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Sample records for 5-year survival estimates

  1. Trends in 5-year survival rates among breast cancer patients by hormone receptor status and stage

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Lu; Linden, Hannah M.; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Li, Christopher I.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Improvement in breast cancer survival has been observed in recent decades in the U.S., but it is unclear if similar survival gains are consistent across breast cancer subtypes, especially with regards to more advanced stages of the disease. Methods Data were from 13 population-based cancer registries participating in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, consisting of women between 20–79 years of age diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 1992 and 2008. 2-year (1992–2008) and 5-year (1992–2006) breast cancer cause-specific survival rates were calculated and stratified by estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) status, stage and race. Annual percent changes in survival rates were assessed. Results From 1992 through 1998–1999, 5-year and 2-year cause specific survival rates significantly improved across ER+/PR+, ER−/PR− and ER+/PR− subtypes, with an annual increase ranging from 0.5%–1.0%. From 1998–1999 to 2006, different patterns were observed by ER/PR subtypes with survival rates slightly improving for ER+/PR+, continuing to improve at a rate of 0.5% per year for ER−/PR−, and dropping 0.3% annually for ER+/PR− No significant survival gains were experienced by patients with ER−/PR+ cancer during the study period. In terms of advanced diseases, greatest annual increases in survival rates were seen for patients with stage III–IV ER+/PR+ and ER−/PR− tumors but less progress was observed for advanced ER+/PR− breast cancers. Conclusion Steady improvements in survival rates for breast cancer have been achieved over the past several decades. However, 5-year survival rates for stage IV disease remained dismally below 20% for most ER/PR subtypes. PMID:25164974

  2. Survival Rate of Short, Locking Taper Implants with a Plateau Design: A 5-Year Retrospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Demiralp, Kemal Özgür; Akbulut, Nihat; Kursun, Sebnem; Argun, Didem; Bagis, Nilsun; Orhan, Kaan

    2015-01-01

    Background. Short implants have become popular in the reconstruction of jaws, especially in cases with limited bone height. Shorter implants, those with locking tapers and plateau root shapes, tend to have longer survival times. We retrospectively investigated the cumulative survival rates of Bicon short implants (<8 mm) according to patient variables over a 5-year period. Materials and Methods. This study included 111 consecutively treated patients with 371 implants supporting fixed or removable prosthetics. Data were evaluated to acquire cumulative survival rates according to gender, age, tobacco use, surgical procedure, bone quality, and restoration type. Statistics were performed using chi-square, Mann-Whitney, and Kruskal Wallis H tests. Results. The survival rate was 97.3% with, on average, 22.8 months of follow-up. Patients older than 60 years had higher failure rate than the other age groups (P < 0.05). Placed region, age, and bone quality had adverse effects on survival rate in the <8 mm implant group with statistically significant difference (P < 0.05). Conclusions. Approximately 23-month follow-up data indicate that short implants with locking tapers and plateau-type roots have comparable survival rates as other types of dental implants. However, due to limitations of study, these issues remain to be further investigated in future randomized controlled clinical trials. PMID:25961004

  3. Disease Management Project Breast Cancer in Hesse – 5-Year Survival Data

    PubMed Central

    Jackisch, C.; Funk, A.; König, K.; Lubbe, D.; Misselwitz, B.; Wagner, U.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: The Disease Management Project Breast Cancer (DMP Breast Cancer) was first launched in Hesse in 2004. The project is supported by the health insurance companies in Hesse and the Professional Association of Gynaecologists in Hesse. The aim is to offer structured treatment programmes to all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Hesse by creating intersectoral cooperations between coordinating clinics, associated hospitals and gynaecologists in private practice who registered in the DMP programme. Method: Between 1 January 2005 and 30 June 2011, 13 973 women were enrolled in the DMP programme. Results: After data cleansing, survival rates were calculated for a total of 11 214 women. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 86.3 %; survival rates according to tumour stage on presentation were 92.2 % (pT1) and 82.3 % (pT2), respectively. The impact of steroid hormone receptor status on survival (87.8 % for receptor-positive cancers vs. 78.9 % for receptor-negative cancers) and of age at first diagnosis on survival (≤ 35 years = 91 %) were calculated. Conclusion: The project showed that intersectoral cooperation led to significant improvements in the quality of treatment over time, as measured by quality indicators and outcomes after treatment. PMID:24882878

  4. Predictors of long term survival after hepatic resection for hilar cholangiocarcinoma: A retrospective study of 5-year survivors

    PubMed Central

    Abd ElWahab, Mohamed; El Nakeeb, Ayman; El Hanafy, Ehab; Sultan, Ahmad M; Elghawalby, Ahmed; Askr, Waleed; Ali, Mahmoud; Abd El Gawad, Mohamed; Salah, Tarek

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To determine predictors of long term survival after resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HC) by comparing patients surviving > 5 years with those who survived < 5 years. METHODS: This is a retrospective study of patients with pathologically proven HC who underwent surgical resection at the Gastroenterology Surgical Center, Mansoura University, Egypt between January 2002 and April 2013. All data of the patients were collected from the medical records. Patients were divided into two groups according to their survival: Patients surviving less than 5 years and those who survived > 5 years. RESULTS: There were 34 (14%) long term survivors (5 year survivors) among the 243 patients. Five-year survivors were younger at diagnosis than those surviving less than 5 years (mean age, 50.47 ± 4.45 vs 54.59 ± 4.98, P = 0.001). Gender, clinical presentation, preoperative drainage, preoperative serum bilirubin, albumin and serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase were similar between the two groups. The level of CA 19-9 was significantly higher in patients surviving < 5 years (395.71 ± 31.43 vs 254.06 ± 42.19, P = 0.0001). Univariate analysis demonstrated nine variables to be significantly associated with survival > 5 year, including young age (P = 0.001), serum CA19-9 (P = 0.0001), non-cirrhotic liver (P = 0.02), major hepatic resection (P = 0.001), caudate lobe resection (P = 0.006), well differentiated tumour (P = 0.03), lymph node status (0.008), R0 resection margin (P = 0.0001) and early postoperative liver cell failure (P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Liver status, resection of caudate lobe, lymph node status, R0 resection and CA19-9 were demonstrated to be independent risk factors for long term survival. PMID:27358676

  5. Clinical performance and survival of space maintainers: evaluation over a period of 5 years.

    PubMed

    Rajab, Lamis D

    2002-01-01

    The study investigated the clinical performance of 387 space maintainers fitted in 358 patients aged from 3 to 9 years in the Department of Pediatric Dentistry at the Faculty of Dentistry-University of Jordan from 1996 to 2000. Failure occurred in 119 appliances (30.7%), of which 49.6% were due to solder breakage, 32.8% from cement loss, 11% from soft tissue lesions, 4.2% from eruption interference, and 2.5% were completely lost. By using the Kaplan-Meier method, the estimated median survival time for space maintainers was 18 months. Lingual arches had the lowest median survival time of 14 months. Bands and loops, Nance appliances, and removable partial dentures had similar probability of survival. Fixed bilateral mandibular appliances recorded lower survival time than fixed bilateral maxillary appliances. Gender, age, type of dentition, fixed vs. removable, year of placement of the appliance and number of space maintainers fitted simultaneously in the same patient had no significant effect on survival of the appliances.

  6. Microscopy image analysis of p63 immunohistochemically stained laryngeal cancer lesions for predicting patient 5-year survival.

    PubMed

    Ninos, Konstantinos; Kostopoulos, Spiros; Kalatzis, Ioannis; Sidiropoulos, Konstantinos; Ravazoula, Panagiota; Sakellaropoulos, George; Panayiotakis, George; Economou, George; Cavouras, Dionisis

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to design a microscopy image analysis (MIA) system for predicting the 5-year survival of patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma, employing histopathology images of lesions, which had been immunohistochemically (IHC) stained for p63 expression. Biopsy materials from 42 patients, with verified laryngeal cancer and follow-up, were selected from the archives of the University Hospital of Patras, Greece. Twenty six patients had survived more than 5 years and 16 less than 5 years after the first diagnosis. Histopathology images were IHC stained for p63 expression. Images were first processed by a segmentation method for isolating the p63-expressed nuclei. Seventy-seven features were evaluated regarding texture, shape, and physical topology of nuclei, p63 staining, and patient-specific data. Those features, the probabilistic neural network classifier, the leave-one-out (LOO), and the bootstrap cross-validation methods, were used to design the MIA-system for assessing the 5-year survival of patients with laryngeal cancer. MIA-system accuracy was about 90 % and 85 %, employing the LOO and the Bootstrap methods, respectively. The image texture of p63-expressed nuclei appeared coarser and contained more edges in the 5-year non-survivor group. These differences were at a statistically significant level (p < 0.05). In conclusion, this study has proposed an MIA-system that may be of assistance to physicians, as a second opinion tool in assessing the 5-year survival of patients with laryngeal cancer, and it has revealed useful information regarding differences in nuclei texture between 5-year survivors and non-survivors. PMID:26285779

  7. Survival of rock-colonizing organisms after 1.5 years in outer space.

    PubMed

    Onofri, Silvano; de la Torre, Rosa; de Vera, Jean-Pierre; Ott, Sieglinde; Zucconi, Laura; Selbmann, Laura; Scalzi, Giuliano; Venkateswaran, Kasthuri J; Rabbow, Elke; Sánchez Iñigo, Francisco J; Horneck, Gerda

    2012-05-01

    Cryptoendolithic microbial communities and epilithic lichens have been considered as appropriate candidates for the scenario of lithopanspermia, which proposes a natural interplanetary exchange of organisms by means of rocks that have been impact ejected from their planet of origin. So far, the hardiness of these terrestrial organisms in the severe and hostile conditions of space has not been tested over extended periods of time. A first long-term (1.5 years) exposure experiment in space was performed with a variety of rock-colonizing eukaryotic organisms at the International Space Station on board the European EXPOSE-E facility. Organisms were selected that are especially adapted to cope with the environmental extremes of their natural habitats. It was found that some-but not all-of those most robust microbial communities from extremely hostile regions on Earth are also partially resistant to the even more hostile environment of outer space, including high vacuum, temperature fluctuation, the full spectrum of extraterrestrial solar electromagnetic radiation, and cosmic ionizing radiation. Although the reported experimental period of 1.5 years in space is not comparable with the time spans of thousands or millions of years believed to be required for lithopanspermia, our data provide first evidence of the differential hardiness of cryptoendolithic communities in space.

  8. [A report of 40 cases of esophageal carcinoma surviving for more than 5 years after treatment with drugs].

    PubMed

    Wang, R L

    1993-07-01

    From August 1974 to January 1987, 650 cases of moderately and advanced esophageal carcinoma were treated with a combination of chemotherapy and Rabdosia rubescens or Rabdosia rubescens and/or tradition chinese medicinal prescription. After treatment, 40 patients survived for over 5 years (5-year survival rate 6.15%): 32 for over 6 years, 23 for more than 10 years, 5 for more than 15 years and 20 die of tumors (16 cases) or other diseases (4 cases). There were 20 patients who are still living and some of them have been living for more than 18 years. Analyzing the data, it is believed that the age, the state of activity, the length of illness, the effectiveness of primary treatment, the multi-course extensive therapy, long-term maintenance treatment, etc, are all important factors affecting the results of drug treatment. PMID:8174469

  9. Estimating rates of land falling US hurricanes on a 5-year timescale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coughlin, K.; Turner, J.; Jewson, S.; Bellone, E.; Rowlands, D.; Laepple, T.

    2010-03-01

    Atlantic hurricanes are the costliest of US natural disasters. Their frequency, intensity and likelihood of landfall are highly variable, being impacted by sea-surface and upper-atmosphere temperatures, wind shear, El Niño and other climatic variables. Risk Management Solutions has created a set of over 500,000 synthetic Atlantic hurricanes for use in catastrophe modelling. Until 2005, the rates associated with each of these storms were based on the averaged historical rate since 1900. However, there is evidence that hurricane frequencies are non-stationary and this means that long-term averaged rates may not be the best estimate of future rates. Furthermore, the insurance/reinsurance industry is particularly interested in 5-year projections of land falling US hurricanes. We show, using hindcasting, that simple statistical models can significantly improve estimates of the number of Atlantic hurricanes hitting land on this timescale.

  10. A prospective study of the survival of chemically activated anterior resin composite restorations in general dental practice: 5-year results.

    PubMed

    van Noort, R; Davis, L G

    1993-08-01

    The principals of 26 general dental practices agreed to use six chemically activated resin composite restorative materials to restore Class III and Class V lesions and record information concerning their performance over a period of 5 years. The information collected was analysed by actuarial methods to assess the clinical longevity and reasons for replacement as perceived by the dentists operating in the General Dental Service in England. At the end of 5 years, 14 dentists provided sufficient returns for their data to be considered suitable for analysis. The database consisted of 2399 Class III and 1093 Class V restorations. The overall probability of survival at 5 years of Class III and Class V restorations was 62.9% and 71.8% respectively. The difference in performance between the six restorative materials was small, with the probability of survival varying from 70.4 +/- 2.9% to 56.3 +/- 2.9% for the Class III restorations and 78.6 +/- 3.7% to 67.7 +/- 4.2% for the Class V restorations. The main reasons for replacement were general surface discoloration, secondary caries and fracture. The chemically activated composite restorative materials available at the time of initiating this study produced comparable performances in general dental practice when used without enamel and dentine bonding techniques. This suggests that more general practice-based clinical studies are needed to determine whether or not improvements in materials and techniques are effectively transferred to the general practice situation.

  11. Disease Management Project Breast Cancer in Hesse - 5-Year Survival Data: Successful Model of Intersectoral Communication for Quality Assurance.

    PubMed

    Jackisch, C; Funk, A; König, K; Lubbe, D; Misselwitz, B; Wagner, U

    2014-03-01

    Introduction: The Disease Management Project Breast Cancer (DMP Breast Cancer) was first launched in Hesse in 2004. The project is supported by the health insurance companies in Hesse and the Professional Association of Gynaecologists in Hesse. The aim is to offer structured treatment programmes to all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Hesse by creating intersectoral cooperations between coordinating clinics, associated hospitals and gynaecologists in private practice who registered in the DMP programme. Method: Between 1 January 2005 and 30 June 2011, 13 973 women were enrolled in the DMP programme. Results: After data cleansing, survival rates were calculated for a total of 11 214 women. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 86.3 %; survival rates according to tumour stage on presentation were 92.2 % (pT1) and 82.3 % (pT2), respectively. The impact of steroid hormone receptor status on survival (87.8 % for receptor-positive cancers vs. 78.9 % for receptor-negative cancers) and of age at first diagnosis on survival (≤ 35 years = 91 %) were calculated. Conclusion: The project showed that intersectoral cooperation led to significant improvements in the quality of treatment over time, as measured by quality indicators and outcomes after treatment. PMID:24882878

  12. Disease Management Project Breast Cancer in Hesse - 5-Year Survival Data: Successful Model of Intersectoral Communication for Quality Assurance.

    PubMed

    Jackisch, C; Funk, A; König, K; Lubbe, D; Misselwitz, B; Wagner, U

    2014-03-01

    Introduction: The Disease Management Project Breast Cancer (DMP Breast Cancer) was first launched in Hesse in 2004. The project is supported by the health insurance companies in Hesse and the Professional Association of Gynaecologists in Hesse. The aim is to offer structured treatment programmes to all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Hesse by creating intersectoral cooperations between coordinating clinics, associated hospitals and gynaecologists in private practice who registered in the DMP programme. Method: Between 1 January 2005 and 30 June 2011, 13 973 women were enrolled in the DMP programme. Results: After data cleansing, survival rates were calculated for a total of 11 214 women. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 86.3 %; survival rates according to tumour stage on presentation were 92.2 % (pT1) and 82.3 % (pT2), respectively. The impact of steroid hormone receptor status on survival (87.8 % for receptor-positive cancers vs. 78.9 % for receptor-negative cancers) and of age at first diagnosis on survival (≤ 35 years = 91 %) were calculated. Conclusion: The project showed that intersectoral cooperation led to significant improvements in the quality of treatment over time, as measured by quality indicators and outcomes after treatment.

  13. Long term survival of radiotherapy for esophageal cancer: analysis of 1136 patients surviving for more than 5 years

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Z.Y.; Gu, X.; Zhao, S.

    1983-12-01

    One thousand one hundred and thirty-six patients surviving for more than five years after radiotherapy were studied. The important prognostic factors are: lesion less than 5 cm in length, lesion located in the upper-third segment and lesion that is radiosensitive. The radiation dose given to long term survivors varies greatly, i.e., 2700 to 9300 rad. Yet, for the sensitive type of lesion, doses lower than 5000 rad could also effect a cure. The delivery of an optimum dose determined by serial examinations during radiotherapy could improve the result of treatment. For local recurrent lesions, the value of a second course of radiation is extremely limited and surgery is the only means to offer a cure. For metastasis in the lymph nodes, radiation offers some hope of cure, although the long term outcome may not be satisfactory. For second primary cancer of the esophagus, aggressive radiation still gives encouraging results.

  14. A practice-based clinical evaluation of the survival and success of metal-ceramic and zirconia molar crowns: 5-year results.

    PubMed

    Rinke, S; Kramer, K; Bürgers, R; Roediger, M

    2016-02-01

    This practice-based study evaluates the survival and success of conventionally luted metal-ceramic and zirconia molar crowns fabricated by using a prolonged cooling period for the veneering porcelain. Fifty-three patients were treated from 07/2008 to 07/2009 with either metal-ceramic crowns (MCC) or zirconia crowns (ZC). Forty-five patients (26 female) with 91 restorations (obser-vational period: 64.0 ± 4.8 months) participated in a clinical follow-up examination and were included in the study. Estimated cumulative survival (ECSv), success (ECSc) and veneering ceramic success (ECVCSc) were calculated (Kaplan-Meier) and analysed by the crown fabrication technique and the position of the restoration (Cox regression model) (P < 0.05). Five complete failures (MCC: 2, ZC: 3) were recorded (5-year ECSv: MCC: 97.6%, (95% confidence interval (95%-CI): [93%; 100%]/ZC: 94.0%, (95%-CI): [87%; 100%]). Of the MCCs (n = 41), 85.0%, [95%-CI: (77%; 96%)] remained event-free, whereas the ECSc for the ZCs (n = 50) was 74.3% (95%-CI): [61%; 87%]. No significant differences in ECSv (P = 0.51), ECSc (P = 0.43) and ECVCSc (P = 0.36) were detected between the two fabrication techniques. Restorations placed on terminal abutments (n = 44) demonstrated a significantly lower ECVCSc (P = 0.035), (5-year VCF-rate: 14.8%) than crowns placed on tooth-neighboured abutments (n = 47), (5-year VCF-rate: 4.3%). In the present study, zirconia molar crowns demonstrated a 5-year ECSv, ECSc and ECVCSc comparable to MCCs. Irrespective of the fabrication technique, crowns on terminal abutments bear a significantly increased risk for VCFs. Clinical investigations with an increased number of restorations are needed.

  15. Survival and other clinical outcomes of maintenance hemodialysis patients in Taiwan: a 5-year multicenter follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Chen, Huan-Sheng; Cheng, Chun-Ting; Hou, Chun-Cheng; Liou, Hung-Hsiang; Lim, Paik-Seong

    2014-10-01

    The increasing aging and diabetes mellitus (DM) patients in dialysis population make the quality maintenance of dialysis an imperative issue. Recently, an increasing number of dialysis centers were run by private dialysis providers, many of which apply quality assurance programs and performance management systems to dialysis care. We studied patients in dialysis facilities in Taiwan run by a private chain to see clinical outcomes of centers operating under these systemic strategies. Hemodialysis patients from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2012 in 25 dialysis facilities in Taiwan, which received the management and consultation from a dialysis service provider, NephroCare (NC), were included. Data pivotal to quality of dialysis were analyzed. During a 5-year interval, 5161 hemodialysis patients were included. For volume control, the proportion of patients with weight gain ≥4.5% decreases from 41.7% to 30.2%. Mean Kt/V is 1.74 ± 0.28. Mean albumin level is 3.92 ± 0.38 g/dL. Patients with phosphate <5.5 mg/dL is up to 71.8%. The mean hemoglobin level is 10.70 ± 1.40 g/dL. More than 80% of patients have adequate iron status. Further, 73% of patients use native arteriovenous fistula. Hospitalization-free survival rate was 56% at the fifth year. Patient survival rate at the fifth year was 66.4%. Overall clinical performances were maintained very stable in NC facilities from this temporal data analysis. The hospitalization and survival rate also compare favorably with those reported internationally. These results warrant further studies to justify the application of this kind of quality assurance programs and performance management systems in dialysis care. PMID:24766262

  16. Multiple tumours in survival estimates.

    PubMed

    Rosso, Stefano; De Angelis, Roberta; Ciccolallo, Laura; Carrani, Eugenio; Soerjomataram, Isabelle; Grande, Enrico; Zigon, Giulia; Brenner, Hermann

    2009-04-01

    In international comparisons of cancer registry based survival it is common practice to restrict the analysis to first primary tumours and exclude multiple cancers. The probability of correctly detecting subsequent cancers depends on the registry's running time, which results in different proportions of excluded patients and may lead to biased comparisons. We evaluated the impact on the age-standardised relative survival estimates of also including multiple primary tumours. Data from 2,919,023 malignant cancers from 69 European cancer registries participating in the EUROCARE-4 collaborative study were used. A total of 183,683 multiple primary tumours were found, with an overall proportion of 6.3% over all the considered cancers, ranging from 0.4% (Naples, Italy) to 12.9% (Iceland). The proportion of multiple tumours varied greatly by type of tumour, being higher for those with high incidence and long survival (breast, prostate and colon-rectum). Five-year relative survival was lower when including patients with multiple cancers. For all cancers combined the average difference was -0.4 percentage points in women and -0.7 percentage points in men, and was greater for older registries. Inclusion of multiple tumours led to lower survival in 44 out of 45 cancer sites analysed, with the greatest differences found for larynx (-1.9%), oropharynx (-1.5%), and penis (-1.3%). Including multiple primary tumours in survival estimates for international comparison is advisable because it reduces the bias due to different observation periods, age, registration quality and completeness of registration. The general effect of inclusion is to reduce survival estimates by a variable amount depending on the proportion of multiple primaries and cancer site.

  17. Drifter-based estimate of the 5-year dispersal of Fukushima-derived radionuclides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rypina, I.; Jayne, S. R.; Yoshida, S.; Macdonald, A. M.; Buesseler, K. O.

    2014-12-01

    Employing some 40 years of North Pacific drifter-track observations from the Global Drifter Program database, statistics defining the horizontal spread of radionuclides from Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean are investigated over a time-scale of 5 years. A novel two-iteration method is employed to make the best use of the available drifter data. Drifter-based predictions of the temporal progression of the leading edge of the radionuclide distribution are compared to observed radionuclide concentrations from research surveys occupied in 2012 and 2013. Excellent agreement between the drifter-based predictions and the observations is found.

  18. Drifter-based estimate of the 5 year dispersal of Fukushima-derived radionuclides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rypina, I. I.; Jayne, S. R.; Yoshida, S.; Macdonald, A. M.; Buesseler, K.

    2014-11-01

    Employing some 40 years of North Pacific drifter-track observations from the Global Drifter Program database, statistics defining the horizontal spread of radionuclides from Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean are investigated over a time scale of 5 years. A novel two-iteration method is employed to make the best use of the available drifter data. Drifter-based predictions of the temporal progression of the leading edge of the radionuclide distribution are compared to observed radionuclide concentrations from research surveys occupied in 2012 and 2013. Good agreement between the drifter-based predictions and the observations is found.

  19. Estimated Cerebrospina Fluid Pressure and the 5-Year Incidence of Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma in a Chinese Population

    PubMed Central

    Zhong, Hua; Tao, Yijin; Yuan, Yuansheng; Pan, Chen-Wei

    2016-01-01

    Purpose We aim to assess the longitudinal association between baseline estimated cerebrospinal fluid pressure (CSFP) and 5-year incident primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) in a population-based sample of Bai Chinese living in rural China. Methods Among the 2133 Bai Chinese aged 50 years or older who had participated in the baseline examination of the Yunnan Minority Eye Study, 1520 (71.3%) attended the follow-up examination after five years and 1485 were at risk of developing POAG. Participants underwent comprehensive ophthalmic examinations at both baseline and follow-up surveys. CSFP in mmHg was estimated as 0.55 × body mass index (kg/m2) + 0.16 × diastolic blood pressure (mmHg)-0.18 × age (years)-1.91. Glaucoma was defined using the International Society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology Classification criteria. Multivariate logistic regression models were established to determine the association between baseline CSFP and incident POAG. Results After a mean follow-up time of 5 years, 19 new cases of POAG were detected, with an incidence rate of 1.3% (95% confidence interval, 0.7–1.9%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for age, gender, education, intraocular pressure, central corneal thickness, hypertension and diabetes, no significant associations, nor any trends, were evident between baseline estimated CSFP and incident POAG. The association between estimated CSFP per mmHg increase in baseline and 5-year incidence of POAG was also non-significant, with adjusted relative risk of 0.96 (P = 0.11) in multivariate analysis. Conclusions This longitudinal cohort study does not support previously observed cross-sectional association between estimated CSFP and POAG in population-based studies. PMID:27611879

  20. Postoperative Complications, In-Hospital Mortality and 5-Year Survival After Surgical Resection for Patients with a Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumor: A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Jilesen, Anneke P J; van Eijck, Casper H J; in't Hof, K H; van Dieren, S; Gouma, Dirk J; van Dijkum, Els J M Nieveen

    2016-03-01

    Studies on postoperative complications and survival in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET) are sparse and randomized controlled trials are not available. We reviewed all studies on postoperative complications and survival after resection of pNET. A systematic search was performed in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE and EMBASE from 2000-2013. Inclusion criteria were studies of resected pNET, which described postoperative complications separately for each surgical procedure and/or 5-year survival after resection. Prospective and retrospective studies were pooled separately and overall pooled if heterogeneity was below 75%. The random-effect model was used. Overall, 2643 studies were identified and after full-text analysis 62 studies were included. Pancreatic fistula (PF) rate of the prospective studies after tumor enucleation was 45%; PF-rates after distal pancreatectomy, pancreatoduodenectomy, or central pancreatectomy were, respectively, 14-14-58%. Delayed gastric emptying rates were, respectively, 5-5-18-16%. Postoperative hemorrhage rates were, respectively, 6-1-7-4%. In-hospital mortality rates were, respectively, 3-4-6-4%. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) of resected pNET without synchronous resected liver metastases were, respectively, 85-93%. Heterogeneity between included studies on 5-year OS in patients with synchronous resected liver metastases was too high to pool all studies. The 5-year DSS in patients with liver metastases was 80%. Morbidity after pancreatic resection for pNET was mainly caused by PF. Liver resection in patients with liver metastases seems to have a positive effect on DSS. To reduce heterogeneity, ISGPS criteria and uniform patient groups should be used in the analysis of postoperative outcome and survival.

  1. A Prospective Hospital-based Surveillance to Estimate Rotavirus Disease Burden in Bhutanese Children under 5 Years of Age

    PubMed Central

    Wangchuk, Sonam; Dorji, Tshering; Tsheten; Tshering, Karchung; Zangmo, Sangay; Pem Tshering, Kunzang; Dorji, Tandin; Nishizono, Akira; Ahmed, Kamruddin

    2015-01-01

    As part of efforts to develop an informed policy for rotavirus vaccination, this prospective study was conducted to estimate the burden of rotavirus diarrhea among children less than 5 years old attended to the Department of Pediatrics, Jigme Dorji Wangchuk National Referral Hospital (JDWNRH), Thimphu, Bhutan. The duration of the study was three years, extending from February 2010 through December 2012. We estimated the frequency of hospitalization in the pediatric ward and dehydration treatment unit (DTU) for diarrhea and the number of events attributable to rotavirus infection among children under 5 years of age. During the study period, a total of 284 children (1 in 45) were hospitalized in the pediatric ward, and 2,220 (1 in 6) in the DTU with diarrhea among children residing in the Thimphu district. Group A rotavirus was detected in 32.5% and 18.8% of the stool samples from children hospitalized in the pediatric ward, respectively. Overall, 22.3% of the stool samples were rotavirus-positive, and the majority (90.8%) of them was detected in children under 2 years of age. From this study, we estimated that the annual incidence of hospitalization in the pediatric ward and DTU due to rotavirus diarrhea was 2.4/1000 (95% CI 1.7–3.4) and 10.8/1000 (95% CI 9.1–12.7) children, respectively. This study revealed that rotavirus is a major cause of diarrhea in Bhutanese children in Thimphu district and since no study has been performed previously, represents an important finding for policy discussions regarding the adoption of a rotavirus vaccine in Bhutan. PMID:25859154

  2. Estimating survival of radio-tagged birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bunck, C.M.; Pollock, K.H.; Lebreton, J.-D.; North, P.M.

    1993-01-01

    Parametric and nonparametric methods for estimating survival of radio-tagged birds are described. The general assumptions of these methods are reviewed. An estimate based on the assumption of constant survival throughout the period is emphasized in the overview of parametric methods. Two nonparametric methods, the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the survival funcrion and the log rank test, are explained in detail The link between these nonparametric methods and traditional capture-recapture models is discussed aloag with considerations in designing studies that use telemetry techniques to estimate survival.

  3. COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND POLARIZATION AND TEMPERATURE POWER SPECTRA ESTIMATION USING LINEAR COMBINATION OF WMAP 5 YEAR MAPS

    SciTech Connect

    Samal, Pramoda Kumar; Jain, Pankaj; Saha, Rajib; Prunet, Simon; Souradeep, Tarun

    2010-05-01

    We estimate cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization and temperature power spectra using Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 5 year foreground contaminated maps. The power spectrum is estimated by using a model-independent method, which does not utilize directly the diffuse foreground templates nor the detector noise model. The method essentially consists of two steps: (1) removal of diffuse foregrounds contamination by making linear combination of individual maps in harmonic space and (2) cross-correlation of foreground cleaned maps to minimize detector noise bias. For the temperature power spectrum we also estimate and subtract residual unresolved point source contamination in the cross-power spectrum using the point source model provided by the WMAP science team. Our TT, TE, and EE power spectra are in good agreement with the published results of the WMAP science team. We perform detailed numerical simulations to test for bias in our procedure. We find that the bias is small in almost all cases. A negative bias at low l in TT power spectrum has been pointed out in an earlier publication. We find that the bias-corrected quadrupole power (l(l + 1)C{sub l} /2{pi}) is 532 {mu}K{sup 2}, approximately 2.5 times the estimate (213.4 {mu}K{sup 2}) made by the WMAP team.

  4. Estimating rates of land falling US hurricanes on a 5-year timescale: applications for catastrophe risk modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, J.; Coughlin, K.; Laepple, T.; Jewson, S.; Bellone, E.; Rowlands, D.

    2009-12-01

    Atlantic hurricanes are the costliest of US natural disasters. Their frequency, intensity and likelihood of landfall are highly variable, being impacted by sea-surface and upper-atmosphere temperatures, wind shear, El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation and other climatic variables. Risk Management Solutions has created a set of over 500,000 synthetic Atlantic hurricanes for use in catastrophe modelling. Until 2005, the rates associated with each of these storms were based on the averaged historical rate since 1900. However, there is evidence that hurricane frequencies are non-stationary and this means that a long-term average may not be the best estimate of future rates. Furthermore, the insurance/reinsurance industry is particularly interested in 5-year projections of land falling US hurricanes. We show, using out-of-sample hindcast tests, that simple statistical models can significantly improve projections on this timescale, when compared to the long-term average.

  5. Estimating rates of land falling US hurricanes on a 5-year timescale: applications for catastrophe risk modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Jessica

    2010-05-01

    Atlantic hurricanes are the costliest of US natural disasters. Their frequency, intensity and likelihood of landfall are highly variable, being impacted by sea-surface and upper-atmosphere temperatures, wind shear, El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation and other climatic variables. Risk Management Solutions has created a set of over 1,000,000 synthetic Atlantic hurricanes for use in catastrophe modelling. Until 2005, the rates associated with each of these storms were based on the averaged historical rate since 1900. However, there is evidence that hurricane frequencies are non-stationary and this means that a long-term average may not be the best estimate of future rates. Furthermore, the insurance/reinsurance industry is particularly interested in 5-year projections of land falling US hurricanes. We show, using out-of-sample hindcast tests, that statistical models can significantly improve projections on this timescale, when compared to the long-term average.

  6. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders Among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    PubMed Central

    Morrow, Connie E.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan C.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2016-01-01

    This study estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n=476) with prenatal drug exposures documented by maternal interview, urine and meconium assays. Study participants included 400 African-American children from the birth cohort, 208 cocaine-exposed (CE) and 192 non-cocaine-exposed (NCE) who attended a 5-year follow-up assessment and whose caregiver completed the Computerized Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children. Under a generalized linear model (logistic link), Fisher’s exact methods were used to estimate the CE-associated relative risk (RR) of these disorders. Results indicated a modest but statistically robust elevation of ADHD risk associated with increasing levels of PCE (p<0.05). Binary comparison of CE versus NCE children indicated no CE-associated RR. Estimated cumulative incidence proportions among CE children were 2.9% for ADHD (vs 3.1% NCE); 1.4% for SAD (vs 1.6% NCE); and 4.3% for ODD (vs 6.8% NCE). Findings offer suggestive evidence of increased risk of ADHD (but not ODD or SAD) in relation to an increasing gradient of PCE during gestation. PMID:27761099

  7. Long-term effect of the North Carolina graduated driver licensing system on licensed driver crash incidence: a 5-year survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Masten, Scott V; Foss, Robert D

    2010-11-01

    Several studies document the success of graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems in reducing young teen crash rates, but it is not yet clear whether any portion of the crash reduction is achieved by producing more capable drivers. The purpose of this study was to determine whether young teen drivers licensed under the North Carolina GDL system remain crash-free longer than those licensed prior to GDL, independent of the crude reductions in exposure (i.e., decreasing and delaying licensure) that may be responsible for most documented effects of GDL. Survival analysis was used to compare retrospective cohorts of 16-17 year olds before (n=105,569) and after (n=327,054) the North Carolina GDL system was implemented. The crash incidence of GDL-licensed 16-17 year olds (combined) was 10% lower than that for pre-GDL teens for at least 5 years after being licensed to drive independently (hazard ratio [HR]=0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.89, 0.91). However, more refined analysis revealed the reductions to only be among females (7%; HR=0.93; CI=0.91, 0.94) and males (15%; HR=0.85, CI=0.84, 0.87) licensed at age 16 and not among females (0%; HR=1.00; CI=0.95, 1.06) and males (0%; HR=1.00; CI=0.92, 1.09) licensed at age 17. Sixteen-year-old drivers licensed under the North Carolina GDL system experienced lower first-crash incidence during the first 5 years of unsupervised driving than did those licensed under the previous system. The benefits are greater for males, who tend to have higher crash rates. The findings contradict conventional wisdom that the entire benefit of GDL results merely from decreasing or delaying licensure among young drivers.

  8. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrow, Connie E.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan L.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2009-01-01

    We estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n = 476) with prenatal drug exposures documented…

  9. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma.

    PubMed

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D; Wancata, Lauren M; Muenz, Daniel G; Haymart, Megan R; Wong, Sandra L

    2016-02-01

    Overall cancer incidence is decreasing, whereas melanoma cases are increasing. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients the farther they are from time of diagnosis. The effect of age and stage on a melanoma patient's conditional survival estimate is unknown. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were utilized to identify newly diagnosed cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95 041), from 1998 to 2005, with up to 12 years of follow-up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression analysis and transformed to estimated conditional 5-year survival. Localized melanoma patients have an excellent 5-year survival at diagnosis and over subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70-79 years) with younger patients (<30 years): hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01-4.84] and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93-2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87-1.53). Over time, conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease, neither is the age gradient. Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanomas are initially impacted by older age, with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional 5-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision-making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  10. Up-to-date and precise estimates of cancer patient survival: model-based period analysis.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Hermann; Hakulinen, Timo

    2006-10-01

    Monitoring of progress in cancer patient survival by cancer registries should be as up-to-date as possible. Period analysis has been shown to provide more up-to-date survival estimates than do traditional methods of survival analysis. However, there is a trade-off between up-to-dateness and the precision of period estimates, in that increasing the up-to-dateness of survival estimates by restricting the analysis to a relatively short, recent time period, such as the most recent calendar year for which cancer registry data are available, goes along with a loss of precision. The authors propose a model-based approach to maximize the up-to-dateness of period estimates at minimal loss of precision. The approach is illustrated for monitoring of 5-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with one of 20 common forms of cancer in Finland between 1953 and 2002 by use of data from the nationwide Finnish Cancer Registry. It is shown that the model-based approach provides survival estimates that are as up-to-date as the most up-to-date conventional period estimates and at the same time much more precise than the latter. The modeling approach may further enhance the use of period analysis for deriving up-to-date cancer survival rates.

  11. [A 5-year survival case of locally advanced cancer of the pancreatic body treated by distal pancreatectomy with en bloc celiac axis resection after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy].

    PubMed

    Iseki, Masahiro; Motoi, Fuyuhiko; Mizuma, Masamichi; Hayashi, Hiroki; Nakagawa, Kei; Okada, Takaho; Otsuka, Hideo; Ottomo, Shigeru; Sakata, Naoaki; Fukase, Koji; Yoshida, Hiroshi; Onogawa, Tohru; Naito, Takeshi; Katayose, Yu; Egawa, Shinichi; Unno, Michiaki

    2012-11-01

    A 59-year-old man was diagnosed with locally advanced cancer of the pancreatic body, involving the nerve plexus around the celiac axis, the common hepatic artery, and the splenic artery. He was treated with a combination of irradiation (2 Gy/day, total 24 Gy) and 600 mg/m2 of gemcitabine(GEM)biweekly. The tumor size and the involved plexus area were not diminished, but CA19-9 was reduced by half. Distal pancreatectomy with en bloc celiac axis resection(DP-CAR)was performed. The histological findings indicated extensive invasion into the nerve plexus, including that adjacent to the stump of the pancreas, and thus the R classification was R1. After surgery, 1,000 mg/m2 of GEM was administered biweekly. The chemotherapy has been performed for 5 years to prevent local and systemic recurrence. No recurrence has been found 5 years after surgery. Multidisciplinary treatment, combined with neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy, curative-intent resection, and postoperative chemotherapy is important for effective treatment of locally advanced pancreatic cancer. PMID:23267939

  12. Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival

    PubMed Central

    Delavande, Adeline; Rohwedder, Susann

    2013-01-01

    Cross-country comparisons of differential survival by socioeconomic status (SES) are useful in many domains. Yet, to date, such studies have been rare. Reliably estimating differential survival in a single country has been challenging because it requires rich panel data with a large sample size. Cross-country estimates have proven even more difficult because the measures of SES need to be comparable internationally. We present an alternative method for acquiring information on differential survival by SES. Rather than using observations of actual survival, we relate individuals’ subjective probabilities of survival to SES variables in cross section. To show that subjective survival probabilities are informative proxies for actual survival when estimating differential survival, we compare estimates of differential survival based on actual survival with estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival for the same sample. The results are remarkably similar. We then use this approach to compare differential survival by SES for 10 European countries and the United States. Wealthier people have higher survival probabilities than those who are less wealthy, but the strength of the association differs across countries. Nations with a smaller gradient appear to be Belgium, France, and Italy, while the United States, England, and Sweden appear to have a larger gradient. PMID:22042664

  13. Clinical value of morphometric and DNA flow cytometric variables as independent predictors of survival in epithelial ovarian carcinoma: a 5-year follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Veerman, Margot M; van der Wurff, Anneke A M; van de Water, Marije; Kruitwagen, Roy F P M; Feijen, Harrie W H; Vos, Maria Caroline

    2009-09-01

    The aim of this follow-up study is to validate the clinical significance of quantitative morphometric and DNA flow cytometric variables as independent prognostic factors of overall survival and progression-free survival in epithelial ovarian carcinoma. Tumor samples were collected from 135 patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma at 3 hospitals in the Netherlands. Evaluated clinico-pathologic variables were age, histologic subtype, differentiation grade, clinical stage [International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO)], presence of ascites, serum CA-125, and the completeness of debulking surgery. Morphometry and DNA flow cytometric techniques were assessed on each tumor sample to determine the mitotic activity index (MAI), volume percentage epithelium, mean nuclear area (MNA), standard deviation of MNA (SD MNA), nuclear perimeter (NP), and DNA ploidy. Univariate analysis showed that differentiation grade, FIGO stage, presence of ascites, preoperative CA-125 levels, DNA ploidy, and MAI, NP, and MNA were of significant prognostic value. After multivariate analysis (using forward Cox proportional hazard analysis), only differentiation grade and FIGO stage remained significant. From this study, we can conclude that morphometry and DNA flow cytometry are not independent prognosticators and therefore have no clinical value in predicting prognosis in ovarian carcinoma.

  14. Estimating restricted mean treatment effects with stacked survival models.

    PubMed

    Wey, Andrew; Vock, David M; Connett, John; Rudser, Kyle

    2016-08-30

    The difference in restricted mean survival times between two groups is a clinically relevant summary measure. With observational data, there may be imbalances in confounding variables between the two groups. One approach to account for such imbalances is estimating a covariate-adjusted restricted mean difference by modeling the covariate-adjusted survival distribution and then marginalizing over the covariate distribution. Because the estimator for the restricted mean difference is defined by the estimator for the covariate-adjusted survival distribution, it is natural to expect that a better estimator of the covariate-adjusted survival distribution is associated with a better estimator of the restricted mean difference. We therefore propose estimating restricted mean differences with stacked survival models. Stacked survival models estimate a weighted average of several survival models by minimizing predicted error. By including a range of parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric models, stacked survival models can robustly estimate a covariate-adjusted survival distribution and, therefore, the restricted mean treatment effect in a wide range of scenarios. We demonstrate through a simulation study that better performance of the covariate-adjusted survival distribution often leads to better mean squared error of the restricted mean difference although there are notable exceptions. In addition, we demonstrate that the proposed estimator can perform nearly as well as Cox regression when the proportional hazards assumption is satisfied and significantly better when proportional hazards is violated. Finally, the proposed estimator is illustrated with data from the United Network for Organ Sharing to evaluate post-lung transplant survival between large-volume and small-volume centers. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26934835

  15. [Congenital transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in Brazil: estimation of prevalence based on preliminary data of national serological surveys in children under 5 years old and other sources].

    PubMed

    Luquetti, Alejandro O; Ferreira, António Walter; Oliveira, Rosângela A; Tavares, Suelene B N; Rassi, Anis; Dias, João Carlos P; Prata, Aluizio

    2005-01-01

    A prevalence estimation of congenital transmission in Brazil is performed, based on several sources of recent data. From a serological survey conducted now in Brazil, with children below 5 years old, preliminary data from the state of Minas Gerais only 19/9,556 children did have antibodies against Trypanosoma cruzi. All 19 mothers were infected, but only one child persisted with antibodies on a second blood collection, hence diagnosed as congenital. The other were just passive transference of maternal antibodies. From a recent publication, 278 children born from 145 infected mothers were studied. Two cases (0.7%) were congenital. In other source, from 1,348 blood donors, 35 were born in non endemic areas. When 10 of them were called, 8 were born from infected mothers and five may be congenital. Finally, no infection was detected in 93 children born from 78 infected mothers. The reasons for this low prevalence are discussed, are lower than in other countries of the South Cone, that harbor also T. cruzi 2, but are unrecognized up to now.

  16. Population-based incidence and 5-year survival for hospital-admitted traumatic brain and spinal cord injury, Western Australia, 2003-2008.

    PubMed

    Moorin, Rachael; Miller, Ted R; Hendrie, Delia

    2014-09-01

    This study aimed at analysing first-time hospitalisations for traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) in Western Australia (WA), in terms of socio-demographic profile, cause of injury, relative risks and survival, using tabular and regression analyses of linked hospital discharge and mortality census files and comparing results with published standardised mortality rates (SMRs) for TBI. Participants were all 9,114 first hospital admissions for TBI or SCI from 7/2003 to 6/2008, linked to mortality census data through 12/2008, and the main outcome measures were number of cases by cause, SMRs in hospital and post-discharge by year through year 5. Road crashes accounted for 34 % of hospitalised TBI and 52 % of hospitalised SCI. 8,460 live TBI discharges experienced 580 deaths during 24,494 person-years of follow-up. The life-table expectation of deaths in the cohort was 164. Post-discharge SMRs were 7.66 in year 1, 3.86 in year 2 and averaged 2.31 in years 3 through 5. 317 live SCI discharges experienced 18 deaths during 929 years of follow-up. Post-discharge SMRs were 7.36 in year 1 and a fluctuating average of 2.13 in years 2 through 5. Use of data from model systems does not appear to yield biased SMRs. Similarly no systematic variation was observed between all-age studies and the more numerous studies that focused on those aged 14 to 16 and older. Based on two studies, SMRs for TBI, however, may be higher in year 2 post-discharge in Australia than elsewhere. That possibility and its cause warrant exploration. Expanding public TBI/SCI compensation in WA from road crash to all causes might triple TBI compensation and double SCI compensation. PMID:24952617

  17. Prostate-Specific Antigen at 4 to 5 Years After Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy Is a Strong Predictor of Disease-Free Survival

    SciTech Connect

    Lo, Andrea C.; Morris, W. James; Lapointe, Vincent; Hamm, Jeremy; Keyes, Mira; Pickles, Tom; McKenzie, Michael; Spadinger, Ingrid

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To determine (1) the prognostic utility of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at 45 to 60 months (48mPSA) after low-dose-rate prostate brachytherapy (LDR-PB); (2) the predictors of 48mPSA; and (3) the prognostic utility of directional trends between PSA levels at 24, 36, and 48 months after LDR-PB. Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2008, 2223 patients with low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer received LDR-PB monotherapy. A cohort of 1434 of these patients was identified with a documented 48mPSA and no evidence of disease relapse prior to the 48mPSA. In addition, a subset of this cohort (n=585) was identified with ≥72 months of follow-up and documented PSA values at both 24 and 36 months after implantation. Results: Median follow-up time was 76 months. Eight-year Kaplan-Meier disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 100% vs 73.4% for patients with 48mPSA ≤0.2 vs those with >0.2 ng/mL; 99.1% versus 53.8% for a 48mPSA threshold of ≤0.4 versus >0.4 ng/mL, respectively; and 97.3% versus 0% for a threshold of ≤1.0 versus >1.0 ng/mL, respectively. On multivariate analysis, the only factor predictive of DFS was 48mPSA (P<.0001). On subset analysis (n=585), 29 patients had a PSA rise (defined as >0.2 ng/mL) between 24 and 36 months, 24 patients had a rise between 36 and 48 months, and 11 patients had rises over both intervals. Failure rates in these patients were 52%, 79%, and 100%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, initial PSA, androgen deprivation therapy, and dose to 90% of the prostate significantly correlated with 48mPSA but together accounted for only ∼5% of its total variance. Conclusions: The 48mPSA after LDR-PB is highly predictive of long-term DFS. Patients with 48mPSA ≤0.4 ng/mL had a <1% risk of disease relapse at 8 years, whereas all patients with 48mPSA >1.0 ng/mL relapsed. Consecutive PSA rises of >0.2 ng/mL from 24 to 36 months and from 36 to 48 months were also highly predictive of subsequent failure.

  18. Developmental milestones record - 5 years

    MedlinePlus

    Normal childhood growth milestones - 5 years; Childhood growth milestones - 5 years; Growth milestones for children - 5 years ... Physical and motor skill milestones for a typical 5-year-old child include: Gains about 4 - 5 ...

  19. Contrasting treatment-specific survival using double-robust estimators

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Min; Schaubel, Douglas E.

    2014-01-01

    In settings where a randomized trial is infeasible, observational data are frequently used to compare treatment-specific survival. The average causal effect (ACE) can be used to make inference regarding treatment policies on patient populations, and a valid ACE estimator must account for imbalances with respect to treatment-specific covariate distributions. One method through which the ACE on survival can be estimated involves appropriately averaging over Cox-regression-based fitted survival functions. A second available method balances the treatment-specific covariate distributions through Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW), then contrasts weighted nonparametric survival function estimators. Since both methods have their advantages and disadvantages, we propose methods which essentially combine both estimators. The proposed methods are double-robust, in the sense that they are consistent if at least one of the two working regression models (i.e., logistic model for treatment, and Cox model for death hazard) is correct. The proposed methods involve estimating the ACE with respect to restricted mean survival time, defined as the area under the survival curve up to some pre-specified time point. Asymptotic results are derived and evaluated through simulation. We apply the proposed methods to estimate the ACE of donation-after-cardiac-death kidney transplantation using data obtained from multiple centers in the Netherlands. PMID:22807175

  20. Nest survival estimation: a review of alternatives to the Mayfield estimator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jehle, G.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Savidge, J.A.; Skagen, S.K.

    2004-01-01

    Reliable estimates of nest survival are essential for assessing strategies for avian conservation. We review the history of modifications and alternatives for estimating nest survival, with a focus on four techniques: apparent nest success, the Mayfield estimator, the Stanley method, and program MARK. The widely used Mayfield method avoids the known positive bias inherent in apparent nest success by estimating daily survival rates using the number of exposure days, eliminating the need to monitor nests from initiation. Concerns that some of Mayfield's assumptions were restrictive stimulated the development of new techniques. Stanley's method allows for calculation of stage-specific daily survival rates when transition and failure dates are unknown, and eliminates Mayfield's assumption that failure occurred midway through the nest-check interval. Program MARK obviates Mayfield's assumption of constant daily survival within nesting stages and evaluates variation in nest survival as a function of biologically relevant factors. These innovative methods facilitate the evaluation of nest survival using an information-theoretic approach. We illustrate use of these methods with Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) nest data from the Pawnee National Grassland, Colorado. Nest survival estimates calculated using Mayfield, Stanley, and MARK methods were similar, but apparent nest success estimates ranged 1-24% greater than the other estimates. MARK analysis revealed that survival of Lark Bunting nests differed between site-year groups, declined with both nest age and time in season, but did not vary with weather parameters. We encourage researchers to use these approaches to gain reliable and meaningful nest survival estimates.

  1. The effect of band loss on estimates of annual survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nelson, Louis J.; Anderson, David R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

    1980-01-01

    Banding has proven to be a useful technique in the study of population dynamics of avian species. However, band loss has long been recognized as a potential problem, (Hickey, 1952; Ludwig, 1967). Recently, Brownie et al. (1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the analysis of band recovery data. Various estimation models (assumption sets) allowed survival and/or recovery rates to be (a) constant, (b) time-specific, or (c) time- and age-specific. Optimal inference methods were employed and statistical tests of critical assumptions were developed and emphasized. The methods of Brownie et al. (1978), as with all previously published methods of which we are aware, assume no loss of bands during the study. However, some band loss is certain to occur and this potentially biases the estimates of annual survival rates whatever the analysis method. A few empirical studies have estimated band loss rates (a notable exception is Ludwig, 1967); consequently, for almost all band recovery data, the exact rate of band loss is unknown. In this paper we investigate the bias in estimates of annual survival rates due to varying degrees of hypothesized band loss. Our main results are based on perhaps the most useful model, originally developed by Seber (1970), for estimation of annual survival rate. Inferences are made concerning the bias of estimated survival rates in other models because the structure of these estimators is similar.

  2. Estimating survival rates from banding of adult and juvenile birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1974-01-01

    The restrictive assumptions required by most available methods for estimating survival probabilities render them unsuitable for analyzing real banding data. A model is proposed which allows survival rates and recovery rates to vary with the calendar year, and also allows juveniles to have rates different from adults. In addition to survival rates and recovery rates, the differential vulnerability factors of juveniles relative to adults are estimated. Minimum values of the variances of the estimators are also given. The new procedure is applied to sets of duck and goose data in which reasonably large numbers of adult and juvenile birds were banded. The results are shown to be generally comparable to those procured by other methods, but, in addition, insight into the extent of annual variation is gained. Combining data from adults and juveniles also increases the effective sample size, since the juveniles are assumed to enter the adult age class after surviving their initial year.

  3. Copy number variation in glutathione-S-transferase T1 and M1 predicts incidence and 5-year survival from prostate and bladder cancer, and incidence of corpus uteri cancer in the general population.

    PubMed

    Nørskov, M S; Frikke-Schmidt, R; Bojesen, S E; Nordestgaard, B G; Loft, S; Tybjærg-Hansen, A

    2011-08-01

    Glutathione-S-transferase T1 (GSTT1) and GSTM1 detoxify carcinogens and thus potentially contribute to inter-individual susceptibility to cancer. We determined the ability of GST copy number variation (CNV) to predict the risk of cancer in the general population. Exact copy numbers of GSTT1 and GSTM1 were measured by real-time PCR in 10 247 individuals, of whom 2090 had cancer. In men, the cumulative incidence of prostate cancer increased and the cumulative 5-year survival decreased with decreasing GSTT1 copy numbers (trends=0.02). The hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) for prostate cancer and for death after prostate cancer diagnosis were, respectively, 1.2 (0.8-1.8) and 1.2 (0.6-2.1) for GSTT1*1/0, and 1.8 (1.1-3.0) and 2.2 (1.1-4.4) for GSTT1*0/0 versus GSTT1*1/1. In women, the cumulative incidence of corpus uteri cancer increased with decreasing GSTT1 copy numbers (trend=0.04). The HRs for corpus uteri cancer were, respectively, 1.8 (1.0-3.2) and 2.2 (1.0-4.6) for GSTT1*1/0 and GSTT1*0/0 versus GSTT1*1/1. Finally, the cumulative incidence of bladder cancer increased, and the cumulative 5-year survival decreased, with decreasing GSTM1 copy numbers (P=0.03-0.05). The HRs for bladder cancer were, respectively, 1.5 (0.7-3.2) and 2.0 (0.9-4.3) for GSTM1*1/0 and GSTM1*0/0 versus GSTM1*1/1. The HR for death after bladder cancer diagnosis was 1.9 (1.0-3.7) for GSTM1*0/0 versus GSTM1*1/0. In conclusion, exact CNV in GSTT1 and GSTM1 predict incidence and 5-year survival from prostate and bladder cancer, and incidence of corpus uteri cancer.

  4. Survival estimation and the effects of dependency among animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmutz, Joel A.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, James S.; Rexstad, Eric A.

    1995-01-01

    Survival models assume that fates of individuals are independent, yet the robustness of this assumption has been poorly quantified. We examine how empirically derived estimates of the variance of survival rates are affected by dependency in survival probability among individuals. We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate known amounts of dependency among pairs of individuals and analyzed these data with Kaplan-Meier and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Dependency significantly increased these empirical variances as compared to theoretically derived estimates of variance from the same populations. Using resighting data from 168 pairs of black brant, we used a resampling procedure and program RELEASE to estimate empirical and mean theoretical variances. We estimated that the relationship between paired individuals caused the empirical variance of the survival rate to be 155% larger than the empirical variance for unpaired individuals. Monte Carlo simulations and use of this resampling strategy can provide investigators with information on how robust their data are to this common assumption of independent survival probabilities.

  5. A global synthesis of survival estimates for microbats

    PubMed Central

    Lentini, Pia E.; Bird, Tomas J.; Griffiths, Stephen R.; Godinho, Lisa N.; Wintle, Brendan A.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate survival estimates are needed to construct robust population models, which are a powerful tool for understanding and predicting the fates of species under scenarios of environmental change. Microbats make up 17% of the global mammalian fauna, yet the processes that drive differences in demographics between species are poorly understood. We collected survival estimates for 44 microbat species from the literature and constructed a model to determine the effects of reproductive, feeding and demographic traits on survival. Our trait-based model indicated that bat species which produce more young per year exhibit lower apparent annual survival, as do males and juveniles compared with females and adults, respectively. Using 8 years of monitoring data for two Australian species, we demonstrate how knowledge about the effect of traits on survival can be incorporated into Bayesian survival analyses. This approach can be applied to any group and is not restricted to bats or even mammals. The incorporation of informative priors based on traits can allow for more timely construction of population models to support management decisions and actions. PMID:26246334

  6. Testing for handling bias in survival estimation for black brant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, J.S.; Lindberg, M.S.; Rexstad, E.A.; Chelgren, N.D.; Ward, D.H.

    1997-01-01

    We used an ultrastructure approach in program SURVIV to test for, and remove, bias in survival estimates for the year following mass banding of female black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We used relative banding-drive size as the independent variable to control for handling effects in our ultrastructure models, which took the form: S = S0(1 - ??D), where ?? was handling effect and D was the ratio of banding-drive size to the largest banding drive. Brant were divided into 3 classes: goslings, initial captures, and recaptures, based on their state at the time of banding, because we anticipated the potential for heterogeneity in model parameters among classes of brant. Among models examined, for which ?? was not constrained, a model with ?? constant across classes of brant and years, constant survival rates among years for initially captured brant but year-specific survival rates for goslings and recaptures, and year- and class-specific detection probabilities had the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Handling effect, ??, was -0.47 ?? 0.13 SE, -0.14 ?? 0.057, and -0.12 ?? 0.049 for goslings, initially released adults, and recaptured adults. Gosling annual survival in the first year ranged from 0.738 ?? 0.072 for the 1986 cohort to 0.260 ?? 0.025 for the 1991 cohort. Inclusion of winter observations increased estimates of first-year survival rates by an average of 30%, suggesting that permanent emigration had an important influence on apparent survival, especially for later cohorts. We estimated annual survival for initially captured brant as 0.782 ?? 0.013, while that for recaptures varied from 0.726 ?? 0.034 to 0.900 ?? 0.062. Our analyses failed to detect a negative effect of handling on survival of brant, which is consistent with an hypothesis of substantial inherent heterogeneity in post-fledging survival rates, such that individuals most likely to die as a result of handling also have lower inherent survival probabilities.

  7. Simultaneous marginal survival estimators when doubly censored data is present.

    PubMed

    Julià, Olga; Gómez, Guadalupe

    2011-07-01

    A doubly censoring scheme occurs when the lifetimes T being measured,from a well-known time origin, are exactly observed within a window [L, R] of observational time and are otherwise censored either from above (right-censored observations)or below (left-censored observations). Sample data consists on the pairs (U, δ)where U = min{R, max{T, L}} and δ indicates whether T is exactly observed (δ = 0),right-censored (δ = 1) or left-censored (δ = −1). We are interested in the estimation of the marginal behaviour of the three random variables T, L and R based on the observed pairs (U, δ).We propose new nonparametric simultaneous marginal estimators Ŝ(T) , Ŝ(L) and Ŝ(R) for the survival functions of T, L and R, respectively, by means of an inverse-probability-of-censoring approach. The proposed estimators Ŝ(T) , Ŝ(L) and Ŝ(R) are not computationally intensive, generalize the empirical survival estimator and reduce to the Kaplan-Meier estimator in the absence of left-censored data. Furthermore,Ŝ(T) is equivalent to a self-consistent estimator, is uniformly strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. The method is illustrated with data from a cohort of drug users recruited in a detoxification program in Badalona (Spain). For these data we estimate the survival function for the elapsed time from starting IV-drugs to AIDS diagnosis, as well as the potential follow-up time. A simulation study is discussed to assess the performance of the three survival estimators for moderate sample sizes and different censoring levels.

  8. Estimation of temporal variability of survival in animal populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gould, W.R.; Nichols, J.D.

    1998-01-01

    Temporal variation of demographic characteristics for animal populations is of interest to both ecologists and biological modelers. The standard deviation of a series of estimated parameter values (e.g., estimated population size) or some function thereof (e.g, log of the estimated parameters) is commonly used as a measure of temporal variability. These measures of temporal variation overestimate the true temporal variation by not accounting for sampling variability inherent to the estimation of unknown population parameters. Using a variance-components approach to partitioning the total variability of an estimated parameter, we demonstrate the ease with which sampling variation can be removed from the observed total variation of parameter estimates. Estimates of temporal variability of survival are given after removal of sampling variation for three bird species: the federally listed Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii), Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus), and Mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos). Sampling variation accounted for the majority of the total variation in the survival estimates for nearly all of the populations studied. Substantial differences in observed significance levels were observed when testing for demographic differences in temporal variation using temporal variance estimates adjusted and unadjusted for sampling variance.

  9. Robustness of survival estimates for radio-marked animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bunck, C.M.; Chen, C.-L.

    1992-01-01

    Telemetry techniques are often used to study the survival of birds and mammals; particularly whcn mark-recapture approaches are unsuitable. Both parametric and nonparametric methods to estimate survival have becn developed or modified from other applications. An implicit assumption in these approaches is that the probability of re-locating an animal with a functioning transmitter is one. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to determine the bias and variance of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and an estimator based also on the assumption of constant hazard and to eva!uate the performance of the two-sample tests associated with each. Modifications of each estimator which allow a re-Iocation probability of less than one are described and evaluated. Generallv the unmodified estimators were biased but had lower variance. At low sample sizes all estimators performed poorly. Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of all test statistics reasonably approximated the null distribution when survival was low but not when it was high. The power of the two-sample tests were similar.

  10. Effect of delayed reporting of band recoveries on survival estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, David R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

    1980-01-01

    Brownie et al. (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., Resource Publ. 131, 1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the study of survival in avian populations. These methods are replacing the life table methods previously used to estimate survival rates (e.g., Burnham and Anderson, J. Wildl. Manage., 43: 356-366, 1979). The new methods allow survival or recovery rates, or both, to be constant, time-specific, or time- and age-specific. In studies to estimate survival rates for birds the data are often from recoveries of birds shot or found dead during the hunting season and reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory by sportsmen, conservation agency employees, or the general public. This note examines the bias in estimating annual survival due to a proportion of the recoveries being incorrectly reported a year late. Specifically, a few recoveries each year of, for example, adult male American Widgeon (Anas americana) banded in California are reported as being recovered in year i + 1 when in fact they were actually recovered the previous year i. Delayed reporting might typically be caused by people finding a band in their health clothing in the fall of the year and, being embarrassed about their failure to report the band when it was taken, report it a year late not mentioning the actual year of recovery. Heuristically, delayed reporting should bias estimated annual survival rates upwards because it appears from the data that the birds corresponding to the "delayed" recoveries actually lived an additional year.

  11. Z-estimation and stratified samples: application to survival models.

    PubMed

    Breslow, Norman E; Hu, Jie; Wellner, Jon A

    2015-10-01

    The infinite dimensional Z-estimation theorem offers a systematic approach to joint estimation of both Euclidean and non-Euclidean parameters in probability models for data. It is easily adapted for stratified sampling designs. This is important in applications to censored survival data because the inverse probability weights that modify the standard estimating equations often depend on the entire follow-up history. Since the weights are not predictable, they complicate the usual theory based on martingales. This paper considers joint estimation of regression coefficients and baseline hazard functions in the Cox proportional and Lin-Ying additive hazards models. Weighted likelihood equations are used for the former and weighted estimating equations for the latter. Regression coefficients and baseline hazards may be combined to estimate individual survival probabilities. Efficiency is improved by calibrating or estimating the weights using information available for all subjects. Although inefficient in comparison with likelihood inference for incomplete data, which is often difficult to implement, the approach provides consistent estimates of desired population parameters even under model misspecification.

  12. Conditional survival estimates improve over time for patients with advanced melanoma: results from a population-based analysis

    PubMed Central

    Xing, Yan; Chang, George J.; Hu, Chung-Yuan; Askew, Robert L.; Ross, Merrick I.; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E.; Lee, Jeffrey E.; Mansfield, Paul F.; Lucci, Anthony; Cormier, Janice N.

    2009-01-01

    Background Conditional survival (CS) has emerged as a clinically relevant measure of prognosis for cancer survivors. The objective of this analysis was to provide melanoma-specific CS estimates to help clinicians promote more informed patient decision-making. Methods Patients with melanoma and at least 5 years of follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry (1988–2000). Using the methods of Kaplan and Meier, stage-specific 5-year CS estimates were independently calculated for survivors for each year following diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate Cox regression models including baseline survivor functions were used to calculate adjusted melanoma-specific CS for different subgroups of patients further stratified by age, gender, race, marital status, anatomic tumor location, and tumor histology. Results Five-year CS estimates for stage I patients remained constant at 97% annually, while for patients with stages II, III and IV disease, 5-year CS estimates from time 0 (diagnosis) to 5 years improved from 72% to 86%, 51% to 87%, and 19% to 84%, respectively. Multivariate CS analysis revealed that differences in stages II through IV CS based on age, gender and race decreased over time. Conclusions Five-year melanoma-specific CS estimates improve dramatically over time for survivors with advanced stages of disease. These prognostic data are critical to patients for both treatment and non-treatment related life decisions. PMID:20187100

  13. A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies.

    PubMed

    Gilroy, James J; Virzi, Thomas; Boulton, Rebecca L; Lockwood, Julie L

    2012-07-01

    Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages. PMID:22919897

  14. Estimating renal survival using the ANCA-associated GN classification.

    PubMed

    Hilhorst, Marc; Wilde, Benjamin; van Breda Vriesman, Peter; van Paassen, Pieter; Cohen Tervaert, Jan Willem

    2013-09-01

    A histopathological classification system for ANCA-associated vasculitis was recently published, but whether this system predicts renal outcome requires validation. Here, we analyzed data from 164 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven renal involvement of ANCA-associated vasculitis. The ANCA-associated GN (AGN) classification categorizes patients as having focal, mixed, crescentic, or sclerotic GN. Five-year renal survival rates by categories of the AGN classification scheme were 91% for focal, 69% for mixed, and 64% for crescentic (log-rank P<0.0001). Only one patient was classified as sclerotic. Furthermore, the percentage of normal glomeruli found on biopsy estimated renal survival with the same precision as did the AGN classification scheme. Patients classified as crescentic or mixed, however, had worse survival when the percentage of normal glomeruli was <25%. In conclusion, the AGN classification for renal biopsy specimens is a practical and informative scheme with which to categorize patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis, but adding the percentage of normal glomeruli to the system seems to improve its predictive value.

  15. Use of a Cumulative Exposure Index to Estimate the Impact of Tap Water Lead Concentration on Blood Lead Levels in 1- to 5-Year-Old Children (Montréal, Canada)

    PubMed Central

    Ngueta, Gerard; Abdous, Belkacem; Tardif, Robert; St-Laurent, Julie; Levallois, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Background Drinking water is recognized as a source of lead (Pb) exposure. However, questions remain about the impact of chronic exposure to lead-contaminated water on internal dose. Objective Our goal was to estimate the relation between a cumulative water Pb exposure index (CWLEI) and blood Pb levels (BPb) in children 1–5 years of ages. Methods Between 10 September 2009 and 27 March 2010, individual characteristics and water consumption data were obtained from 298 children. Venous blood samples were collected (one per child) and a total of five 1-L samples of water per home were drawn from the kitchen tap. A second round of water collection was performed between 22 June 2011 and 6 September 2011 on a subsample of houses. Pb analyses used inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy. Multiple linear regressions were used to estimate the association between CWLEI and BPb. Results Each 1-unit increase in CWLEI multiplies the expected value of BPb by 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.15) after adjustment for confounders. Mean BPb was significantly higher in children in the upper third and fourth quartiles of CWLEI (0.7–1.9 and ≥ 1.9 μg/kg of body weight) compared with the first (< 0.2 μg/kg) after adjusting for confounders (19%; 95% CI: 0, 42% and 39%; 95% CI: 15, 67%, respectively). The trends analysis yielded a p-value < 0.0001 after adjusting for confounders suggesting a dose–response relationship between percentiles of CWLEI and BPb. Conclusions In children 1–5 years of age, BPb was significantly associated with water lead concentration with an increase starting at a cumulative lead exposure of ≥ 0.7 μg Pb/kg of body weight. In this age group, an increase of 1 μg/L in water lead would result in an increase of 35% of BPb after 150 days of exposure. Citation Ngueta G, Abdous B, Tardif R, St-Laurent J, Levallois P. 2016. Use of a cumulative exposure index to estimate the impact of tap water lead concentration on blood lead levels in 1- to 5-year-old children

  16. Estimating cancer mortality rates from SEER incidence and survival data.

    PubMed Central

    Chu, K C; Horm, J W; Smart, C R

    1990-01-01

    A method to estimate site-specific cancer mortality rates using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program incidence and survival data is proposed, calculated, and validated. This measure, the life table-derived mortality rate (LTM), is the sum of the product of the probability of being alive at the beginning of an interval times the probability of dying of the cancer of interest during the interval times the annual age-adjusted incidence rate for each year that data have been collected. When the LTM is compared to death certificate mortality rates (DCM) for organ sites with no known misclassification problems, the LTM was within 10 percent of the death certificate rates for 13 of 14 organ sites. In the sites that have problems with the death certificate rates, there were major disagreements between the LTM and DCM. The LTM was systematically lower than the DCM for sites if there was overreporting on the death certificates, and the LTM was higher than the DCM for sites if there was underreporting. The limitations and applications of the LTM are detailed. PMID:2106703

  17. Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

    2010-07-01

    We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root-n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

  18. Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

    2010-07-01

    We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root-n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided. PMID:24790286

  19. A comparison between Kaplan-Meier and weighted Kaplan-Meier methods of five-year survival estimation of patients with gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Zare, Ali; Mahmoodi, Mahmood; Mohammad, Kazem; Zeraati, Hojjat; Hosseini, Mostafa; Holakouie Naieni, Kourosh

    2014-01-01

    The 5-year survival rate is a good prognostic indicator for patients with Gastric cancer that is usually estimated based on Kaplan-Meier. In situations where censored observations are too many, this method produces biased estimations. This study aimed to compare estimations of Kaplan-Meier and Weighted Kaplan-Meier as an alternative method to deal with the problem of heavy-censoring. Data from 330 patients with Gastric cancer who had undergone surgery at Iran Cancer Institute from 1995- 1999 were analyzed. The Survival Time of these patients was determined after surgery, and the 5-year survival rate for these patients was evaluated based on Kaplan-Meier and Weighted Kaplan-Meier methods. A total of 239 (72.4%) patients passed away by the end of the study and 91(27.6%) patients were censored. The mean and median of survival time for these patients were 24.86±23.73 and 16.33 months, respectively. The one-year, two-year, three-year, four-year, and five-year survival rates of these patients with standard error estimation based on Kaplan-Meier were 0.66 (0.0264), 0.42 (0.0284), 0.31 (0.0274), 0.26 (0.0264) and 0.21 (0.0256) months, respectively. The estimations of Weighted Kaplan-Meier for these patients were 0.62 (0.0251), 0.35 (0.0237), 0.24 (0.0211), 0.17 (0.0172), and 0.10 (0.0125) months, consecutively. In cases where censoring assumption is not made, and the study has many censored observations, estimations obtained from the Kaplan-Meier are biased and are estimated higher than its real amount. But Weighted Kaplan-Meier decreases bias of survival probabilities by providing appropriate weights and presents more accurate understanding.

  20. Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bowerman, Tracy; Budy, Phaedra

    2012-01-01

    Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

  1. Additional comments on the assumption of homogenous survival rates in modern bird banding estimation models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Stokes, S.L.; Hines, J.E.; Conroy, M.J.

    1982-01-01

    We examined the problem of heterogeneous survival and recovery rates in bird banding estimation models. We suggest that positively correlated subgroup survival and recovery probabilities may result from winter banding operations and that this situation will produce positively biased survival rate estimates. The magnitude of the survival estimate bias depends on the proportion of the population in each subgroup. Power of the suggested goodness-of-fit test to reject the inappropriate model for heterogeneous data sets was low for all situations examined and was poorest for positively related subgroup survival and recovery rates. Despite the magnitude of some of the biases reported and the relative inability to detect heterogeneity, we suggest that levels of heterogeneity normally encountered in real data sets will produce relatively small biases of average survival rates.

  2. A historical estimate of apparent survival of American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) in Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nol, Erica; Murphy, Sean P.; Cadman, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    Using mark-recapture models, apparent survival was estimated from older banding and re-sighting data (1978–1983) of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) nesting on beaches and in salt marshes of coastal Virginia, USA. Oystercatchers nesting in salt marshes exhibited higher apparent survival (0.94 ±0.03) than birds nesting on beaches (0.81 ±0.06), a difference due to variation in mortality, permanent emigration, or both. Nesting on exposed barrier beaches may subject adults and young to higher risk of predation. These early estimates of adult survival for a species that is heavily monitored along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts can be used to (1) develop demographic models to determine population stability, (2) compare with estimates of adult survival from populations that have reached carrying capacity, and (3) compare with estimates of survival from other oystercatcher populations and species.

  3. A method for estimating fall adult sex ratios from production and survival data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wight, H.M.; Heath, R.G.; Geis, A.D.

    1965-01-01

    This paper presents a method of utilizing data relating to the production and survival of a bird population to estimate a basic fall adult sex ratio. This basic adult sex ratio is an average value derived from average production and survival rates. It is an estimate of the average sex ratio about which the fall adult ratios will fluctuate according to annual variations in production and survival. The basic fall adult sex ratio has been calculated as an asymptotic value which is the limit of an infinite series wherein average population characteristics are used as constants. Graphs are provided that allow the determination of basic sex ratios from production and survival data of a population. Where the respective asymptote has been determined, it may be possible to estimate various production and survival rates by use of variations of the formula for estimating the asymptote.

  4. Smolt Monitoring Program, Part I, Estimation of Survival, 1985 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Fish Passage Center

    1986-02-01

    The annual Smolt Monitoring Program is the result of implementation of Section 304(d)(2) of the Northwest Power Planning Council Fish and Wildlife Program. Survival was monitored for specific marked groups of steelhead and spring chinook. Survival through the mid-Columbia from Winthrop Hatchery and the Methow River to below Priest Rapids Dam was estimated. Estimation of survival of marked groups of steelhead from Little Goose Dam to below Ice Harbor Dam was attempted. Serious problems were evident in the Snake River survival data. A release strategy which avoids holding of control groups was tested with satisfactory results.

  5. Immersion suit insulation: the effect of dampening on survival estimates.

    PubMed

    Light, I M; Avery, A; Grieve, A M

    1987-10-01

    Immersion suit leakage values were obtained from realistic testing of helicopter passenger immersion suits using eight subjects. Simulated helicopter underwater escape resulted in mean leakages of 198 +/- 103, 283 +/- 127, 203 +/- 179, and 45.7 +/- 31.6 g (mean +/- S.D.) when wearing four different immersion suits. Suit leakages obtained from a 20-min swim test to simulate vital in-water survival actions produced leakages of 213 +/- 224, 1398 +/- 691, 145 +/- 96.5, and 177 +/- 139 g (mean +/- S.D.). Dampening of undergarments during simulated helicopter travel at an elevated cabin temperature of 30 degrees C was 115 +/- 47.3 (mean +/- S.D.; n = 4) when wearing an impermeable suit and 19 +/- 16.7 g (mean +/- S.D.; n = 4) when wearing a vapour-permeable suit. The commensurate loss of insulation with the impermeable suit at the upper level of temperature could reduce clothing insulation by 17%. A reduction of less than 5% may result under similar conditions when wearing the permeable suit. The combined dampening effect of sweating, helicopter underwater escape, and performance of vital survival actions could result in a total dampening of 247-1712 g, depending on the type of suit worn. The respective loss of insulation would be 15% and 50% respectively. This could reduce, for the 10th percentile thin man, his survival time in water at 5 degrees C from 3.5 h to between 2.4 h and 1.1 h, respectively.

  6. Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

    2004-01-01

    We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

  7. Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

    2010-01-01

    Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

  8. Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

  9. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D.; Wancata, Lauren M.; Muenz, Daniel G.; Haymart, Megan R.; Wong, Sandra L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Overall cancer incidence is decreasing while melanoma cases increase. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients as they survive past diagnosis. It is unknown the effect age and stage has on a melanoma patient’s conditional survival estimate. Methods Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) data was utilized, identifying new diagnosis cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95,041), from 1998–2005, with up to 12 year follow up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression and transformed to estimate conditional five-year survival. Results Localized melanoma patients have an excellent five-year survival at diagnosis and subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70–79 years) to younger patients (<30 years): hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01–4.84) and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93–2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87–1.53). Over time conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease nor is the age gradient. Conclusions Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanoma is initially impacted by older age with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional five-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  10. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  11. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  12. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  13. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  14. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data.

    PubMed

    Udevitz, Mark S; Gogan, Peter J P

    2012-04-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  15. Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

    2013-01-01

    Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

  16. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  17. Microbiological monitoring of endoscopes: 5-year review.

    PubMed

    Gillespie, Elizabeth E; Kotsanas, Despina; Stuart, Rhonda L

    2008-07-01

    Periodic microbiological monitoring of endoscopes is a recommendation of the Gastroenterological Society of Australia (GENSA). The aim of monitoring has been to provide quality assurance of the cleaning and disinfection of endoscopes; however, there is controversy regarding its frequency. This lack of consensus stimulated a review of the experience within our health service. At Southern Health, routine microbiological sampling has involved 4-weekly monitoring of bronchoscopes, duodenoscopes and automated flexible endoscope reprocessors (AFER), and 3-monthly monitoring of all other gastrointestinal endoscopes. Records of testing were reviewed from 1 January 2002 until 31 December 2006. A literature review was conducted, cost analysis performed and positive cultures investigated. There were 2374 screening tests performed during the 5-year period, including 287 AFER, 631 bronchoscopes for mycobacteria and 1456 endoscope bacterial screens. There were no positive results of the AFER or bronchoscopes for mycobacteria. Of the 1456 endoscopic bacterial samples, six were positive; however, retesting resulted in no growth. The overall cost of tests performed and cost in time for nursing staff to collect the samples was estimated at $AUD 100,400. Periodic monitoring of endoscopes is both time-consuming and costly. Our review demonstrates that AFER (Soluscope) perform well in cleaning endoscopes. Based on our 5-year experience, assurance of quality for endoscopic use could be achieved through process control as opposed to product control. Maintenance of endoscopes and AFER should be in accordance with the manufacturer's instructions and microbiological testing performed on commissioning, annually and following repair. Initial prompt manual leak testing and manual cleaning followed by mechanical leak testing, cleaning and disinfection should be the minimum standard in reprocessing of endoscopes. PMID:18086113

  18. Doubly-robust estimators of treatment-specific survival distributions in observational studies with stratified sampling.

    PubMed

    Bai, Xiaofei; Tsiatis, Anastasios A; O'Brien, Sean M

    2013-12-01

    Observational studies are frequently conducted to compare the effects of two treatments on survival. For such studies we must be concerned about confounding; that is, there are covariates that affect both the treatment assignment and the survival distribution. With confounding the usual treatment-specific Kaplan-Meier estimator might be a biased estimator of the underlying treatment-specific survival distribution. This article has two aims. In the first aim we use semiparametric theory to derive a doubly robust estimator of the treatment-specific survival distribution in cases where it is believed that all the potential confounders are captured. In cases where not all potential confounders have been captured one may conduct a substudy using a stratified sampling scheme to capture additional covariates that may account for confounding. The second aim is to derive a doubly-robust estimator for the treatment-specific survival distributions and its variance estimator with such a stratified sampling scheme. Simulation studies are conducted to show consistency and double robustness. These estimators are then applied to the data from the ASCERT study that motivated this research. PMID:24117096

  19. Doubly-robust Estimators of Treatment-specific Survival Distributions in Observational Studies with Stratified Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Bai, Xiaofei; Tsiatis, Anastasios A.; O'Brien, Sean M.

    2013-01-01

    Summary Observational studies are frequently conducted to compare the effects of two treatments on survival. For such studies we must be concerned about confounding; that is, there are covariates that affect both the treatment assignment and the survival distribution. With confounding the usual treatment-specific Kaplan-Meier estimator might be a biased estimator of the underlying treatment-specific survival distribution. This paper has two aims. In the first aim we use semiparametric theory to derive a doubly robust estimator of the treatment-specific survival distribution in cases where it is believed that all the potential confounders are captured. In cases where not all potential confounders have been captured one may conduct a substudy using a stratified sampling scheme to capture additional covariates that may account for confounding. The second aim is to derive a doubly-robust estimator for the treatment-specific survival distributions and its variance estimator with such a stratified sampling scheme. Simulation studies are conducted to show consistency and double robustness. These estimators are then applied to the data from the ASCERT study that motivated this research. PMID:24117096

  20. Nonparametric Discrete Survival Function Estimation with Uncertain Endpoints Using an Internal Validation Subsample

    PubMed Central

    Zee, Jarcy; Xie, Sharon X.

    2015-01-01

    Summary When a true survival endpoint cannot be assessed for some subjects, an alternative endpoint that measures the true endpoint with error may be collected, which often occurs when obtaining the true endpoint is too invasive or costly. We develop an estimated likelihood function for the situation where we have both uncertain endpoints for all participants and true endpoints for only a subset of participants. We propose a nonparametric maximum estimated likelihood estimator of the discrete survival function of time to the true endpoint. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We demonstrate through extensive simulations that the proposed estimator has little bias compared to the naïve Kaplan-Meier survival function estimator, which uses only uncertain endpoints, and more efficient with moderate missingness compared to the complete-case Kaplan-Meier survival function estimator, which uses only available true endpoints. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a dataset for estimating the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. PMID:25916510

  1. Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

    1998-01-01

    The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated

  2. A practical divergence measure for survival distributions that can be estimated from Kaplan-Meier curves.

    PubMed

    Cox, Trevor F; Czanner, Gabriela

    2016-06-30

    This paper introduces a new simple divergence measure between two survival distributions. For two groups of patients, the divergence measure between their associated survival distributions is based on the integral of the absolute difference in probabilities that a patient from one group dies at time t and a patient from the other group survives beyond time t and vice versa. In the case of non-crossing hazard functions, the divergence measure is closely linked to the Harrell concordance index, C, the Mann-Whitney test statistic and the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve. The measure can be used in a dynamic way where the divergence between two survival distributions from time zero up to time t is calculated enabling real-time monitoring of treatment differences. The divergence can be found for theoretical survival distributions or can be estimated non-parametrically from survival data using Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survivor functions. The estimator of the divergence is shown to be generally unbiased and approximately normally distributed. For the case of proportional hazards, the constituent parts of the divergence measure can be used to assess the proportional hazards assumption. The use of the divergence measure is illustrated on the survival of pancreatic cancer patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26842429

  3. Survival analysis for the missing censoring indicator model using kernel density estimation techniques.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2006-01-01

    This article concerns asymptotic theory for a new estimator of a survival function in the missing censoring indicator model of random censorship. Specifically, the large sample results for an inverse probability-of-non-missingness weighted estimator of the cumulative hazard function, so far not available, are derived, including an almost sure representation with rate for a remainder term, and uniform strong consistency with rate of convergence. The estimator is based on a kernel estimate for the conditional probability of non-missingness of the censoring indicator. Expressions for its bias and variance, in turn leading to an expression for the mean squared error as a function of the bandwidth, are also obtained. The corresponding estimator of the survival function, whose weak convergence is derived, is asymptotically efficient. A numerical study, comparing the performances of the proposed and two other currently existing efficient estimators, is presented. PMID:18953423

  4. Population trend of the Yellowstone grizzly bear as estimated from reproductive and survival rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eberhardt, L. L.; Blanchard, B. M.; Knight, R. R.

    1993-01-01

    The trend of the Yellowstone grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population was estimated using reproductive rates calculated from 22 individual females and survival rates from 400 female bear-years. The point estimate of the rate of increase was 4.6%, with 95% confidence limits of 0 and 9%. Caution in interpreting this result is advised because of possible biases in the population parameter estimates. The main prospects for improving present knowledge of the population trend appear to be further study of possible biases in the parameter estimates, and the continued use of radiotelemetry to increase the number of samples on which the estimates are based.

  5. Survival time estimation using Injury Severity Score (ISS) in homicide cases.

    PubMed

    Cros, Jérôme; Alvarez, Jean-Claude; Sbidian, Emilie; Charlier, Philippe; de la Grandmaison, Geoffroy Lorin

    2013-12-10

    The aim of our study was to assess the value of ISS to estimate survival time in a retrospective study of all homicidal deaths in the Western suburbs of Paris between 1994 and 2008. Stab wounds were the most common cause of death. Survival time between assault and death, determined in 107 cases out of 511 homicide cases, ranged from 0 min to 25 days (mean 39 h). There was an overall significant association between the survival time and the ISS score. ISS and survival time were strongly associated with male victims and a clear trend was seen with women. Regarding the type of wounds, a trend was seen with gunshot wounds and blunt injuries, but not with stab wounds. There was no influence of blood toxicological results and resuscitation attempts. Overall, ISS was a good predictor of a survival under 30 min.

  6. Semiparametric Bayesian estimation of quantile function for breast cancer survival data with cured fraction.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Cherry; Cobre, Juliana; Polpo, Adriano; Sinha, Debjayoti

    2016-09-01

    Existing cure-rate survival models are generally not convenient for modeling and estimating the survival quantiles of a patient with specified covariate values. This paper proposes a novel class of cure-rate model, the transform-both-sides cure-rate model (TBSCRM), that can be used to make inferences about both the cure-rate and the survival quantiles. We develop the Bayesian inference about the covariate effects on the cure-rate as well as on the survival quantiles via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) tools. We also show that the TBSCRM-based Bayesian method outperforms existing cure-rate models based methods in our simulation studies and in application to the breast cancer survival data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

  7. Semiparametric Bayesian estimation of quantile function for breast cancer survival data with cured fraction.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Cherry; Cobre, Juliana; Polpo, Adriano; Sinha, Debjayoti

    2016-09-01

    Existing cure-rate survival models are generally not convenient for modeling and estimating the survival quantiles of a patient with specified covariate values. This paper proposes a novel class of cure-rate model, the transform-both-sides cure-rate model (TBSCRM), that can be used to make inferences about both the cure-rate and the survival quantiles. We develop the Bayesian inference about the covariate effects on the cure-rate as well as on the survival quantiles via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) tools. We also show that the TBSCRM-based Bayesian method outperforms existing cure-rate models based methods in our simulation studies and in application to the breast cancer survival data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. PMID:27162061

  8. Estimating the personal cure rate of cancer patients using population-based grouped cancer survival data.

    PubMed

    Binbing Yu; Tiwari, Ram C; Feuer, Eric J

    2011-06-01

    Cancer patients are subject to multiple competing risks of death and may die from causes other than the cancer diagnosed. The probability of not dying from the cancer diagnosed, which is one of the patients' main concerns, is sometimes called the 'personal cure' rate. Two approaches of modelling competing-risk survival data, namely the cause-specific hazards approach and the mixture model approach, have been used to model competing-risk survival data. In this article, we first show the connection and differences between crude cause-specific survival in the presence of other causes and net survival in the absence of other causes. The mixture survival model is extended to population-based grouped survival data to estimate the personal cure rate. Using the colorectal cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Programme, we estimate the probabilities of dying from colorectal cancer, heart disease, and other causes by age at diagnosis, race and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage.

  9. Problems in estimating age-specific survival rates from recovery data of birds ringed as young

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.

    1985-01-01

    (1) The life table model is frequently employed in the analysis of ringer samples of young in bird populations. The basic model is biologically unrealistic and of little use in making inferences concerning age-specific survival probabilities. (2) This model rests on a number of restrictive assumptions, the failure of which causes serious biases. Several important assumptions are not met with real data and the estimators of age-specific survival are not robust enough to these failures. (3) Five major problems in the use of the life table method are reviewed. Examples are provided to illustrate several of the problems involved in using this method in making inferences about survival rates and its age-specific nature. (4) We conclude that this is an invalid procedure and it should not be used. Furthermore, ringing studies involving only young birds are pointless as regards survival estimation because no valid method exists for estimating age-specific or time-specific survival rates from such data. (5) In our view, inferences about age-specific survival rates are possible only if both young and adult (or young, subadult and adult) age classes are ringed each year for k years (k ≥ 2).

  10. Estimating progression-free survival in paediatric brain tumour patients when some progression statuses are unknown

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Ying; Thall, Peter F.; Wolff, Johannes E.

    2012-01-01

    Summary In oncology, progression-free survival time, which is defined as the minimum of the times to disease progression or death, often is used to characterize treatment and covariate effects. We are motivated by the desire to estimate the progression time distribution on the basis of data from 780 paediatric patients with choroid plexus tumours, which are a rare brain cancer where disease progression always precedes death. In retrospective data on 674 patients, the times to death or censoring were recorded but progression times were missing. In a prospective study of 106 patients, both times were recorded but there were only 20 non-censored progression times and 10 non-censored survival times. Consequently, estimating the progression time distribution is complicated by the problems that, for most of the patients, either the survival time is known but the progression time is not known, or the survival time is right censored and it is not known whether the patient’s disease progressed before censoring. For data with these missingness structures, we formulate a family of Bayesian parametric likelihoods and present methods for estimating the progression time distribution. The underlying idea is that estimating the association between the time to progression and subsequent survival time from patients having complete data provides a basis for utilizing covariates and partial event time data of other patients to infer their missing progression times. We illustrate the methodology by analysing the brain tumour data, and we also present a simulation study. PMID:22408277

  11. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1998-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates for a multispecies sample of neotropical birds from Panama have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses by Kart et al. (1990. Am. Nat. 136:277-91) contradicted that view, suggesting tropical birds may not have systematically high survival rates. A persistent criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses using these models indicate that, despite some variation among species, overall estimates of survival rates for understory birds in Panama are not strongly affected by adjustments for transients. We also compare estimates of survival rates based on mark-recapture models with observations of colour-marked birds. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to combinations of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding sources of this variation is the challenge for future work.

  12. Survival and population size estimation in raptor studies: A comparison of two methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gould, William R.; Fuller, Mark R.

    1995-01-01

    ABSTRACT.--The Jolly-Seber model is a capture-recapture model that can provide less-biased survival and population size estimates than those produced from simple counting procedures. Parameter estimation by simple counts and Jolly-Seber methods are based on certain assumptions that directly determine the validity of estimates. Evuluation of assumptions for parameter estimation is a focus of this paper and used as a basis for determining which methods are more likely to produce better estimates. An example of population size and survival estimation for a peregrine falcon(Falco peregrinus) population in western Greenland is used to compare the two methods.Based on results from the Greenland peregrine population, and an assessment of the underlying assumptions of simple counts and the Jolly-Seber model,we suggest that Jolly-Seber estimation of survival and population size is less biased than simple counts in studies with marked birds. We recommend the use of a Jolly-Seber analysis of data when capture-recapture techniques are employed in raptor population studies.

  13. Estimation of transfused red cell survival using an enzyme-linked antiglobulin test

    SciTech Connect

    Kickler, T.S.; Smith, B.; Bell, W.; Drew, H.; Baldwin, M.; Ness, P.M.

    1985-09-01

    An enzyme-linked antiglobulin test (ELAT) method was developed to estimate survival of transfused red cells. This procedure is based on a principle analogous to that of the Ashby technique were antigenically distinct red cells are transfused and their survival studied. The authors compared the ELAT survival to the V Chromium method (V Cr) in four patients. Three patients with hypoproliferative anemias showed T 1/2 by ELAT of 17.5, 18, and 17 days versus 18.5, 20, and 19 days by the V Cr method. A fourth patient with traumatic cardiac hemolysis had two studies performed. In this case, the ELAT showed a T 1/2 of 10 and 8.1 days while V Cr T 1/2 values were 11 and 10.5 days. The ELAT method for measuring red cell survival yielded data which agreed closely with the results of the V Cr method. Although V Cr is the accepted method for red cell survival, the ELAT method can be used to estimate transfused red cell survival.

  14. Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

    PubMed

    Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

    2016-04-01

    A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

  15. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1999-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates of neotropical birds have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses of a multispecies assemblage from Panama by Karr et al. (1990) provided a counterexample to that view. One criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses indicate that these models are indeed useful in modelling the data from Panama. Nonetheless, there is considerable interspecific variation and overall estimates of annual survival rates for understorey birds in Panama remain lower than those from other studies in the Neotropics and well below the rates long assumed for tropical birds (i.e. > 0.80). Therefore, tropical birds may not have systematically higher survival rates than temperate-zone species. Variation in survival rates among tropical species suggests that theory based on a simple tradeoff between clutch size and longevity is inadequate. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to some combination of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding these processes is the challenge for future work.

  16. Estimating Sonoran pronghorn abundance and survival with fecal DNA and capture-recapture methods.

    PubMed

    Woodruff, Susannah P; Lukacs, Paul M; Christianson, David; Waits, Lisette P

    2016-10-01

    Population abundance estimates are important for management but can be challenging to determine in low-density, wide-ranging, and endangered species, such as Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis). The Sonoran pronghorn population has been increasing; however, population estimates are currently derived from a biennial aerial count that does not provide survival or recruitment estimates. We identified individuals through noninvasively collected fecal DNA and used robust-design capture-recapture to estimate abundance and survival for Sonoran pronghorn in the United States from 2013 to 2014. In 2014 we generated separate population estimates for pronghorn gathered near 13 different artificial water holes and for pronghorn not near water holes. The population using artificial water holes had 116 (95% CI 102-131) and 121 individuals (95% CI 112-132) in 2013 and 2014, respectively. For all locations, we estimated there were 144 individuals (95% CI 132-157). Adults had higher annual survival probabilities (0.83, 95% CI 0.69-0.92) than fawns (0.41, 95% CI 0.21-0.65). Our use of targeted noninvasive genetic sampling and capture-recapture with Sonoran pronghorn fecal DNA was an effective method for monitoring a large proportion of the population. Our results provided the first survival estimates for this population in over 2 decades and precise estimates of the population using artificial water holes. Our method could be used for targeted sampling of broadly distributed species in other systems, such as in African savanna ecosystems, where many species congregate at watering sites. PMID:26918820

  17. Estimating Sonoran pronghorn abundance and survival with fecal DNA and capture-recapture methods.

    PubMed

    Woodruff, Susannah P; Lukacs, Paul M; Christianson, David; Waits, Lisette P

    2016-10-01

    Population abundance estimates are important for management but can be challenging to determine in low-density, wide-ranging, and endangered species, such as Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis). The Sonoran pronghorn population has been increasing; however, population estimates are currently derived from a biennial aerial count that does not provide survival or recruitment estimates. We identified individuals through noninvasively collected fecal DNA and used robust-design capture-recapture to estimate abundance and survival for Sonoran pronghorn in the United States from 2013 to 2014. In 2014 we generated separate population estimates for pronghorn gathered near 13 different artificial water holes and for pronghorn not near water holes. The population using artificial water holes had 116 (95% CI 102-131) and 121 individuals (95% CI 112-132) in 2013 and 2014, respectively. For all locations, we estimated there were 144 individuals (95% CI 132-157). Adults had higher annual survival probabilities (0.83, 95% CI 0.69-0.92) than fawns (0.41, 95% CI 0.21-0.65). Our use of targeted noninvasive genetic sampling and capture-recapture with Sonoran pronghorn fecal DNA was an effective method for monitoring a large proportion of the population. Our results provided the first survival estimates for this population in over 2 decades and precise estimates of the population using artificial water holes. Our method could be used for targeted sampling of broadly distributed species in other systems, such as in African savanna ecosystems, where many species congregate at watering sites.

  18. Survival estimates of wild and captive-bred released Puaiohi, an endangered Hawaiian thrush

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    VanderWerf, Eric; Crampton, Lisa H.; Diegmann, Julia; Atkinson, Carter T.; Leonard, David L.

    2014-01-01

    Estimating and monitoring adult and juvenile survival are vital to understanding population status, informing recovery planning for endangered species, and quantifying the success of management. We used mark–recapture models to estimate apparent annual survival of the Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri), an endangered thrush endemic to the Hawaiian island of Kauai, from 2005 to 2011. Our sample included 87 wild birds and 123 captive-bred birds that were released at various ages. Survival was higher for wild adult males (0.71 ± 0.09) than for wild adult females (0.46 ± 0.12). Survival of wild juveniles (0.23 ± 0.06) was lower than that of wild adults of both sexes, indicating that recruitment may limit population growth. Captive-bred birds released when <1 yr old had survival (0.26 ± 0.21) comparable with that of wild juveniles, but captive-bred birds released at 1–3 yr old had very low survival (0.05 ± 0.06). Only 8 of 123 (7%) captive birds were seen again after release. Two wild birds resighted five years after marking are the oldest known individuals, being at least six years of age. Malarial infection did not affect survival of wild Puaiohi, unlike many Hawaiian forest birds. The difference between adult male and adult female survival is consistent with rat (Rattusspp.) predation of females on the nest as a major source of mortality. As such, attempting to reduce nest predation by controlling rats may be the best available management option. Releasing captive-bred birds has had little effect on the wild population in recent years.

  19. The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

    PubMed Central

    Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

  20. The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival.

    PubMed

    Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery.

  1. Unbiased survival estimates and evidence for skipped breeding opportunities in females

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, Rick D.; Lambert, Brad A.

    2010-01-01

    5. Establishing the occurrence of temporary emigration not only reduces bias in estimates of survival probabilities but also provides information about expected breeding attempts by females, a critical element in understanding the ecology of an organism and the impacts of outside stressors and conservation actions.

  2. The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival.

    PubMed

    Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

  3. Empirical estimation of life expectancy from large clinical trials: use of left-truncated, right-censored survival analysis methodology.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Charlotte L; Sun, Jie L; Tsiatis, Anastasios A; Mark, Daniel B

    2008-11-20

    In the current era of ever-increasing health care costs, economic analyses are an essential component in the comprehensive evaluation of new medical interventions. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA)--the most common form of economic analysis used in medicine--aids policy-makers in determining how to allocate finite health care dollars among possible alternative therapies. CEA relates the incremental benefits of a new technology to its incremental costs in a cost-effectiveness (CE) ratio. Although the generally agreed-upon standard of presentation for the CE ratio is the lifetime perspective (incremental lifetime cost to add one life year), this perspective presents an obvious challenge to the statistical analyst. Most large clinical trials collect limited follow-up data, and yet their findings form the basis of therapeutic recommendations that often extend far beyond the limits of the empirical data. Although clinical practice guidelines do not yet require explicit modeling to examine the long-term implications of their recommendations, health policy analyses routinely rely upon such extrapolations. This paper describes methods for using empirical patient-level data to extrapolate survival in large clinical trials and cohorts beyond a limited follow-up period in which most patients remain alive in order to estimate the entire survival distribution for a cohort of patients. We accomplish this task through a novel combination of models that estimate the hazard rate not only as a function of time but also as a function of patient age. Extrapolation of survival beyond a limited time frame is made possible by capitalizing on the extensive latitude of survival information available across the range of ages represented in the data. Variations in approach are presented, and issues arising in these analyses are discussed. The proposed methodology is developed, applied, and evaluated in both a large clinical trial cohort with 5-year follow-up on over 23,000 patients and a

  4. Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] <2 %) and confidence interval coverage close to nominal, except for survival estimates of banded birds for the 'off study area' stratum, which were negatively biased (RBIAS -7 to -15%) when sample sizes were small (5-10 banded or radioed animals 'released' per time interval). To provide

  5. Movement patterns and study area boundaries: Influences on survival estimation in capture-mark-recapture studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Horton, G.E.; Letcher, B.H.

    2008-01-01

    The inability to account for the availability of individuals in the study area during capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies and the resultant confounding of parameter estimates can make correct interpretation of CMR model parameter estimates difficult. Although important advances based on the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model have resulted in estimators of true survival that work by unconfounding either death or recapture probability from availability for capture in the study area, these methods rely on the researcher's ability to select a method that is correctly matched to emigration patterns in the population. If incorrect assumptions regarding site fidelity (non-movement) are made, it may be difficult or impossible as well as costly to change the study design once the incorrect assumption is discovered. Subtleties in characteristics of movement (e.g. life history-dependent emigration, nomads vs territory holders) can lead to mixtures in the probability of being available for capture among members of the same population. The result of these mixtures may be only a partial unconfounding of emigration from other CMR model parameters. Biologically-based differences in individual movement can combine with constraints on study design to further complicate the problem. Because of the intricacies of movement and its interaction with other parameters in CMR models, quantification of and solutions to these problems are needed. Based on our work with stream-dwelling populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, we used a simulation approach to evaluate existing CMR models under various mixtures of movement probabilities. The Barker joint data model provided unbiased estimates of true survival under all conditions tested. The CJS and robust design models provided similarly unbiased estimates of true survival but only when emigration information could be incorporated directly into individual encounter histories. For the robust design model, Markovian emigration (future

  6. Estimating species-specific survival and movement when species identification is uncertain.

    PubMed

    Runge, Jonathan P; Hines, James E; Nichols, James D

    2007-02-01

    Incorporating uncertainty in the investigation of ecological studies has been the topic of an increasing body of research. In particular, mark-recapture methodology has shown that incorporating uncertainty in the probability of detecting individuals in populations enables accurate estimation of population-level processes such as survival, reproduction, and dispersal. Recent advances in mark-recapture methodology have included estimating population-level processes for biologically important groups despite the misassignment of individuals to those groups. Examples include estimating rates of apparent survival despite less than perfect accuracy when identifying individuals to gender or breeding state. Here we introduce a method for estimating apparent survival and dispersal in species that co-occur but that are difficult to distinguish. We use data from co-occurring populations of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and montane voles (M. montanus) in addition to simulated data to show that ignoring species uncertainty can lead to biased estimates of population processes. The incorporation of species uncertainty in mark-recapture studies should aid future research investigating ecological concepts such as interspecific competition, niche differentiation, and spatial population dynamics in sibling species. PMID:17479746

  7. Cure fraction estimation from the mixture cure models for grouped survival data.

    PubMed

    Yu, Binbing; Tiwari, Ram C; Cronin, Kathleen A; Feuer, Eric J

    2004-06-15

    Mixture cure models are usually used to model failure time data with long-term survivors. These models have been applied to grouped survival data. The models provide simultaneous estimates of the proportion of the patients cured from disease and the distribution of the survival times for uncured patients (latency distribution). However, a crucial issue with mixture cure models is the identifiability of the cure fraction and parameters of kernel distribution. Cure fraction estimates can be quite sensitive to the choice of latency distributions and length of follow-up time. In this paper, sensitivity of parameter estimates under semi-parametric model and several most commonly used parametric models, namely lognormal, loglogistic, Weibull and generalized Gamma distributions, is explored. The cure fraction estimates from the model with generalized Gamma distribution is found to be quite robust. A simulation study was carried out to examine the effect of follow-up time and latency distribution specification on cure fraction estimation. The cure models with generalized Gamma latency distribution are applied to the population-based survival data for several cancer sites from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program. Several cautions on the general use of cure model are advised.

  8. Testing assumptions for unbiased estimation of survival of radiomarked harlequin ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esler, Daniel; Mulcahy, D.M.; Jarvis, R.L.

    2000-01-01

    Unbiased estimates of survival based on individuals outfitted with radiotransmitters require meeting the assumptions that radios do not affect survival, and animals for which the radio signal is lost have the same survival probability as those for which fate is known. In most survival studies, researchers have made these assumptions without testing their validity. We tested these assumptions by comparing interannual recapture rates (and, by inference, survival) between radioed and unradioed adult female harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus), and for radioed females, between right-censored birds (i.e., those for which the radio signal was lost during the telemetry monitoring period) and birds with known fates. We found that recapture rates of birds equipped with implanted radiotransmitters (21.6 ?? 3.0%; x?? ?? SE) were similar to unradioed birds (21.7 ?? 8.6%), suggesting that radios did not affect survival. Recapture rates also were similar between right-censored (20.6 ?? 5.1%) and known-fate individuals (22.1 ?? 3.8%), suggesting that missing birds were not subject to differential mortality. We also determined that capture and handling resulted in short-term loss of body mass for both radioed and unradioed females and that this effect was more pronounced for radioed birds (the difference between groups was 15.4 ?? 7.1 g). However, no difference existed in body mass after recapture 1 year later. Our study suggests that implanted radios are an unbiased method for estimating survival of harlequin ducks and likely other species under similar circumstances.

  9. Estimating Long-Term Survival Temperatures at the Assemblage Level in the Marine Environment: Towards Macrophysiology

    PubMed Central

    Richard, Joëlle; Morley, Simon Anthony; Thorne, Michael A. S.; Peck, Lloyd Samuel

    2012-01-01

    Defining ecologically relevant upper temperature limits of species is important in the context of environmental change. The approach used in the present paper estimates the relationship between rates of temperature change and upper temperature limits for survival in order to evaluate the maximum long-term survival temperature (Ts). This new approach integrates both the exposure time and the exposure temperature in the evaluation of temperature limits. Using data previously published for different temperate and Antarctic marine environments, we calculated Ts in each environment, which allowed us to calculate a new index: the Warming Allowance (WA). This index is defined as the maximum environmental temperature increase which an ectotherm in a given environment can tolerate, possibly with a decrease in performance but without endangering survival over seasonal or lifetime time-scales. It is calculated as the difference between maximum long-term survival temperature (Ts) and mean maximum habitat temperature. It provides a measure of how close a species, assemblage or fauna are living to their temperature limits for long-term survival and hence their vulnerability to environmental warming. In contrast to data for terrestrial environments showing that warming tolerance increases with latitude, results here for marine environments show a less clear pattern as the smallest WA value was for the Peru upwelling system. The method applied here, relating upper temperature limits to rate of experimental warming, has potential for wide application in the identification of faunas with little capacity to survive environmental warming. PMID:22509340

  10. Inferring population trends for the world's largest fish from mark-recapture estimates of survival.

    PubMed

    Bradshaw, Corey J A; Mollet, Henry F; Meekan, Mark G

    2007-05-01

    1. Precise estimates of demographic rates are key components of population models used to predict the effects of stochastic environmental processes, harvest scenarios and extinction probability. 2. We used a 12-year photographic identification library of whale sharks from Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia to construct Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model estimates of survival within a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) framework. Estimated survival rates, population structure and assumptions regarding age at maturity, longevity and reproduction frequency were combined in a series of age-classified Leslie matrices to infer the potential trajectory of the population. 3. Using data from 111 individuals, there was evidence for time variation in apparent survival (phi) and recapture probability (p). The null model gave a phi of 0.825 (95% CI: 0.727-0.893) and p = 0.184 (95% CI: 0.121-0.271). The model-averaged annual phi ranged from 0.737 to 0.890. There was little evidence for a sex effect on survival. 4. Using standardized total length as a covariate in the CMR models indicated a size bias in phi. Ignoring the effects of time, a 5-m shark has a phi = 0.59 and a 9 m shark has phi = 0.81. 5. Of the 16 model combinations considered, 10 (63%) indicated a decreasing population (lambda < 1). For models based on age at first reproduction (alpha) of 13 years, the mean age of reproducing females at the stable age distribution (A) ranged from 15 to 23 years, which increased to 29-37 years when alpha was assumed to be 25. 6. All model scenarios had higher total elasticities for non-reproductive female survival [E(s(nr))] compared to those for reproductive female survival [E(s(r))]. 7. Assuming relatively slow, but biologically realistic, vital rates (alpha = 25 and biennial reproduction) and size-biased survival probabilities, our results suggest that the Ningaloo Reef population of whale sharks is declining, although more reproductive data are clearly needed to confirm this conclusion

  11. Designing a Monitoring Program to Estimate Estuarine Survival of Anadromous Salmon Smolts: Simulating the Effect of Sample Design on Inference.

    PubMed

    Romer, Jeremy D; Gitelman, Alix I; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  12. Designing a Monitoring Program to Estimate Estuarine Survival of Anadromous Salmon Smolts: Simulating the Effect of Sample Design on Inference

    PubMed Central

    Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  13. Designing a monitoring program to estimate estuarine survival of anadromous salmon smolts: simulating the effect of sample design on inference

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  14. Novel estimates of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult survival based on Wolbachia releases.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Scott A; Montgomery, Brian L; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2013-05-01

    The size of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito populations and adult survival rates have proven difficult to estimate because of a lack of consistent quantitative measures to equate sampling methods, such as adult trapping, to actual population size. However, such estimates are critical for devising control methods and for modeling the transmission of dengue and other infectious agents carried by this species. Here we take advantage of recent releases of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti coupled with the results of ongoing monitoring to estimate the size of adult Ae. aegypti populations around Cairns in far north Queensland, Australia. Based on the association between released adults infected with Wolbachia and data from Biogents Sentinel traps, we show that data from two locations are consistent with population estimates of approximately 5-10 females per house and daily survival rates of 0.7-0.9 for the released Wolbachia-infected females. Moreover, we estimate that networks of Biogents Sentinel traps at a density of one per 15 houses capture around 5-10% of the adult population per week, and provide a rapid estimate of the absolute population size of Ae. aegypti. These data are discussed with respect to release rates and monitoring in future Wolbachia releases and also the levels of suppression required to reduce dengue transmission. PMID:23802459

  15. Band reporting rates of waterfowl: does individual heterogeneity bias estimated survival rates?

    PubMed Central

    White, Gary C; Cordes, Line S; Arnold, Todd W

    2013-01-01

    In capture–recapture studies, the estimation accuracy of demographic parameters is essential to the efficacy of management of hunted animal populations. Dead recovery models based upon the reporting of rings or bands are often used for estimating survival of waterfowl and other harvested species. However, distance from the ringing site or condition of the bird may introduce substantial individual heterogeneity in the conditional band reporting rates (r), which could cause bias in estimated survival rates (S) or suggest nonexistent individual heterogeneity in S. To explore these hypotheses, we ran two sets of simulations (n = 1000) in MARK using Seber's dead recovery model, allowing time variation on both S and r. This included a series of heterogeneity models, allowing substantial variation on logit(r), and control models with no heterogeneity. We conducted simulations using two different values of S: S = 0.60, which would be typical of dabbling ducks such as mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and S = 0.80, which would be more typical of sea ducks or geese. We chose a mean reporting rate on the logit scale of −1.9459 with SD = 1.5 for the heterogeneity models (producing a back-transformed mean of 0.196 with SD = 0.196, median = 0.125) and a constant reporting rate for the control models of 0.196. Within these sets of simulations, estimation models where σS = 0 and σS > 0 (σS is SD of individual survival rates on the logit scale) were incorporated to investigate whether real heterogeneity in r would induce apparent individual heterogeneity in S. Models where σS = 0 were selected approximately 91% of the time over models where σS > 0. Simulation results showed < 0.05% relative bias in estimating survival rates except for models estimating σS > 0 when true S = 0.8, where relative bias was a modest 0.5%. These results indicate that considerable variation in reporting rates does not cause major bias in estimated survival rates of waterfowl, further highlighting

  16. Are international differences in breast cancer survival between Australia and the UK present amongst both screen-detected women and non-screen-detected women? survival estimates for women diagnosed in West Midlands and New South Wales 1997-2006.

    PubMed

    Woods, Laura M; Rachet, Bernard; O'Connell, Dianne L; Lawrence, Gill; Coleman, Michel P

    2016-05-15

    We examined survival in screened-detected and non-screen-detected women diagnosed in the West Midlands (UK) and New South Wales (Australia) in order to evaluate whether international differences in survival are related to early diagnosis, or to other factors relating to the healthcare women receive. Data for women aged 50 - 65 years who had been eligible for screening from 50 years were examined. Data for 5,628 women in West Midlands and 6,396 women in New South Wales were linked to screening service records (mean age at diagnosis 53.7 years). We estimated net survival and modelled the excess hazard ratio of breast cancer death by screening status. Survival was lower for women in the West Midlands than in New South Wales (5-year net survival 90.9% [95% CI 89.9%-91.7%] compared with 93.4% [95% CI 92.6%-94.1%], respectively). The difference was greater between the two populations of non-screen-detected women (4.9%) compared to between screen-detected women, (1.8% after adjustment for lead-time and over-diagnosis). The adjusted excess hazard ratio of breast cancer death for West Midlands compared with New South Wales was greater in the non-screen-detected group (EHR 2.00, 95% CI 1.70 - 2.31) but not significantly different to that for women whose cancer had been screen-detected (EHR 1.72, 95% CI 0.87 - 2.56). In this study more than one in three breast cancer deaths in the West Midlands would have been avoided if survival had been the same as in New South Wales. The possibility that women in the UK receive poorer treatment is an important potential explanation which should be examined with care.

  17. Biochemical Control With Radiotherapy Improves Overall Survival in Intermediate and High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients Who Have an Estimated 10-Year Overall Survival of >90%

    SciTech Connect

    Herbert, Christopher; Liu, Mitchell; Tyldesley, Scott; Morris, W. James; Joffres, Michel; Khaira, Mandip; Kwan, Winkle; Moiseenko, Vitali; Pickles, Thomas

    2012-05-01

    Purpose: To identify subgroups of patients with carcinoma of the prostate treated with radical radiotherapy that have improved overall survival when disease is biochemically controlled. Methods and Materials: A cohort of 1,060 prostate cancer patients treated with radical radiotherapy was divided into nine subgroups based on National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk category and estimated 10-year overall survival (eOS 10y) derived from the age adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index. Patients with and without biochemical control were compared with respect to overall survival. Actuarial estimates of overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for analysis of overall survival. Results: Median follow-up was 125 months (range, 51-176 months). Only the subgroups with high or intermediate risk disease and an eOS 10y of >90% had a statistically significantly improved overall survival when prostate cancer was biochemically controlled. In all other groups, biochemical control made no significant difference to overall survival. In the subgroup with high-risk disease and eOS 10y >90%, actuarial overall survival was 86.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78.5%-94.1%) and 62.1% (95% CI 52.9%-71.3%) for patients with biochemical control and biochemical relapse respectively (p = 0.002). In the intermediate risk group with eOS >90%, actuarial overall survival was 95.3% (95% CI 89.0%-100%) and 79.8% (95% CI 68.0%-91.6%) for biochemically controlled and biochemically relapsed patients (p = 0.033). On multivariate analysis, National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group (p = 0.005), biochemical control (p = 0.033) and eOS 10y (p < 0.001) were statistically significant. Conclusion: Biochemical control translates into improved overall survival in patients with high or intermediate risk disease and an estimated 10-year overall survival of >90%.

  18. Robustness of survival estimates from radio-telemetry studies with uncertain relocation of individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bunck, C.M.; Chen, C.-L.; Pollock, K.H.

    1995-01-01

    Traditional methods of estimating survival from radio-telemetry studies use either the Trent-Rongstad approach (Trent and Rongstad 1974, Heisey and Fuller 1985) or the Kaplan-Meier approach (Kaplan and Meier 1958; Pollock et al. 1989a,b). Both methods appear to require the assumption that relocation probability for animals with a functioning radio is 1. In practice this may not always be reasonable and, in fact, is unnecessary. The number of animals at risk (i.e., risk set) can be modified to account for uncertain relocation of individuals. This involves including only relocated animals in the risk set instead of also including animals not relocated but that were seen later. Simulation results show that estimators and tests for comparing survival curves should be based on this modification.

  19. Microdosimetric measurements and estimation of human cell survival for heavy-ion beams.

    PubMed

    Kase, Yuki; Kanai, Tatsuaki; Matsumoto, Yoshitaka; Furusawa, Yoshiya; Okamoto, Hiroyuki; Asaba, Toru; Sakama, Makoto; Shinoda, Hiroshi

    2006-10-01

    The microdosimetric spectra for high-energy beams of photons and proton, helium, carbon, neon, silicon and iron ions (LET = 0.5-880 keV/microm) were measured with a spherical-walled tissue-equivalent proportional counter at various depths in a plastic phantom. Survival curves for human tumor cells were also obtained under the same conditions. Then the survival curves were compared with those estimated by a microdosimetric model based on the spectra and the biological parameters for each cell line. The estimated alpha terms of the liner-quadratic model with a fixed beta value reproduced the experimental results for cell irradiation for ion beams with LETs of less than 450 keV/microm, except in the region near the distal peak. PMID:17007551

  20. Estimating and modeling the cure fraction in population-based cancer survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Paul C; Thompson, John R; Weston, Claire L; Dickman, Paul W

    2007-07-01

    In population-based cancer studies, cure is said to occur when the mortality (hazard) rate in the diseased group of individuals returns to the same level as that expected in the general population. The cure fraction (the proportion of patients cured of disease) is of interest to patients and is a useful measure to monitor trends in survival of curable disease. There are 2 main types of cure fraction model, the mixture cure fraction model and the non-mixture cure fraction model, with most previous work concentrating on the mixture cure fraction model. In this paper, we extend the parametric non-mixture cure fraction model to incorporate background mortality, thus providing estimates of the cure fraction in population-based cancer studies. We compare the estimates of relative survival and the cure fraction between the 2 types of model and also investigate the importance of modeling the ancillary parameters in the selected parametric distribution for both types of model.

  1. Sex ratio estimation and survival analysis for Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata, Libellulidae)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, M.; Juillerat, L.

    2004-01-01

    There is controversy over whether uneven sex ratios observed in mature dragonfly populations are a mere artifact resulting from the higher observability of males. Previous studies have at best made indirect inference about sex ratios by analysis of survival or recapture rates. Here, we obtain direct estimates of sex ratio from capture?recapture data based on the Cormack?Jolly?Seber model. We studied Orthetrum coerulescens (Fabricius, 1798) at three sites in the Swiss Jura Mountains over an entire activity period. Recapture rates per 5-day interval were 3.5 times greater for males (0.67, SE 0.02) than for females (0.19, SE 0.02). At two sites, recapture rate increased over the season for males and was constant for females, and at one site it decreased with precipitation for both sexes. In addition, recapture rate was higher with higher temperature for males only. We found no evidence for higher male survival rates in any population. Survival per 5-day interval for both sexes was estimated to be 0.77 (95% CI 0.75?0.79) without significant site or time-specific variation. There were clear effects of temperature (positive) and precipitation (negative) on survival rate at two sites. Direct estimates of sex ratios were not significantly different from 1 for any time interval. Hence, the observed male-biased sex ratio in adult O. coerulescens was an artifact resulting from the better observability of males. The method presented in this paper is applicable to sex ratio estimation in any kind of animal.

  2. A qualitative analysis of the elements used by palliative care clinicians when formulating a survival estimate

    PubMed Central

    Clarkson, Rose; Selby, Debbie; Myers, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    Objective For patients with advanced and/or incurable disease, clinicians are often called upon to formulate and communicate an estimate of likely survival duration. The objective of this study was to gain a deeper appreciation of this process by identifying and exploring the specific elements that may inform and/or impact a clinician's estimate of survival (CES). Methods Semistructured interviews were conducted among a group of palliative care clinicians in the setting of a tertiary academic health sciences centre. Qualitative data were subsequently analysed using a grounded theory approach. Results Five major themes were identified as being central to the process of CES formulation: use of objective patient-specific elements, strength of the patient-clinician relationship, purpose and context of an individual CES, perceived role of hope and the overall likelihood of CES inaccuracy. Conclusions For any given patient, several elements have the potential to inform and/or impact the process of CES formulation. Study participants were aware of objective clinical factors known to correlate with actual survival duration and likely integrate this information when formulating a CES. Formulation occurs within a larger context comprised of a number of elements that may influence individual estimates. These elements exist against a background of awareness of the overall likelihood of CES inaccuracy. Clinicians are encouraged to develop a personalised and standardised approach to CES formulation whereby an awareness of the menu of potentially impacting elements is consciously integrated into an individual process. PMID:24644752

  3. Estimation of survival and gonotrophic cycle length of Culicoides variipennis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in California.

    PubMed

    Work, T M; Mullens, B A; Jessup, D A

    1991-06-01

    The use of a time series analysis to estimate the survival rate and gonotrophic cycle length of Culicoides variipennis at 2 California sites is described. Collections were made daily for 28 days in Yolo County (northern California) and for 25 days in Riverside County (southern California) in July and August of 1989, respectively, using CO2-baited suction traps. The time series analysis of these collections yielded a gonotrophic cycle length estimate of 3 days. Stage-specific and daily survivorship estimates 0.242 and 0.623, respectively, were determined for the northern California site. The time series method was found unsuitable for estimating the gonotrophic cycle length or daily survivorship at the southern California site. PMID:1895081

  4. Survival of Patients with Chronic Myelocytic Leukemia: Comparisons of Estimates from Clinical Trial Settings and Population-Based Cancer Registries

    PubMed Central

    Gondos, Adam; Redaniel, Maria Theresa; Brenner, Hermann

    2011-01-01

    Introduction. The survival of patients with chronic myelocytic leukemia (CML) has improved during the past decades. However, there have been discrepancies between results reported from clinical trials and population-based studies. We aimed to elucidate the extent of these discrepancies. Methods. We examined the 5-year survival rate of patients in clinical trials of CML treatment and compared these results with the survival of patients in the general population using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, correcting for differences in the age structure of the patient populations. Results. Twenty-nine trials were identified for data extraction. The survival rate calculated from SEER data was lower than the survival rate in clinical trials in the corresponding period, with differences of 2.1%–50.7%. Age-adapted survival was similar for four trials, but differences up to 35.8% were seen in most. Limitations of the study include the lack of information on chemotherapy in the SEER database and possible heterogeneity of cases. Discussion. The survival rate in clinical trials of CML treatment is higher than the survival rate of all patients with CML. We speculate that the difference may be a result of access to better medications, selection of healthier patients for trials, and the time necessary for adoption of new treatments. This finding underscores the need for population-based studies to give a more realistic idea of survival for patients with a given malignancy in the general population. PMID:21471276

  5. Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holbrook, Christopher M.; Perry, Russell W.; Brandes, Patricia L.; Adams, Noah S.

    2013-01-01

    In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

  6. Estimating survival and breeding probability for pond-breeding amphibians: a modified robust design

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Wilbur, H.M.

    2004-01-01

    Many studies of pond-breeding amphibians involve sampling individuals during migration to and from breeding habitats. Interpreting population processes and dynamics from these studies is difficult because (1) only a proportion of the population is observable each season, while an unknown proportion remains unobservable (e.g., non-breeding adults) and (2) not all observable animals are captured. Imperfect capture probability can be easily accommodated in capture?recapture models, but temporary transitions between observable and unobservable states, often referred to as temporary emigration, is known to cause problems in both open- and closed-population models. We develop a multistate mark?recapture (MSMR) model, using an open-robust design that permits one entry and one exit from the study area per season. Our method extends previous temporary emigration models (MSMR with an unobservable state) in two ways. First, we relax the assumption of demographic closure (no mortality) between consecutive (secondary) samples, allowing estimation of within-pond survival. Also, we add the flexibility to express survival probability of unobservable individuals (e.g., ?non-breeders?) as a function of the survival probability of observable animals while in the same, terrestrial habitat. This allows for potentially different annual survival probabilities for observable and unobservable animals. We apply our model to a relictual population of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). Despite small sample sizes, demographic parameters were estimated with reasonable precision. We tested several a priori biological hypotheses and found evidence for seasonal differences in pond survival. Our methods could be applied to a variety of pond-breeding species and other taxa where individuals are captured entering or exiting a common area (e.g., spawning or roosting area, hibernacula).

  7. Apparent Survival Rates of Forest Birds in Eastern Ecuador Revisited: Improvement in Precision but No Change in Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Blake, John G.; Loiselle, Bette A.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae) from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate) was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE) across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02) when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs = −0.72) and recaptures (rs = −0.93, P<0.001 in both cases). Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient. PMID:24312519

  8. On differences in radiosensitivity estimation: TCP experiments versus survival curves. A theoretical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrev, Pavel; Stavreva, Nadejda; Ruggieri, Ruggero; Nahum, Alan

    2015-08-01

    We have compared two methods of estimating the cellular radiosensitivity of a heterogeneous tumour, namely, via cell-survival and via tumour control probability (TCP) pseudo-experiments. It is assumed that there exists intra-tumour variability in radiosensitivity and that the tumour consists predominantly of radiosensitive cells and a small number of radio-resistant cells. Using a multi-component, linear-quadratic (LQ) model of cell kill, a pseudo-experimental cell-survival versus dose curve is derived. This curve is then fitted with a mono-component LQ model describing the response of a homogeneous cell population. For the assumed variation in radiosensitivity it is shown that the composite pseudo-experimental survival curve is well approximated by the survival curve of cells with uniform radiosensitivity. For the same initial cell radiosensitivity distribution several pseudo-experimental TCP curves are simulated corresponding to different fractionation regimes. The TCP model used accounts for clonogen proliferation during a fractionated treatment. The set of simulated TCP curves is then fitted with a mono-component TCP model. As in the cell survival experiment the fit with a mono-component model assuming uniform radiosensitivity is shown to be highly acceptable. However, the best-fit values of cellular radiosensitivity produced via the two methods are very different. The cell-survival pseudo-experiment yields a high radiosensitivity value, while the TCP pseudo-experiment shows that the dose-response is dominated by the most resistant sub-population in the tumour, even when this is just a small fraction of the total.

  9. Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

    1995-01-01

    We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

  10. Estimating annual survival and movement rates of adults within a metapopulation of roseate terns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hays, H.; Cormons, G.D.; Burger, J.; Safina, C.; Hines, J.E.; Gochfeld, M.

    1995-01-01

    Several multistratum capture-recapture models were used to test various hypotheses about possible geographic and temporal variation in survival, movement, and recapture/resighting probabilities of 2399 adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) color-banded from 1988 to 1992 at the sites of the four largest breeding colonies of this species in the northeastern USA. Linear-logistic ultrastructural models also were developed to investigate possible correlates of geographic variation in movement probabilities. Based on goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values, the fully parameterized model (Model A) with time- and location-specific survival, movement, and capture probabilities, was selected as the most appropriate model for this metapopulation structure. With almost all movement accounted for, on average gt 90% of the surviving adults from each colony site returned to the same site the following year. Variations in movement probabilities were more closely associated with the identity of the destination colony site than with either the identity of the colony site of origin or the distance between colony sites. The average annual survival estimates (0.740.84) of terns from all four sites indicate a high rate of annual mortality relative to that of other species of marine birds.

  11. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634–3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365–16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  12. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival.

    PubMed

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; Dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634-3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365-16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  13. Modeling and estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.

    2000-01-01

    In studies of avian nesting success, it is often of interest to estimate stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests. When data can be partitioned by nesting stage (e.g., incubation stage, nestling stage), piecewise application of the Mayfield method or Johnsona??s method is appropriate. However, when the data contain nests where the transition from one stage to the next occurred during the interval between visits, piecewise approaches are inappropriate. In this paper, I present a model that allows joint estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities even when the time of transition between stages is unknown. The model allows interval lengths between visits to nests to vary, and the exact time of failure of nests does not need to be known. The performance of the model at various sample sizes and interval lengths between visits was investigated using Monte Carlo simulations, and it was found that the model performed quite well: bias was small and confidence-interval coverage was at the nominal 95% rate. A SAS program for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and their standard errors, is provided in the Appendix.

  14. The Power of Renal Function Estimation Equations for Predicting Long-Term Kidney Graft Survival

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Hoon Young; Joo, Dong Jin; Song, Mi Kyung; Kim, Myoung Soo; Park, Hyeong Cheon; Kim, Yu Seun; Kim, Beom Seok

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Evaluation of renal function using an accurate estimation equation is important for predicting long-term graft survival. We designed this retrospective cohort study to evaluate the predictive power of renal function estimation by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equations for graft survival. We reviewed data of 3290 adult kidney transplant recipients who underwent transplantation at a single center between April 1979 and September 2012. The reliability and agreement of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as calculated by the CKD-EPI and MDRD equations were evaluated using Bland–Altman plots and Cohen weighted kappa analyses. The predictive power of CKD stages as classified by each equation for graft survival was investigated using Cox regression models. Additionally, Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were used to reveal the relationship between graft survival and eGFR equations. Of 3290 kidney transplant recipients, 3040 were included in the analysis. The mean follow-up duration was 128.08 ± 83.54 months, and 29.8% of participants were reclassified to higher eGFR categories by the CKD-EPI equation compared to the category classification by the MDRD equation. eGFR calculated using the MDRD equation was underestimated compared to that calculated using the CKD-EPI equation, based on the Bland–Altman plot. In Cohen weighted kappa analysis, agreement across CKD stages classified using the 2 equations was reliable, but all CKD stages classified using the MDRD equation appeared to be in lower eGFR categories than those classified using the CKD-EPI equation. Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses indicated that the CKD stage as classified by the CKD-EPI equation, but not the MDRD equation, was significantly correlated with the risk of graft failure. In multivariable Cox regression analysis for

  15. Estimating leukemia-free survival after allografting for chronic myeloid leukemia: a new method that takes into account patients who relapse and are restored to complete remission.

    PubMed

    Craddock, C; Szydlo, R M; Klein, J P; Dazzi, F; Olavarria, E; van Rhee, F; Pocock, C; Cwynarski, K; Apperley, J F; Goldman, J M

    2000-07-01

    A significant number of patients who relapse after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) will achieve sustained remissions after treatment with interferon-alpha, second transplants, or donor lymphocyte infusions (DLI) from the original stem cell donor. Because leukemia-free survival (LFS) is at present defined as survival without evidence of relapse at any time posttransplant, patients who relapse but are then restored to complete remission are treated as failures when estimating LFS. We have established a new category of LFS, termed current LFS (CLFS), which we define as survival without evidence of leukemia at the time of most recent assessment. To gauge the contribution of treatment for relapse to the efficacy of allogeneic SCT in the management of CML in chronic phase, we compared conventional LFS and CLFS in 189 consecutive patients who underwent SCT over a 7-year period with a minimum follow-up of 3 years. Patients with sibling donors (n = 111) received cyclosporine and methotrexate as prophylaxis for graft versus host disease; patients with unrelated donors (n = 78) also received Campath-1G or 1H as intravenous T-cell depletion. The 5-year LFS defined conventionally was 36% (CI: 29% to 43%) versus a 5-year CLFS of 49% (CI: 36% to 62%). This new method of defining LFS confirms the view that appropriate "salvage" therapy, principally DLI, makes a major contribution to the capacity of allogeneic SCT to produce long-term LFS in patients who receive SCT for CML and emphasizes the importance of redefining LFS to take account of successful treatment of relapse. PMID:10891435

  16. An objective index to estimate the survival rate of primary blast lung injury.

    PubMed

    Lee, Kihyuck; Yoon, Jungmin; Min, Kyeongran; Lee, Jungchang; Kang, Shinil; Hong, Sung Jun; Yoon, Sung Hoon; Lee, Jong-Shill; Nam, Kyoung Won; Cho, Seok Hyun; Park, Hoonki; Young, Kim In

    2014-01-01

    To supply proper treatments to the primary blast lung injury (PBLI) patients, it is important to estimate the severity of the primary blast lung injury in accordance with the blast conditions. In this study, a blast-induced mechanical parameter (first principal stress) of lung was calculated using a finite element thorax model and the correlation between the survival rate of the subjects with blast-induced lung damage and an objective index that was related to the first principal stress of the lung model. This study propose the objective index for the estimation of the degree of PBLI. The results have a potential clinical application to improve the efficacy of treatment for blast injury patients.

  17. Multistate Models for Estimation of Survival and Reproduction in the Grey-headed Albatross (Thalassarche chrysostoma)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Kendall, William L.; Doherty, Paul F.; Ryan, Peter G.

    2009-01-01

    Reliable information on demography is necessary for conservation of albatrosses, the most threatened family of pelagic birds. Albatross survival has been estimated using mark?recapture data and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. However, albatross exhibit skipped breeding, violating assumptions of the CJS model. Multistate modeling integrating unobservable states is a promising tool for such situations. We applied multistate models to data on Grey-headed Albatross (Thalassarche chrysostoma) to evaluate model performance and describe demographic patterns. These included a multistate equivalent of the CJS model (MS-2), including successful and failed breeding states and ignoring temporary emigration, and three versions of a four-state multistate model that accounts for temporary emigration by integrating unobservable states: a model (MS-4) with one sample per breeding season, a robust design model (RDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and geographic closure within the season, and an open robust design model (ORDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and staggered entry and exit of animals within the season. Survival estimates from the MS-2 model were higher than those from the MS-4 model, which resulted in apparent percent relative bias averaging 2.2%. The ORDMS-4 model was more appropriate than the RDMS-4 model, given that staggered entry and exit occurred. Annual survival probability for Greyheaded Albatross at Marion Island was 0.951 ? 0.006 (SE), and the probability of skipped breeding in a subsequent year averaged 0.938 for successful and 0.163 for failed breeders. We recommend that multistate models with unobservable states, combined with robust-design sampling, be used in studies of species that exhibit temporary emigration.

  18. Stereotactic body radiation therapy for prostate cancer patients with old age or medical comorbidity: a 5-year follow-up of an investigational study.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sea-Won; Jang, Hong Seok; Lee, Jong Hoon; Kim, Sung Hwan; Yoon, Sei Chul

    2014-12-01

    We evaluated 5-year follow-up of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) with Cyberknife for prostate cancer patients. Forty-five men with prostate adenocarcinoma who received SBRT using Cyberknife from May 2006 to November 2012 were enrolled in this study. They were prostate cancer patients with old age and medical comorbidities who received a total of 36 Gy to the prostate in 5 fractions with either everyday or every other day schedule. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels at initial diagnosis and after radiation were traced. Primary endpoints were biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). The definition of biochemical relapse was a PSA level of nadir+2 ng/mL. Progression was defined as biochemically or clinically detected disease and the start of salvage therapy. After median follow-up of 63 months, the 5-year bRFS for all patients was estimated at 89.7%. The 5-year PFS was estimated at 71%. Four cases of biochemical relapse were observed, including two patients who experienced locoregional failure and one patient who had distant metastasis with biochemical relapse. The 5-year OS was estimated at 94.3%. There were five deaths, all of which were unrelated to prostate cancer. There was no grade 3 or higher acute complication. Grade 3 or higher late urinary toxicity was reported in 2 (4.4%) of 45 patients. The 5-year survival and toxicity outcome of SBRT using Cyberknife on prostate cancer patients with old age or comorbidities were favorable and safe in an investigational study.

  19. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1993 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Iwamoto, Robert N.; Sandford, Benjamin P.; McIntyre, Kenneth W.

    1994-04-01

    A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at different areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers.

  20. Asymptotic properties of mean survival estimate based on the Kaplan-Meier curve with an extrapolated tail.

    PubMed

    Gong, Qi; Fang, Liang

    2012-01-01

    Asymptotic distribution of the mean survival time based on the Kaplan-Meier curve with an extrapolated 'tail' is derived. A closed formula of the variance estimate is provided. Asymptotic properties of the estimator were studied in a simulation study, which showed that this estimator was unbiased with proper coverage probability and followed a normal distribution. An example is used to demonstrate the application of this estimator.

  1. Annual survival estimation of migratory songbirds confounded by incomplete breeding site-fidelity: Study designs that may help

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marshall, M.R.; Diefenbach, D.R.; Wood, L.A.; Cooper, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    Many species of bird exhibit varying degrees of site-fidelity to the previous year's territory or breeding area, a phenomenon we refer to as incomplete breeding site-fidelity. If the territory they occupy is located beyond the bounds of the study area or search area (i.e., they have emigrated from the study area), the bird will go undetected and is therefore indistinguishable from dead individuals in capture-mark-recapture studies. Differential emigration rates confound inferences regarding differences in survival between sexes and among species if apparent survival rates are used as estimates of true survival. Moreover, the bias introduced by using apparent survival rates for true survival rates can have profound effects on the predictions of population persistence through time, source/sink dynamics, and other aspects of life-history theory. We investigated four study design and analysis approaches that result in apparent survival estimates that are closer to true survival estimates. Our motivation for this research stemmed from a multi-year capture-recapture study of Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea) on multiple study plots within a larger landscape of suitable breeding habitat where substantial inter-annual movements of marked individuals among neighboring study plots was documented. We wished to quantify the effects of this type of movement on annual survival estimation. The first two study designs we investigated involved marking birds in a core area and resighting them in the core as well as an area surrounding the core. For the first of these two designs, we demonstrated that as the resighting area surrounding the core gets progressively larger, and more "emigrants" are resighted, apparent survival estimates begin to approximate true survival rates (bias < 0.01). However, given observed inter-annual movements of birds, it is likely to be logistically impractical to resight birds on sufficiently large surrounding areas to minimize bias. Therefore

  2. Estimation of Listeria monocytogenes survival during thermoultrasonic treatments in non-isothermal conditions: Effect of ultrasound on temperature and survival profiles.

    PubMed

    Franco-Vega, Avelina; Ramírez-Corona, Nelly; López-Malo, Aurelio; Palou, Enrique

    2015-12-01

    Estimation of Listeria monocytogenes survival during thermoultrasonic treatments in non-isothermal conditions was determined considering an increment from 45 to 70 °C, assessing the adequacy of predictions through experimental data obtained in laboratory media model systems. In order to characterize the sonication effect on the survival pattern, observed behavior was compared to that obtained when only thermal treatment was applied. A noticeable impact on L. monocytogenes survival in non-isothermal conditions was observed when heat is combined with ultrasound, since the sonication effect modifies not only the temperature profile, but also the dynamic survival pattern. It was observed that both treatments were able to achieve a reduction of 5.5 log cycles of the initial population, although the inactivation temperature and the required time to reach such temperature were lower for thermoultrasonic treatments than for thermal treatments. Furthermore, as the temperature dependent parameters required to estimate the dynamic responses in non-isothermal treatments were initially determined from isothermal conditions, the sonication effect on these parameters and its implications for dynamic estimations, which are closely related to the nonlinearity of the systems, were also addressed; for thermal treatments, obtained isothermal curves were properly described by the Weibull model and first order kinetics, while for thermoultrasonication treatments a clear non-linear behavior was observed and only the Weibullian model was able to adequately describe the inactivation pattern.

  3. A 5-year retrospective study of cobalt-chromium-based single crowns inserted in a private practice.

    PubMed

    Ortorp, Anders; Ascher, Aron; Svanborg, Per

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the clinical performance of cobalt-chromium (Co-Cr) single crowns. Ninety restorations were placed in 55 patients, and follow-up examinations were performed annually for 5 years. Six patients (8 crowns) were regarded as dropouts. During the follow-up period, 15 (17%) crowns/abutment teeth experienced some type of complication; 8 (9%) of these were regarded as failures. The cumulative survival rate was estimated at 90.3% over 5 years, though only 3 (3%) crowns had complications that could be related to the crown material. The results suggest that Co-Cr single crowns are a promising alternative to other alloys used in fixed prosthodontics. PMID:22930770

  4. Control of household air pollution for child survival: estimates for intervention impacts

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Exposure to household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels affects 2.8 billion people in developing countries, including children and pregnant women. The aim of this review is to propose intervention estimates for child survival outcomes linked to HAP. Methods Systematic reviews with meta-analysis were conducted for ages 0-59 months, for child pneumonia, adverse pregnancy outcomes, stunting and all-cause mortality. Evidence for each outcome was assessed against Bradford-Hill viewpoints, and GRADE used for certainty about intervention effect size for which all odds ratios (OR) are presented as protective effects. Results Reviews found evidence linking HAP exposure with child ALRI, low birth weight (LBW), stillbirth, preterm birth, stunting and all-cause mortality. Most studies were observational and rated low/very low in GRADE despite strong causal evidence for some outcomes; only one randomised trial was eligible.Intervention effect (OR) estimates of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.75) for ALRI, 0.71 (0.65, 0.79) for LBW and 0.66 (0.54, 0.81) for stillbirth are proposed, specific outcomes for which causal evidence was sufficient. Exposure-response evidence suggests this is a conservative estimate for ALRI risk reduction expected with sustained, low exposure. Statistically significant protective ORs were also found for stunting [OR=0.79 (0.70, 0.89)], and in one study of pre-term birth [OR=0.70 (0.54, 0.90)], indicating these outcomes would also likely be reduced. Five studies of all-cause mortality had an OR of 0.79 (0.70, 0.89), but heterogenity precludes a reliable estimate for mortality impact. Although interventions including clean fuels and improved solid fuel stoves are available and can deliver low exposure levels, significant challenges remain in achieving sustained use at scale among low-income households. Conclusions Reducing exposure to HAP could substantially reduce the risk of several child survival outcomes, including fatal pneumonia

  5. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2008.

    SciTech Connect

    Faulkner, James R.; Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.

    2009-06-23

    In 2008, the National Marine Fisheries Service completed the sixteenth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. We PIT tagged and released a total of 18,565 hatchery steelhead O. mykiss, 15,991 wild steelhead, and 9,714 wild yearling Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha at Lower Granite Dam in the Snake River. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from the hydropower system and at sites within the hydropower system in both the Snake and Columbia Rivers. These included 122,061 yearling Chinook salmon tagged at Lower Granite Dam for evaluation of latent mortality related to passage through Snake River dams. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, Ice Harbor, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the single-release model). Primary research objectives in 2008 were to: (1) estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead, (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions, and (3) evaluate the survival estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2008 for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Additional details on the methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here. Survival

  6. Monitoring of polyomavirus BK replication and impact of preemptive immunosuppression reduction in renal-transplant recipients in China: a 5-year single-center analysis.

    PubMed

    Huang, Gang; Wang, Chang-xi; Zhang, Lei; Fei, Ji-guang; Deng, Su-xiong; Qiu, Jiang; Li, Jun; Chen, Guo-dong; Fu, Qian; Chen, Li-zhong

    2015-01-01

    This provides the long-term patient/graft survival and outcome of BK viremia and BK virus allograft nephropathy (BKVAN) in renal transplant recipients in the setting of intensive monitoring and preemptive of reduction of immunosuppression. Quantitative BKV DNA PCR and urinary cytology surveillance were performed regularly after transplantation in 229 kidney recipients. Patients with BK viremia and BKVAN were treated with 30-50% reduction in doses of tacrolimus and/or mycophenolate mofetil and were monitored for BKV every 3-6 months. All the patients were followed for 5 years. Overall 5-year patient and graft survival were 95.6% and 92.1%, respectively, and independent of presence of decoy cells, BK viruria, viremia, or BKVAN. After reduction of immunosuppression, BK viremia (n = 38) resolved in 100% of patients, without increased acute rejection. Recurrent BK viremia was not observed in viremic patients without BKVAN (n = 30). All BKVAN patients (n = 7, 3.1%) cleared viremia with a mean time of 5.9 months (range 1-15 months) and manifested no decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate from 1 month to 5 years after transplantation. Viral monitoring and preemptive reduction of immunosuppression resulted in the successful resolution of BK viremia and BKVAN with excellent graft survival and renal function at 5 years.

  7. Estimation of Ten-Year Survival of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis Based on the Competing Risks Model in Iran

    PubMed Central

    Kazempour-Dizaji, Mehdi; Tabarsi, Payam; Zayeri, Farid

    2016-01-01

    Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic bacterial disease, which despite the presence of effective drug strategies, still remains a serious health problem worldwide. Estimation of survival rate is an appropriate indicator for prognosis in patients with pulmonary TB. Therefore, this research was designed with the aim of accurate estimation of the survival of patients by taking both the death event and relapse into consideration. Materials and Methods: Based on a retrospective cohort study, information of 2,299 patients with pulmonary TB that had been referred to and treated in Masih Daneshvari Hospital from 2005 to 2015 was reviewed. To estimate the survival of patients with pulmonary TB, the competing risks model, which considered death and relapse as competing events, was used. In addition, the effect of factors affecting the cumulative incidence function (CIF) of death event and relapse was also examined. Results: The effect of risk factors on the CIF of death events and relapse showed that patients’ age, marital status, contact with TB patients, adverse effect of drugs, imprisonment and HIV positivity were factors that affected the CIF of death. Meanwhile, sex, marital status, imprisonment and HIV positivity were factors affecting the CIF of relapse (P <0.05). Considering death and relapse as competing events, survival estimation in pulmonary TB patients showed that survival in this group of patients in the first, third, fifth and tenth year after treatment was 39%, 14%, 7% and 0%, respectively. Conclusion: The use of competing risks model in survival analysis of patients with pulmonary TB with consideration of competing events, enables more accurate estimation of survival. PMID:27403177

  8. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1996 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.

    1998-02-01

    In 1996, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the fourth year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected near the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and at Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Individual smolts were subsequently detected at PIT-tag detection facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release (SR) and Paired-Release (PR) Models. Timing of releases of tagged hatchery steelhead (O. mykiss) from the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and yearling chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) from Lower Granite Dam in 1996 spanned the major portion of their juvenile migrations. Specific research objectives in 1996 were to (1) estimate reach and project survival in the Snake River using the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations, (2) evaluate the performance of the survival-estimation models under prevailing operational and environmental conditions in the Snake River, and (3) synthesize results from the 4 years of the study to investigate relationships between survival probabilities, travel times, and environmental factors such as flow levels and water temperature.

  9. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 1998 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.

    2000-03-01

    This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for PIT-tagged hatchery and wild juvenile steelhead and yearling chinook salmon in the Snake and Columbia Rivers during 1998. Estimates of post-detection bypass survival for yearling chinook salmon at McNary Dam are also reported. Results are reported primarily in the form of data tables and figures with minimal description of methods and analysis. Detailed information on the methodology and statistical models used for this report is provided in five previous annual reports on this study, which are cited here.

  10. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1994 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Muir, William D.

    1995-02-01

    In 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the second year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through the dams and reservoirs of the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected at selected locations above, at, and below Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release, Modified Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models.

  11. Olfactory dysfunction predicts 5-year mortality in older adults.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Jayant M; Wroblewski, Kristen E; Kern, David W; Schumm, L Philip; McClintock, Martha K

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of mortality has focused on disease and frailty, although antecedent biomarkers may herald broad physiological decline. Olfaction, an ancestral chemical system, is a strong candidate biomarker because it is linked to diverse physiological processes. We sought to determine if olfactory dysfunction is a harbinger of 5-year mortality in the National Social Life, Health and Aging Project [NSHAP], a nationally representative sample of older U.S. adults. 3,005 community-dwelling adults aged 57-85 were studied in 2005-6 (Wave 1) and their mortality determined in 2010-11 (Wave 2). Olfactory dysfunction, determined objectively at Wave 1, was used to estimate the odds of 5-year, all cause mortality via logistic regression, controlling for demographics and health factors. Mortality for anosmic older adults was four times that of normosmic individuals while hyposmic individuals had intermediate mortality (p<0.001), a "dose-dependent" effect present across the age range. In a comprehensive model that included potential confounding factors, anosmic older adults had over three times the odds of death compared to normosmic individuals (OR, 3.37 [95%CI 2.04, 5.57]), higher than and independent of known leading causes of death, and did not result from the following mechanisms: nutrition, cognitive function, mental health, smoking and alcohol abuse or frailty. Olfactory function is thus one of the strongest predictors of 5-year mortality and may serve as a bellwether for slowed cellular regeneration or as a marker of cumulative toxic environmental exposures. This finding provides clues for pinpointing an underlying mechanism related to a fundamental component of the aging process.

  12. Estimating the effect of hunting on annual survival rates of adult mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.; Anderson, David R.

    1984-01-01

    Management programs for waterfowl populations include rationale for, and establishment of, hunting regulations. These programs rest partially on the results of scientific studies on the effect of harvest rates on annual survival rates. The evidence of this relationship has changed markedly since the mid-1970's, and it is not widely believed that a largely compensatory relationship exists between hunting mortality and other forms of mortality for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). This paper employs a general probabilistic model formulated to include a parameter (b) representing a continuum between complete compensation (b=0) and total additivity (b=1). Maximum likelihood estimates of this parameter were computer for 47 data sets of adult mallards banded throughout North American before hunting commenced. We found additional evidence of a highly compensatory mortality process for adult male mallards, while the evidence for adults female mallards remains inconclusive. Effective harvest, land acquisition, and land management programs depend upon additional information on the chronology and mechanisms underlying a compensatory mortality process.

  13. Estimation of the age at onset in spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 Cuban patients by survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Almaguer-Mederos, L E; Falcón, N S; Almira, Y R; Zaldivar, Y G; Almarales, D C; Góngora, E M; Herrera, M P; Batallán, K E; Armiñán, R R; Manresa, M V; Cruz, G S; Laffita-Mesa, J; Cyuz, T M; Chang, V; Auburger, G; Gispert, S; Pérez, L V

    2010-08-01

    Previous studies have investigated the close association that exists between CAG repeat number and the age at onset in SCA2 = spinocerebellar ataxia type 2. These studies have focused on affected individuals. To further characterize this association and estimate the risk of a carrier developing SCA2 at a particular age as a function of a specific CAG repeat size, we have analyzed a large group of 924 individuals, including 394 presymptomatic and 530 affected individuals with a CAG repeat length of 32-79 units. Using a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we obtained cumulative probability curves for disease manifestation at a particular age for each CAG repeat length in the 34-45 range. These curves were significantly different (p < 0.001) and showed small overlap. All these information may be very valuable in predictive-testing programs, in the planning of studies for the identification of other genetic and environmental factors as modifiers of age at onset, and in the design of clinical trials for people at enlarged risk for SCA2. PMID:20095980

  14. Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

  15. Revisiting the Effect of Capture Heterogeneity on Survival Estimates in Capture-Mark-Recapture Studies: Does It Matter?

    PubMed Central

    Abadi, Fitsum; Botha, Andre; Altwegg, Res

    2013-01-01

    Recently developed capture-mark-recapture methods allow us to account for capture heterogeneity among individuals in the form of discrete mixtures and continuous individual random effects. In this article, we used simulations and two case studies to evaluate the effectiveness of continuously distributed individual random effects at removing potential bias due to capture heterogeneity, and to evaluate in what situation the added complexity of these models is justified. Simulations and case studies showed that ignoring individual capture heterogeneity generally led to a small negative bias in survival estimates and that individual random effects effectively removed this bias. As expected, accounting for capture heterogeneity also led to slightly less precise survival estimates. Our case studies also showed that accounting for capture heterogeneity increased in importance towards the end of study. Though ignoring capture heterogeneity led to a small bias in survival estimates, such bias may greatly impact management decisions. We advocate reducing potential heterogeneity at the sampling design stage. Where this is insufficient, we recommend modelling individual capture heterogeneity in situations such as when a large proportion of the individuals has a low detection probability (e.g. in the presence of floaters) and situations where the most recent survival estimates are of great interest (e.g. in applied conservation). PMID:23646131

  16. [The readmission of schizophrenics: a retrospective study over 5 years].

    PubMed

    Antonioli, D; Rey-Bellet, J; Müller, C

    1988-05-01

    Since the introduction of neuroleptics, the number of beds in psychiatric hospitals has decreased progressively, but, in the same time, the number of readmissions has increased. For schizophrenic outpatients, we can estimate that 68% will be readmitted during the 5 years following their departure from the hospital. In our retrospective survey, we have studied the different factors which influence the readmissions. We have shown, with a statistical significancy, that an agricultural background, a fulltime job and brief hospitalizations prevent the readmissions. However patients aged less than 30 years, with long hospitalizations and living alone have a high risk of readmission. The most frequent causes are patient's omission to take prescribed drugs, environmental conflicts and alteration in the familial situation. PMID:3059911

  17. Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Objective To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. Design A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and north America on 20 379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. Methods Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. Results During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/μl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8–65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1–99% for AIDS or death and 1.3–96% for death alone. Conclusion On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org. PMID:17502729

  18. The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study

    PubMed Central

    Schuster, Tibor

    2014-01-01

    Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods. PMID:24463885

  19. Estimation of survival rates from band recoveries of mule deer in Colorado

    SciTech Connect

    White, G.C.; Bartmann, R.M.

    1983-01-01

    An attempt has been made to determine the survival rate of mule deer in the White River drainage basin in northwestern Colorado. During five winters, 1972-76, 1923 mule deer were trapped and marked. Survival rates were determined at yearly intervals. A FORTRAN program was used to perform the analysis.

  20. Henslow's sparrow winter-survival estimates and response to prescribed burning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thatcher, B.S.; Krementz, D.G.; Woodrey, M.S.

    2006-01-01

    Wintering Henslow's sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii) populations rely on lands managed with prescribed burning, but the effects of various burn regimes on their overwinter survival are unknown. We studied wintering Henslow's sparrows in coastal pine savannas at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Jackson County, Mississippi, USA, during January and February 2001 and 2002. We used the known-fate modeling procedure in program MARK to evaluate the effects of burn age (1 or 2 growing seasons elapsed), burn season (growing, dormant), and calendar year on the survival rates of 83 radiomarked Henslow's sparrows. We found strong evidence that Henslow's sparrow survival rates differed by burn age (with higher survival in recently burned sites) and by year (with lower survival rates in 2001 likely because of drought conditions). We found some evidence that survival rates also differed by bum season (with higher survival in growing-season sites), although the effects of burn season were only apparent in recently burned sites. Avian predation was the suspected major cause of mortality (causing 6 of 14 deaths) with 1 confirmed loggerhead shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) depredation. Our results indicated that recently burned savannas provide high-quality wintering habitats and suggested that managers can improve conditions for wintering Henslow's sparrows by burning a large percentage of savannas each year.

  1. Evaluation of ultrastructure and random effects band recovery models for estimating relationships between survival and harvest rates in exploited populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Otis, D.L.; White, Gary C.

    2004-01-01

    Increased population survival rate after an episode of seasonal exploitation is considered a type of compensatory population response. Lack of an increase is interpreted as evidence that exploitation results in added annual mortality in the population. Despite its importance to management of exploited species, there are limited statistical techniques for comparing relative support for these two alternative models. For exploited bird species, the most common technique is to use a fixed effect, deterministic ultrastructure model incorporated into band recovery models to estimate the relationship between harvest and survival rate. We present a new likelihood-based technique within a framework that assumes that survival and harvest are random effects that covary through time. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study under this framework to evaluate the performance of these two techniques. The ultrastructure models performed poorly in all simulated scenarios, due mainly to pathological distributional properties. The random effects estimators and their associated estimators of precision had relatively small negative bias under most scenarios, and profile likelihood intervals achieved nominal coverage. We suggest that the random effects estimation method approach has many advantages compared to the ultrastructure models, and that evaluation of robustness and generalization to more complex population structures are topics for additional research. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

  2. Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates.

    PubMed

    Dudgeon, Christine L; Pollock, Kenneth H; Braccini, J Matias; Semmens, Jayson M; Barnett, Adam

    2015-07-01

    Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

  3. Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( λ ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

  4. Effects of Photo and Genotype-Based Misidentification Error on Estimates of Survival, Detection and State Transition using Multistate Survival Models

    PubMed Central

    Winiarski, Kristopher J.; McGarigal, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    We simulated multistate capture histories (CHs) by varying state survival (ϕ), detection (p) and transition (ψ), number of total capture occasions and releases per capture occasion and then modified these scenarios to mimic false rejection error (FRE), a common misidentification error, resulting from the failure to match samples of the same individual. We then fit a multistate model and estimated accuracy, bias and precision of state-specific ϕ, p and ψ to better understand the effects of FRE on different simulation scenarios. As expected, ϕ, and p, decreased in accuracy with FRE, with lower accuracy when CHs were simulated under a shorter-term study and a lower number of releases per capture occasion (lower sample size). Accuracy of ψ estimates were robust to FRE except in those CH scenarios simulated using low sample size. The effect of FRE on bias was not consistent among parameters and differed by CH scenario. As expected, ϕ was negatively biased with increased FRE (except for the low ϕ low p CH scenario simulated with a low sample size), but we found that the magnitude of bias differed by scenario (high p CH scenarios were more negatively biased). State transition was relatively unbiased, except for the low p CH scenarios simulated with a low sample size, which were positively biased with FRE, and high p CH scenarios simulated with a low sample size. The effect of FRE on precision was not consistent among parameters and differed by scenario and sample size. Precision of ϕ decreased with FRE and was lowest with the low ϕ low p CH scenarios. Precision of p estimates also decreased with FRE under all scenarios, except the low ϕ high p CH scenarios. However, precision of ψ increased with FRE, except for those CH scenarios simulated with a low sample size. Our results demonstrate how FRE leads to loss of accuracy in parameter estimates in a multistate model with the exception of ψ when estimated using an adequate sample size. PMID:26751208

  5. Estimating movement and survival rates of a small saltwater fish using autonomous antenna receiver arrays and passive integrated transponder tags

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rudershausen, Paul J.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Dubreuil, Todd; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Poland, Steven J.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of small (12.5 mm long) passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and custom detection antennas for obtaining fine-scale movement and demographic data of mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus in a salt marsh creek. Apparent survival and detection probability were estimated using a Cormack Jolly Seber (CJS) model fitted to detection data collected by an array of 3 vertical antennas from November 2010 to March 2011 and by a single horizontal antenna from April to August 2011. Movement of mummichogs was monitored during the period when the array of vertical antennas was used. Antenna performance was examined in situ using tags placed in wooden dowels (drones) and in live mummichogs. Of the 44 tagged fish, 42 were resighted over the 9 mo monitoring period. The in situ detection probabilities of the drone and live mummichogs were high (~80-100%) when the ambient water depth was less than ~0.8 m. Upstream and downstream movement of mummichogs was related to hourly water depth and direction of tidal current in a way that maximized time periods over which mummichogs utilized the intertidal vegetated marsh. Apparent survival was lower during periods of colder water temperatures in December 2010 and early January 2011 (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.979) than during other periods of the study (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.992). During late fall and winter, temperature had a positive effect on the CJS detection probability of a tagged mummichog, likely due to greater fish activity over warmer periods. During the spring and summer, this pattern reversed possibly due to mummichogs having reduced activity during the hottest periods. This study demonstrates the utility of PIT tags and continuously operating autonomous detection systems for tracking fish at fine temporal scales, and improving estimates of demographic parameters in salt marsh creeks that are difficult or impractical to sample with active fishing gear.

  6. Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

    2015-01-01

    Implications: We present the first inter-seasonal analysis of survival probability of the Pacific coast race of band-tailed pigeons and illustrate important temporal patterns that may influence future species management including harvest strategies and disease monitoring.

  7. Estimating true instead of apparent survival using spatial Cormack-Jolly-Seber models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schaub, Michael; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Spatial CJS models enable study of dispersal and survival independent of study design constraints such as imperfect detection and size of the study area provided that some of the dispersing individuals remain in the study area. We discuss possible extensions of our model: alternative dispersal models and the inclusion of covariates and of a habitat suitability map.

  8. Longevity records and survival estimate of birds in a Guatemala rain forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Dowell, B.; Hines, J.

    2002-01-01

    Birds were mist-netted for ten consecutive 'winter' seasons at two sites on Cerro San Gil and for three to nine seasons at eight other sites on the mountain. Sixteen nets were used at each site for three days; net locations were the same each year. From 1,255 subsequent-year recaptures we computed annual survival using the program MARK. A low annual survival of 0.26+0.03 for Long-tailed Hermit probably reflects extensive wandering in search of food. The only other residents with low survival rates were Ochre-bellied Flycatcher (0.32) and Olive-backed Euphonia (0.38). Other residents tested ranged from 0.49 for Red-capped Manakin to 0.67 for Stub-tailed Spadebill and are within ranges reported from other tropical sites. Rates for migrants were lower, ranging from 0.33 (Worm-eating Warbler) to 0.45 (Kentucky Warbler). Limiting the analysis to known territorial adults (birds that had already returned from a previous year), raised survival rates for residents an average of 0.05, whereas rates for wintering migratory species remained unchanged. The oldest birds recaptured were all residents: Scalythroated Leaftosser (9 years 9 months), Tawny-winged and Wedge-billed Woodcreepers, Northern Bentbill, Tawny-crowned Greenlet, and White-breasted Woodwren (8 years 9 months each). Ages over three years nine months were recorded for 46 species; for the majority of these, new maximum age records were established. A positive relationship was found between survival rate and maximum age and between sample size and maximum age

  9. Salvage HDR Brachytherapy for Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Previous Definitive Radiation Therapy: 5-Year Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Chien Peter; Weinberg, Vivian; Shinohara, Katsuto; Roach, Mack; Nash, Marc; Gottschalk, Alexander; Chang, Albert J.; Hsu, I-Chow

    2013-06-01

    Purpose: Evaluate efficacy and toxicity of salvage high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDRB) for locally recurrent prostate cancer after definitive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 52 consecutively accrued patients undergoing salvage HDRB between 1998 and 2009 for locally recurrent prostate cancer after previous definitive RT. After pathologic confirmation of locally recurrent disease, patients received 36 Gy in 6 fractions. Twenty-four patients received neoadjuvant hormonal therapy before salvage, and no patients received adjuvant hormonal therapy. Determination of biochemical failure after salvage HDRB was based on the Phoenix definition. Overall survival (OS) and bF distributions were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of biochemical control. Acute and late genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) toxicities, based on Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 4), were documented. Results: Median follow-up after salvage HDRB was 59.6 months. The 5-year OS estimate was 92% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 80%-97%) with median survival not yet reached. Five-year biochemical control after salvage was 51% (95% CI: 34%-66%). Median PSA nadir postsalvage was 0.1 (range: 0-7.2) reached at a median of 10.2 months after completing HDRB. As for complications, acute and late grade 3 GU toxicities were observed in only 2% and 2%, respectively. No grade 2 or higher acute GI events and 4% grade 2 GI late events were observed. On univariate analysis, disease-free interval after initial definitive RT (P=.07), percent of positive cores at the time of diagnosis (P=.08), interval from first recurrence to salvage HDRB (P=.09), and pre-HDRB prostate-specific antigen (P=.07) were each of borderline significance in predicting biochemical control after salvage HDRB. Conclusions: Prostate HDRB is an effective salvage modality with relatively few long-term toxicities. We

  10. Survival analysis: A consumer-friendly method to estimate the optimum sucrose level in probiotic petit suisse.

    PubMed

    Esmerino, E A; Paixão, J A; Cruz, A G; Garitta, L; Hough, G; Bolini, H M A

    2015-11-01

    For years, just-about-right (JAR) scales have been among the most used techniques to obtain sensory information about consumer perception, but recently, some researchers have harshly criticized the technique. The present study aimed to apply survival analysis to estimate the optimum sucrose concentration in probiotic petit suisse cheese and compare the survival analysis to JAR scales to verify which technique more accurately predicted the optimum sucrose concentration according to consumer acceptability. Two panels of consumers (total=170) performed affective tests to determine the optimal concentration of sucrose in probiotic petit suisse using 2 different methods of analysis: JAR scales (n=85) and survival analysis (n=85). Then an acceptance test was conducted using naïve consumers (n=100) between 18 and 60 yr old, with 2 samples of petit suisse, one with the ideal sucrose determined by JAR scales and the other with the ideal sucrose content determined by survival analysis, to determine which formulation was in accordance with consumer acceptability. The results indicate that the 2 sensory methods were equally effective in predicting the optimum sucrose level in probiotic petit suisse cheese, and no significant differences were detected in any of the characteristics related to liking evaluated. However, survival analysis has important advantages over the JAR scales. Survival analysis has shown the potential to be an advantageous tool for dairy companies because it was able to accurately predict the optimum sucrose content in a consumer-friendly way and was also practical for researchers because experimental sensory work is simpler and has been shown to be more cost effective than JAR scales without losses of consumer acceptability. PMID:26387013

  11. Survival analysis: A consumer-friendly method to estimate the optimum sucrose level in probiotic petit suisse.

    PubMed

    Esmerino, E A; Paixão, J A; Cruz, A G; Garitta, L; Hough, G; Bolini, H M A

    2015-11-01

    For years, just-about-right (JAR) scales have been among the most used techniques to obtain sensory information about consumer perception, but recently, some researchers have harshly criticized the technique. The present study aimed to apply survival analysis to estimate the optimum sucrose concentration in probiotic petit suisse cheese and compare the survival analysis to JAR scales to verify which technique more accurately predicted the optimum sucrose concentration according to consumer acceptability. Two panels of consumers (total=170) performed affective tests to determine the optimal concentration of sucrose in probiotic petit suisse using 2 different methods of analysis: JAR scales (n=85) and survival analysis (n=85). Then an acceptance test was conducted using naïve consumers (n=100) between 18 and 60 yr old, with 2 samples of petit suisse, one with the ideal sucrose determined by JAR scales and the other with the ideal sucrose content determined by survival analysis, to determine which formulation was in accordance with consumer acceptability. The results indicate that the 2 sensory methods were equally effective in predicting the optimum sucrose level in probiotic petit suisse cheese, and no significant differences were detected in any of the characteristics related to liking evaluated. However, survival analysis has important advantages over the JAR scales. Survival analysis has shown the potential to be an advantageous tool for dairy companies because it was able to accurately predict the optimum sucrose content in a consumer-friendly way and was also practical for researchers because experimental sensory work is simpler and has been shown to be more cost effective than JAR scales without losses of consumer acceptability.

  12. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2000 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Zabel, Richard; Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.

    2001-02-01

    In 2000, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the eight year of a study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A total of 20,313 hatchery steelhead were tagged with passive integrated transpoder (PIT) tags and released at Lower Granite Dam for reach survival estimation. They did not PIT tag any yearlying chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) for reach survival estimates in 2000 because sufficient numbers for these estimates were available from other studies. Primary research objectives in 2000 were (1) to estimate reach and project survival in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations, and (2) to evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. In addition, they estimated survival from point of release to Lower Granite Dam and below for chinook salmon, steelhead, and sockeye salmon (O.nerka) PIT tagged and released at Snake River basin hatcheries and chinook salmon and steelhead PIT tagged and released at Snake River basin hatcheries and chinook salmon and steelhead PIT tagged and released at Snake River basin smolt traps. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2000 for PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures. Further details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited in the text.

  13. Conditional Survival of All Primary Brain Tumor Patients by Age, Behavior, and Histology

    PubMed Central

    Porter, Kimberly R.; McCarthy, Bridget J.; Berbaum, Michael L.; Davis, Faith G.

    2011-01-01

    Background Survival statistics commonly reflect survival from the time of diagnosis but do not take into account survival already achieved after a diagnosis. The objective of this study was to provide conditional survival estimates for brain tumor patients as a more accurate measure of survival for those who have already survived for a specified amount of time after diagnosis. Methods Data on primary malignant and nonmalignant brain tumor cases diagnosed from 1985–2005 from selected SEER state cancer registries were obtained. Relative survival up to 15 years postdiagnosis and varying relative conditional survival rates were computed using the life-table method. Results The overall 1-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis was 67.8% compared to the 6-month relative conditional survival rate of 85.7% for 6-month survivors (the probability of surviving to 1 year given survival to 6 months). The 10-year overall relative survival rate was 49.5% from time of diagnosis compared to the 8-year relative conditional survival rate of 79.2% for 2-year survivors. Conditional survival estimates and standard survival estimates varied by histology, behavior, and age at diagnosis. The 5-year relative survival estimate derived from time of diagnosis for glioblastoma was 3.6% compared to the 3-year relative conditional survival rate of 36.4% for 2-year survivors. For most nonmalignant tumors, the difference between relative survival and the corresponding conditional survival estimates were minimal. Older age groups had greater numeric gains in survival but lower conditional survival estimates than other age groups. Similar findings were seen for other conditional survival intervals. Conclusions Conditional survival is a useful disease surveillance measure for clinicians and brain tumor survivors to provide them with better ‘real-time’ estimates and hope. PMID:21677447

  14. Juvenile Passage Program : A Plan for Estimating Smolt Travel Time and Survival in the Snake and Columbia Rivers

    SciTech Connect

    Skalski, J. R.; Giorgi, Albert E.

    1993-10-01

    A plan for developing a program to evaluate juvenile salmon passage is presented that encompasses the Snake (Lower Granite to McNary Dams), Mid-Columbia (Wells to McNary Dams), and Lower Columbia (McNary to Bonneville Dams) segments of the Snake/Columbia River system. This plan focuses on the use of PIT-tag technology to routinely estimate travel times and reach survival of outmigrating yearling and subyearling Chinook, sockeye, and steelhead during spring and summer months. The proposed program outlines tagging studies that could be implemented in (a) 1992, (b) near term (1993--94), and (c) long term (1995 to the next decade). The evolution of this program over time parallels plans to establish additional PIT-tag detector and slide-gate systems at Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams. The eventual ability to concurrently estimate travel time and survival of release groups will permit evaluation of travel time-survival-flow relationships and identify possible mortality {open_quotes}hot spots{close_quotes} for remediation.

  15. An estimator of the survival function based on the semi-Markov model under dependent censorship.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seung-Yeoun; Tsai, Wei-Yann

    2005-06-01

    Lee and Wolfe (Biometrics vol. 54 pp. 1176-1178, 1998) proposed the two-stage sampling design for testing the assumption of independent censoring, which involves further follow-up of a subset of lost-to-follow-up censored subjects. They also proposed an adjusted estimator for the survivor function for a proportional hazards model under the dependent censoring model. In this paper, a new estimator for the survivor function is proposed for the semi-Markov model under the dependent censorship on the basis of the two-stage sampling data. The consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are derived. The estimation procedure is illustrated with an example of lung cancer clinical trial and simulation results are reported of the mean squared errors of estimators under a proportional hazards and two different nonproportional hazards models.

  16. An estimator of the survival function based on the semi-Markov model under dependent censorship.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seung-Yeoun; Tsai, Wei-Yann

    2005-06-01

    Lee and Wolfe (Biometrics vol. 54 pp. 1176-1178, 1998) proposed the two-stage sampling design for testing the assumption of independent censoring, which involves further follow-up of a subset of lost-to-follow-up censored subjects. They also proposed an adjusted estimator for the survivor function for a proportional hazards model under the dependent censoring model. In this paper, a new estimator for the survivor function is proposed for the semi-Markov model under the dependent censorship on the basis of the two-stage sampling data. The consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are derived. The estimation procedure is illustrated with an example of lung cancer clinical trial and simulation results are reported of the mean squared errors of estimators under a proportional hazards and two different nonproportional hazards models. PMID:15938546

  17. Predictors of indoor absolute humidity and estimated effects on influenza virus survival in grade schools

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Low absolute humidity (AH) has been associated with increased influenza virus survival and transmissibility and the onset of seasonal influenza outbreaks. Humidification of indoor environments may mitigate viral transmission and may be an important control strategy, particularly in schools where viral transmission is common and contributes to the spread of influenza in communities. However, the variability and predictors of AH in the indoor school environment and the feasibility of classroom humidification to levels that could decrease viral survival have not been studied. Methods Automated sensors were used to measure temperature, humidity and CO2 levels in two Minnesota grade schools without central humidification during two successive winters. Outdoor AH measurements were derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. Variability in indoor AH within classrooms, between classrooms in the same school, and between schools was assessed using concordance correlation coefficients (CCC). Predictors of indoor AH were examined using time-series Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models. Classroom humidifiers were used when school was not in session to assess the feasibility of increasing indoor AH to levels associated with decreased influenza virus survival, as projected from previously published animal experiments. Results AH varied little within classrooms (CCC >0.90) but was more variable between classrooms in the same school (CCC 0.81 for School 1, 0.88 for School 2) and between schools (CCC 0.81). Indoor AH varied widely during the winter (range 2.60 to 10.34 millibars [mb]) and was strongly associated with changes in outdoor AH (p < 0.001). Changes in indoor AH on school weekdays were strongly associated with CO2 levels (p < 0.001). Over 4 hours, classroom humidifiers increased indoor AH by 4 mb, an increase sufficient to decrease projected 1-hour virus survival by an absolute value of 30% during winter months

  18. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1997 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Hockersmith, Eric E.

    1999-03-01

    This report consists of two parts describing research activities completed during 1997 under Bonneville Power Administration Project Number 93-29. Part 1 provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 1997 for PIT-tagged hatchery steelhead and yearling chinook salmon in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. The results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More detailed information on methodology and the statistical models used in the analysis are provided in previous annual reports cited in the text. Analysis of the relationships among travel time, survival, and environmental factors for 1997 and previous years of the study will be reported elsewhere. Part 2 of this report describes research to determine areas of loss and delay for juvenile hatchery salmonids above Lower Granite Reservoir.

  19. Estimation of Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus) survival, recapture, and recovery rate during and after a disease outbreak

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fonnesbeck, C.J.; Dodd, C.K., Jr.

    2003-01-01

    We estimated survivorship, recapture probabilities and recovery rates in a threatened population of Flattened Musk Turtles (Sternotherus depressus) through a disease outbreak in Alabama in 1985. We evaluated a set of models for the demographic effects of disease by analyzing recaptures and recoveries simultaneously. Multiple-model inference suggested survival was temporally dynamic, whereas recapture probability was sex- and age-specifc. Biweekly survivorship declined from 98-99% before to 82-88% during the outbreak. Live recapture was twice as likely for male turtles relative to juveniles or females, whereas dead recoveries varied only slightly by sex and age. Our results suggest modest reduction in survival over a relatively short time period may severely affect population status.

  20. Estimation of sex-specific survival from capture-recapture data when sex is not always known

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.; Spendelow, J.A.

    2004-01-01

    Many animals lack obvious sexual dimorphism, making assignment of sex difficult even for observed or captured animals. For many such species it is possible to assign sex with certainty only at some occasions; for example, when they exhibit certain types of behavior. A common approach to handling this situation in capture-recapture studies has been to group capture histories into those of animals eventually identified as male and female and those for which sex was never known. Because group membership is dependent on the number of occasions at which an animal was caught or observed (known sex animals, on average, will have been observed at more occasions than unknown-sex animals), survival estimates for known-sex animals will be positively biased, and those for unknown animals will be negatively biased. In this paper, we develop capture-recapture models that incorporate sex ratio and sex assignment parameters that permit unbiased estimation in the face of this sampling problem. We demonstrate the magnitude of bias in the traditional capture-recapture approach to this sampling problem, and we explore properties of estimators from other ad hoc approaches. The model is then applied to capture-recapture data for adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, 1993-2002. Sex ratio among adults in this population favors females, and we tested the hypothesis that this population showed sex-specific differences in adult survival. Evidence was provided for higher survival of adult females than males, as predicted. We recommend use of this modeling approach for future capture-recapture studies in which sex cannot always be assigned to captured or observed animals. We also place this problem in the more general context of uncertainty in state classification in multistate capture-recapture models.

  1. The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin; Gallant, Alisa L.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.; Battaglin, William A.; Green, David E.; Staiger, Jennifer S.; Walls, Susan C.; Gunzburger, Margaret S.; Kearney, Rick F.

    2006-01-01

    This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

  2. Model-based estimates of annual survival rate are preferable to observed maximum lifespan statistics for use in comparative life-history studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimates of longevity are available for many animals, and are commonly used in comparative life-history analyses. We suggest that annual survival rate is more appropriate life history parameter for most comparative life history analyses. Observed maximum longevities were not correlated with the annual survival rate estimates and appear to be unstable over time. We recommend that observed maximum lifespans not be used in life history analyses.

  3. Model assembly for estimating cell surviving fraction for both targeted and nontargeted effects based on microdosimetric probability densities.

    PubMed

    Sato, Tatsuhiko; Hamada, Nobuyuki

    2014-01-01

    We here propose a new model assembly for estimating the surviving fraction of cells irradiated with various types of ionizing radiation, considering both targeted and nontargeted effects in the same framework. The probability densities of specific energies in two scales, which are the cell nucleus and its substructure called a domain, were employed as the physical index for characterizing the radiation fields. In the model assembly, our previously established double stochastic microdosimetric kinetic (DSMK) model was used to express the targeted effect, whereas a newly developed model was used to express the nontargeted effect. The radioresistance caused by overexpression of anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-2 known to frequently occur in human cancer was also considered by introducing the concept of the adaptive response in the DSMK model. The accuracy of the model assembly was examined by comparing the computationally and experimentally determined surviving fraction of Bcl-2 cells (Bcl-2 overexpressing HeLa cells) and Neo cells (neomycin resistant gene-expressing HeLa cells) irradiated with microbeam or broadbeam of energetic heavy ions, as well as the WI-38 normal human fibroblasts irradiated with X-ray microbeam. The model assembly reproduced very well the experimentally determined surviving fraction over a wide range of dose and linear energy transfer (LET) values. Our newly established model assembly will be worth being incorporated into treatment planning systems for heavy-ion therapy, brachytherapy, and boron neutron capture therapy, given critical roles of the frequent Bcl-2 overexpression and the nontargeted effect in estimating therapeutic outcomes and harmful effects of such advanced therapeutic modalities.

  4. Heat loss and hypothermia in free diving: Estimation of survival time under water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilella-Arzo, Marcel; Alcaraz, Antonio; Aguilella, Vicente M.

    2003-04-01

    The heat exchange between a diver and the colder surrounding water is analyzed on the basis of the fundamental equations of thermal transport. To estimate the decrease in the diver's body temperature as a function of time, we discuss the complex interplay of several factors including the body heat production rate, the role of the diver's wet suit, and the way different heat exchange mechanisms (conduction, convection, and radiation) contribute to thermal transport. This knowledge could be useful to prevent physiological disorders that occur when the human body temperature drops below 35 °C.

  5. Scoring Systems to Estimate Intracerebral Control and Survival Rates of Patients Irradiated for Brain Metastases;Brain metastases; Radiation therapy; Local control; Survival; Prognostic scores

    SciTech Connect

    Rades, Dirk; Dziggel, Liesa; Haatanen, Tiina; Veninga, Theo; Lohynska, Radka; Dunst, Juergen; Schild, Steven E.

    2011-07-15

    Purpose: To create and validate scoring systems for intracerebral control (IC) and overall survival (OS) of patients irradiated for brain metastases. Methods and Materials: In this study, 1,797 patients were randomly assigned to the test (n = 1,198) or the validation group (n = 599). Two scoring systems were developed, one for IC and another for OS. The scores included prognostic factors found significant on multivariate analyses. Age, performance status, extracerebral metastases, interval tumor diagnosis to RT, and number of brain metastases were associated with OS. Tumor type, performance status, interval, and number of brain metastases were associated with IC. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 6-month IC or OS rate (given in percent) by 10. The total score represented the sum of the scores for each factor. The score groups of the test group were compared with the corresponding score groups of the validation group. Results: In the test group, 6-month IC rates were 17% for 14-18 points, 49% for 19-23 points, and 77% for 24-27 points (p < 0.0001). IC rates in the validation group were 19%, 52%, and 77%, respectively (p < 0.0001). In the test group, 6-month OS rates were 9% for 15-19 points, 41% for 20-25 points, and 78% for 26-30 points (p < 0.0001). OS rates in the validation group were 7%, 39%, and 79%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Patients irradiated for brain metastases can be given scores to estimate OS and IC. IC and OS rates of the validation group were similar to the test group demonstrating the validity and reproducibility of both scores.

  6. Survival Analysis to Estimate Association between Short-Term Mortality and Air Pollution

    PubMed Central

    Lepeule, Johanna; Rondeau, Virginie; Filleul, Laurent; Dartigues, Jean-Francois

    2006-01-01

    Background Ecologic studies are commonly used to report associations between short-term air pollution and mortality. In such studies, the unit of observation is the day rather than the individual. Moreover, individual data on the subjects are rarely available, which limits the assessment of individual risk factors. These associations can also be investigated using case–crossover studies. However, by definition, individual risk factors are not studied, and such studies analyze only dead subjects, which limits the statistical power. Objective We suggest that the survival analysis is more suitable when cohorts are examined with a time-dependent ecologic exposure. To our knowledge, to date this type of analysis has never been proposed. Design, participants, measurements In the present study we used a Cox proportional hazards model to investigate the distribution over time of the short-term effect of black smoke and sulfur dioxide in 439 nonaccidental and 158 cardiorespiratory deaths among the 1,469 subjects of the Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) cohort in Bordeaux, France. The model has a delayed entry and a polynomial distributed lag from 0 to 5 days. Results are adjusted for individual risk factors, temperature, relative humidity, weekday, season, influenza epidemics, and a time function to control temporal trends. Results We identified a positive and significant association between cardiorespiratory mortality and black smoke, with a 24% increase in deaths 3 days after a 10-μg/m3 increase in black smoke (95% confidence interval, 4–47%). Conclusions We conclude that the Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates is very suitable to investigate simultaneously the short-term effect of air pollution on health and the effect of individual risk factors on a cohort study. PMID:16451861

  7. Flexible models for analysing ring recovery data to estimate survival rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    We describe MULT, a flexible procedure for analysing ring recovery data. The procedure starts with parametric structures similar to, but more general than, those described by Brownie et al. (1985). Particular models, including those in Brownie et al. (1965), can be obtained by imposing constraints on the general parametric structures. Examples of models that are available in MULT include: analysis of ringing data when no birds are ringed in some years; analysis of twice-yearly ringing to estimate interval survivorship; and analysis of ringing data when survivorship is hypothesised to be a function of a covariate measured annually. We use North American ringings of Atlantic Brant (Branta bernicla hrota), Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), and Ring-necked Ducks (Aythya collaris) to illustrate the above models. MULT is a menu-driven, IBM-PC compatible program, and is available from the second author.

  8. True or False: Do 5-Year-Olds Understand Belief?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fabricius, William V.; Boyer, Ty W.; Weimer, Amy A.; Carroll, Kathleen

    2010-01-01

    In 3 studies (N = 188) we tested the hypothesis that children use a perceptual access approach to reason about mental states before they understand beliefs. The perceptual access hypothesis predicts a U-shaped developmental pattern of performance in true belief tasks, in which 3-year-olds who reason about reality should succeed, 4- to 5-year-olds…

  9. 2001 IFT Education Standards: A 5-Year Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartel, Richard W.

    2006-01-01

    The current IFT Education Standards used to evaluate Food Science programs for IFT approval have been in place now for 5 years. Most Food Science programs in the United States (as well as some in Mexico and Canada) have been reviewed according to these standards. The transition to instruction based on assessment of student learning outcomes, in…

  10. WCTC 5-Year Graduation Rates. Retention for Learning Presentation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brenner, Viktor; Sanford, Doug

    This study addresses Waukesha County Technical College's (WCTC) 5-year retention and graduate rates. Some of the key findings of the report are as follow: (1) overall, 35.4% of cohort students graduated; (2) a 4-year combined graduation rate for ethnic minorities was 26%, well below the overall average; (3) the percent of cohort that graduated…

  11. Stimulant Treatment over 5 Years: Effects on Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charach, Alice; Figueroa, Max; Chen, Shirley; Ickowicz, Abel; Schachar, Russell

    2006-01-01

    Objective: Long-term effects of psychostimulants on growth in height and in weight are investigated in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Method: Participants were 79 children, 6 to 12 years of age, with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, who were followed annually for up to 5 years, between the years 1993 and 1994 and…

  12. Respiratory Viruses Associated Hospitalization among Children Aged <5 Years in Bangladesh: 2010-2014

    PubMed Central

    Homaira, Nusrat; Luby, Stephen P.; Hossain, Kamal; Islam, Kariul; Ahmed, Makhdum; Rahman, Mustafizur; Rahman, Ziaur; Paul, Repon C.; Bhuiyan, Mejbah Uddin; Brooks, W. Abdullah; Sohel, Badrul Munir; Banik, Kajal Chandra; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Willby, Melisa; Rahman, Mahmudur; Bresee, Joseph; Ramirez, Katharine-Sturm; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Background We combined hospital-based surveillance and health utilization survey data to estimate the incidence of respiratory viral infections associated hospitalization among children aged < 5 years in Bangladesh. Methods Surveillance physicians collected respiratory specimens from children aged <5 years hospitalized with respiratory illness and residing in the primary hospital catchment areas. We tested respiratory specimens for respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, human metapneumovirus, influenza, adenovirus and rhinoviruses using rRT-PCR. During 2013, we conducted a health utilization survey in the primary catchment areas of the hospitals to determine the proportion of all hospitalizations for respiratory illness among children aged <5 years at the surveillance hospitals during the preceding 12 months. We estimated the respiratory virus-specific incidence of hospitalization by dividing the estimated number of hospitalized children with a laboratory confirmed infection with a respiratory virus by the population aged <5 years of the catchment areas and adjusted for the proportion of children who were hospitalized at the surveillance hospitals. Results We estimated that the annual incidence per 1000 children (95% CI) of all cause associated respiratory hospitalization was 11.5 (10–12). The incidences per 1000 children (95% CI) per year for respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus and influenza infections were 3(2–3), 0.5(0.4–0.8), 0.4 (0.3–0.6), 0.4 (0.3–0.6), and 0.4 (0.3–0.6) respectively. The incidences per 1000 children (95%CI) of rhinovirus-associated infections among hospitalized children were 5 (3–7), 2 (1–3), 1 (0.6–2), and 3 (2–4) in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively. Conclusion Our data suggest that respiratory viruses are associated with a substantial burden of hospitalization in children aged <5 years in Bangladesh. PMID:26840782

  13. A spatial capture-recapture model to estimate fish survival and location from linear continuous monitoring arrays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Raabe, Joshua K.; Gardner, Beth; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2013-01-01

    We developed a spatial capture–recapture model to evaluate survival and activity centres (i.e., mean locations) of tagged individuals detected along a linear array. Our spatially explicit version of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, analyzed using a Bayesian framework, correlates movement between periods and can incorporate environmental or other covariates. We demonstrate the model using 2010 data for anadromous American shad (Alosa sapidissima) tagged with passive integrated transponders (PIT) at a weir near the mouth of a North Carolina river and passively monitored with an upstream array of PIT antennas. The river channel constrained migrations, resulting in linear, one-dimensional encounter histories that included both weir captures and antenna detections. Individual activity centres in a given time period were a function of the individual’s previous estimated location and the river conditions (i.e., gage height). Model results indicate high within-river spawning mortality (mean weekly survival = 0.80) and more extensive movements during elevated river conditions. This model is applicable for any linear array (e.g., rivers, shorelines, and corridors), opening new opportunities to study demographic parameters, movement or migration, and habitat use.

  14. An estimate of the survival benefit of improving vitamin D status in the adult german population

    PubMed Central

    von Helden, Raimund; Grant, William; Kipshoven, Christoph; Ringe, Johann D

    2009-01-01

    Background Inadequate vitamin D status is a worldwide problem. Evidence is accumulating that individuals with low vitamin D status have excess mortality rates. We calculated to which extent annual mortality rates can be reduced in the German population by optimizing vitamin D status. Results Mean serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D in the DEVID study cohort were 41 nmol/l (SD: 22 nmol/l). More than 90% of individuals had 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations below the threshold that was associated with lowest mortality risk in the two aforementioned trials (75 nmol/l). According to conservative estimations, at least 2.2% of all deaths or 18,300 lives annually can be saved by achieving 25(OH)D concentrations of at least 75 nmol/l in the entire adult German population. Available data provide evidence for an exponential increase in total mortality with deficient 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations. Methods Our calculations are based on (1) an annual mortality rate of 1.34% in the adult German population as provided by the Statistical Yearbook, (2) the actual vitamin D status in German adults with a high mortality risk as assessed in 1,343 individuals from 264 general practitioners in different German regions (DEVID study), and (3) data from two very large prospective cohorts (Dobnig et al. 2008; Melamed et al. 2008) about the excess mortality in individuals with inadequate vitamin D status. Conclusion Improving vitamin D status in a population with inadequate vitamin D status might be an effective strategy to reduce annual mortality rates. PMID:21572875

  15. Survival Estimates for Juvenile Fish Subjected to a Laboratory-Generated Shear Environment

    SciTech Connect

    Neitzel, Duane A.; Dauble, Dennis D.; Cada, G. F.; Richmond, Marshall C.; Guensch, Greg R.; Mueller, Robert P.; Abernethy, Cary S.; Amidan, Brett G.

    2004-03-01

    Juvenile rainbow trout and steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, spring and fall chinook salmon O. tshawytscha, and American shad Alosa sapidissima were exposed to shear environments in the laboratory to determine the rate of strain that would kill or injure them. Fish were exposed to a submerged jet of water with exit velocities adjustable from 0 to 21.3 m/sec. The exposure strain rates for our tests ranged from 0 to about 1100 sec-1. The greatest strain rate tested is beyond rates expected in most natural fish habitat or during passage through the turbine intake of a hydroelectric dam. The rate of strain experienced by test fish varied based on a change in distance or scale of 1.8 cm, the approximate width of the fish tested. Turbulence intensity in the area of the jet where fish were subjected to the shear environment was +3 to 6% of the estimated exposure strain rate. Injuries and mortalities increased with increasing strain rates. There were no significant injuries to any fish subjected to rates of strain !U500 sec-1. American shad were the most susceptible to injury after being subjected to a shear environment while steelhead and rainbow trout were the most resistant. Fish exposed head first to the jet had higher injury/mortality rates than fish introduced tail first. Our studies reinforce past conclusions that a one-time exposure to shear environments exceeding a change in velocity of 15 m/sec over 1.8 cm is harmful to juvenile fish. The associated exposure strain rate for these velocities is ~850 sec-1 at a measurement scale of Dy = 1.8 cm.

  16. General paediatric surgery for patients aged under 5 years: a 5-year experience at a district general hospital.

    PubMed

    Kwok, C-S; Gordon, A C

    2016-09-01

    Introduction The gradual shift of general paediatric surgery (GPS) provision from district general hospitals (DGH) to specialised units is well recognised in the UK. The consequences of centralisation include a reduction in exposure to GPS for current surgical trainees. The GPS practice of a DGH is examined here. Methods All operations performed on children aged under 5 years over a 5-year period were identified using the local electronic operation database. Electronic hospital records and clinic letters were accessed to collect data on demographics, operations performed and outcome measures. Results 472 GPS operations were performed on children between the age of 22 days and 5 years between 2009 and 2014, of which 43 were on an emergency basis and 105 were performed on patients aged less than 1 year. Three patients were admitted following day case surgery. Six patients were readmitted within 30 days. Complication rates for all procedures and the four most common procedures were similar to those found in published literature. Conclusions GPS for patients aged less than 5 years is comparatively safe in the DGH setting. The training opportunities available at DGHs are invaluable to surgical trainees and vital for sustaining the future provision of GPS by such hospitals. PMID:27269243

  17. Tracheobronchopathia osteochondroplastica in a 5 year-old girl.

    PubMed

    Sant'Anna, Clemax Couto; Pires-de-Mello, Paulo; Morgado, Maria de Fátima; March, Maria de Fátima Pombo

    2012-12-01

    Tracheobronchopathia osteochondroplastica (TO) is considered an orphan disease with exceptional occurrence in children. We report a 5 year old female child who was referred to us with chronic cough and recurrent pneumonia. After several investigations, bronchoscopy showed multiple nodules in the tracheobronchial lumen, whose distribution was consistent with TO. The patient was followed for four years, with no change in the pattern of the disease.

  18. [5-year experience with BCG immunoprophylaxis in superficial bladder cancer].

    PubMed

    Romics, I; Bach, D; Rüssel, C

    1992-09-01

    Our 5-year experience with BCG in the tumor stage pTis, pTa and pT1, G I-II shows a lasting remission of 88.5% (73%) in 78 (26) patients treated with BCG preparation Pasteur (Connaught) after transurethral resection. A complete remission in patients with carcinoma in situ (12 patients) could be found in 92%. The local and systemic side-effects, which are of limited duration, are tolerable, well treatable and fully reversible.

  19. The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin; Gallant, Alisa L.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.; Battaglin, William A.; Green, David E.; Staiger, Jennifer S.; Walls, Susan C.; Gunzburger, Margaret S.; Kearney, Rick F.

    2006-01-01

    Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of mon

  20. Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

    PubMed Central

    Neira, Marco; Lacroix, Renaud; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Kaiser, Paul E; Young, Josue; Pineda, Lleysa; Black, Isaac; Sosa, Nestor; Nimmo, Derric; Alphey, Luke; McKemey, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed. PMID:25410991

  1. Sabril® registry 5-year results: Characteristics of adult patients treated with vigabatrin.

    PubMed

    Krauss, Gregory; Faught, Edward; Foroozan, Rod; Pellock, John M; Sergott, Robert C; Shields, W Donald; Ziemann, Adam; Dribinsky, Yekaterina; Lee, Deborah; Torri, Sarah; Othman, Feisal; Isojarvi, Jouko

    2016-03-01

    Vigabatrin (Sabril®), approved in the US in 2009, is currently indicated as adjunctive therapy for refractory complex partial seizures (rCPS) in patients ≥ 10 years old who have responded inadequately to several alternative treatments and as monotherapy for infantile spasms (IS) in patients 1 month to 2 years of age. Because of reports of vision loss following vigabatrin exposure, FDA approval required a risk evaluation mitigation strategy (REMS) program. Vigabatrin is only available in the US through Support, Help, And Resources for Epilepsy (SHARE), which includes a mandated registry. This article describes 5 years of demographic and treatment exposure data from adult patients (≥ 17 years old) in the US treated with vigabatrin and monitored in the ongoing Sabril® registry. Registry participation is mandatory for all US Sabril® prescribers and patients. A benefit-risk assessment must be documented by the physician for a patient to progress to maintenance therapy, defined as 1 month of vigabatrin treatment for patients with IS and 3 months for patients with rCPS. Ophthalmologic assessments must be documented during and after completion of therapy. As of August 26, 2014, a total of 6823 patients were enrolled in the registry, of which 1200 were adults at enrollment. Of these patients, 1031 (86%) were naïve to vigabatrin. The majority of adult patients (n=783, 65%) had previously been prescribed ≥ 4 AEDs, and 719 (60%) were receiving ≥ 3 concomitant AEDs at vigabatrin initiation. Prescribers submitted an initial ophthalmological assessment form for 863 patients; an ophthalmologic exam was not completed for 300 (35%) patients and thus, were considered exempted from vision testing. Of these patients, 128 (43%) were exempted for neurologic disabilities. Clinicians discontinued treatment in 8 patients because of visual field deficits (VFD) (5 patients naïve to vigabatrin and 3 patients previously exposed). Based on Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, it is

  2. Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

    2009-01-01

    Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

  3. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Zabel, Richard; Williams, John G.; Smith, Steven G.

    2002-06-01

    In 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the ninth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. We PIT tagged and released at Lower Granite Dam a total of 17,028 hatchery and 3,550 wild steelhead. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream of the hydropower system and sites within the hydropower system. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release Model. Primary research objectives in 2001 were to: (1) estimate reach and project survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2001 for PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited in the text. Results for summer-migrating chinook salmon will be reported separately.

  4. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2002-2003 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Muir, William D.; Smith, Steven G.; Zabel, Richard W.

    2003-07-01

    In 2002, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the tenth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder tags (PIT tags). We PIT tagged and released a total of 19,891 hatchery steelhead at Lower Granite Dam. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from the hydropower system and sites within the hydropower system. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the ''Single-Release Model''). Primary research objectives in 2002 were to (1) estimate reach and project survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling chinook salmon O. tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2002 for PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures; details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here. Results for summer-migrating chinook salmon will be reported separately.

  5. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2005-2006 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.; Marsh, Douglas M.

    2006-05-01

    In 2005, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the thirteenth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder tags (PIT tags). We PIT tagged and released a total of 18,439 hatchery steelhead, 5,315 wild steelhead, and 6,964 wild yearling Chinook salmon at Lower Granite Dam in the Snake River. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from the hydropower system and at sites within the hydropower system in both the Snake and Columbia Rivers. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, Ice Harbor, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the ''single-release model''). Primary research objectives in 2005 were: (1) Estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss. (2) Evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions. (3) Evaluate the survival estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2005 for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Additional details on the methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here.

  6. Prone Breast Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy: 5-Year Results

    SciTech Connect

    Osa, Etin-Osa O.; DeWyngaert, Keith; Roses, Daniel; Speyer, James; Guth, Amber; Axelrod, Deborah; Fenton Kerimian, Maria; Goldberg, Judith D.; Formenti, Silvia C.

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: To report the 5-year results of a technique of prone breast radiation therapy delivered by a regimen of accelerated intensity modulated radiation therapy with a concurrent boost to the tumor bed. Methods and Materials: Between 2003 and 2006, 404 patients with stage I-II breast cancer were prospectively enrolled into 2 consecutive protocols, institutional trials 03-30 and 05-181, that used the same regimen of 40.5 Gy/15 fractions delivered to the index breast over 3 weeks, with a concomitant daily boost to the tumor bed of 0.5 Gy (total dose 48 Gy). All patients were treated after segmental mastectomy and had negative margins and nodal assessment. Patients were set up prone: only if lung or heart volumes were in the field was a supine setup attempted and chosen if found to better spare these organs. Results: Ninety-two percent of patients were treated prone, 8% supine. Seventy-two percent had stage I, 28% stage II invasive breast cancer. In-field lung volume ranged from 0 to 228.27 cm{sup 3}, mean 19.65 cm{sup 3}. In-field heart volume for left breast cancer patients ranged from 0 to 21.24 cm{sup 3}, mean 1.59 cm{sup 3}. There was no heart in the field for right breast cancer patients. At a median follow-up of 5 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence of isolated ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence was 0.82% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65%-1.04%). The 5-year cumulative incidence of regional recurrence was 0.53% (95% CI 0.41%-0.69%), and the 5-year overall cumulative death rate was 1.28% (95% CI 0.48%-3.38%). Eighty-two percent (95% CI 77%-85%) of patients judged their final cosmetic result as excellent/good. Conclusions: Prone accelerated intensity modulated radiation therapy with a concomitant boost results in excellent local control and optimal sparing of heart and lung, with good cosmesis. Radiation Therapy Oncology Group protocol 1005, a phase 3, multi-institutional, randomized trial is ongoing and is evaluating the equivalence of a similar dose and

  7. Giant parietal lobe infantile gliosarcoma in a 5-year-old child

    PubMed Central

    Savant, Hemant V.; Balasubramaniam, Srikant; Mahajan, Vijay

    2015-01-01

    The relative frequency of pediatric gliosarcoma (GSM) is 1.9% among glioblastomas and 0.5% among pediatric central nervous system tumors. A 5-year-old female child came to us with history of fever and loss of appetite since 2 weeks and right sided weakness since 4 days. Magnetic resonance imaging showed a large heterogeneously enhancing space occupying lesion in the left parieto-occipital region. A parieto-occipital craniotomy with radical excision of tumor was performed. The patient was given adjuvant therapy following surgery and survived until 9 months following surgery. The etiopathogenesis, treatment modalities and prognosis of GSM is discussed. PMID:26167224

  8. Giant parietal lobe infantile gliosarcoma in a 5-year-old child.

    PubMed

    Savant, Hemant V; Balasubramaniam, Srikant; Mahajan, Vijay

    2015-01-01

    The relative frequency of pediatric gliosarcoma (GSM) is 1.9% among glioblastomas and 0.5% among pediatric central nervous system tumors. A 5-year-old female child came to us with history of fever and loss of appetite since 2 weeks and right sided weakness since 4 days. Magnetic resonance imaging showed a large heterogeneously enhancing space occupying lesion in the left parieto-occipital region. A parieto-occipital craniotomy with radical excision of tumor was performed. The patient was given adjuvant therapy following surgery and survived until 9 months following surgery. The etiopathogenesis, treatment modalities and prognosis of GSM is discussed.

  9. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2003-2004 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.; Zabel, Richard W.

    2004-01-01

    For juvenile chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, sockeye salmon O. nerka, and steelhead O. mykiss that migrate through reservoirs, hydroelectric projects, and free-flowing sections of the Snake and Columbia Rivers, survival estimates are essential to develop effective strategies for recovering depressed stocks. Many management strategies were based on estimates of system survival (Raymond 1979; Sims and Ossiander 1981) derived in a river system considerably different from today's (Williams and Matthews 1995; Williams et al. 2001). Knowledge of the magnitude, locations, and causes of smolt mortality under present passage conditions, and under conditions projected for the future, are necessary to develop strategies that will optimize smolt survival during migration. From 1993 through 2002, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the University of Washington (UW) demonstrated the feasibility of using three statistical models to estimate survival of PIT-tagged (Prentice et al. 1990a) juvenile salmonids passing through Snake River dams and reservoirs (Iwamoto et al. 1994; Muir et al. 1995, 1996, 2001a, 2003; Smith et al. 1998, 2000a,b; Hockersmith et al. 1999; Zabel et al. 2001, 2002). Evaluation of assumptions for these models indicated that all were generally satisfied, and accurate and precise survival estimates were obtained. In 2003, NMFS and UW completed the eleventh year of the study. Flow levels during the early portion of the 2003 spring migration were similar to 2002, and only slightly higher than in the drought conditions during 2001. However, flow levels were much greater during the later part of the migration in 2003. Spill levels were similar to 2002, much higher than in 2001. Research objectives were to: (1) estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate

  10. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2004-2005 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.; Marsh, Douglas M.

    2005-10-01

    In 2004, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the twelfth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder tags (PIT tags). We PIT tagged and released a total of 19,621 hatchery steelhead, 8,128 wild steelhead, and 9,227 wild yearling Chinook salmon at Lower Granite Dam. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from the hydropower system and sites within the hydropower system. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the single-release model). Primary research objectives in 2004 were to (1) estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2004 for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures; details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here. Survival and detection probabilities were estimated precisely for most of the 2004 yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead migrations. Hatchery and

  11. Trisomy 13 in a female over 5 years of age.

    PubMed Central

    Mankinen, C B; Sears, J W

    1976-01-01

    A case of simple trisomy 13, confirmed by G-banded chromosome analysis, is reported in a Caucasian female over 5 years of age. There is no cytogenetic evidence available for mosaicism in the propositus or her parents. The patient's salient clinical features are: profound mental and motor retardation; microcephaly with trigonocephaly; ear malformations; small, sunken eyes; unusual eyebrows; cleft lip and palate; bulbar nose; coloboma iris; polydactyly; unusual dermatoglyphic patterns; large adductor thumbs; enlarged great toes; multiple capillary haemangiomas; club feet; inguinal and umbilical hernias; hyperconvexed fingernails; and seizure disorder. Images PMID:933114

  12. [The results of 5-year-long research of sclerotherapy of liver metastases by ultrasonography].

    PubMed

    Borsukov, A V

    2001-01-01

    64 patients with liver metastases have been studied (mammary gland--6 cases, stomach--15, colon--32, other locations--11) and US metastasis semiotics and the fine aspiration biopsy have been identified. 12 cases had underwent intraoperative 96% ethanol infusion, 52 had got transdermal infusions under US control. The survival rate of colon cases with dissemination was: 1 year S.--100%, 3 year S.--53.1%, 5 year S.--3.1%. In cases with noncolon dissemination the percentage of survival was: 1 year S.--68.8%, 2 year S.--9.4%, 3 year S.--3.0%. 96% ethanol sclerotherapy proved to be more effective in single metachronic metastases of the colon malignancies.

  13. Survival of timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) estimated by capture-recapture models in relation to age, sex, color morph, time, and birthplace

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, W.S.; Kery, M.; Hines, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Juvenile survival is one of the least known elements of the life history of many species, in particular snakes. We conducted a mark-recapture study of Crotalus horridus from 1978-2002 in northeastern New York near the northern limits of the species' range. We marked 588 neonates and estimated annual age-, sex-, and morph-specific recapture and survival rates using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. Wild-caught neonates (field-born, n = 407) and neonates produced by captive-held gravid females (lab-born, n = 181) allowed comparison of the birthplace, or lab treatment effect, in estimated survival. Recapture rates declined from about 10-20% over time while increasing from young to older age classes. Estimated survival rates (S ' 1 SE) in the first year were significantly higher among field-born (black morph: S = 0.773 ' 0.203; yellow morph: S = 0.531 ' 0.104) than among lab-born snakes (black morph: S = 0.411 ' 0.131; yellow morph: S = 0.301 ' 0.081). Lower birth weights combined with a lack of field exposure until release apparently contributed to the lower survival rate of lab-born snakes. Subsequent survival estimates for 2-4-yr-old snakes were S = 0.845 ' 0.084 for the black morph and S = 0.999 (SE not available) for the yellow morph, and for >= 5-yr-old snakes S = 0.958 ' 0.039 (black morph) and S = 0.822 ' 0.034 (yellow morph). The most parsimonious model overall contained an independent time trend for survival of each age, morph, and lab-treatment group. For snakes of the first two age groups (ages 1 yr and 2-4 yr), survival tended to decline over the years for both morphs, while for adult snakes (5 yr and older), survival was constant or even slightly increased. Our data on survival and recapture are among the first rigorous estimates of these parameters in a rattlesnake and among the few yet available for any viperid snake. These data are useful for analyses of the life-history strategy, population dynamics, and conservation of this long-lived snake.

  14. Survival of timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) estimated by capture-recapture models in relation to age, sex, color morph, time, and birthplace

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, W.S.; Kery, M.; Hines, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Juvenile survival is one of the least known elements of the life history of many species, in particular snakes. We conducted a mark-recapture study of Crotalus horridus from 1978-2002 in northeastern New York near the northern limits of the species' range. We marked 588 neonates and estimated annual age-, sex-, and morph-specific recapture and survival rates using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. Wild-caught neonates (field-born, n = 407) and neonates produced by captive-held gravid females (lab-born, n = 181) allowed comparison of the birthplace, or lab treatment effect, in estimated survival. Recapture rates declined from about 10-20% over time while increasing from young to older age classes. Estimated survival rates (S ?? 1 SE) in the first year were significantly higher among field-born (black morph: S = 0.773 ?? 0.203; yellow morph: S = 0.531 ?? 0.104) than among lab-born snakes (black morph: S = 0.411 ?? 0.131; yellow morph: S = 0.301 ?? 0.081). Lower birth weights combined with a lack of field exposure until release apparently contributed to the lower survival rate of labborn snakes. Subsequent survival estimates for 2-4-yr-old snakes were S = 0.845 ?? 0.084 for the black morph and S = 0.999 (SE not available) for the yellow morph, and for ???5-yr-old snakes S = 0.958 ?? 0.039 (black morph) and S = 0.822 ?? 0.034 (yellow morph). The most parsimonious model overall contained an independent time trend for survival of each age, morph, and lab-treatment group. For snakes of the first two age groups (ages 1 yr and 2-4 yr), survival tended to decline over the years for both morphs, while for adult snakes (5 yr and older), survival was constant or even slightly increased. Our data on survival and recapture are among the first rigorous estimates of these parameters in a rattlesnake and among the few yet available for any viperid snake. These data are useful for analyses of the life-history strategy, population dynamics, and conservation of this long-lived snake

  15. Aging process on spectrally determined spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity: a 5-year prospective study.

    PubMed

    Fauvel, Jean-Pierre; Cerutti, Catherine; Mpio, Ignace; Ducher, Michel

    2007-09-01

    The interindividual age-related decrease in baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) was reported in many cross-sectional studies. However, the long-term intraindividual decrease in BRS has never been confirmed by longitudinal studies. Data obtained from a 5-year prospective study designed to assess the 5-year stress effects on blood pressure (BP) provided the opportunity to assess longitudinal aging process on spectrally determined BRS (S-BRS) using the cross spectral analysis. This analysis was carried out in 205 men aged between 18 and 50 years who had 2 valid beat to beat BP recordings (Finapress) at a mean 5-year interval. At inclusion and at end of follow-up, S-BRS was significantly correlated with age (r=-0.50, P<0.001, r=-0.33, P<0.001 respectively). Interestingly, the slopes and the intercepts were not significantly different at a 5-year interval. This result is in favor of the good reproducibility of S-BRS. The attenuation with age of S-BRS was calculated at 3.6% a year. This decrease was slightly higher than the one obtained with the baseline data (2.3% per year). This longitudinal study provided, for the first time, an estimate of the slope of the age-related physiological S-BRS decrease in a mid-aged healthy male population. Our findings reinforce the interest of evaluating spontaneous BRS reported to predict hypertension and cardiovascular events in various populations.

  16. Natural history of alcoholic myopathy: a 5-year study.

    PubMed

    Estruch, R; Sacanella, E; Fernández-Solá, J; Nicolás, J M; Rubin, E; Urbano-Márquez, A

    1998-12-01

    Chronic myopathy is a common complication of alcoholism, but its natural history has not been well described. We, therefore, studied muscle structure and function in a 5-year study of 30 chronic alcoholics who became abstinent and 20 who relapsed, and 40 control subjects. The mean strength of the abstaining alcoholics increased from 18.6 to 23.2 kg; but, after 5 years, they were still substantially weaker than controls. In a subset who showed histological myopathy, the strength of half of the patients remained two standard deviations below that of controls. Alcoholics who relapsed tended to become progressively weaker (21.7 kg vs. 18.2 kg) and develop histological evidence of myopathy. Thus, continued alcohol abuse was generally reflected in deterioration of muscle strength and the appearance of histological injury to muscle. Importantly, almost half of the sober patients did not recover to normal levels, indicating that alcoholic myopathy is only partially reversible. We also unexpectedly found that, in some alcoholics, a substantial reduction in the amount of alcohol consumed may be as effective as complete abstinence in improving muscle strength or preventing its deterioration.

  17. The acquired cardiac disease domain: the next 5 years.

    PubMed

    Pepper, John R

    2013-01-01

    At a recent in-house meeting at the European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery (EACTS) headquarters in Windsor, the Chairs of the four domains were asked by the President to present their perception of the next 5 years in their respective domains. This review represents a distillation of our discussions on adult cardiac surgery. Advances in technology and imaging are having a radical effect on the working lives of surgeons. In clinical practice, the growth of heart teams and the breaking down of artificial barriers between specialities are altering the way we practice for the better. We see the development of hybrid approaches to many areas such as coronary artery surgery and operations on the thoracic aorta. These changes require careful analysis to ensure that they produce better outcomes that are also cost-effective. All health-care systems are at breaking point, and it is our responsibility to harness new technology to benefit our patients. This is all part of placing the patient at the centre of our activities. Hence, we see the involvement of patients in the design and analysis of clinical trials, which also require great mutual trust and cooperation between surgeons in different countries. Because of the dramatic changes in the pattern of working, we have had to alter our patterns of training and education, and we will continue to make significant innovations in the future. These are exciting challenges that will keep us all busy for the next 5 years at least.

  18. Predictive 5-Year Survivorship Model of Cystic Fibrosis

    PubMed Central

    Liou, Theodore G.; Adler, Frederick R.; FitzSimmons, Stacey C.; Cahill, Barbara C.; Hibbs, Jonathan R.; Marshall, Bruce C.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study was to create a 5-year survivorship model to identify key clinical features of cystic fibrosis. Such a model could help researchers and clinicians to evaluate therapies, improve the design of prospective studies, monitor practice patterns, counsel individual patients, and determine the best candidates for lung transplantation. The authors used information from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR), which has collected longitudinal data on approximately 90% of cystic fibrosis patients diagnosed in the United States since 1986. They developed multivariate logistic regression models by using data on 5,820 patients randomly selected from 11,630 in the CFFPR in 1993. Models were tested for goodness of fit and were validated for the remaining 5,810 patients for 1993. The validated 5-year survivorship model included age, forced expiratory volume in 1 second as a percentage of predicted normal, gender, weight-for-age z score, pancreatic sufficiency, diabetes mellitus, Staphylococcus aureus infection, Burkerholderia cepacia infection, and annual number of acute pulmonary exacerbations. The model provides insights into the complex nature of cystic fibrosis and supplies a rigorous tool for clinical practice and research. PMID:11207152

  19. Estimated Fall Chinook Salmon Survival to Emergence in Dewatered Redds in a Shallow Side Channel of the Columbia River

    SciTech Connect

    McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; James, B B.; Lukas, Joe

    2005-08-01

    Fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) often spawn in the tailraces of large hydroelectric dams on the Columbia River. Redds built in shallow habitats downstream of these dams may be periodically dewatered due to hydropower operations prior to the emergence of fry. To determine whether fall Chinook salmon redds were successful in a shallow area subjected to periodic dewatering downstream of Wanapum Dam on the Columbia River, we installed 7 redd caps and monitored fry emergence. Large numbers of live fry were captured from the redds between March 9 and May 18, 2003. Estimated survival from egg to fry for these redds, which were all subjected to some degree of dewatering during the incubation and post-hatch intragravel rearing period, ranged from 16.1 to 63.2 percent and averaged 27.8 percent (assuming 4,500 eggs/redd). The peak emergence date ranged from April 1 to 29, with the average peak about April 14, 2003. Mean fork length of fall Chinook salmon emerging from individual redds ranged from 38.3 to 41.2 mm, and lengths of fish emerging from individual redds increased throughout the emergence period.

  20. Renal amyloidosis followed more than 5 years: report of 12 cases.

    PubMed

    Kaaroud, H; Boubaker, K; Béji, S; Abderrahim, E; Moussa, F Ben; Turki, S; Goucha, R; Hedri, H; El Younsi, F; Kheder, A; Maiz, H Ben

    2004-01-01

    Renal involvement with amyloidosis is common but causes patient survival to be poor, rarely reaching 5 years. In this study, we retrospectively reviewed clinical and biological characteristics as well as treatments and outcomes of patients with renal amyloidosis followed for more than 5 years. Between 1975 and 2003, 485 patients were diagnosed with renal amyloidosis including only 12 patients who were followed more than 5 years. The six men and six women of mean age 42.4 years (range 18 to 66 years) displayed renal signs of lower limb edema in all cases; hypertension in four cases, proteinuria on urinalysis in all cases with microscopic hematuria in five cases. Biological tests showed nephrotic syndrome in 11 patients, normal renal function in nine patients, and renal failure in three patients whose mean creatinine was 481.6 micromol/L (range 294 to 726). The amyloidosis was AA type in 11 cases and non-AA in one case. An etiologic survey revealed spondylarthropathy in one patient, pulmonary tuberculosis in two patients, chronic bronchitis in three patients, hepatic hydatic cyst in one patient, Mediterranean familial fever in two patients, Crohn's disease in one patient, Hodgkin's lymphoma in one patient, and multiple myeloma in one patient. Specific treatment was initiated with colchicine in seven patients. At a 110-month mean follow-up (range 53 to 153 months), remission of nephrotic syndrome was observed in four cases, progression to chronic renal failure in two patients, and to end-stage renal failure in five cases (range 53 to 196 months), with stabilization of renal function in seven patients. In conclusion, primary amyloid disease should be optimally suppressed in patients with renal involvement. The role of this treatment in remission of renal amyloidosis is not well established. This efficacy of the treatment has been demonstrated in some patients with improved survival.

  1. Estimation of genetic parameters for measures of calf survival in a population of Holstein heifer calves from a heifer-raising facility in New York State.

    PubMed

    Henderson, L; Miglior, F; Sewalem, A; Kelton, D; Robinson, A; Leslie, K E

    2011-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to estimate the genetic parameters of survival to weaning and survival to exit for a population of Holstein calves from New York State, as well as to associate the estimated breeding values determined in the current study with traits from ongoing genetic evaluations used in Canada and the United States. Data were recorded for 7,372 heifer calves at a commercial rearing facility in New York State from arrival at 1 to 7 d of age for the duration of stay at the facility (on average, heifers departed the facility 1 mo before calving). Performance and disease up to weaning and mortality before and after weaning were recorded. Analyzed data were limited to daughters of sires with at least 10 calves originating from farms that had sent a minimum of 5 calves to be raised at the facility. As such, calves from 264 sires and 36 herds were studied using 2 statistical methods. The first method, calf survival, used a Weibull proportional hazards model, with survival defined as age at culling, death, or censoring. The second method, a 2-trait sire model, included survival from arrival to weaning (SUV1) and survival from weaning to exit (SUV2). Both models included fixed effects of arrival weight, serum total protein, weaning weight, season and year of birth, and calving ease score. Herd and sire were included as random effects. Significant associations among all fixed effects and calf survival were observed. In general, very light or heavy weight at arrival, low total protein, low weaning weight, and difficult birth increased risk of mortality for calves. The heritability of survival from the first method was 0.063. The heritabilities from the linear model were 0.001 for SUV1 and 0.036 for SUV2. The genetic correlation between SUV1 and SUV2 was 0.58. Genetic variance was close to zero for survival of calves to weaning, but was greater for survival after weaning through the growing period. Breeding values were estimated for SUV1 and SUV2 and

  2. A Bayesian estimation on right censored survival data with mixture and non-mixture cured fraction model based on Beta-Weibull distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusuf, Madaki Umar; Bakar, Mohd. Rizam B. Abu

    2016-06-01

    Models for survival data that includes the proportion of individuals who are not subject to the event under study are known as a cure fraction models or simply called long-term survival models. The two most common models used to estimate the cure fraction are the mixture model and the non-mixture model. in this work, we present mixture and the non-mixture cure fraction models for survival data based on the beta-Weibull distribution. This four parameter distribution has been proposed as an alternative extension of the Weibull distribution in the analysis of lifetime data. This approach allows the inclusion of covariates in the models, where the estimation of the parameters was obtained under a Bayesian approach using Gibbs sampling methods.

  3. Maternal anxiety: a 5-year review of an intervention study.

    PubMed

    Barnett, B; Schaafsma, M F; Guzman, A M; Parker, G B

    1991-03-01

    Primiparous women were divided into groups according to their post-partum trait anxiety scores. Professional or non-professional support for the first 12 months was offered to two subgroups of high trait anxiety subjects. At the 5-year follow-up the high-anxiety mothers (n = 57) manifested more psychological and social pathology than moderate- and low-anxiety mothers (n = 43), and their children also showed signs of poorer adaptation. There was evidence of improved outcome for mothers in the professional intervention group, but not for their children. Child psychopathology was predicted best by maternal psychosocial variables, and to a lesser extent by child temperament variables. The relation of infant attachment and temperament measures to subsequent psychopathology is discussed.

  4. Achalasia 5 years following Roux-en-y gastric bypass

    PubMed Central

    Torghabeh, Mehyar Hefazi; Afaneh, Cheguevara; Saif, Taha; Dakin, Gregory F.

    2015-01-01

    Oesophageal achalasia is a rare, but serious condition in which the motility of the lower oesophageal sphincter (LES) is inhibited. This disorder of idiopathic aetiology complicates the peristaltic function and relaxation of the LES that may cause symptoms such as dysphagia, epigastric pain, and regurgitation of an obstructed food. The following case describes achalasia in a patient 5 years following a laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). The patient underwent a laparoscopic Heller myotomy without a fundoplication. Although achalasia seems to be a rare occurrence in obese patients, this is the third case documented in a patient who previously had an RYGB. The role of performing a fundoplication in these patients remains to be elucidated. PMID:26195880

  5. Modifiable diarrhoea risk factors in Egyptian children aged <5 years.

    PubMed

    Mansour, A M; Mohammady, H El; Shabrawi, M El; Shabaan, S Y; Zekri, M Abou; Nassar, M; Salem, M E; Mostafa, M; Riddle, M S; Klena, J D; Messih, I A Abdel; Levin, S; Young, S Y N

    2013-12-01

    By conducting a case-control study in two university hospitals, we explored the association between modifiable risk behaviours and diarrhoea. Children aged <5 years attending outpatient clinics for diarrhoea were matched by age and sex with controls. Data were collected on family demographics, socioeconomic indicators, and risk behaviour practices. Two rectal swabs and a stool specimen were collected from cases and controls. Samples were cultured for bacterial pathogens using standard techniques and tested by ELISA to detect rotavirus and Cryptosporidium spp. Four hundred cases and controls were enrolled between 2007 and 2009. The strongest independent risk factors for diarrhoea were: presence of another household member with diarrhoea [matched odds ratio (mOR) 4.9, 95% CI 2.8-8.4] in the week preceding the survey, introduction to a new kind of food (mOR 3, 95% CI 1.7-5.4), and the child being cared for outside home (mOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.2). While these risk factors are not identifiable, in some age groups more easily modifiable risk factors were identified including: having no soap for handwashing (mOR 6.3, 95% CI 1.2-33.9) for children aged 7-12 months, and pacifier use (mOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0-3.5) in children aged 0-6 months. In total, the findings of this study suggest that community-based interventions to improve practices related to sanitation and hygiene, handwashing and food could be utilized to reduce the burden of diarrhoea in Egyptian children aged <5 years. PMID:23433452

  6. Modifiable diarrhoea risk factors in Egyptian children aged <5 years.

    PubMed

    Mansour, A M; Mohammady, H El; Shabrawi, M El; Shabaan, S Y; Zekri, M Abou; Nassar, M; Salem, M E; Mostafa, M; Riddle, M S; Klena, J D; Messih, I A Abdel; Levin, S; Young, S Y N

    2013-12-01

    By conducting a case-control study in two university hospitals, we explored the association between modifiable risk behaviours and diarrhoea. Children aged <5 years attending outpatient clinics for diarrhoea were matched by age and sex with controls. Data were collected on family demographics, socioeconomic indicators, and risk behaviour practices. Two rectal swabs and a stool specimen were collected from cases and controls. Samples were cultured for bacterial pathogens using standard techniques and tested by ELISA to detect rotavirus and Cryptosporidium spp. Four hundred cases and controls were enrolled between 2007 and 2009. The strongest independent risk factors for diarrhoea were: presence of another household member with diarrhoea [matched odds ratio (mOR) 4.9, 95% CI 2.8-8.4] in the week preceding the survey, introduction to a new kind of food (mOR 3, 95% CI 1.7-5.4), and the child being cared for outside home (mOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.2). While these risk factors are not identifiable, in some age groups more easily modifiable risk factors were identified including: having no soap for handwashing (mOR 6.3, 95% CI 1.2-33.9) for children aged 7-12 months, and pacifier use (mOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0-3.5) in children aged 0-6 months. In total, the findings of this study suggest that community-based interventions to improve practices related to sanitation and hygiene, handwashing and food could be utilized to reduce the burden of diarrhoea in Egyptian children aged <5 years.

  7. Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

    PubMed Central

    Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

  8. SIRT6 minor allele genotype is associated with >5-year decrease in lifespan in an aged cohort.

    PubMed

    TenNapel, Mindi J; Lynch, Charles F; Burns, Trudy L; Wallace, Robert; Smith, Brian J; Button, Anna; Domann, Frederick E

    2014-01-01

    Aging is a natural process involving complex interplay between environment, metabolism, and genes. Sirtuin genes and their downstream targets have been associated with lifespan in numerous organisms from nematodes to humans. Several target proteins of the sirtuin genes are key sensors and/or effectors of oxidative stress pathways including FOXO3, SOD3, and AKT1. To examine the relationship between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) at candidate genes in these pathways and human lifespan, we performed a molecular epidemiologic study of an elderly cohort (≥65 years old.). Using age at death as a continuous outcome variable and assuming a co-dominant genetic model within the framework of multi-variable linear regression analysis, the genotype-specific adjusted mean age at death was estimated for individual SNP genotypes while controlling for age-related risk factors including smoking, body mass index, alcohol consumption and co-morbidity. Significant associations were detected between human lifespan and SNPs in genes SIRT3, SIRT5, SIRT6, FOXO3 and SOD3. Individuals with either the CC or CT genotype at rs107251 within SIRT6 displayed >5-year mean survival advantages compared to the TT genotype (5.5 and 5.9 years, respectively; q-value  = 0.012). Other SNPs revealed genotype-specific mean survival advantages ranging from 0.5 to 1.6 years. Gender also modified the effect of SNPs in SIRT3, SIRT5 and AKT1 on lifespan. Our novel findings highlight the impact of sirtuins and sirtuin-related genotypes on lifespan, the importance of evaluating gender and the advantage of using age as a continuous variable in analyses to report mean age at death. PMID:25541994

  9. HIV-Positive–to–HIV-Positive Kidney Transplantation — Results at 3 to 5 Years

    PubMed Central

    Muller, Elmi; Barday, Zunaid; Mendelson, Marc; Kahn, Delawir

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND The outcome of kidney transplantation in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–positive patients who receive organs from HIV-negative donors has been reported to be similar to the outcome in HIV-negative recipients. We report the outcomes at 3 to 5 years in HIV-positive patients who received kidneys from HIV-positive deceased donors. METHODS We conducted a prospective, nonrandomized study of kidney transplantation in HIV-infected patients who had a CD4 T-cell count of 200 per cubic millimeter or higher and an undetectable plasma HIV RNA level. All the patients were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). The patients received kidneys from deceased donors who tested positive for HIV with the use of fourth-generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at the time of referral. All the donors either had received no ART previously or had received only first-line ART. RESULTS From September 2008 through February 2014, a total of 27 HIV-positive patients underwent kidney transplantation. Survivors were followed for a median of 2.4 years. The rate of survival among the patients was 84% at 1 year, 84% at 3 years, and 74% at 5 years. The corresponding rates of graft survival were 93%, 84%, and 84%. (If a patient died with a functioning graft, the calculation was performed as if the graft had survived.) Rejection rates were 8% at 1 year and 22% at 3 years. HIV infection remained well controlled, with undetectable virus in blood after the transplantation. CONCLUSIONS Kidney transplantation from an HIV-positive donor appears to be an additional treatment option for HIV-infected patients requiring renal-replacement therapy. PMID:25671253

  10. Hodgkin's disease. A clinico-pathological study of 250 cases with a 5-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Newton, K A; Mackenzie, D H; Spittle, M F; Mikolajczuk, A

    1973-01-01

    Two hundred and fifty cases of histologically proven Hodgkin's disease have been reviewed. These cases were classified according to the Rye Conference histological classification (Lukes et al., 1966a) and according to the Cross classification (Cross, 1969). Overall, both classifications were reasonably effective in predicting prognosis but that of Cross with its seven sub-groups proved more difficult to use than the simpler Rye classification. In all cases the follow-up period exceeded 5 years. A study was made of the influence of clinical symptoms on survival with particular reference to night sweats, fever, pruritus, anorexia, lassitude, weight loss, haematological abnormalities and splenic enlargement. The presence of these abnormalities adversely affected prognosis. The spread of the disease from one group of nodes to the next was also documented. Considering all cases the 5-year survival was 54%. The 5-year survivals according to histological type were: lymphocytic predominance 69%, nodular sclerosis 57%, mixed cellularity 41%, lymphocytic depletion 40%. The 10-year survival was 23% which, when corrected by the actuarial method (Berkson and Gage, 1950), rose to 36%. The importance of symptomatology as well as histological grading in the prognosis of Hodgkin's disease is confirmed.

  11. Donor Age and Corneal Endothelial Cell Loss 5 Years after Successful Corneal Transplantation: Specular Microscopy Ancillary Study Results

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Objective To determine whether endothelial cell loss 5 years after successful corneal transplantation is related to the age of the donor. Design Multicenter, prospective, double-masked clinical trial. Participants Three hundred forty-seven subjects participating in the Cornea Donor Study who had not experienced graft failure 5 years after corneal transplantation for a moderate-risk condition (principally Fuchs’ dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema). Testing Specular microscopic images of donor corneas obtained before surgery and postoperatively at 6 months, 12 months, and then annually through 5 years were submitted to a central reading center to measure endothelial cell density (ECD). Main Outcome Measure Endothelial cell density at 5 years. Results At 5 years, there was a substantial decrease in ECD from baseline for all donor ages. Subjects who received a cornea from a donor 12 to 65 years old experienced a median cell loss of 69% in the study eye, resulting in a 5-year median ECD of 824 cells/mm2 (interquartile range, 613–1342), whereas subjects who received a cornea from a donor 66 to 75 years old experienced a cell loss of 75%, resulting in a median 5-year ECD of 654 cells/mm2 (interquartile range, 538–986) (P [adjusted for baseline ECD] = 0.04). Statistically, there was a weak negative association between ECD and donor age analyzed as a continuous variable (r [adjusted for baseline ECD] = −0.19; 95% confidence interval, −0.29 to −0.08). Conclusions Endothelial cell loss is substantial in the 5 years after corneal transplantation. There is a slight association between cell loss and donor age. This finding emphasizes the importance of longer-term follow-up of this cohort to determine if this relationship affects graft survival. PMID:18387408

  12. Malpractice and radiologists, update 1986: an 11. 5-year perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Berlin, L.

    1986-12-01

    All medical malpractice lawsuits filed in Cook County, IL, from January 1, 1980, through June 30, 1986, were reviewed and compared with similar data for the period of January 1, 1975, through December 30, 1979. A total of 11,203 suits were filed during the 11.5-year period; of these, 1391 (12%) were radiology related. The latter were categorized into six groups. The largest was missed radiologic diagnoses, which accounted for 40% of the total. The remaining groups included complications, 19%; failure to order, 17%; radiation therapy, 11%; slip and fall, 5%; and miscellaneous, 8%. Over the 1975-1986 period, the rise in the number of suits alleging radiologic misses outpaced all other groups. Although the most common type of miss continues to involve fractures, the frequency of missed carcinomas has grown at a disproportionately faster rate. Misses specifically involving CT, nuclear medicine, and sonography also are becoming more prevalent. Radiographic misses continue to occur at an average rate of 30%, with little hope of improvement. Methods to combat the rising number of malpractice suits are discussed. It is concluded that although programs to educate radiologists on risk management should continue, the ultimate solution may be a more enlightened public attitude as to what actually constitutes malpractice, and institution of tort reform measures by federal and state legislatures.

  13. A comparison of conventional capture versus PIT reader techniques for estimating survival and capture probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellison, L.E.; O'Shea, T.J.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Pearce, R.D.; Bowen, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    We compared conventional capture (primarily mist nets and harp traps) and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging techniques for estimating capture and survival probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) roosting in buildings in Fort Collins, Colorado. A total of 987 female adult and juvenile bats were captured and marked by subdermal injection of PIT tags during the summers of 2001-2005 at five maternity colonies in buildings. Openings to roosts were equipped with PIT hoop-style readers, and exit and entry of bats were passively monitored on a daily basis throughout the summers of 2002-2005. PIT readers 'recaptured' adult and juvenile females more often than conventional capture events at each roost. Estimates of annual capture probabilities for all five colonies were on average twice as high when estimated from PIT reader data (P?? = 0.93-1.00) than when derived from conventional techniques (P?? = 0.26-0.66), and as a consequence annual survival estimates were more precisely estimated when using PIT reader encounters. Short-term, daily capture estimates were also higher using PIT readers than conventional captures. We discuss the advantages and limitations of using PIT tags and passive encounters with hoop readers vs. conventional capture techniques for estimating these vital parameters in big brown bats. ?? Museum and Institute of Zoology PAS.

  14. Working with Workflows: Highlights from 5 years Building Scientific Workflows

    SciTech Connect

    Critchlow, Terence J.; Altintas, Ilkay; Chin, George; Crawl, Daniel; Iyer, H.; Khan, Ayla; Klasky, S.; Koehler, Sven; Ludaescher, Bertram T.; Mouallem, Pierre; Nagappan, Mie; Podhorszki, Norbert; Shoshani, Arie; Silva, C.; Tchoua, Roselynne; Vouk, M.

    2011-07-30

    In 2006, the SciDAC Scientific Data Management (SDM) Center proposed to continue its work deploying leading edge data management and analysis capabilities to scientific applications. One of three thrust areas within the proposed center was focused on Scientific Process Automation (SPA) using workflow technology. As a founding member of the Kepler consortium [LAB+09], the SDM Center team was well positioned to begin deploying workflows immediately. We were also keenly aware of some of the deficiencies in Kepler when applied to high performance computing workflows, which allowed us to focus our research and development efforts on critical new capabilities which were ultimately integrated into the Kepler open source distribution, benefiting the entire community. Significant work was required to ensure Kepler was capable of supporting large-scale production runs for SciDAC applications. Our work on generic actors and templates have improved the portability of workflows across machines and provided a higher level of abstraction for workflow developers. Fault tolerance and provenance tracking were obvious areas for improvement within Kepler given the longevity and complexity of our target workflows. To monitor workflow execution, we developed and deployed a web-based dashboard. We then generalized this interface and released it so it could be deployed at other locations. Outreach has always been a primary focus of our work and we had many successful deployments across a number of scientific domains while continually publishing and presenting our work. This short paper describes our most significant accomplishments over the past 5 years. Additional information about the SDM Center can be found in the companion paper: The Scientific Data Management Center: Available Technologies and Highlights.

  15. Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture-recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network.

    PubMed

    Letcher, Benjamin H; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D; Nislow, Keith H; Coombs, Jason A; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B; Whiteley, Andrew R; O'Donnell, Matthew J; Dubreuil, Todd L

    2015-03-01

    Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses. We developed an integrated capture-recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival. We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature. Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative

  16. First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis.

    PubMed

    Carroll, E L; Fewster, R M; Childerhouse, S J; Patenaude, N J; Boren, L; Baker, C S

    2016-01-01

    Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6-12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species' primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995-1998 and 2006-2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2-8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time. PMID:26751689

  17. First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis.

    PubMed

    Carroll, E L; Fewster, R M; Childerhouse, S J; Patenaude, N J; Boren, L; Baker, C S

    2016-01-01

    Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6-12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species' primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995-1998 and 2006-2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2-8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time.

  18. First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, E. L.; Fewster, R. M.; Childerhouse, S. J.; Patenaude, N. J.; Boren, L.; Baker, C. S.

    2016-01-01

    Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6–12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species’ primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995–1998 and 2006–2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2–8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time. PMID:26751689

  19. The Influence of Tag Presence on the Mortality of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Exposed to Simulated Hydroturbine Passage: Implications for Survival Estimates and Management of Hydroelectric Facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Carlson, Thomas J.; Brown, Richard S.; Stephenson, John R.; Pflugrath, Brett D.; Colotelo, Alison HA; Gingerich, Andrew J.; Benjamin, Piper L.; Langeslay, Mike; Ahmann, Martin L.; Johnson, Robert L.; Skalski, John R.; Seaburg, Adam; Townsend, Richard L.

    2012-05-01

    Each year, millions of fish have telemetry tags (acoustic, radio, inductive) surgically implanted to assess their passage and survival through hydropower facilities. One route of passage of particular concern is through hydro turbines, in which fish may be exposed to a range of potential injuries, including barotraumas from rapid decompression. The change in pressure from acclimation to exposure (nadir) has been found to be an important factor in predicting the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon undergoing rapid decompression associated with simulated turbine passage. The presence of telemetry tags has also been shown to influence the likelihood of injury and mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon. This research investigated the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon carrying telemetry tags and exposed to a range of simulated turbine passage. Several factors were examined as predictors of mortal injury for fish undergoing rapid decompression, and the ratio of pressure change and tag burden were determined to be the most predictive factors. As the ratio of pressure change and tag burden increase, the likelihood of mortal injury also increases. The results of this study suggest that previous survival estimates of juvenile Chinook salmon passing through hydro turbines may have been biased due to the presence of telemetry tags, and this has direct implications to the management of hydroelectric facilities. Realistic examples indicate how the bias in turbine passage survival estimates could be 20% or higher, depending on the mass of the implanted tags and the ratio of acclimation to exposure pressures. Bias would increase as the tag burden and pressure ratio increase, and have direct implications on survival estimates. It is recommended that future survival studies use the smallest telemetry tags possible to minimize the potential bias that may be associated with carrying the tag.

  20. Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

    PubMed

    Battaile, Brian C; Trites, Andrew W

    2013-01-01

    We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL) method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864); northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758); and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776))--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts. PMID:24324541

  1. The risks and benefits of long-term use of hydroxyurea in sickle cell anemia: A 17.5 year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Steinberg, Martin H; McCarthy, William F; Castro, Oswaldo; Ballas, Samir K; Armstrong, F Danny; Smith, Wally; Ataga, Kenneth; Swerdlow, Paul; Kutlar, Abdullah; DeCastro, Laura; Waclawiw, Myron A

    2010-06-01

    A randomized, controlled clinical trial established the efficacy and safety of short-term use of hydroxyurea in adult sickle cell anemia. To examine the risks and benefits of long-term hydroxyurea usage, patients in this trial were followed for 17.5 years during which they could start or stop hydroxyurea. The purpose of this follow-up was to search for adverse outcomes and estimate mortality. For each outcome and for mortality, exact 95% confidence intervals were calculated, or tests were conducted at alpha = 0.05 level (P-value <0.05 for statistical significance). Although the death rate in the overall study cohort was high (43.1%; 4.4 per 100 person-years), mortality was reduced in individuals with long-term exposure to hydroxyurea. Survival curves demonstrated a significant reduction in deaths with long-term exposure. Twenty-four percent of deaths were due to pulmonary complications; 87.1% occurred in patients who never took hydroxyurea or took it for <5 years. Stroke, organ dysfunction, infection, and malignancy were similar in all groups. Our results, while no longer the product of a randomized study because of the ethical concerns of withholding an efficacious treatment, suggest that long-term use of hydroxyurea is safe and might decrease mortality. PMID:20513116

  2. A 5-year experience with an elective scholarly concentrations program

    PubMed Central

    George, Paul; Green, Emily P.; Park, Yoon S.; Gruppuso, Philip A.

    2015-01-01

    Problem Programs that encourage scholarly activities beyond the core curriculum and traditional biomedical research are now commonplace among US medical schools. Few studies have generated outcome data for these programs. The goal of the present study was to address this gap. Intervention The Scholarly Concentration (SC) Program, established in 2006 at the Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, is a 4-year elective program that not only encourages students to pursue scholarly work that may include traditional biomedical research but also seeks to broaden students’ focus to include less traditional areas. We compared characteristics and academic performance of SC students and non-SC students for the graduating classes of 2010–2014. Context Approximately one-third of our students opt to complete an SC during their 4-year undergraduate medical education. Because this program is additional to the regular MD curriculum, we sought to investigate whether SC students sustained the academic achievement of non-SC students while at the same time producing scholarly work as part of the program. Outcome Over 5 years, 35% of students elected to enter the program and approximately 81% of these students completed the program. The parameters that were similar for both SC and non-SC students were age at matriculation, admission route, proportion of undergraduate science majors, and number of undergraduate science courses. Most academic indicators, including United States Medical Licensing Examinations scores, were similar for the two groups; however, SC students achieved more honors in the six core clerkships and were more likely to be inducted into the medical school's two honor societies. Residency specialties selected by graduates in the two groups were similar. SC students published an average of 1.3 peer-reviewed manuscripts per student, higher than the 0.8 manuscripts per non-SC student (p=0.013). Conclusions An elective, interdisciplinary scholarly program with

  3. Stereotactic body radiation therapy for nonmetastatic lung cancer: An analysis of 75 patients treated over 5 years

    SciTech Connect

    Beitler, Jonathan J. . E-mail: jbeitler92@alumni.gsb.columbia.edu; Badine, Edgard A.; El-Sayah, Danny; Makara, Denise; Friscia, Phillip; Silverman, Phillip; Terjanian, Terenig

    2006-05-01

    Purpose: Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may not be medically operable even in patients with surgically resectable disease. For patients who either refuse surgery or are medically inoperable, radiation therapy may be the best therapeutic choice. Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) employs external fixation and hypofractionation to deliver a high dose per fraction of radiation to a small target volume. Methods and Materials: Retrospective review of 75 patients treated over 5 years at Staten Island University Hospital as definitive treatment for NSCLC or presumed NSCLC. Patients received a median of 5 fractions of 8 Gy per fraction over 27 days. Results: Overall 1-, 2-, and 5-year actuarial survivals were 63%, 45%, and 17%. Patients with a gross tumor volume (GTV) less than 65 cm{sup 3} enjoyed a longer median survival (25.7 vs. 9.9 months, p < 0.003), and at 5 years, the actuarial survival for the patients with GTVs less than 65 cm{sup 3} was 24% vs. 0% for those with GTVs larger than 65 cm{sup 3}. Conclusions: Stereotactic body radiation therapy as delivered was ineffective for curing the patients whose GTVs were larger than 65 cm{sup 3}. SBRT was promising for those with GTVs less than 65 cm{sup 3}.

  4. A multilevel excess hazard model to estimate net survival on hierarchical data allowing for non-linear and non-proportional effects of covariates.

    PubMed

    Charvat, Hadrien; Remontet, Laurent; Bossard, Nadine; Roche, Laurent; Dejardin, Olivier; Rachet, Bernard; Launoy, Guy; Belot, Aurélien

    2016-08-15

    The excess hazard regression model is an approach developed for the analysis of cancer registry data to estimate net survival, that is, the survival of cancer patients that would be observed if cancer was the only cause of death. Cancer registry data typically possess a hierarchical structure: individuals from the same geographical unit share common characteristics such as proximity to a large hospital that may influence access to and quality of health care, so that their survival times might be correlated. As a consequence, correct statistical inference regarding the estimation of net survival and the effect of covariates should take this hierarchical structure into account. It becomes particularly important as many studies in cancer epidemiology aim at studying the effect on the excess mortality hazard of variables, such as deprivation indexes, often available only at the ecological level rather than at the individual level. We developed here an approach to fit a flexible excess hazard model including a random effect to describe the unobserved heterogeneity existing between different clusters of individuals, and with the possibility to estimate non-linear and time-dependent effects of covariates. We demonstrated the overall good performance of the proposed approach in a simulation study that assessed the impact on parameter estimates of the number of clusters, their size and their level of unbalance. We then used this multilevel model to describe the effect of a deprivation index defined at the geographical level on the excess mortality hazard of patients diagnosed with cancer of the oral cavity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. A multilevel excess hazard model to estimate net survival on hierarchical data allowing for non-linear and non-proportional effects of covariates.

    PubMed

    Charvat, Hadrien; Remontet, Laurent; Bossard, Nadine; Roche, Laurent; Dejardin, Olivier; Rachet, Bernard; Launoy, Guy; Belot, Aurélien

    2016-08-15

    The excess hazard regression model is an approach developed for the analysis of cancer registry data to estimate net survival, that is, the survival of cancer patients that would be observed if cancer was the only cause of death. Cancer registry data typically possess a hierarchical structure: individuals from the same geographical unit share common characteristics such as proximity to a large hospital that may influence access to and quality of health care, so that their survival times might be correlated. As a consequence, correct statistical inference regarding the estimation of net survival and the effect of covariates should take this hierarchical structure into account. It becomes particularly important as many studies in cancer epidemiology aim at studying the effect on the excess mortality hazard of variables, such as deprivation indexes, often available only at the ecological level rather than at the individual level. We developed here an approach to fit a flexible excess hazard model including a random effect to describe the unobserved heterogeneity existing between different clusters of individuals, and with the possibility to estimate non-linear and time-dependent effects of covariates. We demonstrated the overall good performance of the proposed approach in a simulation study that assessed the impact on parameter estimates of the number of clusters, their size and their level of unbalance. We then used this multilevel model to describe the effect of a deprivation index defined at the geographical level on the excess mortality hazard of patients diagnosed with cancer of the oral cavity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26924122

  6. A field evaluation of an external and neutrally buoyant acoustic transmitter for juvenile salmon: implications for estimating hydroturbine passage survival.

    PubMed

    Brown, Richard S; Deng, Z Daniel; Cook, Katrina V; Pflugrath, Brett D; Li, Xinya; Fu, Tao; Martinez, Jayson J; Li, Huidong; Trumbo, Bradly A; Ahmann, Martin L; Seaburg, Adam G

    2013-01-01

    Turbine-passed fish are exposed to rapid decreases in pressure which can cause barotrauma. The presence of an implanted telemetry tag increases the likelihood of injury or death from exposure to pressure changes, thus potentially biasing studies evaluating survival of turbine-passed fish. Therefore, a neutrally buoyant externally attached tag was developed to eliminate this bias in turbine passage studies. This new tag was designed not to add excess mass in water or take up space in the coelom, having an effective tag burden of zero with the goal of reducing pressure related biases to turbine survival studies. To determine if this new tag affects fish performance or susceptibility to predation, it was evaluated in the field relative to internally implanted acoustic transmitters (JSATS; Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System) used widely for survival studies of juvenile salmonids. Survival and travel time through the study reach was compared between fish with either tag type in an area of high predation in the Snake and Columbia rivers, Washington. An additional group of fish affixed with neutrally-buoyant dummy external tags were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and recovered further downstream to assess external tag retention and injury. There were no significant differences in survival to the first detection site, 12 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of release. Travel times were also similar between groups. Conversely, externally-tagged fish had reduced survival (or elevated tag loss) to the second detection site, 65 rkm downstream. In addition, the retention study revealed that tag loss was first observed in fish recaptured approximately 9 days after release. Results suggest that this new tag may be viable for short term (<8 days) single-dam turbine-passage studies and under these situations, may alleviate the turbine passage-related bias encountered when using internal tags, however further research is needed to confirm this. PMID

  7. A field evaluation of an external and neutrally buoyant acoustic transmitter for juvenile salmon: implications for estimating hydroturbine passage survival.

    PubMed

    Brown, Richard S; Deng, Z Daniel; Cook, Katrina V; Pflugrath, Brett D; Li, Xinya; Fu, Tao; Martinez, Jayson J; Li, Huidong; Trumbo, Bradly A; Ahmann, Martin L; Seaburg, Adam G

    2013-01-01

    Turbine-passed fish are exposed to rapid decreases in pressure which can cause barotrauma. The presence of an implanted telemetry tag increases the likelihood of injury or death from exposure to pressure changes, thus potentially biasing studies evaluating survival of turbine-passed fish. Therefore, a neutrally buoyant externally attached tag was developed to eliminate this bias in turbine passage studies. This new tag was designed not to add excess mass in water or take up space in the coelom, having an effective tag burden of zero with the goal of reducing pressure related biases to turbine survival studies. To determine if this new tag affects fish performance or susceptibility to predation, it was evaluated in the field relative to internally implanted acoustic transmitters (JSATS; Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System) used widely for survival studies of juvenile salmonids. Survival and travel time through the study reach was compared between fish with either tag type in an area of high predation in the Snake and Columbia rivers, Washington. An additional group of fish affixed with neutrally-buoyant dummy external tags were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and recovered further downstream to assess external tag retention and injury. There were no significant differences in survival to the first detection site, 12 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of release. Travel times were also similar between groups. Conversely, externally-tagged fish had reduced survival (or elevated tag loss) to the second detection site, 65 rkm downstream. In addition, the retention study revealed that tag loss was first observed in fish recaptured approximately 9 days after release. Results suggest that this new tag may be viable for short term (<8 days) single-dam turbine-passage studies and under these situations, may alleviate the turbine passage-related bias encountered when using internal tags, however further research is needed to confirm this.

  8. A Field Evaluation of an External and Neutrally Buoyant Acoustic Transmitter for Juvenile Salmon: Implications for Estimating Hydroturbine Passage Survival

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Richard S.; Deng, Z. Daniel; Cook, Katrina V.; Pflugrath, Brett D.; Li, Xinya; Fu, Tao; Martinez, Jayson J.; Li, Huidong; Trumbo, Bradly A.; Ahmann, Martin L.; Seaburg, Adam G.

    2013-01-01

    Turbine-passed fish are exposed to rapid decreases in pressure which can cause barotrauma. The presence of an implanted telemetry tag increases the likelihood of injury or death from exposure to pressure changes, thus potentially biasing studies evaluating survival of turbine-passed fish. Therefore, a neutrally buoyant externally attached tag was developed to eliminate this bias in turbine passage studies. This new tag was designed not to add excess mass in water or take up space in the coelom, having an effective tag burden of zero with the goal of reducing pressure related biases to turbine survival studies. To determine if this new tag affects fish performance or susceptibility to predation, it was evaluated in the field relative to internally implanted acoustic transmitters (JSATS; Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System) used widely for survival studies of juvenile salmonids. Survival and travel time through the study reach was compared between fish with either tag type in an area of high predation in the Snake and Columbia rivers, Washington. An additional group of fish affixed with neutrally-buoyant dummy external tags were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and recovered further downstream to assess external tag retention and injury. There were no significant differences in survival to the first detection site, 12 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of release. Travel times were also similar between groups. Conversely, externally-tagged fish had reduced survival (or elevated tag loss) to the second detection site, 65 rkm downstream. In addition, the retention study revealed that tag loss was first observed in fish recaptured approximately 9 days after release. Results suggest that this new tag may be viable for short term (<8 days) single-dam turbine-passage studies and under these situations, may alleviate the turbine passage-related bias encountered when using internal tags, however further research is needed to confirm this. PMID

  9. 24 CFR 903.6 - What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... in the 5-Year Plan? 903.6 Section 903.6 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS RELATING TO HOUSING... must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan? (a) A PHA must include in its 5-Year Plan a statement of: (1... domestic violence, dating violence, sexual assault, or stalking. (b) After submitting its first 5-Year...

  10. 24 CFR 903.6 - What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... in the 5-Year Plan? 903.6 Section 903.6 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS RELATING TO HOUSING... must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan? (a) A PHA must include in its 5-Year Plan a statement of: (1... domestic violence, dating violence, sexual assault, or stalking. (b) After submitting its first 5-Year...

  11. 24 CFR 903.6 - What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... in the 5-Year Plan? 903.6 Section 903.6 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS RELATING TO HOUSING... must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan? (a) A PHA must include in its 5-Year Plan a statement of: (1... domestic violence, dating violence, sexual assault, or stalking. (b) After submitting its first 5-Year...

  12. Comparison of Cox's and relative survival models when estimating the effects of prognostic factors on disease-specific mortality: a simulation study under proportional excess hazards.

    PubMed

    Le Teuff, Gwenaël; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Bolard, Philippe; Quantin, Catherine

    2005-12-30

    In many prognostic studies focusing on mortality of persons affected by a particular disease, the cause of death of individual patients is not recorded. In such situations, the conventional survival analytical methods, such as the Cox's proportional hazards regression model, do not allow to discriminate the effects of prognostic factors on disease-specific mortality from their effects on all-causes mortality. In the last decade, the relative survival approach has been proposed to deal with the analyses involving population-based cancer registries, where the problem of missing information on the cause of death is very common. However, some questions regarding the ability of the relative survival methods to accurately discriminate between the two sources of mortality remain open. In order to systematically assess the performance of the relative survival model proposed by Esteve et al., and to quantify its potential advantages over the Cox's model analyses, we carried out a series of simulation experiments, based on the population-based colon cancer registry in the French region of Burgundy. Simulations showed a systematic bias induced by the 'crude' conventional Cox's model analyses when individual causes of death are unknown. In simulations where only about 10 per cent of patients died of causes other than colon cancer, the Cox's model over-estimated the effects of male gender and oldest age category by about 17 and 13 per cent, respectively, with the coverage rate of the 95 per cent CI for the latter estimate as low as 65 per cent. In contrast, the effect of higher cancer stages was under-estimated by 8-28 per cent. In contrast to crude survival, relative survival model largely reduced such problems and handled well even such challenging tasks as separating the opposite effects of the same variable on cancer-related versus other-causes mortality. Specifically, in all the cases discussed above, the relative bias in the estimates from the Esteve et al.'s model was

  13. Prevalence of Overweight and Risk of Overweight among 3-to 5-Year-Old Chicago Children, 2002-2003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, Maryann; Meleedy-Rey, Patricia; Christoffel, Katherine Kaufer; Longjohn, Matt; Garcia, Myrna P.; Ashlaw, Catherine

    2006-01-01

    This article reports the first estimates of overweight prevalence in Chicago children entering school (aged 3-5 years). Chicago data are compared with those from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS). Data were from 2 separate convenience samples of children aged 3-5 years…

  14. Estimating incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and their confidence intervals with different terminating events for survival time and costs.

    PubMed

    Chen, Shuai; Zhao, Hongwei

    2013-07-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is an important component of the economic evaluation of new treatment options. In many clinical and observational studies of costs, censored data pose challenges to the CEA. We consider a special situation where the terminating events for the survival time and costs are different. Traditional methods for statistical inference offer no means for dealing with censored data in these circumstances. To address this gap, we propose a new method for deriving the confidence interval for the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The simulation studies and real data example show that our method performs very well for some practical settings, revealing a great potential for application to actual settings in which terminating events for the survival time and costs differ.

  15. Traditional endodontic surgery versus modern technique: a 5-year controlled clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Tortorici, Silvia; Difalco, Paolo; Caradonna, Luigi; Tetè, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we compared outcomes of traditional apicoectomy versus modern apicoectomy, by means of a controlled clinical trial with a 5-year follow-up. The study investigated 938 teeth in 843 patients. On the basis of the procedure performed, the teeth were grouped in 3 groups. Differences between the groups were the method of osteotomy (type of instruments used), type of preparation of retrograde cavity (different apicoectomy angles and instruments used for root-end preparation), and root-end filling material used (gray mineral trioxide aggregate or silver amalgam). Outcome (tooth healing) was estimated after 1 and 5 years, postoperatively. Clinical success rates after 1 year were 67% (306 teeth), 90% (186 teeth), and 94% (256 teeth) according to traditional apicoectomy (group 1), modern microsurgical apicoectomy using burns for osteotomy (group 2) or using piezo-osteotomy (group 3), respectively. After 1 year, group comparison results were statistically significant (P < 0.0001). Linear trend test was also statistically significant (P < 0.0001), pointing out larger healing from group 1 to group 3. After 5 years, teeth were classified into 2 groups on the basis of root-end filling material used. Clinical success was 90.8% (197 teeth) in the silver amalgam group versus 96% (309 teeth) in the mineral trioxide aggregate group (P < 0.00214). Multiple logistic regression analysis found that surgical technique was independently associated to tooth healing. In conclusion, modern apicoectomy resulted in a probability of success more than 5 times higher (odds ratio, 5.20 [95% confidence interval, 3.94-6.92]; P < 0.001) compared with the traditional technique. PMID:24469371

  16. Survival of European patients with central nervous system tumors.

    PubMed

    Sant, Milena; Minicozzi, Pamela; Lagorio, Susanna; Børge Johannesen, Tom; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Francisci, Silvia

    2012-07-01

    We present estimates of population-based 5-year relative survival for adult Europeans diagnosed with central nervous system tumors, by morphology (14 categories based on cell lineage and malignancy grade), sex, age at diagnosis and region (UK and Ireland, Northern, Central, Eastern and Southern Europe) for the most recent period with available data (2000-2002). Sources were 39 EUROCARE cancer registries with continuous data from 1996 to 2002. Survival time trends (1988 to 2002) were estimated from 24 cancer registries with continuous data from 1988. Overall 5-year relative survival was 85.0% for benign, 19.9% for malignant tumors. Benign tumor survival ranged from 90.6% (Northern Europe) to 77.4% (UK and Ireland); for malignant tumors the range was 25.1% (Northern Europe) to 15.6% (UK and Ireland). Survival decreased with age at diagnosis and was slightly better for women (malignant tumors only). For glial tumors, survival varied from 83.5% (ependymoma and choroid plexus) to 2.7% (glioblastoma); and for non-glioma tumors from 96.5% (neurinoma) to 44.9% (primitive neuroectoderm tumor/medulloblastoma). Survival differences between regions narrowed after adjustment for morphology and age, and were mainly attributable to differences in morphology mix; however UK and Ireland and Eastern Europe patients still had 40% and 30% higher excess risk of death, respectively, than Northern Europe patients (reference). Survival for benign tumors increased from 69.3% (1988-1990) to 77.1% (2000-2002); but survival for malignant tumors did not improve indicating no useful advances in treatment over the 14-year study period, notwithstanding major improvement in the diagnosis and treatment of other solid cancers.

  17. Separable Sustained and Selective Attention Factors Are Apparent in 5-Year-Old Children

    PubMed Central

    Underbjerg, Mette; George, Melanie S.; Thorsen, Poul; Kesmodel, Ulrik S.; Mortensen, Erik L.; Manly, Tom

    2013-01-01

    In adults and older children, evidence consistent with relative separation between selective and sustained attention, superimposed upon generally positive inter-test correlations, has been reported. Here we examine whether this pattern is detectable in 5-year-old children from the healthy population. A new test battery (TEA-ChJ) was adapted from measures previously used with adults and older children and administered to 172 5-year-olds. Test-retest reliability was assessed in 60 children. Ninety-eight percent of the children managed to complete all measures. Discrimination of visual and auditory stimuli were good. In a factor analysis, the two TEA-ChJ selective attention tasks (one visual, one auditory) loaded onto a common factor and diverged from the two sustained attention tasks (one auditory, one motor), which shared a common loading on the second factor. This pattern, which suggests that the tests are indeed sensitive to underlying attentional capacities, was supported by the relationships between the TEA-ChJ factors and Test of Everyday Attention for Children subtests in the older children in the sample. It is possible to gain convincing performance-based estimates of attention at the age of 5 with the results reflecting a similar factor structure to that obtained in older children and adults. The results are discussed in light of contemporary models of attention function. Given the potential advantages of early intervention for attention difficulties, the findings are of clinical as well as theoretical interest. PMID:24376591

  18. Prenatal Airborne Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Exposure and Child IQ at Age 5 Years

    PubMed Central

    Perera, Frederica P.; Li, Zhigang; Whyatt, Robin; Hoepner, Lori; Wang, Shuang; Camann, David; Rauh, Virginia

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE This study evaluated the relationship between prenatal exposure to airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and child intelligence. METHODS Children of nonsmoking black or Dominican-American women residing in New York City were monitored from in utero to 5 years of age, with determination of prenatal PAH exposure through personal air monitoring for the mothers during pregnancy. At 5 years of age, intelligence was assessed for 249 children by using the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence-Revised. Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate and to test the associations between prenatal PAH exposure and IQ. RESULTS After adjustment for maternal intelligence, quality of the home caretaking environment, environmental tobacco smoke exposure, and other potentially confounding factors, high PAH levels (above the median of 2.26 ng/m3) were inversely associated with full-scale IQ (P = .007) and verbal IQ (P = .003) scores. Children in the high-exposure group had full-scale and verbal IQ scores that were 4.31 and 4.67 points lower, respectively, than those of less-exposed children (≤2.26 ng/m3). The associations between logarithmically transformed, continuous, PAH levels and these IQ measures also were significant (full-scale IQ: β = −3.00; P = .009; verbal IQ: β = −3.53; P = .002). CONCLUSION These results provide evidence that environmental PAHs at levels encountered in New York City air can affect children’s IQ adversely. PMID:19620194

  19. Developmental potential in the first 5 years for children in developing countries

    PubMed Central

    Grantham-McGregor, Sally; Cheung, Yin Bun; Cueto, Santiago; Glewwe, Paul; Richter, Linda; Strupp, Barbara

    2007-01-01

    Summary Many children younger than 5 years in developing countries are exposed to multiple risks, including poverty, malnutrition, poor health, and unstimulating home environments, which detrimentally affect their cognitive, motor, and social-emotional development. There are few national statistics on the development of young children in developing countries. We therefore identified two factors with available worldwide data—the prevalence of early childhood stunting and the number of people living in absolute poverty—to use as indicators of poor development. We show that both indicators are closely associated with poor cognitive and educational performance in children and use them to estimate that over 200 million children under 5 years are not fulfilling their developmental potential. Most of these children live in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. These disadvantaged children are likely to do poorly in school and subsequently have low incomes, high fertility, and provide poor care for their children, thus contributing to the intergenerational transmission of poverty. PMID:17208643

  20. Surgical resection of colorectal recurrence of gastric cancer more than 5 years after primary resection

    PubMed Central

    Noji, Takehiro; Yamamura, Yoshiyuki; Muto, Jun; Kuroda, Aki; Koinuma, Junkichi; Yoshioka, Tatsuya; Murakawa, Katsuhiko; Otake, Setsuyuki; Hirano, Satoshi; Ono, Koichi

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Intestinal metastasis from gastric cancer is rare, although the most common cause of secondary neoplastic infiltration of the colon is gastric cancer. However, little data is available on recurrence or death in patients with gastric cancer surviving >5 years post-gastrectomy. Here we report two cases of lower intestinal metastasis from gastric cancer >5 years after primary resection and discuss with reference to the literature. PRESENTATION OF CASE Case 1: A 61-year-old man with a history of total gastrectomy for gastric cancer 9 years earlier was referred to our hospital with constipation and abdominal distention. We diagnosed primary colon cancer and subsequently performed extended left hemicolectomy. Histological examination revealed poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma resembling the gastric tumor he had 9 years earlier. The patient refused postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy and remained alive with cancerous peritonitis and skin metastases as of 17 months later. Case 2: A 46-year-old woman with a history of total gastrectomy for gastric cancer 9 years earlier presented with constipation. She also had a history of Krukenberg tumor 3 years earlier. We diagnosed metastatic rectal cancer and subsequently performed low anterior resection and hysterectomy. Pathological examination revealed poorly differentiated tubular adenocarcinoma, resembling the gastric tumor. The patient remained alive without recurrence as of 17 months later. DISCUSSION We found 19 reported cases of patients with resection of colon metastases from gastric cancer. Median disease-free interval was 74 months. CONCLUSION Resection of late-onset colorectal recurrence from gastric cancer appears worthwhile for selected patients. PMID:25460445

  1. A prospective cohort study on the survival experience of under five children in rural western India.

    PubMed

    Hirve, S; Ganatra, B

    1997-11-01

    Findings are presented from a prospective study conducted in 45 villages in Shirur Development Block in Pune District, Maharashtra, to gain insight into the role of birth weight, nutrition, immunization, and other medical and social factors in determining child survival. 4129 children were followed from birth until age 5 years, with child weight and length/height measured at birth and at 3 monthly home visits. Information was also obtained on common childhood morbidities, immunization status, and other biomedical factors, and the cause of death was ascertained through verbal autopsy. The neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality rates were estimated to be 37, 60, and 79 per 1000 live births, respectively. Diarrhea and acute respiratory infections (ARI) contributed to the major mortality burden. The Kaplan Meier Survival curve showed a sharp fall in the neonatal period, a less rapid decline during the post-neonatal period, followed by a marginal fall in the post-infancy period until age 5 years. Girls had a better survival during the early neonatal period, but the trend reversed during the late neonatal period. Normal birth weight children had better survival curves compared to low birth weight children. Survival improved with increasing birth order. Multivariate analysis found that birth weight, immunization status, and mother's and child's nutritional status influenced infant and under-five mortality. Since birth weight continues to influence survival and mortality even up to age 5 years, strategies to improve child survival should include immunization and breast-feeding. PMID:9567529

  2. Hospital Acquired Pneumonia is an Independent Predictor of Poor Global Outcome in Severe Traumatic Brain Injury up to 5 Years after Discharge

    PubMed Central

    Kesinger, Matthew R.; Kumar, Raj G.; Wagner, Amy K.; Puyana, Juan C.; Peitzman, Andrew P.; Billiar, Timothy R.; Sperry, Jason L.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Long-term outcomes following traumatic brain injury (TBI) correlate with initial head injury severity and other acute factors. Hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) is a common complication in TBI. Little information exists regarding the significance of infectious complications on long-term outcomes post-TBI. We sought to characterize risks associated with HAP on outcomes 5 years post-TBI. Methods Ddata from the merger of an institutional trauma registry and the TBI Model Systems outcome data. Individuals with severe head injuries (Abbreviated Injury Scale≥4), who survived to rehabilitation were analyzed. Primary outcome was Glasgow Outcome Scaled-Extended (GOSE) at 1, 2, and 5 years. GOSE was dichotomized into LOW (GOSE<6) and HIGH (GOSE≥6). Logistic regression was utilized to determine adjusted odds of LOW-GOSE associated with HAP after controlling for age, sex, head and overall injury severity, cranial surgery, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), ventilation days, and other important confounders. A general estimating equation (GEE) model was used to analyze all outcome observations simultaneously while controlling for within-patient correlation. Results A total of 141 individuals met inclusion criteria, with a 30% incidence of HAP. Individuals with and without HAP had similar demographic profiles, presenting vitals, head injury severity, and prevalence of cranial surgery. Individuals with HAP had lower presenting GCS. Logistic regression demonstrated that HAP was independently associated with LOW-GOSE scores at follow-up (1year: OR=6.39, 95%CI: 1.76-23.14, p=0.005; 2-years: OR=7.30, 95%CI 1.87-27.89, p=0.004; 5-years: OR=6.89, 95%CI: 1.42-33.39, p=0.017). Stratifying by GCS≤8 and early intubation, HAP remained a significant independent predictor of LOW-GOSE in all strata. In the GEE model, HAP continued to be an independent predictor of LOW-GOSE (OR: 4.59; 95%CI: 1.82-11.60′ p=0.001). Conclusion HAP is independently associated with poor outcomes in severe

  3. Estimates of direct and indirect effects for early juvenile survival in captive populations maintained for conservation purposes: the case of Cuvier's gazelle

    PubMed Central

    Ibáñez, Belén; Cervantes, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Juan P; Goyache, Félix; Moreno, Eulalia

    2014-01-01

    Together with the avoidance of any negative impact of inbreeding, preservation of genetic variability for life-history traits that could undergo future selective pressure is a major issue in endangered species management programmes. However, most of these programmes ignore that, apart from the direct action of genes on such traits, parents, as contributors of offspring environment, can influence offspring performance through indirect parental effects (when parental genotype and phenotype exerts environmental influences on offspring phenotype independently of additive genetic effects). Using quantitative genetic models, we estimated the additive genetic variance for juvenile survival in a population of the endangered Cuvier's gazelle kept in captivity since 1975. The dataset analyzed included performance recording for 700 calves and a total pedigree of 740 individuals. Results indicated that in this population juvenile survival harbors significant additive genetic variance. The estimates of heritability obtained were in general moderate (0.115–0.457) and not affected by the inclusion of inbreeding in the models. Maternal genetic contribution to juvenile survival seems to be of major importance in this gazelle's population as well. Indirect genetic and indirect environmental effects assigned to mothers (i.e., maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects) roughly explain a quarter of the total variance estimated for the trait analyzed. These findings have major evolutionary consequences for the species as show that offspring phenotypes can evolve strictly through changes in the environment provided by mothers. They are also relevant for the captive breeding programme of the species. To take into account, the contribution that mothers have on offspring phenotype through indirect genetic effects when designing pairing strategies might serve to identify those females with better ability to recruit, and, additionally, to predict reliable responses to

  4. Surgical treatment of cardiac tumors: a 5-year experience from a single cardiac center

    PubMed Central

    Yin, Liang; He, Dengke; Shen, Hua; Ling, Xinyu; Li, Wei; Xue, Qian

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiac tumors are rare but manifested with various clinical presentations and often cause unexpected symptoms or sudden death. The objective is to review the clinical presentation, histopathological spectrum, mortality and follow-up data of patients with cardiac tumors following surgery treatment over a period of 5 years. Methods We retrospectively collected the medical records of all patients diagnosed of cardiac tumors in the period between January 2008 and December 2013 at the cardiac center of our university. Clinical histories, perioperative data, surgical findings, efficacy and follow-up data were reviewed in our study. Patients were divided into two groups according to site distribution of the tumors in the heart. Results A total of 131 patients underwent surgical treatment of cardiac tumors were enrolled in this study, with a mean age of 51.39±16.37. The result of analysis showed that 79.47% (n=104) of the primary intracardiac tumors were benign, while primary malignant neoplasms accounted for 16.03% (n=21) of all patients, with the remainder (n=6, 4.6%) metastatic tumors transferred from other organs. Among all patients there were 2 in-hospital deaths and the survival rate in all patients at 1-year, 3-year and 5-year follow up was 83.20%, 78.62% and 66.41% respectively. Both patients with tumors in the left and right heart had similar basic characteristics except sex gender (P=0.002), BSA (P=0.045) and weight (P=0.033). Compared with patients with tumors in the right heart, patients with tumors in the left heart had significant higher CPB time (P<0.001), cross clamp time (P<0.001) and time of mechanical ventilation (P<0.001), and they also had longer ICU stay (P<0.001) but not total hospital stay (P=0.434). Conclusions Surgical resection represents an effective protocol in treating cardiac tumors. Data in our study of cardiac tumors on frequency and allocation were consistent with previous reports which may provide useful clinical evidence on

  5. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XXI; A Summary of Methods for Conducting Salmonid Fry Mark-Recapture Studies for Estimating Survival in Tributaries, Technical Report 2005-2006.

    SciTech Connect

    Skalski, John

    2007-02-01

    Productivity and early fry survival can have a major influence on the dynamics of fish stocks. To investigate the early life history of fish, numerous methods have been developed or adapted to these much smaller fish. Some of the marking techniques provide individual identification; many others, only class identification. Some of the tagging techniques require destructive sampling to identify a mark; other methods permit benign examination and rerelease of captured fish. Sixteen alternative release-recapture designs for conducting fry survival investigations were examined. Eleven approaches were found capable of estimating survival parameters; five were not. Of those methods capable of estimating fry survival, five required unique marks, four required batch-specific marks, and two approaches required remarking and rereleasing captured fry. No approach based on a simple batch mark was capable of statistically estimating survival.

  6. Partial Breast Radiation Therapy With Proton Beam: 5-Year Results With Cosmetic Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Bush, David A.; Do, Sharon; Lum, Sharon; Garberoglio, Carlos; Mirshahidi, Hamid; Patyal, Baldev; Grove, Roger; Slater, Jerry D.

    2014-11-01

    Purpose: We updated our previous report of a phase 2 trial using proton beam radiation therapy to deliver partial breast irradiation (PBI) in patients with early stage breast cancer. Methods and Materials: Eligible subjects had invasive nonlobular carcinoma with a maximal dimension of 3 cm. Patients underwent partial mastectomy with negative margins; axillary lymph nodes were negative on sampling. Subjects received postoperative proton beam radiation therapy to the surgical bed. The dose delivered was 40 Gy in 10 fractions, once daily over 2 weeks. Multiple fields were treated daily, and skin-sparing techniques were used. Following treatment, patients were evaluated with clinical assessments and annual mammograms to monitor toxicity, tumor recurrence, and cosmesis. Results: One hundred subjects were enrolled and treated. All patients completed the assigned treatment and were available for post-treatment analysis. The median follow-up was 60 months. Patients had a mean age of 63 years; 90% had ductal histology; the average tumor size was 1.3 cm. Actuarial data at 5 years included ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence-free survival of 97% (95% confidence interval: 100%-93%); disease-free survival of 94%; and overall survival of 95%. There were no cases of grade 3 or higher acute skin reactions, and late skin reactions included 7 cases of grade 1 telangiectasia. Patient- and physician-reported cosmesis was good to excellent in 90% of responses, was not changed from baseline measurements, and was well maintained throughout the entire 5-year follow-up period. Conclusions: Proton beam radiation therapy for PBI produced excellent ipsilateral breast recurrence-free survival with minimal toxicity. The treatment proved to be adaptable to all breast sizes and lumpectomy cavity configurations. Cosmetic results appear to be excellent and unchanged from baseline out to 5 years following treatment. Cosmetic results may be improved over those reported with photon

  7. Survival rate of breast cancer patients in Malaysia: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Nor Aini; Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Muhammad, Nor Asiah; Ali, Zainudin Mohamad; Ibrahim, Lailanor; Ibrahim Tamim, Nor Saleha; Mustafa, Amal Nasir; Kamaluddin, Muhammad Amir

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. Other than hospital-based results, there are no documented population-based survival rates of Malaysian women for breast cancers. This population- based retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted. Data were obtained from Health Informatics Centre, Ministry of Health Malaysia, National Cancer Registry and National Registration Department for the period from 1st Jan 2000 to 31st December 2005. Cases were captured by ICD-10 and linked to death certificates to identify the status. Only complete data were analysed. Survival time was calculated from the estimated date of diagnosis to the date of death or date of loss to follow-up. Observed survival rates were estimated by Kaplan- Meier method using SPSS Statistical Software version 17. A total of 10,230 complete data sets were analysed. The mean age at diagnosis was 50.6 years old. The overall 5-year survival rate was 49% with median survival time of 68.1 months. Indian women had a higher survival rate of 54% compared to Chinese women (49%) and Malays (45%). The overall 5-year survival rate of breast cancer patient among Malaysian women was still low for the cohort of 2000 to 2005 as compared to survival rates in developed nations. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the strategies for early detection and intervention.

  8. First estimates of the probability of survival in a small-bodied, high-elevation frog (Boreal Chorus Frog, Pseudacris maculata), or how historical data can be useful

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, R. D.; Amburgey, S. M.; Matthews, T.; Spencer, A. W.; Corn, P.S.

    2016-01-01

    In an era of shrinking budgets yet increasing demands for conservation, the value of existing (i.e., historical) data are elevated. Lengthy time series on common, or previously common, species are particularly valuable and may be available only through the use of historical information. We provide first estimates of the probability of survival and longevity (0.67–0.79 and 5–7 years, respectively) for a subalpine population of a small-bodied, ostensibly common amphibian, the Boreal Chorus Frog (Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)), using historical data and contemporary, hypothesis-driven information–theoretic analyses. We also test a priori hypotheses about the effects of color morph (as suggested by early reports) and of drought (as suggested by recent climate predictions) on survival. Using robust mark–recapture models, we find some support for early hypotheses regarding the effect of color on survival, but we find no effect of drought. The congruence between early findings and our analyses highlights the usefulness of historical information in providing raw data for contemporary analyses and context for conservation and management decisions.

  9. Vitamin A deficiency and attributable mortality among under-5-year-olds.

    PubMed Central

    Humphrey, J. H.; West, K. P.; Sommer, A.

    1992-01-01

    Reported are estimates of the prevalence in developing countries of physiologically significant vitamin A deficiency and the number of attributable deaths. The WHO classification of countries by the severity and extent of xerophthalmia was used to categorize developing countries by likely risk of subclinical vitamin A deficiency. Using vital statistics compiled by UNICEF, we derived population figures and mortality rates for under-5-year-olds. The findings of vitamin A supplementation trials were applied to populations at-risk of endemic vitamin A deficiency to estimate the potential impact of improved vitamin A nutriture in reducing mortality during preschool years. Worldwide, over 124 million children are estimated to be vitamin A deficient. Improved vitamin A nutriture would be expected to prevent approximately 1-2 million deaths annually among children aged 1-4 years. An additional 0.25-0.5 million deaths may be averted if improved vitamin A nutriture can be achieved during the latter half of infancy. Improved vitamin A nutriture alone could prevent 1.3-2.5 million of the nearly 8 million late infancy and preschool-age child deaths that occur each year in the highest-risk developing countries. PMID:1600583

  10. Establishment and Validation of SSCLIP Scoring System to Estimate Survival in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Who Received Curative Liver Resection

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Sha; Huang, Gui-Qian; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Liu, Wen-Yue; You, Jie; Shi, Ke-Qing; Wang, Xiao-Bo; Che, Han-Yang; Chen, Guo-Liang; Fang, Jian-Feng; Zhou, Yi; Zhou, Meng-Tao; Chen, Yong-Ping; Braddock, Martin; Zheng, Ming-Hua

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims There is no prognostic model that is reliable and practical for patients who have received curative liver resection (CLR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to establish and validate a Surgery-Specific Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (SSCLIP) scoring system for those patients. Methods 668 eligible patients who underwent CLR for HCC from five separate tertiary hospitals were selected. The SSCLIP was constructed from a training cohort by adding independent predictors that were identified by Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to the original Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP). The prognostic performance of the SSCLIP at 12 and 36-months was compared with data from existing models. The patient survival distributions at different risk levels of the SSCLIP were also assessed. Results Four independent predictors were added to construct the SSCLIP, including age (HR = 1.075, 95%CI: 1.019–1.135, P = 0.009), albumin (HR = 0.804, 95%CI: 0.681–0.950, P = 0.011), prothrombin time activity (HR = 0.856, 95%CI: 0.751–0.975, P = 0.020) and microvascular invasion (HR = 19.852, 95%CI: 2.203–178.917, P = 0.008). In both training and validation cohorts, 12-month and 36-month prognostic performance of the SSCLIP were significantly better than those of the original CLIP, model of end-stage liver disease-based CLIP, Okuda and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (all P < 0.05). The stratification of risk levels of the SSCLIP showed an enhanced ability to differentiate patients with different outcomes. Conclusions A novel SSCLIP to predict survival of HCC patients who received CLR based on objective parameters may provide a refined, useful prognosis algorithm. PMID:26057656

  11. Cardiovascular events in acromegaly: distinct role of Agatston and Framingham score in the 5-year prediction.

    PubMed

    Ragonese, Marta; Alibrandi, Angela; Di Bella, Gianluca; Salamone, Ignazio; Puglisi, Soraya; Cotta, Oana Ruxandra; Torre, Maria Luisa; Ferrau, Francesco; Ruggeri, Rosaria Maddalena; Trimarchi, Francesco; Cannavo, Salvatore

    2014-09-01

    Prediction of ischemic cardiovascular events (ICE) in acromegalic patients stratified accordingly with Framingham (FS) and Agatston score (AS). 32 patients with active (group A (0)) and 20 with controlled (group B (0)) acromegaly have been enrolled. During the 5-year follow-up, 19 out of 32 patients in group A (0) reached disease control. At entry, FS and AS, by an eight-slice MDCT scanner, were calculated in all patients. ICE were diagnosed by autopsy, if lethal, and by electrocardiography and/or echocardiography, if non-lethal. Overall, 9.6 % of patients died for lethal ICE. AS >400, but not high FS at entry, was associated with increased risk of lethal ICE. Lethal ICE had occurred in two patients of group A (0) and three of group B (0) (p NS), while a non-lethal ICE had occurred in two cases of the former and in other two of the latter group (p NS). Either FS or AS was correlated with the risk for ICE overall (p < 0.02), but only AS correlated with that of lethal ICE (p < 0.0003). Survival analysis demonstrated reduced life expectancy in patients with high FS (p < 0.02). In acromegalics, AS >400 is associated with increased risk of lethal ICE, while high FS is associated with reduced life expectancy, regardless of disease control.

  12. A case of primary spinal atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor in a 5-year-old child

    PubMed Central

    Mankotia, Dipanker Singh; Tandon, Vivek; Sharma, Bhawani Shankar; Rajeshwari, Madhu; Sharma, Mehar Chand

    2016-01-01

    Atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor (AT/RT) is a rare central nervous system neoplasm affecting children, and isolated primary spinal involvement is extremely rare. Authors describe a case of spinal AT/RT in a 5-year-old male child presenting with rapidly progressing quadriparesis diagnosed and managed surgically and medically. Biopsy revealed large, rhabdoid cells with prominent nucleoli in nest and immunohistochemistry further showed loss of integrase integrator 1 expression considered to be gold standard for diagnosis. AT/RT has extremely poor prognosis with median survival being 6 months. PMID:27606020

  13. A case of primary spinal atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor in a 5-year-old child.

    PubMed

    Mankotia, Dipanker Singh; Tandon, Vivek; Sharma, Bhawani Shankar; Rajeshwari, Madhu; Sharma, Mehar Chand

    2016-01-01

    Atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor (AT/RT) is a rare central nervous system neoplasm affecting children, and isolated primary spinal involvement is extremely rare. Authors describe a case of spinal AT/RT in a 5-year-old male child presenting with rapidly progressing quadriparesis diagnosed and managed surgically and medically. Biopsy revealed large, rhabdoid cells with prominent nucleoli in nest and immunohistochemistry further showed loss of integrase integrator 1 expression considered to be gold standard for diagnosis. AT/RT has extremely poor prognosis with median survival being 6 months. PMID:27606020

  14. Configuring Balanced Scorecards for Measuring Health System Performance: Evidence from 5 Years' Evaluation in Afghanistan

    PubMed Central

    Edward, Anbrasi; Kumar, Binay; Kakar, Faizullah; Salehi, Ahmad Shah; Burnham, Gilbert; Peters, David H.

    2011-01-01

    Background In 2004, Afghanistan pioneered a balanced scorecard (BSC) performance system to manage the delivery of primary health care services. This study examines the trends of 29 key performance indicators over a 5-year period between 2004 and 2008. Methods and Findings Independent evaluations of performance in six domains were conducted annually through 5,500 patient observations and exit interviews and 1,500 provider interviews in >600 facilities selected by stratified random sampling in each province. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were used to assess trends in BSC parameters. There was a progressive improvement in the national median scores scaled from 0–100 between 2004 and 2008 in all six domains: patient and community satisfaction of services (65.3–84.5, p<0.0001); provider satisfaction (65.4–79.2, p<0.01); capacity for service provision (47.4–76.4, p<0.0001); quality of services (40.5–67.4, p<0.0001); and overall vision for pro-poor and pro-female health services (52.0–52.6). The financial domain also showed improvement until 2007 (84.4–95.7, p<0.01), after which user fees were eliminated. By 2008, all provinces achieved the upper benchmark of national median set in 2004. Conclusions The BSC has been successfully employed to assess and improve health service capacity and service delivery using performance benchmarking during the 5-year period. However, scorecard reconfigurations are needed to integrate effectiveness and efficiency measures and accommodate changes in health systems policy and strategy architecture to ensure its continued relevance and effectiveness as a comprehensive health system performance measure. The process of BSC design and implementation can serve as a valuable prototype for health policy planners managing performance in similar health care contexts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21814499

  15. Recent cancer survival in Germany: an analysis of common and less common cancers.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Lina; Castro, Felipe A; Gondos, Adam; Krilaviciute, Agne; Barnes, Benjamin; Eberle, Andrea; Emrich, Katharina; Hentschel, Stefan; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Brenner, Hermann

    2015-06-01

    The monitoring of cancer survival by population-based cancer registries is a prerequisite to evaluate the current quality of cancer care. Our study provides 1-, 5- and 10-year relative survival as well as 5-year relative survival conditional on 1-year survival estimates and recent survival trends for Germany using data from 11 population-based cancer registries, covering around one-third of the German population. Period analysis was used to estimate relative survival for 24 common and 11 less common cancer sites for the period 2007-2010. The German and the United States survival estimates were compared using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 13 database. Trends in cancer survival in Germany between 2002-2004 and 2008-2010 were described. Five-year relative survival increased in Germany from 2002-2004 to 2008-2010 for most cancer sites. Among the 24 most common cancers, largest improvements were seen for multiple myeloma (8.0% units), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (6.2% units), prostate cancer (5.2% units) and colorectal cancer (4.6% units). In 2007-2010, the survival disadvantage in Germany compared to the United States was largest for cancers of the mouth/pharynx (-11.0% units), thyroid (-6.8% units) and prostate (-7.5% units). Although survival estimates were much lower for elderly patients in both countries, differences in age patterns were observed for some cancer sites. The reported improvements in cancer survival might reflect advances in the quality of cancer care on the population level as well as increased use of screening in Germany. The survival differences across countries and the survival disadvantage in the elderly require further investigation.

  16. Recent cancer survival in Germany: an analysis of common and less common cancers.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Lina; Castro, Felipe A; Gondos, Adam; Krilaviciute, Agne; Barnes, Benjamin; Eberle, Andrea; Emrich, Katharina; Hentschel, Stefan; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Brenner, Hermann

    2015-06-01

    The monitoring of cancer survival by population-based cancer registries is a prerequisite to evaluate the current quality of cancer care. Our study provides 1-, 5- and 10-year relative survival as well as 5-year relative survival conditional on 1-year survival estimates and recent survival trends for Germany using data from 11 population-based cancer registries, covering around one-third of the German population. Period analysis was used to estimate relative survival for 24 common and 11 less common cancer sites for the period 2007-2010. The German and the United States survival estimates were compared using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 13 database. Trends in cancer survival in Germany between 2002-2004 and 2008-2010 were described. Five-year relative survival increased in Germany from 2002-2004 to 2008-2010 for most cancer sites. Among the 24 most common cancers, largest improvements were seen for multiple myeloma (8.0% units), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (6.2% units), prostate cancer (5.2% units) and colorectal cancer (4.6% units). In 2007-2010, the survival disadvantage in Germany compared to the United States was largest for cancers of the mouth/pharynx (-11.0% units), thyroid (-6.8% units) and prostate (-7.5% units). Although survival estimates were much lower for elderly patients in both countries, differences in age patterns were observed for some cancer sites. The reported improvements in cancer survival might reflect advances in the quality of cancer care on the population level as well as increased use of screening in Germany. The survival differences across countries and the survival disadvantage in the elderly require further investigation. PMID:25380088

  17. Municipal solid waste management in Tehran: Changes during the last 5 years.

    PubMed

    Malmir, Tahereh; Tojo, Yasumasa

    2016-05-01

    The situation of waste management in Tehran was a typical example of it in developing countries. The amount of municipal solid waste has been increasing and the city has depended on landfill for municipal solid waste management. However, in recent years, various measures have been taken by the city, such as collecting recyclables at the source and increasing the capacity of waste-processing facilities. As a result, significant changes in the waste stream are starting to occur. This study investigated the nature of, and reasons for, the marked changes in the waste stream from 2008 to 2012 by analysing the municipal solid waste statistics published by the Tehran Waste Management Organization in 2013 and survey data on the physical composition of the municipal solid waste. The following trends were identified: Although the generation of municipal solid waste increased by 10% during the 5-year period, the amount of waste directly disposed of to landfill halved and resource recovery almost doubled. An increase in the capacity of a waste-processing facility contributed significantly to these changes. The biodegradable fraction going to landfill was estimated by using the quantity and the composition of each input to the landfill. The estimated result in 2012 decreased to 49% of its value in 2008. PMID:26922086

  18. Municipal solid waste management in Tehran: Changes during the last 5 years.

    PubMed

    Malmir, Tahereh; Tojo, Yasumasa

    2016-05-01

    The situation of waste management in Tehran was a typical example of it in developing countries. The amount of municipal solid waste has been increasing and the city has depended on landfill for municipal solid waste management. However, in recent years, various measures have been taken by the city, such as collecting recyclables at the source and increasing the capacity of waste-processing facilities. As a result, significant changes in the waste stream are starting to occur. This study investigated the nature of, and reasons for, the marked changes in the waste stream from 2008 to 2012 by analysing the municipal solid waste statistics published by the Tehran Waste Management Organization in 2013 and survey data on the physical composition of the municipal solid waste. The following trends were identified: Although the generation of municipal solid waste increased by 10% during the 5-year period, the amount of waste directly disposed of to landfill halved and resource recovery almost doubled. An increase in the capacity of a waste-processing facility contributed significantly to these changes. The biodegradable fraction going to landfill was estimated by using the quantity and the composition of each input to the landfill. The estimated result in 2012 decreased to 49% of its value in 2008.

  19. Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

    PubMed Central

    Allemani, Claudia; Weir, Hannah K; Carreira, Helena; Harewood, Rhea; Spika, Devon; Wang, Xiao-Si; Bannon, Finian; Ahn, Jane V; Johnson, Christopher J; Bonaventure, Audrey; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Stiller, Charles; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Chen, Wan-Qing; Ogunbiyi, Olufemi J; Rachet, Bernard; Soeberg, Matthew J; You, Hui; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Bielska-Lasota, Magdalena; Storm, Hans; Tucker, Thomas C; Coleman, Michel P

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. Methods Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15–99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0–14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995–2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. Findings 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005–09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15–19% in North America, and as low as 7–9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10–20% between 1995–99 and 2005–09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer

  20. Alveolar Ridge Contouring with Free Connective Tissue Graft at Implant Placement: A 5-Year Consecutive Clinical Study.

    PubMed

    Hanser, Thomas; Khoury, Fouad

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluated volume stability after alveolar ridge contouring with free connective tissue grafts at implant placement in single-tooth gaps. A total of 52 single-tooth gaps with labial volume deficiencies in the maxilla (incisors, canines, and premolars) were consecutively treated with implants and concomitant free palatal connective tissue grafts in 46 patients between 2006 and 2009. Implants had to be covered with at least 2 mm peri-implant local bone after insertion. At implant placement, a free connective tissue graft from the palate was fixed inside a labial split-thickness flap to form an existing concave buccal alveolar ridge contour due to tissue volume deficiency into a convex shape. Standardized volumetric measurements of the labial alveolar contour using a template were evaluated before connective tissue grafting and at 2 weeks, 1 year, and 5 years after implantprosthetic incorporation. Tissue volume had increased significantly (P < .05) in all six reference points representing the outer alveolar soft tissue contour of the implant before connective tissue grafting to baseline (2 weeks after implant-prosthetic incorporation). Statistically, 50% of the reference points (P > .05) kept their volume from baseline to 1 year after prosthetic incorporation and from baseline to 5 years after prosthetic incorporation, respectively, whereas reference points located within the area of the implant sulcus showed a significant (P < .05) decrease in volume. Clinically, 5 years after prosthetic incorporation the originally concave buccal alveolar contour was still convex in all implants, leading to a continuous favorable anatomical shape and improved esthetic situation. Intraoral radiographs confirmed osseointegration and stable peri-implant parameters with a survival rate of 100% after a follow-up of approximately 5 years. Implant placement with concomitant free connective tissue grafting appears to be an appropriate long-term means to contour preexisting buccal

  1. Slope Estimation for Bivariate Longitudinal Outcomes Adjusting for Informative Right Censoring Using Discrete Survival Model: Application to the Renal Transplant Cohort.

    PubMed

    Jaffa, Miran A; Woolson, Robert F; Lipsitz, Stuart R

    2011-04-01

    Patients undergoing renal transplantation are prone to graft failure which causes lost of follow-up measures on their blood urea nitrogen and serum creatinine levels. These two outcomes are measured repeatedly over time to assess renal function following transplantation. Loss of follow-up on these bivariate measures results in informative right censoring, a common problem in longitudinal data that should be adjusted for so that valid estimates are obtained. In this study, we propose a bivariate model that jointly models these two longitudinal correlated outcomes and generates population and individual slopes adjusting for informative right censoring using a discrete survival approach. The proposed approach is applied to the clinical dataset of patients who had undergone renal transplantation. A simulation study validates the effectiveness of the approach.

  2. Conditional disease-free survival after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Jian; Zhu, Ying; Ma, Feng; Ren, Yifang; Lu, Jianwen; Wang, Zhengxin; Qin, Lunxiu; Wu, Rongqian; Lv, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Traditionally, survival estimates following liver transplantation (LT) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients were calculated as survival from the surgery date, but future survival probabilities can change over time and conditional disease-free survival (CDFS) may provide patients and clinicians with more accurate prognostic information. This study aimed to assess CDFS in HCC patients after LT. Three hundred eighty-four HCC patients who underwent LT were included. Disease-free survival (DFS) was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier analysis. The 3-year CDFS, which represents the probability of remaining disease free for an additional 3 years, was calculated. 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS rates after LT were 69.9%, 45.8%, and 39.0 %, respectively. Based on the concept of CDFS, the probability of surviving an additional 3 years given that the patient was disease free at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 58.4%, 76.9%, and 83.1%, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that larger tumor size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.509; 95% CI, 1.146–1.985; P = 0.003) was associated with poorer DFS. Patients with worse prognostic features at baseline demonstrated the greater increase in CDFS over time. Survival estimates following liver transplantation of HCC patients change according to survival time accrued since surgery. CDFS estimates improved dramatically over time especially among patients with worse prognostic features at the time of surgery. CDFS may be a useful tool in counseling patients with HCC, as it is a more accurate assessment of future survival for those patients who have already survived a certain amount of time. PMID:27495049

  3. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Evaluating Wetland Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary using Hydroacoustic Telemetry Arrays to Estimate Movement, Survival, and Residence Times of Juvenile Salmonids, Volume XXII (22).

    SciTech Connect

    Perry, Russell W.; Skalski, John R.

    2008-08-01

    Wetlands in the Columbia River estuary are actively being restored by reconnecting these habitats to the estuary, making more wetland habitats available to rearing and migrating juvenile salmon. Concurrently, thousands of acoustically tagged juvenile salmonids are released into the Columbia River to estimate their survival as they migrate through the estuary. Here, we develop a release-recapture model that makes use of these tagged fish to measure the success of wetland restoration projects in terms of their contribution to populations of juvenile salmon. Specifically, our model estimates the fraction of the population that enter the wetland, survival within the wetland, and the mean residence time of fish within the wetland. Furthermore, survival in mainstem Columbia River downstream of the wetland can be compared between fish that remained the mainstem and entered the wetland. These conditional survival estimates provide a means of testing whether the wetland improves the subsequent survival of juvenile salmon by fostering growth or improving their condition. Implementing such a study requires little additional cost because it takes advantage of fish already released to estimate survival through the estuary. Thus, such a study extracts the maximum information at minimum cost from research projects that typically cost millions of dollars annually.

  4. Early Number and Arithmetic Performance of Ecuadorian 4-5-Year-Olds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bojorque, Gina; Torbeyns, Joke; Moscoso, Jheni; Van Nijlen, Daniël; Verschaffel, Lieven

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed at (a) constructing a reliable and valid test to assess Ecuadorian 4-5-year olds' number and arithmetic skills; (b) providing empirical data on Ecuadorian 4-5-year olds' number and arithmetic skills; and (c) confronting these children's actual performances with the performances expected by national experts in this domain. We…

  5. 77 FR 64959 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Initiation of 5-Year Review for the Southern Distinct...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-24

    ... update, if necessary, the Northern DPS' status in five years time (70 FR 17386; April 6, 2005). Therefore...; Initiation of 5-Year Review for the Southern Distinct Population Segment of North American Green Sturgeon... 5-year review of the Southern Distinct Population Segment (DPS) of North American green...

  6. Treatment of Chronic PTSD by Cognitive Therapy and Exposure: 5-Year Follow-up

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tarrier, Nicholas; Sommerfield, Claire

    2004-01-01

    Patients who had taken part in a randomized clinical trial of the treatment of chronic PTSD by either cognitive therapy or imaginal exposure were reassessed after 5 years. At 5-year follow-up a clear superiority of cognitive therapy over imaginal exposure emerged, although there had been no difference between the two treatment groups up to 12…

  7. Usability of the Primary Measures of Music Audiation (PMMA) with 5-Year-Old Korean Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Jooyoung

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether a standardized test of music aptitude developed for American children yields results, which may have valid interpretation when used with 5-year-old Korean children. The specific questions regarding the Primary Measures of Music Audiation (PMMA) norms were: (1) Does PMMA when used with 5-year-old…

  8. Child and Mother Cardiac Vagal Tone: Continuity, Stability, and Concordance across the First 5 Years.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bornstein, Marc H.; Suess, Patricia E.

    2000-01-01

    Measured vagal tone and heart period at 2 months and 5 years in children and their mothers to evaluate the development of vagal regulation at rest and during an environmental task. Found that children reached adult levels of baseline vagal tone by 5 years and did not differ from mothers in baseline-to-task change in vagal tone or heart period.…

  9. Epidemiology and mortality of burns in the Lucknow Region, India--a 5 year study.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Sachil; Ali, Wahid; Verma, Anoop K; Pandey, Abhishek; Rathore, Shiuli

    2013-12-01

    Nearly 95% of global burn deaths and disabilities are estimated to occur in low and middle income countries of the world. Burns are extremely common and are a major public health problem in a developing country like India. The purpose of this study was to record and evaluate the causes and the magnitude of the fatal burns retrospectively. An analysis of autopsy records revealed 2225 (10.7%) cases of burns among the total autopsies done over 5 years period (1st January 2008-27th November 2012) in the mortuary of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology, K.G.M.U., Lucknow. The majority of deaths (88.8%) occurred between 10 and 49 years of age group with a preponderance of females (87.5%). The flame burns were seen in 60.1% of the victims. The majority of burn incidents were suicidal (38.6%) in nature followed by accidental (37.3%) and homicidal (24.1%) deaths. The percentages of burns with a total body surface area (TBSA) over 50% were observed in most of the cases (82.5%). In most of the cases deaths occurred within a week (82%) and most of the victims died from septicaemia and pneumonia (43.7%) followed by neurogenic shock (28.5%). The results of this study provide the necessary information to implement programmes for health education relating to prevention of burns focusing on the domestic setting.

  10. Survival of ART restorations assessed using selected FDI and modified ART restoration criteria.

    PubMed

    Farag, Abeer; van der Sanden, Wil J M; Abdelwahab, Hisran; Frencken, Jo E

    2011-06-01

    A new set of criteria for assessing the quality of restorations using modern restorative materials, named FDI criteria, was recently introduced. This study tested the null hypothesis that there is no significant difference in survival estimate percentages of ART restorations assessed using selected FDI and modified ART criteria after 1 and 5 years. One operator placed a total of 60 class I and 30 Class II high-viscosity glass-ionomer ART restorations in ninety 14- to 15-year-olds. Two calibrated and independent evaluators using both criteria evaluated restorations on diestone replicas at baseline and after 1 and 5 years. Statistical analyses were done using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. The survival results of ART restorations assessed using both sets of criteria after 1 and 5 years (p = 0.27) did not differ significantly. Three ART restorations were assessed as failures according to the ART criteria, while they were assessed as survived using the FDI criteria. We conclude that the modified ART criteria enable reliable assessment of ART restorations in permanent teeth from diestone replicas and that there was no significant difference in survival estimates of ART restorations assessed using both sets of criteria. The null hypothesis was accepted.

  11. 5 years of continuous seismic monitoring of snowmelt cycles in a Pyrenean valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diaz, Jordi; Sánchez-Pastor, Pilar; Gallart, Josep

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the analysis of background seismic noise variations in the proximity of river channels has revealed as a useful tool to monitor river flow, even for modest discharges. We will focus here in the application of this methodology to study the snowmelt cycle in an Pyrenean valley during the last 5 years, using data from the seismic geophysical station located inside the Canfranc Underground Laboratory (Central Pyrenees). Diaz et al. (2014) first identified in the seismic data the signature of river flow increases associated to snowmelt episodes in the catchment area of the Aragon River, based on the marked correlation between the seismic energy variations in the 2-8 Hz frequency band and the estimated variations in water resources from snowfall. The analysis of seismic data during the snowmelt periods allows to identify a clear 24h cycle, with energy increasing from about 14:00 GMT, remaining at a relatively high level for 12 hours and then smoothly vanishing. The spectrogram reveals richer information, as clear variations in the frequency content can be detected during the time intervals in which the amplitude of the seismic signal remains constant. The data available so far allow to compare the evolution of snowmelt in five seasons with very different hydrological behavior. The 2011 and 2012 seasons have been dry, with snow volumes 30-50 % beneath the average values, while the 2013, 2014 and in particular the 2015 seasons have been largely above the mean. Those variations are reflected in the seismic data, which allow to monitor the time occurrence of the main snowmelt stages for each season and to estimate the intensity of the different snowmelt episodes. Therefore, seismic data can be useful for long term monitoring of snowmelt in Alpine-style mountains.

  12. Recent trends in survival of adult patients with acute leukemia: overall improvements, but persistent and partly increasing disparity in survival of patients from minority groups.

    PubMed

    Pulte, Dianne; Redaniel, Maria Theresa; Jansen, Lina; Brenner, Hermann; Jeffreys, Mona

    2013-02-01

    The survival of younger patients with acute leukemia has improved in the early 21(st) century, but it is unknown whether people of all ethnic and racial backgrounds have benefited equally. Using cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program, we assessed trends in 5-year relative survival for patients aged 15 years or more with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and acute myeloblastic leukemia divided by racial and ethnic group, including non-Hispanic whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asian-Pacific Islanders in the 1990s and the early 21(st) century. Modeled period analysis was used to obtain the most up-to-date estimates of survival. Overall, the 5-year survival increased from 31.6% in 1997-2002 to 39.0% in 2003-2008 for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and from 15.5% in 1991-1996 to 22.5% in 2003-2008 for those with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Nevertheless, among patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, age-adjusted 5-year relative survival rates remained lower for African-Americans and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites. Among patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia, the increase in survival was greatest (from 32.6% in 1991-1996 to 47.1% in 2003-2008) for younger patients (15-54 years), and was more pronounced for non-Hispanic whites (+16.4% units) than for other patients (+10.8% units). Increases in survival are observed in all ethnic or racial groups. Nevertheless, among patients with acute leukemias, disparities in survival persist between non-Hispanic white people and people of other ethnic or racial groups. Disparities are increasing in younger patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Improvements in access to treatment, especially for minority patients, may improve outcomes.

  13. Recent trends in survival of adult patients with acute leukemia: overall improvements, but persistent and partly increasing disparity in survival of patients from minority groups

    PubMed Central

    Pulte, Dianne; Redaniel, Maria Theresa; Jansen, Lina; Brenner, Hermann; Jeffreys, Mona

    2013-01-01

    The survival of younger patients with acute leukemia has improved in the early 21st century, but it is unknown whether people of all ethnic and racial backgrounds have benefited equally. Using cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program, we assessed trends in 5-year relative survival for patients aged 15 years or more with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and acute myeloblastic leukemia divided by racial and ethnic group, including non-Hispanic whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asian-Pacific Islanders in the 1990s and the early 21st century. Modeled period analysis was used to obtain the most up-to-date estimates of survival. Overall, the 5-year survival increased from 31.6% in 1997-2002 to 39.0% in 2003-2008 for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and from 15.5% in 1991-1996 to 22.5% in 2003-2008 for those with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Nevertheless, among patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, age-adjusted 5-year relative survival rates remained lower for African-Americans and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites. Among patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia, the increase in survival was greatest (from 32.6% in 1991-1996 to 47.1% in 2003-2008) for younger patients (15-54 years), and was more pronounced for non-Hispanic whites (+16.4% units) than for other patients (+10.8% units). Increases in survival are observed in all ethnic or racial groups. Nevertheless, among patients with acute leukemias, disparities in survival persist between non-Hispanic white people and people of other ethnic or racial groups. Disparities are increasing in younger patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Improvements in access to treatment, especially for minority patients, may improve outcomes. PMID:22929974

  14. Breast cancer survival and health iniquities.

    PubMed

    Guerra, Maximiliano Ribeiro; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Nogueira, Mário Círio; Leite, Isabel Cristina Gonçalves; Oliveira, Raquel de Vasconcellos Carvalhaes de; Cintra, Jane Rocha Duarte; Bustamante-Teixeira, Maria Teresa

    2015-08-01

    Breast cancer is the most frequent neoplasm in women, and some studies have shown social inequalities in incidence and survival, which are poorly investigated in Brazil. To assess iniquity in prognosis, a hospital-based cohort study was carried out. Follow-up was made by active search in medical records and in the Mortality Information System, phone calls, and consultation on Individual Tax-Collection Record status. Survival functions were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the Cox proportional hazards model was employed for prognostic assessment. Disease-specific survival was estimated at 76.3% (95%CI: 71.9-81.0) in 5 years. Women seen at public facilities had worse prognosis (HR = 1.79; 95%CI: 1.09-2.94), which was particularly due to the disease being diagnosed at a more advanced stage. These findings point to inequalities of access to screening actions, as women of lower social conditions with later diagnostic and therefore with worse prognostic. PMID:26375646

  15. Annual recapture and survival rates of two non-breeding adult populations of Roseate Terns Stema dougallii captured on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and estimates of their population sizes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Neill, P.; Minton, C.D.T.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hines, J.E.

    2008-01-01

    Capture-recapture data from two disparate breeding populations of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) captured together as non-breeding individuals from 2002 to 2007 in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Australia were analyzed for both survival rate and recapture rate. The average annual survival rate for the birds from the Asian population (S. d. bangsi) (0.901) is higher than that of the other population of unknown breeding origin (0.819). There was large variability in survival in both populations among years, but the average survival rate of 0.85 is similar to estimates for the same species in North America. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber models used in program MARK to estimate survival rates also produced estimated of recapture probabilities and population sizes. These estimates of population size were 29,000 for S. D. bangsi and 8,300 for the study area and much larger than the documented numbers in the likely breeding areas, suggesting that many breeding sites are currently unknown.

  16. The cancer survival gap between elderly and middle-aged patients in Europe is widening.

    PubMed

    Quaglia, Alberto; Tavilla, Andrea; Shack, Lorraine; Brenner, Hermann; Janssen-Heijnen, Maryska; Allemani, Claudia; Colonna, Marc; Grande, Enrico; Grosclaude, Pascale; Vercelli, Marina

    2009-04-01

    The present study is aimed to compare survival and prognostic changes over time between elderly (70-84 years) and middle-aged cancer patients (55-69 years). We considered seven cancer sites (stomach, colon, breast, cervix and corpus uteri, ovary and prostate) and all cancers combined (but excluding prostate and non-melanoma skin cancers). Five-year relative survival was estimated for cohorts of patients diagnosed in 1988-1999 in a pool of 51 European populations covered by cancer registries. Furthermore, we applied the period-analysis method to more recent incidence data from 32 cancer registries to provide 1- and 5-year relative survival estimates for the period of follow-up 2000-2002. A significant survival improvement was observed from 1988 to 1999 for all cancers combined and for every cancer site, except cervical cancer. However, survival increased at a slower rate in the elderly, so that the gap between younger and older patients widened, particularly for prostate cancer in men and for all considered cancers except cervical cancer in women. For breast and prostate cancers, the increasing gap was likely attributable to a larger use of, respectively, mammographic screening and PSA test in middle-aged with respect to the elderly. In the period analysis of the most recent data, relative survival was much higher in middle-aged patients than in the elderly. The differences were higher for breast and gynaecological cancers, and for prostate cancer. Most of this age gap was due to a very large difference in survival after the 1st year following the diagnosis. Differences were much smaller for conditional 5-year relative survival among patients who had already survived the first year. The increase of survival in elderly men is encouraging but the lesser improvement in women and, in particular, the widening gap for breast cancer suggest that many barriers still delay access to care and that enhanced prevention and clinical management remain major issues.

  17. ASURV: Astronomical SURVival Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feigelson, E. D.; Nelson, P. I.; Isobe, T.; LaValley, M.

    2014-06-01

    ASURV (Astronomical SURVival Statistics) provides astronomy survival analysis for right- and left-censored data including the maximum-likelihood Kaplan-Meier estimator and several univariate two-sample tests, bivariate correlation measures, and linear regressions. ASURV is written in FORTRAN 77, and is stand-alone and does not call any specialized libraries.

  18. Number of Americans on Gluten-Free Diet Tripled in 5 Years

    MedlinePlus

    ... news/fullstory_160811.html Number of Americans on Gluten-Free Diet Tripled in 5 Years But number ... 6, 2016 TUESDAY, Sept. 6, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Gluten-free diets seem to be the latest fad, ...

  19. First series of Exeter small stem primary total hip arthroplasty minimum 5 years of follow-up.

    PubMed

    Tai, Cheh Chin; Nam, Hui Yin; Abbas, Azlina Amir; Merican, Azhar M; Choon, Siew Kit

    2009-12-01

    We carried out a prospective study of 47 Exeter (Stryker Inc, Warsaw, Ind) small stem total hip arthroplasty in 42 patients with an average age of 58 years and a mean follow-up of 8.5 years. The Oxford hip score improved from a preoperative mean of 47 to 17 at last follow-up. More than 87% patients had excellent or good Harris hip scores, and 90% were able to walk with little or no pain. Stem subsidence within the cement mantle was observed in 26% of cases, and none showed evidence of aseptic loosening or implant failure. Two stems were removed due to infection. The survival rate of this implant was 95.7% at 10 years. This first series of Exeter small stem showed excellent medium-term results, comparable to its larger counterparts. PMID:19682839

  20. Intraoperative Radiotherapy as a Boost During Breast-Conserving Surgery Using Low-Kilovoltage X-Rays: The First 5 Years of Experience With a Novel Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Wenz, Frederik; Welzel, Grit; Blank, Elena; Hermann, Brigitte; Steil, Volker; Suetterlin, Marc; Kraus-Tiefenbacher, Uta

    2010-08-01

    Purpose: Intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) during breast-conserving surgery (BCS) has been recently introduced using different devices. We report the first 5 years of a single-center experience after introduction of a novel approach to deliver IORT as a tumor bed boost during BCS for breast cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 155 breast cancers in 154 women (median age, 63 years; range, 30-83 years; T1/T2 = 100/55; N0/N+ = 108/47) were treated between February 2002 and December 2007 at the University Medical Center Mannheim, in whom IORT as tumor bed boost was applied using 50-kV X-rays (20 Gy) followed by 46-50 Gy whole-breast external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT). Chemotherapy, if indicated, was given before EBRT. The median interval between BCS plus IORT and EBRT was 40 days. Median follow-up was 34 months (maximum 80 months, 1 patient lost to follow-up). Overall survival and local relapse-free survival were calculated at 5 years using the Kaplan-Meier method. Seventy-nine patients were evaluated at 3-year follow-up for late toxicity according to the Late Effects in Normal Tissues-Subjective, Objective, Management, and Analytic system. Results: Ten patients died, 2 had in-breast relapse, and 8 developed distant metastases (5-year overall survival = 87.0%; 5-year local relapse-free survival = 98.5%). Grade 3 fibroses of the tumor bed were detected in 5% of the patients after 3 years. Skin toxicity was mild (telangiectases and hyperpigmentations in approximately 6% each). Conclusions: Intraoperative radiotherapy as a tumor bed boost during BCS for breast cancer using low-kilovoltage X-rays followed by EBRT yields low recurrence and toxicity rates.

  1. Breast-Conserving Treatment With Partial or Whole Breast Irradiation for Low-Risk Invasive Breast Carcinoma-5-Year Results of a Randomized Trial

    SciTech Connect

    Polgar, Csaba Fodor, Janos; Major, Tibor; Nemeth, Gyoergy; Loevey, Katalin; Orosz, Zsolt; Sulyok, Zoltan; Takacsi-Nagy, Zoltan; Kasler, Miklos

    2007-11-01

    Purpose: To report the 5-year results of a randomized study comparing the survival and cosmetic results of breast-conserving treatment with partial breast irradiation (PBI) or conventional whole breast irradiation (WBI). Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2004, 258 selected patients with T1 N0-1mi, Grade 1-2, nonlobular breast cancer without presence of extensive intraductal component and resected with negative margins were randomized after breast-conserving surgery to receive 50 Gy/25 fractions WBI (n = 130) or PBI (n = 128). The latter consisted of either 7 x 5.2 Gy high-dose-rate (HDR) multicatheter brachytherapy (BT; n = 88) or 50 Gy/25 fractions electron beam (EB) irradiation (n = 40). Results: At a median follow-up of 66 months, the 5-year actuarial rate of local recurrence was 4.7% and 3.4% in the PBI and WBI arms, respectively (p = 0.50). There was no significant difference in the 5-year probability of overall survival (94.6% vs. 91.8%), cancer-specific survival (98.3% vs. 96.0%), and disease-free survival (88.3% vs. 90.3%). The rate of excellent to good cosmetic result was 77.6% in the PBI group (81.2% after HDR BT; 70.0% after EB) and 62.9% in the control group (52.2% after telecobalt; 65.6% after 6-9-MV photons; p{sub WBI/PBI} = 0.009). Conclusions: Partial breast irradiation using interstitial HDR implants or EB to deliver radiation to the tumor bed alone for a selected group of early-stage breast cancer patients produces 5-year results similar to those achieved with conventional WBI. Significantly better cosmetic outcome can be achieved with carefully designed HDR multicatheter implants compared with the outcome after WBI.

  2. Insight, psychopathology, explanatory models and outcome of schizophrenia in India: a prospective 5-year cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The sole focus of models of insight on bio-medical perspectives to the complete exclusion of local, non-medical and cultural constructs mandates review. This study attempted to investigate the impact of insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness on outcome of first episode schizophrenia. Method Patients diagnosed to have DSM IV schizophrenia (n = 131) were assessed prospectively for insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness at baseline, 6, 12 and 60 months using standard instruments. Multiple linear and logistic regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE) were employed to assess predictors of outcome. Results We could follow up 95 (72.5%) patients. Sixty-five of these patients (68.4%) achieved remission. There was a negative relationship between psychosis rating and insight scores. Urban residence, fluctuating course of the initial illness, and improvement in global functioning at 6 months and lower psychosis rating at 12 months were significantly related to remission at 5 years. Insight scores, number of non-medical explanatory models and individual explanatory models held during the later course of the illness were significantly associated with outcome. Analysis of longitudinal data using GEE showed that women, rural residence, insight scores and number of non-medical explanatory models of illness held were significantly associated with BPRS scores during the study period. Conclusions Insight, the disease model and the number of non-medical model positively correlated with improvement in psychosis arguing for a complex interaction between the culture, context and illness variables. These finding argue that insight and explanatory models are secondary to psychopathology, course and outcome of the illness. The awareness of mental illness is a narrative act in which people make personal sense of the many challenges they face. The course and outcome of the illness, cultural context, acceptable cultural explanations

  3. WHO global rotavirus surveillance network: a strategic review of the first 5 years, 2008-2012.

    PubMed

    Agócs, Mary M; Serhan, Fatima; Yen, Catherine; Mwenda, Jason M; de Oliveira, Lúcia H; Teleb, Nadia; Wasley, Annemarie; Wijesinghe, Pushpa R; Fox, Kimberley; Tate, Jacqueline E; Gentsch, Jon R; Parashar, Umesh D; Kang, Gagandeep

    2014-07-25

    Since 2008, the World Health Organization (WHO) has coordinated the Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network, a network of sentinel surveillance hospitals and laboratories that report to ministries of health (MoHs) and WHO clinical features and rotavirus testing data for children aged <5 years hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis. In 2013, WHO conducted a strategic review to assess surveillance network performance, provide recommendations for strengthening the network, and assess the network's utility as a platform for other vaccine-preventable disease surveillance. The strategic review team determined that during 2011 and 2012, a total of 79 sites in 37 countries met reporting and testing inclusion criteria for data analysis. Of the 37 countries with sites meeting inclusion criteria, 13 (35%) had introduced rotavirus vaccine nationwide. All 79 sites included in the analysis were meeting 2008 network objectives of documenting presence of disease and describing disease epidemiology, and all countries were using the rotavirus surveillance data for vaccine introduction decisions, disease burden estimates, and advocacy; countries were in the process of assessing the use of this surveillance platform for other vaccine-preventable diseases. However, the review also indicated that the network would benefit from enhanced management, standardized data formats, linkage of clinical data with laboratory data, and additional resources to support network functions. In November 2013, WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) endorsed the findings and recommendations made by the review team and noted potential opportunities for using the network as a platform for other vaccine-preventable disease surveillance. WHO will work to implement the recommendations to improve the network's functions and to provide higher quality surveillance data for use in decisions related to vaccine introduction and vaccination program sustainability.

  4. A 5-Year Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Silicone Metacarpophalangeal Arthroplasty in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Squitieri, Lee; Chung, Kevin C.; Hutton, David W.; Burns, Patricia B.; Kim, H. Myra; Mahmoudi, Elham

    2016-01-01

    Background There is a paucity of research evaluating the cost-effectiveness of surgical interventions for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Previous reports have challenged the sustainability of improved outcomes after silicone metacarpophalangeal arthroplasty (SMPA). The objective of this study is to conduct an economic evaluation of the long-term health outcomes after SMPA. Methods We performed a five-year prospective cohort study of 170 patients with RA (73 surgical, 97 non-surgical). Objective functional measurements and patient- rated outcomes using the Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire (MHQ), and the Arthritis Impact Measurement Scale 2(AIMS2) were collected at three and five years. A cost-effectiveness analysis using direct costs from Medicare outpatient claims data (2006-2010) was performed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for both MHQ and AIMS2 measurements. Results At five years, we observed a statistically significant difference in upper extremity outcomes (MHQ) between the two groups, with surgical patients having higher outcomes. The cost associated with improved outcomes five years after surgery was $787-$1,150 when measured by MHQ and $49,843-$149,530 when measured by AIMS2. We found that the ICERs did not substantially increase with our observed surgical revision rate of 5.5% (approximately 4% increase in ICER) or with previously published long-term revision rates of 6.2% (approximately 6% increase in ICER). Conclusion Short term improvements in upper extremity outcomes after SMPA are maintained over the 5 year follow-up period. Given this information, these outcomes are achieved at a relatively low cost, even with the addition of potential surgical complications. PMID:25909303

  5. Effect of water content and temperature on seed longevity of seven Brassicaceae species after 5 years of storage.

    PubMed

    Mira, S; Estrelles, E; González-Benito, M E

    2015-01-01

    Maximising seed longevity is crucial for genetic resource preservation and longevity of orthodox seeds is determined by environmental conditions (water content and temperature). The effect of water content (down to 0.01 g·H₂O·g(-1) ) on seed viability was studied at different temperatures for a 5-year storage period in taxonomically related species. Seeds of seven Brassicaceae species (Brassica repanda, Eruca vesicaria, Malcolmia littorea, Moricandia arvensis, Rorippa nasturtium-aquaticum, Sinapis alba, Sisymbrium runcinatum) were stored at 48 environments comprising a combination of eight water contents, from 0.21 to 0.01 g·H₂O·g(-1) DW and six temperatures (45, 35, 20, 5, -25, -170 °C). Survival curves were modelled and P50 calculated for those conditions where germination was reduced over the 5-year assay period. Critical water content for storage of seeds of six species at 45 °C ranged from 0.02 to 0.03 g·H₂O·g(-1) . The effect of extreme desiccation at 45 °C showed variability among species: three species showed damaging effects of drying below the critical water content, while for three species it was neither detrimental nor beneficial to seed longevity. Lipid content could be related to longevity, depending on the storage conditions. A variable seed longevity response to water content among taxonomically related species was found. The relative position of some of the species as long- or short-lived at 45 °C varied depending on the humidity at which storage behaviour was evaluated. Therefore, predictions of survival under desiccated conditions based on results obtained at high humidity might be problematic for some species.

  6. Clinico-epidemiology of neuroblastoma in north east Egypt: A 5-year multicenter study

    PubMed Central

    AL-TONBARY, YOUSSEF; BADR, MOHAMED; MANSOUR, AHMED; EL SAFY, USAMA; SAEED, SHEBL; HASSAN, TAMER; ELASHERY, RASHA; NOFAL, ROFIDA; DARWISH, AHMAD

    2015-01-01

    Neuroblastoma, an embryonal malignancy of the sympathetic nervous system, is the most frequent extracranial solid tumor The clinico-epidemiological features of neuroblastoma in infants and children were investigated between January 2005 and January 2010 at the Pediatric Oncology units of Mansoura, Zagazig, and Tanta University Children's Hospitals (Egypt). Of 142 cases of neuroblastoma, 10 were omitted from the study due to defective data. The median age of the patients was 30 months, with 75.8% aged ≥1 year and 24.2% aged <1 year at time of diagnosis. The male-to-female ratio was 1.06. Suprarenal glands were the most common primary tumor site (72.7%). The majority of the patients (76.7%) had stage IV disease. Favorable pathology was observed in 43.8% of patients, while 56.2% exhibited unfavorable pathology. The estimated survival rate of patients was 30.7±10.0%, and mean survival time was 24.2±5.2 months. The rate of mortality was 28.6% for patients aged <1 year, and 81.8% for those aged ≥1 year (P=0.005). For patients with favorable pathology, the rate of mortality was significantly lower (28.6%) compared with that of patients with unfavorable pathology (77.8%; P=0.049). Although the association between outcome and each of the primary tumor sites, children's oncology group risk and gender was statistically insignificant, a large effect size was identified between outcome and primary tumor site, as well as children's oncology group risk and a medium effect size was identified between outcome and gender. Additionally, an age of ≥1 year was associated with unfavorable pathology (P=0.024), stage IV disease (P=0.026) and a suprarenal primary tumor site (P=0.001). PMID:26622625

  7. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume VIII; New Model for Estimating Survival Probabilities and Residualization from a Release-Recapture Study of Fall Chinook Salmon Smolts in the Snake River, 1995 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Lowther, Alan B.; Skalski, John R.

    1997-09-01

    Standard release-recapture analysis using Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to estimate survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities for Snake River fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) ignore the possibility of individual fish residualizing and completing their migration in the year following tagging.

  8. Reentry survivability modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fudge, Michael L.; Maher, Robert L.

    1997-10-01

    Statistical methods for expressing the impact risk posed to space systems in general [and the International Space Station (ISS) in particular] by other resident space objects have been examined. One of the findings of this investigation is that there are legitimate physical modeling reasons for the common statistical expression of the collision risk. A combination of statistical methods and physical modeling is also used to express the impact risk posed by re-entering space systems to objects of interest (e.g., people and property) on Earth. One of the largest uncertainties in the expressing of this risk is the estimation of survivable material which survives reentry to impact Earth's surface. This point was recently demonstrated in dramatic fashion by the impact of an intact expendable launch vehicle (ELV) upper stage near a private residence in the continental United States. Since approximately half of the missions supporting ISS will utilize ELVs, it is appropriate to examine the methods used to estimate the amount and physical characteristics of ELV debris surviving reentry to impact Earth's surface. This paper examines reentry survivability estimation methodology, including the specific methodology used by Caiman Sciences' 'Survive' model. Comparison between empirical results (observations of objects which have been recovered on Earth after surviving reentry) and Survive estimates are presented for selected upper stage or spacecraft components and a Delta launch vehicle second stage.

  9. Acclimatization of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration: Synthesis of a 5-year Global Change Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogle, K.; Ryan, E.; Pendall, E. G.

    2013-12-01

    The loss of carbon from ecosystems (ecosystem respiration, Reco) is a dynamic process and temperature is a key factor governing short- and long-term Reco dynamics. The goal of this study is to evaluate the temperature sensitivity of Reco and to learn how it adjusts to environmental conditions such as temperature and experimental warming. To do this, we synthesized 5 years of Reco data generated by the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) study that was conducted in a semi-arid grassland in southeastern Wyoming. The PHACE experiment consists of 6 treatments involving atmospheric CO2 (ambient, elevated), temperature (ambient, warmed), and soil water (ambient, shallow irrigation, deep irrigation). Thus, PHACE provided a unique opportunity to explore how the temperature response of Reco over daily, weekly, and longer time scales is governed by the experimental treatments and co-occurring environmental variation. We synthesized the Reco data using a semi-mechanistic temperature response model that involves a temperature sensitivity term (Eo) analogous to an energy of activation. We explored how Eo varies in response to the experimental treatments and current and antecedent soil water and temperature within a Bayesian framework that allowed us to incorporate a novel stochastic model for the antecedent variables. For example, antecedent temperature is modeled as a weighted average of past daily temperatures, and we estimated the unknown daily weights that quantify potential lag responses and time-scales over which past temperatures affect Eo. Thus, changes in Eo describe instantaneous responses of Reco to temperature, the antecedent temperature effects describe relatively short-term (days/weeks) acclimatization, and the effects of experimental warming describe longer term (months/years) acclimatization potential of Reco. Our analysis predicted that Eo can vary by a factor of 2 or more over the growing season. Although not significant, the trend was for Eo to be

  10. Postfledging survival of European starlings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1989-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that mass at fledging and fledge date within the breeding season affect postfledging survival in European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Nestlings were weighed on day 18 after hatch and tagged with individually identifiable patagial tags. Fledge date was recorded. Marked fledglings were resighted during weekly two-day intensive observation periods for 9 weeks postfledging. Post-fledging survival and sighting probabilities were estimated for each of four groups (early or late fledging by heavy or light fledging mass). Body mass was related to post-fledging survival for birds that fledged early. Results were not clear-cut for relative fledge date, although there was weak evidence that this also influenced survival. Highest survival probability estimates occurred in the EARLY-HEAVY group, while the lowest survival estimate occurred in the LATE-LIGHT group. Sighting probabilities differed significantly among groups, emphasizing the need to estimate and compare survival using models which explicitly incorporate sighting probabilities.

  11. The epidemiology of chickenpox in UK 5-year olds: an analysis to inform vaccine policy.

    PubMed

    Manikkavasagan, Gayatri; Dezateux, Carol; Wade, Angie; Bedford, Helen

    2010-11-10

    Varicella vaccine is not routinely administered to children in many countries including the UK. Longitudinal data are lacking to inform optimal schedules. We report the prevalence of VZV infection at 5 years of age, cumulative incidence between 3 and 5 years and socio-demographic associations with risk of infection using longitudinal data on 12,509 children from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. VZV prevalence by 5 years was 76.9% [95% CI: 75.9%, 78.0%]. The cumulative incidence between 3 and 5 years was 32.2% [95% CI: 31.1%, 33.3%]. Risk of infection by 5 years was associated with higher maternal socio-economic status, larger household size and formal day-care attendance at 9 months and 3 years. If universal varicella immunisation were introduced in the UK, where 40% children have attended some formal day-care by 3 years, a schedule commencing early in the second year of life would be indicated.

  12. Persistence and progression of masked hypertension: a 5-year prospective study.

    PubMed

    Trudel, Xavier; Milot, Alain; Brisson, Chantal

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. To examine masked hypertension persistence over 5 years. Methods. White-collar workers were recruited from three public organizations. Blood pressure (BP) was measured using Spacelabs 90207. Manually operated BP was defined as the mean of the first three readings taken at rest. Ambulatory BP was defined as the mean of the next readings taken every 15 minutes and recorded during working hours. BP was assessed three times over 5 years. Masked hypertension was defined as manually operated BP less than 140 and less than 90 mmHg and ambulatory BP at least 135 or at least 85 mmHg. Sustained hypertension was defined as manually operated BP at least 140 or at least 90 mmHg and ambulatory BP at least 135 or at least 85 mmHg or being treated for hypertension. Results. BP measurements were obtained from 1669 participants from whom 232 had masked hypertension at baseline. Persistence of masked hypertension was 38% and 18.5%, after 3 and 5 years, respectively. Progression to sustained hypertension was 26% and 37%, after 3 and 5 years, respectively. Conclusion. Among baseline masked hypertensives, one-third progressed to sustained hypertension and about one out of five remained masked after 5 years, potentially delaying diagnosis and treatment. PMID:24455208

  13. Microbes in nature are limited by carbon and energy: the starving-survival lifestyle in soil and consequences for estimating microbial rates.

    PubMed

    Hobbie, John E; Hobbie, Erik A

    2013-01-01

    Understanding microbial transformations in soils is important for predicting future carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling. This review questions some methods of assessing one key microbial process, the uptake of labile organic compounds. First, soil microbes have a starving-survival life style of dormancy, arrested activity, and low activity. Yet they are very abundant and remain poised to completely take up all substrates that become available. As a result, dilution assays with the addition of labeled substrates cannot be used. When labeled substrates are transformed into (14)CO2, the first part of the biphasic release follows metabolic rules and is not affected by the environment. As a consequence, when identical amounts of isotopically substrates are added to soils from different climate zones, the same percentage of the substrate is respired and the same half-life of the respired (14)CO2 from the labeled substrate is estimated. Second, when soils are sampled by a variety of methods from taking 10 cm diameter cores to millimeter-scale dialysis chambers, amino acids (and other organic compounds) appear to be released by the severing of fine roots and mycorrhizal networks as well as from pressing or centrifuging treatments. As a result of disturbance as well as of natural root release, concentrations of individual amino acids of ~10 μM are measured. This contrasts with concentrations of a few nanomolar found in aquatic systems and raises questions about possible differences in the bacterial strategy between aquatic and soil ecosystems. The small size of the hyphae (2-10 μm diameter) and of the fine roots (0.2-2 mm diameter), make it very difficult to sample any volume of soil without introducing artifacts. Third, when micromolar amounts of labeled amino acids are added to soil, some of the isotope enters plant roots. This may be an artifact of the high micromolar concentrations applied.

  14. Air pollution and survival within the Washington University-EPRI Veterans Cohort: risks based on modelled estimates of ambient levels of hazardous and criteria air pollutants

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick W. Lipfert; Ronald E. Wyzga; Jack D. Baty; J. Philip Miller

    2009-04-15

    For this paper, we considered relationships between mortality, vehicular traffic density, and ambient levels of 12 hazardous air pollutants, elemental carbon (EC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), and sulfate (SO{sub 4}{sup -2}). These pollutant species were selected as markers for specific types of emission sources, including vehicular traffic, coal combustion, smelters, and metal-working industries. Pollutant exposures were estimated using emissions inventories and atmospheric dispersion models. We analyzed associations between county ambient levels of these pollutants and survival patterns among approximately 70,000 U.S. male veterans by mortality period (1976-2001 and subsets), type of exposure model, and traffic density level. We found significant associations between all-cause mortality and traffic-related air quality indicators and with traffic density per se, with stronger associations for benzene, formaldehyde, diesel particulate, NOx, and EC. The maximum effect on mortality for all cohort subjects during the 26-yr follow-up period is approximately 10%, but most of the pollution-related deaths in this cohort occurred in the higher-traffic counties, where excess risks approach 20%. However, mortality associations with diesel particulates are similar in high- and low-traffic counties. Sensitivity analyses show risks decreasing slightly over time and minor differences between linear and logarithmic exposure models. We conclude that tailpipe emissions of both gases and particles are among the most significant and robust predictors of mortality in this cohort and that most of those associations have weakened over time. There may be concerns associated with large stationary sources burning coal, residual fuel oil and municipal solid wastes. Nickel and arsenic have been identified in coal fly ash and residual oil. 81 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.

  15. The effects of oil pollution on Antarctic benthic diatom communities over 5 years.

    PubMed

    Polmear, R; Stark, J S; Roberts, D; McMinn, A

    2015-01-15

    Although considered pristine, Antarctica has not been impervious to hydrocarbon pollution. Antarctica's history is peppered with oil spills and numerous abandoned waste disposal sites. Both spill events and constant leakages contribute to previous and current sources of pollution into marine sediments. Here we compare the response of the benthic diatom communities over 5 years to exposure to a commonly used standard synthetic lubricant oil, an alternative lubricant marketed as more biodegradable, in comparison to a control treatment. Community composition varied significantly over time and between treatments with some high variability within contaminated treatments suggesting community stress. Both lubricants showed evidence of significant effects on community composition after 5 years even though total petroleum hydrocarbon reduction reached approximately 80% over this time period. It appears that even after 5 years toxicity remains high for both the standard and biodegradable lubricants revealing the temporal scale at which pollutants persist in Antarctica. PMID:25499184

  16. The effects of oil pollution on Antarctic benthic diatom communities over 5 years.

    PubMed

    Polmear, R; Stark, J S; Roberts, D; McMinn, A

    2015-01-15

    Although considered pristine, Antarctica has not been impervious to hydrocarbon pollution. Antarctica's history is peppered with oil spills and numerous abandoned waste disposal sites. Both spill events and constant leakages contribute to previous and current sources of pollution into marine sediments. Here we compare the response of the benthic diatom communities over 5 years to exposure to a commonly used standard synthetic lubricant oil, an alternative lubricant marketed as more biodegradable, in comparison to a control treatment. Community composition varied significantly over time and between treatments with some high variability within contaminated treatments suggesting community stress. Both lubricants showed evidence of significant effects on community composition after 5 years even though total petroleum hydrocarbon reduction reached approximately 80% over this time period. It appears that even after 5 years toxicity remains high for both the standard and biodegradable lubricants revealing the temporal scale at which pollutants persist in Antarctica.

  17. Expected long-term survival of patients diagnosed with multiple myeloma in 2006-2010.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Hermann; Gondos, Adam; Pulte, Dianne

    2009-02-01

    New therapeutic options have led to substantial increases in survival expectations of younger patients with multiple myeloma in recent years. In the past, the impact of these innovations on long-term survival has been disclosed only with substantial delay. We aimed to derive up-to-date estimates of long-term survival expectations of concurrently diagnosed multiple myeloma patients. Using data from the 1973-2005 database of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, we employed a novel model-based projection method to project 5-and 10-year relative survival expectations of multiple myeloma patients in the United States diagnosed in 2006-2010. Preliminary empirical evaluation of the method using historical data indicated good performance. Projected 5-year relative survival for patients diagnosed in 2006-2010 below 45 years of age is 68.0%, which exceeds the most up-to-date estimates obtained from traditional cohort and period analysis by 15.5 and 7.0 percent units respectively. Ten-year relative survival projection for patients in this age group is 55.3%, exceeding the most up-to-date estimates from traditional cohort and period analysis by 19.7 and 7.4 percent units respectively. By contrast, survival projections remain much lower and hardly exceed estimates from traditional survival analysis for older patients. Patients diagnosed with multiple myeloma in 2006-2010, especially those diagnosed at younger ages, are expected to have much higher long-term survival perspectives than suggested by previously available survival statistics. PMID:19144659

  18. [Professional stress and blood pressure reactivity to stress do not predict blood pressure at 5 years].

    PubMed

    Fauvel, J P; Mpio, I; Quelin, P; Rigaud, J P; Laville, M; Ducher, M L

    2004-01-01

    High job strain has been reported to be associated with higher blood pressure. Job strain could lead to hypertension if individual perception of stress or cardiovascular reactivity to stress are high. We report the results of the first five-year follow up study, which aimed to assess the respective influences of perception of professional strain and cardiovascular reactivity to a mental stress test on BP. A cohort of 292 healthy subjects (mean +/- SEM, 38 +/- 1 years) was followed for progression to hypertension outcome which was defined as an increase in SBP or DBP higher than 7 mmHg or a DBP higher than 95 mmHg during the follow-up. The high strain (HS) group representing 20.9% of the subjects was compared with the remaining subjects (NHS). Similarly the 20.9% subjects with the highest BP stress reactivity (HR) were compared with the remaining subjects (NHR). The Kaplan-Meier survival estimates revealed that neither high job strain, nor high stress reactivity, increased incidence of progression to hypertension. Age, alcohol, salt diet, BMI, and occupation did not interfere with our results. In conclusion, high stress cardiovascular reactivity and high job strain do not appear to be major risk markers for future high BP in healthy young adults. Stress could be associated with high BP at a short term and could explain high blood pressure in a long run only in stress-sensible subjects.

  19. Behavior of 60Co and 134Cs in a Canadian Shield lake over 5 years.

    PubMed

    Bird, G A; Schwartz, W J; Motycka, M; Rosentreter, J

    1998-04-01

    Radionuclides were added to the anoxic hypolimnion of a Canadian Shield lake to simulate the nuclear fuel waste disposal scenario where radionuclides might enter the bottom waters of a lake. The radionuclides remained in the hypolimnion until lake mixing at autumn turnover after which 60Co was rapidly lost and 134Cs was slowly lost from the water. Only 0.4% of the 60Co and 0.6% of the 134Cs remained in the water at year 5. Highest concentrations occurred in periphyton and filter feeders, Holopedium gibberum and clams (Anodonata grandis grandis). From maximum annual concentrations in clam tissues, it was estimated that the availability of 60Co for uptake had a half-time (t1/2) of 835 days in the lake, whereas that for 134Cs was 780 days. Loss rate coefficients, k, for the radionuclides from taxa ranged from 0.0008 to 0.0043 day-1 (t1/2 = 161-866 days) for 60Co and from 0.0009 to 0.005 day-1 (t1/2 = 139-770 days) for 134Cs. Cobalt-60 concentrations in forage fish were low, whereas 134Cs concentrations increased over the first year or two, then slowly declined. On the basis of k values measured for forage fish, the biological half-time of 134Cs in forage fish ranged from 428 to 630 days. Maximum 134Cs concentrations in forage fish were higher following hypolimnetic addition than epilimnetic addition. Relatively high 134Cs concentrations in periphyton at year 5 point to the importance of benthic pathways in the recycling of contaminants to higher trophic levels. The presence of 134Cs in biota 5 years after the addition, long after concentrations were no longer detectable in surface waters, is evidence of the persistence of Cs in aquatic systems. The k values (or t1/2 values) for the loss of 60Co and 134Cs from water and their uptake and loss from biota can be used to establish parameter values for assessment models. The results demonstrate that assessment models should account for the release of radionuclides from sediment and their subsequent recycling in the food

  20. Behavior of 60Co and 134Cs in a Canadian Shield lake over 5 years.

    PubMed

    Bird, G A; Schwartz, W J; Motycka, M; Rosentreter, J

    1998-04-01

    Radionuclides were added to the anoxic hypolimnion of a Canadian Shield lake to simulate the nuclear fuel waste disposal scenario where radionuclides might enter the bottom waters of a lake. The radionuclides remained in the hypolimnion until lake mixing at autumn turnover after which 60Co was rapidly lost and 134Cs was slowly lost from the water. Only 0.4% of the 60Co and 0.6% of the 134Cs remained in the water at year 5. Highest concentrations occurred in periphyton and filter feeders, Holopedium gibberum and clams (Anodonata grandis grandis). From maximum annual concentrations in clam tissues, it was estimated that the availability of 60Co for uptake had a half-time (t1/2) of 835 days in the lake, whereas that for 134Cs was 780 days. Loss rate coefficients, k, for the radionuclides from taxa ranged from 0.0008 to 0.0043 day-1 (t1/2 = 161-866 days) for 60Co and from 0.0009 to 0.005 day-1 (t1/2 = 139-770 days) for 134Cs. Cobalt-60 concentrations in forage fish were low, whereas 134Cs concentrations increased over the first year or two, then slowly declined. On the basis of k values measured for forage fish, the biological half-time of 134Cs in forage fish ranged from 428 to 630 days. Maximum 134Cs concentrations in forage fish were higher following hypolimnetic addition than epilimnetic addition. Relatively high 134Cs concentrations in periphyton at year 5 point to the importance of benthic pathways in the recycling of contaminants to higher trophic levels. The presence of 134Cs in biota 5 years after the addition, long after concentrations were no longer detectable in surface waters, is evidence of the persistence of Cs in aquatic systems. The k values (or t1/2 values) for the loss of 60Co and 134Cs from water and their uptake and loss from biota can be used to establish parameter values for assessment models. The results demonstrate that assessment models should account for the release of radionuclides from sediment and their subsequent recycling in the food

  1. Survival of European patients diagnosed with myeloid malignancies: a HAEMACARE study.

    PubMed

    Maynadié, Marc; De Angelis, Roberta; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Visser, Otto; Allemani, Claudia; Tereanu, Carmen; Capocaccia, Riccardo; Giacomin, Adriano; Lutz, Jean-Michel; Martos, Carmen; Sankila, Risto; Johannesen, Tom Børge; Simonetti, Arianna; Sant, Milena

    2013-02-01

    Population-based information on the survival of patients with myeloid malignancies is rare mainly because some entities were not recognized as malignant until the publication of the third revision of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology and World Health Organization classification in 2000. In this study we report the survival of patients with myeloid malignancies, classified by updated criteria, in Europe. We analyzed 58,800 cases incident between 1995 to 2002 in 48 population-based cancer registries from 20 European countries, classified into HAEMACARE myeloid malignancy groupings. The period approach was used to estimate 5-year relative survival in 2000-2002. The relative overall survival rate was 37%, but varied significantly between the major groups: being 17% for acute myeloid leukemia, 20% for myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms, 31% for myelodysplastic syndromes and 63% for myeloproliferative neoplasms. Survival of patients with individual disease entities ranged from 90% for those with essential thrombocythemia to 4% for those with acute myeloid leukemia with multilineage dysplasia. Regional European variations in survival were conspicuous for myeloproliferative neoplasms, with survival rates being lowest in Eastern Europe. This is the first paper to present large-scale, European survival data for patients with myeloid malignancies using prognosis-based groupings of entities defined by the third revision of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology/World Health Organization classifications. Poor survival in some parts of Europe, particularly for treatable diseases such as chronic myeloid leukemia, is of concern for hematologists and public health authorities.

  2. Baseline Characteristics of the Infant Aphakia Treatment Study Population: Predicting Recognition Acuity at 4.5 Years of Age

    PubMed Central

    Hartmann, E. Eugenie; Lynn, Michael J.; Lambert, Scott R.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. To identify patient baseline characteristics that predict recognition acuity at 4.5 years of age in the Infant Aphakia Treatment Study, a study of patients with monocular infantile cataracts. Methods. We analyzed baseline characteristics of the 114 infants enrolled in the Infant Aphakia Treatment Study to determine which were most predictive of visual outcome at 4.5 years of age. All infants underwent cataract surgery between 1 and 7 months of age. Monocular acuity was assessed at 4.5 years of age by a traveling examiner using the Amblyopia Treatment Study HOTV protocol. Results. Age at cataract surgery was weakly associated with visual acuity (Spearman rank correlation coefficient = 0.19, P = 0.041) with median visual acuity better among the younger patients (28–48 days: 0.50 logMAR, 49–210 days: 1.10 logMAR, P = 0.046). Patients from families with private insurance had significantly better median visual acuity (0.60 vs. 1.40 logMAR, P = 0.0004). No other baseline characteristic revealed a significant bivariate relationship with visual acuity. A multiple linear regression relating visual acuity to all baseline characteristics demonstrated that only the availability of private insurance was statistically significant, accounting for 12% of the variance. Conclusions. This analysis concurs with previous studies that early surgery is important for good visual outcomes in patients with unilateral infantile cataracts. The fact that only one baseline variable (private insurance) contributed to the multivariate analysis, accounting for 12% of the variance, suggests that predicting visual outcome for these patients is complicated at best, and cannot be estimated from baseline characteristics alone. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00212134.) PMID:25503455

  3. Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis in Children up to 5 Years of Age in Spain: Epidemiology and Comorbidities

    PubMed Central

    Gil-Prieto, Ruth; Gonzalez-Escalada, Alba; Marín-García, Patricia; Gallardo-Pino, Carmen; Gil-de-Miguel, Angel

    2015-01-01

    Abstract This epidemiological survey in Spain estimates the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in children up to 5 year of age during a 15-year period (1997–2011). Observational retrospective survey was conducted by reviewing data of the National Surveillance System for Hospital Data, including >98% of Spanish hospitals. All hospitalizations related to RSV infection for children up to 5 years, reported during 1997–2011 period, were analyzed. Codes were selected by using the International Classification of Diseases 9th Clinical Modification 466.0–466.19, 480.1, and 079.6. A total of 326,175 and 286,007 hospital discharges for children up to 5 and 2 years of age were reported during the study period. The annual incidence was 1072 and 2413 patients per 100,000, respectively. The average length of hospital stay was 5.7 (standard deviation 8.2) days. Four hundred forty-six deaths were reported; of those, 403 occurred in children <2 years and 355 (80%) occurred in children <12 months of age. Hospitalization and mortality rates were significantly higher in boys and decrease significantly with age. The higher rate of hospitalization and mortality rates were found in the first year of life. Annual average cost for National Health Care System was € 47 M with a mean hospitalization cost of €2162. The average length of hospitalization and costs were significantly higher in high-risk children. RSV infections in children up to 5 year of age still pose a significant health threat in Spain, especially in the infants. The development of preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic guidelines focused in children with comorbidities may help reduce the hospital and economic burden of the disease. PMID:26020386

  4. Size-dependent survival of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in summer: effects of water temperature and stream flow.

    PubMed

    Xu, C L; Letcher, B H; Nislow, K H

    2010-06-01

    A 5 year individual-based data set was used to estimate size-specific survival rates in a wild brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis population in a stream network encompassing a mainstem and three tributaries (1.5-6 m wetted width), western Massachusetts, U.S.A. The relationships between survival in summer and temperature and flow metrics derived from continuous monitoring data were then tested. Increased summer temperatures significantly reduced summer survival rates for S. fontinalis in almost all size classes in all four sites throughout the network. In contrast, extreme low summer flows reduced survival of large fish, but only in small tributaries, and had no significant effects on fish in smaller size classes in any location. These results provide direct evidence of a link between season-specific survival and environmental factors likely to be affected by climate change and have important consequences for the management of both habitats and populations.

  5. Methow River Studies, Washington: abundance estimates from Beaver Creek and the Chewuch River screw trap, methodology testing in the Whitefish Island side channel, and survival and detection estimates from hatchery fish releases, 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martens, Kyle D.; Fish, Teresa M.; Watson, Grace A.; Connolly, Patrick J.

    2014-01-01

    , leaving one large pool near the bottom of the side channel and several shallow isolated pools that may or may not go dry. In seasonally connected side channels, juvenile salmonid survival in pools less than 100 cm average depth was lower than in pools greater than 100 cm average depth (Martens and Connolly, 2014). In this report, we document our field work and analysis completed in 2013. During 2013, USGS sampling efforts were focused on resampling of three reaches in Beaver Creek, testing methodology in the Whitefish Island side channel, conducting hatchery survival estimates, and operating a screw trap on the Chewuch River (funded by Yakama Nation; fig. 1). The Beaver Creek sampling effort was a revisit of three index sites sampled continuously from 2004 to 2007 to look at the fish response to barrier removal. Methodology testing in Whitefish Island side channel was done to determine the best method for evaluating fish populations after restoration efforts in side channels (previous sampling methods were determined to be ineffective after pools were deepened). Hatchery survival estimates were completed to monitor fish survival in the Methow and Columbia Rivers, while the screw trap was operated to estimate migrating fish populations in the Chewuch River and track passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. In addition, we maintained a network of PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTIS), assisted Reclamation with fish removal events associated with stream restoration (two people for 9 days; 14 percent of summer field season), and conducted a stream metabolism study designed to help parameterize and calibrate the stream productivity model (Bellmore and others, 2014) with model validation.

  6. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  7. Gender differences in stomach cancer survival in Osaka, Japan: analyses using relative survival model.

    PubMed

    Sato, Naomi; Ito, Yuri; Ioka, Akiko; Tanaka, Masahiro; Tsukuma, Hideaki

    2009-10-01

    Relative 5-year survival for stomach cancer has increased gradually in Osaka for more than two decades, while women show a small but consistently lower survival for it. We analyzed gender differences in stomach cancer survival, using relative survival model proposed by Dickman et al. Study subjects were reported stomach cancer cases diagnosed in 1975-99. We estimated the excess hazard ratios (EHRs) of death using Poisson's regression model. The crude EHR for women was 1.12 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-1.14] in comparison with men. After adjustments for year and age at diagnosis, the EHR for women decreased to 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05-1.09), and furthermore, it reached to an insignificant level of 1.02 (95% CI: 0.99-1.04) after an additional adjustment for the extent of disease (localized, regional, distant and unknown). With further adjustments by histological type (intestinal, diffuse and others/unknown), method of detection (screening or not) and treatment (surgery or not), the EHR decreased to 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94-0.99), significantly lower than the unity. These results indicate that the lower stomach cancer survival among women was attributable mainly to more advanced stages among women. The survival for women would have been a little better than for men if prognostic factors for stomach cancer had been comparable between the sexes. Inequality by the gender in taking screening, medical examination or treatment for stomach cancer was suggested to exist in Osaka, Japan.

  8. Ready, Set, Grow! Health Education for 3-5 Year Olds.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Paula J.

    Intended for use in family day care, preschool centers, professional preparation institutions, and in homes, this comprehensive health education curriculum for 3- through 5-year-old children contains units designed to sequentially teach concepts about physical health, mental health, family living, and safety. Contents include the following…

  9. The 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology 1981. Source Materials Volume 2.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Science Foundation, Washington, DC.

    This is the second of two volumes of source documents commissioned by the National Science Foundation in preparing the second 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology for transmission to the Congress. This volume consists of the views of individuals selected by the Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy of the American Association for…

  10. Behavior Problems at 5 Years of Age and Maternal Mental Health in Autism and Intellectual Disability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard P.; Emerson, Eric; Berridge, Damon M.; Lancaster, Gillian A.

    2011-01-01

    We examined child behavior problems and maternal mental health in a British population-representative sample of 5 year-old children with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD), controlling for the presence of an intellectual disability (ID). Behavior problems were significantly higher in children with ASD with/out ID compared to typically developing…

  11. Changes in Exercise Capacity of Cardiac Asymptomatic Hereditary Hemochromatosis Subjects over 5-Year Follow up

    PubMed Central

    Shizukuda, Yukitaka; Smith, Kevin P.; Tripodi, Dorothy J.; Arena, Ross; Yau, Yu-Ying; Bolan, Charles D.; Waclawiw, Myron A.; Leitman, Susan F.; Rosing, Douglas R.

    2012-01-01

    Objective A long-term effect of hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) on aerobic exercise capacity (AEC) has not been well described. Design Forty-three HH and 21 volunteer control (VC) subjects who were asymptomatic underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing using the Bruce protocol. AEC was assessed with minute ventilation (VE), oxygen uptake (VO2), and carbon dioxide production (VCO2) at baseline (BL) at a 5-year follow up (5Y) assessment. A paired t-test was used for analyses of normality data; otherwise, a Wilcoxon singed rank sum test was used. Results Thirty-three HH subjects and 18 VC subjects returned for a repeat CPX at 5Y (80% overall return rate). At 5Y, AEC was not different between the two groups. As compared with BL measurements, exercise time, peak VO2, and the VE/VCO2 slope did not differ statistically at 5Y between both groups. Iron depletion by phlebotomy for 5 years did not significantly affect AEC in newly diagnosed HH subjects at baseline (n=14) and cardiac arrhythmias during exercise tended to decrease after 5 years of therapy in this group. Conclusions The AEC of asymptomatic HH subjects treated with conventional therapy is not statistically affected by the disease over a 5-year period. PMID:22311055

  12. A Case Series of Marijuana Exposures in Pediatric Patients Less than 5 Years of Age

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, George Sam; Narang, Sandeep K.; Wells, Kathryn; Chuang, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Objective: In Colorado, there has been a large increase in medical marijuana dispensaries and licenses for the use of medical marijuana over the past year. This is a retrospective case series of marijuana exposures that have presented to the emergency department (ED) in children less than 5 years of age. Methods: We performed a retrospective chart…

  13. Verbal Competence in Narrative Retelling in 5-Year-Olds with Unilateral Cleft Lip and Palate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klintö, Kristina; Salameh, Eva-Kristina; Lohmander, Anette

    2015-01-01

    Background: Research regarding expressive language performance in children born with cleft palate is sparse. The relationship between articulation/phonology and expressive language skills also needs to be further explored. Aims: To investigate verbal competence in narrative retelling in 5-year-old children born with unilateral cleft lip and palate…

  14. Structural Priming as Learning: Evidence from Mandarin-Learning 5-Year-Olds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsu, Dong-Bo

    2014-01-01

    Three experiments on structural priming in Mandarin-speaking 5-year-olds were conducted to test the priming as implicit learning hypothesis. It describes a learning mechanism that acts on a shared abstract syntactic representation in response to linguistic input using an equi-biased Mandarin SVO-"ba" alternation. The first two…

  15. Delayed refractory hyperventilation following endoscopic third ventriculostomy in a 5-year-old boy.

    PubMed

    Merola, J; Liang, E; Hoskins, J; Balakrishnan, V; Gan, P

    2016-09-01

    We present the case of a 5-year-old boy who developed a delayed onset intractable hyperventilation following endoscopic third ventriculostomy. The proposed aetiology of this exceptionally rare phenomenon is discussed. To our knowledge, previous cases have only been reported in the adult population.

  16. A Multiple-Data Analysis of the 3.5-Year Development of EFL Student Writers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sasaki, Miyuki

    2004-01-01

    The present study investigated the changes in Japanese students English writing behaviors over a 3.5-year period using multiple data sources including written texts, videotaped writing behaviors, and stimulated-recall protocols. Data from student interviews supplemented the analyses. Because 6 (henceforth, English as a second language [ESL]…

  17. The Dynamics of an Online Knowledge Building Community: A 5-Year Longitudinal Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Myllari, Jarkko; Ahlberg, Mauri; Dillon, Patrick

    2010-01-01

    This paper reports a 5-year design experiment on cumulative knowledge building as part of an international project. Through a longitudinal study and analysis of cumulative research data, we sought to answer the question, "what happened and why in knowledge building?" Research data constitute messages which participants have written into a shared…

  18. Influence of Emotional Facial Expressions on 3-5-Year-Olds' Face Recognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freitag, Claudia; Schwarzer, Gudrun

    2011-01-01

    Three experiments examined 3- and 5-year-olds' recognition of faces in constant and varied emotional expressions. Children were asked to identify repeatedly presented target faces, distinguishing them from distractor faces, during an immediate recognition test and during delayed assessments after 10 min and one week. Emotional facial expression…

  19. 24 CFR 903.6 - What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan? 903.6 Section 903.6 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban Development (Continued) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR PUBLIC AND INDIAN...

  20. How Do 5-Year-Olds Understand Questions? Differences in Languages across Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauerland, Uli; Grohmann, Kleanthes K.; Guasti, Maria Teresa; Andelkovic, Darinka; Argus, Reili; Armon-Lotem, Sharon; Arosio, Fabrizio; Avram, Larisa; Costa, João; Dabašinskiene, Ineta; de López, Kristine; Gatt, Daniela; Grech, Helen; Haman, Ewa; van Hout, Angeliek; Hrzica, Gordana; Kainhofer, Judith; Kamandulyte-Merfeldiene, Laura; Kunnari, Sari; Kovacevic, Melita; Kuvac Kraljevic, Jelena; Lipowska, Katarzyna; Mejias, Sandrine; Popovic, Maša; Ruzaite, Jurate; Savic, Maja; Sevcenco, Anca; Varlokosta, Spyridoula; Varnava, Marina; Yatsushiro, Kazuko

    2016-01-01

    The comprehension of constituent questions is an important topic for language acquisition research and for applications in the diagnosis of language impairment. This article presents the results of a study investigating the comprehension of different types of questions by 5-year-old, typically developing children across 19 European countries, 18…

  1. The Development of Regulatory Functions from Birth to 5 Years: Insights from Premature Infants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feldman, Ruth

    2009-01-01

    This study examined physiological, emotional, and attentional regulatory functions as predictors of self-regulation in 125 infants followed 7 times from birth to 5 years. Physiological regulation was assessed by neonatal vagal tone and sleep-wake cyclicity; emotion regulation by response to stress at 3, 6, and 12 months; and attention regulation…

  2. 77 FR 5491 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Initiation of 5-Year Review for Sei Whales

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-03

    ... limited to, population trends, distribution, abundance, demographics, and genetics; (2) habitat conditions...; Initiation of 5-Year Review for Sei Whales AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic... Comment'' icon on the right of that line. Mail or hand-delivery: Angela Somma, National Marine...

  3. Effectiveness of Multipurpose Unit Early Classroom Intervention Program for 4-5-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Celebioglu Morkoc, Ozlem; Aktan Acar, Ebru

    2014-01-01

    This research examined the effectiveness of Multipurpose Unit Early Classroom Intervention Program (MUECIP) prepared for 4-5-year-old (48-60 months) children whose development is at risk because of their families' socioeconomic conditions. The research adopted a preliminary test-final test control group trial model. The research participants…

  4. Predictors of ADHD Persistence in Girls at 5-Year Follow-Up

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mick, Eric; Byrne, Deirdre; Fried, Ronna; Monuteaux, Michael; Faraone, Stephen V.; Biederman, Joseph

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The main aim of this study was to examine the age-dependent remission from ADHD in girls transitioning through childhood into adolescence and early adulthood. Method: We conducted a 5-year prospective follow-up study of 123 girls with ADHD and 106 non-ADHD control girls aged between 6 and 17 years at ascertainment. ADHD was considered…

  5. Episodic Memory and Episodic Foresight in 3- and 5-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayne, Harlene; Gross, Julien; McNamee, Stephanie; Fitzgibbon, Olivia; Tustin, Karen

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, we examined the development of episodic memory and episodic foresight. Three- and 5-year-olds were interviewed individually using a personalised timeline that included photographs of them at different points in their life. After constructing the timeline with the experimenter, each child was asked to discuss a number of…

  6. Secondary Science Teachers' Use of Technology in the Classroom during Their First 5 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bang, EunJin; Luft, Julie A.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the technology use of beginning secondary science teachers and explored factors facilitating or inhibiting their use of technology. The researchers collected and analyzed interviews and observational data from 95 teachers over a 5-year period. The results show that teachers used PowerPoint the most and other software the least…

  7. Introducing Engineering in Elementary Education: A 5-Year Study of Teachers and Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diefes-Dux, Heidi A.

    2015-01-01

    Engineering, when integrated into K-12 education, may offer a number of potential student learning and future success benefits. In a 5-year study, four cohorts of elementary teachers of grades 2 to 4 in a single US school district were provided with teacher professional development with engineering education. Teachers were prepared to teach…

  8. 76 FR 50447 - Endangered and Threatened Species; 5-Year Reviews for 5 Evolutionarily Significant Units of...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-15

    ..., Oregon, Washington, and Idaho (75 FR 13082). Both ESUs and DPSs are treated as ``species'' under the ESA... FR 37204). The 5-year review reports prepared by the Southwest Region, the Southwest Science Center's... since they were previously reviewed in 2005 (70 FR 37160) and 2006 (71 FR 834), respectively....

  9. 76 FR 50448 - Endangered and Threatened Species; 5-Year Reviews for 17 Evolutionarily Significant Units and...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-15

    ... Regional Offices announced initiation of 5-year reviews of Pacific salmon ESUs and steelhead DPSs (75 FR...-promulgating the threatened listing for Oregon Coast coho salmon (76 FR 35755). This notice also addresses the... Salmon and Steelhead in Listing Determinations under the ESA (70 FR 37204) to complete this...

  10. Effects of A 2.5-Year Campus-Wide Intervention to Reduce College Drinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seo, Dong-Chul; Owens, Dee; Gassman, Ruth; Kingori, Caroline

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The present study reports on the results of a 2.5-year college-wide, coordinated intervention that was implemented from June 2007 to December 2009 to reduce the amount and frequency of students' alcohol consumption. Design: Quasi-experimental study using a one-group (freshmen living on campus) pretest/posttest design ("N"…

  11. 24 CFR 903.6 - What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false What information must a PHA provide in the 5-Year Plan? 903.6 Section 903.6 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS RELATING TO HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT (CONTINUED) OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR PUBLIC AND INDIAN HOUSING, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT...

  12. Cognitive and Temperament Clusters in 3- to 5-Year-Old Children with Aggressive Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sakimura, Jean N.; Dang, Michelle T.; Ballard, Kelley B.; Hansen, Robin L.

    2008-01-01

    Background: This study assessed the co-occurrence of cognitive problems and difficult temperament characteristics in children aged 3 to 5 years exhibiting aggressive behavior. Methods: Thirty-one children with high ratings on the Aggressive Behavior subscale of the Achenbach Child Behavior Checklist or Teacher Report Form were recruited from a…

  13. Story Contexts Increase Susceptibility to the DRM Illusion in 5-Year-Olds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dewhurst, Stephen A.; Pursglove, Rhian C.; Lewis, Charlie

    2007-01-01

    False recognition in children aged 5, 8, and 11 years was investigated using the standard version of the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) procedure and an alternative version in which the DRM stimuli were embedded in stories designed to emphasize their overall theme. Relative to the 8- and 11-year-olds, the 5-year-olds falsely recognized fewer…

  14. Early Book Stages, 0-5 Years [and] Creciendo con Libros (Growing [up] with Books). [Videotape.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holguin, Roxanna

    Using a lighthearted and simple approach, this 23-minute videotape in English and Spanish versions presents interactions between parents and children while reading books. The children in the videotape range in age from 0 to 5 years. The video is introduced by scenes of children enjoying books while narration discussing the impact of reading to…

  15. Hands as Companions of the Mind: Essential Practical Life for the 5-Year-Old

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilder, Sharon Allen

    2012-01-01

    Numerous observations in Montessori classrooms led veteran Montessorians Pamela W. Trumble and Eleni Bokas to the conclusion that a universal need exists to bring integrity back to Practical Life, especially for 5-year-olds. Maria Montessori's observations over a century ago revealed the importance of Practical Life and its relationship to the…

  16. Wakefulness (Not Sleep) Promotes Generalization of Word Learning in 2.5-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Werchan, Denise M.; Gómez, Rebecca L.

    2014-01-01

    Sleep enhances generalization in adults, but this has not been examined in toddlers. This study examined the impact of napping versus wakefulness on the generalization of word learning in toddlers when the contextual background changes during learning. Thirty 2.5-year-old children (M = 32.94, SE = 0.46) learned labels for novel categories of…

  17. Developmental Norms of Children Aged 2 1/2-5 Years: A Pilot Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muralidharan, Rajalakshmi

    1969-01-01

    The purpose of this pilot study, aside from collection of developmental data on 38 nursery school children aged 2 1/2 to 5 years, was (1) to develop, modify and adapt the testing equipment used in Gesell's Developmental Schedule, in the field of motor, adaptive, language, and personal-social development; (2) to develop elaborate, exhaustive,…

  18. Therapeutic Community in a California Prison: Treatment Outcomes after 5 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Sheldon X.; Roberts, Robert E. L.; McCollister, Kathryn E.

    2011-01-01

    Therapeutic communities have become increasingly popular among correctional agencies with drug-involved offenders. This quasi-experimental study followed a group of inmates who participated in a prison-based therapeutic community in a California state prison, with a comparison group of matched offenders, for more than 5 years after their initial…

  19. Ensemble Perception of Size in 4-5-Year-Old Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweeny, Timothy D.; Wurnitsch, Nicole; Gopnik, Alison; Whitney, David

    2015-01-01

    Groups of objects are nearly everywhere we look. Adults can perceive and understand the "gist" of multiple objects at once, engaging ensemble-coding mechanisms that summarize a group's overall appearance. Are these group-perception mechanisms in place early in childhood? Here, we provide the first evidence that 4-5-year-old children use…

  20. Deferiprone versus deferoxamine in sickle cell disease: results from a 5-year long-term Italian multi-center randomized clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Calvaruso, Giusi; Vitrano, Angela; Di Maggio, Rosario; Ballas, Samir; Steinberg, Martin H; Rigano, Paolo; Sacco, Massimiliano; Telfer, Paul; Renda, Disma; Barone, Rita; Maggio, Aurelio

    2014-12-01

    Blood transfusion and iron chelation currently represent a supportive therapy to manage anemia, vasculopathy and vaso-occlusion crises in Sickle-Cell-Disease. Here we describe the first 5-year long-term randomized clinical trial comparing Deferiprone versus Deferoxamine in patients with Sickle-Cell-Disease. The results of this study show that Deferiprone has the same effectiveness as Deferoxamine in decreasing body iron burden, measured as repeated measurements of serum ferritin concentrations on the same patient over 5-years and analyzed according to the linear mixed-effects model (LMM) (p=0.822). Both chelators are able to decrease, significantly, serum ferritin concentrations, during 5-years, without any effect on safety (p=0.005). Moreover, although the basal serum ferritin levels were higher in transfused compared with non-transfused group (p=0.031), the changes over time in serum ferritin levels were not statistically significantly different between transfused and non-transfused cohort of patients (p=0.389). Kaplan-Meier curve, during 5-years of study, suggests that Deferiprone does not alter survival in comparison with Deferoxamine (p=0.38). In conclusion, long-term iron chelation therapy with Deferiprone was associated with efficacy and safety similar to that of Deferoxamine. Therefore, in patients with Sickle-Cell-Disease, Deferiprone may represent an effective long-term treatment option. PMID:24814618

  1. Extended Long-Term (5 Years) Outcomes of Triangle Tilt Surgery in Obstetric Brachial Plexus Injury

    PubMed Central

    Nath, Rahul K; Somasundaram, Chandra

    2013-01-01

    Objective: We evaluated the "extended" long-term (5 years) functional outcomes in obstetric brachial plexus injury (OBPI) patients, who underwent triangle tilt surgery between February 2005 and January 2008. Methods: Twenty two children (9 girls and 13 boys, mean age at surgery was 5.8 years; ranging 2.1-11.8 years old), who initially presented with medial rotation contracture and scapula deformity secondary to obstetric brachial plexus injury were included in this study. Functional movements were evaluated pre-operatively, and 5 years following triangle tilt surgery by modified Mallet scale. Results: Here, we report long-term (5 years) follow-up of triangle tilt surgery for 22 OBPI patients. Upper extremity functional movements such as, external rotation (2.5±0.6 to 4.1±0.8, p<0.0001), hand-to-spine (2.6±0.6 to 3.4±1.1, p<0.005), hand-to-neck (2.7±0.7 to 4.3±0.7, p<0.0001), hand-to-mouth (2.3±0.9 (92º±33) to 4.2±0.5 (21º±16), p<0.0001), and supination (2.6±1.1 (-8.2º ±51) to 4.1±0.7 (61±32)) were significantly improved (p<0.0001), and maintained over the extended long-term (5 years). Total modified Mallet functional score was also shown to improve from 14.1±2.7 to 20.3±2.5. Conclusions: The triangle tilt surgery improved all shoulder functions significantly, and maintained over the extended long-term (5 years) in these patients. PMID:23730369

  2. Dopaminergic therapy and subthalamic stimulation in Parkinson's disease: a review of 5-year reports.

    PubMed

    Romito, Luigi M; Albanese, Alberto

    2010-11-01

    The long-term efficacy and safety of deep brain stimulation (DBS) implant for Parkinson's disease (PD) is described in several recent papers. This procedure has been reported to permit a stable reduction of dopaminergic therapy requirements for up to 5 years, although some expectation of deterioration in non-dopaminergic signs has been recently stated. Our aim is to perform a literature-based review of papers available describing long-term post-operative follow-up after a bilateral implant for subthalamic DBS (STN-DBS). Only peer-reviewed published papers with a post-operative follow-up of at least 5 years were considered. Clinical outcome, disease progression and side effects were assessed at baseline and 2 (or 3 years) and 5 years after surgery. Seven papers were included in the review. A total of 238 patients were analyzed. STN-DBS was confirmed to be an effective treatment for selected patients with PD. In all studies, off-related motor symptoms improved dramatically, compared with pre-implant, at 2 (or 3, according to the study) years and this result persisted at 5-year evaluations. Antiparkinsonian drug reductions, improvements in motor fluctuations and dyskinesias, functional measures and the progression of underlying PD were also reported in all series. Some axial scores, in particular postural stability and speech, improved transiently. Persisting adverse effects included eyelid opening apraxia, weight gain, psychiatric disorders, depression, dysarthria, dyskinesias, and apathy. The present review of the 5-year observations confirms that STN-DBS is a powerful method in the management of PD, but its long-term effects must be thoroughly assessed.

  3. Development and Validation of a Model to Predict 5-Year Risk of Death without ESRD among Older Adults with CKD

    PubMed Central

    Katz, Ronit; De Boer, Ian H.; Peralta, Carmen A.; Fried, Linda F.; Siscovick, David S.; Rifkin, Dena E.; Hirsch, Calvin; Cummings, Steven R.; Harris, Tamara B.; Kritchevsky, Stephen B.; Sarnak, Mark J.; Shlipak, Michael G.; Ix, Joachim H.

    2015-01-01

    Background and objectives CKD is associated with mortality. Accurate prediction tools for mortality may guide clinical decision-making, particularly among elderly persons with CKD. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A prediction equation was developed for 5-year risk of mortality among participants with CKD in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Sixteen candidate predictor variables were explored, which included demographics, physical examination measures, comorbidity, medication use, and kidney function measures (eGFR calculated from serum creatinine and the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation and the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio). Models were developed using Cox regression and evaluated using c statistics. A final parsimonious model was externally validated in an independent cohort of community-living elders with CKD in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. Results The development cohort included 828 participants who had a mean age of 80 (±5.6) years and an eGFR of 47 (±11) ml/min per 1.73 m2, and median albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 13 (interquartile range 6–51) mg/g. The validation cohort included 789 participants who had a mean age of 74 (±2.8) years and an eGFR of 50 (±9) ml/min per 1.73 m2, and median albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 13 (interquartile range 6–42) mg/g. The final model for 5-year mortality risk included age, sex, race, eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, smoking, diabetes mellitus, and history of heart failure and stroke (c statistic=0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 0.74). When a point-based system was assigned for each of nine variables in the equation, the estimated risk of death within 5 years ranged from 3.8% among participants with the lowest scores to 83.6% among participants with nine points. The model performed fair in external validation (c statistic=0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.74). Conclusions A simple prediction tool using nine readily available clinical variables can assist

  4. Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

    2015-12-01

    Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

  5. Situational analysis and future directions of AYUSH: An assessment through 5-year plans of India.

    PubMed

    Samal, Janmejaya

    2015-01-01

    AYUSH is an acronym for Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy. These are the six indigenous systems of medicine practiced in India. A department called Department of Indian System of medicine was created in March 1995 and renamed to AYUSH in November 2003 with a focus to provide increased attention for the development of these systems. Very recently, in 2014, a separate ministry was created under the union Government of India, which is headed by a minister of state. Planning regarding these systems of medicine was a part of 5-year planning process since 1951. Since then many developments have happened in this sector albeit the system was struggling with a great degree of uncertainty at the time of 1(st)5-year plan. A progressive path of development could be observed since the first to the 12(th)5-year plan. It was up to the 7(th)plan the growth was little sluggish and from 8(th)plan onward the growth took its pace and several innovative development processes could be observed thereafter. The system is gradually progressing ahead with a vision to be a globally accepted system, as envisaged in 11(th)5-year plan. Currently, AYUSH system is a part of mainstream health system implemented under National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). NRHM came into play in 2005 but implemented at ground level in 2006 and introduced the scheme of "Mainstreaming of AYUSH and revitalization of local health traditions" to strengthen public health services. This scheme is currently in operation in its second phase, since 1(st)April 2012, with the 12(th)5-year plan. The scheme was primarily brought in to operation with three important objectives; choice of treatment system to the patients, strengthen facility functionally and strengthen the implementation of national health programmes, however, in some places it seems to be a forced medical pluralism owing to a top-down approach by the union government without considerable involvement of the concerned community. In this

  6. Situational analysis and future directions of AYUSH: An assessment through 5-year plans of India

    PubMed Central

    Samal, Janmejaya

    2015-01-01

    AYUSH is an acronym for Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy. These are the six indigenous systems of medicine practiced in India. A department called Department of Indian System of medicine was created in March 1995 and renamed to AYUSH in November 2003 with a focus to provide increased attention for the development of these systems. Very recently, in 2014, a separate ministry was created under the union Government of India, which is headed by a minister of state. Planning regarding these systems of medicine was a part of 5-year planning process since 1951. Since then many developments have happened in this sector albeit the system was struggling with a great degree of uncertainty at the time of 1st5-year plan. A progressive path of development could be observed since the first to the 12th5-year plan. It was up to the 7thplan the growth was little sluggish and from 8thplan onward the growth took its pace and several innovative development processes could be observed thereafter. The system is gradually progressing ahead with a vision to be a globally accepted system, as envisaged in 11th5-year plan. Currently, AYUSH system is a part of mainstream health system implemented under National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). NRHM came into play in 2005 but implemented at ground level in 2006 and introduced the scheme of “Mainstreaming of AYUSH and revitalization of local health traditions” to strengthen public health services. This scheme is currently in operation in its second phase, since 1stApril 2012, with the 12th5-year plan. The scheme was primarily brought in to operation with three important objectives; choice of treatment system to the patients, strengthen facility functionally and strengthen the implementation of national health programmes, however, in some places it seems to be a forced medical pluralism owing to a top-down approach by the union government without considerable involvement of the concerned community. In this study, the

  7. Situational analysis and future directions of AYUSH: An assessment through 5-year plans of India.

    PubMed

    Samal, Janmejaya

    2015-01-01

    AYUSH is an acronym for Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy. These are the six indigenous systems of medicine practiced in India. A department called Department of Indian System of medicine was created in March 1995 and renamed to AYUSH in November 2003 with a focus to provide increased attention for the development of these systems. Very recently, in 2014, a separate ministry was created under the union Government of India, which is headed by a minister of state. Planning regarding these systems of medicine was a part of 5-year planning process since 1951. Since then many developments have happened in this sector albeit the system was struggling with a great degree of uncertainty at the time of 1(st)5-year plan. A progressive path of development could be observed since the first to the 12(th)5-year plan. It was up to the 7(th)plan the growth was little sluggish and from 8(th)plan onward the growth took its pace and several innovative development processes could be observed thereafter. The system is gradually progressing ahead with a vision to be a globally accepted system, as envisaged in 11(th)5-year plan. Currently, AYUSH system is a part of mainstream health system implemented under National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). NRHM came into play in 2005 but implemented at ground level in 2006 and introduced the scheme of "Mainstreaming of AYUSH and revitalization of local health traditions" to strengthen public health services. This scheme is currently in operation in its second phase, since 1(st)April 2012, with the 12(th)5-year plan. The scheme was primarily brought in to operation with three important objectives; choice of treatment system to the patients, strengthen facility functionally and strengthen the implementation of national health programmes, however, in some places it seems to be a forced medical pluralism owing to a top-down approach by the union government without considerable involvement of the concerned community. In this

  8. Survival of Korean Huntington’s Disease Patients

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Han-Joon; Shin, Chae-Won; Jeon, Beomseok; Park, Hyeyoung

    2016-01-01

    Objective The survival of Huntington’s disease (HD) patients is reported to be 15–20 years. However, most studies on the survival of HD have been conducted in patients without genetic confirmation with the possible inclusion of non-HD patients, and all studies have been conducted in Western countries. The survival of patients with HD in East Asia, where its prevalence is 10–50-fold lower compared with Western populations, has not yet been reported. Methods Forty-seven genetically confirmed Korean HD patients from independent families were included in this retrospective medical record review study. Results The mean age at onset among the 47 patients was 46.1 ± 14.0 years. At the time of data collection, 25 patients had died, and these patients had a mean age at death of 57.8 ± 13.7 years. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the median survival from onset in the 47 patients was 14.5 years (95% confidence interval: 12.3–16.6). None of the following factors were associated with the survival time in the univariate Cox regression analysis: gender, age at onset, normal CAG repeat size, mutant CAG repeat size, and the absence or presence of non-motor symptoms at onset. Conclusion This is the first Asian study on survival in HD patients. Survival in Korean HD patients may be shorter than that reported for Western populations, or at least is in the lower range of expected survival. A larger longitudinal observation study is needed to confirm the results found in this study. PMID:27667189

  9. 24 CFR 903.19 - When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? 903.19 Section 903.19 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS... is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? A PHA may adopt its 5-Year Plan or...

  10. 24 CFR 903.19 - When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? 903.19 Section 903.19 Housing and Urban Development Regulations... is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? A PHA may adopt its 5-Year Plan or...

  11. 24 CFR 903.19 - When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? 903.19 Section 903.19 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS... is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? A PHA may adopt its 5-Year Plan or...

  12. 24 CFR 903.19 - When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? 903.19 Section 903.19 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS... is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? A PHA may adopt its 5-Year Plan or...

  13. 24 CFR 903.19 - When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false When is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? 903.19 Section 903.19 Housing and Urban Development REGULATIONS... is the 5-Year Plan or Annual Plan ready for submission to HUD? A PHA may adopt its 5-Year Plan or...

  14. 78 FR 33113 - Publication of the 5-Year Research and Evaluation Strategic Plan Program Years 2012-2017

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-03

    ... Employment and Training Administration Publication of the 5-Year Research and Evaluation Strategic Plan... Administration's (USDOL/ ETA) 5-Year Research and Evaluation Strategic Plan for 2012-2017. Under Section 171 of... a strategic plan for pilots, demonstrations, and research over the next 5 years in areas related...

  15. Synovial Sarcoma in the Foot of a 5-Year-Old ChildA Case Report.

    PubMed

    Lepow, Gary M; Grimmer, Daniel L; Lemar, Onya V; Bridges, Evan A

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this case report is to present a rare finding of synovial sarcoma in a 5-year-old child. Most soft-tissue masses of the foot are too often presumed to be small and benign; therefore, compared with soft-tissue sarcomas, they are difficult to clinically differentiate and treat. A 5-year-old girl presented with a painful lesion that was diagnosed as synovial sarcoma after an excisional biopsy was performed. This was an unexpected finding of synovial sarcoma involving the tibialis posterior tendon of her right foot. The patient presented with an 8-month history of tenderness and an antalgic gait. We would like to encourage that all soft-tissue tumors of the foot be preoperatively evaluated with the aid of diagnostic imaging so that a well-planned biopsy assessment can be performed, with adequate margins excised.

  16. Surveillance of lymphatic filariasis 5 years after stopping mass drug administration in Menoufiya Governorate, Egypt.

    PubMed

    Moustafa, M A; Thabet, H S; Saad, G A; El-Setouhy, M; Mehrez, M; Hamdy, D M

    2014-05-01

    The World Health Organization recommends that before lymphatic filariasis elimination in an area can be confirmed, an additional survey should be performed at least 5 years after stopping mass drug administration. The current study aimed to determine the status of lymphatic filariasis 5 years after cessation ofthe mass drug administration in 3 sentinel Egyptian villages in Menoufiya Governorate. The rapid immunochromatographic card test (ICT) and a new commercial antibody detection kit (CELISA®) were used. All 1321 primary-school children aged 6-7 years old were ICT negative but 27 children were antibody positive. All households surveyed in one village with the highest antibody prevalence were ICT negative, indicating an absence of lymphatic filariasis. The CELISA antibody kit needs more standardization and development to be useful under field conditions. We conclude that lymphatic filariasis is no longer a public health problem in these villages and other villages with similar epidemiological conditions.

  17. Synovial Sarcoma in the Foot of a 5-Year-Old ChildA Case Report.

    PubMed

    Lepow, Gary M; Grimmer, Daniel L; Lemar, Onya V; Bridges, Evan A

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this case report is to present a rare finding of synovial sarcoma in a 5-year-old child. Most soft-tissue masses of the foot are too often presumed to be small and benign; therefore, compared with soft-tissue sarcomas, they are difficult to clinically differentiate and treat. A 5-year-old girl presented with a painful lesion that was diagnosed as synovial sarcoma after an excisional biopsy was performed. This was an unexpected finding of synovial sarcoma involving the tibialis posterior tendon of her right foot. The patient presented with an 8-month history of tenderness and an antalgic gait. We would like to encourage that all soft-tissue tumors of the foot be preoperatively evaluated with the aid of diagnostic imaging so that a well-planned biopsy assessment can be performed, with adequate margins excised. PMID:27489968

  18. Surveillance of lymphatic filariasis 5 years after stopping mass drug administration in Menoufiya Governorate, Egypt.

    PubMed

    Moustafa, M A; Thabet, H S; Saad, G A; El-Setouhy, M; Mehrez, M; Hamdy, D M

    2014-05-01

    The World Health Organization recommends that before lymphatic filariasis elimination in an area can be confirmed, an additional survey should be performed at least 5 years after stopping mass drug administration. The current study aimed to determine the status of lymphatic filariasis 5 years after cessation ofthe mass drug administration in 3 sentinel Egyptian villages in Menoufiya Governorate. The rapid immunochromatographic card test (ICT) and a new commercial antibody detection kit (CELISA®) were used. All 1321 primary-school children aged 6-7 years old were ICT negative but 27 children were antibody positive. All households surveyed in one village with the highest antibody prevalence were ICT negative, indicating an absence of lymphatic filariasis. The CELISA antibody kit needs more standardization and development to be useful under field conditions. We conclude that lymphatic filariasis is no longer a public health problem in these villages and other villages with similar epidemiological conditions. PMID:24952286

  19. Ethnicity and health care in cervical cancer survival: comparisons between a Filipino resident population, Filipino-Americans, and Caucasians.

    PubMed

    Redaniel, Maria Theresa; Laudico, Adriano; Mirasol-Lumague, Maria Rica; Gondos, Adam; Uy, Gemma Leonora; Toral, Jean Ann; Benavides, Doris; Brenner, Hermann

    2009-08-01

    Few studies have assessed and compared cervical cancer survival between developed and developing countries, or between ethnic groups within a country. Fewer still have addressed how much of the international or interracial survival differences can be attributed to ethnicity or health care. To determine the role of ethnicity and health care, 5-year survival of patients with cervical cancer was compared between patients in the Philippines and Filipino-Americans, who have the same ethnicity, and between Filipino-Americans and Caucasians, who have the same health care system. Cervical cancer databases from the Manila and Rizal Cancer Registries and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 13 were used. Age-adjusted 5-year survival estimates were computed and compared between the three patient groups. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, potential determinants of survival differences were examined. Overall 5-year relative survival was similar in Filipino-Americans (68.8%) and Caucasians (66.6%), but was lower for Philippine residents (42.9%). Although late stage at diagnosis explained a large proportion of the survival differences between Philippine residents and Filipino-Americans, excess mortality prevailed after adjustment for stage, age, and morphology in multivariate analysis [relative risk (RR), 2.07; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.68-2.55]. Excess mortality decreased, but persisted, when treatments were included in the multivariate models (RR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.41-2.23). A moderate, marginally significant excess mortality was found among Caucasians compared with Filipino-Americans (adjusted RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.01-1.47). The differences in cervical cancer survival between patients in the Philippines and in the United States highlight the importance of enhanced health care and access to diagnostic and treatment facilities in the Philippines.

  20. Five-year survival in EGFR-mutant metastatic lung adenocarcinoma treated with EGFR-TKIs

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Jessica J.; Cardarella, Stephanie; Lydon, Christine A.; Dahlberg, Suzanne E.; Jackman, David M.; Jänne, Pasi A.; Johnson, Bruce E.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Activating mutations in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) predict for prolonged progression-free survival in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) versus chemotherapy. Long-term survival outcomes, however, remain undefined. The objective of this study was to determine the 5-year survival in these patients, and identify clinical factors associated with overall survival (OS). Methods Patients with EGFR-mutant metastatic lung adenocarcinoma treated with erlotinib or gefitinib at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute between 2002 and 2009 were included. OS was analyzed. Results Among 137 patients, median PFS and OS were 12.1 months (95% CI, 10.2-13.5 months) and 30.9 months (95% CI, 28.2-35.7 months), respectively. Twenty patients (14.6%) were 5-year survivors. In multivariate analysis, exon 19 deletions (hazard ratio [HR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.44-0.91; P = 0.01), absence of extrathoracic (HR 0.62; 95% CI, 0.41-0.93; P = 0.02) or brain metastasis (HR 0.48; 95% CI, 0.30-0.77, P = 0.002), and not a current smoker (HR 0.23; 95% CI, 0.09-0.59; P = 0.002) were associated with prolonged OS. Age, gender, stage at diagnosis, liver or bone or adrenal metastasis, specific TKI, and line of TKI therapy were not associated with OS. Conclusions Our data suggest that the prevalence of 5-year survival among EGFR-mutant metastatic lung adenocarcinoma patients treated with erlotinib or gefitinib is 14.6%. Exon 19 deletions and absence of extrathoracic or brain metastasis are associated with prolonged survival. Based on our findings, clinicians can gain an enhanced estimation of long-term outcomes in this population. PMID:26724471

  1. Stage-specific survival and recurrence in patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma in Europe – a systematic review of the literature

    PubMed Central

    Svedman, Fernanda Costa; Pillas, Demetris; Taylor, Aliki; Kaur, Moninder; Linder, Ragnar; Hansson, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Background Given the increasing incidence in cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) and the recent changes in the treatment landscape, it is important to understand stage-specific overall and recurrence-free survival patterns in Europe. Despite publications such as EUROCARE-5, there is limited information on stage-specific survival for CMM in Europe. Method We carried out a systematic literature review to provide an up-to-date summary of stage-specific survival and recurrence-free survival patterns in patients with CMM in Europe. Studies were included if they were published in Medline during the past 12 years and included information on stage-specific survival and/or recurrence in CMM. Results Of the 8,749 studies identified, 26 studies were included, representing nine countries. Collectively, the studies covered a population of 152,422 patients and included data from 1978 to 2011. Randomized clinical trials and single-center observational studies comprised the most common study designs, including five large registry-based studies. Stage-specific information for survival and recurrence varied: 5-year overall survival: 95%–100% (stage I), 65%–92.8% (stage II), 41%–71% (stage III), and 9%–28% (stage IV); 5-year relapse-free survival was reported less frequently: 56% (stage II), and 28%–44% (stage III). Studies reporting survival by sentinel node (SN) status reported 5-year overall survival as 80%–95% for negative SN (stage I/II) and 35%–75% for positive SN (stage III) status; recurrence-free survival at 5 years: 76%–90% for negative and 35%–58% for positive SN status. Some studies included comparisons of survival by key patient sociodemographic characteristics, suggesting that these have a substantial influence on survival and recurrence estimates. Conclusion The studies identified in this review show large variations in stage-specific overall and recurrence-free survival by study type and by country. Owing to differing study designs and populations, it

  2. Equatorial Annual Oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year Modulation in NCEP Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

    2007-01-01

    An analysis is presented of the zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which have been assimilated in the Reanalysis and the Climate Prediction Center (CCP) data sets. The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the annual 12-month oscillation and Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also inferred for the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different data samples indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this periodicity of the QBO is involved in generating the oscillation. The spectral analysis shows that there is a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal winds, which could interact with the large antisymmetric A0 to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO as was shown in earlier modeling studies. According to these studies, the 30-month QBO tends to be synchronized by the equatorial Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO), and this would explain why the inferred 5-year modulation is observed to persist and is phase locked over several cycles.

  3. Calcifying cystic odontogenic tumor in a 5-year-old boy: a case report.

    PubMed

    Desai, Rajiv S; Sabnis, Rajesh; Bhuta, Bansari A; Yadav, Archana

    2015-03-01

    The calcifying cystic odontogenic tumor (CCOT), formerly known as calcifying odontogenic cyst, is a rare developmental neoplasm/cyst of odontogenic epithelial origin with considerable histopathologic diversity and variable clinical behaviour. The occurrence of CCOT in the first decade of life is very uncommon. We report an interestingly rare variant of CCOT with ameloblastomatous proliferation affecting the mandibular left posterior region associated with an impacted permanent tooth in a 5-year-old boy.

  4. King 2 2519 ATM residual gyros: Reestablishing 5 year life requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kayal, B.; Carbocci, L. J.

    1978-01-01

    The technical expertise required to assess the condition of the residual ATM 2519 Singer gyros is discussed. Past build history records, past performance characteristics, and recommendations for particular tests (which were performed by NASA personnel) are summarized. Test results are analyzed. A study of motor performance data and recommendations concerning gyro spin bearing life was performed. A method of reestablishing potential reliability of the bearing for the 5-year life requirement of the power module is also included.

  5. Increased risk of cancer after Bell's palsy: a 5-year follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Sheu, Jau-Jiuan; Keller, Joseph J; Lin, Herng-Ching

    2012-11-01

    Reactivation of latent herpes simplex virus (HSV) type I or varicella-zoster virus (VZV) has been recognized as the most common pathomechanism underlying Bell's palsy. There is also increased reactivation of HSV or VZV in patients with immunosuppressed states and in cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the risk for cancer during a 5-year follow-up period after diagnosis of Bell's palsy by using a population-based dataset in Taiwan. We used data from the "Longitudinal Health Insurance Database". We identified 2,618 patients with Bell's palsy as the study cohort and randomly selected 13,090 patients to be used as a comparison cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to compare the 5-year risk of subsequent cancer between the study and comparison cohorts. We found that the incidence of cancer was 1.55 (95 % CI 1.35-1.78) per 100 person-years for patients with Bell's palsy and 1.09 (95 % CI 1.02-1.18) per 100 person-years for comparison patients. After censoring cases that died from non-cancer causes during the follow-up period and adjusting for urbanization, monthly income, geographic region, and diabetes, the hazard ratio (HR) for cancer during the 5-year follow-up period for patients with Bell's palsy was 1.43 times that for comparison patients (95 % CI 1.22-1.73). There was a particularly increased risk of oral cancer (HR = 2.49; 95 % CI 1.54-4.03) for patients with Bell's palsy compared with the other patients. We conclude that patients with Bell's palsy were at significant risk of cancer during a 5-year follow-up period after diagnosis.

  6. Development and verification of child observation sheet for 5-year-old children.

    PubMed

    Fujimoto, Keiko; Nagai, Toshisaburo; Okazaki, Shin; Kawajiri, Mie; Tomiwa, Kiyotaka

    2014-02-01

    The aim of the study was to develop a newly devised child observation sheet (COS-5) as a scoring sheet, based on the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS), for use in the developmental evaluation of 5-year-old children, especially focusing on children with autistic features, and to verify its validity. Seventy-six children were studied. The children were recruited among participants of the Japan Children's Cohort Study, a research program implemented by the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) from 2004 to 2009. The developmental evaluation procedure was performed by doctors, clinical psychologists, and public health nurses. The COS-5 was also partly based on the Kyoto Scale of Psychological Development 2001 (Kyoto Scale 2001). Further, the Developmental Disorders Screening Questionnaire for 5-Years-Olds, PDD-Autism Society Japan Rating Scale (PARS), doctor interview questions and neurological examination for 5-year-old children, and the Draw-a-Man Test (DAM) were used as evaluation scales. Eighteen (25.4%) children were rated as Suspected, including Suspected PDD, Suspected ADHD and Suspected MR. The COS-5 was suggested to be valid with favorable reliability (α=0.89) and correlation with other evaluation scales. The COS-5 may be useful, with the following advantages: it can be performed within a shorter time frame; it facilitates the maintenance of observation quality; it facilitates sharing information with other professions; and it is reliable to identify the autistic features of 5-year-old children. In order to verify its wider applications including the screening of infants (18months to 3years old) by adjusting the items of younger age, additional study is needed. PMID:23415454

  7. A 5-year Journey with Cutis Laxa in an Indian Child: The De Barsy Syndrome Revisited

    PubMed Central

    Dutta, Abhijit; Ghosh, Sudip Kumar; Ghosh, Arghyaprasun; Roy, Sutirtha

    2016-01-01

    De Barsy syndrome (DBS), synonymously known as autosomal recessive cutis laxa type III, is an extremely rare condition clinically characterized by cutis laxa, a progeroid appearance, and ophthalmologic abnormalities. We present here an account of 5-year follow-up since the birth of an Indian boy with DBS, who had a few rare and unusual manifestations. In addition, our case probably represents the first reported case of DBS from India. PMID:26955101

  8. The prevalence of dental erosion in 5-year-old preschoolers in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

    PubMed Central

    Gopinath, Vellore Kannan

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the percentage of 5-year-old preschoolers in Sharjah, affected by dental erosion and to assess the predictors. Materials and Methods: A total of 403 5-year-old children were examined of which 48.14% (n = 194) were boys and 51.86% (n = 209) were girls; 31.27% (n = 126) were Emirati and 68.73% (n = 277) were non-Emirati Arabs. Examination of dental erosion was confined to palatal surfaces of maxillary incisors using the erosion index described in the UK National Survey of Children's Dental Health, 1993. Dental caries was charted using the World Health Organization 1997 criteria. Results: In the sample of 403 5-year-old preschoolers examined, dental erosion was apparent in 237 (58.80%) children, with 55.09% showing the dissolution of enamel and 3.72% exhibiting exposed dentin. Predictors of dental erosion as determined by logistic regression concluded that compared to Emirati citizens other Arab nationalities have 0.27 times the odds (95% confidence interval [CI] =0.18–0.42) of having tooth erosion (P < 0.05). Children with caries experience have 0.28 times the odds (95% CI = 0.16–0.51) of having tooth erosion compared to children with no caries experience (P < 0.05). Children who drink sugary or carbonated beverages have 0.30 times the odds (95% CI = 0.19–0.41) of having dental erosion compared to children who drink water (P < 0.05). Conclusions: The findings of this study indicate that 58.80% of 5-year-old preschoolers in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates, were affected by dental erosion. Caries experience and consumption of acidic drinks were associated with dental erosion. PMID:27095899

  9. Sugar-Sweetened Beverages and Weight Gain in 2- to 5-Year-Old Children

    PubMed Central

    Scharf, Rebecca J.; Demmer, Ryan T.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Although sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption has been tightly linked to weight status among older children, the data regarding these relationships in children aged 2 to 5 years have been mixed. Our objective was to evaluate longitudinal and cross-sectional relationships between SSB consumption and weight status among children aged 2 to 5 years. METHODS: We assessed SSB consumption and BMI z scores among 9600 children followed in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey—Birth Cohort, using linear and logistic regression and adjusting for race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, mother’s BMI, and television viewing. RESULTS: Higher rates of SSB consumption were associated with higher BMI z scores among children age 4 (P < .05) and 5 (P < .001) but not yet at 2 years. Children aged 5 years who drank SSB regularly (compared with infrequent/nondrinkers) had a higher odds ratio for being obese (1.43, confidence interval 1.10–1.85, P < .01). In prospective analysis, children drinking SSB at 2 years (compared with infrequent/nondrinkers) had a greater subsequent increase in BMI z score over the ensuing 2 years (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Similar to what is seen among older children, children aged 2 to 5 years drinking SSB demonstrate both prospective and cross-sectional correlations with higher BMI z score. Pediatricians and parents should discourage SSB consumption to help avoid potential unhealthy weight gain in young children. From a public health standpoint, strong consideration should be made toward policy changes leading to decreases in SSB consumption among children. PMID:23918897

  10. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVI : Survival and Transportation Effects for Migrating Snake River Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates from 1996-2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Buchanan, Rebecca A.; Skalski, John R.

    2007-12-07

    In 2005, the University of Washington developed a new statistical model to analyze the combined juvenile and adult detection histories of PIT-tagged salmon migrating through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). This model, implemented by software Program ROSTER (River-Ocean Survival and Transportation Effects Routine), has been used to estimate survival and transportation effects on large temporal and spatial scales for PIT-tagged hatchery spring and summer Chinook salmon and steelhead released in the Snake River Basin from 1996 to 2003. Those results are reported here. Annual estimates of the smolt-to-adult return ratio (SAR), juvenile inriver survival from Lower Granite to Bonneville, the ocean return probability from Bonneville to Bonneville, and adult upriver survival from Bonneville to Lower Granite are reported. Annual estimates of transport-inriver (T/I) ratios and differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) are reported on both a systemwide basis, incorporating all transport dams analyzed, and a dam-specific basis. Transportation effects are estimated only for dams where at least 5,000 tagged smolts were transported from a given upstream release group. Because few tagged hatchery steelhead were transported in these years, no transportation effects are estimated for steelhead. Performance measures include age-1-ocean adult returns for steelhead, but not for Chinook salmon. Annual estimates of SAR from Lower Granite back to Lower Granite averaged 0.71% with a standard error (SE) of 0.18% for spring Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin for tagged groups released from 1996 through 2003, omitting age-1-ocean (jack) returns. For summer Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin, the estimates of annual SAR averaged 1.15% (SE=0.31%). Only for the release years 1999 and 2000 did the Chinook SAR approach the target value of 2%, identified by the NPCC as the minimum SAR necessary for recovery. Annual estimates of SAR for hatchery steelhead from the

  11. Lung cancer survival in Norway, 1997-2011: from nihilism to optimism.

    PubMed

    Nilssen, Yngvar; Strand, Trond Eirik; Fjellbirkeland, Lars; Bartnes, Kristian; Møller, Bjørn

    2016-01-01

    We examine changes in survival and patient-, tumour- and treatment-related factors among resected and nonresected lung cancer patients, and identify subgroups with the largest and smallest survival improvements.National population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway, Statistics Norway and the Norwegian Patient Register were linked for lung cancer patients diagnosed during 1997-2011. The 1- and 5-year relative survival were estimated, and Cox proportional hazard regression, adjusted for selected patient characteristics, was used to assess prognostic factors for survival in lung cancer patients overall and stratified by resection status.We identified 34 157 patients with lung cancer. The proportion of histological diagnoses accompanied by molecular genetics testing increased from 0% to 26%, while those accompanied by immunohistochemistry increased from 8% to 26%. The 1-year relative survival among nonresected and resected patients increased from 21.7% to 34.2% and 75.4% to 91.5%, respectively. The improved survival remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, stage and histology. The largest improvements in survival occurred among resected and adenocarcinoma patients, while patients ≥80 years experienced the smallest increase.Lung cancer survival has increased considerably in Norway. The explanation is probably multifactorial, including improved attitude towards diagnostic work-up and treatment, and more accurate diagnostic testing that allows for improved selection for resection and improved treatment options. PMID:26541525

  12. Immunologic memory 5 years after meningococcal A/C conjugate vaccination in infancy.

    PubMed

    MacLennan, J; Obaro, S; Deeks, J; Lake, D; Elie, C; Carlone, G; Moxon, E R; Greenwood, B

    2001-01-01

    Infant vaccination with meningococcal conjugates may provide long-term protection against disease. Antibody levels and immunologic memory were assessed in 5-year-old Gambian children who received meningococcal A/C conjugate vaccination (MenA/C) in infancy. At 2 years, they were randomized to receive a booster of MenA/C (conjugate group), meningococcal A/C polysaccharide (MPS group), or inactivated polio vaccine (IPV group). All groups were revaccinated with 10 microg MPS at 5 years of age, as were 39 previously unvaccinated age-matched control subjects. Before revaccination, titers were higher in the conjugate and MPS groups than in control subjects (P<.001); titers for the IPV group were similar to those for control subjects. Ten days after revaccination, the conjugate and IPV groups had similar serogroup C serum bactericidal antibody titers (3421 vs. 2790, respectively). These levels were significantly higher than those in the MPS (426) and control (485) groups (P<.001). Thus, immunologic memory was sustained for > or =5 years; however, MPS challenge at 2 years interfered with a subsequent memory response.

  13. Endocrine dysfunction following traumatic brain injury: a 5-year follow-up nationwide-based study.

    PubMed

    Yang, Wei-Hsun; Chen, Pau-Chung; Wang, Ting-Chung; Kuo, Ting-Yu; Cheng, Chun-Yu; Yang, Yao-Hsu

    2016-01-01

    Post-traumatic endocrine dysfunction is a complication of traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, there is lack of long-term follow-up and large sample size studies. This study included patients suffering from TBI registered in the Health Insurance Database. Endocrine disorders were identified using the ICD codes: 244 (acquired hypothyroidism), 253 (pituitary dysfunction), 255 (disorders of the adrenal glands), 258 (polyglandular dysfunction), and 259 (other endocrine disorders) with at least three outpatient visits within 1 year or one admission diagnosis. Overall, 156,945 insured subjects were included in the final analysis. The 1- and 5-year incidence rates of post-traumatic endocrinopathies were 0.4% and 2%, respectively. The risks of developing a common endocrinopathy (p < 0.001) or pituitary dysfunction (P < 0.001) were significantly higher in patients with a TBI history. Patients with a skull bone fracture had a higher risk of developing pituitary dysfunction at the 1-year follow up (p value < 0.001). At the 5-year follow up, the association between intracranial hemorrhage and pituitary dysfunction (p value: 0.002) was significant. The risk of developing endocrine dysfunction after TBI increased during the entire 5-year follow-up period. Skull bone fracture and intracranial hemorrhage may be associated with short and long-term post-traumatic pituitary dysfunction, respectively.

  14. Soil microbial properties after 5 years of consecutive amendment with composted tannery sludge.

    PubMed

    Araujo, Ademir Sérgio Ferreira; Miranda, Ana Roberta Lima; Oliveira, Mara Lucia Jacinto; Santos, Vilma Maria; Nunes, Luís Alfredo Pinheiro Leal; Melo, Wanderley José

    2015-01-01

    Composting has been recognised an alternative method to tannery sludge recycling and afterwards to be used in agriculture. As the tannery sludge contains salts and chromium, the application of composted tannery sludge (CTS) should be performed carefully to minimise negative effects on soil microbial properties. Therefore, this study evaluated the effects of 5-year repeated CTS amendment on soil microbial biomass (SMB) and enzyme activities in a tropical soil. CTS was applied during 5 years at 0, 2.5, 5, 10 and 20 Mg ha(-1), and at the fifth year, the microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), basal and substrate-induced respiration (SIR), metabolic quotient (qCO₂) and dehydrogenase (DHA) and fluorescein diacetate (FDA) hydrolysis were determined in the soil samples. Soil MBC and MBN showed the highest values with the amendment of 5 Mg ha(-1) CTS. Soil respiration increased with the increase in CTS rates, while SIR showed the highest values with the amendment of 0, 2.5 and 5 Mg ha(-1) CTS. DHA activity showed the highest values with the amendment up to 2.5 Mg ha(-1), while FDA hydrolysis increased up to the rate of 5 Mg ha(-1) CTS. The results show that after 5 years of permanent amendment of CTS, soils amended with 2.5 Mg ha(-1) have SMB and enzymatic activities similar to those in unamended soil.

  15. Endocrine dysfunction following traumatic brain injury: a 5-year follow-up nationwide-based study.

    PubMed

    Yang, Wei-Hsun; Chen, Pau-Chung; Wang, Ting-Chung; Kuo, Ting-Yu; Cheng, Chun-Yu; Yang, Yao-Hsu

    2016-01-01

    Post-traumatic endocrine dysfunction is a complication of traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, there is lack of long-term follow-up and large sample size studies. This study included patients suffering from TBI registered in the Health Insurance Database. Endocrine disorders were identified using the ICD codes: 244 (acquired hypothyroidism), 253 (pituitary dysfunction), 255 (disorders of the adrenal glands), 258 (polyglandular dysfunction), and 259 (other endocrine disorders) with at least three outpatient visits within 1 year or one admission diagnosis. Overall, 156,945 insured subjects were included in the final analysis. The 1- and 5-year incidence rates of post-traumatic endocrinopathies were 0.4% and 2%, respectively. The risks of developing a common endocrinopathy (p < 0.001) or pituitary dysfunction (P < 0.001) were significantly higher in patients with a TBI history. Patients with a skull bone fracture had a higher risk of developing pituitary dysfunction at the 1-year follow up (p value < 0.001). At the 5-year follow up, the association between intracranial hemorrhage and pituitary dysfunction (p value: 0.002) was significant. The risk of developing endocrine dysfunction after TBI increased during the entire 5-year follow-up period. Skull bone fracture and intracranial hemorrhage may be associated with short and long-term post-traumatic pituitary dysfunction, respectively. PMID:27608606

  16. The Treatment of Parasomnias with Hypnosis: a 5-Year Follow-Up Study

    PubMed Central

    Hauri, Peter J.; Silber, Michael H.; Boeve, Bradley F.

    2007-01-01

    Study Objectives: This study involves a replication and extension of a previous one reported by Hurwitz et al (1991) on the treatment of certain parasomnias with hypnosis. Methods: Thirty-six patients (17 females), mean age 32.7 years (range 6–71). Four were children aged 6 to 16. All had chronic, “functionally autonomous” (self-sustaining) parasomnias. All underwent 1 or 2 hypnotherapy sessions and were then followed by questionnaire for 5 years. Results: Of the 36 patients, 45.4% were symptom-free or at least much improved at the 1-month follow-up, 42.2% at the 18-month follow-up, and 40.5% at the 5-year follow-up. Conclusions: One or 2 sessions of hypnotherapy might be an efficient first-line therapy for patients with certain types of parasomnias. Citation: Hauri PJ; Silber MH; Boeve BF. The treatment of parasomnias with hypnosis: a 5-year follow-up study. J Clin Sleep Med 2007;3(4):369-373. PMID:17694725

  17. Prevalence and Factors Associated with Anemia Among Children Under 5 Years of Age--Uganda, 2009.

    PubMed

    Menon, Manoj P; Yoon, Steven S

    2015-09-01

    Anemia in children under 5 years of age, defined by the World Health Organization as a hemoglobin concentration < 11 g/dL, is a global public health problem. According to the 2006 Demographic Health Survey, the prevalence of anemia among children under five in Uganda was 72% in 2006. The 2009 Uganda Malaria Indicator Survey was conducted in late 2009 and revealed that over 60% of children less than 5 years of age were anemic and that over half of children tested positive for malaria via a rapid diagnostic test. Children with concomitant malaria infection, and in households without any type of mosquito net were more likely to be anemic, confirming that children under 5 years, are vulnerable to both the threat of malaria and anemia and the beneficial effect of malaria prevention tools. However, prevention and treatment of other factors associated with the etiology of anemia (e.g., iron deficiency) are likely necessary to combat the toll of anemia in Uganda.

  18. Endocrine dysfunction following traumatic brain injury: a 5-year follow-up nationwide-based study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Wei-Hsun; Chen, Pau-Chung; Wang, Ting-Chung; Kuo, Ting-Yu; Cheng, Chun-Yu; Yang, Yao-Hsu

    2016-01-01

    Post-traumatic endocrine dysfunction is a complication of traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, there is lack of long-term follow-up and large sample size studies. This study included patients suffering from TBI registered in the Health Insurance Database. Endocrine disorders were identified using the ICD codes: 244 (acquired hypothyroidism), 253 (pituitary dysfunction), 255 (disorders of the adrenal glands), 258 (polyglandular dysfunction), and 259 (other endocrine disorders) with at least three outpatient visits within 1 year or one admission diagnosis. Overall, 156,945 insured subjects were included in the final analysis. The 1- and 5-year incidence rates of post-traumatic endocrinopathies were 0.4% and 2%, respectively. The risks of developing a common endocrinopathy (p < 0.001) or pituitary dysfunction (P < 0.001) were significantly higher in patients with a TBI history. Patients with a skull bone fracture had a higher risk of developing pituitary dysfunction at the 1-year follow up (p value < 0.001). At the 5-year follow up, the association between intracranial hemorrhage and pituitary dysfunction (p value: 0.002) was significant. The risk of developing endocrine dysfunction after TBI increased during the entire 5-year follow-up period. Skull bone fracture and intracranial hemorrhage may be associated with short and long-term post-traumatic pituitary dysfunction, respectively. PMID:27608606

  19. Outcome and Prognostic Factors for Traumatic Endophthalmitis over a 5-Year Period

    PubMed Central

    Nicoară, Simona Delia; Călinici, Tudor

    2014-01-01

    Purpose. To evaluate the outcome and identify the prognostic factors of traumatic endophthalmitis over a 5-year period. Methods. We reviewed the medical records of all the traumatic endophthalmities that we treated in our department over the last 5 years (2009–2013). We extracted the following parameters: age, gender, wound anatomy, associated ocular lesions, treatment, and initial and final visual acuities. We used the program SPSS version 20.0.0. for the statistical analysis of our data. Results. During the last 5 years, we treated 14 traumatic endophthalmities, representing 46.66% of all types of endophthalmities. The infection rate in open globe injuries was 8.13% and 34.78%, if an intraocular foreign body (IOFB) was associated. All the patients were males with the median age of 37 years. Initial visual acuities varied between light perception and 0.4 and the timing of treatment from a few hours to 10 days. We administered antibiotic and anti-inflammatory drugs, systemically and intravitreally, in all cases. We performed pars plana vitrectomy in 64.28% of cases. In 57.14% of cases, the final visual acuity was 0.1 or more. Conclusions. IOFBs increased significantly the risk for endophthalmitis. The worse prognostic factors were retinal detachment at presentation and delayed treatment. This trial is registered with IRCT2014082918966N1. PMID:25302113

  20. Study on Rotavirus Infection and Its Genotyping in Children Below 5 Years in South West Iran

    PubMed Central

    Azaran, Azarakhsh; Makvandi, Manoochehr; Samarbafzadeh, Alireza; Neisi, Niloofar; Hoseinzadeh, Mohsen; Rasti, Mojtaba; Teymurirad, Majid; Teimoori, Ali; Varnaseri, Mehran; Makvandi, Kamyar

    2016-01-01

    Background Human rotaviruses are the most important agents for severe dehydrating diarrhea in children below 5 years old. Rotaviruses (RV) is a serious public health problem in developing and developed countries. Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of rotavirus infection and their genotypes in children younger than 5 years of age with acute diarrhea in Ahvaz, Iran. Materials and Methods For this study, 200 stool samples from children below 5 years of age with acute diarrhea were collected between October 2011 and March 2012. Initially all stool samples were tested for rotavirus antigen by ELISA, and positive samples were confirmed by RT-PCR targeting the VP6 rotavirus gene. Determination of rotavirus genotypes was carried out by performing RT-PCR for G and P types. Altogether, 15 samples were sequenced. Results Out of 200 stool samples, 100 (50%) had rotavirus antigen detected by ELISA and 73 (36.5%) were found positive by RT-PCR. Of the rotavirus strains identified, only 63 (86.3%) were positive for both VP7 and VP4 while 10 (13.7%) strains were found nontypeable. Rotavirus infection accounts for 36.5% of gastroenteritis cases in samples from symptomatic children. The most prevalent rotavirus genotypes were G1P [8] (80%) followed by G2P [4] (20%). Conclusions Our results suggest that group A rotavirus is a major pathogene of acute diarrhea in Ahvaz city. The genotypes circulating are similar with those of other countries. PMID:27307959

  1. Sports activities 5 years after total knee or hip arthroplasty: the Ulm Osteoarthritis Study

    PubMed Central

    Huch, K; Muller, K; Sturmer, T; Brenner, H; Puhl, W; Gunther, K

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To analyse sports activities of patients with hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA) over lifetime, preoperatively, and 5 years after arthroplasty. Methods: In a longitudinal four centre study, 809 consecutive patients with advanced OA of the hip (420) or the knee (389) joint under the age of 76 years who required total joint replacement were recruited. A completed questionnaire about sports activities at 5 year follow up was received from 636 (79%) of the 809 patients. Results: Although most patients with hip (97%) and knee (94%) OA had performed sports activities during their life, only 36% (hip patients) and 42% (knee patients) had maintained sports activities at the time of surgery. Five years postoperatively, the proportion of patients performing sports activities increased to 52% among patients with hip OA, but further declined to 34% among those with knee OA. Accordingly, the proportion of patients with hip OA performing sports activities for more than 2 hours a week increased from 8 to 14%, whereas this proportion decreased from 12 to 5% among patients with knee OA. Pain in the replaced joint was reported by 9% of patients with hip and by >16% with knee OA. Conclusion: Differences in pain 5 years after joint replacement may explain some of the difference of sports activities between patients with hip and knee OA. Reasons for reduction of sports activities may include the increasing age of the patients, their worries about an "artificial joint", and the advice of their surgeon to be cautious. PMID:15843453

  2. Dietary influences on survival after ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Nagle, Christina M; Purdie, David M; Webb, Penelope M; Green, Adèle; Harvey, Philip W; Bain, Christopher J

    2003-08-20

    We evaluated the effects of various food groups and micronutrients in the diet on survival among women who originally participated in a population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer conducted across 3 Australian states between 1990 and 1993. This analysis included 609 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, primarily because there was negligible mortality in women with borderline tumors. The women's usual diet was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Deaths in the cohort were identified using state-based cancer registries and the Australian National Death Index (NDI). Crude 5-year survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier technique, and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from Cox regression models. After adjusting for important confounding factors, a survival advantage was observed for those who reported higher intake of vegetables in general (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.99, p-value trend 0.01 for the highest third, compared to the lowest third), and cruciferous vegetables in particular (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.98, p-value trend 0.03), and among women in the upper third of intake of vitamin E (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.58-1.01, p-value trend 0.04). Inverse associations were also seen with protein (p-value trend 0.09), red meat (p-value trend 0.06) and white meat (p-value trend 0.07), and modest positive trends (maximum 30% excess) with lactose (p-value trend 0.04), calcium and dairy products. Although much remains to be learned about the influence of nutritional factors after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer, our study suggests the possibility that a diet high in vegetable intake may help improve survival. PMID:12800204

  3. Similarity of the CDC and WHO weight-for-length growth charts in predicting risk of obesity at age 5 years.

    PubMed

    Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Gillman, Matthew W; Oken, Emily; Kleinman, Ken; Taveras, Elsie M

    2012-06-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) 2006 weight-for-length (WFL) or BMI growth charts are now recommended as the new standard for children under 24 months. The objective of this study was to examine associations of ever being overweight during 1-24 months, based on the older Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and WHO cutpoints, with risk of obesity at age 5 years. From well-child visits to a Massachusetts multi-site group practice during 1980-2008, we studied 15,488 children with length/height and weight measurements at 1, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months, and at 5 years. The main exposures were ever being overweight during 1-24 months using each of three cutpoints: CDC WFL ≥ 95th percentile, WHO WFL or BMI ≥ 97.7th percentile. The main outcome was obesity at 5 years (CDC BMI ≥ 95th percentile). We calculated multivariable odds ratios (ORs), adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and year. At 5 years, 10.8% of participants were obese. During 1-24 months, 21.3, 18.3, and 20.2% were ever overweight using CDC WFL, WHO WFL, and WHO BMI cutpoints, respectively. ORs (95% confidence interval (CI)) for associations of ever being overweight during 1-24 months with obesity at 5 years were 6.0 (5.4, 6.6), 6.3 (5.7, 7.0), and 6.0 (5.4, 6.7), respectively. Ever being overweight in the first 2 years of life is a strong predictor of obesity at 5 years. CDC WFL, WHO WFL, and WHO BMI cutpoints for overweight in early childhood provided similar estimates of later obesity risk.

  4. 75 FR 57254 - American Community Survey 5-Year Data Product Plans

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-20

    ... estimates. On March 6, 2009, the Census Bureau published a Federal Register notice (74 FR 9785) that... releases American Community Survey (ACS) data products in the form of 1-year estimates and 3-year estimates. Most recently, the 2008 ACS 1-year estimates were released in September 2009, and the 2006-2008 ACS...

  5. The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

    SciTech Connect

    Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

    1999-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

  6. Incidence, mortality and survival of childhood cancer in China during 2000-2010 period: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Rongshou; Peng, Xiaoxia; Zeng, Hongmei; Zhang, Siwei; Chen, Tianhui; Wang, Huanmin; Chen, Wanqing

    2015-07-28

    The objective of this study is to assess Chinese nationwide incidence, mortality and survival of childhood cancers, which has not been reported. Data from 145 Chinese Cancer Registries, which covered 158,403,248 populations, were pooled for analyses. Cancer patients were diagnosed during 2000-2010 at age 0-14 years. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and relative survival rates were calculated. Survival was estimated by the classic cohort approach. New cancer cases were projected using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Overall age-standardized incidence was 87.1 per million and age-standardized mortality was 36.3 per million. We found a statistically significant increase in incidence rate annually with 2.8% (95% CI: 1.1-4.6%, p < 0.05), a non-significant decreased mortality, and overall 5-year relative survival reaching 71.9% (95% CI: 69.4-77.1%). Projected new cases in 2015 are 22,875. We provide, for the first time, Chinese nationwide incidence, mortality and their temporal trends, and relative survival rates during the period of 2003-2005 for childhood cancer, which will contribute to a better understanding of the etiology and prevention of childhood cancers. The increasing trend of incidence rate and low 5-year relative survival rate suggest that more efforts for prevention and control of childhood cancers shall be invested in China.

  7. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XIV; Appraisal of the Relationship between Tag Detection Efficiency at Bonneville Dam and the Precision in Estuarine and Marine Survival Estimates on Returning PIT Tagged Chinook Salmon, 2000 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Perez-Comas, Jose A.; Skalski, John R.

    2000-07-01

    In the advent of the installation of a PIT-tag interrogation system in the Cascades Island fish ladder at Bonneville Dam, this report provides guidance on the anticipated precision of salmonid estuarine and marine survival estimates, for various levels of system-wide adult detection probability at Bonneville Dam. Precision was characterized by the standard error of the survival estimates and the coefficient of variation of the survival estimates. The anticipated precision of salmonid estuarine and marine survival estimates was directly proportional to the number of PIT-tagged smolts released and to the system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam, as well as to the in-river juvenile survival above Lower Granite Dam. Moreover, for a given release size and system-wide adult detection efficiency, higher estuarine and marine survivals did also produce more precise survival estimates. With a system-wide detection probability of P{sub BA} = 1 at Bonneville Dam, the anticipated CVs for the estuarine and marine survival ranged between 41 and 88% with release sizes of 10,000 smolts. Only with the 55,000 smolts being released from sites close to Lower Granite Dam and under high estuarine and marine survival, could CVs of 20% be attained with system detection efficiencies of less than perfect detection (i.e., P{sub BA} < 1).

  8. Global strategy for the diagnosis and management of asthma in children 5 years and younger.

    PubMed

    Pedersen, Soren Erik; Hurd, Suzanne S; Lemanske, Robert F; Becker, Allan; Zar, Heather J; Sly, Peter D; Soto-Quiroz, Manuel; Wong, Gary; Bateman, Eric D

    2011-01-01

    Asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood and the leading cause of childhood morbidity from chronic disease as measured by school absences, emergency department visits, and hospitalisation. During the past two decades, many scientific advances have improved our understanding of asthma and our ability to manage and control it effectively. However, in children 5 years and younger, the clinical symptoms of asthma are variable and non-specific. Furthermore, neither airflow limitation nor airway inflammation, the main pathologic hallmarks of the condition, can be assessed routinely in this age group. For this reason, to aid in the diagnosis of asthma in young children, a symptoms-only descriptive approach that includes the definition of various wheezing phenotypes has been recommended. In 1993, the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) was implemented to develop a network of individuals, organizations, and public health officials to disseminate information about the care of patients with asthma while at the same time assuring a mechanism to incorporate the results of scientific investigations into asthma care. Since then, GINA has developed and regularly revised a Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention. Publications based on the Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention have been translated into many different languages to promote international collaboration and dissemination of information. In this report, Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention in Children 5 Years and Younger, an effort has been made to present the special challenges that must be taken into account in managing asthma in children during the first 5 years of life, including difficulties with diagnosis, the efficacy and safety of drugs and drug delivery systems, and the lack of data on new therapies. Approaches to these issues will vary among populations in the world based on socioeconomic conditions, genetic diversity, cultural beliefs, and differences in

  9. Calcineurin activity in tacrolimus-treated renal transplant patients early after and 5 years after transplantation.

    PubMed

    Mortensen, D M; Koefoed-Nielsen, P B; Jørgensen, K A

    2006-10-01

    The pharmacodynamic (PD) action of tacrolimus (FK) within the T-cell is inhibition of calcineurin phosphatase (CaN). Determination of CaN activity provides us with an important PD marker. Eleven renal transplant patients treated with FK were investigated on day 14 following transplantation and 5 years later. Blood samples drawn before as well as 1, 2, 3, and 4 hours after oral intake of FK were analyzed for CaN activity and blood FK concentrations. Twenty healthy subjects had one blood sample drawn for CaN activity, which was measured as the release of (32)P from a phosphorylated peptide. Radioactivity of (32)P was quantitated by liquid scintillation counting with the results converted to units of CaN utilizing a calibration curve. On day 14, we observed significant inhibition of CaN activity at T:1, 2, and 3 compared with the predose level (P = .002; P = .015; P = .015). Furthermore, all measured CaN activities were significantly different from those observed in healthy nonmedicated subjects. In contrast, at 5 years posttransplant only the CaN activity at T:2 was significantly inhibited compared with the predose level (P = .02). Additionally, all CaN activities at this time were not significantly different from CaN activities in the healthy subjects. We were not able to demonstrate individual CaN activity profiles in the patients. The lack of CaN inhibition at 5 years after transplantation despite relevant drug concentrations, probably reflected the lower drug dose used long after transplantation. This result raises the question of whether CaN inhibition is necessary to hold graft function and whether FK possess CaN-independent mechanisms of action. PMID:17098028

  10. Global strategy for the diagnosis and management of asthma in children 5 years and younger.

    PubMed

    Pedersen, Soren Erik; Hurd, Suzanne S; Lemanske, Robert F; Becker, Allan; Zar, Heather J; Sly, Peter D; Soto-Quiroz, Manuel; Wong, Gary; Bateman, Eric D

    2011-01-01

    Asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood and the leading cause of childhood morbidity from chronic disease as measured by school absences, emergency department visits, and hospitalisation. During the past two decades, many scientific advances have improved our understanding of asthma and our ability to manage and control it effectively. However, in children 5 years and younger, the clinical symptoms of asthma are variable and non-specific. Furthermore, neither airflow limitation nor airway inflammation, the main pathologic hallmarks of the condition, can be assessed routinely in this age group. For this reason, to aid in the diagnosis of asthma in young children, a symptoms-only descriptive approach that includes the definition of various wheezing phenotypes has been recommended. In 1993, the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) was implemented to develop a network of individuals, organizations, and public health officials to disseminate information about the care of patients with asthma while at the same time assuring a mechanism to incorporate the results of scientific investigations into asthma care. Since then, GINA has developed and regularly revised a Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention. Publications based on the Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention have been translated into many different languages to promote international collaboration and dissemination of information. In this report, Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention in Children 5 Years and Younger, an effort has been made to present the special challenges that must be taken into account in managing asthma in children during the first 5 years of life, including difficulties with diagnosis, the efficacy and safety of drugs and drug delivery systems, and the lack of data on new therapies. Approaches to these issues will vary among populations in the world based on socioeconomic conditions, genetic diversity, cultural beliefs, and differences in

  11. [Analysis of food allergy incidence in children up to 5 years of age in the Wielikopolska region].

    PubMed

    Hofman, T

    1998-12-01

    The aim of this study was found the most frequent food allergens and analysis of food allergy incidence in children with food allergy from region Wielkopolska. 78 children in age from 2 months to 5 years of life with the first symptoms of food allergy: gastrointestinals symptoms and atopic dermatitis was examined. The specific IgE using the immunoenzymatic Quidel and AlaSTAT method to wheat, peanut, hazel nut, tomato, soya been, cow milk, egg, corn, orange and cod was percentage of the lymphocytes ThCD4+ in peripheral blood of allergy children was estimated. The normal results ranging from 29-42%. During the analysis established that in children from region Wielkopolska the most frequent allergen in each age was cow milk. Allergy to wheat found in 50% children with food allergy. It was observed increase allergy to new products as soya been, corn and nuts which are the more frequent used in our region. The causes apparent the food allergy among the children in age to 5 years are: so early given the cow's milk and other foreign protein to diet of infants, and infections the intestinal, airways and urine tracts. It is necessary breast-feeding the infants minimum up to 6 months of life and varying light diet without a big amounts of cow's milk or other foreign proteins during lactation and pregnancy. About a half of patients had a decreased number of lymphocytes T CD4+. Among the causes of food allergy the most important are in 40% the genetic factors but in 60% the infections factors and feedings defects.

  12. Etiology and Incidence of Viral Acute Respiratory Infections Among Refugees Aged 5 Years and Older in Hagadera Camp, Dadaab, Kenya.

    PubMed

    Mohamed, Gedi A; Ahmed, Jamal A; Marano, Nina; Mohamed, Abdinoor; Moturi, Edna; Burton, Wagacha; Otieno, Samora; Fields, Barry; Montgomery, Joel; Kabugi, Willy; Musa, Hashim; Cookson, Susan T

    2015-12-01

    We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-Kenya Medical Research Institute Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) Surveillance System data to estimate severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) hospitalization rates, viral etiology, and associated complaints of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and SARI conditions among those aged 5 years and older in Hagadera, Dadaab refugee camp, Kenya, for 2010-2012. A total of 471 patients aged ≥ 5 years met the case definition for ILI or SARI. SARI hospitalization rates per 10,000 person-years were 14.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 9.1, 22.2) for those aged 5-14 years; 3.4 (95% CI = 1.6, 7.2) for those aged 15-24 year; and 3.8 (95% CI = 1.6, 7.2) for those aged ≥ 25 years. Persons between the ages of 5 and 14 years had 3.5 greater odds to have been hospitalized as a result of SARI than those aged ≥ 25 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.5, P < 0.001). Among the 419 samples tested, 169 (40.3%) were positive for one or more virus. Of those samples having viruses, 36.9% had influenza A; 29.9% had adenovirus; 20.2% had influenza B; and 14.4% had parainfluenza 1, 2, or 3. Muscle/joint pain was associated with influenza A (P = 0.002), whereas headache was associated with influenza B (P = 0.019). ARIs were responsible for a substantial disease burden in Hagadera camp. PMID:26458776

  13. Durability of response to vaccination against viral hepatitis A in HIV-infected patients: a 5-year observation.

    PubMed

    Jabłonowska, E; Kuydowicz, J

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of total antibodies to hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV-T) in the group of HIV-positive adults in Lodz region of Poland, and to evaluate the response and long-term immunity after vaccination against hepatitis A virus. In the group of 234 HIV-infected patients, 72 persons (30.8%) were anti-HAV-T positive (>20 IU/L). In multivariate analysis, two independent factors associated with the presence of anti-HAV-T were identified: the age of patients (OR = 1.07) and the presence of antibodies to hepatitis C virus (OR = 2.87). Vaccination was completed in 83 patients. Good response (anti-HAV-T >20 IU/L one month after the booster dose) was obtained in 79.5% of patients. In patients with CD4 >200 cells/µL in multivariate analysis only presence of antibodies to hepatitis C virus was a prognostic factor for the response to vaccination (OR = 0.13). Among responders available for the follow-up, 82% (50 out of 61) had detectable anti-HAV-T at 1 year and 75.5% (37 out of 49) at 5 years. Our results demonstrate that most of the studied HIV-positive patients were susceptible to hepatitis A virus infection. Most HIV-infected adults with high CD4 counts had a durable response even up to 5 years after vaccination. Patients with a HIV/hepatitis C virus coinfection displayed a worse response to vaccination.

  14. The Course of Pain Intensity in Patients Undergoing Herniated Disc Surgery: A 5-Year Longitudinal Observational Study

    PubMed Central

    Dorow, Marie; Löbner, Margrit; Stein, Janine; Pabst, Alexander; Konnopka, Alexander; Meisel, Hans J.; Günther, Lutz; Meixensberger, Jürgen; Stengler, Katarina; König, Hans-Helmut; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The aims of this study are to answer the following questions (1) How does the pain intensity of lumbar and cervical disc surgery patients change within a postoperative time frame of 5 years? (2) Which sociodemographic, medical, work-related, and psychological factors are associated with postoperative pain in lumbar and cervical disc surgery patients? Methods The baseline survey (T0; n = 534) was conducted 3.6 days (SD 2.48) post-surgery in the form of face-to-face interviews. The follow-up interviews were conducted 3 months (T1; n = 486 patients), 9 months (T2; n = 457), 15 months (T3; n = 438), and 5 years (T4; n = 404) post-surgery. Pain intensity was measured on a numeric rating-scale (NRS 0–100). Estimated changes to and influences on postoperative pain by random effects were accounted by regression models. Results Average pain decreased continuously over time in patients with lumbar herniated disc (Wald Chi² = 25.97, p<0.001). In patients with cervical herniated disc a reduction of pain was observed, albeit not significant (Chi² = 7.02, p = 0.135). Two predictors were associated with postoperative pain in lumbar and cervical disc surgery patients: the subjective prognosis of gainful employment (p<0.001) and depression (p<0.001). Conclusion In the majority of disc surgery patients, a long-term reduction of pain was observed. Cervical surgery patients seemed to benefit less from surgery than the lumbar surgery patients. A negative subjective prognosis of gainful employment and stronger depressive symptoms were associated with postoperative pain. The findings may promote multimodal rehabilitation concepts including psychological and work-related support. PMID:27243810

  15. Etiology and Incidence of Viral Acute Respiratory Infections Among Refugees Aged 5 Years and Older in Hagadera Camp, Dadaab, Kenya.

    PubMed

    Mohamed, Gedi A; Ahmed, Jamal A; Marano, Nina; Mohamed, Abdinoor; Moturi, Edna; Burton, Wagacha; Otieno, Samora; Fields, Barry; Montgomery, Joel; Kabugi, Willy; Musa, Hashim; Cookson, Susan T

    2015-12-01

    We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-Kenya Medical Research Institute Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) Surveillance System data to estimate severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) hospitalization rates, viral etiology, and associated complaints of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and SARI conditions among those aged 5 years and older in Hagadera, Dadaab refugee camp, Kenya, for 2010-2012. A total of 471 patients aged ≥ 5 years met the case definition for ILI or SARI. SARI hospitalization rates per 10,000 person-years were 14.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 9.1, 22.2) for those aged 5-14 years; 3.4 (95% CI = 1.6, 7.2) for those aged 15-24 year; and 3.8 (95% CI = 1.6, 7.2) for those aged ≥ 25 years. Persons between the ages of 5 and 14 years had 3.5 greater odds to have been hospitalized as a result of SARI than those aged ≥ 25 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.5, P < 0.001). Among the 419 samples tested, 169 (40.3%) were positive for one or more virus. Of those samples having viruses, 36.9% had influenza A; 29.9% had adenovirus; 20.2% had influenza B; and 14.4% had parainfluenza 1, 2, or 3. Muscle/joint pain was associated with influenza A (P = 0.002), whereas headache was associated with influenza B (P = 0.019). ARIs were responsible for a substantial disease burden in Hagadera camp.

  16. Ten Years of Tamoxifen Reduces Breast Cancer Recurrences, Improves Survival

    MedlinePlus

    ... Cancer Screening Research Ten Years of Tamoxifen Reduces Breast Cancer Recurrences, Improves Survival For some women with breast ... took it for 5 years. (See the table.) Breast Cancer Recurrence and Death 5 to 14 Years after ...

  17. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVIII: Survival and Transportation Effects of Migrating Snake River Wild Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates From 1996-2004 and Comparison to Hatchery Results. Draft.

    SciTech Connect

    Buchanan, Rebecca A.; Skalski, John R.; Broms, Kristin

    2008-12-03

    The combined juvenile and adult detection histories of PIT-tagged wild salmonids migrating through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) were analyzed using the ROSTER (River-Ocean Survival and Transportation Effects Routine) statistical release-recapture model. This model, implemented by software Program ROSTER, was used to estimate survival on large temporal and spatial scales for PIT-tagged wild spring and summer Chinook salmon and steelhead released in the Snake River Basin upstream of Lower Granite Dam from 1996 to 2004. In addition, annual results from wild salmonids were compared with results from hatchery salmonids, which were presented in a previous report in this series (Buchanan, R. A., Skalski, J. R., Lady, J. L., Westhagen, P., Griswold, J., and Smith, S. 2007, 'Survival and Transportation Effects for Migrating Snake River Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates from 1996-2003', Technical report, Bonneville Power Administration, Project 1991-051-00). These results are reported here. Annual estimates of the smolt-to-adult return ratio (SAR), juvenile inriver survival from Lower Granite to Bonneville, the ocean return probability from Bonneville to Bonneville, and adult upriver survival from Bonneville to Lower Granite are reported. Annual estimates of transport-inriver (T/I) ratios and differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) are reported on a dam-specific basis for release years with sufficient numbers of wild PIT-tagged smolts transported. Transportation effects are estimated only for dams where at least 1,000 tagged wild smolts were transported from a given upstream release group. Because few wild Chinook salmon and steelhead tagged upstream of Lower Granite Dam were transported before the 2003 release year, T/I and D were estimated only for the 2003 and 2004 release years. Performance measures include age-1-ocean adult returns for steelhead, but not for Chinook salmon. Spring and summer Chinook salmon release groups

  18. Social Support and Survival in Young Women with Breast Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Chou, Ann F.; Stewart, Susan L.; Wild, Robert C.; Bloom, Joan R.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose While previous evidence has shown increased likelihood for survival in cancer patients who have social support, little is known about changes in social support during illness and their impact on survival. This study examines the relationship between social support and survival among women diagnosed with breast carcinoma, specifically assessing the effect of network size and changes in social contact post-diagnosis. Methods A population-based sample of 584 women was followed for up to 12.5 years (median follow-up =10.3 years). The mean age at diagnosis was 44 years, 81% were married, and 29% were racial/ethnic minorities. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate survival as a function of social support (changes in social contact and the size of social support), disease severity, treatment, health status, and socio-demographic factors. Results Fifty-four-percent of the women had local and 44% had regional stage disease. About 53% underwent mastectomy, 68% received chemotherapy, and 55% had radiation. Regression results showed that disease stage, estrogen receptor status, and mastectomy were associated with greater risk of dying. Although network size was not related to survival, increased contact with friends/family post-diagnosis was associated with lower risk of death, with a hazard ratio of 0.31 (95% CI, 0.17-0.57). Conclusion Findings from this study have identified an important aspect of a woman’s social network that impacts survival. An increase in the amount of social contact, representing greater social support, may increase the likelihood of the women’s survival by enhancing their coping skills, providing emotional support, and expanding opportunities for information-sharing. PMID:20967848

  19. Exemestane Following Tamoxifen Reduces Breast Cancer Recurrences and Prolongs Survival

    Cancer.gov

    Postmenopausal women with early-stage hormone receptor-positive breast cancer had delayed disease recurrence and longer survival after taking 2-3 years of tamoxifen followed by exemestane for a total of 5 years compared to taking tamoxifen for 5 years.

  20. Upbeat nystagmus in a 3.5-year-old boy.

    PubMed

    Matalia, Jyoti; Rajput, Vimal K; Chillal, Geetanjali J; Shetty, Bhujang K

    2016-02-01

    Upbeat nystagmus is usually a central vestibular nystagmus attributable to structural brainstem or cerebellar lesions. Adult-onset upbeat nystagmus calls for a thorough neurological evaluation. In children, however, it can occur as a transient phenomenon in healthy neonates or as a sensory form of nystagmus that usually transforms into horizontal nystagmus by 2 years of age. We report the case of 3.5-year-old boy with upbeat nystagmus. His ocular examination was within normal limits. Neurological evaluation was normal. Optical coherence tomography testing and Electroretinogram confirmed cone dysfunction. Over the next 6 months the upbeat nystagmus converted to horizontal nystagmus.

  1. Infantile fibrosarcoma of ethmoid sinus, misdiagnosed as an adenoid in a 5-year-old child.

    PubMed

    Geramizadeh, Bita; Khademi, Bijan; Karimi, Mehran; Shekarkhar, Golsa

    2015-01-01

    Infantile fibrosarcoma of head and neck is rare and the presence of this tumor in ethmoid sinus is even more uncommon. To the best of our knowledge, <5 cases have been reported in the last 20 years in the English literature, so far, only one of which has been infantile type in a 15 months old girl. In this case report, we will explain our experience with a rare case of infantile fibrosarcoma originating from ethmoid sinus in a 5-year-old boy who presented with dyspnea and epistaxis. After biopsy, it was diagnosed as fibrosarcoma of sinus origin. PMID:26604519

  2. The Chandra High-Energy Transmission Grating: Design, Fabrication, Ground Calibration, and 5 Years in Flight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canizares, Claude R.; Davis, John E.; Dewey, Daniel; Flanagan, Kathryn A.; Galton, Eugene B.; Huenemoerder, David P.; Ishibashi, Kazunori; Markert, Thomas H.; Marshall, Herman L.; McGuirk, Michael; Schattenburg, Mark L.; Schulz, Norbert S.; Smith, Henry I.; Wise, Michael

    2005-10-01

    Details of the design, fabrication, and ground and flight calibration of the High Energy Transmission Grating (HETG) on the Chandra X-Ray Observatory are presented after 5 years of flight experience. Specifics include the theory of phased transmission gratings as applied to the HETG, the Rowland design of the spectrometer, details of the grating fabrication techniques, and the results of ground testing and calibration of the HETG. For nearly 6 years the HETG has operated essentially as designed, although it has presented some subtle flight calibration effects.

  3. Socioeconomic status and changes in body mass from 3 to 5 years.

    PubMed

    De Spiegelaere, M; Dramaix, M; Hennart, P

    1998-05-01

    The influence of social status on the development of body mass was analysed in a retrospective cohort study of 675 Belgian children monitored between the ages of 3 and 5 years by the preventive medical services in Brussels. At age 3, no association between excess weight and social status was observed. Adiposity rebound before age 5 was inversely related to body mass at age 3 and was independent of social status. The social influences on obesity observed in adolescence cannot be explained by a higher frequency of early adiposity rebound in children of low socioeconomic status.

  4. Malnutrition among children younger than 5 years-old in conflict zones of Chiapas, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Pérez, Héctor Javier; Hernán, Miguel A; Ríos-González, Adriana; Arana-Cedeño, Marcos; Navarro, Albert; Ford, Douglas; Micek, Mark A; Brentlinger, Paula

    2007-02-01

    We performed a cross-sectional, community-based survey, supplemented by interviews with community leaders in Chiapas, Mexico, to examine the prevalence and predictors of child malnutrition in regions affected by the Zapatista conflict. The prevalence rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 54.1%, 2.9%, and 20.3%, respectively, in 2666 children aged younger than 5 years. Stunting was associated with indigenous ethnicity, poverty, region of residence, and intracommunity division. The results indicate that malnutrition is a serious public health problem in the studied regions.

  5. Malnutrition Among Children Younger Than 5 Years-Old in Conflict Zones of Chiapas, Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Sánchez-Pérez, Héctor Javier; Hernán, Miguel A.; Ríos-González, Adriana; Arana-Cedeño, Marcos; Navarro, Albert; Ford, Douglas; Micek, Mark A.; Brentlinger, Paula

    2007-01-01

    We performed a cross-sectional, community-based survey, supplemented by interviews with community leaders in Chiapas, Mexico, to examine the prevalence and predictors of child malnutrition in regions affected by the Zapatista conflict. The prevalence rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 54.1%, 2.9%, and 20.3%, respectively, in 2666 children aged younger than 5 years. Stunting was associated with indigenous ethnicity, poverty, region of residence, and intracommunity division. The results indicate that malnutrition is a serious public health problem in the studied regions. PMID:17194868

  6. Giant pericardial cyst in a 5-year-old child: A rare anomaly

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Sanjay; Jain, Promil; Sen, Rajeev; Rattan, KN; Agarwal, Ruchi; Garg, Shilpa

    2011-01-01

    Pericardial cysts are uncommon congenital abnormalities that occur in the middle mediastinum. Most of these are found incidentally on chest x-rays. The occurrence of pericardial cyst in children is quite rare. It needs to be differentiated from other cystic mediastinal masses. A rare case of pericardial cyst in a 5 year old male child is reported. The child presented with chest pain, cough and fever. The preoperative diagnosis of pericardial cyst was suggestive on echocardiography and CT scan. It was confirmed on histopathology after successful surgical excision. The rarity of this benign mediastinal lesion in children prompted us to report this case. PMID:21677811

  7. Bilateral renal leiomyoma with 5 year follow-up: Case report.

    PubMed

    Goren, Mehmet Resit; Erbay, Gurcan; Ozer, Cevahir; Goren, Vinil; Bal, Nebil

    2015-01-01

    Renal leiomyomas are exceptionally rare benign tumours of the kidney. Although the renal leiomyomas usually do not metastasize, the differential diagnosis between renal leiomyomas and malign lesions (leiomyosarcoma or renal cell carcinoma) cannot be done by radiological examinations, but is possible by histological examination. Surgery is the preferred treatment. After surgery, the prognosis is excellent without recurrence. Although uterine leiomyomas can be multicentric, renal leiomyomas have been single lesions. We report an incidentally detected case of bilateral renal leiomyoma in a 50-year-old woman with a 5-year follow-up. We also review the literature and discuss clinical, radiological and histological features of renal leiomyomas. PMID:26664510

  8. Early Eruption of Maxillary Pre Molar with Turner's Hypoplasia in a 5-Year-Old Boy.

    PubMed

    Rai, Nitya; Mathur, Shivani; Sandhu, Meera; Sachdev, Vinod

    2016-08-01

    Early eruption of permanent maxillary premolar appears to be a unique finding, at such an early chronological age. Untimely eruption of permanent maxillary premolar is discussed in a 5-year-old male patient. On intra oral examination grossly carious primary maxillary first molar (tooth number 54,64) were reported. The erupting teeth presented with a hypomineralized cusp tip. Extraction following space maintainer in 64 region was given. Pediatric dentist should consider these kinds of rarities in eruption pattern while examining a pediatric patient. PMID:27656581

  9. Malnutrition among children younger than 5 years-old in conflict zones of Chiapas, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Pérez, Héctor Javier; Hernán, Miguel A; Ríos-González, Adriana; Arana-Cedeño, Marcos; Navarro, Albert; Ford, Douglas; Micek, Mark A; Brentlinger, Paula

    2007-02-01

    We performed a cross-sectional, community-based survey, supplemented by interviews with community leaders in Chiapas, Mexico, to examine the prevalence and predictors of child malnutrition in regions affected by the Zapatista conflict. The prevalence rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 54.1%, 2.9%, and 20.3%, respectively, in 2666 children aged younger than 5 years. Stunting was associated with indigenous ethnicity, poverty, region of residence, and intracommunity division. The results indicate that malnutrition is a serious public health problem in the studied regions. PMID:17194868

  10. Early Eruption of Maxillary Pre Molar with Turner's Hypoplasia in a 5-Year-Old Boy.

    PubMed

    Rai, Nitya; Mathur, Shivani; Sandhu, Meera; Sachdev, Vinod

    2016-08-01

    Early eruption of permanent maxillary premolar appears to be a unique finding, at such an early chronological age. Untimely eruption of permanent maxillary premolar is discussed in a 5-year-old male patient. On intra oral examination grossly carious primary maxillary first molar (tooth number 54,64) were reported. The erupting teeth presented with a hypomineralized cusp tip. Extraction following space maintainer in 64 region was given. Pediatric dentist should consider these kinds of rarities in eruption pattern while examining a pediatric patient.

  11. Effects of radio marking on prairie falcons: Attachment failures provide insights about survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, Karen; Bates, Kirk K.; Fuller, Mark R.; Kochert, Michael N.; McKinley, J.O.; Lukacs, Paul M.

    2006-01-01

    From 1999-2002, we attached satellite-received platform transmitter terminals (PTTs) to 40 adult female prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus) on their nesting grounds in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) in southwest Idaho. We used 3 variations of a backpack harness design that had been used previously on raptors. Each radiomarked falcon also received a color leg band with a unique alphanumeric code. We monitored survival of birds using radiotelemetry and searched for marked birds on their nesting grounds during breeding seasons after marking. Because 6 falcons removed their harnesses during the first year, we were able to compare survival rates of birds that shed PTTs with those that retained them. We describe a harness design that failed prematurely as well as designs that proved successful for long-term PTT attachment. We resighted 21 marked individuals on nesting areas 1-5 years after they were radiomarked and documented 13 mortalities of satellite-tracked falcons. We used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate apparent survival probability based on band resighting and telemetry data. Platform transmitter terminals had no short-term effects on falcons or their nesting success during the nesting season they were marked, but birds that shed their transmitters increased their probability of survival. Estimated annual survival for birds that shed their transmitters was 87% compared to 49% for birds wearing transmitters. We discuss possible reasons for differences in apparent survival rates and offer recommendations for future marking of falcons.

  12. Back injuries in a cohort of schoolchildren aged 6-12: A 2.5-year prospective study.

    PubMed

    Franz, C; Jespersen, E; Rexen, C T; Leboeuf-Yde, C; Wedderkopp, N

    2016-08-01

    The aims of this prospective school cohort study were to describe the epidemiology of diagnosed back pain in childhood, classified as either nontraumatic or traumatic back injury, and to estimate the association with physical activity in different settings. Over 2.5 years, 1240 children aged 6-12 years were surveyed weekly using mobile text messages to ask about the presence or absence of back pain. Pain was clinically diagnosed and injuries were classified using the International Classification of Diseases version 10. Physical activity data were obtained from text messages and accelerometers. Of the 315 back injuries diagnosed, 186 injuries were nontraumatic and 129 were traumatic. The incidence rate ratio was 1.5 for a nontraumatic back injury compared with a traumatic injury. The overall estimated back injury incidence rate was 0.20 per 1000 physical activity units (95% confidence interval 0.18-0.23). The back injury incidence rates were higher for sports when exposure per 1000 physical activity units was taken into consideration and especially children horse-riding had a 40 times higher risk of sustaining a traumatic back injury compared to the risk during non-organized leisure time physical activity. However, the reasonably low injury incidence rates support the recommendations of children continuously being physically active. PMID:26130046

  13. Analysis of blood gases, serum fat and serum protein: a new approach to estimate survival chances of stranded Harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) pups from the German North Sea

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Facing numerous challenges, such as illness, storms or human disturbance, some harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) pups lose contact to their dams and are found abandoned along the North Sea coast. In Schleswig-Holstein, pups with the prospect of surviving rehabilitation are admitted to the Seal Center Friedrichskoog. Despite elaborate clinical health assessments on admission, including differential hematology, in 2010, 17% of 108 admitted pups did not survive the first 20 days. The death rate during the years 2006 and 2009 varied between 9 and 19%. To broaden the spectrum of variables which could be predictive for survival, blood gas and serum analyses were performed for 99 pups using venous blood. Variables included total CO2, pH, partial CO2, HCO3–, base excess and anion gap as well as glucose, urea nitrogen, sodium, potassium and chloride. Moreover, total serum protein and fat (triglyceride) concentrations were measured for all pups on admission. Results Repeated measurements of 12 randomly selected individuals revealed a significant (p = 0.002) positive influence of time in rehabilitation on triglyceride concentrations. This trend probably shows the improvement of the pups’ nutritional status as a consequence of the shift from milk replacer formula to fish. No such positive influence was detected for total protein concentrations though. Hematologic values, including blood gases, were not predictive for survival. Conclusions For the first time blood gas values are reported in this study for a large sample size (N = 99) of seal pups (regardless of their health status). The ranges and medians calculated from the data can serve as a stepping stone towards the establishment of reference values for neonate harbor seals. However, future investigations on the development of blood gases in harbor seals with different health conditions and ages over time are necessary to allow for a better understanding of acid–base regulation in harbor seals. PMID:24490584

  14. Single vs dual (en bloc) kidney transplants from donors ≤ 5 years of age: A single center experience

    PubMed Central

    Al-Shraideh, Yousef; Farooq, Umar; El-Hennawy, Hany; Farney, Alan C; Palanisamy, Amudha; Rogers, Jeffrey; Orlando, Giuseppe; Khan, Muhammad; Reeves-Daniel, Amber; Doares, William; Kaczmorski, Scott; Gautreaux, Michael D; Iskandar, Samy S; Hairston, Gloria; Brim, Elizabeth; Mangus, Margaret; Stratta, Robert J

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To compare outcomes between single and dual en bloc (EB) kidney transplants (KT) from small pediatric donors. METHODS: Monocentric nonprospective review of KTs from pediatric donors ≤ 5 years of age. Dual EB KT was defined as keeping both donor kidneys attached to the inferior vena cava and aorta, which were then used as venous and arterial conduits for the subsequent transplant into a single recipient. Donor age was less useful than either donor weight or kidney size in decision-making for kidney utilization as kidneys from donors < 8 kg or kidneys < 6 cm in length were not transplanted. Post-transplant management strategies were standardized in all patients. RESULTS: From 2002-2015, 59 KTs were performed including 34 dual EB and 25 single KTs. Mean age of donors (17 mo vs 38 mo, P < 0.001), mean weight (11.0 kg vs 17.4 kg, P = 0.046) and male donors (50% vs 84%, P = 0.01) were lower in the dual EB compared to the single KT group, respectively. Mean cold ischemia time (21 h), kidney donor profile index (KDPI; 73% vs 62%) and levels of serum creatinine (SCr, 0.37 mg/dL vs 0.49 mg/dL, all P = NS) were comparable in the dual EB and single KT groups, respectively. Actuarial graft and patient survival rates at 5-years follow-up were comparable. There was one case of thrombosis resulting in graft loss in each group. Delayed graft function incidence (12% dual EB vs 20% single KT, P = NS) was slightly lower in dual EB KT recipients. Initial duration of hospital stay (mean 5.4 d vs 5.6 d) and the one-year incidences of acute rejection (6% vs 16%), operative complications (3% vs 4%), and major infection were comparable in the dual EB and single KT groups, respectively (all P = NS). Mean 12 mo SCr and abbreviated MDRD levels were 1.17 mg/dL vs 1.35 mg/dL and 72.5 mL/min per 1.73 m2 vs 60.5 mL/min per 1.73 m2 (both P = NS) in the dual EB and single KT groups, respectively. CONCLUSION: By transplanting kidneys from young pediatric donors into adult recipients, one can

  15. EXPOSE-E: an ESA astrobiology mission 1.5 years in space.

    PubMed

    Rabbow, Elke; Rettberg, Petra; Barczyk, Simon; Bohmeier, Maria; Parpart, André; Panitz, Corinna; Horneck, Gerda; von Heise-Rotenburg, Ralf; Hoppenbrouwers, Tom; Willnecker, Rainer; Baglioni, Pietro; Demets, René; Dettmann, Jan; Reitz, Guenther

    2012-05-01

    The multi-user facility EXPOSE-E was designed by the European Space Agency to enable astrobiology research in space (low-Earth orbit). On 7 February 2008, EXPOSE-E was carried to the International Space Station (ISS) on the European Technology Exposure Facility (EuTEF) platform in the cargo bay of Space Shuttle STS-122 Atlantis. The facility was installed at the starboard cone of the Columbus module by extravehicular activity, where it remained in space for 1.5 years. EXPOSE-E was returned to Earth with STS-128 Discovery on 12 September 2009 for subsequent sample analysis. EXPOSE-E provided accommodation in three exposure trays for a variety of astrobiological test samples that were exposed to selected space conditions: either to space vacuum, solar electromagnetic radiation at >110 nm and cosmic radiation (trays 1 and 3) or to simulated martian surface conditions (tray 2). Data on UV radiation, cosmic radiation, and temperature were measured every 10 s and downlinked by telemetry. A parallel mission ground reference (MGR) experiment was performed on ground with a parallel set of hardware and samples under simulated space conditions. EXPOSE-E performed a successful 1.5-year mission in space.

  16. An implantable neuroprosthesis for standing and walking in paraplegia: 5-year patient follow-up.

    PubMed

    Guiraud, David; Stieglitz, Thomas; Koch, Klaus Peter; Divoux, Jean-Louis; Rabischong, Pierre

    2006-12-01

    We present the results of a 5-year patient follow-up after implantation of an original neuroprosthesis. The system is able to stimulate both epimysial and neural electrodes in such a way that the complete flexor-extensor chain of the lower limb can be activated without using the withdrawal reflex. We demonstrate that standing and assisted walking are possible, and the results have remained stable for 5 years. Nevertheless, some problems were noted, particularly regarding the muscle response on the epimysial channels. Analysis of the electrical behaviour and thresholds indicated that the surgical phase is crucial because of the sensitivity of the functional responses to electrode placement. Neural stimulation proved to be more efficient and more stable over time. This mode requires less energy and provides more selective stimulation. This FES system can be improved to enable balanced standing and less fatiguing gait, but this will require feedback on event detection to trigger transitions between stimulation sequences, as well as feedback to the patient about the state of his lower limbs.

  17. Factors associated with vaccination coverage in children < 5 years in Angola.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Manuel Falcão Saturnino de; Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Rocha, Juan Stuardo Yazlle

    2014-12-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze vaccination coverage and factors associated with a complete immunization scheme in children < 5 years old. METHODS This cross-sectional household census survey evaluated 1,209 children < 5 years old living in Bom Jesus, Angola, in 2010. Data were obtained from interviews, questionnaires, child immunization histories, and maternal health histories. The statistical analysis used generalized linear models, in which the dependent variable followed a binary distribution (vaccinated, unvaccinated) and the association function was logarithmic and had the children's individual, familial, and socioeconomic factors as independent variables. RESULTS Vaccination coverage was 37.0%, higher in children < 1 year (55.0%) and heterogeneous across neighborhoods; 52.0% of children of both sexes had no immunization records. The prevalence rate of vaccination significantly varied according to child age, mother's level of education, family size, ownership of household appliances, and destination of domestic waste. CONCLUSIONS Vulnerable groups with vaccination coverage below recommended levels continue to be present. Some factors indicate inequalities that represent barriers to full immunization, indicating the need to implement more equitable policies. The knowledge of these factors contributes to planning immunization promotion measures that focus on the most vulnerable groups.

  18. An implantable neuroprosthesis for standing and walking in paraplegia: 5-year patient follow-up

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guiraud, David; Stieglitz, Thomas; Koch, Klaus Peter; Divoux, Jean-Louis; Rabischong, Pierre

    2006-12-01

    We present the results of a 5-year patient follow-up after implantation of an original neuroprosthesis. The system is able to stimulate both epimysial and neural electrodes in such a way that the complete flexor-extensor chain of the lower limb can be activated without using the withdrawal reflex. We demonstrate that standing and assisted walking are possible, and the results have remained stable for 5 years. Nevertheless, some problems were noted, particularly regarding the muscle response on the epimysial channels. Analysis of the electrical behaviour and thresholds indicated that the surgical phase is crucial because of the sensitivity of the functional responses to electrode placement. Neural stimulation proved to be more efficient and more stable over time. This mode requires less energy and provides more selective stimulation. This FES system can be improved to enable balanced standing and less fatiguing gait, but this will require feedback on event detection to trigger transitions between stimulation sequences, as well as feedback to the patient about the state of his lower limbs.

  19. Composite vertical bite reconstructions in eroded dentitions after 5·5 years: a case series.

    PubMed

    Attin, T; Filli, T; Imfeld, C; Schmidlin, P R

    2012-01-01

    In the following case series, we report on six cases of erosive worn dentitions (75 posterior teeth), which have been reconstructed using a template-based technique with direct composite resin restorations and already examined after 3 years in service. In all patients either one or both tooth arches were completely restored using direct resin composite restorations. A wax-up-based template was used to avoid freehand build-up techniques and to ensure optimal anatomy and function. All patients were re-assessed after a mean service time of 5·5 years (mean 67 ± 4 months) using United States Public Health Service criteria. The overall quality of the restorations was good with predominantly 'alpha' and 'bravo' scores, respectively. However, the restorations showed some deterioration with respect to marginal quality, marginal discoloration, surface texture and anatomy as compared to the 3-year investigation. The marginal impairments could be resolved by polishing. It is concluded that this non-invasive technique provides a possible treatment option at least for the displayed observation period of 5·5 years.

  20. The temporal "pulse" of drinking: Tracking 5 years of binge drinking in emerging adults.

    PubMed

    Reich, Richard R; Cummings, Jenna R; Greenbaum, Paul E; Moltisanti, Allison J; Goldman, Mark S

    2015-08-01

    Binge drinking is associated with clinically significant individual-level and public health consequences. The topography of binge drinking may influence the emergence of consequences, but studies of topography require a higher level of temporal resolution than is typically available in epidemiological research. To address topography across the 5 "peak" years of binge drinking (18 to 23 years), we assessed daily binge drinking via successive 90-day timeline follow-back interviews of 645 young adults (resulting in almost 700,000 data points). Results showed a weekend "pulse" of binge drinking that remained consistent across the entire 5 year span, with occasional holiday-based perturbations. Two-part latent growth curve modeling applied to this dataset showed that the often-observed decrease in drinking associated with "maturing out" was due more to decreased participation in binge drinking occasions, rather than to amounts consumed when drinking (intensity). Similarly, the number of binge drinkers varied by day of the week, but the intensity of binge drinking, for those drinking, varied little by day of the week. This approach also showed distinctive predictors for participation and intensity; baseline expectancies and sociability accounted for individual differences in participation, whereas impulsivity-sensation seeking predicted intensity. Individual patterns of binge drinking participation and intensity also predicted drinking consequences over the 5 years of the study. Given these results, binge drinking patterns may serve as a useful phenotype for future research on pathological drinking. PMID:25961813

  1. A 5-Year Investigation of Children's Adaptive Functioning Following Conformal Radiation Therapy for Localized Ependymoma

    SciTech Connect

    Netson, Kelli L.; Conklin, Heather M.; Wu Shengjie; Xiong Xiaoping; Merchant, Thomas E.

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapies have the potential to preserve cognitive outcomes in children with ependymoma; however, functional behavior remains uninvestigated. This longitudinal investigation prospectively examined intelligence quotient (IQ) and adaptive functioning during the first 5 years after irradiation in children diagnosed with ependymoma. Methods and Materials: The study cohort consisted of 123 children with intracranial ependymoma. Mean age at irradiation was 4.60 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.85-5.35). Serial neurocognitive evaluations, including an age-appropriate IQ measure and the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS), were completed before irradiation, 6 months after treatment, and annually for 5 years. A total of 579 neurocognitive evaluations were included in these analyses. Results: Baseline IQ and VABS were below normative means (P<.05), although within the average range. Linear mixed models revealed stable IQ and VABS across the follow-up period, except for the VABS Communication Index, which declined significantly (P=.015). Annual change in IQ (-.04 points) did not correlate with annual change in VABS (-.90 to +.44 points). Clinical factors associated with poorer baseline performance (P<.05) included preirradiation chemotherapy, cerebrospinal fluid shunt placement, number and extent of surgical resections, and younger age at treatment. No clinical factors significantly affected the rate of change in scores. Conclusions: Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapies provided relative sparing of functional outcomes including IQ and adaptive behaviors, even in very young children. Communication skills remained vulnerable and should be the target of preventive and rehabilitative interventions.

  2. Longitudinal study of dental caries increment in Malaysian school children: a 5-year cohort study.

    PubMed

    Masood, Mohd; Yusof, Norashikin; Hassan, Mohamed I A; Jaafar, Nasaruddin

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this 5-year longitudinal cohort study was to assess the prevalence, severity, and trends in caries increment and impact of the School Dental Incremental Care Programme (SDICP). Data were gathered from school dental records as part of the SDICP. A sample of 1830 children were included and checked for caries experience annually using World Health Organization criteria. In total, 95.4% of the children were caries free in 2004, and caries experience declined to 70.5% in 2009 with an average of 4.9% annually. At baseline, the mean DMFT (confidence interval [CI]) was 0.06 (0.05-0.08) and increased to 0.58 (0.53-0.63) in 2009. Children with active caries were 4.4% in 2004, and figures rose to 9.6% in 2009. The FT component increased most rapidly during these 5 years from 0.2% to 25.1%. Overall caries prevalence and increment was low in this study. Proportions of FT component were higher as compared with DT component with low rate of extractions during the latter years of the study. PMID:22218936

  3. A 5-year study of adenoviruses causing conjunctivitis in Izmir, Turkey.

    PubMed

    Erdin, Begüm Nalça; Pas, Suzan D; Durak, İsmet; Schutten, Martin; Sayıner, A Arzu

    2015-03-01

    Adenoviruses are a common cause of conjunctivitis. Genotypes are diverse and differ according to population and geographical distribution of the virus. There is limited data regarding ocular adenoviral infections and genotype distribution in Turkey. This study aimed to determine the adenovirus genotypes and their epidemiological features among patients with conjunctivitis between 2006 and 2010, in Izmir, Turkey. Adenoviral DNA was detected by PCR in 213 of 488 (44%) of the ocular samples collected from patients with viral conjunctivitis during the 5-year study period. Of these, 101 (47%) were randomly chosen and genotyped by sequence analysis. Seven genotypes were identified, including 3, 4, 8, 11, 19, 37, and 53. Genotype 8 and 4 were the dominant types detected in 67 (66.3%) and 25 (24.7%) of the samples, respectively. Other five genotypes (3, 11, 19, 37, 53) were detected in 9 (8.9%) samples. Genotype and seasonal differences observed throughout the study. Human adenoviruse (HAdV)-8 was the most frequent type, except 2008. The prevalence of genotype 4 increased starting from 2006, became dominant in 2008 and decreased in the following years. The peak season was mostly spring months, although it was possible to detect positive samples throughout the year. In conclusion, genotype 8 followed by genotype 4 was the most frequent adenoviral types causing conjunctivitis during the 5-year study period. Findings suggest that there is a slow shift between genotypes throughout the years.

  4. The understanding and experience of mixed emotions in 3-5-year-old children.

    PubMed

    Smith, Joshua P; Glass, Daniel J; Fireman, Gary

    2015-01-01

    The term mixed emotions refers to the presence of two opposite-valence emotions toward a single target. Identifying when children begin to report experiencing and understanding mixed emotions is critical in identifying how skills such as adaptive functioning, coping strategies, environmental understanding, and socioemotional competence emerge. Prior research has shown that children as young as 5 years old can understand and experience mixed emotion, but perhaps appropriately sensitive methodologies can reveal these abilities in younger children. The present study evaluated 57 children between 3 and 5 years old for mixed emotion experience and understanding using an animated video clip in which a character experiences a mixed emotional episode. Ordinal logistic regression was utilized to examine the relation of gender, attention, and understanding of content to experience and understanding of mixed emotion. While only 12% of children reported experiencing mixed emotion while watching the clip, 49% of children-some as young as 3 years old-were able to recognize the mixed emotional experience of the character. Thus, mixed emotion understanding emerges earlier than previously identified and the expression of understanding may develop independently of the ability to report mixed emotion experience. These findings are discussed in relation to cognitive and developmental considerations.

  5. EPIDEMIOLOGY OF ROTAVIRUS DIARRHEA AMONG CHILDREN AGED LESS THAN 5 YEARS IN RURAL SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA.

    PubMed

    Ramos, José M; Alegria, Iñaki; Tessema, Dalu; Mohamed, Nuri; Tissiano, Gabrel; Fano, Haji; Yohannes, Tafese; Gosa, Ashenafi; Tesfamariam, Abraham; Reyes, Francisco

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological and clinical features of rotavirus infection among children aged less than 5 years in rural southern Ethiopia. We conducted a hospital-based, prospective study among children aged less than 5 years with acute diarrhea and moderate to severe dehydration attending the outpatient department of Gambo Rural Hospital, Ethiopia during September-November 2012. Three hundred fourteen children were included in the study, of whom 137 (43.6%) had rotavirus infection. The average age of children with rotavirus infection was lower than those without it [odds ratio (OR): 0.94]. Finding severe dehydration on skin pinch test (adjusted OR: 3.76) and having diarrhea for !3 days (adjusted OR: 2.50) were associated with rotavirus infection. The mortality rate was 4.4% among rotavirus infection children and 0% among non-rotavirus diarrhea cases (p=0.006). Rotavirus infection should be suspected in children with severe dehydration on a skin pinch test and among those presenting with diarrhea for 3 days in rural southern Ethiopia. PMID:26521516

  6. Bacterial Uropathogens Isolates and Antibiograms in Children Under 5 Years of Age

    PubMed Central

    Alsammani, Mohamed Alkhatim; Ahmed, Mohamed Issa; Abdelatif, Nahla Farouk

    2014-01-01

    Background: Childhood urinary infections are among the most common febrile illnesses occurring during this period with varying susceptibility to antibiotic. Aim: The aim of this study was to identify uropathogens responsible to for urinarytract infection (UTIs) in children less than 5 years of age, and determine the antibiograms of the isolates to commonly used antibiotics. Patients and methods: Hundred and four children (2 months - 5 years old) seen at the Gadarif Teaching Hospital from January 2012 and December 2013 were evaluated. A urine specimen was obtained by a plastic bag with an adhesive backing around an opening or by direct voiding into sterile container. Urine was examined microscopically and those with significant pyuria and bacteruria were further cultured and microorganisms were identified and tested for antimicrobial susceptibility. Results: Out of 304 children suffering from UTIs; 145(47.7%) had significant pyuria of them; 54(17.8 %) had positive bacterial growth. The frequency of sex and residency were almost the same. E. coli (42.6%) was the most common uropathogen, sensitive to ciprofloxacin (91.3%), followed by Pseudomonas aeruginosa (29.6%) sensitive to Ciprofloxacin (75%)and Norofloxacin (68.8%), Klebsiellapneumoniae (18.5%) sensitive to Ciprofloxacin and Norofloxacin and Nalidixic acid (90%) and Proteus mirabilis sensitive to Ciprofloxacin and Norofloxacin (90%), Amoxicillin / clavulanic acid (Augmentin(80%). Conclusion: The most common uropathogens were E. coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa,Klebsiellapneumoniae, and Proteus mirabilis. Ciprofloxacin is the recommended initial empirical therapy while awaiting the culture and sensitivity results. PMID:25568544

  7. Radiometric calibration stability of the EO-1 advanced land imager: 5 years on-orbit

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Markham, B.L.; Ong, L.; Barsi, J.A.; Mendenhall, J.A.; Lencioni, D.E.; Helder, D.L.; Hollaren, D.M.; Morfitt, R.

    2006-01-01

    The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) was developed as a prototype sensor for follow on missions to Landsat-7. It was launched in November 2000 on the Earth Observing One (EO-1) satellite as a nominal one-year technology demonstration mission. As of this writing, the sensor has continued to operate in excess of 5 years. Six of the ALl's nine multi-spectral (MS) bands and the panchromatic band have similar spectral coverage as those on the Landsat-7 ETM+. In addition to on-board lamps, which have been significantly more stable than the lamps on ETM+, the ALI has a solar diffuser and has imaged the moon monthly since launch. This combined calibration dataset allows understanding of the radiometric stability of the ALI system, its calibrators and some differentiation of the sources of the changes with time. The solar dataset is limited as the mechanism controlling the aperture to the solar diffuser failed approximately 18 months after launch. Results over 5 years indicate that: the shortest wavelength band (443 nm) has degraded in response about 2%; the 482 nm and 565 nm bands decreased in response about 1%; the 660 nm, 790 nm and 868 nm bands each degraded about 5%; the 1250 nm and 1650 nm bands did not change significantly and the 2215 nm band increased in response about 2%.

  8. Radiometric calibration stability of the EO-1 Advanced Land Imager: 5 years on-orbit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markham, Brian L.; Ong, Lawrence; Barsi, Julia A.; Mendenhall, Jeffrey A.; Lencioni, Donald E.; Helder, Dennis L.; Hollaren, Douglas M.; Morfitt, Ron

    2006-09-01

    The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) was developed as a prototype sensor for follow on missions to Landsat-7. It was launched in November 2000 on the Earth Observing One (EO-1) satellite as a nominal one-year technology demonstration mission. As of this writing, the sensor has continued to operate in excess of 5 years. Six of the ALI's nine multi-spectral (MS) bands and the panchromatic band have similar spectral coverage as those on the Landsat-7 ETM+. In addition to on-board lamps, which have been significantly more stable than the lamps on ETM+, the ALI has a solar diffuser and has imaged the moon monthly since launch. This combined calibration dataset allows understanding of the radiometric stability of the ALI system, its calibrators and some differentiation of the sources of the changes with time. The solar dataset is limited as the mechanism controlling the aperture to the solar diffuser failed approximately 18 months after launch. Results over 5 years indicate that: the shortest wavelength band (443 nm) has degraded in response about 2%; the 482 nm and 565 nm bands decreased in response about 1%; the 660 nm, 790 nm and 868 nm bands each degraded about 5%; the 1250 nm and 1650 nm bands did not change significantly and the 2215 nm band increased in response about 2%.

  9. [Bocavirus in infants under 5 years with acute respiratory infection. Chaco Province, Argentina, 2014].

    PubMed

    Deluca, Gerardo D; Urquijo, María Cecilia; Passarella, Carolina; Picón, César; Picón, Dimas; Acosta, María; Rovira, Carina; Marín, Héctor M

    2016-01-01

    Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is the most frequent pathology along human life, being the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of bocavirus (BoV) in infants under 5 years with symptoms of ARI from north Argentina (Chaco province). The study was performed on nasopharyngeal aspirates from 488 patients, in the period of January-December 2014. The samples were tested by real time PCR and 36 positive BoV cases (7.4%) were detected. The period with the highest detection rate was June-September with 28 cases (77.8%), of which 26 (72.2%) were infants between 6-18 moths of life. In half of BoV positive cases this virus was detected as single infection of the upper respiratory tract, and in the remaining 50%, as concomitant infection with other microorganisms. To our knowledge, this would be the first study on molecular epidemiology of BoV in northern Argentina. We emphasize the importance of investigating these new viruses capable of generating acute respiratory disease and also to disseminate awareness on their circulation within the community.

  10. Body composition during fetal development and infancy through the age of 5 years.

    PubMed

    Toro-Ramos, T; Paley, C; Pi-Sunyer, F X; Gallagher, D

    2015-12-01

    Fetal body composition is an important determinant of body composition at birth, and it is likely to be an important determinant at later stages in life. The purpose of this work is to provide a comprehensive overview by presenting data from previously published studies that report on body composition during fetal development in newborns and the infant/child through 5 years of age. Understanding the changes in body composition that occur both in utero and during infancy and childhood, and how they may be related, may help inform evidence-based practice during pregnancy and childhood. We describe body composition measurement techniques from the in utero period to 5 years of age, and identify gaps in knowledge to direct future research efforts. Available literature on chemical and cadaver analyses of fetal studies during gestation is presented to show the timing and accretion rates of adipose and lean tissues. Quantitative and qualitative aspects of fetal lean and fat mass accretion could be especially useful in the clinical setting for diagnostic purposes. The practicality of different pediatric body composition measurement methods in the clinical setting is discussed by presenting the assumptions and limitations associated with each method that may assist the clinician in characterizing the health and nutritional status of the fetus, infant and child. It is our hope that this review will help guide future research efforts directed at increasing the understanding of how body composition in early development may be associated with chronic diseases in later life. PMID:26242725

  11. Lyme arthritis in a 12-year-old patient after a latency period of 5 years.

    PubMed

    Albert, S; Schulze, J; Riegel, H; Brade, V

    1999-01-01

    Lyme arthritis (LA) may be confused with other rheumatic diseases, particularly in the absence of a history of erythema migrans (EM). We report the case of a 12-year-old patient who developed a large effusion of the right knee joint. The titer for antinuclear antibodies was 1:80 and the test for rheumatoid factor was negative. Investigations for antibody response to Borrelia burgdorferi demonstrated remarkable elevation of IgG antibody and no specific IgM response. These results were confirmed by immunoblotting reactivity with the bands p83/100, p58, p43, p41, p39, OspA, p30, OspC, p21, and p17. We subsequently learned that the child had suffered a tick bite followed by an EM 5 years earlier and had been treated with trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole at that time. The patient now was given intravenous ceftriaxone, 2 g daily for 14 days. In the absence of clinical improvement 3 weeks later a knee joint aspiration was performed which resulted in a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for B. burgdorferi DNA (OspA) in the synovial fluid. The patient fully recovered 2 months later without further treatment. The case indicates that the latency period between EM and onset of LA may last up to 5 years. In addition to serologic test methods, analysis of synovial fluid using PCR may be decisive for making the final diagnosis of LA.

  12. [Bocavirus in infants under 5 years with acute respiratory infection. Chaco Province, Argentina, 2014].

    PubMed

    Deluca, Gerardo D; Urquijo, María Cecilia; Passarella, Carolina; Picón, César; Picón, Dimas; Acosta, María; Rovira, Carina; Marín, Héctor M

    2016-01-01

    Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is the most frequent pathology along human life, being the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of bocavirus (BoV) in infants under 5 years with symptoms of ARI from north Argentina (Chaco province). The study was performed on nasopharyngeal aspirates from 488 patients, in the period of January-December 2014. The samples were tested by real time PCR and 36 positive BoV cases (7.4%) were detected. The period with the highest detection rate was June-September with 28 cases (77.8%), of which 26 (72.2%) were infants between 6-18 moths of life. In half of BoV positive cases this virus was detected as single infection of the upper respiratory tract, and in the remaining 50%, as concomitant infection with other microorganisms. To our knowledge, this would be the first study on molecular epidemiology of BoV in northern Argentina. We emphasize the importance of investigating these new viruses capable of generating acute respiratory disease and also to disseminate awareness on their circulation within the community. PMID:27295701

  13. An implantable neuroprosthesis for standing and walking in paraplegia: 5-year patient follow-up.

    PubMed

    Guiraud, David; Stieglitz, Thomas; Koch, Klaus Peter; Divoux, Jean-Louis; Rabischong, Pierre

    2006-12-01

    We present the results of a 5-year patient follow-up after implantation of an original neuroprosthesis. The system is able to stimulate both epimysial and neural electrodes in such a way that the complete flexor-extensor chain of the lower limb can be activated without using the withdrawal reflex. We demonstrate that standing and assisted walking are possible, and the results have remained stable for 5 years. Nevertheless, some problems were noted, particularly regarding the muscle response on the epimysial channels. Analysis of the electrical behaviour and thresholds indicated that the surgical phase is crucial because of the sensitivity of the functional responses to electrode placement. Neural stimulation proved to be more efficient and more stable over time. This mode requires less energy and provides more selective stimulation. This FES system can be improved to enable balanced standing and less fatiguing gait, but this will require feedback on event detection to trigger transitions between stimulation sequences, as well as feedback to the patient about the state of his lower limbs. PMID:17124330

  14. Aetiology and clinical features of dysentery in children aged <5 years in rural Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Ferdous, F; Ahmed, S; DAS, S K; Farzana, F D; Latham, J R; Chisti, M J; Faruque, A S G

    2014-01-01

    The study identified the common aetiological agents and prominent clinical features of dysentery cases in children aged <5 years and compared this to non-dysentery diarrhoeal cases from the same population. From January 2010 to December 2011, 2324 children aged <5 years received treatment at Kumudini Hospital, of which 682 (29%) presented with dysentery. Of the dysenteric children, aetiology could not be determined for over half (61%). Shigella spp. accounted for 32% of dysentery cases. Significant associations were found between presence of blood in stool and: child age (24-59 months) [odds ratio (OR) 2.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-3.27], no treatment of drinking water at home (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.09-3.67), vomiting (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.14-0.25), abdominal pain (OR 4.68, 95% CI 3.24-6.77), straining (OR 16.45, 95% CI 11.92-22.69), wasting (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.15-2.41), and presence of Shigella in stool (OR 6.25, 95% CI 4.20-9.29) after controlling for confounders. This study makes it clear that appropriate public health strategies are needed to reduce the burden of dysentery in Bangladesh.

  15. Factors associated with vaccination coverage in children < 5 years in Angola

    PubMed Central

    de Oliveira, Manuel Falcão Saturnino; Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Rocha, Juan Stuardo Yazlle

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze vaccination coverage and factors associated with a complete immunization scheme in children < 5 years old. METHODS This cross-sectional household census survey evaluated 1,209 children < 5 years old living in Bom Jesus, Angola, in 2010. Data were obtained from interviews, questionnaires, child immunization histories, and maternal health histories. The statistical analysis used generalized linear models, in which the dependent variable followed a binary distribution (vaccinated, unvaccinated) and the association function was logarithmic and had the children’s individual, familial, and socioeconomic factors as independent variables. RESULTS Vaccination coverage was 37.0%, higher in children < 1 year (55.0%) and heterogeneous across neighborhoods; 52.0% of children of both sexes had no immunization records. The prevalence rate of vaccination significantly varied according to child age, mother’s level of education, family size, ownership of household appliances, and destination of domestic waste. CONCLUSIONS Vulnerable groups with vaccination coverage below recommended levels continue to be present. Some factors indicate inequalities that represent barriers to full immunization, indicating the need to implement more equitable policies. The knowledge of these factors contributes to planning immunization promotion measures that focus on the most vulnerable groups. PMID:26039393

  16. Composite vertical bite reconstructions in eroded dentitions after 5·5 years: a case series.

    PubMed

    Attin, T; Filli, T; Imfeld, C; Schmidlin, P R

    2012-01-01

    In the following case series, we report on six cases of erosive worn dentitions (75 posterior teeth), which have been reconstructed using a template-based technique with direct composite resin restorations and already examined after 3 years in service. In all patients either one or both tooth arches were completely restored using direct resin composite restorations. A wax-up-based template was used to avoid freehand build-up techniques and to ensure optimal anatomy and function. All patients were re-assessed after a mean service time of 5·5 years (mean 67 ± 4 months) using United States Public Health Service criteria. The overall quality of the restorations was good with predominantly 'alpha' and 'bravo' scores, respectively. However, the restorations showed some deterioration with respect to marginal quality, marginal discoloration, surface texture and anatomy as compared to the 3-year investigation. The marginal impairments could be resolved by polishing. It is concluded that this non-invasive technique provides a possible treatment option at least for the displayed observation period of 5·5 years. PMID:21827523

  17. The influence of a triclosan toothpaste on adverse events in patients with cardiovascular disease over 5-years.

    PubMed

    Cullinan, Mary P; Palmer, Janet E; Carle, Anne D; West, Malcolm J; Westerman, Bill; Seymour, Gregory J

    2015-03-01

    Adverse effects of long-term usage of triclosan-containing toothpaste in humans are currently unknown. We assessed the effect of long-term use of 0.3% triclosan-toothpaste on serious adverse events (SAEs) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). 438 patients with a history of stable CVD were entered into the 5-year longitudinal Cardiovascular and Periodontal Study at Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Australia and randomised into test (triclosan) or placebo groups. There were no significant differences in demographics or clinical features between the groups. Patients were examined at baseline, and annually for 5-years. SAEs were classified according to the System Organ Classes defined by MedDRA (Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities). Results were analysed using chi square and Kaplan Meier analysis. Overall, 232 patients (123 in the triclosan group; 109 in the placebo group) experienced 569 SAEs (288 in the triclosan group and 281 in the placebo group). There was no significant difference between the groups in numbers of patients experiencing SAEs (p=0.35) or specific cardiovascular SAEs (p=0.82), nor in time to the first SAE or first cardiovascular SAE, irrespective of gender, age or BMI after adjusting for multiple comparisons (p>0.05). The adjusted odds of experiencing an SAE were estimated to increase by 2.7% for each year of age (p=0.02) and the adjusted odds of experiencing a cardiovascular SAE were estimated to increase by 5.1% for each unit increase in BMI (p=0.02). Most cardiovascular events were related to unstable angina or myocardial infarcts, 21 were associated with arrhythmia and 41 were vascular events such as aortic aneurysm and cerebrovascular accident. Within the limitations of the present study the data suggest that the use of triclosan-toothpaste may not be associated with any increase in SAEs in this CVD population. The long-term impact of triclosan on hormone-related disease, such as cancer, in humans remains to be determined

  18. The influence of a triclosan toothpaste on adverse events in patients with cardiovascular disease over 5-years.

    PubMed

    Cullinan, Mary P; Palmer, Janet E; Carle, Anne D; West, Malcolm J; Westerman, Bill; Seymour, Gregory J

    2015-03-01

    Adverse effects of long-term usage of triclosan-containing toothpaste in humans are currently unknown. We assessed the effect of long-term use of 0.3% triclosan-toothpaste on serious adverse events (SAEs) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). 438 patients with a history of stable CVD were entered into the 5-year longitudinal Cardiovascular and Periodontal Study at Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Australia and randomised into test (triclosan) or placebo groups. There were no significant differences in demographics or clinical features between the groups. Patients were examined at baseline, and annually for 5-years. SAEs were classified according to the System Organ Classes defined by MedDRA (Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities). Results were analysed using chi square and Kaplan Meier analysis. Overall, 232 patients (123 in the triclosan group; 109 in the placebo group) experienced 569 SAEs (288 in the triclosan group and 281 in the placebo group). There was no significant difference between the groups in numbers of patients experiencing SAEs (p=0.35) or specific cardiovascular SAEs (p=0.82), nor in time to the first SAE or first cardiovascular SAE, irrespective of gender, age or BMI after adjusting for multiple comparisons (p>0.05). The adjusted odds of experiencing an SAE were estimated to increase by 2.7% for each year of age (p=0.02) and the adjusted odds of experiencing a cardiovascular SAE were estimated to increase by 5.1% for each unit increase in BMI (p=0.02). Most cardiovascular events were related to unstable angina or myocardial infarcts, 21 were associated with arrhythmia and 41 were vascular events such as aortic aneurysm and cerebrovascular accident. Within the limitations of the present study the data suggest that the use of triclosan-toothpaste may not be associated with any increase in SAEs in this CVD population. The long-term impact of triclosan on hormone-related disease, such as cancer, in humans remains to be determined.

  19. Lung Cancer Survival Prediction using Ensemble Data Mining on Seer Data

    DOE PAGES

    Agrawal, Ankit; Misra, Sanchit; Narayanan, Ramanathan; Polepeddi, Lalith; Choudhary, Alok

    2012-01-01

    We analyze the lung cancer data available from the SEER program with the aim of developing accurate survival prediction models for lung cancer. Carefully designed preprocessing steps resulted in removal/modification/splitting of several attributes, and 2 of the 11 derived attributes were found to have significant predictive power. Several supervised classification methods were used on the preprocessed data along with various data mining optimizations and validations. In our experiments, ensemble voting of five decision tree based classifiers and meta-classifiers was found to result in the best prediction performance in terms of accuracy and area under the ROC curve. We have developedmore » an on-line lung cancer outcome calculator for estimating the risk of mortality after 6 months, 9 months, 1 year, 2 year and 5 years of diagnosis, for which a smaller non-redundant subset of 13 attributes was carefully selected using attribute selection techniques, while trying to retain the predictive power of the original set of attributes. Further, ensemble voting models were also created for predicting conditional survival outcome for lung cancer (estimating risk of mortality after 5 years of diagnosis, given that the patient has already survived for a period of time), and included in the calculator. The on-line lung cancer outcome calculator developed as a result of this study is available at http://info.eecs.northwestern.edu:8080/LungCancerOutcomeCalculator/.« less

  20. 5-year Angiographic and Clinical Follow-up of Coil-embolised Intradural Saccular Aneurysms

    PubMed Central

    Batista, LL.; Mahadevan, J.; Sachet, M.; Alvarez, H.; Rodesch, G.; Lasjaunias, P.

    2002-01-01

    Summary The purpose of the paper is the follow-up of embolised intradural saccular Arterial Aneurysms (AA), excluding giant, dissecting, inflammatory, fusiform or AA associated to BVAM. Since its introduction in 1991, the Guglielmi Detachable Coil has offered protection against aneurysmal rebleeding in the critical few days and months after SAH regardless of the grade. A number of questions remain: is complete angiographic obliteration necessary at first embolisation? What duration of clinical / angiographic follow-up (FU) is required to ensure the risk of haemorrhage has been eliminated? What is the long-term protection against rebleeding? One hundred and two patients with 160 intradural saccular AA embolised before april 1997 were selected for this study. They had at least 5-yrs clinical FU, of which 22 patients had a midterm (3 years) and 45 patients had a 5year or more angiographic FU (mean 67,7 months per patient). Twenty-eight embolised AAs with 100% occlusion at 1 year, remained unchanged on the 5year angiograms. A further 14 patients with complete occlusion at 1 year showed persisting complete occlusion on angiogram at 3-years FU, which in our series means that complete occlusion after the first year post-embolisation implies that the aneurysm will remain completely occluded. All secondary spontaneous thromboses (27.6% of cases), occurred during the first year pos-embolisation. In six patients with subtotal or partial occlusion no change was seen for three consecutive years of FU; none showed later change at 5-year angiography. Below 80% occlusion our series does not provide enough information but we consider the situation instable. No mortality related to the procedure was observed in the unruptured AA group. No bleeding or re-bleeding has occurred since the beginning of our experience (1993) in saccular AA treated by GDC-Coil. Coil-embolisation of properly selected patients is effective in protecting against bleeding or re-bleeding at short and long

  1. Estimation of the non-isothermal inactivation patterns of Bacillus sporothermodurans IC4 spores in soups from their isothermal survival data.

    PubMed

    Periago, P M; van Zuijlen, A; Fernandez, P S; Klapwijk, P M; ter Steeg, P F; Corradini, M G; Peleg, M

    2004-09-01

    The isothermal survival curves of the heat resistant spores of Bacillus sporothermodurans IC4, in the range of 117-125 degrees C, were determined in chicken, mushroom and pea soups by the capillary method. They were all non-linear with a noticeable upper concavity and could be described by the equation log(10) [N(t)/N(0)]=-b(T)t(n) with a fixed power, n, of the order of 0.7-0.8. The temperature dependence of b(T) could be described by the equation b(T)=log(e)[1+exp[k(T-T(c))

  2. Population-based study of ovarian cancer in Côte d'Or: prognostic factors and trends in relative survival rates over the last 20 years

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The aim of this population-based study was to assess independent prognostic factors in ovarian cancer using relative survival (RS) and to investigate changes in RS rates from 1982 to 2005. Methods Data on 748 patients with ovarian cancer were provided by the Côte d'Or gynaecologic cancer registry. The RS was estimated using a generalized linear model with a Poisson error structure. Relative survival and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were described at the following specific time points 1, 3 and 5 years. The effect of prognostic factors on survival was assessed with multivariate analyses of RS. Results The median follow-up was 12 years. The RS rates at 1, 3 and 5 years were 81%, 55% and 44%, respectively. As compared with the period 1982-1989, an improvement in survival was found for the period 1998-2005: HR = 0.52[0.40-0.67]. Women who lived in urban areas had better RS: HR = 0.82[0.67-0.99]. Patients with epithelial types of ovarian cancer other than mucinous or endometrioid cancer had worse RS than those with serous histology. Age ≥ 70 years was associated with lower survival. Conclusions Period of diagnosis, stage at diagnosis, histology, place of residence and age were independent prognostic factors for survival in ovarian cancer. An improvement in the survival rate was observed after 1998 but a significant improvement was limited to advanced stage cancers. PMID:21067600

  3. Doubly robust survival trees.

    PubMed

    Steingrimsson, Jon Arni; Diao, Liqun; Molinaro, Annette M; Strawderman, Robert L

    2016-09-10

    Estimating a patient's mortality risk is important in making treatment decisions. Survival trees are a useful tool and employ recursive partitioning to separate patients into different risk groups. Existing 'loss based' recursive partitioning procedures that would be used in the absence of censoring have previously been extended to the setting of right censored outcomes using inverse probability censoring weighted estimators of loss functions. In this paper, we propose new 'doubly robust' extensions of these loss estimators motivated by semiparametric efficiency theory for missing data that better utilize available data. Simulations and a data analysis demonstrate strong performance of the doubly robust survival trees compared with previously used methods. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:27037609

  4. Full-mouth rehabilitation of Class II deep-bite patient: A 5-year clinical report

    PubMed Central

    Ergun, Gulfem; Bozkaya, Erdal

    2016-01-01

    This case report demonstrates the full-mouth rehabilitation of a 45-year-old male patient with severe deep-bite by increasing vertical dimension. The technique of anterior maxillary osteotomy performed in the present situation has been found to be effective, requiring anterior and inferior repositioning of the anterior maxilla to provide an esthetic and functional implant supported fixed prosthesis. Four months after surgery, the fixation system was removed, and 6 dental implants were placed. The anterior and inferior movements of the segment allowed for natural tooth anatomy and size in the definitive implant supported partial fixed prosthesis. A satisfactory functional and esthetic result was obtained after 5 years of follow-up. PMID:27403066

  5. Delayed Replantation after Endodontic and Fluoride Treatment: A 5-Year Follow-up

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Abi Mathew; Akkara, Francis; Fernandes, Kristlee Sabrin

    2011-01-01

    Aim To evaluate if endodontic and fluoride treatment of the root before delayed replantation would render the tooth a favorable prognosis. Methods A 10-year-old boy reported 10 hours after he had avulsed his maxillary right permanent central incisor. The pulp and PDL cells were considered to be nonviable. Endodontic treatment for the tooth was performed extraorally and obturated with gutta-percha. Prior to replantation, the root was treated with 1.23% APSF for 15 minutes. Result An intraoral radiograph taken 6 months after replantation revealed narrowing of the PDL space around the replanted tooth due to apposition from the surrounding alveolar bone. A radiograph taken 5 years after replantation revealed no evidence of external root resorption. There was no abnormal mobility either. Conclusion Extraoral endodontic treatment and root treatment with 1.23% APSF prior to delayed replantation might prevent the occurrence of external root resorption.

  6. Constraints on the Time Variation of the Fine Structure Constant by the 5-Year WMAP Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakashima, M.; Nagata, R.; Yokoyama, J.

    2008-12-01

    The constraints on the time variation of the fine structure constant at recombination epoch relative to its present value, Δα/α ≡ (α_{rec} - α_{now})/α_{now}, are obtained from the analysis of the 5-year WMAP cosmic microwave background data. As a result of Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo analysis, it is found that, contrary to the analysis based on the previous WMAP data, the mean value of Δα/α = -0.0009 does not change significantly whether we use the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) measurement of the Hubble parameter as a prior or not. The resultant 95% confidence ranges of Δα/α are -0.028 < Δα/α < 0.026 with HST prior and -0.050 < Δα/α < 0.042 without HST prior.

  7. [The geriatric psychiatric day hospital: an analysis of 5 years of activities].

    PubMed

    Trifonov, E G; Ognev, A E

    1997-01-01

    233 patients (53 men and 180 women) at the age of 60 years and older were treated in day gerontopsychiatric out-patient clinic for 5 years. 60-69 year old patients prevailed (146 individuals). Nearly all mental diseases characteristic for the old age were found in such patients; majority of patients suffered from schizophrenia (31.3%) and affective pathology (25.8%). Vascular form of dementia prevailed among the patients with dementia while atrophic degenerative dementia was rarely observed (2 patients). Syndromological distribution revealed that the main groups were formed by patients with depressions (41.6%) as well as individuals with neurosis- and psychopathic-like conditions (37.3%). Mental disorders with paranoid syndromes were observed in 8.6% of the patients. It is shown that day gerontopsychiatric out-patient clinic had some preferences in comparison with usual mental hospitals and psychoneurological out-patient clinic.

  8. Haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis: a cause of unresponsive malaria in a 5-year-old girl.

    PubMed

    Bhagat, Manish; Kanhere, Sujata; Kadakia, Purvi; Phadke, Varsha; George, Riya; Chaudhari, Kushagra

    2015-01-01

    A 5-year-old immunocompetent girl presented with fever, jaundice, hepatosplenomegaly and pancytopenia. The peripheral blood smear demonstrated mixed malaria infection (Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum). Fever was persistent despite antimalarials in the absence of any coexisting bacterial or viral infection. Laboratory findings included cytopaenia, hyperbilirubinaemia, hyperferritinaemia, hypertriglyceridaemia, hyponatraemia, deranged partial thromboplastin time, decreasing ESR and megaloblastic changes on bone marrow aspiration. A final diagnosis of haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) with megaloblastic anaemia associated with severe mixed malaria was made. There was a dramatic response to corticosteroid treatment with improvement in her clinical condition. This report endorses the use of corticosteroids in malaria-associated HLH whenever there is no clinical improvement with antimalarials alone. PMID:26744159

  9. Haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis: a cause of unresponsive malaria in a 5-year-old girl.

    PubMed

    Bhagat, Manish; Kanhere, Sujata; Kadakia Affiliation When The Manuscript Was Written Department Of Paediatrics K J Somaiya Medical College And Hospital Mumbai India, Purvi; Phadke, Varsha; George, Riya; Chaudhari, Kushagra

    2014-11-19

    A 5-year-old immunocompetent girl presented with fever, jaundice, hepatosplenomegaly and pancytopenia. The peripheral blood smear demonstrated mixed malaria infection (Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum). Fever was persistent despite antimalarials in the absence of any coexisting bacterial or viral infection. Laboratory findings included cytopaenia, hyperbilirubinaemia, hyperferritinaemia, hypertriglyceridaemia, hyponatraemia, deranged partial thromboplastin time, decreasing ESR and megaloblastic changes on bone marrow aspiration. A final diagnosis of haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) with megaloblastic anaemia associated with severe mixed malaria was made. There was a dramatic response to corticosteroid treatment with improvement in her clinical condition. This report endorses the use of corticosteroids in malaria-associated HLH whenever there is no clinical improvement with antimalarials alone. PMID:25410687

  10. Performance of the MIR Cooperative Solar Array After 2.5 Years in Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerslake, Thomas W.; Hoffman, David J.

    1999-01-01

    The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) was developed jointly by the United States and Russia to produce 6 kW of power for the Russian space station Mir. Four, multi-orbit test sequences were executed between June 1996 and December 1998 to measure MCSA electrical performance. A dedicated Fortran computer code was developed to analyze the detailed thermal-electrical performance of the MCSA. The computational performance results compared very favorably with the measured flight data in most cases. Minor performance degradation was detected in one current generating section of the MCSA. Yet overall, the flight data indicated the MCSA was meeting and exceeding performance expectations. There was no precipitous performance loss due to contamination or other causes after 2.5 years of operation. In this paper, we review the MCSA flight electrical performance tests, data and computational modeling and discuss findings from data comparisons with the computational results.

  11. The thermoregulatory theory of yawning: what we know from over 5 years of research

    PubMed Central

    Gallup, Andrew C.; Eldakar, Omar T.

    2012-01-01

    Over the past 5 years numerous reports have confirmed and replicated the specific brain cooling and thermal window predictions derived from the thermoregulatory theory of yawning, and no study has found evidence contrary to these findings. Here we review the comparative research supporting this model of yawning among homeotherms, while highlighting a recent report showing how the expression of contagious yawning in humans is altered by seasonal climate variation. The fact that yawning is constrained to a thermal window of ambient temperature provides unique and compelling support in favor of this theory. Heretofore, no existing alternative hypothesis of yawning can explain these results, which have important implications for understanding the potential functional role of this behavior, both physiologically and socially, in humans and other animals. In discussion we stress the broader applications of this work in clinical settings, and counter the various criticisms of this theory. PMID:23293583

  12. Atlantoaxial rotatory subluxation as a cause of torticollis in a 5-year-old girl.

    PubMed

    Bagouri, Elmunzar; Deshmukh, Sandeep; Lakshmanan, Palaniappan

    2014-05-15

    Many patients present to the emergency department complaining of a sore or stiff neck and lateral flexion of the neck with contralateral rotation. Under the pressure of the breaching time and busy shifts some of the patients are discharged to the care of their general practitioners without adequate investigations. While most of the cases are due to benign causes, torticollis can be due to many congenital and acquired pathologies, some of which may need further investigation and urgent management. Atlantoaxial subluxation (AAS), tumours of the base of the skull and infections are among these causes. Delayed diagnosis may lead to worsening neurology and complicate the management. We report a case of a 5-year-old girl who presented to our fracture clinic with a fractured clavicle and torticollis; her subsequent investigations confirmed the diagnosis of AAS. Our patient responded to non-operative treatment and improved with no neurological complications.

  13. Prevalence of oral habits in 563 Nigerian preschool children age 3-5 years.

    PubMed

    Onyeaso, C O; Sote, E O

    2001-12-01

    One of the contributory factors in the establishment of occlusion is the child's oral habits. A limited amount of information is available on oral habits of pre-school children especially on Nigerian pre-school children. With an increasing interest in the early recognition of mal-occlusion and a corresponding emphasis on preventive procedures, more information on pre-school children may prove to be useful. This study revealed the prevalence of oral habits among 563 Nigerian pre-school children aged 3-5 years at 13.14%: 6.74% for males, 6.4%for females. The acquired data were tested with chi-square(chi2). The results indicate significant gender difference for tongue thrusting/sucking only (P=0.01) using the fisher's exact test. The relationship between digital sucking habit and mal-occlusion was very significant (P<0.01).

  14. Salter-Harris type-IV displaced distal radius fracture in a 5-year-old.

    PubMed

    Huntley, Samuel R; Summers, Spencer H; Stricker, Stephen J

    2016-03-01

    Displaced Salter-Harris type-IV fractures are rare in young children and can result in articular incongruity or premature physeal arrest. We describe a 5-year-old boy who sustained a displaced left distal radial Salter-Harris type-IV fracture. The patient had normal wrist function and physeal growth at the 3-year postoperative follow-up. Our patient is by far the youngest reported child with a displaced Salter-Harris type-IV fracture of the distal radius. Prompt anatomic reduction and fixation of a displaced distal radial Salter-Harris type-IV fracture can result in excellent short-term wrist motion with maintenance of physeal function.

  15. Review of the surgical management of recurrent hiatal hernia: 5-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Henderson, R D; Marryatt, G; Henderson, R F

    1988-09-01

    Symptoms in patients with hiatal hernia often respond to treatment consisting of diet and medication. Operative procedures, designed to control gastroesophageal reflux and avoid surgically induced problems, are reserved for those with intractable symptoms. When these operative procedures fail, reoperation may be necessary. The reoperative procedure is often technically complex because of esophageal and gastric scar fixation. The authors reviewed the surgical management of recurrent hiatal hernia in 168 patients followed up to 5 years or more; 43 of them had undergone gastric surgery previously.Radiologically, 97% patients studied (142 of 146) had no evidence of anatomic recurrence or reflux post operatively. Manometric studies postoperatively in 114 patients showed that the mean tone of the high pressure zone was within the normal range and lower esophageal disordered motor activity was decreased by 34.5% from the preoperative level. Symptoms of recurrent hiatal hernia were abolished by operation in 88% of the patients; only 4.8% had serious or recurrent symptoms.

  16. Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex transmission is not associated with recent immigration (≤5 years) in Florida.

    PubMed

    Séraphin, Marie Nancy; Lauzardo, Michael

    2015-12-01

    As tuberculosis