dam in 1963. Long-term changes along this highly modified, large segment of the river provide insights for management of similar riparian ecosystems around the world. We analyze vegetation extent based on maps and imagery from eight dates between 1965 and 2009, coupled with the instantaneous hydrograph for the entire period. Analysis confirms a net increase in vegetated area since completion of the dam. Magnitude and timing of such vegetation changes are river stage-dependent. Vegetation expansion is coincident with inundation frequency changes and is unlikely to occur for time periods when inundation frequency exceeds approximately 5%. Vegetation expansion at lower zones of the riparian area is greater during the periods with lower peak and higher base flows, while vegetation at higher zones couples with precipitation patterns and decreases during drought. Short pulses of high flow, such as the controlled floods of the Colorado River in 1996, 2004, and 2008, do not keep vegetation from expanding onto bare sand habitat. Management intended to promote resilience of riparian vegetation must contend with communities that are sensitive to the interacting effects of altered flood regimes and water availability from river and precipitation.

  19. Empirical research on decoupling relationship between energy-related carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong province based on extended Kaya identity.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wenxiu; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhao, Daiqing

    2014-01-01

    The decoupling elasticity decomposition quantitative model of energy-related carbon emission in Guangdong is established based on the extended Kaya identity and Tapio decoupling model for the first time, to explore the decoupling relationship and its internal mechanism between energy-related carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong. Main results are as follows. (1) Total production energy-related carbon emissions in Guangdong increase from 4128 × 10⁴ tC in 1995 to 14396 × 10⁴ tC in 2011. Decoupling elasticity values of energy-related carbon emission and economic growth increase from 0.53 in 1996 to 0.85 in 2011, and its decoupling state turns from weak decoupling in 1996-2004 to expansive coupling in 2005-2011. (2) Land economic output and energy intensity are the first inhibiting factor and the first promoting factor to energy-related carbon emission decoupling from economic growth, respectively. The development speeds of land urbanization and population urbanization, especially land urbanization, play decisive roles in the change of total decoupling elasticity values. (3) Guangdong can realize decoupling of energy-related carbon emission from economic growth effectively by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure, coordinating the development speed of land urbanization and population urbanization effectively, and strengthening the construction of carbon sink.

  20. Geomagnetic response to solar activity: summary for the last ten years and analysis of selected cases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hejda, Pavel; Bochníček, Josef; Valach, Fridrich; Revallo, Miloš

    2014-05-01

    The main sources of geomagnetic disturbances are either coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are usually connected with eruptive flares, or high-speed streams of solar wind from coronal holes. Development of an eruptive flare and ejection of coronal mass is accompanied by magnetic reconnection. The evidence of reconnection can be found in a broad spectrum of observations. The observations of X-rays and radio bursts were used in our study. The geoeffectiveness of solar X-ray flares was initially analysed on data from the period 1996 - 2004 [1]. It was shown that the probability of geomagnetic response depends on the solar flare class and its position on the solar disc. The flares in the central region were found to be more geoeffective. The probability further increased if the flare was accompanied by Type II and/or Type IV of solar radio bursts. In the next step a neural network model was developed to determine the probability, with which flares will be followed by the geomagnetic response of a particular intensity. Enhancement of solar energetic particle flux was added to the set of input parameters. The results indicated that X-ray flares accompanied by solar radio bursts represent a good proxy of CMEs [2, 3]. This conclusion was now confirmed by the data from the period 2005 - 2012. Coronal holes are stable formations that can survive over several solar rotations. Corotating interaction regions (CIRs) between fast and slow solar wind can thus periodically pass over the Earth and cause recurrent geomagnetic storms. This periodicity makes the forecasts of the geomagnetic disturbances much easier [4] than in the case of eruptive phenomena. Our analysis confirmed that the strongest magnetic storms are caused by CMEs. Nevertheless, many geomagnetic disturbances in the active part of solar cycle are influenced by sequences of CMEs and CIRs, which increase their strength. [1] Bochníček, J., P. Hejda and F. Valach, Solar energetic events in the years 1996-2004. The

  1. Evidence for the Nature of Space Weathering Spectral Signatures on Low Albedo Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lantz, Cateline; Clark, B. E.; Barucci, M. A.

    2012-10-01

    We address an existing problem in understanding the reflected light spectral signatures of carbonaceous (low-albedo) asteroids. We know from observations of the moon and high-albedo asteroids that interplanetary surface processes (solar wind and micrometeorite bombardment) can alter the spectral properties of silicates. The problem is that we don’t understand how carbonaceous surfaces respond to surface processes. The question is, what are the spectral signatures of surface processes on low albedo asteroids? To answer this question, we need to study reflected light spectra of asteroid subsurface materials, and compare them with asteroid surface materials. In this work, we assume that primitive asteroids are the parent bodies of carbonaceous chondrites. We begin with a fairly well-established meteorite-asteroid link: several studies have found evidence that links the CM meteorites with the Ch/Cgh asteroids [Hiroi et ao. 1996; Fornasier et al. 1999]. Assuming this link, we reason that differences between spectra of particulate samples of the CM meteorites and spectra of the regolith of the asteroids can be due to either differences in textural properties, or differences caused by surface processes on the asteroid. Previous work has resulted in contradictory predictions. Asteroid color survey data analyzed by Lazzarin et al. (2006) predicted spectral reddening for low albedo asteroids. Laser irradiation experiments by Moroz et al. (1996; 2004; 2004b) indicated both reddening and blueing of various degrees. Our initial results indicate spectral blueing of up to 50%, with little to no concurrent albedo change. We used telescopic observations of 43 Ch and Cgh-type asteroids (0.4 to 2.5 microns) from Binzel, DeMeo, et al. (MIT) and Fornasier et al. (Obs. Paris). We compare them statistically with 106 CM meteorite spectra from RELAB. The goal of this work is to predict what the OSIRIS-REx mission will see at B-type asteroid (101955) 1999RQ36.

  2. ROSSI X-RAY TIMING EXPLORER OBSERVATIONS OF THE LOW-MASS X-RAY BINARY 4U 1608-522 IN THE UPPER-BANANA STATE

    SciTech Connect

    Takahashi, Hiromitsu; Sakurai, Soki; Makishima, Kazuo

    2011-09-01

    To investigate the physics of mass accretion onto weakly magnetized neutron stars (NSs), 95 archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer data sets of an atoll source 4U 1608-522, acquired over 1996-2004 in the so-called upper-banana state, were analyzed. The object meantime exhibited 3-30 keV luminosity in the range of {approx}< 10{sup 35}-4 x 10{sup 37} erg s{sup -1}, assuming a distance of 3.6 kpc. The 3-30 keV Proportional Counter Array spectra, produced one from each data set, were represented successfully with a combination of a soft and a hard component, the presence of which was revealed in a model-independent manner by studying spectral variations among the observations. The soft component is expressed by the so-called multi-color disk model with a temperature of {approx}1.8 keV, and is attributed to the emission from an optically thick standard accretion disk. The hard component is a blackbody (BB) emission with a temperature of {approx}2.7 keV, thought to be emitted from the NS surface. As the total luminosity increases, a continuous decrease is observed in the ratio of the BB luminosity to that of the disk component. This property suggests that it gradually becomes difficult for the matter flowing through the accretion disk to reach the NS surface, presumably forming outflows driven by the increased radiation pressure. On timescales of hours to days, the overall source variability was found to be controlled by two independent variables: the mass accretion rate and the innermost disk radius, which changes both physically and artificially.

  3. Strategies for Monitoring Outcomes in HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children in the United Kingdom.

    PubMed

    Thorne, Claire; Tookey, Pat

    2016-01-01

    Surveillance of pregnancies in women living with HIV is carried out on a national basis in the United Kingdom (UK) through the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood. There are currently around 1100-1200 HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) infants born every year in the UK, where vertical transmission of HIV now occurs in fewer than 5 in every 1000 pregnancies. By the end of 2014, there was a cumulative total of more than 15,000 HEU children with any combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) exposure and more than 5000 with cART exposure from conception in the UK. HEU infants are increasingly being exposed to newer antiretroviral drugs for which less is known regarding both short- and long-term safety. In this commentary, we describe the approaches that have been taken to explore health outcomes in HEU children born in the UK. This includes the Children exposed to AntiRetroviral Therapy (CHART) Study, which was a consented follow-up study carried out in 2002-2005 of HEU children born in 1996-2004. The CHART Study showed that 4% of HEU children enrolled had a major health or development problem in early childhood; this was within expected UK norms, but the study was limited by small numbers and short-term follow-up. However, the problems with recruitment and retention that were encountered within the CHART Study demonstrated that comprehensive, clinic-based follow-up was not a feasible approach for long-term assessment of HEU children in the UK. We describe an alternative approach developed to monitor some aspects of their long-term health, involving the "flagging" of HEU infants for death and cancer registration with the UK Office for National Statistics. Some of the ethical concerns regarding investigation of long-term outcomes of in utero and perinatal exposure to antiretrovirals, including those relating to consent and confidentiality, are also discussed. PMID:27242792

  4. Using drift nets to capture early life stages and monitor spawning of the yangtze river chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wei, Q.W.; Kynard, B.; Yang, D.G.; Chen, X.H.; Du, H.; Shen, L.; Zhang, H.

    2009-01-01

    A sampling system for capturing sturgeon eggs using a D-shaped bottom anchored drift net was used to capture early life stages (ELS) of Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis, and monitor annual spawning success at Yichang on the Yangtze River, 1996-2004, before and just after the Three Gorges Dam began operation. Captured were 96 875 ELS (early life stages: eggs, yolk-sac larvae = eleuthero embryos, and larvae); most were eggs and only 2477 were yolk-sac larvae. Most ELS were captured in the main river channel and inside the bend at the Yichang spawning reach. Yolk-sac larvae were captured for a maximum of 3 days after hatching began, indicating quick dispersal downstream. The back-calculated day of egg fertilization over the eight years indicated a maximum spawning window of 23 days (20 October-10 November). Spawning in all years was restricted temporally, occurred mostly at night and during one or two spawning periods, each lasting several days. The brief temporal spawning window may reduce egg predation by opportunistic predators by flooding the river bottom with millions of eggs. During 1996-2002, the percentage of fertilized eggs in an annual 20-egg sample was between 63.5 to 94.1%; however, in 2003 the percentage fertilized was only 23.8%. This sudden decline may be related to the altered environmental conditions at Yichang caused by operation of the Three Gorges Dam. Further studies are needed to monitor spawning and changes in egg fertilization in this threatened population. ?? 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  5. Rabies in the arctic fox population, Svalbard, Norway.

    PubMed

    Mørk, Torill; Bohlin, Jon; Fuglei, Eva; Åsbakk, Kjetil; Tryland, Morten

    2011-10-01

    Arctic foxes, 620 that were trapped and 22 found dead on Svalbard, Norway (1996-2004), as well as 10 foxes trapped in Nenets, North-West Russia (1999), were tested for rabies virus antigen in brain tissue by standard direct fluorescent antibody test. Rabies antigen was found in two foxes from Svalbard and in three from Russia. Blood samples from 515 of the fox carcasses were screened for rabies antibodies with negative result. Our results, together with a previous screening (1980-1989, n=817) indicate that the prevalence of rabies in Svalbard has remained low or that the virus has not been enzootic in the arctic fox population since the first reported outbreak in 1980. Brain tissues from four arctic foxes (one from Svalbard, three from Russia) in which rabies virus antigen was detected were further analyzed by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction direct amplicon sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Sequences were compared to corresponding sequences from rabies virus isolates from other arctic regions. The Svalbard isolate and two of the Russian isolates were identical (310 nucleotides), whereas the third Russian isolate differed in six nucleotide positions. However, when translated into amino acid sequences, none of these substitutions produced changes in the amino acid sequence. These findings suggest that the spread of rabies virus to Svalbard was likely due to migration of arctic foxes over sea ice from Russia to Svalbard. Furthermore, when compared to other Arctic rabies virus isolates, a high degree of homology was found, suggesting a high contact rate between arctic fox populations from different arctic regions. The high degree of homology also indicates that other, and more variable, regions of the genome than this part of the nucleoprotein gene should be used to distinguish Arctic rabies virus isolates for epidemiologic purposes.

  6. Recent changes of water discharge and sediment load in the Zhujiang (Pearl River) Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shurong; Lu, Xi Xi; Higgitt, David L.; Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Han, Jingtai; Sun, Huiguo

    2008-02-01

    The paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of water and sediment discharge of the Zhujiang (Pearl River), China. The gradual trend test (Mann-Kendall test), and abrupt change test (Pettitt test), have been employed on annual water discharge and sediment load series (from the 1950s-2004) at nine stations in the main channels and main tributaries of the Zhujiang. Both the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests indicate that water discharge at all stations in the Zhujiang Basin showed no significant trend or abrupt shift. Annual water discharges are mainly influenced by precipitation variability, while the construction of reservoirs/dams in the Zhujiang Basin had little influence on water discharge. Sediment load, however, showed significant decreasing trends at some stations in the main channel of the Xijiang and Dongjiang. More stations have seen significantly decreasing trends since the 1990s. The decreasing sediment load in the Zhujiang reflects the impacts of reservoir construction in the basin. In contrast, the Liujiang, the second largest tributary of the Xijiang, has experienced a significant upward shift of sediment load around 1991 likely caused by exacerbated rock desertification in the karst regions. The annual sediment load from the Zhujiang (excluding the delta region) to the estuary has declined from 80.4 × 10 6 t averaged for the period 1957-1995 to 54.0 × 10 6 t for the period 1996-2004. More specifically, the sediment load declined steadily since the early 1990s so that in 2004 it was about one-third of the mean level of pre-90s. Water discharge and sediment load of the Zhujiang would be more affected by human activities in the future with the further reservoir developments, especially the completion of the Datengxia hydroelectric project, and an intensification of the afforestation policy in the drainage basin.

  7. Strategies for Monitoring Outcomes in HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children in the United Kingdom.

    PubMed

    Thorne, Claire; Tookey, Pat

    2016-01-01

    Surveillance of pregnancies in women living with HIV is carried out on a national basis in the United Kingdom (UK) through the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood. There are currently around 1100-1200 HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) infants born every year in the UK, where vertical transmission of HIV now occurs in fewer than 5 in every 1000 pregnancies. By the end of 2014, there was a cumulative total of more than 15,000 HEU children with any combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) exposure and more than 5000 with cART exposure from conception in the UK. HEU infants are increasingly being exposed to newer antiretroviral drugs for which less is known regarding both short- and long-term safety. In this commentary, we describe the approaches that have been taken to explore health outcomes in HEU children born in the UK. This includes the Children exposed to AntiRetroviral Therapy (CHART) Study, which was a consented follow-up study carried out in 2002-2005 of HEU children born in 1996-2004. The CHART Study showed that 4% of HEU children enrolled had a major health or development problem in early childhood; this was within expected UK norms, but the study was limited by small numbers and short-term follow-up. However, the problems with recruitment and retention that were encountered within the CHART Study demonstrated that comprehensive, clinic-based follow-up was not a feasible approach for long-term assessment of HEU children in the UK. We describe an alternative approach developed to monitor some aspects of their long-term health, involving the "flagging" of HEU infants for death and cancer registration with the UK Office for National Statistics. Some of the ethical concerns regarding investigation of long-term outcomes of in utero and perinatal exposure to antiretrovirals, including those relating to consent and confidentiality, are also discussed.

  8. Arrest and detention in international travellers.

    PubMed

    MacPherson, Douglas W; Gushulak, Brian D; Sandhu, James

    2007-07-01

    Systematic published reviews of national arrests of travellers abroad are rare. The pattern of arrest during international travel has implications for travellers and those involved in providing traveller services. There are also consequences for travellers who are arrested and detained abroad. The Consular Affairs Bureau, Foreign Affairs Canada assists Canadian civilians who are abroad. Beginning in 1995 the Consular Management and Operations System was used to track notifications of Canadian arrests abroad. This database was designed for the demographics, destinations, and reported causes of Canadians arrested abroad for 1996-2004. In this period, there were 6514 notifications of arrested Canadians abroad; 1024 (16%) females and 5490 (84%) males with an average age of 33.3 and 36.4 years, respectively. Recorded reasons for arrest were for females: drugs: 420 (41% of females arrested), violence: 75 (7%), other criminal acts: 198 (19%), immigration: 169 (17%), other minor causes: 20 (2%); and for males: drugs: 1554 (28% of males arrested), violence: 581 (11%), other criminal acts: 1468 (27%), immigration: 1056 (20%), other minor causes: 105 (1.9%); or the cause was not recorded for 142 women and 747 men. The USA was the most common host country for arrested Canadians. Alleged drug offences, other criminal activities, and immigration reasons were the most common cited reasons for arrest. Country of arrest reflected the pattern of Canadian international travel for recreation, business, and ancestral linkages. There are a wide-range of potential physical and mental health outcomes to arrest and imprisonment abroad that may be different in foreign jurisdictions due to language, culture, judicial processes and penalties imposed. The prison environment may also pose significant health risks.

  9. Models of the Jovian Ring and Comparisions With Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juhasz, A.; Horanyi, M.

    2008-12-01

    A number of in situ and remote sensing observations of the Jovian ring system exist so we can now combine observations from Voyager, Pioneer, Galileo and Cassini, as well as ground based and HST measurements. In this presentation we will compare this large body of observations to available theoretical models of the dust dynamics in the Jovian ring. Common to all models (Burns et al., 1985, 2001 ; Horanyi et al.,1996, 2004) is the basic idea that dust is being continuously produced due to micro-meteoroid bombardment of the moons in this region. Also, the spatial distribution of dust in the halo region inward of the main ring is generally accepted to be a consequence of electrodynamic perturbations acting on small charged dust particles. However, in the suggested theoretical models the time scale for orbital evolution is drastically differ. Burns et al. argues, that in the main ring, dust particles evolve inward very slowly due to Poynting-Robertson drag. A typical micron sized grain is predicted to orbit Jupiter for 104 years before crashing into the atmosphere of Jupiter. Horanyi et al. argues that the radial transport is due to resonant charge variations, dictated by the plasma density distribution. In this model grains are transported on a time scale that is orders of magnitude shorter than predicted by PR drag. Here we use both of these models to generate brightness distributions and predict optical depth distributions for same geometries and wavelengths as that of the observations. Quantitative comparisons of the modeled and the real observations lead us to the conclusion that the dust transport in ring/halo region at Jupiter is mainly due to resonant charge variation.

  10. Trends in Imaging after Thyroid Cancer Diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Muenz, Daniel G.; Worden, Francis P.; Haymart, Megan R.

    2015-01-01

    Background The largest growth in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) diagnosis is in low-risk cancers. Trends in imaging after DTC diagnosis are understudied. Hypothesizing a reduction in imaging utilization due to rising low-risk disease, we evaluated post-diagnosis imaging patterns over time and patient characteristics that are associated with likelihood of imaging. Methods Using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare database, we identified patients diagnosed with localized, regional or distant DTC between 1991 and 2009. We reviewed Medicare claims for neck ultrasound, I-131 scan, or PET scan within 3 years post-diagnosis. Using regression analyses we evaluated trends of imaging utilization. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the likelihood of imaging based on patient characteristics. Results 23,669 patients were included. Patients diagnosed during 2001-2009, compared to 1991-2000, were more likely to have localized disease (p<0.001) and tumors less than 1cm (p<0.001). Use of neck ultrasound and I-131 scan increased in patients with localized disease (p=<0.001 and p=0.003, respectively), regional disease (p<0.001 and p<0.001), and distant metastasis (p=0.001 and p=0.015). Patients diagnosed after 2000 were more likely to undergo neck ultrasound (OR 2.15, 95% CI 2.02-2.28) and I-131 scan (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.35-1.54). PET scan use from 2005-2009, compared to 1996-2004, increased 32.4-fold (p=<0.001) in localized patients, 13.1-fold (p<0.001) in regional disease patients, and 33.4-fold (p<0.001) in patients with distant DTC. Conclusion Despite a rise in low-risk disease, the use of post-diagnosis imaging increased in all stages of disease. The largest growth was in use of PET scan after 2004. PMID:25565063

  11. A Bayesian back-calculation method to estimate the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada during the period 1996-2011.

    PubMed

    Al-Zoughool, Mustafa; Oraby, Tamer; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Seventeen typical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) were detected in Canada the period of 2003-2011. The clinical incidence of BSE was censored by early slaughter, death, or exportation of infected cattle due to the long incubation period of BSE disease. The aim of this study was to estimate the infection incidence of BSE in birth cohorts during 1996-2004 and project infection frequency through to 2007. An estimate of the number of asymptomatic infected cattle slaughtered for human consumption is also provided. The number of incident, asymptomatic cases was assumed to follow a Poisson process. A Bayesian back-calculation approach was used to project the risk of contracting BSE in those birth cohorts. Model parameters and inputs were taken from scientific literature and governmental data sources. The projected number of infected cattle in birth cohorts spanning the period 1996-2007 was 492, with median 95% credible interval 258-830. If the requirement to remove specified risk material (SRM) from cattle prior to entering the food chain was not in place, the predicted number of slaughtered infected in the human food chain from 1996-2010 was 298, with a 95% credible interval 156-500. The magnitude of the BSE epidemic in Canada for 1996-2007 birth cohorts was estimated to be approximately 28-fold higher than the number of clinical cases detected through to October 2011. Although some of those cattle were slaughtered for human consumption, the requirement of SRM removal may have prevented most of the infectious material from entering the food chain. PMID:27556564

  12. Fall Chinook Salmon Spawning Ground Surveys in the Snake River Basin Upriver of Lower Granite Dam, 2004 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, A.P.; Bradbury, S.; Arnsberg, B.D.; Rocklage, S.J.; Groves, P.A.

    2005-10-01

    Redd counts were used to document the spawning distribution of fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Snake River basin upriver of Lower Granite Dam. The first reported redd counts were from aerial searches conducted intermittently between 1959 and 1978 (Irving and Bjornn 1981, Witty 1988; Groves and Chandler 1996)(Appendix 1). In 1986, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife began an annual monitoring program that, in addition to the Snake River, included aerial searches of the Grande Ronde River the first year (Seidel and Bugert 1987), and the Imnaha River in subsequent years (Seidel et al. 1988; Bugert et al. 1989-1991; Mendel et al. 1992). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Idaho Power Company began contributing to this effort in 1991 by increasing the number of aerial searches conducted each year and adding underwater searches in areas of the Snake River that were too deep to be searched from the air (Connor et al. 1993; Garcia et al. 1994a, 1994b, 1996-2004; Groves 1993; Groves and Chandler 1996). The Nez Perce Tribe added aerial searches in the Clearwater River basin beginning in 1988 (Arnsberg et. al 1992), and the Salmon River beginning in 1992. Currently searches are conducted cooperatively by the Nez Perce Tribe, Idaho Power Company, and U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Our objective for this report was to consolidate the findings from annual redd searches into a single document, containing detailed information about the searches from the most recent spawning season, and summary information from previous years. The work conducted in 2004 was funded by the Bonneville Power Administration, Idaho Power Company, and Bureau of Land Management.

  13. Stochastic approaches for time series forecasting of boron: a case study of Western Turkey.

    PubMed

    Durdu, Omer Faruk

    2010-10-01

    In the present study, a seasonal and non-seasonal prediction of boron concentrations time series data for the period of 1996-2004 from Büyük Menderes river in western Turkey are addressed by means of linear stochastic models. The methodology presented here is to develop adequate linear stochastic models known as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to predict boron content in the Büyük Menderes catchment. Initially, the Box-Whisker plots and Kendall's tau test are used to identify the trends during the study period. The measurements locations do not show significant overall trend in boron concentrations, though marginal increasing and decreasing trends are observed for certain periods at some locations. ARIMA modeling approach involves the following three steps: model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking. In the model identification step, considering the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) results of boron data series, different ARIMA models are identified. The model gives the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) is selected as the best-fit model. The parameter estimation step indicates that the estimated model parameters are significantly different from zero. The diagnostic check step is applied to the residuals of the selected ARIMA models and the results indicate that the residuals are independent, normally distributed, and homoscadastic. For the model validation purposes, the predicted results using the best ARIMA models are compared to the observed data. The predicted data show reasonably good agreement with the actual data. The comparison of the mean and variance of 3-year (2002-2004) observed data vs predicted data from the selected best models show that the boron model from ARIMA modeling approaches could be used in a safe manner since the predicted values from these models preserve the basic

  14. The effects of national and international HIV/AIDS funding and governance mechanisms on the development of civil-society responses to HIV/AIDS in East and Southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Kevin J; Birdsall, Karen

    2010-01-01

    The study takes stock of the exponential growth in the number of new civil-society organisations (CSOs) working in the HIV/AIDS field in East and Southern Africa during the period 1996-2004. We researched this development through a survey of 439 CSOs in six countries and case studies focused on the evolution of community responses to HIV/AIDS in specific communities in eight countries. We describe the types of CSOs that emerged, their relationships with governments and donors, and their activities, organisational characteristics and funding requirements. The data presented show that the vision of social mobilisation of HIV/AIDS responses through community-level organisations has faced strong external challenges. Evidence from survey data, national HIV/AIDS spending assessments and case studies shows that in some respects the changing international aid environment undermines the prospects for development of the civil-society sector's contributions in HIV/AIDS responses. Of particular interest is to understand how the "Three Ones" and the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness have reshaped international funding for HIV/AIDS responses. There has been relatively little attention paid to the impact of the new management and funding modalities--including national performance frameworks, general budget support, joint funding arrangements and basket funds--on civil-society agencies at the forefront of community HIV/AIDS responses. Evidence is presented to show that in important respects the new modalities limit the unique contribution that CSOs can make to national HIV/AIDS responses. It is also shown that the drive to rapidly intensify the scale of HIV/AIDS responses has involved using community organisations as service providers for externally formulated programmes. We discuss this as a strong threat to the development of sustainable civil-society economies as well as to CSOs' diversity and responsiveness. The ways in which CSOs are responding to these challenges are

  15. Temporal trend and source apportionment of water pollution in different functional zones of Qiantang River, China.

    PubMed

    Su, Shiliang; Li, Dan; Zhang, Qi; Xiao, Rui; Huang, Fang; Wu, Jiaping

    2011-02-01

    The increasingly serious river water pollution in developing countries poses great threat to environmental health and human welfare. The assignment of river function to specific uses, known as zoning, is a useful tool to reveal variations of water environmental adaptability to human impact. Therefore, characterizing the temporal trend and identifying responsible pollution sources in different functional zones could greatly improve our knowledge about human impacts on the river water environment. The aim of this study is to obtain a deeper understanding of temporal trends and sources of water pollution in different functional zones with a case study of the Qiantang River, China. Measurement data were obtained and pretreated for 13 variables from 41 monitoring sites in four categories of functional zones during the period 1996-2004. An exploratory approach, which combines smoothing and non-parametric statistical tests, was applied to characterize trends of four significant parameters (permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, total cadmium and fluoride) accounting for differences among different functional zones identified by discriminant analysis. Aided by GIS, yearly pollution index (PI) for each monitoring site was further mapped to compare the within-group variations in temporal dynamics for different functional zones. Rotated principal component analysis and receptor model (absolute principle component score-multiple linear regression, APCS-MLR) revealed that potential pollution sources and their corresponding contributions varied among the four functional zones. Variations of APCS values for each site of one functional zone as well as their annual average values highlighted the uncertainties associated with cross space-time effects in source apportionment. All these results reinforce the notion that the concept of zoning should be taken seriously in water pollution control. Being applicable to other rivers, the framework of management-oriented source apportionment

  16. Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer Observations of the Low-mass X-ray Binary 4U 1608-522 in the Upper-banana State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Hiromitsu; Sakurai, Soki; Makishima, Kazuo

    2011-09-01

    To investigate the physics of mass accretion onto weakly magnetized neutron stars (NSs), 95 archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer data sets of an atoll source 4U 1608-522, acquired over 1996-2004 in the so-called upper-banana state, were analyzed. The object meantime exhibited 3-30 keV luminosity in the range of <~ 1035-4 × 1037 erg s-1, assuming a distance of 3.6 kpc. The 3-30 keV Proportional Counter Array spectra, produced one from each data set, were represented successfully with a combination of a soft and a hard component, the presence of which was revealed in a model-independent manner by studying spectral variations among the observations. The soft component is expressed by the so-called multi-color disk model with a temperature of ~1.8 keV, and is attributed to the emission from an optically thick standard accretion disk. The hard component is a blackbody (BB) emission with a temperature of ~2.7 keV, thought to be emitted from the NS surface. As the total luminosity increases, a continuous decrease is observed in the ratio of the BB luminosity to that of the disk component. This property suggests that it gradually becomes difficult for the matter flowing through the accretion disk to reach the NS surface, presumably forming outflows driven by the increased radiation pressure. On timescales of hours to days, the overall source variability was found to be controlled by two independent variables: the mass accretion rate and the innermost disk radius, which changes both physically and artificially.

  17. E-MORB- And OIB-Type Metabasalts From The Karakaya Complex: Trace Element Evidence For Melting Across The Spinel-Garnet Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayit, K.; Göncüoglu, M.; Furman, T.

    2008-12-01

    The variably metamorphosed and deformed pre-Liassic Karakaya Complex that covers much of Northern Anatolia comprises abundant metabasalts with subordinate gabbroic and ultramafic rocks. In Central and Western Anatolia, these mafic and ultramafic rocks with enriched geochemical signatures form an extensive melange unit within this ancient subduction/accretion complex and holds a key to the understanding of Palaeotethys events. However, the tectonic setting of these mafic and ultramafic rocks is controversial, as they are interpreted as relics of a continental rift (e.g. Bingol et al. 1973), an oceanic plateau (Okay 2000), oceanic island(s) and/or seamount(s) (Pickett and Robertson 1996, 2004; Yaliniz and Goncuoglu 2002; Sayit and Goncuoglu 2007) or an oceanic plateau associated with seamounts (Genc 2004). Metaigneous rocks from Central and Western Anatolia are dominantly alkaline with minor tholeiitic units as characterized by incompatible element abundance patterns. They are variably enriched in LREE and incompatible elements relative to N-MORB, with 'hump-backed' patterns similar to E-MORB and OIB-type magmas; they lack negative Nb-Ta anomalies. The fractionation of LREE compared to HREE ([La/Yb]N = 1.9-23.0) suggests that garnet was a residual phase during genesis of these rocks. Little or no crustal involvement is suggested by high Ti/Yb (ave = 7318) and Nb/U (ave = 50) values, as well as the absence of negative Nb-Ta anomalies. They plot within the MORB array on Th/Yb vs Nb/Yb, and their low La/Ta (ave = 11.8), La/Nb (ave = 0.7) values indicate derivation from asthenospheric sources with no crustal involvement. Geochemical modelling based on REE ratios reveals that the studied samples could have been generated by involvement of both spinel- and garnet-facies mantle sources. The Karakaya metaigneous rocks can be modelled by mixing of 5% spinel-facies partial melts with 0.5-5% partial melts derived from garnet-bearing mantle source. We suggest that the OIB

  18. Potential Contribution of Particulate Organic Matter in the Mississippi River to Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kendall, C.; Silva, S. R.

    2005-05-01

    Episodic hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico has drawn attention to high levels of nitrate in the Mississippi Basin that may be fueling algal productivity in the Gulf and resulting in low levels of dissolved oxygen. However, about half the N being transported in the Mississippi River is in the form of dissolved organic matter, and if much of it is bioavailable, it may be an important contributor to hypoxia in the Gulf. Since autochthonous organic matter is probably more bioavailable than terrestrial detritus, determination of (1) the relative contributions of different sources of particulate organic matter (POM) and (2) how controls on POM sources, characteristics, and lability vary both temporally and spatially, may provide critical information about other factors contributing to hypoxia. Therefore, riverine POM samples were collected bi-weekly to monthly from 30 USGS NASQAN sites in the Mississippi River Basin from 1996-2004, and analyzed for d13C, d15N, and C:N. These samples demonstrate that there is considerable temporal and spatial variation in the composition of fine-sized POM. A four-source mixing model (plankton, fresh terrestrial plant material, macrophytes, and soil organic material) is used to differentiate general sources of POM using d13C, d15N, and C:N ratios. Average values of d13C and C:N indicate that plankton and heterotrophic bacteria account for approximately half of the POM in the Basin, with higher percentages of plankton downstream of reservoirs and lower percentages in the mainstem of the river. Temporal patterns of d13C are complex but low d13C and C:N values in spring and summer suggest the occurrence of plankton blooms, whereas relatively elevated values in fall and winter are consistent with greater proportions of decaying macrophytes and/or terrestrial material. Many sites also show seasonal trends in d15N. Although soil and macrophyte detritus have overlapping d13C and C:N values, their relative contributions can be distinguished at many

  19. Use of the AGNPS model to assess impacts of development and best management practices in an urban watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, J. A.

    2006-12-01

    A Geographical Information System (GIS) is an invaluable tool in the estimation of land use changes and spatial variability in urban areas. (Non-Point Source (NPS) models provide hypothetical opportunities to assess impacts which storm water management strategies and land use changes have on watersheds by predicting loadings on a watershed scale. This study establishes a methodology for analyzing land use changes and management associated with them by utilizing a GIS analysis of impervious surfaces and AGricultural Non- Point Source (AGNPS) modeling. The GIS analysis of Total Impervious Area (TIA) was used to quantify increases in development and provided land use data for use in AGNPS modeling in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. AGNPS modeling was executed in several different scenarios to predict changes in NPS loadings associated with increases in TIA and its subsequent management in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. Data editing, creation and extracting was completed using ArcView (3.2) GeoMedia (6) GIS systems. The GIS analysis quantified the increase in urbanization via TIA within the Bluebonnet Swamp Watershed (BSW) in East Baton Rouge Parish (EBRP), Louisiana. The BSW had significant increases in urbanization in the 8 year time span of 1996 2004 causing and increase in quantity and decrease in quality of subsequent runoff. Datasets made available from the GIS analysis included TIA and the change in percentage from 1996 to 2004. This information is fundamental for the AGNPS model because it was used to calculate TIA percentages within each AGNPS cell. A 30 year daily climate file was used to execute AGNPS in different land use and storm water management scenarios within the 1100 acre BSW. Runoff qualities and quantities were then compared for different periods of 1996 and 2004. Predictions of sediment, erosion and runoff were compared according by scenario year. Management practices were also simulated by changing the Runoff

  20. Sediment Transport During Three Controlled-Flood Experiments on the Colorado River Downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, with Implications for Eddy-Sandbar Deposition in Grand Canyon National Park

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Grams, Paul E.; Griffiths, Ronald E.; Sabol, Thomas A.; Voichick, Nicholas; Tusso, Robert B.; Vanaman, Karen M.; McDonald, Richard R.

    2010-01-01

    Three large-scale field experiments were conducted on the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam in 1996, 2004, and 2008 to evaluate whether artificial (that is, controlled) floods released from the dam could be used in conjunction with the sand supplied by downstream tributaries to rebuild and sustainably maintain eddy sandbars in the river in Grand Canyon National Park. Higher suspended-sand concentrations during a controlled flood will lead to greater eddy-sandbar deposition rates. During each controlled flood experiment, sediment-transport and bed-sediment data were collected to evaluate sediment-supply effects on sandbar deposition. Data collection substantially increased in spatial and temporal density with each subsequent experiment. The suspended- and bed-sediment data collected during all three controlled-flood experiments are presented and analyzed in this report. Analysis of these data indicate that in designing the hydrograph of a controlled flood that is optimized for sandbar deposition in a given reach of the Colorado River, both the magnitude and the grain size of the sand supply must be considered. Because of the opposing physical effects of bed-sand area and bed-sand grain size in regulating suspended-sand concentration, larger amounts of coarser sand on the bed can lead to lower suspended-sand concentrations, and thus lower rates of sandbar deposition, during a controlled flood than can lesser amounts of finer sand on the bed. Although suspended-sand concentrations were higher at all study sites during the 2008 controlled-flood experiment (CFE) than during either the 1996 or 2004 CFEs, these higher concentrations were likely associated with more sand on the bed of the Colorado River in only lower Glen Canyon. More sand was likely present on the bed of the river in Grand Canyon during the 1996 CFE than during either the 2004 or 2008 CFEs. The question still remains as to whether sandbars can be sustained in the Colorado River in Grand

  1. Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) Generated by Corotating Interaction Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, I. G.; Webb, D. F.; Zhang, J.; Berdichevsky, B. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Kasper, J. C.; Kataoka, R.; Steinberg, J. T.; Thompson, B. J.; Wu, C.-C.; Zhukov, A. N.

    2006-01-01

    Seventy-nine major geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) observed in 1996 to 2004 were the focus of a Living with a Star Coordinated Data-Analysis Workshop (CDAW) in March, 2005. In 9 cases, the storm driver appears to have been purely a corotating interaction region (CIR) without any contribution from coronal mass ejection-related material (interplanetary coronal mass ejections, ICMEs). These storms were generated by structures within CIRs located both before and/or after the stream interface that included persistently southward magnetic fields for intervals of several hours. We compare their geomagnetic effects with those of 159 CIRs observed during 1996 - 2005. The major storms form the extreme tail of a continuous distribution of CIR geoeffectiveness which peaks at Dst approx. -40 nT but is subject to a prominent seasonal variation of - 40 nT which is ordered by the spring and fall equinoxes and the solar wind magnetic field direction towards or away from the Sun. The O'Brien and McPherron [2000] equations, which estimate Dst by integrating the incident solar wind electric field and incorporating a ring current loss term, largely account for the variation in storm size. They tend to underestimate the size of the larger CIR-associated storms by Dst approx. 20 nT. This suggests that injection into the ring current may be more efficient than expected in such storms. Four of the nine major storms in 1996 - 2004 occurred during a period of less than three solar rotations in September - November, 2002, also the time of maximum mean IMF and solar magnetic field intensity during the current solar cycle. The maximum CIR-storm strength found in our sample of events, plus additional 23 probable CIR-associated Dst less than or equal to -100 nT storms in 1972 - 1995, is (Dst = -161 nT). This is consistent with the maximum storm strength (Dst approx. -180 nT) expected from the O'Brien and McPherron equations for the typical range of solar wind

  2. Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Moore, Ron; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    We have recently developed a method of predicting an active region s probability of producing a CME, an X-class Flare, an M-class Flare, or a Solar Energetic Particle Event from a free-energy proxy measured from SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. This year we have added three major improvements to our forecast tool: 1) Transition from MDI magnetogram to SDO/HMI magnetogram allowing us near-real-time forecasts, 2) Automation of acquisition and measurement of HMI magnetograms giving us near-real-time forecasts (no older than 2 hours), and 3) Determination of how to improve forecast by using the active region s previous flare history in combination with its free-energy proxy. HMI was turned on in May 2010 and MDI was turned off in April 2011. Using the overlap period, we have calibrated HMI to yield what MDI would measure. This is important since the value of the free-energy proxy used for our forecast is resolution dependent, and the forecasts are made from results of a 1996-2004 database of MDI observations. With near-real-time magnetograms from HMI, near-real-time forecasts are now possible. We have augmented the code so that it continually acquires and measures new magnetograms as they become available online, and updates the whole-sun forecast from the coming day. The next planned improvement is to use an active region s previous flare history, in conjunction with its free-energy proxy, to forecast the active region s event rate. It has long been known that active regions that have produced flares in the past are likely to produce flares in the future, and that active regions that are nonpotential (have large free-energy) are more likely to produce flares in the future. This year we have determined that persistence of flaring is not just a reflection of an active region s free energy. In other words, after controlling for free energy, we have found that active regions that have flared recently are more likely to flare in the future.

  3. Fire history and fire-climate relationships in upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margolis, Ellis Quinn

    Fire history and fire-climate relationships of upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States are imperative for informing management decisions in the face of increased crown fire occurrence and climate change. I used dendroecological techniques to reconstruct fires and stand-replacing fire patch size in the Madrean Sky Islands and Mogollon Plateau. Reconstructed patch size (1685-1904) was compared with contemporary patch size (1996-2004). Reconstructed fires at three sites had stand-replacing patches totaling > 500 ha. No historical stand-replacing fire patches were evident in the mixed conifer/aspen forests of the Sky Islands. Maximum stand-replacing fire patch size of modern fires (1129 ha) was greater than that reconstructed from aspen (286 ha) and spruce-fir (521 ha). Undated spruce-fir patches may be evidence of larger (>2000ha) stand-replacing fire patches. To provide climatological context for fire history I used correlation and regionalization analyses to document spatial and temporal variability in climate regions, and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) teleconnections using 273 tree-ring chronologies (1732-1979). Four regions were determined by common variability in annual ring width. The component score time series replicate spatial variability in 20th century droughts (e.g., 1950's) and pluvials (e.g., 1910's). Two regions were significantly correlated with instrumental SOI and AMO, and three with PDO. Sub-regions within the southwestern U.S. varied geographically between the instrumental (1900-1979) and the pre-instrumental periods (1732-1899). Mapped correlations between ENSO, PDO and AMO, and tree-ring indices illustrate detailed sub-regional variability in the teleconnections. I analyzed climate teleconnections, and fire-climate relationships of historical upper elevation fires from 16 sites in 8 mountain ranges. I tested for links between Palmer

  4. The effects of national and international HIV/AIDS funding and governance mechanisms on the development of civil-society responses to HIV/AIDS in East and Southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Kevin J; Birdsall, Karen

    2010-01-01

    The study takes stock of the exponential growth in the number of new civil-society organisations (CSOs) working in the HIV/AIDS field in East and Southern Africa during the period 1996-2004. We researched this development through a survey of 439 CSOs in six countries and case studies focused on the evolution of community responses to HIV/AIDS in specific communities in eight countries. We describe the types of CSOs that emerged, their relationships with governments and donors, and their activities, organisational characteristics and funding requirements. The data presented show that the vision of social mobilisation of HIV/AIDS responses through community-level organisations has faced strong external challenges. Evidence from survey data, national HIV/AIDS spending assessments and case studies shows that in some respects the changing international aid environment undermines the prospects for development of the civil-society sector's contributions in HIV/AIDS responses. Of particular interest is to understand how the "Three Ones" and the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness have reshaped international funding for HIV/AIDS responses. There has been relatively little attention paid to the impact of the new management and funding modalities--including national performance frameworks, general budget support, joint funding arrangements and basket funds--on civil-society agencies at the forefront of community HIV/AIDS responses. Evidence is presented to show that in important respects the new modalities limit the unique contribution that CSOs can make to national HIV/AIDS responses. It is also shown that the drive to rapidly intensify the scale of HIV/AIDS responses has involved using community organisations as service providers for externally formulated programmes. We discuss this as a strong threat to the development of sustainable civil-society economies as well as to CSOs' diversity and responsiveness. The ways in which CSOs are responding to these challenges are

  5. Postdam evolution of aeolian landscapes in the Colorado River corridor through Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Draut, A. E.; Collins, B. D.; Fairley, H. C.; Rubin, D. M.

    2009-12-01

    floods” (1160 m3/s), which occurred in 1996, 2004, and 2008. Dune fields downwind and within 100 m of controlled-flood sandbars tend to have higher sand-transport rates, more open sand, and less biologic soil crust than relict dune fields. They also generally have less vegetation, although vegetation has increased in some dune fields of each type over the study interval (2003 to present). We anticipate that, if current dam operations (with occasional sediment-rich 1160 m3/s flows) continue, greater differences in sand mobility, open sand area, biologic soil crust, and vegetation will develop between modern- and relict-sediment-sourced aeolian landscapes.

  6. Integrated Geoscience Studies in the Greater Yellowstone Area - Volcanic, Tectonic, and Hydrothermal Processes in the Yellowstone Geoecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morgan, Lisa A.

    2007-01-01

    Yellowstone ecosystem as influenced by the Yellowstone hotspot. Another paper by Paul Carrara describes the recent movement of a large landslide block dated by tree-ring analyses in the Tower Falls area. The section under Yellowstone Lake studies begins with a classic paper by J. David Love and others on ancestral Lake Yellowstone. Other papers in this section include results and interpretation of the high-resolution bathymetric, seismic reflection, and submersible studies by Lisa Morgan and others. Ken Pierce and others describe results from their studies of shorelines along Yellowstone Lake and their interpretation of inflation-deflation cycles, tilting, and faulting in the Yellowstone caldera. The influence of sublacustrine hydrothermal vent fluids on the geochemistry of Yellowstone Lake is described by Laurie Balistrieri and others. In Pat Shanks and others' chapter, hydrothermal reactions, stable-isotope systematics, sinter deposition, and spire formation are related to the geochemistry of sublacustrine hydrothermal deposits in Yellowstone Lake. The geochemical studies section considers park-wide geochemical systems in Yellowstone National Park. In Bob Rye and Alfred Truesdell's paper, the question of recharge to the deep thermal reservoir underlying the geysers and hot springs of Yellowstone National Park is discussed. Irving Friedman and Dan Norton report on the chloride flux emissions from Yellowstone in their paper questioning whether Yellowstone is losing its steam. Wildlife issues as addressed by examining trace-element and stable-isotope geochemistry are discussed in a chapter by Maurice Chaffee and others. In another chapter by Chaffee and others, natural and anthropogenic anomalies and their potential impact on the environment using geochemistry is reported. Pam Gemery-Hill and others present geochemical data for selected rivers, lake waters, hydrothermal vents, and subaerial geysers for the time interval of 1996-2004. The life cycle of gold deposits near th

  7. Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death

  8. Effects of Experimental High Flow Releases and Increased Fluctuations in Flow from Glen Canyon Dam on Abundance, Growth, and Survival Rates of Early Life Stages of Rainbow Trout in the Lee's Ferry Reach of the Colorado River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korman, Josh

    2010-05-01

    The abundance of adult fish populations is controlled by the growth and survival rates of early life stages. Evaluating the effects of flow regimes on early life stages is therefore critical to determine how these regimes affect the abundance of adult populations. Experimental high flow releases from Glen Canyon Dam, primarily intended to conserve fine sediment and improve habitat conditions for native fish in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, AZ, have been conducted in 1996, 2004, and 2008. These flows potentially affect the Lee's Ferry reach rainbow trout population, located immediately downstream of the dam, which supports a highly valued fishery and likely influences the abundance of rainbow trout in Grand Canyon. Due to concerns about negative effects of high trout abundance on endangered native fish, hourly variation in flow from Glen Canyon Dam was experimentally increased between 2003 and 2005 to reduce trout abundance. This study reports on the effects of experimental high flow releases and fluctuating flows on early life stages of rainbow trout in the Lee's Ferry reach based on monthly sampling of redds (egg nests) and the abundance and growth of age-0 trout between 2003 and 2009. Data on spawn timing, spawning elevations, and intergravel temperatures were integrated in a model to estimate the magnitude and seasonal trend in incubation mortality resulting from redd dewatering due to fluctuations in flow. Experimental fluctuations from January through March promoted spawning at higher elevations where the duration of dewatering was longer and intergravel temperatures exceeded lethal thresholds. Flow-dependent incubation mortality rates were 24% (2003) and 50% (2004) in years with higher flow fluctuations, compared to 5-11% under normal operations (2006-2009). Spatial and temporal predictions of mortality were consistent with direct observations of egg mortality determined from the excavation of 125 redds. The amount of variation in backcalculated hatch

  9. Design and Build of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway considering the Impacts of Warming Climate and Permafrost

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, W.; Jin, H.; Cheng, G.; Wu, Q.; Lai, Y.

    2005-12-01

    During the period from 1960 to 2000, an 1°C increase of air temperature has been observed along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway (QTR) traversing 632 km of warm and ice-rich permafrost through the interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Correspondingly, mean annual ground temperatures (MAGTs) of warm (>-1 °C) permafrost on average increased about 0.3 to 0.5°C during 1970s-1990, while that of colder permafrost had increased by 0.1 to 0.3°C. During 1996-2004, ground temperatures at the permafrost table were increasing at the rates of 0.01-0.08°C a-1, and the permafrost table was lowering at the rates of 2.6 to 6.6 cm a-1; and the ground temperatures at depths of 6 to 8 m were warming at the rates of 0.02 to 0.05°C a-1. Consequently, the strengths of permafrost as the foundation of the QTR would be weakened if proper engineering measures were not taken. Based on the experiences and lessons learned from the road construction in permafrost regions from Alaska, Canada and Russia, and northeastern China, and taking into consideration of possible climatic warming along the QTR during the next 100 years, the design and construction of the QTR adopted the principle of``cooling the roadbed'' because most of the permafrost along the route is too deep to be thawed, too thermally sensitive to climatic warming and too critical to have appreciable thaw settlements. About 550 km of QTR is in continuous permafrost zone, 82 km is in discontinuous permafrost zone; 275 km is in warm permafrost areas, and 110 km of permafrost is ice-rich. The QTR is designed for safe operations during the next 100 years during which a warming of 2.2 to 2.6°C by 2050 is projected. Without engineering measures to keep ground frozen or maintain the settlement within the acceptable limits, thaw settlement in the foundation soils, and induced environmental instability would threaten the integrity and safety of QTR operation. However, only increasing therma resistance, such as increasing fill thickness or

  10. Short-Term Effects of the 2008 High-Flow Experiment on Macroinvertebrates in Colorado River Below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosi-Marshall, Emma J.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Kincaid, Dustin W.; Cross, Wyatt F.; Kelly, Holly A.W.; Behn, Kathrine A.; White, Tyler; Hall, Robert O.; Baxter, Colden V.

    2010-01-01

    Glen Canyon Dam has dramatically altered the physical environment (especially discharge regime, water temperatures, and sediment inputs) of the Colorado River. High-flow experiments (HFE) that mimic one aspect of the natural hydrograph (floods) were implemented in 1996, 2004, and 2008. The primary goal of these experiments was to increase the size and total area of sandbar habitats that provide both camping sites for recreational users and create backwaters (areas of stagnant flow in the lee of return-current eddies) that may be important as rearing habitat for native fish. Experimental flows might also positively or negatively alter the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) sport fishery in the clear tailwater reach below Glen Canyon Dam, Ariz., and native fish populations in downstream reaches (for example, endangered humpback chub, Gila cypha) through changes in available food resources. We examined the short-term response of benthic macroinvertebrates to the March 2008 HFE at three sites [river mile 0 (RM 0, 15.7 miles downriver from the dam), RM 62, and RM 225] along the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam by sampling immediately before and then 1, 7, 14, and 30 days after the HFE. We selected these sites because of their importance to management; RM 0 has a valuable trout fishery, and RM 62 is the location of the largest population of the endangered humpback chub in the Grand Canyon. In addition to the short-term collection of samples, as part of parallel investigations, we collected 3 years of monthly (quarterly for RM 62) benthic macroinvertebrate samples that included 15 months of post-HFE data for all three sites, but processing of the samples is only complete for one site (RM 0). At RM 0, the HFE caused an immediate 1.75 g AFDM/m2 (expressed as grams ash-free dry mass, or AFDM) reduction of macroinvertebrate biomass that was driven by significant reductions in the biomass of the two dominant taxa in this reach-Potamopyrgus antipodarum (New