Science.gov

Sample records for 95-percent confidence level

  1. IET. Aerial view of project, 95 percent complete. Camera facing ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    IET. Aerial view of project, 95 percent complete. Camera facing east. Left to right: stack, duct, mobile test cell building (TAN-624), four-rail track, dolly. Retaining wall between mobile test building and shielded control building (TAN-620) just beyond. North of control building are tank building (TAN-627) and fuel-transfer pump building (TAN-625). Guard house at upper right along exclusion fence. Construction vehicles and temporary warehouse in view near guard house. Date: June 6, 1955. INEEL negative no. 55-1462 - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Area North, Scoville, Butte County, ID

  2. Inference by Eye: Pictures of Confidence Intervals and Thinking about Levels of Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cumming, Geoff

    2007-01-01

    A picture of a 95% confidence interval (CI) implicitly contains pictures of CIs of all other levels of confidence, and information about the "p"-value for testing a null hypothesis. This article discusses pictures, taken from interactive software, that suggest several ways to think about the level of confidence of a CI, "p"-values, and what…

  3. Prospective Teachers' Problem Solving Skills and Self-Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gursen Otacioglu, Sena

    2008-01-01

    The basic objective of the research is to determine whether the education that prospective teachers in different fields receive is related to their levels of problem solving skills and self-confidence. Within the mentioned framework, the prospective teachers' problem solving and self-confidence levels have been examined under several variables.…

  4. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    PubMed

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p <.001. The items identified were those related to self-confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning. PMID:26599594

  5. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    PubMed

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p <.001. The items identified were those related to self-confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning.

  6. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C

    2007-11-07

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  7. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C; LaFreniere, D; Macintosh, B; Doyon, R

    2008-06-02

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  8. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High-Contrast Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marois, Christian; Lafrenière, David; Macintosh, Bruce; Doyon, René

    2008-01-01

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground- and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analyses have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follow a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil, this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fixed separation from the point-spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and noncoronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level (CL). In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding CL as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckle noise, a detection threshold up to 3 times higher is required to obtain a CL equivalent to that at 5 σ for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested on data acquired by simultaneous spectral differential imaging with TRIDENT and by angular differential imaging with NIRI. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. Finally, a power law is derived to predict the 1 - 3 × 10-7 CL detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise. Based on observations obtained at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), which is operated by the National Research Council of Canada, the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique of France, and the University of

  9. Mathematics Confidence, Grade-Level Choice, Gender, and Age in Preservice Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pearson, Lesley Knoth

    2012-01-01

    Problem: The purpose of the study was to determine whether teachers' mathematics confidence influenced their choice of grade level. The study also examined whether there was a difference in teachers' mathematics confidence based on their age or gender. Method: A 6-item Mathematics Survey was distributed to 83 single-and multiple-subject…

  10. Measuring Confidence Levels of Male and Female Students in Open Access Enabling Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atherton, Mirella

    2015-01-01

    The study of confidence was undertaken at the University of Newcastle with students selecting science courses at two campuses. The students were enrolled in open access programs and aimed to gain access to undergraduate studies in various disciplines at University. The "third person effect" was used to measure the confidence levels of…

  11. Effect of CALIPSO Cloud Aerosol Discrimination (CAD) Confidence Levels on Observations of Aerosol Properties near Clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, Weidong; Marshak, Alexander; Varnai, Tamas; Liu, Zhaoyan

    2012-01-01

    CALIPSO aerosol backscatter enhancement in the transition zone between clouds and clear sky areas is revisited with particular attention to effects of data selection based on the confidence level of cloud-aerosol discrimination (CAD). The results show that backscatter behavior in the transition zone strongly depends on the CAD confidence level. Higher confidence level data has a flatter backscatter far away from clouds and a much sharper increase near clouds (within 4 km), thus a smaller transition zone. For high confidence level data it is shown that the overall backscatter enhancement is more pronounced for small clear-air segments and horizontally larger clouds. The results suggest that data selection based on CAD reduces the possible effects of cloud contamination when studying aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds.

  12. An Examination of Teacher's Occupational Burnout Levels in Terms of Organizational Confidence and Some Other Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caglar, Caglar

    2011-01-01

    An effort is made in this research to determine the correlations between primary school teachers' levels of confidence in their organization and their burnout levels and other variables. The research population is composed of teachers teaching in the primary schools located in the city center of Adiyaman in 2009-2010 academic year whereas the…

  13. Confidence level in performing clinical procedures among medical officers in nonspecialist government hospitals in Penang, Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Othman, Mohamad Sabri; Merican, Hassan; Lee, Yew Fong; Ch'ng, Kean Siang; Thurairatnam, Dharminy

    2015-03-01

    A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted at 3 government hospitals over 6 months to evaluate the confidence level of medical officers (MOs) to perform clinical procedure in nonspecialist government hospitals in Penang. An anonymous self-administered questionnaire in English was designed based on the elective and emergency procedures stated in the houseman training logbook. The questionnaire was distributed to the MOs from Penang State Health Department through the respective hospital directors and returned to Penang State Health Department on completion. The results showed that there was statistically significant difference between those who had undergone 12 months and 24 months as houseman in performing both elective and emergency procedures. MOs who had spent 24 months as housemen expressed higher confidence level than those who had only 12 months of experience. We also found that the confidence level was statistically and significantly influenced by visiting specialist and working together with cooperative experienced paramedics.

  14. Motor onset and diagnosis in Huntington disease using the diagnostic confidence level.

    PubMed

    Liu, Dawei; Long, Jeffrey D; Zhang, Ying; Raymond, Lynn A; Marder, Karen; Rosser, Anne; McCusker, Elizabeth A; Mills, James A; Paulsen, Jane S

    2015-12-01

    Huntington disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by motor dysfunction, cognitive deterioration, and psychiatric symptoms, with progressive motor impairments being a prominent feature. The primary objectives of this study are to delineate the disease course of motor function in HD, to provide estimates of the onset of motor impairments and motor diagnosis, and to examine the effects of genetic and demographic variables on the progression of motor impairments. Data from an international multisite, longitudinal observational study of 905 prodromal HD participants with cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) repeats of at least 36 and with at least two visits during the followup period from 2001 to 2012 was examined for changes in the diagnostic confidence level from the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale. HD progression from unimpaired to impaired motor function, as well as the progression from motor impairment to diagnosis, was associated with the linear effect of age and CAG repeat length. Specifically, for every 1-year increase in age, the risk of transition in diagnostic confidence level increased by 11% (95% CI 7-15%) and for one repeat length increase in CAG, the risk of transition in diagnostic confidence level increased by 47% (95% CI 27-69%). Findings show that CAG repeat length and age increased the likelihood of the first onset of motor impairment as well as the age at diagnosis. Results suggest that more accurate estimates of HD onset age can be obtained by incorporating the current status of diagnostic confidence level into predictive models.

  15. Tables for Trials and Failures with PD for Designated Confidence Level

    SciTech Connect

    Leach, Janice

    2014-02-01

    Two attachments are provided for performance testing of sensors and other Physical Protection System (PPS) components. The first attachment is a table of Trials and Failures, giving Probability of Detection (PD) for a designated confidence level and sorted by trials. The second attachment contains the same data, sorted by failures.

  16. Association Between Time Spent Interpreting, Level of Confidence and Accuracy of Screening Mammography

    PubMed Central

    Carney, Patricia A.; Bogart, Andy; Geller, Berta M.; Haneuse, Sebastian; Kerlikowske, Karla; Buist, Diana SM; Smith, Robert; Rosenberg, Robert; Yankaskas, Bonnie C.; Onega, Tracy; Miglioretti, Diana L.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To examine the effect of time spent viewing images and level of confidence on a screening mammography test set on interpretive performance. Materials and Methods Radiologists from six mammography registries participated in the study and were randomized to interpret one of four test sets and complete 12 survey questions. Each test set had 109 cases of digitized four-view screening film-screen mammograms with prior comparison screening views. Viewing time for each case was defined as the cumulative time spent viewing all mammographic images before recording which visible feature, if any, was the “most significant finding”. Log-linear regression fit via GEE was used to test the effect of viewing time and level of confidence in the interpretation on test set sensitivity and false-positive rate. Results 119 radiologists completed a test set and contributed data on 11,484 interpretations. Radiologists spent more time viewing cases that had significant findings or for which they had less confidence in interpretation. Each additional minute of viewing time increased the probability of a true positive interpretation among cancer cases by 1.12 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.19, p<0.001), regardless of confidence in the assessment. Among radiologists who were ‘very confident’ in their assessment, each additional minute of viewing time increased the adjusted risk of a false positive interpretation among non-cancer cases by 1.42 (95% CI 1.21, 1.68), and this viewing-time effect diminished with decreasing confidence. Conclusions Longer interpretation times and higher levels of confidence in the interpretation are both associated with higher sensitivity and false positive rates in mammography screening. PMID:22451568

  17. Gains in Content Knowledge, Confidence and Comfort Levels from a Physical Science Course

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Wormer, Laura; Sorrick, Roxanne

    2009-10-01

    Physical Science for Everyday Thinking (PSET) is a guided inquiry approach to teaching physical science. Pre and post survey data were collected during four years of using PSET. The course was taught in an intensive format at a small, private liberal arts college; at least half the students were education majors. The surveys assessed content knowledge and confidence in the answers, attitudes toward science and understanding of the process of learning science. Analysis indicated significant increases in content knowledge, confidence in content knowledge and comfort levels with physical science; also significant changes in identification as a science person, what is a fact, objectivity of scientists and science as a solitary pursuit.

  18. Is fear perception special? Evidence at the level of decision-making and subjective confidence

    PubMed Central

    Mobbs, Dean; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    Fearful faces are believed to be prioritized in visual perception. However, it is unclear whether the processing of low-level facial features alone can facilitate such prioritization or whether higher-level mechanisms also contribute. We examined potential biases for fearful face perception at the levels of perceptual decision-making and perceptual confidence. We controlled for lower-level visual processing capacity by titrating luminance contrasts of backward masks, and the emotional intensity of fearful, angry and happy faces. Under these conditions, participants showed liberal biases in perceiving a fearful face, in both detection and discrimination tasks. This effect was stronger among individuals with reduced density in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region linked to perceptual decision-making. Moreover, participants reported higher confidence when they accurately perceived a fearful face, suggesting that fearful faces may have privileged access to consciousness. Together, the results suggest that mechanisms in the prefrontal cortex contribute to making fearful face perception special. PMID:27405614

  19. A simple Bayesian approach to quantifying confidence level of adverse event incidence proportion in small samples.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fang

    2016-01-01

    In both clinical development and post-marketing of a new therapy or a new treatment, incidence of an adverse event (AE) is always a concern. When sample sizes are small, large sample-based inferential approaches on an AE incidence proportion in a certain time period no longer apply. In this brief discussion, we introduce a simple Bayesian framework to quantify, in small sample studies and the rare AE case, (1) the confidence level that the incidence proportion of a particular AE p is over or below a threshold, (2) the lower or upper bounds on p with a certain level of confidence, and (3) the minimum required number of patients with an AE before we can be certain that p surpasses a specific threshold, or the maximum allowable number of patients with an AE after which we can no longer be certain that p is below a certain threshold, given a certain confidence level. The method is easy to understand and implement; the interpretation of the results is intuitive. This article also demonstrates the usefulness of simple Bayesian concepts when it comes to answering practical questions. PMID:26098967

  20. Interexaminer reliability of cervical motion palpation using continuous measures and rater confidence levels

    PubMed Central

    Cooperstein, Robert; Young, Morgan; Haneline, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Motion palpators usually rate the movement of each spinal level palpated, and their reliability is assessed based upon discrete paired observations. We hypothesized that asking motion palpators to identify the most fixated cervical spinal level to allow calculating reliability at the group level might be a useful alternative approach. Methods: Three examiners palpated 29 asymptomatic supine participants for cervical joint hypomobility. The location of identified hypomobile sites was based on their distance from the T1 spinous process. Interexaminer concordance was estimated by calculating Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and mean absolute differences (MAD) values, stratified by degree of examiner confidence. Results: For the entire participant pool, ICC [2,1] = 0.61, judged “good.” MAD=1.35 cm, corresponding to mean interexaminer differences of about 75% of one cervical vertebral level. Stratification by examiner confidence levels resulted in small subgroups with equivocal results. Discussion and Conclusion: A continuous measures study methodology for assessing cervical motion palpation reliability showed more examiner concordance than was usually the case in previous studies using discrete methodology. PMID:23754861

  1. Undergraduate endodontic teaching in New Zealand: students' experience, perceptions and self-confidence levels.

    PubMed

    Murray, Colleen M; Chandler, Nicholas P

    2014-12-01

    The aim was to investigate undergraduate students' experiences, perceptions of future practice and self-rated confidence levels across endodontic tasks. After ethical approval, a survey involved all fourth and fifth year students. Quantitative data were analysed in SPSS version 20.0. Qualitative data were analysed using a general inductive approach. The participation rate was 84% (n = 136 of 162). The mean number of canals completed was 2.6 by fourth years and 10.4 by fifth years. Maxillary premolars were the most common first tooth treated. Pulpal factors and root morphology were the most common reasons for experiencing difficulty. Self-rated confidence levels were lower for the more junior students and complex procedures. Students felt that an increased use of extracted natural teeth would be beneficial in their pre-clinical practice. A high level of interest was shown in future specialisation in endodontics. Students may benefit from further didactic teaching or pre-clinical instruction in selected topics.

  2. Weighted least-squares algorithm for phase unwrapping based on confidence level in frequency domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shaohua; Yu, Jie; Yang, Cankun; Jiao, Shuai; Fan, Jun; Wan, Yanyan

    2015-12-01

    Phase unwrapping is a key step in InSAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry) processing, and its result may directly affect the accuracy of DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and ground deformation. However, the decoherence phenomenon such as shadows and layover, in the area of severe land subsidence where the terrain is steep and the slope changes greatly, will cause error transmission in the differential wrapped phase information, leading to inaccurate unwrapping phase. In order to eliminate the effect of the noise and reduce the effect of less sampling which caused by topographical factors, a weighted least-squares method based on confidence level in frequency domain is used in this study. This method considered to express the terrain slope in the interferogram as the partial phase frequency in range and azimuth direction, then integrated them into the confidence level. The parameter was used as the constraints of the nonlinear least squares phase unwrapping algorithm, to smooth the un-requirements unwrapped phase gradient and improve the accuracy of phase unwrapping. Finally, comparing with interferometric data of the Beijing subsidence area obtained from TerraSAR verifies that the algorithm has higher accuracy and stability than the normal weighted least-square phase unwrapping algorithms, and could consider to terrain factors.

  3. An Approach for Web Service Selection Based on Confidence Level of Decision Maker

    PubMed Central

    Khezrian, Mojtaba; Jahan, Ali; Wan Kadir, Wan Mohd Nasir; Ibrahim, Suhaimi

    2014-01-01

    Web services today are among the most widely used groups for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Service selection is one of the most significant current discussions in SOA, which evaluates discovered services and chooses the best candidate from them. Although a majority of service selection techniques apply Quality of Service (QoS), the behaviour of QoS-based service selection leads to service selection problems in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). In the existing works, the confidence level of decision makers is neglected and does not consider their expertise in assessing Web services. In this paper, we employ the VIKOR (VIšekriterijumskoKOmpromisnoRangiranje) method, which is absent in the literature for service selection, but is well-known in other research. We propose a QoS-based approach that deals with service selection by applying VIKOR with improvement of features. This research determines the weights of criteria based on user preference and accounts for the confidence level of decision makers. The proposed approach is illustrated by an example in order to demonstrate and validate the model. The results of this research may facilitate service consumers to attain a more efficient decision when selecting the appropriate service. PMID:24897426

  4. Effectiveness of a computerized educational module on nurses' knowledge and confidence level related to diabetes.

    PubMed

    Eaton-Spiva, Leeanna; Day, Angela

    2011-01-01

    A descriptive, quasi-experimental design, one-group pretest-posttest method was used to assess perceptions of nurses' knowledge in diabetes care and confidence in teaching diabetes education and to examine the effectiveness of a computer-based learning educational module on nurses' knowledge and confidence related to diabetes. Nurses had a slight improvement in knowledge, skill, and confidence related to diabetes after the computer-based learning intervention, but no statistically significant differences were found.

  5. Problem Solving Ability Confidence Levels among Student Teachers after a Semester in the Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krug, Kevin; Love, John; Mauzey, Ed; Dixon, Wayne

    2015-01-01

    Subjective confidence for solving classroom problems while instructing students in appropriate academic material is crucial for effective teaching. One way to develop problem solving confidence may result from the semester most education majors spend in the classroom as student teachers. The problem solving inventory (PSI) was given to university…

  6. Relationship between Teachers' ICT Competency, Confidence Level, and Satisfaction toward ICT Training Programmes: A Case Study among Postgraduate Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tasir, Zaidatun; Abour, Khawla Mohammed El Amin; Halim, Noor Dayana Abd; Harun, Jamalludin

    2012-01-01

    There are three main variables that would make the integration of ICT tools as an easy process. Those three variables are teachers' ICT competency, teachers' confidence level in using ICT, and teachers' satisfaction on ICT training programmes. This study investigated the relationships among these three variables and measured the levels of the…

  7. Understanding the Impact of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Training on Participants' Perceived Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nordheim, Shawn M.

    2013-01-01

    This pre-experimental, participatory action research study investigated the impact of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) training on participants' perceived confidence and willingness to initiate CPR. Parents of seventh and eighth grade students were surveyed. Parent participants were asked to watch the American Heart Association's Family and…

  8. Confidence intervals for similarity values determined for clonedSSU rRNA genes from environmental samples

    SciTech Connect

    Fields, M.W.; Schryver, J.C.; Brandt, C.C.; Yan, T.; Zhou, J.Z.; Palumbo, A.V.

    2007-04-02

    The goal of this research was to investigate the influenceof the error rate of sequence determination on the differentiation ofcloned SSU rRNA gene sequences for assessment of community structure. SSUrRNA cloned sequences from groundwater samples that represent differentbacterial divisions were sequenced multiple times with the samesequencing primer. From comparison of sequence alignments with unediteddata, confidence intervals were obtained from both a adouble binomial Tmodel of sequence comparison and by non-parametric methods. The resultsindicated that similarity values below 0.9946 arelikely derived fromdissimilar sequences at a confidence level of 0.95, and not sequencingerrors. The results confirmed that screening by direct sequencedetermination could be reliably used to differentiate at the specieslevel. However, given sequencing errors comparable to those seen in thisstudy, sequences with similarities above 0.9946 should be treated as thesame sequence if a 95 percent confidence is desired.

  9. Impact of training program on school nurses' confidence levels in managing and supporting students with epilepsy and seizures.

    PubMed

    Austin, Joan K; Kakacek, Jody R M; Carr, Deborah

    2010-12-01

    This article presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of an epilepsy-focused training program on school nurses. The Epilepsy Foundation and the National Association of School Nurses (NASN) created a training program titled "Managing Students with Seizures" to educate school nurses on strategies and resources that they can use to handle emergency situations effectively and to create a safe and supportive school environment for children with epilepsy and seizures. Before and after the training sessions, nurses answered questionnaires that measured their confidence levels in providing care for students with epilepsy and seizures; these questionnaires showed an improvement in nurses' confidence levels across all measures. Analysis was also carried out to identify program components and nurse subgroups associated with statistically significant improvements. An evaluation of satisfaction indicated overall satisfaction with the program. This article presents results from 1,080 complete surveys associated with the training in 2007.

  10. Trauma Simulation Training Increases Confidence Levels in Prehospital Personnel Performing Life-Saving Interventions in Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Archita D.; Meurer, David A.; Shuster, Jonathan J.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. Limited evidence is available on simulation training of prehospital care providers, specifically the use of tourniquets and needle decompression. This study focused on whether the confidence level of prehospital personnel performing these skills improved through simulation training. Methods. Prehospital personnel from Alachua County Fire Rescue were enrolled in the study over a 2- to 3-week period based on their availability. Two scenarios were presented to them: a motorcycle crash resulting in a leg amputation requiring a tourniquet and an intoxicated patient with a stab wound, who experienced tension pneumothorax requiring needle decompression. Crews were asked to rate their confidence levels before and after exposure to the scenarios. Timing of the simulation interventions was compared with actual scene times to determine applicability of simulation in measuring the efficiency of prehospital personnel. Results. Results were collected from 129 participants. Pre- and postexposure scores increased by a mean of 1.15 (SD 1.32; 95% CI, 0.88–1.42; P < 0.001). Comparison of actual scene times with simulated scene times yielded a 1.39-fold difference (95% CI, 1.25–1.55) for Scenario 1 and 1.59 times longer for Scenario 2 (95% CI, 1.43–1.77). Conclusion. Simulation training improved prehospital care providers' confidence level in performing two life-saving procedures. PMID:27563467

  11. Trauma Simulation Training Increases Confidence Levels in Prehospital Personnel Performing Life-Saving Interventions in Trauma Patients.

    PubMed

    Van Dillen, Christine M; Tice, Matthew R; Patel, Archita D; Meurer, David A; Tyndall, Joseph A; Elie, Marie Carmelle; Shuster, Jonathan J

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. Limited evidence is available on simulation training of prehospital care providers, specifically the use of tourniquets and needle decompression. This study focused on whether the confidence level of prehospital personnel performing these skills improved through simulation training. Methods. Prehospital personnel from Alachua County Fire Rescue were enrolled in the study over a 2- to 3-week period based on their availability. Two scenarios were presented to them: a motorcycle crash resulting in a leg amputation requiring a tourniquet and an intoxicated patient with a stab wound, who experienced tension pneumothorax requiring needle decompression. Crews were asked to rate their confidence levels before and after exposure to the scenarios. Timing of the simulation interventions was compared with actual scene times to determine applicability of simulation in measuring the efficiency of prehospital personnel. Results. Results were collected from 129 participants. Pre- and postexposure scores increased by a mean of 1.15 (SD 1.32; 95% CI, 0.88-1.42; P < 0.001). Comparison of actual scene times with simulated scene times yielded a 1.39-fold difference (95% CI, 1.25-1.55) for Scenario 1 and 1.59 times longer for Scenario 2 (95% CI, 1.43-1.77). Conclusion. Simulation training improved prehospital care providers' confidence level in performing two life-saving procedures. PMID:27563467

  12. An Analysis of Training Effects on School Personnel's Knowledge, Attitudes, Comfort, and Confidence Levels toward Educating Students about HIV/AIDS in Pennsylvania

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deutschlander, Sharon

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the training effects on school personnel's knowledge, attitudes, comfort, and confidence levels toward educating students about HIV/AIDS in Pennsylvania. The following four research questions were explored: (a) What is the knowledge, attitudes, confidence, and comfort levels of school personnel regarding…

  13. Information theoretic partitioning and confidence based weight assignment for multi-classifier decision level fusion in hyperspectral target recognition applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad, S.; Bruce, L. M.

    2007-04-01

    There is a growing interest in using multiple sources for automatic target recognition (ATR) applications. One approach is to take multiple, independent observations of a phenomenon and perform a feature level or a decision level fusion for ATR. This paper proposes a method to utilize these types of multi-source fusion techniques to exploit hyperspectral data when only a small number of training pixels are available. Conventional hyperspectral image based ATR techniques project the high dimensional reflectance signature onto a lower dimensional subspace using techniques such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA), Fisher's linear discriminant analysis (LDA), subspace LDA and stepwise LDA. While some of these techniques attempt to solve the curse of dimensionality, or small sample size problem, these are not necessarily optimal projections. In this paper, we present a divide and conquer approach to address the small sample size problem. The hyperspectral space is partitioned into contiguous subspaces such that the discriminative information within each subspace is maximized, and the statistical dependence between subspaces is minimized. We then treat each subspace as a separate source in a multi-source multi-classifier setup and test various decision fusion schemes to determine their efficacy. Unlike previous approaches which use correlation between variables for band grouping, we study the efficacy of higher order statistical information (using average mutual information) for a bottom up band grouping. We also propose a confidence measure based decision fusion technique, where the weights associated with various classifiers are based on their confidence in recognizing the training data. To this end, training accuracies of all classifiers are used for weight assignment in the fusion process of test pixels. The proposed methods are tested using hyperspectral data with known ground truth, such that the efficacy can be quantitatively measured in terms of target

  14. Exploring the Relationship between K-12 Public School Teachers' Conceptions of Assessment and Their Classroom Assessment Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ludwig, Naomi Wayne

    2014-01-01

    Studies have shown that teachers' beliefs influence their assessment practices. However, the overarching framework of those beliefs in relation to teachers' classroom assessment confidence has been largely unexamined. This research explored teachers' conceptions of assessment and their confidence regarding the implementation of sound classroom…

  15. The undergraduate preparation of dentists: Confidence levels of final year dental students at the School of Dentistry in Cardiff.

    PubMed

    Gilmour, A S M; Welply, A; Cowpe, J G; Bullock, A D; Jones, R J

    2016-09-23

    Objective To investigate the self-reported confidence and preparedness of final year undergraduate students in undertaking a range of clinical procedures.Methods A questionnaire was distributed to final year dental students at Cardiff University, six months prior to graduation. Respondents rated their confidence in undertaking 39 clinical procedures using a 5-point scale (1 = can undertake on own with confidence, 5 = unable to undertake). Students also responded yes/no to experiencing four difficulties and to three statements about general preparedness.Results 71% (N = 51) responded of which 55% (N = 28) were female. Over half reported being 'anxious that the supervisor was not helping enough' (57%) and 'relying heavily on supervisor for help' (53%). Eighty percent 'felt unprepared for the clinical work presented' and gender differences were most notable here (male: 65% N = 33; females: 93% N = 47). Mean confidence scores were calculated for each clinical procedure (1 = lowest; 5 = highest). Confidence was highest in performing 'simple scale' and 'fissure sealant' (mean-score = 5). Lowest scores were reported for 'surgical extractions involving a flap (mean-score = 2.28)', 'simple surgical procedures' (mean-score = 2.58) and the 'design/fit/adjustment of orthodontic appliances' (mean-score = 2.88).Conclusions As expected complex procedures that were least practised scored the lowest in overall mean confidence. Gender differences were noted in self-reported confidence for carrying out treatment unsupervised and feeling unprepared for clinical work.

  16. Confidence building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roederer, Juan G.

    Many conferences are being held on confidence building in many countries. Usually they are organized and attended by political scientists and science policy specialists. A remarkable exception, in which the main brainstorming was done by “grass roots” geophysicists, nuclear physicists, engineers and ecologists, was a meeting in July at St. John's College in Santa Fe, N. Mex.The aim of the conference Technology-Based Confidence Building: Energy and Environment was to survey programs of international cooperation in pertinent areas of mutual concern to all nations and to identify new initiatives that could contribute to enhanced international stability, with emphasis on cooperation between the U.S. and U.S.S.R.

  17. Developing a two-tiered instrument with confidence levels for assessing students' conceptions of Direct Current circuits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabah, Saed Ahmad

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a two-tier revised instrument (DIRECT-TTC) for measuring students understanding of Direct Current (DC) circuits and identifying their alternative conceptions. Another main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between students' understanding of DC circuits and their confidence in their answers. The revised instrument consists of 15 two-tier items with a confidence scale. Both the Rasch analysis and students' interviews were used in validating the instrument and obtaining evidences for the validity of inferences. Through a two-stage quantitative and qualitative validation process using both conventional statistics and Rasch modeling, the results indicate that the instrument is both valid and reliable. The results show a statistically significant association between students' answers to the first- tier questions and explanations, r = .65 (p< .01, N = 214). The second-tier questions provided substantial information about students' conceptions of DC circuits beyond that provided by the first-tier questions. This research shows that the more able students with regard to the construct of understanding DC circuits are more likely to be confident in their answers, r = +.39 (p< .01). Several Rasch calibrations and correlation analyses indicate that the more difficult items are associated with less confidence in the correct answers. On the other hand, the results show no statistically significant relationship between item difficulty and students' confidence specifically in their incorrect answers. The difficult items with high confidence on incorrect answers exhibit the stronger alternative conceptions of DC circuits. The alternative conceptions of voltage and resistance are among the very strong alternative conceptions of DC circuits. Implications for researchers and teachers as well as recommendations for future research are presented.

  18. Effect of Minimum Cell Sizes and Confidence Interval Sizes for Special Education Subgroups on School-Level AYP Determinations. Synthesis Report 61

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Mary Ann; Gong, Brian; Marion, Scott

    2006-01-01

    This study addresses three questions: First, considering the full group of students and the special education subgroup, what is the likely effect of minimum cell size and confidence interval size on school-level Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) determinations? Second, what effects do the changing minimum cell sizes have on inclusion of special…

  19. Entry-Level Athletic Trainers' Self-Confidence in Clinical Skill Preparedness for Treating Athletic and Emergent Settings Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morin, Gary E.; Misasi, Sharon; Davis, Charles; Hannah, Corey; Rothbard, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    Context: Clinical education is an important component of athletic training education. Concern exists regarding whether clinical experience adequately prepares students to perform professional skills after graduation, particularly with patients in emerging settings. Objective: To determine the confidence levels of athletic training graduates in…

  20. Second dose of MMR vaccine: health professionals' level of confidence in the vaccine and attitudes towards the second dose.

    PubMed

    Smith, A; McCann, R; McKinlay, I

    2001-12-01

    Public concerns have been raised about the safety of MMR vaccine following the publication of two studies linking the vaccine to inflammatory bowel disease and to a syndrome of Ileal-lymphoid-nodular hyperplasia, non-specific colitis and pervasive developmental disorder. Our study had two aims, to determine whether health professionals' confidence in MMR vaccine was affected and to assess professional knowledge and attitudes towards the second dose of MMR. In July 1998 we undertook a questionnaire survey of general practitioners, practice nurses and health visitors in an inner city area. A significant fall was found in professional confidence following the two publications and the subsequent media coverage (from 59.4% to 40.9%). Forty percent of respondents were unsure about the need for a second dose of MMR vaccine and more than one in ten professionals stated that it was not necessary. It is reasonable to assume that this reduced confidence in the safety of MMR and the professional uncertainty about the second dose have contributed to the observed decline in MMR uptake rates. More professional and public education appears to be needed.

  1. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  2. Predicting Systemic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falke, Stephanie Inez

    2009-01-01

    Using a mixed method approach, this study explored which educational factors predicted systemic confidence in master's level marital and family therapy (MFT) students, and whether or not the impact of these factors was influenced by student beliefs and their perception of their supervisor's beliefs about the value of systemic practice. One hundred…

  3. Deep XMM observations of Draco rule out at the 99 per cent confidence level a dark matter decay origin for the 3.5 keV line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeltema, Tesla; Profumo, Stefano

    2016-06-01

    We searched for an X-ray line at energies around 3.5 keV in deep, ˜1.6 Ms XMM-Newton observations of the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Draco. No line was found in either the Metal Oxide Semi-conductor (MOS) or the p-type/n-type semiconductor (PN) detectors. The data in this energy range are completely consistent with a single, unfolded power-law modelling the particle background, which dominates at these energies, plus instrumental lines; the addition of a ˜3.5 keV line feature gives no improvement to the fit. The corresponding upper limit on the line flux rules out a dark matter decay origin for the 3.5 keV line found in observations of clusters of galaxies and in the Galactic Centre at greater than 99 per cent confidence level.

  4. Measuring Vaccine Confidence: Introducing a Global Vaccine Confidence Index

    PubMed Central

    Larson, Heidi J; Schulz, William S; Tucker, Joseph D; Smith, David M D

    2015-01-01

    Background. Public confidence in vaccination is vital to the success of immunisation programmes worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of vaccine confidence is therefore of great importance for global public health. Few published studies permit global comparisons of vaccination sentiments and behaviours against a common metric. This article presents the findings of a multi-country survey of confidence in vaccines and immunisation programmes in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom (UK) – these being the first results of a larger project to map vaccine confidence globally. Methods. Data were collected from a sample of the general population and from those with children under 5 years old against a core set of confidence questions. All surveys were conducted in the relevant local-language in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the UK. We examine confidence in immunisation programmes as compared to confidence in other government health services, the relationships between confidence in the system and levels of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for vaccine hesitancy, ultimate vaccination decisions, and their variation based on country contexts and demographic factors. Results. The numbers of respondents by country were: Georgia (n=1000); India (n=1259); Pakistan (n=2609); UK (n=2055); Nigerian households (n=12554); and Nigerian health providers (n=1272). The UK respondents with children under five years of age were more likely to hesitate to vaccinate, compared to other countries. Confidence in immunisation programmes was more closely associated with confidence in the broader health system in the UK (Spearman’s ρ=0.5990), compared to Nigeria (ρ=0.5477), Pakistan (ρ=0.4491), and India (ρ=0.4240), all of which ranked confidence in immunisation programmes higher than confidence in the broader health system. Georgia had the highest rate of vaccine refusals (6 %) among those who reported initial hesitation. In all other countries surveyed most

  5. Confidant Relations in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Isaacs, Jenny; Soglian, Francesca; Hoffman, Edward

    2015-01-01

    Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91%) reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture. PMID:27247641

  6. Confidant Relations in Italy.

    PubMed

    Isaacs, Jenny; Soglian, Francesca; Hoffman, Edward

    2015-02-01

    Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91%) reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture. PMID:27247641

  7. Confidence Trick: The Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2014-01-01

    The frequent misinterpretation of the nature of confidence intervals by students has been well documented. This article examines the problem as an aspect of the learning of mathematical definitions and considers the tension between parroting mathematically rigorous, but essentially uninternalized, statements on the one hand and expressing…

  8. Computer-aided detection of lung cancer on chest radiographs: effect of machine CAD true positive/false negative detections on radiologists' confidence level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freedman, Matthew T.; Osicka, Teresa; Lo, Shih-Chung Benedict; Lure, Fleming; Xu, Xin-Wei; Lin, Jesse; Zhao, Hui; Zhang, Ron

    2004-05-01

    This paper evaluates the effect of Computer-Aided Detection prompts on the confidence and detection of cancer on chest radiographs. Expected findings included an increase in confidence rating and a decrease in variance in confidence when radiologists interacted with a computer prompt that confirmed their initial decision or induced them to switch from an incorrect to a correct decision. Their confidence rating decreased and the variance of confidence rating increased when the computer failed to confirm a correct or incorrect decision. A population of cases was identified that changed among reading modalities. This unstable group of cases differed between the Independent and Sequential without CAD modalities in cancer detection by radiologists and cancer detection by machine. CAD prompts induced the radiologists to make two types of changes in cases: changes on the sequential modality with CAD that restored an initial diagnosis made in the Independent read and new changes that were not present in the Independent or Sequential reads without CAD. This has implications for double reading of cases. The effects of intra-observer variability and inter-observer variability are suggested as potential causes for differences in statistical significance of the Independent and Sequential Design approaches to ROC studies.

  9. A confidence paradigm for classification systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leap, Nathan J.; Bauer, Kenneth W., Jr.

    2008-04-01

    There is no universally accepted methodology to determine how much confidence one should have in a classifier output. This research proposes a framework to determine the level of confidence in an indication from a classifier system where the output is a measurement value. There are two types of confidence developed in this paper. The first is confidence in a classification system or classifier and is denoted classifier confidence. The second is the confidence in the output of a classification system or classifier. In this paradigm, we posit that the confidence in the output of a classifier should be, on average, equal to the confidence in the classifier as a whole (i.e., classifier confidence). The amount of confidence in a given classifier is estimated using multiattribute preference theory and forms the foundation for a quadratic confidence function that is applied to posterior probability estimates. Classifier confidence is currently determined based upon individual measurable value functions for classification accuracy, average entropy, and sample size, and the form of the overall measurable value function is multilinear based upon the assumption of weak difference independence. Using classifier confidence, a quadratic function is trained to be the confidence function which inputs a posterior probability and outputs the confidence in a given indication. In this paradigm, confidence is not equal to the posterior probability estimate but is related to it. This confidence measure is a direct link between traditional decision analysis techniques and traditional pattern recognition techniques. This methodology is applied to two real world data sets, and results show the sort of behavior that would be expected from a rational confidence measure.

  10. Mapping Self-Confidence Levels of Nurses in Their Provision of Nursing Care to Others with Alcohol and Tobacco Dependence, Using Rasch Scaling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackman, Ian; de Crespigny, Charlotte; Parker, Steve

    2006-01-01

    This study seeks to identify factors that influence the perceived complexity of providing nursing care to others (who are dependent on alcohol and tobacco) and the confidence of undergraduate student nurses to carry out this care. The research project is designed to explore whether there is a difference between the perceived complexities of 57…

  11. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  12. Understanding Academic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2006-01-01

    This paper draws on the psychological theories of self-efficacy and the self-concept to understand students' self-confidence in academic study in higher education as measured by the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC). In doing this, expectancy-value theory and self-efficacy theory are considered and contrasted with self-concept and…

  13. Preservice Educators' Confidence in Addressing Sexuality Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyatt, Tammy Jordan

    2009-01-01

    This study examined 328 preservice educators' level of confidence in addressing four sexuality education domains and 21 sexuality education topics. Significant differences in confidence levels across the four domains were found for gender, academic major, sexuality education philosophy, and sexuality education knowledge. Preservice educators…

  14. Responsibility and confidence

    PubMed Central

    Austin, Zubin

    2013-01-01

    Background: Despite the changing role of the pharmacist in patient-centred practice, pharmacists anecdotally reported little confidence in their clinical decision-making skills and do not feel responsible for their patients. Observational findings have suggested these trends within the profession, but there is a paucity of evidence to explain why. We conducted an exploratory study with an objective to identify reasons for the lack of responsibility and/or confidence in various pharmacy practice settings. Methods: Pharmacist interviews were conducted via written response, face-to-face or telephone. Seven questions were asked on the topic of responsibility and confidence as it applies to pharmacy practice and how pharmacists think these themes differ in medicine. Interview transcripts were analyzed and divided by common theme. Quotations to support these themes are presented. Results: Twenty-nine pharmacists were asked to participate, and 18 responded (62% response rate). From these interviews, 6 themes were identified as barriers to confidence and responsibility: hierarchy of the medical system, role definitions, evolution of responsibility, ownership of decisions for confidence building, quality and consequences of mentorship and personality traits upon admission. Discussion: We identified 6 potential barriers to the development of pharmacists’ self-confidence and responsibility. These findings have practical applicability for educational research, future curriculum changes, experiential learning structure and pharmacy practice. Due to bias and the limitations of this form of exploratory research and small sample size, evidence should be interpreted cautiously. Conclusion: Pharmacists feel neither responsible nor confident for their clinical decisions due to social, educational, experiential and personal reasons. Can Pharm J 2013;146:155-161. PMID:23795200

  15. A proposal of the diagnosis-dynamic characteristic (DDC) model describing the relation between search time and confidence levels for a dichotomous judgment, and its application to ROC curve generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumoto, Toru; Fukuda, Nobuo; Furukawa, Akira; Suwa, Koji; Wada, Shinichi; Matsumoto, Mitsuomi; Sone, Shusuke

    2006-03-01

    When physicians inspect an image, they make up a certain degree of confidence that the image are abnormal; p(t), or normal; n(t)[n(t)=1-p(t)]. After infinite time of the inspection, they reach the equilibrium levels of the confidence of p*=p(∞) and n*=n(∞). There are psychological conflicts between the decisions of normal and abnormal. We assume that the decision of "normal" is distracted by the decision of "abnormal" by a factor of k(1 + ap), and in an inverse direction by a factor of k(1 + bn), where k ( > 0) is a parameter that relates with image quality and skill of the physicians, and a and b are unknown constants. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies the equation, k(1 + ap*)n* = k(1 + bn*)p*. Here we define a parameter C, which is 2p*/[p*(1 - p*)]. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies t that changes in the confidence level with the time (dp/dt) is proportional to [k(1+ap)n - k(1+bn)p], i.e. k[-cp2 + (c - 2)p + 1]. Solving the differential equation, we derived the equation; t(p) and p(t) depending with the parameters; k, c, S. S (0-1) is the value arbitrary selected and related with probability of "abnormal" before the image inspection (S = p(0)). Image reading studies were executed for CT images. ROC curves were generated both by the traditional 4-step score-based method and by the confidence level; p estimated from the equation t(p) of the DDC model using observed judgment time. It was concluded that ROC curves could be generated by measuring time for dichotomous judgment without the subjective scores of diagnostic confidence and applying the DDC model.

  16. Confidence Calculation with AMV+

    SciTech Connect

    Fossum, A.F.

    1999-02-19

    The iterative advanced mean value algorithm (AMV+), introduced nearly ten years ago, is now widely used as a cost-effective probabilistic structural analysis tool when the use of sampling methods is cost prohibitive (Wu et al., 1990). The need to establish confidence bounds on calculated probabilities arises because of the presence of uncertainties in measured means and variances of input random variables. In this paper an algorithm is proposed that makes use of the AMV+ procedure and analytically derived probability sensitivities to determine confidence bounds on calculated probabilities.

  17. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an…

  18. SystemConfidence

    SciTech Connect

    Josh Lothian, Jeff Kuehn

    2012-09-25

    SystemConfidence is a benchmark developed at ORNL which can measure statistical variation in which the user can plot. The portions of the code which manage the collection of the histograms and computing statistics on the histograms were designed with the intent that we could use these functions in other codes.

  19. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  20. Addressing the vaccine confidence gap.

    PubMed

    Larson, Heidi J; Cooper, Louis Z; Eskola, Juhani; Katz, Samuel L; Ratzan, Scott

    2011-08-01

    Vaccines--often lauded as one of the greatest public health interventions--are losing public confidence. Some vaccine experts have referred to this decline in confidence as a crisis. We discuss some of the characteristics of the changing global environment that are contributing to increased public questioning of vaccines, and outline some of the specific determinants of public trust. Public decision making related to vaccine acceptance is neither driven by scientific nor economic evidence alone, but is also driven by a mix of psychological, sociocultural, and political factors, all of which need to be understood and taken into account by policy and other decision makers. Public trust in vaccines is highly variable and building trust depends on understanding perceptions of vaccines and vaccine risks, historical experiences, religious or political affiliations, and socioeconomic status. Although provision of accurate, scientifically based evidence on the risk-benefit ratios of vaccines is crucial, it is not enough to redress the gap between current levels of public confidence in vaccines and levels of trust needed to ensure adequate and sustained vaccine coverage. We call for more research not just on individual determinants of public trust, but on what mix of factors are most likely to sustain public trust. The vaccine community demands rigorous evidence on vaccine efficacy and safety and technical and operational feasibility when introducing a new vaccine, but has been negligent in demanding equally rigorous research to understand the psychological, social, and political factors that affect public trust in vaccines. PMID:21664679

  1. Addressing the vaccine confidence gap.

    PubMed

    Larson, Heidi J; Cooper, Louis Z; Eskola, Juhani; Katz, Samuel L; Ratzan, Scott

    2011-08-01

    Vaccines--often lauded as one of the greatest public health interventions--are losing public confidence. Some vaccine experts have referred to this decline in confidence as a crisis. We discuss some of the characteristics of the changing global environment that are contributing to increased public questioning of vaccines, and outline some of the specific determinants of public trust. Public decision making related to vaccine acceptance is neither driven by scientific nor economic evidence alone, but is also driven by a mix of psychological, sociocultural, and political factors, all of which need to be understood and taken into account by policy and other decision makers. Public trust in vaccines is highly variable and building trust depends on understanding perceptions of vaccines and vaccine risks, historical experiences, religious or political affiliations, and socioeconomic status. Although provision of accurate, scientifically based evidence on the risk-benefit ratios of vaccines is crucial, it is not enough to redress the gap between current levels of public confidence in vaccines and levels of trust needed to ensure adequate and sustained vaccine coverage. We call for more research not just on individual determinants of public trust, but on what mix of factors are most likely to sustain public trust. The vaccine community demands rigorous evidence on vaccine efficacy and safety and technical and operational feasibility when introducing a new vaccine, but has been negligent in demanding equally rigorous research to understand the psychological, social, and political factors that affect public trust in vaccines.

  2. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  3. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  4. Stress perceptions of soldiers participating in training at the Chemical Defense Training Facility: The mediating effects of motivation, experience, and confidence level. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Fatkin, L.T.; Hudgens, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    An investigation was conducted by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) and funded by the Physiological and Psychological Effects of the Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical (NBC) Environment and Sustained Operations on Systems in Combat (P2NBC2) program to assess the psychological reactions of soldiers in mission-oriented protective posture (MOPP) IV participating in training in a simulated chemical agent environment and in a toxic agent environment. A total of 155 soldiers who participated in the basic course (junior enlisted) and the advanced courses (officer and noncommissioned officer NCO groups) as part of their military occupational specialty (MOS) training volunteered for the study. The junior enlisted group reported significant increases in anxiety during four sessions as they approached the toxic agent portion of the training. The more experienced groups showed a small, but significant increase in anxiety during sessions. Their level of hostility, a component of stress that usually relates to levels of personal frustration, decreased significantly from the time of their initial testing to just before the training began. Since the initial session occurred 1 to 2 weeks before the U.S. Army Chemical Defense Training Facility (CDTF) training, the elevated frustration level may be a reflection of their overall experiences within the intensive chemical defense training program. A significant drop in reported fatigue between the pre- and post-training sessions may indicate a certain level of vigilance gained by participating in the training.

  5. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  6. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with. PMID:23227579

  7. Improved investor confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, J.

    1995-10-01

    Results of a financial ranking survey of power projects show reasonably strong activity when compared to previous surveys. Perhaps the most notable trend is the continued increase in the number of international deals being reported. Nearly 62 percent of the transactions reported were for non-US projects. This increase will likely expand with time as developers and lenders gain confidence in certain regions. For the remainder of 1995 and into 1996 it is likely that financial activity will continue at a steady pace. A number of projects in various markets are poised to reach financial close relatively soon. Developers, investment bankers, and governments are all gaining experience and becoming more comfortable with the process.

  8. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  9. Nebraska Schools 83-84 Immunization Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nebraska State Dept. of Health, Lincoln.

    The data contained in this report represents all of the 297,696 students, K-12, in the state of Nebraska. High levels of immunity are documented among children grades K-6. Some immunization levels of children grades 7-12 are yet below the 95 percent established as a minimum for the prevention of vaccine preventable diseases. Specifically, there…

  10. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  11. Monitoring tigers with confidence.

    PubMed

    Linkie, Matthew; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Smith, Joseph; Rayan, D Mark

    2010-12-01

    With only 5% of the world's wild tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) remaining since the last century, conservationists urgently need to know whether or not the management strategies currently being employed are effectively protecting these tigers. This knowledge is contingent on the ability to reliably monitor tiger populations, or subsets, over space and time. In the this paper, we focus on the 2 seminal methodologies (camera trap and occupancy surveys) that have enabled the monitoring of tiger populations with greater confidence. Specifically, we: (i) describe their statistical theory and application in the field; (ii) discuss issues associated with their survey designs and state variable modeling; and, (iii) discuss their future directions. These methods have had an unprecedented influence on increasing statistical rigor within tiger surveys and, also, surveys of other carnivore species. Nevertheless, only 2 published camera trap studies have gone beyond single baseline assessments and actually monitored population trends. For low density tiger populations (e.g. <1 adult tiger/100 km(2)) obtaining sufficient precision for state variable estimates from camera trapping remains a challenge because of insufficient detection probabilities and/or sample sizes. Occupancy surveys have overcome this problem by redefining the sampling unit (e.g. grid cells and not individual tigers). Current research is focusing on developing spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture models and estimating abundance indices from landscape-scale occupancy surveys, as well as the use of genetic information for identifying and monitoring tigers. The widespread application of these monitoring methods in the field now enables complementary studies on the impact of the different threats to tiger populations and their response to varying management intervention.

  12. Monitoring tigers with confidence.

    PubMed

    Linkie, Matthew; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Smith, Joseph; Rayan, D Mark

    2010-12-01

    With only 5% of the world's wild tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) remaining since the last century, conservationists urgently need to know whether or not the management strategies currently being employed are effectively protecting these tigers. This knowledge is contingent on the ability to reliably monitor tiger populations, or subsets, over space and time. In the this paper, we focus on the 2 seminal methodologies (camera trap and occupancy surveys) that have enabled the monitoring of tiger populations with greater confidence. Specifically, we: (i) describe their statistical theory and application in the field; (ii) discuss issues associated with their survey designs and state variable modeling; and, (iii) discuss their future directions. These methods have had an unprecedented influence on increasing statistical rigor within tiger surveys and, also, surveys of other carnivore species. Nevertheless, only 2 published camera trap studies have gone beyond single baseline assessments and actually monitored population trends. For low density tiger populations (e.g. <1 adult tiger/100 km(2)) obtaining sufficient precision for state variable estimates from camera trapping remains a challenge because of insufficient detection probabilities and/or sample sizes. Occupancy surveys have overcome this problem by redefining the sampling unit (e.g. grid cells and not individual tigers). Current research is focusing on developing spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture models and estimating abundance indices from landscape-scale occupancy surveys, as well as the use of genetic information for identifying and monitoring tigers. The widespread application of these monitoring methods in the field now enables complementary studies on the impact of the different threats to tiger populations and their response to varying management intervention. PMID:21392352

  13. Speaking with Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gousie, Gene

    This paper offers a summary of two aspects of effective speaking in public, whether it be with co-workers, supervisors, friends, or a group of little-known or unknown others. One aspect of public speaking is the level of sincerity, and the other is the level and variety of skills used. The paper first considers sincerity and then, it discusses the…

  14. Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Bruce

    2007-01-01

    The present article provides a primer on (a) effect sizes, (b) confidence intervals, and (c) confidence intervals for effect sizes. Additionally, various admonitions for reformed statistical practice are presented. For example, a very important implication of the realization that there are dozens of effect size statistics is that "authors must…

  15. Confidant Relations of the Aged.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tigges, Leann M.; And Others

    The confidant relationship is a qualitatively distinct dimension of the emotional support system of the aged, yet the composition of the confidant network has been largely neglected in research on aging. Persons (N=940) 60 years of age and older were interviewed about their socio-environmental setting. From the enumeration of their relatives,…

  16. Teaching Confidence Intervals Using Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagtvedt, Reidar; Jones, Gregory Todd; Jones, Kari

    2008-01-01

    Confidence intervals are difficult to teach, in part because most students appear to believe they understand how to interpret them intuitively. They rarely do. To help them abandon their misconception and achieve understanding, we have developed a simulation tool that encourages experimentation with multiple confidence intervals derived from the…

  17. Stocks low, marketers confident

    SciTech Connect

    Mantho, M.

    1997-01-01

    This has been a nerve wracking season as we looked at inadequate inventory spurring prices ever upward. We have watched the American Petroleum Association`s figures on refiner stocks with considerable dismay as they consistantly fell behind year ago inventory. The anxiety extended to how much oil was in marketers` bulkplants and finally in customer tanks. And so, we asked our reporting panel to help us get a fix on how much oil was available for our customers. We asked the questions in early November and so all our figures are for that month. First we asked the capacity of their bulk tanks. And then how many gallons they had on hand November 1, 1996 and the same date of 1995. From these figures, we were able to get estimates of oil inventories. Marketers bulk tanks were 47.5% filled on November 1 which meant that there was on hand at this level, 36 gallons of heating oil for each customer. At that point in the season, customer tanks were 58% filled which translated into 218 gallons.

  18. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  19. Sources of Confidence in School Community Councils

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nygaard, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Three Utah middle level school community councils participated in a qualitative strengths-based process evaluation. Two of the school community councils were identified as exemplary, and the third was just beginning to function. One aspect of the evaluation was the source of school community council members' confidence. Each school had unique…

  20. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  1. Confidence rating for eutrophication assessments.

    PubMed

    Brockmann, Uwe H; Topcu, Dilek H

    2014-05-15

    Confidence of monitoring data is dependent on their variability and representativeness of sampling in space and time. Whereas variability can be assessed as statistical confidence limits, representative sampling is related to equidistant sampling, considering gradients or changing rates at sampling gaps. By the proposed method both aspects are combined, resulting in balanced results for examples of total nitrogen concentrations in the German Bight/North Sea. For assessing sampling representativeness surface areas, vertical profiles and time periods are divided into regular sections for which individually the representativeness is calculated. The sums correspond to the overall representativeness of sampling in the defined area/time period. Effects of not sampled sections are estimated along parallel rows by reducing their confidence, considering their distances to next sampled sections and the interrupted gradients/changing rates. Confidence rating of time sections is based on maximum differences of sampling rates at regular time steps and related means of concentrations.

  2. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  3. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  4. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory.

    PubMed

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

  5. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

    PubMed Central

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135

  6. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    PubMed

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings. PMID:21902013

  7. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  8. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  9. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  10. The Use of the Fennema-Sherman Mathematics Anxiety and Confidence Scales as Predictors of Success among "Business Calculus Students" and "Fundamental Concepts of Mathematics" Students at the College Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heher, Rosemary Pataky

    In an attempt to explore the prevalence, intensity and effects of mathematics anxiety at Salisbury State College (Maryland) approximately 350 student volunteers from two diverse introductory mathematics courses participated in this survey. The Fennema-Sherman Mathematics Anxiety and Confidence Scales and a portion of the Test Anxiety Profile were…

  11. Mathematics Anxiety and Preservice Elementary Teachers' Confidence to Teach Mathematics and Science

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bursal, Murat; Paznokas, Lynda

    2006-01-01

    Sixty-five preservice elementary teachers' math anxiety levels and confidence levels to teach elementary mathematics and science were measured. The confidence scores of subjects in different math anxiety groups were compared and the relationships between their math anxiety levels and confidence levels to teach mathematics and science were…

  12. A primer on confidence intervals in psychopharmacology.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Chittaranjan

    2015-02-01

    Research papers and research summaries frequently present results in the form of data accompanied by 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Not all students and clinicians know how to interpret CIs. This article provides a nontechnical, nonmathematical discussion on how to understand and glean information from CIs; all explanations are accompanied by simple examples. A statistically accurate explanation about CIs is also provided. CIs are differentiated from standard deviations, standard errors, and confidence levels. The interpretation of narrow and wide CIs is discussed. Factors that influence the width of a CI are listed. Explanations are provided for how CIs can be used to assess statistical significance. The significance of overlapping and nonoverlapping CIs is considered. It is concluded that CIs are far more informative than, say, mere P values when drawing conclusions about a result.

  13. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  14. Cortical alpha activity predicts the confidence in an impending action

    PubMed Central

    Kubanek, Jan; Hill, N. Jeremy; Snyder, Lawrence H.; Schalk, Gerwin

    2015-01-01

    When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject's confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects' confidence was independent of the reaction time and independent of the sensory input modeled as a decision variable. Furthermore, the effect is not due to a general cognitive state, such as reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of an ensuing button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the commitment to make a hand movement. PMID:26283892

  15. The 2009 Retirement Confidence Survey: economy drives confidence to record lows; many looking to work longer.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2009-04-01

    RECORD LOW CONFIDENCE LEVELS: Workers who say they are very confident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement this year hit the lowest level in 2009 (13 percent) since the Retirement Confidence Survey started asking the question in 1993, continuing a two-year decline. Retirees also posted a new low in confidence about having a financially secure retirement, with only 20 percent now saying they are very confident (down from 41 percent in 2007). THE ECONOMY, INFLATION, COST OF LIVING ARE THE BIG CONCERNS: Not surprisingly, workers overall who have lost confidence over the past year about affording a comfortable retirement most often cite the recent economic uncertainty, inflation, and the cost of living as primary factors. In addition, certain negative experiences, such as job loss or a pay cut, loss of retirement savings, or an increase in debt, almost always contribute to loss of confidence among those who experience them. RETIREMENT EXPECTATIONS DELAYED: Workers apparently expect to work longer because of the economic downturn: 28 percent of workers in the 2009 RCS say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. Of those, the vast majority (89 percent) say that they have postponed retirement with the intention of increasing their financial security. Nevertheless, the median (mid-point) worker expects to retire at age 65, with 21 percent planning to push on into their 70s. The median retiree actually retired at age 62, and 47 percent of retirees say they retired sooner than planned. WORKING IN RETIREMENT: More workers are also planning to supplement their income in retirement by working for pay. The percentage of workers planning to work after they retire has increased to 72 percent in 2009 (up from 66 percent in 2007). This compares with 34 percent of retirees who report they actually worked for pay at some time during their retirement. GREATER WORRY ABOUT BASIC AND HEALTH EXPENSES: Workers who say they very confident in

  16. Playing with confidence: the relationship between imagery use and self-confidence and self-efficacy in youth soccer players.

    PubMed

    Munroe-Chandler, Krista; Hall, Craig; Fishburne, Graham

    2008-12-01

    Confidence has been one of the most consistent factors in distinguishing the successful from the unsuccessful athletes (Gould, Weiss, & Weinberg, 1981) and Bandura (1997) proposed that imagery is one way to enhance confidence. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship between imagery use and confidence in soccer (football) players. The participants included 122 male and female soccer athletes ages 11-14 years participating in both house/ recreation (n = 72) and travel/competitive (n = 50) levels. Athletes completed three questionnaires; one measuring the frequency of imagery use, one assessing generalised self-confidence, and one assessing self-efficacy in soccer. A series of regression analyses found that Motivational General-Mastery (MG-M) imagery was a signifant predictor of self-confidence and self-efficacy in both recreational and competitive youth soccer players. More specifically, MG-M imagery accounted for between 40 and 57% of the variance for both self-confidence and self-efficacy with two other functions (MG-A and MS) contributing marginally in the self-confidence regression for recreational athletes. These findings suggest that if a youth athlete, regardless of competitive level, wants to increase his/her self-confidence or self-efficacy through the use of imagery, the MG-M function should be emphasised. PMID:18949659

  17. Contrasting diversity values: statistical inferences based on overlapping confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance).

  18. Contrasting Diversity Values: Statistical Inferences Based on Overlapping Confidence Intervals

    PubMed Central

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance). PMID:23437239

  19. Self-confidence, gender and academic achievement of undergraduate nursing students.

    PubMed

    Kukulu, K; Korukcu, O; Ozdemir, Y; Bezci, A; Calik, C

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the self-confidence levels of nursing students and the factors related to such self-confidence. Data were obtained via a questionnaire for socio-demographic characteristics and a 'Self-Confidence Scale' prepared by the researchers. High self-confidence levels were noted in 78.6% of female students and 92.3% of male students. While 84.5% of second-year students had high self-confidence levels, this rate was 76% in fourth-year students. Female nursing students were significantly less self-confident than male students. Self-confidence should be nurtured in a caring nursing curriculum; however, there is a lack of clarity as to what confidence means, how it is perceived by students and what educators can do to instil self-confidence in nursing students.

  20. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    SciTech Connect

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  1. Confidence bounds on structural reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehta, S. R.; Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

    1993-01-01

    Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

  2. Confidence bounds on structural reliability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, S. R.; Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

    1993-04-01

    Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

  3. Confidence in ASCI scientific simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Ang, J.A.; Trucano, T.G.; Luginbuhl, D.R.

    1998-06-01

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program calls for the development of high end computing and advanced application simulations as one component of a program to eliminate reliance upon nuclear testing in the US nuclear weapons program. This paper presents results from the ASCI program`s examination of needs for focused validation and verification (V and V). These V and V activities will ensure that 100 TeraOP-scale ASCI simulation code development projects apply the appropriate means to achieve high confidence in the use of simulations for stockpile assessment and certification. The authors begin with an examination of the roles for model development and validation in the traditional scientific method. The traditional view is that the scientific method has two foundations, experimental and theoretical. While the traditional scientific method does not acknowledge the role for computing and simulation, this examination establishes a foundation for the extension of the traditional processes to include verification and scientific software development that results in the notional framework known as Sargent`s Framework. This framework elucidates the relationships between the processes of scientific model development, computational model verification and simulation validation. This paper presents a discussion of the methodologies and practices that the ASCI program will use to establish confidence in large-scale scientific simulations. While the effort for a focused program in V and V is just getting started, the ASCI program has been underway for a couple of years. The authors discuss some V and V activities and preliminary results from the ALEGRA simulation code that is under development for ASCI. The breadth of physical phenomena and the advanced computational algorithms that are employed by ALEGRA make it a subject for V and V that should typify what is required for many ASCI simulations.

  4. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  5. Validation, Uncertainty, and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC)

    SciTech Connect

    Logan, R W; Nitta, C K

    2002-12-06

    This paper represents a summary of our methodology for Verification and Validation and Uncertainty Quantification. A graded scale methodology is presented and related to other concepts in the literature. We describe the critical nature of quantified Verification and Validation with Uncertainty Quantification at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after Verification and Validation has contributed to Uncertainty Quantification at specified confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. Verification and Validation methods for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence and we summarize briefly how this can lead to a Value Engineering methodology for investment strategy.

  6. The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: job insecurity, debt weigh on retirement confidence, savings.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2012-03-01

    Americans' confidence in their ability to retire comfortably is stagnant at historically low levels. Just 14 percent are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement (statistically equivalent to the low of 13 percent measured in 2011 and 2009). Employment insecurity looms large: Forty-two percent identify job uncertainty as the most pressing financial issue facing most Americans today. Worker confidence about having enough money to pay for medical expenses and long-term care expenses in retirement remains well below their confidence levels for paying basic expenses. Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000. Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has grown to 37 percent. Regardless of those retirement age expectations, and consistent with prior RCS findings, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure. Those already in retirement tend to express higher levels of confidence than current workers about several key financial aspects of retirement. Retirees report they are significantly more reliant on Social Security as a major source of their retirement income than current workers expect to be. Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer. More than half of workers (56 percent) report they and/or their spouse have not tried

  7. Sample sizes for confidence limits for reliability.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2010-02-01

    We recently performed an evaluation of the implications of a reduced stockpile of nuclear weapons for surveillance to support estimates of reliability. We found that one technique developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under-estimates the required sample size for systems-level testing. For a large population the discrepancy is not important, but for a small population it is important. We found that another technique used by SNL provides the correct required sample size. For systems-level testing of nuclear weapons, samples are selected without replacement, and the hypergeometric probability distribution applies. Both of the SNL techniques focus on samples without defects from sampling without replacement. We generalized the second SNL technique to cases with defects in the sample. We created a computer program in Mathematica to automate the calculation of confidence for reliability. We also evaluated sampling with replacement where the binomial probability distribution applies.

  8. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    PubMed

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations. PMID:27391683

  9. Action-Specific Disruption of Perceptual Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Maniscalco, Brian; Ko, Yoshiaki; Amendi, Namema; Ro, Tony; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-01-01

    Theoretical models of perception assume that confidence is related to the quality or strength of sensory processing. Counter to this intuitive view, we showed in the present research that the motor system also contributes to judgments of perceptual confidence. In two experiments, we used transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to manipulate response-specific representations in the premotor cortex, selectively disrupting postresponse confidence in visual discrimination judgments. Specifically, stimulation of the motor representation associated with the unchosen response reduced confidence in correct responses, thereby reducing metacognitive capacity without changing visual discrimination performance. Effects of TMS on confidence were observed when stimulation was applied both before and after the response occurred, which suggests that confidence depends on late-stage metacognitive processes. These results place constraints on models of perceptual confidence and metacognition by revealing that action-specific information in the premotor cortex contributes to perceptual confidence. PMID:25425059

  10. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Settlemyer, Bradley W; Hodson, Stephen W; Kuehn, Jeffery A; Poole, Stephen W

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  11. Confidence intervals for ATR performance metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, Timothy D.

    2001-08-01

    This paper describes confidence interval (CI) estimators (CIEs) for the metrics used to assess sensor exploitation algorithm (or ATR) performance. For the discrete distributions, small sample sizes and extreme outcomes encountered within ATR testing, the commonly used CIEs have limited accuracy. This paper makes available CIEs that are accurate over all conditions of interest to the ATR community. The approach is to search for CIs using an integration of the Bayesian posterior (IBP) to measure alpha (chance of the CI not containing the true value). The CIEs provided include proportion estimates based on Binomial distributions and rate estimates based on Poisson distributions. One or two-sided CIs may be selected. For two-sided CIEs, either minimal length, balanced tail probabilities, or balanced width may be selected. The CIEs' accuracies are reported based on a Monte Carlo validated integration of the posterior probability distribution and compared to the Normal approximation and `exact' (Clopper- Pearson) methods. While the IBP methods are accurate throughout, the conventional methods may realize alphas with substantial error (up to 50%). This translates to 10 to 15% error in the CI widths or to requiring 10 to 15% more samples for a given confidence level.

  12. Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamkins, J.

    2015-05-01

    We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

  13. Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

  14. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    PubMed

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  15. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account

    PubMed Central

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-01-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable “feeling of knowing” or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  16. Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

  17. Early Childhood Practicum Students' Professional Growth in the USA: Areas of Confidence and Concern

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wee, Su-Jeong; Weber, Elsa K.; Park, Soyeon

    2014-01-01

    This research examines specific areas of confidence and concern as expressed by 40 American undergraduate early childhood students on a practicum (supervised field-based internships); if their beliefs changed over the course of their practicum, and if prior teaching experience had an impact on their confidence levels. Areas of confidence and…

  18. Confidence-weighted testing: a descriptive study of Japanese nursing students.

    PubMed

    Aoyama, Michiyo; Tamura, Yumi; Ishikawa, Yuichi; Yada, Mamiko; Miyawaki, Ikuko

    2013-12-01

    Nurses' lack of self-confidence in their own nursing skills is one of the main reasons that novice nurses leave the profession in Japan. Nursing education must help students gain self-confidence in their nursing skills in order to allow more novice nurses to stay in their profession. In this study, we evaluated whether confidence-weighted testing feedback actually improves students' self-confidence in their basic nursing skills. Confidence-weighted testing, which provides quantifiable results, might allow students to objectively assess their skill-related self-confidence. Sixty-seven first-year nursing students took two confidence-rating examinations on the knowledge and practical skills related to pulse and blood pressure measurement of immobile patients. Feedback was given to each participant after the first examination. After the first examination with confidence-weighted testing feedback, students showed higher levels of self-confidence in their practical skills, but not in knowledge. The improvement of self-confidence in practical skills suggests that there is still room for improvement in confidence-weighted testing feedback in knowledge. Further research is required to identify more effective feedback methods to improve students' self-confidence levels in knowledge using the results of confidence-weighted testing.

  19. Learning to Make Collective Decisions: The Impact of Confidence Escalation

    PubMed Central

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others’ opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants’ confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members’ confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions. PMID:24324677

  20. Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cousins, R. D.

    The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

  1. Confidence in Parenting: Is Parent Education Working?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanberry, J. Phillip; Stanberry, Anne M.

    This study examined parents' feelings of confidence in their parenting ability among 56 individuals enrolled in 5 parent education programs in Mississippi, hypothesizing that there would be significant correlations between personal authority in the family system and a parent's confidence in performing the various roles of parenting. Based on…

  2. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  3. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  4. Self-Confidence and Metacognitive Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kleitman, Sabina; Stankov, Lazar

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the nature of the Self-confidence factor. In particular, we study the relationship between this factor and cognitive, metacognitive, and personality measures. Participants (N=296) were administered a battery of seven cognitive tests that assess three constructs: accuracy, speed, and confidence. Participants were also given the…

  5. Confidence Wagering during Mathematics and Science Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Hoan-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal presents the results of a case study involving five 8th grade Taiwanese classes, two mathematics and three science classes. These classes used a new method of testing called confidence wagering. This paper advocates the position that confidence wagering can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during…

  6. Similarity and confidence in artificial grammar learning.

    PubMed

    Tunney, Richard J

    2010-01-01

    Three experiments examined the relationship between similarity ratings and confidence ratings in artificial grammar learning. In Experiment 1 participants rated the similarity of test items to study exemplars. Regression analyses revealed these to be related to some of the objective measures of similarity that have previously been implicated in categorization decisions. In Experiment 2 participants made grammaticality decisions and rated either their confidence in the accuracy of their decisions or the similarity of the test items to the study items. Regression analyses showed that the grammaticality decisions were predicted by the similarity ratings obtained in Experiment 1. Points on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for the similarity and confidence ratings were closely matched. These data suggest that meta-cognitive judgments of confidence are predicated on structural knowledge of similarity. Experiment 3 confirmed this by showing that confidence ratings to median similarity probe items changed according to the similarity of preceding items.

  7. An informative confidence metric for ATR.

    SciTech Connect

    Bow, Wallace Johnston Jr.; Richards, John Alfred; Bray, Brian Kenworthy

    2003-03-01

    Automatic or assisted target recognition (ATR) is an important application of synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Most ATR researchers have focused on the core problem of declaration-that is, detection and identification of targets of interest within a SAR image. For ATR declarations to be of maximum value to an image analyst, however, it is essential that each declaration be accompanied by a reliability estimate or confidence metric. Unfortunately, the need for a clear and informative confidence metric for ATR has generally been overlooked or ignored. We propose a framework and methodology for evaluating the confidence in an ATR system's declarations and competing target hypotheses. Our proposed confidence metric is intuitive, informative, and applicable to a broad class of ATRs. We demonstrate that seemingly similar ATRs may differ fundamentally in the ability-or inability-to identify targets with high confidence.

  8. Constructing Confidence Intervals for Qtl Location

    PubMed Central

    Mangin, B.; Goffinet, B.; Rebai, A.

    1994-01-01

    We describe a method for constructing the confidence interval of the QTL location parameter. This method is developed in the local asymptotic framework, leading to a linear model at each position of the putative QTL. The idea is to construct a likelihood ratio test, using statistics whose asymptotic distribution does not depend on the nuisance parameters and in particular on the effect of the QTL. We show theoretical properties of the confidence interval built with this test, and compare it with the classical confidence interval using simulations. We show in particular, that our confidence interval has the correct probability of containing the true map location of the QTL, for almost all QTLs, whereas the classical confidence interval can be very biased for QTLs having small effect. PMID:7896108

  9. Analyzing Student Confidence in Classroom Voting with Multiple Choice Questions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Ann; Storm, Christopher; VonEpps, Lahna

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present results of a recent study in which students voted on multiple choice questions in mathematics courses of varying levels. Students used clickers to select the best answer among the choices given; in addition, they were also asked whether they were confident in their answer. In this paper we analyze data…

  10. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  11. State FFA Officers' Confidence and Trustworthiness of Biotechnology Information Sources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wingenbach, Gary J.; Rutherford, Tracy A.

    2007-01-01

    Are state FFA officers' awareness levels of agricultural topics reported in mass media superior to those who do not serve in leadership roles? The purpose of this study was to determine elected state FFA officers' awareness of biotechnology, and their confidence and trust of biotechnology information sources. Descriptive survey methods were used…

  12. Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Du, Yunfei

    This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

  13. Efficient Computation Of Confidence Intervals Of Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1992-01-01

    Study focuses on obtaining efficient algorithm for estimation of confidence intervals of ML estimates. Four algorithms selected to solve associated constrained optimization problem. Hybrid algorithms, following search and gradient approaches, prove best.

  14. Updating misconceptions: effects of age and confidence.

    PubMed

    Cyr, Andrée-Ann; Anderson, Nicole D

    2013-06-01

    Young adults are more likely to correct an initial higher confidence error than a lower confidence error (Butterfield & Metcalfe, 2001). This hypercorrection effect has never been investigated among older adults, although features of the standard paradigm (free recall, metacognitive judgments) and prior evidence of age-related error resolution deficits (see Clare & Jones, 2008) suggest that they may not show this effect. In Study 1, we used free recall and a 7-point confidence scale; in Study 2, we used multiple-choice questions, and participants indicated how many alternatives they had narrowed their options down to prior to answering. In both studies, younger and older adults showed a hypercorrection effect, and this effect was equivalent between groups in Study 2 when free recall and explicit confidence ratings were not required. These results are consistent with our previous work (Cyr & Anderson, 2012) showing that older adults can successfully resolve learning errors when the learning context provides sufficient support.

  15. Confidence regions of planar cardiac vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubin, S.; Herr, A.; Hunt, P.

    1980-01-01

    A method for plotting the confidence regions of vectorial data obtained in electrocardiology is presented. The 90%, 95% and 99% confidence regions of cardiac vectors represented in a plane are obtained in the form of an ellipse centered at coordinates corresponding to the means of a sample selected at random from a bivariate normal distribution. An example of such a plot for the frontal plane QRS mean electrical axis for 80 horses is also presented.

  16. Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayhurst, Kelly J.

    1991-01-01

    Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

  17. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    PubMed

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  18. Worse than enemies. The CEO's destructive confidant.

    PubMed

    Sulkowicz, Kerry J

    2004-02-01

    The CEO is often the most isolated and protected employee in the organization. Few leaders, even veteran CEOs, can do the job without talking to someone about their experiences, which is why most develop a close relationship with a trusted colleague, a confidant to whom they can tell their thoughts and fears. In his work with leaders, the author has found that many CEO-confidant relationships function very well. The confidants keep their leaders' best interests at heart. They derive their gratification vicariously, through the help they provide rather than through any personal gain, and they are usually quite aware that a person in their position can potentially abuse access to the CEO's innermost secrets. Unfortunately, almost as many confidants will end up hurting, undermining, or otherwise exploiting CEOs when the executives are at their most vulnerable. These confidants rarely make the headlines, but behind the scenes they do enormous damage to the CEO and to the organization as a whole. What's more, the leader is often the last one to know when or how the confidant relationship became toxic. The author has identified three types of destructive confidants. The reflector mirrors the CEO, constantly reassuring him that he is the "fairest CEO of them all." The insulator buffers the CEO from the organization, preventing critical information from getting in or out. And the usurper cunningly ingratiates himself with the CEO in a desperate bid for power. This article explores how the CEO-confidant relationship plays out with each type of adviser and suggests ways CEOs can avoid these destructive relationships.

  19. Confiding About Problems in Marriage and Long-Term Committed Relationships: A National Study.

    PubMed

    Lind Seal, Kirsten; Doherty, William J; Harris, Steven M

    2016-07-01

    This study examined confiding patterns in a national sample of 1000 U.S. adults aged 25-70 to inform the development of an educational program for confidants, called Marital First Responders. Results showed that 73% of U.S. adults have been a confidant to someone with a problem in a marriage or long-term committed relationship. The most common confiding relationship was between friends, followed by siblings. Confidants reported a wide range of problems brought to them, ranging from everyday complaints to serious issues such as infidelity and divorce. Confiders identified the most and least helpful responses. Findings suggest that naturally occurring confiding relationships have considerable potential to be the first level of help for troubled couple relationships.

  20. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task

    PubMed Central

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence. PMID:27242566

  1. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  2. "But I Thought I Knew That!" Student Confidence Judgments on Course Examinations in Introductory Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nevid, Jeffrey S.; Cheney, Brianna; Thompson, Clarissa

    2015-01-01

    Students in an introductory psychology class rated their level of confidence in their answers to exam questions on four multiple-choice exams through the course of a semester. Correlations between confidence judgments and accuracy (correct vs. incorrect) at the individual item level showed modest but significant relationships for item sets scaled…

  3. The Joint Confidence Level Paradox: A History of Denial

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butts, Glenn; Linton, Kent

    2009-01-01

    This paper is intended to provide a reliable methodology for those tasked with generating price tags on construction (C0F) and research and development (R&D) activities in the NASA performance world. This document consists of a collection of cost-related engineering detail and project fulfillment information from early agency days to the present. Accurate historical detail is the first place to start when determining improved methodologies for future cost and schedule estimating. This paper contains a beneficial proposed cost estimating method for arriving at more reliable numbers for future submits. When comparing current cost and schedule methods with earlier cost and schedule approaches, it became apparent that NASA's organizational performance paradigm has morphed. Mission fulfillment speed has slowed and cost calculating factors have increased in 21st Century space exploration.

  4. Confidence in biopreparedness authorities among Finnish conscripts.

    PubMed

    Vartti, Anne-Marie; Aro, Arja R; Jormanainen, Vesa; Henriksson, Markus; Nikkari, Simo

    2010-08-01

    A large sample of Finnish military conscripts of the armored brigade were questioned on the extent to which they trusted the information given biopreparedness authorities (such as the police, military, health care, and public health institutions) and how confident they were in the authority's ability to protect the public during a potential infectious disease outbreak, from either natural or deliberate causes. Participants answered a written questionnaire during their initial health inspection in July 2007. From a total of 1,000 conscripts, 953 male conscripts returned the questionnaire. The mean sum scores for confidence in the information given to biopreparedness authorities and the media on natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range = 0-30) were 20.14 (SD = 7.79) and 20.12 (SD = 7.69), respectively. Mean sum scores for the respondents' confidence in the ability of the biopreparedness authorities to protect the public during natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range 0-25) were 16.04 (SD = 5.78) and 16.17 (SD = 5.89). Most respondents indicated that during a natural outbreak, they would have confidence in information provided by a health care institution such as central hospitals and primary health care centers, whereas in the case of bioterrorism, the respondents indicated that they would have confidence in the defense forces and central hospitals. PMID:20731266

  5. Chiropractic Interns' Perceptions of Stress and Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Spegman, Adele Mattinat; Herrin, Sean

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Psychological stress has been shown to influence learning and performance among medical and graduate students. Few studies have examined psychological stress in chiropractic students and interns. This preliminary study explored interns' perceptions around stress and confidence at the midpoint of professional training. Methods: This pilot study used a mixed-methods approach, combining rating scales and modified qualitative methods, to explore interns' lived experience. Eighty-eight interns provided ratings of stress and confidence and narrative responses to broad questions. Results: Participants reported multiple sources of stress; stress and confidence ratings were inversely related. Interns described stress as forced priorities, inadequate time, and perceptions of weak performance. Two themes, “convey respect” and “guide real-world learning,” describe faculty actions that minimized stress and promoted confidence. Conclusion: Chiropractic interns experience varying degrees of stress, which is managed with diverse strategies. The development of confidence appears to be influenced by the consistency and manner in which feedback is provided. Although faculty cannot control the amount or sources of stress, awareness of interns' perceptions can strengthen our effectiveness as educators. PMID:18483584

  6. Farmers' confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Enticott, G; Maye, D; Ilbery, B; Fisher, R; Kirwan, J

    2012-02-25

    This paper examines UK farmers' levels of confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and their trust in the Government's ability to deal with bTB. In 2010, a badger vaccine based on the BCG vaccine was licensed following field trials and used as part of the UK Government's Badger Vaccination Deployment Project. A stratified random sample of cattle farmers in five different locations of England was surveyed using a telephone survey to elicit their views of badger vaccination. The survey provided a total of 341 responses with a response rate of 80 per cent. Results suggest that the farmers are cautious about badger vaccination, appearing to be neither overly confident nor unconfident in it. However, the farmers did not reveal high levels of trust in the Government to manage bTB policy or badger vaccination. There were no differences in the levels of confidence or trust between farms that were under bTB restrictions at the time of the survey and those that were not or between farms with historically high levels of bTB. Analysis of principal components suggests that 33 per cent of the farmers accepted badger vaccination, but that acceptance is dependent on the wider social and political environment. PMID:22238199

  7. Farmers' confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Enticott, G; Maye, D; Ilbery, B; Fisher, R; Kirwan, J

    2012-02-25

    This paper examines UK farmers' levels of confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and their trust in the Government's ability to deal with bTB. In 2010, a badger vaccine based on the BCG vaccine was licensed following field trials and used as part of the UK Government's Badger Vaccination Deployment Project. A stratified random sample of cattle farmers in five different locations of England was surveyed using a telephone survey to elicit their views of badger vaccination. The survey provided a total of 341 responses with a response rate of 80 per cent. Results suggest that the farmers are cautious about badger vaccination, appearing to be neither overly confident nor unconfident in it. However, the farmers did not reveal high levels of trust in the Government to manage bTB policy or badger vaccination. There were no differences in the levels of confidence or trust between farms that were under bTB restrictions at the time of the survey and those that were not or between farms with historically high levels of bTB. Analysis of principal components suggests that 33 per cent of the farmers accepted badger vaccination, but that acceptance is dependent on the wider social and political environment.

  8. Adaptive Confidence Bands for Nonparametric Regression Functions

    PubMed Central

    Cai, T. Tony; Low, Mark; Ma, Zongming

    2014-01-01

    A new formulation for the construction of adaptive confidence bands in non-parametric function estimation problems is proposed. Confidence bands are constructed which have size that adapts to the smoothness of the function while guaranteeing that both the relative excess mass of the function lying outside the band and the measure of the set of points where the function lies outside the band are small. It is shown that the bands adapt over a maximum range of Lipschitz classes. The adaptive confidence band can be easily implemented in standard statistical software with wavelet support. Numerical performance of the procedure is investigated using both simulated and real datasets. The numerical results agree well with the theoretical analysis. The procedure can be easily modified and used for other nonparametric function estimation models. PMID:26269661

  9. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    PubMed

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  10. Unexpected arousal modulates the influence of sensory noise on confidence

    PubMed Central

    Allen, Micah; Frank, Darya; Schwarzkopf, D Samuel; Fardo, Francesca; Winston, Joel S; Hauser, Tobias U; Rees, Geraint

    2016-01-01

    Human perception is invariably accompanied by a graded feeling of confidence that guides metacognitive awareness and decision-making. It is often assumed that this arises solely from the feed-forward encoding of the strength or precision of sensory inputs. In contrast, interoceptive inference models suggest that confidence reflects a weighted integration of sensory precision and expectations about internal states, such as arousal. Here we test this hypothesis using a novel psychophysical paradigm, in which unseen disgust-cues induced unexpected, unconscious arousal just before participants discriminated motion signals of variable precision. Across measures of perceptual bias, uncertainty, and physiological arousal we found that arousing disgust cues modulated the encoding of sensory noise. Furthermore, the degree to which trial-by-trial pupil fluctuations encoded this nonlinear interaction correlated with trial level confidence. Our results suggest that unexpected arousal regulates perceptual precision, such that subjective confidence reflects the integration of both external sensory and internal, embodied states. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18103.001 PMID:27776633

  11. Flood frequency analysis: Confidence interval estimation by test inversion bootstrapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schendel, Thomas; Thongwichian, Rossukon

    2015-09-01

    A common approach to estimate extreme flood events is the annual block maxima approach, where for each year the peak streamflow is determined and a distribution (usually the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV)) is fitted to this series of maxima. Eventually this distribution is used to estimate the return level for a defined return period. However, due to the finite sample size, the estimated return levels are associated with a range of uncertainity, usually expressed via confidence intervals. Previous publications have shown that existing bootstrapping methods for estimating the confidence intervals of the GEV yield too narrow estimates of these uncertainty ranges. Therefore, we present in this article a novel approach based on the less known test inversion bootstrapping, which we adapted especially for complex quantities like the return level. The reliability of this approach is studied and its performance is compared to other bootstrapping methods as well as the Profile Likelihood technique. It is shown that the new approach improves significantly the coverage of confidence intervals compared to other bootstrapping methods and for small sample sizes should even be favoured over the Profile Likelihood.

  12. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.

    2000-07-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  13. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  14. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  15. The Confidence Factor in Liberal Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    With the US unemployment rate at 9 percent, it's rational for college students to lose confidence in the liberal arts and to opt for a vocational major. Or is it? There is a compelling economic case for the liberal arts. Against those who call for more professional training, liberal educators should concede nothing. However, they do have a…

  16. Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

  17. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  18. Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zou, Guang Yong

    2007-01-01

    Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

  19. Mixed Confidence Estimation for Iterative CT Reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Perlmutter, David S; Kim, Soo Mee; Kinahan, Paul E; Alessio, Adam M

    2016-09-01

    Dynamic (4D) CT imaging is used in a variety of applications, but the two major drawbacks of the technique are its increased radiation dose and longer reconstruction time. Here we present a statistical analysis of our previously proposed Mixed Confidence Estimation (MCE) method that addresses both these issues. This method, where framed iterative reconstruction is only performed on the dynamic regions of each frame while static regions are fixed across frames to a composite image, was proposed to reduce computation time. In this work, we generalize the previous method to describe any application where a portion of the image is known with higher confidence (static, composite, lower-frequency content, etc.) and a portion of the image is known with lower confidence (dynamic, targeted, etc). We show that by splitting the image space into higher and lower confidence components, MCE can lower the estimator variance in both regions compared to conventional reconstruction. We present a theoretical argument for this reduction in estimator variance and verify this argument with proof-of-principle simulations. We also propose a fast approximation of the variance of images reconstructed with MCE and confirm that this approximation is accurate compared to analytic calculations of and multi-realization image variance. This MCE method requires less computation time and provides reduced image variance for imaging scenarios where portions of the image are known with more certainty than others allowing for potentially reduced radiation dose and/or improved dynamic imaging. PMID:27008663

  20. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  1. Random selection as a confidence building tool

    SciTech Connect

    Macarthur, Duncan W; Hauck, Danielle; Langner, Diana; Thron, Jonathan; Smith, Morag; Williams, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Any verification measurement performed on potentially classified nuclear material must satisfy two seemingly contradictory constraints. First and foremost, no classified information can be released. At the same time, the monitoring party must have confidence in the veracity of the measurement. The first concern can be addressed by performing the measurements within the host facility using instruments under the host's control. Because the data output in this measurement scenario is also under host control, it is difficult for the monitoring party to have confidence in that data. One technique for addressing this difficulty is random selection. The concept of random selection can be thought of as four steps: (1) The host presents several 'identical' copies of a component or system to the monitor. (2) One (or more) of these copies is randomly chosen by the monitors for use in the measurement system. (3) Similarly, one or more is randomly chosen to be validated further at a later date in a monitor-controlled facility. (4) Because the two components or systems are identical, validation of the 'validation copy' is equivalent to validation of the measurement system. This procedure sounds straightforward, but effective application may be quite difficult. Although random selection is often viewed as a panacea for confidence building, the amount of confidence generated depends on the monitor's continuity of knowledge for both validation and measurement systems. In this presentation, we will discuss the random selection technique, as well as where and how this technique might be applied to generate maximum confidence. In addition, we will discuss the role of modular measurement-system design in facilitating random selection and describe a simple modular measurement system incorporating six small {sup 3}He neutron detectors and a single high-purity germanium gamma detector.

  2. Written Language Disorders: Speech-Language Pathologists' Training, Knowledge, and Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blood, Gordon W.; Mamett, Callie; Gordon, Rebecca; Blood, Ingrid M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined speech-language pathologists' (SLPs') perceptions of their (a) educational and clinical training in evaluating and treating written language disorders, (b) knowledge bases in this area, (c) sources of knowledge about written language disorders, (d) confidence levels, and (e) predictors of confidence in working with…

  3. Statistical analysis of synaptic transmission: model discrimination and confidence limits.

    PubMed Central

    Stricker, C; Redman, S; Daley, D

    1994-01-01

    Procedures for discriminating between competing statistical models of synaptic transmission, and for providing confidence limits on the parameters of these models, have been developed. These procedures were tested against simulated data and were used to analyze the fluctuations in synaptic currents evoked in hippocampal neurones. All models were fitted to data using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and a maximum likelihood criterion. Competing models were evaluated using the log-likelihood ratio (Wilks statistic). When the competing models were not nested, Monte Carlo sampling of the model used as the null hypothesis (H0) provided density functions against which H0 and the alternate model (H1) were tested. The statistic for the log-likelihood ratio was determined from the fit of H0 and H1 to these probability densities. This statistic was used to determine the significance level at which H0 could be rejected for the original data. When the competing models were nested, log-likelihood ratios and the chi 2 statistic were used to determine the confidence level for rejection. Once the model that provided the best statistical fit to the data was identified, many estimates for the model parameters were calculated by resampling the original data. Bootstrap techniques were then used to obtain the confidence limits of these parameters. PMID:7948672

  4. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  5. Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1987-01-01

    An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

  6. Confidence as Bayesian Probability: From Neural Origins to Behavior.

    PubMed

    Meyniel, Florent; Sigman, Mariano; Mainen, Zachary F

    2015-10-01

    Research on confidence spreads across several sub-fields of psychology and neuroscience. Here, we explore how a definition of confidence as Bayesian probability can unify these viewpoints. This computational view entails that there are distinct forms in which confidence is represented and used in the brain, including distributional confidence, pertaining to neural representations of probability distributions, and summary confidence, pertaining to scalar summaries of those distributions. Summary confidence is, normatively, derived or "read out" from distributional confidence. Neural implementations of readout will trade off optimality versus flexibility of routing across brain systems, allowing confidence to serve diverse cognitive functions. PMID:26447574

  7. On the Confidence Limit of Hilbert Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Norden

    2003-01-01

    Confidence limit is a routine requirement for Fourier spectral analysis. But this confidence limit is established based on ergodic theory: For stationary process, temporal average equals the ensemble average. Therefore, one can divide the data into n-sections and treat each section as independent realization. Most natural processes in general, and climate data in particular, are not stationary; therefore, there is a need for the Hilbert Spectral analysis for such processes. Here ergodic theory is no longer applicable. We propose to use various adjustable parameters in the shifting processes of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method to obtain an ensemble of Intrinsic Mode Function 0 sets. Based on such an ensemble, we introduce a statistical measure in. a form of confidence limits for the Intrinsic Mode Functions, and consequently, the Hilbert spectra. The criterion of selecting the various adjustable parameters is based on the orthogonality test of the resulting M F sets. Length-of-day data from 1962 to 2001 will be used to illustrate this new approach. Its implication in climate data analysis will also be discussed.

  8. A temporal and spatial analysis of ground-water levels for effective monitoring in Huron County, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holtschlag, David J.; Sweat, M.J.

    1999-01-01

    Quarterly water-level measurements were analyzed to assess the effectiveness of a monitoring network of 26 wells in Huron County, Michigan. Trends were identified as constant levels and autoregressive components were computed at all wells on the basis of data collected from 1993 to 1997, using structural time series analysis. Fixed seasonal components were identified at 22 wells and outliers were identified at 23 wells. The 95- percent confidence intervals were forecast for water-levels during the first and second quarters of 1998. Intervals in the first quarter were consistent with 92.3 percent of the measured values. In the second quarter, measured values were within the forecast intervals only 65.4 percent of the time. Unusually low precipitation during the second quarter is thought to have contributed to the reduced reliability of the second-quarter forecasts. Spatial interrelations among wells were investigated on the basis of the autoregressive components, which were filtered to create a set of innovation sequences that were temporally uncorrelated. The empirical covariance among the innovation sequences indicated both positive and negative spatial interrelations. The negative covariance components are considered to be physically implausible and to have resulted from random sampling error. Graphical modeling, a form of multivariate analysis, was used to model the covariance structure. Results indicate that only 29 of the 325 possible partial correlations among the water-level innovations were statistically significant. The model covariance matrix, corresponding to the model partial correlation structure, contained only positive elements. This model covariance was sequentially partitioned to compute a set of partial covariance matrices that were used to rank the effectiveness of the 26 monitoring wells from greatest to least. Results, for example, indicate that about 50 percent of the uncertainty of the water-level innovations currently monitored by the 26

  9. Evaluation of undergraduate nursing students' clinical confidence following a mental health recovery camp.

    PubMed

    Cowley, Thomas; Sumskis, Sue; Moxham, Lorna; Taylor, Ellie; Brighton, Renee; Patterson, Chris; Halcomb, Elizabeth

    2016-02-01

    In the present study, we evaluate the impact of participation in a mental health recovery camp on the clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students in dealing with individuals with mental illness. Twenty undergraduate nursing students who participated in the recovery camp completed the Mental Health Nursing Clinical Confidence Scale both before and directly after attending the camp. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Participation in the recovery camp was associated with a statistically-significant increase in students' level of overall confidence between the pretest and post-test data (P < 0.005). The results also demonstrated that students over the age of 25 years and who do not have a family history of mental illness are more likely to self-report a higher level of confidence in both the pre- and post-results. The clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students improved through participation in an immersive clinical experience within the recovery camp.

  10. What is your savings personality? The 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey.

    PubMed

    Yakoboski, P; Ostuw, P; Hicks, J

    1998-08-01

    This Issue Brief presents the findings of the 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS). The survey tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into six distinct groups, based on their very different views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The six personality types identified in the RCS are Deniers (10 percent of the population), Strugglers (9 percent), Impulsives (20 percent), Cautious Savers (21 percent), Planners (23 percent), and Retiring Savers (17 percent). The survey shows that working Americans have become more focused on retirement; 45 percent have tried to determine how much they need to save before they retire, up from 32 percent in 1996. Americans' growing attention to their retirement has not increased their retirement income confidence. Since 1993, the portion of working Americans who are very confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement has consistently ranged from 20 percent to 25 percent. Sixty-three percent of Americans have begun to save for retirement. Fifty-five percent of those not saving for retirement say it is reasonably possible for them to save $20 per week (over $1,000 per year). In addition, 57 percent of workers who have begun to save say that it is reasonably possible for them to save an additional $20 per week. The findings demonstrate the continuing need for broad-based educational efforts designed to make retirement savings a priority for individuals. The good news is the evidence that education can have a real impact at the individual level. For the first time the 1998 RCS examined retirement planning, saving, and attitudes across ethnic groups (African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans, and whites). African-Americans are the least confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. African-Americans and Hispanic

  11. The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

    PubMed

    Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

  12. European security, nuclear weapons and public confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Gutteridge, W.

    1982-01-01

    This book presents papers on nuclear arms control in Europe. Topics considered include political aspects, the balance of power, nuclear disarmament in Europe, the implications of new conventional technologies, the neutron bomb, theater nuclear weapons, arms control in Northern Europe, naval confidence-building measures in the Baltic, the strategic balance in the Arctic Ocean, Arctic resources, threats to European stability, developments in South Africa, economic cooperation in Europe, European collaboration in science and technology after Helsinki, European cooperation in the area of electric power, and economic cooperation as a factor for the development of European security and cooperation.

  13. Confidence and conflicts of duty in surgery.

    PubMed

    Coggon, John; Wheeler, Robert

    2010-03-01

    This paper offers an exploration of the right to confidentiality, considering the moral importance of private information. It is shown that the legitimate value that individuals derive from confidentiality stems from the public interest. It is re-assuring, therefore, that public interest arguments must be made to justify breaches of confidentiality. The General Medical Council's guidance gives very high importance to duties to maintain confidences, but also rightly acknowledges that, at times, there are more important duties that must be met. Nevertheless, this potential conflict of obligations may place the surgeon in difficult clinical situations, and examples of these are described, together with suggestions for resolution. PMID:20353640

  14. The Relationship Between Clinicians' Confidence and Accuracy, and the Influence of Child Characteristics, in the Screening of Autism Spectrum Disorder.

    PubMed

    Hedley, Darren; Brewer, Neil; Nevill, Rose; Uljarević, Mirko; Butter, Eric; Mulick, James A

    2016-07-01

    The study examined the confidence accuracy relationship, and the influence of child characteristics on clinician confidence, when predicting a diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder during screening of 125 referred children aged under 3.5 years. The diagnostic process included observation, interview, language and developmental testing. Clinical judgement accuracy was compared against final diagnosis for high and low confidence levels (with confidence assessed on a 0-100 % scale). We identified a significant CA relationship with predictive accuracy highest at confidence levels of 90-100 %. Parent report of unusual behaviors was the only significant independent predictor of confidence. Clinicians' confidence may be important when evaluating decisions to refer, or not to refer, children for further diagnostic assessment. PMID:26975451

  15. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  16. Effect of a diet enriched with monounsaturated or polyunsaturated fatty acids on levels of low-density and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in healthy women and men.

    PubMed

    Mensink, R P; Katan, M B

    1989-08-17

    Polyunsaturated fatty acids are thought to lower the serum cholesterol level more effectively than monounsaturated fatty acids. It is unclear whether the difference--if any--is due to a lowering of the level of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) or low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. We therefore placed 31 women and 27 men on a mixed natural diet rich in saturated fat (19.3 percent of their daily energy intake from saturated fat, 11.5 percent from monounsaturated fat, and 4.6 percent from polyunsaturated fat) for 17 days. For the next 36 days, they received a mixed diet with the same total fat content, but enriched with olive oil and sunflower oil ("monounsaturated-fat diet": 12.9 percent saturated fat, 15.1 percent monounsaturated fat, and 7.9 percent polyunsaturated fat) or with sunflower oil alone ("polyunsaturated-fat diet": 12.6 percent saturated fat, 10.8 percent monounsaturated fat, and 12.7 percent polyunsaturated fat). The serum LDL cholesterol level decreased by 17.9 percent in those on the monounsaturated-fat diet and by 12.9 percent in those on the polyunsaturated-fat diet (95 percent confidence interval for the difference between the effects of the two unsaturated-fat diets, -9.9 percent to 0.0 percent). In men, the HDL cholesterol level fell slightly but not significantly with both diets. In women, the HDL cholesterol level did not change with either. We conclude that a mixed diet rich in monounsaturated fat was as effective as a diet rich in (n-6)polyunsaturated fat in lowering LDL cholesterol. Both diets lowered the level of HDL cholesterol slightly in men but not in women.

  17. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  18. Modal confidence factor in vibration testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibrahim, S. R.

    1978-01-01

    The modal confidence factor (MCF) is a number calculated for every identified mode for a structure under test. The MCF varies from 0.00 for a distorted nonlinear, or noise mode to 100.0 for a pure structural mode. The theory of the MCF is based on the correlation that exists between the modal deflection at a certain station and the modal deflection at the same station delayed in time. The theory and application of the MCF are illustrated by two experiments. The first experiment deals with simulated responses from a two-degree-of-freedom system with 20%, 40%, and 100% noise added. The second experiment was run on a generalized payload model. The free decay response from the payload model contained 22% noise.

  19. Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

  20. Dissociation between the impact of evidence on eye movement target choice and confidence judgements.

    PubMed

    McSorley, Eugene; Lyne, Clare; McCloy, Rachel

    2014-06-01

    It has been suggested that the evidence used to support a decision to move our eyes and the confidence we have in that decision are derived from a common source. Alternatively, confidence may be based on further post-decisional processes. In three experiments, we examined this. In Experiment 1, participants chose between two targets on the basis of varying levels of evidence (i.e., the direction of motion coherence in a random dot kinematogram). They indicated this choice by making a saccade to one of two targets and then indicated their confidence. Saccade trajectory deviation was taken as a measure of the inhibition of the non-selected target. We found that as evidence increased so did confidence and deviations of saccade trajectory away from the non-selected target. However, a correlational analysis suggested they were not related. In Experiment 2, an option to opt-out of the choice was offered on some trials if choice proved too difficult. In this way, we isolated trials on which confidence in target selection was high (i.e., when the option to opt-out was available but not taken). Again saccade trajectory deviations were found not to differ in relation to confidence. In Experiment 3, we directly manipulated confidence, such that participants had high or low task confidence. They showed no differences in saccade trajectory deviations. These results support post-decisional accounts of confidence: evidence supporting the decision to move the eyes is reflected in saccade control, but the confidence that we have in that choice is subject to further post-decisional processes.

  1. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    PubMed Central

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  2. Reasons to have confidence in condoms.

    PubMed

    Mcneill, E T

    1998-01-01

    When used regularly and correctly, latex condoms are highly reliable and effective in preventing pregnancy and sexually transmitted disease. However, condoms are not being used as much as they should be, mainly because of negative perceptions among both users and health care providers. The following reasons are presented and discussed as to why people should have more confidence in latex condoms: when used correctly, condoms are highly reliable and effective in preventing pregnancy and sexually transmitted disease; latex condoms provide an impermeable mechanical barrier to bacteria, viruses, and sperm; most users do not break condoms, and a proportion of breakage is preventable; modern condoms are manufactured with considerable precision; use of the proper lubricant improves condom use; condoms in intact foil packages last at least 5 years; and quality control and post-production quality assurance help to ensure the manufacture of a reliable product. While it remains to be determined how accurately the test standards predict results during human use, a combination of tests can provide data upon the quality of condoms in the field.

  3. High-Confidence Quantum Gate Tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Blake; da Silva, Marcus; Ryan, Colm; Kimmel, Shelby; Donovan, Brian; Ohki, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Debugging and verification of high-fidelity quantum gates requires the development of new tools and protocols to unwrap the performance of the gate from the rest of the sequence. Randomized benchmarking tomography[2] allows one to extract full information of the unital portion of the gate with high confidence. We report experimental confirmation of the technique's applicability to quantum gate tomography. We show that the method is robust to common experimental imperfections such as imperfect single-shot readout and state preparation. We also demonstrate the ability to characterize non-Clifford gates. To assist in the experimental implementation we introduce two techniques. ``Atomic Cliffords'' use phase ramping and frame tracking to allow single-pulse implementation of the full group of single-qubit Clifford gates. Domain specific pulse sequencers allow rapid implementation of the many thousands of sequences needed. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), through the Army Research Office contract no. W911NF-10-1-0324.

  4. Calculating Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes Using Noncentral Distributions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norris, Deborah

    This paper provides a brief review of the concepts of confidence intervals, effect sizes, and central and noncentral distributions. The use of confidence intervals around effect sizes is discussed. A demonstration of the Exploratory Software for Confidence Intervals (G. Cuming and S. Finch, 2001; ESCI) is given to illustrate effect size confidence…

  5. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  6. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to...

  7. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26... COMMUNITY Specific Sector Provisions for Medical Devices § 26.37 Confidence building activities. (a) At the beginning of the transitional period, the Joint Sectoral Group will establish a joint confidence...

  8. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to...

  9. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no...

  10. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no...

  11. Does Consumer Confidence Measure Up to the Hype?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffitts, Dawn

    2003-01-01

    This economic education publication features an article, "Does Consumer Confidence Measure Up to the Hype?," which defines consumer confidence and describes how it is measured. The article also explores why people might pay so much attention to consumer confidence indexes. The document also contains a question and answer section about deflation as…

  12. Relations among affect, abstinence motivation and confidence, and daily smoking lapse risk.

    PubMed

    Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M; Bold, Krysten W; Chapman, Gretchen B; McCarthy, Danielle E

    2014-06-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12-24 hr using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. One hundred and three adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries postquit. Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hr later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours although momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hr. Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments.

  13. Relations among Affect, Abstinence Motivation and Confidence, and Daily Smoking Lapse Risk

    PubMed Central

    Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M.; Bold, Krysten W.; Chapman, Gretchen B.; McCarthy, Danielle E.

    2016-01-01

    Aims This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12–24 hours using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. Method 103 adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries post-quit. Results Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hours later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours while momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hours. Conclusion Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments. PMID:24955665

  14. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  15. Clinician perceptions of personal safety and confidence to manage inpatient aggression in a forensic psychiatric setting.

    PubMed

    Martin, T; Daffern, M

    2006-02-01

    Inpatient mental health clinicians need to feel safe in the workplace. They also require confidence in their ability to work with aggressive patients, allowing the provision of therapeutic care while protecting themselves and other patients from psychological and physical harm. The authors initiated this study with the predetermined belief that a comprehensive and integrated organizational approach to inpatient aggression was required to support clinicians and that this approach increased confidence and staff perceptions of personal safety. To assess perceptions of personal safety and confidence, clinicians in a forensic psychiatric hospital were surveyed using an adapted version of the Confidence in Coping With Patient Aggression Instrument. In this study clinicians reported the hospital as safe. They reported confidence in their work with aggressive patients. The factors that most impacted on clinicians' confidence to manage aggression were colleagues' knowledge, experience and skill, management of aggression training, use of prevention and intervention strategies, teamwork and the staff profile. These results are considered with reference to an expanding literature on inpatient aggression. It is concluded that organizational resources, policies and frameworks support clinician perceptions of safety and confidence to manage inpatient aggression. However, how these are valued by clinicians and translated into practice at unit level needs ongoing attention.

  16. Computing confidence intervals for standardized regression coefficients.

    PubMed

    Jones, Jeff A; Waller, Niels G

    2013-12-01

    With fixed predictors, the standard method (Cohen, Cohen, West, & Aiken, 2003, p. 86; Harris, 2001, p. 80; Hays, 1994, p. 709) for computing confidence intervals (CIs) for standardized regression coefficients fails to account for the sampling variability of the criterion standard deviation. With random predictors, this method also fails to account for the sampling variability of the predictor standard deviations. Nevertheless, under some conditions the standard method will produce CIs with accurate coverage rates. To delineate these conditions, we used a Monte Carlo simulation to compute empirical CI coverage rates in samples drawn from 36 populations with a wide range of data characteristics. We also computed the empirical CI coverage rates for 4 alternative methods that have been discussed in the literature: noncentrality interval estimation, the delta method, the percentile bootstrap, and the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap. Our results showed that for many data-parameter configurations--for example, sample size, predictor correlations, coefficient of determination (R²), orientation of β with respect to the eigenvectors of the predictor correlation matrix, RX--the standard method produced coverage rates that were close to their expected values. However, when population R² was large and when β approached the last eigenvector of RX, then the standard method coverage rates were frequently below the nominal rate (sometimes by a considerable amount). In these conditions, the delta method and the 2 bootstrap procedures were consistently accurate. Results using noncentrality interval estimation were inconsistent. In light of these findings, we recommend that researchers use the delta method to evaluate the sampling variability of standardized regression coefficients.

  17. Students' confidence in the ability to transfer basic math skills in introductory physics and chemistry courses at a community college

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, Reginald

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the confidence levels that community college students have in transferring basic math skills to science classes, as well as any factors that influence their confidence levels. This study was conducted with 196 students at a community college in central Mississippi. The study was conducted during the month of November after all of the students had taken their midterm exams and received midterm grades. The instrument used in this survey was developed and validated by the researcher. The instrument asks the students to rate how confident they were in working out specific math problems and how confident they were in working problems using those specific math skills in physics and chemistry. The instrument also provided an example problem for every confidence item. Results revealed that students' demographics were significant predictors in confidence scores. Students in the 18-22 year old range were less confident in solving math problems than others. Students who had retaken a math course were less confident than those who had not. Chemistry students were less confident in solving math problems than those in physics courses. Chemistry II students were less confident than those in Chemistry I and Principals of Chemistry. Students were least confident in solving problems involving logarithms and the most confident in solving algebra problems. In general, students felt that their math courses did not prepare them for the math problems encountered in science courses. There was no significant difference in confidence between students who had completed their math homework online and those who had completed their homework on paper. The researcher recommends that chemistry educators find ways of incorporating more mathematics in their courses especially logarithms and slope. Furthermore, math educators should incorporate more chemistry related applications to math class. Results of hypotheses testing, conclusions, discussions, and

  18. Relating confidence to information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-12-02

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing security risk results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to determine a qualitative measure of confidence in a qualitative reasoning result from the available information uncertainty in the result using membership values in the fuzzy sets of confidence. In this study information uncertainty is quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values. Measured values of information uncertainty in each result is used to obtain the confidence. The determined confidence values are used to compare competing scenarios and understand the influences on the desired result.

  19. Confidence through consensus: a neural mechanism for uncertainty monitoring.

    PubMed

    Paz, Luciano; Insabato, Andrea; Zylberberg, Ariel; Deco, Gustavo; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-02-24

    Models that integrate sensory evidence to a threshold can explain task accuracy, response times and confidence, yet it is still unclear how confidence is encoded in the brain. Classic models assume that confidence is encoded in some form of balance between the evidence integrated in favor and against the selected option. However, recent experiments that measure the sensory evidence's influence on choice and confidence contradict these classic models. We propose that the decision is taken by many loosely coupled modules each of which represent a stochastic sample of the sensory evidence integral. Confidence is then encoded in the dispersion between modules. We show that our proposal can account for the well established relations between confidence, and stimuli discriminability and reaction times, as well as the fluctuations influence on choice and confidence.

  20. Patient-reported confidence in primary healthcare: are there disparities by ethnicity or language?

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Sabrina T; Black, Charlyn; Cutler, Fred; Brooke, Rebecca; Haggerty, Jeannie L; Levesque, Jean-Frederic

    2014-01-01

    Objective To examine whether confidence in primary healthcare (PHC) differs among ethnic–linguistic groups and which PHC experiences are associated with confidence. Design A cross-sectional study where patient surveys were administered using random digit dialling. Regression models identify whether ethnic–linguistic group remains significantly associated with confidence in PHC. Setting British Columbia, Canada. Main outcome measures Confidence in PHC measured using a 0–10 scale, where a higher score indicates increased confidence in the ability to get needed PHC services. Participants Community-dwelling adults in the following ethnic–linguistic groups: English-speaking Chinese, Chinese-speaking Chinese, English-speaking South Asians, Punjabi-speaking South Asians and English-speakers of presumed European descent. Findings Based on a sample of 1211 respondents, confidence in PHC differed by ethnicity and the ability to speak English. Most of the differences in confidence by ethnic–linguistic group can be explained by various aspects of care experience. Patient experiences associated with lower confidence in PHC were: if care was received outside Canada, having to wait months to see their regular doctor and rating the quality of healthcare as good or fair/poor. Better patient experiences of their doctor being concerned about their feelings and being respectful and if they found wait times acceptable were associated with higher levels of confidence in PHC. The final regression model explained 30% of the variance. Conclusions Improving the delivery of PHC services through positive interactions between patients and their usual provider and acceptability of wait times are examples of how the PHC system can be strengthened. PMID:24568960

  1. Depressive symptoms in early marriage: predictions from relationship confidence and negative marital interaction.

    PubMed

    Whitton, Sarah W; Olmos-Gallo, P Antonio; Stanley, Scott M; Prado, Lydia M; Kline, Galena H; St Peters, Michelle; Markman, Howard J

    2007-06-01

    The authors proposed a model of depressive symptoms in early marriage in which relationship confidence, defined as perceived couple-level efficacy to manage conflicts and maintain a healthy relationship, mediates the effect of negative marital interactions on depressive symptoms. The model was tested in a sample of 139 couples assessed prior to marriage and 1 year later. As predicted, relationship confidence demonstrated simple negative associations with negative marital interaction and depressive symptoms for all participants. Longitudinal path analyses supported the mediational model for women only. In women but not men, negative marital interaction indirectly had an impact on depressive symptoms through the mediator of relationship confidence. Findings suggest that relationship confidence may be important to understanding links between marital distress and depressive symptoms, especially in women.

  2. Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Leif; Box, Neil; Carter, Katrina; DiFilippo, Denise; Harrington, Sean; Jackson, David; Lutomski, Michael

    2012-01-01

    There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.

  3. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes.

    PubMed

    Francisco-Fernández, Mario; Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper.

  4. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper. PMID:26828651

  5. Estimates of future inundation of salt marshes in response to sea-level rise in and around Acadia National Park, Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nielsen, Martha G.; Dudley, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    Salt marshes are ecosystems that provide many important ecological functions in the Gulf of Maine. The U.S. Geological Survey investigated salt marshes in and around Acadia National Park from Penobscot Bay to the Schoodic Peninsula to map the potential for landward migration of marshes using a static inundation model of a sea-level rise scenario of 60 centimeters (cm; 2 feet). The resulting inundation contours can be used by resource managers to proactively adapt to sea-level rise by identifying and targeting low-lying coastal areas adjacent to salt marshes for conservation or further investigation, and to identify risks to infrastructure in the coastal zone. For this study, the mapping of static inundation was based on digital elevation models derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) topographic data collected in October 2010. Land-surveyed control points were used to evaluate the accuracy of the LiDAR data in the study area, yielding a root mean square error of 11.3 cm. An independent accuracy assessment of the LiDAR data specific to salt-marsh land surfaces indicated a root mean square error of 13.3 cm and 95-percent confidence interval of ± 26.0 cm. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models and digital color aerial photography, taken during low tide conditions in 2008, with a pixel resolution of 0.5 meters, were used to identify the highest elevation of the land surface at each salt marsh in the study area. Inundation contours for 60-cm of sea-level rise were delineated above the highest marsh elevation for each marsh. Confidence interval contours (95-percent,± 26.0 cm) were delineated above and below the 60-cm inundation contours, and artificial structures, such as roads and bridges, that may present barriers to salt-marsh migration were mapped. This study delineated 114 salt marshes totaling 340 hectares (ha), ranging in size from 0.11 ha (marshes less than 0.2 ha were mapped only if they were on Acadia National Park property) to 52 ha, with a median

  6. Determination of land subsidence related to ground-water-level declines using Global Positioning System and leveling surveys in Antelope Valley, Los Angeles and Kern counties, California, 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ikehara, M.E.; Phillips, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    A large-scale, land-subsidence monitoring network for Antelope Valley, California, was established, and positions and elevations for 85 stations were measured using Global Positioning System geodetic surveying in spring 1992. The 95-percent confidence (2@) level of accuracy for the elevations calculated for a multiple-constraint adjustment generally ranged from +0.010 meter (0.032 foot) to +0.024 meter (0.078 foot). The magnitudes and rates of land subsidence as of 1992 were calculated for several periods for 218 bench marks throughout Antelope Valley. The maximum measured magnitude of land subsidence that occurred between 1926 and 1992 was 6.0 feet (1.83 meters) at BM 474 near Avenue I and Sierra Highway. Measured or estimated subsidence of 2-7 feet (.61-2.l3 meters) had occurred in a 210- square-mile (542-square-kilometer) area of Antelope Valley, generally bounded by Avenue K, Avenue A, 90th Street West, and 120th Street East, during the same period. Land subsidence in Antelope Valley is caused by aquifer-system compaction, which is related to ground-water-level declines and the presence of fine-grained, compressible sediments. Comparison of potentiomethric-surface, water-level decline, and subsidence-rate maps for several periods indicated a general correlation between water-level declines and the distribution and rate of subsidence in the Lancaster ground-water subbasin. A conservative estimate of the amount of the reduction in storage capacity of the aquifer system in the Lancaster subbasin is about 50,000 acre-feet in the area that has been affected by more than one foot (.30 meters) of subsidence as of 1992. Information on the history of ground-water levels and the distribution and thickness of fine-grained compressible sediments can be used to mitigate continued land subsidence. Future monitoring of ground-water levels and land-surface elevations in subsidence-sensitive regions of Antelope Valley may be an effective means to manage land subsidence.

  7. Fatigue, Sleep Loss, and Confidence in Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baranski, Joseph V.

    2007-01-01

    Sixty-four adults participated in a study examining the accuracy of metacognitive judgments during 28 hr of sleep deprivation (SD) and continuous cognitive work. Three tasks were studied (perceptual comparison, general knowledge, and mental addition), collectively spanning a range of cognitive abilities and levels of susceptibility to SD.…

  8. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    PubMed

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.

  9. A variance based confidence criterion for ERA identified modal parameters. [Eigensystem Realization Algorithm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Longman, Richard W.; Juang, Jer-Nan

    1988-01-01

    The realization theory is developed in a systematic manner for the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) used for system identification. First, perturbation results are obtained which describe the linearized changes in the identified parameters resulting from small change in the data. Formulas are then derived that can be used to evaluate the variance of each of the identified parameters, assuming that the noise level is sufficiently low to allow the application of linearized results. These variances can be converted to give confidence intervals for each of the parameters for any chosen confidence level.

  10. Mass media and heterogeneous bounds of confidence in continuous opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pineda, M.; Buendía, G. M.

    2015-02-01

    This work focuses on the effects of an external mass media on continuous opinion dynamics with heterogeneous bounds of confidence. We modified the original Deffuant et al. and Hegselmann and Krause models to incorporate both, an external mass media and a heterogeneous distribution of confidence levels. We analysed two cases, one where only two bounds of confidence are taken into account, and other where each individual of the system has her/his own characteristic level of confidence. We found that, in the absence of mass media, diversity of bounds of confidence can improve the capacity of the systems to reach consensus. We show that the persuasion capacity of the external message is optimal for intermediate levels of heterogeneity. Our simulations also show the existence, for certain parameter values, of a counter-intuitive effect in which the persuasion capacity of the mass media decreases if the mass media intensity is too large. We discuss similarities and differences between the two heterogeneous versions of these continuous opinion dynamic models under the influence of mass media.

  11. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  12. Method and system for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location

    DOEpatents

    Karnowski, Thomas P.; Tobin, Jr., Kenneth W.; Muthusamy Govindasamy, Vijaya Priya; Chaum, Edward

    2012-07-10

    A method for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location that includes analyzing a retinal image and determining at least two sets of coordinates locating an optic disc in the retinal image. The sets of coordinates can be determined using first and second image analysis techniques that are different from one another. An accuracy parameter can be calculated and compared to a primary risk cut-off value. A high confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is less than the primary risk cut-off value and a low confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is greater than the primary risk cut-off value. The primary risk cut-off value being selected to represent an acceptable risk of misdiagnosis of a disease having retinal manifestations by the automated technique.

  13. The use of latin hypercube sampling for the efficient estimation of confidence intervals

    SciTech Connect

    Grabaskas, D.; Denning, R.; Aldemir, T.; Nakayama, M. K.

    2012-07-01

    Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) has long been used as a way of assuring adequate sampling of the tails of distributions in a Monte Carlo analysis and provided the framework for the uncertainty analysis performed in the NUREG-1150 risk assessment. However, this technique has not often been used in the performance of regulatory analyses due to the inability to establish confidence levels on the quantiles of the output distribution. Recent work has demonstrated a method that makes this possible. This method is compared to the procedure of crude Monte Carlo using order statistics, which is currently used to establish confidence levels. The results of several statistical examples demonstrate that the LHS confidence interval method can provide a more accurate and precise solution, but issues remain when applying the technique generally. (authors)

  14. Generating confidence intervals on biological networks

    PubMed Central

    Thorne, Thomas; Stumpf, Michael PH

    2007-01-01

    Background In the analysis of networks we frequently require the statistical significance of some network statistic, such as measures of similarity for the properties of interacting nodes. The structure of the network may introduce dependencies among the nodes and it will in general be necessary to account for these dependencies in the statistical analysis. To this end we require some form of Null model of the network: generally rewired replicates of the network are generated which preserve only the degree (number of interactions) of each node. We show that this can fail to capture important features of network structure, and may result in unrealistic significance levels, when potentially confounding additional information is available. Methods We present a new network resampling Null model which takes into account the degree sequence as well as available biological annotations. Using gene ontology information as an illustration we show how this information can be accounted for in the resampling approach, and the impact such information has on the assessment of statistical significance of correlations and motif-abundances in the Saccharomyces cerevisiae protein interaction network. An algorithm, GOcardShuffle, is introduced to allow for the efficient construction of an improved Null model for network data. Results We use the protein interaction network of S. cerevisiae; correlations between the evolutionary rates and expression levels of interacting proteins and their statistical significance were assessed for Null models which condition on different aspects of the available data. The novel GOcardShuffle approach results in a Null model for annotated network data which appears better to describe the properties of real biological networks. Conclusion An improved statistical approach for the statistical analysis of biological network data, which conditions on the available biological information, leads to qualitatively different results compared to approaches which

  15. Nearly 95 Percent of Low-Income Uninsured Children Now Are Eligible for Medicaid or SCHIP: Measures Need To Increase Enrollment among Eligible but Uninsured Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Broaddus, Matthew; Ku, Leighton

    Recent expansions in Medicaid coverage for children and state health insurance programs for children mean that the majority of low-income children in the United States now are eligible for health insurance. A new analysis of Census data, presented in this report, finds that 94% of all uninsured children with family incomes below twice the poverty…

  16. Information and Communication: Tools for Increasing Confidence in the Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    Beginning with a review of signs and signals of public attitudes toward American education over the last 15 years, this paper analyzes some concerns regarding public confidence in public schools. Following a brief introduction, issues involved in the definition and behavioral attributes of confidence are mentioned. A synopsis of three approaches…

  17. Confidence and memory: assessing positive and negative correlations.

    PubMed

    Roediger, Henry L; DeSoto, K Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The capacity to learn and remember surely evolved to help animals solve problems in their quest to reproduce and survive. In humans we assume that metacognitive processes also evolved, so that we know when to trust what we remember (i.e., when we have high confidence in our memories) and when not to (when we have low confidence). However this latter feature has been questioned by researchers, with some finding a high correlation between confidence and accuracy in reports from memory and others finding little to no correlation. In two experiments we report a recognition memory paradigm that, using the same materials (categorised lists), permits the study of positive correlations, zero correlations, and negative correlations between confidence and accuracy within the same procedure. We had subjects study words from semantic categories with the five items most frequently produced in norms omitted from the list; later, subjects were given an old/new recognition test and made confidence ratings on their judgements. Although the correlation between confidence and accuracy for studied items was generally positive, the correlation for the five omitted items was negative in some methods of analysis. We pinpoint the similarity between lures and targets as creating inversions between confidence and accuracy in memory. We argue that, while confidence is generally a useful indicant of accuracy in reports from memory, in certain environmental circumstances even adaptive processes can foster illusions of memory. Thus understanding memory illusions is similar to understanding perceptual illusions: Processes that are usually adaptive can go awry under certain circumstances.

  18. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  19. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  20. Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

  1. A Note on Confidence Interval Estimation and Margin of Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilliland, Dennis; Melfi, Vince

    2010-01-01

    Confidence interval estimation is a fundamental technique in statistical inference. Margin of error is used to delimit the error in estimation. Dispelling misinterpretations that teachers and students give to these terms is important. In this note, we give examples of the confusion that can arise in regard to confidence interval estimation and…

  2. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  3. Confidence vs. Authority: Visions of the Writer in Rhetorical Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perdue, Virginia

    By building up the confidence of student writers, writing teachers hope to reduce the hostility and anxiety so often found in authoritarian introductory college composition classes. Process oriented writing theory implicitly defines confidence as a wholly personal quality resulting from students' discovery that they do have "something to say" to…

  4. A Rasch Analysis of the Teachers Music Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yim, Hoi Yin Bonnie; Abd-El-Fattah, Sabry; Lee, Lai Wan Maria

    2007-01-01

    This article presents a new measure of teachers' confidence to conduct musical activities with young children; Teachers Music Confidence Scale (TMCS). The TMCS was developed using a sample of 284 in-service and pre-service early childhood teachers in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The TMCS consisted of 10 musical activities.…

  5. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  6. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  7. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  8. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  9. A (revised) confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaubaillon, J.

    2016-01-01

    A confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers is presented. The goal is to provide users with information regarding the way the forecasting is performed, so several degrees of confidence is achieved. This paper presents the meaning of the index coding system.

  10. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  11. Confidence and Gender Differences on the Mental Rotations Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooke-Simpson, Amanda; Voyer, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    The present study examined the relation between self-reported confidence ratings, performance on the Mental Rotations Test (MRT), and guessing behavior on the MRT. Eighty undergraduate students (40 males, 40 females) completed the MRT while rating their confidence in the accuracy of their answers for each item. As expected, gender differences in…

  12. Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

  13. Linking learning and confidence in developing expert practice.

    PubMed

    Currie, Kay

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents findings from a recent PhD grounded theory study exploring the practice development role of graduate specialist practitioners. A key finding within this theory is the influence of learning and confidence on the practitioner journey. The concept of confidence emerged repeatedly throughout the analysis and can be characterized as a motivational driver, a consequence of learning and gaining respect, and a condition for graduate specialist practitioners' moving on to impact in practice development. Analysis of the concept of confidence as it influences practice is limited in existing literature. This article seeks to address this gap by illustrating the centrality of learning and confidence in the development of expert specialist practices. It is anticipated that these findings will resonate with the experiences of clinicians and faculty internationally and heightened awareness of consequences of developing confidence can be utilized to strengthen the impact of a wide range of nursing programs.

  14. Development of a core confidence-higher order construct.

    PubMed

    Stajkovic, Alexander D

    2006-11-01

    The author develops core confidence as a higher order construct and suggests that a core confidence-higher order construct--not addressed by extant work motivation theories--is helpful in better understanding employee motivation in today's rapidly changing organizations. Drawing from psychology (social, clinical, and developmental) and social anthropology, the author develops propositions regarding the relationships between core confidence and performance, attitudes, and subjective well-being. The core confidence-higher order construct is proposed to be manifested by hope, self-efficacy, optimism, and resilience. The author reasons that these four variables share a common confidence core (a higher order construct) and may be considered as its manifestations. Suggestions for future research and implications of the work are discussed. PMID:17100479

  15. Pancreas Transplantation: An Alarming Crisis in Confidence.

    PubMed

    Stratta, R J; Gruessner, A C; Odorico, J S; Fridell, J A; Gruessner, R W G

    2016-09-01

    In the past decade, the annual number of pancreas transplantations performed in the United States has steadily declined. From 2004 to 2011, the overall number of simultaneous pancreas-kidney (SPK) transplantations in the United States declined by 10%, whereas the decreases in pancreas after kidney (PAK) and pancreas transplant alone (PTA) procedures were 55% and 34%, respectively. Paradoxically, this has occurred in the setting of improvements in graft and patient survival outcomes and transplanting higher-risk patients. Only 11 centers in the United States currently perform ≥20 pancreas transplantations per year, and most centers perform <5 pancreas transplantations annually; many do not perform PAKs or PTAs. This national trend in decreasing numbers of pancreas transplantations is related to a number of factors including lack of a primary referral source, improvements in diabetes care and management, changing donor and recipient considerations, inadequate training opportunities, and increasing risk aversion because of regulatory scrutiny. A national initiative is needed to "reinvigorate" SPK and PAK procedures as preferred transplantation options for appropriately selected uremic patients taking insulin regardless of C-peptide levels or "type" of diabetes. Moreover, many patients may benefit from PTAs because all categories of pancreas transplantation are not only life enhancing but also life extending procedures. PMID:27232750

  16. How trust in institutions and organizations builds general consumer confidence in the safety of food: a decomposition of effects.

    PubMed

    de Jonge, J; van Trijp, J C M; van der Lans, I A; Renes, R J; Frewer, L J

    2008-09-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between general consumer confidence in the safety of food and consumer trust in institutions and organizations. More specifically, using a decompositional regression analysis approach, the extent to which the strength of the relationship between trust and general confidence is dependent upon a particular food chain actor (for example, food manufacturers) is assessed. In addition, the impact of specific subdimensions of trust, such as openness, on consumer confidence are analyzed, as well as interaction effects of actors and subdimensions of trust. The results confirm previous findings, which indicate that a higher level of trust is associated with a higher level of confidence. However, the results from the current study extend on previous findings by disentangling the effects that determine the strength of this relationship into specific components associated with the different actors, the different trust dimensions, and specific combinations of actors and trust dimensions. The results show that trust in food manufacturers influences general confidence more than trust in other food chain actors, and that care is the most important trust dimension. However, the contribution of a particular trust dimension in enhancing general confidence is actor-specific, suggesting that different actors should focus on different trust dimensions when the purpose is to enhance consumer confidence in food safety. Implications for the development of communication strategies that are designed to regain or maintain consumer confidence in the safety of food are discussed.

  17. Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

    2010-01-01

    A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

  18. Assessing Pre-Service Teacher Attitudes and Skills with the Technology Integration Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Jeremy

    2009-01-01

    As technology integration continues to gain importance, preservice teachers must develop higher levels of confidence and proficiency in using technology in their classrooms (Kay, 2006). The acceptance of the National Educational Technology Standards for Teachers (NETS-T) by National Council for Accreditation of Teacher Education (NCATE) has…

  19. Tracking Preservice Kindergarten Teachers' Development of Singing Skills and Confidence: An Applied Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neokleous, Rania

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to (a) examine the effects of a music methods course on the singing skills of preservice kindergarten teachers, (b) document the nature and development of their skills during the course, and (c) trace any changes in their confidence levels toward singing as a result of the course. As an applied study which was carried…

  20. Canadian and Australian Pre-Service Teachers' Use, Confidence and Success in Various Behaviour Management Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reupert, Andrea; Woodcock, Stuart

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was twofold; first, to identify Australian and Canadian pre-service teachers' use, confidence and success in various behaviour management strategies, and second, to identify significant differences between the two cohorts. Pooled data indicated that pre-service teachers most frequently employ low level corrective…

  1. The Effect of Type of Podcasts and Learning Styles on Language Proficiency and Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Wei Qiang; Klein, James D.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the effect of type of podcasts and learning styles on speaking, listening, and confidence when college used podcasts for learning Chinese. It focused on college students enrolled in a beginning-level Chinese course at a large university in the southeastern United States. Findings indicated that listening to grammar podcasts…

  2. Can Confidence Come Too Soon? Collective Efficacy, Conflict and Group Performance over Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goncalo, Jack A.; Polman, Evan; Maslach, Christina

    2010-01-01

    Groups with a strong sense of collective efficacy set more challenging goals, persist in the face of difficulty, and are ultimately more likely to succeed than groups who do not share this belief. Given the many advantages that may accrue to groups who are confident, it would be logical to advise groups to build a high level of collective efficacy…

  3. Increasing Confidence to Decrease Reticence: A Qualitative Action Research in Second Language Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doqaruni, Vahid Rahmani

    2015-01-01

    This study reports on an action research on increasing the English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students' confidence in speaking. Participants involved in this study were 16 male university students who had an upper-intermediate level of English. Extra speaking activities were incorporated into the classroom for 8 successive weeks. Insights into…

  4. Instructor Gender and Student Confidence in the Sciences: A Need for More Role Models?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cotner, Sehoya; Ballen, Cissy; Brooks, D. Christopher; Moore, Randy

    2011-01-01

    Women are underrepresented in most scientific disciplines, with achievement gaps expanding throughout the career trajectory. Gender differences in perceptions of scientific competence are evident at an early age. We examined the extent to which college-level instructor gender affects the confidence of males and females in their scientific…

  5. The Confidence Factor: Some Results of the Phi Delta Kappa (PDK) Commission on Public Confidence in Education. A Research Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wayson, W. W.; And Others

    This study sought to determine characteristics of schools and districts that enjoy the public's strong confidence and to explore how these characteristics are created and retained. A screening procedure produced useable data from 181 "high-confidence" public schools, 30 private schools, and 45 school districts. As part of a preliminary pilot…

  6. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  7. Musculoskeletal education: an assessment of the clinical confidence of medical students.

    PubMed

    Truntzer, Jeremy; Lynch, Alison; Kruse, David; Prislin, Michael

    2014-06-01

    Musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions account for nearly 15-30 % of encounters in a primary care practice. Yet, studies demonstrate that medical students and residents lack the knowledge and confidence to care for many MSK conditions. This study addresses the design of focused MSK educational practices towards improving students' knowledge, interest, and confidence for conducting MSK examinations. Students attending a voluntary educational symposium on sports medicine were recruited to participate. The symposium was directed toward teaching elements of the MSK exam. Participants completed validated pre- and post-workshop surveys that assessed confidence in performing MSK examinations as well as satisfaction and perceived importance of MSK education. Additionally, mean survey responses from a convenience group of students who did not participate in the symposium were compared against the intervention group. Thirteen students participated in the educational symposium. Hundred and nine students completed the general survey. In the non-intervention group, students demonstrated knowledge and confidence improvements through the second year of medical school but did not show similar improvement in subsequent years. No difference in MSK confidence scores between fourth-year students going into high versus low MSK focused specialities was observed. In the intervention group students demonstrated improvements in confidence with respect to the knee, shoulder and ankle exams (p < 0.01). Areas not covered such as concussions and neuromuscular impairments failed to show significant change. Current core clinical training, at least at our school, does not achieve satisfactory levels of knowledge and confidence with respect to caring for MSK conditions. However, a focused didactic and skill development intervention does produce significant improvements. Follow-up is needed to determine whether these improvements are sustained.

  8. Families of smooth confidence bands for the survival function under the general random censorship model.

    PubMed

    Gulati, S; Padgett, W J

    1996-01-01

    Randomly right censored data often arise in industrial life testing and clinical trials. Several authors have proposed asymptotic confidence bands for the survival function when data are randomly censored on the right. All of these bands are based on the empirical estimator of the survival function. In this paper, families of asymptotic (1-alpha) 100% level confidence bands are developed from the smoothed estimate of the survival function under the general random censorship model. The new bands are compared to empirical bands, and it is shown that for small sample sizes, the smooth bands have a higher coverage probability than the empirical counterparts.

  9. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  10. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  11. Confidence Region Estimation for Groundwater Parameter Identification Problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vugrin, K. W.; Swiler, L. P.; Roberts, R. M.

    2007-12-01

    This presentation focuses on different methods to generate confidence regions for nonlinear parameter identification problems. Three methods for confidence region estimation are considered: a linear approximation method, an F--test method, and a Log--Likelihood method. Each of these methods are applied to three case studies. One case study is a problem with synthetic data, and the other two case studies identify hydraulic parameters in groundwater flow problems based on experimental well--test results. The confidence regions for each case study are analyzed and compared. Each of the three methods produce similar and reasonable confidence regions for the case study using synthetic data. The linear approximation method grossly overestimates the confidence region for the first groundwater parameter identification case study. The F--test and Log--Likelihood methods result in similar reasonable regions for this test case. For the second groundwater parameter identification case study, the linear approximation method produces a confidence region of reasonable size. In this test case, the F--test and Log--Likelihood methods generate disjoint confidence regions of reasonable size. The differing results, capabilities, and drawbacks of all three methods are discussed. Sandia is a multi program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04- 94AL85000. This research is funded by WIPP programs administered by the Office of Environmental Management (EM) of the U.S Department of Energy.

  12. Estimation of confidence intervals for federal waterfowl harvest surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geissler, P.H.

    1990-01-01

    I developed methods of estimating confidence intervals for the federal waterfowl harvest surveys conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). I estimated flyway harvest confidence intervals for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) (95% CI are .+-. 8% of the estimate). Canada geese (Branta canadensis) (.+-. 11%), black ducks (Anas rubripes) (.+-. 16%), canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) (.+-. 32%), snow geese (Chen caerulescens) (.+-. 43%), and brant (Branta bernicla) (.+-. 46%). Differences between annual estimate of 10, 13, 22, 42, 43, and 58% could be detected with mallards, Canada geese, black ducks, canvasbacks, snow geese, and brant, respectively. Estimated confidence intervals for state harvests tended to be much larger than those for the flyway estimates.

  13. Development of 3-D lithostratigraphic and confidence models at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buesch, D.C.; Nelson, J.E.; Dickerson, R.P.; Spengler, R.W.

    1993-01-01

    Computerized three-dimensional geologic models of potential high-level nuclear waste repositories such as Yucca Moutain, Nevada, are important for visualizing the complex interplay of (1) thickness and facies variations in lithostratigraphic units and (2) the disruption of these units by faults. The concept of a 'model of confidence' in the lithostratigraphic model is introduced to show where data are located versus regions where interpolations are included. Models of confidence can be based on (1) expert judgment, (2) geostatistical analysis, or (3) a simplified combination of these two methods. Linking of lithostratigraphic models and models of confidence provide guidelines for future characterization and modeling activities, as well as for design and construction of the Exploratory Studies Facility.

  14. Does MRI Increase the Diagnostic Confidence of Physicians in an Outpatient Memory Clinic

    PubMed Central

    Boelaarts, Leo; Scheltens, Philip; de Jonghe, Jos

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aim Data showing the usefulness of MRI to improve the accuracy of the diagnostic process in cognitive disorders were derived from studies in tertiary referral centers. MRI is widely used as a diagnostic tool in everyday practice, but it is unknown what the actual added value of MRI is. We studied the usefulness of MRI in the diagnostic process by measuring the change of confidence of the physician. Methods Physicians indicated confidence in their diagnosis before and after presentation of MR images using a visual analogue scale from 0-100%. Results Use of MRI increased the level of confidence by 3% in experienced clinicians and by 9% in inexperienced physicians. In 2/125 cases, MRI showed an unexpected finding. Conclusion MRI is a useful diagnostic tool in everyday practice of diagnosing cognitive disorders. PMID:27489558

  15. Adaptive automation, trust, and self-confidence in fault management of time-critical tasks.

    PubMed

    Moray, N; Inagaki, T; Itoh, M

    2000-03-01

    An experiment on adaptive automation is described. Reliability of automated fault diagnosis, mode of fault management (manual vs. automated), and fault dynamics affect variables including root mean square error, avoidance of accidents and false shutdowns, subjective trust in the system, and operator self-confidence. Results are discussed in relation to levels of automation, models of trust and self-confidence, and theories of human-machine function allocation. Trust in automation but not self-confidence was strongly affected by automation reliability. Operators controlled a continuous process with difficulty only while performing fault management but could prevent unnecessary shutdowns. Final authority for decisions and action must be allocated to automation in time-critical situations.

  16. A model for improving student confidence and experience in diagnostic sample collection and interpretation.

    PubMed

    Williams, Laurel E; Nettifee-Osborne, Julie A; Johnson, Jeffrey L

    2006-01-01

    Confidence and proficiency in diagnosing and treating a variety of diseases is of obvious importance to veterinary students. Traditional teaching methods relying on live-animal laboratories or teaching-hospital cases may not provide the breadth and depth of experience necessary to promote optimal development of confidence and skills. These settings also raise concerns about expense, about animal welfare when animals are used in teaching laboratories, and about the stress and potential risks associated with client-owned pets in the teaching hospital. A one-week course implemented in our veterinary curriculum provides the opportunity for students to develop self-assurance and experience in sample collection and interpretation skills in a realistic, clinical-model setting. This course provides students with significantly improved levels of confidence when performing procedures and interpreting results from a variety of procedures and helps prepare them to become clinicians entering the practice of veterinary medicine. PMID:16767653

  17. Stress pulls us apart: anxiety leads to differences in competitive confidence under stress.

    PubMed

    Goette, Lorenz; Bendahan, Samuel; Thoresen, John; Hollis, Fiona; Sandi, Carmen

    2015-04-01

    Social competition is a fundamental mechanism of evolution and plays a central role in structuring individual interactions and communities. Little is known about the factors that affect individuals' competitive success, particularly in humans. Key factors might include stress, a major evolutionary pressure that can affect the establishment of social hierarchies in animals, and individuals' trait anxiety, which largely determines susceptibility to stress and constitutes an important determinant of differences in competitive outcomes. Using an economic-choice experiment to assess competitive self-confidence in 229 human subjects we found that, whereas competitive self-confidence is unaffected by an individual's anxiety level in control conditions, exposure to the Trier social stress test for groups drives the behavior of individuals apart: low-anxiety individuals become overconfident, and high-anxiety individuals become underconfident. Cortisol responses to stress were found to relate to self-confidence, with the direction of the effects depending on trait anxiety. Our findings identify stress as a major regulator of individuals' competitiveness, affecting self-confidence in opposite directions in high and low anxious individuals. Therefore, our findings imply that stress may provide a new channel for generating social and economic inequality and, thus, not only be a consequence, but also a cause of inequality through its impact on competitive self-confidence and decision making in financially-relevant situations.

  18. Stress pulls us apart: anxiety leads to differences in competitive confidence under stress.

    PubMed

    Goette, Lorenz; Bendahan, Samuel; Thoresen, John; Hollis, Fiona; Sandi, Carmen

    2015-04-01

    Social competition is a fundamental mechanism of evolution and plays a central role in structuring individual interactions and communities. Little is known about the factors that affect individuals' competitive success, particularly in humans. Key factors might include stress, a major evolutionary pressure that can affect the establishment of social hierarchies in animals, and individuals' trait anxiety, which largely determines susceptibility to stress and constitutes an important determinant of differences in competitive outcomes. Using an economic-choice experiment to assess competitive self-confidence in 229 human subjects we found that, whereas competitive self-confidence is unaffected by an individual's anxiety level in control conditions, exposure to the Trier social stress test for groups drives the behavior of individuals apart: low-anxiety individuals become overconfident, and high-anxiety individuals become underconfident. Cortisol responses to stress were found to relate to self-confidence, with the direction of the effects depending on trait anxiety. Our findings identify stress as a major regulator of individuals' competitiveness, affecting self-confidence in opposite directions in high and low anxious individuals. Therefore, our findings imply that stress may provide a new channel for generating social and economic inequality and, thus, not only be a consequence, but also a cause of inequality through its impact on competitive self-confidence and decision making in financially-relevant situations. PMID:25705012

  19. Confidence intervals for a random-effects meta-analysis based on Bartlett-type corrections.

    PubMed

    Noma, Hisashi

    2011-12-10

    In medical meta-analysis, the DerSimonian-Laird confidence interval for the average treatment effect has been widely adopted in practice. However, it is well known that its coverage probability (the probability that the interval actually includes the true value) can be substantially below the target level. One particular reason is that the validity of the confidence interval depends on the assumption that the number of synthesized studies is sufficiently large. In typical medical meta-analyses, the number of studies is fewer than 20. In this article, we developed three confidence intervals for improving coverage properties, based on (i) the Bartlett corrected likelihood ratio statistic, (ii) the efficient score statistic, and (iii) the Bartlett-type adjusted efficient score statistic. The Bartlett and Bartlett-type corrections improve the large sample approximations for the likelihood ratio and efficient score statistics. Through numerical evaluations by simulations, these confidence intervals demonstrated better coverage properties than the existing methods. In particular, with a moderate number of synthesized studies, the Bartlett and Bartlett-type corrected confidence intervals performed well. An application to a meta-analysis of the treatment for myocardial infarction with intravenous magnesium is presented.

  20. Factors that influence physicians' and medical students' confidence in counseling patients about physical activity.

    PubMed

    Stanford, Fatima Cody; Durkin, Martin W; Stallworth, James Rast; Powell, Caroline Keller; Poston, Mary Beth; Blair, Steven N

    2014-06-01

    Less than half of US adults and two-thirds of US high school students do not meet current US guidelines for physical activity. We examined which factors promoted physicians' and medical students' confidence in counseling patients about physical activity. We established an online exercise survey targeting attending physicians, resident and fellow physicians, and medical students to determine their current level of physical activity and confidence in counseling patients about physical activity. We compared their personal level of physical activity with the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines of the US Department of Health and Human Services (USDHHS). We administered a survey in 2009 and 2010 that used the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. A total of 1,949 individuals responded to the survey, of whom 1,751 (i.e., 566 attending physicians, 138 fellow physicians, 806 resident physicians, and 215 medical students) were included in this analysis. After adjusting for their BMI, the odds that physicians and medical students who met USDHHS guidelines for vigorous activity would express confidence in their ability to provide exercise counseling were more than twice that of physicians who did not meet these guidelines. Individuals who were overweight were less likely to be confident than those with normal BMI, after adjusting for whether they met the vigorous exercise guidelines. Physicians with obesity were even less likely to express confidence in regards to exercise counseling. We conclude that physicians and medical students who had a normal BMI and met vigorous USDHHS guidelines were more likely to feel confident about counseling their patients about physical activity. Our findings suggest that graduate medical school education should focus on health promotion in their students, as this will likely lead to improved health behaviors in their students' patient populations.

  1. Land subsidence, groundwater levels, and geology in the Coachella Valley, California, 1993-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sneed, Michelle; Brandt, Justin T.; Solt, Mike

    2014-01-01

    Land subsidence associated with groundwater-level declines has been investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Coachella Valley, California, since 1996. Groundwater has been a major source of agricultural, municipal, and domestic supply in the valley since the early 1920s. Pumping of groundwater resulted in water-level declines as much as 15 meters (50 feet) through the late 1940s. In 1949, the importation of Colorado River water to the southern Coachella Valley began, resulting in a reduction in groundwater pumping and a recovery of water levels during the 1950s through the 1970s. Since the late 1970s, demand for water in the valley has exceeded deliveries of imported surface water, resulting in increased pumping and associated groundwater-level declines and, consequently, an increase in the potential for land subsidence caused by aquifer-system compaction. Global Positioning System (GPS) surveying and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) methods were used to determine the location, extent, and magnitude of the vertical land-surface changes in the southern Coachella Valley during 1993–2010. The GPS measurements taken at 11 geodetic monuments in 1996 and in 2010 in the southern Coachella Valley indicated that the elevation of the land surface changed –136 to –23 millimeters (mm) ±54 mm (–0.45 to –0.08 feet (ft) ±0.18 ft) during the 14-year period. Changes at 6 of the 11 monuments exceeded the maximum expected uncertainty of ±54 mm (±0.18 ft) at the 95-percent confidence level, indicating that subsidence occurred at these monuments between June 1996 and August 2010. GPS measurements taken at 17 geodetic monuments in 2005 and 2010 indicated that the elevation of the land surface changed –256 to +16 mm ±28 mm (–0.84 to +0.05 ft ±0.09 ft) during the 5-year period. Changes at 5 of the 17 monuments exceeded the maximum expected uncertainty of ±28 mm (±0.09 ft) at the 95-percent confidence level, indicating that subsidence occurred

  2. Adverse Outcome Pathways for Regulatory Applications: Examination of Four Case Studies With Different Degrees of Completeness and Scientific Confidence.

    PubMed

    Perkins, Edward J; Antczak, Philipp; Burgoon, Lyle; Falciani, Francesco; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gutsell, Steve; Hodges, Geoff; Kienzler, Aude; Knapen, Dries; McBride, Mary; Willett, Catherine

    2015-11-01

    Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) offer a pathway-based toxicological framework to support hazard assessment and regulatory decision-making. However, little has been discussed about the scientific confidence needed, or how complete a pathway should be, before use in a specific regulatory application. Here we review four case studies to explore the degree of scientific confidence and extent of completeness (in terms of causal events) that is required for an AOP to be useful for a specific purpose in a regulatory application: (i) Membrane disruption (Narcosis) leading to respiratory failure (low confidence), (ii) Hepatocellular proliferation leading to cancer (partial pathway, moderate confidence), (iii) Covalent binding to proteins leading to skin sensitization (high confidence), and (iv) Aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish (high confidence). Partially complete AOPs with unknown molecular initiating events, such as 'Hepatocellular proliferation leading to cancer', were found to be valuable. We demonstrate that scientific confidence in these pathways can be increased though the use of unconventional information (eg, computational identification of potential initiators). AOPs at all levels of confidence can contribute to specific uses. A significant statistical or quantitative relationship between events and/or the adverse outcome relationships is a common characteristic of AOPs, both incomplete and complete, that have specific regulatory uses. For AOPs to be useful in a regulatory context they must be at least as useful as the tools that regulators currently possess, or the techniques currently employed by regulators. PMID:26500288

  3. Adverse Outcome Pathways for Regulatory Applications: Examination of Four Case Studies With Different Degrees of Completeness and Scientific Confidence.

    PubMed

    Perkins, Edward J; Antczak, Philipp; Burgoon, Lyle; Falciani, Francesco; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gutsell, Steve; Hodges, Geoff; Kienzler, Aude; Knapen, Dries; McBride, Mary; Willett, Catherine

    2015-11-01

    Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) offer a pathway-based toxicological framework to support hazard assessment and regulatory decision-making. However, little has been discussed about the scientific confidence needed, or how complete a pathway should be, before use in a specific regulatory application. Here we review four case studies to explore the degree of scientific confidence and extent of completeness (in terms of causal events) that is required for an AOP to be useful for a specific purpose in a regulatory application: (i) Membrane disruption (Narcosis) leading to respiratory failure (low confidence), (ii) Hepatocellular proliferation leading to cancer (partial pathway, moderate confidence), (iii) Covalent binding to proteins leading to skin sensitization (high confidence), and (iv) Aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish (high confidence). Partially complete AOPs with unknown molecular initiating events, such as 'Hepatocellular proliferation leading to cancer', were found to be valuable. We demonstrate that scientific confidence in these pathways can be increased though the use of unconventional information (eg, computational identification of potential initiators). AOPs at all levels of confidence can contribute to specific uses. A significant statistical or quantitative relationship between events and/or the adverse outcome relationships is a common characteristic of AOPs, both incomplete and complete, that have specific regulatory uses. For AOPs to be useful in a regulatory context they must be at least as useful as the tools that regulators currently possess, or the techniques currently employed by regulators.

  4. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  5. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-13

    ... 2, 2013 (77 FR 65137). Results of that scoping process are documented in the ``Waste Confidence... Place, 8629 J.M. Keynes Drive, Charlotte, North Carolina 28262. November 6, 2013: Hyatt Regency...

  6. The self-assessment of confidence, by one vocational trainee

    PubMed Central

    Leonard, Colin

    1979-01-01

    A list of important topics in general practice was constructed and a trainee was asked to indicate his confidence about each topic on a one to five scale. Repeated use showed different confidence ratings by the same trainee, and an attempt was made to correlate factual knowledge by using a multiple choice questionnaire. Despite important limitations, which are described, this method may be useful in identifying suitable topics for teaching during the trainee year. PMID:541789

  7. Leaders, self-confidence, and hubris: what's the difference?

    PubMed

    Kerfoot, Karlene M

    2010-01-01

    Success can easily breed hubris. As leaders become more confident, their success can limit their learning because they develop repetitive patterns of filtering information based on past successes and discount information that does not agree with their patterns of success. It is important for leaders to stay grounded in reality and effective as their success grows. Humility, gratitude, and appreciation will avoid the overconfidence that leads to hubris. Building confidence in others is the mark of a great leader. Hubris is not.

  8. Sea Level Rise Scenarios and Predicted Impacts on New Hampshire's Hampton-Seabrook Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haile, R.; Hale, S. R.; Rock, B. N.

    2008-12-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Environmental Protection Agency, and the Union of Concerned Scientist, coastal areas could experience a rise in sea level from 0.3m (conservative) to 6m (extreme). Due in part to global warming, over the last 100 years mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea level has risen approximately 0.1m more than the average global rise. GIS models illustrating future sea level rise (SLR) projections were generated to assess the potential impact on beaches and estuaries of Hampton and Seabrook, New Hampshire (NH). Limited, but important, tidal wetlands are particularly at risk from rising sea levels. A raster unsupervised landcover classification and a Digital Elevation Model of the southeastern NH coastal region were overlain in ARC/GIS v. 9.0. Sea level rise predictions greater than 1.2m will result in the inundation of greater than 50 percent of the emergent area of the Hampton/Seabrook estuary and urban development fringing the estuary will be prone to greater flooding from storm surges and high tides. An approximate 6m rise in sea level will inundate greater than 95 percent of the Hampton-Seabrook tidal marsh and greater than 95 percent of New Hampshire's existing sand dunes.

  9. Regression models of monthly water-level change in and near the Closed Basin Division of the San Luis Valley, south-central Colorado

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watts, Kenneth R.

    1995-01-01

    regression models. These models also include an autoregressive term to account for serial correlation in the residuals. The adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2) for the 46 regression models range from 0.08 to 0.89, and the standard errors of estimate range from 0.034 to 2.483 feet. The regression models of monthly water- level change can be used to evaluate whether post-1985 monthly water-level change values at the selected observation wells are within the 95-percent confidence limits of predicted monthly water-level change.

  10. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    PubMed

    Löwer, Martin; Renard, Bernhard Y; de Graaf, Jos; Wagner, Meike; Paret, Claudia; Kneip, Christoph; Türeci, Ozlem; Diken, Mustafa; Britten, Cedrik; Kreiter, Sebastian; Koslowski, Michael; Castle, John C; Sahin, Ugur

    2012-01-01

    Next generation sequencing (NGS) has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR), to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence) and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence). All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50), none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set.

  11. The Asteroid Identification Problem. II. Target Plane Confidence Boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milani, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.

    1999-08-01

    The nominal orbit solution for an asteroid/comet resulting from a least squares fit to astrometric observations is surrounded by a region containing solutions equally compatible with the data, the confidence region. If the observed arc is not too short, and for an epoch close to the observations, the confidence region in the six-dimensional space of orbital elements is well approximated by an ellipsoid. This uncertainty of the orbital elements maps to a position uncertainty at close approach, which can be represented on a Modified Target Plane (MTP), a modification of the one used by Öpik. The MTP is orthogonal to the geocentric velocity at the closest approach point along the nominal orbit. In the linear approximation, the confidence ellipsoids are mapped on the MTP into concentric ellipses, computed by solving the variational equation. For an object observed at only one opposition, however, if the close approach is expected after many revolutions, the ellipses on the MTP become extremely elongated, therefore the linear approximation may fail, and the confidence boundaries on the MTP, by definition the nonlinear images of the confidence ellipsoids, may not be well approximated by the ellipses. In theory the Monte Carlo method by Muinonen and Bowell (1993, Icarus104, 255-279) can be used to compute the nonlinear confidence boundaries, but in practice the computational load is very heavy. We propose a new method to compute semilinear confidence boundaries on the MTP, based on the theory developed by Milani (1999, Icarus137, 269-292) to efficiently compute confidence boundaries for predicted observations. This method is a reasonable compromise between reliability and computational load, and can be used for real time risk assessment. These arguments can be applied to any small body approaching any planet, but in the case of a potentially hazardous object (PHO), either an asteroid or a comet whose orbit comes very close to that of the Earth, the application is most

  12. Lucky Guess or Knowledge: A Cross-Sectional Study Using the Bland and Altman Analysis to Compare Confidence-Based Testing of Pharmacological Knowledge in 3rd and 5th Year Medical Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kampmeyer, Daniela; Matthes, Jan; Herzig, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Multiple-choice-questions are common in medical examinations, but guessing biases assessment results. Confidence-based-testing (CBT) integrates indicated confidence levels. It has been suggested that correctness of and confidence in an answer together indicate knowledge levels thus determining the quality of a resulting decision. We used a CBT…

  13. Students' Confidence in the Ability to Transfer Basic Math Skills in Introductory Physics and Chemistry Courses at a Community College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Reginald

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the confidence levels that community college students have in transferring basic math skills to science classes, as well as any factors that influence their confidence levels. This study was conducted with 196 students at a community college in central Mississippi. The study was conducted during the month…

  14. Neonatal family care for 24 hours per day: effects on maternal confidence and breast-feeding.

    PubMed

    Wataker, Heidi; Meberg, Alf; Nestaas, Eirik

    2012-01-01

    In family care (FC) program for neonatal intensive care units (NICUs), parents are encouraged to reside together with their infant for 24 hours a day to actively be involved in the care. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of FC on maternal confidence and breast-feeding. Maternal confidence and rate of breast-feeding were assessed in 31 mothers offered FC that included special family rooms in the NICU, and in 30 mothers from a comparable NICU providing traditional care without such facilities. One week prior to hospital discharge, mothers in the FC group felt better informed regarding nursing issues and had more confidence in interpretation of the infants regarding feeding issues and in caregiving without staff attendance (P < .05). They also reported a higher level of empowerment (P < .05). Three months after discharge, the mothers in the FC group had a higher self-reported skill level for interpretation of the infant's signals and knowledge about breast-feeding (P < .05). Despite similar rate of breast-feeding at discharge, more infants in the FC group were breastfed 3 months after discharge (P < .05). An FC program in the NICU promoted better maternal confidence during the hospital stay and 3 months after discharge compared with traditional care.

  15. Smoking prevalence, attitudes, and confidence about tobacco roles among Australian nursing students.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Raoul A; Cholowski, Krystyna; Tzelepis, Flora; Stojanovski, Elizabeth

    2012-10-01

    This study identified major challenges to be addressed before student nurses can achieve their full potential in providing effective and comprehensive smoking cessation interventions. Smoking behaviors were assessed among undergraduate nursing students. In addition, students' attitudes, confidence levels, and support for extra training in tobacco control were examined. A nonprobability sample of 381 students at an Australian university was surveyed. The consent rate was 81%. Prevalence of current smoking was 21%. In the regression analysis, age group was the only statistically significant predictor of smoking status. Over one third (36%) did not endorse the nonsmoking exemplar role of their future profession. Most (60%) did not support the concept of routine smoking cessation intervention. Students who were smokers had significantly higher tobacco control confidence levels than nonsmokers. Smoking-related variables did not differ between students in different years of the course. Improved tobacco control training is needed at undergraduate level.

  16. Pediatricians' Confidence and Behaviors in Smoking Cessation Promotion and Knowledge of the Smoking Cessation Trust

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Katharine; Kisely, Steve; Gastanaduy, Mariella; Urrego, Fernando

    2016-01-01

    Background: Secondhand smoke exposure increases morbidity and mortality in children. Thirty-one percent of caregivers who accompany their children to the Ochsner Health Center for Children smoke, and none uses the services of the Smoking Cessation Trust (SCT), a free smoking cessation program for eligible Louisiana residents who began smoking before 1988. The objective of this study was 2-fold: first, to assess and compare pediatricians' confidence and behaviors in regard to smoking cessation promotion with caregivers, and second, to determine pediatricians' knowledge and comfort level with the SCT. Methods: Pediatricians were given a questionnaire to assess 12 parameters regarding their confidence and practice when screening, counseling, and referring caregivers to smoking cessation programs. Results: Thirty-six questionnaires were administered, of which 27 were completed (75%). Only 7.41% of respondents had formal training in smoking cessation, 18.52% had never heard of the SCT, and 92.59% do not refer to the SCT. All the pediatrician respondents stated that they were confident in their ability to screen for secondhand smoke exposure, 62.96% were confident in providing counseling, and 44.44% were confident in offering referrals. Most pediatricians very often or always screened for secondhand smoke exposure (77.78%); however, only 25.93% counseled smoking caregivers to quit, and only 11.11% provided a smoking cessation referral. Pediatricians stated that they were confident to screen, counsel, and refer caregivers; however, they were significantly less likely to report actually screening for secondhand smoke exposure (P<0.05), counseling (P<0.05), and referring caregivers (P<0.05). Conclusion: Efforts should be made to increase the rate by which pediatricians provide smoking cessation, counseling, and referrals to the SCT through education and training. PMID:27303221

  17. Comparison of health confidence in rural, suburban and urban areas in the UK and the USA: a secondary analysis

    PubMed Central

    Haven, Kristen; Celaya, Martín F; Pierson, Jaclyn; Weisskopf, Aron J; MacKinnon, Neil J

    2013-01-01

    Objective Confidence in healthcare may influence the patients’ utilisation of healthcare resources and perceptions of healthcare quality. We sought to determine whether self-reported confidence in healthcare differed between the UK and the USA, as well as by rurality or urbanicity. Design A secondary analysis of a subset of survey questions regarding self-reported confidence in healthcare from the 2010 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey. Setting Telephone survey of participants from the UK and the USA. Participants Our final analysis included 1511 UK residents (688 rural, 446 suburban, 372 urban, 5 uncategorised) and 2501 US residents (536 rural, 1294 suburban, 671 urban). Outcome measures Questions assessed respondents’ confidence in the effectiveness and affordability of the treatment. We compared survey outcomes from these questions between, and within, the two regions and among, and within, residence types (rural, suburban and urban). Results Significant differences were found in self-reported confidence in healthcare between the UK and US, among residence types, and between the two regions within residence types. Reported levels were higher in the UK. Within regions, significant differences by residence type were found for the US, but not the UK. Within the US, suburban respondents had the highest self-reported confidence in healthcare. Conclusions Significant differences exist between the UK and US in confidence in healthcare. In the US, but not in the UK, self-reported confidence is related to residence type. Within countries, significant differences by residence type were found for the US, but not the UK. Our findings warrant the examination of causes for relative confidence levels in healthcare between regions and among US residence types. PMID:23645916

  18. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience—approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain—to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This “emotor” control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on “confidence.” Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior. PMID:26869840

  19. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  20. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  1. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

  2. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  3. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  4. Confidence to cook vegetables and the buying habits of Australian households.

    PubMed

    Winkler, Elisabeth; Turrell, Gavin

    2009-10-01

    Cooking skills are emphasized in nutrition promotion but their distribution among population subgroups and relationship to dietary behavior is researched by few population-based studies. This study examined the relationships between confidence to cook, sociodemographic characteristics, and household vegetable purchasing. This cross-sectional study of 426 randomly selected households in Brisbane, Australia, used a validated questionnaire to assess household vegetable purchasing habits and the confidence to cook of the person who most often prepares food for these households. The mutually adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of lacking confidence to cook were assessed across a range of demographic subgroups using multiple logistic regression models. Similarly, mutually adjusted mean vegetable purchasing scores were calculated using multiple linear regression for different population groups and for respondents with varying confidence levels. Lacking confidence to cook using a variety of techniques was more common among respondents with less education (OR 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 10.75) and was less common among respondents who lived with minors (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.53) and other adults (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.78). Lack of confidence to prepare vegetables was associated with being male (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.24 to 4.08), low education (OR 6.60; 95% CI 2.08 to 20.91), lower household income (OR 2.98; 95% CI 1.02 to 8.72) and living with other adults (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.98). Households bought a greater variety of vegetables on a regular basis when the main chef was confident to prepare them (difference: 18.60; 95% CI 14.66 to 22.54), older (difference: 8.69; 95% CI 4.92 to 12.47), lived with at least one other adult (difference: 5.47; 95% CI 2.82 to 8.12) or at least one minor (difference: 2.86; 95% CI 0.17 to 5.55). Cooking skills may contribute to socioeconomic dietary differences, and may be a useful strategy for promoting fruit and vegetable

  5. An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick Charles

    1985-01-01

    An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

  6. Finite sample pointwise confidence intervals for a survival distribution with right-censored data.

    PubMed

    Fay, Michael P; Brittain, Erica H

    2016-07-20

    We review and develop pointwise confidence intervals for a survival distribution with right-censored data for small samples, assuming only independence of censoring and survival. When there is no censoring, at each fixed time point, the problem reduces to making inferences about a binomial parameter. In this case, the recently developed beta product confidence procedure (BPCP) gives the standard exact central binomial confidence intervals of Clopper and Pearson. Additionally, the BPCP has been shown to be exact (gives guaranteed coverage at the nominal level) for progressive type II censoring and has been shown by simulation to be exact for general independent right censoring. In this paper, we modify the BPCP to create a 'mid-p' version, which reduces to the mid-p confidence interval for a binomial parameter when there is no censoring. We perform extensive simulations on both the standard and mid-p BPCP using a method of moments implementation that enforces monotonicity over time. All simulated scenarios suggest that the standard BPCP is exact. The mid-p BPCP, like other mid-p confidence intervals, has simulated coverage closer to the nominal level but may not be exact for all survival times, especially in very low censoring scenarios. In contrast, the two asymptotically-based approximations have lower than nominal coverage in many scenarios. This poor coverage is due to the extreme inflation of the lower error rates, although the upper limits are very conservative. Both the standard and the mid-p BPCP methods are available in our bpcp R package. Published 2016. This article is US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. PMID:26891706

  7. Selecting accurate statements from the cognitive interview using confidence ratings.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Wayne T; Higham, Philip A

    2002-03-01

    Participants viewed a videotape of a simulated murder, and their recall (and confidence) was tested 1 week later with the cognitive interview. Results indicated that (a) the subset of statements assigned high confidence was more accurate than the full set of statements; (b) the accuracy benefit was limited to information that forensic experts considered relevant to an investigation, whereas peripheral information showed the opposite pattern; (c) the confidence-accuracy relationship was higher for relevant than for peripheral information; (d) the focused-retrieval phase was associated with a greater proportion of peripheral and a lesser proportion of relevant information than the other phases; and (e) only about 50% of the relevant information was elicited, and most of this was elicited in Phase 1.

  8. Confidence and certainty: distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals.

    PubMed

    Pouget, Alexandre; Drugowitsch, Jan; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-03-01

    When facing uncertainty, adaptive behavioral strategies demand that the brain performs probabilistic computations. In this probabilistic framework, the notion of certainty and confidence would appear to be closely related, so much so that it is tempting to conclude that these two concepts are one and the same. We argue that there are computational reasons to distinguish between these two concepts. Specifically, we propose that confidence should be defined as the probability that a decision or a proposition, overt or covert, is correct given the evidence, a critical quantity in complex sequential decisions. We suggest that the term certainty should be reserved to refer to the encoding of all other probability distributions over sensory and cognitive variables. We also discuss strategies for studying the neural codes for confidence and certainty and argue that clear definitions of neural codes are essential to understanding the relative contributions of various cortical areas to decision making. PMID:26906503

  9. Confidence as a Common Currency between Vision and Audition

    PubMed Central

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Le Corre, François; Mamassian, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The idea of a common currency underlying our choice behaviour has played an important role in sciences of behaviour, from neurobiology to psychology and economics. However, while it has been mainly investigated in terms of values, with a common scale on which goods would be evaluated and compared, the question of a common scale for subjective probabilities and confidence in particular has received only little empirical investigation so far. The present study extends previous work addressing this question, by showing that confidence can be compared across visual and auditory decisions, with the same precision as for the comparison of two trials within the same task. We discuss the possibility that confidence could serve as a common currency when describing our choices to ourselves and to others. PMID:26808061

  10. Confidence region estimation techniques for nonlinear regression :three case studies.

    SciTech Connect

    Swiler, Laura Painton (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Sullivan, Sean P. (University of Texas, Austin, TX); Stucky-Mack, Nicholas J. (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA); Roberts, Randall Mark; Vugrin, Kay White

    2005-10-01

    This work focuses on different methods to generate confidence regions for nonlinear parameter identification problems. Three methods for confidence region estimation are considered: a linear approximation method, an F-test method, and a Log-Likelihood method. Each of these methods are applied to three case studies. One case study is a problem with synthetic data, and the other two case studies identify hydraulic parameters in groundwater flow problems based on experimental well-test results. The confidence regions for each case study are analyzed and compared. Although the F-test and Log-Likelihood methods result in similar regions, there are differences between these regions and the regions generated by the linear approximation method for nonlinear problems. The differing results, capabilities, and drawbacks of all three methods are discussed.

  11. Does mood influence the realism of confidence judgments?

    PubMed

    Allwood, Carl Martin; Granhag, Pär Anders; Jonsson, Anna-Carin

    2002-07-01

    Previous research has shown that mood affects cognition, but the extent to which mood affects meta-cognitive judgments is a relatively over-looked issue. In the current study we investigated how mood influences the degree of realism in participants' confidence judgments (based on an episodic memory task). Using music and film in combination, we successfully induced an elated mood in half of the participants, but failed to induce a sad mood in the other half. In line with previous research, the participants in both conditions were overconfident in their judgments. However, and contrary to our prediction, our data indicated that there was no difference in the realism of the confidence between the conditions. When relating this result to previous research, our conclusion is that there is no, or very little, influence of mood of moderate intensity on the realism of confidence judgments.

  12. Knowledge and confidence of a convenience sample of australasian emergency doctors in managing dental emergencies: results of a survey.

    PubMed

    Samaei, Hossein; Weiland, Tracey Joy; Dilley, Stuart; Jelinek, George Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Background. We aimed to determine Australasian Specialist Emergency Physicians' and Emergency Physicians in Training (Trainees') level of knowledge of common dental emergencies. We also explored confidence in managing dental emergencies; predictors of confidence and knowledge; and preferences for further dental education. Methods. A questionnaire was distributed electronically (September 2011) and directly (November 2011) to Fellows and Trainees of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine. It explored demographics, confidence, knowledge of dental emergencies, and educational preferences. Results. Response rate was 13.6% (464/3405) and college members were proportionally represented by region. Fewer than half (186/446; 42%) had received dental training. Sixty-two percent (244/391, 95% CI 57.5-67.1) passed (>50%) a knowledge test. More than 60% incorrectly answered questions on dental fracture, periodontal abscess, tooth eruption dates, and ulcerative gingivitis. Forty percent (166/416) incorrectly answered a question about Ludwig's Angina. Eighty-three percent (360/433) were confident in the pharmacological management of toothache but only 26% (112/434) confident in recognizing periodontal disease. Knowledge was correlated with confidence (r = 0.488). Interactive workshops were preferred by most (386/415, 93%). Conclusions. The knowledge and confidence of Australasian Emergency Physicians and Trainees in managing dental emergencies are varied, yet correlated. Interactive training sessions in dental emergencies are warranted.

  13. Stress, health complaints and self-confidence: a comparison between young adult women in Sweden and USA.

    PubMed

    Hildingh, Cathrine; Luepker, Russell V; Baigi, Amir; Lidell, Evy

    2006-06-01

    Transition to adulthood is a period in life when women encounter conflicts, ambiguities and rapidly expanding roles that may be stressful and difficult to manage. The aim of this study was to compare stress in daily life, health complaints and self-confidence in 26-year old women in two different cultures. A health survey study was performed among Swedish women (n = 386) and American women (n = 201) living in urban areas at the West coast of Sweden and in Minnesota. Both Swedish and American women reported stress in their everyday life, with higher figures for the Americans. Overall health was rated lower by the Swedish women and they reported more health complaints such as headache, general tiredness, irritability, depression and sleeping disorders. There was a difference between groups in self-confidence with higher figures for excellent self-confidence among American women. However, low self-confidence was reported by more American than Swedish women. A good work situation predicted self-confidence in Swedish women and financial confidence in American women. Physical fitness was associated with self-confidence in both groups. Young women in both cultures experienced high level of stress but health related complaints were more common among Swedish women. High stress and health complaints must be taken seriously and interventions to support young women in the midst of transition to adulthood should contain stress reduction as well as empowerment performed in a more effective way than today in different health care settings and at place of work. PMID:16756526

  14. Fast and Accurate Construction of Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

    PubMed

    Schweiger, Regev; Kaufman, Shachar; Laaksonen, Reijo; Kleber, Marcus E; März, Winfried; Eskin, Eleazar; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

    2016-06-01

    Estimation of heritability is fundamental in genetic studies. Recently, heritability estimation using linear mixed models (LMMs) has gained popularity because these estimates can be obtained from unrelated individuals collected in genome-wide association studies. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. Existing methods for the construction of confidence intervals and estimators of SEs for REML rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals. Here, we show that the estimation of confidence intervals by state-of-the-art methods is inaccurate, especially when the true heritability is relatively low or relatively high. We further show that these inaccuracies occur in datasets including thousands of individuals. Such biases are present, for example, in estimates of heritability of gene expression in the Genotype-Tissue Expression project and of lipid profiles in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study. We also show that often the probability that the genetic component is estimated as 0 is high even when the true heritability is bounded away from 0, emphasizing the need for accurate confidence intervals. We propose a computationally efficient method, ALBI (accurate LMM-based heritability bootstrap confidence intervals), for estimating the distribution of the heritability estimator and for constructing accurate confidence intervals. Our method can be used as an add-on to existing methods for estimating heritability and variance components, such as GCTA, FaST-LMM, GEMMA, or EMMAX. PMID:27259052

  15. Golfers have better balance control and confidence than healthy controls.

    PubMed

    Gao, Kelly L; Hui-Chan, Christina W Y; Tsang, William W N

    2011-11-01

    In a well-executed golf swing, golfers must maintain good balance and precise control of posture. Golfing also requires prolonged walking over uneven ground such as a hilly course. Therefore, repeated golf practice may enhance balance control and confidence in the golfers. The objective is to investigate whether older golfers had better balance control and confidence than non-golfing older, healthy adults. This is a cross-sectional study, conducted at a University-based rehabilitation center. Eleven golfers and 12 control subjects (all male; mean age: 66.2 ± 6.8 and 71.3 ± 6.6 years, respectively) were recruited. Two balance control tests were administered: (1) functional reach test which measured subjects' maximum forward distance in standing; (2) sensory organization test (SOT) which examined subjects' abilities to use somatosensory, visual, and vestibular inputs to control body sway during stance. The modified Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) determined subject's balance confidence in daily activities. The golfers were found to achieve significantly longer distance in the functional reach test than controls. They manifested significantly better balance than controls in the visual ratio and vestibular ratio, but not the somatosensory ratio of the SOT. The golfers also reported significantly higher balance confidence score ratios. Furthermore, older adults' modified ABC score ratios showed positive correlations with functional reach, visual and vestibular ratios, but not with somatosensory ratio. Golfing is an activity which may enhance both the physical and psychological aspects of balance control. Significant correlations between these measures reveal the importance of the balance control under reduced or conflicting sensory conditions in older adults' balance confidence in their daily activities. Since cause-and-effect could not be established in the present cross-sectional study, further prospective intervention design is warranted. PMID

  16. CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1987-01-01

    A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

  17. Knowledge about epilepsy and confidence in instructing students with epilepsy: teachers' responses to a new scale.

    PubMed

    Wodrich, David L; Jarrar, Randa; Buchhalter, Jeffrey; Levy, Roy; Gay, Catherine

    2011-02-01

    Knowledgeable and confident teachers are crucial for students with epilepsy. In this study, 91 current teachers of a student with epilepsy (CTs) and 203 teachers in general (TiGs) were surveyed using a new scale. CTs knew more school-relevant epilepsy facts than TiGs, even after controlling for special education background, F(1, 293)=5.75, P=0.017, η(2)=0.02. Both groups of teachers, however, knew less than one-half of the facts (means=10.6 [CTs] 8.7 [TiGs] of 25 items). CTs also expressed greater confidence than TiGs in their ability to meet an array of instructional, safety, and psychosocial requirements, even when between-group differences in teachers' background in special education were controlled, F(1, 293)=34.97, P<0.001, η(2)=0.11. Still, neither group communicated a high absolute level of confidence. As expected, more knowledgeable teachers expressed greater confidence (r=0.43, P<0.001). Results suggest that some facts about epilepsy require additional dissemination to educators.

  18. Emotion as a boost to metacognition: how worry enhances the quality of confidence.

    PubMed

    Massoni, Sébastien

    2014-10-01

    Emotion and cognition are known to interact during human decision processes. In this study we focus on a specific kind of cognition, namely metacognition. Our experiment induces a negative emotion, worry, during a perceptual task. In a numerosity task subjects have to make a two alternative forced choice and then reveal their confidence in this decision. We measure metacognition in terms of discrimination and calibration abilities. Our results show that metacognition, but not choice, is affected by the level of worry anticipated before the decision. Under worry individuals tend to have better metacognition in terms of the two measures. Furthermore understanding the formation of confidence is better explained with taking into account the level of worry in the model. This study shows the importance of an emotional component in the formation and the quality of the subjective probabilities.

  19. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-01

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence. PMID:27151640

  20. Declines in trust in others and confidence in institutions among American adults and late adolescents, 1972-2012.

    PubMed

    Twenge, Jean M; Campbell, W Keith; Carter, Nathan T

    2014-10-01

    Between 1972 and 2012, Americans became significantly less trusting of each other and less confident in large institutions, such as the news media, business, religious organizations, the medical establishment, Congress, and the presidency. Levels of trust and confidence, key indicators of social capital, reached all-time or near-all-time lows in 2012 in the nationally representative General Social Survey of adults (1972-2012; N = 37,493) and the nationally representative Monitoring the Future survey of 12th graders (1976-2012; N = 101,633). Hierarchical modeling analyses separating the effects of time period, generation, and age show that this decline in social capital is primarily a time-period effect. Confidence in institutions is also influenced by generation, with Baby Boomers lowest. Trust was lowest when income inequality was high, and confidence in institutions was lowest when poverty rates were high. The prediction of a sustained revival in social capital after 2001 seems to have been premature.

  1. Accuracy in Parameter Estimation for the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation: Sample Size Planning for Narrow Confidence Intervals.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Ken; Lai, Keke

    2011-02-01

    The root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) is one of the most widely reported measures of misfit/fit in applications of structural equation modeling. When the RMSEA is of interest, so too should be the accompanying confidence interval. A narrow confidence interval reveals that the plausible parameter values are confined to a relatively small range at the specified level of confidence. The accuracy in parameter estimation approach to sample size planning is developed for the RMSEA so that the confidence interval for the population RMSEA will have a width whose expectation is sufficiently narrow. Analytic developments are shown to work well with a Monte Carlo simulation study. Freely available computer software is developed so that the methods discussed can be implemented. The methods are demonstrated for a repeated measures design where the way in which social relationships and initial depression influence coping strategies and later depression are examined.

  2. A comparison of methods for the construction of confidence interval for relative risk in stratified matched-pair designs.

    PubMed

    Tang, Nian-Sheng; Li, Hui-Qiong; Tang, Man-Lai

    2010-01-15

    A stratified matched-pair study is often designed for adjusting a confounding effect or effect of different trails/centers/ groups in modern medical studies. The relative risk is one of the most frequently used indices in comparing efficiency of two treatments in clinical trials. In this paper, we propose seven confidence interval estimators for the common relative risk and three simultaneous confidence interval estimators for the relative risks in stratified matched-pair designs. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated with respect to their type I error rates, powers, coverage probabilities, and expected widths. Our empirical results show that the percentile bootstrap confidence interval and bootstrap-resampling-based Bonferroni simultaneous confidence interval behave satisfactorily for small to large sample sizes in the sense that (i) their empirical coverage probabilities can be well controlled around the pre-specified nominal confidence level with reasonably shorter confidence widths; and (ii) the empirical type I error rates of their associated test statistics are generally closer to the pre-specified nominal level with larger powers. They are hence recommended. Two real examples from clinical laboratory studies are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

  3. Dealing confidently with IRS, Part I: Preparing for IRS audits.

    PubMed

    Holub, S F; Walker, S R

    1978-10-01

    With the IRS apparently making health care institutions the focus of a nationwide audit emphasis, hospital administrators will want to prepare themselves for confident handling of audits. Four types of audit procedures are explained, suggestions are made for getting a hospital ready for an audit, and strategies are suggested for maintaining control over the audit's progress.

  4. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    PubMed

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce.

  5. Exact Confidence Intervals in the Presence of Interference

    PubMed Central

    Rigdon, Joseph; Hudgens, Michael G.

    2015-01-01

    For two-stage randomized experiments assuming partial interference, exact confidence intervals are proposed for treatment effects on a binary outcome. Empirical studies demonstrate the new intervals have narrower width than previously proposed exact intervals based on the Hoeffding inequality. PMID:26190877

  6. Confidence Intervals for Gamma-Family Measures of Ordinal Association

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Carol M.

    2007-01-01

    This research focused on confidence intervals (CIs) for 10 measures of monotonic association between ordinal variables. Standard errors (SEs) were also reviewed because more than 1 formula was available per index. For 5 indices, an element of the formula used to compute an SE is given that is apparently new. CIs computed with different SEs were…

  7. The Dark and Bloody Mystery: Building Basic Writers' Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sledd, Robert

    While the roots of students' fear of writing go deep, students fear most the surface of writing. They fear that a person's language indicates the state not only of the mind but of the soul--thus their writing can make them look stupid and morally depraved. This fear of error and lack of confidence prevent students from developing a command of the…

  8. Researchers Misunderstand Confidence Intervals and Standard Error Bars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belia, Sarah; Fidler, Fiona; Williams, Jennifer; Cumming, Geoff

    2005-01-01

    Little is known about researchers' understanding of confidence intervals (CIs) and standard error (SE) bars. Authors of journal articles in psychology, behavioral neuroscience, and medicine were invited to visit a Web site where they adjusted a figure until they judged 2 means, with error bars, to be just statistically significantly different (p…

  9. Utility of de-escalatory confidence-building measures

    SciTech Connect

    Nation, J.

    1989-06-01

    This paper evaluates the utility of specific confidence-building de-escalatory measures and pays special attention to the evaluation of measures which place restrictions on or establish procedures for strategic forces. Some measures appear more promising than others. Potentially useful confidence-building measures largely satisfy defined criteria and include the phased return of strategic nuclear forces to peacetime bases and operations, the termination of interference with communications and NTMs (National Technical Means) and the termination of civil defense preparations. Less-promising CBMs include the standing down of supplemental early warning systems, the establishment of SSBN keep-out zones, and decreases in bomber alert rates. Establishment of SSBN keep-out zones and reduction in bomber rates are difficult to verify, while the standing-down of early warning systems provides little benefit at potentially large costs. Particular confidence-building measures (CBMs) may be most useful in building superpower confidence at specific points in the crisis termination phase. For example, a decrease in strategic bomber alert rates may provide some decrease in perception of the likelihood of war, but its potential costs, particularly in increasing bomber vulnerability, may limit its utility and implementation to the final crisis stages when the risks of re-escalation and surprise attack are lower.

  10. Constructing Approximate Confidence Intervals for Parameters with Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheung, Mike W. -L.

    2009-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) for parameters are usually constructed based on the estimated standard errors. These are known as Wald CIs. This article argues that likelihood-based CIs (CIs based on likelihood ratio statistics) are often preferred to Wald CIs. It shows how the likelihood-based CIs and the Wald CIs for many statistics and psychometric…

  11. Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence: The ABC Scale Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2009-01-01

    The Academic Behavioural Confidence (ABC) scale has been shown to be valid and can be useful to teachers in understanding their students, enabling the design of more effective teaching sessions with large cohorts. However, some of the between-group differences have been smaller than expected, leading to the hypothesis that the ABC scale many not…

  12. Using Confidence as Feedback in Multi-Sized Learning Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hench, Thomas L.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the use of existing confidence and performance data to provide feedback by first demonstrating the data's fit to a simple linear model. The paper continues by showing how the model's use as a benchmark provides feedback to allow current or future students to infer either the difficulty or the degree of under or over…

  13. Highly Confident Wrong Answering--And How to Detect It.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yule, George

    1988-01-01

    A Confidence-rating scale accompanying answers on a listening test helps distinguish between learners who select answers based on effective self-monitoring and those whose answers are based on poor self-monitoring. The latter are more likely to do so subsequently as well. Test items and a rating scale are illustrated. (Author/LMO)

  14. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  15. Building and Encouraging Confidence and Creativity in Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Lynnette J.

    The focus of this study is an eight-week science enrichment mentorship program for elementary and middle school girls (ages 8 to 13) at Coleson Village, a public housing community, in an urban area of western Washington. The goal of the program was to build confidence and encourage creativity as the participants discovered themselves as competent…

  16. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  17. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  18. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  19. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  20. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  1. Hypercorrection of high confidence errors in lexical representations.

    PubMed

    Iwaki, Nobuyoshi; Matsushima, Hiroko; Kodaira, Kazumasa

    2013-08-01

    Memory errors associated with higher confidence are more likely to be corrected than errors made with lower confidence, a phenomenon called the hypercorrection effect. This study investigated whether the hypercorrection effect occurs with phonological information of lexical representations. In Experiment 1, 15 participants performed a Japanese Kanji word-reading task, in which the words had several possible pronunciations. In the initial task, participants were required to read aloud each word and indicate their confidence in their response; this was followed by receipt of visual feedback of the correct response. A hypercorrection effect was observed, indicating generality of this effect beyond previous observations in memories based upon semantic or episodic representations. This effect was replicated in Experiment 2, in which 40 participants performed the same task as in Experiment 1. When the participant's ratings of the practical value of the words were controlled, a partial correlation between confidence and likelihood of later correcting the initial mistaken response was reduced. This suggests that the hypercorrection effect may be partially caused by an individual's recognition of the practical value of reading the words correctly. PMID:24422352

  2. Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

    2013-01-01

    Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

  3. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  4. Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonett, Douglas G.

    2006-01-01

    Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

  5. Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Filippin, Antonio; Paccagnella, Marco

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the role played by self-confidence, modeled as beliefs about one's ability, in shaping task choices. We propose a model in which fully rational agents exploit all the available information to update their beliefs using Bayes' rule, eventually learning their true type. We show that when the learning process does not…

  6. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  7. Confidence bands for measured economically optimal nitrogen rates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    While numerous researchers have computed economically optimal N rate (EONR) values from measured yield – N rate data, nearly all have neglected to compute or estimate the statistical reliability of these EONR values. In this study, a simple method for computing EONR and its confidence bands is descr...

  8. Panel Discussion and the Development of Students' Self Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anwar, Khoirul

    2016-01-01

    This study is to analyze the use of panel discussion towards the development of students' self confidence in learning the content subject of qualitative research concept. The study uses mix-method in which questionnaire and interview are conducted at the class of qualitative research of the sixth semester consisting twenty students especially…

  9. On Pupils' Self-Confidence in Mathematics: Gender Comparisons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurmi, Anu; Hannula, Markku; Maijala, Hanna; Pehkonen, Erkki

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we will concentrate on pupils' self-confidence in mathematics, which belongs to pupils' mathematical beliefs in themselves, and beliefs on achievement in mathematics. Research described consists of a survey of more than 3000 fifth-graders and seventh-graders. Furthermore, 40 pupils participated in a qualitative follow-up study…

  10. Hypercorrection of high confidence errors in lexical representations.

    PubMed

    Iwaki, Nobuyoshi; Matsushima, Hiroko; Kodaira, Kazumasa

    2013-08-01

    Memory errors associated with higher confidence are more likely to be corrected than errors made with lower confidence, a phenomenon called the hypercorrection effect. This study investigated whether the hypercorrection effect occurs with phonological information of lexical representations. In Experiment 1, 15 participants performed a Japanese Kanji word-reading task, in which the words had several possible pronunciations. In the initial task, participants were required to read aloud each word and indicate their confidence in their response; this was followed by receipt of visual feedback of the correct response. A hypercorrection effect was observed, indicating generality of this effect beyond previous observations in memories based upon semantic or episodic representations. This effect was replicated in Experiment 2, in which 40 participants performed the same task as in Experiment 1. When the participant's ratings of the practical value of the words were controlled, a partial correlation between confidence and likelihood of later correcting the initial mistaken response was reduced. This suggests that the hypercorrection effect may be partially caused by an individual's recognition of the practical value of reading the words correctly.

  11. Multiple Confidence Estimates as Indices of Eyewitness Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauer, James D.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan

    2008-01-01

    Eyewitness identification decisions are vulnerable to various influences on witnesses' decision criteria that contribute to false identifications of innocent suspects and failures to choose perpetrators. An alternative procedure using confidence estimates to assess the degree of match between novel and previously viewed faces was investigated.…

  12. Building Confident Teachers: Preservice Physical Education Teachers' Efficacy Beliefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hand, Karen E.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding teachers' perceptions of their abilities across a variety of teaching strategies can provide insight for understanding teaching effectiveness and program review. Teaching efficacy reflects the degrees of confidence individuals have in their ability to successfully perform specific teaching proficiencies (Bandura, 1986). Additional…

  13. Does Students' Confidence in Their Ability in Mathematics Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parsons, Sarah; Croft, Tony; Harrison, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Research was conducted into first year engineering students' learning of mathematics in a university college during 2005-2007. The aims were to understand better students' confidences and explore which factors affected performance and how these were inter-related. Questionnaires were administered which posed questions regarding previous…

  14. Building Academic Confidence in English Language Learners in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vazquez, Alejandra

    2014-01-01

    Non-English speaking students lack the confidence and preparation to be verbally actively engaged in the classroom. Students may frequently display hesitation in learning to speak English, and may also lack a teacher's guidance in becoming proficient English speakers. The purpose of this research is to examine how teachers build academic…

  15. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  16. Expanding Horizons--Into the Future with Confidence!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Volk, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    Gifted students often show a deep interest in and profound concern for the complex issues of society. Given the leadership potential of these students and their likely responsibility for solving future social problems, they need to develop this awareness and also a sense of confidence in dealing with future issues. The Future Problem Solving…

  17. Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

    2006-01-01

    Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population effect size…

  18. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  19. Knowledge Surveys in General Chemistry: Confidence, Overconfidence, and Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Priscilla; Volckmann, David

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge surveys have been used in a number of fields to assess changes in students' understanding of their own learning and to assist students in review. This study compares metacognitive confidence ratings of students faced with problems on the surveys with their actual knowledge as shown on the final exams in two courses of general chemistry…

  20. Locus of Control and Perceived Confidence in Problem Solving Abilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Barry L.; Kilmann, Peter R.

    1975-01-01

    Butterfield found that internal Ss tended to make more constructive responses to frustration-type situations than did extrenal Ss. Therefore, this study predicted that internal Ss would rate themselves as more confident with regard to problem-solving abilities than would external Ss. (Author)

  1. Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oort, Frans J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

  2. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL... during the transition period; (4) Joint training exercises; and (5) Observed inspections. (c) During...

  3. 42 CFR 431.972 - Claims sampling procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS STATE ORGANIZATION AND GENERAL ADMINISTRATION Requirements for...-level error rate within a 3 percent precision level at 95 percent confidence interval for the claims... cycles following the base year: (i) CMS considers the error rate from the State's previous PERM cycle...

  4. Improving maternal confidence in neonatal care through a checklist intervention.

    PubMed

    Radenkovic, Dina; Kotecha, Shrinal; Patel, Shreena; Lakhani, Anjali; Reimann-Dubbers, Katharina; Shah, Shreya; Jafree, Daniyal; Mitrasinovic, Stefan; Whitten, Melissa

    2016-01-01

    Previous qualitative studies suggest a lack of maternal confidence in care of their newborn child upon discharge into the community. This observation was supported by discussion with healthcare professionals and mothers at University College London Hospital (UCLH), highlighting specific areas of concern, in particular identifying and managing common neonatal presentations. The aim of this study was to design and introduce a checklist, addressing concerns, to increase maternal confidence in care of their newborn child. Based on market research, an 8-question checklist was designed, assessing maternal confidence in: feeding, jaundice, nappy care, rashes and dry skin, umbilical cord care, choking, bowel movements, and vomiting. Mothers were assessed as per the checklist, and received a score representative of their confidence in neonatal care. Mothers were followed up with a telephone call, and were assessed after a 7-day-period. Checklist scores before as compared to after the follow-up period were analysed. This process was repeated for three study cycles, with the placement of information posters on the ward prior to the second study cycle, and the stapling of the checklist to the mother's personal child health record (PCHR) prior to the third study cycle. A total of 99 mothers on the Maternity Care Unit at UCLH were enrolled in the study, and 92 were contactable after a 7-day period. During all study cycles, a significant increase in median checklist score was observed after, as compared to before, the 7-day follow up period (p < 0.001). The median difference in checklist score from baseline was greatest for the third cycle. These results suggest that introduction of a simple checklist can be successfully utilised to improve confidence of mothers in being able to care for their newborn child. Further investigation is indicated, but this intervention has the potential for routine application in postnatal care. PMID:27335642

  5. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    PubMed Central

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  6. A national radiation oncology medical student clerkship survey: Didactic curricular components increase confidence in clinical competency

    PubMed Central

    Jagadeesan, Vikrant S.; Raleigh, David R.; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J.; Golden, Daniel W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose/Objectives Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete one or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials An anonymous, internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012–2013 academic year. The survey was composed of three main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results The survey response rate was 37% (70/188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. 27% of respondents (19/70) completed at least one clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent’s confidence to function as a first- year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank-sum p = 0.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman’s rho p = 0.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman’s rho p = 0.43). Conclusions Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation

  7. A National Radiation Oncology Medical Student Clerkship Survey: Didactic Curricular Components Increase Confidence in Clinical Competency

    SciTech Connect

    Jagadeesan, Vikrant S.; Raleigh, David R.; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J.; Golden, Daniel W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete 1 or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials: An anonymous, Internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012-2013 academic year. The survey was composed of 3 main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results: The survey response rate was 37% (70 of 188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. Of the respondents, 27% (19 of 70) completed at least 1 clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent's confidence to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank–sum P=.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman ρ P=.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman ρ P=.43). Conclusions: Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation oncology resident. These results

  8. Cognitive Abilities, Monitoring Confidence, and Control Thresholds Explain Individual Differences in Heuristics and Biases

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Simon A.; Kleitman, Sabina; Howie, Pauline; Stankov, Lazar

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate whether individual differences in performance on heuristic and biases tasks can be explained by cognitive abilities, monitoring confidence, and control thresholds. Current theories explain individual differences in these tasks by the ability to detect errors and override automatic but biased judgments, and deliberative cognitive abilities that help to construct the correct response. Here we retain cognitive abilities but disentangle error detection, proposing that lower monitoring confidence and higher control thresholds promote error checking. Participants (N = 250) completed tasks assessing their fluid reasoning abilities, stable monitoring confidence levels, and the control threshold they impose on their decisions. They also completed seven typical heuristic and biases tasks such as the cognitive reflection test and Resistance to Framing. Using structural equation modeling, we found that individuals with higher reasoning abilities, lower monitoring confidence, and higher control threshold performed significantly and, at times, substantially better on the heuristic and biases tasks. Individuals with higher control thresholds also showed lower preferences for risky alternatives in a gambling task. Furthermore, residual correlations among the heuristic and biases tasks were reduced to null, indicating that cognitive abilities, monitoring confidence, and control thresholds accounted for their shared variance. Implications include the proposal that the capacity to detect errors does not differ between individuals. Rather, individuals might adopt varied strategies that promote error checking to different degrees, regardless of whether they have made a mistake or not. The results support growing evidence that decision-making involves cognitive abilities that construct actions and monitoring and control processes that manage their initiation. PMID:27790170

  9. THE ADOLESCENT MEASURE OF CONFIDENCE AND MUSCULOSKELETAL PERFORMANCE (AMCAMP): DEVELOPMENT AND INITIAL VALIDATION

    PubMed Central

    May, Keith H.; Edwards, Michael C.; Goldstein, Marc S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Although the relationship of self-efficacy to sports performance is well established, little attention has been paid to self-efficacy in the movements or actions that are required to perform daily activities and prepare the individual to resume sports participation following an injury and associated period of rehabilitation. There are no instruments to measure self-confidence in movement validated in an adolescent population. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report on the development of the AMCaMP, a self-report measure of confidence in movement and provide some initial evidence to support its use as a measure of confidence in movement. Methods The AMCaMP was adapted from OPTIMAL, a self-report instrument that measures confidence in movement, which had been previously designed and validated in an adult population. Data were collected from 1,115 adolescent athletes from 12 outpatient physical therapy clinics in a single healthcare system. Results Exploratory factor analysis of the 22 items of the AMCaMP using a test sample revealed a three factor structure (trunk, lower body, upper body). Confirmatory factor analysis using a validation sample demonstrated a similar model fit with the data. Reliability of scores on each of three clusters of items identified by factor analysis was assessed with coefficient alpha (range = 0.82 to 0.94), Standard Error of Measurement (1.38 to 2.74), and Minimum Detectable Change (3.83 to 7.6). Conclusions AMCaMP has acceptable psychometric properties for use in adolescents (ages 11 to 18) as a patient-centric outcome measure of confidence in movement abilities after rehabilitation. Level of Evidence IV PMID:27757282

  10. Confidence in dental care and public health competency during rural practice among new dental graduates in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    Wisaijohn, Thunthita; Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong; Topothai, Thitikorn; Seneerattanaprayul, Parinda; Pudpong, Nareerut; Putthasri, Weerasak

    2015-01-01

    Objective The dental profession has played an important role in the development of the health system in Thailand. However, it is not known if dental graduates’ standards of knowledge, skills, and capabilities are fulfilling the health needs of Thais. This study aimed to assess the level of confidence in dental public health competency among final-year dental students who graduated in 2013. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 571 new dental graduates who participated in an official meeting arranged by the Ministry of Public Health in 2013. Self-administered questionnaires were used for collecting data on their confidence levels in selected public-health competencies. Of the total graduates, 72.5% anonymously responded to the questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics, factor analysis, and stepwise regression were applied for data analysis. Results The majority of respondents expressed confidence in their ability to care for patients, but less confidence in public-health and administration competencies. The results also show that there was no significant association between demographic and educational profiles of respondents and confidence in their clinical competency. However, significantly more students who graduated from schools located outside Bangkok and vicinity rated themselves as competent in public health (coefficient = 0.333, P=0.021). Conclusion New dentists who graduated from dental schools in Bangkok and vicinity had lower levels of confidence in their public-health competencies compared to those who graduated from dental schools outside Bangkok. Thus, working in rural areas after graduation could help new dentists gain more experience in rural practice, leading to higher confidence levels. The findings from this study could contribute to the improvement of the dental curriculum and contract-bonding policy to work in rural areas. PMID:25565912

  11. The Development and Validation of a Tool to Measure Self-Confidence and Anxiety in Nursing Students While Making Clinical Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Krista Alaine

    2011-01-01

    Clinical decision making (CDM) is a cornerstone skill for nurses. Self-confidence and anxiety are two affective influences that impact the learning and adeptness of CDM. Currently, no instruments exist that measure perceived self-confidence and anxiety level of undergraduate nursing students related to CDM. The purpose of this research was to…

  12. Students' intentions towards studying science at upper-secondary school: the differential effects of under-confidence and over-confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Understanding students' intentions to study science at upper-secondary school, at university, and to follow science careers continues as a central concern for international science education. Prior research has highlighted that students' science confidence has been associated with their intentions to study science further, although under-confidence and over-confidence (lower or higher confidence than expected, given someone's attainment) have not been considered in detail. Accordingly, this study explored whether under-confident, accurately evaluating, and over-confident students expressed different attitudes towards their science education, and explored how under-confidence and over-confidence might influence students' science intentions. The questionnaire responses of 1523 students from 12 secondary schools in England were considered through analysis of variance and predictive modelling. Under-confident students expressed consistently lower science attitudes than accurately evaluating and over-confident students, despite reporting the same science grades as accurately evaluating students. Students' intentions to study science were predicted by different factors in different ways, depending on whether the students were under-confident, accurate, or over-confident. For accurately evaluating and over-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-efficacy beliefs (their confidence in their expected future science attainment). For under-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-concept beliefs (their confidence in currently 'doing well' or 'being good' at science). Many other differences were also apparent. Fundamentally, under-confidence may be detrimental not simply through associating with lower attitudes, but through students considering their choices in different ways. Under-confidence may accordingly require attention to help ensure that students' future choices are not unnecessarily constrained.

  13. The addition of high magnifying endoscopy improves rates of high confidence optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps

    PubMed Central

    Iwatate, Mineo; Sano, Yasushi; Hattori, Santa; Sano, Wataru; Hasuike, Noriaki; Ikumoto, Taro; Kotaka, Masahito; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Hewett, David G.; Soetikno, Roy; Kaltenbach, Tonya; Fujimori, Takahiro

    2015-01-01

    Background and study aims: The real-time optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps with high confidence predictions can achieve high levels of accuracy. Increasing the rates of high confidence optical diagnosis can improve the clinical application of real-time optical diagnosis in routine practice. The primary aim of this prospective study was to evaluate whether high magnifying endoscopy improves the rates of high confidence narrow-band imaging (NBI) – based optical diagnosis for differentiating between neoplastic and non-neoplastic colorectal lesions according to the NBI international colorectal endoscopic (NICE) classification. Patients and methods: Consecutive adult patients undergoing colonoscopy with a high magnifying (maximum, × 80) colonoscope between April and August 2012 were recruited. The optical diagnosis for each polyp was evaluated during colonoscopy in two consecutive stages by the same endoscopist, who first used NBI with non-magnifying endoscopy (NBI-NME), then NBI with magnifying endoscopy (NBI-ME). A level of confidence was assigned to each prediction. Results: The analysis included 124 patients (mean age, 56.4 years; male-to-female ratio, 72:52) with 248 polyps smaller than 10 mm. Of the 248 polyps, 210 were 1 to 5 mm in size and 38 were 6 to 9 mm in size; 77 polyps were hyperplastic, 4 were sessile serrated adenomas/polyps, 160 were low grade adenomas, 5 were high grade adenomas, and 2 were deep submucosal invasive carcinomas. The rate of high confidence optical diagnosis when NBI-ME was used was significantly higher than the rate when NBI-NME was used for diminutive (1 – 5 mm) polyps (92.9 % vs 79.5 %, P < 0.001) and for small (6 – 9 mm) polyps (94.7 % vs 84.2 %, P = 0.048). Conclusion: High magnifying endoscopy significantly improved the rates of high confidence NBI-based optical diagnosis of diminutive and small colorectal polyps. Study registration: UMIN 000007608 PMID:26135657

  14. Confidence and psychosis: a neuro-computational account of contingency learning disruption by NMDA blockade.

    PubMed

    Vinckier, F; Gaillard, R; Palminteri, S; Rigoux, L; Salvador, A; Fornito, A; Adapa, R; Krebs, M O; Pessiglione, M; Fletcher, P C

    2016-07-01

    A state of pathological uncertainty about environmental regularities might represent a key step in the pathway to psychotic illness. Early psychosis can be investigated in healthy volunteers under ketamine, an NMDA receptor antagonist. Here, we explored the effects of ketamine on contingency learning using a placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover design. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants performed an instrumental learning task, in which cue-outcome contingencies were probabilistic and reversed between blocks. Bayesian model comparison indicated that in such an unstable environment, reinforcement learning parameters are downregulated depending on confidence level, an adaptive mechanism that was specifically disrupted by ketamine administration. Drug effects were underpinned by altered neural activity in a fronto-parietal network, which reflected the confidence-based shift to exploitation of learned contingencies. Our findings suggest that an early characteristic of psychosis lies in a persistent doubt that undermines the stabilization of behavioral policy resulting in a failure to exploit regularities in the environment.

  15. Feedback about more accurate versus less accurate trials: differential effects on self-confidence and activation.

    PubMed

    Badami, Rokhsareh; VaezMousavi, Mohammad; Wulf, Gabriele; Namazizadeh, Mahdi

    2012-06-01

    One purpose of the present study was to examine whether self-confidence or anxiety would be differentially affected byfeedback from more accurate rather than less accurate trials. The second purpose was to determine whether arousal variations (activation) would predict performance. On day 1, participants performed a golf putting task under one of two conditions: one group received feedback on the most accurate trials, whereas another group received feedback on the least accurate trials. On day 2, participants completed an anxiety questionnaire and performed a retention test. Shin conductance level, as a measure of arousal, was determined. The results indicated that feedback about more accurate trials resulted in more effective learning as well as increased self-confidence. Also, activation was a predictor of performance. PMID:22808705

  16. Standardized Discharge Information After Short-Stay Hysterectomy and Relationships With Self-Care Confidence, Perceived Recovery, and Satisfaction.

    PubMed

    Lynch, Kate M; LeFort, Sandra M

    2016-01-01

    We report on the development and investigation of standardized, nurse-delivered discharge information to women after same-day hysterectomy, including the relationships among discharge information, self-care confidence, perceived recovery, and satisfaction. Fifty-one women reported high levels of self-care confidence and various levels of perceived recovery 48 to 72 hours after surgery. They were satisfied to highly satisfied with their experiences and with the discharge information provided. The important role of standardized patient discharge information is highlighted.

  17. Eyewitness recall: Regulation of grain size and the role of confidence.

    PubMed

    Weber, Nathan; Brewer, Neil

    2008-03-01

    Eyewitness testimony plays a critical role in Western legal systems. Three experiments extended M. Goldsmith, A. Koriat, and A. Weinberg-Eliezer's (2002) framework of the regulation of grain size (precision vs. coarseness) of memory reports to eyewitness memory. In 2 experiments, the grain size of responses had a large impact on memory accuracy. Further, participants achieved a compromise between the accuracy and informativeness of their testimony by volunteering precise answers only when likely to be correct. The level of detail reported was strongly, positively related to confidence in the accuracy of the response. This highlights the importance of considering the level of detail, not just the accuracy, of eyewitness testimony. PMID:18377166

  18. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology.

    PubMed

    Earp, Brian D; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt "fails"-does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should "failed" replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing "failed" replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings.

  19. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    PubMed Central

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  20. Avoiding nuclear war, Confidence-building measures for crisis stability

    SciTech Connect

    Borawski, J.; Goodby, J.E.

    1986-01-01

    Confidence-building measures (CBMs) may offer one way out of the contemporary arms control morass. Instead of focusing on limiting the number and types of weaponry, CBMs are designed to control how, when, where, and why military activities are employed. By clarifying military intentions and regulating the operations of military forces in times of both crisis and calm, CBMs can help diminish the opportunities for war arising from surprise attack or from miscalculation, accident, or failure of communication. This volume assembles CBM experts from government and academia to assess the utility of CBMs in a wide variety of areas. CONTENTS: Foreword; Prologue; Introduction; The World of CBMs; The Accidents Measures Agreement; Avoiding Incidents at Sea; The Stockholm CDE Conference; CBMs in the UN Setting; Soviet Views of CBMs; Beyond the Hotline: Controlling a Nuclear Crisis; CBMs for Stabilizing the Strategic Nuclear Competition; Risk Reduction and Crisis Prevention; An East-West Center for Military Cooperation; The Limits of Confidence.

  1. An Overview of Space Exploration Simulation (Basis of Confidence) Documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bray, Alleen; Hale, Joseph P.

    2006-01-01

    Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations by providing critical information that supports key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision making. In this presentation we will describe how development of simulation capability documentation will be used to form a Basis of Confidence (Basis of Confidence) for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) M&S. The process by which BOC documentation is developed will be addressed, as well as the structure and critical concepts that are essential for establishing credibility of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) legacy M&S. We will illustrate the significance of BOC documentation in supporting decision makers and Accreditation Authorities in M&S risk management.

  2. Confidence judgments in children's and adults' event recall and suggestibility.

    PubMed

    Roebers, Claudia M

    2002-11-01

    The present work investigated the role of children's and adults' metacognitive monitoring and control processes for unbiased event recall tasks and for suggestibility. Three studies were conducted in which children and adults indicated their degree of confidence that their answers were correct after (Study 1) and before (Study 2) answering either unbiased or misleading questions or (Study 3) forced-choice recognition questions. There was a strong tendency for overestimation of confidence regardless of age and question format. However, children did not lack the principal metacognitive competencies when these questions were asked in a neutral interview. Under misleading questioning, in contrast, children's monitoring skills were seriously impaired. Within each age group, better metacognitive differentiation was positively associated with recall accuracy in the suggestive interview.

  3. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    PubMed

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  4. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    PubMed

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined. PMID:25691289

  5. Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: the underconfidence phenomenon.

    PubMed

    Björkman, M; Juslin, P; Winman, A

    1993-07-01

    This paper documents a very pervasive underconfidence bias in the area of sensory discrimination. In order to account for this phenomenon, a subjective distance theory of confidence in sensory discrimination is proposed. This theory, based on the law of comparative judgment and the assumption of confidence as an increasing function of the perceived distance between stimuli, predicts underconfidence--that is, that people should perform better than they express in their confidence assessments. Due to the fixed sensitivity of the sensory system, this underconfidence bias is practically impossible to avoid. The results of Experiment 1 confirmed the prediction of underconfidence with the help of present-day calibration methods and indicated a good quantitative fit of the theory. The results of Experiment 2 showed that prolonged experience of outcome feedback (160 trials) had no effect on underconfidence. It is concluded that the subjective distance theory provides a better explanation of the underconfidence phenomenon than do previous accounts in terms of subconscious processes. PMID:8351190

  6. Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times

    PubMed Central

    Kahana, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Classification of stimuli into categories (such as ‘old’ and ‘new’ in tests of recognition memory or ‘present’ versus ‘absent’ in signal detection tasks) requires the mapping of internal signals to discrete responses. Introspective judgements about a given choice response are regularly employed in research, legal and clinical settings in an effort to measure the signal that is thought to be the basis of the classification decision. Correlations between introspective judgements and task performance suggest that such ratings often do convey information about internal states that are relevant for a given task, but well-known limitations of introspection call the fidelity of this information into question. We investigated to what extent response times can reveal information usually assessed with explicit confidence ratings. We quantitatively compared response times to confidence ratings in their ability to qualify recognition memory decisions and found convergent results suggesting that much of the information from confidence ratings can be obtained from response times. PMID:27152209

  7. Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Stedinger, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient "weighting" procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed-form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA-based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood-quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25- to 100-year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

  8. Effects of the Emergency Trauma Training Course on the confidence of final-year medical students dealing with trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Lin, Hsing-Lin; Chen, Chao-Wen; Lee, Wei-Che; Kuo, Liang-Chi; Cheng, Yuan-Chia; Lin, Yen-Ko; Lin, Jiun-Nong; Chan, Hon-Man

    2009-01-01

    Trauma is an important issue that has been neglected in the training of medical students. This study evaluated the effects of the Emergency Trauma Training Course (ETTC), after completion of standard medical training, on seventh-year medical students. The ETTC was designed in Taiwan by the Taiwan Society of Emergency Medicine to train physicians and registered nurses who care for trauma patients in the emergency department (ED). We implemented the course for our medical students' internship. One hundred and fifty-one participants were divided into three groups: Group A included 36 medical students before they entered their internship in hospital; Group B included 41 medical students who had received 6 months of internship training in hospital; and Group C included 74 ED nurses. Group C was used to test Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the questionnaire. After the training course, the participants had a final examination and filled out a questionnaire about the training course and their levels of self-confidence. There were no differences in scores between the medical students in Groups A and B (p = 0.064). Using repeated measures analysis of variance, we found that confidence before training was low, with no difference between Groups A and B. Confidence improved after training, but there was still no significant difference between the groups (p = 0.875). However, there were significant differences between confidence levels before and after the training course (p < 0.001). Therefore, although inhospital training for 6 months failed to increase confidence, the confidence of final year medical students after completion of their training was improved by the ETTC. This indicates that the ETTC could increase the confidence of participants. This is the first evaluation of the implementation of the ETTC for final-year medical students in Taiwan. Based on our results, we highly recommend that this training course be taught to final-year medical students before they practice

  9. Optical variability of X-ray-selected QSOs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pica, Andrew J.; Webb, James R.; Smith, Alex G.; Leacock, Robert J.; Bitran, Mauricio

    1987-08-01

    Photometric data for ten X-ray-selected quasistellar objects have been obtained from archival records of the Rosemary Hill Observatory. Reliable magnitudes were obtained for seven of the ten sources and six displayed optical variations significant at the 95 percent confidence level or greater. One source appeared to exhibit optically violent behavior. Light curves and photographic magnitudes are presented and discussed.

  10. Optical variability of X-ray-selected QSOs

    SciTech Connect

    Pica, A.J.; Webb, J.R.; Smith, A.G.; Leacock, R.J.; Bitran, M.

    1987-08-01

    Photometric data for ten X-ray-selected quasistellar objects have been obtained from archival records of the Rosemary Hill Observatory. Reliable magnitudes were obtained for seven of the ten sources and six displayed optical variations significant at the 95 percent confidence level or greater. One source appeared to exhibit optically violent behavior. Light curves and photographic magnitudes are presented and discussed. 22 references.

  11. A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu, L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

    2006-01-01

    In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Ovenvrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter error are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

  12. Line segment confidence region-based string matching method for map conflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huh, Yong; Yang, Sungchul; Ga, Chillo; Yu, Kiyun; Shi, Wenzhong

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, a method to detect corresponding point pairs between polygon object pairs with a string matching method based on a confidence region model of a line segment is proposed. The optimal point edit sequence to convert the contour of a target object into that of a reference object was found by the string matching method which minimizes its total error cost, and the corresponding point pairs were derived from the edit sequence. Because a significant amount of apparent positional discrepancies between corresponding objects are caused by spatial uncertainty and their confidence region models of line segments are therefore used in the above matching process, the proposed method obtained a high F-measure for finding matching pairs. We applied this method for built-up area polygon objects in a cadastral map and a topographical map. Regardless of their different mapping and representation rules and spatial uncertainties, the proposed method with a confidence level at 0.95 showed a matching result with an F-measure of 0.894.

  13. Augmenting Chinese hamster genome assembly by identifying regions of high confidence.

    PubMed

    Vishwanathan, Nandita; Bandyopadhyay, Arpan A; Fu, Hsu-Yuan; Sharma, Mohit; Johnson, Kathryn C; Mudge, Joann; Ramaraj, Thiruvarangan; Onsongo, Getiria; Silverstein, Kevin A T; Jacob, Nitya M; Le, Huong; Karypis, George; Hu, Wei-Shou

    2016-09-01

    Chinese hamster Ovary (CHO) cell lines are the dominant industrial workhorses for therapeutic recombinant protein production. The availability of genome sequence of Chinese hamster and CHO cells will spur further genome and RNA sequencing of producing cell lines. However, the mammalian genomes assembled using shot-gun sequencing data still contain regions of uncertain quality due to assembly errors. Identifying high confidence regions in the assembled genome will facilitate its use for cell engineering and genome engineering. We assembled two independent drafts of Chinese hamster genome by de novo assembly from shotgun sequencing reads and by re-scaffolding and gap-filling the draft genome from NCBI for improved scaffold lengths and gap fractions. We then used the two independent assemblies to identify high confidence regions using two different approaches. First, the two independent assemblies were compared at the sequence level to identify their consensus regions as "high confidence regions" which accounts for at least 78 % of the assembled genome. Further, a genome wide comparison of the Chinese hamster scaffolds with mouse chromosomes revealed scaffolds with large blocks of collinearity, which were also compiled as high-quality scaffolds. Genome scale collinearity was complemented with EST based synteny which also revealed conserved gene order compared to mouse. As cell line sequencing becomes more commonly practiced, the approaches reported here are useful for assessing the quality of assembly and potentially facilitate the engineering of cell lines. PMID:27374913

  14. miRBase: annotating high confidence microRNAs using deep sequencing data.

    PubMed

    Kozomara, Ana; Griffiths-Jones, Sam

    2014-01-01

    We describe an update of the miRBase database (http://www.mirbase.org/), the primary microRNA sequence repository. The latest miRBase release (v20, June 2013) contains 24 521 microRNA loci from 206 species, processed to produce 30 424 mature microRNA products. The rate of deposition of novel microRNAs and the number of researchers involved in their discovery continue to increase, driven largely by small RNA deep sequencing experiments. In the face of these increases, and a range of microRNA annotation methods and criteria, maintaining the quality of the microRNA sequence data set is a significant challenge. Here, we describe recent developments of the miRBase database to address this issue. In particular, we describe the collation and use of deep sequencing data sets to assign levels of confidence to miRBase entries. We now provide a high confidence subset of miRBase entries, based on the pattern of mapped reads. The high confidence microRNA data set is available alongside the complete microRNA collection at http://www.mirbase.org/. We also describe embedding microRNA-specific Wikipedia pages on the miRBase website to encourage the microRNA community to contribute and share textual and functional information. PMID:24275495

  15. A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

    2007-01-01

    In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

  16. On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

    2007-01-01

    A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

  17. Basic Confidence Predictors of Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paulsen, Alisa M.; Betz, Nancy E.

    2004-01-01

    The extent to which Basic Confidence Scales predicted career decision-making self-efficacy was studied in a sample of 627 undergraduate students. Six confidence variables accounted for 49% of the variance in career decision-making self-efficacy. Leadership confidence was the most important, but confidence in science, mathematics, writing, using…

  18. Professional values, self-esteem, and ethical confidence of baccalaureate nursing students.

    PubMed

    Iacobucci, Trisha A; Daly, Barbara J; Lindell, Debbie; Griffin, Mary Quinn

    2013-06-01

    Professional identity and competent ethical behaviors of nursing students are commonly developed through curricular inclusion of professional nursing values education. Despite the enactment of this approach, nursing students continue to express difficulty in managing ethical conflicts encountered in their practice. This descriptive correlational study explores the relationships between professional nursing values, self-esteem, and ethical decision making among senior baccalaureate nursing students. A convenience sample of 47 senior nursing students from the United States were surveyed for their level of internalized professional nursing values (Revised Professional Nursing Values Scale), level of self-esteem (Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale), and perceived level of confidence in ethical decision making. A significant positive relationship (p < 0.05) was found between nursing students' professional nursing values and levels of self-esteem. The results of this study can be useful to nursing educators whose efforts are focused on promoting professional identity development and competent ethical behaviors of future nurses.

  19. Establishing Quantitative Within-Subject Confidence Limits For Clinical Stereoroentgenographs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korn, Edward L.; Baumrind, Sheldon; Chafetz, Neil; Curry, Sean; Moffitt, Francis

    1983-07-01

    It is now quite clear that under ideal conditions, discrete points can be located on x-ray films with standard deviations of less than 50 i. However, under routine clinical conditions, such considerations as individual variation in anatomy, movement of the subject between exposures, and variations in image quality combine to produce considerable reductions in the confidence which can be placed in quantitative assessments made from stereoroentgenographic films. This paper discusses some considerations involved in designing mathematical models in such a way as to optimize the use of imperfect data in answering specific clinical questions.

  20. Confidence about vaccines in the United States: understanding parents' perceptions.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Allison; Lavail, Katherine; Nowak, Glen; Basket, Michelle; Landry, Sarah

    2011-06-01

    The United States has made tremendous progress in using vaccines to prevent serious, often infectious, diseases. But concerns about such issues as vaccines' safety and the increasing complexity of immunization schedules have fostered doubts about the necessity of vaccinations. We investigated parents' confidence in childhood vaccines by reviewing recent survey data. We found that most parents--even those whose children receive all of the recommended vaccines--have questions, concerns, or misperceptions about them. We suggest ways to give parents the information they need and to keep the US national vaccination program a success.

  1. A recipe for the construction of confidence limits

    SciTech Connect

    Iain A Bertram et al.

    2000-04-12

    In this note, the authors present the recipe recommended by the Search Limits Committee for the construction of confidence intervals for the use of D0 collaboration. In another note, currently in preparation, they present the rationale for this recipe, a critique of the current literature on this topic, and several examples of the use of the method. This note is intended to fill the need of the collaboration to have a reference available until the more complete note is finished. Section 2 introduces the notation used in this note, and Section 3 contains the suggested recipe.

  2. Role of Seismic Calibration as a Confidence-Building Measure

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, L A; Zucca, J JW S; Phillips, W S

    2000-07-20

    Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) address the political goal of alleviating compliance concerns raised by chemical explosions and the technical goal of calibrating the International Monitoring System (IMS; ref. Article IV, E, and Part 111 of the Protocol to the treaty). The term ''calibration'' only appears in the treaty associated with CBMs and On-Site Inspection and has different meanings in each case. This difference can be illustrated through the use of a simple, conceptual equation:

  3. Auditing the TK and TPACK Confidence of Pre-Service Teachers: Are They Ready for the Profession?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jamieson-Proctor, Romina; Finger, Glenn; Albion, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Teacher education graduates need appropriate levels of confidence and capabilities in relation to technological knowledge (TK) as a basis for having technological pedagogical content knowledge (TPACK) to meet the challenges of learning and teaching in the 21st century. However, it should not be assumed that tomorrow's teachers enter the profession…

  4. The Impact of a Place-Based Professional Development Program on Teachers' Confidence, Attitudes, and Classroom Practices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meichtry, Yvonne; Smith, Jeffrey

    2007-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to determine the impact of a professional development program on the confidence levels and classroom practices of the participants and their attitudes toward the environment. The program had immersed teachers in a watershed study that took them from the headwaters of a 310-mile river to its confluence with the Ohio…

  5. Speech-Language Pathologists' Knowledge of Genetics: Perceived Confidence, Attitudes, Knowledge Acquisition and Practice-Based Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tramontana, G. Michael; Blood, Ingrid M.; Blood, Gordon W.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine (a) the general knowledge bases demonstrated by school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the area of genetics, (b) the confidence levels of SLPs in providing services to children and their families with genetic disorders/syndromes, (c) the attitudes of SLPs regarding genetics and communication…

  6. The reliability of lumbar motion palpation using continuous analysis and confidence ratings: choosing a relevant index of agreement

    PubMed Central

    Cooperstein, Robert; Young, Morgan

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Most studies show motion palpation unreliable. This study’s primary objective was assessing its reliability using a continuous measure methods, most-fixated level paradigm, stratified by examiners’ confidence; and the secondary objective was comparing various indices of examiner agreement. Methods: Thirty-four minimally symptomatic participants were palpated in side posture by two experienced examiners. Interexaminer differences in identifying the most-fixated level and degree of examiner confidence were recorded. Indices of agreement were: Intraclass correlation coefficient, Mean and Median Examiner Absolute Examiner Differences, Root-Mean-Square Error and Bland-Altman Limits of Agreement. Results: Three of four reliability indices (excluding intraclass correlation) suggested on average examiners agreed on the most fixated motion segment, and agreement increased with confidence. Statistical measures of data dispersion were low. The analyses of subgroups were “fragile” due to small sample size. Discussion: Although subject homogeneity lowered ICC levels, the other reliability measures were not similarly impacted. Continuous measures statistical analysis demonstrates examiner agreement in situations where discrete analysis with kappa may not. Conclusion: Continuous analysis for the lumbar most-fixated level is reliable. Future studies will need a larger sample size to properly analyze subgroups based on examiner confidence. PMID:27385834

  7. Study of the self-confidence of midwifery graduates from Mashhad College of nursing and midwifery in fulfilling clinical skills

    PubMed Central

    Mirzakhani, Kobra; Shorab, Nahid Jahani

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Self-confidence is one of the main components of clinical competence, and it is considered to be an important indicator of ability and competence. The aim of this study was to determine the confidence of midwifery graduates from Mashhad College of nursing and midwifery in fulfilling the required clinical skills. Methods: The study was in the form of a cross-sectional study, and it was performed in 2011 on 50 midwifery graduates who had been working in health centers in Mashhad for six months to three years providing midwifery services, as well as on their supervisors having a minimum of 6 months experiences of responsibility in these centers. The research tools included self-assessment tools of self-confidence in midwives and assessment tools of self-confidence in midwifery graduates in fulfilling clinical skills performed by the supervisors. The validity of the tools was confirmed by face validity and content validity, and the reliability of the test was confirmed by test-retest (r = 0.82). After the data were extracted and encoded, they were analyzed using SPSS software version 11.5, descriptive statistics, the t-test, and Pearson’s test. Results: Among the midwifery graduates, 84.57% of them had confidence in the area of management of low-risk situations, and 55.51% had confidence in their ability to manage high-risk situations. The self-confidence levels of graduates in fulfilling clinical skills in the management of low-risk and high-risk situations were significantly different (P < 0.05). Clinical skills had a positive correlation with self-confidence (P < 0.05, r = 0.85). Conclusion: Improvements were needed in the self-confidence of graduates in fulfilling clinical skills in the management of high-risk situations. In order to achieve such improvement, it is necessary to identify and use methods of increasing graduates’ self-confidence in the learning environment by developing an enhanced midwifery curriculum and improved teaching methods

  8. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z=(z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y (sup 0) = (y (sub 1) (sup 0), ..., y (sub D (sup 0)), using full or partial knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y (sup 0). The data space Y containing y(sup 0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x, Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. Confidence set inference is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface.

  9. Nursing students' confidence in medication calculations predicts math exam performance.

    PubMed

    Andrew, Sharon; Salamonson, Yenna; Halcomb, Elizabeth J

    2009-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties, including predictive validity, of the newly-developed nursing self-efficacy for mathematics (NSE-Math). The NSE-Math is a 12 item scale that comprises items related to mathematic and arithmetic concepts underpinning medication calculations. The NSE-Math instrument was administered to second year Bachelor of Nursing students enrolled in a nursing practice subject. Students' academic results for a compulsory medication calculation examination for this subject were collected. One-hundred and twelve students (73%) completed both the NSE-Math instrument and the drug calculation assessment task. The NSE-Math demonstrated two factors 'Confidence in application of mathematic concepts to nursing practice' and 'Confidence in arithmetic concepts' with 63.5% of variance explained. Cronbach alpha for the scale was 0.90. The NSE-Math demonstrated predictive validity with the medication calculation examination results (p=0.009). Psychometric testing suggests the NSE-Math is a valid measure of mathematics self-efficacy of second year nursing students.

  10. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

    PubMed Central

    Bebu, Ionut; Luta, George; Mathew, Thomas; Agan, Brian K.

    2016-01-01

    For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates. PMID:27322305

  11. On Efficient Confidence Intervals for the Log-Normal Mean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chami, Peter; Antoine, Robin; Sahai, Ashok

    Data obtained in biomedical research is often skewed. Examples include the incubation period of diseases like HIV/AIDS and the survival times of cancer patients. Such data, especially when they are positive and skewed, is often modeled by the log-normal distribution. If this model holds, then the log transformation produces a normal distribution. We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the mean of the log-normal distribution. Several methods for doing this are known, including at least one estimator that performed better than Coxxs method for small sample sizes. We also construct a modified version of Coxxs method. Using simulation, we show that, when the sample size exceeds 30, it leads to confidence intervals that have good overall properties and are better than Coxxs method. More precisely, the actual coverage probability of our method is closer to the nominal coverage probability than is the case with Coxxs method. In addition, the new method is computationally much simpler than other well-known methods.

  12. Confidence measure and performance evaluation for HRRR-based classifiers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rago, Constantino; Zajic, Tim; Huff, Melvyn; Mehra, Raman K.; Mahler, Ronald P. S.; Noviskey, Michael J.

    2002-07-01

    The work presented here is a continuation of research first reported in Mahler, et. al. Our earlier efforts included integrating the Statistical Features algorithm with a Bayesian nonlinear filter, allowing simultaneous determination of target position, velocity, pose and type via maximum a posteriori estimation. We then considered three alternative classifiers: the first based on a principal component decomposition, the second on a linear discriminant approach, and the third on a wavelet representation. In addition, preliminary results were given with regards to assigning a measure of confidence to the output of the wavelet based classifier. In this paper we continue to address the problem of target classification based on high range resolution radar signatures. In particular, we examine the performance of a variant of the principal component based classifier as the number of principal components is varied. We have chosen to quantify the performance in terms of the Bhattacharyya distance. We also present further results regarding the assignment of confidence values to the output of the wavelet based classifier.

  13. Modernizing confidence-building measures for the Biological Weapons Convention.

    PubMed

    Koblentz, Gregory D; Chevrier, Marie Isabelle

    2011-09-01

    The Seventh Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention in December 2011 provides an opportunity to modernize the treaty to better address the challenges of the 21st century. The key to this modernization is to redesign the treaty's Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs), the only formal mechanism for increasing transparency and demonstrating compliance with the treaty, to address changes in the global scientific, health, and security environments since the end of the Cold War. The scope of the CBMs should be expanded beyond state-run biological warfare programs to encompass a broader array of threats to global security, such as biological terrorism, laboratory accidents, dual-use research, and disease pandemics. Modernizing the CBM mechanism to take into account these new risks would extend the transparency-enhancing benefits of CBMs to a range of new and important topics, such as biosafety, laboratory biosecurity, and dual-use research oversight; make the CBMs and the treaty itself more relevant to the concerns and priorities of more states; and build on progress made during the recent series of intersessional meetings. To accomplish this, the CBMs need to be revised to shift their focus from hardware, the dual-use capabilities relevant to the treaty, to software, the political and legal institutions that govern the development and use of these capabilities. A more modern CBM mechanism should encourage greater participation in the confidence-building process, improve international cooperation against the full spectrum of biological risks, and promote the goal of universal membership in the treaty.

  14. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  15. Bias-corrected confidence intervals for the concentration parameter in a dilution assay.

    PubMed

    Wang, J; Basu, S

    1999-03-01

    Interval estimates of the concentration of target entities from a serial dilution assay are usually based on the maximum likelihood estimator. The distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator is skewed to the right and is positively biased. This bias results in interval estimates that either provide inadequate coverage relative to the nominal level or yield excessively long intervals. Confidence intervals based on both log transformation and bias reduction are proposed and are shown through simulations to provide appropriate coverage with shorter widths than the commonly used intervals in a variety of designs. An application to feline AIDS research, which motivated this work, is also presented.

  16. The Role of Residential Early Parenting Services in Increasing Parenting Confidence in Mothers with A History of Infertility

    PubMed Central

    Khajehei, Marjan; Finch, Lynette

    2016-01-01

    Background Mothers with a history of infertility may experience parenting difficulties and challenges. This study was conducted to investigate the role of residential early parenting services in increasing parenting confidence in mothers with a history of infertility. Materials and Methods This was a retrospective chart review study using the quantitative data from the clients attending the Karitane Residential Units and Parenting Services (known as Karitane RUs) during 2013. Parenting confidence (using Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale-KPCS), depression, demographics, reproductive and medical history, as well as child’s information were assessed from a sample of 27 mothers who had a history of infertility and who attended the Karitane RUs for support and assistance. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 19. Results More than half of the women (59.3%) reported a relatively low level of parenting confidence on the day of admission. The rate of low parenting confidence, however, dropped to 22.2% after receiving 4-5 days support and training in the Karitane RUs. The mean score of the KPCS increased from 36.9 ± 5.6 before the intervention to 41.1 ± 3.4 after the intervention, indicating an improvement in the parenting confidence of the mothers after attending the Karitane RUs (P<0.0001). No statistically significant association was found between maternal low parenting confidence with parental demographics (including age, country of birth, and employment status), a history of help-seeking, symptoms of depression, as well as child’s information [including gender, age, siblings, diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD) and use of medication]. Conclusion Having a child after a period of infertility can be a stressful experience for some mothers. This can result in low parenting confidence and affect parent-child attachment. Our findings emphasized on the role of the residential early parenting services in promoting the level of parenting confidence

  17. Robust Framework to Combine Diverse Classifiers Assigning Distributed Confidence to Individual Classifiers at Class Level

    PubMed Central

    Arshad, Sannia; Rho, Seungmin

    2014-01-01

    We have presented a classification framework that combines multiple heterogeneous classifiers in the presence of class label noise. An extension of m-Mediods based modeling is presented that generates model of various classes whilst identifying and filtering noisy training data. This noise free data is further used to learn model for other classifiers such as GMM and SVM. A weight learning method is then introduced to learn weights on each class for different classifiers to construct an ensemble. For this purpose, we applied genetic algorithm to search for an optimal weight vector on which classifier ensemble is expected to give the best accuracy. The proposed approach is evaluated on variety of real life datasets. It is also compared with existing standard ensemble techniques such as Adaboost, Bagging, and Random Subspace Methods. Experimental results show the superiority of proposed ensemble method as compared to its competitors, especially in the presence of class label noise and imbalance classes. PMID:25295302

  18. Modes of occurrence of potentially hazardous elements in coal: levels of confidence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Finkelman, R.B.

    1994-01-01

    The modes of occurrence of the potentially hazardous elements in coal will be of significance in any attempt to reduce their mobilization due to coal combustion. Antimony and selenium may be present in solid solution in pyrite, as minute accessory sulfides dispersed throughout the organic matrix, or in organic association. Because of these modes of occurrence it is anticipated that less than 50% of these elements will be routinely removed by conventional coal cleaning procedures. Arsenic and mercury occur primarily in late-stage coarse-grained pyrite therefore physical coal cleaning procedures should be successful in removing substantial proportions of these elements. Cadmium occurs in sphalerite and lead in galena. Both of these minerals exhibit a wide range of particle sizes and textural relations. Depending on the particle size and textural relations, physical coal cleaning may remove as little as 25% of these elements or as much as 75%. Manganese in bituminous coal occurs in carbonates, especially siderite. Physical coal cleaning should remove a substantial proportion of this element. More information is needed to elucidate the modes of occurrence of beryllium, chromium, cobalt, and nickel. ?? 1994.

  19. How Special Are Teachers of Specialized Schools? Assessing Self-Confidence Levels in the Technology Domain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Çatma, Zehra; Corlu, Mehmet Sencer

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates whether specialized high school mathematics teachers, chosen to educate selected students, are mentally ready to integrate Fatih project technologies into their teaching. Forty mathematics teachers from randomly selected specialized and general high schools in Ankara responded to a survey comprising 31 items grouped under…

  20. Entry-Level Athletic Trainers' Perceived Adequacy of Clinical Education in Preparation for Confident Professional Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shinew, Kayla A.

    2011-01-01

    Athletic training educators are responsible for giving athletic training students a proper environment in which they have opportunities to apply didactic knowledge using critical thinking and decision making skills in a real world context (Radtke, 2008). Clinical education needs to play an integral role in developing athletic training students…

  1. Impact of Technology Based Instruction on Speech Competency and Presentation Confidence Levels of Hispanic College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mundy, Marie-Anne; Padilla Oviedo, Andres; Ramirez, Juan; Taylor, Nick; Flores, Itza

    2014-01-01

    One of the main goals of universities is to graduate students who are capable and competent in competing in the workforce. As presentational communication skills are critical in today's job market, Hispanic university students need to be trained to effectively develop and deliver presentational speeches. Web/technology enhanced training techniques…

  2. High School Students' Proficiency and Confidence Levels in Displaying Their Understanding of Basic Electrolysis Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sia, Ding Teng; Treagust, David F.; Chandrasegaran, A. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study was conducted with 330 Form 4 (grade 10) students (aged 15-16 years) who were involved in a course of instruction on electrolysis concepts. The main purposes of this study were (1) to assess high school chemistry students' understanding of 19 major principles of electrolysis using a recently developed 2-tier multiple-choice diagnostic…

  3. Autism Spectrum Disorders: Experience, Training, and Confidence Levels of School-Based Speech-Language Pathologists

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Plumb, Allison M.; Plexico, Laura W.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the graduate training experiences of school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) working with children with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). Comparisons were made between recent graduates (post 2006) and pre-2006 graduates to determine if differences existed in their academic and clinical experiences or their…

  4. Secondary At-Risk Students' Online Course Self-Confidence Levels: An Exploratory Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dennison, Shane D.

    2012-01-01

    Many high school seniors are either not graduating on time or not graduating at all. A computer-based course recovery program could help many struggling districts in this area of need. This study employed a non-experimental quantitative approach to address possible relationships between computer-based instruction and learning outcomes. The sample…

  5. Key Concepts of Environmental Sustainability: Knowledge and Confidence Levels of FCS Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harden, Amy J.; Friesen, Carol A.; Thompson, Nancy E.

    2014-01-01

    Family and consumer sciences (FCS) is a logical discipline to promote environmental sustainability within the family because it is recognized as helping people make informed decisions about the well-being of individuals and their relationships and resources to achieve optimal quality of life.The objective of this article was to measure the…

  6. Allocating resources and building confidence in public-safety decisions for nuclear waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, K L; Wilder, D G

    1999-05-21

    There are three basic ways to protect the public from the hazards of exposure to radionuclides in nuclear waste: completely contain the waste; limit the rate at which radionuclides are released; and, once radionuclides are released, minimize their impact by reducing concentrations and retarding transport. A geologic repository system that implements all three provides maximum protection for the public: if one element fails, the others serve to protect. This is ''defense-in-depth.'' Demonstrating confidence in the ability of a designed system to provide the requisite safety to the public must rely on a combination of the following aspects relating to engineered and natural system components: 1 Knowledge or understanding of properties and processes 2 Uniformity of (or ability to understand or control) the range of variability associated with each component 3 Experience over time This paper proposes a tool based on defining a ''confidence region'' determined by these three essential aspects of confidence. The defense-in-depth decision-making tool described identifies the portion of the ultimate confidence region that is not well demonstrated and indicates where there is potential for changing a specific component's confidence region, therefore providing in-formation for decisions on emphasis--either for demonstrating performance or for focusing on further studies. The US Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP), wherein Yucca Mountain is being investigated as a potential site for a nuclear waste repository, and the Swedish geologic repository studies are used as examples of this tool. of protective or operating components such that failure of a single component does not by itself lead to system failure. The greater the exposure to loss, the greater the requirements for design margins (the margin of conservatism associated with the fabrication and operation of important components in complex engineering projects) or for compensation by defense-in-depth. Thus

  7. Employing Key Indicators to Provide a Dynamic Risk Picture with a Notion of Confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Refsdal, Atle; Stølen, Ketil

    A security risk analysis will only serve its purpose if we can trust that the risk levels obtained from the analysis are correct. However, obtaining correct risk levels requires that we find correct likelihood and consequence values for the unwanted incidents identified during the analysis. This is often very hard. Moreover, the values may soon be outdated as the system under consideration or its environment changes. It is therefore desirable to be able to base estimates of risk levels on measurable indicators that are dynamically updated. In this paper we present an approach for exploiting measurable indicators in order to obtain a risk picture that is continuously or periodically updated. We also suggest dynamic notions of confidence aiming to capture to what extent we may trust the current risk picture.

  8. A pilot structured resident orientation curriculum improves the confidence of incoming first-year obstetrics and gynecology residents.

    PubMed

    Hiraoka, Mark; Kamikawa, Ginny; McCartin, Richard; Kaneshiro, Bliss

    2013-11-01

    A prospective, observational study was performed to evaluate a pilot orientation curriculum which involved all 7 incoming obstetrics and gynecology residents in June 2012. The objective of this study was to assess how a structured orientation curriculum, which employs an evaluation of baseline competency, affects the confidence of incoming first-year obstetrics and gynecology residents. The curriculum included didactic lectures, online modules, simulation, and mock clinical scenarios. Pre- and post-course surveys were conducted online via SurveyMonkey™ and were sent to all incoming obstetrics and gynecology residents. All seven incoming obstetrics and gynecology residents completed the orientation curriculum which included evaluations at the end of the orientation to assess baseline competency prior to taking part in clinical care. Confidence levels improved in all 27 elements assessed. Statistically significant improvement in confidence levels occurred in cognitive skills such as obstetric emergency management (2.9 vs 3.9, P< .05) and technical skills such as knot tying (3.9 vs. 4.6, P< .05). Certain teaching skills also demonstrated statistically significant improvements. A structured orientation program which improves resident self-confidence levels and demonstrates baseline competencies in certain clinical areas can be valuable for many residency training programs.

  9. Calculation of Retention Time Tolerance Windows with Absolute Confidence from Shared Liquid Chromatographic Retention Data

    PubMed Central

    Boswell, Paul G.; Abate-Pella, Daniel; Hewitt, Joshua T.

    2015-01-01

    Compound identification by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) is a tedious process, mainly because authentic standards must be run on a user’s system to be able to confidently reject a potential identity from its retention time and mass spectral properties. Instead, it would be preferable to use shared retention time/index data to narrow down the identity, but shared data cannot be used to reject candidates with an absolute level of confidence because the data are strongly affected by differences between HPLC systems and experimental conditions. However, a technique called “retention projection” was recently shown to account for many of the differences. In this manuscript, we discuss an approach to calculate appropriate retention time tolerance windows for projected retention times, potentially making it possible to exclude candidates with an absolute level of confidence, without needing to have authentic standards of each candidate on hand. In a range of multi-segment gradients and flow rates run among seven different labs, the new approach calculated tolerance windows that were significantly more appropriate for each retention projection than global tolerance windows calculated for retention projections or linear retention indices. Though there were still some small differences between the labs that evidently were not taken into account, the calculated tolerance windows only needed to be relaxed by 50% to make them appropriate for all labs. Even then, 42% of the tolerance windows calculated in this study without standards were narrower than those required by WADA for positive identification, where standards must be run contemporaneously. PMID:26292624

  10. Facial Comparison from CCTV footage: The competence and confidence of the jury.

    PubMed

    Walker, Heather; Tough, Ann

    2015-12-01

    CCTV footage is commonly used in the court room to help visualise the crime in question and to help identify the offender. Unfortunately the majority of surveillance cameras produce such poor quality images that the task of identifying individuals can be extremely difficult. This study aimed at determining whether the task of identifying the offender in CCTV footage was one which a jury should be competent to do, or whether expert evidence would be beneficial in such cases. The ability of potential jury members, the general public, was tested by asking participants to play the role of a jury member by means of an online survey. Potential jury members viewed CCTV in which a simulated offence took place, and were subsequently asked to compare still images of a defendant to the offender to try to determine if they were competent and confident about making a judgement as to whether the defendant committed the crime. Factors such as age, gender and profession of the potential jury members were considered, as well as the type of crime committed, in order to establish if these play any role in the decision made by potential jury members. These factors did not appear to play a significant role; however confidence was also investigated and it became very evident that this was a factor that must be taken into consideration when determining the requirement for expert contribution in facial comparisons. Jury members may well be willing and competent to a basic level in carrying out a facial comparison but if they lack a certain level of confidence in their ability and decision making then this task is more suitable for an expert with experience and skills in this field. PMID:26654085

  11. Facial Comparison from CCTV footage: The competence and confidence of the jury.

    PubMed

    Walker, Heather; Tough, Ann

    2015-12-01

    CCTV footage is commonly used in the court room to help visualise the crime in question and to help identify the offender. Unfortunately the majority of surveillance cameras produce such poor quality images that the task of identifying individuals can be extremely difficult. This study aimed at determining whether the task of identifying the offender in CCTV footage was one which a jury should be competent to do, or whether expert evidence would be beneficial in such cases. The ability of potential jury members, the general public, was tested by asking participants to play the role of a jury member by means of an online survey. Potential jury members viewed CCTV in which a simulated offence took place, and were subsequently asked to compare still images of a defendant to the offender to try to determine if they were competent and confident about making a judgement as to whether the defendant committed the crime. Factors such as age, gender and profession of the potential jury members were considered, as well as the type of crime committed, in order to establish if these play any role in the decision made by potential jury members. These factors did not appear to play a significant role; however confidence was also investigated and it became very evident that this was a factor that must be taken into consideration when determining the requirement for expert contribution in facial comparisons. Jury members may well be willing and competent to a basic level in carrying out a facial comparison but if they lack a certain level of confidence in their ability and decision making then this task is more suitable for an expert with experience and skills in this field.

  12. A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence.

    PubMed

    van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

    2016-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy. PMID:26829590

  13. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-10-10

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  14. The mechanical career of Councillor Orffyreus, confidence man

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Alejandro

    2013-06-01

    In the early 18th century, J. E. E. Bessler, known as Orffyreus, constructed several wheels that he claimed could keep turning forever, powered only by gravity. He never revealed the details of his invention, but he conducted demonstrations (with the machine's inner workings covered) that persuaded competent observers that he might have discovered the secret of perpetual motion. Among Bessler's defenders were Gottfried Leibniz, Johann Bernoulli, Professor Willem 's Gravesande of Leiden University (who wrote to Isaac Newton on the subject), and Prince Karl, ruler of the German state of Hesse-Kassel. We review Bessler's work, placing it within the context of the intellectual debates of the time about mechanical conservation laws and the (im)possibility of perpetual motion. We also mention Bessler's long career as a confidence man, the details of which were discussed in popular 19th-century German publications but have remained unfamiliar to authors in other languages.

  15. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    DOE PAGES

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

  16. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  17. Improving Semi-Global Matching: Cost Aggregation and Confidence Measure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    d'Angelo, Pablo

    2016-06-01

    Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM) algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  18. Gaining Confidence in Navigating Rosetta at Mars Swing-By

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crammn, Ruediger; Budnik, Frank

    2007-01-01

    The Mars swing-by in the early morning of the 25th of February 2007 was one of the most critical events the Rosetta mission has experienced so far on its way to the comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The closest approach took place at a distance of only 250 km from the planet s surface. Missing the optimal target would have translated into considerable fuel cost. In order to achieve confidence in operating through this highly critical mission phase, a navigation analysis exercise was carried out beforehand. This paper describes the purpose and the chosen approach for this preparatory Flight Dynamics activity. It presents and discusses results of the analysis. Emphasis is put on the question of what is needed to simulate a valuable data set representative for operations. The results of the navigation analysis are compared with real data obtained during swing-by operations.

  19. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification

    PubMed Central

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date. PMID:27571918

  20. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  1. Measuring Intuition: Nonconscious Emotional Information Boosts Decision Accuracy and Confidence.

    PubMed

    Lufityanto, Galang; Donkin, Chris; Pearson, Joel

    2016-05-01

    The long-held popular notion of intuition has garnered much attention both academically and popularly. Although most people agree that there is such a phenomenon as intuition, involving emotionally charged, rapid, unconscious processes, little compelling evidence supports this notion. Here, we introduce a technique in which subliminal emotional information is presented to subjects while they make fully conscious sensory decisions. Our behavioral and physiological data, along with evidence-accumulator models, show that nonconscious emotional information can boost accuracy and confidence in a concurrent emotion-free decision task, while also speeding up response times. Moreover, these effects were contingent on the specific predictive arrangement of the nonconscious emotional valence and motion direction in the decisional stimulus. A model that simultaneously accumulates evidence from both physiological skin conductance and conscious decisional information provides an accurate description of the data. These findings support the notion that nonconscious emotions can bias concurrent nonemotional behavior-a process of intuition.

  2. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification.

    PubMed

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date. PMID:27571918

  3. Confidence-based ensemble for GBM brain tumor segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Jing; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Okada, Kazunori; Kim, Hyun J.; Pope, Whitney; Goldin, Jonathan; Brown, Matthew

    2011-03-01

    It is a challenging task to automatically segment glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumors on T1w post-contrast isotropic MR images. A semi-automated system using fuzzy connectedness has recently been developed for computing the tumor volume that reduces the cost of manual annotation. In this study, we propose a an ensemble method that combines multiple segmentation results into a final ensemble one. The method is evaluated on a dataset of 20 cases from a multi-center pharmaceutical drug trial and compared to the fuzzy connectedness method. Three individual methods were used in the framework: fuzzy connectedness, GrowCut, and voxel classification. The combination method is a confidence map averaging (CMA) method. The CMA method shows an improved ROC curve compared to the fuzzy connectedness method (p < 0.001). The CMA ensemble result is more robust compared to the three individual methods.

  4. Establishing confidence in complex physics codes: Art or science?

    SciTech Connect

    Trucano, T.

    1997-12-31

    The ALEGRA shock wave physics code, currently under development at Sandia National Laboratories and partially supported by the US Advanced Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI), is generic to a certain class of physics codes: large, multi-application, intended to support a broad user community on the latest generation of massively parallel supercomputer, and in a continual state of formal development. To say that the author has ``confidence`` in the results of ALEGRA is to say something different than that he believes that ALEGRA is ``predictive.`` It is the purpose of this talk to illustrate the distinction between these two concepts. The author elects to perform this task in a somewhat historical manner. He will summarize certain older approaches to code validation. He views these methods as aiming to establish the predictive behavior of the code. These methods are distinguished by their emphasis on local information. He will conclude that these approaches are more art than science.

  5. Leveraging waveform complexity for confident detection of gravitational waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanner, Jonah B.; Littenberg, Tyson B.; Cornish, Neil; Millhouse, Meg; Xhakaj, Enia; Salemi, Francesco; Drago, Marco; Vedovato, Gabriele; Klimenko, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    The recent completion of Advanced LIGO suggests that gravitational waves may soon be directly observed. Past searches for gravitational-wave transients have been impacted by transient noise artifacts, known as glitches, introduced into LIGO data due to instrumental and environmental effects. In this work, we explore how waveform complexity, instead of signal-to-noise ratio, can be used to rank event candidates and distinguish short duration astrophysical signals from glitches. We test this framework using a new hierarchical pipeline that directly compares the Bayesian evidence of explicit signal and glitch models. The hierarchical pipeline is shown to perform well and, in particular, to allow high-confidence detections of a range of waveforms at a realistic signal-to-noise ratio with a two-detector network.

  6. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects

    PubMed Central

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  7. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification.

    PubMed

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date.

  8. Modernizing confidence-building measures for the Biological Weapons Convention.

    PubMed

    Koblentz, Gregory D; Chevrier, Marie Isabelle

    2011-09-01

    The Seventh Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention in December 2011 provides an opportunity to modernize the treaty to better address the challenges of the 21st century. The key to this modernization is to redesign the treaty's Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs), the only formal mechanism for increasing transparency and demonstrating compliance with the treaty, to address changes in the global scientific, health, and security environments since the end of the Cold War. The scope of the CBMs should be expanded beyond state-run biological warfare programs to encompass a broader array of threats to global security, such as biological terrorism, laboratory accidents, dual-use research, and disease pandemics. Modernizing the CBM mechanism to take into account these new risks would extend the transparency-enhancing benefits of CBMs to a range of new and important topics, such as biosafety, laboratory biosecurity, and dual-use research oversight; make the CBMs and the treaty itself more relevant to the concerns and priorities of more states; and build on progress made during the recent series of intersessional meetings. To accomplish this, the CBMs need to be revised to shift their focus from hardware, the dual-use capabilities relevant to the treaty, to software, the political and legal institutions that govern the development and use of these capabilities. A more modern CBM mechanism should encourage greater participation in the confidence-building process, improve international cooperation against the full spectrum of biological risks, and promote the goal of universal membership in the treaty. PMID:21819226

  9. A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mainen, Zachary F.

    2012-01-01

    Confidence judgements, self-assessments about the quality of a subject's knowledge, are considered a central example of metacognition. Prima facie, introspection and self-report appear the only way to access the subjective sense of confidence or uncertainty. Contrary to this notion, overt behavioural measures can be used to study confidence judgements by animals trained in decision-making tasks with perceptual or mnemonic uncertainty. Here, we suggest that a computational approach can clarify the issues involved in interpreting these tasks and provide a much needed springboard for advancing the scientific understanding of confidence. We first review relevant theories of probabilistic inference and decision-making. We then critically discuss behavioural tasks employed to measure confidence in animals and show how quantitative models can help to constrain the computational strategies underlying confidence-reporting behaviours. In our view, post-decision wagering tasks with continuous measures of confidence appear to offer the best available metrics of confidence. Since behavioural reports alone provide a limited window into mechanism, we argue that progress calls for measuring the neural representations and identifying the computations underlying confidence reports. We present a case study using such a computational approach to study the neural correlates of decision confidence in rats. This work shows that confidence assessments may be considered higher order, but can be generated using elementary neural computations that are available to a wide range of species. Finally, we discuss the relationship of confidence judgements to the wider behavioural uses of confidence and uncertainty. PMID:22492750

  10. A comparison of several methods for the confidence intervals of negative binomial proportions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thong, Alfred Lim Sheng; Shan, Fam Pei

    2015-12-01

    This study focuses on the comparison of the performances of several approaches in constructing confidence interval of negative binomial proportions (single negative binomial proportion and the difference between two negative binomial proportions). After that, the strengths and weaknesses of the approaches in constructing confidence interval of negative binomial proportions are figured out. Performances of the approaches will be accessed by comparing their coverage probabilities and average lengths of confidence intervals. For the comparison of the performances of the approaches in single negative binomial proportion, Wald confidence interval (WCI-I), Agresti confidence interval (ACI-I), Wilson's Score confidence interval (WSCI-I) and Jeffrey confidence interval (JCI-I) are used. WSCI-I is the better approach for single negative binomial proportion in term of the average length of confidence intervals and average coverage probability. While for the comparison of the performances of the approaches in the difference between two negative binomial proportions, Wald confidence interval (WCI-II), Agresti confidence interval (ACI-II), Newcombe's Score confidence interval (NSCI-II), Jeffrey confidence interval (JCI-II) and Yule confidence interval (YCI-II) are used. Under different situations, a better approach has been discussed and recommended. There will be different approach that performs better for the coverage probability.

  11. A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mainen, Zachary F

    2012-05-19

    Confidence judgements, self-assessments about the quality of a subject's knowledge, are considered a central example of metacognition. Prima facie, introspection and self-report appear the only way to access the subjective sense of confidence or uncertainty. Contrary to this notion, overt behavioural measures can be used to study confidence judgements by animals trained in decision-making tasks with perceptual or mnemonic uncertainty. Here, we suggest that a computational approach can clarify the issues involved in interpreting these tasks and provide a much needed springboard for advancing the scientific understanding of confidence. We first review relevant theories of probabilistic inference and decision-making. We then critically discuss behavioural tasks employed to measure confidence in animals and show how quantitative models can help to constrain the computational strategies underlying confidence-reporting behaviours. In our view, post-decision wagering tasks with continuous measures of confidence appear to offer the best available metrics of confidence. Since behavioural reports alone provide a limited window into mechanism, we argue that progress calls for measuring the neural representations and identifying the computations underlying confidence reports. We present a case study using such a computational approach to study the neural correlates of decision confidence in rats. This work shows that confidence assessments may be considered higher order, but can be generated using elementary neural computations that are available to a wide range of species. Finally, we discuss the relationship of confidence judgements to the wider behavioural uses of confidence and uncertainty.

  12. Improved LC-MS/MS Spectral Counting Statistics by Recovering Low Scoring Spectra Matched to Confidently Identified Peptide Sequences

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Jian-Ying; Schepmoes, Athena A.; Zhang, Xu; Moore, Ronald J.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Lee, Jung Hwa; Camp, David G.; Smith, Richard D.; Qian, Wei-Jun

    2010-01-01

    Spectral counting has become a popular method for LC-MS/MS based proteome quantification; however, this methodology is often not reliable when proteins are identified by a small number of spectra. Here we present a simple strategy to improve spectral counting based quantification for low abundance proteins by recovering low quality or low scoring spectra for confidently identified peptides. In this approach, stringent data filtering criteria were initially applied to achieve confident peptide identifications with low false discovery rate (e.g., < 1% at peptide level) after LC-MS/MS analysis and database search by SEQUEST. Then, all low scoring MS/MS spectra that match to this set of confidently identified peptides were recovered, leading to more than 20% increase of total identified spectra. The validity of these recovered spectra was assessed by the parent ion mass measurement error distribution, retention time distribution, and by comparing the individual low score and high score spectra that correspond to the same peptides. The results support that the recovered low scoring spectra have similar confidence levels in peptide identifications as the spectra passing the initial stringent filter. The application of this strategy of recovering low scoring spectra significantly improved the spectral count quantification statistics for low abundance proteins, as illustrated in the identification of mouse brain region specific proteins. PMID:20812748

  13. Developing confidence in mental health students to recognise and manage physical health problems using a learning intervention.

    PubMed

    Chadwick, Angelina Lilja; Withnell, Neil

    2016-07-01

    Globally, there is increased recognition of a higher prevalence of physical ill health and mortality in individuals with mental health problems. A review of the literature highlighted the need to address deterioration in physical health of those with mental health problems through better recognition and management on the part of mental health nurses. However, mental health nurses have been found to lack confidence and be unsure of their role within this area. The aim of the project was to develop pre-registration mental health students' confidence to be able to recognise and manage physical health deterioration through the use of high fidelity human patient simulation, the development of contextualised clinical scenarios and additional theory around the A to E mnemonic structured assessment. The project involved 95 third year mental health student nurses, using a self-rating pre and post intervention questionnaire to measure their perceived confidence levels and to evaluate the effectiveness of the learning intervention. Findings demonstrate improved overall confidence levels in recognising and managing physical health deterioration in human patient simulators displaying mental health problems. PMID:27428688

  14. Some calculator programs for particle physics. [LEGENDRE, ASSOCIATED LEGENDRE, CONFIDENCE, TWO BODY, ELLIPSE, DALITZ RECTANGULAR, and DALITZ TRIANGULAR codes

    SciTech Connect

    Wohl, C.G.

    1982-01-01

    Seven calculator programs that do simple chores that arise in elementary particle physics are given. LEGENDRE evaluates the Legendre polynomial series ..sigma..a/sub n/P/sub n/(x) at a series of values of x. ASSOCIATED LEGENDRE evaluates the first-associated Legendre polynomial series ..sigma..b/sub n/P/sub n//sup 1/(x) at a series of values of x. CONFIDENCE calculates confidence levels for chi/sup 2/, Gaussian, or Poisson probability distributions. TWO BODY calculates the c.m. energy, the initial- and final-state c.m. momenta, and the extreme values of t and u for a 2-body reaction. ELLIPSE calculates coordinates of points for drawing an ellipse plot showing the kinematics of a 2-body reaction or decay. DALITZ RECTANGULAR calculates coordinates of points on the boundary of a rectangular Dalitz plot. DALITZ TRIANGULAR calculates coordinates of points on the boundary of a triangular Dalitz plot. There are short versions of CONFIDENCE (EVEN N and POISSON) that calculate confidence levels for the even-degree-of-freedom-chi/sup 2/ and the Poisson cases, and there is a short version of TWO BODY (CM) that calculates just the c.m. energy and initial-state momentum. The programs are written for the HP-97 calculator. (WHK)

  15. Developing confidence in mental health students to recognise and manage physical health problems using a learning intervention.

    PubMed

    Chadwick, Angelina Lilja; Withnell, Neil

    2016-07-01

    Globally, there is increased recognition of a higher prevalence of physical ill health and mortality in individuals with mental health problems. A review of the literature highlighted the need to address deterioration in physical health of those with mental health problems through better recognition and management on the part of mental health nurses. However, mental health nurses have been found to lack confidence and be unsure of their role within this area. The aim of the project was to develop pre-registration mental health students' confidence to be able to recognise and manage physical health deterioration through the use of high fidelity human patient simulation, the development of contextualised clinical scenarios and additional theory around the A to E mnemonic structured assessment. The project involved 95 third year mental health student nurses, using a self-rating pre and post intervention questionnaire to measure their perceived confidence levels and to evaluate the effectiveness of the learning intervention. Findings demonstrate improved overall confidence levels in recognising and managing physical health deterioration in human patient simulators displaying mental health problems.

  16. The Relation between Nursing Administration’s Self-Confidence and the Staff’s Vocational Satisfaction

    PubMed Central

    FARZIANPOUR, Fereshteh; HOSSEINI, Seyyed Mostafa; MOVAHED KOR, Elham; HOSSEINI, Shayan; AMERZADEH, Mohamad; AHMADI, Batul

    2013-01-01

    Background Self-confidence is a glorious feature of an effective administrator. Their main goal is the organizational success. Therefore, we approached this idea by evaluating the self-confidence of nursing Administration in Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS) Teaching Hospitals and its relation to vocational satisfaction of the staff. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, we interviewed 200 nursing administrators and 200 staff in different departments of the TUMS Teaching Hospitals using a standardized questionnaire to assess the self-confidence among nursing administrators and staff satisfaction. Data were entered in SPSS (17.0) and analyzed using this software and STATA (11.0) using non-parametric tests and Spearman’s correlation of coefficient. The significant level was set as P<0.05. Results: Of 200 nursing administrators 58 (29%) were male and 142 (71%) were female. Mean ± SD of the self-confidence score for the nursing administrators was 134.9 ± 19.8. Among the staff 68 (34%) were male and 132 (66%) were female. The mean ± SD of the vocational satisfaction for staff was 89.12 ± 18.3. After considering the effect of departments in a regression model, the correlation between nursing administration’s self-confidence and the staff’s vocational satisfaction was found not significant (P=0.055). Conclusion: Gender and years of employment were the only factors affecting self-confidence and vocational satisfaction between the nursing administration and staff respectively, which not significantly correlated after adjustment. PMID:23785681

  17. Knowing right from wrong in mental arithmetic judgments: calibration of confidence predicts the development of accuracy.

    PubMed

    Rinne, Luke F; Mazzocco, Michèle M M

    2014-01-01

    Does knowing when mental arithmetic judgments are right--and when they are wrong--lead to more accurate judgments over time? We hypothesize that the successful detection of errors (and avoidance of false alarms) may contribute to the development of mental arithmetic performance. Insight into error detection abilities can be gained by examining the "calibration" of mental arithmetic judgments-that is, the alignment between confidence in judgments and the accuracy of those judgments. Calibration may be viewed as a measure of metacognitive monitoring ability. We conducted a developmental longitudinal investigation of the relationship between the calibration of children's mental arithmetic judgments and their performance on a mental arithmetic task. Annually between Grades 5 and 8, children completed a problem verification task in which they rapidly judged the accuracy of arithmetic expressions (e.g., 25 + 50 = 75) and rated their confidence in each judgment. Results showed that calibration was strongly related to concurrent mental arithmetic performance, that calibration continued to develop even as mental arithmetic accuracy approached ceiling, that poor calibration distinguished children with mathematics learning disability from both low and typically achieving children, and that better calibration in Grade 5 predicted larger gains in mental arithmetic accuracy between Grades 5 and 8. We propose that good calibration supports the implementation of cognitive control, leading to long-term improvement in mental arithmetic accuracy. Because mental arithmetic "fluency" is critical for higher-level mathematics competence, calibration of confidence in mental arithmetic judgments may represent a novel and important developmental predictor of future mathematics performance. PMID:24988539

  18. Knowing Right From Wrong In Mental Arithmetic Judgments: Calibration Of Confidence Predicts The Development Of Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Rinne, Luke F.; Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.

    2014-01-01

    Does knowing when mental arithmetic judgments are right—and when they are wrong—lead to more accurate judgments over time? We hypothesize that the successful detection of errors (and avoidance of false alarms) may contribute to the development of mental arithmetic performance. Insight into error detection abilities can be gained by examining the “calibration” of mental arithmetic judgments—that is, the alignment between confidence in judgments and the accuracy of those judgments. Calibration may be viewed as a measure of metacognitive monitoring ability. We conducted a developmental longitudinal investigation of the relationship between the calibration of children's mental arithmetic judgments and their performance on a mental arithmetic task. Annually between Grades 5 and 8, children completed a problem verification task in which they rapidly judged the accuracy of arithmetic expressions (e.g., 25+50 = 75) and rated their confidence in each judgment. Results showed that calibration was strongly related to concurrent mental arithmetic performance, that calibration continued to develop even as mental arithmetic accuracy approached ceiling, that poor calibration distinguished children with mathematics learning disability from both low and typically achieving children, and that better calibration in Grade 5 predicted larger gains in mental arithmetic accuracy between Grades 5 and 8. We propose that good calibration supports the implementation of cognitive control, leading to long-term improvement in mental arithmetic accuracy. Because mental arithmetic “fluency” is critical for higher-level mathematics competence, calibration of confidence in mental arithmetic judgments may represent a novel and important developmental predictor of future mathematics performance. PMID:24988539

  19. Mental Health Practitioners' Perceived Levels of Preparedness, Levels of Confidence and Methods Used in the Assessment of Youth Suicide Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Robert C.

    2016-01-01

    Mental health practitioners working within school or community settings may at any time find themselves working with youth presenting with suicidal thoughts or behaviors. Although always well intended, practitioners are making significant clinical decisions that have high potential for influencing a range of outcomes, including very negative…

  20. Using argument notation to engineer biological simulations with increased confidence

    PubMed Central

    Alden, Kieran; Andrews, Paul S.; Polack, Fiona A. C.; Veiga-Fernandes, Henrique; Coles, Mark C.; Timmis, Jon

    2015-01-01

    The application of computational and mathematical modelling to explore the mechanics of biological systems is becoming prevalent. To significantly impact biological research, notably in developing novel therapeutics, it is critical that the model adequately represents the captured system. Confidence in adopting in silico approaches can be improved by applying a structured argumentation approach, alongside model development and results analysis. We propose an approach based on argumentation from safety-critical systems engineering, where a system is subjected to a stringent analysis of compliance against identified criteria. We show its use in examining the biological information upon which a model is based, identifying model strengths, highlighting areas requiring additional biological experimentation and providing documentation to support model publication. We demonstrate our use of structured argumentation in the development of a model of lymphoid tissue formation, specifically Peyer's Patches. The argumentation structure is captured using Artoo (www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software/artoo), our Web-based tool for constructing fitness-for-purpose arguments, using a notation based on the safety-critical goal structuring notation. We show how argumentation helps in making the design and structured analysis of a model transparent, capturing the reasoning behind the inclusion or exclusion of each biological feature and recording assumptions, as well as pointing to evidence supporting model-derived conclusions. PMID:25589574

  1. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    PubMed

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system. PMID:26710335

  2. Enabling high confidence detections of gravitational-wave bursts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Littenberg, Tyson B.; Kanner, Jonah B.; Cornish, Neil J.; Millhouse, Margaret

    2016-08-01

    Extracting astrophysical information from gravitational-wave detections is a well-posed problem and thoroughly studied when detailed models for the waveforms are available. However, one motivation for the field of gravitational-wave astronomy is the potential for new discoveries. Recognizing and characterizing unanticipated signals requires data analysis techniques which do not depend on theoretical predictions for the gravitational waveform. Past searches for short-duration unmodeled gravitational-wave signals have been hampered by transient noise artifacts, or "glitches," in the detectors. We have put forth the BayesWave algorithm to differentiate between generic gravitational-wave transients and glitches, and to provide robust waveform reconstruction and characterization of the astrophysical signals. Here we study BayesWave's capabilities for rejecting glitches while assigning high confidence to detection candidates through analytic approximations to the Bayesian evidence. Analytic results are tested with numerical experiments by adding simulated gravitational-wave transient signals to LIGO data collected between 2009 and 2010 and found to be in good agreement.

  3. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M.

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system. PMID:26710335

  4. Can we confidently diagnose pilomatricoma with fine needle aspiration cytology?

    PubMed

    Wong, Yin-Ping; Masir, Noraidah; Sharifah, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical 'lymphadenopathy', and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. 'Ghost cells' were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic 'ghost cells' and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized. PMID:25892955

  5. Can We Confidently Diagnose Pilomatricoma with Fine Needle Aspiration Cytology?

    PubMed Central

    WONG, Yin-Ping; MASIR, Noraidah; SHARIFAH, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical ‘lymphadenopathy’, and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. ‘Ghost cells’ were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic ‘ghost cells’ and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized. PMID:25892955

  6. Behavior Detection using Confidence Intervals of Hidden Markov Models

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, Christopher H

    2009-01-01

    Markov models are commonly used to analyze real-world problems. Their combination of discrete states and stochastic transitions is suited to applications with deterministic and stochastic components. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a class of Markov model commonly used in pattern recognition. Currently, HMMs recognize patterns using a maximum likelihood approach. One major drawback with this approach is that data observations are mapped to HMMs without considering the number of data samples available. Another problem is that this approach is only useful for choosing between HMMs. It does not provide a criteria for determining whether or not a given HMM adequately matches the data stream. In this work, we recognize complex behaviors using HMMs and confidence intervals. The certainty of a data match increases with the number of data samples considered. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves are used to find the optimal threshold for either accepting or rejecting a HMM description. We present one example using a family of HMM's to show the utility of the proposed approach. A second example using models extracted from a database of consumer purchases provides additional evidence that this approach can perform better than existing techniques.

  7. Confidence in government and vaccination willingness in the USA.

    PubMed

    Mesch, Gustavo S; Schwirian, Kent P

    2015-06-01

    The most recent internationally widespread disease outbreak occurred during the flu season of 2009 and 2010. On April 2009, the first cases of influenza A (H1N1) (Popularly called, Swine Flu) were confirmed in the USA and UK following a novel virus that was first identified in Mexico. As the virus spread rapidly, the risk of morbidity and mortality increased in several countries. In this paper, we rely on the social cognitive theory of risk to assess the willingness of the US public to comply with vaccination and reduce the risk of sickness and death from the flu. We conduct a secondary data analysis of the Pew Research for the People and Press October 2009 and investigate the factors associated with willingness to take the swine flu vaccine (n = 1000). The findings indicate that the decision to take the swine flu vaccination was highly polarized across partisan lines. Controlling for education, income and demographic factors, the likelihood of taking the vaccine was associated with party identification. Individuals that identified themselves as Democrats were more likely to be willing to take the swine vaccine than individuals that identify themselves as Republicans and Independents. Confidence in the ability of the government to deal with the swine flu crisis seems to explain party identification differences in the willingness to take the vaccine. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  8. Concept of a (1-. cap alpha. ) performance confidence interval

    SciTech Connect

    Leong, H.H.; Johnson, G.R.; Bechtel, T.N.

    1980-01-01

    A multi-input, single-output system is assumed to be represented by some model. The distribution functions of the input and the output variables are considered to be at least obtainable through experimental data. Associated with the computer response of the model corresponding to given inputs, a conditional pseudoresponse set is generated. This response can be constructed by means of the model by using the simulated pseudorandom input variates from a neighborhood defined by a preassigned probability allowance. A pair of such pseudoresponse values can then be computed by a procedure corresponding to a (1-..cap alpha..) probability for the conditional pseudoresponse set. The range defined by such a pair is called a (1-..cap alpha..) performance confidence interval with respect to the model. The application of this concept can allow comparison of the merit of two models describing the same system, or it can detect a system change when the current response is out of the performance interval with respect to the previously identified model. 6 figures.

  9. Fuzzy confidence regions for the Taguchi capability index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramezani, Zeinab; Parchami, Abbas; Mashinchi, Mashaallah

    2011-06-01

    Most of the traditional methods for assessing the capability of manufacturing processes are dealing with crisp quality. In quality control, such as other statistical problems, we may confront imprecise concepts. One case is a situation in which specification limits (SLs) are imprecise. In this situation, the fuzzy process capability indices (PCIs) ? , ? and ? are necessary for measuring the fuzzy quality in an in-control process. These fuzzy capability indices are also helpful for comparing manufacturing processes with SLs. The fuzzy capability index ? is used to provide an assessment of the ability of the fuzzy process to be clustered around the target value. The emphasis on the use of ? over the other two fuzzy indices, ? and ? , is due to its definition that provides indications of both the process variability and deviation of process mean from a specified target. In this article, by using triangular fuzzy SLs, we present four approximate ? fuzzy confidence regions for the fuzzy PCI ? . A numerical example is given to show the performance of the method.

  10. Can we confidently diagnose pilomatricoma with fine needle aspiration cytology?

    PubMed

    Wong, Yin-Ping; Masir, Noraidah; Sharifah, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical 'lymphadenopathy', and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. 'Ghost cells' were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic 'ghost cells' and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized.

  11. Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

  12. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance. Research Report. ETS RR-07-03

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the nature of confidence in relation to cognitive abilities, personality traits, and metacognition. Confidence was measured as it was expressed in answers to each test item during the administration of reading and listening sections of the TOEFL® iBT. The confidence scores were correlated with the accuracy scores from the TOEFL…

  13. Public Confidence in Public Education: A Growing Concern in the 80's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    This literature review and analysis of the problem of building community confidence focuses on the work of the Phi Delta Kappa (PDK) Commission on Developing Public Confidence in Schools. Approaches to confidence building are categorized as: communications, concentrating on expanding communications one-way between school and the home; public…

  14. Enhancing School Connectedness: Teachers' Perceived Confidence in Positively Connecting Students to School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vidourek, Rebecca A.; King, Keith A.

    2014-01-01

    The present study examined teachers' perceived confidence in using strategies to positively connect students to school. A total of 419 teachers in Ohio elementary and middle schools were surveyed (60% response rate). Results indicated that teachers felt slightly confident to confident in their abilities to positively connect students to school.…

  15. 78 FR 64412 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-29

    .... Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has rescheduled to November 12 the Waste Confidence public meeting it... disposal (the proposed Waste Confidence rule) and the draft generic environmental impact statement (DGEIS... Waste Confidence Rule in the Federal Register on September 13, 2013 (78 FR 56776). On the same day,...

  16. Pre-Service Geography Teachers' Confidence in Geographical Subject Matter Knowledge and Teaching Geographical Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harte, Wendy; Reitano, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This research tracked the confidence of 16 undergraduate and postgraduate pre-service geography teachers as they completed a single semester, senior phase geography curriculum course. The study focused specifically on the pre-service teachers' confidence in geographical subject matter knowledge and their confidence in teaching geographical skills.…

  17. Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2011-01-01

    Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

  18. 37 CFR 10.57 - Preservation of confidences and secrets of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Preservation of confidences... confidences and secrets of a client. (a) “Confidence” refers to information protected by the attorney-client...) of this section, a practitioner shall not knowingly: (1) Reveal a confidence or secret of a...

  19. Development of a Questionnaire To Examine Confidence of Occupational Therapy Students during Fieldwork Experiences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Derdall, Michele; Olson, Peggy; Janzen, Wonita; Warren, Sharon

    2002-01-01

    An instrument to measure occupational therapy students' self-confidence during field work was tested with 70 Canadian students. Results demonstrates that confidence increases during placement and grows higher in later placements. Student characteristics and placement settings had no significant effect on confidence. (SK)

  20. An Integrated Understanding of Confidence and User Calibration in Information Systems Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Fengchun

    2012-01-01

    Dealing with uncertainty is a critical part of human decision-making and confidence reflects one's belief about the relative likelihood that various outcomes occur when making decision under uncertainty. Unfortunately, confidence often deviates from the actual quality of the decision, leading to under- or over-confidence. Calibration, the…

  1. Cheap Talk and Credibility: The Consequences of Confidence and Accuracy on Advisor Credibility and Persuasiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sah, Sunita; Moore, Don A.; MacCoun, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Is it possible to increase one's influence simply by behaving more confidently? Prior research presents two competing hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the…

  2. Male and Female College Students' College Majors: The Contribution of Basic Vocational Confidence and Interests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larson, Lisa M.; Wu, Tsui-Feng; Bailey, Donna C.; Borgen, Fred H.; Gasser, Courtney E.

    2010-01-01

    The first purpose was to determine if overall gender differences in basic confidence as measured by the Expanded Skills Confidence Inventory (ESCI) and basic interests as measured by the 2005 Strong Interest Inventory (SII) would be present within eight college major families. As expected, anticipated overall gender differences in confidence and…

  3. Judgments of Vocal Quality, Speech Fluency, and Confidence of Southern Black and White Speakers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Irwin, Ruth Beckey

    Comparative judgments of vocal quality, speech fluency, and confidence of black and white speakers in southern universities were tested to determine the interrelationships of (1) perception of vocal quality and judgment of confidence in the voice, (2) quality and fluency, and (3) speech fluency and judgment of confidence, and to ascertain the…

  4. Is simulation training effective in increasing podiatrists' confidence in foot ulcer management?

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Foot ulcers are a frequent reason for diabetes-related hospitalisation. Clinical training is known to have a beneficial impact on foot ulcer outcomes. Clinical training using simulation techniques has rarely been used in the management of diabetes-related foot complications or chronic wounds. Simulation can be defined as a device or environment that attempts to replicate the real world. The few non-web-based foot-related simulation courses have focused solely on training for a single skill or "part task" (for example, practicing ingrown toenail procedures on models). This pilot study aimed to primarily investigate the effect of a training program using multiple methods of simulation on participants' clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. Methods Sixteen podiatrists participated in a two-day Foot Ulcer Simulation Training (FUST) course. The course included pre-requisite web-based learning modules, practicing individual foot ulcer management part tasks (for example, debriding a model foot ulcer), and participating in replicated clinical consultation scenarios (for example, treating a standardised patient (actor) with a model foot ulcer). The primary outcome measure of the course was participants' pre- and post completion of confidence surveys, using a five-point Likert scale (1 = Unacceptable-5 = Proficient). Participants' knowledge, satisfaction and their perception of the relevance and fidelity (realism) of a range of course elements were also investigated. Parametric statistics were used to analyse the data. Pearson's r was used for correlation, ANOVA for testing the differences between groups, and a paired-sample t-test to determine the significance between pre- and post-workshop scores. A minimum significance level of p < 0.05 was used. Results An overall 42% improvement in clinical confidence was observed following completion of FUST (mean scores 3.10 compared to 4.40, p < 0.05). The lack of an overall significant change in knowledge

  5. 40 CFR Appendix C to Part 60 - Determination of Emission Rate Change

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... emission rate to the atmosphere. The method used is the Student's t test, commonly used to make inferences... and t>t′, where t′ is the critical value of t obtained from Table 1, then with 95% confidence the... occurred. Table 1 Degrees of freedom (n a=n b−2) t′ (95 percent confidence level) 2 2.920 3 2.353 4 2.132...

  6. 40 CFR Appendix C to Part 60 - Determination of Emission Rate Change

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... emission rate to the atmosphere. The method used is the Student's t test, commonly used to make inferences... and t>t′, where t′ is the critical value of t obtained from Table 1, then with 95% confidence the... occurred. Table 1 Degrees of freedom (n a=n b−2) t′ (95 percent confidence level) 2 2.920 3 2.353 4 2.132...

  7. 40 CFR Appendix C to Part 60 - Determination of Emission Rate Change

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... emission rate to the atmosphere. The method used is the Student's t test, commonly used to make inferences... and t>t′, where t′ is the critical value of t obtained from Table 1, then with 95% confidence the... occurred. Table 1 Degrees of freedom (n a=n b−2) t′ (95 percent confidence level) 2 2.920 3 2.353 4 2.132...

  8. Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Darren F.; Anderson, Dean P.; Barron, Mandy C.

    2016-01-01

    Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands. PMID:27721491

  9. Maximum likelihood algorithm using an efficient scheme for computing sensitivities and parameter confidence intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, P. C.; Klein, V.

    1984-01-01

    Improved techniques for estimating airplane stability and control derivatives and their standard errors are presented. A maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is developed which relies on an optimization scheme referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson scheme with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort compared to integrating the analytically-determined sensitivity equations or using a finite difference scheme. An aircraft estimation problem is solved using real flight data to compare MNRES with the commonly used modified Newton-Raphson technique; MNRES is found to be faster and more generally applicable. Parameter standard errors are determined using a random search technique. The confidence intervals obtained are compared with Cramer-Rao lower bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the nonlinearity of the cost function is an important factor in the relationship between Cramer-Rao bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique.

  10. Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina R.

    2012-01-01

    In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

  11. Bounded Confidence under Preferential Flip: A Coupled Dynamics of Structural Balance and Opinions

    PubMed Central

    Parravano, Antonio; Andina-Díaz, Ascensión; Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A.

    2016-01-01

    In this work we study the coupled dynamics of social balance and opinion formation. We propose a model where agents form opinions under bounded confidence, but only considering the opinions of their friends. The signs of social ties -friendships and enmities- evolve seeking for social balance, taking into account how similar agents’ opinions are. We consider both the case where opinions have one and two dimensions. We find that our dynamics produces the segregation of agents into two cliques, with the opinions of agents in one clique differing from those in the other. Depending on the level of bounded confidence, the dynamics can produce either consensus of opinions within each clique or the coexistence of several opinion clusters in a clique. For the uni-dimensional case, the opinions in one clique are all below the opinions in the other clique, hence defining a “left clique” and a “right clique”. In the two-dimensional case, our numerical results suggest that the two cliques are separated by a hyperplane in the opinion space. We also show that the phenomenon of unidimensional opinions identified by DeMarzo, Vayanos and Zwiebel (Q J Econ 2003) extends partially to our dynamics. Finally, in the context of politics, we comment about the possible relation of our results to the fragmentation of an ideology and the emergence of new political parties. PMID:27716815

  12. Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina

    2012-01-01

    In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.33.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history.This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

  13. Confidence and psychosis: a neuro-computational account of contingency learning disruption by NMDA blockade.

    PubMed

    Vinckier, F; Gaillard, R; Palminteri, S; Rigoux, L; Salvador, A; Fornito, A; Adapa, R; Krebs, M O; Pessiglione, M; Fletcher, P C

    2016-07-01

    A state of pathological uncertainty about environmental regularities might represent a key step in the pathway to psychotic illness. Early psychosis can be investigated in healthy volunteers under ketamine, an NMDA receptor antagonist. Here, we explored the effects of ketamine on contingency learning using a placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover design. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants performed an instrumental learning task, in which cue-outcome contingencies were probabilistic and reversed between blocks. Bayesian model comparison indicated that in such an unstable environment, reinforcement learning parameters are downregulated depending on confidence level, an adaptive mechanism that was specifically disrupted by ketamine administration. Drug effects were underpinned by altered neural activity in a fronto-parietal network, which reflected the confidence-based shift to exploitation of learned contingencies. Our findings suggest that an early characteristic of psychosis lies in a persistent doubt that undermines the stabilization of behavioral policy resulting in a failure to exploit regularities in the environment. PMID:26055423

  14. Confidence analysis of standard deviational ellipse and its extension into higher dimensional euclidean space.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bin; Shi, Wenzhong; Miao, Zelang

    2015-01-01

    Standard deviational ellipse (SDE) has long served as a versatile GIS tool for delineating the geographic distribution of concerned features. This paper firstly summarizes two existing models of calculating SDE, and then proposes a novel approach to constructing the same SDE based on spectral decomposition of the sample covariance, by which the SDE concept is naturally generalized into higher dimensional Euclidean space, named standard deviational hyper-ellipsoid (SDHE). Then, rigorous recursion formulas are derived for calculating the confidence levels of scaled SDHE with arbitrary magnification ratios in any dimensional space. Besides, an inexact-newton method based iterative algorithm is also proposed for solving the corresponding magnification ratio of a scaled SDHE when the confidence probability and space dimensionality are pre-specified. These results provide an efficient manner to supersede the traditional table lookup of tabulated chi-square distribution. Finally, synthetic data is employed to generate the 1-3 multiple SDEs and SDHEs. And exploratory analysis by means of SDEs and SDHEs are also conducted for measuring the spread concentrations of Hong Kong's H1N1 in 2009.

  15. On Statistical Methods for Common Mean and Reference Confidence Intervals in Interlaboratory Comparisons for Temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witkovský, Viktor; Wimmer, Gejza; Ďuriš, Stanislav

    2015-08-01

    We consider a problem of constructing the exact and/or approximate coverage intervals for the common mean of several independent distributions. In a metrological context, this problem is closely related to evaluation of the interlaboratory comparison experiments, and in particular, to determination of the reference value (estimate) of a measurand and its uncertainty, or alternatively, to determination of the coverage interval for a measurand at a given level of confidence, based on such comparison data. We present a brief overview of some specific statistical models, methods, and algorithms useful for determination of the common mean and its uncertainty, or alternatively, the proper interval estimator. We illustrate their applicability by a simple simulation study and also by example of interlaboratory comparisons for temperature. In particular, we shall consider methods based on (i) the heteroscedastic common mean fixed effect model, assuming negligible laboratory biases, (ii) the heteroscedastic common mean random effects model with common (unknown) distribution of the laboratory biases, and (iii) the heteroscedastic common mean random effects model with possibly different (known) distributions of the laboratory biases. Finally, we consider a method, recently suggested by Singh et al., for determination of the interval estimator for a common mean based on combining information from independent sources through confidence distributions.

  16. Impact of learning nutrition on medical students: their eating habits, knowledge and confidence in addressing dietary issues of patients.

    PubMed

    Shaikh, Shama; Dwivedi, Shraddha; Khan, Maroof A

    2011-12-01

    Nutrition is an important component in the treatment of acute and chronic diseases and is a cornerstone in strategies for disease prevention and health promotion. Despite the acknowledged importance of nutrition, there is evidence to indicate that the nutrition training of medical students is inadequate in both quality and quantity. The study aimed to know the dietary/eating habits of medical students, assess their knowledge on nutrition and to assess their confidence in addressing the dietary issues of patients. It was a cross-sectional study conducted on final year medical students, interns and postgraduate students of Moti Lal Nehru Government Medical College, Allahabad. The sampling was purposive and a total of 218 participated in the study voluntarily. Overall 55% of the students were less knowledgeable and only 45% of them were more knowledgeable. Most (62%) postgraduates were more knowledgeable (p < 0.001). Majority of them (89.9%) were having healthy eating habits. There was no association between their healthy habits and more knowledge (p > 0.340). Only 45.4% of them were confident in assessing the diet of patients and 44% of them were confident in recommending change of diet in patients. However this study shows no association between increase in the level of knowledge and confidence levels of the students (p > 0.339 and p > 0.109) suggesting that we need to incorporate innovative teaching methods to increase their confidence. Most students (79%) said that the medical curriculum was either just enough or not enough in preparing them to deal with the dietary issues of patients and 55% of them were of the opinion that the faculty should be trained in nutrition. The study results intend to stimulate active consideration of proper role of nutrition learning in medical education.

  17. Implementation and testing of a sensor-netting algorithm for early warning and high confidence C/B threat detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruber, Thomas; Grim, Larry; Fauth, Ryan; Tercha, Brian; Powell, Chris; Steinhardt, Kristin

    2011-05-01

    Large networks of disparate chemical/biological (C/B) sensors, MET sensors, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) sensors reporting to various command/display locations can lead to conflicting threat information, questions of alarm confidence, and a confused situational awareness. Sensor netting algorithms (SNA) are being developed to resolve these conflicts and to report high confidence consensus threat map data products on a common operating picture (COP) display. A data fusion algorithm design was completed in a Phase I SBIR effort and development continues in the Phase II SBIR effort. The initial implementation and testing of the algorithm has produced some performance results. The algorithm accepts point and/or standoff sensor data, and event detection data (e.g., the location of an explosion) from various ISR sensors (e.g., acoustic, infrared cameras, etc.). These input data are preprocessed to assign estimated uncertainty to each incoming piece of data. The data are then sent to a weighted tomography process to obtain a consensus threat map, including estimated threat concentration level uncertainty. The threat map is then tested for consistency and the overall confidence for the map result is estimated. The map and confidence results are displayed on a COP. The benefits of a modular implementation of the algorithm and comparisons of fused / un-fused data results will be presented. The metrics for judging the sensor-netting algorithm performance are warning time, threat map accuracy (as compared to ground truth), false alarm rate, and false alarm rate v. reported threat confidence level.

  18. Post choice information integration as a causal determinant of confidence: Novel data and a computational account.

    PubMed

    Moran, Rani; Teodorescu, Andrei R; Usher, Marius

    2015-05-01

    Confidence judgments are pivotal in the performance of daily tasks and in many domains of scientific research including the behavioral sciences, psychology and neuroscience. Positive resolution i.e., the positive correlation between choice-correctness and choice-confidence is a critical property of confidence judgments, which justifies their ubiquity. In the current paper, we study the mechanism underlying confidence judgments and their resolution by investigating the source of the inputs for the confidence-calculation. We focus on the intriguing debate between two families of confidence theories. According to single stage theories, confidence is based on the same information that underlies the decision (or on some other aspect of the decision process), whereas according to dual stage theories, confidence is affected by novel information that is collected after the decision was made. In three experiments, we support the case for dual stage theories by showing that post-choice perceptual availability manipulations exert a causal effect on confidence-resolution in the decision followed by confidence paradigm. These finding establish the role of RT2, the duration of the post-choice information-integration stage, as a prime dependent variable that theories of confidence should account for. We then present a novel list of robust empirical patterns ('hurdles') involving RT2 to guide further theorizing about confidence judgments. Finally, we present a unified computational dual stage model for choice, confidence and their latencies namely, the collapsing confidence boundary model (CCB). According to CCB, a diffusion-process choice is followed by a second evidence-integration stage towards a stochastic collapsing confidence boundary. Despite its simplicity, CCB clears the entire list of hurdles.

  19. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1988-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z = (z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y(0)=(y sub 1(0),...,y sub D(0)) knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y(0). The data space Y containing y(0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x (e.g., energy or dissipation rate), Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. CSI is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface. Neither the heat flow nor the energy bound is strong enough to permit estimation of B(r) at single points on the CMB, but the heat flow bound permits estimation of uniform averages of B(r) over discs on the CMB, and both bounds permit weighted disc-averages with continous weighting kernels. Both bounds also permit estimation of low-degree Gauss coefficients at the CMB. The heat flow bound resolves them up to degree 8 if the crustal field at satellite altitudes must be treated as a systematic error, but can resolve to degree 11 under the most favorable statistical treatment of the crust. These two limits produce circles of confusion on the CMB with diameters of 25 deg and 19 deg respectively.

  20. The stress field in Europe: optimal orientations with confidence limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carafa, M. M. C.; Barba, S.

    2013-05-01

    In this study, we modify and extend a data analysis technique to determine the stress orientations between data clusters by adding an additional constraint governing the probability algorithm. We apply this technique to produce a map of the maximum horizontal compressive stress (SHmax) orientations in the greater European region (including Europe, Turkey and Mediterranean Africa). Using the World Stress Map data set release 2008, we obtain analytical probability distributions of the directional differences as a function of the angular distance, θ. We then multiply the probability distributions that are based on pre-averaged data within θ < 3° of the interpolation point and determine the maximum likelihood estimate of the SHmax orientation. At a given distance, the probability of obtaining a particular discrepancy decreases exponentially with discrepancy. By exploiting this feature observed in the World Stress Map release 2008 data set, we increase the robustness of our SHmax determinations. For a reliable determination of the most likely SHmax orientation, we require that 90 per cent confidence limits be less than ±60° and a minimum of three clusters, which is achieved for 57 per cent of the study area, with uncertainties of less than ±30° for 19 per cent of the area. When the data density exceeds 0.8 × 10-3 data km-2, our method provides a means of reproducing significant local patterns in the stress field. Several mountain ranges in the Mediterranean display 90° changes in the SHmax orientation from their crests (which often experience normal faulting) and their foothills (which often experience thrust faulting). This pattern constrains the tectonic stresses to a magnitude similar to that of the topographic stresses.

  1. Inference by eye: reading the overlap of independent confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Cumming, Geoff

    2009-01-30

    When 95 per cent confidence intervals (CIs) on independent means do not overlap, the two-tailed p-value is less than 0.05 and there is a statistically significant difference between the means. However, p for non-overlapping 95 per cent CIs is actually considerably smaller than 0.05: If the two CIs just touch, p is about 0.01, and the intervals can overlap by as much as about half the length of one CI arm before p becomes as large as 0.05. Keeping in mind this rule-that overlap of half the length of one arm corresponds approximately to statistical significance at p = 0.05-can be helpful for a quick appreciation of figures that display CIs, especially if precise p-values are not reported. The author investigated the robustness of this and similar rules, and found them sufficiently accurate when sample sizes are at least 10, and the two intervals do not differ in width by more than a factor of 2. The author reviewed previous discussions of CI overlap and extended the investigation to p-values other than 0.05 and 0.01. He also studied 95 per cent CIs on two proportions, and on two Pearson correlations, and found similar rules apply to overlap of these asymmetric CIs, for a very broad range of cases. Wider use of figures with 95 per cent CIs is desirable, and these rules may assist easy and appropriate understanding of such figures.

  2. Improved LC-MS/MS Spectral Counting Statistics by Recovering Low Scoring Spectra Matched to Confidently Identified Peptide Sequences

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Jianying; Schepmoes, Athena A.; Zhang, Xu; Moore, Ronald J.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Lee, Jung Hwa; Camp, David G.; Smith, Richard D.; Qian, Weijun

    2010-09-02

    Spectral counting has become a popular semi-quantitative method for LC-MS/MS based proteome quantification; however, this methodology is often not reliable when proteins are identified by a small number of spectra. Here we present a simple strategy to improve spectral counting based quantification for low abundance proteins by recovering low quality or low scoring spectra for confidently identified peptides. In this approach, stringent data filtering criteria were initially applied to achieve confident peptide identifications with low false discovery rate (e.g., <1%) after LC-MS/MS analysis and database search by SEQUEST. Then, all low scoring MS/MS spectra that match to this set of confidently identified peptides were recovered, leading to more than 20% increase of total identified spectra. The validity of these recovered spectra was assessed by the parent ion mass measurement error distribution, retention time distribution, and by comparing the individual low score and high score spectra that correspond to the same peptides. The results support that the recovered low scoring spectra have similar confidence levels in peptide identifications as the spectra passing the initial stringent filter. The application of this strategy of recovering low scoring spectra significantly improved the spectral count quantification statistics for low abundance proteins, as illustrated in the identification of mouse brain region specific proteins.

  3. Verification& Validation (V&V) Guidelines and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC): Basis for an Investment Strategy

    SciTech Connect

    Logan, R W; Nitta, C K

    2002-07-17

    This paper represents an attempt to summarize our thoughts regarding various methods and potential guidelines for Verification and Validation (V&V) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) that we have observed within the broader V&V community or generated ourselves. Our goals are to evaluate these various methods, to apply them to computational simulation analyses, and integrate them into methods for Quantitative Certification techniques for the nuclear stockpile. We describe the critical nature of high quality analyses with quantified V&V, and the essential role of V&V and UQ at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after V&V has contributed to UQ at confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. UQ of performance and safety margins for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence (QRC) and we summarize with a brief description of how these V&V generated QRC quantities fold into a Value-Engineering methodology for evaluating investment strategies. V&V contributes directly to the decision process for investment, through quantification of uncertainties at confidence for margin and reliability assessments. These contributions play an even greater role in a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) environment than ever before, when reliance on simulation in the absence of the ability to perform nuclear testing is critical.

  4. The effect of certain rater roles on confidence in physician's assistant ratings.

    PubMed

    Dowaliby, F J

    1977-11-01

    Previous research on the psychology of confidence suggests that the more confident a rater is in his judgment the more accurate is his rating. The purpose of the present study was to investigate possible differences among raters in their confidence in competency ratings which they had provided. Results indicated significant differences due to the rater's interpersonal role with the ratee and the particular aspect of competence rated. Greater simple structure of competence ratings when adjusted for rater confidence is also shown. Rater confidence is discussed as an index for rater selection and as a moderator variable for competence ratings.

  5. Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador

    2014-05-01

    In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making.

  6. Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador

    2014-05-01

    In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. PMID:24650632

  7. Military confidence building on the Korean Peninsula: possible first steps toward cooperation

    SciTech Connect

    Vannoni, M.

    1997-05-01

    The Korean Peninsula is one of the world`s most tense military confrontational sites. Nearly 2 million North Korean, South Korean, and U.S. troops face each other along the 255-km long military demarcation line. Confidence building measures (CBMs), particularly military ones, that address the security needs of both countries could decrease the danger of conflict and help create an environment where a peace regime might be negotiated. In spite of the present high level of mutual distrust, steps can still be taken to prepare for future development and implementation of CBMs. This paper defines some simple and specific first steps toward CBMs that might be useful on the Korean Peninsula.

  8. Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

    2015-01-01

    The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

  9. A systematic review of measures assessing mothers' knowledge, attitudes, confidence and satisfaction towards breastfeeding.

    PubMed

    Chambers, Julie A; McInnes, Rhona J; Hoddinott, Pat; Alder, Elizabeth M

    2007-11-01

    In order to support breastfeeding interventions, there is a need for objective, reliable, valid and sensitive measures of factors related to breastfeeding. Publications on the development and testing of tools measuring mothers' knowledge, attitudes, confidence or self-efficiency and/or satisfaction towards breastfeeding were systematically reviewed. Twenty-two papers evaluating 13 self-report measures matched our selection criteria, and were critically appraised by two independent reviewers. All scales were tested with pregnant women or breastfeeding mothers. The 13 measures varied markedly in ease of completion and cultural appropriateness and none reached our highest level of evidence grading. Four of the measures had sufficient evidence to support their use, including the Breastfeeding Attrition Prediction Tool, the Modified Breastfeeding Evaluation Scale, the Breastfeeding Self-Efficiency Scale and the Iowa Infant Feeding Attitude Scale. There has been a tendency to develop new measures rather than evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of existing measures, particularly in different populations. PMID:18062138

  10. Statistical damage detection method for frame structures using a confidence interval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Weiming; Zhu, Hongping; Luo, Hanbin; Xia, Yong

    2010-03-01

    A novel damage detection method is applied to a 3-story frame structure, to obtain statistical quantification control criterion of the existence, location and identification of damage. The mean, standard deviation, and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) are applied to detect damage information according to statistical process control (SPC) theory. It is concluded that the detection is insignificant with the mean and EWMA because the structural response is not independent and is not a normal distribution. On the other hand, the damage information is detected well with the standard deviation because the influence of the data distribution is not pronounced with this parameter. A suitable moderate confidence level is explored for more significant damage location and quantification detection, and the impact of noise is investigated to illustrate the robustness of the method.

  11. Optical brightness variations in a sample of nineteen radio-quiet quasi-stellar objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, P. L.

    Monitoring of the optical brightnesses was done to study the characteristics of the variability of the RQQSOs for comparison with the much larger sample of quasi-stellar radio sources (QSRSs). A variability index (V.I.) was computed to facilitate numerical comparisons and to check for correlation between the extent of variability and other properties of the quasistellar objects (QSOs). Of the nineteen RQQSOs studied, eight did not show evidence of variability at the confidence level of at least 95 percent. Eight objects (PHL 3632, PHL 1186, PHL 1226, BSO 1, B 154, B 234, B 312, and BSO 11) were variable at a confidence level greater than 95 percent. An additional three objects showed variability at a confidence level greater than 99.9 percent. These strongly varying objects were PHL 1194, B 46, and B 114. The proportion of RQQSOs which show variability is similar to that of the QSRs.

  12. Confidence building measures at sea:opportunities for India and Pakistan.

    SciTech Connect

    Vohra, Ravi Bhushan Rear Admiral; Ansari, Hasan Masood Rear Admiral

    2003-12-01

    The sea presents unique possibilities for implementing confidence building measures (CBMs) between India and Pakistan that are currently not available along the contentious land borders surrounding Jammu and Kashmir. This is due to the nature of maritime issues, the common military culture of naval forces, and a less contentious history of maritime interaction between the two nations. Maritime issues of mutual concern provide a strong foundation for more far-reaching future CBMs on land, while addressing pressing security, economic, and humanitarian needs at sea in the near-term. Although Indian and Pakistani maritime forces currently have stronger opportunities to cooperate with one another than their counterparts on land, reliable mechanisms to alleviate tension or promote operational coordination remain non-existent. Therefore, possible maritime CBMs, as well as pragmatic mechanisms to initiate and sustain cooperation, require serious examination. This report reflects the unique joint research undertaking of two retired Senior Naval Officers from both India and Pakistan, sponsored by the Cooperative Monitoring Center of the International Security Center at Sandia National Laboratories. Research focuses on technology as a valuable tool to facilitate confidence building between states having a low level of initial trust. Technical CBMs not only increase transparency, but also provide standardized, scientific means of interacting on politically difficult problems. Admirals Vohra and Ansari introduce technology as a mechanism to facilitate consistent forms of cooperation and initiate discussion in the maritime realm. They present technical CBMs capable of being acted upon as well as high-level political recommendations regarding the following issues: (1) Delimitation of the maritime boundary between India and Pakistan and its relationship to the Sir Creek dispute; (2) Restoration of full shipping links and the security of ports and cargos; (3) Fishing within

  13. On the Use of Experimental Methods to Improve Confidence in Educed Impedance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, Michael G.; Watson, Willie R.

    2011-01-01

    Results from impedance eduction methods developed by NASA Langley Research Center are used throughout the acoustic liner community. In spite of recent enhancements, occasional anomalies persist with these methods, generally at frequencies where the liner produces minimal attenuation. This investigation demonstrates an experimental approach to educe impedance with increased confidence over a desired frequency range, by combining results from successive tests with different cavity depths. A series of tests is conducted with three wire-mesh facesheets, for which the results should be weakly dependent on source sound pressure level and mean grazing flow speed. First, a raylometer is used to measure the DC flow resistance of each facesheet. These facesheets are then mounted onto a frame and a normal incidence tube is used to determine their respective acoustic impedance spectra. A comparison of the acoustic resistance component with the DC flow resistance for each facesheet is used to validate the measurement process. Next, each facesheet is successively mounted onto three frames with different cavity depths, and a grazing flow impedance tube is used to educe their respective acoustic impedance spectra with and without mean flow. The no-flow results are compared with those measured in the normal incidence tube to validate the impedance eduction method. Since the anti-resonance frequency varies with cavity depth, each sample provides robust results over a different frequency range. Hence, a combination of results can be used to determine the facesheet acoustic resistance. When combined with the acoustic reactance, observed to be weakly dependent on the source sound pressure level and grazing flow Mach number, the acoustic impedance can be educed with increased confidence. Representative results of these tests are discussed, and the complete database is available in electronic format upon request.

  14. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in cluster randomized trials.

    PubMed

    Ukoumunne, Obioha C

    2002-12-30

    This study compared different methods for assigning confidence intervals to the analysis of variance estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient (rho). The context of the comparison was the use of rho to estimate the variance inflation factor when planning cluster randomized trials. The methods were compared using Monte Carlo simulations of unbalanced clustered data and data from a cluster randomized trial of an intervention to improve the management of asthma in a general practice setting. The coverage and precision of the intervals were compared for data with different numbers of clusters, mean numbers of subjects per cluster and underlying values of rho. The performance of the methods was also compared for data with Normal and non-Normally distributed cluster specific effects. Results of the simulations showed that methods based upon the variance ratio statistic provided greater coverage levels than those based upon large sample approximations to the standard error of rho. Searle's method provided close to nominal coverage for data with Normally distributed random effects. Adjusted versions of Searle's method to allow for lack of balance in the data generally did not improve upon it either in terms of coverage or precision. Analyses of the trial data, however, showed that limits provided by Thomas and Hultquist's method may differ from those of the other variance ratio statistic methods when the arithmetic mean differs markedly from the harmonic mean cluster size. The simulation results demonstrated that marked non-Normality in the cluster level random effects compromised the performance of all methods. Confidence intervals for the methods were generally wide relative to the underlying size of rho suggesting that there may be great uncertainty associated with sample size calculations for cluster trials where large clusters are randomized. Data from cluster based studies with sample sizes much larger than those typical of cluster randomized trials are

  15. Knowledge and confidence of South African health care providers regarding post-rape care: a cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In South Africa, providers are trained on post-rape care by a multitude of organisations, resulting in varied knowledge and skills. In 2007, a national training curriculum was developed and piloted in the country. The objectives of this paper are to identify the factors associated with higher knowledge and confidence in providers at the commencement of the training and to reflect on the implications of this for training and other efforts being made to improve services. Methods A cross-sectional study using questionnaires was conducted. Providers who attended the training provided information on socio-demographic background, service provision, training, attitudes, and confidence. Knowledge was measured through multiple choice questions. Bi-variable analysis was carried out in order to test for factors associated with high knowledge and confidence. Variables with a p value of <0.20 were then included in backward selection to develop the final multivariable models. Results Of the 124 providers, 70% were female and 68% were nurses. The mean age of the providers was 41.7 (24 – 64) years. About 60% of providers were trained in providing post-rape care. The median percentage knowledge score was 37.3% (0% - 65.3%) and the median percentage confidence score was 75.4% (10% - 100%). Having a more appropriate attitude towards rape was associated with higher knowledge, while older providers and nurses had lower odds of having high knowledge levels. Working in a crisis centre in the facility, having examined a survivor in the last 3 months, and seeing more than 60% of survivors who came to the facility were associated with higher confidence. Higher confidence was not associated with greater knowledge. Conclusion The study indicated that although confidence was high, there was poor knowledge in providers, even in those who were previously trained. Knowledge seems to be critically dependant on attitude, which highlights the need for educating providers on rape and

  16. Challenges of Sustaining the International Space Station Through 2020 and Beyond: Reassessing Confidence Targets for System Availability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lutomski, Michael G.; Carter-Journet, Katrina; Anderson, Leif; Box, Neil; Harrington, Sean; Jackson, David; DiFilippo, Denise

    2012-01-01

    modeled functions and actual subsystem operations. Perhaps most importantly, it is acknowledged that conservative confidence targets per subsystem are currently accepted. This presentation will also discuss how subsystem confidence targets may be relaxed based on calculating the level of uncertainty for each corresponding ORU-function. The presentation will conclude with the various strengths and limitations for implementing the analytical approach in sustaining the ISS through end of life; 2020 and beyond.

  17. 'Losing my touch': decline in self-reported confidence in performing practical procedures in consultant oncologists.

    PubMed

    Thomson, A H; Foy, C J W; Benstead, K

    2006-08-01

    This study aimed to compare the confidence of oncology consultants and specialist registrars (SpRs) in the performance of practical procedures, to contrast this with confidence in other areas of practice and to determine at what grade they felt most confident. Questionnaires were sent to all 57 oncology consultants and SpRs in the South-West region. Respondents scored confidence on a five-point Likert scale. The response rate was 70%. SpRs were significantly more confident in cardiopulmonary resuscitation (p = 0.003) and central line insertion (p = 0.006). Consultants were significantly more confident in developing management plans (p = 0.001) and performing committee work (p = 0.002). Only 6% of consultants felt most confident performing practical procedures as a consultant, and were less confident about these than other tasks (p = 0.001). Some 86% of SpRs considered they were more confident performing practical procedures as senior house officers (SHOs). In conclusion, self-reported confidence in performing practical procedures declines during career progression in oncology. This raises questions about the teaching and supervision of these procedures. If there is a greater emphasis on a consultant-provided service, their educational needs will need to be recognized and retraining or outsourcing of these procedures to other specialties may be necessary. PMID:16973448

  18. The effect of confidence and method of questioning on eyewitness testimony.

    PubMed

    Venter, A; Louw, D A

    2005-06-01

    Very often eyewitnesses are perceived as being accurate due to the confidence in the accuracy of their own testimony. The confidence displayed by an eyewitness may possibly be increased by the method of questioning used by legal professionals and police. The present study examines the confidence-accuracy relationship and the effect the method of questioning (open-ended versus closed-ended questions) may have on the confidence of eyewitnesses. The sample of 412 respondents consisted of scholars (11 to 14-year-olds), university students, the public and Police College students. A significant relationship between memory accuracy and confidence was found for more than 70% of the questions. Closed-ended questions provided a significantly higher rate of accuracy than open-ended questions. A significantly larger proportion of respondents to the closed-ended questions were more confident about their answers than those who responded to the open-ended questions. PMID:16082872

  19. Improving Competence and Confidence With Evidence-Based Practice Among Nurses: Outcomes of a Quality Improvement Project.

    PubMed

    Bissett, Kim M; Cvach, Maria; White, Kathleen M

    2016-01-01

    Evidence-based practice (EBP) is an integral part of quality patient care, reduction in practice variation, and increased nursing autonomy. Yet, EBP is not a consistent standard in many organizations. Although many barriers to EBP have been cited, this project focused on poor knowledge of the EBP process and a lack of available EBP mentors or experts. A bundled set of educational interventions to improve the EBP confidence and self-efficacy of nurses was developed and implemented. Comparison of pre/post data showed improvement in all categories and questions. Committee members expressed greater confidence with the process and comfort level with leading EBP projects following the intervention. The educational bundle used in this project can serve as a model for others looking to develop competent EBP mentors within their organization. PMID:27648900

  20. Concern or confidence? Adolescents' identity capital and future worry in different school contexts.

    PubMed

    Tikkanen, Jenni

    2016-01-01

    This present study investigated the roles identity capital and school's socio-economic status have on adolescent worry about future education, employment, and social status. The 354 participants were 14- to 15-year-old students from affluent (56.8%) and disadvantaged (43.2%) Finnish lower secondary schools. Structural equation modelling was used to test the hypothesis that a higher level of family-related identity capital is connected to a lower level of future worry, and that this connection is mediated through intrapersonal forms of identity capital, specifically academic self-concept and general self-efficacy. Adolescent future worry was also examined across school status with an independent samples t-test. The findings suggest that, in the relatively equal societal context in Finland, adolescents are rather confident about their future education, employment, and social status regardless of the socio-economic status of the school they attend, and when their level of identity capital is high the future worry decreases further.