Science.gov

Sample records for a2 scenario results

  1. Position coding effects in a 2D scenario: the case of musical notation.

    PubMed

    Perea, Manuel; García-Chamorro, Cristina; Centelles, Arnau; Jiménez, María

    2013-07-01

    How does the cognitive system encode the location of objects in a visual scene? In the past decade, this question has attracted much attention in the field of visual-word recognition (e.g., "jugde" is perceptually very close to "judge"). Letter transposition effects have been explained in terms of perceptual uncertainty or shared "open bigrams". In the present study, we focus on note position coding in music reading (i.e., a 2D scenario). The usual way to display music is the staff (i.e., a set of 5 horizontal lines and their resultant 4 spaces). When reading musical notation, it is critical to identify not only each note (temporal duration), but also its pitch (y-axis) and its temporal sequence (x-axis). To examine note position coding, we employed a same-different task in which two briefly and consecutively presented staves contained four notes. The experiment was conducted with experts (musicians) and non-experts (non-musicians). For the "different" trials, the critical conditions involved staves in which two internal notes that were switched vertically, horizontally, or fully transposed--as well as the appropriate control conditions. Results revealed that note position coding was only approximate at the early stages of processing and that this encoding process was modulated by expertise. We examine the implications of these findings for models of object position encoding. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. FTM-West Model Results for Selected Fuel Treatment Scenarios

    Treesearch

    Andrew D. Kramp; Peter J. Ince

    2006-01-01

    This paper evaluated potential forest product market impacts in the U.S. West of increases in the supply of wood from thinnings to reduce fire hazard. Evaluations are done using the Fuel Treatment Market-West model for a set of hypothetical fuel treatment scenarios, which include stand-density-index (SDI) and thin-from-below (TFB) treatment regimes at alternative...

  3. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  4. Forecasts of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) off Chile under the A2 IPCC climate change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Claudio; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Barbieri, María Angela; Bernal, Claudio; Aranis, Antonio

    2015-05-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated the effects of climate change on both oceanographic conditions and the relative abundance and distribution of fisheries resources. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) fisheries using predictions of changes from global models (according to the NCAR model and IPCC emissions scenario A2), bioclimate envelope models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. The results show an SST trend of 0.0196 °C per year in the study area, equivalent to 0.98 °C for the simulation horizon and for a high CO2 emission scenario (A2). The bioclimate envelope models were developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly environmental and fisheries data. These data included the local relative abundance index of fish catch per unit effort (CPUE), corresponding to the total catch (kg) by 1000 hooks in a 1° latitude × 1° longitude fishing grid for swordfish and to the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (100 m3) in a 10‧ latitude × 10‧ longitude grid for common sardine. The environmental data included temporal (month), spatial (latitude) and thermal conditions (SST). In the first step of the bioclimate modelling performed in this study, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE. These relationships were then parameterised using general linear models (GLMs) to provide a robust forecasting tool. With this modelling approach, environmental variables explained 58.7% of the variation in the CPUE of swordfish and 60.6% of the variation in the CPUE of common sardine in the final GLMs. Using IDRISI GIS, these GLMs simulated monthly changes in the

  5. Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2°C global warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strada, Susanna; Noblet-Ducoudré Nathalie, de; Marc, Stéfanon

    2017-04-01

    Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al., 2015). The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global warming (1.5°C to a +2°C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified landscape under a +2°C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model, WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2°C scenario was selected among those proposed by the "Impact2C" project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century. WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate model LMDZ for PD (1971-2000) and the +2°C warming period for the LMDZ model (2028-2057). Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2°C global warming scenario, afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and LULCCs. During summer, the

  6. Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Newes, Emily K

    2017-12-05

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, andmore » provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.« less

  7. Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Newes, Emily K

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, andmore » provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.« less

  8. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

    2016-05-17

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

  9. NPE 2010 results - Independent performance assessment by simulated CTBT violation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, O.; Bönnemann, C.; Ceranna, L.; Gestermann, N.; Hartmann, G.; Plenefisch, T.

    2012-04-01

    earthquakes by seismological analysis. The remaining event at Black Thunder Mine, Wyoming, on 23 Oct at 21:15 UTC showed clear explosion characteristics. It caused also Infrasound detections at one station in Canada. An infrasonic one station localization algorithm led to event localization results comparable in precision to the teleseismic localization. However, the analysis of regional seismological stations gave the most accurate result giving an error ellipse of about 60 square kilometer. Finally a forward ATM simulation was performed with the candidate event as source in order to reproduce the original detection scenario. The ATM results showed a simulated station fingerprint in the IMS very similar to the fictitious detections given in the NPE 2010 scenario which is an additional confirmation that the event was correctly identified. The shown event analysis of the NPE 2010 serves as successful example for Data Fusion between the technology of radionuclide detection supported by ATM and seismological methodology as well as infrasound signal processing.

  10. Cost-effectiveness of alternative smoking cessation scenarios in Spain: results from the EQUIPTMOD.

    PubMed

    Trapero-Bertran, Marta; Muñoz, Celia; Coyle, Kathryn; Coyle, Doug; Lester-George, Adam; Leidl, Reiner; Németh, Bertalan; Cheung, Kei-Long; Pokhrel, Subhash; Lopez-Nicolás, Ángel

    2018-03-13

    To assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative smoking cessation scenarios from the perspective of the Spanish National Health Service (NHS). We used the European study on Quantifying Utility of Investment in Protection from Tobacco model (EQUIPTMOD), a Markov-based state transition economic model, to estimate the return on investment (ROI) of: (a) the current provision of smoking cessation services (brief physician advice and printed self-helped material + smoking ban and tobacco duty at current levels); and (b) four alternative scenarios to complement the current provision: coverage of proactive telephone calls; nicotine replacement therapy (mono and combo) [prescription nicotine replacement therapy (Rx NRT)]; varenicline (standard duration); or bupropion. A rate of 3% was used to discount life-time costs and benefits. Spain. Adult smoking population (16+ years). Health-care costs associated with treatment of smoking attributable diseases (lung cancer, coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary infection and stroke); intervention costs; quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs and outcomes were summarized using various ROI estimates. The cost of implementing the current provision of smoking cessation services is approximately €61 million in the current year. This translates to 18 quitters per 1000 smokers and a life-time benefit-cost ratio of 5, compared with no such provision. All alternative scenarios were dominant (cost-saving: less expensive to run and generated more QALYs) from the life-time perspective, compared with the current provision. The life-time benefit-cost ratios were: 1.87 (proactive telephone calls); 1.17 (Rx NRT); 2.40 (varenicline-standard duration); and bupropion (2.18). The results remained robust in the sensitivity analysis. According to the EQUIPTMOD modelling tool it would be cost-effective for the Spanish authorities to expand the reach of existing GP brief interventions for smoking cessation, provide pro-active telephone

  11. On the rapid and efficient divulgation of monitoring results in landslide emergency scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, Daniele; Allasia, Paolo; Manconi, Andrea; Bertolo, Davide

    2014-05-01

    In last decades, the availability of several technological systems to monitor different physical parameters that can be used to control a landslide evolution recorded an exponential growth. In particular, surficial and deep-seated displacements of an instable area, as well as meteorological or hydrological parameters can be nowadays acquired with high spatial and temporal resolutions. As a consequence, the application of complex monitoring systems produces large amounts of data. While this can be considered an important progress in the field of landslide monitoring applications, the availability of large volumes of high resolution and multiparametric information implies important challenges. In this context, two main criticalities are: i) the integrated management of dataset produced by different monitoring systems and ii) the correct divulgation of monitoring results. In this work, we present the results of a real case-study relevant to a complex emergency scenario, i.e. the Mont de La Saxe landslide, a large rockslide (with an estimated volume or more than 8 million of cubic meters) that threatens La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). We developed a web-based system based on the ADVICE algorithm (Allasia et al., 2013) in order to manage several data sources. The system collects, analyzes and publishes the results obtained by monitoring instrumentations in near-real-time at each new measurement cycle. Moreover, by collecting all the data in an unique web-based platform reduces the problems of compatibility amongst different monitoring systems, which usually rely on customized software for the data processing, delaying the comparative analysis comparison amongst different data sources. This is indeed a crucial task for decision makers, in particular during the emergency phases. In addition, by using the developed web-based platform we aimed at coping with another important task, often not considered and

  12. Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios - project overview and first results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerzen, Tatjana; Mainul Hoque, M.; Wilken, Volker; Minkwitz, David; Schlüter, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is the European Satellite Based Augmentation Service (SBAS) that provides value added services, in particular to Safety of Live (SoL) users of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In the frame of the European GNSS Evolution Programme (EGEP), ESA has launched several activities, which are aiming to support the design, development and qualification of the future operational EGNOS infrastructure and associated services. The ionosphere is the part of the upper Earth's atmosphere between about 50 km and 1000 km above the Earth's surface, which contains sufficient free electrons to cause strong impact on radio signal propagation. Therefore, treatment of the ionosphere is a critical issue to guarantee the EGNOS system performance. In order to conduct the EGNOS end-to-end performance simulations and to assure the capability for maintaining integrity of the EGNOS system especially during ionospheric storm conditions, Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (IRSs) are introduced by ESA. The project Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (DAIS) - aims to generate improved EGNOS IRSs by combining space borne and ground based GNSS observations. The main focus of this project is to demonstrate that ionospheric radio occultation (IRO) measurements can significantly contribute to fill data gaps in GNSS ground networks (particularly in Africa and over the oceans) when generating the IRSs. The primary tasks are the calculation and validation of time series of IRSs (i.e. TEC maps) by a 3D assimilation approach that combines IRO and ground based GNSS measurements with an ionospheric background model in an optimal way. In the first phase of the project we selected appropriate test periods, one presenting perturbed and the other one - nominal ionospheric conditions, collected and filtered the corresponding data. We defined and developed an applicable technique for the 3D assimilation and applied

  13. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally

    2014-06-01

    This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken heremore » is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.« less

  14. Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

    2017-04-01

    The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

  15. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The

  16. Results of using the NSTX-U Plasma Control System for scenario development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyer, M. D.; Battaglia, D. J.; Gates, D. A.; Gerhardt, S.; Menard, J.; Mueller, D.; Myers, C. E.; Ferron, J.; Sabbagh, S.; NSTX-U Team

    2016-10-01

    To best use the new capabilities of NSTX-U (e.g., higher toroidal field and additional, more distributed heating and current drive sources) and to achieve the operational goals of the program, major upgrades to the Plasma Control System have been made. These include improvements to vertical control, real-time equilibrium reconstruction, and plasma boundary shape control and the addition of flexible algorithms for beam modulation and gas injection to control the upgraded actuators in real-time, enabling their use in algorithms for stored energy and profile control. Control system commissioning activities have so far focused on vertical position and shape control. The upgraded controllers have been used to explore the vertical stability limits in inner wall limited and diverted discharges, and control of X-point and strike point locations has been demonstrated and is routinely used. A method for controlling the mid-plane inner gap, a challenge for STs, has also been added to improve reproducible control of diverted discharges. A supervisory shutdown handling algorithm has also been commissioned to ramp the plasma down and safely turn off actuators after an event such as loss of vertical control. Use of the upgrades has contributed to achieving 1MA, 0.65T scenarios with greater than 1s pulse length. Work supported by U.S. D.O.E. Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466.

  17. "Beauty contest" indicator of cognitive ability and free riding strategies. Results from a scenario experiment about pandemic flu immunization.

    PubMed

    Rönnerstrand, Björn

    2017-03-01

    High immunization coverage rates are desirable in order to reduce total morbidity and mortality rates, but it may also provide an incentive for herd immunity free riding strategies. The aim of this paper was to investigate the link between cognitive ability and vaccination intention in a hypothetical scenario experiment about Avian Flu immunization. A between-subject scenario experiment was utilized to examine the willingness to undergo vaccination when the vaccination coverage was proclaimed to be 36, 62 and 88%. Respondents were later assigned to a "Beauty contest" experiment, an experimental game commonly used to investigate individual's cognitive ability. Results show that there was a significant negative effect of the proclaimed vaccination uptake among others on the vaccination intention. However, there were no significant association between the "Beauty contest" indicator of cognitive ability and the use of herd immunity free riding strategies.

  18. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  19. Evolution of Fuel-Air and Contaminant Clouds Resulting from a Cruise Missile Explosion Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, A S; Kul, A L

    2005-06-22

    A low-mach-number hydrodynamics model has been used to simulate the evolution of a fuel-air mixture and contaminant cloud resulting from the detonation of a cruise missile. The detonation has been assumed to be non-nuclear. The cloud evolution has been carried out to a time of 5.5 seconds. At this time the contaminant has completely permeated the initial fuel-air mixture cloud.

  20. How sleep problems contribute to simulator sickness: Preliminary results from a realistic driving scenario.

    PubMed

    Altena, Ellemarije; Daviaux, Yannick; Sanz-Arigita, Ernesto; Bonhomme, Emilien; de Sevin, Étienne; Micoulaud-Franchi, Jean-Arthur; Bioulac, Stéphanie; Philip, Pierre

    2018-04-17

    Virtual reality and simulation tools enable us to assess daytime functioning in environments that simulate real life as close as possible. Simulator sickness, however, poses a problem in the application of these tools, and has been related to pre-existing health problems. How sleep problems contribute to simulator sickness has not yet been investigated. In the current study, 20 female chronic insomnia patients and 32 female age-matched controls drove in a driving simulator covering realistic city, country and highway scenes. Fifty percent of the insomnia patients as opposed to 12.5% of controls reported excessive simulator sickness leading to experiment withdrawal. In the remaining participants, patients with insomnia showed overall increased levels of oculomotor symptoms even before driving, while nausea symptoms further increased after driving. These results, as well as the realistic simulation paradigm developed, give more insight on how vestibular and oculomotor functions as well as interoceptive functions are affected in insomnia. Importantly, our results have direct implications for both the actual driving experience and the wider context of deploying simulation techniques to mimic real life functioning, in particular in those professions often exposed to sleep problems. © 2018 European Sleep Research Society.

  1. What Factors Moderate Self-Other Discrepancies in Decision Making? Results from a Vaccination Scenario.

    PubMed

    Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; van der Pligt, Joop

    2016-09-20

    When we make risky decisions for others, we tend to follow social norms about risks. This often results in making different decisions for others than we would make for ourselves in a similar situation (i.e., self-other discrepancies). In an experiment, we investigated self-other discrepancies in young adults' decisions to purchase a vaccine against a sexually-transmitted virus for themselves or for another person (i.e., the target of the decision). When the target's preferences were in line with social norms, surrogates showed large self-other discrepancies in line with these norms. When the target's preferences were contrary to social norms, surrogates did not show self-other discrepancies in line with these preferences; instead they still followed social norms, F(1, 140) = 21.45, p < .001, η p 2 = .13. Surrogates with lower numeracy, F(2, 128) = 3.44, p = .035, η p 2 = .05, and higher empathy, F(2, 128) = 3.72, p = .027, η p 2 = .06, showed self-other discrepancies more in line with the target's preferences, even when these were contrary to the norm. Surrogates whose own risk attitudes were contrary to social norms showed larger self-other discrepancies, F(1, 128) = 5.38, p = .022, η p 2 = .04. These results demonstrate that perceived social norms about risk can predict self-other discrepancies in risky decisions, even when the target's preferences are known and at odds with the social norm. Further, the surrogates' numeracy, empathy, and propensity to take risks influence the extent to which risky decisions for others resemble risky decisions for oneself.

  2. Older Adult Experience of Online Diagnosis: Results From a Scenario-Based Think-Aloud Protocol

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Searching for online information to interpret symptoms is an increasingly prevalent activity among patients, even among older adults. As older adults typically have complex health care needs, their risk of misinterpreting symptoms via online self-diagnosis may be greater. However, limited research has been conducted with older adults in the areas of symptom interpretation and human-computer interaction. Objective The intent of the study was to describe the processes that a sample of older adults may use to diagnose symptoms online as well as the processes that predict accurate diagnosis. Methods We conducted a series of “think-aloud” protocols with 79 adults aged 50 years or older. Participants received one of two vignettes that depicted symptoms of illness. Participants talked out loud about their thoughts and actions while attempting to diagnose the symptoms with and without the help of common Internet tools (Google and WebMD’s Symptom Checker). Think-aloud content was categorized using an adapted Q-sort and general inductive approach. We then compared the think-aloud content of participants who were accurate in their diagnosis with those who were not. Results Nineteen descriptive codes were identified from the think-aloud content. The codes touched upon Web navigation, attempts to organize and evaluate online health information, and strategies to diagnose symptoms. Participants most frequently relied on a strategy where they reviewed and then rejected the online diagnoses if they contained additional symptoms than those that were depicted in the vignette. Finally, participants who were inaccurate in their diagnosis reported being confused by the diagnosis task, lacking confidence in their diagnosis, and using their past experiences with illness to guide diagnosis more frequently than those participants who accurately diagnosed the symptoms. Conclusions Older adult participants tended to rely on matching strategies to interpret symptoms, but many

  3. Using Formative Scenario Analysis approach for landslide risk analysis in a relatively scarce data environment: preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zumpano, Veronica; Balteanu, Dan; Mazzorana, Bruno; Micu, Mihai

    2014-05-01

    It is increasingly important to provide to stakeholders tools that will enable them to better understand what is the state of the environment in which they live and manage and to help them to make decisions that aim to minimize the consequences of hydro-meteorological hazards. Very often, however, quantitative studies, especially for large areas, are difficult to perform. This is due to the fact that unfortunately isn't often possible to have the numerous data required to perform the analysis. In addition it has been proven that in scenario analysis, often deterministic approaches are not able to detect some features of the system revealing unexpected behaviors, and resulting in underestimation or omission of some impact factors. Here are presented some preliminary results obtained applying Formative Scenario Analysis that can be considered a possible solution for landslide risk analysis in cases where the data needed even if existent are not available. This method is an expert based approach that integrates intuitions and qualitative evaluations of impact factors with the quantitative analysis of relations between these factors: a group of experts with different but pertinent expertise, determine (by a rating procedure) quantitative relations between these factors, then through mathematical operations the scenarios describing a certain state of the system are obtained. The approach is applied to Buzau County (Romania), an area belonging to the Curvature Romanian Carpathians and Subcarpathians, a region strongly affected by environmental hazards. The region has been previously involved in numerous episodes of severe hydro-meteorological events that caused considerable damages (1975, 2005, 2006). In this application we are referring only to one type of landslides that can be described as shallow and medium-seated with a (mainly) translational movement that can go from slide to flow. The material involved can be either soil, debris or a mixture of both, in Romanian

  4. Downscaling of sea level and fluxes in the Malacca and Singapore Straits using A2 scenario projections of AR4 GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Koshebutsky, Volodymyr; Maderich, Vladimir; Thompson, Bijoy

    2013-04-01

    IPCC-coordinated work has been completed within Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to project climate and ocean variables for the 21st century using coupled atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs). Resolution of the GCMs is not sufficient to resolve local features of narrow Malacca and Singapore Straits, having complex coastal line and bathymetry; therefore, dynamical downscaling of ocean variables from the global grid to the regional scale is advisable using ocean models, such as Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). ROMS is customized for the domain centered on the Singapore and Malacca Straits, extending from 98°E to 109°E and 6°S to 14°N. Following IPCC methodology, the modelling is done for the past reference period 1961-1990, and then for the 21st century projections; subsequently, established past and projected trends and variability of ocean parameters are inter-compared. Boundary conditions for the past reference period are extracted from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), while the projections are made using A2 scenario runs of ECHAM5 and CCSM3 GCMs. Atmospheric forcing for ROMS is downscaled with WRF using ERA-40 dataset for the past period, and outputs of atmospheric variables of respective GCMs for the projections. ROMS-downscaled regional sea level change during 1961-1990, corrected for the global thermosteric effect, land-ice melting and Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) effect, corresponds to a mean total trend of 1.52 mm/year, which is higher than the global estimate 1.25 mm/year and observed global sea-level rise (1.44 mm/year) for the same period. Local linear trend in the Singapore Strait (0.9 mm/year) corresponds to the observed trend at Victoria Dock tide gauge (1.1 mm/year) for the past period. Mean discharges through the Karimata, Malacca and Singapore Straits are 0.9, 0.21 and 0.12 Sv, respectively, fall in the range of observations and recent model estimates. A2 scenario projections using ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 for

  5. About the Need of Combining Power Market and Power Grid Model Results for Future Energy System Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mende, Denis; Böttger, Diana; Löwer, Lothar; Becker, Holger; Akbulut, Alev; Stock, Sebastian

    2018-02-01

    The European power grid infrastructure faces various challenges due to the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES). To conduct investigations on interactions between power generation and the power grid, models for the power market as well as for the power grid are necessary. This paper describes the basic functionalities and working principles of both types of models as well as steps to couple power market results and the power grid model. The combination of these models is beneficial in terms of gaining realistic power flow scenarios in the grid model and of being able to pass back results of the power flow and restrictions to the market model. Focus is laid on the power grid model and possible application examples like algorithms in grid analysis, operation and dynamic equipment modelling.

  6. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

    PubMed Central

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

    2018-01-01

    Abstract The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land‐use change (LUC). Land‐based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI‐Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land‐use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI‐Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low‐emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

  7. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

    2018-03-01

    The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

  8. Projected SST trends across the Caribbean Sea based on PRECIS downscaling of ECHAM4, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nurse, Leonard A.; Charlery, John L.

    2016-01-01

    The Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are highly sensitive to the projected impacts of global climate change. The countries bordering the Caribbean Sea depend heavily on coastal and marine assets as a major source of livelihood support. Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are known to be associated with coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other phenomena that threaten livelihoods in the region. The paucity of SST systematic observations in both the Caribbean Sea and adjoining Western Atlantic waters is a limiting factor in the projection of future climate change impacts on the region's marine resources. Remote sensing of SST by satellites began only within the last three decades and although the data collected so far might be insufficient to provide conclusive definitions of long-term SST variations in the Caribbean waters, these data along with the output from climate model simulations provide a useful basis for gaining further insights into plausible SST futures under IPCC SRES scenarios. In this paper, we examine the recent SST records from the NESDIS AVHRR satellite data and NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature V2 and provide a comparative analysis of projected SST changes for the Caribbean Sea up to the end of the twenty-first century, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios' simulations of the sea surface skin temperatures (SSsT) using the Hadley Centre's regional model, PRECIS. The implications of these projected SST changes for bleaching of coral reefs, one of the region's most valuable marine resource, and for rainfall are also discussed.

  9. Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish.

    PubMed

    Komatsu, Teruhisa; Fukuda, Masahiro; Mikami, Atsuko; Mizuno, Shizuha; Kantachumpoo, Attachai; Tanoue, Hideaki; Kawamiya, Michio

    2014-08-30

    Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  10. Leaching behaviour of incineration bottom ash in a reuse scenario: 12years-field data vs. lab test results.

    PubMed

    Di Gianfilippo, Martina; Hyks, Jiri; Verginelli, Iason; Costa, Giulia; Hjelmar, Ole; Lombardi, Francesco

    2018-03-01

    Several types of standardized laboratory leaching tests have been developed during the past few decades to evaluate the leaching behaviour of waste materials as a function of different parameters, such as the pH of the eluate and the liquid to solid ratio. However, the link between the results of these tests and leaching data collected from the field (e.g. in disposal or reuse scenarios) is not always straightforward. In this work, we compare data obtained from an on-going large scale field trial, in which municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash is being tested as road sub-base material, with the results obtained from percolation column and pH-dependence laboratory leaching tests carried out on the bottom ash at the beginning of the test. The comparisons reported in this paper show that for soluble substances (e.g. Cl, K and SO 4 ), percolation column tests can provide a good indication of the release expected in the field with deviations usually within a factor of 3. For metals characterized by a solubility-controlled release, i.e. that depends more on eluate pH than the liquid to solid ratio applied, the results of pH-dependence tests describe more accurately the eluate concentration trends observed in the field with deviations that in most cases (around 80%) are within one order of magnitude (see e.g. Al and Cd). The differences between field and lab-scale data might be in part ascribed to the occurrence in the field of weathering reactions (e.g. carbonation) but also to microbial decomposition of organic matter that modifying leachate pH affect the solubility of several constituents (e.g. Ca, Ba and Cr). Besides, weathering reactions can result in enhanced adsorption of fulvic acids to iron/aluminum (hydr)oxides, leading to a decrease in the leaching of fulvic acids and hence of elements such as Cu, Ni and Pb that strongly depend on DOC leaching. Overall, this comparison shows that percolation column tests and pH-dependence tests can represent a reliable

  11. Improved operating scenarios of the DIII-D tokamak as a result of the addition of UNIX computer systems

    SciTech Connect

    Henline, P.A.

    1995-12-31

    The increased use of UNIX based computer systems for machine control, data handling and analysis has greatly enhanced the operating scenarios and operating efficiency of the DIII-D tokamak. This paper will describe some of these UNIX systems and their specific uses. These include the plasma control system, the electron cyclotron heating control system, the analysis of electron temperature and density measurements and the general data acquisition system (which is collecting over 130 Mbytes of data). The speed and total capability of these systems has dramatically affected the ability to operate DIII-D. The improved operating scenarios include better plasma shape controlmore » due to the more thorough MHD calculations done between shots and the new ability to see the time dependence of profile data as it relates across different spatial locations in the tokamak. Other analysis which engenders improved operating abilities will be described.« less

  12. Improved operating scenarios of the DIII-D tokamak as a result of the addition of UNIX computer systems

    SciTech Connect

    Henline, P.A.

    1995-10-01

    The increased use of UNIX based computer systems for machine control, data handling and analysis has greatly enhanced the operating scenarios and operating efficiency of the DRI-D tokamak. This paper will describe some of these UNIX systems and their specific uses. These include the plasma control system, the electron cyclotron heating control system, the analysis of electron temperature and density measurements and the general data acquisition system (which is collecting over 130 Mbytes of data). The speed and total capability of these systems has dramatically affected the ability to operate DIII-D. The improved operating scenarios include better plasma shape controlmore » due to the more thorough MHD calculations done between shots and the new ability to see the time dependence of profile data as it relates across different spatial locations in the tokamak. Other analysis which engenders improved operating abilities will be described.« less

  13. Results of extended plant tests using more realistic exposure scenarios for improving environmental risk assessment of veterinary pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Richter, Elisabeth; Berkner, Silvia; Ebert, Ina; Förster, Bernhard; Graf, Nadin; Herrchen, Monika; Kühnen, Ute; Römbke, Jörg; Simon, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Residues of veterinary medicinal products (VMPs) enter the environment via application of manure onto agricultural areas where in particular antibiotics can cause phytotoxicity. Terrestrial plant tests according to OECD guideline 208 are part of the environmental risk assessment of VMPs. However, this standard approach might not be appropriate for VMPs which form non-extractable residues or transformation products in manure and manure-amended soil. Therefore, a new test design with a more realistic exposure scenario via manure application is needed. This paper presents an extended plant test and its experimental verification with the veterinary antibiotics florfenicol and tylosin tartrate. With each substance, plant tests with four different types of application were conducted: standard tests according to OECD 208 and three tests with application of test substance via spiked manure either without storage, aerobically incubated, or anaerobically incubated for different time periods. In standard tests, the lowest NOEC was <0.06 mg/kg dry soil for florfenicol and 16.0 mg/kg dry soil for tylosin tartrate. Pre-tests showed that plant growth was not impaired at 22-g fresh manure/kg dry soil, which therefore was used for the final tests. The application of the test substances via freshly spiked as well as via aerobically incubated manure had no significant influence on the test results. Application of florfenicol via anaerobically incubated manure increased the EC10 by a factor up to 282 and 540 for half-maximum and for maximum incubation period, respectively. For tylosin tartrate, this factor amounted to 64 at half-maximum and 61 at maximum incubation period. The reduction of phytotoxicity was generally stronger when using cattle manure than pig manure and particularly in tests with cattle manure phytotoxicity decreased over the incubation period. The verification of the extended plant test showed that seedling emergence and growth are comparable to a standard OECD

  14. Interpreting energy scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  15. Changes in atmospheric sulfur burdens and concentrations and resulting radiative forcings under IPCC SRES emission scenarios for 1990-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pham, M.; Boucher, O.; Hauglustaine, D.

    2005-03-01

    Simulations of the global sulfur cycle under the IPCC SRES scenarios have been performed. Sulfur dioxide and sulfate burdens, as well as the direct and first indirect radiative forcing (RF) by sulfate aerosols only, are presented for the period 1990 to 2100. By 2100, global sulfur emission rates decline everywhere in all scenarios. At that time, the anthropogenic sulfate burden ranges from 0.34 to 1.03 times the 1990 value of 0.47 Tg S. Direct and indirect global and annually mean RFs relative to the year 1990 are near 0 or positive (range of -0.07 to 0.28 Wm-2 and 0.01 to 0.38 Wm-2 for the direct and indirect effects, respectively). For reference these forcings amount respectively to -0.42 and -0.79 Wm-2 in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions (around 1750). Sulfur aerosols will therefore induce a smaller cooling effect in 2100 than in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions. For the period 1990 to 2100, the forcing efficiencies (computed relatively to 1990) are fairly constant for the direct effect (around -160 W (g sulfate)-1). The forcing efficiencies for the indirect effect are around -200 and -100 W (g sulfate)-1 for negative and positive burden differences, respectively. This is due to a shift in regional patterns of emissions and a saturation in the indirect effect. The simulated annually averaged SO2 concentrations for A1B scenario in 2020 are close to air quality objectives for public health in some parts of Africa and exceed these objectives in some parts of China and Korea. Moreover, sulfate deposition rates are estimated to increase by 200% from the present level in East and Southeast Asia. This shows that Asia may experience in the future sulfur-related environmental and human health problems as important as Europe and the United States did in the 1970s.

  16. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  17. Potential for Carbon Sequestration in European Soils: Preliminary Estimates for Five Scenarios Using Results from Long-Term Experiments

    DOE Data Explorer

    Smith, P. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Powlson, D. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Glendining, M. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Smith, J. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK

    2003-01-01

    One of the main options for carbon mitigation identified by the IPCC is the sequestration of carbon in soils. In this paper we use statistical relationships derived from European long-term experiments to explore the potential for carbon sequestration in soils in the European Union. We examine five scenarios, namely (a) the amendment of arable soils with animal manure, (b) the amendment of arable soils with sewage sludge, (c) the incorporation of cereal straw into the soils in which it was grown, (d) the afforestation of surplus arable land through natural woodland regeneration, and (e) extensification of agriculture through ley-arable farming. Our calculations suggest only limited potential to increase soil carbon stocks over the next century by addition of animal manure, sewage sludge or straw (<15 Tg C y–1), but greater potential through extensification of agriculture (~40 Tg C y–1) or through the afforestation of surplus arable land (~50 Tg C y–1). We estimate that extensification could increase the total soil carbon stock of the European Union by 17%. Afforestation of 30% of present arable land would increase soil carbon stocks by about 8% over a century and would substitute up to 30 Tg C y–1 of fossil fuel carbon if the wood were used as biofuel. However, even the afforestation scenario, with the greatest potential for carbon mitigation, can sequester only 0.8% of annual global anthropogenic CO2-carbon. Our figures suggest that, although efforts in temperate agriculture can contribute to global carbon mitigation, the potential is small compared to that available through reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions by halting tropical and sub-tropical deforestation or by reducing fossil fuel burning.

  18. Scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  19. Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

    2009-04-01

    Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of

  20. Experimental Results From a 2kW Brayton Power Conversion Unit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hervol, David; Mason, Lee; Birchenough, Arthur

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents experimental test results from operation of a 2 kWe Brayton power conversion unit. The Brayton converter was developed for a solar dynamic power system flight experiment planned for the Mir Space Station in 1997. The flight experiment was cancelled, but the converter was tested at Glenn Research Center as part of the Solar Dynamic Ground Test Demonstration system which included a solar concentrator, heat receiver, and space radiator. In preparation for the current testing, the heat receiver was removed and replaced with an electrical resistance heater, simulating the thermal input of a steady-state nuclear source. The converter was operated over a full range of thermal input power levels and rotor speeds to generate an overall performance map. The converter unit will serve as the centerpiece of a Nuclear Electric Propulsion Testbed at Glenn. Future potential uses for the Testbed include high voltage electrical controller development, integrated electric thruster testing and advanced radiator demonstration testing to help guide high power Brayton technology development for Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP).

  1. Brief Communication: On the rapid and efficient monitoring results dissemination in landslide emergency scenarios: the Mont de La Saxe case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, D.; Manconi, A.; Allasia, P.; Bertolo, D.

    2015-09-01

    Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). Starting from the definition of actions and needs of the landslide management team, including scientists, technicians, civil protection operators, decision makers, and politicians, we show that sharing and disseminating ad hoc information simplifies the understanding of the landslide evolution, as well as the correct communication of the level of criticality.

  2. Brief Communication: On the rapid and efficient monitoring results dissemination in landslide emergency scenarios: the Mont de La Saxe case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, D.; Manconi, A.; Allasia, P.; Bertolo, D.

    2015-04-01

    Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe case study, a large rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). Starting from the definition of actions and needs of the Landslide Management Team, including scientists, technicians, civil protection operators, decision makers, and politicians, we show that sharing and disseminating ad hoc information simplifies the understanding of the landslide evolution, as well as the correct communication of the level of criticality.

  3. Projected impact of climate change in the North and Baltic Sea. Results from dynamical downscaling of global CMIP climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gröger, Matthias; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Sein, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    Climate models have predicted strongest climate change impact for the mid/high lattiude areas. Despite their importance, shelves seas (which are supposed to account for more than 20% of global marine primary production and for up to 50% of total marine carbon uptake) are not adequately resolved in climate models. In this study, the global ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC has been setup with an enhanced resolution over the NW European shelf (~10 km in the southern North Sea). For a realistic representation of atmosphere-ocean interactions the regional model REMO has been implemented. Thus, this model configuration allows a physically consistent simulation of climate signal propagation from the North Atlantic over the North Sea into the Baltic Sea since it interactively simulates mass and energy fluxes between the three basins. The results indicate substantial changes in hydrographic and biological conditions for the end of the 21st Century. A freshening by about 0.75 psu together with a surface warming of ~2.0 K and associated circulation changes in and outside the North Sea reduce biological production on the NW European shelf by ~35%. This reduction is twice as strong as the reduction in the open ocean. The underlying mechanism is a spatially well confined stratification feedback along the shelf break and the continental slope which reduces the winter mixed layer by locally more than 200 m compared to current conditions. As a consequence winter nutrient supply from the deep Atlantic declines between 40 and 50%. In addition to this, the volume transport of water and salt into the North Sea will slightly reduce (~10%) during summer. At the end of the 21st Century the North Sea appears nearly decoupled from the deep Atlantic. The projected decline in biological productivity and subsequent decrease of phytoplankton (by averaged 25%) will probably negatively affect the local fish stock in the North Sea. In the Baltic Sea the climate

  4. Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul

    2012-01-01

    Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006–09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen

  5. Mid-term results of aortic valve surgery in redo scenarios in the current practice: results from the multicentre European RECORD (REdo Cardiac Operation Research Database) initiative†.

    PubMed

    Onorati, Francesco; Biancari, Fausto; De Feo, Marisa; Mariscalco, Giovanni; Messina, Antonio; Santarpino, Giuseppe; Santini, Francesco; Beghi, Cesare; Nappi, Giannantonio; Troise, Giovanni; Fischlein, Theodor; Passerone, Giancarlo; Heikkinen, Juni; Faggian, Giuseppe

    2015-02-01

    Although commonly reported as single-centre experiences, redo aortic valve replacement (RAVR) has overall acceptable results. Nevertheless, trans-catheter aortic valve replacement has recently questioned the efficacy of RAVR. Early-to-mid-term results and determinants of mortality in 711 cases of RAVR from seven European institutions were assessed in the entire population and in selected high-risk subgroups [elderly >75 years, urgent/emergent procedures, preoperative New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional Class IV and endocarditis]. Hospital mortality was 5.1%, major re-entry cardiovascular complications (MRCVCs) 4.9%, low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) 15.3%, stroke 6.6%, acute respiratory failure (ARF) 10.6%, acute renal insufficiency (ARI) 19.3% and need for continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) 7.2%, transfusions 66.9% and for permanent pacemaker (PMK) 12.7%. Mid-term survival, freedom from acute heart failure (AHF), reinterventions, stroke and thrombo-embolisms were 77.2 ± 2.7, 84.4 ± 2.6, 97.2 ± 0.8, 97.2 ± 0.9 and 96.3 ± 1.2%, respectively; 87.5% of patients were in NYHA functional Class I-II. Preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction of <30% [odds ratio (OR) 8.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-35.6], MRCVCs (OR 20.9, 95% CI 5.6-78.3), cardiopulmonary bypass time (OR 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.1), perioperative LCOS (OR 17.2, 95% CI 5.1-57.4) and ARI (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.5-18.1) predicted hospital death. Endocarditis (OR 7.5, 95% CI 2.9-19.1), preoperative NYHA functional Class IV (OR 4.7, 95% CI 1.0-24.0), combined RAVR + mitral surgery (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.5-17.3) and AHF at follow-up (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.3-6.0) predicted late death at the Cox proportional hazard regression model. Elderly >75 years had similar hospital mortality (P = 0.06) and major morbidity, except for a higher need for PMK (P = 0.03), as well as comparable mid-term survival (P = 0.89), freedom from AHF (P = 0.81), reinterventions (P = 0.63), stroke (P = 0.21) and thrombo

  6. Translating theory into practice: results of a 2-year trial for the LEAD programme.

    PubMed

    Shelton, D

    2008-05-01

    This paper presents data for 2 years of a continuing study aimed to reduce the risk of first-time involvement by minority youth with the juvenile justice system. A quasi-experimental design was used to test a 14-week expressive art curriculum (LEAD: leadership, education, achievement and development) implemented in two rural communities. A total of 70 African American youth participated in the programme over a 2-year period. Pre- and post-test differences were examined for protective factors, behavioural self-control, self-esteem and resilience measures. When compared with the after-school programme (control group), youth in the LEAD programme in both communities had more dramatic increases in post-test scores following the intervention. The combined data from year 1 and year 2 provide positive findings in support of LEAD as a prevention programme for young offenders. The placement of the programme within an African American church in year 2 improved the processes of the LEAD programme and seemed to provide a better fit with the original design of the programme, highlighting the importance of the context, in which the programme was provided.

  7. A 2-Year Holistic Health and Stress Intervention: Results of an RCT in Clergy.

    PubMed

    Proeschold-Bell, Rae Jean; Turner, Elizabeth L; Bennett, Gary G; Yao, Jia; Li, Xiang-Fang; Eagle, David E; Meyer, Rachel A; Williams, Redford B; Swift, Robin Y; Moore, H Edgar; Kolkin, Melanie A; Weisner, Carl C; Rugani, Katherine M; Hough, Holly J; Williams, Virginia P; Toole, David C

    2017-09-01

    This study sought to determine the effect of a 2-year, multicomponent health intervention (Spirited Life) targeting metabolic syndrome and stress simultaneously. An RCT using a three-cohort multiple baseline design was conducted in 2010-2014. Participants were United Methodist clergy in North Carolina, U.S., in 2010, invited based on occupational status. Of invited 1,745 clergy, 1,114 consented, provided baseline data, and were randomly assigned to immediate intervention (n=395), 1-year waitlist (n=283), or 2-year waitlist (n=436) cohorts for a 48-month trial duration. The 2-year intervention consisted of personal goal setting and encouragement to engage in monthly health coaching, an online weight loss intervention, a small grant, and three workshops delivering stress management and theological content supporting healthy behaviors. Participants were not blinded to intervention. Trial outcomes were metabolic syndrome (primary) and self-reported stress and depressive symptoms (secondary). Intervention effects were estimated in 2016 in an intention-to-treat framework using generalized estimating equations with adjustment for baseline level of the outcome and follow-up time points. Log-link Poisson generalized estimating equations with robust SEs was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) for binary outcomes; mean differences were used for continuous/score outcomes. Baseline prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 50.9% and depression was 11.4%. The 12-month intervention effect showed a benefit for metabolic syndrome (PR=0.86, 95% CI=0.79, 0.94, p<0.001). This benefit was sustained at 24 months of intervention (PR=0.88; 95% CI=0.78, 1.00, p=0.04). There was no significant effect on depression or stress scores. The Spirited Life intervention improved metabolic syndrome prevalence in a population of U.S. Christian clergy and sustained improvements during 24 months of intervention. These findings offer support for long-duration behavior change interventions and population

  8. Efficacy and Efficiency of Webcast Orientations Versus Live Resident Orientations: Results of a 2-Year Survey

    PubMed Central

    Andolsek, Kathryn M.; Murphy, Gwen; Pinheiro, Sandro; Petrusa, Emil; Tuck, Tammy; Weinerth, John

    2010-01-01

    Background Beginning a graduate medical education training program is associated with a steep learning curve for incoming residents. Objective To compare the efficacy and efficiency of live versus webcast formats for Institutional Orientation. Methods This 2-year non-blinded study, with a nonrandomized cohort, compares outcomes for trainees oriented Summer 2005 in a ‘‘live-lecture’’ format with trainees oriented Summer 2006 using a webcast format. Outcomes include posttest success, the time required, presentation quality and utility, and cost. Results In 2005, 249 trainees attended the live orientation. Of the 211 who completed the posttest; 132 (63%) passed it within 3 attempts. Of the 241 trainees in 2006, 236 completed the posttest. Of these, 215 (91%) passed it within 3 attempts. Compared to the live-lecture cohort, the webcast cohort rated the posttest as more difficult. Despite performing better, significantly fewer trainees in the webcast cohort rated the posttest as “appropriate” (χ2 =  5 28.57, df 5 1, P , .001). There were no significant differences between the 2 groups on their perceptions of quality and utility of the presentations. While the first year cost of the webcast exceeded that of live lectures, the amortized cost was nearly identical to the live-lecture costs. Discussion As corroborated by resident comments, the web-based approach was more effective because it provided trainees flexibility regarding when to study, options on how to view the material, and opportunities to review it if needed for mastery. We plan to continue using the webcast strategy, revising the content as needed. PMID:21975900

  9. Characterization of cellular protective effects of ATP13A2/PARK9 expression and alterations resulting from pathogenic mutants.

    PubMed

    Covy, Jason P; Waxman, Elisa A; Giasson, Benoit I

    2012-12-01

    Mutations in ATP13A2, which encodes a lysosomal P-type ATPase of unknown function, cause an autosomal recessive parkinsonian syndrome. With mammalian cells, we show that ATP13A2 expression protects against manganese and nickel toxicity, in addition to proteasomal, mitochondrial, and oxidative stress. Consistent with a recessive mode of inheritance of gene defects, disease-causing mutations F182L and G504R are prone to misfolding and do not protect against manganese and nickel toxicity because they are unstable as a result of degradation via the endoplasmic reticulum-associated degradation (ERAD)-proteasome system. The protective effects of ATP13A2 expression are not due to inhibition of apoptotic pathways or a reduction in typical stress pathways, insofar as these pathways are still activated in challenged ATP13A2-expressing cells; however, these cells display a dramatic reduction in the accumulation of oxidized and damaged proteins. These data indicate that, contrary to a previous suggestion, ATP13A2 is unlikely to convey cellular resilience simply by acting as a lysosomal manganese transporter. Consistent with the recent identification of an ATP13A2 recessive mutation in Tibetan terriers that develop neurodegeneration with neuronal ceroid lipofucinoses, our data suggest that ATP13A2 may function to import a cofactor required for the function of a lysosome enzyme(s). Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.; Cogo, S.; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, A.

    2008-09-01

    This study is based on 30-year long simulations of the wind-wave field in the Mediterranean Sea carried out with the WAM model. Wave fields have been computed for the 2071-2100 period of the A2, B2 emission scenarios and for the 1961-1990 period of the present climate (REF). The wave model has been forced by the wind field computed by a regional climate model with 50 km resolution. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. The only exception is the presence of higher SWH extremes in the central Mediterranean during summer for the A2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  11. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  12. The MATROSHKA experiment: results and comparison from extravehicular activity (MTR-1) and intravehicular activity (MTR-2A/2B) exposure.

    PubMed

    Berger, Thomas; Bilski, Paweł; Hajek, Michael; Puchalska, Monika; Reitz, Günther

    2013-12-01

    Astronauts working and living in space are exposed to considerably higher doses and different qualities of ionizing radiation than people on Earth. The multilateral MATROSHKA (MTR) experiment, coordinated by the German Aerospace Center, represents the most comprehensive effort to date in radiation protection dosimetry in space using an anthropomorphic upper-torso phantom used for radiotherapy treatment planning. The anthropomorphic upper-torso phantom maps the radiation distribution as a simulated human body installed outside (MTR-1) and inside different compartments (MTR-2A: Pirs; MTR-2B: Zvezda) of the Russian Segment of the International Space Station. Thermoluminescence dosimeters arranged in a 2.54 cm orthogonal grid, at the site of vital organs and on the surface of the phantom allow for visualization of the absorbed dose distribution with superior spatial resolution. These results should help improve the estimation of radiation risks for long-term human space exploration and support benchmarking of radiation transport codes.

  13. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  14. Public disclosure to improve physical education in an urban school district: results from a 2-year quasi-experimental study

    PubMed Central

    Vittinghoff, Eric; Linchey, Jennifer K.; Madsen, Kristine A.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Many elementary schools have policies requiring a minimum amount of physical education (PE). However, few schools comply with local/state PE policy and little is known about how to improve adherence. We evaluated changes in PE among 5th-grade classes, following participatory action research efforts to improve PE quantity and policy compliance that focused on publically disclosing PE data. METHODS Data were collected at 20 San Francisco public elementary schools in the spring of 2011 and 2013. PE schedules were collected and PE classes were directly observed (2011, N = 30 teachers; 2013, N = 33 teachers). Data on the proportion of schools meeting state PE mandates in 2011 were shared within the school district and disclosed to the general public in 2012. RESULTS From 2011 to 2013, PE increased by 11 minutes/week based on teachers’ schedules (95% CI: 3.0, 19.6) and by 14 minutes/week (95% CI: 1.9, 26.0) based on observations. The proportion of schools meeting the state PE mandate increased from 20% to 30% (p = .27). CONCLUSIONS Positive changes in PE were seen over a 2-year period following the public disclosure of data that highlighted poor PE policy compliance. Public disclosure could be a method for ensuring greater PE policy adherence. PMID:26201757

  15. A Paleolithic-type diet results in iodine deficiency: a 2-year randomized trial in postmenopausal obese women.

    PubMed

    Manousou, S; Stål, M; Larsson, C; Mellberg, C; Lindahl, B; Eggertsen, R; Hulthén, L; Olsson, T; Ryberg, M; Sandberg, S; Nyström, H F

    2018-01-01

    Different diets are used for weight loss. A Paleolithic-type diet (PD) has beneficial metabolic effects, but two of the largest iodine sources, table salt and dairy products, are excluded. The objectives of this study were to compare 24-h urinary iodine concentration (24-UIC) in subjects on PD with 24-UIC in subjects on a diet according to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR) and to study if PD results in a higher risk of developing iodine deficiency (ID), than NNR diet. A 2-year prospective randomized trial in a tertiary referral center where healthy postmenopausal overweight or obese women were randomized to either PD (n=35) or NNR diet (n=35). Dietary iodine intake, 24-UIC, 24-h urinary iodine excretion (24-UIE), free thyroxin (FT4), free triiodothyronine (FT3) and thyrotropin (TSH) were measured at baseline, 6 and 24 months. Completeness of urine sampling was monitored by para-aminobenzoic acid and salt intake by urinary sodium. At baseline, median 24-UIC (71.0 μg/l) and 24-UIE (134.0 μg/d) were similar in the PD and NNR groups. After 6 months, 24-UIC had decreased to 36.0 μg/l (P=0.001) and 24-UIE to 77.0 μg/d (P=0.001) in the PD group; in the NNR group, levels were unaltered. FT4, TSH and FT3 were similar in both groups, except for FT3 at 6 months being lower in PD than in NNR group. A PD results in a higher risk of developing ID, than a diet according to the NNR. Therefore, we suggest iodine supplementation should be considered when on a PD.

  16. FHWA scenario planning guidebook

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework to develop a scenario planning approach tailored to th...

  17. The impact of different scenarios for intermittent bladder catheterization on health state utilities: results from an internet-based time trade-off survey.

    PubMed

    Averbeck, Márcio Augusto; Krassioukov, Andrei; Thiruchelvam, Nikesh; Madersbacher, Helmut; Bøgelund, Mette; Igawa, Yasuhiko

    2018-06-08

    Intermittent catheterization (IC) is the gold standard for bladder management in patients with chronic urinary retention. Despite its medical benefits, IC-users experience a negative impact on their quality of life (QoL). For health economics based decision making, this impact is normally measured using generic QoL measures (such as EQ-5D) that estimate a single utility score which can be used to calculate Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). But these generic measures may not be sensitive to all relevant aspects of QoL affected by intermittent catheters. This study used alternative methods to estimate the health state utilities associated with different scenarios: using a multiple-use catheter, one-time-use catheter, pre-lubricated one-time-use catheter, and pre-lubricated one-time-use catheter with one less urinary tract infection (UTI) per year. Health state utilities were elicited through an internet-based Time Trade-Off (TTO) survey in adult volunteers representing the general population in Canada and the UK. Health states were developed to represent the catheters based on the following four attributes: steps and time needed for IC process, pain and the frequency of UTIs. The survey was completed by 956 respondents. One-time-use catheters, pre-lubricated one-time-use catheters and ready-to-use catheters were preferred to multiple-use catheters. The utility gains were associated with the following features: one-time-use (Canada: +0.013, UK: +0.021), ready-to-use (all: +0.017), and one less UTI/year (all: +0.011). Internet-based survey responders may have valued health states differently than the rest of the population: this might be a source of bias. Steps and time needed for the IC process, pain related to IC, and the frequency of UTIs have a significant impact on IC related utilities. These values could be incorporated into a cost utility analysis.

  18. Emission-Line Galaxies from the PEARS Hubble Ultra Deep Field: A 2-D Detection Method and First Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gardner, J. P.; Straughn, Amber N.; Meurer, Gerhardt R.; Pirzkal, Norbert; Cohen, Seth H.; Malhotra, Sangeeta; Rhoads, james; Windhorst, Rogier A.; Gardner, Jonathan P.; Hathi, Nimish P.; hide

    2007-01-01

    The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) grism PEARS (Probing Evolution And Reionization Spectroscopically) survey provides a large dataset of low-resolution spectra from thousands of galaxies in the GOODS North and South fields. One important subset of objects in these data are emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and we have investigated several different methods aimed at systematically selecting these galaxies. Here we present a new methodology and results of a search for these ELGs in the PEARS observations of the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF) using a 2D detection method that utilizes the observation that many emission lines originate from clumpy knots within galaxies. This 2D line-finding method proves to be useful in detecting emission lines from compact knots within galaxies that might not otherwise be detected using more traditional 1D line-finding techniques. We find in total 96 emission lines in the HUDF, originating from 81 distinct "knots" within 63 individual galaxies. We find in general that [0 1111 emitters are the most common, comprising 44% of the sample, and on average have high equivalent widths (70% of [0 1111 emitters having rest-frame EW> 100A). There are 12 galaxies with multiple emitting knots; several show evidence of variations in H-alpha flux in the knots, suggesting that the differing star formation properties across a single galaxy can in general be probed at redshifts approximately greater than 0.2 - 0.4. The most prevalent morphologies are large face-on spirals and clumpy interacting systems, many being unique detections owing to the 2D method described here, thus highlighting the strength of this technique.

  19. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  20. Progression of fibromyalgia: results from a 2-year observational fibromyalgia and chronic pain study in the US

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Edgar H; McElroy, Heather J; Udall, Margarita; Masters, Elizabeth T; Mann, Rachael M; Schaefer, Caroline P; Cappelleri, Joseph C; Clair, Andrew G; Hopps, Markay; Daniel, Shoshana R; Mease, Philip; Silverman, Stuart L; Staud, Roland

    2016-01-01

    Background A previous fibromyalgia (FM) research reports that 20%–47% of diagnosed patients may not meet the study definition of FM 1–2 years after diagnosis. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the progression of FM in a geographically diverse cohort over a 2-year time period. Methods This cohort study followed 226 subjects recruited online to assess FM and chronic widespread pain (CWP) diagnosis stability over time. At enrollment (baseline), subjects provided informed consent, completed an online questionnaire consisting of the London Fibromyalgia Epidemiology Study Screening Questionnaire to screen for CWP (bilateral pain above/below waist lasting ≥1 week in the past 3 months), visited a site for physician evaluation for FM, and completed a questionnaire with validated patient-reported outcome instruments. Subjects were classified into mutually exclusive groups: FM+CWP+ (screened positive for CWP and received physician diagnosis of FM), FM−CWP+ (screened positive for CWP but did not receive physician diagnosis of FM), and FM−CWP− (screened negative for CWP). Approximately 2 years later (follow-up), subjects were reassessed at the same study site and completed a questionnaire with the same patient-reported outcomes. Results Seventy-six FM+CWP+ subjects completed assessments at both time points; 56 (73.7%) met the FM study definition at follow-up. Twenty subjects no longer met the FM study definition (eleven became FM−CWP− and nine became FM−CWP+). Ten subjects (two from FM−CWP− and eight from FM−CWP+) transitioned into the FM+CWP+ group at follow-up; they reported more tender points and pain interference with sleep and worse physical function at baseline compared with subjects who did not transition to FM+CWP+. Most (76.7%) of the subjects who transitioned into/out of FM+CWP+ experienced changes in CWP, number of positive tender points, or both. Conclusion The results suggest that some FM+CWP+ patients experience

  1. Scenario management and automated scenario generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

    2006-05-01

    The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4 th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

  2. Progression of fibromyalgia: results from a 2-year observational fibromyalgia and chronic pain study in the US.

    PubMed

    Adams, Edgar H; McElroy, Heather J; Udall, Margarita; Masters, Elizabeth T; Mann, Rachael M; Schaefer, Caroline P; Cappelleri, Joseph C; Clair, Andrew G; Hopps, Markay; Daniel, Shoshana R; Mease, Philip; Silverman, Stuart L; Staud, Roland

    2016-01-01

    A previous fibromyalgia (FM) research reports that 20%-47% of diagnosed patients may not meet the study definition of FM 1-2 years after diagnosis. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the progression of FM in a geographically diverse cohort over a 2-year time period. This cohort study followed 226 subjects recruited online to assess FM and chronic widespread pain (CWP) diagnosis stability over time. At enrollment (baseline), subjects provided informed consent, completed an online questionnaire consisting of the London Fibromyalgia Epidemiology Study Screening Questionnaire to screen for CWP (bilateral pain above/below waist lasting ≥1 week in the past 3 months), visited a site for physician evaluation for FM, and completed a questionnaire with validated patient-reported outcome instruments. Subjects were classified into mutually exclusive groups: FM+CWP+ (screened positive for CWP and received physician diagnosis of FM), FM-CWP+ (screened positive for CWP but did not receive physician diagnosis of FM), and FM-CWP- (screened negative for CWP). Approximately 2 years later (follow-up), subjects were reassessed at the same study site and completed a questionnaire with the same patient-reported outcomes. Seventy-six FM+CWP+ subjects completed assessments at both time points; 56 (73.7%) met the FM study definition at follow-up. Twenty subjects no longer met the FM study definition (eleven became FM-CWP- and nine became FM-CWP+). Ten subjects (two from FM-CWP- and eight from FM-CWP+) transitioned into the FM+CWP+ group at follow-up; they reported more tender points and pain interference with sleep and worse physical function at baseline compared with subjects who did not transition to FM+CWP+. Most (76.7%) of the subjects who transitioned into/out of FM+CWP+ experienced changes in CWP, number of positive tender points, or both. The results suggest that some FM+CWP+ patients experience fluctuation in symptoms over time, which may reflect the

  3. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  4. Public Disclosure to Improve Physical Education in an Urban School District: Results From a 2-Year Quasi-Experimental Study.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Hannah R; Vittinghoff, Eric; Linchey, Jennifer K; Madsen, Kristine A

    2015-09-01

    Many elementary schools have policies requiring a minimum amount of physical education (PE). However, few schools comply with local/state PE policy and little is known about how to improve adherence. We evaluated changes in PE among fifth-grade classes, following participatory action research efforts to improve PE quantity and policy compliance that focused on publically disclosing PE data. Data were collected in 20 San Francisco public elementary schools in spring 2011 and 2013. PE schedules were collected and PE classes were directly observed (2011, N = 30 teachers; 2013, N = 33 teachers). Data on the proportion of schools meeting state PE mandates in 2011 were shared within the school district and disclosed to the general public in 2012. From 2011 to 2013, PE increased by 11 minutes/week based on teachers' schedules (95% CI: 3.0, 19.6) and by 14 minutes/week (95% CI: 1.9, 26.0) based on observations. The proportion of schools meeting the state PE mandate increased from 20% to 30% (p = .27). Positive changes in PE were seen over a 2-year period following the public disclosure of data that highlighted poor PE policy compliance. Public disclosure could be a method for ensuring greater PE policy adherence. © 2015, American School Health Association.

  5. Finnish parental involvement ethos, health support, health education knowledge and participation: results from a 2-year school health intervention.

    PubMed

    Sormunen, Marjorita; Tossavainen, Kerttu; Turunen, Hannele

    2013-04-01

    A 2-year, participatory action research school health study focused on developing components for home-school partnerships to support children's health learning process. Two intervention schools implemented strengthened health and collaboration-orientated activities; two control schools followed the national core curriculum without extracurricular activities. The parents of fourth-grade pupils (10-11 years at baseline) completed questionnaires before intervention in spring 2008 (N = 348) and after intervention in spring 2010 (N = 358). A two-way analysis of variance was conducted to determine whether time (2008/2010) and group (intervention/control) influenced parents' perceptions and experiences of parental involvement, health education and health support received from the school. Compared with controls, the intervention schools' parents experienced greater involvement ethos (Cohen's d = 0.57, P < 0.001), increased knowledge of health education (Cohen's d = 0.60, P = 0.02) and health support (Cohen's d = 0.35, P = 0.02). Health education participation among parents increased only partially during the intervention (Cohen's d = -0.12, P = 0.193). School health interventions based on schools' needs may have the potential to influence positively the relationship between home and school and increase the visibility of health education. The study was undertaken within the Schools for Health in Europe program.

  6. A novel thromboxane A2 receptor N42S variant results in reduced surface expression and platelet dysfunction.

    PubMed

    Nisar, Shaista P; Lordkipanidzé, Marie; Jones, Matthew L; Dawood, Ban; Murden, Sherina; Cunningham, Margaret R; Mumford, Andrew D; Wilde, Jonathan T; Watson, Steve P; Mundell, Stuart J; Lowe, Gillian C

    2014-05-05

    A small number of thromboxane receptor variants have been described in patients with a bleeding history that result in platelet dysfunction. We have identified a patient with a history of significant bleeding, who expresses a novel heterozygous thromboxane receptor variant that predicts an asparagine to serine substitution (N42S). This asparagine is conserved across all class A GPCRs, suggesting a vital role for receptor structure and function.We investigated the functional consequences of the TP receptor heterozygous N42S substitution by performing platelet function studies on platelet-rich plasma taken from the patient and healthy controls. We investigated the N42S mutation by expressing the wild-type (WT) and mutant receptor in human embryonic kidney (HEK) cells. Aggregation studies showed an ablation of arachidonic acid responses in the patient, whilst there was right-ward shift of the U46619 concentration response curve (CRC). Thromboxane generation was unaffected. Calcium mobilisation studies in cells lines showed a rightward shift of the U46619 CRC in N42S-expressing cells compared to WT. Radioligand binding studies revealed a reduction in BMax in platelets taken from the patient and in N42S-expressing cells, whilst cell studies confirmed poor surface expression. We have identified a novel thromboxane receptor variant, N42S, which results in platelet dysfunction due to reduced surface expression. It is associated with a significant bleeding history in the patient in whom it was identified. This is the first description of a naturally occurring variant that results in the substitution of this highly conserved residue and confirms the importance of this residue for correct GPCR function.

  7. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  8. [Effects of daily physical exercise at school on cardiovascular risk--results of a 2-year cluster-randomized study].

    PubMed

    Walther, C; Mende, M; Gaede, L; Müller, U; Machalica, K; Schuler, G

    2011-11-01

    It was the aim of this study to measure the effects over two years of daily sport activity during the school-day on their physical fitness (primary endpoint), motor coordination and blood pressure (secondary endpoints). A total of 232 children from eleven different 6 (th) grade classes were enrolled after informed parental consent. Their mean age was 11.1  ±  0.6 years. Six classes were randomly assigned for intervention (n=141), five as control (n=91). Those of the intervention cohort undertook, for five days weekly during the school year one hour of regulated sport exercise, including 15 min of endurance training. The pupils of the control group undertook customary sport activity (two hours a week). Anthropometric data were recorded and maximal oxygen uptake measured in each pupil, as well as blood pressure and motor coordination at the beginning and at the end of each of the two years of the study. The data were analyzed using the cluster randomization method. Maximal oxygen uptake (VO (2)max) had improved among the intervention group after two years, compared with the controls (3.12 m/kg/min, 95% confindence interval [CI] 0.06-6.19), while improvement in motor coordination just failed to reach statistical significance (3.06, 95% CI -0.17-6.29). There was no significant difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, but a downward trend in the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 12.1% to 7.8% in the intervention group. The results indicate that daily physical exercise during school hours should be given greater importance. But it will require a long-term trial to determine whether promotion of increased physical activity at school influences the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors when the pupils reach adulthood. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  9. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  10. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  11. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  12. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  13. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    DOE PAGES

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; ...

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m X ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

  14. Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

    Treesearch

    A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

    2011-01-01

    Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

  15. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  16. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    PubMed

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  17. Results.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zemsky, Robert; Shaman, Susan; Shapiro, Daniel B.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the Collegiate Results Instrument (CRI), which measures a range of collegiate outcomes for alumni 6 years after graduation. The CRI was designed to target alumni from institutions across market segments and assess their values, abilities, work skills, occupations, and pursuit of lifelong learning. (EV)

  18. TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

  19. Climate-change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, Frederic H.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Baldwin, C.K.; Mearns, L.O.; Wagner, Frederic H.

    2003-01-01

    Three procedures were used to develop a set of plausible scenarios of anthropogenic climate change by the year 2100 that could be posed to the sectors selected for assessment (Fig. 2.2). First, a workshop of climatologists with expertise in western North American climates was convened from September 10-12, 1998 at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara, CA to discuss and propose a set of scenarios for the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin (RMGB) region.Secondly, the 20th-century climate record was analyzed to determine what trends might have occurred during the period. Since CO2 and other greenhouse gases increased during the century, it was reasonable to examine whether the changes projected for the 21st century had begun to appear during the 20th, at least qualitatively though not quantitatively.Third, on the assumption of a two-fold increase in atmospheric CO2 by 2100, climate-change scenarios for the 21st century were projected with two, state-of-the-art computer models that simulate the complex interactions between earth, atmosphere, and ocean to produce the earth’s climate system. Each of the last two procedures has its strengths and weaknesses, and each can function to some degree as a check on the other. The historical analysis has the advantage of using empirical measurements of actual climate change taken over an extensive network of measuring stations. These make it possible to subdivide a large region like the RMGB into subreqions to assess the uniformity of climate and climate change over the region. And the historical measurements can to some degree serve as a check on the GCM simulations when the two are compared over the same time period.

  20. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  1. Double half-cone flap umbilicoplasty for proboscoid umbilical hernia in a 2 years old child with satisfactory results 2 years later.

    PubMed

    Ashu, Eseme Ebai; Leroy, Guifo Marc; Aristide, Bang Guy; Joss, Bitang Mafok Louis; Bonaventure, Jemea; Patrick, Savom Eric; Myriam, Fotso Guegne

    2015-01-01

    Surgical repair of large umbilical hernias may present a challenging surgical problem; standard surgical techniques have proven to be inadequate for both closing the fascial defect of the umbilicus and providing a satisfactory cosmetic result. We describe here a case of double half-cone flap umbilicoplasty that was performed in a 2 years old boy. The case of a 2 years old child with proboscoid umbilical hernia. The protruding umbilical skin was excised sharply by two V-shaped cuts leaving two half cones, a short cephalic (0.5cm) and a long caudal (1cm). A classic herniotomy was carried out, with repair of the facial defect. The caudal half cone was sutured from its apex till half it's length upon itself with interrupted sutures and it was anchored deeply to the fascia. Then we inverted the cephalic half cone which was sutured to the caudal cone to form the new umbilicus. The early result was excellent with no complications and the result after 2years revealed a cosmetically satisfactory shape of the umbilicus. this technique provides a good solution for reconstruction of the protruding umbilical skin and it is easy to learn, easy to be taught and perform in surgical environments and may be applicable for any kind of umbilical reconstruction.

  2. Double half-cone flap umbilicoplasty for proboscoid umbilical hernia in a 2 years old child with satisfactory results 2 years later

    PubMed Central

    Ashu, Eseme Ebai; Leroy, Guifo Marc; Aristide, Bang Guy; Joss, Bitang Mafok Louis; Bonaventure, Jemea; Patrick, Savom Eric; Myriam, Fotso Guegne

    2015-01-01

    Surgical repair of large umbilical hernias may present a challenging surgical problem; standard surgical techniques have proven to be inadequate for both closing the fascial defect of the umbilicus and providing a satisfactory cosmetic result. We describe here a case of double half-cone flap umbilicoplasty that was performed in a 2 years old boy. The case of a 2 years old child with proboscoid umbilical hernia. The protruding umbilical skin was excised sharply by two V-shaped cuts leaving two half cones, a short cephalic (0.5cm) and a long caudal (1cm). A classic herniotomy was carried out, with repair of the facial defect. The caudal half cone was sutured from its apex till half it's length upon itself with interrupted sutures and it was anchored deeply to the fascia. Then we inverted the cephalic half cone which was sutured to the caudal cone to form the new umbilicus. The early result was excellent with no complications and the result after 2years revealed a cosmetically satisfactory shape of the umbilicus. this technique provides a good solution for reconstruction of the protruding umbilical skin and it is easy to learn, easy to be taught and perform in surgical environments and may be applicable for any kind of umbilical reconstruction. PMID:26664545

  3. The big bang as a result of the first-order phase transition driven by a change of the scalar curvature in an expanding early Universe: The “hyperinflation” scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Pashitskii, E. A., E-mail: pashitsk@iop.kiev.ua; Pentegov, V. I.

    We suggest that the Big Bang could be a result of the first-order phase transition driven by a change in the scalar curvature of the 4D spacetime in an expanding cold Universe filled with a nonlinear scalar field φ and neutral matter with an equation of state p = νε (where p and ε are the pressure and energy density of the matter, respectively). We consider the Lagrangian of a scalar field with nonlinearity φ{sup 4} in a curved spacetime that, along with the term–ξR|φ|{sup 2} quadratic in φ (where ξ is the interaction constant between the scalar and gravitationalmore » fields and R is the scalar curvature), contains the term ξRφ{sub 0}(φ + φ{sup +}) linear in φ, where φ{sub 0} is the vacuum mean of the scalar field amplitude. As a consequence, the condition for the existence of extrema of the scalar-field potential energy is reduced to an equation cubic in φ. Provided that ν > 1/3, the scalar curvature R = [κ(3ν–1)ε–4Λ] (where κ and Λ are Einstein’s gravitational and cosmological constants, respectively) decreases with decreasing ε as the Universe expands, and a first-order phase transition in variable “external field” parameter proportional to R occurs at some critical value R{sub c} < 0. Under certain conditions, the critical radius of the early Universe at the point of the first-order phase transition can reach an arbitrary large value, so that this scenario of unrestricted “inflation” of the Universe may be called “hyperinflation.” After the passage through the phase-transition point, the scalar-field potential energy should be rapidly released, which must lead to strong heating of the Universe, playing the role of the Big Bang.« less

  4. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  5. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  6. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

  7. Development and Validation of Videotaped Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Noel, Nora E.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Johnson, James D.; Jackson, Lee A.; Goings, Christopher D.; Hagman, Brett T.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios. PMID:18252938

  8. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  9. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  10. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing differentmore » techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to

  11. What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference? Results from ISI-MIP the first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frieler, K.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. Over 25 climate impact modelling teams from around the world, working within the agriculture, water, biomes, infrastructure and health sectors, are collaborating to find answers to the question "What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference?". The analysis is based on common, bias-corrected climate projections, and socio-economic pathways. The first, fast-tracked phase of the ISI-MIP has a focus on global impact models. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. Novel metrics, developed to emphasize societal impacts, will be used to identify regional 'hot-spots' of climate change impacts, as well as to quantify the cross-sectoral impact of the increasing frequency of extreme events in future climates. We present here first results from the Fast-Track phase of the project covering impact simulations in the biomes, agriculture and water sectors, in which the societal impacts of climate change are quantified for different levels of global warming. We also discuss the design of the scenario set-up and impact indicators chosen to suit the unique cross-sectoral, multi-model nature of the project.

  12. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  13. SU-E-CAMPUS-T-05: Preliminary Results On a 2D Dosimetry System Based On the Optically Stimulated Luminescence of Al2O3

    SciTech Connect

    Ahmed, M; Eller, S; Yukihara, E

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To develop a precise 2D dose mapping technique based on the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) from Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} films for medical applications. Methods: A 2D laser scanning reader was developed using fast F{sup +}-center (lifetime of <7 ns) and slow F-center (lifetime of 35 ms) OSL emission from newly developed Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} films (Landauer Inc.). An algorithm was developed to correct images for both material and system properties. Since greater contribution of the F??-center emission in the recorded signal increases the readout efficiency and robustness of image corrections, Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C,Mg film samples are being investigated inmore » addition to Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C samples. Preliminary investigations include exposure of the films to a 6 MV photon beam at 10 cm depth in solid water phantom with an SSD of 100 cm, using a 10 cm × 10 cm flat field or a 4 cm × 4 cm field with a 60° wedge filter. Kodak EDR2 radiographic film and EBT2 Gafchromic film were also exposed for comparison. Results: The results indicate that the algorithm is able to correct images and calculate 2D dose. For the wedge field irradiation, the calculated dose at the center of the field was 0.9 Gy for Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C and 0.87 Gy for Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C,Mg, whereas, the delivered dose was 0.95 Gy. A good qualitative agreement of the dose profiles was obtained between the OSL films and EDR2 and EBT2 films. Laboratory tests using a beta source suggest that a large dynamic range (10{sup −2}−10{sup 2} Gy) can be achieved using this technique. Conclusion: A 2D dosimetry system and an in-house image correction algorithm were developed for 2D film dosimetry in medical applications. The system is in the preliminary stage of development, but the data demonstrates the feasibility of this approach. This work was supported by Landauer, Inc.« less

  14. Development scenario for laser fusion

    SciTech Connect

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-03-30

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the earlymore » 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.« less

  15. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  16. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  17. Women with provoked vestibulodynia experience clinically significant reductions in pain regardless of treatment: results from a 2-year follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Davis, Seth N P; Bergeron, Sophie; Binik, Yitzchak M; Lambert, Bernard

    2013-12-01

    Provoked vestibulodynia (PVD) is a prevalent genital pain syndrome that has been assumed to be chronic, with little spontaneous remission. Despite this assumption, there is a dearth of empirical evidence regarding the progression of PVD in a natural setting. Although many treatments are available, there is no single treatment that has demonstrated efficacy above others. The aims of this secondary analysis of a prospective study were to (i) assess changes over a 2-year period in pain, depressive symptoms, and sexual outcomes in women with PVD; and (ii) examine changes based on treatment(s) type. Participants completed questionnaire packages at Time 1 and a follow-up package 2 years later. Visual analog scale of genital pain, Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction, Female Sexual Function Index, Beck Depression Inventory, Dyadic Adjustment Scale, and sexual intercourse attempts over the past month. Two hundred thirty-nine women with PVD completed both time one and two questionnaires. For the sample as a whole, there was significant improvement over 2 years on pain ratings, sexual satisfaction, sexual function, and depressive symptoms. The most commonly received treatments were physical therapy, sex/psychotherapy, and medical treatment, although 41.0% did not undergo any treatment. Women receiving no treatment also improved significantly on pain ratings. No single treatment type predicted better outcome for any variable except depressive symptoms, in which women who underwent surgery were more likely to improve. These results suggest that PVD may significantly reduce in severity over time. Participants demonstrated clinically significant pain improvement, even when they did not receive treatment. Furthermore, the only single treatment type predicting better outcomes was surgery, and only for depressive symptoms, accounting for only 2.3% of the variance. These data do not demonstrate the superiority of any one treatment and underscore the need to have control groups in

  18. Development of a super-pressure balloon with a diamond-shaped net --- result of a ground inflation test of a 2,000 cubic-meter balloon ---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, Yoshitaka; Nakashino, Kyoichi; Akita, Daisuke; Matsushima, Kiyoho; Shimadu, Shigeyuki; Goto, Ken; Hashimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsuo, Takuma

    2016-07-01

    A light super-pressure balloon has been developed using a method to cover a balloon with a diamond-shaped net of high-tensile fibers. The goal is to fly a payload of 900 kg to the altitude of 37 km with a 300,000 m^{3} balloon. Beginning from a demonstration test of the net-balloon with a 10 m^{3} balloon in 2010, we have been polished the net-balloon through ground inflation tests and flight tests, including a flight test of a 3,000 m ^{3} balloon in the tandem balloon configuration with a 15,000 m^{3} zero-pressure balloon in 2012, and a flight test of a 10 m^{3} balloon in the tandem balloon configuration with a 2 kg rubber balloon in 2013, as reported in the last COSPAR. In 2014, we developed a 5,000 m^{3} balloon and performed a ground inflation test to find that the balloon burst from a lip panel for termination with a differential pressure of 425 Pa. It was due to a stress concentration at the edge of a thick tape attached along the termination mechanism. In 2015, we modified the balloon by adding tapes on the lip panel to avoid the stress concentration, and also shorten the net length to leave some margin of the film and performed a ground inflation test again to find the balloon showed asymmetrical deployment and burst from the edge of the net with a differential pressure of 348 Pa. We consider it is due to the margin of the film along the circumferential direction, and proposed a gore shape which circumference length is kept as determined by the pumpkin shape of the balloon but setting meridian length longer than that. We developed a 10 m^{3} balloon with the gore design to find that the balloon deployed symmetrically and showed the burst pressure of 10,000 Pa. In 2016, we are going to develop a 2,000 m^{3} balloon with the gore design and perform its ground inflation test. In this paper, we are going to report its result with the sequence of the development.

  19. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  20. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  1. Belgian Schizophrenia Outcome Survey - results of a 2-year naturalistic study in patients stabilised on monotherapy with olanzapine, risperidone or haloperidol.

    PubMed

    Peuskens, J; Gillain, B; De Graeve, D; Van Vleymen, B; Albert, A

    2009-04-01

    This Schizophrenia Outcome Survey compared medical costs, psychopathology and adverse events in outpatients for 2 years following hospitalisation for an acute schizophrenic episode. Adults stabilised with haloperidol, olanzapine or risperidone entered this observational study a 2-year follow-up. In all groups, CGI and GAF improved during the first 3 months (both p<0.0001) while BPRS deteriorated in the first year (all within group changes p<0.05, between group changes NS) before it stabilised. There were no significant differences in hospitalisations and no change in social profile. At the last visit, 66% of haloperidol (p<0.01), 35% of olanzapine (NS) and 39% (NS) of risperidone patients had >or=1 EPS; 69% (p<0.013), 40 and 44%, respectively, had >or=1 sexual problem (NS). Mean weight gain was 0.4 (NS), 2.6 (p<0.05) and 2.6 kg (p<0.05), respectively. In this naturalistic study, treatment allocation might have introduced a bias in the interpretation of efficiency results, but olanzapine and risperidone caused less EPS than haloperidol during 2 years of outpatient follow-up.

  2. Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

  3. A Ta-rich low-P peraluminous granite: the Rechla cupola (Hoggar, Algeria) and associated pegmatites, the result of extreme fractionation of a A2-type magma.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kesraoui, M.; Marignac, C.; Hamis, A.; Cuney, M.

    2012-04-01

    pronounced <0 Eu anomaly. Geochemical modelling shows that the main Rechla magma is likely the fractionated product of this already differentiated magma, mainly involving quartz and Kfs. The pegmatite rim is interpreted as the result of the sequential crystallization of a Rechla-type melt, with late individualisation of a Fe-rich magmatic-hydrothermal phase responsible for the quartz-zinnwaldite assemblage, leaving a strongly Be-enriched residual liquid (the fine-grained granite). As demonstrated by the Rechla occurrence, Ta concentration at levels similar to those in Beauvoir-type high-P peraluminous granites may be reached in the low-P low-Ta A2 suites, provided that extreme fractionation processes are established. Azzouni-Sekkal, A., Boissonnas, J. (1993). Une province magmatique de transition du calco-alcalin à l'alcalin : les granitoïdes pan-africains à structure annulaire de la chaîne pharusienne du Hoggar (Algérie). Bulletin Société Géologique France 164, 597-608. Linnen, R.L., Cuney, M. (2005). Granite-related rare-element deposits and experimental constraints on Ta-Nb-W-Sn-Zr-Hf mineralization. In: RL Linnen, IM Samson (eds), Rare-element geochemistry and mineral deposits, Geological Association of Canada (GAC) Short Course Notes 17, pp. 45-67.

  4. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  5. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  6. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  7. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  8. Immunoinformatics: an integrated scenario

    PubMed Central

    Tomar, Namrata; De, Rajat K

    2010-01-01

    Genome sequencing of humans and other organisms has led to the accumulation of huge amounts of data, which include immunologically relevant data. A large volume of clinical data has been deposited in several immunological databases and as a result immunoinformatics has emerged as an important field which acts as an intersection between experimental immunology and computational approaches. It not only helps in dealing with the huge amount of data but also plays a role in defining new hypotheses related to immune responses. This article reviews classical immunology, different databases and prediction tools. It also describes applications of immunoinformatics in designing in silico vaccination and immune system modelling. All these efforts save time and reduce cost. PMID:20722763

  9. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  10. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  11. Genetic ablation of calcium-independent phospholipase A2gamma leads to alterations in mitochondrial lipid metabolism and function resulting in a deficient mitochondrial bioenergetic phenotype.

    PubMed

    Mancuso, David J; Sims, Harold F; Han, Xianlin; Jenkins, Christopher M; Guan, Shao Ping; Yang, Kui; Moon, Sung Ho; Pietka, Terri; Abumrad, Nada A; Schlesinger, Paul H; Gross, Richard W

    2007-11-30

    Previously, we identified a novel calcium-independent phospholipase, designated calcium-independent phospholipase A(2) gamma (iPLA(2)gamma), which possesses dual mitochondrial and peroxisomal subcellular localization signals. To identify the roles of iPLA(2)gamma in cellular bioenergetics, we generated mice null for the iPLA(2)gamma gene by eliminating the active site of the enzyme through homologous recombination. Mice null for iPLA(2)gamma display multiple bioenergetic dysfunctional phenotypes, including 1) growth retardation, 2) cold intolerance, 3) reduced exercise endurance, 4) greatly increased mortality from cardiac stress after transverse aortic constriction, 5) abnormal mitochondrial function with a 65% decrease in ascorbate-induced Complex IV-mediated oxygen consumption, and 6) a reduction in myocardial cardiolipin content accompanied by an altered cardiolipin molecular species composition. We conclude that iPLA(2)gamma is essential for maintaining efficient bioenergetic mitochondrial function through tailoring mitochondrial membrane lipid metabolism and composition.

  12. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  13. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  14. High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

  15. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  16. Refining the Value of Secretory Phospholipase A2 as a Predictor of Acute Chest Syndrome in Sickle Cell Disease: Results of a Feasibility Study (PROACTIVE)

    PubMed Central

    Styles, Lori; Wager, Carrie G.; Labotka, Richard J.; Smith-Whitley, Kim; Thompson, Alexis A.; Lane, Peter A.; McMahon, Lillian E.C; Miller, Robin; Roseff, Susan; Iyer, Rathi; Hsu, Lewis L.; Castro, Oswaldo; Ataga, Kenneth; Onyekwere, Onyinye; Okam, Maureen; Bellevue, Rita; Miller, Scott T.

    2012-01-01

    Acute chest syndrome (ACS) is defined as fever, respiratory symptoms and a new pulmonary infiltrate in an individual with sickle cell disease (SCD). Nearly half of ACS episodes occur in SCD patients already hospitalized, potentially permitting pre-emptive therapy in high-risk patients. Simple transfusion of red blood cells may abort ACS if given to patients hospitalized for pain who develop fever and elevated levels of secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2). In a feasibility study (PROACTIVE; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00951808), patients hospitalized for pain who developed fever and elevated sPLA2 were eligible for randomization to transfusion or observation; all others were enrolled in an observational arm. Of 237 enrolled, only 10 were randomized; one of the four to receive transfusion had delayed treatment. Of 233 subjects receiving standard care, 22 developed ACS. A threshold level of sPLA2 ≥ 48 ng/ml gave optimal sensitivity (73%), specificity (71%) and accuracy (71%), but a positive predictive value of only 24%. The predictive value of sPLA2 was improved in adults and patients with chest or back pain, lower haemoglobin concentration and higher white blood cell counts; and those receiving less than two-thirds maintenance fluids. The hurdles identified in PROACTIVE should facilitate design of a larger, definitive, phase 3 randomized controlled trial. PMID:22463614

  17. Minimally Invasive Sacroiliac Joint Fusion Using a Novel Hydroxyapatite-Coated Screw: Preliminary 1-Year Clinical and Radiographic Results of a 2-Year Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    Rappoport, Louis H; Luna, Ingrid Y; Joshua, Gita

    2017-05-01

    Proper diagnosis and treatment of sacroiliac joint (SIJ) pain remains a clinical challenge. Dysfunction of the SIJ can produce pain in the lower back, buttocks, and extremities. Triangular titanium implants for minimally invasive surgical arthrodesis have been available for several years, with reputed high levels of success and patient satisfaction. This study reports on a novel hydroxyapatite-coated screw for surgical treatment of SIJ pain. Data were prospectively collected on 32 consecutive patients who underwent minimally invasive SIJ fusion with a novel hydroxyapatite-coated screw. Clinical assessments and radiographs were collected and evaluated at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. Mean (standard deviation) patient age was 55.2 ± 10.7 years, and 62.5% were female. More patients (53.1%) underwent left versus right SIJ treatment, mean operative time was 42.6 ± 20.4 minutes, and estimated blood loss did not exceed 50 mL. Overnight hospital stay was required for 84% of patients, and the remaining patients needed a 2-day stay (16%). Mean preoperative visual analog scale back and leg pain scores decreased significantly by 12 months postoperatively (P < 0.01). Mechanical stability was achieved in 93.3% (28/30) of patients, and all patients who were employed preoperatively returned to work within 3 months. Two patients who required revision surgery reported symptom improvement within 3 weeks and did not require subsequent surgery. Positive clinical outcomes are reported 1 year postoperatively after implantation of a novel implant to treat sacroiliac joint pain. Future clinical studies with larger samples are warranted to assess long-term patient outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Generating moment matching scenarios using optimization techniques

    DOE PAGES

    Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, Dávid

    2013-05-16

    An optimization based method is proposed to generate moment matching scenarios for numerical integration and its use in stochastic programming. The main advantage of the method is its flexibility: it can generate scenarios matching any prescribed set of moments of the underlying distribution rather than matching all moments up to a certain order, and the distribution can be defined over an arbitrary set. This allows for a reduction in the number of scenarios and allows the scenarios to be better tailored to the problem at hand. The method is based on a semi-infinite linear programming formulation of the problem thatmore » is shown to be solvable with polynomial iteration complexity. A practical column generation method is implemented. The column generation subproblems are polynomial optimization problems; however, they need not be solved to optimality. It is found that the columns in the column generation approach can be efficiently generated by random sampling. The number of scenarios generated matches a lower bound of Tchakaloff's. The rate of convergence of the approximation error is established for continuous integrands, and an improved bound is given for smooth integrands. Extensive numerical experiments are presented in which variants of the proposed method are compared to Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods on both numerical integration problems and stochastic optimization problems. The benefits of being able to match any prescribed set of moments, rather than all moments up to a certain order, is also demonstrated using optimization problems with 100-dimensional random vectors. Here, empirical results show that the proposed approach outperforms Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo based approaches on the tested problems.« less

  19. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  20. Global Futures: The Emerging Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seth, Satish C.

    1983-01-01

    Acknowledging global interdependence, especially in economics, may be the most important step toward resolving international conflicts. Describes seven major global dangers and gives scenarios for exploring likely global futures. As "tools of prescription" these global models are inadequate, but as "tools of analysis" they have…

  1. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  2. Effect of home visiting by nurses on maternal and child mortality: results of a 2-decade follow-up of a randomized clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Olds, David L; Kitzman, Harriet; Knudtson, Michael D; Anson, Elizabeth; Smith, Joyce A; Cole, Robert

    2014-09-01

    Mothers and children living in adverse contexts are at risk of premature death. To determine the effect of prenatal and infant/toddler nurse home visiting on maternal and child mortality during a 2-decade period (1990-2011). A randomized clinical trial was designed originally to assess the home visiting program's effect on pregnancy outcomes and maternal and child health through child age 2 years. The study was conducted in a public system of obstetric and pediatric care in Memphis, Tennessee. Participants included primarily African American women and their first live-born children living in highly disadvantaged urban neighborhoods, who were assigned to 1 of 4 treatment groups: treatment 1 (transportation for prenatal care [n = 166]), treatment 2 (transportation plus developmental screening for infants and toddlers [n = 514]), treatment 3 (transportation plus prenatal/postpartum home visiting [n = 230]), and treatment 4 (transportation, screening, and prenatal, postpartum, and infant/toddler home visiting [n = 228]). Treatments 1 and 3 were included originally to increase statistical power for testing pregnancy outcomes. For determining mortality, background information was available for all 1138 mothers assigned to all 4 treatments and all but 2 live-born children in treatments 2 and 4 (n = 704). Inclusion of children in treatments 1 and 3 was not possible because background information was missing on too many children. Nurses sought to improve the outcomes of pregnancy, children's health and development, and mothers' health and life-course with home visits beginning during pregnancy and continuing through child age 2 years. All-cause mortality in mothers and preventable-cause mortality in children (sudden infant death syndrome, unintentional injury, and homicide) derived from the National Death Index. The mean (SE) 21-year maternal all-cause mortality rate was 3.7% (0.74%) in the combined control group (treatments 1 and 2), 0.4% (0.43%) in treatment 3, and 2

  3. Integrated Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A). Engineering Test Report: Radiated Emissions and SARR, SARP, DCS Receivers, Link Frequencies EMI Sensitive Band Test Results, AMSU-A2, S/N 108, 08

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valdez, A.

    2000-01-01

    This is the Engineering Test Report, Radiated Emissions and SARR, SARP, DCS Receivers, Link Frequencies EMI Sensitive Band Test Results, AMSU-A2, S/N 108, for the Integrated Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A).

  4. Biochemical differences in the mass and activity tests of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 explain the discordance in results between the two assay methods.

    PubMed

    Zhuo, Shaoqiu; Wolfert, Robert L; Yuan, Chong

    2017-12-01

    There are two platforms for the detection of Lp-PLA 2 in sera or plasmas: by its enzymatic activity (PLAC® activity test) and by its mass concentration (PLAC® mass test). It has been long recognized that these two platforms are not correlated well. The underlying cause for this is therefore investigated by the biochemical characterization of the two PLAC tests. Human sera with and without the treatment by detergent were fractionated by using a Superose-6 column in phosphate buffered saline and the phospholipid associated Lp-PLA 2 was assessed by both PLAC mass and activity tests. The Lp-PLA 2 values of the two PLAC tests were compared under such conditions. Fractionation of sera and plasmas indicates that the association of Lp-PLA 2 with phospholipids, especially LDL and other large size phospholipid vesicles, may block the detection of the enzyme by antibodies in the immunoassay format under the conditions of the PLAC mass test. Inclusion of high concentration (>CMC, critical micelle concentration) of detergents in the assay buffer of PLAC mass test dissociates Lp-PLA 2 from phospholipid vesicles and results in the full detection of all Lp-PLA 2 in sera or plasmas for concentration. Such assay modification significantly improves the correlation between the PLAC mass and PLAC activity tests. PLAC mass test only detects a small portion of the total Lp-PLA 2 , mainly the Lp-PLA 2 associated with HDL. This is the main cause of the discordance and poor correlation between the PLAC mass and activity tests. Our results demonstrate the PLAC activity test is more accurate in assessing the total level of circulating Lp-PLA 2 . Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Results of a 2-year randomized, controlled obesity prevention trial: Effects on diet, activity and sleep behaviors in an at-risk young adult population.

    PubMed

    Laska, Melissa N; Lytle, Leslie A; Nanney, Marilyn S; Moe, Stacey G; Linde, Jennifer A; Hannan, Peter J

    2016-08-01

    Excess weight gain tends to occur in young adulthood. However, research examining effective weight-related interventions for this age group has been limited. As one of seven trials in the EARLY Trials consortium (Early Adult Reduction of weight through LifestYle intervention), the CHOICES Study (Choosing Healthy Options in College Environments and Settings) tested effects of a technology-integrated, young adult weight gain prevention intervention. It was a randomized controlled trial with assessments at baseline (2011) and 4-, 12- and 24-months post-intervention initiation and included 441 participants (ages 18-35) who were students at three Minnesota community colleges. The 24-month intervention included a 1-credit academic course and social networking and support online intervention. This analysis examined effects on 12 secondary behavioral outcomes across three domains: diet (fast food, sugary beverages, breakfast, at-home meal preparation), physical activity/screen time (minutes and energy expenditure in leisure time physical activity, television viewing, leisure time computer use) and sleep (hours of sleep, time required to fall asleep, days not getting enough rest, difficulty staying awake). The intervention resulted in significant reductions in fast food (p=0.007) but increases in difficulty staying awake (p=0.015). There was limited evidence of other behavior changes at 4months (0.05results (p=0.005). Additional research is needed to understand effective obesity prevention among young adults, particularly when addressing multiple weight-related outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Glacitectonic rafting and associated deformation of mid-Pleistocene glacigenic sediments, near Central Graben, central North Sea; results of a 2D High-Resolution Geophysical Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan-Hirsch, David

    2013-04-01

    Glacitectonic rafts are defined as dislocated slabs of bedrock or unconsolidated sediments, transported from their original position by glacial action. These relatively thin, slab-like bodies feature transport distances ranging from tens of meters to hundreds of kilometers. They occur as either single rafts, or multiple stacked bodies associated with a variety of ice-pushed landforms. Internally, rafts frequently appear undeformed although at a larger scale, they may be folded or cut by shear zones and brittle faults. However, the processes leading to the detachment, transport and subsequent emplacement of the rafts remain uncertain. This work describes the results of a geophysical 2D seismic survey of thrust-bound glacitectonic rafts and associated deformation structures, occurring within mid-Pleistocene glacigenic sediments of the Central Graben, central North Sea. The total shortened length of the rafted section is 2.4km, comprising a series of nine discrete rafts which individually range from 235m to 1018m in length. The principle basal detachment occurs at the erosive contact between Aberdeen Ground Formation and overlying Ling Bank Formation. The ice-proximal (northern) limit of rafting is defined by the presence of a large-scale palaeo-channel oriented perpendicular to the direction of rafting, composed of sediments of the Ling Bank Formation and the Forth Formation. The observed deformation structures infer a mean tectonic direction of 178°, indicating that they are associated with an active glacial advance from the north. The resulting deformation creates a minimum lateral shortening throughout the observed sequence of 35%, typifying a strongly compressional regieme associated with rafting. Throughout the surveyed area, structurally younger rafts are found to be emplaced towards the south, compared to the structurally older rafts which are emplaced towards the south-east. This distinction is suggested to be caused by early rafts creating an obstacle to

  7. Working memory arrest in children with high-functioning autism compared to children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: results from a 2-year longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Per N; Skogli, Erik W; Hovik, Kjell T; Geurts, Hilde; Egeland, Jens; Øie, Merete

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study was to analyse the development of verbal working memory in children with high-functioning autism compared to children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typically developing children. A total of 34 children with high-functioning autism, 72 children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and 45 typically developing children (age 9-16 years) were included at baseline and followed up approximately 25 months later. The children were given a letter/number sequencing task to assess verbal working memory. The performance of children with high-functioning autism on verbal working memory did not improve after 2 years, while improvement was observed in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typically developing children. The results indicate a different developmental trajectory for verbal working memory in children with high-functioning autism compared to children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typically developing children. More research is needed to construct a developmental framework more suitable for children with autism spectrum disorder. © The Author(s) 2014.

  8. Revision of anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction with allografts in patients younger than 40 years old: a 2 to 4 year results.

    PubMed

    Pascual-Garrido, Cecilia; Carbo, L; Makino, A

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this study is first to report the outcomes, at 4 years follow-up, in revision ACL surgery using allografts in patients younger than 40 years old, and then compared soft tissue allografts to bone tendon allografts. This retrospective study included 47 patients who underwent ACL revision surgery with fresh-frozen allografts. Patellar tendon allograft or tibialis anterior allograft was used. Twenty-seven patients undergoing ACL revision with patellar tendon allograft were compared retrospectively with twenty-two patients undergoing the same procedure with soft tissue tibialis anterior allograft. Lysholm, IKDC, and KT-1000 values were obtained preoperatively and postoperatively. The average patient follow-up was 4.6 years (±2.5). The mean age at time of the revision was 34 years old (±6.3). Overall, patients reported the overall condition of their knee as excellent or good in 85% of the patients (10 excellent, 33 good). Based on their experience, 85% would have the surgery again if they had the same problem in the other knee. Both subgroups experienced significant improvement in Lysholm, IKDC, and KT-1000 values, with no difference found between groups at final follow-up. Revision ACL with allografts has excellent and good results in 85% of patients younger than 40 years old. No statistical difference was seen between soft tissue (tibialis anterior) and patellar tendon allograft. IV.

  9. A 2D model of axial symmetry for proximal tubule of an average human nephron: indicative results of diffusion, convection and absorption processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Insfrán, J. F.; Ubal, S.; Di Paolo, y. J.

    2016-04-01

    A simplified model of a proximal convoluted tubule of an average human nephron is presented. The model considers the 2D axisymmetric flow of the luminal solution exchanging matter with the tubule walls and the peritubular fluid by means of 0D models for the epithelial cells. The tubule radius is considered to vary along the conduit due to the trans-epithelial pressure difference. The fate of more than ten typical solutes is tracked down by the model. The Navier-Stokes and Reaction-Diffusion-Advection equations (considering the electro-neutrality principle) are solved in the lumen, giving a detailed picture of the velocity, pressure and concentration fields, along with trans-membrane fluxes and tubule deformation, via coupling with the 0D model for the tubule wall. The calculations are carried out numerically by means of the finite element method. The results obtained show good agreement with those published by other authors using models that ignore the diffusive transport and disregard a detailed calculation of velocity, pressure and concentrations. This work should be seen as a first approach towards the development of a more comprehensive model of the filtration process taking place in the kidneys, which ultimately helps in devising a device that can mimic/complement the renal function.

  10. Video registration of trauma team performance in the emergency department: the results of a 2-year analysis in a Level 1 trauma center.

    PubMed

    Lubbert, Pieter H W; Kaasschieter, Edgar G; Hoorntje, Lidewij E; Leenen, Loek P H

    2009-12-01

    Trauma teams responsible for the first response to patients with multiple injuries upon arrival in a hospital consist of medical specialists or resident physicians. We hypothesized that 24-hour video registration in the trauma room would allow for precise evaluation of team functioning and deviations from Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) protocols. We analyzed all video registrations of trauma patients who visited the emergency room of a Level I trauma center in the Netherlands between September 1, 2000, and September 1, 2002. Analysis was performed with a score list based on ATLS protocols. From a total of 1,256 trauma room presentations, we found a total of 387 video registrations suitable for analysis. The majority of patients had an injury severity score lower than 17 (264 patients), whereas 123 patients were classified as multiple injuries (injury severity score >or=17). Errors in team organization (omission of prehospital report, no evident leadership, unorganized resuscitation, not working according to protocol, and no continued supervision of the patient) lead to significantly more deviations in the treatment than when team organization was uncomplicated. Video registration of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures by a multidisciplinary trauma team facilitates an accurate analysis of possible deviations from protocol. In addition to identifying technical errors, the role of the team leader can clearly be analyzed and related to team actions. Registration strongly depends on availability of video tapes, timely started registration, and hardware functioning. The results from this study were used to develop a training program for trauma teams in our hospital that specifically focuses on the team leader's functioning.

  11. Arthroscopic pullout suture repair of posterior root tear of the medial meniscus: radiographic and clinical results with a 2-year follow-up.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ju Hong; Lim, Young Jin; Kim, Ki Bum; Kim, Kyu Hyung; Song, Ji Hun

    2009-09-01

    This study was undertaken to document the short-term clinical efficacy of arthroscopic pullout suture repair in treating posterior root tears of the medial meniscus. From March 2004 to August 2006, 26 patients (27 knees) with posterior root tears of the medial meniscus were treated with arthroscopic pullout suture repair surgery by the senior author. Of these, 20 consecutive patients (21 knees) with a minimum of 2 years' follow-up treated by arthroscopic pullout suture repair were analyzed. Clinical results by use of the Lysholm knee and Hospital for Special Surgery scores and radiographic grade were evaluated, both preoperatively and at final follow-up. In addition, the second-look arthroscopic findings for 10 knees were analyzed. A radiographic evaluation using the criteria of Kellgren and Lawrence at final follow-up showed an increase in radiographic grade by 1 grade in only 1 knee. On the second-look arthroscopies performed in 10 knees (47.6%), all repaired menisci had healed completely without additional chondral lesions in the knee. The mean Hospital for Special Surgery scores improved from 61.1 preoperatively to 93.8 at final follow-up (P < .0001), and the mean preoperative Lysholm knee scores improved from 57.0 to 93.1 at final follow-up (P < .0001). Retear was found in 1 knee at the 6-month follow-up, and reoperation was performed with the same procedure used for the index surgery. Arthroscopic pullout suture repair is an effective treatment for alleviating meniscal symptoms in patients with a symptomatic posterior root tear of the medial meniscus with degenerated articular cartilage of less than grade III. In addition, no discernable degenerative arthritic changes were found in terms of radiographic features with our limited short-term follow-up. Level IV, therapeutic case series.

  12. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  13. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    PubMed Central

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  14. Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

    2013-11-01

    This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

  15. Research on response spectrum of dam based on scenario earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Yushan

    2017-10-01

    Taking a large hydropower station as an example, the response spectrum based on scenario earthquake is determined. Firstly, the potential source of greatest contribution to the site is determined on the basis of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Secondly, the magnitude and epicentral distance of the scenario earthquake are calculated according to the main faults and historical earthquake of the potential seismic source zone. Finally, the response spectrum of scenario earthquake is calculated using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations. The response spectrum based on scenario earthquake method is less than the probability-consistent response spectrum obtained by PSHA method. The empirical analysis shows that the response spectrum of scenario earthquake considers the probability level and the structural factors, and combines the advantages of the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods. It is easy for people to accept and provide basis for seismic engineering of hydraulic engineering.

  16. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  17. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

  18. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    PubMed

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  19. Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David

    2018-06-01

    The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 °C not exceed, a 1.5 °C with overshoot and a 2.0 °C) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize. In this study an empirical model of the relation between crop yield anomalies and temperature and precipitation changes, with or without the inclusion of CO2 fertilization effects, is used to produce ensembles of time series of yield outcomes on a yearly basis over the course of the 21st century, for each scenario. The 21st century is divided into 10 year windows starting from 2020, within which the statistical significance and the magnitude of the differences in yield changes between pairs of scenarios are assessed, thus evaluating if and when benefits of mitigations appear, and how substantial they are. Additionally, a metric of extreme heat tailored to the individual crops (number of days during the growing season above a crop-specific threshold) is used to measure exposure to harmful temperatures under the different scenarios. If CO2 effects are not included, statistically significant differences in yields of both crops appear as early as the 2030s but the magnitude of the differences remains below 3% of the historical baseline in all cases until the second part of the century. In the later decades of the 21st century, differences remain small and eventually stop being statistically significant between the two scenarios stabilizing at 1.5 °C, while differences between these two lower scenarios and the 2.0 °C scenario grow to about 4%. The inclusion of CO2 effects erases all significant benefits of mitigation for wheat, while the significance of differences is maintained for maize yields between the higher and the two lower scenarios, albeit with smaller benefits in magnitude. Changes in extremes are significant within each of the scenarios

  20. Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    Thomason, Study Co-Lead Zachary S. Rabold, Sub-Task Lead Ylli Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario... Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual iii Preface This document reports the...vii Appendices A. Identifying Scenario Components...........................................................A-1 B . Acronyms

  1. TCL2 Ocean Scenario Replay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mohlenbrink, Christoph P.; Omar, Faisal Gamal; Homola, Jeffrey R.

    2017-01-01

    This is a video replay of system data that was generated from the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Technical Capability Level (TCL) 2 flight demonstration in Nevada and rendered in Google Earth. What is depicted in the replay is a particular set of flights conducted as part of what was referred to as the Ocean scenario. The test range and surrounding area are presented followed by an overview of operational volumes. System messaging is also displayed as well as a replay of all of the five test flights as they occurred.

  2. Estimated values of carbon sequestration resulting from forest management scenarios

    Treesearch

    R. Bluffstone; J. Coulston; R.G. Haight; J. Kline; S. Polasky; D.N. Wear; K. Zook

    2017-01-01

    Recent USDA policies, such as the Building Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture and Forestry, aim to sequester and mitigate greenhouse gases in the forestry and agriculture sectors in the United States. To make informed decisions, the USDA will need to evaluate the carbon benefits of various potential policies. In this paper, we use detailed forest inventory data to...

  3. From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

    1994-03-01

    The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

  4. Towards the new CH2018 climate scenarios for Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Schär, Christoph; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Knutti, Reto; Liniger, Mark; Strassmann, Kuno

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing demand for regional assessments of future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems to inform and facilitate appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are consistent and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). Since then, new climate model simulations have become available and the scientific understanding has improved. It is hence desirable to update these national scenarios. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS), a network consisting of several federal offices and academic partners. The CH2018 scenarios will build primarily upon the latest Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations assuming different pathways of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared to CH2011, more emphasis will be put on changes in extremes and in putting the projected changes in the context of observed variability. Results of a recently conducted survey on end-user needs in Switzerland will guide the development process toward the CH2018 scenarios. It ensures that the scenarios are presented and communicated in a user-oriented format and find a wide applicability across different sectors in Switzerland. In the presentation we will show the full methodological setup to generate the CH2018 scenarios and how consistency across the methods and products is maximized. First results on mean changes and selected indices will be presented. In terms of dissemination, the results of the user survey show the necessity to address all different user types of climate scenarios, especially the non-experts. Compared to CH2011, this implies a stronger focus on consulting, condensing complex information and providing tutorials. In the presentation, we will outline our plans on dissemination in order to adequately

  5. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    PubMed

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  6. The Role of Perpetrator Motivation in Two Crime Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sizemore, O. J.

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the…

  7. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  8. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake?The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions.Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by

  9. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to includemore » alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.« less

  10. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

  11. Student experience of a scenario-centred curriculum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-06-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and laboratory classes and to develop generic skills including team working and communication. Student experience of the first two years the old and new curricula were evaluated using a modified Course Experience Questionnaire. The results showed that students on the new programme were motivated by the scenarios and perceived better generic skills development, but had a lower perception of teaching quality and the development of design skills. The results of the survey support the implementation new curriculum but highlight the importance of strong integration between conventional teaching and scenarios, and the challenges of adapting teaching styles to suit.

  12. Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

  13. Grand unified brane world scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arai, Masato; Blaschke, Filip; Eto, Minoru; Sakai, Norisuke

    2017-12-01

    We present a field theoretical model unifying grand unified theory (GUT) and brane world scenario. As a concrete example, we consider S U (5 ) GUT in 4 +1 dimensions where our 3 +1 dimensional spacetime spontaneously arises on five domain walls. A field-dependent gauge kinetic term is used to localize massless non-Abelian gauge fields on the domain walls and to assure the charge universality of matter fields. We find the domain walls with the symmetry breaking S U (5 )→S U (3 )×S U (2 )×U (1 ) as a global minimum and all the undesirable moduli are stabilized with the mass scale of MGUT. Profiles of massless standard model particles are determined as a consequence of wall dynamics. The proton decay can be exponentially suppressed.

  14. Combinatorial structure of genome rearrangements scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne

    2010-09-01

    In genome rearrangement theory, one of the elusive questions raised in recent years is the enumeration of rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. This problem is related to the uniform generation of rearrangement scenarios and the derivation of tests of statistical significance of the properties of these scenarios. Here we give an exact formula for the number of double-cut-and-join (DCJ) rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. We also construct effective bijections between the set of scenarios that sort a component as well studied combinatorial objects such as parking functions, labeled trees, and prüfer codes.

  15. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  16. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    SciTech Connect

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications; Ekener, Elisabeth

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach,more » and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.« less

  17. Assessment of Drought Scenario in Western Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, V. P.; Khatiwada, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    Drought is a frequent phenomenon in relatively drier western Nepal. Lack of hydro-climatic information with wider spatial coverage is hindering effective assessment of the drought events. Furthermore, drought assessment is not getting adequate attention in Nepal. This study aims to develop drought scenario for Western Nepal by evaluating various types of drought indices in Karnali River Basin (area = 4,6150 km2) and recommend the most suited set of indices for data-poor regions. On the climatic data at ten stations, drought indices were calculated from following seven selected indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), (self-calibrating) Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI), and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI). Initial results reflect that the basin is affected by severe meteorological drought. Most of the indices show the extreme dryness scenario during the years 1984-85, 1992-93, 1995, 2000, 20002, 2008-09, and 2012. The results from the stations with long-term temperature and precipitation data sets showed a higher (up to 0.9) correlation between SPI and RDI than for SPEI and other Palmer Drought Indices, which ranged from 0.6 to 0.8 only. This suggests ability of SPI to represent magnitude and duration of the drought events fairly well in the study basin, and therefore, has potential to represent drought dynamics in data-poor regions. Keywords: Drought; Karnali River Basin; Nepal Himalaya

  18. Technical Feasibility Assessment of Lunar Base Mission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magelssen, Trygve ``Spike''; Sadeh, Eligar

    2005-02-01

    Investigation of the literature pertaining to lunar base (LB) missions and the technologies required for LB development has revealed an information gap that hinders technical feasibility assessment. This information gap is the absence of technical readiness levels (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) and information pertaining to the criticality of the critical enabling technologies (CETs) that enable mission success. TRL is a means of identifying technical readiness stages of a technology. Criticality is defined as the level of influence the CET has on the mission scenario. The hypothesis of this research study is that technical feasibility is a function of technical readiness and technical readiness is a function of criticality. A newly developed research analysis method is used to identify the technical feasibility of LB mission scenarios. A Delphi is used to ascertain technical readiness levels and CET criticality-to-mission. The research analysis method is applied to the Delphi results to determine the technical feasibility of the LB mission scenarios that include: observatory, science research, lunar settlement, space exploration gateway, space resource utilization, and space tourism. The CETs identified encompasses four major system level technologies of: transportation, life support, structures, and power systems. Results of the technical feasibility assessment show the observatory and science research LB mission scenarios to be more technical ready out of all the scenarios, but all mission scenarios are in very close proximity to each other in regard to criticality and TRL and no one mission scenario stands out as being absolutely more technically ready than any of the other scenarios. What is significant and of value are the Delphi results concerning CET criticality-to-mission and the TRL values evidenced in the Tables that can be used by anyone assessing the technical feasibility of LB missions.

  19. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    -motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

  20. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  1. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-04-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

  2. Project Icarus: Stakeholder Scenarios for an Interstellar Exploration Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hein, A. M.; Tziolas, A. C.; Osborne, R.

    The Project Icarus Study Group's objective is to design a mainly fusion-propelled interstellar probe. The starting point are the results of the Daedalus study, which was conducted by the British Interplanetary Society during the 1970's. As the Daedalus study already indicated, interstellar probes will be the result of a large scale, decade-long development program. To sustain a program over such long periods, the commitment of key stakeholders is vital. Although previous publications identified political and societal preconditions to an interstellar exploration program, there is a lack of more specific scientific and political stakeholder scenarios. This paper develops stakeholder scenarios which allow for a more detailed sustainability assessment of future programs. For this purpose, key stakeholder groups and their needs are identified and scientific and political scenarios derived. Political scenarios are based on patterns of past space programs but unprecedented scenarios are considered as well. Although it is very difficult to sustain an interstellar exploration program, there are scenarios in which this seems to be possible, e.g. the discovery of life within the solar system and on an exoplanet, a global technology development program, and dual-use of technologies for defence and security purposes. This is a submission of the Project Icarus Study Group.

  3. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  4. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

  5. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documentsmore » data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.« less

  6. Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-08-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  7. Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-01-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  8. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors. The performance measures include error analysis, coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and a new weighted rank method. These performance metrics only provide useful information about the overall model performance. Note that MPESA is based on the separation of observed and simulated time series into magnitude and sequence components. The separation of time series into magnitude and sequence components and the reconstruction back to time series provides diagnostic insights to modelers. For example, traditional approaches lack the capability to identify if the source of uncertainty in the simulated data is due to the quality of the input data or the way the analyst adjusted the model parameters. This report presents a suite of model diagnostics that identify if mismatches between observed and simulated data result from magnitude or sequence related errors. MPESA offers graphical and statistical options that allow HSPF users to compare observed and simulated time series and identify the parameter values to adjust or the input data to modify. The scenario analysis part of the too

  9. Agricultural Baseline (BL0) scenario

    DOE Data Explorer

    Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinckel, Chad M [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154)

    2016-07-13

    Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the reference case for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios. The agricultural baseline runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used. Date the data set was last modified: 02/12/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: simulation was developed without offering a farmgate price to energy crops or residues (i.e., building on both the USDA 2015 baseline and the agricultural census data (USDA NASS 2014). Data generated are .txt output files by year, simulation identifier, county code (1-3109). Instruments used: POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B) supplied by the University of Tennessee APAC The quality assurance and quality control that have been applied: • Check for negative planted area, harvested area, production, yield and cost values. • Check if harvested area exceeds planted area for annuals. • Check FIPS codes.

  10. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment.

    PubMed

    Kunkel, Kenneth E; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  11. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    DOE PAGES

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scalesmore » and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.« less

  12. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  13. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  14. A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

    PubMed

    Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2015-09-15

    Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

  15. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

  16. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  17. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  18. User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

  19. Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model.

    PubMed

    Kardaetz, Sascha; Strube, Torsten; Brüggemann, Rainer; Nützmann, Gunnar

    2008-07-01

    We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.

  20. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  1. The Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity.

    PubMed

    Niedermaier, Max; Reuter, Martin

    2006-01-01

    The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity is reviewed, according to which a renormalizable quantum theory of the gravitational field is feasible which reconciles asymptotically safe couplings with unitarity. The evidence from symmetry truncations and from the truncated flow of the effective average action is presented in detail. A dimensional reduction phenomenon for the residual interactions in the extreme ultraviolet links both results. For practical reasons the background effective action is used as the central object in the quantum theory. In terms of it criteria for a continuum limit are formulated and the notion of a background geometry self-consistently determined by the quantum dynamics is presented. Self-contained appendices provide prerequisites on the background effective action, the effective average action, and their respective renormalization flows.

  2. Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2018-03-01

    An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

  3. Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

    PubMed

    Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

    2018-05-08

    Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

  4. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  5. Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

    2010-05-01

    The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are

  6. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  7. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  8. Design and Effects of Scenario Educational Software.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keegan, Mark

    1993-01-01

    Describes the development of educational computer software called scenario software that was designed to incorporate advances in cognitive, affective, and physiological research. Instructional methods are outlined; the need to change from didactic methods to discovery learning is explained; and scenario software design features are discussed. (24…

  9. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  10. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  11. Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

  12. Rare Autosomal Recessive Cardiac Valvular Form of Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome Results from Mutations in the COL1A2 Gene That Activate the Nonsense-Mediated RNA Decay Pathway

    PubMed Central

    Schwarze, Ulrike; Hata, Ryu-Ichiro; McKusick, Victor A.; Shinkai, Hiroshi; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Pyeritz, Reed E.; Byers, Peter H.

    2004-01-01

    Splice site mutations in the COL1A2 gene of type I collagen can give rise to forms of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS) because of partial or complete skipping of exon 6, as well as to mild, moderate, or lethal forms of osteogenesis imperfecta as a consequence of skipping of other exons. We identified three unrelated individuals with a rare recessively inherited form of EDS (characterized by joint hypermobility, skin hyperextensibility, and cardiac valvular defects); in two of them, COL1A2 messenger RNA (mRNA) instability results from compound heterozygosity for splice site mutations in the COL1A2 gene, and, in the third, it results from homozygosity for a nonsense codon. The splice site mutations led to use of cryptic splice donor sites, creation of a downstream premature termination codon, and extremely unstable mRNA. In the wild-type allele, the two introns (IVS11 and IVS24) in which these mutations occurred were usually spliced slowly in relation to their respective immediate upstream introns. In the mutant alleles, the upstream intron was removed, so that exon skipping could not occur. In the context of the mutation in IVS24, computer-generated folding of a short stretch of mRNA surrounding the mutation site demonstrated realignment of the relationships between the donor and acceptor sites that could facilitate use of a cryptic donor site. These findings suggest that the order of intron removal is an important variable in prediction of mutation outcome at splice sites and that folding of the nascent mRNA could be one element that contributes to determination of order of splicing. The complete absence of proα2(I) chains has the surprising effect of producing cardiac valvular disease without bone involvement. PMID:15077201

  13. Rare autosomal recessive cardiac valvular form of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome results from mutations in the COL1A2 gene that activate the nonsense-mediated RNA decay pathway.

    PubMed

    Schwarze, Ulrike; Hata, Ryu-Ichiro; McKusick, Victor A; Shinkai, Hiroshi; Hoyme, H Eugene; Pyeritz, Reed E; Byers, Peter H

    2004-05-01

    Splice site mutations in the COL1A2 gene of type I collagen can give rise to forms of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS) because of partial or complete skipping of exon 6, as well as to mild, moderate, or lethal forms of osteogenesis imperfecta as a consequence of skipping of other exons. We identified three unrelated individuals with a rare recessively inherited form of EDS (characterized by joint hypermobility, skin hyperextensibility, and cardiac valvular defects); in two of them, COL1A2 messenger RNA (mRNA) instability results from compound heterozygosity for splice site mutations in the COL1A2 gene, and, in the third, it results from homozygosity for a nonsense codon. The splice site mutations led to use of cryptic splice donor sites, creation of a downstream premature termination codon, and extremely unstable mRNA. In the wild-type allele, the two introns (IVS11 and IVS24) in which these mutations occurred were usually spliced slowly in relation to their respective immediate upstream introns. In the mutant alleles, the upstream intron was removed, so that exon skipping could not occur. In the context of the mutation in IVS24, computer-generated folding of a short stretch of mRNA surrounding the mutation site demonstrated realignment of the relationships between the donor and acceptor sites that could facilitate use of a cryptic donor site. These findings suggest that the order of intron removal is an important variable in prediction of mutation outcome at splice sites and that folding of the nascent mRNA could be one element that contributes to determination of order of splicing. The complete absence of pro alpha 2(I) chains has the surprising effect of producing cardiac valvular disease without bone involvement.

  14. Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

    2013-12-01

    In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario

  15. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    PubMed Central

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  16. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    PubMed

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  17. Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

    PubMed Central

    Leufkens, H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F.; Bakker, A.; Dukes, G.

    1994-01-01

    Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future. PMID:7987110

  18. Olive production systems on sloping land: prospects and scenarios.

    PubMed

    de Graaff, Jan; Duran Zuazo, Victor-Hugo; Jones, Nádia; Fleskens, Luuk

    2008-11-01

    The ultimate objective of the EU Olivero project was to improve the quality of life of the rural population and to assure the sustainable use of the natural resources of land and water in the sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) areas in Southern Europe. One specific objective was to develop, with end-users, alternative future scenarios for olive orchards in the five Olivero target areas. This paper discusses the development of these scenarios, and their socio-economic and environmental effects. After presenting the different production systems (SMOPS) and their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, a general overview is given of the medium- and long-term prospects. These have been validated by experts from the olive sector and foresee changes towards abandonment, intensification and organic production. On balance, the changes could lead to lower production of some target areas in future. An analysis of major external factors affecting the future development of SMOPS indicates there will be labour shortages and increased wage rates, reduced subsidies and constant or rising olive oil prices. On the basis of these assumptions, four future scenarios are developed for the five target areas, with the help of a Linear Programming simulation model. The results are presented for two target areas. For the Trás-os-Montes target area in Portugal, three of the four tested scenarios point to a high level of abandonment, while in the most positive scenario the areas under semi-intensive low input and organic SMOPS increase. In the Granada and Jaen target area in Spain, all scenarios hint at intensification, and only the orchards on the steepest slopes are likely to be abandoned. The direction and extent of environmental effects (erosion, fire risk, pollution, water use and biodiversity) differ per scenario, as do the extent of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures.

  19. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  20. Logistics of a Lunar Based Solar Power Satellite Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melissopoulos, Stefanos

    1995-01-01

    A logistics system comprised of two orbital stations for the support of a 500 GW space power satellite scenario in a geostationary orbit was investigated in this study. A subsystem mass model, a mass flow model and a life cycle cost model were developed. The results regarding logistics cost and burden rates show that the transportation cost contributed the most (96%) to the overall cost of the scenario. The orbital stations at a geostationary and at a lunar orbit contributed 4 % to that cost.

  1. Simulation of Lunar Surface Communications Network Exploration Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linsky, Thomas W.; Bhasin, Kul B.; White, Alex; Palangala, Srihari

    2006-01-01

    Simulations and modeling of surface-based communications networks provides a rapid and cost effective means of requirement analysis, protocol assessments, and tradeoff studies. Robust testing in especially important for exploration systems, where the cost of deployment is high and systems cannot be easily replaced or repaired. However, simulation of the envisioned exploration networks cannot be achieved using commercial off the shelf network simulation software. Models for the nonstandard, non-COTS protocols used aboard space systems are not readily available. This paper will address the simulation of realistic scenarios representative of the activities which will take place on the surface of the Moon, including selection of candidate network architectures, and the development of an integrated simulation tool using OPNET modeler capable of faithfully modeling those communications scenarios in the variable delay, dynamic surface environments. Scenarios for exploration missions, OPNET development, limitations, and simulations results will be provided and discussed.

  2. A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2017-02-16

    A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

  3. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    SciTech Connect

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced tomore » 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.« less

  4. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  5. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of

  6. Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

    PubMed

    Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

    2015-01-01

    adjust time to arrival triggers for the pedestrian actions. This article discusses the rationale behind creating the simulator scenarios and some of the procedural considerations for conducting this type of research. Crash analyses can be used to construct test scenarios for driver behavior evaluations using driving simulators. By considering trajectories, roadway, and environmental conditions of real-world crashes, representative virtual scenarios can serve as safe test beds for advanced driver assistance systems. The results of such research can be used to inform pedestrian crash avoidance/mitigation systems by identifying driver error, driver response time, and driver response choice (i.e., steering vs. braking).

  7. Compound heterozygous mutations in SLC30A2/ZnT2 results in low milk zinc concentrations: a novel mechanism for zinc deficiency in a breast-fed infant.

    PubMed

    Itsumura, Naoya; Inamo, Yasuji; Okazaki, Fumiko; Teranishi, Fumie; Narita, Hiroshi; Kambe, Taiho; Kodama, Hiroko

    2013-01-01

    Zinc concentrations in breast milk are considerably higher than those of the maternal serum, to meet the infant's requirements for normal growth and development. Thus, effective mechanisms ensuring secretion of large amounts of zinc into the milk operate in mammary epithelial cells during lactation. ZnT2 was recently found to play an essential role in the secretion of zinc into milk. Heterozygous mutations of human ZnT2 (hZnT2), including H54R and G87R, in mothers result in low (>75% reduction) secretion of zinc into the breast milk, and infants fed on the milk develop transient neonatal zinc deficiency. We identified two novel missense mutations in the SLC30A2/ZnT2 gene in a Japanese mother with low milk zinc concentrations (>90% reduction) whose infant developed severe zinc deficiency; a T to C transition (c.454T>C) at exon 4, which substitutes a tryptophan residue with an arginine residue (W152R), and a C to T transition (c.887C>T) at exon 7, which substitutes a serine residue with a leucine residue (S296L). Biochemical characterization using zinc-sensitive DT40 cells indicated that the W152R mutation abolished the abilities to transport zinc and to form a dimer complex, indicating a loss-of-function mutation. The S296L mutation retained both abilities but was extremely destabilized. The two mutations were found on different alleles, indicating that the genotype of the mother with low milk zinc was compound heterozygous. These results show novel compound heterozygous mutations in the SLC30A2/ZnT2 gene causing zinc deficiency in a breast-fed infant.

  8. Compound Heterozygous Mutations in SLC30A2/ZnT2 Results in Low Milk Zinc Concentrations: A Novel Mechanism for Zinc Deficiency in a Breast-Fed Infant

    PubMed Central

    Itsumura, Naoya; Inamo, Yasuji; Okazaki, Fumiko; Teranishi, Fumie; Narita, Hiroshi; Kambe, Taiho; Kodama, Hiroko

    2013-01-01

    Zinc concentrations in breast milk are considerably higher than those of the maternal serum, to meet the infant's requirements for normal growth and development. Thus, effective mechanisms ensuring secretion of large amounts of zinc into the milk operate in mammary epithelial cells during lactation. ZnT2 was recently found to play an essential role in the secretion of zinc into milk. Heterozygous mutations of human ZnT2 (hZnT2), including H54R and G87R, in mothers result in low (>75% reduction) secretion of zinc into the breast milk, and infants fed on the milk develop transient neonatal zinc deficiency. We identified two novel missense mutations in the SLC30A2/ZnT2 gene in a Japanese mother with low milk zinc concentrations (>90% reduction) whose infant developed severe zinc deficiency; a T to C transition (c.454T>C) at exon 4, which substitutes a tryptophan residue with an arginine residue (W152R), and a C to T transition (c.887C>T) at exon 7, which substitutes a serine residue with a leucine residue (S296L). Biochemical characterization using zinc-sensitive DT40 cells indicated that the W152R mutation abolished the abilities to transport zinc and to form a dimer complex, indicating a loss-of-function mutation. The S296L mutation retained both abilities but was extremely destabilized. The two mutations were found on different alleles, indicating that the genotype of the mother with low milk zinc was compound heterozygous. These results show novel compound heterozygous mutations in the SLC30A2/ZnT2 gene causing zinc deficiency in a breast-fed infant. PMID:23741301

  9. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  10. The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Reports of Resilience

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Coons, Laura M.; O'barr, Gregory; Khatami, Shiva

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of scenario planning on participant ratings of resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The research design is a quasi experimental pretest/posttest with treatment and control groups. Random selection or assignment was not achieved. Findings: Results show a significant difference in…

  11. Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-12-01

    Analyzing the previous model using a design of experiments (DOE) and regression analysis provides critical information about the associated operational...from experimentation. The resulting system requirements can be used to revisit the design requirements and develop a more robust system. This process...stressor scenarios for acceptance testing. Analyzing the previous model using a design of experiments (DOE) and regression analysis provides critical

  12. Considerations in linking energy scenario modeling and Life Cycle Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) has been exploring approaches for estimating U.S. anthropogenic air pollutant emissions through the mid-21st century. As a result, we have developed the Emission Scenario Projection methodology, or ESP. In this document, we pr...

  13. Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities

    Treesearch

    Julie A. Vano; John B. Kim; David E. Rupp; Philip W. Mote

    2015-01-01

    Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the...

  14. AERIS - applications for the environment : real-time information synthesis : eco-lanes operational scenario modeling report.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-12-01

    This report constitutes the detailed modeling and evaluation results of the Eco-Lanes Operational Scenario defined by the Applications for the Environment: Real-Time Information Synthesis (AERIS) Program. The Operational Scenario constitutes six appl...

  15. Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

    2018-01-01

    As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

  16. Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment.

    PubMed

    Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

    2018-02-05

    As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8-61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9-58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3-45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47, and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security.

  17. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  18. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  19. Scenarios for the Evolution of Asteroid Belts

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2012-11-01

    This illustration shows three possible scenarios for the evolution of asteroid belts. At the top, a Jupiter-size planet migrates through the asteroid belt, scattering material and inhibiting the formation of life on planets.

  20. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  1. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016963 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  2. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016965 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  3. Kondratyev and Skripochka during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016976 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonauts Dmitry Kondratyev (left) and Oleg Skripochka, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, look over a procedures manual during an emergency scenarios drill in the Harmony node of the International Space Station.

  4. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016970 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (right) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  5. Photon and a preferred frame scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rembieliński, Jakub; Ciborowski, Jacek

    2018-06-01

    Structure of the space of photonic states is discussed in the context of a working hypothesis of existence of a preferred frame for photons. Two polarization experiments are proposed to test the preferred frame scenario.

  6. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-01-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  7. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-05-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  8. Augmented standard model and the simplest scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Tai Tsun; Wu, Sau Lan

    2015-11-01

    The experimental discovery of the Higgs particle in 2012 by the ATLAS Collaboration and the CMS Collaboration at CERN ushers in a new era of particle physics. On the basis of these data, scalar quarks and scalar leptons are added to each generation of quarks and leptons. The resulting augmented standard model has fermion-boson symmetry for each of three generations, but only one Higgs doublet giving masses to all the elementary particles. A specific special case, the simplest scenario, is studied in detail. In this case, there are twenty six quadratic divergences, and all these divergences are cancelled provided that one single relation between the masses is satisfied. This mass relation contains a great deal of information, and in particular determines the masses of all the right-handed scalar quarks and scalar leptons, while gives relations for the masses of the left-handed ones. An alternative procedure is also given with a different starting point and less reliance on the experimental data. The result is of course the same.

  9. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  10. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial polar regions is reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  11. Measuring Workload Differences Between Short-term Memory and Long-term Memory Scenarios in a Simulated Flight Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berg, S. L.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1984-01-01

    Four highly experienced Air Force pilots each flew four simulated flight scenarios. Two scenarios required a great deal of aircraft maneuvering. The other two scenarios involved less maneuvering, but required remembering a number of items. All scenarios were designed to be equaly challenging. Pilot's Subjective Ratings for Activity-level, Complexity, Difficulty, Stress, and Workload were higher for the manuevering scenarios than the memory scenarios. At a moderate workload level, keeping the pilots active resulted in better aircraft control. When required to monitor and remember items, aircraft control tended to decrease. Pilots tended to weigh information about the spatial positioning and performance of their aircraft more heavily than other items.

  12. New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

    2007-01-01

    A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

  13. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  14. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius]. The first part of the work describes the numerical modelling and the methodology adopted to evaluate the resistance of buildings under the combined action of volcanic phenomena. Those considered here for this multi-hazard approach are limited to the following: earthquakes, pyroclastic flows and ash falls. Because of the lack of a systematic and extensive database of building damages observed after eruptions of such intensity of the past, approaches to this work must take a hybrid form of stochastic and deterministic analyses, taking into account written histories of volcanic eruptions and expertise from field geologists to build up a semi-deterministic model of the possible combinations of the above hazards that are situated both in time and space. Once a range of possible scenarios has been determined, a full stochastic method can be applied to find a sub-set of permutations and combinations of possible effects. This preliminary study of identification of the possible combination of the phenomena, subdividing them into those which are discrete and those which are continuous in time and space, enables consideration the vulnerability functions of the combinations to be feasible. In previous works [Spence, R., Brichieri-Colombi, N., Holdsworth, F., Baxter, P., Zuccaro, G., 2004a. Vesuvius: building vulnerability and human casualty estimation for a pyroclastic flow (25 pages). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 133, 321-343. ISSN 0377-0273; Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., Petrazzuoli, S., Baxter, P.J., 2004b. The resistance of buildings to pyroclastic flows: theoretical and experimental studies in relation to Vesuvius, ASCE Nat. Hazards Rev. 5, 48-50. ISSN 1527-6988; Spence, R., Kelman

  16. Validation of Variations in Mental Workload as a Function of Scenario Difficulty: Traffic Density and Visibility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    Fluctuations in mental workload can be expected as a function of traffic density and visibility. The aim of the current investigation was to establish simulation scenarios that differed in attentional processing requirements. Four scenarios were created and tested representing two levels of traffic density (urban versus freeway) and two levels of visibility (clear versus foggy). An array of mental workload assessment measures were used to exam changes in attentional processing requirements in each scenario. The assessment array consisted of physiological (P300 amplitude and latency) and behavioral (RT and accuracy) indices. Preliminary results indicate that workload differs significantly as a function of traffic density in rural versus freeway scenarios. Workload also differs significantly in rural versus freeway scenarios as a function of visibility as observed by a significant interaction between the two variables of interest. Results are discussed in terms of their application for validating the difficulty level of simulation scenarios as a format for examining mental workload.

  17. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  18. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  19. With Climate Change Expanding Trade Routes in the Arctic and the Resultant Pursuit of Resources, it is Crucial that the Eight Arctic Nations Find Paths Towards Sustainability and Peace in the Region. Traditional Arctic Games are an Essential Scenario that Provide an Important Scale for Analysis Aimed at Medium-long term Sustainability in the Arctic.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilbourne, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    With climate change expanding trade routes in the Arctic and the resultant pursuit of oil, gas, mineral deposits, and fish, it is imperative that the eight Arctic countries find paths towards sustainability and peace in the region. Revisiting and understanding the traditional games of the indigenous people of these regions can go a long way towards helping those determining the region's future to work cooperatively towards these goals. Traditional games are an essential scenario that provide an important scale for analysis aimed at medium-long term sustainability in the Arctic. Throughout history the games we have played have been a testament about who we were, and are. From early Inuit bone and hunting games, to the gladiator contests of Ancient Rome, to the modern American game of baseball, the games we play have served as a statement of and a rehearsal for the life-world of that period and place. By reconnecting with and understanding the games of our past, we can build meaningful bridges between our past and present, and hopefully gain a better understanding of our modern world. The aforesaid are timely and important, especially as they relate to indigenous people throughout the world who are trying to preserve their traditions in a fast changing modern world. This presentation/paper will offer, based on my research and experiences in the Arctic, lessons learned from traditional Sámi and Inuit games that may help promote sustainability and peace in the Arctic world. Hopefully by acknowledging these lessons we can pursue a path forward, together reconnecting with the traditional games of the Arctic with the hope of building meaningful bridges between the past and present and moreover, helping to enhance our understanding of the important role traditional games can play in shaping an Arctic where sustainability and peace flourish.

  20. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  1. Bifurcation scenarios for bubbling transition.

    PubMed

    Zimin, Aleksey V; Hunt, Brian R; Ott, Edward

    2003-01-01

    Dynamical systems with chaos on an invariant submanifold can exhibit a type of behavior called bubbling, whereby a small random or fixed perturbation to the system induces intermittent bursting. The bifurcation to bubbling occurs when a periodic orbit embedded in the chaotic attractor in the invariant manifold becomes unstable to perturbations transverse to the invariant manifold. Generically the periodic orbit can become transversely unstable through a pitchfork, transcritical, period-doubling, or Hopf bifurcation. In this paper a unified treatment of the four types of bubbling bifurcation is presented. Conditions are obtained determining whether the transition to bubbling is soft or hard; that is, whether the maximum burst amplitude varies continuously or discontinuously with variation of the parameter through its critical value. For soft bubbling transitions, the scaling of the maximum burst amplitude with the parameter is derived. For both hard and soft transitions the scaling of the average interburst time with the bifurcation parameter is deduced. Both random (noise) and fixed (mismatch) perturbations are considered. Results of numerical experiments testing our theoretical predictions are presented.

  2. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

    PubMed

    Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  3. Does the thought of death contribute to the memory benefit of encoding with a survival scenario?

    PubMed

    Bugaiska, Aurélia; Mermillod, Martial; Bonin, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Four studies tested whether the thought of death contributes to the survival processing advantage found in memory tests (i.e., the survival effect). In the first study, we replicated the "Dying To Remember" (DTR) effect identified by Burns and colleagues whereby activation of death thoughts led to better retention than an aversive control situation. In Study 2, we compared an ancestral survival scenario, a modern survival scenario and a "life-after-death" scenario. The modern survival scenario and the dying scenario led to higher levels of recall than the ancestral scenario. In Study 3, we used a more salient death-thought scenario in which people imagine themselves on death row. Results showed that the "death-row" scenario yielded a level of recall similar to that of the ancestral survival condition. We also collected ratings of death-related thoughts (Studies 3 and 4) and of survival-related and planning thoughts (Study 4). The ratings indicated that death-related thoughts were induced more by the dying scenarios than by the survival scenarios, whereas the reverse was observed for both survival-related and planning thoughts. The findings are discussed in the light of two contrasting views of the influence of mortality salience in the survival effect.

  4. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  5. Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

    PubMed

    Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

    2017-01-01

    In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Safety in laboratories: Indian scenario.

    PubMed

    Mustafa, Ajaz; Farooq, A Jan; Qadri, Gj; S A, Tabish

    2008-07-01

    Health and safety in clinical laboratories is becoming an increasingly important subject as a result of emergence of highly infectious diseases such as Hepatitis and HIV. A cross sectional study was carried out to study the safety measures being adopted in clinical laboratories of India. Heads of laboratories of teaching hospitals of India were subjected to a standardized, pretested questionnaire. Response rate was 44.8%. only 60% of laboratories had person in-charge of safety in laboratory. Seventy three percent of laboratories had safety education program regarding hazards. In 91% of laboratories staff is using protective clothing while working in laboratories. Hazardous material regulations are followed in 78% of laboratories. Regular health check ups are carried among laboratory staff in 43.4% of laboratories.Safety manual is available in 56.5% of laboratories. 73.9% of laboratories are equipped with fire extinguishers. Fume cupboards are provided in 34.7% of laboratories and they are regularly checked in 87.5% of these laboratories. In 78.26% of laboratories suitable measures are taken to minimize formation of aerosols.In 95.6% of laboratories waste is disposed off as per bio-medical waste management handling rules. Laboratory of one private medical college was accredited with NABL and safety parameters were better in that laboratory. Installing safety engineered devices apparently contributes to significant decrease in injuries in laboratories; laboratory safety has to be a part of overall quality assurance programme in hospitals. Accreditation has to be made necessary for all laboratories.

  7. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario...

  8. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  9. Untangling Consequential Futures: Discovering Self-Consistent Regional and Global Multi-Sector Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts and adaptations to global change largely occur at regional scales, yet they are shaped globally through the interdependent evolution of the climate, energy, agriculture, and industrial systems. It is important for regional actors to account for the impacts of global changes on their systems in a globally consistent but regionally relevant way. This can be challenging because emerging global reference scenarios may not reflect regional challenges. Likewise, regionally specific scenarios may miss important global feedbacks. In this work, we contribute a scenario discovery framework to identify regionally-specific decision relevant scenarios from an ensemble of scenarios of global change. To this end, we generated a large ensemble of time evolving regional, multi-sector global change scenarios by a full factorial sampling of the underlying assumptions in the emerging shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Statistical and visual analytics were then used to discover which SSP assumptions are particularly consequential for various regions, considering a broad range of time-evolving metrics that encompass multiple spatial scales and sectors. In an illustrative examples, we identify the most important global change narratives to inform water resource scenarios for several geographic regions using the proposed scenario discovery framework. Our results highlight the importance of demographic and agricultural evolution compared to technical improvements in the energy sector. We show that narrowly sampling a few canonical reference scenarios provides a very narrow view of the consequence space, increasing the risk of tacitly ignoring major impacts. Even optimistic scenarios contain unintended, disproportionate regional impacts and intergenerational transfers of consequence. Formulating consequential scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures requires a better exploration of which quantitative measures of

  10. Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

  11. The Extent to Which Different 100% Clean, Renewable Energy Transition Scenarios can Reduce World Carbon Dioxide Levels to 350-400 ppmv by 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, M. Z.; Byrne, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on CO2's natural and anthropogenic emission rates and its removal rates by primarily water dissolution, photosysnthesis, and weathering. We compare modeled past CO2 from 1750 to 2015 with data then model projected future changes in CO2 under different energy emission scenarios, including two where 100% of the world's all-purpose energy (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture/forestry/fishing) is electrified, and the electricity is powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The scenarios are derived from country-by-country energy roadmaps found at http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html. In one 100% scenario, 80% of the conversion is assumed to occur by 2030 and 100%, by 2050. In the second, 80% is assumed to occur by 2050, and the rest by 2100. We also compare with an unrealistic but best-case 100% conversion scenario starting in 2015 and IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, B1, B2, and A1F1. Results will be shown, and conclusions, drawn about the practicality of reducing CO2 to 350-400 ppmv by 2100. These results have significant impact on current and future energy policy.

  12. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  13. The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

  14. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-10-01

    This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  15. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processesmore » will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.« less

  16. Advantages of Fast Ignition Scenarios with Two Hot Spots for Space Propulsion Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shmatov, M. L.

    The use of the fast ignition scenarios with the attempts to create two hot spots in one blob of the compressed thermonuclear fuel or, briefly, scenarios with two hot spots in space propulsion systems is proposed. The model, predicting that for such scenarios the probability pf of failure of ignition of thermonuclear microexplosion can be significantly less than that for the similar scenarios with the attempts to create one hot spot in one blob of the compressed fuel, is presented. For space propulsion systems consuming a relatively large amount of propellant, a decrease in pf due to the choice of the scenario with two hot spots can result in large, for example, two-fold, increase in the payload mass. Other advantages of the scenarios with two hot spots and some problems related to them are considered.

  17. Identifying regions vulnerable to habitat degradation under future irrigation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Acuña, Vicenç

    2016-11-01

    The loss and degradation of natural habitats is a primary cause of biodiversity decline. The increasing impacts of climate and land use change affect water availability, ultimately decreasing agricultural production. Areas devoted to irrigation have been increased to compensate this reduction, causing habitat and biodiversity losses, especially in regions undergoing severe water stress. These effects might intensify under global change, probably contributing to a decrease in habitat quality. We selected four European river basins across a gradient of water scarcity and irrigation agriculture. The habitat quality in the basins was assessed as a function of habitat suitability and threats under current and future global change scenarios of irrigation. Results revealed that the most threatened regions under future scenarios of global change were among those suffering of water scarcity and with bigger areas devoted to irrigation. Loss of habitat quality reached 10% in terrestrial and 25% in aquatic ecosystems under climate change scenarios involving drier conditions. The aquatic habitats were the most degraded in all scenarios, since they were affected by threats from both the terrestrial and the aquatic parts of the basin. By identifying in advance the regions most vulnerable to habitat and biodiversity loss, our approach can assist decision makers in deciding the conservation actions to be prioritized for mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change, particularly front the development of irrigation plans.

  18. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    PubMed

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-10-24

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model.

  19. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  20. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  1. Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.

    2000-01-01

    Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

  2. Characterization of AVHRR global cloud detection sensitivity based on CALIPSO-CALIOP cloud optical thickness information: demonstration of results based on the CM SAF CLARA-A2 climate data record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karlsson, Karl-Göran; Håkansson, Nina

    2018-02-01

    The sensitivity in detecting thin clouds of the cloud screening method being used in the CM SAF cloud, albedo and surface radiation data set from AVHRR data (CLARA-A2) cloud climate data record (CDR) has been evaluated using cloud information from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) onboard the CALIPSO satellite. The sensitivity, including its global variation, has been studied based on collocations of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and CALIOP measurements over a 10-year period (2006-2015). The cloud detection sensitivity has been defined as the minimum cloud optical thickness for which 50 % of clouds could be detected, with the global average sensitivity estimated to be 0.225. After using this value to reduce the CALIOP cloud mask (i.e. clouds with optical thickness below this threshold were interpreted as cloud-free cases), cloudiness results were found to be basically unbiased over most of the globe except over the polar regions where a considerable underestimation of cloudiness could be seen during the polar winter. The overall probability of detecting clouds in the polar winter could be as low as 50 % over the highest and coldest parts of Greenland and Antarctica, showing that a large fraction of optically thick clouds also remains undetected here. The study included an in-depth analysis of the probability of detecting a cloud as a function of the vertically integrated cloud optical thickness as well as of the cloud's geographical position. Best results were achieved over oceanic surfaces at mid- to high latitudes where at least 50 % of all clouds with an optical thickness down to a value of 0.075 were detected. Corresponding cloud detection sensitivities over land surfaces outside of the polar regions were generally larger than 0.2 with maximum values of approximately 0.5 over the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula. For polar land surfaces the values were close to 1 or higher with maximum values of 4.5 for the parts

  3. Characteristics of hybrid scenarios in KSTAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Youngho; Byun, Cheol-Sik; Na, Yong-Su; Kstar Team

    2017-10-01

    We report the characteristics of hybrid scenarios under development in KSTAR. Firstly, detailed definition of the hybrid scenario in KSTAR is described and categorized according to the MHD activities. The discharges exhibiting H89 >1.9, betaN >2.2 sustained more than 5*tauE at q95 <6.5 without or mild sawtooth are classified into the hybrid regime. Fishbones and neoclassical tearing modes are usually observed in this regime. Improved confinement in this regime is also confirmed with comparing general H-mode in KSTAR. Secondly, several experimental approaches are presented to access the hybrid regime. Here, four different recipes are described. Thirdly, the origin of the confinement enhancement is discussed. The role of the plasma rotation is found to be small in experiments where electron cyclotron heating is applied to reduce the toroidal rotation. The pedestal enhancement is thought to be the main reason for the confinement improvement in KSTAR hybrid scenarios.

  4. Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

    2013-04-01

    The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

  5. LGALS4, CEACAM6, TSPAN8, and COL1A2: Blood Markers for Colorectal Cancer-Validation in a Cohort of Subjects With Positive Fecal Immunochemical Test Result.

    PubMed

    Rodia, Maria Teresa; Solmi, Rossella; Pasini, Francesco; Nardi, Elena; Mattei, Gabriella; Ugolini, Giampaolo; Ricciardiello, Luigi; Strippoli, Pierluigi; Miglio, Rossella; Lauriola, Mattia

    2018-06-01

    A noninvasive blood test for the early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) is highly required. We evaluated a panel of 4 mRNAs as putative markers of CRC. We tested LGALS4, CEACAM6, TSPAN8, and COL1A2, referred to as the CELTiC panel, using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, on subjects with positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) results and undergoing colonoscopy. Using a nonparametric test and multinomial logistic model, FIT-positive subjects were compared with CRC patients and healthy individuals. All the genes of the CELTiC panel displayed statistically significant differences between the healthy subjects (n = 67), both low-risk (n = 36) and high-risk/CRC (n = 92) subjects, and those in the negative-colonoscopy, FIT-positive group (n = 36). The multinomial logistic model revealed LGALS4 was the most powerful marker discriminating the 4 groups. When assessing the diagnostic values by analysis of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs), the CELTiC panel reached an AUC of 0.91 (sensitivity, 79%; specificity, 94%) comparing normal subjects to low-risk subjects, and 0.88 (sensitivity, 75%; specificity, 87%) comparing normal and high-risk/CRC subjects. The comparison between the normal subjects and the negative-colonoscopy, FIT-positive group revealed an AUC of 0.93 (sensitivity, 82%; specificity, 97%). The CELTiC panel could represent a useful tool for discriminating subjects with positive FIT findings and for the early detection of precancerous adenomatous lesions and CRC. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. National Scale Prediction of Soil Carbon Sequestration under Scenarios of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izaurralde, R. C.; Thomson, A. M.; Potter, S. R.; Atwood, J. D.; Williams, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is gaining momentum as a tool to mitigate the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Texas A&M University, and USDA-NRCS used the EPIC model to develop national-scale predictions of soil carbon sequestration with adoption of no till (NT) under scenarios of climate change. In its current form, the EPIC model simulates soil C changes resulting from heterotrophic respiration and wind / water erosion. Representative modeling units were created to capture the climate, soil, and management variability at the 8-digit hydrologic unit (USGS classification) watershed scale. The soils selected represented at least 70% of the variability within each watershed. This resulted in 7,540 representative modeling units for 1,412 watersheds. Each watershed was assigned a major crop system: corn, soybean, spring wheat, winter wheat, cotton, hay, alfalfa, corn-soybean rotation or wheat-fallow rotation based on information from the National Resource Inventory. Each representative farm was simulated with conventional tillage and no tillage, and with and without irrigation. Climate change scenarios for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2045-2075) were selected from GCM model runs using the IPCC SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 from the UK Hadley Center (HadCM3) and US DOE PCM (PCM) models. Changes in mean and standard deviation of monthly temperature and precipitation were extracted from gridded files and applied to baseline climate (1960-1990) for each of the 1,412 modeled watersheds. Modeled crop yields were validated against historical USDA NASS county yields (1960-1990). The HadCM3 model predicted the most severe changes in climate parameters. Overall, there would be little difference between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Carbon offsets were calculated as the difference in soil C change between conventional and no till. Overall, C offsets during the first 30-y period (513 Tg C) are predicted to

  7. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  8. Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem

  9. Advanced ST plasma scenario simulations for NSTX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kessel, C. E.; Synakowski, E. J.; Bell, M. E.; Gates, D. A.; Harvey, R. W.; Kaye, S. M.; Mau, T. K.; Menard, J.; Phillips, C. K.; Taylor, G.; Wilson, R.; NSTX Research Team

    2005-08-01

    Integrated scenario simulations are done for NSTX that address four primary objectives for developing advanced spherical torus (ST) configurations: high β and high βN inductive discharges to study all aspects of ST physics in the high β regime; non-inductively sustained discharges for flattop times greater than the skin time to study the various current drive techniques; non-inductively sustained discharges at high β for flattop times much greater than a skin time which provides the integrated advanced ST target for NSTX and non-solenoidal startup and plasma current rampup. The simulations done here use the tokamak simulation code and are based on a discharge 109070. TRANSP analysis of the discharge provided the thermal diffusivities for electrons and ions, the neutral beam deposition profile and other characteristics. CURRAY is used to calculate the high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) heating depositions and current drive. GENRAY/CQL3D is used to establish the heating and CD deposition profiles for electron Bernstein waves (EBW). Analysis of the ideal MHD stability is done with JSOLVER, BALMSC and PEST2. The simulations indicate that the integrated advanced ST plasma is reachable, obtaining stable plasmas with βT ap 40% at βN's of 7.7-9, IP = 1.0 MA and BT = 0.35 T. The plasma is 100% non-inductive and has a flattop of four skin times. The resulting global energy confinement corresponds to a multiplier of H98(y),2 = 1.5. The simulations have demonstrated the importance of HHFW heating and CD, EBW off-axis CD, strong plasma shaping, density control and early heating/H-mode transition for producing and optimizing these plasma configurations.

  10. Radiation Protection for Lunar Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clowdsley, Martha S.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.; Anderson, Brooke M.; Anderson, Mark S.; Krizan, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Preliminary analyses of shielding requirements to protect astronauts from the harmful effects of radiation on both short-term and long-term lunar missions have been performed. Shielding needs for both solar particle events (SPEs) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure are discussed for transit vehicles and surface habitats. This work was performed under the aegis of two NASA initiatives. The first study was an architecture trade study led by Langley Research Center (LaRC) in which a broad range of vehicle types and mission scenarios were compared. The radiation analysis for this study primarily focused on the additional shielding mass required to protect astronauts from the rare occurrence of a large SPE. The second study, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), involved the design of lunar habitats. Researchers at LaRC were asked to evaluate the changes to mission architecture that would be needed if the surface stay were lengthened from a shorter mission duration of 30 to 90 days to a longer stay of 500 days. Here, the primary radiation concern was GCR exposure. The methods used for these studies as well as the resulting shielding recommendations are discussed. Recommendations are also made for more detailed analyses to minimize shielding mass, once preliminary vehicle and habitat designs have been completed. Here, methodologies are mapped out and available radiation analysis tools are described. Since, as yet, no dosimetric limits have been adopted for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO), radiation exposures are compared to LEO limits. Uncertainties associated with the LEO career effective dose limits and the effects of lowering these limits on shielding mass are also discussed.

  11. Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

    2015-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

  12. Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

    2015-01-01

    In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

  13. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  14. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  15. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  16. Convoy Protection under Multi-Threat Scenario

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-06-01

    14. SUBJECT TERMS antisubmarine warfare, convoy protection, screening, design of experiments, agent-based simulation 15. NUMBER OF...46 5. Scenarios 33–36 (Red Submarine Tactic-2) ...............................46 IV. DESIGN OF EXPERIMENT...47 C. NEARLY ORTHOGONAL LATIN HYPERCUBE DESIGN ............51 V. DATA ANALYSIS

  17. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  18. The Scenario of Gifted Education in Brazil

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wechsler, Solange Muglia; Fleith, Denise de Souza

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of gifted education in Brazil. A scenario of the education of the gifted is presented, including the official concept of giftedness as well as programs and services available to emphasize important contributions to the area. Although there are considerable advances regarding policies, practices,…

  19. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  20. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  1. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  2. A Scenario for the Future of Museums

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunningham, Mary Kay

    2009-01-01

    More than any other staff member, museum educators' knowledge and experience working with visitors make them uniquely qualified to take on leadership roles as museums transform themselves into lifelong learning organizations. The article encourages museum educators to initiate discussions about change by offering a fictional scenario of future…

  3. Chemical Data Reporting Byproduct and Recycling Scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document addresses a series of 18 industry scenarios and questions related to EPA’s Chemical Data Reporting (CDR) rule. The primary goal of this document is to help the regulated community comply with the requirements of the CDR rule.

  4. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  5. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  6. Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

  7. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  8. Genetic Ablation of Calcium-independent Phospholipase A2γ (iPLA2γ) Attenuates Calcium-induced Opening of the Mitochondrial Permeability Transition Pore and Resultant Cytochrome c Release*

    PubMed Central

    Moon, Sung Ho; Jenkins, Christopher M.; Kiebish, Michael A.; Sims, Harold F.; Mancuso, David J.; Gross, Richard W.

    2012-01-01

    Herein, we demonstrate that calcium-independent phospholipase A2γ (iPLA2γ) is a critical mechanistic participant in the calcium-induced opening of the mitochondrial permeability transition pore (mPTP). Liver mitochondria from iPLA2γ−/− mice were markedly resistant to calcium-induced swelling in the presence or absence of phosphate in comparison with wild-type littermates. Furthermore, the iPLA2γ enantioselective inhibitor (R)-(E)-6-(bromomethylene)-3-(1-naphthalenyl)-2H-tetrahydropyran-2-one ((R)-BEL) was markedly more potent than (S)-BEL in inhibiting mPTP opening in mitochondria from wild-type liver in comparison with hepatic mitochondria from iPLA2γ−/− mice. Intriguingly, low micromolar concentrations of long chain fatty acyl-CoAs and the non-hydrolyzable thioether analog of palmitoyl-CoA markedly accelerated Ca2+-induced mPTP opening in liver mitochondria from wild-type mice. The addition of l-carnitine enabled the metabolic channeling of acyl-CoA through carnitine palmitoyltransferases (CPT-1/2) and attenuated the palmitoyl-CoA-mediated amplification of calcium-induced mPTP opening. In contrast, mitochondria from iPLA2γ−/− mice were insensitive to fatty acyl-CoA-mediated augmentation of calcium-induced mPTP opening. Moreover, mitochondria from iPLA2γ−/− mouse liver were resistant to Ca2+/t-butyl hydroperoxide-induced mPTP opening in comparison with wild-type littermates. In support of these findings, cytochrome c release from iPLA2γ−/− mitochondria was dramatically decreased in response to calcium in the presence or absence of either t-butyl hydroperoxide or phenylarsine oxide in comparison with wild-type littermates. Collectively, these results identify iPLA2γ as an important mechanistic component of the mPTP, define its downstream products as potent regulators of mPTP opening, and demonstrate the integrated roles of mitochondrial bioenergetics and lipidomic flux in modulating mPTP opening promoting the activation of necrotic and

  9. High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

  10. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    DOE PAGES

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; ...

    2016-04-14

    Here in this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO 2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010-2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic costmore » of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO 2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO 2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO 2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts a 11.3% reduction under the ‘high’ carbon tax. The main reasons for this difference are differences in assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO 2 storage capacity, and the ability to

  11. Evaluation of introduction scenarios for a broadband access network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bocker, Geert-Jan; Cuthbert, Laurie; Gobbi, Roberta; Inch, Robert; Sara, Lini

    1995-02-01

    The provision of broadband services at a reasonable cost to residential and small business customers is one of the major challenges facing operators. The introduction of cost-effective systems considering the existing infrastructure is an important study. Within the RACE project 2024 Broadband Access Facilities, the economic and evolution aspects of different introduction scenarios of a broadband access system suitable for providing these services are investigated. This paper presents the final results of this study.

  12. Forced Imbibition in Porous Media: A Fourfold Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Odier, Céleste; Levaché, Bertrand; Santanach-Carreras, Enric; Bartolo, Denis

    2017-11-01

    We establish a comprehensive description of the patterns formed when a wetting liquid displaces a viscous fluid confined in a porous medium. Building on model microfluidic experiments, we evidence four imbibition scenarios all yielding different large-scale morphologies. Combining high-resolution imaging and confocal microscopy, we show that they originate from two liquid-entrainment transitions and a Rayleigh-Plateau instability at the pore scale. Finally, we demonstrate and explain the long-time coarsening of the resulting patterns.

  13. 2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Cole, Wesley; Mai, Trieu; Logan, Jeffrey

    The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the futuremore » direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.« less

  14. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  15. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

  16. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  17. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  18. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  19. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  20. Community Solar Scenario Tool | Integrated Energy Solutions | NREL

    Science.gov Websites

    Community Solar Scenario Tool Community Solar Scenario Tool The Community Solar Scenario Tool (CSST ) provides a "first cut" analysis of different community or shared solar program options. NREL sponsoring utility. Community Solar Scenario Tool -Beta Version Available as a Microsoft Excel file, which

  1. Evaluating different scenarios for Tradable Green Certificates by game theory approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghaffari, Meysam; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

    2018-06-01

    Right now employment of polices and tools to decrease the carbon emission through electricity generation from renewable resources is one of the most important problem in energy policy. Tradable Green Certificate (TGC) is an economics mechanism to support green power generation. Any country has the challenge to choose an appropriate policy and mechanism for design and implementation of TGC. The purpose of this study is to help policy makers to design and choose the best scenario of TGC by evaluating six scenarios, based on game theory approach. This study will be useful for increasing the effectiveness of TGC system in interaction with electricity market. Particularly, the competition between thermal and renewable power plants is modeled by mathematical modeling tools such as cooperative games like Nash and Stackelberg. Each game is modeled by taking into account of the two following policies. The results of the six scenarios and the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters have been evaluated by numerical studies. Finally, in order to evaluate the scenarios we calculated the level of social welfare in the all scenarios. The results of all models demonstrate that when the green electricity share (minimum requirement) increases the TGC price decreases. Moreover, in all scenarios when the minimum requirement is 100% then the maximum level of social welfare is not met. Also when the minimum requirement is less than 50%, the scenarios with the market TGC price policy have more social welfare in comparison with the scenarios with fixed TGC price policy.

  2. Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

  3. Modulus stabilization in a non-flat warped braneworld scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Indrani; SenGupta, Soumitra

    2017-05-01

    The stability of the modular field in a warped brane world scenario has been a subject of interest for a long time. Goldberger and Wise (GW) proposed a mechanism to achieve this by invoking a massive scalar field in the bulk space-time neglecting the back-reaction. In this work, we examine the possibility of stabilizing the modulus without bringing about any external scalar field. We show that instead of flat 3-branes as considered in Randall-Sundrum (RS) warped braneworld model, if one considers a more generalized version of warped geometry with de Sitter 3-brane, then the brane vacuum energy automatically leads to a modulus potential with a metastable minimum. Our result further reveals that in this scenario the gauge hierarchy problem can also be resolved for an appropriate choice of the brane's cosmological constant.

  4. Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arai, Masato; Kawai, Shinsuke; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-02-01

    We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5¯ minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

  5. Climate scenarios for the Truckee-Carson River system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, Michael; Sterle, Kelley; Simpson, Karen; Singletary, Loretta; Fitzgerald, Kelsey; McCarthy, Maureen

    2017-01-01

    In this study, the scenarios ultimately take the form of gridded, daily (maximum and minimum) temperatures and precipitation totals spanning the entire Truckee-Carson River System, from which meteorological inputs to various hydrologic, water-balance and watermanagement models can be extracted by other parts of the Water for the Seasons project and by other studies and stakeholders. Climate scenarios are constructed using: 1) survey data from interviews with 66 Truckee-Carson River System water-management and water-interest organizations to identify plausible drought and high-flow events that could stress the system irreparably; 2) input from the Stakeholder Affiliate Group and other modelers on the Water for the Seasons team to gain additional key stakeholder input with regard to organizational survey results and to identify the most pressing water-management issues being faced in the system; and 3) historical climate datasets used to simulate possible future conditions.

  6. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  7. Synchronization scenarios in the Winfree model of coupled oscillators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallego, Rafael; Montbrió, Ernest; Pazó, Diego

    2017-10-01

    Fifty years ago Arthur Winfree proposed a deeply influential mean-field model for the collective synchronization of large populations of phase oscillators. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the model for some special, analytically tractable cases. Adopting the thermodynamic limit, we derive an ordinary differential equation that exactly describes the temporal evolution of the macroscopic variables in the Ott-Antonsen invariant manifold. The low-dimensional model is then thoroughly investigated for a variety of pulse types and sinusoidal phase response curves (PRCs). Two structurally different synchronization scenarios are found, which are linked via the mutation of a Bogdanov-Takens point. From our results, we infer a general rule of thumb relating pulse shape and PRC offset with each scenario. Finally, we compare the exact synchronization threshold with the prediction of the averaging approximation given by the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model. At the leading order, the discrepancy appears to behave as an odd function of the PRC offset.

  8. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  9. Two alternative solar energy scenarios for Western Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakicenovic, N.

    1982-11-01

    Two limiting scenarios that lead to a sustainable energy system in Western Europe toward the end of the next century are described. The scenarios consider exclusively solar energy futures: one based on centralized solar technologies (hard scenario) and the other on decentralized user-oriented technologies (soft scenario). While both scenarios eliminate Western Europe's dependence on domestic and foreign fossil energy sources, the hard solar scenario requires substantial imports of solar produced hydrogen. Fundamental but different changes of the whole energy system, economic structure and lifestyles are necessary in order to achieve sustainable solar energy futures in the scenarios.

  10. Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

    2004-07-01

    This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

  11. Probabilistic forecast of long-term climate changes under different RCP scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, Andrei; Libardoni, Alex; Forest, Chris; Monier, Erwan

    2014-05-01

    Long-term response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing was investigated with the MIT Earth System Model of intermediate complexity version 2.2 (MESM2.2). The MESM2.2 consists of a 2D (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled to an anomaly diffusing ocean model. Climate sensitivity of the MESM can be varied using a cloud adjustment technique and rate of oceanic heat uptake can be varied by changing effective diffusion coefficient. An ensemble of four hundred simulations was carried out for the period 1860-2005 using historical forcing. Values of climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the aerosol forcing were drawn from the Libardoni and Forest (2013) distribution presented in the IPCC AR5. A 400-member ensemble was carried out for each of four different RCP scenarios from the year 2006 to the year 2500. By the end of the 21st century (2081-2100), the ensemble mean of surface air temperature increases, relative to 1986-2005 period, by 1.2, 1.8, 2.2 and 3.3oC for RCP26, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. Corresponding numbers for the ensemble of the CMPI5 models are 1.0, 1.8, 2.2 and 3.7oC. In spite of the forcing being fixed beyond year 2150 for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 and beyond 2250 for RCP8.5, surface air temperature keeps rising until the end of 25th century under these scenarios. The upper bound of the 90% probability interval increases significantly more than the mean. For the RCP4.5 scenario, the mean value of possible SAT change increases by 1.6oC from the end of the 21st century to the end of the 25th century, while the value of the 95th percentile increases by 3.2oC. Corresponding numbers for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 are 3.6 and 10.2oC for the medians and 7.0 and 14.5oC for the 95th percentiles, respectively. Such changes in the shape of probability distributions with time indicate an increase in the probability that surface warming will exceed a given value. For example, the probability of exceeding 3oC warming under the

  12. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  13. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-05

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

  14. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    PubMed

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. © 2011 IEEE

  15. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  16. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example.more » The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.« less

  17. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories.

    PubMed

    Brown, M J; Crouch, E

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km2 of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the water are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  18. Sampling and counting genome rearrangement scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Even for moderate size inputs, there are a tremendous number of optimal rearrangement scenarios, regardless what the model is and which specific question is to be answered. Therefore giving one optimal solution might be misleading and cannot be used for statistical inferring. Statistically well funded methods are necessary to sample uniformly from the solution space and then a small number of samples are sufficient for statistical inferring. Contribution In this paper, we give a mini-review about the state-of-the-art of sampling and counting rearrangement scenarios, focusing on the reversal, DCJ and SCJ models. Above that, we also give a Gibbs sampler for sampling most parsimonious labeling of evolutionary trees under the SCJ model. The method has been implemented and tested on real life data. The software package together with example data can be downloaded from http://www.renyi.hu/~miklosi/SCJ-Gibbs/ PMID:26452124

  19. Ocean acidification and warming scenarios increase microbioerosion of coral skeletons.

    PubMed

    Reyes-Nivia, Catalina; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Kline, David; Guldberg, Ove-Hoegh; Dove, Sophie

    2013-06-01

    Biological mediation of carbonate dissolution represents a fundamental component of the destructive forces acting on coral reef ecosystems. Whereas ocean acidification can increase dissolution of carbonate substrates, the combined impact of ocean acidification and warming on the microbioerosion of coral skeletons remains unknown. Here, we exposed skeletons of the reef-building corals, Porites cylindrica and Isopora cuneata, to present-day (Control: 400 μatm - 24 °C) and future pCO2 -temperature scenarios projected for the end of the century (Medium: +230 μatm - +2 °C; High: +610 μatm - +4 °C). Skeletons were also subjected to permanent darkness with initial sodium hypochlorite incubation, and natural light without sodium hypochlorite incubation to isolate the environmental effect of acidic seawater (i.e., Ωaragonite <1) from the biological effect of photosynthetic microborers. Our results indicated that skeletal dissolution is predominantly driven by photosynthetic microborers, as samples held in the dark did not decalcify. In contrast, dissolution of skeletons exposed to light increased under elevated pCO2 -temperature scenarios, with P. cylindrica experiencing higher dissolution rates per month (89%) than I. cuneata (46%) in the high treatment relative to control. The effects of future pCO2 -temperature scenarios on the structure of endolithic communities were only identified in P. cylindrica and were mostly associated with a higher abundance of the green algae Ostreobium spp. Enhanced skeletal dissolution was also associated with increased endolithic biomass and respiration under elevated pCO2 -temperature scenarios. Our results suggest that future projections of ocean acidification and warming will lead to increased rates of microbioerosion. However, the magnitude of bioerosion responses may depend on the structural properties of coral skeletons, with a range of implications for reef carbonate losses under warmer and more acidic oceans. © 2013

  20. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  1. Performance Evaluation of LoRa Considering Scenario Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Sanchez-Gomez, Jesus; Ballesta-Viñas, Juan

    2018-01-01

    New verticals within the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm such as smart cities, smart farming, or goods monitoring, among many others, are demanding strong requirements to the Radio Access Network (RAN) in terms of coverage, end-node’s power consumption, and scalability. The technologies employed so far to provide IoT scenarios with connectivity, e.g., wireless sensor network and cellular technologies, are not able to simultaneously cope with these three requirements. Thus, a novel solution known as Low Power - Wide Area Network (LP-WAN) has emerged as a promising alternative to provide with low-cost and low-power-consumption connectivity to end-nodes spread in a wide area. Concretely, the Long-Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) technology is one of the LP-WAN platforms that is receiving greater attention from both the industry and the academia. For that reason, in this work, a comprehensive performance evaluation of LoRaWAN under different environmental conditions is presented. The results are obtained from three real scenarios, namely, urban, suburban, and rural, considering both dynamic and static conditions, hence a discussion about the most proper LoRaWAN physical-layer configuration for each scenario is provided. Besides, a theoretical coverage study is also conducted by the use of a radio planning tool considering topographic maps and a precise propagation model. From the attained results, it can be concluded that it is necessary to evaluate the propagation conditions of the deployment scenario prior to the system implantation in order to reach a compromise between the robustness of the network and the transmission data-rate. PMID:29510524

  2. Performance Evaluation of LoRa Considering Scenario Conditions.

    PubMed

    Sanchez-Iborra, Ramon; Sanchez-Gomez, Jesus; Ballesta-Viñas, Juan; Cano, Maria-Dolores; Skarmeta, Antonio F

    2018-03-03

    New verticals within the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm such as smart cities, smart farming, or goods monitoring, among many others, are demanding strong requirements to the Radio Access Network (RAN) in terms of coverage, end-node's power consumption, and scalability. The technologies employed so far to provide IoT scenarios with connectivity, e.g., wireless sensor network and cellular technologies, are not able to simultaneously cope with these three requirements. Thus, a novel solution known as Low Power - Wide Area Network (LP-WAN) has emerged as a promising alternative to provide with low-cost and low-power-consumption connectivity to end-nodes spread in a wide area. Concretely, the Long-Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) technology is one of the LP-WAN platforms that is receiving greater attention from both the industry and the academia. For that reason, in this work, a comprehensive performance evaluation of LoRaWAN under different environmental conditions is presented. The results are obtained from three real scenarios, namely, urban, suburban, and rural, considering both dynamic and static conditions, hence a discussion about the most proper LoRaWAN physical-layer configuration for each scenario is provided. Besides, a theoretical coverage study is also conducted by the use of a radio planning tool considering topographic maps and a precise propagation model. From the attained results, it can be concluded that it is necessary to evaluate the propagation conditions of the deployment scenario prior to the system implantation in order to reach a compromise between the robustness of the network and the transmission data-rate.

  3. Scenarios of physics beyond the standard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fok, Ricky

    This dissertation discusses three topics on scenarios beyond the Standard Model. Topic one is the effects from a fourth generation of quarks and leptons on electroweak baryogenesis in the early universe. The Standard Model is incapable of electroweak baryogenesis due to an insufficiently strong enough electroweak phase transition (EWPT) as well as insufficient CP violation. We show that the presence of heavy fourth generation fermions solves the first problem but requires additional bosons to be included to stabilize the electroweak vacuum. Introducing supersymmetric partners of the heavy fermions, we find that the EWPT can be made strong enough and new sources of CP violation are present. Topic two relates to the lepton avor problem in supersymmetry. In the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), the off-diagonal elements in the slepton mass matrix must be suppressed at the 10-3 level to avoid experimental bounds from lepton avor changing processes. This dissertation shows that an enlarged R-parity can alleviate the lepton avor problem. An analysis of all sensitive parameters was performed in the mass range below 1 TeV, and we find that slepton maximal mixing is possible without violating bounds from the lepton avor changing processes: mu → egamma; mu → e conversion, and mu → 3e. Topic three is the collider phenomenology of quirky dark matter. In this model, quirks are particles that are gauged under the electroweak group, as well as a dark" color SU(2) group. The hadronization scale of this color group is well below the quirk masses. As a result, the dark color strings never break. Quirk and anti-quirk pairs can be produced at the LHC. Once produced, they immediately form a bound state of high angular momentum. The quirk pair rapidly shed angular momentum by emitting soft radiation before they annihilate into observable signals. This dissertation presents the decay branching ratios of quirkonia where quirks obtain their masses through electroweak

  4. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-04-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon - a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  5. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  6. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  7. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes. PMID:27733963

  8. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

    PubMed

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-08-31

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  9. CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

  10. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-01

    Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software ...Homeland Security under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally...DISTRIBUTES IT “AS IS.” References herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trade mark, manufacturer, or otherwise

  11. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  12. Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.

    PubMed

    Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

    2013-01-01

    When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.

  13. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

    2014-12-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  14. Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xue; Ye, Si-Yuan; Wei, Ai-Hua; Zhou, Peng-Peng; Wang, Li-Heng

    2017-09-01

    A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011-2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961-2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

  15. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  16. Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

  17. The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

    PubMed Central

    Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

    1993-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

  18. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  19. Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

    Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

  20. Attractor scenarios and superluminal signals in k-essence cosmology

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Jin U; Arnold Sommerfeld Center, Department of Physics, Ludwig-Maximilians University, Theresienstrasse 37, 80333 Munich; Vanchurin, Vitaly

    Cosmological scenarios with k-essence are invoked in order to explain the observed late-time acceleration of the Universe. These scenarios avoid the need for fine-tuned initial conditions (the 'coincidence problem') because of the attractorlike dynamics of the k-essence field {phi}. It was recently shown that all k-essence scenarios with Lagrangians p=L(X){phi}{sup -2}, where X{identical_to}(1/2){phi}{sub ,{mu}}{phi}{sup ,{mu}}, necessarily involve an epoch where perturbations of {phi} propagate faster than light (the 'no-go theorem'). We carry out a comprehensive study of attractorlike cosmological solutions ('trackers') involving a k-essence scalar field {phi} and another matter component. The result of this study is a complete classificationmore » of k-essence Lagrangians that admit asymptotically stable tracking solutions, among all Lagrangians of the form p=K({phi})L(X). Using this classification, we select the class of models that describe the late-time acceleration and avoid the coincidence problem through the tracking mechanism. An analogous 'no-go theorem' still holds for this class of models, indicating the existence of a superluminal epoch. In the context of k-essence cosmology, the superluminal epoch does not lead to causality violations. We discuss the implications of superluminal signal propagation for possible causality violations in Lorentz-invariant field theories.« less

  1. Biomethane production system: Energetic analysis of various scenarios.

    PubMed

    Wu, Bin; Zhang, Xiangping; Bao, Di; Xu, Yajing; Zhang, Suojiang; Deng, Liyuan

    2016-04-01

    The energy consumption models of biomethane production system were established, which are more rigorous and universal than the empirical data reported by previous biomethane system energetic assessment work. The energy efficiencies of different scenarios considering factors such as two digestion modes, two heating modes of digester, with or without heat exchange between slurry and feedstock, and four crude biogas upgrading technologies were evaluated. Results showed the scenario employing thermophilic digestion and high pressure water scrubbing technology, with heat exchange between feedstock and slurry, and heat demand of digester supplied by the energy source outside the system has the highest energy efficiency (46.5%) and lowest energy consumption (13.46 MJth/Nm(3) CH4), while scenario employing mesophilic digestion and pressure swing adsorption technology, without heat exchange and heat demand of digester supplied by combusting the biogas produced inside the system has the lowest energy efficiency (15.8%) and highest energy consumption (34.90 MJth/Nm(3) CH4). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Scenarios for low carbon and low water electric power plant ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In the water-energy nexus, water use for the electric power sector is critical. Currently, the operational phase of electric power production dominates the electric sector's life cycle withdrawal and consumption of fresh water resources. Water use associated with the fuel cycle and power plant equipment manufacturing phase is substantially lower on a life cycle basis. An outstanding question is: how do regional shifts to lower carbon electric power mixes affect the relative contribution of the upstream life cycle water use? To test this, we examine a range of scenarios comparing a baseline with scenarios of carbon reduction and water use constraints using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy systems model with ORD's 2014 U.S. 9-region database (EPAUS9r). The results suggest that moving toward a low carbon and low water electric power mix may increase the non-operational water use. In particular, power plant manufacturing water use for concentrating solar power, and fuel cycle water use for biomass feedstock, could see sharp increases under scenarios of high deployment of these low carbon options. Our analysis addresses the following questions. First, how does moving to a lower carbon electricity generation mix affect the overall regional electric power water use from a life cycle perspective? Second, how does constraining the operational water use for power plants affect the mix, if at all? Third, how does the life cycle water use differ among regions under

  3. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    PubMed

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-07-24

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

  4. Stars with relativistic speeds in the Hills scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dremova, G. N.; Dremov, V. V.; Tutukov, A. V.

    2017-07-01

    The dynamical capture of a binary system consisting of a supermassive black hole (SMBH) and an ordinary star in the gravitational field of a central (more massive) SMBH is considered in the three-body problem in the framework of a modified Hills scenario. The results of numerical simulations predict the existence of objects whose spatial speeds are comparable to the speed of light. The conditions for and constraints imposed on the ejection speeds realized in a classical scenario and the modified Hills scenario are analyzed. The star is modeled using an N-body approach, making it possible to treat it as a structured object, enabling estimation of the probability that the object survives when it is ejected with relativistic speed as a function of the mass of the star, the masses of both SMBHs, and the pericenter distance. It is possible that the modern kinematic classification for stars with anomalously high spatial velocities will be augmented with a new class—stars with relativistic speeds.

  5. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    PubMed

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  6. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    PubMed

    Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  7. Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

    2013-04-01

    While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W

  8. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  9. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  10. Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

    2016-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

  11. Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

    PubMed

    Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

    2016-12-01

    A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

  12. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  13. Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Speer, Bethany; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

    Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16more » GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.« less

  14. Development of test scenarios for off-roadway crash countermeasures based on crash statistics

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2002-09-01

    This report presents the results from an analysis of off-roadway crashes and proposes a set of crash-imminent scenarios to objectively test countermeasure systems for light vehicles (passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and pickup trucks) ba...

  15. Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some

  16. Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

    2011-12-01

    The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

  17. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  18. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  19. R modes and neutron star recycling scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chugunov, A. I.; Gusakov, M. E.; Kantor, E. M.

    2017-06-01

    To put new constraints on the r-mode instability window, we analyse the formation of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) within the recycling scenario, making use of three sets of observations: (a) X-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) in low-mass X-ray binaries; (b) timing of MSPs and (c) X-ray and UV observations of MSPs. As shown in previous works, r-mode dissipation by shear viscosity is not sufficient to explain observational set (a), and enhanced r-mode dissipation at the redshifted internal temperatures T ∞ ˜ 108 K is required to stabilize the observed NSs. Here, we argue that models with enhanced bulk viscosity can hardly lead to a self-consistent explanation of observational set (a) due to strong neutrino emission, which is typical for these models (unrealistically powerful energy source is required to keep NSs at the observed temperatures.). We also demonstrate that the observational set (b), combined with the theory of internal heating and NS cooling, provides evidence of enhanced r-mode dissipation at low temperatures, T ∞ ˜ 2 × 107 K. Observational set (c) allows us to set an upper limit on the internal temperatures of MSPs, T ∞ < 2 × 107 K (assuming a canonical NS with the accreted crust). Recycling scenario can produce MSPs at these temperatures only if r-mode instability is suppressed in the whole MSP spin frequency range (ν ≲ 750 Hz) at temperatures 2 × 107 ≲ T ∞ ≲ 3 × 107 K, providing thus a new constraint on the r-mode instability window. These observational constraints are analysed in more details in application to the resonance uplift scenario of Gusakov et al.

  20. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  1. Impact of the biorefinery size on the logistics of corn stover supply – A scenario analysis

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Yu; Ebadian, Mahmood; Sokhansanj, Shahab; ...

    2017-03-23

    In this study, three scenarios are considered to quantify the impact of the biorefinery size on the required biomass logistical resources. The biorefinery scenarios include small scale (175 dt/day)-SS, medium scale (520 dt/day)-MS and large scale (860 dt/day)-LS. These scenarios are compared against the following logistical resources (1) harvest area and contracted fields, (2) logistics equipment fleet and the workforce to run this fleet and (3) intermediate storage sites and their biomass inventory levels. To this end, the IBSAL-MC simulation model is applied to a corn stover logistics system in Southwestern Ontario. The obtained results show (1) the harvest areamore » and the number of contracted fields increase by 65% and 78% from the SS scenario to the MS and LS scenarios, respectively, (2) the average biomass delivered costs are estimated to be $82.09, $87.49 and $93.75/dry tonne in the SS, MS and LS scenarios. The increase in the capital costs to develop a dedicated logistics equipment fleet are estimated to be far greater than the increase in the delivered costs as the size of the biorefinery increases. The upfront capital costs are estimated to be 6.72 dollars, 21.83 and 35.51 million in these scenarios. To run the logistics equipment fleet efficiently, 37, 136 and 235 well-trained operators are required in the SS, MS ad LS scenarios, respectively, and (3) the inventory level and the land requirement for storage in the MS and LS scenarios are estimated to be 225% and 425% greater than those of the SS scenario. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the logistical resources are highly sensitive to corn yield and farm participation rate. Overall, this study shows the importance of considering the size of the required logistical resources and the associated level of logistical complexity in evaluating the economic viability of a biorefinery project.« less

  2. Impact of the biorefinery size on the logistics of corn stover supply – A scenario analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yu; Ebadian, Mahmood; Sokhansanj, Shahab

    In this study, three scenarios are considered to quantify the impact of the biorefinery size on the required biomass logistical resources. The biorefinery scenarios include small scale (175 dt/day)-SS, medium scale (520 dt/day)-MS and large scale (860 dt/day)-LS. These scenarios are compared against the following logistical resources (1) harvest area and contracted fields, (2) logistics equipment fleet and the workforce to run this fleet and (3) intermediate storage sites and their biomass inventory levels. To this end, the IBSAL-MC simulation model is applied to a corn stover logistics system in Southwestern Ontario. The obtained results show (1) the harvest areamore » and the number of contracted fields increase by 65% and 78% from the SS scenario to the MS and LS scenarios, respectively, (2) the average biomass delivered costs are estimated to be $82.09, $87.49 and $93.75/dry tonne in the SS, MS and LS scenarios. The increase in the capital costs to develop a dedicated logistics equipment fleet are estimated to be far greater than the increase in the delivered costs as the size of the biorefinery increases. The upfront capital costs are estimated to be 6.72 dollars, 21.83 and 35.51 million in these scenarios. To run the logistics equipment fleet efficiently, 37, 136 and 235 well-trained operators are required in the SS, MS ad LS scenarios, respectively, and (3) the inventory level and the land requirement for storage in the MS and LS scenarios are estimated to be 225% and 425% greater than those of the SS scenario. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the logistical resources are highly sensitive to corn yield and farm participation rate. Overall, this study shows the importance of considering the size of the required logistical resources and the associated level of logistical complexity in evaluating the economic viability of a biorefinery project.« less

  3. Elimination of Hepatitis Viruses: Bangladesh Scenario.

    PubMed

    Al Mahtab, Mamun

    2017-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) has adopted targets unanimously at the World Health Assembly in July 2016, in Geneva, to significantly curtail hepatitis B and C viruses to near extinction by 2030. Preparations are now ongoing in all WHO member nations across the globe to reach this ambitious, but perhaps achievable target. In Bangladesh, hepatologists, nongovernmental organizations, civil society, and patients have joined hands with the government in this global fight against viral hepatitis. How to cite this article: Mahtab MA. Elimination of Hepatitis Viruses: Bangladesh Scenario. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2017;7(1):40-42.

  4. Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

    1994-01-01

    Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

  5. Simulating Scenario Floods for Hazard Assessment on the Lower Bicol Floodplain, the Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Usamah, Muhibuddin Bin; Alkema, Dinand

    This paper describes the first results from a study to the behavior of floods in the lower Bicol area, the Philippines. A 1D2D dynamic hydraulic model was applied to simulate a set of scenario floods through the complex topography of the city Naga and surrounding area. The simulation results are integrated into a multi-parameter hazard zonation for the five scenario floods.

  6. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  7. Futures of elderly care in Iran: A protocol with scenario approach.

    PubMed

    Goharinezhad, Salime; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Ravaghi, Hamid

    2016-01-01

    Background: The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. Methods: In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Results: Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. Conclusion: This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.

  8. Formation of Compact Ellipticals in the merging star cluster scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urrutia Zapata, Fernanda Cecilia; Theory and star formation group

    2018-01-01

    In the last years, extended old stellar clusters have been observed. They are like globular clusters (GCs) but with larger sizes(a limit of Re=10 pc is currently seen as reasonable). These extended objects (EOs) cover a huge range of mass. Objects at the low mass end with masses comparable to normal globular clusters are called extended clusters or faint fuzzies Larsen & Brodie (2000) and objects at the high-mass end are called ultra compact dwarf galaxies (UCDs). Ultra compact dwarf galaxies are compact object with luminositys above the brigtest known GCs. UCDs are more compact than typical dwarf galaxies but with comparable luminosities. Usually, a lower mass limit of 2 × 10^6 Solar masses is applied.Fellhauer & Kroupa (2002a,b) demostrated that object like ECs, FFs and UCDs can be the remnants of the merger of star clusters complexes, this scenario is called the Merging Star Cluster Scenario. Amore concise study was performed by Bruens et al. (2009, 2011).Our work tries to explain the formation of compact elliptical(cE). These objects are a comparatively rare class of spheroidal galaxies, possessing very small Re and high central surface brightnesses (Faber 1973). cEs have the same parameters as extended objects but they are slightly larger than 100 pc and the luminosities are in the range of -11 to -12 Mag.The standard formation sceanrio of these systems proposes a galaxy origin. CEs are the result of tidal stripping and truncation of nucleated larger systems. Or they could be a natural extension of the class of elliptical galaxies to lower luminosities and smaller sizes.We want to propose a completely new formation scenario for cEs. In our project we try to model cEs in a similar way that UCDs using the merging star cluster scenario extended to much higher masses and sizes. We think that in the early Universe we might have produced sufficiently strong star bursts to form cluster complexes which merge into cEs. So far it is observationally unknown if cEs are

  9. Prevalence and Antifungal Susceptibility of 442 Candida Isolates from Blood and Other Normally Sterile Sites: Results of a 2-Year (1996 to 1998) Multicenter Surveillance Study in Quebec, Canada

    PubMed Central

    St-Germain, G.; Laverdière, M.; Pelletier, R.; Bourgault, A.-M.; Libman, M.; Lemieux, C.; Noël, G.

    2001-01-01

    During a 2-year surveillance program (1996 to 1998) in Quebec, Canada, 442 strains of Candida species were isolated from 415 patients in 51 hospitals. The distribution of species was as follows: Candida albicans, 54%; C. glabrata, 15%; C. parapsilosis, 12%; C. tropicalis, 9%; C. lusitaniae, 3%; C. krusei, 3%; and Candida spp., 3%. These data, compared to those of a 1985 survey, indicate variations in species distribution, with the proportions of C. glabrata and C. parapsilosis increasing by 9 and 4%, respectively, and those of C. albicans and C. tropicalis decreasing by 10 and 7%, respectively. However, these differences are statistically significant for C. glabrata and C. tropicalis only. MICs of amphotericin B were ≥4 μg/ml for 3% of isolates, all of which were non-C. albicans species. Three percent of C. albicans isolates were resistant to flucytosine (≥32 μg/ml). Resistance to itraconazole (≥1 μg/ml) and fluconazole (≥64 μg/ml) was observed, respectively, in 1 and 1% of C. albicans, 14 and 9% of C. glabrata, 5 and 0% of C. tropicalis, and 0% of C. parapsilosis and C. lusitaniae isolates. Clinical data were obtained for 343 patients. The overall crude mortality rate was 38%, reflecting the multiple serious underlying illnesses found in these patients. Bloodstream infections were documented for 249 patients (73%). Overall, systemic triazoles had been administered to 10% of patients before the onset of candidiasis. The frequency of isolation of non-C. albicans species was significantly higher in this group of patients. Overall, only two C. albicans isolates were found to be resistant to fluconazole. These were obtained from an AIDS patient and a leukemia patient, both of whom had a history of previous exposure to fluconazole. At present, it appears that resistance to fluconazole in Quebec is rare and is restricted to patients with prior prolonged azole treatment. PMID:11230409

  10. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  11. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    PubMed

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; ...

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenariosmore » with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale M H± to the scale M S. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  13. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenariosmore » with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale M H± to the scale M S. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  14. Pilot study assessing differentiation of steatosis hepatis, hepatic iron overload, and combined disease using two-point dixon MRI at 3 T: in vitro and in vivo results of a 2D decomposition technique.

    PubMed

    Boll, Daniel T; Marin, Daniele; Redmon, Grace M; Zink, Stephen I; Merkle, Elmar M

    2010-04-01

    The purpose of our study was to evaluate whether two-point Dixon MRI using a 2D decomposition technique facilitates metabolite differentiation between lipids and iron in standardized in vitro liver phantoms with in vivo patient validation and allows semiquantitative in vitro assessment of metabolites associated with steatosis, iron overload, and combined disease. The acrylamide-based phantoms were made to reproduce the T1- and T2-weighted MRI appearances of physiologic hepatic parenchyma and hepatic steatosis-iron overload by the admixture of triglycerides and ferumoxides. Combined disease was simulated using joint admixtures of triglycerides and ferumoxides at various concentrations. For phantom validation, 30 patients were included, of whom 10 had steatosis, 10 had iron overload, and 10 had no liver disease. For MRI an in-phase/opposed-phase T1-weighted sequence with TR/TE(opposed-phase)/TE(in-phase) of 4.19/1.25/2.46 was used. Fat/water series were obtained by Dixon-based algorithms. In-phase and opposed-phase and fat/water ratios were calculated. Statistical cluster analysis assessed ratio pairs of physiologic liver, steatosis, iron overload, and combined disease in 2D metabolite discrimination plots. Statistical assessment proved that metabolite decomposition in phantoms simulating steatosis (1.77|0.22; in-phase/opposed-phase|fat/water ratios), iron overload (0.75|0.21), and healthy control subjects (1.09|0.05) formed three clusters with distinct ratio pairs. Patient validation for hepatic steatosis (3.29|0.51), iron overload (0.56|0.41), and normal control subjects (0.99|0.05) confirmed this clustering (p < 0.001). One-dimensional analysis assessing in vitro combined disease only with in-phase/opposed-phase ratios would have failed to characterize metabolites. The 2D analysis plotting in-phase/opposed-phase and fat/water ratios (2.16|0.59) provided accurate semiquantitative metabolite decomposition (p < 0.001). MR Dixon imaging facilitates metabolite

  15. Changes in HbA1c levels and body mass index after successful decompression surgery in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and lumbar spinal stenosis: results of a 2-year follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kyoung-Tae; Cho, Dae-Chul; Sung, Joo-Kyung; Kim, Chi Heon; Kang, Hyun; Kim, Du Hwan

    2017-02-01

    Lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) can hinder a patient's physical activity, which in turn can impair glucose tolerance and body weight regulation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM-2). Therefore, successful lumbar surgery could facilitate glycemic control and body weight regulation. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of postoperative improvement in physical activity on body mass index (BMI) and hemoglobin A 1c (HbA 1c ) level in patients with LSS and DM-2 over a 2-year follow-up period. Prospective longitudinal observational study. Patients with LSS and DM-2. Visual analogue scale (VAS) scores for back pain and leg pain, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) scores, Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) scores, JOA Back Pain Evaluation Questionnaire (JOABPEQ) sections, BMI, and blood analysis for HbA 1c were carried out. A total of 119 patients were enrolled for analysis of the effect of successful decompression surgery on changes in HbA 1c levels and BMI. The VAS score, ODI score, JOA score, JOABPEQ, BMI, HbA 1c were reassessed at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years after surgery. Additionally, correlations between changes in HbA 1c and changes in the ODI, JOA, JOABPEQs, and BMI were analyzed. The overall values of HbA1c before and at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years after the surgery were 7.08±0.94%, 6.58±0.87%, 6.59±0.79%, and 6.59±0.79%, respectively (p-values; 6 months: .024; 1 year: .021; 2 years: .038). In the not well-controlled sugar (non-WCS) group (preoperative HbA 1c >6.5%), the difference between pre- and postoperative HbA 1c was highly statistically significant (p<.01). The overweight group (preoperative BMI≥25) showed statistically significant BMI reduction in the second year after surgery (p=.034). The postoperative HbA 1c changes are strongly correlated with the improvements of ODI, JOA, and JOABPEQ after surgery. The present study demonstrates that in patients with DM-2 and LSS, successful lumbar surgery may facilitate glycemic control by

  16. Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

    2018-01-01

    According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

  17. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  18. Simulation of scenario earthquake influenced field by using GIS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zuo, H.-Q.; Xie, L.-L.; Borcherdt, R.D.

    1999-01-01

    The method for estimating the site effect on ground motion specified by Borcherdt (1994a, 1994b) is briefly introduced in the paper. This method and the detail geological data and site classification data in San Francisco bay area of California, the United States, are applied to simulate the influenced field of scenario earthquake by GIS technology, and the software for simulating has been drawn up. The paper is a partial result of cooperative research project between China Seismological Bureau and US Geological Survey.

  19. Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios.

    PubMed

    González Morales, N L; Núñez-López, M; Ramos-Castañeda, J; Velasco-Hernández, J X

    2017-05-01

    In this work we present a mathematical model that incorporates two Dengue serotypes. The model has been constructed to study both the epidemiological trends of the disease and conditions that allow coexistence in competing strains under vaccination. We consider two viral strains and temporary cross-immunity with one vector mosquito population. Results suggest that vaccination scenarios will not only reduce disease incidence but will also modify the transmission dynamics. Indeed, vaccination and cross immunity period are seen to decrease the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks but in a differentiated manner with specific effects depending upon the interaction vaccine and strain type. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Stability of distributed MPC in an intersection scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sprodowski, T.; Pannek, J.

    2015-11-01

    The research topic of autonomous cars and the communication among them has attained much attention in the last years and is developing quickly. Among others, this research area spans fields such as image recognition, mathematical control theory, communication networks, and sensor fusion. We consider an intersection scenario where we divide the shared road space in different cells. These cells form a grid. The cars are modelled as an autonomous multi-agent system based on the Distributed Model Predictive Control algorithm (DMPC). We prove that the overall system reaches stability using Optimal Control for each multi-agent and demonstrate that by numerical results.

  1. On the entropy variation in the scenario of entropic gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Yong; Bai, Shi-Yang

    2018-05-01

    In the scenario of entropic gravity, entropy varies as a function of the location of the matter, while the tendency to increase entropy appears as gravity. We concentrate on studying the entropy variation of a typical gravitational system with different relative positions between the mass and the gravitational source. The result is that the entropy of the system doesn't increase when the mass is displaced closer to the gravitational source. In this way it disproves the proposal of entropic gravity from thermodynamic entropy. It doesn't exclude the possibility that gravity originates from non-thermodynamic entropy like entanglement entropy.

  2. Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

  3. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  4. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

  5. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

    PubMed

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  6. Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

    PubMed

    Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

    2018-02-01

    The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Various problems in lunar habitat construction scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, Keiji; Ohtsubo, Koji; Oguchi, Mitsuo; Ohya, Haruhiko; Kanbe, Seiichiro; Ashida, Akira; Sano, Kenichi

    1991-10-01

    Many papers describing the lunar base construction have been published previously. Lunar base has been considered to be a useful facility to conduct future scientific programs and to get new nuclear energy resource, namely 3He, for defending the environmental collapse on Earth and also to develop lunar resources such as oxygen and nitrogen for extending human activities in space more economically. The scale of the lunar base and the construction methods adopted are determined by the scenario of a lunar utilization program but constrained by the availability of the established space transportation technologies. As indicated in the scenarios described in papers regarding lunar base construction, the first steps of lunar missions are the investigation of lunar itself for conducting scientific research and for surveying the lunar base construction sites, the second steps are the outpost construction for conducting man-tended missions, for more precise scientific research and studying the lunar base construction methods, and third steps are the construction of a permanent base and the expansion of this lunar base for exploiting lunar resources. The missions within the first and second steps are all possible using the ferry (OTV) similar to the service and command modules of Apollo Spacecraft because all necessary weights to be landed on the lunar surface for these missions seem to be under the equivalent weight of the Apollo Lunar Lander. On the other hand, the permanent facilities constructed on the lunar surface in the third step requires larger quantities of construction materials to be transported from Earth, and a new ferry (advanced OTV) having higher transportation ability, at least above 6 times, compared with Apollo Service and Command Modules, are to be developed. The largest problems in the permament lunar base construction are related to the food production facilities, 30-40 m 2 plant cultivation area per person are required for providing the nutrition

  8. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  9. Integrating Future Information through Scenarios. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zentner, Rene D.

    The way that higher education planners can take into account changes in the post-industrial society is discussed. The scenario method is proposed as a method of integrating futures information. The planner can be provided with several probable futures, each of which can be incorporated in a scenario. An effective scenario provides the planner…

  10. DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool |

    Science.gov Websites

    State, Local, and Tribal Governments | NREL Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool Wednesday, August 13, 2014 As part ) presented a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a fruitful solar garden

  11. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  12. New trends in transportation and land use scenario planning : five case studies of regional and local scenario planning efforts

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-04-01

    This report summarizes important findings from a literature review on scenario planning processes and a scan of stakeholders. It also presents case studies on innovative, next generation scenario planning efforts. The project team defined next ...

  13. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  14. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  15. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  16. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  17. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    PubMed

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  18. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  20. Comparison of Sigma-Point and Extended Kalman Filters on a Realistic Orbit Determination Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaebler, John; Hur-Diaz. Sun; Carpenter, Russell

    2010-01-01

    Sigma-point filters have received a lot of attention in recent years as a better alternative to extended Kalman filters for highly nonlinear problems. In this paper, we compare the performance of the additive divided difference sigma-point filter to the extended Kalman filter when applied to orbit determination of a realistic operational scenario based on the Interstellar Boundary Explorer mission. For the scenario studied, both filters provided equivalent results. The performance of each is discussed in detail.

  1. Environmental Influences on Mate Preferences as Assessed by a Scenario Manipulation Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Marzoli, Daniele; Moretto, Francesco; Monti, Aura; Tocci, Ornella; Roberts, S. Craig; Tommasi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness) under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being). An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men) was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions. PMID:24069291

  2. Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry D.; Rudisill, Marianne

    2010-01-01

    This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 (LS-12) surface habitation approach and concept performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of the 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenario attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location. This paper will describe an overview of the CxAT-Lunar Scenario 12.0 habitation concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suitlock function such as suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as enhanced life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other habitation elements, a common interface mechanism for future growth, and mating to a pressurized rover or Pressurized Logistics Module (PLM). The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, medical operations, and exercise equipment.

  3. Dementia-associated mortality and its predictors among older adults in sub-Saharan Africa: results from a 2-year follow-up in Congo (the EPIDEMCA-FU study).

    PubMed

    Samba, Harielle; Guerchet, Maelenn; Ndamba-Bandzouzi, Bebene; Mbelesso, Pascal; Lacroix, Philippe; Dartigues, Jean-Francois; Preux, Pierre-Marie

    2016-09-01

    between 2001 and 2012, we carried out a study of dementia prevalence in central Africa throughout the EPIDEMCA (Epidemiology of Dementia in Central Africa) programme. to assess dementia-related mortality among Congolese older people from the EPIDEMCA study after 2 years of follow-up. longitudinal population-based cohort study. Gamboma and Brazzaville, Republic of Congo. older participants were traced and interviewed in rural and urban Congo annually between 2012 and 2014. DSM-IV and NINCDS-ADRDA criteria were required for dementia diagnosis. Data on vital status were collected throughout the follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the link between baseline dementia diagnosis and mortality risk. of 1,029 participants at baseline, 910 (88.4%) have a complete cognitive diagnosis. There were 791 participants (76.87%) with normal cognition, 56 (5.44%) with MCI and 63 (6.12%) with dementia. After 2 years of follow-up, 101 (9.8%) participants had died. Compared with participants with normal cognition, patients with dementia had 2.5 times higher mortality risk (HR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.42-4.49, P = 0.001). Among those with dementia, only clinical severity of dementia was associated with an additional increased mortality risk (HR = 1.91; CI 95%, 1.23-2.96; P = 0.004). Age (per 5-year increase), male sex and living in an urban area were independently associated with increased mortality risk across the full cohort. among Congolese older adults, dementia is associated with increased mortality risk. Our results highlight the need for targeted health policies and strategies for dementia care in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  5. Is employment-focused case management effective for patients with substance use disorders? Results from a controlled multi-site trial in Germany covering a 2-years-period after inpatient rehabilitation.

    PubMed

    Saal, Susanne; Forschner, Lukas; Kemmann, Dietmar; Zlatosch, Jacqueline; Kallert, Thomas W

    2016-08-05

    Substance use disorders are associated with unemployment. An employment-focused case management (CMRE) has been conceptualised as a specific intervention to help substance use disorder patients return to competitive employment immediately after inpatient rehabilitation. This study investigated the effect of the intervention on return to work of persons with substance use disorders. The study was conducted in four German inpatient rehabilitation departments, and included unemployed patients (aged between 18 and 63 years) with a main clinical diagnosis of ICD-10 F10-19 disorders. Six weeks before discharge, patients were randomly allocated to CMRE or standard care (SC) using a quasi-randomised approach. The primary outcome measure was integration into competitive employment 24 months after discharge from rehabilitation. Secondary outcome domains were abstinence, duration of employment, proportion of publicly funded employment, satisfaction with life, precarious housing situation and precarious financial situation, and use of follow-up services. Outcome measures were assessed 6 weeks and 1-2 days prior to discharge, and 12 and 24 months after discharge from rehabilitation. One hundred sixty patients were allocated into the CMRE group and 160 patients into the control group. 267 resp. 179 participants could be included in the analyses performed for the 12-, and the 24-months follow-up assessments. At the study endpoint the rate of integration into the primary labour market was 35.6 % in the CMRE group and 41.2 % in the control group, respectively (Relative Risk 0.92, 95 % CI, 0.47; 1.79). There was a significantly higher proportion in the CMRE group, however, which immediately after discharge linked with services of the Federal Employment Agency or Job Centres. There were no statistically significant differences in other outcomes between the groups. Compared to SC, the additional specific CMRE intervention did not result in superior effects on return to work

  6. Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

    Treesearch

    Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

    2017-01-01

    Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

  7. [Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].

    PubMed

    Stavem, K

    2000-01-10

    Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.

  8. Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

    2017-06-01

    The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

  9. Effects of working memory load and repeated scenario exposure on emergency braking performance.

    PubMed

    Engström, Johan; Aust, Mikael Ljung; Viström, Matias

    2010-10-01

    The objective of the present study was to examine the effect of working memory load on drivers' responses to a suddenly braking lead vehicle and whether this effect (if any) is moderated by repeated scenario exposure. Several experimental studies have found delayed braking responses to lead vehicle braking events during concurrent performance of nonvisual, working memory-loading tasks, such as hands-free phone conversation. However, the common use of repeated, and hence somewhat expected, braking events may undermine the generalizability of these results to naturalistic, unexpected, emergency braking scenarios. A critical lead vehicle braking scenario was implemented in a fixed-based simulator.The effects of working memory load and repeated scenario exposure on braking performance were examined. Brake response time was decomposed into accelerator pedal release time and accelerator-to-brake pedal movement time. Accelerator pedal release times were strongly reduced with repeated scenario exposure and were delayed by working memory load with a small but significant amount (178 ms).The two factors did not interact. There were no effects on accelerator-to-brake pedal movement time. The results suggest that effects of working memory load on response performance obtained from repeated critical lead vehicle braking scenarios may be validly generalized to real world unexpected events. The results have important implications for the interpretation of braking performance in experimental settings, in particular in the context of safety-related evaluation of in-vehicle information and communication technologies.

  10. Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

    2009-01-01

    Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American

  11. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  12. Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yang

    2017-08-01

    User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

  13. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

    2016-04-01

    six alluvial sites. This comparison drastically reduces the number of realistic land cover scenarios for various cultural periods. REVEALS based land cover histories provide more accurate estimates of Holocene sediment fluxes compared to global land cover scenarios (KK10 and HYDE 3.1). Both global land cover scenarios produce erroneous results when applied at their original coarse scale resolution. However, spatially allocating KK10 land cover data to a finer spatial resolution increases its performance, whereas this is not the case for HYDE 3.1. Results suggest that KK10 also offers a more realistic history of human impact than HYDE 3.1 although it overestimates human impact in the Belgian Loess Belt prior to the Roman Age, whereas it underestimates human impact from the Medieval Period onwards.

  15. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  16. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  17. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  18. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  19. Discrepant Results in a 2-D Marble Collision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kalajian, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Video analysis of 2-D collisions is an excellent way to investigate conservation of linear momentum. The often-desired experimental design goal is to minimize the momentum loss in order to demonstrate the conservation law. An air table with colliding pucks is an ideal medium for this experiment, but such equipment is beyond the budget of many…

  20. Disruption avoidance and fast ramp-down techniques for the DIII-D experimental scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barr, Jayson; Eidietis, N. W.; Humphreys, D. A.; Sammuli, B.; Luce, T.

    2017-10-01

    Plasma current ramp-down in ITER will continue in H-mode from 15 MA to 10 MA, and will keep a diverted shape until termination. This is in contrast to the limited ramp-down scenarios typically used in DIII-D operations. Additionally, fast emergency ramp-down scenarios for ITER and future reactors are a priority for disruption avoidance. New experiments in DIII-D use the ramp-down phase of a variety of experiments including in the ITER baseline scenario to survey and identify optimized ramp-down scenarios for both scheduled terminations and terminations triggered by off-normal event detection. Systematic scans in current ramp-rate (1-5 MA/s), neutral beam power (including βN feedback) and ramp-down shaping (limited versus continued diverted) have identified fast ramp-down scenarios for Lower Single Null (LSN) and Double Null (DN) plasmas. Scenario-specific methods and their rates of successful termination will be presented and compared relative to a historical data-set of ramp-down programming in the limiter configuration. Locked modes are found to be the most significant challenge to disruption avoidance in diverted ramp-downs. Results for LSN diverted discharges that begin the rampdown with large locked-modes will also be presented. If available, results of similar experiments on EAST will be presented. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698 and DE-SC0010685.

  1. Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2014-09-15

    Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p < 0.05). However, pessimistic land use scenario led to significant increases on an annual basis (turbidity: +11.6%, FC: +15.2%; p < 0.05). Additional simulations conducted for the late 21st century (2090) revealed that climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

    Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

  3. Physical Simulation for Low-Energy Astrobiology Environmental Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gormly, Sherwin; Adams, V. D.; Marchand, Eric

    2003-12-01

    Speculations about the extent of life of independent origin and the potential for sustaining Earth-based life in subsurface environments on both Europa and Mars are of current and relevant interest. Theoretical modeling based on chemical energetics has demonstrated potential options for viable biochemical metabolism (metabolic pathways) in these types of environments. Also, similar environments on Earth show microbial activity. However, actual physical simulation testing of specific environments is required to confidently determine the interplay of various physical and chemical parameters on the viability of relevant metabolic pathways. This testing is required to determine the potential to sustain life in these environments on a specific scenario by scenario basis. This study examines the justification, design, and fabrication of, as well as the culture selection and screening for, a psychrophilic/halophilic/anaerobic digester. This digester is specifically designed to conform to physical testing needs of research relating to potential extent physical environments on Europa and other planetary bodies in the Solar System. The study is a long-term effort and is currently in an early phase, with only screening-level data at this time. Full study results will likely take an additional 2 years. However, researchers in electromagnetic biosignature and in situ instrument development should be aware of the study at this time, as they are invited to participate in planning for future applications of the digester facility.

  4. Modelling controlled VDE's and ramp-down scenarios in ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lodestro, L. L.; Kolesnikov, R. A.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Humphreys, D. A.; Walker, M. L.

    2011-10-01

    Following the design reviews of recent years, the ITER poloidal-field coil-set design, including in-vessel coils (VS3), and the divertor configuration have settled down. The divertor and its material composition (the latter has not been finalized) affect the development of fiducial equilibria and scenarios together with the coils through constraints on strike-point locations and limits on the PF and control systems. Previously we have reported on our studies simulating controlled vertical events in ITER with the JCT 2001 controller to which we added a PID VS3 circuit. In this paper we report and compare controlled VDE results using an optimized integrated VS and shape controller in the updated configuration. We also present our recent simulations of alternate ramp-down scenarios, looking at the effects of ramp-down time and shape strategies, using these controllers. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  5. Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios.

    PubMed

    Marko, Oskar; Brdar, Sanja; Panić, Marko; Šašić, Isidora; Despotović, Danica; Knežević, Milivoje; Crnojević, Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017.

  6. Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

  7. Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Brdar, Sanja; Panić, Marko; Šašić, Isidora; Despotović, Danica; Knežević, Milivoje; Crnojević, Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017. PMID:28863173

  8. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  9. Microalgae biorefineries: The Brazilian scenario in perspective.

    PubMed

    Brasil, B S A F; Silva, F C P; Siqueira, F G

    2017-10-25

    Biorefineries have the potential to meet a significant part of the growing demand for energy, fuels, chemicals and materials worldwide. Indeed, the bio-based industry is expected to play a major role in energy security and climate change mitigation during the 21th century. Despite this, there are challenges related to resource consumption, processing optimization and waste minimization that still need to be overcome. In this context, microalgae appear as a promising non-edible feedstock with advantages over traditional land crops, such as high productivity, continuous harvesting throughout the year and minimal problems regarding land use. Importantly, both cultivation and microalgae processing can take place at the same site, which increases the possibilities for process integration and a reduction in logistic costs at biorefinery facilities. This review describes the actual scenario for microalgae biorefineries integration to the biofuels and petrochemical industries in Brazil, while highlighting the major challenges and recent advances in microalgae large-scale production. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Nonlocal correlations in a macroscopic measurement scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkri, Samir; Banik, Manik; Ghosh, Sibasish

    2017-02-01

    Nonlocality is one of the main characteristic features of quantum systems involving more than one spatially separated subsystem. It is manifested theoretically as well as experimentally through violation of some local realistic inequality. On the other hand, classical behavior of all physical phenomena in the macroscopic limit gives a general intuition that any physical theory for describing microscopic phenomena should resemble classical physics in the macroscopic regime, the so-called macrorealism. In the 2-2-2 scenario (two parties, with each performing two measurements and each measurement having two outcomes), contemplating all the no-signaling correlations, we characterize which of them would exhibit classical (local realistic) behavior in the macroscopic limit. Interestingly, we find correlations which at the single-copy level violate the Bell-Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality by an amount less than the optimal quantum violation (i.e., Cirel'son bound 2 √{2 } ), but in the macroscopic limit gives rise to a value which is higher than 2 √{2 } . Such correlations are therefore not considered physical. Our study thus provides a sufficient criterion to identify some of unphysical correlations.

  11. Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

    Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

  12. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parson, E. A.

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  13. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050.

    PubMed

    Song, Yongze; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jinfeng; Ren, Zhoupeng; Liao, Yilan; Peng, Junhuan

    2016-07-07

    Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Average malaria incidence was 0.107 ‰ per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R(2) = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R(2) = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity

  14. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  15. Performance of experienced versus less experienced paramedics in managing challenging scenarios: a cognitive task analysis study.

    PubMed

    Smith, Michael W; Bentley, Melissa A; Fernandez, Antonio R; Gibson, Gregory; Schweikhart, Sharon B; Woods, David D

    2013-10-01

    Out-of-hospital care is becoming more complex, thus placing greater reliance on the cognitive abilities of paramedics to manage difficult situations. In adapting to the challenges in their work, paramedics develop expertise. We study the cognitive strategies used by expert paramedics to contribute to understanding how paramedics and the EMS system can adapt to new challenges. We conducted a "staged-world" cognitive task analysis to explore paramedics' handling of cognitive challenges related to sense-making and to resource and task management. A mixed-fidelity simulation was used to present paramedics with 2 challenging scenarios: a pulmonary embolism initially presenting as a myocardial infarction and a 2-person shooting with limited resources available. Participants were 10 paramedics, 6 more experienced and 4 less experienced. Analysis involved comparing the performance of the 2 groups to identify strategies associated with expertise. The more experienced paramedics made more assessments, explored a wider variety of presumptive diagnoses, and identified the pulmonary embolism earlier. They switched attention between the 2 shooting victims more, used their emergency medical technician-basic level partners more, and provided more advanced level care for both patients. Their patients arrived at the emergency department more prepared for specialized emergency care. Our findings correspond to general cognitive attributes of expertise: greater cue gathering and inferential reasoning, and more functional and strategic thinking. These results suggest potential areas and methods to facilitate development of expertise, as well as ways to better support use of expertise. Future studies should expand on these findings through larger sample sizes and more complex scenarios. Copyright © 2013 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

  17. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

    PubMed

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  18. Failure Scenarios and Mitigations for the BABAR Superconducting Solenoid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, EunJoo; Candia, A.; Craddock, W. W.; Racine, M.; Weisend, J. G.

    2006-04-01

    The cryogenic department at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center is responsible for the operation, troubleshooting, and upgrade of the 1.5 Tesla superconducting solenoid detector for the BABAR B-factory experiment. Events that disable the detector are rare but significantly impact the availability of the detector for physics research. As a result, a number of systems and procedures have been developed over time to minimize the downtime of the detector, for example improved control systems, improved and automatic backup systems, and spares for all major components. Together they can prevent or mitigate many of the failures experienced by the utilities, mechanical systems, controls and instrumentation. In this paper we describe various failure scenarios, their effect on the detector, and the modifications made to mitigate the effects of the failure. As a result of these modifications the reliability of the detector has increased significantly with only 3 shutdowns of the detector due to cryogenics systems over the last 2 years.

  19. Lee wave breaking region: the map of instability development scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yakovenko, S. N.

    2017-10-01

    Numerical study of a stably stratified flow above the two-dimensional cosine-shaped obstacle has been performed by DNS and LES. These methods were implemented to solve the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in the Boussinesq approximation, together with by the scalar diffusion equation. The results of scanning in the wide ranges of physical parameters (Reynolds and Prandtl/Schmidt numbers relating to laboratory experiment cases and atmospheric or oceanic situations) are presented for instability and turbulence development scenarios in the overturning internal lee waves. The latter is generated by the obstacle in a flow with the constant inflow values of velocity and stable density gradient. Evolution of lee-wave breaking is explored by visualization of velocity and scalar (density) fields, and the analysis of spectra. Based on the numerical simulation results, the power-law dependence on Reynolds number is demonstrated for the wavelength of the most unstable perturbation.

  20. The future scenario for international labour migration.

    PubMed

    Tassello, G

    1989-01-01

    The study of migration helps us to grasp the social evolution and the political and economic strategies required to meet the new economic trends. The issue of permanent or temporary migration, long debated in the 1960s, now tends to disappear. Migrants are compared more to commuters on the international labor markets. Besides the economic out-migration flows, there are also the refugee migrations or the ever present phenomenon of persons uprooted from their home country as a result of natural disasters and famine. The worldwide economic crisis in the 1970s, the recession affecting some industrialized countries which used to be traditional labor-importing countries have barred many potential immigrant workers from entering these countries. If, on 1 hand, the persistent high rate of unemployment due to the transformation of industry and the computerization process has caused the dismissal of numerous unskilled--mainly immigrants--on the other hand, it has created the exigency of highly qualified personnel. The children of the indigenous population are therefore favored because of their better scholastic training. A 2nd generation is now condemned to remain marginal even though they have been brought up to the ideals of social improvement and integration into higher standards of living. A highly dissatisfied category of young people is now an integral part of many labor-importing countries. Many industrial countries are flirting with zero population growth. Considering the demographic, economic, social, and political imbalances which exist and tend to grow, the world now has all the prerequisites for huge and prolonged migration flows originating from the South and moving almost exclusively toward the megacities and the industrial countries in the North. As long as technological as well as social inequalities persist, inner and international migration flows will continue. It is evident that the aim of many highly industrialized countries is the total ceasing of all

  1. Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.

    2006-09-26

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period,more » April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.« less

  2. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

    PubMed

    Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

    2015-11-01

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

  3. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

    2016-05-01

    This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

  4. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From thesemore » five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

  5. Looking to the future: Framing the implementation of interprofessional education and practice with scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Forman, Dawn; Nicol, Pam; Nicol, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Adapting to interprofessional education and practice requires a change of perspective for many health professionals. We aimed to explore the potential of scenario planning to bridge the understanding gap and framing strategic planning for interprofessional education (IPE) and practice (IPP), as well as to implement innovative techniques and technology for large-group scenario planning. A full-day scenario planning workshop incorporating innovative methodology was designed and offered to participants. The 71 participants included academics from nine universities, as well as service providers, government, students and consumer organisations. The outcomes were evaluated by statistical and thematic analysis of a mixed method survey questionnaire. The scenario planning method resulted in a positive response as a means of collaboratively exploring current knowledge and broadening entrenched attitudes. It was perceived to be an effective instrument for framing strategy for the implementation of IPE/IPP, with 81 percent of respondents to a post-workshop survey indicating they would consider using scenario planning in their own organisations. The scenario planning method can be used by tertiary academic institutions as a strategy in developing, implementing and embedding IPE, and for the enculturation of IPP in practice settings.

  6. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  7. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  8. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

  9. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  10. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins.

    PubMed

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-03-07

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in 'easy' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty.

  11. Effective Scenarios for Exploring Asteroid Surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Pamela E.; Clark, C.; Weisbin, C.

    2010-10-01

    In response to the proposal that asteroids be the next targets for exploration, we attempt to develop scenarios for exploring previously mapped asteroid 433 Eros, harnessing our recent experience gained planning such activity for return to the lunar surface. The challenges faced in planning Apollo led to the development of a baseline methodology for extraterrestrial field science. What `lessons learned’ can be applied for asteroids? Effective reconnaissance (advanced mapping at <0.5 m, photos with plotted routes as in-field reference maps), training/simulating/planning (highly interactive abundant field time for extended crew), and documentation (hands-free audio and visual systematic description) procedures are still valid. The use of Constant Scale Natural Boundary rather than standard projection maps eases the challenge of navigating and interpreting a highly irregular object. Lunar and asteroid surfaces are dominated by bombardment and space radiation/dust/charged particle/regolith interactions, with similar implications for sampling. Asteroid work stations are selected on the basis of impact-induced exposure of `outcrops’ from prominent ridges (e.g., Himeros, the noses) potentially representing underlying material, supplemented by sampling of areas of especially thin or deep regolith (ponds). Unlike the Moon, an asteroid lacks sufficient gravity and most likely the necessary stability to support `normal’ driving or walking. In fact, the crew delivery vehicle might not even be `tetherable’ and would most likely `station keep’ to maintain a position. The most convenient local mobility mechanism for astronauts/robots would be `hand over hand’ above the surface at a field station supplemented by a `tetherless’ (small rocket-pack) control system for changing station or return to vehicle. Thus, we assume similar mobility constraints (meters to hundreds of meters at a local station, kilometers between stations) as those used for Apollo. We also assume

  12. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increasemore » the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.« less

  13. Inflationary universe in deformed phase space scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasouli, S. M. M.; Saba, Nasim; Farhoudi, Mehrdad; Marto, João; Moniz, P. V.

    2018-06-01

    We consider a noncommutative (NC) inflationary model with a homogeneous scalar field minimally coupled to gravity. The particular NC inflationary setting herein proposed, produces entirely new consequences as summarized in what follows. We first analyze the free field case and subsequently examine the situation where the scalar field is subjected to a polynomial and exponential potentials. We propose to use a canonical deformation between momenta, in a spatially flat Friedmann-Lemaî tre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) universe, and while the Friedmann equation (Hamiltonian constraint) remains unaffected the Friedmann acceleration equation (and thus the Klein-Gordon equation) is modified by an extra term linear in the NC parameter. This concrete noncommutativity on the momenta allows interesting dynamics that other NC models seem not to allow. Let us be more precise. This extra term behaves as the sole explicit pressure that under the right circumstances implies a period of accelerated expansion of the universe. We find that in the absence of the scalar field potential, and in contrast with the commutative case, in which the scale factor always decelerates, we obtain an inflationary phase for small negative values of the NC parameter. Subsequently, the period of accelerated expansion is smoothly replaced by an appropriate deceleration phase providing an interesting model regarding the graceful exit problem in inflationary models. This last property is present either in the free field case or under the influence of the scalar field potentials considered here. Moreover, in the case of the free scalar field, we show that not only the horizon problem is solved but also there is some resemblance between the evolution equation of the scale factor associated to our model and that for the R2 (Starobinsky) inflationary model. Therefore, our herein NC model not only can be taken as an appropriate scenario to get a successful kinetic inflation, but also is a convenient setting to

  14. Open Scenario Study, Phase I. Volume 3. Questionnaire Response

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    a conceptual framework to assist users to grasp new ideas. As the concepts are used by a broad community and internationally, classified scenarios are...framework to assist users to grasp new ideas. As the concepts are used by a broad community and internationally, classified scenarios are not necessary for...from other sources Comment: Normally have an old version that we can update. Occasionally we’ve had to develop new scenarios - the SSSP for example - we

  15. Prospective scenarios of nuclear energy evolution over the 21. century

    SciTech Connect

    Massara, S.; Tetart, P.; Garzenne, C.

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, different world scenarios of nuclear energy development over the 21. century are analyzed, by means of the EDF fuel cycle simulation code for nuclear scenario studies, TIRELIRE - STRATEGIE. Three nuclear demand scenarios are considered, and the performance of different nuclear strategies in satisfying these scenarios is analyzed and discussed, focusing on natural uranium consumption and industrial requirements related to the nuclear reactors and the associated fuel cycle facilities. Both thermal-spectrum systems (Pressurized Water Reactor and High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor) and Fast Reactors are investigated. (authors)

  16. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  17. Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

    2018-04-01

    Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

  18. Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchicalmore » clustering approach.« less

  19. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  20. Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two

  1. Simulation of groundwater flow and pumping scenarios for 1900–2050 near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fine, Jason M.; Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

    2017-10-31

    Groundwater withdrawals from the Upper Cretaceous-age Middendorf aquifer in South Carolina have created a large, regional cone of depression in the potentiometric surface of the Middendorf aquifer in Charleston and Berkeley Counties, South Carolina. Groundwater-level declines of as much as 249 feet have been observed in wells over the past 125 years and are a result of groundwater use for public water supply, irrigation, and private industry. To address the concerns of users of the Middendorf aquifer, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Mount Pleasant Waterworks (MPW), recalibrated an existing groundwater-flow model to incorporate additional groundwater-use and water-level data since 2008. This recalibration process consisted of a technique of parameter estimation that uses regularized inversion and employs “pilot points” for spatial hydraulic property characterization. The groundwater-flow system of the Coastal Plain physiographic province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina was simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference computer code MODFLOW-2000.After the model recalibration, the following six predictive water-management scenarios were created to simulate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area: Scenario 1—maximize MPW reverse-osmosis plant capacity by increasing groundwater withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), which was the amount withdrawn in 2015, to 8.58 Mgal/d; Scenario 2—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 0.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 3—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 1.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 4—maximize MPW well capacity by increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 10.16 Mgal

  2. Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

    PubMed

    Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

    2017-11-01

    Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

  3. Future possible crop yield scenarios under multiple SSP and RCP scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakurai, G.; Yokozawa, M.; Nishimori, M.; Okada, M.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the effect of future climate change on global crop yields is one of the most important tasks for global food security. Future crop yields would be influenced by climatic factors such as the changes of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. On the other hand, the effect of the changes of agricultural technologies such as crop varieties, pesticide and fertilizer input on crop yields have large uncertainty. However, not much is available on the contribution ratio of each factor under the future climate change scenario. We estimated the future global yields of four major crops (maize, soybean, rice and wheat) under three Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For this purpose, firstly, we estimated a parameter of a process based model (PRYSBI2) using a Bayesian method for each 1.125 degree spatial grid. The model parameter is relevant to the agricultural technology (we call "technological parameter" here after). Then, we analyzed the relationship between the values of technological parameter and GDP values. We found that the estimated values of the technological parameter were positively correlated with the GDP. Using the estimated relationship, we predicted future crop yield during 2020 and 2100 under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios and RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The estimated crop yields were different among SSP scenarios. However, we found that the yield difference attributable to SSPs were smaller than those attributable to CO2 fertilization effects and climate change. Particularly, the estimated effect of the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on global yields was more than four times larger than that of GDP for C3 crops.

  4. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  5. Vaccination Strategies: a comparative study in an epidemic scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prates, D. B.; Jardim, C. L. T. F.; Ferreira, L. A. F.; da Silva, J. M.; Kritz, M. V.

    2016-08-01

    Epidemics are an extremely important matter of study within the Mathematical Modeling area and can be widely found in the literature. Some epidemiological models use differential equations, which are very sensible to parameters, to represent and describe the diseases mathematically. For this work, a variation of the SIR model is discussed and applied to a certain epidemic scenario, wherein vaccination is introduced through two different strategies: constant vaccination and vaccination in pulses. Other epidemiological and population aspects are also considered, such as mortality/natality and infection rates. The analysis and results are performed through numerical solutions of the model and a special attention is given to the discussion generated by the paramenters variation.

  6. Scenarios for Evolving Seismic Crises: Possible Communication Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steacy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Recent advances in operational earthquake forecasting mean that we are very close to being able to confidently compute changes in earthquake probability as seismic crises develop. For instance, we now have statistical models such as ETAS and STEP which demonstrate considerable skill in forecasting earthquake rates and recent advances in Coulomb based models are also showing much promise. Communicating changes in earthquake probability is likely be very difficult, however, as the absolute probability of a damaging event is likely to remain quite small despite a significant increase in the relative value. Here, we use a hybrid Coulomb/statistical model to compute probability changes for a series of earthquake scenarios in New Zealand. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the forecasts and suggest a number of possible mechanisms that might be used to communicate results in an actual developing seismic crisis.

  7. Hamilton-Jacobi formalism to warm inflationary scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayar, K.; Mohammadi, A.; Akhtari, L.; Saaidi, Kh.

    2017-01-01

    The Hamilton-Jacobi formalism as a powerful method is being utilized to reconsider the warm inflationary scenario, where the scalar field as the main component driving inflation interacts with other fields. Separating the context into strong and weak dissipative regimes, the goal is followed for two popular functions of Γ . Applying slow-rolling approximation, the required perturbation parameters are extracted and, by comparing to the latest Planck data, the free parameters are restricted. The possibility of producing an acceptable inflation is studied where the result shows that for all cases the model could successfully suggest the amplitude of scalar perturbation, scalar spectral index, its running, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  8. Nuclear power for the future: Implications of some crisis scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, K.H.

    1996-12-31

    As energy issues have dropped from public awareness, electricity demand growth has remained low, deregulation has destabilized the utility decision process, and least-cost regulation has pointed utilities to gas-fired plants for those additions that are coming on-line, the nuclear power industry has begun to ask the question: What will cause nuclear energy to again compete as an option in new, domestic generating capacity additions? Since virtually all of today`s corporate and societal decisions are driven by short-term factors, the preceding question can be translated into: What crisis might occur that would project nuclear as the solution to an immediately perceivedmore » problem? Thus, an examination of scenarios that would project nuclear power into the country`s immediate consciousness is in order, along with an analysis of the implications for and challenges to the nuclear industry resulting therefrom. This paper undertakes such an analysis.« less

  9. Assessing uncertainty in radar measurements on simplified meteorological scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Rebora, N.; Siccardi, F.

    2006-02-01

    A three-dimensional radar simulator model (RSM) developed by Haase (1998) is coupled with the nonhydrostatic mesoscale weather forecast model Lokal-Modell (LM). The radar simulator is able to model reflectivity measurements by using the following meteorological fields, generated by Lokal Modell, as inputs: temperature, pressure, water vapour content, cloud water content, cloud ice content, rain sedimentation flux and snow sedimentation flux. This work focuses on the assessment of some uncertainty sources associated with radar measurements: absorption by the atmospheric gases, e.g., molecular oxygen, water vapour, and nitrogen; attenuation due to the presence of a highly reflecting structure between the radar and a "target structure". RSM results for a simplified meteorological scenario, consisting of a humid updraft on a flat surface and four cells placed around it, are presented.

  10. Polarized structure functions in a constituent quark scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scopetta, Sergio; Vento, Vicente; Traini, Marco

    1998-12-01

    Using a simple picture of the constituent quark as a composite system of point-like partons, we construct the polarized parton distributions by a convolution between constituent quark momentum distributions and constituent quark structure functions. Using unpolarized data to fix the parameters we achieve good agreement with the polarization experiments for the proton, while not so for the neutron. By relaxing our assumptions for the sea distributions, we define new quark functions for the polarized case, which reproduce well the proton data and are in better agreement with the neutron data. When our results are compared with similar calculations using non-composite constituent quarks the accord with the experiments of the present scheme is impressive. We conclude that, also in the polarized case, DIS data are consistent with a low energy scenario dominated by composite constituents of the nucleon.

  11. Thermal effects and sudden decay approximation in the curvaton scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kitajima, Naoya; Takesako, Tomohiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro

    2014-10-01

    We study the impact of a temperature-dependent curvaton decay rate on the primordial curvature perturbation generated in the curvaton scenario. Using the familiar sudden decay approximation, we obtain an analytical expression for the curvature perturbation after the decay of the curvaton. We then investigate numerically the evolution of the background and of the perturbations during the decay. We first show that the instantaneous transfer coefficient, related to the curvaton energy fraction at the decay, can be extended into a more general parameter, which depends on the net transfer of the curvaton energy into radiation energy or, equivalently, on the totalmore » entropy ratio after the complete curvaton decay. We then compute the curvature perturbation and compare this result with the sudden decay approximation prediction.« less

  12. Reflux physics and an operational scenario for the spheromak

    SciTech Connect

    Hooper, E. B.

    2010-07-20

    The spheromak [1] is a toroidal magnetic confinement geometry for plasma with most of the magnetic field generated by internal currents. It has been demonstrated to have excellent energy confinement properties: A peak electron temperature of 0.4 keV was achieved in the Compact Torus Experiment (CTX) experiment [2] and of 0.5 keV in the Sustained Spheromak Physics Experiment (SSPX) [3]. In both cases the plasmas were decaying slowly following formation and (in SSPX) sustainment by coaxial helicity injection (CHI) [4]. In SSPX, power balance analysis during this operational phase yielded electron thermal conductivities in the core plasma in the rangemore » of 1-10 m 2/s [5, 6], comparable to the tokamak L-mode. These results motivate the consideration of possible operating scenarios for future fusion experiments or even reactors.« less

  13. [Forced displacement, childhood and adolescence: scenarios regarding socioeconomic stability].

    PubMed

    Patiño, Gonzalo A; Herrán, Oscar F

    2012-06-01

    Describing and analysing socio-economic stabilisation scenarios for populations which have been forcibly displaced paying special attention to the situation of children and adolescents. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) multi-criteria decision-making method developed by Professor Thomas Saaty was used through expert workshops, involving researchers, leaders of NGOs and displaced communities living in the city of Bucaramanga. The partial result of this research showed that some elderly adults from forcibly displaced communities preferred to adapt themselves to urban centres, rather than return to their places of origin, particularly when it came to protecting younger children and dealing with their welfare. The method's consistency index and consistency ratio came within the expected parameters. Government-promoted social and economic stabilisation programmes must be rethought regarding forcibly displaced populations, particularly when situations are envisaged involving the welfare of children and adolescents.

  14. Earthquake Loss Scenarios in the Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, M.; Gupta, S.; Rosset, P.; Chamlagain, D.

    2017-12-01

    are subject to errors due to the many unknowns. Nevertheless, the order of magnitude of the disasters we estimate is correct as has been shown by the fact that 2 out of 7 Himalayan disaster scenarios published in March 2005 came true within factors of about 2.5 (the consequences of the 2005 Kashmir and the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes.)

  15. Testing inflation and curvaton scenarios with CMB distortions

    SciTech Connect

    Clesse, Sébastien; Garbrecht, Björn; Zhu, Yi, E-mail: s.clesse@tum.de, E-mail: garbrecht@tum.de, E-mail: yi.zhu@tum.de

    2014-10-01

    Prior to recombination, Silk damping causes the dissipation of energy from acoustic waves into the monopole of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), resulting in spectral distortions. These can be used to probe the primordial scalar power spectrum on smaller scales than it is possible with CMB anisotropies. An enhancement of power on these scales is nevertheless required for the resulting distortions to be detectable by future experiments like PIXIE. In this paper, we examine all 49 single-field inflation models listed by Martin e