Science.gov

Sample records for a1fi emission scenario

  1. Bleaching and mortality of a photosymbiotic bioeroding sponge under future carbon dioxide emission scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fang, James K H; Schönberg, Christine H L; Mello-Athayde, Matheus A; Achlatis, Michelle; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Dove, Sophie

    2018-05-01

    The bioeroding sponge Cliona orientalis is photosymbiotic with dinoflagellates of the genus Symbiodinium and is pervasive on the Great Barrier Reef. We investigated how C. orientalis responded to past and future ocean conditions in a simulated community setting. The experiment lasted over an Austral summer under four carbon dioxide emission scenarios: a pre-industrial scenario (PI), a present-day scenario (PD; control), and two future scenarios of combined ocean acidification and ocean warming, i.e., B1 (intermediate) and A1FI (extreme). The four scenarios also simulated natural variability of carbon dioxide partial pressure and temperature in seawater. Responses of C. orientalis generally remained similar between the PI and PD treatments. C. orientalis under B1 displayed a dramatic increase in lateral tissue extension, but bleached and displayed reduced rates of respiration and photosynthesis. Some B1 sponge replicates died by the end of the experiment. Under A1FI, strong bleaching and subsequent mortality of all C. orientalis replicates occurred at an early stage of the experiment. Mortality arrested bioerosion by C. orientalis under B1 and A1FI. Overall, the absolute amount of calcium carbonate eroded by C. orientalis under B1 or A1FI was similar to that under PI or PD at the end of the experiment. Although bioerosion rates were raised by short-term experimental acidification in previous studies, our findings from the photosymbiotic C. orientalis imply that the effects of bioerosion on reef carbonate budgets may only be temporary if the bioeroders cannot survive long-term in the future oceans.

  2. Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

  3. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-10-01

    This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  4. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  5. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-04-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon - a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  6. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  7. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  8. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

  9. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  10. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-04-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

  11. Year 2015 Aircraft Emission Scenario for Scheduled Air Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Sutkus, Donald J.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional scenario of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons)for projected year 2015 scheduled air traffic. These emission inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxides, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  12. Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

    2016-12-01

    This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

  13. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    DOE PAGES

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; ...

    2016-04-14

    Here in this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO 2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010-2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic costmore » of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO 2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO 2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO 2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts a 11.3% reduction under the ‘high’ carbon tax. The main reasons for this difference are differences in assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO 2 storage capacity, and the ability to

  14. Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Zhining; Williams, Allen; Huang, Ho-Chun; Caughey, Michael; Liang, Xin-Zhong

    2007-04-01

    The relative contributions of projected future emissions and climate changes to U.S. surface ozone concentrations are investigated focusing on California, the Midwest, the Northeast, and Texas. By 2050 regional average ozone concentrations increase by 2-15% under the IPCC SRES A1Fi (``dirty'') scenario, and decrease by 4-12% under the B1 (relatively ``clean'') scenario. However, the magnitudes of ozone changes differ significantly between major metropolitan and rural areas. These ozone changes are dominated by the emissions changes in 61% area of the contiguous U.S. under the B1 scenario, but are largely determined by the projected climate changes in 46% area under the A1Fi scenario. In the ozone responses to climate changes, the biogenic emissions changes contribute strongly over the Northeast, moderately in the Midwest, and negligibly in other regions.

  15. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  16. Temperature - Emissivity Separation Assessment in a Sub-Urban Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moscadelli, M.; Diani, M.; Corsini, G.

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, a methodology that aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different TES strategies is presented. The methodology takes into account the specific material of interest in the monitored scenario, sensor characteristics, and errors in the atmospheric compensation step. The methodology is proposed in order to predict and analyse algorithms performances during the planning of a remote sensing mission, aimed to discover specific materials of interest in the monitored scenario. As case study, the proposed methodology is applied to a real airborne data set of a suburban scenario. In order to perform the TES problem, three state-of-the-art algorithms, and a recently proposed one, are investigated: Temperature-Emissivity Separation '98 (TES-98) algorithm, Stepwise Refining TES (SRTES) algorithm, Linear piecewise TES (LTES) algorithm, and Optimized Smoothing TES (OSTES) algorithm. At the end, the accuracy obtained with real data, and the ones predicted by means of the proposed methodology are compared and discussed.

  17. Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

    2011-01-13

    The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

  18. Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

    2013-11-01

    This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

  19. Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holloway, T.

    2010-12-01

    Though much work has been done to develop accurate chemical emission inventories, few publicly available inventories are appropriate for realistic policy analysis. Emissions from the electricity and transportation sectors, in particular, respond in complex ways to policy, technology, and energy use change. Many widely used inventories, such as the EPA National Emissions Inventory, are well-suited for modeling current air quality, but do not have the specificity needed to address "what if?" questions. Changes in electricity demand, fuel prices, new power sources, and emission controls all influence the emissions from regional power production, requiring a plant-by-plant assessment to capture the spatially explicit impacts. Similarly, land use, freight distribution, or driving behavior will yield differentiated transportation emissions for urban areas, suburbs, and rural highways. We here present results from three recent research projects at the University of Wisconsin—Madison, where bottom-up emission inventories for electricity, freight transport, and urban vehicle use were constructed to support policy-relevant air quality research. These three studies include: 1) Using the MyPower electricity dispatch model to calculate emissions and air quality impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards and other carbon-management strategies; 2) Using advanced vehicle and commodity flow data from the Federal Highway Administration to evaluate the potential to shift commodities from truck to rail (assuming expanded infrastructure), and assess a range of alternative fuel suggestions; and 3) Working with urban planners to connect urban density with vehicle use to evaluate the air quality impacts of smart-growth in major Midwest cities. Drawing on the results of these three studies, and on challenges overcome in their execution, we discuss the current state of policy-relevant emission dataset generation, as well as techniques and attributes that need to be further refined in order

  20. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  1. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  2. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  3. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  4. Development of reduction scenarios for criteria air pollutants emission in Tehran Traffic Sector, Iran.

    PubMed

    Mohammadiha, Amir; Malakooti, Hossein; Esfahanian, Vahid

    2018-05-01

    Transport-related pollution as the main source of air pollution must be reduced in Tehran mega-city. The performance of various developed scenarios including BAU (Business As Usual) as baseline scenario, ECV (Elimination of carburetor equipped Vehicle), NEM (New Energy Motorcycles), HES (Higher Emission Standard), VCR (Vehicle Catalyst Replacement), FQE (Fuel Quality Enhancement), DPF (Diesel Particulate Filter) and TSA (Total Scenarios Aggregation) are evaluated by International Vehicle Model up to 2028. In the short term, the ECV, VCR, and FQE scenarios provided high performance in CO, VOCs and NOx emissions control. Also FQE has an excellent effect on SOx emission reduction (86%) and DPF on PM emissions (20%). In the mid-term, the VCR, ECV, and FQE scenarios were presented desirable mean emission reduction on CO, VOCs, and NOx. Moreover, NOx emission reduction of DPF scenario is the most common (14%). Again FQE scenario proves to have great effect on SOx emission reduction in mid-term (86%), DPF and HES scenarios on PM (DPF: 49% and HES: 17%). Finally for the long term, VCR, ECV, FQE, and NEM scenarios were shown good performance in emission control on CO, VOCs and NOx. For SOx only FQE has a good effect in all time periods (FQE: 86%) and DPF and HES scenarios have the best effect on PM emission reduction respectively (DPF: 51% and HES: 27%) compared with BAU scenario. However, DPF scenario increases 12% SOx emission in long-term (2028). It can be generally concluded that VCR and ECV scenarios would achieve a significant reduction on gaseous pollutants emission except for SOx in general and FQE scenarios have desirable performance for all gaseous pollutants in the short term and also for SOx and VOCs in long term. In addition, the DPF and HES would be desirable scenario for emission control on PM in Tehran Traffic Sector. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Emissions from residential combustion considering end-uses and spatial constraints: Part II, emission reduction scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.

    2016-01-01

    Cooking, heating, and other activities in the residential sector are major sources of indoor and outdoor air pollution, especially when solid fuels are used to provide energy. Because of their deleterious effects on the atmosphere and human health, multinational strategies to reduce emissions have been proposed. This study examines the effects of some possible policies, considering realistic factors that constrain mitigation: end-uses, spatial constraints involving proximity to forest or electricity, existing technology, and assumptions about user behavior. Reduction scenarios are applied to a year-2010, spatially distributed baseline of emissions of particulate matter, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen oxides, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Scenarios explored are: (1) cleanest current stove, where we assume that existing technology in each land type is applied to burn existing fuels; (2) stove standards, where we assume that stoves are designed to meet performance standards; and (3) clean fuels, where users adopt the cleanest fuels plausible in each land type. We assume that people living in forest access areas continue to use wood regardless of available fuels, so the clean-fuels scenario leads to a reduction in emissions of 18-25%, depending on the pollutant, across the study region. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used; emission reductions range from 25 to 82%, depending on the pollutant. If stove performance standards can be met, particulate matter emissions are reduced by 62% for the loosest standards and 95% for the tightest standards, and carbon monoxide is reduced by 40% and 62% for the loosest and tightest standards. Reductions in specific regions and countries depend on the existing fuel mixture and the population division among land types, and are explored for Latin America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

  6. Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

    2011-12-01

    In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

  7. Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

    1994-01-01

    Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

  8. Development of Probabilistic Socio-Economic Emissions Scenarios (2012)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The purpose of this analysis is to help overcome these limitations through the development of a publically available library of socio-economic-emissions projections derived from a systematic examination of uncertainty in key underlying model parameters, w

  9. Assessment of biodiesel scenarios for Midwest freight transport emission reduction.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-04-01

    There are trade-offs when attempting to reduce both greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutants for freight transport, as the control : strategies are not necessarily complimentary. While emission controls can remove ozone precursors and particulate f...

  10. Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

    2015-12-01

    Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

  11. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  12. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

    2016-05-17

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

  13. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

  14. Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States

    SciTech Connect

    Nsanzineza, Rene; O’Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory

    This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees.more » Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.« less

  15. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shaojian

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions. PMID:26397373

  16. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  17. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    DOE PAGES

    Grandey, Benjamin S.; Cheng, Haiwen; Wang, Chien

    2016-04-06

    Fuel usage is an important driver of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In Asia, it is possible that aerosol emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly as a result of the widespread adoption of cleaner technologies or a shift toward noncoal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of two aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: a representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) control, which projects a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and a scenario with enhanced anthropogenic aerosolmore » emissions from Asia. A coupled atmosphere–ocean configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), including the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), is used. Three sets of initial conditions are used to produce a three-member ensemble for each scenario. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to exert a large cooling effect across the Northern Hemisphere, partially offsetting greenhouse gas–induced warming. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world. Over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced, an effect associated with a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, driven by the aerosol-induced cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. Over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed, likely via a weakening of the West African westerly jet. These results indicate that fuel usage in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.« less

  18. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  19. ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

  20. Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2018-04-01

    Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

  1. Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

    PubMed

    Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

    2018-06-01

    Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone in Europe for present day and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Road traffic is an important anthropogenic source of NOx, CO and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) which act as precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone. The formation of ozone is highly non-linear. This means that the contribution of the road traffic sector cannot directly be derived from the amount of emitted species, because they are also determined by local emissions of other anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, long range transport of precursors and ozone can play an important role in determining the local ozone budget. For a complete assessment of the impact of road traffic emissions it is therefore important to resolve both, local emissions and long range transport. This can be achieved by the use of the newly developed MECO(n) model system, which on-line couples the global chemistry-climate-model EMAC with the regional chemistry-climate-model COSMO-CLM/MESSy. Both models use the same chemical speciation. This allows a highly consistent model chain from the global to the local scale. To quantify the contribution of the road traffic emissions to tropospheric ozone we use an accounting system of the relevant reaction pathways of the different species from different sources (called tagging method). This tagging scheme is implemented consistently on all scales, allowing a direct comparison of the contributions. With this model configuration we investigate the impact of road traffic emissions to the tropospheric ozone budget in Europe. For the year 2008 we compare different emission scenarios and investigate the influence of both model and emission resolution. In addition, results of a mitigation scenario for the year 2030 are presented. They indicate that the contribution of the road traffic sector can be reduced by local reductions of emissions during summer. During winter the importance of long range transport increases. This can lead to increased contributions of the road traffic sector (e.g. by increased emissions in the US) even if local

  3. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dove, Sophie G.; Kline, David I.; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E.; Tyson, Gene W.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-01-01

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  4. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  5. OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A; Billé, R; Cheung, W W L; Howes, E L; Joos, F; Allemand, D; Bopp, L; Cooley, S R; Eakin, C M; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Kelly, R P; Pörtner, H-O; Rogers, A D; Baxter, J M; Laffoley, D; Osborn, D; Rankovic, A; Rochette, J; Sumaila, U R; Treyer, S; Turley, C

    2015-07-03

    The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  7. Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

    PubMed Central

    Takeshita, Takayuki

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them. PMID:21845172

  8. Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

  9. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

  10. Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits. PMID:25412200

  11. Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

    PubMed

    Morita, Haruka; Yang, Suijia; Unger, Nadine; Kinney, Patrick L

    2014-12-16

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

  12. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  13. Effects of elevated nutrients and CO2 emission scenarios on three coral reef macroalgae.

    PubMed

    Bender-Champ, Dorothea; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2017-05-01

    Coral reef macroalgae are expected to thrive in the future under conditions that are deleterious to the health of reef-building corals. Here we examined how macroalgae would be affected by exposure to future CO 2 emission scenarios (pCO 2 and temperature), enriched nutrients and combinations of both. The species tested, Laurencia intricata (Rhodophyta), Turbinaria ornata and Chnoospora implexa (both Phaeophyceae), have active carbon-concentrating mechanisms but responded differently to the treatments. L. intricata showed high mortality under nutrient enriched RCP4.5 ("reduced" CO 2 emission) and RCP8.5 ("business-as-usual" CO 2 emission) and grew best under pre-industrial (PI) conditions, where it could take up carbon using external carbonic anhydrase combined, potentially, with proton extrusion. T. ornata's growth rate showed a trend for reduction under RCP8.5 but was unaffected by nutrient enrichment. In C. implexa, highest growth was observed under PI conditions, but highest net photosynthesis occurred under RCP8.5, suggesting that under RCP8.5, carbon is stored and respired at greater rates while it is directed to growth under PI conditions. None of the species showed growth enhancement under future scenarios, nutrient enrichment or combinations of both. This leads to the conclusion that under such conditions these species are unlikely to pose an increasing threat to coral reefs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  15. Temperature Rise and Allowable Carbon Emissions for the RCP2.6 Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Huntingford, C.; Kawamiya, M.

    2012-12-01

    Climate research centres are running Earth System Models (ESMs) forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. While these GCM studies increase process based knowledge, the number of simulations is small, making it difficult to interpret the resulting distribution of responses in a probabilistic way. We use a probabilistic framework to estimate the range of future temperature change and allowable emissions for a low mitigation CO2 concentration pathway RCP 2.6. Uncertainty is initially estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then further constrained by extensive use of contemporary measurements. Despite this, the resulting range of temperatures for RCP 2.6 remains large. The predicted peak global temperature increase, reached around 2100, from pre-industrial is 0.8 - 1.9 K and 1.0 - 1.9 K (95% range) for the unconstrained and the constrained cases, respectively. Allowable emissions at the time of peak emission period is projected as 6.0 - 10.8 PgC yr-1 and 7.4 - 10.2 PgC yr-1 for each case. After year 2100, negative net emissions are required with a probability of some 84 %, and related uncertainty in cumulative emissions is large.

  16. Military, Charter, Unreported Domestic Traffic and General Aviation 1976, 1984, 1992, and 2015 Emission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mortlock, Alan; VanAlstyne, Richard

    1998-01-01

    The report describes development of databases estimating aircraft engine exhaust emissions for the years 1976 and 1984 from global operations of Military, Charter, historic Soviet and Chinese, Unreported Domestic traffic, and General Aviation (GA). These databases were developed under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Subsonic Assessment (AST). McDonnell Douglas Corporation's (MDC), now part of the Boeing Company has previously estimated engine exhaust emissions' databases for the baseline year of 1992 and a 2015 forecast year scenario. Since their original creation, (Ward, 1994 and Metwally, 1995) revised technology algorithms have been developed. Additionally, GA databases have been created and all past NIDC emission inventories have been updated to reflect the new technology algorithms. Revised data (Baughcum, 1996 and Baughcum, 1997) for the scheduled inventories have been used in this report to provide a comparison of the total aviation emission forecasts from various components. Global results of two historic years (1976 and 1984), a baseline year (1992) and a forecast year (2015) are presented. Since engine emissions are directly related to fuel usage, an overview of individual aviation annual global fuel use for each inventory component is also given in this report.

  17. The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

  18. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  19. Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited. PMID:24569320

  20. Scenarios reducing greenhouse gas emission from motor vehicles in State University of Malang

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustin, I. W.; Meidiana, C.

    2018-04-01

    State University of Malang (UM) is one of the universities in Malang city. It has the second largest number of student after Brawijaya University (UB) with the growing number of students each year, resulting in increase the amount of motorized vehicle usage on campus. The State University of Malang condition shows the number of motorcycles in the provided parking area exceeded the capacity, causing the emergence of the improperly parking area. The condition causes the increase of mileage for vehicles that do not get a parking space. They must find and move to another parking area were still empty. The movement to another parking area resulted in the increase of exhaust emissions from motorized vehicles into the air. The main purpose of the research was to create alternative scenario of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the State University of Malang. Alternative emission reduction based on strategies of Avoid-Shift-Improve (A-S-I), and the importance level of alternative determined with Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA). The result showed that selected alternative in emission reduction with the highest score of 40 per cent was centralized parking management.

  1. Changes in land cover and carbon emissions to 2050 from African tropical forests using policy scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laporte, N.; Galford, G. L.; Soares Filho, B. S.

    2011-12-01

    Africa has the second largest block of rainforest in the world, next to the Amazon basin, with the majority of the carbon being stored in the dense humid forests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Historically, political instability in the DRC kept development and deforestation low, with primary forest uses being extensive logging and small scale agriculture. In the last decade, political stability has opened the country to foreign investment in forested areas, largely for industrial-scale oil palm plantations and more recently to rice production. The DRC ranks worst on the IFPRI global hunger index, scoring "extremely serious" based on the proportion of undernourished population, prevalence of underweight in children under 5 and the mortality rates of children under 5. In fact, DRC saw its hunger score increase (worsen) from 1990 to 2010, with a 66% gain compared to the other 8 worsening countries increasing only 21% or less. This is a critical time for policy in the DRC, where business-as-usual (relatively low deforestation rates) is unlikely to continue given today's relative political stability and economic stabilization compared to the 1990s. The country must examine options for forest conservation in balance with foreign investment for use of forest resources, national development of rural livelihoods and domestic production of food. Here we present deforestation trajectories simulated through the year 2050 under a set of scenarios. The scenarios consider the relative carbon emissions from business-as-usual (no new policy), conservation (policy favoring protection and enforcement for forest areas), and a food security scenario (favoring clearing for industrial agriculture, extractive timber resources and development of new agricultural areas). Carbon emissions for each scenario are estimated with a coupled bookkeeping model. These scenarios are not predictive of the future, rather, they are meant to provide an understanding of the outcomes of

  2. Global production, use, and emission volumes of short-chain chlorinated paraffins - A minimum scenario.

    PubMed

    Glüge, Juliane; Wang, Zhanyun; Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2016-12-15

    Short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) show high persistence, bioaccumulation potential, and toxicity (PBT properties). Consequently, restrictions on production and use have been enforced in several countries/regions. The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants recognized the PBT properties and long-range transport potential of SCCPs in 2015 and is now evaluating a possible global phase-out or restrictions. In this context, it is relevant to know which countries are producing/using SCCPs and in which amounts, and which applications contribute most to their environmental emissions. To provide a first comprehensive overview, we review and integrate all publicly available data on the global production and use of both chlorinated paraffins (CPs) as a whole and specifically SCCPs. Considerable amount of data on production/use of CPs and SCCPs are missing. Based on the available data and reported emission factors, we estimate the past and current worldwide SCCP emissions from individual applications. Using the available data as a minimum scenario, we conclude: (i) SCCP production and use is increasing, with the current worldwide production volume being 165,000t/year at least, whereas the global production of total CPs exceeds 1milliont/year. (ii) The worldwide release of SCCPs from their production and use to air, surface water, and soil between 1935 and 2012 has been in the range of 1690-41,400t, 1660-105,000t, and 9460-81,000t, respectively. (iii) The SCCP manufacture and use in PVC, the use in metal working applications and sealants/adhesives, and the use in plastics and rubber contribute most to the emissions to air, surface water, and soil. Thus, the decrease in the environmental emissions of SCCPs requires reduction of SCCP use in (almost) all applications. (iv) Emissions due to the disposal of waste SCCPs cannot be accurately estimated, because relevant information is missing. Instead, we conduct a scenario analysis to provide some insights into

  3. Testing the Young Neutron Star Scenario with Persistent Radio Emission Associated with FRB 121102

    SciTech Connect

    Kashiyama, Kazumi; Murase, Kohta

    Recently a repeating fast radio burst (FRB) 121102 has been confirmed to be an extragalactic event and a persistent radio counterpart has been identified. While other possibilities are not ruled out, the emission properties are broadly consistent with Murase et al. that theoretically proposed quasi-steady radio emission as a counterpart of both FRBs and pulsar-driven supernovae. Here, we constrain the model parameters of such a young neutron star scenario for FRB 121102. If the associated supernova has a conventional ejecta mass of M {sub ej} ≳ a few M {sub ⊙}, a neutron star with an age of t {submore » age} ∼ 10–100 years, an initial spin period of P{sub i} ≲ a few ms, and a dipole magnetic field of B {sub dip} ≲ a few × 10{sup 13} G can be compatible with the observations. However, in this case, the magnetically powered scenario may be favored as an FRB energy source because of the efficiency problem in the rotation-powered scenario. On the other hand, if the associated supernova is an ultra-stripped one or the neutron star is born by the accretion-induced collapse with M {sub ej} ∼ 0.1 M {sub ⊙}, a younger neutron star with t {sub age} ∼ 1–10 years can be the persistent radio source and might produce FRBs with the spin-down power. These possibilities can be distinguished by the decline rate of the quasi-steady radio counterpart.« less

  4. Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector in Argentina in business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Santalla, Estela; Córdoba, Verónica; Blanco, Gabriel

    2013-08-01

    The objective of this work was the application of 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the waste sector in Argentina as a preliminary exercise for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development and to compare with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions projections to 2030 were evaluated under two scenarios--business as usual (BAU), and mitigation--and the calculations were done by using the ad hoc developed IPCC software. According to local activity data, in the business-as-usual scenario, methane emissions from solid waste disposal will increase by 73% by 2030 with respect to the emissions of year 2000. In the mitigation scenario, based on the recorded trend of methane captured in landfills, a decrease of 50% from the BAU scenario should be achieved by 2030. In the BAU scenario, GHG emissions from domestic wastewater will increase 63% from 2000 to 2030. Methane emissions from industrial wastewater, calculated from activity data of dairy, swine, slaughterhouse, citric, sugar, and wine sectors, will increase by 58% from 2000 to 2030 while methane emissions from domestic will increase 74% in the same period. Results show that GHG emissions calculated from 2006 IPCC Guidelines resulted in lower levels than those reported in previous national inventories for solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater categories, while levels were 18% higher for industrial wastewater. The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories is now considering by the UNFCCC for non-Annex I countries in order to enhance the compilation of inventories based on comparable good practice methods. This work constitutes the first GHG emissions estimation from the waste sector of Argentina applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the ad doc developed software. It will contribute to identifying the main differences between the models applied in the estimation of

  5. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  6. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    PubMed

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  7. Global Source-Receptor Relationships for Mercury Deposition Under Present-Day and 2050 Emissions Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Corbitt, Elizabeth S.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Holmes, Christopher D.; Streets, David G.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

    2011-01-01

    Global policies regulating anthropogenic mercury require an understanding of the relationship between emitted and deposited mercury on intercontinental scales. Here we examine source-receptor relationships for present-day conditions and for four 2050 IPCC scenarios encompassing a range of economic development and environmental regulation projections. We use the GEOS-Chem global model to track mercury from its point of emission through rapid cycling in surface ocean and land reservoirs to its accumulation in longer-lived ocean and soil pools. Deposited mercury has a local component (emitted HgII, lifetime of 3.7 days against deposition) and a global component (emitted Hg0, lifetime of 6 months against deposition). Fast recycling of deposited mercury through photoreduction of HgII and re-emission of Hg0 from surface reservoirs (ice, land, surface ocean) increases the effective lifetime of anthropogenic mercury to 9 months against loss to legacy reservoirs (soil pools and the subsurface ocean). This lifetime is still sufficiently short that source-receptor relationships have a strong hemispheric signature. Asian emissions are the largest source of anthropogenic deposition to all ocean basins, though there is also regional source influence from upwind continents. Current anthropogenic emissions account for only about one-third of mercury deposition to the global ocean with the remainder from natural and legacy sources. However, controls on anthropogenic emissions would have the added benefit of reducing the legacy mercury re-emitted to the atmosphere. Better understanding is needed of the timescales for transfer of mercury from active pools to stable geochemical reservoirs. PMID:22050654

  8. Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study

    PubMed Central

    Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas RV; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

    2017-01-01

    Objective To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. Design For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1–5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Setting Working age population for England. Participants Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Primary outcomes measured Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Results Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO2e/year for the diet scenarios. Conclusions Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. PMID:28399514

  9. How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marty, Christoph; Schlögl, Sebastian; Bavay, Mathias; Lehning, Michael

    2017-02-01

    This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999-2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future time periods (2020-2049, 2045-2074, 2070-2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500-800 or 700-1000 m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and only 0-2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %).

  10. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE PAGES

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; ...

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

  11. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    PubMed Central

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

  12. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.B.; Frumhoff, P.C.; Maurer, E.P.; Miller, N.L.; Moser, S.C.; Schneider, S.H.; Cahill, K.N.; Cleland, E.E.; Dale, L.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, R.M.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Lenihan, J.; Lunch, C.K.; Neilson, R.P.; Sheridan, S.C.; Verville, J.H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

  13. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sicard, Pierre; Anav, Alessandro; De Marco, Alessandra; Paoletti, Elena

    2017-10-01

    The impact of ground-level ozone (O3) on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4-5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2-10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  14. Attribution of future US ozone pollution to regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport, and model deficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, H.; Liang, X.-Z.; Lei, H.; Wuebbles, D. J.

    2014-10-01

    A regional chemical transport model (CTM) is used to quantify the relative contributions of future US ozone pollution from regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and model deficiency. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, the representation of present-day US ozone pollution is notably improved. This nested system projects substantial surface ozone trends for 2050's: 6-10 ppbv decreases under the "clean" A1B scenario and ~15 ppbv increases under the "dirty" A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 20-50% in A1B and positive 20-40% in A1Fi, while LRT effects through chemical LBCs and climate changes account for respectively 15-50% and 10-30% in both scenarios. The projection uncertainty due to model biases is region dependent, ranging from -10 to 50%. It is shown that model biases of present-day simulations can propagate into future projections systematically but nonlinearly, and the accurate specification of LBCs is essential for US ozone projections.

  15. The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

    2016-12-01

    Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

  16. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

  17. Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Aerosol Emission Scenarios on Hydrology in the Mekong Basins and their Effects on Irrigation and Hydropower

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeo, L. K.; Wang, C.

    2016-12-01

    Water distribution is closely linked to food and energy security. Aerosol emissions affect cloud properties, as well as atmospheric stability, changing the distribution of precipitation. These changes in precipitation causes changes in water availability, affecting food production and energy generation. These impacts are especially important in Southeast Asia, which uses up to 90% of their water supply for irrigation. In addition, the Mekong river, the largest inland fishery in the world, has 30,000MW of hydropower potential in its lower reaches alone. Modelling the impacts of these anthropogenic emission scenarios will allow us to better understand their downstream effects on hydrology, and any potential feedbacks it may have on future aerosol emissions. In the first step, we run the WRF model using FNL reanlaysis data from 2014 and 2015 to generate the WRF-hydro model forcing inputs. We then run the WRF-hydro model and compare the output with current measurements of soil moisture, river flow, and precipitation. Secondly, we run the WRF-Chem model with various anthropogenic emission scenarios and put the results through the WRF-hydro model to determine the impact of these emission scenarios on soil moisture and river flow. The scenarios include enhanced anthropogenic emissions in Asia, anologous to widespread adoption of coal burning as an energy source in Asia. Anthropogenic emissions have the potential to affect energy policy in countries affected by these emissions. When hydropower generation is affected by changes in precipitation, the affected countries will have to switch to alternative sources of fuel to meet their energy needs. These sources typically result in changes in anthropogenic aerosol emisssions, especially if coal is used as an alternative source of energy.

  18. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-31

    China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. PULMONARY AND SYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF ZINC-CONTAINING EMISSION PARTICLES IN THREE RAT STRAINS: MULTIPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract
    Pulmonary and Systemic Effects of Zinc-Containing Emission Particles in Three Rat Strains: Multiple Exposure Scenarios. Kodavanti, U. P., Schladweiler, M. C. J., Ledbetter, A. D., Hauser, R.*, Christiani, D. C.*, McGee, J., Richards, J. R., and Costa, D. L. (2002)....

  20. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Treesearch

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  1. Developing a dynamic life cycle greenhouse gas emission inventory for wood construction for two different end-of-life scenarios

    Treesearch

    Richard D. Bergman; James Salazar; Scott Bowe

    2012-01-01

    Static life cycle assessment does not fully describe the carbon footprint of construction wood because of carbon changes in the forest and product pools over time. This study developed a dynamic greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory approach using US Forest Service and life-cycle data to estimate GHG emissions on construction wood for two different end-of-life scenarios....

  2. Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study.

    PubMed

    Tainio, Marko; Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas Rv; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

    2017-02-22

    To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1-5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Working age population for England. Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO 2 e/year for the diet scenarios. Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  3. Tracer transport for realistic aircraft emission scenarios calculated using a three-dimensional model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weaver, Clark J.; Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.

    1995-01-01

    A three-dimensional transport model, which uses winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system, is used to study the transport of supersonic aircraft exhaust in the lower stratosphere. A passive tracer is continuously injected into the transport model. The tracer source distribution is based on realistic scenarios for the daily emission rate of reactive nitrogen species for all forecasted flight routes. Winds are from northern hemisphere winter/spring months for 1979 and 1989; there are minimal differences between the tracer integrations for the 2 years. During the integration, peak tracer mixing ratios in the flight corridors are compared with the zonal mean and found to be greater by a factor of 2 or less. This implies that the zonal mean assumption used in two dimensional models is reasonable during winter and spring. There is a preference for pollutant buildup in the heavily traveled North Pacific and North Atlantic flight corridors. Pollutant concentration in the corridors depends on the position of the Aleutian anticyclone and the northern hemisphere polar vortex edge.

  4. Analysis of UK and European NOx and VOC emission scenarios in the Defra model intercomparison exercise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derwent, Richard; Beevers, Sean; Chemel, Charles; Cooke, Sally; Francis, Xavier; Fraser, Andrea; Heal, Mathew R.; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Lingard, Justin; Redington, Alison; Sokhi, Ranjeet; Vieno, Massimo

    2014-09-01

    Simple emission scenarios have been implemented in eight United Kingdom air quality models with the aim of assessing how these models compared when addressing whether photochemical ozone formation in southern England was NOx- or VOC-sensitive and whether ozone precursor sources in the UK or in the Rest of Europe (RoE) were the most important during July 2006. The suite of models included three Eulerian-grid models (three implementations of one of these models), a Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model and two moving box air parcel models. The assignments as to NOx- or VOC-sensitive and to UK- versus RoE-dominant, turned out to be highly variable and often contradictory between the individual models. However, when the assignments were filtered by model performance on each day, many of the contradictions could be eliminated. Nevertheless, no one model was found to be the 'best' model on all days, indicating that no single air quality model could currently be relied upon to inform policymakers robustly in terms of NOx- versus VOC-sensitivity and UK- versus RoE-dominance on each day. It is important to maintain a diversity in model approaches.

  5. Biohydrogen production from microalgal biomass: energy requirement, CO2 emissions and scale-up scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Ana F; Ortigueira, Joana; Alves, Luís; Gouveia, Luísa; Moura, Patrícia; Silva, Carla

    2013-09-01

    This paper presents a life cycle inventory of biohydrogen production by Clostridium butyricum through the fermentation of the whole Scenedesmus obliquus biomass. The main purpose of this work was to determine the energy consumption and CO2 emissions during the production of hydrogen. This was accomplished through the fermentation of the microalgal biomass cultivated in an outdoor raceway pond and the preparation of the inoculum and culture media. The scale-up scenarios are discussed aiming for a potential application to a fuel cell hybrid taxi fleet. The H2 yield obtained was 7.3 g H2/kg of S. obliquus dried biomass. The results show that the production of biohydrogen required 71-100 MJ/MJ(H2) and emitted about 5-6 kg CO2/MJ(H2). Other studies and production technologies were taken into account to discuss an eventual process scale-up. Increased production rates of microalgal biomass and biohydrogen are necessary for bioH2 to become competitive with conventional production pathways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

  7. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  9. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

    2017-03-28

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

  10. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

  11. Early UV emission from disc-originated matter (DOM) in Type Ia supernovae in the double-degenerate scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levanon, Naveh; Soker, Noam

    2017-09-01

    We show that the blue and UV excess emission in the first few days of some Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) can be accounted in the double-degenerate (DD) scenario by the collision of the SN ejecta with circumstellar matter that was blown by the accretion disc formed during the merger process of the two white dwarfs (WDs). We assume that in cases of excess early light, the disc blows the circumstellar matter, that we term disc-originated matter (DOM), hours to days before explosion. To perform our analysis, we first provide a model-based definition for early excess light, replacing the definition of excess light relative to a power-law fit to the rising luminosity. We then examine the light curves of the SNe Ia iPTF14atg and SN 2012cg, and find that the collision of the ejecta with a DOM in the frame of the DD scenario can account for their early excess emission. Thus, early excess light does not necessarily imply the presence of a stellar companion in the frame of the single-degenerate scenario. Our findings further increase the variety of phenomena that the DD scenario can account for, and emphasize the need to consider all different SN Ia scenarios when interpreting observations.

  12. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  13. Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Tang, Jianping; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Gao, Xuejie; Wu, Jia; Hong, Songyou; Gutowski, William J.; McGregor, John

    2015-10-01

    As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978-2000) and future projection (2041-2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low-level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter-RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter-RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi-RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter-RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041-2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%.

  14. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  15. Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United

  16. Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

  17. Projection of global terrestrial nitrous oxide emission using future scenarios of climate and land-use management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inatomi, M. I.; Ito, A.

    2016-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O), with a centennial mean residence time in the atmosphere, is one of the most remarkable greenhouse gases. Because natural and anthropogenic emissions make comparable contributions, we need to take account of different sources of N2O such as natural soils and fertilizer in croplands to predict the future emission change and to discuss its mitigation. In this study, we conduct a series of simulations of future change in nitrous oxide emission from terrestrial ecosystems using a process-based model, VISIT. We assume a couple of scenarios of future climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, fertilizer input, and land-use change. In particular, we develop a new scenario of cropland fertilizer input on the basis of changes in crop productivity and fertilizer production cost. Expansion of biofuel crop production is considered but in a simplified manner (e.g., a specific fraction of pasture conversion to biofuel cultivation). Regional and temporal aspects of N2O emission are investigated and compared with previous studies. Finally, we make discussions, on the basis of simulated results, about the high-end of N2O emission, mitigation options, and impact of fertilizer input.

  18. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

  19. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, Etsushi; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2014-09-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socioeconomic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above preindustrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high-fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full postprocess combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high-fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required; however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise, a conflict of land use with food production is inevitable.

  20. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  1. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

    PubMed

    Matsuno, Taroh; Maruyama, Koki; Tsutsui, Junichi

    2012-01-01

    Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO(2) emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.

  2. Aerosol reductions could dominate regional climate responses in low GHG emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S.; Forster, P.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S. M.; Schleussner, C. F.

    2017-12-01

    Limiting global warming to current political goals requires strong, rapid mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline sharply, due to co-emission with greenhouse gases, and future measures to improve air quality. As the net climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained, predicting the impact of strong aerosol emission reductions remains challenging. Here we investigate the isolated and compound climate impacts from removing present day anthropogenic emissions of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and SO2, and moderate, near term GHG dominated global warming, using four coupled climate models. As the dominating effect of aerosol emission reduction is a removal of cooling from sulphur, the resulting climate impacts amplify those of GHG induced warming. BC emissions contribute little to reducing surface warming, but have stronger regional impacts. For the major aerosol emission regions, extreme weather indices are more sensitive to aerosol removal than to GHG increases, per degree of surface warming. East Asia in particular stands out, mainly due to the high present regional aerosol emissions. We show how present climate models indicate that future regional climate change will depend strongly on changes in loading and distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere, in addition to surface temperature change.

  3. Analysis of consistency of global net land-use change carbon emission scenario using offline vegetation model and earth system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

    2010-12-01

    For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.

  4. ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

  5. Aircraft Emission Scenarios Projected in Year 2015 for the NASA Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) High Speed Civil Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCTs) on a universal airline network. Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The HSCT scenarios are calculated using the NASA technology concept airplane (TCA) and update an earlier report. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer pressure altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  6. Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

  7. Emissions of indoor air pollutants from six user scenarios in a model room

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Höllbacher, Eva; Ters, Thomas; Rieder-Gradinger, Cornelia; Srebotnik, Ewald

    2017-02-01

    In this study six common user scenarios putatively influencing indoor air quality were performed in a model room constructed according to the specifications of the European Reference Room given in the new horizontal prestandard prEN 16516 to gain further information about the influence of user activities on indoor air quality. These scenarios included the use of cleaning agent, an electric air freshener, an ethanol fireplace and cosmetics as well as cigarette smoking and peeling of oranges. Four common indoor air pollutants were monitored: volatile organic compounds (VOC), particulate matter (PM), carbonyl compounds and CO2. The development of all pollutants was determined during and after the test performance. For each measured pollutant, well-defined maximum values could be assigned to one or more of the individual user scenarios. The highest VOC concentration was measured during orange-peeling reaching a maximum value of 3547 μg m-3. Carbonyl compounds and PM were strongly elevated while cigarette smoking. Here, a maximum formaldehyde concentration of 76 μg m-3 and PM concentration of 378 μg m-3 were measured. CO2 was only slightly affected by most of the tests except the use of the ethanol fireplace where a maximum concentration of 1612 ppm was reached. Generally, the user scenarios resulted in a distinct increase of several indoor pollutants that usually decreased rapidly after the removal of the source.

  8. Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2018-02-01

    Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

  9. Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Wein, Anne; Bliss, Norman B.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Li, Zhengpeng

    2015-01-01

    We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss and potential carbon savings. Wetland avoided loss scenarios, superimposed upon LULC change scenarios, quantified carbon stocks preserved under criteria of carbon densities or land value plus cropland suitability. Up to 3420 km2 of wetlands may be lost in the region by 2050, mainly due to conversion of herbaceous wetlands in the Temperate Prairies where soil organic carbon (SOC) is highest. SOC loss would be approximately 0.20 ± 0.15 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year (MgC ha−1 yr−1), depending upon tillage practices on converted wetlands, and total ecosystem carbon loss in woody wetlands would be approximately 0.81 ± 0.41 MgC ha−1 yr−1, based on biogeochemical model results. Among wetlands vulnerable to conversion, wetlands in the Northern Glaciated Plains and Lake Agassiz Plains ecoregions exhibit very high mean SOC and on average, relatively low land values, potentially creating economically competitive opportunities for avoided carbon loss. This mitigation scenarios approach may be adapted by managers using their own preferred criteria to select sites that best meet their objectives. Results can help prioritize field-based assessments, where site-level investigations of carbon stocks, land value, and consideration of local priorities for climate change mitigation programs are needed.

  10. Pomace waste management scenarios in Québec--impact on greenhouse gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S K; Pelletier, F; Verma, M; Godbout, S; Tyagi, R D

    2011-09-15

    Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, "pomace" contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO(2) eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO(2) eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to consideration of some assumptions in order to calculate GHG emissions. Hence, supplementary experimental studies will be very important to calculate the GHG emissions coefficients during agro-industrial waste management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, T.

    2015-12-01

    A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

  12. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

  13. Using CMAQ to provide probabilistic assessment of emission control scenarios in meeting the ozone standard

    EPA Science Inventory

    In the United States, regional-scale air quality models are being used to identify emissions reductions needed to comply with the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard. Previous work has demonstrated that ozone extreme values (i.e., 4th highest ozone or Design Value) are c...

  14. Trend and uncertainty analysis of simulated climate change impacts with multiple GCMs and emission scenarios

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Impacts of climate change on hydrology, soil erosion, and wheat production during 2010-2039 at El Reno in central Oklahoma, USA, were simulated using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Projections from four GCMs (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emissions scenari...

  15. Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios

    Treesearch

    M. Hurteau; M. North

    2009-01-01

    Forests are viewed as a potential sink for carbon (C) that might otherwise contribute to climate change. It is unclear, however, how to manage forests with frequent fire regimes to maximize C storage while reducing C emissions from prescribed burns or wildfire. We modeled the effects of eight different fuel treatments on treebased C storage and release over a century,...

  16. Changes in atmospheric sulfur burdens and concentrations and resulting radiative forcings under IPCC SRES emission scenarios for 1990-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pham, M.; Boucher, O.; Hauglustaine, D.

    2005-03-01

    Simulations of the global sulfur cycle under the IPCC SRES scenarios have been performed. Sulfur dioxide and sulfate burdens, as well as the direct and first indirect radiative forcing (RF) by sulfate aerosols only, are presented for the period 1990 to 2100. By 2100, global sulfur emission rates decline everywhere in all scenarios. At that time, the anthropogenic sulfate burden ranges from 0.34 to 1.03 times the 1990 value of 0.47 Tg S. Direct and indirect global and annually mean RFs relative to the year 1990 are near 0 or positive (range of -0.07 to 0.28 Wm-2 and 0.01 to 0.38 Wm-2 for the direct and indirect effects, respectively). For reference these forcings amount respectively to -0.42 and -0.79 Wm-2 in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions (around 1750). Sulfur aerosols will therefore induce a smaller cooling effect in 2100 than in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions. For the period 1990 to 2100, the forcing efficiencies (computed relatively to 1990) are fairly constant for the direct effect (around -160 W (g sulfate)-1). The forcing efficiencies for the indirect effect are around -200 and -100 W (g sulfate)-1 for negative and positive burden differences, respectively. This is due to a shift in regional patterns of emissions and a saturation in the indirect effect. The simulated annually averaged SO2 concentrations for A1B scenario in 2020 are close to air quality objectives for public health in some parts of Africa and exceed these objectives in some parts of China and Korea. Moreover, sulfate deposition rates are estimated to increase by 200% from the present level in East and Southeast Asia. This shows that Asia may experience in the future sulfur-related environmental and human health problems as important as Europe and the United States did in the 1970s.

  17. Spatial variability of intake fractions for Canadian emission scenarios: a comparison between three resolution scales.

    PubMed

    Manneh, Rima; Margni, Manuele; Deschênes, Louise

    2010-06-01

    Spatially differentiated intake fractions (iFs) linked to Canadian emissions of toxic organic chemicals were developed using the multimedia and multipathways fate and exposure model IMPACT 2002. The fate and exposure of chemicals released to the Canadian environment were modeled with a single regional mass-balance model and three models that provided multiple mass-balance regions within Canada. These three models were based on the Canadian subwatersheds (172 zones), ecozones (15 zones), and provinces (13 zones). Releases of 32 organic chemicals into water and air were considered. This was done in order to (i) assess and compare the spatial variability of iFs within and across the three levels of regionalization and (ii) compare the spatial iFs to nonspatial ones. Results showed that iFs calculated using the subwatershed resolution presented a higher spatial variability (up to 10 orders of magnitude for emissions into water) than the ones based on the ecozones and provinces, implying that higher spatial resolution could potentially reduce uncertainty in iFs and, therefore, increase the discriminating power when assessing and comparing toxic releases for known emission locations. Results also indicated that, for an unknown emission location, a model with high spatial resolution such as the subwatershed model could significantly improve the accuracy of a generic iF. Population weighted iFs span up to 3 orders of magnitude compared to nonspatial iFs calculated by the one-box model. Less significant differences were observed when comparing spatial versus nonspatial iFs from the ecozones and provinces, respectively.

  18. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

    PubMed Central

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

    2018-01-01

    Abstract The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land‐use change (LUC). Land‐based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI‐Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land‐use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI‐Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low‐emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

  19. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

    2018-03-01

    The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

  20. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

  1. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. <5 years (immature), 5-20 and >21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and the resulting CO 2 -eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N 2 O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO 2 -eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  2. Impact of passenger car NOX emissions on urban NO2 pollution - Scenario analysis for 8 European cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degraeuwe, Bart; Thunis, Philippe; Clappier, Alain; Weiss, Martin; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Vranckx, Stijn

    2017-12-01

    Residents of large European cities are exposed to NO2 concentrations that often exceed the established air quality standards. Diesel cars have been identified as a major contributor to this situation; yet, it remains unclear to which levels the NOX emissions of diesel cars have to decrease to effectively mitigate urban NO2 pollution across Europe. Here, we take a continental perspective and model urban NO2 pollution in a generic street canyon of 8 major European cities for various NOX emission scenarios. We find that a reduction in the on-road NOX emissions of diesel cars to the Euro 6 level can in general decrease the regional and urban NO2 concentrations and thereby the frequency of exceedances of the NO2 air quality standard. High NO2 fractions in the NOX emissions of diesel cars tend to increase the urban NO2 concentrations only in proximity of intense road traffic typically found on artery roads in large cities like Paris and London. In cities with a low share of diesel cars in the vehicle fleet such as Athens or a high contribution from the NO2 background to the urban NO2 pollution such as Krakow, measures addressing heavy-duty vehicles, and the manufacturing, energy, and mining industry are necessary to decrease urban air pollution. We regard our model results as robust albeit subject to uncertainty resulting from the application of a generic street layout. With small modifications in the input parameters, our model could be used to assess the impact of NOX emissions from road transport on NO2 air pollution in any European city.

  3. Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2016-03-01

    A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

  4. A modeling comparison of deep greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios by 2030 in California

    DOE PAGES

    Yeh, Sonia; Yang, Christopher; Gibbs, Michael; ...

    2016-10-21

    California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs),more » demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.« less

  5. Evolution of the US energy system and related emissions under varying social and technological development paradigms: Plausible scenarios for use in robust decision making.

    PubMed

    Brown, Kristen E; Hottle, Troy Alan; Bandyopadhyay, Rubenka; Babaee, Samaneh; Dodder, Rebecca Susanne; Kaplan, Pervin Ozge; Lenox, Carol; Loughlin, Dan

    2018-06-21

    The energy system is the primary source of air pollution. Thus, evolution of the energy system into the future will affect society's ability to maintain air quality. Anticipating this evolution is difficult because of inherent uncertainty in predicting future energy demand, fuel use, and technology adoption. We apply Scenario Planning to address this uncertainty, developing four very different visions of the future. Stakeholder engagement suggested technological progress and social attitudes toward the environment are critical and uncertain factors for determining future emissions. Combining transformative and static assumptions about these factors yields a matrix of four scenarios that encompass a wide range of outcomes. We implement these scenarios in the U.S. EPA MARKAL model. Results suggest that both shifting attitudes and technology transformation may lead to emission reductions relative to present, even without additional policies. Emission caps, such as the Cross State Air Pollution Rule, are most effective at protecting against future emission increases. An important outcome of this work is the scenario implementation approach, which uses technology-specific discount rates to encourage scenario-specific technology and fuel choices. End-use energy demands are modified to approximate societal changes. This implementation allows the model to respond to perturbations in manners consistent with each scenario.

  6. Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilhan, Asli; Ünal, Yurdanur S.

    2017-04-01

    Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios A. ILHAN ve Y. S. UNAL Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorology In the study, 50 km resolution downscaled results of two different Earth System Models (ESM) HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM with regional climate model of RegCM are used to estimate present and future climate conditions over Mediterranean Basin. The purpose of this study is to compare the projections of two ESMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) over the region of interest seasonally and annually with 50 km resolution. Temperature and precipitation parameters for reference period (1971-2000) and future (2015-2100) are analyzed. The average temperature and total precipitation distributions of each downscaled ESM simulations were compared with observation data (Climate Research Unit-CRU data) to explore the capability of each model for the representation of the current climate. According to reference period values of CRU, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM, it is seen that both models are warmer and wetter than observations and have positive temperature biases only around Caspian Sea and positive precipitation biases over Eastern and Central Europe. The future projections (from 2015 to 2100) of HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are compared with reference period (from 1971 to 2000) and analyzed for temperature and precipitation parameters. The downscaled HadGEM2-ES forced by RCP8.5 scenario produces higher temperatures than the MPI-ESM-MR. The reasons of this warming can be sensitivity of HadGEM2-ES to greenhouse gases and high radiative forcing (+8.5 W/m2). On the other hand, MPI-ESM produce more precipitation than HadGEM2-ES. In order to analyze regional responses of the climate model chains, five main regions are selected which are Turkey, Central Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North Africa. The average biases of the Had

  7. Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustian Permadi, Didin; Oanh, Nguyen Thi Kim; Vautard, Robert

    2018-03-01

    Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF-CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007), assuming no intervention with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF-CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98 W m-2, which would increase to 2.0 W m-2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m-2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agricultural crop

  8. Assessing Concentrations and Health Impacts of Air Quality Management Strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST)

    PubMed Central

    Milando, Chad W.; Martenies, Sheena E.; Batterman, Stuart A.

    2017-01-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest the potential for FRESH-EST to identify pollution control alternatives for air quality management planning. PMID:27318620

  9. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    PubMed

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  10. Prompt Neutrino Emission of Gamma-ray Bursts in the Dissipative Photospheric Scenario Revisited: Possible Contributions from Cocoons

    SciTech Connect

    Xiao, Di; Dai, Zi-Gao; Mészáros, Peter, E-mail: dzg@nju.edu.cn

    2017-07-01

    High-energy neutrinos are expected to originate from different stages in a gamma-ray burst (GRB) event. In this work, we revisit the dissipative photospheric scenario, in which the GRB prompt emission is produced around the photospheric radius. Meanwhile, possible dissipation mechanisms (e.g., internal shocks or magnetic reconnection) could accelerate cosmic-rays (CRs) to ultra-high energies and then produce neutrinos via hadronuclear and photohadronic processes, which are referred to as prompt neutrinos . In this paper, we obtain the prompt neutrino spectrum of a single GRB within a self-consistent analytical framework, in which the jet-cocoon structure and possible collimation effects are included. Wemore » investigate a possible neutrino signal from the cocoon, which has been ignored in the previous studies. We show that if a GRB event happens at a distance of the order of Mpc, there is a great chance to observe the neutrino emission from the cocoon by IceCube, which is even more promising than jet neutrinos, as the opening angle of the cocoon is much larger. We also determine the diffuse neutrino flux of GRB cocoons and find that it could be comparable with that of the jets. Our results are consistent with the latest result reported by the IceCube collaboration that no significant correlation between neutrino events and observed GRBs is seen in the new data.« less

  11. Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

    PubMed

    Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

    2017-12-01

    Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

  12. Evaluating EDGARv4.tox2 speciated mercury emissions ex-post scenarios and their impacts on modelled global and regional wet deposition patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Giang, Amanda; Selin, Noelle E.; Zhong, Hui; Zhao, Yu; Olivier, Jos G. J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Crippa, Monica; Schaaf, Edwin; Dentener, Frank

    2018-07-01

    Speciated mercury gridded emissions inventories together with chemical transport models and concentration measurements are essential when investigating both the effectiveness of mitigation measures and the mercury cycle in the environment. Since different mercury species have contrasting behaviour in the atmosphere, their proportion in anthropogenic emissions could determine the spatial impacts. In this study, the time series from 1970 to 2012 of the EDGARv4.tox2 global mercury emissions inventory are described; the total global mercury emission in 2010 is 1772 tonnes. Global grid-maps with geospatial distribution of mercury emissions at a 0.1° × 0.1° resolution are provided for each year. Compared to the previous tox1 version, tox2 provides updates for more recent years and improved emissions in particular for agricultural waste burning, power generation and artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sectors. We have also developed three retrospective emissions scenarios based on different hypotheses related to the proportion of mercury species in the total mercury emissions for each activity sector; improvements in emissions speciation are seen when using information primarily from field measurements. We evaluated them using the GEOS-Chem 3-D mercury model in order to explore the influence of speciation shifts, to reactive mercury forms in particular, on regional wet deposition patterns. The reference scenario S1 (EDGARv4.tox2_S1) uses speciation factors from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP); scenario S2 ("EPA_power") uses factors from EPA's Information Collection Request (ICR); and scenario S3 ("Asia_filedM") factors from recent scientific publications. In the reference scenario, the sum of reactive mercury emissions (Hg-P and Hg2+) accounted for 25.3% of the total global emissions; the regions/countries that have shares of reactive mercury emissions higher than 6% in total global reactive mercury are China+ (30.9%), India+ (12.5%) and

  13. Modeling the impact of crop rotation with legume on nitrous oxide emissions from rain-fed agricultural systems in Australia under alternative future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ma, Yuchun; Schwenke, Graeme; Sun, Liying; Liu, De Li; Wang, Bin; Yang, Bo

    2018-07-15

    Limited information exists on potential impacts of climate change on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions by including N 2 -fixing legumes in crop rotations from rain-fed cropping systems. Data from two 3-yr crop rotations in northern NSW, Australia, viz. chickpea-wheat-barley (CpWB) and canola-wheat-barley (CaWB), were used to gain an insight on the role of legumes in mitigation of N 2 O emissions. High-frequency N 2 O fluxes measured with an automated system of static chambers were utilized to test the applicability of Denitrification and Decomposition model. The DNDC model was run using the on-site observed weather, soil and farming management conditions as well as the representative concentration pathways adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fifth Assessment Report. The DNDC model captured the cumulative N 2 O emissions with variations falling within the deviation ranges of observations (0.88±0.31kgNha -1 rotation -1 for CpWB, 1.44±0.02kgNha -1 rotation -1 for CaWB). The DNDC model can be used to predict between modeled and measured N 2 O flux values for CpWB (n=390, RSR=0.45) and CaWB (n=390, RSR=0.51). Long-term (80-yr) simulations were conducted with RCP 4.5 representing a global greenhouse gas stabilization scenario, as well RCP 8.5 representing a very high greenhouse gas emission scenario based on RCP scenarios. Compared with the baseline scenarios for CpWB and CaWB, the long-term simulation results under RCP scenarios showed that, (1) N 2 O emissions would increase by 35-44% for CpWB and 72-76% for CaWB under two climate scenarios; (2) grain yields would increase by 9% and 18% under RCP 4.5, and 2% and 14% under RCP 8.5 for CpWB and CaWB, respectively; and (3) yield-scaled N 2 O-N emission would increase by 24-42% for CpWB and 46-54% for CaWB under climate scenarios, respectively. Our results suggest that 25% of the yield-scaled N 2 O-N emission would be saved by switching to a legume rotation under climate change conditions. Crown

  14. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Simpson, David; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin D.; Landgren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to -3 % (-1.4 ppb). This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India

  15. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: A practical zero-emissions scenario

    PubMed Central

    MATSUNO, Taroh; MARUYAMA, Koki; TSUTSUI, Junichi

    2012-01-01

    Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 ℃ above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO2 emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint. PMID:22850728

  16. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  17. Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

    2017-04-01

    In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air

  18. Contrasting Impact of Future CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Frölicher, T. L.; Kropuenske Artman, L.

    2018-03-01

    The eastern boundary upwelling systems are among those regions that are most vulnerable to an ocean acidification-induced transition toward undersaturated conditions with respect to mineral CaCO3, but no assessment exists yet for the Humboldt Current System. Here we use a high-resolution (˜7.5 km) regional ocean model to investigate past and future changes in ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state in this system. We find that within the next few decades, the nearshore waters off Peru are projected to become corrosive year round with regard to aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. The volume of aragonite undersaturated water off Peru will continue to increase in the future irrespective of the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. In contrast, the development of the saturation state with regard to calcite, a less soluble form of carbonate, depends strongly on the scenario followed. By 2050, calcite undersaturation appears in the nearshore waters off Peru occasionally, but by 2090 in a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), ˜60% of the water in the euphotic zone will become permanently calcite undersaturated. Most of this calcite undersaturation off Peru can likely be avoided if a low emission scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Paris Agreement is followed. The progression of ocean acidification off Chile follows a similar pattern, except that the saturation states are overall higher. But also here, calcite undersaturated waters will become common in the subsurface waters under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of this century, while this can be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario.

  19. Regional climate change over South Korea projected by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Joong-Bae; Im, Eun-Soon; Jo, Sera

    2017-04-01

    This study assesses the regional climate projection newly projected within the framework of the national downscaling project in South Korea. The fine-scale climate information (12.5 km) is produced by dynamical downscaling of the HadGEM2-AO global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and 8.5) scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Changes in temperature and precipitation in terms of long-term trends, daily characteristics and extremes are presented by comparing two 30 yr periods (2041-2070 vs. 2071-2100). The temperature increase presents a relevant trend, but the degree of warming varies in different periods and emission scenarios. While the temperature distribution from the RCP8.5 projection is continuously shifted toward warmer conditions by the end of the 21st century, the RCP4.5 projection appears to stabilize warming in accordance with emission forcing. This shift in distribution directly affects the magnitude of extremes, which enhances extreme hot days but reduces extreme cold days. Precipitation changes, however, do not respond monotonically to emission forcing, as they exhibit less sensitivity to different emission scenarios. An enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation are discernible, implying an intensified hydrologic cycle. Changes in return levels of annual maximum precipitation suggest an increased probability of extreme precipitation with 20 yr and 50 yr return periods. Acknowledgement : This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA 2015-2081

  20. Impact of passenger car NOx emissions and NO2 fractions on urban NO2 pollution - Scenario analysis for the city of Antwerp, Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degraeuwe, Bart; Thunis, Philippe; Clappier, Alain; Weiss, Martin; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Vranckx, Stijn

    2016-02-01

    The annual NO2 concentrations in many European cities exceed the established air quality standard. This situation is mainly caused by Diesel cars whose NOx emissions are higher on the road than during type approval in the laboratory. Moreover, the fraction of NO2 in the NOx emissions of modern diesel cars appears to have increased as compared to previous models. In this paper, we assess 1) to which level the distance-specific NOx emissions of Diesel cars should be reduced to meet established air quality standards and 2) if it would be useful to introduce a complementary NO2 emissions limit. We develop a NO2 pollution model that accounts in an analysis of 9 emission scenarios for changes in both, the urban background NO2 concentrations and the local NO2 emissions at street level. We apply this model to the city of Antwerp, Belgium. The results suggest that a reduction in NOx emissions decreases the regional and urban NO2 background concentration; high NO2 fractions increase the ambient NO2 concentrations only in close spatial proximity to the emission source. In a busy access road to the city centre, the average NO2 concentration can be reduced by 23% if Diesel cars emitted 0.35 g NOx/km instead of the current 0.62 g NOx/km. Reductions of 45% are possible if the NOX emissions of Diesel cars decreased to the level of gasoline cars (0.03 g NOx/km). Our findings suggest that the Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) test procedure can solve the problem of NO2 exceedances in cities if it reduced the on-road NOx emissions of diesel cars to the permissible limit of 0.08 g/km. The implementation of a complementary NO2 emissions limit may then become superfluous. If Diesel cars continue to exceed by several factors their NOx emissions limit on the road, a shift of the vehicle fleet to gasoline cars may be necessary to solve persisting air quality problems.

  1. Patterns in CH4 and CO2 concentrations across boreal rivers: Major drivers and implications for fluvial greenhouse emissions under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Campeau, Audrey; Del Giorgio, Paul A

    2014-04-01

    It is now widely accepted that boreal rivers and streams are regionally significant sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), yet their role as methane (CH4) emitters, as well as the sensitivity of these greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to climate change, are still largely undefined. In this study, we explore the large-scale patterns of fluvial CO2 and CH4 partial pressure (pCO2 , pCH4) and gas exchange (k) relative to a set of key, climate-sensitive river variables across 46 streams and rivers in two distinct boreal landscapes of Northern Québec. We use the resulting models to determine the direction and magnitude of C-gas emissions from these boreal fluvial networks under scenarios of climate change. River pCO2 and pCH4 were positively correlated, although the latter was two orders of magnitude more variable. We provide evidence that in-stream metabolism strongly influences the dynamics of surface water pCO2 and pCH4 , but whereas pCO2 is not influenced by temperature in the surveyed streams and rivers, pCH4 appears to be strongly temperature-dependent. The major predictors of ambient gas concentrations and exchange were water temperature, velocity, and DOC, and the resulting models indicate that total GHG emissions (C-CO2 equivalent) from the entire network may increase between by 13 to 68% under plausible scenarios of climate change over the next 50 years. These predicted increases in fluvial GHG emissions are mostly driven by a steep increase in the contribution of CH4 (from 36 to over 50% of total CO2 -equivalents). The current role of boreal fluvial networks as major landscape sources of C is thus likely to expand, mainly driven by large increases in fluvial CH4 emissions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. AERIS - applications for the environment : real-time information synthesis : low emissions zone (LEZ) operational scenario modeling report.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-01-01

    This report describes the analysis and modeling effort that was conducted to simulate the potential impacts of a Low Emissions Zone (LEZ) strategy. LEZs are designated areas within a metropolitan region where special measures are implemented with a v...

  3. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five...

  4. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

  5. Non-variable TeV emission from the extended jet of a blazar in the stochastic acceleration scenario: the case of the hard TeV emission of 1ES 1101-232

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Dahai; Zeng, Houdun; Zhang, Li

    2012-08-01

    The detections of X-ray emission from the kiloparsec-scale jets of blazars and radio galaxies could imply the existence of high-energy electrons in these extended jets, and these electrons could produce high-energy emission through the inverse Compton (IC) process. In this paper, we study the non-variable hard TeV emission from a blazar. The multiband emission consists of two components: (i) the traditional synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) emission from the inner jet; (ii) the emission produced via SSC and IC scattering of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons (IC/CMB) and extragalactic background light (EBL) photons by relativistic electrons in the extended jet under the stochastic acceleration scenario. Such a model is applied to 1ES 1101-232. The results indicate the following. (i) The non-variable hard TeV emission of 1ES 1101-232, which is dominated by IC/CMB emission from the extended jet, can be reproduced well by using three characteristic values of the Doppler factor (δD = 5, 10 and 15) for the TeV-emitting region in the extended jet. (ii) In the cases of δD = 15 and 10, the physical parameters can achieve equipartition (or quasi-equipartition) between the relativistic electrons and the magnetic field. In contrast, the physical parameters largely deviate from equipartition for the case of δD = 5. Therefore, we conclude that the TeV emission region of 1ES 1101-232 in the extended jet should be moderately or highly beamed.

  6. Integrating Land Use and Socioeconomic Factors into Scenario-Based Travel Demand and Carbon Emission Impact Study

    EPA Science Inventory

    Urban sprawl continues since the last century, leading to a rapid increase in automobile ownership and vehicle travel demand, while resulting in more traffic congestion and automobile emissions. Land use, serving as a source of travel demand, can significantly impact travel behav...

  7. Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

    PubMed

    Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

    2017-03-01

    In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

    2016-01-01

    In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)—weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will

  9. Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

    PubMed

    Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

    2016-01-01

    In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide

  10. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  11. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD-WRF Model.

    PubMed

    Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

    2017-01-01

    The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth's surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD-WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario.

  12. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD–WRF Model

    PubMed Central

    Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

    2017-01-01

    The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth’s surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)–Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD–WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario. PMID:28141866

  13. A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grubler, Arnulf; Wilson, Charlie; Bento, Nuno; Boza-Kiss, Benigna; Krey, Volker; McCollum, David L.; Rao, Narasimha D.; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; De Stercke, Simon; Cullen, Jonathan; Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Guo, Fei; Gidden, Matt; Havlík, Petr; Huppmann, Daniel; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Rafaj, Peter; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Valin, Hugo

    2018-06-01

    Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

  14. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  15. Cocoa Intensification Scenarios and Their Predicted Impact on CO2 Emissions, Biodiversity Conservation, and Rural Livelihoods in the Guinea Rain Forest of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gockowski, Jim; Sonwa, Denis

    2011-08-01

    The Guinean rain forest (GRF) of West Africa, identified over 20 years ago as a global biodiversity hotspot, had reduced to 113,000 km2 at the start of the new millennium which was 18% of its original area. The principal driver of this environmental change has been the expansion of extensive smallholder agriculture. From 1988 to 2007, the area harvested in the GRF by smallholders of cocoa, cassava, and oil palm increased by 68,000 km2. Field results suggest a high potential for significantly increasing crop yields through increased application of seed-fertilizer technologies. Analyzing land-use change scenarios, it was estimated that had intensified cocoa technology, already developed in the 1960s, been pursued in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon that over 21,000 km2 of deforestation and forest degradation could have been avoided along with the emission of nearly 1.4 billion t of CO2. Addressing the low productivity of agriculture in the GRF should be one of the principal objectives of REDD climate mitigation programs.

  16. Scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  17. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 μg m-3 under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 μg m-3 under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m-2 and 2.0 W m-2 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 °C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m-2 in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  18. A national assessment of the effect of intensive agro-land use practices on nonpoint source pollution using emission scenarios and geo-spatial data.

    PubMed

    Zhuo, Dong; Liu, Liming; Yu, Huirong; Yuan, Chengcheng

    2018-01-01

    China's intensive agriculture has led to a broad range of adverse impacts upon ecosystems and thereby caused environmental quality degradation. One of the fundamental problems that face land managers when dealing with agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is to quantitatively assess the NPS pollution loads from different sources at a national scale. In this study, export scenarios and geo-spatial data were used to calculate the agricultural NPS pollution loads of nutrient, pesticide, plastic film residue, and crop straw burning in China. The results provided the comprehensive and baseline knowledge of agricultural NPS pollution from China's arable farming system in 2014. First, the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) emission loads to water environment were estimated to be 1.44 Tg N and 0.06 Tg P, respectively. East and south China showed the highest load intensities of nutrient release to aquatic system. Second, the amount of pesticide loss to water of seven pesticides that are widely used in China was estimated to be 30.04 tons (active ingredient (ai)). Acetochlor was the major source of pesticide loss to water, contributing 77.65% to the total loss. The environmental impacts of pesticide usage in east and south China were higher than other parts. Third, 19.75% of the plastic film application resided in arable soils. It contributed a lot to soil phthalate ester (PAE) contamination. Fourth, 14.11% of straw produce were burnt in situ, most occurring in May to July (post-winter wheat harvest) in North China Plain and October to November (post-rice harvest days) in southeast China. All the above agricultural NPS pollution loadings were unevenly distributed across China. The spatial correlations between pollution loads at land unit scale were also estimated. Rising labor cost in rural China might be a possible explanation for the general positive correlations of the NPS pollution loads. It also indicated a co-occurred higher NPS pollution loads and a higher

  19. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

  20. Hydrogen Pathways: Updated Cost, Well-to-Wheels Energy Use, and Emissions for the Current Technology Status of Ten Hydrogen Production, Delivery, and Distribution Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsden, T.; Ruth, M.; Diakov, V.

    2013-03-01

    This report describes a life-cycle assessment conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of 10 hydrogen production, delivery, dispensing, and use pathways that were evaluated for cost, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This evaluation updates and expands on a previous assessment of seven pathways conducted in 2009. This study summarizes key results, parameters, and sensitivities to those parameters for the 10 hydrogen pathways, reporting on the levelized cost of hydrogen in 2007 U.S. dollars as well as life-cycle well-to-wheels energy use and GHG emissions associated with the pathways.

  1. OPTICAL SPECTROSCOPY OF SDSS J004054.65-0915268: THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE CLASSIFICATION. A z ∼ 5 BL LACERTAE, A BLUE FSRQ, OR A WEAK EMISSION LINE QUASAR

    SciTech Connect

    Landoni, M.; Zanutta, A.; Bianco, A.

    2016-02-15

    The haunt of high-redshift BL Lacerate objects is day by day more compelling to firmly understand their intrinsic nature and evolution. SDSS J004054.65-0915268 is, at the moment, one of the most distant BL Lac candidates, at z ∼ 5. We present a new optical-near-IR spectrum obtained with ALFOSC-NOT with a new, custom designed dispersive grating aimed to detect broad emission lines that could disprove this classification. In the obtained spectra, we do not detect any emission features and we provide an upper limit to the luminosity of the C iv broad emission line. Therefore, the nature of the object is then discussed,more » building the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) and fitting it with three different models. Our fits, based on SED modeling with different possible scenarios, cannot rule out the possibility that this source is indeed a BL Lac object, though the absence of optical variability and the lack of strong radio flux seem to suggest that the observed optical emission originates from a thermalized accretion disk.« less

  2. Optical Spectroscopy of SDSS J004054.65-0915268: Three Possible Scenarios for the Classification. A z ˜ 5 BL Lacertae, a Blue FSRQ, or a Weak Emission Line Quasar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landoni, M.; Zanutta, A.; Bianco, A.; Tavecchio, F.; Bonnoli, G.; Ghisellini, G.

    2016-02-01

    The haunt of high-redshift BL Lacerate objects is day by day more compelling to firmly understand their intrinsic nature and evolution. SDSS J004054.65-0915268 is, at the moment, one of the most distant BL Lac candidates, at z ˜ 5. We present a new optical-near-IR spectrum obtained with ALFOSC-NOT with a new, custom designed dispersive grating aimed to detect broad emission lines that could disprove this classification. In the obtained spectra, we do not detect any emission features and we provide an upper limit to the luminosity of the C IV broad emission line. Therefore, the nature of the object is then discussed, building the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) and fitting it with three different models. Our fits, based on SED modeling with different possible scenarios, cannot rule out the possibility that this source is indeed a BL Lac object, though the absence of optical variability and the lack of strong radio flux seem to suggest that the observed optical emission originates from a thermalized accretion disk.

  3. Life-Cycle Energy and GHG Emissions for New and Recovered Softwood Framing Lumber and Hardwood Flooring Considering End-of-Life Scenarios

    Treesearch

    Richard D. Bergman; Robert H. Falk; Hongmei Gu; Thomas R. Napier; Jamie Meil

    2013-01-01

    Within the green building fields is a growing movement to recover and reuse building materials in lieu of demolition and land fill disposal. However, they lack life-cycle data to help quantify environmental impacts. This study quantifies the primary energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions released from the production of wood recovered from an old house and from new...

  4. Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model: California's Carbon Challenge Phase II, Volume II

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah

    2014-01-01

    This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to themore » present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and

  5. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  6. Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

    Treesearch

    A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

    2011-01-01

    Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

  7. Disentangling Hadronic and Leptonic Cascade Scenarios from the Very-High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission of Distant Hard-Spectrum Blazars

    DOE PAGES

    Takami, Hajime; Murase, Kohta; Dermer, Charles D.

    2013-06-26

    We show that recent data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope have revealed about a dozen distant hard-spectrum blazars that have very-high-energy (VHE; ≳ 100 eV) photons associated with them, but most of them have not yet been detected by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. Most of these high-energy gamma-ray spectra, like those of other extreme high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects, can be well explained either by gamma rays emitted at the source or by cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, as we show specifically for KUV 00311–1938. We consider the prospects for detection of the VHE sources by the plannedmore » Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) and show how it can distinguish the two scenarios by measuring the integrated flux above ~500 GeV (depending on source redshift) for several luminous sources with z ≲ 1 in the sample. Strong evidence for the origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays could be obtained from VHE observations with CTA. Depending on redshift, if the often quoted redshift of KUV 00311–1938 (z = 0.61) is believed, then preliminary H.E.S.S. data favor cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. Lastly, accurate redshift measurements of hard-spectrum blazars are essential for this study.« less

  8. Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States

    Treesearch

    Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews

    2008-01-01

    We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern United States. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential future distributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) and...

  9. FHWA scenario planning guidebook

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework to develop a scenario planning approach tailored to th...

  10. Interpreting energy scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  11. Assessing oral bioaccessibility of trace elements in soils under worst-case scenarios by automated in-line dynamic extraction as a front end to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Rosende, María; Magalhães, Luis M; Segundo, Marcela A; Miró, Manuel

    2014-09-09

    A novel biomimetic extraction procedure that allows for the in-line handing of ≥400 mg solid substrates is herein proposed for automatic ascertainment of trace element (TE) bioaccessibility in soils under worst-case conditions as per recommendations of ISO norms. A unified bioaccessibility/BARGE method (UBM)-like physiological-based extraction test is evaluated for the first time in a dynamic format for accurate assessment of in-vitro bioaccessibility of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in forest and residential-garden soils by on-line coupling of a hybrid flow set-up to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. Three biologically relevant operational extraction modes mimicking: (i) gastric juice extraction alone; (ii) saliva and gastric juice composite in unidirectional flow extraction format and (iii) saliva and gastric juice composite in a recirculation mode were thoroughly investigated. The extraction profiles of the three configurations using digestive fluids were proven to fit a first order reaction kinetic model for estimating the maximum TE bioaccessibility, that is, the actual worst-case scenario in human risk assessment protocols. A full factorial design, in which the sample amount (400-800 mg), the extractant flow rate (0.5-1.5 mL min(-1)) and the extraction temperature (27-37°C) were selected as variables for the multivariate optimization studies in order to obtain the maximum TE extractability. Two soils of varied physicochemical properties were analysed and no significant differences were found at the 0.05 significance level between the summation of leached concentrations of TE in gastric juice plus the residual fraction and the total concentration of the overall assayed metals determined by microwave digestion. These results showed the reliability and lack of bias (trueness) of the automatic biomimetic extraction approach using digestive juices. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Scenario management and automated scenario generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

    2006-05-01

    The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4 th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

  13. Projection of Changes in Regional Climate and Air Quality in the Great Lakes Basin between 2000 and 2050 for the RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario using the GEM-AQ Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lupu, A.; Semeniuk, K.; McConnell, J. C.; Kaminski, J. W.; Toyota, K.; Neary, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality (GEM-AQ) model was run in global and limited area model (LAM) modes for the baseline year 2000 and one future year, 2050, on three different horizontal grids of increasing resolution from global (1.5°) to North American (LAM, 0.45°) to Ontario regional scale (LAM, 0.15°). For the future simulation we used the high greenhouse emissions scenario RCP8.5. Boundary conditions for the LAM runs were taken from the coarser resolution runs. All simulations had 54 vertical sigma-pressure hybrid levels from the ground to the stratopause (˜50 km), which should give a good representation of ozone injection to the troposphere from the stratosphere. The model uses the interactive land surface scheme ISBA. Sea surface and lake temperatures are prescribed, but ice cover is partially interactive based on prescribed fields. A lake model, FLAKE, was coupled to GEM-AQ in order to capture the impacts of the Great Lakes on the meteorology when the model is run at high resolution. For the Ontario regional simulation the interactive lake model allowed for self-consistent water temperatures and moisture fluxes. The simulation for the year 2000 shows that the model is able to reproduce the observed monthly surface temperatures across the US. The monthly surface ozone is reproduced at the level of detail of most other air quality models with year 2000 weather as opposed to a free run forced by SSTs. Our year 2050 simulation shows that ozone levels during the summer throughout most of Ontario and Canada will increase. Regions south of the latitude of Lake Superior will generally see decreased levels of summer (JJA) ozone, except for around large urban areas such as Toronto, Chicago and Montreal. However, NOx levels will decrease during the summer, reflecting decreased emissions. Ozone levels in the US will generally improve. Other indices rather than simple averages yield a different perspective. If the MDA8 ozone metric and NO2 one-hour 98th

  14. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

  16. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  17. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  18. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  19. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  20. A few scenarios still do not fit all

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa

    2018-05-01

    For integrated climate change research, the Scenario Matrix Architecture provides a tractable menu of possible emissions trajectories, socio-economic futures and policy environments. However, the future of decision support may lie in searchable databases.

  1. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    DOE PAGES

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; ...

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m X ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

  2. Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Pitcher, Hugh M.; Wigley, Tom M.

    2005-12-01

    The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latestmore » version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for IA modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In all cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.« less

  3. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  4. Considerations in linking energy scenario modeling and Life Cycle Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) has been exploring approaches for estimating U.S. anthropogenic air pollutant emissions through the mid-21st century. As a result, we have developed the Emission Scenario Projection methodology, or ESP. In this document, we pr...

  5. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008

  6. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  7. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  8. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  9. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  10. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  11. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  12. Climate-change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, Frederic H.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Baldwin, C.K.; Mearns, L.O.; Wagner, Frederic H.

    2003-01-01

    Three procedures were used to develop a set of plausible scenarios of anthropogenic climate change by the year 2100 that could be posed to the sectors selected for assessment (Fig. 2.2). First, a workshop of climatologists with expertise in western North American climates was convened from September 10-12, 1998 at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara, CA to discuss and propose a set of scenarios for the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin (RMGB) region.Secondly, the 20th-century climate record was analyzed to determine what trends might have occurred during the period. Since CO2 and other greenhouse gases increased during the century, it was reasonable to examine whether the changes projected for the 21st century had begun to appear during the 20th, at least qualitatively though not quantitatively.Third, on the assumption of a two-fold increase in atmospheric CO2 by 2100, climate-change scenarios for the 21st century were projected with two, state-of-the-art computer models that simulate the complex interactions between earth, atmosphere, and ocean to produce the earth’s climate system. Each of the last two procedures has its strengths and weaknesses, and each can function to some degree as a check on the other. The historical analysis has the advantage of using empirical measurements of actual climate change taken over an extensive network of measuring stations. These make it possible to subdivide a large region like the RMGB into subreqions to assess the uniformity of climate and climate change over the region. And the historical measurements can to some degree serve as a check on the GCM simulations when the two are compared over the same time period.

  13. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  14. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

    Treesearch

    Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

    2008-01-01

    We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable...

  15. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parson, E. A.

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  16. Climate scenarios for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.

  17. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  18. Modules: A New Tool in the Emissions Modeling Framework

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2017-08-14

    The Emissions Modeling Framework (EMF) is used by various organizations, including the US Environmental Protection Agency, to manage their emissions inventories, projections, and emissions modeling scenarios. Modules are a new tool under develo...

  19. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

  20. Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

    2016-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

  1. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  2. On black widow evolutionary scenarios for binary neutron stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eichler, David; Levinson, Amir

    1988-01-01

    The scenario whereby the pulsar 1957 + 20 ablates its companion by soft gamma-ray synchrotron emission (Ruderman et al., 1988) is critically examined, with particular regard to how the outflowing material, beginning at photospheric temperatures, is heated through the cooling barrier to coronal temperatures. Assuming the conductivity to be at most the Spitzer value, this consideration is found to constrain the mass flux more than two orders of magnitude more severely than merely considering cooling near the sonic point. This would imply that the ablation scenario fails by a large margin, even if the emission from the pulsar is beamed along the orbital plane.

  3. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to includemore » alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.« less

  4. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  5. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  6. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  7. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  8. When could global warming reach 4°C?

    PubMed

    Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

    2011-01-13

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon

  9. Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.; Streets, David G.

    2009-04-01

    This study examines the effects of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, and the resulting feedback to natural emissions and air quality. Speciated sector- and region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed to produce gas and particle emission inventories that followed Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 emission trajectories. Current and future climate model simulations were run, in which anthropogenic emission changes affected climate, which fed back to natural emissions from lightning (NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, H2O2, HO2, CO), soils (dust, bacteria, NO, N2O, H2, CH4, H2S, DMS, OCS, CS2), the ocean (bacteria, sea spray, DMS, N2O, H2, CH4), vegetation (pollen, spores, isoprene, monoterpenes, methanol, other VOCs), and photosynthesis/respiration. New methods were derived to calculate lightning flash rates as a function of size-resolved collisions and other physical principles and pollen, spore, and bacteria emissions. Although the B1 scenario was "cleaner" than the A1B scenario, global warming increased more in the B1 scenario because much A1B warming was masked by additional reflective aerosol particles. Thus neither scenario is entirely beneficial from a climate and health perspective, and the best control measure is to reduce warming gases and warming/cooling particles together. Lightning emissions declined by ˜3% in the B1 scenario and ˜12% in the A1B scenario as the number of ice crystals, thus charge-separating bounceoffs, decreased. Net primary production increased by ˜2% in both scenarios. Emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes increased by ˜1% in the A1B scenario and 4-5% in the B1 scenario. Near-surface ozone increased by ˜14% in the A1B scenario and ˜4% in the B1 scenario, reducing ambient isoprene in the latter case. Gases from soils increased in both scenarios due to higher temperatures. Near-surface PM2.5 mass increased by ˜2% in the A1B scenario and decreased by ˜2% in the B1 scenario. The resulting 1.4% higher

  10. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  11. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  12. The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.; Cogo, S.; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, A.

    2008-09-01

    This study is based on 30-year long simulations of the wind-wave field in the Mediterranean Sea carried out with the WAM model. Wave fields have been computed for the 2071-2100 period of the A2, B2 emission scenarios and for the 1961-1990 period of the present climate (REF). The wave model has been forced by the wind field computed by a regional climate model with 50 km resolution. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. The only exception is the presence of higher SWH extremes in the central Mediterranean during summer for the A2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  13. High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

  14. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  15. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  17. R modes and neutron star recycling scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chugunov, A. I.; Gusakov, M. E.; Kantor, E. M.

    2017-06-01

    To put new constraints on the r-mode instability window, we analyse the formation of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) within the recycling scenario, making use of three sets of observations: (a) X-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) in low-mass X-ray binaries; (b) timing of MSPs and (c) X-ray and UV observations of MSPs. As shown in previous works, r-mode dissipation by shear viscosity is not sufficient to explain observational set (a), and enhanced r-mode dissipation at the redshifted internal temperatures T ∞ ˜ 108 K is required to stabilize the observed NSs. Here, we argue that models with enhanced bulk viscosity can hardly lead to a self-consistent explanation of observational set (a) due to strong neutrino emission, which is typical for these models (unrealistically powerful energy source is required to keep NSs at the observed temperatures.). We also demonstrate that the observational set (b), combined with the theory of internal heating and NS cooling, provides evidence of enhanced r-mode dissipation at low temperatures, T ∞ ˜ 2 × 107 K. Observational set (c) allows us to set an upper limit on the internal temperatures of MSPs, T ∞ < 2 × 107 K (assuming a canonical NS with the accreted crust). Recycling scenario can produce MSPs at these temperatures only if r-mode instability is suppressed in the whole MSP spin frequency range (ν ≲ 750 Hz) at temperatures 2 × 107 ≲ T ∞ ≲ 3 × 107 K, providing thus a new constraint on the r-mode instability window. These observational constraints are analysed in more details in application to the resonance uplift scenario of Gusakov et al.

  18. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  19. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  20. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

  1. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  2. Global Futures: The Emerging Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seth, Satish C.

    1983-01-01

    Acknowledging global interdependence, especially in economics, may be the most important step toward resolving international conflicts. Describes seven major global dangers and gives scenarios for exploring likely global futures. As "tools of prescription" these global models are inadequate, but as "tools of analysis" they have…

  3. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  4. Projecting U.S. climate forcing and criteria pollutant emissions through 2050

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation highlighting a method for translating emission scenarios to model-ready emission inventories. The presentation highlights new features for spatially allocating emissions to counties and grid cells and identifies areas of potential improvement, such as updating tempor...

  5. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments

    PubMed Central

    Bierwagen, Britta G.; Theobald, David M.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V.; Morefield, Philip

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available. PMID:21078956

  6. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  8. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  9. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  10. Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    Thomason, Study Co-Lead Zachary S. Rabold, Sub-Task Lead Ylli Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario... Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual iii Preface This document reports the...vii Appendices A. Identifying Scenario Components...........................................................A-1 B . Acronyms

  11. Assessment of riverine load of contaminants to European seas under policy implementation scenarios: an example with 3 pilot substances.

    PubMed

    Marinov, Dimitar; Pistocchi, Alberto; Trombetti, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    An evaluation of conventional emission scenarios is carried out targeting a possible impact of European Union (EU) policies on riverine loads to the European seas for 3 pilot pollutants: lindane, trifluralin, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The policy scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical-specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures including business as usual (BAU), current trend (CT), partial implementation (PI), or complete ban (PI ban) of emissions. The scenario analyses show that the model-estimated lindane load of 745 t to European seas in 1995, based on the official emission data, would be reduced by 98.3% to approximately 12.5 t in 2005 (BAU scenario), 10 years after the start of the EU regulation of this chemical. The CT and PI ban scenarios indicate a reduction of sea loads of lindane in 2020 by 74% and 95%, respectively, when compared to the BAU estimate. For trifluralin, an annual load of approximately 61.7 t is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario), although the applied conservative assumptions related to pesticide use data availability in Europe. Under the PI (ban) scenario, assuming only small residual emissions of trifluralin, we estimate a sea loading of approximately 0.07 t/y. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated at approximately 5.8 t/y referred to 2007 (BAU scenario). Reducing the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of conventional scenarios or scenario typologies for emissions of contaminants using simple spatially explicit GIS-based models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of implementation of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets. © 2013 SETAC.

  12. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  13. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  14. TCL2 Ocean Scenario Replay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mohlenbrink, Christoph P.; Omar, Faisal Gamal; Homola, Jeffrey R.

    2017-01-01

    This is a video replay of system data that was generated from the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Technical Capability Level (TCL) 2 flight demonstration in Nevada and rendered in Google Earth. What is depicted in the replay is a particular set of flights conducted as part of what was referred to as the Ocean scenario. The test range and surrounding area are presented followed by an overview of operational volumes. System messaging is also displayed as well as a replay of all of the five test flights as they occurred.

  15. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

    PubMed

    Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

    2015-11-01

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

  16. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  17. On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Streets, D. G.; Bond, T. C.; Lee, T.; Jang, C.

    2004-12-01

    This paper presents the first model-based forecasts of future emissions of the primary carbonaceous aerosols, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The forecasts build on a recent 1996 inventory of emissions that contains detailed fuel, technology, sector, and world-region specifications. The forecasts are driven by four IPCC scenarios, A1B, A2, B1, and B2, out to 2030 and 2050, incorporating not only changing patterns of fuel use but also technology development. Emissions from both energy generation and open biomass burning are included. We project that global BC emissions will decline from 8.0 Tg in 1996 to 5.3-7.3 Tg by 2030 and to 4.3-6.1 Tg by 2050, across the range of scenarios. We project that OC emissions will decline from 34 Tg in 1996 to 24-30 Tg by 2030 and to 21-28 Tg by 2050. The introduction of advanced technology with lower emission rates, as well as a shift away from the use of traditional solid fuels in the residential sector, more than offsets the increased combustion of fossil fuels worldwide. Environmental pressures and a diminishing demand for new agricultural land lead to a slow decline in the amount of open biomass burning. Although emissions of BC and OC are generally expected to decline around the world, some regions, particularly South America, northern Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania, show increasing emissions in several scenarios. Particularly difficult to control are BC emissions from the transport sector, which increase under most scenarios. We expect that the BC/OC emission ratio for energy sources will rise from 0.5 to as much as 0.8, signifying a shift toward net warming of the climate system due to carbonaceous aerosols. When biomass burning is included, however, the BC/OC emission ratios are for the most part invariant across scenarios at about 0.2.

  18. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  19. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

  20. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  1. Development scenario for laser fusion

    SciTech Connect

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-03-30

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the earlymore » 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.« less

  2. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  3. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  4. Grand unified brane world scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arai, Masato; Blaschke, Filip; Eto, Minoru; Sakai, Norisuke

    2017-12-01

    We present a field theoretical model unifying grand unified theory (GUT) and brane world scenario. As a concrete example, we consider S U (5 ) GUT in 4 +1 dimensions where our 3 +1 dimensional spacetime spontaneously arises on five domain walls. A field-dependent gauge kinetic term is used to localize massless non-Abelian gauge fields on the domain walls and to assure the charge universality of matter fields. We find the domain walls with the symmetry breaking S U (5 )→S U (3 )×S U (2 )×U (1 ) as a global minimum and all the undesirable moduli are stabilized with the mass scale of MGUT. Profiles of massless standard model particles are determined as a consequence of wall dynamics. The proton decay can be exponentially suppressed.

  5. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing differentmore » techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to

  6. Combinatorial structure of genome rearrangements scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne

    2010-09-01

    In genome rearrangement theory, one of the elusive questions raised in recent years is the enumeration of rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. This problem is related to the uniform generation of rearrangement scenarios and the derivation of tests of statistical significance of the properties of these scenarios. Here we give an exact formula for the number of double-cut-and-join (DCJ) rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. We also construct effective bijections between the set of scenarios that sort a component as well studied combinatorial objects such as parking functions, labeled trees, and prüfer codes.

  7. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  8. NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Liu, H.; Xu, J. Y.; Fu, K.; Klimont, Z.; Hao, J. M.; He, K. B.; Cofala, J.; Amann, M.

    2013-10-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to

  9. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  10. Agricultural Baseline (BL0) scenario

    DOE Data Explorer

    Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinckel, Chad M [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154)

    2016-07-13

    Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the reference case for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios. The agricultural baseline runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used. Date the data set was last modified: 02/12/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: simulation was developed without offering a farmgate price to energy crops or residues (i.e., building on both the USDA 2015 baseline and the agricultural census data (USDA NASS 2014). Data generated are .txt output files by year, simulation identifier, county code (1-3109). Instruments used: POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B) supplied by the University of Tennessee APAC The quality assurance and quality control that have been applied: • Check for negative planted area, harvested area, production, yield and cost values. • Check if harvested area exceeds planted area for annuals. • Check FIPS codes.

  11. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment.

    PubMed

    Kunkel, Kenneth E; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  12. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    DOE PAGES

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scalesmore » and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.« less

  13. Air Pollutant Emissions Projections for the Cement and Steel Industry in China and the Impact of Emissions Control Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Hasanbeigi, Ali; Khanna, Nina; Price, Lynn

    China’s cement and steel industry accounts for approximately half of the world’s total cement and steel production. These two industries are two of the most energy-intensive and highest carbon dioxide (CO 2)-emitting industries and two of the key industrial contributors to air pollution in China. For example, the cement industry is the largest source of particulate matter (PM) emissions in China, accounting for 40 percent of its industrial PM emissions and 27 percent of its total national PM emissions. The Chinese steel industry contributed to approximately 20 percent of sulfur dioxide (SO 2) emissions and 27 percent of PM emissionsmore » for all key manufacturing industries in China in 2013. In this study, we analyzed and projected the total PM and SO2 emissions from the Chinese cement and steel industry from 2010–2050 under three different scenarios: a Base Case scenario, an Advanced scenario, and an Advanced EOP (end-of-pipe) scenario. We used bottom-up emissions control technologies data and assumptions to project the emissions. In addition, we conducted an economic analysis to estimate the cost for PM emissions reductions in the Chinese cement industry using EOP control technologies, energy efficiency measures, and product change measures. The results of the emissions projection showed that there is not a substantial difference in PM emissions between the Base Case and Advanced scenarios, for both the cement and steel industries. This is mainly because PM emissions in the cement industry caused mainly by production process and not the fuel use. Since our forecast for the cement production in the Base Case and Advanced scenarios are not too different from each other, this results in only a slight difference in PM emissions forecast for these two scenarios. Also, we assumed a similar share and penetration rate of control technologies from 2010 up to 2050 for these two scenarios for the cement and steel industry. However, the Advanced EOP scenario showed

  14. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  15. Air Quality Improvements of Increased Integration of Renewables: Solar Photovoltaics Penetration Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duran, P.; Holloway, T.; Brinkman, G.; Denholm, P.; Littlefield, C. M.

    2011-12-01

    Solar photovoltaics (PV) are an attractive technology because they can be locally deployed and tend to yield high production during periods of peak electric demand. These characteristics can reduce the need for conventional large-scale electricity generation, thereby reducing emissions of criteria air pollutants (CAPs) and improving ambient air quality with regard to such pollutants as nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and fine particulates. Such effects depend on the local climate, time-of-day emissions, available solar resources, the structure of the electric grid, and existing electricity production among other factors. This study examines the air quality impacts of distributed PV across the United States Eastern Interconnection. In order to accurately model the air quality impact of distributed PV in space and time, we used the National Renewable Energy Lab's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to form three unique PV penetration scenarios in which new PV construction is distributed spatially based upon economic drivers and natural solar resources. Those scenarios are 2006 Eastern Interconnection business as usual, 10% PV penetration, and 20% PV penetration. With the GridView (ABB, Inc) dispatch model, we used historical load data from 2006 to model electricity production and distribution for each of the three scenarios. Solar PV electric output was estimated using historical weather data from 2006. To bridge the gap between dispatch and air quality modeling, we will create emission profiles for electricity generating units (EGUs) in the Eastern Interconnection from historical Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data. Via those emissions profiles, we will create hourly emission data for EGUs in the Eastern Interconnect for each scenario during 2006. Those data will be incorporated in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. Initial results indicate that PV

  16. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

    PubMed

    Lane, Diana R; Ready, Richard C; Buddemeier, Robert W; Martinich, Jeremy A; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

  18. Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W.

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100. PMID:24391717

  19. Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.

    2012-06-01

    The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N2O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N2O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges.

  20. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J.; Kyle, Page; ...

    2017-02-27

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that applymore » a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.« less

  1. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J.; Kyle, Page

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that applymore » a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.« less

  2. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Mignone, Bryan K; Kheshgi, Haroon S

    2017-03-21

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. By contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.

  3. The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Liang, Qing; Strahan, Susan E.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

  4. Evaluating different scenarios for Tradable Green Certificates by game theory approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghaffari, Meysam; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

    2018-06-01

    Right now employment of polices and tools to decrease the carbon emission through electricity generation from renewable resources is one of the most important problem in energy policy. Tradable Green Certificate (TGC) is an economics mechanism to support green power generation. Any country has the challenge to choose an appropriate policy and mechanism for design and implementation of TGC. The purpose of this study is to help policy makers to design and choose the best scenario of TGC by evaluating six scenarios, based on game theory approach. This study will be useful for increasing the effectiveness of TGC system in interaction with electricity market. Particularly, the competition between thermal and renewable power plants is modeled by mathematical modeling tools such as cooperative games like Nash and Stackelberg. Each game is modeled by taking into account of the two following policies. The results of the six scenarios and the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters have been evaluated by numerical studies. Finally, in order to evaluate the scenarios we calculated the level of social welfare in the all scenarios. The results of all models demonstrate that when the green electricity share (minimum requirement) increases the TGC price decreases. Moreover, in all scenarios when the minimum requirement is 100% then the maximum level of social welfare is not met. Also when the minimum requirement is less than 50%, the scenarios with the market TGC price policy have more social welfare in comparison with the scenarios with fixed TGC price policy.

  5. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    PubMed

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  6. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  7. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  8. Design and Effects of Scenario Educational Software.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keegan, Mark

    1993-01-01

    Describes the development of educational computer software called scenario software that was designed to incorporate advances in cognitive, affective, and physiological research. Instructional methods are outlined; the need to change from didactic methods to discovery learning is explained; and scenario software design features are discussed. (24…

  9. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  10. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  11. Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

  12. Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

    PubMed Central

    Leufkens, H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F.; Bakker, A.; Dukes, G.

    1994-01-01

    Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future. PMID:7987110

  13. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  14. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    PubMed

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  15. Three dimensional inventories of aircraft emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.; Hertel, Peter S.

    1994-01-01

    Three dimensional inventories of fuel burned and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) have been developed on a 1 deg latitude by 1 deg longitude by 1 km altitude grid for scheduled commercial air traffic (passenger jet, cargo, and turboprop aircraft) for 1990 and projected to the year 2015. Emission scenarios have also been calculated for projected fleets of Mach 2 and Mach 2.4 high speed civil transports. The methodology and results are discussed. These emission inventories are now in use in the assessment of aircraft emissions impact by NASA.

  16. Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model v1.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zapata, Christina B.; Yang, Chris; Yeh, Sonia; Ogden, Joan; Kleeman, Michael J.

    2018-04-01

    The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step) scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors) that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i) on-road, (ii) rail and off-road, (iii) marine and aviation, (iv) residential and commercial, (v) electricity generation, and (vi) biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors) increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG-Step scenario vs

  17. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

    Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate

  18. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  19. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  20. Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

  1. Scenarios over the past 3 decades: air quality impact of European legislation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G. G. A.; Guizzardi, D.; Schaaf, E.; Muntean, M.; Dentener, F. J.; Sindelarova, K.; Granier, C.

    2014-12-01

    The impacts of air pollution span from local to global, affecting human health, climate, visibility and ecosystems. Several actions at national, regional and global scale have been adopted to reduce pollutant emission levels. In our work we make use of the EDGAR_ v4.3 emission database to compare today's pollutant levels with ex-post scenarios developed to assess the impact and effectiveness of legislation over the last 3 decades on air quality and climate. Differently from most of literature works addressing future air quality, here we focus on historical global anthropogenic emissions (years 1970-2010) of several gaseous and particulate air pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC) and past emission scenarios to demonstrate the role that policy has played in improving air quality. Three scenarios have been developed and compared to today's situation (year 2010), assuming the lack of abatement measures, the complete stagnation of technology (no reduction measures applied and constant emission factors from 1970), and a constant fuel mixture (with a more prominent role for coal in the 1970s). Special focus is dedicated to the power generation sector, manufacturing industry and road transport activities since these were mostly influenced by official regulations in the EU. Global SO2 emissions from transport dropped down by 8.5 times due to the deployment of low S content fuels; NOx and CO emissions are indeed a function of combustion efficiency and therefore decreased with the introduction of new technologies, while NH3 emitted by road transport increased in Europe by 18% due to the introduction of catalyzers. Finally, particulate matter emissions are mainly abated by the installation of End-of-Pipe measures (e.g. filters) especially in the energy and transport sectors.

  2. The Forecast of Baoding’s Industrial Structure in Different Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wei; Zhang, Hongzhi; Zhang, Shu

    2018-01-01

    In November 12th, 2014, Chinese government officially announced reaching the peak of CO2 emissions around 2030. Baoding, as one of the first low-carbon pilot cities in China, bore an important mission and set an example to other cities to reach the peak of carbon emissions before 2030. This paper employed a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the industrial structure and social welfare of Baoding in different scenarios. And the calculation results have shown that on the principle of the optimal industrial structure and the minimum social welfare loss and a consideration of industrial economic development, the best time of CO2 emissions peak for Baoding was 2025 when its total emissions would reach 2.84 million tons. Finally, some suggestions were given to guide this city to reduce carbon emissions in industrial development.

  3. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

  4. Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

    2007-12-01

    There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

  5. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  6. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  7. Scenarios for the Evolution of Asteroid Belts

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2012-11-01

    This illustration shows three possible scenarios for the evolution of asteroid belts. At the top, a Jupiter-size planet migrates through the asteroid belt, scattering material and inhibiting the formation of life on planets.

  8. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  9. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016963 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  10. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016965 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  11. Kondratyev and Skripochka during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016976 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonauts Dmitry Kondratyev (left) and Oleg Skripochka, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, look over a procedures manual during an emergency scenarios drill in the Harmony node of the International Space Station.

  12. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016970 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (right) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  13. TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

  14. Development and Validation of Videotaped Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Noel, Nora E.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Johnson, James D.; Jackson, Lee A.; Goings, Christopher D.; Hagman, Brett T.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios. PMID:18252938

  15. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  16. Photon and a preferred frame scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rembieliński, Jakub; Ciborowski, Jacek

    2018-06-01

    Structure of the space of photonic states is discussed in the context of a working hypothesis of existence of a preferred frame for photons. Two polarization experiments are proposed to test the preferred frame scenario.

  17. Future trends of global atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Junrui; Tian, Hezhong; Zhu, Chuanyong; Hao, Jiming; Gao, Jiajia; Wang, Yong; Xue, Yifeng; Hua, Shenbin; Wang, Kun

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents the scenario forecast of global atmospheric antimony (Sb) emissions from anthropogenic activities till 2050. The projection scenarios are built based on the comprehensive global antimony emission inventory for the period 1995-2010 which is reported in our previous study. Three scenarios are set up to investigate the future changes of global antimony emissions as well as their source and region contribution characteristics. Trends of activity levels specified as 5 primary source categories are projected by combining the historical trend extrapolation with EIA International energy outlook 2013, while the source-specific dynamic emission factors are determined by applying transformed normal distribution functions. If no major changes in the efficiency of emission control are introduced and keep current air quality legislations (Current Legislation scenario), global antimony emissions will increase by a factor of 2 between 2010 and 2050. The largest increase in Sb emissions is projected from Asia due to large volume of nonferrous metals production and waste incineration. In case of enforcing the pollutant emission standards (Strengthened Control scenario), global antimony emissions in 2050 will stabilize with that of 2010. Moreover, we can anticipate further declines in Sb emissions for all continents with the best emission control performances (Maximum Feasible Technological Reduction scenario). Future antimony emissions from the top 10 largest emitting countries have also been calculated and source category contributions of increasing emissions of these countries present significant diversity. Furthermore, global emission projections in 2050 are distributed within a 1° × 1°latitude/longitude grid. East Asia, Western Europe and North America present remarkable differences in emission intensity under the three scenarios, which implies that source-and-country specific control measures are necessary to be implemented for abating Sb emissions from

  18. New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

    2007-01-01

    A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

  19. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  20. Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

  1. Low Energy, Low Emissions: Sulfur Dioxide; Nitrogen Oxides, and Carbon Dioxide in Western Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alcamo, Joseph; De Vries, Bert

    1992-01-01

    Links proposed low-energy scenarios for different Western European countries with the amount of pollutants that may result from these scenarios. Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated for the 10 countries for which low-energy scenarios are available, resulting in reductions of 54%, 37%, and 40%, respectively.…

  2. Emissions Inventories

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document provides the details of emissions data processing done in support of the Environmental Protection Agency’s rulemaking effort for the Federal Transport Rule proposal (now known as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule).

  3. Ammonia emissions in Europe, part II: How ammonia emission abatement strategies affect secondary aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Backes, Anna M.; Aulinger, Armin; Bieser, Johannes; Matthias, Volker; Quante, Markus

    2016-02-01

    In central Europe, ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate make up a large fraction of fine particles which pose a threat to human health. Most studies on air pollution through particulate matter investigate the influence of emission reductions of sulphur- and nitrogen oxides on aerosol concentration. Here, we focus on the influence of ammonia (NH3) emissions. Emission scenarios have been created on the basis of the improved ammonia emission parameterization implemented in the SMOKE for Europe and CMAQ model systems described in part I of this study. This includes emissions based on future European legislation (the National Emission Ceilings) as well as a dynamic evaluation of the influence of different agricultural sectors (e.g. animal husbandry) on particle formation. The study compares the concentrations of NH3, NH4+, NO3 -, sulphur compounds and the total concentration of particles in winter and summer for a political-, technical- and behavioural scenario. It was found that a reduction of ammonia emissions by 50% lead to a 24% reduction of the total PM2.5 concentrations in northwest Europe. The observed reduction was mainly driven by reduced formation of ammonium nitrate. Moreover, emission reductions during winter had a larger impact than during the rest of the year. This leads to the conclusion that a reduction of the ammonia emissions from the agricultural sector related to animal husbandry could be more efficient than the reduction from other sectors due to its larger share in winter ammonia emissions.

  4. The Effect of Emissions Trading And Carbon Sequestration on The Cost Of CO2 Emissions Mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Mahasenan, Natesan; Scott, Michael J.; Smith, Steven J.

    2002-08-05

    The deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CC&S) technologies is greatly affected by the marginal cost of controlling carbon emissions (also the value of carbon, when emissions permits are traded). Emissions limits that are more stringent in the near term imply higher near-term carbon values and therefore encourage the local development and deployment of CC&S technologies. In addition, trade in emissions obligations lowers the cost of meeting any regional or global emissions limit and so affects the rate of penetration of CC&S technologies. We examine the effects of the availability of sequestration opportunities and emissions trading (either within select regionsmore » or globally) on the cost of emissions mitigation and compliance with different emissions reduction targets for the IPCC SRES scenarios. For each base scenario and emissions target, we examine the issues outlined above and present quantitative estimates for the impacts of trade and the availability of sequestration opportunities in meeting emissions limitation obligations.« less

  5. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

  6. The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

    SciTech Connect

    Davidson, Casie L.; Dahowski, Robert T.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that,more » as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.« less

  7. Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in RCP-like scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vliet, Jasper

    2013-04-01

    Estimation of future emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols from human activities is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), however, all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented in the coming decades. In this study, we therefore explore the consequences of four alternative emission scenarios generated using the IMAGE integrated assessment model following the methods used to generate the RCPs. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W/m2 and 6.0 W/m2 (the high air pollution variants assume no improvement in emission factors, representing a hypothetical upper end of emission levels). Analysis using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 shows that climate mitigation and air pollution control policy variants studied here have similar large-scale effects on the concentrations of ozone and black carbon; the impact of climate policy, however, has a stronger impact on sulphate concentrations. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate already in 2020, and on the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other at the global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W/m2 in the 6.0 W/m2 scenario and -0.16 W/m2 in the 2.6 W/m2 scenario.

  8. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario...

  10. Design scenarios for renovation of sports complex: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nižetić, S.

    2018-02-01

    This paper elaborates design scenarios for a sports complex in Croatia from a technical and economic aspect. Different energy options are analysed and two are additionally addressed and discussed as the most viable ones. The possibilities of sports complex renovation are shown by properly choosing the appropriate energy concept and thus reducing the overall cost for produced thermal energy by around 33% and reducing the carbon dioxide emission by a factor of 1.8 in comparison with its present state. Finally, this study presents an example of good practice, where renewable energy solutions can be proposed and where it is possible to cover around 70-80% of overall yearly costs from achieved energy savings for the novel plant that is assumed to be financed through a bank loan.

  11. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  12. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  13. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  14. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  15. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processesmore » will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.« less

  16. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gernaat, David; Calvin, Katherine V.; Lucas, Paul

    2015-07-01

    The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In ordermore » to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, less reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.« less

  17. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2012-12-01

    Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push.more » In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.« less

  18. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segnalini, M.; Bernabucci, U.; Vitali, A.; Nardone, A.; Lacetera, N.

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

  19. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin.

    PubMed

    Segnalini, M; Bernabucci, U; Vitali, A; Nardone, A; Lacetera, N

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

  20. Air quality impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Texas: evaluating three battery charging scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Tammy M.; King, Carey W.; Allen, David T.; Webber, Michael E.

    2011-04-01

    The air quality impacts of replacing approximately 20% of the gasoline-powered light duty vehicle miles traveled (VMT) with electric VMT by the year 2018 were examined for four major cities in Texas: Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) charging was assumed to occur on the electric grid controlled by the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and three charging scenarios were examined: nighttime charging, charging to maximize battery life, and charging to maximize driver convenience. A subset of electricity generating units (EGUs) in Texas that were found to contribute the majority of the electricity generation needed to charge PHEVs at the times of day associated with each scenario was modeled using a regional photochemical model (CAMx). The net impacts of the PHEVs on the emissions of precursors to the formation of ozone included an increase in NOx emissions from EGUs during times of day when the vehicle is charging, and a decrease in NOx from mobile emissions. The changes in maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations and average exposure potential at twelve air quality monitors in Texas were predicted on the basis of these changes in NOx emissions. For all scenarios, at all monitors, the impact of changes in vehicular emissions, rather than EGU emissions, dominated the ozone impact. In general, PHEVs lead to an increase in ozone during nighttime hours (due to decreased scavenging from both vehicles and EGU stacks) and a decrease in ozone during daytime hours. A few monitors showed a larger increase in ozone for the convenience charging scenario versus the other two scenarios. Additionally, cumulative ozone exposure results indicate that nighttime charging is most likely to reduce a measure of ozone exposure potential versus the other two scenarios.

  1. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  2. Characteristics of hybrid scenarios in KSTAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Youngho; Byun, Cheol-Sik; Na, Yong-Su; Kstar Team

    2017-10-01

    We report the characteristics of hybrid scenarios under development in KSTAR. Firstly, detailed definition of the hybrid scenario in KSTAR is described and categorized according to the MHD activities. The discharges exhibiting H89 >1.9, betaN >2.2 sustained more than 5*tauE at q95 <6.5 without or mild sawtooth are classified into the hybrid regime. Fishbones and neoclassical tearing modes are usually observed in this regime. Improved confinement in this regime is also confirmed with comparing general H-mode in KSTAR. Secondly, several experimental approaches are presented to access the hybrid regime. Here, four different recipes are described. Thirdly, the origin of the confinement enhancement is discussed. The role of the plasma rotation is found to be small in experiments where electron cyclotron heating is applied to reduce the toroidal rotation. The pedestal enhancement is thought to be the main reason for the confinement improvement in KSTAR hybrid scenarios.

  3. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  4. A scenario elicitation methodology to identify the drivers of electricity infrastructure cost in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moksnes, Nandi; Taliotis, Constantinos; Broad, Oliver; de Moura, Gustavo; Howells, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Developing a set of scenarios to assess a proposed policy or future development pathways requires a certain level of information, as well as establishing the socio-economic context. As the future is difficult to predict, great care in defining the selected scenarios is needed. Even so it can be difficult to assess if the selected scenario is covering the possible solution space. Instead, this paper's methodology develops a large set of scenarios (324) in OSeMOSYS using the SAMBA 2.0 (South America Model Base) model to assess long-term electricity supply scenarios and applies a scenario-discovery statistical data mining algorithm, Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). By creating a multidimensional space, regions related to high and low cost can be identified as well as their key driver. The six key drivers are defined a priori in three (high, medium, low) or two levers (high, low): 1) Demand projected from GDP, population, urbanization and transport, 2) Fossil fuel price, 3) Climate change impact on hydropower, 4) Renewable technology learning rate, 5) Discount rate, 6) CO2 emission targets.

  5. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  6. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  7. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  8. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  9. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  10. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  11. Convoy Protection under Multi-Threat Scenario

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-06-01

    14. SUBJECT TERMS antisubmarine warfare, convoy protection, screening, design of experiments, agent-based simulation 15. NUMBER OF...46 5. Scenarios 33–36 (Red Submarine Tactic-2) ...............................46 IV. DESIGN OF EXPERIMENT...47 C. NEARLY ORTHOGONAL LATIN HYPERCUBE DESIGN ............51 V. DATA ANALYSIS

  12. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  13. The Scenario of Gifted Education in Brazil

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wechsler, Solange Muglia; Fleith, Denise de Souza

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of gifted education in Brazil. A scenario of the education of the gifted is presented, including the official concept of giftedness as well as programs and services available to emphasize important contributions to the area. Although there are considerable advances regarding policies, practices,…

  14. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  15. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  16. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  17. A Scenario for the Future of Museums

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunningham, Mary Kay

    2009-01-01

    More than any other staff member, museum educators' knowledge and experience working with visitors make them uniquely qualified to take on leadership roles as museums transform themselves into lifelong learning organizations. The article encourages museum educators to initiate discussions about change by offering a fictional scenario of future…

  18. Chemical Data Reporting Byproduct and Recycling Scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document addresses a series of 18 industry scenarios and questions related to EPA’s Chemical Data Reporting (CDR) rule. The primary goal of this document is to help the regulated community comply with the requirements of the CDR rule.

  19. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  20. Assessment of Pneumatic Controller Emission Measurements ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) production facilities have the potential to emit greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and other hydrocarbons (HCs) to the atmosphere. ONG production sites have multiple emission sources including storage tank venting, enclosed combustion devices, engine exhaust, pneumatic controllers and uncontrolled leaks. Accounting for up to 37.8 percent of CH4 emissions, pneumatic controllers are one of the most significant sources of CH4 in ONG production field operations. Recent measurement studies used the only commercially-available high volume sampling (HVS) technology (Bacharach Hi Flow Sampler, Bacharach, Inc., New Kensington, PA) to quantify CH4 emission rates of pneumatic devices on ONG production pads and compare to inventory estimates. Other studies indicate that this HVS may malfunction, causing underestimates of emissions in certain scenarios encountered in ONG production and should not be used for some sources such as heavy emissions from condensate storage tanks. The HVS malfunction can occur on relatively large emissions, where the measured leak concentrations exceed 5%, and is ascribed to a sensor transition failure in the instrument. The HVS malfunction is believed to be exacerbated by several factors (large emission rates, amount of non-CH4 HCs in the emission stream, non-optimal HVS calibration frequency, firmware, and emission measurement coupling geometries). The degree to which HVS measurements of emissions from pneumatic co

  1. Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, under different policy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Sumarga, Elham; Hein, Lars

    Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.

  2. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  3. Generating moment matching scenarios using optimization techniques

    DOE PAGES

    Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, Dávid

    2013-05-16

    An optimization based method is proposed to generate moment matching scenarios for numerical integration and its use in stochastic programming. The main advantage of the method is its flexibility: it can generate scenarios matching any prescribed set of moments of the underlying distribution rather than matching all moments up to a certain order, and the distribution can be defined over an arbitrary set. This allows for a reduction in the number of scenarios and allows the scenarios to be better tailored to the problem at hand. The method is based on a semi-infinite linear programming formulation of the problem thatmore » is shown to be solvable with polynomial iteration complexity. A practical column generation method is implemented. The column generation subproblems are polynomial optimization problems; however, they need not be solved to optimality. It is found that the columns in the column generation approach can be efficiently generated by random sampling. The number of scenarios generated matches a lower bound of Tchakaloff's. The rate of convergence of the approximation error is established for continuous integrands, and an improved bound is given for smooth integrands. Extensive numerical experiments are presented in which variants of the proposed method are compared to Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods on both numerical integration problems and stochastic optimization problems. The benefits of being able to match any prescribed set of moments, rather than all moments up to a certain order, is also demonstrated using optimization problems with 100-dimensional random vectors. Here, empirical results show that the proposed approach outperforms Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo based approaches on the tested problems.« less

  4. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  5. Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China

    PubMed Central

    Matsumoto, Ken’ichi

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks. PMID:26660094

  6. Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) Scenarios, Climate Effects and the Montreal Protocol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velders, G. J. M.; Fahey, D. W.; Daniel, J. S.

    2016-12-01

    The Montreal Protocol has reduced the use of ozone-depleting substances by more than 95% from its peak levels in the 1980s. As a direct result the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as substitute compounds has increased significantly. National regulations to limit HFC use have been adopted recently in the European Union, Japan and USA, and four proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. The Parties of the Montreal Protocol have discussed these proposals during their meetings in 2016. The effects of the national regulations and Montreal Protocol amendment proposals on climate forcings and surface temperatures will be presented. Global scenarios of HFC emissions reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050, which corresponds to a projected growth from 2015 to 2050 which is 9% to 29% of that for CO2 over the same time period. In 2050, in percent of global HFC emissions, China ( 30%), India and the rest of Asia ( 25%), Middle East and northern Africa ( 10%), and USA ( 10%) are the principal source regions; and refrigeration and stationary air conditioning are the major use sectors. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. This corresponds to a reduction in surface temperature attributed to HFCs from 0.1 oC to 0.04 oC in 2050 and from 0.3-0.4 oC to 0.02 oC in 2100.

  7. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic withinmore » each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm –2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.« less

  8. ESP 2.0: Improved method for projecting U.S. GHG and air pollution emissions through 2055

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method is used to develop multi-decadal projections of U.S. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and criteria pollutant emissions. The resulting future-year emissions can then translated into an emissions inventory and applied in climate and air quality mod...

  9. Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

    2010-10-12

    Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

  10. Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

    2018-02-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

  11. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  12. Community Solar Scenario Tool | Integrated Energy Solutions | NREL

    Science.gov Websites

    Community Solar Scenario Tool Community Solar Scenario Tool The Community Solar Scenario Tool (CSST ) provides a "first cut" analysis of different community or shared solar program options. NREL sponsoring utility. Community Solar Scenario Tool -Beta Version Available as a Microsoft Excel file, which

  13. Atmospheric modeling to assess wind dependence in tracer dilution method measurements of landfill methane emissions.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Diane M; Chow, Fotini K; Delkash, Madjid; Imhoff, Paul T

    2018-03-01

    The short-term temporal variability of landfill methane emissions is not well understood due to uncertainty in measurement methods. Significant variability is seen over short-term measurement campaigns with the tracer dilution method (TDM), but this variability may be due in part to measurement error rather than fluctuations in the actual landfill emissions. In this study, landfill methane emissions and TDM-measured emissions are simulated over a real landfill in Delaware, USA using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) for two emissions scenarios. In the steady emissions scenario, a constant landfill emissions rate is prescribed at each model grid point on the surface of the landfill. In the unsteady emissions scenario, emissions are calculated at each time step as a function of the local surface wind speed, resulting in variable emissions over each 1.5-h measurement period. The simulation output is used to assess the standard deviation and percent error of the TDM-measured emissions. Eight measurement periods are simulated over two different days to look at different conditions. Results show that standard deviation of the TDM- measured emissions does not increase significantly from the steady emissions simulations to the unsteady emissions scenarios, indicating that the TDM may have inherent errors in its prediction of emissions fluctuations. Results also show that TDM error does not increase significantly from the steady to the unsteady emissions simulations. This indicates that introducing variability to the landfill emissions does not increase errors in the TDM at this site. Across all simulations, TDM errors range from -15% to 43%, consistent with the range of errors seen in previous TDM studies. Simulations indicate diurnal variations of methane emissions when wind effects are significant, which may be important when developing daily and annual emissions estimates from limited field data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Two alternative solar energy scenarios for Western Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakicenovic, N.

    1982-11-01

    Two limiting scenarios that lead to a sustainable energy system in Western Europe toward the end of the next century are described. The scenarios consider exclusively solar energy futures: one based on centralized solar technologies (hard scenario) and the other on decentralized user-oriented technologies (soft scenario). While both scenarios eliminate Western Europe's dependence on domestic and foreign fossil energy sources, the hard solar scenario requires substantial imports of solar produced hydrogen. Fundamental but different changes of the whole energy system, economic structure and lifestyles are necessary in order to achieve sustainable solar energy futures in the scenarios.

  15. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

  16. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  17. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-05

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

  18. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    PubMed

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. © 2011 IEEE

  19. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  20. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example.more » The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.« less

  1. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories.

    PubMed

    Brown, M J; Crouch, E

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km2 of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the water are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  2. Sampling and counting genome rearrangement scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Even for moderate size inputs, there are a tremendous number of optimal rearrangement scenarios, regardless what the model is and which specific question is to be answered. Therefore giving one optimal solution might be misleading and cannot be used for statistical inferring. Statistically well funded methods are necessary to sample uniformly from the solution space and then a small number of samples are sufficient for statistical inferring. Contribution In this paper, we give a mini-review about the state-of-the-art of sampling and counting rearrangement scenarios, focusing on the reversal, DCJ and SCJ models. Above that, we also give a Gibbs sampler for sampling most parsimonious labeling of evolutionary trees under the SCJ model. The method has been implemented and tested on real life data. The software package together with example data can be downloaded from http://www.renyi.hu/~miklosi/SCJ-Gibbs/ PMID:26452124

  3. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  4. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  5. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes. PMID:27733963

  6. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

    PubMed

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-08-31

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  7. CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

  8. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-01

    Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software ...Homeland Security under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally...DISTRIBUTES IT “AS IS.” References herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trade mark, manufacturer, or otherwise

  9. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    PubMed Central

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  10. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    PubMed

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  11. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  12. Potential future scenarios for Australia's native biodiversity given on-going increases in human population.

    PubMed

    Pepper, D A; Lada, Hania; Thomson, James R; Bakar, K Shuvo; Lake, P S; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2017-01-15

    Most natural assets, including native biodiversity (our focus), are under increasing threat from direct (loss of habitat, hunting) and indirect (climate change) human actions. Most human impacts arise from increasing human populations coupled with rises in per capita resource use. The rates of change of human actions generally outpace those to which the biota can respond or adapt. If we are to maintain native biodiversity, then we must develop ways to envisage how the biota may be affected over the next several decades to guide management and policy responses. We consider the future for Australia's native biodiversity in the context of two assumptions. First, the human population in Australia will be 40million by 2050, which has been mooted by federal government agencies. Second, greenhouse gas emissions will track the highest rates considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The scenarios are based on major drivers of change, which were constructed from seven key drivers of change pertinent to native biodiversity. Five scenarios deal with differing distributions of the human population driven by uncertainties in climate change and in the human responses to climate change. Other scenarios are governed largely by global change and explore different rates of resource use, unprecedented rates of technological change, capabilities and societal values. A narrative for each scenario is provided. The set of scenarios spans a wide range of possible future paths for Australia, with different implications for the future of native biodiversity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Vietnam's forest transition in retrospect: demonstrating weaknesses in business-as-usual scenarios for REDD.

    PubMed

    Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2015-05-01

    One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

  14. Vietnam's Forest Transition in Retrospect: Demonstrating Weaknesses in Business-as-Usual Scenarios for REDD+

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2015-05-01

    One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

  15. Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

  16. Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.

    2006-09-26

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period,more » April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.« less

  17. Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

  18. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Melaina, W.; Heath, Garvin; Sandor, Debra

    2013-04-01

    The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect tomore » four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.« less

  19. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  20. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

  1. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally

    2014-06-01

    This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken heremore » is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.« less

  2. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  3. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  4. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  5. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    SciTech Connect

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications; Ekener, Elisabeth

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach,more » and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.« less

  6. Renewable energy scenario in India: Opportunities and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sen, Souvik; Ganguly, Sourav; Das, Ayanangshu; Sen, Joyjeet; Dey, Sourav

    2016-10-01

    Majority of the power generation in India is carried out by conventional energy sources, coal and fossil fuels being the primary ones, which contribute heavily to greenhouse gas emission and global warming. The Indian power sector is witnessing a revolution as excitement grips the nation about harnessing electricity from various renewable energy sources. Electricity generation from renewable sources is increasingly recognized to play an important role for the achievement of a variety of primary and secondary energy policy goals, such as improved diversity and security of energy supply, reduction of local pollutant and global greenhouse gas emissions, regional and rural development, and exploitation of opportunities for fostering social cohesion, value addition and employment generation at the local and regional level. This focuses the solution of the energy crisis on judicious utilization of abundant the renewable energy resources, such as biomass, solar, wind, geothermal and ocean tidal energy. This paper reviews the renewable energy scenario of India as well as extrapolates the future developments keeping in view the consumption, production and supply of power. Research, development, production and demonstration have been carried out enthusiastically in India to find a feasible solution to the perennial problem of power shortage for the past three decades. India has obtained application of a variety of renewable energy technologies for use in different sectors too. There are ample opportunities with favorable geology and geography with huge customer base and widening gap between demand and supply. Technological advancement, suitable regulatory policies, tax rebates, efficiency improvement in consequence to R&D efforts are the few pathways to energy and environment conservation and it will ensure that these large, clean resource bases are exploited as quickly and cost effectively as possible. This paper gives an overview of the potential renewable energy resources

  7. Elimination of Hepatitis Viruses: Bangladesh Scenario.

    PubMed

    Al Mahtab, Mamun

    2017-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) has adopted targets unanimously at the World Health Assembly in July 2016, in Geneva, to significantly curtail hepatitis B and C viruses to near extinction by 2030. Preparations are now ongoing in all WHO member nations across the globe to reach this ambitious, but perhaps achievable target. In Bangladesh, hepatologists, nongovernmental organizations, civil society, and patients have joined hands with the government in this global fight against viral hepatitis. How to cite this article: Mahtab MA. Elimination of Hepatitis Viruses: Bangladesh Scenario. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2017;7(1):40-42.

  8. Illustrative national scale scenarios of environmental and human health impacts of Carbon Capture and Storage.

    PubMed

    Tzanidakis, Konstantinos; Oxley, Tim; Cockerill, Tim; ApSimon, Helen

    2013-06-01

    Integrated Assessment, and the development of strategies to reduce the impacts of air pollution, has tended to focus only upon the direct emissions from different sources, with the indirect emissions associated with the full life-cycle of a technology often overlooked. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) reflects a number of new technologies designed to reduce CO2 emissions, but which may have much broader environmental implications than greenhouse gas emissions. This paper considers a wider range of pollutants from a full life-cycle perspective, illustrating a methodology for assessing environmental impacts using source-apportioned effects based impact factors calculated by the national scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM). Contrasting illustrative scenarios for the deployment of CCS towards 2050 are presented which compare the life-cycle effects of air pollutant emissions upon human health and ecosystems of business-as-usual, deployment of CCS and widespread uptake of IGCC for power generation. Together with estimation of the transboundary impacts we discuss the benefits of an effects based approach to such assessments in relation to emissions based techniques. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Collapse scenarios in magnetized star-forming regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juarez, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    -forming regions. During the project we studied the magnetic field from the polarized emission of the dust and also the kinematics of the gas from the molecular line emission of the different tracers of dense gas. From the molecular emission of the gas tracing the envelope of the dense core, we see two different velocity structures separated by 2 km/s and converging towards the potential well in the region. In addition, the magnetic field also presents a bimodal pattern following the distribution of the two velocity structures. Finally, we compared the observational results with 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of star-forming regions dominated by gravity. The last project is the study of a lower-mass star-forming region, L1287. From the data obtained with the SMA, the dust continuum structure shows six main dense cores with masses between 0.4 and 4 solar masses. The dense gas tracer DCN(3- 2) shows two velocity structures separated by 2-3 km/s, converging towards the highest-density region, the young stellar object IRAS 00338+6312, in a similar scenario to the one observed in the higher-mass case of NGC6334V. Finally, the studies of the pre-stellar core FeSt1-457 and the massive region NGC6334V, show how the magnetic field has been overcome by gravity and is not enough to avoid the gravitational collapse. In addition, NGC6334V and the lower- mass region L1287 present very similar scenarios with the material converging from large scales ( 0.1 pc) to the potential wells of both regions at smaller scales ( 0.02 pc) through two dense gas flows separated by 2-3 km/s. In a similar scenario, FeSt1-457 is located just in the region where two dense gas structures separated by 3 km/s appear to converge.

  10. Estimation of vehicular emissions using dynamic emission factors: A case study of Delhi, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Dhirendra; Goyal, P.

    2014-12-01

    The estimation of vehicular emissions depends mainly on the values of emission factors, which are used for the development of a comprehensive emission inventory of vehicles. In this study the variations of emission factors as well as the emission rates have been studied in Delhi. The implementation of compressed natural gas (CNG), in the diesel and petrol, public vehicles in the year 2001 has changed the complete air quality scenario of Delhi. The dynamic emission factors of criteria pollutants viz. carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and particulate matter (PM10) for all types of vehicles have been developed after, which are based on the several factors such as regulated emission limits, number of vehicle deterioration, vehicle increment, vehicle age etc. These emission factors are found to be decreased continuously throughout the study years 2003-2012. The International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) model is used to estimate the emissions of criteria pollutants by utilizing a dataset available from field observations at different traffic intersections in Delhi. Thus the vehicular emissions, based on dynamic emission factors have been estimated for the years 2003-2012, which are found to be comparable with the monitored concentrations at different locations in Delhi. It is noticed that the total emissions of CO, NOx, and PM10 are increased by 45.63%, 68.88% and 17.92%, respectively up to the year 2012 and the emissions of NOx and PM10 are grown continuously with an annual average growth rate of 5.4% and 1.7% respectively.

  11. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander

    Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

  12. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

    DOE PAGES

    Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; ...

    2016-08-18

    Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

  13. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documentsmore » data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.« less

  14. Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-08-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  15. Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-01-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  16. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  17. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    PubMed

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; ...

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenariosmore » with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale M H± to the scale M S. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  19. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenariosmore » with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale M H± to the scale M S. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  20. Assessment of Drought Scenario in Western Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, V. P.; Khatiwada, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    Drought is a frequent phenomenon in relatively drier western Nepal. Lack of hydro-climatic information with wider spatial coverage is hindering effective assessment of the drought events. Furthermore, drought assessment is not getting adequate attention in Nepal. This study aims to develop drought scenario for Western Nepal by evaluating various types of drought indices in Karnali River Basin (area = 4,6150 km2) and recommend the most suited set of indices for data-poor regions. On the climatic data at ten stations, drought indices were calculated from following seven selected indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), (self-calibrating) Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI), and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI). Initial results reflect that the basin is affected by severe meteorological drought. Most of the indices show the extreme dryness scenario during the years 1984-85, 1992-93, 1995, 2000, 20002, 2008-09, and 2012. The results from the stations with long-term temperature and precipitation data sets showed a higher (up to 0.9) correlation between SPI and RDI than for SPEI and other Palmer Drought Indices, which ranged from 0.6 to 0.8 only. This suggests ability of SPI to represent magnitude and duration of the drought events fairly well in the study basin, and therefore, has potential to represent drought dynamics in data-poor regions. Keywords: Drought; Karnali River Basin; Nepal Himalaya

  1. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors. The performance measures include error analysis, coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and a new weighted rank method. These performance metrics only provide useful information about the overall model performance. Note that MPESA is based on the separation of observed and simulated time series into magnitude and sequence components. The separation of time series into magnitude and sequence components and the reconstruction back to time series provides diagnostic insights to modelers. For example, traditional approaches lack the capability to identify if the source of uncertainty in the simulated data is due to the quality of the input data or the way the analyst adjusted the model parameters. This report presents a suite of model diagnostics that identify if mismatches between observed and simulated data result from magnitude or sequence related errors. MPESA offers graphical and statistical options that allow HSPF users to compare observed and simulated time series and identify the parameter values to adjust or the input data to modify. The scenario analysis part of the too

  2. Potential acidification impacts on zooplankton in CCS leakage scenarios.

    PubMed

    Halsband, Claudia; Kurihara, Haruko

    2013-08-30

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies involve localized acidification of significant volumes of seawater, inhabited mainly by planktonic species. Knowledge on potential impacts of these techniques on the survival and physiology of zooplankton, and subsequent consequences for ecosystem health in targeted areas, is scarce. The recent literature has a focus on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, leading to enhanced absorption of CO2 by the oceans and a lowered seawater pH, termed ocean acidification. These studies explore the effects of changes in seawater chemistry, as predicted by climate models for the end of this century, on marine biota. Early studies have used unrealistically severe CO2/pH values in this context, but are relevant for CCS leakage scenarios. Little studied meso- and bathypelagic species of the deep sea may be especially vulnerable, as well as vertically migrating zooplankton, which require significant residence times at great depths as part of their life cycle. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Signatures of neutrino cooling in the SN1987A scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraija, N.; Bernal, C. G.; Hidalgo-Gaméz, A. M.

    2014-07-01

    The neutrino signal from SN1987A confirmed the core-collapse scenario and the possible formation of a neutron star. Although this compact object has eluded all observations, theoretical and numerical developments have allowed a glimpse of the fate of it. In particular, a hypercritical accretion model has been proposed to forecast the accretion of ˜0.15 M⊙ in two hours and the subsequent submergence of the magnetic field in the newborn neutron star. In this paper, we revisit Chevalier's model in a numerical framework, focusing on the neutrino cooling effect on the supernova fall-back dynamics. For that, using a customized version of the FLASH code, we carry out numerical simulations of the accretion of matter on to the newborn neutron star in order to estimate the size of the neutrino-sphere, the emissivity and luminosity of neutrinos. As a signature of this phase, we estimate the neutrinos expected on SK neutrino experiment and their flavour ratios. This is academically important because, although currently it was very difficult to detect 1.46 thermal neutrinos and their oscillations, these fingerprints are the only viable and reliable way to confirm the hypercritical phase. Perhaps new techniques for detecting neutrino oscillations will arise in the near future allowing us to confirm our estimates.

  4. Methane emission estimation from landfills in Korea (1978-2004): quantitative assessment of a new approach.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyun-Sun; Yi, Seung-Muk

    2009-01-01

    Quantifying methane emission from landfills is important to evaluating measures for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To quantify GHG emissions and identify sensitive parameters for their measurement, a new assessment approach consisting of six different scenarios was developed using Tier 1 (mass balance method) and Tier 2 (the first-order decay method) methodologies for GHG estimation from landfills, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Methane emissions using Tier 1 correspond to trends in disposed waste amount, whereas emissions from Tier 2 gradually increase as disposed waste decomposes over time. The results indicate that the amount of disposed waste and the decay rate for anaerobic decomposition were decisive parameters for emission estimation using Tier 1 and Tier 2. As for the different scenarios, methane emissions were highest under Scope 1 (scenarios I and II), in which all landfills in Korea were regarded as one landfill. Methane emissions under scenarios III, IV, and V, which separated the dissimilated fraction of degradable organic carbon (DOC(F)) by waste type and/or revised the methane correction factor (MCF) by waste layer, were underestimated compared with scenarios II and III. This indicates that the methodology of scenario I, which has been used in most previous studies, may lead to an overestimation of methane emissions. Additionally, separate DOC(F) and revised MCF were shown to be important parameters for methane emission estimation from landfills, and revised MCF by waste layer played an important role in emission variations. Therefore, more precise information on each landfill and careful determination of parameter values and characteristics of disposed waste in Korea should be used to accurately estimate methane emissions from landfills.

  5. Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, T. R.

    2013-12-01

    In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide

  6. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  7. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect

    Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-11-15

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment wasmore » ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.« less

  8. Various problems in lunar habitat construction scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, Keiji; Ohtsubo, Koji; Oguchi, Mitsuo; Ohya, Haruhiko; Kanbe, Seiichiro; Ashida, Akira; Sano, Kenichi

    1991-10-01

    Many papers describing the lunar base construction have been published previously. Lunar base has been considered to be a useful facility to conduct future scientific programs and to get new nuclear energy resource, namely 3He, for defending the environmental collapse on Earth and also to develop lunar resources such as oxygen and nitrogen for extending human activities in space more economically. The scale of the lunar base and the construction methods adopted are determined by the scenario of a lunar utilization program but constrained by the availability of the established space transportation technologies. As indicated in the scenarios described in papers regarding lunar base construction, the first steps of lunar missions are the investigation of lunar itself for conducting scientific research and for surveying the lunar base construction sites, the second steps are the outpost construction for conducting man-tended missions, for more precise scientific research and studying the lunar base construction methods, and third steps are the construction of a permanent base and the expansion of this lunar base for exploiting lunar resources. The missions within the first and second steps are all possible using the ferry (OTV) similar to the service and command modules of Apollo Spacecraft because all necessary weights to be landed on the lunar surface for these missions seem to be under the equivalent weight of the Apollo Lunar Lander. On the other hand, the permanent facilities constructed on the lunar surface in the third step requires larger quantities of construction materials to be transported from Earth, and a new ferry (advanced OTV) having higher transportation ability, at least above 6 times, compared with Apollo Service and Command Modules, are to be developed. The largest problems in the permament lunar base construction are related to the food production facilities, 30-40 m 2 plant cultivation area per person are required for providing the nutrition

  9. Multiple greenhouse gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stocker, Benjamin; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri; Prentice, Colin

    2013-04-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere. The sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since preindustrial times and leads to multiple feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system. The strength of these feedbacks is determined by (i) the sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 and (ii) the greenhouse warming potential of the respective gas. Here, we quantify feedbacks from CO2, CH4, N2O, and land surface albedo in a consistent and comprehensive framework based on a large set of simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The modeled sensitivities of CH4 and N2O emissions are tested, demonstrating that independent data for non-land (anthropogenic, oceanic, etc.) GHG emissions, combined with simulated emissions from natural and agricultural land reproduces historical atmospheric budgets within their uncertainties. 21st-century scenarios for climate, land use change and reactive nitrogen inputs (Nr) are applied to investigate future GHG emissions. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O emissions increase from 9.0 by today to 9.8-11.1 (RCP 2.6) and 14.2-17.0 TgN2O-N/yr by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Without anthropogenic Nr inputs, the amplification is reduced by 24-32%. Soil CH4 emissions increase from 221 at present to 228-245 in RCP 2.6 and to 303-343 TgCH4/yr in RCP 8.5, and the land becomes a net source of C by 2100 AD. Feedbacks from land imply an additional warming of 1.3-1.5°C by 2300 in RCP 8.5, 0.4-0.5°C of which are due to N2O and CH4. The combined effect of multiple GHGs and albedo represents an increasingly positive total feedback to anthropogenic climate change with positive individual feedbacks from CH4, N2O, and albedo outweighing the diminishing negative feedback from CO2

  10. Integrating Future Information through Scenarios. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zentner, Rene D.

    The way that higher education planners can take into account changes in the post-industrial society is discussed. The scenario method is proposed as a method of integrating futures information. The planner can be provided with several probable futures, each of which can be incorporated in a scenario. An effective scenario provides the planner…

  11. DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool |

    Science.gov Websites

    State, Local, and Tribal Governments | NREL Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool Wednesday, August 13, 2014 As part ) presented a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a fruitful solar garden

  12. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  13. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration

  14. New trends in transportation and land use scenario planning : five case studies of regional and local scenario planning efforts

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-04-01

    This report summarizes important findings from a literature review on scenario planning processes and a scan of stakeholders. It also presents case studies on innovative, next generation scenario planning efforts. The project team defined next ...

  15. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    PubMed

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  16. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  17. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  18. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  19. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  20. The Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity.

    PubMed

    Niedermaier, Max; Reuter, Martin

    2006-01-01

    The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity is reviewed, according to which a renormalizable quantum theory of the gravitational field is feasible which reconciles asymptotically safe couplings with unitarity. The evidence from symmetry truncations and from the truncated flow of the effective average action is presented in detail. A dimensional reduction phenomenon for the residual interactions in the extreme ultraviolet links both results. For practical reasons the background effective action is used as the central object in the quantum theory. In terms of it criteria for a continuum limit are formulated and the notion of a background geometry self-consistently determined by the quantum dynamics is presented. Self-contained appendices provide prerequisites on the background effective action, the effective average action, and their respective renormalization flows.

  1. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A framework to analyze emissions implications of ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated

  3. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  4. Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

    2013-07-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

  5. Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

    PubMed

    Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

    2016-12-15

    Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

    Treesearch

    Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

    2017-01-01

    Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

  7. [Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].

    PubMed

    Stavem, K

    2000-01-10

    Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.

  8. Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

    2013-07-01

    The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall

  9. The impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

    2012-08-01

    The prospective future adoption of hydrogen to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question whether the adoption would have adverse effects on stratospheric ozone. The possibility of these undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART chemical transport model. Since future growth is highly uncertain we evaluate the impact for two world evolution scenarios, one based on a high emitting scenario (IPCC A1FI) and the other on a low emitting scenario (IPCC B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario the world evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the same world evolution scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two bounding scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is

  10. Loss of Load Probability Calculation for West Java Power System with Nuclear Power Plant Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azizah, I. D.; Abdullah, A. G.; Purnama, W.; Nandiyanto, A. B. D.; Shafii, M. A.

    2017-03-01

    Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) index showing the quality and performance of an electrical system. LOLP value is affected by load growth, the load duration curve, forced outage rate of the plant, number and capacity of generating units. This reliability index calculation begins with load forecasting to 2018 using multiple regression method. Scenario 1 with compositions of conventional plants produce the largest LOLP in 2017 amounted to 71.609 days / year. While the best reliability index generated in scenario 2 with the NPP amounted to 6.941 days / year in 2015. Improved reliability of systems using nuclear power more efficiently when compared to conventional plants because it also has advantages such as emission-free, inexpensive fuel costs, as well as high level of plant availability.

  11. GRB 090423 IN the Fireshell Scenario: a Canonical GRB at Redshift 8.2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izzo, Luca; Bernardini, Maria Grazia; Bianco, Carlo Luciano; Caito, Letizia; Patricelli, Barbara; Ruffini, Remo

    GRB 090423 is the farthest GRB up to date, with a redshift of about 8.1. We present within the Fireshell scenario a complete analysis of this GRB in the γ-ray band and a detailed analysis also in the X-rays, where we note the existence of a second component. We obtain that the FireShell model gives a good indication for the energetic emitted in the burst, Etot = 1:2x1053 ergs. Moreover we note that GRB 090423 is a long GRB with a relatively high bulk Lorentz Gamma factor at the transparency of the Fireshell. Finally we present a study of this extra component in the context of the synchrotron emission scenario, delineated in.8

  12. Fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, including soil carbon effects, of producing agriculture and forestry feedstocks

    Treesearch

    Christina E. Canter; Zhangcai Qin; Hao Cai; Jennifer B. Dunn; Michael Wang; D. Andrew Scott

    2017-01-01

    The GHG emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with producing potential biomass sup­ply in the select BT16 scenarios include emissions and energy consumption from biomass production, harvest/collection, transport, and pre-processing activities to the reactor throat. Emissions associated with energy, fertilizers, and...

  13. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final

  14. Importance of impacts scenarios for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zullo, J.; Macedo, C.; Pinto, H. S.; Assad, E. D.; Koga Vicente, A.

    2012-12-01

    The great possibility that the climate is already changing, and the most drastic way possible, increases the challenge of agricultural engineering, especially in environmentally vulnerable areas and in regions where agriculture has a high economic and social importance. Knowledge of potential impacts that may be caused by changes in water and thermal regimes in coming decades is increasingly strategic, as they allow the development of techniques to adapt agriculture to climate change and therefore minimizes the risk of undesirable impacts, for example, in food and nutritional security. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to describe a way to generate impacts scenarios caused by anomalies of precipitation and temperature in the definition of climate risk zoning of an agricultural crop very important in the tropics, such as the sugar cane, especially in central-southern Brazil, which is one of its main world producers. A key point here is the choice of the climate model to be used, considering that 23 different models were used in the fourth IPCC report published in 2007. The number and range of available models requires the definition of criteria for choosing the most suitable for the preparation of the impacts scenarios. One way proposed and used in this work is based on the definition of two groups of models according to 27 technical attributes of them. The clustering of 23 models in two groups, with a model representing each group (UKMO_HadCM3 and MIROC3.2_medres), assists the generation and comparison of impacts scenarios, making them more representative and useful. Another important aspect in the generation of impacts scenarios is the estimate of the relative importance of the anomalies of precipitation and temperature, which are the most commonly used. To assess the relative importance of the anomalies are generated scenarios considering an anomaly at a time and both together. The impacts scenarios for a high emission of greenhouse gases (A2), from 2010

  15. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  16. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial polar regions is reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  17. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  18. Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Fang; Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.; Streets, David G.

    2014-04-01

    Estimates of future emissions are necessary for understanding the future health of the atmosphere, designing national and international strategies for air quality control, and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so, thus it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. This paper is the second in a series that seeks to establish a more mechanistic understanding of future air pollutant emissions based on changes in technology. The first paper in this series (Yan et al., 2011) described a model that projects emissions based on dynamic changes of vehicle fleet, Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard-Trend, or SPEW-Trend. In this paper, we explore the underlying uncertainties of global and regional exhaust PM emission projections from on-road vehicles in the coming decades using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. This work examines the emission sensitivities due to uncertainties in retirement rate, timing of emission standards, transition rate of high-emitting vehicles called “superemitters”, and emission factor degradation rate. It is concluded that global emissions are most sensitive to parameters in the retirement rate function. Monte Carlo simulations show that emission uncertainty caused by lack of knowledge about technology composition is comparable to the uncertainty demonstrated by alternative economic scenarios, especially during the period 2010-2030.

  19. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  20. Impact of land use change on wind erosion and dust emission: scenarios from the central US

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    There will be significant changes in land cover and land use throughout the central United States in the coming years, particularly as a result of climate change, changes in US rangeland/farm policy, and increasing exploitation of land-intensive sustainable energy sources. The purpose of this study ...

  1. Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem

  2. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  3. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-01-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  4. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-05-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  5. Microalgae biorefineries: The Brazilian scenario in perspective.

    PubMed

    Brasil, B S A F; Silva, F C P; Siqueira, F G

    2017-10-25

    Biorefineries have the potential to meet a significant part of the growing demand for energy, fuels, chemicals and materials worldwide. Indeed, the bio-based industry is expected to play a major role in energy security and climate change mitigation during the 21th century. Despite this, there are challenges related to resource consumption, processing optimization and waste minimization that still need to be overcome. In this context, microalgae appear as a promising non-edible feedstock with advantages over traditional land crops, such as high productivity, continuous harvesting throughout the year and minimal problems regarding land use. Importantly, both cultivation and microalgae processing can take place at the same site, which increases the possibilities for process integration and a reduction in logistic costs at biorefinery facilities. This review describes the actual scenario for microalgae biorefineries integration to the biofuels and petrochemical industries in Brazil, while highlighting the major challenges and recent advances in microalgae large-scale production. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Nonlocal correlations in a macroscopic measurement scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkri, Samir; Banik, Manik; Ghosh, Sibasish

    2017-02-01

    Nonlocality is one of the main characteristic features of quantum systems involving more than one spatially separated subsystem. It is manifested theoretically as well as experimentally through violation of some local realistic inequality. On the other hand, classical behavior of all physical phenomena in the macroscopic limit gives a general intuition that any physical theory for describing microscopic phenomena should resemble classical physics in the macroscopic regime, the so-called macrorealism. In the 2-2-2 scenario (two parties, with each performing two measurements and each measurement having two outcomes), contemplating all the no-signaling correlations, we characterize which of them would exhibit classical (local realistic) behavior in the macroscopic limit. Interestingly, we find correlations which at the single-copy level violate the Bell-Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality by an amount less than the optimal quantum violation (i.e., Cirel'son bound 2 √{2 } ), but in the macroscopic limit gives rise to a value which is higher than 2 √{2 } . Such correlations are therefore not considered physical. Our study thus provides a sufficient criterion to identify some of unphysical correlations.

  7. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  8. Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

    Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

  9. Augmented standard model and the simplest scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Tai Tsun; Wu, Sau Lan

    2015-11-01

    The experimental discovery of the Higgs particle in 2012 by the ATLAS Collaboration and the CMS Collaboration at CERN ushers in a new era of particle physics. On the basis of these data, scalar quarks and scalar leptons are added to each generation of quarks and leptons. The resulting augmented standard model has fermion-boson symmetry for each of three generations, but only one Higgs doublet giving masses to all the elementary particles. A specific special case, the simplest scenario, is studied in detail. In this case, there are twenty six quadratic divergences, and all these divergences are cancelled provided that one single relation between the masses is satisfied. This mass relation contains a great deal of information, and in particular determines the masses of all the right-handed scalar quarks and scalar leptons, while gives relations for the masses of the left-handed ones. An alternative procedure is also given with a different starting point and less reliance on the experimental data. The result is of course the same.

  10. Estimated HCFC-22 emissions for 1990-2050 in China and the increasing contribution to global emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhifang; Bie, Pengju; Wang, Ziyuan; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Jiang, Hanyu; Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

    2016-05-01

    Chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22) is a widely used refrigerant and foaming agent that is not only an ozone-depleting substance (ozone depletion potential (ODP), 0.04) but also a greenhouse gas (global warming potential (GWP), 1780). A comprehensive historical emission inventory for 1990-2014 was produced using a bottom-up method, and a projection through to 2050 was made for China. The results demonstrated that historical emissions increased sharply from 0.2 Gg/yr in 1990 to 127.2 Gg/yr in 2014. Room air-conditioners (RACs), industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR), and extruded polystyrene (XPS) were three primary emission sources, and accounted for an average of 95.4% of the total emissions over the period studied. The percentage of global HCFC-22 emissions originating from China significantly increased from 0.1% in 1990 to 31.6% in 2012, with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. Under the Montreal Protocol phasing-out (MPPO) scenario, future emissions were expected to reach a peak of 133.5 Gg/yr in 2016 and then continuously decline to 10.2 Gg/yr in 2050. The accumulative reduction for 2015-2050 would be 5533.8 Gg (equivalent to 221.4 CFC-11-eq Gg and 9850.1 CO2-eq Tg), which is approximately equivalent to the total CO2 emission for China in 2012 (9900 Tg) (Olivier et al., 2013), compared with the no Montreal Protocol scenario (NMP). Under the MPPO scenario, two cases were analyzed to explore the future emission ranges in China. A comparison between the two cases implied that the choice of emission reduction policy will have a considerable impact on HCFC-22 emissions.

  11. GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

    2016-04-01

    India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

  12. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    SciTech Connect

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for releasemore » in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

  13. Uncertainty in Bioenergy Scenarios for California: Lessons Learned in Communicating with Different Stakeholder Groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Youngs, H.

    2013-12-01

    Projecting future bioenergy use involves incorporating several critical inter-related parameters with high uncertainty. Among these are: technology adoption, infrastructure and capacity building, investment, political will, and public acceptance. How, when, where, and to what extent the various bioenergy options are implemented has profound effects on the environmental impacts incurred. California serves as an interesting case study for bioenergy implementation because it has very strong competing forces that can influence these critical factors. The state has aggressive greenhouse gas reduction goals, which will require some biofuels, and has invested accordingly on new technology. At the same time, political will and public acceptance of bioenergy has wavered, seriously stalling bioenergy expansion efforts. We have constructed scenarios for bioenergy implementation in California to 2050, in conjunction with efforts to reach AB32 GHG reduction goals of 80% below 1990 emissions. The state has the potential to produce 3 to 10 TJ of biofuels and electricity; however, this potential will be severely limited in some scenarios. This work examines sources of uncertainty in bioenergy implementation, how uncertainty is or is not incorporated into future bioenergy scenarios, and what this means for assessing environmental impacts. How uncertainty is communicated and perceived also affects future scenarios. Often, there is a disconnect between scenarios for widespread implementation and the actual development of individual projects, resulting in "artificial uncertainty" with very real impacts. Bringing stakeholders to the table is only the first step. Strategies to tailor and stage discussions of uncertainty to stakeholder groups is equally important. Lessons learned in the process of communicating the Calfornia's Energy Future biofuels assessment will be discussed.

  14. New land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazonia: how to reach a sustainable future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguiar, A. P. D.; Vieira, I.; Toledo, P.; Araujo, R.; Coelho, A.; Pinho, P.; Assis, T.; Dalla-Nora, E. L.; Kawakami Savaget, E.; Batistella, M.

    2014-12-01

    Following an intense deforestation process initiated in the 1960s, clear-cut deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring and control systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Although regional social indicators have also slightly improved, society remains unequal and violent, both in urban and rural areas. Furthermore, the combined results of the fall of deforestation and the increased economic importance of the agribusiness sector have led to the political weakening of the so-called socio-environmental model. Thus, the current situation indicates a future of low (clear-cut) carbon emissions and low social conditions. On the other hand, other threats remain, including forest degradation derived from illegal logging and forest fires. There is also considerable uncertainty about the fate of the remaining forest areas as multiple forces can contribute to the return of high deforestation, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We present the results of a participatory scenario process, in which we discussed the future of the region until 2050 combining normative and exploratory approaches. We include an ideal "Sustainability" scenario (Scenario A) in which we envision major socioeconomic, institutional and environmental achievements. Scenario B stays in the "Middle of the road", in which the society maintains some of the positive environmental trends of the last decade, but not reversing the structural situation of social inequities. Scenario C is a pessimistic vision, named "Fragmentation" with high deforestation rates and low social development. The goal of the work was twofold: (a) to propose a method to enrich the discussion among different private and governmental stakeholders

  15. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  16. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

  17. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  18. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins.

    PubMed

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-03-07

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in 'easy' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty.

  19. Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary

    2018-04-01

    Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions1. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations2. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits3,4. However, 2 °C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 °C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a `standard' 2 °C scenario to 1.5 °C or could achieve 2 °C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 ± 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with 40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

  20. Projections of atmospheric nitrous oxide under scenarios of improved agriculture and industrial efficiencies, diet modification, and representative concentration pathways (RCPs)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, E. A.

    2011-12-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), now at about 325ppb, have been increasing since the Industrial Revolution, as livestock herds increased globally and as use of synthetic-N fertilizers increased after WWII. The agricultural sector produces 70-80% of anthropogenic N2O. Significantly reducing those emiss