Science.gov

Sample records for a1b emissions scenario

  1. A1B scenario simulations of future natural snow conditions in Tyrol and Styria (Austrian Alps)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strasser, U.; Marke, T.; Hanzer, F.; Ragg, H.; Kleindienst, H.; Wilcke, R.; Gobiet, A.

    2012-04-01

    We use four different realizations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario based climate simulations provided by the ENSEMBLES project for the study regions Tyrol and Styria. They represent average as well as above average cold/warm and wet/dry conditions in the winter half year (November to April). The scenario and control run simulations were downscaled and error corrected to station locations with a quantile based empirical-statistical method on a daily time basis. To provide 3-hourly meteorological snow model input data, diurnal variations have been extracted from uncorrected RCM simulations to disaggregate the downscaled and bias corrected daily data. The resulting time series of meteorological parameters are spatially interpolated on the basis of existing parameter-elevation relations, and by means of a kriging technique. The control simulations (1971-2000) and scenario simulations (2021-2050) are applied as meteorological forcing for two snow models: The process based snow model AMUNDSEN includes physical descriptions of all snow relevant surface processes, is therefore transferable in space and time, and provides results at high spatial resolution (50 m). Due to its computational demands its application is limited to the two test regions Kitzbuehel (Tyrol) and Schladming (Styria). To establish a regional snow simulation, the conceptual model SNOWREG is used. The temperature-index-approach requires only few input variables, is efficient in terms of computational costs and allows a large-scale application for the provinces of Tyrol and Styria at a spatial resolution of 250 m. SNOWREG is trained by means of assimilating natural snow cover patterns provided by remotely sensed snow coverage and station recordings. Indicators for skiing conditions are used to quantify and compare changes in future natural snow conditions. The moderate increase in average area mean winter temperature (up to 2,6 °C in Tyrol and 2.3 °C in Styria) and changes in area mean winter

  2. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

    2012-04-01

    We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

  3. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  4. Seasonal changes in the regional hydrological cycle and resulting potential vegetation changes in an aggressive mitigation scenario compared to SRES A1B

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huebener, H.; Höschel, I.; Körber, J.; Sanderson, M.; Johns, T. C.; Royer, J.-F.; Melia, D. Salas Y.; Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.; Manzini, E.

    2010-09-01

    An aggressive mitigation scenario named E1 was developed in the EU FP6 Project ENSEMBLES, starting from current concentration levels (scenario path of SRES A1B) and leading to an eventual stabilization of CO2-eq. concentrations at 450 ppm beyond 2100. A set of 10 GCM and ESM was used to simulate climate change until 2100 under the E1 scenario, compared to the baseline A1B scenario. Previous analysis has shown that the ensemble mean warming stays below the 2K-target. In this presentation, focus will be on monthly and seasonal analyses of changes in the hydrological cycle and resulting potential vegetation changes, represented by biomes. For selected regions (from the 26 Giorgy-Regions) the annual cycles of precipitation, cloudiness and evapotranspiration and related biome changes will be shown. The results will be compared between the two scenarios and particularly vulnerable regions will be identified. Results will be discussed with special focus on the avoided climate change under the E1 scenario as compared to the A1B scenario. This allows assessing both, profits of keeping the 2K-target and changes that are unavoidable even under the aggressive mitigation path necessary to keep the 2K-target. Biome changes for both scenarios reflect shifts to a warmer climate but are more pronounced in the A1B scenario compared to the E1 scenario. For example, in North-Eastern Europe, an expansion of Temperate Mixed Forest and Cool Mixed forests is simulated replacing Cool Conifer Forests and Taiga. Further south, in the Mediterranean Basin temperate Mixed Forests are replaced by Xerophytic Woodland, Warm Grassland and Warm Mixed Forest.

  5. Evaluation of surface water budget and assessment the global water cycle for the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baek, H.; Park, E.; Kwon, W.

    2009-12-01

    Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies, because humans require water for their survival. Especially, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. The goal of this study is to assess the closure and annual variations of the water cycles based on the multi-model ensemble approach. In this study, the projection results of the previous works focusing on global and six sub-regions are updated using sixteen atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Before projecting future climate, model performances are evaluated on the simulation of the present-day climate. From the result, we construct and use mainly multi-model ensembles (MMEs), which is referred to as MME9, defined from nine selected AOGCMs of higher performance. Analyzed variables include annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. The overall projection results from MME9 show that most regions will experience warmer and wetter climate at the end of 21st century. The evaporation shows a very similar trend to precipitation, but not in the runoff projection. The internal and inter-model variabilities are larger in the runoff than both precipitation and evaporation. Moreover, the runoff is notably reduced in Europe at the end of 21st century.

  6. Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

    2007-03-26

    We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

  7. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7. PMID:20225840

  8. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  9. The impact of climate change on summer maize phenology in the northwest plain of Shandong province under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, P.; Liu, Y.

    2014-03-01

    Climate change will affect agricultural production. Combining a climate model and a crop growth model furnishes a good approach for analyzing this effect quantitatively. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of climate change on summer maize phenology in northwest Shandong province under the A1B climate scenario using a regional climate model and the CERES-Maize growth model. The results showed that the temperature would increase significantly during the maize growth season in the study region, that the increased temperature would shorten the maize growth stage and result in a potential yield loss using the current cultivar, and that it is critical to breed a heat-resistant and late-maturing cultivar to maintain the yield.

  10. Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

    2016-04-01

    In order to design adaptive strategies to global change we need to assess the future impact of climate change on water resources, which depends on precipitation and temperature series in the systems. The objective of this work is to generate future climate series in the "Alto Genil" Basin (southeast Spain) for the period 2071-2100 by perturbing the historical series using different statistical methods. For this targeted we use information coming from regionals climate model simulations (RCMs) available in two European projects, CORDEX (2013), with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, and ENSEMBLES (2009), with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The historical climate series used for the period 1971-2000 have been obtained from Spain02 project (2012) which has the same spatial resolution that CORDEX project (both use the EURO-CORDEX grid). Two emission scenarios have been considered: the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the A1B emission scenario of fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We use the RCM simulations to create an ensemble of predictions weighting their information according to their ability to reproduce the main statistic of the historical climatology. A multi-objective analysis has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to the cited statistic of the historical series. The ensemble of the CORDEX and the ENSEMBLES projects has been finally created with nine and four models respectively. These ensemble series have been used to assess the anomalies in mean and standard deviation (differences between the control and future RCM series). A "delta-change" method (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2011) has been applied to define future series by modifying the historical climate series in accordance with the cited anomalies in mean and standard deviation. A

  11. Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodnebrog, Ø.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Koffi, B.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Stordal, F.; Szopa, S.; Tang, Q.; van Velthoven, P.; Williams, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B), and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE), presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000). Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario. As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000. Radiative forcing (RF) calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a marginal cooling of -0.44 ± 13 mW m-2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of -32 ± 9.3 (B1) or -32 ± 18 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from -19 ± 5.3 mW m-2 in 2000 to -31 ± 4.8 (B1) or -40 ± 9 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, and from reduced O3 warming from ROAD, which is likely to turn from a positive net RF of 12 ± 8.5 mW m-2 in 2000 to a

  12. Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodnebrog, Ø.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Koffi, B.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Stordal, F.; Szopa, S.; Tang, Q.; van Velthoven, P.; Williams, J. E.

    2012-08-01

    The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B), and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE), presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000). Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario. As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000. Radiative Forcing (RF) calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a~marginal cooling of -0.38 ± 13 mW m-2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of -32 ± 8.9 (B1) or -31 ± 20 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from -20 ± 5.4 mW m-2 in 2000 to -31 ± 4.8 (B1) or -40 ± 11 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, and from reduced O3 warming from ROAD, which is likely to turn from a positive net RF of 13 ± 7.9 mW m-2 in 2000 to

  13. Spatial patterns of European droughts under a moderate emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spinoni, J.; Naumann, G.; Vogt, J.

    2015-07-01

    Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981-2010, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25° × 0.25°. By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041-2070) and even more in the far future (2071-2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.

  14. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  15. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  16. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  17. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  18. Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page

    2011-09-08

    Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.

  19. NASA HSRP Emissions Scenarios Committee meeting, June 7, 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Seals, R.M.

    1993-08-12

    This primary purpose of this plan is to establish a process to ensure data integrity in the process of assembling aircraft emission scenario data sets from component data developed and provided by various sources. A component data set is one for a particular aircraft use (i.e. scheduled airline). A scenario data set is an ensemble set for a particular time. A secondary purpose is to help identify possible discrepancies or inconsistencies in the component data sets developed elsewhere or in the scenario data sets. This plan covers activities involved in assembling aircraft emission scenario data sets and by the component data set producers in supplying information to support evaluation of the component data sets. It does not cover work by the data producers to validate their work in developing the component data sets or to establish the fundamental soundness of the component data sets.

  20. Year 2015 Aircraft Emission Scenario for Scheduled Air Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Sutkus, Donald J.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional scenario of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons)for projected year 2015 scheduled air traffic. These emission inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxides, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  1. Scenario Dependence of the Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krasting, J. P.; Dunne, J. P.; Shevliakova, E.; Stouffer, R. J.

    2013-12-01

    The ability to relate future warming to past cumulative carbon emissions independent of the emissions pathway is desirable from both scientific understanding and climate policy perspectives. The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) has been used to argue for a lack of committed future warming based on past carbon emissions. Additional studies have also demonstrated that the cessation of carbon emissions results in either a stabilization or a decrease in global mean surface air temperature. Experiments that demonstrate these principles have been based primarily on scenarios where atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase exponentially - thus obscuring the uncertainties in the differing climate and carbon cycle response to varying pathways of carbon emissions. In an alternative approach, we explore the robustness of these findings by forcing a coupled climate-carbon-cycle Earth System Model (ESM) with differing linear rates of carbon emissions (5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 PgC/yr). We quantify the scenario dependence of heat and carbon partitioning in the coupled Earth system. At the time of CO2 doubling, we find that the difference in TCRE across the 5 emissions rates from a single ESM (NOAA GFDL-ESM2G) represents approximately 1/3 of the range of TCRE from the suite of C4MIP models and 1/5 of the range from the CMIP5 models. After imposing zero emissions at the time of CO2 doubling in the 5 and 25 PgC/yr experiments, we found even greater uncertainty in TCRE after 200 years. TCRE, while useful for benchmarking models, is less robust on policy-making timescales. In the case of zero emissions, the climate-carbon-cycle system, as represented by GFDL-ESM2G, responds differently based on past rates and timescales of carbon emissions.

  2. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  3. Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

    2013-11-01

    This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

  4. Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holloway, T.

    2010-12-01

    Though much work has been done to develop accurate chemical emission inventories, few publicly available inventories are appropriate for realistic policy analysis. Emissions from the electricity and transportation sectors, in particular, respond in complex ways to policy, technology, and energy use change. Many widely used inventories, such as the EPA National Emissions Inventory, are well-suited for modeling current air quality, but do not have the specificity needed to address "what if?" questions. Changes in electricity demand, fuel prices, new power sources, and emission controls all influence the emissions from regional power production, requiring a plant-by-plant assessment to capture the spatially explicit impacts. Similarly, land use, freight distribution, or driving behavior will yield differentiated transportation emissions for urban areas, suburbs, and rural highways. We here present results from three recent research projects at the University of Wisconsin—Madison, where bottom-up emission inventories for electricity, freight transport, and urban vehicle use were constructed to support policy-relevant air quality research. These three studies include: 1) Using the MyPower electricity dispatch model to calculate emissions and air quality impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards and other carbon-management strategies; 2) Using advanced vehicle and commodity flow data from the Federal Highway Administration to evaluate the potential to shift commodities from truck to rail (assuming expanded infrastructure), and assess a range of alternative fuel suggestions; and 3) Working with urban planners to connect urban density with vehicle use to evaluate the air quality impacts of smart-growth in major Midwest cities. Drawing on the results of these three studies, and on challenges overcome in their execution, we discuss the current state of policy-relevant emission dataset generation, as well as techniques and attributes that need to be further refined in order

  5. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  6. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  7. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  8. Emissions from residential combustion considering end-uses and spatial constraints: Part II, emission reduction scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.

    2016-01-01

    Cooking, heating, and other activities in the residential sector are major sources of indoor and outdoor air pollution, especially when solid fuels are used to provide energy. Because of their deleterious effects on the atmosphere and human health, multinational strategies to reduce emissions have been proposed. This study examines the effects of some possible policies, considering realistic factors that constrain mitigation: end-uses, spatial constraints involving proximity to forest or electricity, existing technology, and assumptions about user behavior. Reduction scenarios are applied to a year-2010, spatially distributed baseline of emissions of particulate matter, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen oxides, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Scenarios explored are: (1) cleanest current stove, where we assume that existing technology in each land type is applied to burn existing fuels; (2) stove standards, where we assume that stoves are designed to meet performance standards; and (3) clean fuels, where users adopt the cleanest fuels plausible in each land type. We assume that people living in forest access areas continue to use wood regardless of available fuels, so the clean-fuels scenario leads to a reduction in emissions of 18-25%, depending on the pollutant, across the study region. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used; emission reductions range from 25 to 82%, depending on the pollutant. If stove performance standards can be met, particulate matter emissions are reduced by 62% for the loosest standards and 95% for the tightest standards, and carbon monoxide is reduced by 40% and 62% for the loosest and tightest standards. Reductions in specific regions and countries depend on the existing fuel mixture and the population division among land types, and are explored for Latin America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

  9. [Regional simulation of rice yield change under two emission scenarios of greenhouse gases].

    PubMed

    Xiong, Wei; Xu, Yinlong; Lin, Erda; Lu, Zhiguang

    2005-01-01

    Based on the newest emission scenarios of SO2 and greenhouse gases, i. e., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, and by using RCM (Regional Climate Model)-PRECIS and CERES-Rice model, this paper simulated the rice yield change in 2080 at 50 x 50 km scale. The results showed that there was a great range of yield change across whole China. The yield would increase along the Changjiang River and in South China, and decrease in North and Northeast China. Because of the direct effect of CO2 on rice growth, the SRES A2 scenario would be more positive to the increase of rice yield than B2. In 2080, the total rice yield in whole China would increase under A2 emission scenario, while decrease under B2 emission scenario.

  10. Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

    1994-01-01

    Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

  11. Scenario analysis to vehicular emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China.

    PubMed

    Guo, Xiurui; Fu, Liwei; Ji, Muse; Lang, Jianlei; Chen, Dongsheng; Cheng, Shuiyuan

    2016-09-01

    Motor vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the important factors affecting the urban air quality in China. It is necessary and useful to policy makers to demonstrate the situation given the relevant pollutants reduction measures are taken. This paper predicted the reduction potentials of conventional pollutants (PM10, NOx, CO, HC) under different control strategies and policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 2011-2020. There are the baseline and 5 control scenarios designed, which presented the different current and future possible vehicular emissions control measures. Future population of different kinds of vehicles were predicted based on the Gompertz model, and vehicle kilometers travelled estimated as well. After that, the emissions reduction under the different scenarios during 2011-2020 could be estimated using emission factors and activity level data. The results showed that, the vehicle population in the BTH region would continue to grow up, especially in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing the different scenarios, emission standards updating scenario would achieve a substantial reduction and keep rising up for all the pollutants, and the scenario of eliminating high-emission vehicles can reduce emissions more effectively in short-term than in long-term, especially in Beijing. Due to the constraints of existing economical and technical level, the reduction effect of promoting new energy vehicles would not be significant, especially given the consideration of their lifetime impact. The reduction effect of population regulation scenario in Beijing cannot be ignorable and would keep going up for PM10, CO and HC, excluding NOx. Under the integrated scenario considering all the control measures it would achieve the maximum reduction potential of emissions, which means to reduce emissions of PM10, NOx, CO, HC, by 56%, 59%, 48%, 52%, respectively, compared to BAU scenario for the whole BTH region in 2020. PMID:27325548

  12. Emissions Scenarios, Costs, and Implementation Considerations of REDD Programs

    SciTech Connect

    Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Ken; Chan, Peter

    2011-04-11

    Greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector are estimated to be 8.4 GtCO2-eq./year or about 17percent of the global emissions. We estimate that the cost forreducing deforestation is low in Africa and several times higher in Latin America and Southeast Asia. These cost estimates are sensitive to the uncertainties of how muchunsustainable high-revenue logging occurs, little understood transaction and program implementation costs, and barriers to implementation including governance issues. Due to lack of capacity in the affected countries, achieving reduction or avoidance of carbon emissions will require extensive REDD-plus programs. Preliminary REDD-plus Readiness cost estimates and program descriptions for Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Guyana and Mexico show that roughly one-third of potential REDD-plus mitigation benefits might come from avoided deforestation and the rest from avoided forest degradation and other REDD-plus activities.

  13. Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

    2015-12-01

    Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

  14. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  15. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-06-01

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols -- specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate -- depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. A properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions -- while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation -- could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

  16. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  17. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shaojian

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions. PMID:26397373

  18. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

  19. Response of aerosol composition to different emission scenarios in Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yingjie; Sun, Yele; Du, Wei; Wang, Qingqing; Chen, Chen; Han, Tingting; Lin, Jian; Zhao, Jian; Xu, Weiqi; Gao, Jian; Li, Jie; Fu, Pingqing; Wang, Zifa; Han, Yongxiang

    2016-11-15

    Understanding the response of aerosol chemistry to different emission scenarios is of great importance for air pollution mitigating strategies in megacities. Here we investigate the variations in air pollutants under three different emission scenarios, i.e., heating season, spring festival holiday and non-heating season using aerosol composition and gaseous measurements from 2 February to 1 April 2015 along with source apportionment and FLEXPART analysis in Beijing. Our results showed substantially different aerosol composition among three emission scenarios that is primarily caused by different emission sources. All aerosol and gas species showed ubiquitously higher concentrations in heating season than non-heating season with the largest enhancement for fossil OA (FOA) and chloride. On average, the particulate matter (PM) level in winter heating season can be enhanced by 70% due to coal combustion emissions. In contrast, cooking aerosols and traffic related species showed significant reductions as a response of reduced anthropogenic activities during the spring festival holiday, sulfate and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) however even increased due to enhanced aqueous-phase production. Such compensating effects resulted in small changes in PM levels for haze episodes during the holiday period despite reduced anthropogenic emissions. Our results have significant implications that local emission controls during winter severe pollution episodes can reduce primary aerosols substantially, but the mitigating effects can be significantly suppressed by enhanced secondary formation under stagnant meteorological conditions. PMID:27425439

  20. Mapping of the CO2 and anthropogenic heat emission under spatially explicit urban land use scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamichi, K.; Yamagata, Y.; Seya, H.

    2010-12-01

    The serious further efforts on CO2 and other green house gases emission reduction by global climate change mitigation remain as an urgent global issue to be solved. From the viewpoint of urban land use measures, the realization of low-carbon city is the key to change people’s behavior to reduce CO2 emission. In this respect, a lot of studies aimed at realizing low-carbon city are progressing on a number of fronts, including city planning and transportation planning. With respect to the low-carbon city, compact city is expected to reduce CO2 emission from transportation sector. Hence many studies have been conducted with scenario analysis considering modal share change, for instance, increase of public transportation use and reduction of trip length by car. On the other hand, it is important that CO2 emission from not only transportation sector but also residential sector can be reduced by a move from a detached house to a condominium, the change of family composition types and so on. In regard to residential sector, it has been founded that CO2 emission units differ among family composition types, for example, the single-person household emit more CO2 in general. From the viewpoint of an urban climate prediction, the possible range of future land use change should be recognized as the input parameters for the climate models. In addition to CO2 emission, the anthropogenic heat emission is also important as an input data of climate models in order to evaluate the social and economic impacts of urban land use change. The objective of this study is to demonstrate a compact city scenario and a dispersion scenario in Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest metropolitan area in the world, and to examine future climate change mitigation policies including land use for realization of low-carbon city. We have created two scenarios of population distribution by using an urban economic model. In these scenarios we have assumed extreme cases in order to show the

  1. Scenario analysis for nutrient emission reduction in the European inland waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouraoui, F.; Thieu, V.; Grizzetti, B.; Britz, W.; Bidoglio, G.

    2014-12-01

    Despite a large body of legislation, high nutrient loads are still emitted in European inland waters. In the present study we evaluate a set of alternative scenarios aiming at reducing nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from anthropogenic activities to all European Seas. In particular, we tested the full implementation of the European Urban Waste Water Directive, which controls emissions from point source. In addition, we associated the full implementation of this Directive with a ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents. Then we tested two human diet scenarios and their impacts on nutrient emissions. We also developed a scenario based on an optimal use of organic manure. The impacts of all our scenarios were evaluated using a statistical model of nitrogen and phosphorus fate (GREEN) linked to an agro-economic model (CAPRI). We show that the ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents coupled with the full implementation of the Urban Waste Water Directive is the most effective approach for reducing phosphorus emissions from human based activities. Concerning nitrogen, the highest reductions are obtained with the optimized use of organic manure.

  2. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2016-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012-2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of-pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  3. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  4. ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

  5. Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.; Streets, David G.

    2009-04-01

    This study examines the effects of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, and the resulting feedback to natural emissions and air quality. Speciated sector- and region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed to produce gas and particle emission inventories that followed Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 emission trajectories. Current and future climate model simulations were run, in which anthropogenic emission changes affected climate, which fed back to natural emissions from lightning (NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, H2O2, HO2, CO), soils (dust, bacteria, NO, N2O, H2, CH4, H2S, DMS, OCS, CS2), the ocean (bacteria, sea spray, DMS, N2O, H2, CH4), vegetation (pollen, spores, isoprene, monoterpenes, methanol, other VOCs), and photosynthesis/respiration. New methods were derived to calculate lightning flash rates as a function of size-resolved collisions and other physical principles and pollen, spore, and bacteria emissions. Although the B1 scenario was "cleaner" than the A1B scenario, global warming increased more in the B1 scenario because much A1B warming was masked by additional reflective aerosol particles. Thus neither scenario is entirely beneficial from a climate and health perspective, and the best control measure is to reduce warming gases and warming/cooling particles together. Lightning emissions declined by ˜3% in the B1 scenario and ˜12% in the A1B scenario as the number of ice crystals, thus charge-separating bounceoffs, decreased. Net primary production increased by ˜2% in both scenarios. Emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes increased by ˜1% in the A1B scenario and 4-5% in the B1 scenario. Near-surface ozone increased by ˜14% in the A1B scenario and ˜4% in the B1 scenario, reducing ambient isoprene in the latter case. Gases from soils increased in both scenarios due to higher temperatures. Near-surface PM2.5 mass increased by ˜2% in the A1B scenario and decreased by ˜2% in the B1 scenario. The resulting 1.4% higher

  6. Impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone in Europe for present day and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Road traffic is an important anthropogenic source of NOx, CO and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) which act as precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone. The formation of ozone is highly non-linear. This means that the contribution of the road traffic sector cannot directly be derived from the amount of emitted species, because they are also determined by local emissions of other anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, long range transport of precursors and ozone can play an important role in determining the local ozone budget. For a complete assessment of the impact of road traffic emissions it is therefore important to resolve both, local emissions and long range transport. This can be achieved by the use of the newly developed MECO(n) model system, which on-line couples the global chemistry-climate-model EMAC with the regional chemistry-climate-model COSMO-CLM/MESSy. Both models use the same chemical speciation. This allows a highly consistent model chain from the global to the local scale. To quantify the contribution of the road traffic emissions to tropospheric ozone we use an accounting system of the relevant reaction pathways of the different species from different sources (called tagging method). This tagging scheme is implemented consistently on all scales, allowing a direct comparison of the contributions. With this model configuration we investigate the impact of road traffic emissions to the tropospheric ozone budget in Europe. For the year 2008 we compare different emission scenarios and investigate the influence of both model and emission resolution. In addition, results of a mitigation scenario for the year 2030 are presented. They indicate that the contribution of the road traffic sector can be reduced by local reductions of emissions during summer. During winter the importance of long range transport increases. This can lead to increased contributions of the road traffic sector (e.g. by increased emissions in the US) even if local

  7. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dove, Sophie G.; Kline, David I.; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E.; Tyson, Gene W.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-01-01

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  8. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  9. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  10. Simulation of ozone during the August 2003 heat wave and emission control scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vautard, R.; Honoré, C.; Beekmann, M.; Rouil, L.

    During August 2003, western European countries witnessed an unpreceeded 15-day long heat wave with record temperatures and unusually persistent high-ozone concentrations. In France, about 15 000 extra deaths occurred during this period. The study of photochemical smog during this episode is of primary interest since weather conditions were so extreme for western Europe that they provide a worst case scenario for air quality. This episode also provides an interesting benchmark for the evaluation air quality models. We present and evaluate the results of a regional simulation of the episode with the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model. In a reference run, the simulated ozone concentrations are compared to surface observations obtained from 237 monitoring stations in Europe. Statistical scores on diurnal cycle, daily maxima, spatial structure of ozone concentrations, and AOT60 show that the simulated values compare very well with the observed ones, although extreme ozone peaks are underestimated probably due to a lack of model resolution. We describe the simulated impacts on ozone of theoretical emission reduction scenarios. The current European legislation should lead in 2010 to a drastic reduction of health exposure (about half), as measured by the AOT60 indicator, and of the number of 180 μg m -3 exceedance hours (74% reduction). "Emergency" scenarios, with an assumed 20% emission reduction throughout Europe, would also be efficient (AOT60 indicator reduced by 28%). Over France, the efficiency of a national emergency scenario would be only about 2/3rd of that of a Europewide scenario. When the reduction starts after a few episode days, the time taken for the reduction to reach its full impact is about 3 days. Finally, it is shown that reduction of NO x emissions is twice as efficient as reduction in volatile organic compounds emissions.

  11. Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Kejun; Hu, Xiulian

    2005-12-01

    This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO2 emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO2 emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO2 emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO2 emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO2 emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO2 emissions control and mitigation. PMID:16512217

  12. Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Kejun; Hu, Xiulian

    2005-09-01

    This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO(2) emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO(2) emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO(2) emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO(2) emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO(2) emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO(2) emissions control and mitigation. PMID:20549450

  13. Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Kejun; Hu, Xiulian

    2005-09-01

    This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO(2) emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO(2) emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO(2) emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO(2) emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO(2) emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO(2) emissions control and mitigation.

  14. Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Kejun; Hu, Xiulian

    2005-12-01

    This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO2 emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO2 emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO2 emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO2 emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO2 emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO2 emissions control and mitigation.

  15. OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A; Billé, R; Cheung, W W L; Howes, E L; Joos, F; Allemand, D; Bopp, L; Cooley, S R; Eakin, C M; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Kelly, R P; Pörtner, H-O; Rogers, A D; Baxter, J M; Laffoley, D; Osborn, D; Rankovic, A; Rochette, J; Sumaila, U R; Treyer, S; Turley, C

    2015-07-01

    The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate. PMID:26138982

  16. OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A; Billé, R; Cheung, W W L; Howes, E L; Joos, F; Allemand, D; Bopp, L; Cooley, S R; Eakin, C M; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Kelly, R P; Pörtner, H-O; Rogers, A D; Baxter, J M; Laffoley, D; Osborn, D; Rankovic, A; Rochette, J; Sumaila, U R; Treyer, S; Turley, C

    2015-07-01

    The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

  17. Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon.

    PubMed

    Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Assis, Talita Oliveira; Dalla-Nora, Eloi L; Toledo, Peter Mann; Santos-Junior, Roberto Araújo Oliveira; Batistella, Mateus; Coelho, Andrea Santos; Savaget, Elza Kawakami; Aragão, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira Cruz; Nobre, Carlos Afonso; Ometto, Jean Pierre H

    2016-05-01

    Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km(2) yr(-1) in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km(2) yr(-1)) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary

  18. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  19. Integrated Modeling & Development of Emission Scenarios for Methane and Key Indirect Greenhouse Gases

    SciTech Connect

    Jain, Atul K.

    2005-09-30

    This report outlines main accomplishments on the development of Emission inventories and Scenarios for Key Indirect Greenhouse Gases (CO, VOCs, NOx) and methane supported by Office of Science (BER), US Department of Energy. This research produced 3 journal articles, 1 book chapter, and 4 research articles/abstracts in conference proceedings. In addition, this grant supported two PhD students and one undergraduate student at UIUC.

  20. Interpreting global energy and emission scenarios: Methods for understanding and communicating policy insights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hummel, Leslie

    Energy scenarios for the 21st century powerfully inform perceptions and expectations in the minds of energy investors, consumers, and policy-makers. Scenarios that stabilize global warming call for large-scale energy technology transitions, fueling debates about the relative roles for a range of technologies including nuclear power, carbon sequestration, biofuels, solar power, and efficient end-use devices. In the last decade, hundreds of scenarios have been published by more than a dozen research teams using different models, baselines and mitigation targets. Despite the efforts to summarize findings in a few major assessments, a gap in understanding remains at a critical science-policy juncture between scenario analysts and the audiences their work is designed to serve. Addressing the issue requires an interdisciplinary approach that incorporates knowledge and methods from the fields of energy engineering, economics, climate science, and policy analysis. This research applies two analytical techniques to investigate the effects of an imposed climate policy on the underlying energy system. The first disentangles the effect of a policy intervention on key demographic and technology drivers of fossil fuel use, and the second decomposes reductions in emissions by specific energy technology types. Because the techniques may be applied to any energy scenario with technology detail, this study demonstrates their application to ten sample stabilization scenarios from three leading models. Revealing the importance of data and assumptions overlooked or not well disclosed in the past, the results highlight an implausibly high pressure on energy supply innovations while the potential for energy efficiency improvements is systematically underestimated. The findings are significant to both scenario analysts and the decision-makers in public policy and private investment who are influenced by their work.

  1. Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

    PubMed Central

    Takeshita, Takayuki

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them. PMID:21845172

  2. Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: an assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Bouwman, Lex; Smith, Steven J.; Dentener, Frank

    2011-09-17

    Most long-term scenarios of global N emissions are produced by Integrated Assessment Models in the context of climate change assessment. The scenarios indicate that N emissions are likely to increase in the next decades, followed by a stabilization or decline. Critical factors for future N emissions are the development of the underlying drivers (especially fertilizer use, animal husbandry, transport and power generation), air pollution control policy and climate policy. The new scenarios made for climate change assessment, the Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs, are not representative of the range of possible N-emission projections. A more focused development of scenarios for air pollution may improve the relevance and quality of the scenarios.

  3. Power plant emissions: particulate matter-related health damages and the benefits of alternative emission reduction scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Schneider, C.

    2004-06-15

    This report estimates the avoidable health effects of each of a series of alternative regulatory scenarios for power plants, focusing on the adverse human health effects due to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) This report uses the same analytical methods that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency used in 2003 to prepare an analysis of the potential health effects of the proposed Clear Skies Act (EPA 2003). This report conducts an analysis of the impacts in 2010 and 2020 of three policy alternatives to the proposed Clear Skies Act, The Jeffords/Lieberman/Collins 'The Clean Power Act', S. 366, and the EPA August 2001 Straw Proposal (one of several alternatives EPA analyzed prior to the announcement of the Clear Skies Initiative in 2002). The report also examines the health impacts associated with the total emissions from coal fired electricity generating units in 2010. Chapter 2 describes the emissions inventory estimates, and the changes in the emissions associated with each scenario analyzed. Chapter 3 describes the methods used to estimate changes in particulate matter concentrations. Chapter 4 describes general issues arising in estimating and valuing changes in adverse health effects associated with changes in particulate matter. Chapter 5 describes in some detail the methods used for estimating and valuing adverse health effects, and Chapter 6 presents the results of these analyses. Chapter 7 presents estimates of the impact of these alternative policy options on the PM non-attainment status. 117 refs., 21 figs., 32 tabs., 3 apps.

  4. Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits. PMID:25412200

  5. Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

    PubMed

    Morita, Haruka; Yang, Suijia; Unger, Nadine; Kinney, Patrick L

    2014-12-16

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

  6. Non-Kyoto Radiative Forcing in Long-Run Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, Steven K.; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; Stefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-27

    Climate policies designed to achieve climate change objectives must consider radiative forcing from the Kyoto greenhouse gas, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Net positive forcing leads to global average temperature increases. Modeling of non-Kyoto forcing is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. Five of the nineteen models in the EMF-27 Study model both Kyoto and non-Kyoto forcing. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within these integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking significant positive forcing in reference non-climate policy projections. There are however large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing, with differences stemming from differences in relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions and fundamental differences in modeling structure and assumptions. Air pollution and non-Kyoto forcing decline in the climate policy scenarios. However, non-Kyoto forcing appears to be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty related to non-Kyoto forcing that must be considered.

  7. Large gain in air quality compared to an alternative anthropogenic emissions scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-08-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistry-transport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the year-to-year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  8. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  9. Military, Charter, Unreported Domestic Traffic and General Aviation 1976, 1984, 1992, and 2015 Emission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mortlock, Alan; VanAlstyne, Richard

    1998-01-01

    The report describes development of databases estimating aircraft engine exhaust emissions for the years 1976 and 1984 from global operations of Military, Charter, historic Soviet and Chinese, Unreported Domestic traffic, and General Aviation (GA). These databases were developed under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Subsonic Assessment (AST). McDonnell Douglas Corporation's (MDC), now part of the Boeing Company has previously estimated engine exhaust emissions' databases for the baseline year of 1992 and a 2015 forecast year scenario. Since their original creation, (Ward, 1994 and Metwally, 1995) revised technology algorithms have been developed. Additionally, GA databases have been created and all past NIDC emission inventories have been updated to reflect the new technology algorithms. Revised data (Baughcum, 1996 and Baughcum, 1997) for the scheduled inventories have been used in this report to provide a comparison of the total aviation emission forecasts from various components. Global results of two historic years (1976 and 1984), a baseline year (1992) and a forecast year (2015) are presented. Since engine emissions are directly related to fuel usage, an overview of individual aviation annual global fuel use for each inventory component is also given in this report.

  10. Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited. PMID:24569320

  11. Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited.

  12. Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Keller, David P; Feng, Ellias Y; Oschlies, Andreas

    2014-02-25

    The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited.

  13. Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Keller, David P; Feng, Ellias Y; Oschlies, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited. PMID:24569320

  14. Municipal solid waste management scenarios for Attica and their greenhouse gas emission impact.

    PubMed

    Papageorgiou, Asterios; Karagiannidis, Avraam; Barton, John R; Kalogirou, Efstratios

    2009-11-01

    Disposal of municipal solid waste in sanitary landfills is still the main waste management method in the Attica region, as in most regions of Greece. Nevertheless, diversion from landfilling is being promoted by regional plans, in which the perspectives of new waste treatment technologies are being evaluated. The present study aimed to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impact of different municipal solid waste treatment technologies currently under assessment in the new regional plan for Attica. These technologies are mechanical-biological treatment, mass-burn incineration and mechanical treatment and have been assessed in the context of different scenarios. The present study utilized existing methodologies and emission factors for the quantification of GHG emissions from the waste management process and found that all technologies under assessment could provide GHG emission savings. However, the performance and ranking of these technologies is strongly dependent on the existence of end markets for the waste-derived fuels produced by the mechanical-biological treatment processes. In the absence of these markets the disposal of these fuels would be necessary and thus significant GHG savings would be lost. PMID:19837710

  15. Changes in land cover and carbon emissions to 2050 from African tropical forests using policy scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laporte, N.; Galford, G. L.; Soares Filho, B. S.

    2011-12-01

    Africa has the second largest block of rainforest in the world, next to the Amazon basin, with the majority of the carbon being stored in the dense humid forests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Historically, political instability in the DRC kept development and deforestation low, with primary forest uses being extensive logging and small scale agriculture. In the last decade, political stability has opened the country to foreign investment in forested areas, largely for industrial-scale oil palm plantations and more recently to rice production. The DRC ranks worst on the IFPRI global hunger index, scoring "extremely serious" based on the proportion of undernourished population, prevalence of underweight in children under 5 and the mortality rates of children under 5. In fact, DRC saw its hunger score increase (worsen) from 1990 to 2010, with a 66% gain compared to the other 8 worsening countries increasing only 21% or less. This is a critical time for policy in the DRC, where business-as-usual (relatively low deforestation rates) is unlikely to continue given today's relative political stability and economic stabilization compared to the 1990s. The country must examine options for forest conservation in balance with foreign investment for use of forest resources, national development of rural livelihoods and domestic production of food. Here we present deforestation trajectories simulated through the year 2050 under a set of scenarios. The scenarios consider the relative carbon emissions from business-as-usual (no new policy), conservation (policy favoring protection and enforcement for forest areas), and a food security scenario (favoring clearing for industrial agriculture, extractive timber resources and development of new agricultural areas). Carbon emissions for each scenario are estimated with a coupled bookkeeping model. These scenarios are not predictive of the future, rather, they are meant to provide an understanding of the outcomes of

  16. Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovenduski, Nicole S.; McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew C.

    2016-09-01

    We quantify and isolate the sources of projection uncertainty in annual-mean sea-air CO2 flux over the period 2006-2080 on global and regional scales using output from two sets of ensembles with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For annual-mean, globally-integrated sea-air CO2 flux, uncertainty grows with prediction lead time and is primarily attributed to uncertainty in emission scenario. At the regional scale of the California Current System, we observe relatively high uncertainty that is nearly constant for all prediction lead times, and is dominated by internal climate variability and model structure, respectively in the CESM and CMIP5 model suites. Analysis of CO2 flux projections over 17 biogeographical biomes reveals a spatially heterogenous pattern of projection uncertainty. On the biome scale, uncertainty is driven by a combination of internal climate variability and model structure, with emission scenario emerging as the dominant source for long projection lead times in both modeling suites.

  17. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    PubMed

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  18. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  19. Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pardaens, A. K.; Lowe, J. A.; Brown, S.; Nicholls, R. J.; de Gusmão, D.

    2011-06-01

    Using projections from two coupled climate models (HadCM3C and HadGEM2-AO), we consider the effect on 21st century sea-level rise (SLR) of mitigation policies relative to a scenario of business-as-usual (BAU). Around a third of the global-mean SLR over the century is avoided by a mitigation scenario under which global-mean near surface air temperature stabilises close to the Copenhagen Accord limit of a 2°C increase. Under BAU (a variant of the A1B scenario) the model-averaged projected SLR for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 is 0.29 m-0.51 m (5%-95% uncertainties from treatment of land-based ice melt); under mitigation (E1 scenario) it is 0.17 m-0.34 m. This reduction is primarily from reduced thermal expansion. The spatial patterns of regional SLR are fairly dissimilar between the models, but are qualitatively similar across scenarios for a particular model. An impacts model suggests that by the end of the 21st century and without upgrade in defences around 55% of the 84 million additional people flooded per year globally under BAU (from SLR alone) could be avoided under such mitigation. The above projections of SLR follow the methodology of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. We have, however, also conducted a sensitivity study of SLR and its impacts where the possibility of accelerated ice sheet dynamics is accounted for.

  20. Global Source-Receptor Relationships for Mercury Deposition Under Present-Day and 2050 Emissions Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Corbitt, Elizabeth S.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Holmes, Christopher D.; Streets, David G.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

    2011-01-01

    Global policies regulating anthropogenic mercury require an understanding of the relationship between emitted and deposited mercury on intercontinental scales. Here we examine source-receptor relationships for present-day conditions and for four 2050 IPCC scenarios encompassing a range of economic development and environmental regulation projections. We use the GEOS-Chem global model to track mercury from its point of emission through rapid cycling in surface ocean and land reservoirs to its accumulation in longer-lived ocean and soil pools. Deposited mercury has a local component (emitted HgII, lifetime of 3.7 days against deposition) and a global component (emitted Hg0, lifetime of 6 months against deposition). Fast recycling of deposited mercury through photoreduction of HgII and re-emission of Hg0 from surface reservoirs (ice, land, surface ocean) increases the effective lifetime of anthropogenic mercury to 9 months against loss to legacy reservoirs (soil pools and the subsurface ocean). This lifetime is still sufficiently short that source-receptor relationships have a strong hemispheric signature. Asian emissions are the largest source of anthropogenic deposition to all ocean basins, though there is also regional source influence from upwind continents. Current anthropogenic emissions account for only about one-third of mercury deposition to the global ocean with the remainder from natural and legacy sources. However, controls on anthropogenic emissions would have the added benefit of reducing the legacy mercury re-emitted to the atmosphere. Better understanding is needed of the timescales for transfer of mercury from active pools to stable geochemical reservoirs. PMID:22050654

  1. Global dynamical projections of surface ocean wave climate for a future high greenhouse gas emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemer, Mark A.; Katzfey, Jack; Trenham, Claire E.

    2013-10-01

    A global 1° implementation of the spectral wave model, WaveWatch III, was forced with surface winds from two atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs: ECHAM5 and CSIRO Mk3.5), dynamically downscaled to 60 km using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model. Two 30-yr time slices were simulated: 1979-2009 representing current climate, and 2070-2099 representing a future climate scenario under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRES A2). A further wave model simulation with forcing from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis for 1979-2009, using the same model settings as the climate model forced runs, serves as a benchmark hindcast to assess skill of climate-model-derived wave fields. Climate model forced wave simulations for the 1979-2009 time-slice display biases relative to the benchmark wave climate - notably an overestimation of wave generation in the Southern Ocean, which influences broad regions of the Pacific which receive these waves as swell. Wave model runs were repeated following bias-adjustment of the climate model forcing winds with the aim to reduce biases, but model skill to simulate the monthly 99th percentile of significant wave heights deteriorates severely. Projected future changes in wave climate (between 1979-2009 and 2070-2099) under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario are relatively insensitive to whether bias-adjustment of winds has been applied. Two robust features of projected change are observed from the two climate model sets which are qualitatively consistent with previous studies: a projected increase of Southern Ocean wave generation leading to approximately 10% increase in Southern Ocean mean significant wave heights (HSm), and a projected decrease in wave generation in the North Atlantic, with changes in HSm of similar magnitude. Interannual anomalies of monthly mean significant wave height, HSm, were regressed against climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index - SOI; North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO and

  2. The Future of Land Use in the United States: Downscaling SRES Emission Scenarios to Ecoregions and Pixels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Sayler, K.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R.; Sleeter, R. R.; Zhu, Z.; Auch, R.; Acevedo, W.; Soulard, C. E.; Griffith, G.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario analysis has emerged as a useful tool for evaluating uncertain futures in ecological systems. We describe research initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a comprehensive portfolio of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) scenarios for the United States. The USGS has identified LULC scenarios as a focal area of future research. Scenarios are used to assist in the understanding of possible future developments in complex systems that typically have high levels of scientific uncertainty. Scenarios generally require knowledge of history and current conditions, and specific understanding about how drivers of change have acted to influence the historical and current condition. We describe methods and results of downscaling LULC and associated narrative storylines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The downscaling methods leverage three primary sources of information: 1) comprehensive land-use histories developed through remote sensing and survey data, 2) modeled LULC outputs from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), and 3) expert knowledge of regional land change. First, national and ecoregional narrative storylines were derived from the global IPCC framework. Based on the characteristics of downscaled narrative storylines, experts used historical data and information on the rates and types of LULC change, in conjunction with coarse-scale IAM projections of land use, to produce future quantitative scenarios. An accounting model was developed to handle all aspects of scenario downscaling. Here we present the methods used to construct ecoregion-specific scenarios of LULC change consistent with the IPCC-SRES scenarios, as well as results at multiple geographic scales. The USGS LandCarbon assessment is implementing a scenario-based approach for projecting changes in LULC that may result in changes to ecosystem carbon flux and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results described

  3. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M.-S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-03-01

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101-2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5°C relative to 1850-1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2°C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5-4.5°C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO2, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model

  4. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R

  5. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE PAGES

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

  6. Changes in the spatial distribution of O3, NO and CO in different vehicular emission scenarios in Sao Paulo, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiquetto, J. B.; Silva, M. E. S.; Ynoue, R.; Cabral-Miranda, W.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric pollution in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) has been investigated using the WRF/Chem model version 3.2.1 in a 1X1 km emission grid. Based on a local emission inventory, a control simulation (CTRL) was performed for the period 28/01-02/02/2014, during a summer season characterized by intense solar radiation and temperature positive anomalies, which resulted in high pollutant concentration. Sensitivity tests were performed using different vehicular emission scenarios and CTRL. In scenario A), emissions were removed from a region which encompasses almost the entire urban area of the SPMA, only roads in the outskirts had regular emissions. Comparing scenario A) to CTRL, sharp decreases in CO, NO and NO2 were observed inside the SPMA. Ozone decreased slighlty during the day, probably due to the significant absence of precursor emissions which form ozone during the day in the presence of sunlight. On the other hand, ozone concentrations increased at night, influenced by the absence of ozone-consuming precursors inside the densely urbanized SPMA, in the absence of sunlight. In scenario B), we removed emissions from a smaller area, corresponding roughly to an expanded downtown area (where a few traffic restriction laws operate). The goal of this scenario was to observe possible impacts if more strict traffic restriction laws were implemented. In scenario C), emissions were decreased by 50% in the same area, in an attempt to characterize concentrations in an urban toll scenario. Results from scenarios B) and C) showed a decrease in NO, NO2 and CO, but less intense than in scenario A). On the other hand, a higher increase in ozone was detected both during the day and at night compared to the CTRL and scenario A). These results suggests that, along with lower concentrations of precursor gases and CO, higher ozone concentrations are likely to be expected in downtown Sao Paulo if more severe traffic restriction laws should be implemented. This is concerning

  7. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  8. Mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources in Europe in 2000 and their scenarios until 2020.

    PubMed

    Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Pacyna, Jozef M; Fudala, Janina; Strzelecka-Jastrzab, Ewa; Hlawiczka, Stanislaw; Panasiuk, Damian

    2006-10-15

    The paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding European emissions of mercury and presents estimates of European emissions of mercury to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources for the year 2000. This information was then used as a basis for Hg emission scenario development until the year 2020. Combustion of coal in power plants and residential heat furnaces generates about half of the European emissions being 239 tonnes. The coal combustion is followed by the production of caustic soda with the use of the Hg cell process (17%). Major points of mercury emission generation in the mercury cell process include: by-product hydrogen stream, end box ventilation air, and cell room ventilation air. This technology is now being changed to other caustic soda production technologies and further reduction of Hg emissions is expected in this connection. The third category on the list of the largest Hg emitters in Europe is cement production (about 13%). The largest emissions were estimated for Russia (the European part of the country), contributing with about 27% to the European emissions, followed by Poland, Germany, Spain, Ukraine, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. Most of these countries use coal as a major source of energy in order to meet the electricity and heat demands. In general, countries in the Central and Eastern Europe generated the main part of the European emissions in 2000. Emission reductions between 20% and 80% of the 2000 emission amounts can be obtained by the year 2020, as estimated by various scenarios. PMID:16887169

  9. Global Air Quality Predictions of Particulate Matter in the Middle East and Sensitivity to Future Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Couzo, E. A.; Holmes, C. D.; Paltsev, S.; Alawad, A.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We examine the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers of future PM in the Middle East region using two future emissions scenarios to drive the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model. The Arabian Peninsula is a major source of windblown dust as well as anthropogenic aerosols. Future emissions - driven jointly and individually by climate change and anthropogenic emissions from this rapidly growing region - will play an important role in both climate forcing and human health impacts from particulate matter. We use two scenarios to compare their climate and air quality implications. First, we use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for four radiative forcing cases. Second, we develop a consistent future greenhouse gas and conventional pollutant emission inventory using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that calculates how economic growth and anthropogenic emissions change as a result of policies and other stressors. With EPPA, we examine three emissions cases, a business-as-usual case and two stabilization cases leading to anthropogenic radiative forcings of 3.7 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2. We use these scenarios to drive GEOS-Chem for present and future climate, assessing changes in chemical composition of aerosol and drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, out to 2050. We find that projected anthropogenic emissions are strong determinants of future particulate matter air quality in the Middle East region.

  10. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

  11. Analysis of two scenarios for the early optical emission of the gamma-ray burst afterglows 990123 and 021211

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panaitescu, A.; Kumar, P.

    2004-09-01

    The optical light curves of gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows 990123 and 021211 exhibit a steep decay at 100-600 s after the burst, the decay becoming slower after about 10 min. We investigate two scenarios for the fast decaying early optical emission of these GRB afterglows. In the reverse-forward shock scenario, this emission arises in the reverse shock crossing the GRB ejecta, the mitigation of the light-curve decay occurring when the forward shock emission overtakes that from the reverse shock. Both a homogeneous and wind-like circumburst medium are considered. In the wind-bubble scenario, the steeply decaying, early optical emission arises from the forward shock interacting with a r-2 bubble, with a negligible contribution from the reverse shock, the slower decay starting when the blast wave reaches the bubble termination shock and enters a homogeneous region of the circumburst medium. We determine the shock microphysical parameters, ejecta kinetic energy and circumburst density, which accommodate the radio and optical measurements of the GRB afterglows 990123 and 021211. We find that, for a homogeneous medium, the radio and optical emissions of the afterglow 990123 can be accommodated by the reverse-forward shock scenario if the microphysical parameters behind the two shocks differ substantially. A wind-like circumburst medium also allows the reverse-forward shock scenario to account for the radio and optical properties of the afterglows 990123 and 021211, but the required wind densities are at least 10 times smaller than those of Galactic Wolf-Rayet stars. The wind-bubble scenario requires a variation of the microphysical parameters when the afterglow fireball reaches the wind termination shock, which seems a contrived feature.

  12. PULMONARY AND SYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF ZINC-CONTAINING EMISSION PARTICLES IN THREE RAT STRAINS: MULTIPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract
    Pulmonary and Systemic Effects of Zinc-Containing Emission Particles in Three Rat Strains: Multiple Exposure Scenarios. Kodavanti, U. P., Schladweiler, M. C. J., Ledbetter, A. D., Hauser, R.*, Christiani, D. C.*, McGee, J., Richards, J. R., and Costa, D. L. (2002)....

  13. Analysis of UK and European NOx and VOC emission scenarios in the Defra model intercomparison exercise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derwent, Richard; Beevers, Sean; Chemel, Charles; Cooke, Sally; Francis, Xavier; Fraser, Andrea; Heal, Mathew R.; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Lingard, Justin; Redington, Alison; Sokhi, Ranjeet; Vieno, Massimo

    2014-09-01

    Simple emission scenarios have been implemented in eight United Kingdom air quality models with the aim of assessing how these models compared when addressing whether photochemical ozone formation in southern England was NOx- or VOC-sensitive and whether ozone precursor sources in the UK or in the Rest of Europe (RoE) were the most important during July 2006. The suite of models included three Eulerian-grid models (three implementations of one of these models), a Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model and two moving box air parcel models. The assignments as to NOx- or VOC-sensitive and to UK- versus RoE-dominant, turned out to be highly variable and often contradictory between the individual models. However, when the assignments were filtered by model performance on each day, many of the contradictions could be eliminated. Nevertheless, no one model was found to be the 'best' model on all days, indicating that no single air quality model could currently be relied upon to inform policymakers robustly in terms of NOx- versus VOC-sensitivity and UK- versus RoE-dominance on each day. It is important to maintain a diversity in model approaches.

  14. Biohydrogen production from microalgal biomass: energy requirement, CO2 emissions and scale-up scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Ana F; Ortigueira, Joana; Alves, Luís; Gouveia, Luísa; Moura, Patrícia; Silva, Carla

    2013-09-01

    This paper presents a life cycle inventory of biohydrogen production by Clostridium butyricum through the fermentation of the whole Scenedesmus obliquus biomass. The main purpose of this work was to determine the energy consumption and CO2 emissions during the production of hydrogen. This was accomplished through the fermentation of the microalgal biomass cultivated in an outdoor raceway pond and the preparation of the inoculum and culture media. The scale-up scenarios are discussed aiming for a potential application to a fuel cell hybrid taxi fleet. The H2 yield obtained was 7.3 g H2/kg of S. obliquus dried biomass. The results show that the production of biohydrogen required 71-100 MJ/MJ(H2) and emitted about 5-6 kg CO2/MJ(H2). Other studies and production technologies were taken into account to discuss an eventual process scale-up. Increased production rates of microalgal biomass and biohydrogen are necessary for bioH2 to become competitive with conventional production pathways.

  15. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

  16. A SCENARIO FOR THE FINE STRUCTURES OF SOLAR TYPE IIIb RADIO BURSTS BASED ON ELECTRON CYCLOTRON MASER EMISSION

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, C. B.

    2015-06-10

    A scenario based on electron cyclotron maser (ECM) emission is proposed for the fine structures of solar radio emission. It is suggested that under certain conditions modulation of the ratio between the plasma frequency and electron gyro frequency by ultra-low-frequency waves, which is a key parameter for excitation of ECM instability, may lead to the intermittent emission of radio waves. As an example, the explanation for the observed fine-structure components in the solar Type IIIb bursts is discussed in detail. Three primary issues of Type IIIb bursts are addressed: (1) the physical mechanism that results in intermittent emission elements that form a chain in the dynamic spectrum of Type IIIb bursts, (2) the cause of split pairs (or double stria) and triple stria, and (3) why only IIIb–III bursts are observed in the events of fundamental harmonic pair emission whereas IIIb–IIIb or III–IIIb bursts are very rarely observed.

  17. A Scenario for the Fine Structures of Solar Type IIIb Radio Bursts Based on Electron Cyclotron Maser Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C. B.

    2015-06-01

    A scenario based on electron cyclotron maser (ECM) emission is proposed for the fine structures of solar radio emission. It is suggested that under certain conditions modulation of the ratio between the plasma frequency and electron gyro frequency by ultra-low-frequency waves, which is a key parameter for excitation of ECM instability, may lead to the intermittent emission of radio waves. As an example, the explanation for the observed fine-structure components in the solar Type IIIb bursts is discussed in detail. Three primary issues of Type IIIb bursts are addressed: (1) the physical mechanism that results in intermittent emission elements that form a chain in the dynamic spectrum of Type IIIb bursts, (2) the cause of split pairs (or double stria) and triple stria, and (3) why only IIIb-III bursts are observed in the events of fundamental harmonic pair emission whereas IIIb-IIIb or III-IIIb bursts are very rarely observed.

  18. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh

    2016-02-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions—southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia—and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1 month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90 % of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2 weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes.

  19. Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joos, Fortunat; Prentice, I. Colin; Sitch, Stephen; Meyer, Robert; Hooss, Georg; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Gerber, Stefan; Hasselmann, Klaus

    2001-12-01

    A coupled physical-biogeochemical climate model that includes a dynamic global vegetation model and a representation of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is driven by the nonintervention emission scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Atmospheric CO2, carbon sinks, radiative forcing by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, changes in the fields of surface-air temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, ocean thermal expansion, and vegetation structure are projected. Up to 2100, atmospheric CO2 increases to 540 ppm for the lowest and to 960 ppm for the highest emission scenario analyzed. Sensitivity analyses suggest an uncertainty in these projections of -10 to +30% for a given emission scenario. Radiative forcing is estimated to increase between 3 and 8 W m-2 between now and 2100. Simulated warmer conditions in North America and Eurasia affect ecosystem structure: boreal trees expand poleward in high latitudes and are partly replaced by temperate trees and grasses at lower latitudes. The consequences for terrestrial carbon storage depend on the assumed sensitivity of climate to radiative forcing, the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature, and the rate of increase in radiative forcing by both CO2 and other GHGs. In the most extreme cases, the terrestrial biosphere becomes a source of carbon during the second half of the century. High GHG emissions and high contributions of non-CO2 agents to radiative forcing favor a transient terrestrial carbon source by enhancing warming and the associated release of soil carbon.

  20. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  1. Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

  2. The impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the greater North Sea region - Part 2: Scenarios for 2030

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthias, V.; Aulinger, A.; Backes, A.; Bieser, J.; Geyer, B.; Quante, M.; Zeretzke, M.

    2016-01-01

    Scenarios for future shipping emissions in the North Sea have been developed in the framework of the Clean North Sea Shipping project. The effects of changing NOx and SO2 emissions were investigated with the CMAQ chemistry transport model for the year 2030 in the North Sea area. It has been found that, compared to today, the contribution of shipping to the NO2 and O3 concentrations will increase due to the expected enhanced traffic by more than 20 and 5 %, respectively, by 2030 if no regulation for further emission reductions is implemented in the North Sea area. PM2.5 will decrease slightly because the sulfur contents in ship fuels will be reduced as international regulations foresee. The effects differ largely between regions, seasons and date of the implementation of stricter regulations for NOx emissions from newly built ships.

  3. Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies

    SciTech Connect

    Moss, Richard H.; Babiker, Mustafa; Brinkman, Sander; Calvo, Eduardo; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Elgizouli, Ismail; Emori, S.; Lin, Erda; Hibbard, K.; Jones, Roger; Kainuma, M.; Kelleher, Jessica; Lamarque, J. F.; Manning, M.; Matthews, Ben; Meehl, J.; Meyer, Leo; Mitchell, John; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; O'Neill, Brian; Pichs, Ramon; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven; Runci, Paul J.; Stouffer, Ronald; VanVuuren, D.; Weyant, John; Wilbanks, Thomas; van Ypersele, Jean P.; Zurek, Monica

    2008-10-01

    This report summarizes the findings and recommendations from the Expert Meeting on New Scenarios in Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, 19- 21 September 2007. This report is the culmination of the combined efforts of the New Scenarios Steering Committee, an author team composed primarily of members of the research community, and numerous other meeting participants and external reviewers who provided extensive comments during the expert review process.

  4. Improving fossil fuel emissions scenarios with urban ecosystem studies: A case study in the Salt Lake-Ogden metropolitan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pataki, D. E.; Dudley-Murphy, E. A.; Emmi, P. C.; Forster, C. B.; Mills, J. I.; Pardyjak, E. R.; Peterson, T. R.

    2005-05-01

    Scenarios of the future trajectory of fossil fuel emissions have been generated at the global scale using assumptions about regional to global economic growth and demography. A limitation to this approach is the mismatch in scale between local geographical, cultural, and economic factors that influence patterns of energy and fuel use and their impact on global emissions. However, resolving mismatches between local and global processes has been successfully addressed in other aspects of carbon cycle science, such as natural sources and sinks of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We propose a similar approach for reducing uncertainty in fossil fuel emissions scenarios with process-level studies of the factors underlying emissions at the local scale. We initiated a project to apply a whole ecosystem framework to the study of CO2 emissions in a rapidly urbanizing region in the United States. Our goal was to quantify both biophysical and socioeconomic aspects of urban ecosystem function that determined net CO2 emissions from the major sectors in the Salt Lake-Ogden metropolitan region, an area characterized by good historical records, a highly seasonal climate, and a rapid rate of both population growth and urban expansion. We analyzed the strong linkages between energy use and climate in the region with data from the local utilities. We also applied a linked land use- transportation framework that quantified interactions between urban development and emissions from the transportation sector. These processes were captured in a systems dynamics model of urban ecosystem function that incorporated stakeholder involvement in model development using a mediated modeling approach. The model was validated with direct measurements of CO2 fluxes by eddy covariance and attribution of local CO2 concentrations to fuel types using stable isotopes. The model may be used to evaluate possible consequences of policy levers such as changes in urban developmental densities, acceleration of

  5. Improving fossil fuel emissions scenarios with urban ecosystem studies: A case study in the Salt Lake-Ogden metropolitan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pataki, D. E.; Dudley-Murphy, E. A.; Emmi, P. C.; Forster, C. B.; Mills, J. I.; Pardyjak, E. R.; Peterson, T. R.

    2006-12-01

    Scenarios of the future trajectory of fossil fuel emissions have been generated at the global scale using assumptions about regional to global economic growth and demography. A limitation to this approach is the mismatch in scale between local geographical, cultural, and economic factors that influence patterns of energy and fuel use and their impact on global emissions. However, resolving mismatches between local and global processes has been successfully addressed in other aspects of carbon cycle science, such as natural sources and sinks of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We propose a similar approach for reducing uncertainty in fossil fuel emissions scenarios with process-level studies of the factors underlying emissions at the local scale. We initiated a project to apply a whole ecosystem framework to the study of CO2 emissions in a rapidly urbanizing region in the United States. Our goal was to quantify both biophysical and socioeconomic aspects of urban ecosystem function that determined net CO2 emissions from the major sectors in the Salt Lake-Ogden metropolitan region, an area characterized by good historical records, a highly seasonal climate, and a rapid rate of both population growth and urban expansion. We analyzed the strong linkages between energy use and climate in the region with data from the local utilities. We also applied a linked land use- transportation framework that quantified interactions between urban development and emissions from the transportation sector. These processes were captured in a systems dynamics model of urban ecosystem function that incorporated stakeholder involvement in model development using a mediated modeling approach. The model was validated with direct measurements of CO2 fluxes by eddy covariance and attribution of local CO2 concentrations to fuel types using stable isotopes. The model may be used to evaluate possible consequences of policy levers such as changes in urban developmental densities, acceleration of

  6. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

    PubMed

    Matsuno, Taroh; Maruyama, Koki; Tsutsui, Junichi

    2012-01-01

    Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO(2) emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.

  7. Aircraft Emission Scenarios Projected in Year 2015 for the NASA Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) High Speed Civil Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCTs) on a universal airline network. Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The HSCT scenarios are calculated using the NASA technology concept airplane (TCA) and update an earlier report. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer pressure altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  8. ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

  9. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO FORMATION SCENARIOS OF BURSTY RADIO EMISSION FROM ULTRACOOL DWARFS

    SciTech Connect

    Kuznetsov, A. A.; Doyle, J. G.; Yu, S.; Hallinan, G.; Antonova, A.; Golden, A.

    2012-02-10

    Recently, a number of ultracool dwarfs have been found to produce periodic radio bursts with high brightness temperature and polarization degree; the emission properties are similar to the auroral radio emissions of the magnetized planets of the solar system. We simulate the dynamic spectra of radio emission from ultracool dwarfs. The emission is assumed to be generated due to the electron-cyclotron maser instability. We consider two source models: the emission caused by interaction with a satellite and the emission from a narrow sector of active longitudes; the stellar magnetic field is modeled by a tilted dipole. We have found that for the dwarf TVLM 513-46546, the model of the satellite-induced emission is inconsistent with observations. On the other hand, the model of emission from an active sector is able to reproduce qualitatively the main features of the radio light curves of this dwarf; the magnetic dipole seems to be highly tilted (by about 60 Degree-Sign ) with respect to the rotation axis.

  10. Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Wein, Anne; Bliss, Norman B.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Li, Zhengpeng

    2015-01-01

    We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss and potential carbon savings. Wetland avoided loss scenarios, superimposed upon LULC change scenarios, quantified carbon stocks preserved under criteria of carbon densities or land value plus cropland suitability. Up to 3420 km2 of wetlands may be lost in the region by 2050, mainly due to conversion of herbaceous wetlands in the Temperate Prairies where soil organic carbon (SOC) is highest. SOC loss would be approximately 0.20 ± 0.15 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year (MgC ha−1 yr−1), depending upon tillage practices on converted wetlands, and total ecosystem carbon loss in woody wetlands would be approximately 0.81 ± 0.41 MgC ha−1 yr−1, based on biogeochemical model results. Among wetlands vulnerable to conversion, wetlands in the Northern Glaciated Plains and Lake Agassiz Plains ecoregions exhibit very high mean SOC and on average, relatively low land values, potentially creating economically competitive opportunities for avoided carbon loss. This mitigation scenarios approach may be adapted by managers using their own preferred criteria to select sites that best meet their objectives. Results can help prioritize field-based assessments, where site-level investigations of carbon stocks, land value, and consideration of local priorities for climate change mitigation programs are needed.

  11. Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, T.

    2015-12-01

    A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

  12. Greenhouse Gas Emission from Contrasting Management Scenarios in the Northern Corn Belt

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Long-term cropping systems field plots were established in 2002 in west central Minnesota to compare tillage, rotation and fertilizer treatments and to identify and develop economically viable and environmentally sustainable farming systems. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission was monitored in three scena...

  13. Trend and uncertainty analysis of simulated climate change impacts with multiple GCMs and emission scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Impacts of climate change on hydrology, soil erosion, and wheat production during 2010-2039 at El Reno in central Oklahoma, USA, were simulated using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Projections from four GCMs (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emissions scenari...

  14. ESP v2.0: enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States - addressing spatial allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ran, L.; Loughlin, D. H.; Yang, D.; Adelman, Z.; Baek, B. H.; Nolte, C. G.

    2015-01-01

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census Division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.

  15. Projected dynamics of abiotic risks in boreal forest ecosystems (SRES A1B, B1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panferov, O.; Ahrends, B.; Doering, C.; Sogachev, A.

    2009-04-01

    The ongoing climate change causes an increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008), which can result in wide area damage events (drought, windthrows/breaks) within boreal forest ecosystem. The damage effects, however, depend not only on the strength of a driving force itself (e.g. wind speed) but also on combinations of effecting agents and forest structure. Thus, the present study investigates the projected future developments of abiotic risks in different boreal forests during the 21st Century under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2°, using daily time- steps. With these input data the small-scale modelling with coupled process based sub-models (Jansen et al., 2008) was carried out e.g. for Solling region, (Germany) calculating the water and energy balance of forest ecosystems with modified BROOK 90 (Ahrends et al., 2009) and wind loading on trees with 3D ABL model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008). Norway spruce and Scots pine of various ages were chosen as typical tree species for boreal forest ecosystems and cambisols, podzolic cambisols and stagnosols as typical soil types. The risks of drought and windthrow/breaks for a certain forest stand result from daily combinations of soil water characteristics, static and gust wind loads and soil texture. Damaged stands show higher vulnerability and thus - positive feedback to climate forcing (Vygodskaya et al., 2008). Therefore differences of microclimatological conditions in the remaining stand after changes in forest structure (Radler et al, 2008) were taken into account. Modell output was aggregated to 30-years periods and compared to "present conditions" of 1981-2010. The results show an increment of drought risks towards 2100 caused by changes in precipitation pattern and increase of mean air temperature, whereas the A1B scenario is

  16. Canadian economic and emissions model for agriculture, C.E.E.M.A., version 1.0, report 2: Preliminary results of selected scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kulshreshtha, S.N.

    1999-09-01

    This is one of three technical reports which document an integrated agro-ecological economic modelling system that can be used to simultaneously assess the economic and the greenhouse gas emission impacts of agricultural policies at the regional and national levels. After an introduction on the importance of agricultural emissions of greenhouse gases and the need for a study of this issue, chapter 2 reviews the greenhouse gas emission model. Chapter 3 contains model-based estimates of greenhouse gas emission levels for the base year of 1990. Chapter 4 predicts future levels of emissions under medium-term baseline projections. Chapter 5 reviews some of the mitigation strategies available to Canadian farmers and assesses their impact on greenhouse emissions. Implications of trends in livestock production are also examined as a separate scenario. Using the scenarios developed in chapter 5, chapter 6 presents results of greenhouse gas emission estimates for individual gases, various production regions, and various emissions activities. The final chapter summarizes major results and discusses their implications for agricultural policy. Appendices include a description of the modelling methodology and a table showing estimates of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by crop and livestock production activities under various scenarios.

  17. Study of the impact of cruise and passenger ships on a Mediterranean port city air quality - Study of future emission mitigation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Kontos, Serafim; Giannaros, Christos; Melas, Dimitrios

    2015-04-01

    An increase of the passenger ships traffic is expected in the Mediterranean Sea as targeted by the EU Blue Growth initiative. This increase is expected to impact the Mediterranean port-cities air quality considering not only the conventional atmospheric pollutants but also the toxic ones that are emitted by the ships (e.g. Nickel). The aim of this study is the estimation of the present and future time pollutant emissions from cruise and passenger maritime transport in the port area of Thessaloniki (Greece) as well as the impact of those emissions on the city air quality. Cruise and passenger ship emissions have been estimated for the year 2013 over a 100m spatial resolution grid which covers the greater port area of Thessaloniki. Emissions have been estimated for the following macro-pollutants; NOx, SO2, NMVOC, CO, CO2 and particulate matter (PM). In addition, the most important micro-pollutants studied in this work are As, Cd, Pb, Ni and Benzo(a)pyrene for which air quality limits have been set by the EU. Emissions have been estimated for three operation modes; cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. For the calculation of the present time maritime emissions, the activity data used were provided by the Thessaloniki Port Authority S.A. Moreover, future pollutant emissions are estimated using the future activity data provided by the Port Authority and the IMO legislation for shipping in the future. In addition, two mitigation emission scenarios are examined; the use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a fuel used by ships and the implementation of cold ironing which is the electrification of ships during hotelling mode leading to the elimination of the corresponding emissions. The impact of the present and future passenger ship emissions on the air quality of Thessaloniki is examined with the use of the model CALPUFF applied over the 100m spatial resolution grid using the meteorology of WRF. Simulations of the modeling system are performed for four different emission

  18. Mars methane emission and transport scenarios using the GEM-Mars GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neary, Lori; Daerden, Frank; Kaminski, J. W.; McConnell, J. C.

    2010-05-01

    The observation of methane (Formisano et al., 2004; Krasnopolsky et al., 2004; Mumma et al., 2009) in the Martian atmosphere has raised questions about its source and origin as well as its chemical behaviour. The photochemical lifetime of methane is on the order of several hundred years which would give a well-mixed, uniform distribution but measurements suggest locally enhanced "plumes". The GEM-Mars three-dimensional global chemistry-climate model is used to investigate the possible emission rates and lifetime of methane. The model simulations have a horizontal resolution of 4x4 degrees with 101 vertical levels up to approximately 140 km. References Formisano, V., S. Atreya, T. Encrenaz, N. Ignatiev, and M. Giuranna (2004), Detection of Methane in the Atmosphere of Mars, Science 306, 1758 (2004). Krasnopolsky, V. A., J. P. Maillard, and T. C. Owen (2004), Icarus 172, 537. Mumma, M.J., G.L. Villanueva, R.E. Novak, T. Hewagama, B.P. Bonev, M.A. DiSanti, A.M. Mandell, and M.D. Smith (2009), Strong Release of Methane on Mars in Northern Summer 2003. Science, 2009. 323: p. 1041-1045.

  19. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    PubMed

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning.

  20. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    PubMed

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  1. Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

    SciTech Connect

    McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McMahon, James E.

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.

  2. ESP v2.0: enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States - addressing spatial allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ran, L.; Loughlin, D. H.; Yang, D.; Adelman, Z.; Baek, B. H.; Nolte, C. G.

    2015-06-01

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year non-power sector emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.

  3. Decays B(s)→a1(b1)D(s), a1(b1)D(s)* in the perturbative QCD approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Zhi-Qing

    2013-04-01

    Within the framework of the perturbative QCD approach, we study the branching ratios of the two-body charmed decays B(s)→a1(b1)D(s), a1(b1)D(s)*, which, including Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa, allowed and suppressed decays. Our calculations are consistent with the currently available data and the experimental upper limits. Certainly, many of these predicted channels have not been measured by experiments and can be confronted with the future experimental data. We also discuss the polarization factions of the decays B(s)→a1(b1)D(s)*, some of which are sensitive to the distinct Gegenbauer moments of the wave functions and the decay constants of mesons a1 and b1.

  4. 76 FR 56637 - Airworthiness Directives; Lycoming Engines Model IO-720-A1B Reciprocating Engines

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-14

    ... Policies and Procedures (44 FR 11034, February 26, 1979), (3) Will not affect intrastate aviation in Alaska... Model IO-720-A1B Reciprocating Engines AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Final... model IO-720-A1B Lycoming Engines reciprocating engines. This AD requires a crankshaft inspection...

  5. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: A practical zero-emissions scenario

    PubMed Central

    MATSUNO, Taroh; MARUYAMA, Koki; TSUTSUI, Junichi

    2012-01-01

    Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 ℃ above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO2 emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint. PMID:22850728

  6. Effects of “Reduced” and “Business-As-Usual” CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Algal Territories of the Damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae)

    PubMed Central

    Bender, Dorothea; Champ, Connor Michael; Kline, David; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO2. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO2 levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 “reduced” and the A1FI “business-as-usual” CO2 emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under “reduced” CO2 emission, but not “business-as-usual” scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO2 emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under “reduced” emission scenarios. PMID:26121163

  7. Effects of "Reduced" and "Business-As-Usual" CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Algal Territories of the Damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae).

    PubMed

    Bender, Dorothea; Champ, Connor Michael; Kline, David; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO2. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO2 levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 "reduced" and the A1FI "business-as-usual" CO2 emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under "reduced" CO2 emission, but not "business-as-usual" scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO2 emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under "reduced" emission scenarios.

  8. Effects of "Reduced" and "Business-As-Usual" CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Algal Territories of the Damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae).

    PubMed

    Bender, Dorothea; Champ, Connor Michael; Kline, David; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO2. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO2 levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 "reduced" and the A1FI "business-as-usual" CO2 emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under "reduced" CO2 emission, but not "business-as-usual" scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO2 emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under "reduced" emission scenarios. PMID:26121163

  9. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  10. Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Ying; Tao, Shu; Price, Oliver R; Shen, Huizhong; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-12-01

    SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction. PMID:25942589

  11. Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Ying; Tao, Shu; Price, Oliver R; Shen, Huizhong; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-12-01

    SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction.

  12. Impact of passenger car NOx emissions and NO2 fractions on urban NO2 pollution - Scenario analysis for the city of Antwerp, Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degraeuwe, Bart; Thunis, Philippe; Clappier, Alain; Weiss, Martin; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Vranckx, Stijn

    2016-02-01

    The annual NO2 concentrations in many European cities exceed the established air quality standard. This situation is mainly caused by Diesel cars whose NOx emissions are higher on the road than during type approval in the laboratory. Moreover, the fraction of NO2 in the NOx emissions of modern diesel cars appears to have increased as compared to previous models. In this paper, we assess 1) to which level the distance-specific NOx emissions of Diesel cars should be reduced to meet established air quality standards and 2) if it would be useful to introduce a complementary NO2 emissions limit. We develop a NO2 pollution model that accounts in an analysis of 9 emission scenarios for changes in both, the urban background NO2 concentrations and the local NO2 emissions at street level. We apply this model to the city of Antwerp, Belgium. The results suggest that a reduction in NOx emissions decreases the regional and urban NO2 background concentration; high NO2 fractions increase the ambient NO2 concentrations only in close spatial proximity to the emission source. In a busy access road to the city centre, the average NO2 concentration can be reduced by 23% if Diesel cars emitted 0.35 g NOx/km instead of the current 0.62 g NOx/km. Reductions of 45% are possible if the NOX emissions of Diesel cars decreased to the level of gasoline cars (0.03 g NOx/km). Our findings suggest that the Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) test procedure can solve the problem of NO2 exceedances in cities if it reduced the on-road NOx emissions of diesel cars to the permissible limit of 0.08 g/km. The implementation of a complementary NO2 emissions limit may then become superfluous. If Diesel cars continue to exceed by several factors their NOx emissions limit on the road, a shift of the vehicle fleet to gasoline cars may be necessary to solve persisting air quality problems.

  13. Patterns in CH4 and CO2 concentrations across boreal rivers: Major drivers and implications for fluvial greenhouse emissions under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Campeau, Audrey; Del Giorgio, Paul A

    2014-04-01

    It is now widely accepted that boreal rivers and streams are regionally significant sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), yet their role as methane (CH4) emitters, as well as the sensitivity of these greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to climate change, are still largely undefined. In this study, we explore the large-scale patterns of fluvial CO2 and CH4 partial pressure (pCO2 , pCH4) and gas exchange (k) relative to a set of key, climate-sensitive river variables across 46 streams and rivers in two distinct boreal landscapes of Northern Québec. We use the resulting models to determine the direction and magnitude of C-gas emissions from these boreal fluvial networks under scenarios of climate change. River pCO2 and pCH4 were positively correlated, although the latter was two orders of magnitude more variable. We provide evidence that in-stream metabolism strongly influences the dynamics of surface water pCO2 and pCH4 , but whereas pCO2 is not influenced by temperature in the surveyed streams and rivers, pCH4 appears to be strongly temperature-dependent. The major predictors of ambient gas concentrations and exchange were water temperature, velocity, and DOC, and the resulting models indicate that total GHG emissions (C-CO2 equivalent) from the entire network may increase between by 13 to 68% under plausible scenarios of climate change over the next 50 years. These predicted increases in fluvial GHG emissions are mostly driven by a steep increase in the contribution of CH4 (from 36 to over 50% of total CO2 -equivalents). The current role of boreal fluvial networks as major landscape sources of C is thus likely to expand, mainly driven by large increases in fluvial CH4 emissions.

  14. Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; Cionni, I.; Lamarque, J. F.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bodeker, G. E.; Charlton-Perez, A. J.; Frith, S. M.; Gettelman, A.; Kinnison, D. E.; Nakamura, T.; Oman, L. D.; Pawson, S.; Yamashita, Y.

    2010-08-01

    To understand how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may affect future stratospheric ozone, 21st century projections from four chemistry-climate models are examined for their dependence on six different GHG scenarios. Compared to higher GHG emissions, lower emissions result in smaller increases in tropical upwelling with resultant smaller reductions in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and less severe stratospheric cooling with resultant smaller increases in upper stratospheric ozone globally. Increases in reactive nitrogen and hydrogen that lead to additional chemical ozone destruction mainly play a role in scenarios with higher GHG emissions. Differences among the six GHG scenarios are found to be largest over northern midlatitudes (˜20 DU by 2100) and in the Arctic (˜40 DU by 2100) with divergence mainly in the second half of the 21st century. The uncertainty in the return of stratospheric column ozone to 1980 values arising from different GHG scenarios is comparable to or less than the uncertainty that arises from model differences in the larger set of 17 CCMVal-2 SRES A1B simulations. The results suggest that effects of GHG emissions on future stratospheric ozone should be considered in climate change mitigation policy and ozone projections should be assessed under more than a single GHG scenario.

  15. Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenario, climate projection, and ecosystem simulation using the ISI-MIP result

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishina, K.; Ito, A.; Falloon, P.; Friend, A. D.; Beerling, D. J.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Kahana, R.; Kato, E.; Lucht, W.; Lomas, M.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Warszawaski, L.; Yokohata, T.

    2014-10-01

    Changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVM) obtained from an Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project study were examined. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCM) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. In the end of simulation period, the changes from the year of 2000 in all three variables considerably varied from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC, and SOC projections, GVMs dominate uncertainties (60 and 90%, respectively) rather than climate driving scenarios, i.e., RCPs and GCMs. These results suggested that we don't have still enough resolution among each RCP scenario to evaluate climate change impacts on ecosystem conditions in global terrestrial C cycling. In addition, we found that the contributions of each uncertainty source were spatio-temporally heterogeneous and differed among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division gets cooler (from ca. 80% in the equatorial division to 40% in the snow climatic division). To evaluate the effects of climate change on ecosystems with practical resolution in RCP scenarios, GVMs require further improvement to reduce the uncertainties in global C cycling as much as, if not more than, GCMs. Our study suggests that the improvement of GVMs is a priority for

  16. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

  17. NO sub x emissions: Recent CFFF (Coal Fired Flow Facility) results and estimates for MHD retrofit scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Crawford, L.W.; Attig, R.C.; Lynch, T.P.; Rasnake, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Subjects related to NO{sub x} formation and decomposition are discussed in this paper. An experimental and theoretical study of NO behavior in the radiant furnace of the Coal Fired Flow Facility is described. Calculations are presented on the necessary size of an MHD Retrofit plant, to ensure current and possible future NO{sub x} emission indices are satisfied. The possibility of using high stoichiometry in the MHD generator, then decreasing the stoichiometry in the radiant furnace to control NO{sub x} emissions, is considered, using the principle of fuel injection at the furnace entrance. 5 refs., 2 tabs.

  18. The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urban, Daniel W.; Sheffield, Justin; Lobell, David B.

    2015-04-01

    The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century.

  19. Non-variable TeV emission from the extended jet of a blazar in the stochastic acceleration scenario: the case of the hard TeV emission of 1ES 1101-232

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Dahai; Zeng, Houdun; Zhang, Li

    2012-08-01

    The detections of X-ray emission from the kiloparsec-scale jets of blazars and radio galaxies could imply the existence of high-energy electrons in these extended jets, and these electrons could produce high-energy emission through the inverse Compton (IC) process. In this paper, we study the non-variable hard TeV emission from a blazar. The multiband emission consists of two components: (i) the traditional synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) emission from the inner jet; (ii) the emission produced via SSC and IC scattering of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons (IC/CMB) and extragalactic background light (EBL) photons by relativistic electrons in the extended jet under the stochastic acceleration scenario. Such a model is applied to 1ES 1101-232. The results indicate the following. (i) The non-variable hard TeV emission of 1ES 1101-232, which is dominated by IC/CMB emission from the extended jet, can be reproduced well by using three characteristic values of the Doppler factor (δD = 5, 10 and 15) for the TeV-emitting region in the extended jet. (ii) In the cases of δD = 15 and 10, the physical parameters can achieve equipartition (or quasi-equipartition) between the relativistic electrons and the magnetic field. In contrast, the physical parameters largely deviate from equipartition for the case of δD = 5. Therefore, we conclude that the TeV emission region of 1ES 1101-232 in the extended jet should be moderately or highly beamed.

  20. The new ENSEMBLES E1 mitigation scenario for future climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Royer, J.-F.; Lowe, J.; Johns, T.; van Vuuren, D.; Stehfest, E.; Denoblet-Ducoudré, N.; Boucher, O.; Rognerud, B.; Huebener, H.

    2009-04-01

    Climate simulations with state-of-the-art earth-system models are required to study the potential impacts of climate change, and possible solutions for avoiding, or reducing, some of its undesirable consequences. Though several emission scenarios have been applied for the IPCC AR4 assessments, the differences in the SRES scenarios result mainly from varying degrees of globalization, the role of environmental and social policy, economic and population growth and the rate of technology development. It seems then necessary to consider also more stringent mitigation pathways which aim eventually to implement a climate mitigation policy. In particular it appears particularly useful to implement and analyse climate scenarios for stabilising the additional anthropogenic radiative forcing to that equivalent to a carbon dioxide concentration at around 450 ppm during the 22nd Century for attempting to match the European Union target of keeping global anthropogenic warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A new set of climate simulations over the 21st century with improved earth-system models has thus been designed by the European modelling groups participating to the European FP6 project ENSEMBLES, as a contribution to the second phase ("Stream 2") of the project. The set-up of the new simulations, though basically similar to that used in the CMIP3 simulations for the IPCC AR4, has been improved by taking into account land-use changes. The simulations cover the recent historical period (1860-2000) and are extended over the the 21st century by two scenarios based on the A1B development path. The A1B scenario has been chosen as the baseline scenario for the ENSEMBLES stream 2 simulations because the strong increase in emissions is consistent with real emissions growth, and in order provide overlap with earlier climate modelling work. Besides the standard A1B SRES scenario, a new stabilisation scenario has been developed so as to limit the long-term radiative forcing to

  1. Effect of Sea Breeze on Air Pollution in the Greater Athens Area. Part II: Analysis of Different Emission Scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossi, Paola; Thunis, Philippe; Martilli, Alberto; Clappier, Alain

    2000-04-01

    The Mediterranean Campaign of Photochemical Tracers-Transport and Chemical Evolution that took place in the greater Athens area from 20 August to 20 September 1994 has confirmed the role of sea-breeze circulation in photochemical smog episodes that had been suggested already by a number of experiments and numerical studies.The meteorological and photochemical modeling of this campaign were discussed in Part I. Part II focuses on the study of the 14 September photochemical smog event associated with a sea-breeze circulation. The objective of the study is to identify and to understand better the nonlinear processes that produce high ozone concentrations. In particular, the effect of land and sea breezes is investigated by isolating the effect of nighttime and daytime emissions on ozone concentrations. The same principle then is used to isolate the effect on ozone concentrations of the two main sources of emissions in the greater Athens area: the industrial area around Elefsis and the Athens urban area. Last, the buildup of ozone from one day to another is investigated.From this study, it comes out that ozone production in the Athens area is mainly a 1-day phenomenon. The increased values of photochemical pollutant (up to 130 ppb at ground level) reached during summertime late afternoons on mountain slopes to the north and northeast of the city are related mainly to the current-day emissions. Nevertheless, the recirculation of old pollutants can have an important effect on ozone concentrations in downtown Athens, the southern part of the peninsula, and over the sea, especially near Aigina Island.

  2. Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

    2016-01-01

    In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)—weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will

  3. O{sub 3} and stratospheric H{sub 2}O radiative forcing resulting from a supersonic jet transport emission scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, A.S.; Kinnison, D.E.; Penner, J.E.; Grant, K.E.; Tamaresis, J.; Connell, P.S.

    1996-01-01

    The tropospheric radiative forcing has been calculated for ozone and water vapor perturbations caused by a realistic High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft emission scenario. Atmospheric profiles of water vapor and ozone were obtained using the LLNL 2-D chemical-radiative-transport model (CRT) of the global troposphere and stratosphere. IR radiative forcing calculations were made with the LLNL correlated k-distribution radiative transfer model. UV-Visible-Near IR radiative forcing calculations were made with the LLNL two stream solar radiation model. For the case of water vapor the IR and Near IR radiative forcing was determined at five different latitudes and then averaged using an appropriate latitudinal average to obtain the global average value. Global average values of radiative forcing were approximately 1.2--2.6 10{sup {minus}3} W/m{sup 2}, depending on the background atmospheric water vapor profile. This result is consistent with prior published values for a similar aircraft scenario and supports the conclusion that the water vapor climate forcing effect is very small. The radiative forcing in the IR and UV-Visible spectral ranges, due to the ozone perturbation, was calculated for the globally averaged atmosphere. Global average values of the radiative forcing were 0.034 W/m{sup 2} for the UV-Visible spectral range and 0.006 W/m{sup 2} for the IR spectral range (0.04 W/m{sup 2} total). This result is also consistent with the range of published values obtained for a similar HSCT scenario. As was the case for water vapor, the ozone forcing is too small to be of major consequence.

  4. The impact of CO2 emission scenarios and nutrient enrichment on a common coral reef macroalga is modified by temporal effects.

    PubMed

    Bender, Dorothea; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2014-02-01

    Future coral reefs are expected to be subject to higher pCO2 and temperature due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Such global stressors are often paired with local stressors thereby potentially modifying the response of organisms. Benthic macroalgae are strong competitors to corals and are assumed to do well under future conditions. The present study aimed to assess the impact of past and future CO2 emission scenarios as well as nutrient enrichment on the growth, productivity, pigment, and tissue nutrient content of the common tropical brown alga Chnoospora implexa. Two experiments were conducted to assess the differential impacts of the manipulated conditions in winter and spring. Chnoospora implexa's growth rate averaged over winter and spring declined with increasing pCO2 and temperature. Furthermore, nutrient enrichment did not affect growth. Highest growth was observed under spring pre-industrial (PI) conditions, while slightly reduced growth was observed under winter A1FI ("business-as-usual") scenarios. Productivity was not a good proxy for growth, as net O2 flux increased under A1FI conditions. Nutrient enrichment, whilst not affecting growth, led to luxury nutrient uptake that was greater in winter than in spring. The findings suggest that in contrast with previous work, C. implexa is not likely to show enhanced growth under future conditions in isolation or in conjunction with nutrient enrichment. Instead, the results suggest that greatest growth rates for this species appear to be a feature of the PI past, with A1FI winter conditions leading to potential decreases in the abundance of this species from present day levels.

  5. Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, Aavudai; Srinivas, V. V.; Kumar, D. Nagesh; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2012-04-01

    A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R H in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R H is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R H are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R H is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

  6. Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishina, K.; Ito, A.; Falloon, P.; Friend, A. D.; Beerling, D. J.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Kahana, R.; Kato, E.; Lucht, W.; Lomas, M.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Warszawaski, L.; Yokohata, T.

    2015-07-01

    We examined the changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVMs) obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCMs) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (i.e., emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. At the end of the simulation period, changes from the year 2000 in all three variables varied considerably from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC and SOC projections, GVMs are the main influence on uncertainties (60 % and 90 %, respectively) rather than climate-driving scenarios (RCPs and GCMs). Moreover, the divergence of changes in vegetation carbon residence times is dominated by GVM uncertainty, particularly in the latter half of the 21st century. In addition, we found that the contribution of each uncertainty source is spatiotemporally heterogeneous and it differs among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division becomes cooler (from ca. 80 % in the equatorial division to 40 % in the snow division). Our results suggest that to assess climate change impacts on global ecosystem C cycling among each RCP scenario, the long-term C dynamics within the ecosystems (i.e., vegetation turnover and soil decomposition) are more critical factors than photosynthetic processes. The different trends in the

  7. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  8. 76 FR 39254 - Airworthiness Directives; Schweizer Aircraft Corporation (Schweizer) Model 269A, A-1, B, C, C-1...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-06

    ... Regulatory Policies and Procedures (44 FR 11034, February 26, 1979), (3) Will not affect intrastate aviation... Corporation (Schweizer) Model 269A, A-1, B, C, C-1, and TH-55 Series Helicopters AGENCY: Federal Aviation... reviewed Schweizer Service Bulletins No. B-295 for Model 269A, A-1, B, and C helicopters, and No....

  9. Trends of abiotic damage in forest ecosystems in Germany at regional scale under SRES A1B, B1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panferov, O.; Doering, C.; Sogachev, A.; Merklein, J.; Ahrends, B.

    2009-09-01

    Current climate projections indicate that the ongoing climate change may cause an increase of frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008), which can result in wide area abiotic and consequent biotic damage events (e.g. drought and following insect attacks) within forest ecosystems. The type and degree of damage depends not only on the strength of a primary driving force itself (e.g. wind speed) but also on complex interactions between combinations of effecting agents with above- and belowground forest structure characteristics. The present study investigates the projected trends of abiotic risks factors and their combinations on coniferous and deciduous forests during the 21st Century under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1. The downscaling of ECHAM5-MPIOM by the regional climate model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2° with daily time-steps is used for the analysis of future climate extremes and their combinations. With these input data the small-scale modeling with coupled process based sub-models (Jansen et al., 2008) was carried out for Solling region, (Central Germany) calculating the water and energy balance of spruce and beech forest ecosystems on cambisols and podzols with BROOK90 (Federer et al. 2003) and wind loading on trees with 3D ABL model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008). The risks of drought or wind damage for a certain forest stand result from combinations of soil water characteristics, static and gust wind loads, which in turn depend on current above- and belowground tree structure and on soil texture. The actual soil water content and forest structure depends on climate-soil-vegetation interactions in previous years. Therefore, differences of microclimatological conditions in the remaining stand after changes in forest structure are taken into account. Model outputs are aggregated to 30-years periods and compared to "present” conditions of 1971-2000. The results demonstrate an increment of abiotic risks

  10. Cocoa Intensification Scenarios and Their Predicted Impact on CO2 Emissions, Biodiversity Conservation, and Rural Livelihoods in the Guinea Rain Forest of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gockowski, Jim; Sonwa, Denis

    2011-08-01

    The Guinean rain forest (GRF) of West Africa, identified over 20 years ago as a global biodiversity hotspot, had reduced to 113,000 km2 at the start of the new millennium which was 18% of its original area. The principal driver of this environmental change has been the expansion of extensive smallholder agriculture. From 1988 to 2007, the area harvested in the GRF by smallholders of cocoa, cassava, and oil palm increased by 68,000 km2. Field results suggest a high potential for significantly increasing crop yields through increased application of seed-fertilizer technologies. Analyzing land-use change scenarios, it was estimated that had intensified cocoa technology, already developed in the 1960s, been pursued in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon that over 21,000 km2 of deforestation and forest degradation could have been avoided along with the emission of nearly 1.4 billion t of CO2. Addressing the low productivity of agriculture in the GRF should be one of the principal objectives of REDD climate mitigation programs.

  11. Cocoa intensification scenarios and their predicted impact on CO₂ emissions, biodiversity conservation, and rural livelihoods in the Guinea rain forest of West Africa.

    PubMed

    Gockowski, Jim; Sonwa, Denis

    2011-08-01

    The Guinean rain forest (GRF) of West Africa, identified over 20 years ago as a global biodiversity hotspot, had reduced to 113,000 km² at the start of the new millennium which was 18% of its original area. The principal driver of this environmental change has been the expansion of extensive smallholder agriculture. From 1988 to 2007, the area harvested in the GRF by smallholders of cocoa, cassava, and oil palm increased by 68,000 km². Field results suggest a high potential for significantly increasing crop yields through increased application of seed-fertilizer technologies. Analyzing land-use change scenarios, it was estimated that had intensified cocoa technology, already developed in the 1960s, been pursued in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon that over 21,000 km² of deforestation and forest degradation could have been avoided along with the emission of nearly 1.4 billion t of CO₂. Addressing the low productivity of agriculture in the GRF should be one of the principal objectives of REDD climate mitigation programs.

  12. Distribution of fluorescence decay times for 1-anilinonaphthalene-8-sulfonate in human oxyhemoglobin A1b solution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drazdou, A. S.; Sobchuk, A. N.; Syakhovich, V. E.; Bokut, O. S.; Kvasyuk, E. I.; Bushuk, B. A.; Bokut, S. B.

    2012-07-01

    We have studied complex formation between molecules of the fluorescent probe 1-anilinonaphthalene-8-sulfonate (1,8-ANS) and the major form (A1) and a minor form (Ab) of hemoglobin. The contribution of the longlived component f3 to the kinetic curves for fluorescence decay in HbA1b solutions is 0.021-0.036, which indicates a dramatic decrease (compared with HbA1) in the accessibility of the central cavity of HbA1b for binding 1,8-ANS. Disappearance of the long-lived component f3 in the fluorescence decay kinetics of 1,8-ANS in HbA1b solutions in the presence of inositol hexaphosphate (IHP) suggests that the regulatory region of HbA1b is completely inaccessible for interaction both with the negatively charged molecules of the probe and with natural regulators of the transport function for this form of the heme protein.

  13. 1a/1b subtype profiling of nonnucleoside polymerase inhibitors of hepatitis C virus.

    PubMed

    Nyanguile, Origène; Devogelaere, Benoit; Vijgen, Leen; Van den Broeck, Walter; Pauwels, Frederik; Cummings, Maxwell D; De Bondt, Hendrik L; Vos, Ann M; Berke, Jan M; Lenz, Oliver; Vandercruyssen, Geneviève; Vermeiren, Katrien; Mostmans, Wendy; Dehertogh, Pascale; Delouvroy, Frédéric; Vendeville, Sandrine; VanDyck, Koen; Dockx, Koen; Cleiren, Erna; Raboisson, Pierre; Simmen, Kenneth A; Fanning, Gregory C

    2010-03-01

    The RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (NS5B) of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an unusually attractive target for drug discovery since it contains five distinct drugable sites. The success of novel antiviral therapies will require nonnucleoside inhibitors to be active in at least patients infected with HCV of subtypes 1a and 1b. Therefore, the genotypic assessment of these agents against clinical isolates derived from genotype 1-infected patients is an important prerequisite for the selection of suitable candidates for clinical development. Here we report the 1a/1b subtype profiling of polymerase inhibitors that bind at each of the four known nonnucleoside binding sites. We show that inhibition of all of the clinical isolates tested is maintained, except for inhibitors that bind at the palm-1 binding site. Subtype coverage varies across chemotypes within this class of inhibitors, and inhibition of genotype 1a improves when hydrophobic contact with the polymerase is increased. We investigated if the polymorphism of the palm-1 binding site is the sole cause of the reduced susceptibility of subtype 1a to inhibition by 1,5-benzodiazepines by using reverse genetics, X-ray crystallography, and surface plasmon resonance studies. We showed Y415F to be a key determinant in conferring resistance on subtype 1a, with this effect being mediated through an inhibitor- and enzyme-bound water molecule. Binding studies revealed that the mechanism of subtype 1a resistance is faster dissociation of the inhibitor from the enzyme.

  14. 1a/1b Subtype Profiling of Nonnucleoside Polymerase Inhibitors of Hepatitis C Virus ▿

    PubMed Central

    Nyanguile, Origène; Devogelaere, Benoit; Vijgen, Leen; Van den Broeck, Walter; Pauwels, Frederik; Cummings, Maxwell D.; De Bondt, Hendrik L.; Vos, Ann M.; Berke, Jan M.; Lenz, Oliver; Vandercruyssen, Geneviève; Vermeiren, Katrien; Mostmans, Wendy; Dehertogh, Pascale; Delouvroy, Frédéric; Vendeville, Sandrine; VanDyck, Koen; Dockx, Koen; Cleiren, Erna; Raboisson, Pierre; Simmen, Kenneth A.; Fanning, Gregory C.

    2010-01-01

    The RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (NS5B) of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an unusually attractive target for drug discovery since it contains five distinct drugable sites. The success of novel antiviral therapies will require nonnucleoside inhibitors to be active in at least patients infected with HCV of subtypes 1a and 1b. Therefore, the genotypic assessment of these agents against clinical isolates derived from genotype 1-infected patients is an important prerequisite for the selection of suitable candidates for clinical development. Here we report the 1a/1b subtype profiling of polymerase inhibitors that bind at each of the four known nonnucleoside binding sites. We show that inhibition of all of the clinical isolates tested is maintained, except for inhibitors that bind at the palm-1 binding site. Subtype coverage varies across chemotypes within this class of inhibitors, and inhibition of genotype 1a improves when hydrophobic contact with the polymerase is increased. We investigated if the polymorphism of the palm-1 binding site is the sole cause of the reduced susceptibility of subtype 1a to inhibition by 1,5-benzodiazepines by using reverse genetics, X-ray crystallography, and surface plasmon resonance studies. We showed Y415F to be a key determinant in conferring resistance on subtype 1a, with this effect being mediated through an inhibitor- and enzyme-bound water molecule. Binding studies revealed that the mechanism of subtype 1a resistance is faster dissociation of the inhibitor from the enzyme. PMID:20071590

  15. Methodologies for Estimating Future Climate Change Scenarios of Surface Solar Radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swamy, A.

    2013-12-01

    A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study. In Case 1, SR is measured; in Case 2, SR is measured but sparse; and in Case 3, SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the large-scale information simulated by global climate models (GCM) to a local scale (measurements). In Case 2, SR is first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, then future scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3, SR is first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time-period using complete or sparse measured records of SR, from which SR at local scale is estimated. Finally, in Case 3 methodology, the future scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies. A lack of observed SR data, has hindered various climate change impact studies. So Case 3 methodology is elaborated using Support vector machine based downscaling. Future scenarios of SR were estimated monthly from simulations of the third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT).

  16. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  17. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  18. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  19. Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmittner, Andreas; Oschlies, Andreas; Matthews, H. Damon; Galbraith, Eric D.

    2008-03-01

    A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ˜1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ˜10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial

  20. Estimating future energy use and CO₂ emissions of the world's cities.

    PubMed

    Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

    2015-08-01

    This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables.

  1. 26 CFR 1.404(a)-5 - Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pension and annuity plans; limitations under... OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Pension, Profit-Sharing, Stock Bonus Plans, Etc. § 1.404(a)-5 Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B). (a)...

  2. Four climate change scenarios for the Indian summer monsoon by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobler, A.; Ahrens, B.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses projections of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, highlighting similarities to and differences from its driving model, the global atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM5/MPIOM. The ISM is quantified using the all-Indian monsoon rainfall (AIMR) index and two vertical wind shear indices. To investigate the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the ISM, four emission scenarios for the time period 1960-2100 (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1B, B1, and commitment) are considered. The COSMO-CLM simulations show significantly weakening ISM trends in all indices for emission scenarios A2, A1B, and B1. Parts of northwestern India are projected to face a decrease in the monsoon rainfall amount of over 70% within this century. For the wind shear indices, the projected decreases are mainly due to changes in the upper troposphere winds. The weakening of the dynamics in the COSMO-CLM is in agreement with the weakening in the driving ECHAM5/MPIOM model. The two models further agree in significantly positive trends of atmospheric water vapor contents and rain day intensities. However, ECHAM5/MPIOM shows no decrease in AIMR. The different AIMR trends in the two models are found to be due to different changes in the residence time of water in the atmosphere: In the COSMO-CLM projections, the residence time is more prolonged than in ECHAM5/MPIOM. This again is the consequence of a decrease in the number of depressions moving toward the northwestern parts of India.

  3. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration

  4. Scenario Generation Using Differential Scenario Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makino, Masayuki; Ohnishi, Atsushi

    A method of generating scenarios using differential scenaro information is presented. Behaviors of normal scenarios of similar purpose are quite similar each other, while actors and data in scenarios are different among these scenarios. We derive the differential information between them and apply the differential information to generate new alternative/exceptional scenarios. Our method will be illustrated with examples. This paper describes (1) a language for describing scenarios based on a simple case grammar of actions, (2) introduction of the differential scenario, and (3) method and examples of scenario generation using the differential scenario.

  5. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin.

    PubMed

    Segnalini, M; Bernabucci, U; Vitali, A; Nardone, A; Lacetera, N

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries. PMID:22850789

  6. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segnalini, M.; Bernabucci, U.; Vitali, A.; Nardone, A.; Lacetera, N.

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

  7. Model-based Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Remediation Measures on Metal Leaching from Soils Contaminated by Historic Smelter Emissions.

    PubMed

    Joris, Ingeborg; Bronders, Jan; van der Grift, Bas; Seuntjens, Piet

    2014-05-01

    A spatially distributed model for leaching of Cd from the unsaturated zone was developed for the Belgian-Dutch transnational Kempen region. The model uses as input land-use maps, atmospheric deposition data, and soil data and is part of a larger regional model that simulates transport of Cd in soil, groundwater, and surface water. A new method for deriving deposition from multiple sites was validated using soil data in different wind directions. Leaching was calculated for the period 1890 to 2010 using a reconstruction of metal loads in the region. The model was able to reproduce spatial patterns of concentrations in soil and groundwater and predicted the concentration in shallow groundwater adequately well for the purpose of evaluating management options. For 42% of the data points, measurements and calculations were within the same concentration class. The model was used for forecasting under a reference scenario, an autonomous development scenario including climate change, and a scenario with implementation of remediation measures. The impact of autonomous development (under the most extreme scenario of climatic change) amounted to an increase of 10% in cumulative Cd flux after 100 yr as compared with the reference scenario. The impact of remediation measures was mainly local and is less pronounced (i.e., only 3% change in cumulative flux at the regional scale). The integrated model served as a tool to assist in developing management strategies and prioritization of remediation of the wide-spread heavy metal contamination in the region. PMID:25602815

  8. Model-based Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Remediation Measures on Metal Leaching from Soils Contaminated by Historic Smelter Emissions.

    PubMed

    Joris, Ingeborg; Bronders, Jan; van der Grift, Bas; Seuntjens, Piet

    2014-05-01

    A spatially distributed model for leaching of Cd from the unsaturated zone was developed for the Belgian-Dutch transnational Kempen region. The model uses as input land-use maps, atmospheric deposition data, and soil data and is part of a larger regional model that simulates transport of Cd in soil, groundwater, and surface water. A new method for deriving deposition from multiple sites was validated using soil data in different wind directions. Leaching was calculated for the period 1890 to 2010 using a reconstruction of metal loads in the region. The model was able to reproduce spatial patterns of concentrations in soil and groundwater and predicted the concentration in shallow groundwater adequately well for the purpose of evaluating management options. For 42% of the data points, measurements and calculations were within the same concentration class. The model was used for forecasting under a reference scenario, an autonomous development scenario including climate change, and a scenario with implementation of remediation measures. The impact of autonomous development (under the most extreme scenario of climatic change) amounted to an increase of 10% in cumulative Cd flux after 100 yr as compared with the reference scenario. The impact of remediation measures was mainly local and is less pronounced (i.e., only 3% change in cumulative flux at the regional scale). The integrated model served as a tool to assist in developing management strategies and prioritization of remediation of the wide-spread heavy metal contamination in the region.

  9. Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

  10. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    PubMed

    Rao, Mathukumalli Srinivasa; Swathi, Pettem; Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha Rama; Rao, K V; Raju, B M K; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  11. Effects of Temperature on Heteromeric Kv11.1a/1b and Kv11.3 Channels.

    PubMed

    Mauerhöfer, Maike; Bauer, Christiane K

    2016-08-01

    Kv11.1 channels are crucial in cardiac physiology, and there is increasing evidence of physiological roles of different Kv11 channels outside the heart. The HERG (human Kv11.1a) channel has previously been shown to carry substantially more current at elevated temperatures, and we have now comparably investigated the temperature dependence of neuronal Kv11.3 channels and the more ubiquitous heteromeric Kv11.1a/1b channels. Transiently expressed rat Kv11 channels were studied at 21°C, 30°C, and 35°C. At near-physiological temperature, the maximal sustained outward current density was almost three times the mean value obtained at room temperature for Kv11.1a/1b, and increased by ∼150% for Kv11.3. For both channels, reduced inactivation contributed to the current increase at higher temperature. Elevated temperature moved Kv11.1a/1b isochronal activation curves to more negative potentials, but shifted the potential of half-maximal Kv11.3 channel activation to more depolarized values and reduced its voltage sensitivity. Thus, increased temperature stabilized the open state over the closed state of Kv11.1a/1b channels and exerted the opposite effect on Kv11.3 channel activation. Both Kv11 channels exhibited an overall high temperature sensitivity of most gating parameters, with remarkably high Q10 factors of ∼5 for the rate of Kv11.1a/1b activation. The Q10 factors for Kv11.3 gating were more uniform, but still higher for activation than for inactivation kinetics. The results demonstrate that characteristic differences between Kv11.1a/1b and Kv11.3 determined at room temperature do not necessarily apply to physiological conditions. The data provided here can aid in the design of models that will enhance our understanding of the role of Kv11 currents in excitable cells. PMID:27508435

  12. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories. PMID

  13. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories.

  14. Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia: An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B.

    PubMed

    Mihailović, D T; Drešković, N; Arsenić, I; Ćirić, V; Djurdjević, V; Mimić, G; Pap, I; Balaž, I

    2016-11-15

    We considered temporal and spatial variations to the thermal and moisture regimes of the most common RSGs (Reference Soil Groups) in Serbia under the A1B scenario for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to the 1961-1990 period. We utilized dynamically downscaled global climate simulations from the ECHAM5 model using the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model). We analysed the soil temperature and moisture time series using simple statistics and a Kolmogorov complexity (KC) analysis. The corresponding metrics were calculated for 150 sites. In the future, warmer and drier regimes can be expected for all RSGs in Serbia. The calculated soil temperature and moisture variations include increases in the mean annual soil temperature (up to 3.8°C) and decreases in the mean annual soil moisture (up to 11.3%). Based on the KC values, the soils in Serbia are classified with respect to climate change impacts as (1) less sensitive (Vertisols, Umbrisols and Dystric Cambisols) or (2) more sensitive (Chernozems, Eutric Cambisols and Planosols). PMID:27473773

  15. Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia: An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B.

    PubMed

    Mihailović, D T; Drešković, N; Arsenić, I; Ćirić, V; Djurdjević, V; Mimić, G; Pap, I; Balaž, I

    2016-11-15

    We considered temporal and spatial variations to the thermal and moisture regimes of the most common RSGs (Reference Soil Groups) in Serbia under the A1B scenario for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to the 1961-1990 period. We utilized dynamically downscaled global climate simulations from the ECHAM5 model using the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model). We analysed the soil temperature and moisture time series using simple statistics and a Kolmogorov complexity (KC) analysis. The corresponding metrics were calculated for 150 sites. In the future, warmer and drier regimes can be expected for all RSGs in Serbia. The calculated soil temperature and moisture variations include increases in the mean annual soil temperature (up to 3.8°C) and decreases in the mean annual soil moisture (up to 11.3%). Based on the KC values, the soils in Serbia are classified with respect to climate change impacts as (1) less sensitive (Vertisols, Umbrisols and Dystric Cambisols) or (2) more sensitive (Chernozems, Eutric Cambisols and Planosols).

  16. ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan.

    PubMed

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Semenov, Mikhail A; Nishimori, Motoki; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo

    2012-03-13

    We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981-2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile-quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081-2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.

  17. ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

    PubMed Central

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Nishimori, Motoki; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo

    2012-01-01

    We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981–2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile–quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081–2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan. PMID:22291226

  18. Hydrogen Pathways: Updated Cost, Well-to-Wheels Energy Use, and Emissions for the Current Technology Status of Ten Hydrogen Production, Delivery, and Distribution Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsden, T.; Ruth, M.; Diakov, V.; Laffen, M.; Timbario, T. A.

    2013-03-01

    This report describes a life-cycle assessment conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of 10 hydrogen production, delivery, dispensing, and use pathways that were evaluated for cost, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This evaluation updates and expands on a previous assessment of seven pathways conducted in 2009. This study summarizes key results, parameters, and sensitivities to those parameters for the 10 hydrogen pathways, reporting on the levelized cost of hydrogen in 2007 U.S. dollars as well as life-cycle well-to-wheels energy use and GHG emissions associated with the pathways.

  19. Dysregulated YAP1/TAZ and TGF-β signaling mediate hepatocarcinogenesis in Mob1a/1b-deficient mice.

    PubMed

    Nishio, Miki; Sugimachi, Keishi; Goto, Hiroki; Wang, Jia; Morikawa, Takumi; Miyachi, Yosuke; Takano, Yusuke; Hikasa, Hiroki; Itoh, Tohru; Suzuki, Satoshi O; Kurihara, Hiroki; Aishima, Shinichi; Leask, Andrew; Sasaki, Takehiko; Nakano, Toru; Nishina, Hiroshi; Nishikawa, Yuji; Sekido, Yoshitaka; Nakao, Kazuwa; Shin-Ya, Kazuo; Mimori, Koshi; Suzuki, Akira

    2016-01-01

    Mps One Binder Kinase Activator (MOB)1A/1B are core components of the Hippo pathway that coactivate large tumor suppressor homolog (LATS) kinases. Mob1a/1b double deficiency in mouse liver (LMob1DKO) results in hyperplasia of oval cells and immature cholangiocytes accompanied by inflammatory cell infiltration and fibrosis. More than half of mutant mice die within 3 wk of birth. All survivors eventually develop liver cancers, particularly combined hepatocellular and cholangiocarcinomas (cHC-CCs) and intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinomas (ICCs), and die by age 60 wk. Because this phenotype is the most severe among mutant mice lacking a Hippo signaling component, MOB1A/1B constitute the critical hub of Hippo signaling in mammalian liver. LMob1DKO liver cells show hyperproliferation, increased cell saturation density, hepatocyte dedifferentiation, enhanced epithelial-mesenchymal transition and cell migration, and elevated transforming growth factor beta(TGF-β)2/3 production. These changes are strongly dependent on Yes-Associated Protein-1 (Yap1) and partially dependent on PDZ-binding motif (Taz) and Tgfbr2, but independent of connective tissue growth factor (Ctgf). In human liver cancers, YAP1 activation is frequent in cHC-CCs and ICCs and correlates with SMAD family member 2 activation. Drug screening revealed that antiparasitic macrocyclic lactones inhibit YAP1 activation in vitro and in vivo. Targeting YAP1/TAZ with these drugs in combination with inhibition of the TGF-β pathway may be effective treatment for cHC-CCs and ICCs.

  20. Dysregulated YAP1/TAZ and TGF-β signaling mediate hepatocarcinogenesis in Mob1a/1b-deficient mice

    PubMed Central

    Nishio, Miki; Sugimachi, Keishi; Goto, Hiroki; Wang, Jia; Morikawa, Takumi; Miyachi, Yosuke; Takano, Yusuke; Hikasa, Hiroki; Itoh, Tohru; Suzuki, Satoshi O.; Kurihara, Hiroki; Aishima, Shinichi; Leask, Andrew; Sasaki, Takehiko; Nakano, Toru; Nishina, Hiroshi; Nishikawa, Yuji; Sekido, Yoshitaka; Nakao, Kazuwa; Shin-ya, Kazuo; Mimori, Koshi; Suzuki, Akira

    2016-01-01

    Mps One Binder Kinase Activator (MOB)1A/1B are core components of the Hippo pathway that coactivate large tumor suppressor homolog (LATS) kinases. Mob1a/1b double deficiency in mouse liver (LMob1DKO) results in hyperplasia of oval cells and immature cholangiocytes accompanied by inflammatory cell infiltration and fibrosis. More than half of mutant mice die within 3 wk of birth. All survivors eventually develop liver cancers, particularly combined hepatocellular and cholangiocarcinomas (cHC-CCs) and intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinomas (ICCs), and die by age 60 wk. Because this phenotype is the most severe among mutant mice lacking a Hippo signaling component, MOB1A/1B constitute the critical hub of Hippo signaling in mammalian liver. LMob1DKO liver cells show hyperproliferation, increased cell saturation density, hepatocyte dedifferentiation, enhanced epithelial–mesenchymal transition and cell migration, and elevated transforming growth factor beta(TGF-β)2/3 production. These changes are strongly dependent on Yes-Associated Protein-1 (Yap1) and partially dependent on PDZ-binding motif (Taz) and Tgfbr2, but independent of connective tissue growth factor (Ctgf). In human liver cancers, YAP1 activation is frequent in cHC-CCs and ICCs and correlates with SMAD family member 2 activation. Drug screening revealed that antiparasitic macrocyclic lactones inhibit YAP1 activation in vitro and in vivo. Targeting YAP1/TAZ with these drugs in combination with inhibition of the TGF-β pathway may be effective treatment for cHC-CCs and ICCs. PMID:26699479

  1. Optical Spectroscopy of SDSS J004054.65-0915268: Three Possible Scenarios for the Classification. A z ˜ 5 BL Lacertae, a Blue FSRQ, or a Weak Emission Line Quasar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landoni, M.; Zanutta, A.; Bianco, A.; Tavecchio, F.; Bonnoli, G.; Ghisellini, G.

    2016-02-01

    The haunt of high-redshift BL Lacerate objects is day by day more compelling to firmly understand their intrinsic nature and evolution. SDSS J004054.65-0915268 is, at the moment, one of the most distant BL Lac candidates, at z ˜ 5. We present a new optical-near-IR spectrum obtained with ALFOSC-NOT with a new, custom designed dispersive grating aimed to detect broad emission lines that could disprove this classification. In the obtained spectra, we do not detect any emission features and we provide an upper limit to the luminosity of the C iv broad emission line. Therefore, the nature of the object is then discussed, building the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) and fitting it with three different models. Our fits, based on SED modeling with different possible scenarios, cannot rule out the possibility that this source is indeed a BL Lac object, though the absence of optical variability and the lack of strong radio flux seem to suggest that the observed optical emission originates from a thermalized accretion disk.

  2. Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model: California's Carbon Challenge Phase II, Volume II

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel; Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to the present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and sequestration was

  3. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  4. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez, B.; Sánchez, O.; Monterroso, A.; Rosales, G.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning of the research work for the Fourth National Communication, to ensure that those criteria were fulfilled. Specifically, a set of climate change scenarios was generated using the outputs for temperature and precipitation of three General Circulation Models (GCMs): ECHAM5, HADGEM1 y GFDL CM2.0, for the horizons 2030 and 2050, and for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, B2 y B1. Those scenarios can be found in our web page in a low spatial resolution (2.5 º x 2.5º), and with high resolution (5’ x 5’). To assess the potential impacts on rainfed maize agriculture, the changes of the suitability of different regions in the country were evaluated, considering maize temperature and precipitation requirements at its different stages of development. Four categories of suitability (high, moderated, marginal, and no suitable) were characterized for current and future climatic conditions. Using the A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the three GCMs and the horizon 2050, results showed that around 67% of

  5. Calculation of Probabilistic Climate Change Scenarios for Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, A. M.; Weigel, A. P.; Liniger, M. A.; Buser, C.; Appenzeller, C.

    2010-09-01

    Global warming and corresponding climatic changes are expected to continue well into the 21st century leaving major impacts on society and ecosystems. The assessment of different future climate pathways for a specific region or even location, however, is a highly challenging task due to the cascade of uncertainties which are still inherent to any projection of future climate, ranging from emission uncertainties over model uncertainties down to uncertainties arising from natural fluctuations. Moreover, to be of use for the development of potential adaptation measures over complex terrains such as the Alps, model projections of the future climate using regional climate models (RCMs) with a detailed topography are essential. To date, our knowledge about climatic change in the Alpine region mainly stems from the PRUDENCE RCM projections at 50 km horizontal resolution, which were run in timeslice mode from 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. Climate change information for the first half of the century was obtained using a pattern-scaling approach. Here, we calculate climate change scenarios of temperature and precipitation over Switzerland from a new generation of RCM simulations (driven by general circulation models, GCMs) provided by the European project FP6-ENSEMBLES. The RCMs (at 25 km horizontal resolution) were run in transient mode over the period 1950 to 2050 based on the A1B emission scenario. Climate change over Switzerland is assessed for the period 2016-45 with respect to 1976-2005 in seasonal aggregation over three different regions north and south of the Alps. The scenarios are constructed in a probabilistic and Bayesian multi-model framework to reflect model uncertainties, at least to some extent. Amongst others, this Bayesian algorithm requires the specification of an informative prior for the range of possible projection errors. This prior is constructed by separately estimating the relative contributions of GCM uncertainty, RCM uncertainty and internal

  6. Calculation of Probabilistic Climate Change Scenarios for Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas M.; Weigel, Andreas P.; Liniger, Mark A.; Buser, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

    2010-05-01

    Global warming and corresponding climatic changes are expected to continue well into the 21st century leaving major impacts on society and ecosystems. The assessment of different future climate pathways, however, is a highly challenging task due to the cascade of uncertainties which are still inherent to any projection of future climate, ranging from emission uncertainties over model uncertainties down to uncertainties arising from natural fluctuations. Moreover, to be of use for the development of potential adaptation measures over complex terrains such as the Alps, model projections of the future climate using regional climate models (RCMs) with a detailed topography are essential. To date, our knowledge about climatic change in the Alpine region mainly stems from RCM projections at 50 km horizontal resolution, as obtained from the international PRUDENCE project. Yet, from an impact modeler's perspective it would be desirable to acquire climate change information at spatial scales which are higher resolved. Here, we calculate climate change scenarios of temperature and precipitation over Switzerland from a new generation of RCM simulations (driven by general circulation models, GCMs) provided by the European project FP6-ENSEMBLES. The RCMs (at 25 km horizontal resolution) were run in transient mode over the period 1950 to 2050 based on the A1B emission scenario. Climate change over Switzerland is assessed for the period 2021-50 as seasonal means over four different regions including an Alpine area. The scenarios are derived in a probabilistic multi-model approach quantifying model uncertainties. The different model chains are combined in a Bayesian model framework. The underlying assumptions of this Bayesian approach will be discussed, and the role of internal climate variability will be quantified. With respect to the reference period 1961-90, the majority of RCMs indicate an increase in temperature over Switzerland within the range of plus 0.5 - 3.0 °C. For

  7. Vibrational energies for the X1A1, A1B1, and B1A1 states of SiH2/SiD2 and related transition probabilities based on global potential energy surfaces.

    PubMed

    Tokue, Ikuo; Yamasaki, Katsuyoshi; Nanbu, Shinkoh

    2005-04-01

    Transition probabilities were evaluated for the X(1)A(1)-A(1)B(1) and A(1)B(1)-B(1)A(1) systems of SiH(2) and SiD(2) to analyze the X-->A-->B photoexcitation. The Franck-Condon factors (FCFs) and Einstein's B coefficients were computed by quantum vibrational calculations using the three-dimensional potential energy surfaces (PESs) of the SiH(2)(X(1)A(1),A(1)B(1),B(1)A(1)) electronic states and the electronic transition moments for the X-A, X-B, and A-B system. The global PESs were determined by the multireference configuration interaction calculations with the Davidson correction and the interpolant moving least-squares method combined with the Shepard interpolation. The obtained FCFs for the X-A and A-B systems exhibit that the bending mode is strongly enhanced in the excitation since the equilibrium bond angle greatly varies with the three states; the barrier to linearity is evaluated to be 21,900 cm(-1) for the X state, 6400 cm(-1) for the A state, and 230-240 cm(-1) for the B state. The theoretical lifetimes for the pure bending levels of the A and B states were calculated from the fluorescence decay rates for the A-X, B-A, and B-X emissions.

  8. Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Seungwoo; Graham, Wendy D.; Hwang, Syewoon; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2016-08-01

    Projecting water deficit under various possible future climate scenarios depends on the choice of general circulation model (GCM), reference evapotranspiration (ET0) estimation method, and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectory. The relative contribution of each of these factors must be evaluated in order to choose an appropriate ensemble of future scenarios for water resources planning. In this study variance-based global sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo filtering were used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of projected changes in precipitation (P), ET0, and water deficit (defined here as P-ET0) to choice of GCM, ET0 estimation method, and RCP trajectory over the continental United States (US) for two distinct future periods: 2030-2060 (future period 1) and 2070-2100 (future period 2). A total of 9 GCMs, 10 ET0 methods, and 3 RCP trajectories were used to quantify the range of future projections and estimate the relative sensitivity of future projections to each of these factors. In general, for all regions of the continental US, changes in future precipitation are most sensitive to the choice of GCM, while changes in future ET0 are most sensitive to the choice of ET0 estimation method. For changes in future water deficit, the choice of GCM is the most influential factor in the cool season (December-March), and the choice of ET0 estimation method is most important in the warm season (May-October) for all regions except the Southeast US, where GCMs and ET0 have approximately equal influence throughout most of the year. Although the choice of RCP trajectory is generally less important than the choice of GCM or ET0 method, the impact of RCP trajectory increases in future period 2 over future period 1 for all factors. Monte Carlo filtering results indicate that particular GCMs and ET0 methods drive the projection of wetter or drier future conditions much more than RCP trajectory; however, the set of GCMs and ET0 methods that produce wetter or

  9. DISENTANGLING HADRONIC AND LEPTONIC CASCADE SCENARIOS FROM THE VERY-HIGH-ENERGY GAMMA-RAY EMISSION OF DISTANT HARD-SPECTRUM BLAZARS

    SciTech Connect

    Takami, Hajime; Murase, Kohta; Dermer, Charles D. E-mail: murase@ias.edu

    2013-07-10

    Recent data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope have revealed about a dozen distant hard-spectrum blazars that have very-high-energy (VHE; {approx}> 100 GeV) photons associated with them, but most of them have not yet been detected by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. Most of these high-energy gamma-ray spectra, like those of other extreme high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects, can be well explained either by gamma rays emitted at the source or by cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, as we show specifically for KUV 00311-1938. We consider the prospects for detection of the VHE sources by the planned Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) and show how it can distinguish the two scenarios by measuring the integrated flux above {approx}500 GeV (depending on source redshift) for several luminous sources with z {approx}< 1 in the sample. Strong evidence for the origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays could be obtained from VHE observations with CTA. Depending on redshift, if the often quoted redshift of KUV 00311-1938 (z = 0.61) is believed, then preliminary H.E.S.S. data favor cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. Accurate redshift measurements of hard-spectrum blazars are essential for this study.

  10. Climate Change Projections for Sri Lanka for the mid-twentieth Century from CMIP5 Simulations under a High Emissions Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubair, L.; Agalawatte, P.

    2014-12-01

    Under the Agricultural Model Inter-Comparison program (AgMIP), climate change projections for Sri Lanka were undertaken from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) archives for five locations covering Sri Lanka. These datasets were first quality checked after removing questionable data entries. The gaps in data were filled using AgMERRA data set for the specific location developed by Alex Ruane and Sonali McDermid at NASA- GISS after applying the necessary bias corrections. Future climate projections for 2040- 2070 are based on projections for high Carbon Dioxide emissions (RCP8.5). Analysis was undertaken on the outputs of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs). Observed climate datasets (for the period 1980- 2010) for each location were used to generate downscaled future predictions. Future projections for maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall were generated while holding solar radiation constant and changing the CO2 value up to 499 ppm. Results for 5 GCMs that simulate the monsoon region best were then selected for further analysis. These are CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-MR. All 20 GCM outputs predicted that both minimum and maximum temperature shall rise by around 2 ⁰C throughout the year. This result is consistent across all 5 locations and the uncertainty associated with this prediction was observed to be low compared to that of rainfall. In the case of the rainfall, majority (80- 95%) of GCMs predicted an increment in the annual rainfall by around 0.5 mm/day. Rainfall during September- October- November was predicted to have a high increment (around 2- 7 mm/day) and during February- March a decrement of around 1- 2 mm/day was predicted. The uncertainty of this prediction based on outputs of all 20 GCMs were observed to be high. These results are consistent with the Fourth Assessment Report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change.

  11. HCV inter-subtype 1a/1b recombinant detected by complete-genome next-generation sequencing.

    PubMed

    Gaspareto, Karine Vieira; Ribeiro, Roberto Marques; de Mello Malta, Fernanda; Gomes-Gouvêa, Michele Soares; Muto, Nair Hideko; Mendes-Correa, Maria Cassia; Rozanski, Andrei; Carrilho, Flair José; Sabino, Ester Cerdeira; Pinho, João Renato Rebello

    2016-08-01

    Next-generation sequencing (NGS) provides a practical approach to HCV complete-genome sequencing, detecting low-frequency variants and allowing analysis of viral genetic diversity (quasispecies) in the sample, and so far, it is very useful for identifying preexisting drug-resistant mutants and emerging escape mutations, as well as detecting viral recombinants containing genomic regions from different genotypes and subtypes. The aim of this study was to analyze the complete coding region of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 (subtypes 1a and 1b) from patients with chronic infection who were direct-acting antiviral (DAA) naïve. Next-generation sequencing (Ion Torrent™ PGM) was used to determine the sequence of the complete coding region of 100 HCV-monoinfected DAA-naïve patients (51 and 49 subtypes 1a and 1b, respectively). We report the first description of nearly complete HCV genome sequences of subtype 1a and 1b isolates from a large population of Brazilian patients with chronic hepatitis C, and HCV-1a grouped in two different clades. Using this methodology, an inter-subtype 1a/1b recombinant was identified in this study. PMID:27194536

  12. HLA-B17 and the HLA-A1, B17 haplotype in acute myelogenous leukemia.

    PubMed

    Heise, E; Parrish, E; Cooper, R

    1979-08-01

    Seventy-nine Caucasians with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) were genotyped to determine whether AML, the induction of remission or patient survival were associated with particular HLA phenotypes or haplotypes. HLA-B17 and B27 were increased in AML patients over 40 years of age. Combined analysis of four independent studies indicates that HLA-B17 is significantly but weakly associated with AML, relative risk = 1.48 (.01 less than P less than .025). The A1, B17 and Aw24, Bw35 haplotypes occurred more frequently in the AML group as compared to racial and geographic controls (uncorrected P = 0.0068 and 0.0098, respectively Fisher's Exact Test). Induction of remission occurred less frequently in patients with the B17 phenotype as compared to patients lacking this antigen (P = 0.047). Patient survival was associated with remission status (P = 0.002) but was not significantly associated with particular HLA phenotypes or haplotypes. These results indicate that a gene or genes in the HLA-B region of the major histocompatibility complex can influence susceptibility to AML and also the response to chemotherapy.

  13. A propeller scenario for the gamma-ray emission of low-mass X-ray binaries: the case of XSS J12270-4859

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papitto, A.; Torres, D. F.; Li, Jian

    2014-03-01

    XSS J12270-4859 is the only low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) with a proposed persistent gamma-ray counterpart in the Fermi-Large Area Telescope domain, 2FGL 1227.7-4853. Here, we present the results of the analysis of recent INTEGRAL observations, aimed at assessing the long-term variability of the hard X-ray emission, and thus the stability of the accretion state. We confirm that the source behaves as a persistent hard X-ray emitter between 2003 and 2012. We propose that XSS J12270-4859 hosts a neutron star in a propeller state, a state we investigate in detail, developing a theoretical model to reproduce the associated X-ray and gamma-ray properties. This model can be understood as being of a more general nature, representing a viable alternative by which LMXBs can appear as gamma-ray sources. In particular, this may apply to the case of millisecond pulsars performing a transition from a state powered by the rotation of their magnetic field to a state powered by matter infall, such as that recently observed from the transitional pulsar PSR J1023+0038. While the surface magnetic field of a typical neutron star (NS) in an LMXB is lower by more than four orders of magnitude than the much more intense fields of neutron stars accompanying high-mass binaries, the radius at which the matter inflow is truncated in an NS-LMXB system is much smaller. The magnetic field at the magnetospheric interface is then orders of magnitude larger at this interface, and as consequence, so is the power to accelerate electrons. We demonstrate that the cooling of the accelerated electron population takes place mainly through synchrotron interaction with the magnetic field permeating the interface, and through inverse Compton losses due to the interaction between the electrons and the synchrotron photons they emit. We found that self-synchrotron Compton processes can explain the high-energy phenomenology of XSS J12270-4859.

  14. Fumonisin toxicity in a transgenic mouse model lacking the mdr1a/1b P-glycoprotein genes.

    PubMed

    Sharma; Bhandari; Tsunoda; Riley; Voss; Meredith

    2000-03-01

    The toxicity of fumonisin B(1) (FB(1)) was investigated in male mdr1a/1b double knockout (MDRK) mice, lacking the drug-transporting P-glycoproteins. These transgenic animals are deficient in their blood:brain barrier and accumulate different drugs in brain and other tissues. The MDRK and their wild-type counterparts, FVB mice, were injected subcutaneously with 2.25 mg/kg per day of FB(1) for 5 days and sampled one day after the last treatment in a protocol that has resulted in marked hepatic and renal damage in other strains. FB(1) caused liver enlargement in both FVB and MDRK. Hematological parameters were not affected in either strain. Plasma levels of alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase, measures of liver damage, were increased by FB(1) in both FVB and MDRK mice. Histopathological evaluation of liver corroborated this finding. Kidney lesions were induced by FB(1) in both types of mice. Concentrations of free sphingosine and sphinganine increased in liver and kidney of both strains after the FB(1) treatment, although the increase in liver sphingoid bases was half as much in MDRK as compared to FVB. The levels of sphinganine-containing complex sphingolipids were increased in kidney. The levels of sphingosine-containing complex sphingolipids in kidney were unaffected by FB(1) treatment but were significantly lower in control MDRK than in FVB mice. The levels of neurotransmitters and their metabolites were similarly affected in both strains by FB(1), suggesting no influence of disrupted blood:brain barrier on FB(1)-induced neurotoxicity. In both strains, the liver mRNA for tumor necrosis factor alpha was increased; however, the increase was statistically significant only in FVB. It was apparent that mice deficient in P-glycoprotein do not exhibit greater sensitivity to FB(1), the cellular or brain transport of FB(1) appears to be independent of this multidrug transporting system.

  15. Susceptibilities of Genotype 1a, 1b, and 3 Hepatitis C Virus Variants to the NS5A Inhibitor Elbasvir

    PubMed Central

    Curry, Stephanie; McMonagle, Patricia; Yeh, Wendy W.; Ludmerer, Steven W.; Jumes, Patricia A.; Marshall, William L.; Kong, Stephanie; Ingravallo, Paul; Black, Stuart; Pak, Irene; DiNubile, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    Elbasvir is an investigational NS5A inhibitor with in vitro activity against multiple HCV genotypes. Antiviral activity of elbasvir was measured in replicons derived from wild-type or resistant variants of genotypes 1a, 1b, and 3. The barrier to resistance was assessed by the number of resistant colonies selected by exposure to various elbasvir concentrations. In a phase 1b dose-escalating study, virologic responses were determined in 48 noncirrhotic adult men with chronic genotype 1 or 3 infections randomized to placebo or elbasvir from 5 to 50 mg (genotype 1) or 10 to 100 mg (genotype 3) once daily for 5 days. The NS5A gene was sequenced from plasma specimens obtained before, during, and after treatment. Elbasvir suppressed the emergence of resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in vitro in a dose-dependent manner. Variants selected by exposure to high elbasvir concentrations typically encoded multiple amino acid substitutions (most commonly involving loci 30, 31, and 93), conferring high-level elbasvir resistance. In the monotherapy study, patients with genotype 1b had greater reductions in HCV RNA levels than patients with genotype 1a at all elbasvir doses; responses in patients with genotype 3 were generally less pronounced than for genotype 1, particularly at lower elbasvir doses. M28T, Q30R, L31V, and Y93H in genotype 1a, L31V and Y93H in genotype 1b, and A30K, L31F, and Y93H in genotype 3 were the predominant RAVs selected by elbasvir monotherapy. Virologic findings in patients were consistent with the preclinical observations. NS5A-RAVs emerged most often at amino acid positions 28, 30, 31, and 93 in both the laboratory and clinical trial. (The MK-8742 P002 trial has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT01532973.) PMID:26303801

  16. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adloff, Fanny; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Jordà, Gabriel; Aznar, Roland; Déqué, Michel; Herrmann, Marine; Marcos, Marta; Dubois, Clotilde; Padorno, Elena; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique; Gomis, Damià

    2015-11-01

    The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air-sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961-2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001-2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air-sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070-2099 period compared to 1961-1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in

  17. Scenario development in China's electricity sector

    SciTech Connect

    Steenhof, P.A.; Fulton, W.

    2007-07-15

    The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.

  18. Haemocoel injection of PirA1B1 to Galleria mellonella larvae leads to disruption of the haemocyte immune functions

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Gongqing; Yi, Yunhong

    2016-01-01

    The bacterium Photorhabdus luminescens produces a number of insecticidal proteins to kill its larval prey. In this study, we cloned the gene coding for a binary toxin PirA1B1 and purified the recombinant protein using affinity chromatography combined with desalination technology. Furthermore, the cytotoxicity of the recombinant protein against the haemocytes of Galleria mellonella larvae was investigated. We found that the protein had haemocoel insecticidal activity against G. mellonella with an LD50 of 131.5 ng/larva. Intrahaemocoelic injection of PirA1B1 into G. mellonella resulted in significant decreases in haemocyte number and phagocytic ability. In in vitro experiments, PirA1B1 inhibited the spreading behaviour of the haemocytes of G. mellonella larvae and even caused haemocyte degeneration. Fluorescence microscope analysis and visualization of haemocyte F-actin stained with phalloidin-FITC showed that the PirA1B1 toxin disrupted the organization of the haemocyte cytoskeleton. Our results demonstrated that the PirA1B1 toxin disarmed the insect cellular immune system. PMID:27734915

  19. Attribution of future US ozone pollution to regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport, and model deficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, H.; Liang, X.-Z.; Lei, H.; Wuebbles, D. J.

    2014-10-01

    A regional chemical transport model (CTM) is used to quantify the relative contributions of future US ozone pollution from regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and model deficiency. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, the representation of present-day US ozone pollution is notably improved. This nested system projects substantial surface ozone trends for 2050's: 6-10 ppbv decreases under the "clean" A1B scenario and ~15 ppbv increases under the "dirty" A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 20-50% in A1B and positive 20-40% in A1Fi, while LRT effects through chemical LBCs and climate changes account for respectively 15-50% and 10-30% in both scenarios. The projection uncertainty due to model biases is region dependent, ranging from -10 to 50%. It is shown that model biases of present-day simulations can propagate into future projections systematically but nonlinearly, and the accurate specification of LBCs is essential for US ozone projections.

  20. Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

    2013-12-01

    In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario

  1. Moon manned mission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Angelis, G.; Tripathi, R. K.; Wilson, J. W.; Clowdsley, M. S.; Nealy, J. E.; Badavi, F. F.

    An analysis is performed on the radiation environment found around and on the surface of the Moon, and applied to different possible lunar mission scenarios. An optimization technique has been used to obtain mission scenarios minimizing the astronaut radiation exposure and at the same time controlling the effect of shielding, in terms of mass addition and material choice, as a mission cost driver. The scenarios are evaluated from the point of view of radiation safety with the radiation protection quantities recommended for LEO scenarios.

  2. Assessing oral bioaccessibility of trace elements in soils under worst-case scenarios by automated in-line dynamic extraction as a front end to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Rosende, María; Magalhães, Luis M; Segundo, Marcela A; Miró, Manuel

    2014-09-01

    A novel biomimetic extraction procedure that allows for the in-line handing of ≥400 mg solid substrates is herein proposed for automatic ascertainment of trace element (TE) bioaccessibility in soils under worst-case conditions as per recommendations of ISO norms. A unified bioaccessibility/BARGE method (UBM)-like physiological-based extraction test is evaluated for the first time in a dynamic format for accurate assessment of in-vitro bioaccessibility of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in forest and residential-garden soils by on-line coupling of a hybrid flow set-up to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. Three biologically relevant operational extraction modes mimicking: (i) gastric juice extraction alone; (ii) saliva and gastric juice composite in unidirectional flow extraction format and (iii) saliva and gastric juice composite in a recirculation mode were thoroughly investigated. The extraction profiles of the three configurations using digestive fluids were proven to fit a first order reaction kinetic model for estimating the maximum TE bioaccessibility, that is, the actual worst-case scenario in human risk assessment protocols. A full factorial design, in which the sample amount (400-800 mg), the extractant flow rate (0.5-1.5 mL min(-1)) and the extraction temperature (27-37°C) were selected as variables for the multivariate optimization studies in order to obtain the maximum TE extractability. Two soils of varied physicochemical properties were analysed and no significant differences were found at the 0.05 significance level between the summation of leached concentrations of TE in gastric juice plus the residual fraction and the total concentration of the overall assayed metals determined by microwave digestion. These results showed the reliability and lack of bias (trueness) of the automatic biomimetic extraction approach using digestive juices.

  3. Development of North American emission inventories for air quality modeling under climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Jung-Hun Woo; Shan He; Efthimios Tagaris; Kuo-Jen Liao; Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon; Praveen Amar; Armistead G. Russell

    2008-11-15

    An approach that integrates the impact of both the current regulations and the longer-term national and global trends is developed to construct an emissions inventory (EI) for North America for the mid-century in support of a regional modeling study of ozone and particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 {mu}m (PM2.5). Because the time horizon of such a distant projection is beyond that of EIs used in typical modeling studies, it is necessary to identify a practical approach that allows the emission projections to account for emission controls and climatic and energy-use changes. However, a technical challenge arises because this requires integration of various different types of information with which emissions from human activities are associated. The method developed here is based on data availability, spatiotemporal coverage and resolution, and future-scenario consistency (i.e., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B), and consists of two major steps: (1) near-future EI projection (to the year 2020), and (2) longer-term EI projection (to mid-century). For the United States, the year-2050 emissions for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), PM2.5, anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia are projected to change by 55, 55, 30, 40, and 20%, respectively, compared with 2001. NOx and SO{sub 2} Emission changes are very similar in total amount but different in sectoral contribution. The projected emission trends for Canada and Mexico differ considerably. After taking into account the modeled climate changes, biogenic VOC emission increases from three countries overwhelm the decreases in anthropogenic VOC emissions, leading to a net small increase (2%) in overall VOC emissions. 16 refs., 8 figs., 4 tabs.

  4. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandri, A.; Fogli, P. G.; Vichi, M.; Zeng, N.

    2012-07-01

    Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. We analyze strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. Above approach is applied to investigate difference in strengthening of hydrological cycle in two scenario centennial simulations performed with an Earth System model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B, we considered a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Quite unexpectedly, mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen hydrological cycle more than SRES A1B till around 2070. Our analysis shows that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to the abated aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. In contrast, last decades of 21st century (21C) show marked increase of global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout all 21C, so that two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of hydrological cycle in mid and end 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves larger increase of global precipitation in the last

  5. Projection of Changes in Regional Climate and Air Quality in the Great Lakes Basin between 2000 and 2050 for the RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario using the GEM-AQ Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lupu, A.; Semeniuk, K.; McConnell, J. C.; Kaminski, J. W.; Toyota, K.; Neary, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality (GEM-AQ) model was run in global and limited area model (LAM) modes for the baseline year 2000 and one future year, 2050, on three different horizontal grids of increasing resolution from global (1.5°) to North American (LAM, 0.45°) to Ontario regional scale (LAM, 0.15°). For the future simulation we used the high greenhouse emissions scenario RCP8.5. Boundary conditions for the LAM runs were taken from the coarser resolution runs. All simulations had 54 vertical sigma-pressure hybrid levels from the ground to the stratopause (˜50 km), which should give a good representation of ozone injection to the troposphere from the stratosphere. The model uses the interactive land surface scheme ISBA. Sea surface and lake temperatures are prescribed, but ice cover is partially interactive based on prescribed fields. A lake model, FLAKE, was coupled to GEM-AQ in order to capture the impacts of the Great Lakes on the meteorology when the model is run at high resolution. For the Ontario regional simulation the interactive lake model allowed for self-consistent water temperatures and moisture fluxes. The simulation for the year 2000 shows that the model is able to reproduce the observed monthly surface temperatures across the US. The monthly surface ozone is reproduced at the level of detail of most other air quality models with year 2000 weather as opposed to a free run forced by SSTs. Our year 2050 simulation shows that ozone levels during the summer throughout most of Ontario and Canada will increase. Regions south of the latitude of Lake Superior will generally see decreased levels of summer (JJA) ozone, except for around large urban areas such as Toronto, Chicago and Montreal. However, NOx levels will decrease during the summer, reflecting decreased emissions. Ozone levels in the US will generally improve. Other indices rather than simple averages yield a different perspective. If the MDA8 ozone metric and NO2 one-hour 98th

  6. The hydroclimatological response to global warming based on the dynamically downscaled climate change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Felippo

    2010-05-01

    Given the discernable evidences of climate changes due to human activity, there is a growing demand for the reliable climate change scenario in response to future emission forcing. One of the most significant impacts of climate changes can be that on the hydrological process. Changes in the seasonality and increase in the low and high rainfall extremes can severely influence the water balance of river basin, with serious consequences for societies and ecosystems. In fact, recent studies have reported that East Asia including the Korean peninsula is regarded to be a highly vulnerability region under global warming, in particular for water resources. As an attempt accurately assess the impact of climate change over Korea, we performed a downscaling of the ECAHM5-MPI/OM global projection under the A1B emission scenario for the period 1971-2100 using the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system. Physically based long-term (130 years) fine-scale (20 km) climate information is appropriate for analyzing the detailed structure of the hydroclimatological response to climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation are translated to the hydrological condition in a direct or indirect way. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variations and a complicated spatial pattern. While changes in total precipitation do not show any relevant trend, the change patterns in daily precipitation clearly show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation. The increase of temperature enhances the evapotranspiration, and hence the actual water stress becomes more pronounced in the future climate. Precipitation, snow, and runoff changes show the relevant topographical modulation under global warming. This study clearly demonstrates the importance of a refined topography for improving the accuracy of the local climatology. Improved accuracy of regional climate projection could lead to an enhanced reliability of the

  7. Impacts of the Minamata Convention for Mercury Emissions from Coal-fired Power Generation in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giang, A.; Stokes, L. C.; Streets, D. G.; Corbitt, E. S.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We explore the potential implications of the recently signed United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from coal-fired power generation in Asia, and the impacts of these emissions changes on deposition of mercury worldwide by 2050. We use qualitative interviews, document analysis, and engineering analysis to create plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention, taking into account both technological and political factors. We translate these scenarios into possible emissions inventories for 2050, based on IPCC development scenarios, and then use the GEOS-Chem global transport model to evaluate the effect of these different technology choices on mercury deposition over geographic regions and oceans. We find that China is most likely to address mercury control through co-benefits from technologies for SO2, NOx, and particulate matter (PM) capture that will be required to attain its existing air quality goals. In contrast, India is likely to focus on improvements to plant efficiency such as upgrading boilers, and coal washing. Compared to current technologies, we project that these changes will result in emissions decreases of approximately 140 and 190 Mg/yr for China and India respectively in 2050, under an A1B development scenario. With these emissions reductions, simulated average gross deposition over India and China are reduced by approximately 10 and 3 μg/m2/yr respectively, and the global average concentration of total gaseous mercury (TGM) is reduced by approximately 10% in the Northern hemisphere. Stricter, but technologically feasible, requirements for mercury control in both countries could lead to an additional 200 Mg/yr of emissions reductions. Modeled differences in concentration and deposition patterns between technology suites are due to differences in both the mercury removal efficiency of technologies and their resulting stack speciation.

  8. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  9. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  10. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  11. Characterisation and mutational analysis of an ORF 1a-encoding proteinase domain responsible for proteolytic processing of the infectious bronchitis virus 1a/1b polyprotein.

    PubMed

    Liu, D X; Brown, T D

    1995-06-01

    Coronavirus gene expression involves proteolytic processing of the mRNA 1-encoded polyproteins by viral and cellular proteinases. Recently, we have demonstrated that an ORF 1b-encoded 100-kDa protein is proteolytically cleaved from the 1a/1b fusion polyprotein by a viral-specific proteinase of the picornavirus 3C proteinase group (3C-like proteinase). In this report, the 3C-like proteinase has been further analysed by internal deletion of a 2.3-kb fragment between the 3C-like proteinase-encoding region and ORF 1b and by substitution mutations of its catalytic centre as well as the two predicted cleavage sites flanking the 100-kDa protein. The results show that internal deletion of ORF 1a sequences from nucleotide 9911 to 12227 does not influence the catalytic activity of the proteinase in processing of the 1a/1b polyprotein to the 100-kDa protein species. Site-directed mutagenesis studies have confirmed that the predicted nucleophilic cysteine residue (Cys2922) and a histidine residue encoded by ORF 1a from nucleotide 8985 to 8987 (His2820) are essential for the catalytic activity of the proteinase, and that the QS(G) dipeptide bonds are its target cleavage sites. Substitution mutations of the third component of the putative catalytic triad, the glutamic acid 2843 (Glu2843) residue, however, do not affect the processing to the 100-kDa protein. In addition, cotransfection experiment shows that the 3C-like proteinase is capable of trans-cleavage of the 1a/1b polyprotein. These studies have confirmed the involvement of the 3C-like proteinase domain in processing of the 1a/1b polyprotein, the predicted catalytic centre of the proteinase, and its cleavage sites. PMID:7778277

  12. Loss of Slc4a1b chloride/bicarbonate exchanger function protects mechanosensory hair cells from aminoglycoside damage in the zebrafish mutant persephone.

    PubMed

    Hailey, Dale W; Roberts, Brock; Owens, Kelly N; Stewart, Andrew K; Linbo, Tor; Pujol, Remy; Alper, Seth L; Rubel, Edwin W; Raible, David W

    2012-01-01

    Mechanosensory hair cell death is a leading cause of hearing and balance disorders in the human population. Hair cells are remarkably sensitive to environmental insults such as excessive noise and exposure to some otherwise therapeutic drugs. However, individual responses to damaging agents can vary, in part due to genetic differences. We previously carried out a forward genetic screen using the zebrafish lateral line system to identify mutations that alter the response of larval hair cells to the antibiotic neomycin, one of a class of aminoglycoside compounds that cause hair cell death in humans. The persephone mutation confers resistance to aminoglycosides. 5 dpf homozygous persephone mutants are indistinguishable from wild-type siblings, but differ in their retention of lateral line hair cells upon exposure to neomycin. The mutation in persephone maps to the chloride/bicarbonate exchanger slc4a1b and introduces a single Ser-to-Phe substitution in zSlc4a1b. This mutation prevents delivery of the exchanger to the cell surface and abolishes the ability of the protein to import chloride across the plasma membrane. Loss of function of zSlc4a1b reduces hair cell death caused by exposure to the aminoglycosides neomycin, kanamycin, and gentamicin, and the chemotherapeutic drug cisplatin. Pharmacological block of anion transport with the disulfonic stilbene derivatives DIDS and SITS, or exposure to exogenous bicarbonate, also protects hair cells against damage. Both persephone mutant and DIDS-treated wild-type larvae show reduced uptake of labeled aminoglycosides. persephone mutants also show reduced FM1-43 uptake, indicating a potential impact on mechanotransduction-coupled activity in the mutant. We propose that tight regulation of the ionic environment of sensory hair cells, mediated by zSlc4a1b activity, is critical for their sensitivity to aminoglycoside antibiotics.

  13. Additive effects of levonorgestrel and ethinylestradiol on brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) in zebrafish specific in vitro and in vivo bioassays.

    PubMed

    Hinfray, N; Tebby, C; Garoche, C; Piccini, B; Bourgine, G; Aït-Aïssa, S; Kah, O; Pakdel, F; Brion, F

    2016-09-15

    Estrogens and progestins are widely used in combination in human medicine and both are present in aquatic environment. Despite the joint exposure of aquatic wildlife to estrogens and progestins, very little information is available on their combined effects. In the present study we investigated the effect of ethinylestradiol (EE2) and Levonorgestrel (LNG), alone and in mixtures, on the expression of the brain specific ER-regulated cyp19a1b gene. For that purpose, recently established zebrafish-derived tools were used: (i) an in vitro transient reporter gene assay in a human glial cell line (U251-MG) co-transfected with zebrafish estrogen receptors (zfERs) and the luciferase gene under the control of the zebrafish cyp19a1b gene promoter and (ii) an in vivo bioassay using a transgenic zebrafish expressing GFP under the control of the zebrafish cyp19a1b gene promoter (cyp19a1b-GFP). Concentration-response relationships for single chemicals were modeled and used to design the mixture experiments following a ray design. The results from mixture experiments were analyzed to predict joint effects according to concentration addition and statistical approaches were used to characterize the potential interactions between the components of the mixtures (synergism/antagonism). We confirmed that some progestins could elicit estrogenic effects in fish brain. In mixtures, EE2 and LNG exerted additive estrogenic effects both in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that some environmental progestin could exert effects that will add to those of environmental (xeno-)estrogens. Moreover, our zebrafish specific assays are valuable tools that could be used in risk assessment for both single chemicals and their mixtures. PMID:27491593

  14. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  15. Effect-directed analysis for estrogenic compounds in a fluvial sediment sample using transgenic cyp19a1b-GFP zebrafish embryos.

    PubMed

    Fetter, Eva; Krauss, Martin; Brion, François; Kah, Olivier; Scholz, Stefan; Brack, Werner

    2014-09-01

    Xenoestrogens may persist in the environment by binding to sediments or suspended particulate matter serving as long-term reservoir and source of exposure, particularly for organisms living in or in contact with sediments. In this study, we present for the first time an effect-directed analysis (EDA) for identifying estrogenic compounds in a sediment sample using embryos of a transgenic reporter fish strain. In the tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) transgenic zebrafish strain, the expression of GFP (green fluorescent protein) in the brain is driven by an oestrogen responsive element in the promoter of the cyp19a1b (aromatase) gene. The selected sediment sample of the Czech river Bilina had already been analysed in a previous EDA using the yeast oestrogen screening assay and had revealed fractions containing estrogenic compounds. When normal phase HPLC (high performance liquid chromatography) fractionation was used for the separation of the sediment sample, the biotest with transgenic fish embryos revealed two estrogenic fractions. Chemical analysis of candidate compounds in these sediment fractions suggested alkylphenols and estrone as candidate compounds responsible for the observed estrogenic effect. Alkylphenol concentrations could partially explain the estrogenicity of the fractions. However, xenoestrogens below the analytical detection limit or non-targeted estrogenic compounds have probably also contributed to the sample's estrogenic potency. The results indicated the suitability of the tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) fish embryo for an integrated chemical-biological analysis of estrogenic effects.

  16. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  17. A probabilistic approach to emissions from transportation sector in the coming decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

    2010-12-01

    Future emission estimates are necessary for understanding climate change, designing national and international strategies for air quality control and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so. Most current emission projection models are deterministic; in other words, there is only single answer for each scenario. As a result, uncertainties have not been included in the estimation of climate forcing or other environmental effects, but it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. We explore uncertainties of emission projections from transportation sector in the coming decades by sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. These projections are based on a technology driven model: the Speciated Pollutants Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend, which responds to socioeconomic conditions in different economic and mitigation scenarios. The model contains detail about technology stock, including consumption growth rates, retirement rates, timing of emission standards, deterioration rates and transition rates from normal vehicles to vehicles with extremely high emission factors (termed “superemitters”). However, understanding of these parameters, as well as relationships with socioeconomic conditions, is uncertain. We project emissions from transportation sectors under four different IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). Due to the later implementation of advanced emission standards, Africa has the highest annual growth rate (1.2-3.1%) from 2010 to 2050. Superemitters begin producing more than 50% of global emissions around year 2020. We estimate uncertainties from the relationships between technological change and socioeconomic conditions and examine their impact on future emissions. Sensitivities to parameters governing retirement rates are highest, causing changes in global emissions from-26% to +55% on average from 2010 to 2050. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to examine

  18. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  19. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    DOE PAGES

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

  20. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  1. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  2. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008

  3. Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2016-03-01

    A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

  4. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-07-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  5. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  6. Effects of future climate and land cover changes on biogenic emissions and air quality in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, S. H.; Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Arroyo, A.; Lamb, B. K.; Duhl, T.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Guenther, A. B.; Zhang, Y.; Salathe, E. P.

    2009-12-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted from vegetations are highly reactive in the atmosphere and contribute to ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation. Climate change influences vegetation distributions and emissions of BVOCs and thereby affects air quality. As part of a comprehensive investigation of the effects of global change on regional air quality in the US, this study examines the effects of future climate and land cover changes on emissions of BVOCs into the atmosphere and air quality in the US. The mesoscale WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is applied at hemispheric (220 km grid cells) and continental US (36 km grid cells) scales for current (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades to downscale climate results from the ECHAM5 global climate model for IPCC SRES scenario A1B. The MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) model is driven by WRF meteorological results to predict biogenic emissions of VOCs and NOx. MEGAN accounts for vegetation species distributions and environmental factors such as temperature and light. Current decade vegetation distributions are derived from satellite observations. Future vegetation distributions are predicted from MAPSS (Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System) and the land cover model of IMAGE 2.0 (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment). Future land cover changes include the expansion of croplands so that land management changes can also be examined. The CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling) chemical transport model is used to simulate O3 and aerosol concentrations using current- and future-decade biogenic emissions but with anthropogenic emissions held constant at current-decade levels. Results showing the changes in US air quality due to climate- and landuse-driven changes in biogenic emissions will be presented. These results are compared to previous simulations derived from the IPCC SRES scenario A1 scenario with the PCM (Parallel Climate Model

  7. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  8. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to

  9. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2013-09-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to

  10. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  11. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  12. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  13. Climate scenarios for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.

  14. Viral hepatitis: Indian scenario.

    PubMed

    Satsangi, Sandeep; Chawla, Yogesh K

    2016-07-01

    Viral hepatitis is a cause for major health care burden in India and is now equated as a threat comparable to the "big three" communicable diseases - HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. Hepatitis A virus and Hepatitis E virus are predominantly enterically transmitted pathogens and are responsible to cause both sporadic infections and epidemics of acute viral hepatitis. Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus are predominantly spread via parenteral route and are notorious to cause chronic hepatitis which can lead to grave complications including cirrhosis of liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. Around 400 million people all over the world suffer from chronic hepatitis and the Asia-Pacific region constitutes the epicentre of this epidemic. The present article would aim to cover the basic virologic aspects of these viruses and highlight the present scenario of viral hepatitis in India. PMID:27546957

  15. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  16. A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duveiller, G.; Donatelli, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Zucchini, A.; Nelson, R.; Baruth, B.

    2015-10-01

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure

  17. Spatio-temporal prediction of leaf area index of rubber plantation using HJ-1A/1B CCD images and recurrent neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Bangqian; Wu, Zhixiang; Wang, Jikun; Dong, Jinwei; Guan, Liming; Chen, Junming; Yang, Kai; Xie, Guishui

    2015-04-01

    Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations are one of the most important economic forest in tropical area. Retrieving leaf area index (LAI) and its dynamics by remote sensing is of great significance in ecological study and production management, such as yield prediction and post-hurricane damage evaluation. Thirteen HJ-1A/1B CCD images, which possess the spatial advantage of Landsat TM/ETM+ and 2-days temporal resolution of MODIS, were introduced to predict the spatial-temporal LAI of rubber plantation on Hainan Island by Nonlinear AutoRegressive networks with eXogenous inputs (NARX) model. Monthly measured LAIs at 30 stands by LAI-2000 between 2012 and 2013 were used to explore the LAI dynamics and their relationship with spectral bands and seven vegetation indices, and to develop and validate model. The NARX model, which was built base on input variables of day of year (DOY), four spectral bands and weight difference vegetation index (WDVI), possessed good accuracies during the model building for the data set of training (N = 202, R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 0.13), validation (N = 43, R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 0.24) and testing (N = 43, R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 0.31), respectively. The model performed well during field validation (N = 24, R2 = 0.88, RMSE = 0.24) and most of its mapping results showed better agreement (R2 = 0.54-0.58, RMSE = 0.47-0.71) with the field data than the results of corresponding stepwise regression models (R2 = 0.43-0.51, RMSE = 0.52-0.82). Besides, the LAI statistical values from the spatio-temporal LAI maps and their dynamics, which increased dramatically from late March (2.36 ± 0.59) to early May (3.22 ± 0.64) and then gradually slow down until reached the maximum value in early October (4.21 ± 0.87), were quite consistent with the statistical results of the field data. The study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of retrieving spatio-temporal LAI of rubber plantations by an artificial neural network (ANN) approach, and provides some insight on the

  18. Tracking radiometric responsivity of optical sensors without on-board calibration systems-case of the Chinese HJ-1A/1B CCD sensors.

    PubMed

    Li, Jian; Chen, Xiaoling; Tian, Liqiao; Feng, Lian

    2015-01-26

    The radiometric stability of satellite sensors is crucial for generating highly consistent remote sensing measurements and products. We have presented a radiometric responsivity tracking method designed especially for optical sensors without on-board calibration systems. Using a temporally stable desert site with high reflectance, the sensor responsivity was simulated using the Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) radiative transfer model (RTM) with information from validated MODIS atmospheric data. Next, radiometric responsivity drifting was identified using a linear regression of the time series bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) normalized coefficients. The proposed method was applied to Chinese HJ-1A/1B charge-coupled device (CCD) sensors, which have been on-orbit operations for more than 5 years without continuous assessment of their radiometric performance. Results from the Dunhuang desert site between 2008 and 2013 indicated that the CCD sensors degraded at various rates, with the most significant degradation occurring in the blue bands, ranging from 2.8% to 4.2% yr-1. The red bands were more stable, with a degradation rate of 0.7-3.1% yr-1. A cross-sensor comparison revealed the least degradation for the HJ-1A CCD1 (blue: 2.8%; green: 2.8%; red: 0.7%; and NIR: 0.9% yr-1), whereas the degradation of HJ-1B CCD1 was most pronounced (blue: 3.5%; green: 4.1%; red: 2.3%; and NIR: 3.4% yr-1). The uncertainties of the method were evaluated theoretically based on the propagation of uncertainties from all possible sources of the RT simulations. In addition, a cross comparison with matchup ground-based absolute calibration results was conducted. The comparison demonstrated that the method was useful for continuously monitoring the radiometric performance of remote sensors, such as HJ-1A/1B CCD and GaoFen (GF) series (China's latest high-definition Earth observation

  19. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    PubMed

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  20. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  1. Broad screening of the legume family for variability in seed insecticidal activities and for the occurrence of the A1b-like knottin peptide entomotoxins.

    PubMed

    Louis, Sandrine; Delobel, Bernard; Gressent, Frédéric; Duport, Gabrielle; Diol, Ousmane; Rahioui, Isabelle; Charles, Hubert; Rahbé, Yvan

    2007-02-01

    Pea albumin 1b (PA1b) is a small sulphur-rich peptide from pea seeds, also named leginsulin because of the binding characteristics of its soybean orthologue. Its insecticidal properties were discovered more recently. By using a combination of molecular, biochemical and specific insect bioassays on seed extracts, we characterised genes from numerous Papilionoideae, but not from Caesalpinioideae or Mimosoideae, although the last group harboured species with partially positive cues (homologous biological activities). The A1b defence peptide family, therefore, appears to have evolved relatively late in the legume lineage, maybe from the sophoroid group (e.g. Styphnolobium japonicum). However, unambiguous sequence information is restricted to a group of tribes within the subfamily Papilionoideae (Psoraleae, Millettieae, Desmodieae, Hedysareae, Phaseoleae, Vicieae, and the now clearly polyphyletic "Trifolieae" and "Galegeae"). Recent diversification by gene duplications has occurred in many species, or longer ago in some lineages (Medicago truncatula), as well as probable gene or expression losses at different taxonomic levels (Loteae, Vigna subterranea). PMID:17222873

  2. Material Specific Rational Design of A1B2C3O7 High-Tc Superconductors without Copper [A, B, C = Cations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isikaku-Ironkwe, O'paul; Schaffer, Michael J.

    Soon after the discovery of YBa2Cu3O7 with Tc = 93K, a similar structured system with Ag replacing Cu was discovered with a Tc = 50K. Also, the discovery of Ba0 . 6 K0 . 4 BiO3 with Tc = 30K indicated that Cu was not indispensable for high temperature superconductivity (HTSC). Latter, the discoveries of the Pnictide and Chalcogenide high-Tc superconductors confirmed those earlier experimental indications. Using our recently developed Material Specific Characterization Dataset (MSCD) model for analysis and design of superconductors, we have computed many designs that satisfy the MSCD characteristics of YBa2Cu3O7 as a design model. Our design recognizes the valence state characteristics that make YBa2Cu3O6 a semiconductor, while YBa2Cu3O7is a superconductor. Here we present ten material specific rational design examples of potential A1B2C3O7 HTSCs without Cu, using the YBa2Cu3O7 design model. This MSCD design model opens the possibility for search and discovery of high-Tc oxide superconductor systems without copper.

  3. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

  4. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  5. Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario in the North Sea and possible effects on dinoflagellate harmful algal blooms.

    PubMed

    Friocourt, Y F; Skogen, M; Stolte, W; Albretsen, J

    2012-01-01

    Two hydrodynamic and ecological models were used to investigate the effects of climate change-according to the IPCC A1b emission scenario - on the primary productivity of the North Sea and on harmful algal blooms. Both models were forced with atmospheric fields from a regional downscaling of General Circulation Models to compare two sets of 20-year simulations representative of present climate (1984-2004) conditions and of the 2040s. Both models indicated a general warming of the North Sea by up to 0.8°C and a slight freshening by the 2040s. The models suggested that the eastern North Sea would be subjected to more temperature and salinity changes than the western part. In addition, the ecological modules of the models indicated that the warming up of the sea would result in a slightly earlier spring bloom. The one model that also computes the distribution of four different phytoplankton groups suggests an increase in the abundance of dinoflagellates, whereas the abundance of diatoms, flagellates and Phaeocystis sp. remains comparable to current levels, or decrease. Assuming that Dinophysis spp. would experience a similar increase in abundance as the modelled group of dinoflagellates, it is hypothesised that blooms of Dinophysis spp. may occur more frequently in the North Sea by 2040. However, implications for shellfish toxicity remain unclear.

  6. Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two

  7. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  8. Prophylactic effects of asiaticoside-based standardized extract of Centella asiatica (L.) Urban leaves on experimental migraine: Involvement of 5HT1A/1B receptors.

    PubMed

    Bobade, Vijeta; Bodhankar, Subhash L; Aswar, Urmila; Vishwaraman, Mohan; Thakurdesai, Prasad

    2015-04-01

    The present study aimed at evaluation of prophylactic efficacy and possible mechanisms of asiaticoside (AS) based standardized extract of Centella asiatica (L.) Urban leaves (INDCA) in animal models of migraine. The effects of oral and intranasal (i.n.) pretreatment of INDCA (acute and 7-days subacute) were evaluated against nitroglycerine (NTG, 10 mg·kg(-1), i.p.) and bradykinin (BK, 10 μg, intra-arterial) induced hyperalgesia in rats. Tail flick latencies (from 0 to 240 min) post-NTG treatment and the number of vocalizations post-BK treatment were recorded as a measure of hyperalgesia. Separate groups of rats for negative (Normal) and positive (sumatriptan, 42 mg·kg(-1), s.c.) controls were included. The interaction of INDCA with selective 5-HT1A, 5-HT1B, and 5-HT1D receptor antagonists (NAN-190, Isamoltane hemifumarate, and BRL-15572 respectively) against NTG-induced hyperalgesia was also evaluated. Acute and sub-acute pre-treatment of INDCA [10 and 30 mg·kg(-1) (oral) and 100 μg/rat (i.n.) showed significant anti-nociception activity, and reversal of the NTG-induced hyperalgesia and brain 5-HT concentration decline. Oral pre-treatment with INDCA (30 mg·kg(-1), 7 d) showed significant reduction in the number of vocalization. The anti-nociceptive effects of INDCA were blocked by 5-HT1A and 5-HT1B but not 5-HT1D receptor antagonists. In conclusion, INDCA demonstrated promising anti-nociceptive effects in animal models of migraine, probably through 5-HT1A/1B medicated action.

  9. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  10. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  11. Analysis of Regional Climate Changes adjusted Future Urban Growth Scenarios and possibility of the future air quality prediction in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Jeong, J.

    2012-12-01

    urbanized area. Additionally, we thought that the difference of variables like surface temperature and PBL height will surely create the variation of the future air quality in SMA. So, we examined the CMAQ (Community Modeling and Analysis System) model, which is usually to predict the timely variation and the spatial distribution of air pollutant like ozone, particular matter, to know the possibility of the prediction of the future air quality changes under the urban growth changes and ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios. To make the initial emission data for CMAQ modeling, we analyzed the National Air Pollutants emission data for past 12 years (1999~2010) generated by National institute of Environmental Research in Korea and assumed that future emission is increased linearly by 2050.

  12. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  13. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  14. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  15. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  16. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  17. Haemoprotein b-590 (Escherichia coli), a reducible catalase and peroxidase: evidence for its close relationship to hydroperoxidase I and a 'cytochrome a1b' preparation.

    PubMed

    Poole, R K; Baines, B S; Appleby, C A

    1986-06-01

    ) and that a similar haemoprotein was mistaken for a cytochrome a1 b complex by Barrett & Sinclair (Abstracts of the 7th International Congress of Biochemistry, Tokyo, H-107, p. 907, 1967).

  18. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  19. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  20. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  1. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  2. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use.

  3. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. PMID:26604078

  4. Land-use and climate driven changes in BVOC emissions and their impacts on atmospheric chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, W. C.; Baughman, E. C.; Barsanti, K. C.; Rosenstiel, T.

    2011-12-01

    meteorological datasets were prepared, including Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis data for several years between 2000 and 2005, as well as global climate model (GCM) output following Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections for the A1B scenario. The impacts of rising CO2 and O3 levels on BVOC emissions were also parameterized and included as an examination of land-use/climate feedbacks. As part of a larger effort to further understand connections between biogenic emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change, this work seeks to outline and underscore the importance of air quality considerations in land-use planning.

  5. Scenarios of daily extreme precipitation under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, Hofstätter; Christoph, Matulla; Jiafeng, Wang

    2010-05-01

    Daily extreme precipitation events under climate change conditions are the focus of research in our study. Such events can have considerable impacts on wealth and society by causing floodings or mudslides for example. In our study we used daily records of precipitation at 50 stations over Austria covering the period 1963-2006. To calculate the adequate timeseries for the future considering IPCC's climate change scenarios A1B and B1, we applied the analog method. Daily fields of Sea Level Pressure from the NCAR/NCEP1 Reanalysis within the region of Europe (20W-35E/30S-65N), served as the prime predictor between local scale observations and climate simulations out of the MPI-ECHAM5 model. Several return values were determined by fitting a GEV distribution to the timeseries consisting of the three most extreme, declustered events per year. The results reveal that future changes of 20y-return values are within +/-20% for most stations, whereby the signal of change is stronger for the first period (2007-2050) as compared to the later one (2051-2094). This is valid for both IPCC scenarios. We conclude, that even in the relatively small area of Austria both the sign and rate of change in future extreme precipitation, offers a clear diversity among climatological regions. This implies an important aspect for forthcoming studies.

  6. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  7. Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the atmosphere: Required emissions and possible side effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Chernokulsky, A. V.; Karpenko, A. A.

    2009-04-01

    An approach to mitigate the global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (IAP RAS CM). The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenical greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860-2100 with an additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the 21st century. Different ensemble members were constructed by varying emission intensity, residence time, optical properites, and horizontal distributions of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, starting and ending years of applied emissions are varied between different ensemble members. Given global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, at the global basis, the most efficient latitudinal distribution of geoengineering aerosols is that peaked between 50∘N and 70∘N. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is slightly less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000-2010 amount 5 - 10 TgS/yr in year 2050 and > 10 TgS/yr in year 2100. This is not a small part of the current emissions of tropospheric sulphates. Moreover, even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. If the geoengineering emissions are stopped, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air temperture may change with a rate of several Kelvins per decade. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted by making use of an energy-balance climate model. As a whole, the results obtained with this simpler model support conclusions made on the basis of the IAP RAS CM simulations.

  8. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  9. Type Ia Supernova Models and Progenitor Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nomoto, Ken'ichi; Kamiya, Yasuomi; Nakasato, Naohito

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent developments in theoretical studies on the connection between the progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the explosion mechanisms. (1) DD-subCh: In the merging of double C+O white dwarfs (DD scenario), if the carbon detonation is induced near the white dwarf (WD) surface in the early dynamical phase, it could result in the (effectively) sub-Chandrasekhar mass explosion. (2) DD-Ch: If no surface C-detonation is ignited, the WD could grow until the Chandrasekhar mass is reached, but the outcome depends on whether the quiescent carbon shell burning is ignited and burns C+O into O+Ne+Mg. (3) SD-subCh: In the single degenerate (SD) scenario, if the He shell-flashes grow strong to induce a He detonation, it leads to the sub-Chandra explosion. (4) SD-Ch: If the He-shell flashes are not strong enough, they still produce interesting amounts of Si and S near the surface of the C+O WD before the explosion. In the Chandra mass explosion, the central density is high enough to produce electron capture elements, e.g., stable 58Ni. Observations of the emission lines of Ni in the nebular spectra provides useful diagnostics of the sub-Chandra vs. Chandra issue. The recent observations of relatively low velocity carbon near the surface of SNe Ia provide also an interesting constraint on the explosion models.

  10. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  11. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  12. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

  13. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  14. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  15. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  16. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  17. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  18. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  19. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2013-01-01

    The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. PMID:24452253

  20. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  1. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU.

  2. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Meinshausen, Malte; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Joos, Fortunat; Strassmann, Kuno M.; Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, T. M.; Raper, S.; Riahi, Keywan; De La Chesnaye, Francisco; Den Elzen, Michel; Fujino, Junicho; Kejun, Jiang; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

    2008-10-06

    Estimates on 21st century global mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multi-gas mitigation scenarios now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. By combing emission pathway results from multiple energy-economic models, we show that these mitigation scenarios result in a range of 21st century temperature increase of 0.5 to 4.2°C over 1990 levels as compared to 1.3-7.3 °C for the no-policy cases. About half the range is due to differences in the assumed stringency of the global climate policy and half is due to uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system, specifically, the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity. A minimum warming of about 0.5-2.7°C (avg. 1.3oC) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here - highlighting the need for both emission mitigation and adaptation policies.

  3. Chlorofluorocarbon production scenarios: possible changes to stratospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Tarp, R.L.; Nold, A.; Wood, W.P.

    1981-01-01

    As one aspect of the regulatory process, the Environmental Protection Agency has derived a series of scenarios for future atmospheric emission rates of the chlorofluorocarbons CFCl/sub 3/ (also referred to as F-11), CF/sub 2/Cl/sub 2/ (F-12), CCl/sub 2/FCClF/sub 2/(F-113), CClF/sub 2/CClF/sub 2/(F-114), and CClF/sub 2/CF/sub 3/ (F-115). These scenarios are based on potential industrial production and commercial applications, and the eventual release of these chemicals into the atmosphere. In this study, the potential effect on stratospheric ozone resulting from future chlorofluorocarbon emissions as suggested by these scenarios is examined. Assessments are based upon model calculations using the one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The change in total ozone column calculated for the seven scenarios as a function of time is given. (JGB)

  4. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments

    PubMed Central

    Bierwagen, Britta G.; Theobald, David M.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V.; Morefield, Philip

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available. PMID:21078956

  5. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life. PMID:9463932

  6. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  7. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the

  8. Change in statistics of drought in a land use scenario for Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilian, Markus; Chavez, Erik; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    The land use changes due to an intensified and expanding agricultural and industrial activity is affecting regional weather and climate in Brazil. We analyse the results of a land use change driven Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) using classical drought indices and specific agricultural yield loss drought optimum indices. The objective is to assess changes in risk exposure driven by changes in weather patterns subject to different scenarios of land use changes in Brazil. The WRF model is driven by land use changes as well as the ECHAM5 climate model (with the A1B scenario) on a 60km and 30km grid. In order to determine the risk exposure of an important economic sector to changes in land use change we focus on maize as one of the principal crop grown in Brazil.

  9. On the hadronic cascade scenario for extreme BL Lacs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavecchio, Fabrizio

    2014-03-01

    The peculiar high-energy emission spectrum of the so-called extreme BL Lacs (EHBL) challenges the standard emission models of blazars. Among the possible solutions, the so-called hadronic cascade scenario assumes that the observed high-energy radiation is produced in the intergalactic space through photo-hadronic reactions by ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) with energies up to 1019-20 eV beamed by the blazar jet. Under the assumption - implicit in this model - that the intrinsic high-energy synchrotron self-Compton emission of the blazar does not substantially contribute to the observed γ-ray spectrum, we derive constraints to the basic physical quantities of the jet and we compare them with the requirements of the hadronic cascade scenario. We found that, for a plausible range of relativistic jet Doppler factors (δ = 10-50), the maximum achievable energy of the accelerated protons can exceed 2 × 1019 eV with jet powers of the order of ≈1044 erg s-1, parameters compatible with the requests of the hadronic scenario even if EHBL are embedded in magnetic fields of cosmic filaments. We also discuss the consequences of our results for the possibility that local EHBL contribute to the observed UHECR.

  10. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals.

    PubMed

    Dornburg, Veronika; Hermann, Barbara G; Patel, Martin K

    2008-04-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotechnology chemicals, that is, resulting in a share of white biotechnology chemicals relative to all organic chemicals of about 7 (or 5 million tonnes), 17.5 (or 26 million tonnes), or 38% (or 113 million tonnes) in 2050. We conclude that under favorable conditions, white biotechnology enables substantial savings of nonrenewable energy use (NREU) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the energy use of the future production of all organic chemicals from fossil resources. Savings of NREU reach up to 17% for starch crops and up to 31% for lignocellulosic feedstock by 2050, and saving percentages for GHG emissions are in a similar range. Parallel to these environmental benefits, economic advantages of up to 75 billion Euro production cost savings arise. PMID:18504951

  11. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  12. Modelling Wave-Driven Coastal Sediment Transport in a Climate Change Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaldo, Davide; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bergamasco, Andrea; Carniel, Sandro; Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Sclavo, Mauro

    2013-04-01

    Coastal morphodynamics is the result of a number of processes in which most of the driving factors strongly depend on climatic conditions. Thus, climate change is one of the most impacting constraints in governing long-term coastal landscape evolution: in particular, such influence acts through sea level rise and the effects of changes in atmospheric dynamics. While the former causes a general retreat of the shoreline and the flooding of the underlying coastal zones, with a direct effect on the coastal zone, changes in atmospheric dynamics modify landscape processes via storm surge and wave climate variations. In particular, modifications in wave storminess affect coastal sediment transport, with possibly relevant implications especially in environments with strong morphodynamic activity. In the present work we investigate the impact of a possible climate change scenario on wave-driven coastal sediment transport in a deltaic system in the Northern Adriatic Sea with reference to the period 2070-2099. To this aim, the results of a spectral wave model (SWAN) forced with climatological wind fields have been used. These were obtained by means of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (COSMO-CLM) with reference to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The resulting wave climate has been used as a constraint for a hydro- morphodynamic model, which was applied to a test site on the Po Delta (Northern Italy): relevant transport processes have been studied both at decadal and at storm time scales and compared with the corresponding results of a control analysis (1965-1995) representing the actual climate. A predicted reduction of the cyclonic activity in the Northern Adriatic Sea produces a decrease in significant wave height (Benetazzo et al., 2012), thus generating non-negligible impacts on sediment resuspension and transport processes along the western Adriatic coast. In particular, compared to cross-shore transport, long-shore sediment drift appears to be most affected by

  13. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  14. 40 CFR Table 2 to Subpart Eeee of... - Emission Limits

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... to this subpart, items 1.a, 1.b, or 1.c for tanks storing liquids described in that table. b. The... liquid is crude oil. i. See the requirement in item 1.a.i or 1.a.ii of this table. 5. A storage tank at a...) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants: Organic Liquids Distribution (Non-Gasoline)...

  15. 40 CFR Table 2 to Subpart Eeee of... - Emission Limits

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... to this subpart, items 1.a, 1.b, or 1.c for tanks storing liquids described in that table. b. The... liquid is crude oil. i. See the requirement in item 1.a.i or 1.a.ii of this table. 5. A storage tank at a...) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants: Organic Liquids Distribution (Non-Gasoline)...

  16. 40 CFR Table 2 to Subpart Eeee of... - Emission Limits

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... to this subpart, items 1.a, 1.b, or 1.c for tanks storing liquids described in that table. b. The... liquid is crude oil. i. See the requirement in item 1.a.i or 1.a.ii of this table. 5. A storage tank at a...) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants: Organic Liquids Distribution (Non-Gasoline)...

  17. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  18. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  19. Electron transfer from the A1A and A1B sites to a tethered Pt nanoparticle requires the FeS clusters for suppression of the recombination channel.

    PubMed

    Gorka, Michael; Perez, Adam; Baker, Carol S; Ferlez, Bryan; van der Est, Art; Bryant, Donald A; Golbeck, John H

    2015-11-01

    In this work, a previously described model of electron withdrawal from the A1A/A1B sites of Photosystem I (PS I) was tested using a dihydrogen-producing PS I-NQ(CH2)15S-Pt nanoconstruct. According to this model, the rate of electron transfer from A1A/A1B to a tethered Pt nanoparticle is kinetically unfavorable relative to the rate of forward electron transfer to the FeS clusters. Dihydrogen is produced only when an external donor rapidly reduces P700(+), thereby suppressing the recombination channel and allowing the electron in the FeS clusters to proceed via uphill electron transfer through the A1A/A1B quinones to the Pt nanoparticle. We tested this model by sequentially removing the FeS clusters, FB, FA, and FX, and determining the concentration of cytochrome c6 (Cyt c6) at which the backreaction was outcompeted and dihydrogen production was observed. P700-FA cores were generated in a menB insertionally inactivated strain by removing FB with HgCl2; P700-FX cores were generated in a menB psaC insertionally inactivated strain that lacks FA and FB, and P700-A1 cores were generated in a menB rubA insertionally inactivated strain that lacks FX, FA and FB. Quinone incorporation was measured using transient electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy and time resolved optical spectroscopy. Cyt c6 was titrated into each of these PS I preparations and the kinetics of P700(+) reduction were measured. A similar experiment was carried out on PS I-NQ(CH2)15S-Pt nanoconstructs assembled from these PS I preparations. This study showed that the concentration of Cyt c6 needed to produce dihydrogen was comparable to that needed to suppress the backreaction. We conclude that the FeS clusters serve to 'park' the electron and thereby extend the duration of the charge-separated state; however, in doing so, the redox advantage of removing the electron at A1A/A1B is lost.

  20. Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2010-05-01

    Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes

  1. Ischemic preconditioning and clinical scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Narayanan, Srinivasan V.; Dave, Kunjan R.; Perez-Pinzon, Miguel A.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of review Ischemic preconditioning (IPC) is gaining attention as a novel neuroprotective therapy and could provide an improved mechanistic understanding of tolerance to cerebral ischemia. The purpose of this article is to review the recent work in the field of IPC and its applications to clinical scenarios. Recent findings The cellular signaling pathways that are activated following IPC are now better understood and have enabled investigators to identify several IPC mimetics. Most of these studies were performed in rodents, and efficacy of these mimetics remains to be evaluated in human patients. Additionally, remote ischemic preconditioning (RIPC) may have higher translational value than IPC. Repeated cycles of temporary ischemia in a remote organ can activate protective pathways in the target organ, including the heart and brain. Clinical trials are underway to test the efficacy of RIPC in protecting brain against subarachnoid hemorrhage. Summary IPC, RIPC, and IPC mimetics have the potential to be therapeutic in various clinical scenarios. Further understanding of IPC-induced neuroprotection pathways and utilization of clinically relevant animal models are necessary to increase the translational potential of IPC in the near future. PMID:23197083

  2. Prophylaxis in real life scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fischer, K; Konkle, B; Broderick, C; Kessler, C M

    2014-05-01

    Prophylaxis has become the standard mantra of care for those individuals with severe haemophilia A and B. Primary prophylaxis is advocated to prevent the occurrence of symptomatic acute spontaneous haemarthroses and to preserve joint structure and function. Typically, twice or thrice weekly infusions of factor VIII or IX concentrates are integral to this treatment approach. Secondary prophylaxis is initiated after the relentless cycle of progressive joint damage has been triggered by prior haemarthroses and is intended to preserve existing joint health by preventing additional spontaneous bleeding events. Event-driven prophylaxis involves the administration of clotting factor concentrates to prevent acute traumatic bleeds, which are anticipated to occur in association with surgical or physical trauma. This regimen enhances the effectiveness of primary or secondary prophylaxis protocols or on-demand approaches to replacement therapy. Besides the marked reduction in the so-called annual bleed rate, prophylaxis regimens frequently increase personal self-confidence to embark on a more active and physical lifestyle; however, in reality, prophylaxis must be individualized in accordance with bleeding phenotypes, with the unique pharmacokinetic profile of administered replacement clotting factor concentrates, with the specific clinical scenario, and with the degree of intensity anticipated for any physical activity. The introduction of extended half-life replacement products will also influence how these prophylaxis regimens will be accomplished. The following scenarios will discuss how prophylaxis regimens can be implemented to protect the individual from developing spontaneous and activity-induced acute bleeding complications and to maintain an improved quality of life.

  3. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  4. Assessment of riverine load of contaminants to European seas under policy implementation scenarios: an example with 3 pilot substances.

    PubMed

    Marinov, Dimitar; Pistocchi, Alberto; Trombetti, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    An evaluation of conventional emission scenarios is carried out targeting a possible impact of European Union (EU) policies on riverine loads to the European seas for 3 pilot pollutants: lindane, trifluralin, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The policy scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical-specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures including business as usual (BAU), current trend (CT), partial implementation (PI), or complete ban (PI ban) of emissions. The scenario analyses show that the model-estimated lindane load of 745 t to European seas in 1995, based on the official emission data, would be reduced by 98.3% to approximately 12.5 t in 2005 (BAU scenario), 10 years after the start of the EU regulation of this chemical. The CT and PI ban scenarios indicate a reduction of sea loads of lindane in 2020 by 74% and 95%, respectively, when compared to the BAU estimate. For trifluralin, an annual load of approximately 61.7 t is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario), although the applied conservative assumptions related to pesticide use data availability in Europe. Under the PI (ban) scenario, assuming only small residual emissions of trifluralin, we estimate a sea loading of approximately 0.07 t/y. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated at approximately 5.8 t/y referred to 2007 (BAU scenario). Reducing the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of conventional scenarios or scenario typologies for emissions of contaminants using simple spatially explicit GIS-based models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of implementation of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets. PMID:23801648

  5. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  6. Projecting U.S. climate forcing and criteria pollutant emissions through 2050

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation highlighting a method for translating emission scenarios to model-ready emission inventories. The presentation highlights new features for spatially allocating emissions to counties and grid cells and identifies areas of potential improvement, such as updating tempor...

  7. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume

    2015-04-01

    It is shown that teleparallel F(T) theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked that these bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  8. Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection in Urban Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rejas Ayuga, J. G.; Martínez Marín, R.; Marchamalo Sacristán, M.; Bonatti, J.; Ojeda, J. C.

    2016-06-01

    We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR), shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain) and San José (Costa Rica) respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background) based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  9. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  10. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  11. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F; Stephen, Jamie; Stumborg, Mark; Fenton, James; Mani, Sudhagar

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  12. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  13. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

  14. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  15. Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model.

    PubMed

    Solecki, William D; Oliveri, Charles

    2004-08-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.

  16. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  17. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  18. Future changes in precipitation of the baiu season under RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, the relationship between global warming and rainfall during the rainy season, which called the baiu in Japan, has been attracting attention in association with heavy rainfall in this period. In the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century, many studies show a delay in the northward march of the baiu front, and significant increase of daily precipitation amounts around western Japan during the late baiu season (e.g., Kusunoki et al. 2011, Kanada et al. 2012). The future climate experiment in these studies was performed under the IPCC SRES A1B scenarios for global warming conditions. In this study, we discuss the future changes in precipitation using calculated 60km-mesh model (MRI-AGCM3.2H) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). These dataset are calculated by setting the Yoshimura (YS) scheme mainly.Seasonal progression of future precipitation generally indicates the northward in RCP2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, around western Japan. In RCP6.0 scenario, precipitation intensity is weak compared to the other scenarios. RCP8.5 scenario is calculated by setting three different cumulus schemes (YS, Arakawa-Schubert (AS), and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes). RCP8.5 configured in YS scheme showed that the rainband associated with the baiu front is not clear. Moreover, peak is remarkable during late June. In AS scheme, the precipitation area stagnates around 30 N until August. And it in KF scheme shows gradual northward migration.This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

  19. Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2014-09-15

    Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p < 0.05). However, pessimistic land use scenario led to significant increases on an annual basis (turbidity: +11.6%, FC: +15.2%; p < 0.05). Additional simulations conducted for the late 21st century (2090) revealed that climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon.

  20. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  1. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Kay, Gillian; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, José F.; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Lyra, André A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Betts, Richard; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila

    2012-05-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and São Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.

  2. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  3. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  4. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  5. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  6. Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): I. Exhaust emissions from on-road vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Fang; Winijkul, Ekbordin; Jung, Soonkyu; Bond, Tami C.; Streets, David G.

    2011-09-01

    We present global emission projections of primary particulate matter (PM) from exhaust of on-road vehicles under four commonly-used global fuel use scenarios from 2010 to 2050. The projections are based on a dynamic model of vehicle population linked to emission characteristics, SPEW-Trend. Unlike previous models of global emissions, this model incorporates more details on the technology stock, including the vehicle type and age, and the number of emitters with very high emissions ("superemitters"). However, our estimates of vehicle growth are driven by changes in predicted fuel consumption from macroeconomic scenarios, ensuring that PM projections are consistent with these scenarios. Total emissions are then obtained by integrating emissions of heterogeneous vehicle groups of all ages and types. Changes in types of vehicles in use are governed by retirement rates, timing of emission standards and the rate at which superemitters develop from normal vehicles. Retirement rates are modeled as a function of vehicle age and income level with a relationship based on empirical data, capturing the fact that people with lower income tend to keep vehicles longer. Adoption dates of emission standards are either estimated from planned implementation or from income levels. We project that global PM emissions range from 1100 Gg to 1360 Gg in 2030, depending on the scenario. An emission decrease is estimated until 2035 because emission standards are implemented and older engines built to lower standards are phased out. From 2010 to 2050, fuel consumption increases in all regions except North America, Europe and Pacific, according to all scenarios. Global emission intensities decrease continuously under all scenarios for the first 30 years due to the introduction of more advanced and cleaner emission standards. This leads to decreasing emissions from most regions. Emissions are expected to increase significantly in only Africa (1.2-3.1% per year). Because we have tied emission

  7. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible

  8. A Global Water Resources Assessment under RCP, SSP, and CMIP5 Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2012-12-01

    A number of reports have been published on climate change impact assessment on global water resources, but earlier studies need to be updated and refined due to three reasons. First, most of earlier studies were based on an old set of IPCC scenarios consists of SRES (green house gas (GHG) emission and socio-economic scenarios) and CMIP3 (climate scenarios consistent with SRES). A new set of IPCC scenarios is being released (Moss et al., 2008) that consists of RCP (GHG emission scenario), SSP (socio-economic scenario), and CMIP5 (climate scenarios consistent with RCP). In order to take the latest achievements in climate modeling, impact assessments should be based on the new scenario. Second, most of earlier studies focused more on the change in water availability (e.g. runoff and discharge), less for change in water use (agricultural, industrial, domestic water use). Because SSP consists of five scenarios delineating substantially different world, water use scenarios should be developed with care reflecting the difference among them. Third, most of earlier studies assessed water availability and use at annual time resolution. This may overlook seasonal and inter-annual shortage of water due to variability in water availability and use. Here we present a novel assessment on global water resources using a global water resources model called H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a,b; 2010). H08 simulates natural water cycle and major human activities, such as water withdrawals and reservoir operation. It estimates water availability and use at daily time interval, which enables to take sub-annual water shortage into account. We first developed water use scenarios for agricultural (irrigation), industrial, and domestic water withdrawal that are consistent with five SSP scenarios. Next, we set up a matrix of scenario combination of RCP, SSP, and CMIP5 for insightful global water resources assessment. Finally we conducted H08 simulation using these scenarios and assessed water

  9. Future drought scenarios for the Greater Alpine Region based on dynamical downscaling experiments.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haslinger, Klaus; Anders, Ivonne; Schöner, Wolfgang

    2014-05-01

    Large scale droughts have major ecologic, agricultural, economic as well as societal impacts by reducing crop yield, producing low flows in river systems or by limiting the public water supply. Under the perspective of rising temperatures and possibly altered precipitation regimes in the upcoming decades due to global climate change, we accomplish an assessment of future drought characteristics for the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) with regional climate model simulations. This study consists of two parts: First, the ability of the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) to simulate drought conditions in the past in space and time is evaluated. Second, an analysis of future drought scenarios for the GAR is conducted. As a drought index the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used. For the evaluation of the Regional Climate Model in the past, simulations driven by ERA-40 are compared to observations. The gridded observational datasets of the HISTALP-database are used for evaluation in the first place. To assess the skill of CCLM, correlation coefficients between the SPEI of model simulations and gridded observations stratified by seasons and time scales are accomplished. For the analysis of future changes in the drought characteristics, four scenario runs are investigated. These are ECHAM5 and HadCM3 driven CCLM runs for the SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The SPEI is calculated spanning both the C20 and the scenario runs and are therefore regarded as transient simulations. Generally, trends to dryer annual mean conditions are apparent in each of the scenario runs, whereas the signal is rather strong in summer, contradicted by winter which shows a slight increase in precipitation north of the Alps. This in turn leads to higher variability of the SPEI in the future, as differences between winter (wetter or no change) and summer (considerably dryer) grow larger.

  10. Viticultural zoning in Portugal: current conditions and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraga, H.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.

    2012-04-01

    Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.

  11. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  12. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  13. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  14. Air Quality Improvements of Increased Integration of Renewables: Solar Photovoltaics Penetration Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duran, P.; Holloway, T.; Brinkman, G.; Denholm, P.; Littlefield, C. M.

    2011-12-01

    Solar photovoltaics (PV) are an attractive technology because they can be locally deployed and tend to yield high production during periods of peak electric demand. These characteristics can reduce the need for conventional large-scale electricity generation, thereby reducing emissions of criteria air pollutants (CAPs) and improving ambient air quality with regard to such pollutants as nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and fine particulates. Such effects depend on the local climate, time-of-day emissions, available solar resources, the structure of the electric grid, and existing electricity production among other factors. This study examines the air quality impacts of distributed PV across the United States Eastern Interconnection. In order to accurately model the air quality impact of distributed PV in space and time, we used the National Renewable Energy Lab's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to form three unique PV penetration scenarios in which new PV construction is distributed spatially based upon economic drivers and natural solar resources. Those scenarios are 2006 Eastern Interconnection business as usual, 10% PV penetration, and 20% PV penetration. With the GridView (ABB, Inc) dispatch model, we used historical load data from 2006 to model electricity production and distribution for each of the three scenarios. Solar PV electric output was estimated using historical weather data from 2006. To bridge the gap between dispatch and air quality modeling, we will create emission profiles for electricity generating units (EGUs) in the Eastern Interconnection from historical Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data. Via those emissions profiles, we will create hourly emission data for EGUs in the Eastern Interconnect for each scenario during 2006. Those data will be incorporated in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. Initial results indicate that PV

  15. The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Liang, Qing; Strahan, Susan E.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

  16. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  17. Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

    PubMed

    Lane, Diana R; Ready, Richard C; Buddemeier, Robert W; Martinich, Jeremy A; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

  18. Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

    PubMed

    Lane, Diana R; Ready, Richard C; Buddemeier, Robert W; Martinich, Jeremy A; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100. PMID:24391717

  19. Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W.

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100. PMID:24391717

  20. Alternative scenarios to meet the demands of sustainable waste management.

    PubMed

    Bovea, M D; Powell, J C

    2006-04-01

    This paper analyses different alternatives for solid waste management that can be implemented to enable the targets required by the European Landfill and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives to be achieved in the Valencian Community, on the east coast of Spain. The methodology applied to evaluate the environmental performance of each alternative is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis has been performed at two levels; first, the emissions accounted for in the inventory stage have been arranged into impact categories to obtain an indicator for each category; and secondly, the weighting of environmental data to a single unit has been applied. Despite quantitative differences between the results obtained with four alternative impact assessment methods, the same preference ranking has been established: scenarios with energy recovery (1v and 2v) achieve major improvements compared to baseline, with scenario 1v being better than 2v for all impact assessment methods except for the EPS'00 method, which obtains better results for scenario 2v. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test some of the assumptions used in the initial life cycle inventory model but none have a significant effect on the overall results. As a result, the best alternative to the existing waste management system can be identified. PMID:16202507

  1. Mortality estimation based on Business as Usual Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos; Barlas, Ceren

    2013-04-01

    Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. Epidemiological studies have shown that these pollutants increase lung cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the concentration of such pollutants in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050), based on a Business as Usual scenario. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). Based on the modeled pollutants concentrations and the UN estimates of population growth in the future, we assessed the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. The premature mortality for people of 30 years and older were estimated using a health impact function using parameters derived from epidemiological studies. Our results suggest that with a Business as Usual scenario, the ratio between mortality and population would increase of ~ 50% by 2050. This ratio, together with the increase of world population, would lead by the year 2050 to 8.9 millions premature deaths, equivalent to 79 millions of YYL.

  2. Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.

    2012-06-01

    The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N2O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N2O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges.

  3. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  4. Rapid detection of HCV genotyping 1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, 3b and 6a in a single reaction using two-melting temperature codes by a real-time PCR-based assay.

    PubMed

    Athar, Muhammad Ammar; Xu, Ye; Xie, Xiaoting; Xu, Zhenxing; Ahmad, Vakil; Hayder, Zulfiqar; Hussain, Syed Sajid; Liao, Yiqun; Li, Qingge

    2015-09-15

    The genotype of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an important indicator for antiviral therapeutic response. We hereby described development of a rapid HCV genotyping approach that enabled the identification of the six most common HCV subtypes of Asia, i.e., 1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, 3b, and 6a, in a single reaction. Using two dual-labeled, self-quenched probes that target the core region of the HCV genome, the exact subtype could be accurately identified by two-melting temperature codes determined from the two respective probes in a real-time PCR assay. Analytical sensitivity studies using armored RNA samples representing each of the six HCV subtypes showed that 5 copies/reaction of HCV RNA could be detected. The assay was evaluated using 244 HCV-positive serum samples and the results were compared with sequencing analysis. Of the 224 samples, subtype 3a (127, 52.3%) was the dominant, followed by 1b (51, 20.9%), 3b (47, 19.3%), 2a (8, 3.3%), 6a (4, 1.6%) and the least was subtype 1a (1, 0.4%). Moreover, 6 (2.5%) mixed infection samples were also detected. These results were fully concordant with sequencing analysis. We concluded that this real-time PCR-based assay could provide a rapid and reliable tool for routine HCV genotyping in most Asian countries.

  5. High Resolution Spectroscopy of A^1B1u ← X^1A_g 8^1_04^1_0 Band of Naphthalene Referenced to AN Optical Frequency Comb

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakashima, Kazuki; Nishiyama, Akiko; Misono, Masatoshi

    2016-06-01

    In the excited vibronic states of naphthalene, there exist various interesting interactions such as intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR), intersystem crossing (ISC), and internal conversion (IC). More than thirty yeas ago, Beck et al. showed that IVR became remarkable when the excess energy exceeded about 2000 cm-1^, ^a. In the present study, we observe Doppler-free two-photon absorption spectra of A^1B1u ← X^1A_g 8^1_04^1_0 band of naphthalene around 34281 cm-1. The excess energy is 2261 cm-1, which is just above the threshold of IVR. Thus we expect this band is suitable to analyze the dynamics in the excited vibronic states. In our experiment, the spectral resolution is about 100 kHz, and rovibronic lines are well-resolved. To decide the transition frequencies, frequency shifts, and spectral linewidths with high accuracy and precision, we employed the comb-referenced Doppler-free two-photon absorption spectroscopic system^b. We proceed to assign the rovibronic lines in ^qQ transition, and to determine molecular constants in the excited vibronic state. ^a S. M. Beck, J. B. Hopkins, D. E. Powers, and R. E. Smalley, J. Chem. Phys. 74, 43(1981). ^b A. Nishiyama, K. Nakashima, A. Matsuba, and M. Misono, J. Mol. Spectrosc. 318, 40 (2015).

  6. Co-segregation of Freiberg's infraction with a familial translocation t(5;7)(p13.3;p22.2) ascertained by a child with cri du chat syndrome and brachydactyly type A1B.

    PubMed

    Myśliwiec, Marta; Panasiuk, Barbara; Dębiec-Rychter, Maria; Iwanowski, Piotr Sebastian; Łebkowska, Urszula; Nowakowska, Beata; Marcinkowska, Anna; Stankiewicz, Pawel; Midro, Alina T

    2015-02-01

    The identification of chromosomal breakpoints in association with human abnormal phenotypes can enable elucidation of gene function. We report on epiphyseal aseptic necrosis of the lesser head of the second metatarsal bone, known as Freiberg's infraction (FI), in two female carriers of the apparently balanced t(5;7)(p13.3;p22.2) ascertained by a 16-year-old girl with cri-du-chat syndrome and unusual skeletal features in association with an unbalanced translocation der(5) t(5;7)(p13.3;p22.2). Mapping of the chromosome breakpoints using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) narrowed them to the coding sequence of ADAMTS12 on chromosome 5p13.3 and SDK1 on 7p22.2. In addition, several skeletal abnormalities classified as brachydactyly type A1B (BDA1B) were present in the proband and in both carriers of t(5;7)(p13.3;p22.2), suggesting a potential role of ADAMTS12 in the development of the BDA1B observed in this family. PMID:25756154

  7. New hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotyping system that allows for identification of HCV genotypes 1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, 3a, 3b, 4, 5a, and 6a.

    PubMed Central

    Ohno, O; Mizokami, M; Wu, R R; Saleh, M G; Ohba, K; Orito, E; Mukaide, M; Williams, R; Lau, J Y

    1997-01-01

    Recent studies have focused on whether different hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes are associated with different profiles of pathogenicity, infectivity, and response to antiviral therapy. The establishment of a simple and precise genotyping system for HCV is essential to address these issues. A new genotyping system based on PCR of the core region with genotype-specific PCR primers for the determination of HCV genotypes 1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, 3a, 3b, 4, 5a, and 6a was developed. A total of 607 samples (379 from Japan, 63 from the United States, 53 from Korea, 35 from Taiwan, 32 from China, 20 from Hong Kong, 15 from Australia, 6 from Egypt, 3 from Bangladesh, and 1 from South Africa) were tested by both the assay of Okamoto et al. (H. Okamoto, Y. Sugiyama, S. Okada, K. Kurai, Y. Akahane, Y. Sugai, T. Tanaka, K. Sato, F. Tsuda, Y. Miyamura, and M. Mayumi, J. Gen. Virol. 73:673-679, 1992) and this new genotyping system. Comparison of the results showed concordant results for 539 samples (88.8%). Of the 68 samples with discordant results, the nucleotide sequences of the HCV isolates were determined in 23, and their genotypes were determined by molecular evolutionary analysis. In all 23 samples, the assignment of genotype by our new genotyping system was correct. This genotyping system may be useful for large-scale determination of HCV genotypes in clinical studies. PMID:8968908

  8. NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Xu, J. Y.; Fu, K.; Klimont, Z.; Hao, J. M.; He, K. B.; Cofala, J.; Amann, M.

    2013-06-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4, 34.0, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64 and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective Catalytic Reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020, and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to

  9. NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Liu, H.; Xu, J. Y.; Fu, K.; Klimont, Z.; Hao, J. M.; He, K. B.; Cofala, J.; Amann, M.

    2013-10-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to

  10. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  11. Investigating the evolution of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with a large number of scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schweizer, V. J.; Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

    2013-12-01

    The new scenario framework for climate change research includes alternative possible trends for socioeconomic development called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs bear some similarities to other scenarios used for global change research, but they also have important differences. Like the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, SSPs are defined by a scenario logic consisting of two axes. However, these axes define SSPs with respect to their location in an outcome space for challenges to mitigation and to adaptation rather than by their drivers. Open questions for the SSPs include what their drivers are and how the time dimension could be interpreted with the outcomes space. We present a new analytical approach for addressing both questions by studying large numbers of scenarios produced by an integrated assessment model, IMACLIM-R. We systematically generated 432 scenarios and used the SSP framework to classify them by typology. We then analyzed them dynamically, tracing their evolution through the SSP challenges space at annual time steps over the period 2010-2090. Through this approach, we found that many scenarios do not remain fixed to a particular SSP domain; they drift from one domain to another. In papers describing the framework for new scenarios, SSPs are envisioned as hypothetical (counter-factual) reference scenarios that remain fixed in one domain over some time period of interest. However, we conclude that it may be important to also research scenarios that shift across SSP domains. This is relevant for another open question, which is what scenarios are important to explore given their consequences. Through a data mining technique, we uncovered prominent drivers for scenarios that shift across SSP domains. Scenarios with different challenges for adaptation and mitigation (that is, mitigation and adaptation challenges that are not co-varying) were found to be the least stable, and the following

  12. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  13. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    PubMed

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  14. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    PubMed

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year. PMID:23487960

  15. On the emission region of gamma ray bursts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liang, E. P.

    1985-01-01

    Within the last few years the rapid accumulation of gamma ray burst spectral data, especially those of KONUS and solar maximum mission, has made the confrontation between theories of the gamma ray emission mechanisms and observations much more urgent and challenging. At present the most viable mode seems to be some combination of inverse Comptonization and synchrotron emission. Here, an attempt is made to limit the acceptable parameter space of the emission region by taking into account the maximum set of observational constraints. These are then applied to two specific scenarios: surface emission versus magnetospheric emission. Some observable predictions based on these scenarios are considered.

  16. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azpeleta, Alicia; Fule, Peter; Shive, Kristen; Sieg, Carolyn; Sanchez-Meador, Andrew; Strom, Barbara

    2013-04-01

    To assess post-fire vegetation recovery under the influence of climate change, we applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multi-species forest of Arizona, U.S.A. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) projections of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon storage. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon storage relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no-treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S.A. management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the

  17. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  18. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  19. Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.

    SciTech Connect

    Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

    2008-08-01

    A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

  20. Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US: Biofuel scenarios from 2000-2030

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, T. O.; Bandaru, V.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Brandt, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    Uniform methods for land use assessment from local to continental scales are important for supporting national policies that focus on local management. In an effort to bridge local and national scales, we have been conducting land-use change research for the continental U.S. and doing so using 56-m resolution land use data. We have recently completed five scenarios of agricultural land-use change that represent a range of plausible biomass feedstock production. The scenarios include meeting targets of the Energy Independence and Security Act; alternative scenarios of only corn grain ethanol versus only cellulosic ethanol production; and alternative scenarios of no ethanol production with current agricultural program incentives versus no ethanol production with no monetary incentives for agricultural practices. These scenarios have implications for carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, water quality, and other environmental variables. These scenarios also represent relevant policy issues that are currently being debated. We will present methods used to estimate future land-use change that include use of the USDA Cropland Data Layer, the POLYSYS agricultural economic model, and the Land Use Carbon Allocation model. We will present results that include spatially-explicit changes in crop rotations associated with the aforementioned biofuel scenarios. Results will consist of acreage changes per crop and the expected geographic location of these changes for years 2000-2030.

  1. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

  2. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions. PMID:16600331

  3. Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

    2007-12-01

    There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

  4. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    PubMed

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  5. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  6. 5-HT1A/1B, 5-HT6, and 5-HT7 serotonergic receptors recruitment in tonic-clonic seizure-induced antinociception: role of dorsal raphe nucleus.

    PubMed

    Freitas, Renato Leonardo; Ferreira, Célio Marcos dos Reis; Urbina, Maria Angélica Castiblanco; Mariño, Andrés Uribe; Carvalho, Andressa Daiane; Butera, Giuseppe; de Oliveira, Ana Maria; Coimbra, Norberto Cysne

    2009-05-01

    Pharmacological studies have been focused on the involvement of different neural pathways in the organization of antinociception that follows tonic-clonic seizures, including 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)-, norepinephrine-, acetylcholine- and endogenous opioid peptide-mediated mechanisms, giving rise to more in-depth comprehension of this interesting post-ictal antinociceptive phenomenon. The present work investigated the involvement of 5-HT(1A/1B), 5-HT(6), and 5-HT(7) serotonergic receptors through peripheral pretreatment with methiothepin at doses of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 mg/kg in the organization of the post-ictal antinociception elicited by pharmacologically (with pentylenetetrazole at 64 mg/kg)-induced tonic-clonic seizures. Methiothepin at 1.0 mg/kg blocked the post-ictal antinociception recorded after the end of seizures, whereas doses of 2.0 and 3.0 mg/kg potentiated the post-ictal antinociception. The nociceptive thresholds were kept higher than those of the control group. However, when the same 5-hydroxytryptamine receptors antagonist was microinjected (at 1.0, 3.0 and 5.0 microg/0.2 microL) in the dorsal raphe nucleus, a mesencephalic structure rich in serotonergic neurons and 5-HT receptors, the post-ictal hypo-analgesia was consistently antagonized. The present findings suggest a dual effect of methiothepin, characterized by a disinhibitory effect on the post-ictal antinociception when peripherally administered (possibly due to an antagonism of pre-synaptic 5-HT(1A) serotonergic autoreceptors in the pain endogenous inhibitory system) and an inhibitory effect (possibly due to a DRN post-synaptic 5-HT(1B), 5-HT(6), and 5-HT(7) serotonergic receptors blockade) when centrally administered. The present data also suggest that serotonin-mediated mechanisms of the dorsal raphe nucleus exert a key-role in the modulation of the post-ictal antinociception.

  7. Immunogenetic profile of psoriasis vulgaris: association with haplotypes A2,B13,Cw6,DR7,DQA1*0201 and A1,B17,Cw6,DR7,DQA1*0201.

    PubMed

    Ikaheimo, I; Silvennoinen-Kassinen, S; Karvonen, J; Jarvinen, T; Tiilikainen, A

    1996-02-01

    Psoriasis vulgaris is a skin disease with an immunological and genetic background present in 1-3% of the population. We studied the genetic susceptibility to psoriasis vulgaris in Finns with serological HLA typing and genomic HLA class II typing of the DQ and DP loci to evaluate the risk of developing psoriasis. The haplotypes most frequently distinguishing between psoriatics and controls were those that carried Cw6 (P < 10(-8)), DQA1*0201 (P = 9.3 x 10(-6)) and DR7 (P = 3.9 x 10(-5)). The two most frequent marker haplotypes were A2,B13,Cw6,DR7, DQA1*0201 and A1,B17,Cw6,DR7,DQA1*0201, which were not found among the control subjects. A deficit of haplotype B8,DR3,DQ2 (2 out of 124 in the patients versus 15 out of 106 in the controls, P = 1.5 x 10(-4)) was found, and this was in accordance with a slightly decreased frequency of DQA1*0501 (P = 3.1 x 10(-2)), which was usually linked with this haplotype. These results stimulate the research for a genetic resistance factor in psoriasis. Thus, this report sheds further light on the immunogenetic background of psoriasis in Finland. We conclude that the inheritance of psoriasis has a polygenic mode, in which the Cw6,DR7,DQA1*0201 combination seems to be important (P = 7.5 x 10(-7), relative risk 24.4, aetiological factor 0.29).

  8. Projected changes of soil organic carbon in agricultural soils of southeast Germany in the 21th century under different carbon input scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiesmeier, Martin; Poeplau, Christopher; Sierra, Carlos; Maier, Harald; Hübner, Rico; Kühnel, Anna; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

    2016-04-01

    As climate change may have a distinct effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, projections of the future SOC development on larger spatial scales on the basis of soil carbon models are needed. In this study we simulated the SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria (southeast Germany) between 2000 and 2095 using the RothC model. At 51 sampling locations detailed model input data as C pools derived by soil fractionation, C input, clay content and climate variables were determined to run the model. Projections for each sampling location were performed on the basis of an average climate scenario (A1B) and three C input scenarios as a realistic range of possible crop yield developments: stagnation of the C input (1) increase by 20% (2) and decrease by 20% (3). The results showed a general decline of SOC stocks of 12% during the 21th century under C input scenario 1 and a decrease of 21% under scenario 3. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario 2 resulted in a noticeable decline of SOC stocks by 5%. Our study indicated that C inputs in agricultural soils of Bavaria have to increase by 30% until 2095 (given the A1B climate scenario) in order to maintain present SOC stocks. However, projected SOC changes largely depended on the soil unit and regional site characteristics. The modeling approach provides the basis for a further evaluation of changes of the land use management and enables a site-specific delineation of measures for a sustainable supply of soil organic matter under climate change.

  9. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

  10. Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

  11. Scenarios over the past 3 decades: air quality impact of European legislation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G. G. A.; Guizzardi, D.; Schaaf, E.; Muntean, M.; Dentener, F. J.; Sindelarova, K.; Granier, C.

    2014-12-01

    The impacts of air pollution span from local to global, affecting human health, climate, visibility and ecosystems. Several actions at national, regional and global scale have been adopted to reduce pollutant emission levels. In our work we make use of the EDGAR_ v4.3 emission database to compare today's pollutant levels with ex-post scenarios developed to assess the impact and effectiveness of legislation over the last 3 decades on air quality and climate. Differently from most of literature works addressing future air quality, here we focus on historical global anthropogenic emissions (years 1970-2010) of several gaseous and particulate air pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC) and past emission scenarios to demonstrate the role that policy has played in improving air quality. Three scenarios have been developed and compared to today's situation (year 2010), assuming the lack of abatement measures, the complete stagnation of technology (no reduction measures applied and constant emission factors from 1970), and a constant fuel mixture (with a more prominent role for coal in the 1970s). Special focus is dedicated to the power generation sector, manufacturing industry and road transport activities since these were mostly influenced by official regulations in the EU. Global SO2 emissions from transport dropped down by 8.5 times due to the deployment of low S content fuels; NOx and CO emissions are indeed a function of combustion efficiency and therefore decreased with the introduction of new technologies, while NH3 emitted by road transport increased in Europe by 18% due to the introduction of catalyzers. Finally, particulate matter emissions are mainly abated by the installation of End-of-Pipe measures (e.g. filters) especially in the energy and transport sectors.

  12. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

  13. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. PMID:26081307

  14. Impacts of Global Climate Change and Emissions on Regional Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations over United States

    SciTech Connect

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Leung, Lai R.; Woo, Jung-Hun; He, Shan; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G.

    2007-07-31

    Simulated future summers (i.e., 2049-2051) and annual (i.e., 2050) average regional O 3 and PM2.5 concentrations over North America are compared with historic (i.e., 2000-2002 summers and all of 2001) levels to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change on regional air quality. Meteorological inputs to the CMAQ chemical transport model are developed by downscaling the GISS Global Climate Model simulations using an MM5-based regional climate model. Future-year emissions for North America are developed by growing the US EPA CAIR inventory, Mexican and Canadian emissions and by using the IMAGE model with the IPCC A1B emissions scenario that is also used in projecting future climate. Reductions of more than 50% in NOX and SO2 emissions are forecast. The impacts of global climate change alone on regional air quality are small compared to impacts from emission control-related reductions in the US and Canada. The combined effect of climate change and emission reductions lead to a 20% decrease (regionally varying from -11% to -28% regionally) in the mean summer maximum daily 8-hr ozone levels (M8hO3) over the US, -8% over Canada and -10% over Northern Mexico. The mean annual PM2.5 concentrations are estimated to be 23% lower (varies from -9% to -32%) over the US, -7% and -15% over Western and Eastern Canada, respectively and -25% over Northern Mexico. Major reductions are expected in sulfate, nitrate and ammonium fractions of annually-averaged PM2.5 for all sub-regions. The limited reduction in organic carbon over the US and Northern Mexico and the higher concentrations over Canada suggests that organic carbon will be the dominant component of PM2.5 mass over most of the continent in the future. Regionally, the Eastern US benefits more than the rest of the regions from reductions in both M8hO3 and PM2.5, due to both spatial variations in the meteorological and emissions changes. Reduction in the higher M8hO3 concentrations is also estimated for all sub

  15. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  16. Estimating efficiency of the controlled sulphur emissions in the stratosphere to mitigate global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Chernokulsky, A. V.; Karpenko, A. A.

    2008-12-01

    An attempt is made to estimate an efficiency of sulphur loading in the stratosphere to mitigate global warming employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (IAP RAS CM). In this ensemble, the model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenical greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860--2100 with an additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere started in 2012. Different ensemble members were constructed by varying emission intensity, residence time and optical properites of stratospheric sulphur. Given global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, at the global basis the most efficient latitudinal distribution of geoengineering aerosols is that peaked between 50° N and 70° N. At regional scale other latitudinal distributions may be superior. In particular, the distributions peaked in the tropics are the most efficient to reduce warming in the subtropics and the distrbutions peaked at 50° N is the superior to mitigate annual warming in Siberia. However, an approach of geoengineering has inherent flaws. First, it results in a widespread dryness. The second, and perhaps more dangerous, issue is due to the fast removal of geoengineering climatic effect if the corresponding emissions are stopped. After this stop, climate trajectory returns to the non--mitigated one within few decades. This results in a necessity to continue a geoengineering mitigation very long in future. Third, estimated sulphur emissions amount 5-10 TgS/yr in 2050 and 10-14 TgS/yr in 2100 which is not a small part of the current emissions of tropospheric sulphates. The latter may lead to marked enhancement of the tropospheric sulphates pollution. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted by making use of an energy--balance climate model. As a whole, the results obtained with this simpler model support conclusions made on

  17. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios.

    PubMed

    Christensen, Thomas H; Simion, Federico; Tonini, Davide; Møller, Jacob

    2009-11-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO(2)-eq.-tonne(-1) of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical-biological waste treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0-400, scenarios with incineration saved 200-700, and scenarios with mechanical-biological treatment saved 200- 750 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) municipal waste depending on recycling scheme and energy recovery. Key parameters were the amount of paper recycled (it was assumed that wood made excessive by paper recycling substituted for fossil fuel), the crediting of the waste management system for the amount of energy recovered (hard-coal-based energy was substituted), and binding of biogenic carbon in landfills. Most other processes were of less importance. Rational waste management can provide significant savings in society's emission of greenhouse gas depending on waste composition and efficient utilization of the energy recovered.

  18. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  19. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  20. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    SciTech Connect

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  1. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. PMID:25108719

  2. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.

  3. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  4. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  5. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    SciTech Connect

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-07-09

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

  6. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2012-12-01

    Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push. In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.

  7. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kodra, Evan A; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  8. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  9. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  10. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  11. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

  12. Megacity impacts on global air quality under present and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.; Stock, Z.; Russo, M.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2011-12-01

    Over half of the population of the world now lives in cities, with the global rate of urbanisation expected to continue well into the 21st century. A significant fraction of this urban population lives in so- called "Megacities", which are commonly defined as urban areas containing more than 10 million people, although there is no formally accepted definition. These shifts in the distribution of population and economic activity are expected to lead to changes in the emissions of atmospheric pollutants, which in turn could be expected to lead to changes in air quality within Megacities, in the regions surrounding Megacities, and perhaps also at the global scale. A global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport is an essential part of any integrated assessment of the effects of megacities at these scales. Global models require global emission inventories as input, along with appropriate emission scenarios. Unfortunately there are very few global emission scenarios available which are explicitly designed to explore differences in projected rates of urbanisation. In this work we examine the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emissions projections which are freely available as part of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project for the IPCC AR5 report). We compare the future projections of Megacity emissions from four different RCP datasets and describe strategies of adapting these RCP projections for the study of Megacity impacts on air quality. Results of global chemical transport model studies examining these projections will also be presented.

  13. Evaluating the environmental impacts of a land use scenario for bioenergy production in the Midwest U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, J.; Twine, T. E.; Hill, J.

    2012-12-01

    A variety of land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios are being developed in the Midwest United States (U.S.) to meet bioenergy production goals. Differences in these scenarios (e.g., maize vs. perennial grass and areal distribution) could result in different impacts to water resources and carbon emissions. Thus it is important to comprehensively evaluate the potential effects of LULC scenarios on the environment. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed one land cover scenario in the Midwest U.S. to meet the projected bioenergy production demands in 2020. In this study we use Agro-IBIS, a global dynamic ecosystem model, to evaluate how this scenario might affect future water and carbon budgets. The model represents a wide range of processes including leaf and canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics, and nutrient cycling in both natural and managed ecosystems. The model is capable of simulating crop growth and behavior by taking into account management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. By comparing the simulation results from the current land cover and future land cover scenario, we evaluate the potential impact on regional hydrology, carbon sequestration, and biomass production as a result of this particular scenario's land cover change. Future work will evaluate additional scenarios and could contribute to improvements in scenario development.

  14. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  15. Implications of diesel emissions control failures to emission factors and road transport NOx evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ntziachristos, Leonidas; Papadimitriou, Giannis; Ligterink, Norbert; Hausberger, Stefan

    2016-09-01

    Diesel NOx emissions have been at the forefront of research and regulation scrutiny as a result of failures of late vehicle technologies to deliver on-road emissions reductions. The current study aims at identifying the actual emissions levels of late light duty vehicle technologies, including Euro 5 and Euro 6 ones. Mean NOx emission factor levels used in the most popular EU vehicle emission models (COPERT, HBEFA and VERSIT+) are compared with latest emission information collected in the laboratory over real-world driving cycles and on the road using portable emissions measurement systems (PEMS). The comparison shows that Euro 5 passenger car (PC) emission factors well reflect on road levels and that recently revealed emissions control failures do not call for any significant corrections. However Euro 5 light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and Euro 6 PCs in the 2014-2016 period exhibit on road emission levels twice as high as used in current models. Moreover, measured levels vary a lot for Euro 6 vehicles. Scenarios for future evolution of Euro 6 emission factors, reflecting different degree of effectiveness of emissions control regulations, show that total NOx emissions from diesel Euro 6 PC and LCV may correspond from 49% up to 83% of total road transport emissions in 2050. Unless upcoming and long term regulations make sure that light duty diesel NOx emissions are effectively addressed, this will have significant implications in meeting future air quality and national emissions ceilings targets.

  16. Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

  17. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  18. Analysis of the change in temperature trends in Subansiri River basin for RCP scenarios using CMIP5 datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shivam; Goyal, Manish Kumar; Sarma, Arup Kumar

    2016-06-01

    This study focuses on changes in the maximum and minimum temperature over the Subansiri River basin for different climate change scenarios. For the study, dataset from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) (i.e., coupled model intercomparison project phase five (CMIP5) dataset with representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios) were utilized. Long-term (2011-2100) maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (Tmin) time series were generated using the statistical downscaling technique for low emission scenario (RCP2.6), moderate emission scenario (RCP6.0), and extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5). Trends and change of magnitude in T max, T min, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were analyzed for different interdecadal time scales (2011-2100, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2070-2100) using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator, respectively. The temperature data series for the observed duration (1981-2000) has been found to show increasing trends in T max and T min at both annual and monthly scale. Trend analysis of downscaled temperature for the period 2011-2100 shows increase in annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature for all the selected RCP scenarios; however, on the monthly scale, T max and T min have been seen to have decreasing trends in some months.

  19. Low Energy, Low Emissions: Sulfur Dioxide; Nitrogen Oxides, and Carbon Dioxide in Western Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alcamo, Joseph; De Vries, Bert

    1992-01-01

    Links proposed low-energy scenarios for different Western European countries with the amount of pollutants that may result from these scenarios. Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated for the 10 countries for which low-energy scenarios are available, resulting in reductions of 54%, 37%, and 40%, respectively.…

  20. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gernaat, David; Calvin, Katherine V.; Lucas, Paul; Luderer, Gunnar; Otto, Sander; Rao, Shilpa; Strefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-07-01

    The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In order to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, less reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.

  1. A Scenario for the Future of Museums

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunningham, Mary Kay

    2009-01-01

    More than any other staff member, museum educators' knowledge and experience working with visitors make them uniquely qualified to take on leadership roles as museums transform themselves into lifelong learning organizations. The article encourages museum educators to initiate discussions about change by offering a fictional scenario of future…

  2. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  3. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  4. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  5. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  6. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  7. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  8. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  9. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  10. Climate change scenarios for the North American monsoon using CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavazos, T.; Torres, A.; Arriaga-Ramirez, S.

    2012-12-01

    Regional climate change scenarios the North American monsoon (NAM) were produced as part of the Baja California State Climate Change Action Program (PEACC-BC). Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled scenarios (BCSD) from six general circulation models (GCMs) with 12 realizations were analyzed for two IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios: B1 and A2 during the 21st century. A validation of the original GCM realizations and the BCSD scenarios with observed data during 1961-1990 shows that the ensemble GCM produces a delay of the summer monsoon and too much precipitation during autumn and winter, while the ensemble BCSD considerably improves the annual cycles and spatial distributions of precipitation and temperature in the region. An ensemble of 6 CMIP5 models shows an improvement of the summer monsoon rains during the observational period, but still produces a wet and cool bias during autumn and winter. BCSD scenarios of temperature and precipitation during the 21st century were evaluated based on the multi-model median change relative to 1961-1990. The A2 scenarios show the largest reductions of precipitation in the last twenty years of the 21st century; the precipitation in the NAM region could be weakened by 20%, during winter, spring, and summer. After 2050, a significant reduction of precipitation is expected in northwest Mexico and the southwest United States south of 35oN, and temperature changes larger than 2oC warming. Changes in precipitation, temperature and circulation of the monsoon were also evaluated using the new RCP85 scenarios of a multi-model ensemble of 6 CMIP5 models for the 2075-2099 relative to 1979-2005. The temperature changes are similar in both CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios. However, CMIP5 precipitation scenarios show small annual precipitation changes and large uncertainties, especially during the summer. A significant reduction of rainfall is projected for spring, as in the CMIP3; in contrast, the CMIP5 ensemble shows increases of precipitation

  11. Impact of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Indonesia: NO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Susandi, A.

    2004-12-01

    In this study, we develop scenarios of total air pollution from fossil fuel consumption and its impacts for the 21st century, using an inter-temporal general equilibrium model MERGE. The Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects of greenhouse gas reduction policies (MERGE) is used to project energy consumption and production. We use the base scenarios from IPCC (2000). These scenarios assume that no measures are undertaken to control greenhouse gas emissions. We extend the IPCC scenarios with mitigation scenarios, estimating the air pollution impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction. The MERGE model was extended to analyze emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), their concentrations, impacts on human health, and economic valuation. To estimate of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) impacts on respiratory symptoms, we calculated the NO2 concentration as derived from nitrogen oxide (NOx). In the baseline scenario, the concentrations of NO2 are rising to 2,263 μg/m3 in 2100. If the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries reduce their emissions, respiratory symptoms among adult's associated with NO2 case would reach the highest to 65,741% of adult population cases by the end of century. If all countries reduce their emission in the future, the total health problem cost associated with NO2 will lower 35% of GDP than in the baseline scenario during the century.

  12. Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the stratosphere: dependence of required emissions on allowable residual warming rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, Alexey V.; Chernokulsky, Alexandr V.; Karpenko, Andrey A.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2010-07-01

    An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860-2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50° N and 70° N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000-2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4-14 TgS/year (2-7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air

  13. Mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture under climate change constrains - a case study for the State of Saxony, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haas, E.; Kiese, R.; Klatt, S.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

    2012-12-01

    Mitigating greenhouse gas (N2O, CO2, CH4) emissions from agricultural soils under conditions of projected climate change (IPCC SRES scenarios) is a prerequisite to limit global warming. In this study we used the recently developed regional biogeochemical ecosystem model LandscapeDNDC (Haas et al., 2012, Landscape Ecology) and two time slices for present day (1998 - 2018) and future climate (2078-2098) (regional downscale of IPCC SRES A1B climate simulation) and compared a business as usual agricultural management scenario (winter rape seed - winter barley - winter wheat rotation; fertilization: 170 / 150 / 110 kg-N mineral fertilizer; straw harvest barley/wheat: 90 %) with scenarios where either one or all of the following options were realized: no-till, residue return to fields equal 100%, reduction of fertilization rate s were left on the field or reduction of N fertilization by 10%. The spatial domain is the State of Saxony (1 073 523 hectares of arable land), a typical region for agricultural production in Central Europe. The simulations are based on a high resolution polygonal datasets (5 517 agricultural grid cells) for which relevant information on soil properties is available. The regionalization of the N2O emissions was validated against the IPCC Tier I methodology resulting in N2O emissions of 1 824 / 1 610 / 1 180 [t N2O-N yr-1] for of the baseline years whereas the simulations results in 6 955 / 6 039 / 2 207 [t N2O-N yr-1] for the first three years of the baseline scenarios and ranging between 621 and 6 955 [t N2O-N yr-1] within the following years (mean of 2 923). The influence of climate change (elevated mean temperature of approx. 2°C and minor changes in precipitation) results in an increase of 259 [t N2O-N yr-1] (mean 3 182) or approx. 9 percent on average (with a minimum of 618 and a maximum of 6 553 [t N2O-N yr-1]). Focusing on the mitigation , the recarbonization did result in an increase of soil carbon stocks of 2 585 [kg C/ha] within the

  14. Impacts of Disturbances, Management and Climate Change on Carbon Dynamics and N2O and CH4 Emissions from 1992 to 2050 in the US Great Plains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, S.; li, Z.; Liu, J.; Chen, M.; Gleason, R.; Grangaard, L.; Young, C. J.; Schmidt, G.; Oeding, J.; Davis, B.; Zhu, Z.; Dahal, D.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.; Sohl, T. L.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Sleeter, B. M.

    2011-12-01

    Natural disturbance, land management, and climate change strongly affect greenhouse gas (GHG) (CO2, CH4 and N2O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems. Our understanding of current and future GHG emissions at regional to global scales are limited by (1) the scarcity of geospatial data layers characterizing the spatial and temporal change patterns of disturbances and management practices, and (2) the lack of adequate modeling systems that can well represent multiple controlling processes especially those relevant to disturbance and management. As a part of the USGS effort (LandCarbon) to assess ecosystem potentials for carbon sequestration and GHG emission reduction across the United States, we created and synthesized many geospatial data layers on climate change, land cover change, disturbance and land management. Furthermore, we simulated the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen of the Great Plains from 1992-2050 using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Land-cover change information was systematically generated using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of future land cover (FORE-SCE) model with reference to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1), the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), US Land Cover Trends product, and the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) products. Natural disturbances (e.g., fire, insects, and hurricanes), major management practices (i.e., crop rotation, tillage, etc.) and other relevant information (e.g., atmospheric nitrogen deposition) were constructed based on historical observations and models (e.g., The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE)). The GEMS outputs include the carbon pool changes in vegetation, soils, and wood products; the GHG emissions and their global warming potentials, and the lateral movements of carbon and nitrogen caused by soil erosion and deposition. Our results indicated that annual change of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems

  15. Future trends of global atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Junrui; Tian, Hezhong; Zhu, Chuanyong; Hao, Jiming; Gao, Jiajia; Wang, Yong; Xue, Yifeng; Hua, Shenbin; Wang, Kun

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents the scenario forecast of global atmospheric antimony (Sb) emissions from anthropogenic activities till 2050. The projection scenarios are built based on the comprehensive global antimony emission inventory for the period 1995-2010 which is reported in our previous study. Three scenarios are set up to investigate the future changes of global antimony emissions as well as their source and region contribution characteristics. Trends of activity levels specified as 5 primary source categories are projected by combining the historical trend extrapolation with EIA International energy outlook 2013, while the source-specific dynamic emission factors are determined by applying transformed normal distribution functions. If no major changes in the efficiency of emission control are introduced and keep current air quality legislations (Current Legislation scenario), global antimony emissions will increase by a factor of 2 between 2010 and 2050. The largest increase in Sb emissions is projected from Asia due to large volume of nonferrous metals production and waste incineration. In case of enforcing the pollutant emission standards (Strengthened Control scenario), global antimony emissions in 2050 will stabilize with that of 2010. Moreover, we can anticipate further declines in Sb emissions for all continents with the best emission control performances (Maximum Feasible Technological Reduction scenario). Future antimony emissions from the top 10 largest emitting countries have also been calculated and source category contributions of increasing emissions of these countries present significant diversity. Furthermore, global emission projections in 2050 are distributed within a 1° × 1°latitude/longitude grid. East Asia, Western Europe and North America present remarkable differences in emission intensity under the three scenarios, which implies that source-and-country specific control measures are necessary to be implemented for abating Sb emissions from

  16. On strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    PubMed Central

    Bolin, Bert; Kheshgi, Haroon S.

    2001-01-01

    Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO2 emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO2 emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them. PMID:11296250

  17. On strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Bolin, B; Kheshgi, H S

    2001-04-24

    Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO(2) emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO(2) at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO(2) emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO(2) concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them.

  18. On strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Bolin, B; Kheshgi, H S

    2001-04-24

    Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO(2) emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO(2) at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO(2) emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO(2) concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them. PMID:11296250

  19. How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

    2009-07-01

    -style development path would avoid 430 million tonnes coal-equivalent energy use by 2025. More than 60% of these energy savings would come from reduced activity and production levels. In carbon terms, this would amount to more than a billion-tonne reduction of energy-related carbon emissions compared with the BAU scenario in 2025, though the absolute level of emissions rises in both scenarios. Aside from the energy and carbon savings related to CLU scenario development, this study showed impending saturation effects in commercial construction, urban appliance ownership, and fertilizer application. The implication of these findings is that urbanization will have a direct impact on future energy use and emissions - policies to guide urban growth can play a central role in China's efforts to mitigate emissions growth.

  20. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  1. Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China.

    PubMed

    Matsumoto, Ken'ichi

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks. PMID:26660094

  2. Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China

    PubMed Central

    Matsumoto, Ken’ichi

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks. PMID:26660094

  3. Predicted Megafire Locations under Future Climate Scenarios in the Contiguous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorentz, K. A.; Drury, S.; Raffuse, S. M.; Larkin, N. K.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past several years, large high-intensity wildfires, or "megafires," have set records for the greatest burn area and most costly fires in several U.S. states. Megafires can release many tons of fine particles and other pollutants that are hazardous to human health over a short period of time. Under future climate scenarios, megafires may increase in some regions. The danger of smoke exposure from megafires in the future depends on several spatial factors, including the likelihood of megafire occurrence, emission rates, air transport patterns, and population density. We combined climatological transport modeling, smoke emission rates, and population density to determine the areas within the U.S. where a megafire would result in the greatest human exposure to smoke. Coupled with a synthesis of recent studies on the likelihood of megafire occurrence under future climate scenarios, these results provide a view of future smoke management and emergency response needs.

  4. Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China.

    PubMed

    Matsumoto, Ken'ichi

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks.

  5. Seed photon fields of blazars in the internal shock scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Joshi, M.; Marscher, A. P.; Böttcher, M.

    2014-04-20

    We extend our approach of modeling spectral energy distribution (SED) and light curves of blazars to include external Compton (EC) emission due to inverse Compton scattering of an external anisotropic target radiation field. We describe the time-dependent impact of such seed photon fields on the evolution of multifrequency emission and spectral variability of blazars using a multi-zone time-dependent leptonic jet model, with radiation feedback, in the internal shock model scenario. We calculate accurate EC-scattered high-energy (HE) spectra produced by relativistic electrons throughout the Thomson and Klein-Nishina regimes. We explore the effects of varying the contribution of (1) a thermal Shakura-Sunyaev accretion disk, (2) a spherically symmetric shell of broad-line clouds, the broad-line region (BLR), and (3) a hot infrared emitting dusty torus (DT), on the resultant seed photon fields. We let the system evolve to beyond the BLR and within the DT and study the manifestation of the varying target photon fields on the simulated SED and light curves of a typical blazar. The calculations of broadband spectra include effects of γ-γ absorption as γ-rays propagate through the photon pool present inside the jet due to synchrotron and inverse Compton processes, but neglect γ-γ absorption by the BLR and DT photon fields outside the jet. Thus, our account of γ-γ absorption is a lower limit to this effect. Here, we focus on studying the impact of parameters relevant for EC processes on HE emission of blazars.

  6. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  7. Evaluation of Future Precipitation Scenario Using Statistical Downscaling MODEL over Three Climatic Region of Nepal Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigdel, M.

    2014-12-01

    Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling precipitation in the three climatic regions such as humid, sub-humid and arid region of Nepal Himalaya. The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP reanalysis data, the validation of the model and the outputs of downscaled scenarios A2 (high green house gases emission) and B2 (low green house gases emission) of the HadCM3 model for the future. Under both scenarios H3A2 and H3B2, during the prediction period of 2010-2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the three climatic regions would present a tendency of surplus of precipitation as compared to the mean values of the base period. On the average for all three climatic regions of Nepal the annual mean precipitation would increase by about 13.75% under scenario H3A2 and increase near about 11.68% under scenario H3B2 in the 2050s. For the 2080s there would be increase of 8.28% and 13.30% under H3A2 and H3B2 respectively compared to the base period.

  8. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  9. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  10. Curvaton scenarios with inflaton decays into curvatons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrnes, Christian T.; Cortês, Marina; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2016-09-01

    We consider the possible decay of the inflaton into curvaton particles during reheating and analyze its effect on curvaton scenarios. Typical decay curvatons are initially relativistic then become nonrelativistic, changing the background history of the Universe. We show that this change to the background is the only way in which observational predictions of the scenario are modified. Moreover, once the required amplitude of perturbations is fixed by observation there are no signatures of such decays in other cosmological observables. The decay curvatons can prevent the Universe from becoming dominated by the curvaton condensate, making it impossible to match observations in parts of parameter space. This constrains the branching ratio of the inflaton to curvaton to be less than of order 0.1 typically. If the branching ratio is below about 10-4 it has negligible impact on the model parameter space and can be ignored.

  11. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  12. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  13. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  14. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity. PMID:26420396

  15. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  16. Sampling and counting genome rearrangement scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Even for moderate size inputs, there are a tremendous number of optimal rearrangement scenarios, regardless what the model is and which specific question is to be answered. Therefore giving one optimal solution might be misleading and cannot be used for statistical inferring. Statistically well funded methods are necessary to sample uniformly from the solution space and then a small number of samples are sufficient for statistical inferring. Contribution In this paper, we give a mini-review about the state-of-the-art of sampling and counting rearrangement scenarios, focusing on the reversal, DCJ and SCJ models. Above that, we also give a Gibbs sampler for sampling most parsimonious labeling of evolutionary trees under the SCJ model. The method has been implemented and tested on real life data. The software package together with example data can be downloaded from http://www.renyi.hu/~miklosi/SCJ-Gibbs/ PMID:26452124

  17. Effective scenario of loop quantum cosmology.

    PubMed

    Ding, You; Ma, Yongge; Yang, Jinsong

    2009-02-01

    Semiclassical states in isotropic loop quantum cosmology are employed to show that the improved dynamics has the correct classical limit. The effective Hamiltonian for the quantum cosmological model with a massless scalar field is thus obtained, which incorporates also the next to leading order quantum corrections. The possibility that the higher order correction terms may lead to significant departure from the leading order effective scenario is revealed. If the semiclassicality of the model is maintained in the large scale limit, there are great possibilities for a k=0 Friedmann expanding universe to undergo a collapse in the future due to the quantum gravity effect. Thus the quantum bounce and collapse may contribute a cyclic universe in the new scenario.

  18. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

  19. Tethered Capturing Scenarios in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keramati Nigjeh, Behzad; Trivailo, Pavel; Blanksby, Chris

    To-date, a few actuation methods have been presented which enable zero differential velocity rendezvous for the tip of a space tether and a payload. Some researchers in the field have also investigated the futuristic, ambitious, tethered capturing scenarios for interplanetary transfers. This paper investigates some new and beneficial tethered space capturing scenarios, which can be implemented for near-term space mass/momentum transfer missions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), by using currently available technology and resources. Zero differential velocity capture could be achieved by initiating a swinging motion in the tether before rendezvous. The lack of significant damping forces in space, means the swinging motion continues after capture, which is extremely undesirable for the retrieval phase and poses a serious danger for the platform as the payload approaches to it. Although exploiting space propulsion on the capturing device at the tip of the tether could stop the swinging motion of the tether directly after the capture, another alternative presented in this paper is to use the space propulsion to boost the payload to the same orbit as the platform. This has the benefit of dramatically reducing fuel consumption and accomplishment of the retrieval phase with low risk of impact to the platform. The numerical methods utilized in the dynamic simulation have been used to evaluate the efficiency of the tethered capturing scenarios mentioned above in comparison to the direct space capture and ideal Hohmann orbit transfer. The payload mass addition to the tip of the elastic tether at capture causes a longitudinal vibration mode (Bobbing mode) in the tether. Since the structural damping in the tether is negligible, a precise length rate/tension control could be used to dampen this mode in the first semi-period, demolishing any subsequent tension peak. This is a new mathematical non-linear control scheme, which is described for tension mitigation and damping of Bobbing

  20. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  1. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes. PMID:27733963

  2. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  3. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  4. Electroweak Gauge-Higgs Unification Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Hosotani, Yutaka

    2008-11-23

    In the gauge-Higgs unification scenario 4D Higgs fields are unified with gauge fields in higher dimensions. The electroweak model is constructed in the Randall-Sundrum warped space. The electroweak symmetry is dynamically broken by the Hosotani mechanism due to the top quark contribution. The Higgs mass is predicted to be around 50 GeV with the vanishing ZZH and WWH couplings so that the LEP2 bound for the Higgs mass is evaded.

  5. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa.

    PubMed

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several "day to day" clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  6. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    PubMed Central

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  7. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  8. Ammonia emissions in Europe, part II: How ammonia emission abatement strategies affect secondary aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Backes, Anna M.; Aulinger, Armin; Bieser, Johannes; Matthias, Volker; Quante, Markus

    2016-02-01

    In central Europe, ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate make up a large fraction of fine particles which pose a threat to human health. Most studies on air pollution through particulate matter investigate the influence of emission reductions of sulphur- and nitrogen oxides on aerosol concentration. Here, we focus on the influence of ammonia (NH3) emissions. Emission scenarios have been created on the basis of the improved ammonia emission parameterization implemented in the SMOKE for Europe and CMAQ model systems described in part I of this study. This includes emissions based on future European legislation (the National Emission Ceilings) as well as a dynamic evaluation of the influence of different agricultural sectors (e.g. animal husbandry) on particle formation. The study compares the concentrations of NH3, NH4+, NO3 -, sulphur compounds and the total concentration of particles in winter and summer for a political-, technical- and behavioural scenario. It was found that a reduction of ammonia emissions by 50% lead to a 24% reduction of the total PM2.5 concentrations in northwest Europe. The observed reduction was mainly driven by reduced formation of ammonium nitrate. Moreover, emission reductions during winter had a larger impact than during the rest of the year. This leads to the conclusion that a reduction of the ammonia emissions from the agricultural sector related to animal husbandry could be more efficient than the reduction from other sectors due to its larger share in winter ammonia emissions.

  9. Vietnam's Forest Transition in Retrospect: Demonstrating Weaknesses in Business-as-Usual Scenarios for REDD+

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2015-05-01

    One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

  10. Vietnam's forest transition in retrospect: demonstrating weaknesses in business-as-usual scenarios for REDD.

    PubMed

    Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2015-05-01

    One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

  11. Vietnam's forest transition in retrospect: demonstrating weaknesses in business-as-usual scenarios for REDD.

    PubMed

    Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2015-05-01

    One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios. PMID:25588807

  12. Estimation of light duty vehicle emissions in Islamabad and climate co-benefits of improved emission standards implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, Izhar Hussain; Zeeshan, Muhammad

    2016-02-01

    Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) hold a major share in Islamabad's vehicle fleet and their contribution towards air pollution has not been analyzed previously. Emissions for the base year (2014) and two optimistic 'what-if' scenarios were estimated by using the International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) model. Considering the recent implementation of Euro II as emission standard in Pakistan, scenario 1 assumed entire LDV fleet meeting at least Euro II standards while scenario 2 assumed all LDVs meeting Euro IV standards except motorcycles which would be meeting Euro III emission standards. Higher average age for all vehicles and lower share of Euro compliant vehicles was found in the base case. Low engine stress mode (lower speeds with frequent decelerations) was observed for all vehicles especially on arterials and residential roads. Highest overall emissions (59%) were observed on arterials, followed by residential roads (24%) and highways (17%) with higher emissions observed during morning (8-10 am) and evening (4-6 pm) rush hours. Composite emission factors were also calculated. Results reveal that 1094, 147, 11.1, 0.2 and 0.4 kt of CO2, CO, NOx, SO2 and PM10 respectively were emitted in 2014 by LDVs. Compared with the base year, scenario 1 showed a reduction of 9%, 69%, 73%, 13% and 31%, while scenario 2 exhibited a reduction of 5%, 92%, 90%, 92% and 81% for CO2, CO, NOx, SO2 and PM10 respectively. As compared to the base year, a 20 year CO2-equivalent Global Warming Potential (GWP) reduced by 55% and 64% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively, while a 100 year GWP reduced by 40% and 44% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively. Our results demonstrated significant co-benefits that could be achieved in emission reduction and air quality improvement in the city by vehicle technology implementation.

  13. Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Seiple, Timothy E.; Newsom, Rob K.; Allwine, K Jerry

    2006-09-26

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period, April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.

  14. Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paasonen, Pauli; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Klimont, Zbigniew; Visschedijk, Antoon; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; Amann, Markus

    2016-06-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios