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Sample records for 95-percent confidence level

  1. IET. Aerial view of project, 95 percent complete. Camera facing ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    IET. Aerial view of project, 95 percent complete. Camera facing east. Left to right: stack, duct, mobile test cell building (TAN-624), four-rail track, dolly. Retaining wall between mobile test building and shielded control building (TAN-620) just beyond. North of control building are tank building (TAN-627) and fuel-transfer pump building (TAN-625). Guard house at upper right along exclusion fence. Construction vehicles and temporary warehouse in view near guard house. Date: June 6, 1955. INEEL negative no. 55-1462 - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Area North, Scoville, Butte County, ID

  2. Confidence sets for optimal factor levels of a response surface.

    PubMed

    Wan, Fang; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Han, Yang

    2016-12-01

    Construction of confidence sets for the optimal factor levels is an important topic in response surfaces methodology. In Wan et al. (2015), an exact (1-α) confidence set has been provided for a maximum or minimum point (i.e., an optimal factor level) of a univariate polynomial function in a given interval. In this article, the method has been extended to construct an exact (1-α) confidence set for the optimal factor levels of response surfaces. The construction method is readily applied to many parametric and semiparametric regression models involving a quadratic function. A conservative confidence set has been provided as an intermediate step in the construction of the exact confidence set. Two examples are given to illustrate the application of the confidence sets. The comparison between confidence sets indicates that our exact confidence set is better than the only other confidence set available in the statistical literature that guarantees the (1-α) confidence level.

  3. Prospective Teachers' Problem Solving Skills and Self-Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gursen Otacioglu, Sena

    2008-01-01

    The basic objective of the research is to determine whether the education that prospective teachers in different fields receive is related to their levels of problem solving skills and self-confidence. Within the mentioned framework, the prospective teachers' problem solving and self-confidence levels have been examined under several variables.…

  4. Simulator effects on cognitive skills and confidence levels.

    PubMed

    Brannan, Jane D; White, Anne; Bezanson, Judy L

    2008-11-01

    Use of a human patient simulator (HPS) as a tool for experiential learning provides a mechanism by which students can participate in clinical decision making, practice skills, and observe outcomes from clinical decisions. The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of two instructional methods to teach specific nursing education content, acute myocardial infarction, on junior-level nursing students' cognitive skills and confidence. The instructional methods included an interactive approach using the HPS method, compared with traditional classroom lecture. Results of this study suggest that use of a teaching strategy involving the HPS method made a positive difference in the nursing students' ability to answer questions on a test of cognitive skills. Confidence levels were not found to be significantly enhanced by use of the HPS method.

  5. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C; LaFreniere, D; Macintosh, B; Doyon, R

    2008-06-02

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  6. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C

    2007-11-07

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  7. 40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart Kk of... - Data Quality Objective and Lower Confidence Limit Approaches for Alternative Capture Efficiency...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... section 2, the specific DQO criterion is that the width of the two-sided 95 percent confidence interval of... average measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval for the... measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval, expressed as...

  8. 40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart Kk of... - Data Quality Objective and Lower Confidence Limit Approaches for Alternative Capture Efficiency...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... section 2, the specific DQO criterion is that the width of the two-sided 95 percent confidence interval of... average measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval for the... measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval, expressed as...

  9. Confidence intervals for low-level, paired counting

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, W.E.

    1999-11-01

    Fong and Alvarez (1997) make clear the lack of precision at MDA for paired counting. Confidence intervals provide a way of expressing a measurement process that lacks precision. Neyman-Pearson principles are briefly discussed and 95% confidence intervals of the form [0, {number_sign}{number_sign}.{number_sign}{number_sign}] are presented. Use is made of the fact that the probability of the difference of two random variables, each with a Poisson distribution, can be expressed in terms of modified Bessel functions of integral order and elementary functions. The validity of the values is discussed.

  10. Mathematics Confidence, Grade-Level Choice, Gender, and Age in Preservice Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pearson, Lesley Knoth

    2012-01-01

    Problem: The purpose of the study was to determine whether teachers' mathematics confidence influenced their choice of grade level. The study also examined whether there was a difference in teachers' mathematics confidence based on their age or gender. Method: A 6-item Mathematics Survey was distributed to 83 single-and multiple-subject preservice…

  11. Measuring Confidence Levels of Male and Female Students in Open Access Enabling Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atherton, Mirella

    2015-01-01

    The study of confidence was undertaken at the University of Newcastle with students selecting science courses at two campuses. The students were enrolled in open access programs and aimed to gain access to undergraduate studies in various disciplines at University. The "third person effect" was used to measure the confidence levels of…

  12. A Comparison of Artificial Subtle Expressions with Human-like Expressions on Expressing Confidence Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komatsu, Takanori; Kobayashi, Kazuki; Yamada, Seiji; Funakoshi, Kotaro; Nakano, Mikio

    Expressing the confidence level of a system's suggestions by using speech sounds is an important cue to users of the system for perceiving how likely it is for the suggestions to be correct. We assume that expressing confidence levels by using human-like expressions would cause users to have a poorer impression of the systems than if artificial subtle expressions (ASEs) were used when the quality of the presented information does not match the expressed confidence level. We confirmed that this assumption was correct by conducting a psychological experiment.

  13. Effect of CALIPSO Cloud Aerosol Discrimination (CAD) Confidence Levels on Observations of Aerosol Properties near Clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, Weidong; Marshak, Alexander; Varnai, Tamas; Liu, Zhaoyan

    2012-01-01

    CALIPSO aerosol backscatter enhancement in the transition zone between clouds and clear sky areas is revisited with particular attention to effects of data selection based on the confidence level of cloud-aerosol discrimination (CAD). The results show that backscatter behavior in the transition zone strongly depends on the CAD confidence level. Higher confidence level data has a flatter backscatter far away from clouds and a much sharper increase near clouds (within 4 km), thus a smaller transition zone. For high confidence level data it is shown that the overall backscatter enhancement is more pronounced for small clear-air segments and horizontally larger clouds. The results suggest that data selection based on CAD reduces the possible effects of cloud contamination when studying aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds.

  14. An Examination of Teacher's Occupational Burnout Levels in Terms of Organizational Confidence and Some Other Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caglar, Caglar

    2011-01-01

    An effort is made in this research to determine the correlations between primary school teachers' levels of confidence in their organization and their burnout levels and other variables. The research population is composed of teachers teaching in the primary schools located in the city center of Adiyaman in 2009-2010 academic year whereas the…

  15. Confidence interval estimation for sensitivity at a fixed level of specificity for combined biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Tian, Lili

    2013-05-01

    In diagnostic studies, we often need to combine several biomarkers to increase the diagnostic accuracy. For continuous-scaled biomarkers or diagnostic tests, it is often of interest to estimate the confidence interval for sensitivity at a fixed level of specificity. Despite the fact that there exist many literature reports on confidence interval estimation of sensitivity at a fixed level of specificity for a single marker, the inference procedures for sensitivity at a fixed level of specificity for combined markers have rarely been addressed. This article fills this gap by investigating a generalized variable procedure for this purpose. The performance of the proposed generalized approach is numerically studied. For the optimal linear combination proposed by Su and Liu ( 1993 ), simulation study demonstrates that the proposed approach generally can provide confidence intervals with excellent coverage probabilities. The robustness of the proposed approach is investigated for categorical data. In the end, the proposed approach is applied to a real-life data set.

  16. A Fuzzy Logic Algorithm to Assign Confidence Levels to Heart and Respiratory Rate Time Series

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-03

    and respiratory rate (RR) vital-sign time-series data by assigning a confidence level to the data points while they are measured as a continuous data...of the signals. The assigned confidence levels are based on the reliability of each HR and RR measurement as well as the relationship between them...7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89)Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39-18 298-102 USAPPC V1.00 IOP PUBLISHING PHYSIOLOGICAL MEASUREMENT Physiol

  17. Motor onset and diagnosis in Huntington disease using the diagnostic confidence level.

    PubMed

    Liu, Dawei; Long, Jeffrey D; Zhang, Ying; Raymond, Lynn A; Marder, Karen; Rosser, Anne; McCusker, Elizabeth A; Mills, James A; Paulsen, Jane S

    2015-12-01

    Huntington disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by motor dysfunction, cognitive deterioration, and psychiatric symptoms, with progressive motor impairments being a prominent feature. The primary objectives of this study are to delineate the disease course of motor function in HD, to provide estimates of the onset of motor impairments and motor diagnosis, and to examine the effects of genetic and demographic variables on the progression of motor impairments. Data from an international multisite, longitudinal observational study of 905 prodromal HD participants with cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) repeats of at least 36 and with at least two visits during the followup period from 2001 to 2012 was examined for changes in the diagnostic confidence level from the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale. HD progression from unimpaired to impaired motor function, as well as the progression from motor impairment to diagnosis, was associated with the linear effect of age and CAG repeat length. Specifically, for every 1-year increase in age, the risk of transition in diagnostic confidence level increased by 11% (95% CI 7-15%) and for one repeat length increase in CAG, the risk of transition in diagnostic confidence level increased by 47% (95% CI 27-69%). Findings show that CAG repeat length and age increased the likelihood of the first onset of motor impairment as well as the age at diagnosis. Results suggest that more accurate estimates of HD onset age can be obtained by incorporating the current status of diagnostic confidence level into predictive models.

  18. Tables for Trials and Failures with PD for Designated Confidence Level

    SciTech Connect

    Leach, Janice

    2014-02-01

    Two attachments are provided for performance testing of sensors and other Physical Protection System (PPS) components. The first attachment is a table of Trials and Failures, giving Probability of Detection (PD) for a designated confidence level and sorted by trials. The second attachment contains the same data, sorted by failures.

  19. The Impact of an Experiential/Feedback-Oriented Curricula on Levels of Confidence of Dental Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yanoff, Jay M.; And Others

    The impact of an experiential/feedback oriented curricula on levels of confidence of dental students was examined. The study was conducted in the TEAM (Training in Expanded Auxiliary Management) program at the University of Pennsylvania School of Dental Medicine. The subjects were 31 senior dental students (fourth year) who had completed a…

  20. Association Between Time Spent Interpreting, Level of Confidence and Accuracy of Screening Mammography

    PubMed Central

    Carney, Patricia A.; Bogart, Andy; Geller, Berta M.; Haneuse, Sebastian; Kerlikowske, Karla; Buist, Diana SM; Smith, Robert; Rosenberg, Robert; Yankaskas, Bonnie C.; Onega, Tracy; Miglioretti, Diana L.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To examine the effect of time spent viewing images and level of confidence on a screening mammography test set on interpretive performance. Materials and Methods Radiologists from six mammography registries participated in the study and were randomized to interpret one of four test sets and complete 12 survey questions. Each test set had 109 cases of digitized four-view screening film-screen mammograms with prior comparison screening views. Viewing time for each case was defined as the cumulative time spent viewing all mammographic images before recording which visible feature, if any, was the “most significant finding”. Log-linear regression fit via GEE was used to test the effect of viewing time and level of confidence in the interpretation on test set sensitivity and false-positive rate. Results 119 radiologists completed a test set and contributed data on 11,484 interpretations. Radiologists spent more time viewing cases that had significant findings or for which they had less confidence in interpretation. Each additional minute of viewing time increased the probability of a true positive interpretation among cancer cases by 1.12 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.19, p<0.001), regardless of confidence in the assessment. Among radiologists who were ‘very confident’ in their assessment, each additional minute of viewing time increased the adjusted risk of a false positive interpretation among non-cancer cases by 1.42 (95% CI 1.21, 1.68), and this viewing-time effect diminished with decreasing confidence. Conclusions Longer interpretation times and higher levels of confidence in the interpretation are both associated with higher sensitivity and false positive rates in mammography screening. PMID:22451568

  1. Establishing library 'key skill' confidence levels amongst a cohort of nursing students at an English university.

    PubMed

    Franks, Helen; McAlonan, Catherine

    2007-07-01

    This article presents the findings of a small-scale preliminary survey of one cohort of students studying towards a Diploma/BSc in Nursing. The survey sought to establish student characteristics and indicate their confidence levels using identified key library facilities. From questionnaires (N=64), the data confirmed the 'typicality' of the student group illuminating a breadth of prior experiences in terms of students' prior learning and perceived confidence in using library resources. Whilst a number of respondents indicated confidence using identified library resources, a significant number of students (typically over one third n=14+) indicated that they lacked confidence in and did not utilise library facilities. This suggests that they may not be using the resources to full advantage. Over half of the respondents (53% n=23) had not attended library skills training within the last two years and 9% (n=4) had not used the library although they were completing assignments. This survey points to gaps in student confidence, and by implication, use of key library skills, particularly those involving electronic resources. At a time of widening participation and the explosion of information technology, this survey is a timely reminder of the need to revisit key skill development for nursing students studying in higher education.

  2. Is fear perception special? Evidence at the level of decision-making and subjective confidence

    PubMed Central

    Mobbs, Dean; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    Fearful faces are believed to be prioritized in visual perception. However, it is unclear whether the processing of low-level facial features alone can facilitate such prioritization or whether higher-level mechanisms also contribute. We examined potential biases for fearful face perception at the levels of perceptual decision-making and perceptual confidence. We controlled for lower-level visual processing capacity by titrating luminance contrasts of backward masks, and the emotional intensity of fearful, angry and happy faces. Under these conditions, participants showed liberal biases in perceiving a fearful face, in both detection and discrimination tasks. This effect was stronger among individuals with reduced density in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region linked to perceptual decision-making. Moreover, participants reported higher confidence when they accurately perceived a fearful face, suggesting that fearful faces may have privileged access to consciousness. Together, the results suggest that mechanisms in the prefrontal cortex contribute to making fearful face perception special. PMID:27405614

  3. Motor onset and diagnosis in Huntington disease using the diagnostic confidence level

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Dawei; Long, Jeffrey D.; Zhang, Ying; Raymond, Lynn A.; Marder, Karen; Rosser, Anne; McCusker, Elizabeth A.; Mills, James A.; Paulsen, Jane S.

    2015-01-01

    Background Huntington disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by motor dysfunction, cognitive deterioration, and psychiatric symptoms, with progressive motor impairments being a prominent feature. The primary objectives of this study are to delineate the disease course of motor function in HD, to provide estimates of the onset of motor impairments and motor diagnosis, and to examine the effects of genetic and demographic variables on the progression of motor impairments. Methods Data from an international multisite, longitudinal observational study of 905 prodromal HD participants with cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) repeats of at least 36 and with at least two visits during the followup period from 2001 to 2012 was examined for changes in the diagnostic confidence level from the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale. Results HD progression from unimpaired to impaired motor function, as well as the progression from motor impairment to diagnosis, were associated with the linear effect of age and CAG repeat length. Specifically, for every 1-year increase in age, the risk of transition in diagnostic confidence level increased by 11% (95% CI: 7-15%) and for one repeat length increase in CAG, the risk of transition in diagnostic confidence level increased by 47% (95% CI: 27-69%). Conclusions Findings show that CAG repeat length and age increased the likelihood of the first onset of motor impairment as well as the age at diagnosis. Results suggest that more accurate estimates of HD onset age can be obtained by incorporating the current status of diagnostic confidence level into predictive models. PMID:26410751

  4. A simple Bayesian approach to quantifying confidence level of adverse event incidence proportion in small samples.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fang

    2016-01-01

    In both clinical development and post-marketing of a new therapy or a new treatment, incidence of an adverse event (AE) is always a concern. When sample sizes are small, large sample-based inferential approaches on an AE incidence proportion in a certain time period no longer apply. In this brief discussion, we introduce a simple Bayesian framework to quantify, in small sample studies and the rare AE case, (1) the confidence level that the incidence proportion of a particular AE p is over or below a threshold, (2) the lower or upper bounds on p with a certain level of confidence, and (3) the minimum required number of patients with an AE before we can be certain that p surpasses a specific threshold, or the maximum allowable number of patients with an AE after which we can no longer be certain that p is below a certain threshold, given a certain confidence level. The method is easy to understand and implement; the interpretation of the results is intuitive. This article also demonstrates the usefulness of simple Bayesian concepts when it comes to answering practical questions.

  5. A new thermographic NDT for condition monitoring of electrical components using ANN with confidence level analysis.

    PubMed

    Huda, A S N; Taib, S; Ghazali, K H; Jadin, M S

    2014-05-01

    Infrared thermography technology is one of the most effective non-destructive testing techniques for predictive faults diagnosis of electrical components. Faults in electrical system show overheating of components which is a common indicator of poor connection, overloading, load imbalance or any defect. Thermographic inspection is employed for finding such heat related problems before eventual failure of the system. However, an automatic diagnostic system based on artificial neural network reduces operating time, human efforts and also increases the reliability of system. In the present study, statistical features and artificial neural network (ANN) with confidence level analysis are utilized for inspection of electrical components and their thermal conditions are classified into two classes namely normal and overheated. All the features extracted from images do not produce good performance. Features having low performance reduce the diagnostic performance. The study reveals the performance of each feature individually for selecting the suitable feature set. In order to find the individual feature performance, each feature of thermal image was used as input for neural network and the classification of condition types were used as output target. The multilayered perceptron network using Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm was used as classifier. The performances were determined in terms of percentage of accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, false positive and false negative. After selecting the suitable features, the study introduces the intelligent diagnosis system using suitable features as inputs of neural network. Finally, confidence percentage and confidence level were used to find out the strength of the network outputs for condition monitoring. The experimental result shows that multilayered perceptron network produced 79.4% of testing accuracy with 43.60%, 12.60%, 21.40, 9.20% and 13.40% highest, high, moderate, low and lowest confidence level respectively.

  6. An Approach for Web Service Selection Based on Confidence Level of Decision Maker

    PubMed Central

    Khezrian, Mojtaba; Jahan, Ali; Wan Kadir, Wan Mohd Nasir; Ibrahim, Suhaimi

    2014-01-01

    Web services today are among the most widely used groups for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Service selection is one of the most significant current discussions in SOA, which evaluates discovered services and chooses the best candidate from them. Although a majority of service selection techniques apply Quality of Service (QoS), the behaviour of QoS-based service selection leads to service selection problems in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). In the existing works, the confidence level of decision makers is neglected and does not consider their expertise in assessing Web services. In this paper, we employ the VIKOR (VIšekriterijumskoKOmpromisnoRangiranje) method, which is absent in the literature for service selection, but is well-known in other research. We propose a QoS-based approach that deals with service selection by applying VIKOR with improvement of features. This research determines the weights of criteria based on user preference and accounts for the confidence level of decision makers. The proposed approach is illustrated by an example in order to demonstrate and validate the model. The results of this research may facilitate service consumers to attain a more efficient decision when selecting the appropriate service. PMID:24897426

  7. The Effects of Relevance and Confidence Strategies on Writing Apprehension, Motivational Levels, and Writing Performance on Undergraduate Composition Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spain, Linda Monk

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated writing apprehension, motivational levels, and writing performance of 68 undergraduates enrolled in four freshman composition courses during one semester. Participants in the treatment groups received relevance, confidence, or a combination of relevance and confidence motivational strategies based on Keller's ARCS model. In…

  8. Automatic image orientation detection via confidence-based integration of low-level and semantic cues.

    PubMed

    Luo, Jiebo; Boutell, Matthew

    2005-05-01

    Automatic image orientation detection for natural images is a useful, yet challenging research topic. Humans use scene context and semantic object recognition to identify the correct image orientation. However, it is difficult for a computer to perform the task in the same way because current object recognition algorithms are extremely limited in their scope and robustness. As a result, existing orientation detection methods were built upon low-level vision features such as spatial distributions of color and texture. Discrepant detection rates have been reported for these methods in the literature. We have developed a probabilistic approach to image orientation detection via confidence-based integration of low-level and semantic cues within a Bayesian framework. Our current accuracy is 90 percent for unconstrained consumer photos, impressive given the findings of a psychophysical study conducted recently. The proposed framework is an attempt to bridge the gap between computer and human vision systems and is applicable to other problems involving semantic scene content understanding.

  9. Problem Solving Ability Confidence Levels among Student Teachers after a Semester in the Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krug, Kevin; Love, John; Mauzey, Ed; Dixon, Wayne

    2015-01-01

    Subjective confidence for solving classroom problems while instructing students in appropriate academic material is crucial for effective teaching. One way to develop problem solving confidence may result from the semester most education majors spend in the classroom as student teachers. The problem solving inventory (PSI) was given to university…

  10. Confidence intervals for return levels for the peaks-over-threshold approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schendel, Thomas; Thongwichian, Rossukon

    2017-01-01

    The peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach is an important alternative to the annual block maxima (ABM) method in flood frequency analysis. POT requires the mathematical description of both, the number of exceedances over the threshold as well as the values of those exceedances. Regardless the method, estimates of extreme flood events are typically associated with a large range of uncertainty, which is usually showcased by appropriate confidence intervals (CIs). However, existing methods to estimate CIs for return levels for the POT approach have mostly neglected its dual-domain character and focused on the distribution of the magnitudes only. We present here a customization of two methods, the Profile Likelihood (PL) and test inversion bootstrap (TIB), which account for the dual-domain structure of POT. Both, PL and TIB, are in the framework of ABM already successfully employed for estimating CIs of extreme flood events. A comparison of the performance of the estimated CIs (in terms of coverage error) of the PL, TIB, and percentile bootstrap is done. As result, it is seen that both the lower and upper boundary of the CIs are strongly underestimated for the percentile bootstrap approach. A similar effect (although in a much less pronounced way) can be observed for PL. The performance of the TIB is usually superior to the percentile bootstrap and PL and yielded reasonable estimates for the CIs for large return periods.

  11. A better confidence interval for the sensitivity at a fixed level of specificity for diagnostic tests with continuous endpoints.

    PubMed

    Shan, Guogen

    2017-02-01

    For a diagnostic test with continuous measurement, it is often important to construct confidence intervals for the sensitivity at a fixed level of specificity. Bootstrap-based confidence intervals were shown to have good performance as compared to others, and the one by Zhou and Qin (2005) was recommended as the best existing confidence interval, named the BTII interval. We propose two new confidence intervals based on the profile variance method and conduct extensive simulation studies to compare the proposed intervals and the BTII intervals under a wide range of conditions. An example from a medical study on severe head trauma is used to illustrate application of the new intervals. The new proposed intervals generally have better performance than the BTII interval.

  12. Relationship between Teachers' ICT Competency, Confidence Level, and Satisfaction toward ICT Training Programmes: A Case Study among Postgraduate Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tasir, Zaidatun; Abour, Khawla Mohammed El Amin; Halim, Noor Dayana Abd; Harun, Jamalludin

    2012-01-01

    There are three main variables that would make the integration of ICT tools as an easy process. Those three variables are teachers' ICT competency, teachers' confidence level in using ICT, and teachers' satisfaction on ICT training programmes. This study investigated the relationships among these three variables and measured the levels of the…

  13. Understanding the Impact of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Training on Participants' Perceived Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nordheim, Shawn M.

    2013-01-01

    This pre-experimental, participatory action research study investigated the impact of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) training on participants' perceived confidence and willingness to initiate CPR. Parents of seventh and eighth grade students were surveyed. Parent participants were asked to watch the American Heart Association's Family and…

  14. Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals for extreme low-level, paired counting.

    PubMed

    Potter, W E

    1999-02-01

    Neyman-Pearson principles are briefly discussed and 95% confidence intervals of the form [0, ##.##] are presented. Use is made of the fact that the probability of the difference of two random variables, each with a Poisson distribution, can be expressed in terms of modified Bessel functions of integral order and elementary functions. The validity of the values is discussed.

  15. Cluster chemical ionization for improved confidence level in sample identification by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Fialkov, Alexander B; Amirav, Aviv

    2003-01-01

    Upon the supersonic expansion of helium mixed with vapor from an organic solvent (e.g. methanol), various clusters of the solvent with the sample molecules can be formed. As a result of 70 eV electron ionization of these clusters, cluster chemical ionization (cluster CI) mass spectra are obtained. These spectra are characterized by the combination of EI mass spectra of vibrationally cold molecules in the supersonic molecular beam (cold EI) with CI-like appearance of abundant protonated molecules, together with satellite peaks corresponding to protonated or non-protonated clusters of sample compounds with 1-3 solvent molecules. Like CI, cluster CI preferably occurs for polar compounds with high proton affinity. However, in contrast to conventional CI, for non-polar compounds or those with reduced proton affinity the cluster CI mass spectrum converges to that of cold EI. The appearance of a protonated molecule and its solvent cluster peaks, plus the lack of protonation and cluster satellites for prominent EI fragments, enable the unambiguous identification of the molecular ion. In turn, the insertion of the proper molecular ion into the NIST library search of the cold EI mass spectra eliminates those candidates with incorrect molecular mass and thus significantly increases the confidence level in sample identification. Furthermore, molecular mass identification is of prime importance for the analysis of unknown compounds that are absent in the library. Examples are given with emphasis on the cluster CI analysis of carbamate pesticides, high explosives and unknown samples, to demonstrate the usefulness of Supersonic GC/MS (GC/MS with supersonic molecular beam) in the analysis of these thermally labile compounds. Cluster CI is shown to be a practical ionization method, due to its ease-of-use and fast instrumental conversion between EI and cluster CI, which involves the opening of only one valve located at the make-up gas path. The ease-of-use of cluster CI is analogous

  16. The ICT Level of Confidence of Course Specialists in Distance Education: The Polytechnic University of the Philippines Experience

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sumande, Caroline T.; Castolo, Carmencita L.; Comendador, Benilda Eleanor V.

    2016-01-01

    The study addressed two questions: what is the ICT level of confidence of the course specialists handling Open University classes, and to what extent do course specialists integrated ICT applications such as word processing, electronic spread sheet, presentation software, YouTube and etc. in their OUS classes? The instruments were administered to…

  17. The Effect of Performer Gender, Performer Skill Level, and Opponent Gender on Self-Confidence in a Competitive Situation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Evelyn G.

    1990-01-01

    Studies relationships among sex difference, performance expectation, and actual performance in video game competition between female and male subjects. Finds that self-confidence of females is not lower than that of males after competing against a good opponent, indicating that performance expectancies may be more related to skill level than to…

  18. Trauma Simulation Training Increases Confidence Levels in Prehospital Personnel Performing Life-Saving Interventions in Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Archita D.; Meurer, David A.; Shuster, Jonathan J.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. Limited evidence is available on simulation training of prehospital care providers, specifically the use of tourniquets and needle decompression. This study focused on whether the confidence level of prehospital personnel performing these skills improved through simulation training. Methods. Prehospital personnel from Alachua County Fire Rescue were enrolled in the study over a 2- to 3-week period based on their availability. Two scenarios were presented to them: a motorcycle crash resulting in a leg amputation requiring a tourniquet and an intoxicated patient with a stab wound, who experienced tension pneumothorax requiring needle decompression. Crews were asked to rate their confidence levels before and after exposure to the scenarios. Timing of the simulation interventions was compared with actual scene times to determine applicability of simulation in measuring the efficiency of prehospital personnel. Results. Results were collected from 129 participants. Pre- and postexposure scores increased by a mean of 1.15 (SD 1.32; 95% CI, 0.88–1.42; P < 0.001). Comparison of actual scene times with simulated scene times yielded a 1.39-fold difference (95% CI, 1.25–1.55) for Scenario 1 and 1.59 times longer for Scenario 2 (95% CI, 1.43–1.77). Conclusion. Simulation training improved prehospital care providers' confidence level in performing two life-saving procedures. PMID:27563467

  19. High-fidelity medical simulation training improves medical students’ knowledge and confidence levels in septic shock resuscitation

    PubMed Central

    Vattanavanit, Veerapong; Kawla-ied, Jarernporn; Bhurayanontachai, Rungsun

    2017-01-01

    Background Septic shock resuscitation bundles have poor compliance worldwide partly due to a lack of knowledge and clinical skills. High-fidelity simulation-based training is a new teaching technology in our faculty which may improve the performance of medical students in the resuscitation process. However, since the efficacy of this training method in our institute is limited, we organized an extra class for this evaluation. Purpose The aim was to evaluate the effect on medical students’ knowledge and confidence levels after the high-fidelity medical simulation training in septic shock management. Methods A retrospective study was performed in sixth year medical students during an internal medicine rotation between November 2015 and March 2016. The simulation class was a 2-hour session of a septic shock management scenario and post-training debriefing. Knowledge assessment was determined by a five-question pre-test and post-test examination. At the end of the class, the students completed their confidence evaluation questionnaire. Results Of the 79 medical students, the mean percentage score ± standard deviation (SD) of the post-test examination was statistically significantly higher than the pre-test (66.83%±19.7% vs 47.59%±19.7%, p<0.001). In addition, the student mean percentage confidence level ± SD in management of septic shock was significantly better after the simulation class (68.10%±12.2% vs 51.64%±13.1%, p<0.001). They also strongly suggested applying this simulation class to the current curriculum. Conclusion High-fidelity medical simulation improved the students’ knowledge and confidence in septic shock resuscitation. This simulation class should be included in the curriculum of the sixth year medical students in our institute. PMID:28053558

  20. Enhancement of Medical Interns' Levels of Clinical Skills Competence and Self-Confidence Levels via Video iPods: Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Designing and delivering evidence-based medical practice for students requires careful consideration from medical science educators. Social Web (Web 2.0) applications are a part of today’s educational technology milieu; however, empirical research is lacking to support the impact of interactive Web 2.0 mobile applications on medical educational outcomes. Objectives The aim of our study was to determine whether instructional videos provided by iPod regarding female and male urinary catheter insertion would increase students’ confidence levels and enhance skill competencies. Methods We conducted a prospective study with medical trainee intern (TI) participants: 10 control participants (no technological intervention) and 11 intervention participants (video iPods). Before taking part in a skills course, they completed a questionnaire regarding previous exposure to male and female urinary catheterization and their level of confidence in performing the skills. Directly following the questionnaire, medical faculty provided a 40-minute skills demonstration in the Advanced Clinical Skills Centre (ACSC) laboratory at the University of Auckland, New Zealand. All participants practiced the skills following the demonstrations and were immediately evaluated by the same faculty using an assessment rubric. Following the clinical skill evaluation, participants completed a postcourse questionnaire regarding skill confidence levels. At the end of the skills course, the intervention group were provided video iPods and viewed a male and a female urinary catheterization video during the next 3 consecutive months. The control group did not receive educational technology interventions during the 3-month period. At the end of 3 months, participants completed a follow-up questionnaire and a clinical assessment of urinary catheterization skills at the ACSC lab. Results The results indicate a decline in skill competency over time among the control group for both male and female

  1. Confidence levels in the detection of oil spills from satellite imagery: from research to the operational use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferraro, Guido; Trieschmann, Olaf; Perkovic, Marko; Tarchi, Dario

    2012-09-01

    Detected oil spills are usually classified according to confidence levels. Such levels are supposed to describe the probability that an observed dark feature in the satellite image is related to the actual presence of an oil spill. The Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) derived oil spill detection probability estimation has been explored as an intrinsic aspect of oil spill classification, which fundamentally computes the likelihood that the detected dark area is related to an oil spill. However, the SAR based probability estimation should be integrated with additional criteria in order to become a more effective tool for the End Users. As example, the key information for the final users is not the confidence level of the detection "per se" but the alert (i.e. the potential impact of the pollution and the possibility to catch the polluter red-handed) that such detection generates. This topic was deeply discussed in the framework of the R and D European Group of Experts on remote sensing Monitoring of marine Pollution (EGEMP) and a paper was published in 2010. The newly established EMSA CleanSeaNet service (2nd generation) provides the alert level connected to the detection of a potential oil spill in a satellite image based on the likelihood of being an oil spill in combination with impact and culprit information.

  2. An Analysis of Training Effects on School Personnel's Knowledge, Attitudes, Comfort, and Confidence Levels toward Educating Students about HIV/AIDS in Pennsylvania

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deutschlander, Sharon

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the training effects on school personnel's knowledge, attitudes, comfort, and confidence levels toward educating students about HIV/AIDS in Pennsylvania. The following four research questions were explored: (a) What is the knowledge, attitudes, confidence, and comfort levels of school personnel regarding…

  3. Analysis of confidence level scores from an ROC study: comparison of three mammographic systems for detection of simulated calcifications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lai, Chao-Jen; Shaw, Chris C.; Whitman, Gary J.; Yang, Wei T.; Dempsey, Peter J.

    2005-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to compare the detection performance of three different mammography systems: screen/film (SF) combination, a-Si/CsI flat-panel (FP-), and charge-coupled device (CCD-) based systems. A 5-cm thick 50% adipose/50% glandular breast tissue equivalent slab phantom was used to provide an uniform background. Calcium carbonate grains of three different size groups were used to simulate microcalcifications (MCs): 112-125, 125-140, and 140-150 μm overlapping with the uniform background. Calcification images were acquired with the three mammography systems. Digital images were printed on hardcopy films. All film images were displayed on a mammographic viewer and reviewed by 5 mammographers. The visibility of the MC was rated with a 5-point confidence rating scale for each detection task, including the negative controls. Scores were averaged over all readers for various detectors and size groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed and the areas under the ROC curves (Az"s) were computed for various imaging conditions. The results shows that (1) the FP-based system performed significantly better than the SF and CCD-based systems for individual size groups using ROC analysis (2) the FP-based system also performed significantly better than the SF and CCD-based systems for individual size groups using averaged confidence scale, and (3) the results obtained from the Az"s were largely correlated with these from confidence level scores. However, the correlation varied slightly among different imaging conditions.

  4. Analysis of High Cadence In Situ Solar Wind Ionic Composition Data Using Wavelet Power Spectra Confidence Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmondson, J. K.; Lynch, B. J.; Lepri, S. T.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    The variability inherent in solar wind composition has implications for the variability of the physical conditions in its coronal source regions, providing constraints on models of coronal heating and solar wind generation. We present a generalized prescription for constructing a wavelet power significance measure (confidence level) for the purpose of characterizing the effects of missing data in high cadence solar wind ionic composition measurements. We describe the data gaps present in the 12 minute Advanced Composition Explorer/Solar Wind Ionic Composition Spectrometer observations of O7 +/O6 + during 2008. The decomposition of the in situ observations into "good measurement" and "no-measurement" signals allows us to evaluate the performance of a filler signal, i.e., various prescriptions for filling the data gaps. We construct Monte Carlo simulations of synthetic O7 +/O6 + composition data and impose the actual data gaps that exist in the observations in order to investigate two different filler signals: one, a linear interpolation between neighboring good data points, and two, the constant mean value of the measured data. Applied to these synthetic data plus filler signal combinations, we quantify the ability of the power spectra significance level procedure to reproduce the ensemble-averaged time-integrated wavelet power per scale of an ideal case, i.e., the synthetic data without imposed data gaps. Finally, we present the wavelet power spectra for the O7 +/O6 + data using the confidence levels derived from both the mean value and linear interpolation data gap filling signals and discuss the results.

  5. Exploring the Relationship between K-12 Public School Teachers' Conceptions of Assessment and Their Classroom Assessment Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ludwig, Naomi Wayne

    2014-01-01

    Studies have shown that teachers' beliefs influence their assessment practices. However, the overarching framework of those beliefs in relation to teachers' classroom assessment confidence has been largely unexamined. This research explored teachers' conceptions of assessment and their confidence regarding the implementation of sound classroom…

  6. Computing Confidence Limits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Biggs, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    Confidence Limits Program (CLP) calculates upper and lower confidence limits associated with observed outcome of N independent trials with M occurrences of event of interest. Calculates probability of event of interest for confidence levels of 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, 96, 97, 98, and 99 percent. Provides graphical presentation of all limits and how they relate to maximum-likelihood value. Written in IBM PC BASIC.

  7. The undergraduate preparation of dentists: Confidence levels of final year dental students at the School of Dentistry in Cardiff.

    PubMed

    Gilmour, A S M; Welply, A; Cowpe, J G; Bullock, A D; Jones, R J

    2016-09-23

    Objective To investigate the self-reported confidence and preparedness of final year undergraduate students in undertaking a range of clinical procedures.Methods A questionnaire was distributed to final year dental students at Cardiff University, six months prior to graduation. Respondents rated their confidence in undertaking 39 clinical procedures using a 5-point scale (1 = can undertake on own with confidence, 5 = unable to undertake). Students also responded yes/no to experiencing four difficulties and to three statements about general preparedness.Results 71% (N = 51) responded of which 55% (N = 28) were female. Over half reported being 'anxious that the supervisor was not helping enough' (57%) and 'relying heavily on supervisor for help' (53%). Eighty percent 'felt unprepared for the clinical work presented' and gender differences were most notable here (male: 65% N = 33; females: 93% N = 47). Mean confidence scores were calculated for each clinical procedure (1 = lowest; 5 = highest). Confidence was highest in performing 'simple scale' and 'fissure sealant' (mean-score = 5). Lowest scores were reported for 'surgical extractions involving a flap (mean-score = 2.28)', 'simple surgical procedures' (mean-score = 2.58) and the 'design/fit/adjustment of orthodontic appliances' (mean-score = 2.88).Conclusions As expected complex procedures that were least practised scored the lowest in overall mean confidence. Gender differences were noted in self-reported confidence for carrying out treatment unsupervised and feeling unprepared for clinical work.

  8. Confidence building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roederer, Juan G.

    Many conferences are being held on confidence building in many countries. Usually they are organized and attended by political scientists and science policy specialists. A remarkable exception, in which the main brainstorming was done by “grass roots” geophysicists, nuclear physicists, engineers and ecologists, was a meeting in July at St. John's College in Santa Fe, N. Mex.The aim of the conference Technology-Based Confidence Building: Energy and Environment was to survey programs of international cooperation in pertinent areas of mutual concern to all nations and to identify new initiatives that could contribute to enhanced international stability, with emphasis on cooperation between the U.S. and U.S.S.R.

  9. Developing a two-tiered instrument with confidence levels for assessing students' conceptions of Direct Current circuits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabah, Saed Ahmad

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a two-tier revised instrument (DIRECT-TTC) for measuring students understanding of Direct Current (DC) circuits and identifying their alternative conceptions. Another main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between students' understanding of DC circuits and their confidence in their answers. The revised instrument consists of 15 two-tier items with a confidence scale. Both the Rasch analysis and students' interviews were used in validating the instrument and obtaining evidences for the validity of inferences. Through a two-stage quantitative and qualitative validation process using both conventional statistics and Rasch modeling, the results indicate that the instrument is both valid and reliable. The results show a statistically significant association between students' answers to the first- tier questions and explanations, r = .65 (p< .01, N = 214). The second-tier questions provided substantial information about students' conceptions of DC circuits beyond that provided by the first-tier questions. This research shows that the more able students with regard to the construct of understanding DC circuits are more likely to be confident in their answers, r = +.39 (p< .01). Several Rasch calibrations and correlation analyses indicate that the more difficult items are associated with less confidence in the correct answers. On the other hand, the results show no statistically significant relationship between item difficulty and students' confidence specifically in their incorrect answers. The difficult items with high confidence on incorrect answers exhibit the stronger alternative conceptions of DC circuits. The alternative conceptions of voltage and resistance are among the very strong alternative conceptions of DC circuits. Implications for researchers and teachers as well as recommendations for future research are presented.

  10. Effect of Minimum Cell Sizes and Confidence Interval Sizes for Special Education Subgroups on School-Level AYP Determinations. Synthesis Report 61

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Mary Ann; Gong, Brian; Marion, Scott

    2006-01-01

    This study addresses three questions: First, considering the full group of students and the special education subgroup, what is the likely effect of minimum cell size and confidence interval size on school-level Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) determinations? Second, what effects do the changing minimum cell sizes have on inclusion of special…

  11. Entry-Level Athletic Trainers' Self-Confidence in Clinical Skill Preparedness for Treating Athletic and Emergent Settings Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morin, Gary E.; Misasi, Sharon; Davis, Charles; Hannah, Corey; Rothbard, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    Context: Clinical education is an important component of athletic training education. Concern exists regarding whether clinical experience adequately prepares students to perform professional skills after graduation, particularly with patients in emerging settings. Objective: To determine the confidence levels of athletic training graduates in…

  12. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  13. Predicting Systemic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falke, Stephanie Inez

    2009-01-01

    Using a mixed method approach, this study explored which educational factors predicted systemic confidence in master's level marital and family therapy (MFT) students, and whether or not the impact of these factors was influenced by student beliefs and their perception of their supervisor's beliefs about the value of systemic practice. One hundred…

  14. Deep XMM observations of Draco rule out at the 99 per cent confidence level a dark matter decay origin for the 3.5 keV line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeltema, Tesla; Profumo, Stefano

    2016-06-01

    We searched for an X-ray line at energies around 3.5 keV in deep, ˜1.6 Ms XMM-Newton observations of the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Draco. No line was found in either the Metal Oxide Semi-conductor (MOS) or the p-type/n-type semiconductor (PN) detectors. The data in this energy range are completely consistent with a single, unfolded power-law modelling the particle background, which dominates at these energies, plus instrumental lines; the addition of a ˜3.5 keV line feature gives no improvement to the fit. The corresponding upper limit on the line flux rules out a dark matter decay origin for the 3.5 keV line found in observations of clusters of galaxies and in the Galactic Centre at greater than 99 per cent confidence level.

  15. Measuring Vaccine Confidence: Introducing a Global Vaccine Confidence Index

    PubMed Central

    Larson, Heidi J; Schulz, William S; Tucker, Joseph D; Smith, David M D

    2015-01-01

    Background. Public confidence in vaccination is vital to the success of immunisation programmes worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of vaccine confidence is therefore of great importance for global public health. Few published studies permit global comparisons of vaccination sentiments and behaviours against a common metric. This article presents the findings of a multi-country survey of confidence in vaccines and immunisation programmes in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom (UK) – these being the first results of a larger project to map vaccine confidence globally. Methods. Data were collected from a sample of the general population and from those with children under 5 years old against a core set of confidence questions. All surveys were conducted in the relevant local-language in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the UK. We examine confidence in immunisation programmes as compared to confidence in other government health services, the relationships between confidence in the system and levels of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for vaccine hesitancy, ultimate vaccination decisions, and their variation based on country contexts and demographic factors. Results. The numbers of respondents by country were: Georgia (n=1000); India (n=1259); Pakistan (n=2609); UK (n=2055); Nigerian households (n=12554); and Nigerian health providers (n=1272). The UK respondents with children under five years of age were more likely to hesitate to vaccinate, compared to other countries. Confidence in immunisation programmes was more closely associated with confidence in the broader health system in the UK (Spearman’s ρ=0.5990), compared to Nigeria (ρ=0.5477), Pakistan (ρ=0.4491), and India (ρ=0.4240), all of which ranked confidence in immunisation programmes higher than confidence in the broader health system. Georgia had the highest rate of vaccine refusals (6 %) among those who reported initial hesitation. In all other countries surveyed most

  16. Protocol for a national audit on self-reported confidence levels, training requirements and current practice among trainee doctors in the UK: The Trainees Own Perception of Delivery of Care in Diabetes (TOPDOC) Study

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background As the incidence and prevalence of diabetes increases across the world, resource pressures require doctors without specialist training to provide care for people with diabetes. In the UK, national standards have been set to ensure quality diabetes care from diagnosis to the management of complications. In a multi-centre pilot study, we have demonstrated a lack of confidence among UK trainee doctors in managing diabetes. Suboptimal confidence was identified in a number of areas, including the management of diabetes emergencies. A national survey would clarify whether the results of our pilot study are representative and reproducible. Methods/Design Target cohort: All postgraduate trainee doctors in the UK. Domains Studied: The self reported online survey questionnaire has 5 domains: (1) confidence levels in the diagnosis and management of diabetes, (2) working with diabetes specialists, (3) perceived adequacy of training in diabetes (4) current practice in optimising glycaemic control and (5) perceived barriers to seeking euglycaemia. Assessment tools: Self-reported confidence is assessed using the 'Confidence Rating' (CR) scale for trainee doctors developed by the Royal College of Physicians. This scale has four points - ('not confident' (CR1), 'satisfactory but lacking confidence' (CR2), 'confident in some cases (CR3) and 'fully confident in most cases' (CR4). Frequency of aspects of day-to-day practice is assessed using a six-point scale. Respondents have a choice of 'always' (100%), 'almost always' (80-99%), 'often' (50-79%), 'not very often' (20-49%) and 'rarely' (5-19%) or never (less than 5%). Discussion It is anticipated that the results of this national study will clarify confidence levels and current practice among trainee doctors in the provision of care for people with diabetes. The responses will inform efforts to enhance postgraduate training in diabetes, potentially improving the quality of care for people with diabetes. PMID:20659349

  17. Optimally combined confidence limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janot, P.; Le Diberder, F.

    1998-02-01

    An analytical and optimal procedure to combine statistically independent sets of confidence levels on a quantity is presented. This procedure does not impose any constraint on the methods followed by each analysis to derive its own limit. It incorporates the a priori statistical power of each of the analyses to be combined, in order to optimize the overall sensitivity. It can, in particular, be used to combine the mass limits obtained by several analyses searching for the Higgs boson in different decay channels, with different selection efficiencies, mass resolution and expected background. It can also be used to combine the mass limits obtained by several experiments (e.g. ALEPH, DELPHI, L3 and OPAL, at LEP 2) independently of the method followed by each of these experiments to derive their own limit. A method to derive the limit set by one analysis is also presented, along with an unbiased prescription to optimize the expected mass limit in the no-signal-hypothesis.

  18. Confidence Trick: The Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2014-01-01

    The frequent misinterpretation of the nature of confidence intervals by students has been well documented. This article examines the problem as an aspect of the learning of mathematical definitions and considers the tension between parroting mathematically rigorous, but essentially uninternalized, statements on the one hand and expressing…

  19. Beginning Teachers' Confidence before and after Induction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turley, Steve; Powers, Kristin; Nakai, Karen

    2006-01-01

    Levels of confidence of novice teachers were investigated pre- and post-induction program. In sum, 119 beginning teachers completed a New Teacher Confidence Survey on 28 teaching performance behaviors. There was a statistically significant confidence gain from pre- to postinduction on 20 of 28 teaching behaviors. Statistically significant gains…

  20. Mapping Self-Confidence Levels of Nurses in Their Provision of Nursing Care to Others with Alcohol and Tobacco Dependence, Using Rasch Scaling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackman, Ian; de Crespigny, Charlotte; Parker, Steve

    2006-01-01

    This study seeks to identify factors that influence the perceived complexity of providing nursing care to others (who are dependent on alcohol and tobacco) and the confidence of undergraduate student nurses to carry out this care. The research project is designed to explore whether there is a difference between the perceived complexities of 57…

  1. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  2. Understanding Academic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2006-01-01

    This paper draws on the psychological theories of self-efficacy and the self-concept to understand students' self-confidence in academic study in higher education as measured by the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC). In doing this, expectancy-value theory and self-efficacy theory are considered and contrasted with self-concept and…

  3. Strengthening Public Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herlihy, John J.

    Board members and administrators can build public confidence in their schools by taking every opportunity to communicate positive attitudes about the people in the schools. As leaders, they have the responsibility to use people power to promote the schools. If school employees feel good about their jobs, they will build confidence within the…

  4. Preservice Educators' Confidence in Addressing Sexuality Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyatt, Tammy Jordan

    2009-01-01

    This study examined 328 preservice educators' level of confidence in addressing four sexuality education domains and 21 sexuality education topics. Significant differences in confidence levels across the four domains were found for gender, academic major, sexuality education philosophy, and sexuality education knowledge. Preservice educators…

  5. A proposal of the diagnosis-dynamic characteristic (DDC) model describing the relation between search time and confidence levels for a dichotomous judgment, and its application to ROC curve generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumoto, Toru; Fukuda, Nobuo; Furukawa, Akira; Suwa, Koji; Wada, Shinichi; Matsumoto, Mitsuomi; Sone, Shusuke

    2006-03-01

    When physicians inspect an image, they make up a certain degree of confidence that the image are abnormal; p(t), or normal; n(t)[n(t)=1-p(t)]. After infinite time of the inspection, they reach the equilibrium levels of the confidence of p*=p(∞) and n*=n(∞). There are psychological conflicts between the decisions of normal and abnormal. We assume that the decision of "normal" is distracted by the decision of "abnormal" by a factor of k(1 + ap), and in an inverse direction by a factor of k(1 + bn), where k ( > 0) is a parameter that relates with image quality and skill of the physicians, and a and b are unknown constants. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies the equation, k(1 + ap*)n* = k(1 + bn*)p*. Here we define a parameter C, which is 2p*/[p*(1 - p*)]. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies t that changes in the confidence level with the time (dp/dt) is proportional to [k(1+ap)n - k(1+bn)p], i.e. k[-cp2 + (c - 2)p + 1]. Solving the differential equation, we derived the equation; t(p) and p(t) depending with the parameters; k, c, S. S (0-1) is the value arbitrary selected and related with probability of "abnormal" before the image inspection (S = p(0)). Image reading studies were executed for CT images. ROC curves were generated both by the traditional 4-step score-based method and by the confidence level; p estimated from the equation t(p) of the DDC model using observed judgment time. It was concluded that ROC curves could be generated by measuring time for dichotomous judgment without the subjective scores of diagnostic confidence and applying the DDC model.

  6. Estimating Confidence In Data Via Trend Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gutow, David A.; Arnold, Gregory A.

    1991-01-01

    Recursive equation defines probability-density function storing trends in noisy or potentially erroneous data. Part of algorithm for analysis of trends in data. Developed to determine reliability of data from sensor used to guide robot, and mathematical approach that it represents proves valuable in other applications. Enables computation of statistic (called "confidence statistic") indicating level of confidence in new datum. Generates confidence statistic high or low, depending on whether new datum consistent or inconsistent with previous trends.

  7. The Psychology of Confidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-09-11

    COpY SEP 1 1 1984 Final Report PFTR-1092-83-1 Contract Number:, N00014-80-C-0140 Work Unit Number: -N197-064 DTIO0 ELECTEl odD THE PSYCHOLOGY OF...the final report of research done under the contract THE PSYCHOLOGY OF CONFIDENCE (Contract N00014-80-C-0150) awarded by the Office of Naval Research...section is a narrative summary of the research completed under this contract. It describes the general background to our work on confidence and

  8. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an instructional…

  9. Confidence Course Instructor's Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery County Public Schools, Rockville, MD.

    The Confidence Course is a program of physical activities which seeks to improve individual self-image and to develop initiative and resourcefulness while promoting feelings of trust and good will within a group. General guidelines and procedures include safety considerations as well as common sense in activity selection and a perspective of…

  10. Computing Graphical Confidence Bounds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mezzacappa, M. A.

    1983-01-01

    Approximation for graphical confidence bounds is simple enough to run on programmable calculator. Approximation is used in lieu of numerical tables not always available, and exact calculations, which often require rather sizable computer resources. Approximation verified for collection of up to 50 data points. Method used to analyze tile-strength data on Space Shuttle thermal-protection system.

  11. New Teacher Confidence: How Does It Develop?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tran, MyLuong T.; Young, Russell L.; Mathison, Carla; Hahn, Brenda Terry

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the confidence levels of new teachers and related factors. Seventy-seven first and second year teachers participating in a new teacher retention project filled out a survey. Teachers felt most confident in their communication with colleagues, sensitivity to the needs of a multicultural classroom, and…

  12. Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

  13. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  14. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  15. Trust vs. Confidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-06-07

    both cognitive and affective factors can be implicated in trust judgements. Moreover, unlike confidence judgements (which can occur in many...occurs in situations without risks. A trust judgement, on the other hand, uses a variety of information beyond the merely cognitive , occurs only when...defined. Although there are many different definitions of trust, our definition (Adams and Webb, 2003) is as follows: Trust is a psychological state

  16. A Quantitative Assessment of Gender and Career Decision-Making Confidence Levels of High School Seniors in a School-to-Work Program Using the Career Decision Scale.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fawcett, Mary; Maycock, George

    This study measured differences in the levels of career indecision for urban male and female high school seniors who had varying levels of experience in vocational programs or job related activities through school-to-work (STW) vocational programs. The 113 students, of whom 44% were male and 56% were female, completed the Career Decision Scale…

  17. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  18. A Quantitative Assessment of Culture and Career Decision-Making Confidence Levels of High School Seniors in a School-to-Work Program Using the Career Decision Scale.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fawcett, Mary; Maycock, George

    This paper describes a comparative study to measure differences in the levels of career indecision for high school seniors (N=113) who are African American, Asian, Hispanic, Native American, White, or mixed race, and are involved in activities in a School-to-Work (STW) program of an urban high school. A demographic survey and the Career Decision…

  19. Stress perceptions of soldiers participating in training at the Chemical Defense Training Facility: The mediating effects of motivation, experience, and confidence level. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Fatkin, L.T.; Hudgens, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    An investigation was conducted by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) and funded by the Physiological and Psychological Effects of the Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical (NBC) Environment and Sustained Operations on Systems in Combat (P2NBC2) program to assess the psychological reactions of soldiers in mission-oriented protective posture (MOPP) IV participating in training in a simulated chemical agent environment and in a toxic agent environment. A total of 155 soldiers who participated in the basic course (junior enlisted) and the advanced courses (officer and noncommissioned officer NCO groups) as part of their military occupational specialty (MOS) training volunteered for the study. The junior enlisted group reported significant increases in anxiety during four sessions as they approached the toxic agent portion of the training. The more experienced groups showed a small, but significant increase in anxiety during sessions. Their level of hostility, a component of stress that usually relates to levels of personal frustration, decreased significantly from the time of their initial testing to just before the training began. Since the initial session occurred 1 to 2 weeks before the U.S. Army Chemical Defense Training Facility (CDTF) training, the elevated frustration level may be a reflection of their overall experiences within the intensive chemical defense training program. A significant drop in reported fatigue between the pre- and post-training sessions may indicate a certain level of vigilance gained by participating in the training.

  20. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  1. Simulation integration with confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.

    1999-07-01

    Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.

  2. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  3. Nebraska Schools 83-84 Immunization Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nebraska State Dept. of Health, Lincoln.

    The data contained in this report represents all of the 297,696 students, K-12, in the state of Nebraska. High levels of immunity are documented among children grades K-6. Some immunization levels of children grades 7-12 are yet below the 95 percent established as a minimum for the prevention of vaccine preventable diseases. Specifically, there…

  4. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  5. Monitoring tigers with confidence.

    PubMed

    Linkie, Matthew; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Smith, Joseph; Rayan, D Mark

    2010-12-01

    With only 5% of the world's wild tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) remaining since the last century, conservationists urgently need to know whether or not the management strategies currently being employed are effectively protecting these tigers. This knowledge is contingent on the ability to reliably monitor tiger populations, or subsets, over space and time. In the this paper, we focus on the 2 seminal methodologies (camera trap and occupancy surveys) that have enabled the monitoring of tiger populations with greater confidence. Specifically, we: (i) describe their statistical theory and application in the field; (ii) discuss issues associated with their survey designs and state variable modeling; and, (iii) discuss their future directions. These methods have had an unprecedented influence on increasing statistical rigor within tiger surveys and, also, surveys of other carnivore species. Nevertheless, only 2 published camera trap studies have gone beyond single baseline assessments and actually monitored population trends. For low density tiger populations (e.g. <1 adult tiger/100 km(2)) obtaining sufficient precision for state variable estimates from camera trapping remains a challenge because of insufficient detection probabilities and/or sample sizes. Occupancy surveys have overcome this problem by redefining the sampling unit (e.g. grid cells and not individual tigers). Current research is focusing on developing spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture models and estimating abundance indices from landscape-scale occupancy surveys, as well as the use of genetic information for identifying and monitoring tigers. The widespread application of these monitoring methods in the field now enables complementary studies on the impact of the different threats to tiger populations and their response to varying management intervention.

  6. Speaking with Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gousie, Gene

    This paper offers a summary of two aspects of effective speaking in public, whether it be with co-workers, supervisors, friends, or a group of little-known or unknown others. One aspect of public speaking is the level of sincerity, and the other is the level and variety of skills used. The paper first considers sincerity and then, it discusses the…

  7. Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Bruce

    2007-01-01

    The present article provides a primer on (a) effect sizes, (b) confidence intervals, and (c) confidence intervals for effect sizes. Additionally, various admonitions for reformed statistical practice are presented. For example, a very important implication of the realization that there are dozens of effect size statistics is that "authors must…

  8. Confidence limits and their errors

    SciTech Connect

    Rajendran Raja

    2002-03-22

    Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use especially in cases of limited statistics. We introduce the concept of statistical errors of confidence limits and argue that not only should limits be calculated but also their errors in order to represent the results of the analysis to the fullest. We show that comparison of two different limits from two different experiments becomes easier when their errors are also quoted. Use of errors of confidence limits will lead to abatement of the debate on which method is best suited to calculate confidence limits.

  9. Teaching Confidence Intervals Using Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagtvedt, Reidar; Jones, Gregory Todd; Jones, Kari

    2008-01-01

    Confidence intervals are difficult to teach, in part because most students appear to believe they understand how to interpret them intuitively. They rarely do. To help them abandon their misconception and achieve understanding, we have developed a simulation tool that encourages experimentation with multiple confidence intervals derived from the…

  10. Comparison of asymptotic confidence sets for regression in small samples.

    PubMed

    Kolobkov, Dmitry; Demin, Oleg; Metelkin, Evgeny

    2016-01-01

    In case of small samples, asymptotic confidence sets may be inaccurate, with their actual coverage probability far from a nominal confidence level. In a single framework, we consider four popular asymptotic methods of confidence estimation. These methods are based on model linearization, F-test, likelihood ratio test, and nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. Next, we apply each of these methods to derive three types of confidence sets: confidence intervals, confidence regions, and pointwise confidence bands. Finally, to estimate the actual coverage of these confidence sets, we conduct a simulation study on three regression problems. A linear model and nonlinear Hill and Gompertz models are tested in conditions of different sample size and experimental noise. The simulation study comprises calculation of the actual coverage of confidence sets over pseudo-experimental datasets for each model. For confidence intervals, such metrics as width and simultaneous coverage are also considered. Our comparison shows that the F-test and linearization methods are the most suitable for the construction of confidence intervals, the F-test - for confidence regions and the linearization - for pointwise confidence bands.

  11. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  12. Establishing confidence in CCV/ACT technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, R. B.; Shomber, H. A.

    1976-01-01

    Despite significant advancements in controls configured vehicles/active controls technology (CCV/ACT) in the past decade, few applications of this promising technology have appeared in recent aircraft designs. The status of CCV/ACT is summarized, and some of the constraints which are retarding its wider application are described. Suggestions toward establishing an increased level of confidence in the technology are given.

  13. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  14. Predicting confidence in flashbulb memories.

    PubMed

    Day, Martin V; Ross, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Years after a shocking news event many people confidently report details of their flashbulb memories (e.g., what they were doing). People's confidence is a defining feature of their flashbulb memories, but it is not well understood. We tested a model that predicted confidence in flashbulb memories. In particular we examined whether people's social bond with the target of a news event predicts confidence. At a first session shortly after the death of Michael Jackson participants reported their sense of attachment to Michael Jackson, as well as their flashbulb memories and emotional and other reactions to Jackson's death. At a second session approximately 18 months later they reported their flashbulb memories and confidence in those memories. Results supported our proposed model. A stronger sense of attachment to Jackson was related to reports of more initial surprise, emotion, and rehearsal during the first session. Participants' bond with Michael Jackson predicted their confidence but not the consistency of their flashbulb memories 18 months later. We also examined whether participants' initial forecasts regarding the persistence of their flashbulb memories predicted the durability of their memories. Participants' initial forecasts were more strongly related to participants' subsequent confidence than to the actual consistency of their memories.

  15. Confidence of a ROC manifold

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oxley, Mark E.; Schubert, Christine M.; Thorsen, Steven N.

    2010-04-01

    A Classification system such as an Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) system with N possible output labels (or decisions) will have N(N-1) possible errors. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) manifold was created to quantify all of these errors. Finite truth data will produce an approximation to a ROC manifold. How well does the approximate ROC manifold approximate the TRUE ROC manifold? Several metrics exist that quantify the approximation ability, but researchers really wish to quantify the confidence in the approximate ROC manifold. This paper will review different confidence definitions for ROC curves and will derive an expression for confidence of a ROC manifold. The foundation of the confidence expression is based upon the Chebychev inequality..

  16. Confidence rating for eutrophication assessments.

    PubMed

    Brockmann, Uwe H; Topcu, Dilek H

    2014-05-15

    Confidence of monitoring data is dependent on their variability and representativeness of sampling in space and time. Whereas variability can be assessed as statistical confidence limits, representative sampling is related to equidistant sampling, considering gradients or changing rates at sampling gaps. By the proposed method both aspects are combined, resulting in balanced results for examples of total nitrogen concentrations in the German Bight/North Sea. For assessing sampling representativeness surface areas, vertical profiles and time periods are divided into regular sections for which individually the representativeness is calculated. The sums correspond to the overall representativeness of sampling in the defined area/time period. Effects of not sampled sections are estimated along parallel rows by reducing their confidence, considering their distances to next sampled sections and the interrupted gradients/changing rates. Confidence rating of time sections is based on maximum differences of sampling rates at regular time steps and related means of concentrations.

  17. How to Fire a President: Voting "No Confidence" with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Peter

    2009-01-01

    College faculties often use votes of "no confidence" to try to push out the leaders of their institutions. Many do so, however, without giving much thought to what such a vote actually means, whether they are using it appropriately, or how it will affect their campus--and their own future. Mae Kuykendall, a professor of law at Michigan State…

  18. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  19. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  20. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  1. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    SciTech Connect

    Isaacs, T

    2002-02-13

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  2. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    SciTech Connect

    Isaacs, T

    2002-03-27

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  3. How confident do you feel?

    PubMed

    de Lafuente, Victor; Romo, Ranulfo

    2014-08-20

    In this issue of Neuron, Fetsch et al. (2014) show that microstimulation of motion-sensitive neurons in the visual cortex (MT/MST) of primates mimics the addition of sensory information for which the stimulated neurons are selective. Such microstimulation increases the confidence that monkeys have in their decisions about motion direction.

  4. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

    PubMed Central

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135

  5. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory.

    PubMed

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

  6. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    PubMed

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.

  7. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  8. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  9. Confidence Limits for Maximum Word-Recognition Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dubno, Judy R.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    This experiment sought to define a confidence limit for maximum word-recognition scores obtained from 212 young and elderly adults with confirmed cochlear hearing loss. A 95% confidence limit was found and supported through analysis, although it is suggested that, in some cases, word recognition should be measured at additional levels to obtain…

  10. A primer on confidence intervals in psychopharmacology.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Chittaranjan

    2015-02-01

    Research papers and research summaries frequently present results in the form of data accompanied by 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Not all students and clinicians know how to interpret CIs. This article provides a nontechnical, nonmathematical discussion on how to understand and glean information from CIs; all explanations are accompanied by simple examples. A statistically accurate explanation about CIs is also provided. CIs are differentiated from standard deviations, standard errors, and confidence levels. The interpretation of narrow and wide CIs is discussed. Factors that influence the width of a CI are listed. Explanations are provided for how CIs can be used to assess statistical significance. The significance of overlapping and nonoverlapping CIs is considered. It is concluded that CIs are far more informative than, say, mere P values when drawing conclusions about a result.

  11. NASA's approach to flight confidence. [and safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roth, G. L.

    1984-01-01

    NASA's confidence in the flight readiness of aerospace hardware and software is achieved by a thorough integration of safety activities into every program facet, from concept through the mission. This involves technical and administrative personnel, organizations that specify requirements, design, manufacturing, test and the operators. Reviews by inhouse and external specialists form an integral part of the assurance process. Examples of safety issues and their resolution for some power and propulsion functions are given (lithium cells, autoignition/fretting in high pressure oxygen environments, ignition sources from auxiliary power unit, and low thrust rocket engines). Finally, some comments on NASA's integrated safety activities and the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel's role in the NASA review and assessment process all of which provides added confidence in achieving a high level of mission safety and success.

  12. Confidence Probability versus Detection Probability

    SciTech Connect

    Axelrod, M

    2005-08-18

    In a discovery sampling activity the auditor seeks to vet an inventory by measuring (or inspecting) a random sample of items from the inventory. When the auditor finds every sample item in compliance, he must then make a confidence statement about the whole inventory. For example, the auditor might say: ''We believe that this inventory of 100 items contains no more than 5 defectives with 95% confidence.'' Note this is a retrospective statement in that it asserts something about the inventory after the sample was selected and measured. Contrast this to the prospective statement: ''We will detect the existence of more than 5 defective items in this inventory with 95% probability.'' The former uses confidence probability while the latter uses detection probability. For a given sample size, the two probabilities need not be equal, indeed they could differ significantly. Both these probabilities critically depend on the auditor's prior belief about the number of defectives in the inventory and how he defines non-compliance. In other words, the answer strongly depends on how the question is framed.

  13. Strong Confidence Intervals: A Compromise between the Gaussian and the Slash.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-11-01

    In this report we define strong confidence interval procedures and discuss their properties. Strong confidence means that the reported confidence level is achieved even conditioned on configurations. Furthermore this is true for both the Gaussian and the slash sampling situations. We will show how such a procedure can be obtained and compare its performance to some popular non-parametric confidence intervals. (Author)

  14. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  15. Misinterpreting eyewitness expressions of confidence: The featural justification effect.

    PubMed

    Dodson, Chad S; Dobolyi, David G

    2015-06-01

    How do we know eyewitness statements of confidence are interpreted accurately by others? When eyewitnesses provide a verbal expression of confidence about a lineup identification, such as I'm fairly certain it's him, how well do others understand the intended meaning of this statement of confidence? And, how is this perception of the meaning influenced by justifications of the level of confidence, such as when eyewitnesses say, I remember his chin? The answers to these questions are unknown, as there is no research on how others interpret the intended meaning of eyewitness confidence. Three experiments show that an additional justification of confidence, relative to seeing a confidence statement alone, can increase misunderstanding in others' estimation of the meaning of the expression of confidence. Moreover, this justification-induced increase in misunderstanding only occurs when the justification refers to an observable facial feature and not when it refers to an unobservable quality (e.g., He is very familiar). Even more noteworthy, both Experiments 2 and 3 show that this featural justification effect is strongest when eyewitnesses express absolute certainty in an identification, such as by stating I am positive. When a highly confident assertion is accompanied by a featural justification others will be most likely to misinterpret the intended meaning.

  16. Cortical alpha activity predicts the confidence in an impending action

    PubMed Central

    Kubanek, Jan; Hill, N. Jeremy; Snyder, Lawrence H.; Schalk, Gerwin

    2015-01-01

    When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject's confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects' confidence was independent of the reaction time and independent of the sensory input modeled as a decision variable. Furthermore, the effect is not due to a general cognitive state, such as reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of an ensuing button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the commitment to make a hand movement. PMID:26283892

  17. Counseling Relationship As A Function of Counselor's Self-Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tien-Teh Lin

    1973-01-01

    Results of this study indicated that the degree of perceived counselor's empathy, warmth, genuineness, intimacy, concreteness, expertness, regard, and congruence was linearly related to the level of counselor's self-confidence. (Author)

  18. Confidence-related decision making.

    PubMed

    Insabato, Andrea; Pannunzi, Mario; Rolls, Edmund T; Deco, Gustavo

    2010-07-01

    Neurons have been recorded that reflect in their firing rates the confidence in a decision. Here we show how this could arise as an emergent property in an integrate-and-fire attractor network model of decision making. The attractor network has populations of neurons that respond to each of the possible choices, each biased by the evidence for that choice, and there is competition between the attractor states until one population wins the competition and finishes with high firing that represents the decision. Noise resulting from the random spiking times of individual neurons makes the decision making probabilistic. We also show that a second attractor network can make decisions based on the confidence in the first decision. This system is supported by and accounts for neuronal responses recorded during decision making and makes predictions about the neuronal activity that will be found when a decision is made about whether to stay with a first decision or to abort the trial and start again. The research shows how monitoring can be performed in the brain and this has many implications for understanding cognitive functioning.

  19. The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey: confidence stabilizing, but preparations continue to erode.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2010-03-01

    20TH ANNUAL RCS: The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey-the 20th annual wave of this survey-finds that the record-low confidence levels measured during the past two years of economic decline appear to have bottomed out. The percentage of workers veryconfident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement has stabilized at 16 percent, which is statistically equivalent to the 20-year low of 13 percent measured in 2009 (Fig. 1, pg. 7). Retiree confidence about having a financially secure retirement has also stabilized, with 19 percent saying now they are very confident (statistically equivalent to the 20 percent measured in 2009) (Fig. 2, pg. 8). Worker confidence about paying for basic expenses in retirement has rebounded slightly, with 29 percent now saying they are very confident about having enough money to pay for basic expenses during retirement (up from 25 percent in 2009, but still down from 34 percent in 2008) (Fig. 3, pg. 9). PREPARATIONS STILL ERODING: Fewer workers report that they and/or their spouse have saved for retirement (69 percent, down from 75 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to 72 percent in 2008) (Fig. 11, page 14). Moreover, fewer workers say that they and/or their spouse are currently saving for retirement (60 percent, down from 65 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to percentages measured in other years) (Fig. 13, pg. 15). MORE PEOPLE HAVE NO SAVINGS AT ALL: An increased percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. Among RCS workers providing this type of information, 27 percent say they have less than $1,000 in savings (up from 20 percent in 2009). In total, more than half of workers (54 percent) report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000 (Fig. 14, pg. 16). CLUELESS ABOUT SAVINGS GOALS: Many workers continue to be unaware of how much they need to save for

  20. Contrasting Diversity Values: Statistical Inferences Based on Overlapping Confidence Intervals

    PubMed Central

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance). PMID:23437239

  1. Contrasting diversity values: statistical inferences based on overlapping confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance).

  2. Determinants of observed confidant support for divorced mothers.

    PubMed

    DeGarmo, D S; Forgatch, M S

    1997-02-01

    Marital separation can be a time of extreme stress and can significantly disrupt support networks and support processes when they are needed most. The purpose of this investigation was to test mechanisms of support erosion in a multimethod study of 138 divorced mothers and their confidants. Previous work was extended by using observational measures of confidant support in a process model including (a) maternal characteristics over time, (b) support person characteristics, and (c) relationship characteristics (intimacy and confidant relationship type). A hypothesized mechanism of erosion was supported in which ongoing maternal distress was positively associated with levels of confidant negativity, which in turn was related to lower levels of observed support. Having a partner was related to more intimacy than was having family and friends. Contrary to expectation, however, having a partner was related to lower levels of support, and intimacy was not related to observed support.

  3. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    SciTech Connect

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  4. Confidence bounds on structural reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehta, S. R.; Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

    1993-01-01

    Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

  5. Confidence in ASCI scientific simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Ang, J.A.; Trucano, T.G.; Luginbuhl, D.R.

    1998-06-01

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program calls for the development of high end computing and advanced application simulations as one component of a program to eliminate reliance upon nuclear testing in the US nuclear weapons program. This paper presents results from the ASCI program`s examination of needs for focused validation and verification (V and V). These V and V activities will ensure that 100 TeraOP-scale ASCI simulation code development projects apply the appropriate means to achieve high confidence in the use of simulations for stockpile assessment and certification. The authors begin with an examination of the roles for model development and validation in the traditional scientific method. The traditional view is that the scientific method has two foundations, experimental and theoretical. While the traditional scientific method does not acknowledge the role for computing and simulation, this examination establishes a foundation for the extension of the traditional processes to include verification and scientific software development that results in the notional framework known as Sargent`s Framework. This framework elucidates the relationships between the processes of scientific model development, computational model verification and simulation validation. This paper presents a discussion of the methodologies and practices that the ASCI program will use to establish confidence in large-scale scientific simulations. While the effort for a focused program in V and V is just getting started, the ASCI program has been underway for a couple of years. The authors discuss some V and V activities and preliminary results from the ALEGRA simulation code that is under development for ASCI. The breadth of physical phenomena and the advanced computational algorithms that are employed by ALEGRA make it a subject for V and V that should typify what is required for many ASCI simulations.

  6. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  7. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    PubMed

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations.

  8. Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gehrels, N.

    1986-01-01

    The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

  9. Local and Global Judgments of Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liberman, Varda

    2004-01-01

    Studies of calibration have shown that people's mean confidence in their answers (local confidence) tends to be greater than their overall estimate of the percentage of correct answers (global confidence). Moreover, whereas the former exhibits overconfidence, the latter often exhibits underconfidence. Three studies present evidence that global…

  10. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Settlemyer, Bradley W; Hodson, Stephen W; Kuehn, Jeffery A; Poole, Stephen W

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  11. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    PubMed

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2016-11-11

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity.

  12. Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamkins, J.

    2015-05-01

    We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

  13. Shared neural markers of decision confidence and error detection.

    PubMed

    Boldt, Annika; Yeung, Nick

    2015-02-25

    Empirical evidence indicates that people can provide accurate evaluations of their own thoughts and actions by means of both error detection and confidence judgments. This study investigates the foundations of these metacognitive abilities, specifically focusing on the relationship between confidence and error judgments in human perceptual decision making. Electroencephalography studies have identified the error positivity (Pe)--an event-related component observed following incorrect choices--as a robust neural index of participants' awareness of their errors in simple decision tasks. Here we assessed whether the Pe also varies in a graded way with participants' subjective ratings of decision confidence, as expressed on a 6-point scale after each trial of a dot count perceptual decision task. We observed clear, graded modulation of the Pe by confidence, with monotonic reduction in Pe amplitude associated with increasing confidence in the preceding choice. This effect was independent of objective accuracy. Multivariate decoding analyses indicated that neural markers of error detection were predictive of varying levels of confidence in correct decisions, including subtle shifts in high-confidence trials. These results suggest that shared mechanisms underlie two forms of metacognitive evaluation that are often treated separately, with consequent implications for current theories of their neurocognitive basis.

  14. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    PubMed

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  15. Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

  16. Market entry decisions: effects of absolute and relative confidence.

    PubMed

    Bolger, Fergus; Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

    2008-01-01

    In a market entry game, the number of entrants usually approaches game-theoretic equilibrium quickly, but in real-world markets business start-ups typically exceed market capacity, resulting in chronically high failure rates and suboptimal industry profits. Excessive entry has been attributed to overconfidence arising when expected payoffs depend partly on skill. In an experimental test of this hypothesis, 96 participants played 24 rounds of a market entry game, with expected payoffs dependent partly on skill on half the rounds, after their confidence was manipulated and measured. The results provide direct support for the hypothesis that high levels of confidence are largely responsible for excessive entry, and they suggest that absolute confidence, independent of interpersonal comparison, rather than confidence about one's abilities relative to others, drives excessive entry decisions when skill is involved.

  17. Recursive confidence band construction for an unknown distribution function.

    PubMed

    Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Given a sample X1,...,Xn of independent observations from an unknown continuous distribution function F, the problem of constructing a confidence band for F is considered, which is a fundamental problem in statistical inference. This confidence band provides simultaneous inferences on all quantiles and also on all of the cumulative probabilities of the distribution, and so they are among the most important inference procedures that address the issue of multiplicity. A fully nonparametric approach is taken where no assumptions are made about the distribution function F. Historical approaches to this problem, such as Kolmogorov's famous () procedure, represent some of the earliest inference methodologies that address the issue of multiplicity. This is because a confidence band at a given confidence level 1-α allows inferences on all of the quantiles of the distribution, and also on all of the cumulative probabilities, at that specified confidence level. In this paper it is shown how recursive methodologies can be employed to construct both one-sided and two-sided confidence bands of various types. The first approach operates by putting bounds on the cumulative probabilities at the data points, and a recursive integration approach is described. The second approach operates by providing bounds on certain specified quantiles of the distribution, and its implementation using recursive summations of multinomial probabilities is described. These recursive methodologies are illustrated with examples, and R code is available for their implementation.

  18. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    PubMed

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-06-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  19. Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

  20. Lecturer Confidence Building: The Use of Age Progression and Ego Enhancement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanton, Harry E.

    1995-01-01

    A program of hypnotic suggestion, visualization, and relaxation training was used to help improve the teaching self-confidence of 22 university faculty. Comparison of preprogram, postprogram, and six-month follow-up measures of confidence, including both psychometric and anecdotal reports, found the participants' confidence level had been both…

  1. Early Childhood Practicum Students' Professional Growth in the USA: Areas of Confidence and Concern

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wee, Su-Jeong; Weber, Elsa K.; Park, Soyeon

    2014-01-01

    This research examines specific areas of confidence and concern as expressed by 40 American undergraduate early childhood students on a practicum (supervised field-based internships); if their beliefs changed over the course of their practicum, and if prior teaching experience had an impact on their confidence levels. Areas of confidence and…

  2. Decision-making, errors, and confidence in the brain.

    PubMed

    Rolls, Edmund T; Grabenhorst, Fabian; Deco, Gustavo

    2010-11-01

    To provide a fundamental basis for understanding decision-making and decision confidence, we analyze a neuronal spiking attractor-based model of decision-making. The model predicts probabilistic decision-making with larger neuronal responses and larger functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses on correct than on error trials because the spiking noise-influenced decision attractor state of the network is consistent with the external evidence. Moreover, the model predicts that the neuronal activity and the BOLD response will become larger on correct trials as the discriminability ΔI increases and confidence increases and will become smaller as confidence decreases on error trials as ΔI increases. Confidence is thus an emergent property of the model. In an fMRI study of an olfactory decision-making task, we confirm these predictions for cortical areas including medial prefrontal cortex and the cingulate cortex implicated in choice decision-making, showing a linear increase in the BOLD signal with ΔI on correct trials, and a linear decrease on error trials. These effects were not found in a control area, the orbitofrontal cortex, where reward value useful for the choice is represented on a continuous scale but that is not implicated in the choice itself. This provides a unifying approach to decision-making and decision confidence and to how spiking-related noise affects choice, confidence, synaptic and neuronal activity, and fMRI signals.

  3. Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

    PubMed

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

  4. Examining multidimensional sport-confidence in athletes and non-athlete sport performers.

    PubMed

    Machida, Moe; Otten, Mark; Magyar, T Michelle; Vealey, Robin S; Ward, Rose Marie

    2017-03-01

    Sport-confidence is considered a critical success factor for sport performers at all levels. Researchers have suggested that sport-confidence is a multidimensional rather than a unidimensional construct, and the sport-confidence model identified three types of sport-confidence (i.e., physical skills and training, cognitive efficiency, and resilience) that are important for success in sport. However, such multidimensionality of sport-confidence and its measurement have not been fully examined. On a large sample of sport performers with varied skill levels and characteristics, the purpose of the present study was to examine the three-factor model of sport-confidence. We tested the measurement invariance of the Sport-Confidence Inventory across 512 athletes and 1170 non-athlete sport performers. Results from the multiple group model analysis showed that the three-factor model of sport-confidence fit better for the athlete sample than for the non-athlete sample. The results implicate that the three-factor model of sport-confidence model is suitable to athletes, though sport-confidence may appear more unidimensional for non-athletes. The use of the Sport-Confidence Inventory for non-athlete sport performers demands further consideration; however, the findings implicate that it could be a useful tool to assess sport-confidence of sport performers at any levels.

  5. Parents' Confidence in Recommended Childhood Vaccinations: Extending the Assessment, Expanding the Context.

    PubMed

    Nowak, Glen J; Cacciatore, Michael A

    2016-09-28

    There has been significant and growing interest in vaccine hesitancy and confidence in the United States as well as across the globe. While studies have used confidence measures, few studies have provided in-depth assessments and no studies have assessed parents' confidence in vaccines in relationship to other frequently recommended health-related products for young children. This study used a nationally representative sample of 1000 U.S. parents to identify confidence levels for recommended vaccinations, antibiotics, over-the-counter (OTC) medicines, and vitamins for children. The analyses examined associations between confidence ratings, vaccination behaviors and intentions, and trust in healthcare provider, along with associations between confidence ratings and use of the other health-related products. Parents' confidence in vaccines was relatively high and high relative to antibiotics, OTC medicines and vitamins. For all four health-related products examined, past product experience and knowledge of bad or adverse outcomes negatively impacted parents' confidence levels. Confidence levels were associated with both trust in advice from their child's healthcare provider and acceptance of healthcare provider recommendations. Parents in some groups, such as those with lower income and education levels, were more likely to have less confidence not just in vaccines, but also in antibiotics and OTC medicines for children. Overall, the findings extend understanding of vaccine confidence, including by placing it into a broader context.

  6. Raising Confident, Competent Daughters: Strategies for Parents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ransome, Whitney, Ed.; And Others

    This booklet contains five essays designed to help parents raise confident, competent daughters. They focus on ways that parents can help their preadolescent and adolescent daughters: (1) speak up in class, articulate their thoughts, and speak with self-confidence in various academic and social situations; (2) develop an interest and aptitude for…

  7. A Confidence Paradigm for Classification Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-09-01

    will have an associated confidence function. Class specific classifier confidence is esti- mated using multiattribute preference theory . The appropriate...Preference Theory Application Multiattribute preference theory is a branch of decision analysis that allows a decision maker to determine preferences...for alternatives when each of the alternatives has more than one attribute. Within multiattribute preference theory , there are two classes of

  8. Enhancing Confidence in the Gender Sensitive Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pryor, John

    Starting from the idea that even well-intentioned teachers often undermine girls' confidence in gender-sensitive areas of school curriculum, this paper outlines methods that might be used to enhance this confidence. It presents impressions from a 1-year observation of a class of 10-year-olds in a British school as part of a project called Group…

  9. Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches

  10. Confidence in Parenting: Is Parent Education Working?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanberry, J. Phillip; Stanberry, Anne M.

    This study examined parents' feelings of confidence in their parenting ability among 56 individuals enrolled in 5 parent education programs in Mississippi, hypothesizing that there would be significant correlations between personal authority in the family system and a parent's confidence in performing the various roles of parenting. Based on…

  11. Gender, Family Structure, and Adolescents' Primary Confidants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nomaguchi, Kei M.

    2008-01-01

    Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (N = 4,190), this study examined adolescents' reports of primary confidants. Results showed that nearly 30% of adolescents aged 16-18 nominated mothers as primary confidants, 25% nominated romantic partners, and 20% nominated friends. Nominating romantic partners or friends was related…

  12. Confidence Wagering during Mathematics and Science Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Hoan-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal presents the results of a case study involving five 8th grade Taiwanese classes, two mathematics and three science classes. These classes used a new method of testing called confidence wagering. This paper advocates the position that confidence wagering can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during…

  13. Decision Making and Confidence Given Uncertain Advice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Michael D.; Dry, Matthew J.

    2006-01-01

    We study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend…

  14. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  15. Confidence and Doubt in Relation to Mathematics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boekaerts, Monique

    This paper reviews literature documenting gender differences in beliefs related to mathematics achievement. The areas included in the discussion are: (1) gender differences in mathematics achievement and self-referenced cognitions, (2) the effect of confidence and anxiety on mathematics performance and expenditure of effort, and (3) confidence and…

  16. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  17. An informative confidence metric for ATR.

    SciTech Connect

    Bow, Wallace Johnston Jr.; Richards, John Alfred; Bray, Brian Kenworthy

    2003-03-01

    Automatic or assisted target recognition (ATR) is an important application of synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Most ATR researchers have focused on the core problem of declaration-that is, detection and identification of targets of interest within a SAR image. For ATR declarations to be of maximum value to an image analyst, however, it is essential that each declaration be accompanied by a reliability estimate or confidence metric. Unfortunately, the need for a clear and informative confidence metric for ATR has generally been overlooked or ignored. We propose a framework and methodology for evaluating the confidence in an ATR system's declarations and competing target hypotheses. Our proposed confidence metric is intuitive, informative, and applicable to a broad class of ATRs. We demonstrate that seemingly similar ATRs may differ fundamentally in the ability-or inability-to identify targets with high confidence.

  18. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    PubMed

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team.

  19. State FFA Officers' Confidence and Trustworthiness of Biotechnology Information Sources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wingenbach, Gary J.; Rutherford, Tracy A.

    2007-01-01

    Are state FFA officers' awareness levels of agricultural topics reported in mass media superior to those who do not serve in leadership roles? The purpose of this study was to determine elected state FFA officers' awareness of biotechnology, and their confidence and trust of biotechnology information sources. Descriptive survey methods were used…

  20. Academic Behavioural Confidence: A Comparison of Medical and Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanders, Lalage; Sander, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Introduction. Sander, Stevenson, King and Coates (2000) identified differences between medical students in a conventional university and psychology students in a post-1992 university in their responses to different styles of learning and teaching. Method. It had been hypothesised that differing levels of confidence explained why the former felt…

  1. Analyzing Student Confidence in Classroom Voting with Multiple Choice Questions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Ann; Storm, Christopher; VonEpps, Lahna

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present results of a recent study in which students voted on multiple choice questions in mathematics courses of varying levels. Students used clickers to select the best answer among the choices given; in addition, they were also asked whether they were confident in their answer. In this paper we analyze data…

  2. Confidence in Teaching Mathematics among Malaysian Pre-Service Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yunus, Aida Suraya Md.; Hamzah, Ramlah; Ismail, Habsah; Husain, Sharifah Kartini Said; Ismail, Mat Rofa

    2006-01-01

    This study focuses on the confidence level of mathematics education students in teaching school mathematics. Respondents were 165 final year students from four Malaysian universities. It was found that the respondents showed a strong foundation in mathematics upon entrance to the university. In spite of their strong background in school…

  3. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  4. Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Du, Yunfei

    This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

  5. Modal confidence factor in vibration testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibrahim, S. R.

    1978-01-01

    The theory and applications of a time domain modal test technique are presented. The method uses free decay of random responses from a structure under test to identify its modal characteristics namely, natural frequencies, damping factors, and mode shapes. The method can identify multimodal (highly coupled) systems and modes that have very small contribution in the responses. A method is presented to decrease the effects of high levels of noise in the data and thus improve the accuracy of identified parameters. This is accomplished using an oversized mathematical model. The concept of modal confidence factor (MCF) is developed. The MCF is a number calculated for every identified mode for a structure under test. The MCF varies from 0.000 for a distorted, nonlinear, or noise mode to 100.0 for a pure structural mode. The theory of the MCF is based on the correlation that exits between the modal deflection at a certain station and the modal deflection at the same station delayed in time. The theory and application of the MCF is illustrated by two experiments. The first experiment deals with simulated responses from a two degree of freedom system with 20 percent, 40 percent, and 100 percent noise added. The second experiment was run on a generalized payload model. The free decay response from the payload model contained about 22 percent noise.

  6. Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

    PubMed

    Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

    2010-01-01

    Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

  7. Confidence Interval Procedures for Reliability Growth Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1977-06-01

    Plj2s tSAA - TECHNICAL RPORT NO. 197 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL PROCEDURES FOR RELIABILITY, GROWTH ANALYSIS LARRY H. CROW JUNE 1977 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC...dence Intervals for M(T). ¶-. fl [ ] 1 Siion IIS0III0N/AVAI Ale ITY ClOtS Next page is blank. So3 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL PROCIEDURIS• FOR RELTABILITY...and confidence interval procedures for the parameters B and P = X are presented in [l , [2], [4]. In the application of the Weibull process model to

  8. Asymptotic Theory for Nonparametric Confidence Intervals.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-07-01

    distributions. Ann. Math Statist. 14, 56-62. 24. ROY, S.N. and POTTHOFF, R.F. (1958). Confidence bounds on vector analogues of the "ratio of the mean" and...fl c,~_________ 14L TITLE feed &MV) S. TYPE or REPORT a PeftOo COVx:REC Asympeocic Theory for Nonaparuetric Technical Report Confidence Intevals 6...S..C-0S78 UNCLASSIFIED TŗU *uuuuumuuumhhhhmhhhm_4 ASYMPTOTIC THEORY FOR NONPARAMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS by Peter W. Glynn TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 63

  9. Staff confidence in dealing with aggressive patients: a benchmarking exercise.

    PubMed

    McGowan, S; Wynaden, D; Harding, N; Yassine, A; Parker, J

    1999-09-01

    Interacting with potentially aggressive patients is a common occurrence for nurses working in psychiatric intensive care units. Although the literature highlights the need to educate staff in the prevention and management of aggression, often little, or no, training is provided by employers. This article describes a benchmarking exercise conducted in psychiatric intensive care units at two Western Australian hospitals to assess staff confidence in coping with patient aggression. Results demonstrated that staff in the hospital where regular training was undertaken were significantly more confident in dealing with aggression. Following the completion of a safe physical restraint module at the other hospital staff reported a significant increase in their level of confidence that either matched or bettered the results of their benchmark colleagues.

  10. Losing confidence in medicine in an era of medical expansion?

    PubMed

    Zheng, Hui

    2015-07-01

    Has the expansion of the medical field inspired more or less confidence in medicine among the American public? This study investigates how confidence in medicine has changed over the past three decades, whether this trend is uniform across social groups and which aspects of medicine are most affected. Data are from repeated cross-sectional U.S. General Social Surveys spanning the years 1973-2008, including the 2002 Doctors and Patients Module and the 1998 Pressing Issues in Health and Medical Care Module. Americans' confidence in medicine has declined continuously over the past three decades, and the extent of this decline did not vary by gender, age group, cohort, or income level. Analysis of differences across socio-demographic groups suggests that confidence in medicine is related to trust in doctors' ethics but different from obedience to doctors' authority. Therefore, the downward trend in confidence in medicine may suggest a decline in public trust in doctors' ethics, but not necessarily a decline in obedience to doctors' authority.

  11. Prior knowledge is more predictive of error correction than subjective confidence.

    PubMed

    Sitzman, Danielle M; Rhodes, Matthew G; Tauber, Sarah K

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has demonstrated that, when given feedback, participants are more likely to correct confidently-held errors, as compared with errors held with lower levels of confidence, a finding termed the hypercorrection effect. Accounts of hypercorrection suggest that confidence modifies attention to feedback; alternatively, hypercorrection may reflect prior domain knowledge, with confidence ratings simply correlated with this prior knowledge. In the present experiments, we attempted to adjudicate among these explanations of the hypercorrection effect. In Experiments 1a and 1b, participants answered general knowledge questions, rated their confidence, and received feedback either immediately after rating their confidence or after a delay of several minutes. Although memory for confidence judgments should have been poorer at a delay, the hypercorrection effect was equivalent for both feedback timings. Experiment 2 showed that hypercorrection remained unchanged even when the delay to feedback was increased. In addition, measures of recall for prior confidence judgments showed that memory for confidence was indeed poorer after a delay. Experiment 3 directly compared estimates of domain knowledge with confidence ratings, showing that such prior knowledge was related to error correction, whereas the unique role of confidence was small. Overall, our results suggest that prior knowledge likely plays a primary role in error correction, while confidence may play a small role or merely serve as a proxy for prior knowledge.

  12. Validation of a questionnaire to measure mathematics confidence, computer confidence, and attitudes towards the use of technology for learning mathematics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fogarty, Gerry; Cretchley, Patricia; Harman, Chris; Ellerton, Nerida; Konki, Nissam

    2001-09-01

    This study reports on the validation of a questionnaire designed to measure general mathematics confidence, general confidence with using technology, and attitudes towards the use of technology for mathematics learning. A questionnaire was administered to 289 students commencing a tertiary level course on linear algebra and calculus. Scales formed on the basis of factor analysis demonstrated high internal consistency reliability and divergent validity. A repeat administration confirmed the earlier psychometric findings as well as establishing good test-retest reliability. The resulting instrument can be used to measure attitudinal factors that mediate the effective use of technology in mathematics learning.

  13. Efficient Computation Of Confidence Intervals Of Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1992-01-01

    Study focuses on obtaining efficient algorithm for estimation of confidence intervals of ML estimates. Four algorithms selected to solve associated constrained optimization problem. Hybrid algorithms, following search and gradient approaches, prove best.

  14. Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayhurst, Kelly J.

    1991-01-01

    Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

  15. Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-01

    assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction—the princi- ple (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in...eliminative induction. As first proposed by Francis Bacon [Schum 2001] and extended by L. Jonathan Cohen [Cohen 1970, 1977, 1989], eliminative induction is...eliminative in- duction—the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for

  16. Confidence regions of planar cardiac vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubin, S.; Herr, A.; Hunt, P.

    1980-01-01

    A method for plotting the confidence regions of vectorial data obtained in electrocardiology is presented. The 90%, 95% and 99% confidence regions of cardiac vectors represented in a plane are obtained in the form of an ellipse centered at coordinates corresponding to the means of a sample selected at random from a bivariate normal distribution. An example of such a plot for the frontal plane QRS mean electrical axis for 80 horses is also presented.

  17. Worse than enemies. The CEO's destructive confidant.

    PubMed

    Sulkowicz, Kerry J

    2004-02-01

    The CEO is often the most isolated and protected employee in the organization. Few leaders, even veteran CEOs, can do the job without talking to someone about their experiences, which is why most develop a close relationship with a trusted colleague, a confidant to whom they can tell their thoughts and fears. In his work with leaders, the author has found that many CEO-confidant relationships function very well. The confidants keep their leaders' best interests at heart. They derive their gratification vicariously, through the help they provide rather than through any personal gain, and they are usually quite aware that a person in their position can potentially abuse access to the CEO's innermost secrets. Unfortunately, almost as many confidants will end up hurting, undermining, or otherwise exploiting CEOs when the executives are at their most vulnerable. These confidants rarely make the headlines, but behind the scenes they do enormous damage to the CEO and to the organization as a whole. What's more, the leader is often the last one to know when or how the confidant relationship became toxic. The author has identified three types of destructive confidants. The reflector mirrors the CEO, constantly reassuring him that he is the "fairest CEO of them all." The insulator buffers the CEO from the organization, preventing critical information from getting in or out. And the usurper cunningly ingratiates himself with the CEO in a desperate bid for power. This article explores how the CEO-confidant relationship plays out with each type of adviser and suggests ways CEOs can avoid these destructive relationships.

  18. The Joint Confidence Level Paradox: A History of Denial

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butts, Glenn; Linton, Kent

    2009-01-01

    This paper is intended to provide a reliable methodology for those tasked with generating price tags on construction (C0F) and research and development (R&D) activities in the NASA performance world. This document consists of a collection of cost-related engineering detail and project fulfillment information from early agency days to the present. Accurate historical detail is the first place to start when determining improved methodologies for future cost and schedule estimating. This paper contains a beneficial proposed cost estimating method for arriving at more reliable numbers for future submits. When comparing current cost and schedule methods with earlier cost and schedule approaches, it became apparent that NASA's organizational performance paradigm has morphed. Mission fulfillment speed has slowed and cost calculating factors have increased in 21st Century space exploration.

  19. Training and Mandated Reporters' Confidence Levels: A Correlational Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eichelberger, Cathy S.

    2011-01-01

    Child maltreatment is a costly social issue, both financially and in terms of children's well-being. All 50 states and many countries have enacted mandatory reporting laws, but not all of them require mandated reporter training. A multitude of studies have shown that many mandated reporters do not report all of the cases of suspected child abuse…

  20. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  1. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task

    PubMed Central

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence. PMID:27242566

  2. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task.

    PubMed

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence.

  3. "But I Thought I Knew That!" Student Confidence Judgments on Course Examinations in Introductory Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nevid, Jeffrey S.; Cheney, Brianna; Thompson, Clarissa

    2015-01-01

    Students in an introductory psychology class rated their level of confidence in their answers to exam questions on four multiple-choice exams through the course of a semester. Correlations between confidence judgments and accuracy (correct vs. incorrect) at the individual item level showed modest but significant relationships for item sets scaled…

  4. Resuscitation of the Newborn: Simulating for Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Woodman, Anna; McCay, Wendy; Bates, Sarah E

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Non-pediatric trainees working in pediatrics in the UK are expected to attend newborn deliveries and provide initial newborn life support if needed. In Swindon, new junior doctors receive a 90-minute teaching session at the start of their pediatrics rotation, but the content has not previously been standardized, and it may be several weeks before a doctor attends a newborn delivery. Thus, the confidence and competence in newborn resuscitation of doctors attending deliveries can vastly vary. Methods A standardized teaching package was developed as part of the pediatrics induction program. This includes an interactive lecture on the physiology of the newborn, skills stations, and mini-simulations to consolidate skills. This is accompanied by a program of regular neonatal mini-simulations as part of the departmental morning teaching program. These sessions allow junior doctors to practice their skills in a safe, simulated environment and reinforce the newborn life support pathway. Results Qualitative and quantitative feedback was sought following delivery of the induction training session. Junior doctors were asked to rate their confidence before and after the induction session using Likert scales from 1 (least confident) to 5 (most confident). Median confidence in attending term deliveries increased from 2 (range 1 - 4) to 4 (2 - 5), P=0.008. There was evidence that confidence was maintained at one month following induction. Conclusions A simulation program has been successful at improving confidence among junior doctors in attending newborn deliveries. This has the potential to improve patient care and trainees’ experiences of their pediatrics placement. PMID:27774358

  5. You'd better think twice: post-decision perceptual confidence.

    PubMed

    Hilgenstock, Raphael; Weiss, Thomas; Witte, Otto W

    2014-10-01

    Current findings suggest that confidence emerges only after decision making. However, the temporal and neural dynamics of the emergence of post-decision confidence--a metacognitive judgement--are not fully explored. To gain insight into the dynamics of post-decision confidence processing and to disentangle the processes underlying confidence judgements and decision making, we applied a tactile discrimination task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Our results revealed that reaction times to post-decision confidence depend on the level of confidence, suggesting that post-decision confidence in a perceptual choice is not processed in parallel to perceptual decision making. Moreover, we demonstrated by the parametric analysis of fMRI data that post-decisionally modelled confidence processing can be distinguished from processes related to decision making through anatomical location and through the pattern of neural activity. In contrast to perceptual decision making, post-decision confidence appears to be strictly allocated to a prefrontal network of brain regions, primarily the anterior and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, areas that have been related to metacognition. Moreover, the processes underlying decision making and post-decision confidence may share recruitment of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, although the former probably has distinct functions with regard to processing of perceptual choices and post-decision confidence. Thus, this is the first fMRI study to disentangle the processes underlying post-decision confidence and decision making on behavioural, neuroanatomical, and neurofunctional levels. With regard to the temporal evolution of post-decision confidence, results of the present study provide strong support for the most recent theoretical models of human perceptual decision making, and thus provide implications for investigating confidence in perceptual paradigms.

  6. Farmers' confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Enticott, G; Maye, D; Ilbery, B; Fisher, R; Kirwan, J

    2012-02-25

    This paper examines UK farmers' levels of confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and their trust in the Government's ability to deal with bTB. In 2010, a badger vaccine based on the BCG vaccine was licensed following field trials and used as part of the UK Government's Badger Vaccination Deployment Project. A stratified random sample of cattle farmers in five different locations of England was surveyed using a telephone survey to elicit their views of badger vaccination. The survey provided a total of 341 responses with a response rate of 80 per cent. Results suggest that the farmers are cautious about badger vaccination, appearing to be neither overly confident nor unconfident in it. However, the farmers did not reveal high levels of trust in the Government to manage bTB policy or badger vaccination. There were no differences in the levels of confidence or trust between farms that were under bTB restrictions at the time of the survey and those that were not or between farms with historically high levels of bTB. Analysis of principal components suggests that 33 per cent of the farmers accepted badger vaccination, but that acceptance is dependent on the wider social and political environment.

  7. Simplified approach to confidence limits in radioimmunoassay

    SciTech Connect

    Baxter, R.C.

    1980-05-01

    A simple method of calculating confidence limits for radioimmunoassay data is presented. The method involves the use of the within-assay variation in dose estimate of three routine quality-control specimens, measured in repeated assays, to estimate the confidence limits for results on unknown samples. Results for control specimens are combined by calculating the unique quadratic curve fitting a graph of within-assay standard deviation vs mean value for each control. This method requires no special data accumulation or advanced computing equipment. For cortisol, lutropin, and thyroxine radioimmunassays, confidence limits calculated in this way have been compared with three calculated from the variance of the response variable B/Bq in repeated standard curves. Both methods agree well with actual limits observed when plasma pools containing a wide range of hormone concentrations are assayed repeatedly.

  8. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    PubMed Central

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

  9. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    PubMed

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  10. Effectiveness of a burn rehabilitation workshop addressing confidence in therapy providers.

    PubMed

    Bergkamp, Donna; Lenk, James; Reynolds, Michael; Hallacy, Kimberly; Ward, Jeanette G; Helmer, Stephen D; Haan, James M

    2013-01-01

    The study first assessed comfort levels of physical and occupational therapists who provide burn care prior to a hands-on intervention, then assessed therapists' confidence levels following an educational intervention. Physical and occupational therapists who previously treated burn survivors were invited to complete a preworkshop confidence level survey. From this information, four burn rehabilitation interventional categories were identified: positioning and exercise, compression, wound healing, and burn resources. A one-day workshop was held targeting these categories. Surveys were offered at the conclusion of the workshop as well as at 6-month follow-up. Initial survey results (n = 31) indicated that more than 75% of therapists felt unconfident or strongly unconfident in providing burn rehabilitation to patients. The postworkshop survey demonstrated significant improvements in all interventional categories. Further analysis revealed that baseline confidence levels for positioning and exercise were significantly higher than the other categories (P < .03). Six-month follow-up results (n = 20) confirmed that confidence gained from the workshop remained significantly higher than preworkshop confidence levels. Baseline therapists' confidence levels in treating burn survivors were low, but improved following a one-day educational workshop. Providing hands-on burn education improved the confidence of therapists who treat burn survivors. Future efforts to improve therapist confidence and patient outcomes need to be explored.

  11. [Normal confidence interval for a summary measure].

    PubMed

    Bernard, P M

    2000-10-01

    This paper proposes an approach for calculating the normal confidence interval of a weighted summary measure which requires a particular continuous transformation for its variance estimation. By using the transformation properties and applying the delta method, the variance of transformed measure is easily expressed in terms of the transformed specific measure variances and the squared weights. The confidence limits of the summary measure are easily deduced by inverse transformation of those of transformed measure. The method is illustrated by applying it to some well known epidemiological measures. It seems appropriate for application in stratified analysis context where size allows normal approximation.

  12. Unexpected arousal modulates the influence of sensory noise on confidence

    PubMed Central

    Allen, Micah; Frank, Darya; Schwarzkopf, D Samuel; Fardo, Francesca; Winston, Joel S; Hauser, Tobias U; Rees, Geraint

    2016-01-01

    Human perception is invariably accompanied by a graded feeling of confidence that guides metacognitive awareness and decision-making. It is often assumed that this arises solely from the feed-forward encoding of the strength or precision of sensory inputs. In contrast, interoceptive inference models suggest that confidence reflects a weighted integration of sensory precision and expectations about internal states, such as arousal. Here we test this hypothesis using a novel psychophysical paradigm, in which unseen disgust-cues induced unexpected, unconscious arousal just before participants discriminated motion signals of variable precision. Across measures of perceptual bias, uncertainty, and physiological arousal we found that arousing disgust cues modulated the encoding of sensory noise. Furthermore, the degree to which trial-by-trial pupil fluctuations encoded this nonlinear interaction correlated with trial level confidence. Our results suggest that unexpected arousal regulates perceptual precision, such that subjective confidence reflects the integration of both external sensory and internal, embodied states. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18103.001 PMID:27776633

  13. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Jaeger, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45°) represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned) input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays. PMID:26495433

  14. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  15. Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

  16. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  17. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  18. Training for Job-Skill Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lingg, Mary-Ann

    1996-01-01

    Evaluation of the effectiveness of the Kmart Employment for Youth job preparation program showed that the 43 African American students ages 16-19 gained confidence in such employable skills as the ability to plan and develop a career, to make decisions, and to find a job. (JOW)

  19. Using seismology for regional confidence building

    SciTech Connect

    Nakanishi, K.K.

    1997-03-01

    Confidence building between regional parties can be facilitated through cooperative seismological research activities. Shared data, facilities, technology, and research results can (1) assure participants that nuclear testing is not taking place, (2) provide information that can be used to characterize the geophysical parameters of a region for earthquake hazard mitigation, and (3) support basic seismic research.

  20. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  1. Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zou, Guang Yong

    2007-01-01

    Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

  2. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  3. Confidence in Pass/Fail Decisions for Computer Adaptive and Paper and Pencil Examinations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergstrom, Betty A.; Lunz, Mary E.

    1992-01-01

    The level of confidence in pass/fail decisions obtained with computerized adaptive tests and paper-and-pencil tests was greater for 645 medical technology students when the computer adaptive test implemented a 90 percent confidence stopping rule than for paper-and-pencil tests of comparable length. (SLD)

  4. Knowledge, Confidence, and Attitudes Regarding Medical Ethics: How Do Faculty and Housestaff Compare?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sulmasy, Daniel P.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    A study compared the knowledge, confidence, and attitudes regarding medical ethics of 55 house officers and 57 full-time faculty members of the Georgetown University (District of Columbia) Department of Medicine. Results indicated low knowledge levels in both groups, higher faculty confidence, and somewhat more faculty sentiment for mandatory…

  5. Calibration with confidence: a principled method for panel assessment

    PubMed Central

    MacKay, R. S.; Low, R. J.; Parker, S.

    2017-01-01

    Frequently, a set of objects has to be evaluated by a panel of assessors, but not every object is assessed by every assessor. A problem facing such panels is how to take into account different standards among panel members and varying levels of confidence in their scores. Here, a mathematically based algorithm is developed to calibrate the scores of such assessors, addressing both of these issues. The algorithm is based on the connectivity of the graph of assessors and objects evaluated, incorporating declared confidences as weights on its edges. If the graph is sufficiently well connected, relative standards can be inferred by comparing how assessors rate objects they assess in common, weighted by the levels of confidence of each assessment. By removing these biases, ‘true’ values are inferred for all the objects. Reliability estimates for the resulting values are obtained. The algorithm is tested in two case studies: one by computer simulation and another based on realistic evaluation data. The process is compared to the simple averaging procedure in widespread use, and to Fisher's additive incomplete block analysis. It is anticipated that the algorithm will prove useful in a wide variety of situations such as evaluation of the quality of research submitted to national assessment exercises; appraisal of grant proposals submitted to funding panels; ranking of job applicants; and judgement of performances on degree courses wherein candidates can choose from lists of options. PMID:28386432

  6. Statistical analysis of synaptic transmission: model discrimination and confidence limits.

    PubMed Central

    Stricker, C; Redman, S; Daley, D

    1994-01-01

    Procedures for discriminating between competing statistical models of synaptic transmission, and for providing confidence limits on the parameters of these models, have been developed. These procedures were tested against simulated data and were used to analyze the fluctuations in synaptic currents evoked in hippocampal neurones. All models were fitted to data using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and a maximum likelihood criterion. Competing models were evaluated using the log-likelihood ratio (Wilks statistic). When the competing models were not nested, Monte Carlo sampling of the model used as the null hypothesis (H0) provided density functions against which H0 and the alternate model (H1) were tested. The statistic for the log-likelihood ratio was determined from the fit of H0 and H1 to these probability densities. This statistic was used to determine the significance level at which H0 could be rejected for the original data. When the competing models were nested, log-likelihood ratios and the chi 2 statistic were used to determine the confidence level for rejection. Once the model that provided the best statistical fit to the data was identified, many estimates for the model parameters were calculated by resampling the original data. Bootstrap techniques were then used to obtain the confidence limits of these parameters. PMID:7948672

  7. Confidence and coverage for Bland-Altman limits of agreement and their approximate confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Carkeet, Andrew; Goh, Yee Teng

    2016-09-01

    Bland and Altman described approximate methods in 1986 and 1999 for calculating confidence limits for their 95% limits of agreement, approximations which assume large subject numbers. In this paper, these approximations are compared with exact confidence intervals calculated using two-sided tolerance intervals for a normal distribution. The approximations are compared in terms of the tolerance factors themselves but also in terms of the exact confidence limits and the exact limits of agreement coverage corresponding to the approximate confidence interval methods. Using similar methods the 50th percentile of the tolerance interval are compared with the k values of 1.96 and 2, which Bland and Altman used to define limits of agreements (i.e. [Formula: see text]+/- 1.96Sd and [Formula: see text]+/- 2Sd). For limits of agreement outer confidence intervals, Bland and Altman's approximations are too permissive for sample sizes <40 (1999 approximation) and <76 (1986 approximation). For inner confidence limits the approximations are poorer, being permissive for sample sizes of <490 (1986 approximation) and all practical sample sizes (1999 approximation). Exact confidence intervals for 95% limits of agreements, based on two-sided tolerance factors, can be calculated easily based on tables and should be used in preference to the approximate methods, especially for small sample sizes.

  8. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  9. Evidence for a confidence-accuracy relationship in memory for same- and cross-race faces.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Thao B; Pezdek, Kathy; Wixted, John T

    2016-11-05

    Discrimination accuracy is usually higher for same- than for cross-race faces, a phenomenon known as the cross-race effect (CRE). According to prior research, the CRE occurs because memories for same- and cross-race faces rely on qualitatively different processes. However, according to a continuous dual-process model of recognition memory, memories that rely on qualitatively different processes do not differ in recognition accuracy when confidence is equated. Thus, although there are differences in overall same- and cross-race discrimination accuracy, confidence-specific accuracy (i.e., recognition accuracy at a particular level of confidence) may not differ. We analysed datasets from four recognition memory studies on same- and cross-race faces to test this hypothesis. Confidence ratings reliably predicted recognition accuracy when performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but not when performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Furthermore, at each level of confidence, confidence-specific accuracy for same- and cross-race faces did not significantly differ when overall performance was above chance levels (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) but significantly differed when overall performance was at chance levels (Experiment 4). Thus, under certain conditions, high-confidence same-race and cross-race identifications may be equally reliable.

  10. Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleicher, Robert E.

    2006-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge couldn't be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest that there may be important connections between the two for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.

  11. Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleicher, Robert E.

    2007-12-01

    This study examined changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge could not be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest there may be important connections between the 2 for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.

  12. Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1987-01-01

    An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

  13. ;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

    2017-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the ;degree of agreement.; Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

  14. Confidence Sets for a Change-Point.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-10-01

    probability credible set for j. In fact, even without the explicit evaluation in (1), one knows from a general theorem of Stein (1965) and Hora and...confidence sets with smallest expected measure, Ann. Statist. , 10, 1283-94. Hora , R. B. and Buehler, R. J. (1966), Fiducial theory and invariant...simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change-point problem -’-"C with zero -one observations, Biometrika 67, 79-84. Raferty, A. E. and Akman, V

  15. Simultaneous Confidence Bands for Autoregressive Spectra.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-06-01

    CONFIDENCE BANDS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE SPECTRA H. Joseph Newton Marcello Pagano Institute of Statistics Department of Biostatistics Texas A&M University...AUTHOR(4) 8. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMIUER(a) H. Joseph Newton and Marcello Pagano ONR N00014-82-MP-2001 ARU DAAG 29-80-C-0070 0. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME...Parzen (1974), Uirych and Bishop (1975), and Beamish and Priestley (1981), for example) despite 1) a continuing discussion of the problems of order

  16. Confidence as Bayesian Probability: From Neural Origins to Behavior.

    PubMed

    Meyniel, Florent; Sigman, Mariano; Mainen, Zachary F

    2015-10-07

    Research on confidence spreads across several sub-fields of psychology and neuroscience. Here, we explore how a definition of confidence as Bayesian probability can unify these viewpoints. This computational view entails that there are distinct forms in which confidence is represented and used in the brain, including distributional confidence, pertaining to neural representations of probability distributions, and summary confidence, pertaining to scalar summaries of those distributions. Summary confidence is, normatively, derived or "read out" from distributional confidence. Neural implementations of readout will trade off optimality versus flexibility of routing across brain systems, allowing confidence to serve diverse cognitive functions.

  17. On the Confidence Limit of Hilbert Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Norden

    2003-01-01

    Confidence limit is a routine requirement for Fourier spectral analysis. But this confidence limit is established based on ergodic theory: For stationary process, temporal average equals the ensemble average. Therefore, one can divide the data into n-sections and treat each section as independent realization. Most natural processes in general, and climate data in particular, are not stationary; therefore, there is a need for the Hilbert Spectral analysis for such processes. Here ergodic theory is no longer applicable. We propose to use various adjustable parameters in the shifting processes of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method to obtain an ensemble of Intrinsic Mode Function 0 sets. Based on such an ensemble, we introduce a statistical measure in. a form of confidence limits for the Intrinsic Mode Functions, and consequently, the Hilbert spectra. The criterion of selecting the various adjustable parameters is based on the orthogonality test of the resulting M F sets. Length-of-day data from 1962 to 2001 will be used to illustrate this new approach. Its implication in climate data analysis will also be discussed.

  18. Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

    2017-03-01

    The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

  19. A temporal and spatial analysis of ground-water levels for effective monitoring in Huron County, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holtschlag, David J.; Sweat, M.J.

    1999-01-01

    Quarterly water-level measurements were analyzed to assess the effectiveness of a monitoring network of 26 wells in Huron County, Michigan. Trends were identified as constant levels and autoregressive components were computed at all wells on the basis of data collected from 1993 to 1997, using structural time series analysis. Fixed seasonal components were identified at 22 wells and outliers were identified at 23 wells. The 95- percent confidence intervals were forecast for water-levels during the first and second quarters of 1998. Intervals in the first quarter were consistent with 92.3 percent of the measured values. In the second quarter, measured values were within the forecast intervals only 65.4 percent of the time. Unusually low precipitation during the second quarter is thought to have contributed to the reduced reliability of the second-quarter forecasts. Spatial interrelations among wells were investigated on the basis of the autoregressive components, which were filtered to create a set of innovation sequences that were temporally uncorrelated. The empirical covariance among the innovation sequences indicated both positive and negative spatial interrelations. The negative covariance components are considered to be physically implausible and to have resulted from random sampling error. Graphical modeling, a form of multivariate analysis, was used to model the covariance structure. Results indicate that only 29 of the 325 possible partial correlations among the water-level innovations were statistically significant. The model covariance matrix, corresponding to the model partial correlation structure, contained only positive elements. This model covariance was sequentially partitioned to compute a set of partial covariance matrices that were used to rank the effectiveness of the 26 monitoring wells from greatest to least. Results, for example, indicate that about 50 percent of the uncertainty of the water-level innovations currently monitored by the 26

  20. Evaluation of undergraduate nursing students' clinical confidence following a mental health recovery camp.

    PubMed

    Cowley, Thomas; Sumskis, Sue; Moxham, Lorna; Taylor, Ellie; Brighton, Renee; Patterson, Chris; Halcomb, Elizabeth

    2016-02-01

    In the present study, we evaluate the impact of participation in a mental health recovery camp on the clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students in dealing with individuals with mental illness. Twenty undergraduate nursing students who participated in the recovery camp completed the Mental Health Nursing Clinical Confidence Scale both before and directly after attending the camp. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Participation in the recovery camp was associated with a statistically-significant increase in students' level of overall confidence between the pretest and post-test data (P < 0.005). The results also demonstrated that students over the age of 25 years and who do not have a family history of mental illness are more likely to self-report a higher level of confidence in both the pre- and post-results. The clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students improved through participation in an immersive clinical experience within the recovery camp.

  1. The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

    PubMed

    Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

  2. Leveling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    1966-01-01

    Geodetic leveling by the U.S. Geological Survey provides a framework of accurate elevations for topographic mapping. Elevations are referred to the Sea Level Datum of 1929. Lines of leveling may be run either with automatic or with precise spirit levels, by either the center-wire or the three-wire method. For future use, the surveys are monumented with bench marks, using standard metal tablets or other marking devices. The elevations are adjusted by least squares or other suitable method and are published in lists of control.

  3. Mediated Sources of Public Confidence: Lazarsfeld and Merton Revisited.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simonson, Peter

    1999-01-01

    Contributes to scholarship on mass media's role in generating public confidence. Discusses the current crisis of confidence, confidence as "faith-together," varied routes by which media confer status, and ways both journalistic expose and public debate can generate cynicism and undercut public confidence. Sketches three types of civil…

  4. The Relationship Between Clinicians' Confidence and Accuracy, and the Influence of Child Characteristics, in the Screening of Autism Spectrum Disorder.

    PubMed

    Hedley, Darren; Brewer, Neil; Nevill, Rose; Uljarević, Mirko; Butter, Eric; Mulick, James A

    2016-07-01

    The study examined the confidence accuracy relationship, and the influence of child characteristics on clinician confidence, when predicting a diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder during screening of 125 referred children aged under 3.5 years. The diagnostic process included observation, interview, language and developmental testing. Clinical judgement accuracy was compared against final diagnosis for high and low confidence levels (with confidence assessed on a 0-100 % scale). We identified a significant CA relationship with predictive accuracy highest at confidence levels of 90-100 %. Parent report of unusual behaviors was the only significant independent predictor of confidence. Clinicians' confidence may be important when evaluating decisions to refer, or not to refer, children for further diagnostic assessment.

  5. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  6. Triage of OCR results using confidence scores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarkar, Prateek; Baird, Henry S.; Henderson, John

    2001-12-01

    We describe a technique for modeling the character recognition accuracy of an OCR system -- treated as a black box -- on a particular page of printed text based on an examination only of the output top-choice character classifications and, for each, a confidence score such as is supplied by many commercial OCR systems. Latent conditional independence (LCI) models perform better on this task, in our experience, than naive uniform thresholding methods. Given a sufficiently large and representative dataset of OCR (errorful) output and manually proofed (correct) text, we can automatically infer LCI models that exhibit a useful degree of reliability. A collaboration between a PARC research group and a Xerox legacy conversion service bureau has demonstrated that such models can significantly improve the productivity of human proofing staff by triaging -- that is, selecting to bypass manual inspection -- pages whose estimated OCR accuracy exceeds a threshold chosen to ensure that a customer-specified per-page accuracy target will be met with sufficient confidence. We report experimental results on over 1400 pages. Our triage software tools are running in production and will be applied to more than 5 million pages of multi-lingual text.

  7. Specs add confidence in use of wet welding. [Underwater welding

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1984-02-01

    Underwater wet welding can now be utilized with the same confidence as dry welding, provided certain guidelines are followed. A new electrode is discussed that has been delivering exceptionally high quality welds by a diving firm in Houston. With the issuance of the American Welding Society's specifications (ANS/LAWS D3.6-83) much of the confusion surrounding underwater welding should be eliminated. The new specifications establish the levels of quality for underwater welding and gives everyone in the business a common language.

  8. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  9. Comparing median lethal concentration values using confidence interval overlap or ratio tests.

    PubMed

    Wheeler, Matthew W; Park, Robert M; Bailer, A John

    2006-05-01

    Experimenters in toxicology often compare the concentration-response relationship between two distinct populations using the median lethal concentration (LC50). This comparison is sometimes done by calculating the 95% confidence interval for the LC50 for each population, concluding that no significant difference exists if the two confidence intervals overlap. A more appropriate test compares the ratio of the LC50s to 1 or the log(LC50 ratio) to 0. In this ratio test, we conclude that no difference exists in LC50s if the confidence interval for the ratio of the LC50s contains 1 or the confidence interval for the log(LC50 ratio) contains 0. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the confidence interval overlap test to the ratio test. The confidence interval overlap test performs substantially below the nominal alpha = 0.05 level, closer to p = 0.005; therefore, it has considerably less power for detecting true differences compared to the ratio test. The ratio-based method exhibited better type I error rates and superior power properties in comparison to the confidence interval overlap test. Thus, a ratio-based statistical procedure is preferred to using simple overlap of two independently derived confidence intervals.

  10. Confidence interval based parameter estimation--a new SOCR applet and activity.

    PubMed

    Christou, Nicolas; Dinov, Ivo D

    2011-01-01

    Many scientific investigations depend on obtaining data-driven, accurate, robust and computationally-tractable parameter estimates. In the face of unavoidable intrinsic variability, there are different algorithmic approaches, prior assumptions and fundamental principles for computing point and interval estimates. Efficient and reliable parameter estimation is critical in making inference about observable experiments, summarizing process characteristics and prediction of experimental behaviors. In this manuscript, we demonstrate simulation, construction, validation and interpretation of confidence intervals, under various assumptions, using the interactive web-based tools provided by the Statistics Online Computational Resource (http://www.SOCR.ucla.edu). Specifically, we present confidence interval examples for population means, with known or unknown population standard deviation; population variance; population proportion (exact and approximate), as well as confidence intervals based on bootstrapping or the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Like all SOCR resources, these confidence interval resources may be openly accessed via an Internet-connected Java-enabled browser. The SOCR confidence interval applet enables the user to empirically explore and investigate the effects of the confidence-level, the sample-size and parameter of interest on the corresponding confidence interval. Two applications of the new interval estimation computational library are presented. The first one is a simulation of confidence interval estimating the US unemployment rate and the second application demonstrates the computations of point and interval estimates of hippocampal surface complexity for Alzheimers disease patients, mild cognitive impairment subjects and asymptomatic controls.

  11. How do I interpret a confidence interval?

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Sheila F; Yi, Qi Long

    2016-07-01

    A 95% confidence interval (CI) of the mean is a range with an upper and lower number calculated from a sample. Because the true population mean is unknown, this range describes possible values that the mean could be. If multiple samples were drawn from the same population and a 95% CI calculated for each sample, we would expect the population mean to be found within 95% of these CIs. CIs are sensitive to variability in the population (spread of values) and sample size. When used to compare the means of two or more treatment groups, a CI shows the magnitude of a difference between groups. This is helpful in understanding both the statistical significance and the clinical significance of a treatment. In this article we describe the basic principles of CIs and their interpretation.

  12. Modal confidence factor in vibration testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibrahim, S. R.

    1978-01-01

    The modal confidence factor (MCF) is a number calculated for every identified mode for a structure under test. The MCF varies from 0.00 for a distorted nonlinear, or noise mode to 100.0 for a pure structural mode. The theory of the MCF is based on the correlation that exists between the modal deflection at a certain station and the modal deflection at the same station delayed in time. The theory and application of the MCF are illustrated by two experiments. The first experiment deals with simulated responses from a two-degree-of-freedom system with 20%, 40%, and 100% noise added. The second experiment was run on a generalized payload model. The free decay response from the payload model contained 22% noise.

  13. Covariate-adjusted confidence interval for the intraclass correlation coefficient.

    PubMed

    Shoukri, Mohamed M; Donner, Allan; El-Dali, Abdelmoneim

    2013-09-01

    A crucial step in designing a new study is to estimate the required sample size. For a design involving cluster sampling, the appropriate sample size depends on the so-called design effect, which is a function of the average cluster size and the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC). It is well-known that under the framework of hierarchical and generalized linear models, a reduction in residual error may be achieved by including risk factors as covariates. In this paper we show that the covariate design, indicating whether the covariates are measured at the cluster level or at the within-cluster subject level affects the estimation of the ICC, and hence the design effect. Therefore, the distinction between these two types of covariates should be made at the design stage. In this paper we use the nested-bootstrap method to assess the accuracy of the estimated ICC for continuous and binary response variables under different covariate structures. The codes of two SAS macros are made available by the authors for interested readers to facilitate the construction of confidence intervals for the ICC. Moreover, using Monte Carlo simulations we evaluate the relative efficiency of the estimators and evaluate the accuracy of the coverage probabilities of a 95% confidence interval on the population ICC. The methodology is illustrated using a published data set of blood pressure measurements taken on family members.

  14. Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

  15. Students' Confidence in the Ability to Transfer Basic Math Skills in Introductory Physics and Chemistry Courses at a Community College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Reginald

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the confidence levels that community college students have in transferring basic math skills to science classes, as well as any factors that influence their confidence levels. This study was conducted with 196 students at a community college in central Mississippi. The study was conducted during the month…

  16. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    PubMed Central

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  17. A Robust Confidence Interval for Samples of Five Observations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-11-01

    A robust confidence interval using biweights for the case of five observations is proposed when the underlying distribution has somewhat heavier...probabilities, the intervals proposed are highly efficient, in terms of the expected length of the confidence interval . (Author)

  18. Germany and America: Crisis of confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Asmus, R.D.

    1991-02-01

    The paper examines the deterioration in German-American relations. The reasons for this downturn in German-American relations are quite simple. Washington views the Persian Gulf crisis as a defining moment in European-American relations and in the creation of a new world order. It is also the first diplomatic test of a unified Germany and a new German-American relationship. It is a test that Germany is thus far seen as having failed for three reasons. First, from the outset many Americans sensed that Germans did not comprehend what this crisis meant for the United States. A second and, in many ways, more worrying factor was the growing sense that the Germans were not being good Europeans. The third and most serious American concern, however, was the unsettling appearance of a very selective German definition of collective defense and common security. The result has been a crisis of confidence in the performance of the German political elite that goes beyond the problems in German-American relations during the early 1980s and the INF debate.

  19. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    PubMed

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  20. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  1. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence

    PubMed Central

    Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors’ opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors’ opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual’s confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors’ opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation. PMID:28264038

  2. A METHOD OF DETERMINING A CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR AVAILABILITY

    DTIC Science & Technology

    This report presents a method of determining a confidence interval for availability when it is estimated from the mean time between equipment...for a confidence interval for availability. An example is included to demonstrate the procedure of placing a confidence interval about the estimated availability.

  3. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no...

  4. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to...

  5. Relations among affect, abstinence motivation and confidence, and daily smoking lapse risk.

    PubMed

    Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M; Bold, Krysten W; Chapman, Gretchen B; McCarthy, Danielle E

    2014-06-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12-24 hr using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. One hundred and three adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries postquit. Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hr later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours although momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hr. Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments.

  6. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  7. Self-Confidence in Women with and without Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Amini, Leila; Valian, Kobra; Sdeghi Avvalshahr, Homa; Montaeri, Ali

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To compare self-confidence in woman with and without PCOS according to their ages. Materials and methods: This comparative study was conducted on 400 women (100 with and 300 without PCOS) in clinics of Shahid Akbar-Abadi and Firouzgar Hospitals, from July 2012 to February 2013. SPSS-16 used for statistical analysis (SPSS; SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Results: This study showed 98% of PCOS and 93% in non-PCOS groups had average self-confidence with scores of 15-25. None of women in PCOS group and 6.7% of non-PCOS group had high self-confidence (score>25). There was a significant difference between two groups in term of self-confidence level (p< 0.001). There was no significant difference in self-confidence between age group ≤ 30 and age group> 30 in both group, but in PCOS group, self-confidence were significantly higher in both age group under 30 (p<0.0001) and 30 and higher (p<0.0001). Conclusion: Impaired self-confidence in PCOS groups (under 30 and 30 and higher age groups) in comparison with related value of non-PCOS group shows that mental health status in women with PCOS requires urgent psychological attention and support. PMID:25628720

  8. Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments.

    PubMed

    Ais, Joaquín; Zylberberg, Ariel; Barttfeld, Pablo; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-01-01

    We examine which aspects of the confidence distributions - its shape, its bias toward higher or lower values, and its ability to distinguish correct from erred trials - are idiosyncratic of the who (individual specificity), the when (variability across days) and the what (task specificity). Measuring confidence across different sessions of four different perceptual tasks we show that: (1) Confidence distributions are virtually identical when measured in different days for the same subject and the same task, constituting a subjective fingerprint, (2) The capacity of confidence reports to distinguish correct from incorrect responses is only modestly (but significantly) correlated when compared across tasks, (3) Confidence distributions are very similar for tasks that involve different sensory modalities but have similar structure, (4) Confidence accuracy is independent of the mean and width of the confidence distribution, (5) The mean of the confidence distribution (an individual's confidence bias) constitutes the most efficient indicator to infer a subject's identity from confidence reports and (6) Confidence bias measured in simple perceptual decisions correlates with an individual's optimism bias measured with standard questionnaire.

  9. Students' confidence in the ability to transfer basic math skills in introductory physics and chemistry courses at a community college

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, Reginald

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the confidence levels that community college students have in transferring basic math skills to science classes, as well as any factors that influence their confidence levels. This study was conducted with 196 students at a community college in central Mississippi. The study was conducted during the month of November after all of the students had taken their midterm exams and received midterm grades. The instrument used in this survey was developed and validated by the researcher. The instrument asks the students to rate how confident they were in working out specific math problems and how confident they were in working problems using those specific math skills in physics and chemistry. The instrument also provided an example problem for every confidence item. Results revealed that students' demographics were significant predictors in confidence scores. Students in the 18-22 year old range were less confident in solving math problems than others. Students who had retaken a math course were less confident than those who had not. Chemistry students were less confident in solving math problems than those in physics courses. Chemistry II students were less confident than those in Chemistry I and Principals of Chemistry. Students were least confident in solving problems involving logarithms and the most confident in solving algebra problems. In general, students felt that their math courses did not prepare them for the math problems encountered in science courses. There was no significant difference in confidence between students who had completed their math homework online and those who had completed their homework on paper. The researcher recommends that chemistry educators find ways of incorporating more mathematics in their courses especially logarithms and slope. Furthermore, math educators should incorporate more chemistry related applications to math class. Results of hypotheses testing, conclusions, discussions, and

  10. Confidence through consensus: a neural mechanism for uncertainty monitoring.

    PubMed

    Paz, Luciano; Insabato, Andrea; Zylberberg, Ariel; Deco, Gustavo; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-02-24

    Models that integrate sensory evidence to a threshold can explain task accuracy, response times and confidence, yet it is still unclear how confidence is encoded in the brain. Classic models assume that confidence is encoded in some form of balance between the evidence integrated in favor and against the selected option. However, recent experiments that measure the sensory evidence's influence on choice and confidence contradict these classic models. We propose that the decision is taken by many loosely coupled modules each of which represent a stochastic sample of the sensory evidence integral. Confidence is then encoded in the dispersion between modules. We show that our proposal can account for the well established relations between confidence, and stimuli discriminability and reaction times, as well as the fluctuations influence on choice and confidence.

  11. Relating confidence to information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-12-02

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing security risk results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to determine a qualitative measure of confidence in a qualitative reasoning result from the available information uncertainty in the result using membership values in the fuzzy sets of confidence. In this study information uncertainty is quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values. Measured values of information uncertainty in each result is used to obtain the confidence. The determined confidence values are used to compare competing scenarios and understand the influences on the desired result.

  12. Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Leif; Box, Neil; Carter, Katrina; DiFilippo, Denise; Harrington, Sean; Jackson, David; Lutomski, Michael

    2012-01-01

    There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.

  13. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes.

    PubMed

    Francisco-Fernández, Mario; Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper.

  14. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper. PMID:26828651

  15. Estimates of future inundation of salt marshes in response to sea-level rise in and around Acadia National Park, Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nielsen, Martha G.; Dudley, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    Salt marshes are ecosystems that provide many important ecological functions in the Gulf of Maine. The U.S. Geological Survey investigated salt marshes in and around Acadia National Park from Penobscot Bay to the Schoodic Peninsula to map the potential for landward migration of marshes using a static inundation model of a sea-level rise scenario of 60 centimeters (cm; 2 feet). The resulting inundation contours can be used by resource managers to proactively adapt to sea-level rise by identifying and targeting low-lying coastal areas adjacent to salt marshes for conservation or further investigation, and to identify risks to infrastructure in the coastal zone. For this study, the mapping of static inundation was based on digital elevation models derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) topographic data collected in October 2010. Land-surveyed control points were used to evaluate the accuracy of the LiDAR data in the study area, yielding a root mean square error of 11.3 cm. An independent accuracy assessment of the LiDAR data specific to salt-marsh land surfaces indicated a root mean square error of 13.3 cm and 95-percent confidence interval of ± 26.0 cm. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models and digital color aerial photography, taken during low tide conditions in 2008, with a pixel resolution of 0.5 meters, were used to identify the highest elevation of the land surface at each salt marsh in the study area. Inundation contours for 60-cm of sea-level rise were delineated above the highest marsh elevation for each marsh. Confidence interval contours (95-percent,± 26.0 cm) were delineated above and below the 60-cm inundation contours, and artificial structures, such as roads and bridges, that may present barriers to salt-marsh migration were mapped. This study delineated 114 salt marshes totaling 340 hectares (ha), ranging in size from 0.11 ha (marshes less than 0.2 ha were mapped only if they were on Acadia National Park property) to 52 ha, with a median

  16. Determination of land subsidence related to ground-water-level declines using Global Positioning System and leveling surveys in Antelope Valley, Los Angeles and Kern counties, California, 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ikehara, M.E.; Phillips, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    A large-scale, land-subsidence monitoring network for Antelope Valley, California, was established, and positions and elevations for 85 stations were measured using Global Positioning System geodetic surveying in spring 1992. The 95-percent confidence (2@) level of accuracy for the elevations calculated for a multiple-constraint adjustment generally ranged from +0.010 meter (0.032 foot) to +0.024 meter (0.078 foot). The magnitudes and rates of land subsidence as of 1992 were calculated for several periods for 218 bench marks throughout Antelope Valley. The maximum measured magnitude of land subsidence that occurred between 1926 and 1992 was 6.0 feet (1.83 meters) at BM 474 near Avenue I and Sierra Highway. Measured or estimated subsidence of 2-7 feet (.61-2.l3 meters) had occurred in a 210- square-mile (542-square-kilometer) area of Antelope Valley, generally bounded by Avenue K, Avenue A, 90th Street West, and 120th Street East, during the same period. Land subsidence in Antelope Valley is caused by aquifer-system compaction, which is related to ground-water-level declines and the presence of fine-grained, compressible sediments. Comparison of potentiomethric-surface, water-level decline, and subsidence-rate maps for several periods indicated a general correlation between water-level declines and the distribution and rate of subsidence in the Lancaster ground-water subbasin. A conservative estimate of the amount of the reduction in storage capacity of the aquifer system in the Lancaster subbasin is about 50,000 acre-feet in the area that has been affected by more than one foot (.30 meters) of subsidence as of 1992. Information on the history of ground-water levels and the distribution and thickness of fine-grained compressible sediments can be used to mitigate continued land subsidence. Future monitoring of ground-water levels and land-surface elevations in subsidence-sensitive regions of Antelope Valley may be an effective means to manage land subsidence.

  17. Dead certain: confidence and conservatism predict aggression in simulated international crisis decision-making.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Dominic D P; McDermott, Rose; Cowden, Jon; Tingley, Dustin

    2012-03-01

    Evolutionary psychologists have suggested that confidence and conservatism promoted aggression in our ancestral past, and that this may have been an adaptive strategy given the prevailing costs and benefits of conflict. However, in modern environments, where the costs and benefits of conflict can be very different owing to the involvement of mass armies, sophisticated technology, and remote leadership, evolved tendencies toward high levels of confidence and conservatism may continue to be a contributory cause of aggression despite leading to greater costs and fewer benefits. The purpose of this paper is to test whether confidence and conservatism are indeed associated with greater levels of aggression-in an explicitly political domain. We present the results of an experiment examining people's levels of aggression in response to hypothetical international crises (a hostage crisis, a counter-insurgency campaign, and a coup). Levels of aggression (which range from concession to negotiation to military attack) were significantly predicted by subjects' (1) confidence that their chosen policy would succeed, (2) score on a liberal-conservative scale, (3) political party affiliation, and (4) preference for the use of military force in real-world U.S. policy toward Iraq and Iran. We discuss the possible adaptive and maladaptive implications of confidence and conservatism for the prospects of war and peace in the modern world.

  18. Measuring Patterns of Surgeon Confidence Using a Novel Assessment Tool.

    PubMed

    Farrell, Timothy M; Ghaderi, Iman; McPhail, Lindsee E; Alger, Amy R; Meyers, Michael O; Meyer, Anthony A

    2016-01-01

    Confidence should increase during surgical training and practice. However, few data exist regarding confidence of surgeons across this continuum. Confidence may develop differently in clinical and personal domains, or may erode as specialization or age restricts practice. A reliable scale of confidence is needed to track this competency. A novel survey was distributed to surgeons in private and academic settings. One hundred and thirty-four respondents completed this cross-sectional survey. Surgeons reported anticipated reactions to clinical scenarios within three patient care domains (acute inpatient, nonacute inpatient, and outpatient) and in personal spheres. Confidence scores were plotted against years of experience. Curves of best fit were generated and trends assessed. A subgroup completed a second survey after four years to assess the survey's reliability over time. During residency, there is steep improvement in confidence reported by surgeons in all clinical domains, with further increase for inpatient domains during transition into practice. Confidence in personal spheres also increases quickly during residency and thereafter. The surgeon confidence scale captures the expected acquisition of confidence during early surgical experience, and will have value in following trends in surgeon confidence as training and practice patterns change.

  19. Fatigue, Sleep Loss, and Confidence in Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baranski, Joseph V.

    2007-01-01

    Sixty-four adults participated in a study examining the accuracy of metacognitive judgments during 28 hr of sleep deprivation (SD) and continuous cognitive work. Three tasks were studied (perceptual comparison, general knowledge, and mental addition), collectively spanning a range of cognitive abilities and levels of susceptibility to SD.…

  20. 75 FR 81037 - Waste Confidence Decision Update

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-23

    ... commercial high-level radioactive waste and spent fuel generated in any reactor when necessary. Finding 4: The Commission finds reasonable assurance that, if necessary, spent fuel generated in any reactor can... life for operation (which may include the term of a revised or renewed license) of that reactor in...

  1. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    PubMed

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.

  2. Confidence Interval Methodology for Ratio Means (CIM4RM)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-08-01

    RDECOIW 40 Years of SAA Excellence in Analysis AMSAA TECHNICAL REPORT NO. TR-2010-35 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL METHODOLOGY FOR RATIO MEANS (CIM4RM...COVERED Technical Report 4 TITLE AND SUBTITLE Confidence Interval Methodology for Ratio Means (CIM4RM) 5 FUNDING NUMBERS 6 AUTHOR!SI John Nierwinski...LIST OF ACRONYMS CIM4RM - Confidence Interval Methodology for Ratio Means MH - Man-Hours MR - Maintenance Ratio PCM - Parts Cost per Mile CI

  3. A variance based confidence criterion for ERA identified modal parameters. [Eigensystem Realization Algorithm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Longman, Richard W.; Juang, Jer-Nan

    1988-01-01

    The realization theory is developed in a systematic manner for the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) used for system identification. First, perturbation results are obtained which describe the linearized changes in the identified parameters resulting from small change in the data. Formulas are then derived that can be used to evaluate the variance of each of the identified parameters, assuming that the noise level is sufficiently low to allow the application of linearized results. These variances can be converted to give confidence intervals for each of the parameters for any chosen confidence level.

  4. 40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart Kk of... - Data Quality Objective and Lower Confidence Limit Approaches for Alternative Capture Efficiency...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... submitted the following results and the calculation shown in Equation 12: Run CE 1 94.2 2 97.6 3 90.5... for alternative CE protocols and test methods are presented in section 5. The recommended... Figure 1). This ensures that 95 percent of the time, when the DQO is met, the actual CE value will be...

  5. Mass media and heterogeneous bounds of confidence in continuous opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pineda, M.; Buendía, G. M.

    2015-02-01

    This work focuses on the effects of an external mass media on continuous opinion dynamics with heterogeneous bounds of confidence. We modified the original Deffuant et al. and Hegselmann and Krause models to incorporate both, an external mass media and a heterogeneous distribution of confidence levels. We analysed two cases, one where only two bounds of confidence are taken into account, and other where each individual of the system has her/his own characteristic level of confidence. We found that, in the absence of mass media, diversity of bounds of confidence can improve the capacity of the systems to reach consensus. We show that the persuasion capacity of the external message is optimal for intermediate levels of heterogeneity. Our simulations also show the existence, for certain parameter values, of a counter-intuitive effect in which the persuasion capacity of the mass media decreases if the mass media intensity is too large. We discuss similarities and differences between the two heterogeneous versions of these continuous opinion dynamic models under the influence of mass media.

  6. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  7. Assessment of elderly people in general practice. 3. Confiding relationships.

    PubMed Central

    Iliffe, S; Haines, A; Stein, A; Gallivan, S

    1991-01-01

    Little is known about the importance of confiding relationships in elderly people. Associations between lack of confiding relationships and depression, lifestyle characteristics, medication use, and contacts with doctors were studied by interviewing a random sample of 235 elderly people aged 75 years and over registered with nine general practices in inner London. It was found that men were not significantly more likely than women to report lack of confiding relationships. Married people of both sexes were more likely to have confiding relationships than those who were single, separated, divorced or widowed. Depression was not associated with lack of a confiding relationship, but those lacking such relationships were significantly more likely to smoke, and were prescribed significantly more medicines than those with confiding relationships. Individuals without a confiding relationship were significantly less likely to admit to any alcohol consumption in the previous three months, suggesting that alcohol consumption in this age group is largely a social phenomenon. Confiding relationships do not appear to confer strong protection against depression and a question on confiding relationships should not therefore be routinely incorporated into surveillance programmes for elderly people in the community. PMID:1807305

  8. Correlating student knowledge and confidence using a graded knowledge survey to assess student learning in a general microbiology classroom.

    PubMed

    Favazzo, Lacey; Willford, John D; Watson, Rachel M

    2014-12-01

    Knowledge surveys are a type of confidence survey in which students rate their confidence in their ability to answer questions rather than answering the questions. These surveys have been discussed as a tool to evaluate student in-class or curriculum-wide learning. However, disagreement exists as to whether confidence is actually an accurate measure of knowledge. With the concomitant goals of assessing content-based learning objectives and addressing this disagreement, we present herein a pretest/posttest knowledge survey study that demonstrates a significant difference correctness on graded test questions at different levels of reported confidence in a multi-semester timeframe. Questions were organized into Bloom's taxonomy, allowing for the data collected to further provide statistical analyses on strengths and deficits in various levels of Bloom's reasoning with regard to mean correctness. Collectively, students showed increasing confidence and correctness in all levels of thought but struggled with synthesis-level questions. However, when students were only asked to rate confidence and not answer the accompanying test questions, they reported significantly higher confidence than the control group which was asked to do both. This indicates that when students do not attempt to answer questions, they have significantly greater confidence in their ability to answer those questions. Additionally, when students rate only confidence without answering the question, resolution across Bloom's levels of reasoning is lost. Based upon our findings, knowledge surveys can be an effective tool for assessment of both breadth and depth of knowledge, but may require students to answer questions in addition to rating confidence to provide the most accurate data.

  9. Correlating Student Knowledge and Confidence Using a Graded Knowledge Survey to Assess Student Learning in a General Microbiology Classroom †

    PubMed Central

    Favazzo, Lacey; Willford, John D.; Watson, Rachel M.

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge surveys are a type of confidence survey in which students rate their confidence in their ability to answer questions rather than answering the questions. These surveys have been discussed as a tool to evaluate student in-class or curriculum-wide learning. However, disagreement exists as to whether confidence is actually an accurate measure of knowledge. With the concomitant goals of assessing content-based learning objectives and addressing this disagreement, we present herein a pretest/posttest knowledge survey study that demonstrates a significant difference correctness on graded test questions at different levels of reported confidence in a multi-semester timeframe. Questions were organized into Bloom’s taxonomy, allowing for the data collected to further provide statistical analyses on strengths and deficits in various levels of Bloom’s reasoning with regard to mean correctness. Collectively, students showed increasing confidence and correctness in all levels of thought but struggled with synthesis-level questions. However, when students were only asked to rate confidence and not answer the accompanying test questions, they reported significantly higher confidence than the control group which was asked to do both. This indicates that when students do not attempt to answer questions, they have significantly greater confidence in their ability to answer those questions. Additionally, when students rate only confidence without answering the question, resolution across Bloom’s levels of reasoning is lost. Based upon our findings, knowledge surveys can be an effective tool for assessment of both breadth and depth of knowledge, but may require students to answer questions in addition to rating confidence to provide the most accurate data. PMID:25574291

  10. The Meaning and Utility of Confidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-11-01

    certainty associated with it will be discussed in the following sections. A.3.1 The Blood Cholesterol Example. Assume that I wish to determine my blood... cholesterol level (BCL). The laboratory where I go has a testing machine, but it has been found to produce somewhat erratic results. In light of this...TEKA ATTN: L-389 B WEINSTEIN ATTN: TET ATTN: L-389 F EBY ATTN: TEWD ATTN: L-389 G STAEHLE ATTN: TEZN MAJ TOM HERRING ATTN: L-389 P EBERT A’’N: "-ZN

  11. Method and system for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location

    DOEpatents

    Karnowski, Thomas P [Knoxville, TN; Tobin, Jr., Kenneth W.; Muthusamy Govindasamy, Vijaya Priya [Knoxville, TN; Chaum, Edward [Memphis, TN

    2012-07-10

    A method for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location that includes analyzing a retinal image and determining at least two sets of coordinates locating an optic disc in the retinal image. The sets of coordinates can be determined using first and second image analysis techniques that are different from one another. An accuracy parameter can be calculated and compared to a primary risk cut-off value. A high confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is less than the primary risk cut-off value and a low confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is greater than the primary risk cut-off value. The primary risk cut-off value being selected to represent an acceptable risk of misdiagnosis of a disease having retinal manifestations by the automated technique.

  12. The use of latin hypercube sampling for the efficient estimation of confidence intervals

    SciTech Connect

    Grabaskas, D.; Denning, R.; Aldemir, T.; Nakayama, M. K.

    2012-07-01

    Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) has long been used as a way of assuring adequate sampling of the tails of distributions in a Monte Carlo analysis and provided the framework for the uncertainty analysis performed in the NUREG-1150 risk assessment. However, this technique has not often been used in the performance of regulatory analyses due to the inability to establish confidence levels on the quantiles of the output distribution. Recent work has demonstrated a method that makes this possible. This method is compared to the procedure of crude Monte Carlo using order statistics, which is currently used to establish confidence levels. The results of several statistical examples demonstrate that the LHS confidence interval method can provide a more accurate and precise solution, but issues remain when applying the technique generally. (authors)

  13. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  14. Confidence and memory: assessing positive and negative correlations.

    PubMed

    Roediger, Henry L; DeSoto, K Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The capacity to learn and remember surely evolved to help animals solve problems in their quest to reproduce and survive. In humans we assume that metacognitive processes also evolved, so that we know when to trust what we remember (i.e., when we have high confidence in our memories) and when not to (when we have low confidence). However this latter feature has been questioned by researchers, with some finding a high correlation between confidence and accuracy in reports from memory and others finding little to no correlation. In two experiments we report a recognition memory paradigm that, using the same materials (categorised lists), permits the study of positive correlations, zero correlations, and negative correlations between confidence and accuracy within the same procedure. We had subjects study words from semantic categories with the five items most frequently produced in norms omitted from the list; later, subjects were given an old/new recognition test and made confidence ratings on their judgements. Although the correlation between confidence and accuracy for studied items was generally positive, the correlation for the five omitted items was negative in some methods of analysis. We pinpoint the similarity between lures and targets as creating inversions between confidence and accuracy in memory. We argue that, while confidence is generally a useful indicant of accuracy in reports from memory, in certain environmental circumstances even adaptive processes can foster illusions of memory. Thus understanding memory illusions is similar to understanding perceptual illusions: Processes that are usually adaptive can go awry under certain circumstances.

  15. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  16. A Note on Confidence Interval Estimation and Margin of Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilliland, Dennis; Melfi, Vince

    2010-01-01

    Confidence interval estimation is a fundamental technique in statistical inference. Margin of error is used to delimit the error in estimation. Dispelling misinterpretations that teachers and students give to these terms is important. In this note, we give examples of the confusion that can arise in regard to confidence interval estimation and…

  17. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  18. A (revised) confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaubaillon, J.

    2016-01-01

    A confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers is presented. The goal is to provide users with information regarding the way the forecasting is performed, so several degrees of confidence is achieved. This paper presents the meaning of the index coding system.

  19. True and false memories, parietal cortex, and confidence judgments.

    PubMed

    Urgolites, Zhisen J; Smith, Christine N; Squire, Larry R

    2015-11-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory). Accordingly, it has often been difficult to know whether a finding is related to memory confidence or memory accuracy. In the current study, participants made recognition memory judgments with confidence ratings in response to previously studied scenes and novel scenes. The left hippocampus and 16 other brain regions distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were different for the two conditions. Only three regions (all in the parietal cortex) distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were equated. These findings illustrate the utility of taking confidence ratings into account when identifying brain regions associated with true and false memories. Neural correlates of true and false memories are most easily interpreted when confidence ratings are similar for the two kinds of memories.

  20. Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

  1. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  2. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  3. Lower Confidence Interval Bounds for Coherent Systems with Cyclic Components

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-09-01

    Three lower confidence interval estimation procedures for system reliability of coherent systems with cyclic components are developed and their...failure times and applied to yield a lower confidence interval procedures for the reliability of coherent systems with cyclic and continuously operating components.

  4. New Confidence Interval Estimators Using Standardized Time Series.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-12-01

    We develop new confidence interval estimators for the underlying mean of a stationary simulation process. These estimators can be viewed as...generalizations of Schruben’s so-called standardized time series area confidence interval estimators. Various properties of the new estimators are given.

  5. Information and Communication: Tools for Increasing Confidence in the Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    Beginning with a review of signs and signals of public attitudes toward American education over the last 15 years, this paper analyzes some concerns regarding public confidence in public schools. Following a brief introduction, issues involved in the definition and behavioral attributes of confidence are mentioned. A synopsis of three approaches…

  6. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    PubMed

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  7. Development of Confidence in Child Behavior Management through Role Playing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kress, Gerard C., Jr.; Ehrlichs, Melvin A.

    1990-01-01

    In a preclinical course in pediatric dentistry, 76 students were taught child behavior management through role playing of 7-10 common management situations. Pre- and postcourse measures of student confidence found that, although older students were more confident, all gained significantly from the training. Other student characteristics were also…

  8. Computer Use, Confidence, Attitudes, and Knowledge: A Causal Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Tamar; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

    1998-01-01

    Introduces a causal model which links measures of computer experience, computer-related attitudes, computer-related confidence, and perceived computer-based knowledge. The causal model suggests that computer use has a positive effect on perceived computer self-confidence, as well as on computer-related attitudes. Questionnaires were administered…

  9. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  10. An Application of the Poisson Race Model to Confidence Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merkle, Edgar C.; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2006-01-01

    In tasks as diverse as stock market predictions and jury deliberations, a person's feelings of confidence in the appropriateness of different choices often impact that person's final choice. The current study examines the mathematical modeling of confidence calibration in a simple dual-choice task. Experiments are motivated by an accumulator…

  11. Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

  12. Supplementary Eye Field Encodes Confidence in Decisions Under Risk.

    PubMed

    So, NaYoung; Stuphorn, Veit

    2016-02-01

    Choices are made with varying degrees of confidence, a cognitive signal representing the subjective belief in the optimality of the choice. Confidence has been mostly studied in the context of perceptual judgments, in which choice accuracy can be measured using objective criteria. Here, we study confidence in subjective value-based decisions. We recorded in the supplementary eye field (SEF) of monkeys performing a gambling task, where they had to use subjective criteria for placing bets. We found neural signals in the SEF that explicitly represent choice confidence independent from reward expectation. This confidence signal appeared after the choice and diminished before the choice outcome. Most of this neuronal activity was negatively correlated with confidence, and was strongest in trials on which the monkey spontaneously withdrew his choice. Such confidence-related activity indicates that the SEF not only guides saccade selection, but also evaluates the likelihood that the choice was optimal. This internal evaluation influences decisions concerning the willingness to bear later costs that follow from the choice or to avoid them. More generally, our findings indicate that choice confidence is an integral component of all forms of decision-making, whether they are based on perceptual evidence or on value estimations.

  13. Predictions Shape Confidence in Right Inferior Frontal Gyrus.

    PubMed

    Sherman, Maxine T; Seth, Anil K; Kanai, Ryota

    2016-10-05

    It is clear that prior expectations shape perceptual decision-making, yet their contribution to the construction of subjective decision confidence remains largely unexplored. We recorded fMRI data while participants made perceptual decisions and confidence judgments, manipulating perceptual prior expectations while controlling for potential confounds of attention. Results show that subjective confidence increases as expectations increasingly support the decision, and that this relationship is associated with BOLD activity in right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG). Specifically, rIFG is sensitive to the discrepancy between expectation and decision (mismatch), and higher mismatch responses are associated with lower decision confidence. Connectivity analyses revealed expectancy information to be represented in bilateral orbitofrontal cortex and sensory signals to be represented in intracalcarine sulcus. Together, our results indicate that predictive information is integrated into subjective confidence in rIFG, and reveal an occipital-frontal network that constructs confidence from top-down and bottom-up signals. This interpretation was further supported by exploratory findings that the white matter density of right orbitofrontal cortex negatively predicted its respective contribution to the construction of confidence. Our findings advance our understanding of the neural basis of subjective perceptual processes by revealing an occipitofrontal functional network that integrates prior beliefs into the construction of confidence.

  14. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    PubMed

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2016-09-29

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often assumed that both recognition decisions and confidence judgments in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition tests depend on participants' assessments of a difference in strength of memory evidence supporting the 2 alternatives-the relative account. In the present study we focus on the basis of confidence judgments and we assess the relative account of confidence against the absolute account of confidence, by which in assigning confidence participants consider only strength of memory evidence supporting the chosen alternative. The results of the study show that confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition decisions is higher when memory evidence is stronger for the chosen alternative and also when memory evidence is stronger for the unchosen alternative. These patterns of results are consistent with the absolute account of confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition but they are inconsistent with the relative account. (PsycINFO Database Record

  15. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  16. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  17. Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

    PubMed Central

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

  18. Mortality rate and confidence interval estimation in humanitarian emergencies.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Kevin; Hossain, S M Moazzem; Woodruff, Bradley A

    2010-01-01

    Surveys are conducted frequently in humanitarian emergencies to assess the health status of the population. Most often, they employ complex sample designs, such as cluster sampling. Mortality is an indicator commonly estimated in such surveys. Confidence limits provide information on the precision of the estimate and it is important to ensure that confidence limits for a mortality rate account for the survey design and utilise an acceptable methodology. This paper describes the calculation of confidence limits for mortality rates from surveys using complex sampling designs and a variety of software programmes and methods. It contains an example that makes use of the SAS, SPSS, and Epi Info software programmes. Of the three confidence interval methods examined--the ratio command approach, the modified rate approach, and the modified proportion approach--the paper recommends the ratio command approach to estimate mortality rates with confidence limits.

  19. Corrected profile likelihood confidence interval for binomial paired incomplete data.

    PubMed

    Pradhan, Vivek; Menon, Sandeep; Das, Ujjwal

    2013-01-01

    Clinical trials often use paired binomial data as their clinical endpoint. The confidence interval is frequently used to estimate the treatment performance. Tang et al. (2009) have proposed exact and approximate unconditional methods for constructing a confidence interval in the presence of incomplete paired binary data. The approach proposed by Tang et al. can be overly conservative with large expected confidence interval width (ECIW) in some situations. We propose a profile likelihood-based method with a Jeffreys' prior correction to construct the confidence interval. This approach generates confidence interval with a much better coverage probability and shorter ECIWs. The performances of the method along with the corrections are demonstrated through extensive simulation. Finally, three real world data sets are analyzed by all the methods. Statistical Analysis System (SAS) codes to execute the profile likelihood-based methods are also presented.

  20. A minimal ingroup advantage in emotion identification confidence.

    PubMed

    Young, Steven G; Wilson, John Paul

    2016-12-28

    Emotion expressions convey valuable information about others' internal states and likely behaviours. Accurately identifying expressions is critical for social interactions, but so is perceiver confidence when decoding expressions. Even if a perceiver correctly labels an expression, uncertainty may impair appropriate behavioural responses and create uncomfortable interactions. Past research has found that perceivers report greater confidence when identifying emotions displayed by cultural ingroup members, an effect attributed to greater perceptual skill and familiarity with own-culture than other-culture faces. However, the current research presents novel evidence for an ingroup advantage in emotion decoding confidence across arbitrary group boundaries that hold culture constant. In two experiments using different stimulus sets participants not only labeled minimal ingroup expressions more accurately, but did so with greater confidence. These results offer novel evidence that ingroup advantages in emotion decoding confidence stem partly from social-cognitive processes.

  1. Canadian and Australian Pre-Service Teachers' Use, Confidence and Success in Various Behaviour Management Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reupert, Andrea; Woodcock, Stuart

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was twofold; first, to identify Australian and Canadian pre-service teachers' use, confidence and success in various behaviour management strategies, and second, to identify significant differences between the two cohorts. Pooled data indicated that pre-service teachers most frequently employ low level corrective…

  2. Increasing Confidence to Decrease Reticence: A Qualitative Action Research in Second Language Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doqaruni, Vahid Rahmani

    2015-01-01

    This study reports on an action research on increasing the English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students' confidence in speaking. Participants involved in this study were 16 male university students who had an upper-intermediate level of English. Extra speaking activities were incorporated into the classroom for 8 successive weeks. Insights into…

  3. Tracking Preservice Kindergarten Teachers' Development of Singing Skills and Confidence: An Applied Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neokleous, Rania

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to (a) examine the effects of a music methods course on the singing skills of preservice kindergarten teachers, (b) document the nature and development of their skills during the course, and (c) trace any changes in their confidence levels toward singing as a result of the course. As an applied study which was carried…

  4. Can Confidence Come Too Soon? Collective Efficacy, Conflict and Group Performance over Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goncalo, Jack A.; Polman, Evan; Maslach, Christina

    2010-01-01

    Groups with a strong sense of collective efficacy set more challenging goals, persist in the face of difficulty, and are ultimately more likely to succeed than groups who do not share this belief. Given the many advantages that may accrue to groups who are confident, it would be logical to advise groups to build a high level of collective efficacy…

  5. Confidence in Pass/Fail Decisions for Computer Adaptive and Paper and Pencil Examinations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergstrom, Betty A.; Lunz, Mary E.

    The level of confidence in pass/fail decisions obtained with computer adaptive tests (CATs) was compared to decisions based on paper-and-pencil tests. Subjects included 645 medical technology students from 238 educational programs across the country. The tests used in this study constituted part of the subjects' review for the certification…

  6. Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

    2010-01-01

    A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

  7. Instructor Gender and Student Confidence in the Sciences: A Need for More Role Models?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cotner, Sehoya; Ballen, Cissy; Brooks, D. Christopher; Moore, Randy

    2011-01-01

    Women are underrepresented in most scientific disciplines, with achievement gaps expanding throughout the career trajectory. Gender differences in perceptions of scientific competence are evident at an early age. We examined the extent to which college-level instructor gender affects the confidence of males and females in their scientific…

  8. Assessing Pre-Service Teacher Attitudes and Skills with the Technology Integration Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Jeremy

    2009-01-01

    As technology integration continues to gain importance, preservice teachers must develop higher levels of confidence and proficiency in using technology in their classrooms (Kay, 2006). The acceptance of the National Educational Technology Standards for Teachers (NETS-T) by National Council for Accreditation of Teacher Education (NCATE) has…

  9. The Effect of Type of Podcasts and Learning Styles on Language Proficiency and Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Wei Qiang; Klein, James D.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the effect of type of podcasts and learning styles on speaking, listening, and confidence when college used podcasts for learning Chinese. It focused on college students enrolled in a beginning-level Chinese course at a large university in the southeastern United States. Findings indicated that listening to grammar podcasts…

  10. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  11. 10 CFR 430.24 - Units to be tested.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... sample or (B) the upper 95 percent confidence limit of the true mean divided by 1.10, and (ii) Any...) the lower 95 percent confidence limit of the true mean divided by .90. (b)(1) For each basic model 1... sample or (B) the upper 95 percent confidence limit of the true mean divided by 1.10, and (ii)...

  12. 40 CFR Appendix C to Part 425 - Definition and Procedure for the Determination of the Method Detection Limit 1

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Table. S=standard deviation of the replicate analyses. (b) The 95 percent confidence limits for the MDL... where MDLLCL and MDLUCL are the lower and upper 95 percent confidence limits respectively based on seven... (12, 1−a=.99) (e) The 95 percent confidence limits for MDL derived in 7c are computed according to...

  13. Families of smooth confidence bands for the survival function under the general random censorship model.

    PubMed

    Gulati, S; Padgett, W J

    1996-01-01

    Randomly right censored data often arise in industrial life testing and clinical trials. Several authors have proposed asymptotic confidence bands for the survival function when data are randomly censored on the right. All of these bands are based on the empirical estimator of the survival function. In this paper, families of asymptotic (1-alpha) 100% level confidence bands are developed from the smoothed estimate of the survival function under the general random censorship model. The new bands are compared to empirical bands, and it is shown that for small sample sizes, the smooth bands have a higher coverage probability than the empirical counterparts.

  14. Two confidence interval approaches on the dependability coefficient in a two-factor crossed design.

    PubMed

    Ting, Naitee; Cappelleri, Joseph C; Bushmakin, Andrew G

    2009-07-01

    For decisions based on the absolute level of performance among individuals, the dependability coefficient-a ratio of variance components-is used as a measure of reliability. Two methods developed for a two-factor random effects crossed (or one-facet) design-the Arteaga, Jeyaratnam, and Graybill (AJG) approach and the Cappelleri and Ting (CT) approach-are applied to construct confidence intervals on the dependability coefficient. A simulation study is conducted to investigate and compare the confidence interval coverage on the dependability coefficient based on AJG and CT. Both methods generally meet at least the nominal coverage. Both methods are illustrated with examples.

  15. The construction of confidence in a perceptual decision

    PubMed Central

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Barttfeld, Pablo; Sigman, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making involves the selection of one out of many possible courses of action. A decision may bear on other decisions, as when humans seek a second medical opinion before undergoing a risky surgical intervention. These “meta-decisions” are mediated by confidence judgments—the degree to which decision-makers consider that a choice is likely to be correct. We studied how subjective confidence is constructed from noisy sensory evidence. The psychophysical kernels used to convert sensory information into choice and confidence decisions were precisely reconstructed measuring the impact of small fluctuations in sensory input. This is shown in two independent experiments in which human participants made a decision about the direction of motion of a set of randomly moving dots, or compared the brightness of a group of fluctuating bars, followed by a confidence report. The results of both experiments converged to show that: (1) confidence was influenced by evidence during a short window of time at the initial moments of the decision, and (2) confidence was influenced by evidence for the selected choice but was virtually blind to evidence for the non-selected choice. Our findings challenge classical models of subjective confidence—which posit that the difference of evidence in favor of each choice is the seed of the confidence signal. PMID:23049504

  16. Public eyewitness confidence ratings can differ from those held privately.

    PubMed

    Shaw, J S; Zerr, T K; Woythaler, K A

    2001-04-01

    Despite much research on eyewitness confidence, we know very little about whether confidence ratings given in public might differ from those held privately. This study tested a prediction derived from self-presentation theory that eyewitnesses will give lower confidence ratings in public when there is a possibility of their account being contradicted by other witnesses as compared to when they report their confidence in private. In groups of 3 or 4 people, 96 participants watched a videotape of a simulated robbery and then answered 16 forced-choice questions about details from the videotape. In half of the experimental sessions, the participants shared their answers and confidence ratings aloud with the other participants (public condition), and in the other half, the answers and ratings were not shared (private). As predicted, confidence ratings were significantly lower in the public condition than in the private condition, but the privacy manipulation had no effect on response accuracy. These results are consistent with a self-presentation explanation, and they highlight the need to examine public confidence ratings more thoroughly.

  17. Assured Human-Autonomy Interaction through Machine Self-Confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aitken, Matthew

    Autonomous systems employ many layers of approximations in order to operate in increasingly uncertain and unstructured environments. The complexity of these systems makes it hard for a user to understand the systems capabilities, especially if the user is not an expert. However, if autonomous systems are to be used efficiently, their users must trust them appropriately. This purpose of this work is to implement and assess an 'assurance' that an autonomous system can provide to the user to elicit appropriate trust. Specifically, the autonomous system's perception of its own capabilities is reported to the user as the self-confidence assurance. The self-confidence assurance should allow the user to more quickly and accurately assess the autonomous system's capabilities, generating appropriate trust in the autonomous system. First, this research defines self-confidence and discusses what the self-confidence assurance is attempting to communicate to the user. Then it provides a framework for computing the autonomous system's self-confidence as a function of self-confidence factors which correspond to individual elements in the autonomous system's process. In order to explore this idea, self-confidence is implemented on an autonomous system that uses a mixed observability Markov decision process model to solve a pursuit-evasion problem on a road network. The implementation of a factor assessing the goodness of the autonomy's expected performance is focused on in particular. This work highlights some of the issues and considerations in the design of appropriate metrics for the self-confidence factors, and provides the basis for future research for computing self-confidence in autonomous systems.

  18. Small Sample Theory for Steady State Confidence Intervals

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-06-01

    confidence interval for the mean of a stationary sequence. As indicated in the literature, nonparametric confidence intervals in practice often have undesirable small-sample asymmetry and coverage characteristics. These phenomena are partially due to the fact that the third and fourth cumulants of the point estimator for the stationary mean, unlike those of the standard normal random variable, are not zero. We will apply Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher expansions to obtain asymptotic expansions for the errors associated with confidence intervals. The analysis isolates various

  19. Thin-slice vision: inference of confidence measure from perceptual video quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hameed, Abdul; Balas, Benjamin; Dai, Rui

    2016-11-01

    There has been considerable research on thin-slice judgments, but no study has demonstrated the predictive validity of confidence measures when assessors watch videos acquired from communication systems, in which the perceptual quality of videos could be degraded by limited bandwidth and unreliable network conditions. This paper studies the relationship between high-level thin-slice judgments of human behavior and factors that contribute to perceptual video quality. Based on a large number of subjective test results, it has been found that the confidence of a single individual present in all the videos, called speaker's confidence (SC), could be predicted by a list of features that contribute to perceptual video quality. Two prediction models, one based on artificial neural network and the other based on a decision tree, were built to predict SC. Experimental results have shown that both prediction models can result in high correlation measures.

  20. Development of 3-D lithostratigraphic and confidence models at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buesch, D.C.; Nelson, J.E.; Dickerson, R.P.; Spengler, R.W.

    1993-01-01

    Computerized three-dimensional geologic models of potential high-level nuclear waste repositories such as Yucca Moutain, Nevada, are important for visualizing the complex interplay of (1) thickness and facies variations in lithostratigraphic units and (2) the disruption of these units by faults. The concept of a 'model of confidence' in the lithostratigraphic model is introduced to show where data are located versus regions where interpolations are included. Models of confidence can be based on (1) expert judgment, (2) geostatistical analysis, or (3) a simplified combination of these two methods. Linking of lithostratigraphic models and models of confidence provide guidelines for future characterization and modeling activities, as well as for design and construction of the Exploratory Studies Facility.

  1. Confidence intervals based on some weighting functions for the difference of two binomial proportions.

    PubMed

    Maruo, Kazushi; Kawai, Norisuke

    2014-06-15

    In this paper, we propose two new methods for computing confidence intervals for the difference of two independent binomial proportions in small sample cases. Several test-based exact confidence intervals have been developed to guarantee the nominal coverage probability in small sample cases. However, these methods are sometimes unnecessarily too conservative because they use the exact p-value for constructing confidence intervals by maximizing the tail probability to account for the worst configuration. In order to reduce conservatism, our new methods adopt the p-value weighted by two types of functions instead of the maximum p-value. Our proposed methods can be regarded as quasi-exact methods. The performance evaluation results showed that our methods are much less conservative than the exact method. Compared with other existing quasi-exact methods, generally, our methods possess coverage probabilities closer to the nominal confidence level and shorter expected confidence widths. In particular, the beta weighing method provides the most reasonable balance between accurate coverage probability and short interval width in small sample cases.

  2. A peptide-retrieval strategy enables significant improvement of quantitative performance without compromising confidence of identification.

    PubMed

    Tu, Chengjian; Shen, Shichen; Sheng, Quanhu; Shyr, Yu; Qu, Jun

    2017-01-30

    Reliable quantification of low-abundance proteins in complex proteomes is challenging largely owing to the limited number of spectra/peptides identified. In this study we developed a straightforward method to improve the quantitative accuracy and precision of proteins by strategically retrieving the less confident peptides that were previously filtered out using the standard target-decoy search strategy. The filtered-out MS/MS spectra matched to confidently-identified proteins were recovered, and the peptide-spectrum-match FDR were re-calculated and controlled at a confident level of FDR≤1%, while protein FDR maintained at ~1%. We evaluated the performance of this strategy in both spectral count- and ion current-based methods. >60% increase of total quantified spectra/peptides was respectively achieved for analyzing a spike-in sample set and a public dataset from CPTAC. Incorporating the peptide retrieval strategy significantly improved the quantitative accuracy and precision, especially for low-abundance proteins (e.g. one-hit proteins). Moreover, the capacity of confidently discovering significantly-altered proteins was also enhanced substantially, as demonstrated with two spike-in datasets. In summary, improved quantitative performance was achieved by this peptide recovery strategy without compromising confidence of protein identification, which can be readily implemented in a broad range of quantitative proteomics techniques including label-free or labeling approaches.

  3. Determining confidence of predicted interactions between HIV-1 and human proteins using conformal method.

    PubMed

    Nouretdinov, Ilia; Gammerman, Alex; Qi, Yanjun; Klein-Seetharaman, Judith

    2012-01-01

    Identifying protein-protein interactions (PPI's) is critical for understanding virtually all cellular molecular mechanisms. Previously, predicting PPI's was treated as a binary classification task and has commonly been solved in a supervised setting which requires a positive labeled set of known PPI's and a negative labeled set of non-interacting protein pairs. In those methods, the learner provides the likelihood of the predicted interaction, but without a confidence level associated with each prediction. Here, we apply a conformal prediction framework to make predictions and estimate confidence of the predictions. The conformal predictor uses a function measuring relative 'strangeness' interacting pairs to check whether prediction of a new example added to the sequence of already known PPI's would conform to the 'exchangeability' assumption: distribution of interacting pairs is invariant with any permutations of the pairs. In fact, this is the only assumption we make about the data. Another advantage is that the user can control a number of errors by providing a desirable confidence level. This feature of CP is very useful for a ranking list of possible interactive pairs. In this paper, the conformal method has been developed to deal with just one class - class interactive proteins - while there is not clearly defined of 'non-interactive'pairs. The confidence level helps the biologist in the interpretation of the results, and better assists the choices of pairs for experimental validation. We apply the proposed conformal framework to improve the identification of interacting pairs between HIV-1 and human proteins.

  4. Land subsidence, groundwater levels, and geology in the Coachella Valley, California, 1993-2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sneed, Michelle; Brandt, Justin T.; Solt, Mike

    2014-01-01

    Land subsidence associated with groundwater-level declines has been investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Coachella Valley, California, since 1996. Groundwater has been a major source of agricultural, municipal, and domestic supply in the valley since the early 1920s. Pumping of groundwater resulted in water-level declines as much as 15 meters (50 feet) through the late 1940s. In 1949, the importation of Colorado River water to the southern Coachella Valley began, resulting in a reduction in groundwater pumping and a recovery of water levels during the 1950s through the 1970s. Since the late 1970s, demand for water in the valley has exceeded deliveries of imported surface water, resulting in increased pumping and associated groundwater-level declines and, consequently, an increase in the potential for land subsidence caused by aquifer-system compaction. Global Positioning System (GPS) surveying and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) methods were used to determine the location, extent, and magnitude of the vertical land-surface changes in the southern Coachella Valley during 1993–2010. The GPS measurements taken at 11 geodetic monuments in 1996 and in 2010 in the southern Coachella Valley indicated that the elevation of the land surface changed –136 to –23 millimeters (mm) ±54 mm (–0.45 to –0.08 feet (ft) ±0.18 ft) during the 14-year period. Changes at 6 of the 11 monuments exceeded the maximum expected uncertainty of ±54 mm (±0.18 ft) at the 95-percent confidence level, indicating that subsidence occurred at these monuments between June 1996 and August 2010. GPS measurements taken at 17 geodetic monuments in 2005 and 2010 indicated that the elevation of the land surface changed –256 to +16 mm ±28 mm (–0.84 to +0.05 ft ±0.09 ft) during the 5-year period. Changes at 5 of the 17 monuments exceeded the maximum expected uncertainty of ±28 mm (±0.09 ft) at the 95-percent confidence level, indicating that subsidence occurred

  5. Adverse Outcome Pathways for Regulatory Applications: Examination of Four Case Studies With Different Degrees of Completeness and Scientific Confidence.

    PubMed

    Perkins, Edward J; Antczak, Philipp; Burgoon, Lyle; Falciani, Francesco; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gutsell, Steve; Hodges, Geoff; Kienzler, Aude; Knapen, Dries; McBride, Mary; Willett, Catherine

    2015-11-01

    Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) offer a pathway-based toxicological framework to support hazard assessment and regulatory decision-making. However, little has been discussed about the scientific confidence needed, or how complete a pathway should be, before use in a specific regulatory application. Here we review four case studies to explore the degree of scientific confidence and extent of completeness (in terms of causal events) that is required for an AOP to be useful for a specific purpose in a regulatory application: (i) Membrane disruption (Narcosis) leading to respiratory failure (low confidence), (ii) Hepatocellular proliferation leading to cancer (partial pathway, moderate confidence), (iii) Covalent binding to proteins leading to skin sensitization (high confidence), and (iv) Aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish (high confidence). Partially complete AOPs with unknown molecular initiating events, such as 'Hepatocellular proliferation leading to cancer', were found to be valuable. We demonstrate that scientific confidence in these pathways can be increased though the use of unconventional information (eg, computational identification of potential initiators). AOPs at all levels of confidence can contribute to specific uses. A significant statistical or quantitative relationship between events and/or the adverse outcome relationships is a common characteristic of AOPs, both incomplete and complete, that have specific regulatory uses. For AOPs to be useful in a regulatory context they must be at least as useful as the tools that regulators currently possess, or the techniques currently employed by regulators.

  6. Right frontopolar cortex activity correlates with reliability of retrospective rating of confidence in short-term recognition memory performance.

    PubMed

    Yokoyama, Osamu; Miura, Naoki; Watanabe, Jobu; Takemoto, Atsushi; Uchida, Shinya; Sugiura, Motoaki; Horie, Kaoru; Sato, Shigeru; Kawashima, Ryuta; Nakamura, Katsuki

    2010-11-01

    Human memory systems contain self-monitoring mechanisms for evaluating their progress. People can change their learning strategy on the basis of confidence in their performance at that time. However, it has not been fully understood how the brain is engaged in reliable rating of confidence in past recognition memory performance. We measured the brain activity by fMRI while healthy subjects performed a visual short-term recognition memory test and then rated their confidence in their answers as high, middle, or low. As shown previously, their behavioral performance in the confidence rating widely varied; some showed a positive confidence-recognition correlation (i.e., "rate reliably") while others did not. Among brain regions showing greater activity during rating their confidence relative to during a control, non-metamemory task (discriminating brightness of words), only a posterior-dorsal part of the right frontopolar cortex exhibited higher activity as the confidence level better correlated with actual recognition memory performance. These results suggest that activation in the right frontopolar cortex is key to a reliable, retrospective rating of confidence in short-term recognition memory performance.

  7. Confidence Interval for Parameter n in a Binomial Distribution.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-01-01

    procedure of estimating n in the form of a confidence interval . The last section consists of some concluding remark. A simulation procedure, an interactive computer program, and selected tables are included in the appendixes.

  8. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  9. The physician's attire and its influence on patient confidence.

    PubMed

    Budny, Adam M; Rogers, Lee C; Mandracchia, Vincent J; Lascher, Steven

    2006-01-01

    Although physician appearance has been a topic of discussion in the medical literature for many years, no objective research has been performed on this topic in the field of podiatric medicine. Our primary objective was to examine patient confidence in physicians as it relates to professional clinic attire versus casual or scrub outfits. We also assessed the influence of other variables, such as white coat, name tag, age, and sex, on patient confidence. We surveyed 155 podiatric medical patients from a private practice and a hospital-based clinic. The results indicate that 68% of patients surveyed felt that professional attire inspired the most confidence. Ninety-six percent of all patients either preferred white coats or were indifferent to their presence. We conclude that professionally dressed podiatric physicians may inspire more confidence in a significant percentage of their patients.

  10. Changes in Students' Self-Confidence in College.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erwin, T. Dary; Kelly, Karlease

    1985-01-01

    Students' changes in confidence, as measured by the Erwin Identity Scale, were studied from the freshman to the senior year of college in conjunction with the effects of several environmental perceptions. (Author)

  11. Change detection inflates confidence on a subsequent recognition task.

    PubMed

    Fitzgerald, Ryan J; Oriet, Chris; Price, Heather L

    2011-11-01

    A face viewed under good encoding conditions is more likely to be remembered than a face viewed under poor encoding conditions. In four experiments we investigated how encoding conditions affected confidence in recognising faces from line-ups. Participants performed a change detection task followed by a recognition task and then rated how confident they were in their recognition accuracy. In the first two experiments the same faces were repeated across trials. In the final two experiments novel faces were used on each trial. Target-present and target-absent line-ups were utilised. In each experiment participants had greater recognition confidence after change detection than after change blindness. The finding that change detection inflates confidence, even for inaccurate recognitions, indicates recognition certainty can be a product of perceived encoding conditions rather than authentic memory strength.

  12. Eliminative Induction: A Basis for Arguing System Confidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-05-01

    Eliminative Induction: A Basis for Arguing System Confidence John B. Goodenough , Charles B. Weinstock, Ari Z. Klein Software Engineering Institute...unlimited distribution. DM-0000209. REFERENCES [1] J. Goodenough , C. Weinstock and A. Klein, “Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence,” Pittsburgh...4] C. B. Weinstock and J. B. Goodenough , “Towards an Assurance Case Practice for Medical Devices,” Pittsburgh, PA: Software Engineering

  13. Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-01

    2013]. We use the confidence map in developing an argument and in evaluating an argument’s strengths and weaknesses . Section 2 discusses the...and weaknesses . A confidence map consists of a connected set of inferences having the form if P then Q unless R, S, T, … The inference if P then...conclusion about Tweety’s ability to fly. We also consider weaknesses in the inference rule, noting that if Tweety is a juvenile the rule is

  14. Development and psychometric evaluation of scales to measure professional confidence in manual medicine: a Rasch measurement approach

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Health professionals in athletic training, chiropractic, osteopathy, and physiotherapy fields, require high-level knowledge and skills in their assessment and management of patients. This is important when communicating with patients and applying a range of manual procedures. Prior to embarking on professional practice, it is imperative to acquire optimal situation-specific levels of self-confidence for a beginner practitioner in these areas. In order to foster this professional self-confidence within the higher education context, it is necessary to have valid and reliable scales that can measure and track levels and how they change. This study reports on the development and psychometric analysis of two new scales, Patient Communication Confidence Scale (PCCS) and the Clinical Skills Confidence Scale (CSCS), to measure confidence in these two areas for students in manual medicine programs. The Rasch measurement model was used to guide the development of the scales and establish their psychometric properties. Methods The responses to 269 returned questionnaires over two occasions were submitted to psychometric analysis, with various aspects of the scales examined including: item thresholds; item fit; Differential Item Functioning; targeting; item locations; item dependencies; and reliability. To provide further evidence of validity, scores were correlated with two existing valid scales. Results Analyses showed that the scales provided valid and reliable measures of confidence for this sample of persons. High Person Separation Indices (0.96 for PCCS; 0.93 for SCSC) provided statistical evidence of reliability, meaning the scales are able to discriminate amongst persons with different levels of confidence. For the PCCS, item categories were operating as required, and for the CSCS only two items’ thresholds were slightly disordered. Three tests of fit revealed good fit to the model (indicating the internal consistency of both scales) and results of the

  15. Initial eyewitness confidence reliably predicts eyewitness identification accuracy.

    PubMed

    Wixted, John T; Mickes, Laura; Clark, Steven E; Gronlund, Scott D; Roediger, Henry L

    2015-09-01

    Eyewitness memory is widely believed to be unreliable because (a) high-confidence eyewitness misidentifications played a role in over 70% of the now more than 300 DNA exonerations of wrongfully convicted men and women, (b) forensically relevant laboratory studies have often reported a weak relationship between eyewitness confidence and accuracy, and (c) memory is sufficiently malleable that, not infrequently, people (including eyewitnesses) can be led to remember events differently from the way the events actually happened. In light of such evidence, many researchers agree that confidence statements made by eyewitnesses in a court of law (in particular, the high confidence they often express at trial) should be discounted, if not disregarded altogether. But what about confidence statements made by eyewitnesses at the time of the initial identification (e.g., from a lineup), before there is much opportunity for memory contamination to occur? A considerable body of recent empirical work suggests that confidence may be a highly reliable indicator of accuracy at that time, which fits with longstanding theoretical models of recognition memory. Counterintuitively, an appreciation of this fact could do more to protect innocent defendants from being wrongfully convicted than any other eyewitness identification reform that has been proposed to date.

  16. Prediction of the confidence interval of quantitative trait Loci location.

    PubMed

    Visscher, Peter M; Goddard, Mike E

    2004-07-01

    In 1997, Darvasi and Soller presented empirical predictions of the confidence interval of quantitative trait loci (QTL) location for dense marker maps in experimental crosses. They showed from simulation results for backcross and F2 populations from inbred lines that the 95% confidence interval was a simple function of sample size and the effect of the QTL. In this study, we derive by theory simple equations that can be used to predict any confidence interval and show that for the 95% confidence interval, they are in good agreement with the empirical results given by Darvasi and Soller. A general form of the confidence interval is given that also applies to other population structures (e.g., collections of sib pairs). Furthermore, the expected shape of the likelihood-ratio-test around the true QTL location is derived, which is shown to be extremely leptokurtic. It is shown that this shape explains why confidence intervals from the Log of Odds (LOD) drop-off method and bootstrap results frequently differ for real data sets.

  17. Overdistribution illusions: Categorical judgments produce them, confidence ratings reduce them.

    PubMed

    Brainerd, C J; Nakamura, K; Reyna, V F; Holliday, R E

    2017-01-01

    Overdistribution is a form of memory distortion in which an event is remembered as belonging to too many episodic states, states that are logically or empirically incompatible with each other. We investigated a response formatting method of suppressing 2 basic types of overdistribution, disjunction and conjunction illusions, which parallel some classic illusions in the judgment and decision making literature. In this method, subjects respond to memory probes by rating their confidence that test cues belong to specific episodic states (e.g., presented on List 1, presented on List 2), rather than by making the usual categorical judgments about those states. The central prediction, which was derived from the task calibration principle of fuzzy-trace theory, was that confidence ratings should reduce overdistribution by diminishing subjects' reliance on noncompensatory gist memories. The data of 3 experiments agreed with that prediction. In Experiment 1, there were reliable disjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. In Experiment 2, both response formats produced reliable disjunction illusions, but those for confidence ratings were much smaller than those for categorical judgments. In Experiment 3, there were reliable conjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. Apropos of recent controversies over confidence-accuracy correlations in memory, such correlations were positive for hits, negative for correct rejections, and the 2 types of correlations were of equal magnitude. (PsycINFO Database Record

  18. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.

    PubMed

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-11-30

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models.

  19. Lucky Guess or Knowledge: A Cross-Sectional Study Using the Bland and Altman Analysis to Compare Confidence-Based Testing of Pharmacological Knowledge in 3rd and 5th Year Medical Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kampmeyer, Daniela; Matthes, Jan; Herzig, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Multiple-choice-questions are common in medical examinations, but guessing biases assessment results. Confidence-based-testing (CBT) integrates indicated confidence levels. It has been suggested that correctness of and confidence in an answer together indicate knowledge levels thus determining the quality of a resulting decision. We used a CBT…

  20. Neonatal family care for 24 hours per day: effects on maternal confidence and breast-feeding.

    PubMed

    Wataker, Heidi; Meberg, Alf; Nestaas, Eirik

    2012-01-01

    In family care (FC) program for neonatal intensive care units (NICUs), parents are encouraged to reside together with their infant for 24 hours a day to actively be involved in the care. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of FC on maternal confidence and breast-feeding. Maternal confidence and rate of breast-feeding were assessed in 31 mothers offered FC that included special family rooms in the NICU, and in 30 mothers from a comparable NICU providing traditional care without such facilities. One week prior to hospital discharge, mothers in the FC group felt better informed regarding nursing issues and had more confidence in interpretation of the infants regarding feeding issues and in caregiving without staff attendance (P < .05). They also reported a higher level of empowerment (P < .05). Three months after discharge, the mothers in the FC group had a higher self-reported skill level for interpretation of the infant's signals and knowledge about breast-feeding (P < .05). Despite similar rate of breast-feeding at discharge, more infants in the FC group were breastfed 3 months after discharge (P < .05). An FC program in the NICU promoted better maternal confidence during the hospital stay and 3 months after discharge compared with traditional care.

  1. Pediatricians' Confidence and Behaviors in Smoking Cessation Promotion and Knowledge of the Smoking Cessation Trust

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Katharine; Kisely, Steve; Gastanaduy, Mariella; Urrego, Fernando

    2016-01-01

    Background: Secondhand smoke exposure increases morbidity and mortality in children. Thirty-one percent of caregivers who accompany their children to the Ochsner Health Center for Children smoke, and none uses the services of the Smoking Cessation Trust (SCT), a free smoking cessation program for eligible Louisiana residents who began smoking before 1988. The objective of this study was 2-fold: first, to assess and compare pediatricians' confidence and behaviors in regard to smoking cessation promotion with caregivers, and second, to determine pediatricians' knowledge and comfort level with the SCT. Methods: Pediatricians were given a questionnaire to assess 12 parameters regarding their confidence and practice when screening, counseling, and referring caregivers to smoking cessation programs. Results: Thirty-six questionnaires were administered, of which 27 were completed (75%). Only 7.41% of respondents had formal training in smoking cessation, 18.52% had never heard of the SCT, and 92.59% do not refer to the SCT. All the pediatrician respondents stated that they were confident in their ability to screen for secondhand smoke exposure, 62.96% were confident in providing counseling, and 44.44% were confident in offering referrals. Most pediatricians very often or always screened for secondhand smoke exposure (77.78%); however, only 25.93% counseled smoking caregivers to quit, and only 11.11% provided a smoking cessation referral. Pediatricians stated that they were confident to screen, counsel, and refer caregivers; however, they were significantly less likely to report actually screening for secondhand smoke exposure (P<0.05), counseling (P<0.05), and referring caregivers (P<0.05). Conclusion: Efforts should be made to increase the rate by which pediatricians provide smoking cessation, counseling, and referrals to the SCT through education and training. PMID:27303221

  2. Number of core samples: Mean concentrations and confidence intervals

    SciTech Connect

    Jensen, L.; Cromar, R.D.; Wilmarth, S.R.; Heasler, P.G.

    1995-01-24

    This document provides estimates of how well the mean concentration of analytes are known as a function of the number of core samples, composite samples, and replicate analyses. The estimates are based upon core composite data from nine recently sampled single-shell tanks. The results can be used when determining the number of core samples needed to ``characterize`` the waste from similar single-shell tanks. A standard way of expressing uncertainty in the estimate of a mean is with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The authors investigate how the width of a 95% CI on the mean concentration decreases as the number of observations increase. Specifically, the tables and figures show how the relative half-width (RHW) of a 95% CI decreases as the number of core samples increases. The RHW of a CI is a unit-less measure of uncertainty. The general conclusions are as follows: (1) the RHW decreases dramatically as the number of core samples is increased, the decrease is much smaller when the number of composited samples or the number of replicate analyses are increase; (2) if the mean concentration of an analyte needs to be estimated with a small RHW, then a large number of core samples is required. The estimated number of core samples given in the tables and figures were determined by specifying different sizes of the RHW. Four nominal sizes were examined: 10%, 25%, 50%, and 100% of the observed mean concentration. For a majority of analytes the number of core samples required to achieve an accuracy within 10% of the mean concentration is extremely large. In many cases, however, two or three core samples is sufficient to achieve a RHW of approximately 50 to 100%. Because many of the analytes in the data have small concentrations, this level of accuracy may be satisfactory for some applications.

  3. Comparison of health confidence in rural, suburban and urban areas in the UK and the USA: a secondary analysis

    PubMed Central

    Haven, Kristen; Celaya, Martín F; Pierson, Jaclyn; Weisskopf, Aron J; MacKinnon, Neil J

    2013-01-01

    Objective Confidence in healthcare may influence the patients’ utilisation of healthcare resources and perceptions of healthcare quality. We sought to determine whether self-reported confidence in healthcare differed between the UK and the USA, as well as by rurality or urbanicity. Design A secondary analysis of a subset of survey questions regarding self-reported confidence in healthcare from the 2010 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey. Setting Telephone survey of participants from the UK and the USA. Participants Our final analysis included 1511 UK residents (688 rural, 446 suburban, 372 urban, 5 uncategorised) and 2501 US residents (536 rural, 1294 suburban, 671 urban). Outcome measures Questions assessed respondents’ confidence in the effectiveness and affordability of the treatment. We compared survey outcomes from these questions between, and within, the two regions and among, and within, residence types (rural, suburban and urban). Results Significant differences were found in self-reported confidence in healthcare between the UK and US, among residence types, and between the two regions within residence types. Reported levels were higher in the UK. Within regions, significant differences by residence type were found for the US, but not the UK. Within the US, suburban respondents had the highest self-reported confidence in healthcare. Conclusions Significant differences exist between the UK and US in confidence in healthcare. In the US, but not in the UK, self-reported confidence is related to residence type. Within countries, significant differences by residence type were found for the US, but not the UK. Our findings warrant the examination of causes for relative confidence levels in healthcare between regions and among US residence types. PMID:23645916

  4. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

  5. Interindividual variability in auditory scene analysis revealed by confidence judgements.

    PubMed

    Pelofi, C; de Gardelle, V; Egré, P; Pressnitzer, D

    2017-02-19

    Because musicians are trained to discern sounds within complex acoustic scenes, such as an orchestra playing, it has been hypothesized that musicianship improves general auditory scene analysis abilities. Here, we compared musicians and non-musicians in a behavioural paradigm using ambiguous stimuli, combining performance, reaction times and confidence measures. We used 'Shepard tones', for which listeners may report either an upward or a downward pitch shift for the same ambiguous tone pair. Musicians and non-musicians performed similarly on the pitch-shift direction task. In particular, both groups were at chance for the ambiguous case. However, groups differed in their reaction times and judgements of confidence. Musicians responded to the ambiguous case with long reaction times and low confidence, whereas non-musicians responded with fast reaction times and maximal confidence. In a subsequent experiment, non-musicians displayed reduced confidence for the ambiguous case when pure-tone components of the Shepard complex were made easier to discern. The results suggest an effect of musical training on scene analysis: we speculate that musicians were more likely to discern components within complex auditory scenes, perhaps because of enhanced attentional resolution, and thus discovered the ambiguity. For untrained listeners, stimulus ambiguity was not available to perceptual awareness.This article is part of the themed issue 'Auditory and visual scene analysis'.

  6. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  7. New graduate nurses' experiences about lack of professional confidence.

    PubMed

    Ortiz, Jennifer

    2016-07-01

    Professional confidence is an essential trait for new graduate nurses to possess in order to provide quality patient care in today's complex hospital setting. However, many new graduates are entering the workforce without it and this remains to be explored. This study describes how new graduate nurses accounted for their lack of professional confidence upon entry into professional practice and how it developed during their first year of practice in the hospital setting. Two face-to-face, individual interviews of 12 participants were utilized to capture the lived experiences of new graduate nurses to gain an understanding of this phenomenon. After manual content analysis seven themes emerged: communication is huge, making mistakes, disconnect between school and practice, independence, relationship building, positive feedback is important, and gaining experience. The findings indicate that the development of professional confidence is a dynamic process that occurs throughout the first year of practice. New graduate nurses must experience both positive and negative circumstances in order to move toward the attainment of professional confidence. Knowing this, nurse educators in academia as well as in the hospital setting may better support the development of professional confidence both before and during the first year of practice.

  8. Systematic Effects in Laser Scanning and Visualization by Confidence Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, Karl-Rudolf; Brockmann, Jan Martin

    2016-12-01

    A new method for dealing with systematic effects in laser scanning and visualizing them by confidence regions is derived. The standard deviations of the systematic effects are obtained by repeatedly measuring three-dimensional coordinates by the laser scanner. In addition, autocovariance and cross-covariance functions are computed by the repeated measurements and give the correlations of the systematic effects. The normal distribution for the measurements and the multivariate uniform distribution for the systematic effects are applied to generate random variates for the measurements and random variates for the measurements plus systematic effects. Monte Carlo estimates of the expectations and the covariance matrix of the measurements with systematic effects are computed. The densities for the confidence ellipsoid for the measurements and the confidence region for the measurements with systematic effects are obtained by relative frequencies. They only depend on the size of the rectangular volume elements for which the densities are determined. The problem of sorting the densities is solved by sorting distances together with the densities. This allows a visualization of the confidence ellipsoid for the measurements and the confidence region for the measurements with systematic effects.

  9. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  10. Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

    PubMed

    Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

  11. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  12. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience—approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain—to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This “emotor” control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on “confidence.” Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior. PMID:26869840

  13. Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.

    PubMed

    Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-10-01

    Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence.

  14. Confidence and certainty: distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals.

    PubMed

    Pouget, Alexandre; Drugowitsch, Jan; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-03-01

    When facing uncertainty, adaptive behavioral strategies demand that the brain performs probabilistic computations. In this probabilistic framework, the notion of certainty and confidence would appear to be closely related, so much so that it is tempting to conclude that these two concepts are one and the same. We argue that there are computational reasons to distinguish between these two concepts. Specifically, we propose that confidence should be defined as the probability that a decision or a proposition, overt or covert, is correct given the evidence, a critical quantity in complex sequential decisions. We suggest that the term certainty should be reserved to refer to the encoding of all other probability distributions over sensory and cognitive variables. We also discuss strategies for studying the neural codes for confidence and certainty and argue that clear definitions of neural codes are essential to understanding the relative contributions of various cortical areas to decision making.

  15. Confidence and certainty: distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals

    PubMed Central

    Pouget, Alexandre; Drugowitsch, Jan; Kepecs, Adam

    2017-01-01

    When facing uncertainty, adaptive behavioral strategies demand that the brain performs probabilistic computations. In this probabilistic framework, the notion of certainty and confidence would appear to be closely related, so much so that it is tempting to conclude that these two concepts are one and the same. We argue that there are computational reasons to distinguish between these two concepts. Specifically, we propose that confidence should be defined as the probability that a decision or a proposition, overt or covert, is correct given the evidence, a critical quantity in complex sequential decisions. We suggest that the term certainty should be reserved to refer to the encoding of all other probability distributions over sensory and cognitive variables. We also discuss strategies for studying the neural codes for confidence and certainty and argue that clear definitions of neural codes are essential to understanding the relative contributions of various cortical areas to decision making. PMID:26906503

  16. Confidence intervals for effect parameters common in cancer epidemiology.

    PubMed Central

    Sato, T

    1990-01-01

    This paper reviews approximate confidence intervals for some effect parameters common in cancer epidemiology. These methods have computational feasibility and give nearly nominal coverage rates. In the analysis of crude data, the simplest type of epidemiologic analysis, parameters of interest are the odds ratio in case-control studies and the rate ratio and difference in cohort studies. These parameters can estimate the instantaneous-incidence-rate ratio and difference that are the most meaningful effect measures in cancer epidemiology. Approximate confidence intervals for these parameters including the classical Cornfield's method are mainly based on efficient scores. When some confounding factors exist, stratified analysis and summary measures for effect parameters are needed. Since the Mantel-Haenszel estimators have been widely used by epidemiologists as summary measures, confidence intervals based on the Mantel-Haenszel estimators are described. The paper also discusses recent developments in these methods. PMID:2269246

  17. Finite sample pointwise confidence intervals for a survival distribution with right-censored data.

    PubMed

    Fay, Michael P; Brittain, Erica H

    2016-07-20

    We review and develop pointwise confidence intervals for a survival distribution with right-censored data for small samples, assuming only independence of censoring and survival. When there is no censoring, at each fixed time point, the problem reduces to making inferences about a binomial parameter. In this case, the recently developed beta product confidence procedure (BPCP) gives the standard exact central binomial confidence intervals of Clopper and Pearson. Additionally, the BPCP has been shown to be exact (gives guaranteed coverage at the nominal level) for progressive type II censoring and has been shown by simulation to be exact for general independent right censoring. In this paper, we modify the BPCP to create a 'mid-p' version, which reduces to the mid-p confidence interval for a binomial parameter when there is no censoring. We perform extensive simulations on both the standard and mid-p BPCP using a method of moments implementation that enforces monotonicity over time. All simulated scenarios suggest that the standard BPCP is exact. The mid-p BPCP, like other mid-p confidence intervals, has simulated coverage closer to the nominal level but may not be exact for all survival times, especially in very low censoring scenarios. In contrast, the two asymptotically-based approximations have lower than nominal coverage in many scenarios. This poor coverage is due to the extreme inflation of the lower error rates, although the upper limits are very conservative. Both the standard and the mid-p BPCP methods are available in our bpcp R package. Published 2016. This article is US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  18. An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick Charles

    1985-01-01

    An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

  19. Knowledge and Confidence of a Convenience Sample of Australasian Emergency Doctors in Managing Dental Emergencies: Results of a Survey

    PubMed Central

    Samaei, Hossein; Weiland, Tracey Joy; Dilley, Stuart; Jelinek, George Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Background. We aimed to determine Australasian Specialist Emergency Physicians' and Emergency Physicians in Training (Trainees') level of knowledge of common dental emergencies. We also explored confidence in managing dental emergencies; predictors of confidence and knowledge; and preferences for further dental education. Methods. A questionnaire was distributed electronically (September 2011) and directly (November 2011) to Fellows and Trainees of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine. It explored demographics, confidence, knowledge of dental emergencies, and educational preferences. Results. Response rate was 13.6% (464/3405) and college members were proportionally represented by region. Fewer than half (186/446; 42%) had received dental training. Sixty-two percent (244/391, 95% CI 57.5–67.1) passed (>50%) a knowledge test. More than 60% incorrectly answered questions on dental fracture, periodontal abscess, tooth eruption dates, and ulcerative gingivitis. Forty percent (166/416) incorrectly answered a question about Ludwig's Angina. Eighty-three percent (360/433) were confident in the pharmacological management of toothache but only 26% (112/434) confident in recognizing periodontal disease. Knowledge was correlated with confidence (r = 0.488). Interactive workshops were preferred by most (386/415, 93%). Conclusions. The knowledge and confidence of Australasian Emergency Physicians and Trainees in managing dental emergencies are varied, yet correlated. Interactive training sessions in dental emergencies are warranted. PMID:25821600

  20. Neural correlates of episodic memory: associative memory and confidence drive hippocampus activations.

    PubMed

    Kuchinke, Lars; Fritzemeier, Steffen; Hofmann, Markus J; Jacobs, Arthur M

    2013-10-01

    The present study used a study-test recognition memory task to examine the brain regions engaged in episodic and associative memory processes. Participants evaluated on a six-point rating scale how confident they were on whether or not an item was presented in a previous study phase. Neural activations for high- and low-confidence decisions were examined in old and new items at two levels of between-item-associations. Items had different amounts of associations within the stimulus set, while associations were defined by co-occurrence statistics. The medial frontal gyrus, the posterior cingulate gyrus, the superior temporal gyrus and the right hippocampus revealed U-shaped activation functions with greater activations for high-confidence OLD and NEW decisions. This was independent of the associative memory manipulation, which suggests that not episodic memory, but rather processes related to confidence account for the activation in these brain regions. In contrast, left hippocampus followed a different activation pattern that was modulated by the amount of associations. This provides evidence for the role of the left hippocampus in associative memory.

  1. An Interactive, Multifaceted Approach to Enhancing Pharmacy Students' Health Literacy Knowledge and Confidence.

    PubMed

    Mnatzaganian, Christina; Fricovsky, Eduardo; Best, Brookie M; Singh, Renu F

    2017-03-25

    Objective. To implement and evaluate the effectiveness of an interactive health literacy program by measuring pharmacy students' knowledge and confidence. Design. A health literacy module consisting of a lecture and workshop was incorporated into a self-care course for first-year pharmacy students. Active-learning activities included practicing health literacy tools, discussing faculty-created video vignettes, and improving readability of patient education monographs. A non-validated survey assessed knowledge and confidence before and after training. Assessment. Fifty-three students (88%) completed a pre-training survey, and 60 (100%) completed a post-training survey. Students' confidence improved in six of seven areas (p<.001). Students' knowledge significantly improved in three of 14 areas (p<.01) pertaining to the average American reading level, high-risk age groups, and correlation of late prescription refills to low health literacy. Although knowledge increased in other areas, the improvements were not significant. Conclusion. An interactive, multifaceted health literacy training program significantly improved pharmacy students' knowledge and confidence in recognizing and being able to assist patients with low health literacy.

  2. An Interactive, Multifaceted Approach to Enhancing Pharmacy Students’ Health Literacy Knowledge and Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Fricovsky, Eduardo; Best, Brookie M.; Singh, Renu F.

    2017-01-01

    Objective. To implement and evaluate the effectiveness of an interactive health literacy program by measuring pharmacy students’ knowledge and confidence. Design. A health literacy module consisting of a lecture and workshop was incorporated into a self-care course for first-year pharmacy students. Active-learning activities included practicing health literacy tools, discussing faculty-created video vignettes, and improving readability of patient education monographs. A non-validated survey assessed knowledge and confidence before and after training. Assessment. Fifty-three students (88%) completed a pre-training survey, and 60 (100%) completed a post-training survey. Students’ confidence improved in six of seven areas (p<.001). Students’ knowledge significantly improved in three of 14 areas (p<.01) pertaining to the average American reading level, high-risk age groups, and correlation of late prescription refills to low health literacy. Although knowledge increased in other areas, the improvements were not significant. Conclusion. An interactive, multifaceted health literacy training program significantly improved pharmacy students’ knowledge and confidence in recognizing and being able to assist patients with low health literacy. PMID:28381892

  3. CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1987-01-01

    A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

  4. Emotion as a boost to metacognition: how worry enhances the quality of confidence.

    PubMed

    Massoni, Sébastien

    2014-10-01

    Emotion and cognition are known to interact during human decision processes. In this study we focus on a specific kind of cognition, namely metacognition. Our experiment induces a negative emotion, worry, during a perceptual task. In a numerosity task subjects have to make a two alternative forced choice and then reveal their confidence in this decision. We measure metacognition in terms of discrimination and calibration abilities. Our results show that metacognition, but not choice, is affected by the level of worry anticipated before the decision. Under worry individuals tend to have better metacognition in terms of the two measures. Furthermore understanding the formation of confidence is better explained with taking into account the level of worry in the model. This study shows the importance of an emotional component in the formation and the quality of the subjective probabilities.

  5. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-04

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence.

  6. Ambulatory assessment of skin conductivity during first thesis presentation: lower self-confidence predicts prolonged stress response.

    PubMed

    Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone

    2011-06-01

    In this field study self-confidence was tested to predict the course of galvanic electrodermal stress response prior, during and after public speaking. Ten graduate students initially rated their self-confidence and afterwards presented their thesis proposals orally in a 10-min presentation to their supervisor and peers. Galvanic skin response level was measured throughout and analysed for 10 min prior to, during, and 10 min after the presentation. Two major galvanic electrodermal stress response types were observed. Five students showed a 'healthy response', i.e. an anticipatory increase in electrodermal conductance, followed by a decrease after termination of the presentation. The other five students showed a steady increase of skin conductance during and after their presentation ('prolonged response'). In line with the allostatic load model the 'prolonged response' group reported significantly lower self-confidence before presentation than the 'healthy response' group (p < 0.01). Self-confidence is a resource in novices facing an unfamiliar stressor.

  7. A comparison of methods for the construction of confidence interval for relative risk in stratified matched-pair designs.

    PubMed

    Tang, Nian-Sheng; Li, Hui-Qiong; Tang, Man-Lai

    2010-01-15

    A stratified matched-pair study is often designed for adjusting a confounding effect or effect of different trails/centers/ groups in modern medical studies. The relative risk is one of the most frequently used indices in comparing efficiency of two treatments in clinical trials. In this paper, we propose seven confidence interval estimators for the common relative risk and three simultaneous confidence interval estimators for the relative risks in stratified matched-pair designs. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated with respect to their type I error rates, powers, coverage probabilities, and expected widths. Our empirical results show that the percentile bootstrap confidence interval and bootstrap-resampling-based Bonferroni simultaneous confidence interval behave satisfactorily for small to large sample sizes in the sense that (i) their empirical coverage probabilities can be well controlled around the pre-specified nominal confidence level with reasonably shorter confidence widths; and (ii) the empirical type I error rates of their associated test statistics are generally closer to the pre-specified nominal level with larger powers. They are hence recommended. Two real examples from clinical laboratory studies are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

  8. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his... such disclosures to prevent the act or protect those against whom that is threatened. The Practitioner's Duties and Responsibilities Regarding Witnesses, Other Litigants and the Public...

  9. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his... such disclosures to prevent the act or protect those against whom that is threatened. The Practitioner's Duties and Responsibilities Regarding Witnesses, Other Litigants and the Public...

  10. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  11. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  12. The Reno Report: Rejuvenating Public Confidence in Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Association of State Education Department Information Offices, Arlington, VA.

    The rejuvenation of sagging public confidence in education through better communication was the focus of the conference. Four specific objectives were outlined: (1) to improve the ability of educators to assess public attitudes toward and interest in public education; (2) to assess the impact of different media forms on public attitudes; (3) to…

  13. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-13

    ... amendments to the NRC's regulations pertaining to the environmental impacts of the continued storage of spent...@nrc.gov . For technical questions, contact the individual listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION... search for Docket ID NRC-2012-0246. NRC's Waste Confidence Web site: Go to...

  14. Building Academic Confidence in English Language Learners in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vazquez, Alejandra

    2014-01-01

    Non-English speaking students lack the confidence and preparation to be verbally actively engaged in the classroom. Students may frequently display hesitation in learning to speak English, and may also lack a teacher's guidance in becoming proficient English speakers. The purpose of this research is to examine how teachers build academic…

  15. Knowledge Surveys in General Chemistry: Confidence, Overconfidence, and Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Priscilla; Volckmann, David

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge surveys have been used in a number of fields to assess changes in students' understanding of their own learning and to assist students in review. This study compares metacognitive confidence ratings of students faced with problems on the surveys with their actual knowledge as shown on the final exams in two courses of general chemistry…

  16. Emotions and Confidence within Teaching in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Postareff, Liisa; Lindblom-Ylanne, Sari

    2011-01-01

    Teaching is connected with a variety of emotions, but research on this area is scarce in the field of higher education. The present study explores the role of emotions and confidence within six different teacher profiles. Furthermore, the study aims to analyse emotions that arise during participation in courses on university pedagogy. Altogether…

  17. Panel Discussion and the Development of Students' Self Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anwar, Khoirul

    2016-01-01

    This study is to analyze the use of panel discussion towards the development of students' self confidence in learning the content subject of qualitative research concept. The study uses mix-method in which questionnaire and interview are conducted at the class of qualitative research of the sixth semester consisting twenty students especially…

  18. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    PubMed

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce.

  19. Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

  20. Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence: The ABC Scale Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2009-01-01

    The Academic Behavioural Confidence (ABC) scale has been shown to be valid and can be useful to teachers in understanding their students, enabling the design of more effective teaching sessions with large cohorts. However, some of the between-group differences have been smaller than expected, leading to the hypothesis that the ABC scale many not…

  1. Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oort, Frans J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

  2. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  3. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  4. On Pupils' Self-Confidence in Mathematics: Gender Comparisons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurmi, Anu; Hannula, Markku; Maijala, Hanna; Pehkonen, Erkki

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we will concentrate on pupils' self-confidence in mathematics, which belongs to pupils' mathematical beliefs in themselves, and beliefs on achievement in mathematics. Research described consists of a survey of more than 3000 fifth-graders and seventh-graders. Furthermore, 40 pupils participated in a qualitative follow-up study…

  5. Technology in Teaching: Just How Confident Are Preservice Teachers?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Molebash, Philip; Milman, Natalie

    This paper examines the effectiveness of increasing the confidence of preservice teachers in using technology for personal and instructional purposes as a result of participating in an introductory educational technology course offered at the University of Virginia's Curry School of Education. Course participants attended sections designed for…

  6. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  7. Multiple Confidence Estimates as Indices of Eyewitness Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauer, James D.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan

    2008-01-01

    Eyewitness identification decisions are vulnerable to various influences on witnesses' decision criteria that contribute to false identifications of innocent suspects and failures to choose perpetrators. An alternative procedure using confidence estimates to assess the degree of match between novel and previously viewed faces was investigated.…

  8. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  9. Increasing Teachers' Confidence in Using Computers for Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pina, Anthony A.; Harris, Bruce R.

    The anxiety or confidence that teachers display towards computers and other new technologies is a subject which should be of prime importance to teacher educators and educational technologists. Many teachers feel ill-prepared and resist the integration of computers and other technologies into their instruction. Since 1976 there has been a growing…

  10. Locus of Control and Perceived Confidence in Problem Solving Abilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Barry L.; Kilmann, Peter R.

    1975-01-01

    Butterfield found that internal Ss tended to make more constructive responses to frustration-type situations than did extrenal Ss. Therefore, this study predicted that internal Ss would rate themselves as more confident with regard to problem-solving abilities than would external Ss. (Author)

  11. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  12. Evaluating semantic metamemory: Retrospective confidence judgements on the information subtest.

    PubMed

    Ladowsky-Brooks, Ricki L

    2016-12-12

    The current research explored the potential value of adding a supplementary measure of metamemory to the Information subtest of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale - Third Edition (WAIS-III in Study 1) or Fourth Edition (WAIS-IV in Study 2) in order to assess its relationship to other neuropsychological measures and to brain injury. After completing the Information subtest, neuropsychological examinees were asked to make retrospective confidence judgements (RCJ) by rating their answer certainty in the original order of item administration. In Study 1 (N = 52) and study 2 (N = 30), correct answers were rated with significantly more certainty than wrong answers (termed a "confidence gap"), and in both studies, higher confidence for wrong answers was significantly correlated with poorer performance on the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (for categories completed r = -.58 in Study 1, and r = -.47 in Study 2; for perseverative errors r = .44 in Study 1, and r = .45 in Study 2). In both studies, a number of examinees with positive CT findings had a very small or reversed confidence gap. These findings suggest that semantic metamemory is sensitive to executive functioning and brain injury and should be assessed in the neuropsychological examination.

  13. Building Confident Teachers: Preservice Physical Education Teachers' Efficacy Beliefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hand, Karen E.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding teachers' perceptions of their abilities across a variety of teaching strategies can provide insight for understanding teaching effectiveness and program review. Teaching efficacy reflects the degrees of confidence individuals have in their ability to successfully perform specific teaching proficiencies (Bandura, 1986). Additional…

  14. Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

    PubMed Central

    De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

    2011-01-01

    Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

  15. Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

    2013-01-01

    Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

  16. Researchers Misunderstand Confidence Intervals and Standard Error Bars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belia, Sarah; Fidler, Fiona; Williams, Jennifer; Cumming, Geoff

    2005-01-01

    Little is known about researchers' understanding of confidence intervals (CIs) and standard error (SE) bars. Authors of journal articles in psychology, behavioral neuroscience, and medicine were invited to visit a Web site where they adjusted a figure until they judged 2 means, with error bars, to be just statistically significantly different (p…

  17. Keeping Covenants and Confidence Sacred: One Point of View.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Driscoll, Jeanine M.

    1992-01-01

    Notes that counselors struggle with dilemma of whether to breach therapeutic confidence in instance when human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected client has informed counselor of continued sexual activity or injectable substance-using activity without informing his or her partner(s) of HIV-positive sero-status. Asserts that ethics of covenant…

  18. Knowledge and Confidence of Speech-Language Pathologists Regarding Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ray, Julie M.

    2010-01-01

    The increased prevalence rate of autism has immense implications for speech language pathologists (SLPs) who are directly involved in the education and service delivery for students with autism. However, few studies have documented the effectiveness of the knowledge and confidence of SLPs regarding autism. The purpose of this study was to measure…

  19. Intuitive Confidence: Choosing between Intuitive and Nonintuitive Alternatives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simmons, Joseph P.; Nelson, Leif D.

    2006-01-01

    People often choose intuitive rather than equally valid nonintuitive alternatives. The authors suggest that these intuitive biases arise because intuitions often spring to mind with subjective ease, and the subjective ease leads people to hold their intuitions with high confidence. An investigation of predictions against point spreads found that…

  20. Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Filippin, Antonio; Paccagnella, Marco

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the role played by self-confidence, modeled as beliefs about one's ability, in shaping task choices. We propose a model in which fully rational agents exploit all the available information to update their beliefs using Bayes' rule, eventually learning their true type. We show that when the learning process does not…

  1. Does Students' Confidence in Their Ability in Mathematics Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parsons, Sarah; Croft, Tony; Harrison, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Research was conducted into first year engineering students' learning of mathematics in a university college during 2005-2007. The aims were to understand better students' confidences and explore which factors affected performance and how these were inter-related. Questionnaires were administered which posed questions regarding previous…

  2. Confidence bands for measured economically optimal nitrogen rates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    While numerous researchers have computed economically optimal N rate (EONR) values from measured yield – N rate data, nearly all have neglected to compute or estimate the statistical reliability of these EONR values. In this study, a simple method for computing EONR and its confidence bands is descr...

  3. Constructing Approximate Confidence Intervals for Parameters with Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheung, Mike W. -L.

    2009-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) for parameters are usually constructed based on the estimated standard errors. These are known as Wald CIs. This article argues that likelihood-based CIs (CIs based on likelihood ratio statistics) are often preferred to Wald CIs. It shows how the likelihood-based CIs and the Wald CIs for many statistics and psychometric…

  4. Confidence Preserving Machine for Facial Action Unit Detection.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Jiabei; Chu, Wen-Sheng; De la Torre, Fernando; Cohn, Jeffrey F; Xiong, Zhang

    2016-07-27

    Facial action unit (AU) detection from video has been a long-standing problem in automated facial expression analysis. While progress has been made, accurate detection of facial AUs remains challenging due to ubiquitous sources of errors, such as inter-personal variability, pose, and low-intensity AUs. In this paper, we refer to samples causing such errors as hard samples, and the remaining as easy samples. To address learning with the hard samples, we propose the Confidence Preserving Machine (CPM), a novel two-stage learning framework that combines multiple classifiers following an "easy-to-hard" strategy. During the training stage, CPM learns two confident classifiers. Each classifier focuses on separating easy samples of one class from all else, and thus preserves confidence on predicting each class. During the testing stage, the confident classifiers provide "virtual labels" for easy test samples. Given the virtual labels, we propose a quasi-semi-supervised (QSS) learning strategy to learn a person-specific (PS) classifier. The QSS strategy employs a spatio-temporal smoothness that encourages similar predictions for samples within a spatio-temporal neighborhood. In addition, to further improve detection performance, we introduce two CPM extensions: iCPM that iteratively augments training samples to train the confident classifiers, and kCPM that kernelizes the original CPM model to promote nonlinearity. Experiments on four spontaneous datasets GFT [15], BP4D [56], DISFA [42], and RU-FACS [3] illustrate the benefits of the proposed CPM models over baseline methods and state-of-the-art semisupervised learning and transfer learning methods.

  5. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    PubMed Central

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  6. Independent Neural Computation of Value from Other People's Confidence.

    PubMed

    Campbell-Meiklejohn, Daniel; Simonsen, Arndis; Frith, Chris D; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2017-01-18

    Expectation of reward can be shaped by the observation of actions and expressions of other people in one's environment. A person's apparent confidence in the likely reward of an action, for instance, makes qualities of their evidence, not observed directly, socially accessible. This strategy is computationally distinguished from associative learning methods that rely on direct observation, by its use of inference from indirect evidence. In twenty-three healthy human subjects, we isolated effects of first-hand experience, other people's choices, and the mediating effect of their confidence, on decision-making and neural correlates of value within ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). Value derived from first-hand experience and other people's choices (regardless of confidence) were indiscriminately represented across vmPFC. However, value computed from agent choices weighted by their associated confidence was represented with specificity for ventromedial area 10. This pattern corresponds to shifts of connectivity and overlapping cognitive processes along a posterior-anterior vmPFC axis. Task behavior and self-reported self-reliance for decision-making in other social contexts correlated. The tendency to conform in other social contexts corresponded to increased activation in cortical regions previously shown to respond to social conflict in proportion to subsequent conformity (Campbell-Meiklejohn et al., 2010). The tendency to self-monitor predicted a selectively enhanced response to accordance with others in the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ). The findings anatomically decompose vmPFC value representations according to computational requirements and provide biological insight into the social transmission of preference and reassurance gained from the confidence of others.

  7. Encouraging workers to save: the 2005 Retirement Confidence Survey.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Salisbury, Dallas; Paladino, Variny; Copeland, Craig

    2005-04-01

    This Issue Brief reports findings of the 15th annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS), which points to potential solutions to the American retirement savings problem, specifically ways that could help workers save more through their employment-based retirement plans. IMPORTANCE OF EMPLOYER MATCH: More than 7 in 10 workers not currently contributing to their employer-sponsored retirement plan say an employer contribution of up to 5 percent of their salary would make them much more or somewhat more likely to participate (72 percent). SIMPLIFIED OPTIONS: Other retirement plan options that nonparticipants say would make them more likely to contribute are an investment option that automatically becomes more conservative as their retirement date approaches (66 percent) and a feature that automatically raises workers' contributions by a fixed amount or percentage when they receive a pay raise (55 percent). Two-thirds of nonparticipants indicate they would be very or somewhat likely to remain in their employer's plan if they were automatically enrolled (66 percent). SOCIAL SECURITY: Nearly 7 in 10 of today's workers are skeptical that Social Security will continue to provide benefits of at least equal value to those received by current retirees (68 percent). This proportion has remained relatively constant in recent years, but is below the 1995 level (79 percent). Workers continue to be unable to identify the age at which they will be eligible for full Social Security benefits. MOST BEHIND SCHEDULE IN SAVING: A majority of workers believe they are behind schedule when it comes to planning and saving for retirement (55 percent). Most of those behind schedule say that high expenses, particularly everyday expenses (49 percent), child-rearing expenses (39 percent), and medical costs (35 percent), are a major factor in keeping them from saving. LESS THAN HALF HAVE TRIED TO CALCULATE NEEDED SAVINGS: Approximately 4 in 10 workers say they have tried to calculate how much they

  8. A National Radiation Oncology Medical Student Clerkship Survey: Didactic Curricular Components Increase Confidence in Clinical Competency

    SciTech Connect

    Jagadeesan, Vikrant S.; Raleigh, David R.; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J.; Golden, Daniel W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete 1 or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials: An anonymous, Internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012-2013 academic year. The survey was composed of 3 main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results: The survey response rate was 37% (70 of 188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. Of the respondents, 27% (19 of 70) completed at least 1 clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent's confidence to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank–sum P=.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman ρ P=.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman ρ P=.43). Conclusions: Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation oncology resident. These results

  9. Cognitive Abilities, Monitoring Confidence, and Control Thresholds Explain Individual Differences in Heuristics and Biases

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Simon A.; Kleitman, Sabina; Howie, Pauline; Stankov, Lazar

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate whether individual differences in performance on heuristic and biases tasks can be explained by cognitive abilities, monitoring confidence, and control thresholds. Current theories explain individual differences in these tasks by the ability to detect errors and override automatic but biased judgments, and deliberative cognitive abilities that help to construct the correct response. Here we retain cognitive abilities but disentangle error detection, proposing that lower monitoring confidence and higher control thresholds promote error checking. Participants (N = 250) completed tasks assessing their fluid reasoning abilities, stable monitoring confidence levels, and the control threshold they impose on their decisions. They also completed seven typical heuristic and biases tasks such as the cognitive reflection test and Resistance to Framing. Using structural equation modeling, we found that individuals with higher reasoning abilities, lower monitoring confidence, and higher control threshold performed significantly and, at times, substantially better on the heuristic and biases tasks. Individuals with higher control thresholds also showed lower preferences for risky alternatives in a gambling task. Furthermore, residual correlations among the heuristic and biases tasks were reduced to null, indicating that cognitive abilities, monitoring confidence, and control thresholds accounted for their shared variance. Implications include the proposal that the capacity to detect errors does not differ between individuals. Rather, individuals might adopt varied strategies that promote error checking to different degrees, regardless of whether they have made a mistake or not. The results support growing evidence that decision-making involves cognitive abilities that construct actions and monitoring and control processes that manage their initiation. PMID:27790170

  10. Cognitive Abilities, Monitoring Confidence, and Control Thresholds Explain Individual Differences in Heuristics and Biases.

    PubMed

    Jackson, Simon A; Kleitman, Sabina; Howie, Pauline; Stankov, Lazar

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate whether individual differences in performance on heuristic and biases tasks can be explained by cognitive abilities, monitoring confidence, and control thresholds. Current theories explain individual differences in these tasks by the ability to detect errors and override automatic but biased judgments, and deliberative cognitive abilities that help to construct the correct response. Here we retain cognitive abilities but disentangle error detection, proposing that lower monitoring confidence and higher control thresholds promote error checking. Participants (N = 250) completed tasks assessing their fluid reasoning abilities, stable monitoring confidence levels, and the control threshold they impose on their decisions. They also completed seven typical heuristic and biases tasks such as the cognitive reflection test and Resistance to Framing. Using structural equation modeling, we found that individuals with higher reasoning abilities, lower monitoring confidence, and higher control threshold performed significantly and, at times, substantially better on the heuristic and biases tasks. Individuals with higher control thresholds also showed lower preferences for risky alternatives in a gambling task. Furthermore, residual correlations among the heuristic and biases tasks were reduced to null, indicating that cognitive abilities, monitoring confidence, and control thresholds accounted for their shared variance. Implications include the proposal that the capacity to detect errors does not differ between individuals. Rather, individuals might adopt varied strategies that promote error checking to different degrees, regardless of whether they have made a mistake or not. The results support growing evidence that decision-making involves cognitive abilities that construct actions and monitoring and control processes that manage their initiation.

  11. THE ADOLESCENT MEASURE OF CONFIDENCE AND MUSCULOSKELETAL PERFORMANCE (AMCAMP): DEVELOPMENT AND INITIAL VALIDATION

    PubMed Central

    May, Keith H.; Edwards, Michael C.; Goldstein, Marc S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Although the relationship of self-efficacy to sports performance is well established, little attention has been paid to self-efficacy in the movements or actions that are required to perform daily activities and prepare the individual to resume sports participation following an injury and associated period of rehabilitation. There are no instruments to measure self-confidence in movement validated in an adolescent population. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report on the development of the AMCaMP, a self-report measure of confidence in movement and provide some initial evidence to support its use as a measure of confidence in movement. Methods The AMCaMP was adapted from OPTIMAL, a self-report instrument that measures confidence in movement, which had been previously designed and validated in an adult population. Data were collected from 1,115 adolescent athletes from 12 outpatient physical therapy clinics in a single healthcare system. Results Exploratory factor analysis of the 22 items of the AMCaMP using a test sample revealed a three factor structure (trunk, lower body, upper body). Confirmatory factor analysis using a validation sample demonstrated a similar model fit with the data. Reliability of scores on each of three clusters of items identified by factor analysis was assessed with coefficient alpha (range = 0.82 to 0.94), Standard Error of Measurement (1.38 to 2.74), and Minimum Detectable Change (3.83 to 7.6). Conclusions AMCaMP has acceptable psychometric properties for use in adolescents (ages 11 to 18) as a patient-centric outcome measure of confidence in movement abilities after rehabilitation. Level of Evidence IV PMID:27757282

  12. Confidence in dental care and public health competency during rural practice among new dental graduates in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    Wisaijohn, Thunthita; Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong; Topothai, Thitikorn; Seneerattanaprayul, Parinda; Pudpong, Nareerut; Putthasri, Weerasak

    2015-01-01

    Objective The dental profession has played an important role in the development of the health system in Thailand. However, it is not known if dental graduates’ standards of knowledge, skills, and capabilities are fulfilling the health needs of Thais. This study aimed to assess the level of confidence in dental public health competency among final-year dental students who graduated in 2013. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 571 new dental graduates who participated in an official meeting arranged by the Ministry of Public Health in 2013. Self-administered questionnaires were used for collecting data on their confidence levels in selected public-health competencies. Of the total graduates, 72.5% anonymously responded to the questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics, factor analysis, and stepwise regression were applied for data analysis. Results The majority of respondents expressed confidence in their ability to care for patients, but less confidence in public-health and administration competencies. The results also show that there was no significant association between demographic and educational profiles of respondents and confidence in their clinical competency. However, significantly more students who graduated from schools located outside Bangkok and vicinity rated themselves as competent in public health (coefficient = 0.333, P=0.021). Conclusion New dentists who graduated from dental schools in Bangkok and vicinity had lower levels of confidence in their public-health competencies compared to those who graduated from dental schools outside Bangkok. Thus, working in rural areas after graduation could help new dentists gain more experience in rural practice, leading to higher confidence levels. The findings from this study could contribute to the improvement of the dental curriculum and contract-bonding policy to work in rural areas. PMID:25565912

  13. DETERMINING CONFIDENCE OF PREDICTED INTERACTIONS BETWEEN HIV-1 AND HUMAN PROTEINS USING CONFORMAL METHOD

    PubMed Central

    Nouretdinov, Ilia; Gammerman, Alex; Qi, Yanjun; Klein-Seetharaman, Judith

    2011-01-01

    Identifying protein-protein interactions (PPI’s) is critical for understanding virtually all cellular molecular mechanisms. Previously, predicting PPI’s was treated as a binary classification task and has commonly been solved in a supervised setting which requires a positive labeled set of known PPI’s and a negative labeled set of non-interacting protein pairs. In those methods, the learner provides the likelihood of the predicted interaction, but without a confidence level associated with each prediction. Here, we apply a conformal prediction framework to make predictions and estimate confidence of the predictions. The conformal predictor uses a function measuring relative ’strangeness’ interacting pairs to check whether prediction of a new example added to the sequence of already known PPI’s would conform to the ’exchangeability’ assumption: distribution of interacting pairs is invariant with any permutations of the pairs. In fact, this is the only assumption we make about the data. Another advantage is that the user can control a number of errors by providing a desirable confidence level. This feature of CP is very useful for a ranking list of possible interactive pairs. In this paper, the conformal method has been developed to deal with just one class - class interactive proteins - while there is not clearly defined of ’non-interactive’ pairs. The confidence level helps the biologist in the interpretation of the results, and better assists the choices of pairs for experimental validation. We apply the proposed conformal framework to improve the identification of interacting pairs between HIV-1 and human proteins. PMID:22174286

  14. The Effects of Nonnormal Distributions on Confidence Intervals around the Standardized Mean Difference: Bootstrap and Parametric Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelley, Ken

    2005-01-01

    The standardized group mean difference, Cohen's "d", is among the most commonly used and intuitively appealing effect sizes for group comparisons. However, reporting this point estimate alone does not reflect the extent to which sampling error may have led to an obtained value. A confidence interval expresses the uncertainty that exists between…

  15. Understanding Creativity in the Workplace: An Examination of Individual Styles and Training in Relation to Creative Confidence and Creative Self-Leadership

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phelan, Sherry; Young, Angela M.

    2003-01-01

    Creative Self-Leadership and Creative Confidence were examined in relation to Creative Style Preference and Training. It was hypothesized that perceptions of Creative Self-Leadership and Creative Confidence were related to personal Creative Style Preferences and that Training would be associated with higher levels of Creative Self-Leadership and…

  16. The Development and Validation of a Tool to Measure Self-Confidence and Anxiety in Nursing Students While Making Clinical Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Krista Alaine

    2011-01-01

    Clinical decision making (CDM) is a cornerstone skill for nurses. Self-confidence and anxiety are two affective influences that impact the learning and adeptness of CDM. Currently, no instruments exist that measure perceived self-confidence and anxiety level of undergraduate nursing students related to CDM. The purpose of this research was to…

  17. Students' intentions towards studying science at upper-secondary school: the differential effects of under-confidence and over-confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Understanding students' intentions to study science at upper-secondary school, at university, and to follow science careers continues as a central concern for international science education. Prior research has highlighted that students' science confidence has been associated with their intentions to study science further, although under-confidence and over-confidence (lower or higher confidence than expected, given someone's attainment) have not been considered in detail. Accordingly, this study explored whether under-confident, accurately evaluating, and over-confident students expressed different attitudes towards their science education, and explored how under-confidence and over-confidence might influence students' science intentions. The questionnaire responses of 1523 students from 12 secondary schools in England were considered through analysis of variance and predictive modelling. Under-confident students expressed consistently lower science attitudes than accurately evaluating and over-confident students, despite reporting the same science grades as accurately evaluating students. Students' intentions to study science were predicted by different factors in different ways, depending on whether the students were under-confident, accurate, or over-confident. For accurately evaluating and over-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-efficacy beliefs (their confidence in their expected future science attainment). For under-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-concept beliefs (their confidence in currently 'doing well' or 'being good' at science). Many other differences were also apparent. Fundamentally, under-confidence may be detrimental not simply through associating with lower attitudes, but through students considering their choices in different ways. Under-confidence may accordingly require attention to help ensure that students' future choices are not unnecessarily constrained.

  18. Calculation of retention time tolerance windows with absolute confidence from shared liquid chromatographic retention data.

    PubMed

    Boswell, Paul G; Abate-Pella, Daniel; Hewitt, Joshua T

    2015-09-18

    Compound identification by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) is a tedious process, mainly because authentic standards must be run on a user's system to be able to confidently reject a potential identity from its retention time and mass spectral properties. Instead, it would be preferable to use shared retention time/index data to narrow down the identity, but shared data cannot be used to reject candidates with an absolute level of confidence because the data are strongly affected by differences between HPLC systems and experimental conditions. However, a technique called "retention projection" was recently shown to account for many of the differences. In this manuscript, we discuss an approach to calculate appropriate retention time tolerance windows for projected retention times, potentially making it possible to exclude candidates with an absolute level of confidence, without needing to have authentic standards of each candidate on hand. In a range of multi-segment gradients and flow rates run among seven different labs, the new approach calculated tolerance windows that were significantly more appropriate for each retention projection than global tolerance windows calculated for retention projections or linear retention indices. Though there were still some small differences between the labs that evidently were not taken into account, the calculated tolerance windows only needed to be relaxed by 50% to make them appropriate for all labs. Even then, 42% of the tolerance windows calculated in this study without standards were narrower than those required by WADA for positive identification, where standards must be run contemporaneously.

  19. Bootstrap confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a quantitative diagnostic test.

    PubMed

    Platt, R W; Hanley, J A; Yang, H

    2000-02-15

    We examine bootstrap approaches to the analysis of the sensitivity of quantitative diagnostic test data. Methods exist for inference concerning the sensitivity of one or more tests for fixed levels of specificity, taking into account the variability in the sensitivity due to variability in the test values for normal subjects. However, parametric methods do not adequately account for error, particularly when the data are non-normally distributed, and non-parametric methods have low power. We implement bootstrap methods for confidence limits for the sensitivity of a test for a fixed specificity and demonstrate that under certain circumstances the bootstrap method gives more accurate confidence intervals than do other methods, while it performs at least as well as other methods in many standard situations.

  20. A massive experiment on choice blindness in political decisions: Confidence, confabulation, and unconscious detection of self-deception.

    PubMed

    Rieznik, Andrés; Moscovich, Lorena; Frieiro, Alan; Figini, Julieta; Catalano, Rodrigo; Garrido, Juan Manuel; Álvarez Heduan, Facundo; Sigman, Mariano; Gonzalez, Pablo A

    2017-01-01

    We implemented a Choice Blindness Paradigm containing political statements in Argentina to reveal the existence of categorical ranges of introspective reports, identified by confidence and agreement levels, separating easy from very hard to manipulate decisions. CBP was implemented in both live and web-based forms. Importantly, and contrary to what was observed in Sweden, we did not observe changes in voting intentions. Also, confidence levels in the manipulated replies where significantly lower than in non-manipulated cases even in undetected manipulations. We name this phenomenon unconscious detection of self-deception. Results also show that females are more difficult to manipulate than men.

  1. A massive experiment on choice blindness in political decisions: Confidence, confabulation, and unconscious detection of self-deception

    PubMed Central

    Rieznik, Andrés; Moscovich, Lorena; Frieiro, Alan; Figini, Julieta; Catalano, Rodrigo; Garrido, Juan Manuel; Álvarez Heduan, Facundo; Sigman, Mariano; Gonzalez, Pablo A.

    2017-01-01

    We implemented a Choice Blindness Paradigm containing political statements in Argentina to reveal the existence of categorical ranges of introspective reports, identified by confidence and agreement levels, separating easy from very hard to manipulate decisions. CBP was implemented in both live and web-based forms. Importantly, and contrary to what was observed in Sweden, we did not observe changes in voting intentions. Also, confidence levels in the manipulated replies where significantly lower than in non-manipulated cases even in undetected manipulations. We name this phenomenon unconscious detection of self-deception. Results also show that females are more difficult to manipulate than men. PMID:28196093

  2. A quantitative evaluation of confidence measures for stereo vision.

    PubMed

    Hu, Xiaoyan; Mordohai, Philippos

    2012-11-01

    We present an extensive evaluation of 17 confidence measures for stereo matching that compares the most widely used measures as well as several novel techniques proposed here. We begin by categorizing these methods according to which aspects of stereo cost estimation they take into account and then assess their strengths and weaknesses. The evaluation is conducted using a winner-take-all framework on binocular and multibaseline datasets with ground truth. It measures the capability of each confidence method to rank depth estimates according to their likelihood for being correct, to detect occluded pixels, and to generate low-error depth maps by selecting among multiple hypotheses for each pixel. Our work was motivated by the observation that such an evaluation is missing from the rapidly maturing stereo literature and that our findings would be helpful to researchers in binocular and multiview stereo.

  3. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    PubMed Central

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  4. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  5. An Overview of Space Exploration Simulation (Basis of Confidence) Documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bray, Alleen; Hale, Joseph P.

    2006-01-01

    Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations by providing critical information that supports key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision making. In this presentation we will describe how development of simulation capability documentation will be used to form a Basis of Confidence (Basis of Confidence) for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) M&S. The process by which BOC documentation is developed will be addressed, as well as the structure and critical concepts that are essential for establishing credibility of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) legacy M&S. We will illustrate the significance of BOC documentation in supporting decision makers and Accreditation Authorities in M&S risk management.

  6. Expanded practice roles for community mental health nurses in Australia: confidence, critical factors for preparedness, and perceived barriers.

    PubMed

    Elsom, Stephen; Happell, Brenda; Manias, Elizabeth

    2008-07-01

    As the momentum for nurse practitioner roles rapidly increases in Australia, little scholarly attention has been directed towards barriers to role expansion, the confidence necessary to undertake expanded practice roles (other than prescription of medication), or the educational preparation required for expanded roles. This paper reports on community mental health nurses' views regarding confidence to undertake expanded roles, their opinions regarding the necessary preparation for such roles, and barriers to role expansion. An questionnaire was administered to 296 community mental health nurses employed in metropolitan and rural settings in Victoria, Australia. In regards to various domains of expanded practice, nurses were least confident about prescribing but more than half (54%) reported that they would either "definitely" or "probably" feel confident. Over 90% reported "probably" or "definitely" feeling confident to make recommendations for involuntary treatment. Eighty-four percent and 79% reported similar levels of confidence in relation to ordering diagnostic tests and referring patients to medical specialists, respectively. Most (95%) agreed that extra educational preparation was necessary in relation to undertaking expanded practice roles successfully. Factors considered most strongly as barriers to expanded nursing practice included the medical profession, followed by fear of litigation, and government departments and policies.

  7. Representing Autonomous Systems Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-01

    Thomas Hughes Infoscitex Corporation , Dayton, OH, USA A method for determining the self-confidence of autonomous systems is proposed to assist...teaming. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The work presented was supported by the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) and Infoscitex Corporation . REFERENCES...Henson, T. D., Daniels, J. W., Jordan, J. D., Shcroder, K. L., & Shokair, I. R. (1998). Sandia multispectral airborne lidar for UAV deployment

  8. Confidence Links Between Name Entities in Disparate Documents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-03

    entity/subject. For example, the Wikipedia page title for the article referring to Benjamin Franklin (the Founding Father of the United States) is...differ- ent from the page title for the article referring to Benjamin Franklin (the 19’h century religious leader). Using this infor- 60 mation...c12) United States Patent Baronet al. (54) CONFIDENCE LINKS BETWEEN NAME ENTITIES IN DISPARATE DOCUMENTS (75) Inventors : Alex Baron, Canton, MA

  9. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    PubMed

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  10. Empirical Determination of Pattern Match Confidence in Labeled Graphs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-02-07

    valid, and the indicated false positive rates could be misleading . Further study of real-world datasets should reveal if such graphs appear within...labeled graphs Dr. Ben Migliori, Dr. Daniel Grady, and Dr. James Law Prepared by Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center, 53560 Hull Street, San Diego...to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Empirical determination of pattern match confidence in labeled graphs 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER

  11. Empirical Likelihood-Based Confidence Interval of ROC Curves.

    PubMed

    Su, Haiyan; Qin, Yongsong; Liang, Hua

    2009-11-01

    In this article we propose an empirical likelihood-based confidence interval for receiver operating characteristic curves which are based on a continuous-scale test. The approach is easily understood, simply implemented, and computationally efficient. The results from our simulation studies indicate that the finite-sample numerical performance slightly outperforms the most promising methods published recently. Two real datasets are analyzed by using the proposed method and the existing bootstrap-based method.

  12. Confidant Network Types and Well-Being Among Older Europeans

    PubMed Central

    Litwin, Howard; Stoeckel, Kimberly J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: To derive a typology of confidant networks among older adults in Europe and to examine them in relation to country differences and well-being (CASP-12). Design and Methods: The study population was composed of persons aged 65 and older in 16 countries from the 4th wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (N = 28,697). K-means cluster analysis was applied to data from a newly implemented name-generating network inventory. CASP-12 scores were regressed on network type controlling for country and potential sociodemographic and health confounders. Results: Six prototypical confidant network types were discerned, including proximal and distal family-based networks of varying configurations, as well as friend-based and other-based network types. Regional country differences in network type constellations were observed. Better well-being was found to be associated with network types with greater social capital. Respondents with no named confidants had the lowest CASP-12 scores, and those embedded in “other” network types also exhibited a negative association with well-being. Implications: The study demonstrates the utility of name-generating network inventories in understanding the social capital of older persons. It also shows that accessible family ties are strong correlates of well-being in this population. Finally, it documents the importance of improving the means to detect the small but significant subgroup of isolated older people—those who have no confidants on whom they may rely. PMID:23749390

  13. On Lower Confidence for PCS in Truncated Location Parameter Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-06-01

    statistic for the parameter 9i. The natural selection rule is to select the population yielding the largest Xi as the best population. Thus, a question ...group. Then, a reasonable question is: what kind of confidence statement can be made regarding the PCS? For this purpose, based on the above given data...Institute of Statistics Purdue University National Central University West Lafayette, IN, USA Chung-Li, Taiwan, R.O.C. TaChen Liang Department of Mathematics

  14. Enabling students to develop confidence in basic clinical skills.

    PubMed

    Mayne, Wendy; Jootun, Dev; Young, Beverley; Marland, Glenn; Harris, Margaret; Lyttle, C Paul

    An increase in the number of nursing students is making it difficult to guarantee those on the common foundation programme the opportunity to practise basic nursing skills. In order to address this problem a nursing college developed a skills week that enabled students to practise their skills and develop confidence. Simulated clinical situations gave students the opportunity to relate these skills to practice while learning about teamwork and holistic patient care.

  15. A quantitative confidence signal detection model: 1. Fitting psychometric functions

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Yongwoo

    2016-01-01

    Perceptual thresholds are commonly assayed in the laboratory and clinic. When precision and accuracy are required, thresholds are quantified by fitting a psychometric function to forced-choice data. The primary shortcoming of this approach is that it typically requires 100 trials or more to yield accurate (i.e., small bias) and precise (i.e., small variance) psychometric parameter estimates. We show that confidence probability judgments combined with a model of confidence can yield psychometric parameter estimates that are markedly more precise and/or markedly more efficient than conventional methods. Specifically, both human data and simulations show that including confidence probability judgments for just 20 trials can yield psychometric parameter estimates that match the precision of those obtained from 100 trials using conventional analyses. Such an efficiency advantage would be especially beneficial for tasks (e.g., taste, smell, and vestibular assays) that require more than a few seconds for each trial, but this potential benefit could accrue for many other tasks. PMID:26763777

  16. Some Improvements in Confidence Intervals for Standardized Regression Coefficients.

    PubMed

    Dudgeon, Paul

    2017-03-13

    Yuan and Chan (Psychometrika 76:670-690, 2011. doi: 10.1007/S11336-011-9224-6 ) derived consistent confidence intervals for standardized regression coefficients under fixed and random score assumptions. Jones and Waller (Psychometrika 80:365-378, 2015. doi: 10.1007/S11336-013-9380-Y ) extended these developments to circumstances where data are non-normal by examining confidence intervals based on Browne's (Br J Math Stat Psychol 37:62-83, 1984. doi: 10.1111/j.2044-8317.1984.tb00789.x ) asymptotic distribution-free (ADF) theory. Seven different heteroscedastic-consistent (HC) estimators were investigated in the current study as potentially better solutions for constructing confidence intervals on standardized regression coefficients under non-normality. Normal theory, ADF, and HC estimators were evaluated in a Monte Carlo simulation. Findings confirmed the superiority of the HC3 (MacKinnon and White, J Econ 35:305-325, 1985. doi: 10.1016/0304-4076(85)90158-7 ) and HC5 (Cribari-Neto and Da Silva, Adv Stat Anal 95:129-146, 2011. doi: 10.1007/s10182-010-0141-2 ) interval estimators over Jones and Waller's ADF estimator under all conditions investigated, as well as over the normal theory method. The HC5 estimator was more robust in a restricted set of conditions over the HC3 estimator. Some possible extensions of HC estimators to other effect size measures are considered for future developments.

  17. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  18. Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Stedinger, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient "weighting" procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed-form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA-based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood-quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25- to 100-year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

  19. Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times

    PubMed Central

    Kahana, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Classification of stimuli into categories (such as ‘old’ and ‘new’ in tests of recognition memory or ‘present’ versus ‘absent’ in signal detection tasks) requires the mapping of internal signals to discrete responses. Introspective judgements about a given choice response are regularly employed in research, legal and clinical settings in an effort to measure the signal that is thought to be the basis of the classification decision. Correlations between introspective judgements and task performance suggest that such ratings often do convey information about internal states that are relevant for a given task, but well-known limitations of introspection call the fidelity of this information into question. We investigated to what extent response times can reveal information usually assessed with explicit confidence ratings. We quantitatively compared response times to confidence ratings in their ability to qualify recognition memory decisions and found convergent results suggesting that much of the information from confidence ratings can be obtained from response times. PMID:27152209

  20. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  1. Family Partner Intervention Influences Self-Care Confidence and Treatment Self-Regulation in Patients with Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Stamp, Kelly D.; Dunbar, Sandra B.; Clark, Patricia C.; Reilly, Carolyn M.; Gary, Rebecca A.; Higgins, Melinda; Ryan, Richard M

    2015-01-01

    Background Heart failure self-care requires confidence in one’s ability and motivation to perform a recommended behavior. Most self-care occurs within a family context, yet little is known about the influence of family on heart failure self-care or motivating factors. Aims To examine the association of family functioning and the self-care antecedents of confidence and motivation among heart failure participants and determine if a family partnership intervention would promote higher levels of perceived confidence and treatment self-regulation (motivation) at four and eight months compared to patient-family education or usual care groups. Methods Heart failure patients (N = 117) and a family member were randomized to a family partnership intervention, patient-family education or usual care groups. Measures of patient’s perceived family functioning, confidence, motivation for medications and following a low-sodium diet were analyzed. Data were collected at baseline, four and eight months. Results Family functioning was related to self-care confidence for diet (p=.02) and autonomous motivation for adhering to their medications (p=.05 and diet p=0.2). The family partnership intervention group significantly improved confidence (p=.05) and motivation (medications (p=.004; diet p=.012) at four months whereas patient-family education group and usual care did not change. Conclusion Perceived confidence and motivation for self-care was enhanced by family partnership intervention, regardless of family functioning. Poor family functioning at baseline contributed to lower confidence. Family functioning should be assessed to guide tailored family-patient interventions for better outcomes. PMID:25673525

  2. Role of balance ability and confidence in prosthetic use for mobility of people with lower-limb loss.

    PubMed

    Wong, Christopher Kevin; Chen, Christine C; Benoy, Stephany A; Rahal, Rana T; Blackwell, Wren M

    2014-01-01

    For people with lower-limb loss, impaired balance is common and limits prosthetic function within the community. This cross-sectional study (1) analyzed relationships among prosthetic use for mobility, balance ability and confidence, and amputation-related variables and (2) determined multivariate models to identify level of prosthetic use. Subjects included 46 community-dwelling adults (mean age 56.2 yr) with limb loss (91.3% unilateral) of varied levels (52.2% transtibial) and etiologies (69.6% vascular). A three-variable linear regression model including balance ability, balance confidence, and years since amputation explained 63.7% of variance in the Houghton scale of prosthetic use score. A logistic regression model including the 14-task Berg Balance Scale, balance confidence, years since amputation, age, and number of comorbidities correctly differentiated between people who had reached a satisfactory level of prosthetic use or not 89.1% of the time. The first three variables demonstrated moderate accuracy with positive likelihood ratios from 2.34 to 4.35. The regression model was further reduced to correctly classify 87.0% of cases with three balance ability tasks (retrieving objects from floor, turning to look behind, and placing alternate foot on stool), balance confidence, and numbers of comorbidities. Logistic models that include balance ability, balance confidence, and numbers of comorbidities can identify level of prosthetic use in people with lower-limb loss. Increased balance confidence and ability when retrieving objects from floor, turning to look behind, and placing alternate foot on stool were most indicative of successful prosthetic use for mobility.

  3. A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

    2007-01-01

    In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

  4. Confidence intervals for a crop yield-loss function in nonlinear regression

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, E.H.; Tingey, D.T.; Hogsett, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    Quantifying the relationship between chronic pollutant exposure and the ensuring biological response requires consideration of nonlinear functions that are flexible enough to generate a wide range of response curves. The linear approximation interval estimates for ozone-induced relative crop yield loss are sensitive to parameter curvature effects in nonlinear regression. The adequacy of Wald's confidence interval for proportional response is studied using the nonlinearity measures proposed by Bates and Watts (1980), Cook and Goldberg (1986), and Clarke (1987a b) and the profile t plots of Bates and Watts (1988). Numerical examples comparing Wald's, likelihood ratio, the bootstrap, and Clarke's adjusted 95% confidence intervals for relative crop yield loss are presented for a number of ozone exposure studies conducted by the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN) program. At ambient levels of ozone concentration, the effects of nonlinearity were significant and invalidated the adequacy of Wald's confidence interval. Depending upon the severity of the curvature effects, an alternative interval (i.e., Clarke's adjustment to Wald's interval or the likelihood ratio interval) for proportional yield loss should be considered.

  5. Improving confidence in (Q)SAR predictions under Canada's Chemicals Management Plan - a chemical space approach.

    PubMed

    Kulkarni, S A; Benfenati, E; Barton-Maclaren, T S

    2016-10-20

    One of the key challenges of Canada's Chemicals Management Plan (CMP) is assessing chemicals with limited/no empirical hazard data for their risk to human health. In some instances, these chemicals have not been tested broadly for their toxicological potency; as such, limited information exists on their potential to induce human health effects following exposure. Although (quantitative) structure activity relationship ((Q)SAR) models are able to generate predictions to address data gaps for certain toxicological endpoints, the confidence in predictions also needs to be addressed. One way to address this issue is to apply a chemical space approach. This approach uses international toxicological databases, for example, those available in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) QSAR Toolbox. The approach,assesses a model's ability to predict the potential hazards of chemicals that have limited hazard data that require assessment under the CMP when compared to a larger, data-rich chemical space that is structurally similar to chemicals of interest. This evaluation of a model's predictive ability makes (Q)SAR analysis more transparent and increases confidence in the application of these predictions in a risk-assessment context. Using this approach, predictions for such chemicals obtained from four (Q)SAR models were successfully classified into high, medium and low confidence levels to better inform their use in decision-making.

  6. Asymptotic confidence interval construction for proportion difference in medical studies with bilateral data.

    PubMed

    Tang, Nian-Sheng; Qiu, Shi-Fang; Tang, Man-Lai; Pei, Yan-Bo

    2011-06-01

    Bilateral dichotomous data are very common in modern medical comparative studies (e.g. comparison of two treatments in ophthalmologic, orthopaedic and otolaryngologic studies) in which information involving paired organs (e.g. eyes, ears and hips) is available from each subject. In this article, we study various confidence interval estimators for proportion difference based on Wald-type statistics, Fieller theorem, likelihood ratio statistic, score statistics and bootstrap resampling method under the dependence or/and independence models for bilateral binary data. Performance is evaluated with respect to the coverage probability and expected width via simulation studies. Our empirical results show that (1) ignoring the dependence feature of bilateral data could lead to severely incorrect coverage probabilities; and (2) Wald-type, score-type and bootstrap confidence intervals based on the dependence model perform satisfactorily for small to large sample sizes in the sense that their empirical coverage probabilities are close to the pre-specified nominal confidence level and are hence recommended. A real data from an otolaryngologic study is used to illustrate the proposed methods.

  7. Spatiotemporal dissociation of brain activity underlying subjective awareness, objective performance and confidence.

    PubMed

    Li, Qi; Hill, Zachary; He, Biyu J

    2014-03-19

    Despite intense recent research, the neural correlates of conscious visual perception remain elusive. The most established paradigm for studying brain mechanisms underlying conscious perception is to keep the physical sensory inputs constant and identify brain activities that correlate with the changing content of conscious awareness. However, such a contrast based on conscious content alone would not only reveal brain activities directly contributing to conscious perception, but also include brain activities that precede or follow it. To address this issue, we devised a paradigm whereby we collected, trial-by-trial, measures of objective performance, subjective awareness, and the confidence level of subjective awareness. Using magnetoencephalography recordings in healthy human volunteers, we dissociated brain activities underlying these different cognitive phenomena. Our results provide strong evidence that widely distributed slow cortical potentials (SCPs) correlate with subjective awareness, even after the effects of objective performance and confidence were both removed. The SCP correlate of conscious perception manifests strongly in its waveform, phase, and power. In contrast, objective performance and confidence were both contributed by relatively transient brain activity. These results shed new light on the brain mechanisms of conscious, unconscious, and metacognitive processing.

  8. Augmenting Chinese hamster genome assembly by identifying regions of high confidence.

    PubMed

    Vishwanathan, Nandita; Bandyopadhyay, Arpan A; Fu, Hsu-Yuan; Sharma, Mohit; Johnson, Kathryn C; Mudge, Joann; Ramaraj, Thiruvarangan; Onsongo, Getiria; Silverstein, Kevin A T; Jacob, Nitya M; Le, Huong; Karypis, George; Hu, Wei-Shou

    2016-09-01

    Chinese hamster Ovary (CHO) cell lines are the dominant industrial workhorses for therapeutic recombinant protein production. The availability of genome sequence of Chinese hamster and CHO cells will spur further genome and RNA sequencing of producing cell lines. However, the mammalian genomes assembled using shot-gun sequencing data still contain regions of uncertain quality due to assembly errors. Identifying high confidence regions in the assembled genome will facilitate its use for cell engineering and genome engineering. We assembled two independent drafts of Chinese hamster genome by de novo assembly from shotgun sequencing reads and by re-scaffolding and gap-filling the draft genome from NCBI for improved scaffold lengths and gap fractions. We then used the two independent assemblies to identify high confidence regions using two different approaches. First, the two independent assemblies were compared at the sequence level to identify their consensus regions as "high confidence regions" which accounts for at least 78 % of the assembled genome. Further, a genome wide comparison of the Chinese hamster scaffolds with mouse chromosomes revealed scaffolds with large blocks of collinearity, which were also compiled as high-quality scaffolds. Genome scale collinearity was complemented with EST based synteny which also revealed conserved gene order compared to mouse. As cell line sequencing becomes more commonly practiced, the approaches reported here are useful for assessing the quality of assembly and potentially facilitate the engineering of cell lines.

  9. Line segment confidence region-based string matching method for map conflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huh, Yong; Yang, Sungchul; Ga, Chillo; Yu, Kiyun; Shi, Wenzhong

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, a method to detect corresponding point pairs between polygon object pairs with a string matching method based on a confidence region model of a line segment is proposed. The optimal point edit sequence to convert the contour of a target object into that of a reference object was found by the string matching method which minimizes its total error cost, and the corresponding point pairs were derived from the edit sequence. Because a significant amount of apparent positional discrepancies between corresponding objects are caused by spatial uncertainty and their confidence region models of line segments are therefore used in the above matching process, the proposed method obtained a high F-measure for finding matching pairs. We applied this method for built-up area polygon objects in a cadastral map and a topographical map. Regardless of their different mapping and representation rules and spatial uncertainties, the proposed method with a confidence level at 0.95 showed a matching result with an F-measure of 0.894.

  10. A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu, L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

    2006-01-01

    In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Ovenvrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter error are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

  11. Optical variability of X-ray-selected QSOs

    SciTech Connect

    Pica, A.J.; Webb, J.R.; Smith, A.G.; Leacock, R.J.; Bitran, M.

    1987-08-01

    Photometric data for ten X-ray-selected quasistellar objects have been obtained from archival records of the Rosemary Hill Observatory. Reliable magnitudes were obtained for seven of the ten sources and six displayed optical variations significant at the 95 percent confidence level or greater. One source appeared to exhibit optically violent behavior. Light curves and photographic magnitudes are presented and discussed. 22 references.

  12. Optical variability of X-ray-selected QSOs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pica, Andrew J.; Webb, James R.; Smith, Alex G.; Leacock, Robert J.; Bitran, Mauricio

    1987-08-01

    Photometric data for ten X-ray-selected quasistellar objects have been obtained from archival records of the Rosemary Hill Observatory. Reliable magnitudes were obtained for seven of the ten sources and six displayed optical variations significant at the 95 percent confidence level or greater. One source appeared to exhibit optically violent behavior. Light curves and photographic magnitudes are presented and discussed.

  13. Evidence classification of high-throughput protocols and confidence integration in RegulonDB

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Verena; Medina-Rivera, Alejandra; Huerta, Araceli M.; Santos-Zavaleta, Alberto; Salgado, Heladia; Morett, Enrique; Collado-Vides, Julio

    2013-01-01

    RegulonDB provides curated information on the transcriptional regulatory network of Escherichia coli and contains both experimental data and computationally predicted objects. To account for the heterogeneity of these data, we introduced in version 6.0, a two-tier rating system for the strength of evidence, classifying evidence as either ‘weak’ or ‘strong’ (Gama-Castro,S., Jimenez-Jacinto,V., Peralta-Gil,M. et al. RegulonDB (Version 6.0): gene regulation model of Escherichia Coli K-12 beyond transcription, active (experimental) annotated promoters and textpresso navigation. Nucleic Acids Res., 2008;36:D120–D124.). We now add to our classification scheme the classification of high-throughput evidence, including chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and RNA-seq technologies. To integrate these data into RegulonDB, we present two strategies for the evaluation of confidence, statistical validation and independent cross-validation. Statistical validation involves verification of ChIP data for transcription factor-binding sites, using tools for motif discovery and quality assessment of the discovered matrices. Independent cross-validation combines independent evidence with the intention to mutually exclude false positives. Both statistical validation and cross-validation allow to upgrade subsets of data that are supported by weak evidence to a higher confidence level. Likewise, cross-validation of strong confidence data extends our two-tier rating system to a three-tier system by introducing a third confidence score ‘confirmed’. Database URL: http://regulondb.ccg.unam.mx/ PMID:23327937

  14. Basic Confidence Predictors of Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paulsen, Alisa M.; Betz, Nancy E.

    2004-01-01

    The extent to which Basic Confidence Scales predicted career decision-making self-efficacy was studied in a sample of 627 undergraduate students. Six confidence variables accounted for 49% of the variance in career decision-making self-efficacy. Leadership confidence was the most important, but confidence in science, mathematics, writing, using…

  15. On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

    2007-01-01

    A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

  16. Professional values, self-esteem, and ethical confidence of baccalaureate nursing students.

    PubMed

    Iacobucci, Trisha A; Daly, Barbara J; Lindell, Debbie; Griffin, Mary Quinn

    2013-06-01

    Professional identity and competent ethical behaviors of nursing students are commonly developed through curricular inclusion of professional nursing values education. Despite the enactment of this approach, nursing students continue to express difficulty in managing ethical conflicts encountered in their practice. This descriptive correlational study explores the relationships between professional nursing values, self-esteem, and ethical decision making among senior baccalaureate nursing students. A convenience sample of 47 senior nursing students from the United States were surveyed for their level of internalized professional nursing values (Revised Professional Nursing Values Scale), level of self-esteem (Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale), and perceived level of confidence in ethical decision making. A significant positive relationship (p < 0.05) was found between nursing students' professional nursing values and levels of self-esteem. The results of this study can be useful to nursing educators whose efforts are focused on promoting professional identity development and competent ethical behaviors of future nurses.

  17. A recipe for the construction of confidence limits

    SciTech Connect

    Iain A Bertram et al.

    2000-04-12

    In this note, the authors present the recipe recommended by the Search Limits Committee for the construction of confidence intervals for the use of D0 collaboration. In another note, currently in preparation, they present the rationale for this recipe, a critique of the current literature on this topic, and several examples of the use of the method. This note is intended to fill the need of the collaboration to have a reference available until the more complete note is finished. Section 2 introduces the notation used in this note, and Section 3 contains the suggested recipe.

  18. Role of Seismic Calibration as a Confidence-Building Measure

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, L A; Zucca, J JW S; Phillips, W S

    2000-07-20

    Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) address the political goal of alleviating compliance concerns raised by chemical explosions and the technical goal of calibrating the International Monitoring System (IMS; ref. Article IV, E, and Part 111 of the Protocol to the treaty). The term ''calibration'' only appears in the treaty associated with CBMs and On-Site Inspection and has different meanings in each case. This difference can be illustrated through the use of a simple, conceptual equation:

  19. Confidence interval construction for proportion ratio in paired studies based on hybrid method.

    PubMed

    Tang, Man-Lai; Li, Hui-Qiong; Tang, Nian-Sheng

    2012-08-01

    In this article, we consider confidence interval construction for proportion ratio in paired samples. Previous studies usually reported that score-based confidence intervals consistently outperformed other asymptotic confidence intervals for correlated proportion difference and ratio. However, score-based confidence intervals may not possess closed-form solutions and iterative procedures are therefore required. This article investigates the problem of confidence interval construction for ratio of two correlated proportions based on a hybrid method. Briefly, the hybrid method simply combines two separate confidence intervals for two individual proportions to produce a hybrid confidence interval for the ratio of the two individual proportions in paired studies. Most importantly, confidence intervals based on this hybrid method possess explicit solutions. Our simulation studies indicate that hybrid Wilson score confidence intervals based on Fieller's theorem performs well. The proposed confidence intervals will be illustrated with three real examples.

  20. Auditing the TK and TPACK Confidence of Pre-Service Teachers: Are They Ready for the Profession?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jamieson-Proctor, Romina; Finger, Glenn; Albion, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Teacher education graduates need appropriate levels of confidence and capabilities in relation to technological knowledge (TK) as a basis for having technological pedagogical content knowledge (TPACK) to meet the challenges of learning and teaching in the 21st century. However, it should not be assumed that tomorrow's teachers enter the profession…

  1. Having Their Song Heard: Tracking Pre-Service Kindergarten Teachers' Perceptions and Confidence in Their Singing Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neokleous, Rania

    2013-01-01

    This paper reports a study investigating pre-service kindergarten teachers' confidence levels and perceptions regarding their singing skills, and the impact of a music methods course on these self-perceptions. The course incorporated singing instruction in 24 lectures and two 10-minute private singing tutorials at the beginning and middle of the…

  2. Speech-Language Pathologists' Knowledge of Genetics: Perceived Confidence, Attitudes, Knowledge Acquisition and Practice-Based Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tramontana, G. Michael; Blood, Ingrid M.; Blood, Gordon W.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine (a) the general knowledge bases demonstrated by school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the area of genetics, (b) the confidence levels of SLPs in providing services to children and their families with genetic disorders/syndromes, (c) the attitudes of SLPs regarding genetics and communication…

  3. The reliability of lumbar motion palpation using continuous analysis and confidence ratings: choosing a relevant index of agreement

    PubMed Central

    Cooperstein, Robert; Young, Morgan

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Most studies show motion palpation unreliable. This study’s primary objective was assessing its reliability using a continuous measure methods, most-fixated level paradigm, stratified by examiners’ confidence; and the secondary objective was comparing various indices of examiner agreement. Methods: Thirty-four minimally symptomatic participants were palpated in side posture by two experienced examiners. Interexaminer differences in identifying the most-fixated level and degree of examiner confidence were recorded. Indices of agreement were: Intraclass correlation coefficient, Mean and Median Examiner Absolute Examiner Differences, Root-Mean-Square Error and Bland-Altman Limits of Agreement. Results: Three of four reliability indices (excluding intraclass correlation) suggested on average examiners agreed on the most fixated motion segment, and agreement increased with confidence. Statistical measures of data dispersion were low. The analyses of subgroups were “fragile” due to small sample size. Discussion: Although subject homogeneity lowered ICC levels, the other reliability measures were not similarly impacted. Continuous measures statistical analysis demonstrates examiner agreement in situations where discrete analysis with kappa may not. Conclusion: Continuous analysis for the lumbar most-fixated level is reliable. Future studies will need a larger sample size to properly analyze subgroups based on examiner confidence. PMID:27385834

  4. How Special Are Teachers of Specialized Schools? Assessing Self-Confidence Levels in the Technology Domain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Çatma, Zehra; Corlu, Mehmet Sencer

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates whether specialized high school mathematics teachers, chosen to educate selected students, are mentally ready to integrate Fatih project technologies into their teaching. Forty mathematics teachers from randomly selected specialized and general high schools in Ankara responded to a survey comprising 31 items grouped under…

  5. Empowerment of health professionals: how high level security education can raise awareness and confidence.

    PubMed

    Herbst, Matthias; Busch, Christoph; Pharow, Peter; Blobel, Bernd

    2008-01-01

    Setting up networks among physicians and other health professionals in virtually any medical discipline is an important part of establishing eHealth world-wide. Medical research strategies nowadays advance diagnostic and therapeutic knowledge and guidelines allowing patients to benefits. Patient data and samples are among the most sensitive information and must carefully be protected according to rules of ethics and professional discretion as well as national and international privacy legislation. A lot has been said about "patient involvement, patient empowerment". What about health professionals? How can they be involved and empowered to address the paradigm shift towards a personalized health service provision? Information and communication technology (ICT), medical devices, and software applications are not among the topics health professionals typically deal with while being theoretically and practically trained to diagnose diseases and treat patients. An ICT-based training and information provision is required to update the ICT skills of health professionals. The German CAST association provides such an information platform where health professionals attend applied computer security education events. This article aims at describing how ICT and security education is provided to health professionals, and how these training courses are designed, structured, performed, and assessed.

  6. Autism Spectrum Disorders: Experience, Training, and Confidence Levels of School-Based Speech-Language Pathologists

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Plumb, Allison M.; Plexico, Laura W.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the graduate training experiences of school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) working with children with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). Comparisons were made between recent graduates (post 2006) and pre-2006 graduates to determine if differences existed in their academic and clinical experiences or their…

  7. Robust Framework to Combine Diverse Classifiers Assigning Distributed Confidence to Individual Classifiers at Class Level

    PubMed Central

    Arshad, Sannia; Rho, Seungmin

    2014-01-01

    We have presented a classification framework that combines multiple heterogeneous classifiers in the presence of class label noise. An extension of m-Mediods based modeling is presented that generates model of various classes whilst identifying and filtering noisy training data. This noise free data is further used to learn model for other classifiers such as GMM and SVM. A weight learning method is then introduced to learn weights on each class for different classifiers to construct an ensemble. For this purpose, we applied genetic algorithm to search for an optimal weight vector on which classifier ensemble is expected to give the best accuracy. The proposed approach is evaluated on variety of real life datasets. It is also compared with existing standard ensemble techniques such as Adaboost, Bagging, and Random Subspace Methods. Experimental results show the superiority of proposed ensemble method as compared to its competitors, especially in the presence of class label noise and imbalance classes. PMID:25295302

  8. Modes of occurrence of potentially hazardous elements in coal: levels of confidence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Finkelman, R.B.

    1994-01-01

    The modes of occurrence of the potentially hazardous elements in coal will be of significance in any attempt to reduce their mobilization due to coal combustion. Antimony and selenium may be present in solid solution in pyrite, as minute accessory sulfides dispersed throughout the organic matrix, or in organic association. Because of these modes of occurrence it is anticipated that less than 50% of these elements will be routinely removed by conventional coal cleaning procedures. Arsenic and mercury occur primarily in late-stage coarse-grained pyrite therefore physical coal cleaning procedures should be successful in removing substantial proportions of these elements. Cadmium occurs in sphalerite and lead in galena. Both of these minerals exhibit a wide range of particle sizes and textural relations. Depending on the particle size and textural relations, physical coal cleaning may remove as little as 25% of these elements or as much as 75%. Manganese in bituminous coal occurs in carbonates, especially siderite. Physical coal cleaning should remove a substantial proportion of this element. More information is needed to elucidate the modes of occurrence of beryllium, chromium, cobalt, and nickel. ?? 1994.

  9. Secondary At-Risk Students' Online Course Self-Confidence Levels: An Exploratory Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dennison, Shane D.

    2012-01-01

    Many high school seniors are either not graduating on time or not graduating at all. A computer-based course recovery program could help many struggling districts in this area of need. This study employed a non-experimental quantitative approach to address possible relationships between computer-based instruction and learning outcomes. The sample…

  10. Impact of Technology Based Instruction on Speech Competency and Presentation Confidence Levels of Hispanic College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mundy, Marie-Anne; Padilla Oviedo, Andres; Ramirez, Juan; Taylor, Nick; Flores, Itza

    2014-01-01

    One of the main goals of universities is to graduate students who are capable and competent in competing in the workforce. As presentational communication skills are critical in today's job market, Hispanic university students need to be trained to effectively develop and deliver presentational speeches. Web/technology enhanced training techniques…

  11. Key Concepts of Environmental Sustainability: Knowledge and Confidence Levels of FCS Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harden, Amy J.; Friesen, Carol A.; Thompson, Nancy E.

    2014-01-01

    Family and consumer sciences (FCS) is a logical discipline to promote environmental sustainability within the family because it is recognized as helping people make informed decisions about the well-being of individuals and their relationships and resources to achieve optimal quality of life.The objective of this article was to measure the…

  12. Entry-Level Athletic Trainers' Perceived Adequacy of Clinical Education in Preparation for Confident Professional Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shinew, Kayla A.

    2011-01-01

    Athletic training educators are responsible for giving athletic training students a proper environment in which they have opportunities to apply didactic knowledge using critical thinking and decision making skills in a real world context (Radtke, 2008). Clinical education needs to play an integral role in developing athletic training students…

  13. Reliability-based Design Optimization with Confidence Level for Non-Gaussian Distributions Using Bootstrap Method

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-01

    function ( PDF ) for i¼ 1,…,n. Inserting Eq. (6) into the second equation of Eq. (2), the hyper-sphere in the U–space can be expressed as the bt...G3ðXÞ ¼ 1 200=f2:5ð0:9010X1 0:4339X2 3Þ2 þ 8 0:4339X1 þ 0:9010X2ð Þ þ 5g (24) where three constraints are shown in Fig. 4. Table 10 shows the...Lognormal Fatigue ductility exponent, c 0.6000 0.150 Gaussian Fig. 8 Joint PDF contours of Gaussian and Frank copula iden- tified from 29 paired data

  14. High School Students' Proficiency and Confidence Levels in Displaying Their Understanding of Basic Electrolysis Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sia, Ding Teng; Treagust, David F.; Chandrasegaran, A. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study was conducted with 330 Form 4 (grade 10) students (aged 15-16 years) who were involved in a course of instruction on electrolysis concepts. The main purposes of this study were (1) to assess high school chemistry students' understanding of 19 major principles of electrolysis using a recently developed 2-tier multiple-choice diagnostic…

  15. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  16. Categorical evidence, confidence, and urgency during probabilistic categorization

    PubMed Central

    Braunlich, Kurt; Seger, Carol A.

    2015-01-01

    We used a temporally-extended categorization task to investigate the neural substrates underlying our ability to integrate information over time and across multiple stimulus features. Using model-based fMRI, we tracked the temporal evolution of two important variables as participants deliberated about impending choices: 1) categorical evidence, and 2) confidence (the total amount of evidence provided by the stimuli, irrespective of the particular category favored). Importantly, in each model, we also included a covariate which allowed us to differentiate signals related to information accumulation from other, evidence-independent functions that increased monotonically with time (such as urgency or cognitive load). We found that somatomotor regions tracked the temporal evolution of categorical evidence, while regions in both medial and lateral prefrontal cortex, inferior parietal cortex, and the striatum tracked decision confidence. As both theory and experimental work suggest that patterns of activity thought to be related to information-accumulation may reflect, in whole or in part, an interaction between sensory evidence and urgency, we additionally investigated whether urgency might modulate the slopes of the two evidence-dependent functions. We found that the slopes of both functions were likely modulated by urgency such that the difference between the high and low evidence states increased as the response deadline loomed. PMID:26564532

  17. Nursing students' confidence in medication calculations predicts math exam performance.

    PubMed

    Andrew, Sharon; Salamonson, Yenna; Halcomb, Elizabeth J

    2009-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties, including predictive validity, of the newly-developed nursing self-efficacy for mathematics (NSE-Math). The NSE-Math is a 12 item scale that comprises items related to mathematic and arithmetic concepts underpinning medication calculations. The NSE-Math instrument was administered to second year Bachelor of Nursing students enrolled in a nursing practice subject. Students' academic results for a compulsory medication calculation examination for this subject were collected. One-hundred and twelve students (73%) completed both the NSE-Math instrument and the drug calculation assessment task. The NSE-Math demonstrated two factors 'Confidence in application of mathematic concepts to nursing practice' and 'Confidence in arithmetic concepts' with 63.5% of variance explained. Cronbach alpha for the scale was 0.90. The NSE-Math demonstrated predictive validity with the medication calculation examination results (p=0.009). Psychometric testing suggests the NSE-Math is a valid measure of mathematics self-efficacy of second year nursing students.

  18. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z=(z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y (sup 0) = (y (sub 1) (sup 0), ..., y (sub D (sup 0)), using full or partial knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y (sup 0). The data space Y containing y(sup 0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x, Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. Confidence set inference is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface.

  19. Activities-Specific Balance Confidence in People with Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1–6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Gocog, 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to −0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society. PMID:22919491

  20. Activities-specific balance confidence in people with multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1-6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Go(cog), 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to -0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  1. Self-Confidence in and Perceived Utility of the Physical Examination: A Comparison of Medical Students, Residents, and Faculty Internists

    PubMed Central

    Fagan, Mark J.; Reinert, Steven E.; Diaz, Joseph A.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Little is known about the differences in attitudes of medical students, Internal Medicine residents, and faculty Internists toward the physical examination. We sought to investigate these groups’ self-confidence in and perceived utility of physical examination skills. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS Cross-sectional survey of third- and fourth-year medical students, Internal Medicine residents, and faculty Internists at an academic teaching hospital. MEASUREMENTS Using a 5-point Likert-type scale, respondents indicated their self-confidence in overall physical examination skill, as well as their ability to perform 14 individual skills, and how useful they felt the overall physical examination, and each skill, to be for yielding clinically important information. RESULTS The response rate was 80% (302/376). The skills with overall mean self-confidence ratings less than “neutral” were interpreting a diastolic murmur (2.9), detecting a thyroid nodule (2.8), and the nondilated fundoscopic examination using an ophthalmoscope to assess retinal vasculature (2.5). No skills had a mean utility rating less than neutral. The skills with the greatest numerical differences between mean self-confidence and perceived utility were distinguishing between a mole and melanoma (1.5), detecting a thyroid nodule (1.4), and interpreting a diastolic murmur (1.3). Regarding overall self-confidence, third-year students’ ratings (3.3) were similar to those of first-year residents (3.4; p = .95) but less than those of fourth-year students (3.8; p = .002), upper-level residents (3.7; p = .01), and faculty Internists (3.9; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS Self-confidence in the physical exam does not necessarily increase at each stage of training. The differences found between self-confidence and perceived utility for a number of skills suggest important areas for educational interventions. PMID:17922165

  2. Bias-corrected confidence intervals for the concentration parameter in a dilution assay.

    PubMed

    Wang, J; Basu, S

    1999-03-01

    Interval estimates of the concentration of target entities from a serial dilution assay are usually based on the maximum likelihood estimator. The distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator is skewed to the right and is positively biased. This bias results in interval estimates that either provide inadequate coverage relative to the nominal level or yield excessively long intervals. Confidence intervals based on both log transformation and bias reduction are proposed and are shown through simulations to provide appropriate coverage with shorter widths than the commonly used intervals in a variety of designs. An application to feline AIDS research, which motivated this work, is also presented.

  3. The Role of Residential Early Parenting Services in Increasing Parenting Confidence in Mothers with A History of Infertility

    PubMed Central

    Khajehei, Marjan; Finch, Lynette

    2016-01-01

    Background Mothers with a history of infertility may experience parenting difficulties and challenges. This study was conducted to investigate the role of residential early parenting services in increasing parenting confidence in mothers with a history of infertility. Materials and Methods This was a retrospective chart review study using the quantitative data from the clients attending the Karitane Residential Units and Parenting Services (known as Karitane RUs) during 2013. Parenting confidence (using Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale-KPCS), depression, demographics, reproductive and medical history, as well as child’s information were assessed from a sample of 27 mothers who had a history of infertility and who attended the Karitane RUs for support and assistance. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 19. Results More than half of the women (59.3%) reported a relatively low level of parenting confidence on the day of admission. The rate of low parenting confidence, however, dropped to 22.2% after receiving 4-5 days support and training in the Karitane RUs. The mean score of the KPCS increased from 36.9 ± 5.6 before the intervention to 41.1 ± 3.4 after the intervention, indicating an improvement in the parenting confidence of the mothers after attending the Karitane RUs (P<0.0001). No statistically significant association was found between maternal low parenting confidence with parental demographics (including age, country of birth, and employment status), a history of help-seeking, symptoms of depression, as well as child’s information [including gender, age, siblings, diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD) and use of medication]. Conclusion Having a child after a period of infertility can be a stressful experience for some mothers. This can result in low parenting confidence and affect parent-child attachment. Our findings emphasized on the role of the residential early parenting services in promoting the level of parenting confidence

  4. Professional confidence and job satisfaction: an examination of counselors' perceptions in faith-based and non-faith-based drug treatment programs.

    PubMed

    Chu, Doris C; Sung, Hung-En

    2014-08-01

    Understanding substance abuse counselors' professional confidence and job satisfaction is important since such confidence and satisfaction can affect the way counselors go about their jobs. Analyzing data derived from a random sample of 110 counselors from faith-based and non-faith-based treatment programs, this study examines counselors' professional confidence and job satisfaction in both faith-based and non-faith-based programs. The multivariate analyses indicate years of experience and being a certified counselor were the only significant predictors of professional confidence. There was no significant difference in perceived job satisfaction and confidence between counselors in faith-based and non-faith-based programs. A majority of counselors in both groups expressed a high level of satisfaction with their job. Job experience in drug counseling and prior experience as an abuser were perceived by counselors as important components to facilitate counseling skills. Policy implications are discussed.

  5. A science confidence gap: Education, trust in scientific methods, and trust in scientific institutions in the United States, 2014.

    PubMed

    Achterberg, Peter; de Koster, Willem; van der Waal, Jeroen

    2015-12-06

    Following up on suggestions that attitudes toward science are multi-dimensional, we analyze nationally representative survey data collected in the United States in 2014 (N = 2006), and demonstrate the existence of a science confidence gap: some people place great trust in scientific methods and principles, but simultaneously distrust scientific institutions. This science confidence gap is strongly associated with level of education: it is larger among the less educated than among the more educated. We investigate explanations for these educational differences. Whereas hypotheses deduced from reflexive-modernization theory do not pass the test, those derived from theorizing on the role of anomie are corroborated. The less educated are more anomic (they have more modernity-induced cultural discontents), which not only underlies their distrust in scientific institutions, but also fuels their trust in scientific methods and principles. This explains why this science confidence gap is most pronounced among the less educated.

  6. Profile likelihood-based confidence interval of the intraclass correlation for binary outcome data sampled from clusters.

    PubMed

    Saha, Krishna K

    2012-12-20

    The intraclass correlation in binary outcome data sampled from clusters is an important and versatile measure in many biological and biomedical investigations. Properties of the different estimators of the intraclass correlation based on the parametric, semi-parametric, and nonparametric approaches have been studied extensively, mainly in terms of bias and efficiency [see, for example, Ridout et al., Biometrics 1999, 55:137-148; Paul et al., Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 2003, 73:507-523; and Lee, Statistical Modelling 2004, 4: 113-126], but little attention has been paid to extending these results to the problem of the confidence intervals. In this article, we generalize the results of the four point estimators by constructing asymptotic confidence intervals obtaining closed-form asymptotic and sandwich variance expressions of those four point estimators. It appears from simulation results that the asymptotic confidence intervals based on these four estimators have serious under-coverage. To remedy this, we introduce the Fisher's z-transformation approach on the intraclass correlation coefficient, the profile likelihood approach based on the beta-binomial model, and the hybrid profile variance approach based on the quadratic estimating equation for constructing the confidence intervals of the intraclass correlation for binary outcome data. As assessed by Monte Carlo simulations, these confidence interval approaches show significant improvement in the coverage probabilities. Moreover, the profile likelihood approach performs quite well by providing coverage levels close to nominal over a wide range of parameter combinations. We provide applications to biological data to illustrate the methods.

  7. The effect of high-fidelity simulation on knowledge and confidence in critical care training: An integrative review.

    PubMed

    Boling, Bryan; Hardin-Pierce, Melanie

    2016-01-01

    Patient outcomes in critical care have long been linked to provider experience, but with older providers retiring, it is becoming difficult to maintain a high-level of experience among the ICU staff. Innovative training methods that improve providers' knowledge and confidence may be able to make up for deficiencies in clinical experience. High-fidelity simulation training mimics clinical experience and has been extensively studied in the training of procedural skills, but what is the effect of this type of training on knowledge and confidence? To answer this question, we conducted a review of the literature for studies examining the effect of simulation training on knowledge and confidence among critical care providers. Seventeen papers were identified that met the inclusion criteria and a systematic approach was used to review the papers and synthesize the data. All 17 studies demonstrated an improvement in knowledge and while only 13 of the included studies examined the effect on provider confidence, all found an improvement. We conclude that high-fidelity simulation is a useful tool for improving knowledge and confidence among critical care providers and merits consideration for inclusion in critical care training programs.

  8. Allocating resources and building confidence in public-safety decisions for nuclear waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, K L; Wilder, D G

    1999-05-21

    There are three basic ways to protect the public from the hazards of exposure to radionuclides in nuclear waste: completely contain the waste; limit the rate at which radionuclides are released; and, once radionuclides are released, minimize their impact by reducing concentrations and retarding transport. A geologic repository system that implements all three provides maximum protection for the public: if one element fails, the others serve to protect. This is ''defense-in-depth.'' Demonstrating confidence in the ability of a designed system to provide the requisite safety to the public must rely on a combination of the following aspects relating to engineered and natural system components: 1 Knowledge or understanding of properties and processes 2 Uniformity of (or ability to understand or control) the range of variability associated with each component 3 Experience over time This paper proposes a tool based on defining a ''confidence region'' determined by these three essential aspects of confidence. The defense-in-depth decision-making tool described identifies the portion of the ultimate confidence region that is not well demonstrated and indicates where there is potential for changing a specific component's confidence region, therefore providing in-formation for decisions on emphasis--either for demonstrating performance or for focusing on further studies. The US Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP), wherein Yucca Mountain is being investigated as a potential site for a nuclear waste repository, and the Swedish geologic repository studies are used as examples of this tool. of protective or operating components such that failure of a single component does not by itself lead to system failure. The greater the exposure to loss, the greater the requirements for design margins (the margin of conservatism associated with the fabrication and operation of important components in complex engineering projects) or for compensation by defense-in-depth. Thus

  9. A pilot structured resident orientation curriculum improves the confidence of incoming first-year obstetrics and gynecology residents.

    PubMed

    Hiraoka, Mark; Kamikawa, Ginny; McCartin, Richard; Kaneshiro, Bliss

    2013-11-01

    A prospective, observational study was performed to evaluate a pilot orientation curriculum which involved all 7 incoming obstetrics and gynecology residents in June 2012. The objective of this study was to assess how a structured orientation curriculum, which employs an evaluation of baseline competency, affects the confidence of incoming first-year obstetrics and gynecology residents. The curriculum included didactic lectures, online modules, simulation, and mock clinical scenarios. Pre- and post-course surveys were conducted online via SurveyMonkey™ and were sent to all incoming obstetrics and gynecology residents. All seven incoming obstetrics and gynecology residents completed the orientation curriculum which included evaluations at the end of the orientation to assess baseline competency prior to taking part in clinical care. Confidence levels improved in all 27 elements assessed. Statistically significant improvement in confidence levels occurred in cognitive skills such as obstetric emergency management (2.9 vs 3.9, P< .05) and technical skills such as knot tying (3.9 vs. 4.6, P< .05). Certain teaching skills also demonstrated statistically significant improvements. A structured orientation program which improves resident self-confidence levels and demonstrates baseline competencies in certain clinical areas can be valuable for many residency training programs.

  10. A boost of confidence: The role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex in memory, decision-making, and schemas.

    PubMed

    Hebscher, Melissa; Gilboa, Asaf

    2016-09-01

    The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been implicated in a wide array of functions across multiple domains. In this review, we focus on the vmPFC's involvement in mediating strategic aspects of memory retrieval, memory-related schema functions, and decision-making. We suggest that vmPFC generates a confidence signal that informs decisions and memory-guided behaviour. Confidence is central to these seemingly diverse functions: (1) Strategic retrieval: lesions to the vmPFC impair an early, automatic, and intuitive monitoring process ("feeling of rightness"; FOR) often associated with confabulation (spontaneous reporting of erroneous memories). Critically, confabulators typically demonstrate high levels of confidence in their false memories, suggesting that faulty monitoring following vmPFC damage may lead to indiscriminate confidence signals. (2) Memory schemas: the vmPFC is critically involved in instantiating and maintaining contextually relevant schemas, broadly defined as higher level knowledge structures that encapsulate lower level representational elements. The correspondence between memory retrieval cues and these activated schemas leads to FOR monitoring. Stronger, more elaborate schemas produce stronger FOR and influence confidence in the veracity of memory candidates. (3) Finally, we review evidence on the vmPFC's role in decision-making, extending this role to decision-making during memory retrieval. During non-mnemonic and mnemonic decision-making the vmPFC automatically encodes confidence. Confidence signal in the vmPFC is revealed as a non-linear relationship between a first-order monitoring assessment and second-order action or choice. Attempting to integrate the multiple functions of the vmPFC, we propose a posterior-anterior organizational principle for this region. More posterior vmPFC regions are involved in earlier, automatic, subjective, and contextually sensitive functions, while more anterior regions are involved in controlled actions

  11. A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence.

    PubMed

    van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

    2016-02-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy.

  12. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-10-10

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  13. Leveraging waveform complexity for confident detection of gravitational waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanner, Jonah B.; Littenberg, Tyson B.; Cornish, Neil; Millhouse, Meg; Xhakaj, Enia; Salemi, Francesco; Drago, Marco; Vedovato, Gabriele; Klimenko, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    The recent completion of Advanced LIGO suggests that gravitational waves may soon be directly observed. Past searches for gravitational-wave transients have been impacted by transient noise artifacts, known as glitches, introduced into LIGO data due to instrumental and environmental effects. In this work, we explore how waveform complexity, instead of signal-to-noise ratio, can be used to rank event candidates and distinguish short duration astrophysical signals from glitches. We test this framework using a new hierarchical pipeline that directly compares the Bayesian evidence of explicit signal and glitch models. The hierarchical pipeline is shown to perform well and, in particular, to allow high-confidence detections of a range of waveforms at a realistic signal-to-noise ratio with a two-detector network.

  14. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  15. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects

    PubMed Central

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  16. Gaining Confidence in Navigating Rosetta at Mars Swing-By

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crammn, Ruediger; Budnik, Frank

    2007-01-01

    The Mars swing-by in the early morning of the 25th of February 2007 was one of the most critical events the Rosetta mission has experienced so far on its way to the comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The closest approach took place at a distance of only 250 km from the planet s surface. Missing the optimal target would have translated into considerable fuel cost. In order to achieve confidence in operating through this highly critical mission phase, a navigation analysis exercise was carried out beforehand. This paper describes the purpose and the chosen approach for this preparatory Flight Dynamics activity. It presents and discusses results of the analysis. Emphasis is put on the question of what is needed to simulate a valuable data set representative for operations. The results of the navigation analysis are compared with real data obtained during swing-by operations.

  17. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-08-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date.

  18. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    DOE PAGES

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

  19. Confidence-based ensemble for GBM brain tumor segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Jing; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Okada, Kazunori; Kim, Hyun J.; Pope, Whitney; Goldin, Jonathan; Brown, Matthew

    2011-03-01

    It is a challenging task to automatically segment glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumors on T1w post-contrast isotropic MR images. A semi-automated system using fuzzy connectedness has recently been developed for computing the tumor volume that reduces the cost of manual annotation. In this study, we propose a an ensemble method that combines multiple segmentation results into a final ensemble one. The method is evaluated on a dataset of 20 cases from a multi-center pharmaceutical drug trial and compared to the fuzzy connectedness method. Three individual methods were used in the framework: fuzzy connectedness, GrowCut, and voxel classification. The combination method is a confidence map averaging (CMA) method. The CMA method shows an improved ROC curve compared to the fuzzy connectedness method (p < 0.001). The CMA ensemble result is more robust compared to the three individual methods.

  20. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time, it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.