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Sample records for 5-year survival estimates

  1. Trends in 5-year survival rates among breast cancer patients by hormone receptor status and stage

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Lu; Linden, Hannah M.; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Li, Christopher I.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Improvement in breast cancer survival has been observed in recent decades in the U.S., but it is unclear if similar survival gains are consistent across breast cancer subtypes, especially with regards to more advanced stages of the disease. Methods Data were from 13 population-based cancer registries participating in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, consisting of women between 20–79 years of age diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 1992 and 2008. 2-year (1992–2008) and 5-year (1992–2006) breast cancer cause-specific survival rates were calculated and stratified by estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) status, stage and race. Annual percent changes in survival rates were assessed. Results From 1992 through 1998–1999, 5-year and 2-year cause specific survival rates significantly improved across ER+/PR+, ER−/PR− and ER+/PR− subtypes, with an annual increase ranging from 0.5%–1.0%. From 1998–1999 to 2006, different patterns were observed by ER/PR subtypes with survival rates slightly improving for ER+/PR+, continuing to improve at a rate of 0.5% per year for ER−/PR−, and dropping 0.3% annually for ER+/PR− No significant survival gains were experienced by patients with ER−/PR+ cancer during the study period. In terms of advanced diseases, greatest annual increases in survival rates were seen for patients with stage III–IV ER+/PR+ and ER−/PR− tumors but less progress was observed for advanced ER+/PR− breast cancers. Conclusion Steady improvements in survival rates for breast cancer have been achieved over the past several decades. However, 5-year survival rates for stage IV disease remained dismally below 20% for most ER/PR subtypes. PMID:25164974

  2. The impact factors on 5-year survival rate in patients operated with oral cancer

    PubMed Central

    Geum, Dong-Ho; Roh, Young-Chea; Yoon, Sang-Yong; Kim, Hyo-Geon; Lee, Jung-Han; Song, Jae-Min; Lee, Jae-Yeol; Hwang, Dae-Seok; Kim, Yong-Deok; Shin, Sang-Hun; Chung, In-Kyo

    2013-01-01

    Objectives The purpose of this study is to analyze clinical impact factors on the survival rate, and to acquire basic clinical data for the diagnosis of oral cancer, for a determination of the treatment plan with long-term survival in oral cancer patients. Materials and Methods Through a retrospective review of the medical records, the factors for long-term survival rate were analyzed. Thirty-seven patients, among patient database with oral cancer treated in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery at Pusan National University Hospital within a period from March 1998 to March 2008, were selected within the study criteria and were followed-up for more than 5 years. The analyzed factors were gender, age, drinking, smoking, primary tumor site, type of cancer, TNM stage, recurrence of affected region, and metastasis of cervical lymph node. The 5-year survival rate on the impact factors was calculated statistically using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results By classification of clinical TNM at the 1st visit, there were 11 (29.7%) cases for stage I, 11 (29.7%) cases for stage II, 3 (8.1%) cases for stage III, and 12 (32.5%) cases for stage IV. The 5-year survival rate of total oral cancer patients after the operation were 75.7%, pathological TNM stage related 5-year survival rate were as follows: stage I 90.0%, stage II 81.8%, stage III 100% and stage IV 45.5%; in which the survival rate difference by each stage was significantly observed. The recurrence of cervical lymph node was the significant impact factor for the survival rate, because only 30.0% the survival rate in recurrent cases existed. During the follow-up, there were 15 (40.5%) patients with confirmed recurrence, and the 5-year survival rate of these patients was decreased as 46.7%. Conclusion The classification of clinical and pathological TNM stage, local recurrence after surgery, and metastasis of cervical lymph node after surgery were analyzed as the 3 most significant factors. PMID:24471047

  3. Long-term survival with diaphanospondylodysostosis (DSD): survival to 5 years and further phenotypic characteristics.

    PubMed

    Scottoline, Brian; Rosenthal, Scott; Keisari, Rami; Kirpekar, Rashmi; Angell, Cathy; Wallerstein, Robert

    2012-06-01

    We report on the natural history of diaphanospondylodysostosis (DSD) in the longest known survivor. DSD is a rare form of autosomal recessive vertebral dysotosis recently identified to be caused by a mutation in the BMPER gene. This condition is characterized by absent or severely delayed ossification of vertebral bodies, short broad thorax, short neck, protuberant abdomen, marked respiratory insufficiency, and normal appendicular skeleton. It is one of a number of spinal dysostoses, which are a heterogeneous group of axial skeletal malformations occurring during blastogenesis with continued evolution after birth. Significant medical intervention and at-home support contributed to the long-term survival of our patient. The patient had tracheomalacia, which resulted in respiratory insufficiency with thoracic insufficiency syndrome (TIS). Tracheostomy and vertical expandable prosthetic titanium rib (VEPTR) insertion operations ameliorated his symptoms. In addition, comprehensive physical and occupational therapy was performed due to chronic hypotonia. A consistent feature of all described DSD cases thus far are renal findings of dysplasia, nephrogenic rests or nephroblastomatosis, and/or cysts. The patient's renal cysts were monitored with serial ultrasounds at approximately 6-month intervals. The patient was diagnosed with bilateral renal cysts by ultrasound as a neonate, with eventual diagnosis at approximately 20 months of age with nephroblastoma suggesting this maybe an intrinsic part of DSD. The lack of other cases with nephroblastoma is likely related to the previously reported short period of survival.

  4. Disease Management Project Breast Cancer in Hesse – 5-Year Survival Data

    PubMed Central

    Jackisch, C.; Funk, A.; König, K.; Lubbe, D.; Misselwitz, B.; Wagner, U.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: The Disease Management Project Breast Cancer (DMP Breast Cancer) was first launched in Hesse in 2004. The project is supported by the health insurance companies in Hesse and the Professional Association of Gynaecologists in Hesse. The aim is to offer structured treatment programmes to all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Hesse by creating intersectoral cooperations between coordinating clinics, associated hospitals and gynaecologists in private practice who registered in the DMP programme. Method: Between 1 January 2005 and 30 June 2011, 13 973 women were enrolled in the DMP programme. Results: After data cleansing, survival rates were calculated for a total of 11 214 women. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 86.3 %; survival rates according to tumour stage on presentation were 92.2 % (pT1) and 82.3 % (pT2), respectively. The impact of steroid hormone receptor status on survival (87.8 % for receptor-positive cancers vs. 78.9 % for receptor-negative cancers) and of age at first diagnosis on survival (≤ 35 years = 91 %) were calculated. Conclusion: The project showed that intersectoral cooperation led to significant improvements in the quality of treatment over time, as measured by quality indicators and outcomes after treatment. PMID:24882878

  5. Diabetic foot reconstruction using free flaps increases 5-year-survival rate.

    PubMed

    Oh, Tae Suk; Lee, Ho Seung; Hong, Joon Pio

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of the diabetic foot reconstructed with free flaps and analyse the preoperative risk factors. This study reviews 121 cases of reconstructed diabetic foot in 113 patients over 9 years (average follow-up of 53.2 months). Patients' age ranged from 26 to 78 years (average, 54.6 years). Free flaps used were anterolateral thigh (ALT, 90), superficial circumflex iliac artery perforator (SCIP, 20), anteromedial thigh (AMT, 5), upper medial thigh (UMT, 3), and other perforator free flaps (3). Correlation between the surgical outcome and preoperative risk factors were analysed using logistic regression model. Total loss was seen in 10 cases and 111 free-tissue transfers were successful (flap survival rate of 91.7%). During follow-up, limb was eventually lost in 17 patients and overall limb salvage rate was 84.9% and the 5-year survival was 86.8%. Correlation between flap loss and 14 preoperative risk factors (computed tomography (CT) angiogram showing intact numbers of major vessels, history of previous angioplasty, peripheral arterial disease (PAD), heart problem, chronic renal failure (CRF), American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification system, smoking, body mass index (BMI), HBA1c, lymphocyte count, ankle-brachial index (ABI), osteomyelitis, C-reactive protein (CRP) level and whether taking immunosuppressive agents) were analysed. Significant odds ratio were seen in patients who underwent lower extremity angioplasties (odds ratio: 17.590, p<0.001), with PAD (odds ratio: 10.212, p=0.032) and taking immunosuppressive agents after kidney transplantation (odds ratio: 4.857, p<0.041). Diabetic foot reconstruction using free flaps has a high chance for success and significantly increases the 5-year survival rate. Risk factors such as PAD, history of angioplasties in the extremity and using immunosuppressive agents after transplant may increase the chance for flap loss.

  6. Status after 5 Years of Survival Compliance Testing in the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS)

    SciTech Connect

    Skalski, John R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Ham, Kenneth D.; Ploskey, Gene R.; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Colotelo, Alison H.; Carlson, Thomas J.; Woodley, Christa M.; Eppard, M. Brad; Hockersmith, Eric E.

    2016-06-27

    Survival studies of juvenile salmonids implanted with acoustic tags have been conducted at hydroelectric dams within the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) in the Columbia and Snake rivers between 2010 and 2014 to assess compliance with dam passage survival standards stipulated in the 2008 Biological Opinion (BiOp). For juvenile salmonids migrating downstream in the spring, dam passage survival defined as survival from the upstream dam face to the tailrace mixing zone must be ≥96% and for summer migrants, ≥93%, and estimated with a standard error ≤1.5% (i.e., 95% confidence interval of ±3%). A total of 29 compliance tests have been conducted at 6 of 8 FCRPS main-stem dams, using over 109,000 acoustic-tagged salmonid smolts. Of these 29 compliance studies, 23 met the survival standards and 26 met the precision requirements. Of the 6 dams evaluated to date, individual survival estimates range from 0.9597 to 0.9868 for yearling Chinook Salmon, 0.9534 to 0.9952 for steelhead, and 0.9076 to 0.9789 for subyearling Chinook Salmon. These investigations suggest the large capital investment over the last 20 years to improve juvenile salmon passage through the FCRPS dams has been beneficial.

  7. Microscopy image analysis of p63 immunohistochemically stained laryngeal cancer lesions for predicting patient 5-year survival.

    PubMed

    Ninos, Konstantinos; Kostopoulos, Spiros; Kalatzis, Ioannis; Sidiropoulos, Konstantinos; Ravazoula, Panagiota; Sakellaropoulos, George; Panayiotakis, George; Economou, George; Cavouras, Dionisis

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to design a microscopy image analysis (MIA) system for predicting the 5-year survival of patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma, employing histopathology images of lesions, which had been immunohistochemically (IHC) stained for p63 expression. Biopsy materials from 42 patients, with verified laryngeal cancer and follow-up, were selected from the archives of the University Hospital of Patras, Greece. Twenty six patients had survived more than 5 years and 16 less than 5 years after the first diagnosis. Histopathology images were IHC stained for p63 expression. Images were first processed by a segmentation method for isolating the p63-expressed nuclei. Seventy-seven features were evaluated regarding texture, shape, and physical topology of nuclei, p63 staining, and patient-specific data. Those features, the probabilistic neural network classifier, the leave-one-out (LOO), and the bootstrap cross-validation methods, were used to design the MIA-system for assessing the 5-year survival of patients with laryngeal cancer. MIA-system accuracy was about 90 % and 85 %, employing the LOO and the Bootstrap methods, respectively. The image texture of p63-expressed nuclei appeared coarser and contained more edges in the 5-year non-survivor group. These differences were at a statistically significant level (p < 0.05). In conclusion, this study has proposed an MIA-system that may be of assistance to physicians, as a second opinion tool in assessing the 5-year survival of patients with laryngeal cancer, and it has revealed useful information regarding differences in nuclei texture between 5-year survivors and non-survivors.

  8. Survival of rock-colonizing organisms after 1.5 years in outer space.

    PubMed

    Onofri, Silvano; de la Torre, Rosa; de Vera, Jean-Pierre; Ott, Sieglinde; Zucconi, Laura; Selbmann, Laura; Scalzi, Giuliano; Venkateswaran, Kasthuri J; Rabbow, Elke; Sánchez Iñigo, Francisco J; Horneck, Gerda

    2012-05-01

    Cryptoendolithic microbial communities and epilithic lichens have been considered as appropriate candidates for the scenario of lithopanspermia, which proposes a natural interplanetary exchange of organisms by means of rocks that have been impact ejected from their planet of origin. So far, the hardiness of these terrestrial organisms in the severe and hostile conditions of space has not been tested over extended periods of time. A first long-term (1.5 years) exposure experiment in space was performed with a variety of rock-colonizing eukaryotic organisms at the International Space Station on board the European EXPOSE-E facility. Organisms were selected that are especially adapted to cope with the environmental extremes of their natural habitats. It was found that some-but not all-of those most robust microbial communities from extremely hostile regions on Earth are also partially resistant to the even more hostile environment of outer space, including high vacuum, temperature fluctuation, the full spectrum of extraterrestrial solar electromagnetic radiation, and cosmic ionizing radiation. Although the reported experimental period of 1.5 years in space is not comparable with the time spans of thousands or millions of years believed to be required for lithopanspermia, our data provide first evidence of the differential hardiness of cryptoendolithic communities in space.

  9. Erythrocyte survival following intraoperative autotransfusion in spinal surgery: an in vivo comparative study and 5-year update

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, J.M.; Flynn, J.C.; Bierman, A.H.

    1986-11-01

    A 5-year prospective study of intraoperative blood transfusion in 239 patients, most of whom had major spinal surgery, has been completed. Autotransfusion is safe, practical, and it reduces donor blood requirements and total blood loss by 50%. It eliminates host versus graft reactions and disease transmission. In 33 patients having major spinal surgery, the in vivo survival of autologous, homologous, and processed red blood cells (RBC) using the Cell Saver System were compared. The RBC survival studies were performed using chromium-51 isotope labeling technique. The long-term survival of processed RBCs was normal over a 30-day period. There was no significant difference in the survival rate of the three groups studied.

  10. Disease Management Project Breast Cancer in Hesse - 5-Year Survival Data: Successful Model of Intersectoral Communication for Quality Assurance.

    PubMed

    Jackisch, C; Funk, A; König, K; Lubbe, D; Misselwitz, B; Wagner, U

    2014-03-01

    Introduction: The Disease Management Project Breast Cancer (DMP Breast Cancer) was first launched in Hesse in 2004. The project is supported by the health insurance companies in Hesse and the Professional Association of Gynaecologists in Hesse. The aim is to offer structured treatment programmes to all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Hesse by creating intersectoral cooperations between coordinating clinics, associated hospitals and gynaecologists in private practice who registered in the DMP programme. Method: Between 1 January 2005 and 30 June 2011, 13 973 women were enrolled in the DMP programme. Results: After data cleansing, survival rates were calculated for a total of 11 214 women. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 86.3 %; survival rates according to tumour stage on presentation were 92.2 % (pT1) and 82.3 % (pT2), respectively. The impact of steroid hormone receptor status on survival (87.8 % for receptor-positive cancers vs. 78.9 % for receptor-negative cancers) and of age at first diagnosis on survival (≤ 35 years = 91 %) were calculated. Conclusion: The project showed that intersectoral cooperation led to significant improvements in the quality of treatment over time, as measured by quality indicators and outcomes after treatment.

  11. Long term survival of radiotherapy for esophageal cancer: analysis of 1136 patients surviving for more than 5 years

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Z.Y.; Gu, X.; Zhao, S.

    1983-12-01

    One thousand one hundred and thirty-six patients surviving for more than five years after radiotherapy were studied. The important prognostic factors are: lesion less than 5 cm in length, lesion located in the upper-third segment and lesion that is radiosensitive. The radiation dose given to long term survivors varies greatly, i.e., 2700 to 9300 rad. Yet, for the sensitive type of lesion, doses lower than 5000 rad could also effect a cure. The delivery of an optimum dose determined by serial examinations during radiotherapy could improve the result of treatment. For local recurrent lesions, the value of a second course of radiation is extremely limited and surgery is the only means to offer a cure. For metastasis in the lymph nodes, radiation offers some hope of cure, although the long term outcome may not be satisfactory. For second primary cancer of the esophagus, aggressive radiation still gives encouraging results.

  12. A practice-based clinical evaluation of the survival and success of metal-ceramic and zirconia molar crowns: 5-year results.

    PubMed

    Rinke, S; Kramer, K; Bürgers, R; Roediger, M

    2016-02-01

    This practice-based study evaluates the survival and success of conventionally luted metal-ceramic and zirconia molar crowns fabricated by using a prolonged cooling period for the veneering porcelain. Fifty-three patients were treated from 07/2008 to 07/2009 with either metal-ceramic crowns (MCC) or zirconia crowns (ZC). Forty-five patients (26 female) with 91 restorations (obser-vational period: 64.0 ± 4.8 months) participated in a clinical follow-up examination and were included in the study. Estimated cumulative survival (ECSv), success (ECSc) and veneering ceramic success (ECVCSc) were calculated (Kaplan-Meier) and analysed by the crown fabrication technique and the position of the restoration (Cox regression model) (P < 0.05). Five complete failures (MCC: 2, ZC: 3) were recorded (5-year ECSv: MCC: 97.6%, (95% confidence interval (95%-CI): [93%; 100%]/ZC: 94.0%, (95%-CI): [87%; 100%]). Of the MCCs (n = 41), 85.0%, [95%-CI: (77%; 96%)] remained event-free, whereas the ECSc for the ZCs (n = 50) was 74.3% (95%-CI): [61%; 87%]. No significant differences in ECSv (P = 0.51), ECSc (P = 0.43) and ECVCSc (P = 0.36) were detected between the two fabrication techniques. Restorations placed on terminal abutments (n = 44) demonstrated a significantly lower ECVCSc (P = 0.035), (5-year VCF-rate: 14.8%) than crowns placed on tooth-neighboured abutments (n = 47), (5-year VCF-rate: 4.3%). In the present study, zirconia molar crowns demonstrated a 5-year ECSv, ECSc and ECVCSc comparable to MCCs. Irrespective of the fabrication technique, crowns on terminal abutments bear a significantly increased risk for VCFs. Clinical investigations with an increased number of restorations are needed.

  13. Virtual HDR CyberKnife SBRT for Localized Prostatic Carcinoma: 5-Year Disease-Free Survival and Toxicity Observations

    PubMed Central

    Fuller, Donald Blake; Naitoh, John; Mardirossian, George

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Prostate stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) may substantially recapitulate the dose distribution of high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy, representing an externally delivered “Virtual HDR” treatment method. Herein, we present 5-year outcomes from a cohort of consecutively treated virtual HDR SBRT prostate cancer patients. Methods: Seventy-nine patients were treated from 2006 to 2009, 40 low-risk, and 39 intermediate-risk, under IRB-approved clinical trial, to 38 Gy in four fractions. The planning target volume (PTV) included prostate plus a 2-mm volume expansion in all directions, with selective use of a 5-mm prostate-to-PTV expansion and proximal seminal vesicle coverage in intermediate-risk patients, to better cover potential extraprostatic disease; rectal PTV margin reduced to zero in all cases. The prescription dose covered >95% of the PTV (V100 ≥95%), with a minimum 150% PTV dose escalation to create “HDR-like” PTV dose distribution. Results: Median pre-SBRT PSA level of 5.6 ng/mL decreased to 0.05 ng/mL 5 years out and 0.02 ng/mL 6 years out. At least one PSA bounce was seen in 55 patients (70%) but only 3 of them subsequently relapsed, biochemical-relapse-free survival was 100 and 92% for low-risk and intermediate-risk patients, respectively, by ASTRO definition (98 and 92% by Phoenix definition). Local relapse did not occur, distant metastasis-free survival was 100 and 95% by risk-group, and disease-specific survival was 100%. Acute and late grade 2 GU toxicity incidence was 10 and 9%, respectively; with 6% late grade 3 GU toxicity. Acute urinary retention did not occur. Acute and late grade 2 GI toxicity was 0 and 1%, respectively, with no grade 3 or higher toxicity. Of patient’s potent pre-SBRT, 65% remained so at 5 years. Conclusion: Virtual HDR prostate SBRT creates a very low PSA nadir, a high rate of 5-year disease-free survival and an acceptable toxicity incidence, with results closely resembling those reported

  14. Survival and other clinical outcomes of maintenance hemodialysis patients in Taiwan: a 5-year multicenter follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Chen, Huan-Sheng; Cheng, Chun-Ting; Hou, Chun-Cheng; Liou, Hung-Hsiang; Lim, Paik-Seong

    2014-10-01

    The increasing aging and diabetes mellitus (DM) patients in dialysis population make the quality maintenance of dialysis an imperative issue. Recently, an increasing number of dialysis centers were run by private dialysis providers, many of which apply quality assurance programs and performance management systems to dialysis care. We studied patients in dialysis facilities in Taiwan run by a private chain to see clinical outcomes of centers operating under these systemic strategies. Hemodialysis patients from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2012 in 25 dialysis facilities in Taiwan, which received the management and consultation from a dialysis service provider, NephroCare (NC), were included. Data pivotal to quality of dialysis were analyzed. During a 5-year interval, 5161 hemodialysis patients were included. For volume control, the proportion of patients with weight gain ≥4.5% decreases from 41.7% to 30.2%. Mean Kt/V is 1.74 ± 0.28. Mean albumin level is 3.92 ± 0.38 g/dL. Patients with phosphate <5.5 mg/dL is up to 71.8%. The mean hemoglobin level is 10.70 ± 1.40 g/dL. More than 80% of patients have adequate iron status. Further, 73% of patients use native arteriovenous fistula. Hospitalization-free survival rate was 56% at the fifth year. Patient survival rate at the fifth year was 66.4%. Overall clinical performances were maintained very stable in NC facilities from this temporal data analysis. The hospitalization and survival rate also compare favorably with those reported internationally. These results warrant further studies to justify the application of this kind of quality assurance programs and performance management systems in dialysis care.

  15. Drifter-based estimate of the 5 year dispersal of Fukushima-derived radionuclides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rypina, I. I.; Jayne, S. R.; Yoshida, S.; Macdonald, A. M.; Buesseler, K.

    2014-11-01

    Employing some 40 years of North Pacific drifter-track observations from the Global Drifter Program database, statistics defining the horizontal spread of radionuclides from Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean are investigated over a time scale of 5 years. A novel two-iteration method is employed to make the best use of the available drifter data. Drifter-based predictions of the temporal progression of the leading edge of the radionuclide distribution are compared to observed radionuclide concentrations from research surveys occupied in 2012 and 2013. Good agreement between the drifter-based predictions and the observations is found.

  16. Pathologic complete response and disease-free survival are not surrogate endpoints for 5-year survival in rectal cancer: an analysis of 22 randomized trials

    PubMed Central

    Borgonovo, Karen; Cabiddu, Mary; Ghilardi, Mara; Lonati, Veronica; Barni, Sandro

    2017-01-01

    Background We performed a literature-based analysis of randomized clinical trials to assess the pathologic complete response (pCR) (ypT0N0 after neoadjuvant therapy) and 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) as potential surrogate endpoints for 5-year overall survival (OS) in rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant (chemo)radiotherapy (CT)RT. Methods A systematic literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, the Web of Science, SCOPUS, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library was performed. Treatment effects on 3-year DFS and 5-year OS were expressed as rates of patients alive (%), and those on pCR as differences in pCR rates (∆pCR%). A weighted regression analysis was performed at individual- and trial-level to test the association between treatment effects on surrogate (∆pCR% and ∆3yDFS) and the main clinical outcome (∆5yOS). Results Twenty-two trials involving 10,050 patients, were included in the analysis. The individual level surrogacy showed that the pCR% and 3-year DFS were poorly correlated with 5-year OS (R=0.52; 95% CI, 0.31–0.91; P=0.002; and R=0.60; 95% CI, 0.36–1; P=0.002). The trial-level surrogacy analysis confirmed that the two treatment effects on surrogates (∆pCR% and ∆3yDFS) are not strong surrogates for treatment effects on 5-year OS % (R=0.2; 95% CI, −0.29–0.78; P=0.5 and R=0.64; 95% CI, 0.29–1; P=0.06). These findings were confirmed in neoadjuvant CTRT studies but not in phase III trials were 3-year DFS could still represent a valid surrogate. Conclusions This analysis does not support the use of pCR and 3-year DFS% as appropriate surrogate endpoints for 5-year OS% in patients with rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy. PMID:28280607

  17. Factors influencing survival in hemodialysis patients aged older than 75 years: 2.5-year outcome study.

    PubMed

    Chauveau, P; Combe, C; Laville, M; Fouque, D; Azar, R; Cano, N; Canaud, B; Roth, H; Leverve, X; Aparicio, M

    2001-05-01

    The incidence of malnutrition is widely held to be greater in the elderly, but this specific factor has not been extensively studied in elderly dialysis patients. In a 30-month follow-up prospective study, we evaluated the role of nutrition on the outcome of 290 stable hemodialysis (HD) outpatients aged older than 75 years followed up in 20 French HD centers (167 men, 123 women; age, 79.8 +/- 4.2 years; previous time on dialysis, 41 +/- 38 months). On the same day in January 1996, predialysis and postdialysis blood samples were collected according to recommended procedures for dialysis quantification. Normalized protein catabolic rate, dialysis adequacy parameters, and estimation of lean body mass (LBM; expressed as observed/expected LBM values [obs/exp LBM]) were computed from predialysis and postdialysis urea and creatinine levels. Overall survival rates were 80% and 65% after 1 and 2 years of follow-up, respectively, and were significantly less in patients with the lower quartile of obs/exp LBM. In univariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model, survival was significantly influenced by age, albumin level, prealbumin level, body mass index, and diabetes, but not by sex, Kt/V, duration of dialysis, cholesterol level, hemoglobin level, or obs/exp LBM. In multivariate analysis, no variable remained significant. Cardiovascular mortality accounted for 52.1% of the patient deaths. We conclude that in elderly HD patients, malnutrition influences overall survival despite adequate dialysis treatment.

  18. Estimated Cerebrospina Fluid Pressure and the 5-Year Incidence of Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma in a Chinese Population

    PubMed Central

    Zhong, Hua; Tao, Yijin; Yuan, Yuansheng; Pan, Chen-Wei

    2016-01-01

    Purpose We aim to assess the longitudinal association between baseline estimated cerebrospinal fluid pressure (CSFP) and 5-year incident primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) in a population-based sample of Bai Chinese living in rural China. Methods Among the 2133 Bai Chinese aged 50 years or older who had participated in the baseline examination of the Yunnan Minority Eye Study, 1520 (71.3%) attended the follow-up examination after five years and 1485 were at risk of developing POAG. Participants underwent comprehensive ophthalmic examinations at both baseline and follow-up surveys. CSFP in mmHg was estimated as 0.55 × body mass index (kg/m2) + 0.16 × diastolic blood pressure (mmHg)-0.18 × age (years)-1.91. Glaucoma was defined using the International Society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology Classification criteria. Multivariate logistic regression models were established to determine the association between baseline CSFP and incident POAG. Results After a mean follow-up time of 5 years, 19 new cases of POAG were detected, with an incidence rate of 1.3% (95% confidence interval, 0.7–1.9%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for age, gender, education, intraocular pressure, central corneal thickness, hypertension and diabetes, no significant associations, nor any trends, were evident between baseline estimated CSFP and incident POAG. The association between estimated CSFP per mmHg increase in baseline and 5-year incidence of POAG was also non-significant, with adjusted relative risk of 0.96 (P = 0.11) in multivariate analysis. Conclusions This longitudinal cohort study does not support previously observed cross-sectional association between estimated CSFP and POAG in population-based studies. PMID:27611879

  19. The 5-year survival following the marginal resection of a primary leiomyosarcoma of the distal femur and a stump fracture.

    PubMed

    Plath, J; Gurk, S; Strophal, G; Johnson, M; Jansson, V

    2001-09-01

    In this case, we present a 5-year follow-up of a 3-fault-affected primary leiomyosarcoma of the distal femur (spontaneous fracture treated by osteosynthesis; marginal resection; stump fracture after adequate trauma) with an extended local recurrence but without metastasis.

  20. Alternative endpoints to the 5-year overall survival and locoregional control for nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A retrospective analysis of 2,450 patients.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chen; Yi, Wei; Gao, Jin; Li, Xiao-Hui; Shen, Lu-Jun; Li, Bo-Fei; Tu, Zi-Wei; Tao, Ya-Lan; Jiang, Chang-Bin; Xia, Yun-Fei

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate alternative endpoints to the 5-year overall survival (OS) and locoregional control (LRC) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). A total of 2,450 NPC patients were enrolled in this study, including 1,842 patients treated with two-dimensional (2D) radiotherapy (RT), 451 treated with 3D conformal RT (CRT) and 157 treated with intensity-modulated RT (IMRT). We sequentially calculated the 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-year survival rates using a life table and compared these with the 5-year survival rate using the McNemar method, with the survival rate of the last indifferent comparison being considered as the alternative endpoint. For 2D RT, stage I patients exhibited similar survival rates at 1 and 5 years (98.9 vs. 94.4%, respectively; P=0.125 for both OS and LRC); stage N3 patients exhibited similar 4-year OS (55.2 vs. 53.5%; P=1.000) and 2-year LRC (78.3 vs. 71.2%; P=0.125) to the 5-year OS and LRC. For IMRT, the 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year OS and LRC rates in stage I/II NPC patients were 100, 98, 96, 94 and 94% for OS and 100, 98, 96, 96 and 96% for LRC, respectively. No significant differences were observed for all the comparisons. For stage III/IV NPC patients treated with IMRT, the 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year rates were 99.1, 96.3, 92.5, 88.8 and 85.0% for OS and 98.1, 97.2, 95.3, 90.7 and 89.7% for LRC, respectively. Only the 4-year OS and LRC rates were indifferent from those at 5 years (P=0.125 for OS and P=1.00 for LRC). In conclusion, the 1-year OS and LRC for stage I NPC patients treated with 2D RT or stage I/II NPC patients treated with IMRT, the 4-year OS and 2-year LRC for stage N3 NPC patients treated with 2D RT and the 4-year OS and LRC for stage III/IV NPC patients treated with IMRT were determined as the alternative endpoints to the 5-year OS and LRC for NPC patients.

  1. 5-Year Survival in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in a Randomized, Phase III Trial of Fludarabine Plus Cyclophosphamide With or Without Oblimersen

    PubMed Central

    O'Brien, Susan; Moore, Joseph O.; Boyd, Thomas E.; Larratt, Loree M.; Skotnicki, Aleksander B.; Koziner, Benjamin; Chanan-Khan, Asher A.; Seymour, John F.; Gribben, John; Itri, Loretta M.; Rai, Kanti R.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose A randomized trial of oblimersen plus fludarabine/cyclophosphamide (OBL-FC; n = 120) versus FC (n = 121) was conducted in patients with relapsed/refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The primary end point was met: the complete response (CR) rate, defined as complete or nodular partial response, was significantly greater with OBL-FC than with FC (17% v 7%; P = .025). Among patients with CR, response duration was significantly longer with OBL-FC than with FC (median not reached; > 36 months v 22 months; P = .03). Maximum benefit with OBL-FC, including a four-fold increase in CR rate and a survival benefit with 3 years of follow-up (hazard ratio, 0.53; P = .05), was observed in patients with fludarabine-sensitive disease. We evaluated long-term survival and poststudy CLL therapy among all randomly assigned patients. Methods Poststudy CLL treatment information was collected. Patients were observed for survival for up to 5 years from the date of random assignment. Results Poststudy CLL treatment was balanced between arms. Intent-to-treat analysis of 5-year survival showed no significant between-treatment difference (hazard ratio, 0.87; P = .34). Among the greater than 40% of patients with complete or partial remission, a significant 5-year survival benefit was observed with OBL-FC (hazard ratio, 0.60; P = .038). Among patients with fludarabine-sensitive disease who had previously demonstrated maximum benefit with OBL-FC, the previously observed survival benefit improved: a 50% reduction in the risk of death was observed (P = .004). Conclusion In relapsed/refractory CLL, OBL combined with FC offers patients who achieve complete or partial remission, as well as those who have fludarabine-sensitive disease, a significant survival benefit. PMID:19738118

  2. Efficacy of continuous positive airway pressure treatment on 5-year survival in patients with ischaemic stroke and obstructive sleep apnea: a randomized controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Parra, Olga; Sánchez-Armengol, Ángeles; Capote, Francisco; Bonnin, Marc; Arboix, Adrià; Campos-Rodríguez, Francisco; Pérez-Ronchel, José; Durán-Cantolla, Joaquín; Martínez-Null, Cristina; de la Peña, Mónica; Jiménez, Maria Carmen; Masa, Fernando; Casadon, Ignacio; Alonso, Maria Luz; Macarrón, José L

    2015-02-01

    The main purpose of the present analysis is to assess the influence of introducing early nasal continuous positive airway pressure (nCPAP) treatment on cardiovascular recurrences and mortality in patients with a first-ever ischaemic stroke and moderate-severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) with an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) ≥20 events h(-1) during a 5-year follow-up. Patients received conventional treatment for stroke and were assigned randomly to the nCPAP group (n = 71) or the control group (n = 69). Cardiovascular events and mortality were registered for all patients. Survival and cardiovascular event-free survival analysis were performed after 5-year follow-up using the Kaplan-Meier test. Patients in the nCPAP group had significantly higher cardiovascular survival than the control group (100 versus 89.9%, log-rank test 5.887; P = 0.015) However, and also despite a positive tendency, there were no significant differences in the cardiovascular event-free survival at 68 months between the nCPAP and control groups (89.5 versus 75.4%, log-rank test 3.565; P = 0.059). Early nCPAP therapy has a positive effect on long-term survival in ischaemic stroke patients and moderate-severe OSA.

  3. Evaluation of the Correlation between CD44, Tumor Prognosis and the 5-Year Survival Rate in Patients with Oral Tongue SCC

    PubMed Central

    Kaboodkhani, Reza; Karimi, Ebrahim; Khorsandi Ashtiani, Mohammad Taghi; Kowkabi, Safoura; Firouzifar, Mohammad Reza; Yazdani, Farzad; Yazdani, Nasrin

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: 90% of the tumors in the head and neck are squamous-cell carcinomas (HNSCC), which have overall 5- year survival rate between 50% -60%. CD44 has been shown to be associated with the prognosis. Materials and Methods: Biopsy specimens of 51 patients with oral tongue SCC were evaluated by Immunohistochemistry (IHC) for the CD44 antibody. Results: There was no significant correlation between CD44 and survival (P=0.77), age (P=0.4), CD44 and lymph node metastasis (P=0.87), sex (P=0.947), smoking (P=0.287) and tumor size (P=0.813). However, there was significant correlation between smoking and survival. Conclusion: There are widespread discrepancies among the findings in the literature regarding the prognosis of CD44 expression in OCSCC. Our study shows that the expression of CD44 is not a marker of aggressive behavior in oral tongue SCC. Consequently, CD44 cannot be considered as handy tool to establish the tumor behavior, prognosis and 5- year survival rate of these tumors. PMID:28008391

  4. Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate

    PubMed Central

    Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

    2010-01-01

    Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects. PMID:21455458

  5. Long-term effect of the North Carolina graduated driver licensing system on licensed driver crash incidence: a 5-year survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Masten, Scott V; Foss, Robert D

    2010-11-01

    Several studies document the success of graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems in reducing young teen crash rates, but it is not yet clear whether any portion of the crash reduction is achieved by producing more capable drivers. The purpose of this study was to determine whether young teen drivers licensed under the North Carolina GDL system remain crash-free longer than those licensed prior to GDL, independent of the crude reductions in exposure (i.e., decreasing and delaying licensure) that may be responsible for most documented effects of GDL. Survival analysis was used to compare retrospective cohorts of 16-17 year olds before (n=105,569) and after (n=327,054) the North Carolina GDL system was implemented. The crash incidence of GDL-licensed 16-17 year olds (combined) was 10% lower than that for pre-GDL teens for at least 5 years after being licensed to drive independently (hazard ratio [HR]=0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.89, 0.91). However, more refined analysis revealed the reductions to only be among females (7%; HR=0.93; CI=0.91, 0.94) and males (15%; HR=0.85, CI=0.84, 0.87) licensed at age 16 and not among females (0%; HR=1.00; CI=0.95, 1.06) and males (0%; HR=1.00; CI=0.92, 1.09) licensed at age 17. Sixteen-year-old drivers licensed under the North Carolina GDL system experienced lower first-crash incidence during the first 5 years of unsupervised driving than did those licensed under the previous system. The benefits are greater for males, who tend to have higher crash rates. The findings contradict conventional wisdom that the entire benefit of GDL results merely from decreasing or delaying licensure among young drivers.

  6. Junctional epidermolysis bullosa incidence and survival: 5-year experience of the Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa Research Association of America (DebRA) nurse educator, 2007 to 2011.

    PubMed

    Kelly-Mancuso, Geraldine; Kopelan, Brett; Azizkhan, Richard G; Lucky, Anne W

    2014-01-01

    Junctional epidermolysis bullosa (JEB) is a particularly devastating type of epidermolysis bullosa, especially in the newborn period. Data about the number of new cases of JEB in the United States were collected from the records of the Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa Research Association of America (DebRA) nurse educator. Seventy-one children with JEB were reported to have been born in the 5 years between 2007 and 2011, reflecting an incidence of at least 3.59 per million per year, significantly higher than previously estimated (2.04 per million). There was a high prevalence of morbidity and infant mortality of at least 73%, as 52 of the 71 cases proved fatal by June 2012. These data emphasize the need for future research to develop treatment and ultimately a cure for this disorder.

  7. Survival status and predictors of mortality among severely acute malnourished children <5 years of age admitted to stabilization centers in Gedeo Zone: a retrospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Girum, Tadele; Kote, Mesfin; Tariku, Befikadu; Bekele, Henok

    2017-01-01

    Despite the existence of standard protocol, many stabilization centers (SCs) continue to experience high mortality of children receiving treatment for severe acute malnutrition. Assessing treatment outcomes and identifying predictors may help to overcome this problem. Therefore, a 30-month retrospective cohort study was conducted among 545 randomly selected medical records of children <5 years of age admitted to SCs in Gedeo Zone. Data was entered by Epi Info version 7 and analyzed by STATA version 11. Cox proportional hazards model was built by forward stepwise procedure and compared by the likelihood ratio test and Harrell's concordance, and fitness was checked by Cox-Snell residual plot. During follow-up, 51 (9.3%) children had died, and 414 (76%) and 26 (4.8%) children had recovered and defaulted (missed follow-up for 2 consecutive days), respectively. The survival rates at the end of the first, second and third weeks were 95.3%, 90% and 85%, respectively, and the overall mean survival time was 79.6 days. Age <24 months (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] =2.841, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.101-7.329), altered pulse rate (AHR =3.926, 95% CI =1.579-9.763), altered temperature (AHR =7.173, 95% CI =3.05-16.867), shock (AHR =3.805, 95% CI =1.829-7.919), anemia (AHR =2.618, 95% CI =1.148-5.97), nasogastric tube feeding (AHR =3.181, 95% CI =1.18-8.575), hypoglycemia (AHR =2.74, 95% CI =1.279-5.87) and treatment at hospital stabilization center (AHR =4.772, 95% CI =1.638-13.9) were independent predictors of mortality. The treatment outcomes and incidence of death were in the acceptable ranges of national and international standards. Intervention to further reduce deaths has to focus on young children with comorbidities and altered general conditions.

  8. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrow, Connie E.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan L.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2009-01-01

    We estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n = 476) with prenatal drug exposures documented…

  9. Survival status and predictors of mortality among severely acute malnourished children <5 years of age admitted to stabilization centers in Gedeo Zone: a retrospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Girum, Tadele; Kote, Mesfin; Tariku, Befikadu; Bekele, Henok

    2017-01-01

    Despite the existence of standard protocol, many stabilization centers (SCs) continue to experience high mortality of children receiving treatment for severe acute malnutrition. Assessing treatment outcomes and identifying predictors may help to overcome this problem. Therefore, a 30-month retrospective cohort study was conducted among 545 randomly selected medical records of children <5 years of age admitted to SCs in Gedeo Zone. Data was entered by Epi Info version 7 and analyzed by STATA version 11. Cox proportional hazards model was built by forward stepwise procedure and compared by the likelihood ratio test and Harrell’s concordance, and fitness was checked by Cox–Snell residual plot. During follow-up, 51 (9.3%) children had died, and 414 (76%) and 26 (4.8%) children had recovered and defaulted (missed follow-up for 2 consecutive days), respectively. The survival rates at the end of the first, second and third weeks were 95.3%, 90% and 85%, respectively, and the overall mean survival time was 79.6 days. Age <24 months (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] =2.841, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.101–7.329), altered pulse rate (AHR =3.926, 95% CI =1.579–9.763), altered temperature (AHR =7.173, 95% CI =3.05–16.867), shock (AHR =3.805, 95% CI =1.829–7.919), anemia (AHR =2.618, 95% CI =1.148–5.97), nasogastric tube feeding (AHR =3.181, 95% CI =1.18–8.575), hypoglycemia (AHR =2.74, 95% CI =1.279–5.87) and treatment at hospital stabilization center (AHR =4.772, 95% CI =1.638–13.9) were independent predictors of mortality. The treatment outcomes and incidence of death were in the acceptable ranges of national and international standards. Intervention to further reduce deaths has to focus on young children with comorbidities and altered general conditions. PMID:28176953

  10. Up-to-date and precise estimates of cancer patient survival: model-based period analysis.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Hermann; Hakulinen, Timo

    2006-10-01

    Monitoring of progress in cancer patient survival by cancer registries should be as up-to-date as possible. Period analysis has been shown to provide more up-to-date survival estimates than do traditional methods of survival analysis. However, there is a trade-off between up-to-dateness and the precision of period estimates, in that increasing the up-to-dateness of survival estimates by restricting the analysis to a relatively short, recent time period, such as the most recent calendar year for which cancer registry data are available, goes along with a loss of precision. The authors propose a model-based approach to maximize the up-to-dateness of period estimates at minimal loss of precision. The approach is illustrated for monitoring of 5-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with one of 20 common forms of cancer in Finland between 1953 and 2002 by use of data from the nationwide Finnish Cancer Registry. It is shown that the model-based approach provides survival estimates that are as up-to-date as the most up-to-date conventional period estimates and at the same time much more precise than the latter. The modeling approach may further enhance the use of period analysis for deriving up-to-date cancer survival rates.

  11. [Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy using NCS (neocarzinostatin) and 5-FU in the treatment of gastric cancer. First report--A comparison with the 5-year survival rate of patients undergoing combined therapy with MMC and 5-FU].

    PubMed

    Yokomori, T; Taniguchi, T; Iesato, H; Sakata, Y; Watanabe, T; Kawabe, K

    1987-11-01

    As a postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy for gastric cancer, we have administered a combination of NCS (Neocarzinostatin) and 5-FU (NF treatment method) and in this paper we have compiled the results obtained in patients who were treated for 5 years in an attempt to compare the 5-year survival rate with that of patients administered a combination of MMC and 5-FU (MF treatment group) and a control group administered no anticancer agents. As the selection of either NF or MF treatment was conducted on an annual basis, this study can be considered an historical controlled study. The results obtained are summarized as follows. On comparing the survival rate of the NF treatment group and the control group, the 5-year survival rate for all patients who underwent curative resection and all patients with histological stage III cancers and the curative resection PS (+) group, as well as the survival period of the non-resected patients, showed a statistically significant difference, indicating that the survival rate was higher in the NF group. On comparing the NF group and the MF group, although no statistically significant difference was observed between then based on a stratified analysis of all resected cases, histological stage differences and n.ps factors, etc., certain values tended to indicate a higher survival rate for the NF group. Moreover, the survival rate of the non-resected patients was more favorable in the NF group. These results confirm that NCS is useful for the treatment of stomach cancer and compares favorably with MMC. The appearance of side-effects was significantly lower in the NF group in comparison with the MF group and the number of patients who had to discontinue therapy was extremely low.

  12. Prolonged Survival (>48 months) in a Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Cervix After Late Skin Metastasis (>5 year) to Incision Site: A Case Report.

    PubMed

    Ozmen, Batuhan; Sükür, Yavuz Emre; Atabekoğlu, Cem; Güngör, Mete

    2009-01-01

    Metastasis to the incision site of squamous cervical cancer (SCC) is an extremely rare entity which is strictly related with extremely poor prognosis. The vast majority of the reported cases died in a year due to distant recurrences, whereby skin metastases were predominantly observed close to the primary tumor site. A SCC with skin metastasis which was diagnosed 5 years after the radical surgery and postoperative radiotherapy which involved the midline incision site was reported. Large surgical excision of the metastasis with remaining surgical free margins (>2 cm) and combined chemo-radiotherapy with single agent (cisplatinum) was performed. The patient did not show any recurrences for 4 years follow-up. Apparently, palliative combined chemo-radiotherapy along with large excision seems favorable for controlling symptoms and progression of skin metastasis of squamous cervical cancer.

  13. Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival

    PubMed Central

    Delavande, Adeline; Rohwedder, Susann

    2013-01-01

    Cross-country comparisons of differential survival by socioeconomic status (SES) are useful in many domains. Yet, to date, such studies have been rare. Reliably estimating differential survival in a single country has been challenging because it requires rich panel data with a large sample size. Cross-country estimates have proven even more difficult because the measures of SES need to be comparable internationally. We present an alternative method for acquiring information on differential survival by SES. Rather than using observations of actual survival, we relate individuals’ subjective probabilities of survival to SES variables in cross section. To show that subjective survival probabilities are informative proxies for actual survival when estimating differential survival, we compare estimates of differential survival based on actual survival with estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival for the same sample. The results are remarkably similar. We then use this approach to compare differential survival by SES for 10 European countries and the United States. Wealthier people have higher survival probabilities than those who are less wealthy, but the strength of the association differs across countries. Nations with a smaller gradient appear to be Belgium, France, and Italy, while the United States, England, and Sweden appear to have a larger gradient. PMID:22042664

  14. 5-Year Budget Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Conyers, John G.; Lingel, George; Piekarski, Robert

    2000-01-01

    Financial planning is the key to providing a high-quality instructional plan. A 5-year financial plan is typically updated by looking at district financial history, future instructional plans, staffing requirements, and revenue projections. Planning assumptions must be clearly understood by the financial team and the community. (MLH)

  15. Improved Estimates of Cancer-Specific Survival Rates From Population-Based Data

    PubMed Central

    Ries, Lynn A. G.; Mariotto, Angela B.; Reichman, Marsha E.; Ruhl, Jennifer; Cronin, Kathleen A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Accurate estimates of cancer survival are important for assessing optimal patient care and prognosis. Evaluation of these estimates via relative survival (a ratio of observed and expected survival rates) requires a population life table that is matched to the cancer population by age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and ideally risk factors for the cancer under examination. Because life tables for all subgroups in a study may be unavailable, we investigated whether cause-specific survival could be used as an alternative for relative survival. Methods We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for 2 330 905 cancer patients from January 1, 1992, through December 31, 2004. We defined cancer-specific deaths according to the following variables: cause of death, only one tumor or the first of multiple tumors, site of the original cancer diagnosis, and comorbidities. Estimates of relative survival and cause-specific survival that were derived by use of an actuarial method were compared. Results Among breast cancer patients who were white, black, or of Asian or Pacific Islander descent and who were older than 65 years, estimates of 5-year relative survival (107.5%, 106.6%, and 103.0%, respectively) were higher than estimates of 5-year cause-specific survival (98.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 98.4% to 98.8%; 97.4%, 95% CI = 96.2% to 98.2%; and 99.2%, 95% CI = 98.4%, 99.6%, respectively). Relative survival methods likely underestimated rates for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx (eg, for white cancer patients aged ≥65 years, relative survival = 54.2%, 95% CI = 53.1% to 55.3%, and cause-specific survival = 60.1%, 95% CI = 59.1% to 60.9%) and the lung and bronchus (eg, for black cancer patients aged ≥65 years, relative survival = 10.5%, 95% CI = 9.9% to 11.2%, and cause-specific survival = 11.9%, 95% CI = 11.2 % to 12.6%), largely because of mismatches between the population with these diseases and

  16. Developmental milestones record - 5 years

    MedlinePlus

    ... Childhood growth milestones - 5 years; Growth milestones for children - 5 years; Well child - 5 years ... skill milestones for a typical 5-year-old child include: Gains about 4 to 5 pounds (1. ...

  17. Piecewise Geometric Estimation of a Survival Function.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-04-01

    considering a special case of the regres - sion model of Cox (1972). These estimators generally correspond to failure rate function estimators that are step...distribution. 20. ABSTRACT (Continued) The PEGE is consistent and asymptotically normal under conditions more general than those of the model of... actuarial science. The general situation is described as follows. The variable of interest is the lifespan of some unit: the investigator wishes to

  18. Estimating net survival: the importance of allowing for informative censoring.

    PubMed

    Danieli, Coraline; Remontet, Laurent; Bossard, Nadine; Roche, Laurent; Belot, Aurélien

    2012-04-13

    Net survival, the one that would be observed if cancer were the only cause of death, is the most appropriate indicator to compare cancer mortality between areas or countries. Several parametric and non-parametric methods have been developed to estimate net survival, particularly when the cause of death is unknown. These methods are based either on the relative survival ratio or on the additive excess hazard model, the latter using the general population mortality hazard to estimate the excess mortality hazard (the hazard related to net survival). The present work used simulations to compare estimator abilities to estimate net survival in different settings such as the presence/absence of an age effect on the excess mortality hazard or on the potential time of follow-up, knowing that this covariate has an effect on the general population mortality hazard too. It showed that when age affected the excess mortality hazard, most estimators, including specific survival, were biased. Only two estimators were appropriate to estimate net survival. The first is based on a multivariable excess hazard model that includes age as covariate. The second is non-parametric and is based on the inverse probability weighting. These estimators take differently into account the informative censoring induced by the expected mortality process. The former offers great flexibility whereas the latter requires neither the assumption of a specific distribution nor a model-building strategy. Because of its simplicity and availability in commonly used software, the nonparametric estimator should be considered by cancer registries for population-based studies.

  19. Nest survival estimation: a review of alternatives to the Mayfield estimator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jehle, G.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Savidge, J.A.; Skagen, S.K.

    2004-01-01

    Reliable estimates of nest survival are essential for assessing strategies for avian conservation. We review the history of modifications and alternatives for estimating nest survival, with a focus on four techniques: apparent nest success, the Mayfield estimator, the Stanley method, and program MARK. The widely used Mayfield method avoids the known positive bias inherent in apparent nest success by estimating daily survival rates using the number of exposure days, eliminating the need to monitor nests from initiation. Concerns that some of Mayfield's assumptions were restrictive stimulated the development of new techniques. Stanley's method allows for calculation of stage-specific daily survival rates when transition and failure dates are unknown, and eliminates Mayfield's assumption that failure occurred midway through the nest-check interval. Program MARK obviates Mayfield's assumption of constant daily survival within nesting stages and evaluates variation in nest survival as a function of biologically relevant factors. These innovative methods facilitate the evaluation of nest survival using an information-theoretic approach. We illustrate use of these methods with Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) nest data from the Pawnee National Grassland, Colorado. Nest survival estimates calculated using Mayfield, Stanley, and MARK methods were similar, but apparent nest success estimates ranged 1-24% greater than the other estimates. MARK analysis revealed that survival of Lark Bunting nests differed between site-year groups, declined with both nest age and time in season, but did not vary with weather parameters. We encourage researchers to use these approaches to gain reliable and meaningful nest survival estimates.

  20. Estimating survival rates with age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, M.S.; Ballachey, B.E.

    1998-01-01

    We developed a general statistical model that provides a comprehensive framework for inference about survival rates based on standing age-structure and ages-at-death data. Previously available estimators are maximum likelihood under the general model, but they use only 1 type of data and require the assumption of a stable age structure and a known population growth rate. We used the general model to derive new survival rate estimators that use both types of data and require only the assumption of a stable age structure or a known population growth rate. Our likelihood-based approach allows use of standard model-selection procedures to test hypotheses about age-structure stability, population growth rates, and age-related patterns in survival. We used this approach to estimate survival rates for female sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

  1. Landmark estimation of survival and treatment effects in observational studies.

    PubMed

    Parast, Layla; Griffin, Beth Ann

    2017-04-01

    Clinical studies aimed at identifying effective treatments to reduce the risk of disease or death often require long term follow-up of participants in order to observe a sufficient number of events to precisely estimate the treatment effect. In such studies, observing the outcome of interest during follow-up may be difficult and high rates of censoring may be observed which often leads to reduced power when applying straightforward statistical methods developed for time-to-event data. Alternative methods have been proposed to take advantage of auxiliary information that may potentially improve efficiency when estimating marginal survival and improve power when testing for a treatment effect. Recently, Parast et al. (J Am Stat Assoc 109(505):384-394, 2014) proposed a landmark estimation procedure for the estimation of survival and treatment effects in a randomized clinical trial setting and demonstrated that significant gains in efficiency and power could be obtained by incorporating intermediate event information as well as baseline covariates. However, the procedure requires the assumption that the potential outcomes for each individual under treatment and control are independent of treatment group assignment which is unlikely to hold in an observational study setting. In this paper we develop the landmark estimation procedure for use in an observational setting. In particular, we incorporate inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) in the landmark estimation procedure to account for selection bias on observed baseline (pretreatment) covariates. We demonstrate that consistent estimates of survival and treatment effects can be obtained by using IPTW and that there is improved efficiency by using auxiliary intermediate event and baseline information. We compare our proposed estimates to those obtained using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, the original landmark estimation procedure, and the IPTW Kaplan-Meier estimator. We illustrate our resulting reduction in bias

  2. Simultaneous marginal survival estimators when doubly censored data is present.

    PubMed

    Julià, Olga; Gómez, Guadalupe

    2011-07-01

    A doubly censoring scheme occurs when the lifetimes T being measured,from a well-known time origin, are exactly observed within a window [L, R] of observational time and are otherwise censored either from above (right-censored observations)or below (left-censored observations). Sample data consists on the pairs (U, δ)where U = min{R, max{T, L}} and δ indicates whether T is exactly observed (δ = 0),right-censored (δ = 1) or left-censored (δ = −1). We are interested in the estimation of the marginal behaviour of the three random variables T, L and R based on the observed pairs (U, δ).We propose new nonparametric simultaneous marginal estimators Ŝ(T) , Ŝ(L) and Ŝ(R) for the survival functions of T, L and R, respectively, by means of an inverse-probability-of-censoring approach. The proposed estimators Ŝ(T) , Ŝ(L) and Ŝ(R) are not computationally intensive, generalize the empirical survival estimator and reduce to the Kaplan-Meier estimator in the absence of left-censored data. Furthermore,Ŝ(T) is equivalent to a self-consistent estimator, is uniformly strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. The method is illustrated with data from a cohort of drug users recruited in a detoxification program in Badalona (Spain). For these data we estimate the survival function for the elapsed time from starting IV-drugs to AIDS diagnosis, as well as the potential follow-up time. A simulation study is discussed to assess the performance of the three survival estimators for moderate sample sizes and different censoring levels.

  3. Testing for handling bias in survival estimation for black brant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, J.S.; Lindberg, M.S.; Rexstad, E.A.; Chelgren, N.D.; Ward, D.H.

    1997-01-01

    We used an ultrastructure approach in program SURVIV to test for, and remove, bias in survival estimates for the year following mass banding of female black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We used relative banding-drive size as the independent variable to control for handling effects in our ultrastructure models, which took the form: S = S0(1 - ??D), where ?? was handling effect and D was the ratio of banding-drive size to the largest banding drive. Brant were divided into 3 classes: goslings, initial captures, and recaptures, based on their state at the time of banding, because we anticipated the potential for heterogeneity in model parameters among classes of brant. Among models examined, for which ?? was not constrained, a model with ?? constant across classes of brant and years, constant survival rates among years for initially captured brant but year-specific survival rates for goslings and recaptures, and year- and class-specific detection probabilities had the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Handling effect, ??, was -0.47 ?? 0.13 SE, -0.14 ?? 0.057, and -0.12 ?? 0.049 for goslings, initially released adults, and recaptured adults. Gosling annual survival in the first year ranged from 0.738 ?? 0.072 for the 1986 cohort to 0.260 ?? 0.025 for the 1991 cohort. Inclusion of winter observations increased estimates of first-year survival rates by an average of 30%, suggesting that permanent emigration had an important influence on apparent survival, especially for later cohorts. We estimated annual survival for initially captured brant as 0.782 ?? 0.013, while that for recaptures varied from 0.726 ?? 0.034 to 0.900 ?? 0.062. Our analyses failed to detect a negative effect of handling on survival of brant, which is consistent with an hypothesis of substantial inherent heterogeneity in post-fledging survival rates, such that individuals most likely to die as a result of handling also have lower inherent survival probabilities.

  4. Robustness of survival estimates for radio-marked animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bunck, C.M.; Chen, C.-L.

    1992-01-01

    Telemetry techniques are often used to study the survival of birds and mammals; particularly whcn mark-recapture approaches are unsuitable. Both parametric and nonparametric methods to estimate survival have becn developed or modified from other applications. An implicit assumption in these approaches is that the probability of re-locating an animal with a functioning transmitter is one. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to determine the bias and variance of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and an estimator based also on the assumption of constant hazard and to eva!uate the performance of the two-sample tests associated with each. Modifications of each estimator which allow a re-Iocation probability of less than one are described and evaluated. Generallv the unmodified estimators were biased but had lower variance. At low sample sizes all estimators performed poorly. Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of all test statistics reasonably approximated the null distribution when survival was low but not when it was high. The power of the two-sample tests were similar.

  5. Effect of delayed reporting of band recoveries on survival estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, David R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

    1980-01-01

    Brownie et al. (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., Resource Publ. 131, 1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the study of survival in avian populations. These methods are replacing the life table methods previously used to estimate survival rates (e.g., Burnham and Anderson, J. Wildl. Manage., 43: 356-366, 1979). The new methods allow survival or recovery rates, or both, to be constant, time-specific, or time- and age-specific. In studies to estimate survival rates for birds the data are often from recoveries of birds shot or found dead during the hunting season and reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory by sportsmen, conservation agency employees, or the general public. This note examines the bias in estimating annual survival due to a proportion of the recoveries being incorrectly reported a year late. Specifically, a few recoveries each year of, for example, adult male American Widgeon (Anas americana) banded in California are reported as being recovered in year i + 1 when in fact they were actually recovered the previous year i. Delayed reporting might typically be caused by people finding a band in their health clothing in the fall of the year and, being embarrassed about their failure to report the band when it was taken, report it a year late not mentioning the actual year of recovery. Heuristically, delayed reporting should bias estimated annual survival rates upwards because it appears from the data that the birds corresponding to the "delayed" recoveries actually lived an additional year.

  6. Induction Chemotherapy Improved Long-term Outcomes of Patients with Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Propensity Matched Analysis of 5-year Survival Outcomes in the Era of Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Hao; Chen, Lei; Zhang, Jian; Li, Wen-Fei; Mao, Yan-Ping; Zhang, Yuan; Liu, Li-Zhi; Tian, Li; Lin, Ai-Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study is to evaluate the long-term therapeutic gain of induction chemotherapy (IC) in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in the era of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods: Data on 957 patients with stage T1-2N2-3 or T3-4N1-3 NPC treated with IMRT were retrospectively reviewed. Propensity score matching (PSM) method was adopted to balance influence of various covariates. Patient survival between IC and non-IC groups were compared. Results: For the 318 pairs selected from the original 957 patients by PSM, the median follow-up duration was 57.13 months (range, 1.27-78.1 months). The 5-year overall survival (OS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), disease-free survival (DFS) and locoregional relapse-free survival (LRRFS) rates for IC group vs. non-IC group were 87.2% vs. 80.8% (P = 0.023), 88.1% vs. 83.2% (P = 0.071), 80.7% vs. 71.4% (P = 0.011) and 92.1% vs. 86.7% (P = 0.081), respectively. Multivariate analysis identify IC as an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR, 0.595; 95% CI, 0.397-0.891; P = 0.012) and DFS (HR, 0.627; 95% CI, 0.451-0.872; P = 0.006). After excluding the patients not receiving concurrent chemotherapy, IC was found to be an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR, 0.566; 95% CI, 0.368-0.872; P = 0.01), DMFS (HR, 0.580; 95% CI, 0.367-0.916; P = 0.02) and DFS (HR, 0.633; 95% CI, 0.444-0.903; P = 0.012). Conclusions: IC is an effective treatment modality for patients with stage T1-2N2-3 and T3-4N1-3 NPC, and the incorporation of IC with standard CCRT could achieve the best therapeutic gain. PMID:28261337

  7. Effect of misclassified underlying cause of death on survival estimates of colon and rectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Yin, Daixin; Morris, Cyllene R; Bates, Janet H; German, Robert R

    2011-07-20

    Inaccurate coding of patients' Underlying Cause of Death (UCOD) has constrained cause-specific survival estimates for colon and rectal cancers. Using California data from the Accuracy of Cancer Mortality study, we compared the cancer site data from the California Cancer Registry (CCR) with UCODs reported on death certificates and reclassified the UCODs based on cancer registry data when they disagreed. We then calculated 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cause-specific survival for colon and rectal cancers separately, before and after the reclassification. Records from 26 312 colon and 10 687 rectal cancer patients were examined. UCOD records disagreed with CCR records for 700 (6%) of 11 404 colon cancer deaths and with 1958 (39%) of 5011 rectal cancer deaths, and 82% of the misclassified rectal cancer deaths were coded as colon cancer deaths in the UCOD. Reclassification decreased cause-specific survival for both colon and rectal cancers, but the impact was more pronounced for rectal cancer (eg, 5-year cause-specific survival of colon cancer decreased by 2.8% and of rectal cancer decreased by 20.0% relative to previous estimates; absolute rates changed from 65.4% to 63.6%, and 81.2% to 64.9%, respectively, after reclassification). Interchangeable use of the terms colon cancer and colorectal cancer is likely to be one of the reasons for UCOD misclassification. Educational measures could improve the accuracy of UCOD for colon and rectal cancer deaths.

  8. A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies.

    PubMed

    Gilroy, James J; Virzi, Thomas; Boulton, Rebecca L; Lockwood, Julie L

    2012-07-01

    Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages.

  9. Model based period analysis of absolute and relative survival with R: data preparation, model fitting and derivation of survival estimates.

    PubMed

    Holleczek, Bernd; Brenner, Hermann

    2013-05-01

    Period analysis is increasingly employed in analyses of long-term survival of patients with chronic diseases such as cancer, as it derives more up-to-date survival estimates than traditional cohort based approaches. It has recently been extended with regression modelling using generalized linear models, which increases the precision of the survival estimates and enables to assess and account for effects of additional covariates. This paper provides a detailed presentation how model based period analysis may be used to derive population-based absolute and relative survival estimates using the freely available R language and statistical environment and already available R programs for period analysis. After an introduction of the underlying regression model and a description of the software tools we provide a step-by-step implementation of two regression models in R and illustrate how estimates and a test for trend over time in relative survival may be derived using data from a population based cancer registry.

  10. Long-term survival estimates of cast gold inlays and onlays with their analysis of failures.

    PubMed

    Studer, S P; Wettstein, F; Lehner, C; Zullo, T G; Schärer, P

    2000-06-01

    The aim of the present study was to assess the clinical behaviour of cast gold restorations with respect to define a gold control against current and future ceramic and composite restorations. The study sample included 50 patients with 303 cast gold restorations. All restorations were cemented with a non-adhesive technique. A total of 303 restorations were evaluated clinically and radiographically using modified United States Public Health Service criteria. Restorations recorded as having an A- or a B-rating were defined as successful. Of the 303 restorations, 42 were judged as failures, which resulted in a failure rate of 13.8% for a mean observation time (+/- s.d.) of 18.7 ( +/- 9.5) years. The estimated Kaplan-Meier survival rates (s.e.) were 96.1% (+/- 1.1%) at 10 years, 87.0% (+/- 2.2%) at 20 years and 73.5% (+/- 5.4%) at 30 years. In total, biological reasons were counted 25 times in comparison to 17 technical reasons for those 42 failed cast gold restorations, with 17 secondary caries (40%) as the most common biological reason and with 13 retention losses (31%) as the most common technical reason. The endodontically treated tooth was exclusively identified as a risk factor. The restoration type (inlay versus onlay) did not influence the survival rate.

  11. Use of a Cumulative Exposure Index to Estimate the Impact of Tap Water Lead Concentration on Blood Lead Levels in 1- to 5-Year-Old Children (Montréal, Canada)

    PubMed Central

    Ngueta, Gerard; Abdous, Belkacem; Tardif, Robert; St-Laurent, Julie; Levallois, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Background Drinking water is recognized as a source of lead (Pb) exposure. However, questions remain about the impact of chronic exposure to lead-contaminated water on internal dose. Objective Our goal was to estimate the relation between a cumulative water Pb exposure index (CWLEI) and blood Pb levels (BPb) in children 1–5 years of ages. Methods Between 10 September 2009 and 27 March 2010, individual characteristics and water consumption data were obtained from 298 children. Venous blood samples were collected (one per child) and a total of five 1-L samples of water per home were drawn from the kitchen tap. A second round of water collection was performed between 22 June 2011 and 6 September 2011 on a subsample of houses. Pb analyses used inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy. Multiple linear regressions were used to estimate the association between CWLEI and BPb. Results Each 1-unit increase in CWLEI multiplies the expected value of BPb by 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.15) after adjustment for confounders. Mean BPb was significantly higher in children in the upper third and fourth quartiles of CWLEI (0.7–1.9 and ≥ 1.9 μg/kg of body weight) compared with the first (< 0.2 μg/kg) after adjusting for confounders (19%; 95% CI: 0, 42% and 39%; 95% CI: 15, 67%, respectively). The trends analysis yielded a p-value < 0.0001 after adjusting for confounders suggesting a dose–response relationship between percentiles of CWLEI and BPb. Conclusions In children 1–5 years of age, BPb was significantly associated with water lead concentration with an increase starting at a cumulative lead exposure of ≥ 0.7 μg Pb/kg of body weight. In this age group, an increase of 1 μg/L in water lead would result in an increase of 35% of BPb after 150 days of exposure. Citation Ngueta G, Abdous B, Tardif R, St-Laurent J, Levallois P. 2016. Use of a cumulative exposure index to estimate the impact of tap water lead concentration on blood lead levels in 1- to 5-year-old children

  12. INCLUDING TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN NEST SURVIVAL ESTIMATION: A MAYFIELD MARKOV CHAIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript is primarily an exploration of the statistical properties of nest-survival estimates for terrestrial songbirds. The Mayfield formulation described herein should allow researchers to test for complicated effects of stressors on daily survival and overall success, i...

  13. Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

    2010-07-01

    We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root-n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

  14. A comparison between Kaplan-Meier and weighted Kaplan-Meier methods of five-year survival estimation of patients with gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Zare, Ali; Mahmoodi, Mahmood; Mohammad, Kazem; Zeraati, Hojjat; Hosseini, Mostafa; Holakouie Naieni, Kourosh

    2014-01-01

    The 5-year survival rate is a good prognostic indicator for patients with Gastric cancer that is usually estimated based on Kaplan-Meier. In situations where censored observations are too many, this method produces biased estimations. This study aimed to compare estimations of Kaplan-Meier and Weighted Kaplan-Meier as an alternative method to deal with the problem of heavy-censoring. Data from 330 patients with Gastric cancer who had undergone surgery at Iran Cancer Institute from 1995- 1999 were analyzed. The Survival Time of these patients was determined after surgery, and the 5-year survival rate for these patients was evaluated based on Kaplan-Meier and Weighted Kaplan-Meier methods. A total of 239 (72.4%) patients passed away by the end of the study and 91(27.6%) patients were censored. The mean and median of survival time for these patients were 24.86±23.73 and 16.33 months, respectively. The one-year, two-year, three-year, four-year, and five-year survival rates of these patients with standard error estimation based on Kaplan-Meier were 0.66 (0.0264), 0.42 (0.0284), 0.31 (0.0274), 0.26 (0.0264) and 0.21 (0.0256) months, respectively. The estimations of Weighted Kaplan-Meier for these patients were 0.62 (0.0251), 0.35 (0.0237), 0.24 (0.0211), 0.17 (0.0172), and 0.10 (0.0125) months, consecutively. In cases where censoring assumption is not made, and the study has many censored observations, estimations obtained from the Kaplan-Meier are biased and are estimated higher than its real amount. But Weighted Kaplan-Meier decreases bias of survival probabilities by providing appropriate weights and presents more accurate understanding.

  15. Estimating the loss in expectation of life due to cancer using flexible parametric survival models.

    PubMed

    Andersson, Therese M-L; Dickman, Paul W; Eloranta, Sandra; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

    2013-12-30

    A useful summary measure for survival data is the expectation of life, which is calculated by obtaining the area under a survival curve. The loss in expectation of life due to a certain type of cancer is the difference between the expectation of life in the general population and the expectation of life among the cancer patients. This measure is used little in practice as its estimation generally requires extrapolation of both the expected and observed survival. A parametric distribution can be used for extrapolation of the observed survival, but it is difficult to find a distribution that captures the underlying shape of the survival function after the end of follow-up. In this paper, we base our extrapolation on relative survival, because it is more stable and reliable. Relative survival is defined as the observed survival divided by the expected survival, and the mortality analogue is excess mortality. Approaches have been suggested for extrapolation of relative survival within life-table data, by assuming that the excess mortality has reached zero (statistical cure) or has stabilized to a constant. We propose the use of flexible parametric survival models for relative survival, which enables estimating the loss in expectation of life on individual level data by making these assumptions or by extrapolating the estimated linear trend at the end of follow-up. We have evaluated the extrapolation from this model using data on four types of cancer, and the results agree well with observed data.

  16. Doubly robust estimator for net survival rate in analyses of cancer registry data.

    PubMed

    Komukai, Sho; Hattori, Satoshi

    2017-03-01

    Cancer population studies based on cancer registry databases are widely conducted to address various research questions. In general, cancer registry databases do not collect information on cause of death. The net survival rate is defined as the survival rate if a subject would not die for any causes other than cancer. This counterfactual concept is widely used for the analyses of cancer registry data. Perme, Stare, and Estève (2012) proposed a nonparametric estimator of the net survival rate under the assumption that the censoring time is independent of the survival time and covariates. Kodre and Perme (2013) proposed an inverse weighting estimator for the net survival rate under the covariate-dependent censoring. An alternative approach to estimating the net survival rate under covariate-dependent censoring is to apply a regression model for the conditional net survival rate given covariates. In this article, we propose a new estimator for the net survival rate. The proposed estimator is shown to be doubly robust in the sense that it is consistent at least one of the regression models for survival time and for censoring time. We examine the theoretical and empirical properties of our proposed estimator by asymptotic theory and simulation studies. We also apply the proposed method to cancer registry data for gastric cancer patients in Osaka, Japan.

  17. Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bowerman, Tracy; Budy, Phaedra

    2012-01-01

    Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

  18. A historical estimate of apparent survival of American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) in Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nol, Erica; Murphy, Sean P.; Cadman, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    Using mark-recapture models, apparent survival was estimated from older banding and re-sighting data (1978–1983) of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) nesting on beaches and in salt marshes of coastal Virginia, USA. Oystercatchers nesting in salt marshes exhibited higher apparent survival (0.94 ±0.03) than birds nesting on beaches (0.81 ±0.06), a difference due to variation in mortality, permanent emigration, or both. Nesting on exposed barrier beaches may subject adults and young to higher risk of predation. These early estimates of adult survival for a species that is heavily monitored along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts can be used to (1) develop demographic models to determine population stability, (2) compare with estimates of adult survival from populations that have reached carrying capacity, and (3) compare with estimates of survival from other oystercatcher populations and species.

  19. A method for estimating fall adult sex ratios from production and survival data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wight, H.M.; Heath, R.G.; Geis, A.D.

    1965-01-01

    This paper presents a method of utilizing data relating to the production and survival of a bird population to estimate a basic fall adult sex ratio. This basic adult sex ratio is an average value derived from average production and survival rates. It is an estimate of the average sex ratio about which the fall adult ratios will fluctuate according to annual variations in production and survival. The basic fall adult sex ratio has been calculated as an asymptotic value which is the limit of an infinite series wherein average population characteristics are used as constants. Graphs are provided that allow the determination of basic sex ratios from production and survival data of a population. Where the respective asymptote has been determined, it may be possible to estimate various production and survival rates by use of variations of the formula for estimating the asymptote.

  20. Graphical approach to evaluate genetic estimates of calf survival.

    PubMed

    Schlesser, H N; Shanks, R D; Berger, P J; Healey, M H

    2009-05-01

    Genetic variation and resemblance among relatives are fundamentals of quantitative genetics. Our purpose was to identify bulls with a bimodal pattern of inheritance in the quest for new discoveries about the inheritance of calf survival. A bimodal pattern of inheritance for calf survival was identified in sons of Holstein bulls. A bimodal pattern of inheritance indicates 2 groups of sons resulting from an allele effect, a grandsire effect, or some other common factor. Different combinations (AA, Aa, aa) of 2 alleles at a locus cause varying phenotypes to be expressed. Bulls that are heterozygous for loci affecting reproductive performance may have a bimodal pattern of inheritance if the difference in effect of the 2 alleles is large. If the bimodal pattern is caused by an allele effect, then molecular markers can be identified for use in marker-assisted selection breeding programs. Data on predicted transmitting ability for perinatal survival for the first parity of 8,678 sons of 599 sires were collected from 1984 through 1997 from the National Association of Animal Breeders calving ease database, which included 7 Midwestern states. Sixteen bulls were identified with a potential bimodal pattern of inheritance because they had 2 distinct groups of sons. The 2 groups of sons were separated by calculating the coefficient of variation for each possible combination of sons; the combination that gave the smallest coefficient of variation difference between the 2 groups was considered the correct distribution of the sons into those groups. Bulls with a bimodal distribution were analyzed to determine the distribution of the grandsons among the maternal grandsires (MGS) of the 2 groups of the bimodal distribution. The bimodal distribution may be a result of heterozygous sires or MGS that are homozygous for low or high survival. If the bimodal distribution is caused by a MGS effect, then marker-assisted selection can still be used by evaluating the MGS instead of the sires.

  1. Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

    2004-01-01

    We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

  2. Smolt Monitoring Program, Part I, Estimation of Survival, 1985 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Fish Passage Center

    1986-02-01

    The annual Smolt Monitoring Program is the result of implementation of Section 304(d)(2) of the Northwest Power Planning Council Fish and Wildlife Program. Survival was monitored for specific marked groups of steelhead and spring chinook. Survival through the mid-Columbia from Winthrop Hatchery and the Methow River to below Priest Rapids Dam was estimated. Estimation of survival of marked groups of steelhead from Little Goose Dam to below Ice Harbor Dam was attempted. Serious problems were evident in the Snake River survival data. A release strategy which avoids holding of control groups was tested with satisfactory results.

  3. Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

    2010-01-01

    Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

  4. Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

  5. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  6. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  7. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  8. Matching methods for obtaining survival functions to estimate the effect of a time-dependent treatment

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yun; Schaubel, Douglas E.; He, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    In observational studies of survival time featuring a binary time-dependent treatment, the hazard ratio (an instantaneous measure) is often used to represent the treatment effect. However, investigators are often more interested in the difference in survival functions. We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the causal effect of treatment among the treated with respect to survival probability. The objective is to compare post-treatment survival with the survival function that would have been observed in the absence of treatment. For each patient, we compute a prognostic score (based on the pre-treatment death hazard) and a propensity score (based on the treatment hazard). Each treated patient is then matched with an alive, uncensored and not-yet-treated patient with similar prognostic and/or propensity scores. The experience of each treated and matched patient is weighted using a variant of Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting to account for the impact of censoring. We propose estimators of the treatment-specific survival functions (and their difference), computed through weighted Nelson-Aalen estimators. Closed-form variance estimators are proposed which take into consideration the potential replication of subjects across matched sets. The proposed methods are evaluated through simulation, then applied to estimate the effect of kidney transplantation on survival among end-stage renal disease patients using data from a national organ failure registry. PMID:25309633

  9. Kernel Smoothed Profile Likelihood Estimation in the Accelerated Failure Time Frailty Model for Clustered Survival Data

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Bo; Lu, Wenbin; Zhang, Jiajia

    2013-01-01

    Summary Clustered survival data frequently arise in biomedical applications, where event times of interest are clustered into groups such as families. In this article we consider an accelerated failure time frailty model for clustered survival data and develop nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for it via a kernel smoother aided EM algorithm. We show that the proposed estimator for the regression coefficients is consistent, asymptotically normal and semiparametric efficient when the kernel bandwidth is properly chosen. An EM-aided numerical differentiation method is derived for estimating its variance. Simulation studies evaluate the finite sample performance of the estimator, and it is applied to the Diabetic Retinopathy data set. PMID:24443587

  10. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  11. Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

    2013-01-01

    Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

  12. Estimation of brood and nest survival: Comparative methods in the presence of heterogeneity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Manly, Bryan F.J.; Schmutz, Joel A.

    2001-01-01

    The Mayfield method has been widely used for estimating survival of nests and young animals, especially when data are collected at irregular observation intervals. However, this method assumes survival is constant throughout the study period, which often ignores biologically relevant variation and may lead to biased survival estimates. We examined the bias and accuracy of 1 modification to the Mayfield method that allows for temporal variation in survival, and we developed and similarly tested 2 additional methods. One of these 2 new methods is simply an iterative extension of Klett and Johnson's method, which we refer to as the Iterative Mayfield method and bears similarity to Kaplan-Meier methods. The other method uses maximum likelihood techniques for estimation and is best applied to survival of animals in groups or families, rather than as independent individuals. We also examined how robust these estimators are to heterogeneity in the data, which can arise from such sources as dependent survival probabilities among siblings, inherent differences among families, and adoption. Testing of estimator performance with respect to bias, accuracy, and heterogeneity was done using simulations that mimicked a study of survival of emperor goose (Chen canagica) goslings. Assuming constant survival for inappropriately long periods of time or use of Klett and Johnson's methods resulted in large bias or poor accuracy (often >5% bias or root mean square error) compared to our Iterative Mayfield or maximum likelihood methods. Overall, estimator performance was slightly better with our Iterative Mayfield than our maximum likelihood method, but the maximum likelihood method provides a more rigorous framework for testing covariates and explicity models a heterogeneity factor. We demonstrated use of all estimators with data from emperor goose goslings. We advocate that future studies use the new methods outlined here rather than the traditional Mayfield method or its previous

  13. Estimation of net survival for cancer patients: Relative survival setting more robust to some assumption violations than cause-specific setting, a sensitivity analysis on empirical data.

    PubMed

    Schaffar, Robin; Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Woods, Laura M

    2017-02-01

    Net survival is the survival that would be observed if the only possible underlying cause of death was the disease under study. It can be estimated with either cause-specific or relative survival data settings, if the informative censoring is properly considered. However, net survival estimators are prone to specific biases related to the data setting itself. We examined which data setting was the most robust against violation of key assumptions (erroneous cause of death and inappropriate life tables). We identified 4285 women in the Geneva Cancer Registry, diagnosed with breast, colorectal, lung cancer and melanoma between 1981 and 1991 and estimated net survival up to 20 years using cause-specific and relative survival settings. We used weights to tackle informative censoring in both settings and performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of misclassification of cause of death in the cause-specific setting or of using inappropriate life tables on net survival estimates in the relative survival setting. For all the four cancers, net survival was highest when using the cause-specific setting and the absolute difference between the two estimators increased with time since diagnosis. The sensitivity analysis showed that (i) the use of different life tables did not compromise net survival estimation in the relative survival setting, whereas (ii) a small level of misclassification for the cause of death led to a large change in the net survival estimate in the cause-specific setting. The relative survival setting was more robust to the above assumptions violations and is therefore recommended for estimation of net survival.

  14. Temporal and geographic estimates of survival and recovery rates for the mallard, 1950 through 1985

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chu, D.S.; Hestbeck, J.B.

    1989-01-01

    Estimates of survival and recovery rates and the corresponding sample variances and covariances were made for mallards (Anas platyrhychos) banded before the hunting season for the period 1950-85. Estimates were made for adults and young, males and females, for as many banding reference areas as possible using standard band-recovery methods.

  15. Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

    1998-01-01

    The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated

  16. [Non-parametric estimation of survival function for recurrent events data].

    PubMed

    González, Juan R; Peña, Edsel A

    2004-01-01

    Recurrent events when we deal with survival studies demand a different methodology from what is used in standard survival analysis. The main problem that we found when we make inference in these kind of studies is that the observations may not be independent. Thus, biased and inefficient estimators can be obtained if we do not take into account this fact. In the independent case, the interocurrence survival function can be estimated by the generalization of the limit product estimator (Peña et al. (2001)). However, if data are correlated, other models should be used such as frailty models or an estimator proposed by Wang and Chang (1999), that take into account the fact that interocurrence times were or not correlated. The aim of this paper has been the illustration of these approaches by using two real data sets.

  17. Non-parametric Estimation of a Survival Function with Two-stage Design Studies.

    PubMed

    Li, Gang; Tseng, Chi-Hong

    2008-06-01

    The two-stage design is popular in epidemiology studies and clinical trials due to its cost effectiveness. Typically, the first stage sample contains cheaper and possibly biased information, while the second stage validation sample consists of a subset of subjects with accurate and complete information. In this paper, we study estimation of a survival function with right-censored survival data from a two-stage design. A non-parametric estimator is derived by combining data from both stages. We also study its large sample properties and derive pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals for the survival function. The proposed estimator effectively reduces the variance and finite-sample bias of the Kaplan-Meier estimator solely based on the second stage validation sample. Finally, we apply our method to a real data set from a medical device post-marketing surveillance study.

  18. Survival time estimation using Injury Severity Score (ISS) in homicide cases.

    PubMed

    Cros, Jérôme; Alvarez, Jean-Claude; Sbidian, Emilie; Charlier, Philippe; de la Grandmaison, Geoffroy Lorin

    2013-12-10

    The aim of our study was to assess the value of ISS to estimate survival time in a retrospective study of all homicidal deaths in the Western suburbs of Paris between 1994 and 2008. Stab wounds were the most common cause of death. Survival time between assault and death, determined in 107 cases out of 511 homicide cases, ranged from 0 min to 25 days (mean 39 h). There was an overall significant association between the survival time and the ISS score. ISS and survival time were strongly associated with male victims and a clear trend was seen with women. Regarding the type of wounds, a trend was seen with gunshot wounds and blunt injuries, but not with stab wounds. There was no influence of blood toxicological results and resuscitation attempts. Overall, ISS was a good predictor of a survival under 30 min.

  19. Estimating the personal cure rate of cancer patients using population-based grouped cancer survival data.

    PubMed

    Binbing Yu; Tiwari, Ram C; Feuer, Eric J

    2011-06-01

    Cancer patients are subject to multiple competing risks of death and may die from causes other than the cancer diagnosed. The probability of not dying from the cancer diagnosed, which is one of the patients' main concerns, is sometimes called the 'personal cure' rate. Two approaches of modelling competing-risk survival data, namely the cause-specific hazards approach and the mixture model approach, have been used to model competing-risk survival data. In this article, we first show the connection and differences between crude cause-specific survival in the presence of other causes and net survival in the absence of other causes. The mixture survival model is extended to population-based grouped survival data to estimate the personal cure rate. Using the colorectal cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Programme, we estimate the probabilities of dying from colorectal cancer, heart disease, and other causes by age at diagnosis, race and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage.

  20. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1998-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates for a multispecies sample of neotropical birds from Panama have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses by Kart et al. (1990. Am. Nat. 136:277-91) contradicted that view, suggesting tropical birds may not have systematically high survival rates. A persistent criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses using these models indicate that, despite some variation among species, overall estimates of survival rates for understory birds in Panama are not strongly affected by adjustments for transients. We also compare estimates of survival rates based on mark-recapture models with observations of colour-marked birds. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to combinations of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding sources of this variation is the challenge for future work.

  1. Survival of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, estimated from 1981-1998 photoidentification data.

    PubMed

    Zeh, Judith; Poole, David; Miller, Gary; Koski, William; Baraff, Lisa; Rugh, David

    2002-12-01

    Annual survival probability of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, was estimated using both Bayesian and maximum likelihood implementations of Cormack and Jolly-Seber (JS) models for capture-recapture estimation in open populations and reduced-parameter generalizations of these models. Aerial photographs of naturally marked bowheads collected between 1981 and 1998 provided the data. The marked whales first photographed in a particular year provided the initial 'capture' and 'release' of those marked whales and photographs in subsequent years the 'recaptures'. The Cormack model, often called the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, and the program MARK were used to identify the model with a single survival and time-varying capture probabilities as the most appropriate for these data. When survival was constrained to be one or less, the maximum likelihood estimate computed by MARK was one, invalidating confidence interval computations based on the asymptotic standard error or profile likelihood. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation of the model was used to produce a posterior distribution for annual survival. The corresponding reduced-parameter JS model was also fit via MCMC because it is the more appropriate of the two models for these photoidentification data. Because the CJS model ignores much of the information on capture probabilities provided by the data, its results are less precise and more sensitive to the prior distributions used than results from the JS model. With priors for annual survival and capture probabilities uniform from 0 to 1, the posterior mean for bowhead survival rate from the JS model is 0.984, and 95% of the posterior probability lies between 0.948 and 1. This high estimated survival rate is consistent with other bowhead life history data.

  2. Survival estimates for reintroduced populations of the Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Howell, Paige E; Hossack, Blake R.; Muths, Erin L.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Chandler, Richard B.

    2016-01-01

    Global amphibian declines have been attributed to a number of factors including disease, invasive species, habitat degradation, and climate change. Reintroduction is one management action that is commonly used with the goal of recovering imperiled species. The success of reintroductions varies widely, and evaluating their efficacy requires estimates of population viability metrics, such as underlying vital rates and trends in abundance. Although rarely quantified, assessing vital rates for recovering populations provides a more mechanistic understanding of population growth than numerical trends in population occupancy or abundance. We used three years of capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding ponds and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival for reintroduced populations of the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis) at the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), in the Altar Valley, Arizona, USA. To place our results in context, we also compiled published survival estimates for other ranids. Average apparent survival of Chiricahua Leopard Frogs at BANWR was 0.27 (95% CI [0.07, 0.74]) and average individual capture probability was 0.02 (95% CI [0, 0.05]). Our apparent survival estimate for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs is lower than for most other ranids and is not consistent with recent research that showed metapopulation viability in the Altar Valley is high. We suggest that low apparent survival may be indicative of high emigration rates. We recommend that future research should estimate emigration rates so that actual, rather than apparent, survival can be quantified to improve population viability assessments of threatened species following reintroduction efforts.

  3. Estimation of transfused red cell survival using an enzyme-linked antiglobulin test

    SciTech Connect

    Kickler, T.S.; Smith, B.; Bell, W.; Drew, H.; Baldwin, M.; Ness, P.M.

    1985-09-01

    An enzyme-linked antiglobulin test (ELAT) method was developed to estimate survival of transfused red cells. This procedure is based on a principle analogous to that of the Ashby technique were antigenically distinct red cells are transfused and their survival studied. The authors compared the ELAT survival to the V Chromium method (V Cr) in four patients. Three patients with hypoproliferative anemias showed T 1/2 by ELAT of 17.5, 18, and 17 days versus 18.5, 20, and 19 days by the V Cr method. A fourth patient with traumatic cardiac hemolysis had two studies performed. In this case, the ELAT showed a T 1/2 of 10 and 8.1 days while V Cr T 1/2 values were 11 and 10.5 days. The ELAT method for measuring red cell survival yielded data which agreed closely with the results of the V Cr method. Although V Cr is the accepted method for red cell survival, the ELAT method can be used to estimate transfused red cell survival.

  4. Estimating Survival and Recruitment in a Freshwater Mussel Population Using Mark-recapture Techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Villella, R.F.; Smith, D.R.; Lemarie, D.P.

    2004-01-01

    We used a mark-recapture method and model averaging to estimate apparent survival, recruitment and rate of population growth in a native freshwater mussel population at a site on the Cacapon River, which is a tributary to the Potomac River. Over 2200 Elliptio complanata, E. fisheriana and Lampsilis cariosa were uniquely tagged over a period of 4 y. Recapture probabilities were higher in spring and summer than in winter except for L. cariosa which had a low probability of recapture regardless of time of year. All three species had high annual adult survival rates (>90%) with lower estimated survival of small (???55 mm) mussels (43%-69%). The variation in apparent survival over time was similar for all three species. This suggests that whatever environmental variables affect survival of mussels in this site affected all three species the same. Recruitment rates were low (1-4%) for both E. complanata and L. cariosa, with E. fisheriana having several periods of high (15-23%) recruitment. Distribution within the site was affected by both downstream and upstream movement, though movement rates were generally <1%. Average population growth rates for E. complanata (?? = 0.996, SE = 0.053), L. cariosa (?? = 0.993, SE = 0.076) and E. fisheriana (?? = 1.084, SE = 0.276) indicated static populations. Population growth rate approximating 1.0 suggests this site supports a stable freshwater mussel population through a life history strategy of low but constant recruitment and high annual adult survival.

  5. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1999-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates of neotropical birds have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses of a multispecies assemblage from Panama by Karr et al. (1990) provided a counterexample to that view. One criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses indicate that these models are indeed useful in modelling the data from Panama. Nonetheless, there is considerable interspecific variation and overall estimates of annual survival rates for understorey birds in Panama remain lower than those from other studies in the Neotropics and well below the rates long assumed for tropical birds (i.e. > 0.80). Therefore, tropical birds may not have systematically higher survival rates than temperate-zone species. Variation in survival rates among tropical species suggests that theory based on a simple tradeoff between clutch size and longevity is inadequate. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to some combination of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding these processes is the challenge for future work.

  6. [Nonparametric method of estimating survival functions containing right-censored and interval-censored data].

    PubMed

    Xu, Yonghong; Gao, Xiaohuan; Wang, Zhengxi

    2014-04-01

    Missing data represent a general problem in many scientific fields, especially in medical survival analysis. Dealing with censored data, interpolation method is one of important methods. However, most of the interpolation methods replace the censored data with the exact data, which will distort the real distribution of the censored data and reduce the probability of the real data falling into the interpolation data. In order to solve this problem, we in this paper propose a nonparametric method of estimating the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data and compare its performance to SC (self-consistent) algorithm. Comparing to the average interpolation and the nearest neighbor interpolation method, the proposed method in this paper replaces the right-censored data with the interval-censored data, and greatly improves the probability of the real data falling into imputation interval. Then it bases on the empirical distribution theory to estimate the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data. The results of numerical examples and a real breast cancer data set demonstrated that the proposed method had higher accuracy and better robustness for the different proportion of the censored data. This paper provides a good method to compare the clinical treatments performance with estimation of the survival data of the patients. This pro vides some help to the medical survival data analysis.

  7. Estimating Sonoran pronghorn abundance and survival with fecal DNA and capture-recapture methods.

    PubMed

    Woodruff, Susannah P; Lukacs, Paul M; Christianson, David; Waits, Lisette P

    2016-10-01

    Population abundance estimates are important for management but can be challenging to determine in low-density, wide-ranging, and endangered species, such as Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis). The Sonoran pronghorn population has been increasing; however, population estimates are currently derived from a biennial aerial count that does not provide survival or recruitment estimates. We identified individuals through noninvasively collected fecal DNA and used robust-design capture-recapture to estimate abundance and survival for Sonoran pronghorn in the United States from 2013 to 2014. In 2014 we generated separate population estimates for pronghorn gathered near 13 different artificial water holes and for pronghorn not near water holes. The population using artificial water holes had 116 (95% CI 102-131) and 121 individuals (95% CI 112-132) in 2013 and 2014, respectively. For all locations, we estimated there were 144 individuals (95% CI 132-157). Adults had higher annual survival probabilities (0.83, 95% CI 0.69-0.92) than fawns (0.41, 95% CI 0.21-0.65). Our use of targeted noninvasive genetic sampling and capture-recapture with Sonoran pronghorn fecal DNA was an effective method for monitoring a large proportion of the population. Our results provided the first survival estimates for this population in over 2 decades and precise estimates of the population using artificial water holes. Our method could be used for targeted sampling of broadly distributed species in other systems, such as in African savanna ecosystems, where many species congregate at watering sites.

  8. The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

    PubMed Central

    Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

  9. Unbiased survival estimates and evidence for skipped breeding opportunities in females

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, Rick D.; Lambert, Brad A.

    2010-01-01

    5. Establishing the occurrence of temporary emigration not only reduces bias in estimates of survival probabilities but also provides information about expected breeding attempts by females, a critical element in understanding the ecology of an organism and the impacts of outside stressors and conservation actions.

  10. Survival estimates of wild and captive-bred released Puaiohi, an endangered Hawaiian thrush

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    VanderWerf, Eric; Crampton, Lisa H.; Diegmann, Julia; Atkinson, Carter T.; Leonard, David L.

    2014-01-01

    Estimating and monitoring adult and juvenile survival are vital to understanding population status, informing recovery planning for endangered species, and quantifying the success of management. We used mark–recapture models to estimate apparent annual survival of the Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri), an endangered thrush endemic to the Hawaiian island of Kauai, from 2005 to 2011. Our sample included 87 wild birds and 123 captive-bred birds that were released at various ages. Survival was higher for wild adult males (0.71 ± 0.09) than for wild adult females (0.46 ± 0.12). Survival of wild juveniles (0.23 ± 0.06) was lower than that of wild adults of both sexes, indicating that recruitment may limit population growth. Captive-bred birds released when <1 yr old had survival (0.26 ± 0.21) comparable with that of wild juveniles, but captive-bred birds released at 1–3 yr old had very low survival (0.05 ± 0.06). Only 8 of 123 (7%) captive birds were seen again after release. Two wild birds resighted five years after marking are the oldest known individuals, being at least six years of age. Malarial infection did not affect survival of wild Puaiohi, unlike many Hawaiian forest birds. The difference between adult male and adult female survival is consistent with rat (Rattusspp.) predation of females on the nest as a major source of mortality. As such, attempting to reduce nest predation by controlling rats may be the best available management option. Releasing captive-bred birds has had little effect on the wild population in recent years.

  11. Low survival rates of Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides) estimated from neck-collar resighting and telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Choi, Chang-Yong; Lee, Ki-Sup; Poyarkov, Nikolay D.; Park, Jin-Young; Lee, Hansoo; Takekawa, John; Smith, Lacy M.; Ely, Craig R.; Wang, Xin; Cao, Lei; Fox, Anthony D.; Goroshko, Oleg; Batbayar, Nyambayar; Prosser, Diann J.; Xiao, Xiangming

    2016-01-01

    Waterbird survival rates are a key component of demographic modeling used for effective conservation of long-lived threatened species. The Swan Goose (Anser cygnoides) is globally threatened and the most vulnerable goose species endemic to East Asia due to its small and rapidly declining population. To address a current knowledge gap in demographic parameters of the Swan Goose, available datasets were compiled from neck-collar resighting and telemetry studies, and two different models were used to estimate their survival rates. Results of a mark-resighting model using 15 years of neck-collar data (2001–2015) provided age-dependent survival rates and season-dependent encounter rates with a constant neck-collar retention rate. Annual survival rate was 0.638 (95% CI: 0.378–0.803) for adults and 0.122 (95% CI: 0.028–0.286) for first-year juveniles. Known-fate models were applied to the single season of telemetry data (autumn 2014) and estimated a mean annual survival rate of 0.408 (95% CI: 0.152–0.670) with higher but non-significant differences for adults (0.477) vs. juveniles (0.306). Our findings indicate that Swan Goose survival rates are comparable to the lowest rates reported for European or North American goose species. Poor survival may be a key demographic parameter contributing to their declining trend. Quantitative threat assessments and associated conservation measures, such as restricting hunting, may be a key step to mitigate for their low survival rates and maintain or enhance their population.

  12. Renal transplantation in children less than 5 years of age.

    PubMed Central

    Rizzoni, G; Malekzadeh, M H; Pennisi, A J; Ettenger, R B; Uittenbogaart, C H; Fine, R N

    1980-01-01

    19 young children (less than 5 years old) have received 31 renal transplants from 4 live relatives and 27 cadaver donors. The 2-year allograft survival rate for the patients receiving their 1st allograft from the 4 live donors was 75 +/- 22% while for the patients receiving their 1st allograft from 15 cadaver donors was 26 +/- 11%. 10 children are currently surviving with functioning allographs (7 cadavers and 3 live relatives); 4 have died and 5 are undergoing dialysis after the loss of at least one allograft. Despite the poor allograft survival rate the fact that 7 children are surviving with cadaver allografts indicates that the lack of a living related donor should not prevent transplants in young children. PMID:7002060

  13. Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] <2 %) and confidence interval coverage close to nominal, except for survival estimates of banded birds for the 'off study area' stratum, which were negatively biased (RBIAS -7 to -15%) when sample sizes were small (5-10 banded or radioed animals 'released' per time interval). To provide

  14. Movement patterns and study area boundaries: Influences on survival estimation in capture-mark-recapture studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Horton, G.E.; Letcher, B.H.

    2008-01-01

    The inability to account for the availability of individuals in the study area during capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies and the resultant confounding of parameter estimates can make correct interpretation of CMR model parameter estimates difficult. Although important advances based on the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model have resulted in estimators of true survival that work by unconfounding either death or recapture probability from availability for capture in the study area, these methods rely on the researcher's ability to select a method that is correctly matched to emigration patterns in the population. If incorrect assumptions regarding site fidelity (non-movement) are made, it may be difficult or impossible as well as costly to change the study design once the incorrect assumption is discovered. Subtleties in characteristics of movement (e.g. life history-dependent emigration, nomads vs territory holders) can lead to mixtures in the probability of being available for capture among members of the same population. The result of these mixtures may be only a partial unconfounding of emigration from other CMR model parameters. Biologically-based differences in individual movement can combine with constraints on study design to further complicate the problem. Because of the intricacies of movement and its interaction with other parameters in CMR models, quantification of and solutions to these problems are needed. Based on our work with stream-dwelling populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, we used a simulation approach to evaluate existing CMR models under various mixtures of movement probabilities. The Barker joint data model provided unbiased estimates of true survival under all conditions tested. The CJS and robust design models provided similarly unbiased estimates of true survival but only when emigration information could be incorporated directly into individual encounter histories. For the robust design model, Markovian emigration (future

  15. Survival estimates for elite male and female Olympic athletes and tennis championship competitors.

    PubMed

    Coate, D; Sun, R

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, we report survival estimates for male and female Olympic medal winners and for male and female finalists at the British and U S national tennis championships. We find a consistent longevity advantage of Olympic medal-winning female athletes over Olympic medal-winning male athletes competing separately in the same events since 1900 and for female finalists over male finalists competing separately in the finals of the national tennis championships of Britain and of the United States since the 1880s. This is the case for sample mean comparisons, for Kaplan-Meier survival function estimates, including life expectancy, and for Cox proportional hazard estimates, which show statistically significant lower hazard rates for women with birth year and other variables constant. The female longevity advantage over males is similar in the early period samples (birth years before 1920) and in the full period samples, and is 5-7 years.

  16. Testing assumptions for unbiased estimation of survival of radiomarked harlequin ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esler, Daniel; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Jarvis, Robert L.

    2000-01-01

    Unbiased estimates of survival based on individuals outfitted with radiotransmitters require meeting the assumptions that radios do not affect survival, and animals for which the radio signal is lost have the same survival probability as those for which fate is known. In most survival studies, researchers have made these assumptions without testing their validity. We tested these assumptions by comparing interannual recapture rates (and, by inference, survival) between radioed and unradioed adult female harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus), and for radioed females, between right-censored birds (i.e., those for which the radio signal was lost during the telemetry monitoring period) and birds with known fates. We found that recapture rates of birds equipped with implanted radiotransmitters (21.6 ± 3.0%; x̄ ± SE) were similar to unradioed birds (21.7 ± 8.6%), suggesting that radios did not affect survival. Recapture rates also were similar between right-censored (20.6 ± 5.1%) and known-fate individuals (22.1 ± 3.8%), suggesting that missing birds were not subject to differential mortality. We also determined that capture and handling resulted in short-term loss of body mass for both radioed and unradioed females and that this effect was more pronounced for radioed birds (the difference between groups was 15.4 ± 7.1 g). However, no difference existed in body mass after recapture 1 year later. Our study suggests that implanted radios are an unbiased method for estimating survival of harlequin ducks and likely other species under similar circumstances.

  17. Variance estimation when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2016-12-30

    Propensity score methods are used to reduce the effects of observed confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments or exposures. A popular method of using the propensity score is inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). When using this method, a weight is calculated for each subject that is equal to the inverse of the probability of receiving the treatment that was actually received. These weights are then incorporated into the analyses to minimize the effects of observed confounding. Previous research has found that these methods result in unbiased estimation when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes. However, conventional methods of variance estimation were shown to result in biased estimates of standard error. In this study, we conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations to examine different methods of variance estimation when using a weighted Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the effect of treatment. We considered three variance estimation methods: (i) a naïve model-based variance estimator; (ii) a robust sandwich-type variance estimator; and (iii) a bootstrap variance estimator. We considered estimation of both the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect in the treated. We found that the use of a bootstrap estimator resulted in approximately correct estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates. The other estimators resulted in biased estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with incorrect coverage rates. Our simulations were informed by a case study examining the effect of statin prescribing on mortality. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Inferring population trends for the world's largest fish from mark-recapture estimates of survival.

    PubMed

    Bradshaw, Corey J A; Mollet, Henry F; Meekan, Mark G

    2007-05-01

    1. Precise estimates of demographic rates are key components of population models used to predict the effects of stochastic environmental processes, harvest scenarios and extinction probability. 2. We used a 12-year photographic identification library of whale sharks from Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia to construct Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model estimates of survival within a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) framework. Estimated survival rates, population structure and assumptions regarding age at maturity, longevity and reproduction frequency were combined in a series of age-classified Leslie matrices to infer the potential trajectory of the population. 3. Using data from 111 individuals, there was evidence for time variation in apparent survival (phi) and recapture probability (p). The null model gave a phi of 0.825 (95% CI: 0.727-0.893) and p = 0.184 (95% CI: 0.121-0.271). The model-averaged annual phi ranged from 0.737 to 0.890. There was little evidence for a sex effect on survival. 4. Using standardized total length as a covariate in the CMR models indicated a size bias in phi. Ignoring the effects of time, a 5-m shark has a phi = 0.59 and a 9 m shark has phi = 0.81. 5. Of the 16 model combinations considered, 10 (63%) indicated a decreasing population (lambda < 1). For models based on age at first reproduction (alpha) of 13 years, the mean age of reproducing females at the stable age distribution (A) ranged from 15 to 23 years, which increased to 29-37 years when alpha was assumed to be 25. 6. All model scenarios had higher total elasticities for non-reproductive female survival [E(s(nr))] compared to those for reproductive female survival [E(s(r))]. 7. Assuming relatively slow, but biologically realistic, vital rates (alpha = 25 and biennial reproduction) and size-biased survival probabilities, our results suggest that the Ningaloo Reef population of whale sharks is declining, although more reproductive data are clearly needed to confirm this conclusion

  19. Designing a monitoring program to estimate estuarine survival of anadromous salmon smolts: simulating the effect of sample design on inference

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  20. Designing a Monitoring Program to Estimate Estuarine Survival of Anadromous Salmon Smolts: Simulating the Effect of Sample Design on Inference.

    PubMed

    Romer, Jeremy D; Gitelman, Alix I; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  1. Optimal estimation for regression models on τ-year survival probability.

    PubMed

    Kwak, Minjung; Kim, Jinseog; Jung, Sin-Ho

    2015-01-01

    A logistic regression method can be applied to regressing the [Formula: see text]-year survival probability to covariates, if there are no censored observations before time [Formula: see text]. But if some observations are incomplete due to censoring before time [Formula: see text], then the logistic regression cannot be applied. Jung (1996) proposed to modify the score function for logistic regression to accommodate the right-censored observations. His modified score function, motivated for a consistent estimation of regression parameters, becomes a regular logistic score function if no observations are censored before time [Formula: see text]. In this article, we propose a modification of Jung's estimating function for an optimal estimation for the regression parameters in addition to consistency. We prove that the optimal estimator is more efficient than Jung's estimator. This theoretical comparison is illustrated with a real example data analysis and simulations.

  2. Comparison of conditional bias-adjusted estimators for interim analysis in clinical trials with survival data.

    PubMed

    Shimura, Masashi; Gosho, Masahiko; Hirakawa, Akihiro

    2017-02-17

    Group sequential designs are widely used in clinical trials to determine whether a trial should be terminated early. In such trials, maximum likelihood estimates are often used to describe the difference in efficacy between the experimental and reference treatments; however, these are well known for displaying conditional and unconditional biases. Established bias-adjusted estimators include the conditional mean-adjusted estimator (CMAE), conditional median unbiased estimator, conditional uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (CUMVUE), and weighted estimator. However, their performances have been inadequately investigated. In this study, we review the characteristics of these bias-adjusted estimators and compare their conditional bias, overall bias, and conditional mean-squared errors in clinical trials with survival endpoints through simulation studies. The coverage probabilities of the confidence intervals for the four estimators are also evaluated. We find that the CMAE reduced conditional bias and showed relatively small conditional mean-squared errors when the trials terminated at the interim analysis. The conditional coverage probability of the conditional median unbiased estimator was well below the nominal value. In trials that did not terminate early, the CUMVUE performed with less bias and an acceptable conditional coverage probability than was observed for the other estimators. In conclusion, when planning an interim analysis, we recommend using the CUMVUE for trials that do not terminate early and the CMAE for those that terminate early. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Novel estimates of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult survival based on Wolbachia releases.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Scott A; Montgomery, Brian L; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2013-05-01

    The size of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito populations and adult survival rates have proven difficult to estimate because of a lack of consistent quantitative measures to equate sampling methods, such as adult trapping, to actual population size. However, such estimates are critical for devising control methods and for modeling the transmission of dengue and other infectious agents carried by this species. Here we take advantage of recent releases of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti coupled with the results of ongoing monitoring to estimate the size of adult Ae. aegypti populations around Cairns in far north Queensland, Australia. Based on the association between released adults infected with Wolbachia and data from Biogents Sentinel traps, we show that data from two locations are consistent with population estimates of approximately 5-10 females per house and daily survival rates of 0.7-0.9 for the released Wolbachia-infected females. Moreover, we estimate that networks of Biogents Sentinel traps at a density of one per 15 houses capture around 5-10% of the adult population per week, and provide a rapid estimate of the absolute population size of Ae. aegypti. These data are discussed with respect to release rates and monitoring in future Wolbachia releases and also the levels of suppression required to reduce dengue transmission.

  4. Band reporting rates of waterfowl: does individual heterogeneity bias estimated survival rates?

    PubMed Central

    White, Gary C; Cordes, Line S; Arnold, Todd W

    2013-01-01

    In capture–recapture studies, the estimation accuracy of demographic parameters is essential to the efficacy of management of hunted animal populations. Dead recovery models based upon the reporting of rings or bands are often used for estimating survival of waterfowl and other harvested species. However, distance from the ringing site or condition of the bird may introduce substantial individual heterogeneity in the conditional band reporting rates (r), which could cause bias in estimated survival rates (S) or suggest nonexistent individual heterogeneity in S. To explore these hypotheses, we ran two sets of simulations (n = 1000) in MARK using Seber's dead recovery model, allowing time variation on both S and r. This included a series of heterogeneity models, allowing substantial variation on logit(r), and control models with no heterogeneity. We conducted simulations using two different values of S: S = 0.60, which would be typical of dabbling ducks such as mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and S = 0.80, which would be more typical of sea ducks or geese. We chose a mean reporting rate on the logit scale of −1.9459 with SD = 1.5 for the heterogeneity models (producing a back-transformed mean of 0.196 with SD = 0.196, median = 0.125) and a constant reporting rate for the control models of 0.196. Within these sets of simulations, estimation models where σS = 0 and σS > 0 (σS is SD of individual survival rates on the logit scale) were incorporated to investigate whether real heterogeneity in r would induce apparent individual heterogeneity in S. Models where σS = 0 were selected approximately 91% of the time over models where σS > 0. Simulation results showed < 0.05% relative bias in estimating survival rates except for models estimating σS > 0 when true S = 0.8, where relative bias was a modest 0.5%. These results indicate that considerable variation in reporting rates does not cause major bias in estimated survival rates of waterfowl, further highlighting

  5. Estimating and modeling the cure fraction in population-based cancer survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Paul C; Thompson, John R; Weston, Claire L; Dickman, Paul W

    2007-07-01

    In population-based cancer studies, cure is said to occur when the mortality (hazard) rate in the diseased group of individuals returns to the same level as that expected in the general population. The cure fraction (the proportion of patients cured of disease) is of interest to patients and is a useful measure to monitor trends in survival of curable disease. There are 2 main types of cure fraction model, the mixture cure fraction model and the non-mixture cure fraction model, with most previous work concentrating on the mixture cure fraction model. In this paper, we extend the parametric non-mixture cure fraction model to incorporate background mortality, thus providing estimates of the cure fraction in population-based cancer studies. We compare the estimates of relative survival and the cure fraction between the 2 types of model and also investigate the importance of modeling the ancillary parameters in the selected parametric distribution for both types of model.

  6. Robustness of survival estimates from radio-telemetry studies with uncertain relocation of individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bunck, C.M.; Chen, C.-L.; Pollock, K.H.

    1995-01-01

    Traditional methods of estimating survival from radio-telemetry studies use either the Trent-Rongstad approach (Trent and Rongstad 1974, Heisey and Fuller 1985) or the Kaplan-Meier approach (Kaplan and Meier 1958; Pollock et al. 1989a,b). Both methods appear to require the assumption that relocation probability for animals with a functioning radio is 1. In practice this may not always be reasonable and, in fact, is unnecessary. The number of animals at risk (i.e., risk set) can be modified to account for uncertain relocation of individuals. This involves including only relocated animals in the risk set instead of also including animals not relocated but that were seen later. Simulation results show that estimators and tests for comparing survival curves should be based on this modification.

  7. Sex ratio estimation and survival analysis for Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata, Libellulidae)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, M.; Juillerat, L.

    2004-01-01

    There is controversy over whether uneven sex ratios observed in mature dragonfly populations are a mere artifact resulting from the higher observability of males. Previous studies have at best made indirect inference about sex ratios by analysis of survival or recapture rates. Here, we obtain direct estimates of sex ratio from capture?recapture data based on the Cormack?Jolly?Seber model. We studied Orthetrum coerulescens (Fabricius, 1798) at three sites in the Swiss Jura Mountains over an entire activity period. Recapture rates per 5-day interval were 3.5 times greater for males (0.67, SE 0.02) than for females (0.19, SE 0.02). At two sites, recapture rate increased over the season for males and was constant for females, and at one site it decreased with precipitation for both sexes. In addition, recapture rate was higher with higher temperature for males only. We found no evidence for higher male survival rates in any population. Survival per 5-day interval for both sexes was estimated to be 0.77 (95% CI 0.75?0.79) without significant site or time-specific variation. There were clear effects of temperature (positive) and precipitation (negative) on survival rate at two sites. Direct estimates of sex ratios were not significantly different from 1 for any time interval. Hence, the observed male-biased sex ratio in adult O. coerulescens was an artifact resulting from the better observability of males. The method presented in this paper is applicable to sex ratio estimation in any kind of animal.

  8. Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holbrook, Christopher M.; Perry, Russell W.; Brandes, Patricia L.; Adams, Noah S.

    2013-01-01

    In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

  9. Estimating survival and breeding probability for pond-breeding amphibians: a modified robust design

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Wilbur, H.M.

    2004-01-01

    Many studies of pond-breeding amphibians involve sampling individuals during migration to and from breeding habitats. Interpreting population processes and dynamics from these studies is difficult because (1) only a proportion of the population is observable each season, while an unknown proportion remains unobservable (e.g., non-breeding adults) and (2) not all observable animals are captured. Imperfect capture probability can be easily accommodated in capture?recapture models, but temporary transitions between observable and unobservable states, often referred to as temporary emigration, is known to cause problems in both open- and closed-population models. We develop a multistate mark?recapture (MSMR) model, using an open-robust design that permits one entry and one exit from the study area per season. Our method extends previous temporary emigration models (MSMR with an unobservable state) in two ways. First, we relax the assumption of demographic closure (no mortality) between consecutive (secondary) samples, allowing estimation of within-pond survival. Also, we add the flexibility to express survival probability of unobservable individuals (e.g., ?non-breeders?) as a function of the survival probability of observable animals while in the same, terrestrial habitat. This allows for potentially different annual survival probabilities for observable and unobservable animals. We apply our model to a relictual population of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). Despite small sample sizes, demographic parameters were estimated with reasonable precision. We tested several a priori biological hypotheses and found evidence for seasonal differences in pond survival. Our methods could be applied to a variety of pond-breeding species and other taxa where individuals are captured entering or exiting a common area (e.g., spawning or roosting area, hibernacula).

  10. Apparent Survival Rates of Forest Birds in Eastern Ecuador Revisited: Improvement in Precision but No Change in Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Blake, John G.; Loiselle, Bette A.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae) from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate) was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE) across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02) when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs = −0.72) and recaptures (rs = −0.93, P<0.001 in both cases). Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient. PMID:24312519

  11. Apparent survival rates of forest birds in eastern Ecuador revisited: improvement in precision but no change in estimates.

    PubMed

    Blake, John G; Loiselle, Bette A

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae) from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate) was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE) across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02) when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs  = -0.72) and recaptures (rs  = -0.93, P<0.001 in both cases). Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient.

  12. Soviet business chaos seen lasting 5 years

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-12-16

    This paper reports that companies seeking work in the collapsing Soviet Union can expect political uncertainty for another 5 years. PW discussed changes in the Soviet Union and offered advice on dealing with officials of the central government and Soviet republics at a recent meeting in Houston with executives of oil field service companies. That meeting preceded reports of the Russian federation, Ukraine, and Byelorussia agreeing to form a Slavic commonwealth.

  13. On differences in radiosensitivity estimation: TCP experiments versus survival curves. A theoretical study.

    PubMed

    Stavrev, Pavel; Stavreva, Nadejda; Ruggieri, Ruggero; Nahum, Alan

    2015-08-07

    We have compared two methods of estimating the cellular radiosensitivity of a heterogeneous tumour, namely, via cell-survival and via tumour control probability (TCP) pseudo-experiments. It is assumed that there exists intra-tumour variability in radiosensitivity and that the tumour consists predominantly of radiosensitive cells and a small number of radio-resistant cells.Using a multi-component, linear-quadratic (LQ) model of cell kill, a pseudo-experimental cell-survival versus dose curve is derived. This curve is then fitted with a mono-component LQ model describing the response of a homogeneous cell population. For the assumed variation in radiosensitivity it is shown that the composite pseudo-experimental survival curve is well approximated by the survival curve of cells with uniform radiosensitivity.For the same initial cell radiosensitivity distribution several pseudo-experimental TCP curves are simulated corresponding to different fractionation regimes. The TCP model used accounts for clonogen proliferation during a fractionated treatment. The set of simulated TCP curves is then fitted with a mono-component TCP model. As in the cell survival experiment the fit with a mono-component model assuming uniform radiosensitivity is shown to be highly acceptable.However, the best-fit values of cellular radiosensitivity produced via the two methods are very different. The cell-survival pseudo-experiment yields a high radiosensitivity value, while the TCP pseudo-experiment shows that the dose-response is dominated by the most resistant sub-population in the tumour, even when this is just a small fraction of the total.

  14. On differences in radiosensitivity estimation: TCP experiments versus survival curves. A theoretical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrev, Pavel; Stavreva, Nadejda; Ruggieri, Ruggero; Nahum, Alan

    2015-08-01

    We have compared two methods of estimating the cellular radiosensitivity of a heterogeneous tumour, namely, via cell-survival and via tumour control probability (TCP) pseudo-experiments. It is assumed that there exists intra-tumour variability in radiosensitivity and that the tumour consists predominantly of radiosensitive cells and a small number of radio-resistant cells. Using a multi-component, linear-quadratic (LQ) model of cell kill, a pseudo-experimental cell-survival versus dose curve is derived. This curve is then fitted with a mono-component LQ model describing the response of a homogeneous cell population. For the assumed variation in radiosensitivity it is shown that the composite pseudo-experimental survival curve is well approximated by the survival curve of cells with uniform radiosensitivity. For the same initial cell radiosensitivity distribution several pseudo-experimental TCP curves are simulated corresponding to different fractionation regimes. The TCP model used accounts for clonogen proliferation during a fractionated treatment. The set of simulated TCP curves is then fitted with a mono-component TCP model. As in the cell survival experiment the fit with a mono-component model assuming uniform radiosensitivity is shown to be highly acceptable. However, the best-fit values of cellular radiosensitivity produced via the two methods are very different. The cell-survival pseudo-experiment yields a high radiosensitivity value, while the TCP pseudo-experiment shows that the dose-response is dominated by the most resistant sub-population in the tumour, even when this is just a small fraction of the total.

  15. Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

    1995-01-01

    We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

  16. Estimating annual survival and movement rates of adults within a metapopulation of roseate terns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hays, H.; Cormons, G.D.; Burger, J.; Safina, C.; Hines, J.E.; Gochfeld, M.

    1995-01-01

    Several multistratum capture-recapture models were used to test various hypotheses about possible geographic and temporal variation in survival, movement, and recapture/resighting probabilities of 2399 adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) color-banded from 1988 to 1992 at the sites of the four largest breeding colonies of this species in the northeastern USA. Linear-logistic ultrastructural models also were developed to investigate possible correlates of geographic variation in movement probabilities. Based on goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values, the fully parameterized model (Model A) with time- and location-specific survival, movement, and capture probabilities, was selected as the most appropriate model for this metapopulation structure. With almost all movement accounted for, on average gt 90% of the surviving adults from each colony site returned to the same site the following year. Variations in movement probabilities were more closely associated with the identity of the destination colony site than with either the identity of the colony site of origin or the distance between colony sites. The average annual survival estimates (0.740.84) of terns from all four sites indicate a high rate of annual mortality relative to that of other species of marine birds.

  17. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634–3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365–16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  18. [Fissure sealants--5 years of use].

    PubMed

    Azul, A M

    1990-01-01

    This study assesses the caries prevalence, retention and cost-effectiveness of a pit and fissure sealant in a children population with 622 cases, 5 years after a single application of an auto-polymerized sealant to permanent molars. The status of the sealant and the presence of caries or restaurations on the sealed teeth was assessed. In a self-controlled group of children, the prevalence of disease (caries and restaurations) was also assessed in non-sealed teeth, for comparison. The sealant application was compared with Class I-restauration with amalgam for cost-effectiveness analysis.

  19. Modeling and estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.

    2000-01-01

    In studies of avian nesting success, it is often of interest to estimate stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests. When data can be partitioned by nesting stage (e.g., incubation stage, nestling stage), piecewise application of the Mayfield method or Johnsona??s method is appropriate. However, when the data contain nests where the transition from one stage to the next occurred during the interval between visits, piecewise approaches are inappropriate. In this paper, I present a model that allows joint estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities even when the time of transition between stages is unknown. The model allows interval lengths between visits to nests to vary, and the exact time of failure of nests does not need to be known. The performance of the model at various sample sizes and interval lengths between visits was investigated using Monte Carlo simulations, and it was found that the model performed quite well: bias was small and confidence-interval coverage was at the nominal 95% rate. A SAS program for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and their standard errors, is provided in the Appendix.

  20. Impact of Disease Progression Date Determination on Progression-free Survival Estimates in Advanced Lung Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Qi, Yingwei; Ziegler, Allen; Katie, L.; Hillman, Shauna L.; Redman, Mary W.; Schild, Steven E.; Gandara, David R.; Adjei, Alex A.; Mandrekar, Sumithra J.

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE Progression-free survival (PFS) based endpoints are controversial; however in advanced lung cancer, overall survival is largely influenced by the progression status. We thus evaluated the impact of progression date (PD) determination approach on PFS estimates. METHODS Individual patient data from 21 trials (14 NCCTG; 7 SWOG) were used. Reported progression date (RPD) was defined as either the scan date or the clinical deterioration date. PD was determined using 4 methods (M): RPD (M1), one day after last progression-free scan (M2), midpoint between last progression-free scan and RPD (M3), and using an interval censoring approach (M4). PFS was estimated using Kaplan-Meier (M1, M2, M3), and maximum likelihood (M4). Simulation studies were performed to understand the impact of the length of time elapsed between the last progression-free scan and the PD on time to progression (TTP) estimates. RESULTS PFS estimates using RPD were the highest, with M2 being the most conservative. M3 and M4 were similar due to majority of progressions occurring during treatment (i.e., frequent disease assessments). M3 was less influenced by the length of the assessment schedules (%difference from true TTP <1.5%) compared to M1 (11% to 30%) and M2 (-8% to -29%). The overall study conclusion was unaffected by the method used for randomized trials. CONCLUSION The magnitude of difference in the PFS estimates is large enough to alter trial conclusions in advanced lung cancer. Standards for PD determination, use of sensitivity analyses, and randomized trials are critical when designing trials and reporting efficacy using PFS based endpoints. PMID:22434489

  1. Cystic fibrosis: current survival and population estimates to the year 2000.

    PubMed Central

    Elborn, J S; Shale, D J; Britton, J R

    1991-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Survival from cystic fibrosis is increasing rapidly. Estimates of the extent of this improvement should allow health care facilities to be planned to deal with the expanding population of patients with cystic fibrosis. Estimates of life expectancy are also essential if accurate information on current prognosis is to be given to parents of an affected child, or to prospective parents deciding whether to proceed with a pregnancy where the fetus may be affected. METHODS: Survival trends in the national data on cystic fibrosis have been analysed to produce estimates of the likely size of the cystic fibrosis population over the next decade and to predict the life expectancy of children born with cystic fibrosis in the years up to 1990. RESULTS: In England and Wales the estimated number of patients with cystic fibrosis is at present about 5200, of whom 3300 (63%) are aged under 16 years. By the year 2000 the total population will increase to 6000, with 3400 (57%) aged under 16. Thus the number of children with cystic fibrosis will remain fairly constant over the next 10 years, whereas adult numbers will increase by about 36% (from 1901 to 2577). The median life expectancy of children with cystic fibrosis born in 1990 is estimated to be 40 years, double that of 20 years ago. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that health service provision for children will not need to change substantially over the next 10 years whereas services for adults will need to increase by about a third. Parents can be counselled that the median life expectancy of a newborn child with cystic fibrosis is currently likely to be of the order of 40 years. PMID:1792634

  2. Survival estimates of migrant juvenile Salmonids through Bonneville Dam using radio telemetry, 2004

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Counihan, Timothy D.; Hardiman, Jill; Walker, Chris; Puls, Amy; Holmberg , Glen

    2006-01-01

    During 2004, the USGS evaluated the survival of radio-tagged yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and steelhead trout through the ice and trash sluiceway and the minimum gap runner (MGR) turbine unit at Bonneville Dam’s powerhouse 1. Survival was estimated using paired release-recapture models with paired releases made directly into these passage routes and in the tailrace of Bonneville Dam. For the evaluations of survival through the MGR two separate control release locations were used; one location was directly downstream of the front roll below the turbine unit and the other release location was further downstream of the powerhouse 2 juvenile bypass outfall. During spring and summer releases of radio-tagged fish into the MGR and the ice and trash sluiceway, powerhouse 1 was not continuously operated due to a policy that prioritized the passage of water through powerhouse 2. Because of this policy, powerhouse 1 was only operated sporadically for short time intervals before and after the releases of radiotagged fish associated with this study.

  3. Survival estimation in two-phase cohort studies with application to biomarkers evaluation.

    PubMed

    Rebora, Paola; Valsecchi, Maria Grazia

    2016-12-01

    Two-phase studies are attractive for their economy and efficiency in research settings where large cohorts are available for investigating the prognostic and predictive role of novel genetic and biological factors. In this type of study, information on novel factors is collected only in a convenient subcohort (phase II) drawn from the cohort (phase I) according to a given (optimal) sampling strategy. Estimation of survival in the subcohort needs to account for the design. The Kaplan-Meier method, based on counts of events and of subjects at risk in time, must be applied accounting, with suitable weights, for the sampling probabilities of the subjects in phase II, in order to recover the representativeness of the subcohort for the entire cohort. The authors derived a proper variance estimator of survival by linearization. The proposed method is applied in the context of a two-phase study on childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia, which was planned in order to evaluate the role of genetic polymorphisms on treatment failure due to relapse. The method has shown satisfactory performance through simulations under different scenarios, including the case-control setting, and proved to be useful for describing results in the clinical example.

  4. Multistate Models for Estimation of Survival and Reproduction in the Grey-headed Albatross (Thalassarche chrysostoma)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Kendall, William L.; Doherty, Paul F.; Ryan, Peter G.

    2009-01-01

    Reliable information on demography is necessary for conservation of albatrosses, the most threatened family of pelagic birds. Albatross survival has been estimated using mark?recapture data and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. However, albatross exhibit skipped breeding, violating assumptions of the CJS model. Multistate modeling integrating unobservable states is a promising tool for such situations. We applied multistate models to data on Grey-headed Albatross (Thalassarche chrysostoma) to evaluate model performance and describe demographic patterns. These included a multistate equivalent of the CJS model (MS-2), including successful and failed breeding states and ignoring temporary emigration, and three versions of a four-state multistate model that accounts for temporary emigration by integrating unobservable states: a model (MS-4) with one sample per breeding season, a robust design model (RDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and geographic closure within the season, and an open robust design model (ORDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and staggered entry and exit of animals within the season. Survival estimates from the MS-2 model were higher than those from the MS-4 model, which resulted in apparent percent relative bias averaging 2.2%. The ORDMS-4 model was more appropriate than the RDMS-4 model, given that staggered entry and exit occurred. Annual survival probability for Greyheaded Albatross at Marion Island was 0.951 ? 0.006 (SE), and the probability of skipped breeding in a subsequent year averaged 0.938 for successful and 0.163 for failed breeders. We recommend that multistate models with unobservable states, combined with robust-design sampling, be used in studies of species that exhibit temporary emigration.

  5. Crossbreeding parameter estimation for functional longevity in rabbits using survival analysis methodology.

    PubMed

    Piles, M; Sánchez, J P; Orengo, J; Rafel, O; Ramon, J; Baselga, M

    2006-01-01

    A complete diallel cross involving 3 maternal lines of rabbit was performed to estimate cross-breeding parameters for functional longevity. This trait was defined as the ability to delay involuntary culling. The lines considered, A, V, and Prat, had all been selected by litter size at weaning for a long period. Data were related to a total of 653 does belonging to the 9 genetic types from the diallel cross; does were reared and bred on the same commercial farm. Survival analysis was performed using a Cox proportional hazard model. The model incorporated time-dependent factors, such as year-season, litter size, and the interaction between cycle and physiological status of the female; time-independent factors, such as the genetic type of the doe; and sire and dam random factors. Crossbreeding parameters were estimated from the solutions obtained for the type of doe and its estimated variance-covariance matrix, using a generalized least squares procedure. The estimated parameters were the differences between lines in direct genetic effects and maternal genetic effects and individual heterosis. Relevant differences were observed in direct genetic effects between lines A and Prat but not in any maternal effects. Heterosis was found to be significant and favorable between lines A and Prat, and between the lines V and Prat. The magnitude of this effect was variable but important, especially in the first cross. Results stress the importance of using crosses between specialized lines to produce does for intensive meat rabbit production.

  6. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1993 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Iwamoto, Robert N.; Sandford, Benjamin P.; McIntyre, Kenneth W.

    1994-04-01

    A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at different areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers.

  7. Annual survival estimation of migratory songbirds confounded by incomplete breeding site-fidelity: Study designs that may help

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marshall, M.R.; Diefenbach, D.R.; Wood, L.A.; Cooper, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    Many species of bird exhibit varying degrees of site-fidelity to the previous year's territory or breeding area, a phenomenon we refer to as incomplete breeding site-fidelity. If the territory they occupy is located beyond the bounds of the study area or search area (i.e., they have emigrated from the study area), the bird will go undetected and is therefore indistinguishable from dead individuals in capture-mark-recapture studies. Differential emigration rates confound inferences regarding differences in survival between sexes and among species if apparent survival rates are used as estimates of true survival. Moreover, the bias introduced by using apparent survival rates for true survival rates can have profound effects on the predictions of population persistence through time, source/sink dynamics, and other aspects of life-history theory. We investigated four study design and analysis approaches that result in apparent survival estimates that are closer to true survival estimates. Our motivation for this research stemmed from a multi-year capture-recapture study of Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea) on multiple study plots within a larger landscape of suitable breeding habitat where substantial inter-annual movements of marked individuals among neighboring study plots was documented. We wished to quantify the effects of this type of movement on annual survival estimation. The first two study designs we investigated involved marking birds in a core area and resighting them in the core as well as an area surrounding the core. For the first of these two designs, we demonstrated that as the resighting area surrounding the core gets progressively larger, and more "emigrants" are resighted, apparent survival estimates begin to approximate true survival rates (bias < 0.01). However, given observed inter-annual movements of birds, it is likely to be logistically impractical to resight birds on sufficiently large surrounding areas to minimize bias. Therefore

  8. Implications of incomplete registration of deaths on long-term survival estimates from population-based cancer registries.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Hermann; Hakulinen, Timo

    2009-07-15

    International comparison of population-based cancer survival is a key component of monitoring progress against cancer. Its validity depends to an unknown degree on completeness of ascertainment of deaths in the cancer registries involved which may vary according to legal and administrative circumstances. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of incomplete registration of deaths through various mechanisms on the validity of long-term absolute and relative survival estimates. For that purpose, we simulated underascertainment of deaths through linkage failure of registry data with death certificates with probabilities between 0.1 and 5%, and underascertainment of deaths by unregistered annual emigration with probabilities between 0.05 and 2%, using data from the Finnish Cancer Registry. The expected impact on estimates of 5-, 10- and 15-year absolute and relative survival was assessed. We demonstrate that even modest levels of under-registration of deaths may lead to severe overestimation of long-term survival estimates, ranging from 0 to 31 percent units in the scenarios assessed. In general, relative survival is much more affected than absolute survival, and potential problems are much larger for relative survival estimates in older compared with younger patients. Potential overestimation strongly increases with length of follow-up, and this increase is particularly pronounced for under-registration of deaths because of unrecorded emigration. Every effort should be made in cancer registry based survival analyses to ascertain deaths with close to 100% completeness. When such completeness cannot be achieved, long-term relative survival estimates and their comparison across populations must be interpreted with much caution.

  9. Estimation of Listeria monocytogenes survival during thermoultrasonic treatments in non-isothermal conditions: Effect of ultrasound on temperature and survival profiles.

    PubMed

    Franco-Vega, Avelina; Ramírez-Corona, Nelly; López-Malo, Aurelio; Palou, Enrique

    2015-12-01

    Estimation of Listeria monocytogenes survival during thermoultrasonic treatments in non-isothermal conditions was determined considering an increment from 45 to 70 °C, assessing the adequacy of predictions through experimental data obtained in laboratory media model systems. In order to characterize the sonication effect on the survival pattern, observed behavior was compared to that obtained when only thermal treatment was applied. A noticeable impact on L. monocytogenes survival in non-isothermal conditions was observed when heat is combined with ultrasound, since the sonication effect modifies not only the temperature profile, but also the dynamic survival pattern. It was observed that both treatments were able to achieve a reduction of 5.5 log cycles of the initial population, although the inactivation temperature and the required time to reach such temperature were lower for thermoultrasonic treatments than for thermal treatments. Furthermore, as the temperature dependent parameters required to estimate the dynamic responses in non-isothermal treatments were initially determined from isothermal conditions, the sonication effect on these parameters and its implications for dynamic estimations, which are closely related to the nonlinearity of the systems, were also addressed; for thermal treatments, obtained isothermal curves were properly described by the Weibull model and first order kinetics, while for thermoultrasonication treatments a clear non-linear behavior was observed and only the Weibullian model was able to adequately describe the inactivation pattern.

  10. Non-parametric estimation of gap time survival functions for ordered multivariate failure time data.

    PubMed

    Schaubel, Douglas E; Cai, Jianwen

    2004-06-30

    Times between sequentially ordered events (gap times) are often of interest in biomedical studies. For example, in a cancer study, the gap times from incidence-to-remission and remission-to-recurrence may be examined. Such data are usually subject to right censoring, and within-subject failure times are generally not independent. Statistical challenges in the analysis of the second and subsequent gap times include induced dependent censoring and non-identifiability of the marginal distributions. We propose a non-parametric method for constructing one-sample estimators of conditional gap-time specific survival functions. The estimators are uniformly consistent and, upon standardization, converge weakly to a zero-mean Gaussian process, with a covariance function which can be consistently estimated. Simulation studies reveal that the asymptotic approximations are appropriate for finite samples. Methods for confidence bands are provided. The proposed methods are illustrated on a renal failure data set, where the probabilities of transplant wait-listing and kidney transplantation are of interest.

  11. Prevalent cases in observational studies of cancer survival: do they bias hazard ratio estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Azzato, E M; Greenberg, D; Shah, M; Blows, F; Driver, K E; Caporaso, N E; Pharoah, P D P

    2009-01-01

    Observational epidemiological studies often include prevalent cases recruited at various times past diagnosis. This left truncation can be dealt with in non-parametric (Kaplan–Meier) and semi-parametric (Cox) time-to-event analyses, theoretically generating an unbiased hazard ratio (HR) when the proportional hazards (PH) assumption holds. However, concern remains that inclusion of prevalent cases in survival analysis results inevitably in HR bias. We used data on three well-established breast cancer prognosticators – clinical stage, histopathological grade and oestrogen receptor (ER) status – from the SEARCH study, a population-based study including 4470 invasive breast cancer cases (incident and prevalent), to evaluate empirically the effectiveness of allowing for left truncation in limiting HR bias. We found that HRs of prognostic factors changed over time and used extended Cox models incorporating time-dependent covariates. When comparing Cox models restricted to subjects ascertained within six months of diagnosis (incident cases) to models based on the full data set allowing for left truncation, we found no difference in parameter estimates (P=0.90, 0.32 and 0.95, for stage, grade and ER status respectively). Our results show that use of prevalent cases in an observational epidemiological study of breast cancer does not bias the HR in a left truncation Cox survival analysis, provided the PH assumption holds true. PMID:19401693

  12. Capture-recapture estimation of prebreeding survival rate for birds exhibiting delayed maturation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.; Hines, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    Many species of seabirds exhibit delayed maturity and do not return to the natal colony to breed for several years after fledging. Capture-recapture studies are frequently conducted at such breeding colonies and often include marking of young birds. However, because of the absence of these birds from the natal colony during the first few years after banding, the data do not fit neatly into existing capture-recapture models. Here we present a method for estimating prebreeding survival rate from capture-recapture studies on species exhibiting such patterns of delayed maturation. We illustrate the method using data from a capture-recapture study of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii ) on Falkner Island, Connecticut. The method appears to work well and emphasizes the potential to tailor capture-recapture models to specific field situations.

  13. Osteoporosis and the risk of symptomatic nephrolithiasis: a population-based 5-year follow-up study in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Chou, Ping-Song; Kuo, Chun-Nan; Hung, Kuo-Sheng; Chang, Wei-Chiao; Liao, Yu-Chien; Chi, Ying-Chen; Chou, Wei-Po; Tsai, Shih-Jen; Liu, Mu-En; Lai, Chiou-Lian; Chou, Yii-Her; Chang, Wei-Pin

    2014-10-01

    This study estimates the risk of symptomatic nephrolithiasis within 5 years of newly diagnosed osteoporosis in a Taiwan population. This cohort study consisted of patients with a diagnosis of osteoporosis between Jan. 2003 and Dec. 2005 (N = 1634). Four age- and gender- matched patients for every patient in the study cohort were selected using random sampling as the comparison cohort (N = 6536). All patients were tracked for 5 years from the date of cohort entry to identify whether they developed symptomatic nephrolithiasis. Cox proportional hazard regressions were performed to evaluate the 5-year nephrolithiasis-free survival rates. During the 5-year follow-up period, 60 osteoporosis patients (3.7%) and 165 non- osteoporosis patients (2.5%) developed symptomatic nephrolithiasis. The adjusted HR of symptomatic nephrolithiasis was 1.38 times greater risk for patients with osteoporosis than for the comparison cohort (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.86; P < .05). Osteoporosis is very likely to be an independent risk factor for subsequent diagnosis of symptomatic nephrolithiasis.

  14. Non-parametric estimation of the post-lead-time survival distribution of screen-detected cancer cases.

    PubMed

    Xu, J L; Prorok, P C

    1995-12-30

    The goal of screening programmes for cancer is early detection and treatment with a consequent reduction in mortality from the disease. Screening programmes need to assess the true benefit of screening, that is, the length of time of extension of survival beyond the time of advancement of diagnosis (lead-time). This paper presents a non-parametric method to estimate the survival function of the post-lead-time survival (or extra survival time) of screen-detected cancer cases based on the observed total life time, namely, the sum of the lead-time and the extra survival time. We apply the method to the well-known data set of the HIP (Health Insurance Plan of Greater New York) breast cancer screening study. We make comparisons with the survival of other groups of cancer cases not detected by screening such as interval cases, cases among individuals who refused screening, and randomized control cases. As compared with Walter and Stitt's model, in which they made parametric assumptions for the extra survival time, our non-parametric method provides a better fit to HIP data in the sense that our estimator for the total survival time has a smaller sum of squares of residuals.

  15. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2008.

    SciTech Connect

    Faulkner, James R.; Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.

    2009-06-23

    In 2008, the National Marine Fisheries Service completed the sixteenth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. We PIT tagged and released a total of 18,565 hatchery steelhead O. mykiss, 15,991 wild steelhead, and 9,714 wild yearling Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha at Lower Granite Dam in the Snake River. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from the hydropower system and at sites within the hydropower system in both the Snake and Columbia Rivers. These included 122,061 yearling Chinook salmon tagged at Lower Granite Dam for evaluation of latent mortality related to passage through Snake River dams. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, Ice Harbor, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the single-release model). Primary research objectives in 2008 were to: (1) estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead, (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions, and (3) evaluate the survival estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2008 for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Additional details on the methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here. Survival

  16. Expanded Fermi Solution for Estimating the Survival of Ingested Pathogenic and Probiotic Microbial Cells and Spores ▿ †

    PubMed Central

    Peleg, Micha; Normand, Mark D.; Horowitz, Joseph; Corradini, Maria G.

    2011-01-01

    The expanded Fermi solution was originally developed for estimating the number of food-poisoning victims when information concerning the circumstances of exposure is scarce. The method has been modified for estimating the initial number of pathogenic or probiotic cells or spores so that enough of them will survive the food preparation and digestive tract's obstacles to reach or colonize the gut in sufficient numbers to have an effect. The method is based on identifying the relevant obstacles and assigning each a survival probability range. The assumed number of needed survivors is also specified as a range. The initial number is then estimated to be the ratio of the number of survivors to the product of the survival probabilities. Assuming that the values of the number of survivors and the survival probabilities are uniformly distributed over their respective ranges, the sought initial number is construed as a random variable with a probability distribution whose parameters are explicitly determined by the individual factors' ranges. The distribution of the initial number is often approximately lognormal, and its mode is taken to be the best estimate of the initial number. The distribution also provides a credible interval for this estimated initial number. The best estimate and credible interval are shown to be robust against small perturbations of the ranges and therefore can help assessors achieve consensus where hard knowledge is scant. The calculation procedure has been automated and made freely downloadable as a Wolfram Demonstration. PMID:21057020

  17. Linear-In-The-Parameters Oblique Least Squares (LOLS) Provides More Accurate Estimates of Density-Dependent Survival

    PubMed Central

    Vieira, Vasco M. N. C. S.; Engelen, Aschwin H.; Huanel, Oscar R.; Guillemin, Marie-Laure

    2016-01-01

    Survival is a fundamental demographic component and the importance of its accurate estimation goes beyond the traditional estimation of life expectancy. The evolutionary stability of isomorphic biphasic life-cycles and the occurrence of its different ploidy phases at uneven abundances are hypothesized to be driven by differences in survival rates between haploids and diploids. We monitored Gracilaria chilensis, a commercially exploited red alga with an isomorphic biphasic life-cycle, having found density-dependent survival with competition and Allee effects. While estimating the linear-in-the-parameters survival function, all model I regression methods (i.e, vertical least squares) provided biased line-fits rendering them inappropriate for studies about ecology, evolution or population management. Hence, we developed an iterative two-step non-linear model II regression (i.e, oblique least squares), which provided improved line-fits and estimates of survival function parameters, while robust to the data aspects that usually turn the regression methods numerically unstable. PMID:27936048

  18. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1996 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.

    1998-02-01

    In 1996, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the fourth year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected near the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and at Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Individual smolts were subsequently detected at PIT-tag detection facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release (SR) and Paired-Release (PR) Models. Timing of releases of tagged hatchery steelhead (O. mykiss) from the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and yearling chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) from Lower Granite Dam in 1996 spanned the major portion of their juvenile migrations. Specific research objectives in 1996 were to (1) estimate reach and project survival in the Snake River using the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations, (2) evaluate the performance of the survival-estimation models under prevailing operational and environmental conditions in the Snake River, and (3) synthesize results from the 4 years of the study to investigate relationships between survival probabilities, travel times, and environmental factors such as flow levels and water temperature.

  19. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1994 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Muir, William D.

    1995-02-01

    In 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the second year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through the dams and reservoirs of the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected at selected locations above, at, and below Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release, Modified Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models.

  20. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 1998 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.

    2000-03-01

    This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for PIT-tagged hatchery and wild juvenile steelhead and yearling chinook salmon in the Snake and Columbia Rivers during 1998. Estimates of post-detection bypass survival for yearling chinook salmon at McNary Dam are also reported. Results are reported primarily in the form of data tables and figures with minimal description of methods and analysis. Detailed information on the methodology and statistical models used for this report is provided in five previous annual reports on this study, which are cited here.

  1. Olfactory Dysfunction Predicts 5-Year Mortality in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Pinto, Jayant M.; Wroblewski, Kristen E.; Kern, David W.; Schumm, L. Philip; McClintock, Martha K.

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of mortality has focused on disease and frailty, although antecedent biomarkers may herald broad physiological decline. Olfaction, an ancestral chemical system, is a strong candidate biomarker because it is linked to diverse physiological processes. We sought to determine if olfactory dysfunction is a harbinger of 5-year mortality in the National Social Life, Health and Aging Project [NSHAP], a nationally representative sample of older U.S. adults. 3,005 community-dwelling adults aged 57–85 were studied in 2005–6 (Wave 1) and their mortality determined in 2010–11 (Wave 2). Olfactory dysfunction, determined objectively at Wave 1, was used to estimate the odds of 5-year, all cause mortality via logistic regression, controlling for demographics and health factors. Mortality for anosmic older adults was four times that of normosmic individuals while hyposmic individuals had intermediate mortality (p<0.001), a “dose-dependent” effect present across the age range. In a comprehensive model that included potential confounding factors, anosmic older adults had over three times the odds of death compared to normosmic individuals (OR, 3.37 [95%CI 2.04, 5.57]), higher than and independent of known leading causes of death, and did not result from the following mechanisms: nutrition, cognitive function, mental health, smoking and alcohol abuse or frailty. Olfactory function is thus one of the strongest predictors of 5-year mortality and may serve as a bellwether for slowed cellular regeneration or as a marker of cumulative toxic environmental exposures. This finding provides clues for pinpointing an underlying mechanism related to a fundamental component of the aging process. PMID:25271633

  2. Olfactory dysfunction predicts 5-year mortality in older adults.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Jayant M; Wroblewski, Kristen E; Kern, David W; Schumm, L Philip; McClintock, Martha K

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of mortality has focused on disease and frailty, although antecedent biomarkers may herald broad physiological decline. Olfaction, an ancestral chemical system, is a strong candidate biomarker because it is linked to diverse physiological processes. We sought to determine if olfactory dysfunction is a harbinger of 5-year mortality in the National Social Life, Health and Aging Project [NSHAP], a nationally representative sample of older U.S. adults. 3,005 community-dwelling adults aged 57-85 were studied in 2005-6 (Wave 1) and their mortality determined in 2010-11 (Wave 2). Olfactory dysfunction, determined objectively at Wave 1, was used to estimate the odds of 5-year, all cause mortality via logistic regression, controlling for demographics and health factors. Mortality for anosmic older adults was four times that of normosmic individuals while hyposmic individuals had intermediate mortality (p<0.001), a "dose-dependent" effect present across the age range. In a comprehensive model that included potential confounding factors, anosmic older adults had over three times the odds of death compared to normosmic individuals (OR, 3.37 [95%CI 2.04, 5.57]), higher than and independent of known leading causes of death, and did not result from the following mechanisms: nutrition, cognitive function, mental health, smoking and alcohol abuse or frailty. Olfactory function is thus one of the strongest predictors of 5-year mortality and may serve as a bellwether for slowed cellular regeneration or as a marker of cumulative toxic environmental exposures. This finding provides clues for pinpointing an underlying mechanism related to a fundamental component of the aging process.

  3. The Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool (ADEPT): A Risk Score to Estimate Survival in Nursing Home Residents with Advanced Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Susan L.; Miller, Susan C.; Teno, Joan M.; Davis, Roger B.; Shaffer, Michele L.

    2010-01-01

    Context Estimating life expectancy is challenging in advanced dementia. Objectives To create a risk score to estimate survival in nursing home (NH) residents with advanced dementia. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study performed in the setting of all licensed US NHs. Residents with advanced dementia living in US NHs in 2002 were identified using Minimum Data Set (MDS) assessments. Mortality data from Medicare files were used to determine 12-month survival. Independent variables were selected from the MDS. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model survival. The accuracy of the final model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). To develop a risk score, points were assigned to variables in the final model based on parameter estimates. Residents meeting hospice eligibility guidelines for dementia, based on MDS data, were identified. The AUROC assessed the accuracy of hospice guidelines to predict six-month survival. Results Over 12 months, 40.6% of residents with advanced dementia (n=22,405) died. Twelve variables best predicted survival: length of stay, age, male, dyspnea, pressure ulcers, total functional dependence, bedfast, insufficient intake, bowel incontinence, body mass index, weight loss, and congestive heart failure. The AUROC for the final model was 0.68. The risk score ranged from 0–32 points (higher scores indicate worse survival). Only 15.9% of residents met hospice eligibility guidelines for which the AUROC predicting six-month survival was 0.53. Conclusion A mortality risk score derived from MDS data predicted six-month survival in advanced dementia with moderate accuracy. The predictive ability of hospice guidelines, simulated with MDS data, was poor. PMID:20621437

  4. Estimating the effect of hunting on annual survival rates of adult mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.; Anderson, David R.

    1984-01-01

    Management programs for waterfowl populations include rationale for, and establishment of, hunting regulations. These programs rest partially on the results of scientific studies on the effect of harvest rates on annual survival rates. The evidence of this relationship has changed markedly since the mid-1970's, and it is not widely believed that a largely compensatory relationship exists between hunting mortality and other forms of mortality for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). This paper employs a general probabilistic model formulated to include a parameter (b) representing a continuum between complete compensation (b=0) and total additivity (b=1). Maximum likelihood estimates of this parameter were computer for 47 data sets of adult mallards banded throughout North American before hunting commenced. We found additional evidence of a highly compensatory mortality process for adult male mallards, while the evidence for adults female mallards remains inconclusive. Effective harvest, land acquisition, and land management programs depend upon additional information on the chronology and mechanisms underlying a compensatory mortality process.

  5. Estimation of the age at onset in spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 Cuban patients by survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Almaguer-Mederos, L E; Falcón, N S; Almira, Y R; Zaldivar, Y G; Almarales, D C; Góngora, E M; Herrera, M P; Batallán, K E; Armiñán, R R; Manresa, M V; Cruz, G S; Laffita-Mesa, J; Cyuz, T M; Chang, V; Auburger, G; Gispert, S; Pérez, L V

    2010-08-01

    Previous studies have investigated the close association that exists between CAG repeat number and the age at onset in SCA2 = spinocerebellar ataxia type 2. These studies have focused on affected individuals. To further characterize this association and estimate the risk of a carrier developing SCA2 at a particular age as a function of a specific CAG repeat size, we have analyzed a large group of 924 individuals, including 394 presymptomatic and 530 affected individuals with a CAG repeat length of 32-79 units. Using a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we obtained cumulative probability curves for disease manifestation at a particular age for each CAG repeat length in the 34-45 range. These curves were significantly different (p < 0.001) and showed small overlap. All these information may be very valuable in predictive-testing programs, in the planning of studies for the identification of other genetic and environmental factors as modifiers of age at onset, and in the design of clinical trials for people at enlarged risk for SCA2.

  6. Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

  7. Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

    PubMed Central

    Dal Maso, L.; Guzzinati, S.; Buzzoni, C.; Capocaccia, R.; Serraino, D.; Caldarella, A.; Dei Tos, A. P.; Falcini, F.; Autelitano, M.; Masanotti, G.; Ferretti, S.; Tisano, F.; Tirelli, U.; Crocetti, E.; De Angelis, R.; Virdone, S.; Zucchetto, A.; Gigli, A.; Francisci, S.; Baili, P.; Gatta, G.; Castaing, M.; Zanetti, R.; Contiero, P.; Bidoli, E.; Vercelli, M.; Michiara, M.; Federico, M.; Senatore, G.; Pannozzo, F.; Vicentini, M.; Bulatko, A.; Pirino, D. R.; Gentilini, M.; Fusco, M.; Giacomin, A.; Fanetti, A. C.; Cusimano, R.

    2014-01-01

    Background Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. Patients and methods Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. Results The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. Conclusions A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. PMID:25149707

  8. A fully nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function based on case-control clustered age-at-onset data.

    PubMed

    Gorfine, Malka; Bordo, Nadia; Hsu, Li

    2017-01-01

    SummaryConsider a popular case-control family study where individuals with a disease under study (case probands) and individuals who do not have the disease (control probands) are randomly sampled from a well-defined population. Possibly right-censored age at onset and disease status are observed for both probands and their relatives. For example, case probands are men diagnosed with prostate cancer, control probands are men free of prostate cancer, and the prostate cancer history of the fathers of the probands is also collected. Inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior lead to correlation among the outcomes within a family. In this article, a novel nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function is provided. The estimator is defined in the presence of intra-cluster dependence, and is based on consistent smoothed kernel estimators of conditional survival functions. By simulation, it is shown that the proposed estimator performs very well in terms of bias. The utility of the estimator is illustrated by the analysis of case-control family data of early onset prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first article that provides a fully nonparametric marginal survival estimator based on case-control clustered age-at-onset data.

  9. Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Objective To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. Design A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and north America on 20 379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. Methods Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. Results During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/μl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8–65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1–99% for AIDS or death and 1.3–96% for death alone. Conclusion On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org. PMID:17502729

  10. Your Child's Development: 2.5 Years (30 Months)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Old Your Child’s Development: 2.5 Years (30 Months) KidsHealth > For Parents > Your Child’s Development: 2.5 Years (30 Months) A A A Are you amazed by the ... TOPIC Your Child's Checkup: 2.5 Years (30 Months) Home and Away: How to Keep Toddlers Active ...

  11. The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor

    2016-10-01

    Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods.

  12. Mutations, Clinical Findings and Survival Estimates in South American Patients with X-Linked Adrenoleukodystrophy

    PubMed Central

    Pereira, Fernanda dos Santos; Matte, Ursula; Habekost, Clarissa Troller; de Castilhos, Raphael Machado; El Husny, Antonette Souto; Lourenço, Charles Marques; Vianna-Morgante, Angela M.; Giuliani, Liane; Galera, Marcial Francis; Honjo, Rachel; Kim, Chong Ae; Politei, Juan; Vargas, Carmen Regla; Jardim, Laura Bannach

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we analyzed the ABCD1 gene in X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD) patients and relatives from 38 unrelated families from South America, as well as phenotypic proportions, survival estimates, and the potential effect of geographical origin in clinical characteristics. Methods X- ALD patients from Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay were invited to participate in molecular studies to determine their genetic status, characterize the mutations and improve the genetic counseling of their families. All samples were screened by SSCP analysis of PCR fragments, followed by automated DNA sequencing to establish the specific mutation in each family. Age at onset and at death, male phenotypes, genetic status of women, and the effect of family and of latitude of origin were also studied. Results We identified thirty-six different mutations (twelve novel). This population had an important allelic heterogeneity, as only p.Arg518Gln was repeatedly found (three families). Four cases carried de novo mutations. Intra-familiar phenotype variability was observed in all families. Out of 87 affected males identified, 65% had the cerebral phenotype (CALD). The mean (95% CI) ages at onset and at death of the CALD were 10.9 (9.1–12.7) and 24.7 (19.8–29.6) years. No association was found between phenotypic manifestations and latitude of origin. One index-case was a girl with CALD who carried an ABCD1 mutation, and had completely skewed X inactivation. Conclusions This study extends the spectrum of mutations in X-ALD, confirms the high rates of de novo mutations and the absence of common mutations, and suggests a possible high frequency of cerebral forms in our population. PMID:22479560

  13. Estimation of survival rates from band recoveries of mule deer in Colorado

    SciTech Connect

    White, G.C.; Bartmann, R.M.

    1983-01-01

    An attempt has been made to determine the survival rate of mule deer in the White River drainage basin in northwestern Colorado. During five winters, 1972-76, 1923 mule deer were trapped and marked. Survival rates were determined at yearly intervals. A FORTRAN program was used to perform the analysis.

  14. Henslow's sparrow winter-survival estimates and response to prescribed burning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thatcher, B.S.; Krementz, D.G.; Woodrey, M.S.

    2006-01-01

    Wintering Henslow's sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii) populations rely on lands managed with prescribed burning, but the effects of various burn regimes on their overwinter survival are unknown. We studied wintering Henslow's sparrows in coastal pine savannas at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Jackson County, Mississippi, USA, during January and February 2001 and 2002. We used the known-fate modeling procedure in program MARK to evaluate the effects of burn age (1 or 2 growing seasons elapsed), burn season (growing, dormant), and calendar year on the survival rates of 83 radiomarked Henslow's sparrows. We found strong evidence that Henslow's sparrow survival rates differed by burn age (with higher survival in recently burned sites) and by year (with lower survival rates in 2001 likely because of drought conditions). We found some evidence that survival rates also differed by bum season (with higher survival in growing-season sites), although the effects of burn season were only apparent in recently burned sites. Avian predation was the suspected major cause of mortality (causing 6 of 14 deaths) with 1 confirmed loggerhead shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) depredation. Our results indicated that recently burned savannas provide high-quality wintering habitats and suggested that managers can improve conditions for wintering Henslow's sparrows by burning a large percentage of savannas each year.

  15. Evaluation of ultrastructure and random effects band recovery models for estimating relationships between survival and harvest rates in exploited populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Otis, D.L.; White, Gary C.

    2004-01-01

    Increased population survival rate after an episode of seasonal exploitation is considered a type of compensatory population response. Lack of an increase is interpreted as evidence that exploitation results in added annual mortality in the population. Despite its importance to management of exploited species, there are limited statistical techniques for comparing relative support for these two alternative models. For exploited bird species, the most common technique is to use a fixed effect, deterministic ultrastructure model incorporated into band recovery models to estimate the relationship between harvest and survival rate. We present a new likelihood-based technique within a framework that assumes that survival and harvest are random effects that covary through time. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study under this framework to evaluate the performance of these two techniques. The ultrastructure models performed poorly in all simulated scenarios, due mainly to pathological distributional properties. The random effects estimators and their associated estimators of precision had relatively small negative bias under most scenarios, and profile likelihood intervals achieved nominal coverage. We suggest that the random effects estimation method approach has many advantages compared to the ultrastructure models, and that evaluation of robustness and generalization to more complex population structures are topics for additional research. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

  16. Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates.

    PubMed

    Dudgeon, Christine L; Pollock, Kenneth H; Braccini, J Matias; Semmens, Jayson M; Barnett, Adam

    2015-07-01

    Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

  17. Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( λ ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

  18. Effects of Photo and Genotype-Based Misidentification Error on Estimates of Survival, Detection and State Transition using Multistate Survival Models

    PubMed Central

    Winiarski, Kristopher J.; McGarigal, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    We simulated multistate capture histories (CHs) by varying state survival (ϕ), detection (p) and transition (ψ), number of total capture occasions and releases per capture occasion and then modified these scenarios to mimic false rejection error (FRE), a common misidentification error, resulting from the failure to match samples of the same individual. We then fit a multistate model and estimated accuracy, bias and precision of state-specific ϕ, p and ψ to better understand the effects of FRE on different simulation scenarios. As expected, ϕ, and p, decreased in accuracy with FRE, with lower accuracy when CHs were simulated under a shorter-term study and a lower number of releases per capture occasion (lower sample size). Accuracy of ψ estimates were robust to FRE except in those CH scenarios simulated using low sample size. The effect of FRE on bias was not consistent among parameters and differed by CH scenario. As expected, ϕ was negatively biased with increased FRE (except for the low ϕ low p CH scenario simulated with a low sample size), but we found that the magnitude of bias differed by scenario (high p CH scenarios were more negatively biased). State transition was relatively unbiased, except for the low p CH scenarios simulated with a low sample size, which were positively biased with FRE, and high p CH scenarios simulated with a low sample size. The effect of FRE on precision was not consistent among parameters and differed by scenario and sample size. Precision of ϕ decreased with FRE and was lowest with the low ϕ low p CH scenarios. Precision of p estimates also decreased with FRE under all scenarios, except the low ϕ high p CH scenarios. However, precision of ψ increased with FRE, except for those CH scenarios simulated with a low sample size. Our results demonstrate how FRE leads to loss of accuracy in parameter estimates in a multistate model with the exception of ψ when estimated using an adequate sample size. PMID:26751208

  19. Estimating movement and survival rates of a small saltwater fish using autonomous antenna receiver arrays and passive integrated transponder tags

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rudershausen, Paul J.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Dubreuil, Todd; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Poland, Steven J.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of small (12.5 mm long) passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and custom detection antennas for obtaining fine-scale movement and demographic data of mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus in a salt marsh creek. Apparent survival and detection probability were estimated using a Cormack Jolly Seber (CJS) model fitted to detection data collected by an array of 3 vertical antennas from November 2010 to March 2011 and by a single horizontal antenna from April to August 2011. Movement of mummichogs was monitored during the period when the array of vertical antennas was used. Antenna performance was examined in situ using tags placed in wooden dowels (drones) and in live mummichogs. Of the 44 tagged fish, 42 were resighted over the 9 mo monitoring period. The in situ detection probabilities of the drone and live mummichogs were high (~80-100%) when the ambient water depth was less than ~0.8 m. Upstream and downstream movement of mummichogs was related to hourly water depth and direction of tidal current in a way that maximized time periods over which mummichogs utilized the intertidal vegetated marsh. Apparent survival was lower during periods of colder water temperatures in December 2010 and early January 2011 (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.979) than during other periods of the study (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.992). During late fall and winter, temperature had a positive effect on the CJS detection probability of a tagged mummichog, likely due to greater fish activity over warmer periods. During the spring and summer, this pattern reversed possibly due to mummichogs having reduced activity during the hottest periods. This study demonstrates the utility of PIT tags and continuously operating autonomous detection systems for tracking fish at fine temporal scales, and improving estimates of demographic parameters in salt marsh creeks that are difficult or impractical to sample with active fishing gear.

  20. Survival estimates of migrant juvenile salmonids through Bonneville Dam using radio telemetry, 2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Counihan, Timothy D.; Hardiman, Jill M.; Walker, Chris; Puls, Amy; Holmberg , Glen

    2006-01-01

    During 2005, we evaluated the survival of radio-tagged yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and steelhead trout through the Bonneville Dam spillway, powerhouses 1 and 2, the corner collector and juvenile bypass system (JBS) at powerhouse 2, and through all routes collectively using the route-specific survival model. Radio-tagged fish were released at The Dalles Dam and in the tailrace of Bonneville Dam and were interrogated at Bonneville Dam and three radio-telemetry arrays below Bonneville Dam. We also evaluated the survival of radio-tagged yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and steelhead trout using paired releases through the ice and trash sluiceway at Bonneville Dam’s powerhouse 1. Site-specific releases were made directly into the ice and trash sluiceway and in the tailrace of Bonneville Dam below the outfall of powerhouse 2 juvenile bypass system.

  1. Estimation of total genetic effects for survival time in crossbred laying hens showing cannibalism, using pedigree or genomic information.

    PubMed

    Brinker, T; Raymond, B; Bijma, P; Vereijken, A; Ellen, E D

    2017-02-01

    Mortality of laying hens due to cannibalism is a major problem in the egg-laying industry. Survival depends on two genetic effects: the direct genetic effect of the individual itself (DGE) and the indirect genetic effects of its group mates (IGE). For hens housed in sire-family groups, DGE and IGE cannot be estimated using pedigree information, but the combined effect of DGE and IGE is estimated in the total breeding value (TBV). Genomic information provides information on actual genetic relationships between individuals and might be a tool to improve TBV accuracy. We investigated whether genomic information of the sire increased TBV accuracy compared with pedigree information, and we estimated genetic parameters for survival time. A sire model with pedigree information (BLUP) and a sire model with genomic information (ssGBLUP) were used. We used survival time records of 7290 crossbred offspring with intact beaks from four crosses. Cross-validation was used to compare the models. Using ssGBLUP did not improve TBV accuracy compared with BLUP which is probably due to the limited number of sires available per cross (~50). Genetic parameter estimates were similar for BLUP and ssGBLUP. For both BLUP and ssGBLUP, total heritable variance (T(2) ), expressed as a proportion of phenotypic variance, ranged from 0.03 ± 0.04 to 0.25 ± 0.09. Further research is needed on breeding value estimation for socially affected traits measured on individuals kept in single-family groups.

  2. Estimating true instead of apparent survival using spatial Cormack-Jolly-Seber models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schaub, Michael; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Spatial CJS models enable study of dispersal and survival independent of study design constraints such as imperfect detection and size of the study area provided that some of the dispersing individuals remain in the study area. We discuss possible extensions of our model: alternative dispersal models and the inclusion of covariates and of a habitat suitability map.

  3. Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

    2015-01-01

    Implications: We present the first inter-seasonal analysis of survival probability of the Pacific coast race of band-tailed pigeons and illustrate important temporal patterns that may influence future species management including harvest strategies and disease monitoring.

  4. Longevity records and survival estimate of birds in a Guatemala rain forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Dowell, B.; Hines, J.

    2002-01-01

    Birds were mist-netted for ten consecutive 'winter' seasons at two sites on Cerro San Gil and for three to nine seasons at eight other sites on the mountain. Sixteen nets were used at each site for three days; net locations were the same each year. From 1,255 subsequent-year recaptures we computed annual survival using the program MARK. A low annual survival of 0.26+0.03 for Long-tailed Hermit probably reflects extensive wandering in search of food. The only other residents with low survival rates were Ochre-bellied Flycatcher (0.32) and Olive-backed Euphonia (0.38). Other residents tested ranged from 0.49 for Red-capped Manakin to 0.67 for Stub-tailed Spadebill and are within ranges reported from other tropical sites. Rates for migrants were lower, ranging from 0.33 (Worm-eating Warbler) to 0.45 (Kentucky Warbler). Limiting the analysis to known territorial adults (birds that had already returned from a previous year), raised survival rates for residents an average of 0.05, whereas rates for wintering migratory species remained unchanged. The oldest birds recaptured were all residents: Scalythroated Leaftosser (9 years 9 months), Tawny-winged and Wedge-billed Woodcreepers, Northern Bentbill, Tawny-crowned Greenlet, and White-breasted Woodwren (8 years 9 months each). Ages over three years nine months were recorded for 46 species; for the majority of these, new maximum age records were established. A positive relationship was found between survival rate and maximum age and between sample size and maximum age

  5. Salvage HDR Brachytherapy for Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Previous Definitive Radiation Therapy: 5-Year Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Chien Peter; Weinberg, Vivian; Shinohara, Katsuto; Roach, Mack; Nash, Marc; Gottschalk, Alexander; Chang, Albert J.; Hsu, I-Chow

    2013-06-01

    Purpose: Evaluate efficacy and toxicity of salvage high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDRB) for locally recurrent prostate cancer after definitive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 52 consecutively accrued patients undergoing salvage HDRB between 1998 and 2009 for locally recurrent prostate cancer after previous definitive RT. After pathologic confirmation of locally recurrent disease, patients received 36 Gy in 6 fractions. Twenty-four patients received neoadjuvant hormonal therapy before salvage, and no patients received adjuvant hormonal therapy. Determination of biochemical failure after salvage HDRB was based on the Phoenix definition. Overall survival (OS) and bF distributions were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of biochemical control. Acute and late genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) toxicities, based on Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 4), were documented. Results: Median follow-up after salvage HDRB was 59.6 months. The 5-year OS estimate was 92% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 80%-97%) with median survival not yet reached. Five-year biochemical control after salvage was 51% (95% CI: 34%-66%). Median PSA nadir postsalvage was 0.1 (range: 0-7.2) reached at a median of 10.2 months after completing HDRB. As for complications, acute and late grade 3 GU toxicities were observed in only 2% and 2%, respectively. No grade 2 or higher acute GI events and 4% grade 2 GI late events were observed. On univariate analysis, disease-free interval after initial definitive RT (P=.07), percent of positive cores at the time of diagnosis (P=.08), interval from first recurrence to salvage HDRB (P=.09), and pre-HDRB prostate-specific antigen (P=.07) were each of borderline significance in predicting biochemical control after salvage HDRB. Conclusions: Prostate HDRB is an effective salvage modality with relatively few long-term toxicities. We

  6. Survival analysis: A consumer-friendly method to estimate the optimum sucrose level in probiotic petit suisse.

    PubMed

    Esmerino, E A; Paixão, J A; Cruz, A G; Garitta, L; Hough, G; Bolini, H M A

    2015-11-01

    For years, just-about-right (JAR) scales have been among the most used techniques to obtain sensory information about consumer perception, but recently, some researchers have harshly criticized the technique. The present study aimed to apply survival analysis to estimate the optimum sucrose concentration in probiotic petit suisse cheese and compare the survival analysis to JAR scales to verify which technique more accurately predicted the optimum sucrose concentration according to consumer acceptability. Two panels of consumers (total=170) performed affective tests to determine the optimal concentration of sucrose in probiotic petit suisse using 2 different methods of analysis: JAR scales (n=85) and survival analysis (n=85). Then an acceptance test was conducted using naïve consumers (n=100) between 18 and 60 yr old, with 2 samples of petit suisse, one with the ideal sucrose determined by JAR scales and the other with the ideal sucrose content determined by survival analysis, to determine which formulation was in accordance with consumer acceptability. The results indicate that the 2 sensory methods were equally effective in predicting the optimum sucrose level in probiotic petit suisse cheese, and no significant differences were detected in any of the characteristics related to liking evaluated. However, survival analysis has important advantages over the JAR scales. Survival analysis has shown the potential to be an advantageous tool for dairy companies because it was able to accurately predict the optimum sucrose content in a consumer-friendly way and was also practical for researchers because experimental sensory work is simpler and has been shown to be more cost effective than JAR scales without losses of consumer acceptability.

  7. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2000 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Zabel, Richard; Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.

    2001-02-01

    In 2000, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the eight year of a study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A total of 20,313 hatchery steelhead were tagged with passive integrated transpoder (PIT) tags and released at Lower Granite Dam for reach survival estimation. They did not PIT tag any yearlying chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) for reach survival estimates in 2000 because sufficient numbers for these estimates were available from other studies. Primary research objectives in 2000 were (1) to estimate reach and project survival in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations, and (2) to evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. In addition, they estimated survival from point of release to Lower Granite Dam and below for chinook salmon, steelhead, and sockeye salmon (O.nerka) PIT tagged and released at Snake River basin hatcheries and chinook salmon and steelhead PIT tagged and released at Snake River basin hatcheries and chinook salmon and steelhead PIT tagged and released at Snake River basin smolt traps. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2000 for PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures. Further details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited in the text.

  8. Choosing profile double-sampling designs for survival estimation with application to President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief evaluation.

    PubMed

    An, Ming-Wen; Frangakis, Constantine E; Yiannoutsos, Constantin T

    2014-05-30

    Most studies that follow subjects over time are challenged by having some subjects who dropout. Double sampling is a design that selects and devotes resources to intensively pursue and find a subset of these dropouts, then uses data obtained from these to adjust naïve estimates, which are potentially biased by the dropout. Existing methods to estimate survival from double sampling assume a random sample. In limited-resource settings, however, generating accurate estimates using a minimum of resources is important. We propose using double-sampling designs that oversample certain profiles of dropouts as more efficient alternatives to random designs. First, we develop a framework to estimate the survival function under these profile double-sampling designs. We then derive the precision of these designs as a function of the rule for selecting different profiles, in order to identify more efficient designs. We illustrate using data from the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief-funded HIV care and treatment program in western Kenya. Our results show why and how more efficient designs should oversample patients with shorter dropout times. Further, our work suggests generalizable practice for more efficient double-sampling designs, which can help maximize efficiency in resource-limited settings.

  9. Juvenile Passage Program : A Plan for Estimating Smolt Travel Time and Survival in the Snake and Columbia Rivers

    SciTech Connect

    Skalski, J. R.; Giorgi, Albert E.

    1993-10-01

    A plan for developing a program to evaluate juvenile salmon passage is presented that encompasses the Snake (Lower Granite to McNary Dams), Mid-Columbia (Wells to McNary Dams), and Lower Columbia (McNary to Bonneville Dams) segments of the Snake/Columbia River system. This plan focuses on the use of PIT-tag technology to routinely estimate travel times and reach survival of outmigrating yearling and subyearling Chinook, sockeye, and steelhead during spring and summer months. The proposed program outlines tagging studies that could be implemented in (a) 1992, (b) near term (1993--94), and (c) long term (1995 to the next decade). The evolution of this program over time parallels plans to establish additional PIT-tag detector and slide-gate systems at Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams. The eventual ability to concurrently estimate travel time and survival of release groups will permit evaluation of travel time-survival-flow relationships and identify possible mortality {open_quotes}hot spots{close_quotes} for remediation.

  10. An estimator of the survival function based on the semi-Markov model under dependent censorship.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seung-Yeoun; Tsai, Wei-Yann

    2005-06-01

    Lee and Wolfe (Biometrics vol. 54 pp. 1176-1178, 1998) proposed the two-stage sampling design for testing the assumption of independent censoring, which involves further follow-up of a subset of lost-to-follow-up censored subjects. They also proposed an adjusted estimator for the survivor function for a proportional hazards model under the dependent censoring model. In this paper, a new estimator for the survivor function is proposed for the semi-Markov model under the dependent censorship on the basis of the two-stage sampling data. The consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are derived. The estimation procedure is illustrated with an example of lung cancer clinical trial and simulation results are reported of the mean squared errors of estimators under a proportional hazards and two different nonproportional hazards models.

  11. Predictors of indoor absolute humidity and estimated effects on influenza virus survival in grade schools

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Low absolute humidity (AH) has been associated with increased influenza virus survival and transmissibility and the onset of seasonal influenza outbreaks. Humidification of indoor environments may mitigate viral transmission and may be an important control strategy, particularly in schools where viral transmission is common and contributes to the spread of influenza in communities. However, the variability and predictors of AH in the indoor school environment and the feasibility of classroom humidification to levels that could decrease viral survival have not been studied. Methods Automated sensors were used to measure temperature, humidity and CO2 levels in two Minnesota grade schools without central humidification during two successive winters. Outdoor AH measurements were derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. Variability in indoor AH within classrooms, between classrooms in the same school, and between schools was assessed using concordance correlation coefficients (CCC). Predictors of indoor AH were examined using time-series Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models. Classroom humidifiers were used when school was not in session to assess the feasibility of increasing indoor AH to levels associated with decreased influenza virus survival, as projected from previously published animal experiments. Results AH varied little within classrooms (CCC >0.90) but was more variable between classrooms in the same school (CCC 0.81 for School 1, 0.88 for School 2) and between schools (CCC 0.81). Indoor AH varied widely during the winter (range 2.60 to 10.34 millibars [mb]) and was strongly associated with changes in outdoor AH (p < 0.001). Changes in indoor AH on school weekdays were strongly associated with CO2 levels (p < 0.001). Over 4 hours, classroom humidifiers increased indoor AH by 4 mb, an increase sufficient to decrease projected 1-hour virus survival by an absolute value of 30% during winter months

  12. Estimation of Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus) survival, recapture, and recovery rate during and after a disease outbreak

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fonnesbeck, C.J.; Dodd, C.K.

    2003-01-01

    We estimated survivorship, recapture probabilities and recovery rates in a threatened population of Flattened Musk Turtles (Sternotherus depressus) through a disease outbreak in Alabama in 1985. We evaluated a set of models for the demographic effects of disease by analyzing recaptures and recoveries simultaneously. Multiple-model inference suggested survival was temporally dynamic, whereas recapture probability was sex- and age-specifc. Biweekly survivorship declined from 98-99% before to 82-88% during the outbreak. Live recapture was twice as likely for male turtles relative to juveniles or females, whereas dead recoveries varied only slightly by sex and age. Our results suggest modest reduction in survival over a relatively short time period may severely affect population status.

  13. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1997 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Hockersmith, Eric E.

    1999-03-01

    This report consists of two parts describing research activities completed during 1997 under Bonneville Power Administration Project Number 93-29. Part 1 provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 1997 for PIT-tagged hatchery steelhead and yearling chinook salmon in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. The results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More detailed information on methodology and the statistical models used in the analysis are provided in previous annual reports cited in the text. Analysis of the relationships among travel time, survival, and environmental factors for 1997 and previous years of the study will be reported elsewhere. Part 2 of this report describes research to determine areas of loss and delay for juvenile hatchery salmonids above Lower Granite Reservoir.

  14. Latino Children's Body Mass Index at 2–3.5 Years Predicts Sympathetic Nervous System Activity at 5 Years

    PubMed Central

    Harley, Kim G.; Neilands, Torsten B.; Tambellini, Katelyn; Lustig, Robert H.; Boyce, W. Thomas; Eskenazi, Brenda

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background: To understand whether the relationship between young children's autonomic nervous system (ANS) responses predicted their BMI, or vice versa, the association between standardized BMI (zBMI) at 2, 3.5, and 5 years of age and ANS reactivity at 3.5–5 years of age, and whether zBMI predicts later ANS reactivity or whether early ANS reactivity predicts later zBMI, was studied. Methods: Low-income, primarily Latino children (n=112) were part of a larger cohort study of mothers recruited during early pregnancy. Study measures included maternal prenatal weight, children's health behaviors (i.e., time watching television, fast food consumption, and time playing outdoors), children's height and weight at 2, 3.5, and 5 years, and children's ANS reactivity at 3.5 and 5 years. ANS measures of sympathetic nervous system (i.e., pre-ejection period) and parasympathetic nervous system (i.e., respiratory sinus arrhythmia) activity were monitored during rest and four challenges. Reactivity was calculated as the difference between mean challenge response and rest. Structural equation models analyzed the relationship between children's zBMI at 2, 3.5, and 5 years and ANS reactivity at 3.5 and 5 years, adjusting for mother's BMI, children's behaviors, and changes in height. Results: There was no association between zBMI and ANS cross-sectionally. Children with high zBMI at 2 or 3.5 years or large zBMI increases from 2 to 3.5 years of age had decreased sympathetic activity at 5 years. Neither sympathetic nor parasympathetic reactivity at 3.5 years predicted later zBMI. Conclusions: Increased zBMI early in childhood may dampen young children's SNS responses later in life. PMID:24745554

  15. Bayesian approach to potency estimation for aquatic toxicology experiments when a toxicant affects both fecundity and survival.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jing; Bailer, A John; Oris, James T

    2012-08-01

    Chemicals in aquatic systems may impact a variety of endpoints including mortality, growth, or reproduction. Clearly, growth or reproduction will only be observed in organisms that survive. Because it is common to observe mortality in studies focusing on the reproduction of organisms, especially in higher concentration conditions, the resulting observed numbers of young become a mixture of zeroes and positive counts. Zeroes are recorded for organisms that die before having any young and living organisms with no offspring. Positive counts are recorded for living organisms with offspring. Thus, responses reflect both fecundity and mortality of the organisms used in such tests. In the present study, the authors propose the estimation of the concentration associated with a specified level of reproductive inhibition (RIp) using a Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. This approach allows any prior information and expert knowledge about the model parameters to be incorporated into the regression coefficients or RIp estimation. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the Bayesian ZIP regression model and classical methods. The Bayesian estimator outperforms the frequentist alternative by producing more precise point estimates with smaller mean square differences between RIp estimates and true values, narrower interval estimates with better coverage probabilities. The authors also applied their proposed model to a study of Ceriodaphnia dubia exposed to a test toxicant.

  16. Competing events influence estimated survival probability: when is Kaplan-Meier analysis appropriate?

    PubMed

    Biau, David Jean; Latouche, Aurélien; Porcher, Raphaël

    2007-09-01

    The Kaplan-Meier estimator is the current method for estimating the probability of an event to occur with time in orthopaedics. However, the Kaplan-Meier estimator was designed to estimate the probability of an event that eventually will occur for all patients, ie, death, and this does not hold for other outcomes. For example, not all patients will experience hip arthroplasty loosening because some may die first, and some may have their implant removed to treat infection or recurrent hip dislocation. Such events that preclude the observation of the event of interest are called competing events. We suggest the Kaplan-Meier estimator is inappropriate in the presence of competing events and show that it overestimates the probability of the event of interest to occur with time. The cumulative incidence estimator is an alternative approach to Kaplan-Meier in situations where competing risks are likely. Three common situations include revision for implant loosening in the long-term followup of arthroplasties or implant failure in the context of limb-salvage surgery or femoral neck fracture.

  17. Your Child's Development: 1.5 Years (18 Months)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Your 1- to 2-Year-Old Your Child's Development: 1.5 Years (18 Months) KidsHealth > For Parents > ... parts ("Where is your nose?") Movement and Physical Development runs walks up stairs with hand held throws ...

  18. Fitness and Your 4-to 5-Year Old

    MedlinePlus

    ... Old Feeding Your 1- to 2-Year-Old Fitness and Your 4- to 5-Year-Old KidsHealth > ... the risk of serious illnesses later in life. Fitness for Preschoolers Physical activity guidelines for preschoolers recommend ...

  19. General Principles for 5-year Regional Haze Progress Reports

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This guidance document was developed by the U.S. EPA for EPA Regional Offices and states in preparing and reviewing the 5-year progress reports for the initial regional haze state implementation plans.

  20. Medical Care and Your 4- to 5-Year-Old

    MedlinePlus

    ... compared with other kids the same age and gender. The doctor will take a medical and family ... cooperatively with other kids understand the concept of gender identify colors Developmental milestones for 5-year-olds ...

  1. Estimation of sex-specific survival from capture-recapture data when sex is not always known

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.; Spendelow, J.A.

    2004-01-01

    Many animals lack obvious sexual dimorphism, making assignment of sex difficult even for observed or captured animals. For many such species it is possible to assign sex with certainty only at some occasions; for example, when they exhibit certain types of behavior. A common approach to handling this situation in capture-recapture studies has been to group capture histories into those of animals eventually identified as male and female and those for which sex was never known. Because group membership is dependent on the number of occasions at which an animal was caught or observed (known sex animals, on average, will have been observed at more occasions than unknown-sex animals), survival estimates for known-sex animals will be positively biased, and those for unknown animals will be negatively biased. In this paper, we develop capture-recapture models that incorporate sex ratio and sex assignment parameters that permit unbiased estimation in the face of this sampling problem. We demonstrate the magnitude of bias in the traditional capture-recapture approach to this sampling problem, and we explore properties of estimators from other ad hoc approaches. The model is then applied to capture-recapture data for adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, 1993-2002. Sex ratio among adults in this population favors females, and we tested the hypothesis that this population showed sex-specific differences in adult survival. Evidence was provided for higher survival of adult females than males, as predicted. We recommend use of this modeling approach for future capture-recapture studies in which sex cannot always be assigned to captured or observed animals. We also place this problem in the more general context of uncertainty in state classification in multistate capture-recapture models.

  2. The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin; Gallant, Alisa L.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.; Battaglin, William A.; Green, David E.; Staiger, Jennifer S.; Walls, Susan C.; Gunzburger, Margaret S.; Kearney, Rick F.

    2006-01-01

    This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

  3. 5-Year Update Environmental Assessment for CV-22 Beddown

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-02-01

    Final 5-Year Update Environmental Assessment for CV-22 Beddown Hurlburt Field , Florida...SIGNIFICANT IMPACT 5-YEAR UPDATE CV-22 BEDDOWN HURLBURT FIELD , FL Agencies: The United States Air Force (USAF) and the United States Navy (Navy...the CV-22 Osprey at Hurlburt Field , Florida. The purpose of the Proposed Action is to: • Conduct IOT&E by testing the operation of the CV-22 in as

  4. Non-parametric estimation of relative risk in survival and associated tests.

    PubMed

    Wakounig, Samo; Heinze, Georg; Schemper, Michael

    2015-12-01

    We extend the Tarone and Ware scheme of weighted log-rank tests to cover the associated weighted Mantel-Haenszel estimators of relative risk. Weighting functions previously employed are critically reviewed. The notion of an average hazard ratio is defined and its connection to the effect size measure P(Y > X) is emphasized. The connection makes estimation of P(Y > X) possible also under censoring. Two members of the extended Tarone-Ware scheme accomplish the estimation of intuitively interpretable average hazard ratios, also under censoring and time-varying relative risk which is achieved by an inverse probability of censoring weighting. The empirical properties of the members of the extended Tarone-Ware scheme are demonstrated by a Monte Carlo study. The differential role of the weighting functions considered is illustrated by a comparative analysis of four real data sets.

  5. Trabecular metal tibia still stable at 5 years

    PubMed Central

    Henricson, Anders; Rösmark, Dan; Nilsson, Kjell G

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose Clinical results of total knee replacement (TKR) are inferior in younger patients, mainly due to aseptic loosening. Coating of components with trabecular metal (TM) is a new way of enhancing fixation to bone. We have previously reported stabilization of TM tibial components at 2 years. We now report the 5-year follow-up of these patients, including RSA of their TM tibial components. Patients and methods 22 patients (26 knees) received an uncemented TM cruciate-retaining tibial component and 19 patients (21 knees) a cemented NexGen Option cruciate-retaining tibial component. Follow-up with RSA, and clinical and radiographic examinations were done at 5 years. In bilaterally operated patients, the statistical analyses included only the first-operated knee. Results Both groups had most migration within the first 3 months, the TM implants to a greater extent than the cemented implants. After 3 months, both groups stabilized and remained stable up to the 5-year follow-up. Interpretation After a high initial degree of migration, the TM tibia stabilized. This stabilization lasted for at least 5 years, which suggests a good long-term performance regarding fixation. The cemented NexGen CR tibial components showed some migration in the first 3 months and then stabilized up to the 5-year follow-up. This has not been reported previously. PMID:23992142

  6. Estimating the lifetime risk of dementia in the Canadian elderly population using cross-sectional cohort survival data

    PubMed Central

    Carone, Marco; Asgharian, Masoud; Jewell, Nicholas P.

    2014-01-01

    Dementia is one of the world’s major public health challenges. The lifetime risk of dementia is the proportion of individuals who ever develop dementia during their lifetime. Despite its importance to epidemiologists and policy-makers, this measure does not seem to have been estimated in the Canadian population. Data from a birth cohort study of dementia are not available. Instead, we must rely on data from the Canadian Study of Heath and Aging, a large cross-sectional study of dementia with follow-up for survival. These data present challenges because they include substantial loss to follow-up and are not representatively drawn from the target population because of structural sampling biases. A first bias is imparted by the cross-sectional sampling scheme, while a second bias is a result of stratified sampling. Estimation of the lifetime risk and related quantities in the presence of these biases has not been previously addressed in the literature. We develop and study nonparametric estimators of the lifetime risk, the remaining lifetime risk and cumulative risk at specific ages, accounting for these complexities. In particular, we reveal the fact that estimation of the lifetime risk is invariant to stratification by current age at sampling. We present simulation results validating our methodology, and provide novel facts about the epidemiology of dementia in Canada using data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. PMID:26139951

  7. Heat loss and hypothermia in free diving: Estimation of survival time under water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilella-Arzo, Marcel; Alcaraz, Antonio; Aguilella, Vicente M.

    2003-04-01

    The heat exchange between a diver and the colder surrounding water is analyzed on the basis of the fundamental equations of thermal transport. To estimate the decrease in the diver's body temperature as a function of time, we discuss the complex interplay of several factors including the body heat production rate, the role of the diver's wet suit, and the way different heat exchange mechanisms (conduction, convection, and radiation) contribute to thermal transport. This knowledge could be useful to prevent physiological disorders that occur when the human body temperature drops below 35 °C.

  8. [Estimation of mortality from census survival rates and consequent estimates of birth and death rates: 1975-1980 in Korea case].

    PubMed

    Kwon, H Y; Kim, K S

    1982-07-01

    The rate of natural increase in population between the census in 1975 and 1980 is calculated with total population by sex. An abridged life table, based on the Coale and Demeny life table model, is used. The number of deaths from this life table is calculated by using age specific death rate. According to this number, each crude death rate for both sexes is calculated. The crude birth rate calculation is the difference between the rate of natural increase in population and the crude death rate. Each computed rate is as follows: natural increase rate: 1.98% (male), 1.83% (female), 1.91% (total); crude death rate: .547% (male), .546% (female), .547% (total); crude birth rate: 2.535% (male), 2.340% (female), 2.448% (total). In evaluating the crude death rate and crude birth rate result, the crude death rate is lower than expected. Crude death rate from the whole country fertility survey taken in 1974 is 7/1000 people. According to the whole country fertility survey data taken in 1976, the infant mortality rate in 1974 and 1975 are at 26% and 27.5% respectively, which is considered low. This low death rate in recent times is due to the decrease in the infant mortality rate and the decrease in death of the aged population. Calculated crude birth rate is 25.6/1000 persons for males, and 24/1000 for females. After the whole country fertility survey conducted in 1976, the crude birth rate is estimated at 24/1000 persons and crude birth rate in 1980 was estimated at 23.4 persons. Results are in line with the calculations of the Third Social Economic Development 5-year plan which was drafted by working staff in the population sector including the population professionals in the Bureau of Statistics of the Economic Planning Board.

  9. Survival Analysis to Estimate Association between Short-Term Mortality and Air Pollution

    PubMed Central

    Lepeule, Johanna; Rondeau, Virginie; Filleul, Laurent; Dartigues, Jean-Francois

    2006-01-01

    Background Ecologic studies are commonly used to report associations between short-term air pollution and mortality. In such studies, the unit of observation is the day rather than the individual. Moreover, individual data on the subjects are rarely available, which limits the assessment of individual risk factors. These associations can also be investigated using case–crossover studies. However, by definition, individual risk factors are not studied, and such studies analyze only dead subjects, which limits the statistical power. Objective We suggest that the survival analysis is more suitable when cohorts are examined with a time-dependent ecologic exposure. To our knowledge, to date this type of analysis has never been proposed. Design, participants, measurements In the present study we used a Cox proportional hazards model to investigate the distribution over time of the short-term effect of black smoke and sulfur dioxide in 439 nonaccidental and 158 cardiorespiratory deaths among the 1,469 subjects of the Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) cohort in Bordeaux, France. The model has a delayed entry and a polynomial distributed lag from 0 to 5 days. Results are adjusted for individual risk factors, temperature, relative humidity, weekday, season, influenza epidemics, and a time function to control temporal trends. Results We identified a positive and significant association between cardiorespiratory mortality and black smoke, with a 24% increase in deaths 3 days after a 10-μg/m3 increase in black smoke (95% confidence interval, 4–47%). Conclusions We conclude that the Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates is very suitable to investigate simultaneously the short-term effect of air pollution on health and the effect of individual risk factors on a cohort study. PMID:16451861

  10. Rhinoscleroma in a 5-year-old Portuguese Child.

    PubMed

    Simão, Inês; Gaspar, Iuri; Faustino, Rosário; Brito, Maria João Rocha

    2014-07-01

    Rhinoscleroma is a chronic granulomatous infectious disease that is rare in Western Europe. We report the case of a 5-year-old Portuguese boy diagnosed with rhinoscleroma in the context of recurrent epistaxis. He had a 6-month course of antibiotic (amoxicillin plus clavulanate) therapy with full recovery.

  11. True or False: Do 5-Year-Olds Understand Belief?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fabricius, William V.; Boyer, Ty W.; Weimer, Amy A.; Carroll, Kathleen

    2010-01-01

    In 3 studies (N = 188) we tested the hypothesis that children use a perceptual access approach to reason about mental states before they understand beliefs. The perceptual access hypothesis predicts a U-shaped developmental pattern of performance in true belief tasks, in which 3-year-olds who reason about reality should succeed, 4- to 5-year-olds…

  12. Estimation of activation energy from the survival yields: fragmentation study of leucine enkephalin and polyethers by tandem mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Kuki, Ákos; Shemirani, Ghazaleh; Nagy, Lajos; Antal, Borbála; Zsuga, Miklós; Kéki, Sándor

    2013-07-01

    A simple collision model for multiple collisions occurring in quadrupole type mass spectrometers was derived and tested with leucine enkaphalin a common mass spectrometric standard with well-characterized properties. Implementation of the collision model and Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus (RRKM) algorithm into a spreadsheet software allowed a good fitting of the calculated data to the experimental survival yield (SY) versus collision energy curve. In addition, fitting also ensured to estimate the efficiencies of the kinetic to internal energy conversion for Leucine enkephalin in quadrupole-time-of-flight and triple quadrupole instruments. It was observed that the experimental SY versus collision energy curves for the leucine enkephalin can be described by the Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel (RRK) formalism by reducing the total degrees of freedom (DOF) to about one-fifth. Furthermore, this collision model with the RRK formalism was used to estimate the critical energy (E(o)) of lithiated polyethers, including polyethylene glycol (PEG), polypropylene glycol (PPG), and polytetrahydrofurane (PTHF) with degrees of freedom similar to that of leucine enkephalin. Applying polyethers with similar DOF provided the elimination of the effect of DOF on the unimolecular reaction rate constant. The estimated value of E(o) for PEG showed a relatively good agreement with the value calculated by high-level quantum chemical calculations reported in the literature. Interestingly, it was also found that the E(o) values for the studied polyethers were similar.

  13. A spatial capture-recapture model to estimate fish survival and location from linear continuous monitoring arrays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Raabe, Joshua K.; Gardner, Beth; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2013-01-01

    We developed a spatial capture–recapture model to evaluate survival and activity centres (i.e., mean locations) of tagged individuals detected along a linear array. Our spatially explicit version of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, analyzed using a Bayesian framework, correlates movement between periods and can incorporate environmental or other covariates. We demonstrate the model using 2010 data for anadromous American shad (Alosa sapidissima) tagged with passive integrated transponders (PIT) at a weir near the mouth of a North Carolina river and passively monitored with an upstream array of PIT antennas. The river channel constrained migrations, resulting in linear, one-dimensional encounter histories that included both weir captures and antenna detections. Individual activity centres in a given time period were a function of the individual’s previous estimated location and the river conditions (i.e., gage height). Model results indicate high within-river spawning mortality (mean weekly survival = 0.80) and more extensive movements during elevated river conditions. This model is applicable for any linear array (e.g., rivers, shorelines, and corridors), opening new opportunities to study demographic parameters, movement or migration, and habitat use.

  14. Survival Estimates for Juvenile Fish Subjected to a Laboratory-Generated Shear Environment

    SciTech Connect

    Neitzel, Duane A.; Dauble, Dennis D.; Cada, G. F.; Richmond, Marshall C.; Guensch, Greg R.; Mueller, Robert P.; Abernethy, Cary S.; Amidan, Brett G.

    2004-03-01

    Juvenile rainbow trout and steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, spring and fall chinook salmon O. tshawytscha, and American shad Alosa sapidissima were exposed to shear environments in the laboratory to determine the rate of strain that would kill or injure them. Fish were exposed to a submerged jet of water with exit velocities adjustable from 0 to 21.3 m/sec. The exposure strain rates for our tests ranged from 0 to about 1100 sec-1. The greatest strain rate tested is beyond rates expected in most natural fish habitat or during passage through the turbine intake of a hydroelectric dam. The rate of strain experienced by test fish varied based on a change in distance or scale of 1.8 cm, the approximate width of the fish tested. Turbulence intensity in the area of the jet where fish were subjected to the shear environment was +3 to 6% of the estimated exposure strain rate. Injuries and mortalities increased with increasing strain rates. There were no significant injuries to any fish subjected to rates of strain !U500 sec-1. American shad were the most susceptible to injury after being subjected to a shear environment while steelhead and rainbow trout were the most resistant. Fish exposed head first to the jet had higher injury/mortality rates than fish introduced tail first. Our studies reinforce past conclusions that a one-time exposure to shear environments exceeding a change in velocity of 15 m/sec over 1.8 cm is harmful to juvenile fish. The associated exposure strain rate for these velocities is ~850 sec-1 at a measurement scale of Dy = 1.8 cm.

  15. General paediatric surgery for patients aged under 5 years: a 5-year experience at a district general hospital

    PubMed Central

    Gordon, AC

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The gradual shift of general paediatric surgery (GPS) provision from district general hospitals (DGH) to specialised units is well recognised in the UK. The consequences of centralisation include a reduction in exposure to GPS for current surgical trainees. The GPS practice of a DGH is examined here. Methods All operations performed on children aged under 5 years over a 5-year period were identified using the local electronic operation database. Electronic hospital records and clinic letters were accessed to collect data on demographics, operations performed and outcome measures. Results 472 GPS operations were performed on children between the age of 22 days and 5 years between 2009 and 2014, of which 43 were on an emergency basis and 105 were performed on patients aged less than 1 year. Three patients were admitted following day case surgery. Six patients were readmitted within 30 days. Complication rates for all procedures and the four most common procedures were similar to those found in published literature. Conclusions GPS for patients aged less than 5 years is comparatively safe in the DGH setting. The training opportunities available at DGHs are invaluable to surgical trainees and vital for sustaining the future provision of GPS by such hospitals. PMID:27269243

  16. Onychomatricoma: A Case Report with 5-year Follow-up

    PubMed Central

    Ishida, Cleide Eiko; Gouveia, Bruna Melhoranse; Cuzzi, Tullia; Ramos-e-Silva, Marcia

    2016-01-01

    The authors present a case of onychomatricoma, a rare benign tumour of the nail matrix, first described by Baran and Kint in 1992. The lesion appeared on the proximal nail fold, covering half the nail of the second left finger. The nail was thickened and yellowish with longitudinal melanonychia. It was surgically removed with very satisfactory aesthetic results even after 5 years. A review on the subject is also presented. PMID:28163462

  17. Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama.

    PubMed

    Neira, Marco; Lacroix, Renaud; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Kaiser, Paul E; Young, Josue; Pineda, Lleysa; Black, Isaac; Sosa, Nestor; Nimmo, Derric; Alphey, Luke; McKemey, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed.

  18. Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

    PubMed Central

    Neira, Marco; Lacroix, Renaud; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Kaiser, Paul E; Young, Josue; Pineda, Lleysa; Black, Isaac; Sosa, Nestor; Nimmo, Derric; Alphey, Luke; McKemey, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed. PMID:25410991

  19. Sabril® registry 5-year results: Characteristics of adult patients treated with vigabatrin.

    PubMed

    Krauss, Gregory; Faught, Edward; Foroozan, Rod; Pellock, John M; Sergott, Robert C; Shields, W Donald; Ziemann, Adam; Dribinsky, Yekaterina; Lee, Deborah; Torri, Sarah; Othman, Feisal; Isojarvi, Jouko

    2016-03-01

    Vigabatrin (Sabril®), approved in the US in 2009, is currently indicated as adjunctive therapy for refractory complex partial seizures (rCPS) in patients ≥ 10 years old who have responded inadequately to several alternative treatments and as monotherapy for infantile spasms (IS) in patients 1 month to 2 years of age. Because of reports of vision loss following vigabatrin exposure, FDA approval required a risk evaluation mitigation strategy (REMS) program. Vigabatrin is only available in the US through Support, Help, And Resources for Epilepsy (SHARE), which includes a mandated registry. This article describes 5 years of demographic and treatment exposure data from adult patients (≥ 17 years old) in the US treated with vigabatrin and monitored in the ongoing Sabril® registry. Registry participation is mandatory for all US Sabril® prescribers and patients. A benefit-risk assessment must be documented by the physician for a patient to progress to maintenance therapy, defined as 1 month of vigabatrin treatment for patients with IS and 3 months for patients with rCPS. Ophthalmologic assessments must be documented during and after completion of therapy. As of August 26, 2014, a total of 6823 patients were enrolled in the registry, of which 1200 were adults at enrollment. Of these patients, 1031 (86%) were naïve to vigabatrin. The majority of adult patients (n=783, 65%) had previously been prescribed ≥ 4 AEDs, and 719 (60%) were receiving ≥ 3 concomitant AEDs at vigabatrin initiation. Prescribers submitted an initial ophthalmological assessment form for 863 patients; an ophthalmologic exam was not completed for 300 (35%) patients and thus, were considered exempted from vision testing. Of these patients, 128 (43%) were exempted for neurologic disabilities. Clinicians discontinued treatment in 8 patients because of visual field deficits (VFD) (5 patients naïve to vigabatrin and 3 patients previously exposed). Based on Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, it is

  20. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Zabel, Richard; Williams, John G.; Smith, Steven G.

    2002-06-01

    In 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the ninth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. We PIT tagged and released at Lower Granite Dam a total of 17,028 hatchery and 3,550 wild steelhead. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream of the hydropower system and sites within the hydropower system. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release Model. Primary research objectives in 2001 were to: (1) estimate reach and project survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2001 for PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited in the text. Results for summer-migrating chinook salmon will be reported separately.

  1. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2005-2006 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.; Marsh, Douglas M.

    2006-05-01

    In 2005, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the thirteenth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder tags (PIT tags). We PIT tagged and released a total of 18,439 hatchery steelhead, 5,315 wild steelhead, and 6,964 wild yearling Chinook salmon at Lower Granite Dam in the Snake River. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from the hydropower system and at sites within the hydropower system in both the Snake and Columbia Rivers. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, Ice Harbor, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the ''single-release model''). Primary research objectives in 2005 were: (1) Estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss. (2) Evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions. (3) Evaluate the survival estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2005 for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Additional details on the methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here.

  2. Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

    2009-01-01

    Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

  3. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2002-2003 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Muir, William D.; Smith, Steven G.; Zabel, Richard W.

    2003-07-01

    In 2002, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the tenth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder tags (PIT tags). We PIT tagged and released a total of 19,891 hatchery steelhead at Lower Granite Dam. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from the hydropower system and sites within the hydropower system. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the ''Single-Release Model''). Primary research objectives in 2002 were to (1) estimate reach and project survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling chinook salmon O. tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2002 for PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures; details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here. Results for summer-migrating chinook salmon will be reported separately.

  4. Prone Breast Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy: 5-Year Results

    SciTech Connect

    Osa, Etin-Osa O.; DeWyngaert, Keith; Roses, Daniel; Speyer, James; Guth, Amber; Axelrod, Deborah; Fenton Kerimian, Maria; Goldberg, Judith D.; Formenti, Silvia C.

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: To report the 5-year results of a technique of prone breast radiation therapy delivered by a regimen of accelerated intensity modulated radiation therapy with a concurrent boost to the tumor bed. Methods and Materials: Between 2003 and 2006, 404 patients with stage I-II breast cancer were prospectively enrolled into 2 consecutive protocols, institutional trials 03-30 and 05-181, that used the same regimen of 40.5 Gy/15 fractions delivered to the index breast over 3 weeks, with a concomitant daily boost to the tumor bed of 0.5 Gy (total dose 48 Gy). All patients were treated after segmental mastectomy and had negative margins and nodal assessment. Patients were set up prone: only if lung or heart volumes were in the field was a supine setup attempted and chosen if found to better spare these organs. Results: Ninety-two percent of patients were treated prone, 8% supine. Seventy-two percent had stage I, 28% stage II invasive breast cancer. In-field lung volume ranged from 0 to 228.27 cm{sup 3}, mean 19.65 cm{sup 3}. In-field heart volume for left breast cancer patients ranged from 0 to 21.24 cm{sup 3}, mean 1.59 cm{sup 3}. There was no heart in the field for right breast cancer patients. At a median follow-up of 5 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence of isolated ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence was 0.82% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65%-1.04%). The 5-year cumulative incidence of regional recurrence was 0.53% (95% CI 0.41%-0.69%), and the 5-year overall cumulative death rate was 1.28% (95% CI 0.48%-3.38%). Eighty-two percent (95% CI 77%-85%) of patients judged their final cosmetic result as excellent/good. Conclusions: Prone accelerated intensity modulated radiation therapy with a concomitant boost results in excellent local control and optimal sparing of heart and lung, with good cosmesis. Radiation Therapy Oncology Group protocol 1005, a phase 3, multi-institutional, randomized trial is ongoing and is evaluating the equivalence of a similar dose and

  5. Vehicular traffic effects on survival within the Washington University-EPRI veterans cohort: new estimates and sensitivity studies.

    PubMed

    Lipfert, F W; Wyzga, R E; Baty, Jack D; Miller, J Phillip

    2008-08-01

    We analyzed survival patterns among approximately 70,000 U.S. male military veterans relative to vehicular traffic density in their counties of residence, by mortality period and type of exposure model. Previous analyses show traffic density to be a better predictor than concentrations of criteria air pollutants. We considered all subjects and also the subset defined by availability of air quality monitoring data from the U.S. EPA PM(2.5) Speciation Trends Network (STN). Traffic density is a robust predictor of mortality in this cohort; statistically significant estimates of deaths associated with traffic range from 1.3% to 4.4%, depending on the method of analysis. This range of uncertainty is larger than the traditional 95% confidence intervals for each estimate (1-2%). Our best estimate of the relative risk for the entire follow-up period is 1.03. These deaths occurred mainly before 1997 in counties with STN air quality data, which tend to be more urban. We identified a threshold in mortality responses to traffic density, corresponding to county-average traffic flow rates of about 4000 vehicles/day. Relative risks were significantly higher in the more urban (STN) counties in the early subperiods, but this gradient appears to have diminished over time. We found larger risks by pooling results from separate portions of the overall follow-up period, relative to considering the entire period at once, which suggests temporal changes in confounding risk factors such as smoking cessation, for example. These results imply that the true uncertainties in cohort studies may exceed those indicated by the confidence intervals from a single modeling approach.

  6. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2003-2004 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.; Zabel, Richard W.

    2004-01-01

    For juvenile chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, sockeye salmon O. nerka, and steelhead O. mykiss that migrate through reservoirs, hydroelectric projects, and free-flowing sections of the Snake and Columbia Rivers, survival estimates are essential to develop effective strategies for recovering depressed stocks. Many management strategies were based on estimates of system survival (Raymond 1979; Sims and Ossiander 1981) derived in a river system considerably different from today's (Williams and Matthews 1995; Williams et al. 2001). Knowledge of the magnitude, locations, and causes of smolt mortality under present passage conditions, and under conditions projected for the future, are necessary to develop strategies that will optimize smolt survival during migration. From 1993 through 2002, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the University of Washington (UW) demonstrated the feasibility of using three statistical models to estimate survival of PIT-tagged (Prentice et al. 1990a) juvenile salmonids passing through Snake River dams and reservoirs (Iwamoto et al. 1994; Muir et al. 1995, 1996, 2001a, 2003; Smith et al. 1998, 2000a,b; Hockersmith et al. 1999; Zabel et al. 2001, 2002). Evaluation of assumptions for these models indicated that all were generally satisfied, and accurate and precise survival estimates were obtained. In 2003, NMFS and UW completed the eleventh year of the study. Flow levels during the early portion of the 2003 spring migration were similar to 2002, and only slightly higher than in the drought conditions during 2001. However, flow levels were much greater during the later part of the migration in 2003. Spill levels were similar to 2002, much higher than in 2001. Research objectives were to: (1) estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate

  7. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2004-2005 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.; Marsh, Douglas M.

    2005-10-01

    In 2004, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the twelfth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder tags (PIT tags). We PIT tagged and released a total of 19,621 hatchery steelhead, 8,128 wild steelhead, and 9,227 wild yearling Chinook salmon at Lower Granite Dam. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from the hydropower system and sites within the hydropower system. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the single-release model). Primary research objectives in 2004 were to (1) estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2004 for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures; details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here. Survival and detection probabilities were estimated precisely for most of the 2004 yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead migrations. Hatchery and

  8. Survival of timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) estimated by capture-recapture models in relation to age, sex, color morph, time, and birthplace

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, W.S.; Kery, M.; Hines, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Juvenile survival is one of the least known elements of the life history of many species, in particular snakes. We conducted a mark–recapture study of Crotalus horridus from 1978–2002 in northeastern New York near the northern limits of the species' range. We marked 588 neonates and estimated annual age-, sex-, and morph-specific recapture and survival rates using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. Wild-caught neonates (field-born, n  =  407) and neonates produced by captive-held gravid females (lab-born, n  =  181) allowed comparison of the birthplace, or lab treatment effect, in estimated survival. Recapture rates declined from about 10–20% over time while increasing from young to older age classes. Estimated survival rates (S ± 1 SE) in the first year were significantly higher among field-born (black morph: S  =  0.773 ± 0.203; yellow morph: S  =  0.531 ± 0.104) than among lab-born snakes (black morph: S  =  0.411 ± 0.131; yellow morph: S  =  0.301 ± 0.081). Lower birth weights combined with a lack of field exposure until release apparently contributed to the lower survival rate of lab-born snakes. Subsequent survival estimates for 2–4-yr-old snakes were S  =  0.845 ± 0.084 for the black morph and S  =  0.999 (SE not available) for the yellow morph, and for ≥5-yr-old snakes S  =  0.958 ± 0.039 (black morph) and S  =  0.822 ± 0.034 (yellow morph). The most parsimonious model overall contained an independent time trend for survival of each age, morph, and lab-treatment group. For snakes of the first two age groups (ages 1 yr and 2–4 yr), survival tended to decline over the years for both morphs, while for adult snakes (5 yr and older), survival was constant or even slightly increased. Our data on survival and recapture are among the first rigorous estimates of these parameters in a rattlesnake and among the few yet available for any viperid snake. These data are useful for analyses of the life

  9. The acquired cardiac disease domain: the next 5 years.

    PubMed

    Pepper, John R

    2013-01-01

    At a recent in-house meeting at the European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery (EACTS) headquarters in Windsor, the Chairs of the four domains were asked by the President to present their perception of the next 5 years in their respective domains. This review represents a distillation of our discussions on adult cardiac surgery. Advances in technology and imaging are having a radical effect on the working lives of surgeons. In clinical practice, the growth of heart teams and the breaking down of artificial barriers between specialities are altering the way we practice for the better. We see the development of hybrid approaches to many areas such as coronary artery surgery and operations on the thoracic aorta. These changes require careful analysis to ensure that they produce better outcomes that are also cost-effective. All health-care systems are at breaking point, and it is our responsibility to harness new technology to benefit our patients. This is all part of placing the patient at the centre of our activities. Hence, we see the involvement of patients in the design and analysis of clinical trials, which also require great mutual trust and cooperation between surgeons in different countries. Because of the dramatic changes in the pattern of working, we have had to alter our patterns of training and education, and we will continue to make significant innovations in the future. These are exciting challenges that will keep us all busy for the next 5 years at least.

  10. Estimated Fall Chinook Salmon Survival to Emergence in Dewatered Redds in a Shallow Side Channel of the Columbia River

    SciTech Connect

    McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; James, B B.; Lukas, Joe

    2005-08-01

    Fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) often spawn in the tailraces of large hydroelectric dams on the Columbia River. Redds built in shallow habitats downstream of these dams may be periodically dewatered due to hydropower operations prior to the emergence of fry. To determine whether fall Chinook salmon redds were successful in a shallow area subjected to periodic dewatering downstream of Wanapum Dam on the Columbia River, we installed 7 redd caps and monitored fry emergence. Large numbers of live fry were captured from the redds between March 9 and May 18, 2003. Estimated survival from egg to fry for these redds, which were all subjected to some degree of dewatering during the incubation and post-hatch intragravel rearing period, ranged from 16.1 to 63.2 percent and averaged 27.8 percent (assuming 4,500 eggs/redd). The peak emergence date ranged from April 1 to 29, with the average peak about April 14, 2003. Mean fork length of fall Chinook salmon emerging from individual redds ranged from 38.3 to 41.2 mm, and lengths of fish emerging from individual redds increased throughout the emergence period.

  11. Renal amyloidosis followed more than 5 years: report of 12 cases.

    PubMed

    Kaaroud, H; Boubaker, K; Béji, S; Abderrahim, E; Moussa, F Ben; Turki, S; Goucha, R; Hedri, H; El Younsi, F; Kheder, A; Maiz, H Ben

    2004-01-01

    Renal involvement with amyloidosis is common but causes patient survival to be poor, rarely reaching 5 years. In this study, we retrospectively reviewed clinical and biological characteristics as well as treatments and outcomes of patients with renal amyloidosis followed for more than 5 years. Between 1975 and 2003, 485 patients were diagnosed with renal amyloidosis including only 12 patients who were followed more than 5 years. The six men and six women of mean age 42.4 years (range 18 to 66 years) displayed renal signs of lower limb edema in all cases; hypertension in four cases, proteinuria on urinalysis in all cases with microscopic hematuria in five cases. Biological tests showed nephrotic syndrome in 11 patients, normal renal function in nine patients, and renal failure in three patients whose mean creatinine was 481.6 micromol/L (range 294 to 726). The amyloidosis was AA type in 11 cases and non-AA in one case. An etiologic survey revealed spondylarthropathy in one patient, pulmonary tuberculosis in two patients, chronic bronchitis in three patients, hepatic hydatic cyst in one patient, Mediterranean familial fever in two patients, Crohn's disease in one patient, Hodgkin's lymphoma in one patient, and multiple myeloma in one patient. Specific treatment was initiated with colchicine in seven patients. At a 110-month mean follow-up (range 53 to 153 months), remission of nephrotic syndrome was observed in four cases, progression to chronic renal failure in two patients, and to end-stage renal failure in five cases (range 53 to 196 months), with stabilization of renal function in seven patients. In conclusion, primary amyloid disease should be optimally suppressed in patients with renal involvement. The role of this treatment in remission of renal amyloidosis is not well established. This efficacy of the treatment has been demonstrated in some patients with improved survival.

  12. Simulation Study of Estimators for the Survival Probability of a First Passage Time for a Semi-Markov Process Using Censored Data

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-09-01

    Finite state space semi-Markov process find application in many areas. Often interest centers on whether or not the process has hit a particular state before a time t. This thesis reports results of a simulation study of the small behavior for three estimators of the survival probability of a first passage time for a semi-Markov process using censored data. Keywords: Semi- Markov; Kaplan Meier estimator; Confidence interval ; Jackknife; Problem; Theses.

  13. A Bayesian estimation on right censored survival data with mixture and non-mixture cured fraction model based on Beta-Weibull distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusuf, Madaki Umar; Bakar, Mohd. Rizam B. Abu

    2016-06-01

    Models for survival data that includes the proportion of individuals who are not subject to the event under study are known as a cure fraction models or simply called long-term survival models. The two most common models used to estimate the cure fraction are the mixture model and the non-mixture model. in this work, we present mixture and the non-mixture cure fraction models for survival data based on the beta-Weibull distribution. This four parameter distribution has been proposed as an alternative extension of the Weibull distribution in the analysis of lifetime data. This approach allows the inclusion of covariates in the models, where the estimation of the parameters was obtained under a Bayesian approach using Gibbs sampling methods.

  14. Sudden and unexpected death between 1 and 5 years.

    PubMed Central

    Southall, D P; Stebbens, V; Shinebourne, E A

    1987-01-01

    Of a population of 9856 children followed up from birth, 9251 of whom underwent 24 hour tape recordings of electrocardiograms and abdominal wall breathing movements during early infancy, five died suddenly and unexpectedly at home at ages ranging from 16 months to 4 years. Postmortem examination, including full histological and microbiological investigations. failed to identify abnormalities ordinarily associated with death in all five cases. Two of the children were known to have had frequent cyanotic episodes and died during these events. In the three remaining cases there was no previous history of cyanotic or apnoeic episodes. The death of one of these three children was seen by his parents and the clinical features suggested that apnoea rather than a cardiac arrhythmia was the primary mechanism for his death. As in infancy, sudden and unexpected death for which no adequate cause is found at necropsy seems to constitute a major component of mortality between 1 and 5 years. PMID:3632016

  15. Pyomyositis in a 5-year-old child.

    PubMed

    Romeo, S; Sunshine, S

    2000-07-01

    We present a case of pyomyositis in an otherwise healthy 5-year-old child that underscores the potential for serious, life-threatening complications. Pyomyositis of the gluteal, psoas, and iliacus muscles was associated with osteomyelitis, septic arthritis, a large inferior vena cava thrombus, septic pulmonary emboli, and eventual pneumonia. Primary pyomyositis is a purulent infection of striated muscle thought to be caused by seeding from a transient bacteremia. The focal infection typically forms an abscess that generally responds to intravenous antibiotics and occasionally requires adjunctive computed tomography-guided aspiration and drainage. This localized infectious process rarely produces further sequelae unless treatment is delayed. Pyomyositis is rare in healthy individuals and requires a high clinical suspicion in patients who present with fever, leukocytosis, and localized pain.

  16. Statistical analyses for NANOGrav 5-year timing residuals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yan; Cordes, James M.; Jenet, Fredrick A.; Chatterjee, Shami; Demorest, Paul B.; Dolch, Timothy; Ellis, Justin A.; Lam, Michael T.; Madison, Dustin R.; McLaughlin, Maura A.; Perrodin, Delphine; Rankin, Joanna; Siemens, Xavier; Vallisneri, Michele

    2017-02-01

    In pulsar timing, timing residuals are the differences between the observed times of arrival and predictions from the timing model. A comprehensive timing model will produce featureless residuals, which are presumably composed of dominating noise and weak physical effects excluded from the timing model (e.g. gravitational waves). In order to apply optimal statistical methods for detecting weak gravitational wave signals, we need to know the statistical properties of noise components in the residuals. In this paper we utilize a variety of non-parametric statistical tests to analyze the whiteness and Gaussianity of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 5-year timing data, which are obtained from Arecibo Observatory and Green Bank Telescope from 2005 to 2010. We find that most of the data are consistent with white noise; many data deviate from Gaussianity at different levels, nevertheless, removing outliers in some pulsars will mitigate the deviations.

  17. Modifiable diarrhoea risk factors in Egyptian children aged <5 years.

    PubMed

    Mansour, A M; Mohammady, H El; Shabrawi, M El; Shabaan, S Y; Zekri, M Abou; Nassar, M; Salem, M E; Mostafa, M; Riddle, M S; Klena, J D; Messih, I A Abdel; Levin, S; Young, S Y N

    2013-12-01

    By conducting a case-control study in two university hospitals, we explored the association between modifiable risk behaviours and diarrhoea. Children aged <5 years attending outpatient clinics for diarrhoea were matched by age and sex with controls. Data were collected on family demographics, socioeconomic indicators, and risk behaviour practices. Two rectal swabs and a stool specimen were collected from cases and controls. Samples were cultured for bacterial pathogens using standard techniques and tested by ELISA to detect rotavirus and Cryptosporidium spp. Four hundred cases and controls were enrolled between 2007 and 2009. The strongest independent risk factors for diarrhoea were: presence of another household member with diarrhoea [matched odds ratio (mOR) 4.9, 95% CI 2.8-8.4] in the week preceding the survey, introduction to a new kind of food (mOR 3, 95% CI 1.7-5.4), and the child being cared for outside home (mOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.2). While these risk factors are not identifiable, in some age groups more easily modifiable risk factors were identified including: having no soap for handwashing (mOR 6.3, 95% CI 1.2-33.9) for children aged 7-12 months, and pacifier use (mOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0-3.5) in children aged 0-6 months. In total, the findings of this study suggest that community-based interventions to improve practices related to sanitation and hygiene, handwashing and food could be utilized to reduce the burden of diarrhoea in Egyptian children aged <5 years.

  18. Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

    PubMed Central

    Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

  19. Donor Age and Corneal Endothelial Cell Loss 5 Years after Successful Corneal Transplantation: Specular Microscopy Ancillary Study Results

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Objective To determine whether endothelial cell loss 5 years after successful corneal transplantation is related to the age of the donor. Design Multicenter, prospective, double-masked clinical trial. Participants Three hundred forty-seven subjects participating in the Cornea Donor Study who had not experienced graft failure 5 years after corneal transplantation for a moderate-risk condition (principally Fuchs’ dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema). Testing Specular microscopic images of donor corneas obtained before surgery and postoperatively at 6 months, 12 months, and then annually through 5 years were submitted to a central reading center to measure endothelial cell density (ECD). Main Outcome Measure Endothelial cell density at 5 years. Results At 5 years, there was a substantial decrease in ECD from baseline for all donor ages. Subjects who received a cornea from a donor 12 to 65 years old experienced a median cell loss of 69% in the study eye, resulting in a 5-year median ECD of 824 cells/mm2 (interquartile range, 613–1342), whereas subjects who received a cornea from a donor 66 to 75 years old experienced a cell loss of 75%, resulting in a median 5-year ECD of 654 cells/mm2 (interquartile range, 538–986) (P [adjusted for baseline ECD] = 0.04). Statistically, there was a weak negative association between ECD and donor age analyzed as a continuous variable (r [adjusted for baseline ECD] = −0.19; 95% confidence interval, −0.29 to −0.08). Conclusions Endothelial cell loss is substantial in the 5 years after corneal transplantation. There is a slight association between cell loss and donor age. This finding emphasizes the importance of longer-term follow-up of this cohort to determine if this relationship affects graft survival. PMID:18387408

  20. Childhood cancer survival in France, 2000-2008.

    PubMed

    Lacour, Brigitte; Goujon, Stéphanie; Guissou, Sandra; Guyot-Goubin, Aurélie; Desmée, Solène; Désandes, Emmanuel; Clavel, Jacqueline

    2014-09-01

    This paper reports the latest survival data for French childhood cancer patients at the national level. Data from the two French National Registries of Childhood Cancer (Haematopoietic Malignancies and Solid Tumours) were used to describe survival outcomes for 15,479 children diagnosed with cancer between 2000 and 2008 in mainland France. The overall survival was 91.7% at 1 year, 86.9% at 2 years and 81.6% at 5 years. Relative survival did not differ from overall survival even for infants. Survival was lower among infants for lymphoblastic leukaemia and astrocytoma, but higher for neuroblastoma. For all cancers considered together, 5-year survival increased from 79.5% in the first (2000-2002) diagnostic period to 83.2% in the last (2006-2008) period. The improvement was significant for leukaemia, both myeloid and lymphoid, central nervous system tumours (ependymoma) and neuroblastoma. The results remained valid in the multivariate analysis, and, for all cancers combined, the risk of death decreased by 20% between 2000-2002 and 2006-2008. The figures are consistent with various international estimates and are the result of progress in treatment regimens and collaborative clinical trials. The challenge for the French registries is now to study the long-term follow-up of survivors to estimate the incidence of long-term morbidities and adverse effects of treatments.

  1. Development of a study design and implementation plan to estimate juvenile salmon survival in Lookout Point Reservoir and other reservoirs of the Willamette Project, western Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kock, Tobias J.; Perry, Russell W.; Monzyk, Fred R.; Pope, Adam C.; Plumb, John M.

    2016-12-23

    Survival estimates for juvenile salmon and steelhead fry in reservoirs impounded by high head dams are coveted data by resource managers.  However, this information is difficult to obtain because these fish are too small for tagging using conventional methods such as passive-integrated transponders or radio or acoustic transmitters.  We developed a study design and implementation plan to conduct a pilot evaluation that would assess the performance of two models for estimating fry survival in a field setting.  The first model is a staggered-release recovery model that was described by Skalski and others (2009) and Skalski (2016).  The second model is a parentage-based tagging N-mixture model that was developed and described in this document.  Both models are conceptually and statistically sound, but neither has been evaluated in the field.  In this document we provide an overview of a proposed study for 2017 in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon, that will evaluate survival of Chinook salmon fry using both models.  This approach will allow us to test each model and compare survival estimates, to determine model performance and better understand these study designs using field-collected data.

  2. Cell survival fraction estimation based on the probability densities of domain and cell nucleus specific energies using improved microdosimetric kinetic models.

    PubMed

    Sato, Tatsuhiko; Furusawa, Yoshiya

    2012-10-01

    Estimation of the survival fractions of cells irradiated with various particles over a wide linear energy transfer (LET) range is of great importance in the treatment planning of charged-particle therapy. Two computational models were developed for estimating survival fractions based on the concept of the microdosimetric kinetic model. They were designated as the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models. The former model takes into account the stochastic natures of both domain and cell nucleus specific energies, whereas the latter model represents the stochastic nature of domain specific energy by its approximated mean value and variance to reduce the computational time. The probability densities of the domain and cell nucleus specific energies are the fundamental quantities for expressing survival fractions in these models. These densities are calculated using the microdosimetric and LET-estimator functions implemented in the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS) in combination with the convolution or database method. Both the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models can reproduce the measured survival fractions for high-LET and high-dose irradiations, whereas a previously proposed microdosimetric kinetic model predicts lower values for these fractions, mainly due to intrinsic ignorance of the stochastic nature of cell nucleus specific energies in the calculation. The models we developed should contribute to a better understanding of the mechanism of cell inactivation, as well as improve the accuracy of treatment planning of charged-particle therapy.

  3. A comparison of conventional capture versus PIT reader techniques for estimating survival and capture probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellison, L.E.; O'Shea, T.J.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Pearce, R.D.; Bowen, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    We compared conventional capture (primarily mist nets and harp traps) and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging techniques for estimating capture and survival probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) roosting in buildings in Fort Collins, Colorado. A total of 987 female adult and juvenile bats were captured and marked by subdermal injection of PIT tags during the summers of 2001-2005 at five maternity colonies in buildings. Openings to roosts were equipped with PIT hoop-style readers, and exit and entry of bats were passively monitored on a daily basis throughout the summers of 2002-2005. PIT readers 'recaptured' adult and juvenile females more often than conventional capture events at each roost. Estimates of annual capture probabilities for all five colonies were on average twice as high when estimated from PIT reader data (P?? = 0.93-1.00) than when derived from conventional techniques (P?? = 0.26-0.66), and as a consequence annual survival estimates were more precisely estimated when using PIT reader encounters. Short-term, daily capture estimates were also higher using PIT readers than conventional captures. We discuss the advantages and limitations of using PIT tags and passive encounters with hoop readers vs. conventional capture techniques for estimating these vital parameters in big brown bats. ?? Museum and Institute of Zoology PAS.

  4. An enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay for estimating red cell survival of transfused red cells-validation using CR-51 labeling

    SciTech Connect

    Drew, H.; Kickler, T.; Smith, B.; LaFrance, N.

    1984-01-01

    The survival time of transfused red cells antigenically distinct from the recipient's red cells was determined using an indirect enzyme linked antiglobulin test. These results were then compared to those determined by Cr-51 labeling. Three patients with hypoproliferative anemias and one patient (2 studies) with traumatic hemolytic anemia caused by a prosthetic heart valve were studied. Survival times were performed by transfusing a 5cc aliquot of Cr-51 labeled cells along with the remaining unit. One hour post transfusion, a blood sample was drawn and used as the 100% value. Subsequent samples drawn over a 2-3 week period were then compared to the initial sample to determine percent survival for both methods. The ELISA method for measuring red cell survival in antigenically distinct cells is in close agreement with the Cr-51 method. Although CR-51 labeling is the accepted method for red cell survival determination the ELISA method can be used when radioisotopes are unavailable or contraindicated or when the decision to estimate red cell survival is made after transfusion.

  5. Minimal access surgery in children – 5 years institutional experience

    PubMed Central

    Oak, S N; Parelkar, S V; Akhtar, T; Joshi, M; Pathak, R; Viswanath, N; V, K Satish Kumar; Ravikiran, K; Manjunath, L; Ahmed, A

    2005-01-01

    Context: Minimal access surgery (MAS) in children are common place and performed worldwide with gratifying results as the learning curve of the surgeon attains plateau. We share our experience of this technically evolving modality of surgery, performed at our setup over a period of 5 years. We also review and individually compare the data for commonly performed procedures with other available series. Author also briefly discuss potential advantages of MAS in certain debatable conditions performed quickly and with cosmesis as open procedure. Materials and methods: We performed 677 MAS in children aged between 7 days and 12 years. Five hundred and sixty-eight of these were Laparoscopic procedures and 109 were Video assisted thoracoscopic surgeries (VATS). In all laparoscopic procedures, the primary port placement was by the Hasson's open technique. We have used 5, 3 and 2 mm instruments. Our study include 259 inguinal hernia, 161 Appendectomies, 95 VATS for empyema, 51 orchiopexies, 49 diagnostic laparoscopy, 29 cholecystectomies, 22 adhesionlysis and other uncommonly performed procedures. Results: The ultimate outcome of all the performed procedures showed gratifying trend, the data of which are discussed in detail in the article. Conclusion: As we gained experience the operating time showed a decreasing trend, the complication rates and conversion rate also reduced. The advantages we came across were better postoperative appearances, less pain and early return to unrestricted activities. PMID:21188009

  6. Calcium supplements and cardiovascular risk: 5 years on.

    PubMed

    Bolland, Mark J; Grey, Andrew; Reid, Ian R

    2013-10-01

    Calcium supplements have been widely used by older men and women. However, in little more than a decade, authoritative recommendations have changed from encouraging the widespread use of calcium supplements to stating that they should not be used for primary prevention of fractures. This substantial shift in recommendations has occurred as a result of accumulated evidence of marginal antifracture efficacy, and important adverse effects from large randomized controlled trials of calcium or coadministered calcium and vitamin D supplements. In this review, we discuss this evidence, with a particular focus on increased cardiovascular risk with calcium supplements, which we first described 5 years ago. Calcium supplements with or without vitamin D marginally reduce total fractures but do not prevent hip fractures in community-dwelling individuals. They also cause kidney stones, acute gastrointestinal events, and increase the risk of myocardial infarction and stroke. Any benefit of calcium supplements on preventing fracture is outweighed by increased cardiovascular events. While there is little evidence to suggest that dietary calcium intake is associated with cardiovascular risk, there is also little evidence that it is associated with fracture risk. Therefore, for the majority of people, dietary calcium intake does not require close scrutiny. Because of the unfavorable risk/benefit profile, widespread prescribing of calcium supplements to prevent fractures should be abandoned. Patients at high risk of fracture should be encouraged to take agents with proven efficacy in preventing vertebral and nonvertebral fractures.

  7. Profiling the ethnic characteristics of domestic injuries in children younger than age 5 years.

    PubMed

    Oyetunji, Tolulope A; Stevenson, Adrienne A; Oyetunji, Aderonke O; Onguti, Sharon K; Ames, Sarah A; Haider, Adil H; Nwomeh, Benedict C

    2012-04-01

    The home remains a very common location for deadly injuries among children younger than 5 years. The aim of this study is to describe the demographic and injury characteristics of domestic injuries in children younger than 5 years. The National Trauma Data Bank's National Sample Program data set was queried for children younger than 5 years with the injury site classified as home. Bivariate analysis was performed to determine unadjusted differences by ethnicity. Appropriate weight was applied to the sample to determine accurate national estimates. A total of 7,364 children, representing 32,033 children, were analyzed. Overall mortality was 1.6 per cent. Among whites, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and Native Americans, intentional injuries accounted for 6.5, 12.8, 10.2, 5.2, and 19.0 per cent of all injuries by intent, respectively (P < 0.003). Burn injury was disproportionately higher in blacks (24.1%) followed by Native Americans and Asians (15.3 and 11.5%, P = 0.008). On multivariate analysis, black ethnicity was associated with increased length of stay. Intentional injuries were significantly higher in blacks and Native Americans with black patients sustaining a disproportionately higher proportion of burn injury. Therefore, greater attention is needed to provide more effective home safety interventions to children among high-risk ethnic groups.

  8. Working with Workflows: Highlights from 5 years Building Scientific Workflows

    SciTech Connect

    Critchlow, Terence J.; Altintas, Ilkay; Chin, George; Crawl, Daniel; Iyer, H.; Khan, Ayla; Klasky, S.; Koehler, Sven; Ludaescher, Bertram T.; Mouallem, Pierre; Nagappan, Mie; Podhorszki, Norbert; Shoshani, Arie; Silva, C.; Tchoua, Roselynne; Vouk, M.

    2011-07-30

    In 2006, the SciDAC Scientific Data Management (SDM) Center proposed to continue its work deploying leading edge data management and analysis capabilities to scientific applications. One of three thrust areas within the proposed center was focused on Scientific Process Automation (SPA) using workflow technology. As a founding member of the Kepler consortium [LAB+09], the SDM Center team was well positioned to begin deploying workflows immediately. We were also keenly aware of some of the deficiencies in Kepler when applied to high performance computing workflows, which allowed us to focus our research and development efforts on critical new capabilities which were ultimately integrated into the Kepler open source distribution, benefiting the entire community. Significant work was required to ensure Kepler was capable of supporting large-scale production runs for SciDAC applications. Our work on generic actors and templates have improved the portability of workflows across machines and provided a higher level of abstraction for workflow developers. Fault tolerance and provenance tracking were obvious areas for improvement within Kepler given the longevity and complexity of our target workflows. To monitor workflow execution, we developed and deployed a web-based dashboard. We then generalized this interface and released it so it could be deployed at other locations. Outreach has always been a primary focus of our work and we had many successful deployments across a number of scientific domains while continually publishing and presenting our work. This short paper describes our most significant accomplishments over the past 5 years. Additional information about the SDM Center can be found in the companion paper: The Scientific Data Management Center: Available Technologies and Highlights.

  9. Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture-recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network.

    PubMed

    Letcher, Benjamin H; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D; Nislow, Keith H; Coombs, Jason A; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B; Whiteley, Andrew R; O'Donnell, Matthew J; Dubreuil, Todd L

    2015-03-01

    Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses. We developed an integrated capture-recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival. We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature. Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative

  10. First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis.

    PubMed

    Carroll, E L; Fewster, R M; Childerhouse, S J; Patenaude, N J; Boren, L; Baker, C S

    2016-01-01

    Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6-12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species' primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995-1998 and 2006-2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2-8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time.

  11. First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, E. L.; Fewster, R. M.; Childerhouse, S. J.; Patenaude, N. J.; Boren, L.; Baker, C. S.

    2016-01-01

    Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6–12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species’ primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995–1998 and 2006–2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2–8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time. PMID:26751689

  12. Coral reefs in Saudi Arabia: 3.5 years after the Gulf War oil spill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogt, I. P.

    1995-11-01

    As a consequence of the 1991 Gulf War, 6-8 million barrels of oil were released into the marine environment and a total of 1.12 billion barrels were burned in the Kuwaiti oil fields. In order to detect delayed effects of the Gulf War pollution, six permanent transect lines were placed on Saudi Arabian offshore and inshore reefs. A comparison of three sets of video recordings taken between 1992 and 1994 indicated a significant increase in live coral cover. Therefore, it has been concluded that corals in Saudi Arabia survived the largest oil spill on record remarkably unscathed, with no visible signs of immediate or late effects up to 3.5 years after the Gulf War.

  13. The Influence of Tag Presence on the Mortality of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Exposed to Simulated Hydroturbine Passage: Implications for Survival Estimates and Management of Hydroelectric Facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Carlson, Thomas J.; Brown, Richard S.; Stephenson, John R.; Pflugrath, Brett D.; Colotelo, Alison HA; Gingerich, Andrew J.; Benjamin, Piper L.; Langeslay, Mike; Ahmann, Martin L.; Johnson, Robert L.; Skalski, John R.; Seaburg, Adam; Townsend, Richard L.

    2012-05-01

    Each year, millions of fish have telemetry tags (acoustic, radio, inductive) surgically implanted to assess their passage and survival through hydropower facilities. One route of passage of particular concern is through hydro turbines, in which fish may be exposed to a range of potential injuries, including barotraumas from rapid decompression. The change in pressure from acclimation to exposure (nadir) has been found to be an important factor in predicting the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon undergoing rapid decompression associated with simulated turbine passage. The presence of telemetry tags has also been shown to influence the likelihood of injury and mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon. This research investigated the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon carrying telemetry tags and exposed to a range of simulated turbine passage. Several factors were examined as predictors of mortal injury for fish undergoing rapid decompression, and the ratio of pressure change and tag burden were determined to be the most predictive factors. As the ratio of pressure change and tag burden increase, the likelihood of mortal injury also increases. The results of this study suggest that previous survival estimates of juvenile Chinook salmon passing through hydro turbines may have been biased due to the presence of telemetry tags, and this has direct implications to the management of hydroelectric facilities. Realistic examples indicate how the bias in turbine passage survival estimates could be 20% or higher, depending on the mass of the implanted tags and the ratio of acclimation to exposure pressures. Bias would increase as the tag burden and pressure ratio increase, and have direct implications on survival estimates. It is recommended that future survival studies use the smallest telemetry tags possible to minimize the potential bias that may be associated with carrying the tag.

  14. The risks and benefits of long-term use of hydroxyurea in sickle cell anemia: A 17.5 year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Steinberg, Martin H; McCarthy, William F; Castro, Oswaldo; Ballas, Samir K; Armstrong, F Danny; Smith, Wally; Ataga, Kenneth; Swerdlow, Paul; Kutlar, Abdullah; DeCastro, Laura; Waclawiw, Myron A

    2010-06-01

    A randomized, controlled clinical trial established the efficacy and safety of short-term use of hydroxyurea in adult sickle cell anemia. To examine the risks and benefits of long-term hydroxyurea usage, patients in this trial were followed for 17.5 years during which they could start or stop hydroxyurea. The purpose of this follow-up was to search for adverse outcomes and estimate mortality. For each outcome and for mortality, exact 95% confidence intervals were calculated, or tests were conducted at alpha = 0.05 level (P-value <0.05 for statistical significance). Although the death rate in the overall study cohort was high (43.1%; 4.4 per 100 person-years), mortality was reduced in individuals with long-term exposure to hydroxyurea. Survival curves demonstrated a significant reduction in deaths with long-term exposure. Twenty-four percent of deaths were due to pulmonary complications; 87.1% occurred in patients who never took hydroxyurea or took it for <5 years. Stroke, organ dysfunction, infection, and malignancy were similar in all groups. Our results, while no longer the product of a randomized study because of the ethical concerns of withholding an efficacious treatment, suggest that long-term use of hydroxyurea is safe and might decrease mortality.

  15. Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

    PubMed

    Battaile, Brian C; Trites, Andrew W

    2013-01-01

    We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL) method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864); northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758); and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776))--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

  16. A 5-year experience with an elective scholarly concentrations program

    PubMed Central

    George, Paul; Green, Emily P.; Park, Yoon S.; Gruppuso, Philip A.

    2015-01-01

    Problem Programs that encourage scholarly activities beyond the core curriculum and traditional biomedical research are now commonplace among US medical schools. Few studies have generated outcome data for these programs. The goal of the present study was to address this gap. Intervention The Scholarly Concentration (SC) Program, established in 2006 at the Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, is a 4-year elective program that not only encourages students to pursue scholarly work that may include traditional biomedical research but also seeks to broaden students’ focus to include less traditional areas. We compared characteristics and academic performance of SC students and non-SC students for the graduating classes of 2010–2014. Context Approximately one-third of our students opt to complete an SC during their 4-year undergraduate medical education. Because this program is additional to the regular MD curriculum, we sought to investigate whether SC students sustained the academic achievement of non-SC students while at the same time producing scholarly work as part of the program. Outcome Over 5 years, 35% of students elected to enter the program and approximately 81% of these students completed the program. The parameters that were similar for both SC and non-SC students were age at matriculation, admission route, proportion of undergraduate science majors, and number of undergraduate science courses. Most academic indicators, including United States Medical Licensing Examinations scores, were similar for the two groups; however, SC students achieved more honors in the six core clerkships and were more likely to be inducted into the medical school's two honor societies. Residency specialties selected by graduates in the two groups were similar. SC students published an average of 1.3 peer-reviewed manuscripts per student, higher than the 0.8 manuscripts per non-SC student (p=0.013). Conclusions An elective, interdisciplinary scholarly program with

  17. A multilevel excess hazard model to estimate net survival on hierarchical data allowing for non-linear and non-proportional effects of covariates.

    PubMed

    Charvat, Hadrien; Remontet, Laurent; Bossard, Nadine; Roche, Laurent; Dejardin, Olivier; Rachet, Bernard; Launoy, Guy; Belot, Aurélien

    2016-08-15

    The excess hazard regression model is an approach developed for the analysis of cancer registry data to estimate net survival, that is, the survival of cancer patients that would be observed if cancer was the only cause of death. Cancer registry data typically possess a hierarchical structure: individuals from the same geographical unit share common characteristics such as proximity to a large hospital that may influence access to and quality of health care, so that their survival times might be correlated. As a consequence, correct statistical inference regarding the estimation of net survival and the effect of covariates should take this hierarchical structure into account. It becomes particularly important as many studies in cancer epidemiology aim at studying the effect on the excess mortality hazard of variables, such as deprivation indexes, often available only at the ecological level rather than at the individual level. We developed here an approach to fit a flexible excess hazard model including a random effect to describe the unobserved heterogeneity existing between different clusters of individuals, and with the possibility to estimate non-linear and time-dependent effects of covariates. We demonstrated the overall good performance of the proposed approach in a simulation study that assessed the impact on parameter estimates of the number of clusters, their size and their level of unbalance. We then used this multilevel model to describe the effect of a deprivation index defined at the geographical level on the excess mortality hazard of patients diagnosed with cancer of the oral cavity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. A Field Evaluation of an External and Neutrally Buoyant Acoustic Transmitter for Juvenile Salmon: Implications for Estimating Hydroturbine Passage Survival

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Richard S.; Deng, Z. Daniel; Cook, Katrina V.; Pflugrath, Brett D.; Li, Xinya; Fu, Tao; Martinez, Jayson J.; Li, Huidong; Trumbo, Bradly A.; Ahmann, Martin L.; Seaburg, Adam G.

    2013-01-01

    Turbine-passed fish are exposed to rapid decreases in pressure which can cause barotrauma. The presence of an implanted telemetry tag increases the likelihood of injury or death from exposure to pressure changes, thus potentially biasing studies evaluating survival of turbine-passed fish. Therefore, a neutrally buoyant externally attached tag was developed to eliminate this bias in turbine passage studies. This new tag was designed not to add excess mass in water or take up space in the coelom, having an effective tag burden of zero with the goal of reducing pressure related biases to turbine survival studies. To determine if this new tag affects fish performance or susceptibility to predation, it was evaluated in the field relative to internally implanted acoustic transmitters (JSATS; Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System) used widely for survival studies of juvenile salmonids. Survival and travel time through the study reach was compared between fish with either tag type in an area of high predation in the Snake and Columbia rivers, Washington. An additional group of fish affixed with neutrally-buoyant dummy external tags were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and recovered further downstream to assess external tag retention and injury. There were no significant differences in survival to the first detection site, 12 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of release. Travel times were also similar between groups. Conversely, externally-tagged fish had reduced survival (or elevated tag loss) to the second detection site, 65 rkm downstream. In addition, the retention study revealed that tag loss was first observed in fish recaptured approximately 9 days after release. Results suggest that this new tag may be viable for short term (<8 days) single-dam turbine-passage studies and under these situations, may alleviate the turbine passage-related bias encountered when using internal tags, however further research is needed to confirm this. PMID

  19. A field evaluation of an external and neutrally buoyant acoustic transmitter for juvenile salmon: implications for estimating hydroturbine passage survival.

    PubMed

    Brown, Richard S; Deng, Z Daniel; Cook, Katrina V; Pflugrath, Brett D; Li, Xinya; Fu, Tao; Martinez, Jayson J; Li, Huidong; Trumbo, Bradly A; Ahmann, Martin L; Seaburg, Adam G

    2013-01-01

    Turbine-passed fish are exposed to rapid decreases in pressure which can cause barotrauma. The presence of an implanted telemetry tag increases the likelihood of injury or death from exposure to pressure changes, thus potentially biasing studies evaluating survival of turbine-passed fish. Therefore, a neutrally buoyant externally attached tag was developed to eliminate this bias in turbine passage studies. This new tag was designed not to add excess mass in water or take up space in the coelom, having an effective tag burden of zero with the goal of reducing pressure related biases to turbine survival studies. To determine if this new tag affects fish performance or susceptibility to predation, it was evaluated in the field relative to internally implanted acoustic transmitters (JSATS; Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System) used widely for survival studies of juvenile salmonids. Survival and travel time through the study reach was compared between fish with either tag type in an area of high predation in the Snake and Columbia rivers, Washington. An additional group of fish affixed with neutrally-buoyant dummy external tags were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and recovered further downstream to assess external tag retention and injury. There were no significant differences in survival to the first detection site, 12 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of release. Travel times were also similar between groups. Conversely, externally-tagged fish had reduced survival (or elevated tag loss) to the second detection site, 65 rkm downstream. In addition, the retention study revealed that tag loss was first observed in fish recaptured approximately 9 days after release. Results suggest that this new tag may be viable for short term (<8 days) single-dam turbine-passage studies and under these situations, may alleviate the turbine passage-related bias encountered when using internal tags, however further research is needed to confirm this.

  20. 5-Year Downstream Outcomes Following Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) Screening in Older Men

    PubMed Central

    Walter, Louise C.; Fung, Kathy Z.; Kirby, Katharine A.; Shi, Ying; Espaldon, Roxanne; O'Brien, Sarah; Freedland, Stephen J.; Powell, Adam A.; Hoffman, Richard M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Despite ongoing controversies surrounding PSA screening, large numbers of men age 65+ undergo screening. However, there are few data quantifying the chain of events following screening in clinical practice to better inform decisions. The objective of this study is to quantify 5-year downstream outcomes following a PSA screening result > 4 ng/ml in older men. Methods Longitudinal cohort study of 295,645 men age 65+ who underwent PSA screening in the VA healthcare system in 2003 and were followed for 5 years using national VA and Medicare data. Among men whose index screening PSA was > 4 ng/ml we determined the number who underwent biopsy, were diagnosed with prostate cancer, were treated and survived 5-years, according to baseline characteristics. Biopsy and treatment complications were also assessed. Results 25,208 (8.5%) men had an index PSA > 4 ng/ml. During 5-year follow-up, 8,313 (33%) men underwent at least one biopsy, 5,220 (63%) of men biopsied were diagnosed with prostate cancer of whom 4,284 (82%) were treated. Receipt of biopsy decreased with advancing age and worsening comorbidity (P<0.001), whereas the percentage treated for biopsy-detected cancer exceeded 75% even among men age 85+, those with Charlson score 3+, and those with low-risk cancer. Among men with biopsy-detected cancer, the risk of dying of non-prostate cancer causes increased with advancing age and comorbidity (P<0.001). 468 (6%) of men had 7-day biopsy complications. Treatment complications included 584 (14%) men with new incontinence and 588 (14%) men with new erectile dysfunction. Conclusions Receipt of biopsy is low in older men with abnormal screening PSA and decreases with advancing age and comorbidity. However, once biopsy detects cancer most men undergo immediate treatment regardless of advancing age, comorbidity, or low-risk cancer. Understanding downstream outcomes in clinical practice should better inform individualized decisions among older men considering PSA

  1. Prevalence of Overweight and Risk of Overweight among 3-to 5-Year-Old Chicago Children, 2002-2003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, Maryann; Meleedy-Rey, Patricia; Christoffel, Katherine Kaufer; Longjohn, Matt; Garcia, Myrna P.; Ashlaw, Catherine

    2006-01-01

    This article reports the first estimates of overweight prevalence in Chicago children entering school (aged 3-5 years). Chicago data are compared with those from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS). Data were from 2 separate convenience samples of children aged 3-5 years…

  2. WMAP 5-year constraints on α and me

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scóccola, Claudia G.; Landau, Susana J.; Vucetich, Héctor

    2010-11-01

    We have studied the role of fundamental constants in an updated recombination scenario. We focus on the time variation of the fine structure constant α, and the electron mass me in the early Universe. In the last years, helium recombination has been studied in great detail revealing the importance of taking new physical processes into account in the calculation of the recombination history. The equations to solve the detailed recombination scenario can be found for example in Wong et al. 2008. In the equation for helium recombination, a term which accounts for the semi-forbidden transition 23p-11s is added. Furthermore, the continuum opacity of HI is taken into account by a modification in the escape probability of the photons that excite helium atoms, with the fitting formulae proposed Kholupenko et al 2007. We have analized the dependences of the quantities involved in the detailed recombination scenario on α and me. We have performed a statistical analysis with COSMOMC to constrain the variation of α and me at the time of neutral hydrogen formation. The observational set used for the analysis was data from the WMAP 5-year temperature and temperature-polarization power spectrum and other CMB experiments such as CBI, ACBAR and BOOMERANG and the power spectrum of the 2dFGRS. Considering the joint variation of α and me we obtain the following bounds: -0.011 < {Δα}/{α_0} < 0.019 and -0.068 < {Δ m_e}/{(m_e)_0 < 0.030 (68% c.l.). When considering only the variation of one fundamental constant we obtain: -0.010 < {Δ α}/{α_0} < 0.008 and -0.04 < {Δ m_e}/{(m_e)_0} < 0.02 (68% c.l.). We compare these results with the ones presented in Landau et al 2008, which were obtained in the standard recombination scenario and using WMAP 3 year release data. The constraints are tighter in the current analysis, which is an expectable fact since we are working with more accurate data from WMAP. The bounds obtained are consistent with null variation, for both α and me, but

  3. Resection for oesophageal cancer - complications and survival.

    PubMed

    Grøtting, Marie Sæthre; Løberg, Else Marit; Johannessen, Hans-Olaf; Johnson, Egil

    2016-05-01

    BACKGROUND Surgery is considered necessary to achieve a cure for oesophageal cancer. Minimally invasive oesophageal resection is increasingly performed with the aim of reducing the number of complications compared with open surgery. The purpose of this study was to investigate postoperative complications, mortality and long-term survival following hybrid oesophageal resection by laparoscopy and thoracotomy.MATERIAL AND METHOD Patients with oesophageal cancer who underwent hybrid resection with curative intent at Oslo University Hospital Ullevål from 1 November 2007 to 1 June 2013 were included (n = 109). Complications were graded according to the Clavien-Dindo classification and survival figures were recorded.RESULTS Median age was 65 years, 79 % were men. Altogether 118 complications were recorded in 70 patients (64.2 %). Distribution of complications was 1.8 % for stage I, 29.4 % for stage II, 22.1 % for stage III and 11.0 % for stage IV. Anastomotic leakage occurred in 4.6 %. There was no postoperative mortality. The proportion of R0 resections with microscopic radicality was 91 % (n = 100). For the entire patient population, the estimated 5-year survival rate was 48 % (95 % CI 36 - 60 %), for R0 resection 51 % (38 - 63 %) and for R1-2 resection 0 %. Estimated median survival with R0-2, R0 and R1-2 resection was 55, 55 and 10 months (0 - 28 months), respectively. R status and stage had a significant bearing on survival.INTERPRETATION There was a low percentage of serious complications, no mortality and few anastomotic leakages after hybrid resection for oesophageal cancer. The 5-year survival rate was good.

  4. Economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced squamous NSCLC in Canada: a comparison of modeling approaches to estimate and extrapolate survival outcomes.

    PubMed

    Goeree, Ron; Villeneuve, Julie; Goeree, Jeff; Penrod, John R; Orsini, Lucinda; Tahami Monfared, Amir Abbas

    2016-06-01

    Background Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer in the world and is associated with significant mortality. Nivolumab demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were previously treated. The cost-effectiveness of nivolumab has not been assessed in Canada. A contentious component of projecting long-term cost and outcomes in cancer relates to the modeling approach adopted, with the two most common approaches being partitioned survival (PS) and Markov models. The objectives of this analysis were to estimate the cost-utility of nivolumab and to compare the results using these alternative modeling approaches. Methods Both PS and Markov models were developed using docetaxel and erlotinib as comparators. A three-health state model was used consisting of progression-free, progressed disease, and death. Disease progression and time to progression were estimated by identifying best-fitting survival curves from the clinical trial data for PFS and OS. Expected costs and health outcomes were calculated by combining health-state occupancy with medical resource use and quality-of-life assigned to each of the three health states. The health outcomes included in the model were survival and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs). Results Nivolumab was found to have the highest expected per-patient cost, but also improved per-patient life years (LYs) and QALYs. Nivolumab cost an additional $151,560 and $140,601 per QALY gained compared to docetaxel and erlotinib, respectively, using a PS model approach. The cost-utility estimates using a Markov model were very similar ($152,229 and $141,838, respectively, per QALY gained). Conclusions Nivolumab was found to involve a trade-off between improved patient survival and QALYs, and increased cost. It was found that the use of a PS or Markov model produced very similar estimates of expected cost

  5. Psychomotor development in Argentinean children aged 0-5 years.

    PubMed

    Lejarraga, Horacio; Pascucci, María Cecilia; Krupitzky, Sara; Kelmansky, Diana; Bianco, Ana; Martínez, Elena; Tibaldi, Fabián; Cameron, Noel

    2002-01-01

    In Argentina, there is no information on ages of attainment of developmental milestones and very few data about environmental factors that influence them. A national survey on the psychomotor development of children under 6 years of age was carried out with the help of 129 paediatricians. Logistic regression was applied to a final sample of 3573 healthy, normal children in order to estimate selected centiles (25th, 50th, 75th and 90th), together with their respective confidence intervals, of the ages of attainment of 78 developmental items belonging to the following areas: personal-social (18 items), fine motor (19), language (18) and gross motor (23). The 50th centile obtained for each of the 43 comparable items was compared with those obtained in previously standardised tests: DDST, Denver II, Bayley and Chilean scales. Neither significant nor systematic differences were found between our results and those described in the tests used for comparison. Multiple logistic regressions showed that social class, maternal education and sex (female) were associated with earlier attainment of some selected developmental items, achieved at ages later than 1 year. Selected items achieved before the first year of life were not affected by any of the independent environmental variables studied. The information is useful in helping paediatricians in their daily practice for surveillance of development, as baseline information for epidemiological studies on development in our country and for cross-cultural analysis.

  6. Gross Motor Development in Children Aged 3-5 Years, United States 2012.

    PubMed

    Kit, Brian K; Akinbami, Lara J; Isfahani, Neda Sarafrazi; Ulrich, Dale A

    2017-02-14

    Objective Gross motor development in early childhood is important in fostering greater interaction with the environment. The purpose of this study is to describe gross motor skills among US children aged 3-5 years using the Test of Gross Motor Development (TGMD-2). Methods We used 2012 NHANES National Youth Fitness Survey (NNYFS) data, which included TGMD-2 scores obtained according to an established protocol. Outcome measures included locomotor and object control raw and age-standardized scores. Means and standard errors were calculated for demographic and weight status with SUDAAN using sample weights to calculate nationally representative estimates, and survey design variables to account for the complex sampling methods. Results The sample included 339 children aged 3-5 years. As expected, locomotor and object control raw scores increased with age. Overall mean standardized scores for locomotor and object control were similar to the mean value previously determined using a normative sample. Girls had a higher mean locomotor, but not mean object control, standardized score than boys (p < 0.05). However, the mean locomotor standardized scores for both boys and girls fell into the range categorized as "average." There were no other differences by age, race/Hispanic origin, weight status, or income in either of the subtest standardized scores (p > 0.05). Conclusions In a nationally representative sample of US children aged 3-5 years, TGMD-2 mean locomotor and object control standardized scores were similar to the established mean. These results suggest that standardized gross motor development among young children generally did not differ by demographic or weight status.

  7. Separable Sustained and Selective Attention Factors Are Apparent in 5-Year-Old Children

    PubMed Central

    Underbjerg, Mette; George, Melanie S.; Thorsen, Poul; Kesmodel, Ulrik S.; Mortensen, Erik L.; Manly, Tom

    2013-01-01

    In adults and older children, evidence consistent with relative separation between selective and sustained attention, superimposed upon generally positive inter-test correlations, has been reported. Here we examine whether this pattern is detectable in 5-year-old children from the healthy population. A new test battery (TEA-ChJ) was adapted from measures previously used with adults and older children and administered to 172 5-year-olds. Test-retest reliability was assessed in 60 children. Ninety-eight percent of the children managed to complete all measures. Discrimination of visual and auditory stimuli were good. In a factor analysis, the two TEA-ChJ selective attention tasks (one visual, one auditory) loaded onto a common factor and diverged from the two sustained attention tasks (one auditory, one motor), which shared a common loading on the second factor. This pattern, which suggests that the tests are indeed sensitive to underlying attentional capacities, was supported by the relationships between the TEA-ChJ factors and Test of Everyday Attention for Children subtests in the older children in the sample. It is possible to gain convincing performance-based estimates of attention at the age of 5 with the results reflecting a similar factor structure to that obtained in older children and adults. The results are discussed in light of contemporary models of attention function. Given the potential advantages of early intervention for attention difficulties, the findings are of clinical as well as theoretical interest. PMID:24376591

  8. Separable sustained and selective attention factors are apparent in 5-year-old children.

    PubMed

    Underbjerg, Mette; George, Melanie S; Thorsen, Poul; Kesmodel, Ulrik S; Mortensen, Erik L; Manly, Tom

    2013-01-01

    In adults and older children, evidence consistent with relative separation between selective and sustained attention, superimposed upon generally positive inter-test correlations, has been reported. Here we examine whether this pattern is detectable in 5-year-old children from the healthy population. A new test battery (TEA-Ch(J)) was adapted from measures previously used with adults and older children and administered to 172 5-year-olds. Test-retest reliability was assessed in 60 children. Ninety-eight percent of the children managed to complete all measures. Discrimination of visual and auditory stimuli were good. In a factor analysis, the two TEA-Ch(J) selective attention tasks (one visual, one auditory) loaded onto a common factor and diverged from the two sustained attention tasks (one auditory, one motor), which shared a common loading on the second factor. This pattern, which suggests that the tests are indeed sensitive to underlying attentional capacities, was supported by the relationships between the TEA-Ch(J) factors and Test of Everyday Attention for Children subtests in the older children in the sample. It is possible to gain convincing performance-based estimates of attention at the age of 5 with the results reflecting a similar factor structure to that obtained in older children and adults. The results are discussed in light of contemporary models of attention function. Given the potential advantages of early intervention for attention difficulties, the findings are of clinical as well as theoretical interest.

  9. A 5-year follow-up study on one-stage implants inserted concomitantly with localized alveolar ridge augmentation.

    PubMed

    Juodzbalys, G; Raustia, A M; Kubilius, R

    2007-10-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the success of one-stage implants placed at the time of alveolar bone augmentation using simultaneous guided bone regeneration technique with a collagen barrier membrane in patients suffering from insufficient bone width. Seventeen patients were treated with 20 one-stage OSTEOFIX (Oulu, Finland) implants using simultaneous guided bone regeneration technique. Dehiscence defects were filled by bovine bone mineral Bio-Oss and covered with collagen membrane. Clinical and radiographic parameters of the peri-implant conditions were assessed at the moment of prosthesis placement and at 1- and 5-year follow-ups. Diagnostic dehiscence defect measurements after implant placement showed that the mean vertical defect varied from 3.8 mm to 10.0 mm. At the moment of prosthesis placement and at 1- and 5-year follow-ups all implants were stable, painless and without biological complications. Clinical and radiographic parameters of the peri-implant conditions remained stable during follow-up. The cumulative implant survival rate was 100% after the 5-year observation period and the success rate for all pooled implants was 90%. The present study showed predictable treatment outcomes recorded after 5 years of function for one-stage OSTEOFIX (Oulu, Finland) oral implants placed simultaneously with guided bone regeneration using collagen membrane and deproteinized bovine bone mineral.

  10. Nomogram for preoperative estimation of long-term survival of patients who underwent curative resection with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage A1

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Hui; Wu, Dong-Hao; Chen, Jie; Dong, Min; Lin, Qu; Wu, Xiang-Yuan; Li, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims This retrospective cohort study developed a prognostic nomogram to predict the survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients diagnosed as beyond Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage A1 after resection and evaluated the possibility of using the nomogram as a treatment algorithm reference. Results The predictors included in the nomogram were total tumour volume, Child-Turcotte-Pugh class, plasma fibrinogen and portal vein tumour thrombus. Patients diagnosed as beyond A1 were stratified into low-, medium- and high-risk groups using nomogram scores of 0 and 51 with the total points of 225. Patients within A1 exhibited similar recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) rates compared with the low-risk group. Patients in the medium-risk group exhibited a similar OS but a worse RFS rates compared with patients within A1. The high-risk group was associated with worse RFS and OS rates compared with the patients within A1 (3-year RFS rates, 27.0% vs. 60.3%, P < 0.001; 3-year OS rates, 49.2% vs. 83.1%, P < 0.001). Methods A total of 352 HCC patients undergoing curative resection from September 2003 to December 2012 were included to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival after resection. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were used to identify prognostic factors. A visually orientated nomogram was constructed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Conclusions This user-friendly nomogram offers an individualized preoperative recurrence risk estimation and stratification for HCC patients beyond A1 undergoing resection. Resection should be considered the first-line treatment for low-risk patients. PMID:27542216

  11. Long term Survival with CTLA-4 blockade Using Tremelimumab

    PubMed Central

    Eroglu, Zeynep; Kim, Dae Won; Wang, Xiaoyan; Camacho, Luis H.; Chmielowski, Bartosz; Seja, Elizabeth; Villanueva, Arturo; Ruchalski, Kathleen; Glaspy, John A.; Kim, Kevin B.; Hwu, Wen-Jen; Ribas, Antoni

    2016-01-01

    Purpose One of the hallmarks of cancer immunotherapy is the long duration of responses, evident with cytokines like interleukin-2 or a variety of cancer vaccines. However, there is limited information available on very long term outcomes of patients treated with anti-CTLA-4 antibodies. Tremelimumab is an anti-CTLA-4 antibody of Ig G2 istoype initially tested in patients with advanced melanoma over 12 years ago. Methods We reviewed the outcomes of patients with advanced melanoma enrolled in four phase 1 and 2 tremelimumab trials at two sites to determine response rates and long-term survival. Results A total of 143 patients were enrolled at two institutions from 2002 to 2008. Tremelimumab administration varied between a single dose of 0.01 mg/kg and 15 mg/kg every 3 months. Median overall survival was 13 months (95% CI, 10–16.6), ranging from less than a month to 12+ years. An objective response rate of 15.6% was observed, with median duration of response of 6.5 years, range of 3 to 136+ months. The Kaplan-Meier estimated 5 year survival rate was 20% (95% CI, 13–26%), with 10 and 12.5 year survival rates of 16% (95% CI, 9–23%). Conclusions CTLA-4 blockade with tremelimumab can lead to very long duration of objective anti-tumor responses beyond 12 years. PMID:26364516

  12. Estimates of direct and indirect effects for early juvenile survival in captive populations maintained for conservation purposes: the case of Cuvier's gazelle.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Belén; Cervantes, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Juan P; Goyache, Félix; Moreno, Eulalia

    2014-11-01

    Together with the avoidance of any negative impact of inbreeding, preservation of genetic variability for life-history traits that could undergo future selective pressure is a major issue in endangered species management programmes. However, most of these programmes ignore that, apart from the direct action of genes on such traits, parents, as contributors of offspring environment, can influence offspring performance through indirect parental effects (when parental genotype and phenotype exerts environmental influences on offspring phenotype independently of additive genetic effects). Using quantitative genetic models, we estimated the additive genetic variance for juvenile survival in a population of the endangered Cuvier's gazelle kept in captivity since 1975. The dataset analyzed included performance recording for 700 calves and a total pedigree of 740 individuals. Results indicated that in this population juvenile survival harbors significant additive genetic variance. The estimates of heritability obtained were in general moderate (0.115-0.457) and not affected by the inclusion of inbreeding in the models. Maternal genetic contribution to juvenile survival seems to be of major importance in this gazelle's population as well. Indirect genetic and indirect environmental effects assigned to mothers (i.e., maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects) roughly explain a quarter of the total variance estimated for the trait analyzed. These findings have major evolutionary consequences for the species as show that offspring phenotypes can evolve strictly through changes in the environment provided by mothers. They are also relevant for the captive breeding programme of the species. To take into account, the contribution that mothers have on offspring phenotype through indirect genetic effects when designing pairing strategies might serve to identify those females with better ability to recruit, and, additionally, to predict reliable responses to

  13. Estimates of direct and indirect effects for early juvenile survival in captive populations maintained for conservation purposes: the case of Cuvier's gazelle

    PubMed Central

    Ibáñez, Belén; Cervantes, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Juan P; Goyache, Félix; Moreno, Eulalia

    2014-01-01

    Together with the avoidance of any negative impact of inbreeding, preservation of genetic variability for life-history traits that could undergo future selective pressure is a major issue in endangered species management programmes. However, most of these programmes ignore that, apart from the direct action of genes on such traits, parents, as contributors of offspring environment, can influence offspring performance through indirect parental effects (when parental genotype and phenotype exerts environmental influences on offspring phenotype independently of additive genetic effects). Using quantitative genetic models, we estimated the additive genetic variance for juvenile survival in a population of the endangered Cuvier's gazelle kept in captivity since 1975. The dataset analyzed included performance recording for 700 calves and a total pedigree of 740 individuals. Results indicated that in this population juvenile survival harbors significant additive genetic variance. The estimates of heritability obtained were in general moderate (0.115–0.457) and not affected by the inclusion of inbreeding in the models. Maternal genetic contribution to juvenile survival seems to be of major importance in this gazelle's population as well. Indirect genetic and indirect environmental effects assigned to mothers (i.e., maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects) roughly explain a quarter of the total variance estimated for the trait analyzed. These findings have major evolutionary consequences for the species as show that offspring phenotypes can evolve strictly through changes in the environment provided by mothers. They are also relevant for the captive breeding programme of the species. To take into account, the contribution that mothers have on offspring phenotype through indirect genetic effects when designing pairing strategies might serve to identify those females with better ability to recruit, and, additionally, to predict reliable responses to

  14. Methodological issues in estimating survival in patients with multiple primary cancers: an application to women with breast cancer as a first tumour

    PubMed Central

    Rosso, Stefano; Ricceri, Fulvio; Terracini, Lea; Zanetti, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    Background Comparing survival of patients with a single tumour and patients with multiple primaries poses different methodological problems. In population based studies, where we cannot rely on detailed clinical information, the issue is disentangling the share of survival probability from the first and second cancer, and their compounded effect. We examined three hypotheses: A) the survival probability since the first tumour does not change with the occurrence of a second tumour; B) the probability of surviving a tumour does not change with the presence of a previous primary; C) the probabilities of surviving two subsequent primary tumours are independent (additivity hypothesis on mortality rates). Methods We studied the survival probabilities modelling mortality rates according to hypotheses A), B) and C). Mortality rates were calculated using Aalen-Johansen estimators which allowed to discount for the lag-time survival before developing a second tumour. We applied this approach to a cohort of 436 women with breast cancer (BC) and a subsequent tumour in the resident population of Turin, Italy, between 1985 and 2002. Results We presented our results in term of a Standardised Mortality Ratio calculated (SMRAJ) after 10 years of follow-up. For hypothesis A we observed a significant excess mortality of 2.21 (95% C.I. 1.94 – 2.45). Concerning hypothesis B we found a not significant SMRAJ of 0.98 (95% C.I. 0.87 – 1.10). The additivity hypothesis (C) was not confirmed as it overestimated the risk of death, in fact SMRsAJ were all below 1: 0.75 (95% C.I. 0.66 – 0.84) for BC and all subsequent cancers, 0.72 (95% C.I. 0.55 – 0.94) for BC and colon-rectum cancer, 0.76 (95% C.I. 0.48 – 1.14) for BC and corpus uteri cancer (not significant). Conclusion This method proved to be useful in disentangling the effect of different subsequent cancers on mortality. In our application it shows a worse long-term mortality for women with two cancers than that with BC only

  15. Surgical treatment of cardiac tumors: a 5-year experience from a single cardiac center

    PubMed Central

    Yin, Liang; He, Dengke; Shen, Hua; Ling, Xinyu; Li, Wei; Xue, Qian

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiac tumors are rare but manifested with various clinical presentations and often cause unexpected symptoms or sudden death. The objective is to review the clinical presentation, histopathological spectrum, mortality and follow-up data of patients with cardiac tumors following surgery treatment over a period of 5 years. Methods We retrospectively collected the medical records of all patients diagnosed of cardiac tumors in the period between January 2008 and December 2013 at the cardiac center of our university. Clinical histories, perioperative data, surgical findings, efficacy and follow-up data were reviewed in our study. Patients were divided into two groups according to site distribution of the tumors in the heart. Results A total of 131 patients underwent surgical treatment of cardiac tumors were enrolled in this study, with a mean age of 51.39±16.37. The result of analysis showed that 79.47% (n=104) of the primary intracardiac tumors were benign, while primary malignant neoplasms accounted for 16.03% (n=21) of all patients, with the remainder (n=6, 4.6%) metastatic tumors transferred from other organs. Among all patients there were 2 in-hospital deaths and the survival rate in all patients at 1-year, 3-year and 5-year follow up was 83.20%, 78.62% and 66.41% respectively. Both patients with tumors in the left and right heart had similar basic characteristics except sex gender (P=0.002), BSA (P=0.045) and weight (P=0.033). Compared with patients with tumors in the right heart, patients with tumors in the left heart had significant higher CPB time (P<0.001), cross clamp time (P<0.001) and time of mechanical ventilation (P<0.001), and they also had longer ICU stay (P<0.001) but not total hospital stay (P=0.434). Conclusions Surgical resection represents an effective protocol in treating cardiac tumors. Data in our study of cardiac tumors on frequency and allocation were consistent with previous reports which may provide useful clinical evidence on

  16. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XXI; A Summary of Methods for Conducting Salmonid Fry Mark-Recapture Studies for Estimating Survival in Tributaries, Technical Report 2005-2006.

    SciTech Connect

    Skalski, John

    2007-02-01

    Productivity and early fry survival can have a major influence on the dynamics of fish stocks. To investigate the early life history of fish, numerous methods have been developed or adapted to these much smaller fish. Some of the marking techniques provide individual identification; many others, only class identification. Some of the tagging techniques require destructive sampling to identify a mark; other methods permit benign examination and rerelease of captured fish. Sixteen alternative release-recapture designs for conducting fry survival investigations were examined. Eleven approaches were found capable of estimating survival parameters; five were not. Of those methods capable of estimating fry survival, five required unique marks, four required batch-specific marks, and two approaches required remarking and rereleasing captured fry. No approach based on a simple batch mark was capable of statistically estimating survival.

  17. Partial Breast Radiation Therapy With Proton Beam: 5-Year Results With Cosmetic Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Bush, David A.; Do, Sharon; Lum, Sharon; Garberoglio, Carlos; Mirshahidi, Hamid; Patyal, Baldev; Grove, Roger; Slater, Jerry D.

    2014-11-01

    Purpose: We updated our previous report of a phase 2 trial using proton beam radiation therapy to deliver partial breast irradiation (PBI) in patients with early stage breast cancer. Methods and Materials: Eligible subjects had invasive nonlobular carcinoma with a maximal dimension of 3 cm. Patients underwent partial mastectomy with negative margins; axillary lymph nodes were negative on sampling. Subjects received postoperative proton beam radiation therapy to the surgical bed. The dose delivered was 40 Gy in 10 fractions, once daily over 2 weeks. Multiple fields were treated daily, and skin-sparing techniques were used. Following treatment, patients were evaluated with clinical assessments and annual mammograms to monitor toxicity, tumor recurrence, and cosmesis. Results: One hundred subjects were enrolled and treated. All patients completed the assigned treatment and were available for post-treatment analysis. The median follow-up was 60 months. Patients had a mean age of 63 years; 90% had ductal histology; the average tumor size was 1.3 cm. Actuarial data at 5 years included ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence-free survival of 97% (95% confidence interval: 100%-93%); disease-free survival of 94%; and overall survival of 95%. There were no cases of grade 3 or higher acute skin reactions, and late skin reactions included 7 cases of grade 1 telangiectasia. Patient- and physician-reported cosmesis was good to excellent in 90% of responses, was not changed from baseline measurements, and was well maintained throughout the entire 5-year follow-up period. Conclusions: Proton beam radiation therapy for PBI produced excellent ipsilateral breast recurrence-free survival with minimal toxicity. The treatment proved to be adaptable to all breast sizes and lumpectomy cavity configurations. Cosmetic results appear to be excellent and unchanged from baseline out to 5 years following treatment. Cosmetic results may be improved over those reported with photon

  18. Survival rate of breast cancer patients in Malaysia: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Nor Aini; Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Muhammad, Nor Asiah; Ali, Zainudin Mohamad; Ibrahim, Lailanor; Ibrahim Tamim, Nor Saleha; Mustafa, Amal Nasir; Kamaluddin, Muhammad Amir

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. Other than hospital-based results, there are no documented population-based survival rates of Malaysian women for breast cancers. This population- based retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted. Data were obtained from Health Informatics Centre, Ministry of Health Malaysia, National Cancer Registry and National Registration Department for the period from 1st Jan 2000 to 31st December 2005. Cases were captured by ICD-10 and linked to death certificates to identify the status. Only complete data were analysed. Survival time was calculated from the estimated date of diagnosis to the date of death or date of loss to follow-up. Observed survival rates were estimated by Kaplan- Meier method using SPSS Statistical Software version 17. A total of 10,230 complete data sets were analysed. The mean age at diagnosis was 50.6 years old. The overall 5-year survival rate was 49% with median survival time of 68.1 months. Indian women had a higher survival rate of 54% compared to Chinese women (49%) and Malays (45%). The overall 5-year survival rate of breast cancer patient among Malaysian women was still low for the cohort of 2000 to 2005 as compared to survival rates in developed nations. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the strategies for early detection and intervention.

  19. First estimates of the probability of survival in a small-bodied, high-elevation frog (Boreal Chorus Frog, Pseudacris maculata), or how historical data can be useful

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, R. D.; Amburgey, S. M.; Matthews, T.; Spencer, A. W.; Corn, P.S.

    2016-01-01

    In an era of shrinking budgets yet increasing demands for conservation, the value of existing (i.e., historical) data are elevated. Lengthy time series on common, or previously common, species are particularly valuable and may be available only through the use of historical information. We provide first estimates of the probability of survival and longevity (0.67–0.79 and 5–7 years, respectively) for a subalpine population of a small-bodied, ostensibly common amphibian, the Boreal Chorus Frog (Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)), using historical data and contemporary, hypothesis-driven information–theoretic analyses. We also test a priori hypotheses about the effects of color morph (as suggested by early reports) and of drought (as suggested by recent climate predictions) on survival. Using robust mark–recapture models, we find some support for early hypotheses regarding the effect of color on survival, but we find no effect of drought. The congruence between early findings and our analyses highlights the usefulness of historical information in providing raw data for contemporary analyses and context for conservation and management decisions.

  20. Total Ankle Replacement Survival Rates Based on Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis of National Joint Registry Data.

    PubMed

    Bartel, Annette F P; Roukis, Thomas S

    2015-10-01

    National joint registry data provides unique information about primary total ankle replacement (TAR) survival. We sought to recreate survival curves among published national joint registry data sets using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Overall, 5152 primary and 591 TAR revisions were included over a 2- to 13-year period with prosthesis survival for all national joint registries of 0.94 at 2-years, 0.87 at 5-years and 0.81 at 10-years. National joint registry datasets should strive for completion of data presentation including revision definitions, modes and time of failure, and patients lost to follow-up or death for complete accuracy of the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

  1. A case of primary spinal atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor in a 5-year-old child

    PubMed Central

    Mankotia, Dipanker Singh; Tandon, Vivek; Sharma, Bhawani Shankar; Rajeshwari, Madhu; Sharma, Mehar Chand

    2016-01-01

    Atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor (AT/RT) is a rare central nervous system neoplasm affecting children, and isolated primary spinal involvement is extremely rare. Authors describe a case of spinal AT/RT in a 5-year-old male child presenting with rapidly progressing quadriparesis diagnosed and managed surgically and medically. Biopsy revealed large, rhabdoid cells with prominent nucleoli in nest and immunohistochemistry further showed loss of integrase integrator 1 expression considered to be gold standard for diagnosis. AT/RT has extremely poor prognosis with median survival being 6 months. PMID:27606020

  2. A semiparametrically efficient estimator of the time-varying effects for survival data with time-dependent treatment.

    PubMed

    Lin, Huazhen; Fei, Zhe; Li, Yi

    2016-09-01

    The timing of a time-dependent treatment-e.g., when to perform a kidney transplantation-is an important factor for evaluating treatment efficacy. A naïve comparison between the treated and untreated groups, while ignoring the timing of treatment, typically yields biased results that might favor the treated group because only patients who survive long enough will get treated. On the other hand, studying the effect of a time-dependent treatment is often complex, as it involves modeling treatment history and accounting for the possible time-varying nature of the treatment effect. We propose a varying-coefficient Cox model that investigates the efficacy of a time-dependent treatment by utilizing a global partial likelihood, which renders appealing statistical properties, including consistency, asymptotic normality and semiparametric efficiency. Extensive simulations verify the finite sample performance, and we apply the proposed method to study the efficacy of kidney transplantation for end-stage renal disease patients in the U.S. Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR).

  3. Snoring, sleep disturbance, and behaviour in 4-5 year olds.

    PubMed Central

    Ali, N J; Pitson, D J; Stradling, J R

    1993-01-01

    Parents of 996 children aged 4-5 years identified consecutively from the Oxford health visitor register were asked to complete a questionnaire about breathing disorders during sleep. A total of 782 (78.5%) was returned. Ninety five (12.1%) children were reported to snore on most nights. Habitual snoring was significantly associated with daytime sleepiness, restless sleep, and hyperactivity. The questionnaire responses were used to select two subgroups, one at high risk of a sleep and breathing disorder and a control group. These children (132 in total) were monitored at home with overnight video recording and oximetry, and had formal behavioural assessment using the Conners scale. Seven (7/66) children from the high risk group and none from the control group had obvious sleep disturbance consequent on snoring and upper airway obstruction. Thus our estimate of the prevalence of sleep and breathing disorders in this age group is 7/996 or 0.7%. The high risk group had significantly higher nocturnal movement, oxygen saturation dip rates, and overnight pulse rates than the controls. Maternal but not paternal smoking was associated with the high risk group. Parents and teachers thought those in the high risk group were more hyperactive and inattentive than the controls, but only their parents thought them more aggressive. Significant sleep and breathing disorders occur in about 0.7% of 4-5 year olds. Children whose parents report snoring and sleep disturbance have objective evidence of sleep disruption and show more behaviour problems than controls. PMID:8280201

  4. Surgical Treatment for Adult Spinal Deformity: Projected Cost Effectiveness at 5-Year Follow-Up

    PubMed Central

    Terran, Jamie; McHugh, Brian J.; Fischer, Charla R.; Lonner, Baron; Warren, Daniel; Glassman, Steven; Bridwell, Keith; Schwab, Frank; Lafage, Virginie

    2014-01-01

    Background In the United States, expenditures related to spine care are estimated to account for $86 billion annually. Policy makers have set a cost-effectiveness benchmark of less than $100,000/quality adjusted life year (QALY), forcing surgeons to defend their choices economically. This study projects the cost/QALY for surgical treatment of adult spinal deformity at 5-year follow-up based on 2-year cost- and health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) data. Methods In a review of 541 patients with adult spinal deformity, the patients who underwent revision or were likely to undergo revision were identified and cost of surgery was doubled to account for the second procedure; all other patients maintained the cost of the initial surgery. Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) was modeled by revision status based on literature findings. Total surgical cost was based on Medicare reimbursement. Chi square and student t tests were utilized to compare cost-effective and non–cost-effective patients. Results The average cost/QALY at 5-year follow-up was $120,311.73. A total of 40.7% of patients fell under the threshold of a cost/QALY <$100,000. Cost-effective patients had higher baseline ODI scores (45% vs 34% [P=0.001]), lower baseline total Scoliosis Research Society scores (2.89 vs 3.00 [P=0.04]), and shorter fusions (8.23 vs 9.87 [P=0.0001]). Conclusion We found 40.7% of patients to be below the threshold of cost effectiveness. Factors associated with reaching the threshold <$100,000/QALY were greater preoperative disability, diagnosis of idiopathic scoliosis, poor preoperative HRQOL scores, and fewer fusion levels. PMID:24688328

  5. Configuring Balanced Scorecards for Measuring Health System Performance: Evidence from 5 Years' Evaluation in Afghanistan

    PubMed Central

    Edward, Anbrasi; Kumar, Binay; Kakar, Faizullah; Salehi, Ahmad Shah; Burnham, Gilbert; Peters, David H.

    2011-01-01

    Background In 2004, Afghanistan pioneered a balanced scorecard (BSC) performance system to manage the delivery of primary health care services. This study examines the trends of 29 key performance indicators over a 5-year period between 2004 and 2008. Methods and Findings Independent evaluations of performance in six domains were conducted annually through 5,500 patient observations and exit interviews and 1,500 provider interviews in >600 facilities selected by stratified random sampling in each province. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were used to assess trends in BSC parameters. There was a progressive improvement in the national median scores scaled from 0–100 between 2004 and 2008 in all six domains: patient and community satisfaction of services (65.3–84.5, p<0.0001); provider satisfaction (65.4–79.2, p<0.01); capacity for service provision (47.4–76.4, p<0.0001); quality of services (40.5–67.4, p<0.0001); and overall vision for pro-poor and pro-female health services (52.0–52.6). The financial domain also showed improvement until 2007 (84.4–95.7, p<0.01), after which user fees were eliminated. By 2008, all provinces achieved the upper benchmark of national median set in 2004. Conclusions The BSC has been successfully employed to assess and improve health service capacity and service delivery using performance benchmarking during the 5-year period. However, scorecard reconfigurations are needed to integrate effectiveness and efficiency measures and accommodate changes in health systems policy and strategy architecture to ensure its continued relevance and effectiveness as a comprehensive health system performance measure. The process of BSC design and implementation can serve as a valuable prototype for health policy planners managing performance in similar health care contexts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21814499

  6. Combined analysis of eIF4E and 4E-binding protein expression predicts breast cancer survival and estimates eIF4E activity.

    PubMed

    Coleman, L J; Peter, M B; Teall, T J; Brannan, R A; Hanby, A M; Honarpisheh, H; Shaaban, A M; Smith, L; Speirs, V; Verghese, E T; McElwaine, J N; Hughes, T A

    2009-05-05

    Increased eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4E (eIF4E) expression occurs in many cancers, and makes fundamental contributions to carcinogenesis by stimulating the expression of cancer-related genes at post-transcriptional levels. This key role is highlighted by the facts that eIF4E levels can predict prognosis, and that eIF4E is an established therapeutic target. However, eIF4E activity is a complex function of expression levels and phosphorylation statuses of eIF4E and eIF4E-binding proteins (4E-BPs). Our hypothesis was that the combined analyses of these pathway components would allow insights into eIF4E activity and its influence on cancer. We have determined expression levels of eIF4E, 4E-BP1, 4E-BP2 and phosphorylated 4E-BP1 within 424 breast tumours, and have carried out analyses to combine these and relate the product to patient survival, in order to estimate eIF4E activity. We show that this analysis gives greater prognostic insights than that of eIF4E alone. We show that eIF4E and 4E-BP expression are positively associated, and that 4E-BP2 has a stronger influence on cancer behaviour than 4E-BP1. Finally, we examine eIF4E, estimated eIF4E activity, and phosphorylated 4E-BP1 as potential predictive biomarkers for eIF4E-targeted therapies, and show that each determines selection of different patient groups. We conclude that eIF4E's influence on cancer survival is modulated substantially by 4E-BPs, and that combined pathway analyses can estimate functional eIF4E.

  7. Municipal solid waste management in Tehran: Changes during the last 5 years.

    PubMed

    Malmir, Tahereh; Tojo, Yasumasa

    2016-05-01

    The situation of waste management in Tehran was a typical example of it in developing countries. The amount of municipal solid waste has been increasing and the city has depended on landfill for municipal solid waste management. However, in recent years, various measures have been taken by the city, such as collecting recyclables at the source and increasing the capacity of waste-processing facilities. As a result, significant changes in the waste stream are starting to occur. This study investigated the nature of, and reasons for, the marked changes in the waste stream from 2008 to 2012 by analysing the municipal solid waste statistics published by the Tehran Waste Management Organization in 2013 and survey data on the physical composition of the municipal solid waste. The following trends were identified: Although the generation of municipal solid waste increased by 10% during the 5-year period, the amount of waste directly disposed of to landfill halved and resource recovery almost doubled. An increase in the capacity of a waste-processing facility contributed significantly to these changes. The biodegradable fraction going to landfill was estimated by using the quantity and the composition of each input to the landfill. The estimated result in 2012 decreased to 49% of its value in 2008.

  8. Reproduction, preweaning survival, and survival of adult sea otters at Kodiak Island, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, Daniel H.; DeGange, Anthony R.

    1995-01-01

    Radiotelemetry methods were used to examine the demographic characteristics of sea otters inhabiting the leading edge of an expanding population on Kodiak Island, Alaska. Fifteen male and 30 female sea otters were instrumented and followed from 1986 to 1990. Twenty-one percent of females were sexually mature (had pupped) at age 2, 57% by age 3, 88% by age 4, and 100% by age 5. Fifteen females produced 26 pups, an overall reproduction rate of 94% for mature females. The reproduction rate was 17, 45, 66, and 100% for 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds, respectively. Eighty-five percent of observed pups survived to weaning (120 days), and the percentage of pups weaned ranged from 34% for pups of 2-year-olds to 100% for pups of 5-year-olds. At least three of four known pup losses occurred within a month of parturition. The mean pup dependency period for weaned pups was 153 days and the mean gestation period was 218 days. No synchrony in pupping activity was observed. Mean annual survival of adults was high. Estimates of survival ranged from 89 to 96% for females and 86 to 91% for males. Human harvest was the primary source of known mortality of adults. Our estimates of reproductive rates and survival of adults are at the high end of those reported for sea otters, but preweaning survival stands out as being particularly high. Abundant food resources and the availability of protected water presumably contributed to the high reproductive success observed in this recently established sea otter population.

  9. Recent cancer survival in Germany: an analysis of common and less common cancers.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Lina; Castro, Felipe A; Gondos, Adam; Krilaviciute, Agne; Barnes, Benjamin; Eberle, Andrea; Emrich, Katharina; Hentschel, Stefan; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Brenner, Hermann

    2015-06-01

    The monitoring of cancer survival by population-based cancer registries is a prerequisite to evaluate the current quality of cancer care. Our study provides 1-, 5- and 10-year relative survival as well as 5-year relative survival conditional on 1-year survival estimates and recent survival trends for Germany using data from 11 population-based cancer registries, covering around one-third of the German population. Period analysis was used to estimate relative survival for 24 common and 11 less common cancer sites for the period 2007-2010. The German and the United States survival estimates were compared using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 13 database. Trends in cancer survival in Germany between 2002-2004 and 2008-2010 were described. Five-year relative survival increased in Germany from 2002-2004 to 2008-2010 for most cancer sites. Among the 24 most common cancers, largest improvements were seen for multiple myeloma (8.0% units), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (6.2% units), prostate cancer (5.2% units) and colorectal cancer (4.6% units). In 2007-2010, the survival disadvantage in Germany compared to the United States was largest for cancers of the mouth/pharynx (-11.0% units), thyroid (-6.8% units) and prostate (-7.5% units). Although survival estimates were much lower for elderly patients in both countries, differences in age patterns were observed for some cancer sites. The reported improvements in cancer survival might reflect advances in the quality of cancer care on the population level as well as increased use of screening in Germany. The survival differences across countries and the survival disadvantage in the elderly require further investigation.

  10. Calcium supplementation and the risks of atherosclerotic vascular disease in older women: results of a 5-year RCT and a 4.5-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Joshua R; Calver, Janine; Zhu, Kun; Flicker, Leon; Prince, Richard L

    2011-01-01

    Concern has been expressed that calcium supplementation, a key intervention for preventing osteoporotic fracture in older women, may increase the risk of atherosclerotic vascular disease. To evaluate the risk further, an examination of complete verified atherosclerotic vascular hospitalization and mortality data from a 5-year randomized, controlled trial (RCT) of calcium carbonate and 4.5 years of posttrial follow-up was undertaken. This study used data from a published 5-year randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial [Calcium Intake Fracture Outcome Study (CAIFOS)]. The participants were 1460 women aged 75.1 ± 2.7 years at baseline (1998) recruited from the general population and randomized to receive 1200 mg of calcium carbonate daily or an identical placebo. All hospital admission and deaths during the 5-year study and the 4.5-year follow-up were derived from the Western Australian Data Linkage Service (WADLS). Hazard ratios (HRs) for the combined endpoint of atherosclerotic vascular mortality or first hospitalization were calculated using prespecified intention-to-treat and per-protocol models. The intervention group that received calcium supplementation did not have a higher risk of death or first-time hospitalization from atherosclerotic vascular disease in either the 5-year RCT [multivariate-adjusted HR = 0.938, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.690-1.275] or during the 9.5 years of observational study (multivariate-adjusted HR = 0.919, 95% CI 0.737-1.146). Further analysis suggested that calcium supplementation may reduce the risk of hospitalization and mortality in patients with preexisting atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. This trial provides compelling evidence that calcium supplementation of 1200 mg daily does not significantly increase the risk of atherosclerotic vascular disease in elderly women.

  11. A New Harmonized Approach to Estimate Busulfan Exposure Predicts Survival and Toxicity after Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Children and Young Adults: a Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Bartelink, I.H.; Lalmohamed, Arief; van Reij, Elisabeth M.L.; Dvorak, Chris C.; Savic, Rada M.; Zwaveling, Juliette; Bredius, Robbert. G.M.; Egberts, Antoine C.G.; Bierings, M.; Kletzel, M.; Shaw, Peter J.; Nath, Christa E.; Hempel, George; Ansari, M.; Krajinovic, M.; Theoret, Yves; Duval, Michel; Keizer, Ron J.; Bittencourt, Henriette; Hassan, Moustapha; Güngör, Tayfun; Wynn, Robert F.; Veys, Paul; Cuvelier, Geoff D.E.; Marktel, Sarah; Chiesa, Robert; Cowan, Morton J.; Slatter, Mary A.; Stricherz, Melisa K.; Jennissen, Cathryn; Long-Boyle, Janel R.; Boelens, Jaap Jan

    2016-01-01

    Background Intravenous-busulfan (IV-busulfan) combined with therapeutic drug monitoring to guide dosing improves outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT). The best method to estimate busulfan exposure and the optimal exposure in children/young adults remains unclear. We therefore evaluated three approaches to estimate IV-Bu exposure (expressed as cumulative-area-under-the-curve; AUC) and associated busulfan-AUC with clinical outcomes in children/young adults undergoing allo-HCT. Methods In this retrospective analysis, patients (0.1–30.4 years) receiving busulfan-based conditioning regimen from 15 centers were included. Cumulative AUC was calculated by numerical integration using non-linear mixed effect modeling (AUCNONMEM), non-compartmental analysis (AUC0-infinity and AUC to the end of the dose interval AUC0-tau) and by individual centers using a variety of approaches (AUCcenter). Main outcome of interest was event-free survival (EFS). Other outcomes of interest were overall survival, graft-failure, relapse, transplantation related mortality (TRM), acute toxicity (veno-occlusive disease (VOD) and/or acute graft versus-host disease (aGvHD), chronic GvHD (cGvHD) and cGVHD-free event-free survival (GEFS). Propensity score adjusted cox proportional hazard models, Weibull models, and Fine-Gray competing risk regressions were used. Results 674 patients were included (41% malignant, 59% non-malignant) Estimated 2-year EFS was 69.7%. The median busulfan AUCNONMEM was 74.4 mg*h/L (CI95% 31.1–104.6 mg*h/L). The median AUCNONMEM correlated poorly with AUCcenter (R2 = 0.254). Patients with optimal IV-busulfan AUC of 78–101 mg*h/L showed 81% EFS at 2 years compared to 66.1% and 49.5% in the low (<78 mg*h/L) and high (>101 mg*h/L) busulfan AUC group respectively (P=0.011). Graft-failure/relapse occurred more frequently in the low AUC group (HR=1.75 P<0.001). Acute toxicity, cGvHD and TRM was significantly higher in the high AUC group (HR 1

  12. Adult survival and productivity of Northern Fulmars in Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatch, Scott A.

    1987-01-01

    The population dynamics of Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) were studied at the Semidi Islands in the western Gulf of Alaska. Fulmars occurred in a broad range of color phases, and annual survival was estimated from the return of birds in the rarer plumage classes. A raw estimate of mean annual survival over a 5-year period was 0.963, but a removal experiment indicated the raw value was probably biased downward. The estimate of annual survival adjusted accordingly was 0.969. Mortality during the breeding season was less than 10% of the annual total, and postbreeding mortality of failed breeders was three to four times higher than that of successful breeders. Breeding success averaged 41% over 9 years. About 5% of experienced birds failed to breed each year due to physical destruction of their breeding sites, mate-loss, or other causes. An estimated 30% of the birds near the colony in one year were of prebreeding age. A comparison of population parameters in Pacific and Atlantic fulmars indicates that higher survival in the prebreeding years is the likely basis for population growth in the northeastern Atlantic. The correlation of breeding success and survival suggests both parameters may decline with age.

  13. Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

    PubMed Central

    Allemani, Claudia; Weir, Hannah K; Carreira, Helena; Harewood, Rhea; Spika, Devon; Wang, Xiao-Si; Bannon, Finian; Ahn, Jane V; Johnson, Christopher J; Bonaventure, Audrey; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Stiller, Charles; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Chen, Wan-Qing; Ogunbiyi, Olufemi J; Rachet, Bernard; Soeberg, Matthew J; You, Hui; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Bielska-Lasota, Magdalena; Storm, Hans; Tucker, Thomas C; Coleman, Michel P

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. Methods Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15–99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0–14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995–2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. Findings 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005–09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15–19% in North America, and as low as 7–9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10–20% between 1995–99 and 2005–09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer

  14. Reporting errors in siblings' survival histories and their impact on adult mortality estimates: results from a record linkage study in Senegal.

    PubMed

    Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Kanté, Almamy M; Duthé, Géraldine; Andro, Armelle

    2014-04-01

    Estimates of adult mortality in countries with limited vital registration (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) are often derived from information about the survival of a respondent's siblings. We evaluated the completeness and accuracy of such data through a record linkage study conducted in Bandafassi, located in southeastern Senegal. We linked at the individual level retrospective siblings' survival histories (SSH) reported by female respondents (n = 268) to prospective mortality data and genealogies collected through a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Respondents often reported inaccurate lists of siblings. Additions to these lists were uncommon, but omissions were frequent: respondents omitted 3.8 % of their live sisters, 9.1 % of their deceased sisters, and 16.6 % of their sisters who had migrated out of the DSS area. Respondents underestimated the age at death of the siblings they reported during the interview, particularly among siblings who had died at older ages (≥45 years). Restricting SSH data to person-years and events having occurred during a recent reference period reduced list errors but not age and date errors. Overall, SSH data led to a 20 % underestimate of 45 q 15 relative to HDSS data. Our study suggests new quality improvement strategies for SSH data and demonstrates the potential use of HDSS data for the validation of "unconventional" demographic techniques.

  15. Alveolar Ridge Contouring with Free Connective Tissue Graft at Implant Placement: A 5-Year Consecutive Clinical Study.

    PubMed

    Hanser, Thomas; Khoury, Fouad

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluated volume stability after alveolar ridge contouring with free connective tissue grafts at implant placement in single-tooth gaps. A total of 52 single-tooth gaps with labial volume deficiencies in the maxilla (incisors, canines, and premolars) were consecutively treated with implants and concomitant free palatal connective tissue grafts in 46 patients between 2006 and 2009. Implants had to be covered with at least 2 mm peri-implant local bone after insertion. At implant placement, a free connective tissue graft from the palate was fixed inside a labial split-thickness flap to form an existing concave buccal alveolar ridge contour due to tissue volume deficiency into a convex shape. Standardized volumetric measurements of the labial alveolar contour using a template were evaluated before connective tissue grafting and at 2 weeks, 1 year, and 5 years after implantprosthetic incorporation. Tissue volume had increased significantly (P < .05) in all six reference points representing the outer alveolar soft tissue contour of the implant before connective tissue grafting to baseline (2 weeks after implant-prosthetic incorporation). Statistically, 50% of the reference points (P > .05) kept their volume from baseline to 1 year after prosthetic incorporation and from baseline to 5 years after prosthetic incorporation, respectively, whereas reference points located within the area of the implant sulcus showed a significant (P < .05) decrease in volume. Clinically, 5 years after prosthetic incorporation the originally concave buccal alveolar contour was still convex in all implants, leading to a continuous favorable anatomical shape and improved esthetic situation. Intraoral radiographs confirmed osseointegration and stable peri-implant parameters with a survival rate of 100% after a follow-up of approximately 5 years. Implant placement with concomitant free connective tissue grafting appears to be an appropriate long-term means to contour preexisting buccal

  16. Continuous cytogenetic follow-up, over 5 years, of three individuals accidentally irradiated by a cobalt-60 source.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhi-Dong; Zhang, Xue-Qing; Du, Jie; Lu, Xue; Wang, Yuan; Tian, Rong; Liu, Qing-Jie; Chen, Ying

    2015-02-01

    A cobalt-60 irradiation accident occurred in Shanxi, China, on April 11, 2008. Five people were exposed to total-body irradiation ranging from 1.7 to 14.5 Gy. Two victims died post-irradiation, due to acute intestinal radiation sickness (at 62 days) and tuberculosis (at 1.5 year). The other three victims received medical follow-ups and were monitored for 5 years with multiple cytogenetic analyses. Unstable chromosome aberrations, including dicentric and centric rings (dic+r) and the micronucleus frequency in binucleated lymphocytes, were monitored. In addition, G-banding karyotype and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) methods were used to analyze translocations, for exploring chromosome stability and for retrospective dosimetry. The results show that unstable chromosome aberrations (dic+r) declined each year, dropping to about 20-40% of initial levels by the 5th year. A similar trend was observed for the micronucleus frequency. Our results show that the translocation frequencies of the three victims, detected by G-banding karyotype, remained stable for the 5 years. Five years after irradiation, the translocation rates of the three victims (G-banding and FISH analyses) were similar. The retrospective estimated doses, reconstructed based on the translocation frequencies, were consistent with the biological doses estimated at the first day post-irradiation using dic+r. The results of this study indicate that chromosome translocation frequencies can be used as a biological dosimeter and are an excellent index for dose reconstruction.

  17. Conditional disease-free survival after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Jian; Zhu, Ying; Ma, Feng; Ren, Yifang; Lu, Jianwen; Wang, Zhengxin; Qin, Lunxiu; Wu, Rongqian; Lv, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Traditionally, survival estimates following liver transplantation (LT) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients were calculated as survival from the surgery date, but future survival probabilities can change over time and conditional disease-free survival (CDFS) may provide patients and clinicians with more accurate prognostic information. This study aimed to assess CDFS in HCC patients after LT. Three hundred eighty-four HCC patients who underwent LT were included. Disease-free survival (DFS) was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier analysis. The 3-year CDFS, which represents the probability of remaining disease free for an additional 3 years, was calculated. 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS rates after LT were 69.9%, 45.8%, and 39.0 %, respectively. Based on the concept of CDFS, the probability of surviving an additional 3 years given that the patient was disease free at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 58.4%, 76.9%, and 83.1%, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that larger tumor size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.509; 95% CI, 1.146–1.985; P = 0.003) was associated with poorer DFS. Patients with worse prognostic features at baseline demonstrated the greater increase in CDFS over time. Survival estimates following liver transplantation of HCC patients change according to survival time accrued since surgery. CDFS estimates improved dramatically over time especially among patients with worse prognostic features at the time of surgery. CDFS may be a useful tool in counseling patients with HCC, as it is a more accurate assessment of future survival for those patients who have already survived a certain amount of time. PMID:27495049

  18. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Evaluating Wetland Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary using Hydroacoustic Telemetry Arrays to Estimate Movement, Survival, and Residence Times of Juvenile Salmonids, Volume XXII (22).

    SciTech Connect

    Perry, Russell W.; Skalski, John R.

    2008-08-01

    Wetlands in the Columbia River estuary are actively being restored by reconnecting these habitats to the estuary, making more wetland habitats available to rearing and migrating juvenile salmon. Concurrently, thousands of acoustically tagged juvenile salmonids are released into the Columbia River to estimate their survival as they migrate through the estuary. Here, we develop a release-recapture model that makes use of these tagged fish to measure the success of wetland restoration projects in terms of their contribution to populations of juvenile salmon. Specifically, our model estimates the fraction of the population that enter the wetland, survival within the wetland, and the mean residence time of fish within the wetland. Furthermore, survival in mainstem Columbia River downstream of the wetland can be compared between fish that remained the mainstem and entered the wetland. These conditional survival estimates provide a means of testing whether the wetland improves the subsequent survival of juvenile salmon by fostering growth or improving their condition. Implementing such a study requires little additional cost because it takes advantage of fish already released to estimate survival through the estuary. Thus, such a study extracts the maximum information at minimum cost from research projects that typically cost millions of dollars annually.

  19. Epidemiology and mortality of burns in the Lucknow Region, India--a 5 year study.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Sachil; Ali, Wahid; Verma, Anoop K; Pandey, Abhishek; Rathore, Shiuli

    2013-12-01

    Nearly 95% of global burn deaths and disabilities are estimated to occur in low and middle income countries of the world. Burns are extremely common and are a major public health problem in a developing country like India. The purpose of this study was to record and evaluate the causes and the magnitude of the fatal burns retrospectively. An analysis of autopsy records revealed 2225 (10.7%) cases of burns among the total autopsies done over 5 years period (1st January 2008-27th November 2012) in the mortuary of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology, K.G.M.U., Lucknow. The majority of deaths (88.8%) occurred between 10 and 49 years of age group with a preponderance of females (87.5%). The flame burns were seen in 60.1% of the victims. The majority of burn incidents were suicidal (38.6%) in nature followed by accidental (37.3%) and homicidal (24.1%) deaths. The percentages of burns with a total body surface area (TBSA) over 50% were observed in most of the cases (82.5%). In most of the cases deaths occurred within a week (82%) and most of the victims died from septicaemia and pneumonia (43.7%) followed by neurogenic shock (28.5%). The results of this study provide the necessary information to implement programmes for health education relating to prevention of burns focusing on the domestic setting.

  20. 77 FR 64959 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Initiation of 5-Year Review for the Southern Distinct...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-24

    ...; Initiation of 5-Year Review for the Southern Distinct Population Segment of North American Green Sturgeon... 5-year review of the Southern Distinct Population Segment (DPS) of North American green sturgeon... of requested information include: (1) Species biology including, but not limited to,...

  1. 77 FR 5491 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Initiation of 5-Year Review for Sei Whales

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-03

    ...; Initiation of 5-Year Review for Sei Whales AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic...; request for information. SUMMARY: NMFS announces a 5-year review of sei whales (Balaenoptera borealis... of any such information on sei whales that has become available since that has become available...

  2. Glioblastoma brain tumours: estimating the time from brain tumour initiation and resolution of a patient survival anomaly after similar treatment protocols.

    PubMed

    Murray, J D

    2012-01-01

    A practical mathematical model for glioblastomas (brain tumours), which incorporates the two key parameters of tumour growth, namely the cancer cell diffusion and the cell proliferation rate, has been shown to be clinically useful and predictive. Previous studies explain why multifocal recurrence is inevitable and show how various treatment scenarios have been incorporated in the model. In most tumours, it is not known when the cancer started. Based on patient in vivo parameters, obtained from two brain scans, it is shown how to estimate the time, after initial detection, when the tumour started. This is an input of potential importance in any future controlled clinical study of any connection between cell phone radiation and brain tumour incidence. It is also used to estimate more accurately survival times from detection. Finally, based on patient parameters, the solution of the model equation of the tumour growth helps to explain why certain patients live longer than others after similar treatment protocols specifically surgical resection (removal) and irradiation.

  3. 5 years of continuous seismic monitoring of snowmelt cycles in a Pyrenean valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diaz, Jordi; Sánchez-Pastor, Pilar; Gallart, Josep

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the analysis of background seismic noise variations in the proximity of river channels has revealed as a useful tool to monitor river flow, even for modest discharges. We will focus here in the application of this methodology to study the snowmelt cycle in an Pyrenean valley during the last 5 years, using data from the seismic geophysical station located inside the Canfranc Underground Laboratory (Central Pyrenees). Diaz et al. (2014) first identified in the seismic data the signature of river flow increases associated to snowmelt episodes in the catchment area of the Aragon River, based on the marked correlation between the seismic energy variations in the 2-8 Hz frequency band and the estimated variations in water resources from snowfall. The analysis of seismic data during the snowmelt periods allows to identify a clear 24h cycle, with energy increasing from about 14:00 GMT, remaining at a relatively high level for 12 hours and then smoothly vanishing. The spectrogram reveals richer information, as clear variations in the frequency content can be detected during the time intervals in which the amplitude of the seismic signal remains constant. The data available so far allow to compare the evolution of snowmelt in five seasons with very different hydrological behavior. The 2011 and 2012 seasons have been dry, with snow volumes 30-50 % beneath the average values, while the 2013, 2014 and in particular the 2015 seasons have been largely above the mean. Those variations are reflected in the seismic data, which allow to monitor the time occurrence of the main snowmelt stages for each season and to estimate the intensity of the different snowmelt episodes. Therefore, seismic data can be useful for long term monitoring of snowmelt in Alpine-style mountains.

  4. Gambling and Problem Gambling in Victoria, Australia: Changes over 5 years.

    PubMed

    Abbott, Max; Stone, Christine A; Billi, Rosa; Yeung, Kristal

    2016-03-01

    Rates of gambling and gambling-related harm fluctuate over time, influenced by availability, adaptation and demographic change, among other things. Assessing change is compromised by methodological variation. The main aim of this paper is to assess change in gambling participation and problems in adult Victorians over a 5-year period. Data are from the Victorian Gambling Study (VGS) 2008-2012 (n = 15,000) and the 2003 Victorian Longitudinal Attitudes Survey (n = 8479). An additional aim was to determine the impact of methodological differences on prevalence estimates. Despite gambling availability increasing and more activities being included participation rates declined substantially. Decreases occurred across almost all demographic groups and gambling activities. When adjustments were made for methodological differences there were no significant changes in problem, moderate risk and low risk gambling. Males and people with lower education had higher rates in both surveys. In the latter survey, two groups that experienced large participation reductions, namely young adults and metropolitan residents, emerged as additional groups with higher rates of problem and moderate-risk gambling. Further research is required to discover why overall rates of harm may have plateaued when participation continues to fall and why some groups with reduced participation experience increased harm. The findings suggest that availability and total consumption models are over-simplistic. They further suggest that to be effective prevention programmes will need to extend beyond gambling availability to include interventions directed towards individuals at risk and wider environmental determinants of vulnerability and harm. Additionally this study found that restricting administration of the problem gambling measure to subsets of gamblers generate significantly lower prevalence estimates, implying that many previous surveys under-portray gambling-related harm and that without appropriate

  5. Survival of ART restorations assessed using selected FDI and modified ART restoration criteria.

    PubMed

    Farag, Abeer; van der Sanden, Wil J M; Abdelwahab, Hisran; Frencken, Jo E

    2011-06-01

    A new set of criteria for assessing the quality of restorations using modern restorative materials, named FDI criteria, was recently introduced. This study tested the null hypothesis that there is no significant difference in survival estimate percentages of ART restorations assessed using selected FDI and modified ART criteria after 1 and 5 years. One operator placed a total of 60 class I and 30 Class II high-viscosity glass-ionomer ART restorations in ninety 14- to 15-year-olds. Two calibrated and independent evaluators using both criteria evaluated restorations on diestone replicas at baseline and after 1 and 5 years. Statistical analyses were done using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. The survival results of ART restorations assessed using both sets of criteria after 1 and 5 years (p = 0.27) did not differ significantly. Three ART restorations were assessed as failures according to the ART criteria, while they were assessed as survived using the FDI criteria. We conclude that the modified ART criteria enable reliable assessment of ART restorations in permanent teeth from diestone replicas and that there was no significant difference in survival estimates of ART restorations assessed using both sets of criteria. The null hypothesis was accepted.

  6. Trends in net survival from stomach cancer in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

    PubMed

    Glória, Luísa; Bossard, Nadine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Mayer-da-Silva, Alexandra; Faivre, Jean; Miranda, Ana

    2017-01-01

    Gastric cancers are a clinical challenge. The aim of the SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the net survival from gastric cancer between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland) and explore the trends in net survival and in the dynamics of the excess mortality rates (EMRs) up to 5 years after diagnosis. The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. First, net survival was studied over the period 2000-2004 using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analyses, the study period was specific to each country. The results are reported from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. These trend analyses were carried out using a flexible excess rate modelling strategy. There were little differences between countries in age-standardized net survival for stomach cancer (2000-2004). The 5-year net survival ranged between 26 (Spain) and 32% (Italy). There was a small increase in the age-standardized net survival at 1 year between 1992 and 2004. The increase was also observed in the 5-year net survival, except in France, where the increase was less marked. A slight decrease in the EMR between 1992 and 2004 was limited to the 24 months after diagnosis. In addition, the decrease in the EMR was the same whatever the year of diagnosis. There were minor differences in survival from stomach cancer between European Latin countries. A slight improvement in the 5-year net survival was observed in all countries and the major gain was observed during the 24 months after diagnosis. Development of innovative treatments is needed to improve the prognosis.

  7. Recent trends in survival of adult patients with acute leukemia: overall improvements, but persistent and partly increasing disparity in survival of patients from minority groups.

    PubMed

    Pulte, Dianne; Redaniel, Maria Theresa; Jansen, Lina; Brenner, Hermann; Jeffreys, Mona

    2013-02-01

    The survival of younger patients with acute leukemia has improved in the early 21(st) century, but it is unknown whether people of all ethnic and racial backgrounds have benefited equally. Using cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program, we assessed trends in 5-year relative survival for patients aged 15 years or more with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and acute myeloblastic leukemia divided by racial and ethnic group, including non-Hispanic whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asian-Pacific Islanders in the 1990s and the early 21(st) century. Modeled period analysis was used to obtain the most up-to-date estimates of survival. Overall, the 5-year survival increased from 31.6% in 1997-2002 to 39.0% in 2003-2008 for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and from 15.5% in 1991-1996 to 22.5% in 2003-2008 for those with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Nevertheless, among patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, age-adjusted 5-year relative survival rates remained lower for African-Americans and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites. Among patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia, the increase in survival was greatest (from 32.6% in 1991-1996 to 47.1% in 2003-2008) for younger patients (15-54 years), and was more pronounced for non-Hispanic whites (+16.4% units) than for other patients (+10.8% units). Increases in survival are observed in all ethnic or racial groups. Nevertheless, among patients with acute leukemias, disparities in survival persist between non-Hispanic white people and people of other ethnic or racial groups. Disparities are increasing in younger patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Improvements in access to treatment, especially for minority patients, may improve outcomes.

  8. Summary Report on the Graded Prognostic Assessment: An Accurate and Facile Diagnosis-Specific Tool to Estimate Survival for Patients With Brain Metastases

    PubMed Central

    Sperduto, Paul W.; Kased, Norbert; Roberge, David; Xu, Zhiyuan; Shanley, Ryan; Luo, Xianghua; Sneed, Penny K.; Chao, Samuel T.; Weil, Robert J.; Suh, John; Bhatt, Amit; Jensen, Ashley W.; Brown, Paul D.; Shih, Helen A.; Kirkpatrick, John; Gaspar, Laurie E.; Fiveash, John B.; Chiang, Veronica; Knisely, Jonathan P.S.; Sperduto, Christina Maria; Lin, Nancy; Mehta, Minesh

    2012-01-01

    Purpose Our group has previously published the Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA), a prognostic index for patients with brain metastases. Updates have been published with refinements to create diagnosis-specific Graded Prognostic Assessment indices. The purpose of this report is to present the updated diagnosis-specific GPA indices in a single, unified, user-friendly report to allow ease of access and use by treating physicians. Methods A multi-institutional retrospective (1985 to 2007) database of 3,940 patients with newly diagnosed brain metastases underwent univariate and multivariate analyses of prognostic factors associated with outcomes by primary site and treatment. Significant prognostic factors were used to define the diagnosis-specific GPA prognostic indices. A GPA of 4.0 correlates with the best prognosis, whereas a GPA of 0.0 corresponds with the worst prognosis. Results Significant prognostic factors varied by diagnosis. For lung cancer, prognostic factors were Karnofsky performance score, age, presence of extracranial metastases, and number of brain metastases, confirming the original Lung-GPA. For melanoma and renal cell cancer, prognostic factors were Karnofsky performance score and the number of brain metastases. For breast cancer, prognostic factors were tumor subtype, Karnofsky performance score, and age. For GI cancer, the only prognostic factor was the Karnofsky performance score. The median survival times by GPA score and diagnosis were determined. Conclusion Prognostic factors for patients with brain metastases vary by diagnosis, and for each diagnosis, a robust separation into different GPA scores was discerned, implying considerable heterogeneity in outcome, even within a single tumor type. In summary, these indices and related worksheet provide an accurate and facile diagnosis-specific tool to estimate survival, potentially select appropriate treatment, and stratify clinical trials for patients with brain metastases. PMID:22203767

  9. Annual recapture and survival rates of two non-breeding adult populations of Roseate Terns Stema dougallii captured on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and estimates of their population sizes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Neill, P.; Minton, C.D.T.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hines, J.E.

    2008-01-01

    Capture-recapture data from two disparate breeding populations of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) captured together as non-breeding individuals from 2002 to 2007 in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Australia were analyzed for both survival rate and recapture rate. The average annual survival rate for the birds from the Asian population (S. d. bangsi) (0.901) is higher than that of the other population of unknown breeding origin (0.819). There was large variability in survival in both populations among years, but the average survival rate of 0.85 is similar to estimates for the same species in North America. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber models used in program MARK to estimate survival rates also produced estimated of recapture probabilities and population sizes. These estimates of population size were 29,000 for S. D. bangsi and 8,300 for the study area and much larger than the documented numbers in the likely breeding areas, suggesting that many breeding sites are currently unknown.

  10. Examining spatial variations in the prevalence of mental health problems among 5-year-old children in Canada.

    PubMed

    Raos, Robert; Janus, Magdalena

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine spatial variations in the prevalence rates of the three most common behaviour problems among 5-year-old children in Canada, to establish the data's suitability for potential spatial analyses of factors contributing to the prevalence of such problems. Data on kindergarten children's outcomes are routinely collected for populations of children in Canada using the Early Development Instrument (EDI), a population-level, teacher completed questionnaire. These data have been previously used to estimate prevalence rates of aggression, anxiety, and hyperactivity. The current study geographically analyzed these estimates to examine their consistency in relation to gender differences at larger provincial geographies and smaller Census Subdivision (CSD) geographies. Multilevel analyses were completed to examine the variation in prevalence at both levels of geography. Data for over 150,000 5-year-olds in three Canadian provinces and 410 Census Subdivisions were available for analyses. Prevalence rates of behaviour problems estimated with the EDI showed consistent gender relationships at both levels of aggregation. Controlling for individuals' age and sex, there was significant variation at the CSD level in risk of behavioural problems, and for anxiety and aggression, this was not explained by the distribution of CSDs in different provinces. This suggests local variation in these aspects of children's behaviour, within provinces. These findings open up the opportunity to further explore the utility and variability of EDI-based spatial variation in children's mental health.

  11. Statistical description for survival data

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Statistical description is always the first step in data analysis. It gives investigator a general impression of the data at hand. Traditionally, data are described as central tendency and deviation. However, this framework does not fit to the survival data (also termed time-to-event data). Such data type contains two components. One is the survival time and the other is the status. Researchers are usually interested in the probability of event at a given survival time point. Hazard function, cumulative hazard function and survival function are commonly used to describe survival data. Survival function can be estimated using Kaplan-Meier estimator, which is also the default method in most statistical packages. Alternatively, Nelson-Aalen estimator is available to estimate survival function. Survival functions of subgroups can be compared using log-rank test. Furthermore, the article also introduces how to describe time-to-event data with parametric modeling. PMID:27867953

  12. Manner of Death Determination in Fire Fatalities: 5-Year Autopsy Data of Istanbul City.

    PubMed

    Esen Melez, İpek; Arslan, Murat Nihat; Melez, Deniz Oguzhan; Gürler, Ahmet Selçuk; Büyük, Yalçin

    2017-03-01

    Death resulting from burns is an important social problem and a frequent accident. However, because approximately 10% of cases are estimated to result from a fire that was deliberately started, all fire-related deaths should be treated as suspicious, and the cause of a fire should be investigated. For the bodies recovered from the scene of a fire, the manner of death could also be suicide or homicide. The objective of this study was to contribute to the clarification of controversial data present in the literature on the manner of death determination of fire-related deaths, through evaluation of autopsy findings of bodies recovered from fires. We reviewed 20,135 autopsies performed in a 5-year period, in Istanbul, as the whole autopsy data of the city and found 133 fire-related deaths. The death scene investigation reports and other judicial documents, autopsy findings, and toxicological analysis results were evaluated to determine the parameters of age, sex, level of the burn, vital signs [red flare; soot in the lower respiratory tract, esophagus, and/or stomach; and screening of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels in the blood], toxicological substances, presence of accelerants, cause of death, and manner of death. The manner of death was determined to be an accident in 98 (73.7%) and homicide in 12 (9%) cases, whereas there was no suicide. In addition, it could not be determined in 23 (17.2%) cases. In accidental deaths, the most frequent cause of death was COHb poisoning with statistically significant blood COHb levels greater than 10%. Further, the presence of soot in the lower respiratory tract, esophagus, and/or stomach and the existence of at least 1 or 2 vital signs together were found to be valid deterministic criteria with statistical significance in terms of identifying the manner of death.

  13. Etiology of Acute Otitis Media in Children Less Than 5 Years of Age

    PubMed Central

    Van Dyke, Melissa K.; Pirçon, Jean-Yves; Cohen, Robert; Madhi, Shabir A.; Rosenblüt, Andrés; Macias Parra, Mercedes; Al-Mazrou, Khalid; Grevers, Gerhard; Lopez, Pio; Naranjo, Laura; Pumarola, Felix; Sonsuwan, Nuntigar

    2017-01-01

    Background: Acute otitis media (AOM) is an important cause of childhood morbidity and antibiotic prescriptions. However, the relative importance of the well-known otopathogens, Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) and Haemophilus influenzae (Hflu), remains unclear because of a limited number of tympanocentesis-based studies that vary significantly in populations sampled, case definitions and heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use. Methods: We conducted a pooled analysis of results from 10 AOM etiology studies of similar design, the protocols of which were derived from a common protocol and conducted in children 3 months to 5 years of age in different countries. Generalized estimating equations were used to account for within-study correlations. Results: The majority, 55.5% (95% confidence interval: 47.0%–65.7%) of 1124 AOM episodes, were bacterial pathogen positive: 29.1% (24.8%–34.1%) yielded Hflu and 23.6% (19.0%–29.2%) Spn. Proportions of Hflu and Spn were higher and lower, respectively, in heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine–vaccinated children. Hflu and Spn were each isolated from 20% to 35% of children in every 1-year age range. Hflu was less likely to be isolated from first (vs. subsequent) episodes [relative risk (RR): 0.71 (0.60–0.84)]. Spn was more often isolated from sporadic (vs. recurrent) cases [RR: 0.76 (0.61–0.97)]; the opposite was true for Hflu [RR: 1.4 (1.00–1.96)]. Spn cases were more likely to present with severe (vs. mild) symptoms [RR: 1.42 (1.01–2.01)] and Hflu cases with severe tympanic membrane inflammation [RR: 1.35 (1.06–1.71)]. Conclusions: Spn and Hflu remain the leading otopathogens in all populations examined. While associated with overlapping symptoms and severity, they exhibit some differences in their likelihood to cause disease in specific subpopulations. PMID:27918383

  14. Deferiprone versus deferoxamine in thalassemia intermedia: Results from a 5-year long-term Italian multicenter randomized clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Calvaruso, Giuseppina; Vitrano, Angela; Di Maggio, Rosario; Lai, Eliana; Colletta, Grazia; Quota, Alessandra; Gerardi, Calogera; Rigoli, Luciana Concetta; Sacco, Massimiliano; Pitrolo, Lorella; Maggio, Aurelio

    2015-07-01

    In patients with thalassemia intermedia (TI), such as beta-TI, alpha-thalassemia (mainly HbH disease and mild/moderate forms of HbE/beta-thalassemia), iron overload is an important challenge in terms of diagnosis, monitoring, and treatment. Moreover, to date, the only possible chelators available are deferoxamine, deferasirox, and deferiprone. Here, we report the first 5-year long-term randomized clinical trial comparing the effectiveness of deferiprone versus deferoxamine in patients with TI. Body iron burden, which was determined by measuring serum ferritin levels in the same patient over 5 years and analyzed according to the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), showed a linear decrease over time in the mean serum ferritin levels in both treatment groups (P-value = 0.035). The overall period of observation was 235.2 person-years for the deferiprone patients compared with 214.3 person-years for the deferoxamine patients. The results of the log-rank test suggested that the deferiprone treatment did not affect survival compared with the deferoxamine treatment (P-value = 0.360). The major adverse events observed included gastrointestinal symptoms and joint pain or arthralgia. Neutropenia and agranulocytosis were also detected, suggesting needing of strict hematological control. In conclusion, long-term iron chelation therapy with deferiprone is associated with an efficacy and safety similar to that of deferoxamine, suggesting that this drug is an alternative option in cases in which deferoxamine and deferasirox are contraindicated.

  15. Do objective estimates of chances for survival influence decisions to withhold or withdraw treatment? The French Multicentric Group of ICU Research.

    PubMed

    Knaus, W A; Rauss, A; Alperovitch, A; Le Gall, J R; Loirat, P; Patois, E; Marcus, S E

    1990-01-01

    The authors studied the impact on clinical decision making of providing feedback of objective prognostic information describing the probability of survival for ICU patients with multiple organ system failure (OSF). The prognostic estimates, derived from a control period (1), were to be provided on a daily basis to physicians providing treatment in 25 French ICUs during a subsequent experimental period (2). The types of, frequencies of, and reasons for decisions to limit or stop treatment in the two periods were compared. In the experimental period 2, 17 ICUs participated in the feedback study. Within these 17 units, there was a small but significant (p less than 0.05) increase in decisions to stop active treatment and provide comfort care that was limited to patients with three or more OSFs. There was no change in decision making in the eight units that did not participate in the feedback study. Although these results suggest a direct causal relationship between the provision of objective prognostic data and changes in physician decision making, the small increase in comfort care decisions (n = 14) between period 1 and period 2 and the fact that only 17 of the 25 original units participated in the feedback study make it difficult to eliminate other influences. There was no indication in this study, however, that explicit provision of prognostic data led to a sense of therapeutic futility.

  16. Cigarette Smoking and Pancreatic Cancer Survival.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Chen; Morales-Oyarvide, Vicente; Babic, Ana; Clish, Clary B; Kraft, Peter; Bao, Ying; Qian, Zhi Rong; Rubinson, Douglas A; Ng, Kimmie; Giovannucci, Edward L; Ogino, Shuji; Stampfer, Meir J; Gaziano, John Michael; Sesso, Howard D; Cochrane, Barbara B; Manson, JoAnn E; Fuchs, Charles S; Wolpin, Brian M

    2017-03-30

    Purpose Cigarette smoking is associated with increased incidence of pancreatic cancer. However, few studies have prospectively evaluated the association of smoking with patient survival. Patients and Methods We analyzed survival by smoking status among 1,037 patients from two large US prospective cohort studies diagnosed from 1986 to 2013. Among 485 patients from four prospective US cohorts, we also evaluated survival by prediagnostic circulating levels of cotinine, a metabolite of nicotine that is proportional to tobacco smoke exposure. On the basis of prediagnosis cotinine levels, we classified patients as nonsmokers (< 3.1 ng/mL), light smokers (3.1-20.9 ng/mL), or heavy smokers (≥ 21.0 ng/mL). We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for death by using Cox proportional hazards models, with adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes status, diagnosis year, and cancer stage. Results The multivariable-adjusted HR for death was 1.37 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.69) comparing current smokers with never smokers ( P = .003). A statistically significant negative trend in survival was observed for increasing pack-years of smoking ( Ptrend = .008), with HR for death of 1.49 (95% CI, 1.05 to 2.10) for > 60 pack-years of smoking versus never smoking. Survival among former smokers was similar to that for never smokers, regardless of time since quitting. Heavy smokers defined by prediagnostic circulating cotinine levels had a multivariable-adjusted HR for death of 1.76 (95% CI, 1.23 to 2.51) compared with nonsmokers. Among patients with circulating cotinine levels measured within 5 years before diagnosis, heavy smokers had a multivariable-adjusted HR for death of 2.47 (95% CI, 1.24 to 4.92) compared with nonsmokers. Conclusion Cigarette smoking was associated with a reduction in survival among patients with pancreatic cancer.

  17. Trends in net survival from colon cancer in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

    PubMed

    Faivre, Jean; Bossard, Nadine; Jooste, Valérie

    2017-01-01

    Colon cancer represents a major public health issue. The aim of the SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the net survival from colon cancer between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland) and provide trends in net survival and dynamics of the excess mortality rates up to 5 years after diagnosis. The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. First, net survival was studied over the 2000-2004 period using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analyses, the study period was specific to each country. Results were reported from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. These analyses were carried out using a flexible excess rate modeling strategy. There were few differences between countries in age-standardized net survivals (2000-2004). During the 2000-2004 period, the 5-year net survival ranged between 57 (Spain and Portugal) and 61% (Belgium and Switzerland). The age-standardized survival at 1 and 5 years after diagnosis increased between 1992 and 2004. This increase was observed at ages 60 and 70, but was less marked at 80. This increase was linked to a marked decrease in the excess mortality rate between 1992 and 2004 until 18 months after diagnosis. Beyond this period, the decrease in the excess mortality rates among countries was modest and nearly the same whatever the year of diagnosis. There were minor differences in survival after colon cancer between European Latin countries. A considerable improvement in the 5-year net survival was observed in all countries, but the gain was mainly limited to the first 18 months after diagnosis. Further improvements are expected through the implementation of mass screening programs.

  18. Effect of water content and temperature on seed longevity of seven Brassicaceae species after 5 years of storage.

    PubMed

    Mira, S; Estrelles, E; González-Benito, M E

    2015-01-01

    Maximising seed longevity is crucial for genetic resource preservation and longevity of orthodox seeds is determined by environmental conditions (water content and temperature). The effect of water content (down to 0.01 g·H₂O·g(-1) ) on seed viability was studied at different temperatures for a 5-year storage period in taxonomically related species. Seeds of seven Brassicaceae species (Brassica repanda, Eruca vesicaria, Malcolmia littorea, Moricandia arvensis, Rorippa nasturtium-aquaticum, Sinapis alba, Sisymbrium runcinatum) were stored at 48 environments comprising a combination of eight water contents, from 0.21 to 0.01 g·H₂O·g(-1) DW and six temperatures (45, 35, 20, 5, -25, -170 °C). Survival curves were modelled and P50 calculated for those conditions where germination was reduced over the 5-year assay period. Critical water content for storage of seeds of six species at 45 °C ranged from 0.02 to 0.03 g·H₂O·g(-1) . The effect of extreme desiccation at 45 °C showed variability among species: three species showed damaging effects of drying below the critical water content, while for three species it was neither detrimental nor beneficial to seed longevity. Lipid content could be related to longevity, depending on the storage conditions. A variable seed longevity response to water content among taxonomically related species was found. The relative position of some of the species as long- or short-lived at 45 °C varied depending on the humidity at which storage behaviour was evaluated. Therefore, predictions of survival under desiccated conditions based on results obtained at high humidity might be problematic for some species.

  19. Comparison of piecewise Weibull baseline survival models for estimation of true and functional longevity in Brown cattle raised in small herds.

    PubMed

    Jenko, J; Ducrocq, V; Kovač, M

    2013-10-01

    Piecewise Weibull proportional hazard models were used to investigate the effect of genetic and nongenetic factors on functional and true longevity traits of the Slovenian Brown cattle breed. Records of 37 908 Brown cows from 2401 Slovenian herds were used. As these herds were characterised by a relatively small average herd size starting from 6.7 in 1999 and increasing to 8.7 Brown cows per herd in 2008, milk yield classification was made within different herd size groups. The hazard rate was the lowest in the first part of each lactation and was increasing for later stages. Culling risk was lower for cows from herds increasing in size, for cows with higher milk production and for cows from a region with smaller herd sizes and tougher conditions for cattle breeding. The latter result is surprising and may be related to better attention to maintain the animals, despite their lower milk production. The introduction of the milk quota system and drought was found to have an important effect on culling policy between the last seasons of the years 2001 and 2003. Seasonal effects were not related to the milk quota year (from April to March), but to the effect of shortage in fodder during the winter time. The effect of age at first calving and the interaction between year and milk yield class were not found to be significant. Heritability for functional and for true longevity were similar at around 10% each. Inclusion of a correction for class of milk yield to approximate functional longevity increased the herd-year random effect variance by 53%, whereas the sire variance increased by only 14%. The correlation coefficient between ranks of breeding values for functional and true longevity was high (0.91), whereas genetic trends were not found to be significant. To assess their predictive ability, models were compared looking at the survival rate of 4212 second-crop daughters not included in the initial models. The average correlation between estimated breeding values and

  20. Trends in net survival from pancreatic cancer in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

    PubMed

    Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Bossard, Nadine; Colonna, Marc; Garcia-Velasco, Adelaida; Carulla, Maria; Manfredi, Sylvain

    2017-01-01

    Pancreatic cancer represents a real clinical challenge. The aim of the SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the net survival from pancreatic cancer between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland) and provide trends in net survival and dynamics of excess mortality rates up to 5 years after diagnosis. The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. First, net survival was studied over the period 2000-2004 using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analyses, the study period was specific to each country. Results were reported from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. These analyses were carried out using a flexible excess rate modelling strategy. There were little differences between countries in age-standardized net survivals (2000-2004). The 5-year net survival was poor (range: 6-10%). The changes in net survival from 1992 to 2004 were mostly related to early survival and patients aged 60 years. A slight decrease in the excess mortality rate between 1992 and 2004 was observed, limited to the 18 months after diagnosis. This study confirmed that, despite some improvement, survival from pancreatic cancer is still poor throughout European Latin countries. The major improvements in clinical imaging did not result in improvements in prognosis. Development of truly innovative treatments is highly needed to improve prognosis.

  1. Visual function and car driving: longitudinal results 5 years after cataract surgery in a population

    PubMed Central

    Mönestam, E; Lundquist, B; Wachtmeister, L

    2005-01-01

    Aims: To determine visual function in drivers who had cataract surgery 5 years previously, and to analyse longitudinal data, by comparing preoperative and postoperative changes in subjective driving ability and objective visual function. Methods: All patients (810) who underwent cataract surgery, during a 1 year period, were prospectively studied. Data regarding present driving status were collected from self administered questionnaires and visual acuity (VA) data were measured before and after surgery. All patients who were alive 5 years later were invited to participate with a new eye examination and questionnaire. Results: Before surgery 36 active drivers (16%) did not fulfil the visual requirements for driving; with improved glasses this number could be reduced to 24 (11%). 5 years after surgery, the corresponding figures were 5% and 3% (5/174), respectively. Before surgery 50% stated visual difficulties while driving in daylight and 79% in darkness. A few months and 5 years after surgery the corresponding figures were 6% and 5%, respectively, for daytime driving and 34% and 44%, respectively, for night-time driving. Conclusions: Long term results regarding cataract surgery in car drivers are beneficial. 5 years after surgery only a few patients drove not fulfilling the requirements, but there were a larger proportion of patients with problems driving in darkness compared with a few months after surgery. PMID:15774924

  2. Postfledging survival of European starlings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1989-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that mass at fledging and fledge date within the breeding season affect postfledging survival in European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Nestlings were weighed on day 18 after hatch and tagged with individually identifiable patagial tags. Fledge date was recorded. Marked fledglings were resighted during weekly two-day intensive observation periods for 9 weeks postfledging. Post-fledging survival and sighting probabilities were estimated for each of four groups (early or late fledging by heavy or light fledging mass). Body mass was related to post-fledging survival for birds that fledged early. Results were not clear-cut for relative fledge date, although there was weak evidence that this also influenced survival. Highest survival probability estimates occurred in the EARLY-HEAVY group, while the lowest survival estimate occurred in the LATE-LIGHT group. Sighting probabilities differed significantly among groups, emphasizing the need to estimate and compare survival using models which explicitly incorporate sighting probabilities.

  3. Long-term survival of patients with CLL after allogeneic transplantation: a report from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

    PubMed

    van Gelder, M; de Wreede, L C; Bornhäuser, M; Niederwieser, D; Karas, M; Anderson, N S; Gramatzki, M; Dreger, P; Michallet, M; Petersen, E; Bunjes, D; Potter, M; Beelen, D; Cornelissen, J J; Yakoub-Agha, I; Russell, N H; Finke, J; Schoemans, H; Vitek, A; Urbano-Ispízua, Á; Blaise, D; Volin, L; Chevallier, P; Caballero, D; Putter, H; van Biezen, A; Henseler, A; Schönland, S; Kröger, N; Schetelig, J

    2017-03-01

    Even with the availability of targeted drugs, allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is the only therapy with curative potential for patients with CLL. Cure can be assessed by comparing long-term survival of patients to the matched general population. Using data from 2589 patients who received allo-HCT between 2000 and 2010, we used landmark analyses and methods from relative survival analysis to calculate excess mortality compared with an age-, sex- and calendar year-matched general population. Estimated event-free survival, overall survival and non-relapse mortality (NRM) 10 years after allo-HCT were 28% (95% confidence interval (CI), 25-31), 35% (95% CI, 32-38) and 40% (95% CI, 37-42), respectively. Patients who passed the 5-year landmark event-free survival (N=394) had a 79% probability (95% CI, 73-85) of surviving the subsequent 5 years without an event. Relapse and NRM contributed equally to treatment failure. Five-year mortality for 45- and 65-year-old reference patients who were event-free at the 5-year landmark was 8% and 47% compared with 3% and 14% in the matched general population, respectively. The prospect of long-term disease-free survival remains an argument to consider allo-HCT for young patients with high-risk CLL, and programs to understand and prevent late causes of failure for long-term survivors are warranted, especially for older patients.

  4. Prenatal Polybrominated Diphenyl Ether Exposures and Neurodevelopment in U.S. Children through 5 Years of Age: The HOME Study

    PubMed Central

    Yolton, Kimberly; Rauch, Stephen A.; Webster, Glenys M.; Hornung, Richard; Sjödin, Andreas; Dietrich, Kim N.; Lanphear, Bruce P.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are persistent chemicals that have been widely used as flame retardants in furniture, carpet padding, car seats, and other consumer products during the past three decades. Objective: We examined whether in utero exposure to PBDEs is associated with child cognitive function and behavior in a U.S. study sample. Methods: In a prospective birth cohort, we measured maternal serum concentrations of BDE-47 and other PBDE congeners in 309 women at 16 weeks of gestation during 2003–2006 and followed their children in Cincinnati, Ohio. We measured cognitive and motor abilities using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development-II at ages 1, 2, and 3 years; intelligence using the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence-III at age 5 years; and children’s behaviors using the Behavioral Assessment System for Children-2 annually at ages 2–5 years. We used linear mixed models or generalized estimating equations with adjustment for potential confounders to estimate associations between these outcomes and log10-transformed PBDE concentrations. Results: The geometric mean of BDE-47 in maternal serum (20.1 ng/g lipid) was comparable with U.S. adult national reference values. Prenatal BDE-47 was not significantly associated with Bayley Mental or Psychomotor Development Indices at 1–3 years, but a 10-fold increase in prenatal BDE-47 was associated with a 4.5-point decrease (95% CI: –8.8, –0.1) in Full-Scale IQ and a 3.3-point increase (95% CI: 0.3, 6.3) in the hyperactivity score at age 5 years. Conclusions: Prenatal exposure to PBDEs was associated with lower IQ and higher hyperactivity scores in children. Citation: Chen A, Yolton K, Rauch SA, Webster GM, Hornung R, Sjödin A, Dietrich KN, Lanphear BP. 2014. Prenatal polybrominated diphenyl ether exposures and neurodevelopment in U.S. children through 5 years of age: the HOME study. Environ Health Perspect 122:856–862; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307562 PMID

  5. Air pollution and survival within the Washington University-EPRI Veterans Cohort: risks based on modelled estimates of ambient levels of hazardous and criteria air pollutants

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick W. Lipfert; Ronald E. Wyzga; Jack D. Baty; J. Philip Miller

    2009-04-15

    For this paper, we considered relationships between mortality, vehicular traffic density, and ambient levels of 12 hazardous air pollutants, elemental carbon (EC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), and sulfate (SO{sub 4}{sup -2}). These pollutant species were selected as markers for specific types of emission sources, including vehicular traffic, coal combustion, smelters, and metal-working industries. Pollutant exposures were estimated using emissions inventories and atmospheric dispersion models. We analyzed associations between county ambient levels of these pollutants and survival patterns among approximately 70,000 U.S. male veterans by mortality period (1976-2001 and subsets), type of exposure model, and traffic density level. We found significant associations between all-cause mortality and traffic-related air quality indicators and with traffic density per se, with stronger associations for benzene, formaldehyde, diesel particulate, NOx, and EC. The maximum effect on mortality for all cohort subjects during the 26-yr follow-up period is approximately 10%, but most of the pollution-related deaths in this cohort occurred in the higher-traffic counties, where excess risks approach 20%. However, mortality associations with diesel particulates are similar in high- and low-traffic counties. Sensitivity analyses show risks decreasing slightly over time and minor differences between linear and logarithmic exposure models. We conclude that tailpipe emissions of both gases and particles are among the most significant and robust predictors of mortality in this cohort and that most of those associations have weakened over time. There may be concerns associated with large stationary sources burning coal, residual fuel oil and municipal solid wastes. Nickel and arsenic have been identified in coal fly ash and residual oil. 81 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.

  6. The effects of oil pollution on Antarctic benthic diatom communities over 5 years.

    PubMed

    Polmear, R; Stark, J S; Roberts, D; McMinn, A

    2015-01-15

    Although considered pristine, Antarctica has not been impervious to hydrocarbon pollution. Antarctica's history is peppered with oil spills and numerous abandoned waste disposal sites. Both spill events and constant leakages contribute to previous and current sources of pollution into marine sediments. Here we compare the response of the benthic diatom communities over 5 years to exposure to a commonly used standard synthetic lubricant oil, an alternative lubricant marketed as more biodegradable, in comparison to a control treatment. Community composition varied significantly over time and between treatments with some high variability within contaminated treatments suggesting community stress. Both lubricants showed evidence of significant effects on community composition after 5 years even though total petroleum hydrocarbon reduction reached approximately 80% over this time period. It appears that even after 5 years toxicity remains high for both the standard and biodegradable lubricants revealing the temporal scale at which pollutants persist in Antarctica.

  7. Behavior of 60Co and 134Cs in a Canadian Shield lake over 5 years.

    PubMed

    Bird, G A; Schwartz, W J; Motycka, M; Rosentreter, J

    1998-04-08

    Radionuclides were added to the anoxic hypolimnion of a Canadian Shield lake to simulate the nuclear fuel waste disposal scenario where radionuclides might enter the bottom waters of a lake. The radionuclides remained in the hypolimnion until lake mixing at autumn turnover after which 60Co was rapidly lost and 134Cs was slowly lost from the water. Only 0.4% of the 60Co and 0.6% of the 134Cs remained in the water at year 5. Highest concentrations occurred in periphyton and filter feeders, Holopedium gibberum and clams (Anodonata grandis grandis). From maximum annual concentrations in clam tissues, it was estimated that the availability of 60Co for uptake had a half-time (t1/2) of 835 days in the lake, whereas that for 134Cs was 780 days. Loss rate coefficients, k, for the radionuclides from taxa ranged from 0.0008 to 0.0043 day-1 (t1/2 = 161-866 days) for 60Co and from 0.0009 to 0.005 day-1 (t1/2 = 139-770 days) for 134Cs. Cobalt-60 concentrations in forage fish were low, whereas 134Cs concentrations increased over the first year or two, then slowly declined. On the basis of k values measured for forage fish, the biological half-time of 134Cs in forage fish ranged from 428 to 630 days. Maximum 134Cs concentrations in forage fish were higher following hypolimnetic addition than epilimnetic addition. Relatively high 134Cs concentrations in periphyton at year 5 point to the importance of benthic pathways in the recycling of contaminants to higher trophic levels. The presence of 134Cs in biota 5 years after the addition, long after concentrations were no longer detectable in surface waters, is evidence of the persistence of Cs in aquatic systems. The k values (or t1/2 values) for the loss of 60Co and 134Cs from water and their uptake and loss from biota can be used to establish parameter values for assessment models. The results demonstrate that assessment models should account for the release of radionuclides from sediment and their subsequent recycling in the food

  8. 3.5 Year Monitoring of 225 GHz Opacity at the Summit of Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsushita, Satoki; Asada, Keiichi; Martin-Cocher, Pierre L.; Chen, Ming-Tang; Ho, Paul T. P.; Inoue, Makoto; Koch, Patrick M.; Paine, Scott N.; Turner, David D.

    2017-02-01

    We present the 3.5 years monitoring results of 225 GHz opacity at the summit of the Greenland ice sheet (Greenland Summit Camp) at an altitude of 3200 m using a tipping radiometer. We chose this site as our submillimeter telescope (Greenland Telescope) site, because conditions are expected to have low submillimeter opacity and because its location offers favorable baselines to existing submillimeter telescopes for global-scale Very Long Baseline Interferometry. The site shows a clear seasonal variation with the average opacity lower by a factor of two during winter. The 25%, 50%, and 75% quartiles of the 225 GHz opacity during the winter months of November through April are 0.046, 0.060, and 0.080, respectively. For the winter quartiles of 25% and 50%, the Greenland site is about 10%-30% worse than the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) or the South Pole sites. Estimated atmospheric transmission spectra in winter season are similar to the ALMA site at lower frequencies (\\lt 450 GHz), which are transparent enough to perform astronomical observations almost all of the winter time with opacities \\lt 0.5, but 10%-25% higher opacities at higher frequencies (\\gt 450 GHz) than those at the ALMA site. This is due to the lower altitude of the Greenland site and the resulting higher line wing opacity from pressure-broadened saturated water lines in addition to higher dry air continuum absorption at higher frequencies. Nevertheless, half of the winter time at the Greenland Summit Camp can be used for astronomical observations at frequencies between 450 GHz and 1000 GHz with opacities \\lt 1.2, and 10% of the time show \\gt 10 % transmittance in the THz (1035 GHz, 1350 GHz, and 1500 GHz) windows. Summer season is good for observations at frequencies lower than 380 GHz. One major advantage of the Greenland Summit Camp site in winter is that there is no diurnal variation due to the polar night condition, and therefore the durations of low-opacity conditions

  9. Baseline Characteristics of the Infant Aphakia Treatment Study Population: Predicting Recognition Acuity at 4.5 Years of Age

    PubMed Central

    Hartmann, E. Eugenie; Lynn, Michael J.; Lambert, Scott R.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. To identify patient baseline characteristics that predict recognition acuity at 4.5 years of age in the Infant Aphakia Treatment Study, a study of patients with monocular infantile cataracts. Methods. We analyzed baseline characteristics of the 114 infants enrolled in the Infant Aphakia Treatment Study to determine which were most predictive of visual outcome at 4.5 years of age. All infants underwent cataract surgery between 1 and 7 months of age. Monocular acuity was assessed at 4.5 years of age by a traveling examiner using the Amblyopia Treatment Study HOTV protocol. Results. Age at cataract surgery was weakly associated with visual acuity (Spearman rank correlation coefficient = 0.19, P = 0.041) with median visual acuity better among the younger patients (28–48 days: 0.50 logMAR, 49–210 days: 1.10 logMAR, P = 0.046). Patients from families with private insurance had significantly better median visual acuity (0.60 vs. 1.40 logMAR, P = 0.0004). No other baseline characteristic revealed a significant bivariate relationship with visual acuity. A multiple linear regression relating visual acuity to all baseline characteristics demonstrated that only the availability of private insurance was statistically significant, accounting for 12% of the variance. Conclusions. This analysis concurs with previous studies that early surgery is important for good visual outcomes in patients with unilateral infantile cataracts. The fact that only one baseline variable (private insurance) contributed to the multivariate analysis, accounting for 12% of the variance, suggests that predicting visual outcome for these patients is complicated at best, and cannot be estimated from baseline characteristics alone. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00212134.) PMID:25503455

  10. Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis in Children up to 5 Years of Age in Spain: Epidemiology and Comorbidities

    PubMed Central

    Gil-Prieto, Ruth; Gonzalez-Escalada, Alba; Marín-García, Patricia; Gallardo-Pino, Carmen; Gil-de-Miguel, Angel

    2015-01-01

    Abstract This epidemiological survey in Spain estimates the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in children up to 5 year of age during a 15-year period (1997–2011). Observational retrospective survey was conducted by reviewing data of the National Surveillance System for Hospital Data, including >98% of Spanish hospitals. All hospitalizations related to RSV infection for children up to 5 years, reported during 1997–2011 period, were analyzed. Codes were selected by using the International Classification of Diseases 9th Clinical Modification 466.0–466.19, 480.1, and 079.6. A total of 326,175 and 286,007 hospital discharges for children up to 5 and 2 years of age were reported during the study period. The annual incidence was 1072 and 2413 patients per 100,000, respectively. The average length of hospital stay was 5.7 (standard deviation 8.2) days. Four hundred forty-six deaths were reported; of those, 403 occurred in children <2 years and 355 (80%) occurred in children <12 months of age. Hospitalization and mortality rates were significantly higher in boys and decrease significantly with age. The higher rate of hospitalization and mortality rates were found in the first year of life. Annual average cost for National Health Care System was € 47 M with a mean hospitalization cost of €2162. The average length of hospitalization and costs were significantly higher in high-risk children. RSV infections in children up to 5 year of age still pose a significant health threat in Spain, especially in the infants. The development of preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic guidelines focused in children with comorbidities may help reduce the hospital and economic burden of the disease. PMID:26020386

  11. Methow River Studies, Washington: abundance estimates from Beaver Creek and the Chewuch River screw trap, methodology testing in the Whitefish Island side channel, and survival and detection estimates from hatchery fish releases, 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martens, Kyle D.; Fish, Teresa M.; Watson, Grace A.; Connolly, Patrick J.

    2014-01-01

    , leaving one large pool near the bottom of the side channel and several shallow isolated pools that may or may not go dry. In seasonally connected side channels, juvenile salmonid survival in pools less than 100 cm average depth was lower than in pools greater than 100 cm average depth (Martens and Connolly, 2014). In this report, we document our field work and analysis completed in 2013. During 2013, USGS sampling efforts were focused on resampling of three reaches in Beaver Creek, testing methodology in the Whitefish Island side channel, conducting hatchery survival estimates, and operating a screw trap on the Chewuch River (funded by Yakama Nation; fig. 1). The Beaver Creek sampling effort was a revisit of three index sites sampled continuously from 2004 to 2007 to look at the fish response to barrier removal. Methodology testing in Whitefish Island side channel was done to determine the best method for evaluating fish populations after restoration efforts in side channels (previous sampling methods were determined to be ineffective after pools were deepened). Hatchery survival estimates were completed to monitor fish survival in the Methow and Columbia Rivers, while the screw trap was operated to estimate migrating fish populations in the Chewuch River and track passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. In addition, we maintained a network of PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTIS), assisted Reclamation with fish removal events associated with stream restoration (two people for 9 days; 14 percent of summer field season), and conducted a stream metabolism study designed to help parameterize and calibrate the stream productivity model (Bellmore and others, 2014) with model validation.

  12. Differences in survival between Māori and New Zealand Europeans with prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Lao, C; Obertová, Z; Brown, C; Scott, N; Edlin, R; Gilling, P; Holmes, M; Tyrie, L; Lawrenson, R

    2016-03-01

    This study aims to examine the survival disparity between Māori men and New Zealand (NZ) Europeans diagnosed with prostate cancer. We identified men aged 40+ years in the Midland Cancer Network region registered with prostate cancer in 2007-2010 in the Cancer Registry. Data were extracted from patient notes of all Māori men and a sample of NZ Europeans. The survival disparity between Māori men and Europeans was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional-hazards regression models after adjusting for other factors. This study included 535 men with prostate cancer (135 Māori men and 400 Europeans). The 5-year cancer-specific survival was 98.6% for men diagnosed with localised cancer, 88.8% for locally advanced disease and 19.1% for metastatic cancer. The all-cause survival and the cancer-specific survival were both significantly poorer for Māori men than for NZ Europeans (log rank test: P = 0.004, 0.006 respectively). The hazard ratio of cancer-specific survival for Māori men was 2.01 (95% CI: 1.21-3.36) compared with NZ Europeans. Māori men with prostate cancer had poorer all-cause survival and cancer-specific survival than NZ Europeans. Māori men were at risk of having more advanced disease at diagnosis, which explains most of the survival inequity between Māori men and NZ Europeans.

  13. Trends in net survival from ovarian cancer in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

    PubMed

    Chirlaque, María-Dolores; Uhry, Zoé; Salmerón, Diego; Sánchez-Zapata, María-Isabel; Zannoni, Gian Franco; Navarro, Carmen

    2017-01-01

    European Latin countries have some similarities in their health systems. It is thus interesting to look at their differences in cancer survival (here, ovarian cancer) through monitoring of specific indicators of quality care. The aim of this SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the trends in 1 and 5-year net survival from ovarian cancer and the trends in the excess mortality rates between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland). The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. First, the net survival was studied over the 2000-2004 period using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analyses, the study period was specific to each country. The results are reported from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland, and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. The analyses were carried out using a flexible excess rate modelling. Over the period 2000-2004, there were slight differences in the 5-year age-standardized net survivals from ovarian cancer; they ranged from 36% in Spain to 42% in Belgium. Net survival was much higher in young than in old age groups, but this difference was more marked in Spain and less marked in France. Between 1992 and 2004, the net survival increased in all countries, mainly in young and middle-aged women. However, the differences in 5-year net survival between these countries were larger in 2004 than in 1992. Slight differences were observed in survival from ovarian cancer between the six European Latin countries. A considerable improvement in survival was observed in all countries, especially in young and middle-aged women. This study highlights the need for further monitoring of ovarian cancer outcomes.

  14. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  15. 24 CFR 903.6 - What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan? 903.6 Section 903.6 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS RELATING TO HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT (CONTINUED) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR PUBLIC AND INDIAN...

  16. Changes in Exercise Capacity of Cardiac Asymptomatic Hereditary Hemochromatosis Subjects over 5-Year Follow up

    PubMed Central

    Shizukuda, Yukitaka; Smith, Kevin P.; Tripodi, Dorothy J.; Arena, Ross; Yau, Yu-Ying; Bolan, Charles D.; Waclawiw, Myron A.; Leitman, Susan F.; Rosing, Douglas R.

    2012-01-01

    Objective A long-term effect of hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) on aerobic exercise capacity (AEC) has not been well described. Design Forty-three HH and 21 volunteer control (VC) subjects who were asymptomatic underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing using the Bruce protocol. AEC was assessed with minute ventilation (VE), oxygen uptake (VO2), and carbon dioxide production (VCO2) at baseline (BL) at a 5-year follow up (5Y) assessment. A paired t-test was used for analyses of normality data; otherwise, a Wilcoxon singed rank sum test was used. Results Thirty-three HH subjects and 18 VC subjects returned for a repeat CPX at 5Y (80% overall return rate). At 5Y, AEC was not different between the two groups. As compared with BL measurements, exercise time, peak VO2, and the VE/VCO2 slope did not differ statistically at 5Y between both groups. Iron depletion by phlebotomy for 5 years did not significantly affect AEC in newly diagnosed HH subjects at baseline (n=14) and cardiac arrhythmias during exercise tended to decrease after 5 years of therapy in this group. Conclusions The AEC of asymptomatic HH subjects treated with conventional therapy is not statistically affected by the disease over a 5-year period. PMID:22311055

  17. Structural Priming as Learning: Evidence from Mandarin-Learning 5-Year-Olds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsu, Dong-Bo

    2014-01-01

    Three experiments on structural priming in Mandarin-speaking 5-year-olds were conducted to test the priming as implicit learning hypothesis. It describes a learning mechanism that acts on a shared abstract syntactic representation in response to linguistic input using an equi-biased Mandarin SVO-"ba" alternation. The first two…

  18. Cognitive and Temperament Clusters in 3- to 5-Year-Old Children with Aggressive Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sakimura, Jean N.; Dang, Michelle T.; Ballard, Kelley B.; Hansen, Robin L.

    2008-01-01

    Background: This study assessed the co-occurrence of cognitive problems and difficult temperament characteristics in children aged 3 to 5 years exhibiting aggressive behavior. Methods: Thirty-one children with high ratings on the Aggressive Behavior subscale of the Achenbach Child Behavior Checklist or Teacher Report Form were recruited from a…

  19. Introducing Engineering in Elementary Education: A 5-Year Study of Teachers and Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diefes-Dux, Heidi A.

    2015-01-01

    Engineering, when integrated into K-12 education, may offer a number of potential student learning and future success benefits. In a 5-year study, four cohorts of elementary teachers of grades 2 to 4 in a single US school district were provided with teacher professional development with engineering education. Teachers were prepared to teach…

  20. Trauma Revisited: A 5-Year-Old's Journey from Experiences, to Thoughts, to Words, towards Hope

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Emil

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, I describe the first 2 years of intensive psychotherapy of a multiply traumatized 5-year-old girl. I explore some of the ways in which violent and traumatic experiences were re-lived in the therapy and how they impacted on both patient and therapist. Within the discussion and illustrated by clinical vignettes, I consider the…

  1. The Development of Regulatory Functions from Birth to 5 Years: Insights from Premature Infants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feldman, Ruth

    2009-01-01

    This study examined physiological, emotional, and attentional regulatory functions as predictors of self-regulation in 125 infants followed 7 times from birth to 5 years. Physiological regulation was assessed by neonatal vagal tone and sleep-wake cyclicity; emotion regulation by response to stress at 3, 6, and 12 months; and attention regulation…

  2. Verbal Competence in Narrative Retelling in 5-Year-Olds with Unilateral Cleft Lip and Palate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klintö, Kristina; Salameh, Eva-Kristina; Lohmander, Anette

    2015-01-01

    Background: Research regarding expressive language performance in children born with cleft palate is sparse. The relationship between articulation/phonology and expressive language skills also needs to be further explored. Aims: To investigate verbal competence in narrative retelling in 5-year-old children born with unilateral cleft lip and palate…

  3. Developmental Norms of Children Aged 2 1/2-5 Years: A Pilot Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muralidharan, Rajalakshmi

    1969-01-01

    The purpose of this pilot study, aside from collection of developmental data on 38 nursery school children aged 2 1/2 to 5 years, was (1) to develop, modify and adapt the testing equipment used in Gesell's Developmental Schedule, in the field of motor, adaptive, language, and personal-social development; (2) to develop elaborate, exhaustive,…

  4. The Dynamics of an Online Knowledge Building Community: A 5-Year Longitudinal Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Myllari, Jarkko; Ahlberg, Mauri; Dillon, Patrick

    2010-01-01

    This paper reports a 5-year design experiment on cumulative knowledge building as part of an international project. Through a longitudinal study and analysis of cumulative research data, we sought to answer the question, "what happened and why in knowledge building?" Research data constitute messages which participants have written into a shared…

  5. Effectiveness of Multipurpose Unit Early Classroom Intervention Program for 4-5-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Celebioglu Morkoc, Ozlem; Aktan Acar, Ebru

    2014-01-01

    This research examined the effectiveness of Multipurpose Unit Early Classroom Intervention Program (MUECIP) prepared for 4-5-year-old (48-60 months) children whose development is at risk because of their families' socioeconomic conditions. The research adopted a preliminary test-final test control group trial model. The research participants were…

  6. Parental Strategies and Trajectories of Peer Victimization in 4 to 5 Year Olds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnet, Marielle; Goossens, Frits A.; Schuengel, Carlo

    2011-01-01

    This study was designed to examine how parental strategies contribute to explaining trajectories of peer victimization in young children. A total of 73 4 and 5 year old children identified as victims of peer aggression in the fall semester and their parents were recruited from 46 classrooms in 18 schools in the Netherlands. All children were…

  7. 75 FR 57254 - American Community Survey 5-Year Data Product Plans

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-20

    ...' specific feedback on the following four dimensions: 1. Block Group Level Geography--The Census Bureau... block group geography level, (2) the types of data products to be included in the 5-year data products... response is below. 1. Block Group Level Geography The Census Bureau received six comments in response...

  8. 24 CFR 903.6 - What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan? 903.6 Section 903.6 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban Development (Continued) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR PUBLIC AND INDIAN...

  9. 24 CFR 903.6 - What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan? 903.6 Section 903.6 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS RELATING TO HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT (CONTINUED) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR PUBLIC AND INDIAN...

  10. Early Book Stages, 0-5 Years [and] Creciendo con Libros (Growing [up] with Books). [Videotape.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holguin, Roxanna

    Using a lighthearted and simple approach, this 23-minute videotape in English and Spanish versions presents interactions between parents and children while reading books. The children in the videotape range in age from 0 to 5 years. The video is introduced by scenes of children enjoying books while narration discussing the impact of reading to…

  11. Episodic Memory and Episodic Foresight in 3- and 5-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayne, Harlene; Gross, Julien; McNamee, Stephanie; Fitzgibbon, Olivia; Tustin, Karen

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, we examined the development of episodic memory and episodic foresight. Three- and 5-year-olds were interviewed individually using a personalised timeline that included photographs of them at different points in their life. After constructing the timeline with the experimenter, each child was asked to discuss a number of…

  12. A Case Series of Marijuana Exposures in Pediatric Patients Less than 5 Years of Age

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, George Sam; Narang, Sandeep K.; Wells, Kathryn; Chuang, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Objective: In Colorado, there has been a large increase in medical marijuana dispensaries and licenses for the use of medical marijuana over the past year. This is a retrospective case series of marijuana exposures that have presented to the emergency department (ED) in children less than 5 years of age. Methods: We performed a retrospective chart…

  13. Low antibiotic resistance among anaerobic Gram-negative bacteria in periodontitis 5 years following metronidazole therapy.

    PubMed

    Dahlen, G; Preus, H R

    2017-02-01

    The objective of this study was to assess antibiotic susceptibility among predominant Gram-negative anaerobic bacteria isolated from periodontitis patients who 5 years prior had been subject to mechanical therapy with or without adjunctive metronidazole. One pooled sample was taken from the 5 deepest sites of each of 161 patients that completed the 5 year follow-up after therapy. The samples were analyzed by culture. A total number of 85 anaerobic strains were isolated from the predominant subgingival flora of 65/161 patient samples, identified, and tested for antibiotic susceptibility by MIC determination. E-tests against metronidazole, penicillin, amoxicillin, amoxicillin + clavulanic acid and clindamycin were employed. The 73/85 strains were Gram-negative rods (21 Porphyromonas spp., 22 Prevotella/Bacteroides spp., 23 Fusobacterium/Filifactor spp., 3 Campylobacter spp. and 4 Tannerella forsythia). These were all isolated from the treated patients irrespective of therapy procedures (+/-metronidazole) 5 years prior. Three strains (Bifidobacterium spp., Propionibacterium propionicum, Parvimonas micra) showed MIC values for metronidazole over the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing break point of >4 μg/mL. All Porphyromonas and Tannerella strains were highly susceptible. Metronidazole resistant Gram-negative strains were not found, while a few showed resistance against beta-lactam antibiotics. In this population of 161 patients who had been subject to mechanical periodontal therapy with or without adjunct metronidazole 5 years prior, no cultivable antibiotic resistant anaerobes were found in the predominant subgingival microbiota.

  14. Influence of Emotional Facial Expressions on 3-5-Year-Olds' Face Recognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freitag, Claudia; Schwarzer, Gudrun

    2011-01-01

    Three experiments examined 3- and 5-year-olds' recognition of faces in constant and varied emotional expressions. Children were asked to identify repeatedly presented target faces, distinguishing them from distractor faces, during an immediate recognition test and during delayed assessments after 10 min and one week. Emotional facial expression…

  15. Hands as Companions of the Mind: Essential Practical Life for the 5-Year-Old

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilder, Sharon Allen

    2012-01-01

    Numerous observations in Montessori classrooms led veteran Montessorians Pamela W. Trumble and Eleni Bokas to the conclusion that a universal need exists to bring integrity back to Practical Life, especially for 5-year-olds. Maria Montessori's observations over a century ago revealed the importance of Practical Life and its relationship to the…

  16. Wakefulness (Not Sleep) Promotes Generalization of Word Learning in 2.5-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Werchan, Denise M.; Gómez, Rebecca L.

    2014-01-01

    Sleep enhances generalization in adults, but this has not been examined in toddlers. This study examined the impact of napping versus wakefulness on the generalization of word learning in toddlers when the contextual background changes during learning. Thirty 2.5-year-old children (M = 32.94, SE = 0.46) learned labels for novel categories of…

  17. Children Born to Women with Intellectual Disabilities--5-Year Incidence in a Swedish County

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weiber, I.; Berglund, J.; Tengland, P.-A.; Eklund, M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Families with parental intellectual disabilities (ID) are likely to need support in achieving a decent family life. In order to accurately plan for such support services, society needs data regarding the occurrence of those parents and their children. The aim of this study was to investigate the 5-year incidence of children born to…

  18. Plastic bronchitis developing 5 years after Fontan procedure in a girl with Kartagener's syndrome.

    PubMed

    Nawa, Tomohiro; Yokozawa, Masato; Takamuro, Motoki; Kasuga, Ai

    2012-06-01

    Although rare, plastic bronchitis (PB) is an important early complication after Fontan procedure. Kartagener's syndrome is characterized by mucociliary dysfunction of the respiratory tract and has a triad of features, including situs inversus totalis, chronic sinusitis, and bronchiectasia. We experienced PB in a patient with Kartagener's syndrome 5 years after Fontan procedure.

  19. Predictors of ADHD Persistence in Girls at 5-Year Follow-Up

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mick, Eric; Byrne, Deirdre; Fried, Ronna; Monuteaux, Michael; Faraone, Stephen V.; Biederman, Joseph

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The main aim of this study was to examine the age-dependent remission from ADHD in girls transitioning through childhood into adolescence and early adulthood. Method: We conducted a 5-year prospective follow-up study of 123 girls with ADHD and 106 non-ADHD control girls aged between 6 and 17 years at ascertainment. ADHD was considered…

  20. How Do 5-Year-Olds Understand Questions? Differences in Languages across Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauerland, Uli; Grohmann, Kleanthes K.; Guasti, Maria Teresa; Andelkovic, Darinka; Argus, Reili; Armon-Lotem, Sharon; Arosio, Fabrizio; Avram, Larisa; Costa, João; Dabašinskiene, Ineta; de López, Kristine; Gatt, Daniela; Grech, Helen; Haman, Ewa; van Hout, Angeliek; Hrzica, Gordana; Kainhofer, Judith; Kamandulyte-Merfeldiene, Laura; Kunnari, Sari; Kovacevic, Melita; Kuvac Kraljevic, Jelena; Lipowska, Katarzyna; Mejias, Sandrine; Popovic, Maša; Ruzaite, Jurate; Savic, Maja; Sevcenco, Anca; Varlokosta, Spyridoula; Varnava, Marina; Yatsushiro, Kazuko

    2016-01-01

    The comprehension of constituent questions is an important topic for language acquisition research and for applications in the diagnosis of language impairment. This article presents the results of a study investigating the comprehension of different types of questions by 5-year-old, typically developing children across 19 European countries, 18…

  1. Behavior Problems at 5 Years of Age and Maternal Mental Health in Autism and Intellectual Disability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard P.; Emerson, Eric; Berridge, Damon M.; Lancaster, Gillian A.

    2011-01-01

    We examined child behavior problems and maternal mental health in a British population-representative sample of 5 year-old children with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD), controlling for the presence of an intellectual disability (ID). Behavior problems were significantly higher in children with ASD with/out ID compared to typically developing…

  2. Ready, Set, Grow! Health Education for 3-5 Year Olds.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Paula J.

    Intended for use in family day care, preschool centers, professional preparation institutions, and in homes, this comprehensive health education curriculum for 3- through 5-year-old children contains units designed to sequentially teach concepts about physical health, mental health, family living, and safety. Contents include the following…

  3. Guidelines for Health Assessment and Intervention Techniques for 3, 4, and 5 Year Old Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bentley, Judy K.

    These guidelines were developed to help registered nurses identify preschoolers with potential handicaps in the course of health assessments. Contents include guidelines on 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds. Contents are organized within age levels in terms of functioning levels and anticipatory guidance. Functional areas covered include physical,…

  4. Ensemble Perception of Size in 4-5-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweeny, Timothy D.; Wurnitsch, Nicole; Gopnik, Alison; Whitney, David

    2015-01-01

    Groups of objects are nearly everywhere we look. Adults can perceive and understand the "gist" of multiple objects at once, engaging ensemble-coding mechanisms that summarize a group's overall appearance. Are these group-perception mechanisms in place early in childhood? Here, we provide the first evidence that 4-5-year-old children use…

  5. Therapeutic Community in a California Prison: Treatment Outcomes after 5 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Sheldon X.; Roberts, Robert E. L.; McCollister, Kathryn E.

    2011-01-01

    Therapeutic communities have become increasingly popular among correctional agencies with drug-involved offenders. This quasi-experimental study followed a group of inmates who participated in a prison-based therapeutic community in a California state prison, with a comparison group of matched offenders, for more than 5 years after their initial…

  6. Deferiprone versus deferoxamine in sickle cell disease: results from a 5-year long-term Italian multi-center randomized clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Calvaruso, Giusi; Vitrano, Angela; Di Maggio, Rosario; Ballas, Samir; Steinberg, Martin H; Rigano, Paolo; Sacco, Massimiliano; Telfer, Paul; Renda, Disma; Barone, Rita; Maggio, Aurelio

    2014-12-01

    Blood transfusion and iron chelation currently represent a supportive therapy to manage anemia, vasculopathy and vaso-occlusion crises in Sickle-Cell-Disease. Here we describe the first 5-year long-term randomized clinical trial comparing Deferiprone versus Deferoxamine in patients with Sickle-Cell-Disease. The results of this study show that Deferiprone has the same effectiveness as Deferoxamine in decreasing body iron burden, measured as repeated measurements of serum ferritin concentrations on the same patient over 5-years and analyzed according to the linear mixed-effects model (LMM) (p=0.822). Both chelators are able to decrease, significantly, serum ferritin concentrations, during 5-years, without any effect on safety (p=0.005). Moreover, although the basal serum ferritin levels were higher in transfused compared with non-transfused group (p=0.031), the changes over time in serum ferritin levels were not statistically significantly different between transfused and non-transfused cohort of patients (p=0.389). Kaplan-Meier curve, during 5-years of study, suggests that Deferiprone does not alter survival in comparison with Deferoxamine (p=0.38). In conclusion, long-term iron chelation therapy with Deferiprone was associated with efficacy and safety similar to that of Deferoxamine. Therefore, in patients with Sickle-Cell-Disease, Deferiprone may represent an effective long-term treatment option.

  7. Extended Long-Term (5 Years) Outcomes of Triangle Tilt Surgery in Obstetric Brachial Plexus Injury

    PubMed Central

    Nath, Rahul K; Somasundaram, Chandra

    2013-01-01

    Objective: We evaluated the "extended" long-term (5 years) functional outcomes in obstetric brachial plexus injury (OBPI) patients, who underwent triangle tilt surgery between February 2005 and January 2008. Methods: Twenty two children (9 girls and 13 boys, mean age at surgery was 5.8 years; ranging 2.1-11.8 years old), who initially presented with medial rotation contracture and scapula deformity secondary to obstetric brachial plexus injury were included in this study. Functional movements were evaluated pre-operatively, and 5 years following triangle tilt surgery by modified Mallet scale. Results: Here, we report long-term (5 years) follow-up of triangle tilt surgery for 22 OBPI patients. Upper extremity functional movements such as, external rotation (2.5±0.6 to 4.1±0.8, p<0.0001), hand-to-spine (2.6±0.6 to 3.4±1.1, p<0.005), hand-to-neck (2.7±0.7 to 4.3±0.7, p<0.0001), hand-to-mouth (2.3±0.9 (92º±33) to 4.2±0.5 (21º±16), p<0.0001), and supination (2.6±1.1 (-8.2º ±51) to 4.1±0.7 (61±32)) were significantly improved (p<0.0001), and maintained over the extended long-term (5 years). Total modified Mallet functional score was also shown to improve from 14.1±2.7 to 20.3±2.5. Conclusions: The triangle tilt surgery improved all shoulder functions significantly, and maintained over the extended long-term (5 years) in these patients. PMID:23730369

  8. Dopaminergic therapy and subthalamic stimulation in Parkinson's disease: a review of 5-year reports.

    PubMed

    Romito, Luigi M; Albanese, Alberto

    2010-11-01

    The long-term efficacy and safety of deep brain stimulation (DBS) implant for Parkinson's disease (PD) is described in several recent papers. This procedure has been reported to permit a stable reduction of dopaminergic therapy requirements for up to 5 years, although some expectation of deterioration in non-dopaminergic signs has been recently stated. Our aim is to perform a literature-based review of papers available describing long-term post-operative follow-up after a bilateral implant for subthalamic DBS (STN-DBS). Only peer-reviewed published papers with a post-operative follow-up of at least 5 years were considered. Clinical outcome, disease progression and side effects were assessed at baseline and 2 (or 3 years) and 5 years after surgery. Seven papers were included in the review. A total of 238 patients were analyzed. STN-DBS was confirmed to be an effective treatment for selected patients with PD. In all studies, off-related motor symptoms improved dramatically, compared with pre-implant, at 2 (or 3, according to the study) years and this result persisted at 5-year evaluations. Antiparkinsonian drug reductions, improvements in motor fluctuations and dyskinesias, functional measures and the progression of underlying PD were also reported in all series. Some axial scores, in particular postural stability and speech, improved transiently. Persisting adverse effects included eyelid opening apraxia, weight gain, psychiatric disorders, depression, dysarthria, dyskinesias, and apathy. The present review of the 5-year observations confirms that STN-DBS is a powerful method in the management of PD, but its long-term effects must be thoroughly assessed.

  9. Prenatal and postnatal manganese teeth levels and neurodevelopment at 7, 9, and 10.5 years in the CHAMACOS cohort

    PubMed Central

    Mora, Ana M.; Arora, Manish; Harley, Kim G.; Kogut, Katherine; Parra, Kimberly; Hernández-Bonilla, David; Gunier, Robert B.; Bradman, Asa; Smith, Donald R.; Eskenazi, Brenda

    2015-01-01

    Background Numerous cross-sectional studies of school-age children have observed that exposure to manganese (Mn) adversely affects neurodevelopment. However, few prospective studies have looked at the effects of both prenatal and postnatal Mn exposure on child neurodevelopment. Methods We measured Mn levels in prenatal and early postnatal dentine of shed teeth and examined their association with behavior, cognition, memory, and motor functioning in 248 children aged 7, 9, and/or 10.5 years living near agricultural fields treated with Mn-containing fungicides in California. We used generalized linear models and generalized additive models to test for linear and nonlinear associations, and generalized estimating equation models to assess longitudinal effects. Results We observed that higher prenatal and early postnatal Mn levels in dentine of deciduous teeth were adversely associated with behavioral outcomes, namely internalizing, externalizing, and hyperactivity problems, in boys and girls at 7 and 10.5 years. In contrast, higher Mn levels in prenatal and postnatal dentine were associated with better memory abilities at ages 9 and 10.5, and better cognitive and motor outcomes at ages 7 and 10.5 years, among boys only. Higher prenatal dentine Mn levels were also associated with poorer visuospatial memory outcomes at 9 years and worse cognitive scores at 7 and 10.5 years in children with higher prenatal lead levels (≥0.8 μg/dL). All these associations were linear and were consistent with findings from longitudinal analyses. Conclusions We observed that higher prenatal and early postnatal Mn levels measured in dentine of deciduous teeth, a novel biomarker that provides reliable information on the developmental timing of exposures to Mn, were associated with poorer behavioral outcomes in school-age boys and girls and better motor function, memory, and/or cognitive abilities in school-age boys. Additional research is needed to understand the inconsistencies in the

  10. Surgical wound infections. A 5-year prospective study of 20,193 wounds at the Minneapolis VA Medical Center.

    PubMed Central

    Olson, M; O'Connor, M; Schwartz, M L

    1984-01-01

    This report describes a 5-year prospective study of postoperative wound sepsis utilizing a careful program of wound surveillance. Surgical wounds following 20,193 operations on all surgical services were surveyed by a trained nurse epidemiologist. Daily examination of wounds, culture of all suspicious wounds, and 30-day outpatient clinic follow-up were performed. Results were disseminated at monthly intervals to all involved surgeons and operating room personnel. Prospective and ongoing analysis of results facilitated identification and rectification of specific problem areas. Wound infection rates demonstrated a steady decline over the course of the study, overall rates dropping from 4.2% to 1.9% (p less than 0.05). This reduction in incidence of postoperative wound sepsis of 55% is estimated to have saved 2740 inhospital days and nearly $750,000. PMID:6703787

  11. Cancer survival in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and the UK, 1995–2007 (the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership): an analysis of population-based cancer registry data

    PubMed Central

    Coleman, MP; Forman, D; Bryant, H; Butler, J; Rachet, B; Maringe, C; Nur, U; Tracey, E; Coory, M; Hatcher, J; McGahan, CE; Turner, D; Marrett, L; Gjerstorff, ML; Johannesen, TB; Adolfsson, J; Lambe, M; Lawrence, G; Meechan, D; Morris, EJ; Middleton, R; Steward, J; Richards, MA

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Cancer survival is a key measure of the effectiveness of health-care systems. Persistent regional and international differences in survival represent many avoidable deaths. Differences in survival have prompted or guided cancer control strategies. This is the first study in a programme to investigate international survival disparities, with the aim of informing health policy to raise standards and reduce inequalities in survival. Methods Data from population-based cancer registries in 12 jurisdictions in six countries were provided for 2·4 million adults diagnosed with primary colorectal, lung, breast (women), or ovarian cancer during 1995–2007, with follow-up to Dec 31, 2007. Data quality control and analyses were done centrally with a common protocol, overseen by external experts. We estimated 1-year and 5-year relative survival, constructing 252 complete life tables to control for background mortality by age, sex, and calendar year. We report age-specific and age-standardised relative survival at 1 and 5 years, and 5-year survival conditional on survival to the first anniversary of diagnosis. We also examined incidence and mortality trends during 1985–2005. Findings Relative survival improved during 1995–2007 for all four cancers in all jurisdictions. Survival was persistently higher in Australia, Canada, and Sweden, intermediate in Norway, and lower in Denmark, England, Northern Ireland, and Wales, particularly in the first year after diagnosis and for patients aged 65 years and older. International differences narrowed at all ages for breast cancer, from about 9% to 5% at 1 year and from about 14% to 8% at 5 years, but less or not at all for the other cancers. For colorectal cancer, the international range narrowed only for patients aged 65 years and older, by 2–6% at 1 year and by 2–3% at 5 years. Interpretation Up-to-date survival trends show increases but persistent differences between countries. Trends in cancer incidence and

  12. Functional cardiovascular reserve predicts survival pre-kidney and post-kidney transplantation.

    PubMed

    Ting, Stephen M S; Iqbal, Hasan; Kanji, Hemali; Hamborg, Thomas; Aldridge, Nicolas; Krishnan, Nithya; Imray, Chris H E; Banerjee, Prithwish; Bland, Rosemary; Higgins, Robert; Zehnder, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Exercise intolerance is an important comorbidity in patients with CKD. Anaerobic threshold (AT) determines the upper limits of aerobic exercise and is a measure of cardiovascular reserve. This study investigated the prognostic capacity of AT on survival in patients with advanced CKD and the effect of kidney transplantation on survival in those with reduced cardiovascular reserve. Using cardiopulmonary exercise testing, cardiovascular reserve was evaluated in 240 patients who were waitlisted for kidney transplantation between 2008 and 2010, and patients were followed for ≤5 years. Survival time was the primary endpoint. Cumulative survival for the entire cohort was 72.6% (24 deaths), with cardiovascular events being the most common cause of death (54.2%). According to Kaplan-Meier estimates, patients with AT <40% of predicted peak VO2 had a significantly reduced 5-year cumulative overall survival rate compared with those with AT ≥40% (P<0.001). Regarding the cohort with AT <40%, patients who underwent kidney transplantation (6 deaths) had significantly better survival compared with nontransplanted patients (17 deaths) (hazard ratio, 4.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.78 to 11.38; P=0.002). Survival did not differ significantly among patients with AT ≥40%, with one death in the nontransplanted group and no deaths in the transplanted group. In summary, this is the first prospective study to demonstrate a significant association of AT, as the objective index of cardiovascular reserve, with survival in patients with advanced CKD. High-risk patients with reduced cardiovascular reserve had a better survival rate after receiving a kidney transplant.

  13. Situational analysis and future directions of AYUSH: An assessment through 5-year plans of India.

    PubMed

    Samal, Janmejaya

    2015-01-01

    AYUSH is an acronym for Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy. These are the six indigenous systems of medicine practiced in India. A department called Department of Indian System of medicine was created in March 1995 and renamed to AYUSH in November 2003 with a focus to provide increased attention for the development of these systems. Very recently, in 2014, a separate ministry was created under the union Government of India, which is headed by a minister of state. Planning regarding these systems of medicine was a part of 5-year planning process since 1951. Since then many developments have happened in this sector albeit the system was struggling with a great degree of uncertainty at the time of 1(st)5-year plan. A progressive path of development could be observed since the first to the 12(th)5-year plan. It was up to the 7(th)plan the growth was little sluggish and from 8(th)plan onward the growth took its pace and several innovative development processes could be observed thereafter. The system is gradually progressing ahead with a vision to be a globally accepted system, as envisaged in 11(th)5-year plan. Currently, AYUSH system is a part of mainstream health system implemented under National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). NRHM came into play in 2005 but implemented at ground level in 2006 and introduced the scheme of "Mainstreaming of AYUSH and revitalization of local health traditions" to strengthen public health services. This scheme is currently in operation in its second phase, since 1(st)April 2012, with the 12(th)5-year plan. The scheme was primarily brought in to operation with three important objectives; choice of treatment system to the patients, strengthen facility functionally and strengthen the implementation of national health programmes, however, in some places it seems to be a forced medical pluralism owing to a top-down approach by the union government without considerable involvement of the concerned community. In this

  14. Situational analysis and future directions of AYUSH: An assessment through 5-year plans of India

    PubMed Central

    Samal, Janmejaya

    2015-01-01

    AYUSH is an acronym for Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy. These are the six indigenous systems of medicine practiced in India. A department called Department of Indian System of medicine was created in March 1995 and renamed to AYUSH in November 2003 with a focus to provide increased attention for the development of these systems. Very recently, in 2014, a separate ministry was created under the union Government of India, which is headed by a minister of state. Planning regarding these systems of medicine was a part of 5-year planning process since 1951. Since then many developments have happened in this sector albeit the system was struggling with a great degree of uncertainty at the time of 1st5-year plan. A progressive path of development could be observed since the first to the 12th5-year plan. It was up to the 7thplan the growth was little sluggish and from 8thplan onward the growth took its pace and several innovative development processes could be observed thereafter. The system is gradually progressing ahead with a vision to be a globally accepted system, as envisaged in 11th5-year plan. Currently, AYUSH system is a part of mainstream health system implemented under National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). NRHM came into play in 2005 but implemented at ground level in 2006 and introduced the scheme of “Mainstreaming of AYUSH and revitalization of local health traditions” to strengthen public health services. This scheme is currently in operation in its second phase, since 1stApril 2012, with the 12th5-year plan. The scheme was primarily brought in to operation with three important objectives; choice of treatment system to the patients, strengthen facility functionally and strengthen the implementation of national health programmes, however, in some places it seems to be a forced medical pluralism owing to a top-down approach by the union government without considerable involvement of the concerned community. In this study, the

  15. Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

    2015-12-01

    Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

  16. 75 FR 53272 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Initiation of 5-Year Review of the Eastern Distinct Population...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-31

    ... of 5-Year Review of the Eastern Distinct Population Segment of the Steller Sea Lion AGENCY: National..., 2010, announcing the initiation of a 5-year review of the eastern Distinct Population Segment (DPS) of..., announcing the initiation of a 5-year review of the eastern Distinct Population Segment (DPS) of the...

  17. Medical Advances and Racial/ethnic Disparities in Cancer Survival

    PubMed Central

    Tehranifar, Parisa; Neugut, Alfred I.; Phelan, Jo C.; Link, Bruce G.; Liao, Yuyan; Desai, Manisha; Terry, Mary Beth

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND Although advances in early detection and treatment of cancer improve overall population survival, these advances may not benefit all population groups equally, and may heighten racial/ethnic (R/E) differences in survival. METHODS We identified cancer cases in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, who were ≥ 20 years and diagnosed with one invasive cancer in 1995–1999 (n=580,225). We used 5-year relative survival rates (5Y-RSR) to measure the degree to which mortality from each cancer is amenable to medical interventions (amenability index). We used Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate survival differences between each R/E minority group relative to whites, by the overall amenability index, and three levels of amenability (non-amenable, partly and mostly amenable cancers, corresponding to cancers with 5Y-RSR <40%, 40–69% and ≥ 70%, respectively), adjusting for gender, age, disease stage and county-level poverty concentration. RESULTS As amenability increased, R/E differences in cancer survival increased for African Americans, American Indians/Native Alaskans and Hispanics relative to whites. For example, the hazard rate ratios (95% confidence intervals) for African Americans vs. whites from non-amenable, partly amenable and mostly amenable cancers were 1.05 (1.03, 1.07), 1.38 (1.34,1.41), and 1.41 (1.37, 1.46), respectively. Asians/Pacific Islanders had similar or longer survival relative to whites across amenability levels; however, several subgroups experienced increasingly poorer survival with increasing amenability. CONCLUSIONS Cancer survival disparities for most R/E minority populations widen as cancers become more amenable to medical interventions. Efforts in developing cancer control measures must be coupled with specific strategies for reducing the expected disparities. PMID:19789367

  18. Predicting survival in potentially curable lung cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Win, Thida; Sharples, Linda; Groves, Ashley M; Ritchie, Andrew J; Wells, Francis C; Laroche, Clare M

    2008-01-01

    Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death with unchanged mortality for 50 years. Only localized nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is curable. In these patients it is essential to accurately predict survival to help identify those that will benefit from treatment and those at risk of relapse. Despite needing this clinical information, prospective data are lacking. We therefore prospectively identified prognostic factors in patients with potentially curable lung cancer. Over 2 years, 110 consecutive patients with confirmed localized NSCLC (stages 1-3A) were recruited from a single tertiary center. Prognostic factors investigated included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), performance status, comorbidity, disease stage, quality of life, and respiratory physiology. Patients were followed up for 3-5 years and mortality recorded. The data were analyzed using survival analysis methods. Twenty-eight patients died within 1 year, 15 patients died within 2 years, and 11 patients died within 3 years postsurgery. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates show a survival rate of 51% at 3 years. Factors significantly (p < 0.05) associated with poor overall survival were age at assessment, diabetes, serum albumin, peak VO(2) max, shuttle walk distance, and predicted postoperative transfer factor. In multiple-variable survival models, the strongest predictors of survival overall were diabetes and shuttle walk distance. The results show that potentially curable lung cancer patients should not be discriminated against with respect to weight and smoking history. Careful attention is required when managing patients with diabetes. Respiratory physiologic measurements were of limited value in predicting long-term survival after lung cancer surgery.

  19. Survival of non-seminomatous germ cell cancer patients according to the IGCC classification: An update based on meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    van Dijk, Merel R; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Habbema, J Dik F

    2006-05-01

    The International Germ Cell Consensus (IGCC) Classification distinguishes patients with non-seminomatous germ cell tumours (NSGCT) with a good, intermediate or poor prognosis, with a reported 5-year overall survival of 92%, 80% and 48%, respectively. Since the IGCC classification was based on patients treated between 1975 and 1990, we aimed to investigate whether survival has improved for more recently treated patients. We did a systematic search of the literature and included studies on survival of patients with NSGCT, treated after 1989 and classified according to the IGCC classification. Survival estimates of selected studies were pooled using meta-analytic techniques. We included 10 papers, describing 1775 patients with NSGCT with good (n = 1087), intermediate (n = 232), or poor (n = 456) prognosis. Pooled 5-year survival estimates were 94%, 83% and 71%, respectively. Since the publication of the IGCC classification, there was a small increase in survival for good and intermediate prognosis patients, and a large increase in survival for patients with a poor prognosis. This increase is most likely due to both more effective treatment strategies and more experience in treating NSGCT patients.

  20. Resting Energy Expenditure and Systolic Blood Pressure Relationships in Women Across 4.5 Years

    PubMed Central

    Sriram, Neeraj; Hunter, Gary R.; Fisher, Gordon; Brock, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have reported a strong association between blood pressure (BP) and resting energy expenditure (REE). However, it is not known if this relationship persists over time. Therefore, we examined the temporal relationship between REE and systolic BP. Additionally, we examined the impact of sympathetic tone and anthropometric variables on this relationship. All testing was performed on healthy, overweight African American and European American women aged 25 – 45 years over 4.5 years in the UAB General Clinical Research Center. Repeated measures mixed-models revealed REE as a significant determinant of systolic BP (β=0.0155, P<0.0001), independent of catecholamines, leg fat, visceral fat, fat free mass, fat mass, height, RSMI, and resting heart rate. Observations that REE is predictive of systolic BP across 4.5 years support previous findings that REE may potentially mediate resting BP, independent of anthropometric variables and a marker for sympathetic tone. PMID:24548382

  1. Screw fixation for atlantoaxial dislocation related to Down syndrome in children younger than 5 years.

    PubMed

    Ito, Kenyu; Imagama, Shiro; Ito, Zenya; Ando, Kei; Kobayashi, Kazuyoshi; Hida, Tetsuro; Ishikawa, Yoshimoto; Ishiguro, Naoki

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to present cases of upper cervical fixation in Down syndrome patients younger than 5 years. In two cases, C1 lateral mass screws were installed. However, owing to the irreducible atlantoaxial dislocation, the screw backed out and fractured. Therefore, O-C2 fusion was performed. Furthermore, C2 bilateral lamina screws were added to the C2 pedicle screw for reinforcement. C1-C2 fusion is an option for Down syndrome patients younger than 5 years with atlantoaxial dislocation, when the dislocation is reducible. If the dislocation is irreducible, or the implant cannot be firmly secured, the fixation range should be expanded to O-C2 or below.

  2. [Tibial valgization osteotomy in gonarthrosis with or without chondrocalcinosis. Results after 5 years].

    PubMed

    Job-Deslandre, C; Languepin, A; Benvenuto, M; Menkès, C J

    1991-01-01

    The authors compare the results of valgisation tibial osteotomies in osteoarthrosis of the knee (146 cases) and osteoarthrosis of the knee with chondrocalcinosis (94 cases). The two groups were identical in terms of age, but differed by sex ratio (female predominance in CCA) and the initial radiological stage (more advanced forms in the CCA group). Results differed after the second year and reached significantly different values at 5 years (73% in knee osteoarthrosis as against 34% good clinical results in chondrocalcinosis). Study of two groups of patients paired for age, sex, weight and radiological stage showed that results at 5 years were significantly less good in the CCA group. These results are discussed and compared with those in the 1990 literature.

  3. Residual gentamicin-release from antibiotic-loaded polymethylmethacrylate beads after 5 years of implantation.

    PubMed

    Neut, Daniëlle; van de Belt, Hilbrand; van Horn, Jim R; van der Mei, Henny C; Busscher, Henk J

    2003-05-01

    In infected joint arthroplasty, high local levels of antibiotics are achieved through temporary implantation of non-biodegradable gentamicin-loaded polymethylmethacrylate beads. Despite their antibiotic release, these beads act as a biomaterial surface to which bacteria preferentially adhere, grow and potentially develop antibiotic resistance. In routine clinical practice, these beads are removed after 14 days, but for a variety of reasons, we were confronted with a patient in which these beads were left in situ for 5 years. Retrieval of gentamicin-loaded beads from this patient constituted an exceptional case to study the effects of long-term implantation on potentially colonizing microflora and gentamicin release. Gentamicin-release test revealed residual antibiotic release after being 5 years in situ and extensive microbiological sampling resulted in recovery of a gentamicin-resistant staphylococcal strain from the bead surface. This case emphasizes the importance of developing biodegradable antibiotic-loaded beads as an antibiotic delivery system.

  4. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVI : Survival and Transportation Effects for Migrating Snake River Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates from 1996-2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Buchanan, Rebecca A.; Skalski, John R.

    2007-12-07

    In 2005, the University of Washington developed a new statistical model to analyze the combined juvenile and adult detection histories of PIT-tagged salmon migrating through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). This model, implemented by software Program ROSTER (River-Ocean Survival and Transportation Effects Routine), has been used to estimate survival and transportation effects on large temporal and spatial scales for PIT-tagged hatchery spring and summer Chinook salmon and steelhead released in the Snake River Basin from 1996 to 2003. Those results are reported here. Annual estimates of the smolt-to-adult return ratio (SAR), juvenile inriver survival from Lower Granite to Bonneville, the ocean return probability from Bonneville to Bonneville, and adult upriver survival from Bonneville to Lower Granite are reported. Annual estimates of transport-inriver (T/I) ratios and differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) are reported on both a systemwide basis, incorporating all transport dams analyzed, and a dam-specific basis. Transportation effects are estimated only for dams where at least 5,000 tagged smolts were transported from a given upstream release group. Because few tagged hatchery steelhead were transported in these years, no transportation effects are estimated for steelhead. Performance measures include age-1-ocean adult returns for steelhead, but not for Chinook salmon. Annual estimates of SAR from Lower Granite back to Lower Granite averaged 0.71% with a standard error (SE) of 0.18% for spring Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin for tagged groups released from 1996 through 2003, omitting age-1-ocean (jack) returns. For summer Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin, the estimates of annual SAR averaged 1.15% (SE=0.31%). Only for the release years 1999 and 2000 did the Chinook SAR approach the target value of 2%, identified by the NPCC as the minimum SAR necessary for recovery. Annual estimates of SAR for hatchery steelhead from the

  5. A 5-year Journey with Cutis Laxa in an Indian Child: The De Barsy Syndrome Revisited

    PubMed Central

    Dutta, Abhijit; Ghosh, Sudip Kumar; Ghosh, Arghyaprasun; Roy, Sutirtha

    2016-01-01

    De Barsy syndrome (DBS), synonymously known as autosomal recessive cutis laxa type III, is an extremely rare condition clinically characterized by cutis laxa, a progeroid appearance, and ophthalmologic abnormalities. We present here an account of 5-year follow-up since the birth of an Indian boy with DBS, who had a few rare and unusual manifestations. In addition, our case probably represents the first reported case of DBS from India. PMID:26955101

  6. Equatorial Annual Oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year Modulation in NCEP Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

    2007-01-01

    An analysis is presented of the zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which have been assimilated in the Reanalysis and the Climate Prediction Center (CCP) data sets. The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the annual 12-month oscillation and Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also inferred for the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different data samples indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this periodicity of the QBO is involved in generating the oscillation. The spectral analysis shows that there is a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal winds, which could interact with the large antisymmetric A0 to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO as was shown in earlier modeling studies. According to these studies, the 30-month QBO tends to be synchronized by the equatorial Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO), and this would explain why the inferred 5-year modulation is observed to persist and is phase locked over several cycles.

  7. Increased risk of cancer after Bell's palsy: a 5-year follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Sheu, Jau-Jiuan; Keller, Joseph J; Lin, Herng-Ching

    2012-11-01

    Reactivation of latent herpes simplex virus (HSV) type I or varicella-zoster virus (VZV) has been recognized as the most common pathomechanism underlying Bell's palsy. There is also increased reactivation of HSV or VZV in patients with immunosuppressed states and in cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the risk for cancer during a 5-year follow-up period after diagnosis of Bell's palsy by using a population-based dataset in Taiwan. We used data from the "Longitudinal Health Insurance Database". We identified 2,618 patients with Bell's palsy as the study cohort and randomly selected 13,090 patients to be used as a comparison cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to compare the 5-year risk of subsequent cancer between the study and comparison cohorts. We found that the incidence of cancer was 1.55 (95 % CI 1.35-1.78) per 100 person-years for patients with Bell's palsy and 1.09 (95 % CI 1.02-1.18) per 100 person-years for comparison patients. After censoring cases that died from non-cancer causes during the follow-up period and adjusting for urbanization, monthly income, geographic region, and diabetes, the hazard ratio (HR) for cancer during the 5-year follow-up period for patients with Bell's palsy was 1.43 times that for comparison patients (95 % CI 1.22-1.73). There was a particularly increased risk of oral cancer (HR = 2.49; 95 % CI 1.54-4.03) for patients with Bell's palsy compared with the other patients. We conclude that patients with Bell's palsy were at significant risk of cancer during a 5-year follow-up period after diagnosis.

  8. Childhood leukaemia incidence below the age of 5 years near French nuclear power plants.

    PubMed

    Laurier, D; Hémon, D; Clavel, J

    2008-09-01

    A recent study indicated an excess risk of leukaemia among children under the age of 5 years living in the vicinity of nuclear power plants in Germany. We present results relating to the incidence of childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of nuclear power plants in France for the same age range. These results do not indicate an excess risk of leukaemia in young children living near French nuclear power plants.

  9. Relief of membranous obstruction of the inferior vena cava in a 5-year-old child.

    PubMed

    Amodeo, A; Di Donato, R; Dessanti, A; Caccia, G; Zaltron, D; Alberti, D; Callea, F; Marcelletti, C

    1986-12-01

    Membranous obstruction of the inferior vena cava is a rare congenital anomaly that may present clinical features of Budd-Chiari syndrome caused by chronic obstruction of the hepatic drainage. We report membranous obstruction of the inferior vena cava in a 5-year-old boy. Surgical repair was prompted by signs and symptoms of hepatic venous obstruction. To our knowledge, this is the youngest patient successfully operated on for this anomaly.

  10. Prenatal Lead Exposure and Weight of 0- to 5-Year-Old Children in Mexico City

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, Karen E.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Cantonwine, David; Lamadrid-Figueroa, Héctor; Schnaas, Lourdes; Ettinger, Adrienne S.; Hernández-Avila, Mauricio; Hu, Howard; Téllez-Rojo, Martha M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Cumulative prenatal lead exposure, as measured by maternal bone lead burden, has been associated with smaller weight of offspring at birth and 1 month of age, but no study has examined whether this effect persists into early childhood. Objective: We investigated the association of perinatal maternal bone lead, a biomarker of cumulative prenatal lead exposure, with children’s attained weight over time from birth to 5 years of age. Methods: Children were weighed at birth and at several intervals up until 60 months. Maternal tibia and patella lead were measured at 1 month postpartum using in vivo K-shell X-ray fluorescence. We used varying coefficient models with random effects to assess the association of maternal bone lead with weight trajectories of 522 boys and 477 girls born between 1994 and 2005 in Mexico City. Results: After controlling for breast-feeding duration, maternal anthropometry, and sociodemographic characteristics, a 1-SD increase in maternal patella lead (micrograms per gram) was associated with a 130.9-g decrease in weight [95% confidence interval (CI), –227.4 to –34.4 g] among females and a 13.0-g nonsignificant increase in weight among males (95% CI, –73.7 to 99.9 g) at 5 years of age. These associations were similar after controlling for concurrent blood lead levels between birth and 5 years. Conclusions: Maternal bone lead was associated with lower weight over time among female but not male children up to 5 years of age. Given that the association was evident for patellar but not tibial lead levels, and was limited to females, results need to be confirmed in other studies. PMID:21715242

  11. The prevalence of dental erosion in 5-year-old preschoolers in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

    PubMed Central

    Gopinath, Vellore Kannan

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the percentage of 5-year-old preschoolers in Sharjah, affected by dental erosion and to assess the predictors. Materials and Methods: A total of 403 5-year-old children were examined of which 48.14% (n = 194) were boys and 51.86% (n = 209) were girls; 31.27% (n = 126) were Emirati and 68.73% (n = 277) were non-Emirati Arabs. Examination of dental erosion was confined to palatal surfaces of maxillary incisors using the erosion index described in the UK National Survey of Children's Dental Health, 1993. Dental caries was charted using the World Health Organization 1997 criteria. Results: In the sample of 403 5-year-old preschoolers examined, dental erosion was apparent in 237 (58.80%) children, with 55.09% showing the dissolution of enamel and 3.72% exhibiting exposed dentin. Predictors of dental erosion as determined by logistic regression concluded that compared to Emirati citizens other Arab nationalities have 0.27 times the odds (95% confidence interval [CI] =0.18–0.42) of having tooth erosion (P < 0.05). Children with caries experience have 0.28 times the odds (95% CI = 0.16–0.51) of having tooth erosion compared to children with no caries experience (P < 0.05). Children who drink sugary or carbonated beverages have 0.30 times the odds (95% CI = 0.19–0.41) of having dental erosion compared to children who drink water (P < 0.05). Conclusions: The findings of this study indicate that 58.80% of 5-year-old preschoolers in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates, were affected by dental erosion. Caries experience and consumption of acidic drinks were associated with dental erosion. PMID:27095899

  12. Development and verification of child observation sheet for 5-year-old children.

    PubMed

    Fujimoto, Keiko; Nagai, Toshisaburo; Okazaki, Shin; Kawajiri, Mie; Tomiwa, Kiyotaka

    2014-02-01

    The aim of the study was to develop a newly devised child observation sheet (COS-5) as a scoring sheet, based on the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS), for use in the developmental evaluation of 5-year-old children, especially focusing on children with autistic features, and to verify its validity. Seventy-six children were studied. The children were recruited among participants of the Japan Children's Cohort Study, a research program implemented by the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) from 2004 to 2009. The developmental evaluation procedure was performed by doctors, clinical psychologists, and public health nurses. The COS-5 was also partly based on the Kyoto Scale of Psychological Development 2001 (Kyoto Scale 2001). Further, the Developmental Disorders Screening Questionnaire for 5-Years-Olds, PDD-Autism Society Japan Rating Scale (PARS), doctor interview questions and neurological examination for 5-year-old children, and the Draw-a-Man Test (DAM) were used as evaluation scales. Eighteen (25.4%) children were rated as Suspected, including Suspected PDD, Suspected ADHD and Suspected MR. The COS-5 was suggested to be valid with favorable reliability (α=0.89) and correlation with other evaluation scales. The COS-5 may be useful, with the following advantages: it can be performed within a shorter time frame; it facilitates the maintenance of observation quality; it facilitates sharing information with other professions; and it is reliable to identify the autistic features of 5-year-old children. In order to verify its wider applications including the screening of infants (18months to 3years old) by adjusting the items of younger age, additional study is needed.

  13. Esthetic restorations: observations and insights gained over a 5-year period demonstrated with three case reports.

    PubMed

    Obama, Tadakazu

    2007-01-01

    This article presents two prosthodontically treated patient cases that were observed over a period of at least 5 years after treatment. The evaluation, diagnosis, treatment planning, and treatment stages were critically reviewed and reassessed from different perspectives. The conclusions drawn from this evaluation were subsequently implemented in a third clinical case. To ensure the long-term success of a restoration, certain biologic and mechanical principles must be observed, and the appropriate prosthodontic treatment must be chosen accordingly.

  14. Prevalence and Factors Associated with Anemia among Children under 5 Years of Age—Uganda, 2009

    PubMed Central

    Menon, Manoj P.; Yoon, Steven S.

    2015-01-01

    Anemia in children under 5 years of age, defined by the World Health Organization as a hemoglobin concentration < 11 g/dL, is a global public health problem. According to the 2006 Demographic Health Survey, the prevalence of anemia among children under five in Uganda was 72% in 2006. The 2009 Uganda Malaria Indicator Survey was conducted in late 2009 and revealed that over 60% of children less than 5 years of age were anemic and that over half of children tested positive for malaria via a rapid diagnostic test. Children with concomitant malaria infection, and in households without any type of mosquito net were more likely to be anemic, confirming that children under 5 years, are vulnerable to both the threat of malaria and anemia and the beneficial effect of malaria prevention tools. However, prevention and treatment of other factors associated with the etiology of anemia (e.g., iron deficiency) are likely necessary to combat the toll of anemia in Uganda. PMID:26055748

  15. Psychological distress and the development of hypertension over 5 years in black South Africans.

    PubMed

    Schutte, Aletta E; Ware, Lisa J; Huisman, Hugo W; Fourie, Carla M T; Greeff, Minrie; Khumalo, Tumi; Wissing, Marie P

    2015-02-01

    Alarming increases in the incidence of hypertension in many low- and middle-income countries are related to alcohol overuse. It is unclear whether alcohol overuse is a symptom of psychological distress. The authors assessed psychological distress in Africans and its relationship with a 5-year change in blood pressure (BP), independent of alcohol intake. The authors followed 107 Africans with optimal BP (≤120/80 mm Hg) (aged 35-75 years) over 5 years. Alcohol intake (self-report and serum γ-glutamyl transferase) and nonspecific psychological distress (Kessler Screening Scale for Psychological Distress [K6]) were assessed. The K6 predicted hypertension development (P=.019), and its individual component "nervous" increased a participant's risk two-fold to become hypertensive (hazard ratio, 2.00 [1.23-3.26]). By entering K6 and γ-glutamyl transferase into multivariable-adjusted regression models for change in systolic BP, both were independently associated with change in systolic BP. Psychological distress and scoring high on being nervous predicted the development of hypertension over 5 years, independent of alcohol intake.

  16. Hypoadiponectinemia As an Independent Predictor for the Progression of Carotid Atherosclerosis: A 5-Year Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Hui, Elaine; Xu, Aimin; Chow, Wing-Sun; Lee, Paul C.H.; Fong, Carol H.Y.; Cheung, Stephen C.W.; Tse, Hung Fat; Chau, Ming-Tak; Cheung, Bernard M.Y.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background: Hypoadiponectinemia predicts the development of diabetes and hypertension, both being potent atherosclerotic risk factors. Whether adiponectin predicts the progression of early atherosclerosis remains unclear. In this 5-year prospective study, we examined the relationship between serum adiponectin and carotid intima media thickness (CIMT), a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. Methods: A total of 265 subjects from the population-based Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study, with no known cardiovascular disease, underwent CIMT measurement at baseline and at 5 years. Results: In all, 129 men and 136 women, aged 54.6±12.3 years, were studied. Median CIMT at baseline was 0.63 mm (interquartile range 0.52–0.73 mm) and increased to 0.67 mm (0.56–0.78 mm) after 5 years (P<0.001). CIMT increment correlated with baseline adiponectin, age, and smoking (all P<0.05) and baseline CIMT (P<0.001), but not with sex, fasting glucose, lipid profiles, hypertension, or diabetes. In multiple linear regression analysis, baseline serum adiponectin level was an independent predictor of CIMT increment β (standardized beta)=−0.17, P=0.015], after adjusting for age, smoking, baseline CIMT, hypertension, body mass index, fasting glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides. Conclusion: Hypoadiponectinemia predicted CIMT progression, independent of known predictive factors such as age, smoking, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension. PMID:25211296

  17. Immunologic memory 5 years after meningococcal A/C conjugate vaccination in infancy.

    PubMed

    MacLennan, J; Obaro, S; Deeks, J; Lake, D; Elie, C; Carlone, G; Moxon, E R; Greenwood, B

    2001-01-01

    Infant vaccination with meningococcal conjugates may provide long-term protection against disease. Antibody levels and immunologic memory were assessed in 5-year-old Gambian children who received meningococcal A/C conjugate vaccination (MenA/C) in infancy. At 2 years, they were randomized to receive a booster of MenA/C (conjugate group), meningococcal A/C polysaccharide (MPS group), or inactivated polio vaccine (IPV group). All groups were revaccinated with 10 microg MPS at 5 years of age, as were 39 previously unvaccinated age-matched control subjects. Before revaccination, titers were higher in the conjugate and MPS groups than in control subjects (P<.001); titers for the IPV group were similar to those for control subjects. Ten days after revaccination, the conjugate and IPV groups had similar serogroup C serum bactericidal antibody titers (3421 vs. 2790, respectively). These levels were significantly higher than those in the MPS (426) and control (485) groups (P<.001). Thus, immunologic memory was sustained for > or =5 years; however, MPS challenge at 2 years interfered with a subsequent memory response.

  18. Endocrine dysfunction following traumatic brain injury: a 5-year follow-up nationwide-based study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Wei-Hsun; Chen, Pau-Chung; Wang, Ting-Chung; Kuo, Ting-Yu; Cheng, Chun-Yu; Yang, Yao-Hsu

    2016-01-01

    Post-traumatic endocrine dysfunction is a complication of traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, there is lack of long-term follow-up and large sample size studies. This study included patients suffering from TBI registered in the Health Insurance Database. Endocrine disorders were identified using the ICD codes: 244 (acquired hypothyroidism), 253 (pituitary dysfunction), 255 (disorders of the adrenal glands), 258 (polyglandular dysfunction), and 259 (other endocrine disorders) with at least three outpatient visits within 1 year or one admission diagnosis. Overall, 156,945 insured subjects were included in the final analysis. The 1- and 5-year incidence rates of post-traumatic endocrinopathies were 0.4% and 2%, respectively. The risks of developing a common endocrinopathy (p < 0.001) or pituitary dysfunction (P < 0.001) were significantly higher in patients with a TBI history. Patients with a skull bone fracture had a higher risk of developing pituitary dysfunction at the 1-year follow up (p value < 0.001). At the 5-year follow up, the association between intracranial hemorrhage and pituitary dysfunction (p value: 0.002) was significant. The risk of developing endocrine dysfunction after TBI increased during the entire 5-year follow-up period. Skull bone fracture and intracranial hemorrhage may be associated with short and long-term post-traumatic pituitary dysfunction, respectively. PMID:27608606

  19. Trends in net survival from esophageal cancer in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

    PubMed

    Launoy, Guy; Bossard, Nadine; Castro, Clara; Manfredi, Sylvain

    2017-01-01

    Esophageal cancer represents a major clinical challenge because of its poor prognosis. The aim of the SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the net survival from esophageal cancer between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland) and report the trends in net survival and the dynamics of excess mortality rates (EMRs) up to 5 years after diagnosis. The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. First, net survival was studied over the period 2000-2004 using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analyses, the study period was specific to each country. The results were reported from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. These trend analyses were carried out using a flexible excess rate modeling strategy. There were some differences between countries in age-standardized net survival (2000-2004). The 5-year net survival ranged between 9 (Spain) and 21% (Belgium). The small increase in net survival from 1992 and 2004 was mostly observed at ages 55 and 65, but was less marked at age 75. There was a slight decrease in EMR between 1992 and 2004 until ∼24 months after diagnosis. Beyond this period, the decrease in the EMR was moderate and the same in all countries irrespective of the year of diagnosis. Some improvement in the 5-year net survival was observed in all countries limited to the 24 months after diagnosis. However, survival differences between countries persisted. Further improvement is expected from innovative treatments.

  20. Minimum 5-year Follow-up Results of Minimally Invasive Total Knee Arthroplasty Using Mini-Keel Modular Tibial Implant

    PubMed Central

    Yoo, Ju-Hyung; Park, Byoung-Kyu; Han, Chang-Dong; Oh, Hyun-Cheol

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the minimum 5-year mid-term clinical and radiological results of minimally invasive surgery total knee arthroplasty (MIS-TKA) using a mini-keel modular tibia component. Materials and Methods We retrospectively evaluated 254 patients (361 cases) who underwent MIS-TKA between 2005 and 2006. The latest clinical and radiological assessments were done in 168 cases that had been followed on an outpatient basis for more than 5 postoperative years. Clinical results were assessed using the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) score and Knee Society score. Radiological evaluation included measurements of knee alignment. Results The average postoperative knee range of motion and HSS score were 134.3°±12.4° and 92.7°±7.0°, respectively. The average postoperative femorotibial angle and tibial component alignment angle were 5.2°±1.7° valgus and 90.2°±1.6°, respectively. The average tibial component posterior inclination was 4.8°±2.1°. The percentage of cases with tibial component alignment angle of 90°±3° was 96.1%, and that with the femorotibial angle of 6°±3° valgus was 94.0%. Radiolucent lines were observed in 20 cases (12.0%): around the femur, tibia, and patella in 14 cases, 10 cases, and 1 case, respectively. However, they were less than 2 mm and non-progressive in all cases. The survival rate was 99.4% and there was no implant-related revision. Conclusions MIS-TKA using a mini-keel modular tibial plate showed satisfactory results, a high survival rate, and excellent clinical and radiological results in the mid-term follow-up. PMID:25229044

  1. Lung cancer survival in Norway, 1997-2011: from nihilism to optimism.

    PubMed

    Nilssen, Yngvar; Strand, Trond Eirik; Fjellbirkeland, Lars; Bartnes, Kristian; Møller, Bjørn

    2016-01-01

    We examine changes in survival and patient-, tumour- and treatment-related factors among resected and nonresected lung cancer patients, and identify subgroups with the largest and smallest survival improvements.National population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway, Statistics Norway and the Norwegian Patient Register were linked for lung cancer patients diagnosed during 1997-2011. The 1- and 5-year relative survival were estimated, and Cox proportional hazard regression, adjusted for selected patient characteristics, was used to assess prognostic factors for survival in lung cancer patients overall and stratified by resection status.We identified 34 157 patients with lung cancer. The proportion of histological diagnoses accompanied by molecular genetics testing increased from 0% to 26%, while those accompanied by immunohistochemistry increased from 8% to 26%. The 1-year relative survival among nonresected and resected patients increased from 21.7% to 34.2% and 75.4% to 91.5%, respectively. The improved survival remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, stage and histology. The largest improvements in survival occurred among resected and adenocarcinoma patients, while patients ≥80 years experienced the smallest increase.Lung cancer survival has increased considerably in Norway. The explanation is probably multifactorial, including improved attitude towards diagnostic work-up and treatment, and more accurate diagnostic testing that allows for improved selection for resection and improved treatment options.

  2. Development of the Intrinsic Language Network in Preschool Children from Ages 3 to 5 Years

    PubMed Central

    Xiao, Yaqiong; Brauer, Jens; Lauckner, Mark; Zhai, Hongchang; Jia, Fucang; Margulies, Daniel S.; Friederici, Angela D.

    2016-01-01

    Resting state studies of spontaneous fluctuations in the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood oxygen level dependent signal have shown great potential in mapping the intrinsic functional connectivity of the human brain underlying cognitive functions. The aim of the present study was to explore the developmental changes in functional networks of the developing human brain exemplified with the language network in typically developing preschool children. To this end, resting-sate fMRI data were obtained from native Chinese children at ages of 3 and 5 years, 15 in each age group. Resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) was analyzed for four regions of interest; these are the left and right anterior superior temporal gyrus (aSTG), left posterior superior temporal gyrus (pSTG), and left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). The comparison of these RSFC maps between 3- and 5-year-olds revealed that RSFC decreases in the right aSTG and increases in the left hemisphere between aSTG seed and IFG, between pSTG seed and IFG, as well as between IFG seed and posterior superior temporal sulcus. In a subsequent analysis, functional asymmetry of the language network seeding in aSTG, pSTG and IFG was further investigated. The results showed an increase of left lateralization in both RSFC of pSTG and of IFG from ages 3 to 5 years. The IFG showed a leftward lateralized trend in 3-year-olds, while pSTG demonstrated rightward asymmetry in 5-year-olds. These findings suggest clear developmental trajectories of the language network between 3- and 5-year-olds revealed as a function of age, characterized by increasing long-range connections and dynamic hemispheric lateralization with age. Our study provides new insights into the developmental changes of a well-established functional network in young children and also offers a basis for future cross-culture and cross-age studies of the resting-state language network. PMID:27812160

  3. Development of the Intrinsic Language Network in Preschool Children from Ages 3 to 5 Years.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yaqiong; Brauer, Jens; Lauckner, Mark; Zhai, Hongchang; Jia, Fucang; Margulies, Daniel S; Friederici, Angela D

    2016-01-01

    Resting state studies of spontaneous fluctuations in the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood oxygen level dependent signal have shown great potential in mapping the intrinsic functional connectivity of the human brain underlying cognitive functions. The aim of the present study was to explore the developmental changes in functional networks of the developing human brain exemplified with the language network in typically developing preschool children. To this end, resting-sate fMRI data were obtained from native Chinese children at ages of 3 and 5 years, 15 in each age group. Resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) was analyzed for four regions of interest; these are the left and right anterior superior temporal gyrus (aSTG), left posterior superior temporal gyrus (pSTG), and left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). The comparison of these RSFC maps between 3- and 5-year-olds revealed that RSFC decreases in the right aSTG and increases in the left hemisphere between aSTG seed and IFG, between pSTG seed and IFG, as well as between IFG seed and posterior superior temporal sulcus. In a subsequent analysis, functional asymmetry of the language network seeding in aSTG, pSTG and IFG was further investigated. The results showed an increase of left lateralization in both RSFC of pSTG and of IFG from ages 3 to 5 years. The IFG showed a leftward lateralized trend in 3-year-olds, while pSTG demonstrated rightward asymmetry in 5-year-olds. These findings suggest clear developmental trajectories of the language network between 3- and 5-year-olds revealed as a function of age, characterized by increasing long-range connections and dynamic hemispheric lateralization with age. Our study provides new insights into the developmental changes of a well-established functional network in young children and also offers a basis for future cross-culture and cross-age studies of the resting-state language network.

  4. Evaluation of acute pyelonephritis with DMSA scans in children presenting after the age of 5 years.

    PubMed

    Ataei, Neamatollah; Madani, Abbas; Habibi, Reza; Khorasani, Mosa

    2005-10-01

    It is generally believed that infants are more susceptible to development of renal scarring after pyelonephritis than children over 5 years old. This view has led to differences in investigations and treatment according to age. The aim of this prospective study was to assess the occurrence of renal parenchymal lesion in children over 5 years admitted with a first-time symptomatic urinary tract infection (UTI). Between October 2000 and April 2002, 52 children aged over 5 years who were admitted to our department with probable acute pyelonephritis (APN) and a positive urine culture were included in this study. All children received antibiotics for 14 days. During the acute phase of infection, scintigraphy with technetium-99m-labeled dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) and ultrasonography (US) were done. Voiding cystourethrography (VCUG) was performed in all children early in the course of the illness, generally within 5-7 days of hospitalization. When scintigraphy showed renal parenchymal changes, repeat scintigraphy was done after at least 3 months to assess the progression of renal abnormalities. Of the 52 children with a first-time documented pyelonephritis, cortical scintigraphy showed renal lesion in 41 children (78.8%). US was normal in all children with normal renal scintigraphy, while it detected renal abnormalities in 16 of the 41 (39 %) with abnormal scintigraphy (p <0.0001). Topographic analysis of the 165 focal lesions showed that 42.4% were localized to the upper poles, 17.5% to the middle third, and 40% to the lower poles of the kidneys. Repeat scintigraphy showed persistent lesions corresponding to those on the initial scan in nine (28.2%) of the 32 children. Renal lesions had partly regressed in 23 (71.8%) of the patients who underwent repeat scintigraphy. Vesicoureteral reflux was observed in 13.4% of kidneys and renal parenchymal abnormalities were identified in 71.4% and 72.2% of renal units, respectively, with and without reflux ( p >0.05). In

  5. Similarity of the CDC and WHO weight-for-length growth charts in predicting risk of obesity at age 5 years.

    PubMed

    Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Gillman, Matthew W; Oken, Emily; Kleinman, Ken; Taveras, Elsie M

    2012-06-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) 2006 weight-for-length (WFL) or BMI growth charts are now recommended as the new standard for children under 24 months. The objective of this study was to examine associations of ever being overweight during 1-24 months, based on the older Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and WHO cutpoints, with risk of obesity at age 5 years. From well-child visits to a Massachusetts multi-site group practice during 1980-2008, we studied 15,488 children with length/height and weight measurements at 1, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months, and at 5 years. The main exposures were ever being overweight during 1-24 months using each of three cutpoints: CDC WFL ≥ 95th percentile, WHO WFL or BMI ≥ 97.7th percentile. The main outcome was obesity at 5 years (CDC BMI ≥ 95th percentile). We calculated multivariable odds ratios (ORs), adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and year. At 5 years, 10.8% of participants were obese. During 1-24 months, 21.3, 18.3, and 20.2% were ever overweight using CDC WFL, WHO WFL, and WHO BMI cutpoints, respectively. ORs (95% confidence interval (CI)) for associations of ever being overweight during 1-24 months with obesity at 5 years were 6.0 (5.4, 6.6), 6.3 (5.7, 7.0), and 6.0 (5.4, 6.7), respectively. Ever being overweight in the first 2 years of life is a strong predictor of obesity at 5 years. CDC WFL, WHO WFL, and WHO BMI cutpoints for overweight in early childhood provided similar estimates of later obesity risk.

  6. Dietary influences on survival after ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Nagle, Christina M; Purdie, David M; Webb, Penelope M; Green, Adèle; Harvey, Philip W; Bain, Christopher J

    2003-08-20

    We evaluated the effects of various food groups and micronutrients in the diet on survival among women who originally participated in a population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer conducted across 3 Australian states between 1990 and 1993. This analysis included 609 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, primarily because there was negligible mortality in women with borderline tumors. The women's usual diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Deaths in the cohort were identified using state-based cancer registries and the Australian National Death Index (NDI). Crude 5-year survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier technique, and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from Cox regression models. After adjusting for important confounding factors, a survival advantage was observed for those who reported higher intake of vegetables in general (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.99, p-value trend 0.01 for the highest third, compared to the lowest third), and cruciferous vegetables in particular (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.98, p-value trend 0.03), and among women in the upper third of intake of vitamin E (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.58-1.01, p-value trend 0.04). Inverse associations were also seen with protein (p-value trend 0.09), red meat (p-value trend 0.06) and white meat (p-value trend 0.07), and modest positive trends (maximum 30% excess) with lactose (p-value trend 0.04), calcium and dairy products. Although much remains to be learned about the influence of nutritional factors after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer, our study suggests the possibility that a diet high in vegetable intake may help improve survival.

  7. The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

    SciTech Connect

    Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

    1999-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

  8. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XIV; Appraisal of the Relationship between Tag Detection Efficiency at Bonneville Dam and the Precision in Estuarine and Marine Survival Estimates on Returning PIT Tagged Chinook Salmon, 2000 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Perez-Comas, Jose A.; Skalski, John R.

    2000-07-01

    In the advent of the installation of a PIT-tag interrogation system in the Cascades Island fish ladder at Bonneville Dam, this report provides guidance on the anticipated precision of salmonid estuarine and marine survival estimates, for various levels of system-wide adult detection probability at Bonneville Dam. Precision was characterized by the standard error of the survival estimates and the coefficient of variation of the survival estimates. The anticipated precision of salmonid estuarine and marine survival estimates was directly proportional to the number of PIT-tagged smolts released and to the system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam, as well as to the in-river juvenile survival above Lower Granite Dam. Moreover, for a given release size and system-wide adult detection efficiency, higher estuarine and marine survivals did also produce more precise survival estimates. With a system-wide detection probability of P{sub BA} = 1 at Bonneville Dam, the anticipated CVs for the estuarine and marine survival ranged between 41 and 88% with release sizes of 10,000 smolts. Only with the 55,000 smolts being released from sites close to Lower Granite Dam and under high estuarine and marine survival, could CVs of 20% be attained with system detection efficiencies of less than perfect detection (i.e., P{sub BA} < 1).

  9. Etiology and Incidence of Viral Acute Respiratory Infections among Refugees Aged 5 Years and Older in Hagadera Camp, Dadaab, Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Mohamed, Gedi A.; Ahmed, Jamal A.; Marano, Nina; Mohamed, Abdinoor; Moturi, Edna; Burton, Wagacha; Otieno, Samora; Fields, Barry; Montgomery, Joel; Kabugi, Willy; Musa, Hashim; Cookson, Susan T.

    2015-01-01

    We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention–Kenya Medical Research Institute Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) Surveillance System data to estimate severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) hospitalization rates, viral etiology, and associated complaints of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and SARI conditions among those aged 5 years and older in Hagadera, Dadaab refugee camp, Kenya, for 2010–2012. A total of 471 patients aged ≥ 5 years met the case definition for ILI or SARI. SARI hospitalization rates per 10,000 person-years were 14.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 9.1, 22.2) for those aged 5–14 years; 3.4 (95% CI = 1.6, 7.2) for those aged 15–24 year; and 3.8 (95% CI = 1.6, 7.2) for those aged ≥ 25 years. Persons between the ages of 5 and 14 years had 3.5 greater odds to have been hospitalized as a result of SARI than those aged ≥ 25 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.5, P < 0.001). Among the 419 samples tested, 169 (40.3%) were positive for one or more virus. Of those samples having viruses, 36.9% had influenza A; 29.9% had adenovirus; 20.2% had influenza B; and 14.4% had parainfluenza 1, 2, or 3. Muscle/joint pain was associated with influenza A (P = 0.002), whereas headache was associated with influenza B (P = 0.019). ARIs were responsible for a substantial disease burden in Hagadera camp. PMID:26458776

  10. Durability of response to vaccination against viral hepatitis A in HIV-infected patients: a 5-year observation.

    PubMed

    Jabłonowska, E; Kuydowicz, J

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of total antibodies to hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV-T) in the group of HIV-positive adults in Lodz region of Poland, and to evaluate the response and long-term immunity after vaccination against hepatitis A virus. In the group of 234 HIV-infected patients, 72 persons (30.8%) were anti-HAV-T positive (>20 IU/L). In multivariate analysis, two independent factors associated with the presence of anti-HAV-T were identified: the age of patients (OR = 1.07) and the presence of antibodies to hepatitis C virus (OR = 2.87). Vaccination was completed in 83 patients. Good response (anti-HAV-T >20 IU/L one month after the booster dose) was obtained in 79.5% of patients. In patients with CD4 >200 cells/µL in multivariate analysis only presence of antibodies to hepatitis C virus was a prognostic factor for the response to vaccination (OR = 0.13). Among responders available for the follow-up, 82% (50 out of 61) had detectable anti-HAV-T at 1 year and 75.5% (37 out of 49) at 5 years. Our results demonstrate that most of the studied HIV-positive patients were susceptible to hepatitis A virus infection. Most HIV-infected adults with high CD4 counts had a durable response even up to 5 years after vaccination. Patients with a HIV/hepatitis C virus coinfection displayed a worse response to vaccination.

  11. Etiology and Incidence of Viral Acute Respiratory Infections Among Refugees Aged 5 Years and Older in Hagadera Camp, Dadaab, Kenya.

    PubMed

    Mohamed, Gedi A; Ahmed, Jamal A; Marano, Nina; Mohamed, Abdinoor; Moturi, Edna; Burton, Wagacha; Otieno, Samora; Fields, Barry; Montgomery, Joel; Kabugi, Willy; Musa, Hashim; Cookson, Susan T

    2015-12-01

    We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-Kenya Medical Research Institute Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) Surveillance System data to estimate severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) hospitalization rates, viral etiology, and associated complaints of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and SARI conditions among those aged 5 years and older in Hagadera, Dadaab refugee camp, Kenya, for 2010-2012. A total of 471 patients aged ≥ 5 years met the case definition for ILI or SARI. SARI hospitalization rates per 10,000 person-years were 14.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 9.1, 22.2) for those aged 5-14 years; 3.4 (95% CI = 1.6, 7.2) for those aged 15-24 year; and 3.8 (95% CI = 1.6, 7.2) for those aged ≥ 25 years. Persons between the ages of 5 and 14 years had 3.5 greater odds to have been hospitalized as a result of SARI than those aged ≥ 25 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.5, P < 0.001). Among the 419 samples tested, 169 (40.3%) were positive for one or more virus. Of those samples having viruses, 36.9% had influenza A; 29.9% had adenovirus; 20.2% had influenza B; and 14.4% had parainfluenza 1, 2, or 3. Muscle/joint pain was associated with influenza A (P = 0.002), whereas headache was associated with influenza B (P = 0.019). ARIs were responsible for a substantial disease burden in Hagadera camp.

  12. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVIII: Survival and Transportation Effects of Migrating Snake River Wild Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates From 1996-2004 and Comparison to Hatchery Results. Draft.

    SciTech Connect

    Buchanan, Rebecca A.; Skalski, John R.; Broms, Kristin

    2008-12-03

    The combined juvenile and adult detection histories of PIT-tagged wild salmonids migrating through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) were analyzed using the ROSTER (River-Ocean Survival and Transportation Effects Routine) statistical release-recapture model. This model, implemented by software Program ROSTER, was used to estimate survival on large temporal and spatial scales for PIT-tagged wild spring and summer Chinook salmon and steelhead released in the Snake River Basin upstream of Lower Granite Dam from 1996 to 2004. In addition, annual results from wild salmonids were compared with results from hatchery salmonids, which were presented in a previous report in this series (Buchanan, R. A., Skalski, J. R., Lady, J. L., Westhagen, P., Griswold, J., and Smith, S. 2007, 'Survival and Transportation Effects for Migrating Snake River Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates from 1996-2003', Technical report, Bonneville Power Administration, Project 1991-051-00). These results are reported here. Annual estimates of the smolt-to-adult return ratio (SAR), juvenile inriver survival from Lower Granite to Bonneville, the ocean return probability from Bonneville to Bonneville, and adult upriver survival from Bonneville to Lower Granite are reported. Annual estimates of transport-inriver (T/I) ratios and differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) are reported on a dam-specific basis for release years with sufficient numbers of wild PIT-tagged smolts transported. Transportation effects are estimated only for dams where at least 1,000 tagged wild smolts were transported from a given upstream release group. Because few wild Chinook salmon and steelhead tagged upstream of Lower Granite Dam were transported before the 2003 release year, T/I and D were estimated only for the 2003 and 2004 release years. Performance measures include age-1-ocean adult returns for steelhead, but not for Chinook salmon. Spring and summer Chinook salmon release groups

  13. Pranlukast reduces asthma exacerbations during autumn especially in 1- to 5-year-old boys

    PubMed Central

    Campos Alberto, Eduardo; Suzuki, Shuichi; Sato, Yoshinori; Hoshioka, Akira; Abe, Hiroki; Saito, Kimiyuki; Tsubaki, Toshikazu; Haraki, Mana; Sawa, Akiko; Nakayama, Yoshio; Kojima, Hiroyuki; Shigeta, Midori; Yamaide, Fumiya; Kohno, Yoichi; Shimojo, Naoki

    2017-01-01

    Background Leukotriene receptor antagonists have been used to prevent virus-induced asthma exacerbations in autumn. Its efficacy, however, might differ with age and sex. Objective This study aimed to investigate whether pranlukast added to usual asthma therapy in Japanese children during autumn, season associated with the peak of asthma, reduces asthma exacerbations. It was also evaluated the effect of age and sex on pranlukast's efficacy. Methods A total of 121 asthmatic children aged 1 to 14 years were randomly assigned to receive regular pranlukast or not according to sex, and were divided in 2 age groups, 1–5 years and 6–14 years. The primary outcome was total asthma score calculated during 8 weeks by using a sticker calendar related to the days in which a child experienced a worsening of asthma symptoms. This open study lasted 60 days from September 15 to November 14, 2007. Results Significant differences in pranlukast efficacy were observed between sex and age groups. Boys aged 1 to 5 years had the lower total asthma score at 8 weeks (p = 0.002), and experienced fewer cold episodes (p = 0.007). There were no significant differences between pranlukast and control group in total asthma score at 8 weeks (p = 0.35), and in the days in which a child experienced a worsening of asthma symptoms (p = 0.67). Conclusion There was a substantial benefit of adding pranlukast to usual therapy in asthmatic children, especially in boys aged 1 to 5 years, during autumn season. PMID:28154801

  14. 5-Year Longitudinal Follow-up after Retropubic and Transobturator Midurethral Slings

    PubMed Central

    Kenton, Kimberly; Stoddard, Anne M.; Zyczynski, Halina; Albo, Michael; Rickey, Leslie; Norton, Peggy; Wai, Clifford; Kraus, Stephen R.; Sirls, Larry T.; Kusek, John W.; Litman, Heather J.; Chang, Robert P.; Richter, Holly E.

    2014-01-01

    Background Few studies have characterized longer-term outcomes after retropubic and transobturator midurethral slings. Methods Women completing 2-year participation in a randomized equivalence trial who had not received surgical retreatment for stress urinary incontinence were invited to participate in a 5-year observational cohort. The primary outcome, treatment success, was defined as no retreatment or self-reported stress incontinence symptoms. Secondary outcomes included urinary symptoms and quality of life, satisfaction, sexual function and adverse events. Results 404 of 597 (68%) women from the original trial enrolled. Five-years after surgical treatment, success was 7.9% greater in women assigned to retropubic-sling compared to transobturator-sling (51.3% vs 43.4%, 95% CI −1.4%, 17.2%) not meeting pre-specified criteria for equivalence. Satisfaction decreased over 5-years, but remained high and similar between arms (79%, retropubic-sling vs 85%, transobturator-sling groups, p=0.15). Urinary symptoms and quality of life worsened over time (p<0.001), and women with retropubic-sling reported greater urinary urgency (P=0.001), more negative quality of life impact (p=0.02), and worse sexual function (P=0.001). There was no difference in proportion of women experiencing at least 1 adverse event (p=0.17). Seven new mesh erosions were noted (retropubic-sling-3, transobturator-sling-4). Conclusion Treatment success declined over 5-years for retropubic and transobturator-slings and did not meet pre-specified criteria for equivalence with retropubic demonstrating a slight benefit. However, satisfaction remained high in both arms. Women undergoing transobturator-sling reported more sustained improvement in urinary symptoms and sexual function. New mesh erosions occurred in both arms over time, although at a similarly low rate. PMID:25158274

  15. Intrauterine Adiposity and BMI in 4- to 5-Year-Old Offspring from Diabetic Pregnancies

    PubMed Central

    Hammoud, Nurah M.; de Valk, Harold W.; Biesma, Douwe H.; Visser, Gerhard H.A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Pregnancies complicated by maternal diabetes are associated with disproportionate intrauterine growth that subsequently may lead to pediatric adiposity. Objectives We investigated whether disproportionate intrauterine growth leads to differences in BMI in 4- to 5-year-old offspring from pregnancies complicated by type 1 (ODM1), type 2 (ODM2), or gestational diabetes (OGDM). Methods Ultrasound data of fetal head-to-abdominal circumference (HC/AC) ratio obtained between 32 and 36 weeks of gestational age were related to offspring anthropometrics that were retrieved from infant welfare centers. Results Data from 27 ODM1, 22 ODM2, and 24 OGDM were obtained. Ultrasound measurements for the HC/AC ratio were performed at a mean of 33-34 weeks, with a mean Z-score of the HC/AC ratio of -0.801, -0.879, and 0.017 in ODM1, ODM2, and OGDM. Mean BMI SDS was highest in ODM2 as compared to ODM1 and OGDM. In ODM1 there was a negative correlation between HC/AC ratio and BMI SDS at the ages of 4 and 5 years, but not in ODM2 or OGDM. The birth weight Z-score was positively correlated to BMI SDS in ODM2 and OGDM. Conclusion Disproportionate intrauterine growth, expressed as the HC/AC ratio, was inversely related with BMI SDS in ODM1 at the ages of 4-5 years, but not in ODM2 or OGDM. Weight and maybe obesity in ODM1 offspring are likely to be related to intrauterine adiposity, whereas overweight in ODM2 and OGDM offspring seems more related to other factors such as birth weight centile, maternal obesity, and altered lifestyle factors during childhood. PMID:27788515

  16. Association between depression in carers and malnutrition in children aged 6 months to 5 years

    PubMed Central

    Ganiyu, Adewale B.; Firth, Jacqueline A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Childhood malnutrition is an important risk factor for child mortality and underlies close to 50% of child deaths worldwide. Previous studies have found an association between maternal depression and child malnutrition, but it is not known whether this association exists in Botswana. In addition, previous studies excluded non-maternal primary caregivers (PCGs). It is unclear whether the association between primary caregiver depression and child malnutrition remains when non-maternal PCGs are included. Aim The aim of this study was to determine if there is an association between PCG depression and malnutrition in children aged between 6 months and 5 years in Mahalapye, Botswana. Setting The study was conducted in the child welfare clinics of Xhosa and Airstrip clinics, two primary health care facilities in Mahalapye, Botswana. Methods This was a case control study. Cases were malnourished children aged between 6 months and 5 years, and controls were non-malnourished children matched for age and gender. The outcome of interest was depression in the PCGs of the cases and controls, which was assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ 9), a depression screening tool. Results From a sample of 171 children, 84 of whom were malnourished, we found that the malnourished children were significantly more likely to have depressed PCGs (odds ratio = 4.33; 95% CI: 1.89, 9.89) than non-malnourished children in the 6-month to 5-year age group; the PCGs of malnourished children also had lower educational status. Conclusion This study found a significant association between PCG depression and child malnutrition. PMID:28155288

  17. Global strategy for the diagnosis and management of asthma in children 5 years and younger.

    PubMed

    Pedersen, Soren Erik; Hurd, Suzanne S; Lemanske, Robert F; Becker, Allan; Zar, Heather J; Sly, Peter D; Soto-Quiroz, Manuel; Wong, Gary; Bateman, Eric D

    2011-01-01

    Asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood and the leading cause of childhood morbidity from chronic disease as measured by school absences, emergency department visits, and hospitalisation. During the past two decades, many scientific advances have improved our understanding of asthma and our ability to manage and control it effectively. However, in children 5 years and younger, the clinical symptoms of asthma are variable and non-specific. Furthermore, neither airflow limitation nor airway inflammation, the main pathologic hallmarks of the condition, can be assessed routinely in this age group. For this reason, to aid in the diagnosis of asthma in young children, a symptoms-only descriptive approach that includes the definition of various wheezing phenotypes has been recommended. In 1993, the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) was implemented to develop a network of individuals, organizations, and public health officials to disseminate information about the care of patients with asthma while at the same time assuring a mechanism to incorporate the results of scientific investigations into asthma care. Since then, GINA has developed and regularly revised a Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention. Publications based on the Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention have been translated into many different languages to promote international collaboration and dissemination of information. In this report, Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention in Children 5 Years and Younger, an effort has been made to present the special challenges that must be taken into account in managing asthma in children during the first 5 years of life, including difficulties with diagnosis, the efficacy and safety of drugs and drug delivery systems, and the lack of data on new therapies. Approaches to these issues will vary among populations in the world based on socioeconomic conditions, genetic diversity, cultural beliefs, and differences in

  18. Development of allocentric spatial memory abilities in children from 18 months to 5 years of age.

    PubMed

    Ribordy, Farfalla; Jabès, Adeline; Banta Lavenex, Pamela; Lavenex, Pierre

    2013-02-01

    Episodic memories for autobiographical events that happen in unique spatiotemporal contexts are central to defining who we are. Yet, before 2 years of age, children are unable to form or store episodic memories for recall later in life, a phenomenon known as infantile amnesia. Here, we studied the development of allocentric spatial memory, a fundamental component of episodic memory, in two versions of a real-world memory task requiring 18 month- to 5-year-old children to search for rewards hidden beneath cups distributed in an open-field arena. Whereas children 25-42-months-old were not capable of discriminating three reward locations among 18 possible locations in absence of local cues marking these locations, children older than 43 months found the reward locations reliably. These results support previous findings suggesting that allocentric spatial memory, if present, is only rudimentary in children under 3.5 years of age. However, when tested with only one reward location among four possible locations, children 25-39-months-old found the reward reliably in absence of local cues, whereas 18-23-month-olds did not. Our findings thus show that the ability to form a basic allocentric representation of the environment is present by 2 years of age, and its emergence coincides temporally with the offset of infantile amnesia. However, the ability of children to distinguish and remember closely related spatial locations improves from 2 to 3.5 years of age, a developmental period marked by persistent deficits in long-term episodic memory known as childhood amnesia. These findings support the hypothesis that the differential maturation of distinct hippocampal circuits contributes to the emergence of specific memory processes during early childhood.

  19. Development of aerobic and anaerobic power in adolescent rowers: a 5-year follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Mikulic, P

    2011-12-01

    We aimed to determine whether the physical and physiological superiority of early-maturing rowing athletes, observed at ages 12-13 years, over that of their late-maturing counterparts observed at the same ages, still persists at 17-18 years of age, when all adolescent athletes are expected to have completed pubertal development. We hypothesized that this superiority of early maturers would not be observed at reassessment, as late maturers would have likely "caught up" with their early-maturing peers. Twenty-one male rowers were assessed at age 12.8 ± 0.5 years and again at 17.5 ± 0.5 years (mean ± SD). They were divided into groups of early-maturing and late-maturing rowing athletes based on Tanner's sexual maturity ratings. A two-way repeated-measures MANOVA followed by a series of ANOVAs with one within-subject factor (time) and one between-subject factor (group) indicated significant (P≤0.003) within-subject and between-subjects main effects for lean body mass (LBM), maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max), and mean power (MP). The group × time interaction effects were significant for LBM (P=0.003), VO2max (P=0.004), but not for MP (P=0.171). Over 5 years, early-maturers' advantage dwindled in terms of LBM (+38% to +9%), VO2max (+47% to +9%), and MP (+76% to +15%); however, these differences may still be considered practically relevant. The proposed hypothesis was not supported.

  20. Full term delivery following cryopreservation of human embryos for 7. 5 years.

    PubMed

    Ben-Ozer, S; Vermesh, M

    1999-06-01

    Successful pregnancy in a 44 year old woman is described following the transfer of embryos which were cryopreserved for 7.5 years. The embryos were obtained during a gamete intra-Fallopian transfer (GIFT) procedure in 1989. To our knowledge this is one of the longest published periods of cryopreservation of embryos which has resulted in a healthy baby. This report illustrates the previously presumed viability and normality of human embryos undergoing long-term cryopreservation. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance for advanced reproductive technique programmes and patients to review and update their embryo status.

  1. Clinical treatment of a ruptured temporomandibular joint disc: morphological changes at 5-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Cardinal, Lucas; Porto, Felipe; Agarwal, Sachin; Grossman, Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Osteoarthrosis is a disease that affects the temporomandibular joint (TMJ). This case report chronicles the diagnosis and treatment of a patient for whom this pathological condition was accompanied by a rupture of the articular disc. The patient presented with loud sounds in the left TMJ and an irregular mandibular occlusal plane due to condylar intrusion in the glenoid fossa on the ipsilateral side. A noninvasive treatment was selected. A 4-month follow-up revealed remission of the articular sounds, and tissue regeneration was noted. These improvements remained visible at 5-year follow-up.

  2. Socioeconomic status and changes in body mass from 3 to 5 years

    PubMed Central

    De Spiegelaere, M; Dramaix, M; Hennart, P

    1998-01-01

    The influence of social status on the development of body mass was analysed in a retrospective cohort study of 675 Belgian children monitored between the ages of 3 and 5 years by the preventive medical services in Brussels. At age 3, no association between excess weight and social status was observed. Adiposity rebound before age 5 was inversely related to body mass at age 3 and was independent of social status. The social influences on obesity observed in adolescence cannot be explained by a higher frequency of early adiposity rebound in children of low socioeconomic status.

 PMID:9659099

  3. Angiomyolipoma of donor kidney: Successful transplantation and 5-year follow-up

    PubMed Central

    Gopalakrishnan, N.; Dhanapriya, J.; Sakthirajan, R.; Dineshkumar, T.; Balasubramaniyan, T.; Haris, Md.

    2016-01-01

    Angiomyolipomas (AML) of the kidney are non-encapsulated benign neoplasms with the incidence of 45-80% in patients with tuberous sclerosis and 1-3% in sporadic cases. There are very few case reports in the literature in which kidneys with AML have been used for transplantation. We report here a 27-year-old female patient who received a live related renal transplant from her mother with isolated angiomyolipoma in donor kidney and on follow-up after 5 years, has stable graft function and tumor size. PMID:27051138

  4. Giant pericardial cyst in a 5-year-old child: A rare anomaly

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Sanjay; Jain, Promil; Sen, Rajeev; Rattan, KN; Agarwal, Ruchi; Garg, Shilpa

    2011-01-01

    Pericardial cysts are uncommon congenital abnormalities that occur in the middle mediastinum. Most of these are found incidentally on chest x-rays. The occurrence of pericardial cyst in children is quite rare. It needs to be differentiated from other cystic mediastinal masses. A rare case of pericardial cyst in a 5 year old male child is reported. The child presented with chest pain, cough and fever. The preoperative diagnosis of pericardial cyst was suggestive on echocardiography and CT scan. It was confirmed on histopathology after successful surgical excision. The rarity of this benign mediastinal lesion in children prompted us to report this case. PMID:21677811

  5. Complex venous anomalies: magnetic resonance imaging findings in a 5-year-old boy.

    PubMed

    Hazirolan, Tuncay; Ozkan, Efe; Haliloglu, Mithat; Celiker, Alpay; Balkanci, Ferhun

    2006-10-01

    We report magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of a very unusual venous anomaly case. A 5-year-old boy who had surgical repair of coarctation of the thoracic aorta was referred to our department for evaluation of an enlarged venous structure anterior to the aorta, which had been noted during the surgery. Contrast enhanced dynamic MRI revealed partial anomalous pulmonary venous return to the left azygos vein, double inferior and superior vena cava with the left azygos continuation of the left superior vena cava. The recognition of venous anomalies allows correct planning of surgical and interventional procedures. MRI is a valuable imaging tool providing detailed anatomical information.

  6. Malnutrition among children younger than 5 years-old in conflict zones of Chiapas, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Pérez, Héctor Javier; Hernán, Miguel A; Ríos-González, Adriana; Arana-Cedeño, Marcos; Navarro, Albert; Ford, Douglas; Micek, Mark A; Brentlinger, Paula

    2007-02-01

    We performed a cross-sectional, community-based survey, supplemented by interviews with community leaders in Chiapas, Mexico, to examine the prevalence and predictors of child malnutrition in regions affected by the Zapatista conflict. The prevalence rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 54.1%, 2.9%, and 20.3%, respectively, in 2666 children aged younger than 5 years. Stunting was associated with indigenous ethnicity, poverty, region of residence, and intracommunity division. The results indicate that malnutrition is a serious public health problem in the studied regions.

  7. [Acute cerebellar ataxia in a 5-year-old boy. Clinical warnings].

    PubMed

    Mrozińska, M; Horwath, A; Ostoja-Chrzastowski, W

    1998-01-01

    A case of acute cerebellar ataxia caused by ECHO virus 30.5-year-old boy admitted to the Clinic of Gastroenterology and Nutrition in Warsaw, in September, 1996, complaining of headache, dizziness, weakness, somnolence, dysarthria and an unsteady walk. On neurological examination he had imparied coordination, rombergism, generalized hypotonia. There was no history of exposure to contagious diseases, ear discharge, convulsions, trauma. Parents suggested that the child could have swallowed an unidentified pill--toxicological tests ruled out poisoning. The diagnosis is based on the clinical examination and amplification ECHO virus from CSF.

  8. Malnutrition Among Children Younger Than 5 Years-Old in Conflict Zones of Chiapas, Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Sánchez-Pérez, Héctor Javier; Hernán, Miguel A.; Ríos-González, Adriana; Arana-Cedeño, Marcos; Navarro, Albert; Ford, Douglas; Micek, Mark A.; Brentlinger, Paula

    2007-01-01

    We performed a cross-sectional, community-based survey, supplemented by interviews with community leaders in Chiapas, Mexico, to examine the prevalence and predictors of child malnutrition in regions affected by the Zapatista conflict. The prevalence rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 54.1%, 2.9%, and 20.3%, respectively, in 2666 children aged younger than 5 years. Stunting was associated with indigenous ethnicity, poverty, region of residence, and intracommunity division. The results indicate that malnutrition is a serious public health problem in the studied regions. PMID:17194868

  9. Stage I carcinoma of the endometrium: a 5-year experience utilizing preoperative cesium

    SciTech Connect

    Belinson, J.L.; Spirou, B.; McClure, M.; Badger, G.; Pretorius, R.G.; Roland, T.A.

    1985-03-01

    A treatment protocol for the management of stage I endometrial carcinoma utilizing preoperative cesium is evaluated. One hundred and twelve consecutive patients were treated according to this protocol over a 5-year period. Based on this experience and a literature review a new protocol is recommended. The significant changes include primary surgery without preoperative cesium, primary treatment based on grade without regard to uterine size, modified radical hysterectomy for G3 tumors, pelvic radiotherapy for clear cell carcinoma confined to the pelvis regardless of depth of invasion, cytoxan, adriamycin, and cis-platinum for papillary serous tumors, and postoperative vaginal cuff cesium for G2 and G3 tumors not requiring pelvic radiotherapy.

  10. Infantile fibrosarcoma of ethmoid sinus, misdiagnosed as an adenoid in a 5-year-old child

    PubMed Central

    Geramizadeh, Bita; Khademi, Bijan; Karimi, Mehran; Shekarkhar, Golsa

    2015-01-01

    Infantile fibrosarcoma of head and neck is rare and the presence of this tumor in ethmoid sinus is even more uncommon. To the best of our knowledge, <5 cases have been reported in the last 20 years in the English literature, so far, only one of which has been infantile type in a 15 months old girl. In this case report, we will explain our experience with a rare case of infantile fibrosarcoma originating from ethmoid sinus in a 5-year-old boy who presented with dyspnea and epistaxis. After biopsy, it was diagnosed as fibrosarcoma of sinus origin. PMID:26604519

  11. The performance of inverse probability of treatment weighting and full matching on the propensity score in the presence of model misspecification when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C; Stuart, Elizabeth A

    2015-04-30

    There is increasing interest in estimating the causal effects of treatments using observational data. Propensity-score matching methods are frequently used to adjust for differences in observed characteristics between treated and control individuals in observational studies. Survival or time-to-event outcomes occur frequently in the medical literature, but the use of propensity score methods in survival analysis has not been thoroughly investigated. This paper compares two approaches for estimating the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) on survival outcomes: Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW) and full matching. The performance of these methods was compared in an extensive set of simulations that varied the extent of confounding and the amount of misspecification of the propensity score model. We found that both IPTW and full matching resulted in estimation of marginal hazard ratios with negligible bias when the ATE was the target estimand and the treatment-selection process was weak to moderate. However, when the treatment-selection process was strong, both methods resulted in biased estimation of the true marginal hazard ratio, even when the propensity score model was correctly specified. When the propensity score model was correctly specified, bias tended to be lower for full matching than for IPTW. The reasons for these biases and for the differences between the two methods appeared to be due to some extreme weights generated for each method. Both methods tended to produce more extreme weights as the magnitude of the effects of covariates on treatment selection increased. Furthermore, more extreme weights were observed for IPTW than for full matching. However, the poorer performance of both methods in the presence of a strong treatment-selection process was mitigated by the use of IPTW with restriction and full matching with a caliper restriction when the propensity score model was correctly specified.

  12. Exemestane Following Tamoxifen Reduces Breast Cancer Recurrences and Prolongs Survival

    Cancer.gov

    Postmenopausal women with early-stage hormone receptor-positive breast cancer had delayed disease recurrence and longer survival after taking 2-3 years of tamoxifen followed by exemestane for a total of 5 years compared to taking tamoxifen for 5 years.

  13. Effects of radio marking on prairie falcons: Attachment failures provide insights about survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, Karen; Bates, Kirk K.; Fuller, Mark R.; Kochert, Michael N.; McKinley, J.O.; Lukacs, Paul M.

    2006-01-01

    From 1999-2002, we attached satellite-received platform transmitter terminals (PTTs) to 40 adult female prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus) on their nesting grounds in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) in southwest Idaho. We used 3 variations of a backpack harness design that had been used previously on raptors. Each radiomarked falcon also received a color leg band with a unique alphanumeric code. We monitored survival of birds using radiotelemetry and searched for marked birds on their nesting grounds during breeding seasons after marking. Because 6 falcons removed their harnesses during the first year, we were able to compare survival rates of birds that shed PTTs with those that retained them. We describe a harness design that failed prematurely as well as designs that proved successful for long-term PTT attachment. We resighted 21 marked individuals on nesting areas 1-5 years after they were radiomarked and documented 13 mortalities of satellite-tracked falcons. We used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate apparent survival probability based on band resighting and telemetry data. Platform transmitter terminals had no short-term effects on falcons or their nesting success during the nesting season they were marked, but birds that shed their transmitters increased their probability of survival. Estimated annual survival for birds that shed their transmitters was 87% compared to 49% for birds wearing transmitters. We discuss possible reasons for differences in apparent survival rates and offer recommendations for future marking of falcons.

  14. Analysis of blood gases, serum fat and serum protein: a new approach to estimate survival chances of stranded Harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) pups from the German North Sea

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Facing numerous challenges, such as illness, storms or human disturbance, some harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) pups lose contact to their dams and are found abandoned along the North Sea coast. In Schleswig-Holstein, pups with the prospect of surviving rehabilitation are admitted to the Seal Center Friedrichskoog. Despite elaborate clinical health assessments on admission, including differential hematology, in 2010, 17% of 108 admitted pups did not survive the first 20 days. The death rate during the years 2006 and 2009 varied between 9 and 19%. To broaden the spectrum of variables which could be predictive for survival, blood gas and serum analyses were performed for 99 pups using venous blood. Variables included total CO2, pH, partial CO2, HCO3–, base excess and anion gap as well as glucose, urea nitrogen, sodium, potassium and chloride. Moreover, total serum protein and fat (triglyceride) concentrations were measured for all pups on admission. Results Repeated measurements of 12 randomly selected individuals revealed a significant (p = 0.002) positive influence of time in rehabilitation on triglyceride concentrations. This trend probably shows the improvement of the pups’ nutritional status as a consequence of the shift from milk replacer formula to fish. No such positive influence was detected for total protein concentrations though. Hematologic values, including blood gases, were not predictive for survival. Conclusions For the first time blood gas values are reported in this study for a large sample size (N = 99) of seal pups (regardless of their health status). The ranges and medians calculated from the data can serve as a stepping stone towards the establishment of reference values for neonate harbor seals. However, future investigations on the development of blood gases in harbor seals with different health conditions and ages over time are necessary to allow for a better understanding of acid–base regulation in harbor seals. PMID:24490584

  15. "Blame it on the Comorbidities": A 5-Year Follow-Up of 53 Chronic Dialysis-Dependent Patients Who Underwent Cardiac Surgery.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Oliver; Rippinger, Nathalie; Spiliopoulos, Kyriakos; Eichinger, Walter; Gansera, Brigitte

    2016-10-01

    Objectives This study evaluates midterm survival rates and risk factors for mortality of chronic dialysis-dependent patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Methods Fifty-three dialysis-dependent patients (34 males, aged 67 ± 12 years) with end-stage renal disease operated within March 2007 and May 2012 were analyzed retrospectively. Survival rates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Predictors of midterm survival were identified with multivariate Cox-regression analysis. Results Twenty-three patients received isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery, 17 received isolated valve replacement, and 13 received combined procedures. Thirty-day mortality was 24.5% (n = 13). Follow-up was complete for 94.3% (n = 50). Survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were: 82, 50, and 17%, respectively. Neither age, gender, poor ejection fraction, emergency, ECC/X-clamp (cross-clamp) time, nor use of left internal thoracic artery or right internal thoracic artery had any influence on midterm survival. Causes of death within midterm follow-up period were related to cardiac events in 16% and neurological events in 16%. In the majority (47%), cause of death was associated with peripheral arterial disease (PAD).The only comorbidity, which could be identified as a significant risk factor, was PAD (p = 0.035). Five patients underwent successful renal transplantation within the follow-up period. Conclusion Although 30-day mortality in this high-risk patient population was increased, midterm survival rates were comparable to the results described in the literature. Cause of death within midterm follow-up period was mostly noncardiac related. Given the limited number of patients, predictors for enhanced 30-day mortality, such as preoperative myocardial infarction, prolonged extracorporeal circulation, operation time, and diabetes mellitus, did not have an influence on midterm survival.

  16. Single vs dual (en bloc) kidney transplants from donors ≤ 5 years of age: A single center experience

    PubMed Central

    Al-Shraideh, Yousef; Farooq, Umar; El-Hennawy, Hany; Farney, Alan C; Palanisamy, Amudha; Rogers, Jeffrey; Orlando, Giuseppe; Khan, Muhammad; Reeves-Daniel, Amber; Doares, William; Kaczmorski, Scott; Gautreaux, Michael D; Iskandar, Samy S; Hairston, Gloria; Brim, Elizabeth; Mangus, Margaret; Stratta, Robert J

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To compare outcomes between single and dual en bloc (EB) kidney transplants (KT) from small pediatric donors. METHODS: Monocentric nonprospective review of KTs from pediatric donors ≤ 5 years of age. Dual EB KT was defined as keeping both donor kidneys attached to the inferior vena cava and aorta, which were then used as venous and arterial conduits for the subsequent transplant into a single recipient. Donor age was less useful than either donor weight or kidney size in decision-making for kidney utilization as kidneys from donors < 8 kg or kidneys < 6 cm in length were not transplanted. Post-transplant management strategies were standardized in all patients. RESULTS: From 2002-2015, 59 KTs were performed including 34 dual EB and 25 single KTs. Mean age of donors (17 mo vs 38 mo, P < 0.001), mean weight (11.0 kg vs 17.4 kg, P = 0.046) and male donors (50% vs 84%, P = 0.01) were lower in the dual EB compared to the single KT group, respectively. Mean cold ischemia time (21 h), kidney donor profile index (KDPI; 73% vs 62%) and levels of serum creatinine (SCr, 0.37 mg/dL vs 0.49 mg/dL, all P = NS) were comparable in the dual EB and single KT groups, respectively. Actuarial graft and patient survival rates at 5-years follow-up were comparable. There was one case of thrombosis resulting in graft loss in each group. Delayed graft function incidence (12% dual EB vs 20% single KT, P = NS) was slightly lower in dual EB KT recipients. Initial duration of hospital stay (mean 5.4 d vs 5.6 d) and the one-year incidences of acute rejection (6% vs 16%), operative complications (3% vs 4%), and major infection were comparable in the dual EB and single KT groups, respectively (all P = NS). Mean 12 mo SCr and abbreviated MDRD levels were 1.17 mg/dL vs 1.35 mg/dL and 72.5 mL/min per 1.73 m2 vs 60.5 mL/min per 1.73 m2 (both P = NS) in the dual EB and single KT groups, respectively. CONCLUSION: By transplanting kidneys from young pediatric donors into adult recipients, one can

  17. Trends in primary central nervous system lymphoma incidence and survival in the U.S.

    PubMed

    Shiels, Meredith S; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Besson, Caroline; Clarke, Christina A; Morton, Lindsay M; Nogueira, Leticia; Pawlish, Karen; Yanik, Elizabeth L; Suneja, Gita; Engels, Eric A

    2016-08-01

    It is suspected that primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) rates are increasing among immunocompetent people. We estimated PCNSL trends in incidence and survival among immunocompetent persons by excluding cases among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons and transplant recipients. PCNSL data were derived from 10 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registries (1992-2011). HIV-infected cases had reported HIV infection or death due to HIV. Transplant recipient cases were estimated from the Transplant Cancer Match Study. We estimated PCNSL trends overall and among immunocompetent individuals, and survival by HIV status. A total of 4158 PCNSLs were diagnosed (36% HIV-infected; 0·9% transplant recipients). HIV prevalence in PCNSL cases declined from 64·1% (1992-1996) to 12·7% (2007-2011), while the prevalence of transplant recipients remained low. General population PCNSL rates were strongly influenced by immunosuppressed cases, particularly in 20-39 year-old men. Among immunocompetent people, PCNSL rates in men and women aged 65+ years increased significantly (1·7% and 1·6%/year), but remained stable in other age groups. Five-year survival was poor, particularly among HIV-infected cases (9·0%). Among HIV-uninfected cases, 5-year survival increased from 19·1% (1992-1994) to 30·1% (2004-2006). In summary, PCNSL rates have increased among immunocompetent elderly adults, but not in younger individuals. Survival remains poor for both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected PCNSL patients.

  18. Tamoxifen beyond 5 years--patients' decisions regarding entry to the aTTom trial.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, M J; Dewar, J A

    2002-09-01

    The aim of this study was to assess among a population of women who had taken adjuvant tamoxifen for 5 years, how many were prepared to enter a randomised trial looking at the duration of tamoxifen treatment and what was the preference of those who declined trial entry. There is uncertainty as to the optimum duration of adjuvant tamoxifen and this is the subject of the aTTom (adjuvant Tamoxifen Treatment offer more?) trial in which patients are randomised to continue or stop tamoxifen after 5 years. Patients have been recruited to the aTTom trial in Dundee since 1996 and a record has been kept of all the patients with whom the trial was discussed. Patients who declined trial entry were allowed to choose whether to electively stop or continue tamoxifen. 306 patients were eligible for trial entry of whom 171 (56%) consented to randomisation (82 to continue and 89 to stop). Amongst the 135 (44%) who declined randomisation, 28 (21%) elected to stop tamoxifen treatment, 90 (67%) elected to continue and in 17 (13%) their decision was unclear. These results illustrate that patients eligible for the aTTom trial share our clinical equipoise. A majority (56%) of patients were agreeable to randomisation, but among those who declined, some (67%) preferred to continue, some (21%) to stop tamoxifen. This trial is unusual in that the patients have already experienced the treatment options, so the patients' preferences reflect a truly informed choice.

  19. Body composition during fetal development and infancy through the age of 5 years

    PubMed Central

    Toro-Ramos, T; Paley, C; Pi-Sunyer, FX; Gallagher, D

    2015-01-01

    Fetal body composition is an important determinant of body composition at birth, and it is likely to be an important determinant at later stages in life. The purpose of this work is to provide a comprehensive overview by presenting data from previously published studies that report on body composition during fetal development in newborns and the infant/child through 5 years of age. Understanding the changes in body composition that occur both in utero and during infancy and childhood, and how they may be related, may help inform evidence-based practice during pregnancy and childhood. We describe body composition measurement techniques from the in utero period to 5 years of age, and identify gaps in knowledge to direct future research efforts. Available literature on chemical and cadaver analyses of fetal studies during gestation is presented to show the timing and accretion rates of adipose and lean tissues. Quantitative and qualitative aspects of fetal lean and fat mass accretion could be especially useful in the clinical setting for diagnostic purposes. The practicality of different pediatric body composition measurement methods in the clinical setting is discussed by presenting the assumptions and limitations associated with each method that may assist the clinician in characterizing the health and nutritional status of the fetus, infant and child. It is our hope that this review will help guide future research efforts directed at increasing the understanding of how body composition in early development may be associated with chronic diseases in later life. PMID:26242725

  20. Fasting increases risk for onset of binge eating and bulimic pathology: a 5-year prospective study.

    PubMed

    Stice, Eric; Davis, Kendra; Miller, Nicole P; Marti, C Nathan

    2008-11-01

    Although adolescent girls with elevated dietary restraint scores are at increased risk for future binge eating and bulimic pathology, they do not eat less than those with lower restraint scores. The fact that only a small proportion of individuals with elevated dietary restraint scores develop bulimic pathology suggests that some extreme but rare form of dietary restriction may increase risk for this disturbance. The authors tested the hypothesis that fasting (going without eating for 24 hr for weight control) would be a more potent predictor of binge eating and bulimic pathology onset than dietary restraint scores using data from 496 adolescent girls followed over 5 years. Results confirmed that only 23% of participants with elevated dietary restraint scores reported fasting. Furthermore, fasting generally showed stronger and more consistent predictive relations to future onset of recurrent binge eating and threshold/subthreshold bulimia nervosa over 1- to 5-year follow-up relative to dietary restraint, though the former effects were only significantly stronger than the latter for some comparisons. Results provide preliminary support for the hypothesis that fasting is a stronger risk factor for bulimic pathology than is self-reported dieting.

  1. Aetiology and clinical features of dysentery in children aged <5 years in rural Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Ferdous, F; Ahmed, S; DAS, S K; Farzana, F D; Latham, J R; Chisti, M J; Faruque, A S G

    2014-01-01

    The study identified the common aetiological agents and prominent clinical features of dysentery cases in children aged <5 years and compared this to non-dysentery diarrhoeal cases from the same population. From January 2010 to December 2011, 2324 children aged <5 years received treatment at Kumudini Hospital, of which 682 (29%) presented with dysentery. Of the dysenteric children, aetiology could not be determined for over half (61%). Shigella spp. accounted for 32% of dysentery cases. Significant associations were found between presence of blood in stool and: child age (24-59 months) [odds ratio (OR) 2.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-3.27], no treatment of drinking water at home (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.09-3.67), vomiting (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.14-0.25), abdominal pain (OR 4.68, 95% CI 3.24-6.77), straining (OR 16.45, 95% CI 11.92-22.69), wasting (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.15-2.41), and presence of Shigella in stool (OR 6.25, 95% CI 4.20-9.29) after controlling for confounders. This study makes it clear that appropriate public health strategies are needed to reduce the burden of dysentery in Bangladesh.

  2. The Thermal State of KS 1731-260 after 14.5 years in Quiescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merritt, Rachael L.; Cackett, Edward M.; Brown, Edward F.; Page, Dany; Cumming, Andrew; Degenaar, Nathalie; Deibel, Alex; Homan, Jeroen; Miller, Jon M.; Wijnands, Rudy

    2016-12-01

    Crustal cooling of accretion-heated neutron stars provides insight into the stellar interior of neutron stars. The neutron star X-ray transient, KS 1731-260, was in outburst for 12.5 years before returning to quiescence in 2001. We have monitored the cooling of this source since then through Chandra and XMM-Newton observations. Here we present a 150 ks Chandra observation of KS 1731-260 taken in 2015 August, about 14.5 years into quiescence and 6 years after the previous observation. We find that the neutron star surface temperature is consistent with the previous observation, suggesting that crustal cooling has likely stopped and the crust has reached thermal equilibrium with the core. Using a theoretical crust thermal evolution code, we fit the observed cooling curves and constrain the core temperature (T c = 9.35 ± 0.25 × 107 K), composition (Q {}{imp}={4.4}-0.5+2.2), and level of extra shallow heating required (Q sh = 1.36 ± 0.18 MeV/nucleon). We find that the presence of a low thermal conductivity layer, as expected from nuclear pasta, is not required to fit the cooling curve well, but cannot be excluded either.

  3. Family meal frequency and weight status among adolescents: cross-sectional and 5-year longitudinal associations.

    PubMed

    Fulkerson, Jayne A; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J; Story, Mary

    2008-11-01

    This study examined cross-sectional and 5-year longitudinal associations between the frequency of family meals and overweight status (>85th percentile for age and gender) in a large, diverse population of adolescents (n = 2,516). The population included two cohorts (midadolescence to young adulthood, n = 1,710, and early adolescence to midadolescence, n = 806). Logistic regression models tested cross-sectional and longitudinal (1999-2004) associations between family meal frequency and overweight status. Two sets of models are presented: (i) models adjusted only for baseline demographic characteristics and (ii) models also adjusted for physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and energy intake. Longitudinal models adjusted for baseline overweight status. Although significant inverse associations between family meal frequency and overweight status were observed for early adolescent females in all cross-sectional models (P < 0.001), longitudinal associations were not significant. Neither cross-sectional nor longitudinal associations were significant for males of either cohort and older females in any models. Young adolescent females who do not eat meals with their families may be at risk for overweight; however, the increased risk may not persist over a 5-year period. Eating family meals during high school may not protect against overweight during young adulthood. Although previous longitudinal research has suggested significant dietary and psychosocial benefits related to family meal frequency, the weight-related benefits of family meals may be more complex and deserving of further study, including an examination of the quality and quantity of food consumed at family meals.

  4. Factors associated with vaccination coverage in children < 5 years in Angola.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Manuel Falcão Saturnino de; Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Rocha, Juan Stuardo Yazlle

    2014-12-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze vaccination coverage and factors associated with a complete immunization scheme in children < 5 years old. METHODS This cross-sectional household census survey evaluated 1,209 children < 5 years old living in Bom Jesus, Angola, in 2010. Data were obtained from interviews, questionnaires, child immunization histories, and maternal health histories. The statistical analysis used generalized linear models, in which the dependent variable followed a binary distribution (vaccinated, unvaccinated) and the association function was logarithmic and had the children's individual, familial, and socioeconomic factors as independent variables. RESULTS Vaccination coverage was 37.0%, higher in children < 1 year (55.0%) and heterogeneous across neighborhoods; 52.0% of children of both sexes had no immunization records. The prevalence rate of vaccination significantly varied according to child age, mother's level of education, family size, ownership of household appliances, and destination of domestic waste. CONCLUSIONS Vulnerable groups with vaccination coverage below recommended levels continue to be present. Some factors indicate inequalities that represent barriers to full immunization, indicating the need to implement more equitable policies. The knowledge of these factors contributes to planning immunization promotion measures that focus on the most vulnerable groups.

  5. An implantable neuroprosthesis for standing and walking in paraplegia: 5-year patient follow-up

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guiraud, David; Stieglitz, Thomas; Koch, Klaus Peter; Divoux, Jean-Louis; Rabischong, Pierre

    2006-12-01

    We present the results of a 5-year patient follow-up after implantation of an original neuroprosthesis. The system is able to stimulate both epimysial and neural electrodes in such a way that the complete flexor-extensor chain of the lower limb can be activated without using the withdrawal reflex. We demonstrate that standing and assisted walking are possible, and the results have remained stable for 5 years. Nevertheless, some problems were noted, particularly regarding the muscle response on the epimysial channels. Analysis of the electrical behaviour and thresholds indicated that the surgical phase is crucial because of the sensitivity of the functional responses to electrode placement. Neural stimulation proved to be more efficient and more stable over time. This mode requires less energy and provides more selective stimulation. This FES system can be improved to enable balanced standing and less fatiguing gait, but this will require feedback on event detection to trigger transitions between stimulation sequences, as well as feedback to the patient about the state of his lower limbs.

  6. HIV rapid testing in a Veterans Affairs hospital ED setting: a 5-year sustainability evaluation.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Herschel; Hagedorn, Hildi; Anaya, Henry D

    2014-08-01

    Routine HIV testing in primary care settings is now recommended in the United States. The US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has increased the number of patients tested for HIV, but overall HIV testing rates in VA remain low. A proven strategy for increasing such testing involves nurse-initiated HIV rapid testing (HIV RT). The purpose of this work was to use a mixed methodology approach to evaluate the 5-year sustainability of an intervention that implemented HIV RT in a VA emergency department setting in a large, urban VA medical center to reduce missed diagnostic and treatment opportunities in this vulnerable patient population. In-person semistructured interviews were conducted with providers and stakeholders. Interview notes were qualitatively coded for emerging themes. Quarterly testing rates were evaluated for a 5-year time span starting from the launch in July 2008. Findings indicate that HIV RT was sustained by the enthusiasm of 2 clinical champions who oversaw the registered nurses responsible for conducting the testing. The departure of the clinical champions was correlated with a substantial drop-off in testing. Findings also indicate potential strategies for improving sustainability including engaging senior leadership in the project, engaging line staff in the implementation planning from the start to increase ownership over the innovation, incorporating information into initial training explaining the importance of the innovation to quality patient care, providing ongoing training to maintain skills, and providing routine progress reports to staff to demonstrate the ongoing impact of their efforts.

  7. [Bocavirus in infants under 5 years with acute respiratory infection. Chaco Province, Argentina, 2014].

    PubMed

    Deluca, Gerardo D; Urquijo, María Cecilia; Passarella, Carolina; Picón, César; Picón, Dimas; Acosta, María; Rovira, Carina; Marín, Héctor M

    2016-01-01

    Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is the most frequent pathology along human life, being the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of bocavirus (BoV) in infants under 5 years with symptoms of ARI from north Argentina (Chaco province). The study was performed on nasopharyngeal aspirates from 488 patients, in the period of January-December 2014. The samples were tested by real time PCR and 36 positive BoV cases (7.4%) were detected. The period with the highest detection rate was June-September with 28 cases (77.8%), of which 26 (72.2%) were infants between 6-18 moths of life. In half of BoV positive cases this virus was detected as single infection of the upper respiratory tract, and in the remaining 50%, as concomitant infection with other microorganisms. To our knowledge, this would be the first study on molecular epidemiology of BoV in northern Argentina. We emphasize the importance of investigating these new viruses capable of generating acute respiratory disease and also to disseminate awareness on their circulation within the community.

  8. Gender Differences in Appraisal of Stress and Coping 5 Years after Heart Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Grady, Kathleen L; Andrei, Adin-Cristian; Li, Zhi; Rybarczyk, Bruce; White-Williams, Connie; Gordon, Robert; McGee, Edwin C.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES We examined whether gender differences exist regarding stress, symptom distress, coping, adherence, and social support 5 years after heart transplantation. BACKGROUND Differences exist in health-related quality of life outcomes by gender after heart transplantation; women report poorer outcomes. METHODS Patients (n=210, female=42), were from a prospective, multi-site, study of health-related quality of life long-term after heart transplantation. Patients completed self-report instruments 5 years after heart transplantation (mean=4.98±0.17 years after transplant). Statistical analyses included two-sample t-tests, Chi-square or Fisher’s exact test, and multivariable modeling. RESULTS Women did not report more overall stress or symptom distress, but reported more difficulty adhering to the transplant regimen, yet more actual adherence than men. Women reported using more negative coping styles, but reported more satisfaction with social support. CONCLUSIONS Gender differences exist regarding appraisal of stress, coping styles, and coping resources long-term after heart transplantation. These differences may guide tailoring therapy regarding stress, poor coping, and lack of resources. PMID:26514074

  9. Discourse prominence effects on 2.5-year-old children’s interpretation of pronouns

    PubMed Central

    Song, Hyun-joo; Fisher, Cynthia

    2007-01-01

    Three experiments examined 2.5-year-olds’ sensitivity to discourse structure in pronoun interpretation. Children heard simple two-character stories illustrated by pictures on two video screens. In Experiments 1 and 2, one character in each story was established as more prominent than the other in several context sentences because it was mentioned first, appeared in subject position, was mentioned more often, and was pronominalized once. In Experiment 3, one character was singled out as more prominent only by being mentioned first and placed in subject position. In all three experiments, after hearing a pronoun subject in the final (test) sentence of each story, children looked longer at the character established as more prominent in the preceding sentences. These experiments show that 2.5-year-olds, like older children and adults, interpret pronouns relative to a discourse representation in which referents are ranked in prominence, and that the prominence of discourse referents is influenced by some of the same factors that guide pronoun interpretation in adulthood. PMID:18978930

  10. A 5-Year Investigation of Children's Adaptive Functioning Following Conformal Radiation Therapy for Localized Ependymoma

    SciTech Connect

    Netson, Kelli L.; Conklin, Heather M.; Wu Shengjie; Xiong Xiaoping; Merchant, Thomas E.

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapies have the potential to preserve cognitive outcomes in children with ependymoma; however, functional behavior remains uninvestigated. This longitudinal investigation prospectively examined intelligence quotient (IQ) and adaptive functioning during the first 5 years after irradiation in children diagnosed with ependymoma. Methods and Materials: The study cohort consisted of 123 children with intracranial ependymoma. Mean age at irradiation was 4.60 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.85-5.35). Serial neurocognitive evaluations, including an age-appropriate IQ measure and the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS), were completed before irradiation, 6 months after treatment, and annually for 5 years. A total of 579 neurocognitive evaluations were included in these analyses. Results: Baseline IQ and VABS were below normative means (P<.05), although within the average range. Linear mixed models revealed stable IQ and VABS across the follow-up period, except for the VABS Communication Index, which declined significantly (P=.015). Annual change in IQ (-.04 points) did not correlate with annual change in VABS (-.90 to +.44 points). Clinical factors associated with poorer baseline performance (P<.05) included preirradiation chemotherapy, cerebrospinal fluid shunt placement, number and extent of surgical resections, and younger age at treatment. No clinical factors significantly affected the rate of change in scores. Conclusions: Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapies provided relative sparing of functional outcomes including IQ and adaptive behaviors, even in very young children. Communication skills remained vulnerable and should be the target of preventive and rehabilitative interventions.

  11. EXPOSE-E: an ESA astrobiology mission 1.5 years in space.

    PubMed

    Rabbow, Elke; Rettberg, Petra; Barczyk, Simon; Bohmeier, Maria; Parpart, André; Panitz, Corinna; Horneck, Gerda; von Heise-Rotenburg, Ralf; Hoppenbrouwers, Tom; Willnecker, Rainer; Baglioni, Pietro; Demets, René; Dettmann, Jan; Reitz, Guenther

    2012-05-01

    The multi-user facility EXPOSE-E was designed by the European Space Agency to enable astrobiology research in space (low-Earth orbit). On 7 February 2008, EXPOSE-E was carried to the International Space Station (ISS) on the European Technology Exposure Facility (EuTEF) platform in the cargo bay of Space Shuttle STS-122 Atlantis. The facility was installed at the starboard cone of the Columbus module by extravehicular activity, where it remained in space for 1.5 years. EXPOSE-E was returned to Earth with STS-128 Discovery on 12 September 2009 for subsequent sample analysis. EXPOSE-E provided accommodation in three exposure trays for a variety of astrobiological test samples that were exposed to selected space conditions: either to space vacuum, solar electromagnetic radiation at >110 nm and cosmic radiation (trays 1 and 3) or to simulated martian surface conditions (tray 2). Data on UV radiation, cosmic radiation, and temperature were measured every 10 s and downlinked by telemetry. A parallel mission ground reference (MGR) experiment was performed on ground with a parallel set of hardware and samples under simulated space conditions. EXPOSE-E performed a successful 1.5-year mission in space.

  12. [The Octabaix study. Baseline assessment and 5 years of follow-up].

    PubMed

    Ferrer, Assumpta; Formiga, Francesc; Padrós, Gloria; Badia, Teresa; Almeda, Jesús; Octabaix, Grupo Estudio

    This is a review of a prospective, community-based study with a follow-up period of 5years. It is a study of 328 participants aged 85 at baseline, of which 62% were female, 53% widows, and a third of them living alone. High blood pressure was observed in 75.9%, dyslipidaemia in 51.2%, and diabetes in 17.7%. At baseline the median Barthel Index was 95, the Spanish version of the Mini-Mental State Examination was 28, the Charlson index 1, the Mini Nutritional Assessment 25, the Gijón test 10, the visual analogue scale of the Quality of Life Test was 60, and with a mean of 6.1 prescription drugs. A lower quality of life was also associated with female gender, a phenotype of frailty, heart failure, and a high level of social risk. At 5years of follow-up, the mortality rate was high, with 138 (42.1%) of the population sample dying at the end of the period. It represents an annual mortality rate of 8.4%. Thus, a common denominator of this review has been the high importance of functionality and overall comorbidity factors associated with mortality in this very old age group, compared to other more traditional factors in younger populations. Several studies of frailty have also been assessed in this group, as well as falls, nutritional risk, diabetes and successful aging, including important aspects to better understand this population group.

  13. Lateralization of tongue movements during eating in children 2 to 5 years old.

    PubMed

    Gisel, E G; Schwaab, L; Lange-Stemmler, L; Niman, C W; Schwartz, J L

    1986-04-01

    Normative data on skills of the tongue used in eating are presented. Normal children 2 to 5 years old were studied regarding their preference of placing food either on the right or left side when eating, and they were compared with age-matched Down's syndrome children. In addition, the ability to move food from the right to the left side of the mouth was studied. Normal children underwent a transition from predominantly placing food on the right side at 2 years of age to predominantly placing it on the left side at 4 years of age. Among Down's syndrome children females preferred the right side, and males preferred the left side. The ability to move food from right to left (lateralizing) undergoes a developmental progression from tilting the head to rolling, followed by slow and eventually by smooth movement from one side to the other. Only 15% of the 5-year-olds were able to move food smoothly from side to side. These data provide a baseline against which children with eating problems can be compared.

  14. Radiometric calibration stability of the EO-1 advanced land imager: 5 years on-orbit

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Markham, B.L.; Ong, L.; Barsi, J.A.; Mendenhall, J.A.; Lencioni, D.E.; Helder, D.L.; Hollaren, D.M.; Morfitt, R.

    2006-01-01

    The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) was developed as a prototype sensor for follow on missions to Landsat-7. It was launched in November 2000 on the Earth Observing One (EO-1) satellite as a nominal one-year technology demonstration mission. As of this writing, the sensor has continued to operate in excess of 5 years. Six of the ALl's nine multi-spectral (MS) bands and the panchromatic band have similar spectral coverage as those on the Landsat-7 ETM+. In addition to on-board lamps, which have been significantly more stable than the lamps on ETM+, the ALI has a solar diffuser and has imaged the moon monthly since launch. This combined calibration dataset allows understanding of the radiometric stability of the ALI system, its calibrators and some differentiation of the sources of the changes with time. The solar dataset is limited as the mechanism controlling the aperture to the solar diffuser failed approximately 18 months after launch. Results over 5 years indicate that: the shortest wavelength band (443 nm) has degraded in response about 2%; the 482 nm and 565 nm bands decreased in response about 1%; the 660 nm, 790 nm and 868 nm bands each degraded about 5%; the 1250 nm and 1650 nm bands did not change significantly and the 2215 nm band increased in response about 2%.

  15. A 5-year study of adenoviruses causing conjunctivitis in Izmir, Turkey.

    PubMed

    Erdin, Begüm Nalça; Pas, Suzan D; Durak, İsmet; Schutten, Martin; Sayıner, A Arzu

    2015-03-01

    Adenoviruses are a common cause of conjunctivitis. Genotypes are diverse and differ according to population and geographical distribution of the virus. There is limited data regarding ocular adenoviral infections and genotype distribution in Turkey. This study aimed to determine the adenovirus genotypes and their epidemiological features among patients with conjunctivitis between 2006 and 2010, in Izmir, Turkey. Adenoviral DNA was detected by PCR in 213 of 488 (44%) of the ocular samples collected from patients with viral conjunctivitis during the 5-year study period. Of these, 101 (47%) were randomly chosen and genotyped by sequence analysis. Seven genotypes were identified, including 3, 4, 8, 11, 19, 37, and 53. Genotype 8 and 4 were the dominant types detected in 67 (66.3%) and 25 (24.7%) of the samples, respectively. Other five genotypes (3, 11, 19, 37, 53) were detected in 9 (8.9%) samples. Genotype and seasonal differences observed throughout the study. Human adenoviruse (HAdV)-8 was the most frequent type, except 2008. The prevalence of genotype 4 increased starting from 2006, became dominant in 2008 and decreased in the following years. The peak season was mostly spring months, although it was possible to detect positive samples throughout the year. In conclusion, genotype 8 followed by genotype 4 was the most frequent adenoviral types causing conjunctivitis during the 5-year study period. Findings suggest that there is a slow shift between genotypes throughout the years.

  16. Molecular characterization of cryptosporidium in children aged 0- 5 years with diarrhea in Jos, Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Anejo-Okopi, Joseph Aje; Okojokwu, Julius Ocheme; Ebonyi, Augustine Odo; Ejeliogu, Emeka Uba; Isa, Samson Ejiji; Audu, Onyemocho; Akpakpan, Edoama Edet; Nwachukwu, Esther Ebere; Ifokwe, Christabel Kelechi; Ali, Murna; Lar, Patricia; Oguche, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Cryptosporidium is an important cause of diarrhea in children and immune-compromised individuals. Recent advances in molecular diagnostics have led to the discovery of subtype families that are thought to be more commonly associated with diarrhea. We aimed to isolate and characterize Cryptosporidium spp among children with diarrhea in Jos, Nigeria. Methods Stool samples were collected from165 children aged 0-5 years with diarrhea. Cryptosporidium oocysts were examined by wet mount preparation, using formalin ether and a modified acid fast staining method. DNA was extracted from positive samples using QIAamp DNA stool mini kit and PCR-RFLP assay was carried out after quantification. Genotyping and phylogenetic analysis were done to determine the subtype families and their relatedness. Results From the 165 children studied, 8 (4.8%) were infected with Cryptosporidium. PCR-RFLP assay and genotype characterization found the following Cryptosporidium species: C. hominis 6 (75%) and C. parvum 2 (25.0%), with family subtypes Id-5, Ie-1 and IIa-1, IId-1 respectively.The most common species was C. hominis and the frequent subtype was C. hominis-Id 5 (62.5%). Conclusion Cryptosporidium is not an uncommon cause of diarrhea in children, with C. hominis being the dominant species. Also C. hominis Id is the commonest sub-family subtype. Put together, zoonotic species may be an important cause of diarrhea in children aged 0-5 years in Jos, Nigeria. PMID:28293369

  17. Factors associated with vaccination coverage in children < 5 years in Angola

    PubMed Central

    de Oliveira, Manuel Falcão Saturnino; Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Rocha, Juan Stuardo Yazlle

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze vaccination coverage and factors associated with a complete immunization scheme in children < 5 years old. METHODS This cross-sectional household census survey evaluated 1,209 children < 5 years old living in Bom Jesus, Angola, in 2010. Data were obtained from interviews, questionnaires, child immunization histories, and maternal health histories. The statistical analysis used generalized linear models, in which the dependent variable followed a binary distribution (vaccinated, unvaccinated) and the association function was logarithmic and had the children’s individual, familial, and socioeconomic factors as independent variables. RESULTS Vaccination coverage was 37.0%, higher in children < 1 year (55.0%) and heterogeneous across neighborhoods; 52.0% of children of both sexes had no immunization records. The prevalence rate of vaccination significantly varied according to child age, mother’s level of education, family size, ownership of household appliances, and destination of domestic waste. CONCLUSIONS Vulnerable groups with vaccination coverage below recommended levels continue to be present. Some factors indicate inequalities that represent barriers to full immunization, indicating the need to implement more equitable policies. The knowledge of these factors contributes to planning immunization promotion measures that focus on the most vulnerable groups. PMID:26039393

  18. Prevalence of Malocclusion in 3- to 5-Year-Old Children in Shanghai, China

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Xinhua; Zhang, Ying; Wang, Yan; Zhang, Hao; Chen, Li; Liu, Yuehua

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to obtain the prevalence of malocclusions in preschool children in Shanghai, China. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 2335 children aged 3–5 years from kindergartens. Several occlusal parameters were clinically assessed, including second deciduous molar terminal plane, canine relationship, degree of overjet and overbite, anterior and posterior crossbite, and the presence or absence of physiologic spaces and crowding. All parents of subjects were asked to fill in the oral health knowledge questionnaires. The prevalence of malocclusion in primary dentition in Shanghai was 83.9%, and no significant differences were found in genders. Data showed that the prevalence of deep overbite (63.7%) was the highest in children with malocclusion, followed by deep overjet (33.9%), midline deviation (26.6%), anterior crossbite (8.0%) and anterior crowding (6.5%). The results revealed a high prevalence of malocclusion in primary dentition in children aged 3–5 years old of Shanghai, especially in vertical anomalies. The need for preventive orthodontic therapy is extremely desired and oral health education about malocclusion should be strengthened. PMID:28327525

  19. Trends in net survival from kidney cancer in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

    PubMed

    Mangone, Lucia; Bossard, Nadine; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Pezzarossi, Annamaria; Roncaglia, Francesca; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Kidney cancer is a frequent malignant disease. To date, there is no evidence on the effectiveness of early detection and, in most cases, surgery represents the only standard treatment. So far, there is no standardized therapy for localized and locally advanced renal tumors; however, the recent introduction of target therapy has significantly improved the prognosis of metastatic disease. Therefore, survival differences in Europe are deemed to involve differences in diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. The aim of the SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the net survival from kidney cancer between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland) and provide trends in net survival and dynamics of excess mortality rates up to 5 years after diagnosis. The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. First, net survival was studied over the 2000-2004 period using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analysis, the study period was specific to each country. The results are reported from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland, and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. These analyses were carried out using a flexible excess rate modeling strategy. In 2000-2004, the 5-year net survival ranged between 59% (Spain) and 67% (France and Italy) in men and between 60% (Spain) and 73% (Portugal) in women. There was an increase in the age-standardized net survival between 1992 and 2004 at 1 year, as well as at 5 years, in all age groups and countries. Irrespective of the year of diagnosis, the excess mortality rate decreased with time elapsed since diagnosis. There are some differences in survival from kidney cancer between European Latin countries, but a considerable improvement was observed in most countries.

  20. Trends in net survival from skin malignant melanoma in six European Latin countries: results from the SUDCAN population-based study.

    PubMed

    Galceran, Jaume; Uhry, Zoé; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Borràs, Joan

    2017-01-01

    In Europe as a whole, survival from skin malignant melanoma (SMM) has increased constantly since the 1980s. The aim of the SUDCAN collaborative study was to compare the trends in the 5-year net survival from SMM and in related excess mortality rate between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland). The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database (end of follow-up: 01 January 2009). First, the net survival was studied over the 2000-2004 period using the Pohar-Perme estimator. For trend analyses, the study period was specific to each country. The results are reported from 1992 to 2004 in France, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland and from 2000 to 2004 in Belgium and Portugal. The analyses were carried out using a flexible excess rate modeling. Over the 2000-2004 period, the 5-year net survival from SMM ranged from 79 (Portugal) to 90% (Switzerland). In all countries, net survival was higher in women versus men and in young versus old age groups. From 1992 to 2004, the 5-year net survival increased the most in the countries with the lowest survivals in 1992 (+9% in Italy and Spain vs. +2% in Switzerland or +4% in France). The differences between countries decreased between 1992 and 2004. Although survival increased to a lower or higher extent in all countries during the period studied, significant differences in net survival from SMM persisted among the six countries studied. Health policies should mainly enhance early diagnosis by increasing public awareness and with screening campaigns. Furthermore, new immunotherapies, which will be approved soon hopefully, should also be used to improve the outcomes of SMM treatment.

  1. The influence of a triclosan toothpaste on adverse events in patients with cardiovascular disease over 5-years.

    PubMed

    Cullinan, Mary P; Palmer, Janet E; Carle, Anne D; West, Malcolm J; Westerman, Bill; Seymour, Gregory J

    2015-03-01

    Adverse effects of long-term usage of triclosan-containing toothpaste in humans are currently unknown. We assessed the effect of long-term use of 0.3% triclosan-toothpaste on serious adverse events (SAEs) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). 438 patients with a history of stable CVD were entered into the 5-year longitudinal Cardiovascular and Periodontal Study at Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Australia and randomised into test (triclosan) or placebo groups. There were no significant differences in demographics or clinical features between the groups. Patients were examined at baseline, and annually for 5-years. SAEs were classified according to the System Organ Classes defined by MedDRA (Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities). Results were analysed using chi square and Kaplan Meier analysis. Overall, 232 patients (123 in the triclosan group; 109 in the placebo group) experienced 569 SAEs (288 in the triclosan group and 281 in the placebo group). There was no significant difference between the groups in numbers of patients experiencing SAEs (p=0.35) or specific cardiovascular SAEs (p=0.82), nor in time to the first SAE or first cardiovascular SAE, irrespective of gender, age or BMI after adjusting for multiple comparisons (p>0.05). The adjusted odds of experiencing an SAE were estimated to increase by 2.7% for each year of age (p=0.02) and the adjusted odds of experiencing a cardiovascular SAE were estimated to increase by 5.1% for each unit increase in BMI (p=0.02). Most cardiovascular events were related to unstable angina or myocardial infarcts, 21 were associated with arrhythmia and 41 were vascular events such as aortic aneurysm and cerebrovascular accident. Within the limitations of the present study the data suggest that the use of triclosan-toothpaste may not be associated with any increase in SAEs in this CVD population. The long-term impact of triclosan on hormone-related disease, such as cancer, in humans remains to be determined.

  2. 5-year Angiographic and Clinical Follow-up of Coil-embolised Intradural Saccular Aneurysms

    PubMed Central

    Batista, LL.; Mahadevan, J.; Sachet, M.; Alvarez, H.; Rodesch, G.; Lasjaunias, P.

    2002-01-01

    Summary The purpose of the paper is the follow-up of embolised intradural saccular Arterial Aneurysms (AA), excluding giant, dissecting, inflammatory, fusiform or AA associated to BVAM. Since its introduction in 1991, the Guglielmi Detachable Coil has offered protection against aneurysmal rebleeding in the critical few days and months after SAH regardless of the grade. A number of questions remain: is complete angiographic obliteration necessary at first embolisation? What duration of clinical / angiographic follow-up (FU) is required to ensure the risk of haemorrhage has been eliminated? What is the long-term protection against rebleeding? One hundred and two patients with 160 intradural saccular AA embolised before april 1997 were selected for this study. They had at least 5-yrs clinical FU, of which 22 patients had a midterm (3 years) and 45 patients had a 5year or more angiographic FU (mean 67,7 months per patient). Twenty-eight embolised AAs with 100% occlusion at 1 year, remained unchanged on the 5year angiograms. A further 14 patients with complete occlusion at 1 year showed persisting complete occlusion on angiogram at 3-years FU, which in our series means that complete occlusion after the first year post-embolisation implies that the aneurysm will remain completely occluded. All secondary spontaneous thromboses (27.6% of cases), occurred during the first year pos-embolisation. In six patients with subtotal or partial occlusion no change was seen for three consecutive years of FU; none showed later change at 5-year angiography. Below 80% occlusion our series does not provide enough information but we consider the situation instable. No mortality related to the procedure was observed in the unruptured AA group. No bleeding or re-bleeding has occurred since the beginning of our experience (1993) in saccular AA treated by GDC-Coil. Coil-embolisation of properly selected patients is effective in protecting against bleeding or re-bleeding at short and long

  3. [Edwards syndrome--most frequent indications for genetic amniocentesis. Analysis of the last 5 years].

    PubMed

    Chuchracki, Marek; Janiak, Justyna; Ziółkowska, Katarzyna; Sedziak, Anna; Opala, Tomasz

    2012-01-01

    Edwards syndrome (trisomy 18) occurs in 1: 8000 live births and is closely related to the mother's age. Most of the embryos and fetuses with trisomy of 18 chromosome pair undergo natural abortion. Change in number and structure of chromosomes usually takes place spontaneously. However, the incidence of chromosome mutations increases with the presence of mutagenic factors. One of the chemical mutagenic factors is benzopyrene - present in cigarette smoke. Prenatal cytogenetic diagnostic is used for detecting diseases and clinical syndromes conditioned by chromosome aberrations. To this date the "golden standard" of this diagnostic is the assessment of the fetus karyotype by means of analysis of chromosome banding pattern from amniotic fluid-derived cells. The aim of the study was the analysis of indications for genetic amniocenteses carried out in the last 5 years and in case of which trisomy of chromosome 18 (Edwards syndrome) was diagnosed. The analysis covered 1593 results of fetus karyotypes obtained from Cytogenetic Laboratory of the Central Gynecological-Obstetric Clinical Hospital in Poznań over the last 5 years. The study procedure consisted in producing cell culture from amniotic fluid, appliance of appropriate color techniques and thorough microscopic analysis of chromosome banding pattern. As a result of the analysis it was discovered that in 1538 cases the karyotype was normal, and in 55 cases trisomy 18 was diagnosed, which constituted 3% of all cytogenetic tests. The highest number of trisomy 18 cases was noted in 2009 - 19 cases, which constitutes 5% of all tests. In 2010 and 2011 the results included respectively 2% and 3% of diagnosed trisomy 18 (Edwards syndrome). In the last 5 years normal results for karyotypes constituted 87%, in 10% cases other aberrations were diagnosed through cystogenetic tests, whereas 3% of the results have shown trisomy 18 (Edwards syndrome The most frequent indications for performing genetic amniocentesis, as a result of