Science.gov

Sample records for a1fi emissions scenario

  1. Extreme Climate Event Trends: The Data Mining and Evaluation of the A1FI Scenario for 2000???2100

    SciTech Connect

    Erickson III, David J; Ganguly, Auroop R; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Branstetter, Marcia L; Oglesby, Robert; Hoffman, Forrest M; Buja, Lawrence

    2008-01-01

    The authors discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as Earth climate evolves from 2000-2100. Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will interpret these new A1F1 results within the context of the previous climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover and atmospheric CO2. Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events. We will report on the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming on IMR and assess the trend of extreme rain and temperature events in a warming environment.

  2. Emission scenarios: Explaining differences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2017-01-01

    Carbon dioxide emission scenarios rely on a number of assumptions about how societies will develop in the future, creating uncertainty in projections. Now, research reveals the sensitivity of emission estimates to some of these assumptions.

  3. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  4. Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

  5. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-10-01

    This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  6. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  7. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-04-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon - a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  8. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  9. The impact of CO2 emission scenarios and nutrient enrichment on a common coral reef macroalga is modified by temporal effects.

    PubMed

    Bender, Dorothea; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2014-02-01

    Future coral reefs are expected to be subject to higher pCO2 and temperature due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Such global stressors are often paired with local stressors thereby potentially modifying the response of organisms. Benthic macroalgae are strong competitors to corals and are assumed to do well under future conditions. The present study aimed to assess the impact of past and future CO2 emission scenarios as well as nutrient enrichment on the growth, productivity, pigment, and tissue nutrient content of the common tropical brown alga Chnoospora implexa. Two experiments were conducted to assess the differential impacts of the manipulated conditions in winter and spring. Chnoospora implexa's growth rate averaged over winter and spring declined with increasing pCO2 and temperature. Furthermore, nutrient enrichment did not affect growth. Highest growth was observed under spring pre-industrial (PI) conditions, while slightly reduced growth was observed under winter A1FI ("business-as-usual") scenarios. Productivity was not a good proxy for growth, as net O2 flux increased under A1FI conditions. Nutrient enrichment, whilst not affecting growth, led to luxury nutrient uptake that was greater in winter than in spring. The findings suggest that in contrast with previous work, C. implexa is not likely to show enhanced growth under future conditions in isolation or in conjunction with nutrient enrichment. Instead, the results suggest that greatest growth rates for this species appear to be a feature of the PI past, with A1FI winter conditions leading to potential decreases in the abundance of this species from present day levels. © 2013 Phycological Society of America.

  10. Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jae-Bum; Cha, Jun-Seok; Hong, Sung-Chul; Choi, Jin-Young; Myoung, Ji-Su; Park, Rokjin J.; Woo, Jung-Hun; Ho, Changhoi; Han, Jin-Seok; Song, Chang-Keun

    2015-04-01

    We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global-regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996-2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4-0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016-2025 (the 2020s), 2046-2055 (the 2050s), and 2091-2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2-8 ppb, -3 to 8 ppb, and -7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.

  11. Analyses of Scenarios for Past and Possible Future Aircraft Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Patten, Kenneth O.; Rahmes, Tim

    1997-01-01

    This project contains several components to work with the NASA AEAP program in better definition of scenarios for aircraft emissions and in determining the sensitivity of the atmosphere to such emissions. Under this project, Don Wuebbles continues as chair of the Operations and Emissions Scenarios Committee for AEAP. We are also coordinating with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to ensure the highest quality possible in the emissions scenarios promoted by the Emissions Scenarios committee. We continue to help coordination of NASA AEAP with international activities. This includes work with ICAO towards international analysis of aircraft emissions inventories; performing analyses to compare and evaluate databases of aircraft emissions developed for NASA and by various international groups and from these analyses, develop guidelines for future emissions scenarios development. Special sensitivity analyses, using our two-dimensional chemical-transport model of the global troposphere and stratosphere, have been used to determine potential sensitivity of further enhancements that could be made to emissions scenarios development. The latter studies are to be used in prioritizing further emissions scenario development.

  12. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  13. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  14. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  15. Modeling framework for exploring emission impacts of alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loughlin, D. H.; Benjey, W. G.; Nolte, C. G.

    2010-11-01

    This article presents an approach for creating anthropogenic emission scenarios that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The approach focuses on energy production and use since these are principal sources of air pollution. We use the MARKAL model to characterize alternative realizations of the US energy system through 2050. Emission growth factors are calculated for major energy system categories using MARKAL, while growth factors from non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. The SMOKE model uses these factors to grow a base-year 2002 inventory to future years through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios: Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 applies a hypothetical policy that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy system. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role in investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality by the U.S. EPA and others.

  16. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  17. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-04-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

  18. Allowable Carbon Emission for RCP4.5 Concentration Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Kawamiya, M.

    2011-12-01

    Following the recommendation by CMIP5, some world climate centers are running experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) concentration scenario, and will present allowable carbon emission in the future. As allowable carbon emission is determined by combination of climate response and feedback of ecosystem, there should be significant inter-model uncertainty, and the result is not necessarily perfectly agreed with RCP emission scenario. In this study, parametric uncertainty in allowable carbon emission for RCP4.5 concentration scenario was investigated by perturbing important physical and biogeochemical parameters and aerosol forcing in a loosely coupled earth system model after confirming that the parameter perturbation results in comparable dispersion in climate response and ecosystem's feedback properties to those of C4MIP models. The result showed that allowable carbon emission for our ensemble mean is smaller than the RCP4.5 emission scenario, but the magnitude of the difference is dependent on the data for constraint. The most influential parameter to the allowable emission was climate sensitivity, followed by the Gent-McWilliams thickness parameter. The physical parameters have more contribution than biogeochemical ones, although some of the latter also have statistically significant contribution.

  19. Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page

    2011-09-08

    Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.

  20. Scenario dependency of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Katherine; Williams, Ric; Oschlies, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), in relating surface temperature changes to cumulative carbon emissions, provides a means of estimating carbon budgets from global warming benchmarks. Current Earth System Model results indicate that the TCRE is linear and scenario-independent. We explore the sensitivity of the TCRE to scenario and model parameter uncertainties using 8 configurations of the UVic Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, forced by 2 twenty-first-century emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We find that the TCRE is higher under RCP 4.5 than 8.5 by 0.3-0.8 K/1000 Pg C and shows opposing nonlinear tendencies in these scenarios: an increase of 0.15-0.5 K/1000 Pg C over RCP 4.5 and a decrease of 0-0.7 K/1000 Pg C over RCP 8.5. These differences are robust across model configurations with perturbed land and ocean parametrizations and are the result of the decreased efficiency of heat transport into the deep ocean under decelerating emissions.

  1. Dependency of precipitation scaling pattern on emission scenarios in RCPs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishizaki, Yasuhiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Nozawa, Toru; Ogura, Tomoo; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Nagashima, Tatsuya

    2013-04-01

    Pattern scaling is an efficient way to generate projections of regional climate change for a wide range of emission scenarios. This approach assumes that the spatial changes per 1 K increase in global mean surface air temperature (SAT) (scaling pattern) are common between emission scenarios. We validated the assumption of precipitation scaling pattern (SP) focusing on the scenario dependency (SD) of aerosols SP among representative concentration pathways. Overall, the SD of aerosols SPs induced an SD of surface shortwave radiation (SSR) SP. The SD of SSR SP over ocean tends to induce an SD of evaporation SP. The SD of evaporation SP led to an SD of precipitation SP over the site and the downstream regions. Contrariwise, when an SD of aerosols SPs occurred over land, the SD of SSR SP induced not only an SD of evaporation SP but also an SD of surface longwave radiation and sensible heat SPs. Consequently, the SD of evaporation SP was smaller over land than over ocean, and the SD of precipitation SP does not tend to be significant. In addition to the SD of aerosols scaling patterns, the SD of the southern annular mode and polar amplification caused some of the SD of precipitation SP. Projections of precipitation are important inputs to assessments of the impacts of climate change and related adaptation research. Scientists who study these topics need to pay attention to the scenario dependence of the scaling pattern of precipitation if the scenario dependences are important for their research. Because the differences of the global mean SAT changes between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 are smaller than those between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, the scenario dependences of the scaling patterns of anthropogenic aerosols and of Hadley circulation and SAM between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 were less than those between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. As a result, the scenario dependence of precipitation tended to be less between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 than between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 overall. Thus, when pattern scaling is

  2. Year 2015 Aircraft Emission Scenario for Scheduled Air Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Sutkus, Donald J.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional scenario of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons)for projected year 2015 scheduled air traffic. These emission inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxides, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  3. Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

    2016-12-01

    This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

  4. Effects of "Reduced" and "Business-As-Usual" CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Algal Territories of the Damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae).

    PubMed

    Bender, Dorothea; Champ, Connor Michael; Kline, David; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO2. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO2 levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 "reduced" and the A1FI "business-as-usual" CO2 emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under "reduced" CO2 emission, but not "business-as-usual" scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO2 emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under "reduced" emission scenarios.

  5. Effects of “Reduced” and “Business-As-Usual” CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Algal Territories of the Damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae)

    PubMed Central

    Bender, Dorothea; Champ, Connor Michael; Kline, David; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO2. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO2 levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 “reduced” and the A1FI “business-as-usual” CO2 emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under “reduced” CO2 emission, but not “business-as-usual” scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO2 emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under “reduced” emission scenarios. PMID:26121163

  6. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  7. Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

    2011-01-13

    The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

  8. Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

    2013-11-01

    This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

  9. Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holloway, T.

    2010-12-01

    Though much work has been done to develop accurate chemical emission inventories, few publicly available inventories are appropriate for realistic policy analysis. Emissions from the electricity and transportation sectors, in particular, respond in complex ways to policy, technology, and energy use change. Many widely used inventories, such as the EPA National Emissions Inventory, are well-suited for modeling current air quality, but do not have the specificity needed to address "what if?" questions. Changes in electricity demand, fuel prices, new power sources, and emission controls all influence the emissions from regional power production, requiring a plant-by-plant assessment to capture the spatially explicit impacts. Similarly, land use, freight distribution, or driving behavior will yield differentiated transportation emissions for urban areas, suburbs, and rural highways. We here present results from three recent research projects at the University of Wisconsin—Madison, where bottom-up emission inventories for electricity, freight transport, and urban vehicle use were constructed to support policy-relevant air quality research. These three studies include: 1) Using the MyPower electricity dispatch model to calculate emissions and air quality impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards and other carbon-management strategies; 2) Using advanced vehicle and commodity flow data from the Federal Highway Administration to evaluate the potential to shift commodities from truck to rail (assuming expanded infrastructure), and assess a range of alternative fuel suggestions; and 3) Working with urban planners to connect urban density with vehicle use to evaluate the air quality impacts of smart-growth in major Midwest cities. Drawing on the results of these three studies, and on challenges overcome in their execution, we discuss the current state of policy-relevant emission dataset generation, as well as techniques and attributes that need to be further refined in order

  10. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  11. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  12. Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

    2011-12-01

    In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

  13. Emissions from residential combustion considering end-uses and spatial constraints: Part II, emission reduction scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.

    2016-01-01

    Cooking, heating, and other activities in the residential sector are major sources of indoor and outdoor air pollution, especially when solid fuels are used to provide energy. Because of their deleterious effects on the atmosphere and human health, multinational strategies to reduce emissions have been proposed. This study examines the effects of some possible policies, considering realistic factors that constrain mitigation: end-uses, spatial constraints involving proximity to forest or electricity, existing technology, and assumptions about user behavior. Reduction scenarios are applied to a year-2010, spatially distributed baseline of emissions of particulate matter, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen oxides, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Scenarios explored are: (1) cleanest current stove, where we assume that existing technology in each land type is applied to burn existing fuels; (2) stove standards, where we assume that stoves are designed to meet performance standards; and (3) clean fuels, where users adopt the cleanest fuels plausible in each land type. We assume that people living in forest access areas continue to use wood regardless of available fuels, so the clean-fuels scenario leads to a reduction in emissions of 18-25%, depending on the pollutant, across the study region. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used; emission reductions range from 25 to 82%, depending on the pollutant. If stove performance standards can be met, particulate matter emissions are reduced by 62% for the loosest standards and 95% for the tightest standards, and carbon monoxide is reduced by 40% and 62% for the loosest and tightest standards. Reductions in specific regions and countries depend on the existing fuel mixture and the population division among land types, and are explored for Latin America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

  14. Screening and scenarios of traffic emissions at Trier, Germany.

    PubMed

    Junk, Jürgen; Helbig, Alfred; Krein, Andreas

    2004-01-01

    In the course of the European Council Directive on permissible air pollutant limit values, valid starting from 2005 there is an urgent call for action, particularly for fine dust (PM10). Current investigations (Junk & Helbig 2003, Reuter & Baumüller 2003) show that the limit values in certain places in congested areas are exceeded. Only if it is possible to locate these Hot Spots purposeful measures to reduce the ambient air pollution can be conducted. For an efficient identification of these Hot Spots numerical computer models or establishing special measurements networks are too expensive. Using the statistical model STREET 5.0 (KTT 2003) a cost-effective screening of the air pollution situation caused by the traffic can be done. STREET is based on the 3-dimensional micro-scale non-hydrostatic flow- and dispersion model MISCAM (Eichhorn 1989). The results of over 100.000 different calculations with MISCAM are stored in a Database and used to calculate the emissions with STREET. In collaboration with the city council of Trier more than 150 streets were investigated, mapped, and calculated. A special urban climate measuring network supplies the necessary meteorological input data about the wind field and precipitation events in the valley of the Moselle. Information about road width and road orientation as well as building density was derived from aerial photographs. Traffic censuses and mobile air pollutants measurements supplied the remaining input data. We calculated the mean annual air pollutant concentrations for NO2, CO, SO2, O3, benzene as well as PM10. A comparison of the model results with the values obtained from the stations of the central emission measuring network of Rhineland-Palatinate (ZIMEN, annual report 2002) shows very good agreements. The model was not only used to calculate the annual air pollutant but also for urban planning and management. The absolute level of the air pollutant is mainly dependent on the amount of traffic in the street

  15. Global emissions of mercury to the atmosphere in 2005 and their 2020 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Munthe, John; Wilson, Simon; Leaner, Joy

    2010-05-01

    About the three quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of mercury in the year 2005 estimated to be 1930 tonnes comes from sources where mercury is emitted as a by-product, and the rest is emitted during various applications of mercury. The largest emissions of Hg to the global atmosphere occur from combustion of fossil fuels, mainly coal in utility, industrial, and residential boilers (almost 47 %), followed by artisanal mining (almost 17 %), non-ferrous metal production, including gold production (13.5%) and cement production (about 9.5 %). Doing nothing for the improvement of the Hg emission reductions (so-called Status Quo - SQ scenario) will cause an increase of the emissions in 2020 by almost 100 % compared to the 2020 Extended Emission Control (EXEC) emission reduction scenario. Even larger increase is estimated when the 2020 SQ scenario of Hg emissions is compared with the 2020 Maximum Feasible Technical Reduction (MFTR) emission reduction scenario. The EXEC scenario assumes economic progress at a rate dependent on the future development of industrial technologies and emission control technologies, i.e. mercury-reducing technology currently generally employed throughout Europe and North America would be implemented elsewhere. It further assumes that emissions control measures currently implemented or committed to in Europe to reduce mercury emission to air or water would be implemented around the world. The MFTR scenario assumes implementation of all solutions/ measures leading to the maximum degree of reduction of mercury emissions and its loads discharged to any environment; cost is taken into account but only as a secondary consideration. Emissions of Hg in various industrial sectors, such as cement production and metal manufacturing in the year 2020 can be 2 to 3 times larger if nothing will be done to improve emission control in comparison with the EXEC scenario.

  16. Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

    1994-01-01

    Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

  17. Scenario analysis to vehicular emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China.

    PubMed

    Guo, Xiurui; Fu, Liwei; Ji, Muse; Lang, Jianlei; Chen, Dongsheng; Cheng, Shuiyuan

    2016-09-01

    Motor vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the important factors affecting the urban air quality in China. It is necessary and useful to policy makers to demonstrate the situation given the relevant pollutants reduction measures are taken. This paper predicted the reduction potentials of conventional pollutants (PM10, NOx, CO, HC) under different control strategies and policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 2011-2020. There are the baseline and 5 control scenarios designed, which presented the different current and future possible vehicular emissions control measures. Future population of different kinds of vehicles were predicted based on the Gompertz model, and vehicle kilometers travelled estimated as well. After that, the emissions reduction under the different scenarios during 2011-2020 could be estimated using emission factors and activity level data. The results showed that, the vehicle population in the BTH region would continue to grow up, especially in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing the different scenarios, emission standards updating scenario would achieve a substantial reduction and keep rising up for all the pollutants, and the scenario of eliminating high-emission vehicles can reduce emissions more effectively in short-term than in long-term, especially in Beijing. Due to the constraints of existing economical and technical level, the reduction effect of promoting new energy vehicles would not be significant, especially given the consideration of their lifetime impact. The reduction effect of population regulation scenario in Beijing cannot be ignorable and would keep going up for PM10, CO and HC, excluding NOx. Under the integrated scenario considering all the control measures it would achieve the maximum reduction potential of emissions, which means to reduce emissions of PM10, NOx, CO, HC, by 56%, 59%, 48%, 52%, respectively, compared to BAU scenario for the whole BTH region in 2020. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

  18. Emissions Scenarios, Costs, and Implementation Considerations of REDD Programs

    SciTech Connect

    Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Ken; Chan, Peter

    2011-04-11

    Greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector are estimated to be 8.4 GtCO2-eq./year or about 17percent of the global emissions. We estimate that the cost forreducing deforestation is low in Africa and several times higher in Latin America and Southeast Asia. These cost estimates are sensitive to the uncertainties of how muchunsustainable high-revenue logging occurs, little understood transaction and program implementation costs, and barriers to implementation including governance issues. Due to lack of capacity in the affected countries, achieving reduction or avoidance of carbon emissions will require extensive REDD-plus programs. Preliminary REDD-plus Readiness cost estimates and program descriptions for Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Guyana and Mexico show that roughly one-third of potential REDD-plus mitigation benefits might come from avoided deforestation and the rest from avoided forest degradation and other REDD-plus activities.

  19. Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

    2015-12-01

    Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

  20. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  1. Air pollutant emissions from vehicles in China under various energy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qingyu; Sun, Guojin; Fang, Simai; Tian, Weili; Li, Xiaoxiao; Wang, Huiyu

    2013-04-15

    Estimations of air pollutant emissions from vehicles in China under different energy and emission abatement policy scenarios are presented in this paper. Three scenarios are designed: (i) "business as usual" (BAU); (ii) "advanced fuel economy" (AFE); and (iii) "alternative energy replacement" (AER). The CO, VOCs, NOx, PM10, and CO2 emissions are predicted to reach 105.8, 5.9, 7.5, 1.1, and 3522.6 million tons, respectively, in the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE scenario, the CO, VOCs, NOx, PM10, and CO2 emissions in 2030 will be abated by 23.8%, 18.6%, 25.3%, 18.2%, and 24.5% respectively compared with the BAU scenario. In the AER scenario, the CO and VOCs in 2030 will be further reduced by 15.9% and 6.1% respectively, while NOx, PM10, and CO2 will be increased by 10.7%, 33.3%, and 2.0% compared with AFE. In conclusion, our models indicate that the emission abatement policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.

  2. Comparison of air emissions from various operating scenarios using an environmental database management system

    SciTech Connect

    Rosen, N.

    1997-12-31

    In their continuing effort to reduce air emissions, chemical and petroleum processing facilities must be able to predict, analyze, and compare emissions which result from a variety of operating scenarios. Will the use of a more expensive, yet cleaner fuel improve air emissions enough to warrant the extra cost? What are the threshold levels of production that will push a facility`s air emissions out of compliance with regulated limits? Which raw materials have the most prominent effect on the facility`s air emissions? Accurately determining the answers to such questions will help a facility determine which emission reduction alternatives are the most efficient and cost-effective. The use of an environmental data management system can make the analysis of different source operating scenarios a painless and efficient task. Within one database, a facility can store all possible operating scenario information, as well as all regulated emissions limits. The system will then process and calculate the air emissions quickly and accurately. Using statistical analysis tools, graphing capabilities, and reports embedded in the system, the facility can easily compare the pros and cons of each operating scenario.

  3. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-05-17

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

  4. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

    2016-05-17

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

  5. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-06-01

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols -- specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate -- depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. A properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions -- while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation -- could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

  6. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  7. Temperature and CO2 emission scenarios from high latitude peatlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larsen, J.; Hartland, A.; Mariethoz, G.

    2013-12-01

    Soil organic carbon (OC) represents the largest terrestrial carbon store (~twice the mass of atmospheric C), plays a key role in the carbon cycle, and is thought to be susceptible to anthropogenic climate change, yet the sensitivity of this carbon reservoir to potential temperature rises remains poorly quantified. Current estimates are mostly based upon incubation studies in specific locations and for relatively short time periods. Thus, the geographic heterogeneity in soil compositions, microbial plasticity and local climate variation are not always well captured. Thermodynamic theory of soil carbon assimilation suggests that microbial sensitivity to warming is only significant for low quality (i.e. less decomposable) OC, suggesting that changes in OC processing during the warming trend of the last ~40 years will have been facilitated mostly by very low quality carbon. We apply this kinetic theory of OC quality to estimate the likely response of high lattitude peatlands and mires in the Northern Hemipshere to warming scenarios of 0.5-1.5 °C by deriving a joint probability distribution of soil respiration and temperature values from a database of over 100 studies. Our data imply that although a feedback between CO2 efflux from northern peatlands and temperature exists, the potential increases in CO2 efflux from peatlands in high latitude climates due to global warming may have been overstated.

  8. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shaojian

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions. PMID:26397373

  9. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

  10. Mapping of the CO2 and anthropogenic heat emission under spatially explicit urban land use scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamichi, K.; Yamagata, Y.; Seya, H.

    2010-12-01

    The serious further efforts on CO2 and other green house gases emission reduction by global climate change mitigation remain as an urgent global issue to be solved. From the viewpoint of urban land use measures, the realization of low-carbon city is the key to change people’s behavior to reduce CO2 emission. In this respect, a lot of studies aimed at realizing low-carbon city are progressing on a number of fronts, including city planning and transportation planning. With respect to the low-carbon city, compact city is expected to reduce CO2 emission from transportation sector. Hence many studies have been conducted with scenario analysis considering modal share change, for instance, increase of public transportation use and reduction of trip length by car. On the other hand, it is important that CO2 emission from not only transportation sector but also residential sector can be reduced by a move from a detached house to a condominium, the change of family composition types and so on. In regard to residential sector, it has been founded that CO2 emission units differ among family composition types, for example, the single-person household emit more CO2 in general. From the viewpoint of an urban climate prediction, the possible range of future land use change should be recognized as the input parameters for the climate models. In addition to CO2 emission, the anthropogenic heat emission is also important as an input data of climate models in order to evaluate the social and economic impacts of urban land use change. The objective of this study is to demonstrate a compact city scenario and a dispersion scenario in Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest metropolitan area in the world, and to examine future climate change mitigation policies including land use for realization of low-carbon city. We have created two scenarios of population distribution by using an urban economic model. In these scenarios we have assumed extreme cases in order to show the

  11. Development and application of a fast method to evaluate emission control effect for different scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Si; Zhang, Meng; Xie, Bao Guo; Du, Hui; Du, Yu; Yin, Wen Jun

    2017-04-01

    The pollutant concentration is determined by emission, meteorological condition and chemical processes. In this study, the meteorological term and chemical term in pollutant concentration continuous equation are combined as the atmospheric comprehensive index (C-index), which describes the impact of atmospheric physical and chemical processes. It is found that the C-index is in approximately direct proportion to pollutant concentration. Thus the parameters in this proportional relationship can be calculated based on the sensitivity experiments with different emission inventories by numeric model (such as CMAQ or CAMx). With the calculated C-index, the pollutant concentration at any emission scenarios can be calculated quickly. The results show that the difference between the concentration calculated by this method and numeric model is less than 10%, which indicates the method is effective and cost free to evaluate different emission control scenarios in practice.

  12. Scenario analysis for nutrient emission reduction in the European inland waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouraoui, F.; Thieu, V.; Grizzetti, B.; Britz, W.; Bidoglio, G.

    2014-12-01

    Despite a large body of legislation, high nutrient loads are still emitted in European inland waters. In the present study we evaluate a set of alternative scenarios aiming at reducing nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from anthropogenic activities to all European Seas. In particular, we tested the full implementation of the European Urban Waste Water Directive, which controls emissions from point source. In addition, we associated the full implementation of this Directive with a ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents. Then we tested two human diet scenarios and their impacts on nutrient emissions. We also developed a scenario based on an optimal use of organic manure. The impacts of all our scenarios were evaluated using a statistical model of nitrogen and phosphorus fate (GREEN) linked to an agro-economic model (CAPRI). We show that the ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents coupled with the full implementation of the Urban Waste Water Directive is the most effective approach for reducing phosphorus emissions from human based activities. Concerning nitrogen, the highest reductions are obtained with the optimized use of organic manure.

  13. Effects of changing lawn care practices on N2O emissions: A scenario analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crane, J. W.; Hornberger, G. M.

    2013-12-01

    Lawn soil emissions of N2O are controlled by a variety of factors, among them the varied lawn care practices employed by homeowners or lawn care professionals. Frequency, intensity, and timing of fertilizer application and irrigation all place controls on soil N2O emissions produced as an intermediary of both nitrification and denitrification. We use a process-based biogeochemical model of C and N dynamics to determine how modifying these lawn care practices affect N2O emissions from lawn soils in Nashville, TN. Closed chamber sampling of N2O emissions is used to calibrate the model and provide a base case allowing additional scenarios to be run. We show that seasonal timing of fertilizer application strongly drives the magnitude of N2O emissions, with early summer application effectively doubling these emissions with no changes to other lawn care practices. Decreasing N fertilizer application intensity causes a fairly direct decrease in N2O emissions, while the frequency of fertilizer applications does not have a so clearly direct impact. Irrigation practices also place controls on N2O emissions, as frequent, intense irrigation increases soil moisture, creates anoxic conditions in the soil and results in elevated N2O emissions. These results suggest that understanding how lawn care affects N2O emissions from lawn soils could provide simple guidelines for lawn care that could substantively reduce lawn N2O emissions.

  14. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  15. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  16. ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

  17. ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

  18. Propagation of uncertainty in carbon emission scenarios through the global carbon cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, A.A.; Goldstein, R.A. )

    1994-09-01

    The authors used the GLOCO model, which is a carbon cycling model that considers seven terrestrial biomes, two oceans and one atmosphere, to evaluate the rise in atmospheric CO[sub 2] concentration, (pCO[sub 2]) and the partitioning of carbon to the global compartments (ocean, atmosphere and terrestrial) as a function of time for a number of possible anthropogenic carbon emission scenarios, based on different energy policies as developed by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-12). The authors then evaluated the possible uncertainty in carbon emission scenarios and the propagation of this uncertainty in carbon emission scenarios and the propagation of this uncertainty throughout the model to obtain an envelope for the rise in pCO[sub 2]. Large fluctuations in the input signal are smoothed by the carbon cycle, resulting in more than a four-fold reduction in uncertainty in the output signal (pCO[sub 2]). In addition, they looked at the effect that other model variables have on the pCO[sub 2] envelope, specifically the ratio of carbon to nitrogen in the emissions. The carbon to nitrogen ratio (C:N) will vary throughout the next century depending on the mix on energy sources chosen. More nitrogen in the emissions can produce a cofertilization effect in the terrestrial biomes, which would lead to sequestration of additional carbon. The uncertainty in C:N will enlarge the pCO[sub 2] uncertainty envelope by up to 20 ppm.

  19. A high-resolution emission inventory for eastern China in 2000 and three scenarios for 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xiaoping; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead G.; Larson, Eric D.; Woo, Jung-Hun; Streets, David G.; Guenther, Alex

    We develop a source-specific high-resolution emission inventory for the Shandong region of eastern China for 2000 and 2020. Our emission estimates for year 2000 are higher than other studies for most pollutants, due to our inclusion of rural coal consumption, which is significant but often underestimated. Still, our inventory evaluation suggests that we likely underestimate actual emissions. We project that emissions will increase greatly from 2000 to 2020 if no additional emission controls are implemented. As a result, PM 2.5 concentrations will increase; however O 3 concentrations will decrease in most areas due to increased NO x emissions and VOC-limited O 3 chemistry. Taking Zaozhuang Municipality in this region as a case study, we examine possible changes in emissions in 2020 given projected growth in energy consumption with no additional controls utilized (BAU), with adoption of best available end-of-pipe controls (BACT), and with advanced, low-emission coal gasification technologies (ACGT) which are capable of gasifying the high-sulfur coal that is abundant in China. Emissions of NH 3 are projected to be 20% higher, NMVOC 50% higher, and all other species 130-250% higher in 2020 BAU than in 2000. Both alternative 2020 emission scenarios would reduce emissions relative to BAU. Adoption of ACGT, which meets only 24% of energy service demand in Zaozhuang in 2020 would reduce emissions more than BACT with 100% penetration. In addition, coal gasification technologies create an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by capturing and sequestering CO 2 emissions below ground.

  20. Impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone in Europe for present day and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Road traffic is an important anthropogenic source of NOx, CO and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) which act as precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone. The formation of ozone is highly non-linear. This means that the contribution of the road traffic sector cannot directly be derived from the amount of emitted species, because they are also determined by local emissions of other anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, long range transport of precursors and ozone can play an important role in determining the local ozone budget. For a complete assessment of the impact of road traffic emissions it is therefore important to resolve both, local emissions and long range transport. This can be achieved by the use of the newly developed MECO(n) model system, which on-line couples the global chemistry-climate-model EMAC with the regional chemistry-climate-model COSMO-CLM/MESSy. Both models use the same chemical speciation. This allows a highly consistent model chain from the global to the local scale. To quantify the contribution of the road traffic emissions to tropospheric ozone we use an accounting system of the relevant reaction pathways of the different species from different sources (called tagging method). This tagging scheme is implemented consistently on all scales, allowing a direct comparison of the contributions. With this model configuration we investigate the impact of road traffic emissions to the tropospheric ozone budget in Europe. For the year 2008 we compare different emission scenarios and investigate the influence of both model and emission resolution. In addition, results of a mitigation scenario for the year 2030 are presented. They indicate that the contribution of the road traffic sector can be reduced by local reductions of emissions during summer. During winter the importance of long range transport increases. This can lead to increased contributions of the road traffic sector (e.g. by increased emissions in the US) even if local

  1. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  2. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dove, Sophie G.; Kline, David I.; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E.; Tyson, Gene W.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-01-01

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  3. Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Kejun; Hu, Xiulian

    2005-09-01

    This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO(2) emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO(2) emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO(2) emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO(2) emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO(2) emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO(2) emissions control and mitigation.

  4. Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Kejun; Hu, Xiulian

    2005-12-01

    This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO2 emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO2 emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO2 emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO2 emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO2 emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO2 emissions control and mitigation.

  5. Climate change impacts in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozkurt, Deniz; Sen, Omer Lutfi

    2013-02-01

    SummaryHydro-climatic effects of future climate change in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin are investigated using dynamically downscaled outputs of different GCM (ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3) - emissions scenario (A1FI, A2 and B1) simulations. The suite of simulations (total five) enables an analysis taking into account the A2 emission scenario simulations of three different GCMs and another analysis based on the three different emissions scenario (A1FI, A2 and B1) simulations of one GCM (CCSM3). All scenario simulations indicate winter surface temperature increases in the entire basin, however, the increase is larger in the highlands. The greatest increase in the annual temperature by the end of century belongs to the CCSM3 A1FI simulation with an increment of 6.1 °C in the highlands. There is a broad agreement amongst the simulations in terms of the winter precipitation decrease in the highlands and northern parts and increase in the southern parts of the basin. A remarkable impact of warming could be seen on the snow water equivalent in the highlands where each simulation points out statistically significant decreases ranging from 55% (lower emissions) to 87% (higher emissions). Statistically significant declines (25-55%) are found for the annual surface runoff of the main headwaters area. Moreover, significant temporal shifts to earlier days (between 18 and 39 days depending on the scenario) are projected to occur in the surface runoff timing in the headwaters region. Projected annual surface runoff changes in all simulations suggest that the territories of Turkey and Syria within the basin are most vulnerable to climate change as they will experience significant decreases in the annual surface runoff. Eventually, however, the downstream countries, especially Iraq, may suffer more as they rely primarily on the water released by the upstream countries. The substantial changes in the hydro-climate of the basin, therefore, are likely to increase the challenges associated

  6. OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A; Billé, R; Cheung, W W L; Howes, E L; Joos, F; Allemand, D; Bopp, L; Cooley, S R; Eakin, C M; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Kelly, R P; Pörtner, H-O; Rogers, A D; Baxter, J M; Laffoley, D; Osborn, D; Rankovic, A; Rochette, J; Sumaila, U R; Treyer, S; Turley, C

    2015-07-03

    The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

  7. Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon.

    PubMed

    Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Assis, Talita Oliveira; Dalla-Nora, Eloi L; Toledo, Peter Mann; Santos-Junior, Roberto Araújo Oliveira; Batistella, Mateus; Coelho, Andrea Santos; Savaget, Elza Kawakami; Aragão, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira Cruz; Nobre, Carlos Afonso; Ometto, Jean Pierre H

    2016-05-01

    Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km(2) yr(-1) in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km(2) yr(-1)) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary

  8. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  9. Integrated Modeling & Development of Emission Scenarios for Methane and Key Indirect Greenhouse Gases

    SciTech Connect

    Jain, Atul K.

    2005-09-30

    This report outlines main accomplishments on the development of Emission inventories and Scenarios for Key Indirect Greenhouse Gases (CO, VOCs, NOx) and methane supported by Office of Science (BER), US Department of Energy. This research produced 3 journal articles, 1 book chapter, and 4 research articles/abstracts in conference proceedings. In addition, this grant supported two PhD students and one undergraduate student at UIUC.

  10. Global scenarios of air pollutant emissions from road transport through to 2050.

    PubMed

    Takeshita, Takayuki

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO(2) mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO(2), NO(x), and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO(2), NO(x), and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO(2), NO(x), and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO(2) mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them.

  11. Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

    PubMed Central

    Takeshita, Takayuki

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them. PMID:21845172

  12. Interpreting global energy and emission scenarios: Methods for understanding and communicating policy insights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hummel, Leslie

    Energy scenarios for the 21st century powerfully inform perceptions and expectations in the minds of energy investors, consumers, and policy-makers. Scenarios that stabilize global warming call for large-scale energy technology transitions, fueling debates about the relative roles for a range of technologies including nuclear power, carbon sequestration, biofuels, solar power, and efficient end-use devices. In the last decade, hundreds of scenarios have been published by more than a dozen research teams using different models, baselines and mitigation targets. Despite the efforts to summarize findings in a few major assessments, a gap in understanding remains at a critical science-policy juncture between scenario analysts and the audiences their work is designed to serve. Addressing the issue requires an interdisciplinary approach that incorporates knowledge and methods from the fields of energy engineering, economics, climate science, and policy analysis. This research applies two analytical techniques to investigate the effects of an imposed climate policy on the underlying energy system. The first disentangles the effect of a policy intervention on key demographic and technology drivers of fossil fuel use, and the second decomposes reductions in emissions by specific energy technology types. Because the techniques may be applied to any energy scenario with technology detail, this study demonstrates their application to ten sample stabilization scenarios from three leading models. Revealing the importance of data and assumptions overlooked or not well disclosed in the past, the results highlight an implausibly high pressure on energy supply innovations while the potential for energy efficiency improvements is systematically underestimated. The findings are significant to both scenario analysts and the decision-makers in public policy and private investment who are influenced by their work.

  13. Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: an assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Bouwman, Lex; Smith, Steven J.; Dentener, Frank

    2011-09-17

    Most long-term scenarios of global N emissions are produced by Integrated Assessment Models in the context of climate change assessment. The scenarios indicate that N emissions are likely to increase in the next decades, followed by a stabilization or decline. Critical factors for future N emissions are the development of the underlying drivers (especially fertilizer use, animal husbandry, transport and power generation), air pollution control policy and climate policy. The new scenarios made for climate change assessment, the Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs, are not representative of the range of possible N-emission projections. A more focused development of scenarios for air pollution may improve the relevance and quality of the scenarios.

  14. Power plant emissions: particulate matter-related health damages and the benefits of alternative emission reduction scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Schneider, C.

    2004-06-15

    This report estimates the avoidable health effects of each of a series of alternative regulatory scenarios for power plants, focusing on the adverse human health effects due to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) This report uses the same analytical methods that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency used in 2003 to prepare an analysis of the potential health effects of the proposed Clear Skies Act (EPA 2003). This report conducts an analysis of the impacts in 2010 and 2020 of three policy alternatives to the proposed Clear Skies Act, The Jeffords/Lieberman/Collins 'The Clean Power Act', S. 366, and the EPA August 2001 Straw Proposal (one of several alternatives EPA analyzed prior to the announcement of the Clear Skies Initiative in 2002). The report also examines the health impacts associated with the total emissions from coal fired electricity generating units in 2010. Chapter 2 describes the emissions inventory estimates, and the changes in the emissions associated with each scenario analyzed. Chapter 3 describes the methods used to estimate changes in particulate matter concentrations. Chapter 4 describes general issues arising in estimating and valuing changes in adverse health effects associated with changes in particulate matter. Chapter 5 describes in some detail the methods used for estimating and valuing adverse health effects, and Chapter 6 presents the results of these analyses. Chapter 7 presents estimates of the impact of these alternative policy options on the PM non-attainment status. 117 refs., 21 figs., 32 tabs., 3 apps.

  15. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

  16. Global production, use, and emission volumes of short-chain chlorinated paraffins - A minimum scenario.

    PubMed

    Glüge, Juliane; Wang, Zhanyun; Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2016-12-15

    Short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) show high persistence, bioaccumulation potential, and toxicity (PBT properties). Consequently, restrictions on production and use have been enforced in several countries/regions. The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants recognized the PBT properties and long-range transport potential of SCCPs in 2015 and is now evaluating a possible global phase-out or restrictions. In this context, it is relevant to know which countries are producing/using SCCPs and in which amounts, and which applications contribute most to their environmental emissions. To provide a first comprehensive overview, we review and integrate all publicly available data on the global production and use of both chlorinated paraffins (CPs) as a whole and specifically SCCPs. Considerable amount of data on production/use of CPs and SCCPs are missing. Based on the available data and reported emission factors, we estimate the past and current worldwide SCCP emissions from individual applications. Using the available data as a minimum scenario, we conclude: (i) SCCP production and use is increasing, with the current worldwide production volume being 165,000t/year at least, whereas the global production of total CPs exceeds 1milliont/year. (ii) The worldwide release of SCCPs from their production and use to air, surface water, and soil between 1935 and 2012 has been in the range of 1690-41,400t, 1660-105,000t, and 9460-81,000t, respectively. (iii) The SCCP manufacture and use in PVC, the use in metal working applications and sealants/adhesives, and the use in plastics and rubber contribute most to the emissions to air, surface water, and soil. Thus, the decrease in the environmental emissions of SCCPs requires reduction of SCCP use in (almost) all applications. (iv) Emissions due to the disposal of waste SCCPs cannot be accurately estimated, because relevant information is missing. Instead, we conduct a scenario analysis to provide some insights into

  17. Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

    PubMed

    Morita, Haruka; Yang, Suijia; Unger, Nadine; Kinney, Patrick L

    2014-12-16

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

  18. Testing the Young Neutron Star Scenario with Persistent Radio Emission Associated with FRB 121102

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kashiyama, Kazumi; Murase, Kohta

    2017-04-01

    Recently a repeating fast radio burst (FRB) 121102 has been confirmed to be an extragalactic event and a persistent radio counterpart has been identified. While other possibilities are not ruled out, the emission properties are broadly consistent with Murase et al. that theoretically proposed quasi-steady radio emission as a counterpart of both FRBs and pulsar-driven supernovae. Here, we constrain the model parameters of such a young neutron star scenario for FRB 121102. If the associated supernova has a conventional ejecta mass of M ej ≳ a few M ⊙, a neutron star with an age of t age ∼ 10–100 years, an initial spin period of P i ≲ a few ms, and a dipole magnetic field of B dip ≲ a few × 1013 G can be compatible with the observations. However, in this case, the magnetically powered scenario may be favored as an FRB energy source because of the efficiency problem in the rotation-powered scenario. On the other hand, if the associated supernova is an ultra-stripped one or the neutron star is born by the accretion-induced collapse with M ej ∼ 0.1 M ⊙, a younger neutron star with t age ∼ 1–10 years can be the persistent radio source and might produce FRBs with the spin-down power. These possibilities can be distinguished by the decline rate of the quasi-steady radio counterpart.

  19. Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits. PMID:25412200

  20. Effects of elevated nutrients and CO2 emission scenarios on three coral reef macroalgae.

    PubMed

    Bender-Champ, Dorothea; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2017-05-01

    Coral reef macroalgae are expected to thrive in the future under conditions that are deleterious to the health of reef-building corals. Here we examined how macroalgae would be affected by exposure to future CO2 emission scenarios (pCO2 and temperature), enriched nutrients and combinations of both. The species tested, Laurencia intricata (Rhodophyta), Turbinaria ornata and Chnoospora implexa (both Phaeophyceae), have active carbon-concentrating mechanisms but responded differently to the treatments. L. intricata showed high mortality under nutrient enriched RCP4.5 ("reduced" CO2 emission) and RCP8.5 ("business-as-usual" CO2 emission) and grew best under pre-industrial (PI) conditions, where it could take up carbon using external carbonic anhydrase combined, potentially, with proton extrusion. T. ornata's growth rate showed a trend for reduction under RCP8.5 but was unaffected by nutrient enrichment. In C. implexa, highest growth was observed under PI conditions, but highest net photosynthesis occurred under RCP8.5, suggesting that under RCP8.5, carbon is stored and respired at greater rates while it is directed to growth under PI conditions. None of the species showed growth enhancement under future scenarios, nutrient enrichment or combinations of both. This leads to the conclusion that under such conditions these species are unlikely to pose an increasing threat to coral reefs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Non-Kyoto Radiative Forcing in Long-Run Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, Steven K.; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; Stefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-27

    Climate policies designed to achieve climate change objectives must consider radiative forcing from the Kyoto greenhouse gas, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Net positive forcing leads to global average temperature increases. Modeling of non-Kyoto forcing is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. Five of the nineteen models in the EMF-27 Study model both Kyoto and non-Kyoto forcing. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within these integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking significant positive forcing in reference non-climate policy projections. There are however large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing, with differences stemming from differences in relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions and fundamental differences in modeling structure and assumptions. Air pollution and non-Kyoto forcing decline in the climate policy scenarios. However, non-Kyoto forcing appears to be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty related to non-Kyoto forcing that must be considered.

  2. Large gain in air quality compared to an alternative anthropogenic emissions scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-08-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistry-transport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the year-to-year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  3. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  4. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  5. Military, Charter, Unreported Domestic Traffic and General Aviation 1976, 1984, 1992, and 2015 Emission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mortlock, Alan; VanAlstyne, Richard

    1998-01-01

    The report describes development of databases estimating aircraft engine exhaust emissions for the years 1976 and 1984 from global operations of Military, Charter, historic Soviet and Chinese, Unreported Domestic traffic, and General Aviation (GA). These databases were developed under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Subsonic Assessment (AST). McDonnell Douglas Corporation's (MDC), now part of the Boeing Company has previously estimated engine exhaust emissions' databases for the baseline year of 1992 and a 2015 forecast year scenario. Since their original creation, (Ward, 1994 and Metwally, 1995) revised technology algorithms have been developed. Additionally, GA databases have been created and all past NIDC emission inventories have been updated to reflect the new technology algorithms. Revised data (Baughcum, 1996 and Baughcum, 1997) for the scheduled inventories have been used in this report to provide a comparison of the total aviation emission forecasts from various components. Global results of two historic years (1976 and 1984), a baseline year (1992) and a forecast year (2015) are presented. Since engine emissions are directly related to fuel usage, an overview of individual aviation annual global fuel use for each inventory component is also given in this report.

  6. Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korhonen, Riitta; Savolainen, Ilkka; Sinisalo, Jukka

    1993-11-01

    Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO2 emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO2 removal from the atmosphere and of CO2 absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.

  7. Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Keller, David P; Feng, Ellias Y; Oschlies, Andreas

    2014-02-25

    The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited.

  8. Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited. PMID:24569320

  9. Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited.

  10. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  11. Global source-receptor relationships for mercury under present and year 2050 anthropogenic emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbitt, E. S.; Holmes, C.; Jacob, D. J.; Streets, D. G.; Selin, N. E.; Sorensen, A.; Sunderland, E. M.

    2009-12-01

    We use the GEOS-Chem global 3-D model for mercury, including dynamic coupling of the atmosphere with ocean and land reservoirs, to quantify continental and regional source-receptor relationships for mercury under present and future (2050) conditions. The model includes several recent developments such as oxidation of Hg(0) by Br atoms and improved representation of land-atmosphere exchange. Different SRES scenarios are considered for 2050 anthropogenic emissions, thus providing a range of future projections. We use a tagged tracer simulation to track atmospheric emissions of mercury from specific source regions including their cycling with the surface ocean and short-lived land reservoirs. We identify net source and receptor regions, distinguishing regions for which domestic emissions reductions would be most effective from others which receive deposition predominantly from the global atmospheric pool of mercury. The projected future increase in the contribution of Hg(II) to global mercury emissions results in a shift toward more regional source-receptor relationships.

  12. Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovenduski, Nicole S.; McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew C.

    2016-09-01

    We quantify and isolate the sources of projection uncertainty in annual-mean sea-air CO2 flux over the period 2006-2080 on global and regional scales using output from two sets of ensembles with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For annual-mean, globally-integrated sea-air CO2 flux, uncertainty grows with prediction lead time and is primarily attributed to uncertainty in emission scenario. At the regional scale of the California Current System, we observe relatively high uncertainty that is nearly constant for all prediction lead times, and is dominated by internal climate variability and model structure, respectively in the CESM and CMIP5 model suites. Analysis of CO2 flux projections over 17 biogeographical biomes reveals a spatially heterogenous pattern of projection uncertainty. On the biome scale, uncertainty is driven by a combination of internal climate variability and model structure, with emission scenario emerging as the dominant source for long projection lead times in both modeling suites.

  13. Changes in land cover and carbon emissions to 2050 from African tropical forests using policy scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laporte, N.; Galford, G. L.; Soares Filho, B. S.

    2011-12-01

    Africa has the second largest block of rainforest in the world, next to the Amazon basin, with the majority of the carbon being stored in the dense humid forests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Historically, political instability in the DRC kept development and deforestation low, with primary forest uses being extensive logging and small scale agriculture. In the last decade, political stability has opened the country to foreign investment in forested areas, largely for industrial-scale oil palm plantations and more recently to rice production. The DRC ranks worst on the IFPRI global hunger index, scoring "extremely serious" based on the proportion of undernourished population, prevalence of underweight in children under 5 and the mortality rates of children under 5. In fact, DRC saw its hunger score increase (worsen) from 1990 to 2010, with a 66% gain compared to the other 8 worsening countries increasing only 21% or less. This is a critical time for policy in the DRC, where business-as-usual (relatively low deforestation rates) is unlikely to continue given today's relative political stability and economic stabilization compared to the 1990s. The country must examine options for forest conservation in balance with foreign investment for use of forest resources, national development of rural livelihoods and domestic production of food. Here we present deforestation trajectories simulated through the year 2050 under a set of scenarios. The scenarios consider the relative carbon emissions from business-as-usual (no new policy), conservation (policy favoring protection and enforcement for forest areas), and a food security scenario (favoring clearing for industrial agriculture, extractive timber resources and development of new agricultural areas). Carbon emissions for each scenario are estimated with a coupled bookkeeping model. These scenarios are not predictive of the future, rather, they are meant to provide an understanding of the outcomes of

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector in Argentina in business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Santalla, Estela; Córdoba, Verónica; Blanco, Gabriel

    2013-08-01

    The objective of this work was the application of 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the waste sector in Argentina as a preliminary exercise for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development and to compare with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions projections to 2030 were evaluated under two scenarios--business as usual (BAU), and mitigation--and the calculations were done by using the ad hoc developed IPCC software. According to local activity data, in the business-as-usual scenario, methane emissions from solid waste disposal will increase by 73% by 2030 with respect to the emissions of year 2000. In the mitigation scenario, based on the recorded trend of methane captured in landfills, a decrease of 50% from the BAU scenario should be achieved by 2030. In the BAU scenario, GHG emissions from domestic wastewater will increase 63% from 2000 to 2030. Methane emissions from industrial wastewater, calculated from activity data of dairy, swine, slaughterhouse, citric, sugar, and wine sectors, will increase by 58% from 2000 to 2030 while methane emissions from domestic will increase 74% in the same period. Results show that GHG emissions calculated from 2006 IPCC Guidelines resulted in lower levels than those reported in previous national inventories for solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater categories, while levels were 18% higher for industrial wastewater. The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories is now considering by the UNFCCC for non-Annex I countries in order to enhance the compilation of inventories based on comparable good practice methods. This work constitutes the first GHG emissions estimation from the waste sector of Argentina applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the ad doc developed software. It will contribute to identifying the main differences between the models applied in the estimation of

  15. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    PubMed

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  16. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  17. Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study

    PubMed Central

    Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas RV; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

    2017-01-01

    Objective To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. Design For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1–5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Setting Working age population for England. Participants Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Primary outcomes measured Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Results Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO2e/year for the diet scenarios. Conclusions Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. PMID:28399514

  18. How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marty, Christoph; Schlögl, Sebastian; Bavay, Mathias; Lehning, Michael

    2017-02-01

    This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999-2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future time periods (2020-2049, 2045-2074, 2070-2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500-800 or 700-1000 m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and only 0-2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %).

  19. Global Source-Receptor Relationships for Mercury Deposition Under Present-Day and 2050 Emissions Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Corbitt, Elizabeth S.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Holmes, Christopher D.; Streets, David G.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

    2011-01-01

    Global policies regulating anthropogenic mercury require an understanding of the relationship between emitted and deposited mercury on intercontinental scales. Here we examine source-receptor relationships for present-day conditions and for four 2050 IPCC scenarios encompassing a range of economic development and environmental regulation projections. We use the GEOS-Chem global model to track mercury from its point of emission through rapid cycling in surface ocean and land reservoirs to its accumulation in longer-lived ocean and soil pools. Deposited mercury has a local component (emitted HgII, lifetime of 3.7 days against deposition) and a global component (emitted Hg0, lifetime of 6 months against deposition). Fast recycling of deposited mercury through photoreduction of HgII and re-emission of Hg0 from surface reservoirs (ice, land, surface ocean) increases the effective lifetime of anthropogenic mercury to 9 months against loss to legacy reservoirs (soil pools and the subsurface ocean). This lifetime is still sufficiently short that source-receptor relationships have a strong hemispheric signature. Asian emissions are the largest source of anthropogenic deposition to all ocean basins, though there is also regional source influence from upwind continents. Current anthropogenic emissions account for only about one-third of mercury deposition to the global ocean with the remainder from natural and legacy sources. However, controls on anthropogenic emissions would have the added benefit of reducing the legacy mercury re-emitted to the atmosphere. Better understanding is needed of the timescales for transfer of mercury from active pools to stable geochemical reservoirs. PMID:22050654

  20. Evaluating Future Land-use Change Scenarios: Trade-offs between Bio-energy Demand, Food Production, and Carbon Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2012-12-01

    In the construction of consistent future climate scenario, land use scenario has important role through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects on climate change. In terms of carbon emissions by the land-use change, relative importance may be high in the lower radiative forcing and lower carbon emission scenarios, which may use large amount of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In this study, we first evaluated the CO2 emissions by land-use change in the 21st century using each RCPs scenarios. We use an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model VISIT, with book-keeping consideration of the carbon emission from deforested biomass and the regrowing uptake from abandoned cropland and pasture employing the gridded transition land-use data from RCPs. Effect of CO2 fertilization, land-use transition itself, and climate change are evaluated in the analysis. We found that constructing consistent land-use change carbon emission scenario with the gridded land-use change data requires precise considerations of effects of CO2 fertilization and climate change particularly for the regrowing uptake. Also, our result showed more emission of CO2 by the land-use change than the assumption in the integrated assessment model for RCP2.6 scenario. Then, we estimated the land-use area required to sustain the required biofuel production to match the assumption of BECCS use in RCPs with a global process based crop model. In the evaluation, we also estimated the further changes in carbon emissions by the required land-use change due to differences in crop yield assumptions, which also take into account of climate change. The trade-offs between land-use for crop, biocrop, and natural vegetation low-carbon scenario are discussed using the integrated terrestrial modeling approach.

  1. Monte-Carlo simulations and image reconstruction for novel imaging scenarios in emission tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillam, John E.; Rafecas, Magdalena

    2016-02-01

    Emission imaging incorporates both the development of dedicated devices for data acquisition as well as algorithms for recovering images from that data. Emission tomography is an indirect approach to imaging. The effect of device modification on the final image can be understood through both the way in which data are gathered, using simulation, and the way in which the image is formed from that data, or image reconstruction. When developing novel devices, systems and imaging tasks, accurate simulation and image reconstruction allow performance to be estimated, and in some cases optimized, using computational methods before or during the process of physical construction. However, there are a vast range of approaches, algorithms and pre-existing computational tools that can be exploited and the choices made will affect the accuracy of the in silico results and quality of the reconstructed images. On the one hand, should important physical effects be neglected in either the simulation or reconstruction steps, specific enhancements provided by novel devices may not be represented in the results. On the other hand, over-modeling of device characteristics in either step leads to large computational overheads that can confound timely results. Here, a range of simulation methodologies and toolkits are discussed, as well as reconstruction algorithms that may be employed in emission imaging. The relative advantages and disadvantages of a range of options are highlighted using specific examples from current research scenarios.

  2. Changes in the spatial distribution of O3, NO and CO in different vehicular emission scenarios in Sao Paulo, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiquetto, J. B.; Silva, M. E. S.; Ynoue, R.; Cabral-Miranda, W.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric pollution in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) has been investigated using the WRF/Chem model version 3.2.1 in a 1X1 km emission grid. Based on a local emission inventory, a control simulation (CTRL) was performed for the period 28/01-02/02/2014, during a summer season characterized by intense solar radiation and temperature positive anomalies, which resulted in high pollutant concentration. Sensitivity tests were performed using different vehicular emission scenarios and CTRL. In scenario A), emissions were removed from a region which encompasses almost the entire urban area of the SPMA, only roads in the outskirts had regular emissions. Comparing scenario A) to CTRL, sharp decreases in CO, NO and NO2 were observed inside the SPMA. Ozone decreased slighlty during the day, probably due to the significant absence of precursor emissions which form ozone during the day in the presence of sunlight. On the other hand, ozone concentrations increased at night, influenced by the absence of ozone-consuming precursors inside the densely urbanized SPMA, in the absence of sunlight. In scenario B), we removed emissions from a smaller area, corresponding roughly to an expanded downtown area (where a few traffic restriction laws operate). The goal of this scenario was to observe possible impacts if more strict traffic restriction laws were implemented. In scenario C), emissions were decreased by 50% in the same area, in an attempt to characterize concentrations in an urban toll scenario. Results from scenarios B) and C) showed a decrease in NO, NO2 and CO, but less intense than in scenario A). On the other hand, a higher increase in ozone was detected both during the day and at night compared to the CTRL and scenario A). These results suggests that, along with lower concentrations of precursor gases and CO, higher ozone concentrations are likely to be expected in downtown Sao Paulo if more severe traffic restriction laws should be implemented. This is concerning

  3. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE PAGES

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; ...

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

  4. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R

  5. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  6. Mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources in Europe in 2000 and their scenarios until 2020.

    PubMed

    Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Pacyna, Jozef M; Fudala, Janina; Strzelecka-Jastrzab, Ewa; Hlawiczka, Stanislaw; Panasiuk, Damian

    2006-10-15

    The paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding European emissions of mercury and presents estimates of European emissions of mercury to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources for the year 2000. This information was then used as a basis for Hg emission scenario development until the year 2020. Combustion of coal in power plants and residential heat furnaces generates about half of the European emissions being 239 tonnes. The coal combustion is followed by the production of caustic soda with the use of the Hg cell process (17%). Major points of mercury emission generation in the mercury cell process include: by-product hydrogen stream, end box ventilation air, and cell room ventilation air. This technology is now being changed to other caustic soda production technologies and further reduction of Hg emissions is expected in this connection. The third category on the list of the largest Hg emitters in Europe is cement production (about 13%). The largest emissions were estimated for Russia (the European part of the country), contributing with about 27% to the European emissions, followed by Poland, Germany, Spain, Ukraine, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. Most of these countries use coal as a major source of energy in order to meet the electricity and heat demands. In general, countries in the Central and Eastern Europe generated the main part of the European emissions in 2000. Emission reductions between 20% and 80% of the 2000 emission amounts can be obtained by the year 2020, as estimated by various scenarios.

  7. Global Air Quality Predictions of Particulate Matter in the Middle East and Sensitivity to Future Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Couzo, E. A.; Holmes, C. D.; Paltsev, S.; Alawad, A.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We examine the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers of future PM in the Middle East region using two future emissions scenarios to drive the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model. The Arabian Peninsula is a major source of windblown dust as well as anthropogenic aerosols. Future emissions - driven jointly and individually by climate change and anthropogenic emissions from this rapidly growing region - will play an important role in both climate forcing and human health impacts from particulate matter. We use two scenarios to compare their climate and air quality implications. First, we use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for four radiative forcing cases. Second, we develop a consistent future greenhouse gas and conventional pollutant emission inventory using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that calculates how economic growth and anthropogenic emissions change as a result of policies and other stressors. With EPPA, we examine three emissions cases, a business-as-usual case and two stabilization cases leading to anthropogenic radiative forcings of 3.7 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2. We use these scenarios to drive GEOS-Chem for present and future climate, assessing changes in chemical composition of aerosol and drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, out to 2050. We find that projected anthropogenic emissions are strong determinants of future particulate matter air quality in the Middle East region.

  8. The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

    2016-12-01

    Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

  9. Future trends in worldwide river nitrogen transport and related nitrous oxide emissions: a scenario analysis.

    PubMed

    Kroeze, C; Seitzinger, S P; Domingues, R

    2001-11-02

    We analyze possible future trends in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by world rivers and associated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O). Our scenarios either assume that current trends continue or that nitrogen (N) inputs to aquatic systems are reduced as a result of changes in agriculture practices and fuel combustion technologies. The results indicate that moderate changes in the human diet in North America and Europe, reducing worldwide fertilizer use by only 16%, relative to Business-as-Usual (BAU) levels, may reduce DIN export rates to the North Atlantic and European Seas by about one third and associated N2O emissions by 36 to 77%. We furthermore calculate that relatively large reductions in NOy deposition rates in Europe (of about 80%) may reduce DIN export by rivers by a moderate 8% or less, relative to BAU levels. The potential effect of reduced NOy deposition on riverine DIN export is moderate, because most N in European rivers stems from agriculture, and not from fuel combustion. Nevertheless, the calculated 9% reduction (relative to BAU) in DIN inputs to the North Sea as a potential side effect of air pollution control may help achieve the international policy targets for reduced N inputs to the North Sea.

  10. Impacts of Emission Reduction Scenarios on Regional Climate and Local Air Quality for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Smith, J. A.; Wang, Z.; Fast, J. D.; Chapman, E. G.; Wu, Q.; Baeck, M.; Michel, A. P.; Yeung, J.; Gustafson, W. I.

    2009-05-01

    Beijing implemented a long term emission reduction program in 2001 when it won the bid to host the 2008 Summer Olympic Games. During the summer of 2008 Beijing increased its emission reduction effort by integrating short term strategies such as temporally shutting down factories, freezing constructions, and automobile control. Taking advantage of emission reduction measures, numerical simulation experiments are being carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry module (WRF-Chem) to examine aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in the Beijing metropolitan region during the period of the 2008 Olympic Games. Analyses of TRMM 3B42V6 and MODIS Terra L3C5 datasets show that August 2008 was a period of above average precipitation and below average aerosol loadings, relative to observations during the past 10 years. This study is based on numerical simulations with two emission scenarios, business as usual scenario and reduced emission scenario, to examine the impacts of emission reduction measures on regional climate and local air quality in the Beijing metropolitan region, as well as the role of cloud and precipitation processes in controlling the regional distribution of aerosols. Both of the high- resolution emission inventories were developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China, to represent the effects of emission reduction policies for the Olympic period. Intercomparisons with in-situ measurements are used to assess the capability for modeling aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions on a regional scale. Analyses center on assessing "microphysical" and "stability" hypotheses linking aerosols to cloud and precipitation processes and examining the relative roles of precipitation processes, regional transport processes and emission reduction scenarios in producing the favorable air quality conditions during the Olympic period.

  11. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

  12. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Kurokawa, J.; Takigawa, M.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Horowitz, L. W.; Ohara, T.

    2011-04-01

    The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS) for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for vehicle numbers, annual mileage and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were before any regulation was implemented (business-as-usual, BAU), and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles). The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new gasoline and diesel vehicles in China (except motorcycles) were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the BAU and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under BAU in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to BAU. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3) mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m-3 relative to BAU in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in neighboring countries are also reduced by more than 3 ppbv and 1

  13. Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Aerosol Emission Scenarios on Hydrology in the Mekong Basins and their Effects on Irrigation and Hydropower

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeo, L. K.; Wang, C.

    2016-12-01

    Water distribution is closely linked to food and energy security. Aerosol emissions affect cloud properties, as well as atmospheric stability, changing the distribution of precipitation. These changes in precipitation causes changes in water availability, affecting food production and energy generation. These impacts are especially important in Southeast Asia, which uses up to 90% of their water supply for irrigation. In addition, the Mekong river, the largest inland fishery in the world, has 30,000MW of hydropower potential in its lower reaches alone. Modelling the impacts of these anthropogenic emission scenarios will allow us to better understand their downstream effects on hydrology, and any potential feedbacks it may have on future aerosol emissions. In the first step, we run the WRF model using FNL reanlaysis data from 2014 and 2015 to generate the WRF-hydro model forcing inputs. We then run the WRF-hydro model and compare the output with current measurements of soil moisture, river flow, and precipitation. Secondly, we run the WRF-Chem model with various anthropogenic emission scenarios and put the results through the WRF-hydro model to determine the impact of these emission scenarios on soil moisture and river flow. The scenarios include enhanced anthropogenic emissions in Asia, anologous to widespread adoption of coal burning as an energy source in Asia. Anthropogenic emissions have the potential to affect energy policy in countries affected by these emissions. When hydropower generation is affected by changes in precipitation, the affected countries will have to switch to alternative sources of fuel to meet their energy needs. These sources typically result in changes in anthropogenic aerosol emisssions, especially if coal is used as an alternative source of energy.

  14. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    PubMed Central

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

  15. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    SciTech Connect

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-06-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75 percent; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70 percent. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90 percent; and snowpack declines 73-90 percent, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

  16. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.B.; Frumhoff, P.C.; Maurer, E.P.; Miller, N.L.; Moser, S.C.; Schneider, S.H.; Cahill, K.N.; Cleland, E.E.; Dale, L.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, R.M.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Lenihan, J.; Lunch, C.K.; Neilson, R.P.; Sheridan, S.C.; Verville, J.H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

  17. Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study.

    PubMed

    Tainio, Marko; Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas Rv; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

    2017-02-22

    To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1-5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Working age population for England. Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO2e/year for the diet scenarios. Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  18. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Treesearch

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  19. Developing a dynamic life cycle greenhouse gas emission inventory for wood construction for two different end-of-life scenarios

    Treesearch

    Richard D. Bergman; James Salazar; Scott Bowe

    2012-01-01

    Static life cycle assessment does not fully describe the carbon footprint of construction wood because of carbon changes in the forest and product pools over time. This study developed a dynamic greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory approach using US Forest Service and life-cycle data to estimate GHG emissions on construction wood for two different end-of-life scenarios....

  20. PULMONARY AND SYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF ZINC-CONTAINING EMISSION PARTICLES IN THREE RAT STRAINS: MULTIPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract
    Pulmonary and Systemic Effects of Zinc-Containing Emission Particles in Three Rat Strains: Multiple Exposure Scenarios. Kodavanti, U. P., Schladweiler, M. C. J., Ledbetter, A. D., Hauser, R.*, Christiani, D. C.*, McGee, J., Richards, J. R., and Costa, D. L. (2002)....

  1. PULMONARY AND SYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF ZINC-CONTAINING EMISSION PARTICLES IN THREE RAT STRAINS: MULTIPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract
    Pulmonary and Systemic Effects of Zinc-Containing Emission Particles in Three Rat Strains: Multiple Exposure Scenarios. Kodavanti, U. P., Schladweiler, M. C. J., Ledbetter, A. D., Hauser, R.*, Christiani, D. C.*, McGee, J., Richards, J. R., and Costa, D. L. (2002)....

  2. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-31

    China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH3) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH3 emissions. The total NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH3·yr(-1) (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH3·yr(-1)), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr(-1) increasing on average 4.4%·yr(-1). Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH3·yr(-1) (11.5-16.3TgNH3·yr(-1)). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Analysis of UK and European NOx and VOC emission scenarios in the Defra model intercomparison exercise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derwent, Richard; Beevers, Sean; Chemel, Charles; Cooke, Sally; Francis, Xavier; Fraser, Andrea; Heal, Mathew R.; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Lingard, Justin; Redington, Alison; Sokhi, Ranjeet; Vieno, Massimo

    2014-09-01

    Simple emission scenarios have been implemented in eight United Kingdom air quality models with the aim of assessing how these models compared when addressing whether photochemical ozone formation in southern England was NOx- or VOC-sensitive and whether ozone precursor sources in the UK or in the Rest of Europe (RoE) were the most important during July 2006. The suite of models included three Eulerian-grid models (three implementations of one of these models), a Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model and two moving box air parcel models. The assignments as to NOx- or VOC-sensitive and to UK- versus RoE-dominant, turned out to be highly variable and often contradictory between the individual models. However, when the assignments were filtered by model performance on each day, many of the contradictions could be eliminated. Nevertheless, no one model was found to be the 'best' model on all days, indicating that no single air quality model could currently be relied upon to inform policymakers robustly in terms of NOx- versus VOC-sensitivity and UK- versus RoE-dominance on each day. It is important to maintain a diversity in model approaches.

  4. Biohydrogen production from microalgal biomass: energy requirement, CO2 emissions and scale-up scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Ana F; Ortigueira, Joana; Alves, Luís; Gouveia, Luísa; Moura, Patrícia; Silva, Carla

    2013-09-01

    This paper presents a life cycle inventory of biohydrogen production by Clostridium butyricum through the fermentation of the whole Scenedesmus obliquus biomass. The main purpose of this work was to determine the energy consumption and CO2 emissions during the production of hydrogen. This was accomplished through the fermentation of the microalgal biomass cultivated in an outdoor raceway pond and the preparation of the inoculum and culture media. The scale-up scenarios are discussed aiming for a potential application to a fuel cell hybrid taxi fleet. The H2 yield obtained was 7.3 g H2/kg of S. obliquus dried biomass. The results show that the production of biohydrogen required 71-100 MJ/MJ(H2) and emitted about 5-6 kg CO2/MJ(H2). Other studies and production technologies were taken into account to discuss an eventual process scale-up. Increased production rates of microalgal biomass and biohydrogen are necessary for bioH2 to become competitive with conventional production pathways.

  5. Tracer transport for realistic aircraft emission scenarios calculated using a three-dimensional model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weaver, Clark J.; Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.

    1995-01-01

    A three-dimensional transport model, which uses winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system, is used to study the transport of supersonic aircraft exhaust in the lower stratosphere. A passive tracer is continuously injected into the transport model. The tracer source distribution is based on realistic scenarios for the daily emission rate of reactive nitrogen species for all forecasted flight routes. Winds are from northern hemisphere winter/spring months for 1979 and 1989; there are minimal differences between the tracer integrations for the 2 years. During the integration, peak tracer mixing ratios in the flight corridors are compared with the zonal mean and found to be greater by a factor of 2 or less. This implies that the zonal mean assumption used in two dimensional models is reasonable during winter and spring. There is a preference for pollutant buildup in the heavily traveled North Pacific and North Atlantic flight corridors. Pollutant concentration in the corridors depends on the position of the Aleutian anticyclone and the northern hemisphere polar vortex edge.

  6. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  7. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

    2017-03-28

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

  8. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

  9. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO2-Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO2-Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH4 and N2O in treatment, and the further release of CH4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO2-Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. A SCENARIO FOR THE FINE STRUCTURES OF SOLAR TYPE IIIb RADIO BURSTS BASED ON ELECTRON CYCLOTRON MASER EMISSION

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, C. B.

    2015-06-10

    A scenario based on electron cyclotron maser (ECM) emission is proposed for the fine structures of solar radio emission. It is suggested that under certain conditions modulation of the ratio between the plasma frequency and electron gyro frequency by ultra-low-frequency waves, which is a key parameter for excitation of ECM instability, may lead to the intermittent emission of radio waves. As an example, the explanation for the observed fine-structure components in the solar Type IIIb bursts is discussed in detail. Three primary issues of Type IIIb bursts are addressed: (1) the physical mechanism that results in intermittent emission elements that form a chain in the dynamic spectrum of Type IIIb bursts, (2) the cause of split pairs (or double stria) and triple stria, and (3) why only IIIb–III bursts are observed in the events of fundamental harmonic pair emission whereas IIIb–IIIb or III–IIIb bursts are very rarely observed.

  11. A Scenario for the Fine Structures of Solar Type IIIb Radio Bursts Based on Electron Cyclotron Maser Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C. B.

    2015-06-01

    A scenario based on electron cyclotron maser (ECM) emission is proposed for the fine structures of solar radio emission. It is suggested that under certain conditions modulation of the ratio between the plasma frequency and electron gyro frequency by ultra-low-frequency waves, which is a key parameter for excitation of ECM instability, may lead to the intermittent emission of radio waves. As an example, the explanation for the observed fine-structure components in the solar Type IIIb bursts is discussed in detail. Three primary issues of Type IIIb bursts are addressed: (1) the physical mechanism that results in intermittent emission elements that form a chain in the dynamic spectrum of Type IIIb bursts, (2) the cause of split pairs (or double stria) and triple stria, and (3) why only IIIb-III bursts are observed in the events of fundamental harmonic pair emission whereas IIIb-IIIb or III-IIIb bursts are very rarely observed.

  12. Early UV emission from disc-originated matter (DOM) in Type Ia supernovae in the double-degenerate scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levanon, Naveh; Soker, Noam

    2017-09-01

    We show that the blue and UV excess emission in the first few days of some Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) can be accounted in the double-degenerate (DD) scenario by the collision of the SN ejecta with circumstellar matter that was blown by the accretion disc formed during the merger process of the two white dwarfs (WDs). We assume that in cases of excess early light, the disc blows the circumstellar matter, that we term disc-originated matter (DOM), hours to days before explosion. To perform our analysis, we first provide a model-based definition for early excess light, replacing the definition of excess light relative to a power-law fit to the rising luminosity. We then examine the light curves of the SNe Ia iPTF14atg and SN 2012cg, and find that the collision of the ejecta with a DOM in the frame of the DD scenario can account for their early excess emission. Thus, early excess light does not necessarily imply the presence of a stellar companion in the frame of the single-degenerate scenario. Our findings further increase the variety of phenomena that the DD scenario can account for, and emphasize the need to consider all different SN Ia scenarios when interpreting observations.

  13. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  14. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  15. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh

    2016-02-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions—southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia—and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1 month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90 % of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2 weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes.

  16. Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joos, Fortunat; Prentice, I. Colin; Sitch, Stephen; Meyer, Robert; Hooss, Georg; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Gerber, Stefan; Hasselmann, Klaus

    2001-12-01

    A coupled physical-biogeochemical climate model that includes a dynamic global vegetation model and a representation of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is driven by the nonintervention emission scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Atmospheric CO2, carbon sinks, radiative forcing by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, changes in the fields of surface-air temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, ocean thermal expansion, and vegetation structure are projected. Up to 2100, atmospheric CO2 increases to 540 ppm for the lowest and to 960 ppm for the highest emission scenario analyzed. Sensitivity analyses suggest an uncertainty in these projections of -10 to +30% for a given emission scenario. Radiative forcing is estimated to increase between 3 and 8 W m-2 between now and 2100. Simulated warmer conditions in North America and Eurasia affect ecosystem structure: boreal trees expand poleward in high latitudes and are partly replaced by temperate trees and grasses at lower latitudes. The consequences for terrestrial carbon storage depend on the assumed sensitivity of climate to radiative forcing, the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature, and the rate of increase in radiative forcing by both CO2 and other GHGs. In the most extreme cases, the terrestrial biosphere becomes a source of carbon during the second half of the century. High GHG emissions and high contributions of non-CO2 agents to radiative forcing favor a transient terrestrial carbon source by enhancing warming and the associated release of soil carbon.

  17. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  18. Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

  19. Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

  20. Projection of global terrestrial nitrous oxide emission using future scenarios of climate and land-use management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inatomi, M. I.; Ito, A.

    2016-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O), with a centennial mean residence time in the atmosphere, is one of the most remarkable greenhouse gases. Because natural and anthropogenic emissions make comparable contributions, we need to take account of different sources of N2O such as natural soils and fertilizer in croplands to predict the future emission change and to discuss its mitigation. In this study, we conduct a series of simulations of future change in nitrous oxide emission from terrestrial ecosystems using a process-based model, VISIT. We assume a couple of scenarios of future climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, fertilizer input, and land-use change. In particular, we develop a new scenario of cropland fertilizer input on the basis of changes in crop productivity and fertilizer production cost. Expansion of biofuel crop production is considered but in a simplified manner (e.g., a specific fraction of pasture conversion to biofuel cultivation). Regional and temporal aspects of N2O emission are investigated and compared with previous studies. Finally, we make discussions, on the basis of simulated results, about the high-end of N2O emission, mitigation options, and impact of fertilizer input.

  1. Scenarios for halocarbon emissions in Finland and estimates of their impact on global warming and chlorine loading in the stratosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Pipatti, R.; Sinisalo, J.

    1994-07-01

    Finnish halocarbon (CFC, HCFC and HFC) emissions and their impact on global warming and chlorine loading in the stratosphere have been estimated. CFC consumption is estimated to have begun in the 1960s in Finland. CFCs deplete ozone and are therefore being phased out. In Finland, the deadline is the year 1995. The total Finnish CFC consumption during 1960-1994 is estimated to be about 70,000 tonnes. The yearly consumption has been, at most, about 3000 tonnes. CFCs will be partly substituted by HCFCs and HFCs. The yearly HCFC consumption has been around 300 tonnes since the mid 1980s. HFCs are new products and their use has been minor. Both HCFC and HFC consumption is assumed to increase. HCFCs will be gradually phased out between 1996 and 2030 because they also deplete ozone. No restrictions are planned for HFCs. CFC emissions are evaluated in two scenarios. In the base scenario, all the consumed amount is expected to be released to the atmosphere. In the recovery scenario, 75% of the amount now stored in equipment and products (about 10,000 tonnes) is assumed to be recovered. Even if consumption is phased out in 1994, emissions continue until the next century. 15 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.

  2. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

    PubMed

    Matsuno, Taroh; Maruyama, Koki; Tsutsui, Junichi

    2012-01-01

    Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO(2) emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.

  3. Improving fossil fuel emissions scenarios with urban ecosystem studies: A case study in the Salt Lake-Ogden metropolitan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pataki, D. E.; Dudley-Murphy, E. A.; Emmi, P. C.; Forster, C. B.; Mills, J. I.; Pardyjak, E. R.; Peterson, T. R.

    2005-05-01

    Scenarios of the future trajectory of fossil fuel emissions have been generated at the global scale using assumptions about regional to global economic growth and demography. A limitation to this approach is the mismatch in scale between local geographical, cultural, and economic factors that influence patterns of energy and fuel use and their impact on global emissions. However, resolving mismatches between local and global processes has been successfully addressed in other aspects of carbon cycle science, such as natural sources and sinks of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We propose a similar approach for reducing uncertainty in fossil fuel emissions scenarios with process-level studies of the factors underlying emissions at the local scale. We initiated a project to apply a whole ecosystem framework to the study of CO2 emissions in a rapidly urbanizing region in the United States. Our goal was to quantify both biophysical and socioeconomic aspects of urban ecosystem function that determined net CO2 emissions from the major sectors in the Salt Lake-Ogden metropolitan region, an area characterized by good historical records, a highly seasonal climate, and a rapid rate of both population growth and urban expansion. We analyzed the strong linkages between energy use and climate in the region with data from the local utilities. We also applied a linked land use- transportation framework that quantified interactions between urban development and emissions from the transportation sector. These processes were captured in a systems dynamics model of urban ecosystem function that incorporated stakeholder involvement in model development using a mediated modeling approach. The model was validated with direct measurements of CO2 fluxes by eddy covariance and attribution of local CO2 concentrations to fuel types using stable isotopes. The model may be used to evaluate possible consequences of policy levers such as changes in urban developmental densities, acceleration of

  4. Improving fossil fuel emissions scenarios with urban ecosystem studies: A case study in the Salt Lake-Ogden metropolitan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pataki, D. E.; Dudley-Murphy, E. A.; Emmi, P. C.; Forster, C. B.; Mills, J. I.; Pardyjak, E. R.; Peterson, T. R.

    2006-12-01

    Scenarios of the future trajectory of fossil fuel emissions have been generated at the global scale using assumptions about regional to global economic growth and demography. A limitation to this approach is the mismatch in scale between local geographical, cultural, and economic factors that influence patterns of energy and fuel use and their impact on global emissions. However, resolving mismatches between local and global processes has been successfully addressed in other aspects of carbon cycle science, such as natural sources and sinks of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We propose a similar approach for reducing uncertainty in fossil fuel emissions scenarios with process-level studies of the factors underlying emissions at the local scale. We initiated a project to apply a whole ecosystem framework to the study of CO2 emissions in a rapidly urbanizing region in the United States. Our goal was to quantify both biophysical and socioeconomic aspects of urban ecosystem function that determined net CO2 emissions from the major sectors in the Salt Lake-Ogden metropolitan region, an area characterized by good historical records, a highly seasonal climate, and a rapid rate of both population growth and urban expansion. We analyzed the strong linkages between energy use and climate in the region with data from the local utilities. We also applied a linked land use- transportation framework that quantified interactions between urban development and emissions from the transportation sector. These processes were captured in a systems dynamics model of urban ecosystem function that incorporated stakeholder involvement in model development using a mediated modeling approach. The model was validated with direct measurements of CO2 fluxes by eddy covariance and attribution of local CO2 concentrations to fuel types using stable isotopes. The model may be used to evaluate possible consequences of policy levers such as changes in urban developmental densities, acceleration of

  5. Analysis of consistency of global net land-use change carbon emission scenario using offline vegetation model and earth system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

    2010-12-01

    For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.

  6. ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

  7. ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

  8. Aircraft Emission Scenarios Projected in Year 2015 for the NASA Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) High Speed Civil Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCTs) on a universal airline network. Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The HSCT scenarios are calculated using the NASA technology concept airplane (TCA) and update an earlier report. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer pressure altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  9. Projecting insect voltinism under high and low greenhouse gas emission conditions.

    PubMed

    Chen, Shi; Fleischer, Shelby J; Tobin, Patrick C; Saunders, Michael C

    2011-06-01

    We develop individual-based Monte Carlo methods to explore how climate change can alter insect voltinism under varying greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by using input distributions of diapause termination or spring emergence, development rate, and diapause initiation, linked to daily temperature and photoperiod. We show concurrence of these projections with a field dataset, and then explore changes in grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), voltinism that may occur with climate projections developed from the average of three climate models using two different future emissions scenarios from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Based on historical climate data from 1960 to 2008, and projected downscaled climate data until 2099 under both high (A1fi) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we used concepts of P. viteana biology to estimate distributions of individuals entering successive generations per year. Under the low emissions scenario, we observed an earlier emergence from diapause and a shift in mean voltinism from 2.8 to 3.1 generations per year, with a fraction of the population achieving a fourth generation. Under the high emissions scenario, up to 3.6 mean generations per year were projected by the end of this century, with a very small fraction of the population achieving a fifth generation. Changes in voltinism in this and other species in response to climate change likely will cause significant economic and ecological impacts, and the methods presented here can be readily adapted to other species for which the input distributions are reasonably approximated.

  10. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO FORMATION SCENARIOS OF BURSTY RADIO EMISSION FROM ULTRACOOL DWARFS

    SciTech Connect

    Kuznetsov, A. A.; Doyle, J. G.; Yu, S.; Hallinan, G.; Antonova, A.; Golden, A.

    2012-02-10

    Recently, a number of ultracool dwarfs have been found to produce periodic radio bursts with high brightness temperature and polarization degree; the emission properties are similar to the auroral radio emissions of the magnetized planets of the solar system. We simulate the dynamic spectra of radio emission from ultracool dwarfs. The emission is assumed to be generated due to the electron-cyclotron maser instability. We consider two source models: the emission caused by interaction with a satellite and the emission from a narrow sector of active longitudes; the stellar magnetic field is modeled by a tilted dipole. We have found that for the dwarf TVLM 513-46546, the model of the satellite-induced emission is inconsistent with observations. On the other hand, the model of emission from an active sector is able to reproduce qualitatively the main features of the radio light curves of this dwarf; the magnetic dipole seems to be highly tilted (by about 60 Degree-Sign ) with respect to the rotation axis.

  11. Emissions of indoor air pollutants from six user scenarios in a model room

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Höllbacher, Eva; Ters, Thomas; Rieder-Gradinger, Cornelia; Srebotnik, Ewald

    2017-02-01

    In this study six common user scenarios putatively influencing indoor air quality were performed in a model room constructed according to the specifications of the European Reference Room given in the new horizontal prestandard prEN 16516 to gain further information about the influence of user activities on indoor air quality. These scenarios included the use of cleaning agent, an electric air freshener, an ethanol fireplace and cosmetics as well as cigarette smoking and peeling of oranges. Four common indoor air pollutants were monitored: volatile organic compounds (VOC), particulate matter (PM), carbonyl compounds and CO2. The development of all pollutants was determined during and after the test performance. For each measured pollutant, well-defined maximum values could be assigned to one or more of the individual user scenarios. The highest VOC concentration was measured during orange-peeling reaching a maximum value of 3547 μg m-3. Carbonyl compounds and PM were strongly elevated while cigarette smoking. Here, a maximum formaldehyde concentration of 76 μg m-3 and PM concentration of 378 μg m-3 were measured. CO2 was only slightly affected by most of the tests except the use of the ethanol fireplace where a maximum concentration of 1612 ppm was reached. Generally, the user scenarios resulted in a distinct increase of several indoor pollutants that usually decreased rapidly after the removal of the source.

  12. Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

  13. Assessment of regional acidifying pollutants in the Athabasca oil sands area under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Sunny; Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Morris, Ralph; Pauls, Ron

    2017-05-01

    Acid deposition is a potential environmental impact of oil sands development in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in Northeastern Alberta. An acid deposition management framework has been established to manage this issue. This framework includes an acid deposition modelling and time-to-effect impact assessment component that was recently implemented for four acidifying emissions cases using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Predicted gross Potential Acid Input (PAI) deposition in the AOSR increases from the historical to existing case with further increases predicted in two future cases due to the projected increase in NOx emissions. On average the total predicted PAI deposition in the AOSR is approximately 40% sulphur deposition and 60% nitrogen deposition. Sulphur deposition decreases by 7% from the historical to existing cases due to the reductions in SO2 emissions that have occurred in the AOSR but increases by 5% from the existing to future case 1 and by 8% from existing to future case 2 even though continued AOSR SO2 emission decreases were modelled. This is likely the result of the deposition reduction associated with a single large reduction in SO2 emissions from one facility's main stack being offset elsewhere in the AOSR by deposition increases due to small increases in SO2 emissions from several in situ sources with shorter stacks. Average nitrogen deposition over the AOSR increases by 10% from the historical to existing case and then further increases by 10.6% from the existing case to future case 1 and by 12.3% from the existing case to future case 2. The increasing relevance of NOx emissions over SO2 emissions in the AOSR suggests that a robust treatment of nitrogen chemistry such as in CMAQ is required for conducting deposition assessments in the region. The modelling results provide information that can be used to inform oil sands emission management priorities in the context of acid deposition and nitrogen eutrophication

  14. A scenario analysis of the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of a new residential area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Säynäjoki, Antti; Heinonen, Jukka; Junnila, Seppo

    2012-09-01

    While buildings are often credited as accounting for some 40% of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the construction phase is typically assumed to account for only around one tenth of the overall emissions. However, the relative importance of construction phase emissions is quickly increasing as the energy efficiency of buildings increases. In addition, the significance of construction may actually be much higher when the temporal perspective of the emissions is taken into account. The construction phase carbon spike, i.e. high GHG emissions in a short time associated with the beginning of the building’s life cycle, may be high enough to question whether new construction, no matter how energy efficient the buildings are, can contribute to reaching the greenhouse gas mitigation goals of the near future. Furthermore, the construction of energy efficient buildings causes more GHG emissions than the construction of conventional buildings. On the other hand, renovating the current building stock together with making energy efficiency improvements might lead to a smaller construction phase carbon spike and still to the same reduced energy consumption in the use phase as the new energy efficient buildings. The study uses a new residential development project in Northern Europe to assess the overall life cycle GHG emissions of a new residential area and to evaluate the influence of including the temporal allocation of the life cycle GHG emissions in the assessment. In the study, buildings with different energy efficiency levels are compared with a similar hypothetical area of buildings of the average existing building stock, as well as with a renovation of an area with average buildings from the 1960s. The GHG emissions are modeled with a hybrid life cycle assessment. The study suggests that the carbon payback time of constructing new residential areas is several decades long even when using very energy efficient buildings compared to utilizing the current

  15. Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Wein, Anne; Bliss, Norman B.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Li, Zhengpeng

    2015-01-01

    We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss and potential carbon savings. Wetland avoided loss scenarios, superimposed upon LULC change scenarios, quantified carbon stocks preserved under criteria of carbon densities or land value plus cropland suitability. Up to 3420 km2 of wetlands may be lost in the region by 2050, mainly due to conversion of herbaceous wetlands in the Temperate Prairies where soil organic carbon (SOC) is highest. SOC loss would be approximately 0.20 ± 0.15 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year (MgC ha−1 yr−1), depending upon tillage practices on converted wetlands, and total ecosystem carbon loss in woody wetlands would be approximately 0.81 ± 0.41 MgC ha−1 yr−1, based on biogeochemical model results. Among wetlands vulnerable to conversion, wetlands in the Northern Glaciated Plains and Lake Agassiz Plains ecoregions exhibit very high mean SOC and on average, relatively low land values, potentially creating economically competitive opportunities for avoided carbon loss. This mitigation scenarios approach may be adapted by managers using their own preferred criteria to select sites that best meet their objectives. Results can help prioritize field-based assessments, where site-level investigations of carbon stocks, land value, and consideration of local priorities for climate change mitigation programs are needed.

  16. Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, T.

    2015-12-01

    A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

  17. The "Far Site" Scenario for Gamma-ray Emission in Blazars. A View from the VLBI Observing Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agudo, Iván

    2013-12-01

    Since the birth of γ-ray astronomy, locating the origin of γ-ray emission has been a fundamental problem for the knowledge of the emission processes involved. Densely time sampled monitoring programs with very long baseline interferometry and the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope, together with several other facilities at most of the available spectral ranges (including polarization measurements if possible) are starting to shed new light for the case of blazars. A successful observing technique consists on analyzing the timing of multi-waveband variations in the flux and linear polarization, as well as changes in ultra-high resolution VLBI images to associate the particularly bright events at different wavebands. Such association can be robustly demonstrated by probing the statistical significance of the correlation among spectral ranges through Monte Carlo simulations. The location of the high energy emission region is inferred through its relative location with regard to the associated low energy event observed in the VLBI images. In this paper, I present some of the latest results using this method that locate the GeV emission within the jets of blazars AO 0235+164 and OJ287 at > 12 pc from the central AGN engine, hence supporting the "far site" scenario.

  18. Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios

    Treesearch

    M. Hurteau; M. North

    2009-01-01

    Forests are viewed as a potential sink for carbon (C) that might otherwise contribute to climate change. It is unclear, however, how to manage forests with frequent fire regimes to maximize C storage while reducing C emissions from prescribed burns or wildfire. We modeled the effects of eight different fuel treatments on treebased C storage and release over a century,...

  19. Trend and uncertainty analysis of simulated climate change impacts with multiple GCMs and emission scenarios

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Impacts of climate change on hydrology, soil erosion, and wheat production during 2010-2039 at El Reno in central Oklahoma, USA, were simulated using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Projections from four GCMs (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emissions scenari...

  20. Can trace gas emission be modified by management scenarios in the northern Corn Belt?

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Field plots were established in 2002 in west central Minnesota to compare tillage, rotation and fertilizer treatments and to identify and develop economically-viable and environmentally- sustainable farming systems. Greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide, methane and carbon dioxide) was monitored in...

  1. Greenhouse Gas Emission from Contrasting Management Scenarios in the Northern Corn Belt

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Long-term cropping systems field plots were established in 2002 in west central Minnesota to compare tillage, rotation and fertilizer treatments and to identify and develop economically viable and environmentally sustainable farming systems. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission was monitored in three scena...

  2. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin; Langren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

    2017-04-01

    This work aims to study the changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in a world of changing emissions and climate by focusing on India. Stakeholders in India are already aware about air quality issues but anthropogenic emissions are projected to largely increase for some of the pollutants in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no more policy efforts are made. Only the policies in place before 2014/15 have been taken into account while projecting the future emissions. Current policies have led to decrease in emission intensities, however may not be enough for control of absolute emissions in future. In this study, the regional EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model is used forced by downscaled meteorological fields at a 50 km resolution following the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated with surface-based measurements. Given the relatively coarse resolution of the meteorological fields used for this comparison with urban observations, the agreement can be considered satisfactory as high correlations with O3 (r=0.9) and PM2.5 (r=0.5 and r=0.8 depending on the data set) are noticed. The bias in PM2.5 is limited (lower than 6%) but the model overestimates the O3 by 35%. Then, this work shows that in the 2050s, the variation in O3 linked to the climate change is mainly due to the change in O3 deposition velocity related to the change in the boundary layer height and, over a few areas, by changes in VOCs. At short term and medium-term, the PM2.5 is predicted to increase due to climate change, by up to 6.5% in the 2050s. This climatic variation is mainly explained by increases in dust, organic matter and secondary inorganic aerosols which are affected by the change in wind speed and precipitations. The large increase in anthropogenic emissions will modify the composition of PM2.5 over India as the secondary inorganic aerosols will be dominant. The

  3. ESP v2.0: enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States - addressing spatial allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ran, L.; Loughlin, D. H.; Yang, D.; Adelman, Z.; Baek, B. H.; Nolte, C. G.

    2015-01-01

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census Division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.

  4. Model study of the impact of biogenic emission on regional ozone and the effectiveness of emission reduction scenarios over eastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Zhiwei; Ueda, Hiromasa; Matsuda, Kazuhide

    2005-02-01

    The impact of biogenic emission on regional ozone and emission control scenarios has been numerically studied through a series of sensitivity model simulations. A typical episode with elevated ozone over eastern China from 12 to 16 August 2001 was investigated by using a tropospheric chemistry and transport model (TCTM), driven by a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5. The meteorological conditions during this period were characterized by high-pressure systems associated with low wind speeds, high temperatures and clear skies. Afternoon ozone concentrations exceeding 80 parts per billion (ppb) occurred over broad areas of eastern China. There is a generally good agreement between simulation and observation, indicating that the TCTM is able to represent major physical and chemical processes of tropospheric ozone and well reproduce the diurnal and day-to-day variability associated with synoptic conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals a significant influence of biogenic hydrocarbons on regional ozone. Ozone levels are apparently enhanced by biogenic emission over large areas of eastern China. The largest increase up to 30 ppb in daytime average concentration is found in portions of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Yangtze Delta and northeast China. However, the response of ozone to biogenic emission varies spatially, showing more sensitivity in polluted areas than that in clean rural areas. The regimes limited by nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic carbon (VOC) in eastern China are further investigated with respect to biogenic emission. Ozone shows a clear tendency to shift from VOC limitation to NOx limitation as it moves from urban and industrial areas to rural areas. Most of the rural areas in southern China tend to be NOx limited, whereas most of the northern parts of China appear to be VOC limited. By considering biogenic emission, ozone tends to become more NOx limited and less VOC limited, both in extent and intensity, over eastern china

  5. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

  6. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. <5 years (immature), 5-20 and >21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N2O) and the resulting CO2-eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N2O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO2-eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  7. A modeling comparison of deep greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios by 2030 in California

    DOE PAGES

    Yeh, Sonia; Yang, Christopher; Gibbs, Michael; ...

    2016-10-21

    California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs),more » demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.« less

  8. A modeling comparison of deep greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios by 2030 in California

    SciTech Connect

    Yeh, Sonia; Yang, Christopher; Gibbs, Michael; Roland-Holst, David; Greenblatt, Jeffery; Mahone, Amber; Wei, Dan; Brinkman, Gregory; Cunningham, Joshua; Eggert, Anthony; Haley, Ben; Hart, Elaine; Williams, Jim

    2016-10-21

    California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.

  9. Canadian economic and emissions model for agriculture, C.E.E.M.A., version 1.0, report 2: Preliminary results of selected scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kulshreshtha, S.N.

    1999-09-01

    This is one of three technical reports which document an integrated agro-ecological economic modelling system that can be used to simultaneously assess the economic and the greenhouse gas emission impacts of agricultural policies at the regional and national levels. After an introduction on the importance of agricultural emissions of greenhouse gases and the need for a study of this issue, chapter 2 reviews the greenhouse gas emission model. Chapter 3 contains model-based estimates of greenhouse gas emission levels for the base year of 1990. Chapter 4 predicts future levels of emissions under medium-term baseline projections. Chapter 5 reviews some of the mitigation strategies available to Canadian farmers and assesses their impact on greenhouse emissions. Implications of trends in livestock production are also examined as a separate scenario. Using the scenarios developed in chapter 5, chapter 6 presents results of greenhouse gas emission estimates for individual gases, various production regions, and various emissions activities. The final chapter summarizes major results and discusses their implications for agricultural policy. Appendices include a description of the modelling methodology and a table showing estimates of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by crop and livestock production activities under various scenarios.

  10. Hadronic Scenarios for Gamma-Ray Emission from Three Supernova Remnants Interacting with Molecular Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Huan; Fang, Jun; Zhang, Li

    2014-04-01

    GeV γ-rays detected with the large area telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray space telescope in the direction of HB21, MSH 17-39 and G337.0-0.1 have been recently reported. The three supernova remnants (SNRs) show interactions with molecular clouds, and they are effective gamma-ray emitters as the relativistic protons accelerated by the SNR shocks inelastically colliding with the dense gas in the clouds. The origin of the observed γ-rays for the three remnants is investigated in the scenario of the diffusive shock acceleration. In the model, a part of the SNR shock transmits into the nearby molecular clouds, and the shock velocity is greatly reduced. As a result, a shock with a relatively low Alfvén Mach number is generated, and the spectra of the accelerated protons and the γ-ray photons produced via proton-proton interaction can be obtained. The results show that the observed γ-ray spectra for the three SNRs interacting with the molecular clouds can be reproduced. It can be concluded that the hadronic origin of the γ-rays for the three SNRs is approved, and the ability of SNR shocks to accelerate protons is also supported.

  11. Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilhan, Asli; Ünal, Yurdanur S.

    2017-04-01

    Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios A. ILHAN ve Y. S. UNAL Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorology In the study, 50 km resolution downscaled results of two different Earth System Models (ESM) HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM with regional climate model of RegCM are used to estimate present and future climate conditions over Mediterranean Basin. The purpose of this study is to compare the projections of two ESMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) over the region of interest seasonally and annually with 50 km resolution. Temperature and precipitation parameters for reference period (1971-2000) and future (2015-2100) are analyzed. The average temperature and total precipitation distributions of each downscaled ESM simulations were compared with observation data (Climate Research Unit-CRU data) to explore the capability of each model for the representation of the current climate. According to reference period values of CRU, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM, it is seen that both models are warmer and wetter than observations and have positive temperature biases only around Caspian Sea and positive precipitation biases over Eastern and Central Europe. The future projections (from 2015 to 2100) of HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are compared with reference period (from 1971 to 2000) and analyzed for temperature and precipitation parameters. The downscaled HadGEM2-ES forced by RCP8.5 scenario produces higher temperatures than the MPI-ESM-MR. The reasons of this warming can be sensitivity of HadGEM2-ES to greenhouse gases and high radiative forcing (+8.5 W/m2). On the other hand, MPI-ESM produce more precipitation than HadGEM2-ES. In order to analyze regional responses of the climate model chains, five main regions are selected which are Turkey, Central Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North Africa. The average biases of the Had

  12. Study of the impact of cruise and passenger ships on a Mediterranean port city air quality - Study of future emission mitigation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Kontos, Serafim; Giannaros, Christos; Melas, Dimitrios

    2015-04-01

    An increase of the passenger ships traffic is expected in the Mediterranean Sea as targeted by the EU Blue Growth initiative. This increase is expected to impact the Mediterranean port-cities air quality considering not only the conventional atmospheric pollutants but also the toxic ones that are emitted by the ships (e.g. Nickel). The aim of this study is the estimation of the present and future time pollutant emissions from cruise and passenger maritime transport in the port area of Thessaloniki (Greece) as well as the impact of those emissions on the city air quality. Cruise and passenger ship emissions have been estimated for the year 2013 over a 100m spatial resolution grid which covers the greater port area of Thessaloniki. Emissions have been estimated for the following macro-pollutants; NOx, SO2, NMVOC, CO, CO2 and particulate matter (PM). In addition, the most important micro-pollutants studied in this work are As, Cd, Pb, Ni and Benzo(a)pyrene for which air quality limits have been set by the EU. Emissions have been estimated for three operation modes; cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. For the calculation of the present time maritime emissions, the activity data used were provided by the Thessaloniki Port Authority S.A. Moreover, future pollutant emissions are estimated using the future activity data provided by the Port Authority and the IMO legislation for shipping in the future. In addition, two mitigation emission scenarios are examined; the use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a fuel used by ships and the implementation of cold ironing which is the electrification of ships during hotelling mode leading to the elimination of the corresponding emissions. The impact of the present and future passenger ship emissions on the air quality of Thessaloniki is examined with the use of the model CALPUFF applied over the 100m spatial resolution grid using the meteorology of WRF. Simulations of the modeling system are performed for four different emission

  13. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    PubMed

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  14. Netherlands policy-making process on scenarios and projections for greenhouse gas emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkus, Henk; Iestra, Wim

    1996-01-01

    An important commitment in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) for so-called Annex I Parties (OECD plus Central and Eastern Europe) is the communication on climate change policies. A detailed description of policies and measures and specific estimates of their effects on projected anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks are crucial chapters in each Annex I Party communication. This article focuses on the Netherlands' climate change policy-making process with respect to projections of greenhouse gases (GHG). A main element of this process is the periodic monitoring of the progress of climate change policy, including assessment of effects of implemented measures, updating the validity of assumptions made, and analysis of structural economic changes. Another element of this policy-making process is analysis of the cost-effectiveness of possible mitigation options and evaluation of the impacts of these options. Several monitoring and analysis instruments and modeling tools used in this process are discussed, as is the broader framework. Attention is also given to the FCCC review process and its relevance for the Netherlands' policy-making process.

  15. Mars methane emission and transport scenarios using the GEM-Mars GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neary, Lori; Daerden, Frank; Kaminski, J. W.; McConnell, J. C.

    2010-05-01

    The observation of methane (Formisano et al., 2004; Krasnopolsky et al., 2004; Mumma et al., 2009) in the Martian atmosphere has raised questions about its source and origin as well as its chemical behaviour. The photochemical lifetime of methane is on the order of several hundred years which would give a well-mixed, uniform distribution but measurements suggest locally enhanced "plumes". The GEM-Mars three-dimensional global chemistry-climate model is used to investigate the possible emission rates and lifetime of methane. The model simulations have a horizontal resolution of 4x4 degrees with 101 vertical levels up to approximately 140 km. References Formisano, V., S. Atreya, T. Encrenaz, N. Ignatiev, and M. Giuranna (2004), Detection of Methane in the Atmosphere of Mars, Science 306, 1758 (2004). Krasnopolsky, V. A., J. P. Maillard, and T. C. Owen (2004), Icarus 172, 537. Mumma, M.J., G.L. Villanueva, R.E. Novak, T. Hewagama, B.P. Bonev, M.A. DiSanti, A.M. Mandell, and M.D. Smith (2009), Strong Release of Methane on Mars in Northern Summer 2003. Science, 2009. 323: p. 1041-1045.

  16. Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2016-03-01

    A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

  17. Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

    SciTech Connect

    McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McMahon, James E.

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.

  18. Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

    PubMed

    Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

    2017-08-22

    Today's heavy-duty natural gas fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than two percent of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50 percent. While fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas fueled vehicles and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "Pump-to-Wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete Wells-to-Wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emission projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emission reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Implications Newly collected Pump to Wheels methane emissions data for current

  19. Life-cycle analysis of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption in the 2016 MYPP algal biofuel scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Frank, Edward; Pegallapati, Ambica K.; Davis, Ryan; Markham, Jennifer; Coleman, Andre; Jones, Sue; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Zhu, Yunhua

    2016-06-16

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients. The present report describes a life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the CAP and HTL options for the three scenarios just described. Water use is also reported. Water use during algal biofuel production comes from evaporation during cultivation, discharge to bleed streams to control pond salinity (“blowdown”), and from use during preprocessing and upgrading. For scenarios considered to date, most water use was from evaporation and, secondarily, from bleed streams. Other use was relatively small at the level of

  20. ESP v2.0: enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States - addressing spatial allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ran, L.; Loughlin, D. H.; Yang, D.; Adelman, Z.; Baek, B. H.; Nolte, C. G.

    2015-06-01

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year non-power sector emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.

  1. The particle production at the event horizon of a black hole as gravitational Fowler-Nordheim emission in uniformly accelerated frame, in the non-relativistic scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De, Sanchari; Ghosh, Sutapa; Chakrabarty, Somenath

    2015-11-01

    In the conventional scenario, the Hawking radiation is believed to be a tunneling process at the event horizon of the black hole. In the quantum field theoretic approach the Schwinger's mechanism is generally used to give an explanation of this tunneling process. It is the decay of quantum vacuum into particle anti-particle pairs near the black hole surface. However, in a reference frame undergoing a uniform accelerated motion in an otherwise flat Minkowski space-time geometry, in the non-relativistic approximation, the particle production near the event horizon of a black hole may be treated as a kind of Fowler-Nordheim field emission, which is the typical electron emission process from a metal surface under the action of an external electrostatic field. This type of emission from metal surface is allowed even at extremely low temperature. It has been noticed that in one-dimensional scenario, the Schrödinger equation satisfied by the created particle (anti-particle) near the event horizon, can be reduced to a differential form which is exactly identical with that obeyed by an electron immediately after the emission from the metal surface under the action of a strong electrostatic field. The mechanism of particle production near the event horizon of a black hole is therefore identified with Schwinger process in relativistic quantum field theory, whereas in the non-relativistic scenario it may be interpreted as Fowler-Nordheim emission process, when observed from a uniformly accelerated frame.

  2. Testing different scenarios of emissions from global fossil fuel production using a multi-decadal record of simulated and observed ethane data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, L. B.; Butenhoff, C. L.; Rice, A. L.; Kahlil, A.

    2016-12-01

    Ethane is emitted with methane and other trace gases in the production of oil and natural gas during drilling, venting, flaring, and from infrastructure leaks during storage and distribution. Fugitive emissions from oil and gas production are one of the largest anthropogenic sources of ethane and methane and contribute significantly to global trends in their atmospheric burdens. The climate advantage of replacing coal with natural gas in energy portfolios depends critically on methane leakage rates. Because gas fluxes vary widely across production fields and distribution networks, efforts to estimate national and global rates of emissions using bottom-up accounting methods face significant challenges. Recent studies of firn and surface observations show a marked decline in global atmospheric ethane in the 1980s and 1990s which have been interpreted as a decline in fossil fuel ethane emissions. However, this conclusion is contradicted by some bottom-up emissions inventories and global inversions of isotopic methane which find fossil fuel emissions have been flat or increased during this time with a decline in biomass burning emissions. To investigate the temporal record of ethane emissions further, we use four decades (1982 - 2015) of surface air observations of ethane from three sampling networks to test competing ethane emissions scenarios evaluated with the three-dimensional atmospheric chemical-transport model GEOS-Chem. Because ethane's main sources (fossil fuel production, biomass and biofuel burning) have different spatial footprints, we hypothesize that temporal trends for each source, if they exist, will leave unique signatures in the latitudinal distribution of ethane over time. We use GEOS-Chem to predict the source latitudinal trend signatures and assess the ability of the observational ethane record to eliminate different emissions scenarios, providing insight into the recent history of fugitive emissions from fossil fuel production.

  3. The effect of climate change and emission scenarios on ozone concentrations over Belgium: a high-resolution model study for policy support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauwaet, D.; Viaene, P.; Brisson, E.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.; van Noije, T.; Strunk, A.; Van Looy, S.; Veldeman, N.; Blyth, L.; De Ridder, K.; Janssen, S.

    2014-06-01

    Belgium is one of the areas within Europe experiencing the highest levels of air pollution. A high-resolution (3 km) modelling experiment is employed to provide guidance to policymakers about expected air quality changes in the near future (2026-2035). The regional air quality model AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), driven by output from a regional climate model, is used to simulate several 10-year time slices to investigate the impact of climatic changes and different emission scenarios on near-surface O3 concentrations, one of the key indices for air quality. Evaluation of the model against measurements from 34 observation stations shows that the AURORA model is capable of reproducing 10-year mean concentrations, daily cycles and spatial patterns. The results for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 emission scenario indicate that the mean surface O3 concentrations are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to less O3 titration by reduced NOx emissions. Applying an alternative emission scenario for Europe is found to have only a minor impact on the overall concentrations, which are dominated by the background changes. Climate change alone has a much smaller effect on the near-surface O3 concentrations over Belgium than the projected emission changes. The very high horizontal resolution that is used in this study results in much improved spatial correlations and simulated peak concentrations compared to a standard 25 km simulation. An analysis of the number of peak episodes during summer revealed that the emission reductions in RCP4.5 result in a 25% decrease of these peak episodes.

  4. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: A practical zero-emissions scenario

    PubMed Central

    MATSUNO, Taroh; MARUYAMA, Koki; TSUTSUI, Junichi

    2012-01-01

    Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 ℃ above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO2 emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint. PMID:22850728

  5. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  6. Modeling of Future-Year Emissions Control Scenarios for the Lower Fraser Valley: Impacts of Natural Gas and Propane Vehicle Technologies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hedley, M.; Jiang, W.; McLaren, R.; Singleton, D. L.

    1998-10-01

    The MC2-CALGRID photochemical modeling system is used to simulate the impact of two fuel substitution scenarios on ozone levels for a future year in the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia, Canada. The relative impacts of selected natural gas and propane vehicle technologies are compared for the year 2005. The chosen natural gas technology imposes large reductions in nonmethane hydrocarbon emissions with moderate reductions in nitrogen oxide emissions, while the propane technology greatly lowers nitrogen oxide emissions with only small changes to nonmethane hydrocarbon emissions.The model results showed that replacing the entire light-duty gasoline car and truck fleet with the selected natural gas vehicle technology in the year 2005 in the Canadian portion of the Lower Fraser Valley yielded significant benefits in terms of reducing potential exposures to elevated ozone levels in suburban and rural areas. Sites closer to the urban core were less affected. For the propane fuel substitution, benefits were realized in terms of lowering ozone concentrations and ozone exposures in the rural areas. Within the urban and suburban areas, ozone exposures tended to increase. The exposures to peroxyacetyl nitrate were universally smaller in the alternative fuel scenarios.The nature of an effective control strategy for the Lower Fraser Valley is discussed, and it is suggested that in addition to the propane fuel substitution, moderate controls on the primary NOx sources in conjunction with moderate nonmethane hydrocarbon controls could be the preferred route to lower ozone exposures.

  7. Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

    2017-04-01

    In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air

  8. Regional climate change over South Korea projected by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Joong-Bae; Im, Eun-Soon; Jo, Sera

    2017-04-01

    This study assesses the regional climate projection newly projected within the framework of the national downscaling project in South Korea. The fine-scale climate information (12.5 km) is produced by dynamical downscaling of the HadGEM2-AO global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and 8.5) scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Changes in temperature and precipitation in terms of long-term trends, daily characteristics and extremes are presented by comparing two 30 yr periods (2041-2070 vs. 2071-2100). The temperature increase presents a relevant trend, but the degree of warming varies in different periods and emission scenarios. While the temperature distribution from the RCP8.5 projection is continuously shifted toward warmer conditions by the end of the 21st century, the RCP4.5 projection appears to stabilize warming in accordance with emission forcing. This shift in distribution directly affects the magnitude of extremes, which enhances extreme hot days but reduces extreme cold days. Precipitation changes, however, do not respond monotonically to emission forcing, as they exhibit less sensitivity to different emission scenarios. An enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation are discernible, implying an intensified hydrologic cycle. Changes in return levels of annual maximum precipitation suggest an increased probability of extreme precipitation with 20 yr and 50 yr return periods. Acknowledgement : This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA 2015-2081

  9. Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Ying; Tao, Shu; Price, Oliver R; Shen, Huizhong; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-12-01

    SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction.

  10. Impact of passenger car NOx emissions and NO2 fractions on urban NO2 pollution - Scenario analysis for the city of Antwerp, Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degraeuwe, Bart; Thunis, Philippe; Clappier, Alain; Weiss, Martin; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Vranckx, Stijn

    2016-02-01

    The annual NO2 concentrations in many European cities exceed the established air quality standard. This situation is mainly caused by Diesel cars whose NOx emissions are higher on the road than during type approval in the laboratory. Moreover, the fraction of NO2 in the NOx emissions of modern diesel cars appears to have increased as compared to previous models. In this paper, we assess 1) to which level the distance-specific NOx emissions of Diesel cars should be reduced to meet established air quality standards and 2) if it would be useful to introduce a complementary NO2 emissions limit. We develop a NO2 pollution model that accounts in an analysis of 9 emission scenarios for changes in both, the urban background NO2 concentrations and the local NO2 emissions at street level. We apply this model to the city of Antwerp, Belgium. The results suggest that a reduction in NOx emissions decreases the regional and urban NO2 background concentration; high NO2 fractions increase the ambient NO2 concentrations only in close spatial proximity to the emission source. In a busy access road to the city centre, the average NO2 concentration can be reduced by 23% if Diesel cars emitted 0.35 g NOx/km instead of the current 0.62 g NOx/km. Reductions of 45% are possible if the NOX emissions of Diesel cars decreased to the level of gasoline cars (0.03 g NOx/km). Our findings suggest that the Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) test procedure can solve the problem of NO2 exceedances in cities if it reduced the on-road NOx emissions of diesel cars to the permissible limit of 0.08 g/km. The implementation of a complementary NO2 emissions limit may then become superfluous. If Diesel cars continue to exceed by several factors their NOx emissions limit on the road, a shift of the vehicle fleet to gasoline cars may be necessary to solve persisting air quality problems.

  11. Patterns in CH4 and CO2 concentrations across boreal rivers: Major drivers and implications for fluvial greenhouse emissions under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Campeau, Audrey; Del Giorgio, Paul A

    2014-04-01

    It is now widely accepted that boreal rivers and streams are regionally significant sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), yet their role as methane (CH4) emitters, as well as the sensitivity of these greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to climate change, are still largely undefined. In this study, we explore the large-scale patterns of fluvial CO2 and CH4 partial pressure (pCO2 , pCH4) and gas exchange (k) relative to a set of key, climate-sensitive river variables across 46 streams and rivers in two distinct boreal landscapes of Northern Québec. We use the resulting models to determine the direction and magnitude of C-gas emissions from these boreal fluvial networks under scenarios of climate change. River pCO2 and pCH4 were positively correlated, although the latter was two orders of magnitude more variable. We provide evidence that in-stream metabolism strongly influences the dynamics of surface water pCO2 and pCH4 , but whereas pCO2 is not influenced by temperature in the surveyed streams and rivers, pCH4 appears to be strongly temperature-dependent. The major predictors of ambient gas concentrations and exchange were water temperature, velocity, and DOC, and the resulting models indicate that total GHG emissions (C-CO2 equivalent) from the entire network may increase between by 13 to 68% under plausible scenarios of climate change over the next 50 years. These predicted increases in fluvial GHG emissions are mostly driven by a steep increase in the contribution of CH4 (from 36 to over 50% of total CO2 -equivalents). The current role of boreal fluvial networks as major landscape sources of C is thus likely to expand, mainly driven by large increases in fluvial CH4 emissions.

  12. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

  13. Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

    PubMed

    Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

    2017-03-01

    In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure.

  14. Non-variable TeV emission from the extended jet of a blazar in the stochastic acceleration scenario: the case of the hard TeV emission of 1ES 1101-232

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Dahai; Zeng, Houdun; Zhang, Li

    2012-08-01

    The detections of X-ray emission from the kiloparsec-scale jets of blazars and radio galaxies could imply the existence of high-energy electrons in these extended jets, and these electrons could produce high-energy emission through the inverse Compton (IC) process. In this paper, we study the non-variable hard TeV emission from a blazar. The multiband emission consists of two components: (i) the traditional synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) emission from the inner jet; (ii) the emission produced via SSC and IC scattering of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons (IC/CMB) and extragalactic background light (EBL) photons by relativistic electrons in the extended jet under the stochastic acceleration scenario. Such a model is applied to 1ES 1101-232. The results indicate the following. (i) The non-variable hard TeV emission of 1ES 1101-232, which is dominated by IC/CMB emission from the extended jet, can be reproduced well by using three characteristic values of the Doppler factor (δD = 5, 10 and 15) for the TeV-emitting region in the extended jet. (ii) In the cases of δD = 15 and 10, the physical parameters can achieve equipartition (or quasi-equipartition) between the relativistic electrons and the magnetic field. In contrast, the physical parameters largely deviate from equipartition for the case of δD = 5. Therefore, we conclude that the TeV emission region of 1ES 1101-232 in the extended jet should be moderately or highly beamed.

  15. The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urban, Daniel W.; Sheffield, Justin; Lobell, David B.

    2015-04-01

    The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century.

  16. Detection of Extended Radio Emission in the Center of NGC 404: Implications for the Accreting Intermediate-Mass Black Hole Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyland, Kristina; Wrobel, Joan; Young, Lisa

    2016-01-01

    We present the results of a 0.15"-resolution (2.25 pc), Ku-band (12-18 GHz) Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) study of the nucleus of NGC 404. Previous 5 GHz VLA observations at a spatial resolution of 0.4" revealed compact radio emission co-located with a hard X-ray nuclear point source and the optical center of the galaxy, within the known errors. This was interpreted as evidence that the candidate intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) in the center of NGC 404 is actively accreting material at low levels. However, follow-up milliarcsecond-resolution, very long baseline interferometric (VLBI) observations did not detect any emission, challenging the accreting IMBH interpretation. Our Ku-band observations bridge the gap in spatial resolution between the previous VLA and VLBI observations, and successfully resolve the radio emission (d ~ 17 pc) previously imaged at lower resolution. In combination with the existing VLA data, the new Ku-band data indicate a steep integrated radio spectral index from 1 to 18 GHz, suggesting the source is dominated by optically-thin synchrotron emission. We build upon the existing multiwavelength observations of this galaxy and provide a re-assessment of the physical origin of the extended radio emission near the center of NGC 404. While an accreting IMBH remains a strong possibility for the origin of the radio source, our new analysis strengthens the case for a supernova remnant origin. We discuss future observational tests needed to distinguish between these scenarios, as well as the importance of accurately determining the properties of the NGC 404 nuclear engine in the context of the fundamental plane of black hole activity.

  17. Radon mapping, automatic measurements and extremely high 222Rn emissions during the 2002-2007 eruptive scenarios at Stromboli volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cigolini, C.; Laiolo, M.; Ulivieri, G.; Coppola, D.; Ripepe, M.

    2013-08-01

    We report additional radon data collected at Stromboli during 2002-2007. The whole data set of periodic measurements has been systematically analyzed to retrieve the values of background, threshold and anomaly for all the stations of the network. Maps of radon concentrations in space and time correlate with changes in volcanic activity. Higher radon emissions are essentially concentrated at summit stations and may also affect some stations located onto the summit-eastern sector of the cone (along the N60°E fracture zone), as well as two stations placed at the NE edge of Sciara del Fuoco. Most of these stations are well above their threshold values during effusive eruptions (namely 2002-2003 and 2007) due to the progressive structural adjustment of the volcano edifice coupled with the opening and resetting of the fracture network. A two-year-long timeseries of automatic 222Rn measurements (2005-2007) was analyzed together with local environmental parameters and selected geophysical data (on seismic tremor and infrasonic puffing). The data show good correlation between radon and the latter parameters particularly during periods of high Strombolian activity (March-April 2006), and before the onset of the February 27, 2007 lava effusion (with radon emissions being well above 20,000 Bq/m3). Extremely high radon emissions (up to ~ 1.7 × 106 Bq/m3) were recorded along the fractures of the SW crater during the first two months of the 2002-2003 effusive eruption. Very high radon emissions (up to ~ 470,000 Bq/m3 for 222Rn, and ~ 780,000 Bq/m3 for 220Rn, respectively) were also detected by the automatic measurements at the summit station during June 20-early July 2007: i.e., just prior to the resuming of the Strombolian activity at summit craters. These data give us the opportunity to estimate the relative depths of the summit fractures during fracturing (being constrained between 200 and 310 m). This is in good agreement with the hypocentral depths of the so called

  18. Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

    2016-01-01

    In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)—weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will

  19. Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

    PubMed

    Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

    2016-01-01

    In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide

  20. Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH - an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodnebrog, Ø.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Koffi, B.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Pyle, J. A.; Stordal, F.; Szopa, S.; Tang, Q.; van Velthoven, P.; Williams, J. E.; Ødemark, K.

    2011-11-01

    The impact of future emissions from aviation and shipping on the atmospheric chemical composition has been estimated using an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models. This study considers an optimistic emission scenario (B1) taking into account e.g. rapid introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies, and a mitigation option for the aircraft sector (B1 ACARE), assuming further technological improvements. Results from sensitivity simulations, where emissions from each of the transport sectors were reduced by 5%, show that emissions from both aircraft and shipping will have a larger impact on atmospheric ozone and OH in near future (2025; B1) and for longer time horizons (2050; B1) compared to recent time (2000). However, the ozone and OH impact from aircraft can be reduced substantially in 2050 if the technological improvements considered in the B1 ACARE will be achieved. Shipping emissions have the largest impact in the marine boundary layer and their ozone contribution may exceed 4 ppbv (when scaling the response of the 5% emission perturbation to 100% by applying a factor 20) over the North Atlantic Ocean in the future (2050; B1) during northern summer (July). In the zonal mean, ship-induced ozone relative to the background levels may exceed 12% near the surface. Corresponding numbers for OH are 6.0 × 105 molecules cm-3 and 30%, respectively. This large impact on OH from shipping leads to a relative methane lifetime reduction of 3.92 (±0.48) on the global average in 2050 B1 (ensemble mean CH4 lifetime is 8.0 (±1.0) yr), compared to 3.68 (±0.47)% in 2000. Aircraft emissions have about 4 times higher ozone enhancement efficiency (ozone molecules enhanced relative to NOx molecules emitted) than shipping emissions, and the maximum impact is found in the UTLS region. Zonal mean aircraft-induced ozone could reach up to 5 ppbv at northern mid- and high latitudes during future summer (July 2050; B1), while the relative impact peaks during

  1. O{sub 3} and stratospheric H{sub 2}O radiative forcing resulting from a supersonic jet transport emission scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, A.S.; Kinnison, D.E.; Penner, J.E.; Grant, K.E.; Tamaresis, J.; Connell, P.S.

    1996-01-01

    The tropospheric radiative forcing has been calculated for ozone and water vapor perturbations caused by a realistic High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft emission scenario. Atmospheric profiles of water vapor and ozone were obtained using the LLNL 2-D chemical-radiative-transport model (CRT) of the global troposphere and stratosphere. IR radiative forcing calculations were made with the LLNL correlated k-distribution radiative transfer model. UV-Visible-Near IR radiative forcing calculations were made with the LLNL two stream solar radiation model. For the case of water vapor the IR and Near IR radiative forcing was determined at five different latitudes and then averaged using an appropriate latitudinal average to obtain the global average value. Global average values of radiative forcing were approximately 1.2--2.6 10{sup {minus}3} W/m{sup 2}, depending on the background atmospheric water vapor profile. This result is consistent with prior published values for a similar aircraft scenario and supports the conclusion that the water vapor climate forcing effect is very small. The radiative forcing in the IR and UV-Visible spectral ranges, due to the ozone perturbation, was calculated for the globally averaged atmosphere. Global average values of the radiative forcing were 0.034 W/m{sup 2} for the UV-Visible spectral range and 0.006 W/m{sup 2} for the IR spectral range (0.04 W/m{sup 2} total). This result is also consistent with the range of published values obtained for a similar HSCT scenario. As was the case for water vapor, the ozone forcing is too small to be of major consequence.

  2. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD-WRF Model.

    PubMed

    Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

    2017-01-01

    The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth's surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD-WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario.

  3. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD–WRF Model

    PubMed Central

    Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

    2017-01-01

    The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth’s surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)–Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD–WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario. PMID:28141866

  4. Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH - an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodnebrog, Ø.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Koffi, B.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Pyle, J. A.; Stordal, F.; Szopa, S.; Tang, Q.; van Velthoven, P.; Williams, J. E.; Ødemark, K.

    2011-06-01

    The impact of future emissions from aviation and shipping on the atmospheric chemical composition has been estimated using an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models. This study considers an optimistic emission scenario (B1) taking into account e.g. rapid introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies, and a mitigation option for the aircraft sector (B1 ACARE), assuming further technological improvements. Results from sensitivity simulations, where emissions from each of the transport sectors were reduced by 5 %, show that emissions from both aircraft and shipping will have a larger impact on atmospheric ozone and OH in near future (2025; B1) and for longer time horizons (2050; B1) compared to recent time (2000). However, the ozone and OH impact from aircraft can be reduced substantially in 2050 if the technological improvements considered in the B1 ACARE will be achieved. Shipping emissions have the largest impact in the marine boundary layer and their ozone contribution may exceed 4 ppb (scaled to 100 %) over the North Atlantic Ocean in the future (2050; B1) during northern summer (July). In the zonal mean, ship-induced ozone relative to the background levels may exceed 12 % near the surface. Corresponding numbers for OH are 6.0 × 105 molecules cm-3 and 30 %, respectively. This large impact on OH from shipping leads to a relative methane lifetime reduction of 3.92(±0.48) % on the global average in 2050 B1 (ensemble mean CH4 lifetime is 8.0(±1.0) yr), compared to 3.68(±0.47) % in 2000. Aircraft emissions have about 4 times higher ozone enhancement efficiency (ozone molecules enhanced relative to NOx molecules emitted) than shipping emissions, and the maximum impact is found in the UTLS region. Zonal mean aircraft-induced ozone could reach up to 5 ppb at northern mid- and high latitudes during future summer (July 2050; B1), while the relative impact peaks during northern winter (January) with a contribution of 4.2 %. Although the

  5. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  6. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #1: Defence Scenario

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-01

    ministre de la Défense nationale, 2011 Abstract With the change in northern climate over the past decade, current policy and media discussions have...scenarios, a scenario development methodology, and a Capability Inventory Tool (CIT) to identify and characterize legislation and policy on the Arctic, with...for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives. Résumé Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat nordique au cours des

  7. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  8. Cocoa Intensification Scenarios and Their Predicted Impact on CO2 Emissions, Biodiversity Conservation, and Rural Livelihoods in the Guinea Rain Forest of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gockowski, Jim; Sonwa, Denis

    2011-08-01

    The Guinean rain forest (GRF) of West Africa, identified over 20 years ago as a global biodiversity hotspot, had reduced to 113,000 km2 at the start of the new millennium which was 18% of its original area. The principal driver of this environmental change has been the expansion of extensive smallholder agriculture. From 1988 to 2007, the area harvested in the GRF by smallholders of cocoa, cassava, and oil palm increased by 68,000 km2. Field results suggest a high potential for significantly increasing crop yields through increased application of seed-fertilizer technologies. Analyzing land-use change scenarios, it was estimated that had intensified cocoa technology, already developed in the 1960s, been pursued in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon that over 21,000 km2 of deforestation and forest degradation could have been avoided along with the emission of nearly 1.4 billion t of CO2. Addressing the low productivity of agriculture in the GRF should be one of the principal objectives of REDD climate mitigation programs.

  9. Cocoa intensification scenarios and their predicted impact on CO₂ emissions, biodiversity conservation, and rural livelihoods in the Guinea rain forest of West Africa.

    PubMed

    Gockowski, Jim; Sonwa, Denis

    2011-08-01

    The Guinean rain forest (GRF) of West Africa, identified over 20 years ago as a global biodiversity hotspot, had reduced to 113,000 km² at the start of the new millennium which was 18% of its original area. The principal driver of this environmental change has been the expansion of extensive smallholder agriculture. From 1988 to 2007, the area harvested in the GRF by smallholders of cocoa, cassava, and oil palm increased by 68,000 km². Field results suggest a high potential for significantly increasing crop yields through increased application of seed-fertilizer technologies. Analyzing land-use change scenarios, it was estimated that had intensified cocoa technology, already developed in the 1960s, been pursued in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon that over 21,000 km² of deforestation and forest degradation could have been avoided along with the emission of nearly 1.4 billion t of CO₂. Addressing the low productivity of agriculture in the GRF should be one of the principal objectives of REDD climate mitigation programs.

  10. Scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  11. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 μg m-3 under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 μg m-3 under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m-2 and 2.0 W m-2 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 °C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m-2 in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  12. Constraints on the synchrotron self-Compton mechanism of TeV gamma ray emission from the Milagro TeV source MGRO J2019+37 within the pulsar wind nebula scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saha, Lab; Bhattacharjee, Pijushpani

    2015-03-01

    Origin of the TeV gamma ray emission from MGRO J2019+37 discovered by the Milagro experiment is investigated within the pulsar wind nebula (PWN) scenario using multiwavelength information on sources suggested to be associated with this object. We find that the synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) mechanism of origin of the observed TeV gamma rays within the PWN scenario is severely constrained by the upper limit on the radio flux from the region around MGRO J2019+37 given by the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) as well as by the x-ray flux upper limit from SWIFT/XRT. Specifically, for the SSC mechanism to explain the observed TeV flux from MGRO J2019+37 without violating the GMRT and/or Swift/XRT flux upper limits in the radio and x-ray regions, respectively, the emission region must be extremely compact with the characteristic size of the emission region restricted to ≲ O (10-4 pc) for an assumed distance of ˜ few kpc to the source. This is at least four orders of magnitude less than the characteristic size of the emission region typically invoked in explaining the TeV emission through the SSC mechanism within the PWN scenario. On the other hand, inverse Compton (IC) scattering of the nebular high energy electrons on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons can, for reasonable ranges of values of various parameters, explain the observed TeV flux without violating the GMRT and/or SWIFT/XRT flux bounds.

  13. Winds of change: How will windstorms and forest harvesting affect C cycling in northern MN under different climate scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucash, M. S.; Scheller, R. M.; Gustafson, E.; Sturtevant, B.

    2013-12-01

    Forest managers struggle to manage timber resources while integrating the complex interactions that exist among disturbances with the novel conditions produced by a changing climate. To help forest managers better integrate climate change and disturbance projections into their forest management plans, we are using a forest landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II, Century extension) to project carbon sequestration in northern Minnesota under multiple climate change, management and disturbance scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using empirical estimates of aboveground productivity and net ecosystem exchange. Our simulations suggest that windstorms will decrease tree biomass and soil organic matter and will increase dead C, resulting in an overall decrease in total C and C sink strength under the GFDL A1FI climate scenario. However the direct effects of climate change on C via altered production and heterotrophic respiration were larger than the impacts of wind. In contrast, forest harvesting will remain the dominant determinant of C dynamics under A1FI, even under management scenarios of more selective logging and longer rotation periods. Recovery from historic (late 1800s and early 1900s) disturbance - clearcut logging and wildfire - remain an important, though declining, driver of long-term C dynamics. Our research results will inform regional planning efforts and help forest managers evaluate the relative importance of disturbances (e.g. wind) and forest harvesting under a changing climate.

  14. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories.

  15. Hydrogen Pathways: Updated Cost, Well-to-Wheels Energy Use, and Emissions for the Current Technology Status of Ten Hydrogen Production, Delivery, and Distribution Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsden, T.; Ruth, M.; Diakov, V.; Laffen, M.; Timbario, T. A.

    2013-03-01

    This report describes a life-cycle assessment conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of 10 hydrogen production, delivery, dispensing, and use pathways that were evaluated for cost, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This evaluation updates and expands on a previous assessment of seven pathways conducted in 2009. This study summarizes key results, parameters, and sensitivities to those parameters for the 10 hydrogen pathways, reporting on the levelized cost of hydrogen in 2007 U.S. dollars as well as life-cycle well-to-wheels energy use and GHG emissions associated with the pathways.

  16. OPTICAL SPECTROSCOPY OF SDSS J004054.65-0915268: THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE CLASSIFICATION. A z ∼ 5 BL LACERTAE, A BLUE FSRQ, OR A WEAK EMISSION LINE QUASAR

    SciTech Connect

    Landoni, M.; Zanutta, A.; Bianco, A.; Tavecchio, F.; Bonnoli, G.; Ghisellini, G.

    2016-02-15

    The haunt of high-redshift BL Lacerate objects is day by day more compelling to firmly understand their intrinsic nature and evolution. SDSS J004054.65-0915268 is, at the moment, one of the most distant BL Lac candidates, at z ∼ 5. We present a new optical-near-IR spectrum obtained with ALFOSC-NOT with a new, custom designed dispersive grating aimed to detect broad emission lines that could disprove this classification. In the obtained spectra, we do not detect any emission features and we provide an upper limit to the luminosity of the C iv broad emission line. Therefore, the nature of the object is then discussed, building the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) and fitting it with three different models. Our fits, based on SED modeling with different possible scenarios, cannot rule out the possibility that this source is indeed a BL Lac object, though the absence of optical variability and the lack of strong radio flux seem to suggest that the observed optical emission originates from a thermalized accretion disk.

  17. Life-Cycle Energy and GHG Emissions for New and Recovered Softwood Framing Lumber and Hardwood Flooring Considering End-of-Life Scenarios

    Treesearch

    Richard D. Bergman; Robert H. Falk; Hongmei Gu; Thomas R. Napier; Jamie Meil

    2013-01-01

    Within the green building fields is a growing movement to recover and reuse building materials in lieu of demolition and land fill disposal. However, they lack life-cycle data to help quantify environmental impacts. This study quantifies the primary energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions released from the production of wood recovered from an old house and from new...

  18. Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model: California's Carbon Challenge Phase II, Volume II

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel; Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to the present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and sequestration was

  19. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  20. Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

    Treesearch

    A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

    2011-01-01

    Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

  1. Impact on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from a realistic land-use change scenario via changes in biogenic emissions.

    PubMed

    Scott, C E; Monks, S A; Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Forster, P M; Rap, A; Carslaw, K S; Chipperfield, M P; Reddington, C L S; Wilson, C

    2017-08-24

    More than one quarter of natural forests have been cleared by humans to make way for other land-uses, with changes to forest cover projected to continue. The climate impact of land-use change (LUC) is dependent upon the relative strength of several biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. In addition to affecting the surface albedo and exchanging carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), altering the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosol, ozone (O3) and methane (CH4). Once emitted, BVOCs are rapidly oxidised by O3, and the hydroxyl (OH) and nitrate (NO3) radicals. These oxidation reactions yield secondary organic products which are implicated in the formation and growth of aerosol particles and are estimated to have a negative radiative effect on the climate (i.e. a cooling). These reactions also deplete OH, increasing the atmospheric lifetime of CH4, and directly affect concentrations of O3; the latter two being greenhouse gases which impose a positive radiative effect (i.e. a warming) on the climate. Our previous work assessing idealised deforestation scenarios found a positive radiative effect due to changes in SLCFs; however, since the radiative effects associated with changes to SLCFs result from a combination of non-linear processes it may not be appropriate to scale radiative effects from complete deforestation scenarios according to the deforestation extent. Here we combine a land-surface model, a chemical transport model, a global aerosol model, and a radiative transfer model to assess the net radiative effect of changes in SLCFs due to historical LUC between the years 1850 and 2000.

  2. Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Seungwoo; Graham, Wendy D.; Hwang, Syewoon; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2016-08-01

    Projecting water deficit under various possible future climate scenarios depends on the choice of general circulation model (GCM), reference evapotranspiration (ET0) estimation method, and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectory. The relative contribution of each of these factors must be evaluated in order to choose an appropriate ensemble of future scenarios for water resources planning. In this study variance-based global sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo filtering were used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of projected changes in precipitation (P), ET0, and water deficit (defined here as P-ET0) to choice of GCM, ET0 estimation method, and RCP trajectory over the continental United States (US) for two distinct future periods: 2030-2060 (future period 1) and 2070-2100 (future period 2). A total of 9 GCMs, 10 ET0 methods, and 3 RCP trajectories were used to quantify the range of future projections and estimate the relative sensitivity of future projections to each of these factors. In general, for all regions of the continental US, changes in future precipitation are most sensitive to the choice of GCM, while changes in future ET0 are most sensitive to the choice of ET0 estimation method. For changes in future water deficit, the choice of GCM is the most influential factor in the cool season (December-March), and the choice of ET0 estimation method is most important in the warm season (May-October) for all regions except the Southeast US, where GCMs and ET0 have approximately equal influence throughout most of the year. Although the choice of RCP trajectory is generally less important than the choice of GCM or ET0 method, the impact of RCP trajectory increases in future period 2 over future period 1 for all factors. Monte Carlo filtering results indicate that particular GCMs and ET0 methods drive the projection of wetter or drier future conditions much more than RCP trajectory; however, the set of GCMs and ET0 methods that produce wetter or

  3. Disentangling Hadronic and Leptonic Cascade Scenarios from the Very-High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission of Distant Hard-Spectrum Blazars

    DOE PAGES

    Takami, Hajime; Murase, Kohta; Dermer, Charles D.

    2013-06-26

    We show that recent data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope have revealed about a dozen distant hard-spectrum blazars that have very-high-energy (VHE; ≳ 100 eV) photons associated with them, but most of them have not yet been detected by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. Most of these high-energy gamma-ray spectra, like those of other extreme high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects, can be well explained either by gamma rays emitted at the source or by cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, as we show specifically for KUV 00311–1938. We consider the prospects for detection of the VHE sources by the plannedmore » Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) and show how it can distinguish the two scenarios by measuring the integrated flux above ~500 GeV (depending on source redshift) for several luminous sources with z ≲ 1 in the sample. Strong evidence for the origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays could be obtained from VHE observations with CTA. Depending on redshift, if the often quoted redshift of KUV 00311–1938 (z = 0.61) is believed, then preliminary H.E.S.S. data favor cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. Lastly, accurate redshift measurements of hard-spectrum blazars are essential for this study.« less

  4. DISENTANGLING HADRONIC AND LEPTONIC CASCADE SCENARIOS FROM THE VERY-HIGH-ENERGY GAMMA-RAY EMISSION OF DISTANT HARD-SPECTRUM BLAZARS

    SciTech Connect

    Takami, Hajime; Murase, Kohta; Dermer, Charles D. E-mail: murase@ias.edu

    2013-07-10

    Recent data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope have revealed about a dozen distant hard-spectrum blazars that have very-high-energy (VHE; {approx}> 100 GeV) photons associated with them, but most of them have not yet been detected by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. Most of these high-energy gamma-ray spectra, like those of other extreme high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects, can be well explained either by gamma rays emitted at the source or by cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, as we show specifically for KUV 00311-1938. We consider the prospects for detection of the VHE sources by the planned Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) and show how it can distinguish the two scenarios by measuring the integrated flux above {approx}500 GeV (depending on source redshift) for several luminous sources with z {approx}< 1 in the sample. Strong evidence for the origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays could be obtained from VHE observations with CTA. Depending on redshift, if the often quoted redshift of KUV 00311-1938 (z = 0.61) is believed, then preliminary H.E.S.S. data favor cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. Accurate redshift measurements of hard-spectrum blazars are essential for this study.

  5. Disentangling Hadronic and Leptonic Cascade Scenarios from the Very-High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission of Distant Hard-Spectrum Blazars

    SciTech Connect

    Takami, Hajime; Murase, Kohta; Dermer, Charles D.

    2013-06-26

    We show that recent data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope have revealed about a dozen distant hard-spectrum blazars that have very-high-energy (VHE; ≳ 100 eV) photons associated with them, but most of them have not yet been detected by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. Most of these high-energy gamma-ray spectra, like those of other extreme high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects, can be well explained either by gamma rays emitted at the source or by cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, as we show specifically for KUV 00311–1938. We consider the prospects for detection of the VHE sources by the planned Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) and show how it can distinguish the two scenarios by measuring the integrated flux above ~500 GeV (depending on source redshift) for several luminous sources with z ≲ 1 in the sample. Strong evidence for the origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays could be obtained from VHE observations with CTA. Depending on redshift, if the often quoted redshift of KUV 00311–1938 (z = 0.61) is believed, then preliminary H.E.S.S. data favor cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. Lastly, accurate redshift measurements of hard-spectrum blazars are essential for this study.

  6. Climate Change Projections for Sri Lanka for the mid-twentieth Century from CMIP5 Simulations under a High Emissions Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubair, L.; Agalawatte, P.

    2014-12-01

    Under the Agricultural Model Inter-Comparison program (AgMIP), climate change projections for Sri Lanka were undertaken from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) archives for five locations covering Sri Lanka. These datasets were first quality checked after removing questionable data entries. The gaps in data were filled using AgMERRA data set for the specific location developed by Alex Ruane and Sonali McDermid at NASA- GISS after applying the necessary bias corrections. Future climate projections for 2040- 2070 are based on projections for high Carbon Dioxide emissions (RCP8.5). Analysis was undertaken on the outputs of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs). Observed climate datasets (for the period 1980- 2010) for each location were used to generate downscaled future predictions. Future projections for maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall were generated while holding solar radiation constant and changing the CO2 value up to 499 ppm. Results for 5 GCMs that simulate the monsoon region best were then selected for further analysis. These are CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-MR. All 20 GCM outputs predicted that both minimum and maximum temperature shall rise by around 2 ⁰C throughout the year. This result is consistent across all 5 locations and the uncertainty associated with this prediction was observed to be low compared to that of rainfall. In the case of the rainfall, majority (80- 95%) of GCMs predicted an increment in the annual rainfall by around 0.5 mm/day. Rainfall during September- October- November was predicted to have a high increment (around 2- 7 mm/day) and during February- March a decrement of around 1- 2 mm/day was predicted. The uncertainty of this prediction based on outputs of all 20 GCMs were observed to be high. These results are consistent with the Fourth Assessment Report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change.

  7. Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States

    Treesearch

    Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews

    2008-01-01

    We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern United States. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential future distributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) and...

  8. Scenario development in China's electricity sector

    SciTech Connect

    Steenhof, P.A.; Fulton, W.

    2007-07-15

    The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.

  9. Assessing oral bioaccessibility of trace elements in soils under worst-case scenarios by automated in-line dynamic extraction as a front end to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Rosende, María; Magalhães, Luis M; Segundo, Marcela A; Miró, Manuel

    2014-09-09

    A novel biomimetic extraction procedure that allows for the in-line handing of ≥400 mg solid substrates is herein proposed for automatic ascertainment of trace element (TE) bioaccessibility in soils under worst-case conditions as per recommendations of ISO norms. A unified bioaccessibility/BARGE method (UBM)-like physiological-based extraction test is evaluated for the first time in a dynamic format for accurate assessment of in-vitro bioaccessibility of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in forest and residential-garden soils by on-line coupling of a hybrid flow set-up to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. Three biologically relevant operational extraction modes mimicking: (i) gastric juice extraction alone; (ii) saliva and gastric juice composite in unidirectional flow extraction format and (iii) saliva and gastric juice composite in a recirculation mode were thoroughly investigated. The extraction profiles of the three configurations using digestive fluids were proven to fit a first order reaction kinetic model for estimating the maximum TE bioaccessibility, that is, the actual worst-case scenario in human risk assessment protocols. A full factorial design, in which the sample amount (400-800 mg), the extractant flow rate (0.5-1.5 mL min(-1)) and the extraction temperature (27-37°C) were selected as variables for the multivariate optimization studies in order to obtain the maximum TE extractability. Two soils of varied physicochemical properties were analysed and no significant differences were found at the 0.05 significance level between the summation of leached concentrations of TE in gastric juice plus the residual fraction and the total concentration of the overall assayed metals determined by microwave digestion. These results showed the reliability and lack of bias (trueness) of the automatic biomimetic extraction approach using digestive juices.

  10. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-05-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissions of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due to lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a simpler downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario, which results in higher emissions from megacities. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities, with mixing ratios of background ozone projected to play an increasing role in megacity air quality throughout the 21st century. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results; future generations of emissions scenarios should include spatially explicit representations or urban development suitable for air quality studies using global chemical transport models.

  11. Projection of Changes in Regional Climate and Air Quality in the Great Lakes Basin between 2000 and 2050 for the RCP8.5 Emissions Scenario using the GEM-AQ Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lupu, A.; Semeniuk, K.; McConnell, J. C.; Kaminski, J. W.; Toyota, K.; Neary, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality (GEM-AQ) model was run in global and limited area model (LAM) modes for the baseline year 2000 and one future year, 2050, on three different horizontal grids of increasing resolution from global (1.5°) to North American (LAM, 0.45°) to Ontario regional scale (LAM, 0.15°). For the future simulation we used the high greenhouse emissions scenario RCP8.5. Boundary conditions for the LAM runs were taken from the coarser resolution runs. All simulations had 54 vertical sigma-pressure hybrid levels from the ground to the stratopause (˜50 km), which should give a good representation of ozone injection to the troposphere from the stratosphere. The model uses the interactive land surface scheme ISBA. Sea surface and lake temperatures are prescribed, but ice cover is partially interactive based on prescribed fields. A lake model, FLAKE, was coupled to GEM-AQ in order to capture the impacts of the Great Lakes on the meteorology when the model is run at high resolution. For the Ontario regional simulation the interactive lake model allowed for self-consistent water temperatures and moisture fluxes. The simulation for the year 2000 shows that the model is able to reproduce the observed monthly surface temperatures across the US. The monthly surface ozone is reproduced at the level of detail of most other air quality models with year 2000 weather as opposed to a free run forced by SSTs. Our year 2050 simulation shows that ozone levels during the summer throughout most of Ontario and Canada will increase. Regions south of the latitude of Lake Superior will generally see decreased levels of summer (JJA) ozone, except for around large urban areas such as Toronto, Chicago and Montreal. However, NOx levels will decrease during the summer, reflecting decreased emissions. Ozone levels in the US will generally improve. Other indices rather than simple averages yield a different perspective. If the MDA8 ozone metric and NO2 one-hour 98th

  12. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  13. High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

  14. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    PubMed

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  15. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  16. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  17. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-04-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissios of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a different downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities. Air quality trends in the megacities of the developing world are projected to be similar to observed trends in developed world megacities over the last few decades. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results. Future work should concentrate on the creation of spatially explicit scenarios of urban development for use in global chemical transport models.

  18. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-01-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissios of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP (''Representative Concentration Pathway'') emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18 and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a different downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities. Air quality trends in the megacities of the developing world are projected to be similar to observed trends in developed world megacities over the last few decades. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results. Future work should concentrate on the creation of spatially explicit scenarios of urban development for use in global chemical transport models.

  19. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  20. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    DOE PAGES

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; ...

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

  1. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person.

  2. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  3. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  4. Characterization of maritime scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Low, Tom B.; Hudak, D. R.

    1992-09-01

    Meteorological modules were developed to describe characteristic maritime scenarios in various oceanic areas for DREV complimentarity studies of shipboard defense. The best means of depicting the maritime atmospheric environment was found to be on the basis of air mass analysis. A methodology was developed whereby, through a mixture of man-machine objective analysis of upper air radiosonde measurements at the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels, typical airmasses could be identified. Characteristic scenarios were then defined based on physical considerations of air mass theory. Utilizing an extensive 10-year set of worldwide radiosonde, ozondesonde, and surface observations collected from a combination of land-based stations, oceanographic buoys, and weather ships, frequency and correlation statistics of various global and derived meteorological and oceanographic parameters were established for the CANLANT, NORLANT, WESTLANT, EASTLANT, IBERLANT, MARPAC regions, the ARCTIC OCEAN to 85 degree(s)N, the BALTIC SEA, MEDITERRANEAN SEA, PERSIAN GULF, RED SEA, GULF OF OMAN, and the INDIAN OCEAN. These descriptions included atmospheric profiles of pressure, temperature, dewpoint and relative humidity, wind speeds and direction, refractivity index, and ozone concentration from the surface to approximately 20 km., as well as associated surface visibility, clouds and weather, sea state, and duct height conditions. Many of the derived parameters were found to be a strong function of the defining airmass scenarios. The spatial distribution of these scenarios was also determined.

  5. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008

  6. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  7. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  8. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  9. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  10. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  11. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  12. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  13. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  14. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  15. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  16. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

    Treesearch

    Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

    2008-01-01

    We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable...

  17. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  18. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  19. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  20. Climate scenarios for California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.

  1. Repository preclosure accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Yook, H.R.; Arbital, J.G.; Keeton, J.M.; Mosier, J.E.; Weaver, B.S.

    1984-09-01

    Waste-handling operations at a spent-fuel repository were investigated to identify operational accidents that could occur. The facility was subdivided, through systems engineering procedures, into individual operations that involve the waste and one specific component of the waste package, in one specific area of the handling facility. From this subdivision approximately 600 potential accidents involving waste package components were identified and then discussed. Supporting descriptive data included for each accident scenario are distance of drop, speed of collision, weight of package component, and weight of equipment involved. The energy of impact associated with each potential accident is calculated to provide a basis for comparison of the relative severities of all the accidents. The results and conclusions suggest approaches to accident consequence mitigation through waste package and facility design. 35 figures, 9 tables.

  2. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  3. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  4. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  5. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

  6. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

  7. Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

    2016-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

  8. Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

    2016-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

  9. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, Jae; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  10. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  11. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  12. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  13. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  14. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  15. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  16. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  17. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  18. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  19. Lyman Alpha Galaxies and Galaxy Formation Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malhotra, Sangeeta; Rhoads, James; Dey, Arjun; Jannuzi, Buell

    2003-02-01

    The Large Area Lyman Alpha survey has successfully identified the population of young Lyα emitting galaxies predicted over 30 years ago. High equivalent widths of Lyα line in these sources suggest that they are a very young (age < 10^7 years), metal poor, population of stars at redshifts 4.5, 5.7 and 6.6, making them very interesting objects to study in the context of galaxy formation scenarios. We have begun to do exactly this using the correlation function of LALA galaxies, with fairly puzzling results. Before this leads to more complications in theoretical galaxy formation scenarios, we would like to put the observational results on a firm footing. In order to do that we ask for one night of Keck/Deimos time for spectroscopic confirmation of 50 secure LALA sources at z=4.5, and a similar number of fainter sources, in order to (1) characterize the completeness of this survey, and (2) weed out foreground emission line galaxies which affect the small scale correlation function. The excellent match between wide-field capabilities of DEIMOS and the LALA survey will allow the most complete confirmation and characterization of the high redshift Lyα population yet in terms of photometric sample reliability, while our planned spectra of foreground emission line galaxies will lead to a characterization of emission line selected star-forming galaxies at 0.25 < z < 1.5. We will use our spectroscopic sample to obtain a clean measurement of the small scale correlations among Lyα galaxies (which are clearly seen in our photometric sample). This will let us understand the halo mass, occupancy number, and duty cycle of these objects, and hence better how Lyα sources fit into the bigger picture of galaxy formation.

  20. Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.; Streets, David G.

    2009-04-01

    This study examines the effects of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, and the resulting feedback to natural emissions and air quality. Speciated sector- and region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed to produce gas and particle emission inventories that followed Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 emission trajectories. Current and future climate model simulations were run, in which anthropogenic emission changes affected climate, which fed back to natural emissions from lightning (NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, H2O2, HO2, CO), soils (dust, bacteria, NO, N2O, H2, CH4, H2S, DMS, OCS, CS2), the ocean (bacteria, sea spray, DMS, N2O, H2, CH4), vegetation (pollen, spores, isoprene, monoterpenes, methanol, other VOCs), and photosynthesis/respiration. New methods were derived to calculate lightning flash rates as a function of size-resolved collisions and other physical principles and pollen, spore, and bacteria emissions. Although the B1 scenario was "cleaner" than the A1B scenario, global warming increased more in the B1 scenario because much A1B warming was masked by additional reflective aerosol particles. Thus neither scenario is entirely beneficial from a climate and health perspective, and the best control measure is to reduce warming gases and warming/cooling particles together. Lightning emissions declined by ˜3% in the B1 scenario and ˜12% in the A1B scenario as the number of ice crystals, thus charge-separating bounceoffs, decreased. Net primary production increased by ˜2% in both scenarios. Emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes increased by ˜1% in the A1B scenario and 4-5% in the B1 scenario. Near-surface ozone increased by ˜14% in the A1B scenario and ˜4% in the B1 scenario, reducing ambient isoprene in the latter case. Gases from soils increased in both scenarios due to higher temperatures. Near-surface PM2.5 mass increased by ˜2% in the A1B scenario and decreased by ˜2% in the B1 scenario. The resulting 1.4% higher

  1. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  2. High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

  3. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. [Subjective causal scenarios for global environmental change].

    PubMed

    Böhm, G; Mader, S

    1998-01-01

    Two studies are presented that investigate the assumptions that risk evaluation is based on subjective causal scenarios, and that the cognitive representation of global environmental risks is structured according to five causal levels: human attitudes, human activities, emissions or pollutions, environmental changes, and negative consequences. In study 1, 30 subjects listed in free-response format causes, consequences, and remedial measures for 14 environmental risks. Differences between predictive and diagnostic inferences were found: whereas subjects tend to assign immediate rather than mediated causes, they predominantly assign negative consequences for humans, irrespective of the length of the causal chain that leads to these consequences. In study 2, 41 subjects judged the overall similarity between 25 environmental risks. A multidimensional scaling analysis of these similarity judgments replicates the theoretically assumed five causal levels. Results of both studies support the assumptions that risk evaluation is based on implicit causal hypotheses and that the proposed five-level structure adequately describes the cognitive representation of environmental risks.

  5. PLASMIX management: LCA of six possible scenarios.

    PubMed

    Cossu, R; Garbo, F; Girotto, F; Simion, F; Pivato, A

    2017-08-09

    Only a small percentage of the separately collected plastic is recycled. The mechanical selection process of source segregated plastic materials generates considerable amounts of residues that are commonly named as Plasmix. By means of a life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling, the environmental performances of the main Plasmix management options (thermal treatment, energy recovery, and landfilling) were compared. Six treatment scenarios, with different pre-treatment alternatives, were evaluated. Landfilling after waste washing and Plasmix substitution of coke in a blast furnace represent the most favorable options, since the performances of thermal treatment and energy recovery are worsened by specific emissions of a variety of toxic compounds and heavy metals within plastic materials as additives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  7. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  8. R modes and neutron star recycling scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chugunov, A. I.; Gusakov, M. E.; Kantor, E. M.

    2017-06-01

    To put new constraints on the r-mode instability window, we analyse the formation of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) within the recycling scenario, making use of three sets of observations: (a) X-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) in low-mass X-ray binaries; (b) timing of MSPs and (c) X-ray and UV observations of MSPs. As shown in previous works, r-mode dissipation by shear viscosity is not sufficient to explain observational set (a), and enhanced r-mode dissipation at the redshifted internal temperatures T ∞ ˜ 108 K is required to stabilize the observed NSs. Here, we argue that models with enhanced bulk viscosity can hardly lead to a self-consistent explanation of observational set (a) due to strong neutrino emission, which is typical for these models (unrealistically powerful energy source is required to keep NSs at the observed temperatures.). We also demonstrate that the observational set (b), combined with the theory of internal heating and NS cooling, provides evidence of enhanced r-mode dissipation at low temperatures, T ∞ ˜ 2 × 107 K. Observational set (c) allows us to set an upper limit on the internal temperatures of MSPs, T ∞ < 2 × 107 K (assuming a canonical NS with the accreted crust). Recycling scenario can produce MSPs at these temperatures only if r-mode instability is suppressed in the whole MSP spin frequency range (ν ≲ 750 Hz) at temperatures 2 × 107 ≲ T ∞ ≲ 3 × 107 K, providing thus a new constraint on the r-mode instability window. These observational constraints are analysed in more details in application to the resonance uplift scenario of Gusakov et al.

  9. When could global warming reach 4°C?

    PubMed

    Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

    2011-01-13

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon

  10. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  11. Haunted Quantum Entanglement: Two Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Douglas

    2010-04-01

    Two haunted quantum entanglement scenarios are proposed that are very close to the haunted measurement scenario in that: 1) the entity that is developing as a which-way marker is effectively restored to its state prior to its being fixed as a w-w marker, and 2) the entity for which the developing w-w marker provides information is restored to its state before it interacted with the entity which subsequent to the interaction begins developing as a w-w marker. In the hqe scenarios, the loss of developing w-w information through 1 relies on the loss of a developing entanglement. In scenario 1, the photon initially emitted in one of two micromaser cavities and developing into a w-w marker is effectively lost through the injection of classical microwave radiation into both of the microwave cavities after the atom initially emits the photon into one of the micromaser cavities, exits the cavity system, and before this atom reaches the 2 slit screen. The atom is restored in both of the two new scenarios to its original state before it emitted a photon by an rf coil situated at the exit of the micromaser cavity system. In scenario 2, the cavity system and everything from the atom source forward to the cavity system is enclosed in an evacuated box. After the atom that emits the photon exits the cavity system and before it reaches the 2 slit screen, the cavity system opens (and the photon escapes in the evacuated box) and then the box is opened and the photon escapes into the environment.

  12. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

  13. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  14. [Femicides: concepts, types and scenarios].

    PubMed

    Meneghel, Stela Nazareth; Portella, Ana Paula

    2017-09-01

    This text is a theoretical essay that discusses the concepts, types and scenarios of feminicides, and presents some proposals for the prevention of these premature, unjust and avoidable deaths. The text revisits the original concept of femicide proposed by Diana Russell and Jane Caputti and shows new and old scenarios where these crimes occur. It points to patriarchy, understood as being a hierarchical system of power between men and women, as one of the main determinants of these deaths. It ends by presenting actions and proposals to prevent and combat these gender crimes.

  15. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S.; Brandenberger, Robert; Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L.

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  16. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  17. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  18. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  19. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  20. Long term implications of 21st century choices: Millenial extensions of RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strassmann, K. M.; Plattner, G.; Joos, F.; Emori, S.

    2009-12-01

    Currently available comprehensive multigas scenarios for future climate projections span the 21st century. A longer view is necessary to analyze long term responses of the climate system involving processes on long time scales, and to explore the implications of the transition from 21st century mitigation to stabilization on the multicentennial timescale. We extend 21st century scenarios to a millenial scale in a simple, idealized way, similar to the extension rules suggested by Van Vuuren et al. (2009, RCP Extension White Paper). We use scenarios of the radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols, and corresponding emissions and land use, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The RCP scenario set includes baseline (RCP8.5, RCP6) and mitigation scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP3), which together span an RF range representative of the literature. We use precursors of the RCP scenarios, developed under the EMF-21 program for multigas mitigation scenarios, and complement them with additional baseline and mitigation scenarios from EMF-21. The Bern2.5CC model coupled to a version of the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model is used to project terrestrial and ocean carbon storage, global mean surface temperature and steric sea level rise. Scenarios are extended: i. by setting all emissions to zero after 2100, ii. by keeping all emissions constant at the level reached in 2100, iii. by keeping RF constant after 2100. In line with the scenario inherent logic of the RCPs we choose constant emissions as the standard extension for RCP8.5 and RCP3, and constant RF for RCP6 and RCP4.5. For extensions defined in terms of RF, we use Bern2.5CC to solve for the implied/allowable CO2 emissions. As a metric to assess the difficulty of long term stabilization across different scenarios we use the cumulative allowed emissions inferred from constant RF extensions relative to constant emissions after 2100. For all scenarios with substantial CO2 emissions at 2100

  1. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2013-01-01

    The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. PMID:24452253

  2. Prompt high-energy neutrinos from gamma-ray bursts in photospheric and synchrotron self-Compton scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Murase, Kohta

    2008-11-15

    We investigate neutrino emission from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) under alternative scenarios for prompt emission (the photospheric and synchrotron self-Compton scenarios) rather than the classical optically thin synchrotron scenario. In the former scenario, we find that neutrinos from the pp reaction can be very important at energies < or approx. (10-100) TeV. They may be detected by IceCube/KM3Net and useful as a probe of baryon acceleration around/below the photosphere. In the latter scenario, we may expect {approx}EeV p{gamma} neutrinos produced by soft photons. Predicted spectra are different from that in the classical scenario, and neutrinos would be useful as one of the clues to the nature of GRBs (the jet composition, emission radius, magnetic field, and so on)

  3. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments.

    PubMed

    Bierwagen, Britta G; Theobald, David M; Pyke, Christopher R; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V; Morefield, Philip

    2010-12-07

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available.

  4. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments

    PubMed Central

    Bierwagen, Britta G.; Theobald, David M.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V.; Morefield, Philip

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available. PMID:21078956

  5. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The Effect of Emissions Trading And Carbon Sequestration on The Cost Of CO2 Emissions Mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Mahasenan, Natesan; Scott, Michael J.; Smith, Steven J.

    2002-08-05

    The deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CC&S) technologies is greatly affected by the marginal cost of controlling carbon emissions (also the value of carbon, when emissions permits are traded). Emissions limits that are more stringent in the near term imply higher near-term carbon values and therefore encourage the local development and deployment of CC&S technologies. In addition, trade in emissions obligations lowers the cost of meeting any regional or global emissions limit and so affects the rate of penetration of CC&S technologies. We examine the effects of the availability of sequestration opportunities and emissions trading (either within select regions or globally) on the cost of emissions mitigation and compliance with different emissions reduction targets for the IPCC SRES scenarios. For each base scenario and emissions target, we examine the issues outlined above and present quantitative estimates for the impacts of trade and the availability of sequestration opportunities in meeting emissions limitation obligations.

  7. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  8. Chlorofluorocarbon production scenarios: possible changes to stratospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Tarp, R.L.; Nold, A.; Wood, W.P.

    1981-01-01

    As one aspect of the regulatory process, the Environmental Protection Agency has derived a series of scenarios for future atmospheric emission rates of the chlorofluorocarbons CFCl/sub 3/ (also referred to as F-11), CF/sub 2/Cl/sub 2/ (F-12), CCl/sub 2/FCClF/sub 2/(F-113), CClF/sub 2/CClF/sub 2/(F-114), and CClF/sub 2/CF/sub 3/ (F-115). These scenarios are based on potential industrial production and commercial applications, and the eventual release of these chemicals into the atmosphere. In this study, the potential effect on stratospheric ozone resulting from future chlorofluorocarbon emissions as suggested by these scenarios is examined. Assessments are based upon model calculations using the one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The change in total ozone column calculated for the seven scenarios as a function of time is given. (JGB)

  9. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the

  10. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals.

    PubMed

    Dornburg, Veronika; Hermann, Barbara G; Patel, Martin K

    2008-04-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotechnology chemicals, that is, resulting in a share of white biotechnology chemicals relative to all organic chemicals of about 7 (or 5 million tonnes), 17.5 (or 26 million tonnes), or 38% (or 113 million tonnes) in 2050. We conclude that under favorable conditions, white biotechnology enables substantial savings of nonrenewable energy use (NREU) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the energy use of the future production of all organic chemicals from fossil resources. Savings of NREU reach up to 17% for starch crops and up to 31% for lignocellulosic feedstock by 2050, and saving percentages for GHG emissions are in a similar range. Parallel to these environmental benefits, economic advantages of up to 75 billion Euro production cost savings arise.

  11. Sea of Scenarios: Reducing Uncertainties in Methane Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, E.; Baum, E.

    2010-12-01

    Climate-chemistry model experiments for the 21st century have relied almost exclusively on a small set of unexamined methane (and other) emission projections from economics-based models. Over the past decade, the US Environmental Protection Agency and the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provided baseline and mitigation methane scenarios. The SRES family of projections for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) encompassed multiple economic, demographic, and environmental assumptions quantified by several models. In contrast to both of these efforts, plans for IPCC5 include additional scenario development consistent with end-of-century forcings ranging from 2.6 to 8.5W/m2. The largely black-box nature of emission projections used in climate-chemistry experiments and policy analyses has received little attention despite the substantial influence these inputs can exert. This lack of transparency makes assessing the likelihood, or even the plausibility, of projected emissions difficult, contributes to uncertainties in climate simulations, and leaves policy discussions lacking the practical understanding needed to decide on mitigation strategies. We report on analysis of multiple baseline and mitigation methane projections, including our own new ones, to assess the plausibility of underlying assumptions and data. We propose that this analysis can reduce uncertainties in climate predictions by restricting, not enlarging, the suite of methane scenarios to those likely to occur.

  12. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life.

  13. [Eukaryotes origin: a new scenario].

    PubMed

    Gonchikov, G G

    2010-01-01

    A new scenario of eukaryotes origin is proposed that explains the cytoskeleton genesis, and the genesis of cell nucleus as a "cell within cell" structure. The scenario is based on the peculiarities of spore-forming firmicutes life cycle and structure, unique for prokaryotes. It is supposed that a euryarchaeon cell was engulfed by a "bare" sporangium of an ancient polyendosporogenic and endoskeletal clostridia, bearer of microtubular endospore appendages, in the process of "abortive" forespore engulfment. In the result, a new driving force for cell transitions was formed, associated with compartmentalization of prokaryotic chromosomes. Further recombination of chromosomes induced two transitions: transformation of euryarchaeon into true cell nucleus, and transformation of microtubular endospore appendages into nucleus mitotic apparatus. In-cell reproducing organelles, such as mitochondrion and plastids, appeared later. Forthcoming full-genome studies of endoskeletal firmicutes, bearers of microtubular endospore appendages, and some eukaryotes may help to reveal the mystery of the first true nuclear cell origin.

  14. Projecting U.S. climate forcing and criteria pollutant emissions through 2050

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation highlighting a method for translating emission scenarios to model-ready emission inventories. The presentation highlights new features for spatially allocating emissions to counties and grid cells and identifies areas of potential improvement, such as updating tempor...

  15. Projecting U.S. climate forcing and criteria pollutant emissions through 2050

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentation highlighting a method for translating emission scenarios to model-ready emission inventories. The presentation highlights new features for spatially allocating emissions to counties and grid cells and identifies areas of potential improvement, such as updating tempor...

  16. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  17. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  18. Anthropogenic mercury emission inventory with emission factors and total emission in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jeong-Hun; Park, Jung-Min; Lee, Sang-Bo; Pudasainee, Deepak; Seo, Yong-Chil

    2010-07-01

    Mercury emissions concentrations, emission factors, and the total national emission from major anthropogenic sources in Korea for the year 2007 were estimated. Uncontrolled and controlled mercury emission factors and the total emission from each source types are presented. The annual national mercury emission from major anthropogenic sources for the year 2007, on average was 12.8 ton which ranged from 6.5 to 20.2 ton. Averaged emissions of elemental, oxidized, and particulate mercury were estimated at 8.25 ton, 3.69 ton, and 0.87 ton, respectively. Due to the removal of a major portion of particulate and oxidized mercury species, elemental mercury was dominant in stack emission. About 54.8% of mercury emission was contributed by industrial sources, 45.0% by stationary combustion sources and 0.02% by mobile sources. Thermal power plants, oil refineries, cement kilns and incinerators (municipal, industrial, medical, sewage sludge) were the major mercury emitters, contributing about 26%, 25%, 21% and 20%, respectively to the total mercury emission. Other sources (crematory, pulp and paper manufacturing, nonferrous metals manufacturing, glass manufacturing) contributed about 8% of the total emission. Priority should be given in controlling mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants, oil refineries, cement kilns and waste incinerators. More measurements including natural and re-emission sources are to be carried out in the future in order to have a clear scenario of mercury emission from the country and to apply effective control measures.

  19. Assessment of riverine load of contaminants to European seas under policy implementation scenarios: an example with 3 pilot substances.

    PubMed

    Marinov, Dimitar; Pistocchi, Alberto; Trombetti, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    An evaluation of conventional emission scenarios is carried out targeting a possible impact of European Union (EU) policies on riverine loads to the European seas for 3 pilot pollutants: lindane, trifluralin, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The policy scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical-specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures including business as usual (BAU), current trend (CT), partial implementation (PI), or complete ban (PI ban) of emissions. The scenario analyses show that the model-estimated lindane load of 745 t to European seas in 1995, based on the official emission data, would be reduced by 98.3% to approximately 12.5 t in 2005 (BAU scenario), 10 years after the start of the EU regulation of this chemical. The CT and PI ban scenarios indicate a reduction of sea loads of lindane in 2020 by 74% and 95%, respectively, when compared to the BAU estimate. For trifluralin, an annual load of approximately 61.7 t is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario), although the applied conservative assumptions related to pesticide use data availability in Europe. Under the PI (ban) scenario, assuming only small residual emissions of trifluralin, we estimate a sea loading of approximately 0.07 t/y. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated at approximately 5.8 t/y referred to 2007 (BAU scenario). Reducing the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of conventional scenarios or scenario typologies for emissions of contaminants using simple spatially explicit GIS-based models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of implementation of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets. © 2013 SETAC.

  20. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  1. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  2. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  3. Development and Use of the Stochastic Climate Change Scenario Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Hayes, M.; Svoboda, M. D.; Zalud, Z.

    2009-12-01

    The volume of GCM simulations available for climate change impact studies continually increases. This allows for better representation of uncertainties (between GCMs, between emission scenarios, between parameterizations, etc.), but, simultaneously, the volume of available GCM output data has become so large such that it poses a strong requirement for more effective organization of climate change impact analyses. In implementing the multi-model information for a given impact analysis, only scenarios from a subset of all available GCMs are mostly employed. Less frequently, the impact analysis is based on scenarios processed from all of the GCMs. However, this is not applicable in cases where an ensemble of GCM simulations is too large (for example, when dealing with the perturbed-physics ensemble available from climateprediction.net project). In such cases, one may use scenario emulators/generators, which may produce a large set of climate change scenarios representing the whole multivariate probability distribution function of the scenarios. In the first part of the presentation, the underlying model of the scenario generator is introduced. The generator is based on a multivariate parametric model whose parameters are derived from a set of GCM based scenarios (no limit on the size of the set, the model may also be calibrated with a very large perturbed-physics ensemble). Once calibrated, the generator may produce an arbitrarily large set of climate change scenarios. These scenarios consist of changes in monthly means and variabilities, and are easily linked with the stochastic weather generator M&Rfi, which produces daily weather series to be used as an input to the impact models. In the second part, the weather series produced by the weather generator linked to the scenario generator are used to make a probabilistic assessment of the climate change impacts on four soil climate parameters: (i) the length of vegetation window (number of days with suitable soil

  4. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

    PubMed

    Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

    2015-11-01

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

  5. Modeling the global levels and distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls in air under a climate change scenario.

    PubMed

    Lamon, Lara; Von Waldow, Harald; Macleod, Matthew; Scheringer, Martin; Marcomini, Antonio; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2009-08-01

    We used the multimedia chemical fate model BETR Global to evaluate changes in the global distribution of two polychlorinated biphenyls, PCB 28 and PCB 153, under the influence of climate change. This was achieved by defining two climate scenarios based on results from a general circulation model, one scenario representing the last twenty years of the 20th century (20CE scenario) and another representing the global climate under the assumption of strong future greenhouse gas emissions (A2 scenario). The two climate scenarios are defined by four groups of environmental parameters: (1) temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the free atmosphere, (2) wind speeds and directions in the atmosphere, (3) current velocities and directions in the surface mixed layer of the oceans, and (4) rate and geographical pattern of precipitation. As a fifth parameter in our scenarios, we considerthe effect of temperature on primary volatilization emissions of PCBs. Comparison of dynamic model results using environmental parameters from the 20CE scenario against historical long-term monitoring data of concentrations of PCB 28 and PCB 153 in air from 16 different sites shows satisfactory agreement between modeled and measured PCBs concentrations. The 20CE scenario and A2 scenario were compared using steady-state calculations and assuming the same source characteristics of PCBs. Temperature differences between the two scenarios is the dominant factor that determines the difference in PCB concentrations in air. The higher temperatures in the A2 scenario drive increased primary and secondary volatilization emissions of PCBs, and enhance transport from temperate regions to the Arctic. The largest relative increase in concentrations of both PCB congeners in air under the A2 scenario occurs in the high Arctic and the remote Pacific Ocean. Generally, higher wind speeds under the A2 scenario result in more efficient intercontinental transport of PCB 28 and PCB 153 compared to the 20CE

  6. 40 CFR 93.119 - Criteria and procedures: Interim emissions in areas without motor vehicle emissions budgets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... the NEPA process. (i) “Action” scenario. The regional emissions analysis required by paragraphs (b... or TIP, the ‘Baseline’ scenario must include the project with its original design concept and scope, and the ‘Action’ scenario must include the project with its new design concept and scope....

  7. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  8. Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection in Urban Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rejas Ayuga, J. G.; Martínez Marín, R.; Marchamalo Sacristán, M.; Bonatti, J.; Ojeda, J. C.

    2016-06-01

    We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR), shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain) and San José (Costa Rica) respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background) based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  9. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  10. Indian methane and nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation flexibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garg, Amit; Shukla, P. R.; Kapshe, Manmohan; Menon, Deepa

    Methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2O) contributed 27% and 7%, respectively, to India's CO 2 equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2000, the remaining being the carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. Presently, agriculture and livestock related emissions contribute above 65% of Indian CH 4 emissions and above 90% of N 2O emissions. Since these activities are widely dispersed, with a considerable portion being sub-sustenance activities, emission mitigation requires considerable efforts. We use geographical information system (GIS) interfaced Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse), which employs technology share projections, for estimating future CH 4 and N 2O emissions. The future emissions and mitigation flexibility are analyzed for a reference scenario and two mitigation scenarios (medium and strong). Future CH 4 emissions in 2030 are projected to reach 24.4 Tg (reference scenario), 21.3 Tg (medium mitigation scenario) and 17.6 Tg (strong mitigation scenario). Future CH 4 emission scenarios indicate rising shares of municipal solid waste (MSW) and coal bed methane, where mitigation technologies have good penetration potential. Improved cattle feed and digesters, and better rice paddy cultivation practices that are adopted for higher yields and improved irrigation coverage also offer CH 4 mitigation as ancillary benefits. Future N 2O emissions in 2030 are projected to reach 0.81 Tg (reference scenario), 0.69 Tg (medium mitigation scenario) and 0.6 Tg (strong mitigation scenario). Better utilization of nitrogen fertilizer and increased use of organic fertilizers, partly produced from MSW, offer interesting mitigation opportunities for N 2O emissions. Some of these technology initiatives are already visible in India at different stages of development and appropriate policy thrust may strengthen them in future.

  11. Exploring Policy Implications of Global Energy Scenarios That Stabilize Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hummel, H. L.

    2006-12-01

    Scenario analysis is an appropriate analytic technique for treating problems characterized by deep uncertainty, a condition in which both the values of variables and the relationships between them are uncertain. More than 700 hypothetical scenarios for energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century have been produced to explore a range of possible future conditions and the effects of specific policy interventions that could stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Though emission scenarios are widely cited in climate science studies and policy analysis, a gap in communication and understanding persists between scenario analysts whose models generate the emission paths and the scientists and policy analysts who use them. To more clearly identify the sources of emission reductions in stabilization scenarios, this paper proposes a method for a detailed decomposition that quantifies the following categories: demand reduction (including structural transformation in the economy, end-use energy efficiency, and improvements to energy supply efficiency), switching from fossil fuels to specific zero carbon energy sources, carbon sequestration, and land use change. The study applies such a mitigation decomposition technique to a set of sample scenarios generated by multiple models using a variety of reference cases constrained to relatively low stabilization targets. The range of results reflects uncertainty both about the initial assumptions for the reference scenarios and the numerous technology transition paths that could possibly achieve the stabilization targets. One policy-relevant finding is that a primary energy accounting convention called the direct equivalent method can create the appearance of mitigation through a reduction in energy use that is actually the result of fuel switching to non-combustion energy sources in the electric power sector (e.g. nuclear power, hydropower, and solar power). The IPCC Special Report on Emission

  12. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  13. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F; Stephen, Jamie; Stumborg, Mark; Fenton, James; Mani, Sudhagar

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  14. Emissions Inventory

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This page describes the role of emission inventories in the air quality management process, a description of how emission inventories are developed, and where U.S. emission inventory information can be found.

  15. Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model.

    PubMed

    Solecki, William D; Oliveri, Charles

    2004-08-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.

  16. Polar Low genesis over the North Pacific under different global warming scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Fei; von Storch, Hans; Zeng, Lili; Du, Yan

    2014-12-01

    Following an earlier climatological study of North Pacific Polar Lows by employing dynamical downscaling of NCEP1 reanalysis in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the characteristics of Polar Low genesis over the North Pacific under different global warming scenarios are investigated. Simulations based on three scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios were conducted using a global climate model (ECHAM5) and used to examine systematic changes in the occurrence of Polar Lows over the twenty first century. The results show that with more greenhouse gas emissions, global air temperature would rise, and the frequency of Polar Lows would decrease. With sea ice melting, the distribution of Polar Low genesis shows a northward shift. In the scenarios with stronger warming there is a larger reduction in the number of Polar Lows.

  17. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  18. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  19. Superclustering in the explosion scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinberg, David H.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Dekel, Avishai

    1989-01-01

    A simple toy model is used to study the spatial distribution of rich clusters in a generic type of explosion scenario. The model, parameterized by the distribution of shell radii and the filling factor, places spherical shells at random and identifies each 'knot' as a cluster. The resulting cluster correlation function is close to a power law extending to the diameter of the largest spheres. Richer clusters form at the intersections of bigger shells and so have stronger correlations. Typical shell radii and filling factors are required to produce the observed number density of clusters. Models with a power-law radius distribution also reproduce the richness distribution of clusters in the Abell catalog. Supercluster multiplicity functions, void probabilities, number counts, topology statistics, and velocity correlations confirm the presence of strong superclustering and quantify the non-Gaussian nature of the model.

  20. Superclustering in the explosion scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinberg, David H.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Dekel, Avishai

    1989-01-01

    A simple toy model is used to study the spatial distribution of rich clusters in a generic type of explosion scenario. The model, parameterized by the distribution of shell radii and the filling factor, places spherical shells at random and identifies each 'knot' as a cluster. The resulting cluster correlation function is close to a power law extending to the diameter of the largest spheres. Richer clusters form at the intersections of bigger shells and so have stronger correlations. Typical shell radii and filling factors are required to produce the observed number density of clusters. Models with a power-law radius distribution also reproduce the richness distribution of clusters in the Abell catalog. Supercluster multiplicity functions, void probabilities, number counts, topology statistics, and velocity correlations confirm the presence of strong superclustering and quantify the non-Gaussian nature of the model.

  1. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  2. Unidentified Infrared Emission Features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joblin, Christine

    2015-03-01

    When referring to unidentified infrared emission features, one has in mind the series of aromatic IR bands (AIBs) between 3.3 and 15 μm that are observed in emission in many environments where UV photons irradiate interstellar matter. These bands are now used by astronomers to classify objects and characterize local physical conditions. However, a deep analysis cannot proceed without understanding the properties of the band carriers. Large polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules are attractive candidates but interstellar species are still poorly characterized. Various studies emphasize the need for tackling the link between molecular aromatic species, aliphatic material and very small carbonaceous grains. Other unidentified emission features such as the 6.9, 21 and 30 μm bands could be involved in the evolutionary scenario.

  3. Toward XML Representation of NSS Simulation Scenario for Mission Scenario Exchange Capability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-09-01

    Combat XXI Program...........................13 2. Transition NSS to a Java Environment ...........................................13 3. Shift to an...and Reconnaissance IV&V Independent Verification and Validation xvi JCS Joint Chiefs of Staff JDOM Java Document Object Model...Scenario .xml NSS Simulation Scenario .xsd NSS Simulation Scenario . java NSS Simulation Scenario Text ? XML .xslt NSS Simulation

  4. Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important?

    PubMed

    Beaumont, Linda J; Hughes, Lesley; Pitman, A J

    2008-11-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are common tools for assessing the potential impact of climate change on species ranges. Uncertainty in SDM output occurs due to differences among alternate models, species characteristics and scenarios of future climate. While considerable effort is being devoted to identifying and quantifying the first two sources of variation, a greater understanding of climate scenarios and how they affect SDM output is also needed. Climate models are complex tools: variability occurs among alternate simulations, and no single 'best' model exists. The selection of climate scenarios for impacts assessments should not be undertaken arbitrarily - strengths and weakness of different climate models should be considered. In this paper, we provide bioclimatic modellers with an overview of emissions scenarios and climate models, discuss uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate and suggest steps that can be taken to reduce and communicate climate scenario-related uncertainty in assessments of future species responses to climate change.

  5. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  6. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  7. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    DOE PAGES

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scalesmore » and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.« less

  8. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  9. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment.

    PubMed

    Kunkel, Kenneth E; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  10. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  11. The narcissistic scenarios of parenthood.

    PubMed

    Manzano, J; Palacio Espasa, F; Zilkha, N

    1999-06-01

    The authors begin by pointing out that Freud always considered parent-child relations in terms of the child's psychic development and took little account of the parents' experience of the relationship and its psychic effects on them. They recall Freud's distinction between the anaclitic and narcissistic modes of relationship and show how these are unconsciously embodied and enacted in varying proportions in the cases observed in their own clinical practice of therapeutic consultations with parents and young children. After a review of the relevant psychoanalytic literature, the authors present their concept of the narcissistic scenarios of parenthood, which include parental projection on to the child, parental counter-identification, a specific aim and a relational dynamic that is acted out. Depending on the individual situation, the effects may help to structure the developing psyche or, if the narcissistic element is excessive, they may be pathological. The authors consider the literature on the application of psychoanalysis to therapeutic interventions with parents and children, stressing the technical importance of establishing a therapeutic focus. These ideas are illustrated by a detailed case history showing the interaction between a mother and a 4-year-old girl and how it was modified by a short therapy. The differences between interpretation in this situation and in the classical psychoanalytic setting are explained, and the paper ends with some comments on the transmission of psychic elements from generation to generation.

  12. Agricultural Baseline (BL0) scenario

    DOE Data Explorer

    Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinckel, Chad M [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154)

    2016-07-13

    Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the reference case for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios. The agricultural baseline runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used. Date the data set was last modified: 02/12/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: simulation was developed without offering a farmgate price to energy crops or residues (i.e., building on both the USDA 2015 baseline and the agricultural census data (USDA NASS 2014). Data generated are .txt output files by year, simulation identifier, county code (1-3109). Instruments used: POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B) supplied by the University of Tennessee APAC The quality assurance and quality control that have been applied: • Check for negative planted area, harvested area, production, yield and cost values. • Check if harvested area exceeds planted area for annuals. • Check FIPS codes.

  13. Future ozone and oxidants change under the RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Minjoong J.; Park, Rokjin J.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Woo, Jung-Hun; Choi, Ki-Chul; Song, Chang-Keun; Lee, Jae-Bum

    2015-01-01

    We investigate ozone air quality changes in 2050 caused by global changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors by using a global chemical transport model driven by meteorological fields from a general circulation model. We use projected emissions based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and conduct model simulations to quantify the effects of climate and emission changes on future air quality, focusing on ozone in surface air. Our model results show that annual mean concentrations of surface ozone will be lower in 2050 relative to 2000 by -3.3, -3.7, and -4.2 ppbv under RCP6.0, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, respectively. In contrast, the RCP8.5 projection results in a slight increase of 2.1 ppbv caused by a methane increase. The ozone reductions are driven primarily by decreases in NOx emission, which dominate the climate penalty on ozone driven by temperature increases. We also estimate the effect of 21st century climate change on ozone air quality, assuming no changes in anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors in the future. We further use a statistical method to analyze the results in order to quantify the effect of each meteorological variable change on ozone concentration in summer. Temperature increase is found to result in ozone increases of up to 2.2 ppbv over land. Ozone over the oceans, however, is largely reduced with specific humidity increase, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where the ozone concentration decreases by 0.8 ppbv. We find that future increases in natural NOx emissions from lightning and soil make an important contribution to the formation of nitric acid and might seriously offset future decreases in nitrogen deposition caused by anthropogenic NOx emission reduction.

  14. NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Xu, J. Y.; Fu, K.; Klimont, Z.; Hao, J. M.; He, K. B.; Cofala, J.; Amann, M.

    2013-06-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4, 34.0, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64 and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective Catalytic Reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020, and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to

  15. NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Liu, H.; Xu, J. Y.; Fu, K.; Klimont, Z.; Hao, J. M.; He, K. B.; Cofala, J.; Amann, M.

    2013-10-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to

  16. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  17. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2017-03-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  18. The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.

    PubMed

    Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming.

  19. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  20. Modelling the health impact of environmentally sustainable dietary scenarios in the UK

    PubMed Central

    Scarborough, P; Allender, S; Clarke, D; Wickramasinghe, K; Rayner, M

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Food is responsible for around one-fifth of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from products consumed in the UK, the largest contributor of which is meat and dairy. The Committee on Climate Change have modelled the impact on GHG emissions of three dietary scenarios for food consumption in the UK. This paper models the impact of the three scenarios on mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A previously published model (DIETRON) was used. The three scenarios were parameterised by fruit and vegetables, fibre, total fat, saturated fat, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, cholesterol and salt using the 2008 Family Food Survey. A Monte Carlo simulation generated 95% credible intervals. RESULTS: Scenario 1 (50% reduction in meat and dairy replaced by fruit, vegetables and cereals: 19% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 36 910 (30 192 to 43 592) deaths delayed or averted per year. Scenario 2 (75% reduction in cow and sheep meat replaced by pigs and poultry: 9% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 1999 (1739 to 2389) deaths delayed or averted. Scenario 3 (50% reduction in pigs and poultry replaced with fruit, vegetables and cereals: 3% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 9297 (7288 to 11 301) deaths delayed or averted. CONCLUSION: Modelled results suggest that public health and climate change dietary goals are in broad alignment with the largest results in both domains occurring when consumption of all meat and dairy products are reduced. Further work in real-life settings is needed to confirm these results. PMID:22491494

  1. Air Quality Improvements of Increased Integration of Renewables: Solar Photovoltaics Penetration Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duran, P.; Holloway, T.; Brinkman, G.; Denholm, P.; Littlefield, C. M.

    2011-12-01

    Solar photovoltaics (PV) are an attractive technology because they can be locally deployed and tend to yield high production during periods of peak electric demand. These characteristics can reduce the need for conventional large-scale electricity generation, thereby reducing emissions of criteria air pollutants (CAPs) and improving ambient air quality with regard to such pollutants as nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and fine particulates. Such effects depend on the local climate, time-of-day emissions, available solar resources, the structure of the electric grid, and existing electricity production among other factors. This study examines the air quality impacts of distributed PV across the United States Eastern Interconnection. In order to accurately model the air quality impact of distributed PV in space and time, we used the National Renewable Energy Lab's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to form three unique PV penetration scenarios in which new PV construction is distributed spatially based upon economic drivers and natural solar resources. Those scenarios are 2006 Eastern Interconnection business as usual, 10% PV penetration, and 20% PV penetration. With the GridView (ABB, Inc) dispatch model, we used historical load data from 2006 to model electricity production and distribution for each of the three scenarios. Solar PV electric output was estimated using historical weather data from 2006. To bridge the gap between dispatch and air quality modeling, we will create emission profiles for electricity generating units (EGUs) in the Eastern Interconnection from historical Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data. Via those emissions profiles, we will create hourly emission data for EGUs in the Eastern Interconnect for each scenario during 2006. Those data will be incorporated in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. Initial results indicate that PV

  2. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible

  3. Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W.

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100. PMID:24391717

  4. Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

    PubMed

    Lane, Diana R; Ready, Richard C; Buddemeier, Robert W; Martinich, Jeremy A; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

  5. The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Liang, Qing; Strahan, Susan E.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

  6. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J.; Kyle, Page; ...

    2017-02-27

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a pricemore » to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.« less

  7. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Mignone, Bryan K; Kheshgi, Haroon S

    2017-03-21

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21(st) century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. By contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.

  8. Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.

    2012-06-01

    The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N2O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N2O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges.

  9. Mortality estimation based on Business as Usual Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos; Barlas, Ceren

    2013-04-01

    Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. Epidemiological studies have shown that these pollutants increase lung cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the concentration of such pollutants in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050), based on a Business as Usual scenario. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). Based on the modeled pollutants concentrations and the UN estimates of population growth in the future, we assessed the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. The premature mortality for people of 30 years and older were estimated using a health impact function using parameters derived from epidemiological studies. Our results suggest that with a Business as Usual scenario, the ratio between mortality and population would increase of ~ 50% by 2050. This ratio, together with the increase of world population, would lead by the year 2050 to 8.9 millions premature deaths, equivalent to 79 millions of YYL.

  10. New Study For Climate Modeling, Analyses, and Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowe, Jason A.; Hewitt, Chris D.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Johns, Tim C.; Stehfest, Elke; Royer, Jean-François; van der Linden, Paul J.

    2009-05-01

    The European Commission is funding the ENSEMBLES project, which aims to provide policy makers with information from the latest climate modeling, analyses, and scenarios. Currently, the most comprehensive estimates of climate change are made using general circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models, but these have been used mostly to simulate futures that do not factor in climate mitigation policy. The results of these simulations typically show global average warming greatly exceeding the European Union (EU) climate policy target of 2°C above preindustrial levels, with associated large impacts on human and natural systems. To date, simple climate models typically have been used to assess the emissions trajectories that are required for meeting this target. The ENSEMBLES project is the first international multiclimate model intercomparison using a politically relevant aggressive mitigation scenario, referred to as E1 (Figures 1a and 1b). This scenario leads to a peak in the carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent concentration in the atmosphere at around 535 parts per million (ppm) in 2045 before eventually stabilizing at around 450 ppm during the 22nd century. The climate models used are generally improved or extended versions of models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report.

  11. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    PubMed

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  12. Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

  13. Multimedia Scenario in a Primary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nulden, Urban; Ward, Bodil

    2002-01-01

    Multimedia as an educational technology tool is used throughout the educational system. In this article we present a research project where multimedia scenario was used to initiate a discussion about Internet use among students and teachers at a primary school. Multimedia scenario is the use of large screen multimedia to initiate and facilitate…

  14. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  15. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  16. Eight Scenarios for Work in the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morf, Martin

    1983-01-01

    Changes in society and technology could bring a broad variety of possible futures, as these eight scenarios of the world of work show. The scenarios depict what we can expect if technology continues to progress and reduce the number of jobs available. Future work may be challenging and profitable. (NW)

  17. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  18. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  19. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  20. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  1. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  2. Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pašičko, Robert; Stanić, Zoran; Debrecin, Nenad

    2010-05-01

    The main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.

  3. Writing clinical scenarios for clinical science questions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Phil Em; Mucklow, John C

    2016-04-01

    Written knowledge assessments for physicians in training typically involve multiple-choice questions that use a clinical scenario in a single-best-answer format. The Royal College of Physicians Part 1 MRCP(UK) examination includes basic sciences themes that are challenging to assess through a clinical scenario. A realistic clinical setting based on everyday clinical practice and integral to the question is the clearest demonstration that the knowledge being assessed is clinically relevant. However, without special attention to detail, the scenario in a clinical science question can appear redundant or artificial. Reading unnecessary material frustrates candidates and threatens the reputation of the assessment. In this paper we discuss why a clinical scenario is important for basic science questions and offer advice on setting realistic and plausible clinical scenarios for such questions.

  4. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  5. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  6. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.

  7. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    PubMed

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  8. Investigating the evolution of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with a large number of scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schweizer, V. J.; Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

    2013-12-01

    The new scenario framework for climate change research includes alternative possible trends for socioeconomic development called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs bear some similarities to other scenarios used for global change research, but they also have important differences. Like the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, SSPs are defined by a scenario logic consisting of two axes. However, these axes define SSPs with respect to their location in an outcome space for challenges to mitigation and to adaptation rather than by their drivers. Open questions for the SSPs include what their drivers are and how the time dimension could be interpreted with the outcomes space. We present a new analytical approach for addressing both questions by studying large numbers of scenarios produced by an integrated assessment model, IMACLIM-R. We systematically generated 432 scenarios and used the SSP framework to classify them by typology. We then analyzed them dynamically, tracing their evolution through the SSP challenges space at annual time steps over the period 2010-2090. Through this approach, we found that many scenarios do not remain fixed to a particular SSP domain; they drift from one domain to another. In papers describing the framework for new scenarios, SSPs are envisioned as hypothetical (counter-factual) reference scenarios that remain fixed in one domain over some time period of interest. However, we conclude that it may be important to also research scenarios that shift across SSP domains. This is relevant for another open question, which is what scenarios are important to explore given their consequences. Through a data mining technique, we uncovered prominent drivers for scenarios that shift across SSP domains. Scenarios with different challenges for adaptation and mitigation (that is, mitigation and adaptation challenges that are not co-varying) were found to be the least stable, and the following

  9. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  10. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caille, F.; Riera, J. L.; Rodríguez-Labajos, B.; Middelkoop, H.; Rosell-Melé, A.

    2007-11-01

    Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain), as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993-2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC). After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives) for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  11. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caille, F.; Riera, J. L.; Rodríguez-Labajos, B.; Middelkoop, H.; Rosell-Melé, A.

    2007-05-01

    Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain), as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993-2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e., through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC). After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives) for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also presented. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  12. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azpeleta, Alicia; Fule, Peter; Shive, Kristen; Sieg, Carolyn; Sanchez-Meador, Andrew; Strom, Barbara

    2013-04-01

    To assess post-fire vegetation recovery under the influence of climate change, we applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multi-species forest of Arizona, U.S.A. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) projections of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon storage. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon storage relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no-treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S.A. management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the

  13. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  14. Common Criteria Based Security Scenario Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohnishi, Atsushi

    Software is required to comply with the laws and standards of software security. However, stakeholders with less concern regarding security can neither describe the behaviour of the system with regard to security nor validate the system’s behaviour when the security function conflicts with usability. Scenarios or use-case specifications are common in requirements elicitation and are useful to analyze the usability of the system from a behavioural point of view. In this paper, the authors propose both (1) a scenario language based on a simple case grammar and (2) a method to verify a scenario with rules based on security evaluation criteria.

  15. Vocational training: the case scenario workshop.

    PubMed

    Winter-Moore, P H

    2001-01-01

    This article describes the procedure for conducting a workshop for a vocational training group, using six clinical case scenarios harvested from the vocational training group's own experience. During the session, the main group (which includes trainers) breaks up into smaller groups to discuss the management of each case, then a spokesperson presents the management solutions back to the re-assembled larger group: further interaction and discussion then takes place. This article discusses six typical case scenarios from a recent workshop. The case scenario workshop is an exciting way to encourage discussion and interaction with all parties involved.

  16. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  17. Connecting measurement invasiveness to optimal metrological scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreira, Saulo V.; Adesso, Gerardo; Correa, Luis A.; Coudreau, Thomas; Keller, Arne; Milman, Pérola

    2017-07-01

    The connection between the Leggett-Garg inequality and optimal scenarios from the point of view of quantum metrology is investigated for perfect and noisy general dichotomic measurements. In this context, we show that the Fisher information can be expressed in terms of quantum temporal correlations. This connection allows us to associate scenarios with relatively high Fisher information to scenarios in which the Leggett-Garg inequality is violated. We thus demonstrate a qualitative and, to some extent, quantitative link between measurement invasiveness and metrological performance. Finally, we illustrate our results by using a specific model for spin systems.

  18. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  19. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  20. Can the Nanoflare Model Reproduce Observed Emissions?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mulu-Moore, Fana M.; Winebarger, Amy R.; Warren, Harry P.

    2011-01-01

    All theories that attempt to explain the high temperatures observed in the solar corona are based on short bursts of energy release. The intensities and velocities measured in the core of an active, however, can be steady over many hours of observation. One heating scenario that has been proposed to reconcile such observations with models is the "long nanoflare storm," where short duration heating events occur infrequently on many sub-resolutions strands. In this Letter, we examine the emission measure distribution predicted for such a heating scenario by modeling an arcade of strands in an active region core. Comparisons of the computed emission measure distributions with recent observations indicate that that the long nanoflare storm scenario implies much more 1 MK emission than is actually observed for all plausible combinations of loop lengths, heating rates, and abundances. We conjecture that if the plasma had super coronal abundances, the model may be able to match the observations at low temperatures.

  1. Implications of diesel emissions control failures to emission factors and road transport NOx evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ntziachristos, Leonidas; Papadimitriou, Giannis; Ligterink, Norbert; Hausberger, Stefan

    2016-09-01

    Diesel NOx emissions have been at the forefront of research and regulation scrutiny as a result of failures of late vehicle technologies to deliver on-road emissions reductions. The current study aims at identifying the actual emissions levels of late light duty vehicle technologies, including Euro 5 and Euro 6 ones. Mean NOx emission factor levels used in the most popular EU vehicle emission models (COPERT, HBEFA and VERSIT+) are compared with latest emission information collected in the laboratory over real-world driving cycles and on the road using portable emissions measurement systems (PEMS). The comparison shows that Euro 5 passenger car (PC) emission factors well reflect on road levels and that recently revealed emissions control failures do not call for any significant corrections. However Euro 5 light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and Euro 6 PCs in the 2014-2016 period exhibit on road emission levels twice as high as used in current models. Moreover, measured levels vary a lot for Euro 6 vehicles. Scenarios for future evolution of Euro 6 emission factors, reflecting different degree of effectiveness of emissions control regulations, show that total NOx emissions from diesel Euro 6 PC and LCV may correspond from 49% up to 83% of total road transport emissions in 2050. Unless upcoming and long term regulations make sure that light duty diesel NOx emissions are effectively addressed, this will have significant implications in meeting future air quality and national emissions ceilings targets.

  2. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

  3. Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US: Biofuel scenarios from 2000-2030

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, T. O.; Bandaru, V.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Brandt, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    Uniform methods for land use assessment from local to continental scales are important for supporting national policies that focus on local management. In an effort to bridge local and national scales, we have been conducting land-use change research for the continental U.S. and doing so using 56-m resolution land use data. We have recently completed five scenarios of agricultural land-use change that represent a range of plausible biomass feedstock production. The scenarios include meeting targets of the Energy Independence and Security Act; alternative scenarios of only corn grain ethanol versus only cellulosic ethanol production; and alternative scenarios of no ethanol production with current agricultural program incentives versus no ethanol production with no monetary incentives for agricultural practices. These scenarios have implications for carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, water quality, and other environmental variables. These scenarios also represent relevant policy issues that are currently being debated. We will present methods used to estimate future land-use change that include use of the USDA Cropland Data Layer, the POLYSYS agricultural economic model, and the Land Use Carbon Allocation model. We will present results that include spatially-explicit changes in crop rotations associated with the aforementioned biofuel scenarios. Results will consist of acreage changes per crop and the expected geographic location of these changes for years 2000-2030.

  4. Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

    2007-12-01

    There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

  5. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  6. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016965 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  7. Kondratyev and Skripochka during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016976 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonauts Dmitry Kondratyev (left) and Oleg Skripochka, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, look over a procedures manual during an emergency scenarios drill in the Harmony node of the International Space Station.

  8. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016970 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (right) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  9. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016963 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  10. Scenarios for the Evolution of Asteroid Belts

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2012-11-01

    This illustration shows three possible scenarios for the evolution of asteroid belts. At the top, a Jupiter-size planet migrates through the asteroid belt, scattering material and inhibiting the formation of life on planets.

  11. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  12. Development and Validation of Videotaped Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Noel, Nora E.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Johnson, James D.; Jackson, Lee A.; Goings, Christopher D.; Hagman, Brett T.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios. PMID:18252938

  13. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  14. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2000-10-01

    Visualizing Risks : Icons for Information Attack Scenarios Hilary H. Hosmer Data Security, Inc. Bedford, MA 01730 Email: hosmer@datasecinc.com...and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic protocol analysis, and INFOSEC training...

  15. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  16. Scenarios over the past 3 decades: air quality impact of European legislation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G. G. A.; Guizzardi, D.; Schaaf, E.; Muntean, M.; Dentener, F. J.; Sindelarova, K.; Granier, C.

    2014-12-01

    The impacts of air pollution span from local to global, affecting human health, climate, visibility and ecosystems. Several actions at national, regional and global scale have been adopted to reduce pollutant emission levels. In our work we make use of the EDGAR_ v4.3 emission database to compare today's pollutant levels with ex-post scenarios developed to assess the impact and effectiveness of legislation over the last 3 decades on air quality and climate. Differently from most of literature works addressing future air quality, here we focus on historical global anthropogenic emissions (years 1970-2010) of several gaseous and particulate air pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC) and past emission scenarios to demonstrate the role that policy has played in improving air quality. Three scenarios have been developed and compared to today's situation (year 2010), assuming the lack of abatement measures, the complete stagnation of technology (no reduction measures applied and constant emission factors from 1970), and a constant fuel mixture (with a more prominent role for coal in the 1970s). Special focus is dedicated to the power generation sector, manufacturing industry and road transport activities since these were mostly influenced by official regulations in the EU. Global SO2 emissions from transport dropped down by 8.5 times due to the deployment of low S content fuels; NOx and CO emissions are indeed a function of combustion efficiency and therefore decreased with the introduction of new technologies, while NH3 emitted by road transport increased in Europe by 18% due to the introduction of catalyzers. Finally, particulate matter emissions are mainly abated by the installation of End-of-Pipe measures (e.g. filters) especially in the energy and transport sectors.

  17. Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.

    SciTech Connect

    Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

    2008-08-01

    A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

  18. Trends in future N₂O emissions due to land use change.

    PubMed

    Nol, Linda; Verburg, Peter H; Moors, Eddy J

    2012-02-01

    Better insight in the possible range of future N₂O emissions can help to construct mitigation and adaptation strategies and to adapt land use planning and management to climate objectives. The Dutch fen meadow landscape is a hotspot of N₂O emission due to high nitrogen inputs combined with moist peat soils due to land use change. Socio-economic developments in the area are expected to have major impacts on N₂O emission. The goals of this study are to estimate changes in N₂O emissions for the period 2006-2040 under three different scenarios for the Dutch fen meadow landscape (rural production, rural fragmentation, and rural multifunctionality) and to quantify the share of different emission sources. Three scenarios were constructed and quantified based on the Story-And-Simulation approach. The rural production and the rural fragmentation scenarios are characterized by globalization and a market-oriented economy; in the rural production scenario dairy farming has a strong competitive position in the study region, while under the rural fragmentation scenario agriculture is declining. Under the rural multifunctionality scenario, the global context is characterized by regionalization and stronger regulation toward environmental issues. The N₂O emission decreased between 2006 and 2040 under all scenarios. Under the rural production scenario, the N₂O emission decreased by 7%. Due to measures to limit peat mineralization and policies to reduce agricultural emissions, the rural multifunctionality scenario showed the largest decrease in N₂O emissions (44%). Under the rural fragmentation scenario, in which the dairy farming sector is diminished, the emission decreased by 33%. Compared to other uncertainties involved in N₂O emission estimates, the uncertainty due to possible future land use change is relatively large and assuming a constant emission with time is therefore not appropriate. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Dealing with multi-GCM ensemble in developing the climate change scenarios the probabilistic impact assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, M.

    2010-09-01

    The volume of GCM simulations available for climate change impact studies continually increases. On the one hand, this allows for a better representation of uncertainties (between GCMs, between emission scenarios, between parameterizations, etc.). On the other hand, the volume of available GCM output data has become so large such that it poses a strong requirement for more effective organization of climate change impact analyses: it is not always possible to involve scenarios from all available GCMs. To account for the uncertainties in this case, two approaches are at hand: (i) Applying scenarios from a subset of all available GCMs. (ii) Applying scenario emulator/generator, which may produce a large set of climate change scenarios representing the multivariate probability density function of the scenarios. The present contribution addresses both of these two approaches: (A) Choice of the "representative" subset of GCMs. In defining the subset, two circumstances are taken into account: (i) performance of GCMs to reproduce the present climate, (ii) ability of the subset to represent the variability of scenarios across the whole set of GCMs. The gridded maps will show the chosen subsets for the whole Europe. (B) Use of the stochastic climate change scenario generator. The generator used here is based on a multivariate parametric model whose parameters are derived from a set of GCM based scenarios (no limit on the size of the calibration set, the model may also be calibrated with a very large perturbed-physics ensemble). Once calibrated, the generator may produce an arbitrarily large set of climate change scenarios. The results of the validation of the scenario generator will be presented. The validation consists in comparing distribution functions of changes in temperature, precipitation and drought conditions (in terms of Palmer drought indices) in several sites in Europe and U.S.A. based on (i) a set of individual GCM simulations (taken from IPCC AR4 database) vs

  20. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  1. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    PubMed

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  2. Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

  3. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  4. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Weindl, Isabelle; Bertram, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan-Philipp; Luderer, Gunnar; Pehl, Michaja; Pietzcker, Robert; Piontek, Franziska; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bonsch, Markus; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Schultes, Anselm; Schwanitz, Jana; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2016-08-18

    Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

  5. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  6. Impact of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Indonesia: NO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Susandi, A.

    2004-12-01

    In this study, we develop scenarios of total air pollution from fossil fuel consumption and its impacts for the 21st century, using an inter-temporal general equilibrium model MERGE. The Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects of greenhouse gas reduction policies (MERGE) is used to project energy consumption and production. We use the base scenarios from IPCC (2000). These scenarios assume that no measures are undertaken to control greenhouse gas emissions. We extend the IPCC scenarios with mitigation scenarios, estimating the air pollution impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction. The MERGE model was extended to analyze emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), their concentrations, impacts on human health, and economic valuation. To estimate of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) impacts on respiratory symptoms, we calculated the NO2 concentration as derived from nitrogen oxide (NOx). In the baseline scenario, the concentrations of NO2 are rising to 2,263 μg/m3 in 2100. If the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries reduce their emissions, respiratory symptoms among adult's associated with NO2 case would reach the highest to 65,741% of adult population cases by the end of century. If all countries reduce their emission in the future, the total health problem cost associated with NO2 will lower 35% of GDP than in the baseline scenario during the century.

  7. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios.

    PubMed

    Christensen, Thomas H; Simion, Federico; Tonini, Davide; Møller, Jacob

    2009-11-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO(2)-eq.-tonne(-1) of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical-biological waste treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0-400, scenarios with incineration saved 200-700, and scenarios with mechanical-biological treatment saved 200- 750 kg CO(2)-eq. tonne(- 1) municipal waste depending on recycling scheme and energy recovery. Key parameters were the amount of paper recycled (it was assumed that wood made excessive by paper recycling substituted for fossil fuel), the crediting of the waste management system for the amount of energy recovered (hard-coal-based energy was substituted), and binding of biogenic carbon in landfills. Most other processes were of less importance. Rational waste management can provide significant savings in society's emission of greenhouse gas depending on waste composition and efficient utilization of the energy recovered.

  8. Low Energy, Low Emissions: Sulfur Dioxide; Nitrogen Oxides, and Carbon Dioxide in Western Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alcamo, Joseph; De Vries, Bert

    1992-01-01

    Links proposed low-energy scenarios for different Western European countries with the amount of pollutants that may result from these scenarios. Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated for the 10 countries for which low-energy scenarios are available, resulting in reductions of 54%, 37%, and 40%, respectively.…

  9. Low Energy, Low Emissions: Sulfur Dioxide; Nitrogen Oxides, and Carbon Dioxide in Western Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alcamo, Joseph; De Vries, Bert

    1992-01-01

    Links proposed low-energy scenarios for different Western European countries with the amount of pollutants that may result from these scenarios. Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated for the 10 countries for which low-energy scenarios are available, resulting in reductions of 54%, 37%, and 40%, respectively.…

  10. On strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Bolin, B; Kheshgi, H S

    2001-04-24

    Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO(2) emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO(2) at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO(2) emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO(2) concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them.

  11. On strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    PubMed Central

    Bolin, Bert; Kheshgi, Haroon S.

    2001-01-01

    Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO2 emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO2 emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them. PMID:11296250

  12. Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    Using the prototype repository, the user can access and download each scenario through a hyperlink. The database administrator (DBA) has the option to...handle user security, upload and download of scenarios, message boards, blogs, wikis, or a scenario rating system; all of these features have been...file [AccessRuntime.EXE] from the CD or download it from the Microsoft Download Center. 7 There are no other system requirements, given the small

  13. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.

  14. Future trends of global atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Junrui; Tian, Hezhong; Zhu, Chuanyong; Hao, Jiming; Gao, Jiajia; Wang, Yong; Xue, Yifeng; Hua, Shenbin; Wang, Kun

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents the scenario forecast of global atmospheric antimony (Sb) emissions from anthropogenic activities till 2050. The projection scenarios are built based on the comprehensive global antimony emission inventory for the period 1995-2010 which is reported in our previous study. Three scenarios are set up to investigate the future changes of global antimony emissions as well as their source and region contribution characteristics. Trends of activity levels specified as 5 primary source categories are projected by combining the historical trend extrapolation with EIA International energy outlook 2013, while the source-specific dynamic emission factors are determined by applying transformed normal distribution functions. If no major changes in the efficiency of emission control are introduced and keep current air quality legislations (Current Legislation scenario), global antimony emissions will increase by a factor of 2 between 2010 and 2050. The largest increase in Sb emissions is projected from Asia due to large volume of nonferrous metals production and waste incineration. In case of enforcing the pollutant emission standards (Strengthened Control scenario), global antimony emissions in 2050 will stabilize with that of 2010. Moreover, we can anticipate further declines in Sb emissions for all continents with the best emission control performances (Maximum Feasible Technological Reduction scenario). Future antimony emissions from the top 10 largest emitting countries have also been calculated and source category contributions of increasing emissions of these countries present significant diversity. Furthermore, global emission projections in 2050 are distributed within a 1° × 1°latitude/longitude grid. East Asia, Western Europe and North America present remarkable differences in emission intensity under the three scenarios, which implies that source-and-country specific control measures are necessary to be implemented for abating Sb emissions from

  15. Model sustainability in DSS design and scenario formulation: what are the right scenarios?

    PubMed

    Schreider SYu; Mostovaia, A D

    2001-09-01

    A concept of the integrated approach in designing multidisciplinary decision support systems (DSS) based on agricultural scenarios for sustainable catchment management is discussed. A principle of holism underlying the integrated approach to DSS design is formulated. For a model to be viable and sustainable, it should be based on scenarios that are plausible and highly typical from the point of view of those 'doing' agriculture. Problems concerning principles of scenario formulation within the integrated approach are considered. A notion of 'prototype' scenarios based on 'joint venture' of modellers and stakeholders is proposed.

  16. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  17. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  18. Singular vector decomposition for sensitivity analyses of tropospheric chemical scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goris, N.; Elbern, H.

    2011-06-01

    Observations of the chemical state of the atmosphere typically provide only sparse snapshots of the state of the system due to their insufficient temporal and spatial density. Therefore the measurement configurations need to be optimised to get a best possible state estimate. One possibility to optimise the state estimate is provided by observation targeting of sensitive system states, to identify measurement configurations of best value for forecast improvements. In recent years, numerical weather prediction adapted singular vector analysis with respect to initial values as a novel method to identify sensitive states. In the present work, this technique is transferred from meteorological to chemical forecast. Besides initial values, emissions are investigated as controlling variables. More precisely uncertainties in the amplitude of the diurnal profile of emissions are analysed, yielding emission factors as target variables. Singular vector analysis is extended to allow for projected target variables not only at final time but also at initial time. Further, special operators are introduced, which consider the combined influence of groups of chemical species. As a preparation for targeted observation calculations, the concept of adaptive observations is studied with a chemistry box model. For a set of six different scenarios, the VOC versus NOx limitation of the ozone formation is investigated. Results reveal, that the singular vectors are strongly dependent on start time and length of the simulation. As expected, singular vectors with initial values as target variables tend to be more sensitive to initial values, while emission factors as target variables are more sensitive to simulation length. Further, the particular importance of chemical compounds differs strongly between absolute and relative error growth.

  19. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    SciTech Connect

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  20. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

  1. Megacity impacts on global air quality under present and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.; Stock, Z.; Russo, M.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2011-12-01

    Over half of the population of the world now lives in cities, with the global rate of urbanisation expected to continue well into the 21st century. A significant fraction of this urban population lives in so- called "Megacities", which are commonly defined as urban areas containing more than 10 million people, although there is no formally accepted definition. These shifts in the distribution of population and economic activity are expected to lead to changes in the emissions of atmospheric pollutants, which in turn could be expected to lead to changes in air quality within Megacities, in the regions surrounding Megacities, and perhaps also at the global scale. A global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport is an essential part of any integrated assessment of the effects of megacities at these scales. Global models require global emission inventories as input, along with appropriate emission scenarios. Unfortunately there are very few global emission scenarios available which are explicitly designed to explore differences in projected rates of urbanisation. In this work we examine the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emissions projections which are freely available as part of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project for the IPCC AR5 report). We compare the future projections of Megacity emissions from four different RCP datasets and describe strategies of adapting these RCP projections for the study of Megacity impacts on air quality. Results of global chemical transport model studies examining these projections will also be presented.

  2. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  3. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  4. Applications of Microthrusters for Satellite Missions and Formation Flights Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dittus, H.; van Zoest, T.

    2011-11-01

    Low thrust engines (e.g. ion thrusters, arcjet engines, magneto-plasmadynamic systems) with high specific impulses became important tools for recent space missions (SMART 1, Hayabusa 1 …). Although in particular ion thrusters demonstrated high reliability and long term stability, their performance is not sufficient for satellite systems requiring drag-free, high precision attitude and orbit control. An increasing number of missions for geodetic purposes or astronomic science goals as well as formation flight scenarios with precise distance control between single satellites require much better propulsion systems enabling thrust control down to the sub-μN level. Micropropulsion systems must be able (i) to compen