Science.gov

Sample records for 5-percent probability million

  1. 26 CFR 301.6226(b)-1 - 5-percent group.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... beginning prior to October 4, 2001, see § 301.6226(b)-1T contained in 26 CFR part 1, revised April 1, 2001. ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false 5-percent group. 301.6226(b)-1 Section 301.6226... ADMINISTRATION PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION Assessment In General § 301.6226(b)-1 5-percent group. (a) In...

  2. 26 CFR 301.6226(b)-1 - 5-percent group.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... beginning prior to October 4, 2001, see § 301.6226(b)-1T contained in 26 CFR part 1, revised April 1, 2001. ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false 5-percent group. 301.6226(b)-1 Section 301.6226... ADMINISTRATION PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION Assessment In General § 301.6226(b)-1 5-percent group. (a) In...

  3. 30 CFR 57.22233 - Actions at 0.5 percent methane (I-C mines).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Actions at 0.5 percent methane (I-C mines). 57... MINES Safety Standards for Methane in Metal and Nonmetal Mines Ventilation § 57.22233 Actions at 0.5 percent methane (I-C mines). If methane reaches 0.5 percent in the mine atmosphere, ventilation...

  4. Median CBO Salary Rises by 4.5 Percent, Annual Study Finds.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Business Officer, 1997

    1997-01-01

    An annual national survey of college and university salaries found chief business officers' salaries rose 4.5 percent in 1996-97, less than the previous year. Salaries of women and minority CBOs continued to gain equity with that of men. Rates of increase varied by institution type. Salary gains for all administrative job types were less than in…

  5. The JPL 1.5-meter clear aperture antenna with 84.5 percent efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cha, A. G.

    1983-05-01

    The theoretical and experimental study of a 1.5-meter offset dual shaped reflector at 31.4 GHz is detailed. An efficiency of 84.5 percent, a likely new record for reflector antennas, was ascertained through careful measurements. For larger low noise reflector systems, a 2- to 3-dB improvement in G/T performance over the state of the art ultra low noise ground stations and 90 percent or better aperture efficiency now appear feasible.

  6. The JPL 1.5-meter Clear Aperture Antenna with 84.5 Percent Efficiency

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cha, A. G.

    1983-01-01

    The theoretical and experimental study of a 1.5-meter offset dual shaped reflector at 31.4 GHz is detailed. An efficiency of 84.5 percent, a likely new record for reflector antennas, was ascertained through careful measurements. For larger low noise reflector systems, a 2- to 3-dB improvement in G/T performance over the state of the art ultra low noise ground stations and 90 percent or better aperture efficiency now appear feasible.

  7. Evaluation of EA-934NA with 2.5 percent Cab-O-Sil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Caldwell, Gordon A.

    1990-01-01

    Currently, Hysol adhesive EA-934NA is used to bond the Field Joint Protection System on the Shuttle rocket motors at Kennedy Space Center. However, due to processing problems, an adhesive with a higher viscosity is needed to alleviate these difficulties. One possible solution is to add Cab-O-Sil to the current adhesive. The adhesive strength and bond strengths that can be obtained when 2.5 percent Cab-O-Sil is added to adhesive EA-934NA are examined and tested over a range of test temperatures from -20 to 300 F. Tensile adhesion button and lap shear specimens were bonded to D6AC steel and uniaxial tensile specimens (testing for strength, initial tangent modulus, elongation and Poisson's ratio) were prepared using Hysol adhesive EA-934NA with 2.5 percent Cab-O-Sil added. These specimens were tested at -20, 20, 75, 100, 125, 150, 200, 250, and 300 F, respectively. Additional tensile adhesion button specimens bonding Rust-Oleum primed and painted D6AC steel to itself and to cork using adhesive EA-934NA with 2.5 percent Cab-O-Sil added were tested at 20, 75, 125, 200, and 300 F, respectively. Results generally show decreasing strength values with increasing test temperatures. The bond strengths obtained using cork as a substrate were totally dependent on the cohesive strength of the cork.

  8. Hemodynamic, hematologic and eicosanoid mediated mechanisms in 7.5 percent sodium chloride treatment of uncontrolled hemorrhagic shock.

    PubMed

    Rabinovici, R; Yue, T L; Krausz, M M; Sellers, T S; Lynch, K M; Feuerstein, G

    1992-10-01

    Hypertonic saline solution (HTS) (7.5 percent sodium chloride [NaCl]) treatment (5 milliliters per kilogram) of rats subjected to uncontrolled hemorrhagic shock (n = 7) caused an initial partial recovery of blood pressure (+38 +/- 5 percent, p<0.05) and cardiac index (+48 +/- 6 percent, p<0.01) followed by increased bleeding (+53 +/- 5 percent versus rats treated with 0.9 percent NaCl, p<0.05), secondary shock (mean arterial pressure [MAP] 23 +/- 7 millimeters of mercury, p<0.01) and decreased survival (-54 +/- 15 minutes versus control, p<0.05). The increased blood loss resulted from: 1, increased vascular pressure and vasodilatation (total peripheral resistance index -27 +/- 5 percent, p<0.05), as initial bleeding occurred when MAP and cardiac index are increased compared with the control group (+88 +/- 10 percent, p<0.05 and +82 +/- 7 percent, p<0.01, respectively) and as the concomitant infusion of angiotensin II, a potent vasoconstrictor, delayed the HTS-induced bleeding (resumed at 60 minutes), and 2, a defect in platelet aggregation reflected by decreased adenosine diphosphate (ADP)-induced maximal aggregation (-79 percent versus rats treated with 0.9 percent NaCl, p<0.05) and increased EC50 of ADP (+159 percent, p<0.05). These hemodynamic and hematologic responses might be mediated at least in part by prostacyclin, a vasodilator and antiplatelet aggregator, as HTS-treated rats markedly elevated the 6-keto-PGF1 alpha per thromboxane B2 ratio (+140 +/- 12 percent, p<0.01) and pretreatment with indomethacin decreased blood loss and improved MAP and survival. These data point out potential untoward hemodynamic and hematologic consequences of HTS treatment in traumatic injury in which control of bleeding cannot be confirmed. PMID:1411892

  9. 30 CFR 57.22237 - Actions at 2.0 to 2.5 percent methane in bleeder systems (I-A and III mines).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ....22237 Actions at 2.0 to 2.5 percent methane in bleeder systems (I-A and III mines). If methane reaches 2... reduced to less than 2.0 percent within 30 minutes, or if methane levels reach 2.5 percent, all...

  10. 30 CFR 57.22237 - Actions at 2.0 to 2.5 percent methane in bleeder systems (I-A and III mines).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ....22237 Actions at 2.0 to 2.5 percent methane in bleeder systems (I-A and III mines). If methane reaches 2... reduced to less than 2.0 percent within 30 minutes, or if methane levels reach 2.5 percent, all...

  11. 25 CFR 134.1 - Partial reimbursement of irrigation charges; 5 percent per annum of cost of system, June 30, 1920.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Partial reimbursement of irrigation charges; 5 percent..., DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES PARTIAL PAYMENT CONSTRUCTION CHARGES ON INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECTS § 134.1 Partial reimbursement of irrigation charges; 5 percent per annum of cost of system,...

  12. 30 CFR 57.22232 - Actions at 0.5 percent methane (I-B, II-A, II-B, IV, V-B, and VI mines).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... methane is reduced to less than 0.5 percent, electrical power shall be deenergized in affected areas, except power to monitoring equipment determined by MSHA to be intrinsically safe under 30 CFR part...

  13. 30 CFR 57.22232 - Actions at 0.5 percent methane (I-B, II-A, II-B, IV, V-B, and VI mines).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... methane is reduced to less than 0.5 percent, electrical power shall be deenergized in affected areas, except power to monitoring equipment determined by MSHA to be intrinsically safe under 30 CFR part...

  14. 30 CFR 57.22232 - Actions at 0.5 percent methane (I-B, II-A, II-B, IV, V-B, and VI mines).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... methane is reduced to less than 0.5 percent, electrical power shall be deenergized in affected areas, except power to monitoring equipment determined by MSHA to be intrinsically safe under 30 CFR part...

  15. 30 CFR 57.22232 - Actions at 0.5 percent methane (I-B, II-A, II-B, IV, V-B, and VI mines).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... methane is reduced to less than 0.5 percent, electrical power shall be deenergized in affected areas, except power to monitoring equipment determined by MSHA to be intrinsically safe under 30 CFR part...

  16. 30 CFR 57.22232 - Actions at 0.5 percent methane (I-B, II-A, II-B, IV, V-B, and VI mines).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... methane is reduced to less than 0.5 percent, electrical power shall be deenergized in affected areas, except power to monitoring equipment determined by MSHA to be intrinsically safe under 30 CFR part...

  17. 25 CFR 134.1 - Partial reimbursement of irrigation charges; 5 percent per annum of cost of system, June 30, 1920.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... per annum of cost of system, June 30, 1920. 134.1 Section 134.1 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS... PROJECTS § 134.1 Partial reimbursement of irrigation charges; 5 percent per annum of cost of system, June... certain ones mentioned therein, where approved by the Department June 21, 1920, and require that...

  18. Why Probability?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weatherly, Myra S.

    1984-01-01

    Instruction in mathematical probability to enhance higher levels of critical and creative thinking with gifted students is described. Among thinking skills developed by such an approach are analysis, synthesis, evaluation, fluency, and complexity. (CL)

  19. Impingement of Cloud Droplets on 36.5-Percent-Thick Joukowski Airfoil at Zero Angle of Attack and Discussion of Use as Cloud Measuring Instrument in Dye-Tracer Technique

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brun, R. J.; Vogt, Dorothea E.

    1957-01-01

    The trajectories of droplets i n the air flowing past a 36.5-percent-thick Joukowski airfoil at zero angle of attack were determined. The amount of water i n droplet form impinging on the airfoil, the area of droplet impingement, and the rate of droplet impingement per unit area on the airfoil surface were calculated from the trajectories and cover a large range of flight and atmospheric conditions. With the detailed impingement information available, the 36.5-percent-thick Joukowski airfoil can serve the dual purpose of use as the principal element in instruments for making measurements in clouds and of a basic shape for estimating impingement on a thick streamlined body. Methods and examples are presented for illustrating some limitations when the airfoil is used as the principal element in the dye-tracer technique.

  20. Survival probability in patients with liver trauma.

    PubMed

    Buci, Skender; Kukeli, Agim

    2016-08-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to assess the survival probability among patients with liver trauma injury using the anatomical and psychological scores of conditions, characteristics and treatment modes. Design/methodology/approach - A logistic model is used to estimate 173 patients' survival probability. Data are taken from patient records. Only emergency room patients admitted to University Hospital of Trauma (former Military Hospital) in Tirana are included. Data are recorded anonymously, preserving the patients' privacy. Findings - When correctly predicted, the logistic models show that survival probability varies from 70.5 percent up to 95.4 percent. The degree of trauma injury, trauma with liver and other organs, total days the patient was hospitalized, and treatment method (conservative vs intervention) are statistically important in explaining survival probability. Practical implications - The study gives patients, their relatives and physicians ample and sound information they can use to predict survival chances, the best treatment and resource management. Originality/value - This study, which has not been done previously, explores survival probability, success probability for conservative and non-conservative treatment, and success probability for single vs multiple injuries from liver trauma. PMID:27477933

  1. Million Solar Roofs

    SciTech Connect

    2003-11-01

    Since its announcement in June 1997, the Million Solar Roofs Initiative has generated a major buzz in communities, states, and throughout the nation. With more than 300,000 installations, the buzz is getting louder. This brochure describes Million Solar Roofs activities and partnerships.

  2. High-Reynolds-Number Test of a 5-Percent-Thick Low-Aspect-Ratio Semispan Wing in the Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel: Wing Pressure Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chu, Julio; Lawing, Pierce L.

    1990-01-01

    A high Reynolds number test of a 5 percent thick low aspect ratio semispan wing was conducted in the adaptive wall test section of the Langley 0.3 m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. The model tested had a planform and a NACA 64A-105 airfoil section that is similar to that of the pressure instrumented canard on the X-29 experimental aircraft. Chordwise pressure data for Mach numbers of 0.3, 0.7, and 0.9 were measured for an angle-of-attack range of -4 to 15 deg. The associated Reynolds numbers, based on the geometric mean chord, encompass most of the flight regime of the canard. This test was a free transition investigation. A summary of the wing pressures are presented without analysis as well as adapted test section top and bottom wall pressure signatures. However, the presented graphical data indicate Reynolds number dependent complex leading edge separation phenomena. This data set supplements the existing high Reynolds number database and are useful for computational codes comparison.

  3. Probability 1/e

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  4. The Valiant 77 Million.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Conroy, Jr., William G.

    1980-01-01

    Approximately two-thirds of the population depends on one-third of the population for survival. The valiant 77 million constitute the full-time work force in the United States. The conflict between excellence and equality weakens the development of a maximally productive work force. (JN)

  5. On Probability Domains III

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2015-12-01

    Domains of generalized probability have been introduced in order to provide a general construction of random events, observables and states. It is based on the notion of a cogenerator and the properties of product. We continue our previous study and show how some other quantum structures fit our categorical approach. We discuss how various epireflections implicitly used in the classical probability theory are related to the transition to fuzzy probability theory and describe the latter probability theory as a genuine categorical extension of the former. We show that the IF-probability can be studied via the fuzzy probability theory. We outline a "tensor modification" of the fuzzy probability theory.

  6. Probability and Relative Frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drieschner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The concept of probability seems to have been inexplicable since its invention in the seventeenth century. In its use in science, probability is closely related with relative frequency. So the task seems to be interpreting that relation. In this paper, we start with predicted relative frequency and show that its structure is the same as that of probability. I propose to call that the `prediction interpretation' of probability. The consequences of that definition are discussed. The "ladder"-structure of the probability calculus is analyzed. The expectation of the relative frequency is shown to be equal to the predicted relative frequency. Probability is shown to be the most general empirically testable prediction.

  7. Evolution and Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bailey, David H.

    2000-01-01

    Some of the most impressive-sounding criticisms of the conventional theory of biological evolution involve probability. Presents a few examples of how probability should and should not be used in discussing evolution. (ASK)

  8. BIODEGRADATION PROBABILITY PROGRAM (BIODEG)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Biodegradation Probability Program (BIODEG) calculates the probability that a chemical under aerobic conditions with mixed cultures of microorganisms will biodegrade rapidly or slowly. It uses fragment constants developed using multiple linear and non-linear regressions and d...

  9. Probability on a Budget.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ewbank, William A.; Ginther, John L.

    2002-01-01

    Describes how to use common dice numbered 1-6 for simple mathematical situations including probability. Presents a lesson using regular dice and specially marked dice to explore some of the concepts of probability. (KHR)

  10. Dependent Probability Spaces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris

    2008-01-01

    The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…

  11. Searching with probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Palay, A.J.

    1985-01-01

    This book examines how probability distributions can be used as a knowledge representation technique. It presents a mechanism that can be used to guide a selective search algorithm to solve a variety of tactical chess problems. Topics covered include probabilities and searching the B algorithm and chess probabilities - in practice, examples, results, and future work.

  12. In All Probability, Probability is not All

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helman, Danny

    2004-01-01

    The national lottery is often portrayed as a game of pure chance with no room for strategy. This misperception seems to stem from the application of probability instead of expectancy considerations, and can be utilized to introduce the statistical concept of expectation.

  13. After All, Only Millions?

    PubMed Central

    Rosselló-Móra, Ramon

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT An update on the census of species of Archaea and Bacteria published recently in mBio (P. D. Schloss, R. A. Girard, T. Martin, J. Edwards, and J. C. Thrash, mBio 7:e00201-16, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/mBio.00201-16) showed again that, despite ever-increasing sequencing efforts, the PCR-based retrieval of 16S rRNA genes is approaching saturation. On average, 95% of the genes analyzed today are identical to those present in public databases, with rarefaction analysis indicating that about one-third of the bacterial and archaeal diversity has already been covered. Therefore, despite estimates of up to 1012 microbial species, the option should be considered that the census of Archaea and Bacteria on planet Earth might yield only millions of species after all. PMID:27381294

  14. After All, Only Millions?

    PubMed

    Amann, Rudolf; Rosselló-Móra, Ramon

    2016-01-01

    An update on the census of species of Archaea and Bacteria published recently in mBio (P. D. Schloss, R. A. Girard, T. Martin, J. Edwards, and J. C. Thrash, mBio 7:e00201-16, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/mBio.00201-16) showed again that, despite ever-increasing sequencing efforts, the PCR-based retrieval of 16S rRNA genes is approaching saturation. On average, 95% of the genes analyzed today are identical to those present in public databases, with rarefaction analysis indicating that about one-third of the bacterial and archaeal diversity has already been covered. Therefore, despite estimates of up to 10(12) microbial species, the option should be considered that the census of Archaea and Bacteria on planet Earth might yield only millions of species after all. PMID:27381294

  15. A Posteriori Transit Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, Daniel J.; Gaudi, B. Scott

    2013-08-01

    Given the radial velocity (RV) detection of an unseen companion, it is often of interest to estimate the probability that the companion also transits the primary star. Typically, one assumes a uniform distribution for the cosine of the inclination angle i of the companion's orbit. This yields the familiar estimate for the prior transit probability of ~Rlowast/a, given the primary radius Rlowast and orbital semimajor axis a, and assuming small companions and a circular orbit. However, the posterior transit probability depends not only on the prior probability distribution of i but also on the prior probability distribution of the companion mass Mc, given a measurement of the product of the two (the minimum mass Mc sin i) from an RV signal. In general, the posterior can be larger or smaller than the prior transit probability. We derive analytic expressions for the posterior transit probability assuming a power-law form for the distribution of true masses, dΓ/dMcvpropMcα, for integer values -3 <= α <= 3. We show that for low transit probabilities, these probabilities reduce to a constant multiplicative factor fα of the corresponding prior transit probability, where fα in general depends on α and an assumed upper limit on the true mass. The prior and posterior probabilities are equal for α = -1. The posterior transit probability is ~1.5 times larger than the prior for α = -3 and is ~4/π times larger for α = -2, but is less than the prior for α>=0, and can be arbitrarily small for α > 1. We also calculate the posterior transit probability in different mass regimes for two physically-motivated mass distributions of companions around Sun-like stars. We find that for Jupiter-mass planets, the posterior transit probability is roughly equal to the prior probability, whereas the posterior is likely higher for Super-Earths and Neptunes (10 M⊕ - 30 M⊕) and Super-Jupiters (3 MJup - 10 MJup), owing to the predicted steep rise in the mass function toward smaller

  16. Single-case probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, David

    1991-12-01

    The propensity interpretation of probability, bred by Popper in 1957 (K. R. Popper, in Observation and Interpretation in the Philosophy of Physics, S. Körner, ed. (Butterworth, London, 1957, and Dover, New York, 1962), p. 65; reprinted in Popper Selections, D. W. Miller, ed. (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1985), p. 199) from pure frequency stock, is the only extant objectivist account that provides any proper understanding of single-case probabilities as well as of probabilities in ensembles and in the long run. In Sec. 1 of this paper I recall salient points of the frequency interpretations of von Mises and of Popper himself, and in Sec. 2 I filter out from Popper's numerous expositions of the propensity interpretation its most interesting and fertile strain. I then go on to assess it. First I defend it, in Sec. 3, against recent criticisms (P. Humphreys, Philos. Rev. 94, 557 (1985); P. Milne, Erkenntnis 25, 129 (1986)) to the effect that conditional [or relative] probabilities, unlike absolute probabilities, can only rarely be made sense of as propensities. I then challenge its predominance, in Sec. 4, by outlining a rival theory: an irreproachably objectivist theory of probability, fully applicable to the single case, that interprets physical probabilities as instantaneous frequencies.

  17. Probability with Roulette

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Jennings B.

    2007-01-01

    This article describes how roulette can be used to teach basic concepts of probability. Various bets are used to illustrate the computation of expected value. A betting system shows variations in patterns that often appear in random events.

  18. Launch Collision Probability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bollenbacher, Gary; Guptill, James D.

    1999-01-01

    This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

  19. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  20. (Updated) NCI Fiscal 2016 Bypass Budget Proposes $25 Million for Frederick National Lab | Poster

    Cancer.gov

    By Nancy Parrish, Staff Writer; image by Richard Frederickson, Staff Photographer The additional funding requested for Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research (FNLCR) in the Fiscal 2016 Bypass Budget was $25 million, or approximately 3.5 percent of the total additional funding request of $715 million.   Officially called the Professional Judgment Budget, the Bypass Budget is a result of the National Cancer Act of 1971, which authorizes NCI to submit a budget directly to the president, to send to Congress. With a focus on NCI’s research priorities and areas of cancer research with potential for investment, the Bypass Budget specifies additional funding, over and above the current budget, that is needed to advance

  1. (Updated) NCI Fiscal 2016 Bypass Budget Proposes $25 Million for Frederick National Lab | Poster

    Cancer.gov

    By Nancy Parrish, Staff Writer; image by Richard Frederickson, Staff Photographer The additional funding requested for Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research (FNLCR) in the Fiscal 2016 Bypass Budget was $25 million, or approximately 3.5 percent of the total additional funding request of $715 million. Officially called the Professional Judgment Budget, the Bypass Budget is a result of the National Cancer Act of 1971, which authorizes NCI to submit a budget directly to the president, to send to Congress. With a focus on NCI’s research priorities and areas of cancer research with potential for investment, the Bypass Budget specifies additional funding, over and above the current budget, that is needed to advance

  2. Acceptance, values, and probability.

    PubMed

    Steel, Daniel

    2015-10-01

    This essay makes a case for regarding personal probabilities used in Bayesian analyses of confirmation as objects of acceptance and rejection. That in turn entails that personal probabilities are subject to the argument from inductive risk, which aims to show non-epistemic values can legitimately influence scientific decisions about which hypotheses to accept. In a Bayesian context, the argument from inductive risk suggests that value judgments can influence decisions about which probability models to accept for likelihoods and priors. As a consequence, if the argument from inductive risk is sound, then non-epistemic values can affect not only the level of evidence deemed necessary to accept a hypothesis but also degrees of confirmation themselves. PMID:26386533

  3. Manpower Considers CETA 5 Percent Set-Aside

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Vocational Journal, 1978

    1978-01-01

    Joan Wills, from the National Governor's Association (NGA), explains NGA's recommendation to eliminate CETA's five percent set-aside for vocational education. (This article summarizes her presentation at the annual vocational convention.) (Editor)

  4. Approximating Integrals Using Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.; Caudle, Kyle A.

    2005-01-01

    As part of a discussion on Monte Carlo methods, which outlines how to use probability expectations to approximate the value of a definite integral. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on this technique and then to show several examples using visual basic as a programming tool. It is an interesting method because it combines two branches of…

  5. Varga: On Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varga, Tamas

    This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…

  6. Application of Quantum Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohdalová, Mária; Kalina, Martin; Nánásiová, Ol'ga

    2009-03-01

    This is the first attempt to smooth time series using estimators with applying quantum probability with causality (non-commutative s-maps on an othomodular lattice). In this context it means that we use non-symmetric covariance matrix to construction of our estimator.

  7. Univariate Probability Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

  8. Waste Package Misload Probability

    SciTech Connect

    J.K. Knudsen

    2001-11-20

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a.

  9. Probability mapping of contaminants

    SciTech Connect

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

    1994-04-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).

  10. Measurement Uncertainty and Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willink, Robin

    2013-02-01

    Part I. Principles: 1. Introduction; 2. Foundational ideas in measurement; 3. Components of error or uncertainty; 4. Foundational ideas in probability and statistics; 5. The randomization of systematic errors; 6. Beyond the standard confidence interval; Part II. Evaluation of Uncertainty: 7. Final preparation; 8. Evaluation using the linear approximation; 9. Evaluation without the linear approximations; 10. Uncertainty information fit for purpose; Part III. Related Topics: 11. Measurement of vectors and functions; 12. Why take part in a measurement comparison?; 13. Other philosophies; 14. An assessment of objective Bayesian methods; 15. A guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement; 16. Measurement near a limit - an insoluble problem?; References; Index.

  11. Genotype Imputation with Millions of Reference Samples.

    PubMed

    Browning, Brian L; Browning, Sharon R

    2016-01-01

    We present a genotype imputation method that scales to millions of reference samples. The imputation method, based on the Li and Stephens model and implemented in Beagle v.4.1, is parallelized and memory efficient, making it well suited to multi-core computer processors. It achieves fast, accurate, and memory-efficient genotype imputation by restricting the probability model to markers that are genotyped in the target samples and by performing linear interpolation to impute ungenotyped variants. We compare Beagle v.4.1 with Impute2 and Minimac3 by using 1000 Genomes Project data, UK10K Project data, and simulated data. All three methods have similar accuracy but different memory requirements and different computation times. When imputing 10 Mb of sequence data from 50,000 reference samples, Beagle's throughput was more than 100× greater than Impute2's throughput on our computer servers. When imputing 10 Mb of sequence data from 200,000 reference samples in VCF format, Minimac3 consumed 26× more memory per computational thread and 15× more CPU time than Beagle. We demonstrate that Beagle v.4.1 scales to much larger reference panels by performing imputation from a simulated reference panel having 5 million samples and a mean marker density of one marker per four base pairs. PMID:26748515

  12. Genotype Imputation with Millions of Reference Samples

    PubMed Central

    Browning, Brian L.; Browning, Sharon R.

    2016-01-01

    We present a genotype imputation method that scales to millions of reference samples. The imputation method, based on the Li and Stephens model and implemented in Beagle v.4.1, is parallelized and memory efficient, making it well suited to multi-core computer processors. It achieves fast, accurate, and memory-efficient genotype imputation by restricting the probability model to markers that are genotyped in the target samples and by performing linear interpolation to impute ungenotyped variants. We compare Beagle v.4.1 with Impute2 and Minimac3 by using 1000 Genomes Project data, UK10K Project data, and simulated data. All three methods have similar accuracy but different memory requirements and different computation times. When imputing 10 Mb of sequence data from 50,000 reference samples, Beagle’s throughput was more than 100× greater than Impute2’s throughput on our computer servers. When imputing 10 Mb of sequence data from 200,000 reference samples in VCF format, Minimac3 consumed 26× more memory per computational thread and 15× more CPU time than Beagle. We demonstrate that Beagle v.4.1 scales to much larger reference panels by performing imputation from a simulated reference panel having 5 million samples and a mean marker density of one marker per four base pairs. PMID:26748515

  13. Mr Cameron's Three Million Apprenticeships

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    In the 2015 general election campaign David Cameron celebrated the success of apprenticeships during the Coalition and promised another 3 million. This article argues that the "reinvention" of apprenticeships has neither created real skills nor provided real alternatives for young people and that the UK schemes fall far short of those in…

  14. Emptiness Formation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon

    2016-08-01

    We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.

  15. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  16. The Probability of Causal Conditionals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Over, David E.; Hadjichristidis, Constantinos; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Handley, Simon J.; Sloman, Steven A.

    2007-01-01

    Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q [such that] p). We report three experiments on…

  17. Quantum probability and many worlds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemmo, Meir; Pitowsky, Itamar

    We discuss the meaning of probabilities in the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics. We start by presenting very briefly the many worlds theory, how the problem of probability arises, and some unsuccessful attempts to solve it in the past. Then we criticize a recent attempt by Deutsch to derive the quantum mechanical probabilities from the non-probabilistic parts of quantum mechanics and classical decision theory. We further argue that the Born probability does not make sense even as an additional probability rule in the many worlds theory. Our conclusion is that the many worlds theory fails to account for the probabilistic statements of standard (collapse) quantum mechanics.

  18. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  19. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  20. Nearly 10 Million Americans Are Severely Nearsighted

    MedlinePlus

    ... medlineplus/news/fullstory_159483.html Nearly 10 Million Americans Are Severely Nearsighted Analysis of federal and other ... 21, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- About 9.6 million Americans are severely nearsighted, a new study finds. Rates ...

  1. PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

  2. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  3. Building a million beacon map

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Julier, Simon J.; Uhlmann, Jeffrey K.

    2001-10-01

    Many future missions for mobile robots demand multi-robot systems which are capable of operating in large environments for long periods of time. A critical capability is that each robot must be able to localize itself. However, GPS cannot be used in many environments (such as within city streets, under water, indoors, beneath foliage or extra-terrestrial robotic missions) where mobile robots are likely to become commonplace. A widely researched alternative is Simultaneous Localization and Map Building (SLAM): the vehicle constructs a map and, concurrently, estimates its own position. In this paper we consider the problem of building and maintaining an extremely large map (of one million beacons). We describe a fully distributed, highly scaleable SLAM algorithm which is based on distributed data fusion systems. A central map is maintained in global coordinates using the Split Covariance Intersection (SCI) algorithm. Relative and local maps are run independently of the central map and their estimates are periodically fused with the central map.

  4. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are <1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  5. The Probabilities of Conditionals Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Douven, Igor; Verbrugge, Sara

    2013-01-01

    According to what is now commonly referred to as "the Equation" in the literature on indicative conditionals, the probability of any indicative conditional equals the probability of its consequent of the conditional given the antecedent of the conditional. Philosophers widely agree in their assessment that the triviality arguments of…

  6. Minimizing the probable maximum flood

    SciTech Connect

    Woodbury, M.S.; Pansic, N. ); Eberlein, D.T. )

    1994-06-01

    This article examines Wisconsin Electric Power Company's efforts to determine an economical way to comply with Federal Energy Regulatory Commission requirements at two hydroelectric developments on the Michigamme River. Their efforts included refinement of the area's probable maximum flood model based, in part, on a newly developed probable maximum precipitation estimate.

  7. Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whalen, Thomas

    1992-01-01

    This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

  8. Probability of sea level rise

    SciTech Connect

    Titus, J.G.; Narayanan, V.K.

    1995-10-01

    The report develops probability-based projections that can be added to local tide-gage trends to estimate future sea level at particular locations. It uses the same models employed by previous assessments of sea level rise. The key coefficients in those models are based on subjective probability distributions supplied by a cross-section of climatologists, oceanographers, and glaciologists.

  9. Computation of Most Probable Numbers

    PubMed Central

    Russek, Estelle; Colwell, Rita R.

    1983-01-01

    A rapid computational method for maximum likelihood estimation of most-probable-number values, incorporating a modified Newton-Raphson method, is presented. The method offers a much greater reliability for the most-probable-number estimate of total viable bacteria, i.e., those capable of growth in laboratory media. PMID:6870242

  10. On the probability of matching DNA fingerprints.

    PubMed

    Risch, N J; Devlin, B

    1992-02-01

    Forensic scientists commonly assume that DNA fingerprint patterns are infrequent in the general population and that genotypes are independent across loci. To test these assumptions, the number of matching DNA patterns in two large databases from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and from Lifecodes was determined. No deviation from independence across loci in either database was apparent. For the Lifecodes database, the probability of a three-locus match ranges from 1 in 6,233 in Caucasians to 1 in 119,889 in Blacks. When considering all trios of five loci in the FBI database, there was only a single match observed out of more than 7.6 million comparisons. If independence is assumed, the probability of a five-locus match ranged from 1.32 x 10(-12) in Southeast Hispanics to 5.59 x 10(-14) in Blacks, implying that the minimum number of possible patterns for each ethnic group is several orders of magnitude greater than their corresponding population sizes in the United States. The most common five-locus pattern can have a frequency no greater than about 10(-6). Hence, individual five-locus DNA profiles are extremely uncommon, if not unique. PMID:1738844

  11. The probabilities of unique events.

    PubMed

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Phil

    2012-01-01

    Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama's re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program) in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable. PMID:23056224

  12. Transition probabilities of Br II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bengtson, R. D.; Miller, M. H.

    1976-01-01

    Absolute transition probabilities of the three most prominent visible Br II lines are measured in emission. Results compare well with Coulomb approximations and with line strengths extrapolated from trends in homologous atoms.

  13. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    PubMed Central

    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Phil

    2012-01-01

    Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama's re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program) in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable. PMID:23056224

  14. VESPA: False positive probabilities calculator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morton, Timothy D.

    2015-03-01

    Validation of Exoplanet Signals using a Probabilistic Algorithm (VESPA) calculates false positive probabilities and statistically validates transiting exoplanets. Written in Python, it uses isochrones [ascl:1503.010] and the package simpledist.

  15. Dinosaurs, Dinosaur Eggs, and Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teppo, Anne R.; Hodgson, Ted

    2001-01-01

    Outlines several recommendations for teaching probability in the secondary school. Offers an activity that employs simulation by hand and using a programmable calculator in which geometry, analytical geometry, and discrete mathematics are explored. (KHR)

  16. Commercial fertilizers: Total US fertilizer consumption 44.9 million tons in 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Hargett, N.L.; Berry, J.T.; McKinney, S.L.

    1989-12-31

    US fertilizer consumption for the 1988--1989 year was 44.9 million tons of material-an increase of less than one percent from the previous year. The average plant nutrient content of all fertilizers decreased slightly as total plant nutrient consumption declined from 19.61 million to 19.59 million tons of N, P{sub 2}O{sub 5}, and K{sub 2}O. Total nitrogen consumption increased one percent to 10.63 million tons, while P{sub 2}O{sub 5} use decreased by less than one percent to 4.12 million tons. Potash consumption declined from 4.97 million tons to 4.83 million tons K{sub 2}O-a 2.8 percent decrease. Consumption patterns varied widely from state to state as weather conditions adversely affected fertilizer application even with significant increases in total planted crop acreage. Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio reported a decline in total plant nutrient application while several of the southeastern states registered an increase in consumption. Nutrient levels in mixed fertilizers remained unchanged as slight gains in the nitrogen and P{sub 2}O{sub 5} content were offset by a decline in K{sub 2}O. Consumption of ammonium polyphosphate solution (10-34-0) and monoammonium phosphates increased 9.2 percent and 12.8 percent respectively, while diammonium phosphate (18-46-0) use was 2.4 percent below last year. A general increase in the use of nitrogen materials was reported with the exception of nitrogen solutions which declined 2.1 percent from 1987--1988. Urea consumption rose almost 2 percent. ammonium nitrate was up 8.1 percent, and ammonium sulfate recorded a 9.5 percent gain in consumption. Anhydrous ammonia use was only 35,000 tons above last year. This document contains a state by state listing of individual fertilizer consumption rates, numerical data only.

  17. Commercial fertilizers: Total US fertilizer consumption 44. 9 million tons in 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Hargett, N.L.; Berry, J.T.; McKinney, S.L.

    1989-01-01

    US fertilizer consumption for the 1988--1989 year was 44.9 million tons of material-an increase of less than one percent from the previous year. The average plant nutrient content of all fertilizers decreased slightly as total plant nutrient consumption declined from 19.61 million to 19.59 million tons of N, P[sub 2]O[sub 5], and K[sub 2]O. Total nitrogen consumption increased one percent to 10.63 million tons, while P[sub 2]O[sub 5] use decreased by less than one percent to 4.12 million tons. Potash consumption declined from 4.97 million tons to 4.83 million tons K[sub 2]O-a 2.8 percent decrease. Consumption patterns varied widely from state to state as weather conditions adversely affected fertilizer application even with significant increases in total planted crop acreage. Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio reported a decline in total plant nutrient application while several of the southeastern states registered an increase in consumption. Nutrient levels in mixed fertilizers remained unchanged as slight gains in the nitrogen and P[sub 2]O[sub 5] content were offset by a decline in K[sub 2]O. Consumption of ammonium polyphosphate solution (10-34-0) and monoammonium phosphates increased 9.2 percent and 12.8 percent respectively, while diammonium phosphate (18-46-0) use was 2.4 percent below last year. A general increase in the use of nitrogen materials was reported with the exception of nitrogen solutions which declined 2.1 percent from 1987--1988. Urea consumption rose almost 2 percent. ammonium nitrate was up 8.1 percent, and ammonium sulfate recorded a 9.5 percent gain in consumption. Anhydrous ammonia use was only 35,000 tons above last year. This document contains a state by state listing of individual fertilizer consumption rates, numerical data only.

  18. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    SciTech Connect

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  19. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, J. Acacio

    2012-12-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  20. Evaluation of microbial release probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1972-01-01

    Work undertaken to improve the estimation of the probability of release of microorganisms from unmanned Martian landing spacecraft is summarized. An analytical model is described for the development of numerical values for release parameters and release mechanisms applicable to flight missions are defined. Laboratory test data are used to evolve parameter values for use by flight projects in estimating numerical values for release probabilities. The analysis treats microbial burden located on spacecraft surfaces, between mated surfaces, and encapsulated within materials.

  1. Joint probability distributions for projection probabilities of random orthonormal states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso, L.; Gorin, T.

    2016-04-01

    The quantum chaos conjecture applied to a finite dimensional quantum system implies that such a system has eigenstates that show similar statistical properties as the column vectors of random orthogonal or unitary matrices. Here, we consider the different probabilities for obtaining a specific outcome in a projective measurement, provided the system is in one of its eigenstates. We then give analytic expressions for the joint probability density for these probabilities, with respect to the ensemble of random matrices. In the case of the unitary group, our results can be applied, also, to the phenomenon of universal conductance fluctuations, where the same mathematical quantities describe partial conductances in a two-terminal mesoscopic scattering problem with a finite number of modes in each terminal.

  2. Imprecise probabilities in engineering analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beer, Michael; Ferson, Scott; Kreinovich, Vladik

    2013-05-01

    Probabilistic uncertainty and imprecision in structural parameters and in environmental conditions and loads are challenging phenomena in engineering analyses. They require appropriate mathematical modeling and quantification to obtain realistic results when predicting the behavior and reliability of engineering structures and systems. But the modeling and quantification is complicated by the characteristics of the available information, which involves, for example, sparse data, poor measurements and subjective information. This raises the question whether the available information is sufficient for probabilistic modeling or rather suggests a set-theoretical approach. The framework of imprecise probabilities provides a mathematical basis to deal with these problems which involve both probabilistic and non-probabilistic information. A common feature of the various concepts of imprecise probabilities is the consideration of an entire set of probabilistic models in one analysis. The theoretical differences between the concepts mainly concern the mathematical description of the set of probabilistic models and the connection to the probabilistic models involved. This paper provides an overview on developments which involve imprecise probabilities for the solution of engineering problems. Evidence theory, probability bounds analysis with p-boxes, and fuzzy probabilities are discussed with emphasis on their key features and on their relationships to one another. This paper was especially prepared for this special issue and reflects, in various ways, the thinking and presentation preferences of the authors, who are also the guest editors for this special issue.

  3. Measure and probability in cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiffrin, Joshua S.; Wald, Robert M.

    2012-07-01

    General relativity has a Hamiltonian formulation, which formally provides a canonical (Liouville) measure on the space of solutions. In ordinary statistical physics, the Liouville measure is used to compute probabilities of macrostates, and it would seem natural to use the similar measure arising in general relativity to compute probabilities in cosmology, such as the probability that the Universe underwent an era of inflation. Indeed, a number of authors have used the restriction of this measure to the space of homogeneous and isotropic universes with scalar field matter (minisuperspace)—namely, the Gibbons-Hawking-Stewart measure—to make arguments about the likelihood of inflation. We argue here that there are at least four major difficulties with using the measure of general relativity to make probability arguments in cosmology: (1) Equilibration does not occur on cosmological length scales. (2) Even in the minisuperspace case, the measure of phase space is infinite and the computation of probabilities depends very strongly on how the infinity is regulated. (3) The inhomogeneous degrees of freedom must be taken into account (we illustrate how) even if one is interested only in universes that are very nearly homogeneous. The measure depends upon how the infinite number of degrees of freedom are truncated, and how one defines “nearly homogeneous.” (4) In a Universe where the second law of thermodynamics holds, one cannot make use of our knowledge of the present state of the Universe to retrodict the likelihood of past conditions.

  4. Children Adrift: Educating China's Millions of Migrants.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Haili

    1999-01-01

    The population of migrants moving within China's borders has reached some 80 million, including 2-3 million school-aged children. As migrant workers flock to cities, their children strain urban school systems or receive no education. But independent schools for migrants are illegal and substandard. In some rural provinces, vocational training may…

  5. Flood hazard probability mapping method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalantari, Zahra; Lyon, Steve; Folkeson, Lennart

    2015-04-01

    In Sweden, spatially explicit approaches have been applied in various disciplines such as landslide modelling based on soil type data and flood risk modelling for large rivers. Regarding flood mapping, most previous studies have focused on complex hydrological modelling on a small scale whereas just a few studies have used a robust GIS-based approach integrating most physical catchment descriptor (PCD) aspects on a larger scale. The aim of the present study was to develop methodology for predicting the spatial probability of flooding on a general large scale. Factors such as topography, land use, soil data and other PCDs were analysed in terms of their relative importance for flood generation. The specific objective was to test the methodology using statistical methods to identify factors having a significant role on controlling flooding. A second objective was to generate an index quantifying flood probability value for each cell, based on different weighted factors, in order to provide a more accurate analysis of potential high flood hazards than can be obtained using just a single variable. The ability of indicator covariance to capture flooding probability was determined for different watersheds in central Sweden. Using data from this initial investigation, a method to subtract spatial data for multiple catchments and to produce soft data for statistical analysis was developed. It allowed flood probability to be predicted from spatially sparse data without compromising the significant hydrological features on the landscape. By using PCD data, realistic representations of high probability flood regions was made, despite the magnitude of rain events. This in turn allowed objective quantification of the probability of floods at the field scale for future model development and watershed management.

  6. Predicting loss exceedance probabilities for US hurricane landfalls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murnane, R.

    2003-04-01

    The extreme winds, rains, and floods produced by landfalling hurricanes kill and injure many people and cause severe economic losses. Many business, planning, and emergency management decisions are based on the probability of hurricane landfall and associated emergency management considerations; however, the expected total economic and insured losses also are important. Insured losses generally are assumed to be half the total economic loss from hurricanes in the United States. Here I describe a simple model that can be used to estimate deterministic and probabilistic exceedance probabilities for insured losses associated with landfalling hurricanes along the US coastline. The model combines wind speed exceedance probabilities with loss records from historical hurricanes striking land. The wind speed exceedance probabilities are based on the HURDAT best track data and use the storm’s maximum sustained wind just prior to landfall. The loss records are normalized to present-day values using a risk model and account for historical changes in inflation, population, housing stock, and other factors. Analysis of the correlation between normalized losses and a number of storm-related parameters suggests that the most relevant, statistically-significant predictor for insured loss is the storm’s maximum sustained wind at landfall. Insured loss exceedance probabilities thus are estimated using a linear relationship between the log of the maximum sustained winds and normalized insured loss. Model estimates for insured losses from Hurricanes Isidore (US45 million) and Lili (US275 million) compare well with loss estimates from more sophisticated risk models and recorded losses. The model can also be used to estimate how exceedance probabilities for insured loss vary as a function of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

  7. Interference of probabilities in dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Zak, Michail

    2014-08-15

    A new class of dynamical systems with a preset type of interference of probabilities is introduced. It is obtained from the extension of the Madelung equation by replacing the quantum potential with a specially selected feedback from the Liouville equation. It has been proved that these systems are different from both Newtonian and quantum systems, but they can be useful for modeling spontaneous collective novelty phenomena when emerging outputs are qualitatively different from the weighted sum of individual inputs. Formation of language and fast decision-making process as potential applications of the probability interference is discussed.

  8. Probability as a Physical Motive

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Peter

    2007-06-01

    Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (“MEP”) to the information-theoretical“MaxEnt” principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand “the adjacentpossible” as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.

  9. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, G. D.; Zucker, L. J.

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  10. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  11. ESTIMATION OF AGE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    ZINTER, JUDITH R.

    THIS NOTE DESCRIBES THE PROCEDURES USED IN DETERMINING DYNAMOD II AGE TRANSITION MATRICES. A SEPARATE MATRIX FOR EACH SEX-RACE GROUP IS DEVELOPED. THESE MATRICES WILL BE USED AS AN AID IN ESTIMATING THE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN THE LARGER DYNAMOD II MATRIX RELATING AGE TO OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES. THREE STEPS WERE USED IN THE PROCEDURE--(1)…

  12. Probability Simulation in Middle School.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lappan, Glenda; Winter, M. J.

    1980-01-01

    Two simulations designed to teach probability to middle-school age pupils are presented. The first simulates the one-on-one foul shot simulation in basketball; the second deals with collecting a set of six cereal box prizes by buying boxes containing one toy each. (MP)

  13. Some Surprising Probabilities from Bingo.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mercer, Joseph O.

    1993-01-01

    Investigates the probability of winning the largest prize at Bingo through a series of five simpler problems. Investigations are conducted with the aid of either BASIC computer programs, spreadsheets, or a computer algebra system such as Mathematica. Provides sample data tables to illustrate findings. (MDH)

  14. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  15. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  16. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  17. Probability densities in strong turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yakhot, Victor

    2006-03-01

    In this work we, using Mellin’s transform combined with the Gaussian large-scale boundary condition, calculate probability densities (PDFs) of velocity increments P(δu,r), velocity derivatives P(u,r) and the PDF of the fluctuating dissipation scales Q(η,Re), where Re is the large-scale Reynolds number. The resulting expressions strongly deviate from the Log-normal PDF P(δu,r) often quoted in the literature. It is shown that the probability density of the small-scale velocity fluctuations includes information about the large (integral) scale dynamics which is responsible for the deviation of P(δu,r) from P(δu,r). An expression for the function D(h) of the multifractal theory, free from spurious logarithms recently discussed in [U. Frisch, M. Martins Afonso, A. Mazzino, V. Yakhot, J. Fluid Mech. 542 (2005) 97] is also obtained.

  18. Probability, Information and Statistical Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzemsky, A. L.

    2016-03-01

    In this short survey review we discuss foundational issues of the probabilistic approach to information theory and statistical mechanics from a unified standpoint. Emphasis is on the inter-relations between theories. The basic aim is tutorial, i.e. to carry out a basic introduction to the analysis and applications of probabilistic concepts to the description of various aspects of complexity and stochasticity. We consider probability as a foundational concept in statistical mechanics and review selected advances in the theoretical understanding of interrelation of the probability, information and statistical description with regard to basic notions of statistical mechanics of complex systems. It includes also a synthesis of past and present researches and a survey of methodology. The purpose of this terse overview is to discuss and partially describe those probabilistic methods and approaches that are used in statistical mechanics with the purpose of making these ideas easier to understanding and to apply.

  19. Probability for primordial black holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bousso, R.; Hawking, S. W.

    1995-11-01

    We consider two quantum cosmological models with a massive scalar field: an ordinary Friedmann universe and a universe containing primordial black holes. For both models we discuss the complex solutions to the Euclidean Einstein equations. Using the probability measure obtained from the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary proposal we find that the only unsuppressed black holes start at the Planck size but can grow with the horizon scale during the roll down of the scalar field to the minimum.

  20. Relative transition probabilities of cobalt

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roig, R. A.; Miller, M. H.

    1974-01-01

    Results of determinations of neutral-cobalt transition probabilities measured relative to Co I 4150.43 A and Co II 4145.15 A, using a gas-driven shock tube as the spectroscopic light source. Results are presented for 139 Co I lines in the range from 3940 to 6640 A and 11 Co II lines in the range from 3840 to 4730 A, which are estimated to have reliabilities ranging from 8 to 50%.

  1. Probability for Weather and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  2. Probability of Detection Demonstration Transferability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Bradford H.

    2008-01-01

    The ongoing Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Propellant Tank Penetrant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Probability of Detection (POD) Assessment (NESC activity) has surfaced several issues associated with liquid penetrant POD demonstration testing. This presentation lists factors that may influence the transferability of POD demonstration tests. Initial testing will address the liquid penetrant inspection technique. Some of the factors to be considered in this task are crack aspect ratio, the extent of the crack opening, the material and the distance between the inspection surface and the inspector's eye.

  3. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    PubMed

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters. PMID:22407706

  4. Lectures on probability and statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.

  5. Measure and Probability in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiffrin, Joshua; Wald, Robert

    2012-03-01

    General relativity has a Hamiltonian formulation, which formally provides a canonical (Liouville) measure on the space of solutions. A number of authors have used the restriction of this measure to the space of homogeneous and isotropic universes with scalar field matter (minisuperspace)---namely, the Gibbons-Hawking-Stewart measure---to make arguments about the likelihood of inflation. We argue here that there are at least four major difficulties with using the measure of general relativity to make probability arguments in cosmology: (1) Equilibration does not occur on cosmological length scales. (2) Even in the minisuperspace case, the measure of phase space is infinite and the computation of probabilities depends very strongly on how the infinity is regulated. (3) The inhomogeneous degrees of freedom must be taken into account even if one is interested only in universes that are very nearly homogeneous. The measure depends upon how the infinite number of degrees of freedom are truncated, and how one defines ``nearly homogeneous''. (4) In a universe where the second law of thermodynamics holds, one cannot make use of our knowledge of the present state of the universe to ``retrodict'' the likelihood of past conditions.

  6. Statistical behavior of ten million experimental detection limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voigtman, Edward; Abraham, Kevin T.

    2011-02-01

    Using a lab-constructed laser-excited fluorimeter, together with bootstrapping methodology, the authors have generated many millions of experimental linear calibration curves for the detection of rhodamine 6G tetrafluoroborate in ethanol solutions. The detection limits computed from them are in excellent agreement with both previously published theory and with comprehensive Monte Carlo computer simulations. Currie decision levels and Currie detection limits, each in the theoretical, chemical content domain, were found to be simply scaled reciprocals of the non-centrality parameter of the non-central t distribution that characterizes univariate linear calibration curves that have homoscedastic, additive Gaussian white noise. Accurate and precise estimates of the theoretical, content domain Currie detection limit for the experimental system, with 5% (each) probabilities of false positives and false negatives, are presented.

  7. MSPI False Indication Probability Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Dana Kelly; Kurt Vedros; Robert Youngblood

    2011-03-01

    This paper examines false indication probabilities in the context of the Mitigating System Performance Index (MSPI), in order to investigate the pros and cons of different approaches to resolving two coupled issues: (1) sensitivity to the prior distribution used in calculating the Bayesian-corrected unreliability contribution to the MSPI, and (2) whether (in a particular plant configuration) to model the fuel oil transfer pump (FOTP) as a separate component, or integrally to its emergency diesel generator (EDG). False indication probabilities were calculated for the following situations: (1) all component reliability parameters at their baseline values, so that the true indication is green, meaning that an indication of white or above would be false positive; (2) one or more components degraded to the extent that the true indication would be (mid) white, and “false” would be green (negative) or yellow (negative) or red (negative). In key respects, this was the approach taken in NUREG-1753. The prior distributions examined were the constrained noninformative (CNI) prior used currently by the MSPI, a mixture of conjugate priors, the Jeffreys noninformative prior, a nonconjugate log(istic)-normal prior, and the minimally informative prior investigated in (Kelly et al., 2010). The mid-white performance state was set at ?CDF = ?10 ? 10-6/yr. For each simulated time history, a check is made of whether the calculated ?CDF is above or below 10-6/yr. If the parameters were at their baseline values, and ?CDF > 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false positive. Conversely, if one or all of the parameters are set to values corresponding to ?CDF > 10-6/yr but that time history’s ?CDF < 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false negative indication. The false indication (positive or negative) probability is then estimated as the number of false positive or negative counts divided by the number of time histories (100,000). Results are presented for a set of base case parameter values

  8. Relations that affect the probability and prediction of nitrate concentration in private wells in the glacial aquifer system in the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warner, Kelly L.; Arnold, Terri L.

    2010-01-01

    Nitrate in private wells in the glacial aquifer system is a concern for an estimated 17 million people using private wells because of the proximity of many private wells to nitrogen sources. Yet, less than 5 percent of private wells sampled in this study contained nitrate in concentrations that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 mg/L (milligrams per liter) as N (nitrogen). However, this small group with nitrate concentrations above the USEPA MCL includes some of the highest nitrate concentrations detected in groundwater from private wells (77 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration measured in groundwater from private wells in the glacial aquifer system (0.11 mg/L as N) is lower than that in water from other unconsolidated aquifers and is not strongly related to surface sources of nitrate. Background concentration of nitrate is less than 1 mg/L as N. Although overall nitrate concentration in private wells was low relative to the MCL, concentrations were highly variable over short distances and at various depths below land surface. Groundwater from wells in the glacial aquifer system at all depths was a mixture of old and young water. Oxidation and reduction potential changes with depth and groundwater age were important influences on nitrate concentrations in private wells. A series of 10 logistic regression models was developed to estimate the probability of nitrate concentration above various thresholds. The threshold concentration (1 to 10 mg/L) affected the number of variables in the model. Fewer explanatory variables are needed to predict nitrate at higher threshold concentrations. The variables that were identified as significant predictors for nitrate concentration above 4 mg/L as N included well characteristics such as open-interval diameter, open-interval length, and depth to top of open interval. Environmental variables in the models were mean percent silt in soil, soil type, and mean depth to

  9. Associativity and normative credal probability.

    PubMed

    Snow, P

    2002-01-01

    Cox's Theorem is a widely cited motivation for probabilistic models of uncertain belief. The theorem relates the associativity of the logical connectives to that of the arithmetic operations of probability. Recent questions about the correctness of Cox's Theorem have been resolved, but there are new questions about one functional equation used by Cox in 1946. This equation is missing from his later work. Advances in knowledge since 1946 and changes in Cox's research interests explain the equation's disappearance. Other associativity-based motivations avoid functional equations altogether, and so may be more transparently applied to finite domains and discrete beliefs. A discrete counterpart of Cox's Theorem can be assembled from results that have been in the literature since 1959. PMID:18238098

  10. Imprecise probability for non-commuting observables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.

    2015-08-01

    It is known that non-commuting observables in quantum mechanics do not have joint probability. This statement refers to the precise (additive) probability model. I show that the joint distribution of any non-commuting pair of variables can be quantified via upper and lower probabilities, i.e. the joint probability is described by an interval instead of a number (imprecise probability). I propose transparent axioms from which the upper and lower probability operators follow. The imprecise probability depend on the non-commuting observables, is linear over the state (density matrix) and reverts to the usual expression for commuting observables.

  11. One Half Million Mile Solar Filament

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) captures a very long, whip-like solar filament extending over half a million miles in a long arc above the sun’s surface. Filaments are cooler clouds of ...

  12. Learning Our Way to One Million

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitin, David J.

    2008-01-01

    David Schwartz's classic book "How Much Is a Million?" can be the catalyst for sparking many interesting mathematical investigations. This article describes five episodes in which children in grades 2-5 all heard this familiar story read aloud to them. At each grade level, they were encouraged to think of their own way to explore the concept of…

  13. Leading the Maricopa Millions OER Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raneri, April; Young, Lisa

    2016-01-01

    With a reduced number of students purchasing required and necessary textbooks, higher education leaders must look to new opportunities to increase student success. While open educational resources have addressed this issue, they have not received widespread support from faculty, staff, and administrators. The Maricopa Millions OER Project: Scaling…

  14. What Do You Do With $50 Million?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNamara, William

    1975-01-01

    The impact on the University of Richmond (UR) of its 1969 gift of $50 million from an alumnus and trustee is examined. The fairly typical, small, church-related liberal arts university with an enrollment of about 4,000 has concentrated on student life and faculty welfare and the relationship between the two. (JT)

  15. Saving Millions without Spending a Dime.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raman, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    Describes how the University of Hawaii at Hilo is using the $2.7 million it saved on utility bills during the past 5 years to repay campus energy improvements financed, installed, and maintained by an energy services company; the method is called energy savings performance contracting. (EV)

  16. Fusion probability in heavy nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Tathagata; Nath, S.; Pal, Santanu

    2015-03-01

    Background: Fusion between two massive nuclei is a very complex process and is characterized by three stages: (a) capture inside the potential barrier, (b) formation of an equilibrated compound nucleus (CN), and (c) statistical decay of the CN leading to a cold evaporation residue (ER) or fission. The second stage is the least understood of the three and is the most crucial in predicting yield of superheavy elements (SHE) formed in complete fusion reactions. Purpose: A systematic study of average fusion probability, , is undertaken to obtain a better understanding of its dependence on various reaction parameters. The study may also help to clearly demarcate onset of non-CN fission (NCNF), which causes fusion probability, PCN, to deviate from unity. Method: ER excitation functions for 52 reactions leading to CN in the mass region 170-220, which are available in the literature, have been compared with statistical model (SM) calculations. Capture cross sections have been obtained from a coupled-channels code. In the SM, shell corrections in both the level density and the fission barrier have been included. for these reactions has been extracted by comparing experimental and theoretical ER excitation functions in the energy range ˜5 %-35% above the potential barrier, where known effects of nuclear structure are insignificant. Results: has been shown to vary with entrance channel mass asymmetry, η (or charge product, ZpZt ), as well as with fissility of the CN, χCN. No parameter has been found to be adequate as a single scaling variable to determine . Approximate boundaries have been obtained from where starts deviating from unity. Conclusions: This study quite clearly reveals the limits of applicability of the SM in interpreting experimental observables from fusion reactions involving two massive nuclei. Deviation of from unity marks the beginning of the domain of dynamical models of fusion. Availability of precise ER cross

  17. Exploring the Overestimation of Conjunctive Probabilities

    PubMed Central

    Nilsson, Håkan; Rieskamp, Jörg; Jenny, Mirjam A.

    2013-01-01

    People often overestimate probabilities of conjunctive events. The authors explored whether the accuracy of conjunctive probability estimates can be improved by increased experience with relevant constituent events and by using memory aids. The first experiment showed that increased experience with constituent events increased the correlation between the estimated and the objective conjunctive probabilities, but that it did not reduce overestimation of conjunctive probabilities. The second experiment showed that reducing cognitive load with memory aids for the constituent probabilities led to improved estimates of the conjunctive probabilities and to decreased overestimation of conjunctive probabilities. To explain the cognitive process underlying people’s probability estimates, the configural weighted average model was tested against the normative multiplicative model. The configural weighted average model generates conjunctive probabilities that systematically overestimate objective probabilities although the generated probabilities still correlate strongly with the objective probabilities. For the majority of participants this model was better than the multiplicative model in predicting the probability estimates. However, when memory aids were provided, the predictive accuracy of the multiplicative model increased. In sum, memory tools can improve people’s conjunctive probability estimates. PMID:23460026

  18. Direct probability mapping of contaminants

    SciTech Connect

    Rautman, C.A.

    1993-09-17

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration.

  19. Trajectory versus probability density entropy.

    PubMed

    Bologna, M; Grigolini, P; Karagiorgis, M; Rosa, A

    2001-07-01

    We show that the widely accepted conviction that a connection can be established between the probability density entropy and the Kolmogorov-Sinai (KS) entropy is questionable. We adopt the definition of density entropy as a functional of a distribution density whose time evolution is determined by a transport equation, conceived as the only prescription to use for the calculation. Although the transport equation is built up for the purpose of affording a picture equivalent to that stemming from trajectory dynamics, no direct use of trajectory time evolution is allowed, once the transport equation is defined. With this definition in mind we prove that the detection of a time regime of increase of the density entropy with a rate identical to the KS entropy is possible only in a limited number of cases. The proposals made by some authors to establish a connection between the two entropies in general, violate our definition of density entropy and imply the concept of trajectory, which is foreign to that of density entropy. PMID:11461383

  20. Trajectory versus probability density entropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bologna, Mauro; Grigolini, Paolo; Karagiorgis, Markos; Rosa, Angelo

    2001-07-01

    We show that the widely accepted conviction that a connection can be established between the probability density entropy and the Kolmogorov-Sinai (KS) entropy is questionable. We adopt the definition of density entropy as a functional of a distribution density whose time evolution is determined by a transport equation, conceived as the only prescription to use for the calculation. Although the transport equation is built up for the purpose of affording a picture equivalent to that stemming from trajectory dynamics, no direct use of trajectory time evolution is allowed, once the transport equation is defined. With this definition in mind we prove that the detection of a time regime of increase of the density entropy with a rate identical to the KS entropy is possible only in a limited number of cases. The proposals made by some authors to establish a connection between the two entropies in general, violate our definition of density entropy and imply the concept of trajectory, which is foreign to that of density entropy.

  1. Probability distributions of turbulent energy.

    PubMed

    Momeni, Mahdi; Müller, Wolf-Christian

    2008-05-01

    Probability density functions (PDFs) of scale-dependent energy fluctuations, P[deltaE(l)] , are studied in high-resolution direct numerical simulations of Navier-Stokes and incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. MHD flows with and without a strong mean magnetic field are considered. For all three systems it is found that the PDFs of inertial range energy fluctuations exhibit self-similarity and monoscaling in agreement with recent solar-wind measurements [Hnat, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 86 (2002)]. Furthermore, the energy PDFs exhibit similarity over all scales of the turbulent system showing no substantial qualitative change of shape as the scale of the fluctuations varies. This is in contrast to the well-known behavior of PDFs of turbulent velocity fluctuations. In all three cases under consideration the P[deltaE(l)] resemble Lévy-type gamma distributions approximately Delta;{-1} exp(-|deltaE|/Delta)|deltaE|;{-gamma} The observed gamma distributions exhibit a scale-dependent width Delta(l) and a system-dependent gamma . The monoscaling property reflects the inertial-range scaling of the Elsässer-field fluctuations due to lacking Galilei invariance of deltaE . The appearance of Lévy distributions is made plausible by a simple model of energy transfer. PMID:18643170

  2. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    SciTech Connect

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  3. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  4. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  5. Acceptance Probability (P a) Analysis for Process Validation Lifecycle Stages.

    PubMed

    Alsmeyer, Daniel; Pazhayattil, Ajay; Chen, Shu; Munaretto, Francesco; Hye, Maksuda; Sanghvi, Pradeep

    2016-04-01

    This paper introduces an innovative statistical approach towards understanding how variation impacts the acceptance criteria of quality attributes. Because of more complex stage-wise acceptance criteria, traditional process capability measures are inadequate for general application in the pharmaceutical industry. The probability of acceptance concept provides a clear measure, derived from specific acceptance criteria for each quality attribute. In line with the 2011 FDA Guidance, this approach systematically evaluates data and scientifically establishes evidence that a process is capable of consistently delivering quality product. The probability of acceptance provides a direct and readily understandable indication of product risk. As with traditional capability indices, the acceptance probability approach assumes that underlying data distributions are normal. The computational solutions for dosage uniformity and dissolution acceptance criteria are readily applicable. For dosage uniformity, the expected AV range may be determined using the s lo and s hi values along with the worst case estimates of the mean. This approach permits a risk-based assessment of future batch performance of the critical quality attributes. The concept is also readily applicable to sterile/non sterile liquid dose products. Quality attributes such as deliverable volume and assay per spray have stage-wise acceptance that can be converted into an acceptance probability. Accepted statistical guidelines indicate processes with C pk > 1.33 as performing well within statistical control and those with C pk < 1.0 as "incapable" (1). A C pk > 1.33 is associated with a centered process that will statistically produce less than 63 defective units per million. This is equivalent to an acceptance probability of >99.99%. PMID:26024723

  6. Application-dependent Probability Distributions for Offshore Wind Speeds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgan, E. C.; Lackner, M.; Vogel, R. M.; Baise, L. G.

    2010-12-01

    The higher wind speeds of the offshore environment make it an attractive setting for future wind farms. With sparser field measurements, the theoretical probability distribution of short-term wind speeds becomes more important in estimating values such as average power output and fatigue load. While previous studies typically compare the accuracy of probability distributions using R2, we show that validation based on this metric is not consistent with validation based on engineering parameters of interest, namely turbine power output and extreme wind speed. Thus, in order to make the most accurate estimates possible, the probability distribution that an engineer picks to characterize wind speeds should depend on the design parameter of interest. We introduce the Kappa and Wakeby probability distribution functions to wind speed modeling, and show that these two distributions, along with the Biweibull distribution, fit wind speed samples better than the more widely accepted Weibull and Rayleigh distributions based on R2. Additionally, out of the 14 probability distributions we examine, the Kappa and Wakeby give the most accurate and least biased estimates of turbine power output. The fact that the 2-parameter Lognormal distribution estimates extreme wind speeds (i.e. fits the upper tail of wind speed distributions) with least error indicates that not one single distribution performs satisfactorily for all applications. Our use of a large dataset composed of 178 buoys (totaling ~72 million 10-minute wind speed observations) makes these findings highly significant, both in terms of large sample size and broad geographical distribution across various wind regimes. Boxplots of R2 from the fit of each of the 14 distributions to the 178 boy wind speed samples. Distributions are ranked from left to right by ascending median R2, with the Biweibull having the closest median to 1.

  7. Emulating a million machines to investigate botnets.

    SciTech Connect

    Rudish, Donald W.

    2010-06-01

    Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore, California are creating what is in effect a vast digital petridish able to hold one million operating systems at once in an effort to study the behavior of rogue programs known as botnets. Botnets are used extensively by malicious computer hackers to steal computing power fron Internet-connected computers. The hackers harness the stolen resources into a scattered but powerful computer that can be used to send spam, execute phishing, scams or steal digital information. These remote-controlled 'distributed computers' are difficult to observe and track. Botnets may take over parts of tens of thousands or in some cases even millions of computers, making them among the world's most powerful computers for some applications.

  8. Subjective and objective probabilities in quantum mechanics

    SciTech Connect

    Srednicki, Mark

    2005-05-15

    We discuss how the apparently objective probabilities predicted by quantum mechanics can be treated in the framework of Bayesian probability theory, in which all probabilities are subjective. Our results are in accord with earlier work by Caves, Fuchs, and Schack, but our approach and emphasis are different. We also discuss the problem of choosing a noninformative prior for a density matrix.

  9. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    López Puga, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  10. Illustrating Basic Probability Calculations Using "Craps"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Roger W.

    2006-01-01

    Instructors may use the gambling game of craps to illustrate the use of a number of fundamental probability identities. For the "pass-line" bet we focus on the chance of winning and the expected game length. To compute these, probabilities of unions of disjoint events, probabilities of intersections of independent events, conditional probabilities…

  11. Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Odafe, Victor U.

    2011-01-01

    Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

  12. Teaching Probabilities and Statistics to Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pange, Jenny

    2003-01-01

    This study considers the teaching of probabilities and statistics to a group of preschool children using traditional classroom activities and Internet games. It was clear from this study that children can show a high level of understanding of probabilities and statistics, and demonstrate high performance in probability games. The use of Internet…

  13. The Cognitive Substrate of Subjective Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nilsson, Hakan; Olsson, Henrik; Juslin, Peter

    2005-01-01

    The prominent cognitive theories of probability judgment were primarily developed to explain cognitive biases rather than to account for the cognitive processes in probability judgment. In this article the authors compare 3 major theories of the processes and representations in probability judgment: the representativeness heuristic, implemented as…

  14. Turning the Empirical Corner on Fi: The Probability of

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marino, Lori

    The probability of receiving an intelligent extraterrestrial signal depends upon the uniqueness of a human level of intelligence. In 1996 I presented a paper at the 5th International Bioastronomy Conference in which I described the initial results from a long-term project aimed at an empirical assessment of the probability of a human-level of intelligence evolving in a nonhuman species. In that paper and subsequent publications, I provided evidence that the relative brain size achieved by human ancestors as recently as 2 million years ago was eclipsed by that of a contemporaneous mammalian group, the cetaceans (toothed whales, dolphins, and porpoises). The present paper extends these findings in several important ways. First, I will present a more rigorous statistical analysis of average relative brain size in humans and cetaceans that takes into account the variability in relative brain size in these two groups. Second, I will present data on relative brain size increases in humans and cetaceans controlling for phylogenetic relationships so that the independence, and thus probability, of instances of relative brain size increases can be better ascertained. Third, I will present data on the rate of relative brain size increases in humans and cetaceans. Fourth, I will describe future research aimed at correlating evolutionary changes in human and cetacean relative brain size with environmental, climatic, biological, and temporal agents. Through this approach, we may eventually obtain data on the kinds of physical and biological factors that are associated with, and possibly generate, evolutionary tracks to complex brains and intelligence.

  15. Bell Could Become the Copernicus of Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    Our aim is to emphasize the role of mathematical models in physics, especially models of geometry and probability. We briefly compare developments of geometry and probability by pointing to similarities and differences: from Euclid to Lobachevsky and from Kolmogorov to Bell. In probability, Bell could play the same role as Lobachevsky in geometry. In fact, violation of Bell’s inequality can be treated as implying the impossibility to apply the classical probability model of Kolmogorov (1933) to quantum phenomena. Thus the quantum probabilistic model (based on Born’s rule) can be considered as the concrete example of the non-Kolmogorovian model of probability, similarly to the Lobachevskian model — the first example of the non-Euclidean model of geometry. This is the “probability model” interpretation of the violation of Bell’s inequality. We also criticize the standard interpretation—an attempt to add to rigorous mathematical probability models additional elements such as (non)locality and (un)realism. Finally, we compare embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into the Euclidean space with embeddings of the non-Kolmogorovian probabilities (in particular, quantum probability) into the Kolmogorov probability space. As an example, we consider the CHSH-test.

  16. The 8-million channel narrowband analyzer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horowitz, P.; Forster, J.; Linscott, I.

    An 8.4 million channel narrowband spectrum analyzer is nearing completion, and will be used to expand the frequency coverage of the ongoing search at Oak Ridge by a factor of 200. The new system - project META - will cover 420 kHz at 0.05 Hz resolution, utilizing a swept receiver to cancel the effect of the earth's rotation. The increased bandwidth will permit observation of CW beacons transmitted at magic frequencies in any of three preferred frames: the local standard of rest, the galactic barycenter, and the cosmic blackbody rest frame.

  17. Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

    SciTech Connect

    Kracklauer, A. F.

    2007-12-03

    Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

  18. Experience Matters: Information Acquisition Optimizes Probability Gain

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Jonathan D.; McKenzie, Craig R.M.; Cottrell, Garrison W.; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

    2010-01-01

    Deciding which piece of information to acquire or attend to is fundamental to perception, categorization, medical diagnosis, and scientific inference. Four statistical theories of the value of information—information gain, Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact—are equally consistent with extant data on human information acquisition. Three experiments, designed via computer optimization to be maximally informative, tested which of these theories best describes human information search. Experiment 1, which used natural sampling and experience-based learning to convey environmental probabilities, found that probability gain explained subjects’ information search better than the other statistical theories or the probability-of-certainty heuristic. Experiments 1 and 2 found that subjects behaved differently when the standard method of verbally presented summary statistics (rather than experience-based learning) was used to convey environmental probabilities. Experiment 3 found that subjects’ preference for probability gain is robust, suggesting that the other models contribute little to subjects’ search behavior. PMID:20525915

  19. Experience matters: information acquisition optimizes probability gain.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Jonathan D; McKenzie, Craig R M; Cottrell, Garrison W; Sejnowski, Terrence J

    2010-07-01

    Deciding which piece of information to acquire or attend to is fundamental to perception, categorization, medical diagnosis, and scientific inference. Four statistical theories of the value of information-information gain, Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact-are equally consistent with extant data on human information acquisition. Three experiments, designed via computer optimization to be maximally informative, tested which of these theories best describes human information search. Experiment 1, which used natural sampling and experience-based learning to convey environmental probabilities, found that probability gain explained subjects' information search better than the other statistical theories or the probability-of-certainty heuristic. Experiments 1 and 2 found that subjects behaved differently when the standard method of verbally presented summary statistics (rather than experience-based learning) was used to convey environmental probabilities. Experiment 3 found that subjects' preference for probability gain is robust, suggesting that the other models contribute little to subjects' search behavior. PMID:20525915

  20. Derivation of quantum probability from measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herbut, Fedor

    2016-05-01

    To begin with, it is pointed out that the form of the quantum probability formula originates in the very initial state of the object system as seen when the state is expanded with the eigenprojectors of the measured observable. Making use of the probability reproducibility condition, which is a key concept in unitary measurement theory, one obtains the relevant coherent distribution of the complete-measurement results in the final unitary-measurement state in agreement with the mentioned probability formula. Treating the transition from the final unitary, or premeasurement, state, where all possible results are present, to one complete-measurement result sketchily in the usual way, the well-known probability formula is derived. In conclusion it is pointed out that the entire argument is only formal unless one makes it physical assuming that the quantum probability law is valid in the extreme case of probability-one (certain) events (projectors).

  1. Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kracklauer, A. F.

    2007-12-01

    Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

  2. Dynamic probability estimator for machine learning.

    PubMed

    Starzyk, Janusz A; Wang, Feng

    2004-03-01

    An efficient algorithm for dynamic estimation of probabilities without division on unlimited number of input data is presented. The method estimates probabilities of the sampled data from the raw sample count, while keeping the total count value constant. Accuracy of the estimate depends on the counter size, rather than on the total number of data points. Estimator follows variations of the incoming data probability within a fixed window size, without explicit implementation of the windowing technique. Total design area is very small and all probabilities are estimated concurrently. Dynamic probability estimator was implemented using a programmable gate array from Xilinx. The performance of this implementation is evaluated in terms of the area efficiency and execution time. This method is suitable for the highly integrated design of artificial neural networks where a large number of dynamic probability estimators can work concurrently. PMID:15384523

  3. Entropy analysis of systems exhibiting negative probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tenreiro Machado, J. A.

    2016-07-01

    This paper addresses the concept of negative probability and its impact upon entropy. An analogy between the probability generating functions, in the scope of quasiprobability distributions, and the Grünwald-Letnikov definition of fractional derivatives, is explored. Two distinct cases producing negative probabilities are formulated and their distinct meaning clarified. Numerical calculations using the Shannon entropy characterize further the characteristics of the two limit cases.

  4. Calculating the CEP (Circular Error Probable)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1987-01-01

    This report compares the probability contained in the Circular Error Probable associated with an Elliptical Error Probable to that of the EEP at a given confidence level. The levels examined are 50 percent and 95 percent. The CEP is found to be both more conservative and less conservative than the associated EEP, depending on the eccentricity of the ellipse. The formulas used are derived in the appendix.

  5. Kumbh Mela 2013: Healthcare for the millions

    PubMed Central

    Cariappa, M.P.; Singh, B.P.; Mahen, A.; Bansal, A.S.

    2015-01-01

    Mass gatherings pose challenges to healthcare systems anywhere in the world. The Kumbh Mela 2013 at Allahabad, India was the largest gathering of humanity in the history of mankind, and posed an exciting challenge to the provision of healthcare services. At the finale of the Mela, it was estimated that about 120 million pilgrims had visited the site. Equitable geospatial distribution of adhoc health care facilities were created on a standardised template with integrated planning of evacuation modalities. Innovative and low cost response measures for disaster mitigation were implemented. Emergency patient management kits were prepared and stocked across the health care facilities for crisis response. Dynamic resource allocation (in terms of manpower and supplies) based on patient volumes was done on a daily basis, in response to feedback. An adhoc mega township created on the banks of a perennial river (Ganga) in the Indian subcontinent for accommodating millions of Hindu pilgrims. Conventional mindset of merely providing limited and static healthcare through adhoc facilities was done away with. Innovative concepts such as riverine ambulances and disaster kits were introduced. Managing the medical aspects of a mass gathering mega event requires allocation of adequate funds, proactive and integrated medical planning and preparedness. PMID:26288497

  6. Kumbh Mela 2013: Healthcare for the millions.

    PubMed

    Cariappa, M P; Singh, B P; Mahen, A; Bansal, A S

    2015-07-01

    Mass gatherings pose challenges to healthcare systems anywhere in the world. The Kumbh Mela 2013 at Allahabad, India was the largest gathering of humanity in the history of mankind, and posed an exciting challenge to the provision of healthcare services. At the finale of the Mela, it was estimated that about 120 million pilgrims had visited the site. Equitable geospatial distribution of adhoc health care facilities were created on a standardised template with integrated planning of evacuation modalities. Innovative and low cost response measures for disaster mitigation were implemented. Emergency patient management kits were prepared and stocked across the health care facilities for crisis response. Dynamic resource allocation (in terms of manpower and supplies) based on patient volumes was done on a daily basis, in response to feedback. An adhoc mega township created on the banks of a perennial river (Ganga) in the Indian subcontinent for accommodating millions of Hindu pilgrims. Conventional mindset of merely providing limited and static healthcare through adhoc facilities was done away with. Innovative concepts such as riverine ambulances and disaster kits were introduced. Managing the medical aspects of a mass gathering mega event requires allocation of adequate funds, proactive and integrated medical planning and preparedness. PMID:26288497

  7. Predicting accurate probabilities with a ranking loss

    PubMed Central

    Menon, Aditya Krishna; Jiang, Xiaoqian J; Vembu, Shankar; Elkan, Charles; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

    2013-01-01

    In many real-world applications of machine learning classifiers, it is essential to predict the probability of an example belonging to a particular class. This paper proposes a simple technique for predicting probabilities based on optimizing a ranking loss, followed by isotonic regression. This semi-parametric technique offers both good ranking and regression performance, and models a richer set of probability distributions than statistical workhorses such as logistic regression. We provide experimental results that show the effectiveness of this technique on real-world applications of probability prediction. PMID:25285328

  8. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-03-01

    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (0<α<1 and w(0)=1,w(1e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  9. Photographer : JPL Range : 6.5 million kilometers (4 million miles) Six violet images of Jupiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Photographer : JPL Range : 6.5 million kilometers (4 million miles) Six violet images of Jupiter makes the mosaic photo, showing the Great Red Spot as a swirling vortex type motion. This motion is also seen in several nearby white clouds. These bright white clouds and the Red Spot are rotating in a counter clockwise direction, except the peculiar filimentary cloud to the right of the Red Spot is going clockwise. The top of the picture shows the turbulence from the equatorial jet and more northerly atmospheric currents. The smallest clouds shown are only 70 miles (120 km) across.

  10. Photographer : JPL Range : 6 million kilometers (3.7 million miles) Central Longitude 120 degrees

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Photographer : JPL Range : 6 million kilometers (3.7 million miles) Central Longitude 120 degrees west, North is up. and 3rd from the planet. Photo taken after midnight Ganymede is slightly larger than Mercury but much less dense (twice the density of water). Its surface brightness is 4 times of Earth's Moon. Mare regions (dark features) are like the Moon's but have twice the brightness, and believed to be unlikely of rock or lava as the Moon's are. It's north pole seems covered with brighter material and may be water frost. Scattered brighter spots may be related to impact craters or source of fresh ice.

  11. 15.5 Million Americans Now Surviving Cancer

    MedlinePlus

    ... https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_159164.html 15.5 Million Americans Now Surviving Cancer: Report But better ... United States reached record numbers this year -- 15.5 million -- and the American Cancer Society predicts they' ...

  12. 15.5 Million Americans Now Surviving Cancer

    MedlinePlus

    ... medlineplus/news/fullstory_159164.html 15.5 Million Americans Now Surviving Cancer: Report But better tools needed ... numbers this year -- 15.5 million -- and the American Cancer Society predicts they'll total more than ...

  13. Archeological Finds Push First Known Cancer Back 2 Million Years

    MedlinePlus

    ... Push First Known Cancer Back 2 Million Years Discoveries challenge belief that it is a modern-day ... cancers, dating back almost 2 million years. The discoveries challenge the belief that cancer is a disease ...

  14. 470-Million-year-old black corals from China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baliński, Andrzej; Sun, Yuanlin; Dzik, Jerzy

    2012-08-01

    Phosphatic (possibly secondarily phosphatised) remains of antipatharian coralla, previously unknown in the fossil record, occur abundantly in the early Ordovician Fenxiang Formation in the Hubei Province, southern China. Probably two species (and genera) are represented, which differ in spinosity of branches. The more spinose one, Sinopathes reptans, has its lateral spines bearing regular, longitudinally arranged costellae. The early Floian geological age of this finding, about 470 Ma, supports predictions on the timing of anthozoan phylogeny derived from the molecular phylogenetic evidence. Black corals (Antipatharia) are basal to the scleractinians in the Hexacorallia clade, being more derived than sea anemones and the Zoantharia. Based on calibration of the molecular clock with Mesozoic data, the first split of lineages within the scleractinian hexacorals was proposed to take place approximately 425 million years ago. This implies that the origin of Antipatharia should precede this date. They have not been known in the fossil record because of unmineralised skeleton composed primarily of laminar chitin complexed with a protein. Unlike all recent species, the encrusting basal part of the colony dominated in the Ordovician ones and only occasionally erect branches developed, rather chaotically ramified. This presumably plesiomorphic trait seems consistent with ancient geological age and suggests that some problematic fossils from the Late Cambrian may be their, even less-derived, relatives.

  15. Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, M.

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  16. Correlation as Probability of Common Descent.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Ruma; Well, Arnold D.

    1996-01-01

    One interpretation of the Pearson product-moment correlation ("r"), correlation as the probability of originating from common descent, important to the genetic measurement of inbreeding, is examined. The conditions under which "r" can be interpreted as the probability of "identity by descent" are specified, and the possibility of generalizing this…

  17. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Grants by Random Selection Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a)...

  18. Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Sashi

    2015-01-01

    There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.

  19. Teaching Statistics and Probability: 1981 Yearbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shulte, Albert P., Ed.; Smart, James R., Ed.

    This 1981 yearbook of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) offers classroom ideas for teaching statistics and probability, viewed as important topics in the school mathematics curriculum. Statistics and probability are seen as appropriate because they: (1) provide meaningful applications of mathematics at all levels; (2) provide…

  20. Phonotactic Probabilities in Young Children's Speech Production

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zamuner, Tania S.; Gerken, Louann; Hammond, Michael

    2004-01-01

    This research explores the role of phonotactic probability in two-year-olds' production of coda consonants. Twenty-nine children were asked to repeat CVC non-words that were used as labels for pictures of imaginary animals. The CVC non-words were controlled for their phonotactic probabilities, neighbourhood densities, word-likelihood ratings, and…

  1. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall...

  2. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall...

  3. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Grants by Random Selection Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a)...

  4. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Grants by Random Selection Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a)...

  5. Average Transmission Probability of a Random Stack

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yin; Miniatura, Christian; Englert, Berthold-Georg

    2010-01-01

    The transmission through a stack of identical slabs that are separated by gaps with random widths is usually treated by calculating the average of the logarithm of the transmission probability. We show how to calculate the average of the transmission probability itself with the aid of a recurrence relation and derive analytical upper and lower…

  6. Probability Simulations by Non-Lipschitz Chaos

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices. Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  7. Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

    2016-01-01

    Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

  8. Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

  9. Laboratory-Tutorial Activities for Teaching Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wittmann, Michael C.; Morgan, Jeffrey T.; Feeley, Roger E.

    2006-01-01

    We report on the development of students' ideas of probability and probability density in a University of Maine laboratory-based general education physics course called "Intuitive Quantum Physics". Students in the course are generally math phobic with unfavorable expectations about the nature of physics and their ability to do it. We describe a…

  10. Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

    2007-01-01

    Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

  11. US cancer survivors grows to nearly 12 million

    Cancer.gov

    The number of cancer survivors in the United States increased to 11.7 million in 2007, according to a report released by NCI and CDC. There were 3 million cancer survivors in 1971 and 9.8 million in 2001.

  12. DOE gives $47 million for core research

    SciTech Connect

    Kaiser, J.

    1996-08-30

    The Department of Energy (DOE) last week took what it hopes will amount to a giant step toward solving its massive nuclear waste cleanup problem by funding the first round of 139 grants for basic research at universities and DOE labs. The $47 million Environmental management Science program, created last year by Congress, has been embraced by DOE as a fresh approach to a mind-boggling problem-the billions of liters of chemicals, radioactive waste, tainted water, and polluted soils, and hectares of contaminated buildings left by 50 years of weapons research at DOE sites. DOE officials hope that these grants are only the first installment in a long-term effort to tap the best scientific minds to solve real-world environmental problems.

  13. Saudis map $450 million gulf spill cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-11-18

    This paper reports on Saudi Arabia which has earmarked about $450 million to clean up Persian Gulf beaches polluted by history's worst oil spills, created during the Persian Gulf crisis. Details of the proposed cleanup measures were outlined by Saudi environmental officials at a seminar on the environment in Dubai, OPEC News Agency reported. The seminar was sponsored by the Gulf Area Oil Companies Mutual Aid Organization, an environmental cooperative agency set up by Persian Gulf governments. Meantime, a Saudi government report has outlined early efforts designed to contain the massive oil spills that hit the Saudi coast before oil could contaminate water intakes at the huge desalination plants serving Riyadh and cooling water facilities at Al Jubail.

  14. 196 Million Pixels: An Immersive Visualization Experience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, P. J.; Vandenberg, A.; Wang, G.

    2011-12-01

    Georgia State University (GSU) has recently implemented one of the world's largest high-resolution, tiled visualization walls specifically designed for researcher accessibility and display of data in an interactive, immersive, exploratory and collaborative experience. The Visualization Wall, comprised of 48 individual high-resolution monitors, is able to analyze, evaluate, and present data using the latest earth science research software packages. Multi-core processing and 24 graphical processing units (GPU's) allow the system to process and view data using research software applications at high resolution (+196 million pixels), while maintaining an interactive experience for the user. A Windows platform solves many application compatibility obstacles but also presents a new host of problems when scaling applications across multiple monitors. Continuous data set visualization, frame rate slowing, and graphic performance have been a challenge with the Visualization Wall. To overcome these obstacles, GSU has implemented several innovative solutions including Google Code projects, hardware accelerated browsers, and open-source software such as SAGE.

  15. Assessment of the probability of contaminating Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Judd, B. R.; North, D. W.; Pezier, J. P.

    1974-01-01

    New methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will by biologically contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. Present NASA methods are based on the Sagan-Coleman formula, which states that the probability of contamination is the product of the expected microbial release and a probability of growth. The proposed new methodology extends the Sagan-Coleman approach to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Three different types of microbial release are distinguished in the model for assessing the probability of contamination. The number of viable microbes released by each mechanism depends on the bio-burden in various locations on the spacecraft and on whether the spacecraft landing is accomplished according to plan. For each of the three release mechanisms a probability of growth is computed, using a model for transport into an environment suited to microbial growth.

  16. Quantum probability assignment limited by relativistic causality.

    PubMed

    Han, Yeong Deok; Choi, Taeseung

    2016-01-01

    Quantum theory has nonlocal correlations, which bothered Einstein, but found to satisfy relativistic causality. Correlation for a shared quantum state manifests itself, in the standard quantum framework, by joint probability distributions that can be obtained by applying state reduction and probability assignment that is called Born rule. Quantum correlations, which show nonlocality when the shared state has an entanglement, can be changed if we apply different probability assignment rule. As a result, the amount of nonlocality in quantum correlation will be changed. The issue is whether the change of the rule of quantum probability assignment breaks relativistic causality. We have shown that Born rule on quantum measurement is derived by requiring relativistic causality condition. This shows how the relativistic causality limits the upper bound of quantum nonlocality through quantum probability assignment. PMID:26971717

  17. Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.

    2011-01-01

    Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  18. Quantum probability assignment limited by relativistic causality

    PubMed Central

    Han, Yeong Deok; Choi, Taeseung

    2016-01-01

    Quantum theory has nonlocal correlations, which bothered Einstein, but found to satisfy relativistic causality. Correlation for a shared quantum state manifests itself, in the standard quantum framework, by joint probability distributions that can be obtained by applying state reduction and probability assignment that is called Born rule. Quantum correlations, which show nonlocality when the shared state has an entanglement, can be changed if we apply different probability assignment rule. As a result, the amount of nonlocality in quantum correlation will be changed. The issue is whether the change of the rule of quantum probability assignment breaks relativistic causality. We have shown that Born rule on quantum measurement is derived by requiring relativistic causality condition. This shows how the relativistic causality limits the upper bound of quantum nonlocality through quantum probability assignment. PMID:26971717

  19. 26 CFR 1.382-3 - Definitions and rules relating to a 5-percent shareholder.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    .... Because there is a shift of more than fifty percentage points in the ownership of L stock during the three... section. As a result, they remain part of the public group which owns L stock, and no owner shift results..., apply this paragraph (j)(2)— (1) On a corporation-wide basis, in which case the small...

  20. 26 CFR 1.382-3 - Definitions and rules relating to a 5-percent shareholder.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... acquisition of stock. A principal element in determining if such an understanding exists is whether the... acquisition of stock and, therefore, the Group is an entity. Thus, the acquisition of more than five percent... to a formal or informal understanding among themselves to make a coordinated acquisition of...

  1. 26 CFR 1.382-3 - Definitions and rules relating to a 5-percent shareholder.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... workout or a reorganization in a title 11 or similar case (whether as members of a creditors' committee or otherwise) and the receipt of stock by creditors in satisfaction of indebtedness pursuant to the workout...

  2. 26 CFR 1.382-3 - Definitions and rules relating to a 5-percent shareholder.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... (iii), as contained in 26 CFR part 1 revised as of April 1, 1994, for the application of paragraph (j... workout or a reorganization in a title 11 or similar case (whether as members of a creditors' committee or otherwise) and the receipt of stock by creditors in satisfaction of indebtedness pursuant to the workout...

  3. 26 CFR 1.382-3 - Definitions and rules relating to a 5-percent shareholder.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... workout or a reorganization in a title 11 or similar case (whether as members of a creditors' committee or otherwise) and the receipt of stock by creditors in satisfaction of indebtedness pursuant to the workout...

  4. 16 CFR 303.3 - Fibers present in amounts of less than 5 percent.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... OF CONGRESS RULES AND REGULATIONS UNDER THE TEXTILE FIBER PRODUCTS IDENTIFICATION ACT § 303.3 Fibers... this section shall be construed as prohibiting the disclosure of any fiber present in a textile fiber... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fibers present in amounts of less than...

  5. 16 CFR 303.3 - Fibers present in amounts of less than 5 percent.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... OF CONGRESS RULES AND REGULATIONS UNDER THE TEXTILE FIBER PRODUCTS IDENTIFICATION ACT § 303.3 Fibers... this section shall be construed as prohibiting the disclosure of any fiber present in a textile fiber... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Fibers present in amounts of less than...

  6. 16 CFR 303.3 - Fibers present in amounts of less than 5 percent.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... OF CONGRESS RULES AND REGULATIONS UNDER THE TEXTILE FIBER PRODUCTS IDENTIFICATION ACT § 303.3 Fibers... this section shall be construed as prohibiting the disclosure of any fiber present in a textile fiber... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fibers present in amounts of less than...

  7. 16 CFR 303.3 - Fibers present in amounts of less than 5 percent.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... OF CONGRESS RULES AND REGULATIONS UNDER THE TEXTILE FIBER PRODUCTS IDENTIFICATION ACT § 303.3 Fibers... this section shall be construed as prohibiting the disclosure of any fiber present in a textile fiber product which has a clearly established and definite functional significance when present in the...

  8. Corrosion behavior of aluminum-alumina composites in aerated 3.5 percent chloride solution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acevedo Hurtado, Paul Omar

    Aluminum based metal matrix composites are finding many applications in engineering. Of these Al-Al2O3 composites appear to have promise in a number of defense applications because of their mechanical properties. However, their corrosion behavior remains suspect, especially in marine environments. While efforts are being made to improve the corrosion resistance of Al-Al2O3 composites, the mechanism of corrosion is not well known. In this study, the corrosion behavior of powder metallurgy processed Al-Cu alloy reinforced with 10, 15, 20 and 25 vol. % Al2O3 particles (XT 1129, XT 2009, XT 2048, XT 2031) was evaluated in aerated 3.5% NaCl solution using microstructural and electrochemical measurements. AA1100-O and AA2024T4 monolithic alloys were also studied for comparison purposes. The composites and unreinforced alloys were subjected to potentiodynamic polarization and Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) testing. Addition of 25 vol. % Al2O 3 to the base alloys was found to increase its corrosion resistance considerably. Microstructural studies revealed the presence of intermetallic Al2Cu particles in these composites that appeared to play an important role in the observations. Pitting potential for these composites was near corrosion potential values, and repassivation potential was below the corresponding corrosion potential, indicating that these materials begin to corrode spontaneously as soon as they come in contact with the 3.5 % NaCl solution. EIS measurements indicate the occurrence of adsorption/diffusion phenomena at the interface of the composites which ultimately initiate localized or pitting corrosion. Polarization resistance values were extracted from the EIS data for all the materials tested. Electrically equivalent circuits are proposed to describe and substantiate the corrosive processes occurring in these Al-Al2O 3 composite materials.

  9. A 25.5 percent AM0 gallium arsenide grating solar cell

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weizer, V. G.; Godlewski, M. P.

    1985-01-01

    Recent calculations have shown that significant open circuit voltage gains are possible with a dot grating junction geometry. The feasibility of applying the dot geometry to the GaAs cell was investigated. This geometry is shown to result in voltage approach 1.120 V and efficiencies well over 25 percent (AM0) if good collection efficiency can be maintained. The latter is shown to be possible if one chooses the proper base resistivity and cell thickness. The above advances in efficiency are shown to be possible in the P-base cell with only minor improvements in existing technology.

  10. A 25.5 percent AMO gallium arsenide grating solar cell

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weizer, V. G.; Godlewski, M. P.

    1985-01-01

    Recent calculations have shown that significant open circuit voltage gains are possible with a dot grating junction geometry. The feasibility of applying the dot geometry to the GaAs cell was investigated. This geometry is shown to result in voltages approach 1.120 V and efficiencies well over 25 percent (AMO) if good collection efficiency can be maintained. The latter is shown to be possible if one chooses the proper base resistivity and cell thickness. The above advances in efficiency are shown to be possible in the P-base cell with only minor improvements in existing technology.

  11. 16 CFR 303.3 - Fibers present in amounts of less than 5 percent.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... OF CONGRESS RULES AND REGULATIONS UNDER THE TEXTILE FIBER PRODUCTS IDENTIFICATION ACT § 303.3 Fibers... this section shall be construed as prohibiting the disclosure of any fiber present in a textile...

  12. 30 CFR 57.22233 - Actions at 0.5 percent methane (I-C mines).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ....22233 Section 57.22233 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH SAFETY AND HEALTH STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND METAL AND NONMETAL... other work shall be permitted in affected areas....

  13. Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.; Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Barka, A.; Dieterich, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium, departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.

  14. Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.; Jones, L.M.

    1998-01-01

    For a decade, the US Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude six mainshock. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

  15. Liquefaction probability curves for surficial geologic deposits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Liquefaction probability curves that predict the probability of surface manifestations of earthquake-induced liquefaction are developed for 14 different types of surficial geologic units. The units consist of alluvial fan, beach ridge, river delta topset and foreset beds, eolian dune, point bar, flood basin, natural river and alluvial fan levees, abandoned river channel, deep-water lake, lagoonal, sandy artificial fill, and valley train deposits. Probability is conditioned on earthquake magnitude and peak ground acceleration. Curves are developed for water table depths of 1.5 and 5.0 m. Probabilities are derived from complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) that were computed from 927 cone penetration tests. For natural deposits with a water table at 1.5 m and subjected to a M7.5 earthquake with peak ground acceleration (PGA)  =  0.25g, probabilities range from 0.5 for beach ridge, point bar, and deltaic deposits. The curves also were used to assign ranges of liquefaction probabilities to the susceptibility categories proposed previously for different geologic deposits. For the earthquake described here, probabilities for susceptibility categories have ranges of 0–0.08 for low, 0.09–0.30 for moderate, 0.31–0.62 for high, and 0.63–1.00 for very high. Retrospective predictions of liquefaction during historical earthquakes based on the curves compare favorably to observations.

  16. Enhancing the view of a million galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2004-06-01

    Composite image hi-res Size hi-res: 851 KB Credits: ESA/Univ. of Leicester/I. Stewart and M. Watson XMM-Newton X-ray spectral colour composite image XMM-Newton X-ray spectral colour composite image of the Subaru/XMM-Newton Deep Field. The view gives an X-ray pseudo-colour representation of all the sources, coded according to their X-ray energy. More energetic sources are shown in blue and less energetic ones in red. This mosaic image, composed of 7 partially overlapping pointings, maps the full extent of the SXDF and corresponds to an exposure time exceeding one hundred hours. These data form the largest contiguous area over which deep X-ray observations have been performed. Composite image hi-res Size hi-res: 6215 KB Credits: NAOJ/Subaru Telescope XMM-Newton/Subaru colour composite image A colour composite image obtained by combining data taken with the Subaru Telescope in blue, red and near-infrared light. The image, worth over two hundred hours of exposure time, covers an area of sky seven times larger than the full moon. The images in blue light show details several hundred million times fainter than what can be seen with the naked eye. SXDS field hi-res Size hi-res: 448 KB Credits: NAOJ/Subaru Telescope SXDS field A particular of the SXDS field. The teardrop-shaped galaxy in the upper right portion of the frame is likely to have suffered from a collision with another galaxy. SXDS field hi-res Size hi-res: 358 KB Credits: NAOJ/Subaru Telescope SXDS field A particular of the SXDS field. The prominent spiral galaxy near the centre may be ineracting with a less-conspicuous dwarf galaxy to its lower right. One of the fundamental goals of modern astronomy is understanding the history of the Universe, and in particular learning about the processes that shape the formation and evolution of galaxies. To observe these processes as they unfold, astronomers must survey galaxies near and far, spanning a large enough volume of the Universe, so that local variations in the

  17. Semigroups of tomographic probabilities and quantum correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Man'ko, V. I.

    2008-08-01

    Semigroups of stochastic and bistochastic matrices constructed by means of spin tomograms or tomographic probabilities and their relations to the problem of Bell's inequalities and entanglement are reviewed. The probability determining the quantum state of spins and the probability densities determining the quantum states of particles with continuous variables are considered. Entropies for semigroups of stochastic and bisctochastic matrices are studied, in view of both the Shannon information entropy and its generalization like Rényi entropy. Qubit portraits of qudit states are discussed in the connection with the problem of Bell's inequality violation for entangled states.

  18. Probability distributions for a surjective unimodal map

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Hongyan; Wang, Long

    1996-04-01

    In this paper we show that the probability distributions for a surjective unimodal map can be classified into three types, δ function, asymmetric and symmetric type; by identifying the binary structures of its initial values. The Borel's normal number theorem is equivalent or prior to the Frobenius-Perron operator in analyzing the probability distributions for this kind of maps, and in particular we can constitute a multifractal probability distribution from the surjective tent map by selecting a non- Borel's normal number as the initial value.

  19. How to Steal a Million Stars?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2006-02-01

    Based on observations with ESO's Very Large Telescope, a team of Italian astronomers reports [1] that the stellar cluster Messier 12 must have lost to our Milky Way galaxy close to one million low-mass stars. ESO PR Photo 04a/06 ESO PR Photo 04a/06 The Central Part of Messier 12 "In the solar neighbourhood and in most stellar clusters, the least massive stars are the most common, and by far", said Guido De Marchi (ESA), lead author of the study. "Our observations with ESO's VLT show this is not the case for Messier 12." The team, which also includes Luigi Pulone and Francesco Paresce (INAF, Italy), measured the brightness and colours of more than 16,000 stars within the globular cluster Messier 12 [2] with the FORS1 multi-mode instrument attached to one of the Unit Telescopes of ESO's VLT at Cerro Paranal (Chile). The astronomers could study stars that are 40 million times fainter than what the unaided eye can see (magnitude 25). Located at a distance of 23,000 light years in the constellation Ophiuchus (The Serpent-holder), Messier 12 got its name by being the 12th entry in the catalogue of nebulous objects compiled in 1774 by French astronomer and comet chaser Charles Messier. It is also known to astronomers as NGC 6218 and contains about 200,000 stars, most of them having a mass between 20 and 80 percent of the mass of the Sun. "It is however clear that Messier 12 is surprisingly devoid of low-mass stars", said De Marchi. "For each solar-like star, we would expect roughly four times as many stars with half that mass. Our VLT observations only show an equal number of stars of different masses." ESO PR Photo 04b/06 ESO PR Photo 04b/06 Loosing Stars in the Milky Way Globular clusters move in extended elliptical orbits that periodically take them through the densely populated regions of our Galaxy, the plane, then high above and below, in the 'halo'. When venturing too close to the innermost and denser regions of the Milky Way, the 'bulge', a globular cluster can be

  20. Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

    2015-09-01

    We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(-N/NK), where the estimates of parameter NK are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius rex, i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA.

  1. Inclusion probability with dropout: an operational formula.

    PubMed

    Milot, E; Courteau, J; Crispino, F; Mailly, F

    2015-05-01

    In forensic genetics, a mixture of two or more contributors to a DNA profile is often interpreted using the inclusion probabilities theory. In this paper, we present a general formula for estimating the probability of inclusion (PI, also known as the RMNE probability) from a subset of visible alleles when dropouts are possible. This one-locus formula can easily be extended to multiple loci using the cumulative probability of inclusion. We show that an exact formulation requires fixing the number of contributors, hence to slightly modify the classic interpretation of the PI. We discuss the implications of our results for the enduring debate over the use of PI vs likelihood ratio approaches within the context of low template amplifications. PMID:25559642

  2. A Survey of Tables of Probability Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Kacker, Raghu; Olkin, Ingram

    2005-01-01

    This article is a survey of the tables of probability distributions published about or after the publication in 1964 of the Handbook of Mathematical Functions, edited by Abramowitz and Stegun PMID:27308104

  3. Stimulus probability effects in absolute identification.

    PubMed

    Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

    2016-05-01

    This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of presentation probability on both proportion correct and response times. The effects were moderated by the ubiquitous stimulus position effect. The accuracy and response time data were predicted by an exemplar-based model of perceptual cognition (Kent & Lamberts, 2005). The bow in discriminability was also attenuated when presentation probability for middle items was relatively high, an effect that will constrain future model development. The study provides evidence for item-specific learning in absolute identification. Implications for other theories of absolute identification are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26478959

  4. On Convergent Probability of a Random Walk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Y.-F.; Ching, W.-K.

    2006-01-01

    This note introduces an interesting random walk on a straight path with cards of random numbers. The method of recurrent relations is used to obtain the convergent probability of the random walk with different initial positions.

  5. Determining Probabilities by Examining Underlying Structure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norton, Robert M.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses how dice games pose fairness issues that appeal to students and examines a structure for three games involving two dice in a way that leads directly to the theoretical probabilities for all possible outcomes. (YDS)

  6. Neutron initiation probability in fast burst reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, X.; Du, J.; Xie, Q.; Fan, X.

    2012-07-01

    Based on the probability balance of neutron random events in multiply system, the four random process of neutron in prompt super-critical is described and then the equation of neutron initiation probability W(r,E,{Omega},t) is deduced. On the assumption of static, slightly prompt super-critical and the two factorial approximation, the formula of the average probability of 'one' neutron is derived which is the same with the result derived from the point model. The MC simulation using point model is applied in Godiva- II and CFBR-II, and the simulation result of one neutron initiation is well consistent with the theory that the initiation probability of Godiva- II inverted commas CFBR-II burst reactor are 0.00032, 0.00027 respectively on the ordinary burst operation. (authors)

  7. Probability tree algorithm for general diffusion processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ingber, Lester; Chen, Colleen; Mondescu, Radu Paul; Muzzall, David; Renedo, Marco

    2001-11-01

    Motivated by path-integral numerical solutions of diffusion processes, PATHINT, we present a tree algorithm, PATHTREE, which permits extremely fast accurate computation of probability distributions of a large class of general nonlinear diffusion processes.

  8. Transition Probability and the ESR Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McBrierty, Vincent J.

    1974-01-01

    Discusses the use of a modified electron spin resonance apparatus to demonstrate some features of the expression for the transition probability per second between two energy levels. Applications to the third year laboratory program are suggested. (CC)

  9. Non-Gaussian Photon Probability Distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solomon, Benjamin T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the axiom that the photon's probability distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The Airy disc empirical evidence shows that the best fit, if not exact, distribution is a modified Gamma mΓ distribution (whose parameters are α = r, βr/√u ) in the plane orthogonal to the motion of the photon. This modified Gamma distribution is then used to reconstruct the probability distributions along the hypotenuse from the pinhole, arc from the pinhole, and a line parallel to photon motion. This reconstruction shows that the photon's probability distribution is not a Gaussian function. However, under certain conditions, the distribution can appear to be Normal, thereby accounting for the success of quantum mechanics. This modified Gamma distribution changes with the shape of objects around it and thus explains how the observer alters the observation. This property therefore places additional constraints to quantum entanglement experiments. This paper shows that photon interaction is a multi-phenomena effect consisting of the probability to interact Pi, the probabilistic function and the ability to interact Ai, the electromagnetic function. Splitting the probability function Pi from the electromagnetic function Ai enables the investigation of the photon behavior from a purely probabilistic Pi perspective. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis is proposed as a consistent method for handling the two different phenomena, the probability function Pi and the ability to interact Ai, thus redefining radiation shielding, stealth or cloaking, and invisibility as different effects of a single phenomenon Pi of the photon probability distribution. Sub wavelength photon behavior is successfully modeled as a multi-phenomena behavior. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis provides a good fit to Otoshi's (1972) microwave shielding, Schurig et al. (2006) microwave cloaking, and Oulton et al. (2008) sub wavelength confinement; thereby providing a strong case that

  10. Robust satisficing and the probability of survival

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2014-01-01

    Concepts of robustness are sometimes employed when decisions under uncertainty are made without probabilistic information. We present a theorem that establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for non-probabilistic robustness to be equivalent to the probability of satisfying the specified outcome requirements. When this holds, probability is enhanced (or maximised) by enhancing (or maximising) robustness. Two further theorems establish important special cases. These theorems have implications for success or survival under uncertainty. Applications to foraging and finance are discussed.

  11. The spline probability hypothesis density filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sithiravel, Rajiv; Tharmarasa, Ratnasingham; McDonald, Mike; Pelletier, Michel; Kirubarajan, Thiagalingam

    2012-06-01

    The Probability Hypothesis Density Filter (PHD) is a multitarget tracker for recursively estimating the number of targets and their state vectors from a set of observations. The PHD filter is capable of working well in scenarios with false alarms and missed detections. Two distinct PHD filter implementations are available in the literature: the Sequential Monte Carlo Probability Hypothesis Density (SMC-PHD) and the Gaussian Mixture Probability Hypothesis Density (GM-PHD) filters. The SMC-PHD filter uses particles to provide target state estimates, which can lead to a high computational load, whereas the GM-PHD filter does not use particles, but restricts to linear Gaussian mixture models. The SMC-PHD filter technique provides only weighted samples at discrete points in the state space instead of a continuous estimate of the probability density function of the system state and thus suffers from the well-known degeneracy problem. This paper proposes a B-Spline based Probability Hypothesis Density (S-PHD) filter, which has the capability to model any arbitrary probability density function. The resulting algorithm can handle linear, non-linear, Gaussian, and non-Gaussian models and the S-PHD filter can also provide continuous estimates of the probability density function of the system state. In addition, by moving the knots dynamically, the S-PHD filter ensures that the splines cover only the region where the probability of the system state is significant, hence the high efficiency of the S-PHD filter is maintained at all times. Also, unlike the SMC-PHD filter, the S-PHD filter is immune to the degeneracy problem due to its continuous nature. The S-PHD filter derivations and simulations are provided in this paper.

  12. DISASTER CARE FOR 15 MILLION CALIFORNIANS

    PubMed Central

    Robinson, Harold G.

    1960-01-01

    The urgency of the crisis following a nuclear attack staggers the imagination. We would have thousands or millions of survivors making a desperate struggle to survive. Safe water supplies and waste-disposal systems would be gone. In some areas, there would be little or no food or shelter. Yet California has already manned a medical arsenal that is second to none in the United States. We have stored 115 emergency hospitals at strategic points, and through the county medical associations we have appointed cadres including physicians, nurses and technicians. Plans have been made for workers who will assist in setting up the hospitals and first aid stations. In our future operations we will continue to place strong emphasis on the medical phase of our program of disaster care. The program would be just as essential in the event of major natural disaster as nuclear war. Our objective is a simple one. We are seeking to preserve the human resources which are necessary for recovery. California's medical profession, with the allied professions of nursing and technical skills, has a vital interest in continuing operations to the maximum extent even under the most trying conditions. PMID:14437949

  13. A million X-ray detections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, N.; XMM-Newton Survey Science Centre (SSC)

    2016-06-01

    Part of the XMM-Newton Survey Science Centre responsibilities include producing an X-ray catalogue of all X-ray sources detected with XMM-Newton. The latest version, 3XMM, takes advantage of improvements made to the source characterisation, reducing the number of spurious detections, but providing better astrometric precision, greater net sensitivity, as well as spectra and timeseries for a quarter of all catalogue detections. The data release 5 (3XMM-DR5, April 2015) is derived from the first 13 years of observations with XMM-Newton. 3XMM-DR5 includes 565962 X-ray detections and 396910 unique sources, detected as many as 48 times. 3XMM-DR5 is therefore the largest X-ray source catalogue. 3XMM-DR6 will be made available during 2016 and will augment the catalogue with 70000 X-ray detections. Over the next decade the catalogue will reach 1 million X-ray detections, including galaxy clusters, galaxies, tidal disruption events, gamma-ray bursts, stars, stellar mass compact objects, supernovae, planets, comets and many other systems. Thanks to the wide range of data products for each catalogue detection, the catalogue is an excellent resource for finding populations of sources as well as new and extreme objects. Here we present results achieved from searching the catalogue and discuss improvements that will be provided in future versions.

  14. Site occupancy models with heterogeneous detection probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2006-01-01

    Models for estimating the probability of occurrence of a species in the presence of imperfect detection are important in many ecological disciplines. In these ?site occupancy? models, the possibility of heterogeneity in detection probabilities among sites must be considered because variation in abundance (and other factors) among sampled sites induces variation in detection probability (p). In this article, I develop occurrence probability models that allow for heterogeneous detection probabilities by considering several common classes of mixture distributions for p. For any mixing distribution, the likelihood has the general form of a zero-inflated binomial mixture for which inference based upon integrated likelihood is straightforward. A recent paper by Link (2003, Biometrics 59, 1123?1130) demonstrates that in closed population models used for estimating population size, different classes of mixture distributions are indistinguishable from data, yet can produce very different inferences about population size. I demonstrate that this problem can also arise in models for estimating site occupancy in the presence of heterogeneous detection probabilities. The implications of this are discussed in the context of an application to avian survey data and the development of animal monitoring programs.

  15. The cumulative reaction probability as eigenvalue problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manthe, Uwe; Miller, William H.

    1993-09-01

    It is shown that the cumulative reaction probability for a chemical reaction can be expressed (absolutely rigorously) as N(E)=∑kpk(E), where {pk} are the eigenvalues of a certain Hermitian matrix (or operator). The eigenvalues {pk} all lie between 0 and 1 and thus have the interpretation as probabilities, eigenreaction probabilities which may be thought of as the rigorous generalization of the transmission coefficients for the various states of the activated complex in transition state theory. The eigenreaction probabilities {pk} can be determined by diagonalizing a matrix that is directly available from the Hamiltonian matrix itself. It is also shown how a very efficient iterative method can be used to determine the eigenreaction probabilities for problems that are too large for a direct diagonalization to be possible. The number of iterations required is much smaller than that of previous methods, approximately the number of eigenreaction probabilities that are significantly different from zero. All of these new ideas are illustrated by application to three model problems—transmission through a one-dimensional (Eckart potential) barrier, the collinear H+H2→H2+H reaction, and the three-dimensional version of this reaction for total angular momentum J=0.

  16. Familiarity and preference for pitch probability profiles.

    PubMed

    Cui, Anja-Xiaoxing; Collett, Meghan J; Troje, Niko F; Cuddy, Lola L

    2015-05-01

    We investigated familiarity and preference judgments of participants toward a novel musical system. We exposed participants to tone sequences generated from a novel pitch probability profile. Afterward, we either asked participants to identify more familiar or we asked participants to identify preferred tone sequences in a two-alternative forced-choice task. The task paired a tone sequence generated from the pitch probability profile they had been exposed to and a tone sequence generated from another pitch probability profile at three levels of distinctiveness. We found that participants identified tone sequences as more familiar if they were generated from the same pitch probability profile which they had been exposed to. However, participants did not prefer these tone sequences. We interpret this relationship between familiarity and preference to be consistent with an inverted U-shaped relationship between knowledge and affect. The fact that participants identified tone sequences as even more familiar if they were generated from the more distinctive (caricatured) version of the pitch probability profile which they had been exposed to suggests that the statistical learning of the pitch probability profile is involved in gaining of musical knowledge. PMID:25838257

  17. The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Larget, Bret

    2013-01-01

    In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

  18. Young Star Probably Ejected From Triple System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2003-01-01

    Astronomers analyzing nearly 20 years of data from the National Science Foundation's Very Large Array radio telescope have discovered that a small star in a multiple-star system in the constellation Taurus probably has been ejected from the system after a close encounter with one of the system's more-massive components, presumed to be a compact double star. This is the first time any such event has been observed. Path of Small Star, 1983-2001 "Our analysis shows a drastic change in the orbit of this young star after it made a close approach to another object in the system," said Luis Rodriguez of the Institute of Astronomy of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). "The young star was accelerated to a large velocity by the close approach, and certainly now is in a very different, more remote orbit, and may even completely escape its companions," said Laurent Loinard, leader of the research team that also included Monica Rodriguez in addition to Luis Rodriguez. The UNAM astronomers presented their findings at the American Astronomical Society's meeting in Seattle, WA. The discovery of this chaotic event will be important for advancing our understanding of classical dynamic astronomy and of how stars evolve, including possibly providing an explanation for the production of the mysterious "brown dwarfs," the astronomers said. The scientists analyzed VLA observations of T Tauri, a multiple system of young stars some 450 light-years from Earth. The observations were made from 1983 to 2001. The T Tauri system includes a "Northern" star, the famous star that gives its name to the class of young visible stars, and a "Southern" system of stars, all orbiting each other. The VLA data were used to track the orbit of the smaller Southern star around the larger Southern object, presumed to be a pair of stars orbiting each other closely. The astronomers' plot of the smaller star's orbit shows that it followed an apparently elliptical orbit around its twin companions

  19. WISE Photometry for 400 Million SDSS Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lang, Dustin; Hogg, David W.; Schlegel, David J.

    2016-02-01

    We present photometry of images from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) of over 400 million sources detected by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We use a “forced photometry” technique, using measured SDSS source positions, star-galaxy classification, and galaxy profiles to define the sources whose fluxes are to be measured in the WISE images. We perform photometry with The Tractor image modeling code, working on our “unWISE” coaddds and taking account of the WISE point-spread function and a noise model. The result is a measurement of the flux of each SDSS source in each WISE band. Many sources have little flux in the WISE bands, so often the measurements we report are consistent with zero given our uncertainties. However, for many sources we get 3σ or 4σ measurements; these sources would not be reported by the “official” WISE pipeline and will not appear in the WISE catalog, yet they can be highly informative for some scientific questions. In addition, these small-signal measurements can be used in stacking analyses at the catalog level. The forced photometry approach has the advantage that we measure a consistent set of sources between SDSS and WISE, taking advantage of the resolution and depth of the SDSS images to interpret the WISE images; objects that are resolved in SDSS but blended together in WISE still have accurate measurements in our photometry. Our results, and the code used to produce them, are publicly available at http://unwise.me.

  20. 40 Million Years of the Iceland Plume

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parnell-Turner, R. E.; White, N.; Henstock, T.; Maclennan, J.; Murton, B. J.; Jones, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    The V-shaped ridges, straddling the mid oceanic ridges to the North and South of Iceland, provide us with a linear record of transient mantle convective circulation. Surprisingly, we know little about the structure of these ridges: prior to this study, the most recent regional seismic reflection profiles were acquired in the 1960s. During the Summer of 2010, we acquired over 3,000 km of seismic reflection data across the oceanic basin South of Iceland. The cornerstones of this programme are two 1000 km flowlines, which traverse the basin from Greenland to the European margin. The geometry of young V-shaped ridges near to the oceanic spreading center has been imaged in fine detail; older ridges, otherwise obscured in gravity datasets by sediment cover, have been resolved for the first time. We have mapped the sediment-basement interface, transformed each profile onto an astronomical time scale, and removed the effects of long wavelength plate cooling. The resulting chronology of Icelandic plume activity provides an important temporal frame of reference for plume flux over the past 40 million years. The profiles also cross major contourite drift deposits, notably the Gardar, Bjorn and Eirik drifts. Fine-scale sedimentary features imaged here demonstrate distinct episodes of drift construction; by making simple assumptions about sedimentation rates, we can show that periods of drift formation correspond to periods of enhanced deep water circulation which is in turn moderated by plume activity. From a regional point of view, this transient behaviour manifests itself in several important ways. Within sedimentary basins fringing the North Atlantic, short lived regional uplift events periodically interrupt thermal subsidence from Eocene times to the present day. From a paleoceanographic perspective, there is good correlation between V-shaped ridge activity and changes in overflow of the ancient precursor to North Atlantic Deep Water. This complete history of the Iceland

  1. Discovery of 505-million-year old chitin in the basal demosponge Vauxia gracilenta

    PubMed Central

    Ehrlich, H.; Rigby, J. Keith; Botting, J. P.; Tsurkan, M. V.; Werner, C.; Schwille, P.; Petrášek, Z.; Pisera, A.; Simon, P.; Sivkov, V. N.; Vyalikh, D. V.; Molodtsov, S. L.; Kurek, D.; Kammer, M.; Hunoldt, S.; Born, R.; Stawski, D.; Steinhof, A.; Bazhenov, V. V.; Geisler, T.

    2013-01-01

    Sponges are probably the earliest branching animals, and their fossil record dates back to the Precambrian. Identifying their skeletal structure and composition is thus a crucial step in improving our understanding of the early evolution of metazoans. Here, we present the discovery of 505–million-year-old chitin, found in exceptionally well preserved Vauxia gracilenta sponges from the Middle Cambrian Burgess Shale. Our new findings indicate that, given the right fossilization conditions, chitin is stable for much longer than previously suspected. The preservation of chitin in these fossils opens new avenues for research into other ancient fossil groups. PMID:24336573

  2. Discovery of 505-million-year old chitin in the basal demosponge Vauxia gracilenta.

    PubMed

    Ehrlich, H; Rigby, J Keith; Botting, J P; Tsurkan, M V; Werner, C; Schwille, P; Petrášek, Z; Pisera, A; Simon, P; Sivkov, V N; Vyalikh, D V; Molodtsov, S L; Kurek, D; Kammer, M; Hunoldt, S; Born, R; Stawski, D; Steinhof, A; Bazhenov, V V; Geisler, T

    2013-01-01

    Sponges are probably the earliest branching animals, and their fossil record dates back to the Precambrian. Identifying their skeletal structure and composition is thus a crucial step in improving our understanding of the early evolution of metazoans. Here, we present the discovery of 505-million-year-old chitin, found in exceptionally well preserved Vauxia gracilenta sponges from the Middle Cambrian Burgess Shale. Our new findings indicate that, given the right fossilization conditions, chitin is stable for much longer than previously suspected. The preservation of chitin in these fossils opens new avenues for research into other ancient fossil groups. PMID:24336573

  3. Enhancing the view of a million galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2004-06-01

    Composite image hi-res Size hi-res: 851 KB Credits: ESA/Univ. of Leicester/I. Stewart and M. Watson XMM-Newton X-ray spectral colour composite image XMM-Newton X-ray spectral colour composite image of the Subaru/XMM-Newton Deep Field. The view gives an X-ray pseudo-colour representation of all the sources, coded according to their X-ray energy. More energetic sources are shown in blue and less energetic ones in red. This mosaic image, composed of 7 partially overlapping pointings, maps the full extent of the SXDF and corresponds to an exposure time exceeding one hundred hours. These data form the largest contiguous area over which deep X-ray observations have been performed. Composite image hi-res Size hi-res: 6215 KB Credits: NAOJ/Subaru Telescope XMM-Newton/Subaru colour composite image A colour composite image obtained by combining data taken with the Subaru Telescope in blue, red and near-infrared light. The image, worth over two hundred hours of exposure time, covers an area of sky seven times larger than the full moon. The images in blue light show details several hundred million times fainter than what can be seen with the naked eye. SXDS field hi-res Size hi-res: 448 KB Credits: NAOJ/Subaru Telescope SXDS field A particular of the SXDS field. The teardrop-shaped galaxy in the upper right portion of the frame is likely to have suffered from a collision with another galaxy. SXDS field hi-res Size hi-res: 358 KB Credits: NAOJ/Subaru Telescope SXDS field A particular of the SXDS field. The prominent spiral galaxy near the centre may be ineracting with a less-conspicuous dwarf galaxy to its lower right. One of the fundamental goals of modern astronomy is understanding the history of the Universe, and in particular learning about the processes that shape the formation and evolution of galaxies. To observe these processes as they unfold, astronomers must survey galaxies near and far, spanning a large enough volume of the Universe, so that local variations in the

  4. Minimal entropy probability paths between genome families.

    PubMed

    Ahlbrandt, Calvin; Benson, Gary; Casey, William

    2004-05-01

    We develop a metric for probability distributions with applications to biological sequence analysis. Our distance metric is obtained by minimizing a functional defined on the class of paths over probability measures on N categories. The underlying mathematical theory is connected to a constrained problem in the calculus of variations. The solution presented is a numerical solution, which approximates the true solution in a set of cases called rich paths where none of the components of the path is zero. The functional to be minimized is motivated by entropy considerations, reflecting the idea that nature might efficiently carry out mutations of genome sequences in such a way that the increase in entropy involved in transformation is as small as possible. We characterize sequences by frequency profiles or probability vectors, in the case of DNA where N is 4 and the components of the probability vector are the frequency of occurrence of each of the bases A, C, G and T. Given two probability vectors a and b, we define a distance function based as the infimum of path integrals of the entropy function H( p) over all admissible paths p(t), 0 < or = t< or =1, with p(t) a probability vector such that p(0)=a and p(1)=b. If the probability paths p(t) are parameterized as y(s) in terms of arc length s and the optimal path is smooth with arc length L, then smooth and "rich" optimal probability paths may be numerically estimated by a hybrid method of iterating Newton's method on solutions of a two point boundary value problem, with unknown distance L between the abscissas, for the Euler-Lagrange equations resulting from a multiplier rule for the constrained optimization problem together with linear regression to improve the arc length estimate L. Matlab code for these numerical methods is provided which works only for "rich" optimal probability vectors. These methods motivate a definition of an elementary distance function which is easier and faster to calculate, works on non

  5. The role of probabilities in physics.

    PubMed

    Le Bellac, Michel

    2012-09-01

    Although modern physics was born in the XVIIth century as a fully deterministic theory in the form of Newtonian mechanics, the use of probabilistic arguments turned out later on to be unavoidable. Three main situations can be distinguished. (1) When the number of degrees of freedom is very large, on the order of Avogadro's number, a detailed dynamical description is not possible, and in fact not useful: we do not care about the velocity of a particular molecule in a gas, all we need is the probability distribution of the velocities. This statistical description introduced by Maxwell and Boltzmann allows us to recover equilibrium thermodynamics, gives a microscopic interpretation of entropy and underlies our understanding of irreversibility. (2) Even when the number of degrees of freedom is small (but larger than three) sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics makes determinism irrelevant in practice, because we cannot control the initial conditions with infinite accuracy. Although die tossing is in principle predictable, the approach to chaotic dynamics in some limit implies that our ignorance of initial conditions is translated into a probabilistic description: each face comes up with probability 1/6. (3) As is well-known, quantum mechanics is incompatible with determinism. However, quantum probabilities differ in an essential way from the probabilities introduced previously: it has been shown from the work of John Bell that quantum probabilities are intrinsic and cannot be given an ignorance interpretation based on a hypothetical deeper level of description. PMID:22609725

  6. Effects of Neutrino Decay on Oscillation Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonard, Kayla; de Gouvêa, André

    2016-01-01

    It is now well accepted that neutrinos oscillate as a quantum mechanical result of a misalignment between their mass-eigenstates and the flavor-eigenstates. We study neutrino decay—the idea that there may be new, light states that the three Standard Model flavors may be able to decay into. We consider what effects this neutrino decay would have on the observed oscillation probabilities.The Hamiltonian governs how the states change with time, so we use it to calculate an oscillation amplitude, and from that, the oscillation probability. We simplify the theoretical probabilities using results from experimental data, such as the neutrino mixing angles and mass differences. By exploring what values of the decay parameters are physically allowable, we can begin to understand just how large the decay parameters can be. We compare the probabilities in the case of no neutrino decay and in the case of maximum neutrino decay to determine how much of an effect neutrino decay could have on observations, and discuss the ability of future experiments to detect these differences.We also examine neutrino decay in the realm of CP invariance, and found that it is a new source of CP violation. Our work indicates that there is a difference in the oscillation probabilities between particle transitions and their corresponding antiparticle transitions. If neutrino decay were proven true, it could be an important factor in understanding leptogenesis and the particle-antiparticle asymmetry present in our Universe.

  7. Laboratory-tutorial activities for teaching probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wittmann, Michael C.; Morgan, Jeffrey T.; Feeley, Roger E.

    2006-12-01

    We report on the development of students’ ideas of probability and probability density in a University of Maine laboratory-based general education physics course called Intuitive Quantum Physics. Students in the course are generally math phobic with unfavorable expectations about the nature of physics and their ability to do it. We describe a set of activities used to teach concepts of probability and probability density. Rudimentary knowledge of mechanics is needed for one activity, but otherwise the material requires no additional preparation. Extensions of the activities include relating probability density to potential energy graphs for certain “touchstone” examples. Students have difficulties learning the target concepts, such as comparing the ratio of time in a region to total time in all regions. Instead, they often focus on edge effects, pattern match to previously studied situations, reason about necessary but incomplete macroscopic elements of the system, use the gambler’s fallacy, and use expectations about ensemble results rather than expectation values to predict future events. We map the development of their thinking to provide examples of problems rather than evidence of a curriculum’s success.

  8. Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

    2008-01-01

    In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

  9. Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2016-03-01

    Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

  10. Reconstructing the prior probabilities of allelic phylogenies.

    PubMed Central

    Golding, G Brian

    2002-01-01

    In general when a phylogeny is reconstructed from DNA or protein sequence data, it makes use only of the probabilities of obtaining some phylogeny given a collection of data. It is also possible to determine the prior probabilities of different phylogenies. This information can be of use in analyzing the biological causes for the observed divergence of sampled taxa. Unusually "rare" topologies for a given data set may be indicative of different biological forces acting. A recursive algorithm is presented that calculates the prior probabilities of a phylogeny for different allelic samples and for different phylogenies. This method is a straightforward extension of Ewens' sample distribution. The probability of obtaining each possible sample according to Ewens' distribution is further subdivided into each of the possible phylogenetic topologies. These probabilities depend not only on the identity of the alleles and on 4N(mu) (four times the effective population size times the neutral mutation rate) but also on the phylogenetic relationships among the alleles. Illustrations of the algorithm are given to demonstrate how different phylogenies are favored under different conditions. PMID:12072482

  11. Classical and Quantum Probability for Biologists - Introduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this review (oriented to biologists looking for applications of QM) is to provide a detailed comparative analysis of classical (Kolmogorovian) and quantum (Dirac-von Neumann) models. We will stress differences in the definition of conditional probability and as a consequence in the structures of matrices of transition probabilities, especially the condition of double stochasticity which arises naturally in QM. One of the most fundamental differences between two models is deformation of the classical formula of total probability (FTP) which plays an important role in statistics and decision making. An additional term appears in the QM-version of FTP - so called interference term. Finally, we discuss Bell's inequality and show that the common viewpoint that its violation induces either nonlocality or "death of realism" has not been completely justified. For us it is merely a sign of non-Kolmogorovianity of probabilistic data collected in a few experiments with incompatible setups of measurement devices.

  12. Detection probability of EBPSK-MODEM system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Yu; Wu, Lenan

    2016-07-01

    Since the impacting filter-based receiver is able to transform phase modulation into amplitude peak, a simple threshold decision can detect the Extend-Binary Phase Shift Keying (EBPSK) modulated ranging signal in noise environment. In this paper, an analysis of the EBPSK-MODEM system output gives the probability density function for EBPSK modulated signals plus noise. The equation of detection probability (pd) for fluctuating and non-fluctuating targets has been deduced. Also, a comparison of the pd for the EBPSK-MODEM system and pulse radar receiver is made, and some results are plotted. Moreover, the probability curves of such system with several modulation parameters are analysed. When modulation parameter is not smaller than 6, the detection performance of EBPSK-MODEM system is more excellent than traditional radar system. In addition to theoretical considerations, computer simulations are provided for illustrating the performance.

  13. Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

    PubMed

    Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

    2014-02-01

    Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. PMID:24300550

  14. Local Directed Percolation Probability in Two Dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inui, Norio; Konno, Norio; Komatsu, Genichi; Kameoka, Koichi

    1998-01-01

    Using the series expansion method and Monte Carlo simulation,we study the directed percolation probability on the square lattice Vn0=\\{ (x,y) \\in {Z}2:x+y=even, 0 ≤ y ≤ n, - y ≤ x ≤ y \\}.We calculate the local percolationprobability Pnl defined as the connection probability between theorigin and a site (0,n). The critical behavior of P∞lis clearly different from the global percolation probability P∞g characterized by a critical exponent βg.An analysis based on the Padé approximants shows βl=2βg.In addition, we find that the series expansion of P2nl can be expressed as a function of Png.

  15. Sampling Quantum Nonlocal Correlations with High Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Guillén, C. E.; Jiménez, C. H.; Palazuelos, C.; Villanueva, I.

    2016-05-01

    It is well known that quantum correlations for bipartite dichotomic measurements are those of the form {γ=(< u_i,v_jrangle)_{i,j=1}^n}, where the vectors u i and v j are in the unit ball of a real Hilbert space. In this work we study the probability of the nonlocal nature of these correlations as a function of {α=m/n}, where the previous vectors are sampled according to the Haar measure in the unit sphere of {R^m}. In particular, we prove the existence of an {α_0 > 0} such that if {α≤ α_0}, {γ} is nonlocal with probability tending to 1 as {n→ ∞}, while for {α > 2}, {γ} is local with probability tending to 1 as {n→ ∞}.

  16. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

  17. Monte Carlo simulation of scenario probability distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Glaser, R.

    1996-10-23

    Suppose a scenario of interest can be represented as a series of events. A final result R may be viewed then as the intersection of three events, A, B, and C. The probability of the result P(R) in this case is the product P(R) = P(A) P(B {vert_bar} A) P(C {vert_bar} A {intersection} B). An expert may be reluctant to estimate P(R) as a whole yet agree to supply his notions of the component probabilities in the form of prior distributions. Each component prior distribution may be viewed as the stochastic characterization of the expert`s uncertainty regarding the true value of the component probability. Mathematically, the component probabilities are treated as independent random variables and P(R) as their product; the induced prior distribution for P(R) is determined which characterizes the expert`s uncertainty regarding P(R). It may be both convenient and adequate to approximate the desired distribution by Monte Carlo simulation. Software has been written for this task that allows a variety of component priors that experts with good engineering judgment might feel comfortable with. The priors are mostly based on so-called likelihood classes. The software permits an expert to choose for a given component event probability one of six types of prior distributions, and the expert specifies the parameter value(s) for that prior. Each prior is unimodal. The expert essentially decides where the mode is, how the probability is distributed in the vicinity of the mode, and how rapidly it attenuates away. Limiting and degenerate applications allow the expert to be vague or precise.

  18. Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium

    SciTech Connect

    Çelik, Gültekin; Gökçe, Yasin; Yıldız, Murat

    2014-05-15

    Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium have been calculated using the weakest bound electron potential model theory (WBEPMT). We have employed numerical non-relativistic Hartree–Fock wavefunctions for expectation values of radii and the necessary energy values have been taken from the compilation at NIST. The results obtained with the present method agree very well with the Coulomb approximation results given by Caves (1975). Moreover, electric quadrupole transition probability values not existing in the literature for some highly excited levels have been obtained using the WBEPMT.

  19. Non-Gaussian Photon Probability Distribution

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, Benjamin T.

    2010-01-28

    This paper investigates the axiom that the photon's probability distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The Airy disc empirical evidence shows that the best fit, if not exact, distribution is a modified Gamma mGAMMA distribution (whose parameters are alpha = r, betar/sq root(u)) in the plane orthogonal to the motion of the photon. This modified Gamma distribution is then used to reconstruct the probability distributions along the hypotenuse from the pinhole, arc from the pinhole, and a line parallel to photon motion. This reconstruction shows that the photon's probability distribution is not a Gaussian function. However, under certain conditions, the distribution can appear to be Normal, thereby accounting for the success of quantum mechanics. This modified Gamma distribution changes with the shape of objects around it and thus explains how the observer alters the observation. This property therefore places additional constraints to quantum entanglement experiments. This paper shows that photon interaction is a multi-phenomena effect consisting of the probability to interact P{sub i}, the probabilistic function and the ability to interact A{sub i}, the electromagnetic function. Splitting the probability function P{sub i} from the electromagnetic function A{sub i} enables the investigation of the photon behavior from a purely probabilistic P{sub i} perspective. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis is proposed as a consistent method for handling the two different phenomena, the probability function P{sub i} and the ability to interact A{sub i}, thus redefining radiation shielding, stealth or cloaking, and invisibility as different effects of a single phenomenon P{sub i} of the photon probability distribution. Sub wavelength photon behavior is successfully modeled as a multi-phenomena behavior. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis provides a good fit to Otoshi's (1972) microwave shielding, Schurig et al.(2006) microwave cloaking, and Oulton et al.(2008) sub

  20. Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.

    PubMed

    Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

    2016-01-13

    A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary. PMID:26621989

  1. Steering in spin tomographic probability representation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Man'ko, V. I.; Markovich, L. A.

    2016-09-01

    The steering property known for two-qubit state in terms of specific inequalities for the correlation function is translated for the state of qudit with the spin j = 3 / 2. Since most steering detection inequalities are based on the correlation functions we introduce analogs of such functions for the single qudit systems. The tomographic probability representation for the qudit states is applied. The connection between the correlation function in the two-qubit system and the single qudit is presented in an integral form with an intertwining kernel calculated explicitly in tomographic probability terms.

  2. Practical algorithmic probability: an image inpainting example

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potapov, Alexey; Scherbakov, Oleg; Zhdanov, Innokentii

    2013-12-01

    Possibility of practical application of algorithmic probability is analyzed on an example of image inpainting problem that precisely corresponds to the prediction problem. Such consideration is fruitful both for the theory of universal prediction and practical image inpaiting methods. Efficient application of algorithmic probability implies that its computation is essentially optimized for some specific data representation. In this paper, we considered one image representation, namely spectral representation, for which an image inpainting algorithm is proposed based on the spectrum entropy criterion. This algorithm showed promising results in spite of very simple representation. The same approach can be used for introducing ALP-based criterion for more powerful image representations.

  3. Flood frequency: expected and unexpected probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, D.M.

    1976-01-01

    Flood-frequency curves may be defined either with or without an ' expeced probability ' adustment; and the two curves differ in the way that they attempt to average the time-sampling uncertainties. A curve with no adustment is shown to estimate a median value of both discharge and frequency of occurrence, while an expected probability curve is shown to estimate a mean frequency of flood years. The attributes and constraints of the two types of curves for various uses are discussed. 

  4. Low-probability flood risk modeling for New York City.

    PubMed

    Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Lin, Ning; Botzen, Wouter; Emanuel, Kerry; de Moel, Hans

    2013-05-01

    The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on only a single, or a few, possible flood events. The objective of this study is to assess the full distribution of hurricane flood risk in NYC. This is done by calculating potential flood damage with a flood damage model that uses many possible storms and surge heights as input. These storms are representative for the low-probability/high-impact flood hazard faced by the city. Exceedance probability-loss curves are constructed under different assumptions about the severity of flood damage. The estimated flood damage to buildings for NYC is between US$59 and 129 millions/year. The damage caused by a 1/100-year storm surge is within a range of US$2 bn-5 bn, while this is between US$5 bn and 11 bn for a 1/500-year storm surge. An analysis of flood risk in each of the five boroughs of NYC finds that Brooklyn and Queens are the most vulnerable to flooding. This study examines several uncertainties in the various steps of the risk analysis, which resulted in variations in flood damage estimations. These uncertainties include: the interpolation of flood depths; the use of different flood damage curves; and the influence of the spectra of characteristics of the simulated hurricanes. PMID:23383711

  5. Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vourdas, A.

    2014-08-01

    The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator {{D}}(H_1, H_2), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors {{P}}(H_1), {{P}}(H_2), to the subspaces H1, H2. As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities.

  6. Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

    SciTech Connect

    Vourdas, A.

    2014-08-15

    The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H{sub 1},H{sub 2}), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H{sub 1}),P(H{sub 2}), to the subspaces H{sub 1}, H{sub 2}. As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities.

  7. Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Southard, Rodney E.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

    2014-01-01

    similar and related to three primary physiographic provinces. The final regional regression analyses resulted in three sets of equations. For Regions 1 and 2, the basin characteristics of drainage area and basin shape factor were statistically significant. For Region 3, because of the small amount of data from streamgages, only drainage area was statistically significant. Average standard errors of prediction ranged from 28.7 to 38.4 percent for flood region 1, 24.1 to 43.5 percent for flood region 2, and 25.8 to 30.5 percent for region 3. The regional regression equations are only applicable to stream sites in Missouri with flows not significantly affected by regulation, channelization, backwater, diversion, or urbanization. Basins with about 5 percent or less impervious area were considered to be rural. Applicability of the equations are limited to the basin characteristic values that range from 0.11 to 8,212.38 square miles (mi2) and basin shape from 2.25 to 26.59 for Region 1, 0.17 to 4,008.92 mi2 and basin shape 2.04 to 26.89 for Region 2, and 2.12 to 2,177.58 mi2 for Region 3. Annual peak data from streamgages were used to qualitatively assess the largest floods recorded at streamgages in Missouri since the 1915 water year. Based on existing streamgage data, the 1983 flood event was the largest flood event on record since 1915. The next five largest flood events, in descending order, took place in 1993, 1973, 2008, 1994 and 1915. Since 1915, five of six of the largest floods on record occurred from 1973 to 2012.

  8. Technique for Evaluating Multiple Probability Occurrences /TEMPO/

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mezzacappa, M. A.

    1970-01-01

    Technique is described for adjustment of engineering response information by broadening the application of statistical subjective stimuli theory. The study is specifically concerned with a mathematical evaluation of the expected probability of relative occurrence which can be identified by comparison rating techniques.

  9. Spatial Probability Cuing and Right Hemisphere Damage

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaqiri, Albulena; Anderson, Britt

    2012-01-01

    In this experiment we studied statistical learning, inter-trial priming, and visual attention. We assessed healthy controls and right brain damaged (RBD) patients with and without neglect, on a simple visual discrimination task designed to measure priming effects and probability learning. All participants showed a preserved priming effect for item…

  10. Assessing Schematic Knowledge of Introductory Probability Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birney, Damian P.; Fogarty, Gerard J.; Plank, Ashley

    2005-01-01

    The ability to identify schematic knowledge is an important goal for both assessment and instruction. In the current paper, schematic knowledge of statistical probability theory is explored from the declarative-procedural framework using multiple methods of assessment. A sample of 90 undergraduate introductory statistics students was required to…

  11. Automatic Item Generation of Probability Word Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holling, Heinz; Bertling, Jonas P.; Zeuch, Nina

    2009-01-01

    Mathematical word problems represent a common item format for assessing student competencies. Automatic item generation (AIG) is an effective way of constructing many items with predictable difficulties, based on a set of predefined task parameters. The current study presents a framework for the automatic generation of probability word problems…

  12. Phonotactic Probability Effects in Children Who Stutter

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Julie D.; Byrd, Courtney T.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of "phonotactic probability", which is the frequency of different sound segments and segment sequences, on the overall fluency with which words are produced by preschool children who stutter (CWS) as well as to determine whether it has an effect on the type of stuttered disfluency…

  13. Estimating the Probability of Negative Events

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Adam J. L.; Corner, Adam; Hahn, Ulrike

    2009-01-01

    How well we are attuned to the statistics of our environment is a fundamental question in understanding human behaviour. It seems particularly important to be able to provide accurate assessments of the probability with which negative events occur so as to guide rational choice of preventative actions. One question that arises here is whether or…

  14. Large Deviations: Advanced Probability for Undergrads

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rolls, David A.

    2007-01-01

    In the branch of probability called "large deviations," rates of convergence (e.g. of the sample mean) are considered. The theory makes use of the moment generating function. So, particularly for sums of independent and identically distributed random variables, the theory can be made accessible to senior undergraduates after a first course in…

  15. Probability & Perception: The Representativeness Heuristic in Action

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yun; Vasko, Francis J.; Drummond, Trevor J.; Vasko, Lisa E.

    2014-01-01

    If the prospective students of probability lack a background in mathematical proofs, hands-on classroom activities may work well to help them to learn to analyze problems correctly. For example, students may physically roll a die twice to count and compare the frequency of the sequences. Tools such as graphing calculators or Microsoft Excel®…

  16. Simplicity and Probability in Causal Explanation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lombrozo, Tania

    2007-01-01

    What makes some explanations better than others? This paper explores the roles of simplicity and probability in evaluating competing causal explanations. Four experiments investigate the hypothesis that simpler explanations are judged both better and more likely to be true. In all experiments, simplicity is quantified as the number of causes…

  17. Exploring Concepts in Probability: Using Graphics Calculators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ghosh, Jonaki

    2004-01-01

    This article describes a project in which certain key concepts in probability were explored using graphics calculators with year 10 students. The lessons were conducted in the regular classroom where students were provided with a Casio CFX 9850 GB PLUS graphics calculator with which they were familiar from year 9. The participants in the…

  18. The Smart Potential behind Probability Matching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Schooler, Lael J.

    2008-01-01

    Probability matching is a classic choice anomaly that has been studied extensively. While many approaches assume that it is a cognitive shortcut driven by cognitive limitations, recent literature suggests that it is not a strategy per se, but rather another outcome of people's well-documented misperception of randomness. People search for patterns…

  19. Monte Carlo, Probability, Algebra, and Pi.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hinders, Duane C.

    1981-01-01

    The uses of random number generators are illustrated in three ways: (1) the solution of a probability problem using a coin; (2) the solution of a system of simultaneous linear equations using a die; and (3) the approximation of pi using darts. (MP)

  20. On the bound of first excursion probability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, J. N.

    1969-01-01

    Method has been developed to improve the lower bound of the first excursion probability that can apply to the problem with either constant or time-dependent barriers. The method requires knowledge of the joint density function of the random process at two arbitrary instants.

  1. Rethinking the learning of belief network probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Musick, R.

    1996-03-01

    Belief networks are a powerful tool for knowledge discovery that provide concise, understandable probabilistic models of data. There are methods grounded in probability theory to incrementally update the relationships described by the belief network when new information is seen, to perform complex inferences over any set of variables in the data, to incorporate domain expertise and prior knowledge into the model, and to automatically learn the model from data. This paper concentrates on part of the belief network induction problem, that of learning the quantitative structure (the conditional probabilities), given the qualitative structure. In particular, the current practice of rote learning the probabilities in belief networks can be significantly improved upon. We advance the idea of applying any learning algorithm to the task of conditional probability learning in belief networks, discuss potential benefits, and show results of applying neural networks and other algorithms to a medium sized car insurance belief network. The results demonstrate from 10 to 100% improvements in model error rates over the current approaches.

  2. Quantum temporal probabilities in tunneling systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anastopoulos, Charis; Savvidou, Ntina

    2013-09-01

    We study the temporal aspects of quantum tunneling as manifested in time-of-arrival experiments in which the detected particle tunnels through a potential barrier. In particular, we present a general method for constructing temporal probabilities in tunneling systems that (i) defines 'classical' time observables for quantum systems and (ii) applies to relativistic particles interacting through quantum fields. We show that the relevant probabilities are defined in terms of specific correlation functions of the quantum field associated with tunneling particles. We construct a probability distribution with respect to the time of particle detection that contains all information about the temporal aspects of the tunneling process. In specific cases, this probability distribution leads to the definition of a delay time that, for parity-symmetric potentials, reduces to the phase time of Bohm and Wigner. We apply our results to piecewise constant potentials, by deriving the appropriate junction conditions on the points of discontinuity. For the double square potential, in particular, we demonstrate the existence of (at least) two physically relevant time parameters, the delay time and a decay rate that describes the escape of particles trapped in the inter-barrier region. Finally, we propose a resolution to the paradox of apparent superluminal velocities for tunneling particles. We demonstrate that the idea of faster-than-light speeds in tunneling follows from an inadmissible use of classical reasoning in the description of quantum systems.

  3. Conceptual Variation and Coordination in Probability Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nilsson, Per

    2009-01-01

    This study investigates students' conceptual variation and coordination among theoretical and experimental interpretations of probability. In the analysis we follow how Swedish students (12-13 years old) interact with a dice game, specifically designed to offer the students opportunities to elaborate on the logic of sample space,…

  4. Teaching Mathematics with Technology: Probability Simulations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bright, George W.

    1989-01-01

    Discussed are the use of probability simulations in a mathematics classroom. Computer simulations using regular dice and special dice are described. Sample programs used to generate 100 rolls of a pair of dice in BASIC and Logo languages are provided. (YP)

  5. Probability in Action: The Red Traffic Light

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shanks, John A.

    2007-01-01

    Emphasis on problem solving in mathematics has gained considerable attention in recent years. While statistics teaching has always been problem driven, the same cannot be said for the teaching of probability where discrete examples involving coins and playing cards are often the norm. This article describes an application of simple probability…

  6. Confusion between Odds and Probability, a Pandemic?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fulton, Lawrence V.; Mendez, Francis A.; Bastian, Nathaniel D.; Musal, R. Muzaffer

    2012-01-01

    This manuscript discusses the common confusion between the terms probability and odds. To emphasize the importance and responsibility of being meticulous in the dissemination of information and knowledge, this manuscript reveals five cases of sources of inaccurate statistical language imbedded in the dissemination of information to the general…

  7. Posterior Probabilities for a Consensus Ordering.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fligner, Michael A.; Verducci, Joseph S.

    1990-01-01

    The concept of consensus ordering is defined, and formulas for exact and approximate posterior probabilities for consensus ordering are developed under the assumption of a generalized Mallows' model with a diffuse conjugate prior. These methods are applied to a data set concerning 98 college students. (SLD)

  8. Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Student Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Actuarial Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The materials are centered on the fictional town of Happy Shores, a coastal community which is at risk for hurricanes. Actuaries at an insurance company figure out the risks and…

  9. Learning a Probability Distribution Efficiently and Reliably

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laird, Philip; Gamble, Evan

    1988-01-01

    A new algorithm, called the CDF-Inversion Algorithm, is described. Using it, one can efficiently learn a probability distribution over a finite set to a specified accuracy and confidence. The algorithm can be extended to learn joint distributions over a vector space. Some implementation results are described.

  10. Five-Parameter Bivariate Probability Distribution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tubbs, J.; Brewer, D.; Smith, O. W.

    1986-01-01

    NASA technical memorandum presents four papers about five-parameter bivariate gamma class of probability distributions. With some overlap of subject matter, papers address different aspects of theories of these distributions and use in forming statistical models of such phenomena as wind gusts. Provides acceptable results for defining constraints in problems designing aircraft and spacecraft to withstand large wind-gust loads.

  11. Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Teacher Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Actuarial Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The modules also introduce students to real world math concepts and problems that property and casualty actuaries come across in their work. They are designed to be used by teachers and…

  12. Independent Events in Elementary Probability Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Csenki, Attila

    2011-01-01

    In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): If the n events E[subscript 1],…

  13. Probability distribution functions in turbulent convection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balachandar, S.; Sirovich, L.

    1991-01-01

    Results of an extensive investigation of probability distribution functions (pdfs) for Rayleigh-Benard convection, in hard turbulence regime, are presented. It is shown that the pdfs exhibit a high degree of internal universality. In certain cases this universality is established within two Kolmogorov scales of a boundary. A discussion of the factors leading to the universality is presented.

  14. Monte Carlo methods to calculate impact probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rickman, H.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wajer, P.; Gabryszewski, R.; Valsecchi, G. B.

    2014-09-01

    Context. Unraveling the events that took place in the solar system during the period known as the late heavy bombardment requires the interpretation of the cratered surfaces of the Moon and terrestrial planets. This, in turn, requires good estimates of the statistical impact probabilities for different source populations of projectiles, a subject that has received relatively little attention, since the works of Öpik (1951, Proc. R. Irish Acad. Sect. A, 54, 165) and Wetherill (1967, J. Geophys. Res., 72, 2429). Aims: We aim to work around the limitations of the Öpik and Wetherill formulae, which are caused by singularities due to zero denominators under special circumstances. Using modern computers, it is possible to make good estimates of impact probabilities by means of Monte Carlo simulations, and in this work, we explore the available options. Methods: We describe three basic methods to derive the average impact probability for a projectile with a given semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination with respect to a target planet on an elliptic orbit. One is a numerical averaging of the Wetherill formula; the next is a Monte Carlo super-sizing method using the target's Hill sphere. The third uses extensive minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) calculations for a Monte Carlo sampling of potentially impacting orbits, along with calculations of the relevant interval for the timing of the encounter allowing collision. Numerical experiments are carried out for an intercomparison of the methods and to scrutinize their behavior near the singularities (zero relative inclination and equal perihelion distances). Results: We find an excellent agreement between all methods in the general case, while there appear large differences in the immediate vicinity of the singularities. With respect to the MOID method, which is the only one that does not involve simplifying assumptions and approximations, the Wetherill averaging impact probability departs by diverging toward

  15. Strategies to choose from millions of imputed sequence variants

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Millions of sequence variants are known, but subsets are needed for routine genomic predictions or to include on genotyping arrays. Variant selection and imputation strategies were tested using 26 984 simulated reference bulls, of which 1 000 had 30 million sequence variants, 773 had 600 000 markers...

  16. The Million Hearts initiative: Guidelines and best practices.

    PubMed

    Melnyk, Bernadette Mazurek; Orsolini, Liana; Gawlik, Kate; Braun, Lynne T; Chyun, Deborah A; Conn, Vicki S; Dunbar-Jacob, Jacqueline; Lewis, Lisa M; Melkus, Gail D'Eramo; Millan, Angelica; Rice, Virginia Hill; Wilbur, JoEllen; Nowlin, Sarah; Olin, Abigail R

    2016-02-18

    Million Hearts is a national initiative to improve the nation's cardiovascular health through evidence-based practices and prevention. This article reviews the ABCS of Million Hearts with an emphasis on NP-led care models. Recommendations for clinical practice, education, research, and health policy are highlighted. PMID:26745737

  17. 12 Scientists Will Share $120-Million from Saudis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guterman, Lila

    2008-01-01

    This spring 12 scientists found themselves in an unusual position--they have to figure out how to spend $2-million every year for the next five years. The money adds up to $10-million per researcher. In May the researchers made a pilgrimage to the source of the generous grants: King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, a graduate…

  18. The albedo effect on neutron transmission probability.

    PubMed

    Khanouchi, A; Sabir, A; Boulkheir, M; Ichaoui, R; Ghassoun, J; Jehouani, A

    1997-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the albedo effect on the neutron transmission probability through slab shields. For this reason we have considered an infinite homogeneous slab having a fixed thickness equal to 20 lambda (lambda is the mean free path of the neutron in the slab). This slab is characterized by the factor Ps (scattering probability) and contains a vacuum channel which is formed by two horizontal parts and an inclined one (David, M. C. (1962) Duc and Voids in shields. In Reactor Handbook, Vol. III, Part B, p. 166). The thickness of the vacuum channel is taken equal to 2 lambda. An infinite plane source of neutrons is placed on the first of the slab (left face) and detectors, having windows equal to 2 lambda, are placed on the second face of the slab (right face). Neutron histories are sampled by the Monte Carlo method (Booth, T. E. and Hendricks, J. S. (1994) Nuclear Technology 5) using exponential biasing in order to increase the Monte Carlo calculation efficiency (Levitt, L. B. (1968) Nuclear Science and Engineering 31, 500-504; Jehouani, A., Ghassoun, J. and Abouker, A. (1994) In Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Radiation Physics, Rabat, Morocco) and we have applied the statistical weight method which supposes that the neutron is born at the source with a unit statistical weight and after each collision this weight is corrected. For different values of the scattering probability and for different slopes of the inclined part of the channel we have calculated the neutron transmission probability for different positions of the detectors versus the albedo at the vacuum channel-medium interface. Some analytical representations are also presented for these transmission probabilities. PMID:9463883

  19. Quantum temporal probabilities in tunneling systems

    SciTech Connect

    Anastopoulos, Charis Savvidou, Ntina

    2013-09-15

    We study the temporal aspects of quantum tunneling as manifested in time-of-arrival experiments in which the detected particle tunnels through a potential barrier. In particular, we present a general method for constructing temporal probabilities in tunneling systems that (i) defines ‘classical’ time observables for quantum systems and (ii) applies to relativistic particles interacting through quantum fields. We show that the relevant probabilities are defined in terms of specific correlation functions of the quantum field associated with tunneling particles. We construct a probability distribution with respect to the time of particle detection that contains all information about the temporal aspects of the tunneling process. In specific cases, this probability distribution leads to the definition of a delay time that, for parity-symmetric potentials, reduces to the phase time of Bohm and Wigner. We apply our results to piecewise constant potentials, by deriving the appropriate junction conditions on the points of discontinuity. For the double square potential, in particular, we demonstrate the existence of (at least) two physically relevant time parameters, the delay time and a decay rate that describes the escape of particles trapped in the inter-barrier region. Finally, we propose a resolution to the paradox of apparent superluminal velocities for tunneling particles. We demonstrate that the idea of faster-than-light speeds in tunneling follows from an inadmissible use of classical reasoning in the description of quantum systems. -- Highlights: •Present a general methodology for deriving temporal probabilities in tunneling systems. •Treatment applies to relativistic particles interacting through quantum fields. •Derive a new expression for tunneling time. •Identify new time parameters relevant to tunneling. •Propose a resolution of the superluminality paradox in tunneling.

  20. Neural representation of probabilities for Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Rich, Dylan; Cazettes, Fanny; Wang, Yunyan; Peña, José Luis; Fischer, Brian J

    2015-04-01

    Bayesian models are often successful in describing perception and behavior, but the neural representation of probabilities remains in question. There are several distinct proposals for the neural representation of probabilities, but they have not been directly compared in an example system. Here we consider three models: a non-uniform population code where the stimulus-driven activity and distribution of preferred stimuli in the population represent a likelihood function and a prior, respectively; the sampling hypothesis which proposes that the stimulus-driven activity over time represents a posterior probability and that the spontaneous activity represents a prior; and the class of models which propose that a population of neurons represents a posterior probability in a distributed code. It has been shown that the non-uniform population code model matches the representation of auditory space generated in the owl's external nucleus of the inferior colliculus (ICx). However, the alternative models have not been tested, nor have the three models been directly compared in any system. Here we tested the three models in the owl's ICx. We found that spontaneous firing rate and the average stimulus-driven response of these neurons were not consistent with predictions of the sampling hypothesis. We also found that neural activity in ICx under varying levels of sensory noise did not reflect a posterior probability. On the other hand, the responses of ICx neurons were consistent with the non-uniform population code model. We further show that Bayesian inference can be implemented in the non-uniform population code model using one spike per neuron when the population is large and is thus able to support the rapid inference that is necessary for sound localization. PMID:25561333

  1. Small domes on Venus: probable analogs of Icelandic lava shields

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garvin, James B.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.

    1990-01-01

    On the basis of observed shapes and volumetric estimates, we interpret small, dome-like features on radar images of Venus to be analogs of Icelandic lava-shield volcanoes. Using morphometric data for venusian domes in Aubele and Slyuta (in press), as well as our own measurements of representative dome volumes and areas from Tethus Regio, we demonstrate that the characteristic aspect ratios and flank slopes of these features are consistent with a subclass of low Icelandic lava-shield volcanoes (LILS ). LILS are slightly convex in cross-section with typical flank slopes of ∼3°. Plausible lava-shield-production rates for the venusian plains suggest formation of ∼53 million shields over the past 0.25 Ga. The cumulative global volume of lava that would be associated with this predicted number of lava shields is only a factor of 3–4 times that of a single oceanic composite shield volcano such as Mauna Loa. The global volume of all venusian lava shields in the 0.5–20-km size range would only contribute a meter of resurfacing over geologically significant time scales. Thus, venusian analogs to LILS may represent the most abundant landform on the globally dominant plains of Venus, but would be insignificant with regard to the global volume of lava extruded. As in Iceland, associated lavas from fissure eruptions probably dominate plains volcanism and should be evident on the higher resolution Magellan radar images.

  2. Using High-Probability Foods to Increase the Acceptance of Low-Probability Foods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meier, Aimee E.; Fryling, Mitch J.; Wallace, Michele D.

    2012-01-01

    Studies have evaluated a range of interventions to treat food selectivity in children with autism and related developmental disabilities. The high-probability instructional sequence is one intervention with variable results in this area. We evaluated the effectiveness of a high-probability sequence using 3 presentations of a preferred food on…

  3. A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Jason; Lawman, Joshua; Murphy, Rachael; Nelson, Marissa

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

  4. Killeen's Probability of Replication and Predictive Probabilities: How to Compute, Use, and Interpret Them

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lecoutre, Bruno; Lecoutre, Marie-Paule; Poitevineau, Jacques

    2010-01-01

    P. R. Killeen's (2005a) probability of replication ("p[subscript rep]") of an experimental result is the fiducial Bayesian predictive probability of finding a same-sign effect in a replication of an experiment. "p[subscript rep]" is now routinely reported in "Psychological Science" and has also begun to appear in other journals. However, there is…

  5. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  6. From data to probability densities without histograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berg, Bernd A.; Harris, Robert C.

    2008-09-01

    When one deals with data drawn from continuous variables, a histogram is often inadequate to display their probability density. It deals inefficiently with statistical noise, and binsizes are free parameters. In contrast to that, the empirical cumulative distribution function (obtained after sorting the data) is parameter free. But it is a step function, so that its differentiation does not give a smooth probability density. Based on Fourier series expansion and Kolmogorov tests, we introduce a simple method, which overcomes this problem. Error bars on the estimated probability density are calculated using a jackknife method. We give several examples and provide computer code reproducing them. You may want to look at the corresponding figures 4 to 9 first. Program summaryProgram title: cdf_to_pd Catalogue identifier: AEBC_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEBC_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 2758 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 18 594 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran 77 Computer: Any capable of compiling and executing Fortran code Operating system: Any capable of compiling and executing Fortran code Classification: 4.14, 9 Nature of problem: When one deals with data drawn from continuous variables, a histogram is often inadequate to display the probability density. It deals inefficiently with statistical noise, and binsizes are free parameters. In contrast to that, the empirical cumulative distribution function (obtained after sorting the data) is parameter free. But it is a step function, so that its differentiation does not give a smooth probability density. Solution method: Based on Fourier series expansion and Kolmogorov tests, we introduce a simple method, which

  7. Assessing the Probability that a Finding Is Genuine for Large-Scale Genetic Association Studies

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Chia-Ling; Vsevolozhskaya, Olga A.; Zaykin, Dmitri V.

    2015-01-01

    Genetic association studies routinely involve massive numbers of statistical tests accompanied by P-values. Whole genome sequencing technologies increased the potential number of tested variants to tens of millions. The more tests are performed, the smaller P-value is required to be deemed significant. However, a small P-value is not equivalent to small chances of a spurious finding and significance thresholds may fail to serve as efficient filters against false results. While the Bayesian approach can provide a direct assessment of the probability that a finding is spurious, its adoption in association studies has been slow, due in part to the ubiquity of P-values and the automated way they are, as a rule, produced by software packages. Attempts to design simple ways to convert an association P-value into the probability that a finding is spurious have been met with difficulties. The False Positive Report Probability (FPRP) method has gained increasing popularity. However, FPRP is not designed to estimate the probability for a particular finding, because it is defined for an entire region of hypothetical findings with P-values at least as small as the one observed for that finding. Here we propose a method that lets researchers extract probability that a finding is spurious directly from a P-value. Considering the counterpart of that probability, we term this method POFIG: the Probability that a Finding is Genuine. Our approach shares FPRP's simplicity, but gives a valid probability that a finding is spurious given a P-value. In addition to straightforward interpretation, POFIG has desirable statistical properties. The POFIG average across a set of tentative associations provides an estimated proportion of false discoveries in that set. POFIGs are easily combined across studies and are immune to multiple testing and selection bias. We illustrate an application of POFIG method via analysis of GWAS associations with Crohn's disease. PMID:25955023

  8. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

  9. Earthquake probabilities: theoretical assessments and reality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2013-12-01

    It is of common knowledge that earthquakes are complex phenomena which classification and sizing remain serious problems of the contemporary seismology. In general, their frequency-magnitude distribution exhibit power law scaling. This scaling differs significantly when different time and/or space domains are considered. At the scale of a particular earthquake rupture zone the frequency of similar size events is usually estimated to be about once in several hundred years. Evidently, contemporary seismology does not possess enough reported instrumental data for any reliable quantification of an earthquake probability at a given place of expected event. Regretfully, most of the state-of-the-art theoretical approaches to assess probability of seismic events are based on trivial (e.g. Poisson, periodic, etc) or, conversely, delicately-designed (e.g. STEP, ETAS, etc) models of earthquake sequences. Some of these models are evidently erroneous, some can be rejected by the existing statistics, and some are hardly testable in our life-time. Nevertheless such probabilistic counts including seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting when used on practice eventually mislead to scientifically groundless advices communicated to decision makers and inappropriate decisions. As a result, the population of seismic regions continues facing unexpected risk and losses. The international project Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is on the wrong track, if it continues to base seismic risk estimates on the standard, mainly probabilistic, methodology to assess seismic hazard. It is generally accepted that earthquakes are infrequent, low-probability events. However, they keep occurring at earthquake-prone areas with 100% certainty. Given the expectation of seismic event once per hundred years, the daily probability of occurrence on a certain date may range from 0 to 100% depending on a choice of probability space (which is yet unknown and, therefore, made by a subjective lucky chance

  10. Approximate probability distributions of the master equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Philipp; Grima, Ramon

    2015-07-01

    Master equations are common descriptions of mesoscopic systems. Analytical solutions to these equations can rarely be obtained. We here derive an analytical approximation of the time-dependent probability distribution of the master equation using orthogonal polynomials. The solution is given in two alternative formulations: a series with continuous and a series with discrete support, both of which can be systematically truncated. While both approximations satisfy the system size expansion of the master equation, the continuous distribution approximations become increasingly negative and tend to oscillations with increasing truncation order. In contrast, the discrete approximations rapidly converge to the underlying non-Gaussian distributions. The theory is shown to lead to particularly simple analytical expressions for the probability distributions of molecule numbers in metabolic reactions and gene expression systems.

  11. Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paielli, Russell A.; Erzberger, Heinz

    1996-01-01

    The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. A method is developed in this paper to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and Monte Carlo validation are presented.

  12. Continuum ionization transition probabilities of atomic oxygen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Samson, J. R.; Petrosky, V. E.

    1973-01-01

    The technique of photoelectron spectroscopy was used to obtain the relative continuum transition probabilities of atomic oxygen at 584 A for transitions from 3P ground state into the 4S, D2, and P2 states of the ion. Transition probability ratios for the D2 and P2 states relative to the S4 state of the ion are 1.57 + or - 0.14 and 0.82 + or - 0.07, respectively. In addition, transitions from excited O2(a 1 Delta g) state into the O2(+)(2 Phi u and 2 Delta g) were observed. The adiabatic ionization potential of O2(+)(2 Delta g) was measured as 18.803 + or - 0.006 eV.

  13. Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

    2016-01-01

    While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.

  14. Estimation of transition probabilities of credit ratings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2015-12-01

    The present research is based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal. The components in the vector mi (mi1, mi2,⋯, mi10) may first be used to denote the credit ratings of the ten companies in the i-th quarter. The vector mi+1 in the next quarter is modelled to be dependent on the vector mi via a conditional distribution which is derived from a 20-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) for getting mi+1,j = l given that mi, j = k is then computed from the conditional distribution. It is found that the variation of the transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) as i varies is able to give indication for the possible transition of the credit rating of the j-th company in the near future.

  15. Multiple model cardinalized probability hypothesis density filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgescu, Ramona; Willett, Peter

    2011-09-01

    The Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter propagates the first-moment approximation to the multi-target Bayesian posterior distribution while the Cardinalized PHD (CPHD) filter propagates both the posterior likelihood of (an unlabeled) target state and the posterior probability mass function of the number of targets. Extensions of the PHD filter to the multiple model (MM) framework have been published and were implemented either with a Sequential Monte Carlo or a Gaussian Mixture approach. In this work, we introduce the multiple model version of the more elaborate CPHD filter. We present the derivation of the prediction and update steps of the MMCPHD particularized for the case of two target motion models and proceed to show that in the case of a single model, the new MMCPHD equations reduce to the original CPHD equations.

  16. Volcano shapes, entropies, and eruption probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gudmundsson, Agust; Mohajeri, Nahid

    2014-05-01

    We propose that the shapes of polygenetic volcanic edifices reflect the shapes of the associated probability distributions of eruptions. In this view, the peak of a given volcanic edifice coincides roughly with the peak of the probability (or frequency) distribution of its eruptions. The broadness and slopes of the edifices vary widely, however. The shapes of volcanic edifices can be approximated by various distributions, either discrete (binning or histogram approximation) or continuous. For a volcano shape (profile) approximated by a normal curve, for example, the broadness would be reflected in its standard deviation (spread). Entropy (S) of a discrete probability distribution is a measure of the absolute uncertainty as to the next outcome/message: in this case, the uncertainty as to time and place of the next eruption. A uniform discrete distribution (all bins of equal height), representing a flat volcanic field or zone, has the largest entropy or uncertainty. For continuous distributions, we use differential entropy, which is a measure of relative uncertainty, or uncertainty change, rather than absolute uncertainty. Volcano shapes can be approximated by various distributions, from which the entropies and thus the uncertainties as regards future eruptions can be calculated. We use the Gibbs-Shannon formula for the discrete entropies and the analogues general formula for the differential entropies and compare their usefulness for assessing the probabilities of eruptions in volcanoes. We relate the entropies to the work done by the volcano during an eruption using the Helmholtz free energy. Many factors other than the frequency of eruptions determine the shape of a volcano. These include erosion, landslides, and the properties of the erupted materials (including their angle of repose). The exact functional relation between the volcano shape and the eruption probability distribution must be explored for individual volcanoes but, once established, can be used to

  17. Probability and Statistics in Aerospace Engineering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rheinfurth, M. H.; Howell, L. W.

    1998-01-01

    This monograph was prepared to give the practicing engineer a clear understanding of probability and statistics with special consideration to problems frequently encountered in aerospace engineering. It is conceived to be both a desktop reference and a refresher for aerospace engineers in government and industry. It could also be used as a supplement to standard texts for in-house training courses on the subject.

  18. Investigation of Flood Inundation Probability in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chia-Ho; Lai, Yen-Wei; Chang, Tsang-Jung

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located at a special point, which is in the path of typhoons from northeast Pacific Ocean. Taiwan is also situated in a tropical-subtropical transition zone. As a result, rainfall is abundant all the year round, especially in summer and autumn. For flood inundation analysis in Taiwan, there exist a lot of uncertainties in hydrological, hydraulic and land-surface topography characteristics, which can change flood inundation characteristics. According to the 7th work item of article 22 in Disaster Prevention and Protection Act in Taiwan, for preventing flood disaster being deteriorating, investigation analysis of disaster potentials, hazardous degree and situation simulation must be proceeded with scientific approaches. However, the flood potential analysis uses a deterministic approach to define flood inundation without considering data uncertainties. This research combines data uncertainty concept in flood inundation maps for showing flood probabilities in each grid. It can be an emergency evacuation basis as typhoons come and extremely torrential rain begin. The research selects Hebauyu watershed of Chiayi County as the demonstration area. Owing to uncertainties of data used, sensitivity analysis is first conducted by using Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS). LHS data sets are next input into an integrated numerical model, which is herein developed to assess flood inundation hazards in coastal lowlands, base on the extension of the 1-D river routing model and the 2-D inundation routing model. Finally, the probability of flood inundation simulation is calculated, and the flood inundation probability maps are obtained. Flood Inundation probability maps can be an alternative of the old flood potential maps for being a regard of building new hydraulic infrastructure in the future.

  19. Sampling probability distributions of lesions in mammograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Looney, P.; Warren, L. M.; Dance, D. R.; Young, K. C.

    2015-03-01

    One approach to image perception studies in mammography using virtual clinical trials involves the insertion of simulated lesions into normal mammograms. To facilitate this, a method has been developed that allows for sampling of lesion positions across the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections in accordance with measured distributions of real lesion locations. 6825 mammograms from our mammography image database were segmented to find the breast outline. The outlines were averaged and smoothed to produce an average outline for each laterality and radiographic projection. Lesions in 3304 mammograms with malignant findings were mapped on to a standardised breast image corresponding to the average breast outline using piecewise affine transforms. A four dimensional probability distribution function was found from the lesion locations in the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections for calcification and noncalcification lesions. Lesion locations sampled from this probability distribution function were mapped on to individual mammograms using a piecewise affine transform which transforms the average outline to the outline of the breast in the mammogram. The four dimensional probability distribution function was validated by comparing it to the two dimensional distributions found by considering each radiographic projection and laterality independently. The correlation of the location of the lesions sampled from the four dimensional probability distribution function across radiographic projections was shown to match the correlation of the locations of the original mapped lesion locations. The current system has been implemented as a web-service on a server using the Python Django framework. The server performs the sampling, performs the mapping and returns the results in a javascript object notation format.

  20. Non-signalling Theories and Generalized Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tylec, Tomasz I.; Kuś, Marek; Krajczok, Jacek

    2016-04-01

    We provide mathematically rigorous justification of using term probability in connection to the so called non-signalling theories, known also as Popescu's and Rohrlich's box worlds. No only do we prove correctness of these models (in the sense that they describe composite system of two independent subsystems) but we obtain new properties of non-signalling boxes and expose new tools for further investigation. Moreover, it allows strightforward generalization to more complicated systems.

  1. Non-signalling Theories and Generalized Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tylec, Tomasz I.; Kuś, Marek; Krajczok, Jacek

    2016-09-01

    We provide mathematically rigorous justification of using term probability in connection to the so called non-signalling theories, known also as Popescu's and Rohrlich's box worlds. No only do we prove correctness of these models (in the sense that they describe composite system of two independent subsystems) but we obtain new properties of non-signalling boxes and expose new tools for further investigation. Moreover, it allows strightforward generalization to more complicated systems.

  2. Continuum ionization transition probabilities of atomic oxygen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Samson, J. A. R.; Petrosky, V. E.

    1974-01-01

    The technique of photoelectron spectroscopy was employed in the investigation. Atomic oxygen was produced in a microwave discharge operating at a power of 40 W and at a pressure of approximately 20 mtorr. The photoelectron spectrum of the oxygen with and without the discharge is shown. The atomic states can be clearly seen. In connection with the measurement of the probability for transitions into the various ionic states, the analyzer collection efficiency was determined as a function of electron energy.

  3. Computational methods for probability of instability calculations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Y.-T.; Burnside, O. H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper summarizes the development of the methods and a computer program to compute the probability of instability of a dynamic system than can be represented by a system of second-order ordinary linear differential equations. Two instability criteria based upon the roots of the characteristics equation or Routh-Hurwitz test functions are investigated. Computational methods based on system reliability analysis methods and importance sampling concepts are proposed to perform efficient probabilistic analysis. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the methods.

  4. SureTrak Probability of Impact Display

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elliott, John

    2012-01-01

    The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.

  5. Classical probabilities for Majorana and Weyl spinors

    SciTech Connect

    Wetterich, C.

    2011-08-15

    Highlights: > Map of classical statistical Ising model to fermionic quantum field theory. > Lattice-regularized real Grassmann functional integral for single Weyl spinor. > Emerging complex structure characteristic for quantum physics. > A classical statistical ensemble describes a quantum theory. - Abstract: We construct a map between the quantum field theory of free Weyl or Majorana fermions and the probability distribution of a classical statistical ensemble for Ising spins or discrete bits. More precisely, a Grassmann functional integral based on a real Grassmann algebra specifies the time evolution of the real wave function q{sub {tau}}(t) for the Ising states {tau}. The time dependent probability distribution of a generalized Ising model obtains as p{sub {tau}}(t)=q{sub {tau}}{sup 2}(t). The functional integral employs a lattice regularization for single Weyl or Majorana spinors. We further introduce the complex structure characteristic for quantum mechanics. Probability distributions of the Ising model which correspond to one or many propagating fermions are discussed explicitly. Expectation values of observables can be computed equivalently in the classical statistical Ising model or in the quantum field theory for fermions.

  6. Chemisorptive electron emission versus sticking probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Böttcher, Artur; Niehus, Horst

    2001-07-01

    The chemisorption of N2O on thin Cs films has been studied by monitoring the time evolution of the sticking probability as well as the kinetics of the low-energy electron emission. By combining the data sets, two time domains become distinguishable: the initial chemisorption stage is characterized by a high sticking probability (0.1probability of less than 0.01. Such evident anticoincidence between the exoemission and the chemisorption excludes the model of surface harpooning as the elementary process responsible for the electron emission in the late chemisorption stage. A long-term emission decay has also been observed after turning off the flux of chemisorbing molecules. A model is proposed that attributes both, the late chemisorptive and the nonchemisorptive electron emission to the relaxation of a narrow state originated from an oxygen vacancy in the Cs oxide layer terminating the surface. The presence of such a state has been confirmed by the metastable de-excitation spectroscopy [MDS, He*(21S)].

  7. The Probability Distribution of Daily Streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blum, A.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Flow duration curves (FDCs) are a graphical illustration of the cumulative distribution of streamflow. Daily streamflows often range over many orders of magnitude, making it extremely challenging to find a probability distribution function (pdf) which can mimic the steady state or period of record FDC (POR-FDC). Median annual FDCs (MA-FDCs) describe the pdf of daily streamflow in a typical year. For POR- and MA-FDCs, Lmoment diagrams, visual assessments of FDCs and Quantile-Quantile probability plot correlation coefficients are used to evaluate goodness of fit (GOF) of candidate probability distributions. FDCs reveal that both four-parameter kappa (KAP) and three-parameter generalized Pareto (GP3) models result in very high GOF for the MA-FDC and a relatively lower GOF for POR-FDCs at over 500 rivers across the coterminous U.S. Physical basin characteristics, such as baseflow index as well as hydroclimatic indices such as the aridity index and the runoff ratio are found to be correlated with one of the shape parameters (kappa) of the KAP and GP3 pdfs. Our work also reveals several important areas for future research including improved parameter estimators for the KAP pdf, as well as increasing our understanding of the conditions which give rise to improved GOF of analytical pdfs to large samples of daily streamflows.

  8. Bacteria survival probability in bactericidal filter paper.

    PubMed

    Mansur-Azzam, Nura; Hosseinidoust, Zeinab; Woo, Su Gyeong; Vyhnalkova, Renata; Eisenberg, Adi; van de Ven, Theo G M

    2014-05-01

    Bactericidal filter papers offer the simplicity of gravity filtration to simultaneously eradicate microbial contaminants and particulates. We previously detailed the development of biocidal block copolymer micelles that could be immobilized on a filter paper to actively eradicate bacteria. Despite the many advantages offered by this system, its widespread use is hindered by its unknown mechanism of action which can result in non-reproducible outcomes. In this work, we sought to investigate the mechanism by which a certain percentage of Escherichia coli cells survived when passing through the bactericidal filter paper. Through the process of elimination, the possibility that the bacterial survival probability was controlled by the initial bacterial load or the existence of resistant sub-populations of E. coli was dismissed. It was observed that increasing the thickness or the number of layers of the filter significantly decreased bacterial survival probability for the biocidal filter paper but did not affect the efficiency of the blank filter paper (no biocide). The survival probability of bacteria passing through the antibacterial filter paper appeared to depend strongly on the number of collision between each bacterium and the biocide-loaded micelles. It was thus hypothesized that during each collision a certain number of biocide molecules were directly transferred from the hydrophobic core of the micelle to the bacterial lipid bilayer membrane. Therefore, each bacterium must encounter a certain number of collisions to take up enough biocide to kill the cell and cells that do not undergo the threshold number of collisions are expected to survive. PMID:24681395

  9. Detection probabilities in fuel cycle oriented safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Canty, J.J.; Stein, G.; Avenhaus, R. )

    1987-01-01

    An intensified discussion of evaluation criteria for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards effectiveness is currently under way. Considerations basic to the establishment of such criteria are derived from the model agreement INFCIRC/153 and include threshold amounts, strategic significance, conversion times, required assurances, cost-effectiveness, and nonintrusiveness. In addition to these aspects, the extent to which fuel cycle characteristics are taken into account in safeguards implementations (Article 81c of INFCIRC/153) will be reflected in the criteria. The effectiveness of safeguards implemented under given manpower constraints is evaluated. As the significant quantity and timeliness criteria have established themselves within the safeguards community, these are taken as fixed. Detection probabilities, on the other hand, still provide a certain degree of freedom in interpretation. The problem of randomization of inspection activities across a fuel cycle, or portions thereof, is formalized as a two-person zero-sum game, the payoff function of which is the detection probability achieved by the inspectorate. It is argued, from the point of view of risk of detection, that fuel cycle-independent, minimally accepted threshold criteria for such detection probabilities cannot and should not be applied.

  10. A Quantum Probability Model of Causal Reasoning

    PubMed Central

    Trueblood, Jennifer S.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.

    2012-01-01

    People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment. PMID:22593747

  11. Augmenting Transition Probabilities for Neutral Atomic Nitrogen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Terrazas-Salines, Imelda; Park, Chul; Strawa, Anthony W.; Hartman, G. Joseph (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    The transition probability values for a number of neutral atomic nitrogen (NI) lines in the visible wavelength range are determined in order to augment those given in the National Bureau of Standards Tables. These values are determined from experimentation as well as by using the published results of other investigators. The experimental determination of the lines in the 410 to 430 nm range was made from the observation of the emission from the arc column of an arc-heated wind tunnel. The transition probability values of these NI lines are determined to an accuracy of +/- 30% by comparison of their measured intensities with those of the atomic oxygen (OI) multiplet at around 615 nm. The temperature of the emitting medium is determined both using a multiple-layer model, based on a theoretical model of the flow in the arc column, and an empirical single-layer model. The results show that the two models lead to the same values of transition probabilities for the NI lines.

  12. Scour assessment at bridges from Flag Point to Million Dollar Bridge, Copper River Highway, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brabets, T.P.

    1994-01-01

    Twelve bridges are located along the Copper River Highway from Flag Point (Mile 27) to lhe Million Dollar Bridge (Mile 48). These bridges cross all or parts of the Copper River. Channel scour at these bridges was assessed by collecting and analyzing discharge and sediment data, analyzing aerial photography for eight different years, surveying and comparing cross sections, and utilizing scour equations. Between 1968 and 1992, scour occurring at Bridge 331 has formed two distinct channels at the bridge. The channel at Bridge 1187 has remained relatively unchanged between 1968 and 1992. During this same time period, the channel at Bridge 332 appears to have gradually filled. However, during the 1992 runoff season, the channel at this bridge scoured significantly, probably because of its unstable nature. The most significant scour has occurred at Bridge 342. A high-water period in 1981 probably shifted much of the flow of the Copper River through this bridge. As a result, severe contraction scour occurred which required major repairs to the bridge. During 1991 and 1992, the approach channel to Bridge 342 has been migrating, causing scour in the left side of the channel. Bed material at the Million Dollar Bridge consists of hard unweathered boulders nested in dense gravel. Because of this type of erosion-resistant material, no significant scour has occurred at this site. Contraction scour equations overestimated the mean depth of flow at Bridge 331 by 2.6 to 5.0 ft, but were within 1.0 ft of the mean depth of flow for Bridge 1187. The local scour equations generally overestimated local scour at both Bridge 331 and Bridge 1187. The accuracy of some equations was probably affected because water velocities could not be obtained upstream from the piers.

  13. CPROB: A COMPUTATIONAL TOOL FOR CONDUCTING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conditional probability analysis measures the probability of observing one event given that another event has occurred. In an environmental context, conditional probability analysis helps assess the association between an environmental contaminant (i.e. the stressor) and the ec...

  14. 25 Million Americans Will Struggle with Vision Problems by 2050

    MedlinePlus

    ... gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_158934.html 25 Million Americans Will Struggle With Vision Problems by 2050 Aging ... News) -- As baby boomers age, the number of Americans with vision problems and blindness is expected to ...

  15. 25 Million Americans Will Struggle with Vision Problems by 2050

    MedlinePlus

    ... html 25 Million Americans Will Struggle With Vision Problems by 2050 Aging boomers will trigger a doubling ... boomers age, the number of Americans with vision problems and blindness is expected to double over the ...

  16. 6 Million Americans Drink Water Tainted with Toxic Chemicals

    MedlinePlus

    ... news/fullstory_160327.html 6 Million Americans Drink Water Tainted With Toxic Chemicals: Report Many systems contain ... unsafe levels of dangerous chemicals in their drinking water that may trigger a host of health problems, ...

  17. Monsanto Gives Washington U. $23.5 Million.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Culliton, Barbara J.

    1982-01-01

    Reviews various provisions of a five-year, $23.5-million research agreement between Washington University and the Monsanto Company. The scientific focus of this venture will be on proteins and peptides which modify cellular behavior. (SK)

  18. Social Science and the Bayesian Probability Explanation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Jie; Zhao, Lei

    2014-03-01

    C. G. Hempel, one of the logical empiricists, who builds up his probability explanation model by using the empiricist view of probability, this model encountered many difficulties in the scientific explanation in which Hempel is difficult to make a reasonable defense. Based on the bayesian probability theory, the Bayesian probability model provides an approach of a subjective probability explanation based on the subjective probability, using the subjectivist view of probability. On the one hand, this probability model establishes the epistemological status of the subject in the social science; On the other hand, it provides a feasible explanation model for the social scientific explanation, which has important methodological significance.

  19. A probable probability distribution of a series nonequilibrium states in a simple system out of equilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Haixia; Li, Ting; Xiao, Changming

    2016-05-01

    When a simple system is in its nonequilibrium state, it will shift to its equilibrium state. Obviously, in this process, there are a series of nonequilibrium states. With the assistance of Bayesian statistics and hyperensemble, a probable probability distribution of these nonequilibrium states can be determined by maximizing the hyperensemble entropy. It is known that the largest probability is the equilibrium state, and the far a nonequilibrium state is away from the equilibrium one, the smaller the probability will be, and the same conclusion can also be obtained in the multi-state space. Furthermore, if the probability stands for the relative time the corresponding nonequilibrium state can stay, then the velocity of a nonequilibrium state returning back to its equilibrium can also be determined through the reciprocal of the derivative of this probability. It tells us that the far away the state from the equilibrium is, the faster the returning velocity will be; if the system is near to its equilibrium state, the velocity will tend to be smaller and smaller, and finally tends to 0 when it gets the equilibrium state.

  20. Fourier spectroscopy with a one-million-point transformation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Connes, J.; Delouis, H.; Connes, P.; Guelachvili, G.; Maillard, J.; Michel, G.

    1972-01-01

    A new type of interferometer for use in Fourier spectroscopy has been devised at the Aime Cotton Laboratory of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Orsay, France. With this interferometer and newly developed computational techniques, interferograms comprising as many as one million samples can now be transformed. The techniques are described, and examples of spectra of thorium and holmium, derived from one million-point interferograms, are presented.

  1. Spin Glass Computations and Ruelle's Probability Cascades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arguin, Louis-Pierre

    2007-03-01

    We study the Parisi functional, appearing in the Parisi formula for the pressure of the SK model, as a functional on Ruelle's Probability Cascades (RPC). Computation techniques for the RPC formulation of the functional are developed. They are used to derive continuity and monotonicity properties of the functional retrieving a theorem of Guerra. We also detail the connection between the Aizenman-Sims-Starr variational principle and the Parisi formula. As a final application of the techniques, we rederive the Almeida-Thouless line in the spirit of Toninelli but relying on the RPC structure.

  2. Snell Envelope with Small Probability Criteria

    SciTech Connect

    Del Moral, Pierre Hu, Peng; Oudjane, Nadia

    2012-12-15

    We present a new algorithm to compute the Snell envelope in the specific case where the criteria to optimize is associated with a small probability or a rare event. This new approach combines the Stochastic Mesh approach of Broadie and Glasserman with a particle approximation scheme based on a specific change of measure designed to concentrate the computational effort in regions pointed out by the criteria. The theoretical analysis of this new algorithm provides non asymptotic convergence estimates. Finally, the numerical tests confirm the practical interest of this approach.

  3. Mapping probability of shipping sound exposure level.

    PubMed

    Gervaise, Cédric; Aulanier, Florian; Simard, Yvan; Roy, Nathalie

    2015-06-01

    Mapping vessel noise is emerging as one method of identifying areas where sound exposure due to shipping noise could have negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems. The probability distribution function (pdf) of sound exposure levels (SEL) is an important metric for identifying areas of concern. In this paper a probabilistic shipping SEL modeling method is described to obtain the pdf of SEL using the sonar equation and statistical relations linking the pdfs of ship traffic density, source levels, and transmission losses to their products and sums. PMID:26093451

  4. Calculation of radiative transition probabilities and lifetimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemke, W. T.; Verma, K. K.; Stwalley, W. C.

    1982-01-01

    Procedures for calculating bound-bound and bound-continuum (free) radiative transition probabilities and radiative lifetimes are summarized. Calculations include rotational dependence and R-dependent electronic transition moments (no Franck-Condon or R-centroid approximation). Detailed comparisons of theoretical results with experimental measurements are made for bound-bound transitions in the A-X systems of LiH and Na2. New bound-free results are presented for LiH. New bound-free results and comparisons with very recent fluorescence experiments are presented for Na2.

  5. Modulation Based on Probability Density Functions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2009-01-01

    A proposed method of modulating a sinusoidal carrier signal to convey digital information involves the use of histograms representing probability density functions (PDFs) that characterize samples of the signal waveform. The method is based partly on the observation that when a waveform is sampled (whether by analog or digital means) over a time interval at least as long as one half cycle of the waveform, the samples can be sorted by frequency of occurrence, thereby constructing a histogram representing a PDF of the waveform during that time interval.

  6. Development of a methodology for probable maximum precipitation estimation over the American River watershed using the WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Elcin

    physically possible upper limits of precipitation due to climate change. The simulation results indicate that the meridional shift in atmospheric conditions is the optimum method to determine maximum precipitation in consideration of cost and efficiency. Finally, exceedance probability analyses of the model results of 42 historical extreme precipitation events demonstrate that the 72-hr basin averaged probable maximum precipitation is 21.72 inches for the exceedance probability of 0.5 percent. On the other hand, the current operational PMP estimation for the American River Watershed is 28.57 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 59 and a previous PMP value was 31.48 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 36. According to the exceedance probability analyses of this proposed method, the exceedance probabilities of these two estimations correspond to 0.036 percent and 0.011 percent, respectively.

  7. The Karskiy craters are the probable records of catastrophe at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kolesnikov, E. M.; Nazarov, M. A.; Badjukov, D. D.; Shukolyukov, Yu. A.

    1988-01-01

    In order to corroborate the hypothesis of Alvarez and others about the connection of mass mortality and meteorite or cometary impact at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, it is necessary to find a meteorite crater which was formed at the same time. Masaitiss suggested that the Karskiy craters (USSR) are suitable, but previous K/Ar data from other laboratories are very different (from 47 to 82 million years). Impact glasses were gathered from the Karskiy and Ust-Karskiy craters K/Ar age analyses were performed. The glasses cooled very rapidly and had the youngest model ages from 65.8 to 67.6 million years. The slower cooling crypto-crystalline aggregates had more ancient model ages, from 70.5 to 73.9 my as had tagamite because they captured excess argon during crystallization. Least squares analysis showed that with probability of 99 percent the findings on crypto-crystalline aggregates, tagamite and quartz glasses from the Karskiy and Ust-Karskiy craters lie on an isochron which has an age of 65.8 + or - 1.1 million years and a content of excess argon. For the two glasses with identical composition which have different quantities of secondary non-potassium minerals, an independent method determined the content of excess argon. Taking into account these data a more exact slope of the first isochron of 66.4 + or - 1.0 million years was observed and the second glass isochron with age 66.5 + or - 1.1 million years was constructed.

  8. Properties of atoms in molecules: Transition probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bader, R. F. W.; Bayles, D.; Heard, G. L.

    2000-06-01

    The transition probability for electric dipole transitions is a measurable property of a system and is therefore, partitionable into atomic contributions using the physics of a proper open system. The derivation of the dressed property density, whose averaging over an atomic basin yields the atomic contribution to a given oscillator strength, is achieved through the development of perturbation theory for an open system. A dressed density describes the local contribution resulting from the interaction of a single electron at some position r, as determined by the relevant observable, averaged over the motions of all of the remaining particles in the system. In the present work, the transition probability density expressed in terms of the relevant transition density, yields a local measure of the associated oscillator strength resulting from the interaction of the entire molecule with a radiation field. The definition of the atomic contributions to the oscillator strength enables one to determine the extent to which a given electronic or vibrational transition is spatially localized to a given atom or functional group. The concepts introduced in this article are applied to the Rydberg-type transitions observed in the electronic excitation of a nonbonding electron in formaldehyde and ammonia. The atomic partitioning of the molecular density distribution and of the molecular properties by surfaces of zero flux in the gradient vector field of the electron density, the boundary condition defining the physics of a proper open system, is found to apply to the density distributions of the excited, Rydberg states.

  9. Classical probability model for Bell inequality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2014-04-01

    We show that by taking into account randomness of realization of experimental contexts it is possible to construct common Kolmogorov space for data collected for these contexts, although they can be incompatible. We call such a construction "Kolmogorovization" of contextuality. This construction of common probability space is applied to Bell's inequality. It is well known that its violation is a consequence of collecting statistical data in a few incompatible experiments. In experiments performed in quantum optics contexts are determined by selections of pairs of angles (θi,θ'j) fixing orientations of polarization beam splitters. Opposite to the common opinion, we show that statistical data corresponding to measurements of polarizations of photons in the singlet state, e.g., in the form of correlations, can be described in the classical probabilistic framework. The crucial point is that in constructing the common probability space one has to take into account not only randomness of the source (as Bell did), but also randomness of context-realizations (in particular, realizations of pairs of angles (θi, θ'j)). One may (but need not) say that randomness of "free will" has to be accounted for.

  10. Estimating flood exceedance probabilities in estuarine regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Flood events in estuarine regions can arise from the interaction of extreme rainfall and storm surge. Determining flood level exceedance probabilities in these regions is complicated by the dependence of these processes for extreme events. A comprehensive study of tide and rainfall gauges along the Australian coastline was conducted to determine the dependence of these extremes using a bivariate logistic threshold-excess model. The dependence strength is shown to vary as a function of distance over many hundreds of kilometres indicating that the dependence arises due to synoptic scale meteorological forcings. It is also shown to vary as a function of storm burst duration, time lag between the extreme rainfall and the storm surge event. The dependence estimates are then used with a bivariate design variable method to determine flood risk in estuarine regions for a number of case studies. Aspects of the method demonstrated in the case studies include, the resolution and range of the hydraulic response table, fitting of probability distributions, computational efficiency, uncertainty, potential variation in marginal distributions due to climate change, and application to two dimensional output from hydraulic models. Case studies are located on the Swan River (Western Australia), Nambucca River and Hawkesbury Nepean River (New South Wales).

  11. Measures, Probability and Holography in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Daniel

    This dissertation compiles four research projects on predicting values for cosmological parameters and models of the universe on the broadest scale. The first examines the Causal Entropic Principle (CEP) in inhomogeneous cosmologies. The CEP aims to predict the unexpectedly small value of the cosmological constant Lambda using a weighting by entropy increase on causal diamonds. The original work assumed a purely isotropic and homogeneous cosmology. But even the level of inhomogeneity observed in our universe forces reconsideration of certain arguments about entropy production. In particular, we must consider an ensemble of causal diamonds associated with each background cosmology and we can no longer immediately discard entropy production in the far future of the universe. Depending on our choices for a probability measure and our treatment of black hole evaporation, the prediction for Lambda may be left intact or dramatically altered. The second related project extends the CEP to universes with curvature. We have found that curvature values larger than rho k = 40rhom are disfavored by more than $99.99% and a peak value at rhoLambda = 7.9 x 10-123 and rhok =4.3rho m for open universes. For universes that allow only positive curvature or both positive and negative curvature, we find a correlation between curvature and dark energy that leads to an extended region of preferred values. Our universe is found to be disfavored to an extent depending the priors on curvature. We also provide a comparison to previous anthropic constraints on open universes and discuss future directions for this work. The third project examines how cosmologists should formulate basic questions of probability. We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We

  12. Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

    PubMed Central

    Bryant, H E; Brasher, P M

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman's lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more. PMID:8287343

  13. Estimated probability of arsenic in groundwater from bedrock aquifers in New Hampshire, 2011

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ayotte, Joseph D.; Cahillane, Matthew; Hayes, Laura; Robinson, Keith W.

    2012-01-01

    Probabilities of arsenic occurrence in groundwater from bedrock aquifers at concentrations of 1, 5, and 10 micrograms per liter (µg/L) were estimated during 2011 using multivariate logistic regression. These estimates were developed for use by the New Hampshire Environmental Public Health Tracking Program. About 39 percent of New Hampshire bedrock groundwater was identified as having at least a 50 percent chance of containing an arsenic concentration greater than or equal to 1 µg/L. This compares to about 7 percent of New Hampshire bedrock groundwater having at least a 50 percent chance of containing an arsenic concentration equaling or exceeding 5 µg/L and about 5 percent of the State having at least a 50 percent chance for its bedrock groundwater to contain concentrations at or above 10 µg/L. The southeastern counties of Merrimack, Strafford, Hillsborough, and Rockingham have the greatest potential for having arsenic concentrations above 5 and 10 µg/L in bedrock groundwater. Significant predictors of arsenic in groundwater from bedrock aquifers for all three thresholds analyzed included geologic, geochemical, land use, hydrologic, topographic, and demographic factors. Among the three thresholds evaluated, there were some differences in explanatory variables, but many variables were the same. More than 250 individual predictor variables were assembled for this study and tested as potential predictor variables for the models. More than 1,700 individual measurements of arsenic concentration from a combination of public and private water-supply wells served as the dependent (or predicted) variable in the models. The statewide maps generated by the probability models are not designed to predict arsenic concentration in any single well, but they are expected to provide useful information in areas of the State that currently contain little to no data on arsenic concentration. They also may aid in resource decision making, in determining potential risk for private

  14. Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vallejo, J. J.; Hejduk, M. D.; Stamey, J. D.

    2015-01-01

    A simple model is proposed to predict the behavior of Probabilities of Collision (P(sub c)) for conjunction events. The model attempts to predict the location and magnitude of the peak P(sub c) value for an event by assuming the progression of P(sub c) values can be modeled to first order by a downward-opening parabola. To incorporate prior information from a large database of past conjunctions, the Bayes paradigm is utilized; and the operating characteristics of the model are established through a large simulation study. Though the model is simple, it performs well in predicting the temporal location of the peak (P(sub c)) and thus shows promise as a decision aid in operational conjunction assessment risk analysis.

  15. Quantum probabilities for inflation from holography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartle, James B.; Hawking, S. W.; Hertog, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of the universe is determined by its quantum state. The wave function of the universe obeys the constraints of general relativity and in particular the Wheeler-DeWitt equation (WDWE). For non-zero Λ, we show that solutions of the WDWE at large volume have two domains in which geometries and fields are asymptotically real. In one the histories are Euclidean asymptotically anti-de Sitter, in the other they are Lorentzian asymptotically classical de Sitter. Further, the universal complex semiclassical asymptotic structure of solutions of the WDWE implies that the leading order in hbar quantum probabilities for classical, asymptotically de Sitter histories can be obtained from the action of asymptotically anti-de Sitter configurations. This leads to a promising, universal connection between quantum cosmology and holography.

  16. Audio feature extraction using probability distribution function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suhaib, A.; Wan, Khairunizam; Aziz, Azri A.; Hazry, D.; Razlan, Zuradzman M.; Shahriman A., B.

    2015-05-01

    Voice recognition has been one of the popular applications in robotic field. It is also known to be recently used for biometric and multimedia information retrieval system. This technology is attained from successive research on audio feature extraction analysis. Probability Distribution Function (PDF) is a statistical method which is usually used as one of the processes in complex feature extraction methods such as GMM and PCA. In this paper, a new method for audio feature extraction is proposed which is by using only PDF as a feature extraction method itself for speech analysis purpose. Certain pre-processing techniques are performed in prior to the proposed feature extraction method. Subsequently, the PDF result values for each frame of sampled voice signals obtained from certain numbers of individuals are plotted. From the experimental results obtained, it can be seen visually from the plotted data that each individuals' voice has comparable PDF values and shapes.

  17. Probability of Brownian motion hitting an obstacle

    SciTech Connect

    Knessl, C.; Keller, J.B.

    2000-02-01

    The probability p(x) that Brownian motion with drift, starting at x, hits an obstacle is analyzed. The obstacle {Omega} is a compact subset of R{sup n}. It is shown that p(x) is expressible in terms of the field U(x) scattered by {Omega} when it is hit by plane wave. Therefore results for U(x), and methods for finding U(x) can be used to determine p(x). The authors illustrate this by obtaining exact and asymptotic results for p(x) when {Omega} is a slit in R{sup 2}, and asymptotic results when {Omega} is a disc in R{sup 3}.

  18. Probability density function learning by unsupervised neurons.

    PubMed

    Fiori, S

    2001-10-01

    In a recent work, we introduced the concept of pseudo-polynomial adaptive activation function neuron (FAN) and presented an unsupervised information-theoretic learning theory for such structure. The learning model is based on entropy optimization and provides a way of learning probability distributions from incomplete data. The aim of the present paper is to illustrate some theoretical features of the FAN neuron, to extend its learning theory to asymmetrical density function approximation, and to provide an analytical and numerical comparison with other known density function estimation methods, with special emphasis to the universal approximation ability. The paper also provides a survey of PDF learning from incomplete data, as well as results of several experiments performed on real-world problems and signals. PMID:11709808

  19. Carrier Modulation Via Waveform Probability Density Function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2004-01-01

    Beyond the classic modes of carrier modulation by varying amplitude (AM), phase (PM), or frequency (FM), we extend the modulation domain of an analog carrier signal to include a class of general modulations which are distinguished by their probability density function histogram. Separate waveform states are easily created by varying the pdf of the transmitted waveform. Individual waveform states are assignable as proxies for digital ONEs or ZEROs. At the receiver, these states are easily detected by accumulating sampled waveform statistics and performing periodic pattern matching, correlation, or statistical filtering. No fundamental natural laws are broken in the detection process. We show how a typical modulation scheme would work in the digital domain and suggest how to build an analog version. We propose that clever variations of the modulating waveform (and thus the histogram) can provide simple steganographic encoding.

  20. Carrier Modulation Via Waveform Probability Density Function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2006-01-01

    Beyond the classic modes of carrier modulation by varying amplitude (AM), phase (PM), or frequency (FM), we extend the modulation domain of an analog carrier signal to include a class of general modulations which are distinguished by their probability density function histogram. Separate waveform states are easily created by varying the pdf of the transmitted waveform. Individual waveform states are assignable as proxies for digital one's or zero's. At the receiver, these states are easily detected by accumulating sampled waveform statistics and performing periodic pattern matching, correlation, or statistical filtering. No fundamental physical laws are broken in the detection process. We show how a typical modulation scheme would work in the digital domain and suggest how to build an analog version. We propose that clever variations of the modulating waveform (and thus the histogram) can provide simple steganographic encoding.

  1. 5426 Sharp: A Probable Hungaria Binary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warner, Brian D.; Benishek, Vladimir; Ferrero, Andrea

    2015-07-01

    Initial CCD photometry observations of the Hungaria asteroid 5426 Sharp in 2014 December and 2015 January at the Center of Solar System Studies-Palmer Divide Station in Landers, CA, showed attenuations from the general lightcurve, indicating the possibility of the asteroid being a binary system. The secondary period was almost exactly an Earth day, prompting a collaboration to be formed with observers in Europe, which eventually allowed establishing two periods: P1 = 4.5609 ± 0.0003 h, A1 = 0.18 ± 0.01 mag and P2 = 24.22 ± 0.02 h, A2 = 0.08 ± 0.01 mag. No mutual events, i.e., occultations and/or eclipses, were seen, therefore the asteroid is considered a probable and not confirmed binary

  2. Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool Phase II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winnie

    2007-01-01

    This presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equations showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

  3. Quantum probabilities for inflation from holography

    SciTech Connect

    Hartle, James B.; Hawking, S.W.; Hertog, Thomas E-mail: S.W.Hawking@damtp.cam.ac.uk

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of the universe is determined by its quantum state. The wave function of the universe obeys the constraints of general relativity and in particular the Wheeler-DeWitt equation (WDWE). For non-zero Λ, we show that solutions of the WDWE at large volume have two domains in which geometries and fields are asymptotically real. In one the histories are Euclidean asymptotically anti-de Sitter, in the other they are Lorentzian asymptotically classical de Sitter. Further, the universal complex semiclassical asymptotic structure of solutions of the WDWE implies that the leading order in h-bar quantum probabilities for classical, asymptotically de Sitter histories can be obtained from the action of asymptotically anti-de Sitter configurations. This leads to a promising, universal connection between quantum cosmology and holography.

  4. On the probability of dinosaur fleas.

    PubMed

    Dittmar, Katharina; Zhu, Qiyun; Hastriter, Michael W; Whiting, Michael F

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a set of publications described flea fossils from Jurassic and Early Cretaceous geological strata in northeastern China, which were suggested to have parasitized feathered dinosaurs, pterosaurs, and early birds or mammals. In support of these fossils being fleas, a recent publication in BMC Evolutionary Biology described the extended abdomen of a female fossil specimen as due to blood feeding.We here comment on these findings, and conclude that the current interpretation of the evolutionary trajectory and ecology of these putative dinosaur fleas is based on appeal to probability, rather than evidence. Hence, their taxonomic positioning as fleas, or stem fleas, as well as their ecological classification as ectoparasites and blood feeders is not supported by currently available data. PMID:26754250

  5. Model estimates hurricane wind speed probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mumane, Richard J.; Barton, Chris; Collins, Eric; Donnelly, Jeffrey; Eisner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Ginis, Isaac; Howard, Susan; Landsea, Chris; Liu, Kam-biu; Malmquist, David; McKay, Megan; Michaels, Anthony; Nelson, Norm; O Brien, James; Scott, David; Webb, Thompson, III

    In the United States, intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with winds greater than 50 m s -1 have caused more damage than any other natural disaster [Pielke and Pielke, 1997]. Accurate estimates of wind speed exceedance probabilities (WSEP) due to intense hurricanes are therefore of great interest to (re)insurers, emergency planners, government officials, and populations in vulnerable coastal areas.The historical record of U.S. hurricane landfall is relatively complete only from about 1900, and most model estimates of WSEP are derived from this record. During the 1899-1998 period, only two category-5 and 16 category-4 hurricanes made landfall in the United States. The historical record therefore provides only a limited sample of the most intense hurricanes.

  6. Homonymous Hemianopsia Associated with Probable Alzheimer's Disease.

    PubMed

    Ishiwata, Akiko; Kimura, Kazumi

    2016-01-01

    Posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) is a rare neurodegenerative disorder that has cerebral atrophy in the parietal, occipital, or occipitotemporal cortices and is characterized by visuospatial and visuoperceptual impairments. The most cases are pathologically compatible with Alzheimer's disease (AD). We describe a case of PCA in which a combination of imaging methods, in conjunction with symptoms and neurological and neuropsychological examinations, led to its being diagnosed and to AD being identified as its probable cause. Treatment with donepezil for 6 months mildly improved alexia symptoms, but other symptoms remained unchanged. A 59-year-old Japanese woman with progressive alexia, visual deficit, and mild memory loss was referred to our neurologic clinic for the evaluation of right homonymous hemianopsia. Our neurological examination showed alexia, constructional apraxia, mild disorientation, short-term memory loss, and right homonymous hemianopsia. These findings resulted in a score of 23 (of 30) points on the Mini-Mental State Examination. Occipital atrophy was identified, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showing left-side dominance. The MRI data were quantified with voxel-based morphometry, and PCA was diagnosed on the basis of these findings. Single photon emission computed tomography with (123)I-N-isopropyl-p-iodoamphetamine showed hypoperfusion in the corresponding voxel-based morphometry occipital lobes. Additionally, the finding of hypoperfusion in the posterior associate cortex, posterior cingulate gyrus, and precuneus was consistent with AD. Therefore, the PCA was considered to be a result of AD. We considered Lewy body dementia as a differential diagnosis because of the presence of hypoperfusion in the occipital lobes. However, the patient did not meet the criteria for Lewy body dementia during the course of the disease. We therefore consider including PCA in the differential diagnoses to be important for patients with visual deficit, cognitive

  7. Repetition probability effects for inverted faces.

    PubMed

    Grotheer, Mareike; Hermann, Petra; Vidnyánszky, Zoltán; Kovács, Gyula

    2014-11-15

    It has been shown, that the repetition related reduction of the blood-oxygen level dependent (BOLD) signal is modulated by the probability of repetitions (P(rep)) for faces (Summerfield et al., 2008), providing support for the predictive coding (PC) model of visual perception (Rao and Ballard, 1999). However, the stage of face processing where repetition suppression (RS) is modulated by P(rep) is still unclear. Face inversion is known to interrupt higher level configural/holistic face processing steps and if modulation of RS by P(rep) takes place at these stages of face processing, P(rep) effects are expected to be reduced for inverted when compared to upright faces. Therefore, here we aimed at investigating whether P(rep) effects on RS observed for face stimuli originate at the higher-level configural/holistic stages of face processing by comparing these effects for upright and inverted faces. Similarly to previous studies, we manipulated P(rep) for pairs of stimuli in individual blocks of fMRI recordings. This manipulation significantly influenced repetition suppression in the posterior FFA, the OFA and the LO, independently of stimulus orientation. Our results thus reveal that RS in the ventral visual stream is modulated by P(rep) even in the case of face inversion and hence strongly compromised configural/holistic face processing. An additional whole-brain analysis could not identify any areas where the modulatory effect of probability was orientation specific either. These findings imply that P(rep) effects on RS might originate from the earlier stages of face processing. PMID:25123974

  8. Direct Updating of an RNA Base-Pairing Probability Matrix with Marginal Probability Constraints

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Abstract A base-pairing probability matrix (BPPM) stores the probabilities for every possible base pair in an RNA sequence and has been used in many algorithms in RNA informatics (e.g., RNA secondary structure prediction and motif search). In this study, we propose a novel algorithm to perform iterative updates of a given BPPM, satisfying marginal probability constraints that are (approximately) given by recently developed biochemical experiments, such as SHAPE, PAR, and FragSeq. The method is easily implemented and is applicable to common models for RNA secondary structures, such as energy-based or machine-learning–based models. In this article, we focus mainly on the details of the algorithms, although preliminary computational experiments will also be presented. PMID:23210474

  9. Segmentation and automated measurement of chronic wound images: probability map approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmad Fauzi, Mohammad Faizal; Khansa, Ibrahim; Catignani, Karen; Gordillo, Gayle; Sen, Chandan K.; Gurcan, Metin N.

    2014-03-01

    estimated 6.5 million patients in the United States are affected by chronic wounds, with more than 25 billion US dollars and countless hours spent annually for all aspects of chronic wound care. There is need to develop software tools to analyze wound images that characterize wound tissue composition, measure their size, and monitor changes over time. This process, when done manually, is time-consuming and subject to intra- and inter-reader variability. In this paper, we propose a method that can characterize chronic wounds containing granulation, slough and eschar tissues. First, we generate a Red-Yellow-Black-White (RYKW) probability map, which then guides the region growing segmentation process. The red, yellow and black probability maps are designed to handle the granulation, slough and eschar tissues, respectively found in wound tissues, while the white probability map is designed to detect the white label card for measurement calibration purpose. The innovative aspects of this work include: 1) Definition of a wound characteristics specific probability map for segmentation, 2) Computationally efficient regions growing on 4D map; 3) Auto-calibration of measurements with the content of the image. The method was applied on 30 wound images provided by the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, with the ground truth independently generated by the consensus of two clinicians. While the inter-reader agreement between the readers is 85.5%, the computer achieves an accuracy of 80%.

  10. Hitchhikers on trade routes: A phenology model estimates the probabilities of gypsy moth introduction and establishment.

    PubMed

    Gray, David R

    2010-12-01

    As global trade increases so too does the probability of introduction of alien species to new locations. Estimating the probability of an alien species introduction and establishment following introduction is a necessary step in risk estimation (probability of an event times the consequences, in the currency of choice, of the event should it occur); risk estimation is a valuable tool for reducing the risk of biological invasion with limited resources. The Asian gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), is a pest species whose consequence of introduction and establishment in North America and New Zealand warrants over US$2 million per year in surveillance expenditure. This work describes the development of a two-dimensional phenology model (GLS-2d) that simulates insect development from source to destination and estimates: (1) the probability of introduction from the proportion of the source population that would achieve the next developmental stage at the destination and (2) the probability of establishment from the proportion of the introduced population that survives until a stable life cycle is reached at the destination. The effect of shipping schedule on the probabilities of introduction and establishment was examined by varying the departure date from 1 January to 25 December by weekly increments. The effect of port efficiency was examined by varying the length of time that invasion vectors (shipping containers and ship) were available for infection. The application of GLS-2d is demonstrated using three common marine trade routes (to Auckland, New Zealand, from Kobe, Japan, and to Vancouver, Canada, from Kobe and from Vladivostok, Russia). PMID:21265459

  11. Discovery of some 400 million year-old sensory structures in the compound eyes of trilobites.

    PubMed

    Schoenemann, Brigitte; Clarkson, Euan N K

    2013-01-01

    Fossilised arthropod compound eyes have frequently been described. Among the oldest known are those from the lower Cambrian of the Chengjiang Lagerstätte (China, c 525 Ma). All these compound eyes, though often excellently preserved, however, represent just the outer shells, because soft tissues, or even individual cells, usually do not fossilise. Using modern techniques, including μct-scanning and synchrotron radiation analysis we present the discovery of the sensory cell system of compound eyes, belonging to trilobites around 400 million years old, which allows their description and analysis. They are interpreted as forming part of an apposition-like ommatidium, which is a basic functional type of compound eye present in arthropods of today. Considered in greater detail, it is similar to the compound eye of the horseshoe crab Limulus, generally regarded as a 'living fossil', which probably retained this ancient basal system successfully until today. PMID:23492459

  12. Length of the current interglacial period and interglacial intervals of the last million years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dergachev, V. A.

    2015-12-01

    It was ascertained that the long-term cyclical oscillations of the global climate of the Earth between glacial and interglacial states for the last million years respond to cyclical oscillations of the orbital parameters of the Earth. Cold glacial states with a period of approximately 100 ka give way to shorter intervals of warming of around 10-12 ka long. The current interglacial period—the so-called Holocene—started on Earth roughly 10 ka ago. The length of the current interglacial period and the causes of the climate change over the last approximately 50 years arouse sharp debates connected with the growing anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. To estimate the length of the current interglacial period, interglacial intervals near ~400 (MIS-11) and ~800 (MIS-19) ka are analyzed as its probable analogs.

  13. Discovery of some 400 million year-old sensory structures in the compound eyes of trilobites

    PubMed Central

    Schoenemann, Brigitte; Clarkson, Euan N. K.

    2013-01-01

    Fossilised arthropod compound eyes have frequently been described. Among the oldest known are those from the lower Cambrian of the Chengjiang Lagerstätte (China, c 525 Ma). All these compound eyes, though often excellently preserved, however, represent just the outer shells, because soft tissues, or even individual cells, usually do not fossilise. Using modern techniques, including μct-scanning and synchrotron radiation analysis we present the discovery of the sensory cell system of compound eyes, belonging to trilobites around 400 million years old, which allows their description and analysis. They are interpreted as forming part of an apposition-like ommatidium, which is a basic functional type of compound eye present in arthropods of today. Considered in greater detail, it is similar to the compound eye of the horseshoe crab Limulus, generally regarded as a ‘living fossil’, which probably retained this ancient basal system successfully until today. PMID:23492459

  14. Consideration of probability of bacterial growth for Jovian planets and their satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, D. M.; Berkman, R. M.; Divine, N.

    1975-01-01

    Environmental parameters affecting growth of bacteria (e.g., moisture, temperature, pH, and chemical composition) were compared with current atmospheric models for Jupiter and Saturn, and with the available physical data for their satellites. Different zones of relative probability of growth were identified for Jupiter and Saturn, with the highest in pressure regions of 1-10 million N/sq m (10 to 100 atmospheres) and 3-30 million N/sq m (30 to 300 atmospheres), respectively. Of the more than two dozen satellites, only the largest (Io, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, and Titan) were found to be interesting biologically. Titan's atmosphere may produce a substantial greenhouse effect providing increased surface temperatures. Models predicting a dense atmosphere are compatible with microbial growth for a range of pressures at Titan's surface. For Titan's surface the probability of growth would be enhanced if (1) the surface is entirely or partially liquid (water), (2) volcanism (in an ice-water-steam system) is present, or (3) access to internal heat sources is significant.

  15. Theoretical transition probabilities for the OH Meinel system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Langhoff, S. R.; Werner, H.-J.; Rosmus, P.

    1986-01-01

    An electric dipole moment function (EDMF) for the X 2Pi ground state of OH, based on the complete active-space self-consistent field plus a multireference singles-plus-double excitation configuration-interaction procedure (using an extended Slater basis) is reported. Two theoretical EDMFS are considered: the MCSCF (7)-SCEP EDMF of Werner et al., (1983) and a previously unpublished EDMF based on the MCSCF multireference CI(SD) procedure using a large Slater basis. The theoretical treatment follows that of Mies (1974), except that the Hill and Van Vleck (1928) approximation to intermediate coupling is used. This approximation is shown to be accurate to better than 5 percent for the six principal branches of the OH Meinel system.

  16. Onset of Antarctic Circumpolar Current 30 million years ago as Tasmanian Gateway aligned with westerlies.

    PubMed

    Scher, Howie D; Whittaker, Joanne M; Williams, Simon E; Latimer, Jennifer C; Kordesch, Wendy E C; Delaney, Margaret L

    2015-07-30

    Earth's mightiest ocean current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), regulates the exchange of heat and carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere, and influences vertical ocean structure, deep-water production and the global distribution of nutrients and chemical tracers. The eastward-flowing ACC occupies a unique circumglobal pathway in the Southern Ocean that was enabled by the tectonic opening of key oceanic gateways during the break-up of Gondwana (for example, by the opening of the Tasmanian Gateway, which connects the Indian and Pacific oceans). Although the ACC is a key component of Earth's present and past climate system, the timing of the appearance of diagnostic features of the ACC (for example, low zonal gradients in water-mass tracer fields) is poorly known and represents a fundamental gap in our understanding of Earth history. Here we show, using geophysically determined positions of continent-ocean boundaries, that the deep Tasmanian Gateway opened 33.5 ± 1.5 million years ago (the errors indicate uncertainty in the boundary positions). Following this opening, sediments from Indian and Pacific cores recorded Pacific-type neodymium isotope ratios, revealing deep westward flow equivalent to the present-day Antarctic Slope Current. We observe onset of the ACC at around 30 million years ago, when Southern Ocean neodymium isotopes record a permanent shift to modern Indian-Atlantic ratios. Our reconstructions of ocean circulation show that massive reorganization and homogenization of Southern Ocean water masses coincided with migration of the northern margin of the Tasmanian Gateway into the mid-latitude westerly wind band, which we reconstruct at 64° S, near to the northern margin. Onset of the ACC about 30 million years ago coincided with major changes in global ocean circulation and probably contributed to the lower atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that appear after this time. PMID:26223626

  17. A magnified young galaxy from about 500 million years after the Big Bang.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Wei; Postman, Marc; Zitrin, Adi; Moustakas, John; Shu, Xinwen; Jouvel, Stephanie; Høst, Ole; Molino, Alberto; Bradley, Larry; Coe, Dan; Moustakas, Leonidas A; Carrasco, Mauricio; Ford, Holland; Benítez, Narciso; Lauer, Tod R; Seitz, Stella; Bouwens, Rychard; Koekemoer, Anton; Medezinski, Elinor; Bartelmann, Matthias; Broadhurst, Tom; Donahue, Megan; Grillo, Claudio; Infante, Leopoldo; Jha, Saurabh W; Kelson, Daniel D; Lahav, Ofer; Lemze, Doron; Melchior, Peter; Meneghetti, Massimo; Merten, Julian; Nonino, Mario; Ogaz, Sara; Rosati, Piero; Umetsu, Keiichi; van der Wel, Arjen

    2012-09-20

    Re-ionization of the intergalactic medium occurred in the early Universe at redshift z ≈ 6-11, following the formation of the first generation of stars. Those young galaxies (where the bulk of stars formed) at a cosmic age of less than about 500 million years (z ≲ 10) remain largely unexplored because they are at or beyond the sensitivity limits of existing large telescopes. Understanding the properties of these galaxies is critical to identifying the source of the radiation that re-ionized the intergalactic medium. Gravitational lensing by galaxy clusters allows the detection of high-redshift galaxies fainter than what otherwise could be found in the deepest images of the sky. Here we report multiband observations of the cluster MACS J1149+2223 that have revealed (with high probability) a gravitationally magnified galaxy from the early Universe, at a redshift of z = 9.6 ± 0.2 (that is, a cosmic age of 490 ± 15 million years, or 3.6 per cent of the age of the Universe). We estimate that it formed less than 200 million years after the Big Bang (at the 95 per cent confidence level), implying a formation redshift of ≲14. Given the small sky area that our observations cover, faint galaxies seem to be abundant at such a young cosmic age, suggesting that they may be the dominant source for the early re-ionization of the intergalactic medium. PMID:22996554

  18. Onset of Antarctic Circumpolar Current 30 million years ago as Tasmanian Gateway aligned with westerlies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scher, Howie D.; Whittaker, Joanne M.; Williams, Simon E.; Latimer, Jennifer C.; Kordesch, Wendy E. C.; Delaney, Margaret L.

    2015-07-01

    Earth's mightiest ocean current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), regulates the exchange of heat and carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere, and influences vertical ocean structure, deep-water production and the global distribution of nutrients and chemical tracers. The eastward-flowing ACC occupies a unique circumglobal pathway in the Southern Ocean that was enabled by the tectonic opening of key oceanic gateways during the break-up of Gondwana (for example, by the opening of the Tasmanian Gateway, which connects the Indian and Pacific oceans). Although the ACC is a key component of Earth's present and past climate system, the timing of the appearance of diagnostic features of the ACC (for example, low zonal gradients in water-mass tracer fields) is poorly known and represents a fundamental gap in our understanding of Earth history. Here we show, using geophysically determined positions of continent-ocean boundaries, that the deep Tasmanian Gateway opened 33.5 +/- 1.5 million years ago (the errors indicate uncertainty in the boundary positions). Following this opening, sediments from Indian and Pacific cores recorded Pacific-type neodymium isotope ratios, revealing deep westward flow equivalent to the present-day Antarctic Slope Current. We observe onset of the ACC at around 30 million years ago, when Southern Ocean neodymium isotopes record a permanent shift to modern Indian-Atlantic ratios. Our reconstructions of ocean circulation show that massive reorganization and homogenization of Southern Ocean water masses coincided with migration of the northern margin of the Tasmanian Gateway into the mid-latitude westerly wind band, which we reconstruct at 64° S, near to the northern margin. Onset of the ACC about 30 million years ago coincided with major changes in global ocean circulation and probably contributed to the lower atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that appear after this time.

  19. Isolation of a 250 million-year-old halotolerant bacterium from a primary salt crystal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vreeland, Russell H.; Rosenzweig, William D.; Powers, Dennis W.

    2000-10-01

    Bacteria have been found associated with a variety of ancient samples, however few studies are generally accepted due to questions about sample quality and contamination. When Cano and Borucki isolated a strain of Bacillus sphaericus from an extinct bee trapped in 25-30 million-year-old amber, careful sample selection and stringent sterilization techniques were the keys to acceptance. Here we report the isolation and growth of a previously unrecognized spore-forming bacterium (Bacillus species, designated 2-9-3) from a brine inclusion within a 250million-year-old salt crystal from the Permian Salado Formation. Complete gene sequences of the 16S ribosomal DNA show that the organism is part of the lineage of Bacillus marismortui and Virgibacillus pantothenticus. Delicate crystal structures and sedimentary features indicate the salt has not recrystallized since formation. Samples were rejected if brine inclusions showed physical signs of possible contamination. Surfaces of salt crystal samples were sterilized with strong alkali and acid before extracting brines from inclusions. Sterilization procedures reduce the probability of contamination to less than 1 in 10 9.

  20. Earliest Porotic Hyperostosis on a 1.5-Million-Year-Old Hominin, Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    Domínguez-Rodrigo, Manuel; Pickering, Travis Rayne; Diez-Martín, Fernando; Mabulla, Audax; Musiba, Charles; Trancho, Gonzalo; Baquedano, Enrique; Bunn, Henry T.; Barboni, Doris; Santonja, Manuel; Uribelarrea, David; Ashley, Gail M.; Martínez-Ávila, María del Sol; Barba, Rebeca; Gidna, Agness; Yravedra, José; Arriaza, Carmen

    2012-01-01

    Meat-eating was an important factor affecting early hominin brain expansion, social organization and geographic movement. Stone tool butchery marks on ungulate fossils in several African archaeological assemblages demonstrate a significant level of carnivory by Pleistocene hominins, but the discovery at Olduvai Gorge of a child's pathological cranial fragments indicates that some hominins probably experienced scarcity of animal foods during various stages of their life histories. The child's parietal fragments, excavated from 1.5-million-year-old sediments, show porotic hyperostosis, a pathology associated with anemia. Nutritional deficiencies, including anemia, are most common at weaning, when children lose passive immunity received through their mothers' milk. Our results suggest, alternatively, that (1) the developmentally disruptive potential of weaning reached far beyond sedentary Holocene food-producing societies and into the early Pleistocene, or that (2) a hominin mother's meat-deficient diet negatively altered the nutritional content of her breast milk to the extent that her nursing child ultimately died from malnourishment. Either way, this discovery highlights that by at least 1.5 million years ago early human physiology was already adapted to a diet that included the regular consumption of meat. PMID:23056303

  1. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    SciTech Connect

    Helton, J.C.

    1996-03-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

  2. Correlation between the clinical pretest probability score and the lung ventilation and perfusion scan probability

    PubMed Central

    Bhoobalan, Shanmugasundaram; Chakravartty, Riddhika; Dolbear, Gill; Al-Janabi, Mazin

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Aim of the study was to determine the accuracy of the clinical pretest probability (PTP) score and its association with lung ventilation and perfusion (VQ) scan. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis of 510 patients who had a lung VQ scan between 2008 and 2010 were included in the study. Out of 510 studies, the number of normal, low, and high probability VQ scans were 155 (30%), 289 (57%), and 55 (11%), respectively. Results: A total of 103 patients underwent computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) scan in which 21 (20%) had a positive scan, 81 (79%) had a negative scan and one (1%) had an equivocal result. The rate of PE in the normal, low-probability, and high-probability scan categories were: 2 (9.5%), 10 (47.5%), and 9 (43%) respectively. A very low correlation (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.20) between the clinical PTP score and lung VQ scan. The area under the curve (AUC) of the clinical PTP score was 52% when compared with the CTPA results. However, the accuracy of lung VQ scan was better (AUC = 74%) when compared with CTPA scan. Conclusion: The clinical PTP score is unreliable on its own; however, it may still aid in the interpretation of lung VQ scan. The accuracy of the lung VQ scan was better in the assessment of underlying pulmonary embolism (PE). PMID:24379532

  3. Woodwaste saves Louisiana-Pacific $164 million a year

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-11-01

    Louisiana Pacific is reported to be producing 74% of its total energy requirements from woodwaste. The company is saving the equivalent of more than five million barrels of oil a year with its waste conversion systems using bark, sawdust and sanderdust. The new generating facilities, scheduled to go online next year, will save an additional half-million barrels of oil a year. The company is already looking at new ways to further reduce its dependence on nonrenewable energy sources. One promising technology is wood gasification.

  4. Atomic Transition Probabilities for Neutral Cerium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawler, J. E.; den Hartog, E. A.; Wood, M. P.; Nitz, D. E.; Chisholm, J.; Sobeck, J.

    2009-10-01

    The spectra of neutral cerium (Ce I) and singly ionized cerium (Ce II) are more complex than spectra of other rare earth species. The resulting high density of lines in the visible makes Ce ideal for use in metal halide (MH) High Intensity Discharge (HID) lamps. Inclusion of cerium-iodide in a lamp dose can improve both the Color Rendering Index and luminous efficacy of a MH-HID lamp. Basic spectroscopic data including absolute atomic transition probabilities for Ce I and Ce II are needed for diagnosing and modeling these MH-HID lamps. Recent work on Ce II [1] is now being augmented with similar work on Ce I. Radiative lifetimes from laser induced fluorescence measurements [2] on neutral Ce are being combined with emission branching fractions from spectra recorded using a Fourier transform spectrometer. A total of 14 high resolution spectra are being analyzed to determine branching fractions for 2000 to 3000 lines from 153 upper levels in neutral Ce. Representative data samples and progress to date will be presented. [4pt] [1] J. E. Lawler, C. Sneden, J. J. Cowan, I. I. Ivans, and E. A. Den Hartog, Astrophys. J. Suppl. Ser. 182, 51-79 (2009). [0pt] [2] E. A. Den Hartog, K. P. Buettner, and J. E. Lawler, J. Phys. B: Atomic, Molecular & Optical Physics 42, 085006 (7pp) (2009).

  5. Joint probability distributions and fluctuation theorems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-García, Reinaldo; Lecomte, Vivien; Kolton, Alejandro B.; Domínguez, Daniel

    2012-02-01

    We derive various exact results for Markovian systems that spontaneously relax to a non-equilibrium steady state by using joint probability distribution symmetries of different entropy production decompositions. The analytical approach is applied to diverse problems such as the description of the fluctuations induced by experimental errors, for unveiling symmetries of correlation functions appearing in fluctuation-dissipation relations recently generalized to non-equilibrium steady states, and also for mapping averages between different trajectory-based dynamical ensembles. Many known fluctuation theorems arise as special instances of our approach for particular twofold decompositions of the total entropy production. As a complement, we also briefly review and synthesize the variety of fluctuation theorems applying to stochastic dynamics of both continuous systems described by a Langevin dynamics and discrete systems obeying a Markov dynamics, emphasizing how these results emerge from distinct symmetries of the dynamical entropy of the trajectory followed by the system. For Langevin dynamics, we embed the 'dual dynamics' with a physical meaning, and for Markov systems we show how the fluctuation theorems translate into symmetries of modified evolution operators.

  6. Do aftershock probabilities decay with time?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    So, do aftershock probabilities decay with time? Consider a thought experiment in which we are at the time of the mainshock and ask how many aftershocks will occur a day, week, month, year, or even a century from now. First we must decide how large a window to use around each point in time. Let's assume that, as we go further into the future, we are asking a less precise question. Perhaps a day from now means 1 day 10% of a day, a week from now means 1 week 10% of a week, and so on. If we ignore c because it is a small fraction of a day (e.g., Reasenberg and Jones, 1989, hereafter RJ89), and set p = 1 because it is usually close to 1 (its value in the original Omori law), then the rate of earthquakes (K=t) decays at 1=t. If the length of the windows being considered increases proportionally to t, then the number of earthquakes at any time from now is the same because the rate decrease is canceled by the increase in the window duration. Under these conditions we should never think "It's a bit late for this to be an aftershock."

  7. Parametric probability distributions for anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Foy, Bernard R; Wohlberg, Brendt E; Scovel, James C

    2010-01-01

    The problem of anomalous change detection arises when two (or possibly more) images are taken of the same scene, but at different times. The aim is to discount the 'pervasive differences' that occur thoughout the imagery, due to the inevitably different conditions under which the images were taken (caused, for instance, by differences in illumination, atmospheric conditions, sensor calibration, or misregistration), and to focus instead on the 'anomalous changes' that actually take place in the scene. In general, anomalous change detection algorithms attempt to model these normal or pervasive differences, based on data taken directly from the imagery, and then identify as anomalous those pixels for which the model does not hold. For many algorithms, these models are expressed in terms of probability distributions, and there is a class of such algorithms that assume the distributions are Gaussian. By considering a broader class of distributions, however, a new class of anomalous change detection algorithms can be developed. We consider several parametric families of such distributions, derive the associated change detection algorithms, and compare the performance with standard algorithms that are based on Gaussian distributions. We find that it is often possible to significantly outperform these standard algorithms, even using relatively simple non-Gaussian models.

  8. Lectures on probability and statistics. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, G.P.

    1985-06-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. They begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probabilty of any specified outcome. They finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another. Hopefully, the reader will come away from these notes with a feel for some of the problems and uncertainties involved. Although there are standard approaches, most of the time there is no cut and dried ''best'' solution - ''best'' according to every criterion.

  9. Enhanced awakening probability of repetitive impulse sounds.

    PubMed

    Vos, Joos; Houben, Mark M J

    2013-09-01

    In the present study relations between the level of impulse sounds and the observed proportion of behaviorally confirmed awakening reactions were determined. The sounds (shooting sounds, bangs produced by door slamming or by container transshipment, aircraft landings) were presented by means of loudspeakers in the bedrooms of 50 volunteers. The fragments for the impulse sounds consisted of single or multiple events. The sounds were presented during a 6-h period that started 75 min after the subjects wanted to sleep. In order to take account of habituation, each subject participated during 18 nights. At equal indoor A-weighted sound exposure levels, the proportion of awakening for the single impulse sounds was equal to that for the aircraft sounds. The proportion of awakening induced by the multiple impulse sounds, however, was significantly higher. For obtaining the same rate of awakening, the sound level of each of the successive impulses in a fragment had to be about 15-25 dB lower than the level of one single impulse. This level difference was largely independent of the degree of habituation. Various explanations for the enhanced awakening probability are discussed. PMID:23967934

  10. Essays on probability elicitation scoring rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmino, Paulo Renato A.; dos Santos Neto, Ademir B.

    2012-10-01

    In probability elicitation exercises it has been usual to considerer scoring rules (SRs) to measure the performance of experts when inferring about a given unknown, Θ, for which the true value, θ*, is (or will shortly be) known to the experimenter. Mathematically, SRs quantify the discrepancy between f(θ) (the distribution reflecting the expert's uncertainty about Θ) and d(θ), a zero-one indicator function of the observation θ*. Thus, a remarkable characteristic of SRs is to contrast expert's beliefs with the observation θ*. The present work aims at extending SRs concepts and formulas for the cases where Θ is aleatory, highlighting advantages of goodness-of-fit and entropy-like measures. Conceptually, it is argued that besides of evaluating the personal performance of the expert, SRs may also play a role when comparing the elicitation processes adopted to obtain f(θ). Mathematically, it is proposed to replace d(θ) by g(θ), the distribution that model the randomness of Θ, and do also considerer goodness-of-fit and entropylike metrics, leading to SRs that measure the adherence of f(θ) to g(θ). The implications of this alternative perspective are discussed and illustrated by means of case studies based on the simulation of controlled experiments. The usefulness of the proposed approach for evaluating the performance of experts and elicitation processes is investigated.

  11. Probability of rupture of multiple fault segments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Andrews, D.J.; Schwerer, E.

    2000-01-01

    Fault segments identified from geologic and historic evidence have sometimes been adopted as features limiting the likely extends of earthquake ruptures. There is no doubt that individual segments can sometimes join together to produce larger earthquakes. This work is a trial of an objective method to determine the probability of multisegment ruptures. The frequency of occurrence of events on all conjectured combinations of adjacent segments in northern California is found by fitting to both geologic slip rates and to an assumed distribution of event sizes for the region as a whole. Uncertainty in the shape of the distribution near the maximum magnitude has a large effect on the solution. Frequencies of individual events cannot be determined, but it is possible to find a set of frequencies to fit a model closely. A robust conclusion for the San Francisco Bay region is that large multisegment events occur on the San Andreas and San Gregorio faults, but single-segment events predominate on the extended Hayward and Calaveras strands of segments.

  12. Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict

    PubMed Central

    Smithson, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Whether conflict and ambiguity are distinct kinds of uncertainty remains an open question, as does their joint impact on judgments of overall uncertainty. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of human judgment and decision making when both ambiguity and conflict are present, and presents two types of testable models of judgments under conflict and ambiguity. The first type concerns estimate-pooling to arrive at “best” probability estimates. The second type is models of subjective assessments of conflict and ambiguity. These models are developed for dealing with both described and experienced information. A framework for testing these models in the described-information setting is presented, including a reanalysis of a multi-nation data-set to test best-estimate models, and a study of participants' assessments of conflict, ambiguity, and overall uncertainty reported by Smithson (2013). A framework for research in the experienced-information setting is then developed, that differs substantially from extant paradigms in the literature. This framework yields new models of “best” estimates and perceived conflict. The paper concludes with specific suggestions for future research on judgment and decision making under conflict and ambiguity. PMID:26042081

  13. Probability distribution on faults near the city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paradisopoulou, P.; Papadimitriou, E.; Mirek, J.; Karakostas, V.

    2012-04-01

    Many studies found that stress triggering and fault interaction theories can be incorporated into quantitative earthquake probability estimates. Using two methods of time dependent probability estimates this work aims at the evaluation of the occurrence probability of anticipated earthquakes in the city of Thessaloniki, an urban center of 1 million people located in northern Greece, conditional to the time elapsed since the last stronger event on each fault of the study area and to the history of the following events on adjacent active faults. The city of Thessaloniki was chosen as a case study because is the second largest city in the territory of Greece surrounded by several small towns. The latest destructive earthquake occurred in 1978 (M=6.5) and caused the collapse of buildings and loss of life in the city and nearby villages. In this study we start from the estimate of the probability of occurrence for the stronger known earthquake on a fault in the period 2011-2041 (30 years) based on a time-dependent renewal model. For this probabilistic earthquake forecast the coseismic stress changes of strong earthquakes (M≥6.5) that occurred since the beginning of 20th century in the study area are calculated. The coseismic stress changes are translated into earthquake probability using an earthquake nucleation constitutive relation. According to this the occurrence rate of the anticipated earthquake is calculated taking into account both permanent (clock advance) and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations. Earthquake probability on a fault is lowest after the last event but as tectonic stress grows the odds of another earthquake increase. For all needed calculations a probability density function for the time of failure for an earthquake of defined magnitude on the fault of interest must be taken into account along with the calculated stress changes on the fault. The technique for incorporating stress changes into the estimation of earthquake probability has

  14. New Program Aims $300-Million at Young Biomedical Researchers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodall, Hurley

    2008-01-01

    Medical scientists just starting at universities have been, more and more often, left empty-handed when the federal government awards grants. To offset this, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, a nonprofit organization dedicated to medical research, announced a new program that will award $300-million to as many as 70 young scientists. The Early…

  15. The Million Dollar Bowl. OSHA in the Office.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swartz, Carl

    Accidents to office workers add up to 40,000 injuries and more than 200 deaths a year, amounting to expenses from medical assistance and loss of productivity of $100 million. Leading types of accidents are falling caused by slipping on slick or wet floors, tripping over file drawers, slipping on debris on stairs, injuries from poor lighting,…

  16. The MET Project: The Wrong 45 Million Dollar Question

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gabriel, Rachael; Allington, Richard

    2012-01-01

    In 2009, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation funded the investigation of a $45 million question: How can we identify and develop effective teaching? Now that the findings from their Measures of Effective Teaching (MET) project have been released, it's clear they asked a simpler question, namely, What other measures match up well with value-added…

  17. ONE MILLION GALLON WATER TANK, PUMP HEADER PIPE (AT LEFT), ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    ONE MILLION GALLON WATER TANK, PUMP HEADER PIPE (AT LEFT), HEADER BYPASS PIPE (AT RIGHT), AND PUMPHOUSE FOUNDATIONS. Looking northeast - Edwards Air Force Base, Air Force Rocket Propulsion Laboratory, Flame Deflector Water System, Test Area 1-120, north end of Jupiter Boulevard, Boron, Kern County, CA

  18. Once in a Million Years: Teaching Geologic Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Susan E.; Lampe, Kristen A.; Lloyd, Andrew J.

    2005-01-01

    The authors advocate that students frequently lack fundamental numerical literacy on the order of millions or billions, and that this comprehension is critical to grasping key evolutionary concepts related to the geologic time scale, the origin and diversification of life on earth, and other concepts such as the national debt, human population…

  19. Scramble Begins for $650 Million in "i3" Funding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNeil, Michele

    2010-01-01

    Nearly 2,500 districts, schools, and nonprofits representing every state have indicated they plan to compete for an Investing in Innovation grant, setting up a furious fight over $650 million in federal economic-stimulus money that is designed to scale up creative solutions to education's most vexing problems. The large group of prospective…

  20. Uncovered: Social Security, Retirement Uncertainty, and 1 Million Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kan, Leslie; Aldeman, Chad

    2014-01-01

    Retirement savings are often described as a three-legged stool: Social Security, employer retirement plans, and personal savings. For many American workers, Social Security is the most consistent portion of the three-legged model, providing a solid plank of retirement savings. But nationwide, more than 1 million teachers--about 40 percent of all…

  1. Copper River hydraulic study at Million Dollar Bridge, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Stanley H.; Barber, William F.

    1980-01-01

    The Copper River hydraulic conditions in the vicinity of the Million-Dollar Bridge, Alaska, at the outlet to Miles Lake are described. The water discharge, lake and river bed profiles, bathymetry, velocity, and direction of flow are presented. (Kosco-USGS)

  2. Universities' Royalty Income Increased 33% in 1997, Reaching $446-Million.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Basinger, Julianne

    1999-01-01

    According to an annual survey, 132 U.S. research universities earned over $446 million in royalties from inventions in fiscal 1997, and received 2,239 patents. The University of California was the top earner. Data provided on the top-earning institutions includes dollar amount of adjusted gross royalties received, number of licenses generating…

  3. Universities Collected $642-Million in Royalties on Inventions in 1999.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blumenstyk, Goldie

    2000-01-01

    U.S. universities collected more than $641 million from royalties on their inventions in the 1999 fiscal year, and they filed for 7,612 patents. Findings from a survey by the Association of University Technology Managers show licensing revenues, patent activity, and income from technology developments of U.S. higher education institutions. (SLD)

  4. Levetiracetam: Probably Associated Diurnal Frequent Urination.

    PubMed

    Ju, Jun; Zou, Li-Ping; Shi, Xiu-Yu; Hu, Lin-Yan; Pang, Ling-Yu

    2016-01-01

    Diurnal frequent urination is a common condition in elementary school children who are especially at risk for associated somatic and behavioral problems. Levetiracetam (LEV) is a broad-spectrum antiepileptic drug that has been used in both partial and generalized seizures and less commonly adverse effects including psychiatric and behavioral problems. Diurnal frequent urination is not a well-known adverse effect of LEV. Here, we reported 2 pediatric cases with epilepsy that developed diurnal frequent urination after LEV administration. Case 1 was a 6-year-old male patient who presented urinary frequency and urgency in the daytime since the third day after LEV was given as adjunctive therapy. Symptoms increased accompanied by the raised dosage of LEV. Laboratory tests and auxiliary examinations did not found evidence of organic disease. Diurnal frequent urination due to LEV was suspected, and then the drug was discontinued. As expected, his frequency of urination returned to normal levels. Another 13-year-old female patient got similar clinical manifestations after oral LEV monotherapy and the symptoms became aggravated while in stress state. Since the most common causes of frequent micturition had been ruled out, the patient was considered to be diagnosed with LEV-associated psychogenic frequent urination. The dosage of LEV was reduced to one-third, and the frequency of urination was reduced by 60%. Both patients got the Naranjo score of 6, which indicated that LEV was a "probable" cause of diurnal frequent urination. Although a definite causal link between LEV and diurnal urinary frequency in the 2 cases remains to be established, we argue that diurnal frequent urination associated with LEV deserves clinician's attention. PMID:26938751

  5. Movement disorders of probable infectious origin

    PubMed Central

    Jhunjhunwala, Ketan; Netravathi, M.; Pal, Pramod Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Background: Movement disorders (MDs) associated with infections remains an important debilitating disorder in the Asian countries. Objectives: The objective of the following study is to report the clinical and imaging profile of a large cohort of patients with MDs probably associated with infection. Materials and Methods: This was a chart review of 35 patients (F:M-15:20) presenting with MD in the Neurology services of National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences, India. The demographic profile, type of infection, time from infection to MD, phenomenology of MD and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings were reviewed. Results: The mean age at presentation was 22.6 ± 13.3 years, (5-60), age of onset of MD was 15.7 ± 15 years, and duration of symptoms was 6.9 ± 8.1 years (42 days to 32 years). The mean latency of onset of MD after the infection was 5.9 ± 4.2 weeks. The phenomenology of MD were: (1) Pure dystonia-28.6%, (2) dystonia with choreoathetosis-22.9%, (3) Parkinsonism-14.6%, (4) pure tremor, hemiballismus, myoclonus and chorea-2.9% each, and (5) mixed MD-22.9%. Most often the MD was generalized (60%), followed by right upper limb (31.4%) and left upper limb (8.6%). A viral encephalitic type of neuroinfection was the most common infection (85.7%), which was associated with MD. Abnormalities of brain MRI, seen in 79.2%, included signal changes in (1) thalamus-52.0%, (2) putamen and subcortical white matter-16% each, (3) pons-12%, (4) striatopallidum, striatum and grey matter-8% each, and (5) caudate, cerebellum, lentiform nucleus, midbrain and subthalamic nucleus-4.0% each. Conclusions: MDs associated with infection were the most often post-encephalitic. Dystonia was the most common MD, and thalamus was the most common anatomical site involved. PMID:25221398

  6. Datamining approaches for modeling tumor control probability

    PubMed Central

    Naqa, Issam El; Deasy, Joseph O.; Mu, Yi; Huang, Ellen; Hope, Andrew J.; Lindsay, Patricia E.; Apte, Aditya; Alaly, James; Bradley, Jeffrey D.

    2016-01-01

    Background Tumor control probability (TCP) to radiotherapy is determined by complex interactions between tumor biology, tumor microenvironment, radiation dosimetry, and patient-related variables. The complexity of these heterogeneous variable interactions constitutes a challenge for building predictive models for routine clinical practice. We describe a datamining framework that can unravel the higher order relationships among dosimetric dose-volume prognostic variables, interrogate various radiobiological processes, and generalize to unseen data before when applied prospectively. Material and methods Several datamining approaches are discussed that include dose-volume metrics, equivalent uniform dose, mechanistic Poisson model, and model building methods using statistical regression and machine learning techniques. Institutional datasets of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients are used to demonstrate these methods. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate Spearman rank correlations (rs). Over-fitting was controlled via resampling methods. Results Using a dataset of 56 patients with primary NCSLC tumors and 23 candidate variables, we estimated GTV volume and V75 to be the best model parameters for predicting TCP using statistical resampling and a logistic model. Using these variables, the support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance for TCP prediction with an rs = 0.68 on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression (rs = 0.4), Poisson-based TCP (rs = 0.33), and cell kill equivalent uniform dose model (rs = 0.17). Conclusions The prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing datamining approaches, which are able to unravel important non-linear complex interactions among model variables and have the capacity to predict on unseen data for prospective clinical applications. PMID:20192878

  7. Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

    2008-12-01

    We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for

  8. Failure-probability driven dose painting

    SciTech Connect

    Vogelius, Ivan R.; Håkansson, Katrin; Due, Anne K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Kristensen, Claus A.; Rasmussen, Jacob; Specht, Lena; Berthelsen, Anne K.; Bentzen, Søren M.

    2013-08-15

    Purpose: To demonstrate a data-driven dose-painting strategy based on the spatial distribution of recurrences in previously treated patients. The result is a quantitative way to define a dose prescription function, optimizing the predicted local control at constant treatment intensity. A dose planning study using the optimized dose prescription in 20 patients is performed.Methods: Patients treated at our center have five tumor subvolumes from the center of the tumor (PET positive volume) and out delineated. The spatial distribution of 48 failures in patients with complete clinical response after (chemo)radiation is used to derive a model for tumor control probability (TCP). The total TCP is fixed to the clinically observed 70% actuarial TCP at five years. Additionally, the authors match the distribution of failures between the five subvolumes to the observed distribution. The steepness of the dose–response is extracted from the literature and the authors assume 30% and 20% risk of subclinical involvement in the elective volumes. The result is a five-compartment dose response model matching the observed distribution of failures. The model is used to optimize the distribution of dose in individual patients, while keeping the treatment intensity constant and the maximum prescribed dose below 85 Gy.Results: The vast majority of failures occur centrally despite the small volumes of the central regions. Thus, optimizing the dose prescription yields higher doses to the central target volumes and lower doses to the elective volumes. The dose planning study shows that the modified prescription is clinically feasible. The optimized TCP is 89% (range: 82%–91%) as compared to the observed TCP of 70%.Conclusions: The observed distribution of locoregional failures was used to derive an objective, data-driven dose prescription function. The optimized dose is predicted to result in a substantial increase in local control without increasing the predicted risk of toxicity.

  9. On lacunary statistical convergence of order α in probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Işık, Mahmut; Et, Kübra Elif

    2015-09-01

    In this study, we examine the concepts of lacunary statistical convergence of order α in probability and Nθ—convergence of order α in probability. We give some relations connected to these concepts.

  10. What is preexisting strength? Predicting free association probabilities, similarity ratings, and cued recall probabilities.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Douglas L; Dyrdal, Gunvor M; Goodmon, Leilani B

    2005-08-01

    Measuring lexical knowledge poses a challenge to the study of the influence of preexisting knowledge on the retrieval of new memories. Many tasks focus on word pairs, but words are embedded in associative networks, so how should preexisting pair strength be measured? It has been measured by free association, similarity ratings, and co-occurrence statistics. Researchers interpret free association response probabilities as unbiased estimates of forward cue-to-target strength. In Study 1, analyses of large free association and extralist cued recall databases indicate that this interpretation is incorrect. Competitor and backward strengths bias free association probabilities, and as with other recall tasks, preexisting strength is described by a ratio rule. In Study 2, associative similarity ratings are predicted by forward and backward, but not by competitor, strength. Preexisting strength is not a unitary construct, because its measurement varies with method. Furthermore, free association probabilities predict extralist cued recall better than do ratings and co-occurrence statistics. The measure that most closely matches the criterion task may provide the best estimate of the identity of preexisting strength. PMID:16447386

  11. Probability in Theories With Complex Dynamics and Hardy's Fifth Axiom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burić, Nikola

    2010-08-01

    L. Hardy has formulated an axiomatization program of quantum mechanics and generalized probability theories that has been quite influential. In this paper, properties of typical Hamiltonian dynamical systems are used to argue that there are applications of probability in physical theories of systems with dynamical complexity that require continuous spaces of pure states. Hardy’s axiomatization program does not deal with such theories. In particular Hardy’s fifth axiom does not differentiate between such applications of classical probability and quantum probability.

  12. Asymptotic behavior of the supremum tail probability for anomalous diffusions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michna, Zbigniew

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we investigate asymptotic behavior of the tail probability for subordinated self-similar processes with regularly varying tail probability. We show that the tail probability of the one-dimensional distributions and the supremum tail probability are regularly varying with the pre-factor depending on the moments of the subordinating process. We can apply our result to the so-called anomalous diffusion.

  13. Pretest probability assessment derived from attribute matching

    PubMed Central

    Kline, Jeffrey A; Johnson, Charles L; Pollack, Charles V; Diercks, Deborah B; Hollander, Judd E; Newgard, Craig D; Garvey, J Lee

    2005-01-01

    Background Pretest probability (PTP) assessment plays a central role in diagnosis. This report compares a novel attribute-matching method to generate a PTP for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We compare the new method with a validated logistic regression equation (LRE). Methods Eight clinical variables (attributes) were chosen by classification and regression tree analysis of a prospectively collected reference database of 14,796 emergency department (ED) patients evaluated for possible ACS. For attribute matching, a computer program identifies patients within the database who have the exact profile defined by clinician input of the eight attributes. The novel method was compared with the LRE for ability to produce PTP estimation <2% in a validation set of 8,120 patients evaluated for possible ACS and did not have ST segment elevation on ECG. 1,061 patients were excluded prior to validation analysis because of ST-segment elevation (713), missing data (77) or being lost to follow-up (271). Results In the validation set, attribute matching produced 267 unique PTP estimates [median PTP value 6%, 1st–3rd quartile 1–10%] compared with the LRE, which produced 96 unique PTP estimates [median 24%, 1st–3rd quartile 10–30%]. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.82) for the attribute matching curve and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.77) for LRE. The attribute matching system categorized 1,670 (24%, 95% CI = 23–25%) patients as having a PTP < 2.0%; 28 developed ACS (1.7% 95% CI = 1.1–2.4%). The LRE categorized 244 (4%, 95% CI = 3–4%) with PTP < 2.0%; four developed ACS (1.6%, 95% CI = 0.4–4.1%). Conclusion Attribute matching estimated a very low PTP for ACS in a significantly larger proportion of ED patients compared with a validated LRE. PMID:16095534

  14. Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zimmerman, G.S.; Moser, T.J.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F., Jr.; White, Gary C.; Caswell, D.F.

    2009-01-01

    We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.

  15. 14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ..., must account for launch vehicle failure probability in a consistent manner. A launch vehicle failure... probabilistically valid. For a launch vehicle with fewer than two flights, the failure probability estimate must... circumstances. For a launch vehicle with two or more flights, launch vehicle failure probability......

  16. 14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.224 Probability of failure..., must account for launch vehicle failure probability in a consistent manner. A launch vehicle...

  17. 14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.224 Probability of failure..., must account for launch vehicle failure probability in a consistent manner. A launch vehicle...

  18. Pig Data and Bayesian Inference on Multinomial Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kern, John C.

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs[R]. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical…

  19. 28 CFR 2.214 - Probable cause hearing and determination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Probable cause hearing and determination... § 2.214 Probable cause hearing and determination. (a) Hearing. A supervised releasee who is retaken... been convicted of a new crime, shall be given a probable cause hearing by an examiner of the...

  20. 28 CFR 2.101 - Probable cause hearing and determination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Probable cause hearing and determination... Parolees § 2.101 Probable cause hearing and determination. (a) Hearing. A parolee who is retaken and held... convicted of a new crime, shall be given a probable cause hearing by an examiner of the Commission no...

  1. 21 CFR 1316.10 - Administrative probable cause.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 9 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Administrative probable cause. 1316.10 Section..., PRACTICES, AND PROCEDURES Administrative Inspections § 1316.10 Administrative probable cause. If the judge or magistrate is satisfied that “administrative probable cause,” as defined in section 510(d)(1)...

  2. Probability Constructs in Preschool Education and How they Are Taught

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Antonopoulos, Konstantinos; Zacharos, Konstantinos

    2013-01-01

    The teaching of Probability Theory constitutes a new trend in mathematics education internationally. The purpose of this research project was to explore the degree to which preschoolers understand key concepts of probabilistic thinking, such as sample space, the probability of an event and probability comparisons. At the same time, we evaluated an…

  3. Dose Reconstruction for the Million Worker Study: Status and Guidelines

    SciTech Connect

    Bouville, André; Toohey, Richard E.; Boice, John D.; Beck, Harold L.; Dauer, Larry T.; Eckerman, Keith F.; Hagemeyer, Derek; Leggett, Richard W.; Mumma, Michael T.; Napier, Bruce; Pryor, Kathy H.; Rosenstein, Marvin; Schauer, David A.; Sherbini, Sami; Stram, Daniel O.; Thompson, James L.; Till, John E.; Yoder, Craig; Zeitlin, Cary

    2015-02-01

    The primary aim of the epidemiologic study of one million U.S. radiation workers and veterans (the Million-Worker study) is to provide scientifically valid information on the level of radiation risk when exposures are received gradually over time, and not acutely as was the case for Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The primary outcome of the epidemiological study is cancer mortality but other causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease will be evaluated. The success of the study is tied to the validity of the dose reconstruction approaches to provide unbiased estimates of organ-specific radiation absorbed doses and their accompanying uncertainties. The dosimetry aspects for the Million-Worker study are challenging in that they address diverse exposure scenarios for diverse occupational groups being studied over a period of up to 70 years. The dosimetric issues differ among the varied exposed populations that are considered: atomic veterans, DOE workers exposed to both penetrating radiation and intakes of radionuclides, nuclear power plant workers, medical radiation workers, and industrial radiographers. While a major source of radiation exposure to the study population comes from external gamma-ray or x-ray sources, for certain of the study groups there is a meaningful component of radionuclide intakes that require internal radiation dosimetry measures. Scientific Committee 6-9 has been established by NCRP to produce a report on the comprehensive organ dose assessment (including uncertainty analysis) for the Million-Worker study. The Committee’s report will cover the specifics of practical dose reconstruction for the ongoing epidemiologic studies with uncertainty analysis discussions and will be a specific application of the guidance provided in NCRP Reports 158, 163, 164, and 171. The main role of the Committee is to provide guidelines to the various groups of dosimetrists involved in the various components of the Million

  4. Dose Reconstruction for the Million Worker Study: Status and Guidelines

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Bouville, André; Toohey, Richard E.; Boice, John D.; Beck, Harold L.; Dauer, Larry T.; Eckerman, Keith F.; Hagemeyer, Derek; Leggett, Richard W.; Mumma, Michael T.; Napier, Bruce; et al

    2015-02-01

    The primary aim of the epidemiologic study of one million U.S. radiation workers and veterans (the Million-Worker study) is to provide scientifically valid information on the level of radiation risk when exposures are received gradually over time, and not acutely as was the case for Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The primary outcome of the epidemiological study is cancer mortality but other causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease will be evaluated. The success of the study is tied to the validity of the dose reconstruction approaches to provide unbiased estimates of organ-specific radiation absorbed doses and theirmore » accompanying uncertainties. The dosimetry aspects for the Million-Worker study are challenging in that they address diverse exposure scenarios for diverse occupational groups being studied over a period of up to 70 years. The dosimetric issues differ among the varied exposed populations that are considered: atomic veterans, DOE workers exposed to both penetrating radiation and intakes of radionuclides, nuclear power plant workers, medical radiation workers, and industrial radiographers. While a major source of radiation exposure to the study population comes from external gamma-ray or x-ray sources, for certain of the study groups there is a meaningful component of radionuclide intakes that require internal radiation dosimetry measures. Scientific Committee 6-9 has been established by NCRP to produce a report on the comprehensive organ dose assessment (including uncertainty analysis) for the Million-Worker study. The Committee’s report will cover the specifics of practical dose reconstruction for the ongoing epidemiologic studies with uncertainty analysis discussions and will be a specific application of the guidance provided in NCRP Reports 158, 163, 164, and 171. The main role of the Committee is to provide guidelines to the various groups of dosimetrists involved in the various components of the Million

  5. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative

  6. Pattern formation, logistics, and maximum path probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkaldy, J. S.

    1985-05-01

    The concept of pattern formation, which to current researchers is a synonym for self-organization, carries the connotation of deductive logic together with the process of spontaneous inference. Defining a pattern as an equivalence relation on a set of thermodynamic objects, we establish that a large class of irreversible pattern-forming systems, evolving along idealized quasisteady paths, approaches the stable steady state as a mapping upon the formal deductive imperatives of a propositional function calculus. In the preamble the classical reversible thermodynamics of composite systems is analyzed as an externally manipulated system of space partitioning and classification based on ideal enclosures and diaphragms. The diaphragms have discrete classification capabilities which are designated in relation to conserved quantities by descriptors such as impervious, diathermal, and adiabatic. Differentiability in the continuum thermodynamic calculus is invoked as equivalent to analyticity and consistency in the underlying class or sentential calculus. The seat of inference, however, rests with the thermodynamicist. In the transition to an irreversible pattern-forming system the defined nature of the composite reservoirs remains, but a given diaphragm is replaced by a pattern-forming system which by its nature is a spontaneously evolving volume partitioner and classifier of invariants. The seat of volition or inference for the classification system is thus transferred from the experimenter or theoretician to the diaphragm, and with it the full deductive facility. The equivalence relations or partitions associated with the emerging patterns may thus be associated with theorems of the natural pattern-forming calculus. The entropy function, together with its derivatives, is the vehicle which relates the logistics of reservoirs and diaphragms to the analog logistics of the continuum. Maximum path probability or second-order differentiability of the entropy in isolation are

  7. Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

    SciTech Connect

    S. Kuzio

    2004-09-22

    Fracture spacing is a key hydrologic parameter in analyses of matrix diffusion. Although the individual fractures that transmit flow in the saturated zone (SZ) cannot be identified directly, it is possible to determine the fractured zones that transmit flow from flow meter survey observations. The fractured zones that transmit flow as identified through borehole flow meter surveys have been defined in this report as flowing intervals. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. The determination of flowing interval spacing is important because the flowing interval spacing parameter is a key hydrologic parameter in SZ transport modeling, which impacts the extent of matrix diffusion in the SZ volcanic matrix. The output of this report is input to the ''Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Abstraction'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170042]). Specifically, the analysis of data and development of a data distribution reported herein is used to develop the uncertainty distribution for the flowing interval spacing parameter for the SZ transport abstraction model. Figure 1-1 shows the relationship of this report to other model reports that also pertain to flow and transport in the SZ. Figure 1-1 also shows the flow of key information among the SZ reports. It should be noted that Figure 1-1 does not contain a complete representation of the data and parameter inputs and outputs of all SZ reports, nor does it show inputs external to this suite of SZ reports. Use of the developed flowing interval spacing probability distribution is subject to the limitations of the assumptions discussed in Sections 5 and 6 of this analysis report. The number of fractures in a flowing interval is not known. Therefore, the flowing intervals are assumed to be composed of one flowing zone in the transport simulations. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be

  8. Debris-flow hazard map units from gridded probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.

    1997-01-01

    The common statistical practice of dividing a range of probabilities into equal probability intervals may not result in useful landslide-hazard map units for areas populated by equal-area cells, each of which has a unique probability. Most hazard map areas contain very large numbers of cells having low probability of failure, and as probability increases, the number of cells decreases in a non-linear fashion. Exploration of this distribution suggests that the spatial frequency of expected failures may be used to identify probability intervals that define map units. From a spatial database of gridded probabilities, map units that address the different objectives of land-use planners and emergency response officials can be defined.

  9. Improving Multi-Million Virtual Rank MPI Execution in

    SciTech Connect

    Perumalla, Kalyan S; Park, Alfred J

    2011-01-01

    (MUPI) is a parallel discrete event simulator designed for enabling software-based experimentation via simulated execution across a range of synthetic to unmodified parallel programs using the Message Passing Interface (MPI) with millions of tasks. Here, we report work in progress in improving the efficiency of . Among the issues uncovered are the scaling problems with implementing barriers and intertask message ordering. Preliminary performance shows the possibility of supporting hundreds of virtual MPI ranks per real processor core. Performance improvements of at least 2 are observed, and enable execution of benchmark MPI runs with over 16 million virtual ranks synchronized in a discrete event fashion on as few as 16,128 real cores of a Cray XT5.

  10. Million-degree plasma pervading the extended Orion Nebula.

    PubMed

    Güdel, Manuel; Briggs, Kevin R; Montmerle, Thierry; Audard, Marc; Rebull, Luisa; Skinner, Stephen L

    2008-01-18

    Most stars form as members of large associations within dense, very cold (10 to 100 kelvin) molecular clouds. The nearby giant molecular cloud in Orion hosts several thousand stars of ages less than a few million years, many of which are located in or around the famous Orion Nebula, a prominent gas structure illuminated and ionized by a small group of massive stars (the Trapezium). We present x-ray observations obtained with the X-ray Multi-Mirror satellite XMM-Newton, revealing that a hot plasma with a temperature of 1.7 to 2.1 million kelvin pervades the southwest extension of the nebula. The plasma flows into the adjacent interstellar medium. This x-ray outflow phenomenon must be widespread throughout our Galaxy. PMID:18048651

  11. Feasibility of recovering a one million-pound booster

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toni, R. A.; Eckstrom, C. V.

    1980-01-01

    The concept of reusing spacecraft and launch vehicles is currently exemplified by the Space Shuttle Orbiter and the two recoverable and reusable solid rocket boosters (SRBs) which are part of its launch system. It is shown that it is possible to recover launch systems weighing as much as one million pounds at reasonable impact velocities using a hybrid parachute-retrorocket recovery system. The new Kevlar materials, which have a much higher strength-to-weight ratio than nylon materials, make it possible to recover a one-million-pound booster for a reasonable weight penalty. The selected input parameters to the parachute weight equation result in an accurate estimation of the current Space Shuttle solid rocket booster parachute recovery system.

  12. Flood basalt volcanism during the past 250 million years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, Michael R.; Stothers, Richard B.

    1988-01-01

    A chronology of the initiation dates of major continental flood basalt volcanism is established from published potassium-argon (K-Ar) and argon-argon (Ar-Ar) ages of basaltic rocks and related basic intrusions. The dating is therefore independent of the biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic time scales. Estimated errors of the initiation dates of the volcanic episodes determined from the distributions of the radiometric ages are, approximately, + or - 4 percent. There were 11 distinct episodes during the past 250 million years. Sometimes appearing in pairs, the episodes have occurred quasi-periodically with a mean cycle time of 32 + or - 1 (estimated error of the mean) million years. The initiation dates of the episodes are close to the estimated dates of mass extinctions of marine organisms. Showers of impacting comets may be the cause.

  13. The 13 million year Cenozoic pulse of the Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jiasheng; Kravchinsky, Vadim A.; Liu, Xiuming

    2015-12-01

    The geomagnetic polarity reversal rate changes radically from very low to extremely high. Such process indicates fundamental changes in the Earth's core reorganization and core-mantle boundary heat flow fluctuations. However, we still do not know how critical such changes are to surface geology and climate processes. Our analysis of the geomagnetic reversal frequency, oxygen isotope record, and tectonic plate subduction rate, which are indicators of the changes in the heat flux at the core mantle boundary, climate and plate tectonic activity, shows that all these changes indicate similar rhythms on million years' timescale in the Cenozoic Era occurring with the common fundamental periodicity of ∼13 Myr during most of the time. The periodicity is disrupted only during the last 20 Myr. Such periodic behavior suggests that large scale climate and tectonic changes at the Earth's surface are closely connected with the million year timescale cyclical reorganization of the Earth's interior.

  14. Tensile and fatigue data for irradiated and unirradiated AISI 310 stainless steel and titanium - 5 percent aluminum - 2.5 percent tin: Application of the method of universal slopes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Debogdan, C. E.

    1973-01-01

    Irradiated and unirradiated tensile and fatigue specimens of AISI 310 stainless steel and Ti-5Al-2.5Sn were tested in the range of 100 to 10,000 cycles to failure to determine the applicability of the method of universal slopes to irradiated materials. Tensile data for both materials showed a decrease in ductility and increase in ultimate tensile strength due to irradiation. Irradiation caused a maximum change in fatigue life of only 15 to 20 percent for both materials. The method of universal slopes predicted all the fatigue data for the 310 SS (irradiated as well as unirradiated) within a life factor of 2. For the titanium alloy, 95 percent of the data was predicted within a life factor of 3.

  15. Berkeley Lab scientists develop criteria for $20 million energy challenge

    ScienceCinema

    Walker, Iain

    2013-05-29

    Berkeley Labs Iain Walker and his colleagues in environmental energy research helped the Siebel Foundation develop the criteria for its Energy Free Home Challenge, which comes with a $20 million global incentive prize. The Challenge is a competition to create a new generation of systems and technologies for practical homes that realize a net-zero, non-renewable energy footprint without increasing the cost of ownership. It is open to everyone everywhere ? university teams to handymen and hobbyists.

  16. Conditional Probabilities for Large Events Estimated by Small Earthquake Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yi-Hsuan; Chen, Chien-Chih; Li, Hsien-Chi

    2016-01-01

    We examined forecasting quiescence and activation models to obtain the conditional probability that a large earthquake will occur in a specific time period on different scales in Taiwan. The basic idea of the quiescence and activation models is to use earthquakes that have magnitudes larger than the completeness magnitude to compute the expected properties of large earthquakes. We calculated the probability time series for the whole Taiwan region and for three subareas of Taiwan—the western, eastern, and northeastern Taiwan regions—using 40 years of data from the Central Weather Bureau catalog. In the probability time series for the eastern and northeastern Taiwan regions, a high probability value is usually yielded in cluster events such as events with foreshocks and events that all occur in a short time period. In addition to the time series, we produced probability maps by calculating the conditional probability for every grid point at the time just before a large earthquake. The probability maps show that high probability values are yielded around the epicenter before a large earthquake. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the probability maps demonstrate that the probability maps are not random forecasts, but also suggest that lowering the magnitude of a forecasted large earthquake may not improve the forecast method itself. From both the probability time series and probability maps, it can be observed that the probability obtained from the quiescence model increases before a large earthquake and the probability obtained from the activation model increases as the large earthquakes occur. The results lead us to conclude that the quiescence model has better forecast potential than the activation model.

  17. A physical-space approach for the probability hypothesis density and cardinalized probability hypothesis density filters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdinc, Ozgur; Willett, Peter; Bar-Shalom, Yaakov

    2006-05-01

    The probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter, an automatically track-managed multi-target tracker, is attracting increasing but cautious attention. Its derivation is elegant and mathematical, and thus of course many engineers fear it; perhaps that is currently limiting the number of researchers working on the subject. In this paper, we explore a physical-space approach - a bin model - which leads us to arrive the same filter equations as the PHD. Unlike the original derivation of the PHD filter, the concepts used are the familiar ones of conditional probability. The original PHD suffers from a "target-death" problem in which even a single missed detection can lead to the apparent disappearance of a target. To obviate this, PHD originator Mahler has recently developed a new "cardinalized" version of PHD (CPHD). We are able to extend our physical-space derivation to the CPHD case as well. We stress that the original derivations are mathematically correct, and need no embellishment from us; our contribution here is to offer an alternative derivation, one that we find appealing.

  18. ERP Correlates of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in Risky Choices: A Two-Stage Probability Processing View

    PubMed Central

    Li, Shu; Du, Xue-Lei; Li, Qi; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Wang, Yun; Rao, Li-Lin

    2016-01-01

    Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that people face. However, the question of whether verbal and numerical probabilities are cognitively processed in a similar manner remains unresolved. From a levels-of-processing perspective, verbal and numerical probabilities may be processed differently during early sensory processing but similarly in later semantic-associated operations. This event-related potential (ERP) study investigated the neural processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. The results showed that verbal probability and numerical probability elicited different N1 amplitudes but that verbal and numerical probabilities elicited similar N2 and P3 waveforms in response to different levels of probability (high to low). These results were consistent with a levels-of-processing framework and suggest some internal consistency between the cognitive processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. Our findings shed light on possible mechanism underlying probability expression and may provide the neural evidence to support the translation of verbal to numerical probabilities (or vice versa). PMID:26834612

  19. The role of terrestrial plants in limiting atmospheric CO(2) decline over the past 24 million years.

    PubMed

    Pagani, Mark; Caldeira, Ken; Berner, Robert; Beerling, David J

    2009-07-01

    Environmental conditions during the past 24 million years are thought to have been favourable for enhanced rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide drawdown by silicate chemical weathering. Proxy records indicate, however, that the Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations did not fall below about 200-250 parts per million during this period. The stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations near this minimum value suggests that strong negative feedback mechanisms inhibited further drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide by high rates of global silicate rock weathering. Here we investigate one possible negative feedback mechanism, occurring under relatively low carbon dioxide concentrations and in warm climates, that is related to terrestrial plant productivity and its role in the decomposition of silicate minerals. We use simulations of terrestrial and geochemical carbon cycles and available experimental evidence to show that vegetation activity in upland regions of active orogens was severely limited by near-starvation of carbon dioxide in combination with global warmth over this period. These conditions diminished biotic-driven silicate rock weathering and thereby attenuated an important long-term carbon dioxide sink. Although our modelling results are semi-quantitative and do not capture the full range of biogeochemical feedbacks that could influence the climate, our analysis indicates that the dynamic equilibrium between plants, climate and the geosphere probably buffered the minimum atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 24 million years. PMID:19571882

  20. Identification of 1.4 Million Active Galactic Nuclei in the Mid-Infrared using WISE Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Secrest, N. J.; Dudik, R. P.; Dorland, B. N.; Zacharias, N.; Makarov, V.; Fey, A.; Frouard, J.; Finch, C.

    2015-11-01

    We present an all-sky sample of ≈1.4 million active galactic nuclei (AGNs) meeting a two-color infrared photometric selection criteria for AGNs as applied to sources from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer final catalog release (AllWISE). We assess the spatial distribution and optical properties of our sample and find that the results are consistent with expectations for AGNs. These sources have a mean density of ≈38 AGNs per square degree on the sky, and their apparent magnitude distribution peaks at g ≈ 20, extending to objects as faint as g ≈ 26. We test the AGN selection criteria against a large sample of optically identified stars and determine the “leakage” (that is, the probability that a star detected in an optical survey will be misidentified as a quasi-stellar object (QSO) in our sample) rate to be ≤4.0 × 10-5. We conclude that our sample contains almost no optically identified stars (≤0.041%), making this sample highly promising for future celestial reference frame work as it significantly increases the number of all-sky, compact extragalactic objects. We further compare our sample to catalogs of known AGNs/QSOs and find a completeness value of ≳84% (that is, the probability of correctly identifying a known AGN/QSO is at least 84%) for AGNs brighter than a limiting magnitude of R ≲ 19. Our sample includes approximately 1.1 million previously uncataloged AGNs.

  1. A resolution to express the sense of the Senate in support of reducing its budget by at least 5 percent.

    THOMAS, 112th Congress

    Sen. Wicker, Roger F. [R-MS

    2011-03-08

    03/16/2011 Resolution agreed to in Senate without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (text: CR S1768) (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Passed SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

  2. Orbiter entry trajectory corridors: 32000 pound payload, 67.5 percent center of gravity. [glide path data compilation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Treybig, J. H.

    1975-01-01

    Thermal and equilibrium glide boundaries were used to analyze and/or design shuttle orbiter entry trajectories. Plots are presented of orbiter thermal and equilibrium glide boundaries in the drag/mass-relative velocity dynamic pressure-relative velocity, and altitude-relative velocity planes for an orbiter having a 32,000 pound payload and a 67.5% center of gravity location. These boundaries were defined for control points 1 through 4 of the shuttle orbiter for 40 deg-30 deg and 38 deg-28 deg ramped angle of attack entry profiles and 40 deg, 38 deg, 35 deg, 30 deg, 28 deg, and 25 deg constant angle of attack entry profiles each at 20 deg, 15 deg, and 10 deg constant body flap settings.

  3. Forms of leg abnormality observed in male broilers fed on a diet containing 12.5 percent rapeseed meal.

    PubMed

    Timms, L M

    1983-09-01

    The incidence of leg abnormalities was studied in 216 male Ross I broilers, fed for 10 weeks on a diet containing 12.5 per cent extracted rapeseed. Regular serological examination showed that the birds remained free from Mycoplasma gallisepticum, Mycoplasma synoviae and avian reovirus throughout the period of investigation. Post mortem examination and radiographs were performed when birds were culled due to leg deformities or at the end of the experiment. Leg abnormalities were seen in 19.4 per cent of the birds which represents a very significant increase above that currently seen in commercial flocks. They consisted of a large range of skeletal deformities including valgus and varus deformities, dyschondroplasia, slipped gastrocnemius tendons, dislocated condyles, rotation and penetration of the distal tibiotarsus and fractured fibulas. Multiple forms of leg abnormality were often observed in individual birds and their association is briefly discussed. PMID:6635344

  4. Probability estimates of seismic event occurrence compared to health hazards - Forecasting Taipei's Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fung, D. C. N.; Wang, J. P.; Chang, S. H.; Chang, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    Using a revised statistical model built on past seismic probability models, the probability of different magnitude earthquakes occurring within variable timespans can be estimated. The revised model is based on Poisson distribution and includes the use of best-estimate values of the probability distribution of different magnitude earthquakes recurring from a fault from literature sources. Our study aims to apply this model to the Taipei metropolitan area with a population of 7 million, which lies in the Taipei Basin and is bounded by two normal faults: the Sanchaio and Taipei faults. The Sanchaio fault is suggested to be responsible for previous large magnitude earthquakes, such as the 1694 magnitude 7 earthquake in northwestern Taipei (Cheng et. al., 2010). Based on a magnitude 7 earthquake return period of 543 years, the model predicts the occurrence of a magnitude 7 earthquake within 20 years at 1.81%, within 79 years at 6.77% and within 300 years at 21.22%. These estimates increase significantly when considering a magnitude 6 earthquake; the chance of one occurring within the next 20 years is estimated to be 3.61%, 79 years at 13.54% and 300 years at 42.45%. The 79 year period represents the average lifespan of the Taiwan population. In contrast, based on data from 2013, the probability of Taiwan residents experiencing heart disease or malignant neoplasm is 11.5% and 29%. The inference of this study is that the calculated risk that the Taipei population is at from a potentially damaging magnitude 6 or greater earthquake occurring within their lifetime is just as great as of suffering from a heart attack or other health ailments.

  5. Exploring non-signalling polytopes with negative probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oas, G.; Acacio de Barros, J.; Carvalhaes, C.

    2014-12-01

    Bipartite and tripartite EPR-Bell type systems are examined via joint quasi-probability distributions where probabilities are permitted to be negative. It is shown that such distributions exist only when the no-signalling condition is satisfied. A characteristic measure, the probability mass, is introduced and, via its minimization, limits the number of quasi-distributions describing a given marginal probability distribution. The minimized probability mass is shown to be an alternative way to characterize non-local systems. Non-signalling polytopes for two to eight settings in the bipartite scenario are examined and compared to prior work. Examining perfect cloning of non-local systems within the tripartite scenario suggests defining two categories of signalling. It is seen that many properties of non-local systems can be efficiently described by quasi-probability theory.

  6. Ten million and one penguins, or, lessons learned from booting millions of virtual machines on HPC systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Minnich, Ronald G.; Rudish, Donald W.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we describe Megatux, a set of tools we are developing for rapid provisioning of millions of virtual machines and controlling and monitoring them, as well as what we've learned from booting one million Linux virtual machines on the Thunderbird (4660 nodes) and 550,000 Linux virtual machines on the Hyperion (1024 nodes) clusters. As might be expected, our tools use hierarchical structures. In contrast to existing HPC systems, our tools do not require perfect hardware; that all systems be booted at the same time; and static configuration files that define the role of each node. While we believe these tools will be useful for future HPC systems, we are using them today to construct botnets. Botnets have been in the news recently, as discoveries of their scale (millions of infected machines for even a single botnet) and their reach (global) and their impact on organizations (devastating in financial costs and time lost to recovery) have become more apparent. A distinguishing feature of botnets is their emergent behavior: fairly simple operational rule sets can result in behavior that cannot be predicted. In general, there is no reducible understanding of how a large network will behave ahead of 'running it'. 'Running it' means observing the actual network in operation or simulating/emulating it. Unfortunately, this behavior is only seen at scale, i.e. when at minimum 10s of thousands of machines are infected. To add to the problem, botnets typically change at least 11% of the machines they are using in any given week, and this changing population is an integral part of their behavior. The use of virtual machines to assist in the forensics of malware is not new to the cyber security world. Reverse engineering techniques often use virtual machines in combination with code debuggers. Nevertheless, this task largely remains a manual process to get past code obfuscation and is inherently slow. As part of our cyber security work at Sandia National Laboratories

  7. Path probability of stochastic motion: A functional approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hattori, Masayuki; Abe, Sumiyoshi

    2016-06-01

    The path probability of a particle undergoing stochastic motion is studied by the use of functional technique, and the general formula is derived for the path probability distribution functional. The probability of finding paths inside a tube/band, the center of which is stipulated by a given path, is analytically evaluated in a way analogous to continuous measurements in quantum mechanics. Then, the formalism developed here is applied to the stochastic dynamics of stock price in finance.

  8. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Richard F.; Patel, Khushbu; Yee, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models’ performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods provide new tools

  9. Anytime synthetic projection: Maximizing the probability of goal satisfaction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drummond, Mark; Bresina, John L.

    1990-01-01

    A projection algorithm is presented for incremental control rule synthesis. The algorithm synthesizes an initial set of goal achieving control rules using a combination of situation probability and estimated remaining work as a search heuristic. This set of control rules has a certain probability of satisfying the given goal. The probability is incrementally increased by synthesizing additional control rules to handle 'error' situations the execution system is likely to encounter when following the initial control rules. By using situation probabilities, the algorithm achieves a computationally effective balance between the limited robustness of triangle tables and the absolute robustness of universal plans.

  10. Weibull probability graph paper: a call for standardization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kane, Martin D.

    2001-04-01

    Weibull analysis of tensile strength data is routinely performed to determine the quality of optical fiber. A typical Weibull analysis includes setting up an experiment, testing the samples, plotting and interpreting the data, and performing a statistical analysis. One typical plot that is often included in the analysis is the Weibull probability plot in which the data are plotted as points on a special type of graph paper known as Weibull probability paper. If the data belong to a Weibull probability density function, they will fall approximately on a straight line. A search of the literature reveals that many Weibull analyses have been performed on optical fiber, but the associated Weibull probability plots have been drawn incorrectly. In some instances the plots have been shown with the ordinate (Probability) starting from 0% and ending at 100%. This has no physical meaning because the Weibull probability density function is a continuous distribution and is inherently not bounded. This paper will discuss the Weibull probability density function, the proper construction of Weibull probability graph paper, and interpretation of data through analysis of the associated probability plot.

  11. On the Role of Prior Probability in Adiabatic Quantum Algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Jie; Lu, Songfeng; Yang, Liping

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we study the role of prior probability on the efficiency of quantum local adiabatic search algorithm. The following aspects for prior probability are found here: firstly, only the probabilities of marked states affect the running time of the adiabatic evolution; secondly, the prior probability can be used for improving the efficiency of the adiabatic algorithm; thirdly, like the usual quantum adiabatic evolution, the running time for the case of multiple solution states where the number of marked elements are smaller enough than the size of the set assigned that contains them can be significantly bigger than that of the case where the assigned set only contains all the marked states.

  12. Oscillations in probability distributions for stochastic gene expression

    SciTech Connect

    Petrosyan, K. G. Hu, Chin-Kun

    2014-05-28

    The phenomenon of oscillations in probability distribution functions of number of components is found for a model of stochastic gene expression. It takes place in cases of low levels of molecules or strong intracellular noise. The oscillations distinguish between more probable even and less probable odd number of particles. The even-odd symmetry restores as the number of molecules increases with the probability distribution function tending to Poisson distribution. We discuss the possibility of observation of the phenomenon in gene, protein, and mRNA expression experiments.

  13. Code System to Calculate Pressure Vessel Failure Probabilities.

    2001-03-27

    Version 00 OCTAVIA (Operationally Caused Transients And Vessel Integrity Analysis) calculates the probability of pressure vessel failure from operationally-caused pressure transients which can occur in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). For specified vessel and operating environment characteristics the program computes the failure pressure at which the vessel will fail for different-sized flaws existing in the beltline and the probability of vessel failure per reactor year due to the flaw. The probabilities are summed over themore » various flaw sizes to obtain the total vessel failure probability. Sensitivity studies can be performed to investigate different vessel or operating characteristics in the same computer run.« less

  14. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for the last 500 million years.

    PubMed

    Rothman, Daniel H

    2002-04-01

    The last 500 million years of the strontium-isotope record are shown to correlate significantly with the concurrent record of isotopic fractionation between inorganic and organic carbon after the effects of recycled sediment are removed from the strontium signal. The correlation is shown to result from the common dependence of both signals on weathering and magmatic processes. Because the long-term evolution of carbon dioxide levels depends similarly on weathering and magmatism, the relative fluctuations of CO2 levels are inferred from the shared fluctuations of the isotopic records. The resulting CO2 signal exhibits no systematic correspondence with the geologic record of climatic variations at tectonic time scales. PMID:11904360

  15. [The Six Million Dollar Man: from fiction to reality].

    PubMed

    Langeveld, C H Kees

    2013-01-01

    The term 'bionic' has been in existence since 1958, but only gained general recognition from the television series 'The Six Million Dollar Man'. Following a crash, the central figure in this series - test pilot Steve Austin - has an eye, an arm and both legs replaced by prostheses which make him stronger and faster than a normal person. This story is based on the science fiction book 'Cyborg' by Martin Caidin. In the world of comic books and films there are a number of examples of people who are given superhuman powers by having technological gadgets built in. Although the latter is not yet possible, the bionic human has now become reality. PMID:24382050

  16. A Million-Second Chandra View of Cassiopeia A

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hwang, Una; Laming, J. Martin; Badenes, Carles; Berendse, Fred; Blondin, John; Cioffi, Denis; DeLaney, Tracey; Dewey, Daniel; Fesen, Robert; Flanagan, Kathryn A.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce a million-second observation of the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A with the Chandra X-ray Observatory. The bipolar structure of the Si-rich ejecta (NE jet and SW counterpart) is clearly evident in the new images, and their chemical similarity is confirmed by their spectra. These are most likely due to jets of ejecta as opposed to cavities in the circumstellar medium, since we can reject simple models for the latter. The properties of these jets and the Fe-rich ejecta will provide clues to the explosion of Cas A.

  17. Over 30 million psychedelic users in the United States.

    PubMed

    Krebs, Teri S; Johansen, Pål-Ørjan

    2013-01-01

    We estimated lifetime prevalence of psychedelic use (lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD), psilocybin (magic mushrooms), mescaline, and peyote) by age category using data from a 2010 US population survey of 57,873 individuals aged 12 years and older. There were approximately 32 million lifetime psychedelic users in the US in 2010; including 17% of people aged 21 to 64 years (22% of males and 12% of females). Rate of lifetime psychedelic use was greatest among people aged 30 to 34 (total 20%, including 26% of males and 15% of females). PMID:24627778

  18. MULTI - MILLION - TURN BEAM POSITION MONITORS FOR RHIC.

    SciTech Connect

    SATOGATA,T.CAMERON,P.CERNIGLIA,P.CUPOLO,J.DAWSON,CDEGEN,CMEAD,JVETTER,K

    2003-05-12

    During the RHIC 2003 run, two beam position monitors (BPMs) in each transverse plane in the RHIC blue ring were upgraded with high-capacity mezzanine cards. This upgrade provided these planes with the capability to digitize up to 128 million consecutive turns of RHIC beam, or almost 30 minutes of continuous beam centroid phase space evolution for a single RHIC bunch. This paper describes necessary hardware and software changes and initial system performance. We discuss early uses and results for diagnosis of coherent beam oscillations, turn-by-turn (TBT) acquisition through a RHIC acceleration ramp, and ac-dipole nonlinear dynamics studies.

  19. A hot Jupiter orbiting a 2-million-year-old solar-mass T Tauri star.

    PubMed

    Donati, J F; Moutou, C; Malo, L; Baruteau, C; Yu, L; Hébrard, E; Hussain, G; Alencar, S; Ménard, F; Bouvier, J; Petit, P; Takami, M; Doyon, R; Collier Cameron, A

    2016-06-30

    Hot Jupiters are giant Jupiter-like exoplanets that orbit their host stars 100 times more closely than Jupiter orbits the Sun. These planets presumably form in the outer part of the primordial disk from which both the central star and surrounding planets are born, then migrate inwards and yet avoid falling into their host star. It is, however, unclear whether this occurs early in the lives of hot Jupiters, when they are still embedded within protoplanetary disks, or later, once multiple planets are formed and interact. Although numerous hot Jupiters have been detected around mature Sun-like stars, their existence has not yet been firmly demonstrated for young stars, whose magnetic activity is so intense that it overshadows the radial velocity signal that close-in giant planets can induce. Here we report that the radial velocities of the young star V830 Tau exhibit a sine wave of period 4.93 days and semi-amplitude 75 metres per second, detected with a false-alarm probability of less than 0.03 per cent, after filtering out the magnetic activity plaguing the spectra. We find that this signal is unrelated to the 2.741-day rotation period of V830 Tau and we attribute it to the presence of a planet of mass 0.77 times that of Jupiter, orbiting at a distance of 0.057 astronomical units from the host star. Our result demonstrates that hot Jupiters can migrate inwards in less than two million years, probably as a result of planet–disk interactions. PMID:27324847

  20. A hot Jupiter orbiting a 2-million-year-old solar-mass T Tauri star

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donati, J. F.; Moutou, C.; Malo, L.; Baruteau, C.; Yu, L.; Hébrard, E.; Hussain, G.; Alencar, S.; Ménard, F.; Bouvier, J.; Petit, P.; Takami, M.; Doyon, R.; Cameron, A. Collier

    2016-06-01

    Hot Jupiters are giant Jupiter-like exoplanets that orbit their host stars 100 times more closely than Jupiter orbits the Sun. These planets presumably form in the outer part of the primordial disk from which both the central star and surrounding planets are born, then migrate inwards and yet avoid falling into their host star. It is, however, unclear whether this occurs early in the lives of hot Jupiters, when they are still embedded within protoplanetary disks, or later, once multiple planets are formed and interact. Although numerous hot Jupiters have been detected around mature Sun-like stars, their existence has not yet been firmly demonstrated for young stars, whose magnetic activity is so intense that it overshadows the radial velocity signal that close-in giant planets can induce. Here we report that the radial velocities of the young star V830 Tau exhibit a sine wave of period 4.93 days and semi-amplitude 75 metres per second, detected with a false-alarm probability of less than 0.03 per cent, after filtering out the magnetic activity plaguing the spectra. We find that this signal is unrelated to the 2.741-day rotation period of V830 Tau and we attribute it to the presence of a planet of mass 0.77 times that of Jupiter, orbiting at a distance of 0.057 astronomical units from the host star. Our result demonstrates that hot Jupiters can migrate inwards in less than two million years, probably as a result of planet–disk interactions.

  1. Osteopathology in Rhinocerotidae from 50 Million Years to the Present

    PubMed Central

    Stilson, Kelsey T.; Hopkins, Samantha S. B.; Davis, Edward Byrd

    2016-01-01

    Individual elements of many extinct and extant North American rhinocerotids display osteopathologies, particularly exostoses, abnormal textures, and joint margin porosity, that are commonly associated with localized bone trauma. When we evaluated six extinct rhinocerotid species spanning 50 million years (Ma), we found the incidence of osteopathology increases from 28% of all elements of Eocene Hyrachyus eximius to 65–80% of all elements in more derived species. The only extant species in this study, Diceros bicornis, displayed less osteopathologies (50%) than the more derived extinct taxa. To get a finer-grained picture, we scored each fossil for seven pathological indicators on a scale of 1–4. We estimated the average mass of each taxon using M1-3 length and compared mass to average pathological score for each category. We found that with increasing mass, osteopathology also significantly increases. We then ran a phylogenetically-controlled regression analysis using a time-calibrated phylogeny of our study taxa. Mass estimates were found to significantly covary with abnormal foramen shape and abnormal bone textures. This pattern in osteopathological expression may reflect a part of the complex system of adaptations in the Rhinocerotidae over millions of years, where increased mass, cursoriality, and/or increased life span are selected for, to the detriment of long-term bone health. This work has important implications for the future health of hoofed animals and humans alike. PMID:26840633

  2. Osteopathology in Rhinocerotidae from 50 Million Years to the Present.

    PubMed

    Stilson, Kelsey T; Hopkins, Samantha S B; Davis, Edward Byrd

    2016-01-01

    Individual elements of many extinct and extant North American rhinocerotids display osteopathologies, particularly exostoses, abnormal textures, and joint margin porosity, that are commonly associated with localized bone trauma. When we evaluated six extinct rhinocerotid species spanning 50 million years (Ma), we found the incidence of osteopathology increases from 28% of all elements of Eocene Hyrachyus eximius to 65-80% of all elements in more derived species. The only extant species in this study, Diceros bicornis, displayed less osteopathologies (50%) than the more derived extinct taxa. To get a finer-grained picture, we scored each fossil for seven pathological indicators on a scale of 1-4. We estimated the average mass of each taxon using M1-3 length and compared mass to average pathological score for each category. We found that with increasing mass, osteopathology also significantly increases. We then ran a phylogenetically-controlled regression analysis using a time-calibrated phylogeny of our study taxa. Mass estimates were found to significantly covary with abnormal foramen shape and abnormal bone textures. This pattern in osteopathological expression may reflect a part of the complex system of adaptations in the Rhinocerotidae over millions of years, where increased mass, cursoriality, and/or increased life span are selected for, to the detriment of long-term bone health. This work has important implications for the future health of hoofed animals and humans alike. PMID:26840633

  3. Almost 19 million childhood injuries result in 11 thousand deaths.

    PubMed

    Waldman, H B

    1996-01-01

    Details are provided from a series of government and private agency reports on the accidents and related deaths of children and the effectiveness of efforts being made to reduce the incidence of these tragedies. In 1992 there were 83,000 accidental deaths and more than 17 million disabling injuries in the United States costing $399 billion. The death rate was down 10 percent from 1991, and also the lowest recorded in recent years. Included in these statistics are 19 million injured children and 11 thousand dead children. The leading cause of death of children less than ten years of age was an unintentional injury. The author presents details on the accidents and related deaths, as well as the effectiveness of efforts to reduce the incidence of these accidents. From the youngest ages to the teen years, a greater number of males than females are injured and die from accident-related causes. The number of accidental deaths of children, ages five to nine years, almost equalled the number of deaths from natural causes. For children ten to fourteen years old, the number of accidental deaths was one third greater than the number from natural causes. Statistics regarding death and injury from motor vehicles, firearms, consumer products, and poison are presented. PMID:8655752

  4. Million atom DFT calculations using coarse graining and petascale computing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholson, Don; Odbadrakh, Kh.; Samolyuk, G. D.; Stoller, R. E.; Zhang, X. G.; Stocks, G. M.

    2014-03-01

    Researchers performing classical Molecular Dynamics (MD) on defect structures often find it necessary to use millions of atoms in their models. It would be useful to perform density functional calculations on these large configurations in order to observe electron-based properties such as local charge and spin and the Helmann-Feynman forces on the atoms. The great number of atoms usually requires that a subset be ``carved'' from the configuration and terminated in a less that satisfactory manner, e.g. free space or inappropriate periodic boundary conditions. Coarse graining based on the Locally Self-consistent Multiple Scattering method (LSMS) and petascale computing can circumvent this problem by treating the whole system but dividing the atoms into two groups. In Coarse Grained LSMS (CG-LSMS) one group of atoms has its charge and scattering determined prescriptively based on neighboring atoms while the remaining group of atoms have their charge and scattering determined according to DFT as implemented in the LSMS. The method will be demonstrated for a one-million-atom model of a displacement cascade in Fe for which 24,130 atoms are treated with full DFT and the remaining atoms are treated prescriptively. Work supported as part of Center for Defect Physics, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. DOE, Office of Science, Basic Energy Sciences, used Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility, Oak Ridge National Lab, of DOE Office of Science.

  5. Quantum particles from coarse grained classical probabilities in phase space

    SciTech Connect

    Wetterich, C.

    2010-07-15

    Quantum particles can be obtained from a classical probability distribution in phase space by a suitable coarse graining, whereby simultaneous classical information about position and momentum can be lost. For a suitable time evolution of the classical probabilities and choice of observables all features of a quantum particle in a potential follow from classical statistics. This includes interference, tunneling and the uncertainty relation.

  6. 14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.224 Probability of failure analysis. (a) General. All flight safety analyses for a launch, regardless of hazard or phase of...

  7. Preservice Elementary Teachers and the Fundamentals of Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dollard, Clark

    2011-01-01

    This study examined how preservice elementary teachers think about situations involving probability. Twenty-four preservice elementary teachers who had not yet studied probability as part of their preservice elementary mathematics coursework were interviewed using a task-based interview. The participants' responses showed a wide variety of…

  8. A Mathematical Microworld for Students to Learn Introductory Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jiang, Zhonghong; Potter, Walter D.

    1993-01-01

    Describes the Microworld Chance, a simulation-oriented computer environment that allows students to explore probability concepts in five subenvironments: coins, dice, spinners, thumbtacks, and marbles. Results of a teaching experiment to examine the effectiveness of the microworld in changing students' misconceptions about probability are…

  9. A "Virtual Spin" on the Teaching of Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beck, Shari A.; Huse, Vanessa E.

    2007-01-01

    This article, which describes integrating virtual manipulatives with the teaching of probability at the elementary level, puts a "virtual spin" on the teaching of probability to provide more opportunities for students to experience successful learning. The traditional use of concrete manipulatives is enhanced with virtual coins and spinners from…

  10. The case for lower probabilities as measures of uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B. ); Wagner, C. . Dept. of Mathematics)

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents the case for using lower probabilities as measures of uncertainty in expert systems. A debate has raged within the artificial intelligence community for years about how to represent uncertainty in expert systems. Several camps have emerged. One camp has focused on developing alternatives to probability theory, such as certainty factors, fuzzy sets, and endorsements. A second camp has focused on retrofitting classical, additive probability, for example, by developing a cautious approach to probabilistic reasoning and interpreting probability within a possible worlds framework. This paper falls into a third camp, which encompasses generalizations of probability theory. The most discussed generalization is known as Dempster-Shafer Theory, which is based on the combined work of Dempster and Shafer. Lower probabilities are actually a substantial generalization of DST. This paper has two parts. The first presents the definitions of lower probabilities, DST, and additive probability. This section includes a discussion of capacities, the most general type of uncertainty measure. The purpose of this section is to show the differences among the uncertainty measures.

  11. Use of External Visual Representations in Probability Problem Solving

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Corter, James E.; Zahner, Doris C.

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the use of external visual representations in probability problem solving. Twenty-six students enrolled in an introductory statistics course for social sciences graduate students (post-baccalaureate) solved eight probability problems in a structured interview format. Results show that students spontaneously use self-generated…

  12. Misconceptions in Rational Numbers, Probability, Algebra, and Geometry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rakes, Christopher R.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the author examined the relationship of probability misconceptions to algebra, geometry, and rational number misconceptions and investigated the potential of probability instruction as an intervention to address misconceptions in all 4 content areas. Through a review of literature, 5 fundamental concepts were identified that, if…

  13. Choice Strategies in Multiple-Cue Probability Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Chris M.; Koehler, Derek J.

    2007-01-01

    Choice strategies for selecting among outcomes in multiple-cue probability learning were investigated using a simulated medical diagnosis task. Expected choice probabilities (the proportion of times each outcome was selected given each cue pattern) under alternative choice strategies were constructed from corresponding observed judged…

  14. The Probability Approach to English If-Conditional Sentences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Mei

    2012-01-01

    Users of the Probability Approach choose the right one from four basic types of conditional sentences--factual, predictive, hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals, by judging how likely (i.e. the probability) the event in the result-clause will take place when the condition in the if-clause is met. Thirty-three students from the experimental…

  15. Public Attitudes toward Stuttering in Turkey: Probability versus Convenience Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozdemir, R. Sertan; St. Louis, Kenneth O.; Topbas, Seyhun

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: A Turkish translation of the "Public Opinion Survey of Human Attributes-Stuttering" ("POSHA-S") was used to compare probability versus convenience sampling to measure public attitudes toward stuttering. Method: A convenience sample of adults in Eskisehir, Turkey was compared with two replicates of a school-based, probability cluster…

  16. Prizes in Cereal Boxes: An Application of Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Litwiller, Bonnie H.; Duncan, David R.

    1992-01-01

    Presents four cases of real-world probabilistic situations to promote more effective teaching of probability. Calculates the probability of obtaining six of six different prizes successively in six, seven, eight, and nine boxes of cereal, generalizes the problem to n boxes of cereal, and offers suggestions to extend the problem. (MDH)

  17. Fisher classifier and its probability of error estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chittineni, C. B.

    1979-01-01

    Computationally efficient expressions are derived for estimating the probability of error using the leave-one-out method. The optimal threshold for the classification of patterns projected onto Fisher's direction is derived. A simple generalization of the Fisher classifier to multiple classes is presented. Computational expressions are developed for estimating the probability of error of the multiclass Fisher classifier.

  18. Multiple-event probability in general-relativistic quantum mechanics

    SciTech Connect

    Hellmann, Frank; Mondragon, Mauricio; Perez, Alejandro; Rovelli, Carlo

    2007-04-15

    We discuss the definition of quantum probability in the context of 'timeless' general-relativistic quantum mechanics. In particular, we study the probability of sequences of events, or multievent probability. In conventional quantum mechanics this can be obtained by means of the 'wave function collapse' algorithm. We first point out certain difficulties of some natural definitions of multievent probability, including the conditional probability widely considered in the literature. We then observe that multievent probability can be reduced to single-event probability, by taking into account the quantum nature of the measuring apparatus. In fact, by exploiting the von-Neumann freedom of moving the quantum/classical boundary, one can always trade a sequence of noncommuting quantum measurements at different times, with an ensemble of simultaneous commuting measurements on the joint system+apparatus system. This observation permits a formulation of quantum theory based only on single-event probability, where the results of the wave function collapse algorithm can nevertheless be recovered. The discussion also bears on the nature of the quantum collapse.

  19. A Quantum Theoretical Explanation for Probability Judgment Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Franco, Riccardo; Trueblood, Jennifer S.

    2011-01-01

    A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector…

  20. Probabilities of Natural Events Occurring at Savannah River Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, J.C.

    2001-07-17

    This report documents the comprehensive evaluation of probability models of natural events which are applicable to Savannah River Plant. The probability curves selected for these natural events are recommended to be used by all SRP/SRL safety analysts. This will ensure a consistency in analysis methodology for postulated SAR incidents involving natural phenomena.

  1. 14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224 Section 417.224 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.224 Probability of failure analysis. (a) General. All...

  2. On the Provenance of Judgments of Conditional Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhao, Jiaying; Shah, Anuj; Osherson, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    In standard treatments of probability, Pr(A[vertical bar]B) is defined as the ratio of Pr(A[intersection]B) to Pr(B), provided that Pr(B) greater than 0. This account of conditional probability suggests a psychological question, namely, whether estimates of Pr(A[vertical bar]B) arise in the mind via implicit calculation of…

  3. Probability Theory, Not the Very Guide of Life

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Juslin, Peter; Nilsson, Hakan; Winman, Anders

    2009-01-01

    Probability theory has long been taken as the self-evident norm against which to evaluate inductive reasoning, and classical demonstrations of violations of this norm include the conjunction error and base-rate neglect. Many of these phenomena require multiplicative probability integration, whereas people seem more inclined to linear additive…

  4. A Probability Model of Accuracy in Deception Detection Experiments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Hee Sun; Levine, Timothy R.

    2001-01-01

    Extends the recent work on the veracity effect in deception detection. Explains the probabilistic nature of a receiver's accuracy in detecting deception and analyzes a receiver's detection of deception in terms of set theory and conditional probability. Finds that accuracy is shown to be a function of the relevant conditional probability and the…

  5. Visualizing and Understanding Probability and Statistics: Graphical Simulations Using Excel

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.; Gordon, Florence S.

    2009-01-01

    The authors describe a collection of dynamic interactive simulations for teaching and learning most of the important ideas and techniques of introductory statistics and probability. The modules cover such topics as randomness, simulations of probability experiments such as coin flipping, dice rolling and general binomial experiments, a simulation…

  6. The Influence of Phonotactic Probability on Word Recognition in Toddlers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Shafer, Valerie L.; Schwartz, Richard G.; Marton, Klara

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the influence of phonotactic probability on word recognition in English-speaking toddlers. Typically developing toddlers completed a preferential looking paradigm using familiar words, which consisted of either high or low phonotactic probability sound sequences. The participants' looking behavior was recorded in response…

  7. A New Way to Evaluate the Probability and Fresnel Integrals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khalili, Parviz

    2007-01-01

    In this article, we show how "Laplace Transform" may be used to evaluate variety of nontrivial improper integrals, including "Probability" and "Fresnel" integrals. The algorithm we have developed here to evaluate "Probability, Fresnel" and other similar integrals seems to be new. This method transforms the evaluation of certain improper integrals…

  8. Can Personality Type Explain Heterogeneity in Probability Distortions?

    PubMed Central

    Capra, C. Monica; Jiang, Bing; Engelmann, Jan B.; Berns, Gregory S.

    2014-01-01

    There are two regularities we have learned from experimental studies of choice under risk. The first is that the majority of people weigh objective probabilities non-linearly. The second regularity, although less commonly acknowledged, is that there is a large amount of heterogeneity in how people distort probabilities. Despite of this, little effort has been made to identify the source of heterogeneity. In this paper, we explore the possibility that personality type is linked to probability distortions. Using validated psychological questionnaires, we clustered participants into distinct personality types: motivated, impulsive, and affective. We found that the motivated viewed gambling more attractive, whereas the impulsive were the most capable of discriminating non-extreme probabilities. Our results suggest that the observed heterogeneity in probability distortions may be explained by personality profiles, which can be elicited though standard psychological questionnaires. PMID:24639891

  9. On the decode error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mceliece, R. J.; Swanson, L.

    1986-01-01

    Upper bounds on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes are derived. By definition, decoder error occurs when the decoder finds a codeword other than the transmitted codeword; this is in contrast to decoder failure, which occurs when the decoder fails to find any codeword at all. The results imply, for example, that for a t error correcting Reed-Solomon code of length q - 1 over GF(q), if more than t errors occur, the probability of decoder error is less than 1/t! In particular, for the Voyager Reed-Solomon code, the probability of decoder error given a word error is smaller than 3 x 10 to the minus 14th power. Thus, in a typical operating region with probability 100,000 of word error, the probability of undetected word error is about 10 to the minus 14th power.

  10. On the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mceliece, Robert J.; Swanson, Laif

    1986-01-01

    Upper bounds on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes are derived. By definition, decoder error occurs when the decoder finds a codeword other than the transmitted codeword; this is in contrast to decoder failure, which occurs when the decoder fails to find any codeword at all. The results imply, for example, that for a t error-correcting Reed-Solomon code of length q - 1 over GF(q), if more than t errors occur, the probability of decoder error is less than 1/t. In particular, for the Voyager Reed-Solomon code, the probability of decoder error given a word error is smaller than 3 x 10 to the minus 14th power. Thus, in a typical operating region with probability 100,000 of word error, the probability of undetected word error is about 10 to the minus 14th power.

  11. Estimation of State Transition Probabilities: A Neural Network Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, Hiroshi; Takiyama, Ken; Okada, Masato

    2015-12-01

    Humans and animals can predict future states on the basis of acquired knowledge. This prediction of the state transition is important for choosing the best action, and the prediction is only possible if the state transition probability has already been learned. However, how our brains learn the state transition probability is unknown. Here, we propose a simple algorithm for estimating the state transition probability by utilizing the state prediction error. We analytically and numerically confirmed that our algorithm is able to learn the probability completely with an appropriate learning rate. Furthermore, our learning rule reproduced experimentally reported psychometric functions and neural activities in the lateral intraparietal area in a decision-making task. Thus, our algorithm might describe the manner in which our brains learn state transition probabilities and predict future states.

  12. On the decode error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McEliece, R. J.; Swanson, L.

    1986-02-01

    Upper bounds on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes are derived. By definition, decoder error occurs when the decoder finds a codeword other than the transmitted codeword; this is in contrast to decoder failure, which occurs when the decoder fails to find any codeword at all. The results imply, for example, that for a t error correcting Reed-Solomon code of length q - 1 over GF(q), if more than t errors occur, the probability of decoder error is less than 1/t] In particular, for the Voyager Reed-Solomon code, the probability of decoder error given a word error is smaller than 3 x 10 to the minus 14th power. Thus, in a typical operating region with probability 100,000 of word error, the probability of undetected word error is about 10 to the minus 14th power.

  13. A discussion on the origin of quantum probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Holik, Federico; Sáenz, Manuel; Plastino, Angel

    2014-01-15

    We study the origin of quantum probabilities as arising from non-Boolean propositional-operational structures. We apply the method developed by Cox to non distributive lattices and develop an alternative formulation of non-Kolmogorovian probability measures for quantum mechanics. By generalizing the method presented in previous works, we outline a general framework for the deduction of probabilities in general propositional structures represented by lattices (including the non-distributive case). -- Highlights: •Several recent works use a derivation similar to that of R.T. Cox to obtain quantum probabilities. •We apply Cox’s method to the lattice of subspaces of the Hilbert space. •We obtain a derivation of quantum probabilities which includes mixed states. •The method presented in this work is susceptible to generalization. •It includes quantum mechanics and classical mechanics as particular cases.

  14. Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.

    PubMed

    Goldman, Ron; Biton, Eli; Brokovich, Eran; Kark, Salit; Levin, Noam

    2015-02-15

    Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed. PMID:25534630

  15. Brookian stratigraphic plays in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska (NPRA)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Houseknecht, David W.

    2003-01-01

    The Brookian megasequence in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) includes bottomset and clinoform seismic facies of the Torok Formation (mostly Albian age) and generally coeval, topset seismic facies of the uppermost Torok Formation and the Nanushuk Group. These strata are part of a composite total petroleum system involving hydrocarbons expelled from three stratigraphic intervals of source rocks, the Lower Cretaceous gamma-ray zone (GRZ), the Lower Jurassic Kingak Shale, and the Triassic Shublik Formation. The potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Brookian megasequence in NPRA was assessed by defining five plays (assessment units), one in the topset seismic facies and four in the bottomset-clinoform seismic facies. The Brookian Topset Play is estimated to contain between 60 (95-percent probability) and 465 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 239 million barrels. The Brookian Topset Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 679 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 192 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform North Play, which extends across northern NPRA, is estimated to contain between 538 (95-percent probability) and 2,257 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 1,306 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform North Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 1,969 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 674 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform Central Play, which extends across central NPRA, is estimated to contain between 299 (95-percent probability) and 1,849 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 973

  16. Accurate measurement of the sticking time and sticking probability of Rb atoms on a polydimethylsiloxane coating

    SciTech Connect

    Atutov, S. N. Plekhanov, A. I.

    2015-01-15

    We present the results of a systematic study of Knudsen’s flow of Rb atoms in cylindrical capillary cells coated with a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) compound. The purpose of the investigation is to determine the characterization of the coating in terms of the sticking probability and sticking time of Rb on the two types of coating of high and medium viscosities. We report the measurement of the sticking probability of a Rb atom to the coating equal to 4.3 × 10{sup −5}, which corresponds to the number of bounces 2.3 × 10{sup 4} at room temperature. These parameters are the same for the two kinds of PDMS used. We find that at room temperature, the respective sticking times for high-viscosity and medium-viscosity PDMS are 22 ± 3 μs and 49 ± 6 μs. These sticking times are about million times larger than the sticking time derived from the surface Rb atom adsorption energy and temperature of the coating. A tentative explanation of this surprising result is proposed based on the bulk diffusion of the atoms that collide with the surface and penetrate inside the coating. The results can be important in many resonance cell experiments, such as the efficient magnetooptical trapping of rare elements or radioactive isotopes and in experiments on the light-induced drift effect.

  17. Depression Strikes Nearly 3 Million U.S. Teens a Year

    MedlinePlus

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_159763.html Depression Strikes Nearly 3 Million U.S. Teens a Year ... million U.S. teens suffered a major bout of depression, a new government report shows. "Adolescence is a ...

  18. 1.2 Million U.S. College Students Boozing on Average Day

    MedlinePlus

    ... nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_159056.html 1.2 Million U.S. College Students Boozing on Average ... getting high, a new government report shows. About 1.2 million full-time college students, aged 18 ...

  19. Depression Strikes Nearly 3 Million U.S. Teens a Year

    MedlinePlus

    ... nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_159763.html Depression Strikes Nearly 3 Million U.S. Teens a Year ... million U.S. teens suffered a major bout of depression, a new government report shows. "Adolescence is a ...

  20. More than one million new American Indians in 2000: who are they?

    PubMed

    Liebler, Carolyn A; Ortyl, Timothy

    2014-06-01

    More than one million people reported their race as American Indian/Alaska Native (AIAN) in the 2000 U.S. census but did not do so in the 1990 census. We ask three questions. First, which subgroups had the greatest numerical growth? Second, which subgroups had the greatest proportional increase? And third, are the 2000 single-race AIANs and the 1990 AIANs the same set of people? We use full-count and high-density decennial census data; adjust for birth, death, and immigration; decompose on age, gender, Latino origin, education, and birth state; and compare the observed subgroup sizes in 2000 with the sizes expected based on 1990 counts. The largest numerical increases were among adolescent and middle-aged non-Latinos, non-Latino women, and adults with no college degree. Latinos, women, highly educated adults, and people born in Eastern states had the largest proportionate gains. The ability to report multiple races in 2000 and the new federal definition of "American Indian" may have especially affected these groups, although personal-identity changes are probably also involved. We find that thousands of new Latino AIANs reported only one race in 2000, but many 1990 AIANs reported multiple races in 2000. Thus, the 1990 AIANs and 2000 single-race AIANs are not always the same individuals. PMID:24719274

  1. Iridium profile for 10 million years across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary at Gubbio (Italy)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alvarez, Walter; Asaro, Frank; Montanari, Alessandro

    1990-01-01

    The iridium anomaly at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) boundary was discovered in the pelagic limestone sequence at Gubbio on the basis of 12 samples analyzed by neutron activation analysis (NAA) and was interpreted as indicating impact of a large extraterrestrial object at exactly the time of the KT mass extinction. Continuing controversy over the shape of the Ir profile at the Gubbio KT boundary and its interpretation called for a more detailed follow-up study. Analysis of a 57-meter-thick, 10-million-year-old part of the Gubbio sequence using improved NAA techniques revealed that there is only one Ir anomaly at the KT boundary, but this anomaly shows an intricate fine structure, the origin of which cannot yet be entirely explained. The KT Ir anomaly peaks in a 1-centimeter-thick clay layer, where the average Ir concentration is 3000 parts per trillion (ppt); this peak is flanked by tails with Ir concentrations of 20 to 80 ppt that rise above a background of 12 to 13 ppt. The fine structure of the tails is probably due in part to lateral reworking, diffusion, burrowing, and perhaps Milankovitch cyclicity.

  2. Virtual dissection and lifestyle of a 165 -million-year-old female polychelidan lobster.

    PubMed

    Jauvion, Clément; Audo, Denis; Charbonnier, Sylvain; Vannier, Jean

    2016-03-01

    Polychelidan lobsters are fascinating crustaceans that were known as fossils before being discovered in the deep-sea. They differ from other crustaceans by having four to five pairs of claws. Although recent palaeontological studies have clarified the systematics and phylogeny of the group, the biology of extant polychelidans and--first of all--their anatomy are poorly documented. Numerous aspects of the evolutionary history of the group remain obscure, in particular, how and when polychelidans colonized the deep-sea and became restricted to it. Surprisingly, the biology of extant polychelidans and the anatomy of all species, fossil and recent, are poorly documented. Here, X-ray microtomography (XTM), applied to an exceptionally well-preserved specimen from the La Voulte Lagerstätte, reveals for the first time vital aspects of the external and internal morphology of Voulteryon parvulus (Eryonidae), a 165-million-year-old polychelidan: 1) its mouthparts (maxillae and maxillipeds), 2) its digestive tract and 3) its reproductive organs. Comparisons with dissected specimens clearly identify this specimen as a female with mature ovaries. This set of new information offers new insights into the feeding and reproductive habits of Mesozoic polychelidans. Contrasting with other Jurassic polychelidans that lived in shallow-water environments, V. parvulus spawned in, and probably inhabited, relatively deep-water environments, as do the survivors of the group. PMID:26577513

  3. Photographer: JPL P-21739 BW Range: 4.7 million kilometers (2.9 million miles) This picture of Io

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Photographer: JPL P-21739 BW Range: 4.7 million kilometers (2.9 million miles) This picture of Io was taken as Voyager 2 closes in on the Jovian system. Scientists are studying these distant views of Io for evidences of changes since Voyager 1 observations in March of 79. Voyager 1 discovered that Io, the innermost of the Galilean satellites, is the most volcanically active body yet seen in the solar system, surpassing even earth. In this picture, the first volcano discovered by Voyager 1 is again visible in the lower left portion of the disk as a dark oval with a dark spot in the center. In March, this volcano appeared as a heart-shaped marking, not a symmetrical oval. Scientists believe that the non-symmetric markings earlier resulted from a constriction in the mouth of the volcanic vent causing erupting material to extrude preferentially in certain directions. Apparently, the volcanic eruptive activity, which sends material to altitudes of 280 kilometers (175 miles) or more above this volcano, has changed the vent geometry or dislodged an obstruction. Such changes in the form of eruptive fountains are common in terrestial volcanos, although on a much smaller scale than on Io.

  4. A 40-million-year history of atmospheric CO(2).

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yi Ge; Pagani, Mark; Liu, Zhonghui; Bohaty, Steven M; Deconto, Robert

    2013-10-28

    The alkenone-pCO2 methodology has been used to reconstruct the partial pressure of ancient atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) for the past 45 million years of Earth's history (Middle Eocene to Pleistocene epochs). The present long-term CO2 record is a composite of data from multiple ocean localities that express a wide range of oceanographic and algal growth conditions that potentially bias CO2 results. In this study, we present a pCO2 record spanning the past 40 million years from a single marine locality, Ocean Drilling Program Site 925 located in the western equatorial Atlantic Ocean. The trends and absolute values of our new CO2 record site are broadly consistent with previously published multi-site alkenone-CO2 results. However, new pCO2 estimates for the Middle Miocene are notably higher than published records, with average pCO2 concentrations in the range of 400-500 ppm. Our results are generally consistent with recent pCO2 estimates based on boron isotope-pH data and stomatal index records, and suggest that CO2 levels were highest during a period of global warmth associated with the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (17-14 million years ago, Ma), followed by a decline in CO2 during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (approx. 14 Ma). Several relationships remain contrary to expectations. For example, benthic foraminiferal δ(18)O records suggest a period of deglaciation and/or high-latitude warming during the latest Oligocene (27-23 Ma) that, based on our results, occurred concurrently with a long-term decrease in CO2 levels. Additionally, a large positive δ(18)O excursion near the Oligocene-Miocene boundary (the Mi-1 event, approx. 23 Ma), assumed to represent a period of glacial advance and retreat on Antarctica, is difficult to explain by our CO2 record alone given what is known of Antarctic ice sheet history and the strong hysteresis of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet once it has grown to continental dimensions. We also demonstrate that in the

  5. Beaufortian stratigraphic plays in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska (NPRA)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Houseknecht, David W.

    2003-01-01

    The Beaufortian megasequence in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) includes Jurassic through lower Cretaceous (Neocomian) strata of the Kingak Shale and the overlying pebble shale unit. These strata are part of a composite total petroleum system involving hydrocarbons expelled from source rocks in three stratigraphic intervals, the Lower Jurassic part of the Kingak Shale, the Triassic Shublik Formation, and the Lower Cretaceous gamma-ray zone (GRZ) and associated strata. The potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Beaufortian megasequence in NPRA was assessed by defining eight plays (assessment units), two in lower Cretaceous (Neocomian) topset seismic facies, four in Upper Jurassic topset seismic facies, one in Lower Jurassic topset seismic facies, and one in Jurassic through lower Cretaceous (Neocomian) clinoform seismic facies. The Beaufortian Cretaceous Topset North Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 239 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 103 million barrels. The Beaufortian Cretaceous Topset North Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 1,162 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 405 billion cubic feet. The Beaufortian Cretaceous Topset South Play is estimated to contain between 635 (95-percent probability) and 4,004 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 2,130 billion cubic feet. No technically recoverable oil is assessed in the Beaufortian Cretaceous Topset South Play, as it lies at depths that are entirely in the gas window. The Beaufortian Upper Jurassic Topset Northeast Play is estimated to contain between 2,744 (95-percent probability) and 8,086 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil

  6. Electrofishing capture probability of smallmouth bass in streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

    2007-01-01

    Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  7. Equal prior probabilities: can one do any better?

    PubMed

    Biedermann, A; Taroni, F; Garbolino, P

    2007-10-25

    This paper discusses recommendations concerning the use of prior probabilities that underlie recent, but in no way novel, proposals of presenting scientific evidence in terms of posterior probabilities, in the context sometimes referred to as the 'full Bayes' approach'. A chief issue of this procedure is a proposal that--given the unavailability of case-specific circumstantial information--scientists should consider the prior probabilities of the propositions under which scientific evidence is evaluated as equal. The discussion presented here draws the reader's attention to the fact that the philosophical foundations of such a recommendation (in particular, attempted justifications through the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME)) are far more controversial than what is actually admitted by the advocates for their use in the theory and practice of forensic science. Invoking only basic assumptions and the mathematical rules of probability calculus, the authors of this paper propose an argument that shows that there can be other more feasible and defensible strategies for eliciting reasonable prior probabilities. It is solely demanded that the reasoner is willing to make up his mind seriously on certain standard issues of fairly general criminal cases, such as evidential relevance or the probability of a suspect's guilt. However, because these issues intimately pertain to the responsibility of the trier of the fact, it is argued here that scientists' attempts to define appropriate prior probabilities should continue to be considered as untenable for the need. PMID:17267153

  8. Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.

    PubMed

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2015-08-01

    We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning. PMID:25363706

  9. Two-slit experiment: quantum and classical probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2015-06-01

    Inter-relation between quantum and classical probability models is one of the most fundamental problems of quantum foundations. Nowadays this problem also plays an important role in quantum technologies, in quantum cryptography and the theory of quantum random generators. In this letter, we compare the viewpoint of Richard Feynman that the behavior of quantum particles cannot be described by classical probability theory with the viewpoint that quantum-classical inter-relation is more complicated (cf, in particular, with the tomographic model of quantum mechanics developed in detail by Vladimir Man'ko). As a basic example, we consider the two-slit experiment, which played a crucial role in quantum foundational debates at the beginning of quantum mechanics (QM). In particular, its analysis led Niels Bohr to the formulation of the principle of complementarity. First, we demonstrate that in complete accordance with Feynman's viewpoint, the probabilities for the two-slit experiment have the non-Kolmogorovian structure, since they violate one of basic laws of classical probability theory, the law of total probability (the heart of the Bayesian analysis). However, then we show that these probabilities can be embedded in a natural way into the classical (Kolmogorov, 1933) probability model. To do this, one has to take into account the randomness of selection of different experimental contexts, the joint consideration of which led Feynman to a conclusion about the non-classicality of quantum probability. We compare this embedding of non-Kolmogorovian quantum probabilities into the Kolmogorov model with well-known embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into Euclidean space (e.g., the Poincaré disk model for the Lobachvesky plane).

  10. A million peptide motifs for the molecular biologist.

    PubMed

    Tompa, Peter; Davey, Norman E; Gibson, Toby J; Babu, M Madan

    2014-07-17

    A molecular description of functional modules in the cell is the focus of many high-throughput studies in the postgenomic era. A large portion of biomolecular interactions in virtually all cellular processes is mediated by compact interaction modules, referred to as peptide motifs. Such motifs are typically less than ten residues in length, occur within intrinsically disordered regions, and are recognized and/or posttranslationally modified by structured domains of the interacting partner. In this review, we suggest that there might be over a million instances of peptide motifs in the human proteome. While this staggering number suggests that peptide motifs are numerous and the most understudied functional module in the cell, it also holds great opportunities for new discoveries. PMID:25038412

  11. ED case managers save $4.5 million.

    PubMed

    2011-08-01

    Emergency department case managers at Lee Memorial Health System in Fort Myers, FL saved more than $4.5 million by ensuring that patients were in the right status and transferring patients who did not meet admission criteria to a more appropriate level of care. Case managers and social workers cover the emergency department at peak hours, seven days a week. Case managers screen patients for admission criteria and make sure admission orders are complete and correct. Case managers and social workers coordinate community services and placement for patients who don't meet admission criteria. Social workers intervene when there are concerns about abuse and neglect, and they facilitate placement to other acute care facilities. PMID:21789904

  12. Manufacturing company faces $8 million penalty for alleged RCRA violations

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    On October 7, 1994, EPA filed a complaint against Eastman Kodak Company for alleged RCRA violations at Kodak`s manufacturing and hazardous waste treatment, storage, and disposal facilities located in Rochester, New York. A proposed consent decree accompanied the complaint filed in the US District Court for the Western District of New York (United States v. Eastman Kodak Company, Dockett Number: 94-CV-6503T). According to the terms of the proposed consent decree, Kodak is to pay an $8 million civil penalty by implementing six environmental projects. The company must also upgrade its industrial sewer system and bring all operations into compliance with RCRA regulations. This action indicates EPA`s intent to promote waste reduction and pollution prevention in addition to requiring compliance at large, aging manufacturing facilities.

  13. Twitter classification model: the ABC of two million fitness tweets.

    PubMed

    Vickey, Theodore A; Ginis, Kathleen Martin; Dabrowski, Maciej

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of this project was to design and test data collection and management tools that can be used to study the use of mobile fitness applications and social networking within the context of physical activity. This project was conducted over a 6-month period and involved collecting publically shared Twitter data from five mobile fitness apps (Nike+, RunKeeper, MyFitnessPal, Endomondo, and dailymile). During that time, over 2.8 million tweets were collected, processed, and categorized using an online tweet collection application and a customized JavaScript. Using the grounded theory, a classification model was developed to categorize and understand the types of information being shared by application users. Our data show that by tracking mobile fitness app hashtags, a wealth of information can be gathered to include but not limited to daily use patterns, exercise frequency, location-based workouts, and overall workout sentiment. PMID:24073182

  14. A genomic view of 500 million years of cnidarian evolution

    PubMed Central

    Steele, Robert E.; David, Charles N.; Technau, Ulrich

    2010-01-01

    Cnidarians (corals, anemones, jellyfish, and hydras) are a diverse group of animals of interest to evolutionary biologists, ecologists, and developmental biologists. With the publication of the genome sequences of Hydra and Nematostella, whose last common ancestor was the stem cnidarian, we are beginning to see the genomic underpinnings of cnidarian biology. Cnidarians are known for the remarkable plasticity of their morphology and life cycles. This plasticity is reflected in the Hydra and Nematostella genomes, which differ to an exceptional degree in size, base composition, transposable element content, and gene conservation. We now know what cnidarian genomes are capable of doing given 500 million years; the next challenge is to understand how this genomic history has led to the striking diversity we see in cnidarians. PMID:21047698

  15. Crossing probability for directed polymers in random media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Luca, Andrea; Le Doussal, Pierre

    2015-10-01

    We study the probability that two directed polymers in the same random potential do not intersect. We use the replica method to map the problem onto the attractive Lieb-Liniger model with generalized statistics between particles. Employing both the nested Bethe ansatz and known formula from MacDonald processes, we obtain analytical expressions for the first few moments of this probability and compare them to a numerical simulation of a discrete model at high temperature. From these observations, several large time properties of the noncrossing probabilities are conjectured. Extensions of our formalism to more general observables are discussed.

  16. Fitness Probability Distribution of Bit-Flip Mutation.

    PubMed

    Chicano, Francisco; Sutton, Andrew M; Whitley, L Darrell; Alba, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Bit-flip mutation is a common mutation operator for evolutionary algorithms applied to optimize functions over binary strings. In this paper, we develop results from the theory of landscapes and Krawtchouk polynomials to exactly compute the probability distribution of fitness values of a binary string undergoing uniform bit-flip mutation. We prove that this probability distribution can be expressed as a polynomial in p, the probability of flipping each bit. We analyze these polynomials and provide closed-form expressions for an easy linear problem (Onemax), and an NP-hard problem, MAX-SAT. We also discuss a connection of the results with runtime analysis. PMID:24885680

  17. Quantum correlations in terms of neutrino oscillation probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alok, Ashutosh Kumar; Banerjee, Subhashish; Uma Sankar, S.

    2016-08-01

    Neutrino oscillations provide evidence for the mode entanglement of neutrino mass eigenstates in a given flavour eigenstate. Given this mode entanglement, it is pertinent to consider the relation between the oscillation probabilities and other quantum correlations. In this work, we show that all the well-known quantum correlations, such as the Bell's inequality, are directly related to the neutrino oscillation probabilities. The results of the neutrino oscillation experiments, which measure the neutrino survival probability to be less than unity, imply Bell's inequality violation.

  18. New methodology for assessing the probability of contaminating Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    North, D. W.; Judd, B. R.; Pezier, J. P.

    1974-01-01

    Methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will be contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. The present NASA methods are extended to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Different types of microbial release are distinguished, and for each release mechanism a probability of growth is computed. Using this new methodology, an assessment was carried out for the 1975 Viking landings on Mars. The resulting probability of contamination for each Viking lander is 6 x 10 to the -6 power, and is amenable to revision as additional information becomes available.

  19. Standard quantum mechanics featuring probabilities instead of wave functions

    SciTech Connect

    Manko, V. I. Manko, O. V.

    2006-06-15

    A new formulation of quantum mechanics (probability representation) is discussed. In this representation, a quantum state is described by a standard positive definite probability distribution (tomogram) rather than by a wave function. An unambiguous relation (analog of Radon transformation) between the density operator and a tomogram is constructed both for continuous coordinates and for spin variables. A novel feature of a state, tomographic entropy, is considered, and its connection with von Neumann entropy is discussed. A one-to-one map of quantum observables (Hermitian operators) on positive probability distributions is found.

  20. Origin of probabilities and their application to the multiverse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albrecht, Andreas; Phillips, Daniel

    2014-12-01

    We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We comment on the general implications of this view, and specifically question the application of purely classical probabilities to cosmology in cases where key questions are known to have no quantum answer. We argue that the ideas developed here may offer a way out of the notorious measure problems of eternal inflation.