Science.gov

Sample records for a1b sres scenario

  1. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  2. Projected dynamics of abiotic risks in boreal forest ecosystems (SRES A1B, B1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panferov, O.; Ahrends, B.; Doering, C.; Sogachev, A.

    2009-04-01

    The ongoing climate change causes an increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008), which can result in wide area damage events (drought, windthrows/breaks) within boreal forest ecosystem. The damage effects, however, depend not only on the strength of a driving force itself (e.g. wind speed) but also on combinations of effecting agents and forest structure. Thus, the present study investigates the projected future developments of abiotic risks in different boreal forests during the 21st Century under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2°, using daily time- steps. With these input data the small-scale modelling with coupled process based sub-models (Jansen et al., 2008) was carried out e.g. for Solling region, (Germany) calculating the water and energy balance of forest ecosystems with modified BROOK 90 (Ahrends et al., 2009) and wind loading on trees with 3D ABL model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008). Norway spruce and Scots pine of various ages were chosen as typical tree species for boreal forest ecosystems and cambisols, podzolic cambisols and stagnosols as typical soil types. The risks of drought and windthrow/breaks for a certain forest stand result from daily combinations of soil water characteristics, static and gust wind loads and soil texture. Damaged stands show higher vulnerability and thus - positive feedback to climate forcing (Vygodskaya et al., 2008). Therefore differences of microclimatological conditions in the remaining stand after changes in forest structure (Radler et al, 2008) were taken into account. Modell output was aggregated to 30-years periods and compared to "present conditions" of 1981-2010. The results show an increment of drought risks towards 2100 caused by changes in precipitation pattern and increase of mean air temperature, whereas the A1B scenario is

  3. Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jae-Bum; Cha, Jun-Seok; Hong, Sung-Chul; Choi, Jin-Young; Myoung, Ji-Su; Park, Rokjin J.; Woo, Jung-Hun; Ho, Changhoi; Han, Jin-Seok; Song, Chang-Keun

    2015-04-01

    We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global-regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996-2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4-0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016-2025 (the 2020s), 2046-2055 (the 2050s), and 2091-2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2-8 ppb, -3 to 8 ppb, and -7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.

  4. A coupled model study on the intensification of the Asian summer monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Min

    2005-11-01

    The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered. Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations (1860-1990) and projected into the future (1990-2100) according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, Nakićenović et al., 2000) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.

  5. Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia: An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B.

    PubMed

    Mihailović, D T; Drešković, N; Arsenić, I; Ćirić, V; Djurdjević, V; Mimić, G; Pap, I; Balaž, I

    2016-11-15

    We considered temporal and spatial variations to the thermal and moisture regimes of the most common RSGs (Reference Soil Groups) in Serbia under the A1B scenario for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to the 1961-1990 period. We utilized dynamically downscaled global climate simulations from the ECHAM5 model using the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model). We analysed the soil temperature and moisture time series using simple statistics and a Kolmogorov complexity (KC) analysis. The corresponding metrics were calculated for 150 sites. In the future, warmer and drier regimes can be expected for all RSGs in Serbia. The calculated soil temperature and moisture variations include increases in the mean annual soil temperature (up to 3.8°C) and decreases in the mean annual soil moisture (up to 11.3%). Based on the KC values, the soils in Serbia are classified with respect to climate change impacts as (1) less sensitive (Vertisols, Umbrisols and Dystric Cambisols) or (2) more sensitive (Chernozems, Eutric Cambisols and Planosols). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance. PMID:28052080

  7. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    PubMed

    Cummings, Christopher L; Kuzma, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  8. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  9. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  10. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  11. High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

  12. Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

    2016-04-01

    In order to design adaptive strategies to global change we need to assess the future impact of climate change on water resources, which depends on precipitation and temperature series in the systems. The objective of this work is to generate future climate series in the "Alto Genil" Basin (southeast Spain) for the period 2071-2100 by perturbing the historical series using different statistical methods. For this targeted we use information coming from regionals climate model simulations (RCMs) available in two European projects, CORDEX (2013), with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, and ENSEMBLES (2009), with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The historical climate series used for the period 1971-2000 have been obtained from Spain02 project (2012) which has the same spatial resolution that CORDEX project (both use the EURO-CORDEX grid). Two emission scenarios have been considered: the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the A1B emission scenario of fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We use the RCM simulations to create an ensemble of predictions weighting their information according to their ability to reproduce the main statistic of the historical climatology. A multi-objective analysis has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to the cited statistic of the historical series. The ensemble of the CORDEX and the ENSEMBLES projects has been finally created with nine and four models respectively. These ensemble series have been used to assess the anomalies in mean and standard deviation (differences between the control and future RCM series). A "delta-change" method (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2011) has been applied to define future series by modifying the historical climate series in accordance with the cited anomalies in mean and standard deviation. A

  13. Forecasting Land-Use and Land-Cover in the Great Plains Using Scenario-Based Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouchard, M. A.; Sohl, T. L.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sayler, K.; Reker, R.; Zhu, Z.

    2011-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey LandCarbon project is assessing potential carbon storage under various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). As part of this assessment, the FORE-SCE (FOREcasting SCEnarios of future land cover) model is being used to project land use and land cover (LULC) change annually through 2050. Downscaled IPCC scenarios were used to project LULC change by Omernik Level II Ecoregions, beginning with the Great Plains. Scenarios consistent with SRES storylines A1B, A2, B1, and B2 were developed using the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE), historical land-use histories from the USGS Land Cover Trends project, and workshops of land-use experts. The FORE-SCE model was then used to create spatially explicit LULC maps at a 250-meter pixel resolution to show differences in projected land cover change between scenarios. Economically-based storylines had large increases in agriculture and a loss of natural land covers due to the high demand for agricultural commodities. Environmentally-based scenarios had stable to slight increases in wetlands and grasslands due to conservation of natural land cover. This poster will present maps and results of scenario-based LULC change for the Great Plains.

  14. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  15. Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

    Treesearch

    A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

    2011-01-01

    Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

  16. Future changes in precipitation of the baiu season under RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, the relationship between global warming and rainfall during the rainy season, which called the baiu in Japan, has been attracting attention in association with heavy rainfall in this period. In the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century, many studies show a delay in the northward march of the baiu front, and significant increase of daily precipitation amounts around western Japan during the late baiu season (e.g., Kusunoki et al. 2011, Kanada et al. 2012). The future climate experiment in these studies was performed under the IPCC SRES A1B scenarios for global warming conditions. In this study, we discuss the future changes in precipitation using calculated 60km-mesh model (MRI-AGCM3.2H) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). These dataset are calculated by setting the Yoshimura (YS) scheme mainly.Seasonal progression of future precipitation generally indicates the northward in RCP2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, around western Japan. In RCP6.0 scenario, precipitation intensity is weak compared to the other scenarios. RCP8.5 scenario is calculated by setting three different cumulus schemes (YS, Arakawa-Schubert (AS), and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes). RCP8.5 configured in YS scheme showed that the rainband associated with the baiu front is not clear. Moreover, peak is remarkable during late June. In AS scheme, the precipitation area stagnates around 30 N until August. And it in KF scheme shows gradual northward migration.This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

  17. Incidence, risk factors and prognostic characteristics of bone metastases and skeletal-related events (SREs) in breast cancer patients: A systematic review of the real world data.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hongwei; Zhu, Wei; Biskup, Ewelina; Yang, Weige; Yang, Ziang; Wang, Hong; Qiu, Xiaochun; Zhang, Chengjiao; Hu, Guangxia; Hu, Guangfu

    2018-06-01

    The aim was to systematically extrapolate the occurrence, risk factors, prognostic characteristics, management and outcome of bone metastases (BM) and skeletal related events (SREs) of breast cancer survivors in the real world clinical setting. A systematic literature search of PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE OvidSP and EBSCO Academic Search Complete was conducted. Published prospective and retrospective papers investigating BM and SREs in breast cancer patients in non-trial settings were identified and systematically reviewed. Twenty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. Incidences of BM based on new diagnosis, length of BM-free interval (BMFI) and number and sites of BM were detected by 17 of 24 studies. Seven studies included in the review were subjected to analyses of risk factors for BM. Developments of SREs regarding the occurrence ratio of total and specific SREs, SERs-free interval (SREFI) and the first-line therapy for SREs were observed in 16 of 24 studies. Out of 5 studies, we extracted uni- and multivariate analysis of risk factor for SREs and out of 16 studies - predictors for survival in breast cancer patients with BM. BM and SREs are common problems in non-trial breast cancer populations. Patient demographics, clinical stage, tumor pathological type, molecular receptors status are significantly risk factors for incidence of BM, SREs and the survival. The unique characteristics of BM and SREs in breast cancer patients should be taken into account in future randomized controlled trials, as to optimize individual treatment options and assure a maximally long good quality of life.

  18. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration

  19. 76 FR 56637 - Airworthiness Directives; Lycoming Engines Model IO-720-A1B Reciprocating Engines

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-14

    ... Airworthiness Directives; Lycoming Engines Model IO-720-A1B Reciprocating Engines AGENCY: Federal Aviation... directive (AD) for certain model IO-720-A1B Lycoming Engines reciprocating engines. This AD requires a... crankshaft due to incorrect parts installed. We are issuing this AD to prevent engine crankshaft failure and...

  20. In vivo disposition of doxorubicin is affected by mouse Oatp1a/1b and human OATP1A/1B transporters.

    PubMed

    Durmus, Selvi; Naik, Jyoti; Buil, Levi; Wagenaar, Els; van Tellingen, Olaf; Schinkel, Alfred H

    2014-10-01

    Organic anion-transporting polypeptides (OATPs) are important drug uptake transporters, mediating distribution of substrates to several pharmacokinetically relevant organs. Doxorubicin is a widely used anti-cancer drug extensively studied for its interactions with various drug transporters, but not OATPs. Here, we investigated the role of OATP1A/1B proteins in the distribution of doxorubicin. In vitro, we observed ∼ 2-fold increased doxorubicin uptake in HEK293 cells overexpressing human OATP1A2, but not OATP1B1 or OATP1B3. In mice, absence of Oatp1a/1b transporters led to up to 2-fold higher doxorubicin plasma concentrations and 1.3-fold higher plasma AUC. Conversely, liver AUC and liver-to-plasma ratios of Oatp1a/1b(-/-) mice were 1.4-fold and up to 4.1-fold lower than in wild-type mice, respectively. Decreased doxorubicin levels in the small intestinal content reflected those in the liver, indicating a reduced biliary excretion of doxorubicin in Oatp1a/1b(-/-) mice. These results demonstrate important control of doxorubicin plasma clearance and hepatic uptake by mouse Oatp1a/1b transporters. This is unexpected, as the fairly hydrophobic weak base doxorubicin is an atypical OATP1A/1B substrate. Interestingly, transgenic liver-specific expression of human OATP1A2, OATP1B1 or OATP1B3 could partially rescue the increased doxorubicin plasma levels of Oatp1a/1b(-/-) mice. Hepatic uptake and bile-derived intestinal excretion of doxorubicin were completely reverted to wild-type levels by OATP1A2, and partially by OATP1B1 and OATP1B3. Thus, doxorubicin is transported by hepatocyte-expressed OATP1A2, -1B1 and -1B3 in vivo, illustrating an unexpectedly wide substrate specificity. These findings have possible implications for the uptake, disposition, therapy response and toxicity of doxorubicin, also in human tumors and tissues expressing these transporters. © 2014 UICC.

  1. Modulating the Strength and Threshold of NOTCH Oncogenic Signals by mir-181a-1/b-1

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Song; Schaffert, Steven; Gong, Xue; Yue, Sibiao; Luong, Richard; Min, Hyeyoung; Yashiro-Ohtani, Yumi; Davis, Mark; Pear, Warren; Chen, Chang-Zheng

    2012-01-01

    Oncogenes, which are essential for tumor initiation, development, and maintenance, are valuable targets for cancer therapy. However, it remains a challenge to effectively inhibit oncogene activity by targeting their downstream pathways without causing significant toxicity to normal tissues. Here we show that deletion of mir-181a-1/b-1 expression inhibits the development of Notch1 oncogene-induced T cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL). mir-181a-1/b-1 controls the strength and threshold of Notch activity in tumorigenesis in part by dampening multiple negative feedback regulators downstream of NOTCH and pre-T cell receptor (TCR) signaling pathways. Importantly, although Notch oncogenes utilize normal thymic progenitor cell genetic programs for tumor transformation, comparative analyses of mir-181a-1/b-1 function in normal thymocyte and tumor development demonstrate that mir-181a-1/b-1 can be specifically targeted to inhibit tumor development with little toxicity to normal development. Finally, we demonstrate that mir-181a-1/b-1, but not mir-181a-2b-2 and mir-181-c/d, controls the development of normal thymic T cells and leukemia cells. Together, these results illustrate that NOTCH oncogene activity in tumor development can be selectively inhibited by targeting the molecular networks controlled by mir-181a-1/b-1. PMID:22916024

  2. Characterization of 5-HT(1A/1B)-/- mice: an animal model sensitive to anxiolytic treatments.

    PubMed

    Guilloux, Jean-Philippe; David, Denis J P; Xia, Lin; Nguyen, Hai Thanh; Rainer, Quentin; Guiard, Bruno P; Repérant, Christelle; Deltheil, Thierry; Toth, Miklos; Hen, René; Gardier, Alain M

    2011-09-01

    Selective serotonin (5-HT) re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are commonly used in the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder in Humans. However, because only few animal models display overt anxious-like behavior, detailed preclinical studies of the anxiolytic properties of antidepressants are still lacking. Here, we studied the neurochemical and behavioral effects of a double 5-HT(1A/1B) receptor knockout in mice (5-HT(1A/1B)-/-) as compared to their wild-type littermates (5-HT(1A/1B)+/+). It is known that single deletion of either 5-HT(1A) or 5-HT(1B) receptor induces behavioral changes that are not correlated with differences in brain serotonergic tone. Deletion of both receptors resulted in (i) higher emotionality of animals, as observed in three unconditioned paradigms of anxiety (open field, elevated plus maze and novelty suppressed feeding tests); (ii) a ≈200% increase in the mean spontaneous firing rate of 5-HT neurons in the dorsal raphe nucleus (DRN) compared to 5-HT(1A/1B)+/+ mice; (iii) elevated basal dialysate levels of 5-HT in the DRN and frontal cortex; (iv) an exaggerated response to acute paroxetine administration in microdialysis experiments, and (v) increased basal core body temperature. These findings suggest that the deletion of both autoreceptors induces a strong anxious-like behavioral state associated with increased 5-HT neurotransmission. Interestingly, 5-HT(1A/1B)-/- mice are still sensitive to the acute administration of diazepam. Moreover, while deletion of both receptors impacted on the response to acute SSRI treatment in the forced swim test, anxiolytic-like effects of a chronic SSRI treatment were still observed in 5-HT(1A/1B)-/- mice. Thus, the 5-HT(1A/1B)-/- mouse model could be of great interest to unveil the mechanisms of action of the anxiolytic effects of SSRIs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Forest land suitability in a Mediterranean area under climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Anaya-Romero, María; Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; De la Rosa, Diego

    2013-04-01

    As a consequence of the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 and air temperatures, global climate is changing leading to warmer and often drier conditions in many forest ecosystems. The Mediterranean area is particularly vulnerable to climate change as a result of a combination of environmental and human factors. An adequate forest management is associated to improvement of habitat suitability for soil and water quality, climate regulation and other important ecosystem services. The MicroLEIS decision support system (MicroLEIS DSS), through its 12 land evaluation models, is a useful tool to assist decision-makers with specific agro-ecological problems. Among the land evaluation models, Sierra was specifically designed to assess forestry land suitability for restoration of semi-natural habitats in marginal agricultural lands. This model selects up to 22 forest species adapted to Mediterranean conditions based on latitude, longitude, physiographic position, useful depth, texture, drainage, pH, summer and winter temperatures, and precipitation. In this research, Sierra model was applied in 35 benchmark sites representative of the natural regions (NUTS2) of a Mediterranean area (Andalusia, Southern Spain) in current and future climate scenarios for the A1B IPPC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and the periods 2040, 2070 and 2100. Data was obtained from SEISnet soil database, CDBm climate database and the future climate change variation values of the State Meteorological Agency. The results showed that Pinus Pinea, Pinus halepensis, Quercus Ilex and Quercus suber are the most suitable forest species in actual and future climate scenarios for the selected marginal lands, according to the tolerance ranges for standard soil and climate variables of the forest species. Various forest species showed a potential aptitude for reforestation in future climate scenarios (i.e. Quercus), whereas others such as Castanea Sativa will not be suitable in the study area in 2070

  4. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality ismore » projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O 3 level and of 0.3 mg m 3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO 2, H 2O 2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O 3, and increases in CH 4 and VOCs. Increasing NO x and O 3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O 3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m 2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the

  5. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050.

    PubMed

    Song, Yongze; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jinfeng; Ren, Zhoupeng; Liao, Yilan; Peng, Junhuan

    2016-07-07

    Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Average malaria incidence was 0.107 ‰ per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R(2) = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R(2) = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity

  6. 76 FR 39254 - Airworthiness Directives; Schweizer Aircraft Corporation (Schweizer) Model 269A, A-1, B, C, C-1...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-06

    ... Airworthiness Directives; Schweizer Aircraft Corporation (Schweizer) Model 269A, A-1, B, C, C-1, and TH-55... reviewed Schweizer Service Bulletins No. B-295 for Model 269A, A-1, B, and C helicopters, and No. C1B-032... citation for Part 39 continues to read as follows: Authority: 49 U.S.C. 106(g), 40113, 44701. Sec. 39.13...

  7. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  8. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-07-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  9. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account.

  10. Evaluation of group A1B erythrocytes converted to type as group O: studies of markers of function and compatibility.

    PubMed

    Gao, Hong-Wei; Zhuo, Hai-Long; Zhang, Xue; Ji, Shou-Ping; Tan, Ying-Xia; Li, Su-Bo; Jia, Yan-Jun; Xu, Hua; Wu, Qing-Fa; Yun, Zhi-Min; Luo, Qun; Gong, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Enzymatic conversion of blood group A1B red blood cells (RBC) to group O RBC (ECO) was achieved by combined treatment with α-galactosidase and α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase. The aim of this study was to evaluate the function and safety of these A1B-ECO RBC in vitro. A 20% packed volume of A1B RBC was treated with enzymes in 250 mM glycine buffer, pH 6.8. The efficiency of the conversion of A and B antigen was evaluated by traditional typing in test tubes, gel column agglutination technology and fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) analysis. The physiological and metabolic parameters of native and ECO RBC were compared, including osmotic fragility, erythrocyte deformation index, levels of 2,3-diphosphoglycerate, ATP, methaemoglobin, free Na(+), and free K(+). The morphology of native and ECO RBC was observed by scanning electron microscopy. Residual α-galactosidase or α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase in A1B-ECO RBC was detected by double-antibody sandwich ELISA method. Manual cross-matching was applied to ensure blood compatibility. The RBC agglutination tests and FACS results showed that A1B RBC were efficiently converted to O RBC. Functional analysis suggested that the conversion process had little impact on the physiological and metabolic parameters of the RBC. The residual amounts of either α-galactosidase or α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase in the A1B-ECO RBC were less than 10 ng/mL of packed RBC. About 18% of group B and 55% of group O sera reacted with the A1B-ECO RBC in a sensitive gel column cross-matching test. The conversion process does not appear to affect the morphological, physiological or metabolic parameters of A1B-ECO RBC. However, the A1B-ECO RBC still reacted with some antigens. More research on group O and B sera, which may partly reflect the complexity of group A1 the safety of A1B-ECO RBC is necessary before the application of these RBC in clinical transfusion.

  11. Evaluation of group A1B erythrocytes converted to type as group O: studies of markers of function and compatibility

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Hong-Wei; Zhuo, Hai-Long; Zhang, Xue; Ji, Shou-Ping; Tan, Ying-Xia; Li, Su-Bo; Jia, Yan-Jun; Xu, Hua; Wu, Qing-Fa; Yun, Zhi-Min; Luo, Qun; Gong, Feng

    2016-01-01

    Background Enzymatic conversion of blood group A1B red blood cells (RBC) to group O RBC (ECO) was achieved by combined treatment with α-galactosidase and α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase. The aim of this study was to evaluate the function and safety of these A1B-ECO RBC in vitro. Materials and methods A 20% packed volume of A1B RBC was treated with enzymes in 250 mM glycine buffer, pH 6.8. The efficiency of the conversion of A and B antigen was evaluated by traditional typing in test tubes, gel column agglutination technology and fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) analysis. The physiological and metabolic parameters of native and ECO RBC were compared, including osmotic fragility, erythrocyte deformation index, levels of 2,3-diphosphoglycerate, ATP, methaemoglobin, free Na+, and free K+. The morphology of native and ECO RBC was observed by scanning electron microscopy. Residual α-galactosidase or α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase in A1B-ECO RBC was detected by double-antibody sandwich ELISA method. Manual cross-matching was applied to ensure blood compatibility. Results The RBC agglutination tests and FACS results showed that A1B RBC were efficiently converted to O RBC. Functional analysis suggested that the conversion process had little impact on the physiological and metabolic parameters of the RBC. The residual amounts of either α-galactosidase or α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase in the A1B-ECO RBC were less than 10 ng/mL of packed RBC. About 18% of group B and 55% of group O sera reacted with the A1B-ECO RBC in a sensitive gel column cross-matching test. Discussion The conversion process does not appear to affect the morphological, physiological or metabolic parameters of A1B-ECO RBC. However, the A1B-ECO RBC still reacted with some antigens. More research on group O and B sera, which may partly reflect the complexity of group A1 the safety of A1B-ECO RBC is necessary before the application of these RBC in clinical transfusion. PMID:26509826

  12. 26 CFR 1.404(a)-5 - Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Pension and annuity plans; limitations under... OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Pension, Profit-Sharing, Stock Bonus Plans, Etc. § 1.404(a)-5 Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B...

  13. 26 CFR 1.404(a)-5 - Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Pension and annuity plans; limitations under... OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Pension, Profit-Sharing, Stock Bonus Plans, Etc. § 1.404(a)-5 Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B...

  14. 26 CFR 1.404(a)-5 - Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Pension and annuity plans; limitations under... OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Pension, Profit-Sharing, Stock Bonus Plans, Etc. § 1.404(a)-5 Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B...

  15. 26 CFR 1.404(a)-5 - Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pension and annuity plans; limitations under... OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Pension, Profit-Sharing, Stock Bonus Plans, Etc. § 1.404(a)-5 Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B). (a) Subject...

  16. 26 CFR 1.404(a)-5 - Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Pension and annuity plans; limitations under... OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Pension, Profit-Sharing, Stock Bonus Plans, Etc. § 1.404(a)-5 Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B...

  17. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  18. High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

  19. Investigation of temperature and its indices under climate change scenarios over different regions of Rajasthan state in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Aditya; Sharma, Devesh; Panda, S. K.; Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Pradhan, Rajani K.

    2018-02-01

    The ongoing increases in concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gas will most likely affect global climate for the rest of this century. Global warming brings a huge provocation to society and human beings. Single extreme events and increased climate variability have a greater impact than long-term changes in the mean of climatic variables. This study analyzed the temperature projections for Rajasthan state, India using data obtain from two General Circulation Models (GFCM21 and HadCM3) for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Range of Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. A 30 years of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature for the period 1976-2005 has been obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and by using LARS-WG5 to generate the long-term weather series for three different periods i.e. 2011-2040 (2025s), 2041-2070 (2055s), and 2071-2100 (2085s). Further to determine the changes in extreme temperature events, the data for the baseline period and the future periods was represented by eight extreme temperature indices. Results illustrate that an increase in minimum and the maximum temperature are observed in all the three future periods. The average mean temperature for base period and three future periods over four regions of Rajasthan was observed highest in region 3 which shows an incessantly increased in mean temperature about 2.6 °C i.e. north-east and north-west part of Rajasthan. Two GCMs depicts that the incessant temperatures may be increase in the future and future maximum temperature in all the seasons varies from 2.43 °C to 4.27 °C in the direction from south to north of Rajasthan during 2071-2100. While for minimum temperature, the range of temperature changes varies from 0.23 °C to 1.42 °C from south-east to north-west of Rajasthan during 2011-2040. In the temperature indices, the number of tropical nights (TR20), warmest day (TX90p), warmest night (TN90p) and summer days (SU25) is expected

  20. Impact of heat on mortality in 15 European cities: attributable deaths under different weather scenarios.

    PubMed

    Baccini, M; Kosatsky, T; Analitis, A; Anderson, H R; D'Ovidio, M; Menne, B; Michelozzi, P; Biggeri, A

    2011-01-01

    High ambient summer temperatures have been shown to influence daily mortality in cities across Europe. Quantification of the population mortality burden attributable to heat is crucial to the development of adaptive approaches. The impact of summer heat on mortality for 15 European cities during the 1990s was evaluated, under hypothetical temperature scenarios warmer and cooler than the mean and under future scenarios derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). A Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the number of deaths attributable to heat for each city. These estimates rely on the results of a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis that combines city-specific heat-mortality functions. The number of heat-attributable deaths per summer ranged from 0 in Dublin to 423 in Paris. The mean attributable fraction of deaths was around 2%. The highest impact was in three Mediterranean cities (Barcelona, Rome and Valencia) and in two continental cities (Paris and Budapest). The largest impact was on persons over 75 years; however, in some cities, important proportions of heat-attributable deaths were also found for younger adults. Heat-attributable deaths markedly increased under warming scenarios. The impact under SRES scenarios was slightly lower or comparable to the impact during the observed hottest year. Current high summer ambient temperatures have an important impact on European population health. This impact is expected to increase in the future, according to the projected increase of mean ambient temperatures and frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves.

  1. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  2. Climate and carbon cycle changes under the overshoot scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nusbaumer, Jesse; Matsumoto, Katsumi

    2008-05-01

    when the overshoot scenario has emissions rates higher then the control scenario, the transient changes in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and surface ocean pH can be significant, even for moderate overshoot scenarios that remain within IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The large transient changes and the centennial timescale of climate reversibility suggest that the overshoot might not be the best mitigation approach, even if it technically follows the optimal economic path.

  3. A cyp19a1b-gfp (aromatase B) transgenic zebrafish line that expresses GFP in radial glial cells.

    PubMed

    Tong, Sok-Keng; Mouriec, Karen; Kuo, Ming-Wei; Pellegrini, Elisabeth; Gueguen, Marie-Madeleine; Brion, François; Kah, Olivier; Chung, Bon-chu

    2009-02-01

    Aromatase is an enzyme that catalyzes the synthesis of estrogen in gonads and brain. Teleost fish express aromatase (AroB) strongly in the brain facilitating its detailed examination. To understand the function of AroB in the brain, we generated transgenic zebrafish that expresses green fluorescent protein (GFP) driven by the brain aromatase cyp19a1b promoter. GFP was found in the radial glial cells of transgenic larvae and adult fish that overlap with AroB immunoreactivity in the correct temporal and spatial pattern. GFP was also coexpressed with radial cell marker BLBP, but was not in neurons. In addition, GFP expression in the radial glial cells was stimulated by estrogen, same as endogenous AroB expression. Thus, this transgenic line faithfully mimics the regulation of AroB expression in radial glial cells. It provides a powerful tool to further characterize progenitor radial cells in adult and developing fish and to evaluate estrogenic activities of xenoestrogens and phytoestrogens.

  4. A new ephrin-A1 isoform (ephrin-A1b) with altered receptor binding properties abrogates the cleavage of ephrin-A1a.

    PubMed

    Finne, Eivind F; Munthe, Else; Aasheim, Hans-Christian

    2004-04-01

    Ephrins are ligands for the Eph receptor tyrosine kinases, which play important roles in patterning nervous and vascular systems. Ephrin-A1 is a glycosylphosphatidylinositol-anchored ligand that binds to the EphA receptor tyrosine kinases. In the present study, we have identified a new ephrin-A1 isoform, denoted ephrin-A1b (ephrin-A1 isoform b). Compared with the originally described ephrin-A1 sequence, ephrin-A1a [Holzman, Marks and Dixit (1990) Mol. Cell. Biol. 10, 5830-5838], ephrin-A1b lacks a segment of 22 amino acids (residues 131-152). At the transcript level, exon 3 is spliced out in the transcript encoding ephrin-A1b. Transfection of HEK-293T cells (human embryonic kidney 293 cells) with an ephrin-A1b-expressing plasmid resulted in a significant expression of the protein on the cell surface. However, soluble EphA2 receptor (EphA2-Fc) bound weakly to ephrin-A1b-expressing transfectants, but bound strongly to ephrin-A1a-expressing transfectants. Ephrins have been shown to undergo regulated cleavage after interaction with their receptors. This process is inhibited by co-expression of ephrin-A1a and ephrin-A1b, indicating that ephrin-A1b influences the cleavage process. Taken together, these findings indicate that this newly described isoform may regulate the function of its ephrin-A1a counterpart.

  5. FHWA scenario planning guidebook

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario : planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework : to develop a scenario planning approach tailored t...

  6. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #2 - Safety and Security Scenario

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-01

    Defence R&D Canada Centre for Operational Research & Analysis...CORA Chief Scientist Defence R&D Canada – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA) © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as...of operating in Canada’s North. Future plans: This scenario will prove itself useful for the research, the planning, and the operational communities

  7. Analysis of Tubulin Alpha-1A/1B C-Terminal Tail Post-translational Poly-glutamylation Reveals Novel Modification Sites

    PubMed Central

    Sahab, Ziad J.; Kirilyuk, Alexander; Zhang, Lihua; Khamis, Zahraa I.; Pompach, Petr; Sung, YouMe; Byers, Stephen W.

    2012-01-01

    Tubulin-α1A/1B C-terminal tail (CTT) has 7 glutamic acid residues among the last 11 amino acids of its sequence that are potential sites for glutamylation. Cleavage of C-terminal tyrosine resulting in the detyrosinated form of tubulin-α1A/1B is another major modification. These modifications among others bring about highly heterogeneous tubulin samples in brain cells and microtubules, play a major role in directing intracellular trafficking, microtubule dynamics, and mitotic events, and can vary depending on the cell and disease state, such as cancer and neurodegenerative disorders. Identified previously using primary mass spectrometry (MS) ions and partial Edman sequencing, tubulin-α1A/1B glutamylation was found exclusively on the E445 residue. We here describe the analysis of tubulin-α1A/1B glutamylation and detyrosination after 2DE separation, trypsin and proteinase K in-gel digestion, and nanoUPLC-ESI-QqTOF-MS/MS of mouse brain and bovine microtubules. Tyrosinated, detyrosinated, and Δ2- tubulin-α1A/1B CTTs were identified based on a comparison of fragmentation patterns and retention times between endogenous and synthetic peptides. Stringent acceptance criteria were adapted for the identification of novel glutamylation sites. In addition to the previously identified site at E445, glutamylation on mouse and bovine tubulin-α1A/1B CTTs was identified on E441 and E443 with MASCOT Expect values below 0.01. O-methylation of glutamates was also observed. PMID:22296162

  8. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  9. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

  10. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  11. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  12. Basin-wide Projection for Paddy Irrigation in Monsoon Asia Based on a Distributed Hydrological Model and Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kudo, R.; Masumoto, T.; Yoshida, T.; Horikawa, N.

    2010-12-01

    1. Introduction A large amount of water in Monsoon Asia is used for rice paddy, and the mechanism of water use varies widely by region. Agricultural water exerts a great influence on the hydrological cycle in river basins and modeling of this process is crucial to understand the hydrological cycle especially in areas where irrigated agriculture is dominant. Such agricultural water uses, however, were not fully combined in the previous runoff models, although this process is essential for assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in Monsoon Asia. In this study, impact assessment of climate change on paddy field irrigation was carried out in the Seki River basin located in the northern part of Japan, using a distributed hydrological model incorporating various paddy water uses. 2. Distributed hydrological model incorporating various agricultural water uses The model used in this study consists of four sub-models, such as evapotranspiration, cropping pattern/area, agricultural water use, and runoff, so that it enables to estimate cropping area, paddy water requirements, actual intake at main irrigation facilities at any point of the basin, in addition to actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, runoff amount that are normally calculated by many prevailing runoff models. A target basin is divided into 1km-messhed cells and each cell contains the ratio of 5 land-use category as forest, rain-fed paddy, irrigated paddy, upland field and water area. Irrigation and crop patterns are also set as agricultural practices in each cell, and then irrigation amount and actual evapotranspiration can be estimated according to cropping stage and soil moisture. 3. Climate change scenarios and its bias correction Future climate scenarios simulated by MIROC (SRES-A1B), which is one of the GCMs developed by CCSR/NIES/FRCGC in Japan, were used as input data into the hydrological model. Coarse resolution by GCM was nested into 1km resolution by a simple linear

  13. Estrogen-regulated expression of cyp19a1a and cyp19a1b genes in swim-up fry of Labeo rohita.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Shreyasi; Moulik, Sujata Roy; Pal, Puja; Majumder, Suravi; Das, Sumana; Guha, Payel; Juin, Subir Kumar; Panigrahi, Ashis Kumar; Mukherjee, Dilip

    2017-09-15

    P450 aromatase is the terminal enzyme in the steroidogenic pathway and catalyzes the conversion of androgens to estrogens. The expression of cyp19a1 genes in brain and gonad of Indian major carp, Labeo rohita swim-up fry was measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain-reaction. Results demonstrated that cyp19a1b and cyp19a1a predominate in brain and gonad respectively. Treatment of fry with an aromatase inhibitor fadrozole for 6days attenuated brain cyp19a1b expression, but not cyp19a1a of gonad. Fadrozole also attenuated brain aromatase activity. Treatment with 17β-estradiol (E2) for 6days resulted in up-regulation of brain cyp19a1b transcripts in a dose- and time-dependent manner, but not cyp19a1a. Whole-body concentration of vitellogenin also increased in response to E2. Altogether, these results indicate L. rohita swim-up fry can be used to detect environmental estrogens either using vitellogenin induction or cyp19a1b gene expression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  15. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  16. Uncertainty of climate response to natural and anthropogenic forcings due to different land use scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2011-09-01

    The A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS) climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity is extended by a spatially explicit terrestrial carbon cycle module. Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM are performed forced by the reconstructions of anthropogenic and natural forcings for the 16th to the 20th centuries and by combined SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2-LUH (Land Use Harmonization) anthropogenic scenarios for the 21st century. Hereby, the impact of uncertainty in land-use scenarios on results of simulations with a coupled climate-carbon cycle model is tested. The simulations of the model realistically reproduced historical changes in carbon cycle characteristics. In the IAP RAS CM, climate warming reproduced in the 20th and 21st centuries enhanced terrestrial net primary production but terrestrial carbon uptake was suppressed due to an overcompensating increase in soil respiration. Around year 2100, the simulations the model forced by different land use scenarios diverged markedly, by about 70 Pg (C) in terms of biomass and soil carbon stock but they differed only by about 10 in terms of atmospheric carbon dioxide content.

  17. Loss of Slc4a1b Chloride/Bicarbonate Exchanger Function Protects Mechanosensory Hair Cells from Aminoglycoside Damage in the Zebrafish Mutant persephone

    PubMed Central

    Hailey, Dale W.; Roberts, Brock; Owens, Kelly N.; Stewart, Andrew K.; Linbo, Tor; Pujol, Remy; Alper, Seth L.; Rubel, Edwin W.; Raible, David W.

    2012-01-01

    Mechanosensory hair cell death is a leading cause of hearing and balance disorders in the human population. Hair cells are remarkably sensitive to environmental insults such as excessive noise and exposure to some otherwise therapeutic drugs. However, individual responses to damaging agents can vary, in part due to genetic differences. We previously carried out a forward genetic screen using the zebrafish lateral line system to identify mutations that alter the response of larval hair cells to the antibiotic neomycin, one of a class of aminoglycoside compounds that cause hair cell death in humans. The persephone mutation confers resistance to aminoglycosides. 5 dpf homozygous persephone mutants are indistinguishable from wild-type siblings, but differ in their retention of lateral line hair cells upon exposure to neomycin. The mutation in persephone maps to the chloride/bicarbonate exchanger slc4a1b and introduces a single Ser-to-Phe substitution in zSlc4a1b. This mutation prevents delivery of the exchanger to the cell surface and abolishes the ability of the protein to import chloride across the plasma membrane. Loss of function of zSlc4a1b reduces hair cell death caused by exposure to the aminoglycosides neomycin, kanamycin, and gentamicin, and the chemotherapeutic drug cisplatin. Pharmacological block of anion transport with the disulfonic stilbene derivatives DIDS and SITS, or exposure to exogenous bicarbonate, also protects hair cells against damage. Both persephone mutant and DIDS-treated wild-type larvae show reduced uptake of labeled aminoglycosides. persephone mutants also show reduced FM1-43 uptake, indicating a potential impact on mechanotransduction-coupled activity in the mutant. We propose that tight regulation of the ionic environment of sensory hair cells, mediated by zSlc4a1b activity, is critical for their sensitivity to aminoglcyoside antibiotics. PMID:23071446

  18. Physiological Properties of hERG 1a/1b Heteromeric Currents and a hERG 1b-specific Mutation Associated with Long QT Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Sale, Harinath; Wang, Jinling; O'Hara, Thomas J.; Tester, David J.; Phartiyal, Pallavi; He, Jia-Qiang; Rudy, Yoram; Ackerman, Michael J.; Robertson, Gail A.

    2009-01-01

    Cardiac IKr is a critical repolarizing current in the heart and a target for inherited and acquired long QT syndrome (LQTS). Biochemical and functional studies have demonstrated that IKr channels are heteromers composed of both hERG 1a and 1b subunits, yet our current understanding of IKr functional properties derives primarily from studies of homo-oligomers of the original hERG 1a isolate. Here we examine currents produced by hERG 1a and 1a/1b channels expressed in HEK-293 cells at near-physiological temperatures. We find that heteromeric hERG 1a/1b currents are much larger than hERG 1a currents and conduct 80% more charge during an action potential. This surprising difference corresponds to a two-fold increase in the apparent rates of activation and recovery from inactivation, thus reducing rectification and facilitating current rebound during repolarization. Kinetic modeling shows these gating differences account quantitatively for the differences in current amplitude between the two channel types. Drug sensitivity was also different. Compared to homomeric 1a channels, heteromeric 1a/1b channels were inhibited by E-4031 with a slower time course and a corresponding four-fold shift in the IC50. The importance of hERG 1b in vivo is supported by the identification of a 1b-specific A8V missense mutation in 1/269 unrelated genotype-negative LQTS patients and absent in 400 control alleles. Mutant 1bA8V expressed alone or with hERG 1a in HEK-293 cells dramatically reduced 1b protein levels. Thus, mutations specifically disrupting hERG 1b function are expected to reduce cardiac IKr and enhance drug sensitivity, and represent a potential mechanism underlying inherited or acquired LQTS. PMID:18776039

  19. Loss of Slc4a1b chloride/bicarbonate exchanger function protects mechanosensory hair cells from aminoglycoside damage in the zebrafish mutant persephone.

    PubMed

    Hailey, Dale W; Roberts, Brock; Owens, Kelly N; Stewart, Andrew K; Linbo, Tor; Pujol, Remy; Alper, Seth L; Rubel, Edwin W; Raible, David W

    2012-01-01

    Mechanosensory hair cell death is a leading cause of hearing and balance disorders in the human population. Hair cells are remarkably sensitive to environmental insults such as excessive noise and exposure to some otherwise therapeutic drugs. However, individual responses to damaging agents can vary, in part due to genetic differences. We previously carried out a forward genetic screen using the zebrafish lateral line system to identify mutations that alter the response of larval hair cells to the antibiotic neomycin, one of a class of aminoglycoside compounds that cause hair cell death in humans. The persephone mutation confers resistance to aminoglycosides. 5 dpf homozygous persephone mutants are indistinguishable from wild-type siblings, but differ in their retention of lateral line hair cells upon exposure to neomycin. The mutation in persephone maps to the chloride/bicarbonate exchanger slc4a1b and introduces a single Ser-to-Phe substitution in zSlc4a1b. This mutation prevents delivery of the exchanger to the cell surface and abolishes the ability of the protein to import chloride across the plasma membrane. Loss of function of zSlc4a1b reduces hair cell death caused by exposure to the aminoglycosides neomycin, kanamycin, and gentamicin, and the chemotherapeutic drug cisplatin. Pharmacological block of anion transport with the disulfonic stilbene derivatives DIDS and SITS, or exposure to exogenous bicarbonate, also protects hair cells against damage. Both persephone mutant and DIDS-treated wild-type larvae show reduced uptake of labeled aminoglycosides. persephone mutants also show reduced FM1-43 uptake, indicating a potential impact on mechanotransduction-coupled activity in the mutant. We propose that tight regulation of the ionic environment of sensory hair cells, mediated by zSlc4a1b activity, is critical for their sensitivity to aminoglycoside antibiotics.

  20. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  1. 5-HT1A/1B receptors as targets for optimizing pigmentary responses in C57BL/6 mouse skin to stress.

    PubMed

    Wu, Hua-Li; Pang, Si-Lin; Liu, Qiong-Zhen; Wang, Qian; Cai, Min-Xuan; Shang, Jing

    2014-01-01

    Stress has been reported to induce alterations of skin pigmentary response. Acute stress is associated with increased turnover of serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine; 5-HT) whereas chronic stress causes a decrease. 5-HT receptors have been detected in pigment cells, indicating their role in skin pigmentation. To ascertain the precise role of 5-HT in stress-induced pigmentary responses, C57BL/6 mice were subjected to chronic restraint stress and chronic unpredictable mild stress (CRS and CUMS, two models of chronic stress) for 21 days, finally resulting in abnormal pigmentary responses. Subsequently, stressed mice were characterized by the absence of a black pigment in dorsal coat. The down-regulation of tyrosinase (TYR) and tyrosinase-related proteins (TRP1 and TRP2) expression in stressed skin was accompanied by reduced levels of 5-HT and decreased expression of 5-HT receptor (5-HTR) system. In both murine B16F10 melanoma cells and normal human melanocytes (NHMCs), 5-HT had a stimulatory effect on melanin production, dendricity and migration. When treated with 5-HT in cultured hair follicles (HFs), the increased expression of melanogenesis-related genes and the activation of 5-HT1A, 1B and 7 receptors also occurred. The serum obtained from stressed mice showed significantly decreased tyrosinase activity in NHMCs compared to that from nonstressed mice. The decrease in tyrosinase activity was further augmented in the presence of 5-HTR1A, 1B and 7 antagonists, WAY100635, SB216641 and SB269970. In vivo, stressed mice received 5-HT precursor 5-hydroxy-l-tryptophan (5-HTP), a member of the class of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (fluoxetine; FX) and 5-HTR1A/1B agonists (8-OH-DPAT/CP94253), finally contributing to the normalization of pigmentary responses. Taken together, these data strongly suggest that the serotoninergic system plays an important role in the regulation of stress-induced depigmentation, which can be mediated by 5-HT1A/1B receptors. 5-HT and 5-HTR1A

  2. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  3. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  4. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  5. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  6. Effect-directed analysis for estrogenic compounds in a fluvial sediment sample using transgenic cyp19a1b-GFP zebrafish embryos.

    PubMed

    Fetter, Eva; Krauss, Martin; Brion, François; Kah, Olivier; Scholz, Stefan; Brack, Werner

    2014-09-01

    Xenoestrogens may persist in the environment by binding to sediments or suspended particulate matter serving as long-term reservoir and source of exposure, particularly for organisms living in or in contact with sediments. In this study, we present for the first time an effect-directed analysis (EDA) for identifying estrogenic compounds in a sediment sample using embryos of a transgenic reporter fish strain. In the tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) transgenic zebrafish strain, the expression of GFP (green fluorescent protein) in the brain is driven by an oestrogen responsive element in the promoter of the cyp19a1b (aromatase) gene. The selected sediment sample of the Czech river Bilina had already been analysed in a previous EDA using the yeast oestrogen screening assay and had revealed fractions containing estrogenic compounds. When normal phase HPLC (high performance liquid chromatography) fractionation was used for the separation of the sediment sample, the biotest with transgenic fish embryos revealed two estrogenic fractions. Chemical analysis of candidate compounds in these sediment fractions suggested alkylphenols and estrone as candidate compounds responsible for the observed estrogenic effect. Alkylphenol concentrations could partially explain the estrogenicity of the fractions. However, xenoestrogens below the analytical detection limit or non-targeted estrogenic compounds have probably also contributed to the sample's estrogenic potency. The results indicated the suitability of the tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) fish embryo for an integrated chemical-biological analysis of estrogenic effects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    DOE PAGES

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; ...

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m X ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

  8. Polymorphisms in Heat Shock Proteins A1B and A1L (HOM) as Risk Factors for Oesophageal Carcinoma in Northeast India.

    PubMed

    Saikia, Snigdha; Barooah, Prajjalendra; Bhattacharyya, Mallika; Deka, Manab; Goswami, Bhabadev; Sarma, Manash P; Medhi, Subhash

    2015-01-01

    To investigate polymorphisms in heat shock proteins A1B and A1L (HOM) and associated risk of oesophageal carcinoma in Northeast India. The study includes oesophageal cancer (ECA) patients attending general outpatient department (OPD) and endoscopic unit of Gauhati Medical College. Patients were diagnosed based on endoscopic and histopathological findings. Genomic DNA was typed for HSPA1B1267 and HSPA1L2437 SNPs using the polymerase chain reaction with restriction fragment length polymorphisms. A total of 78 cases and 100 age-sex matched healthy controls were included in the study with a male: female ratio of 5:3 and a mean age of 61.4±8.5 years. Clinico-pathological evaluation showed 84% had squamous cell carcinoma and 16% were adenocarcinoma. Dysphagia grades 4 (43.5%) and 5 (37.1%) were observed by endoscopic and hispathological evaluation. The frequency of genomic variation of A1B from wild type A/A to heterozygous A/G and mutant G/G showed a positive association [chi sq=19.9, p= <0.05] and the allelic frequency also showed a significant correlation [chi sq=10.3, with cases vs. controls, OR=0.32, p≤0.05]. The genomic variation of A1L from wild T/T to heterozygous T/C and mutant C/C were found positively associated [chi sq= 7.02, p<0.05] with development of ECA. While analyzing the allelic frequency, there was no significant association [chi sq= 3.19, OR=0.49, p=0.07]. Among all the risk factors, betel quid [OR =9.79, Chi square= 35.0, p<0.05], tobacco [OR = 2.95, chi square=10.6, p<0.05], smoking [OR=3.23, chi square=10.1, p<0.05] demonstrated significant differences between consumers vs. non consumers regarding EC development. Alcohol did not show any significant association [OR= 1.34, chi square=0.69, p=0.4] independently. It can be concluded that the present study provides marked evidence that polymorphisms of HSP70 A1B and HSP70 A1L genes are associated with the development of ECA in a population in Northeast India, A1B having a stronger influence. Betel

  9. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  10. Hepatocellular Shuttling and Recirculation of Sorafenib-Glucuronide is Dependent on Abcc2, Abcc3, and Oatp1a/1b

    PubMed Central

    Vasilyeva, Aksana; Durmus, Selvi; Li, Lie; Wagenaar, Els; Hu, Shuiying; Gibson, Alice A.; Panetta, John C.; Mani, Sridhar; Sparreboom, Alex; Baker, Sharyn D.; Schinkel, Alfred H.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, an efficient liver detoxification process dubbed ‘hepatocyte hopping’ was proposed based on findings with the endogenous compound, bilirubin glucuronide. According to this model, hepatocytic bilirubin glucuronide can follow a liver-to-blood shuttling loop via Abcc3 transporter-mediated efflux and subsequent Oatp1a/1b-mediated liver uptake. We hypothesized that glucuronide conjugates of xenobiotics, such as the anticancer drug sorafenib, can also undergo hepatocyte hopping. Using transporter-deficient mouse models, we show here that sorafenib-glucuronide can be extruded from hepatocytes into the bile by Abcc2 or back into the systemic circulation by Abcc3, and that it can be taken up efficiently again into neighboring hepatocytes by Oatp1a/1b. We further demonstrate that sorafenib-glucuronide excreted into the gut lumen can be cleaved by microbial enzymes to sorafenib which is then reabsorbed, supporting its persistence in the systemic circulation. Our results suggest broad relevance of a hepatocyte shuttling process known as “hepatocyte hopping” – a novel concept in clinical pharmacology - for detoxification of targeted cancer drugs which undergo hepatic glucuronidation, such as sorafenib. PMID:25952649

  11. BEX5/RabA1b Regulates trans-Golgi Network-to-Plasma Membrane Protein Trafficking in Arabidopsis[W

    PubMed Central

    Feraru, Elena; Feraru, Mugurel I.; Asaoka, Rin; Paciorek, Tomasz; De Rycke, Riet; Tanaka, Hirokazu; Nakano, Akihiko; Friml, Jiří

    2012-01-01

    Constitutive endocytic recycling is a crucial mechanism allowing regulation of the activity of proteins at the plasma membrane and for rapid changes in their localization, as demonstrated in plants for PIN-FORMED (PIN) proteins, the auxin transporters. To identify novel molecular components of endocytic recycling, mainly exocytosis, we designed a PIN1-green fluorescent protein fluorescence imaging–based forward genetic screen for Arabidopsis thaliana mutants that showed increased intracellular accumulation of cargos in response to the trafficking inhibitor brefeldin A (BFA). We identified bex5 (for BFA-visualized exocytic trafficking defective), a novel dominant mutant carrying a missense mutation that disrupts a conserved sequence motif of the small GTPase, RAS GENES FROM RAT BRAINA1b. bex5 displays defects such as enhanced protein accumulation in abnormal BFA compartments, aberrant endosomes, and defective exocytosis and transcytosis. BEX5/RabA1b localizes to trans-Golgi network/early endosomes (TGN/EE) and acts on distinct trafficking processes like those regulated by GTP exchange factors on ADP-ribosylation factors GNOM-LIKE1 and HOPM INTERACTOR7/BFA-VISUALIZED ENDOCYTIC TRAFFICKING DEFECTIVE1, which regulate trafficking at the Golgi apparatus and TGN/EE, respectively. All together, this study identifies Arabidopsis BEX5/RabA1b as a novel regulator of protein trafficking from a TGN/EE compartment to the plasma membrane. PMID:22773752

  12. Modelling Changes to Crop Yield Under Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerber, J. S.; Deryng, D.; Ray, D. K.; Mueller, N. D.; Foley, J. A.; Ramankutty, N.

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents two sets of quantitative predictions for global soy and maize yields under changes to temperature and precipitation. The climatic changes considered are based on IPCC scenarios A1B and B1 as calculated with a variety of GCMs. One set of crop yield predictions is calculated with the process-based PEGASUS model, the other is based on an empirical climate-analog approach. The core of PEGASUS is a simple global surface energy, water, and carbon balance model. In addition, PEGASUS simulates planting dates and optimum cultivars at different locations of the world, allocates carbon to a grain pool, and uses an empirical relationship to estimate the influence of fertilizer application. In the empirical climate analog approach, recently published global data sets are used to empirically determine maximum attainable (potential) crop yields for a given set of climatic and soil conditions. Farmers are then quantified by their abilities to reach potential yields and as new climatically-limited potential yields obtain under climate change scenarios, farmers’ yields are assumed to evolve proportionally. Preliminary results indicate that global average yields in the future are sensitive to the climate model used to generate the future climate. However, all models indicate a decrease in yields under climate scenarios A1B and B1.

  13. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  14. Kent, Ohio, solar scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kremers, J.A.

    1980-01-01

    The community of Kent, Ohio is involved in an assessment on the uses of solar energy to meet the city's future energy needs. The goal is to generate total community involvement so as to: (1) create an awareness on the part of the consumers of the principles and social issues related to the utilization of solar energy, and (2) stimulate a commitment to alternative energy sources to fulfill needs. The process includes the development of solar future scenarios and an assessment by community members of the community social, economic, political, institutional, and lifestyle impacts of the scenarios. The objective ismore » to provide an assessment of impacts of solar techniques upon communities, and to develop a process by which communities can do their own assessments.« less

  15. Climate-change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, Frederic H.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Baldwin, C.K.; Mearns, L.O.; Wagner, Frederic H.

    2003-01-01

    Three procedures were used to develop a set of plausible scenarios of anthropogenic climate change by the year 2100 that could be posed to the sectors selected for assessment (Fig. 2.2). First, a workshop of climatologists with expertise in western North American climates was convened from September 10-12, 1998 at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara, CA to discuss and propose a set of scenarios for the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin (RMGB) region.Secondly, the 20th-century climate record was analyzed to determine what trends might have occurred during the period. Since CO2 and other greenhouse gases increased during the century, it was reasonable to examine whether the changes projected for the 21st century had begun to appear during the 20th, at least qualitatively though not quantitatively.Third, on the assumption of a two-fold increase in atmospheric CO2 by 2100, climate-change scenarios for the 21st century were projected with two, state-of-the-art computer models that simulate the complex interactions between earth, atmosphere, and ocean to produce the earth’s climate system. Each of the last two procedures has its strengths and weaknesses, and each can function to some degree as a check on the other. The historical analysis has the advantage of using empirical measurements of actual climate change taken over an extensive network of measuring stations. These make it possible to subdivide a large region like the RMGB into subreqions to assess the uniformity of climate and climate change over the region. And the historical measurements can to some degree serve as a check on the GCM simulations when the two are compared over the same time period.

  16. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  17. Tracking radiometric responsivity of optical sensors without on-board calibration systems-case of the Chinese HJ-1A/1B CCD sensors.

    PubMed

    Li, Jian; Chen, Xiaoling; Tian, Liqiao; Feng, Lian

    2015-01-26

    The radiometric stability of satellite sensors is crucial for generating highly consistent remote sensing measurements and products. We have presented a radiometric responsivity tracking method designed especially for optical sensors without on-board calibration systems. Using a temporally stable desert site with high reflectance, the sensor responsivity was simulated using the Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) radiative transfer model (RTM) with information from validated MODIS atmospheric data. Next, radiometric responsivity drifting was identified using a linear regression of the time series bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) normalized coefficients. The proposed method was applied to Chinese HJ-1A/1B charge-coupled device (CCD) sensors, which have been on-orbit operations for more than 5 years without continuous assessment of their radiometric performance. Results from the Dunhuang desert site between 2008 and 2013 indicated that the CCD sensors degraded at various rates, with the most significant degradation occurring in the blue bands, ranging from 2.8% to 4.2% yr-1. The red bands were more stable, with a degradation rate of 0.7-3.1% yr-1. A cross-sensor comparison revealed the least degradation for the HJ-1A CCD1 (blue: 2.8%; green: 2.8%; red: 0.7%; and NIR: 0.9% yr-1), whereas the degradation of HJ-1B CCD1 was most pronounced (blue: 3.5%; green: 4.1%; red: 2.3%; and NIR: 3.4% yr-1). The uncertainties of the method were evaluated theoretically based on the propagation of uncertainties from all possible sources of the RT simulations. In addition, a cross comparison with matchup ground-based absolute calibration results was conducted. The comparison demonstrated that the method was useful for continuously monitoring the radiometric performance of remote sensors, such as HJ-1A/1B CCD and GaoFen (GF) series (China's latest high-definition Earth observation

  18. Light-mediated hydrogen generation in Photosystem I: attachment of a naphthoquinone-molecular wire-Pt nanoparticle to the A1A and A1B sites.

    PubMed

    Gorka, Michael; Schartner, Jonas; van der Est, Art; Rögner, Matthias; Golbeck, John H

    2014-04-15

    The molecular wire-appended naphthoquinone 1-[15-(3-methyl-1,4-naphthoquinone-2-yl)]pentadecyl disulfide [(NQ(CH2)15S)2] has been incorporated into the A1A and A1B sites of Photosystem I (PS I) in the menB variant of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. Transient electron paramagnetic resonance studies show that the naphthoquinone headgroup displaces plastoquinone-9 from the A1A (and likely A1B) sites to a large extent. When a Pt nanoparticle is attached to the molecular wire by reductive cleavage of the disulfide and reaction with the resulting thiol, the PS I-NQ(CH2)15S-Pt nanoconstruct evolves dihydrogen at a rate of 67.3 μmol of H2 (mg of Chl)(-1) h(-1) [3.4 e(-) (PS I)(-1) s(-1)] after illumination for 1 h at pH 6.4. No dihydrogen is detected if wild-type PS I, which does not incorporate the quinone, is used or if either (NQ(CH2)15S)2 or the Pt nanoparticle is absent. Time-resolved optical studies of the PS I-NQ(CH2)15S-Pt nanoconstruct show that the lifetimes of the forward electron transfer to and reverse electron transfer from the iron-sulfur clusters are the same as in native PS I. Thus, electrons are not shuttled directly from the quinone to the Pt nanoparticle during either forward or reverse electron transfer. It is found that the rate of dihydrogen evolution in the PS I-NQ(CH2)15S-Pt nanoconstruct depends strongly on the concentration the sacrificial electron donor cytochrome c6. These observations can be explained if the iron-sulfur clusters are involved in stabilizing the electron; the ~50 ms residence time of the electron on FA or FB is sufficiently long to allow cytochrome c6 to reduce P700(+), thereby eliminating the recombination channel. In the absence of P700(+), slow electron transfer through the molecular wire to the Pt catalyst can occur, and hence, H2 evolution is observed.

  19. Successful ABO-Incompatible Renal Transplantation:  Blood Group A1B Donor Into A2B Recipient With Anti-A1 Isoagglutinins.

    PubMed

    Fadeyi, Emmanuel A; Stratta, Robert J; Farney, Alan C; Pomper, Gregory J

    2016-08-01

    Transplantation of the blood group A2B in a recipient was successfully performed in the setting of receiving a deceased donor kidney from an "incompatible" A1B donor. The donor and recipient were both typed for ABO blood group, including ABO genotyping. The donor and recipient were tested for ABO, non-ABO, and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) antibodies. The donor and recipient were typed for HLA antigens, including T- and B-flow cytometry crossmatch tests. The recipient's RBCs were negative with A1 lectin, and immunoglobulin G anti-A1 was demonstrated in the recipient's plasma. The donor-recipient pair was a four-antigen HLA mismatch, but final T- and B-flow cytometry crossmatch tests were compatible. The transplant procedure was uneventful; the patient experienced immediate graft function with no episodes of rejection or readmissions more than 2 years later. It may be safe to transplant across the A1/A2 blood group AB mismatch barrier in the setting of low titer anti-A1 isoagglutinins without the need for pretransplant desensitization even if the antibody produced reacts with anti-human globulin. © American Society for Clinical Pathology, 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

    2017-04-01

    Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

  1. Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

    2017-04-10

    Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 10 6  km 2 , 0.14 × 10 6  km 2 , and 0.11 × 10 6  km 2 , respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

  2. Efficient Maize and Sunflower Multi-year Mapping with NDVI Time Series of HJ-1A/1B in Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, B.; Shang, S.

    2016-12-01

    Food shortage is one of the major challenges that human beings are facing. It is urgent to improve the monitoring of the plantation and distribution of the main crops to solve the following economic and social issues. Recently, with the extensive use of remote sensing satellite data, it has provided favorable conditions for crop identification in large irrigation district with complex planting structure. Difference of different crop phenology is the main basis for crop identification, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time-series could better delineate crop phenology cycle. Therefore, the key of crop identification is to obtain high quality NDVI time-series. MODIS and Landsat TM satellite images are the most frequently used, however, neither of them could guarantee high temporal and spatial resolutions at once. Accordingly, this paper makes use of NDVI time-series extracted from China Environment Satellites data, which has two-day-repeat temporal and 30m spatial resolutions. The NDVI time-series are fitted with an asymmetric logistic curve, the fitting effect is good and the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.9. The phonological parameters are derived from NDVI fitting curves, and crop identification is carried out by different relation ellipses between NDVI and its phonological parameters of different crops. This paper takes Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia as an example, to identify multi-year maize and sunflower in the district, and the identification result is good. Compared with the official statistics, the relative errors are both lower than 5%. The results show that the NDVI time-series dataset derived from HJ-1A/1B CCD could delineate the crop phenology cycle accurately and demonstrate its application in crop identification in irrigated district.

  3. Genetic variants of heat shock protein A1L2437 and A1B1267 as possible risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in India.

    PubMed

    Medhi, S; Sarma, M P; Asim, M; Kar, P

    2013-04-01

    To study the role of heat shock protein A1L (HSPA1L) and A1B (HSPA1B) polymorphisms and subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in India. Subjects enrolled included 185 cases of HCC, 182 cases of chronic hepatitis (CH) and 200 healthy controls. Genomic DNA was typed for HSPA1L2437 and HSPA1B1267 SNP using polymerase chain reaction with restriction fragment length polymorphism. Other risk factors were also analysed. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, older age >35 years and high aflatoxin level in urine increased the risk of HCC. The frequencies of HSPA1L BB genotype and B allele in HCC were more than in CH [odds ratio (OR): 9.83; P = 0.000], but also in HBV-related HCC than Chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) [OR: 3.44; P = 0.004] and HCV-related HCC compared to CHC [OR: 6.32; P = 0.010]. The frequency of HSPA1B genotype in the homozygous state was more in CH [OR: 6.01; P = 0.001] and is a good marker to predict the risk of HCV-related CH (CHC) compared to controls. HCV-related HCC has a higher frequency of the B allele of HSPA1B than healthy controls [OR: 3.95; P = 0.000] and CHC [OR: 2.35; P = 0.000], respectively. The frequencies increased further significantly in CHC compared to healthy controls [OR: 9.26; P = 0.000]. The risk for the development of CH and HCC compared to healthy controls irrespective of the aetiology was significant in terms of the HSPA1B marker than HSPA1L in the Indian population. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. Production of enniatins A, A1, B, B1, B4, J1 by Fusarium tricinctum in solid corn culture: structural analysis and effects on mitochondrial respiration.

    PubMed

    Cuomo, Valentina; Randazzo, Antonio; Meca, Giuseppe; Moretti, Antonio; Cascone, Annunziata; Eriksson, Ove; Novellino, Ettore; Ritieni, Alberto

    2013-10-15

    Enniatins (ENs) are secondary fungal metabolites with hexadepsipeptidic chemical structure and they possess a number of potent biological activities that can contaminate several kind of food and foodstuffs increasing the exposure risk for consumers. ENs are produced by several Fusariun strains including Fusarium subglutinans, Fusarium proliferatum and Fusarium tricinctum. Production of a mixture of ENs was performed by culturing F. tricinctum ITEM 9496 on white corn as substrate. The solid culture components were dried and subsequently extracted with water/methanol (50/50 v/v, 0.5% NaCl), homogenised, filtered, extracted by ethyl acetate and analysed by liquid chromatography with diode array detection (LC-DAD). The crude extract was first separated by low pressure liquid chromatography (LPLC) and then further purified by liquid chromatography (LC), resulting in six compounds with a purity higher than 95% as calculated by (1)H NMR, and with a yield of 30-300mg per compound. The chemical structures of the ENs were determined by liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (LC-MS) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). The biological activity of the resulting ENs was determined using a mitochondrial respiration test. We discovered that all the ENs studied induced an increase in the mitochondrial respiration resulting in uncoupling of the oxidative phosphorylation. This effect was most likely due to flux of K(+) ions into the mitochondrial matrix. The order of potency of the ENs derivatives was: A1>B1>B>A>B4>J1. These results suggest a correlation between the chemical structures and bioactivity and confirm the severe risks for human associated with consumption of enniatins. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

    2010-12-01

    Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

  6. The changing nutrition scenario.

    PubMed

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  7. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  8. Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Yanlong; Lu, Chunyan; Gao, Bei

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants. PMID:27781160

  9. Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change.

    PubMed

    Guo, Yanlong; Wei, Haiyan; Lu, Chunyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera . Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

  10. The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

    2009-09-01

    The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

  11. China Land-Use Change Simulation Under Climate Mitigation Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DONG, N.; Lin, H.

    2016-12-01

    Future land-use change responses to human activities and plays a significant role in the whole earth system. Land use data in most climatic models are static which result in a decreased accuracy of evaluation of human activities and also largely lower the efficiency of policy makers. After the RCP scenarios came out, the land use change trends in China for the near future were rarely shown. This paper provides a method to simulate the future land use change in China based on climate mitigation scenarios. The MCD12Q1 product of MODIS and HYDE32 data are combined to make the base land use maps for China of 2005 and 2010. Totally four scenarios are made according to the Chinese national land use overall plan outlines and the statistic data from GCAM. Driving factors from social-economic, ecologic and spatial location aspects are considered including GDP, population density, temperature, precipitation, dominant soil type, elevation, slope, distance to roads, distance to rivers and distance to cities. Simulation is then carried out in 14 agricultural-zones desperately with Dyna-CLUE. Each scenario reflects seperate effects of human activities on land use change. Plan scenario represents the stage of a high speed of urban expansion. Under the condition that urban area would not largely change, the other three GCAM scenarios mainly discuss the situations focused on the change of vegetation cover. We find that: (1)The urban area expands largely in Plan scenario, and G2.6 gets the most forest and crop area which shows environment-friendly human activities to the ecologic balance (Figure 1a,1b). (2) Compare to the 2010 land use map, forest increases mainly happen in the northeast China and central plains region under the G2.6 scenario. However, urban expansion under the Plan scenario occurs not in the Yangtze River Delta or Pearl River Delta economic region but in the second or third developed level cities such as Wuhan, Jinan, and Nanchang (Figure1c,1d). (3)The kappa value

  12. 2014-2016 Mt. Etna Ground deformation imaged by SISTEM approach using GPS and SENTINEL-1A/1B TOPSAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonforte, Alessandro; Guglielmino, Francesco; Puglisi, Giuseppe

    2017-04-01

    In the frame of the EC FP7 MED-SUV project (call FP7 ENV.2012.6.4-2), and thanks to the GEO-GSNL initiative, GPS data and SENTINEL 1A/1B TOPSAR acquired on Mt. Etna between October 2014 and November 2016 were analyzed. The SENTINEL data were used in order to combine and integrate them with GPS, and detail the ground deformation recorded by GPS on Mt. Etna, during the last two-year's volcanic activity. The Sentinel data were processed by GAMMA software, using a spectral diversity method and a procedure able to co-register the SENTINEL pairs with extremely high precision (< 0.01 pixel). In order to optimize the time processing, a new software architecture based on the hypervisor virtualization technology for the x64 versions of Windows has been implemented. The DInSAR results are analysed and successively used as input for the time series analysis using the StaMPS package. On December 28, 2014 eruptive activity resumed at Mt. Etna with a fire fountain activity feeding two lava flows spreading on the eastern and south-western upper flanks of the volcano, producing evident deformation at the summit of the volcano. GPS displacements and Sentinel-1A ascending interferogram were calculated in order to image the ground deformation pattern accompanying the eruption. The ground deformation pattern has been perfectly depicted by the GPS network, mainly affecting the uppermost part of the volcano edifice, with a strong decay of the deformation, according to a very shallow and strong dyke intrusion. The Sentinel 1A SAR data, covering the similar time spanning, confirmed that most of displacements are related to the dike intrusion, and evidenced a local gravity-driven motion of the western wall of the Valle del Bove, probably related to the dike intrusion. To monitor the temporal successive evolution of ground deformation, we performed an A-DInSAR SENTINEL analysis using the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) approach included with the StaMPS processing package. The April 2015

  13. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  14. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  15. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  16. Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice.

    PubMed

    Ziter, Carly; Robinson, Emily A; Newman, Jonathan A

    2012-09-01

    Experimental studies of the impact of climatic change are hampered by their inability to consider multiple climate change scenarios and indeed often consider no more than simple climate sensitivity such as a uniform increase in temperature. Modelling efforts offer the ability to consider a much wider range of realistic climate projections and are therefore useful, in particular, for estimating the sensitivity of impact predictions to differences in geographical location, and choice of climate change scenario and climate model projections. In this study, we used well-established degree-day models to predict the voltinism of 13 agronomically important pests in California, USA. We ran these models using the projections from three Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Global Circulation Models (AOCGCMs or GCMs), in conjunction with the SRES scenarios. We ran these for two locations representing northern and southern California. We did this for both the 2050s and 2090s. We used anova to partition the variation in the resulting voltinism among time period, climate change scenario, GCM and geographical location. For these 13 pest species, the choice of climate model explained an average of 42% of the total variation in voltinism, far more than did geographical location (33%), time period (17%) or scenario (1%). The remaining 7% of the variation was explained by various interactions, of which the location by GCM interaction was the strongest (5%). Regardless of these sources of uncertainty, a robust conclusion from our work is that all 13 pest species are likely to experience increases in the number of generations that they complete each year. Such increased voltinism is likely to have significant consequences for crop protection and production. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

    2013-12-01

    Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent

  18. Do invasive riparian Tamarix alter hydrology of riparian areas of arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattarai, M. P.; Acharya, K.; Chen, L.

    2012-12-01

    Competitiveness of riparian invasive species, Tamarix, in arid and semi-arid riparian areas of the southwestern United States under climate change scenario (SRES A2) was investigated. Tamarix has been replacing native vegetation along the riparian corridors of these areas for the past several decades and is thought to alter water balance. Changes in depth to groundwater, soil moisture distribution and flood frequency are critical in survival and growth of a facultative phreatophyte such as Tamarix. In this study, a fully coupled 2d surface flow and 3d subsurface flow hydrologic model, HydroGeoSphere, was used to simulate surface-subsurface hydrology of the lower Virgin River basin (4500 sq. km), located in Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The hydrologic model results, depth to groundwater and soil saturation, were then applied to the species distribution model, Maxent, along with other bioclimatic parameters to asses future Tamarix distribution probability. Simulations were made for the climate scenarios of the end of 21st centry conditions. Depth to groundwater is found to be the most important predictor variable to the Maxent model. Future Tamarix distribution range is not uniform across the basin. It is likely to decrease at lower elevations and increase in some higher elevation areas.

  19. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  20. Extreme climate event trends: The data mining and evaluation of the A1FI scenario for 2000-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, D. J.; Ganguly, A.; Steinhaeuser, K.; Branstetter, M.; Oglesby, R.; Hoffman, F.; Buja, L.

    2008-12-01

    We will discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as Earth climate evolves from 2000-2100. Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the A1F1 scenario for the period 2000- 2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will interpret these new A1F1 results within the context of the previous climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover and atmospheric CO2. Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events. We will report on the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming on IMR and assess the trend of extreme rain and temperature events in a warming environment.

  1. Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

  2. Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, T. R.

    2013-12-01

    In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide

  3. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  4. Brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) and gonadotropin releasing hormone (gnrh2 and gnrh3) expression during reproductive development and sex change in black sea bass (Centropristis striata).

    PubMed

    Breton, Timothy S; DiMaggio, Matthew A; Sower, Stacia A; Berlinsky, David L

    2015-03-01

    Teleost fish exhibit diverse reproductive strategies, and some species are capable of changing sex. The influence of many endocrine factors, such as gonadal steroids and neuropeptides, has been studied in relation to sex change, but comparatively less research has focused on gene expression changes within the brain in temperate grouper species with non-haremic social structures. The purpose of the present study was to investigate gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) and brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) gene expression patterns during reproductive development and sex change in protogynous (female to male) black sea bass (Centropristis striata). Partial cDNA fragments for cyp19a1b and eef1a (a reference gene) were identified, and included with known gnrh2 and gnrh3 sequences in real time quantitative PCR. Elevated cyp19a1b expression was evident in the olfactory bulbs, telencephalon, optic tectum, and hypothalamus/midbrain region during vitellogenic growth, which may indicate changes in the brain related to neurogenesis or sexual behavior. In contrast, gnrh2 and gnrh3 expression levels were largely similar among gonadal states, and all three genes exhibited stable expression during sex change. Although sex change in black sea bass is not associated with dramatic changes in GnRH or cyp19a1b gene expression among brain regions, these genes may mediate processes at other levels, such as within individual hypothalamic nuclei, or through changes in neuron size, that warrant further research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Functional properties of the glycosylated minor hemoglobins A1a-1,A1a-2 and A1b. EPR evidence for increased stability of the low affinity quaternary structure and decreased susceptibility to organic phosphate.

    PubMed

    Nagai, K; Enoki, Y; Kaneko, A; Hori, H

    1980-06-26

    Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectra of the glycosylated minor hemoglobins A1a-1, A1a-2, A1b and A1c and the major hemoglobin A0 in the nitrosyl form have been obtained in the absence and presence of inositol hexaphosphate. In the absence of inositol hexaphosphate, nitrosyl hemoglobins A1a-1, A1a-2 and A1b exhibited a triplet hyperfine structure centered at g = 2.009 which has been shown to be diagnostic of the low affinity (T) quaternary structure. Addition of inositol hexaphosphate to nitrosyl hemoglobins A0, A1c, A1b and A1a-2 developed a triplet hyperfine structure of the EPR spectra but the magnitude of the hyperfine was decreased in the order of hemoglobins A0, A1c, A1b and A1a-2. However, inositol hexaphosphate had essentially no effect on the EPR spectrum of nitrosyl hemoglobin A1a-1. The present results account qualitatively for the oxygen binding properties of these glycosylated minor hemoglobins in the framework of a two-state allosteric model.

  6. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

    PubMed

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  7. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  8. Modeling the Potential Distribution of Bacillus anthracis under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kazakhstan

    PubMed Central

    Joyner, Timothy Andrew; Lukhnova, Larissa; Pazilov, Yerlan; Temiralyeva, Gulnara; Hugh-Jones, Martin E.; Aikimbayev, Alim; Blackburn, Jason K.

    2010-01-01

    Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km2 and 8 km2 and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km2. Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting ∼14–16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting ∼15% loss at 55 km2, ∼34% loss at 8 km2, and ∼30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km2. Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B. anthracis. PMID:20231894

  9. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable

  10. Forecasting the Effects of Land Use Scenarios on Farmland Birds Reveal a Potential Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable

  11. Virulence difference between the prototypic Schu S4 strain (A1a) and Francisella tularensis A1a, A1b, A2 and type B strains in a murine model of infection.

    PubMed

    Molins, Claudia R; Delorey, Mark J; Yockey, Brook M; Young, John W; Belisle, John T; Schriefer, Martin E; Petersen, Jeannine M

    2014-02-06

    The use of prototypic strains is common among laboratories studying infectious agents as it promotes consistency for data comparability among and between laboratories. Schu S4 is the prototypic virulent strain of Francisella tularensis and has been used extensively as such over the past six decades. Studies have demonstrated virulence differences among the two clinically relevant subspecies of F. tularensis, tularensis (type A) and holarctica (type B) and more recently between type A subpopulations (A1a, A1b and A2). Schu S4 belongs to the most virulent subspecies of F. tularensis, subspecies tularensis. In this study, we investigated the relative virulence of Schu S4 in comparison to A1a, A1b, A2 and type B strains using a temperature-based murine model of infection. Mice were inoculated intradermally and a hypothermic drop point was used as a surrogate for death. Survival curves and the length of temperature phases were compared for all infections. Bacterial burdens were also compared between the most virulent type A subpopulation, A1b, and Schu S4 at drop point. Survival curve comparisons demonstrate that the Schu S4 strain used in this study resembles the virulence of type B strains, and is significantly less virulent than all other type A (A1a, A1b and A2) strains tested. Additionally, when bacterial burdens were compared between mice infected with Schu S4 or MA00-2987 (A1b) significantly higher burdens were present in the blood and spleen of mice infected with MA00-2987. The knowledge gained from using Schu S4 as a prototypic virulent strain has unquestionably advanced the field of tularemia research. The findings of this study, however, indicate that careful consideration of F. tularensis strain selection must occur when the overall virulence of the strain used could impact the outcome and interpretation of results.

  12. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  13. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

  14. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    PubMed

    Rao, Mathukumalli Srinivasa; Swathi, Pettem; Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha Rama; Rao, K V; Raju, B M K; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  15. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  16. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  17. [Femicides: concepts, types and scenarios].

    PubMed

    Meneghel, Stela Nazareth; Portella, Ana Paula

    2017-09-01

    This text is a theoretical essay that discusses the concepts, types and scenarios of feminicides, and presents some proposals for the prevention of these premature, unjust and avoidable deaths. The text revisits the original concept of femicide proposed by Diana Russell and Jane Caputti and shows new and old scenarios where these crimes occur. It points to patriarchy, understood as being a hierarchical system of power between men and women, as one of the main determinants of these deaths. It ends by presenting actions and proposals to prevent and combat these gender crimes.

  18. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  19. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segnalini, M.; Bernabucci, U.; Vitali, A.; Nardone, A.; Lacetera, N.

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

  20. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  1. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S.; Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo,Rodovia BR 101 Norte, km. 60, Campus de São Mateus, CEP 29932-540,São Mateus, Espirito Santo; Brandenberger, Robert

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  2. Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodnebrog, Ø.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Koffi, B.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Stordal, F.; Szopa, S.; Tang, Q.; van Velthoven, P.; Williams, J. E.

    2012-08-01

    The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B), and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE), presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000). Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario. As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000. Radiative Forcing (RF) calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a~marginal cooling of -0.38 ± 13 mW m-2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of -32 ± 8.9 (B1) or -31 ± 20 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from -20 ± 5.4 mW m-2 in 2000 to -31 ± 4.8 (B1) or -40 ± 11 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, and from reduced O3 warming from ROAD, which is likely to turn from a positive net RF of 13 ± 7.9 mW m-2 in 2000 to

  3. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  4. Future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change in the United States--the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Griffith, Glenn; Acevedo, William; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Ryan, Christy; Sayler, Kristi L.; Sleeter, Rachel; Soulard, Christopher E.

    2012-01-01

    Detecting, quantifying, and projecting historical and future changes in land use and land cover (LULC) has emerged as a core research area for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Changes in LULC are important drivers of changes to biogeochemical cycles, the exchange of energy between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere, biodiversity, water quality, and climate change. To quantify the rates of recent historical LULC change, the USGS Land Cover Trends project recently completed a unique ecoregion-based assessment of late 20th century LULC change for the western United States. To characterize present LULC, the USGS and partners have created the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the years 1992, 2001, and 2006. Both Land Cover Trends and NLCD projects continue to evolve in an effort to better characterize historical and present LULC conditions and are the foundation of the data presented in this report. Projecting future changes in LULC requires an understanding of the rates and patterns of change, the major driving forces, and the socioeconomic and biophysical determinants and capacities of regions. The data presented in this report is the result of an effort by USGS scientists to downscale the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) to ecoregions of the conterminous United States as part of the USGS Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment. The USGS biological carbon assessment was mandated by Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. As part of the legislative mandate, the USGS is required to publish a methodology describing, in detail, the approach to be used for the assessment. The development of future LULC scenarios is described in chapter 3.2 and appendix A. Spatial modeling is described in chapter 3.3.2 and appendix B and in Sohl and others (2011). In this report, we briefly summarize the major components and methods used to downscale IPCC-SRES scenarios to ecoregions of the

  5. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life.

  6. The disruptive professional case scenarios.

    PubMed

    Metter, Darlene; Harolds, Jay; Rumack, Carol M; Relyea-Chew, Annemarie; Arenson, Ronald

    2008-04-01

    This article examines certain critical aspects relating to the clinical competency of professionalism. A discussion is presented which is centered on an analysis of two fictional scenarios explored from the standpoint of a current and a former program director, an associate dean, a department chair, and a lawyer. These cases are followed by a series of questions and a legal discussion which can then be used for either individual study or group discussion.

  7. Scenario Planning for Coastal Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A.; Obeysekera, J.; Knuuti, K.; Moss, R. H.; Horton, R. M.; Weiss, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a persistent environmental change observed globally for more than a century, and its expected continuation poses significant challenges to the United States (US). We summarize a process associated with the United States National Climate Assessment for identifying four scenarios of global mean sea level rise (SLR). The main finding is that global mean sea level is expected to rise no less than 0.2 meters and no more than 2.0 meters by the end of the century. Recent publications suggest that a 4 C world would result in global mean SLR towards the upper end of that range. Aside from this process, there is currently no coordinated, interagency effort in the US to identify agreed upon global mean sea level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, and management. This is an important gap because identifying global mean SLR estimates is a critical step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. At present, coastal managers are left to identify global SLR estimates through their own interpretation of the scientific literature or the advice of experts on an ad-hoc basis. Yet, relative SLR at over one hundred tide gages (~80%) along the US coast reflect the global trend (1.7 - 3.2 mm/yr). No widely accepted method is currently available for producing probabilistic projections of SLR at actionable scales (i.e., regional to local). The desire to have a most probable or likely outcome can lead to paralysis or inaction for coastal decision-making. Given the range of uncertainty in future global SLR, scenario planning offers an opportunity to overcome decision-making paralysis and initiate actions now that may reduce future impacts and vulnerabilities. Scenarios do not predict future changes, but describe future potential conditions in a manner that supports decision-making under uncertainty. Using multiple scenarios, none more likely than the other, encourages experts and decision makers to rehearse multiple, plausible futures

  8. Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis.

    PubMed

    Vermaat, Jan E; Hellmann, Fritz A; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; van Minnen, Jelle; Alkemade, Rob; Billeter, Regula; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Boitani, Luigi; Cabeza, Mar; Feld, Christian K; Huntley, Brian; Paterson, James; WallisDeVries, Michiel F

    2017-04-01

    Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of 'Continental Europe'. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50-100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40-50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence

  9. Electron transfer from the A1A and A1B sites to a tethered Pt nanoparticle requires the FeS clusters for suppression of the recombination channel.

    PubMed

    Gorka, Michael; Perez, Adam; Baker, Carol S; Ferlez, Bryan; van der Est, Art; Bryant, Donald A; Golbeck, John H

    2015-11-01

    In this work, a previously described model of electron withdrawal from the A1A/A1B sites of Photosystem I (PS I) was tested using a dihydrogen-producing PS I-NQ(CH2)15S-Pt nanoconstruct. According to this model, the rate of electron transfer from A1A/A1B to a tethered Pt nanoparticle is kinetically unfavorable relative to the rate of forward electron transfer to the FeS clusters. Dihydrogen is produced only when an external donor rapidly reduces P700(+), thereby suppressing the recombination channel and allowing the electron in the FeS clusters to proceed via uphill electron transfer through the A1A/A1B quinones to the Pt nanoparticle. We tested this model by sequentially removing the FeS clusters, FB, FA, and FX, and determining the concentration of cytochrome c6 (Cyt c6) at which the backreaction was outcompeted and dihydrogen production was observed. P700-FA cores were generated in a menB insertionally inactivated strain by removing FB with HgCl2; P700-FX cores were generated in a menB psaC insertionally inactivated strain that lacks FA and FB, and P700-A1 cores were generated in a menB rubA insertionally inactivated strain that lacks FX, FA and FB. Quinone incorporation was measured using transient electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy and time resolved optical spectroscopy. Cyt c6 was titrated into each of these PS I preparations and the kinetics of P700(+) reduction were measured. A similar experiment was carried out on PS I-NQ(CH2)15S-Pt nanoconstructs assembled from these PS I preparations. This study showed that the concentration of Cyt c6 needed to produce dihydrogen was comparable to that needed to suppress the backreaction. We conclude that the FeS clusters serve to 'park' the electron and thereby extend the duration of the charge-separated state; however, in doing so, the redox advantage of removing the electron at A1A/A1B is lost. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  11. TCL2 Ocean Scenario Replay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mohlenbrink, Christoph P.; Omar, Faisal Gamal; Homola, Jeffrey R.

    2017-01-01

    This is a video replay of system data that was generated from the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Technical Capability Level (TCL) 2 flight demonstration in Nevada and rendered in Google Earth. What is depicted in the replay is a particular set of flights conducted as part of what was referred to as the Ocean scenario. The test range and surrounding area are presented followed by an overview of operational volumes. System messaging is also displayed as well as a replay of all of the five test flights as they occurred.

  12. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  13. A scenario for polio eradication.

    PubMed

    Arita, I

    2001-01-01

    Polio eradication has entered the phase operating in the Asian sub-continent and in sub-Saharan Africa, where polio is still endemic in 30 countries. These countries are apparently most resistant to the eradication effort. The WHO polio panel held in May, in Geneva, discussed a scenario to stop transmission by 2002 and thereafter three years for certification. This paper discusses the scenario based on experience with smallpox eradication from the viewpoint of impact of population density on immunisation. The programme in the Indian sub-continent, which has the world's highest population density, may require a more rigorous surveillance-containment type strategy than that in sub-Saharan Africa which, with its lower density of population in many countries, may be relatively susceptible to the eradication effort. However, countries with higher population density and/or with political trouble may pose substantial difficulties. Also briefly discussed are measures to be taken after interruption of polio transmission world-wide. These still require intensive studies. The goal is foreseeable and with intensified mobilisation of global resources.

  14. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk in Irish catchments to the range of IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bastola, Satish; Murphy, Conor; Sweeney, John

    2011-11-15

    In the face of increased flood risk responsible authorities have set out safety margins to incorporate climate change impacts in building robust flood infrastructure. Using the case study of four catchments in Ireland, this study subjects such design allowances to a sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty inherent in estimates of future flood risk. Uncertainty in flood quantiles is quantified using regionalised climate scenarios derived from a large number of GCMs (17), forced with three SRES emissions scenarios. In terms of hydrological response uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maximia series. Sensitivity results show that for low frequency events, the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greater than for more frequent events, with considerable implications for critical infrastructure. Peak flows for the five return periods assessed were found to be less sensitive to temperature and subsequently to potential evaporation (PET) than to rainfall. The average width of the uncertainty range for changes in flood magnitude is greater for low frequency events than for high frequency events. In all catchments there is a progressive increase in the peak flows associated with the 5, 25, 50 and 100-year return periods when moving from the 2020s to the 2080s. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  16. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  17. Multiscale analysis of rainfall over France in a climate scenario: Importance of seasonal variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Lovejoy, Shaun; Schertzer, Daniel; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia

    2010-05-01

    As a preliminary attempt to apply multifractal techniques to climate model simulations, Royer et al (2008) have analyzed the temporal scaling of daily rainfall time series over France simulated by the CNRM-CM3 coupled climate model in an IPCC scenario (SRES) A2 over the period 1860-2100. The scaling variability of the simulated daily rainfall, quantified with the "universal multifractal" formalism by means of a few relevant multifractal exponents characterizing the intermittency and multifractality of the field as determined by the Double Trace Moment (DTM), have shown a scaling range extending from one day to more than 16 days. Though opposite trends found in the evolution of the intermittency and multifractality exponents tend to have compensating effects on the evolution of rainfall extremes, the dominant effect of the increasing intermittency leads to expect an effective enhancement of rainfall extremes for the next hundred years. In this presentation, the analysis is extended by taking into consideration the seasonal effects. Comparison of the different periods shows that in winter there is rather little change in the two parameters, except in the southern part of France. In summer however, though the geographical patterns remain rather stable, a large and systematic evolution can be seen between the successive time spans, with an increase of multifractality and a decrease of intermittency over the 21st century. This new analysis shows that the overall trends found previously in analyzing the precipitation series over the whole year are mainly produced by the variations during the summer season. The very differentiated seasonal evolution in the response of precipitation to climate change, highligh that it is necessary to take into account a seasonal evolution of the multifractal parameters for characterizing the scaling properties of the rainfall fields. In particular the changes in the scaling properties of precipitation seem to be more prominent during

  18. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  19. The 5-HT1A/1B-receptor agonist eltoprazine increases both catecholamine release in the prefrontal cortex and dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens and decreases motivation for reward and "waiting" impulsivity, but increases "stopping" impulsivity.

    PubMed

    Korte, S Mechiel; Prins, Jolanda; Van den Bergh, Filip S; Oosting, Ronald S; Dupree, Rudy; Korte-Bouws, Gerdien A H; Westphal, Koen G C; Olivier, Berend; Denys, Damiaan A; Garland, Alexis; Güntürkün, Onur

    2017-01-05

    The 5-HT 1A/1B -receptor agonist eltoprazine has a behavioral drug signature that resembles that of a variety of psychostimulant drugs, despite the differences in receptor binding profile. These psychostimulants are effective in treating impulsivity disorders, most likely because they increase norepinephrine (NE) and dopamine (DA) levels in the prefrontal cortex. Both amphetamine and methylphenidate, however, also increase dopamine levels in the nucleus accumbens (NAc), which has a significant role in motivation, pleasure, and reward. How eltoprazine affects monoamine release in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), and the NAc is unknown. It is also unknown whether eltoprazine affects different forms of impulsivity and brain reward mechanisms. Therefore, in the present study, we investigate the effects of eltoprazine in rats in the following sequence: 1) the activity of the monoaminergic systems using in vivo microdialysis, 2) motivation for reward measured using the intracranial self-stimulation (ICSS) procedure, and finally, 3) "waiting" impulsivity in the delay-aversion task, and the "stopping" impulsivity in the stop-signal task. The microdialysis studies clearly showed that eltoprazine increased DA and NE release in both the mPFC and OFC, but only increased DA concentration in the NAc. In contrast, eltoprazine decreased 5-HT release in the mPFC and NAc (undetectable in the OFC). Remarkably, eltoprazine decreased impulsive choice, but increased impulsive action. Furthermore, brain stimulation was less rewarding following eltoprazine treatment. These results further support the long-standing hypothesis that "waiting" and "stopping" impulsivity are regulated by distinct neural circuits, because 5-HT 1A/1B -receptor activation decreases impulsive choice, but increases impulsive action. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Up-regulation of gonadotropin mRNA-expression at the onset of gametogenesis in the roach (Rutilus rutilus): evidence for an important role of brain-type aromatase (cyp19a1b) in the pituitary.

    PubMed

    Trubiroha, Achim; Kroupova, Hana; Wuertz, Sven; Kloas, Werner

    2012-09-15

    The present study characterized changes in key parameters of reproduction in adult roach (Rutilus rutilus) from Lake Grosser Mueggelsee (Berlin, Germany) during natural gametogenesis. Fish of both sexes were sampled in monthly intervals between April and August in order to cover the onset of gametogenesis. Investigated parameters included gonad histology, plasma levels of 17β-oestradiol (E2), testosterone (T), 11-ketotestosterone (11-KT), and 17,20β-dihydroxy-4-pregnen-3-one (17,20β-P) as well as the expression of gonadotropin subunits in the pituitary. Furthermore, the mRNA-expression of brain-type aromatase (cyp19a1b), androgen receptor (ar), and estrogen receptor isoforms was studied at the pituitary level. The onset of gametogenesis - as indicated by follicles with cortical alveoli in females and first spermatogonia B in males - was observed in July, accompanied by a significant up-regulation of follicle-stimulating hormone β (fshβ) mRNA in the pituitary in both sexes. On the other hand, luteinizing hormone β (lhβ) mRNA increased later on in August. In males, the increase of fshβ mRNA in July coincided with a rise in plasma 11-KT concentrations. In females, E2 in plasma increased later, not until August, shortly before true vitellogenesis (late cortical alveoli stage). Expression of sex steroid receptors in the pituitary revealed only minor seasonal fluctuations. Most pronounced, ar mRNA displayed the highest level pre-spawning in both sexes. Interestingly, cyp19a1b mRNA-expression in the pituitary increased in parallel with fshβ already before any changes in plasma E2 or T occurred. These data suggest an important role of pituitary FSH and aromatase at the onset of gametogenesis in the roach. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  2. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    DOE PAGES

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scalesmore » and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.« less

  3. Agricultural Baseline (BL0) scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, Maggie R.; Hellwinckel, Chad M; Eaton, Laurence

    2016-07-13

    Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the reference case for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios. The agricultural baseline runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used. Date the data set was last modified: 02/12/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: simulation was developed without offering a farmgate price to energy crops or residues (i.e., building on both the USDA 2015 baseline and the agricultural census data (USDA NASS 2014). Data generated are .txt output files by year, simulation identifier, county code (1-3109). Instrumentsmore » used: POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B) supplied by the University of Tennessee APAC The quality assurance and quality control that have been applied: • Check for negative planted area, harvested area, production, yield and cost values. • Check if harvested area exceeds planted area for annuals. • Check FIPS codes.« less

  4. Agricultural Baseline (BL0) scenario

    DOE Data Explorer

    Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinckel, Chad M [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154)

    2016-07-13

    Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the reference case for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios. The agricultural baseline runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used. Date the data set was last modified: 02/12/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: simulation was developed without offering a farmgate price to energy crops or residues (i.e., building on both the USDA 2015 baseline and the agricultural census data (USDA NASS 2014). Data generated are .txt output files by year, simulation identifier, county code (1-3109). Instruments used: POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B) supplied by the University of Tennessee APAC The quality assurance and quality control that have been applied: • Check for negative planted area, harvested area, production, yield and cost values. • Check if harvested area exceeds planted area for annuals. • Check FIPS codes.

  5. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  6. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  7. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

  8. Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2014-09-15

    Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p < 0.05). However, pessimistic land use scenario led to significant increases on an annual basis (turbidity: +11.6%, FC: +15.2%; p < 0.05). Additional simulations conducted for the late 21st century (2090) revealed that climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Jacinto, Rita; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2017-04-01

    The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% annual rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply by streamflow (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with constraints on irrigation supply (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although they were partially mitigated by lower losses due to storage excess discharge. However, land-use changes also decreased water quality by increasing sediment loads (+86 to +109%) and associated Phosphorus loads (+28 to +48%). This was mostly due to a projected replacement of existing pastures by sunflower cultivation for biodiesel, which was the major source of increased erosion. The combination of lower volumes and higher sediment and P flows also increased P concentrations in the reservoir (+29 to +93%), increasing conditions for eutrophication. Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes alone. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by improved supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; future water quality issues, however, could be addressed through land-use policies aiming at soil

  10. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    to mean trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.« less

  11. 6 HCV Genotyping 9G test for HCV 1a, 1b, 2, 3, 4 and 6 (6a, 6f, 6i and 6n) with high accuracy.

    PubMed

    Chantratita, Wasun; Song, Keum-Soo; Nimse, Satish Balasaheb; Pongthanapisith, Viroj; Thongbaiphet, Nipa; Wongtabtim, Garanyuta; Pasomsub, Ekawat; Angkanavin, Kanokwan; Sonawane, Mukesh Digambar; Warkad, Shrikant Dasharath; Kim, Taisun

    2017-08-01

    According to EASL guidelines and WHO recommendations, the accurate detection of HCV genotypes such as HCV 1a, HCV1b, HCV 2, HCV 3, HCV 4, and HCV 6 (6a, 6f, 6i, 6n) is crucial for the efficient treatment of hepatitis C. HCV Genotyping 9G test allows simultaneous genotyping of HCV 1a, 1b, 2, 3, 4, and 6 (6a, 6f, 6i, and 6n) in clinical samples in 30min. The performance of the test was evaluated by comparison with sequence analysis. Serum samples (n=152) from HCV-infected patients (n=110) and healthy individuals (n=42) were processed under blinded codes. The k coefficient (kappa) values indicated high agreement between the HCV Genotyping 9G test and sequencing. The sensitivity and specificity of the test were 99.1% and 99.7%, respectively. The results indicate that HCV Genotyping 9G test is rapid, reliable, sensitive, and accurate for screening and genotyping of HCV in the clinical specimens. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. High Resolution Spectroscopy of A^1B1u ← X^1A_g 8^1_04^1_0 Band of Naphthalene Referenced to AN Optical Frequency Comb

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakashima, Kazuki; Nishiyama, Akiko; Misono, Masatoshi

    2016-06-01

    In the excited vibronic states of naphthalene, there exist various interesting interactions such as intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR), intersystem crossing (ISC), and internal conversion (IC). More than thirty yeas ago, Beck et al. showed that IVR became remarkable when the excess energy exceeded about 2000 cm-1^, ^a. In the present study, we observe Doppler-free two-photon absorption spectra of A^1B1u ← X^1A_g 8^1_04^1_0 band of naphthalene around 34281 cm-1. The excess energy is 2261 cm-1, which is just above the threshold of IVR. Thus we expect this band is suitable to analyze the dynamics in the excited vibronic states. In our experiment, the spectral resolution is about 100 kHz, and rovibronic lines are well-resolved. To decide the transition frequencies, frequency shifts, and spectral linewidths with high accuracy and precision, we employed the comb-referenced Doppler-free two-photon absorption spectroscopic system^b. We proceed to assign the rovibronic lines in ^qQ transition, and to determine molecular constants in the excited vibronic state. ^a S. M. Beck, J. B. Hopkins, D. E. Powers, and R. E. Smalley, J. Chem. Phys. 74, 43(1981). ^b A. Nishiyama, K. Nakashima, A. Matsuba, and M. Misono, J. Mol. Spectrosc. 318, 40 (2015).

  13. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez, B.; Sánchez, O.; Monterroso, A.; Rosales, G.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning of the research work for the Fourth National Communication, to ensure that those criteria were fulfilled. Specifically, a set of climate change scenarios was generated using the outputs for temperature and precipitation of three General Circulation Models (GCMs): ECHAM5, HADGEM1 y GFDL CM2.0, for the horizons 2030 and 2050, and for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, B2 y B1. Those scenarios can be found in our web page in a low spatial resolution (2.5 º x 2.5º), and with high resolution (5’ x 5’). To assess the potential impacts on rainfed maize agriculture, the changes of the suitability of different regions in the country were evaluated, considering maize temperature and precipitation requirements at its different stages of development. Four categories of suitability (high, moderated, marginal, and no suitable) were characterized for current and future climatic conditions. Using the A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the three GCMs and the horizon 2050, results showed that around 67% of

  14. Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

  15. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  16. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  17. Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    Scenario Study Phase II Report: Assessment and Development of Alternatives for Satisfying Unclassified Scenario Need (IDA Paper P- 4537 ).1 Additional...Unclassified Scenario Need (P- 4537 ), Institute for Defense Analyses, To Be Published in 2010. 2 Jason A. Dechant and James S. Thomason et al., Open...Report: Assessment and Development of Alternatives for Satisfying Unclassified Scenario Need (IDA P- 4537 ) (Adobe® PDF file) • IDA Paper Open

  18. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  19. ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan.

    PubMed

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Semenov, Mikhail A; Nishimori, Motoki; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo

    2012-03-13

    We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981-2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile-quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081-2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.

  20. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  1. 5-HT1A/1B, 5-HT6, and 5-HT7 serotonergic receptors recruitment in tonic-clonic seizure-induced antinociception: role of dorsal raphe nucleus.

    PubMed

    Freitas, Renato Leonardo; Ferreira, Célio Marcos dos Reis; Urbina, Maria Angélica Castiblanco; Mariño, Andrés Uribe; Carvalho, Andressa Daiane; Butera, Giuseppe; de Oliveira, Ana Maria; Coimbra, Norberto Cysne

    2009-05-01

    Pharmacological studies have been focused on the involvement of different neural pathways in the organization of antinociception that follows tonic-clonic seizures, including 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)-, norepinephrine-, acetylcholine- and endogenous opioid peptide-mediated mechanisms, giving rise to more in-depth comprehension of this interesting post-ictal antinociceptive phenomenon. The present work investigated the involvement of 5-HT(1A/1B), 5-HT(6), and 5-HT(7) serotonergic receptors through peripheral pretreatment with methiothepin at doses of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 mg/kg in the organization of the post-ictal antinociception elicited by pharmacologically (with pentylenetetrazole at 64 mg/kg)-induced tonic-clonic seizures. Methiothepin at 1.0 mg/kg blocked the post-ictal antinociception recorded after the end of seizures, whereas doses of 2.0 and 3.0 mg/kg potentiated the post-ictal antinociception. The nociceptive thresholds were kept higher than those of the control group. However, when the same 5-hydroxytryptamine receptors antagonist was microinjected (at 1.0, 3.0 and 5.0 microg/0.2 microL) in the dorsal raphe nucleus, a mesencephalic structure rich in serotonergic neurons and 5-HT receptors, the post-ictal hypo-analgesia was consistently antagonized. The present findings suggest a dual effect of methiothepin, characterized by a disinhibitory effect on the post-ictal antinociception when peripherally administered (possibly due to an antagonism of pre-synaptic 5-HT(1A) serotonergic autoreceptors in the pain endogenous inhibitory system) and an inhibitory effect (possibly due to a DRN post-synaptic 5-HT(1B), 5-HT(6), and 5-HT(7) serotonergic receptors blockade) when centrally administered. The present data also suggest that serotonin-mediated mechanisms of the dorsal raphe nucleus exert a key-role in the modulation of the post-ictal antinociception.

  2. Rapid detection of HCV genotyping 1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, 3b and 6a in a single reaction using two-melting temperature codes by a real-time PCR-based assay.

    PubMed

    Athar, Muhammad Ammar; Xu, Ye; Xie, Xiaoting; Xu, Zhenxing; Ahmad, Vakil; Hayder, Zulfiqar; Hussain, Syed Sajid; Liao, Yiqun; Li, Qingge

    2015-09-15

    The genotype of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an important indicator for antiviral therapeutic response. We hereby described development of a rapid HCV genotyping approach that enabled the identification of the six most common HCV subtypes of Asia, i.e., 1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, 3b, and 6a, in a single reaction. Using two dual-labeled, self-quenched probes that target the core region of the HCV genome, the exact subtype could be accurately identified by two-melting temperature codes determined from the two respective probes in a real-time PCR assay. Analytical sensitivity studies using armored RNA samples representing each of the six HCV subtypes showed that 5 copies/reaction of HCV RNA could be detected. The assay was evaluated using 244 HCV-positive serum samples and the results were compared with sequencing analysis. Of the 224 samples, subtype 3a (127, 52.3%) was the dominant, followed by 1b (51, 20.9%), 3b (47, 19.3%), 2a (8, 3.3%), 6a (4, 1.6%) and the least was subtype 1a (1, 0.4%). Moreover, 6 (2.5%) mixed infection samples were also detected. These results were fully concordant with sequencing analysis. We concluded that this real-time PCR-based assay could provide a rapid and reliable tool for routine HCV genotyping in most Asian countries. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  4. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  5. Scenarios for the Evolution of Asteroid Belts

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2012-11-01

    This illustration shows three possible scenarios for the evolution of asteroid belts. At the top, a Jupiter-size planet migrates through the asteroid belt, scattering material and inhibiting the formation of life on planets.

  6. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016965 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  7. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016970 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (right) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  8. Kondratyev and Skripochka during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016976 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonauts Dmitry Kondratyev (left) and Oleg Skripochka, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, look over a procedures manual during an emergency scenarios drill in the Harmony node of the International Space Station.

  9. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016963 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  10. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  11. Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.

    SciTech Connect

    Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

    2008-08-01

    A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

  12. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    PubMed

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  13. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  14. The Future of Scenarios: Issues in Developing New Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-06-01

    Research, analysis and commnetary since the release of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios has suggested a number of areas, e.g. rates of economic growth, downscaling and scenario likelihood, where additional research would make the next set of scenarios of greater use and increased credibility. This essary reviews the work on the areas mentioned above and makes suggestions about possible ways to improve the next set of climate scenarios, to be developed by the research community without a specific IPCC terms of reference to guide the work.

  15. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  16. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  17. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  18. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  19. Global climate simulations with the A1F1 scenario for 2000-2100: Meltwater, temperature and river flow impacts in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, D. J.; Branstetter, M. L.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Ganguly, A. R.; Hoffman, F. M.; King, A. W.; Buja, L.; Panwar, T. S.

    2008-05-01

    Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the SRES A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. We find temperature increases of 3-9oC over Northern India by the end of this century. We will discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as the climate evolves from 2000-2100. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will compare our new insights with the existing literature. Climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover have indicated increased cloud cover and precipitation, resulting in decreased incident radiation and higher latent heat fluxes, in India during June, July and August by 2050 (Feddema et al., 2005). Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events (Krishna Kumar et al., 2006), studied the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming (Kripalini et al., 2003) on IMR, as well as demonstrated an increasing trend of extreme rain events in a warming environment (Goswami et al., 2006). In addition, the vulnerability of the Indian agriculture sector to climate change was analyzed and mapped at district-levels by combining with multiple global stressors (O'Brien et al., 2004). [[References::: (1) Feddema, J.J., Oleson, K.W., Bonan, G.B., Mearns, L.O., Buja, L.E., Meehl, G.A., and W.M. Washington (2005): The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates, Science, 310 (5754): 1674-1678, 9 December

  20. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  1. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  2. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Lewis, John R.; Brooks, Dusty Marie

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application ofmore » the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.« less

  3. Characteristics of hybrid scenarios in KSTAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Youngho; Byun, Cheol-Sik; Na, Yong-Su; Kstar Team

    2017-10-01

    We report the characteristics of hybrid scenarios under development in KSTAR. Firstly, detailed definition of the hybrid scenario in KSTAR is described and categorized according to the MHD activities. The discharges exhibiting H89 >1.9, betaN >2.2 sustained more than 5*tauE at q95 <6.5 without or mild sawtooth are classified into the hybrid regime. Fishbones and neoclassical tearing modes are usually observed in this regime. Improved confinement in this regime is also confirmed with comparing general H-mode in KSTAR. Secondly, several experimental approaches are presented to access the hybrid regime. Here, four different recipes are described. Thirdly, the origin of the confinement enhancement is discussed. The role of the plasma rotation is found to be small in experiments where electron cyclotron heating is applied to reduce the toroidal rotation. The pedestal enhancement is thought to be the main reason for the confinement improvement in KSTAR hybrid scenarios.

  4. Scenarios for the making of vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Holland, Nicholas D; Holland, Linda Z; Holland, Peter W H

    2015-04-23

    Over the past 200 years, almost every invertebrate phylum has been proposed as a starting point for evolving vertebrates. Most of these scenarios are outdated, but several are still seriously considered. The short-range transition from ancestral invertebrate chordates (similar to amphioxus and tunicates) to vertebrates is well accepted. However, longer-range transitions leading up to the invertebrate chordates themselves are more controversial. Opinion is divided between the annelid and the enteropneust scenarios, predicting, respectively, a complex or a simple ancestor for bilaterian animals. Deciding between these ideas will be facilitated by further comparative studies of multicellular animals, including enigmatic taxa such as xenacoelomorphs.

  5. Future Flood Inundation and Damages from Storm Surge in the Coast of Virginia and Maryland with Projected Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezaie, A. M.; Ferreira, C.; Walls, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The recurrent flood risks on coastal areas in the United States (US) due to hurricane wind and storm surge are likely to rise with warmer climate, frequent storms, and increasing coastal population. Recent studies suggested that the global financial losses from hurricanes will be doubled by 2100 due to combined impact of climate change, sea level rise (SLR) and intensified hurricanes. While the predicted average SLR for the Mid-Atlantic region of the US is 2.2 meter, some coastal areas in Virginia (VA) and Maryland (MD) are expected to experience a 0.7 to 1.6m and 0.6 to 1.7m SLR respectively. Nearly 80 percent of the total $5.3 billion property damage by Hurricane Isabel in 2003 was within VA and MD. In order to provide a quantitative assessment of the future flooding and associated damages for projected climate change and SLR scenarios, this study integrated state-of-the-art coastal numerical model ADCIRC with a careful economic valuation exercise of flood damages. The study area covers the entire coastal zone of VA and MD focusing on regions that are in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean with high susceptibility to storm surge and flooding. Multiple climate change land cover scenarios generated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) under a series of the IPCC's Emissions Scenarios are incorporated in the modeling approach to integrate climate change whereas local SLR projections are included to provide the regional aspects of future risks. Preliminary results for hurricane Isabel (2003) shows that a 2.3m rise in sea level can cause storm surges rising up to 3-4m in the coastal areas. While a 0.5m SLR makes the range 1-2.5m in the affected areas. It is also seen that higher increase in the sea level not only causes higher range of inundation but a greater extent of flood as well. The projected inland flooding extents are highest for the SRES A2 Scenario. Alongside an estimate of future loss and damage will be prepared to assist in

  6. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  7. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  8. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  9. Chemical Data Reporting Byproduct and Recycling Scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document addresses a series of 18 industry scenarios and questions related to EPA’s Chemical Data Reporting (CDR) rule. The primary goal of this document is to help the regulated community comply with the requirements of the CDR rule.

  10. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  11. Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jane; And Others

    This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and…

  12. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  13. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  14. Scenarios of land cover in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  15. Iterative Mechanism Solutions with Scenario and ADAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhoades, Daren

    2006-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of iterative solutions using Scenario for Motion (UG NX 2 Motion) to assist in designing the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The MSL will have very unique design requirements, and in order to meet these requirements the system must have the ability to design for static stability, simulate mechanism kinematics, simulate dynamic behaviour and be capable of reconfiguration, and iterations as designed. The legacy process used on the Mars Exploration rovers worked, but it was cumbersome using multiple tools, limited configuration control, with manual process and communication, and multiple steps. The aim is to develop a mechanism that would reduce turn around time, and make more reiterations possible, to improve the quality and quantity of data, and to enhance configuration control. Currently for NX Scenario for Motion uses are in the articulation studies, the simulations of traverse motions,and subsystem simulations. The design of the Rover landing model requires accurate results, flexible elements, such as beams, and the use of the full ADAMS solver has been used. In order to achieve this, when required, there has been a direct translation from Scenario to ADAMS, with additional data in ascii format. The process that has been designed to move from Scenario to ADAMS is reviewed.

  16. The Scenario of Gifted Education in Brazil

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wechsler, Solange Muglia; Fleith, Denise de Souza

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of gifted education in Brazil. A scenario of the education of the gifted is presented, including the official concept of giftedness as well as programs and services available to emphasize important contributions to the area. Although there are considerable advances regarding policies, practices,…

  17. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  18. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  19. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  20. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  1. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  2. Generating moment matching scenarios using optimization techniques

    DOE PAGES

    Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, Dávid

    2013-05-16

    An optimization based method is proposed to generate moment matching scenarios for numerical integration and its use in stochastic programming. The main advantage of the method is its flexibility: it can generate scenarios matching any prescribed set of moments of the underlying distribution rather than matching all moments up to a certain order, and the distribution can be defined over an arbitrary set. This allows for a reduction in the number of scenarios and allows the scenarios to be better tailored to the problem at hand. The method is based on a semi-infinite linear programming formulation of the problem thatmore » is shown to be solvable with polynomial iteration complexity. A practical column generation method is implemented. The column generation subproblems are polynomial optimization problems; however, they need not be solved to optimality. It is found that the columns in the column generation approach can be efficiently generated by random sampling. The number of scenarios generated matches a lower bound of Tchakaloff's. The rate of convergence of the approximation error is established for continuous integrands, and an improved bound is given for smooth integrands. Extensive numerical experiments are presented in which variants of the proposed method are compared to Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods on both numerical integration problems and stochastic optimization problems. The benefits of being able to match any prescribed set of moments, rather than all moments up to a certain order, is also demonstrated using optimization problems with 100-dimensional random vectors. Here, empirical results show that the proposed approach outperforms Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo based approaches on the tested problems.« less

  3. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  4. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  5. Curvaton scenarios with inflaton decays into curvatons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrnes, Christian T.; Cortês, Marina; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2016-09-01

    We consider the possible decay of the inflaton into curvaton particles during reheating and analyze its effect on curvaton scenarios. Typical decay curvatons are initially relativistic then become nonrelativistic, changing the background history of the Universe. We show that this change to the background is the only way in which observational predictions of the scenario are modified. Moreover, once the required amplitude of perturbations is fixed by observation there are no signatures of such decays in other cosmological observables. The decay curvatons can prevent the Universe from becoming dominated by the curvaton condensate, making it impossible to match observations in parts of parameter space. This constrains the branching ratio of the inflaton to curvaton to be less than of order 0.1 typically. If the branching ratio is below about 10-4 it has negligible impact on the model parameter space and can be ignored.

  6. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    PubMed

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. © 2011 IEEE

  7. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  8. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example.more » The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.« less

  9. New procedure of generation of action scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staniszewski, Michał; Wereszczyński, Kamil; Michalczuk, Agnieszka; Fernes, Daniel; Segen, Jakub; Kulbacki, Marek; Wojciechowski, Konrad

    2017-07-01

    Algorithms of tracking and action recognition are still under development and many problems still have to be solved. New methods are usually tested on available benchmarks with defined actions and human behavior however such approach has many limitations. For that reason the authors proposed new procedure of generating random action instances using on graph-based scenarios. Such idea can be applied in creation of different datasets as well as in simulations.

  10. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  11. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  12. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  13. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  14. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  15. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  16. The HayWired earthquake scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  17. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  18. The Extent to Which Different 100% Clean, Renewable Energy Transition Scenarios can Reduce World Carbon Dioxide Levels to 350-400 ppmv by 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, M. Z.; Byrne, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on CO2's natural and anthropogenic emission rates and its removal rates by primarily water dissolution, photosysnthesis, and weathering. We compare modeled past CO2 from 1750 to 2015 with data then model projected future changes in CO2 under different energy emission scenarios, including two where 100% of the world's all-purpose energy (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture/forestry/fishing) is electrified, and the electricity is powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The scenarios are derived from country-by-country energy roadmaps found at http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html. In one 100% scenario, 80% of the conversion is assumed to occur by 2030 and 100%, by 2050. In the second, 80% is assumed to occur by 2050, and the rest by 2100. We also compare with an unrealistic but best-case 100% conversion scenario starting in 2015 and IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, B1, B2, and A1F1. Results will be shown, and conclusions, drawn about the practicality of reducing CO2 to 350-400 ppmv by 2100. These results have significant impact on current and future energy policy.

  19. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While themore » shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.« less

  20. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  1. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  2. Naturalness in testable type II seesaw scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dev, P. S. Bhupal; Vila, Clara Miralles; Rodejohann, Werner

    2017-08-01

    New physics coupling to the Higgs sector of the Standard Model can lead to dangerously large corrections to the Higgs mass. We investigate this problem in the type II seesaw model for neutrino mass, where a weak scalar triplet is introduced. The interplay of direct and indirect constraints on the type II seesaw model with its contribution to the Higgs mass is analyzed. The focus lies on testable triplet masses and (sub) eV-scale triplet vacuum expectation values. We identify scenarios that are testable in collider and/or lepton flavor violation experiments, while satisfying the Higgs naturalness criterion.

  3. Frontal impact response for pole crash scenarios.

    PubMed

    Lockhart, Philip A; Cronin, Duane S; Watson, Brock

    2013-01-01

    Vehicle impacts with fixed roadside structures, such as poles, constitute a significant portion of road fatalities in North America. The purpose of this study was to evaluate occupant response in pole crash scenarios and compare the current vehicle kinematic-based injury metrics to occupant-based metrics to determine whether the vehicle metrics are representative of the injury levels sustained by an occupant. To better understand vehicle and occupant response during impact with a pole, frontal crash scenarios with 3 common pole types (a rigid pole, a rigid pole with a frangible base, and a deforming or energy-absorbing pole) were investigated at various impact velocities. A numerical model of a Hybrid III human surrogate was integrated with a numerical model of a mid-size sedan, including improvements to the vehicle and seat models, and implementation of an air bag and restraint system. The vehicle model was validated using the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) frontal crash data for varying impact velocities into a rigid wall. A numerical model of a high-energy-absorbing pole was developed and validated, along with a rigid pole and a previously developed breakaway pole, to examine the effects of pole compliance on the vehicle and occupant response. Occupant response was investigated at varying impact velocities with the poles aligned with the vehicle centerline. Offset impacts were then investigated with the energy-absorbing pole aligned with the driver-side crush structure. The vehicle kinematic response metrics currently used to evaluate poles were compared to the currently accepted occupant injury response metrics and it was found, in general, that the occupant-based injury criteria predicted lesser injury than the vehicle kinematic response metrics for the same impact scenario. Specifically, the occupant impact velocity provided trends that differed from all other metrics. This can be attributed in part to the improvement in vehicle

  4. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Politzer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A. C. C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V. V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.; the ITPA Integrated Operation Scenario Topical Group Members; the ASDEX-Upgrade Team; the DIII-D Team; EFDA Contributors, JET; the JT-60U Team

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prospects for applications in ITER have been advanced significantly during that time, especially with respect to experimental results. The principal findings of this research activity are as follows. Inductive scenarios capable of higher normalized pressure (βN ⩾ 2.4) than the ITER baseline scenario (βN = 1.8) with normalized confinement at or above the standard H-mode scaling are well established under stationary conditions on the four largest diverted tokamaks (AUG, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U), demonstrated in a database of more than 500 plasmas from these tokamaks analysed here. The parameter range where high performance is achieved is broad in q95 and density normalized to the empirical density limit. MHD modes can play a key role in reaching stationary high performance, but also define the limits to achieved stability and confinement. Projection of performance in ITER from existing experiments uses empirical scalings and theory-based modelling. The status of the experimental validation of both approaches is summarized here. The database shows significant variation in the energy confinement normalized to standard H-mode confinement scalings, indicating the possible influence of additional physics variables absent from the scalings. Tests using the available information on rotation and the ratio of the electron and ion temperatures indicate neither of these variables in isolation can explain the variation in normalized confinement observed. Trends in the normalized confinement with the two dimensionless parameters that vary most from present-day experiments to ITER, gyroradius and collision frequency, are significant. Regression analysis on the multi-tokamak database has been

  5. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    PubMed

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Development of the ITER baseline inductive scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casper, T.; Gribov, Y.; Kavin, A.; Lukash, V.; Khayrutdinov, R.; Fujieda, H.; Kessel, C.; ITER Organization; ITER Domestic Agencies

    2014-01-01

    Sustainment of Q ˜ 10 operation with a fusion power of ˜500 MW for several hundred seconds is a key mission goal of the ITER Project. Past calculations and simulations predict that these conditions can be produced in high-confinement mode operation (H-mode) at 15 MA relying on only inductive current drive. Earlier development of 15 MA baseline inductive plasma scenarios provided a focal point for the ITER Design Review conducted in 2007-2008. In the intervening period, detailed predictive simulations, supported by experimental demonstrations in existing tokamaks, allow us to assemble an end-to-end specification of this scenario consistent with the final design of the ITER device. Simulations have encompassed plasma initiation, current ramp-up, plasma burn and current ramp-down, and have included density profiles and thermal transport models producing temperature profiles consistent with edge pedestal conditions present in current fusion experiments. These quasi-stationary conditions are maintained due to the presence of edge-localized modes that limit the edge pressure. High temperatures and densities in the pedestal region produce significant edge bootstrap current that must be considered in modelling of feedback control of shape and vertical stability. In this paper we present new results of transport simulations fully consistent with the final ITER design that remain within allowed limits for the coil system and power supplies. These self-consistent simulations increase our confidence in meeting the challenges of the ITER program.

  7. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenariosmore » with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale M H± to the scale M S. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  8. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  9. Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Cumberbatch, Daniel; Austri, Roberto Ruiz de

    2012-01-01

    The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the ''Nightmare scenario'' of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able tomore » conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb{sup −1} of integrated luminosity at 14 TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as ≅ 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.« less

  10. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  11. Multiple Scenarios in Higher Education. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heydinger, Richard B.

    A model for generating global scenarios for higher education is presented, and five global scenarios for the future of higher education in the United States are proposed. Multiple scenarios help to set the context in which planning occurs. They are similar to planning assumptions that many institutional research offices prepare as background…

  12. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... from failures at flanges, joints, welds, valves and valve seals, and drains or bleeds; (iii) Process...

  13. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... from failures at flanges, joints, welds, valves and valve seals, and drains or bleeds; (iii) Process...

  14. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... from failures at flanges, joints, welds, valves and valve seals, and drains or bleeds; (iii) Process...

  15. New trends in transportation and land use scenario planning : five case studies of regional and local scenario planning efforts

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-04-01

    This report summarizes important findings from a literature review on scenario planning processes and a scan of stakeholders. It also presents case studies on innovative, next generation scenario planning efforts. The project team defined next ...

  16. Climate variability of heat wave and future warming scenario in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Chuan-yao

    2017-04-01

    In this study, the heat wave definition and climate variability of HW days according to air temperature are conducted in order to find out the local threshold and variation trends in the past 40 years (1971-2010), in three major cities, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC) and Kaohsiung (KH) in Taiwan. As for Taiwan's high humidity atmospheric condition, the heat stress index wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is also employed in the past (2003-2012) and future warming scenario in 2075-2099. The simulation WBGT in the past (2003-2012) and future warming projection (2075-2099) are deduced from the results of ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution in these three cities. Box plot analyzing shows the differences between observed and simulated WBGT distribution at 25%, 50% and 75% percentiles are all within 0.7 °C in 2003-2012. Even the extreme values, the differences are all within 0.9 °C. In other words, the ranges of the WBGT variation from observations are reasonably captured by the ECW in three cities. According to the good performance of ECW in the WBGT simulation, the projection of future WBGT in these three cities has been evaluated under IPCC A1B scenario by using ECW. It is estimated that nearly 50% of the days in summer (July and August) are all at the level of danger (WBGT>31 °C ) at the period 2075-2099.It is a significant increase because they are only 10.74%, 4.22% and 11.28% above this level in the past in 2003-2012 in TP, TC and KH, respectively. From public health point of view, the impacts are huge and worthy to pay attention under the global warming trend.

  17. Exploring the electron transfer pathways in photosystem I by high-time-resolution electron paramagnetic resonance: observation of the B-side radical pair P700(+)A1B(-) in whole cells of the deuterated green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii at cryogenic temperatures.

    PubMed

    Berthold, Thomas; von Gromoff, Erika Donner; Santabarbara, Stefano; Stehle, Patricia; Link, Gerhard; Poluektov, Oleg G; Heathcote, Peter; Beck, Christoph F; Thurnauer, Marion C; Kothe, Gerd

    2012-03-28

    Crystallographic models of photosystem I (PS I) highlight a symmetrical arrangement of the electron transfer cofactors which are organized in two parallel branches (A, B) relative to a pseudo-C2 symmetry axis that is perpendicular to the membrane plane. Here, we explore the electron transfer pathways of PS I in whole cells of the deuterated green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii using high-time-resolution electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) at cryogenic temperatures. Particular emphasis is given to quantum oscillations detectable in the tertiary radical pairs P700(+)A1A(-) and P700(+)A1B(-) of the electron transfer chain. Results are presented first for the deuterated site-directed mutant PsaA-M684H in which electron transfer beyond the primary electron acceptor A0A on the PsaA branch of electron transfer is impaired. Analysis of the quantum oscillations, observed in a two-dimensional Q-band (34 GHz) EPR experiment, provides the geometry of the B-side radical pair. The orientation of the g tensor of P700(+) in an external reference system is adapted from a time-resolved multifrequency EPR study of deuterated and 15N-substituted cyanobacteria (Link, G.; Berthold, T.; Bechtold, M.; Weidner, J.-U.; Ohmes, E.; Tang, J.; Poluektov, O.; Utschig, L.; Schlesselman, S. L.; Thurnauer, M. C.; Kothe, G. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2001, 123, 4211-4222). Thus, we obtain the three-dimensional structure of the B-side radical pair following photoexcitation of PS I in its native membrane. The new structure describes the position and orientation of the reduced B-side quinone A1B(-) on a nanosecond time scale after light-induced charge separation. Furthermore, we present results for deuterated wild-type cells of C. reinhardtii demonstrating that both radical pairs P700(+)A1A(-) and P700(+)A1B(-) participate in the electron transfer process according to a mole ratio of 0.71/0.29 in favor of P700(+)A1A(-). A detailed comparison reveals different orientations of A1A(-) and A1B(-) in their

  18. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  19. Male breast cancer: is the scenario changing

    PubMed Central

    Contractor, Kaiyumars B; Kaur, Kanchan; Rodrigues, Gabriel S; Kulkarni, Dhananjay M; Singhal, Hemant

    2008-01-01

    Background The overall incidence of male breast cancer is around 1% of all breast cancers and is on the rise. In this review we aim to present various aspects of male breast cancer with particular emphasis on incidence, risk factors, patho-physiology, treatment, prognostic factors, and outcome. Methods Information on all aspects of male breast cancer was gathered from available relevant literature on male breast cancer from the MEDLINE database over the past 32 years from 1975 to 2007. Various reported studies were scrutinized for emerging evidence. Incidence data were also obtained from the IARC, Cancer Mondial database. Conclusion There is a scenario of rising incidence, particularly in urban US, Canada and UK. Even though more data on risk factors is emerging about this disease, more multi-institutional efforts to pool data with large randomized trials to show treatment and survival benefits are needed to support the existing vast emerging knowledge about the disease. PMID:18558006

  20. Traumatic intrusions as 'worse case scenario's'.

    PubMed

    Merckelbach, H; Muris, P; Horselenberg, R; Rassin, E

    1998-11-01

    While some clinicians assume that traumatic intrusions are historically accurate revisualizations of traumatic incidents, others have suggested that these types of intrusions may represent a worse case scenario (i.e. exaggerated) version of the trauma. To explore this issue, a survey was conducted among undergraduate students (N = 189). Of the 69 respondents who had been the victim of or witness to a relatively recent trauma, 15 (22%) reported an exaggerated perception of the traumatic incident. Exaggerated intrusions were found to have more flashback qualities and tended to have a higher frequency than 'realistic' intrusions. These findings are well in line with the idea that intrusions are not necessarily veridical copies of traumatic events.

  1. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, shouldmore » be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic

  2. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents themore » supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.« less

  3. Practical application of suspension criteria scenarios: radiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Lamm, I-L; Horton, P; Lehmann, W; Lillicrap, S

    2013-02-01

    In 2007, the European Commission (EC) commissioned a group of experts to undertake the revision of Report RP91 'Criteria for Acceptability of Radiological (including Radiotherapy) and Nuclear Medicine Installations' written in 1997. The revised draft report was submitted to the EC in 2010, which issued it for public consultation. The EC commissioned the same group of experts to consider the comments of the public consultation for further improvement of the revised report. The EC intends to publish the final report under its Radiation Report Series as RP162. This paper presents a selection of practical applications of suspension criteria scenarios in radiotherapy, mostly in brachytherapy, with special emphasis on the critical roles and responsibilities of qualified radiotherapy staff (radiation oncologists, medical physicists and radiotherapy technicians).

  4. Fermi Bubbles: Formation Scenarios and Substructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finkbeiner, Douglas P.

    2013-04-01

    The Milky Way has gamma-ray lobes extending several kpc above and below the Galactic center, known as the "Fermi Bubbles." Although the Galactic center is quiet today, these bubbles are a hint of past AGN activity, a burst of star formation, or some other dramatic energy injection. In the three years since their discovery, they have been modeled analytically and numerically, and additional radio and x-ray data have been obtained, leading to a number of ideas about their origins. I will review the latest data and report on some possible formation scenarios. I will also give an update on our tentative claim last year of a linear jet-like structure within the bubbles (arXiv:1205.5852).

  5. A COLLISIONLESS SCENARIO FOR URANUS TILTING

    SciTech Connect

    Boue, Gwenael; Laskar, Jacques

    2010-03-20

    The origin of the high inclination of Uranus' spin-axis (Uranus' obliquity) is one of the great unanswered questions about the solar system. Giant planets are believed to form with nearly zero obliquity, and it has been shown that the present behavior of Uranus' spin is essentially stable. Several attempts were made in order to solve this problem. Here we report numerical simulations showing that Uranus' axis can be tilted during the planetary migration, without the need of a giant impact, provided that the planet had an additional satellite and a temporary large inclination. This might have happened during the giantmore » planet instability phase described in the Nice model. In our scenario, the satellite is ejected after the tilt by a close encounter at the end of the migration. This model can both explain Uranus' large obliquity and bring new constraints on the planet orbital evolution.« less

  6. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  7. Multipartite maximally entangled states in symmetric scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Guillén, Carlos E.

    2012-08-01

    We consider the class of (N+1)-partite states suitable for protocols where there is a powerful party, the authority, and the other N parties play the same role, namely, the state of their system lies in the symmetric Hilbert space. We show that, within this scenario, there is a “maximally entangled state” that can be transform by a local operations and classical communication protocol into any other state. In addition, we show how to use the protocol efficiently, including the construction of the state, and discuss security issues for possible applications to cryptographic protocols. As an immediate consequence we recover a sequential protocol that implements the 1-to-N symmetric cloning.

  8. The NorWeST Stream Temperature Database, Model, and Climate Scenarios for the Northwest U.S. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaak, D.; Wenger, S.; Peterson, E.; Ver Hoef, J.; Luce, C.; Hostetler, S. W.; Kershner, J.; Dunham, J.; Nagel, D.; Roper, B.

    2013-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is warming the Earth's rivers and streams and threatens significant changes to aquatic biodiversity. Effective threat response will require prioritization of limited conservation resources and coordinated interagency efforts guided by accurate information about climate, and climate change, at scales relevant to the distributions of species across landscapes. Here, we describe the NorWeST (i.e., NorthWest Stream Temperature) project to develop a comprehensive interagency stream temperature database and high-resolution climate scenarios across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming (~400,000 stream kilometers). The NorWeST database consists of stream temperature data contributed by >60 state, federal, tribal, and private resource agencies and may be the largest of its kind in the world (>45,000,000 hourly temperature recordings at >15,000 unique monitoring sites). These data are being used with spatial statistical network models to accurately downscale (R2 = 90%; RMSE < 1 C) global climate patterns to all perennially flowing reaches within river networks at 1-kilometer resolution. Historic stream temperature scenarios are developed using air temperature data from RegCM3 runs for the NCEP historical reanalysis and future scenarios (2040s and 2080s) are developed by applying bias corrected air temperature and discharge anomalies from ensemble climate and hydrology model runs for A1B and A2 warming trajectories. At present, stream temperature climate scenarios have been developed for 230,000 stream kilometers across Idaho and western Montana using data from more than 7,000 monitoring sites. The raw temperature data and stream climate scenarios are made available as ArcGIS geospatial products for download through the NorWeST website as individual river basins are completed (http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.shtml). By providing open access to temperature data and scenarios, the project is fostering new research on

  9. Rapid Impactor Sample Return (RISR) Mission Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, J.; Freitas, C.; Tapley, M.

    Due to the long lead time and great expense of traditional sample return mission plans to Mars, there is a need for a new and innovative way to return materials at a lower cost. The Rapid Impactor Sample Return (RISR) mission is one such proposal. The scenario involves a single pass of Mars at high speeds (7 km/s), with the sample return vehicle skimming just 1 or 2 meters above a high point (such as a top ridge on Olympus Mons) and releasing an impactor. The impactor strikes the ground, throwing up debris (in hypervelocity impacts, debris goes everywhere). The debris with roughly the same forward velocity will be captured by the sample return vehicle and returned to Earth. There is no delay or orbit in the vicinity of Mars: RISR is a one-pass mission. This paper will discuss some of the details of the proposal. Calculations will be presented to address the question of how much material can be recovered with this technique and the state of the recovered material. Issues dealing with Mars tenuous atmosphere will be presented (however, it will be noted that such issues do not occur for RISR style missions to Phobos, Deimos, or asteroids and Near Earth Objects). Recent test results in the missile defense community (IFTs 6, 7, 8 in 2001, 2002) have scored direct hits at better than 1 meter accuracy with closing velocities of 7.6 km/s, giving the belief that accuracy and sensing issues are developed to a point that the RISR mission scenario is feasible.

  10. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Lyman Alpha Galaxies and Galaxy Formation Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malhotra, Sangeeta; Rhoads, James; Dey, Arjun; Jannuzi, Buell

    2003-02-01

    The Large Area Lyman Alpha survey has successfully identified the population of young Lyα emitting galaxies predicted over 30 years ago. High equivalent widths of Lyα line in these sources suggest that they are a very young (age < 10^7 years), metal poor, population of stars at redshifts 4.5, 5.7 and 6.6, making them very interesting objects to study in the context of galaxy formation scenarios. We have begun to do exactly this using the correlation function of LALA galaxies, with fairly puzzling results. Before this leads to more complications in theoretical galaxy formation scenarios, we would like to put the observational results on a firm footing. In order to do that we ask for one night of Keck/Deimos time for spectroscopic confirmation of 50 secure LALA sources at z=4.5, and a similar number of fainter sources, in order to (1) characterize the completeness of this survey, and (2) weed out foreground emission line galaxies which affect the small scale correlation function. The excellent match between wide-field capabilities of DEIMOS and the LALA survey will allow the most complete confirmation and characterization of the high redshift Lyα population yet in terms of photometric sample reliability, while our planned spectra of foreground emission line galaxies will lead to a characterization of emission line selected star-forming galaxies at 0.25 < z < 1.5. We will use our spectroscopic sample to obtain a clean measurement of the small scale correlations among Lyα galaxies (which are clearly seen in our photometric sample). This will let us understand the halo mass, occupancy number, and duty cycle of these objects, and hence better how Lyα sources fit into the bigger picture of galaxy formation.

  12. Soft Selective Sweeps in Complex Demographic Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Benjamin A.; Petrov, Dmitri A.; Messer, Philipp W.

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation from de novo mutation can produce so-called soft selective sweeps, where adaptive alleles of independent mutational origin sweep through the population at the same time. Population genetic theory predicts that such soft sweeps should be likely if the product of the population size and the mutation rate toward the adaptive allele is sufficiently large, such that multiple adaptive mutations can establish before one has reached fixation; however, it remains unclear how demographic processes affect the probability of observing soft sweeps. Here we extend the theory of soft selective sweeps to realistic demographic scenarios that allow for changes in population size over time. We first show that population bottlenecks can lead to the removal of all but one adaptive lineage from an initially soft selective sweep. The parameter regime under which such “hardening” of soft selective sweeps is likely is determined by a simple heuristic condition. We further develop a generalized analytical framework, based on an extension of the coalescent process, for calculating the probability of soft sweeps under arbitrary demographic scenarios. Two important limits emerge within this analytical framework: In the limit where population-size fluctuations are fast compared to the duration of the sweep, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the harmonic mean of the variance effective population size estimated over the duration of the sweep; in the opposing slow fluctuation limit, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the instantaneous variance effective population size at the onset of the sweep. We show that as a consequence of this finding the probability of observing soft sweeps becomes a function of the strength of selection. Specifically, in species with sharply fluctuating population size, strong selection is more likely to produce soft sweeps than weak selection. Our results highlight the importance of accurate demographic estimates over short

  13. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  14. Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

    Treesearch

    Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

    2017-01-01

    Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

  15. Predicting Monsoonal-Driven Stream Discharge and Sediment Yield in Himalaya Mountain Basins with Changing Climate and Deforestation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neupane, R. P.; White, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Short and long term effects of site water availability impacts the spectrum of management outcomes including landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture in mountain systems heavily influenced by climate and land use changes. Climate change and land use may predominantly affect the hydrologic cycle of mountain basins as soil precipitation interception is affected by land cover. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, we estimated stream discharge and sediment yield associated with climate and land use changes for two Himalaya basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal that included drainages of the Tamor and Seti Rivers. Future climate change was modeled using average output of temperature and precipitation changes derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (B1, A1B & A2) of 16 global circulation models for 2080 as meteorological inputs into SWAT. Land use change was modeled spatially and included 1) deforestation, 2) expansion of agricultural land, and 3) increased human settlement that were produced by considering current land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use types. We found higher annual stream discharge in all GCM-derived scenarios compared to the baseline with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. With 7% of original forest land removed, sediment yield for Tamor basin was estimated to be 65% higher, but increased to 124% for the SRES-B1 scenario. For the Seti basin, 4% deforestation yielded 33% more sediment for the SRES-A1B scenario. Our results indicated that combined effects of future, intensified monsoon rainfall with deforestation lead to dramatic potential for increased stream discharge and sediment yield as rainfall on steep slopes with thin exposed soils increases surface runoff and soil erosion in the Himalayas. This effect appears to

  16. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final

  17. Mars sample return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented. Mission A is a low-cost, low-mass scenario, while Mission B is a high-technology, high-science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan 4 rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the orbital transfer vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. Near Mars, the landers separate - one bound for a polar site and the other for an equatorial site. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. The rovers return these samples to the landers for loading on the direct return rockets, which return the samples directly to the Earth's surface. Mission B starts with four Titan 4 launches, used to place the components of the planetary transfer vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low-thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Mars orbit. It deploys a communications satellite into a one half sol orbit and then releases the lander pad cage at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars ascent vehicle (MAV), two lighter-than-air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained within a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain. The Aereons attempt to circumnavigate Mars and collect samples from a wide variety of sites, while the land rover examines a local area more thoroughly. The Aereons are equipped with small sample return rockets that can return their samples to the lander in the event that an Aereon is incapable of returning

  18. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  19. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial polar regions is reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  20. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  1. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  2. Dynamical scenarios for chromosome bi-orientation.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-06-18

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. Copyright © 2013 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Recent scenario of obesity and male fertility.

    PubMed

    Shukla, K K; Chambial, S; Dwivedi, S; Misra, S; Sharma, P

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this review was to provide current scenario linking obesity and male fertility. Obesity has been linked to male fertility because of lifestyle changes, internal hormonal environment alterations, and sperm genetic factors. A few studies assessing the impact of obesity on sperm genetic factor have been published, but they did not lead to a strong consensus. Our objective was to explore further the relationship between sperm genetic factor and obesity. There are emerging facts that obesity negatively affects male reproductive potential not only by reducing sperm quality, but in particular it alters the physical and molecular structure of germ cells in the testes and ultimately affects the maturity and function of sperm cells. Inhibition of microRNA in the male pronucleus of fertilized zygotes produces offspring of phenotypes of variable severity depending on miRNAs ratios. Hence, these RNAs have a role in the oocyte development during fertilization and in embryo development, fetal survival, and offspring phenotype. It has been reported that the miRNA profile is altered in spermatozoa of obese males, however, the impact of these changes in fertilization and embryo health remains as yet not known. © 2014 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

  4. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-01-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  5. Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

    Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

  6. Future seasonal climate change scenarios for Taiwan using a climate scenario generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tfwala, Samkele; Chen, Su-Chin

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers, resource managers and engineers demand accurate information regarding future changes in climate and variability to better forecast potential impacts. To acquire information about climate change, dedicated experiments using global and regional climate models are needed. These demand considerable computing capacity and expertise. This study explores the use of simple climate change scenario generators in developing future changes of climate change at national level. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGGIC) combined with a scenario generator (SCENGEN) is applied. MAGGIC/SCENGEN use results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 - CMIP3 and IPCC fourth assessment report, working group 1 - AR4). Eighteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated based on global and regional performance. From these, 5 models were selected to predict future changes for Taiwan. The models predict temperature increase in all seasons with a high magnitude (3.16 °C) in June-July-August (JJA) season. Precipitation changes vary widely; generally, there is a decline in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON). A significant decline, -8.8 % and -16 %, is observed in MAM by 2020 and 2100, respectively. The study reveals that simple climate change scenarios can be used to predict future changes.

  7. Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xue; Ye, Si-Yuan; Wei, Ai-Hua; Zhou, Peng-Peng; Wang, Li-Heng

    2017-09-01

    A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011-2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961-2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

  8. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

  9. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  10. Automation of IED Threat Emplacement for Training Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-03-01

    scenarios may have applications in analysis and the production of analysis products to support operational decision making. Given the expanded role...software This section defines software intended to support Canadian Forces (CF) users in the production of insurgent Improvised Explosive Device...IED threat scenarios and allow trainers to control scenario outcomes to provide a structured training environment. With this basis, the goals of this

  11. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increasemore » the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.« less

  12. Radiation Protection for Lunar Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clowdsley, Martha S.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.; Anderson, Brooke M.; Anderson, Mark S.; Krizan, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Preliminary analyses of shielding requirements to protect astronauts from the harmful effects of radiation on both short-term and long-term lunar missions have been performed. Shielding needs for both solar particle events (SPEs) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure are discussed for transit vehicles and surface habitats. This work was performed under the aegis of two NASA initiatives. The first study was an architecture trade study led by Langley Research Center (LaRC) in which a broad range of vehicle types and mission scenarios were compared. The radiation analysis for this study primarily focused on the additional shielding mass required to protect astronauts from the rare occurrence of a large SPE. The second study, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), involved the design of lunar habitats. Researchers at LaRC were asked to evaluate the changes to mission architecture that would be needed if the surface stay were lengthened from a shorter mission duration of 30 to 90 days to a longer stay of 500 days. Here, the primary radiation concern was GCR exposure. The methods used for these studies as well as the resulting shielding recommendations are discussed. Recommendations are also made for more detailed analyses to minimize shielding mass, once preliminary vehicle and habitat designs have been completed. Here, methodologies are mapped out and available radiation analysis tools are described. Since, as yet, no dosimetric limits have been adopted for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO), radiation exposures are compared to LEO limits. Uncertainties associated with the LEO career effective dose limits and the effects of lowering these limits on shielding mass are also discussed.

  13. Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

    2018-04-01

    Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

  14. Traffic scenario generation technique for piloted simulation studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, David H.; Wells, Douglas C.

    1985-01-01

    Piloted simulation studies of cockpit traffic display concepts require the development of representative traffic scenarios. With the exception of specific aircraft interaction issues, most research questions can be addressed using traffic scenarios consisting of prerecorded aircraft movements merged together to form a desired traffic pattern. Prerecorded traffic scenarios have distinct research advantages, allowing control of traffic encounters with repeatability of scenarios between different test subjects. A technique is described for generation of prerecorded jet transport traffic scenarios suitable for use in piloted simulation studies. Individual flight profiles for the aircraft in the scenario are created interactively with a computer program designed specifically for this purpose. The profiles are then time-correlated and merged into a complete scenario. This technique was used to create traffic scenarios for the Denver, Colorado area with operations centered at Stapleton International Airport. Traffic scenarios for other areas may also be created using this technique, with appropriate modifications made to the navigation fix locations contained in the flight profile generation program.

  15. Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchicalmore » clustering approach.« less

  16. E-maintenance Scenarios Based on Augmented Reality Software Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benbelkacem, S.; Zenati-Henda, N.; Belhocine, M.

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents architecture of augmented reality for e-maintenance application. In our case, the aim is not to develop a vision system based on augmented reality concept, but to show the relationship between the different actors in the proposed architecture and to facilitate maintenance of the machine. This architecture allows implementing different scenarios which give to the technician possibilities to intervene on a breakdown device with a distant expert help. Each scenario is established according to machine parameters and technician competences. In our case, a hardware platform is designed to carry out e-maintenance scenarios. An example of e-maintenance scenario is then presented.

  17. Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demski, Christina; Spence, Alexa; Pidgeon, Nick

    2017-03-01

    Understanding which energy future configurations provide publicly acceptable levels of energy security, affordability, and environmental protection is critical for institutional decision-making. However, little is known about how scenarios influence energy preferences. Here we present nationally representative UK data on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool that encourages engagement with the holistic complexities of system change. Engagement with the tool strengthened existing preferences for renewable energy and intentions to take personal action. Importantly, patterns of energy preferences were influenced by exemplar scenarios, which served as reference points that anchored choices. Carbon capture and storage, nuclear power, biofuels, and changes to heating and travel were particularly impacted by scenarios indicating uncertainty and ambivalence regarding these options. Scenarios (and scenario-building tools) are valuable for engaging citizens about future energy systems. However, care is required in their design and interpretation to reach robust conclusions about underlying preferences and acceptance.

  18. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

  19. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks along topographic transects under climate change scenarios using CarboSOIL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Jordán, Antonio; Anaya-Romero, María; de la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    CarboSOIL is a land evaluation model for soil organic carbon (SOC) accounting under global change scenarios (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013a; 2013b) and is a new component of the MicroLEIS Decision Support System. MicroLEIS is a tool for decision-makers dealing with specific agro-ecological problems as, for example, soil contamination risks (Abd-Elmabod et al., 2010; Abd-Elmabod et al., 2012)which has been designed as a knowledge-based approach incorporating a set of interlinked data bases. Global change and land use changes in recent decades have caused relevant impacts in vegetation carbon stocks (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2011) and soil organic carbon stocks, especially in sensible areas as the Mediterranean region (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b). This study aims to investigate the influence of topography, climate, land use and soil factors on SOC stocks by the application of CarboSOIL in a representative area of the Mediterranean region (Seville, Spain). Two topographic transects (S-N and W-E oriented) were considered, including 63 points separated 4 km each. These points are associated to 41 soil profiles extracted from the SDBm soil data base (De la Rosa et al., 2001) and climatic information (average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature and average rainfall per month) extracted from raster data bases (Andalusian Environmental Information Network, REDIAM). CarboSOIL has been applied along topographic transects at different soil depths and under different climate change scenarios. Climate scenarios have been calculated according to the global climate model (CNRMCM3) by extracting spatial climate data under IPCC A1B scenario for the current period (average data from 1960-2000), 2040, 2070 and 2100. In the current scenario, results show that the highest SOC stock values located on Typic Haploxeralfs under olive groves for soil sections 0-25 cm and for 25-50 cm, but the highest values were determined on fruit-cropped Rendolic Xerothent in the 50-75cm

  20. Future possible crop yield scenarios under multiple SSP and RCP scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakurai, G.; Yokozawa, M.; Nishimori, M.; Okada, M.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the effect of future climate change on global crop yields is one of the most important tasks for global food security. Future crop yields would be influenced by climatic factors such as the changes of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. On the other hand, the effect of the changes of agricultural technologies such as crop varieties, pesticide and fertilizer input on crop yields have large uncertainty. However, not much is available on the contribution ratio of each factor under the future climate change scenario. We estimated the future global yields of four major crops (maize, soybean, rice and wheat) under three Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For this purpose, firstly, we estimated a parameter of a process based model (PRYSBI2) using a Bayesian method for each 1.125 degree spatial grid. The model parameter is relevant to the agricultural technology (we call "technological parameter" here after). Then, we analyzed the relationship between the values of technological parameter and GDP values. We found that the estimated values of the technological parameter were positively correlated with the GDP. Using the estimated relationship, we predicted future crop yield during 2020 and 2100 under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios and RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The estimated crop yields were different among SSP scenarios. However, we found that the yield difference attributable to SSPs were smaller than those attributable to CO2 fertilization effects and climate change. Particularly, the estimated effect of the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on global yields was more than four times larger than that of GDP for C3 crops.

  1. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Syed Md Akram

    2013-01-01

    programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR’B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement. PMID:24455659

  2. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Hussain, Syed Md Akram

    2013-10-01

    programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR'B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement.

  3. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F; Stephen, Jamie

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) roundmore » bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.« less

  4. Earthquake Loss Scenarios in the Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, M.; Gupta, S.; Rosset, P.; Chamlagain, D.

    2017-12-01

    are subject to errors due to the many unknowns. Nevertheless, the order of magnitude of the disasters we estimate is correct as has been shown by the fact that 2 out of 7 Himalayan disaster scenarios published in March 2005 came true within factors of about 2.5 (the consequences of the 2005 Kashmir and the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes.)

  5. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy D.

    2008-10-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  6. The Future of Florida: Four Scenarios for the Sunshine State.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bezold, Clement and Olson, Robert

    1983-01-01

    Looking at four different scenarios for Florida's future--continued growth, new federalism, depression/hurricane, and third wave--can help clarify goals for the future. Each scenario's effect on such key areas as energy use, transportation, water, and education is considered. (IS)

  7. Pre-crash scenario typology for crash avoidance research

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2007-04-01

    This report defines a new pre-crash scenario typology for crash avoidance research based on the 2004 General Estimates System (GES) crash database, which consists of pre-crash scenarios depicting vehicle movements and dynamics as well as the critical...

  8. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  9. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries r...

  10. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  11. Student Experience of a Scenario-Centred Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-01-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and…

  12. Application Scenarios for Nonstandard Log-Linear Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mair, Patrick; von Eye, Alexander

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the authors have 2 aims. First, hierarchical, nonhierarchical, and nonstandard log-linear models are defined. Second, application scenarios are presented for nonhierarchical and nonstandard models, with illustrations of where these scenarios can occur. Parameters can be interpreted in regard to their formal meaning and in regard…

  13. ImmunoScenarios: A Game for the Immune System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Mark F.; Jackson, Sally W.

    1996-01-01

    Describes a board game, ImmunoScenarios, which was developed to reinforce the ideas about the immune system discussed in lecture classes. Emphasizes important characteristics of the body's specific defense system including specificity, cooperation among various cells, and memory. Includes directions for playing, student handouts, and scenarios.…

  14. A climate-change scenario for the Columbia River Basin.

    Treesearch

    Sue A. Ferguson

    1997-01-01

    This work describes the method used to generate a climate-change scenario for the Columbia River basin. The scenario considers climate patterns that may change if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (C02), or its greenhouse gas equivalent, were to double over pre-Industrial Revolution values. Given the current rate of increase in...

  15. Perspectives on using multimedia scenarios in a PBL medical curriculum.

    PubMed

    Persson, Anne-Christine; Fyrenius, Anna; Bergdahl, Björn

    2010-01-01

    In 1999, the Faculty of Health Sciences at Linköping University, Sweden, started up a process of replacing text-based problem-based learning (PBL) scenarios with web-based multimedia-enhanced scenarios. This article brings together three studies of the results of this process and the experience gained from 10 years of implementation work. Adding multimedia to PBL scenarios makes them more realistic and thereby more motivating and stimulating for the student to process. The group process is not disrupted by the introduction of the computer in the group room. It is important to challenge the students by varying the scenarios' perspective and design in order to get away from cue-seeking behaviors that might jeopardize a deep approach to learning. Scrutinizing all scenarios in a PBL curriculum can be used as a tool for improvement and renewal of the entire curriculum.

  16. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  17. Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. Results A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010–2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are

  18. Temperature- and CO 2 -Dependent Life Table Parameters of Spodoptera litura (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) on Sunflower and Prediction of Pest Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Manimanjari, D.; Srinivasa Rao, M.; Swathi, P.; Rama Rao, C. A.; Vanaja, M.; Maheswari, M

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Predicted increase in temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration will influence the growth of crop plants and phytophagous insects. The present study, conducted at the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad, India, aimed at 1) construction of life tables at six constant temperatures viz ., 20, 25, 27, 30, 33, and 35 ± 0.5°C for Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) reared on sunflower ( Helianthus annus L.) grown under ambient and elevated CO 2 ( e CO 2 ) (550 ppm) concentration in open top chambers and 2) prediction of the pest status in near future (NF) and distant future (DF) climate change scenarios at major sunflower growing locations of India. Significantly lower leaf nitrogen, higher carbon and higher relative proportion of carbon to nitrogen (C:N) were observed in sunflower foliage grown under e CO 2 over ambient. Feeding trials conducted on sunflower foliage obtained from two CO 2 conditions showed that the developmental time of S. litura (Egg to adult) declined with increase in temperature and was more evident at e CO 2 . Finite (λ) and intrinsic rates of increase ( rm ), net reproductive rate ( Ro ), mean generation time, (T) and doubling time (DT) of S. litura increased significantly with temperature up to 27–30°C and declined with further increase in temperature. Reduction of ‘ T ’ was observed from maximum value of 58 d at 20°C to minimum of 24.9 d at 35°C. The DT of population was higher (5.88 d) at 20°C and lower (3.05 d) at 30°C temperature of e CO 2 . The data on these life table parameters were plotted against temperature and two nonlinear models were developed separately for each of the CO 2 conditions for predicting the pest scenarios. The NF and DF scenarios temperature data of four sunflower growing locations in India is based on PRECIS A1B emission scenario. It was predicted that increased ‘ rm ’, ‘λ’, and ‘ Ro ’ and reduced ‘ T ’ would occur during

  19. Temperature- and CO2-dependent life table parameters of Spodoptera litura (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) on sunflower and prediction of pest scenarios.

    PubMed

    Manimanjari, D; Srinivasa Rao, M; Swathi, P; Rama Rao, C A; Vanaja, M; Maheswari, M

    2014-01-01

    Predicted increase in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration will influence the growth of crop plants and phytophagous insects. The present study, conducted at the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad, India, aimed at (1) construction of life tables at six constant temperatures viz., 20, 25, 27, 30, 33, and 35 ± 0.5 °C for Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) reared on sunflower (Helianthus annus L.) grown under ambient and elevated CO2 (eCO2) (550 ppm) concentration in open top chambers and (2) prediction of the pest status in near future (NF) and distant future (DF) climate change scenarios at major sunflower growing locations of India. Significantly lower leaf nitrogen, higher carbon and higher relative proportion of carbon to nitrogen (C:N) were observed in sunflower foliage grown under eCO2 over ambient. Feeding trials conducted on sunflower foliage obtained from two CO2 conditions showed that the developmental time of S. litura (Egg to adult) declined with increase in temperature and was more evident at eCO2. Finite (λ) and intrinsic rates of increase (r(m)), net reproductive rate (Ro), mean generation time, (T) and doubling time (DT) of S. litura increased significantly with temperature up to 27-30 °C and declined with further increase in temperature. Reduction of 'T' was observed from maximum value of 58 d at 20 °C to minimum of 24.9 d at 35 °C. The DT of population was higher (5.88 d) at 20 °C and lower (3.05 d) at 30 °C temperature of eCO2. The data on these life table parameters were plotted against temperature and two nonlinear models were developed separately for each of the CO2 conditions for predicting the pest scenarios. The NF and DF scenarios temperature data of four sunflower growing locations in India is based on PRECIS A1B emission scenario. It was predicted that increased 'rm', 'λ', and 'Ro' and reduced 'T' would occur during NF and DF scenario over present period at all

  20. Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Kindermann, Georg E; Schörghuber, Stefan; Linkosalo, Tapio; Sanchez, Anabel; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

    2013-02-01

    Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010-2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared

  1. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    PubMed

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  2. Transcriptomic Characterization of Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum, Cuvier, 1818) Exposed to Three Climate Change Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Prado-Lima, Marcos; Val, Adalberto Luis

    2016-01-01

    Climate change substantially affects biodiversity around the world, especially in the Amazon region, which is home to a significant portion of the world's biodiversity. Freshwater fishes are susceptible to increases in water temperature and variations in the concentrations of dissolved gases, especially oxygen and carbon dioxide. It is important to understand the mechanisms underlying the physiological and biochemical abilities of fishes to survive such environmental changes. In the present study, we applied RNA-Seq and de novo transcriptome sequencing to evaluate transcriptome alterations in tambaqui when exposed to five or fifteen days of the B1, A1B and A2 climate scenarios foreseen by the IPCC. The generated ESTs were assembled into 54,206 contigs. Gene ontology analysis and the STRING tool were then used to identify candidate protein domains, genes and gene families potentially responsible for the adaptation of tambaqui to climate changes. After sequencing eight RNA-Seq libraries, 32,512 genes were identified and mapped using the Danio rerio genome as a reference. In total, 236 and 209 genes were differentially expressed at five and fifteen days, respectively, including chaperones, energetic metabolism-related genes, translation initiation factors and ribosomal genes. Gene ontology enrichment analysis revealed that mitochondrion, protein binding, protein metabolic process, metabolic processes, gene expression, structural constituent of ribosome and translation were the most represented terms. In addition, 1,202 simple sequence repeats were detected, 88 of which qualified for primer design. These results show that cellular response to climate change in tambaqui is complex, involving many genes, and it may be controlled by different cues and transcription/translation regulation mechanisms. The data generated from this study provide a valuable resource for further studies on the molecular mechanisms involved in the adaptation of tambaqui and other closely related

  3. Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, C. Y.; Chien, Y. Y.; Su, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    This study examined the climate variability of heat wave (HW) according to air temperature and relative humidity to determine trends of variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC) and Kaohsiung (KH), during in the past four decades (1971-2010). According to data available, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress for the three studied cities was also calculated for the past (2003-2012) and simulated under the projected warming scenario for the end of this century (2075-2099) using ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution Analysis showed that past decade (2001-2010) saw increase not only in number of HW days in all three cities but also the duration of each HW event in TP and KH. Simulation results revealed that ECW captures well the characteristics of data distribution in these three cities during 2003-2012. Under the A1B projection, ECW yielded higher WBGT in all three cities for 2075-2099. The WBGT in TP indicated that the heat stress for 50% of the days in July and August by 2075-2099 will be at danger level (WBGT ³ 31 °C). Even the median WBGT in TC and KH (30.91°C and 30.88°C, respectively), are close to 31°C. Hence, the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level by the end of this century. Such projection under the global warming trend would necessitate adaptation and mitigation, and the huge impact of dangerous heat stress on public health merits urgent attention for Taiwan.

  4. Transcriptomic Characterization of Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum, Cuvier, 1818) Exposed to Three Climate Change Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Prado-Lima, Marcos; Val, Adalberto Luis

    2016-01-01

    Climate change substantially affects biodiversity around the world, especially in the Amazon region, which is home to a significant portion of the world’s biodiversity. Freshwater fishes are susceptible to increases in water temperature and variations in the concentrations of dissolved gases, especially oxygen and carbon dioxide. It is important to understand the mechanisms underlying the physiological and biochemical abilities of fishes to survive such environmental changes. In the present study, we applied RNA-Seq and de novo transcriptome sequencing to evaluate transcriptome alterations in tambaqui when exposed to five or fifteen days of the B1, A1B and A2 climate scenarios foreseen by the IPCC. The generated ESTs were assembled into 54,206 contigs. Gene ontology analysis and the STRING tool were then used to identify candidate protein domains, genes and gene families potentially responsible for the adaptation of tambaqui to climate changes. After sequencing eight RNA-Seq libraries, 32,512 genes were identified and mapped using the Danio rerio genome as a reference. In total, 236 and 209 genes were differentially expressed at five and fifteen days, respectively, including chaperones, energetic metabolism-related genes, translation initiation factors and ribosomal genes. Gene ontology enrichment analysis revealed that mitochondrion, protein binding, protein metabolic process, metabolic processes, gene expression, structural constituent of ribosome and translation were the most represented terms. In addition, 1,202 simple sequence repeats were detected, 88 of which qualified for primer design. These results show that cellular response to climate change in tambaqui is complex, involving many genes, and it may be controlled by different cues and transcription/translation regulation mechanisms. The data generated from this study provide a valuable resource for further studies on the molecular mechanisms involved in the adaptation of tambaqui and other closely

  5. Solid waste management scenarios for Cetinje in Montenegro.

    PubMed

    Yetis, Ulku; Jakobsen, Jens Bjørn; Dilek, Filiz B; Kıyık, Enver; Mugoša, Sanja; Novović, Jadranka; Kerestecioglu, Merih

    2015-05-01

    This study presents the options for source-segregation and selective collection of recyclable waste fractions for Cetinje, Montenegro, with the aim of meeting the European Union 50% waste recycling target in 2023, and extending collection and disposal system that builds on the existing strengths of the city. To this end, three options were considered: (1) source separation and separate collection of dry recyclable materials and central sorting of residual waste; (2) source separation and collection of co-mingled dry recyclable materials, and central sorting in a clean material recovery facility of comingled recyclables and central sorting of residual waste; (3) collection of mixed waste (current situation) and subsequent central sorting. Scenarios 1 and 2 were found to meet the European Union 50% recycling target in 2023, provided that a fast implementation of the new separate collection schemes to fine sort the co-mingled collected recyclable materials is available. Finally, a financial evaluation was made for the options and the investment and operational costs over a 20-year period were estimated. Unit costs for Scenario 3 were found to be lower than for Scenario 1 and 2. As Scenario 3 will not meet the future European Union recycling targets, Scenario 2 has been pointed as the most feasible scenario for Cetinje, with reference to the expected lower total costs compared with Scenario 1. © The Author(s) 2015.

  6. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to includemore » alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.« less

  7. Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

    2017-04-01

    The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

  8. Effect of the ATP-binding cassette drug transporters ABCB1, ABCG2, and ABCC2 on erlotinib hydrochloride (Tarceva) disposition in in vitro and in vivo pharmacokinetic studies employing Bcrp1-/-/Mdr1a/1b-/- (triple-knockout) and wild-type mice.

    PubMed

    Marchetti, Serena; de Vries, Nienke A; Buckle, Tessa; Bolijn, Maria J; van Eijndhoven, Maria A J; Beijnen, Jos H; Mazzanti, Roberto; van Tellingen, Olaf; Schellens, Jan H M

    2008-08-01

    We tested whether erlotinib hydrochloride (Tarceva, OSI-774), an orally active epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is a substrate for the ATP-binding cassette drug transporters P-glycoprotein (P-gp; MDR1, ABCB1), breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP; ABCG2), and multidrug resistance protein 2 (MRP2; ABCC2) in vitro and whether P-gp and BCRP affect the oral pharmacokinetics of erlotinib hydrochloride in vivo. In vitro cell survival, drug transport, accumulation, and efflux of erlotinib were done using Madin-Darby canine kidney II [MDCKII; wild-type (WT), MDR1, Bcrp1, and MRP2] and LLCPK (WT and MDR1) cells and monolayers as well as the IGROV1 and the derived human BCRP-overexpressing T8 cell lines. In vivo, the pharmacokinetics of erlotinib after p.o. and i.p. administration was studied in Bcrp1/Mdr1a/1b(-/-) (triple-knockout) and WT mice. In vitro, erlotinib was actively transported by P-gp and BCRP/Bcrp1. No active transport of erlotinib by MRP2 was observed. In vivo, systemic exposure (P = 0.01) as well as bioavailability of erlotinib after oral administration (5 mg/kg) were statistically significantly increased in Bcrp1/Mdr1a/1b(-/-) knockout mice (60.4%) compared with WT mice (40.0%; P = 0.02). Erlotinib is transported efficiently by P-gp and BCRP/Bcrp1 in vitro. In vivo, absence of P-gp and Bcrp1 significantly affected the oral bioavailability of erlotinib. Possible clinical consequences for drug-drug and drug-herb interactions in patients in the gut between P-gp/BCRP-inhibiting substrates and oral erlotinib need to be addressed.

  9. Towards the new CH2018 climate scenarios for Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Schär, Christoph; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Knutti, Reto; Liniger, Mark; Strassmann, Kuno

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing demand for regional assessments of future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems to inform and facilitate appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are consistent and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). Since then, new climate model simulations have become available and the scientific understanding has improved. It is hence desirable to update these national scenarios. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS), a network consisting of several federal offices and academic partners. The CH2018 scenarios will build primarily upon the latest Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations assuming different pathways of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared to CH2011, more emphasis will be put on changes in extremes and in putting the projected changes in the context of observed variability. Results of a recently conducted survey on end-user needs in Switzerland will guide the development process toward the CH2018 scenarios. It ensures that the scenarios are presented and communicated in a user-oriented format and find a wide applicability across different sectors in Switzerland. In the presentation we will show the full methodological setup to generate the CH2018 scenarios and how consistency across the methods and products is maximized. First results on mean changes and selected indices will be presented. In terms of dissemination, the results of the user survey show the necessity to address all different user types of climate scenarios, especially the non-experts. Compared to CH2011, this implies a stronger focus on consulting, condensing complex information and providing tutorials. In the presentation, we will outline our plans on dissemination in order to adequately

  10. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  11. Scenarios: a planning tool for health care organizations.

    PubMed

    Zentner, R D; Gelb, B D

    1991-01-01

    An organization's strategic planners require an understanding of future developments in the environment in which their decisions will be made. However, there is increasing recognition that there is no single predetermined "future." Therefore, the use of alternative future scenarios can be helpful. Scenario construction is a technique for combining possible environmental developments in a systematic way to help managers assess the potential consequences of alternative decisions. This article discusses the scenario technique and shows, as an example, its application to one organization in the health care field.

  12. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.28 Alternative release... alternative release scenarios: (1) The five-year accident history provided in § 68.42; and (2) Failure...

  13. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.28 Alternative release... alternative release scenarios: (1) The five-year accident history provided in § 68.42; and (2) Failure...

  14. Ranking nuclear and radiological terrorism scenarios: the Italian case.

    PubMed

    Tofani, Alessandro; Bartolozzi, Massimiliano

    2008-10-01

    A quantitative criterion for ranking the different scenarios of nuclear and radiological terrorism has been developed. The aim of the model is not to predict terroristic events but only to indicate which scenario has the higher utility from the point of view of a terroristic organization in terms of balance between factors favoring and discouraging the attack, respectively. All these factors were quantified according to a scoring system that takes into account the logarithmic relationship between perceptions and stimuli. The criterion was applied to several scenarios, each of which was modeled in a simple but not trivial way in order to estimate the expected damage in terms of probable life losses from both radiative and nonradiative effects. The outcome from the ranking method indicates that the attractive scenario appears to be the detonation of a low yield improvised nuclear device in the metropolitan area of a major city.

  15. [Health promotion in the religious scenario: opportunities for nursing care].

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Adriana Gomes Nogueira; Gubert, Fabiane do Amaral; Martins, Alissan Karine Lima; Galvão, Marli Teresinha Gimeniz; Vieira, Neiva Francenely Cunha; Pinheiro, Patricia Neyva da Costa

    2011-12-01

    This was a qualitative study of the documentary type carried out in the first half of 2008, and it aimed to describe the practices of health promotion developed in the religious scenario in a city in the countryside of Ceará, Brazil. Information were collected through audio-taped interviews with the priest in charge of the parish and the three coordinators of projects linked to the Catholic Church, selected by the identification of projects with the priest. The results show that promotion and health education are present in the activities developed by volunteers in the religious scenario. The church seeks to change attitudes and to promote the adoption of healthy behavior by individuals, through individual and collective actions. There is an urgent need to insert healthcare professionals in this scenario, strengthening it as a social support, gradually reducing the assistential activities and intensifying those aimed at health promotion with the support of nursing, in order to improve healthcare in this scenario.

  16. Economic Analysis of Different Electric Vehicle Charging Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ying, Li; Haiming, Zhou; Xiufan, Ma; Hao, Wang

    2017-05-01

    Influence of electric vehicles (EV) to grid cannot be ignored. Research on the economy analysis of different charging scenarios is helpful to guide the user to charge or discharge orderly. EV charging models are built such as disordered charging, valley charging, intelligent charging, and V2G (Vehicle to Grid), by which changes of charging load in different scenarios can be seen to analyze the influence to initial load curve, and comparison can be done about user’s average cost. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the electric vehicle charging behavior, cost in different charging scenarios are compared, social cost is introduced in V2G scene, and the relationship between user’s average cost and social cost is analyzed. By test, it is proved that user’s cost is the lowest in V2G scenario, and the larger the scale of vehicles is, the more the social cost can save.

  17. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  18. Structural Crashworthiness Standards Comparison: Grade Crossing Collision Scenarios

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-10-20

    In support of the Federal Railroad Administrations (FRA) : Railroad Equipment Safety Program, American and European : grade-crossing collision scenarios were evaluated and : compared. Finite element analyses (FEA) were employed to : subject an FRA...

  19. Task analysis of intersection driving scenarios : information processing bottlenecks

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2006-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to identify the information processing bottlenecks that drivers face in specific intersection driving scenarios. These bottlenecks represent situations in which drivers may become 'overloaded' by driving demands, which c...

  20. 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

  1. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Science Inventory

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  2. Technical Feasibility Assessment of Lunar Base Mission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magelssen, Trygve ``Spike''; Sadeh, Eligar

    2005-02-01

    Investigation of the literature pertaining to lunar base (LB) missions and the technologies required for LB development has revealed an information gap that hinders technical feasibility assessment. This information gap is the absence of technical readiness levels (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) and information pertaining to the criticality of the critical enabling technologies (CETs) that enable mission success. TRL is a means of identifying technical readiness stages of a technology. Criticality is defined as the level of influence the CET has on the mission scenario. The hypothesis of this research study is that technical feasibility is a function of technical readiness and technical readiness is a function of criticality. A newly developed research analysis method is used to identify the technical feasibility of LB mission scenarios. A Delphi is used to ascertain technical readiness levels and CET criticality-to-mission. The research analysis method is applied to the Delphi results to determine the technical feasibility of the LB mission scenarios that include: observatory, science research, lunar settlement, space exploration gateway, space resource utilization, and space tourism. The CETs identified encompasses four major system level technologies of: transportation, life support, structures, and power systems. Results of the technical feasibility assessment show the observatory and science research LB mission scenarios to be more technical ready out of all the scenarios, but all mission scenarios are in very close proximity to each other in regard to criticality and TRL and no one mission scenario stands out as being absolutely more technically ready than any of the other scenarios. What is significant and of value are the Delphi results concerning CET criticality-to-mission and the TRL values evidenced in the Tables that can be used by anyone assessing the technical feasibility of LB missions.

  3. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The two promising scenarios to explode core collapse supernovae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soker, Noam

    2017-10-01

    I compare to each other what I consider to be the two most promising scenarios to explode core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe). Both are based on the negative jet feedback mechanism (JFM). In the jittering jets scenario a collapsing core of a single slowly-rotating star can launch jets. The accretion disk or belt (a sub-Keplerian accretion flow concentrated toward the equatorial plane) that launches the jets is intermittent with varying directions of the axis. Instabilities, such as the standing accretion shock instability (SASI), lead to stochastic angular momentum variations that allow the formation of the intermittent accretion disks/belts. According to this scenario no failed CCSNe exist. According to the fixed axis scenario, the core of the progenitor star must be spun up during its late evolutionary phases, and hence all CCSNe are descendants of strongly interacting binary systems, most likely through a common envelope evolution (whether the companion survives or not). Due to the strong binary interaction, the axis of the accretion disk that is formed around the newly born neutron star has a more or less fixed direction. According to the fixed axis scenario, accretion disks/belts are not formed around the newly born neutron star of single stars; they rather end in failed CCSNe. I also raise the possibility that the jittering jets scenario operates for progenitors with initial mass of 8 {M}⊙ ≲ {M}{ZAMS}≲ 18 {M}⊙ , while the fixed axis scenario operates for {M}{ZAMS}≳ 18 {M}⊙ . For the first time these two scenarios are compared to each other, as well as to some aspects of the neutrino-driven explosion mechanism. These new comparisons further suggest that the JFM plays a major role in exploding massive stars.

  5. Open Scenario Study, Phase I. Volume 3. Questionnaire Response

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    importantly, do not address the learning objectives of non-DOD players. Until these issues are addressed, the question of class or unclass is largely...34stories" illuminating an issue , such as a potential crisis, war, or future history. They may be favorable or unfavorable stories. They are often...experimentation, a scenario is used as a vehicle to explore an issue . 2. What timeframe do most of the scenarios your organization work with fall into

  6. Alternative World Scenarios for a New Order of Nations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-01-01

    and Air and Space Defense Forces ( ASDF ). SCENARIO BRAVO: U.S. World Peacekeeper. Scenario BRAVO describes a competitive world of economic trade markets...equipment and weapons. The warfighting GDF, Land Defense Forces (LDF), Sea Defense Forces (SDF), and Air and Space Defense Forces ( ASDF ), overall, are...since they are outmoded and of mid 20th century vintage. The remainder are high-tech and staffed by well-trained career SDF personnel. The ASDF (Air

  7. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-12-01

    scenario, Soldiers performed a threat assessment by identifying the highest priority threat and explaining the importance of this threat. They then...decision makers can quickly recognize the situation, develop a hypothesis, and predict an outcome. Research tends to show that expert decision...IED) most often as a priority threat in the Dog Day scenario, but diverged with respect to the perceived importance of other threats; for example

  8. Mount St. Helens Future Expected Deposition Scenario (FEDS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-14

    Mount Saint Helens Future Expected Deposition Scenario (FEDS) 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 COMPLETION OF AGENCY TECHNICAL REVIEW The Agency Technical Review (A TR) has been completed for the Mount Saint Helens ... Mount St. Helens Future Expected Deposition Scenario (FEDS) Channels within the Cowlitz-Toutle Watershed April 14

  9. MAUT approach for selecting a proper decommissioning scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, S.K.; Park, K.W.; Lee, H.S.

    2007-07-01

    When dismantling scenarios are selected, not only the quantitatively calculated results but also the qualitatively estimated results should be considered with a logical and systematic process. In this case, the MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) is widely used for the quantification of subjective judgments in various fields of a decision making. This study focuses on the introduction and application of the MAUT method for the selection of decommissioning scenarios. To evaluate decommissioning scenarios, nine evaluation attributes are considered. These attributes are: the primary cost, the peripheral cost, the waste treatment cost, the worker's exposure, the worker's safety, the work difficulty, themore » originality of the dismantling technologies, their contributions to other industries, public relations for, and an understanding of the public. The weighting values of the attributes were determined by using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and their utility functions are produced from several questionnaires for the decision makers. As an implementation, this method was applied to evaluate two scenarios, the plasma arc cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario for decommissioning the thermal column in KRR- 1 (Korea Research Reactor-1). As a result, this method has many merits even although it is difficult to produce the utility function of each attribute. However, once they are setup it is easy to measure the alternatives' values and it can be applied regardless of the number of alternatives. (authors)« less

  10. Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

    PubMed

    Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

    2010-03-01

    Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

  11. What roles for viruses in origin of life scenarios?

    PubMed

    Kostyrka, Gladys

    2016-10-01

    Important roles in origin of life (OL) scenarios have been and still are attributed to viruses. Yet the strict dependence of viruses on cells for their multiplication has been widely acknowledged since the first decades of the 20th century. How could viruses play critical roles in the OL if life relies on cellular organization and if viruses are defined as parasites of cells? In other words, how could viruses play a role in the emergence of cellular life if the existence of cells is a prerequisite for the existence of viruses? This paper investigates this issue and describes past and current OL scenarios conferring viruses with important roles, thereby completing the work of historian of science and physician Scott Podolsky who identified three major roles of viruses in past OL scenarios. Some objections raised by present OL scenarios conferring viruses with an important role are discussed. I argue that disagreements concerning the roles of viruses in OL scenarios stem from the different concepts of life and of virus scientists defend. Investigating the roles of viruses in OL scenarios not only helps identifying different ways to define life in the context of OL theorizing. It also offers the opportunity to better understand how viruses could be conceptualized. The relevance of the replication-first versus metabolism-first dichotomy in OL theorizing is briefly discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbook (EFH) on how to select data from the EFH to assess childhood exposures. The scenarios presented in this report promote the use of the standard set of age groups recommended by the U.S. EPA in the report entitled Guidance on Selecting Age Groups for Monitoring and Assessing Childhood Exposures to Environmental Contaminants (U.S. EPA 2005). The purpose of the Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples Report is to outline scenarios for various child-specific exposure pathways and to demonstrate how data from the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2011) may be applied for estimating exposures. The handbook provides data on drinking water consumption, soil ingestion, mouthing behavior, inhalation rates, dermal factors including skin area and soil adherence factors, consumption of fruits and vegetables, fish, meats, dairy products, homegrown foods, human milk, activity patterns, body weight, and consumer products. The example scenarios presented here have been selected to best demonstrate the use of the various key data sets in the Child-Specific Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2008a), and represent commonly encountered exposure pathways. An exhausti

  13. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

  14. Scenario Development Process at the Vertical Motion Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reardon, Scott E.; Beard, Steven D.; Lewis, Emily

    2017-01-01

    There has been a significant effort within the simulation community to standardize many aspects of flight simulation. More recently, an effort has begun to develop a formal scenario definition language for aviation. A working group within the AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has been created to develop a standard aviation scenario definition language, though much of the initial effort has been tailored to training simulators. Research and development (R&D) simulators, like the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), and training simulators have different missions and thus have different scenario requirements. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the unique tasks and scenario elements used at the VMS so they may be captured by scenario standardization efforts. The VMS most often performs handling qualities studies and transfer of training studies. Three representative handling qualities simulation studies and two transfer of training simulation studies are described in this paper. Unique scenario elements discussed in this paper included special out-the-window (OTW) targets and environmental conditions, motion system parameters, active inceptor parameters, and configurable vehicle math model parameters.

  15. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  16. A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires.The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be

  17. User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

  18. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  19. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased

  20. Impacts potentiels d'un changement climatique sur le pergelisol dans le nord canadien

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obretin, Calin

    This thesis explores the potential impacts of a climate change due to the greenhouse gases on the state and the evolution of the permafrost in the Canadian North. The permafrost represents the half of the Canadian national territory and a change of its current state will echo in all spheres of activity, on the biosphere and on the environment generally. In spite of the evident importance of the subject, there is no precise idea as to how the permafrost will react to the climate change and to what extent the frozen layer will be disrupted. This thesis investigates this problem by using a methodological approach inspired by the Canadian model on the evolution of permafrost (TTOP) coupled with a theoretical approach based on the theory of the complex neuronal systems. The general objective of this thesis is to improve the Canadian model of evolution of permafrost (TTOP-Temperature one the Top Of Permafrost) created by Smith and Riseborough in 1996, its structure of computation, spatial resolution and to determine the state of the permafrost in the study area between 2010 and 2100. The study zone is situated in the Mackenzie Basin (N-W.T) on a north-south transect of 1440 by 720 km. The first objective of the research is to derive maps of the annual values of temperature on the top of the permafrost from 2010 to 2100 by using an improved dynamic model of the evolution of permafrost (TTOP-A). Thereafter, these values are compared with those obtained by Smith and Riseborough (1996). The values of the evolution of air temperature for this period are supplied by the climatic scenarios CGCM32 SRES A1B, CGCM3 SRES A2 and CGCM3 SRES B1. Secondly, this thesis has as an objective the production of the maps of the thickness of permafrost for 2100 with a spatial resolution of 25 km. More exactly, we determine the evolution of the values of thickness of permafrost for the three climatic scenarios mentioned above. Furthermore, the study proposes: i) a new method for downscaling of

  1. A New Method for Downscaling Orographic Precipitation in IPCC Scenarios- An Example with a Linear Model in Western Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caroletti, Giulio Nils; Barstad, Idar

    2009-11-01

    Orographic precipitation plays an important role as mountain regions occupy about one-fifth of the Earth's surface, are home to one-tenth of the global population and directly affect about half of the remaining populations ([1], [2]). Orographic precipitation is a source of fresh water but also the cause of mudslides, avalanches and flash floods. General Circulation Models are the main tool for future climate predictions. Unfortunately their resolution is very coarse (250-300 km), so that they cannot resolve properly processes with a strong local variability, like orographic precipitation. The present work shows an application of a Linear Model ([3]) for downscaling precipitation from General Circulation Models to a high-resolution grid based on the US Navy DEM orography. The Linear Model takes into account airflow dynamics, condensed water advection and downslope evaporation, using simulated output as input data for physically downscaling orographic precipitation. The Linear Model is computationally very efficient, making it possible to downscale a high number of model runs at little CPU expense The method has been used to downscale 12 model runs from the IPCC 2007 Report's A1B scenario over western Norway ([4]). The control period is 1971-2000, while future scenarios are 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. The models are then grouped into an ensamble to provide a more reliable assessment. This takes into account suggestions from the scientific community about the necessity of including as many models as possible when developing climate-change projections at the local scale ([5]). The resulting ensembel results show an increase of orographic precipitation occurrences and in the values of the precipitation extremes between 10% and 20% of the control period values. A detailed analysis shows a strong link between rise in temperature and moist air influx.

  2. Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two

  3. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  4. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  5. Olive production systems on sloping land: prospects and scenarios.

    PubMed

    de Graaff, Jan; Duran Zuazo, Victor-Hugo; Jones, Nádia; Fleskens, Luuk

    2008-11-01

    The ultimate objective of the EU Olivero project was to improve the quality of life of the rural population and to assure the sustainable use of the natural resources of land and water in the sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) areas in Southern Europe. One specific objective was to develop, with end-users, alternative future scenarios for olive orchards in the five Olivero target areas. This paper discusses the development of these scenarios, and their socio-economic and environmental effects. After presenting the different production systems (SMOPS) and their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, a general overview is given of the medium- and long-term prospects. These have been validated by experts from the olive sector and foresee changes towards abandonment, intensification and organic production. On balance, the changes could lead to lower production of some target areas in future. An analysis of major external factors affecting the future development of SMOPS indicates there will be labour shortages and increased wage rates, reduced subsidies and constant or rising olive oil prices. On the basis of these assumptions, four future scenarios are developed for the five target areas, with the help of a Linear Programming simulation model. The results are presented for two target areas. For the Trás-os-Montes target area in Portugal, three of the four tested scenarios point to a high level of abandonment, while in the most positive scenario the areas under semi-intensive low input and organic SMOPS increase. In the Granada and Jaen target area in Spain, all scenarios hint at intensification, and only the orchards on the steepest slopes are likely to be abandoned. The direction and extent of environmental effects (erosion, fire risk, pollution, water use and biodiversity) differ per scenario, as do the extent of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures.

  6. Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario in the North Sea and possible effects on dinoflagellate harmful algal blooms.

    PubMed

    Friocourt, Y F; Skogen, M; Stolte, W; Albretsen, J

    2012-01-01

    Two hydrodynamic and ecological models were used to investigate the effects of climate change-according to the IPCC A1b emission scenario - on the primary productivity of the North Sea and on harmful algal blooms. Both models were forced with atmospheric fields from a regional downscaling of General Circulation Models to compare two sets of 20-year simulations representative of present climate (1984-2004) conditions and of the 2040s. Both models indicated a general warming of the North Sea by up to 0.8°C and a slight freshening by the 2040s. The models suggested that the eastern North Sea would be subjected to more temperature and salinity changes than the western part. In addition, the ecological modules of the models indicated that the warming up of the sea would result in a slightly earlier spring bloom. The one model that also computes the distribution of four different phytoplankton groups suggests an increase in the abundance of dinoflagellates, whereas the abundance of diatoms, flagellates and Phaeocystis sp. remains comparable to current levels, or decrease. Assuming that Dinophysis spp. would experience a similar increase in abundance as the modelled group of dinoflagellates, it is hypothesised that blooms of Dinophysis spp. may occur more frequently in the North Sea by 2040. However, implications for shellfish toxicity remain unclear.

  7. Decadal Recruitment and Mortality of Ponderosa pine Predicted for the 21st Century Under five Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ironside, K. E.; Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Shaw, J. D.; Cobb, N. S.

    2008-12-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) is the dominant conifer in higher elevation regions of the southwestern United States. Because this species is so prominent, southwestern montane ecosystems will be significantly altered if this species is strongly affected by future climate changes. These changes could be highly challenging for land management agencies. In order to model the consequences of future climates, 20th Century recruitment events and mortality for ponderosa pine were characterized using measures of seasonal water balance (precipitation - potential evapotranspiration). These relationships, assuming they will remain unchanged, were then used to predict 21st Century changes in ponderosa pine occurrence in the southwest. Twenty-one AR4 IPCC General Circulation Model (GCM) A1B simulation results were ranked on their ability to simulate the later 20th Century (1950-2000 AD) precipitation seasonality, spatial patterns, and quantity in the western United States. Among the top ranked GCMs, five were selected for downscaling to a 4 km grid that represented a range in predictions in terms of changes in water balance. Predicted decadal changes in southwestern ponderosa pine for the 21st Century for these five climate change scenarios were calculated using a multiple quadratic logistic regression model. Similar models of other western tree species (Pinus edulis, Yucca brevifolia) predicted severe contractions, especially in the southern half of their ranges. However, the results for Ponderosa pine suggested future expansions throughout its range to both higher and lower elevations, as well as very significant expansions northward.

  8. Adaptive scenarios: a training model for today's public health workforce.

    PubMed

    Uden-Holman, Tanya; Bedet, Jennifer; Walkner, Laurie; Abd-Hamid, Nor Hashidah

    2014-01-01

    With the current economic climate, money for training is scarce. In addition, time is a major barrier to participation in trainings. To meet the public health workforce's rising demand for training, while struggling with less time and fewer resources, the Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center has developed a model of online training that provides the public health workforce with individually customized, needs-based training experiences. Adaptive scenarios are rooted in case-based reasoning, a learning approach that focuses on the specific knowledge needed to solve a problem. Proponents of case-based reasoning argue that learners benefit from being able to remember previous similar situations and reusing information and knowledge from that situation. Adaptive scenarios based on true-to-life job performance provide an opportunity to assess skills by presenting the user with choices to make in a problem-solving context. A team approach was used to develop the adaptive scenarios. Storylines were developed that incorporated situations aligning with the knowledge, skills, and attitudes outlined in the Public Health Preparedness and Response Core Competency Model. This article examines 2 adaptive scenarios: "Ready or Not? A Family Preparedness Scenario" and "Responding to a Crisis: Managing Emotions and Stress Scenario." The scenarios are available on Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center's Learning Management System, the Training Source (http://training-source.org). Evaluation data indicate that users' experiences have been positive. Integrating the assessment and training elements of the scenarios so that the training experience is uniquely adaptive to each user is one of the most efficient ways to provide training. The opportunity to provide individualized, needs-based training without having to administer separate assessments has the potential to save time and resources. These adaptive scenarios continue to be

  9. Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

    PubMed

    Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

    2015-01-01

    In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to

  10. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    PubMed

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  11. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    PubMed Central

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  12. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  13. Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page

    2011-09-08

    Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income amongmore » world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.« less

  14. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

    This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

  15. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Star, Jonathan; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Bryan, Alexander; Babson, Amanda; Cole-Will, Rebecca; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2016-01-01

    This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

  16. Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

    SciTech Connect

    Woodruff, David L.; Deride, Julio; Staid, Andrea

    2017-12-22

    Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions.more » Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.« less

  17. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades.

    PubMed

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  18. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Van Vuuren, D. P.; Meinshausen, M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Joos, F.; Strassmann, K. M.; Smith, S. J.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.; Riahi, K.; de la Chesnaye, F.; den Elzen, M. G. J.; Fujino, J.; Jiang, K.; Nakicenovic, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5–4.4°C over 1990 levels or 0.3–3.4°C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of ≈1.4°C (with a full range of 0.5–2.8°C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming. PMID:18838680

  19. Modelling Wave-Driven Coastal Sediment Transport in a Climate Change Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaldo, Davide; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bergamasco, Andrea; Carniel, Sandro; Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Sclavo, Mauro

    2013-04-01

    Coastal morphodynamics is the result of a number of processes in which most of the driving factors strongly depend on climatic conditions. Thus, climate change is one of the most impacting constraints in governing long-term coastal landscape evolution: in particular, such influence acts through sea level rise and the effects of changes in atmospheric dynamics. While the former causes a general retreat of the shoreline and the flooding of the underlying coastal zones, with a direct effect on the coastal zone, changes in atmospheric dynamics modify landscape processes via storm surge and wave climate variations. In particular, modifications in wave storminess affect coastal sediment transport, with possibly relevant implications especially in environments with strong morphodynamic activity. In the present work we investigate the impact of a possible climate change scenario on wave-driven coastal sediment transport in a deltaic system in the Northern Adriatic Sea with reference to the period 2070-2099. To this aim, the results of a spectral wave model (SWAN) forced with climatological wind fields have been used. These were obtained by means of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (COSMO-CLM) with reference to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The resulting wave climate has been used as a constraint for a hydro- morphodynamic model, which was applied to a test site on the Po Delta (Northern Italy): relevant transport processes have been studied both at decadal and at storm time scales and compared with the corresponding results of a control analysis (1965-1995) representing the actual climate. A predicted reduction of the cyclonic activity in the Northern Adriatic Sea produces a decrease in significant wave height (Benetazzo et al., 2012), thus generating non-negligible impacts on sediment resuspension and transport processes along the western Adriatic coast. In particular, compared to cross-shore transport, long-shore sediment drift appears to be most affected by

  20. Projection of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution loads for a forest dominant dam watershed by reflecting future vegetation canopy in a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model.

    PubMed

    Park, Min J; Park, Jong Y; Shin, Hyung J; Lee, Mi S; Park, Geun A; Jung, In K; Kim, Seong J

    2010-01-01

    This study is to assess the future impact of climate change on hydrological behavior considering future vegetation canopy prediction and its propagation to nonpoint source pollution (NPS) loads. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used for the assessment. For a forest dominant ChungjuDam watershed of South Korea, the MIROC3.2hires climate data of SRES A1B and B1 scenarios were adopted and downscaled for the watershed. The future vegetation canopy information was projected by the monthly relationship between Terra MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LAI (Leaf Area Index) and temperature. The future predicted LAI increased up to 1.9 in 2080s April and October because of the temperature increase 3.6 degrees C and 5.3 degrees C respectively. By reflecting the future LAI changes, the future estimated percent changes of maximum annual dam inflow, SS, T-N, and T-P were + 42.5% in 2080s A1B,-35.6% in 2020s A1B,+73.7% in 2080s A1B and-21.0% in 2080s B1 scenario respectively. The increase of T-N load was from the increase of subsurface lateral flows and the groundwater recharges by the future rainfall increase. The decrease of T-P load was by decrease of sediment load during wet days because the effect of LAI increase is greater than the increase of rainfall.

  1. The neurocognitive effects of simulated use-of-force scenarios.

    PubMed

    Dawes, Donald M; Ho, Jeffrey D; Vincent, Andrea S; Nystrom, Paul C; Moore, Johanna C; Steinberg, Lila W; Tilton, Anne Marie K; Brave, Michael A; Berris, Marc S; Miner, James R

    2014-03-01

    While the physiologic effects of modern conducted electrical weapons (CEW) have been the subject of numerous studies, their effects on neurocognitive functioning, both short-term and long-term, are less well understood. It is also unclear how these effects compare to other use-of-force options or other arrest-related stressors. We compared the neurocognitive effects of an exposure to a TASER(®) (TASER International, Inc, Scottsdale, AZ) X26™ CEW to four other use-of-force scenarios during a training exercise using a well-established neurocognitive metric administered repeatedly over 1 h. Overall, we found that there was a decline in neurocognitive performance immediately post-scenario in all groups, but this effect was transient, of questionable clinical significance, and returned to baseline by 1 h post-scenario.

  2. Temperature - Emissivity Separation Assessment in a Sub-Urban Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moscadelli, M.; Diani, M.; Corsini, G.

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, a methodology that aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different TES strategies is presented. The methodology takes into account the specific material of interest in the monitored scenario, sensor characteristics, and errors in the atmospheric compensation step. The methodology is proposed in order to predict and analyse algorithms performances during the planning of a remote sensing mission, aimed to discover specific materials of interest in the monitored scenario. As case study, the proposed methodology is applied to a real airborne data set of a suburban scenario. In order to perform the TES problem, three state-of-the-art algorithms, and a recently proposed one, are investigated: Temperature-Emissivity Separation '98 (TES-98) algorithm, Stepwise Refining TES (SRTES) algorithm, Linear piecewise TES (LTES) algorithm, and Optimized Smoothing TES (OSTES) algorithm. At the end, the accuracy obtained with real data, and the ones predicted by means of the proposed methodology are compared and discussed.

  3. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    SciTech Connect

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced tomore » 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.« less

  4. Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    English, J. M.; Liu, C. Y.; Smith, J. L.; Yin, A. K. K.; Pan, G. A.; Ayati, M. B.; Gyamfi, M.; Arabzadah, M. R.

    1978-01-01

    A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

  5. Surface Buildup Scenarios and Outpost Architectures for Lunar Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazanek, Daniel D.; Troutman, Patrick A.; Culbert, Christopher J.; Leonard, Matthew J.; Spexarth, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    The Constellation Program Architecture Team and the Lunar Surface Systems Project Office have developed an initial set of lunar surface buildup scenarios and associated polar outpost architectures, along with preliminary supporting element and system designs in support of NASA's Exploration Strategy. The surface scenarios are structured in such a way that outpost assembly can be suspended at any time to accommodate delivery contingencies or changes in mission emphasis. The modular nature of the architectures mitigates the impact of the loss of any one element and enhances the ability of international and commercial partners to contribute elements and systems. Additionally, the core lunar surface system technologies and outpost operations concepts are applicable to future Mars exploration. These buildup scenarios provide a point of departure for future trades and assessments of alternative architectures and surface elements.

  6. A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2017-02-16

    A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

  7. Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

  8. Simulation of Lunar Surface Communications Network Exploration Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linsky, Thomas W.; Bhasin, Kul B.; White, Alex; Palangala, Srihari

    2006-01-01

    Simulations and modeling of surface-based communications networks provides a rapid and cost effective means of requirement analysis, protocol assessments, and tradeoff studies. Robust testing in especially important for exploration systems, where the cost of deployment is high and systems cannot be easily replaced or repaired. However, simulation of the envisioned exploration networks cannot be achieved using commercial off the shelf network simulation software. Models for the nonstandard, non-COTS protocols used aboard space systems are not readily available. This paper will address the simulation of realistic scenarios representative of the activities which will take place on the surface of the Moon, including selection of candidate network architectures, and the development of an integrated simulation tool using OPNET modeler capable of faithfully modeling those communications scenarios in the variable delay, dynamic surface environments. Scenarios for exploration missions, OPNET development, limitations, and simulations results will be provided and discussed.

  9. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2013-01-01

    The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. PMID:24452253

  10. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it

    2012-01-15

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of howmore » the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the

  11. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Logistics of a Lunar Based Solar Power Satellite Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melissopoulos, Stefanos

    1995-01-01

    A logistics system comprised of two orbital stations for the support of a 500 GW space power satellite scenario in a geostationary orbit was investigated in this study. A subsystem mass model, a mass flow model and a life cycle cost model were developed. The results regarding logistics cost and burden rates show that the transportation cost contributed the most (96%) to the overall cost of the scenario. The orbital stations at a geostationary and at a lunar orbit contributed 4 % to that cost.

  13. Portability scenarios for intelligent robotic control agent software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straub, Jeremy

    2014-06-01

    Portability scenarios are critical in ensuring that a piece of AI control software will run effectively across the collection of craft that it is required to control. This paper presents scenarios for control software that is designed to control multiple craft with heterogeneous movement and functional characteristics. For each prospective target-craft type, its capabilities, mission function, location, communications capabilities and power profile are presented and performance characteristics are reviewed. This work will inform future work related to decision making related to software capabilities, hardware control capabilities and processing requirements.

  14. Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

    2016-12-01

    This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

  15. A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duveiller, G.; Donatelli, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Zucchini, A.; Nelson, R.; Baruth, B.

    2017-02-01

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure

  16. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  17. Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities

    Treesearch

    Julie A. Vano; John B. Kim; David E. Rupp; Philip W. Mote

    2015-01-01

    Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the...

  18. Considerations in linking energy scenario modeling and Life Cycle Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) has been exploring approaches for estimating U.S. anthropogenic air pollutant emissions through the mid-21st century. As a result, we have developed the Emission Scenario Projection methodology, or ESP. In this document, we pr...

  19. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  20. The role of perpetrator motivation in two crime scenarios.

    PubMed

    Sizemore, O J

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 × 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the scenario, and assigned a prison sentence to the perpetrator. A two-way ANOVA showed a significant interaction of motivation and crime (p = .026), with the victim rated least responsible in the anger-motivated rape scenario. Likewise, the assignment of blame produced a significant interaction of motivation and crime (p = .034); the victim was blamed the least in the anger-motivated rape scenario. Although the perpetrator was viewed as more responsible for the crime of rape than robbery (p = .022) and received a significantly longer sentence for rape (p < .001), perpetrator motivation did not affect perceptions of the perpetrator's responsibility for either crime. These results stand in contrast to those of Mitchell, Angelone, Kohlberger, and Hirschman (2009) and suggest their findings may have been the result of homophobic statements by the perpetrator rather than anger per se.

  1. Improvisation of Real-Life Scenarios through Intercultural Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okten, Celile Eren; Griffin, Banu Ozer

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes tasks based on real-life scenarios, which triggered reflective thinking, verbalization, and writing, leading to the creation of natural dialogues rather than artificial, dull monologues. One of the main aims of this approach is to engage students in a dynamic process of both learning about multicultural participants and…

  2. The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Reports of Resilience

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Coons, Laura M.; O'barr, Gregory; Khatami, Shiva

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of scenario planning on participant ratings of resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The research design is a quasi experimental pretest/posttest with treatment and control groups. Random selection or assignment was not achieved. Findings: Results show a significant difference in…

  3. Subsurface Scenarios: What are We Trying to Model?

    EPA Science Inventory

    In collaboration with the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (George Moridis and team),and after a thorough review of the scientific literature and data and interviews with a selection of experts on the topic, a finite number of plausible scenarios were selected for more quantitative...

  4. Importance of Web-Based Library Services: An Indian Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pathak, S. K.; Sahu, H.; Pathak, S. S.

    2010-10-01

    The implications of Web 2.0 for libraries are substantial and very close to the history and mission of libraries. The purpose of this article is to highlight the potential of web services for libraries. A brief description of these is followed by a discussion of the future of web services and the present scenario in India.

  5. Didactic Scenarios and ICT: A Good Practice Guide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dagdilelis, Vassilios; Papadopoulos, Ioannis

    In this paper a 'good practice guide' is presented for creating Didactic Scenarios (D.S.) with the support of ICT. This guide is based on: a) empirical data collected during longitudinal training programs addressed to secondary education teachers, b) observation of the way ICT is used in both levels of education and c) modern didactical theories.

  6. New Scenarios for Audience Response Systems in University Lectures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schön, Daniel; Kopf, Stephan; Klinger, Melanie; Guthier, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Mobile devices like smartphones and tablet PCs are widely used among university students and can be used for audience response systems (clicker systems) to improve teaching. Modern implementations of these systems are no longer limited to plain multiple-choice questions, but enable the lecturers to perform a variety of teaching scenarios. We…

  7. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  8. Increasing Interest in Cognitive Psychology Using Scenario-Based Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cormack, Sophie

    2014-01-01

    Students often perceive cognitive psychology as an abstract and difficult subject with little intrinsic interest. When student feedback identified problems with the traditional essay assessment in a cognitive psychology module, action research led to the development of a forensic scenario-based assessment which successfully increased student…

  9. Collaborative Concept Mapping Activities in a Classroom Scenario

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elorriaga, J. A.; Arruarte, A.; Calvo, I.; Larrañaga, M.; Rueda, U.; Herrán, E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to test collaborative concept mapping activities using computers in a classroom scenario and to evaluate the possibilities that Elkar-CM offers for collaboratively learning non-technical topics. Elkar-CM is a multi-lingual and multi-media software program designed for drawing concept maps (CMs) collaboratively. Concept…

  10. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES IN A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion...

  11. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES IN A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion...

  12. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES IN A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion...

  13. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES IN A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion...

  14. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES IN A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion...

  15. The Role of Perpetrator Motivation in Two Crime Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sizemore, O. J.

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the…

  16. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  17. The population program shifts to 'high-scenario' targets.

    PubMed

    Aragon-choudury, P

    1986-01-01

    The Philippine Population Program would like to achieve a replacement level of 1 daughter per childbearing woman by the year 2000 to reduce the population growth rate to 2% by 1992. Laing projected that high performance by the National Population Program would mean continued increase of sterilization prevalence at an average 1978-1983 rate. Strategies have been adopted to strengthen information-education-communication efforts, to attain higher contraceptive prevalence rates and use-effectiveness, to develop manpower, to achieve self-reliance, and to effect better program coordination, monitoring, research use. Effective service delivery will be a key to achieving the high-scenario targets. Effective use of natural family planning (NFP), will help in achieving the high-scenario goals. Apart from the heavy demand on NFP follow-up, need for prompt delivery of supplies, and lack of doctors and nurses, other factors may impede the high-scenario targets. Saniel believes that program workers should be allowed to insert IUDs and to dispense pills. Under the cost-recovery and cost-sharing schemes of the high-scenario targets, only sterilization will be done for free. It might affect the campaign for increased acceptors, but the start for self-reliance must happen now.

  18. A Blended Learning Scenario to Enhance Learners' Oral Production Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Hee-Kyung

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the effectiveness of a mobile assisted blended learning scenario for pronunciation in Korean language. In particular, we analyze how asynchronous oral communication between learners of Korean and native speakers via "kakaotalk" (an open source mobile phone application) may be beneficial to the learner in terms of…

  19. A Scenario Approach to Assessment of New Communications Media.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spangler, Kathleen; And Others

    In a study supported by the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, a research team developed a methodology for illustrating the effective and ineffective uses of audio, video, and computer teleconferencing by developing scenarios for eacb medium. The group first invented a general situation--a conference involving participants with global, regional, and…

  20. Examining the Societal Impacts of Nanotechnology through Simulation: NANO SCENARIO

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jarmon, Leslie; Keating, Elizabeth; Toprac, Paul

    2008-01-01

    This article describes a university-sponsored experiential-based simulation, the NANO SCENARIO, to increase the public's awareness and affect attitudes on the societal implications of nanoscience and nanotechnology by bringing together diverse stakeholders' perspectives in a participatory learning environment. Nanotechnology has the potential for…

  1. Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Aloysius, Noel; Arnold, Jeffrey; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Read, Jennifer; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale M.; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; White, Michael; Yen, Haw

    2016-01-01

    Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets. 

  2. Scenario-Based Training at the F.B.I.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitcomb, Chris

    1999-01-01

    The 16-week training program offered by the FBI Academy for all new agents is a scenario-based curriculum that includes a range of subjects from the rules of evidence to defensive tactics and provides agents with a clear understanding of how to conduct a full investigation from start to finish. (JOW)

  3. Expedition 41 six person crew emergency training scenarios

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2014-01-21

    PHOTO DATE: 21 January 2014 LOCATION: Bldg. 9NW, Space Vehicle Mockup Training Facility - ISS Mockups SUBJECT: Expedition 41 six person crew emergency training scenarios. Crewmembers: 39S/Suraev, Wiseman and Gerst along with 40S/Wilmore, Samokutyaev, and Serova. PHOTOGRAPHER: Mark Sowa

  4. Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.

    2000-01-01

    Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

  5. Drivers and Outcomes of Scenario Planning: A Canonical Correlation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The paper's aim is to report a research study on the mediator and outcome variable sets in scenario planning. Design/methodology/approach: This is a cannonical correlation analysis (CCA) Findings Two sets of variables; one as a predictor set that explained a significant amount of variability in the second, or outcome set of variables were…

  6. Quintessential inflation: A unified scenario of inflation and dark energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hossain, Wali

    2018-01-01

    Quintessential inflation unifies inflation and late time acceleration by a single scalar field. Such a scenario, with canonical and non-canonical scalar fields, has been discussed. The scalar field behaves as an inflaton field during inflation and as a quintessence field during late time. Also the predictions of the models has been compared with the recent Planck data.

  7. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    PubMed

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-10-24

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model.

  8. Conducting and Supporting a Goal-Based Scenario Learning Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery, Joel; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Discussion of goal-based scenario (GBS) learning environments focuses on a training module designed to prepare consultants with new skills in managing clients, designing user-friendly graphical computer interfaces, and working in a client/server computing environment. Transforming the environment from teaching focused to learning focused is…

  9. FTM-West Model Results for Selected Fuel Treatment Scenarios

    Treesearch

    Andrew D. Kramp; Peter J. Ince

    2006-01-01

    This paper evaluated potential forest product market impacts in the U.S. West of increases in the supply of wood from thinnings to reduce fire hazard. Evaluations are done using the Fuel Treatment Market-West model for a set of hypothetical fuel treatment scenarios, which include stand-density-index (SDI) and thin-from-below (TFB) treatment regimes at alternative...

  10. Natural Hazards Risk Reduction and the ARkStorm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, F. M.

    2016-12-01

    The ARkStorm Scenario project began in 2008, led by the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (now Science Application for Risk Reduction) in an effort to innovate the application of science to reduce natural-hazard risk associated with large atmospheric-river (AR) storms on the West Coast of the US. The effort involved contributions from many federal, state and academic organizations including NOAA's Environmental Systems Laboratory. The ARkStorm project used new understanding of atmospheric river physics, combined with downscaled meteorological data from two recent ARs (in 1969 and 1986), to describe and model a prolonged sequence of back-to-back storms similar to those that bankrupted California in 1862. With this scientifically plausible (but not worst-case) scenario, the ARkStorm team engaged flood and levee experts to identify plausible flooding extents and durations, created a coastal-storm inundation model (CoSMoS), and California's first landslide susceptibility map, to better understand secondary meteorological and geophysical hazards (flood, wind, landslide, coastal erosion and inundation) across California. Physical damages to homes, infrastructure, agriculture, and the environment were then estimated to calculate the likely social and economic impact to California and the nation. Across California, property damage from the ARkStorm scenario was estimated to exceed 300 billion, mostly from flooding. Including damage and losses, lifeline damages and business interruptions, the total cost of an ARkStorm-sized series of storms came to nearly 725 billion, nearly three times the losses estimated from another SAFRR scenario describing a M7.8 earthquake in southern California. Thus, atmospheric rivers have the potential to be California's other "Big One." Since its creation, the ARkStorm scenario has been used in preparedness exercises by NASA, the US Navy, the State of California, the County of Ventura, and cities and counties in the Tahoe Basin and

  11. Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

    2017-12-01

    There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

  12. Sequestered de Sitter string scenarios: soft-terms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aparicio, Luis; Cicoli, Michele; Krippendorf, Sven; Maharana, Anshuman; Muia, Francesco; Quevedo, Fernando

    2014-11-01

    We analyse soft supersymmetry breaking in type IIB de Sitter string vacua after moduli stabilisation, focussing on models in which the Standard Model is sequestered from the supersymmetry breaking sources and the spectrum of soft-terms is hierarchically smaller than the gravitino mass m 3/2. Due to this feature, these models are compatible with gauge coupling unification and TeV scale supersymmetry with no cosmological moduli problem. We determine the influence on soft-terms of concrete realisations of de Sitter vacua constructed from supersymmetric effective actions. One of these scenarios provides the first study of soft-terms for consistent string models embedded in a compact Calabi-Yau manifold with all moduli stabilised. Depending on the moduli dependence of the Kähler metric for matter fields and on the mechanism responsible to obtain a de Sitter vacuum, we find two scenarios for phenomenology: (i) a split-supersymmetry scenario where gaugino masses are suppressed with respect to scalar masses: M 1/2 ˜ m 3/2 ɛ ≪ m 0 ˜ m 3/2 ≪ m 3/2 for ɛ ˜ m 3/2 /M P ≪ 1; (ii) a typical MSSM scenario where all soft-terms are of the same order: M 1/2 ˜ m 0 ˜ m 3/2 ɛ ≪ m 3/2. Background fluxes determine the numerical coefficients of the soft-terms allowing for small variations of parameters as is necessary to confront data and to interpolate between different scenarios. We comment on different stringy origins of the μ-term and potential sources of desequestering.

  13. Modeling the vulnerability of hydroelectricity generation under drought scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, E.; Tidwell, V. C.; Bizjack, M.; Espinoza, V.; Jared, A.

    2015-12-01

    Hydroelectricity generation highly relies on in-stream and reservoir water availability. The western US has recently experienced increasingly sever, frequent, and prolonged droughts resulting in significant water availability issues. A large number of hydropower plants in Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) are located in California River Basin and Pacific Northwest River Basin. In supporting the WECC's long-term transmission planning, a drought impact analysis was performed with a series of data and modeling tools. This presentation will demonstrate a case study for California River Basin, which has recently experienced one of the worst droughts in its history. The purpose of this study is to evaluate potential risk for hydroelectricity generation due to projected drought scenarios in the medium-term (through the year of 2030). On the basis of historical droughts and the projected drought year for 2020-2030, three drought scenarios were identified. The hydrologic model was constructed and calibrated to simulate evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, irrigation as well as reservoir storage and discharge based on various dam operation rules and targets under three drought scenarios. The model also incorporates the projected future water demand in 2030 (e.g. municipal, agricultural, electricity generation). The projected monthly reservoir discharges were used to predict the monthly hydropower generation for hydropower plants with a capacity greater than 50 MW in California River Basin for each drought scenario. The results from this study identify spatial distribution of vulnerable hydropower plants and watersheds as well as the level of potential reduction of electricity generation under various drought scenarios and provide valuable insights into future mitigation strategies and long-term planning.

  14. Historical and potential changes of precipitation and temperature of Alberta subjected to climate change impact: 1900-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Rengui; Gan, Thian Yew; Xie, Jiancang; Wang, Ni; Kuo, Chun-Chao

    2017-02-01

    We investigated changes to precipitation and temperature of Alberta for historical and future periods. First, the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope were used to test for historical trends and trend magnitudes from the climate data of Alberta, respectively. Second, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, and B1) of CMIP3 (Phase 3 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), projected by seven general circulation models (GCM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for three 30 years periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s), were used to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature of Alberta. Third, trends of projected precipitation and temperature were investigated, and differences between historical versus projected trends were estimated. Using the 50-km resolution dataset from CANGRD (Canadian Grid Climate Data), we found that Alberta had become warmer and somewhat drier for the past 112 years (1900-2011), especially in central and southern Alberta. For observed precipitation, upward trends mainly occurred in northern Alberta and at the leeward side of Canadian Rocky Mountains. However, only about 13 to 22 % of observed precipitation showed statistically significant increasing trends at 5 % significant level. Most observed temperature showed significant increasing trends, up to 0.05 °C/year in DJF (December, January, and February) in northern Alberta. GCMs' SRES projections indicated that seasonal precipitation of Alberta could change from -25 to 36 %, while the temperature would increase from 2020s to 2080s, with the largest increase (6.8 °C) in DJF. In all 21 GCM-SRES cases considered, precipitation in both DJF and MAM (March, April, and May) is projected to increase, while temperature is consistently projected to increase in all seasons, which generally agree with the trends of historical precipitation and temperature. The SRES A1B scenario of CCSM3 might project more realistic future climate for

  15. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion

  16. Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Schwartz, David P.; Ponce, David A.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2010-01-01

    We construct kinematic earthquake rupture models for a suite of 39 Mw 6.6-7.2 scenario earthquakes involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture models in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al., 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical relations to provide realistic variation in the rupture dimensions, slip heterogeneity, hypocenters, rupture speeds, and rise times. The five rupture lengths include portions of the Hayward fault as well as combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults and the Hayward and Calaveras faults. We vary rupture directivity using multiple hypocenters, typically three per rupture length, yielding north-to-south rupture, bilateral rupture, and south-to-north rupture. For each rupture length and hypocenter, we consider multiple random distributions of slip. We use two approaches to account for how aseismic creep might reduce coseismic slip. For one subset of scenarios, we follow the slip-predictable approach and reduce the nominal slip in creeping regions according to the creep rate and time since the most recent earthquake, whereas for another subset of scenarios we apply a vertical gradient to the nominal slip in creeping regions. The rupture models include local variations in rupture speed and use a ray-tracing algorithm to propagate the rupture front. Although we are not attempting to simulate the 1868 Hayward fault earthquake in detail, a few of the scenarios are designed to have source parameters that might be similar to this historical event.

  17. Scenarios for Chemistry Teacher Training and Practice in Romania in 2030: Views of Chemistry Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Timofte, Roxana S.; Cozma, Danut G.

    2017-01-01

    Four scenarios regarding Chemistry teacher training and practice in Romania in 2030 were developed by using the 2x2 matrix design for scenario writing. The two driving forces taken in account for the design of scenarios were migration and consumerism. In two of the proposed scenarios teachers are trained to teach socioscientific courses at class.…

  18. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

  19. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    DOE PAGES

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; ...

    2016-04-14

    Here in this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO 2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010-2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic costmore » of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO 2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO 2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO 2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts a 11.3% reduction under the ‘high’ carbon tax. The main reasons for this difference are differences in assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO 2 storage capacity, and the ability to

  20. Climate Change Projection on Italian Alpine Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faggian, P.

    2005-12-01

    The analysis of surface temperature and total precipitation (monthly mean) in the latest set IPCC AOGCM simulations over the Mediterranean Area have been investigated to have projections of future climate change and its impacts on hydrologic cycle on Italian Alpine Region. At first an analysis of global climate model performances in reproducing observed monthly data has been done: 20C3M simulations have been considered to compare each IPCC model against time series meteorological North-Italy observations from 1951 to 2000. RMS error, BIAS, correlation coefficient have been calculated to have a first evaluation of model performances at annual and seasonal scales on our area. The same error indexes have been calculated considering also orographic information to distinguish mountain grid points from flat ones. Then for each model the "model mean climate", based on mean values on the 1981-2000 period, has been calculated and climate change in XXI century have been evaluate considering three different SRES scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). For each SRES scenario, the future climate change projection of each model has been calculated for twenty years periods, distinguishing also seasonal means. Then, considering the different ability of the global climate models to describe the XX century, some projections of future climate change have been calculated considering an ensemble averaging method.

  1. Sensitivity of Projected Streamflow Changes to Future Scenarios in Two Hydrologic Regimes in British Columbia, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schnorbus, M.; Werner, A. T.; Bennett, K. E.; Berland, A. J.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change projections are inherently uncertain. Nevertheless, we can use the range in climate projections to investigate the sensitivity of projected hydrologic changes to the main drivers, temperature and precipitation. British Columbia (BC), Canada, is a diverse province where climate change and resulting hydrologic change varies regionally. Two watersheds with unique hydro-climatic settings are analyzed. The Upper Campbell River watershed is located on Vancouver Island, where it experiences a typical coastal climate of mild wet winters and warm dry summers. The topography of the basin is such that a substantial portion of winter precipitation falls as snow and the basin exhibits a mixed nival-pluvial hydrologic regime. The Upper Peace River basin is located in north-eastern BC. It has a typical continental climate, where it is subject to cold winters, generally uniform precipitation throughout the year, and possesses a nival runoff regime. Streamflow change is assessed using an implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, parameterized with common historical forcing data (temperature, precipitation and wind), vegetation and soils in all basins. Streamflow changes are estimated based on eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP3 suite, run under three emissions scenarios (A2, A1B and B1), and statistically downscaled, for a total of 23 combinations (B1 was not available for UKMO_HADGEM1). These transient scenarios of temperature and precipitation were used to drive the VIC model, from 1950 to 2099, for each basin. We tested the sensitivity of streamflow changes for the 2050s (2041-2070), as an anomaly compared to the 1961-1990 period, by direct comparison with temperature (absolute) and precipitation (percentage) anomalies for all seasons. The major hydrologic response in both basins is a loss of natural snow storage in the winter, leading to a consistent signal of increased winter (DJF) discharge and decreased summer

  2. High-Energy Density Implications of a Gravitoweak Unification Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onofrio, Roberto

    2014-12-01

    We discuss how a scenario recently proposed for the morphing of macroscopic gravitation into weak interactions at the attometer scale affects our current understanding of high-energy density phenomena. We find that the Yukawa couplings of the fundamental fermions are directly related to their event horizons, setting an upper bound yf<=√ {2} for their observability through gauge interactions. Particles with larger Yukawa couplings are not precluded, but should interact only gravitationally, providing a natural candidate for dark matter. Furthermore, the quantum vacuum contribution to the cosmological constant is reduced by several orders of magnitude with respect to the current estimates. The expected running of the Newtonian gravitational constant could provide a viable alternative scenario to the inflationary stage of the Universe.

  3. Patterns of agent interaction scenarios as use case maps.

    PubMed

    Billard, Edward A

    2004-08-01

    A use case map (UCM) presents, in general, an abstract description of a complex system and, as such, is a good candidate for representing scenarios of autonomous agents interacting with other autonomous agents. The "gang of four" design patterns are intended for object-oriented software development but at least eight of the patterns illustrate structure, or architecture, that is appropriate for interacting agents, independent of software development. This study presents these particular patterns in the form of UCMs to describe abstract scenarios of agent interaction. Seven of the patterns attempt to balance the decentralized nature of interacting agents with an organized structure that makes for better, cleaner interactions. An example performance analysis is provided for one of the patterns, illustrating the benefit of an early abstraction of complex agent behavior. The original contribution here is a UCM presentation of the causal paths in agent behavior as suggested by software design patterns.

  4. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  5. Road traffic noise abatement scenarios in Gothenburg 2015 - 2035.

    PubMed

    Ögren, Mikael; Molnár, Peter; Barregard, Lars

    2018-03-28

    Exposure to high levels of road traffic noise at the most exposed building facade is increasing, both due to urbanization and due to overall traffic increase. This study investigated how different noise reduction measures would influence the noise exposure on a city-wide scale in Gothenburg, a city in Sweden with approximately 550,000 inhabitants. Noise exposure was estimated under several different scenarios for the period 2015-2035, using the standardized Nordic noise prediction method together with traffic flow measurements and population statistics. The scenarios were based on reducing speed limits, reducing traffic flows, introducing more electrically powered vehicles and introducing low-noise tires and pavements. The most effective measures were introducing low-noise tires or pavements, which in comparison to business as usual produced between 13% and 29% reduction in the number of inhabitants exposed above 55 dB equivalent level. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Certifying the quantumness of a generalized coherent control scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Scholak, Torsten, E-mail: tscholak@chem.utoronto.ca; Brumer, Paul

    2014-11-28

    We consider the role of quantum mechanics in a specific coherent control scenario, designing a “coherent control interferometer” as the essential tool that links coherent control to quantum fundamentals. Building upon this allows us to rigorously display the genuinely quantum nature of a generalized weak-field coherent control scenario (utilizing 1 vs. 2 photon excitation) via a Bell-CHSH test. Specifically, we propose an implementation of “quantum delayed-choice” in a bichromatic alkali atom photoionization experiment. The experimenter can choose between two complementary situations, which are characterized by a random photoelectron spin polarization with particle-like behavior on the one hand, and by spinmore » controllability and wave-like nature on the other. Because these two choices are conditioned coherently on states of the driving fields, it becomes physically unknowable, prior to measurement, whether there is control over the spin or not.« less

  7. Experimental and Model Validation of ITER Operational Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casper, T. A.; Meyer, W. H.; Humphreys, D. A.; Hyatt, A. W.; Jackson, G. L.; Luce, T. C.

    2008-11-01

    Modified startup scenarios demonstrated in DIII-D contributed to new ITER startup scenarios with a full-sized plasma and X-point formation early in time. Higher internal inductance in the original experiments led to modifications of the current ramp and the development of feedback control methods. While experimental validation in DIII-D provides a necessary demonstration of ITER operational modes, evaluation of the extrapolation to ITER requires a modeling approach. Our emphasis is on validating models used in ITER simulations by comparison to DIII-D experimental data. Meaningful startup predictions require an accurate model of electron thermal transport since the electron temperature is critical to the current profile evolution that affects the response of the control system. Using results of this model validation, free-boundary predictive simulations have explored the ITER operational issues of flux consumption, stability and performance of the ITER poloidal-field coils and controller during the current rise and into the burn phase.

  8. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    PubMed Central

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-01-01

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria. PMID:27874006

  9. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters.

    PubMed

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-11-22

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.

  10. Climate scenarios for the Truckee-Carson River system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, Michael; Sterle, Kelley; Simpson, Karen; Singletary, Loretta; Fitzgerald, Kelsey; McCarthy, Maureen

    2017-01-01

    In this study, the scenarios ultimately take the form of gridded, daily (maximum and minimum) temperatures and precipitation totals spanning the entire Truckee-Carson River System, from which meteorological inputs to various hydrologic, water-balance and watermanagement models can be extracted by other parts of the Water for the Seasons project and by other studies and stakeholders. Climate scenarios are constructed using: 1) survey data from interviews with 66 Truckee-Carson River System water-management and water-interest organizations to identify plausible drought and high-flow events that could stress the system irreparably; 2) input from the Stakeholder Affiliate Group and other modelers on the Water for the Seasons team to gain additional key stakeholder input with regard to organizational survey results and to identify the most pressing water-management issues being faced in the system; and 3) historical climate datasets used to simulate possible future conditions.

  11. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  12. Estimating surface faulting impacts from the shakeout scenario earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Treiman, J.A.; Pontib, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    An earthquake scenario, based on a kinematic rupture model, has been prepared for a Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The rupture distribution, in the context of other historic large earthquakes, is judged reasonable for the purposes of this scenario. This model is used as the basis for generating a surface rupture map and for assessing potential direct impacts on lifelines and other infrastructure. Modeling the surface rupture involves identifying fault traces on which to place the rupture, assigning slip values to the fault traces, and characterizing the specific displacements that would occur to each lifeline impacted by the rupture. Different approaches were required to address variable slip distribution in response to a variety of fault patterns. Our results, involving judgment and experience, represent one plausible outcome and are not predictive because of the variable nature of surface rupture. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  13. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Lowery, Nathan; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter

    2007-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  14. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  15. On the extra force in brane world scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bejancu, Aurel; Farran, Hani Reda

    2014-09-01

    In the study of the dynamics in a 5D bulk from brane world scenario, an extra force with abnormal properties was detected (cf. [D. Youm, Extra force in brane worlds, Phys. Rev. D62 (2000) 084002; D. Youm, Null geodesics in brane world universe, Mod. Phys. Lett. A16 (2001) 2371; L. F. Zhang and Y. Z. Zhang, Null geodesics in brane world scenarios, Commun. Theor. Phys. (Beijing)41 (2004) 48]). In this paper, by using the Riemannian horizontal connection introduced in [A. Bejancu, A new point of view on general Kaluza-Klein theories, Progr. Theor. Phys.128 (2012) 541], we give a new definition for the extra force in a 5D bulk, and show that it does not contradict the 4D physics. In particular, we show that this force appears very rarely along geodesics in a warped 5D bulk.

  16. Police lie detection accuracy: the effect of lie scenario.

    PubMed

    O'Sullivan, Maureen; Frank, Mark G; Hurley, Carolyn M; Tiwana, Jaspreet

    2009-12-01

    Although most people are not better than chance in detecting deception, some groups of police professionals have demonstrated significant lie detection accuracy. One reason for this difference may be that the types of lies police are asked to judge in scientific experiments often do not represent the types of lies they see in their profession. Across 23 studies, involving 31 different police groups in eight countries, police officers tested with lie detection scenarios using high stakes lies (i.e., the lie was personally involving and/or resulted in substantial rewards or punishments for the liar) were significantly more accurate than law enforcement officials tested with low stakes lies. Face validity and construct validity of various lie scenarios are differentiated.

  17. Damage scenarios and an onboard support system for damaged ships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Jin; Lee, Dongkon; Kang, Hee Jin; Kim, Soo-Young; Shin, Sung-Chul

    2014-06-01

    Although a safety assessment of damaged ships, which considers environmental conditions such as waves and wind, is important in both the design and operation phases of ships, in Korea, rules or guidelines to conduct such assessments are not yet developed. However, NATO and European maritime societies have developed guidelines for a safety assessment. Therefore, it is required to develop rules or guidelines for safety assessments such as the Naval Ship Code (NSC) of NATO. Before the safety assessment of a damaged ship can be performed, the available damage scenarios must be developed and the safety assessment criteria must be established. In this paper, the parameters related to damage by accidents are identified and categorized when developing damage scenarios. The need for damage safety assessment criteria is discussed, and an example is presented. In addition, a concept and specifications for the DB-based supporting system, which is used in the operation phases, are proposed.

  18. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessmentmore » Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.« less

  19. Hypothermia in a Rural Setting: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Felix; Jong, Robert; Heroux, Aron; Dubrowski, Adam

    2017-12-28

    Patients presenting with hypothermia in a rural emergency department can be quite challenging to manage without significant mortality and morbidity. Standard medical school curricula do not fully prepare trainees for the unique aspects of practice in northern rural and remote communities. Training opportunities on site may provide a solution to this lack of experience. However, these communities often have limited simulation-based resources and expertise for conducting and developing simulation scenarios. In this technical report, we outline a hypothermia simulation that utilizes only basic resources and is, thus, practical for rural and remote facilities. The aim of this report is to better equip trainees, clinicians, and emergency department staff who may encounter such a scenario in their practice. While the simulation is specifically designed for medical students, resident doctors, and emergency department staff, it could also be applicable in other low-resource settings, such as military bases, search and rescue stations, and arctic travel and tourism infirmaries.

  20. Effect of scenario and experience on interpretation of mach bands.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, C J

    2001-11-01

    The creation of the radiographic illusion known as a mach band at the intersection of two images of differing radiopacities can be misinterpreted as pathosis in certain situations. After reviewing instances where misinterpretation may occur, this study asked 33 fourth-year dental students and 40 dentists to interpret the same radiograph involving a maxillary central incisor under two different hypothetical scenarios: first, in the case of a patient requesting vital bleaching, and second, where a patient has received recent trauma to the mouth. Results showed that dental students are more susceptible than dentists to misinterpreting as a horizontal root fracture (a mach band illusion) what is known to be the junction of alveolar crestal bone and root. Furthermore when presented with a scenario of trauma, both students and dentists are more likely to mistake what is being seen as being a fracture line.

  1. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    DOE PAGES

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-11-22

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethoramore » of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Lastly, our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.« less

  2. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of themore » attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.« less

  3. Elastic total cross-sections in an RSIIp scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arceo, R.; Pedraza, Omar; López, L. A.; Valencia-Palomo, L.; González-Espinosa, E.; Leon-Soto, G.; Kurtz, Stan

    2016-10-01

    The total elastic nucleon-nucleus cross-section is calculated at energies up to 600 MeV for the elements 12C, 208Pb, 16O, 9Be, 4He, 2H, 238U and 27Al using a finite electromagnetic potential, which is obtained considering a Randall-Sundrum II scenario modified by the inclusion of p compact extra dimensions. The length scale bound is set in the potential to compare with known experimental data.

  4. ANTI-GLITCHES WITHIN THE STANDARD SCENARIO OF PULSAR GLITCHES

    SciTech Connect

    Kantor, E. M.; Gusakov, M. E.

    2014-12-10

    Recent observations of a sudden spin down of the magnetar 1E2259+586, occurring on a timescale not exceeding two weeks (an event that has been dubbed an {sup a}nti-glitch{sup )}, still has not received any interpretation in terms of the standard scenario of pulsar glitches. Motivated by this observation, here we present a toy model that allows for anti-glitches in neutron stars under certain conditions within the standard approach.

  5. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  6. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  7. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    PubMed

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Multidecadal Fluvial Sediment Fluxes to Deltas under Environmental Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunn, Frances; Darby, Stephen; Nicholls, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Sediment delivery is vital to sustain delta environments on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Due to factors such as subsidence and sea level rise, deltas sink relative to sea level if sediment is not delivered to and retained on their surfaces. Deltas which sink relative to sea level experience flooding, land degradation and loss, which endangers anthropogenic activities and populations. The future of fluvial sediment fluxes, a key mechanism for sediment delivery to deltas, is uncertain due to complex environmental changes which are predicted to occur over the coming decades. This research investigates fluvial sediment fluxes under environmental changes in order to assess the sustainability of delta environments under potential future scenarios up to 2100. Global datasets of climate change, reservoir construction, and population and GDP as proxies for anthropogenic influence through land use changes are used to drive the catchment numerical model WBMsed, which is being used to investigate the effects of these environmental changes on fluvial sediment delivery. This process produces fluvial sediment fluxes under multiple future scenarios which will be used to assess the future sustainability of a selection of 8 vulnerable deltas, although the approach can be applied to deltas worldwide. By modelling potential future scenarios of fluvial sediment flux, this research contributes to the prognosis for delta environments. The future scenarios will inform management at multiple temporal scales, and indicate the potential consequences for deltas of various anthropogenic activities. This research will both forewarn managers of potentially unsustainable deltas and indicate those anthropogenic activities which encourage or hinder the creation of sustainable delta environments.

  9. Development of realistic RDD scenarios and their radiological consequence analyses.

    PubMed

    Shin, Hyeongki; Kim, Juyoul

    2009-01-01

    The terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, brought about deep interest on the radiological dispersal device (RDD) and the malevolent radiological event. In this study, realistic potential scenarios using RDD were developed. Among those probable radionuclides, (137)Cs and (241)Am were selected to simulate the radiological effects caused by dirty bomb. Their radiological consequences were assessed in terms of total effective dose, projected cumulative external and internal dose and ground deposition of radioactivity.

  10. Developing Simulated Cyber Attack Scenarios Against Virtualized Adversary Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-03-01

    them. These scenario files or scripts allow the tester to combine various amalgamations of the SimWare modules as needed to exercise various... exercised and tested; and 3) methods to observe the resulting behavior in the testing environment. 1. Metasploit Framework The Metasploit...as a foundational base. 5. STEPfwd The STEPfwd (Simulation, Training and, Exercise Platform) platform is an online cyber/information assurance

  11. Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

    2016-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

  12. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  13. Team Modelling: Review of Experimental Scenarios and Computational Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-09-01

    integration (HSI) interventions, as well as identifying where DRDC should focus its attention , either with respect to HSI or with respect to team research...Since limited attention has been given to some of these factors, the scenarios were developed to target this gap with the aim of offering...Thomas, L. (2003). Attention -Situation Awareness (A-SA) Model. In D.C. Foyle, A. Goodman & B.L. Hooey (Eds.), Proceedings of the 2003 Conference on

  14. Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, E. Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

  15. NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barbee, Brent; Syal, Megan Bruck; Gisler, Galen

    2016-01-01

    This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

  16. Performance Evaluation of LoRa Considering Scenario Conditions.

    PubMed

    Sanchez-Iborra, Ramon; Sanchez-Gomez, Jesus; Ballesta-Viñas, Juan; Cano, Maria-Dolores; Skarmeta, Antonio F

    2018-03-03

    New verticals within the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm such as smart cities, smart farming, or goods monitoring, among many others, are demanding strong requirements to the Radio Access Network (RAN) in terms of coverage, end-node's power consumption, and scalability. The technologies employed so far to provide IoT scenarios with connectivity, e.g., wireless sensor network and cellular technologies, are not able to simultaneously cope with these three requirements. Thus, a novel solution known as Low Power - Wide Area Network (LP-WAN) has emerged as a promising alternative to provide with low-cost and low-power-consumption connectivity to end-nodes spread in a wide area. Concretely, the Long-Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) technology is one of the LP-WAN platforms that is receiving greater attention from both the industry and the academia. For that reason, in this work, a comprehensive performance evaluation of LoRaWAN under different environmental conditions is presented. The results are obtained from three real scenarios, namely, urban, suburban, and rural, considering both dynamic and static conditions, hence a discussion about the most proper LoRaWAN physical-layer configuration for each scenario is provided. Besides, a theoretical coverage study is also conducted by the use of a radio planning tool considering topographic maps and a precise propagation model. From the attained results, it can be concluded that it is necessary to evaluate the propagation conditions of the deployment scenario prior to the system implantation in order to reach a compromise between the robustness of the network and the transmission data-rate.

  17. Identification using face regions: application and assessment in forensic scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ramos, Daniel

    2013-12-10

    This paper reports an exhaustive analysis of the discriminative power of the different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios. In practice, when forensic examiners compare two face images, they focus their attention not only on the overall similarity of the two faces. They carry out an exhaustive morphological comparison region by region (e.g., nose, mouth, eyebrows, etc.). In this scenario it is very important to know based on scientific methods to what extent each facial region can help in identifying a person. This knowledge obtained using quantitative and statical methods on given populations can then be used by the examiner to support or tune his observations. In order to generate such scientific knowledge useful for the expert, several methodologies are compared, such as manual and automatic facial landmarks extraction, different facial regions extractors, and various distances between the subject and the acquisition camera. Also, three scenarios of interest for forensics are considered comparing mugshot and Closed-Circuit TeleVision (CCTV) face images using MORPH and SCface databases. One of the findings is that depending of the acquisition distances, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Scenarios for low carbon and low water electric power plant ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In the water-energy nexus, water use for the electric power sector is critical. Currently, the operational phase of electric power production dominates the electric sector's life cycle withdrawal and consumption of fresh water resources. Water use associated with the fuel cycle and power plant equipment manufacturing phase is substantially lower on a life cycle basis. An outstanding question is: how do regional shifts to lower carbon electric power mixes affect the relative contribution of the upstream life cycle water use? To test this, we examine a range of scenarios comparing a baseline with scenarios of carbon reduction and water use constraints using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy systems model with ORD's 2014 U.S. 9-region database (EPAUS9r). The results suggest that moving toward a low carbon and low water electric power mix may increase the non-operational water use. In particular, power plant manufacturing water use for concentrating solar power, and fuel cycle water use for biomass feedstock, could see sharp increases under scenarios of high deployment of these low carbon options. Our analysis addresses the following questions. First, how does moving to a lower carbon electricity generation mix affect the overall regional electric power water use from a life cycle perspective? Second, how does constraining the operational water use for power plants affect the mix, if at all? Third, how does the life cycle water use differ among regions under

  19. Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Sardini, M.

    2012-07-01

    The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonablemore » according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)« less

  20. Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis.

    PubMed

    Ercin, A Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2014-03-01

    This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF) of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change. In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050. The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    PubMed

    Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  2. A Numerical Check of the Collisional Resurfacing Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thébault, Philippe

    2003-06-01

    We present a numerical investigation aimed at checking the so-called Collisional Resurfacing scenario (CR) through one important prediction it makes: do the observed inhomogeneities of color indexes within the Kuiper Belt (KB) match inhomogeneities in collision rates and efficiencies? To quantitatively answer this question, a deterministic model has been developed, which estimates the spatial distribution of the relative amount of collisional energy Σ Ecin received by objects in the present Kuiper Belt. Several Kuiper Belt configurations have been explored. Results do show some similarities with color-index distributions within the observed belt, in particular a global correlation between high Σ Ecin values and high orbital excitations. Nevertheless, for all tested simulations we find other features of the Σ Ecin distributions that significantly depart from the spatial distribution of color-index inhomogeneities. The main problems are mainly too weak correlations with inclinations and too large Σ Ecin for the plutinos. Whether these contradictions invalidate the whole CR scenario or not remains yet uncertain, since the physical processes at play are still far from being fully understood and the sample of available observational data is still relatively limited. However, it seems nevertheless that the scenario might not hold in its simple present form.

  3. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    SciTech Connect

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo, E-mail: gianmassimo.tasinato@port.ac.uk

    2015-03-01

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesismore » potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.« less

  4. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    SciTech Connect

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo; Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth,Portsmouth, PO1 3FX

    2015-03-23

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesismore » potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.« less

  5. Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

  6. Contrasting catastrophic eruptions predicted by different intrusion and collapse scenarios.

    PubMed

    Rincón, M; Márquez, A; Herrera, R; Alonso-Torres, A; Granja-Bruña, J L; van Wyk de Vries, B

    2018-04-18

    Catastrophic volcanic eruptions triggered by landslide collapses can jet upwards or blast sideways. Magma intrusion is related to both landslide-triggered eruptive scenarios (lateral or vertical), but it is not clear how such different responses are produced, nor if any precursor can be used for forecasting them. We approach this problem with physical analogue modelling enhanced with X-ray Multiple Detector Computed Tomography scanning, used to track evolution of internal intrusion, and its related faulting and surface deformation. We find that intrusions produce three different volcano deformation patterns, one of them involving asymmetric intrusion and deformation, with the early development of a listric slump fault producing pronounced slippage of one sector. This previously undescribed early deep potential slip surface provides a unified explanation for the two different eruptive scenarios (lateral vs. vertical). Lateral blast only occurs in flank collapse when the intrusion has risen into the sliding block. Otherwise, vertical rather than lateral expansion of magma is promoted by summit dilatation and flank buttressing. The distinctive surface deformation evolution detected opens the possibility to forecast the possible eruptive scenarios: laterally directed blast should only be expected when surface deformation begins to develop oblique to the first major fault.

  7. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Segura, Juan; Franco, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive. PMID:28151983

  8. Mortality estimation based on Business as Usual Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos; Barlas, Ceren

    2013-04-01

    Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. Epidemiological studies have shown that these pollutants increase lung cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the concentration of such pollutants in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050), based on a Business as Usual scenario. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). Based on the modeled pollutants concentrations and the UN estimates of population growth in the future, we assessed the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. The premature mortality for people of 30 years and older were estimated using a health impact function using parameters derived from epidemiological studies. Our results suggest that with a Business as Usual scenario, the ratio between mortality and population would increase of ~ 50% by 2050. This ratio, together with the increase of world population, would lead by the year 2050 to 8.9 millions premature deaths, equivalent to 79 millions of YYL.

  9. Patient HC with developmental amnesia can construct future scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Hurley, Niamh C.; Maguire, Eleanor A.; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh

    2011-01-01

    Deficits in recalling the past and imagining fictitious and future scenarios have been documented in patients with hippocampal damage and amnesia that was acquired in adulthood. By contrast patients with very early hippocampal damage and developmental amnesia are not impaired relative to control participants when imagining fictitious/future experiences. Recently, however, a patient (HC) with developmental amnesia, resulting from bilateral hippocampal atrophy, was reported to be impaired, thus raising a question about the true nature of event construction in the context of developmental amnesia. Here, we assessed HC on a test of imagination which explored her ability to construct fictitious events or personal plausible future events. Her scenario descriptions were analysed in detail along a range of parameters, using two different scoring methods. HC's performance was comparable to matched control participants on all measures relating to the imagination of fictitious and future scenarios. We then considered why she was reported as impaired in the previous study. We conclude that various features of the previous testing methodology may have contributed to the underestimation of HC's ability in that instance. Patients like HC with developmental amnesia may be successful at future-thinking tasks because their performance is not based on true visualisation or scene construction supported by the hippocampus, but rather on preserved world knowledge and semantic representations. PMID:21964201

  10. Alternative scenarios to meet the demands of sustainable waste management.

    PubMed

    Bovea, M D; Powell, J C

    2006-04-01

    This paper analyses different alternatives for solid waste management that can be implemented to enable the targets required by the European Landfill and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives to be achieved in the Valencian Community, on the east coast of Spain. The methodology applied to evaluate the environmental performance of each alternative is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis has been performed at two levels; first, the emissions accounted for in the inventory stage have been arranged into impact categories to obtain an indicator for each category; and secondly, the weighting of environmental data to a single unit has been applied. Despite quantitative differences between the results obtained with four alternative impact assessment methods, the same preference ranking has been established: scenarios with energy recovery (1v and 2v) achieve major improvements compared to baseline, with scenario 1v being better than 2v for all impact assessment methods except for the EPS'00 method, which obtains better results for scenario 2v. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test some of the assumptions used in the initial life cycle inventory model but none have a significant effect on the overall results. As a result, the best alternative to the existing waste management system can be identified.

  11. Developing seasonal rainfall scenarios for food security early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husak, Gregory J.; Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel; Magadzire, Tamuka; Goldsberry, Kirk P.

    2013-10-01

    Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought.

  12. Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario?

    SciTech Connect

    Kanemura, Shinya; Nabeshima, Takehiro; Matsumoto, Shigeki

    2010-09-01

    Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ''nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various observations. One of the promising candidates for thermal relic dark matter is a stable and electric charge-neutral weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) with mass below the TeV scale. In the nightmare scenario, we introduce a WIMP dark matter singlet undermore » the standard model gauge group, which only couples to the Higgs doublet at the lowest order, and investigate the possibility that such WIMP dark matter can be a clue to overcome the nightmare scenario via various phenomenological tests such as the dark matter relic abundance, the direct detection experiments for the dark matter particle, and the production of the dark matter particle at the LHC.« less

  13. Stars with relativistic speeds in the Hills scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dremova, G. N.; Dremov, V. V.; Tutukov, A. V.

    2017-07-01

    The dynamical capture of a binary system consisting of a supermassive black hole (SMBH) and an ordinary star in the gravitational field of a central (more massive) SMBH is considered in the three-body problem in the framework of a modified Hills scenario. The results of numerical simulations predict the existence of objects whose spatial speeds are comparable to the speed of light. The conditions for and constraints imposed on the ejection speeds realized in a classical scenario and the modified Hills scenario are analyzed. The star is modeled using an N-body approach, making it possible to treat it as a structured object, enabling estimation of the probability that the object survives when it is ejected with relativistic speed as a function of the mass of the star, the masses of both SMBHs, and the pericenter distance. It is possible that the modern kinematic classification for stars with anomalously high spatial velocities will be augmented with a new class—stars with relativistic speeds.

  14. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    PubMed

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  15. Scenario Study on PM emission Reduction in Cement Industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Qian; Chen, Xiaojun; Xia, Xin; Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Huili; Jin, Ling; Yan, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    Cement industry is one of the high pollution industries in China. Evaluation of the primary particulate matter (PM) emission status and the reduction potential is not only important for our understanding of the effectiveness of current pollution control measures but also vital for future policy design. In this study, PM emitted from cement producing process in 2014 was calculated using an emission factor method. Three PM emission control scenarios were set up considering source control, process management and end-of-pipe treatment, and the PM emission reduction by 2020 under the three scenarios was predicted, respectively. In 2014, the primary PM emission from cement industry was 1.95 million tons. By 2020, the productions of cement and clinker were expected to increase by 12% and 7%, respectively, and the PM emission would increase by about 10%. By implementation of GB4915-2013 and comprehensive control of fugitive PM emission, the PM emission would probably be reduced by 34%. Another 7% decrease would be expected from source control. The second scenario can be considered as an assessment of the effectiveness of the revised emission standard, and this research can be used as a technical support to the environmental management authorities to make relevant policies.

  16. The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

    2012-08-01

    The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high

  17. Formation of Compact Ellipticals in the merging star cluster scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urrutia Zapata, Fernanda Cecilia; Theory and star formation group

    2018-01-01

    In the last years, extended old stellar clusters have been observed. They are like globular clusters (GCs) but with larger sizes(a limit of Re=10 pc is currently seen as reasonable). These extended objects (EOs) cover a huge range of mass. Objects at the low mass end with masses comparable to normal globular clusters are called extended clusters or faint fuzzies Larsen & Brodie (2000) and objects at the high-mass end are called ultra compact dwarf galaxies (UCDs). Ultra compact dwarf galaxies are compact object with luminositys above the brigtest known GCs. UCDs are more compact than typical dwarf galaxies but with comparable luminosities. Usually, a lower mass limit of 2 × 10^6 Solar masses is applied.Fellhauer & Kroupa (2002a,b) demostrated that object like ECs, FFs and UCDs can be the remnants of the merger of star clusters complexes, this scenario is called the Merging Star Cluster Scenario. Amore concise study was performed by Bruens et al. (2009, 2011).Our work tries to explain the formation of compact elliptical(cE). These objects are a comparatively rare class of spheroidal galaxies, possessing very small Re and high central surface brightnesses (Faber 1973). cEs have the same parameters as extended objects but they are slightly larger than 100 pc and the luminosities are in the range of -11 to -12 Mag.The standard formation sceanrio of these systems proposes a galaxy origin. CEs are the result of tidal stripping and truncation of nucleated larger systems. Or they could be a natural extension of the class of elliptical galaxies to lower luminosities and smaller sizes.We want to propose a completely new formation scenario for cEs. In our project we try to model cEs in a similar way that UCDs using the merging star cluster scenario extended to much higher masses and sizes. We think that in the early Universe we might have produced sufficiently strong star bursts to form cluster complexes which merge into cEs. So far it is observationally unknown if cEs are

  18. Likely changes in growing season indices under a climate change scenario for crop production in South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ambrosino, C.; Chandler, R. E.; Todd, M. C.

    2011-12-01

    Agriculture is still the major source of income and livelihood for most of South Africa's population, and cereals and grains are among the country's most important crops. In particular, the largest locally produced field crop and the most important source of carbohydrates in South Africa is maize (Zea mays L.). As well as extensive monoculture, maize production also dominates the smallholder farming system in areas such as the Limpopo District in north-east South Africa. It is therefore critical to understand the year-to-year changes in the planting season and rainfall characteristics in order to introduce management decision and mitigation measures in the agricultural sector (e.g. planting of drought-resistant crops or the choice between long and short-season cultivars). Indeed, one of the strategies that may be easily introduced by farmers is shifting the crop planting dates to adjust to changes in the rainfall regimes. The study presented here aims to characterise the inter-annual growing season variability through the use of 7 indices derived from daily precipitation, considered the most critical factor in rain-fed agriculture, having an impact on maize production. A statistical model is developed to generate daily rainfall sequences for the study area driven by large scale climate controls. An independent validation period is chosen to evaluate the performance of the statistical model in the rainfall generation process. Onset, length and cessation of the growing season, as well as indices representing the length of the mean and maximum dry spell during the season are derived from the area average daily simulated precipitation values. The fraction of rainy days and total precipitation during the growing season are also calculated. Finally, the projected change of the growing season indices between two investigated periods in the 20th and 21st centuries is investigated under a climate change scenario (a1b; e.g.: Fig.1). The outputs of this study may be used to

  19. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  20. Management scenarios for the Jordan River salinity crisis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farber, E.; Vengosh, A.; Gavrieli, I.; Marie, Amarisa; Bullen, T.D.; Mayer, B.; Holtzman, R.; Segal, M.; Shavit, U.

    2005-01-01

    Recent geochemical and hydrological findings show that the water quality of the base flow of the Lower Jordan River, between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is dependent upon the ratio between surface water flow and groundwater discharge. Using water quality data, mass-balance calculations, and actual flow-rate measurements, possible management scenarios for the Lower Jordan River and their potential affects on its salinity are investigated. The predicted scenarios reveal that implementation of some elements of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty will have negative effects on the Jordan River water salinity. It is predicted that removal of sewage effluents dumped into the river (???13 MCM/a) will significantly reduce the river water's flow and increase the relative proportion of the saline groundwater flux into the river. Under this scenario, the Cl content of the river at its southern point (Abdalla Bridge) will rise to almost 7000 mg/L during the summer. In contrast, removal of all the saline water (16.5 MCM/a) that is artificially discharged into the Lower Jordan River will significantly reduce its Cl concentration, to levels of 650-2600 and 3000-3500 mg/L in the northern and southern areas of the Lower Jordan River, respectively. However, because the removal of either the sewage effluents or the saline water will decrease the river's discharge to a level that could potentially cause river desiccation during the summer months, other water sources must be allocated to preserve in-stream flow needs and hence the river's ecosystem. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Scenario approximation in a phenomenological study in Mexico: experience report.

    PubMed

    Guerrero-Castañeda, Raúl Fernando; Menezes, Tânia Maria de Oliva; Vargas, Ma Guadalupe Ojeda

    2017-01-01

    To report our experience using scenario approximation in a phenomenological study of nursing in Mexico. Experience report on scenario approximation to coexist with elderly in order to select the participants of a phenomenological study. During a four-month period in 2016, visits were carried out two groups of elderly individuals where several activities were carried out. Coexistence with the elderly throughout accompaniment in the groups' activities together with joint dialogue allowed selection of those who corresponded to the characteristics of the study objective. Scenario approximation is necessary in phenomenological studies, not only for creating empathy among the participants but also for the researchers to immerse themselves in the phenomenon under study, as shown by the first approaches of the researcher. Relatar la experiencia del acercamiento al escenario de un estudio fenomenológico en enfermería en México. Relato de experiencia sobre el acercamiento al escenario de estudio para convivir con adultos mayores con la finalidad de seleccionar a los participantes de un estudio fenomenológico. Se llevaron a cabo visitas durante el año 2016, en un periodo de cuatro meses a dos grupos de adultos mayores en donde se realizaron diversas actividades. La convivencia con los adultos mayores a través del acompañamiento en las actividades que realizaban en los grupos y el diálogo conjunto permitió seleccionar a aquellos que respondían a las características del objeto de estudio. Es necesaria la aproximación al escenario de estudios fenomenológicos, no sólo con la finalidad de ganar empatía de los participantes sino para sumergirse en el fenómeno de estudio, mismo que se va mostrando desde los primeros acercamientos del investigador.

  2. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  3. Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in

  4. Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security.

    PubMed

    Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in

  5. Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)