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Sample records for a1b sres scenario

  1. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  2. Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jae-Bum; Cha, Jun-Seok; Hong, Sung-Chul; Choi, Jin-Young; Myoung, Ji-Su; Park, Rokjin J.; Woo, Jung-Hun; Ho, Changhoi; Han, Jin-Seok; Song, Chang-Keun

    2015-04-01

    We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global-regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996-2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4-0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016-2025 (the 2020s), 2046-2055 (the 2050s), and 2091-2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2-8 ppb, -3 to 8 ppb, and -7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.

  3. A coupled model study on the intensification of the Asian summer monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Min

    2005-11-01

    The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered. Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations (1860-1990) and projected into the future (1990-2100) according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, Nakićenović et al., 2000) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.

  4. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    PubMed

    Cummings, Christopher L; Kuzma, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  5. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES): Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Synthetic biology (SB) applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES) in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance. PMID:28052080

  6. Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia: An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B.

    PubMed

    Mihailović, D T; Drešković, N; Arsenić, I; Ćirić, V; Djurdjević, V; Mimić, G; Pap, I; Balaž, I

    2016-11-15

    We considered temporal and spatial variations to the thermal and moisture regimes of the most common RSGs (Reference Soil Groups) in Serbia under the A1B scenario for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to the 1961-1990 period. We utilized dynamically downscaled global climate simulations from the ECHAM5 model using the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model). We analysed the soil temperature and moisture time series using simple statistics and a Kolmogorov complexity (KC) analysis. The corresponding metrics were calculated for 150 sites. In the future, warmer and drier regimes can be expected for all RSGs in Serbia. The calculated soil temperature and moisture variations include increases in the mean annual soil temperature (up to 3.8°C) and decreases in the mean annual soil moisture (up to 11.3%). Based on the KC values, the soils in Serbia are classified with respect to climate change impacts as (1) less sensitive (Vertisols, Umbrisols and Dystric Cambisols) or (2) more sensitive (Chernozems, Eutric Cambisols and Planosols).

  7. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  8. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  9. Projected SST trends across the Caribbean Sea based on PRECIS downscaling of ECHAM4, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nurse, Leonard A.; Charlery, John L.

    2016-01-01

    The Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are highly sensitive to the projected impacts of global climate change. The countries bordering the Caribbean Sea depend heavily on coastal and marine assets as a major source of livelihood support. Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are known to be associated with coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other phenomena that threaten livelihoods in the region. The paucity of SST systematic observations in both the Caribbean Sea and adjoining Western Atlantic waters is a limiting factor in the projection of future climate change impacts on the region's marine resources. Remote sensing of SST by satellites began only within the last three decades and although the data collected so far might be insufficient to provide conclusive definitions of long-term SST variations in the Caribbean waters, these data along with the output from climate model simulations provide a useful basis for gaining further insights into plausible SST futures under IPCC SRES scenarios. In this paper, we examine the recent SST records from the NESDIS AVHRR satellite data and NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature V2 and provide a comparative analysis of projected SST changes for the Caribbean Sea up to the end of the twenty-first century, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios' simulations of the sea surface skin temperatures (SSsT) using the Hadley Centre's regional model, PRECIS. The implications of these projected SST changes for bleaching of coral reefs, one of the region's most valuable marine resource, and for rainfall are also discussed.

  10. Natural modes of variability in the A1B scenario: Atmospheric forcing anomalies associated with NAO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markovic, Michaela; Klein, Birgit; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Mathis, Moritz

    2015-04-01

    A global fully coupled climate scenario run based on the Max Plank Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) is used to disentangle the effect of internal climatic modes, e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), from climate change signals in the North Sea. By placing one grid pole on Central Europe, enhanced spatial resolution for the European seas was obtained (up to 4 km in the German Bight). This allows a regional scale resolution within the global model, without the inherent problems of prescribed lateral boundary conditions. Furthermore, it provides sufficient resolution to study the leading modes of variability in the circulation and climate of the North Sea, as well as their connection to exchange processes with adjacent parts of the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability affecting the North Sea with amplitudes comparable to the climate change signal. Here we investigate in the fully coupled scenario run how the NAO impact the surface heat fluxes, which comprises the sum of the four components: net surface solar radiation, net surface thermal radiation, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux. In particular, we analyzed NAO+ and NAO- composites. The results show that the largest contributions to the net radiation balance are attributed to the sensible heat flux and the latent heat fluxes. The highest anomalies in both variables are found over the Norwegian Trench which are related to mixed layer dynamics, circulation changes, and changing in the mean wind field. This modification in the mixed layer dynamics, and mean wind fields will be further investigated.

  11. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

    2012-04-01

    We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

  12. Climatic controls on biophysical interactions in the Black Sea under present day conditions and a potential future (A1B) climate scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannaby, Heather; Fach, Bettina A.; Arkin, Sinan S.; Salihoglu, Baris

    2015-01-01

    A dynamical downscaling approach has been applied to investigate climatic controls on biophysical interactions and lower trophic level dynamics in the Black Sea. Simulations were performed under present day conditions (1980-1999) and a potential future (2080-2099) climate scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario. Simulations project a 3.7 °C increase in SST, a 25% increase in the stability of the seasonal thermocline and a 37 day increase in the duration of seasonal stratification. Increased winter temperatures inhibited the formation of Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) waters resulting in near complete erosion of the CIL, with implications for the ventilation of intermediate water masses and the subduction of riverine nutrients. A 4% increase in nitrate availability within the upper 30 m of the water column reflected an increase in the retention time of river water within the surface mixed-layer. Changes in thermohaline structure, combined with a 27% reduction in positive wind stress curl, forced a distinct change in the structure of the basin-scale circulation. The predominantly cyclonic circulation characteristic of contemporary conditions was reversed within the southern and eastern regions of the basin, where under A1B climatic conditions, anticyclonic circulation prevailed. The change in circulation structure significantly altered the horizontal advection and dispersion of high nutrient river waters originating on the NW self. Net primary production increased by 5% on average, with much spatial variability in the response, linked to advective processes. Phytoplankton biomass also increased by 5% and the higher nutrient environment of the future scenario caused a shift in species composition in favour of larger phytoplankton. No significant change in zooplankton biomass was projected. These results constitute one of many possible future scenarios for the Black Sea, being dependent on the modelling

  13. Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

    2007-03-26

    We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

  14. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  15. Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

    2016-04-01

    In order to design adaptive strategies to global change we need to assess the future impact of climate change on water resources, which depends on precipitation and temperature series in the systems. The objective of this work is to generate future climate series in the "Alto Genil" Basin (southeast Spain) for the period 2071-2100 by perturbing the historical series using different statistical methods. For this targeted we use information coming from regionals climate model simulations (RCMs) available in two European projects, CORDEX (2013), with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, and ENSEMBLES (2009), with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The historical climate series used for the period 1971-2000 have been obtained from Spain02 project (2012) which has the same spatial resolution that CORDEX project (both use the EURO-CORDEX grid). Two emission scenarios have been considered: the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the A1B emission scenario of fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We use the RCM simulations to create an ensemble of predictions weighting their information according to their ability to reproduce the main statistic of the historical climatology. A multi-objective analysis has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to the cited statistic of the historical series. The ensemble of the CORDEX and the ENSEMBLES projects has been finally created with nine and four models respectively. These ensemble series have been used to assess the anomalies in mean and standard deviation (differences between the control and future RCM series). A "delta-change" method (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2011) has been applied to define future series by modifying the historical climate series in accordance with the cited anomalies in mean and standard deviation. A

  16. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

    2016-04-01

    Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of

  17. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  18. Methodologies for Estimating Future Climate Change Scenarios of Surface Solar Radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swamy, A.

    2013-12-01

    A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study. In Case 1, SR is measured; in Case 2, SR is measured but sparse; and in Case 3, SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the large-scale information simulated by global climate models (GCM) to a local scale (measurements). In Case 2, SR is first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, then future scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3, SR is first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time-period using complete or sparse measured records of SR, from which SR at local scale is estimated. Finally, in Case 3 methodology, the future scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies. A lack of observed SR data, has hindered various climate change impact studies. So Case 3 methodology is elaborated using Support vector machine based downscaling. Future scenarios of SR were estimated monthly from simulations of the third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT).

  19. The new ENSEMBLES E1 mitigation scenario for future climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Royer, J.-F.; Lowe, J.; Johns, T.; van Vuuren, D.; Stehfest, E.; Denoblet-Ducoudré, N.; Boucher, O.; Rognerud, B.; Huebener, H.

    2009-04-01

    Climate simulations with state-of-the-art earth-system models are required to study the potential impacts of climate change, and possible solutions for avoiding, or reducing, some of its undesirable consequences. Though several emission scenarios have been applied for the IPCC AR4 assessments, the differences in the SRES scenarios result mainly from varying degrees of globalization, the role of environmental and social policy, economic and population growth and the rate of technology development. It seems then necessary to consider also more stringent mitigation pathways which aim eventually to implement a climate mitigation policy. In particular it appears particularly useful to implement and analyse climate scenarios for stabilising the additional anthropogenic radiative forcing to that equivalent to a carbon dioxide concentration at around 450 ppm during the 22nd Century for attempting to match the European Union target of keeping global anthropogenic warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A new set of climate simulations over the 21st century with improved earth-system models has thus been designed by the European modelling groups participating to the European FP6 project ENSEMBLES, as a contribution to the second phase ("Stream 2") of the project. The set-up of the new simulations, though basically similar to that used in the CMIP3 simulations for the IPCC AR4, has been improved by taking into account land-use changes. The simulations cover the recent historical period (1860-2000) and are extended over the the 21st century by two scenarios based on the A1B development path. The A1B scenario has been chosen as the baseline scenario for the ENSEMBLES stream 2 simulations because the strong increase in emissions is consistent with real emissions growth, and in order provide overlap with earlier climate modelling work. Besides the standard A1B SRES scenario, a new stabilisation scenario has been developed so as to limit the long-term radiative forcing to

  20. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  1. Future changes in precipitation of the baiu season under RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, the relationship between global warming and rainfall during the rainy season, which called the baiu in Japan, has been attracting attention in association with heavy rainfall in this period. In the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century, many studies show a delay in the northward march of the baiu front, and significant increase of daily precipitation amounts around western Japan during the late baiu season (e.g., Kusunoki et al. 2011, Kanada et al. 2012). The future climate experiment in these studies was performed under the IPCC SRES A1B scenarios for global warming conditions. In this study, we discuss the future changes in precipitation using calculated 60km-mesh model (MRI-AGCM3.2H) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). These dataset are calculated by setting the Yoshimura (YS) scheme mainly.Seasonal progression of future precipitation generally indicates the northward in RCP2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, around western Japan. In RCP6.0 scenario, precipitation intensity is weak compared to the other scenarios. RCP8.5 scenario is calculated by setting three different cumulus schemes (YS, Arakawa-Schubert (AS), and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes). RCP8.5 configured in YS scheme showed that the rainband associated with the baiu front is not clear. Moreover, peak is remarkable during late June. In AS scheme, the precipitation area stagnates around 30 N until August. And it in KF scheme shows gradual northward migration.This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

  2. Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2010-05-01

    Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes

  3. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration

  4. The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the trophic regimes in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenario analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazzari, P.; Mattia, G.; Solidoro, C.; Salon, S.; Crise, A.; Zavatarelli, M.; Oddo, P.; Vichi, M.

    2014-07-01

    The impacts of climate change and environmental management policies on the Mediterranean Sea were analyzed in multi-annual simulations of carbon cycling in a planktonic ecosystem model. The modeling system is based on a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model that is off-line and forced by medium-resolution global climate simulations and by estimates of continental and river inputs of freshwater and nutrients. The simulations span the periods 1990-2000 and 2090-2100, assuming the IPCC SRES A1B scenario of climatic change at the end of the century. The effects of three different options on land use, mediated through rivers, are also considered. All scenarios indicate that the increase in temperature fuels an increase in metabolic rates. The gross primary production increases approximately 5% over the present-day figures, but the changes in productivity rates are compensated by augmented community respiration rates, so the net community production is stable with respect to present-day figures. The 21st century simulations are characterized by a reduction in the system biomass and by an enhanced accumulation of semi-labile dissolved organic matter. The largest changes in organic carbon production occur close to rivers, where the influence of changes in future nutrient is higher.

  5. Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Do-Woo; Byun, Hi-Ryong

    2009-09-01

    This study investigates the effect of global warming on drought patterns over Asia at the end of the twenty-first century by a multi-model ensemble method based on daily precipitation data of 15 coupled climate models simulations under SRES A1B scenario, thereby assessing the consistency of responses among different models. The projected precipitation climatology was translated into the change in drought climatology using the effective drought index. The results of the models were consistent in that they project an increase in the mean and the standard deviation of precipitation over most of Asia, and the increase was considerably greater in higher latitude areas. Therefore, it is expected that in future, drought over most of Asia will occur less frequently with weaker intensity and shorter duration than those prevalent currently. However, two special regions were detected. One was the Asian monsoon regions (AMRs: South Asia and East Asia), which showed a greater increase in the standard deviation of precipitation than the mean precipitation, with an amplified seasonal precipitation cycle. As a result, part of the AMRs exhibited slight increases in drought properties such as frequency and intensity. The other region was West Asia. The region showed decreased mean precipitation, especially in its northern part (Syria and its vicinity), and more frequent droughts were projected for this region with enhanced drought intensity and lengthened drought duration. The worsening trends in drought patterns over both regions were more significant in extreme drought, the likelihood of which is relatively higher in summer in West Asia and from spring to summer in the AMRs.

  6. Risk factors for skeletal-related events (SREs) and factors affecting SRE-free survival for nonsmall cell lung cancer patients with bone metastases.

    PubMed

    Ulas, Arife; Bilici, Ahmet; Durnali, Ayse; Tokluoglu, Saadet; Akinci, Sema; Silay, Kamile; Oksuzoglu, Berna; Alkis, Necati

    2016-01-01

    Skeletal-related events (SREs) for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with bone metastasis lead to serious morbidity. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for SREs in NSCLC patients with bone metastasis and the factors influencing SRE-free survival and overall survival (OS). From 2000 to 2012, we evaluated retrospectively 835 NSCLC patients. Three hundred and thirty-five of them with bone metastasis were included in the study. SREs and the other prognostic factors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis for SRE-free survival and OS. SREs were detected in 244 patients (72.8 %). The most common SREs were the need for radiotherapy (43.2 %) and malignant hypercalcemia (17.6 %). The median time to first SRE was 3.5 months at the median follow-up of 17 months. A multivariate analysis showed that the presence of bone metastasis at diagnosis (p < 0.001), the number of bone metastasis (p = 0.001), baseline hypercalcemia (p = 0.004), and the presence of palliative radiotherapy (p = 0.04) were independent prognostic factors for SRE-free survival. A logistic regression analysis identified that the presence of bone metastasis at diagnosis [odds ratio (OR), 12.6], number of bone metastasis (OR, 3.05), and baseline hypercalcemia (OR, 0.33) were found to be predictive factors in the developing of SRE. The median OS time for patients with SRE was worse than that for patients without SRE (7 vs 12 months, respectively). For OS, male gender, ECOG performance status (PS), high lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, hypoalbuminemia, the presence of bone metastasis at diagnosis, the number of bone metastasis, the presence of SREs, the presence of bisphosphonate therapy, and palliative radiotherapy were independent prognostic indicators for OS by the multivariate analysis. Our results indicated that the frequency of SREs was high and the presence of bone metastasis at the time of diagnosis, baseline hypercalcemia, and multiple bone

  7. Changes of Meiyu system in the future under A1B scenario simulated by MIROC_Hires model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Jian; Huang, Danqing; Yang, Tao

    2016-02-01

    The Meiyu/Baiu/Changma is an important and unique persistent rainfall over East Asian during the northward progress of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from late spring to middle summer. In this study, changes of Meiyu system under global warming are examined by MIROC_Hires coupled model. The results reveal that the Meiyu system becomes weaker in the warmer future: the large precipitation center shifts to northern China; ratio of Meiyu rainfall to total summer precipitation ratio decreases. For the three-dimensional atmospheric circulation, the configuration of upper and lower jets benefits the heavy rainfall located over the northern China, associated with abundant water vapor transporting to northern China. The heterogeneous warming over land and sea may be a possible reason for the changes of Meiyu system. Larger thermal contrast is indicated between the Asian continent and the western Pacific during the Meiyu period, which may result in the enhanced southerly with abundant water vapor arriving at northern China. Therefore, rainfall over Meiyu region may be suspended.

  8. Forest land suitability in a Mediterranean area under climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Anaya-Romero, María; Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; De la Rosa, Diego

    2013-04-01

    As a consequence of the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 and air temperatures, global climate is changing leading to warmer and often drier conditions in many forest ecosystems. The Mediterranean area is particularly vulnerable to climate change as a result of a combination of environmental and human factors. An adequate forest management is associated to improvement of habitat suitability for soil and water quality, climate regulation and other important ecosystem services. The MicroLEIS decision support system (MicroLEIS DSS), through its 12 land evaluation models, is a useful tool to assist decision-makers with specific agro-ecological problems. Among the land evaluation models, Sierra was specifically designed to assess forestry land suitability for restoration of semi-natural habitats in marginal agricultural lands. This model selects up to 22 forest species adapted to Mediterranean conditions based on latitude, longitude, physiographic position, useful depth, texture, drainage, pH, summer and winter temperatures, and precipitation. In this research, Sierra model was applied in 35 benchmark sites representative of the natural regions (NUTS2) of a Mediterranean area (Andalusia, Southern Spain) in current and future climate scenarios for the A1B IPPC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and the periods 2040, 2070 and 2100. Data was obtained from SEISnet soil database, CDBm climate database and the future climate change variation values of the State Meteorological Agency. The results showed that Pinus Pinea, Pinus halepensis, Quercus Ilex and Quercus suber are the most suitable forest species in actual and future climate scenarios for the selected marginal lands, according to the tolerance ranges for standard soil and climate variables of the forest species. Various forest species showed a potential aptitude for reforestation in future climate scenarios (i.e. Quercus), whereas others such as Castanea Sativa will not be suitable in the study area in 2070

  9. Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusev, Ye. M.; Nasonova, O. N.; Dzhogan, L. Ya.; Kovalev, E. E.

    2015-06-01

    Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha) in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

  10. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  11. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  12. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  13. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-07-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  14. Incidence and predictors of Bone Metastases (BM) and Skeletal-Related Events (SREs) in Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC): A Swiss patient cohort

    PubMed Central

    Conen, Katrin; Hagmann, Raphael; Hess, Viviane; Zippelius, Alfred; Rothschild, Sacha I.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Bone metastases (BM) and skeletal-related events (SREs) are frequent complications in patients with lung cancer. Whereas in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) incidence, prognostic impact, and risk factors are well established, there is only little knowledge in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC). We retrospectively evaluated the incidence of BM, SRE and their treatment in a SCLC patient cohort treated at our hospital. We further assessed the role of Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH), a possible predictor of BM development in SCLC patients. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed patients with the diagnosis of SCLC for BM, SRE, overall treatment patterns, outcome and established prognostic parameters by record review. The prognostic role of LDH was tested using univariate longitudinal regression analysis. Results: We identified 92 consecutive patients with SCLC diagnosed between 2000 and 2010 at our institution. Overall, 36.9% presented with BM at first diagnosis. Median time to BM from first diagnosis was 14.8 months (range) in limited disease (LD) and 0.9 months (range) in extensive disease (ED). The overall incidence of SRE was 18.4%. Only 19.6% of patients with BM were initially treated with bisphosphonates. Conclusions: Elevated LDH, as well as age ≥75 years were independent predictors for BM development in SCLC patients. Although SREs are relevant complications in SCLC, early antiresorptive treatment of BM to reduce the risk of SREs was rare. LDH served as a predictive factor for BM development in our SCLC cohort and therefore should be taken into account in future randomized controlled trials. PMID:27877227

  15. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  16. Distribution of fluorescence decay times for 1-anilinonaphthalene-8-sulfonate in human oxyhemoglobin A1b solution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drazdou, A. S.; Sobchuk, A. N.; Syakhovich, V. E.; Bokut, O. S.; Kvasyuk, E. I.; Bushuk, B. A.; Bokut, S. B.

    2012-07-01

    We have studied complex formation between molecules of the fluorescent probe 1-anilinonaphthalene-8-sulfonate (1,8-ANS) and the major form (A1) and a minor form (Ab) of hemoglobin. The contribution of the longlived component f3 to the kinetic curves for fluorescence decay in HbA1b solutions is 0.021-0.036, which indicates a dramatic decrease (compared with HbA1) in the accessibility of the central cavity of HbA1b for binding 1,8-ANS. Disappearance of the long-lived component f3 in the fluorescence decay kinetics of 1,8-ANS in HbA1b solutions in the presence of inositol hexaphosphate (IHP) suggests that the regulatory region of HbA1b is completely inaccessible for interaction both with the negatively charged molecules of the probe and with natural regulators of the transport function for this form of the heme protein.

  17. Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model.

    PubMed

    Solecki, William D; Oliveri, Charles

    2004-08-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.

  18. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  19. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

  20. Flood monitoring and damage assessment in Thailand using multi-temporal HJ-1A/1B and MODIS images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, S. L.; Zhang, W. C.

    2017-02-01

    Flood is one of the most serious natural disasters in South Asia. How to monitor floods and assess damage caused is the most urgent problem for the government and disaster experts. With the advances of remote sensing, images acquired before the beginning of disaster to the very end or after the disaster from Earth-observing satellites benefit the decision making for reduction and protection of disaster dramatically. By using multi-temporal HJ-1A/1B and MODIS remote sensing data, applicability of different algorithms for flood monitoring and damage assessing was investigated in 2011 Thailand floods. Three different algorithms were adopted to monitor flood disaster events with water indices. Comparisons on the flood disaster monitoring and damage assessing by means of HJ-1A/1B and MODIS images suggested that multi-temporal HJ-1A/1B is much useful for the purpose, which demonstrated with the analysis of the thresholds estimated and problems in data post-processing. The variations of the inundated areas in the process of 2011 Thailand floods revealed were presented in this paper, and the damage caused by flooding was evaluated in three aspects, the population in the inundated region, the inundated information of different provinces and land use areas. Compared with MODIS, HJ-1A/1B images can provide more rapid and accurate flood extent and damage assessment for the disaster prevention, damage mitigation and disaster relief.

  1. Dysregulated YAP1/TAZ and TGF-β signaling mediate hepatocarcinogenesis in Mob1a/1b-deficient mice

    PubMed Central

    Nishio, Miki; Sugimachi, Keishi; Goto, Hiroki; Wang, Jia; Morikawa, Takumi; Miyachi, Yosuke; Takano, Yusuke; Hikasa, Hiroki; Itoh, Tohru; Suzuki, Satoshi O.; Kurihara, Hiroki; Aishima, Shinichi; Leask, Andrew; Sasaki, Takehiko; Nakano, Toru; Nishina, Hiroshi; Nishikawa, Yuji; Sekido, Yoshitaka; Nakao, Kazuwa; Shin-ya, Kazuo; Mimori, Koshi; Suzuki, Akira

    2016-01-01

    Mps One Binder Kinase Activator (MOB)1A/1B are core components of the Hippo pathway that coactivate large tumor suppressor homolog (LATS) kinases. Mob1a/1b double deficiency in mouse liver (LMob1DKO) results in hyperplasia of oval cells and immature cholangiocytes accompanied by inflammatory cell infiltration and fibrosis. More than half of mutant mice die within 3 wk of birth. All survivors eventually develop liver cancers, particularly combined hepatocellular and cholangiocarcinomas (cHC-CCs) and intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinomas (ICCs), and die by age 60 wk. Because this phenotype is the most severe among mutant mice lacking a Hippo signaling component, MOB1A/1B constitute the critical hub of Hippo signaling in mammalian liver. LMob1DKO liver cells show hyperproliferation, increased cell saturation density, hepatocyte dedifferentiation, enhanced epithelial–mesenchymal transition and cell migration, and elevated transforming growth factor beta(TGF-β)2/3 production. These changes are strongly dependent on Yes-Associated Protein-1 (Yap1) and partially dependent on PDZ-binding motif (Taz) and Tgfbr2, but independent of connective tissue growth factor (Ctgf). In human liver cancers, YAP1 activation is frequent in cHC-CCs and ICCs and correlates with SMAD family member 2 activation. Drug screening revealed that antiparasitic macrocyclic lactones inhibit YAP1 activation in vitro and in vivo. Targeting YAP1/TAZ with these drugs in combination with inhibition of the TGF-β pathway may be effective treatment for cHC-CCs and ICCs. PMID:26699479

  2. Transgenic (cyp19a1b-GFP) zebrafish embryos as a tool for assessing combined effects of oestrogenic chemicals.

    PubMed

    Petersen, Karina; Fetter, Eva; Kah, Olivier; Brion, François; Scholz, Stefan; Tollefsen, Knut Erik

    2013-08-15

    Endocrine disrupting chemicals and especially oestrogen receptor (ER) agonists have been extensively studied over the years due to their potential effects on sexual development and reproduction in vertebrates, notably fish. As ER agonists can exist as complex mixtures in the aquatic environment, evaluating the impact of combined exposure on oestrogenic effects has become increasingly important. Use of predictive models such as concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) has allowed assessment of combined estrogenic effects of complex multi-compound mixtures of ER agonists in various fish in vitro and in vivo experimental models. The present work makes use of a transgenic zebrafish strain, tg(cyp19a1b-GFP), which expresses the green fluorescent protein (GFP) under the control of the cyp19a1b (brain aromatase or aromatase B) gene to determine the oestrogenic potency of ER agonists alone or in mixtures. In these studies, tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) zebrafish embryos were exposed for four days (from one to five days post fertilization) to five different oestrogenic chemicals; 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), 17β-estradiol (E2), estrone (E1), bisphenol A (BPA) and 4-tert-octylphenol (OP), and three mixtures of up to four of these compounds. The mixture of BPA, OP and E2 was also tested with primary cultures of rainbow trout hepatocytes by analysing the ER-mediated induction of the oestrogenic biomarker vitellogenin in order to compare the performance of the two methods for assessing oestrogenic effects of complex mixtures. The three tested mixtures were predominantly acting in an additive manner on the expression of GFP. Additivity was indicated by the overlap of the 95% confidence interval of the concentration response curves for the observed data with the CA and IA prediction models, and model deviation ratios within a factor of two for a majority of the mixture concentrations. However, minor deviations determined as more than additive effects for the mixture of EE2, E1

  3. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  4. Sea of Scenarios: Reducing Uncertainties in Methane Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, E.; Baum, E.

    2010-12-01

    Climate-chemistry model experiments for the 21st century have relied almost exclusively on a small set of unexamined methane (and other) emission projections from economics-based models. Over the past decade, the US Environmental Protection Agency and the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provided baseline and mitigation methane scenarios. The SRES family of projections for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) encompassed multiple economic, demographic, and environmental assumptions quantified by several models. In contrast to both of these efforts, plans for IPCC5 include additional scenario development consistent with end-of-century forcings ranging from 2.6 to 8.5W/m2. The largely black-box nature of emission projections used in climate-chemistry experiments and policy analyses has received little attention despite the substantial influence these inputs can exert. This lack of transparency makes assessing the likelihood, or even the plausibility, of projected emissions difficult, contributes to uncertainties in climate simulations, and leaves policy discussions lacking the practical understanding needed to decide on mitigation strategies. We report on analysis of multiple baseline and mitigation methane projections, including our own new ones, to assess the plausibility of underlying assumptions and data. We propose that this analysis can reduce uncertainties in climate predictions by restricting, not enlarging, the suite of methane scenarios to those likely to occur.

  5. Heterozygous mutation of eEF1A1b resulted in spermatogenesis arrest and infertility in male tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Jinlin; Jiang, Dongneng; Tan, Dejie; Fan, Zheng; Wei, Yingying; Li, Minghui; Wang, Deshou

    2017-01-01

    Eukaryotic elongation factor 1 alpha (eEF1A) is an essential component of the translational apparatus. In the present study, eEF1A1b was isolated from the Nile tilapia. Real-time PCR and Western blot revealed that eEF1A1b was expressed highly in the testis from 90 dah (days after hatching) onwards. In situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry analyses showed that eEF1A1b was highly expressed in the spermatogonia of the testis. CRISPR/Cas9 mediated mutation of eEF1A1b resulted in spermatogenesis arrest and infertility in the F0 XY fish. Consistently, heterozygous mutation of eEF1A1b (eEF1A1b+/−) resulted in an absence of spermatocytes at 90 dah, very few spermatocytes, spermatids and spermatozoa at 180 dah, and decreased Cyp11b2 and serum 11-ketotestosterone level at both stages. Further examination of the fertilization capacity of the sperm indicated that the eEF1A1b+/− XY fish were infertile due to abnormal spermiogenesis. Transcriptomic analyses of the eEF1A1b+/− testis from 180 dah XY fish revealed that key elements involved in spermatogenesis, steroidogenesis and sperm motility were significantly down-regulated compared with the control XY. Transgenic overexpression of eEF1A1b rescued the spermatogenesis arrest phenotype of the eEF1A1b+/− testis. Taken together, our data suggested that eEF1A1b is crucial for spermatogenesis and male fertility in the Nile tilapia. PMID:28266557

  6. The histone demethylases Jhdm1a/1b enhance somatic cell reprogramming in a vitamin-C-dependent manner.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tao; Chen, Keshi; Zeng, Xiaoming; Yang, Jianguo; Wu, Yun; Shi, Xi; Qin, Baoming; Zeng, Lingwen; Esteban, Miguel Angel; Pan, Guangjin; Pei, Duanqing

    2011-12-02

    Reprogramming of somatic cells into induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) resets the epigenome to an embryonic-like state. Vitamin C enhances the reprogramming process, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. Here we show that the histone demethylases Jhdm1a/1b are key effectors of somatic cell reprogramming downstream of vitamin C. We first observed that vitamin C induces H3K36me2/3 demethylation in mouse embryonic fibroblasts in culture and during reprogramming. We then identified Jhdm1a/1b, two known vitamin-C-dependent H3K36 demethylases, as potent regulators of reprogramming through gain- and loss-of-function approaches. Furthermore, we found that Jhdm1b accelerates cell cycle progression and suppresses cell senescence during reprogramming by repressing the Ink4/Arf locus. Jhdm1b also cooperates with Oct4 to activate the microRNA cluster 302/367, an integral component of the pluripotency machinery. Our results therefore reveal a role for H3K36me2/3 in cell fate determination and establish a link between histone demethylases and vitamin-C-induced reprogramming.

  7. Screening Estrogenic Activities of Chemicals or Mixtures In Vivo Using Transgenic (cyp19a1b-GFP) Zebrafish Embryos

    PubMed Central

    Brion, François; Le Page, Yann; Piccini, Benjamin; Cardoso, Olivier; Tong, Sok-Keng; Chung, Bon-chu; Kah, Olivier

    2012-01-01

    The tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) transgenic zebrafish expresses GFP (green fluorescent protein) under the control of the cyp19a1b gene, encoding brain aromatase. This gene has two major characteristics: (i) it is only expressed in radial glial progenitors in the brain of fish and (ii) it is exquisitely sensitive to estrogens. Based on these properties, we demonstrate that natural or synthetic hormones (alone or in binary mixture), including androgens or progestagens, and industrial chemicals induce a concentration-dependent GFP expression in radial glial progenitors. As GFP expression can be quantified by in vivo imaging, this model presents a very powerful tool to screen and characterize compounds potentially acting as estrogen mimics either directly or after metabolization by the zebrafish embryo. This study also shows that radial glial cells that act as stem cells are direct targets for a large panel of endocrine disruptors, calling for more attention regarding the impact of environmental estrogens and/or certain pharmaceuticals on brain development. Altogether these data identify this in vivo bioassay as an interesting alternative to detect estrogen mimics in hazard and risk assessment perspective. PMID:22586461

  8. Screening estrogenic activities of chemicals or mixtures in vivo using transgenic (cyp19a1b-GFP) zebrafish embryos.

    PubMed

    Brion, François; Le Page, Yann; Piccini, Benjamin; Cardoso, Olivier; Tong, Sok-Keng; Chung, Bon-chu; Kah, Olivier

    2012-01-01

    The tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) transgenic zebrafish expresses GFP (green fluorescent protein) under the control of the cyp19a1b gene, encoding brain aromatase. This gene has two major characteristics: (i) it is only expressed in radial glial progenitors in the brain of fish and (ii) it is exquisitely sensitive to estrogens. Based on these properties, we demonstrate that natural or synthetic hormones (alone or in binary mixture), including androgens or progestagens, and industrial chemicals induce a concentration-dependent GFP expression in radial glial progenitors. As GFP expression can be quantified by in vivo imaging, this model presents a very powerful tool to screen and characterize compounds potentially acting as estrogen mimics either directly or after metabolization by the zebrafish embryo. This study also shows that radial glial cells that act as stem cells are direct targets for a large panel of endocrine disruptors, calling for more attention regarding the impact of environmental estrogens and/or certain pharmaceuticals on brain development. Altogether these data identify this in vivo bioassay as an interesting alternative to detect estrogen mimics in hazard and risk assessment perspective.

  9. The A1 and A1B proteins of heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoparticles modulate 5' splice site selection in vivo.

    PubMed Central

    Yang, X; Bani, M R; Lu, S J; Rowan, S; Ben-David, Y; Chabot, B

    1994-01-01

    Recent in vitro results suggest that the heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoparticle (hnRNP) A1 protein modulates alternative splicing by favoring distal 5' splice site (5'SS) selection and exon skipping. We used a mouse erythroleukemia (MEL) cell line (CB3C7) deficient in the expression of hnRNP A1 to test whether variations in hnRNP A1 and AlB protein levels affected alternative splicing in vivo. In contrast to A1-expressing MEL cell lines, CB3C7 cells preferentially selected the proximal 13S and 12S 5'SS on the adenovirus E1A pre-mRNA. Transiently expressing the A1 or A1B cDNA in CB3C7 cells shifted 5'SS selection toward the more distal 9S donor site. A1 protein synthesis was required for this effect since the expression of a mutated A1 cDNA did not affect 5'SS selection. These results demonstrate that in vivo variations in hnRNP A1 protein levels can influence 5'SS selection. Images PMID:8041722

  10. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #2 - Safety and Security Scenario

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-01

    Narcotics are traded in bulk with cocaine & ecstasy going west and heroin going east; The US land border is now sealed behind a physical fence...nationale, 2011 Abstract …….. With the change in Northern climate over the past decade, current policy and media discussions have focused on...characterize legislation and policy on the Arctic, with a view to developing scenarios for future planning. This report presents one of two

  11. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

  12. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  13. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  14. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  16. Haemocoel injection of PirA1B1 to Galleria mellonella larvae leads to disruption of the haemocyte immune functions.

    PubMed

    Wu, Gongqing; Yi, Yunhong

    2016-10-13

    The bacterium Photorhabdus luminescens produces a number of insecticidal proteins to kill its larval prey. In this study, we cloned the gene coding for a binary toxin PirA1B1 and purified the recombinant protein using affinity chromatography combined with desalination technology. Furthermore, the cytotoxicity of the recombinant protein against the haemocytes of Galleria mellonella larvae was investigated. We found that the protein had haemocoel insecticidal activity against G. mellonella with an LD50 of 131.5 ng/larva. Intrahaemocoelic injection of PirA1B1 into G. mellonella resulted in significant decreases in haemocyte number and phagocytic ability. In in vitro experiments, PirA1B1 inhibited the spreading behaviour of the haemocytes of G. mellonella larvae and even caused haemocyte degeneration. Fluorescence microscope analysis and visualization of haemocyte F-actin stained with phalloidin-FITC showed that the PirA1B1 toxin disrupted the organization of the haemocyte cytoskeleton. Our results demonstrated that the PirA1B1 toxin disarmed the insect cellular immune system.

  17. Haemocoel injection of PirA1B1 to Galleria mellonella larvae leads to disruption of the haemocyte immune functions

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Gongqing; Yi, Yunhong

    2016-01-01

    The bacterium Photorhabdus luminescens produces a number of insecticidal proteins to kill its larval prey. In this study, we cloned the gene coding for a binary toxin PirA1B1 and purified the recombinant protein using affinity chromatography combined with desalination technology. Furthermore, the cytotoxicity of the recombinant protein against the haemocytes of Galleria mellonella larvae was investigated. We found that the protein had haemocoel insecticidal activity against G. mellonella with an LD50 of 131.5 ng/larva. Intrahaemocoelic injection of PirA1B1 into G. mellonella resulted in significant decreases in haemocyte number and phagocytic ability. In in vitro experiments, PirA1B1 inhibited the spreading behaviour of the haemocytes of G. mellonella larvae and even caused haemocyte degeneration. Fluorescence microscope analysis and visualization of haemocyte F-actin stained with phalloidin-FITC showed that the PirA1B1 toxin disrupted the organization of the haemocyte cytoskeleton. Our results demonstrated that the PirA1B1 toxin disarmed the insect cellular immune system. PMID:27734915

  18. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    PubMed

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  19. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  20. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  1. Emission scenarios: Explaining differences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2017-01-01

    Carbon dioxide emission scenarios rely on a number of assumptions about how societies will develop in the future, creating uncertainty in projections. Now, research reveals the sensitivity of emission estimates to some of these assumptions.

  2. Beyond Pattern Scaling: Statistical Emulation and its Implications for ScenarioMIP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Challenor, P. G.; Williamson, D.

    2014-12-01

    One of the crucial aspects of climate policy in the near future is the design of mitigation strategies. However, we can only get information from state of the art climate models at a handful of mitigation scenarios (e.g. the SRES and RCP scenarios). In order to compare alternative strategies and their impacts using models, we need to consider the climate effects of the corresponding emission/concentration pathways for which we don't have climate model output. Currently this is mainly done by pattern-scaling - multiplying the mean pattern of climate change by the change in the mean of the variable (e.g. temperature or precipitation) over time. A generalised alternative to pattern scaling is statistical emulation. A statistical emulator is a more sophisticated way of interpolating climates between a limited number of model runs. Although widely used in science for the modelling of computer experiments, the use of statistical emulators in climate science has been limited and mainly used for perturbed physics ensembles. However emulators are perfectly well suited for use with forcing conditions instead of (or as well as) model parameters. Pattern scaling is a special (very simple) case of an emulator. We will show how by parameterising the forcing functions and building emulators we can predict the climate for any reasonable set of forcings (including overshoot scenarios and other 'odd' forcing pathways). We also set out how a ScenarioMIP type experiment would have to be configured to achieve this.

  3. Characterization of drCol 15a1b: a novel component of the stem cell niche in the zebrafish retina.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez-Nunez, Veronica; Nocco, Valentina; Budd, Aidan

    2010-08-01

    There is a clear need to develop novel tools to help improve our understanding of stem cell biology, and potentially also the utility of stem cells in regenerative medicine. We report the cloning, functional, and bioinformatic characterization of a novel stem cell marker in the zebrafish retina, drCol 15a1b. The expression pattern of drCol 15a1b is restricted to stem cell niches located in the central nervous system, whereas other collagen XVs are associated with muscle and endothelial tissues. Knocking down drCol 15a1b expression causes smaller eyes, ear defects, and brain edema. Microscopic analysis reveals enhanced proliferation in the morphant eye, with many mitotic nuclei located in the central retina, together with a delayed differentiation of the mature retinal cell types. Besides, several markers known to be expressed in the ciliary marginal zone display broader expression areas in morpholino-injected embryos, suggesting an anomalous diffusion of signaling effectors from the sonic hedgehog and notch pathways. These results indicate that drCol 15a1b is a novel stem cell marker in the central nervous system that has a key role in homing stem cells into specialized niches in the adult organism. Moreover, mutations in the hCol 18a1 gene are responsible for the Knobloch syndrome, which affects brain and retinal structures, suggesting that drCol 15a1b may function similarly to mammalian Col 18a1. Thus, our results shed new light on the signaling pathways that underlie the maintenance of stem cells in the adult organism while helping us to understand the role of extracellular matrix proteins in modulating the signals that determine stem cell differentiation, cell cycle exit and apoptosis.

  4. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    DOE PAGES

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; ...

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

  5. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  6. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person.

  7. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  8. Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

    2013-04-01

    The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

  9. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  10. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  11. Additive effects of levonorgestrel and ethinylestradiol on brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) in zebrafish specific in vitro and in vivo bioassays.

    PubMed

    Hinfray, N; Tebby, C; Garoche, C; Piccini, B; Bourgine, G; Aït-Aïssa, S; Kah, O; Pakdel, F; Brion, F

    2016-09-15

    Estrogens and progestins are widely used in combination in human medicine and both are present in aquatic environment. Despite the joint exposure of aquatic wildlife to estrogens and progestins, very little information is available on their combined effects. In the present study we investigated the effect of ethinylestradiol (EE2) and Levonorgestrel (LNG), alone and in mixtures, on the expression of the brain specific ER-regulated cyp19a1b gene. For that purpose, recently established zebrafish-derived tools were used: (i) an in vitro transient reporter gene assay in a human glial cell line (U251-MG) co-transfected with zebrafish estrogen receptors (zfERs) and the luciferase gene under the control of the zebrafish cyp19a1b gene promoter and (ii) an in vivo bioassay using a transgenic zebrafish expressing GFP under the control of the zebrafish cyp19a1b gene promoter (cyp19a1b-GFP). Concentration-response relationships for single chemicals were modeled and used to design the mixture experiments following a ray design. The results from mixture experiments were analyzed to predict joint effects according to concentration addition and statistical approaches were used to characterize the potential interactions between the components of the mixtures (synergism/antagonism). We confirmed that some progestins could elicit estrogenic effects in fish brain. In mixtures, EE2 and LNG exerted additive estrogenic effects both in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that some environmental progestin could exert effects that will add to those of environmental (xeno-)estrogens. Moreover, our zebrafish specific assays are valuable tools that could be used in risk assessment for both single chemicals and their mixtures.

  12. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  13. Global temperature change from the transport sectors: Historical development and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Berntsen, Terje; Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Myhre, Gunnar; Rypdal, Kristin

    2009-12-01

    Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that operate on very different timescales and cause both warming and cooling. We calculate contributions to the historical development in global mean temperature for the main transport sectors (road transport, aviation, shipping and rail) based on estimates of historical emissions and by applying knowledge about the various forcing mechanisms from detailed studies. We also calculate the development in future global mean temperature for four transport scenarios consistent with the IPCC SRES scenarios, one mitigation scenario and one sensitivity test scenario. There are large differences between the transport sectors in terms of sign and magnitude of temperature effects and with respect to the contributions from the long- and short-lived components. Since pre-industrial times, we calculate that transport in total has contributed 9% of total net man-made warming in the year 2000. The dominating contributor to warming is CO 2, followed by tropospheric O 3. By sector, road transport is the largest contributor; 11% of the warming in 2000 is due to this sector. Likewise, aviation has contributed 4% and rail ˜1%. Shipping, on the other hand, has caused a net cooling up to year 2000, with a contribution of -7%, due to the effects of SO 2 and NO x emissions. The total net contribution from the transport sectors to total man-made warming is ˜15% in 2050, and reaches 20% in 2100 in the A1 and B1 scenarios. For all scenarios and throughout the century, road transport is the dominating contributor to warming. Due to the anticipated reduction in sulphur content of fuels, the net effect of shipping changes from cooling to warming by the end of the century. Significant uncertainties are related to the estimates of historical and future net warming mainly due to cirrus, contrails and aerosol effects, as well as uncertainty in climate sensitivity.

  14. 5-HT1A/1B Receptors as Targets for Optimizing Pigmentary Responses in C57BL/6 Mouse Skin to Stress

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Hua-Li; Pang, Si-Lin; Liu, Qiong-Zhen; Wang, Qian; Cai, Min-Xuan; Shang, Jing

    2014-01-01

    Stress has been reported to induce alterations of skin pigmentary response. Acute stress is associated with increased turnover of serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine; 5-HT) whereas chronic stress causes a decrease. 5-HT receptors have been detected in pigment cells, indicating their role in skin pigmentation. To ascertain the precise role of 5-HT in stress-induced pigmentary responses, C57BL/6 mice were subjected to chronic restraint stress and chronic unpredictable mild stress (CRS and CUMS, two models of chronic stress) for 21 days, finally resulting in abnormal pigmentary responses. Subsequently, stressed mice were characterized by the absence of a black pigment in dorsal coat. The down-regulation of tyrosinase (TYR) and tyrosinase-related proteins (TRP1 and TRP2) expression in stressed skin was accompanied by reduced levels of 5-HT and decreased expression of 5-HT receptor (5-HTR) system. In both murine B16F10 melanoma cells and normal human melanocytes (NHMCs), 5-HT had a stimulatory effect on melanin production, dendricity and migration. When treated with 5-HT in cultured hair follicles (HFs), the increased expression of melanogenesis-related genes and the activation of 5-HT1A, 1B and 7 receptors also occurred. The serum obtained from stressed mice showed significantly decreased tyrosinase activity in NHMCs compared to that from nonstressed mice. The decrease in tyrosinase activity was further augmented in the presence of 5-HTR1A, 1B and 7 antagonists, WAY100635, SB216641 and SB269970. In vivo, stressed mice received 5-HT precursor 5-hydroxy-l-tryptophan (5-HTP), a member of the class of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (fluoxetine; FX) and 5-HTR1A/1B agonists (8-OH-DPAT/CP94253), finally contributing to the normalization of pigmentary responses. Taken together, these data strongly suggest that the serotoninergic system plays an important role in the regulation of stress-induced depigmentation, which can be mediated by 5-HT1A/1B receptors. 5-HT and 5-HTR1A

  15. Assessment of land degradation susceptibility by scenario analysis. A case study in Southern Tuscany, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maerker, Michael; Angeli, Luca; Bottai, Lorenzo; Innocenti, Lucia; Sicilliano, Giuseppina

    2010-05-01

    In the Mediterranean area land degradation phenomena are becoming more and more important due to future climate change and increasing climate variability as highlighted in recent global assessment projects such as the "Millennium Ecosystem Assessment" or "The Dialogue on water and Climate". Thus, there are consistent evidences that extreme events such as droughts and floods are more frequent than before. On the other hand the Mediterranean area is strongly influenced by human activities such as cultivations over hundreds of years. However, in the last decades the cultivation methods and techniques are subject to profound changes such as mechanization, use of fertilizer and pesticides, remodellation of entire hillslopes etc.. This particular situation leads to, and aggravates the existing stress on land resources. As a result, land degradation and soil erosion phenomena are leading to decreasing soil productivity or the loss of fertile top soil and related water quality and quantity issues. The aim of this paper is to assess land degradation sensitivity by scenario analysis. As a proxi for land degradation surface wash erosion processes such as rill-interill erosion processes are chosen. This present day processes are identified by aerial photo interpretation and subsequently modelled with a simple RUSLE approach on a monthly basis. In this study boundary conditions such as future precipitation were taken form the A2 future climate scenario published by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Moreover, current landuse was identified from aerial photographs and future land use scenarios were developed considering ecological and socio-economical issues for present day conditions of the test area. Subsequently, the different climate and landuse scenarios were analysed to study soil erosion susceptibility on the landscape scale. The study shows that even with a decline in precipitation volume till 2070, in some

  16. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  17. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  18. [Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

    2011-04-01

    Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

  19. Repository preclosure accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Yook, H.R.; Arbital, J.G.; Keeton, J.M.; Mosier, J.E.; Weaver, B.S.

    1984-09-01

    Waste-handling operations at a spent-fuel repository were investigated to identify operational accidents that could occur. The facility was subdivided, through systems engineering procedures, into individual operations that involve the waste and one specific component of the waste package, in one specific area of the handling facility. From this subdivision approximately 600 potential accidents involving waste package components were identified and then discussed. Supporting descriptive data included for each accident scenario are distance of drop, speed of collision, weight of package component, and weight of equipment involved. The energy of impact associated with each potential accident is calculated to provide a basis for comparison of the relative severities of all the accidents. The results and conclusions suggest approaches to accident consequence mitigation through waste package and facility design. 35 figures, 9 tables.

  20. Excitation of the \\tilde{a}\\,^3B_1 and \\tilde{A}\\,^1B_1 states of H2O by low-energy electron impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hargreaves, L.; Ralphs, K.; Serna, G.; Khakoo, M. A.; Winstead, C.; McKoy, V.

    2012-10-01

    We report measured and calculated differential cross-sections for inelastic scattering of low-energy electrons by water leading to excitation of the dissociative (1b1 → 4a1) 1, 3B1 states. The measurements were taken using conventional energy-loss spectroscopy at incident energies of 9, 10, 12, 15, and 20 eV for scattering angles from 10° to 130°. The calculations were carried out using the Schwinger multichannel method, with a Born-dipole correction applied in the singlet excitation channel. Integral excitation cross sections for the \\tilde{a}\\,^3B_1 and \\tilde{A}\\,^1B_1 states are also derived from the differential cross section results.

  1. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  2. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  3. Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species. PMID:28393865

  4. Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

    2010-12-01

    Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

  5. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  6. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  7. On the process of cellular division in Escherichia coli: isolation and characterization of penicillin-binding proteins 1a, 1b, and 3.

    PubMed Central

    Tamura, T; Suzuki, H; Nishimura, Y; Mizoguchi, J; Hirota, Y

    1980-01-01

    Multiple mutants of Escherichia coli defective in penicillin-binding proteins (PBPs) were constructed, and into these strains Co1E1 plasmids carrying the genes for PBP-1a, -1b, or -3 were introduced. From these plasmid-carrying strains, PBP-1a and -1b were purified by ampicillin-Sepharose affinity chromatography and PBP-3 by cephalexin-Sepharose affinity chromatography. Improved purification was achieved by differential elution with NH2OH. Purified PBP-1b synthesized murein when added to the membrane fraction of a PBP-1b-defective mutant, which by itself failed to support murein synthesis in vitro. The PBP-1b preparation was able to synthesize murein from the lipid intermediate extracted with chloroform/methanol but was unable to utilize UDP-linked precursors for murein synthesis. Murein synthesis was inhibited by vancomysin, ristocetin, moenomycin, and enduracidin, but not by beta-lactam antibiotics. The synthesized murein was shown to contain crosslinked muropeptides. Their crosslinking was abolished by action of beta-lactam antibiotics. The PBP-1a and -3 preparations showed substantially no activity for murein synthesis in the same reaction system. None of the three PBPs showed D-alanine carboxypeptidase activity with UDP-N-acetylmuramoyl-pentapeptide as substrate or endopeptidase activity with bis(disaccharide-peptide) as substrate. Images PMID:7001458

  8. Comparison of HCV NS3 protease and NS5B polymerase inhibitor activity in 1a, 1b and 2a replicons and 2a infectious virus.

    PubMed

    Paulson, Matthew S; Yang, Huiling; Shih, I-hung; Feng, Joy Y; Mabery, Eric M; Robinson, Margaret F; Zhong, Weidong; Delaney, William E

    2009-08-01

    The hepatitis C virus infection system represents an important new tool for drug discovery. In this study, we compared the in vitro antiviral efficacy of several NS3 and NS5B inhibitors in genotype 1a, 1b, and 2a replicons and in the 2a infectious virus system. The nucleoside inhibitor 2'-C-methyl adenosine showed similar efficacy in each system tested. Three non-nucleoside inhibitors had small differences in potency between genotype 1a and 1b. In contrast, there was a dramatic loss of potency for these non-nucleoside inhibitors in the genotype 2a replicon, 2a infectious virus, and 2a NS5B biochemical assays. The protease inhibitor BILN-2061 had similar efficacy against 1a and 1b replicons but was 61-109-fold less potent against the 2a replicon and virus, respectively. VX-950, a covalent protease inhibitor, had similar efficacy (<3-fold changes in EC(50)) regardless of genotype or subtype. Importantly, we observed a significant correlation (p<0.0001) in antiviral potency between the 2a replicon and 2a infectious virus for all classes of compounds tested.

  9. Franck-Condon factors perturbed by damped harmonic oscillators: Solvent enhanced X 1Ag ↔ A1B1u absorption and fluorescence spectra of perylene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chen-Wen; Yang, Ling; Zhu, Chaoyuan; Yu, Jian-Guo; Lin, Sheng-Hsien

    2014-08-01

    Damped harmonic oscillators are utilized to calculate Franck-Condon factors within displaced harmonic oscillator approximation. This is practically done by scaling unperturbed Hessian matrix that represents local modes of force constants for molecule in gaseous phase, and then by diagonalizing perturbed Hessian matrix it results in direct modification of Huang-Rhys factors which represent normal modes of solute molecule perturbed by solvent environment. Scaling parameters are empirically introduced for simulating absorption and fluorescence spectra of an isolated solute molecule in solution. The present method is especially useful for simulating vibronic spectra of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules in which hydrogen atom vibrations in solution can be scaled equally, namely the same scaling factor being applied to all hydrogen atoms in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The present method is demonstrated in simulating solvent enhanced X 1Ag ↔ A1B1u absorption and fluorescence spectra of perylene (medium-sized polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon) in benzene solution. It is found that one of six active normal modes v10 is actually responsible to the solvent enhancement of spectra observed in experiment. Simulations from all functionals (TD) B3LYP, (TD) B3LYP35, (TD) B3LYP50, and (TD) B3LYP100 draw the same conclusion. Hence, the present method is able to adequately reproduce experimental absorption and fluorescence spectra in both gas and solution phases.

  10. Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

  11. Atlantic Hurricanes in Future Scenarios and Associated Insurance Losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleppek, S.; Wüest, M.; Raible, C. C.; Kitoh, A.; Murakami, H.; Stocker, T. F.; Muccione, V.; Bresch, D. N.

    2009-04-01

    The hurricane season 2005 in the Atlantic was the most intense season since the first records with 28 tropical storms of which 15 reached hurricane character (Trenberth and Shea, 2006). Although this year is considered to be an outlier, a substantial increase of the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the tropical Atlantic over the last decades is documented (Sriver and Huber, 2006; Hoyos et al., 2006; Webster et al. 2005; Emanuel, 2005). The role of the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the tropical storm activity was discussed already in Emanuel (2005) and Hoyos et al. (2006). Future changes of TC activity is currently under debate (e. g. Bengston et al., 2007). We contribute to this by applying our TC detection and tracking method which was developed for ERA-40 data (Kleppek et al., 2008) to time-slice experiments of two models: The ECHAM5 atmospheric model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany) and the 20 km-mesh, high resolution AGCM (MRI, Tsukuba-city, Japan). From each model two climate simulations are available: For the ECHAM5 a control run for the period 1960-90 and a SRES A2 scenario run for the period 2070-2100 and for the Mesh-AGCM a 20 years run with present day conditions and a 20 years run with end-of-21-century A2 conditions. To estimate losses of the ECHAM5- and Mesh-model hurricanes on the US coast, we have developed probabilistic hurricane event sets which are used as input for catXos, the loss model of the Swiss Reinsurance Company. Preliminary results show higher wind speeds of the ECHAM5 scenario run hurricanes than in the control run, but the numbers of the hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 2 to 4 show no clear difference between the control and scenario run of ECHAM5. Even though the resolution of the simulation is rather high no hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 5 are detected. The total number of TCs decreases for the scenario run. This applies as much to the TCs over the Atlantic as over the US-coast. References: Bengston L., K

  12. Global source-receptor relationships for mercury under present and year 2050 anthropogenic emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbitt, E. S.; Holmes, C.; Jacob, D. J.; Streets, D. G.; Selin, N. E.; Sorensen, A.; Sunderland, E. M.

    2009-12-01

    We use the GEOS-Chem global 3-D model for mercury, including dynamic coupling of the atmosphere with ocean and land reservoirs, to quantify continental and regional source-receptor relationships for mercury under present and future (2050) conditions. The model includes several recent developments such as oxidation of Hg(0) by Br atoms and improved representation of land-atmosphere exchange. Different SRES scenarios are considered for 2050 anthropogenic emissions, thus providing a range of future projections. We use a tagged tracer simulation to track atmospheric emissions of mercury from specific source regions including their cycling with the surface ocean and short-lived land reservoirs. We identify net source and receptor regions, distinguishing regions for which domestic emissions reductions would be most effective from others which receive deposition predominantly from the global atmospheric pool of mercury. The projected future increase in the contribution of Hg(II) to global mercury emissions results in a shift toward more regional source-receptor relationships.

  13. Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice.

    PubMed

    Ziter, Carly; Robinson, Emily A; Newman, Jonathan A

    2012-09-01

    Experimental studies of the impact of climatic change are hampered by their inability to consider multiple climate change scenarios and indeed often consider no more than simple climate sensitivity such as a uniform increase in temperature. Modelling efforts offer the ability to consider a much wider range of realistic climate projections and are therefore useful, in particular, for estimating the sensitivity of impact predictions to differences in geographical location, and choice of climate change scenario and climate model projections. In this study, we used well-established degree-day models to predict the voltinism of 13 agronomically important pests in California, USA. We ran these models using the projections from three Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Global Circulation Models (AOCGCMs or GCMs), in conjunction with the SRES scenarios. We ran these for two locations representing northern and southern California. We did this for both the 2050s and 2090s. We used anova to partition the variation in the resulting voltinism among time period, climate change scenario, GCM and geographical location. For these 13 pest species, the choice of climate model explained an average of 42% of the total variation in voltinism, far more than did geographical location (33%), time period (17%) or scenario (1%). The remaining 7% of the variation was explained by various interactions, of which the location by GCM interaction was the strongest (5%). Regardless of these sources of uncertainty, a robust conclusion from our work is that all 13 pest species are likely to experience increases in the number of generations that they complete each year. Such increased voltinism is likely to have significant consequences for crop protection and production.

  14. Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change.

    PubMed

    Guo, Yanlong; Wei, Haiyan; Lu, Chunyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

  15. Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Yanlong; Lu, Chunyan; Gao, Bei

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants. PMID:27781160

  16. Assessment of land degradation susceptibility by scenario analysis: A case study in Southern Tuscany, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Märker, Michael; Angeli, Luca; Bottai, Lorenzo; Costantini, Roberto; Ferrari, Raffaella; Innocenti, Lucia; Siciliano, Giuseppina

    2008-01-01

    In the Mediterranean area land degradation phenomena are becoming more and more important due to future climate change and increasing climate variability, as highlighted in recent global assessment projects such as the "Millennium Ecosystem Assessment" or "The Dialogue on Water and Climate". Thus, there is consistent evidence that extreme events such as droughts and floods are more frequent than before. On the other hand the Mediterranean area is strongly influenced by human activities such as cultivation over hundreds of years. However, in the last decades the cultivation methods and techniques are subject to profound changes such as mechanization, use of fertilizers and pesticides, remodellation of entire hillslopes etc. This particular situation leads to, and aggravates the existing stress on land resources. As a result, land degradation and soil erosion phenomena are leading to decreasing soil productivity or the loss of fertile top soil and related water quality and quantity issues. The Centre for Soil Erosion Studies (CRES) in Grosseto, Tuscany recently started a study to identify and monitor changes of land-use in southern Tuscany, Italy. The aim of this study is to assess land degradation sensitivity by scenario analysis. As a proxi for land degradation surface wash erosion processes such as rill and interill erosion processes are chosen. These present day processes are identified by aerial photo interpretation and subsequently modelled with a simple RUSLE approach on a monthly basis. In this study boundary conditions such as future precipitation were taken from the A2 future climate scenario published by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Moreover, current land-use was identified from aerial photographs and future land-use scenarios were developed considering ecological and socio-economical issues for present day conditions of the test area. Subsequently, the different climate and land

  17. Multiple High Resolution Climate Scenarios over North America for Application to Water Resources (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2009-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models(RCMs)and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP reanalyses. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs that participated in the European PRUDENCE program (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and NCAR WRF. Candidate AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3, NCAR CCSM, the Canadian CGCM3 and the GFDL model. The resulting climate model runs form the basis for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts assessments over North America. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the simulations of the regional models. There also will be opportunities for double nesting over key regions through which additional modelers in the regional modeling community will be able to participate in NARCCAP. Additional key science issues are being investigated such as the importance of compatible physics in the nested and nesting models. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple runs are being developed by geophysical statisticians. In this overview talk, results from Phase II

  18. Role of spinal 5-HT5A, and 5-HT1A/1B/1D, receptors in neuropathic pain induced by spinal nerve ligation in rats.

    PubMed

    Avila-Rojas, Sabino Hazael; Velázquez-Lagunas, Isabel; Salinas-Abarca, Ana Belen; Barragán-Iglesias, Paulino; Pineda-Farias, Jorge Baruch; Granados-Soto, Vinicio

    2015-10-05

    Serotonin (5-HT) participates in pain modulation by interacting with different 5-HT receptors. The role of 5-HT5A receptor in neuropathic pain has not previously studied. The purpose of this study was to investigate: A) the role of 5-HT5A receptors in rats subjected to spinal nerve injury; B) the expression of 5-HT5A receptors in dorsal spinal cord and dorsal root ganglia (DRG). Neuropathic pain was induced by L5/L6 spinal nerve ligation. Tactile allodynia in neuropathic rats was assessed with von Frey filaments. Western blot methodology was used to determine 5-HT5A receptor protein expression. Intrathecal administration (on day 14th) of 5-HT (10-100 nmol) or 5-carboxamidotryptamine (5-CT, 0.03-0.3 nmol) reversed nerve injury-induced tactile allodynia. Intrathecal non-selective (methiothepin, 0.1-0.8 nmol) and selective (SB-699551, 1-10 nmol) 5-HT5A receptor antagonists reduced, by ~60% and ~25%, respectively, the antiallodynic effect of 5-HT (100 nmol) or 5-CT (0.3 nmol). Moreover, both selective 5-HT1A and 5-HT1B/1D receptor antagonists, WAY-100635 (0.3-1 nmol) and GR-127935 (0.3-1 nmol), respectively, partially diminished the antiallodynic effect of 5-HT or 5-CT by about 30%. Injection of antagonists, by themselves, did not affect allodynia. 5-HT5A receptors were expressed in the ipsilateral dorsal lumbar spinal cord and DRG and L5/L6 spinal nerve ligation did not modify 5-HT5A receptor protein expression in those sites. Results suggest that 5-HT5A receptors reduce pain processing in the spinal cord and that 5-HT and 5-CT reduce neuropathic pain through activation of 5-HT5A and 5-HT1A/1B/1D receptors. These receptors could be an important part of the descending pain inhibitory system.

  19. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  20. From molecule to behavior: Brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) characterization, expression analysis and its relation with social status and male agonistic behavior in a Neotropical cichlid fish.

    PubMed

    Ramallo, Martín R; Morandini, Leonel; Birba, Agustina; Somoza, Gustavo M; Pandolfi, Matías

    2017-03-01

    The enzyme aromatase, responsible for the conversion of C19 androgens to C18 estrogens, exists as two paralogue copies in teleost fish: Cyp19a1a mostly expressed in the gonads, referred as gonadal aromatase, and Cyp19a1b, mostly expressed in the brain, accordingly known as brain aromatase. The neural localization of Cyp19a1b is greatly contained within the social behavior network and mesolimbic reward system in fish, suggesting a strong role of estrogen synthesis in the regulation of social behavior. In this work we aimed to analyze the variation in cyp19a1b expression in brain and pituitary of males of a highly social cichlid, Cichlasoma dimerus (locally known as chanchita), and its relation with inter-individual variability in agonistic behavior in a communal social environment. We first characterized chanchita's cyp19a1b mRNA and deduced amino acid sequence, which showed a high degree of conservation when compared to other teleost brain aromatase sequences, and its tissue expression patterns. Within the brain, Cyp19a1b was solely detected at putative radial glial cells of the forebrain, close to the brain ventricles. We then studied the relative expression levels of cyp19a1b by Real Time PCR in the brain and pituitary of males of different social status, territorial vs. non-territorial, and its relationship with an index of agonistic behavior. We found that even though, brain aromatase expression did not differ between types of males, pituitary cyp19a1b expression levels positively correlated with the index of agonistic behavior. This suggests a novel role of the pituitary in the regulation of social behavior by local estrogen synthesis.

  1. Extreme Climate Event Trends: The Data Mining and Evaluation of the A1FI Scenario for 2000???2100

    SciTech Connect

    Erickson III, David J; Ganguly, Auroop R; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Branstetter, Marcia L; Oglesby, Robert; Hoffman, Forrest M; Buja, Lawrence

    2008-01-01

    The authors discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as Earth climate evolves from 2000-2100. Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will interpret these new A1F1 results within the context of the previous climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover and atmospheric CO2. Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events. We will report on the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming on IMR and assess the trend of extreme rain and temperature events in a warming environment.

  2. Do invasive riparian Tamarix alter hydrology of riparian areas of arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattarai, M. P.; Acharya, K.; Chen, L.

    2012-12-01

    Competitiveness of riparian invasive species, Tamarix, in arid and semi-arid riparian areas of the southwestern United States under climate change scenario (SRES A2) was investigated. Tamarix has been replacing native vegetation along the riparian corridors of these areas for the past several decades and is thought to alter water balance. Changes in depth to groundwater, soil moisture distribution and flood frequency are critical in survival and growth of a facultative phreatophyte such as Tamarix. In this study, a fully coupled 2d surface flow and 3d subsurface flow hydrologic model, HydroGeoSphere, was used to simulate surface-subsurface hydrology of the lower Virgin River basin (4500 sq. km), located in Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The hydrologic model results, depth to groundwater and soil saturation, were then applied to the species distribution model, Maxent, along with other bioclimatic parameters to asses future Tamarix distribution probability. Simulations were made for the climate scenarios of the end of 21st centry conditions. Depth to groundwater is found to be the most important predictor variable to the Maxent model. Future Tamarix distribution range is not uniform across the basin. It is likely to decrease at lower elevations and increase in some higher elevation areas.

  3. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  4. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk in Irish catchments to the range of IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bastola, Satish; Murphy, Conor; Sweeney, John

    2011-11-15

    In the face of increased flood risk responsible authorities have set out safety margins to incorporate climate change impacts in building robust flood infrastructure. Using the case study of four catchments in Ireland, this study subjects such design allowances to a sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty inherent in estimates of future flood risk. Uncertainty in flood quantiles is quantified using regionalised climate scenarios derived from a large number of GCMs (17), forced with three SRES emissions scenarios. In terms of hydrological response uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maximia series. Sensitivity results show that for low frequency events, the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greater than for more frequent events, with considerable implications for critical infrastructure. Peak flows for the five return periods assessed were found to be less sensitive to temperature and subsequently to potential evaporation (PET) than to rainfall. The average width of the uncertainty range for changes in flood magnitude is greater for low frequency events than for high frequency events. In all catchments there is a progressive increase in the peak flows associated with the 5, 25, 50 and 100-year return periods when moving from the 2020s to the 2080s.

  5. Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, T. R.

    2013-12-01

    In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide

  6. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  7. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  8. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  9. Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.

    PubMed

    Joyner, Timothy Andrew; Lukhnova, Larissa; Pazilov, Yerlan; Temiralyeva, Gulnara; Hugh-Jones, Martin E; Aikimbayev, Alim; Blackburn, Jason K

    2010-03-09

    Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2) and 8 km(2) and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2). Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2), approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2), and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2). Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B. anthracis.

  10. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  11. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

    PubMed

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  12. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  13. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable

  14. Forecasting the Effects of Land Use Scenarios on Farmland Birds Reveal a Potential Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable

  15. Haunted Quantum Entanglement: Two Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Douglas

    2010-04-01

    Two haunted quantum entanglement scenarios are proposed that are very close to the haunted measurement scenario in that: 1) the entity that is developing as a which-way marker is effectively restored to its state prior to its being fixed as a w-w marker, and 2) the entity for which the developing w-w marker provides information is restored to its state before it interacted with the entity which subsequent to the interaction begins developing as a w-w marker. In the hqe scenarios, the loss of developing w-w information through 1 relies on the loss of a developing entanglement. In scenario 1, the photon initially emitted in one of two micromaser cavities and developing into a w-w marker is effectively lost through the injection of classical microwave radiation into both of the microwave cavities after the atom initially emits the photon into one of the micromaser cavities, exits the cavity system, and before this atom reaches the 2 slit screen. The atom is restored in both of the two new scenarios to its original state before it emitted a photon by an rf coil situated at the exit of the micromaser cavity system. In scenario 2, the cavity system and everything from the atom source forward to the cavity system is enclosed in an evacuated box. After the atom that emits the photon exits the cavity system and before it reaches the 2 slit screen, the cavity system opens (and the photon escapes in the evacuated box) and then the box is opened and the photon escapes into the environment.

  16. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segnalini, M.; Bernabucci, U.; Vitali, A.; Nardone, A.; Lacetera, N.

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

  17. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  18. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  19. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  20. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S.; Brandenberger, Robert; Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L.

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  1. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  2. Brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) and gonadotropin releasing hormone (gnrh2 and gnrh3) expression during reproductive development and sex change in black sea bass (Centropristis striata).

    PubMed

    Breton, Timothy S; DiMaggio, Matthew A; Sower, Stacia A; Berlinsky, David L

    2015-03-01

    Teleost fish exhibit diverse reproductive strategies, and some species are capable of changing sex. The influence of many endocrine factors, such as gonadal steroids and neuropeptides, has been studied in relation to sex change, but comparatively less research has focused on gene expression changes within the brain in temperate grouper species with non-haremic social structures. The purpose of the present study was to investigate gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) and brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) gene expression patterns during reproductive development and sex change in protogynous (female to male) black sea bass (Centropristis striata). Partial cDNA fragments for cyp19a1b and eef1a (a reference gene) were identified, and included with known gnrh2 and gnrh3 sequences in real time quantitative PCR. Elevated cyp19a1b expression was evident in the olfactory bulbs, telencephalon, optic tectum, and hypothalamus/midbrain region during vitellogenic growth, which may indicate changes in the brain related to neurogenesis or sexual behavior. In contrast, gnrh2 and gnrh3 expression levels were largely similar among gonadal states, and all three genes exhibited stable expression during sex change. Although sex change in black sea bass is not associated with dramatic changes in GnRH or cyp19a1b gene expression among brain regions, these genes may mediate processes at other levels, such as within individual hypothalamic nuclei, or through changes in neuron size, that warrant further research.

  3. Human natural killer cell microRNA: differential expression of MIR181A1B1 and MIR181A2B2 genes encoding identical mature microRNAs.

    PubMed

    Presnell, S R; Al-Attar, A; Cichocki, F; Miller, J S; Lutz, C T

    2015-01-01

    Natural killer (NK) and T lymphocytes share many properties, yet only NK cells respond rapidly to infection and cancer without pre-activation. We found that few microRNAs (miRNAs) differed significantly between human NK and T cells. Among those miRNAs, miR-181a and miR-181b levels rose during NK cell differentiation. Prior studies indicate that miR-181a and miR-181b are critical for human NK cell development and are co-transcribed from genes on chromosome 1 (MIR181A1B1) and on chromosome 9 (MIR181A2B2). We mapped human MIR181A1B1 and MIR181A2B2 transcription start sites to 78.3 kb and 34.0 kb upstream of the mature miRNAs, generating predominantly unspliced transcripts of 80-127 kb and ~60 kb, respectively. Unlike mouse thymocytes, human T cells expressed both MIR181A1B1 and MIR181A2B2. We tested the hypothesis that NK cells differentially transcribe the two genes during development and in response to immune regulatory cytokines. During NK-cell differentiation, MIR181A2B2 expression rose markedly and exceeded that of MIR181A1B1. TGF-β treatment increased NK-cell MIR181A2B2 transcription, whereas IL-2, IL-15 and IL-12/IL-18 treatments upregulated MIR181A1B1. The MIR181A2B2 promoter was strongly transactivated by SMAD3 and SMAD4 transcription factors, suggesting that TGF-β signaling upregulates MIR181A2B2 expression, at least in part, through SMAD-dependent promoter activation.

  4. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  5. Change of soil carbon fluxes in European beech forest under different climate and management scenarios: an example from Serbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stojanović, Dejan; Orlović, Saša; Matović, Bratislav; Suckow, Felicitas; Lasch-Born, Petra; Galić, Zoran; Reyer, Christopher; Gutsch, Martin; Pekeč, Saša

    2013-04-01

    Soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature conditions and forest management determine the rate of soil carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. European beech is one of most important and most abundant tree species in Europe. Forest management strategy influences aboveground biomass as well as belowground biomass and soil organic and inorganic carbon. This study explores how different management strategies (i.e. thinning from above intensities with 10%, 20% and 30% removal of trees every ten years) under three different time periods 1971-2000, 2011-2040 and 2051-2080 of the IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario, influence total soil carbon stock in a beech stand in eastern Serbia. For the simulations, the process-based tree growth model 4C was used. At the beginning of the simulations, the total soil carbon stock was about 85 tC/ha. The most intensive management strategy appears to provide highest carbon fluxes into the soil and the highest total carbon stock values (between 160 and 180 tC/ha) at the end of the simulation periods. All management strategies under the climate of the period 2051-2080 showed the lowest values (about 160 tC/ha). We analyse the interrelationships between management caused changes in litter fluxes and climate (mainly temperature) caused losses of carbon from soil by respiration. In some cases different thinning intensities showed similar fluxes for the same time periods, whereas both climate scenario periods showed quite similar influence for the same management scenarios. The influence of different management strategies on the final total soil carbon stock will be shown.

  6. Change in statistics of drought in a land use scenario for Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilian, Markus; Chavez, Erik; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    The land use changes due to an intensified and expanding agricultural and industrial activity is affecting regional weather and climate in Brazil. We analyse the results of a land use change driven Weather and Research Forecasting Model (WRF) using classical drought indices and specific agricultural yield loss drought optimum indices. The objective is to assess changes in risk exposure driven by changes in weather patterns subject to different scenarios of land use changes in Brazil. The WRF model is driven by land use changes as well as the ECHAM5 climate model (with the A1B scenario) on a 60km and 30km grid. In order to determine the risk exposure of an important economic sector to changes in land use change we focus on maize as one of the principal crop grown in Brazil.

  7. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  8. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  9. Future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change in the United States--the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Griffith, Glenn; Acevedo, William; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan; Ryan, Christy; Sayler, Kristi L.; Sleeter, Rachel; Soulard, Christopher E.

    2012-01-01

    Detecting, quantifying, and projecting historical and future changes in land use and land cover (LULC) has emerged as a core research area for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Changes in LULC are important drivers of changes to biogeochemical cycles, the exchange of energy between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere, biodiversity, water quality, and climate change. To quantify the rates of recent historical LULC change, the USGS Land Cover Trends project recently completed a unique ecoregion-based assessment of late 20th century LULC change for the western United States. To characterize present LULC, the USGS and partners have created the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the years 1992, 2001, and 2006. Both Land Cover Trends and NLCD projects continue to evolve in an effort to better characterize historical and present LULC conditions and are the foundation of the data presented in this report. Projecting future changes in LULC requires an understanding of the rates and patterns of change, the major driving forces, and the socioeconomic and biophysical determinants and capacities of regions. The data presented in this report is the result of an effort by USGS scientists to downscale the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) to ecoregions of the conterminous United States as part of the USGS Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment. The USGS biological carbon assessment was mandated by Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. As part of the legislative mandate, the USGS is required to publish a methodology describing, in detail, the approach to be used for the assessment. The development of future LULC scenarios is described in chapter 3.2 and appendix A. Spatial modeling is described in chapter 3.3.2 and appendix B and in Sohl and others (2011). In this report, we briefly summarize the major components and methods used to downscale IPCC-SRES scenarios to ecoregions of the

  10. Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis.

    PubMed

    Vermaat, Jan E; Hellmann, Fritz A; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; van Minnen, Jelle; Alkemade, Rob; Billeter, Regula; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Boitani, Luigi; Cabeza, Mar; Feld, Christian K; Huntley, Brian; Paterson, James; WallisDeVries, Michiel F

    2017-04-01

    Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of 'Continental Europe'. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50-100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40-50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence

  11. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  12. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  13. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  14. Superclustering in the explosion scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinberg, David H.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Dekel, Avishai

    1989-01-01

    A simple toy model is used to study the spatial distribution of rich clusters in a generic type of explosion scenario. The model, parameterized by the distribution of shell radii and the filling factor, places spherical shells at random and identifies each 'knot' as a cluster. The resulting cluster correlation function is close to a power law extending to the diameter of the largest spheres. Richer clusters form at the intersections of bigger shells and so have stronger correlations. Typical shell radii and filling factors are required to produce the observed number density of clusters. Models with a power-law radius distribution also reproduce the richness distribution of clusters in the Abell catalog. Supercluster multiplicity functions, void probabilities, number counts, topology statistics, and velocity correlations confirm the presence of strong superclustering and quantify the non-Gaussian nature of the model.

  15. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  16. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  17. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  18. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

  19. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  20. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment.

    PubMed

    Kunkel, Kenneth E; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  1. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  2. The narcissistic scenarios of parenthood.

    PubMed

    Manzano, J; Palacio Espasa, F; Zilkha, N

    1999-06-01

    The authors begin by pointing out that Freud always considered parent-child relations in terms of the child's psychic development and took little account of the parents' experience of the relationship and its psychic effects on them. They recall Freud's distinction between the anaclitic and narcissistic modes of relationship and show how these are unconsciously embodied and enacted in varying proportions in the cases observed in their own clinical practice of therapeutic consultations with parents and young children. After a review of the relevant psychoanalytic literature, the authors present their concept of the narcissistic scenarios of parenthood, which include parental projection on to the child, parental counter-identification, a specific aim and a relational dynamic that is acted out. Depending on the individual situation, the effects may help to structure the developing psyche or, if the narcissistic element is excessive, they may be pathological. The authors consider the literature on the application of psychoanalysis to therapeutic interventions with parents and children, stressing the technical importance of establishing a therapeutic focus. These ideas are illustrated by a detailed case history showing the interaction between a mother and a 4-year-old girl and how it was modified by a short therapy. The differences between interpretation in this situation and in the classical psychoanalytic setting are explained, and the paper ends with some comments on the transmission of psychic elements from generation to generation.

  3. Agricultural Baseline (BL0) scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, Maggie R.; Hellwinckel, Chad M; Eaton, Laurence; Turhollow, Anthony; Brandt, Craig; Langholtz, Matthew H.

    2016-07-13

    Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the reference case for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios. The agricultural baseline runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used. Date the data set was last modified: 02/12/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: simulation was developed without offering a farmgate price to energy crops or residues (i.e., building on both the USDA 2015 baseline and the agricultural census data (USDA NASS 2014). Data generated are .txt output files by year, simulation identifier, county code (1-3109). Instruments used: POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B) supplied by the University of Tennessee APAC The quality assurance and quality control that have been applied: • Check for negative planted area, harvested area, production, yield and cost values. • Check if harvested area exceeds planted area for annuals. • Check FIPS codes.

  4. Mitochondrial Genomic Analysis of Late Onset Alzheimer’s Disease Reveals Protective Haplogroups H6A1A/H6A1B: The Cache County Study on Memory in Aging

    PubMed Central

    Ridge, Perry G.; Maxwell, Taylor J.; Corcoran, Christopher D.; Norton, Maria C.; Tschanz, JoAnn T.; O’Brien, Elizabeth; Kerber, Richard A.; Cawthon, Richard M.; Munger, Ronald G.; Kauwe, John S. K.

    2012-01-01

    Background Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia and AD risk clusters within families. Part of the familial aggregation of AD is accounted for by excess maternal vs. paternal inheritance, a pattern consistent with mitochondrial inheritance. The role of specific mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variants and haplogroups in AD risk is uncertain. Methodology/Principal Findings We determined the complete mitochondrial genome sequence of 1007 participants in the Cache County Study on Memory in Aging, a population-based prospective cohort study of dementia in northern Utah. AD diagnoses were made with a multi-stage protocol that included clinical examination and review by a panel of clinical experts. We used TreeScanning, a statistically robust approach based on haplotype networks, to analyze the mtDNA sequence data. Participants with major mitochondrial haplotypes H6A1A and H6A1B showed a reduced risk of AD (p = 0.017, corrected for multiple comparisons). The protective haplotypes were defined by three variants: m.3915G>A, m.4727A>G, and m.9380G>A. These three variants characterize two different major haplogroups. Together m.4727A>G and m.9380G>A define H6A1, and it has been suggested m.3915G>A defines H6A. Additional variants differentiate H6A1A and H6A1B; however, none of these variants had a significant relationship with AD case-control status. Conclusions/Significance Our findings provide evidence of a reduced risk of AD for individuals with mtDNA haplotypes H6A1A and H6A1B. These findings are the results of the largest study to date with complete mtDNA genome sequence data, yet the functional significance of the associated haplotypes remains unknown and replication in others studies is necessary. PMID:23028804

  5. Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2014-09-15

    Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p < 0.05). However, pessimistic land use scenario led to significant increases on an annual basis (turbidity: +11.6%, FC: +15.2%; p < 0.05). Additional simulations conducted for the late 21st century (2090) revealed that climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon.

  6. Utility of Oatp1a/1b-knockout and OATP1B1/3-humanized mice in the study of OATP-mediated pharmacokinetics and tissue distribution: case studies with pravastatin, atorvastatin, simvastatin, and carboxydichlorofluorescein.

    PubMed

    Higgins, J William; Bao, Jing Q; Ke, Alice B; Manro, Jason R; Fallon, John K; Smith, Philip C; Zamek-Gliszczynski, Maciej J

    2014-01-01

    Although organic anion transporting polypeptide (OATP)-mediated hepatic uptake is generally conserved between rodents and humans at a gross pharmacokinetic level, the presence of three major hepatic OATPs with broad overlap in substrate and inhibitor affinity, and absence of rodent-human orthologs preclude clinical translation of single-gene knockout/knockin findings. At present, changes in pharmacokinetics and tissue distribution of pravastatin, atorvastatin, simvastatin, and carboxydichlorofluorescein were studied in oatp1a/1b-knockout mice lacking the three major hepatic oatp isoforms, and in knockout mice with liver-specific knockin of human OATP1B1 or OATP1B3. Relative to wild-type controls, oatp1a/1b-knockout mice exhibited 1.6- to 19-fold increased intravenous and 2.1- to 115-fold increased oral drug exposure, due to 33%-75% decreased clearance, 14%-60% decreased volume of distribution, and ≤74-fold increased oral bioavailability, with the magnitude of change depending on the contribution of oatp1a/1b to pharmacokinetics. Hepatic drug distribution was 4.2- to 196-fold lower in oatp1a/1b-knockout mice; distributional attenuation was less notable in kidney, brain, cardiac, and skeletal muscle. Knockin of OATP1B1 or OATP1B3 partially restored control clearance, volume, and bioavailability values (24%-142% increase, ≤47% increase, and ≤77% decrease vs. knockout, respectively), such that knockin pharmacokinetic profiles were positioned between knockout and wild-type mice. Consistent with liver-specific humanization, only hepatic drug distribution was partially restored (1.3- to 6.5-fold increase vs. knockout). Exposure and liver distribution changes in OATP1B1-humanized versus knockout mice predicted the clinical impact of OATP1B1 on oral exposure and contribution to human hepatic uptake of statins within 1.7-fold, but only after correcting for human/humanized mouse liver relative protein expression factor (OATP1B1 = 2.2, OATP1B3 = 0.30).

  7. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  8. Multiscale analysis of rainfall over France in a climate scenario: Importance of seasonal variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Lovejoy, Shaun; Schertzer, Daniel; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia

    2010-05-01

    As a preliminary attempt to apply multifractal techniques to climate model simulations, Royer et al (2008) have analyzed the temporal scaling of daily rainfall time series over France simulated by the CNRM-CM3 coupled climate model in an IPCC scenario (SRES) A2 over the period 1860-2100. The scaling variability of the simulated daily rainfall, quantified with the "universal multifractal" formalism by means of a few relevant multifractal exponents characterizing the intermittency and multifractality of the field as determined by the Double Trace Moment (DTM), have shown a scaling range extending from one day to more than 16 days. Though opposite trends found in the evolution of the intermittency and multifractality exponents tend to have compensating effects on the evolution of rainfall extremes, the dominant effect of the increasing intermittency leads to expect an effective enhancement of rainfall extremes for the next hundred years. In this presentation, the analysis is extended by taking into consideration the seasonal effects. Comparison of the different periods shows that in winter there is rather little change in the two parameters, except in the southern part of France. In summer however, though the geographical patterns remain rather stable, a large and systematic evolution can be seen between the successive time spans, with an increase of multifractality and a decrease of intermittency over the 21st century. This new analysis shows that the overall trends found previously in analyzing the precipitation series over the whole year are mainly produced by the variations during the summer season. The very differentiated seasonal evolution in the response of precipitation to climate change, highligh that it is necessary to take into account a seasonal evolution of the multifractal parameters for characterizing the scaling properties of the rainfall fields. In particular the changes in the scaling properties of precipitation seem to be more prominent during

  9. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2017-03-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  10. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  11. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  12. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  13. Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir.

    PubMed

    Nunes, João Pedro; Jacinto, Rita; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2017-04-15

    The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes.

  14. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez, B.; Sánchez, O.; Monterroso, A.; Rosales, G.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning of the research work for the Fourth National Communication, to ensure that those criteria were fulfilled. Specifically, a set of climate change scenarios was generated using the outputs for temperature and precipitation of three General Circulation Models (GCMs): ECHAM5, HADGEM1 y GFDL CM2.0, for the horizons 2030 and 2050, and for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, B2 y B1. Those scenarios can be found in our web page in a low spatial resolution (2.5 º x 2.5º), and with high resolution (5’ x 5’). To assess the potential impacts on rainfed maize agriculture, the changes of the suitability of different regions in the country were evaluated, considering maize temperature and precipitation requirements at its different stages of development. Four categories of suitability (high, moderated, marginal, and no suitable) were characterized for current and future climatic conditions. Using the A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the three GCMs and the horizon 2050, results showed that around 67% of

  15. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  16. Climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation in Aragón (Spain).

    PubMed

    Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pino, M Rosa; Pórtoles, Javier; Roldán, Esther; Gaitán, Emma; Chinarro, David; Torres, Luis

    2013-10-01

    By applying a two-step statistical downscaling technique to four climate models under different future emission scenarios, we produced future projections of the daily precipitation and the maximum and minimum temperatures over the Spanish region of Aragón. The reliability of the downscaling technique was assessed by a verification process involving the comparison of the downscaled reanalysis data with the observed data--the results were very good for the temperature and acceptable for the precipitation. To determine the ability of the climate models to simulate the real climate, their simulations of the past (the 20C3M output) were downscaled and then compared with the observed climate. The results are quite robust for temperature and less conclusive for the precipitation. The downscaled future projections exhibit a significant increase during the entire 21st century of the maximum and minimum temperatures for all the considered IPCC future emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1), both for mid-century (increases relative to the 1971-2000 averages between 1.5°C and 2.5°C, depending on the scenario) and for the end of the century (for the maximum temperature of approximately 3.75°C, 3.3°C, and 2.1°C for A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios respectively, and for the minimum temperature of 3.1°C, 2.75°C, and 1.75°C). The precipitation does not follow such a clear tendency (and exhibits greater uncertainties), but all the scenarios suggest a moderate decrease in rainfall for the mid-century (2-4%) and for the end of the century (4.5-5.5%). Due to the clear spatial differences in climate characteristics, we divided the studied area into five sub-regions to analyse the different changes on these areas; we determined that the high mountains (Pyrenees, Mediterranean-Oceanic transitional climate) and the lands of the Ebro River Basin (Continental sub-Mediterranean climate) will probably be the most affected.

  17. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  18. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  19. Multimedia Scenario in a Primary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nulden, Urban; Ward, Bodil

    2002-01-01

    Multimedia as an educational technology tool is used throughout the educational system. In this article we present a research project where multimedia scenario was used to initiate a discussion about Internet use among students and teachers at a primary school. Multimedia scenario is the use of large screen multimedia to initiate and facilitate…

  20. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  1. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  2. Writing clinical scenarios for clinical science questions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Phil Em; Mucklow, John C

    2016-04-01

    Written knowledge assessments for physicians in training typically involve multiple-choice questions that use a clinical scenario in a single-best-answer format. The Royal College of Physicians Part 1 MRCP(UK) examination includes basic sciences themes that are challenging to assess through a clinical scenario. A realistic clinical setting based on everyday clinical practice and integral to the question is the clearest demonstration that the knowledge being assessed is clinically relevant. However, without special attention to detail, the scenario in a clinical science question can appear redundant or artificial. Reading unnecessary material frustrates candidates and threatens the reputation of the assessment. In this paper we discuss why a clinical scenario is important for basic science questions and offer advice on setting realistic and plausible clinical scenarios for such questions.

  3. ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

    PubMed Central

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Nishimori, Motoki; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo

    2012-01-01

    We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981–2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile–quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081–2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan. PMID:22291226

  4. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  5. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adloff, Fanny; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Jordà, Gabriel; Aznar, Roland; Déqué, Michel; Herrmann, Marine; Marcos, Marta; Dubois, Clotilde; Padorno, Elena; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique; Gomis, Damià

    2015-11-01

    The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air-sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961-2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001-2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air-sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070-2099 period compared to 1961-1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in

  6. The 5-HT1A/1B-receptor agonist eltoprazine increases both catecholamine release in the prefrontal cortex and dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens and decreases motivation for reward and "waiting" impulsivity, but increases "stopping" impulsivity.

    PubMed

    Korte, S Mechiel; Prins, Jolanda; Van den Bergh, Filip S; Oosting, Ronald S; Dupree, Rudy; Korte-Bouws, Gerdien A H; Westphal, Koen G C; Olivier, Berend; Denys, Damiaan A; Garland, Alexis; Güntürkün, Onur

    2017-01-05

    The 5-HT1A/1B-receptor agonist eltoprazine has a behavioral drug signature that resembles that of a variety of psychostimulant drugs, despite the differences in receptor binding profile. These psychostimulants are effective in treating impulsivity disorders, most likely because they increase norepinephrine (NE) and dopamine (DA) levels in the prefrontal cortex. Both amphetamine and methylphenidate, however, also increase dopamine levels in the nucleus accumbens (NAc), which has a significant role in motivation, pleasure, and reward. How eltoprazine affects monoamine release in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), and the NAc is unknown. It is also unknown whether eltoprazine affects different forms of impulsivity and brain reward mechanisms. Therefore, in the present study, we investigate the effects of eltoprazine in rats in the following sequence: 1) the activity of the monoaminergic systems using in vivo microdialysis, 2) motivation for reward measured using the intracranial self-stimulation (ICSS) procedure, and finally, 3) "waiting" impulsivity in the delay-aversion task, and the "stopping" impulsivity in the stop-signal task. The microdialysis studies clearly showed that eltoprazine increased DA and NE release in both the mPFC and OFC, but only increased DA concentration in the NAc. In contrast, eltoprazine decreased 5-HT release in the mPFC and NAc (undetectable in the OFC). Remarkably, eltoprazine decreased impulsive choice, but increased impulsive action. Furthermore, brain stimulation was less rewarding following eltoprazine treatment. These results further support the long-standing hypothesis that "waiting" and "stopping" impulsivity are regulated by distinct neural circuits, because 5-HT1A/1B-receptor activation decreases impulsive choice, but increases impulsive action.

  7. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  8. Vocational training: the case scenario workshop.

    PubMed

    Winter-Moore, P H

    2001-01-01

    This article describes the procedure for conducting a workshop for a vocational training group, using six clinical case scenarios harvested from the vocational training group's own experience. During the session, the main group (which includes trainers) breaks up into smaller groups to discuss the management of each case, then a spokesperson presents the management solutions back to the re-assembled larger group: further interaction and discussion then takes place. This article discusses six typical case scenarios from a recent workshop. The case scenario workshop is an exciting way to encourage discussion and interaction with all parties involved.

  9. Common Criteria Based Security Scenario Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohnishi, Atsushi

    Software is required to comply with the laws and standards of software security. However, stakeholders with less concern regarding security can neither describe the behaviour of the system with regard to security nor validate the system’s behaviour when the security function conflicts with usability. Scenarios or use-case specifications are common in requirements elicitation and are useful to analyze the usability of the system from a behavioural point of view. In this paper, the authors propose both (1) a scenario language based on a simple case grammar and (2) a method to verify a scenario with rules based on security evaluation criteria.

  10. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    , frequency of disasters in a country, urbanization, and the level of human development (capturing income, life expectancy, and education)—and the numbers of people killed or in need of assistance at the country level. We replicate results from past studies in showing that human development, perhaps surprisingly, shows a strong non-linear relationship with risk (with countries of intermediate levels of development showing the highest risk levels), although we extend these results through the controlling for other variables. Second, we downscale a suite of GCMs using national meteorological data, in order to generate ranges of estimates for changes in the frequency of each of the climate hazards. Supplementing this, we consider a climate scenario that sees a linear extrapolation of current trends in hazard frequency. Third, we construct scenarios for each of the socio-economic vulnerability drivers, consistent with IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios for population and income changes, and UN estimates for other demographic changes. Pulling the three pieces of analysis together, we are able to construct risk scenarios until 2060. Our results are interesting in several respects. They show socio-economic development fully compensating for climate change in the impact on risk levels, within the range of estimated changes suggested by the suite of climate models. Recognizing the limits of models to predicting changed frequency of extreme events, there is also reason to believe that the current trend in increased hazard frequency may continue; for this latter scenario, risk levels rise substantially. Finally, given the observed non-linear relationship between development and risk, we observe in the B1 scenario risk levels at their highest level between 2030 and 2040, and then declining thereafter, as Mozambique passes the point of medium development. In the A2 scenario, by contrast, risk levels rise through mid-century, as development proceeds more slowly.

  11. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  12. Development and Validation of Videotaped Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Noel, Nora E.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Johnson, James D.; Jackson, Lee A.; Goings, Christopher D.; Hagman, Brett T.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios. PMID:18252938

  13. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face.

  14. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  15. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  16. Sharing the burden of climate change stabilization: An energysector perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Wagner, Fabian; Sathaye, Jayant

    2006-05-01

    In this paper we discuss long-term least cost CO2stabilization scenarios based on the SRES AIM A1B scenario in the contextof an international burden-sharing regime. Starting from a stabilizationtarget, regional emission caps are formulated dynamically on the basis ofpast emissions. With these regional caps, the cost-optimal supply fuelmix in the energy sector in the four SRES world regions is calculated,and lower bounds on the volume of traded carbon are estimated. Theallocation scheme provides incentives for early mitigation action. Weestimate additional regional costs incurred by the allocation scheme, andassess the sensitivity of results to changes in the concentrationceiling, discount rates, and start date for burden sharing.

  17. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  18. Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

    2013-12-01

    In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario

  19. Analysis of climate variability under various scenarios for future urban growth in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Jeong, J.; Kim, Y.

    2011-12-01

    It is important to adjust urban growth data closer to reality in the regional climate model because urban changes give effects to physical properties such as albedo, moisture availability and roughness length in the atmosphere. Future urban growth, however, has not been considered widely in the prediction model for future climate change. In this study, we used the urban growth model called SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-shade) based on cellular automata (CA) technique to predict the future urban growth. The target area is Seoul Metropolitan area (SMA) where the urban area explosively has expanded the most in the Korean peninsula due to the continuous industrialization since 1970s. The SLEUTH model was calibrated to know the pattern of the urban growth in SMA with historical data for 35 years (1975-2000) provided from Water Management Information System (WAMIS) in Korea and then the future urban growth was projected out to 2050 assuming three different scenarios: (1) current trends scenario (Scenario 1; SC1), (2) regional policy and urban planning scenario (Scenario 2; SC2), (3) ecologically protection scenario (Scenario 3; SC3). As a result, the urban ratios by scenarios were increased 12.87, 11.17 and 6.26 percentages of the total area for 50 years respectively. These predictions of SLEUTH model used as the boundary condition data and the 6 hourly data of ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios generated by Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany used as the initial condition data in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We designed four different numerical experiments in accordance with the four scenarios for the urban growth (SC1, SC2, SC3 and Current condition) and carried out for 5 years (2046-2050). Overall, the increment of urban ratio under various urban growth scenarios in SMA caused the spatial distributions of temperature to change, the average temperature to increase and the average wind speed to decrease in the

  20. Projected changes of soil organic carbon in agricultural soils of southeast Germany in the 21th century under different carbon input scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiesmeier, Martin; Poeplau, Christopher; Sierra, Carlos; Maier, Harald; Hübner, Rico; Kühnel, Anna; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

    2016-04-01

    As climate change may have a distinct effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, projections of the future SOC development on larger spatial scales on the basis of soil carbon models are needed. In this study we simulated the SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria (southeast Germany) between 2000 and 2095 using the RothC model. At 51 sampling locations detailed model input data as C pools derived by soil fractionation, C input, clay content and climate variables were determined to run the model. Projections for each sampling location were performed on the basis of an average climate scenario (A1B) and three C input scenarios as a realistic range of possible crop yield developments: stagnation of the C input (1) increase by 20% (2) and decrease by 20% (3). The results showed a general decline of SOC stocks of 12% during the 21th century under C input scenario 1 and a decrease of 21% under scenario 3. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario 2 resulted in a noticeable decline of SOC stocks by 5%. Our study indicated that C inputs in agricultural soils of Bavaria have to increase by 30% until 2095 (given the A1B climate scenario) in order to maintain present SOC stocks. However, projected SOC changes largely depended on the soil unit and regional site characteristics. The modeling approach provides the basis for a further evaluation of changes of the land use management and enables a site-specific delineation of measures for a sustainable supply of soil organic matter under climate change.

  1. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  2. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  3. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  4. The climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble.

    PubMed

    Frame, D J; Aina, T; Christensen, C M; Faull, N E; Knight, S H E; Piani, C; Rosier, S M; Yamazaki, K; Yamazaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2009-03-13

    Perturbed physics experiments are among the most comprehensive ways to address uncertainty in climate change forecasts. In these experiments, parameters and parametrizations in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are perturbed across ranges of uncertainty, and results are compared with observations. In this paper, we describe the largest perturbed physics climate experiment conducted to date, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climate change experiment, in which the physics of the atmosphere and ocean are changed, and run in conjunction with a forcing ensemble designed to represent uncertainty in past and future forcings, under the A1B Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate change scenario.

  5. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  6. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-10-01

    This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  7. Scenario development in China's electricity sector

    SciTech Connect

    Steenhof, P.A.; Fulton, W.

    2007-07-15

    The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.

  8. Co-segregation of Freiberg's infraction with a familial translocation t(5;7)(p13.3;p22.2) ascertained by a child with cri du chat syndrome and brachydactyly type A1B.

    PubMed

    Myśliwiec, Marta; Panasiuk, Barbara; Dębiec-Rychter, Maria; Iwanowski, Piotr Sebastian; Łebkowska, Urszula; Nowakowska, Beata; Marcinkowska, Anna; Stankiewicz, Pawel; Midro, Alina T

    2015-02-01

    The identification of chromosomal breakpoints in association with human abnormal phenotypes can enable elucidation of gene function. We report on epiphyseal aseptic necrosis of the lesser head of the second metatarsal bone, known as Freiberg's infraction (FI), in two female carriers of the apparently balanced t(5;7)(p13.3;p22.2) ascertained by a 16-year-old girl with cri-du-chat syndrome and unusual skeletal features in association with an unbalanced translocation der(5) t(5;7)(p13.3;p22.2). Mapping of the chromosome breakpoints using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) narrowed them to the coding sequence of ADAMTS12 on chromosome 5p13.3 and SDK1 on 7p22.2. In addition, several skeletal abnormalities classified as brachydactyly type A1B (BDA1B) were present in the proband and in both carriers of t(5;7)(p13.3;p22.2), suggesting a potential role of ADAMTS12 in the development of the BDA1B observed in this family.

  9. Determination of loperamide in mdr1a/1b knock-out mouse brain tissue using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry and comparison with quantitative electrospray-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry analysis.

    PubMed

    Shin, Young G; Dong, Teresa; Chou, Bilin; Menghrajani, Kapil

    2011-11-01

    Recently matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (MALDI MS) imaging has been used to analyze small molecule pharmaceutical compounds directly on tissue sections to determine spatial distribution within target tissue and organs. The data presented to date usually indicate relative amounts of drug within the tissue. The determination of absolute amounts is still done using tissue homogenization followed by traditional liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). In this study, the quantitative determination of loperamide, an antidiarrheal agent and a P-glycoprotein substrate, in mdr1a/1b (-/-) mouse brain tissue sections using MALDI MS on a quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry is described. 5 mg/mL α-cyano-4-hydroxycinnamic acid in 50% acetonitrile with 0.1% trifluoroacetic acid and 0.5 μM reserpine was used as the MALDI matrix. The calibration curve constructed by the peak intensities of standard samples from MALDI MS was linear from 0.025 to 0.5 μM with r² = 0.9989. The accuracy of calibration curve standards was 78.3-105.9% and the percent deviation was less than 25%. Comparison between direct MALDI tissue analysis and conventional tissue analysis using homogenization followed by electrospray LC-MS/MS was also explored.

  10. Rapid detection of HCV genotyping 1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, 3b and 6a in a single reaction using two-melting temperature codes by a real-time PCR-based assay.

    PubMed

    Athar, Muhammad Ammar; Xu, Ye; Xie, Xiaoting; Xu, Zhenxing; Ahmad, Vakil; Hayder, Zulfiqar; Hussain, Syed Sajid; Liao, Yiqun; Li, Qingge

    2015-09-15

    The genotype of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an important indicator for antiviral therapeutic response. We hereby described development of a rapid HCV genotyping approach that enabled the identification of the six most common HCV subtypes of Asia, i.e., 1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, 3b, and 6a, in a single reaction. Using two dual-labeled, self-quenched probes that target the core region of the HCV genome, the exact subtype could be accurately identified by two-melting temperature codes determined from the two respective probes in a real-time PCR assay. Analytical sensitivity studies using armored RNA samples representing each of the six HCV subtypes showed that 5 copies/reaction of HCV RNA could be detected. The assay was evaluated using 244 HCV-positive serum samples and the results were compared with sequencing analysis. Of the 224 samples, subtype 3a (127, 52.3%) was the dominant, followed by 1b (51, 20.9%), 3b (47, 19.3%), 2a (8, 3.3%), 6a (4, 1.6%) and the least was subtype 1a (1, 0.4%). Moreover, 6 (2.5%) mixed infection samples were also detected. These results were fully concordant with sequencing analysis. We concluded that this real-time PCR-based assay could provide a rapid and reliable tool for routine HCV genotyping in most Asian countries.

  11. High Resolution Spectroscopy of A^1B1u ← X^1A_g 8^1_04^1_0 Band of Naphthalene Referenced to AN Optical Frequency Comb

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakashima, Kazuki; Nishiyama, Akiko; Misono, Masatoshi

    2016-06-01

    In the excited vibronic states of naphthalene, there exist various interesting interactions such as intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR), intersystem crossing (ISC), and internal conversion (IC). More than thirty yeas ago, Beck et al. showed that IVR became remarkable when the excess energy exceeded about 2000 cm-1^, ^a. In the present study, we observe Doppler-free two-photon absorption spectra of A^1B1u ← X^1A_g 8^1_04^1_0 band of naphthalene around 34281 cm-1. The excess energy is 2261 cm-1, which is just above the threshold of IVR. Thus we expect this band is suitable to analyze the dynamics in the excited vibronic states. In our experiment, the spectral resolution is about 100 kHz, and rovibronic lines are well-resolved. To decide the transition frequencies, frequency shifts, and spectral linewidths with high accuracy and precision, we employed the comb-referenced Doppler-free two-photon absorption spectroscopic system^b. We proceed to assign the rovibronic lines in ^qQ transition, and to determine molecular constants in the excited vibronic state. ^a S. M. Beck, J. B. Hopkins, D. E. Powers, and R. E. Smalley, J. Chem. Phys. 74, 43(1981). ^b A. Nishiyama, K. Nakashima, A. Matsuba, and M. Misono, J. Mol. Spectrosc. 318, 40 (2015).

  12. Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 2: future climate projection (2021 2050)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Im, Eun-Soon; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Kwon, Won-Tae; Giorgi, Filippo

    2008-02-01

    An analysis of simulated future surface climate change over the southern half of Korean Peninsula using a RegCM3-based high-resolution one-way double-nested system is presented. Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are discussed for the 30-year-period of 2021 2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971 2000 based on the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. Warming in the range of 1 4°C is found throughout the analysis region and in all seasons. The warming is maximum in the higher latitudes of the South Korean Peninsula and in the cold season. A large reduction in snow depth is projected in response to the increase of winter minimum temperature induced by the greenhouse warming. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variation and a substantial regional variability. In particular, we find a large increase of wintertime precipitation over Korea, especially in the upslope side of major mountain systems. Summer precipitation increases over the northern part of South Korea and decreases over the southern regions, indicating regional diversity. The precipitation change also shows marked intraseasonal variations throughout the monsoon season. The temperature change shows a positive trend throughout 2021 2050 while the precipitation change is characterized by pronounced interdecadal variations. The PDF of the daily temperature is shifted towards higher values and is somewhat narrower in the scenario run than the reference one. The number of frost days decreases markedly and the number of hot days increases. The regional distribution of heavy precipitation (over 80 mm/day) changes considerably, indicating changes in flood vulnerable regions. The climate change signal shows pronounced fine scale signal over Korea, indicating the need of high-resolution climate simulations

  13. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  14. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  15. Scenarios for the making of vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Holland, Nicholas D; Holland, Linda Z; Holland, Peter W H

    2015-04-23

    Over the past 200 years, almost every invertebrate phylum has been proposed as a starting point for evolving vertebrates. Most of these scenarios are outdated, but several are still seriously considered. The short-range transition from ancestral invertebrate chordates (similar to amphioxus and tunicates) to vertebrates is well accepted. However, longer-range transitions leading up to the invertebrate chordates themselves are more controversial. Opinion is divided between the annelid and the enteropneust scenarios, predicting, respectively, a complex or a simple ancestor for bilaterian animals. Deciding between these ideas will be facilitated by further comparative studies of multicellular animals, including enigmatic taxa such as xenacoelomorphs.

  16. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  17. Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gasemissions

    SciTech Connect

    Price, Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Sinton, Jonathan; Worrell, Ernst; Zhou, Nan; Sathaye, Jayant; Levine, Mark

    2006-07-24

    In 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a new set of baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The SRES team defined four narrative storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) describing the relationships between the forces driving GHG and aerosol emissions and their evolution during the 21st century. The SRES reports emissions for each of these storylines by type of GHG and by fuel type to 2100 globally and for four world regions (OECD countries as of 1990, countries undergoing economic reform, developing countries in Asia, rest of world). Specific assumptions about the quantification of scenario drivers, such as population and economic growth, technological change, resource availability, land-use changes, and local and regional environmental policies, are also provided. End-use sector-level results for buildings, industry, or transportation or information regarding adoption of particular technologies and policies are not provided in the SRES. The goal of this report is to provide more detailed information on the SRES scenarios at the end use level including historical time series data and a decomposition of energy consumption to understand the forecast implications in terms of end use efficiency to 2030. This report focuses on the A1 (A1B) and B2 marker scenarios since they represent distinctly contrasting futures. The A1 storyline describes a future of very rapid economic growth, low population growth, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The B2 storyline describes a world with an emphasis on economic, social, and environmental sustainability, especially at the local and regional levels. It is a world with moderate population growth

  18. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  19. Chemical Data Reporting Byproduct and Recycling Scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document addresses a series of 18 industry scenarios and questions related to EPA’s Chemical Data Reporting (CDR) rule. The primary goal of this document is to help the regulated community comply with the requirements of the CDR rule.

  20. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  1. Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jane; And Others

    This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and…

  2. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  3. Scenario Development for Information Operations (IO) Experimentation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-07-10

    valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 01 OCT 2003 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Scenario Development for...country called DYSLEXIA , whose government has been making threats to invade and appropriate a region of its neighbouring country, ABSTEMIA, which is

  4. Iterative Mechanism Solutions with Scenario and ADAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhoades, Daren

    2006-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of iterative solutions using Scenario for Motion (UG NX 2 Motion) to assist in designing the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The MSL will have very unique design requirements, and in order to meet these requirements the system must have the ability to design for static stability, simulate mechanism kinematics, simulate dynamic behaviour and be capable of reconfiguration, and iterations as designed. The legacy process used on the Mars Exploration rovers worked, but it was cumbersome using multiple tools, limited configuration control, with manual process and communication, and multiple steps. The aim is to develop a mechanism that would reduce turn around time, and make more reiterations possible, to improve the quality and quantity of data, and to enhance configuration control. Currently for NX Scenario for Motion uses are in the articulation studies, the simulations of traverse motions,and subsystem simulations. The design of the Rover landing model requires accurate results, flexible elements, such as beams, and the use of the full ADAMS solver has been used. In order to achieve this, when required, there has been a direct translation from Scenario to ADAMS, with additional data in ascii format. The process that has been designed to move from Scenario to ADAMS is reviewed.

  5. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  6. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  7. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-01

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  8. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  9. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  10. Interactive, multiobjective Bayesian optimization of tokamak scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urban, Jakub; Artaud, Jean-François

    2016-10-01

    Bayesian optimization is applied to tokamak scenario optimizations. The key advantages are 1) a reduced number of objective function evaluations, 2) no need for derivatives, and 3) the possibility to include a prior knowledge. This is of a great value for optimizing tokamak scenarios, where several (competing) objectives with often unknown magnitudes exist and the number of parameters is large (>10). The first two properties imply that Bayesian optimization is well suited for heavy, complex objective functions. Reusing previous iterations as priors for next optimization steps effectively enables interactive, multiobjective optimizations, regardless of whether a human decision maker is included or not. We show that these features make Bayesian optimization an outstanding tool for optimizing tokamak scenarios. Objective functions and constraints, targeting, e.g., fusion gain, flux consumption, coils currents limits or q-profile, can be assembled interactively. The optimized parameter vector may include actuators like plasma current or heating waveforms. We demonstrate the capabilities on optimizing ITER and DEMO-like scenarios, simulated by the METIS code.

  11. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  12. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  13. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  14. 5-HT1A/1B, 5-HT6, and 5-HT7 serotonergic receptors recruitment in tonic-clonic seizure-induced antinociception: role of dorsal raphe nucleus.

    PubMed

    Freitas, Renato Leonardo; Ferreira, Célio Marcos dos Reis; Urbina, Maria Angélica Castiblanco; Mariño, Andrés Uribe; Carvalho, Andressa Daiane; Butera, Giuseppe; de Oliveira, Ana Maria; Coimbra, Norberto Cysne

    2009-05-01

    Pharmacological studies have been focused on the involvement of different neural pathways in the organization of antinociception that follows tonic-clonic seizures, including 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)-, norepinephrine-, acetylcholine- and endogenous opioid peptide-mediated mechanisms, giving rise to more in-depth comprehension of this interesting post-ictal antinociceptive phenomenon. The present work investigated the involvement of 5-HT(1A/1B), 5-HT(6), and 5-HT(7) serotonergic receptors through peripheral pretreatment with methiothepin at doses of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 mg/kg in the organization of the post-ictal antinociception elicited by pharmacologically (with pentylenetetrazole at 64 mg/kg)-induced tonic-clonic seizures. Methiothepin at 1.0 mg/kg blocked the post-ictal antinociception recorded after the end of seizures, whereas doses of 2.0 and 3.0 mg/kg potentiated the post-ictal antinociception. The nociceptive thresholds were kept higher than those of the control group. However, when the same 5-hydroxytryptamine receptors antagonist was microinjected (at 1.0, 3.0 and 5.0 microg/0.2 microL) in the dorsal raphe nucleus, a mesencephalic structure rich in serotonergic neurons and 5-HT receptors, the post-ictal hypo-analgesia was consistently antagonized. The present findings suggest a dual effect of methiothepin, characterized by a disinhibitory effect on the post-ictal antinociception when peripherally administered (possibly due to an antagonism of pre-synaptic 5-HT(1A) serotonergic autoreceptors in the pain endogenous inhibitory system) and an inhibitory effect (possibly due to a DRN post-synaptic 5-HT(1B), 5-HT(6), and 5-HT(7) serotonergic receptors blockade) when centrally administered. The present data also suggest that serotonin-mediated mechanisms of the dorsal raphe nucleus exert a key-role in the modulation of the post-ictal antinociception.

  15. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  16. Generating moment matching scenarios using optimization techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, Dávid

    2013-05-16

    An optimization based method is proposed to generate moment matching scenarios for numerical integration and its use in stochastic programming. The main advantage of the method is its flexibility: it can generate scenarios matching any prescribed set of moments of the underlying distribution rather than matching all moments up to a certain order, and the distribution can be defined over an arbitrary set. This allows for a reduction in the number of scenarios and allows the scenarios to be better tailored to the problem at hand. The method is based on a semi-infinite linear programming formulation of the problem that is shown to be solvable with polynomial iteration complexity. A practical column generation method is implemented. The column generation subproblems are polynomial optimization problems; however, they need not be solved to optimality. It is found that the columns in the column generation approach can be efficiently generated by random sampling. The number of scenarios generated matches a lower bound of Tchakaloff's. The rate of convergence of the approximation error is established for continuous integrands, and an improved bound is given for smooth integrands. Extensive numerical experiments are presented in which variants of the proposed method are compared to Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods on both numerical integration problems and stochastic optimization problems. The benefits of being able to match any prescribed set of moments, rather than all moments up to a certain order, is also demonstrated using optimization problems with 100-dimensional random vectors. Here, empirical results show that the proposed approach outperforms Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo based approaches on the tested problems.

  17. Generating moment matching scenarios using optimization techniques

    DOE PAGES

    Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, Dávid

    2013-05-16

    An optimization based method is proposed to generate moment matching scenarios for numerical integration and its use in stochastic programming. The main advantage of the method is its flexibility: it can generate scenarios matching any prescribed set of moments of the underlying distribution rather than matching all moments up to a certain order, and the distribution can be defined over an arbitrary set. This allows for a reduction in the number of scenarios and allows the scenarios to be better tailored to the problem at hand. The method is based on a semi-infinite linear programming formulation of the problem thatmore » is shown to be solvable with polynomial iteration complexity. A practical column generation method is implemented. The column generation subproblems are polynomial optimization problems; however, they need not be solved to optimality. It is found that the columns in the column generation approach can be efficiently generated by random sampling. The number of scenarios generated matches a lower bound of Tchakaloff's. The rate of convergence of the approximation error is established for continuous integrands, and an improved bound is given for smooth integrands. Extensive numerical experiments are presented in which variants of the proposed method are compared to Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods on both numerical integration problems and stochastic optimization problems. The benefits of being able to match any prescribed set of moments, rather than all moments up to a certain order, is also demonstrated using optimization problems with 100-dimensional random vectors. Here, empirical results show that the proposed approach outperforms Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo based approaches on the tested problems.« less

  18. Global climate simulations with the A1F1 scenario for 2000-2100: Meltwater, temperature and river flow impacts in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, D. J.; Branstetter, M. L.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Ganguly, A. R.; Hoffman, F. M.; King, A. W.; Buja, L.; Panwar, T. S.

    2008-05-01

    Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the SRES A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. We find temperature increases of 3-9oC over Northern India by the end of this century. We will discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as the climate evolves from 2000-2100. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will compare our new insights with the existing literature. Climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover have indicated increased cloud cover and precipitation, resulting in decreased incident radiation and higher latent heat fluxes, in India during June, July and August by 2050 (Feddema et al., 2005). Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events (Krishna Kumar et al., 2006), studied the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming (Kripalini et al., 2003) on IMR, as well as demonstrated an increasing trend of extreme rain events in a warming environment (Goswami et al., 2006). In addition, the vulnerability of the Indian agriculture sector to climate change was analyzed and mapped at district-levels by combining with multiple global stressors (O'Brien et al., 2004). [[References::: (1) Feddema, J.J., Oleson, K.W., Bonan, G.B., Mearns, L.O., Buja, L.E., Meehl, G.A., and W.M. Washington (2005): The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates, Science, 310 (5754): 1674-1678, 9 December

  19. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  20. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  1. Research on Digitized Scenario for Tactical Internet Simulative Training

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Jian-Jun; Tian, Hua; Gan, Zhi-Chun

    The scenario of Tactical Internet simulative training can't be realized directly through the scenario systems and methods in existence. For solving this problem, firstly this paper introduced the new concept called digitized scenario, which can describe the meaning of scenario more exactly than the old simulation scenario. Secondly, this paper constructed the framework of digitized scenario, and it settled such issues as composition of digitized scenario system, scenario generating flow and data architecture. Thirdly, this paper built up the general data model for script situation, and it settled the problem of situation setting. Finally, this paper proposed the method of describing scenario files based on eXtensible Markup Language (XML), and it settled such problems as generation, verification and distribution of scenario files. The paper's work has been applied in the Tactical Internet simulative training system, and it also has good directive value to the developing of other communication network simulative training system.

  2. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  3. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  4. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  5. Thermodynamical interpretation of gravity in braneworld scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sheykhi, Ahmad

    2009-05-15

    We study the thermodynamical properties of the apparent horizon in the various braneworld scenarios. First, we show that the Friedmann equations can be written directly in the form of the first law of thermodynamics, dE = T{sub h}dS{sub h}+WdV, at apparent horizon on the brane, regardless of whether there is the intrinsic curvature term on the brane or a Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk. This procedure leads to extract an entropy expression in terms of horizon geometry associated with the apparent horizon. Then, we examine the time evolution of the total entropy, including the derived entropy of the apparent horizon and the entropy of the matter fields inside the apparent horizon. We find that the derived entropy of the apparent horizon on the brane satisfies the generalized second law of thermodynamics in braneworld scenarios. These results further support the idea that gravitation on a macroscopic scale is a manifestation of thermodynamics.

  6. Effective scenario of loop quantum cosmology.

    PubMed

    Ding, You; Ma, Yongge; Yang, Jinsong

    2009-02-06

    Semiclassical states in isotropic loop quantum cosmology are employed to show that the improved dynamics has the correct classical limit. The effective Hamiltonian for the quantum cosmological model with a massless scalar field is thus obtained, which incorporates also the next to leading order quantum corrections. The possibility that the higher order correction terms may lead to significant departure from the leading order effective scenario is revealed. If the semiclassicality of the model is maintained in the large scale limit, there are great possibilities for a k=0 Friedmann expanding universe to undergo a collapse in the future due to the quantum gravity effect. Thus the quantum bounce and collapse may contribute a cyclic universe in the new scenario.

  7. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  8. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  9. Moving beyond ice loss scenarios for Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Little, C. M.; Oppenheimer, M.; Urban, N.

    2010-12-01

    Scenario-based projections of individual components of sea level change are difficult to reconcile with probability distributions for sea level at the global and/or local scale. It is also difficult to assess the origin of key subjective decisions in the construction of these scenarios. An example is the historical distinction between the sensitivity of the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheets to climatic forcing. Observations show that this distinction may not have a well-defined physical basis at smaller scales. Recent “kinematic” approaches impose increases in ice discharge at the scale of individual outlet glaciers, yet the criteria for inclusion in these scenarios are unclear and differ between studies. Projections of the response of sub-regions of ice sheets to climate forcing should be informed by key physical characteristics, which may include ocean and/or atmospheric boundary conditions, bedrock and embayment morphology, and the stress regime of the grounded ice. Here, we assess: 1) the volume of Antarctic ice that is included in ice loss scenarios under different plausible sets of assumptions, and 2) the impact of these assumptions on the Antarctic contribution to sea level change. In the short term, this approach may raise or lower upper bounds proposed by earlier studies, depending on the criteria and rates employed. Perhaps more importantly, it is a step towards a fully probabilistic methodology, informing the requirements for models that may be used in probabilistic projections. Updating is possible: key sources of uncertainty may be revisited as more is learned about future climate forcing and rate-limiting processes in ice sheets.

  10. CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

  11. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes. PMID:27733963

  12. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  13. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-04-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon - a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  14. Alternative World Scenarios for Strategic Planning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-01-20

    budgetary investments in social and welfare programs than in programs for defense or for foreign economic and military aid. For the most part, U.S. and other...World. This scenario describes a productive economic world where U.S. political leadership favors social and welfare investments over those of...directed toward internal economic and social development programs which began in the late 1980s. Although its international trade and economic investment

  15. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; ...

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  16. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.

  17. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  18. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  19. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  20. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  1. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  2. Automated Scenario Generation and Interaction Techniques

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    LEVEIt2 RADC-TR4. 1 - 1 1 Phwl Technical Report Jun. 1981 4 ": AUTOMATED SCENARIO GENERATION AND INTERACTION TECHNIQUES Martin Marietto Aerospace...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Date Rnterod) TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 2.0 OBJECTIVES 2 3.0 APPROACH 2 4.0 INTERVIEW RESULTS 3 5.0...method 4> are: ( 1 ) the ability to analyze a player’s response to a given situation at the time that the situation arises; (2) to allow each player to

  3. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, S.S.

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  4. Braneworld Scenarios from Deformed Defect Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinaglia, M.; Bernardini, A. E.; da Rocha, Roldão

    2016-10-01

    Novel braneworld scenarios supported by warp factors driven by a single extra dimension are obtained from deformed one-dimensional lump-like solutions known a priori. Through a novel ansatz, the internal energy structure, the braneworld warp factor, and the quantum mechanical analogue problem, as well as the associated zero mode solutions, are straightforwardly derived by means of an analytical procedure. The results allow one to identify thick brane solutions that support internal structures and that can hold the (3+1)-dimensional gravity.

  5. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  6. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  7. Sociotechnical scenarios for the Austrian energy system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ornetzeder, Michael; Rohracher, Harald; Wächter, Petra

    2012-10-01

    Reducing greenhouse gases by 80%, as demanded by the IPCC, is one of the great long-term challenges facing our societies today and will doubtless require transformative changes to current energy regimes. Large-scale system transitions such as the one envisaged for the global energy system in the next 30-40 years can only be realized through complex processes of change involving global, regional, national, and local levels. In this paper we use sociotechnical scenario analysis to contribute ideas for the transformative change of the current Austrian energy system over the long term and to identify some of the particular policy measures, as well as structural changes and broader shifts in perspective, that would be necessary to deal with such challenges. There is less emphasis on the technical issues involved than on the socio-economic and governance requirements such a shift would demand. We also explain our experiences with the sociotechnical scenario process and its outcomes. In particular, we identify examples of some critical issues and opportunities within one of the identified key action fields and discuss their various implications for energy policy and everyday practices.

  8. Haunted Quantum Entanglement: A New Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Douglas

    2010-10-01

    A haunted quantum entanglement scenario is proposed that is very close to Greenberger and YaSin's haunted measurement in that: 1) the entity that is developing as a which-way marker is effectively restored to its state prior to its developing as a which-way marker, and 2) the entity for which the developing which-way marker provides information enters the state it would have had if the development of the which-way marker had never begun. In the hqe scenario, the loss of developing which-way information through 1 relies on the loss of a developing entanglement. The photon initially emitted in one of two micromaser cavities and developing into a which-way marker is effectively lost through the injection of classical microwave radiation into both of the microwave cavities: 1) after the atom initially emits the photon into one of the micromaser cavities and exits the cavity system, and 2) before this atom reaches the 2 slit screen. The atom enters the state it would have had if the atom had never emitted the photon into one of the micromaser cavities because of the injection of classical microwave radiation into both of the microwave cavities and the presence of an rf coil situated at the exit of the micromaser cavity system.

  9. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  10. Revised scenario for human missions to Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salotti, Jean Marc

    2012-12-01

    We present a revised version of our scenario for human missions to Mars. The idea is to take into consideration the difficulties and constraints for entry, descent and landing by splitting the heavy vehicle into two smaller ones. The standard capsule shape is thus possible for aerocapture and landing on Mars. It is suggested to use the largest possible diameter such that the ballistic coefficient is minimized and the lift to drag ratio is kept small. The maneuvers for the descent and landing are then simplified and the risks are minimized. The scenario has been modified to cope with the new constraints. Different options have been taken into account. It is possible to land a small Mars ascent vehicle or to reuse the habitat lander for Mars ascent. All options perform as well as the others for the criterion of the initial mass in low Earth orbit. However, reusing the habitat lander allows a significant reduction of the size of the Earth return vehicle, which otherwise requires a huge launching capability.

  11. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  12. Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Cumberbatch, Daniel; Ruiz de Austri, Roberto; Trotta, Roberto

    2012-01-01

    The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the ``Nightmare scenario'' of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb-1 of integrated luminosity at 14 TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as simeq 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.

  13. Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Cumberbatch, Daniel; Austri, Roberto Ruiz de

    2012-01-01

    The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the ''Nightmare scenario'' of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb{sup −1} of integrated luminosity at 14 TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as ≅ 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.

  14. Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-01-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  15. Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-08-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  16. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H.; Darabi, F.; Sheykhi, A.

    2016-06-01

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation Δ V/Δ t = N_sur-N_bulk where N_bulk and N_sur are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper, we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as Δ V /Δ t=N_sur-N_bulk-N_extr where N_extr is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N_sur and N_bulk are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields.

  17. Multisite stochastic downscaling of climate model precipitation outputs to high resolution scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bordoy, R.; Burlando, P.

    2011-12-01

    show that, between certain scaling regimes, it is possible to use observed precipitation scaling properties to extrapolate RCMs statistics at resolutions lower than those conventionally provided by RCMs. It is shown that the explored downscaling technique has several advantages over other existing techniques. Among others it allows the investigation of changes of the internal properties of precipitation, thereby including variability and extremes, and the generation of an ensemble of stochastic realizations through a Monte Carlo approach. These features are an advantage over other downscaling procedures since they allow the explicit investigation of uncertainty due to the internal variability of the precipitation process. The results of this novel methodology are presented with regard to future scenarios generation in an alpine catchment in Switzerland using the RCM RegCM3 and the emission scenario A1B for the period 2011-2050.

  18. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  19. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  20. Integrating Future Information through Scenarios. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zentner, Rene D.

    The way that higher education planners can take into account changes in the post-industrial society is discussed. The scenario method is proposed as a method of integrating futures information. The planner can be provided with several probable futures, each of which can be incorporated in a scenario. An effective scenario provides the planner…

  1. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  2. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially or publicly available air dispersion modeling...

  3. Advanced tokamak scenario developments for the next step

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joffrin, E.

    2007-12-01

    The objective of advanced tokamak scenario research is to provide a candidate plasma scenario for continuous operation in a fusion power plant. The optimization of the self-generated non-inductive current by the bootstrap mechanism up to a level of 50% and above using high plasma pressure and improved confinement are the necessary conditions to achieve this goal. The two main candidate scenarios for continuous operation, the steady state scenario and long duration (up to 3000 s) high neutron fluency scenario (the hybrid scenario), both face physics challenges in terms of confinement, stability, power exhaust and plasma control. Resistive wall modes and Alfvénic fast ion driven instabilities are the main limitations for operating the steady state scenario at high pressure and low magnetic shear. In addition, this scenario demands a high degree of control over the plasma current and pressure profile and the steady state heat load on in-vessel plasma facing components. Understanding the confinement properties of hybrid scenario is still an outstanding issue as well as its modelling for ITER in particular with regard to the H-mode pedestal parameters. This scenario will also require active current profile control, although, less demanding than for the steady state scenario. To operate advanced tokamak scenario, broad current and pressure profile control appears as a necessary requirement on ITER actuators, in addition to the tools required for instability control such as error field coils or electron cyclotron current drive.

  4. The NorWeST Stream Temperature Database, Model, and Climate Scenarios for the Northwest U.S. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaak, D.; Wenger, S.; Peterson, E.; Ver Hoef, J.; Luce, C.; Hostetler, S. W.; Kershner, J.; Dunham, J.; Nagel, D.; Roper, B.

    2013-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is warming the Earth's rivers and streams and threatens significant changes to aquatic biodiversity. Effective threat response will require prioritization of limited conservation resources and coordinated interagency efforts guided by accurate information about climate, and climate change, at scales relevant to the distributions of species across landscapes. Here, we describe the NorWeST (i.e., NorthWest Stream Temperature) project to develop a comprehensive interagency stream temperature database and high-resolution climate scenarios across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming (~400,000 stream kilometers). The NorWeST database consists of stream temperature data contributed by >60 state, federal, tribal, and private resource agencies and may be the largest of its kind in the world (>45,000,000 hourly temperature recordings at >15,000 unique monitoring sites). These data are being used with spatial statistical network models to accurately downscale (R2 = 90%; RMSE < 1 C) global climate patterns to all perennially flowing reaches within river networks at 1-kilometer resolution. Historic stream temperature scenarios are developed using air temperature data from RegCM3 runs for the NCEP historical reanalysis and future scenarios (2040s and 2080s) are developed by applying bias corrected air temperature and discharge anomalies from ensemble climate and hydrology model runs for A1B and A2 warming trajectories. At present, stream temperature climate scenarios have been developed for 230,000 stream kilometers across Idaho and western Montana using data from more than 7,000 monitoring sites. The raw temperature data and stream climate scenarios are made available as ArcGIS geospatial products for download through the NorWeST website as individual river basins are completed (http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.shtml). By providing open access to temperature data and scenarios, the project is fostering new research on

  5. Various problems in lunar habitat construction scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, Keiji; Ohtsubo, Koji; Oguchi, Mitsuo; Ohya, Haruhiko; Kanbe, Seiichiro; Ashida, Akira; Sano, Kenichi

    1991-10-01

    Many papers describing the lunar base construction have been published previously. Lunar base has been considered to be a useful facility to conduct future scientific programs and to get new nuclear energy resource, namely 3He, for defending the environmental collapse on Earth and also to develop lunar resources such as oxygen and nitrogen for extending human activities in space more economically. The scale of the lunar base and the construction methods adopted are determined by the scenario of a lunar utilization program but constrained by the availability of the established space transportation technologies. As indicated in the scenarios described in papers regarding lunar base construction, the first steps of lunar missions are the investigation of lunar itself for conducting scientific research and for surveying the lunar base construction sites, the second steps are the outpost construction for conducting man-tended missions, for more precise scientific research and studying the lunar base construction methods, and third steps are the construction of a permanent base and the expansion of this lunar base for exploiting lunar resources. The missions within the first and second steps are all possible using the ferry (OTV) similar to the service and command modules of Apollo Spacecraft because all necessary weights to be landed on the lunar surface for these missions seem to be under the equivalent weight of the Apollo Lunar Lander. On the other hand, the permanent facilities constructed on the lunar surface in the third step requires larger quantities of construction materials to be transported from Earth, and a new ferry (advanced OTV) having higher transportation ability, at least above 6 times, compared with Apollo Service and Command Modules, are to be developed. The largest problems in the permament lunar base construction are related to the food production facilities, 30-40 m 2 plant cultivation area per person are required for providing the nutrition

  6. Methods for interfacing IPCC climate change scenarios with higher resolution watershed management models in the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Easton, Z. M.; MacAlister, C.; Fuka, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    As much as 90% of the Nile River flow that reaches Egypt originates in the Highlands of the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. This imbalance in water availability poses a threat to water security in the region, and could be severely impacted by projected climate change. This analysis coupled hydrodynamic/watershed models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 climate change scenarios to assess the potential impact on water resources and sediment dynamics. Specific AR4 scenarios include the A1B, B1, B2 and COMMIT, which were used to force the baseline hydrodynamic models calibrated against 1979-2011 streamflow for 20 sub-watersheds in the Tana and Beles basins. Transfer functions were developed to distribute the model parameters from the calibrated sub-watersheds to un-gauged portions of the basins based on a similarity index of hydrologic response units. We analyzed the scenario in two manners: first we ran all of the seven individual Global Circulation Model results in the IPCC AR4 report though our watershed models to asses the potential spread of climate change predictions; then we assessed the mean value produced for each IPCC AR4 scenario to better estimate convergence. Results indicate that the Tana basin is expected to experience an increase in mean annual flow. The Beles basin is predicted to experience a small decrease in mean annual flow. Sediment concentrations in the Tana basin increase proportionally more than the flow increase. Interestingly, and perhaps counter to what might be expected for a decrease in flow in the Beles basin, sediment concentrations increase.

  7. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    PubMed

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  8. Judgments of culpability in a filicide scenario.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Miller-Stratton, Heather; Heinrich, Emily; Fritz, Stacey; Smith, Shawn

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that potential jurors are likely to use personal biases, such as those based on gender and ethnicity, in their judgments of culpability of criminal defendants in addition to, or instead of, the facts of the crime. The present paper seeks to extend this literature to the crime of filicide; to examine whether male defendants are judged more harshly than female defendants, as is the case for domestic violence and sexual abuse. 214 participants were provided with a scenario of filicide in which the gender of the perpetrator, the gender of the child, and the family's social class were randomly assigned. Participants were asked to rate the culpability of the defendant in the case. Results indicated that, unlike for other violent crimes, participants did not use gender or social class biases in their judgments of criminal culpability.

  9. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  10. Multipartite maximally entangled states in symmetric scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Guillén, Carlos E.

    2012-08-01

    We consider the class of (N+1)-partite states suitable for protocols where there is a powerful party, the authority, and the other N parties play the same role, namely, the state of their system lies in the symmetric Hilbert space. We show that, within this scenario, there is a “maximally entangled state” that can be transform by a local operations and classical communication protocol into any other state. In addition, we show how to use the protocol efficiently, including the construction of the state, and discuss security issues for possible applications to cryptographic protocols. As an immediate consequence we recover a sequential protocol that implements the 1-to-N symmetric cloning.

  11. Emergence in holographic scenarios for gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieks, Dennis; van Dongen, Jeroen; de Haro, Sebastian

    2015-11-01

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightforwardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and gravity there as well.

  12. A COLLISIONLESS SCENARIO FOR URANUS TILTING

    SciTech Connect

    Boue, Gwenael; Laskar, Jacques

    2010-03-20

    The origin of the high inclination of Uranus' spin-axis (Uranus' obliquity) is one of the great unanswered questions about the solar system. Giant planets are believed to form with nearly zero obliquity, and it has been shown that the present behavior of Uranus' spin is essentially stable. Several attempts were made in order to solve this problem. Here we report numerical simulations showing that Uranus' axis can be tilted during the planetary migration, without the need of a giant impact, provided that the planet had an additional satellite and a temporary large inclination. This might have happened during the giant planet instability phase described in the Nice model. In our scenario, the satellite is ejected after the tilt by a close encounter at the end of the migration. This model can both explain Uranus' large obliquity and bring new constraints on the planet orbital evolution.

  13. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise.

  14. The Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity.

    PubMed

    Niedermaier, Max; Reuter, Martin

    2006-01-01

    The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity is reviewed, according to which a renormalizable quantum theory of the gravitational field is feasible which reconciles asymptotically safe couplings with unitarity. The evidence from symmetry truncations and from the truncated flow of the effective average action is presented in detail. A dimensional reduction phenomenon for the residual interactions in the extreme ultraviolet links both results. For practical reasons the background effective action is used as the central object in the quantum theory. In terms of it criteria for a continuum limit are formulated and the notion of a background geometry self-consistently determined by the quantum dynamics is presented. Self-contained appendices provide prerequisites on the background effective action, the effective average action, and their respective renormalization flows.

  15. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  16. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  17. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  18. Neutralino dark matter from string scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Cerdeno, D. G.

    2007-01-12

    The direct detection of neutralino dark matter is analysed within the context of orbifold scenarios from the heterotic superstring. In particular, the neutralino-proton cross section is computed and compared with the sensitivity of detectors, taking into account the most recent experimental and astrophysical constraints. In addition to the usual non-universalities of the soft terms in orbifold compactifications, due to their modular weight dependence, the contribution of a D-term, generated by the presence of an anomalous U(1) is also investigated. The D-term contribution provides more flexibility in the non-universalities, and is crucial iniding dangerous charge and colour-breaking minima. Thanks to it, large neutralino detection cross sections can be obtained in regions of the parameter space fulfilling all experimental and astrophysical constraints.

  19. Neutralino dark matter in orbifold scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Cerdeno, D. G.

    2006-11-28

    The direct detection of neutralino dark matter is analysed within the context of orbifold scenarios from the heterotic superstring. In particular, the theoretical predictions for the neutralino-proton cross section are evaluated and compared with the sensitivity of detectors, taking into account the most recent experimental and astrophysical constraints. In addition to the usual non-universalities of the soft terms in orbifold compactifications, due to their modular weight dependence, the contribution of a D-term, generated by the presence o anomalous U (1) is also investigated. The D-term contribution provides more flexibility in the non-universalities, and is crucial in avoiding dangerous charge and colour-breaking minima. Large neutralino detection cross sections can be obtained in regions of the parameter space fulfilling all experimental and astrophysical constraints thanks to the inclusion of the D-term contribution.

  20. Detecting genuine multipartite entanglement in steering scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jebaratnam, C.

    2016-05-01

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering is a form of quantum nonlocality which is intermediate between entanglement and Bell nonlocality. EPR steering is a resource for quantum key distribution that is device independent on only one side in that it certifies bipartite entanglement when one party's device is not characterized while the other party's device is fully characterized. In this work, we introduce two types of genuine tripartite EPR steering, and derive two steering inequalities to detect them. In a semi-device-independent scenario where only the dimensions of two parties are assumed, the correlations which violate one of these inequalities also certify genuine tripartite entanglement. It is known that Alice can demonstrate bipartite EPR steering to Bob if and only if her measurement settings are incompatible. We demonstrate that quantum correlations can also detect tripartite EPR steering from Alice to Bob and Charlie, even if Charlie's measurement settings are compatible.

  1. Rapid impactor sample return (RISR) mission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, James D.; Freitas, Christopher J.; Tapley, Mark B.

    2004-01-01

    Due to the long lead time and great expense of traditional sample return mission plans to Mars or other astronomical bodies, there is a need for a new and innovative way to return materials, potentially at a lower cost. The Rapid Impactor Sample Return (RISR) mission is one such proposal. The general mission scenario involves a single pass of Mars, a Martian moon or an asteroid at high speeds (7 km/s), with the sample return vehicle skimming just 1 or 2 m above a high point (such as a top ridge on Olympus Mons on Mars) and releasing an impactor. The impactor strikes the ground, throwing up debris. The debris with roughly the same forward velocity will be captured by the sample return vehicle and returned to Earth. There is no delay or orbit in the vicinity of Mars or the asteroid: RISR is a one-pass mission. This paper discusses some of the details of the proposal. Calculations are presented that address the question of how much material can be recovered with this technique. There are concerns about the effect of Mars tenuous atmosphere. However, it will be noted that such issues do not occur for RISR style missions to Phobos, Deimos, or asteroids and Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Recent test results in the missile defense community (IFTs 6-8 in 2001, 2002) have scored direct hits at better than 1 m accuracy with closing velocities of 7.6 km/s, giving the belief that accuracy and sensing issues are developed to a point that the RISR mission scenario is feasible.

  2. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  3. Advances on modelling of ITER scenarios: physics and computational challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giruzzi, G.; Garcia, J.; Artaud, J. F.; Basiuk, V.; Decker, J.; Imbeaux, F.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.

    2011-12-01

    Methods and tools for design and modelling of tokamak operation scenarios are discussed with particular application to ITER advanced scenarios. Simulations of hybrid and steady-state scenarios performed with the integrated tokamak modelling suite of codes CRONOS are presented. The advantages of a possible steady-state scenario based on cyclic operations, alternating phases of positive and negative loop voltage, with no magnetic flux consumption on average, are discussed. For regimes in which current alignment is an issue, a general method for scenario design is presented, based on the characteristics of the poloidal current density profile.

  4. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final

  5. Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neupane, Ram P.; White, Joseph D.; Alexander, Sara E.

    2015-06-01

    In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains

  6. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  7. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  8. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  9. Climate change scenarios of temperature and precipitation over five Italian regions for the period 2021-2050 obtained by statistical downscaling models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomozeiu, R.; Tomei, F.; Villani, G.; Pasqui, M.

    2010-09-01

    Climate change scenarios of seasonal maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation in five Italian regions, over the period 2021-2050 against 1961-1990 are assessed. The regions selected by the AGROSCENARI project are important from the local agricultural practises and are situated as follows: in the Northern Italy - Po valley and hilly area of Faenza; in Central part of Italy- Marche, Beneventano and Destra Sele, and in Sardinia Island - Oristano. A statistical downscaling technique applied to the ENSEMBLES global climate simulations, A1B scenario, is used to reach this objective. The method consists of a multivariate regression, based on Canonical Correlation Analysis, using as possible predictors mean sea level pressure, geopotential height at 500hPa and temperature at 850 hPa. The observational data set (predictands) for the selected regions is composed by a reconstruction of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation daily data on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km, for 1951-2009 period (managed by the Meteorological and Climatological research unit for agriculture - Agricultural Research Council, CRA - CMA). First, a set-up of statistical model has been made using predictors from ERA40 reanalysis and the seasonal indices of temperature and precipitation from local scale, 1958-2002 period. Then, the statistical downscaling model has been applied to the predictors derived from the ENSEMBLES global climate models, A1B scenario, in order to obtain climate change scenario of temperature and precipitation at local scale, 2021-2050 period. The projections show that increases could be expected to occur under scenario conditions in all seasons, in both minimum and maximum temperature. The magnitude of changes is more intense during summer when the changes could reach values around 2°C for minimum and maximum temperature. In the case of precipitation, the pattern of changes is more complex, different from season to season and over the regions, a

  10. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giacomelli, P.; Rossetti, A.; Brambilla, M.

    2008-04-01

    Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina) retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  11. Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

    Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

  12. Nonlocal correlations in a macroscopic measurement scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkri, Samir; Banik, Manik; Ghosh, Sibasish

    2017-02-01

    Nonlocality is one of the main characteristic features of quantum systems involving more than one spatially separated subsystem. It is manifested theoretically as well as experimentally through violation of some local realistic inequality. On the other hand, classical behavior of all physical phenomena in the macroscopic limit gives a general intuition that any physical theory for describing microscopic phenomena should resemble classical physics in the macroscopic regime, the so-called macrorealism. In the 2-2-2 scenario (two parties, with each performing two measurements and each measurement having two outcomes), contemplating all the no-signaling correlations, we characterize which of them would exhibit classical (local realistic) behavior in the macroscopic limit. Interestingly, we find correlations which at the single-copy level violate the Bell-Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality by an amount less than the optimal quantum violation (i.e., Cirel'son bound 2 √{2 } ), but in the macroscopic limit gives rise to a value which is higher than 2 √{2 } . Such correlations are therefore not considered physical. Our study thus provides a sufficient criterion to identify some of unphysical correlations.

  13. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  14. Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection in Urban Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rejas Ayuga, J. G.; Martínez Marín, R.; Marchamalo Sacristán, M.; Bonatti, J.; Ojeda, J. C.

    2016-06-01

    We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR), shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain) and San José (Costa Rica) respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background) based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  15. Realities of leprosy control: updating scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gonçalves, Aguinaldo

    2013-09-01

    In the light of successive therapeutical difficulties for leprosy control, the application of drug therapy combination over the last decades has brought about an expectation of cure for leprosy patients and also for the elimination of this illness as a Public Health problem. However, there has been a progressive reduction in the prevalence of leprosy, but without any apparent impact on transmission, which has led to recognized need for solid assessment of respective epidemiological evidence as grounds for interventions to solve the problem. In this regard, here we present a retroanalytical qualitative and quantitative study, combined with a prospective diachronic approach, based on the association of documental review techniques and analysis of content, involving the following phases in succession: assembly of an operational scheme, execution of search strategy, application of criteria, selection of studies, data extraction and processing, implementation of analysis plan and preparation of final text. The appropriate execution of the procedures, as applied, allows us to obtain and discuss the identification of three main scenarios: the elimination of the illness as a public health problem (Neglected Illness); therapeutic aspects (Resistance; Relapse; Non-Adherence; Persistence) and complexity (complications and physical incapacities). The conclusions that have been reached indicate,mainly, that the reality of leprosy control with the use of combination drug therapy, still needs to be handled with care, even more so as this is just a fragment of the set of people once under medical attention, which also correspond to a parcel of the set of people affected by the ailment.

  16. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  17. Realistic Ground Motion Scenarios: Methodological Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Nunziata, C.; Peresan, A.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.; Panza, G. F.

    2008-07-08

    The definition of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios. The propagation of the waves in the bedrock from the source to the local laterally varying structure is computed with the modal summation technique, while in the laterally heterogeneous structure the finite difference method is used. The definition of shear wave velocities within the soil cover is obtained from the non-linear inversion of the dispersion curve of group velocities of Rayleigh waves, artificially or naturally generated. Information about the possible focal mechanisms of the sources can be obtained from historical seismicity, based on earthquake catalogues and inversion of isoseismal maps. In addition, morphostructural zonation and pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes is useful to identify areas prone to strong earthquakes, based on the combined analysis of topographic, tectonic, geological maps and satellite photos. We show that the quantitative knowledge of regional geological structures and the computation of realistic ground motion can be a powerful tool for a preventive definition of the seismic hazard in Italy. Then, the formulation of reliable building codes, based on the evaluation of the main potential earthquakes, will have a great impact on the effective reduction of the seismic vulnerability of Italian urban areas, validating or improving the national building code.

  18. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; /SLAC

    2010-11-17

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  19. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    PubMed

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  20. Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-01-01

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. PMID:23790367

  1. Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xue; Ye, Si-Yuan; Wei, Ai-Hua; Zhou, Peng-Peng; Wang, Li-Heng

    2017-03-01

    A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011-2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961-2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

  2. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

  3. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  4. Propagation models for non line-of-sight scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tasu, A. S.; Anchidin, L.; Tamas, R.; Petrescu, T.

    2016-12-01

    The log-normal propagation model is usually applied for scenarios including a line-of-sight path. However, there are many cases that do not include such a propagation path, e.g. indoor transmission and disaster situations, when radio waves have to penetrate trough ruins. In this paper, we show that the log-normal model can also be applied for non line-of-sight transmission. Both indoor scenario and trough-ruins scenario, are investigated.

  5. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  6. Turbulence mitigation methods for sea scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dijk, Judith; Schutte, Klamer; Nieuwenhuizen, Robert P. J.

    2016-10-01

    Visual and infrared imagery is degraded by turbulence caused by atmospheric conditions. Because the degradation gets worse for longer distances, turbulence especially hampers long range observation. At sea this turbulence affects classification and identification of ships and other objects. State of the art software based processing algorithms assuming a static background assumption will fail in such conditions because of the non-static sea background. Therefore, we propose an adapted processing chain aiming to provide optimal turbulence correction for ships seen in the camera view. First we propose to use standard object detection and tracking methods for an indication of the location of the ship. Subsequently, image registration is performed within the ship's region of interest, covering only the ship of interest. After this region of interest registration, standard turbulence mitigation software can be applied to the region of interest. For ships with other movement than translation only we propose a two-step motion estimation using local optical flow. In this paper we show results of this processing chain for sea scenarios using our TNO turbulence mitigation method. Ship data is processed using the algorithm proposed above and the results are analyzed by both human observation and by image analysis. The improvement of the imagery is qualitatively shown by examining details which cannot be seen without processing and can be seen with processing. Quantitatively, the improvement is related to the energy per spatial frequency in the original and processed images and the signal to noise improvement. This provides a model for the improvement of the results, and is related to the improvement of the classification and identification range. The results show that with this novel approach the classification and identification range of ships is improved.

  7. Radiation Protection for Lunar Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clowdsley, Martha S.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.; Anderson, Brooke M.; Anderson, Mark S.; Krizan, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Preliminary analyses of shielding requirements to protect astronauts from the harmful effects of radiation on both short-term and long-term lunar missions have been performed. Shielding needs for both solar particle events (SPEs) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure are discussed for transit vehicles and surface habitats. This work was performed under the aegis of two NASA initiatives. The first study was an architecture trade study led by Langley Research Center (LaRC) in which a broad range of vehicle types and mission scenarios were compared. The radiation analysis for this study primarily focused on the additional shielding mass required to protect astronauts from the rare occurrence of a large SPE. The second study, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), involved the design of lunar habitats. Researchers at LaRC were asked to evaluate the changes to mission architecture that would be needed if the surface stay were lengthened from a shorter mission duration of 30 to 90 days to a longer stay of 500 days. Here, the primary radiation concern was GCR exposure. The methods used for these studies as well as the resulting shielding recommendations are discussed. Recommendations are also made for more detailed analyses to minimize shielding mass, once preliminary vehicle and habitat designs have been completed. Here, methodologies are mapped out and available radiation analysis tools are described. Since, as yet, no dosimetric limits have been adopted for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO), radiation exposures are compared to LEO limits. Uncertainties associated with the LEO career effective dose limits and the effects of lowering these limits on shielding mass are also discussed.

  8. Non-standard structure formation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knebe, Alexander; Little, Brett; Islam, Ranty; Devriendt, Julien; Mahmood, Asim; Silk, Joe

    2003-04-01

    Observations on galactic scales seem to be in contradiction with recent high resolution N-body simulations. This so-called cold dark matter (CDM) crisis has been addressed in several ways, ranging from a change in fundamental physics by introducing self-interacting cold dark matter particles to a tuning of complex astrophysical processes such as global and/or local feedback. All these efforts attempt to soften density profiles and reduce the abundance of satellites in simulated galaxy halos. In this contribution we are exploring the differences between a Warm Dark Matter model and a CDM model where the power on a certain scale is reduced by introducing a narrow negative feature (`dip'). This dip is placed in a way so as to mimic the loss of power in the WDM model: both models have the same integrated power out to the scale where the power of the Dip model rises to the level of the unperturbed CDM spectrum again. Using N-body simulations we show that that the new Dip model appears to be a viable alternative to WDM while being based on different physics: where WDM requires the introduction of a new particle species the Dip stems from anon-standard inflationary period. If we are looking for an alternative to the currently challenged standard ΛCDM structure formation scenario, neither the ΛWDM nor the new Dip model can be ruled out with respect to the analysis presented in this contribution. They both make very similar predictions and the degeneracy between them can only be broken with observations yet to come.

  9. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  10. Heuristic scenario builder for power system operator training

    SciTech Connect

    Irisarri, G.; Rafian, M. ); Miller, B.N. ); Dobrowolski, E.J. )

    1992-05-01

    The Heuristic Scenario Builder (HSB), a knowledge-based training scenario builder for the EPRI Operator Training Simulator (OTS), is described in this paper. Expert systems and heuristic searches are used in the HSB to find training scenarios that closely fit trainee profiles and that address particular training requirements. Expert knowledge obtained from instructors and other operations personnel is used throughout the HSB to determine the scenarios. The HSB is an integral part of the OTS and is currently in operation at Philadelphia Electric's OTS installation.

  11. Traffic scenario generation technique for piloted simulation studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, David H.; Wells, Douglas C.

    1985-01-01

    Piloted simulation studies of cockpit traffic display concepts require the development of representative traffic scenarios. With the exception of specific aircraft interaction issues, most research questions can be addressed using traffic scenarios consisting of prerecorded aircraft movements merged together to form a desired traffic pattern. Prerecorded traffic scenarios have distinct research advantages, allowing control of traffic encounters with repeatability of scenarios between different test subjects. A technique is described for generation of prerecorded jet transport traffic scenarios suitable for use in piloted simulation studies. Individual flight profiles for the aircraft in the scenario are created interactively with a computer program designed specifically for this purpose. The profiles are then time-correlated and merged into a complete scenario. This technique was used to create traffic scenarios for the Denver, Colorado area with operations centered at Stapleton International Airport. Traffic scenarios for other areas may also be created using this technique, with appropriate modifications made to the navigation fix locations contained in the flight profile generation program.

  12. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

  13. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks along topographic transects under climate change scenarios using CarboSOIL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Jordán, Antonio; Anaya-Romero, María; de la Rosa, Diego

    2014-05-01

    CarboSOIL is a land evaluation model for soil organic carbon (SOC) accounting under global change scenarios (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013a; 2013b) and is a new component of the MicroLEIS Decision Support System. MicroLEIS is a tool for decision-makers dealing with specific agro-ecological problems as, for example, soil contamination risks (Abd-Elmabod et al., 2010; Abd-Elmabod et al., 2012)which has been designed as a knowledge-based approach incorporating a set of interlinked data bases. Global change and land use changes in recent decades have caused relevant impacts in vegetation carbon stocks (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2011) and soil organic carbon stocks, especially in sensible areas as the Mediterranean region (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b). This study aims to investigate the influence of topography, climate, land use and soil factors on SOC stocks by the application of CarboSOIL in a representative area of the Mediterranean region (Seville, Spain). Two topographic transects (S-N and W-E oriented) were considered, including 63 points separated 4 km each. These points are associated to 41 soil profiles extracted from the SDBm soil data base (De la Rosa et al., 2001) and climatic information (average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature and average rainfall per month) extracted from raster data bases (Andalusian Environmental Information Network, REDIAM). CarboSOIL has been applied along topographic transects at different soil depths and under different climate change scenarios. Climate scenarios have been calculated according to the global climate model (CNRMCM3) by extracting spatial climate data under IPCC A1B scenario for the current period (average data from 1960-2000), 2040, 2070 and 2100. In the current scenario, results show that the highest SOC stock values located on Typic Haploxeralfs under olive groves for soil sections 0-25 cm and for 25-50 cm, but the highest values were determined on fruit-cropped Rendolic Xerothent in the 50-75cm

  14. Predicting Monsoonal-Driven Stream Discharge and Sediment Yield in Himalaya Mountain Basins with Changing Climate and Deforestation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neupane, R. P.; White, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Short and long term effects of site water availability impacts the spectrum of management outcomes including landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture in mountain systems heavily influenced by climate and land use changes. Climate change and land use may predominantly affect the hydrologic cycle of mountain basins as soil precipitation interception is affected by land cover. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, we estimated stream discharge and sediment yield associated with climate and land use changes for two Himalaya basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal that included drainages of the Tamor and Seti Rivers. Future climate change was modeled using average output of temperature and precipitation changes derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (B1, A1B & A2) of 16 global circulation models for 2080 as meteorological inputs into SWAT. Land use change was modeled spatially and included 1) deforestation, 2) expansion of agricultural land, and 3) increased human settlement that were produced by considering current land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use types. We found higher annual stream discharge in all GCM-derived scenarios compared to the baseline with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. With 7% of original forest land removed, sediment yield for Tamor basin was estimated to be 65% higher, but increased to 124% for the SRES-B1 scenario. For the Seti basin, 4% deforestation yielded 33% more sediment for the SRES-A1B scenario. Our results indicated that combined effects of future, intensified monsoon rainfall with deforestation lead to dramatic potential for increased stream discharge and sediment yield as rainfall on steep slopes with thin exposed soils increases surface runoff and soil erosion in the Himalayas. This effect appears to

  15. Exploring the electron transfer pathways in photosystem I by high-time-resolution electron paramagnetic resonance: observation of the B-side radical pair P700(+)A1B(-) in whole cells of the deuterated green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii at cryogenic temperatures.

    PubMed

    Berthold, Thomas; von Gromoff, Erika Donner; Santabarbara, Stefano; Stehle, Patricia; Link, Gerhard; Poluektov, Oleg G; Heathcote, Peter; Beck, Christoph F; Thurnauer, Marion C; Kothe, Gerd

    2012-03-28

    Crystallographic models of photosystem I (PS I) highlight a symmetrical arrangement of the electron transfer cofactors which are organized in two parallel branches (A, B) relative to a pseudo-C2 symmetry axis that is perpendicular to the membrane plane. Here, we explore the electron transfer pathways of PS I in whole cells of the deuterated green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii using high-time-resolution electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) at cryogenic temperatures. Particular emphasis is given to quantum oscillations detectable in the tertiary radical pairs P700(+)A1A(-) and P700(+)A1B(-) of the electron transfer chain. Results are presented first for the deuterated site-directed mutant PsaA-M684H in which electron transfer beyond the primary electron acceptor A0A on the PsaA branch of electron transfer is impaired. Analysis of the quantum oscillations, observed in a two-dimensional Q-band (34 GHz) EPR experiment, provides the geometry of the B-side radical pair. The orientation of the g tensor of P700(+) in an external reference system is adapted from a time-resolved multifrequency EPR study of deuterated and 15N-substituted cyanobacteria (Link, G.; Berthold, T.; Bechtold, M.; Weidner, J.-U.; Ohmes, E.; Tang, J.; Poluektov, O.; Utschig, L.; Schlesselman, S. L.; Thurnauer, M. C.; Kothe, G. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2001, 123, 4211-4222). Thus, we obtain the three-dimensional structure of the B-side radical pair following photoexcitation of PS I in its native membrane. The new structure describes the position and orientation of the reduced B-side quinone A1B(-) on a nanosecond time scale after light-induced charge separation. Furthermore, we present results for deuterated wild-type cells of C. reinhardtii demonstrating that both radical pairs P700(+)A1A(-) and P700(+)A1B(-) participate in the electron transfer process according to a mole ratio of 0.71/0.29 in favor of P700(+)A1A(-). A detailed comparison reveals different orientations of A1A(-) and A1B(-) in their

  16. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy D.

    2008-10-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  17. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F; Stephen, Jamie; Stumborg, Mark; Fenton, James; Mani, Sudhagar

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  18. Student Experience of a Scenario-Centred Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-01-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and…

  19. Application Scenarios for Nonstandard Log-Linear Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mair, Patrick; von Eye, Alexander

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the authors have 2 aims. First, hierarchical, nonhierarchical, and nonstandard log-linear models are defined. Second, application scenarios are presented for nonhierarchical and nonstandard models, with illustrations of where these scenarios can occur. Parameters can be interpreted in regard to their formal meaning and in regard…

  20. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbo...

  1. Online Scenarios for Teaching Internet Ethics to Teens.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Frances F.

    2001-01-01

    At University Laboratory High School, ethics lessons are integrated into the required eight-grade computer literacy course. Six messages are posted online, each containing an ethical scenario. Students add their opinions to each scenario's thread, read each other's postings, and respond to at least one student follow-up message within each topic.…

  2. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries r...

  3. Alternative Needs Planning Methods and the Scenario Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-05-23

    that can be used as aids. Consideration will be given to a multidimensional technique for catagorization described by Ducot and Lubben*. In addition...number of such rudimentary scenarios. It is anticipated that five or six might be identified. * Ducot , C. and Lubben, G. J., "A Typology for Scenarios

  4. ImmunoScenarios: A Game for the Immune System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Mark F.; Jackson, Sally W.

    1996-01-01

    Describes a board game, ImmunoScenarios, which was developed to reinforce the ideas about the immune system discussed in lecture classes. Emphasizes important characteristics of the body's specific defense system including specificity, cooperation among various cells, and memory. Includes directions for playing, student handouts, and scenarios.…

  5. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edeling, W. N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R. P.

    2014-10-01

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  6. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  7. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  8. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  9. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  10. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  11. Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. Results A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010–2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are

  12. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    PubMed

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  13. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  14. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  15. European scenarios for exposure of soil organisms to pesticides.

    PubMed

    Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos J T I; Egsmose, Mark; Gardi, Ciro; Klein, Michael; Vanderborght, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Standardised exposure scenarios play an important role in European pesticide authorisation procedures (a scenario is a combination of climate, weather and crop data to be used in exposure models). The European Food Safety Authority developed such scenarios for the assessment of exposure of soil organisms to pesticides. Scenarios were needed for both the concentration in total soil and for the concentration in the liquid phase. The goal of the exposure assessment is the 90th percentile of the exposure concentration in the area of agricultural use of a pesticide in each of three regulatory European zones (North, Centre and South). A statistical approach was adopted to find scenarios that are consistent with this exposure goal. Scenario development began with the simulation of the concentration distribution in the entire area of use by means of a simple analytical model. In the subsequent two steps, procedures were applied to account for parameter uncertainty and scenario uncertainty (i.e. the likelihood that a scenario that is derived for one pesticide is not conservative enough for another pesticide). In the final step, the six scenarios were selected by defining their average air temperature, soil organic-matter content and their soil textural class. Organic matter of the selected scenarios decreased in the order North-Centre-South. Because organic matter has a different effect on the concentration in total soil than it has on the concentration in the liquid phase, the concentration in total soil decreased in the order North-Centre-South whereas the concentration in the liquid phase decreased in the opposite order. The concentration differences between the three regulatory zones appeared to be no more than a factor of two. These differences were comparatively small in view of the considerable differences in climate and soil properties between the three zones.

  16. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  17. Prediction of Soil Erosion from Uplands under Climate Change Scenarios in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Min-Kyeong; Ko, Byong-Gu; Hur, Seung-Oh; Kim, Min-Young; Lee, Deog-Bae

    2010-05-01

    Major impacts of climate change expect that soil erosion rate may increase during the 21st century. This study was conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion by water in Korea. The soil loss was estimated for regions with the potential risk of soil erosion on a national scale. For computation, Universal soil loss equation (USLE) with rainfall and runoff erosivity factors (R), cover management factors (C), support practice factors (P) and revised USLE with soil erodibility factors (K) and topographic factors (LS) were used. RUSLE, the revised version of USLE, was modified for Korean conditions and re-evaluated to estimate the national-scale of soil loss based on the digital soil maps for Korea. The changes of precipitation for 2010 to 2090s were predicted under A1B scenarios made by National Institute of Meteorological Research in Korea. Future soil loss was predicted based on a change of R factor. As results, the predicted precipitations were increased by 6.7% for 2010 to 2030, 9.5% for 2040 to 2060s and 190% for 2070 to 2090s, respectively. The total soil loss from uplands in 2005 was estimated approximately 28ⅹ106 ton. Total soil losses were estimated as 31ⅹ106 ton in 2010 to 2030s, 31ⅹ106 ton in 2040 to 2060s and 33ⅹ106 ton in 2070 to 2090s, respectively. As precipitation increased by 17% in the end of 21st century, the total soil loss was increased by 12.9%. Overall, these results emphasize the significance of precipitation. However, it should be noted that when precipitation becomes insignificant, the results may turn out to be complex due to the large interaction among plant biomass, runoff and erosion. This may cause increase or decrease the overall erosion.

  18. Transcriptomic Characterization of Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum, Cuvier, 1818) Exposed to Three Climate Change Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Prado-Lima, Marcos; Val, Adalberto Luis

    2016-01-01

    Climate change substantially affects biodiversity around the world, especially in the Amazon region, which is home to a significant portion of the world’s biodiversity. Freshwater fishes are susceptible to increases in water temperature and variations in the concentrations of dissolved gases, especially oxygen and carbon dioxide. It is important to understand the mechanisms underlying the physiological and biochemical abilities of fishes to survive such environmental changes. In the present study, we applied RNA-Seq and de novo transcriptome sequencing to evaluate transcriptome alterations in tambaqui when exposed to five or fifteen days of the B1, A1B and A2 climate scenarios foreseen by the IPCC. The generated ESTs were assembled into 54,206 contigs. Gene ontology analysis and the STRING tool were then used to identify candidate protein domains, genes and gene families potentially responsible for the adaptation of tambaqui to climate changes. After sequencing eight RNA-Seq libraries, 32,512 genes were identified and mapped using the Danio rerio genome as a reference. In total, 236 and 209 genes were differentially expressed at five and fifteen days, respectively, including chaperones, energetic metabolism-related genes, translation initiation factors and ribosomal genes. Gene ontology enrichment analysis revealed that mitochondrion, protein binding, protein metabolic process, metabolic processes, gene expression, structural constituent of ribosome and translation were the most represented terms. In addition, 1,202 simple sequence repeats were detected, 88 of which qualified for primer design. These results show that cellular response to climate change in tambaqui is complex, involving many genes, and it may be controlled by different cues and transcription/translation regulation mechanisms. The data generated from this study provide a valuable resource for further studies on the molecular mechanisms involved in the adaptation of tambaqui and other closely

  19. Analyses of Scenarios for Past and Possible Future Aircraft Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Patten, Kenneth O.; Rahmes, Tim

    1997-01-01

    This project contains several components to work with the NASA AEAP program in better definition of scenarios for aircraft emissions and in determining the sensitivity of the atmosphere to such emissions. Under this project, Don Wuebbles continues as chair of the Operations and Emissions Scenarios Committee for AEAP. We are also coordinating with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to ensure the highest quality possible in the emissions scenarios promoted by the Emissions Scenarios committee. We continue to help coordination of NASA AEAP with international activities. This includes work with ICAO towards international analysis of aircraft emissions inventories; performing analyses to compare and evaluate databases of aircraft emissions developed for NASA and by various international groups and from these analyses, develop guidelines for future emissions scenarios development. Special sensitivity analyses, using our two-dimensional chemical-transport model of the global troposphere and stratosphere, have been used to determine potential sensitivity of further enhancements that could be made to emissions scenarios development. The latter studies are to be used in prioritizing further emissions scenario development.

  20. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, Jae; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  1. Solid waste management scenarios for Cetinje in Montenegro.

    PubMed

    Yetis, Ulku; Jakobsen, Jens Bjørn; Dilek, Filiz B; Kıyık, Enver; Mugoša, Sanja; Novović, Jadranka; Kerestecioglu, Merih

    2015-05-01

    This study presents the options for source-segregation and selective collection of recyclable waste fractions for Cetinje, Montenegro, with the aim of meeting the European Union 50% waste recycling target in 2023, and extending collection and disposal system that builds on the existing strengths of the city. To this end, three options were considered: (1) source separation and separate collection of dry recyclable materials and central sorting of residual waste; (2) source separation and collection of co-mingled dry recyclable materials, and central sorting in a clean material recovery facility of comingled recyclables and central sorting of residual waste; (3) collection of mixed waste (current situation) and subsequent central sorting. Scenarios 1 and 2 were found to meet the European Union 50% recycling target in 2023, provided that a fast implementation of the new separate collection schemes to fine sort the co-mingled collected recyclable materials is available. Finally, a financial evaluation was made for the options and the investment and operational costs over a 20-year period were estimated. Unit costs for Scenario 3 were found to be lower than for Scenario 1 and 2. As Scenario 3 will not meet the future European Union recycling targets, Scenario 2 has been pointed as the most feasible scenario for Cetinje, with reference to the expected lower total costs compared with Scenario 1.

  2. Global Crop Yield Reductions due to Surface Ozone Exposure: Crop Production Losses and Economic Damage in 2000 and 2030 under Two Future Scenarios of O3 Pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avnery, S.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Liu, J.; Horowitz, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    Field studies demonstrate that exposure to elevated concentrations of surface ozone (O3) may cause substantial reductions in the agricultural yields of many crops. As emissions of O3 precursors rise in many parts of the world over the next few decades, yield reductions from O3 exposure may increase the challenges of feeding a global population projected to grow from approximately 6 to 8 billion people between 2000 and 2030. This study estimates global yield reductions of three key staple crops (soybean, maize, and wheat) due to surface ozone exposure in 2000 and 2030 according to two trajectories of O3 pollution: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 and B1 storylines, which represent upper- and lower-boundary projections, respectively, of most O3 precursor emissions in 2030. Our results indicate that year 2000 O3-induced global yield reductions ranged, depending on the O3 exposure metric used, from 3.9-15% for wheat, 8.5-14% for soybean, and 2.2-5.5% for maize. Global crop production losses totaled 79-121 million metric tons, worth 11-18 billion annually (USD2000). In the 2030-A2 scenario we find global O3-induced yield loss of wheat to be 5.4-26% (a further reduction in yield of +1.5-10% from year 2000 values), 15-19% for soybean (reduction of +0.9-11%), and 4.4-8.7% for maize (reduction of +2.1-3.2%) depending on the metric used, with total global agricultural losses worth 17-35 billion USD2000 annually (an increase of +6-17 billion in losses from 2000). Under the 2030-B1 scenario, we project less severe but still substantial reductions in yields: 4.0-17% for wheat (a further decrease in yield of +0.1-1.8% from 2000), 9.5-15% for soybean (decrease of +0.7-1.0%), and 2.5-6.0% for maize (decrease of+ 0.3-0.5%), with total losses worth 12-21 billion annually (an increase of +$1-3 billion in losses from 2000). Because our analysis uses crop data from the year 2000, which likely underestimates agricultural

  3. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  4. Integrated Modelling of Iter Hybrid Scenarios with Eccd

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giruzzi, G.; Artaud, J. F.; Basiuk, V.; Garcia, J.; Imbeaux, F.; Schneider, M.

    2009-04-01

    ITER hybrid scenarios may require off-axis current drive in order to keep the safety factor above 1. In this type of applications, alignment of the current sources and self-consistency of current and temperature profiles are critical issues, which can only be addressed by integrated modelling. To this end, the CRONOS suite of codes has been applied to the simulation of these scenarios. Results of simulations of ITER hybrid scenarios assisted by ECCD, using the ITER equatorial launcher, for both co- and counter-ECCD, are presented.

  5. Linking Aerosol Source Activities to Present and Future Climate Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D.; Menon, S.; Unger, N.

    2007-05-01

    Aerosol source sectors (transport, power, industry, residential, biomass burning) generate distinct mixtures of aerosol species. These mixtures in turn have different effects on climate. As sectoral emissions change in coming decades, whether by regulation or not, it is helpful to link pollution from source types to climate consequences. We do so, using our global (GISS GCM) aerosol model for present and future IPCC SRES scenarios. According to our model, residential and transport sectors have net positive 1995 aerosol forcings (0.04 and 0.03 W m-2) due to their large black carbon contents. However, the sulfate-dominated power and industry sectors have net negative 1995 forcings (-0.10 and -0.09 W m-2). Due to the near-balance of absorbing and scattering components, biomass burning forcing is small. For the 2050 SRES A1B scenario, the net (negative) aerosol forcing is double 1995 due primarily to increased sulfur emissions in the industry and power sectors. For 2050 B1 the net (negative) forcing decreases relative to 1995, as sulfur emissions are reduced. Both future scenarios project decreasing residential emissions. Yet transport emissions are expected to remain significant and thus become the dominant source of warming aerosols in the future. Aerosol pollution is projected to shift southward relative to the present, as the current industrialized regions generally reduce emissions and tropical and southern hemispheric regions continue to develop. Similar to these SRES scenarios, IIASA scenarios project a decline in residential emissions; however IIASA is more optimistic about transport sector emissions reductions. We will conduct present-day climate experiments, including aerosol direct and indirect effects, to study impacts of power and transport sectors on climate features such as air temperature and hydrologic cycle.

  6. Student experience of a scenario-centred curriculum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-06-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and laboratory classes and to develop generic skills including team working and communication. Student experience of the first two years the old and new curricula were evaluated using a modified Course Experience Questionnaire. The results showed that students on the new programme were motivated by the scenarios and perceived better generic skills development, but had a lower perception of teaching quality and the development of design skills. The results of the survey support the implementation new curriculum but highlight the importance of strong integration between conventional teaching and scenarios, and the challenges of adapting teaching styles to suit.

  7. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... applicable as part of current practices. Proprietary models that account for the modeling conditions may be... alternative release scenarios: (1) The five-year accident history provided in § 68.42; and (2)...

  8. 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

  9. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Science Inventory

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  10. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  11. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

    1990-12-31

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees.

  12. War 2010: The Emergence of the Wild Card Scenario.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    confronting military professionals presented with prophecy-based predictions and the adequacy of the threat-based analysis system to prepare the US armed forces for future conflict in a wild card scenario.

  13. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  14. Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

    2010-05-01

    Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi

  15. Alternative World Scenarios for a New Order of Nations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-01-01

    and Air and Space Defense Forces ( ASDF ). SCENARIO BRAVO: U.S. World Peacekeeper. Scenario BRAVO describes a competitive world of economic trade markets...equipment and weapons. The warfighting GDF, Land Defense Forces (LDF), Sea Defense Forces (SDF), and Air and Space Defense Forces ( ASDF ), overall, are...since they are outmoded and of mid 20th century vintage. The remainder are high-tech and staffed by well-trained career SDF personnel. The ASDF (Air

  16. Developing Effective Case Scenarios for Interprofessional Electronic Health Record Research.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Kristie; Courtney, Karen L; Frisch, Noreen

    2017-01-01

    In the last decade, there have been numerous calls for research in interprofessional communication and documentation. Some of the limitations of research in this area have been proprietary user interfaces that may not be generalizable and impact varying adoption rates of electronic documentation among different health disciplines. In order to address these concerns, researchers need to create standardized case scenarios as research instruments. This paper outlines the process for developing a case scenario instrument for use in interprofessional electronic documentation research.

  17. Technical Feasibility Assessment of Lunar Base Mission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magelssen, Trygve ``Spike''; Sadeh, Eligar

    2005-02-01

    Investigation of the literature pertaining to lunar base (LB) missions and the technologies required for LB development has revealed an information gap that hinders technical feasibility assessment. This information gap is the absence of technical readiness levels (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) and information pertaining to the criticality of the critical enabling technologies (CETs) that enable mission success. TRL is a means of identifying technical readiness stages of a technology. Criticality is defined as the level of influence the CET has on the mission scenario. The hypothesis of this research study is that technical feasibility is a function of technical readiness and technical readiness is a function of criticality. A newly developed research analysis method is used to identify the technical feasibility of LB mission scenarios. A Delphi is used to ascertain technical readiness levels and CET criticality-to-mission. The research analysis method is applied to the Delphi results to determine the technical feasibility of the LB mission scenarios that include: observatory, science research, lunar settlement, space exploration gateway, space resource utilization, and space tourism. The CETs identified encompasses four major system level technologies of: transportation, life support, structures, and power systems. Results of the technical feasibility assessment show the observatory and science research LB mission scenarios to be more technical ready out of all the scenarios, but all mission scenarios are in very close proximity to each other in regard to criticality and TRL and no one mission scenario stands out as being absolutely more technically ready than any of the other scenarios. What is significant and of value are the Delphi results concerning CET criticality-to-mission and the TRL values evidenced in the Tables that can be used by anyone assessing the technical feasibility of LB missions.

  18. Scenario aggregation for supply chain quantity-flexibility contract

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Gitae; Wu, Chih-Hang

    2013-11-01

    In this research, we apply a scenario aggregation approach to solving the supply chain contract model formulated by two-stage stochastic programming problem. The supply chain contract can achieve the coordination between the buyer and the supplier. We formulate the stochastic programming model for a quantity-flexibility contract. The scenario aggregation method called the progressive hedging method is used to solve this problem. Experimental results show the convergence behaviour of the algorithm and the sensitivity of parameters.

  19. Two scenarios for avalanche dynamics in inclined granular layers.

    PubMed

    Börzsönyi, Tamás; Halsey, Thomas C; Ecke, Robert E

    2005-05-27

    We report experimental measurements of avalanche behavior of thin granular layers on an inclined plane for low volume flow rate. The dynamical properties of avalanches were quantitatively and qualitatively different for smooth glass beads compared to irregular granular materials such as sand. Two scenarios for granular avalanches on an incline are identified, and a theoretical explanation for these different scenarios is developed based on a depth-averaged approach that takes into account the differing rheologies of the granular materials.

  20. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-04-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissios of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a different downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities. Air quality trends in the megacities of the developing world are projected to be similar to observed trends in developed world megacities over the last few decades. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results. Future work should concentrate on the creation of spatially explicit scenarios of urban development for use in global chemical transport models.

  1. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-05-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissions of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due to lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a simpler downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario, which results in higher emissions from megacities. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities, with mixing ratios of background ozone projected to play an increasing role in megacity air quality throughout the 21st century. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results; future generations of emissions scenarios should include spatially explicit representations or urban development suitable for air quality studies using global chemical transport models.

  2. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-01-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissios of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP (''Representative Concentration Pathway'') emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18 and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a different downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities. Air quality trends in the megacities of the developing world are projected to be similar to observed trends in developed world megacities over the last few decades. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results. Future work should concentrate on the creation of spatially explicit scenarios of urban development for use in global chemical transport models.

  3. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbook (EFH) on how to select data from the EFH to assess childhood exposures. The scenarios presented in this report promote the use of the standard set of age groups recommended by the U.S. EPA in the report entitled Guidance on Selecting Age Groups for Monitoring and Assessing Childhood Exposures to Environmental Contaminants (U.S. EPA 2005). The purpose of the Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples Report is to outline scenarios for various child-specific exposure pathways and to demonstrate how data from the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2011) may be applied for estimating exposures. The handbook provides data on drinking water consumption, soil ingestion, mouthing behavior, inhalation rates, dermal factors including skin area and soil adherence factors, consumption of fruits and vegetables, fish, meats, dairy products, homegrown foods, human milk, activity patterns, body weight, and consumer products. The example scenarios presented here have been selected to best demonstrate the use of the various key data sets in the Child-Specific Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2008a), and represent commonly encountered exposure pathways. An exhausti

  4. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

  5. Modeling framework for exploring emission impacts of alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loughlin, D. H.; Benjey, W. G.; Nolte, C. G.

    2010-11-01

    This article presents an approach for creating anthropogenic emission scenarios that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The approach focuses on energy production and use since these are principal sources of air pollution. We use the MARKAL model to characterize alternative realizations of the US energy system through 2050. Emission growth factors are calculated for major energy system categories using MARKAL, while growth factors from non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. The SMOKE model uses these factors to grow a base-year 2002 inventory to future years through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios: Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 applies a hypothetical policy that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy system. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role in investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality by the U.S. EPA and others.

  6. What roles for viruses in origin of life scenarios?

    PubMed

    Kostyrka, Gladys

    2016-10-01

    Important roles in origin of life (OL) scenarios have been and still are attributed to viruses. Yet the strict dependence of viruses on cells for their multiplication has been widely acknowledged since the first decades of the 20th century. How could viruses play critical roles in the OL if life relies on cellular organization and if viruses are defined as parasites of cells? In other words, how could viruses play a role in the emergence of cellular life if the existence of cells is a prerequisite for the existence of viruses? This paper investigates this issue and describes past and current OL scenarios conferring viruses with important roles, thereby completing the work of historian of science and physician Scott Podolsky who identified three major roles of viruses in past OL scenarios. Some objections raised by present OL scenarios conferring viruses with an important role are discussed. I argue that disagreements concerning the roles of viruses in OL scenarios stem from the different concepts of life and of virus scientists defend. Investigating the roles of viruses in OL scenarios not only helps identifying different ways to define life in the context of OL theorizing. It also offers the opportunity to better understand how viruses could be conceptualized. The relevance of the replication-first versus metabolism-first dichotomy in OL theorizing is briefly discussed.

  7. Scenario Development Process at the Vertical Motion Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reardon, Scott E.; Beard, Steven D.; Lewis, Emily

    2017-01-01

    There has been a significant effort within the simulation community to standardize many aspects of flight simulation. More recently, an effort has begun to develop a formal scenario definition language for aviation. A working group within the AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has been created to develop a standard aviation scenario definition language, though much of the initial effort has been tailored to training simulators. Research and development (R&D) simulators, like the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), and training simulators have different missions and thus have different scenario requirements. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the unique tasks and scenario elements used at the VMS so they may be captured by scenario standardization efforts. The VMS most often performs handling qualities studies and transfer of training studies. Three representative handling qualities simulation studies and two transfer of training simulation studies are described in this paper. Unique scenario elements discussed in this paper included special out-the-window (OTW) targets and environmental conditions, motion system parameters, active inceptor parameters, and configurable vehicle math model parameters.

  8. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  9. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  10. Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two

  11. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  12. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  13. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  14. Olive production systems on sloping land: prospects and scenarios.

    PubMed

    de Graaff, Jan; Duran Zuazo, Victor-Hugo; Jones, Nádia; Fleskens, Luuk

    2008-11-01

    The ultimate objective of the EU Olivero project was to improve the quality of life of the rural population and to assure the sustainable use of the natural resources of land and water in the sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) areas in Southern Europe. One specific objective was to develop, with end-users, alternative future scenarios for olive orchards in the five Olivero target areas. This paper discusses the development of these scenarios, and their socio-economic and environmental effects. After presenting the different production systems (SMOPS) and their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, a general overview is given of the medium- and long-term prospects. These have been validated by experts from the olive sector and foresee changes towards abandonment, intensification and organic production. On balance, the changes could lead to lower production of some target areas in future. An analysis of major external factors affecting the future development of SMOPS indicates there will be labour shortages and increased wage rates, reduced subsidies and constant or rising olive oil prices. On the basis of these assumptions, four future scenarios are developed for the five target areas, with the help of a Linear Programming simulation model. The results are presented for two target areas. For the Trás-os-Montes target area in Portugal, three of the four tested scenarios point to a high level of abandonment, while in the most positive scenario the areas under semi-intensive low input and organic SMOPS increase. In the Granada and Jaen target area in Spain, all scenarios hint at intensification, and only the orchards on the steepest slopes are likely to be abandoned. The direction and extent of environmental effects (erosion, fire risk, pollution, water use and biodiversity) differ per scenario, as do the extent of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures.

  15. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of

  16. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the

  17. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    PubMed Central

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  18. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    PubMed

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  19. Bioretention function under climate change scenarios in North Carolina, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hathaway, J. M.; Brown, R. A.; Fu, J. S.; Hunt, W. F.

    2014-11-01

    The effect of climate change on stormwater controls is largely unknown. Evaluating such effects is important for understanding how well resiliency can be built into urban watersheds by implementing these systems. Bioretention areas with varied media depths, in situ soil types, drainage configurations, and surface infiltration capabilities have previously been monitored, modelled, and calibrated using the continuous simulation model, DRAINMOD. In this study, data from downscaled climate projections for 2055 through 2058 were utilized in these models to evaluate changes in system hydrologic function under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The results were compared to those generated using a “Base” scenario of observed data from 2001 to 2004. The results showed a modest change in the overall water balance of the system. In particular, the frequency and magnitude of overflow from the systems substantially increased under the climate change scenarios. As this represents an increase in the amount of uncontrolled, untreated runoff from the contributing watersheds, it is of particular concern. Further modelling showed that between 9.0 and 31.0 cm of additional storage would be required under the climate change scenarios to restrict annual overflow to that of the base scenario. Bioretention surface storage volume and infiltration rate appeared important in determining a system's ability to cope with increased yearly rainfall and higher rainfall magnitudes. As climate change effects vary based on location, similar studies should be performed in other locations to determine localized effects on stormwater controls.

  20. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

    This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

  1. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  2. Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page

    2011-09-08

    Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.

  3. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Star, Jonathan; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Bryan, Alexander; Babson, Amanda; Cole-Will, Rebecca; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2016-01-01

    This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

  4. A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires.The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be

  5. Oil spill response scenarios for remote arctic environments. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schulze, R.H.; Grosskopf, W.G.; Cox, J.C.; Schultz, L.A.

    1982-03-01

    Special problems occur during oil spill cleanup in remote inland areas in cold climates. In Alaska these problems result from the harsh climate, the unusual terrain features, and the special problems of spills along swift rivers. The analysis begins with a description of the environmental conditions that occur in Alaska that affect oil spill behavior and oil spill cleanup. The study then describes four spill scenarios in remote areas giving engineering details of the mechanics of the spill movement and the cleanup effort. One scenario covers a winter blowout of a well on the north slope tundra. The next involves a Trans-Alaska Pipeline spill. The fourth scenario involves a fuel tank truck spill into a sensitive sport fishing stream. The study describes the impact of these spills on the environment. Further, it provides a numerical evaluation of the effectiveness of the spill response effort and the cost effectiveness of three incremental levels of spill response for the cleanup effort.

  6. Scenarios for sLHC and vLHC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scandale, W.; Zimmermann, F.

    2008-03-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles and evolution of the statistical error halving time call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the EU CARE-HHH network, two scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by a factor 10, to 10 cms ("sLHC"). Both scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges differ substantially. In either scenario luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. Longer-term R&D efforts are devoted to a higher-energy hadron collider ("vLHC"), which could be realized on a green field or as a later and more radical LHC upgrade.

  7. Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-Tolerant Diagnosis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    James, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-tolerant Diagnostics (HSG) is an algorithm being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial- intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. By incorporating prognostic capabilities along with advanced diagnostic capabilities, these developments hold promise to increase the safety and affordability of the affected engineering systems by making it possible to obtain timely and accurate information on the statuses of the systems and predicting impending failures well in advance. The HSG is a specific instance of a hypothetical- scenario generator that implements an innovative approach for performing diagnostic reasoning when data are missing. The special purpose served by the HSG is to (1) look for all possible ways in which the present state of the engineering system can be mapped with respect to a given model and (2) generate a prioritized set of future possible states and the scenarios of which they are parts.

  8. Simulation of Lunar Surface Communications Network Exploration Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linsky, Thomas W.; Bhasin, Kul B.; White, Alex; Palangala, Srihari

    2006-01-01

    Simulations and modeling of surface-based communications networks provides a rapid and cost effective means of requirement analysis, protocol assessments, and tradeoff studies. Robust testing in especially important for exploration systems, where the cost of deployment is high and systems cannot be easily replaced or repaired. However, simulation of the envisioned exploration networks cannot be achieved using commercial off the shelf network simulation software. Models for the nonstandard, non-COTS protocols used aboard space systems are not readily available. This paper will address the simulation of realistic scenarios representative of the activities which will take place on the surface of the Moon, including selection of candidate network architectures, and the development of an integrated simulation tool using OPNET modeler capable of faithfully modeling those communications scenarios in the variable delay, dynamic surface environments. Scenarios for exploration missions, OPNET development, limitations, and simulations results will be provided and discussed.

  9. Patient management scenario: a framework for clinical decision and prognosis.

    PubMed

    Gospodarowicz, Mary; O'Sullivan, Brian

    2003-01-01

    The depiction of prognosis is one of the main activities and a mainstay in medical practice. In cancer, as in other diseases, the prognosis differs for a variety of situations and evolves with time and with medical interventions. Although most commonly described at diagnosis, prognosis may be defined at any time during the course of the disease and for any endpoint including response to therapy, failure of treatment, survival, or preservation of function, and so forth. To facilitate the accurate portrayal of the future, the prognosis should be defined within a specific setting, referred to as a 'management scenario'. In the concept of a management scenario, the prognosis is defined using systematically considered prognostic factors, interventions and the outcome of interest. A deliberate and careful determination of prognosis is essential to clinical decision making and patient care. We illustrate the use of the concept of management scenario in several clinical examples.

  10. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  11. Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    English, J. M.; Liu, C. Y.; Smith, J. L.; Yin, A. K. K.; Pan, G. A.; Ayati, M. B.; Gyamfi, M.; Arabzadah, M. R.

    1978-01-01

    A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

  12. A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keith, David W.; MacMartin, Douglas G.

    2015-03-01

    The risks and benefits of solar geoengineering, or solar radiation management (SRM), depend on assumptions about its implementation. Claims that SRM will reduce precipitation, increase ocean acidification or deplete stratospheric ozone, or that it must be continued forever once started, are not inherent features of SRM; rather, they are features of common scenarios for its implementation. Most analyses assume, for example, that SRM would be used to stop the increase in global temperature or restore temperature to pre-industrial values. We argue that these are poor scenario choices on which to base policy-relevant judgements about SRM. As a basis for further analysis, we provide a scenario that is temporary in that its end point is zero SRM, is moderate in that it offsets only half of the growth in anthropogenic climate forcing and is responsive in that it recognizes that the amount of SRM will be adjusted in light of new information.

  13. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    SciTech Connect

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  14. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures.

  15. A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2017-02-16

    A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

  16. Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.

    2001-06-05

    A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.

  17. A Methodology For Flood Vulnerability Analysis In Complex Flood Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M. L. V.; Dottori, F.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood vulnerability is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood vulnerability. The methodology is based on a GIS-based index, which considers local topography, terrain roughness and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce the diffusive behaviour of floodplain flow. The methodology synthetizes the spatial distribution of index values into maps and curves, used to represent the vulnerability in the area of interest. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The components of the methodology are applied and tested in two floodplain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood vulnerability variables and processes.

  18. Surface Buildup Scenarios and Outpost Architectures for Lunar Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazanek, Daniel D.; Troutman, Patrick A.; Culbert, Christopher J.; Leonard, Matthew J.; Spexarth, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    The Constellation Program Architecture Team and the Lunar Surface Systems Project Office have developed an initial set of lunar surface buildup scenarios and associated polar outpost architectures, along with preliminary supporting element and system designs in support of NASA's Exploration Strategy. The surface scenarios are structured in such a way that outpost assembly can be suspended at any time to accommodate delivery contingencies or changes in mission emphasis. The modular nature of the architectures mitigates the impact of the loss of any one element and enhances the ability of international and commercial partners to contribute elements and systems. Additionally, the core lunar surface system technologies and outpost operations concepts are applicable to future Mars exploration. These buildup scenarios provide a point of departure for future trades and assessments of alternative architectures and surface elements.

  19. Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

  20. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2013-01-01

    The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. PMID:24452253

  1. Beyond Bell's Theorem II: Scenarios with Arbitrary Causal Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    It has recently been found that Bell scenarios are only a small subclass of interesting setups for studying the non-classical features of quantum theory within spacetime. We find that it is possible to talk about classical correlations, quantum correlations and other kinds of correlations on any directed acyclic graph, and this captures various extensions of Bell scenarios that have been considered in the literature. From a conceptual point of view, the main feature of our approach is its high level of unification: while the notions of source, choice of setting and measurement all play seemingly different roles in a Bell scenario, our formalism shows that they are all instances of the same concept of "event". Our work can also be understood as a contribution to the subject of causal inference with latent variables. Among other things, we introduce hidden Bayesian networks as a generalization of hidden Markov models.

  2. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Geneletti, Davide

    2012-01-15

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

  3. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU.

  4. Generic tsunami scenarios for disasters and early warning preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillande, Richard; Gardi, Annalisa; Valencia, Nathalia; Salaün, Tugdual

    2010-05-01

    The implementation of the tsunami early warning systems in the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean regions will occur in countries with no preparedness and very little knowledge of potentially affected coastal zones by the various tsunami sources. The final link to coastal communities will be sirens to distribute in the concerned areas. The SCHEMA project aims at elaboration of a generic method to consider various parameters of a particular tsunami scenario. A scenario corresponds to a specific source with a given magnitude or intensity. Since we do not consider only the remote sources with possibilities of warning, local earthquake and submarine landslides are also translated in scenarios to allow the civil protections, municipalities and local stakeholders to assess cases with no real warning possibility, where life will be saved by self evacuation in nearby shelter areas or buildings. The specific temporal dimension of tsunami phenomenon is considered. Oceanic propagation time, expected duration of dangerous waves and wavelength are taken into account with their level of uncertainties. Scenarios are presented by maps and layouts with various information: inundation extension, submersion depth, receding sea limit, currents velocity or modulus of flow, modeled damage level to buildings, affected networks and lifelines. Variable dimensions such as residing or working population, by hour of the day and by season are also considered. Secondary vulnerability factors which may increase damage level to buildings are added (potentially floating objects which may turn into projectiles). The potential evacuation routes and obstacles are represented to support installation of warning networks and definition of shelters as well as evacuation routes. The scenarios are calculated using accurate digital bathymetric and topographic model with less than 10 m ground resolution allowing a very detailed mapping. This accuracy is especially important for scenarios with moderate waves for

  5. Evidence that histidine forms a coordination bond to the A(0A) and A(0B) chlorophylls and a second H-bond to the A(1A) and A(1B) phylloquinones in M688H(PsaA) and M668H(PsaB) variants of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803.

    PubMed

    Sun, Junlei; Hao, Sijie; Radle, Matthew; Xu, Wu; Shelaev, Ivan; Nadtochenko, Victor; Shuvalov, Vladimir; Semenov, Alexey; Gordon, Heather; van der Est, Art; Golbeck, John H

    2014-08-01

    The axial ligands of the acceptor chlorophylls, A(0A) and A(0B), in Photosystem I are the Met sulfur atoms of M688(PsaA) and M668(PsaB). To determine the role of the Met, His variants were generated in Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. Molecular dynamics simulations on M688H(PsaA) show that there exist low energy conformations with the His coordinated to A(0A) and possibly H-bonded to A(1A). Transient EPR studies on M688H(PsaA) indicate a more symmetrical electron spin distribution in the A(1A) phyllosemiquinone ring consistent with the presence of an H-bond to the C1 carbonyl. Ultrafast optical studies on the variants show that the 150fs charge separation between P₇₀₀ and A(0) remains unaffected. Studies on the ns timescale show that 57% of the electrons are transferred from A(0A)(-) to A(1A) in M688H(PsaA) and 48% from A(0B)(-) to A(1B) in M668H(PsaB); the remainder recombine with P₇₀₀(+) with 1/e times of 25ns and 37ns, respectively. Those electrons that reach A(1A) and A(1B) in the branch carrying the mutation are not transferred to FX, but recombine with P₇₀₀(+) with 1/e times of ~15μs and ~5μs, respectively. Hence, the His is coordinated to A0 in all populations, but in a second population, the His may be additionally H-bonded to A(1). Electron transfer from A(0) to A(1) occurs only in the latter, but the higher redox potentials of A(0) and A(1) as a result of the stronger coordination bond to A(0) and the proposed second H-bond to A(1) preclude electron transfer to the Fe/S clusters.

  6. Time parallelization of advanced operation scenario simulations of ITER plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Samaddar, D.; Casper, T. A.; Kim, S. H.; Berry, Lee A; Elwasif, Wael R; Batchelor, Donald B; Houlberg, Wayne A

    2013-01-01

    This work demonstrates that simulations of advanced burning plasma operation scenarios can be successfully parallelized in time using the parareal algorithm. CORSICA - an advanced operation scenario code for tokamak plasmas is used as a test case. This is a unique application since the parareal algorithm has so far been applied to relatively much simpler systems except for the case of turbulence. In the present application, a computational gain of an order of magnitude has been achieved which is extremely promising. A successful implementation of the Parareal algorithm to codes like CORSICA ushers in the possibility of time efficient simulations of ITER plasmas.

  7. On-orbit operational scenarios, tools and techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jennings, Jerry L.; Walker, James

    1991-01-01

    This paper concentrates on methods and techniques used to develop operational scenarios for orbital missions, including development of models to analyze alternatives, modification of tools and refinement of techniques for future missions. Many of these tools and techniques have been derived from previous tools, techniques and experience from the Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) program. Results from use of these tools show the current Cargo Transfer Vehicle nominal mission scenario, with 95 discrete events defined for the CTV mission from the NLS Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV) to Space Station Freedom (SSF).

  8. Climate change increases riverine carbon outgassing while export to the ocean remains uncertain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langerwisch, F.; Walz, A.; Rammig, A.; Tietjen, B.; Thonicke, K.; Cramer, W.

    2015-08-01

    Carbon fluxes in the Amazon Basin are considerably influenced by annual flooding during which terrigenous organic material is imported to the river. This regular interaction affects carbon pools within the riverine system, terrestrial carbon, and carbon exported to the ocean and released to the atmosphere. The processes of generation, conversion, and transport of organic carbon in this coupled terrigenous-riverine system strongly interact and are climate-sensitive, yet their response to climate change is still largely unknown. To quantify climate change effects on carbon pools and on carbon fluxes within the river and to the ocean and the atmosphere, we developed the riverine carbon model RivCM, which is directly coupled to the well-established dynamic vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL. We show here that RivCM successfully reproduces observed values in exported carbon and riverine carbon concentration. We evaluate future changes in riverine carbon by applying RivCM for climate forcing from five climate models and three CO2 emission scenarios (SRES). We find that climate change causes a doubling of riverine organic carbon in the Southern and Western basin while reducing it by 20 % in the eastern and northern parts. In contrast, the amount of riverine inorganic carbon shows a 2- to 3-fold increase in the entire basin, independent of the SRES scenario. The export of carbon to the atmosphere increases as well with an average of about 30 %. In contrast, changes in future export of organic carbon to the Atlantic Ocean depend on the SRES scenario and are projected to either decrease by about 8.9 % (SRES A1B) or increase by about 9.1 % (SRES A2). Such changes in the terrigenous-riverine system could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon Basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Changes in the riverine carbon could lead to a shift in the riverine nutrient supply and pH, while changes in the exported carbon to the ocean leads to changes in

  9. A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duveiller, G.; Donatelli, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Zucchini, A.; Nelson, R.; Baruth, B.

    2017-02-01

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure

  10. Freshwater Availability in the Brahmaputra River Basin Under Projected Climate and Land Use Land Cover Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pervez, M. S.; Henebry, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to evaluate sensitivities and patterns in freshwater availability due to projected climate and land use changes in the Brahmaputra basin. The daily observed discharge at Bahadurabad station in Bangladesh was used to calibrate the model and analyze uncertainties with SUFI-II algorithm for 1988-1997, and to validate the model for 1998-2004. The R2, NS, and biases were, respectively, 0.85, 0.85, and -3.2% during calibration, and 0.89, 0.88, and -4.4% during validation for basinwide simulations of monthly streamflow. The sensitivities and impacts of projected climate and land use changes on basin hydrological components were simulated and analyzed relative to a baseline scenario of 1988-2004. Sensitivity analysis identified a doubling of CO2 concentration to 660 ppm caused average annual evapotranspiration (ET) to decrease by 12%, resulting in increases in water yield by 5%, streamflow by 6%, and groundwater recharge by 8%. With an increase in temperature, annual average ET was predicted to increase, while responses of water yield and streamflow varied by season. An increase in precipitation caused proportional increases in water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, but led to only minor impacts on ET. Annual average water yield, soil water content, ET, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were predicted to increase with higher seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change projections for the A1B and A2 scenarios generated from downscaled CGCM3.1 and IMAGE, respectively. Water yield, soil water content, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were predicted to increase with a strong increasing trend during August to October, indicating exacerbated flood potential, while during May to July, the hydrological components-except soil water content-were predicted to decrease with a strong decreasing trend, indicating enhanced drought potential throughout the 21st century. Overall, results indicated that the

  11. Projection of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution loads for a forest dominant dam watershed by reflecting future vegetation canopy in a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model.

    PubMed

    Park, Min J; Park, Jong Y; Shin, Hyung J; Lee, Mi S; Park, Geun A; Jung, In K; Kim, Seong J

    2010-01-01

    This study is to assess the future impact of climate change on hydrological behavior considering future vegetation canopy prediction and its propagation to nonpoint source pollution (NPS) loads. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used for the assessment. For a forest dominant ChungjuDam watershed of South Korea, the MIROC3.2hires climate data of SRES A1B and B1 scenarios were adopted and downscaled for the watershed. The future vegetation canopy information was projected by the monthly relationship between Terra MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LAI (Leaf Area Index) and temperature. The future predicted LAI increased up to 1.9 in 2080s April and October because of the temperature increase 3.6 degrees C and 5.3 degrees C respectively. By reflecting the future LAI changes, the future estimated percent changes of maximum annual dam inflow, SS, T-N, and T-P were + 42.5% in 2080s A1B,-35.6% in 2020s A1B,+73.7% in 2080s A1B and-21.0% in 2080s B1 scenario respectively. The increase of T-N load was from the increase of subsurface lateral flows and the groundwater recharges by the future rainfall increase. The decrease of T-P load was by decrease of sediment load during wet days because the effect of LAI increase is greater than the increase of rainfall.

  12. Impacts potentiels d'un changement climatique sur le pergelisol dans le nord canadien

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obretin, Calin

    This thesis explores the potential impacts of a climate change due to the greenhouse gases on the state and the evolution of the permafrost in the Canadian North. The permafrost represents the half of the Canadian national territory and a change of its current state will echo in all spheres of activity, on the biosphere and on the environment generally. In spite of the evident importance of the subject, there is no precise idea as to how the permafrost will react to the climate change and to what extent the frozen layer will be disrupted. This thesis investigates this problem by using a methodological approach inspired by the Canadian model on the evolution of permafrost (TTOP) coupled with a theoretical approach based on the theory of the complex neuronal systems. The general objective of this thesis is to improve the Canadian model of evolution of permafrost (TTOP-Temperature one the Top Of Permafrost) created by Smith and Riseborough in 1996, its structure of computation, spatial resolution and to determine the state of the permafrost in the study area between 2010 and 2100. The study zone is situated in the Mackenzie Basin (N-W.T) on a north-south transect of 1440 by 720 km. The first objective of the research is to derive maps of the annual values of temperature on the top of the permafrost from 2010 to 2100 by using an improved dynamic model of the evolution of permafrost (TTOP-A). Thereafter, these values are compared with those obtained by Smith and Riseborough (1996). The values of the evolution of air temperature for this period are supplied by the climatic scenarios CGCM32 SRES A1B, CGCM3 SRES A2 and CGCM3 SRES B1. Secondly, this thesis has as an objective the production of the maps of the thickness of permafrost for 2100 with a spatial resolution of 25 km. More exactly, we determine the evolution of the values of thickness of permafrost for the three climatic scenarios mentioned above. Furthermore, the study proposes: i) a new method for downscaling of

  13. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  14. Impacts of the production and consumption of biofuels on stratospheric ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revell, Laura E.; Bodeker, Greg E.; Huck, Petra E.; Williamson, Bryce E.

    2012-05-01

    Biofuels are becoming increasingly popular sources of renewable energy as economic pressures and environmental consequences encourage the use of alternatives to fossil fuels. However, growing crops destined for use as biofuels incurs large N2O emissions associated with the use of nitrogen-based fertilizers. Besides being a greenhouse gas, N2O is also the primary source of stratospheric NOx (NO + NO2) which leads to stratospheric ozone depletion. In this paper, the potential effects on the ozone layer of a large-scale shift away from fossil fuel use to biofuels consumption over the 21st century are examined. Under such a scenario, global-mean column ozone decreases by 2.6 DU between 2010 and 2100 in contrast to a 0.7 DU decrease under a control simulation (the IPCC SRES B1 scenario for greenhouse gases) and a 9.1 DU increase under the more commonly used SRES A1B scenario. Two factors cause the decrease in ozone in the biofuels simulation: 1) large N2O emissions lead to faster rates of the ozone-depleting NOx cycles and; 2) reduced CO2 emissions (due to less fossil fuel burning) lead to relatively less stratospheric cooling over the 21st century, which decreases ozone abundances. Reducing CO2 emissions while neglecting to reduce N2O emissions could therefore be damaging to the ozone layer.

  15. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  16. Comparative CFD simulations of a hydrogen fire scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nobili, M.; Caruso, G.

    2017-01-01

    Hydrogen leakage and fire ignition and propagation are safety concerns in several industrial plants. In a nuclear fusion power plants the separation of hydrogen and tritium takes place in different steps, among which one or more electrolyzers are foreseen. A fire scenario could take place in case of leakage of hydrogen. In such cases, it is important to prevent the spreading of the fire to adjacent rooms and, at the same time, to withstand the pressure load on walls, to avoid radioactivity release in the surrounding environment. A preliminary study has been carried out with the aim of comparing CFD tools for fire scenario simulations involving hydrogen release. Results have been obtained comparing two codes: ANSYS Fluent© and FDS. The two codes have been compared both for hydrogen dispersion and hydrogen fire in a confined environment. The first scenario is aimed to obtaining of volume fraction 3D maps for the evaluation of the different diffusion/transport models. In the second scenario, characterized by a double-ended guillotine break, the fire is supposed to be ignited at the same time of the impact. Simulations have been carried out for the first 60 seconds. Hydrogen concentration, temperature and pressure fields are compared and discussed.

  17. Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Aloysius, Noel; Arnold, Jeffrey; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Read, Jennifer; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; White, Michael; Yen, Haw

    2016-01-01

    Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets. 

  18. Improvisation of Real-Life Scenarios through Intercultural Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okten, Celile Eren; Griffin, Banu Ozer

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes tasks based on real-life scenarios, which triggered reflective thinking, verbalization, and writing, leading to the creation of natural dialogues rather than artificial, dull monologues. One of the main aims of this approach is to engage students in a dynamic process of both learning about multicultural participants and…

  19. Collaborative Concept Mapping Activities in a Classroom Scenario

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elorriaga, J. A.; Arruarte, A.; Calvo, I.; Larrañaga, M.; Rueda, U.; Herrán, E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to test collaborative concept mapping activities using computers in a classroom scenario and to evaluate the possibilities that Elkar-CM offers for collaboratively learning non-technical topics. Elkar-CM is a multi-lingual and multi-media software program designed for drawing concept maps (CMs) collaboratively. Concept…

  20. New Scenarios for Audience Response Systems in University Lectures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schön, Daniel; Kopf, Stephan; Klinger, Melanie; Guthier, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Mobile devices like smartphones and tablet PCs are widely used among university students and can be used for audience response systems (clicker systems) to improve teaching. Modern implementations of these systems are no longer limited to plain multiple-choice questions, but enable the lecturers to perform a variety of teaching scenarios. We…

  1. Scenario-Based Training at the F.B.I.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitcomb, Chris

    1999-01-01

    The 16-week training program offered by the FBI Academy for all new agents is a scenario-based curriculum that includes a range of subjects from the rules of evidence to defensive tactics and provides agents with a clear understanding of how to conduct a full investigation from start to finish. (JOW)

  2. [The body as the scenario for social vulnerability regarding health].

    PubMed

    Ortega-Bolaños, Jesús A; Bula-Escobar, Jorge I

    2012-10-01

    Theoretical reflection concerning the human body within a scenario of social healthcare practices recognizes its nature through ontological dimensions for defining our finiteness and facticity in a world where nobody experiences their own birth or death but rather experiences such events through others. Considering health as an overall process called existence, being conscious of one's own body in terms of dynamic states of health and disease, is related to scenarios where the body has played a central role in the existential experience of the culture which it has built and in which it has been living, as well as in the relationship of knowledge with how power is exercised. Relationships between knowledge, power, resistance and the action of bodies are scenarios concerning social vulnerability regarding health. We wish to raise awareness concerning the relationship between bodies and social vulnerability regarding health as an emergent scenario for promoting discussion dealing with claiming the right to health and the chances of it being positively affected by public health policy from a trans-sector response and a community-based response proposed by Colombian society and culture.

  3. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  4. Some Methods for Scenario Analysis in Defence Strategic Planning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Scenarios are an important tool in the strategic planning process, and are increasingly used in both the Defence and business world. This paper...illustrated with small examples. We also demonstrate a single, flexible approach to combining these methods using a typical Defence strategic planning problem

  5. Phenomenology of hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy

    SciTech Connect

    Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Das, Subinoy E-mail: subinoy@nyu.edu

    2008-10-15

    We study the phenomenology of hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy, where in addition to a so-called mass-varying neutrino (MaVaN) sector a cosmological constant (from a false vacuum) is driving the accelerated expansion of the universe today. For general power law potentials we calculate the effective equation of state parameter w{sub eff}(z) in terms of the neutrino mass scale. Due to the interaction of the dark energy field ('acceleron') with the neutrino sector, w{sub eff}(z) is predicted to become smaller than -1 for z>0, which could be tested in future cosmological observations. For the scenarios considered, the neutrino mass scale additionally determines which fraction of the dark energy is dynamical, and which originates from the 'cosmological-constant-like' vacuum energy of the false vacuum. On the other hand, the field value of the 'acceleron' field today as well as the masses of the right-handed neutrinos, which appear in the seesaw-type mechanism for small neutrino masses, are not fixed. This, in principle, allows us to realize hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy with a 'high-scale' seesaw where the right-handed neutrino masses are close to the GUT scale. We also comment on how MaVaN hybrid scenarios with 'high-scale' seesaw might help to resolve stability problems of dark energy models with non-relativistic neutrinos.

  6. Identifying regions vulnerable to habitat degradation under future irrigation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Acuña, Vicenç

    2016-11-01

    The loss and degradation of natural habitats is a primary cause of biodiversity decline. The increasing impacts of climate and land use change affect water availability, ultimately decreasing agricultural production. Areas devoted to irrigation have been increased to compensate this reduction, causing habitat and biodiversity losses, especially in regions undergoing severe water stress. These effects might intensify under global change, probably contributing to a decrease in habitat quality. We selected four European river basins across a gradient of water scarcity and irrigation agriculture. The habitat quality in the basins was assessed as a function of habitat suitability and threats under current and future global change scenarios of irrigation. Results revealed that the most threatened regions under future scenarios of global change were among those suffering of water scarcity and with bigger areas devoted to irrigation. Loss of habitat quality reached 10% in terrestrial and 25% in aquatic ecosystems under climate change scenarios involving drier conditions. The aquatic habitats were the most degraded in all scenarios, since they were affected by threats from both the terrestrial and the aquatic parts of the basin. By identifying in advance the regions most vulnerable to habitat and biodiversity loss, our approach can assist decision makers in deciding the conservation actions to be prioritized for mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change, particularly front the development of irrigation plans.

  7. The Role of Perpetrator Motivation in Two Crime Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sizemore, O. J.

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the…

  8. Significance and scenarios of lunar and planetary exploration missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwata, Tsutomu; Oota, Kazuo

    1992-08-01

    Significance of moon and planet exploitation and their utilization are described. Topics discussed include: search for the truth concerning the universe; broadening the sphere of human activity; solving energy; resource; environmental problems; scenarios for lunar and Mars missions; and interrelationship between moon and planet exploitation technologies. This report is represented in viewgraphs only.

  9. Drivers and Outcomes of Scenario Planning: A Canonical Correlation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The paper's aim is to report a research study on the mediator and outcome variable sets in scenario planning. Design/methodology/approach: This is a cannonical correlation analysis (CCA) Findings Two sets of variables; one as a predictor set that explained a significant amount of variability in the second, or outcome set of variables were…

  10. Chlorofluorocarbon production scenarios: possible changes to stratospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Tarp, R.L.; Nold, A.; Wood, W.P.

    1981-01-01

    As one aspect of the regulatory process, the Environmental Protection Agency has derived a series of scenarios for future atmospheric emission rates of the chlorofluorocarbons CFCl/sub 3/ (also referred to as F-11), CF/sub 2/Cl/sub 2/ (F-12), CCl/sub 2/FCClF/sub 2/(F-113), CClF/sub 2/CClF/sub 2/(F-114), and CClF/sub 2/CF/sub 3/ (F-115). These scenarios are based on potential industrial production and commercial applications, and the eventual release of these chemicals into the atmosphere. In this study, the potential effect on stratospheric ozone resulting from future chlorofluorocarbon emissions as suggested by these scenarios is examined. Assessments are based upon model calculations using the one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The change in total ozone column calculated for the seven scenarios as a function of time is given. (JGB)

  11. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  12. Scenario-Testing: Decision Rules for Evaluating Conflicting Probabilistic Claims.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dudczak, Craig A.; Baker, David

    Evaluators of argument are frequently confronted by conflicting claims. While these claims are usually based on probabilities, they are often resolved with the accepted claim treated as though it were "true," while the rejected claim is treated as though it were "false." Scenario testing is the label applied to a set of…

  13. Identification of objective representative scenarios for hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is typically based on one or a few representative eruptive scenarios, meant as specific combinations of a representative eruptive size, intensity, and vent position, selected with subjective criteria neglecting the full intrinsic natural variability characterizing volcanic processes. In common practice, the size and intensity of such scenarios are taken as representative of wider ranges, here termed "size classes". The approach implicitly or explicitly assumes that the inter-size class variability (among different eruptive size classes) is predominant with respect to the intra-size class variability (i.e., the variability inside each range represented by an eruptive size and intensity), the latter assumed as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been carried out to verify such an assumption. Here, we first adopt a novel statistical strategy, that accounts for the full natural variability, to quantify the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for tephra fallout in the Campania area. Secondly, we compare the results of the new method with those based on few representative scenarios only. On one hand, such comparison allows for determining when the simplified approach is valid, and quantifying the bias introduced in hazard assessment when the full variability is not accounted for. On the other hand, this novel approach opens the way to an objective a posteriori identification of a limited number of representative scenarios, which are necessary when there is no possibility to explore the full variability, as for example for rapid hazard assessment during emergencies, or for short-term hazard assessment.

  14. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  15. Optimal Scheduling for Underwater Communications in Multiple-user Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    scenarios Beatrice Tomasi and James C. Preisig Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA phone: (508) 289-3231 fax: (508...5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,266 Woods Hole Road, Woods Hole,MA

  16. Subsurface Scenarios: What are We Trying to Model?

    EPA Science Inventory

    In collaboration with the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (George Moridis and team),and after a thorough review of the scientific literature and data and interviews with a selection of experts on the topic, a finite number of plausible scenarios were selected for more quantitative...

  17. A Blended Learning Scenario to Enhance Learners' Oral Production Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Hee-Kyung

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the effectiveness of a mobile assisted blended learning scenario for pronunciation in Korean language. In particular, we analyze how asynchronous oral communication between learners of Korean and native speakers via "kakaotalk" (an open source mobile phone application) may be beneficial to the learner in terms of…

  18. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    PubMed

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-10-24

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model.

  19. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  20. Excision technique in constrained formulations of Einstein equations: collapse scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordero-Carrión, I.; Vasset, N.; Novak, J.; Jaramillo, J. L.

    2015-04-01

    We present a new excision technique used in constrained formulations of Einstein equations to deal with black hole in numerical simulations. We show the applicability of this scheme in several scenarios. In particular, we present the dynamical evolution of the collapse of a neutron star to a black hole, using the CoCoNuT code and this excision technique.

  1. Examining the Societal Impacts of Nanotechnology through Simulation: NANO SCENARIO

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jarmon, Leslie; Keating, Elizabeth; Toprac, Paul

    2008-01-01

    This article describes a university-sponsored experiential-based simulation, the NANO SCENARIO, to increase the public's awareness and affect attitudes on the societal implications of nanoscience and nanotechnology by bringing together diverse stakeholders' perspectives in a participatory learning environment. Nanotechnology has the potential for…

  2. Using Real-World Scenarios in Accounting Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bittner, Joseph

    2000-01-01

    High school accounting courses focus on terms and procedures without providing scenarios or examples where accounting skills are applied in business. Business educators should integrate real-world situations into classroom activities so students can better realize how accounting procedures are used and their importance. (JOW)

  3. Asia and the Pacific in 2020: Scenarios for Educational Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Power, Colin

    2009-01-01

    By 2020 our world will have changed and with it the shape and role of education and of educational research. One cannot predict the future, but in this paper three possible scenarios are outlined reflecting alternative approaches of government to the economic, political, social and environmental challenges facing the Asia Pacific region. For each…

  4. Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Na, Yong-Su; Kessel, C. E.; Park, J. M.; Yi, Sumin; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A. C. C.; Kim, J. Y.

    2009-11-01

    We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; βN above 3, H98(y, 2) up to 2.0, fBS up to 0.76 and fNI equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of qmin is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work. Finally

  5. Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Na, Y S; Kessel, C. E.; Park, Jin Myung; Yi, Sumin; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A C C; Kim, J Y

    2009-01-01

    We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; beta(N) above 3, H-98(y, 2) up to 2.0, f(BS) up to 0.76 and f(NI) equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of q(min) is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work

  6. Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

    2008-10-03

    Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

  7. Modeling the vulnerability of hydroelectricity generation under drought scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, E.; Tidwell, V. C.; Bizjack, M.; Espinoza, V.; Jared, A.

    2015-12-01

    Hydroelectricity generation highly relies on in-stream and reservoir water availability. The western US has recently experienced increasingly sever, frequent, and prolonged droughts resulting in significant water availability issues. A large number of hydropower plants in Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) are located in California River Basin and Pacific Northwest River Basin. In supporting the WECC's long-term transmission planning, a drought impact analysis was performed with a series of data and modeling tools. This presentation will demonstrate a case study for California River Basin, which has recently experienced one of the worst droughts in its history. The purpose of this study is to evaluate potential risk for hydroelectricity generation due to projected drought scenarios in the medium-term (through the year of 2030). On the basis of historical droughts and the projected drought year for 2020-2030, three drought scenarios were identified. The hydrologic model was constructed and calibrated to simulate evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, irrigation as well as reservoir storage and discharge based on various dam operation rules and targets under three drought scenarios. The model also incorporates the projected future water demand in 2030 (e.g. municipal, agricultural, electricity generation). The projected monthly reservoir discharges were used to predict the monthly hydropower generation for hydropower plants with a capacity greater than 50 MW in California River Basin for each drought scenario. The results from this study identify spatial distribution of vulnerable hydropower plants and watersheds as well as the level of potential reduction of electricity generation under various drought scenarios and provide valuable insights into future mitigation strategies and long-term planning.

  8. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion

  9. Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Schwartz, David P.; Ponce, David A.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2010-01-01

    We construct kinematic earthquake rupture models for a suite of 39 Mw 6.6-7.2 scenario earthquakes involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture models in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al., 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical relations to provide realistic variation in the rupture dimensions, slip heterogeneity, hypocenters, rupture speeds, and rise times. The five rupture lengths include portions of the Hayward fault as well as combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults and the Hayward and Calaveras faults. We vary rupture directivity using multiple hypocenters, typically three per rupture length, yielding north-to-south rupture, bilateral rupture, and south-to-north rupture. For each rupture length and hypocenter, we consider multiple random distributions of slip. We use two approaches to account for how aseismic creep might reduce coseismic slip. For one subset of scenarios, we follow the slip-predictable approach and reduce the nominal slip in creeping regions according to the creep rate and time since the most recent earthquake, whereas for another subset of scenarios we apply a vertical gradient to the nominal slip in creeping regions. The rupture models include local variations in rupture speed and use a ray-tracing algorithm to propagate the rupture front. Although we are not attempting to simulate the 1868 Hayward fault earthquake in detail, a few of the scenarios are designed to have source parameters that might be similar to this historical event.

  10. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

  11. The Thames Gateway: planning policy and flood risk scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldridge, Jillian; Horn, Diane

    2010-05-01

    The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, presents a valuable case study area in which to examine the interrelated issues of planning policy, flood risk and insurance loss potential. The region is typified by a significant exposure to flooding due to its location, which as developments proceed, could result in increased areas of vulnerability with consequential insurance loss and hotspots of risk. With 160,000 new homes planned by 2016, positive use of planning policy is fundamental in minimising potential flood risk as well as ensuring long term economic and social goals can be met. This project focuses on several planning scenarios within the Gateway for the areas of Barking and Medway, and models flood risk using a commercial flood model to develop the flood risk under alternative planning policy scenarios. The two areas chosen demonstrate major regeneration and redevelopment sites located on Thames tidal floodplain. The areas are protected by flood defences although are both downstream of the Thames Barrier. However, it is expected that defences will be maintained and upgraded over the next several years, particularly in the Medway, which is currently protected to a lower level than most other areas in the Thames Gateway. The progress of development is more advanced in Barking with the major regeneration site, Barking Riverside, hosting 2000 new homes. The study sites have been chosen based on their location and proximity to the Thames and allow for an analysis of planning policy and its influence in minimising risk into the future. The reflected change in flood risk due to both the planned developments and flood defences will help to understand change in risk over time and the intricacies expected with delivering planning policy in a multi-governed area subject to conflicting objectives. Flood risk for both sites are modelled using a commercial flood model to estimate flood risk based on several flood scenarios for both current and

  12. Sustainable development of food production: a case study on scenarios for pig production.

    PubMed

    Stern, Susanne; Sonesson, Ulf; Gunnarsson, Stefan; Oborn, Ingrid; Kumm, Karl-Ivar; Nybrant, Thomas

    2005-06-01

    To study future, sustainable production systems, a step-wise method was used to create three future scenarios for pig production based on different sustainability goals. The first scenario focused on animal welfare and the natural behavior of the animals. The second targeted low impacts on the environment and the efficient use of natural resources. The third scenario aimed at product quality and safety. Each scenario fulfilled different aspects of sustainability, but there were goal conflicts because no scenario fulfilled all sustainability goals. The scenarios were then parameterized. The environmental impact was calculated using the life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, and the economic cost was calculated from the same data set. The cost per kilo of pork was highest for the animal welfare scenario and similar for the other two scenarios. The environmental scenario had the lowest environmental impact, and the product-quality scenario the highest. The results are discussed based on different future priorities.

  13. Medicine in 2035: Selected Insights From ACGME's Scenario Planning.

    PubMed

    Nasca, Thomas J; Thomas, Charles W

    2015-03-01

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) has the responsibility for overseeing the preparation of future physician specialists and subspecialists to serve the American public. To ensure ACGME's ability to adapt and sustain its accreditation activities in a future marked by significant uncertainty, its administration and board of directors embarked on a planning process that would frame its strategic actions in support of this responsibility. We describe the scenario planning process, and report key insights that resulted from it. We also discuss in greater depth a subset of those insights, which challenge certain conventional truths, call for new collaborative directions for the ACGME, and reaffirm the importance of professionalism in service of the public across all future scenarios evaluated.

  14. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  15. Macroecological analyses support an overkill scenario for late Pleistocene extinctions.

    PubMed

    Diniz-Filho, J A F

    2004-08-01

    The extinction of megafauna at the end of Pleistocene has been traditionally explained by environmental changes or overexploitation by human hunting (overkill). Despite difficulties in choosing between these alternative (and not mutually exclusive) scenarios, the plausibility of the overkill hypothesis can be established by ecological models of predator-prey interactions. In this paper, I have developed a macroecological model for the overkill hypothesis, in which prey population dynamic parameters, including abundance, geographic extent, and food supply for hunters, were derived from empirical allometric relationships with body mass. The last output correctly predicts the final destiny (survival or extinction) for 73% of the species considered, a value only slightly smaller than those obtained by more complex models based on detailed archaeological and ecological data for each species. This illustrates the high selectivity of Pleistocene extinction in relation to body mass and confers more plausibility on the overkill scenario.

  16. Biased Interpretation of Ambiguous Social Scenarios in Anorexia Nervosa.

    PubMed

    Cardi, Valentina; Turton, Robert; Schifano, Sylvia; Leppanen, Jenni; Hirsch, Colette R; Treasure, Janet

    2017-01-01

    Patients with anorexia nervosa experience increased sensitivity to the risk of social rejection. The aims of this study were to assess the interpretation of ambiguous social scenarios depicting the risk of rejection and to examine the relationship between interpretation biases and clinical symptoms. Thirty-five women with anorexia nervosa and 30 healthy eaters completed clinical questionnaires, alongside a sentence completion task. This task required participants to generate completions to ambiguous social scenarios and to endorse their best completion. Responses were rated as being negative, neutral or positive. Patients endorsed more negative interpretations and fewer neutral and positive interpretations compared with healthy eaters. The frequency of endorsed negative interpretations correlated with depression, anxiety and fear of weight gain and body disturbance. A negative interpretation bias towards social stimuli is present in women with anorexia nervosa and correlates with clinical symptoms. Interventions aimed at reducing this bias could improve illness prognosis. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  17. Melting scenarios for three-dimensional dusty plasma clusters.

    PubMed

    Schella, André; Miksch, Tobias; Melzer, André; Schablinski, Jan; Block, Dietmar; Piel, Alexander; Thomsen, Hauke; Ludwig, Patrick; Bonitz, Michael

    2011-11-01

    The melting transition of finite three-dimensional dust clouds (Yukawa balls) from a solid-like to a liquid-like state is systematically studied with high spatial and temporal resolution of the individual grains by means of stereoscopy. Two different melting scenarios are reported: Melting is induced first by an increase of plasma power, and second by laser-induced heating. The experiments confirm that melting starts with a loss of orientational correlation, followed by a loss of the radial order upon further heating. While the plasma-power melting is driven via the ion wakefield, laser heating provides a more equilibrium scenario. The internal loss of correlations is well captured by the triple correlation function (TCF) which is insensitive to particle exchanges and the rotation of the cluster as a whole. The critical Coulomb coupling parameter for N=35 is determined as Γ(crit)≈570. The experimental findings are in good agreement with thermodynamic Monte Carlo simulations.

  18. On the origin of asteroids. [early solar system scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cameron, A. G. W.

    1979-01-01

    A general scenario is described for the early history of the solar system. The primitive solar nebula is formed from the infall of gas from a collapsing interstellar cloud fragment. It becomes repeatedly unstable against collapse to form giant gaseous protoplanets. In the course of protoplanet evolution the center of the protoplanet enters a thermodynamic regime in which common rocky minerals become liquids; convection brings solids to the central region where a substantial fraction of them rain out to form a protoplanetary core. In the inner solar system protoplanetary envelopes are tidally stripped away, thus injecting into the solar nebula large equantities of chondrules and inclusions. Late in the development of the solar nebula, after most of the gas has disappeared, turbulence dies out and the small solids settle into a thin layer at midplane of the nebula. Gravitational instabilities in this layer form asteroidal and cometary bodies. Some further consequences of this scenario are discussed.

  19. Estimating surface faulting impacts from the shakeout scenario earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Treiman, J.A.; Pontib, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    An earthquake scenario, based on a kinematic rupture model, has been prepared for a Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The rupture distribution, in the context of other historic large earthquakes, is judged reasonable for the purposes of this scenario. This model is used as the basis for generating a surface rupture map and for assessing potential direct impacts on lifelines and other infrastructure. Modeling the surface rupture involves identifying fault traces on which to place the rupture, assigning slip values to the fault traces, and characterizing the specific displacements that would occur to each lifeline impacted by the rupture. Different approaches were required to address variable slip distribution in response to a variety of fault patterns. Our results, involving judgment and experience, represent one plausible outcome and are not predictive because of the variable nature of surface rupture. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  20. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  1. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters.

    PubMed

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-11-22

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.

  2. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Lowery, Nathan; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter

    2007-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  3. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  4. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  5. Impact of W on scenario simulations for ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Leonov, V.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A. C. C.; Angioni, C.; Calabrò, G.; Dux, R.; Kallenbach, A.; Lerche, E.; Maggi, C.; Pütterich, Th.; ITPA Integrated Operating Scenarios topical Group; ASDEX Upgrade Team; Contributors, JET

    2015-06-01

    In preparation of ITER operation, large machines have replaced their wall and divertor material to W (ASDEX Upgrade) or a combination of Be for the wall and W for the divertor (JET). Operation in these machines has shown that the influx of W can have a significant impact on the discharge evolution, which has made modelling of this impact for ITER an urgent task. This paper reports on such modelling efforts. Maximum tolerable W concentrations have been determined for various scenarios, both for the current ramp-up and flat-top phase. Results of two independent methods are presented, based on the codes ZIMPUR plus ASTRA and CRONOS, respectively. Both methods have been tested and benchmarked against ITER-like Ip RU experiments at JET. It is found that W significantly disturbs the discharge evolution when the W concentration approaches ˜10-4 this critical level varies somewhat between scenarios.

  6. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  7. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    DOE PAGES

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-11-22

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethoramore » of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Lastly, our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.« less

  8. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    SciTech Connect

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-11-22

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Lastly, our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.

  9. Using scenarios to capture work processes in shared home care.

    PubMed

    Hägglund, Maria; Scandurra, Isabella; Koch, Sabine

    2007-01-01

    Shared home care is increasingly common, and in order to develop ICT that support such complex cooperative work it is crucial obtain an understanding of the work routines, information demands, and other central preconditions at the clinical level before the development is initiated. Scenarios are proposed as a technique that can be useful for capturing work processes in shared home care and experiences from the Old@Home project are presented. The scenarios are useful not only in the initial phases of the development project but throughout the development process, improving the accessibility of end user requirements and usability issues for the design team, and as a basis for use cases and further design.

  10. Police lie detection accuracy: the effect of lie scenario.

    PubMed

    O'Sullivan, Maureen; Frank, Mark G; Hurley, Carolyn M; Tiwana, Jaspreet

    2009-12-01

    Although most people are not better than chance in detecting deception, some groups of police professionals have demonstrated significant lie detection accuracy. One reason for this difference may be that the types of lies police are asked to judge in scientific experiments often do not represent the types of lies they see in their profession. Across 23 studies, involving 31 different police groups in eight countries, police officers tested with lie detection scenarios using high stakes lies (i.e., the lie was personally involving and/or resulted in substantial rewards or punishments for the liar) were significantly more accurate than law enforcement officials tested with low stakes lies. Face validity and construct validity of various lie scenarios are differentiated.

  11. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  12. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    PubMed Central

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-01-01

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria. PMID:27874006

  13. A nonextensive critical phenomenon scenario for quantum entanglement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsallis, Constantino; Lamberti, Pedro W.; Prato, Domingo

    2001-06-01

    We discuss the paradigmatic bipartite spin- {1}/{2} system having the probabilities (1+3 x)/4 of being in the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen fully entangled state |Ψ ->≡1/ 2(|↑> A|↓> B-|↓> A|↑> B) and 3(1- x)/4 of being orthogonal. This system is known to be separable if and only if x⩽ {1}/{3} (Peres criterion). This critical value has been recently recovered by Abe and Rajagopal through the use of the nonextensive entropic form S q≡(1-Tr ρ q)/(q-1) (q∈ R; S 1=-Tr ρ ln ρ) which has enabled a current generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics. This result has been enrichened by Lloyd, Baranger and one of the present authors by proposing a critical-phenomenon-like scenario for quantum entanglement. Here, we further illustrate and discuss this scenario through the calculation of some relevant quantities.

  14. Patterns of agent interaction scenarios as use case maps.

    PubMed

    Billard, Edward A

    2004-08-01

    A use case map (UCM) presents, in general, an abstract description of a complex system and, as such, is a good candidate for representing scenarios of autonomous agents interacting with other autonomous agents. The "gang of four" design patterns are intended for object-oriented software development but at least eight of the patterns illustrate structure, or architecture, that is appropriate for interacting agents, independent of software development. This study presents these particular patterns in the form of UCMs to describe abstract scenarios of agent interaction. Seven of the patterns attempt to balance the decentralized nature of interacting agents with an organized structure that makes for better, cleaner interactions. An example performance analysis is provided for one of the patterns, illustrating the benefit of an early abstraction of complex agent behavior. The original contribution here is a UCM presentation of the causal paths in agent behavior as suggested by software design patterns.

  15. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-11-01

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.

  16. Short distance modifications to Newton's law in SUSY braneworld scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Palma, Gonzalo A.

    2007-11-20

    In braneworld models coming from string theory one generally encounters massless scalar degrees of freedom-moduli-parameterizing the volume of small compact extra-dimensions. Here we discuss the effects of such moduli on Newtont's law for a fairly general 5-D supersymmetric braneworld scenario with a bulk scalar field {phi}. We show that the Newtonian potential describing the gravitational interaction between two bodies localized on the visible brane picks up a non-trivial contribution at short distances that depends on the shape of the superpotential W({phi}) of the theory. In particular, we compute this contribution for dilatonic braneworld scenarios W({phi}){proportional_to}e{sup {alpha}}{sup {phi}} (where {alpha} is a constant) and discuss the particular case of 5-D Heterotic M-theory.

  17. Multidecadal Fluvial Sediment Fluxes to Deltas under Environmental Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunn, Frances; Darby, Stephen; Nicholls, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Sediment delivery is vital to sustain delta environments on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Due to factors such as subsidence and sea level rise, deltas sink relative to sea level if sediment is not delivered to and retained on their surfaces. Deltas which sink relative to sea level experience flooding, land degradation and loss, which endangers anthropogenic activities and populations. The future of fluvial sediment fluxes, a key mechanism for sediment delivery to deltas, is uncertain due to complex environmental changes which are predicted to occur over the coming decades. This research investigates fluvial sediment fluxes under environmental changes in order to assess the sustainability of delta environments under potential future scenarios up to 2100. Global datasets of climate change, reservoir construction, and population and GDP as proxies for anthropogenic influence through land use changes are used to drive the catchment numerical model WBMsed, which is being used to investigate the effects of these environmental changes on fluvial sediment delivery. This process produces fluvial sediment fluxes under multiple future scenarios which will be used to assess the future sustainability of a selection of 8 vulnerable deltas, although the approach can be applied to deltas worldwide. By modelling potential future scenarios of fluvial sediment flux, this research contributes to the prognosis for delta environments. The future scenarios will inform management at multiple temporal scales, and indicate the potential consequences for deltas of various anthropogenic activities. This research will both forewarn managers of potentially unsustainable deltas and indicate those anthropogenic activities which encourage or hinder the creation of sustainable delta environments.

  18. Non-Gaussianity from false vacuum inflation: old curvaton scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Gong, Jinn-Ouk; Lin, Chunshan; Wang, Yi E-mail: lics@mail.ustc.edu.cn

    2010-03-01

    We calculate the three-point correlation function of the comoving curvature perturbation generated during an inflationary epoch driven by false vacuum energy. We get a novel false vacuum shape bispectrum, which peaks in the equilateral limit. Using this result, we propose a scenario which we call ''old curvaton''. The shape of the resulting bispectrum lies between the local and the false vacuum shapes. In addition we have a large running of the spectral index.

  19. Attribute Requirements for a Simulated Flight Scenario Microcomputer Test.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-01-01

    SHANNON, MICHELE KRAUSE, AND RICHARD C. IRONS January 1982 D ~ rECE JUN 1 7 1982 ’ F Ck) C...) NAVAL BIODYNAMICS LABORATORY LU New Orleans, Louisiana...SCENARIO MICROCOMPUTER TEST RICHARD H. SHANNON, MICHELE KRAUSE, AND RICHARD C. IRONS January 1982 Bureau of Medicine and Surgery Work Unit No. MF58.524...8217 abilities remain constant over time (Alvares & Hulin , 1972). The Steiger MULTICORR computer program (Stelger, 1980) is used to test the hypothesis of

  20. Model Learning for Probabilistic Simulation on Rare Events and Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-06

    rarely contain rate events, applied it to a rainfall flood risk analysis of Chikugo river, Japan, and showed that it can generate various rainfall...scenario that causes a flood . Rainfall pattern that causes a flood is generated by Replica Exchange Monte Carlo algorithm, and covariant shift...phenomenon was corrected by placing more weight on the flood region. This work gives a general framework to cope with the problem of handling a complex and

  1. Ocean acidification and warming scenarios increase microbioerosion of coral skeletons.

    PubMed

    Reyes-Nivia, Catalina; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Kline, David; Guldberg, Ove-Hoegh; Dove, Sophie

    2013-06-01

    Biological mediation of carbonate dissolution represents a fundamental component of the destructive forces acting on coral reef ecosystems. Whereas ocean acidification can increase dissolution of carbonate substrates, the combined impact of ocean acidification and warming on the microbioerosion of coral skeletons remains unknown. Here, we exposed skeletons of the reef-building corals, Porites cylindrica and Isopora cuneata, to present-day (Control: 400 μatm - 24 °C) and future pCO2 -temperature scenarios projected for the end of the century (Medium: +230 μatm - +2 °C; High: +610 μatm - +4 °C). Skeletons were also subjected to permanent darkness with initial sodium hypochlorite incubation, and natural light without sodium hypochlorite incubation to isolate the environmental effect of acidic seawater (i.e., Ωaragonite <1) from the biological effect of photosynthetic microborers. Our results indicated that skeletal dissolution is predominantly driven by photosynthetic microborers, as samples held in the dark did not decalcify. In contrast, dissolution of skeletons exposed to light increased under elevated pCO2 -temperature scenarios, with P. cylindrica experiencing higher dissolution rates per month (89%) than I. cuneata (46%) in the high treatment relative to control. The effects of future pCO2 -temperature scenarios on the structure of endolithic communities were only identified in P. cylindrica and were mostly associated with a higher abundance of the green algae Ostreobium spp. Enhanced skeletal dissolution was also associated with increased endolithic biomass and respiration under elevated pCO2 -temperature scenarios. Our results suggest that future projections of ocean acidification and warming will lead to increased rates of microbioerosion. However, the magnitude of bioerosion responses may depend on the structural properties of coral skeletons, with a range of implications for reef carbonate losses under warmer and more acidic oceans.

  2. Surface-Attack Mission Simulation: Preliminary Scenario Evaluation.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-11-01

    on reverse side if necessary and udengty by block number) Advanced Simulator for Pilot Training ( ASPT ) flight training air to surface mission planning...number) A part-task deep/strike interdiction scenario was developed for flight simulation application on the Advanced Simulator for Pilot Training ( ASPT ...briefing. information and the second after four trails in the ASPT /F- 16. Thus, each pilot flew eight trials in the simulated combat environment. The

  3. Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, E. Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

  4. Two Methodologies to Assess UrbanSim Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Techn