Science.gov

Sample records for 95-percent confidence level

  1. IET. Aerial view of project, 95 percent complete. Camera facing ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    IET. Aerial view of project, 95 percent complete. Camera facing east. Left to right: stack, duct, mobile test cell building (TAN-624), four-rail track, dolly. Retaining wall between mobile test building and shielded control building (TAN-620) just beyond. North of control building are tank building (TAN-627) and fuel-transfer pump building (TAN-625). Guard house at upper right along exclusion fence. Construction vehicles and temporary warehouse in view near guard house. Date: June 6, 1955. INEEL negative no. 55-1462 - Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Test Area North, Scoville, Butte County, ID

  2. Demonstrating disease freedom-combining confidence levels.

    PubMed

    Cannon, R M

    2002-01-22

    Part of the requirements for demonstrating disease freedom usually will be that sufficient testing be done to give a specified confidence of detecting the disease if it were present at a specified level. Often, this requirement is translated into a fixed testing regime that must be followed (an inflexible approach that might not be the most economic or practical solution).A more flexible approach is to specify the capabilities of the various tests that can be used to detect the disease, and let the party hoping to demonstrate disease freedom decide upon the testing regime. The question then arises as to how to combine information that can come from a variety of sources over a period of time to give an overall level of confidence. Two methods are given. The first, an exact method based on multiplying probabilities, would be more appropriate for a survey of an area in which no disease is thought to be present. The second method (more appropriate for a herd-assurance program within an infected area) is a point-based system that takes into account the different sensitivities of the methods used to detect disease and the change in prevalence over time. It allocates points for each test done proportional to the sensitivity of the test and the prevalence at the time of testing. PMID:11849719

  3. Inference by Eye: Pictures of Confidence Intervals and Thinking about Levels of Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cumming, Geoff

    2007-01-01

    A picture of a 95% confidence interval (CI) implicitly contains pictures of CIs of all other levels of confidence, and information about the "p"-value for testing a null hypothesis. This article discusses pictures, taken from interactive software, that suggest several ways to think about the level of confidence of a CI, "p"-values, and what…

  4. Prospective Teachers' Problem Solving Skills and Self-Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gursen Otacioglu, Sena

    2008-01-01

    The basic objective of the research is to determine whether the education that prospective teachers in different fields receive is related to their levels of problem solving skills and self-confidence. Within the mentioned framework, the prospective teachers' problem solving and self-confidence levels have been examined under several variables.…

  5. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    PubMed

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p <.001. The items identified were those related to self-confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning. PMID:26599594

  6. 40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart Kk of... - Data Quality Objective and Lower Confidence Limit Approaches for Alternative Capture Efficiency...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... average measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval for the... measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval, expressed as...

  7. 40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart Kk of... - Data Quality Objective and Lower Confidence Limit Approaches for Alternative Capture Efficiency...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... average measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval for the... measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval, expressed as...

  8. 40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart Kk of... - Data Quality Objective and Lower Confidence Limit Approaches for Alternative Capture Efficiency...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... average measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval for the... measured CE value to the endpoints of the 95-percent (two-sided) confidence interval, expressed as...

  9. Simulator effects on cognitive skills and confidence levels.

    PubMed

    Brannan, Jane D; White, Anne; Bezanson, Judy L

    2008-11-01

    Use of a human patient simulator (HPS) as a tool for experiential learning provides a mechanism by which students can participate in clinical decision making, practice skills, and observe outcomes from clinical decisions. The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of two instructional methods to teach specific nursing education content, acute myocardial infarction, on junior-level nursing students' cognitive skills and confidence. The instructional methods included an interactive approach using the HPS method, compared with traditional classroom lecture. Results of this study suggest that use of a teaching strategy involving the HPS method made a positive difference in the nursing students' ability to answer questions on a test of cognitive skills. Confidence levels were not found to be significantly enhanced by use of the HPS method. PMID:19010047

  10. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C

    2007-11-07

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  11. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C; LaFreniere, D; Macintosh, B; Doyon, R

    2008-06-02

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  12. Bootstrap confidence intervals in multi-level simultaneous component analysis.

    PubMed

    Timmerman, Marieke E; Kiers, Henk A L; Smilde, Age K; Ceulemans, Eva; Stouten, Jeroen

    2009-05-01

    Multi-level simultaneous component analysis (MLSCA) was designed for the exploratory analysis of hierarchically ordered data. MLSCA specifies a component model for each level in the data, where appropriate constraints express possible similarities between groups of objects at a certain level, yielding four MLSCA variants. The present paper discusses different bootstrap strategies for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) on the individual parameters. In selecting a proper strategy, the main issues to address are the resampling scheme and the non-uniqueness of the parameters. The resampling scheme depends on which level(s) in the hierarchy are considered random, and which fixed. The degree of non-uniqueness depends on the MLSCA variant, and, in two variants, the extent to which the user exploits the transformational freedom. A comparative simulation study examines the quality of bootstrap CIs of different MLSCA parameters. Generally, the quality of bootstrap CIs appears to be good, provided the sample sizes are sufficient at each level that is considered to be random. The latter implies that if more than a single level is considered random, the total number of observations necessary to obtain reliable inferential information increases dramatically. An empirical example illustrates the use of bootstrap CIs in MLSCA. PMID:18086338

  13. Informing Decisions with Climate Information at Different Levels of Confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R. J.; Kalra, N.

    2012-12-01

    As one important purpose, uncertainty quantification aims to provide information in a way that can usefully inform decisions. But many actual decisions may prove sensitive to information at different levels of confidence, which poses challenges for the uncertainty quantification task. For instance, some salient information may be well-represented by pdf's while other information may only be supported by a scattering of studies. This talk will demonstrate a decision analytic framework that can usefully employ information at different levels of confidence. The framework is based on the idea of identifying thresholds in various combinations of system properties that would suggest switching from one decision to another, and then gathering scientific evidence relevant to those thresholds that can help decision makers adjudicate their choices. The talk will demonstrate this approach with an example analysis that considers how the Port of Los Angeles might consider the potential for extreme sea level rise in its investment plans. This study uses a robust decision making (RDM) analysis to address two questions: (1) under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme sea level rise at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) does current science and other available information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? To answer this second question, we use information expresses as a combination of probabilistic climate forecasts, interval probabilities, and non-probabilistic information. We find that a decision to harden at the next upgrade would merit serious consideration for only one of the four Port facilities considered and hardening costs would have to be 5 to 250 times smaller than current estimates to warrant consideration for the other three facilities. This study also compares and contrasts a robust decision making analysis with a full probabilistic analysis. This

  14. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High-Contrast Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marois, Christian; Lafrenière, David; Macintosh, Bruce; Doyon, René

    2008-01-01

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground- and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analyses have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follow a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil, this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fixed separation from the point-spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and noncoronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level (CL). In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding CL as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckle noise, a detection threshold up to 3 times higher is required to obtain a CL equivalent to that at 5 σ for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested on data acquired by simultaneous spectral differential imaging with TRIDENT and by angular differential imaging with NIRI. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. Finally, a power law is derived to predict the 1 - 3 × 10-7 CL detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise. Based on observations obtained at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), which is operated by the National Research Council of Canada, the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique of France, and the University of

  15. Acceptance and Accuracy of Multiple Choice, Confidence-Level, and Essay Question Formats for Graduate Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swartz, Stephen M.

    2006-01-01

    The confidence level (information-referenced testing; IRT) design is an attempt to improve upon the multiple choice format by allowing students to express a level of confidence in the answers they choose. In this study, the author evaluated student perceptions of the ease of use and accuracy of and general preference for traditional multiple…

  16. Measuring Confidence Levels of Male and Female Students in Open Access Enabling Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atherton, Mirella

    2015-01-01

    The study of confidence was undertaken at the University of Newcastle with students selecting science courses at two campuses. The students were enrolled in open access programs and aimed to gain access to undergraduate studies in various disciplines at University. The "third person effect" was used to measure the confidence levels of…

  17. Mathematics Confidence, Grade-Level Choice, Gender, and Age in Preservice Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pearson, Lesley Knoth

    2012-01-01

    Problem: The purpose of the study was to determine whether teachers' mathematics confidence influenced their choice of grade level. The study also examined whether there was a difference in teachers' mathematics confidence based on their age or gender. Method: A 6-item Mathematics Survey was distributed to 83 single-and multiple-subject…

  18. Effect of CALIPSO Cloud Aerosol Discrimination (CAD) Confidence Levels on Observations of Aerosol Properties near Clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, Weidong; Marshak, Alexander; Varnai, Tamas; Liu, Zhaoyan

    2012-01-01

    CALIPSO aerosol backscatter enhancement in the transition zone between clouds and clear sky areas is revisited with particular attention to effects of data selection based on the confidence level of cloud-aerosol discrimination (CAD). The results show that backscatter behavior in the transition zone strongly depends on the CAD confidence level. Higher confidence level data has a flatter backscatter far away from clouds and a much sharper increase near clouds (within 4 km), thus a smaller transition zone. For high confidence level data it is shown that the overall backscatter enhancement is more pronounced for small clear-air segments and horizontally larger clouds. The results suggest that data selection based on CAD reduces the possible effects of cloud contamination when studying aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds.

  19. An Examination of Teacher's Occupational Burnout Levels in Terms of Organizational Confidence and Some Other Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caglar, Caglar

    2011-01-01

    An effort is made in this research to determine the correlations between primary school teachers' levels of confidence in their organization and their burnout levels and other variables. The research population is composed of teachers teaching in the primary schools located in the city center of Adiyaman in 2009-2010 academic year whereas the…

  20. Confidence level in performing clinical procedures among medical officers in nonspecialist government hospitals in Penang, Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Othman, Mohamad Sabri; Merican, Hassan; Lee, Yew Fong; Ch'ng, Kean Siang; Thurairatnam, Dharminy

    2015-03-01

    A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted at 3 government hospitals over 6 months to evaluate the confidence level of medical officers (MOs) to perform clinical procedure in nonspecialist government hospitals in Penang. An anonymous self-administered questionnaire in English was designed based on the elective and emergency procedures stated in the houseman training logbook. The questionnaire was distributed to the MOs from Penang State Health Department through the respective hospital directors and returned to Penang State Health Department on completion. The results showed that there was statistically significant difference between those who had undergone 12 months and 24 months as houseman in performing both elective and emergency procedures. MOs who had spent 24 months as housemen expressed higher confidence level than those who had only 12 months of experience. We also found that the confidence level was statistically and significantly influenced by visiting specialist and working together with cooperative experienced paramedics. PMID:23695541

  1. Tables for Trials and Failures with PD for Designated Confidence Level

    SciTech Connect

    Leach, Janice

    2014-02-01

    Two attachments are provided for performance testing of sensors and other Physical Protection System (PPS) components. The first attachment is a table of Trials and Failures, giving Probability of Detection (PD) for a designated confidence level and sorted by trials. The second attachment contains the same data, sorted by failures.

  2. The Impact of an Experiential/Feedback-Oriented Curricula on Levels of Confidence of Dental Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yanoff, Jay M.; And Others

    The impact of an experiential/feedback oriented curricula on levels of confidence of dental students was examined. The study was conducted in the TEAM (Training in Expanded Auxiliary Management) program at the University of Pennsylvania School of Dental Medicine. The subjects were 31 senior dental students (fourth year) who had completed a…

  3. Motor onset and diagnosis in Huntington disease using the diagnostic confidence level.

    PubMed

    Liu, Dawei; Long, Jeffrey D; Zhang, Ying; Raymond, Lynn A; Marder, Karen; Rosser, Anne; McCusker, Elizabeth A; Mills, James A; Paulsen, Jane S

    2015-12-01

    Huntington disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by motor dysfunction, cognitive deterioration, and psychiatric symptoms, with progressive motor impairments being a prominent feature. The primary objectives of this study are to delineate the disease course of motor function in HD, to provide estimates of the onset of motor impairments and motor diagnosis, and to examine the effects of genetic and demographic variables on the progression of motor impairments. Data from an international multisite, longitudinal observational study of 905 prodromal HD participants with cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) repeats of at least 36 and with at least two visits during the followup period from 2001 to 2012 was examined for changes in the diagnostic confidence level from the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale. HD progression from unimpaired to impaired motor function, as well as the progression from motor impairment to diagnosis, was associated with the linear effect of age and CAG repeat length. Specifically, for every 1-year increase in age, the risk of transition in diagnostic confidence level increased by 11% (95% CI 7-15%) and for one repeat length increase in CAG, the risk of transition in diagnostic confidence level increased by 47% (95% CI 27-69%). Findings show that CAG repeat length and age increased the likelihood of the first onset of motor impairment as well as the age at diagnosis. Results suggest that more accurate estimates of HD onset age can be obtained by incorporating the current status of diagnostic confidence level into predictive models. PMID:26410751

  4. A simple Bayesian approach to quantifying confidence level of adverse event incidence proportion in small samples.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fang

    2016-01-01

    In both clinical development and post-marketing of a new therapy or a new treatment, incidence of an adverse event (AE) is always a concern. When sample sizes are small, large sample-based inferential approaches on an AE incidence proportion in a certain time period no longer apply. In this brief discussion, we introduce a simple Bayesian framework to quantify, in small sample studies and the rare AE case, (1) the confidence level that the incidence proportion of a particular AE p is over or below a threshold, (2) the lower or upper bounds on p with a certain level of confidence, and (3) the minimum required number of patients with an AE before we can be certain that p surpasses a specific threshold, or the maximum allowable number of patients with an AE after which we can no longer be certain that p is below a certain threshold, given a certain confidence level. The method is easy to understand and implement; the interpretation of the results is intuitive. This article also demonstrates the usefulness of simple Bayesian concepts when it comes to answering practical questions. PMID:26098967

  5. Weighted least-squares algorithm for phase unwrapping based on confidence level in frequency domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shaohua; Yu, Jie; Yang, Cankun; Jiao, Shuai; Fan, Jun; Wan, Yanyan

    2015-12-01

    Phase unwrapping is a key step in InSAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry) processing, and its result may directly affect the accuracy of DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and ground deformation. However, the decoherence phenomenon such as shadows and layover, in the area of severe land subsidence where the terrain is steep and the slope changes greatly, will cause error transmission in the differential wrapped phase information, leading to inaccurate unwrapping phase. In order to eliminate the effect of the noise and reduce the effect of less sampling which caused by topographical factors, a weighted least-squares method based on confidence level in frequency domain is used in this study. This method considered to express the terrain slope in the interferogram as the partial phase frequency in range and azimuth direction, then integrated them into the confidence level. The parameter was used as the constraints of the nonlinear least squares phase unwrapping algorithm, to smooth the un-requirements unwrapped phase gradient and improve the accuracy of phase unwrapping. Finally, comparing with interferometric data of the Beijing subsidence area obtained from TerraSAR verifies that the algorithm has higher accuracy and stability than the normal weighted least-square phase unwrapping algorithms, and could consider to terrain factors.

  6. An approach for Web service selection based on confidence level of decision maker.

    PubMed

    Khezrian, Mojtaba; Jahan, Ali; Kadir, Wan Mohd Nasir Wan; Ibrahim, Suhaimi

    2014-01-01

    Web services today are among the most widely used groups for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Service selection is one of the most significant current discussions in SOA, which evaluates discovered services and chooses the best candidate from them. Although a majority of service selection techniques apply Quality of Service (QoS), the behaviour of QoS-based service selection leads to service selection problems in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). In the existing works, the confidence level of decision makers is neglected and does not consider their expertise in assessing Web services. In this paper, we employ the VIKOR (VIšekriterijumskoKOmpromisnoRangiranje) method, which is absent in the literature for service selection, but is well-known in other research. We propose a QoS-based approach that deals with service selection by applying VIKOR with improvement of features. This research determines the weights of criteria based on user preference and accounts for the confidence level of decision makers. The proposed approach is illustrated by an example in order to demonstrate and validate the model. The results of this research may facilitate service consumers to attain a more efficient decision when selecting the appropriate service. PMID:24897426

  7. The Effects of Relevance and Confidence Strategies on Writing Apprehension, Motivational Levels, and Writing Performance on Undergraduate Composition Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spain, Linda Monk

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated writing apprehension, motivational levels, and writing performance of 68 undergraduates enrolled in four freshman composition courses during one semester. Participants in the treatment groups received relevance, confidence, or a combination of relevance and confidence motivational strategies based on Keller's ARCS model. In…

  8. Development of welding emission factors for Cr and Cr(VI) with a confidence level.

    PubMed

    Serageldin, Mohamed; Reeves, David W

    2009-05-01

    Knowledge of the emission rate and release characteristics is necessary for estimating pollutant fate and transport. Because emission measurements at a facility's fence line are generally not readily available, environmental agencies in many countries are using emission factors (EFs) to indicate the quantity of certain pollutants released into the atmosphere from operations such as welding. The amount of fumes and metals generated from a welding process is dependent on many parameters, such as electrode composition, voltage, and current. Because test reports on fume generation provide different levels of detail, a common approach was used to give a test report a quality rating on the basis of several highly subjective criteria; however, weighted average EFs generated in this way are not meant to reflect data precision or to be used for a refined risk analysis. The 95% upper confidence limit (UCL) of the unknown population mean was used in this study to account for the uncertainty in the EF test data. Several parametric UCLs were computed and compared for multiple welding EFs associated with several mild, stainless, and alloy steels. Also, several nonparametric statistical methods, including several bootstrap procedures, were used to compute 95% UCLs. For the nonparametric methods, a distribution for calculating the mean, standard deviation, and other statistical parameters for a dataset does not need to be assumed. There were instances when the sample size was small and instances when EFs for an electrode/process combination were not found. Those two points are addressed in this paper. Finally, this paper is an attempt to deal with the uncertainty in the value of a mean EF for an electrode/process combination that is based on test data from several laboratories. Welding EFs developed with a defined level of confidence may be used as input parameters for risk assessment. PMID:19583162

  9. Effectiveness of a computerized educational module on nurses' knowledge and confidence level related to diabetes.

    PubMed

    Eaton-Spiva, Leeanna; Day, Angela

    2011-01-01

    A descriptive, quasi-experimental design, one-group pretest-posttest method was used to assess perceptions of nurses' knowledge in diabetes care and confidence in teaching diabetes education and to examine the effectiveness of a computer-based learning educational module on nurses' knowledge and confidence related to diabetes. Nurses had a slight improvement in knowledge, skill, and confidence related to diabetes after the computer-based learning intervention, but no statistically significant differences were found. PMID:22108067

  10. Problem Solving Ability Confidence Levels among Student Teachers after a Semester in the Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krug, Kevin; Love, John; Mauzey, Ed; Dixon, Wayne

    2015-01-01

    Subjective confidence for solving classroom problems while instructing students in appropriate academic material is crucial for effective teaching. One way to develop problem solving confidence may result from the semester most education majors spend in the classroom as student teachers. The problem solving inventory (PSI) was given to university…

  11. Adding confidence levels and error bars to mixing layer heights detected by ceilometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Münkel, Christoph; Schäfer, Klaus; Emeis, Stefan

    2011-11-01

    Eye-safe lidar ceilometers are reliable tools for unattended boundary layer structure monitoring around the clock. A single lens optical design enables precise assessment of inversion layers and nocturnal stable layers below 200 m. This design has been chosen for the Vaisala Ceilometers CL31 and CL51. Based on the gradient method, an automatic algorithm for online retrieval of boundary layer depth and additional residual structures has been developed. This robust all weather algorithm is part of the Vaisala boundary layer reporting and analysis tool BL-VIEW. The data averaging intervals used depend on range and signal noise; detection thresholds vary with signal amplitude. All layer heights reported are accomponied by a quality index. In most cases the lowest of these layers is a good measure for the mixing layer height. The continuous knowledge of this atmospheric parameter is supporting the understanding of processes directing air quality. The utility of mixing layer height values for air quality forecast can be further increased by additionally utilizing unaveraged profiles for gradient minima detection. Based on their variation from the result of the BL-VIEW algorithm, confidence levels and error bars can be calculated. Results are presented from campaigns at three different sites. Validation with mixing layer height values derived from co-located radiosoundings confirm the applicability of this novel method.

  12. Relationship between Teachers' ICT Competency, Confidence Level, and Satisfaction toward ICT Training Programmes: A Case Study among Postgraduate Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tasir, Zaidatun; Abour, Khawla Mohammed El Amin; Halim, Noor Dayana Abd; Harun, Jamalludin

    2012-01-01

    There are three main variables that would make the integration of ICT tools as an easy process. Those three variables are teachers' ICT competency, teachers' confidence level in using ICT, and teachers' satisfaction on ICT training programmes. This study investigated the relationships among these three variables and measured the levels of the…

  13. Understanding the Impact of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Training on Participants' Perceived Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nordheim, Shawn M.

    2013-01-01

    This pre-experimental, participatory action research study investigated the impact of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) training on participants' perceived confidence and willingness to initiate CPR. Parents of seventh and eighth grade students were surveyed. Parent participants were asked to watch the American Heart Association's Family and…

  14. The Effect of Performer Gender, Performer Skill Level, and Opponent Gender on Self-Confidence in a Competitive Situation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Evelyn G.

    1990-01-01

    Studies relationships among sex difference, performance expectation, and actual performance in video game competition between female and male subjects. Finds that self-confidence of females is not lower than that of males after competing against a good opponent, indicating that performance expectancies may be more related to skill level than to…

  15. Are effect sizes and confidence levels problems for or solutions to the null hypothesis test?

    PubMed

    Riopelle, A J

    2000-04-01

    Some have proposed that the null hypothesis significance test, as usually conducted using the t test of the difference between means, is an impediment to progress in psychology. To improve its prospects, using Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals and Cohen's standardized effect sizes, d, is recommended. The purpose of these approaches is to enable us to understand what can appropriately be said about the distances between the means and their reliability. Others have written extensively that these recommended strategies are highly interrelated and use identical information. This essay was written to remind us that the t test, based on the sample--not the true--standard deviation, does not apply solely to distance between means. The t test pertains to a much more ambiguous specification: the difference between samples, including sampling variations of the standard deviation. PMID:10843262

  16. Impact of training program on school nurses' confidence levels in managing and supporting students with epilepsy and seizures.

    PubMed

    Austin, Joan K; Kakacek, Jody R M; Carr, Deborah

    2010-12-01

    This article presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of an epilepsy-focused training program on school nurses. The Epilepsy Foundation and the National Association of School Nurses (NASN) created a training program titled "Managing Students with Seizures" to educate school nurses on strategies and resources that they can use to handle emergency situations effectively and to create a safe and supportive school environment for children with epilepsy and seizures. Before and after the training sessions, nurses answered questionnaires that measured their confidence levels in providing care for students with epilepsy and seizures; these questionnaires showed an improvement in nurses' confidence levels across all measures. Analysis was also carried out to identify program components and nurse subgroups associated with statistically significant improvements. An evaluation of satisfaction indicated overall satisfaction with the program. This article presents results from 1,080 complete surveys associated with the training in 2007. PMID:20861414

  17. Trauma Simulation Training Increases Confidence Levels in Prehospital Personnel Performing Life-Saving Interventions in Trauma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Archita D.; Meurer, David A.; Shuster, Jonathan J.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. Limited evidence is available on simulation training of prehospital care providers, specifically the use of tourniquets and needle decompression. This study focused on whether the confidence level of prehospital personnel performing these skills improved through simulation training. Methods. Prehospital personnel from Alachua County Fire Rescue were enrolled in the study over a 2- to 3-week period based on their availability. Two scenarios were presented to them: a motorcycle crash resulting in a leg amputation requiring a tourniquet and an intoxicated patient with a stab wound, who experienced tension pneumothorax requiring needle decompression. Crews were asked to rate their confidence levels before and after exposure to the scenarios. Timing of the simulation interventions was compared with actual scene times to determine applicability of simulation in measuring the efficiency of prehospital personnel. Results. Results were collected from 129 participants. Pre- and postexposure scores increased by a mean of 1.15 (SD 1.32; 95% CI, 0.88–1.42; P < 0.001). Comparison of actual scene times with simulated scene times yielded a 1.39-fold difference (95% CI, 1.25–1.55) for Scenario 1 and 1.59 times longer for Scenario 2 (95% CI, 1.43–1.77). Conclusion. Simulation training improved prehospital care providers' confidence level in performing two life-saving procedures. PMID:27563467

  18. Enhancement of Medical Interns' Levels of Clinical Skills Competence and Self-Confidence Levels via Video iPods: Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Designing and delivering evidence-based medical practice for students requires careful consideration from medical science educators. Social Web (Web 2.0) applications are a part of today’s educational technology milieu; however, empirical research is lacking to support the impact of interactive Web 2.0 mobile applications on medical educational outcomes. Objectives The aim of our study was to determine whether instructional videos provided by iPod regarding female and male urinary catheter insertion would increase students’ confidence levels and enhance skill competencies. Methods We conducted a prospective study with medical trainee intern (TI) participants: 10 control participants (no technological intervention) and 11 intervention participants (video iPods). Before taking part in a skills course, they completed a questionnaire regarding previous exposure to male and female urinary catheterization and their level of confidence in performing the skills. Directly following the questionnaire, medical faculty provided a 40-minute skills demonstration in the Advanced Clinical Skills Centre (ACSC) laboratory at the University of Auckland, New Zealand. All participants practiced the skills following the demonstrations and were immediately evaluated by the same faculty using an assessment rubric. Following the clinical skill evaluation, participants completed a postcourse questionnaire regarding skill confidence levels. At the end of the skills course, the intervention group were provided video iPods and viewed a male and a female urinary catheterization video during the next 3 consecutive months. The control group did not receive educational technology interventions during the 3-month period. At the end of 3 months, participants completed a follow-up questionnaire and a clinical assessment of urinary catheterization skills at the ACSC lab. Results The results indicate a decline in skill competency over time among the control group for both male and female

  19. An Analysis of Training Effects on School Personnel's Knowledge, Attitudes, Comfort, and Confidence Levels toward Educating Students about HIV/AIDS in Pennsylvania

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deutschlander, Sharon

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the training effects on school personnel's knowledge, attitudes, comfort, and confidence levels toward educating students about HIV/AIDS in Pennsylvania. The following four research questions were explored: (a) What is the knowledge, attitudes, confidence, and comfort levels of school personnel regarding…

  20. Critical Care staffs' attitudes, confidence levels and educational needs correlate with countries' donation rates: data from the Donor Action database.

    PubMed

    Roels, Leo; Spaight, Caroline; Smits, Jacqueline; Cohen, Bernard

    2010-08-01

    To investigate on the impact of Critical Care (CC) staffs' attitudes to donation, their acceptance of the brain death (BD) concept, their confidence with donation-related tasks and educational needs on national donation rates. Donor Action (DA) Hospital Attitude Survey (HAS) data were collected from 19 537 CC staff in 11 countries, including personal attitudes to donation, self-reported knowledge, involvement and comfort levels with donation-related tasks and educational requirements. Countries' donation performance was expressed as Procurement Efficiency Index (PEI) (organs procured and transplanted/deaths from eligible causes). National PEI rates correlated well with CC staffs' average support to donation (R = 0.700, P = 0.014), acceptance of the BD concept (R = 0.742, P = 0.007), confidence levels (R = 0.796, P = 0.002) and average educational requirements with donation-related tasks (R = -0.661, P = 0.025). Nurses reported significantly lower positive attitudes (P < 0.0001), acceptance of the BD concept (P < 0.0001), comfort levels (P < 0.0001) and requested more education (P = 0.0025) than medical staff members. DA's HAS is a powerful, standardized tool to assess CC staffs' attitudes and donation-related skills in different environments. Measures to improve countries' donation performance should focus on guidance and education of CC staff so as to ensure that all practitioners have sufficient knowledge and feel comfortable with donation-related issues. PMID:20210934

  1. Exploring the Relationship between K-12 Public School Teachers' Conceptions of Assessment and Their Classroom Assessment Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ludwig, Naomi Wayne

    2014-01-01

    Studies have shown that teachers' beliefs influence their assessment practices. However, the overarching framework of those beliefs in relation to teachers' classroom assessment confidence has been largely unexamined. This research explored teachers' conceptions of assessment and their confidence regarding the implementation of sound classroom…

  2. Effect of Minimum Cell Sizes and Confidence Interval Sizes for Special Education Subgroups on School-Level AYP Determinations. Synthesis Report 61

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simpson, Mary Ann; Gong, Brian; Marion, Scott

    2006-01-01

    This study addresses three questions: First, considering the full group of students and the special education subgroup, what is the likely effect of minimum cell size and confidence interval size on school-level Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) determinations? Second, what effects do the changing minimum cell sizes have on inclusion of special…

  3. Entry-Level Athletic Trainers' Self-Confidence in Clinical Skill Preparedness for Treating Athletic and Emergent Settings Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morin, Gary E.; Misasi, Sharon; Davis, Charles; Hannah, Corey; Rothbard, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    Context: Clinical education is an important component of athletic training education. Concern exists regarding whether clinical experience adequately prepares students to perform professional skills after graduation, particularly with patients in emerging settings. Objective: To determine the confidence levels of athletic training graduates in…

  4. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  5. Predicting Systemic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falke, Stephanie Inez

    2009-01-01

    Using a mixed method approach, this study explored which educational factors predicted systemic confidence in master's level marital and family therapy (MFT) students, and whether or not the impact of these factors was influenced by student beliefs and their perception of their supervisor's beliefs about the value of systemic practice. One hundred…

  6. Deep XMM observations of Draco rule out at the 99 per cent confidence level a dark matter decay origin for the 3.5 keV line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeltema, Tesla; Profumo, Stefano

    2016-06-01

    We searched for an X-ray line at energies around 3.5 keV in deep, ˜1.6 Ms XMM-Newton observations of the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Draco. No line was found in either the Metal Oxide Semi-conductor (MOS) or the p-type/n-type semiconductor (PN) detectors. The data in this energy range are completely consistent with a single, unfolded power-law modelling the particle background, which dominates at these energies, plus instrumental lines; the addition of a ˜3.5 keV line feature gives no improvement to the fit. The corresponding upper limit on the line flux rules out a dark matter decay origin for the 3.5 keV line found in observations of clusters of galaxies and in the Galactic Centre at greater than 99 per cent confidence level.

  7. Measuring Vaccine Confidence: Introducing a Global Vaccine Confidence Index

    PubMed Central

    Larson, Heidi J; Schulz, William S; Tucker, Joseph D; Smith, David M D

    2015-01-01

    Background. Public confidence in vaccination is vital to the success of immunisation programmes worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of vaccine confidence is therefore of great importance for global public health. Few published studies permit global comparisons of vaccination sentiments and behaviours against a common metric. This article presents the findings of a multi-country survey of confidence in vaccines and immunisation programmes in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom (UK) – these being the first results of a larger project to map vaccine confidence globally. Methods. Data were collected from a sample of the general population and from those with children under 5 years old against a core set of confidence questions. All surveys were conducted in the relevant local-language in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the UK. We examine confidence in immunisation programmes as compared to confidence in other government health services, the relationships between confidence in the system and levels of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for vaccine hesitancy, ultimate vaccination decisions, and their variation based on country contexts and demographic factors. Results. The numbers of respondents by country were: Georgia (n=1000); India (n=1259); Pakistan (n=2609); UK (n=2055); Nigerian households (n=12554); and Nigerian health providers (n=1272). The UK respondents with children under five years of age were more likely to hesitate to vaccinate, compared to other countries. Confidence in immunisation programmes was more closely associated with confidence in the broader health system in the UK (Spearman’s ρ=0.5990), compared to Nigeria (ρ=0.5477), Pakistan (ρ=0.4491), and India (ρ=0.4240), all of which ranked confidence in immunisation programmes higher than confidence in the broader health system. Georgia had the highest rate of vaccine refusals (6 %) among those who reported initial hesitation. In all other countries surveyed most

  8. Confidant Relations in Italy.

    PubMed

    Isaacs, Jenny; Soglian, Francesca; Hoffman, Edward

    2015-02-01

    Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91%) reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture. PMID:27247641

  9. Confidant Relations in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Isaacs, Jenny; Soglian, Francesca; Hoffman, Edward

    2015-01-01

    Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91%) reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture. PMID:27247641

  10. Optimally combined confidence limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janot, P.; Le Diberder, F.

    1998-02-01

    An analytical and optimal procedure to combine statistically independent sets of confidence levels on a quantity is presented. This procedure does not impose any constraint on the methods followed by each analysis to derive its own limit. It incorporates the a priori statistical power of each of the analyses to be combined, in order to optimize the overall sensitivity. It can, in particular, be used to combine the mass limits obtained by several analyses searching for the Higgs boson in different decay channels, with different selection efficiencies, mass resolution and expected background. It can also be used to combine the mass limits obtained by several experiments (e.g. ALEPH, DELPHI, L3 and OPAL, at LEP 2) independently of the method followed by each of these experiments to derive their own limit. A method to derive the limit set by one analysis is also presented, along with an unbiased prescription to optimize the expected mass limit in the no-signal-hypothesis.

  11. Confidence in Science: The Gender Gap.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Mary Frank; Firebaugh, Glenn

    1992-01-01

    Analyses relationship between gender and confidence in science. Argues that, as women form larger part of labor force and tax base, scientific fields must seek to increase women's generally lower levels of confidence in science. Reports no change in trend of confidence in science between 1973 and 1989, but shows significant and widening gap…

  12. Mapping Self-Confidence Levels of Nurses in Their Provision of Nursing Care to Others with Alcohol and Tobacco Dependence, Using Rasch Scaling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackman, Ian; de Crespigny, Charlotte; Parker, Steve

    2006-01-01

    This study seeks to identify factors that influence the perceived complexity of providing nursing care to others (who are dependent on alcohol and tobacco) and the confidence of undergraduate student nurses to carry out this care. The research project is designed to explore whether there is a difference between the perceived complexities of 57…

  13. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  14. Understanding Academic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2006-01-01

    This paper draws on the psychological theories of self-efficacy and the self-concept to understand students' self-confidence in academic study in higher education as measured by the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC). In doing this, expectancy-value theory and self-efficacy theory are considered and contrasted with self-concept and…

  15. Preservice Educators' Confidence in Addressing Sexuality Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyatt, Tammy Jordan

    2009-01-01

    This study examined 328 preservice educators' level of confidence in addressing four sexuality education domains and 21 sexuality education topics. Significant differences in confidence levels across the four domains were found for gender, academic major, sexuality education philosophy, and sexuality education knowledge. Preservice educators…

  16. A proposal of the diagnosis-dynamic characteristic (DDC) model describing the relation between search time and confidence levels for a dichotomous judgment, and its application to ROC curve generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumoto, Toru; Fukuda, Nobuo; Furukawa, Akira; Suwa, Koji; Wada, Shinichi; Matsumoto, Mitsuomi; Sone, Shusuke

    2006-03-01

    When physicians inspect an image, they make up a certain degree of confidence that the image are abnormal; p(t), or normal; n(t)[n(t)=1-p(t)]. After infinite time of the inspection, they reach the equilibrium levels of the confidence of p*=p(∞) and n*=n(∞). There are psychological conflicts between the decisions of normal and abnormal. We assume that the decision of "normal" is distracted by the decision of "abnormal" by a factor of k(1 + ap), and in an inverse direction by a factor of k(1 + bn), where k ( > 0) is a parameter that relates with image quality and skill of the physicians, and a and b are unknown constants. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies the equation, k(1 + ap*)n* = k(1 + bn*)p*. Here we define a parameter C, which is 2p*/[p*(1 - p*)]. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies t that changes in the confidence level with the time (dp/dt) is proportional to [k(1+ap)n - k(1+bn)p], i.e. k[-cp2 + (c - 2)p + 1]. Solving the differential equation, we derived the equation; t(p) and p(t) depending with the parameters; k, c, S. S (0-1) is the value arbitrary selected and related with probability of "abnormal" before the image inspection (S = p(0)). Image reading studies were executed for CT images. ROC curves were generated both by the traditional 4-step score-based method and by the confidence level; p estimated from the equation t(p) of the DDC model using observed judgment time. It was concluded that ROC curves could be generated by measuring time for dichotomous judgment without the subjective scores of diagnostic confidence and applying the DDC model.

  17. Neurophysiology of perceived confidence.

    PubMed

    Graziano, Martin; Parra, Lucas C; Sigman, Mariano

    2010-01-01

    In a partial report paradigm, subjects observe during a brief presentation a cluttered field and after some time - typically ranging from 100 ms to a second - are asked to report a subset of the presented elements. A vast buffer of information is transiently available to be broadcasted which, if not retrieved in time, fades rapidly without reaching consciousness. An interesting feature of this experiment is that objective performance and subjective confidence is decoupled. This converts this paradigm in an ideal vehicle to understand the brain dynamics of the construction of confidence. Here we report a high-density EEG experiment in which we infer elements of the EEG response which are indicative of subjective confidence. We find that an early response during encoding partially correlates with perceived confidence. However, the bulk of the weight of subjective confidence is determined during a late, N400-like waveform, during the retrieval stage. This shows that we can find markers of access to internal, subjective states, that are uncoupled from objective response and stimulus properties of the task, and we propose that this can be used with decoding methods of EEG to infer subjective mental states. PMID:21096220

  18. Dynamics of postdecisional processing of confidence.

    PubMed

    Yu, Shuli; Pleskac, Timothy J; Zeigenfuse, Matthew D

    2015-04-01

    Most cognitive theories assume that confidence and choice happen simultaneously and are based on the same information. The 3 studies presented in this article instead show that confidence judgments can arise, at least in part, from a postdecisional evidence accumulation process. As a result of this process, increasing the time between making a choice and confidence judgment improves confidence resolution. This finding contradicts the notion that confidence judgments are biased by decision makers seeking confirmatory evidence. Further analysis reveals that the improved resolution is due to a reduction in confidence in incorrect responses, while confidence in correct responses remains relatively constant. These results are modeled with a sequential sampling process that allows evidence accumulation to continue after a choice is made and maps the amount of accumulated evidence onto a confidence rating. The cognitive modeling analysis reveals that the rate of evidence accumulation following a choice does slow relative to the rate preceding choice. The analysis also shows that the asymmetry between confidence in correct and incorrect choices is compatible with state-dependent decay in the accumulated evidence: Evidence consistent with the current state results in a deceleration of accumulated evidence and consequently evidence appears to have a decreasing impact on observed confidence. In contrast, evidence inconsistent with the current state results in an acceleration of accumulated evidence toward the opposite direction and consequently evidence appears to have an increasing impact on confidence. Taken together, this process-level understanding of confidence suggests a simple strategy for improving confidence accuracy: take a bit more time to make confidence judgments. PMID:25844627

  19. Confidence Calculation with AMV+

    SciTech Connect

    Fossum, A.F.

    1999-02-19

    The iterative advanced mean value algorithm (AMV+), introduced nearly ten years ago, is now widely used as a cost-effective probabilistic structural analysis tool when the use of sampling methods is cost prohibitive (Wu et al., 1990). The need to establish confidence bounds on calculated probabilities arises because of the presence of uncertainties in measured means and variances of input random variables. In this paper an algorithm is proposed that makes use of the AMV+ procedure and analytically derived probability sensitivities to determine confidence bounds on calculated probabilities.

  20. SystemConfidence

    2012-09-25

    SystemConfidence is a benchmark developed at ORNL which can measure statistical variation in which the user can plot. The portions of the code which manage the collection of the histograms and computing statistics on the histograms were designed with the intent that we could use these functions in other codes.

  1. Computing Graphical Confidence Bounds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mezzacappa, M. A.

    1983-01-01

    Approximation for graphical confidence bounds is simple enough to run on programmable calculator. Approximation is used in lieu of numerical tables not always available, and exact calculations, which often require rather sizable computer resources. Approximation verified for collection of up to 50 data points. Method used to analyze tile-strength data on Space Shuttle thermal-protection system.

  2. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an…

  3. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  4. Addressing the vaccine confidence gap.

    PubMed

    Larson, Heidi J; Cooper, Louis Z; Eskola, Juhani; Katz, Samuel L; Ratzan, Scott

    2011-08-01

    Vaccines--often lauded as one of the greatest public health interventions--are losing public confidence. Some vaccine experts have referred to this decline in confidence as a crisis. We discuss some of the characteristics of the changing global environment that are contributing to increased public questioning of vaccines, and outline some of the specific determinants of public trust. Public decision making related to vaccine acceptance is neither driven by scientific nor economic evidence alone, but is also driven by a mix of psychological, sociocultural, and political factors, all of which need to be understood and taken into account by policy and other decision makers. Public trust in vaccines is highly variable and building trust depends on understanding perceptions of vaccines and vaccine risks, historical experiences, religious or political affiliations, and socioeconomic status. Although provision of accurate, scientifically based evidence on the risk-benefit ratios of vaccines is crucial, it is not enough to redress the gap between current levels of public confidence in vaccines and levels of trust needed to ensure adequate and sustained vaccine coverage. We call for more research not just on individual determinants of public trust, but on what mix of factors are most likely to sustain public trust. The vaccine community demands rigorous evidence on vaccine efficacy and safety and technical and operational feasibility when introducing a new vaccine, but has been negligent in demanding equally rigorous research to understand the psychological, social, and political factors that affect public trust in vaccines. PMID:21664679

  5. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  6. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  7. A Quantitative Assessment of Gender and Career Decision-Making Confidence Levels of High School Seniors in a School-to-Work Program Using the Career Decision Scale.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fawcett, Mary; Maycock, George

    This study measured differences in the levels of career indecision for urban male and female high school seniors who had varying levels of experience in vocational programs or job related activities through school-to-work (STW) vocational programs. The 113 students, of whom 44% were male and 56% were female, completed the Career Decision Scale…

  8. Self-Confidence of Selected Indian Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, James C.

    1974-01-01

    The article discusses a study that determined if selected primary and junior high Indian students' self-confidence was related to grade level and to the number of years enrolled in a particular Bureau of Indian Affairs boarding school. (KM)

  9. Stress perceptions of soldiers participating in training at the Chemical Defense Training Facility: The mediating effects of motivation, experience, and confidence level. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Fatkin, L.T.; Hudgens, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    An investigation was conducted by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) and funded by the Physiological and Psychological Effects of the Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical (NBC) Environment and Sustained Operations on Systems in Combat (P2NBC2) program to assess the psychological reactions of soldiers in mission-oriented protective posture (MOPP) IV participating in training in a simulated chemical agent environment and in a toxic agent environment. A total of 155 soldiers who participated in the basic course (junior enlisted) and the advanced courses (officer and noncommissioned officer NCO groups) as part of their military occupational specialty (MOS) training volunteered for the study. The junior enlisted group reported significant increases in anxiety during four sessions as they approached the toxic agent portion of the training. The more experienced groups showed a small, but significant increase in anxiety during sessions. Their level of hostility, a component of stress that usually relates to levels of personal frustration, decreased significantly from the time of their initial testing to just before the training began. Since the initial session occurred 1 to 2 weeks before the U.S. Army Chemical Defense Training Facility (CDTF) training, the elevated frustration level may be a reflection of their overall experiences within the intensive chemical defense training program. A significant drop in reported fatigue between the pre- and post-training sessions may indicate a certain level of vigilance gained by participating in the training.

  10. Nebraska Schools 83-84 Immunization Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nebraska State Dept. of Health, Lincoln.

    The data contained in this report represents all of the 297,696 students, K-12, in the state of Nebraska. High levels of immunity are documented among children grades K-6. Some immunization levels of children grades 7-12 are yet below the 95 percent established as a minimum for the prevention of vaccine preventable diseases. Specifically, there…

  11. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with. PMID:23227579

  12. Simulation integration with confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.

    1999-07-01

    Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.

  13. Improved investor confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, J.

    1995-10-01

    Results of a financial ranking survey of power projects show reasonably strong activity when compared to previous surveys. Perhaps the most notable trend is the continued increase in the number of international deals being reported. Nearly 62 percent of the transactions reported were for non-US projects. This increase will likely expand with time as developers and lenders gain confidence in certain regions. For the remainder of 1995 and into 1996 it is likely that financial activity will continue at a steady pace. A number of projects in various markets are poised to reach financial close relatively soon. Developers, investment bankers, and governments are all gaining experience and becoming more comfortable with the process.

  14. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  15. Ellenore Flood's Skills Confidence Inventory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Subich, Linda Mezydlo

    1998-01-01

    Presents background information on the Skills Confidence Inventory (SCI) and the construct it assesses. Interprets the skills confidence and interest profiles of a 29-year-old female high school teacher using the SCI and the Strong Interest Inventory. (MKA)

  16. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  17. Monitoring tigers with confidence.

    PubMed

    Linkie, Matthew; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Smith, Joseph; Rayan, D Mark

    2010-12-01

    With only 5% of the world's wild tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) remaining since the last century, conservationists urgently need to know whether or not the management strategies currently being employed are effectively protecting these tigers. This knowledge is contingent on the ability to reliably monitor tiger populations, or subsets, over space and time. In the this paper, we focus on the 2 seminal methodologies (camera trap and occupancy surveys) that have enabled the monitoring of tiger populations with greater confidence. Specifically, we: (i) describe their statistical theory and application in the field; (ii) discuss issues associated with their survey designs and state variable modeling; and, (iii) discuss their future directions. These methods have had an unprecedented influence on increasing statistical rigor within tiger surveys and, also, surveys of other carnivore species. Nevertheless, only 2 published camera trap studies have gone beyond single baseline assessments and actually monitored population trends. For low density tiger populations (e.g. <1 adult tiger/100 km(2)) obtaining sufficient precision for state variable estimates from camera trapping remains a challenge because of insufficient detection probabilities and/or sample sizes. Occupancy surveys have overcome this problem by redefining the sampling unit (e.g. grid cells and not individual tigers). Current research is focusing on developing spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture models and estimating abundance indices from landscape-scale occupancy surveys, as well as the use of genetic information for identifying and monitoring tigers. The widespread application of these monitoring methods in the field now enables complementary studies on the impact of the different threats to tiger populations and their response to varying management intervention. PMID:21392352

  18. Speaking with Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gousie, Gene

    This paper offers a summary of two aspects of effective speaking in public, whether it be with co-workers, supervisors, friends, or a group of little-known or unknown others. One aspect of public speaking is the level of sincerity, and the other is the level and variety of skills used. The paper first considers sincerity and then, it discusses the…

  19. Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Bruce

    2007-01-01

    The present article provides a primer on (a) effect sizes, (b) confidence intervals, and (c) confidence intervals for effect sizes. Additionally, various admonitions for reformed statistical practice are presented. For example, a very important implication of the realization that there are dozens of effect size statistics is that "authors must…

  20. Confidence limits and their errors

    SciTech Connect

    Rajendran Raja

    2002-03-22

    Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use especially in cases of limited statistics. We introduce the concept of statistical errors of confidence limits and argue that not only should limits be calculated but also their errors in order to represent the results of the analysis to the fullest. We show that comparison of two different limits from two different experiments becomes easier when their errors are also quoted. Use of errors of confidence limits will lead to abatement of the debate on which method is best suited to calculate confidence limits.

  1. Teaching Confidence Intervals Using Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagtvedt, Reidar; Jones, Gregory Todd; Jones, Kari

    2008-01-01

    Confidence intervals are difficult to teach, in part because most students appear to believe they understand how to interpret them intuitively. They rarely do. To help them abandon their misconception and achieve understanding, we have developed a simulation tool that encourages experimentation with multiple confidence intervals derived from the…

  2. A Review of Confidence Intervals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mauk, Anne-Marie Kimbell

    This paper summarizes information leading to the recommendation that statistical significance testing be replaced, or at least accompanied by, the reporting of effect sizes and confidence intervals. It discusses the use of confidence intervals, noting that the recent report of the American Psychological Association Task Force on Statistical…

  3. Confidant Relations of the Aged.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tigges, Leann M.; And Others

    The confidant relationship is a qualitatively distinct dimension of the emotional support system of the aged, yet the composition of the confidant network has been largely neglected in research on aging. Persons (N=940) 60 years of age and older were interviewed about their socio-environmental setting. From the enumeration of their relatives,…

  4. Stocks low, marketers confident

    SciTech Connect

    Mantho, M.

    1997-01-01

    This has been a nerve wracking season as we looked at inadequate inventory spurring prices ever upward. We have watched the American Petroleum Association`s figures on refiner stocks with considerable dismay as they consistantly fell behind year ago inventory. The anxiety extended to how much oil was in marketers` bulkplants and finally in customer tanks. And so, we asked our reporting panel to help us get a fix on how much oil was available for our customers. We asked the questions in early November and so all our figures are for that month. First we asked the capacity of their bulk tanks. And then how many gallons they had on hand November 1, 1996 and the same date of 1995. From these figures, we were able to get estimates of oil inventories. Marketers bulk tanks were 47.5% filled on November 1 which meant that there was on hand at this level, 36 gallons of heating oil for each customer. At that point in the season, customer tanks were 58% filled which translated into 218 gallons.

  5. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  6. Sources of Confidence in School Community Councils

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nygaard, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Three Utah middle level school community councils participated in a qualitative strengths-based process evaluation. Two of the school community councils were identified as exemplary, and the third was just beginning to function. One aspect of the evaluation was the source of school community council members' confidence. Each school had unique…

  7. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  8. Predicting confidence in flashbulb memories.

    PubMed

    Day, Martin V; Ross, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Years after a shocking news event many people confidently report details of their flashbulb memories (e.g., what they were doing). People's confidence is a defining feature of their flashbulb memories, but it is not well understood. We tested a model that predicted confidence in flashbulb memories. In particular we examined whether people's social bond with the target of a news event predicts confidence. At a first session shortly after the death of Michael Jackson participants reported their sense of attachment to Michael Jackson, as well as their flashbulb memories and emotional and other reactions to Jackson's death. At a second session approximately 18 months later they reported their flashbulb memories and confidence in those memories. Results supported our proposed model. A stronger sense of attachment to Jackson was related to reports of more initial surprise, emotion, and rehearsal during the first session. Participants' bond with Michael Jackson predicted their confidence but not the consistency of their flashbulb memories 18 months later. We also examined whether participants' initial forecasts regarding the persistence of their flashbulb memories predicted the durability of their memories. Participants' initial forecasts were more strongly related to participants' subsequent confidence than to the actual consistency of their memories. PMID:23496003

  9. Confidence rating for eutrophication assessments.

    PubMed

    Brockmann, Uwe H; Topcu, Dilek H

    2014-05-15

    Confidence of monitoring data is dependent on their variability and representativeness of sampling in space and time. Whereas variability can be assessed as statistical confidence limits, representative sampling is related to equidistant sampling, considering gradients or changing rates at sampling gaps. By the proposed method both aspects are combined, resulting in balanced results for examples of total nitrogen concentrations in the German Bight/North Sea. For assessing sampling representativeness surface areas, vertical profiles and time periods are divided into regular sections for which individually the representativeness is calculated. The sums correspond to the overall representativeness of sampling in the defined area/time period. Effects of not sampled sections are estimated along parallel rows by reducing their confidence, considering their distances to next sampled sections and the interrupted gradients/changing rates. Confidence rating of time sections is based on maximum differences of sampling rates at regular time steps and related means of concentrations. PMID:24680718

  10. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  11. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    SciTech Connect

    Isaacs, T

    2002-03-27

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  12. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    SciTech Connect

    Isaacs, T

    2002-02-13

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  13. What Confidence Should Boards Give No-Confidence Votes?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacTaggart, Terrence

    2012-01-01

    As boards and presidents are increasingly in the vanguard of change that disturbs the status quo, they may also find themselves the targets of expressions of concern, censure, and no confidence from faculty members who may be averse to a new order of things or to the manner of bringing it about. Since presidents or other chief executives are…

  14. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  15. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    PubMed

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings. PMID:21902013

  16. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  17. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  18. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  19. Self-Confidence in Women's Education: A Feminist Critique.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Fran; Steiger, Arlene

    While acknowledging the research that suggests that women approach their education with lower levels of self-confidence than men, this paper raises fundamental questions about how self-confidence has been described and measured during the last two decades. The validity of work on women's attitudes toward academic success is shown to be undercut by…

  20. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  1. Cortical alpha activity predicts the confidence in an impending action

    PubMed Central

    Kubanek, Jan; Hill, N. Jeremy; Snyder, Lawrence H.; Schalk, Gerwin

    2015-01-01

    When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject's confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects' confidence was independent of the reaction time and independent of the sensory input modeled as a decision variable. Furthermore, the effect is not due to a general cognitive state, such as reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of an ensuing button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the commitment to make a hand movement. PMID:26283892

  2. The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data

    SciTech Connect

    SUTHERLAND,HERBERT J.; VEERS,PAUL S.

    1999-11-09

    Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S{sub 1}). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results.

  3. Cultural Influences on Confidence: Country and Gender.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lundeberg, Mary A.; Fox, Paul W.; Brown, Amy C.; Elbedour, Salman

    2000-01-01

    Investigates gender differences in confidence judgments when they were correct and incorrect on exam items with postsecondary students (N=551) in five countries. Large and significant differences were found in overall confidence, confidence when correct, and confidence when wrong, associated primarily with country and culture. In contrast, gender…

  4. The 2009 Retirement Confidence Survey: economy drives confidence to record lows; many looking to work longer.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2009-04-01

    RECORD LOW CONFIDENCE LEVELS: Workers who say they are very confident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement this year hit the lowest level in 2009 (13 percent) since the Retirement Confidence Survey started asking the question in 1993, continuing a two-year decline. Retirees also posted a new low in confidence about having a financially secure retirement, with only 20 percent now saying they are very confident (down from 41 percent in 2007). THE ECONOMY, INFLATION, COST OF LIVING ARE THE BIG CONCERNS: Not surprisingly, workers overall who have lost confidence over the past year about affording a comfortable retirement most often cite the recent economic uncertainty, inflation, and the cost of living as primary factors. In addition, certain negative experiences, such as job loss or a pay cut, loss of retirement savings, or an increase in debt, almost always contribute to loss of confidence among those who experience them. RETIREMENT EXPECTATIONS DELAYED: Workers apparently expect to work longer because of the economic downturn: 28 percent of workers in the 2009 RCS say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. Of those, the vast majority (89 percent) say that they have postponed retirement with the intention of increasing their financial security. Nevertheless, the median (mid-point) worker expects to retire at age 65, with 21 percent planning to push on into their 70s. The median retiree actually retired at age 62, and 47 percent of retirees say they retired sooner than planned. WORKING IN RETIREMENT: More workers are also planning to supplement their income in retirement by working for pay. The percentage of workers planning to work after they retire has increased to 72 percent in 2009 (up from 66 percent in 2007). This compares with 34 percent of retirees who report they actually worked for pay at some time during their retirement. GREATER WORRY ABOUT BASIC AND HEALTH EXPENSES: Workers who say they very confident in

  5. Playing with confidence: the relationship between imagery use and self-confidence and self-efficacy in youth soccer players.

    PubMed

    Munroe-Chandler, Krista; Hall, Craig; Fishburne, Graham

    2008-12-01

    Confidence has been one of the most consistent factors in distinguishing the successful from the unsuccessful athletes (Gould, Weiss, & Weinberg, 1981) and Bandura (1997) proposed that imagery is one way to enhance confidence. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship between imagery use and confidence in soccer (football) players. The participants included 122 male and female soccer athletes ages 11-14 years participating in both house/ recreation (n = 72) and travel/competitive (n = 50) levels. Athletes completed three questionnaires; one measuring the frequency of imagery use, one assessing generalised self-confidence, and one assessing self-efficacy in soccer. A series of regression analyses found that Motivational General-Mastery (MG-M) imagery was a signifant predictor of self-confidence and self-efficacy in both recreational and competitive youth soccer players. More specifically, MG-M imagery accounted for between 40 and 57% of the variance for both self-confidence and self-efficacy with two other functions (MG-A and MS) contributing marginally in the self-confidence regression for recreational athletes. These findings suggest that if a youth athlete, regardless of competitive level, wants to increase his/her self-confidence or self-efficacy through the use of imagery, the MG-M function should be emphasised. PMID:18949659

  6. Automatic integration of confidence in the brain valuation signal.

    PubMed

    Lebreton, Maël; Abitbol, Raphaëlle; Daunizeau, Jean; Pessiglione, Mathias

    2015-08-01

    A key process in decision-making is estimating the value of possible outcomes. Growing evidence suggests that different types of values are automatically encoded in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC). Here we extend this idea by suggesting that any overt judgment is accompanied by a second-order valuation (a confidence estimate), which is also automatically incorporated in VMPFC activity. In accordance with the predictions of our normative model of rating tasks, two behavioral experiments showed that confidence levels were quadratically related to first-order judgments (age, value or probability ratings). The analysis of three functional magnetic resonance imaging data sets using similar rating tasks confirmed that the quadratic extension of first-order ratings (our proxy for confidence) was encoded in VMPFC activity, even if no confidence judgment was required of the participants. Such an automatic aggregation of value and confidence in a same brain region might provide insight into many distortions of judgment and choice. PMID:26192748

  7. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    SciTech Connect

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  8. Confidence bounds on structural reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehta, S. R.; Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

    1993-01-01

    Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

  9. Confidence in ASCI scientific simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Ang, J.A.; Trucano, T.G.; Luginbuhl, D.R.

    1998-06-01

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program calls for the development of high end computing and advanced application simulations as one component of a program to eliminate reliance upon nuclear testing in the US nuclear weapons program. This paper presents results from the ASCI program`s examination of needs for focused validation and verification (V and V). These V and V activities will ensure that 100 TeraOP-scale ASCI simulation code development projects apply the appropriate means to achieve high confidence in the use of simulations for stockpile assessment and certification. The authors begin with an examination of the roles for model development and validation in the traditional scientific method. The traditional view is that the scientific method has two foundations, experimental and theoretical. While the traditional scientific method does not acknowledge the role for computing and simulation, this examination establishes a foundation for the extension of the traditional processes to include verification and scientific software development that results in the notional framework known as Sargent`s Framework. This framework elucidates the relationships between the processes of scientific model development, computational model verification and simulation validation. This paper presents a discussion of the methodologies and practices that the ASCI program will use to establish confidence in large-scale scientific simulations. While the effort for a focused program in V and V is just getting started, the ASCI program has been underway for a couple of years. The authors discuss some V and V activities and preliminary results from the ALEGRA simulation code that is under development for ASCI. The breadth of physical phenomena and the advanced computational algorithms that are employed by ALEGRA make it a subject for V and V that should typify what is required for many ASCI simulations.

  10. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  11. Validation, Uncertainty, and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC)

    SciTech Connect

    Logan, R W; Nitta, C K

    2002-12-06

    This paper represents a summary of our methodology for Verification and Validation and Uncertainty Quantification. A graded scale methodology is presented and related to other concepts in the literature. We describe the critical nature of quantified Verification and Validation with Uncertainty Quantification at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after Verification and Validation has contributed to Uncertainty Quantification at specified confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. Verification and Validation methods for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence and we summarize briefly how this can lead to a Value Engineering methodology for investment strategy.

  12. The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: job insecurity, debt weigh on retirement confidence, savings.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2012-03-01

    Americans' confidence in their ability to retire comfortably is stagnant at historically low levels. Just 14 percent are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement (statistically equivalent to the low of 13 percent measured in 2011 and 2009). Employment insecurity looms large: Forty-two percent identify job uncertainty as the most pressing financial issue facing most Americans today. Worker confidence about having enough money to pay for medical expenses and long-term care expenses in retirement remains well below their confidence levels for paying basic expenses. Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000. Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has grown to 37 percent. Regardless of those retirement age expectations, and consistent with prior RCS findings, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure. Those already in retirement tend to express higher levels of confidence than current workers about several key financial aspects of retirement. Retirees report they are significantly more reliant on Social Security as a major source of their retirement income than current workers expect to be. Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer. More than half of workers (56 percent) report they and/or their spouse have not tried

  13. Sample sizes for confidence limits for reliability.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2010-02-01

    We recently performed an evaluation of the implications of a reduced stockpile of nuclear weapons for surveillance to support estimates of reliability. We found that one technique developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under-estimates the required sample size for systems-level testing. For a large population the discrepancy is not important, but for a small population it is important. We found that another technique used by SNL provides the correct required sample size. For systems-level testing of nuclear weapons, samples are selected without replacement, and the hypergeometric probability distribution applies. Both of the SNL techniques focus on samples without defects from sampling without replacement. We generalized the second SNL technique to cases with defects in the sample. We created a computer program in Mathematica to automate the calculation of confidence for reliability. We also evaluated sampling with replacement where the binomial probability distribution applies.

  14. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    PubMed

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations. PMID:27391683

  15. Item-Specific Gender Differences in Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foote, Chandra J.

    Very little research has been performed which examines gender differences in confidence in highly specified situations. More generalized studies consistently suggest that women are less confident than men (i.e. Sadker and Sadker, 1994). The few studies of gender differences in item-specific conditions indicate that men tend to be more confident in…

  16. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Settlemyer, Bradley W; Hodson, Stephen W; Kuehn, Jeffery A; Poole, Stephen W

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  17. Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamkins, J.

    2015-05-01

    We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

  18. Neural correlates of perceived confidence in a partial report paradigm.

    PubMed

    Graziano, Martín; Parra, Lucas C; Sigman, Mariano

    2015-06-01

    Confidence judgments are often severely distorted: People may feel underconfident when responding correctly or, conversely, overconfident in erred responses. Our aim here was to identify the timing of brain processes that lead to variations in objective performance and subjective judgments of confidence. We capitalized on the Partial Report Paradigm [Sperling, G. The information available in brief visual presentations. Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 74, 1, 1960], which allowed us to separate experimentally the moment of encoding of information from that of its retrieval [Zylberberg, A., Dehaene, S., Mindlin, G. B., & Sigman, M. Neurophysiological bases of exponential sensory decay and top-down memory retrieval: A model. Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience, 3, 2009]. We observed that the level of subjective confidence is indexed by two very specific evoked potentials at latencies of about 400 and 600 msec during the retrieval stage and by a stationary measure of intensity of the alpha band during the encoding period. When factoring out the effect of confidence, objective performance shows a weak effect during the encoding and retrieval periods. These results have relevant implications for theories of decision-making and confidence, suggesting that confidence is not constructed online as evidence is accumulated toward a decision. Instead, confidence attributions are more consistent with a retrospective mechanism that monitors the entire decision process. PMID:25390193

  19. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    PubMed

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

  20. Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

  1. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account

    PubMed Central

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-01-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable “feeling of knowing” or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  2. Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

  3. Early Childhood Practicum Students' Professional Growth in the USA: Areas of Confidence and Concern

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wee, Su-Jeong; Weber, Elsa K.; Park, Soyeon

    2014-01-01

    This research examines specific areas of confidence and concern as expressed by 40 American undergraduate early childhood students on a practicum (supervised field-based internships); if their beliefs changed over the course of their practicum, and if prior teaching experience had an impact on their confidence levels. Areas of confidence and…

  4. Confidence Intervals in Qtl Mapping by Bootstrapping

    PubMed Central

    Visscher, P. M.; Thompson, R.; Haley, C. S.

    1996-01-01

    The determination of empirical confidence intervals for the location of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) was investigated using simulation. Empirical confidence intervals were calculated using a bootstrap resampling method for a backcross population derived from inbred lines. Sample sizes were either 200 or 500 individuals, and the QTL explained 1, 5, or 10% of the phenotypic variance. The method worked well in that the proportion of empirical confidence intervals that contained the simulated QTL was close to expectation. In general, the confidence intervals were slightly conservatively biased. Correlations between the test statistic and the width of the confidence interval were strongly negative, so that the stronger the evidence for a QTL segregating, the smaller the empirical confidence interval for its location. The size of the average confidence interval depended heavily on the population size and the effect of the QTL. Marker spacing had only a small effect on the average empirical confidence interval. The LOD drop-off method to calculate empirical support intervals gave confidence intervals that generally were too small, in particular if confidence intervals were calculated only for samples above a certain significance threshold. The bootstrap method is easy to implement and is useful in the analysis of experimental data. PMID:8725246

  5. Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cousins, R. D.

    The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

  6. Enhancing the Robustness of the Posterior-Based Confidence Measures Using Entropy Information for Speech Recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Yanqing; Zhou, Yu; Zhao, Qingwei; Zhang, Pengyuan; Pan, Fuping; Yan, Yonghong

    In this paper, the robustness of the posterior-based confidence measures is improved by utilizing entropy information, which is calculated for speech-unit-level posteriors using only the best recognition result, without requiring a larger computational load than conventional methods. Using different normalization methods, two posterior-based entropy confidence measures are proposed. Practical details are discussed for two typical levels of hidden Markov model (HMM)-based posterior confidence measures, and both levels are compared in terms of their performances. Experiments show that the entropy information results in significant improvements in the posterior-based confidence measures. The absolute improvements of the out-of-vocabulary (OOV) rejection rate are more than 20% for both the phoneme-level confidence measures and the state-level confidence measures for our embedded test sets, without a significant decline of the in-vocabulary accuracy.

  7. Gender, Family Structure, and Adolescents' Primary Confidants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nomaguchi, Kei M.

    2008-01-01

    Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (N = 4,190), this study examined adolescents' reports of primary confidants. Results showed that nearly 30% of adolescents aged 16-18 nominated mothers as primary confidants, 25% nominated romantic partners, and 20% nominated friends. Nominating romantic partners or friends was related…

  8. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  9. Self-Confidence and Metacognitive Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kleitman, Sabina; Stankov, Lazar

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the nature of the Self-confidence factor. In particular, we study the relationship between this factor and cognitive, metacognitive, and personality measures. Participants (N=296) were administered a battery of seven cognitive tests that assess three constructs: accuracy, speed, and confidence. Participants were also given the…

  10. Developing confidence decreases guessing and increases competency.

    PubMed

    Center, Deborah L; Adams, Timothy M

    2013-09-01

    Validating competency to meet accreditation and safety demands is a major challenge many organizations face. Traditional testing methods may only reflect guessing and may not capture the amount of misinformation nurses are using for critical decision making. Using a confidence-based learning methodology allows learners to correct misinformation and gain confidence and competency. PMID:24015795

  11. Decision Making and Confidence Given Uncertain Advice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Michael D.; Dry, Matthew J.

    2006-01-01

    We study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend…

  12. Confidence Wagering during Mathematics and Science Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Hoan-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal presents the results of a case study involving five 8th grade Taiwanese classes, two mathematics and three science classes. These classes used a new method of testing called confidence wagering. This paper advocates the position that confidence wagering can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during…

  13. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  14. The Role of Confidence in Lifelong Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norman, Marie; Hyland, Terry

    2003-01-01

    Focuses on the concept of confidence stating that it is commonly misunderstood. Presents suggestions for managing and supporting learning after exploring research related to confidence. Offers information on original research on student teachers learning to teach in the post-school sector. (CMK)

  15. An informative confidence metric for ATR.

    SciTech Connect

    Bow, Wallace Johnston Jr.; Richards, John Alfred; Bray, Brian Kenworthy

    2003-03-01

    Automatic or assisted target recognition (ATR) is an important application of synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Most ATR researchers have focused on the core problem of declaration-that is, detection and identification of targets of interest within a SAR image. For ATR declarations to be of maximum value to an image analyst, however, it is essential that each declaration be accompanied by a reliability estimate or confidence metric. Unfortunately, the need for a clear and informative confidence metric for ATR has generally been overlooked or ignored. We propose a framework and methodology for evaluating the confidence in an ATR system's declarations and competing target hypotheses. Our proposed confidence metric is intuitive, informative, and applicable to a broad class of ATRs. We demonstrate that seemingly similar ATRs may differ fundamentally in the ability-or inability-to identify targets with high confidence.

  16. Constructing Confidence Intervals for Qtl Location

    PubMed Central

    Mangin, B.; Goffinet, B.; Rebai, A.

    1994-01-01

    We describe a method for constructing the confidence interval of the QTL location parameter. This method is developed in the local asymptotic framework, leading to a linear model at each position of the putative QTL. The idea is to construct a likelihood ratio test, using statistics whose asymptotic distribution does not depend on the nuisance parameters and in particular on the effect of the QTL. We show theoretical properties of the confidence interval built with this test, and compare it with the classical confidence interval using simulations. We show in particular, that our confidence interval has the correct probability of containing the true map location of the QTL, for almost all QTLs, whereas the classical confidence interval can be very biased for QTLs having small effect. PMID:7896108

  17. Analyzing Student Confidence in Classroom Voting with Multiple Choice Questions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Ann; Storm, Christopher; VonEpps, Lahna

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present results of a recent study in which students voted on multiple choice questions in mathematics courses of varying levels. Students used clickers to select the best answer among the choices given; in addition, they were also asked whether they were confident in their answer. In this paper we analyze data…

  18. Confidence and Preparedness to Teach: Conflicting Perspectives from Multiple Stakeholders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Pamala J.; Cowan, Kay W.

    2013-01-01

    This article, "Confidence and Preparedness to Teach" is a quantitative study that examines the level of preparedness for the classroom of fifty-seven student teachers. The student teachers, their cooperating teachers, and the professor-in-residence who monitored the placement completed a twenty-four item survey that rated the prospective…

  19. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  20. State FFA Officers' Confidence and Trustworthiness of Biotechnology Information Sources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wingenbach, Gary J.; Rutherford, Tracy A.

    2007-01-01

    Are state FFA officers' awareness levels of agricultural topics reported in mass media superior to those who do not serve in leadership roles? The purpose of this study was to determine elected state FFA officers' awareness of biotechnology, and their confidence and trust of biotechnology information sources. Descriptive survey methods were used…

  1. Academic Behavioural Confidence: A Comparison of Medical and Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanders, Lalage; Sander, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Introduction. Sander, Stevenson, King and Coates (2000) identified differences between medical students in a conventional university and psychology students in a post-1992 university in their responses to different styles of learning and teaching. Method. It had been hypothesised that differing levels of confidence explained why the former felt…

  2. Confidence in Teaching Mathematics among Malaysian Pre-Service Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yunus, Aida Suraya Md.; Hamzah, Ramlah; Ismail, Habsah; Husain, Sharifah Kartini Said; Ismail, Mat Rofa

    2006-01-01

    This study focuses on the confidence level of mathematics education students in teaching school mathematics. Respondents were 165 final year students from four Malaysian universities. It was found that the respondents showed a strong foundation in mathematics upon entrance to the university. In spite of their strong background in school…

  3. Modal confidence factor in vibration testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibrahim, S. R.

    1978-01-01

    The theory and applications of a time domain modal test technique are presented. The method uses free decay of random responses from a structure under test to identify its modal characteristics namely, natural frequencies, damping factors, and mode shapes. The method can identify multimodal (highly coupled) systems and modes that have very small contribution in the responses. A method is presented to decrease the effects of high levels of noise in the data and thus improve the accuracy of identified parameters. This is accomplished using an oversized mathematical model. The concept of modal confidence factor (MCF) is developed. The MCF is a number calculated for every identified mode for a structure under test. The MCF varies from 0.000 for a distorted, nonlinear, or noise mode to 100.0 for a pure structural mode. The theory of the MCF is based on the correlation that exits between the modal deflection at a certain station and the modal deflection at the same station delayed in time. The theory and application of the MCF is illustrated by two experiments. The first experiment deals with simulated responses from a two degree of freedom system with 20 percent, 40 percent, and 100 percent noise added. The second experiment was run on a generalized payload model. The free decay response from the payload model contained about 22 percent noise.

  4. Calibrated Peer Review Essays Increase Confidence in Self-assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Likkel, Lauren

    2006-12-01

    We studied the effect of the web-based tool “Calibrated Peer Review” ™ on student confidence in their ability to recognize the quality of their own work. CPR can be used in large enrollment classes to allow a controlled peer review of moderate length student essays. We expected that teaching students how to grade an essay and having them grade their own work would increase confidence in assessing the quality of their own essays, and the results support this. Three introductory astronomy classes participated in this study during 2005 at the University of Wisconsin Eau Claire, a four year university. Four essays were assigned in both the experimental class (104 students) and the control classes (34 students). In the comparison classes, the student was given a score on the essay and perhaps a few written comments. The experimental group used the CPR tool, in which they are taught how to evaluate the essay, evaluate assignments written by peers, and evaluate their own essay. Three survey questions were used to characterize the change in confidence level in ability to assess their own work. The survey results from a survey at the end of the semester were compared to results from the same survey administered at the beginning of the semester. A measurable effect on the average confidence level of the experimental class was found. By the final survey, significantly more of the CPR students had changed to a more positive statement in indicating their confidence in evaluating their own written work. There was no effect seen on the classes that wrote essays but did not use the CPR system, showing that this result is due to using the CPR system for the essays, not just writing essays or becoming more confident during the course of the semester.

  5. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    PubMed Central

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  6. Parenting Confidence and Needs for Parents of Newborns in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Ching-Pyng; Chuang, Hsiao-Ling; Lee, Shu-Hsin; Liao, Wen-Chun; Chang, Li-Yu; Lee, Meng-Chih

    2012-01-01

    Objective Parenting confidence with regards to caring for their infants is crucial for the healthy adaptation to parenthood and the development of positive parent-infant relationships. The postpartum period is a tremendous transitional time for parents, so their unique needs should be considered. This study explored parenting confidence and needs in parents when their newborns are discharged from hospital, and explored the best predictors of parenting confidence and needs. Methods A cross-sectional design with a questionnaire survey was used in this study. The questionnaire included three parts: Demographic, Parenting Needs and Parenting Confidence Questionnaire. We survey a convenience sample of 96 parents from a postnatal ward and a neonatal intermediate care unit of the medical central hospital in Taichung, Taiwan. Findings The mean age of the subjects was 32 years and 67.7% of the subjects’ education level was college or above. Approximately one half of the subjects was multiparous, vaginal delivery and had planned pregnancy. The mean gestational age and birth weight of the newborns was 37.7 weeks and 2902 g, respectively. Parents who had a planned pregnancy (t=2.1, P=0.04) or preterm infants (t=2.0, P=0.046) and those whose infants were delivered by cesarean section (t=2.2, P=0.03) had higher parenting needs. In addition, parents of low birth weight infants had higher parenting needs (r=-0.23, P=0.02). Regarding parenting confidence, multipara parents perceived higher confidence than primipara parents (t=2.9, P=0.005). Needs in psychosocial support were significantly correlated with parenting confidence (r=0.21, P<0.05). The stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that parity and needs in psychosocial support predict parenting confidence of 13.8% variance. Conclusion The findings of this study help care providers to identify parents with low parenting confidence at an early postpartum stage. Health care teams should provide appropriate psychosocial

  7. Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayhurst, Kelly J.

    1991-01-01

    Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

  8. Confidence regions of planar cardiac vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubin, S.; Herr, A.; Hunt, P.

    1980-01-01

    A method for plotting the confidence regions of vectorial data obtained in electrocardiology is presented. The 90%, 95% and 99% confidence regions of cardiac vectors represented in a plane are obtained in the form of an ellipse centered at coordinates corresponding to the means of a sample selected at random from a bivariate normal distribution. An example of such a plot for the frontal plane QRS mean electrical axis for 80 horses is also presented.

  9. "But I Thought I Knew That!" Student Confidence Judgments on Course Examinations in Introductory Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nevid, Jeffrey S.; Cheney, Brianna; Thompson, Clarissa

    2015-01-01

    Students in an introductory psychology class rated their level of confidence in their answers to exam questions on four multiple-choice exams through the course of a semester. Correlations between confidence judgments and accuracy (correct vs. incorrect) at the individual item level showed modest but significant relationships for item sets scaled…

  10. Confiding About Problems in Marriage and Long-Term Committed Relationships: A National Study.

    PubMed

    Lind Seal, Kirsten; Doherty, William J; Harris, Steven M

    2016-07-01

    This study examined confiding patterns in a national sample of 1000 U.S. adults aged 25-70 to inform the development of an educational program for confidants, called Marital First Responders. Results showed that 73% of U.S. adults have been a confidant to someone with a problem in a marriage or long-term committed relationship. The most common confiding relationship was between friends, followed by siblings. Confidants reported a wide range of problems brought to them, ranging from everyday complaints to serious issues such as infidelity and divorce. Confiders identified the most and least helpful responses. Findings suggest that naturally occurring confiding relationships have considerable potential to be the first level of help for troubled couple relationships. PMID:26201911

  11. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task

    PubMed Central

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence. PMID:27242566

  12. The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.

    PubMed

    Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony

    2013-12-01

    The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand. PMID:24334324

  13. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task.

    PubMed

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence. PMID:27242566

  14. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  15. The Joint Confidence Level Paradox: A History of Denial

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butts, Glenn; Linton, Kent

    2009-01-01

    This paper is intended to provide a reliable methodology for those tasked with generating price tags on construction (C0F) and research and development (R&D) activities in the NASA performance world. This document consists of a collection of cost-related engineering detail and project fulfillment information from early agency days to the present. Accurate historical detail is the first place to start when determining improved methodologies for future cost and schedule estimating. This paper contains a beneficial proposed cost estimating method for arriving at more reliable numbers for future submits. When comparing current cost and schedule methods with earlier cost and schedule approaches, it became apparent that NASA's organizational performance paradigm has morphed. Mission fulfillment speed has slowed and cost calculating factors have increased in 21st Century space exploration.

  16. Confidence in biopreparedness authorities among Finnish conscripts.

    PubMed

    Vartti, Anne-Marie; Aro, Arja R; Jormanainen, Vesa; Henriksson, Markus; Nikkari, Simo

    2010-08-01

    A large sample of Finnish military conscripts of the armored brigade were questioned on the extent to which they trusted the information given biopreparedness authorities (such as the police, military, health care, and public health institutions) and how confident they were in the authority's ability to protect the public during a potential infectious disease outbreak, from either natural or deliberate causes. Participants answered a written questionnaire during their initial health inspection in July 2007. From a total of 1,000 conscripts, 953 male conscripts returned the questionnaire. The mean sum scores for confidence in the information given to biopreparedness authorities and the media on natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range = 0-30) were 20.14 (SD = 7.79) and 20.12 (SD = 7.69), respectively. Mean sum scores for the respondents' confidence in the ability of the biopreparedness authorities to protect the public during natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range 0-25) were 16.04 (SD = 5.78) and 16.17 (SD = 5.89). Most respondents indicated that during a natural outbreak, they would have confidence in information provided by a health care institution such as central hospitals and primary health care centers, whereas in the case of bioterrorism, the respondents indicated that they would have confidence in the defense forces and central hospitals. PMID:20731266

  17. Chiropractic Interns' Perceptions of Stress and Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Spegman, Adele Mattinat; Herrin, Sean

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Psychological stress has been shown to influence learning and performance among medical and graduate students. Few studies have examined psychological stress in chiropractic students and interns. This preliminary study explored interns' perceptions around stress and confidence at the midpoint of professional training. Methods: This pilot study used a mixed-methods approach, combining rating scales and modified qualitative methods, to explore interns' lived experience. Eighty-eight interns provided ratings of stress and confidence and narrative responses to broad questions. Results: Participants reported multiple sources of stress; stress and confidence ratings were inversely related. Interns described stress as forced priorities, inadequate time, and perceptions of weak performance. Two themes, “convey respect” and “guide real-world learning,” describe faculty actions that minimized stress and promoted confidence. Conclusion: Chiropractic interns experience varying degrees of stress, which is managed with diverse strategies. The development of confidence appears to be influenced by the consistency and manner in which feedback is provided. Although faculty cannot control the amount or sources of stress, awareness of interns' perceptions can strengthen our effectiveness as educators. PMID:18483584

  18. Challenge to Increase Confidence in Geological Evolution Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizuno, T.; Iwatsuki, T.; Saegusa, H.; Kato, T.; Matsuoka, T.; Yasue, K.; Ohyama, T.; Sasao, E.

    2014-12-01

    The geological evolution models (GEMs) as well as site descriptive models (SDMs) are used to integrate investigation results and to support safety assessment. Even more, enhancing confidence in long-term stability of geological environment is required for geological disposal in Japan where is in active tectonic region. The aim of the study is to provide future direction for increasing GEMs confidence based on review of current GEMs. GEMs has been constructed in following three steps; 1) Features, Events and Processes (FEP) analysis, 2) Scenario development and 3) Numerical modeling. Base on the current status, we looked at the issues for developing GEMs with higher level of confidence. As the result, development of techniques and methodologies for; 1) validation of GEMs, 2) handling uncertainty and 3) digitalization/visualization are identified as open issues. To solve these issues, we specified three approaches. First approach is using multiple lines of evidence. Consistency between various study fields will be important information for validation of the GEMs. Second one is revealing the argument behind GEMs. Confidence/uncertainty of GEMs will be able to be confirmed by synthesizing the basic information behind the GEMs because GEMs are built on many evidences, hypothesis and assumptions. In addition, the optional cases will be needed for demonstrating the level of understanding. Third is development of elemental technology, such as the integrated system between numerical simulation and visualization which can take into account large size of model and composite phenomenon. In the future, we will focus on increasing GEMs confidence in keeping with this notion. This study was carried out under a contract with METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) as part of its R&D supporting program for developing geological disposal technology.

  19. Adaptive Confidence Bands for Nonparametric Regression Functions

    PubMed Central

    Cai, T. Tony; Low, Mark; Ma, Zongming

    2014-01-01

    A new formulation for the construction of adaptive confidence bands in non-parametric function estimation problems is proposed. Confidence bands are constructed which have size that adapts to the smoothness of the function while guaranteeing that both the relative excess mass of the function lying outside the band and the measure of the set of points where the function lies outside the band are small. It is shown that the bands adapt over a maximum range of Lipschitz classes. The adaptive confidence band can be easily implemented in standard statistical software with wavelet support. Numerical performance of the procedure is investigated using both simulated and real datasets. The numerical results agree well with the theoretical analysis. The procedure can be easily modified and used for other nonparametric function estimation models. PMID:26269661

  20. Gaining Confidence in Scientific Applications Through Executable Interface Contracts

    SciTech Connect

    Dahlgren, T; Bernholdt, D; McInnes, L C

    2008-06-16

    Interface contract enforcement is intended to help scientists gain confidence in software built from third-party components. Unfamiliar components present increased risk of incorrect or unanticipated usage patterns and unexpected component behavior. Executable interface contracts can address these issues but may incur unacceptable overhead. Research into techniques for performance-driven contract enforcement pursues practical solutions to adapting the level of contract enforcement to performance constraints.

  1. Flood frequency analysis: Confidence interval estimation by test inversion bootstrapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schendel, Thomas; Thongwichian, Rossukon

    2015-09-01

    A common approach to estimate extreme flood events is the annual block maxima approach, where for each year the peak streamflow is determined and a distribution (usually the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV)) is fitted to this series of maxima. Eventually this distribution is used to estimate the return level for a defined return period. However, due to the finite sample size, the estimated return levels are associated with a range of uncertainity, usually expressed via confidence intervals. Previous publications have shown that existing bootstrapping methods for estimating the confidence intervals of the GEV yield too narrow estimates of these uncertainty ranges. Therefore, we present in this article a novel approach based on the less known test inversion bootstrapping, which we adapted especially for complex quantities like the return level. The reliability of this approach is studied and its performance is compared to other bootstrapping methods as well as the Profile Likelihood technique. It is shown that the new approach improves significantly the coverage of confidence intervals compared to other bootstrapping methods and for small sample sizes should even be favoured over the Profile Likelihood.

  2. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  3. The Confidence Factor in Liberal Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    With the US unemployment rate at 9 percent, it's rational for college students to lose confidence in the liberal arts and to opt for a vocational major. Or is it? There is a compelling economic case for the liberal arts. Against those who call for more professional training, liberal educators should concede nothing. However, they do have a…

  4. Mixed Confidence Estimation for Iterative CT Reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Perlmutter, David S; Kim, Soo Mee; Kinahan, Paul E; Alessio, Adam M

    2016-09-01

    Dynamic (4D) CT imaging is used in a variety of applications, but the two major drawbacks of the technique are its increased radiation dose and longer reconstruction time. Here we present a statistical analysis of our previously proposed Mixed Confidence Estimation (MCE) method that addresses both these issues. This method, where framed iterative reconstruction is only performed on the dynamic regions of each frame while static regions are fixed across frames to a composite image, was proposed to reduce computation time. In this work, we generalize the previous method to describe any application where a portion of the image is known with higher confidence (static, composite, lower-frequency content, etc.) and a portion of the image is known with lower confidence (dynamic, targeted, etc). We show that by splitting the image space into higher and lower confidence components, MCE can lower the estimator variance in both regions compared to conventional reconstruction. We present a theoretical argument for this reduction in estimator variance and verify this argument with proof-of-principle simulations. We also propose a fast approximation of the variance of images reconstructed with MCE and confirm that this approximation is accurate compared to analytic calculations of and multi-realization image variance. This MCE method requires less computation time and provides reduced image variance for imaging scenarios where portions of the image are known with more certainty than others allowing for potentially reduced radiation dose and/or improved dynamic imaging. PMID:27008663

  5. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Jaeger, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45°) represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned) input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays. PMID:26495433

  6. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  7. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  8. Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

  9. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  10. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  11. Highly Confident but Wrong: Gender Differences and Similarities in Confidence Judgments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lundeberg, Mary A.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Gender differences in item-specific confidence judgments were studied for 70 male and 181 female college students. Gender differences in confidence were dependent on context and the domain being tested. Both men and women were overconfident, but men were especially overconfident when incorrect. (SLD)

  12. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    at different levels of confidence will help clarify the topological and biological properties associated with human protein networks. PMID:22558947

  13. Random selection as a confidence building tool

    SciTech Connect

    Macarthur, Duncan W; Hauck, Danielle; Langner, Diana; Thron, Jonathan; Smith, Morag; Williams, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Any verification measurement performed on potentially classified nuclear material must satisfy two seemingly contradictory constraints. First and foremost, no classified information can be released. At the same time, the monitoring party must have confidence in the veracity of the measurement. The first concern can be addressed by performing the measurements within the host facility using instruments under the host's control. Because the data output in this measurement scenario is also under host control, it is difficult for the monitoring party to have confidence in that data. One technique for addressing this difficulty is random selection. The concept of random selection can be thought of as four steps: (1) The host presents several 'identical' copies of a component or system to the monitor. (2) One (or more) of these copies is randomly chosen by the monitors for use in the measurement system. (3) Similarly, one or more is randomly chosen to be validated further at a later date in a monitor-controlled facility. (4) Because the two components or systems are identical, validation of the 'validation copy' is equivalent to validation of the measurement system. This procedure sounds straightforward, but effective application may be quite difficult. Although random selection is often viewed as a panacea for confidence building, the amount of confidence generated depends on the monitor's continuity of knowledge for both validation and measurement systems. In this presentation, we will discuss the random selection technique, as well as where and how this technique might be applied to generate maximum confidence. In addition, we will discuss the role of modular measurement-system design in facilitating random selection and describe a simple modular measurement system incorporating six small {sup 3}He neutron detectors and a single high-purity germanium gamma detector.

  14. A temporal and spatial analysis of ground-water levels for effective monitoring in Huron County, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holtschlag, David J.; Sweat, M.J.

    1999-01-01

    Quarterly water-level measurements were analyzed to assess the effectiveness of a monitoring network of 26 wells in Huron County, Michigan. Trends were identified as constant levels and autoregressive components were computed at all wells on the basis of data from 1993 to 1997 using structural time series analysis. Fixed seasonal components were identified at 22 wells and outliers were identified at 23 wells. The 95-percent confidence intervals were forecast for water-levels during the first and second quarters of 1998. Intervals in the first quarter were consistent with 92.3 percent of the measured values. In the second quarter, measured values were with the forecast intervals only 65.4 percent of the time. Unusually low precipitation during the second quarter is thought to have contributed to the reduced reliability of the second-quarter forecasts. Spatial interrelations among wells were investigated on the basis of the autoregressive components, which were filtered to create a set of innovation sequences that were temporally uncorrelated. The empirical covariance among the innovation sequences indicated both positive and negative spatial interrelations. The negative covariance components are considered to be physically implausible and to have resulted from random sampling error. Graphical modeling, a form of multivariate analysis, was used to model the covariance structure. Results indicate that only 29 of the 325 possible partial correlations among the water-level innovations were statistically significant. The model covariance matrix, corresponding to the model partial correlation structure, contained only positive elements. This model covariance was sequentially partitioned to compute a set of partial covariance matrices that were used to rank the effectiveness of the 26 monitoring wells from greatest to least. Results, for example, indicate that about 50 percent of the uncertainty of the water-level innovations currently monitored by the 26-well network

  15. Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

    2007-01-01

    Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

  16. Written Language Disorders: Speech-Language Pathologists' Training, Knowledge, and Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blood, Gordon W.; Mamett, Callie; Gordon, Rebecca; Blood, Ingrid M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined speech-language pathologists' (SLPs') perceptions of their (a) educational and clinical training in evaluating and treating written language disorders, (b) knowledge bases in this area, (c) sources of knowledge about written language disorders, (d) confidence levels, and (e) predictors of confidence in working with…

  17. Identifying Determinants of Academic Self-Confidence among Science, Math, Engineering, and Technology Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Penelope M.; Brainard, Suzanne G.

    2001-01-01

    Attempts to identify determinants of the gender gap in science, math, engineering, and technology (SMET) students' levels of self-confidence in math, science, and overall academic ability. Results point to perceived respect from professors as the strongest determinant of female academic self-confidence whereas the perceived quality of teaching is…

  18. Statistical analysis of synaptic transmission: model discrimination and confidence limits.

    PubMed Central

    Stricker, C; Redman, S; Daley, D

    1994-01-01

    Procedures for discriminating between competing statistical models of synaptic transmission, and for providing confidence limits on the parameters of these models, have been developed. These procedures were tested against simulated data and were used to analyze the fluctuations in synaptic currents evoked in hippocampal neurones. All models were fitted to data using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and a maximum likelihood criterion. Competing models were evaluated using the log-likelihood ratio (Wilks statistic). When the competing models were not nested, Monte Carlo sampling of the model used as the null hypothesis (H0) provided density functions against which H0 and the alternate model (H1) were tested. The statistic for the log-likelihood ratio was determined from the fit of H0 and H1 to these probability densities. This statistic was used to determine the significance level at which H0 could be rejected for the original data. When the competing models were nested, log-likelihood ratios and the chi 2 statistic were used to determine the confidence level for rejection. Once the model that provided the best statistical fit to the data was identified, many estimates for the model parameters were calculated by resampling the original data. Bootstrap techniques were then used to obtain the confidence limits of these parameters. PMID:7948672

  19. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  20. Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1987-01-01

    An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

  1. On the Confidence Limit of Hilbert Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Norden

    2003-01-01

    Confidence limit is a routine requirement for Fourier spectral analysis. But this confidence limit is established based on ergodic theory: For stationary process, temporal average equals the ensemble average. Therefore, one can divide the data into n-sections and treat each section as independent realization. Most natural processes in general, and climate data in particular, are not stationary; therefore, there is a need for the Hilbert Spectral analysis for such processes. Here ergodic theory is no longer applicable. We propose to use various adjustable parameters in the shifting processes of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method to obtain an ensemble of Intrinsic Mode Function 0 sets. Based on such an ensemble, we introduce a statistical measure in. a form of confidence limits for the Intrinsic Mode Functions, and consequently, the Hilbert spectra. The criterion of selecting the various adjustable parameters is based on the orthogonality test of the resulting M F sets. Length-of-day data from 1962 to 2001 will be used to illustrate this new approach. Its implication in climate data analysis will also be discussed.

  2. Relationship between self-confidence and sex role identity among managerial women and men.

    PubMed

    Chusmir, L H; Koberg, C S

    1991-12-01

    The self-confidence and sex role identities of 437 American female and male managers were examined by using three subscales of the Adjective Check List. Results showed that, contrary to stereotypes and older research, female and male managers were strikingly similar. Women and men with cross-sex role identities showed lower levels of self-confidence than those did with androgynous orientations; high self-confidence was linked with masculine and androgynous orientations. The managers were not significantly different in self-confidence when demographic variables and sex role identity were held constant. Sex role identity (but not gender) was a major factor in the level of self-confidence. PMID:1816466

  3. Evaluation of undergraduate nursing students' clinical confidence following a mental health recovery camp.

    PubMed

    Cowley, Thomas; Sumskis, Sue; Moxham, Lorna; Taylor, Ellie; Brighton, Renee; Patterson, Chris; Halcomb, Elizabeth

    2016-02-01

    In the present study, we evaluate the impact of participation in a mental health recovery camp on the clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students in dealing with individuals with mental illness. Twenty undergraduate nursing students who participated in the recovery camp completed the Mental Health Nursing Clinical Confidence Scale both before and directly after attending the camp. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Participation in the recovery camp was associated with a statistically-significant increase in students' level of overall confidence between the pretest and post-test data (P < 0.005). The results also demonstrated that students over the age of 25 years and who do not have a family history of mental illness are more likely to self-report a higher level of confidence in both the pre- and post-results. The clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students improved through participation in an immersive clinical experience within the recovery camp. PMID:26767715

  4. What is your savings personality? The 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey.

    PubMed

    Yakoboski, P; Ostuw, P; Hicks, J

    1998-08-01

    This Issue Brief presents the findings of the 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS). The survey tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into six distinct groups, based on their very different views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The six personality types identified in the RCS are Deniers (10 percent of the population), Strugglers (9 percent), Impulsives (20 percent), Cautious Savers (21 percent), Planners (23 percent), and Retiring Savers (17 percent). The survey shows that working Americans have become more focused on retirement; 45 percent have tried to determine how much they need to save before they retire, up from 32 percent in 1996. Americans' growing attention to their retirement has not increased their retirement income confidence. Since 1993, the portion of working Americans who are very confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement has consistently ranged from 20 percent to 25 percent. Sixty-three percent of Americans have begun to save for retirement. Fifty-five percent of those not saving for retirement say it is reasonably possible for them to save $20 per week (over $1,000 per year). In addition, 57 percent of workers who have begun to save say that it is reasonably possible for them to save an additional $20 per week. The findings demonstrate the continuing need for broad-based educational efforts designed to make retirement savings a priority for individuals. The good news is the evidence that education can have a real impact at the individual level. For the first time the 1998 RCS examined retirement planning, saving, and attitudes across ethnic groups (African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans, and whites). African-Americans are the least confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. African-Americans and Hispanic

  5. Metamemory in schizophrenia: retrospective confidence ratings interact with neurocognitive deficits.

    PubMed

    Eifler, Sarah; Rausch, Franziska; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Veckenstedt, Ruth; Mier, Daniela; Esslinger, Christine; Englisch, Susanne; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

    2015-02-28

    Prior studies with schizophrenia patients described a reduced ability to discriminate between correct and false memories in terms of confidence compared to control groups. This metamemory bias has been associated with the emergence and maintenance of delusions. The relation to neuropsychological performance and other clinical dimensions is incompletely understood. In a cross-sectional study, metamemory functioning was explored in 32 schizophrenia patients and 25 healthy controls. Metamemory was assessed using a verbal recognition task combined with retrospective confidence level ratings. Associations of metamemory performance with six neuropsychological domains (executive functioning/problem solving, speed of processing, working memory, verbal and visual learning, and attention/vigilance) and psychopathological measures were analyzed. Results revealed a significantly smaller discrepancy between confidence ratings for correct and incorrect recognitions in the patient group. Furthermore, patients showed significantly lower recognition accuracy in the metamemory task and marked deficits in all neuropsychological domains. Across all participants, metamemory performance significantly correlated with executive functioning and working memory. No associations with delusions were found. This data confirms prior findings of metamemory biases in schizophrenia. Selective neuropsychological abilities seem to be modulating factors of metamemory functioning. Longitudinal studies in at risk mental state and first-episode patients are needed to reveal causal interrelations. PMID:25530415

  6. Metacognition in human decision-making: confidence and error monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Yeung, Nick; Summerfield, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    People are capable of robust evaluations of their decisions: they are often aware of their mistakes even without explicit feedback, and report levels of confidence in their decisions that correlate with objective performance. These metacognitive abilities help people to avoid making the same mistakes twice, and to avoid overcommitting time or resources to decisions that are based on unreliable evidence. In this review, we consider progress in characterizing the neural and mechanistic basis of these related aspects of metacognition—confidence judgements and error monitoring—and identify crucial points of convergence between methods and theories in the two fields. This convergence suggests that common principles govern metacognitive judgements of confidence and accuracy; in particular, a shared reliance on post-decisional processing within the systems responsible for the initial decision. However, research in both fields has focused rather narrowly on simple, discrete decisions—reflecting the correspondingly restricted focus of current models of the decision process itself—raising doubts about the degree to which discovered principles will scale up to explain metacognitive evaluation of real-world decisions and actions that are fluid, temporally extended, and embedded in the broader context of evolving behavioural goals. PMID:22492749

  7. Eyewitness memory of a supermarket robbery: a case study of accuracy and confidence after 3 months.

    PubMed

    Odinot, Geralda; Wolters, Gezinus; van Koppen, Peter J

    2009-12-01

    In this case study, 14 witnesses of an armed robbery were interviewed after 3 months. Security camera recordings were used to assess memory accuracy. Of all information that could be remembered about 84% was correct. Although accurately recalled information had a higher confidence level on average than inaccurately recalled information, the mean accuracy-confidence correlation was rather modest (0.38). These findings indicate that confidence is not a reliable predictor of accuracy. A higher level of self-reported, post-event thinking about the incident was associated with higher confidence levels, while a higher level of self-reported emotional impact was associated with greater accuracy. A potential source of (mis)information, a reconstruction of the robbery broadcasted on TV, did not alter the original memories of the witnesses. PMID:18719983

  8. Influence of Nodule Detection Software on Radiologists’ Confidence in Identifying Pulmonary Nodules With Computed Tomography

    PubMed Central

    Nietert, Paul J.; Ravenel, James G.; Taylor, Katherine K.; Silvestri, Gerard A.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose With advances in technology, detection of small pulmonary nodules is increasing. Nodule detection software (NDS) has been developed to assist radiologists with pulmonary nodule diagnosis. Although it may increase sensitivity for small nodules, often there is an accompanying increase in false-positive findings. We designed a study to examine the extent to which computed tomography (CT) NDS influences the confidence of radiologists in identifying small pulmonary nodules. Materials and Methods Eight radiologists (readers) with different levels of experience examined thoracic CT scans of 131 cases and identified all the clinically relevant pulmonary nodules. The reference standard was established by an expert, dedicated thoracic radiologist. For each nodule, the readers recorded nodule size, density, location, and confidence level. Two weeks (or more) later, the readers reinterpreted the same scans; however, this time they were provided marks, when present, as indicated by NDS and asked to reassess their level of confidence. The effect of NDS on changes in reader confidence was assessed using multivariable generalized linear regression models. Results A total of 327 unique nodules were identified. Declines in confidence were significantly (P<0.05) associated with the absence of an NDS mark and smaller nodules (odds ratio=71.0, 95% confidence interval =14.8–339.7). Among nodules with pre-NDS confidence less than 100%, increases in confidence were significantly (P<0.05) associated with the presence of an NDS mark (odds ratio=6.0, 95% confidence interval =2.7–13.6) and larger nodules. Secondary findings showed that NDS did not improve reader diagnostic accuracy. Conclusion Although in this study NDS does not seem to enhance reader accuracy, the confidence of the radiologists in identifying small pulmonary nodules with CT is greatly influenced by NDS. PMID:20498624

  9. The Relationship Between Clinicians' Confidence and Accuracy, and the Influence of Child Characteristics, in the Screening of Autism Spectrum Disorder.

    PubMed

    Hedley, Darren; Brewer, Neil; Nevill, Rose; Uljarević, Mirko; Butter, Eric; Mulick, James A

    2016-07-01

    The study examined the confidence accuracy relationship, and the influence of child characteristics on clinician confidence, when predicting a diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder during screening of 125 referred children aged under 3.5 years. The diagnostic process included observation, interview, language and developmental testing. Clinical judgement accuracy was compared against final diagnosis for high and low confidence levels (with confidence assessed on a 0-100 % scale). We identified a significant CA relationship with predictive accuracy highest at confidence levels of 90-100 %. Parent report of unusual behaviors was the only significant independent predictor of confidence. Clinicians' confidence may be important when evaluating decisions to refer, or not to refer, children for further diagnostic assessment. PMID:26975451

  10. European security, nuclear weapons and public confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Gutteridge, W.

    1982-01-01

    This book presents papers on nuclear arms control in Europe. Topics considered include political aspects, the balance of power, nuclear disarmament in Europe, the implications of new conventional technologies, the neutron bomb, theater nuclear weapons, arms control in Northern Europe, naval confidence-building measures in the Baltic, the strategic balance in the Arctic Ocean, Arctic resources, threats to European stability, developments in South Africa, economic cooperation in Europe, European collaboration in science and technology after Helsinki, European cooperation in the area of electric power, and economic cooperation as a factor for the development of European security and cooperation.

  11. Confidence and conflicts of duty in surgery.

    PubMed

    Coggon, John; Wheeler, Robert

    2010-03-01

    This paper offers an exploration of the right to confidentiality, considering the moral importance of private information. It is shown that the legitimate value that individuals derive from confidentiality stems from the public interest. It is re-assuring, therefore, that public interest arguments must be made to justify breaches of confidentiality. The General Medical Council's guidance gives very high importance to duties to maintain confidences, but also rightly acknowledges that, at times, there are more important duties that must be met. Nevertheless, this potential conflict of obligations may place the surgeon in difficult clinical situations, and examples of these are described, together with suggestions for resolution. PMID:20353640

  12. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  13. Medical students as EMTs: skill building, confidence and professional formation

    PubMed Central

    Kwiatkowski, Thomas; Rennie, William; Fornari, Alice; Akbar, Salaahuddin

    2014-01-01

    Objective The first course of the medical curriculum at the Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine, From the Person to the Professional: Challenges, Privileges and Responsibilities, provides an innovative early clinical immersion. The course content specific to the Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) curriculum was developed using the New York State Emergency Medical Technician curriculum. Students gain early legitimate clinical experience and practice clinical skills as team members in the pre-hospital environment. We hypothesized this novel curriculum would increase students’ confidence in their ability to perform patient care skills and enhance students’ comfort with team-building skills early in their training. Methods Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from first-year medical students (n=97) through a survey developed to assess students’ confidence in patient care and team-building skills. The survey was completed prior to medical school, during the final week of the course, and at the end of their first year. A paired-samples t-test was conducted to compare self-ratings on 12 patient care and 12 team-building skills before and after the course, and a theme analysis was conducted to examine open-ended responses. Results Following the course, student confidence in patient care skills showed a significant increase from baseline (p<0.05) for all identified skills. Student confidence in team-building skills showed a significant increase (p<0.05) in 4 of the 12 identified skills. By the end of the first year, 84% of the first-year students reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their patient care skills, while 72% reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their team-building skills. Conclusions The incorporation of EMT training early in a medical school curriculum provides students with meaningful clinical experiences that increase their self-reported level of confidence in

  14. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  15. Covariate-adjusted confidence interval for the intraclass correlation coefficient.

    PubMed

    Shoukri, Mohamed M; Donner, Allan; El-Dali, Abdelmoneim

    2013-09-01

    A crucial step in designing a new study is to estimate the required sample size. For a design involving cluster sampling, the appropriate sample size depends on the so-called design effect, which is a function of the average cluster size and the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC). It is well-known that under the framework of hierarchical and generalized linear models, a reduction in residual error may be achieved by including risk factors as covariates. In this paper we show that the covariate design, indicating whether the covariates are measured at the cluster level or at the within-cluster subject level affects the estimation of the ICC, and hence the design effect. Therefore, the distinction between these two types of covariates should be made at the design stage. In this paper we use the nested-bootstrap method to assess the accuracy of the estimated ICC for continuous and binary response variables under different covariate structures. The codes of two SAS macros are made available by the authors for interested readers to facilitate the construction of confidence intervals for the ICC. Moreover, using Monte Carlo simulations we evaluate the relative efficiency of the estimators and evaluate the accuracy of the coverage probabilities of a 95% confidence interval on the population ICC. The methodology is illustrated using a published data set of blood pressure measurements taken on family members. PMID:23871746

  16. Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

  17. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    PubMed Central

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  18. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures

    PubMed Central

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference. PMID:25190904

  19. Relations among Affect, Abstinence Motivation and Confidence, and Daily Smoking Lapse Risk

    PubMed Central

    Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M.; Bold, Krysten W.; Chapman, Gretchen B.; McCarthy, Danielle E.

    2016-01-01

    Aims This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12–24 hours using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. Method 103 adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries post-quit. Results Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hours later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours while momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hours. Conclusion Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments. PMID:24955665

  20. Relations among affect, abstinence motivation and confidence, and daily smoking lapse risk.

    PubMed

    Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M; Bold, Krysten W; Chapman, Gretchen B; McCarthy, Danielle E

    2014-06-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12-24 hr using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. One hundred and three adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries postquit. Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hr later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours although momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hr. Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments. PMID:24955665

  1. A confidence parameter for seismic moment tensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tape, Walter; Tape, Carl

    2016-02-01

    Given a moment tensor m inferred from seismic data for an earthquake, we define P(V) to be the probability that the true moment tensor for the earthquake lies in the neighborhood of m that has fractional volume V. The average value of P(V) is then a measure of our confidence in m. The calculation of P(V) requires knowing both the probability hat{P}(ω ) and the fractional volume hat{V}(ω ) of the set of moment tensors within a given angular radius ω of m. We explain how to construct hat{P}(ω ) from a misfit function derived from seismic data, and we show how to calculate hat{V}(ω ), which depends on the set M of moment tensors under consideration. The two most important instances of M are where M is the set of all moment tensors of fixed norm, and where M is the set of all double couples of fixed norm.

  2. Germany and America: Crisis of confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Asmus, R.D.

    1991-02-01

    The paper examines the deterioration in German-American relations. The reasons for this downturn in German-American relations are quite simple. Washington views the Persian Gulf crisis as a defining moment in European-American relations and in the creation of a new world order. It is also the first diplomatic test of a unified Germany and a new German-American relationship. It is a test that Germany is thus far seen as having failed for three reasons. First, from the outset many Americans sensed that Germans did not comprehend what this crisis meant for the United States. A second and, in many ways, more worrying factor was the growing sense that the Germans were not being good Europeans. The third and most serious American concern, however, was the unsettling appearance of a very selective German definition of collective defense and common security. The result has been a crisis of confidence in the performance of the German political elite that goes beyond the problems in German-American relations during the early 1980s and the INF debate.

  3. Towards better counselling. Keeping confidences. Training activities.

    PubMed

    1996-01-01

    Presented are two training exercises for health personnel who counsel individuals about the results of blood tests for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The first exercise is preceded by remarks on the importance of trust and confidentiality in the clinical encounter. Then, participants are divided into pairs and instructed to think of a person they trust and to list 10 characteristics of that person. These attributes are compiled for the entire group. Next, small groups of 3-4 participants discuss the following questions: What do you need to say and do when you are counseling someone to help them have confidence in you? What do you need to do to enable them to keep trusting you? What might happen when confidentiality is broken? What are the benefits of maintaining confidentiality? Finally, the small groups are given case scenarios of breaches of client confidentiality and asked to imagine both how they would feel in such a situation and how it could have been prevented. The second exercise seeks to increase counselors' understanding of clients' risk-taking behaviors and their ability to suspend personal judgment by having them describe incidents from their own lives when they took a risk related to sex, relationships, or money. PMID:12291931

  4. A confidence parameter for seismic moment tensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tape, Walter; Tape, Carl

    2016-05-01

    Given a moment tensor m inferred from seismic data for an earthquake, we define P(V) to be the probability that the true moment tensor for the earthquake lies in the neighbourhood of m that has fractional volume V. The average value of P(V) is then a measure of our confidence in m. The calculation of P(V) requires knowing both the probability hat{P}(ω) and the fractional volume hat{V}(ω) of the set of moment tensors within a given angular radius ω of m. We explain how to construct hat{P}(ω) from a misfit function derived from seismic data, and we show how to calculate hat{V}(ω), which depends on the set M of moment tensors under consideration. The two most important instances of M are where M is the set of all moment tensors of fixed norm, and where M is the set of all double couples of fixed norm.

  5. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  6. Girls and Women, Sport, and Self-Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lirgg, Cathy D.

    1992-01-01

    Analyzes research on females' self-confidence in sport and physical activity. The article compares three models that link confidence to achievement, examines research variables that may influence female self-confidence, discusses sex differences, and offers enhancement strategies and future research directions. (SM)

  7. Does Consumer Confidence Measure Up to the Hype?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffitts, Dawn

    2003-01-01

    This economic education publication features an article, "Does Consumer Confidence Measure Up to the Hype?," which defines consumer confidence and describes how it is measured. The article also explores why people might pay so much attention to consumer confidence indexes. The document also contains a question and answer section about deflation as…

  8. Predicting Postfeedback Performance from Students' Confidence in Their Responses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bender, Timothy A.

    The model of feedback processing proposed by R. W. Kulhavy and W. A. Stock (1989) was studied in a traditional classroom setting in which methods of assessing students' response confidence as predictors of postfeedback performance were also examined. The relationship between confidence ratings at the time of the test and confidence assessed prior…

  9. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to...

  10. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  11. Estimates of future inundation of salt marshes in response to sea-level rise in and around Acadia National Park, Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nielsen, Martha G.; Dudley, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    Salt marshes are ecosystems that provide many important ecological functions in the Gulf of Maine. The U.S. Geological Survey investigated salt marshes in and around Acadia National Park from Penobscot Bay to the Schoodic Peninsula to map the potential for landward migration of marshes using a static inundation model of a sea-level rise scenario of 60 centimeters (cm; 2 feet). The resulting inundation contours can be used by resource managers to proactively adapt to sea-level rise by identifying and targeting low-lying coastal areas adjacent to salt marshes for conservation or further investigation, and to identify risks to infrastructure in the coastal zone. For this study, the mapping of static inundation was based on digital elevation models derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) topographic data collected in October 2010. Land-surveyed control points were used to evaluate the accuracy of the LiDAR data in the study area, yielding a root mean square error of 11.3 cm. An independent accuracy assessment of the LiDAR data specific to salt-marsh land surfaces indicated a root mean square error of 13.3 cm and 95-percent confidence interval of ± 26.0 cm. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models and digital color aerial photography, taken during low tide conditions in 2008, with a pixel resolution of 0.5 meters, were used to identify the highest elevation of the land surface at each salt marsh in the study area. Inundation contours for 60-cm of sea-level rise were delineated above the highest marsh elevation for each marsh. Confidence interval contours (95-percent,± 26.0 cm) were delineated above and below the 60-cm inundation contours, and artificial structures, such as roads and bridges, that may present barriers to salt-marsh migration were mapped. This study delineated 114 salt marshes totaling 340 hectares (ha), ranging in size from 0.11 ha (marshes less than 0.2 ha were mapped only if they were on Acadia National Park property) to 52 ha, with a median

  12. Determination of land subsidence related to ground-water-level declines using Global Positioning System and leveling surveys in Antelope Valley, Los Angeles and Kern counties, California, 1992

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ikehara, M.E.; Phillips, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    A large-scale, land-subsidence monitoring network for Antelope Valley, California, was established, and positions and elevations for 85 stations were measured using Global Positioning System geodetic surveying in spring 1992. The 95-percent confidence (2@) level of accuracy for the elevations calculated for a multiple-constraint adjustment generally ranged from +0.010 meter (0.032 foot) to +0.024 meter (0.078 foot). The magnitudes and rates of land subsidence as of 1992 were calculated for several periods for 218 bench marks throughout Antelope Valley. The maximum measured magnitude of land subsidence that occurred between 1926 and 1992 was 6.0 feet (1.83 meters) at BM 474 near Avenue I and Sierra Highway. Measured or estimated subsidence of 2-7 feet (.61-2.l3 meters) had occurred in a 210- square-mile (542-square-kilometer) area of Antelope Valley, generally bounded by Avenue K, Avenue A, 90th Street West, and 120th Street East, during the same period. Land subsidence in Antelope Valley is caused by aquifer-system compaction, which is related to ground-water-level declines and the presence of fine-grained, compressible sediments. Comparison of potentiomethric-surface, water-level decline, and subsidence-rate maps for several periods indicated a general correlation between water-level declines and the distribution and rate of subsidence in the Lancaster ground-water subbasin. A conservative estimate of the amount of the reduction in storage capacity of the aquifer system in the Lancaster subbasin is about 50,000 acre-feet in the area that has been affected by more than one foot (.30 meters) of subsidence as of 1992. Information on the history of ground-water levels and the distribution and thickness of fine-grained compressible sediments can be used to mitigate continued land subsidence. Future monitoring of ground-water levels and land-surface elevations in subsidence-sensitive regions of Antelope Valley may be an effective means to manage land subsidence.

  13. Students' confidence in the ability to transfer basic math skills in introductory physics and chemistry courses at a community college

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, Reginald

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the confidence levels that community college students have in transferring basic math skills to science classes, as well as any factors that influence their confidence levels. This study was conducted with 196 students at a community college in central Mississippi. The study was conducted during the month of November after all of the students had taken their midterm exams and received midterm grades. The instrument used in this survey was developed and validated by the researcher. The instrument asks the students to rate how confident they were in working out specific math problems and how confident they were in working problems using those specific math skills in physics and chemistry. The instrument also provided an example problem for every confidence item. Results revealed that students' demographics were significant predictors in confidence scores. Students in the 18-22 year old range were less confident in solving math problems than others. Students who had retaken a math course were less confident than those who had not. Chemistry students were less confident in solving math problems than those in physics courses. Chemistry II students were less confident than those in Chemistry I and Principals of Chemistry. Students were least confident in solving problems involving logarithms and the most confident in solving algebra problems. In general, students felt that their math courses did not prepare them for the math problems encountered in science courses. There was no significant difference in confidence between students who had completed their math homework online and those who had completed their homework on paper. The researcher recommends that chemistry educators find ways of incorporating more mathematics in their courses especially logarithms and slope. Furthermore, math educators should incorporate more chemistry related applications to math class. Results of hypotheses testing, conclusions, discussions, and

  14. Patient-reported confidence in primary healthcare: are there disparities by ethnicity or language?

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Sabrina T; Black, Charlyn; Cutler, Fred; Brooke, Rebecca; Haggerty, Jeannie L; Levesque, Jean-Frederic

    2014-01-01

    Objective To examine whether confidence in primary healthcare (PHC) differs among ethnic–linguistic groups and which PHC experiences are associated with confidence. Design A cross-sectional study where patient surveys were administered using random digit dialling. Regression models identify whether ethnic–linguistic group remains significantly associated with confidence in PHC. Setting British Columbia, Canada. Main outcome measures Confidence in PHC measured using a 0–10 scale, where a higher score indicates increased confidence in the ability to get needed PHC services. Participants Community-dwelling adults in the following ethnic–linguistic groups: English-speaking Chinese, Chinese-speaking Chinese, English-speaking South Asians, Punjabi-speaking South Asians and English-speakers of presumed European descent. Findings Based on a sample of 1211 respondents, confidence in PHC differed by ethnicity and the ability to speak English. Most of the differences in confidence by ethnic–linguistic group can be explained by various aspects of care experience. Patient experiences associated with lower confidence in PHC were: if care was received outside Canada, having to wait months to see their regular doctor and rating the quality of healthcare as good or fair/poor. Better patient experiences of their doctor being concerned about their feelings and being respectful and if they found wait times acceptable were associated with higher levels of confidence in PHC. The final regression model explained 30% of the variance. Conclusions Improving the delivery of PHC services through positive interactions between patients and their usual provider and acceptability of wait times are examples of how the PHC system can be strengthened. PMID:24568960

  15. Relating confidence to information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-12-02

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing security risk results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to determine a qualitative measure of confidence in a qualitative reasoning result from the available information uncertainty in the result using membership values in the fuzzy sets of confidence. In this study information uncertainty is quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values. Measured values of information uncertainty in each result is used to obtain the confidence. The determined confidence values are used to compare competing scenarios and understand the influences on the desired result.

  16. Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

    PubMed

    Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

    2004-04-01

    Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency. PMID:15065979

  17. Confidence through consensus: a neural mechanism for uncertainty monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Paz, Luciano; Insabato, Andrea; Zylberberg, Ariel; Deco, Gustavo; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-01-01

    Models that integrate sensory evidence to a threshold can explain task accuracy, response times and confidence, yet it is still unclear how confidence is encoded in the brain. Classic models assume that confidence is encoded in some form of balance between the evidence integrated in favor and against the selected option. However, recent experiments that measure the sensory evidence’s influence on choice and confidence contradict these classic models. We propose that the decision is taken by many loosely coupled modules each of which represent a stochastic sample of the sensory evidence integral. Confidence is then encoded in the dispersion between modules. We show that our proposal can account for the well established relations between confidence, and stimuli discriminability and reaction times, as well as the fluctuations influence on choice and confidence. PMID:26907162

  18. Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Leif; Box, Neil; Carter, Katrina; DiFilippo, Denise; Harrington, Sean; Jackson, David; Lutomski, Michael

    2012-01-01

    There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.

  19. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper. PMID:26828651

  20. Melamine in Chinese milk products and consumer confidence.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Guanghua; Guo, Ting; Klein, K K

    2010-10-01

    Chinese consumers were shocked to learn in September 2008 that melamine, a chemical used in plastics, had been found in domestic dairy products and many people, especially young children, were experiencing adverse health impacts including death. A survey of consumers in four districts of Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, near where the two largest dairy companies in China are located, was conducted in November 2008. Findings reveal that consumption of fluid milk, yogurt, milk powder and ice cream, and perceptions of the safety of these products, which had plummeted in the days following the contamination announcement, had recovered strongly by the time of the survey. High proportions of respondents expressed high or moderate levels of confidence in the domestic dairy industry and generally were satisfied with corrective and remedial actions taken by the two large Hohhot-based companies, though there was less satisfaction for actions taken by companies located in other parts of the country. PMID:20566397

  1. Dead certain: confidence and conservatism predict aggression in simulated international crisis decision-making.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Dominic D P; McDermott, Rose; Cowden, Jon; Tingley, Dustin

    2012-03-01

    Evolutionary psychologists have suggested that confidence and conservatism promoted aggression in our ancestral past, and that this may have been an adaptive strategy given the prevailing costs and benefits of conflict. However, in modern environments, where the costs and benefits of conflict can be very different owing to the involvement of mass armies, sophisticated technology, and remote leadership, evolved tendencies toward high levels of confidence and conservatism may continue to be a contributory cause of aggression despite leading to greater costs and fewer benefits. The purpose of this paper is to test whether confidence and conservatism are indeed associated with greater levels of aggression-in an explicitly political domain. We present the results of an experiment examining people's levels of aggression in response to hypothetical international crises (a hostage crisis, a counter-insurgency campaign, and a coup). Levels of aggression (which range from concession to negotiation to military attack) were significantly predicted by subjects' (1) confidence that their chosen policy would succeed, (2) score on a liberal-conservative scale, (3) political party affiliation, and (4) preference for the use of military force in real-world U.S. policy toward Iraq and Iran. We discuss the possible adaptive and maladaptive implications of confidence and conservatism for the prospects of war and peace in the modern world. PMID:22450767

  2. Quantification of confidence in a geological model of Cumbria, UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waters, Colin; Lark, Murray; Mathers, Steve; Marchant, Andrew; Hulbert, Andrew

    2015-04-01

    A three-dimensional geological model of Cumbria was constructed by several geologists, applying expert judgment to interpret available data, as both a fence network of cross-sections in GSI3d and surfaces in GOCAD®. Direct statistical measures of uncertainty of the model are not available. Neither is it feasible to undertake post hoc sampling at additional independent boreholes to estimate measures of model uncertainty. The study considered various qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing the modelled surfaces and volumes. Modellers make judgments about the relative quality of different types of available data and the extent to which simple trends in the units of interest (e.g. a gentle dip) allow their structure to be extrapolated with confidence away from observations. Confidence decays with increasing distance from a hard observation, such as a field exposure, an interpreted borehole, or a "softer" observation such as a geophysical measurement. In the study area it is possible to make qualitative assessments of four distinct structural domains, marked by different levels in the confidence of the interpretation of the geological model through factors such as availability of deep borehole data, seismic lines, surface exposure and the complexity of the bedrock geology and an appraisal of the extent, amount and quality of the data used to constrain the boundaries presented within the model. The study also attempted to provide various quantitative approaches to assess the type and distribution of data. The quantification of a Confidence Index uses expert elicitation to assess the certainty of subsurface interpretations of modelled surfaces and volumes based upon a statistical analysis of the proximity to subsurface data (boreholes and seismic data). Application of this approach is presented as elevation and thickness grids for a principal aquifer in the region. This approach is directly applicable in areas where bedrock strata are poorly exposed and the

  3. Easy and Informative: Using Confidence-Weighted True-False Items for Knowledge Tests in Psychology Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dutke, Stephan; Barenberg, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a specific type of item for knowledge tests, confidence-weighted true-false (CTF) items, and review experiences of its application in psychology courses. A CTF item is a statement about the learning content to which students respond whether the statement is true or false, and they rate their confidence level. Previous studies using…

  4. Measuring Patterns of Surgeon Confidence Using a Novel Assessment Tool.

    PubMed

    Farrell, Timothy M; Ghaderi, Iman; McPhail, Lindsee E; Alger, Amy R; Meyers, Michael O; Meyer, Anthony A

    2016-01-01

    Confidence should increase during surgical training and practice. However, few data exist regarding confidence of surgeons across this continuum. Confidence may develop differently in clinical and personal domains, or may erode as specialization or age restricts practice. A reliable scale of confidence is needed to track this competency. A novel survey was distributed to surgeons in private and academic settings. One hundred and thirty-four respondents completed this cross-sectional survey. Surgeons reported anticipated reactions to clinical scenarios within three patient care domains (acute inpatient, nonacute inpatient, and outpatient) and in personal spheres. Confidence scores were plotted against years of experience. Curves of best fit were generated and trends assessed. A subgroup completed a second survey after four years to assess the survey's reliability over time. During residency, there is steep improvement in confidence reported by surgeons in all clinical domains, with further increase for inpatient domains during transition into practice. Confidence in personal spheres also increases quickly during residency and thereafter. The surgeon confidence scale captures the expected acquisition of confidence during early surgical experience, and will have value in following trends in surgeon confidence as training and practice patterns change. PMID:26802851

  5. Fatigue, Sleep Loss, and Confidence in Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baranski, Joseph V.

    2007-01-01

    Sixty-four adults participated in a study examining the accuracy of metacognitive judgments during 28 hr of sleep deprivation (SD) and continuous cognitive work. Three tasks were studied (perceptual comparison, general knowledge, and mental addition), collectively spanning a range of cognitive abilities and levels of susceptibility to SD.…

  6. A variance based confidence criterion for ERA identified modal parameters. [Eigensystem Realization Algorithm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Longman, Richard W.; Juang, Jer-Nan

    1988-01-01

    The realization theory is developed in a systematic manner for the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) used for system identification. First, perturbation results are obtained which describe the linearized changes in the identified parameters resulting from small change in the data. Formulas are then derived that can be used to evaluate the variance of each of the identified parameters, assuming that the noise level is sufficiently low to allow the application of linearized results. These variances can be converted to give confidence intervals for each of the parameters for any chosen confidence level.

  7. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions.

    PubMed

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R; Sigman, Mariano

    2014-07-01

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments has not been investigated before in the context of perceptual decisions. We studied subjective confidence reports in a multi-element perceptual task where evidence strength and reliability could be manipulated independently. Our results reveal a confidence paradox: confidence is higher for stimuli of lower reliability that are associated with a lower accuracy. We show that the subjects' overconfidence in trials with unreliable evidence is caused by a reduced sensitivity to stimulus variability. Our results bridge between the investigation of miss-attributions of confidence in behavioral economics and the domain of simple perceptual decisions amenable to neuroscience research. PMID:24951943

  8. Mass media and heterogeneous bounds of confidence in continuous opinion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pineda, M.; Buendía, G. M.

    2015-02-01

    This work focuses on the effects of an external mass media on continuous opinion dynamics with heterogeneous bounds of confidence. We modified the original Deffuant et al. and Hegselmann and Krause models to incorporate both, an external mass media and a heterogeneous distribution of confidence levels. We analysed two cases, one where only two bounds of confidence are taken into account, and other where each individual of the system has her/his own characteristic level of confidence. We found that, in the absence of mass media, diversity of bounds of confidence can improve the capacity of the systems to reach consensus. We show that the persuasion capacity of the external message is optimal for intermediate levels of heterogeneity. Our simulations also show the existence, for certain parameter values, of a counter-intuitive effect in which the persuasion capacity of the mass media decreases if the mass media intensity is too large. We discuss similarities and differences between the two heterogeneous versions of these continuous opinion dynamic models under the influence of mass media.

  9. Correlating Student Knowledge and Confidence Using a Graded Knowledge Survey to Assess Student Learning in a General Microbiology Classroom †

    PubMed Central

    Favazzo, Lacey; Willford, John D.; Watson, Rachel M.

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge surveys are a type of confidence survey in which students rate their confidence in their ability to answer questions rather than answering the questions. These surveys have been discussed as a tool to evaluate student in-class or curriculum-wide learning. However, disagreement exists as to whether confidence is actually an accurate measure of knowledge. With the concomitant goals of assessing content-based learning objectives and addressing this disagreement, we present herein a pretest/posttest knowledge survey study that demonstrates a significant difference correctness on graded test questions at different levels of reported confidence in a multi-semester timeframe. Questions were organized into Bloom’s taxonomy, allowing for the data collected to further provide statistical analyses on strengths and deficits in various levels of Bloom’s reasoning with regard to mean correctness. Collectively, students showed increasing confidence and correctness in all levels of thought but struggled with synthesis-level questions. However, when students were only asked to rate confidence and not answer the accompanying test questions, they reported significantly higher confidence than the control group which was asked to do both. This indicates that when students do not attempt to answer questions, they have significantly greater confidence in their ability to answer those questions. Additionally, when students rate only confidence without answering the question, resolution across Bloom’s levels of reasoning is lost. Based upon our findings, knowledge surveys can be an effective tool for assessment of both breadth and depth of knowledge, but may require students to answer questions in addition to rating confidence to provide the most accurate data. PMID:25574291

  10. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  11. Method and system for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location

    DOEpatents

    Karnowski, Thomas P.; Tobin, Jr., Kenneth W.; Muthusamy Govindasamy, Vijaya Priya; Chaum, Edward

    2012-07-10

    A method for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location that includes analyzing a retinal image and determining at least two sets of coordinates locating an optic disc in the retinal image. The sets of coordinates can be determined using first and second image analysis techniques that are different from one another. An accuracy parameter can be calculated and compared to a primary risk cut-off value. A high confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is less than the primary risk cut-off value and a low confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is greater than the primary risk cut-off value. The primary risk cut-off value being selected to represent an acceptable risk of misdiagnosis of a disease having retinal manifestations by the automated technique.

  12. The use of latin hypercube sampling for the efficient estimation of confidence intervals

    SciTech Connect

    Grabaskas, D.; Denning, R.; Aldemir, T.; Nakayama, M. K.

    2012-07-01

    Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) has long been used as a way of assuring adequate sampling of the tails of distributions in a Monte Carlo analysis and provided the framework for the uncertainty analysis performed in the NUREG-1150 risk assessment. However, this technique has not often been used in the performance of regulatory analyses due to the inability to establish confidence levels on the quantiles of the output distribution. Recent work has demonstrated a method that makes this possible. This method is compared to the procedure of crude Monte Carlo using order statistics, which is currently used to establish confidence levels. The results of several statistical examples demonstrate that the LHS confidence interval method can provide a more accurate and precise solution, but issues remain when applying the technique generally. (authors)

  13. Building public confidence in emergency management.

    PubMed

    Pearce, Tony

    2016-01-01

    Over the years the State of Victoria has suffered many disasters, some of them resulting in extensive community, economic and environmental loss. A number of significant events, including the 2009 Victorian bushfires, major flood events in 2010-11 and their subsequent inquiries have resulted in the biggest overhaul of Victoria's emergency management arrangements since 1983. One significant element of the new arrangements is the inclusion of an entity whose role it is to assure the emergency management arrangements at the system level--the first time such a role has existed. This paper will describe the reform programme currently underway in Victoria, as well as the governance and structural arrangements that have been put in place, before detailing the assurance processes that are being implemented. PMID:26897618

  14. Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

  15. True and false memories, parietal cortex, and confidence judgments.

    PubMed

    Urgolites, Zhisen J; Smith, Christine N; Squire, Larry R

    2015-11-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory). Accordingly, it has often been difficult to know whether a finding is related to memory confidence or memory accuracy. In the current study, participants made recognition memory judgments with confidence ratings in response to previously studied scenes and novel scenes. The left hippocampus and 16 other brain regions distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were different for the two conditions. Only three regions (all in the parietal cortex) distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were equated. These findings illustrate the utility of taking confidence ratings into account when identifying brain regions associated with true and false memories. Neural correlates of true and false memories are most easily interpreted when confidence ratings are similar for the two kinds of memories. PMID:26472645

  16. Producing "Confident" Children: Negotiating Childhood in Fijian Kindergartens

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brison, Karen J.

    2011-01-01

    Kindergartens in Fiji contribute to incipient class-based identities in a society traditionally structured by ethnicity. Teachers emphasize making children confident, but define confidence differently with varying student groups, building class-based orientations toward person and society. Parental expectations also differ with many upwardly…

  17. The Confident Learner: Help Your Child Succeed in School.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simic, Marjorie R.; And Others

    This book is intended to assist parents in helping their children become confident learners and self-reliant individuals who succeed in school. The book maintains that children become confident learners by developing high self-esteem, strong motivation, self-discipline, good health and fitness, and the ability to deal with stress. Following an…

  18. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  19. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  20. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  1. Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Jason E.

    A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

  2. Influence of Achievement Beliefs on Adolescent Girls' Sport Confidence Sources.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magyar, T. Michelle; Feltz, Deborah L.

    A study was conducted on the influence of female athletes' dispositional and situational tendencies on the selection of sources of sport confidence. It hypothesized that task orientation and perceptions of mastery climate would be positively associated with the selection of maladaptive or normative sources of confidence. Participants were 180…

  3. Information and Communication: Tools for Increasing Confidence in the Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    Beginning with a review of signs and signals of public attitudes toward American education over the last 15 years, this paper analyzes some concerns regarding public confidence in public schools. Following a brief introduction, issues involved in the definition and behavioral attributes of confidence are mentioned. A synopsis of three approaches…

  4. Confidence and Gender Differences on the Mental Rotations Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooke-Simpson, Amanda; Voyer, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    The present study examined the relation between self-reported confidence ratings, performance on the Mental Rotations Test (MRT), and guessing behavior on the MRT. Eighty undergraduate students (40 males, 40 females) completed the MRT while rating their confidence in the accuracy of their answers for each item. As expected, gender differences in…

  5. Subjective Confidence in One's Answers: The Consensuality Principle

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2008-01-01

    In answering general-information questions, a within-person confidence-accuracy (C-A) correlation is typically observed, suggesting that people can monitor the correctness of their knowledge. However, because the correct answer is generally the consensual answer--the one endorsed by most participants--confidence judgment may actually monitor the…

  6. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  7. A Rasch Analysis of the Teachers Music Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yim, Hoi Yin Bonnie; Abd-El-Fattah, Sabry; Lee, Lai Wan Maria

    2007-01-01

    This article presents a new measure of teachers' confidence to conduct musical activities with young children; Teachers Music Confidence Scale (TMCS). The TMCS was developed using a sample of 284 in-service and pre-service early childhood teachers in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The TMCS consisted of 10 musical activities.…

  8. Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

  9. Supplementary Eye Field Encodes Confidence in Decisions Under Risk.

    PubMed

    So, NaYoung; Stuphorn, Veit

    2016-02-01

    Choices are made with varying degrees of confidence, a cognitive signal representing the subjective belief in the optimality of the choice. Confidence has been mostly studied in the context of perceptual judgments, in which choice accuracy can be measured using objective criteria. Here, we study confidence in subjective value-based decisions. We recorded in the supplementary eye field (SEF) of monkeys performing a gambling task, where they had to use subjective criteria for placing bets. We found neural signals in the SEF that explicitly represent choice confidence independent from reward expectation. This confidence signal appeared after the choice and diminished before the choice outcome. Most of this neuronal activity was negatively correlated with confidence, and was strongest in trials on which the monkey spontaneously withdrew his choice. Such confidence-related activity indicates that the SEF not only guides saccade selection, but also evaluates the likelihood that the choice was optimal. This internal evaluation influences decisions concerning the willingness to bear later costs that follow from the choice or to avoid them. More generally, our findings indicate that choice confidence is an integral component of all forms of decision-making, whether they are based on perceptual evidence or on value estimations. PMID:25750256

  10. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  11. Recognition confidence under violated and confirmed memory expectations

    PubMed Central

    Jaeger, Antonio; Cox, Justin C.; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2011-01-01

    Our memory experiences typically covary with those of the others’ around us, and on average, an item is more likely to be familiar than not, if a companion recommends it as such. Although it would be ideal if observers could use the external recommendations of others as statistical priors during recognition decisions, it is currently unclear how or if they do so. Furthermore, understanding the sensitivity of recognition judgments to such external cues is critical for understanding memory conformity and eyewitness suggestibility phenomena. To address this we examined recognition accuracy and confidence following cues from an external source (e.g., “Likely old”) that forecast the likely status of upcoming memory probes. Three regularities emerged. First, hit and correction rejection rates expectedly fell when subjects were invalidly versus validly cued. Second, hit confidence was generally higher than correct rejection confidence, regardless of cue validity. Finally, and most noteworthy, cue validity interacted with judgment confidence such that validity heavily influenced the confidence of correct rejections, but had no discernable influence on the confidence of hits. Bootstrap informed Monte Carlo simulation supported a dual process recognition model under which familiarity and recollection processes counteract to heavily dampen the influence of external cues on average reported confidence. A third experiment tested this model using source memory. As predicted, because source memory is heavily governed by contextual recollection, cue validity again did not affect confidence, although as with recognition, it clearly altered accuracy. PMID:21967231

  12. Feedback Dependence Among Low Confidence Preadolescent Boys and Girls.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Michael J.; Corbin, Charles B.

    1988-01-01

    Investigation of differences between male and female students' reactions to receiving or not receiving performance feedback indicated that both sexes showed lower self-confidence when they did not receive feedback and that lack of self-confidence impaired the performance of males more than females. Participants were 111 fifth- and sixth-grade…

  13. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  14. An Application of the Poisson Race Model to Confidence Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merkle, Edgar C.; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2006-01-01

    In tasks as diverse as stock market predictions and jury deliberations, a person's feelings of confidence in the appropriateness of different choices often impact that person's final choice. The current study examines the mathematical modeling of confidence calibration in a simple dual-choice task. Experiments are motivated by an accumulator…

  15. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  16. Development of Confidence in Child Behavior Management through Role Playing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kress, Gerard C., Jr.; Ehrlichs, Melvin A.

    1990-01-01

    In a preclinical course in pediatric dentistry, 76 students were taught child behavior management through role playing of 7-10 common management situations. Pre- and postcourse measures of student confidence found that, although older students were more confident, all gained significantly from the training. Other student characteristics were also…

  17. A Note on Confidence Interval Estimation and Margin of Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilliland, Dennis; Melfi, Vince

    2010-01-01

    Confidence interval estimation is a fundamental technique in statistical inference. Margin of error is used to delimit the error in estimation. Dispelling misinterpretations that teachers and students give to these terms is important. In this note, we give examples of the confusion that can arise in regard to confidence interval estimation and…

  18. A (revised) confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaubaillon, J.

    2016-01-01

    A confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers is presented. The goal is to provide users with information regarding the way the forecasting is performed, so several degrees of confidence is achieved. This paper presents the meaning of the index coding system.

  19. How trust in institutions and organizations builds general consumer confidence in the safety of food: a decomposition of effects.

    PubMed

    de Jonge, J; van Trijp, J C M; van der Lans, I A; Renes, R J; Frewer, L J

    2008-09-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between general consumer confidence in the safety of food and consumer trust in institutions and organizations. More specifically, using a decompositional regression analysis approach, the extent to which the strength of the relationship between trust and general confidence is dependent upon a particular food chain actor (for example, food manufacturers) is assessed. In addition, the impact of specific subdimensions of trust, such as openness, on consumer confidence are analyzed, as well as interaction effects of actors and subdimensions of trust. The results confirm previous findings, which indicate that a higher level of trust is associated with a higher level of confidence. However, the results from the current study extend on previous findings by disentangling the effects that determine the strength of this relationship into specific components associated with the different actors, the different trust dimensions, and specific combinations of actors and trust dimensions. The results show that trust in food manufacturers influences general confidence more than trust in other food chain actors, and that care is the most important trust dimension. However, the contribution of a particular trust dimension in enhancing general confidence is actor-specific, suggesting that different actors should focus on different trust dimensions when the purpose is to enhance consumer confidence in food safety. Implications for the development of communication strategies that are designed to regain or maintain consumer confidence in the safety of food are discussed. PMID:18450326

  20. Pre-competitive confidence, coping, and subjective performance in sport.

    PubMed

    Levy, A R; Nicholls, A R; Polman, R C J

    2011-10-01

    The primary aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between confidence and subjective performance in addition to exploring whether coping mediated this relationship. A sample of 414 athletes completed a measure of confidence before performance. Athletes also completed a measure of coping and subjective performance after competing. Correlational findings revealed that confidence was positively and significantly associated with subjective performance. Furthermore, mediational analysis found that coping partly mediated this relationship. In particular, task-oriented coping (i.e., mental imagery) and disengagement-oriented coping (i.e., resignation) had positive and negative mediational effects, respectively. Additionally, athletes who employed mental imagery generally coped more effectively than those using resignation. These findings imply mental imagery has the potential not only to improve confidence, but also subsequent performance, while resignation coping may have the opposite effect. Overall, these results lend some credence to Vealey's integrated sports confidence model. PMID:20459476

  1. Pancreas Transplantation: An Alarming Crisis in Confidence.

    PubMed

    Stratta, R J; Gruessner, A C; Odorico, J S; Fridell, J A; Gruessner, R W G

    2016-09-01

    In the past decade, the annual number of pancreas transplantations performed in the United States has steadily declined. From 2004 to 2011, the overall number of simultaneous pancreas-kidney (SPK) transplantations in the United States declined by 10%, whereas the decreases in pancreas after kidney (PAK) and pancreas transplant alone (PTA) procedures were 55% and 34%, respectively. Paradoxically, this has occurred in the setting of improvements in graft and patient survival outcomes and transplanting higher-risk patients. Only 11 centers in the United States currently perform ≥20 pancreas transplantations per year, and most centers perform <5 pancreas transplantations annually; many do not perform PAKs or PTAs. This national trend in decreasing numbers of pancreas transplantations is related to a number of factors including lack of a primary referral source, improvements in diabetes care and management, changing donor and recipient considerations, inadequate training opportunities, and increasing risk aversion because of regulatory scrutiny. A national initiative is needed to "reinvigorate" SPK and PAK procedures as preferred transplantation options for appropriately selected uremic patients taking insulin regardless of C-peptide levels or "type" of diabetes. Moreover, many patients may benefit from PTAs because all categories of pancreas transplantation are not only life enhancing but also life extending procedures. PMID:27232750

  2. The Effect of Type of Podcasts and Learning Styles on Language Proficiency and Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Wei Qiang; Klein, James D.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the effect of type of podcasts and learning styles on speaking, listening, and confidence when college used podcasts for learning Chinese. It focused on college students enrolled in a beginning-level Chinese course at a large university in the southeastern United States. Findings indicated that listening to grammar podcasts…

  3. Assessing Pre-Service Teacher Attitudes and Skills with the Technology Integration Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Jeremy

    2009-01-01

    As technology integration continues to gain importance, preservice teachers must develop higher levels of confidence and proficiency in using technology in their classrooms (Kay, 2006). The acceptance of the National Educational Technology Standards for Teachers (NETS-T) by National Council for Accreditation of Teacher Education (NCATE) has…

  4. Instructor Gender and Student Confidence in the Sciences: A Need for More Role Models?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cotner, Sehoya; Ballen, Cissy; Brooks, D. Christopher; Moore, Randy

    2011-01-01

    Women are underrepresented in most scientific disciplines, with achievement gaps expanding throughout the career trajectory. Gender differences in perceptions of scientific competence are evident at an early age. We examined the extent to which college-level instructor gender affects the confidence of males and females in their scientific…

  5. Can Confidence Come Too Soon? Collective Efficacy, Conflict and Group Performance over Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goncalo, Jack A.; Polman, Evan; Maslach, Christina

    2010-01-01

    Groups with a strong sense of collective efficacy set more challenging goals, persist in the face of difficulty, and are ultimately more likely to succeed than groups who do not share this belief. Given the many advantages that may accrue to groups who are confident, it would be logical to advise groups to build a high level of collective efficacy…

  6. The Effects of Questions and Anxiety on Attention, Question Confidence, and Metacognition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fasko, Daniel, Jr.; Skidmore, Ronald

    The effects of questions of different cognitive levels were investigated in four undergraduate classes involving a total of 80 students. Previous research suggested that questions may distract students from a lecture, and that students felt more confident about responding accurately to low-order questions. These results do not support previous…

  7. Tracking Preservice Kindergarten Teachers' Development of Singing Skills and Confidence: An Applied Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neokleous, Rania

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to (a) examine the effects of a music methods course on the singing skills of preservice kindergarten teachers, (b) document the nature and development of their skills during the course, and (c) trace any changes in their confidence levels toward singing as a result of the course. As an applied study which was carried…

  8. Canadian and Australian Pre-Service Teachers' Use, Confidence and Success in Various Behaviour Management Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reupert, Andrea; Woodcock, Stuart

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was twofold; first, to identify Australian and Canadian pre-service teachers' use, confidence and success in various behaviour management strategies, and second, to identify significant differences between the two cohorts. Pooled data indicated that pre-service teachers most frequently employ low level corrective…

  9. Increasing Confidence to Decrease Reticence: A Qualitative Action Research in Second Language Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doqaruni, Vahid Rahmani

    2015-01-01

    This study reports on an action research on increasing the English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students' confidence in speaking. Participants involved in this study were 16 male university students who had an upper-intermediate level of English. Extra speaking activities were incorporated into the classroom for 8 successive weeks. Insights into…

  10. Confidence in Pass/Fail Decisions for Computer Adaptive and Paper and Pencil Examinations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergstrom, Betty A.; Lunz, Mary E.

    The level of confidence in pass/fail decisions obtained with computer adaptive tests (CATs) was compared to decisions based on paper-and-pencil tests. Subjects included 645 medical technology students from 238 educational programs across the country. The tests used in this study constituted part of the subjects' review for the certification…

  11. Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

    2010-01-01

    A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

  12. Confidence in, and self-rating of, driving ability among older drivers.

    PubMed

    Marottoli, R A; Richardson, E D

    1998-05-01

    Active drivers (n = 125) in a representative cohort of older individuals age 77 years and older in New Haven, Connecticut were interviewed. Confidence in different driving situations, self-rating of driving ability, and driving patterns were assessed during these in-person interviews. A history of crashes, moving violations and being stopped by police was available for approximately the past 6 years. Concurrent driving performance was assessed in a subsample (n = 35). Analyses focused on determining the relationship of confidence and self-rating of driving ability to: (1) each other; (2) driving patterns; (3) adverse driving events; and (4) driving performance. All participants rated themselves as being average or above average drivers compared to others their age, with the majority rating themselves as above average. Individuals who drove more miles and more frequently were more likely to rate themselves better drivers than same-age peers. Individuals who rated themselves as "much better" drivers than their peers tended to have higher confidence levels than those who rated themselves a "little bit better" or the "same" as other drivers. On-road driving performance and history of adverse events were not associated with self-ratings of driving ability. Confidence was associated with driving frequency and mileage, but not age or education. Although men were more likely to drive under risky conditions, for those conditions in which each drove, men and women were equally confident. No relationship was found between confidence and adverse driving events or driving performance. Understanding the relationship of confidence and self-rating of driving ability to driving patterns, adverse events and driving performance may provide additional insights into identifying older drivers at increased risk for problems and formulating intervention strategies to help lower risk. PMID:9663292

  13. Sea Level Rise Scenarios and Predicted Impacts on New Hampshire's Hampton-Seabrook Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haile, R.; Hale, S. R.; Rock, B. N.

    2008-12-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Environmental Protection Agency, and the Union of Concerned Scientist, coastal areas could experience a rise in sea level from 0.3m (conservative) to 6m (extreme). Due in part to global warming, over the last 100 years mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea level has risen approximately 0.1m more than the average global rise. GIS models illustrating future sea level rise (SLR) projections were generated to assess the potential impact on beaches and estuaries of Hampton and Seabrook, New Hampshire (NH). Limited, but important, tidal wetlands are particularly at risk from rising sea levels. A raster unsupervised landcover classification and a Digital Elevation Model of the southeastern NH coastal region were overlain in ARC/GIS v. 9.0. Sea level rise predictions greater than 1.2m will result in the inundation of greater than 50 percent of the emergent area of the Hampton/Seabrook estuary and urban development fringing the estuary will be prone to greater flooding from storm surges and high tides. An approximate 6m rise in sea level will inundate greater than 95 percent of the Hampton-Seabrook tidal marsh and greater than 95 percent of New Hampshire's existing sand dunes.

  14. Regression models of monthly water-level change in and near the Closed Basin Division of the San Luis Valley, south-central Colorado

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watts, Kenneth R.

    1995-01-01

    regression models. These models also include an autoregressive term to account for serial correlation in the residuals. The adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2) for the 46 regression models range from 0.08 to 0.89, and the standard errors of estimate range from 0.034 to 2.483 feet. The regression models of monthly water- level change can be used to evaluate whether post-1985 monthly water-level change values at the selected observation wells are within the 95-percent confidence limits of predicted monthly water-level change.

  15. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  16. Public eyewitness confidence ratings can differ from those held privately.

    PubMed

    Shaw, J S; Zerr, T K; Woythaler, K A

    2001-04-01

    Despite much research on eyewitness confidence, we know very little about whether confidence ratings given in public might differ from those held privately. This study tested a prediction derived from self-presentation theory that eyewitnesses will give lower confidence ratings in public when there is a possibility of their account being contradicted by other witnesses as compared to when they report their confidence in private. In groups of 3 or 4 people, 96 participants watched a videotape of a simulated robbery and then answered 16 forced-choice questions about details from the videotape. In half of the experimental sessions, the participants shared their answers and confidence ratings aloud with the other participants (public condition), and in the other half, the answers and ratings were not shared (private). As predicted, confidence ratings were significantly lower in the public condition than in the private condition, but the privacy manipulation had no effect on response accuracy. These results are consistent with a self-presentation explanation, and they highlight the need to examine public confidence ratings more thoroughly. PMID:11419379

  17. A model for improving student confidence and experience in diagnostic sample collection and interpretation.

    PubMed

    Williams, Laurel E; Nettifee-Osborne, Julie A; Johnson, Jeffrey L

    2006-01-01

    Confidence and proficiency in diagnosing and treating a variety of diseases is of obvious importance to veterinary students. Traditional teaching methods relying on live-animal laboratories or teaching-hospital cases may not provide the breadth and depth of experience necessary to promote optimal development of confidence and skills. These settings also raise concerns about expense, about animal welfare when animals are used in teaching laboratories, and about the stress and potential risks associated with client-owned pets in the teaching hospital. A one-week course implemented in our veterinary curriculum provides the opportunity for students to develop self-assurance and experience in sample collection and interpretation skills in a realistic, clinical-model setting. This course provides students with significantly improved levels of confidence when performing procedures and interpreting results from a variety of procedures and helps prepare them to become clinicians entering the practice of veterinary medicine. PMID:16767653

  18. Development of 3-D lithostratigraphic and confidence models at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buesch, D.C.; Nelson, J.E.; Dickerson, R.P.; Spengler, R.W.

    1993-01-01

    Computerized three-dimensional geologic models of potential high-level nuclear waste repositories such as Yucca Moutain, Nevada, are important for visualizing the complex interplay of (1) thickness and facies variations in lithostratigraphic units and (2) the disruption of these units by faults. The concept of a 'model of confidence' in the lithostratigraphic model is introduced to show where data are located versus regions where interpolations are included. Models of confidence can be based on (1) expert judgment, (2) geostatistical analysis, or (3) a simplified combination of these two methods. Linking of lithostratigraphic models and models of confidence provide guidelines for future characterization and modeling activities, as well as for design and construction of the Exploratory Studies Facility.

  19. Does MRI Increase the Diagnostic Confidence of Physicians in an Outpatient Memory Clinic

    PubMed Central

    Boelaarts, Leo; Scheltens, Philip; de Jonghe, Jos

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aim Data showing the usefulness of MRI to improve the accuracy of the diagnostic process in cognitive disorders were derived from studies in tertiary referral centers. MRI is widely used as a diagnostic tool in everyday practice, but it is unknown what the actual added value of MRI is. We studied the usefulness of MRI in the diagnostic process by measuring the change of confidence of the physician. Methods Physicians indicated confidence in their diagnosis before and after presentation of MR images using a visual analogue scale from 0-100%. Results Use of MRI increased the level of confidence by 3% in experienced clinicians and by 9% in inexperienced physicians. In 2/125 cases, MRI showed an unexpected finding. Conclusion MRI is a useful diagnostic tool in everyday practice of diagnosing cognitive disorders. PMID:27489558

  20. Response confidence for emotion perception in schizophrenia using a Continuous Facial Sequence Task.

    PubMed

    Moritz, Steffen; Woznica, Aneta; Andreou, Christina; Köther, Ulf

    2012-12-30

    Deficits in emotion perception and overconfidence in errors are well-documented in schizophrenia but have not been examined concurrently. The present study aimed to fill this gap. Twenty-three schizophrenia patients and twenty-nine healthy subjects underwent a Continuous Facial Sequence Task (CFST). The CFST comprised two blocks: a female (1st block) and a male protagonist (2nd block) displayed the six basic emotions postulated by Ekman as well as two more complex mental states and a neutral expression. Participants were first asked to identify the affect displayed by the performer and then to judge their response confidence. No group differences emerged regarding overall emotion perception. Follow-up analyses showed that patients were less correct in detecting some negative emotions but performed better for neutral or positive emotions. Regarding confidence, incorrect decisions in patients were associated with higher confidence than in controls (statistical trend level, moderate effect size). Patients displayed significant overconfidence in errors for negative emotions. In addition, patients were more prone to high-confident errors for emotions that were displayed in weak emotional intensity. While the study supports the view that the examination of confidence adds unique information to our understanding of social cognition, several methodological limitations render its findings preliminary. PMID:22920792

  1. Student Knowledge and Confidence in an Elective Clinical Toxicology Course Using Active-Learning Techniques

    PubMed Central

    Macias-Moriarity, Liliairica Z.

    2014-01-01

    Objective. To measure changes in students’ knowledge and confidence scores after completing an elective clinical toxicology course in an accelerated doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) program. Design. Various active-learning techniques were used to create a learner-centered environment. Approximately two-thirds of the course used student-led presentations. Some of those not presenting were assigned to be evaluators, responsible for asking the presenter a question or writing quiz questions based on the presented material. Other learner-centered activities included weekly quizzes and discussions at the conclusion of each presented topic. Assessment. A test instrument designed to measure students’ knowledge and associated level of confidence on each item was administered at the beginning and end of the course. Students’ knowledge and confidence scores increased significantly from pretest to posttest. Conclusions. Students’ increased confidence and knowledge scores were well correlated after course completion, indicating students were better able to self-assess these areas. These findings suggest that confidence could be an additional measure of students' metacognitive skill development. PMID:24954935

  2. Estimation of confidence intervals for federal waterfowl harvest surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geissler, P.H.

    1990-01-01

    I developed methods of estimating confidence intervals for the federal waterfowl harvest surveys conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). I estimated flyway harvest confidence intervals for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) (95% CI are .+-. 8% of the estimate). Canada geese (Branta canadensis) (.+-. 11%), black ducks (Anas rubripes) (.+-. 16%), canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) (.+-. 32%), snow geese (Chen caerulescens) (.+-. 43%), and brant (Branta bernicla) (.+-. 46%). Differences between annual estimate of 10, 13, 22, 42, 43, and 58% could be detected with mallards, Canada geese, black ducks, canvasbacks, snow geese, and brant, respectively. Estimated confidence intervals for state harvests tended to be much larger than those for the flyway estimates.

  3. Factors that influence physicians' and medical students' confidence in counseling patients about physical activity.

    PubMed

    Stanford, Fatima Cody; Durkin, Martin W; Stallworth, James Rast; Powell, Caroline Keller; Poston, Mary Beth; Blair, Steven N

    2014-06-01

    Less than half of US adults and two-thirds of US high school students do not meet current US guidelines for physical activity. We examined which factors promoted physicians' and medical students' confidence in counseling patients about physical activity. We established an online exercise survey targeting attending physicians, resident and fellow physicians, and medical students to determine their current level of physical activity and confidence in counseling patients about physical activity. We compared their personal level of physical activity with the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines of the US Department of Health and Human Services (USDHHS). We administered a survey in 2009 and 2010 that used the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. A total of 1,949 individuals responded to the survey, of whom 1,751 (i.e., 566 attending physicians, 138 fellow physicians, 806 resident physicians, and 215 medical students) were included in this analysis. After adjusting for their BMI, the odds that physicians and medical students who met USDHHS guidelines for vigorous activity would express confidence in their ability to provide exercise counseling were more than twice that of physicians who did not meet these guidelines. Individuals who were overweight were less likely to be confident than those with normal BMI, after adjusting for whether they met the vigorous exercise guidelines. Physicians with obesity were even less likely to express confidence in regards to exercise counseling. We conclude that physicians and medical students who had a normal BMI and met vigorous USDHHS guidelines were more likely to feel confident about counseling their patients about physical activity. Our findings suggest that graduate medical school education should focus on health promotion in their students, as this will likely lead to improved health behaviors in their students' patient populations. PMID:24682887

  4. Adverse Outcome Pathways for Regulatory Applications: Examination of Four Case Studies With Different Degrees of Completeness and Scientific Confidence.

    PubMed

    Perkins, Edward J; Antczak, Philipp; Burgoon, Lyle; Falciani, Francesco; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gutsell, Steve; Hodges, Geoff; Kienzler, Aude; Knapen, Dries; McBride, Mary; Willett, Catherine

    2015-11-01

    Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) offer a pathway-based toxicological framework to support hazard assessment and regulatory decision-making. However, little has been discussed about the scientific confidence needed, or how complete a pathway should be, before use in a specific regulatory application. Here we review four case studies to explore the degree of scientific confidence and extent of completeness (in terms of causal events) that is required for an AOP to be useful for a specific purpose in a regulatory application: (i) Membrane disruption (Narcosis) leading to respiratory failure (low confidence), (ii) Hepatocellular proliferation leading to cancer (partial pathway, moderate confidence), (iii) Covalent binding to proteins leading to skin sensitization (high confidence), and (iv) Aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish (high confidence). Partially complete AOPs with unknown molecular initiating events, such as 'Hepatocellular proliferation leading to cancer', were found to be valuable. We demonstrate that scientific confidence in these pathways can be increased though the use of unconventional information (eg, computational identification of potential initiators). AOPs at all levels of confidence can contribute to specific uses. A significant statistical or quantitative relationship between events and/or the adverse outcome relationships is a common characteristic of AOPs, both incomplete and complete, that have specific regulatory uses. For AOPs to be useful in a regulatory context they must be at least as useful as the tools that regulators currently possess, or the techniques currently employed by regulators. PMID:26500288

  5. Development and psychometric evaluation of scales to measure professional confidence in manual medicine: a Rasch measurement approach

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Health professionals in athletic training, chiropractic, osteopathy, and physiotherapy fields, require high-level knowledge and skills in their assessment and management of patients. This is important when communicating with patients and applying a range of manual procedures. Prior to embarking on professional practice, it is imperative to acquire optimal situation-specific levels of self-confidence for a beginner practitioner in these areas. In order to foster this professional self-confidence within the higher education context, it is necessary to have valid and reliable scales that can measure and track levels and how they change. This study reports on the development and psychometric analysis of two new scales, Patient Communication Confidence Scale (PCCS) and the Clinical Skills Confidence Scale (CSCS), to measure confidence in these two areas for students in manual medicine programs. The Rasch measurement model was used to guide the development of the scales and establish their psychometric properties. Methods The responses to 269 returned questionnaires over two occasions were submitted to psychometric analysis, with various aspects of the scales examined including: item thresholds; item fit; Differential Item Functioning; targeting; item locations; item dependencies; and reliability. To provide further evidence of validity, scores were correlated with two existing valid scales. Results Analyses showed that the scales provided valid and reliable measures of confidence for this sample of persons. High Person Separation Indices (0.96 for PCCS; 0.93 for SCSC) provided statistical evidence of reliability, meaning the scales are able to discriminate amongst persons with different levels of confidence. For the PCCS, item categories were operating as required, and for the CSCS only two items’ thresholds were slightly disordered. Three tests of fit revealed good fit to the model (indicating the internal consistency of both scales) and results of the

  6. Erratum: Action-Specific Disruption of Perceptual Confidence

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Fleming, S. M., Maniscalco, B., Ko, Y., Amendi, N., Ro, T., & Lau, H. (2015). Action-specific disruption of perceptual confidence. Psychological Science, 26, 89–98. (Original DOI: 10.1177/0956797614557697) PMID:25814500

  7. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-13

    ... Impact Statement AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft generic environmental impact... issuing for public comment the draft generic environmental impact statement (DGEIS), NUREG-2157, ``Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement,'' that forms the regulatory basis for the...

  8. Improved reproducibility by assuring confidence in measurements in biomedical research.

    PubMed

    Plant, Anne L; Locascio, Laurie E; May, Willie E; Gallagher, Patrick D

    2014-09-01

    ‘Irreproducibility’ is symptomatic of a broader challenge in measurement in biomedical research. From the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) perspective of rigorous metrology, reproducibility is only one aspect of establishing confidence in measurements. Appropriate controls, reference materials, statistics and informatics are required for a robust measurement process. Research is required to establish these tools for biological measurements, which will lead to greater confidence in research results. PMID:25166868

  9. The self-assessment of confidence, by one vocational trainee

    PubMed Central

    Leonard, Colin

    1979-01-01

    A list of important topics in general practice was constructed and a trainee was asked to indicate his confidence about each topic on a one to five scale. Repeated use showed different confidence ratings by the same trainee, and an attempt was made to correlate factual knowledge by using a multiple choice questionnaire. Despite important limitations, which are described, this method may be useful in identifying suitable topics for teaching during the trainee year. PMID:541789

  10. 9 CFR 83.6 - Testing requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... document a 2-year history of negative testing for VHS virus, can conduct testing at a sampling level to... virus can conduct testing at a sampling level to provide a 95 percent confidence level of detecting a 10... least 3 months between tests. (iii) Such facilities must be on a secure water source, and document...

  11. 9 CFR 83.6 - Testing requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... document a 2-year history of negative testing for VHS virus, can conduct testing at a sampling level to... virus can conduct testing at a sampling level to provide a 95 percent confidence level of detecting a 10... least 3 months between tests. (iii) Such facilities must be on a secure water source, and document...

  12. Lucky Guess or Knowledge: A Cross-Sectional Study Using the Bland and Altman Analysis to Compare Confidence-Based Testing of Pharmacological Knowledge in 3rd and 5th Year Medical Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kampmeyer, Daniela; Matthes, Jan; Herzig, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Multiple-choice-questions are common in medical examinations, but guessing biases assessment results. Confidence-based-testing (CBT) integrates indicated confidence levels. It has been suggested that correctness of and confidence in an answer together indicate knowledge levels thus determining the quality of a resulting decision. We used a CBT…

  13. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.

    PubMed

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-11-30

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models. PMID:26112765

  14. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    PubMed

    Löwer, Martin; Renard, Bernhard Y; de Graaf, Jos; Wagner, Meike; Paret, Claudia; Kneip, Christoph; Türeci, Ozlem; Diken, Mustafa; Britten, Cedrik; Kreiter, Sebastian; Koslowski, Michael; Castle, John C; Sahin, Ugur

    2012-01-01

    Next generation sequencing (NGS) has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR), to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence) and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence). All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50), none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set. PMID:23028300

  15. Confidence-based Somatic Mutation Evaluation and Prioritization

    PubMed Central

    de Graaf, Jos; Wagner, Meike; Paret, Claudia; Kneip, Christoph; Türeci, Özlem; Diken, Mustafa; Britten, Cedrik; Kreiter, Sebastian; Koslowski, Michael; Castle, John C.; Sahin, Ugur

    2012-01-01

    Next generation sequencing (NGS) has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR), to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence) and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence). All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50), none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set. PMID:23028300

  16. Students' Confidence in the Ability to Transfer Basic Math Skills in Introductory Physics and Chemistry Courses at a Community College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Reginald

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the confidence levels that community college students have in transferring basic math skills to science classes, as well as any factors that influence their confidence levels. This study was conducted with 196 students at a community college in central Mississippi. The study was conducted during the month…

  17. The Direct Integral Method for Confidence Intervals for the Ratio of Two Location Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yanqing; Wang, Suojin; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2015-01-01

    Summary In a relative risk analysis of colorectal caner on nutrition intake scores across genders, we show that, surprisingly, when comparing the relative risks for men and women based on the index of a weighted sum of various nutrition scores, the problem reduces to forming a confidence interval for the ratio of two (asymptotically) normal random variables. The latter is an old problem, with a substantial literature. However, our simulation results suggest that existing methods often either give inaccurate coverage probabilities or have a positive probability to produce confidence intervals with infinite length. Motivated by such a problem, we develop a new methodology which we call the Direct Integral Method for Ratios (DIMER), which, unlike the other methods, is based directly on the distribution of the ratio. In simulations, we compare this method to many others. These simulations show that, generally, DIMER more closely achieves the nominal confidence level, and in those cases that the other methods achieve the nominal levels, DIMER has comparable confidence interval lengths. The methodology is then applied to a real data set, and with follow up simulations. PMID:25939421

  18. A method for establishing absolute full-energy peak efficiency and its confidence interval for HPGe detectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizwan, U.; Chester, A.; Domingo, T.; Starosta, K.; Williams, J.; Voss, P.

    2015-12-01

    A method is proposed for establishing the absolute efficiency calibration of a HPGe detector including the confidence interval in the energy range of 79.6-3451.2 keV. The calibrations were accomplished with the 133Ba, 60Co, 56Co and 152Eu point-like radioactive sources with only the 60Co source being activity calibrated to an accuracy of 2% at the 90% confidence level. All data sets measured from activity calibrated and uncalibrated sources were fit simultaneously using the linearized least squares method. The proposed fit function accounts for scaling of the data taken with activity uncalibrated sources to the data taken with the high accuracy activity calibrated source. The confidence interval for the fit was found analytically using the covariance matrix. Accuracy of the fit was below 3.5% at the 90% confidence level in the 79.6-3451.2 keV energy range.

  19. Pediatricians' Confidence and Behaviors in Smoking Cessation Promotion and Knowledge of the Smoking Cessation Trust

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Katharine; Kisely, Steve; Gastanaduy, Mariella; Urrego, Fernando

    2016-01-01

    Background: Secondhand smoke exposure increases morbidity and mortality in children. Thirty-one percent of caregivers who accompany their children to the Ochsner Health Center for Children smoke, and none uses the services of the Smoking Cessation Trust (SCT), a free smoking cessation program for eligible Louisiana residents who began smoking before 1988. The objective of this study was 2-fold: first, to assess and compare pediatricians' confidence and behaviors in regard to smoking cessation promotion with caregivers, and second, to determine pediatricians' knowledge and comfort level with the SCT. Methods: Pediatricians were given a questionnaire to assess 12 parameters regarding their confidence and practice when screening, counseling, and referring caregivers to smoking cessation programs. Results: Thirty-six questionnaires were administered, of which 27 were completed (75%). Only 7.41% of respondents had formal training in smoking cessation, 18.52% had never heard of the SCT, and 92.59% do not refer to the SCT. All the pediatrician respondents stated that they were confident in their ability to screen for secondhand smoke exposure, 62.96% were confident in providing counseling, and 44.44% were confident in offering referrals. Most pediatricians very often or always screened for secondhand smoke exposure (77.78%); however, only 25.93% counseled smoking caregivers to quit, and only 11.11% provided a smoking cessation referral. Pediatricians stated that they were confident to screen, counsel, and refer caregivers; however, they were significantly less likely to report actually screening for secondhand smoke exposure (P<0.05), counseling (P<0.05), and referring caregivers (P<0.05). Conclusion: Efforts should be made to increase the rate by which pediatricians provide smoking cessation, counseling, and referrals to the SCT through education and training. PMID:27303221

  20. Comparison of health confidence in rural, suburban and urban areas in the UK and the USA: a secondary analysis

    PubMed Central

    Haven, Kristen; Celaya, Martín F; Pierson, Jaclyn; Weisskopf, Aron J; MacKinnon, Neil J

    2013-01-01

    Objective Confidence in healthcare may influence the patients’ utilisation of healthcare resources and perceptions of healthcare quality. We sought to determine whether self-reported confidence in healthcare differed between the UK and the USA, as well as by rurality or urbanicity. Design A secondary analysis of a subset of survey questions regarding self-reported confidence in healthcare from the 2010 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey. Setting Telephone survey of participants from the UK and the USA. Participants Our final analysis included 1511 UK residents (688 rural, 446 suburban, 372 urban, 5 uncategorised) and 2501 US residents (536 rural, 1294 suburban, 671 urban). Outcome measures Questions assessed respondents’ confidence in the effectiveness and affordability of the treatment. We compared survey outcomes from these questions between, and within, the two regions and among, and within, residence types (rural, suburban and urban). Results Significant differences were found in self-reported confidence in healthcare between the UK and US, among residence types, and between the two regions within residence types. Reported levels were higher in the UK. Within regions, significant differences by residence type were found for the US, but not the UK. Within the US, suburban respondents had the highest self-reported confidence in healthcare. Conclusions Significant differences exist between the UK and US in confidence in healthcare. In the US, but not in the UK, self-reported confidence is related to residence type. Within countries, significant differences by residence type were found for the US, but not the UK. Our findings warrant the examination of causes for relative confidence levels in healthcare between regions and among US residence types. PMID:23645916

  1. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  2. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior. PMID:26869840

  3. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  4. Assessment of biomedical knowledge according to confidence criteria.

    PubMed

    Jilani, Ines; Grabar, Natalia; Meneton, Pierre; Jaulent, Marie-Christine

    2008-01-01

    The characterisation of biomedical knowledge taking into account the degree of confidence expressed in texts, is an important issue in the biomedical domain. The authors of scientific texts use grammatical and lexical devices to qualify their assertions. We named these markers of qualification "confidence markers". We present here the results of our efforts to collect confidence markers from full texts and abstracts, to classify them on the basis of semantics, and their use within our knowledge extraction system. We propose in this study, an implementation of these confidence markers for functional annotation of the human gene Apolipoprotein (APOE) thought to be involved in Alzheimer's disease. As a result, we obtain, through the extraction system, triplets: (G, F, PMID), in which G is the gene APOE, F is its function found in texts and the PMID of the article from which this knowledge was extracted. Moreover, a spatial 3D of the triplets, relative to each other, is proposed depending on their respective confidence degree. PMID:18487731

  5. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience—approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain—to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This “emotor” control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on “confidence.” Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior. PMID:26869840

  6. Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

    PubMed Central

    Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

  7. New graduate nurses' experiences about lack of professional confidence.

    PubMed

    Ortiz, Jennifer

    2016-07-01

    Professional confidence is an essential trait for new graduate nurses to possess in order to provide quality patient care in today's complex hospital setting. However, many new graduates are entering the workforce without it and this remains to be explored. This study describes how new graduate nurses accounted for their lack of professional confidence upon entry into professional practice and how it developed during their first year of practice in the hospital setting. Two face-to-face, individual interviews of 12 participants were utilized to capture the lived experiences of new graduate nurses to gain an understanding of this phenomenon. After manual content analysis seven themes emerged: communication is huge, making mistakes, disconnect between school and practice, independence, relationship building, positive feedback is important, and gaining experience. The findings indicate that the development of professional confidence is a dynamic process that occurs throughout the first year of practice. New graduate nurses must experience both positive and negative circumstances in order to move toward the attainment of professional confidence. Knowing this, nurse educators in academia as well as in the hospital setting may better support the development of professional confidence both before and during the first year of practice. PMID:27428687

  8. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  9. Confidence to cook vegetables and the buying habits of Australian households.

    PubMed

    Winkler, Elisabeth; Turrell, Gavin

    2009-10-01

    Cooking skills are emphasized in nutrition promotion but their distribution among population subgroups and relationship to dietary behavior is researched by few population-based studies. This study examined the relationships between confidence to cook, sociodemographic characteristics, and household vegetable purchasing. This cross-sectional study of 426 randomly selected households in Brisbane, Australia, used a validated questionnaire to assess household vegetable purchasing habits and the confidence to cook of the person who most often prepares food for these households. The mutually adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of lacking confidence to cook were assessed across a range of demographic subgroups using multiple logistic regression models. Similarly, mutually adjusted mean vegetable purchasing scores were calculated using multiple linear regression for different population groups and for respondents with varying confidence levels. Lacking confidence to cook using a variety of techniques was more common among respondents with less education (OR 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 10.75) and was less common among respondents who lived with minors (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.53) and other adults (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.78). Lack of confidence to prepare vegetables was associated with being male (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.24 to 4.08), low education (OR 6.60; 95% CI 2.08 to 20.91), lower household income (OR 2.98; 95% CI 1.02 to 8.72) and living with other adults (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.98). Households bought a greater variety of vegetables on a regular basis when the main chef was confident to prepare them (difference: 18.60; 95% CI 14.66 to 22.54), older (difference: 8.69; 95% CI 4.92 to 12.47), lived with at least one other adult (difference: 5.47; 95% CI 2.82 to 8.12) or at least one minor (difference: 2.86; 95% CI 0.17 to 5.55). Cooking skills may contribute to socioeconomic dietary differences, and may be a useful strategy for promoting fruit and vegetable

  10. An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick Charles

    1985-01-01

    An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

  11. Integration of multiple biological features yields high confidence human protein interactome.

    PubMed

    Karagoz, Kubra; Sevimoglu, Tuba; Arga, Kazim Yalcin

    2016-08-21

    The biological function of a protein is usually determined by its physical interaction with other proteins. Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are identified through various experimental methods and are stored in curated databases. The noisiness of the existing PPI data is evident, and it is essential that a more reliable data is generated. Furthermore, the selection of a set of PPIs at different confidence levels might be necessary for many studies. Although different methodologies were introduced to evaluate the confidence scores for binary interactions, a highly reliable, almost complete PPI network of Homo sapiens is not proposed yet. The quality and coverage of human protein interactome need to be improved to be used in various disciplines, especially in biomedicine. In the present work, we propose an unsupervised statistical approach to assign confidence scores to PPIs of H. sapiens. To achieve this goal PPI data from six different databases were collected and a total of 295,288 non-redundant interactions between 15,950 proteins were acquired. The present scoring system included the context information that was assigned to PPIs derived from eight biological attributes. A high confidence network, which included 147,923 binary interactions between 13,213 proteins, had scores greater than the cutoff value of 0.80, for which sensitivity, specificity, and coverage were 94.5%, 80.9%, and 82.8%, respectively. We compared the present scoring method with others for evaluation. Reducing the noise inherent in experimental PPIs via our scoring scheme increased the accuracy significantly. As it was demonstrated through the assessment of process and cancer subnetworks, this study allows researchers to construct and analyze context-specific networks via valid PPI sets and one can easily achieve subnetworks around proteins of interest at a specified confidence level. PMID:27196966

  12. Finite sample pointwise confidence intervals for a survival distribution with right-censored data.

    PubMed

    Fay, Michael P; Brittain, Erica H

    2016-07-20

    We review and develop pointwise confidence intervals for a survival distribution with right-censored data for small samples, assuming only independence of censoring and survival. When there is no censoring, at each fixed time point, the problem reduces to making inferences about a binomial parameter. In this case, the recently developed beta product confidence procedure (BPCP) gives the standard exact central binomial confidence intervals of Clopper and Pearson. Additionally, the BPCP has been shown to be exact (gives guaranteed coverage at the nominal level) for progressive type II censoring and has been shown by simulation to be exact for general independent right censoring. In this paper, we modify the BPCP to create a 'mid-p' version, which reduces to the mid-p confidence interval for a binomial parameter when there is no censoring. We perform extensive simulations on both the standard and mid-p BPCP using a method of moments implementation that enforces monotonicity over time. All simulated scenarios suggest that the standard BPCP is exact. The mid-p BPCP, like other mid-p confidence intervals, has simulated coverage closer to the nominal level but may not be exact for all survival times, especially in very low censoring scenarios. In contrast, the two asymptotically-based approximations have lower than nominal coverage in many scenarios. This poor coverage is due to the extreme inflation of the lower error rates, although the upper limits are very conservative. Both the standard and the mid-p BPCP methods are available in our bpcp R package. Published 2016. This article is US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. PMID:26891706

  13. Confidence region estimation techniques for nonlinear regression :three case studies.

    SciTech Connect

    Swiler, Laura Painton (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Sullivan, Sean P. (University of Texas, Austin, TX); Stucky-Mack, Nicholas J. (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA); Roberts, Randall Mark; Vugrin, Kay White

    2005-10-01

    This work focuses on different methods to generate confidence regions for nonlinear parameter identification problems. Three methods for confidence region estimation are considered: a linear approximation method, an F-test method, and a Log-Likelihood method. Each of these methods are applied to three case studies. One case study is a problem with synthetic data, and the other two case studies identify hydraulic parameters in groundwater flow problems based on experimental well-test results. The confidence regions for each case study are analyzed and compared. Although the F-test and Log-Likelihood methods result in similar regions, there are differences between these regions and the regions generated by the linear approximation method for nonlinear problems. The differing results, capabilities, and drawbacks of all three methods are discussed.

  14. Does mood influence the realism of confidence judgments?

    PubMed

    Allwood, Carl Martin; Granhag, Pär Anders; Jonsson, Anna-Carin

    2002-07-01

    Previous research has shown that mood affects cognition, but the extent to which mood affects meta-cognitive judgments is a relatively over-looked issue. In the current study we investigated how mood influences the degree of realism in participants' confidence judgments (based on an episodic memory task). Using music and film in combination, we successfully induced an elated mood in half of the participants, but failed to induce a sad mood in the other half. In line with previous research, the participants in both conditions were overconfident in their judgments. However, and contrary to our prediction, our data indicated that there was no difference in the realism of the confidence between the conditions. When relating this result to previous research, our conclusion is that there is no, or very little, influence of mood of moderate intensity on the realism of confidence judgments. PMID:12184480

  15. Confidence as a Common Currency between Vision and Audition

    PubMed Central

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Le Corre, François; Mamassian, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The idea of a common currency underlying our choice behaviour has played an important role in sciences of behaviour, from neurobiology to psychology and economics. However, while it has been mainly investigated in terms of values, with a common scale on which goods would be evaluated and compared, the question of a common scale for subjective probabilities and confidence in particular has received only little empirical investigation so far. The present study extends previous work addressing this question, by showing that confidence can be compared across visual and auditory decisions, with the same precision as for the comparison of two trials within the same task. We discuss the possibility that confidence could serve as a common currency when describing our choices to ourselves and to others. PMID:26808061

  16. Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times.

    PubMed

    Weidemann, Christoph T; Kahana, Michael J

    2016-04-01

    Classification of stimuli into categories (such as 'old' and 'new' in tests of recognition memory or 'present' versus 'absent' in signal detection tasks) requires the mapping of internal signals to discrete responses. Introspective judgements about a given choice response are regularly employed in research, legal and clinical settings in an effort to measure the signal that is thought to be the basis of the classification decision. Correlations between introspective judgements and task performance suggest that such ratings often do convey information about internal states that are relevant for a given task, but well-known limitations of introspection call the fidelity of this information into question. We investigated to what extent response times can reveal information usually assessed with explicit confidence ratings. We quantitatively compared response times to confidence ratings in their ability to qualify recognition memory decisions and found convergent results suggesting that much of the information from confidence ratings can be obtained from response times. PMID:27152209

  17. Golfers have better balance control and confidence than healthy controls.

    PubMed

    Gao, Kelly L; Hui-Chan, Christina W Y; Tsang, William W N

    2011-11-01

    In a well-executed golf swing, golfers must maintain good balance and precise control of posture. Golfing also requires prolonged walking over uneven ground such as a hilly course. Therefore, repeated golf practice may enhance balance control and confidence in the golfers. The objective is to investigate whether older golfers had better balance control and confidence than non-golfing older, healthy adults. This is a cross-sectional study, conducted at a University-based rehabilitation center. Eleven golfers and 12 control subjects (all male; mean age: 66.2 ± 6.8 and 71.3 ± 6.6 years, respectively) were recruited. Two balance control tests were administered: (1) functional reach test which measured subjects' maximum forward distance in standing; (2) sensory organization test (SOT) which examined subjects' abilities to use somatosensory, visual, and vestibular inputs to control body sway during stance. The modified Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) determined subject's balance confidence in daily activities. The golfers were found to achieve significantly longer distance in the functional reach test than controls. They manifested significantly better balance than controls in the visual ratio and vestibular ratio, but not the somatosensory ratio of the SOT. The golfers also reported significantly higher balance confidence score ratios. Furthermore, older adults' modified ABC score ratios showed positive correlations with functional reach, visual and vestibular ratios, but not with somatosensory ratio. Golfing is an activity which may enhance both the physical and psychological aspects of balance control. Significant correlations between these measures reveal the importance of the balance control under reduced or conflicting sensory conditions in older adults' balance confidence in their daily activities. Since cause-and-effect could not be established in the present cross-sectional study, further prospective intervention design is warranted. PMID

  18. Fast and Accurate Construction of Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

    PubMed

    Schweiger, Regev; Kaufman, Shachar; Laaksonen, Reijo; Kleber, Marcus E; März, Winfried; Eskin, Eleazar; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

    2016-06-01

    Estimation of heritability is fundamental in genetic studies. Recently, heritability estimation using linear mixed models (LMMs) has gained popularity because these estimates can be obtained from unrelated individuals collected in genome-wide association studies. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. Existing methods for the construction of confidence intervals and estimators of SEs for REML rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals. Here, we show that the estimation of confidence intervals by state-of-the-art methods is inaccurate, especially when the true heritability is relatively low or relatively high. We further show that these inaccuracies occur in datasets including thousands of individuals. Such biases are present, for example, in estimates of heritability of gene expression in the Genotype-Tissue Expression project and of lipid profiles in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study. We also show that often the probability that the genetic component is estimated as 0 is high even when the true heritability is bounded away from 0, emphasizing the need for accurate confidence intervals. We propose a computationally efficient method, ALBI (accurate LMM-based heritability bootstrap confidence intervals), for estimating the distribution of the heritability estimator and for constructing accurate confidence intervals. Our method can be used as an add-on to existing methods for estimating heritability and variance components, such as GCTA, FaST-LMM, GEMMA, or EMMAX. PMID:27259052

  19. Sparse Multidimensional Patient Modeling using Auxiliary Confidence Labels

    PubMed Central

    Heim, Eric; Hauskrecht, Milos

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we focus on the problem of learning a classification model that performs inference on patient Electronic Health Records (EHRs). Often, a large amount of costly expert supervision is required to learn such a model. To reduce this cost, we obtain confidence labels that indicate how sure an expert is in the class labels she provides. If meaningful confidence information can be incorporated into a learning method, fewer patient instances may need to be labeled to learn an accurate model. In addition, while accuracy of predictions is important for any inference model, a model of patients must be interpretable so that clinicians can understand how the model is making decisions. To these ends, we develop a novel metric learning method called Confidence bAsed MEtric Learning (CAMEL) that supports inclusion of confidence labels, but also emphasizes interpretability in three ways. First, our method induces sparsity, thus producing simple models that use only a few features from patient EHRs. Second, CAMEL naturally produces confidence scores that can be taken into consideration when clinicians make treatment decisions. Third, the metrics learned by CAMEL induce multidimensional spaces where each dimension represents a different “factor” that clinicians can use to assess patients. In our experimental evaluation, we show on a real-world clinical data set that our CAMEL methods are able to learn models that are as or more accurate as other methods that use the same supervision. Furthermore, we show that when CAMEL uses confidence scores it is able to learn models as or more accurate as others we tested while using only 10% of the training instances. Finally, we perform qualitative assessments on the metrics learned by CAMEL and show that they identify and clearly articulate important factors in how the model performs inference. PMID:26949568

  20. Confidence intervals for concentration and brightness from fluorescence fluctuation measurements.

    PubMed

    Pryse, Kenneth M; Rong, Xi; Whisler, Jordan A; McConnaughey, William B; Jiang, Yan-Fei; Melnykov, Artem V; Elson, Elliot L; Genin, Guy M

    2012-09-01

    The theory of photon count histogram (PCH) analysis describes the distribution of fluorescence fluctuation amplitudes due to populations of fluorophores diffusing through a focused laser beam and provides a rigorous framework through which the brightnesses and concentrations of the fluorophores can be determined. In practice, however, the brightnesses and concentrations of only a few components can be identified. Brightnesses and concentrations are determined by a nonlinear least-squares fit of a theoretical model to the experimental PCH derived from a record of fluorescence intensity fluctuations. The χ(2) hypersurface in the neighborhood of the optimum parameter set can have varying degrees of curvature, due to the intrinsic curvature of the model, the specific parameter values of the system under study, and the relative noise in the data. Because of this varying curvature, parameters estimated from the least-squares analysis have varying degrees of uncertainty associated with them. There are several methods for assigning confidence intervals to the parameters, but these methods have different efficacies for PCH data. Here, we evaluate several approaches to confidence interval estimation for PCH data, including asymptotic standard error, likelihood joint-confidence region, likelihood confidence intervals, skew-corrected and accelerated bootstrap (BCa), and Monte Carlo residual resampling methods. We study these with a model two-dimensional membrane system for simplicity, but the principles are applicable as well to fluorophores diffusing in three-dimensional solution. Using simulated fluorescence fluctuation data, we find the BCa method to be particularly well-suited for estimating confidence intervals in PCH analysis, and several other methods to be less so. Using the BCa method and additional simulated fluctuation data, we find that confidence intervals can be reduced dramatically for a specific non-Gaussian beam profile. PMID:23009839

  1. CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1987-01-01

    A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

  2. Comparison of confidence procedures for type I censored exponential lifetimes.

    PubMed

    Sundberg, R

    2001-12-01

    In the model of type I censored exponential lifetimes, coverage probabilities are compared for a number of confidence interval constructions proposed in literature. The coverage probabilities are calculated exactly for sample sizes up to 50 and for different degrees of censoring and different degrees of intended confidence. If not only a fair two-sided coverage is desired, but also fair one-sided coverages, only few methods are quite satisfactory. A likelihood-based interval and a third root transformation to normality work almost perfectly, but the chi 2-based method that is perfect under no censoring and under type II censoring can also be advocated. PMID:11763546

  3. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-01

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence. PMID:27151640

  4. Building Academic Confidence in English Language Learners in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vazquez, Alejandra

    2014-01-01

    Non-English speaking students lack the confidence and preparation to be verbally actively engaged in the classroom. Students may frequently display hesitation in learning to speak English, and may also lack a teacher's guidance in becoming proficient English speakers. The purpose of this research is to examine how teachers build academic…

  5. Technology in Teaching: Just How Confident Are Preservice Teachers?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Molebash, Philip; Milman, Natalie

    This paper examines the effectiveness of increasing the confidence of preservice teachers in using technology for personal and instructional purposes as a result of participating in an introductory educational technology course offered at the University of Virginia's Curry School of Education. Course participants attended sections designed for…

  6. Confidence bands for measured economically optimal nitrogen rates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    While numerous researchers have computed economically optimal N rate (EONR) values from measured yield – N rate data, nearly all have neglected to compute or estimate the statistical reliability of these EONR values. In this study, a simple method for computing EONR and its confidence bands is descr...

  7. Finite sampling corrected 3D noise with confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Haefner, David P; Burks, Stephen D

    2015-05-20

    When evaluated with a spatially uniform irradiance, an imaging sensor exhibits both spatial and temporal variations, which can be described as a three-dimensional (3D) random process considered as noise. In the 1990s, NVESD engineers developed an approximation to the 3D power spectral density for noise in imaging systems known as 3D noise. The goal was to decompose the 3D noise process into spatial and temporal components identify potential sources of origin. To characterize a sensor in terms of its 3D noise values, a finite number of samples in each of the three dimensions (two spatial, one temporal) were performed. In this correspondence, we developed the full sampling corrected 3D noise measurement and the corresponding confidence bounds. The accuracy of these methods was demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations. Both the sampling correction as well as the confidence intervals can be applied a posteriori to the classic 3D noise calculation. The Matlab functions associated with this work can be found on the Mathworks file exchange ["Finite sampling corrected 3D noise with confidence intervals," https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/49657-finite-sampling-corrected-3d-noise-with-confidence-intervals.]. PMID:26192530

  8. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  9. Knowledge and Confidence of Speech-Language Pathologists Regarding Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ray, Julie M.

    2010-01-01

    The increased prevalence rate of autism has immense implications for speech language pathologists (SLPs) who are directly involved in the education and service delivery for students with autism. However, few studies have documented the effectiveness of the knowledge and confidence of SLPs regarding autism. The purpose of this study was to measure…

  10. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  11. Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

    PubMed Central

    De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

    2011-01-01

    Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

  12. Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

    2013-01-01

    Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

  13. Researchers Misunderstand Confidence Intervals and Standard Error Bars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belia, Sarah; Fidler, Fiona; Williams, Jennifer; Cumming, Geoff

    2005-01-01

    Little is known about researchers' understanding of confidence intervals (CIs) and standard error (SE) bars. Authors of journal articles in psychology, behavioral neuroscience, and medicine were invited to visit a Web site where they adjusted a figure until they judged 2 means, with error bars, to be just statistically significantly different (p…

  14. Panel Discussion and the Development of Students' Self Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anwar, Khoirul

    2016-01-01

    This study is to analyze the use of panel discussion towards the development of students' self confidence in learning the content subject of qualitative research concept. The study uses mix-method in which questionnaire and interview are conducted at the class of qualitative research of the sixth semester consisting twenty students especially…

  15. Expanding Horizons--Into the Future with Confidence!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Volk, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    Gifted students often show a deep interest in and profound concern for the complex issues of society. Given the leadership potential of these students and their likely responsibility for solving future social problems, they need to develop this awareness and also a sense of confidence in dealing with future issues. The Future Problem Solving…

  16. Using Online EFL Interaction to Increase Confidence, Motivation, and Ability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Wen-chi Vivian; Yen, Ling Ling; Marek, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Teachers of English as a Foreign Language (EFL) in Taiwan often use an outdated lecture-memorization methodology resulting in low motivation, confidence, and ability on the part of students. Innovative educators are exploring use of technology, such as videoconferences with native speakers, to enrich the classroom; however few guidelines have been…

  17. Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Filippin, Antonio; Paccagnella, Marco

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the role played by self-confidence, modeled as beliefs about one's ability, in shaping task choices. We propose a model in which fully rational agents exploit all the available information to update their beliefs using Bayes' rule, eventually learning their true type. We show that when the learning process does not…

  18. Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

  19. Multiple Confidence Estimates as Indices of Eyewitness Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauer, James D.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan

    2008-01-01

    Eyewitness identification decisions are vulnerable to various influences on witnesses' decision criteria that contribute to false identifications of innocent suspects and failures to choose perpetrators. An alternative procedure using confidence estimates to assess the degree of match between novel and previously viewed faces was investigated.…

  20. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  1. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  2. Conquering Confidence: Reflections on a Women's Winter Expedition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dudley, Catherine; Ferren, Sue; Glackmeyer, Heidi

    1999-01-01

    Three women undertook a four-day winter camping trip in the Adirondacks as their practicum in an outdoor and experiential-education course. Their description of the confidence gained and the balance between self-doubt and overconfidence is compared to walking in snowshoes. (TD)

  3. "The Confidence-Man" and Jobs beyond Academe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Mark

    1999-01-01

    Notes that the hopeful threads binding Herman Melville's book "The Confidence-Man" also weave a valuable lesson for literature PhDs considering their career options. Suggests that the values crucial to a teacher or scholar are also crucial to those who work outside the university: willingness to entertain other points of view and an ability to…

  4. Knowledge Surveys in General Chemistry: Confidence, Overconfidence, and Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Priscilla; Volckmann, David

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge surveys have been used in a number of fields to assess changes in students' understanding of their own learning and to assist students in review. This study compares metacognitive confidence ratings of students faced with problems on the surveys with their actual knowledge as shown on the final exams in two courses of general chemistry…

  5. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  6. Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

    2006-01-01

    Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population effect size…

  7. On Pupils' Self-Confidence in Mathematics: Gender Comparisons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurmi, Anu; Hannula, Markku; Maijala, Hanna; Pehkonen, Erkki

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we will concentrate on pupils' self-confidence in mathematics, which belongs to pupils' mathematical beliefs in themselves, and beliefs on achievement in mathematics. Research described consists of a survey of more than 3000 fifth-graders and seventh-graders. Furthermore, 40 pupils participated in a qualitative follow-up study…

  8. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  9. Building Confident Teachers: Preservice Physical Education Teachers' Efficacy Beliefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hand, Karen E.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding teachers' perceptions of their abilities across a variety of teaching strategies can provide insight for understanding teaching effectiveness and program review. Teaching efficacy reflects the degrees of confidence individuals have in their ability to successfully perform specific teaching proficiencies (Bandura, 1986). Additional…

  10. Building and Encouraging Confidence and Creativity in Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Lynnette J.

    The focus of this study is an eight-week science enrichment mentorship program for elementary and middle school girls (ages 8 to 13) at Coleson Village, a public housing community, in an urban area of western Washington. The goal of the program was to build confidence and encourage creativity as the participants discovered themselves as competent…

  11. Acceptance and confidence of central and peripheral misinformation.

    PubMed

    Luna, Karlos; Migueles, Malen

    2009-11-01

    We examined the memory for central and peripheral information concerning a crime and the acceptance of false information. We also studied eyewitnesses' confidence in their memory. Participants were shown a video depicting a bank robbery and a questionnaire was used to introduce false central and peripheral information. The next day the participants completed a recognition task in which they rated the confidence of their responses. Performance was better for central information and participants registered more false alarms for peripheral contents. The cognitive system's limited attentional capacity and the greater information capacity of central elements may facilitate processing the more important information. The presentation of misinformation seriously impaired eyewitness memory by prompting a more lenient response criterion. Participants were more confident with central than with peripheral information. Eyewitness memory is easily distorted in peripheral aspects but it is more difficult to make mistakes with central information. However, when false information is introduced, errors in central information can be accompanied by high confidence, thus rendering them credible and legally serious. PMID:19899643

  12. Constructing Approximate Confidence Intervals for Parameters with Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheung, Mike W. -L.

    2009-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) for parameters are usually constructed based on the estimated standard errors. These are known as Wald CIs. This article argues that likelihood-based CIs (CIs based on likelihood ratio statistics) are often preferred to Wald CIs. It shows how the likelihood-based CIs and the Wald CIs for many statistics and psychometric…

  13. Utility of de-escalatory confidence-building measures

    SciTech Connect

    Nation, J.

    1989-06-01

    This paper evaluates the utility of specific confidence-building de-escalatory measures and pays special attention to the evaluation of measures which place restrictions on or establish procedures for strategic forces. Some measures appear more promising than others. Potentially useful confidence-building measures largely satisfy defined criteria and include the phased return of strategic nuclear forces to peacetime bases and operations, the termination of interference with communications and NTMs (National Technical Means) and the termination of civil defense preparations. Less-promising CBMs include the standing down of supplemental early warning systems, the establishment of SSBN keep-out zones, and decreases in bomber alert rates. Establishment of SSBN keep-out zones and reduction in bomber rates are difficult to verify, while the standing-down of early warning systems provides little benefit at potentially large costs. Particular confidence-building measures (CBMs) may be most useful in building superpower confidence at specific points in the crisis termination phase. For example, a decrease in strategic bomber alert rates may provide some decrease in perception of the likelihood of war, but its potential costs, particularly in increasing bomber vulnerability, may limit its utility and implementation to the final crisis stages when the risks of re-escalation and surprise attack are lower.

  14. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  15. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  16. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  17. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  18. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  19. Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oort, Frans J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

  20. Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence: The ABC Scale Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2009-01-01

    The Academic Behavioural Confidence (ABC) scale has been shown to be valid and can be useful to teachers in understanding their students, enabling the design of more effective teaching sessions with large cohorts. However, some of the between-group differences have been smaller than expected, leading to the hypothesis that the ABC scale many not…

  1. Confidence Intervals and Replication: Where Will the Next Mean Fall?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cumming, Geoff; Maillardet, Robert

    2006-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) give information about replication, but many researchers have misconceptions about this information. One problem is that the percentage of future replication means captured by a particular CI varies markedly, depending on where in relation to the population mean that CI falls. The authors investigated the distribution of…

  2. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  3. Confidence in dental care and public health competency during rural practice among new dental graduates in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    Wisaijohn, Thunthita; Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong; Topothai, Thitikorn; Seneerattanaprayul, Parinda; Pudpong, Nareerut; Putthasri, Weerasak

    2015-01-01

    Objective The dental profession has played an important role in the development of the health system in Thailand. However, it is not known if dental graduates’ standards of knowledge, skills, and capabilities are fulfilling the health needs of Thais. This study aimed to assess the level of confidence in dental public health competency among final-year dental students who graduated in 2013. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 571 new dental graduates who participated in an official meeting arranged by the Ministry of Public Health in 2013. Self-administered questionnaires were used for collecting data on their confidence levels in selected public-health competencies. Of the total graduates, 72.5% anonymously responded to the questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics, factor analysis, and stepwise regression were applied for data analysis. Results The majority of respondents expressed confidence in their ability to care for patients, but less confidence in public-health and administration competencies. The results also show that there was no significant association between demographic and educational profiles of respondents and confidence in their clinical competency. However, significantly more students who graduated from schools located outside Bangkok and vicinity rated themselves as competent in public health (coefficient = 0.333, P=0.021). Conclusion New dentists who graduated from dental schools in Bangkok and vicinity had lower levels of confidence in their public-health competencies compared to those who graduated from dental schools outside Bangkok. Thus, working in rural areas after graduation could help new dentists gain more experience in rural practice, leading to higher confidence levels. The findings from this study could contribute to the improvement of the dental curriculum and contract-bonding policy to work in rural areas. PMID:25565912

  4. A national radiation oncology medical student clerkship survey: Didactic curricular components increase confidence in clinical competency

    PubMed Central

    Jagadeesan, Vikrant S.; Raleigh, David R.; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J.; Golden, Daniel W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose/Objectives Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete one or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials An anonymous, internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012–2013 academic year. The survey was composed of three main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results The survey response rate was 37% (70/188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. 27% of respondents (19/70) completed at least one clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent’s confidence to function as a first- year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank-sum p = 0.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman’s rho p = 0.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman’s rho p = 0.43). Conclusions Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation

  5. A National Radiation Oncology Medical Student Clerkship Survey: Didactic Curricular Components Increase Confidence in Clinical Competency

    SciTech Connect

    Jagadeesan, Vikrant S.; Raleigh, David R.; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J.; Golden, Daniel W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete 1 or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials: An anonymous, Internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012-2013 academic year. The survey was composed of 3 main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results: The survey response rate was 37% (70 of 188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. Of the respondents, 27% (19 of 70) completed at least 1 clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent's confidence to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank–sum P=.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman ρ P=.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman ρ P=.43). Conclusions: Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation oncology resident. These results

  6. Confidence in facial emotion recognition in borderline personality disorder.

    PubMed

    Thome, Janine; Liebke, Lisa; Bungert, Melanie; Schmahl, Christian; Domes, Gregor; Bohus, Martin; Lis, Stefanie

    2016-04-01

    Dysfunctions of social-cognitive processes such as the recognition of emotions have been discussed to contribute to the severe impairments of interpersonal functioning in borderline personality disorder (BPD). By investigating how patients with BPD experience the intensity of different emotions in a facial expression and how confident they are in their own judgments, the current study aimed at identifying subtle alterations of emotion processing in BPD. Female patients with BPD (N = 36) and 36 healthy controls were presented with faces that displayed low-intense anger and happiness or ambiguous expressions of anger and happiness blends. Subjects were asked to rate (a) the intensity of anger and happiness in each facial expression and (b) their confidence in their judgments. Patients with BPD rated the intensity of happiness in happy faces lower than did controls, but did not differ in regard to the assessment of angry or ambiguous facial stimuli or the rating of anger. They reported lower confidence in their judgments, which was particularly pronounced for the assessment of happy facial expressions. The reduced rating of happiness was linked to higher state anger, whereas the reduced confidence in the assessment of happy faces was related to stronger feelings of loneliness and the expectation of social rejection. Our findings suggest alterations in the processing of positive social stimuli that affect both the experience of the emotional intensity and the confidence subjects experience during their assessment. The link to loneliness and social rejection sensitivity points to the necessity to target these alterations in psychotherapeutical interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26389624

  7. Improving maternal confidence in neonatal care through a checklist intervention

    PubMed Central

    Radenkovic, Dina; Kotecha, Shrinal; Patel, Shreena; Lakhani, Anjali; Reimann-Dubbers, Katharina; Shah, Shreya; Jafree, Daniyal; Mitrasinovic, Stefan; Whitten, Melissa

    2016-01-01

    Previous qualitative studies suggest a lack of maternal confidence in care of their newborn child upon discharge into the community. This observation was supported by discussion with healthcare professionals and mothers at University College London Hospital (UCLH), highlighting specific areas of concern, in particular identifying and managing common neonatal presentations. The aim of this study was to design and introduce a checklist, addressing concerns, to increase maternal confidence in care of their newborn child. Based on market research, an 8-question checklist was designed, assessing maternal confidence in: feeding, jaundice, nappy care, rashes and dry skin, umbilical cord care, choking, bowel movements, and vomiting. Mothers were assessed as per the checklist, and received a score representative of their confidence in neonatal care. Mothers were followed up with a telephone call, and were assessed after a 7-day-period. Checklist scores before as compared to after the follow-up period were analysed. This process was repeated for three study cycles, with the placement of information posters on the ward prior to the second study cycle, and the stapling of the checklist to the mother's personal child health record (PCHR) prior to the third study cycle. A total of 99 mothers on the Maternity Care Unit at UCLH were enrolled in the study, and 92 were contactable after a 7-day period. During all study cycles, a significant increase in median checklist score was observed after, as compared to before, the 7-day follow up period (p < 0.001). The median difference in checklist score from baseline was greatest for the third cycle. These results suggest that introduction of a simple checklist can be successfully utilised to improve confidence of mothers in being able to care for their newborn child. Further investigation is indicated, but this intervention has the potential for routine application in postnatal care. PMID:27335642

  8. Confidence in one's social beliefs: implications for belief justification.

    PubMed

    Koriat, Asher; Adiv, Shiri

    2012-12-01

    Philosophers commonly define knowledge as justified true beliefs. A heated debate exists, however, about what makes a belief justified. In this article, we examine the question of belief justification from a psychological perspective, focusing on the subjective confidence in a belief that the person has just formed. Participants decided whether to accept or reject a proposition depicting a social belief, and indicated their confidence in their choice. The task was repeated six times, and choice latency was measured. The results were analyzed within a Self-Consistency Model (SCM) of subjective confidence. According to SCM, the decision to accept or reject a proposition is based on the on-line sampling of representations from a pool of representations associated with the proposition. Respondents behave like intuitive statisticians who infer the central tendency of a population based on a small sample. Confidence depends on the consistency with which the belief was supported across the sampled representations, and reflects the likelihood that a new sample will yield the same decision. The results supported the assumption of a commonly shared population of representations associated with each proposition. Based on this assumption, analyses of within-person consistency and cross-person consensus provided support for the model. As expected, choices that deviated from the person's own modal judgment or from the consensually held judgment took relatively longer to form and were associated with relatively lower confidence, presumably because they were based on non-representative samples. The results were discussed in relation to major epistemological theories--foundationalism, coherentism and reliabilism. PMID:22995400

  9. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    PubMed Central

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  10. The Development and Validation of a Tool to Measure Self-Confidence and Anxiety in Nursing Students While Making Clinical Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Krista Alaine

    2011-01-01

    Clinical decision making (CDM) is a cornerstone skill for nurses. Self-confidence and anxiety are two affective influences that impact the learning and adeptness of CDM. Currently, no instruments exist that measure perceived self-confidence and anxiety level of undergraduate nursing students related to CDM. The purpose of this research was to…

  11. The addition of high magnifying endoscopy improves rates of high confidence optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps

    PubMed Central

    Iwatate, Mineo; Sano, Yasushi; Hattori, Santa; Sano, Wataru; Hasuike, Noriaki; Ikumoto, Taro; Kotaka, Masahito; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Hewett, David G.; Soetikno, Roy; Kaltenbach, Tonya; Fujimori, Takahiro

    2015-01-01

    Background and study aims: The real-time optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps with high confidence predictions can achieve high levels of accuracy. Increasing the rates of high confidence optical diagnosis can improve the clinical application of real-time optical diagnosis in routine practice. The primary aim of this prospective study was to evaluate whether high magnifying endoscopy improves the rates of high confidence narrow-band imaging (NBI) – based optical diagnosis for differentiating between neoplastic and non-neoplastic colorectal lesions according to the NBI international colorectal endoscopic (NICE) classification. Patients and methods: Consecutive adult patients undergoing colonoscopy with a high magnifying (maximum, × 80) colonoscope between April and August 2012 were recruited. The optical diagnosis for each polyp was evaluated during colonoscopy in two consecutive stages by the same endoscopist, who first used NBI with non-magnifying endoscopy (NBI-NME), then NBI with magnifying endoscopy (NBI-ME). A level of confidence was assigned to each prediction. Results: The analysis included 124 patients (mean age, 56.4 years; male-to-female ratio, 72:52) with 248 polyps smaller than 10 mm. Of the 248 polyps, 210 were 1 to 5 mm in size and 38 were 6 to 9 mm in size; 77 polyps were hyperplastic, 4 were sessile serrated adenomas/polyps, 160 were low grade adenomas, 5 were high grade adenomas, and 2 were deep submucosal invasive carcinomas. The rate of high confidence optical diagnosis when NBI-ME was used was significantly higher than the rate when NBI-NME was used for diminutive (1 – 5 mm) polyps (92.9 % vs 79.5 %, P < 0.001) and for small (6 – 9 mm) polyps (94.7 % vs 84.2 %, P = 0.048). Conclusion: High magnifying endoscopy significantly improved the rates of high confidence NBI-based optical diagnosis of diminutive and small colorectal polyps. Study registration: UMIN 000007608 PMID:26135657

  12. Feedback about more accurate versus less accurate trials: differential effects on self-confidence and activation.

    PubMed

    Badami, Rokhsareh; VaezMousavi, Mohammad; Wulf, Gabriele; Namazizadeh, Mahdi

    2012-06-01

    One purpose of the present study was to examine whether self-confidence or anxiety would be differentially affected byfeedback from more accurate rather than less accurate trials. The second purpose was to determine whether arousal variations (activation) would predict performance. On day 1, participants performed a golf putting task under one of two conditions: one group received feedback on the most accurate trials, whereas another group received feedback on the least accurate trials. On day 2, participants completed an anxiety questionnaire and performed a retention test. Shin conductance level, as a measure of arousal, was determined. The results indicated that feedback about more accurate trials resulted in more effective learning as well as increased self-confidence. Also, activation was a predictor of performance. PMID:22808705

  13. Eyewitness recall: Regulation of grain size and the role of confidence.

    PubMed

    Weber, Nathan; Brewer, Neil

    2008-03-01

    Eyewitness testimony plays a critical role in Western legal systems. Three experiments extended M. Goldsmith, A. Koriat, and A. Weinberg-Eliezer's (2002) framework of the regulation of grain size (precision vs. coarseness) of memory reports to eyewitness memory. In 2 experiments, the grain size of responses had a large impact on memory accuracy. Further, participants achieved a compromise between the accuracy and informativeness of their testimony by volunteering precise answers only when likely to be correct. The level of detail reported was strongly, positively related to confidence in the accuracy of the response. This highlights the importance of considering the level of detail, not just the accuracy, of eyewitness testimony. PMID:18377166

  14. Optical variability of X-ray-selected QSOs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pica, Andrew J.; Webb, James R.; Smith, Alex G.; Leacock, Robert J.; Bitran, Mauricio

    1987-08-01

    Photometric data for ten X-ray-selected quasistellar objects have been obtained from archival records of the Rosemary Hill Observatory. Reliable magnitudes were obtained for seven of the ten sources and six displayed optical variations significant at the 95 percent confidence level or greater. One source appeared to exhibit optically violent behavior. Light curves and photographic magnitudes are presented and discussed.

  15. Optical variability of X-ray-selected QSOs

    SciTech Connect

    Pica, A.J.; Webb, J.R.; Smith, A.G.; Leacock, R.J.; Bitran, M.

    1987-08-01

    Photometric data for ten X-ray-selected quasistellar objects have been obtained from archival records of the Rosemary Hill Observatory. Reliable magnitudes were obtained for seven of the ten sources and six displayed optical variations significant at the 95 percent confidence level or greater. One source appeared to exhibit optically violent behavior. Light curves and photographic magnitudes are presented and discussed. 22 references.

  16. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology.

    PubMed

    Earp, Brian D; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt "fails"-does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should "failed" replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing "failed" replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  17. An Overview of Space Exploration Simulation (Basis of Confidence) Documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bray, Alleen; Hale, Joseph P.

    2006-01-01

    Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations by providing critical information that supports key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision making. In this presentation we will describe how development of simulation capability documentation will be used to form a Basis of Confidence (Basis of Confidence) for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) M&S. The process by which BOC documentation is developed will be addressed, as well as the structure and critical concepts that are essential for establishing credibility of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) legacy M&S. We will illustrate the significance of BOC documentation in supporting decision makers and Accreditation Authorities in M&S risk management.

  18. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    PubMed Central

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  19. Investigation of a comprehensive confidence measure in NDE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Portia; Safdarnejad, Seyed; Udpa, Lalita; Udpa, Satish

    2015-03-01

    Quantitative assessment of reliability of classification results is critical in detection and characterization of anomalies in any non-destructive evaluation (NDE) application. Particularly in automated data analysis systems, such a measure enables the system to automatically flag indications where operator intervention is required, and reduces maintenance costs and risks. Classification results are affected by inherent ambiguity of defect classes, non-discriminative features, inadequate training samples and poor data quality. Although these sources of uncertainties in classification have been studied, formulating a single measure which quantifies all of them together has not been done to date. Generally, from Bayesian point of view, the posterior probability is considered as a confidence measure. Posterior probability of occurrence of an event is representative of inter-class similarities and intra-class distance and thus, may be used as a measure of inherent ambiguity of classes and discriminative quality of features. However, estimation of posterior probability itself is affected by size of available training samples. In this paper, we develop a framework to incorporate these two major sources of classification error in a single quantity. In lieu of the simplistic assumption, we assume that parameters of the distribution of a class are random variables. We utilize bootstrap method to find empirical distribution of parameters of the class conditional densities based on which a distribution of confidence is found. Utilizing this distribution, different interpretations of the confidence measure may be provided. Analytical results show how statistical properties of the confidence distribution depend on number of training samples and quality of features. Initial results of the approach on eddy current data is presented.

  20. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    PubMed

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined. PMID:25691289

  1. Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times

    PubMed Central

    Kahana, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Classification of stimuli into categories (such as ‘old’ and ‘new’ in tests of recognition memory or ‘present’ versus ‘absent’ in signal detection tasks) requires the mapping of internal signals to discrete responses. Introspective judgements about a given choice response are regularly employed in research, legal and clinical settings in an effort to measure the signal that is thought to be the basis of the classification decision. Correlations between introspective judgements and task performance suggest that such ratings often do convey information about internal states that are relevant for a given task, but well-known limitations of introspection call the fidelity of this information into question. We investigated to what extent response times can reveal information usually assessed with explicit confidence ratings. We quantitatively compared response times to confidence ratings in their ability to qualify recognition memory decisions and found convergent results suggesting that much of the information from confidence ratings can be obtained from response times. PMID:27152209

  2. Re-thinking accountability: trust versus confidence in medical practice.

    PubMed

    Checkland, K; Marshall, M; Harrison, S

    2004-04-01

    In seeking to prevent a reoccurrence of scandals such as that involving cardiac surgery in Bristol, the UK government has adopted a model of regulation that uses rules and surveillance as a way of both improving the quality of care delivered and increasing confidence in healthcare institutions. However, this approach may actually act to reduce confidence and trust while also reducing the moral motivation of practitioners. Accountability in health care is discussed, and it is suggested that openness about the difficult dilemmas that arise when practitioners have a duty to be accountable to more than one audience may be an alternative means of restoring trust. A greater emphasis on the sharing of information between individual health professionals and their patients would increase trust and would allow patients to hold their doctors to account for the quality of care they receive. Concentrating more on developing trust by the sharing of information and less on the futile search for complete confidence in systems and rules may improve the quality of care delivered while also nurturing the moral motivation of professionals upon which the delivery of high quality health care depends. PMID:15069221

  3. Multiclass microarray data classification based on confidence evaluation.

    PubMed

    Yu, H L; Gao, S; Qin, B; Zhao, J

    2012-01-01

    Microarray technology is becoming a powerful tool for clinical diagnosis, as it has potential to discover gene expression patterns that are characteristic for a particular disease. To date, this possibility has received much attention in the context of cancer research, especially in tumor classification. However, most published articles have concentrated on the development of binary classification methods while neglected ubiquitous multiclass problems. Unfortunately, only a few multiclass classification approaches have had poor predictive accuracy. In an effort to improve classification accuracy, we developed a novel multiclass microarray data classification method. First, we applied a "one versus rest-support vector machine" to classify the samples. Then the classification confidence of each testing sample was evaluated according to its distribution in feature space and some with poor confidence were extracted. Next, a novel strategy, which we named as "class priority estimation method based on centroid distance", was used to make decisions about categories for those poor confidence samples. This approach was tested on seven benchmark multiclass microarray datasets, with encouraging results, demonstrating effectiveness and feasibility. PMID:22653582

  4. A quantitative confidence signal detection model: 1. Fitting psychometric functions.

    PubMed

    Yi, Yongwoo; Merfeld, Daniel M

    2016-04-01

    Perceptual thresholds are commonly assayed in the laboratory and clinic. When precision and accuracy are required, thresholds are quantified by fitting a psychometric function to forced-choice data. The primary shortcoming of this approach is that it typically requires 100 trials or more to yield accurate (i.e., small bias) and precise (i.e., small variance) psychometric parameter estimates. We show that confidence probability judgments combined with a model of confidence can yield psychometric parameter estimates that are markedly more precise and/or markedly more efficient than conventional methods. Specifically, both human data and simulations show that including confidence probability judgments for just 20 trials can yield psychometric parameter estimates that match the precision of those obtained from 100 trials using conventional analyses. Such an efficiency advantage would be especially beneficial for tasks (e.g., taste, smell, and vestibular assays) that require more than a few seconds for each trial, but this potential benefit could accrue for many other tasks. PMID:26763777

  5. Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Stedinger, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient "weighting" procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed-form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA-based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood-quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25- to 100-year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

  6. Impact of Point-of-Care Ultrasound Training on Surgical Residents' Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Kotagal, Meera; Quiroga, Elina; Ruffatto, Benjamin J.; Adedipe, Adeyinka A.; Backlund, Brandon H.; Nathan, Robert; Roche, Anthony; Sajed, Dana; Shah, Sachita

    2016-01-01

    specifically for surgeons, surgical residents had improved self-efficacy and confidence levels across a broad range of skills. PMID:25911457

  7. Tracing the evolution of chiropractic students’ confidence in clinical and patient communication skills during a clinical internship: a multi-methods study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Anecdotal evidence points to variations in individual students’ evolving confidence in clinical and patient communication skills during a clinical internship. A better understanding of the specific aspects of internships that contribute to increasing or decreasing confidence is needed to best support students during the clinical component of their study. Methods A multi-method approach, combining two large-scale surveys with 269 students and three in-depth individual interviews with a sub-sample of 29 students, was used to investigate the evolution of change in student confidence during a 10-month long internship. Change in levels of confidence in patient communication and clinical skills was measured and relationship to demographic factors were explored. The interviews elicited students’ accounts and reflections on what affected the evolution of their confidence during the internship. Results At the start of their internship, students were more confident in their patient communication skills than their clinical skills but prior experience was significantly related to confidence in both. Initial confidence in patient communication skills was also related to age and prior qualification but not gender whilst confidence in clinical skills was related to gender but not age or prior qualification. These influences were maintained over time. Overall, students’ levels of confidence in patient communication and clinical skills confidence increased significantly over the duration of the internship with evidence that change over time in these two aspects were inter-related. To explore how specific aspects of the internship contributed to changing levels of confidence, two extreme sub-groups of interviewees were identified, those with the least increase and those with the highest increase in professional confidence over time. A number of key factors affecting the development of confidence were identified, including among others, interactions with clinicians

  8. miRBase: annotating high confidence microRNAs using deep sequencing data

    PubMed Central

    Kozomara, Ana; Griffiths-Jones, Sam

    2014-01-01

    We describe an update of the miRBase database (http://www.mirbase.org/), the primary microRNA sequence repository. The latest miRBase release (v20, June 2013) contains 24 521 microRNA loci from 206 species, processed to produce 30 424 mature microRNA products. The rate of deposition of novel microRNAs and the number of researchers involved in their discovery continue to increase, driven largely by small RNA deep sequencing experiments. In the face of these increases, and a range of microRNA annotation methods and criteria, maintaining the quality of the microRNA sequence data set is a significant challenge. Here, we describe recent developments of the miRBase database to address this issue. In particular, we describe the collation and use of deep sequencing data sets to assign levels of confidence to miRBase entries. We now provide a high confidence subset of miRBase entries, based on the pattern of mapped reads. The high confidence microRNA data set is available alongside the complete microRNA collection at http://www.mirbase.org/. We also describe embedding microRNA-specific Wikipedia pages on the miRBase website to encourage the microRNA community to contribute and share textual and functional information. PMID:24275495

  9. miRBase: annotating high confidence microRNAs using deep sequencing data.

    PubMed

    Kozomara, Ana; Griffiths-Jones, Sam

    2014-01-01

    We describe an update of the miRBase database (http://www.mirbase.org/), the primary microRNA sequence repository. The latest miRBase release (v20, June 2013) contains 24 521 microRNA loci from 206 species, processed to produce 30 424 mature microRNA products. The rate of deposition of novel microRNAs and the number of researchers involved in their discovery continue to increase, driven largely by small RNA deep sequencing experiments. In the face of these increases, and a range of microRNA annotation methods and criteria, maintaining the quality of the microRNA sequence data set is a significant challenge. Here, we describe recent developments of the miRBase database to address this issue. In particular, we describe the collation and use of deep sequencing data sets to assign levels of confidence to miRBase entries. We now provide a high confidence subset of miRBase entries, based on the pattern of mapped reads. The high confidence microRNA data set is available alongside the complete microRNA collection at http://www.mirbase.org/. We also describe embedding microRNA-specific Wikipedia pages on the miRBase website to encourage the microRNA community to contribute and share textual and functional information. PMID:24275495

  10. A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

    2007-01-01

    In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

  11. A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu, L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

    2006-01-01

    In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Ovenvrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter error are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

  12. Augmenting Chinese hamster genome assembly by identifying regions of high confidence.

    PubMed

    Vishwanathan, Nandita; Bandyopadhyay, Arpan A; Fu, Hsu-Yuan; Sharma, Mohit; Johnson, Kathryn C; Mudge, Joann; Ramaraj, Thiruvarangan; Onsongo, Getiria; Silverstein, Kevin A T; Jacob, Nitya M; Le, Huong; Karypis, George; Hu, Wei-Shou

    2016-09-01

    Chinese hamster Ovary (CHO) cell lines are the dominant industrial workhorses for therapeutic recombinant protein production. The availability of genome sequence of Chinese hamster and CHO cells will spur further genome and RNA sequencing of producing cell lines. However, the mammalian genomes assembled using shot-gun sequencing data still contain regions of uncertain quality due to assembly errors. Identifying high confidence regions in the assembled genome will facilitate its use for cell engineering and genome engineering. We assembled two independent drafts of Chinese hamster genome by de novo assembly from shotgun sequencing reads and by re-scaffolding and gap-filling the draft genome from NCBI for improved scaffold lengths and gap fractions. We then used the two independent assemblies to identify high confidence regions using two different approaches. First, the two independent assemblies were compared at the sequence level to identify their consensus regions as "high confidence regions" which accounts for at least 78 % of the assembled genome. Further, a genome wide comparison of the Chinese hamster scaffolds with mouse chromosomes revealed scaffolds with large blocks of collinearity, which were also compiled as high-quality scaffolds. Genome scale collinearity was complemented with EST based synteny which also revealed conserved gene order compared to mouse. As cell line sequencing becomes more commonly practiced, the approaches reported here are useful for assessing the quality of assembly and potentially facilitate the engineering of cell lines. PMID:27374913

  13. Spatiotemporal dissociation of brain activity underlying subjective awareness, objective performance and confidence.

    PubMed

    Li, Qi; Hill, Zachary; He, Biyu J

    2014-03-19

    Despite intense recent research, the neural correlates of conscious visual perception remain elusive. The most established paradigm for studying brain mechanisms underlying conscious perception is to keep the physical sensory inputs constant and identify brain activities that correlate with the changing content of conscious awareness. However, such a contrast based on conscious content alone would not only reveal brain activities directly contributing to conscious perception, but also include brain activities that precede or follow it. To address this issue, we devised a paradigm whereby we collected, trial-by-trial, measures of objective performance, subjective awareness, and the confidence level of subjective awareness. Using magnetoencephalography recordings in healthy human volunteers, we dissociated brain activities underlying these different cognitive phenomena. Our results provide strong evidence that widely distributed slow cortical potentials (SCPs) correlate with subjective awareness, even after the effects of objective performance and confidence were both removed. The SCP correlate of conscious perception manifests strongly in its waveform, phase, and power. In contrast, objective performance and confidence were both contributed by relatively transient brain activity. These results shed new light on the brain mechanisms of conscious, unconscious, and metacognitive processing. PMID:24647958

  14. Line segment confidence region-based string matching method for map conflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huh, Yong; Yang, Sungchul; Ga, Chillo; Yu, Kiyun; Shi, Wenzhong

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, a method to detect corresponding point pairs between polygon object pairs with a string matching method based on a confidence region model of a line segment is proposed. The optimal point edit sequence to convert the contour of a target object into that of a reference object was found by the string matching method which minimizes its total error cost, and the corresponding point pairs were derived from the edit sequence. Because a significant amount of apparent positional discrepancies between corresponding objects are caused by spatial uncertainty and their confidence region models of line segments are therefore used in the above matching process, the proposed method obtained a high F-measure for finding matching pairs. We applied this method for built-up area polygon objects in a cadastral map and a topographical map. Regardless of their different mapping and representation rules and spatial uncertainties, the proposed method with a confidence level at 0.95 showed a matching result with an F-measure of 0.894.

  15. Evidence classification of high-throughput protocols and confidence integration in RegulonDB.

    PubMed

    Weiss, Verena; Medina-Rivera, Alejandra; Huerta, Araceli M; Santos-Zavaleta, Alberto; Salgado, Heladia; Morett, Enrique; Collado-Vides, Julio

    2013-01-01

    RegulonDB provides curated information on the transcriptional regulatory network of Escherichia coli and contains both experimental data and computationally predicted objects. To account for the heterogeneity of these data, we introduced in version 6.0, a two-tier rating system for the strength of evidence, classifying evidence as either 'weak' or 'strong' (Gama-Castro,S., Jimenez-Jacinto,V., Peralta-Gil,M. et al. RegulonDB (Version 6.0): gene regulation model of Escherichia Coli K-12 beyond transcription, active (experimental) annotated promoters and textpresso navigation. Nucleic Acids Res., 2008;36:D120-D124.). We now add to our classification scheme the classification of high-throughput evidence, including chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and RNA-seq technologies. To integrate these data into RegulonDB, we present two strategies for the evaluation of confidence, statistical validation and independent cross-validation. Statistical validation involves verification of ChIP data for transcription factor-binding sites, using tools for motif discovery and quality assessment of the discovered matrices. Independent cross-validation combines independent evidence with the intention to mutually exclude false positives. Both statistical validation and cross-validation allow to upgrade subsets of data that are supported by weak evidence to a higher confidence level. Likewise, cross-validation of strong confidence data extends our two-tier rating system to a three-tier system by introducing a third confidence score 'confirmed'. Database URL: http://regulondb.ccg.unam.mx/ PMID:23327937

  16. Professional values, self-esteem, and ethical confidence of baccalaureate nursing students.

    PubMed

    Iacobucci, Trisha A; Daly, Barbara J; Lindell, Debbie; Griffin, Mary Quinn

    2013-06-01

    Professional identity and competent ethical behaviors of nursing students are commonly developed through curricular inclusion of professional nursing values education. Despite the enactment of this approach, nursing students continue to express difficulty in managing ethical conflicts encountered in their practice. This descriptive correlational study explores the relationships between professional nursing values, self-esteem, and ethical decision making among senior baccalaureate nursing students. A convenience sample of 47 senior nursing students from the United States were surveyed for their level of internalized professional nursing values (Revised Professional Nursing Values Scale), level of self-esteem (Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale), and perceived level of confidence in ethical decision making. A significant positive relationship (p < 0.05) was found between nursing students' professional nursing values and levels of self-esteem. The results of this study can be useful to nursing educators whose efforts are focused on promoting professional identity development and competent ethical behaviors of future nurses. PMID:23166146

  17. On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

    2007-01-01

    A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

  18. The reliability of lumbar motion palpation using continuous analysis and confidence ratings: choosing a relevant index of agreement

    PubMed Central

    Cooperstein, Robert; Young, Morgan

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Most studies show motion palpation unreliable. This study’s primary objective was assessing its reliability using a continuous measure methods, most-fixated level paradigm, stratified by examiners’ confidence; and the secondary objective was comparing various indices of examiner agreement. Methods: Thirty-four minimally symptomatic participants were palpated in side posture by two experienced examiners. Interexaminer differences in identifying the most-fixated level and degree of examiner confidence were recorded. Indices of agreement were: Intraclass correlation coefficient, Mean and Median Examiner Absolute Examiner Differences, Root-Mean-Square Error and Bland-Altman Limits of Agreement. Results: Three of four reliability indices (excluding intraclass correlation) suggested on average examiners agreed on the most fixated motion segment, and agreement increased with confidence. Statistical measures of data dispersion were low. The analyses of subgroups were “fragile” due to small sample size. Discussion: Although subject homogeneity lowered ICC levels, the other reliability measures were not similarly impacted. Continuous measures statistical analysis demonstrates examiner agreement in situations where discrete analysis with kappa may not. Conclusion: Continuous analysis for the lumbar most-fixated level is reliable. Future studies will need a larger sample size to properly analyze subgroups based on examiner confidence. PMID:27385834

  19. Having Their Song Heard: Tracking Pre-Service Kindergarten Teachers' Perceptions and Confidence in Their Singing Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neokleous, Rania

    2013-01-01

    This paper reports a study investigating pre-service kindergarten teachers' confidence levels and perceptions regarding their singing skills, and the impact of a music methods course on these self-perceptions. The course incorporated singing instruction in 24 lectures and two 10-minute private singing tutorials at the beginning and middle of…

  20. Auditing the TK and TPACK Confidence of Pre-Service Teachers: Are They Ready for the Profession?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jamieson-Proctor, Romina; Finger, Glenn; Albion, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Teacher education graduates need appropriate levels of confidence and capabilities in relation to technological knowledge (TK) as a basis for having technological pedagogical content knowledge (TPACK) to meet the challenges of learning and teaching in the 21st century. However, it should not be assumed that tomorrow's teachers enter the profession…

  1. The Impact of a Place-Based Professional Development Program on Teachers' Confidence, Attitudes, and Classroom Practices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meichtry, Yvonne; Smith, Jeffrey

    2007-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to determine the impact of a professional development program on the confidence levels and classroom practices of the participants and their attitudes toward the environment. The program had immersed teachers in a watershed study that took them from the headwaters of a 310-mile river to its confluence with the Ohio…

  2. Speech-Language Pathologists' Knowledge of Genetics: Perceived Confidence, Attitudes, Knowledge Acquisition and Practice-Based Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tramontana, G. Michael; Blood, Ingrid M.; Blood, Gordon W.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine (a) the general knowledge bases demonstrated by school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the area of genetics, (b) the confidence levels of SLPs in providing services to children and their families with genetic disorders/syndromes, (c) the attitudes of SLPs regarding genetics and communication…

  3. Role of Seismic Calibration as a Confidence-Building Measure

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, L A; Zucca, J JW S; Phillips, W S

    2000-07-20

    Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) address the political goal of alleviating compliance concerns raised by chemical explosions and the technical goal of calibrating the International Monitoring System (IMS; ref. Article IV, E, and Part 111 of the Protocol to the treaty). The term ''calibration'' only appears in the treaty associated with CBMs and On-Site Inspection and has different meanings in each case. This difference can be illustrated through the use of a simple, conceptual equation:

  4. Establishing Quantitative Within-Subject Confidence Limits For Clinical Stereoroentgenographs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korn, Edward L.; Baumrind, Sheldon; Chafetz, Neil; Curry, Sean; Moffitt, Francis

    1983-07-01

    It is now quite clear that under ideal conditions, discrete points can be located on x-ray films with standard deviations of less than 50 i. However, under routine clinical conditions, such considerations as individual variation in anatomy, movement of the subject between exposures, and variations in image quality combine to produce considerable reductions in the confidence which can be placed in quantitative assessments made from stereoroentgenographic films. This paper discusses some considerations involved in designing mathematical models in such a way as to optimize the use of imperfect data in answering specific clinical questions.

  5. A recipe for the construction of confidence limits

    SciTech Connect

    Iain A Bertram et al.

    2000-04-12

    In this note, the authors present the recipe recommended by the Search Limits Committee for the construction of confidence intervals for the use of D0 collaboration. In another note, currently in preparation, they present the rationale for this recipe, a critique of the current literature on this topic, and several examples of the use of the method. This note is intended to fill the need of the collaboration to have a reference available until the more complete note is finished. Section 2 introduces the notation used in this note, and Section 3 contains the suggested recipe.

  6. Study of the self-confidence of midwifery graduates from Mashhad College of nursing and midwifery in fulfilling clinical skills

    PubMed Central

    Mirzakhani, Kobra; Shorab, Nahid Jahani

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Self-confidence is one of the main components of clinical competence, and it is considered to be an important indicator of ability and competence. The aim of this study was to determine the confidence of midwifery graduates from Mashhad College of nursing and midwifery in fulfilling the required clinical skills. Methods: The study was in the form of a cross-sectional study, and it was performed in 2011 on 50 midwifery graduates who had been working in health centers in Mashhad for six months to three years providing midwifery services, as well as on their supervisors having a minimum of 6 months experiences of responsibility in these centers. The research tools included self-assessment tools of self-confidence in midwives and assessment tools of self-confidence in midwifery graduates in fulfilling clinical skills performed by the supervisors. The validity of the tools was confirmed by face validity and content validity, and the reliability of the test was confirmed by test-retest (r = 0.82). After the data were extracted and encoded, they were analyzed using SPSS software version 11.5, descriptive statistics, the t-test, and Pearson’s test. Results: Among the midwifery graduates, 84.57% of them had confidence in the area of management of low-risk situations, and 55.51% had confidence in their ability to manage high-risk situations. The self-confidence levels of graduates in fulfilling clinical skills in the management of low-risk and high-risk situations were significantly different (P < 0.05). Clinical skills had a positive correlation with self-confidence (P < 0.05, r = 0.85). Conclusion: Improvements were needed in the self-confidence of graduates in fulfilling clinical skills in the management of high-risk situations. In order to achieve such improvement, it is necessary to identify and use methods of increasing graduates’ self-confidence in the learning environment by developing an enhanced midwifery curriculum and improved teaching methods

  7. The Role of Residential Early Parenting Services in Increasing Parenting Confidence in Mothers with A History of Infertility

    PubMed Central

    Khajehei, Marjan; Finch, Lynette

    2016-01-01

    Background Mothers with a history of infertility may experience parenting difficulties and challenges. This study was conducted to investigate the role of residential early parenting services in increasing parenting confidence in mothers with a history of infertility. Materials and Methods This was a retrospective chart review study using the quantitative data from the clients attending the Karitane Residential Units and Parenting Services (known as Karitane RUs) during 2013. Parenting confidence (using Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale-KPCS), depression, demographics, reproductive and medical history, as well as child’s information were assessed from a sample of 27 mothers who had a history of infertility and who attended the Karitane RUs for support and assistance. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 19. Results More than half of the women (59.3%) reported a relatively low level of parenting confidence on the day of admission. The rate of low parenting confidence, however, dropped to 22.2% after receiving 4-5 days support and training in the Karitane RUs. The mean score of the KPCS increased from 36.9 ± 5.6 before the intervention to 41.1 ± 3.4 after the intervention, indicating an improvement in the parenting confidence of the mothers after attending the Karitane RUs (P<0.0001). No statistically significant association was found between maternal low parenting confidence with parental demographics (including age, country of birth, and employment status), a history of help-seeking, symptoms of depression, as well as child’s information [including gender, age, siblings, diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD) and use of medication]. Conclusion Having a child after a period of infertility can be a stressful experience for some mothers. This can result in low parenting confidence and affect parent-child attachment. Our findings emphasized on the role of the residential early parenting services in promoting the level of parenting confidence

  8. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures.

    PubMed

    Bebu, Ionut; Luta, George; Mathew, Thomas; Agan, Brian K

    2016-01-01

    For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates. PMID:27322305

  9. Confidence measure and performance evaluation for HRRR-based classifiers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rago, Constantino; Zajic, Tim; Huff, Melvyn; Mehra, Raman K.; Mahler, Ronald P. S.; Noviskey, Michael J.

    2002-07-01

    The work presented here is a continuation of research first reported in Mahler, et. al. Our earlier efforts included integrating the Statistical Features algorithm with a Bayesian nonlinear filter, allowing simultaneous determination of target position, velocity, pose and type via maximum a posteriori estimation. We then considered three alternative classifiers: the first based on a principal component decomposition, the second on a linear discriminant approach, and the third on a wavelet representation. In addition, preliminary results were given with regards to assigning a measure of confidence to the output of the wavelet based classifier. In this paper we continue to address the problem of target classification based on high range resolution radar signatures. In particular, we examine the performance of a variant of the principal component based classifier as the number of principal components is varied. We have chosen to quantify the performance in terms of the Bhattacharyya distance. We also present further results regarding the assignment of confidence values to the output of the wavelet based classifier.

  10. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

    PubMed Central

    Bebu, Ionut; Luta, George; Mathew, Thomas; Agan, Brian K.

    2016-01-01

    For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates. PMID:27322305

  11. On Efficient Confidence Intervals for the Log-Normal Mean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chami, Peter; Antoine, Robin; Sahai, Ashok

    Data obtained in biomedical research is often skewed. Examples include the incubation period of diseases like HIV/AIDS and the survival times of cancer patients. Such data, especially when they are positive and skewed, is often modeled by the log-normal distribution. If this model holds, then the log transformation produces a normal distribution. We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the mean of the log-normal distribution. Several methods for doing this are known, including at least one estimator that performed better than Coxxs method for small sample sizes. We also construct a modified version of Coxxs method. Using simulation, we show that, when the sample size exceeds 30, it leads to confidence intervals that have good overall properties and are better than Coxxs method. More precisely, the actual coverage probability of our method is closer to the nominal coverage probability than is the case with Coxxs method. In addition, the new method is computationally much simpler than other well-known methods.

  12. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z=(z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y (sup 0) = (y (sub 1) (sup 0), ..., y (sub D (sup 0)), using full or partial knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y (sup 0). The data space Y containing y(sup 0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x, Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. Confidence set inference is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface.

  13. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  14. Activities-Specific Balance Confidence in People with Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1–6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Gocog, 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to −0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society. PMID:22919491

  15. Sustaining Vaccine Confidence in the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Hardt, Karin; Schmidt-Ott, Ruprecht; Glismann, Steffen; Adegbola, Richard A.; Meurice, François P.

    2013-01-01

    Vaccination provides many health and economic benefits to individuals and society, and public support for immunization programs is generally high. However, the benefits of vaccines are often not fully valued when public discussions on vaccine safety, quality or efficacy arise, and the spread of misinformation via the internet and other media has the potential to undermine immunization programs. Factors associated with improved public confidence in vaccines include evidence-based decision-making procedures and recommendations, controlled processes for licensing and monitoring vaccine safety and effectiveness and disease surveillance. Community engagement with appropriate communication approaches for each audience is a key factor in building trust in vaccines. Vaccine safety/quality issues should be handled rapidly and transparently by informing and involving those most affected and those concerned with public health in effective ways. Openness and transparency in the exchange of information between industry and other stakeholders is also important. To maximize the safety of vaccines, and thus sustain trust in vaccines, partnerships are needed between public health sector stakeholders. Vaccine confidence can be improved through collaborations that ensure high vaccine uptake rates and that inform the public and other stakeholders of the benefits of vaccines and how vaccine safety is constantly assessed, assured and communicated. PMID:26344109

  16. From ground to space: how to increase the confidence level in your flight optics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riede, W.; Allenspacher, P.; Lammers, M.; Wernham, D.; Ciapponi, A.; Heese, C.; Jensen, L.; Maedebach, H.; Schrameyer, S.; Ristau, D.

    2013-11-01

    To cover the preparatory test issues of upcoming ESA space laser missions, in joined effort amongst various laboratories, an adaptation of existing laser damage test benches has been performed. Conventional S-on-1 tests were extended with raster scanning procedures. Various aspects of characteristic damage curve issues are discussed. Sensitive surface analysis like time-of-flight SIMS is used to identify potential low density low damage threshold precursors. The inter-correlation of flight module testing and preceding single component testing is demonstrated. Finally, the successful execution of a flight module endurance test with more than 200 Mio. shots is detailed.

  17. A method for locating regions containing neural activation at a given confidence level from MEG data

    SciTech Connect

    Schmidt, D.M.; George, J.S.

    1996-02-01

    The MEG inverse problem does not have a general, unique solution. Unless restrictive model assumptions are made, there are generally many more free parameters than measurements and there exist silent sources - current distributions which produce no external magnetic field. By weighting solutions according to how well each fits our prior notion about what properties good solutions should have, it may be possible to obtain a single current distribution that best fits the data and our expectations. However, in general there will still exist a number of different current distributions which fit both the data and our prior expectations sufficiently well. For example, a simulated data set based on a single or several dipoles can generally be fit equally well by a distributed current minimum-norm reconstruction. In experimental data it is often possible to find a relatively small number of dipoles which both fit the data and have a norm not much larger than that of the minimum-norm solution. Moreover, the few-dipole solutions often have currents in different regions than the corresponding minimum-norm solution. Because there exist well-fitting current distributions which may have current in significantly different locations, it can be misleading to infer locations of stimulus-correlated neural activity based on a single, best-fitting current distribution. we demonstrate here a method for inferring the location and number of regions containing neural activation by considering all possible current distributions within a given model (not just the most likely one) weighted according to how well each fits both the data and our prior expectations.

  18. Robust Framework to Combine Diverse Classifiers Assigning Distributed Confidence to Individual Classifiers at Class Level

    PubMed Central

    Arshad, Sannia; Rho, Seungmin

    2014-01-01

    We have presented a classification framework that combines multiple heterogeneous classifiers in the presence of class label noise. An extension of m-Mediods based modeling is presented that generates model of various classes whilst identifying and filtering noisy training data. This noise free data is further used to learn model for other classifiers such as GMM and SVM. A weight learning method is then introduced to learn weights on each class for different classifiers to construct an ensemble. For this purpose, we applied genetic algorithm to search for an optimal weight vector on which classifier ensemble is expected to give the best accuracy. The proposed approach is evaluated on variety of real life datasets. It is also compared with existing standard ensemble techniques such as Adaboost, Bagging, and Random Subspace Methods. Experimental results show the superiority of proposed ensemble method as compared to its competitors, especially in the presence of class label noise and imbalance classes. PMID:25295302

  19. Key Concepts of Environmental Sustainability: Knowledge and Confidence Levels of FCS Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harden, Amy J.; Friesen, Carol A.; Thompson, Nancy E.

    2014-01-01

    Family and consumer sciences (FCS) is a logical discipline to promote environmental sustainability within the family because it is recognized as helping people make informed decisions about the well-being of individuals and their relationships and resources to achieve optimal quality of life.The objective of this article was to measure the…

  20. Autism Spectrum Disorders: Experience, Training, and Confidence Levels of School-Based Speech-Language Pathologists

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Plumb, Allison M.; Plexico, Laura W.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the graduate training experiences of school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) working with children with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). Comparisons were made between recent graduates (post 2006) and pre-2006 graduates to determine if differences existed in their academic and clinical experiences or their…

  1. Impact of Technology Based Instruction on Speech Competency and Presentation Confidence Levels of Hispanic College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mundy, Marie-Anne; Padilla Oviedo, Andres; Ramirez, Juan; Taylor, Nick; Flores, Itza

    2014-01-01

    One of the main goals of universities is to graduate students who are capable and competent in competing in the workforce. As presentational communication skills are critical in today's job market, Hispanic university students need to be trained to effectively develop and deliver presentational speeches. Web/technology enhanced training techniques…

  2. High School Students' Proficiency and Confidence Levels in Displaying Their Understanding of Basic Electrolysis Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sia, Ding Teng; Treagust, David F.; Chandrasegaran, A. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study was conducted with 330 Form 4 (grade 10) students (aged 15-16 years) who were involved in a course of instruction on electrolysis concepts. The main purposes of this study were (1) to assess high school chemistry students' understanding of 19 major principles of electrolysis using a recently developed 2-tier multiple-choice diagnostic…

  3. Secondary At-Risk Students' Online Course Self-Confidence Levels: An Exploratory Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dennison, Shane D.

    2012-01-01

    Many high school seniors are either not graduating on time or not graduating at all. A computer-based course recovery program could help many struggling districts in this area of need. This study employed a non-experimental quantitative approach to address possible relationships between computer-based instruction and learning outcomes. The sample…

  4. Entry-Level Athletic Trainers' Perceived Adequacy of Clinical Education in Preparation for Confident Professional Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shinew, Kayla A.

    2011-01-01

    Athletic training educators are responsible for giving athletic training students a proper environment in which they have opportunities to apply didactic knowledge using critical thinking and decision making skills in a real world context (Radtke, 2008). Clinical education needs to play an integral role in developing athletic training students…

  5. How Special Are Teachers of Specialized Schools? Assessing Self-Confidence Levels in the Technology Domain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Çatma, Zehra; Corlu, Mehmet Sencer

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates whether specialized high school mathematics teachers, chosen to educate selected students, are mentally ready to integrate Fatih project technologies into their teaching. Forty mathematics teachers from randomly selected specialized and general high schools in Ankara responded to a survey comprising 31 items grouped under…

  6. Professional confidence and job satisfaction: an examination of counselors' perceptions in faith-based and non-faith-based drug treatment programs.

    PubMed

    Chu, Doris C; Sung, Hung-En

    2014-08-01

    Understanding substance abuse counselors' professional confidence and job satisfaction is important since such confidence and satisfaction can affect the way counselors go about their jobs. Analyzing data derived from a random sample of 110 counselors from faith-based and non-faith-based treatment programs, this study examines counselors' professional confidence and job satisfaction in both faith-based and non-faith-based programs. The multivariate analyses indicate years of experience and being a certified counselor were the only significant predictors of professional confidence. There was no significant difference in perceived job satisfaction and confidence between counselors in faith-based and non-faith-based programs. A majority of counselors in both groups expressed a high level of satisfaction with their job. Job experience in drug counseling and prior experience as an abuser were perceived by counselors as important components to facilitate counseling skills. Policy implications are discussed. PMID:23788288

  7. Allocating resources and building confidence in public-safety decisions for nuclear waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, K L; Wilder, D G

    1999-05-21

    There are three basic ways to protect the public from the hazards of exposure to radionuclides in nuclear waste: completely contain the waste; limit the rate at which radionuclides are released; and, once radionuclides are released, minimize their impact by reducing concentrations and retarding transport. A geologic repository system that implements all three provides maximum protection for the public: if one element fails, the others serve to protect. This is ''defense-in-depth.'' Demonstrating confidence in the ability of a designed system to provide the requisite safety to the public must rely on a combination of the following aspects relating to engineered and natural system components: 1 Knowledge or understanding of properties and processes 2 Uniformity of (or ability to understand or control) the range of variability associated with each component 3 Experience over time This paper proposes a tool based on defining a ''confidence region'' determined by these three essential aspects of confidence. The defense-in-depth decision-making tool described identifies the portion of the ultimate confidence region that is not well demonstrated and indicates where there is potential for changing a specific component's confidence region, therefore providing in-formation for decisions on emphasis--either for demonstrating performance or for focusing on further studies. The US Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP), wherein Yucca Mountain is being investigated as a potential site for a nuclear waste repository, and the Swedish geologic repository studies are used as examples of this tool. of protective or operating components such that failure of a single component does not by itself lead to system failure. The greater the exposure to loss, the greater the requirements for design margins (the margin of conservatism associated with the fabrication and operation of important components in complex engineering projects) or for compensation by defense-in-depth. Thus

  8. Facial Comparison from CCTV footage: The competence and confidence of the jury.

    PubMed

    Walker, Heather; Tough, Ann

    2015-12-01

    CCTV footage is commonly used in the court room to help visualise the crime in question and to help identify the offender. Unfortunately the majority of surveillance cameras produce such poor quality images that the task of identifying individuals can be extremely difficult. This study aimed at determining whether the task of identifying the offender in CCTV footage was one which a jury should be competent to do, or whether expert evidence would be beneficial in such cases. The ability of potential jury members, the general public, was tested by asking participants to play the role of a jury member by means of an online survey. Potential jury members viewed CCTV in which a simulated offence took place, and were subsequently asked to compare still images of a defendant to the offender to try to determine if they were competent and confident about making a judgement as to whether the defendant committed the crime. Factors such as age, gender and profession of the potential jury members were considered, as well as the type of crime committed, in order to establish if these play any role in the decision made by potential jury members. These factors did not appear to play a significant role; however confidence was also investigated and it became very evident that this was a factor that must be taken into consideration when determining the requirement for expert contribution in facial comparisons. Jury members may well be willing and competent to a basic level in carrying out a facial comparison but if they lack a certain level of confidence in their ability and decision making then this task is more suitable for an expert with experience and skills in this field. PMID:26654085

  9. Confidence-based ensemble for GBM brain tumor segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Jing; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Okada, Kazunori; Kim, Hyun J.; Pope, Whitney; Goldin, Jonathan; Brown, Matthew

    2011-03-01

    It is a challenging task to automatically segment glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumors on T1w post-contrast isotropic MR images. A semi-automated system using fuzzy connectedness has recently been developed for computing the tumor volume that reduces the cost of manual annotation. In this study, we propose a an ensemble method that combines multiple segmentation results into a final ensemble one. The method is evaluated on a dataset of 20 cases from a multi-center pharmaceutical drug trial and compared to the fuzzy connectedness method. Three individual methods were used in the framework: fuzzy connectedness, GrowCut, and voxel classification. The combination method is a confidence map averaging (CMA) method. The CMA method shows an improved ROC curve compared to the fuzzy connectedness method (p < 0.001). The CMA ensemble result is more robust compared to the three individual methods.

  10. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification.

    PubMed

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date. PMID:27571918

  11. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

  12. Gaining Confidence in Navigating Rosetta at Mars Swing-By

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crammn, Ruediger; Budnik, Frank

    2007-01-01

    The Mars swing-by in the early morning of the 25th of February 2007 was one of the most critical events the Rosetta mission has experienced so far on its way to the comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The closest approach took place at a distance of only 250 km from the planet s surface. Missing the optimal target would have translated into considerable fuel cost. In order to achieve confidence in operating through this highly critical mission phase, a navigation analysis exercise was carried out beforehand. This paper describes the purpose and the chosen approach for this preparatory Flight Dynamics activity. It presents and discusses results of the analysis. Emphasis is put on the question of what is needed to simulate a valuable data set representative for operations. The results of the navigation analysis are compared with real data obtained during swing-by operations.

  13. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-10-10

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  14. Unconscious information changes decision accuracy but not confidence.

    PubMed

    Vlassova, Alexandra; Donkin, Chris; Pearson, Joel

    2014-11-11

    The controversial idea that information can be processed and evaluated unconsciously to change behavior has had a particularly impactful history. Here, we extend a simple model of conscious decision-making to explain both conscious and unconscious accumulation of decisional evidence. Using a novel dichoptic suppression paradigm to titrate conscious and unconscious evidence, we show that unconscious information can be accumulated over time and integrated with conscious elements presented either before or after to boost or diminish decision accuracy. The unconscious information could only be used when some conscious decision-relevant information was also present. These data are fit well by a simple diffusion model in which the rate and variability of evidence accumulation is reduced but not eliminated by the removal of conscious awareness. Surprisingly, the unconscious boost in accuracy was not accompanied by corresponding increases in confidence, suggesting that we have poor metacognition for unconscious decisional evidence. PMID:25349435

  15. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects

    PubMed Central

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  16. Leveraging waveform complexity for confident detection of gravitational waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanner, Jonah B.; Littenberg, Tyson B.; Cornish, Neil; Millhouse, Meg; Xhakaj, Enia; Salemi, Francesco; Drago, Marco; Vedovato, Gabriele; Klimenko, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    The recent completion of Advanced LIGO suggests that gravitational waves may soon be directly observed. Past searches for gravitational-wave transients have been impacted by transient noise artifacts, known as glitches, introduced into LIGO data due to instrumental and environmental effects. In this work, we explore how waveform complexity, instead of signal-to-noise ratio, can be used to rank event candidates and distinguish short duration astrophysical signals from glitches. We test this framework using a new hierarchical pipeline that directly compares the Bayesian evidence of explicit signal and glitch models. The hierarchical pipeline is shown to perform well and, in particular, to allow high-confidence detections of a range of waveforms at a realistic signal-to-noise ratio with a two-detector network.

  17. The mechanical career of Councillor Orffyreus, confidence man

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Alejandro

    2013-06-01

    In the early 18th century, J. E. E. Bessler, known as Orffyreus, constructed several wheels that he claimed could keep turning forever, powered only by gravity. He never revealed the details of his invention, but he conducted demonstrations (with the machine's inner workings covered) that persuaded competent observers that he might have discovered the secret of perpetual motion. Among Bessler's defenders were Gottfried Leibniz, Johann Bernoulli, Professor Willem 's Gravesande of Leiden University (who wrote to Isaac Newton on the subject), and Prince Karl, ruler of the German state of Hesse-Kassel. We review Bessler's work, placing it within the context of the intellectual debates of the time about mechanical conservation laws and the (im)possibility of perpetual motion. We also mention Bessler's long career as a confidence man, the details of which were discussed in popular 19th-century German publications but have remained unfamiliar to authors in other languages.

  18. Measuring Intuition: Nonconscious Emotional Information Boosts Decision Accuracy and Confidence.

    PubMed

    Lufityanto, Galang; Donkin, Chris; Pearson, Joel

    2016-05-01

    The long-held popular notion of intuition has garnered much attention both academically and popularly. Although most people agree that there is such a phenomenon as intuition, involving emotionally charged, rapid, unconscious processes, little compelling evidence supports this notion. Here, we introduce a technique in which subliminal emotional information is presented to subjects while they make fully conscious sensory decisions. Our behavioral and physiological data, along with evidence-accumulator models, show that nonconscious emotional information can boost accuracy and confidence in a concurrent emotion-free decision task, while also speeding up response times. Moreover, these effects were contingent on the specific predictive arrangement of the nonconscious emotional valence and motion direction in the decisional stimulus. A model that simultaneously accumulates evidence from both physiological skin conductance and conscious decisional information provides an accurate description of the data. These findings support the notion that nonconscious emotions can bias concurrent nonemotional behavior-a process of intuition. PMID:27052557

  19. Confidence-Guided Local Structure Prediction with HHfrag

    PubMed Central

    Kalev, Ivan; Habeck, Michael

    2013-01-01

    We present a method to assess the reliability of local structure prediction from sequence. We introduce a greedy algorithm for filtering and enrichment of dynamic fragment libraries, compiled with remote-homology detection methods such as HHfrag. After filtering false hits at each target position, we reduce the fragment library to a minimal set of representative fragments, which are guaranteed to have correct local structure in regions of detectable conservation. We demonstrate that the location of conserved motifs in a protein sequence can be predicted by examining the recurrence and structural homogeneity of detected fragments. The resulting confidence score correlates with the local RMSD of the representative fragments and allows us to predict torsion angles from sequence with better accuracy compared to existing machine learning methods. PMID:24146881

  20. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  1. Cascaded classifiers for confidence-based chemical named entity recognition

    PubMed Central

    Corbett, Peter; Copestake, Ann

    2008-01-01

    Background Chemical named entities represent an important facet of biomedical text. Results We have developed a system to use character-based n-grams, Maximum Entropy Markov Models and rescoring to recognise chemical names and other such entities, and to make confidence estimates for the extracted entities. An adjustable threshold allows the system to be tuned to high precision or high recall. At a threshold set for balanced precision and recall, we were able to extract named entities at an F score of 80.7% from chemistry papers and 83.2% from PubMed abstracts. Furthermore, we were able to achieve 57.6% and 60.3% recall at 95% precision, and 58.9% and 49.1% precision at 90% recall. Conclusion These results show that chemical named entities can be extracted with good performance, and that the properties of the extraction can be tuned to suit the demands of the task. PMID:19025690

  2. Improving Semi-Global Matching: Cost Aggregation and Confidence Measure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    d'Angelo, Pablo

    2016-06-01

    Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM) algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  3. Establishing confidence in complex physics codes: Art or science?

    SciTech Connect

    Trucano, T.

    1997-12-31

    The ALEGRA shock wave physics code, currently under development at Sandia National Laboratories and partially supported by the US Advanced Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI), is generic to a certain class of physics codes: large, multi-application, intended to support a broad user community on the latest generation of massively parallel supercomputer, and in a continual state of formal development. To say that the author has ``confidence`` in the results of ALEGRA is to say something different than that he believes that ALEGRA is ``predictive.`` It is the purpose of this talk to illustrate the distinction between these two concepts. The author elects to perform this task in a somewhat historical manner. He will summarize certain older approaches to code validation. He views these methods as aiming to establish the predictive behavior of the code. These methods are distinguished by their emphasis on local information. He will conclude that these approaches are more art than science.

  4. Rasch analyses of the Wheelchair Use Confidence Scale

    PubMed Central

    Sakakibara, Brodie M.; Miller, William C.; Rushton, Paula W.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To compare the functioning of the Wheelchair Use Confidence Scale’s 101-point response format with shortened 11-point formats, and to evaluate the scale’s measurement properties using principal components and Rasch analyses. Design Secondary analysis of cross-sectional data. Setting Community. Participants Volunteer participants from British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, Canada were manual wheelchair-users (n=220), ≥19 years of age, with ≥6 months experience with daily wheelchair-use, and no cognitive impairment. Intervention None. Measurements 65-item Wheelchair Use Confidence Scale (WheelCon). Results The 11-point response format outperformed the original 101-point format. Principal components analyses confirmed the presence of two dimensions: 1) Mobility efficacy; and 2) Self-management efficacy. Thirteen items in the Mobility efficacy subscale, and eight items in the Self-management efficacy subscale fit the Rasch Rating Scale model. Five items misfit the model developed using the 21-items from both subscales. In each of the 13- and 8-item subscales, and the 21-item short form, the two lowest and highest scores had internal consistency reliability estimates below 0.70; all other scores had reliability estimates above 0.70. Conclusion The WheelCon is comprised of two dimensions. The recoded measurements using a 0 to 10 response scale from the 13-item mobility and 8-item self-management efficacy subscales have good reliability as do the measurements from the 21-item WheelCon Short Form. The use of the subscales and/or the short form depends on the context in which they are being considered. Research to establish the reliability and validity of the measurements using the 0 to 10 response format is warranted. PMID:25461823

  5. Modernizing confidence-building measures for the Biological Weapons Convention.

    PubMed

    Koblentz, Gregory D; Chevrier, Marie Isabelle

    2011-09-01

    The Seventh Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention in December 2011 provides an opportunity to modernize the treaty to better address the challenges of the 21st century. The key to this modernization is to redesign the treaty's Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs), the only formal mechanism for increasing transparency and demonstrating compliance with the treaty, to address changes in the global scientific, health, and security environments since the end of the Cold War. The scope of the CBMs should be expanded beyond state-run biological warfare programs to encompass a broader array of threats to global security, such as biological terrorism, laboratory accidents, dual-use research, and disease pandemics. Modernizing the CBM mechanism to take into account these new risks would extend the transparency-enhancing benefits of CBMs to a range of new and important topics, such as biosafety, laboratory biosecurity, and dual-use research oversight; make the CBMs and the treaty itself more relevant to the concerns and priorities of more states; and build on progress made during the recent series of intersessional meetings. To accomplish this, the CBMs need to be revised to shift their focus from hardware, the dual-use capabilities relevant to the treaty, to software, the political and legal institutions that govern the development and use of these capabilities. A more modern CBM mechanism should encourage greater participation in the confidence-building process, improve international cooperation against the full spectrum of biological risks, and promote the goal of universal membership in the treaty. PMID:21819226

  6. A modified VAPEPS method for predicting vibroacoustic response of unreinforced mass loaded honeycomb panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcnelis, Mark E.

    1989-01-01

    VAPEPS (VibroAcoustic Payload Environment Prediction System) is a computer program used to predict the vibroacoustic response of a structure. An alternate VAPEPS modeling technique, the Modified NASA Lewis Method, is an improvement for modeling unreinforced mass loaded honeycomb panels. The Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction is compared to the standard ASMS VAPEPS prediction, and the acoustic test data for three spacecraft panels. An analytical method of computing variance is presented and used to compute 95 percent confidence levels. These levels are compared to the standard VAPEPS confidence levels and to the envelope of the test data. As a result of using the new methodology suggested in the paper, both the mean prediction and the 95 percent confidence level prediction agree well with the test data in both spectral shape and magnitude. Therefore, the Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction methodology may be used to define more realistic random vibration test levels.

  7. Teaching and learning: Novice teachers' descriptions of their confidence to teach science content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Barbara Ann

    Statement of the problem. The problem being studied in this research is the relationship between a specific series of integrated science courses in a science teacher preparation program and the actual needs of the science teacher during the first years of teaching practice. Teachers often report that there is a disconnect between the coursework they have taken in college as pre-service teachers and the reality of their classroom practice during their first years of teaching. The intent of this study was to record the descriptions of three teachers who were members of a cohort and took a series of integrated science courses (NSCI series) during their teacher preparation program as it related to the influence of these courses on their teaching practice. The focus of inquiry is guided by a single question: How do former participants in the series of science courses who are currently novice teachers describe their confidence in their ability to teach science content to their middle school students? The theoretical framework was based on Shulman's (1987) pedagogical content knowledge (PCK). PCK involves the teacher understanding the content of science so thoroughly that ways are identified of representing and formulating the subject matter to make it understandable to others. The teacher who has a strong PCK uses powerful analogies, illustrations, examples, explanations and demonstrations that promote personally meaningful student understandings. Novice teachers' reflections on their confidence to teach science content to their middle school students were observed through the lens of PCK. All three novice teachers reported a high confidence level to teach middle school science and attributed their confidence level to a great degree to the integrated science series of courses (NSCI). Method. A qualitative design, specifically a case study, was used for this study. Multiple forms of data collection were employed including a semi structured interview and a focus group

  8. Developing confidence in mental health students to recognise and manage physical health problems using a learning intervention.

    PubMed

    Chadwick, Angelina Lilja; Withnell, Neil

    2016-07-01

    Globally, there is increased recognition of a higher prevalence of physical ill health and mortality in individuals with mental health problems. A review of the literature highlighted the need to address deterioration in physical health of those with mental health problems through better recognition and management on the part of mental health nurses. However, mental health nurses have been found to lack confidence and be unsure of their role within this area. The aim of the project was to develop pre-registration mental health students' confidence to be able to recognise and manage physical health deterioration through the use of high fidelity human patient simulation, the development of contextualised clinical scenarios and additional theory around the A to E mnemonic structured assessment. The project involved 95 third year mental health student nurses, using a self-rating pre and post intervention questionnaire to measure their perceived confidence levels and to evaluate the effectiveness of the learning intervention. Findings demonstrate improved overall confidence levels in recognising and managing physical health deterioration in human patient simulators displaying mental health problems. PMID:27428688

  9. A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mainen, Zachary F.

    2012-01-01

    Confidence judgements, self-assessments about the quality of a subject's knowledge, are considered a central example of metacognition. Prima facie, introspection and self-report appear the only way to access the subjective sense of confidence or uncertainty. Contrary to this notion, overt behavioural measures can be used to study confidence judgements by animals trained in decision-making tasks with perceptual or mnemonic uncertainty. Here, we suggest that a computational approach can clarify the issues involved in interpreting these tasks and provide a much needed springboard for advancing the scientific understanding of confidence. We first review relevant theories of probabilistic inference and decision-making. We then critically discuss behavioural tasks employed to measure confidence in animals and show how quantitative models can help to constrain the computational strategies underlying confidence-reporting behaviours. In our view, post-decision wagering tasks with continuous measures of confidence appear to offer the best available metrics of confidence. Since behavioural reports alone provide a limited window into mechanism, we argue that progress calls for measuring the neural representations and identifying the computations underlying confidence reports. We present a case study using such a computational approach to study the neural correlates of decision confidence in rats. This work shows that confidence assessments may be considered higher order, but can be generated using elementary neural computations that are available to a wide range of species. Finally, we discuss the relationship of confidence judgements to the wider behavioural uses of confidence and uncertainty. PMID:22492750

  10. A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mainen, Zachary F

    2012-05-19

    Confidence judgements, self-assessments about the quality of a subject's knowledge, are considered a central example of metacognition. Prima facie, introspection and self-report appear the only way to access the subjective sense of confidence or uncertainty. Contrary to this notion, overt behavioural measures can be used to study confidence judgements by animals trained in decision-making tasks with perceptual or mnemonic uncertainty. Here, we suggest that a computational approach can clarify the issues involved in interpreting these tasks and provide a much needed springboard for advancing the scientific understanding of confidence. We first review relevant theories of probabilistic inference and decision-making. We then critically discuss behavioural tasks employed to measure confidence in animals and show how quantitative models can help to constrain the computational strategies underlying confidence-reporting behaviours. In our view, post-decision wagering tasks with continuous measures of confidence appear to offer the best available metrics of confidence. Since behavioural reports alone provide a limited window into mechanism, we argue that progress calls for measuring the neural representations and identifying the computations underlying confidence reports. We present a case study using such a computational approach to study the neural correlates of decision confidence in rats. This work shows that confidence assessments may be considered higher order, but can be generated using elementary neural computations that are available to a wide range of species. Finally, we discuss the relationship of confidence judgements to the wider behavioural uses of confidence and uncertainty. PMID:22492750

  11. Self-confidence for emergency intervention: adaptation and cultural validation of the Self-confidence Scale in nursing students

    PubMed Central

    Martins, José Carlos Amado; Baptista, Rui Carlos Negrão; Coutinho, Verónica Rita Dias; Mazzo, Alessandra; Rodrigues, Manuel Alves; Mendes, Isabel Amélia Costa

    2014-01-01

    Objective: develop the cultural adaptation and validation of a Portuguese version of the Self-confidence Scale. Method: descriptive and exploratory methodological research for the adaptation and validation of a measuring instrument. The translation, synthesis, back-translation, revision, pretest and semantic evaluation phases were accomplished. The evaluation involving 178 students from a Teaching Diploma Program in Nursing. The ethical principles were complied with. Results: the internal consistency analysis of the scale reveals good Alpha coefficients (0.92 for the global scale and superior to 0.83 for the different dimensions). The factor analysis presents a three-factor solution with rational meaning. Conclusion: The scale is easy to answer and understand. Based on the obtained results, it can be affirmed that the scale reveals good psychometric properties, with great potential to be used in future research. PMID:25054868

  12. The Relation between Nursing Administration’s Self-Confidence and the Staff’s Vocational Satisfaction

    PubMed Central

    FARZIANPOUR, Fereshteh; HOSSEINI, Seyyed Mostafa; MOVAHED KOR, Elham; HOSSEINI, Shayan; AMERZADEH, Mohamad; AHMADI, Batul

    2013-01-01

    Background Self-confidence is a glorious feature of an effective administrator. Their main goal is the organizational success. Therefore, we approached this idea by evaluating the self-confidence of nursing Administration in Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS) Teaching Hospitals and its relation to vocational satisfaction of the staff. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, we interviewed 200 nursing administrators and 200 staff in different departments of the TUMS Teaching Hospitals using a standardized questionnaire to assess the self-confidence among nursing administrators and staff satisfaction. Data were entered in SPSS (17.0) and analyzed using this software and STATA (11.0) using non-parametric tests and Spearman’s correlation of coefficient. The significant level was set as P<0.05. Results: Of 200 nursing administrators 58 (29%) were male and 142 (71%) were female. Mean ± SD of the self-confidence score for the nursing administrators was 134.9 ± 19.8. Among the staff 68 (34%) were male and 132 (66%) were female. The mean ± SD of the vocational satisfaction for staff was 89.12 ± 18.3. After considering the effect of departments in a regression model, the correlation between nursing administration’s self-confidence and the staff’s vocational satisfaction was found not significant (P=0.055). Conclusion: Gender and years of employment were the only factors affecting self-confidence and vocational satisfaction between the nursing administration and staff respectively, which not significantly correlated after adjustment. PMID:23785681

  13. ROCS: A reproducibility index and confidence score for interaction proteomics

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Affinity-Purification Mass-Spectrometry (AP-MS) provides a powerful means of identifying protein complexes and interactions. Several important challenges exist in interpreting the results of AP-MS experiments. First, the reproducibility of AP-MS experimental replicates can be low, due both to technical variability and the dynamic nature of protein interactions in the cell. Second, the identification of true protein-protein interactions in AP-MS experiments is subject to inaccuracy due to high false negative and false positive rates. Several experimental approaches can be used to mitigate these drawbacks, including the use of replicated and control experiments and relative quantification to sensitively distinguish true interacting proteins from false ones. Results To address the issues of reproducibility and accuracy of protein-protein interactions, we introduce a two-step method, called ROCS, which makes use of Indicator Proteins to select reproducible AP-MS experiments, and of Confidence Scores to select specific protein-protein interactions. The Indicator Proteins account for measures of protein identification as well as protein reproducibility, effectively allowing removal of outlier experiments that contribute noise and affect downstream inferences. The filtered set of experiments is then used in the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) scoring step. Prey protein scoring is done by computing a Confidence Score, which accounts for the probability of occurrence of prey proteins in the bait experiments relative to the control experiment, where the significance cutoff parameter is estimated by simultaneously controlling false positives and false negatives against metrics of false discovery rate and biological coherence respectively. In summary, the ROCS method relies on automatic objective criterions for parameter estimation and error-controlled procedures. We illustrate the performance of our method by applying it to five previously published AP

  14. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND STANDARD ERROR INTERVALS: WHAT DO THEY MEAN IN TERMS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We investigate the use of confidence intervals and standard error intervals to draw conclusions regarding tests of hypotheses about normal population means. Mathematical expressions and algebraic manipulations are given, and computer simulations are performed to assess the usefulness of confidence ...

  15. Effectiveness of skills-based training using the Drink-less package to increase family practitioner confidence in intervening for alcohol use disorders

    PubMed Central

    Proude, Elizabeth M; Conigrave, Katherine M; Haber, Paul S

    2006-01-01

    Background Misuse of alcohol is second only to tobacco as a leading cause of preventable death in Australia. There is an opportunity in family practice to detect problems and intervene with people at risk of alcohol-related harm before complications occur. However, family practitioners (FPs) report low levels of confidence in managing patients with drinking problems. The aim of this study was to determine whether the interactive training session using the 'Drink-less' package led to improvement in FPs' self-reported level of confidence in detecting and providing interventions for risky alcohol consumption. Method FPs in urban and rural New South Wales were invited to training sessions in their local area. An introductory overview preceded a practical skills- based session, using the Drink-less package. Participants completed before and after evaluation forms. Results While 49% (CI 43 – 55) of the attending FPs indicated at baseline that they felt confident in identifying at-risk drinkers, this proportion rose to 90% (95% CI: 87 – 93) post-session, and they also reported increases in confidence from 36% (95% CI: 31 – 41) to 90% in their ability to advise patients. Urban FPs reported lower levels of confidence than rural FPs, both pre- and post-session. Conclusion Training sessions in the Drink-less intervention resulted in increased self-reported confidence in detection and brief intervention for alcohol problems. Further research is needed to determine the duration of this effect and its influence on practice behaviour. PMID:16457737

  16. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    PubMed

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system. PMID:26710335

  17. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M.

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system. PMID:26710335

  18. Concept of a (1-. cap alpha. ) performance confidence interval

    SciTech Connect

    Leong, H.H.; Johnson, G.R.; Bechtel, T.N.

    1980-01-01

    A multi-input, single-output system is assumed to be represented by some model. The distribution functions of the input and the output variables are considered to be at least obtainable through experimental data. Associated with the computer response of the model corresponding to given inputs, a conditional pseudoresponse set is generated. This response can be constructed by means of the model by using the simulated pseudorandom input variates from a neighborhood defined by a preassigned probability allowance. A pair of such pseudoresponse values can then be computed by a procedure corresponding to a (1-..cap alpha..) probability for the conditional pseudoresponse set. The range defined by such a pair is called a (1-..cap alpha..) performance confidence interval with respect to the model. The application of this concept can allow comparison of the merit of two models describing the same system, or it can detect a system change when the current response is out of the performance interval with respect to the previously identified model. 6 figures.

  19. Efficient network meta-analysis: a confidence distribution approach*

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Guang; Liu, Dungang; Liu, Regina Y.; Xie, Minge; Hoaglin, David C.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Network meta-analysis synthesizes several studies of multiple treatment comparisons to simultaneously provide inference for all treatments in the network. It can often strengthen inference on pairwise comparisons by borrowing evidence from other comparisons in the network. Current network meta-analysis approaches are derived from either conventional pairwise meta-analysis or hierarchical Bayesian methods. This paper introduces a new approach for network meta-analysis by combining confidence distributions (CDs). Instead of combining point estimators from individual studies in the conventional approach, the new approach combines CDs which contain richer information than point estimators and thus achieves greater efficiency in its inference. The proposed CD approach can e ciently integrate all studies in the network and provide inference for all treatments even when individual studies contain only comparisons of subsets of the treatments. Through numerical studies with real and simulated data sets, the proposed approach is shown to outperform or at least equal the traditional pairwise meta-analysis and a commonly used Bayesian hierarchical model. Although the Bayesian approach may yield comparable results with a suitably chosen prior, it is highly sensitive to the choice of priors (especially the prior of the between-trial covariance structure), which is often subjective. The CD approach is a general frequentist approach and is prior-free. Moreover, it can always provide a proper inference for all the treatment effects regardless of the between-trial covariance structure. PMID:25067933

  20. Can we confidently diagnose pilomatricoma with fine needle aspiration cytology?

    PubMed

    Wong, Yin-Ping; Masir, Noraidah; Sharifah, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical 'lymphadenopathy', and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. 'Ghost cells' were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic 'ghost cells' and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized. PMID:25892955

  1. Can We Confidently Diagnose Pilomatricoma with Fine Needle Aspiration Cytology?

    PubMed Central

    WONG, Yin-Ping; MASIR, Noraidah; SHARIFAH, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical ‘lymphadenopathy’, and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. ‘Ghost cells’ were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic ‘ghost cells’ and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized. PMID:25892955

  2. Confidence in government and vaccination willingness in the USA.

    PubMed

    Mesch, Gustavo S; Schwirian, Kent P

    2015-06-01

    The most recent internationally widespread disease outbreak occurred during the flu season of 2009 and 2010. On April 2009, the first cases of influenza A (H1N1) (Popularly called, Swine Flu) were confirmed in the USA and UK following a novel virus that was first identified in Mexico. As the virus spread rapidly, the risk of morbidity and mortality increased in several countries. In this paper, we rely on the social cognitive theory of risk to assess the willingness of the US public to comply with vaccination and reduce the risk of sickness and death from the flu. We conduct a secondary data analysis of the Pew Research for the People and Press October 2009 and investigate the factors associated with willingness to take the swine flu vaccine (n = 1000). The findings indicate that the decision to take the swine flu vaccination was highly polarized across partisan lines. Controlling for education, income and demographic factors, the likelihood of taking the vaccine was associated with party identification. Individuals that identified themselves as Democrats were more likely to be willing to take the swine vaccine than individuals that identify themselves as Republicans and Independents. Confidence in the ability of the government to deal with the swine flu crisis seems to explain party identification differences in the willingness to take the vaccine. The implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25369794

  3. Behavior Detection using Confidence Intervals of Hidden Markov Models

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, Christopher H

    2009-01-01

    Markov models are commonly used to analyze real-world problems. Their combination of discrete states and stochastic transitions is suited to applications with deterministic and stochastic components. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a class of Markov model commonly used in pattern recognition. Currently, HMMs recognize patterns using a maximum likelihood approach. One major drawback with this approach is that data observations are mapped to HMMs without considering the number of data samples available. Another problem is that this approach is only useful for choosing between HMMs. It does not provide a criteria for determining whether or not a given HMM adequately matches the data stream. In this work, we recognize complex behaviors using HMMs and confidence intervals. The certainty of a data match increases with the number of data samples considered. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves are used to find the optimal threshold for either accepting or rejecting a HMM description. We present one example using a family of HMM's to show the utility of the proposed approach. A second example using models extracted from a database of consumer purchases provides additional evidence that this approach can perform better than existing techniques.

  4. Using argument notation to engineer biological simulations with increased confidence

    PubMed Central

    Alden, Kieran; Andrews, Paul S.; Polack, Fiona A. C.; Veiga-Fernandes, Henrique; Coles, Mark C.; Timmis, Jon

    2015-01-01

    The application of computational and mathematical modelling to explore the mechanics of biological systems is becoming prevalent. To significantly impact biological research, notably in developing novel therapeutics, it is critical that the model adequately represents the captured system. Confidence in adopting in silico approaches can be improved by applying a structured argumentation approach, alongside model development and results analysis. We propose an approach based on argumentation from safety-critical systems engineering, where a system is subjected to a stringent analysis of compliance against identified criteria. We show its use in examining the biological information upon which a model is based, identifying model strengths, highlighting areas requiring additional biological experimentation and providing documentation to support model publication. We demonstrate our use of structured argumentation in the development of a model of lymphoid tissue formation, specifically Peyer's Patches. The argumentation structure is captured using Artoo (www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software/artoo), our Web-based tool for constructing fitness-for-purpose arguments, using a notation based on the safety-critical goal structuring notation. We show how argumentation helps in making the design and structured analysis of a model transparent, capturing the reasoning behind the inclusion or exclusion of each biological feature and recording assumptions, as well as pointing to evidence supporting model-derived conclusions. PMID:25589574

  5. Fuzzy confidence regions for the Taguchi capability index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramezani, Zeinab; Parchami, Abbas; Mashinchi, Mashaallah

    2011-06-01

    Most of the traditional methods for assessing the capability of manufacturing processes are dealing with crisp quality. In quality control, such as other statistical problems, we may confront imprecise concepts. One case is a situation in which specification limits (SLs) are imprecise. In this situation, the fuzzy process capability indices (PCIs) ? , ? and ? are necessary for measuring the fuzzy quality in an in-control process. These fuzzy capability indices are also helpful for comparing manufacturing processes with SLs. The fuzzy capability index ? is used to provide an assessment of the ability of the fuzzy process to be clustered around the target value. The emphasis on the use of ? over the other two fuzzy indices, ? and ? , is due to its definition that provides indications of both the process variability and deviation of process mean from a specified target. In this article, by using triangular fuzzy SLs, we present four approximate ? fuzzy confidence regions for the fuzzy PCI ? . A numerical example is given to show the performance of the method.

  6. Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weber, Deborah A.

    Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

  7. An Integrated Understanding of Confidence and User Calibration in Information Systems Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Fengchun

    2012-01-01

    Dealing with uncertainty is a critical part of human decision-making and confidence reflects one's belief about the relative likelihood that various outcomes occur when making decision under uncertainty. Unfortunately, confidence often deviates from the actual quality of the decision, leading to under- or over-confidence. Calibration, the…

  8. Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

  9. Combining one-sample confidence procedures for inference in the two-sample case.

    PubMed

    Fay, Michael P; Proschan, Michael A; Brittain, Erica

    2015-03-01

    We present a simple general method for combining two one-sample confidence procedures to obtain inferences in the two-sample problem. Some applications give striking connections to established methods; for example, combining exact binomial confidence procedures gives new confidence intervals on the difference or ratio of proportions that match inferences using Fisher's exact test, and numeric studies show the associated confidence intervals bound the type I error rate. Combining exact one-sample Poisson confidence procedures recreates standard confidence intervals on the ratio, and introduces new ones for the difference. Combining confidence procedures associated with one-sample t-tests recreates the Behrens-Fisher intervals. Other applications provide new confidence intervals with fewer assumptions than previously needed. For example, the method creates new confidence intervals on the difference in medians that do not require shift and continuity assumptions. We create a new confidence interval for the difference between two survival distributions at a fixed time point when there is independent censoring by combining the recently developed beta product confidence procedure for each single sample. The resulting interval is designed to guarantee coverage regardless of sample size or censoring distribution, and produces equivalent inferences to Fisher's exact test when there is no censoring. We show theoretically that when combining intervals asymptotically equivalent to normal intervals, our method has asymptotically accurate coverage. Importantly, all situations studied suggest guaranteed nominal coverage for our new interval whenever the original confidence procedures themselves guarantee coverage. PMID:25274182

  10. Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2011-01-01

    Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

  11. Cheap Talk and Credibility: The Consequences of Confidence and Accuracy on Advisor Credibility and Persuasiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sah, Sunita; Moore, Don A.; MacCoun, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Is it possible to increase one's influence simply by behaving more confidently? Prior research presents two competing hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the…

  12. Pre-Service Geography Teachers' Confidence in Geographical Subject Matter Knowledge and Teaching Geographical Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harte, Wendy; Reitano, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This research tracked the confidence of 16 undergraduate and postgraduate pre-service geography teachers as they completed a single semester, senior phase geography curriculum course. The study focused specifically on the pre-service teachers' confidence in geographical subject matter knowledge and their confidence in teaching geographical skills.…

  13. Combining One-Sample Confidence Procedures for Inference in the Two-Sample Case

    PubMed Central

    Fay, Michael P.; Proschan, Michael A.; Brittain, Erica

    2016-01-01

    Summary We present a simple general method for combining two one-sample confidence procedures to obtain inferences in the two-sample problem. Some applications give striking connections to established methods; for example, combining exact binomial confidence procedures gives new confidence intervals on the difference or ratio of proportions that match inferences using Fisher’s exact test, and numeric studies show the associated confidence intervals bound the type I error rate. Combining exact one-sample Poisson confidence procedures recreates standard confidence intervals on the ratio, and introduces new ones for the difference. Combining confidence procedures associated with one-sample t-tests recreates the Behrens-Fisher intervals. Other applications provide new confidence intervals with fewer assumptions than previously needed. For example, the method creates new confidence intervals on the difference in medians that do not require shift and continuity assumptions. We create a new confidence interval for the difference between two survival distributions at a fixed time point when there is independent censoring by combining the recently developed beta product confidence procedure for each single sample. The resulting interval is designed to guarantee coverage regardless of sample size or censoring distribution, and produces equivalent inferences to Fisher’s exact test when there is no censoring. We show theoretically that when combining intervals asymptotically equivalent to normal intervals, our method has asymptotically accurate coverage. Importantly, all situations studied suggest guaranteed nominal coverage for our new interval whenever the original confidence procedures themselves guarantee coverage. PMID:25274182

  14. Supporting the Distant Student: The Effect of ARCS-Based Strategies on Confidence and Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huett, Jason Bond; Young, Jon; Huett, Kimberly Cleaves; Moller, Leslie; Bray, Marty

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to manipulate the component of confidence found in Keller's ARCS Model to enhance the confidence and performance of undergraduate students enrolled in an online course at a Texas University. This experiment used SAM Office 2003 and WebCT for the delivery of the tactics, strategies, confidence-enhancing e-mails…

  15. Enhancing School Connectedness: Teachers' Perceived Confidence in Positively Connecting Students to School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vidourek, Rebecca A.; King, Keith A.

    2014-01-01

    The present study examined teachers' perceived confidence in using strategies to positively connect students to school. A total of 419 teachers in Ohio elementary and middle schools were surveyed (60% response rate). Results indicated that teachers felt slightly confident to confident in their abilities to positively connect students to school.…

  16. User's Handbook for Confidence Testing as a Diagnostic Aid in Technical Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Echternacht, Gary J.; And Others

    This handbook presents instructions for implementing a confidence testing program in technical training situations, identification of possible areas of application, techniques for evaluating confidence information, advantages and disadvantages of confidence testing, time considerations, and problem areas. Complete instructions for "Pick-One" and…

  17. Public Confidence in Public Education: A Growing Concern in the 80's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    This literature review and analysis of the problem of building community confidence focuses on the work of the Phi Delta Kappa (PDK) Commission on Developing Public Confidence in Schools. Approaches to confidence building are categorized as: communications, concentrating on expanding communications one-way between school and the home; public…

  18. Confidence analysis of standard deviational ellipse and its extension into higher dimensional euclidean space.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bin; Shi, Wenzhong; Miao, Zelang

    2015-01-01

    Standard deviational ellipse (SDE) has long served as a versatile GIS tool for delineating the geographic distribution of concerned features. This paper firstly summarizes two existing models of calculating SDE, and then proposes a novel approach to constructing the same SDE based on spectral decomposition of the sample covariance, by which the SDE concept is naturally generalized into higher dimensional Euclidean space, named standard deviational hyper-ellipsoid (SDHE). Then, rigorous recursion formulas are derived for calculating the confidence levels of scaled SDHE with arbitrary magnification ratios in any dimensional space. Besides, an inexact-newton method based iterative algorithm is also proposed for solving the corresponding magnification ratio of a scaled SDHE when the confidence probability and space dimensionality are pre-specified. These results provide an efficient manner to supersede the traditional table lookup of tabulated chi-square distribution. Finally, synthetic data is employed to generate the 1-3 multiple SDEs and SDHEs. And exploratory analysis by means of SDEs and SDHEs are also conducted for measuring the spread concentrations of Hong Kong's H1N1 in 2009. PMID:25769048

  19. Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina

    2012-01-01

    In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.33.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history.This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

  20. Confidence and psychosis: a neuro-computational account of contingency learning disruption by NMDA blockade.

    PubMed

    Vinckier, F; Gaillard, R; Palminteri, S; Rigoux, L; Salvador, A; Fornito, A; Adapa, R; Krebs, M O; Pessiglione, M; Fletcher, P C

    2016-07-01

    A state of pathological uncertainty about environmental regularities might represent a key step in the pathway to psychotic illness. Early psychosis can be investigated in healthy volunteers under ketamine, an NMDA receptor antagonist. Here, we explored the effects of ketamine on contingency learning using a placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover design. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants performed an instrumental learning task, in which cue-outcome contingencies were probabilistic and reversed between blocks. Bayesian model comparison indicated that in such an unstable environment, reinforcement learning parameters are downregulated depending on confidence level, an adaptive mechanism that was specifically disrupted by ketamine administration. Drug effects were underpinned by altered neural activity in a fronto-parietal network, which reflected the confidence-based shift to exploitation of learned contingencies. Our findings suggest that an early characteristic of psychosis lies in a persistent doubt that undermines the stabilization of behavioral policy resulting in a failure to exploit regularities in the environment. PMID:26055423

  1. Maximum likelihood algorithm using an efficient scheme for computing sensitivities and parameter confidence intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, P. C.; Klein, V.

    1984-01-01

    Improved techniques for estimating airplane stability and control derivatives and their standard errors are presented. A maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is developed which relies on an optimization scheme referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson scheme with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort compared to integrating the analytically-determined sensitivity equations or using a finite difference scheme. An aircraft estimation problem is solved using real flight data to compare MNRES with the commonly used modified Newton-Raphson technique; MNRES is found to be faster and more generally applicable. Parameter standard errors are determined using a random search technique. The confidence intervals obtained are compared with Cramer-Rao lower bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the nonlinearity of the cost function is an important factor in the relationship between Cramer-Rao bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique.

  2. Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina R.

    2012-01-01

    In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

  3. Improved LC-MS/MS Spectral Counting Statistics by Recovering Low Scoring Spectra Matched to Confidently Identified Peptide Sequences

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Jianying; Schepmoes, Athena A.; Zhang, Xu; Moore, Ronald J.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Lee, Jung Hwa; Camp, David G.; Smith, Richard D.; Qian, Weijun

    2010-09-02

    Spectral counting has become a popular semi-quantitative method for LC-MS/MS based proteome quantification; however, this methodology is often not reliable when proteins are identified by a small number of spectra. Here we present a simple strategy to improve spectral counting based quantification for low abundance proteins by recovering low quality or low scoring spectra for confidently identified peptides. In this approach, stringent data filtering criteria were initially applied to achieve confident peptide identifications with low false discovery rate (e.g., <1%) after LC-MS/MS analysis and database search by SEQUEST. Then, all low scoring MS/MS spectra that match to this set of confidently identified peptides were recovered, leading to more than 20% increase of total identified spectra. The validity of these recovered spectra was assessed by the parent ion mass measurement error distribution, retention time distribution, and by comparing the individual low score and high score spectra that correspond to the same peptides. The results support that the recovered low scoring spectra have similar confidence levels in peptide identifications as the spectra passing the initial stringent filter. The application of this strategy of recovering low scoring spectra significantly improved the spectral count quantification statistics for low abundance proteins, as illustrated in the identification of mouse brain region specific proteins.

  4. Ambulatory assessment of skin conductivity during first thesis presentation: lower self-confidence predicts prolonged stress response.

    PubMed

    Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone

    2011-06-01

    In this field study self-confidence was tested to predict the course of galvanic electrodermal stress response prior, during and after public speaking. Ten graduate students initially rated their self-confidence and afterwards presented their thesis proposals orally in a 10-min presentation to their supervisor and peers. Galvanic skin response level was measured throughout and analysed for 10 min prior to, during, and 10 min after the presentation. Two major galvanic electrodermal stress response types were observed. Five students showed a 'healthy response', i.e. an anticipatory increase in electrodermal conductance, followed by a decrease after termination of the presentation. The other five students showed a steady increase of skin conductance during and after their presentation ('prolonged response'). In line with the allostatic load model the 'prolonged response' group reported significantly lower self-confidence before presentation than the 'healthy response' group (p < 0.01). Self-confidence is a resource in novices facing an unfamiliar stressor. PMID:21533677

  5. Declines in trust in others and confidence in institutions among American adults and late adolescents, 1972-2012.

    PubMed

    Twenge, Jean M; Campbell, W Keith; Carter, Nathan T

    2014-10-01

    Between 1972 and 2012, Americans became significantly less trusting of each other and less confident in large institutions, such as the news media, business, religious organizations, the medical establishment, Congress, and the presidency. Levels of trust and confidence, key indicators of social capital, reached all-time or near-all-time lows in 2012 in the nationally representative General Social Survey of adults (1972-2012; N = 37,493) and the nationally representative Monitoring the Future survey of 12th graders (1976-2012; N = 101,633). Hierarchical modeling analyses separating the effects of time period, generation, and age show that this decline in social capital is primarily a time-period effect. Confidence in institutions is also influenced by generation, with Baby Boomers lowest. Trust was lowest when income inequality was high, and confidence in institutions was lowest when poverty rates were high. The prediction of a sustained revival in social capital after 2001 seems to have been premature. PMID:25205784

  6. Verification& Validation (V&V) Guidelines and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC): Basis for an Investment Strategy

    SciTech Connect

    Logan, R W; Nitta, C K

    2002-07-17

    This paper represents an attempt to summarize our thoughts regarding various methods and potential guidelines for Verification and Validation (V&V) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) that we have observed within the broader V&V community or generated ourselves. Our goals are to evaluate these various methods, to apply them to computational simulation analyses, and integrate them into methods for Quantitative Certification techniques for the nuclear stockpile. We describe the critical nature of high quality analyses with quantified V&V, and the essential role of V&V and UQ at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after V&V has contributed to UQ at confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. UQ of performance and safety margins for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence (QRC) and we summarize with a brief description of how these V&V generated QRC quantities fold into a Value-Engineering methodology for evaluating investment strategies. V&V contributes directly to the decision process for investment, through quantification of uncertainties at confidence for margin and reliability assessments. These contributions play an even greater role in a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) environment than ever before, when reliance on simulation in the absence of the ability to perform nuclear testing is critical.

  7. Judgments of learning index relative confidence, not subjective probability.

    PubMed

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A

    2015-11-01

    The underconfidence-with-practice (UWP) effect is a common finding in calibration studies concerned with judgments of learning (JOLs) elicited on a percentage scale. The UWP pattern is present when, in a procedure consisting of multiple study-test cycles, the mean scale JOLs underestimate the mean recall performance on Cycle 2 and beyond. Although this pattern is present both for items recalled and unrecalled on the preceding cycle, to date research has concentrated mostly on the sources of UWP for the latter type of items. In the present study, we aimed to bridge this gap. In three experiments, we examined calibration on the third of three cycles. The results of Experiment 1 demonstrated the typical pattern of higher recall and scale JOLs for previously recalled items than for unrecalled ones. More importantly, they also revealed that even though the UWP effect was found for items previously recalled both once and twice, its magnitude was greater for the former class of items. Experiments 2 and 3, which employed a binary betting task and a binary 0 %/100 % JOL task, respectively, demonstrated that people can accurately predict future recall for previously recalled items with binary decisions. In both experiments, the UWP effect was absent for both items recalled once and twice. We suggest that the sensitivity of scale JOLs, but not binary judgments, to the number of previous recall successes strengthens the claim of Hanczakowski, Zawadzka, Pasek, and Higham (Journal of Memory and Language 69:429-444, 2013) that scale JOLs reflect confidence in, rather than the subjective probability of, future recall. PMID:26111879

  8. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1988-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z = (z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y(0)=(y sub 1(0),...,y sub D(0)) knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y(0). The data space Y containing y(0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x (e.g., energy or dissipation rate), Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. CSI is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface. Neither the heat flow nor the energy bound is strong enough to permit estimation of B(r) at single points on the CMB, but the heat flow bound permits estimation of uniform averages of B(r) over discs on the CMB, and both bounds permit weighted disc-averages with continous weighting kernels. Both bounds also permit estimation of low-degree Gauss coefficients at the CMB. The heat flow bound resolves them up to degree 8 if the crustal field at satellite altitudes must be treated as a systematic error, but can resolve to degree 11 under the most favorable statistical treatment of the crust. These two limits produce circles of confusion on the CMB with diameters of 25 deg and 19 deg respectively.

  9. Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador

    2014-05-01

    In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. PMID:24650632

  10. Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E.; Lau, Jennifer Y.F.; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D.; Bahrami, Bahador

    2014-01-01

    In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the ‘confidence heuristic’. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. PMID:24650632

  11. "It's magic!" The effects of presentation modality on children's event memory, suggestibility, and confidence judgments.

    PubMed

    Roebers, Claudia M; Gelhaar, Tim; Schneider, Wolfgang

    2004-04-01

    The current study investigated the influence of presentation modality (live, video, and slide show) on children's memory, suggestibility, recognition, and metamemorial monitoring processes. A total of 270 children in three age groups (5- and 6-year-olds, 7- and 8-year-olds, and 9- and 10-year-olds) watched a magic show and were questioned about it 1 week later. The live show yielded more correct answers to nonleading questions, higher resistance to misleading questions, and better recognition memory than did the video condition, which in turn resulted in better performance than did the slide show. Although presentation modality raised the general level of memory performance, the effects were equally strong in all age groups and did not affect memory phenomena such as the size of the misinformation effect and confidence judgments. PMID:15050457

  12. Military confidence building on the Korean Peninsula: possible first steps toward cooperation

    SciTech Connect

    Vannoni, M.

    1997-05-01

    The Korean Peninsula is one of the world`s most tense military confrontational sites. Nearly 2 million North Korean, South Korean, and U.S. troops face each other along the 255-km long military demarcation line. Confidence building measures (CBMs), particularly military ones, that address the security needs of both countries could decrease the danger of conflict and help create an environment where a peace regime might be negotiated. In spite of the present high level of mutual distrust, steps can still be taken to prepare for future development and implementation of CBMs. This paper defines some simple and specific first steps toward CBMs that might be useful on the Korean Peninsula.

  13. The necessity of and strategies for improving confidence in the accuracy of western blots

    PubMed Central

    Ghosh, Rajeshwary; Gilda, Jennifer E.; Gomes, Aldrin V.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Western blotting is one of the most commonly used laboratory techniques for identifying proteins and semi-quantifying protein amounts, however, several recent findings suggest that western blots may not be as reliable as previously assumed. This is not surprising since many labs are unaware of the limitations of western blotting. In this manuscript we review essential strategies for improving confidence in the accuracy of western blots. These strategies include selecting the best normalization standard, proper sample preparation, determining the linear range for antibodies and protein stains relevant to the sample of interest, confirming the quality of the primary antibody, preventing signal saturation and accurately quantifying the signal intensity of the target protein. Although western blotting is a powerful and indispensable scientific technique that can be used to accurately quantify relative protein levels, it is necessary that proper experimental techniques and strategies are employed. PMID:25059473

  14. Statistical damage detection method for frame structures using a confidence interval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Weiming; Zhu, Hongping; Luo, Hanbin; Xia, Yong

    2010-03-01

    A novel damage detection method is applied to a 3-story frame structure, to obtain statistical quantification control criterion of the existence, location and identification of damage. The mean, standard deviation, and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) are applied to detect damage information according to statistical process control (SPC) theory. It is concluded that the detection is insignificant with the mean and EWMA because the structural response is not independent and is not a normal distribution. On the other hand, the damage information is detected well with the standard deviation because the influence of the data distribution is not pronounced with this parameter. A suitable moderate confidence level is explored for more significant damage location and quantification detection, and the impact of noise is investigated to illustrate the robustness of the method.

  15. The necessity of and strategies for improving confidence in the accuracy of western blots.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, Rajeshwary; Gilda, Jennifer E; Gomes, Aldrin V

    2014-10-01

    Western blotting is one of the most commonly used laboratory techniques for identifying proteins and semi-quantifying protein amounts; however, several recent findings suggest that western blots may not be as reliable as previously assumed. This is not surprising since many labs are unaware of the limitations of western blotting. In this manuscript, we review essential strategies for improving confidence in the accuracy of western blots. These strategies include selecting the best normalization standard, proper sample preparation, determining the linear range for antibodies and protein stains relevant to the sample of interest, confirming the quality of the primary antibody, preventing signal saturation and accurately quantifying the signal intensity of the target protein. Although western blotting is a powerful and indispensable scientific technique that can be used to accurately quantify relative protein levels, it is necessary that proper experimental techniques and strategies are employed. PMID:25059473

  16. Confidence building measures at sea:opportunities for India and Pakistan.

    SciTech Connect

    Vohra, Ravi Bhushan Rear Admiral; Ansari, Hasan Masood Rear Admiral

    2003-12-01

    The sea presents unique possibilities for implementing confidence building measures (CBMs) between India and Pakistan that are currently not available along the contentious land borders surrounding Jammu and Kashmir. This is due to the nature of maritime issues, the common military culture of naval forces, and a less contentious history of maritime interaction between the two nations. Maritime issues of mutual concern provide a strong foundation for more far-reaching future CBMs on land, while addressing pressing security, economic, and humanitarian needs at sea in the near-term. Although Indian and Pakistani maritime forces currently have stronger opportunities to cooperate with one another than their counterparts on land, reliable mechanisms to alleviate tension or promote operational coordination remain non-existent. Therefore, possible maritime CBMs, as well as pragmatic mechanisms to initiate and sustain cooperation, require serious examination. This report reflects the unique joint research undertaking of two retired Senior Naval Officers from both India and Pakistan, sponsored by the Cooperative Monitoring Center of the International Security Center at Sandia National Laboratories. Research focuses on technology as a valuable tool to facilitate confidence building between states having a low level of initial trust. Technical CBMs not only increase transparency, but also provide standardized, scientific means of interacting on politically difficult problems. Admirals Vohra and Ansari introduce technology as a mechanism to facilitate consistent forms of cooperation and initiate discussion in the maritime realm. They present technical CBMs capable of being acted upon as well as high-level political recommendations regarding the following issues: (1) Delimitation of the maritime boundary between India and Pakistan and its relationship to the Sir Creek dispute; (2) Restoration of full shipping links and the security of ports and cargos; (3) Fishing within

  17. On the Use of Experimental Methods to Improve Confidence in Educed Impedance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, Michael G.; Watson, Willie R.

    2011-01-01

    Results from impedance eduction methods developed by NASA Langley Research Center are used throughout the acoustic liner community. In spite of recent enhancements, occasional anomalies persist with these methods, generally at frequencies where the liner produces minimal attenuation. This investigation demonstrates an experimental approach to educe impedance with increased confidence over a desired frequency range, by combining results from successive tests with different cavity depths. A series of tests is conducted with three wire-mesh facesheets, for which the results should be weakly dependent on source sound pressure level and mean grazing flow speed. First, a raylometer is used to measure the DC flow resistance of each facesheet. These facesheets are then mounted onto a frame and a normal incidence tube is used to determine their respective acoustic impedance spectra. A comparison of the acoustic resistance component with the DC flow resistance for each facesheet is used to validate the measurement process. Next, each facesheet is successively mounted onto three frames with different cavity depths, and a grazing flow impedance tube is used to educe their respective acoustic impedance spectra with and without mean flow. The no-flow results are compared with those measured in the normal incidence tube to validate the impedance eduction method. Since the anti-resonance frequency varies with cavity depth, each sample provides robust results over a different frequency range. Hence, a combination of results can be used to determine the facesheet acoustic resistance. When combined with the acoustic reactance, observed to be weakly dependent on the source sound pressure level and grazing flow Mach number, the acoustic impedance can be educed with increased confidence. Representative results of these tests are discussed, and the complete database is available in electronic format upon request.

  18. The effects of social support and confidence in the health care system on the likelihood of hiring a health advocate

    PubMed Central

    Cronan, Terry A; Carlson, Jordan A; Imberi, Jenny; Villodas, Miguel; Vasserman-Stokes, Elaina; Dowell, Ana

    2010-01-01

    Background In response to the increasing complexity of the health care system, the field of health advocacy has emerged. However, little is known about factors that may influence a person’s likelihood of hiring a health advocate. Purpose This study was designed to examine factors that influence a person’s likelihood of hiring a health advocate. Methods The participants were 889 randomly selected community members who were assigned to read one of six vignettes. Social support and confidence in the health care system were manipulated in the vignettes. Social support was either high or low and overall confidence was high, moderate, or low. The dependent variables were participants’ likelihood of hiring a health advocate and the hourly rate participants were willing to pay for a health advocate for six different services. Results The results indicated that social support did not affect the likelihood of hiring a health advocate; however, confidence in the health care system did affect the likelihood of hiring a health advocate. Participants who read vignettes, in which the patient was described as having lower overall confidence levels, indicated a greater likelihood of hiring a health advocate than participants who read the vignettes in which the patient was described as having high confidence. Conclusions More research is needed to determine other factors that may influence the likelihood of hiring a health advocate and whether hiring a health advocate is a cost-effective way to improve the quality of health care by reducing the number of medical mistakes and improving patient-provider communication. PMID:22110328

  19. Knowledge and confidence of South African health care providers regarding post-rape care: a cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In South Africa, providers are trained on post-rape care by a multitude of organisations, resulting in varied knowledge and skills. In 2007, a national training curriculum was developed and piloted in the country. The objectives of this paper are to identify the factors associated with higher knowledge and confidence in providers at the commencement of the training and to reflect on the implications of this for training and other efforts being made to improve services. Methods A cross-sectional study using questionnaires was conducted. Providers who attended the training provided information on socio-demographic background, service provision, training, attitudes, and confidence. Knowledge was measured through multiple choice questions. Bi-variable analysis was carried out in order to test for factors associated with high knowledge and confidence. Variables with a p value of <0.20 were then included in backward selection to develop the final multivariable models. Results Of the 124 providers, 70% were female and 68% were nurses. The mean age of the providers was 41.7 (24 – 64) years. About 60% of providers were trained in providing post-rape care. The median percentage knowledge score was 37.3% (0% - 65.3%) and the median percentage confidence score was 75.4% (10% - 100%). Having a more appropriate attitude towards rape was associated with higher knowledge, while older providers and nurses had lower odds of having high knowledge levels. Working in a crisis centre in the facility, having examined a survivor in the last 3 months, and seeing more than 60% of survivors who came to the facility were associated with higher confidence. Higher confidence was not associated with greater knowledge. Conclusion The study indicated that although confidence was high, there was poor knowledge in providers, even in those who were previously trained. Knowledge seems to be critically dependant on attitude, which highlights the need for educating providers on rape and

  20. Challenges of Sustaining the International Space Station Through 2020 and Beyond: Reassessing Confidence Targets for System Availability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lutomski, Michael G.; Carter-Journet, Katrina; Anderson, Leif; Box, Neil; Harrington, Sean; Jackson, David; DiFilippo, Denise

    2012-01-01

    modeled functions and actual subsystem operations. Perhaps most importantly, it is acknowledged that conservative confidence targets per subsystem are currently accepted. This presentation will also discuss how subsystem confidence targets may be relaxed based on calculating the level of uncertainty for each corresponding ORU-function. The presentation will conclude with the various strengths and limitations for implementing the analytical approach in sustaining the ISS through end of life; 2020 and beyond.